<instructions>Your goal is to analyze the following comment and estimate how highly it will be upvoted by the Hacker News community.</instructions><comment><author>seadan83</author><text>I wish I could find the reference, one study showed that additional time spent estimating does not improve estimate accuracy. Only historical data regarding similar tasks were where estimates could be made accurately.&lt;p&gt;Example: How long will it take you to lean advanced physics? Even if I gave you a week, your estimate is likely worthless (maybe precise, but not accurate). To me this makes sense because you cannot know the unknown unknowns until you hit them (and throw in some of the journeyman fallacy)&lt;p&gt;Meanwhile, how long will it take to brush your teeth is easy to estimate. How long will it take to brush your teeth with a new electric toothbrush is also reasonable to estimate.</text><parent_chain><item><author>commandlinefan</author><text>This article implies, but doesn&amp;#x27;t come right out and say, something that I strongly suspect: that producing an accurate (or even close-to accurate) software project estimate is a time-consuming, unpredictable task.  The question nobody seems to be examining is whether or not the cost of doing a large, expensive up-front analysis that might take an arbitrary amount of time is less than the cost of just doing it concurrently with the software development itself.</text></item></parent_chain></comment><story><title>What Do We Know About Time Pressure in Software Development?</title><url>https://www.computer.org/csdl/magazine/so/2021/05/09184214/1mLHZkBtQiI</url></story>
<instructions>Your goal is to analyze the following comment and estimate how highly it will be upvoted by the Hacker News community.</instructions><comment><author>coldcode</author><text>A lot of these articles assume the work being estimated will remain relevant during the estimated timeframe. My last (very large, not FAANG) employer started every project with a hard deadline, estimates were only used for budgeting not time, and then every project changed on a daily basis until it was obvious it would never ship by the deadline which was changed at the last minute. Every single project worked like this (note these projects were for us not external clients). I know of no theory of estimation that can account for continuous change unknown at the start.</text><parent_chain><item><author>commandlinefan</author><text>This article implies, but doesn&amp;#x27;t come right out and say, something that I strongly suspect: that producing an accurate (or even close-to accurate) software project estimate is a time-consuming, unpredictable task.  The question nobody seems to be examining is whether or not the cost of doing a large, expensive up-front analysis that might take an arbitrary amount of time is less than the cost of just doing it concurrently with the software development itself.</text></item></parent_chain></comment><story><title>What Do We Know About Time Pressure in Software Development?</title><url>https://www.computer.org/csdl/magazine/so/2021/05/09184214/1mLHZkBtQiI</url></story>