<instructions>Your goal is to analyze the following comment and estimate how highly it will be upvoted by the Hacker News community.</instructions><comment><author>nradov</author><text>There is no &amp;quot;shortage&amp;quot; of truckers. Never has been and never will be. New truckers can be trained in a few months. Customers and employers just don&amp;#x27;t want to pay.&lt;p&gt;Claiming that there is a shortage of workers in a particular field is generally nonsense. Is there a shortage of gold? No, I can buy as much as I want tomorrow ... at the market price.</text><parent_chain><item><author>pmcginn</author><text>I&amp;#x27;m in finished vehicle logistics, and I&amp;#x27;ve worked directly with a wide variety of truckers, including three years in California. You are very right that the amount of cargo that needs to be moved will not change because of this law, but you are, in my opinion, wrong about everything else.&lt;p&gt;I don&amp;#x27;t want to stereotype truckers because it is a diverse group. But I will say that in my anecdotal experience, this is a job that tends to attract people who want to be left alone. These are people who value freedom and hard work above everything else and many of them will change careers or retire if they are forced to work for big corporations. The average trucker is 55 years old, and many of them will just sell their and retire if AB5 is not overturned.&lt;p&gt;Supplying a $150,000 truck is not at all a barrier to entry. There is a major shortage of truckers and employers are offering free training, big sign on bonuses, and high starting pay to attract talent. Walmart, which is certainly not known for paying its employees well, pays truckers an average of almost $88,000 per year--and Walmart supplies the truck. The people spending $150,000 on a truck are doing it because they want to, not because they have to. This is not a medallion situation.&lt;p&gt;As for your &amp;quot;wink wink&amp;quot; comment, ELD&amp;#x27;s have been mandated since the end of 2017, and even companies that are small enough to not legally be compelled to use one are often forced to comply due to customer contracts. (Shippers want the data the ELD provides to offer better ETAs to their customers.)&lt;p&gt;In my opinion, the most likely outcome of this law is that some truckers retire and sell their rigs to big corporations, some decide to work for big corporations, and prices go up for everyone who ships goods or buys shipped goods. Unless you&amp;#x27;re in asset based trucking and looking to expand, the chances are that AB5 is going to hurt you, not help you.</text></item><item><author>crooked-v</author><text>The loads hauled by these truckers aren&amp;#x27;t going to magically vanish because the employment laws have changed, which would strongly suggest there will be about the same number of jobs in the end, since the same amount of work still needs to be done.&lt;p&gt;&amp;gt; Many would have to abandon $150,000 investments in clean trucks&lt;p&gt;I read this as: truckers will no longer be expect to supply their own $150,000 trucks to get into the business.&lt;p&gt;&amp;gt; and the right to set their own schedules&lt;p&gt;I read this as: truckers will no longer be expected to &amp;quot;comply with the laws, wink wink&amp;quot; to meet impossible schedules in ways that legally aren&amp;#x27;t the contracting company&amp;#x27;s fault.</text></item></parent_chain></comment><story><title>Truckers sue California, say new gig economy law would kill 70k jobs</title><url>https://www.foxbusiness.com/money/truckers-sue-california-say-new-gig-economy-law-would-kill-70000-jobs</url></story>
<instructions>Your goal is to analyze the following comment and estimate how highly it will be upvoted by the Hacker News community.</instructions><comment><author>BurningFrog</author><text>Note that if trucking prices do go up, the amount of cargo that gets moved &lt;i&gt;will&lt;/i&gt; go down.</text><parent_chain><item><author>pmcginn</author><text>I&amp;#x27;m in finished vehicle logistics, and I&amp;#x27;ve worked directly with a wide variety of truckers, including three years in California. You are very right that the amount of cargo that needs to be moved will not change because of this law, but you are, in my opinion, wrong about everything else.&lt;p&gt;I don&amp;#x27;t want to stereotype truckers because it is a diverse group. But I will say that in my anecdotal experience, this is a job that tends to attract people who want to be left alone. These are people who value freedom and hard work above everything else and many of them will change careers or retire if they are forced to work for big corporations. The average trucker is 55 years old, and many of them will just sell their and retire if AB5 is not overturned.&lt;p&gt;Supplying a $150,000 truck is not at all a barrier to entry. There is a major shortage of truckers and employers are offering free training, big sign on bonuses, and high starting pay to attract talent. Walmart, which is certainly not known for paying its employees well, pays truckers an average of almost $88,000 per year--and Walmart supplies the truck. The people spending $150,000 on a truck are doing it because they want to, not because they have to. This is not a medallion situation.&lt;p&gt;As for your &amp;quot;wink wink&amp;quot; comment, ELD&amp;#x27;s have been mandated since the end of 2017, and even companies that are small enough to not legally be compelled to use one are often forced to comply due to customer contracts. (Shippers want the data the ELD provides to offer better ETAs to their customers.)&lt;p&gt;In my opinion, the most likely outcome of this law is that some truckers retire and sell their rigs to big corporations, some decide to work for big corporations, and prices go up for everyone who ships goods or buys shipped goods. Unless you&amp;#x27;re in asset based trucking and looking to expand, the chances are that AB5 is going to hurt you, not help you.</text></item><item><author>crooked-v</author><text>The loads hauled by these truckers aren&amp;#x27;t going to magically vanish because the employment laws have changed, which would strongly suggest there will be about the same number of jobs in the end, since the same amount of work still needs to be done.&lt;p&gt;&amp;gt; Many would have to abandon $150,000 investments in clean trucks&lt;p&gt;I read this as: truckers will no longer be expect to supply their own $150,000 trucks to get into the business.&lt;p&gt;&amp;gt; and the right to set their own schedules&lt;p&gt;I read this as: truckers will no longer be expected to &amp;quot;comply with the laws, wink wink&amp;quot; to meet impossible schedules in ways that legally aren&amp;#x27;t the contracting company&amp;#x27;s fault.</text></item></parent_chain></comment><story><title>Truckers sue California, say new gig economy law would kill 70k jobs</title><url>https://www.foxbusiness.com/money/truckers-sue-california-say-new-gig-economy-law-would-kill-70000-jobs</url></story>