<instructions>Your goal is to analyze the following comment and estimate how highly it will be upvoted by the Hacker News community.</instructions><comment><author>stouset</author><text>Realistically, it is exceedingly unlikely for this to happen in our lifetime. Based on the best estimates we have, it’s most likely ten thousand or more years too early in its red giant phase for this to happen.&lt;p&gt;Most of the possibility of it happening comes from the error bars in our assumptions about its progress through the red giant phase, and the error bars in our understanding of how red giants collapse. Put another way, it’s not that we think it might happen in our lifetimes, it’s that we’re relatively sure it &lt;i&gt;won’t&lt;/i&gt; (but we could be wrong).</text><parent_chain><item><author>shadykiller</author><text>Does that mean it&amp;#x27;s not exploding ?&lt;p&gt;Super disappointing. Is there still hope to see the supernova in our lifetime ?</text></item><item><author>Jun8</author><text>From the abstract:&lt;p&gt;&amp;quot;This suggests that the recent dramatic fading observed at visual wavelengths is due mostly to local surface phenomena, such as changes in dust extinction or molecular opacity along the line of sight through the inner wind and complex atmosphere, and&amp;#x2F;or surface temperature fluctuations.&amp;quot;</text></item></parent_chain></comment><story><title>Betelgeuse Remains Steadfast in the Infrared</title><url>http://www.astronomerstelegram.org/?read=13518</url></story>
<instructions>Your goal is to analyze the following comment and estimate how highly it will be upvoted by the Hacker News community.</instructions><comment><author>jlmorton</author><text>&amp;quot;Thus, while Betelgeuse may explode tomorrow or any time in the next few 1e5 yr, the unprecedented current visual faintness is unlikely to be a harbinger of its impending core collapse.&amp;quot;</text><parent_chain><item><author>shadykiller</author><text>Does that mean it&amp;#x27;s not exploding ?&lt;p&gt;Super disappointing. Is there still hope to see the supernova in our lifetime ?</text></item><item><author>Jun8</author><text>From the abstract:&lt;p&gt;&amp;quot;This suggests that the recent dramatic fading observed at visual wavelengths is due mostly to local surface phenomena, such as changes in dust extinction or molecular opacity along the line of sight through the inner wind and complex atmosphere, and&amp;#x2F;or surface temperature fluctuations.&amp;quot;</text></item></parent_chain></comment><story><title>Betelgeuse Remains Steadfast in the Infrared</title><url>http://www.astronomerstelegram.org/?read=13518</url></story>