<instructions>Your goal is to analyze the following comment and estimate how highly it will be upvoted by the Hacker News community.</instructions><comment><author>btilly</author><text>&lt;i&gt;We know it&amp;#x27;s deadly but not that deadly. The numbers from Korea, Italy and the Diamond princess are not good but they are not world-ending either. They are painful but that&amp;#x27;s it.&lt;/i&gt;&lt;p&gt;I am unclear on what you mean by &amp;quot;not that deadly&amp;quot;.  So let&amp;#x27;s discuss exactly how deadly we are talking about.&lt;p&gt;However &lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.thelancet.com&amp;#x2F;journals&amp;#x2F;laninf&amp;#x2F;article&amp;#x2F;PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7&amp;#x2F;fulltext&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.thelancet.com&amp;#x2F;journals&amp;#x2F;laninf&amp;#x2F;article&amp;#x2F;PIIS1473-3...&lt;/a&gt; is a research paper published 2 days ago.  Their median estimate for the infection fatality rate is 0.66%.  Which, applied to the US population, suggests on the order of 2 million deaths.  (More if everyone gets it, probably a bit less since only most of us would be likely to get it.)&lt;p&gt;If half the world population gets it, make that about 20 million.  Or about a third of the total deaths in WW 2.&lt;p&gt;These kinds of evidence based numbers are rather worse than I would describe as, &amp;quot;...painful but that&amp;#x27;s it.&amp;quot;  But maybe your standards are different than mine.</text><parent_chain><item><author>csomar</author><text>&amp;gt;  What number of deaths would it take to convince you to agree to a 3-4 month shutdown?&lt;p&gt;None. You are either ready for a massive shutdown or you are not. I actually was convinced of the shutdown until just a couple days ago. Things start to break. Your car insurance might expire. Your heater might go down but there is no one to repair it. Cabin fever (even though I&amp;#x27;m an introvert and probably handling it better than most people out there). Some people are stuck in one place and need to move to another place.&lt;p&gt;As time goes by, I can see more and more people changing to the opinion that this was a bad idea. They are not ready and the shutdown risk completely devastating their life or worse.&lt;p&gt;&amp;gt; What qualifications do you have to assume this virus might kill 100k and not 10 million? Are you ok with 10 million?&lt;p&gt;We know it&amp;#x27;s deadly but not that deadly. The numbers from Korea, Italy and the Diamond princess are not good but they are not world-ending either. They are painful but that&amp;#x27;s it.&lt;p&gt;&amp;gt; Assuming you have friends who have elderly parents, are you ok with visiting them to tell them they are likely to die but it&amp;#x27;s for a good cause - &amp;#x27;the economy&amp;#x27;.&lt;p&gt;I have elderly parents. The guideline is that they stay at home. They have a garden, a couple dogs and enough food. But at some point I expect that they&amp;#x27;ll probably be okay with the risk and seeing me rather than spending 2 year confined with no human contact.</text></item><item><author>alexashka</author><text>What number of deaths would it take to convince you to agree to a 3-4 month shutdown?&lt;p&gt;What qualifications do you have to assume this virus might kill 100k and not 10 million? Are you ok with 10 million?&lt;p&gt;Assuming you have friends who have elderly parents, are you ok with visiting them to tell them they are likely to die but it&amp;#x27;s for a good cause - &amp;#x27;the economy&amp;#x27;.</text></item><item><author>csomar</author><text>I live in a country going through the second week of Shutdown. This is simply stupid and irresponsible. Unlike China which had a limited regional shutdown and where the government controlled lots of everyday life; most of the other countries are running with the private sector.&lt;p&gt;A 3-4 months shutdown is going to bankrupt pretty much everyone. Those who were running thin but also those who were saving a bit. Unless you have a 1 year expenses upfront and probably own your house in your name, you are going bankrupt and will be relying on the government for help.&lt;p&gt;Next we are going to see massive disruption for pretty much everything and every consumer good. This is a good opportunity for government intervention and for government (or Big Co) to own pretty much everything.&lt;p&gt;The virus might kill 100k in the US (or millions) let&amp;#x27;s just assume that cost and prepare for a future outbreak.</text></item></parent_chain></comment><story><title>Bill Gates calls for nationwide shutdown</title><url>https://thehill.com/policy/technology/490523-bill-gates-calls-for-nationwide-shutdown-shutdown-anywhere-means-shutdown</url></story>
<instructions>Your goal is to analyze the following comment and estimate how highly it will be upvoted by the Hacker News community.</instructions><comment><author>ceejayoz</author><text>&amp;gt; Your car insurance might expire.&lt;p&gt;Do it online, or over the phone. (I just did!) New York is waiving things like annual car inspections and registration renewals, as well.&lt;p&gt;&amp;gt; Your heater might go down but there is no one to repair it.&lt;p&gt;Most of the shutdown implementations permit emergency repairs and grocery&amp;#x2F;medicine shopping.</text><parent_chain><item><author>csomar</author><text>&amp;gt;  What number of deaths would it take to convince you to agree to a 3-4 month shutdown?&lt;p&gt;None. You are either ready for a massive shutdown or you are not. I actually was convinced of the shutdown until just a couple days ago. Things start to break. Your car insurance might expire. Your heater might go down but there is no one to repair it. Cabin fever (even though I&amp;#x27;m an introvert and probably handling it better than most people out there). Some people are stuck in one place and need to move to another place.&lt;p&gt;As time goes by, I can see more and more people changing to the opinion that this was a bad idea. They are not ready and the shutdown risk completely devastating their life or worse.&lt;p&gt;&amp;gt; What qualifications do you have to assume this virus might kill 100k and not 10 million? Are you ok with 10 million?&lt;p&gt;We know it&amp;#x27;s deadly but not that deadly. The numbers from Korea, Italy and the Diamond princess are not good but they are not world-ending either. They are painful but that&amp;#x27;s it.&lt;p&gt;&amp;gt; Assuming you have friends who have elderly parents, are you ok with visiting them to tell them they are likely to die but it&amp;#x27;s for a good cause - &amp;#x27;the economy&amp;#x27;.&lt;p&gt;I have elderly parents. The guideline is that they stay at home. They have a garden, a couple dogs and enough food. But at some point I expect that they&amp;#x27;ll probably be okay with the risk and seeing me rather than spending 2 year confined with no human contact.</text></item><item><author>alexashka</author><text>What number of deaths would it take to convince you to agree to a 3-4 month shutdown?&lt;p&gt;What qualifications do you have to assume this virus might kill 100k and not 10 million? Are you ok with 10 million?&lt;p&gt;Assuming you have friends who have elderly parents, are you ok with visiting them to tell them they are likely to die but it&amp;#x27;s for a good cause - &amp;#x27;the economy&amp;#x27;.</text></item><item><author>csomar</author><text>I live in a country going through the second week of Shutdown. This is simply stupid and irresponsible. Unlike China which had a limited regional shutdown and where the government controlled lots of everyday life; most of the other countries are running with the private sector.&lt;p&gt;A 3-4 months shutdown is going to bankrupt pretty much everyone. Those who were running thin but also those who were saving a bit. Unless you have a 1 year expenses upfront and probably own your house in your name, you are going bankrupt and will be relying on the government for help.&lt;p&gt;Next we are going to see massive disruption for pretty much everything and every consumer good. This is a good opportunity for government intervention and for government (or Big Co) to own pretty much everything.&lt;p&gt;The virus might kill 100k in the US (or millions) let&amp;#x27;s just assume that cost and prepare for a future outbreak.</text></item></parent_chain></comment><story><title>Bill Gates calls for nationwide shutdown</title><url>https://thehill.com/policy/technology/490523-bill-gates-calls-for-nationwide-shutdown-shutdown-anywhere-means-shutdown</url></story>