<instructions>Your goal is to analyze the following comment and estimate how highly it will be upvoted by the Hacker News community.</instructions><comment><author>tqi</author><text>Agreed, this doesn&amp;#x27;t pass the sniff test at all. Makes me think of this article[1]:&lt;p&gt;&amp;gt; Your estimate will be wrong for a silly, almost tautological reason: if you can only detect large effects, then any effect you detect will be large. If you keep looking for an effect, over and over again, until finally one study gets lucky and sees it, that study will almost necessarily give a wild overestimate of the effect size.&lt;p&gt;[1]: &lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;jaydaigle.net&amp;#x2F;blog&amp;#x2F;replication-crisis-math&amp;#x2F;&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;jaydaigle.net&amp;#x2F;blog&amp;#x2F;replication-crisis-math&amp;#x2F;&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&amp;#x2F;item?id=30181696&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;news.ycombinator.com&amp;#x2F;item?id=30181696&lt;/a&gt;</text><parent_chain><item><author>carbocation</author><text>As someone who also heavily uses UK Biobank in my research, I would just encourage people to think about this effect size and ask whether it&amp;#x27;s plausible. If true, coffee has a more powerful effect on your risk of all-cause death than any drug for most diseases. It&amp;#x27;s wildly implausible. The results are confounded. There is no causal anchor.&lt;p&gt;Having said that, coffee is great.</text></item></parent_chain></comment><story><title>Coffee drinking linked to lower mortality risk, new study finds</title><url>https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/01/well/eat/coffee-study-lower-dying-risk.html</url></story>
<instructions>Your goal is to analyze the following comment and estimate how highly it will be upvoted by the Hacker News community.</instructions><comment><author>323</author><text>&amp;gt; &lt;i&gt;a more powerful effect on your risk of all-cause death than any drug for most diseases&lt;/i&gt;&lt;p&gt;But these people were mostly healthy.&lt;p&gt;I&amp;#x27;m sure that coffee doesn&amp;#x27;t work better compared to medicine if you are diseased,</text><parent_chain><item><author>carbocation</author><text>As someone who also heavily uses UK Biobank in my research, I would just encourage people to think about this effect size and ask whether it&amp;#x27;s plausible. If true, coffee has a more powerful effect on your risk of all-cause death than any drug for most diseases. It&amp;#x27;s wildly implausible. The results are confounded. There is no causal anchor.&lt;p&gt;Having said that, coffee is great.</text></item></parent_chain></comment><story><title>Coffee drinking linked to lower mortality risk, new study finds</title><url>https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/01/well/eat/coffee-study-lower-dying-risk.html</url></story>