<instructions>Your goal is to analyze the following comment and estimate how highly it will be upvoted by the Hacker News community.</instructions><comment><author>zeteo</author><text>&amp;gt; Game-theory software can even help locate a terrorist&amp;#x27;s hideout [... by estimating] on a 100-point scale the importance a wanted man attaches to his likes (fishing, say) and priorities (remaining hidden or [...] recruiting suicide-bombers). Such factors determine where and how terrorists decide to live. Game-theory software played an important role in finding Osama bin Laden&amp;#x27;s hideout in Abbottabad, Pakistan, says Mr Owen&lt;p&gt;After a crescendo of unsubstantiated claims, the article finally reaches a well-known case. The claims here seem laughable. First, by all accounts, bin Laden was pretty stationary in his compound and any hot-air model of his psychology regarding fishing vs. recruiting would have been irrelevant. Second, the US government at the time would have been ecstatic to push a story about game theory finding bin Laden - it would have protected sources on the ground, the guy doing a fake vaccination campaign etc.&lt;p&gt;Regrettably, the article&amp;#x27;s agenda seems to be no more than pushing a gaggle of unsubstantiated claims that would help consultants with their magical game-theory software make money off gullible companies &amp;#x2F; governments.</text><parent_chain></parent_chain></comment><story><title>Game theory in practice (2011)</title><url>http://www.economist.com/node/21527025</url></story>
<instructions>Your goal is to analyze the following comment and estimate how highly it will be upvoted by the Hacker News community.</instructions><comment><author>aaron-lebo</author><text>It&amp;#x27;s a little frustrating how this article uses &amp;quot;game theory&amp;quot; as an abstract term that covers pretty much all of de Mesquita&amp;#x27;s analysis without really explaining &lt;i&gt;how&lt;/i&gt; it is used.&lt;p&gt;I am guessing much of de Mesquita&amp;#x27;s predictive power is less classic game theory and more of an application of his selectorate theory. [0] To oversimplify leaders stay in power through winning coalitions that are much smaller than the populace as a whole. If you can identify that small group that keeps a leader in power and analyze shifts in support within that group, you can make some interesting &amp;quot;predictions&amp;quot;.&lt;p&gt;That being said BBDM while very smart is also a great marketer and he&amp;#x27;s wrong sometimes, too. [1]&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&amp;#x2F;wiki&amp;#x2F;Selectorate_theory&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&amp;#x2F;wiki&amp;#x2F;Selectorate_theory&lt;/a&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;decision-making.moshe-online.com&amp;#x2F;criticism_of_bueno_de_mesquita.html#successor&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;http:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;decision-making.moshe-online.com&amp;#x2F;criticism_of_bueno_d...&lt;/a&gt;</text><parent_chain></parent_chain></comment><story><title>Game theory in practice (2011)</title><url>http://www.economist.com/node/21527025</url></story>