<instructions>Your goal is to analyze the following comment and estimate how highly it will be upvoted by the Hacker News community.</instructions><comment><author>908B64B197</author><text>&amp;gt; But Chinese rockets hitting Ukrainian kids in Kyiv&amp;#x2F;Europe? That would trigger dramatic sanctions. I don&amp;#x27;t think that is priced into the current world stock market.&lt;p&gt;Short term this would wreck western economies worse than the 2007 crisis.&lt;p&gt;Long term, it would be the end of China and give a massive boost to western economies. In the mainland it would mean massive stagnation&amp;#x2F;industry collapse as manufacturing is moved to pro-western southeast Asian countries. Millions of  unemployed and unmarried (thanks to out of control population control policies) aggressive young man roaming the country with no hope to emigrate thanks to sanctions. Add food insecurity to the mix, since some countries exporting food to China might re-consider their allegiances not to get sanctioned as well and it would spell disaster for the regime.&lt;p&gt;High net worth individuals getting their foreign assets seized for double allegiance in the west would provide relief to native home buyers and free so much capital to be spent on consumptions good, to soften the blow of higher production costs because of re-shoring.</text><parent_chain><item><author>ChemSpider</author><text>That possibility makes me really nervous. A few weeks ago I was pretty sure that Beijing would not be &lt;i&gt;that&lt;/i&gt; stupid, and simply stick with sending tons of dual-use goods, to keep up the plausible deniability.&lt;p&gt;But Chinese rockets hitting Ukrainian kids in Kyiv&amp;#x2F;Europe? That would trigger dramatic sanctions. I don&amp;#x27;t think that is priced into the current world stock market.</text></item><item><author>foota</author><text>Could be in preparation for supplying arms to Russia.</text></item><item><author>andy_ppp</author><text>Are the increasingly tight capital controls a precursor to a war with Taiwan or because the CCP expects some other shock to occur? Is their economy expected to crash for some other reason or is this simply dictatorships love centralised control over everything especially capital?</text></item></parent_chain></comment><story><title>Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify</title><url>https://www.asiamarkets.com/chinese-banks-cause-alarm-as-capital-flight-measures-intensify/</url></story>
<instructions>Your goal is to analyze the following comment and estimate how highly it will be upvoted by the Hacker News community.</instructions><comment><author>roenxi</author><text>&amp;gt; A few weeks ago I was pretty sure that Beijing would not be that stupid...&lt;p&gt;The US is executing the same broad strategy against both China and Russia - surrounding them with US-friendly states who then get military support. It seems to be working extremely well against Russia since they can barely get Russian troops into the Donbass safely.&lt;p&gt;While I, personally, agree that it would be stupid I can certainly see that situation from the perspective of a hypothetical Chinese military planner. A destabilised Russia would potentially have a colour revolution leading to a US encirclement on 3 compass points. China would therefore have no choice but to support the war effort against Ukraine.</text><parent_chain><item><author>ChemSpider</author><text>That possibility makes me really nervous. A few weeks ago I was pretty sure that Beijing would not be &lt;i&gt;that&lt;/i&gt; stupid, and simply stick with sending tons of dual-use goods, to keep up the plausible deniability.&lt;p&gt;But Chinese rockets hitting Ukrainian kids in Kyiv&amp;#x2F;Europe? That would trigger dramatic sanctions. I don&amp;#x27;t think that is priced into the current world stock market.</text></item><item><author>foota</author><text>Could be in preparation for supplying arms to Russia.</text></item><item><author>andy_ppp</author><text>Are the increasingly tight capital controls a precursor to a war with Taiwan or because the CCP expects some other shock to occur? Is their economy expected to crash for some other reason or is this simply dictatorships love centralised control over everything especially capital?</text></item></parent_chain></comment><story><title>Chinese banks cause alarm as capital flight measures intensify</title><url>https://www.asiamarkets.com/chinese-banks-cause-alarm-as-capital-flight-measures-intensify/</url></story>