<instructions>Your goal is to analyze the following comment and estimate how highly it will be upvoted by the Hacker News community.</instructions><comment><author>_moof</author><text>An increase in the frequency of clear air turbulence doesn&amp;#x27;t necessarily entail an increase in reportable accidents and incidents. The NTSB is only notified when a specific set of criteria are met. See 49 CFR Part 830 for details. If the increase in turbulence is all light to moderate turbulence with no serious injuries, there&amp;#x27;s nothing to report to the NTSB.</text><parent_chain><item><author>w14</author><text>This does not seem to be borne out by the accident statistics, which apparently show no trend in turbulence related accidents. (&lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.ntsb.gov&amp;#x2F;safety&amp;#x2F;safety-studies&amp;#x2F;Documents&amp;#x2F;SS2101.pdf&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.ntsb.gov&amp;#x2F;safety&amp;#x2F;safety-studies&amp;#x2F;Documents&amp;#x2F;SS2101....&lt;/a&gt;)&lt;p&gt;I don&amp;#x27;t know if there are other factors which might be masking a rise in incidence of CAT from accident stats?</text></item></parent_chain></comment><story><title>Is Clear Air Turbulence becoming more common?</title><url>https://www.flightradar24.com/blog/is-cat-more-common/</url></story>
<instructions>Your goal is to analyze the following comment and estimate how highly it will be upvoted by the Hacker News community.</instructions><comment><author>ImaCake</author><text>Certainly no detectable trend in that data. But the accident frequency is so low that the random variation dominates and makes it impossible to distinguish any trend.&lt;p&gt;What is demonstrably increasing is CAT, due to climate change. But considering how infrequent these incidents are we might not see a clear increase for several decades.</text><parent_chain><item><author>w14</author><text>This does not seem to be borne out by the accident statistics, which apparently show no trend in turbulence related accidents. (&lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.ntsb.gov&amp;#x2F;safety&amp;#x2F;safety-studies&amp;#x2F;Documents&amp;#x2F;SS2101.pdf&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.ntsb.gov&amp;#x2F;safety&amp;#x2F;safety-studies&amp;#x2F;Documents&amp;#x2F;SS2101....&lt;/a&gt;)&lt;p&gt;I don&amp;#x27;t know if there are other factors which might be masking a rise in incidence of CAT from accident stats?</text></item></parent_chain></comment><story><title>Is Clear Air Turbulence becoming more common?</title><url>https://www.flightradar24.com/blog/is-cat-more-common/</url></story>