<instructions>Your goal is to analyze the following comment and estimate how highly it will be upvoted by the Hacker News community.</instructions><comment><author>throw0101c</author><text>&amp;gt; […] &lt;i&gt;(and Musk in general) have been over-promising and under-delivering for years now.&lt;/i&gt;&lt;p&gt;Related, &amp;quot;Tesla FSD Timeline&amp;quot;:&lt;p&gt;&amp;gt; &lt;i&gt;September 2014: They will be a factor of 10 safer than a person [at the wheel] in a six-year time frame&lt;/i&gt;&lt;p&gt;* &lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;motherfrunker.ca&amp;#x2F;fsd&amp;#x2F;&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow noreferrer&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;motherfrunker.ca&amp;#x2F;fsd&amp;#x2F;&lt;/a&gt;&lt;p&gt;* &lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&amp;#x2F;item?id=38625380&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&amp;#x2F;item?id=38625380&lt;/a&gt;  (earlier today)</text><parent_chain><item><author>mdasen</author><text>Starlink (and Musk in general) have been over-promising and under-delivering for years now. Starlink claimed 150Mbps back in 2020 and that speeds would double to 300Mbps by the end of 2021.[1] Instead, speeds have halved.[2]&lt;p&gt;At this point, T-Mobile is likely serving more rural high speed internet customers with greater speeds (T-Mobile has 4.2M home internet customers and Ookla&amp;#x27;s stats show 34% to be rural for 1.4M; Starlink has 2M customers and assuming two-thirds are in the US and of those 83% are rural would make for 1.1M).&lt;p&gt;[1] &lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.tomsguide.com&amp;#x2F;news&amp;#x2F;elon-musk-promises-to-double-starlink-satellite-broadband-speeds-this-year&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow noreferrer&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.tomsguide.com&amp;#x2F;news&amp;#x2F;elon-musk-promises-to-double-...&lt;/a&gt;&lt;p&gt;[2] &lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.ookla.com&amp;#x2F;articles&amp;#x2F;us-satellite-performance-q3-2023&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow noreferrer&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.ookla.com&amp;#x2F;articles&amp;#x2F;us-satellite-performance-q3-2...&lt;/a&gt;</text></item><item><author>I_Am_Nous</author><text>When applying for RDOF you say what service tier you are targeting and instead of shooting for the minimum 25&amp;#x2F;3, Starlink applied for 100&amp;#x2F;20. When they didn&amp;#x27;t reach those speeds[1], they were ineligible but not &lt;i&gt;just&lt;/i&gt; because they didn&amp;#x27;t hit the required speeds on their existing network. There are more details here[2] but the jist is that Starlink bid to supply 100&amp;#x2F;20 internet to over half a million subscribers and the FCC was required to assess if Starlink was reasonably, technically capable of supplying those speeds by 2025. Starlink reportedly argued that once they can properly launch Starship, they can surely hit the required speeds. As of yet Starship hasn&amp;#x27;t had a successful launch. On top of this, the statistics that were available at the time showed that Starlink transfer speeds were already trending down and the network is a lot less utilized than it would be in 2025. There are technical challenges that need to be solved before Starlink is remotely capable of meeting that obligation and the challenges don&amp;#x27;t appear to be resolved yet. Giving Starlink money is a gamble and the FCC would rather play it safe.&lt;p&gt;&amp;gt;RDOF rules set speeds of 25&amp;#x2F;3 Mbps as the minimum allowed for broadband service delivered by winners. However, participants were permitted to bid at four different performance tiers: 25&amp;#x2F;3 Mbps, 50&amp;#x2F;5 Mbps, 100&amp;#x2F;20 Mbps and 1 Gbps&amp;#x2F;500 Mbps. When the auction closed, the FCC noted 99.7% of locations were bid at 100&amp;#x2F;20 or higher, with 85% bid at the gigabit tier. That means Starlink will need to provide speeds of at least 100&amp;#x2F;20 in order to meet its obligations.&lt;p&gt;1. &lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.fiercetelecom.com&amp;#x2F;broadband&amp;#x2F;what-do-starlinks-latest-ookla-results-mean-its-886m-rdof-winnings&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow noreferrer&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.fiercetelecom.com&amp;#x2F;broadband&amp;#x2F;what-do-starlinks-la...&lt;/a&gt;&lt;p&gt;2. &lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;docs.fcc.gov&amp;#x2F;public&amp;#x2F;attachments&amp;#x2F;FCC-23-105A1.pdf&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow noreferrer&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;docs.fcc.gov&amp;#x2F;public&amp;#x2F;attachments&amp;#x2F;FCC-23-105A1.pdf&lt;/a&gt;</text></item></parent_chain></comment><story><title>US agency will not reinstate $900M subsidy for Starlink</title><url>https://www.reuters.com/technology/space/us-agency-will-not-reinstate-900-mln-subsidy-spacex-starlink-unit-2023-12-13/</url></story>
<instructions>Your goal is to analyze the following comment and estimate how highly it will be upvoted by the Hacker News community.</instructions><comment><author>chrisco255</author><text>I regularly get 150+ Mbps on my Starlink terminal. Don&amp;#x27;t really care that they didn&amp;#x27;t hit the ambitious goal of providing 300+, it is already more than 15x better than the next best option available for me.&lt;p&gt;T-Mobile has a three decade head start (maybe four if you count their Sprint Wireless acquisition&amp;#x27;s history), so hardly surprising if there is currently more T-Mobile home internet users than Starlink users. But I also doubt that their rural base is as large as Starlink&amp;#x27;s currently is. Mobile broadband speeds heavily depend on the strength of the signal available in area, and in many rural areas, the 5G coverage is extremely spotty, or non-existent.</text><parent_chain><item><author>mdasen</author><text>Starlink (and Musk in general) have been over-promising and under-delivering for years now. Starlink claimed 150Mbps back in 2020 and that speeds would double to 300Mbps by the end of 2021.[1] Instead, speeds have halved.[2]&lt;p&gt;At this point, T-Mobile is likely serving more rural high speed internet customers with greater speeds (T-Mobile has 4.2M home internet customers and Ookla&amp;#x27;s stats show 34% to be rural for 1.4M; Starlink has 2M customers and assuming two-thirds are in the US and of those 83% are rural would make for 1.1M).&lt;p&gt;[1] &lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.tomsguide.com&amp;#x2F;news&amp;#x2F;elon-musk-promises-to-double-starlink-satellite-broadband-speeds-this-year&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow noreferrer&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.tomsguide.com&amp;#x2F;news&amp;#x2F;elon-musk-promises-to-double-...&lt;/a&gt;&lt;p&gt;[2] &lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.ookla.com&amp;#x2F;articles&amp;#x2F;us-satellite-performance-q3-2023&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow noreferrer&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.ookla.com&amp;#x2F;articles&amp;#x2F;us-satellite-performance-q3-2...&lt;/a&gt;</text></item><item><author>I_Am_Nous</author><text>When applying for RDOF you say what service tier you are targeting and instead of shooting for the minimum 25&amp;#x2F;3, Starlink applied for 100&amp;#x2F;20. When they didn&amp;#x27;t reach those speeds[1], they were ineligible but not &lt;i&gt;just&lt;/i&gt; because they didn&amp;#x27;t hit the required speeds on their existing network. There are more details here[2] but the jist is that Starlink bid to supply 100&amp;#x2F;20 internet to over half a million subscribers and the FCC was required to assess if Starlink was reasonably, technically capable of supplying those speeds by 2025. Starlink reportedly argued that once they can properly launch Starship, they can surely hit the required speeds. As of yet Starship hasn&amp;#x27;t had a successful launch. On top of this, the statistics that were available at the time showed that Starlink transfer speeds were already trending down and the network is a lot less utilized than it would be in 2025. There are technical challenges that need to be solved before Starlink is remotely capable of meeting that obligation and the challenges don&amp;#x27;t appear to be resolved yet. Giving Starlink money is a gamble and the FCC would rather play it safe.&lt;p&gt;&amp;gt;RDOF rules set speeds of 25&amp;#x2F;3 Mbps as the minimum allowed for broadband service delivered by winners. However, participants were permitted to bid at four different performance tiers: 25&amp;#x2F;3 Mbps, 50&amp;#x2F;5 Mbps, 100&amp;#x2F;20 Mbps and 1 Gbps&amp;#x2F;500 Mbps. When the auction closed, the FCC noted 99.7% of locations were bid at 100&amp;#x2F;20 or higher, with 85% bid at the gigabit tier. That means Starlink will need to provide speeds of at least 100&amp;#x2F;20 in order to meet its obligations.&lt;p&gt;1. &lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.fiercetelecom.com&amp;#x2F;broadband&amp;#x2F;what-do-starlinks-latest-ookla-results-mean-its-886m-rdof-winnings&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow noreferrer&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.fiercetelecom.com&amp;#x2F;broadband&amp;#x2F;what-do-starlinks-la...&lt;/a&gt;&lt;p&gt;2. &lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;docs.fcc.gov&amp;#x2F;public&amp;#x2F;attachments&amp;#x2F;FCC-23-105A1.pdf&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow noreferrer&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;docs.fcc.gov&amp;#x2F;public&amp;#x2F;attachments&amp;#x2F;FCC-23-105A1.pdf&lt;/a&gt;</text></item></parent_chain></comment><story><title>US agency will not reinstate $900M subsidy for Starlink</title><url>https://www.reuters.com/technology/space/us-agency-will-not-reinstate-900-mln-subsidy-spacex-starlink-unit-2023-12-13/</url></story>