<instructions>Your goal is to analyze the following comment and estimate how highly it will be upvoted by the Hacker News community.</instructions><comment><author>Arjuna</author><text>&lt;i&gt;&amp;quot;The only way we&amp;#x27;ll get to understand that is by finding the black box which of course would explain the whole thing anyway.&amp;quot;&lt;/i&gt;&lt;p&gt;I appreciate that there are technical challenges and costs associated with the following idea, but it would be quite an interesting project to create a system that would transmit Flight Data Recorder (FDR) information to a ground location.&lt;p&gt;Off the top of my head, it would need to be flexible, perhaps recording more detailed telemetry in cases where cellular networks were available, to being able to provide critical, but perhaps less-detailed telemetry, in cases where only satellite communications were available. In addition, data monitoring systems could be programmed with the intelligence to transmit more detailed telemetry in the event of an anomaly (e.g., the &amp;quot;left turn&amp;quot; with regard to MH370). This would be an attempt to find the right balance of data fidelity, with regard to available transmission capabilities and associated costs.&lt;p&gt;Sadly, as it is now, we are left with relying on essentially locating the proverbial &amp;quot;needle in a haystack&amp;quot; with regard to locating the FDR. Another example is the case with AF447 [1]. Although the FDR was recovered, it was not until nearly 2 years after the incident.&lt;p&gt;My heart goes out to those that lost loved ones. Not having closure is an extremely painful and difficult process to endure.&lt;p&gt;[1] &lt;a href=&quot;https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_France_Flight_447&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&amp;#x2F;wiki&amp;#x2F;Air_France_Flight_447&lt;/a&gt;</text><parent_chain><item><author>PaulRobinson</author><text>Sequence of events this implies when coupled with other information:&lt;p&gt;1. Electrical fire starts, takes out ADS-B transponder, pilots unaware and continue the flight as normal
2. They radio a goodbye as they leave ATC, still unaware of anything which means that a fire has taken out a transponder and they are unaware of that fact
3. The fire is discovered. The crew put on full-face oxygen masks and the pilot makes for that airport either by dialling in a bearing into the autopilot or disengaging it and flying for it.
4. They attempt communication but fail because the systems are out due to the fire&lt;p&gt;At that point, we then have a lot of things to consider: was it pilot input or autopilot that took them to FL450? When did the pilots lose the ability to land, either because of control surface damage or because they were incapacitated? In the event of being alive but unable to fly the aircraft because control surfaces were no longer responsive to cockpit or autopilot input, is there anything else they could&amp;#x2F;would do other than do some maths and work out when the inevitable crash was coming? If they could control some surfaces but not others would they use that to buy themselves more time, e.g. climbing to ceiling (FL450), or would they get low quick?&lt;p&gt;This theory raises quite a few questions then, but it&amp;#x27;s a perfectly valid hypothesis: the issue for me around it is understanding why the pilots didn&amp;#x27;t go on to make the landing suggesting loss of control or their own lives by that point. The only way we&amp;#x27;ll get to understand that is by finding the black box which of course would explain the whole thing anyway.&lt;p&gt;This theory also suggests a likely ditching or crash into the water, and if that were the case then I would expect sonar operators over a large part of the region to hear the black box locator, pretty much as they did with the Air France crash.</text></item></parent_chain></comment><story><title>MH370: A different point of view</title><url>https://plus.google.com/106271056358366282907/posts/GoeVjHJaGBz</url><text>This seems like a simpler explanation.</text></story>
<instructions>Your goal is to analyze the following comment and estimate how highly it will be upvoted by the Hacker News community.</instructions><comment><author>graeham</author><text>This requires the pilots to discover the fire at the exact time when switching from Malaysian Air Traffic Control to Vietnamese Air Traffic Control.  The fire then incapacitates the radio or the pilots before they have a chance to call in the incident.  Seems overly coincidental to me.</text><parent_chain><item><author>PaulRobinson</author><text>Sequence of events this implies when coupled with other information:&lt;p&gt;1. Electrical fire starts, takes out ADS-B transponder, pilots unaware and continue the flight as normal
2. They radio a goodbye as they leave ATC, still unaware of anything which means that a fire has taken out a transponder and they are unaware of that fact
3. The fire is discovered. The crew put on full-face oxygen masks and the pilot makes for that airport either by dialling in a bearing into the autopilot or disengaging it and flying for it.
4. They attempt communication but fail because the systems are out due to the fire&lt;p&gt;At that point, we then have a lot of things to consider: was it pilot input or autopilot that took them to FL450? When did the pilots lose the ability to land, either because of control surface damage or because they were incapacitated? In the event of being alive but unable to fly the aircraft because control surfaces were no longer responsive to cockpit or autopilot input, is there anything else they could&amp;#x2F;would do other than do some maths and work out when the inevitable crash was coming? If they could control some surfaces but not others would they use that to buy themselves more time, e.g. climbing to ceiling (FL450), or would they get low quick?&lt;p&gt;This theory raises quite a few questions then, but it&amp;#x27;s a perfectly valid hypothesis: the issue for me around it is understanding why the pilots didn&amp;#x27;t go on to make the landing suggesting loss of control or their own lives by that point. The only way we&amp;#x27;ll get to understand that is by finding the black box which of course would explain the whole thing anyway.&lt;p&gt;This theory also suggests a likely ditching or crash into the water, and if that were the case then I would expect sonar operators over a large part of the region to hear the black box locator, pretty much as they did with the Air France crash.</text></item></parent_chain></comment><story><title>MH370: A different point of view</title><url>https://plus.google.com/106271056358366282907/posts/GoeVjHJaGBz</url><text>This seems like a simpler explanation.</text></story>