<instructions>Your goal is to analyze the following comment and estimate how highly it will be upvoted by the Hacker News community.</instructions><comment><author>mempko</author><text>I am often shocked how a community like HN could have so many global warming skeptics. It doesn&amp;#x27;t make sense to me because people who deal with software should understand complex systems. Should understand how hard understanding complex systems are. And should understand how dangerous it is to disrupt complex systems so dramatically like we did the climate.</text><parent_chain><item><author>waterthrowaway</author><text>Hello!&lt;p&gt;I’m a physical oceanographer which means my job is to figure out how the water moves and delivers heat through things like math and models. Paleoclimate isn’t my expertise but I figured I’d chime in on some of the climate skepticism here.&lt;p&gt;Oceanographers would be the first to admit that modeling-predicting changes in the ocean is very hard. Especially more regional features like an intensified warming in the Labrador Sea. That is because even state of the art models have coarse resolution and our initial conditions for far in the past are poor. However, anthropogenic climate change is not a regional effect.&lt;p&gt;It’s like if first I asked you, what will happen if I hit this window with a hammer? It will break. Now what if I ask you where every piece will go?&lt;p&gt;Also I’ve seen in this thread people saying that global climate change has been overhyped. From the science side this paper does a great job of evaluating our models from the past:&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;core.ac.uk&amp;#x2F;download&amp;#x2F;pdf&amp;#x2F;288430943.pdf&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;core.ac.uk&amp;#x2F;download&amp;#x2F;pdf&amp;#x2F;288430943.pdf&lt;/a&gt;</text></item></parent_chain></comment><story><title>Arctic Ocean started getting warmer decades earlier than we thought</title><url>https://www.cam.ac.uk/stories/arcticocean</url></story>
<instructions>Your goal is to analyze the following comment and estimate how highly it will be upvoted by the Hacker News community.</instructions><comment><author>waterthrowaway</author><text>If you are interested in the irreducible imprecision of climate models this paper is fun too&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.pnas.org&amp;#x2F;content&amp;#x2F;104&amp;#x2F;21&amp;#x2F;8709&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.pnas.org&amp;#x2F;content&amp;#x2F;104&amp;#x2F;21&amp;#x2F;8709&lt;/a&gt;</text><parent_chain><item><author>waterthrowaway</author><text>Hello!&lt;p&gt;I’m a physical oceanographer which means my job is to figure out how the water moves and delivers heat through things like math and models. Paleoclimate isn’t my expertise but I figured I’d chime in on some of the climate skepticism here.&lt;p&gt;Oceanographers would be the first to admit that modeling-predicting changes in the ocean is very hard. Especially more regional features like an intensified warming in the Labrador Sea. That is because even state of the art models have coarse resolution and our initial conditions for far in the past are poor. However, anthropogenic climate change is not a regional effect.&lt;p&gt;It’s like if first I asked you, what will happen if I hit this window with a hammer? It will break. Now what if I ask you where every piece will go?&lt;p&gt;Also I’ve seen in this thread people saying that global climate change has been overhyped. From the science side this paper does a great job of evaluating our models from the past:&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;core.ac.uk&amp;#x2F;download&amp;#x2F;pdf&amp;#x2F;288430943.pdf&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;core.ac.uk&amp;#x2F;download&amp;#x2F;pdf&amp;#x2F;288430943.pdf&lt;/a&gt;</text></item></parent_chain></comment><story><title>Arctic Ocean started getting warmer decades earlier than we thought</title><url>https://www.cam.ac.uk/stories/arcticocean</url></story>