<instructions>Your goal is to analyze the following comment and estimate how highly it will be upvoted by the Hacker News community.</instructions><comment><author>djoko_research</author><text>Intro:
Looking at covid19.rs&amp;#x2F;homepage-english&amp;#x2F; I can see that there was a total of 1.444.532 people tested and the data is marked for 10.01.2022 at 15:00.&lt;p&gt;This is exactly the same as here:
&lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;ourworldindata.org&amp;#x2F;coronavirus&amp;#x2F;country&amp;#x2F;serbia&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;ourworldindata.org&amp;#x2F;coronavirus&amp;#x2F;country&amp;#x2F;serbia&lt;/a&gt;&lt;p&gt;So I&amp;#x27;m assuming that this dataset can be trusted.&lt;p&gt;The point:&lt;p&gt;From the dataset:
Date: 2021-12-16, new tests: 13690.0, total tests: 7032035.0
Date: 2021-12-22, new tests: 14808.0, total tests: 7107851.0
Date: 2021-12-26, new tests: 9265.0, total tests: 7158932.0&lt;p&gt;As We can see Djoko&amp;#x27;s &amp;quot;ID&amp;quot; (7371999) is much larger than total number of tests for 26th of December 2021 (by 213067) and for me this furthers your point that We don&amp;#x27;t know how this number is generated.
(It seems to be sequential, but is it?)</text><parent_chain><item><author>grujicd</author><text>I have 2 more datapoints. My wife went with me to the testing on the same date. If you&amp;#x27;re negative on rapid test, they usually take PCR as well. Since she was negative on the first one, there was a PCR too. These are her QR urls:&lt;p&gt;Rapid test:&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;pcr.euprava.gov.rs&amp;#x2F;validate.php?cqcode=16415703349MJi4QNr3Ohxz3cgzFrtDBM4CSNHfigF$tg4AiN4YoVJSPtDUO&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;pcr.euprava.gov.rs&amp;#x2F;validate.php?cqcode=16415703349MJ...&lt;/a&gt;&lt;p&gt;Timestamp: 1641570334, time: GMT: Friday, 7. January 2022. 15:45:34&lt;p&gt;PCR:&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;pcr.euprava.gov.rs&amp;#x2F;validate.php?cqcode=1641924832NyL5YS!wsSf!8sEKBcvi!hpbktN2TKm8BJv11xGmKwndWBeXvj&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;pcr.euprava.gov.rs&amp;#x2F;validate.php?cqcode=1641924832NyL...&lt;/a&gt;&lt;p&gt;Timestamp: 1641924832, time: GMT: Tuesday, 11. January 2022. 18:13:52&lt;p&gt;I downloaded PCR from portal today, that&amp;#x27;s why it has today&amp;#x27;s timestamp.&lt;p&gt;What&amp;#x27;s interesting is that her test IDs are 7601574 and 7631146 while they were taken within 15 minutes from each other. There&amp;#x27;s some 30k difference, and I think Serbia runs around 40k tests a day. PCR samples are sent to central lab and processed later, that would explain why PCR&amp;#x27;s ID is much higher.&lt;p&gt;However I don&amp;#x27;t think we have definite proof of how these test IDs are generated. Different labs could be assigned batches of IDs, PCR tests itself could have preassigned IDs (you can see they have same ID when you&amp;#x27;re tested, but I&amp;#x27;m not sure it&amp;#x27;s the same ID as presented in results). If test ID is generated when results are inserted into database, then they should always be incremental and Novak&amp;#x27;s test IDs point to forgery. But there could be other explanations.&lt;p&gt;My conclusions:&lt;p&gt;- timestamps are not proof of forgery&lt;p&gt;- test IDs are suspicious, but we can&amp;#x27;t be sure.</text></item><item><author>grujicd</author><text>Ok, this is getting strange. There are two ways to get test results:&lt;p&gt;- it&amp;#x27;s automatically sent to email (if they have it)&lt;p&gt;- you can download it from ezdravlje.rs portal&lt;p&gt;The test I shared above is the one I got on email. However, I went to portal, downloaded pdf, and now I have two copies. They&amp;#x27;re different! IDs and all the data are the same, but QR codes are different.&lt;p&gt;This is the new one:
&lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;pcr.euprava.gov.rs&amp;#x2F;validate.php?cqcode=1641923234g3DWOTqw9NocsR3M9sx2AnAAwbPVByAjUD$uXqiuc1q0gJjGwI&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;pcr.euprava.gov.rs&amp;#x2F;validate.php?cqcode=1641923234g3D...&lt;/a&gt;&lt;p&gt;Timestamp on new pdf is: 1641923234, which is GMT: Tuesday, 11. January 2022. 17:47:14&lt;p&gt;So it appears that timestamp is related to when pdf is generated, and when you download it from the portal it&amp;#x27;s generated at that point of time, i.e. there are no pdf documents sitting on government server!&lt;p&gt;So this timestamp is definitely no proof of forgery. But test ID might be - that one is still suspicious.&lt;p&gt;And one more thing, when I switch tabs with my two QR codes - page content is the same but shifted a bit. I didn&amp;#x27;t look into html&amp;#x2F;css to see what&amp;#x27;s different.</text></item><item><author>grujicd</author><text>This is very sad development for me, Djokovic&amp;#x27;s countryman who really bought his story. Nut facts are facts.&lt;p&gt;I can share my own (positive) test, which confirms timestamp and id theory. My test was taken on the 7th January, it was a rapid test, not a PCR. But it&amp;#x27;s in the same government database:&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;pcr.euprava.gov.rs&amp;#x2F;validate.php?cqcode=1641591150Q!A!EMiAKyIGblU0kEC2nKRD2DNBb23KZ4J5dn8ruBpwqKP1PR&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;pcr.euprava.gov.rs&amp;#x2F;validate.php?cqcode=1641591150Q!A...&lt;/a&gt;&lt;p&gt;Timestamp: 1641591150, which translates to GMT: Friday, 7. January 2022. 21:32:30. That seems to be right, it was taken earlier on the 7th and probably entered later to the central database.&lt;p&gt;Also, ID of my test is: 7601263. Djokovic IDs are 7371999 (16&amp;#x2F;12 test) and 7320919 (22&amp;#x2F;12 test).&lt;p&gt;It really looks like IDs are incremental, and that his test that was supposedly taken on the 16th was taken on the later date.&lt;p&gt;One consolation fact is that he wasn&amp;#x27;t positive when he took photos with kids on 17th.&lt;p&gt;EDIT:
I messed up and copied Novak&amp;#x27;s QR url! fixed now!</text></item><item><author>TomAnthony</author><text>The negative test result:&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;pcr.euprava.gov.rs&amp;#x2F;validate.php?cqcode=1640187792DOH1rb5UHzHutVMKM8TZoXqZZfWoED2JaOoX5mfaeeZODIjRBn&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;pcr.euprava.gov.rs&amp;#x2F;validate.php?cqcode=1640187792DOH...&lt;/a&gt;&lt;p&gt;The positive test result:&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;pcr.euprava.gov.rs&amp;#x2F;validate.php?cqcode=1640524880jk8GTmMJnQCO03nyzch9GPlevVO4rkO3Y!Ognqrxnz34PYV$Rm&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;pcr.euprava.gov.rs&amp;#x2F;validate.php?cqcode=1640524880jk8...&lt;/a&gt;</text></item></parent_chain></comment><story><title>Djokovic&apos;s PCR test was manipulated?</title><url>https://twitter.com/zerforschung/status/1480924205352996870</url></story>
<instructions>Your goal is to analyze the following comment and estimate how highly it will be upvoted by the Hacker News community.</instructions><comment><author>pajowu</author><text>Hey, it&amp;#x27;d be great if you&amp;#x27;d reach out to zerforschung at hallo@zerforschung.org :)</text><parent_chain><item><author>grujicd</author><text>I have 2 more datapoints. My wife went with me to the testing on the same date. If you&amp;#x27;re negative on rapid test, they usually take PCR as well. Since she was negative on the first one, there was a PCR too. These are her QR urls:&lt;p&gt;Rapid test:&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;pcr.euprava.gov.rs&amp;#x2F;validate.php?cqcode=16415703349MJi4QNr3Ohxz3cgzFrtDBM4CSNHfigF$tg4AiN4YoVJSPtDUO&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;pcr.euprava.gov.rs&amp;#x2F;validate.php?cqcode=16415703349MJ...&lt;/a&gt;&lt;p&gt;Timestamp: 1641570334, time: GMT: Friday, 7. January 2022. 15:45:34&lt;p&gt;PCR:&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;pcr.euprava.gov.rs&amp;#x2F;validate.php?cqcode=1641924832NyL5YS!wsSf!8sEKBcvi!hpbktN2TKm8BJv11xGmKwndWBeXvj&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;pcr.euprava.gov.rs&amp;#x2F;validate.php?cqcode=1641924832NyL...&lt;/a&gt;&lt;p&gt;Timestamp: 1641924832, time: GMT: Tuesday, 11. January 2022. 18:13:52&lt;p&gt;I downloaded PCR from portal today, that&amp;#x27;s why it has today&amp;#x27;s timestamp.&lt;p&gt;What&amp;#x27;s interesting is that her test IDs are 7601574 and 7631146 while they were taken within 15 minutes from each other. There&amp;#x27;s some 30k difference, and I think Serbia runs around 40k tests a day. PCR samples are sent to central lab and processed later, that would explain why PCR&amp;#x27;s ID is much higher.&lt;p&gt;However I don&amp;#x27;t think we have definite proof of how these test IDs are generated. Different labs could be assigned batches of IDs, PCR tests itself could have preassigned IDs (you can see they have same ID when you&amp;#x27;re tested, but I&amp;#x27;m not sure it&amp;#x27;s the same ID as presented in results). If test ID is generated when results are inserted into database, then they should always be incremental and Novak&amp;#x27;s test IDs point to forgery. But there could be other explanations.&lt;p&gt;My conclusions:&lt;p&gt;- timestamps are not proof of forgery&lt;p&gt;- test IDs are suspicious, but we can&amp;#x27;t be sure.</text></item><item><author>grujicd</author><text>Ok, this is getting strange. There are two ways to get test results:&lt;p&gt;- it&amp;#x27;s automatically sent to email (if they have it)&lt;p&gt;- you can download it from ezdravlje.rs portal&lt;p&gt;The test I shared above is the one I got on email. However, I went to portal, downloaded pdf, and now I have two copies. They&amp;#x27;re different! IDs and all the data are the same, but QR codes are different.&lt;p&gt;This is the new one:
&lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;pcr.euprava.gov.rs&amp;#x2F;validate.php?cqcode=1641923234g3DWOTqw9NocsR3M9sx2AnAAwbPVByAjUD$uXqiuc1q0gJjGwI&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;pcr.euprava.gov.rs&amp;#x2F;validate.php?cqcode=1641923234g3D...&lt;/a&gt;&lt;p&gt;Timestamp on new pdf is: 1641923234, which is GMT: Tuesday, 11. January 2022. 17:47:14&lt;p&gt;So it appears that timestamp is related to when pdf is generated, and when you download it from the portal it&amp;#x27;s generated at that point of time, i.e. there are no pdf documents sitting on government server!&lt;p&gt;So this timestamp is definitely no proof of forgery. But test ID might be - that one is still suspicious.&lt;p&gt;And one more thing, when I switch tabs with my two QR codes - page content is the same but shifted a bit. I didn&amp;#x27;t look into html&amp;#x2F;css to see what&amp;#x27;s different.</text></item><item><author>grujicd</author><text>This is very sad development for me, Djokovic&amp;#x27;s countryman who really bought his story. Nut facts are facts.&lt;p&gt;I can share my own (positive) test, which confirms timestamp and id theory. My test was taken on the 7th January, it was a rapid test, not a PCR. But it&amp;#x27;s in the same government database:&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;pcr.euprava.gov.rs&amp;#x2F;validate.php?cqcode=1641591150Q!A!EMiAKyIGblU0kEC2nKRD2DNBb23KZ4J5dn8ruBpwqKP1PR&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;pcr.euprava.gov.rs&amp;#x2F;validate.php?cqcode=1641591150Q!A...&lt;/a&gt;&lt;p&gt;Timestamp: 1641591150, which translates to GMT: Friday, 7. January 2022. 21:32:30. That seems to be right, it was taken earlier on the 7th and probably entered later to the central database.&lt;p&gt;Also, ID of my test is: 7601263. Djokovic IDs are 7371999 (16&amp;#x2F;12 test) and 7320919 (22&amp;#x2F;12 test).&lt;p&gt;It really looks like IDs are incremental, and that his test that was supposedly taken on the 16th was taken on the later date.&lt;p&gt;One consolation fact is that he wasn&amp;#x27;t positive when he took photos with kids on 17th.&lt;p&gt;EDIT:
I messed up and copied Novak&amp;#x27;s QR url! fixed now!</text></item><item><author>TomAnthony</author><text>The negative test result:&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;pcr.euprava.gov.rs&amp;#x2F;validate.php?cqcode=1640187792DOH1rb5UHzHutVMKM8TZoXqZZfWoED2JaOoX5mfaeeZODIjRBn&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;pcr.euprava.gov.rs&amp;#x2F;validate.php?cqcode=1640187792DOH...&lt;/a&gt;&lt;p&gt;The positive test result:&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;pcr.euprava.gov.rs&amp;#x2F;validate.php?cqcode=1640524880jk8GTmMJnQCO03nyzch9GPlevVO4rkO3Y!Ognqrxnz34PYV$Rm&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;pcr.euprava.gov.rs&amp;#x2F;validate.php?cqcode=1640524880jk8...&lt;/a&gt;</text></item></parent_chain></comment><story><title>Djokovic&apos;s PCR test was manipulated?</title><url>https://twitter.com/zerforschung/status/1480924205352996870</url></story>