<instructions>Your goal is to analyze the following comment and estimate how highly it will be upvoted by the Hacker News community.</instructions><comment><author>tablespoon</author><text>&amp;gt; Wargames are designed to be lost. It&amp;#x27;s not as useful to say &amp;quot;welp we stomped all over them&amp;quot; as it is to push the forces being tested further and further until they break, then fixing or compensating where it broke and pushing even further.&lt;p&gt;Wasn&amp;#x27;t there a pretty famous case, in a wargame meant to simulate conflict with Iran, where the red team general actually played to win but the game leaders reset things with new constraints that played to US advantages?&lt;p&gt;There are also pretty significant intrinsic problems with a Taiwan strait conflict: it&amp;#x27;s literally in China&amp;#x27;s backyard and the PLA is modernizing so the US can no longer rely on having an overwhelming technological advantage.  IIRC, Taiwan&amp;#x27;s military strategy also assumes that they&amp;#x27;ll have a technological over the PRC, so they haven&amp;#x27;t embraced asymmetric tactics as much as they should.&lt;p&gt;From my armchair, it seems to me that Taiwan needs to adopt something like the Israeli model, where pretty much their whole population is in the reserves and can be mobilized quickly for a conflict.  The US needs to figure out a way to reinforce and resupply it, and disentangle its supply chains from China to make that workable.&lt;p&gt;However, I&amp;#x27;m not hopeful with the kind of leadership we have now.  It&amp;#x27;s thinking is too short term and it&amp;#x27;s unwilling to make any really costly commitments.</text><parent_chain><item><author>ranger207</author><text>Wargames are designed to be lost. It&amp;#x27;s not as useful to say &amp;quot;welp we stomped all over them&amp;quot; as it is to push the forces being tested further and further until they break, then fixing or compensating where it broke and pushing even further. Wargames aren&amp;#x27;t constrained by reality, and the game&amp;#x27;s opposing force may be more powerful than in reality. Just hearing that the US lost a wargame doesn&amp;#x27;t mean anything without knowing more details. Think of a wargame as the military&amp;#x27;s version of a pentest.</text></item><item><author>gogopuppygogo</author><text>The USA has been losing all war games where it defends Tawain against China.&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;nypost.com&amp;#x2F;2021&amp;#x2F;03&amp;#x2F;11&amp;#x2F;us-war-games-over-china-threat-warn-of-likely-defeat-report&amp;#x2F;&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;nypost.com&amp;#x2F;2021&amp;#x2F;03&amp;#x2F;11&amp;#x2F;us-war-games-over-china-threat...&lt;/a&gt;&lt;p&gt;It is not okay to assume USA supremacy against adversaries anymore.&lt;p&gt;Why Americans still do business with China is astounding to me.</text></item><item><author>yodsanklai</author><text>The amount of effort China is putting to sabotage Taiwan independence is astonishing. I have Taiwanese relatives and I&amp;#x27;m very worried for them.</text></item><item><author>yuy910616</author><text>Really reminds me of the Taiwan election commercial that compares Taiwan and Hong Kong
&lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.youtube.com&amp;#x2F;watch?v=ykcVIQMrc4A&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.youtube.com&amp;#x2F;watch?v=ykcVIQMrc4A&lt;/a&gt;</text></item><item><author>kunagi7</author><text>The Chinese Government is speeding up their efforts to swallow Hong Kong and Macau into the Mainland.&lt;p&gt;Closing the media outlets, museums, websites that speak against them. And a few key people get abducted here and there to scare more people and force them to accept the Beijing Regime. But... The people from Hong Kong still demonstrates and tries to fight for their lost rights.</text></item></parent_chain></comment><story><title>Hong Kong: Police Raid Tiananmen Square Museum</title><url>https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-58506598</url></story>
<instructions>Your goal is to analyze the following comment and estimate how highly it will be upvoted by the Hacker News community.</instructions><comment><author>Aeolun</author><text>I mean, they’re playing a wargame against themselves, so technically they won too.</text><parent_chain><item><author>ranger207</author><text>Wargames are designed to be lost. It&amp;#x27;s not as useful to say &amp;quot;welp we stomped all over them&amp;quot; as it is to push the forces being tested further and further until they break, then fixing or compensating where it broke and pushing even further. Wargames aren&amp;#x27;t constrained by reality, and the game&amp;#x27;s opposing force may be more powerful than in reality. Just hearing that the US lost a wargame doesn&amp;#x27;t mean anything without knowing more details. Think of a wargame as the military&amp;#x27;s version of a pentest.</text></item><item><author>gogopuppygogo</author><text>The USA has been losing all war games where it defends Tawain against China.&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;nypost.com&amp;#x2F;2021&amp;#x2F;03&amp;#x2F;11&amp;#x2F;us-war-games-over-china-threat-warn-of-likely-defeat-report&amp;#x2F;&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;nypost.com&amp;#x2F;2021&amp;#x2F;03&amp;#x2F;11&amp;#x2F;us-war-games-over-china-threat...&lt;/a&gt;&lt;p&gt;It is not okay to assume USA supremacy against adversaries anymore.&lt;p&gt;Why Americans still do business with China is astounding to me.</text></item><item><author>yodsanklai</author><text>The amount of effort China is putting to sabotage Taiwan independence is astonishing. I have Taiwanese relatives and I&amp;#x27;m very worried for them.</text></item><item><author>yuy910616</author><text>Really reminds me of the Taiwan election commercial that compares Taiwan and Hong Kong
&lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.youtube.com&amp;#x2F;watch?v=ykcVIQMrc4A&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.youtube.com&amp;#x2F;watch?v=ykcVIQMrc4A&lt;/a&gt;</text></item><item><author>kunagi7</author><text>The Chinese Government is speeding up their efforts to swallow Hong Kong and Macau into the Mainland.&lt;p&gt;Closing the media outlets, museums, websites that speak against them. And a few key people get abducted here and there to scare more people and force them to accept the Beijing Regime. But... The people from Hong Kong still demonstrates and tries to fight for their lost rights.</text></item></parent_chain></comment><story><title>Hong Kong: Police Raid Tiananmen Square Museum</title><url>https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-58506598</url></story>