<instructions>Your goal is to analyze the following comment and estimate how highly it will be upvoted by the Hacker News community.</instructions><comment><author>mason55</author><text>One thing I’ve found to be helpful is to make it clear that &lt;i&gt;I won’t be mad about a long estimate&lt;/i&gt;&lt;p&gt;If that’s how long it’s going to take then that’s how long it’s going to take.  I think there’s a group of people who are used to getting lots of pushback on their estimates and so they estimate low to avoid that conflict. The future conflict of things being late is not something they have to deal with right now and maybe they actually will get it done.&lt;p&gt;The key is backing it up continually and really not getting mad about estimates that are longer than I’d like. And, for people who I do think are sandbagging, asking more specific questions about the details of the estimate in a non-combative way.&lt;p&gt;And of course some people really are bad at estimating.  But I find if they don’t improve with coaching then it’s a symptom of a bigger problem (not thinking things through all the way) which manifests in other ways beyond estimation (eg poor design)</text><parent_chain><item><author>ColinHayhurst</author><text>&amp;gt; Estimates are one of the hardest parts of software development.&lt;p&gt;And also fundamental. When I was directly estimating big software projects the key, for me, was to trust developers recommendations but apply a different multiplier for each developer. Multipliers ranged from x1 to x3. Those rare devs with x1 were, of course, a blessing. And those with x3 were not necessarily bad; they were often the ones working on the really hard problems. Of course, it meant getting to know those developers and a prior (which we set at x2, for new starters).&lt;p&gt;Individuals were remarkably consistent in terms of their actual performance; so a x1 developer would almost always be a x1; a x1.5 would almost always be x1.5.</text></item></parent_chain></comment><story><title>Planning and estimating large-scale software projects</title><url>https://tomrussell.co.uk/writing/2021/07/19/estimating-large-scale-software-projects.html</url></story>
<instructions>Your goal is to analyze the following comment and estimate how highly it will be upvoted by the Hacker News community.</instructions><comment><author>crooked-v</author><text>I&amp;#x27;m reminded of the classic saying: &amp;quot;The first 95% of the work takes 95% of the time, and the last 5% of the work takes the other 95% of the time.&amp;quot;</text><parent_chain><item><author>ColinHayhurst</author><text>&amp;gt; Estimates are one of the hardest parts of software development.&lt;p&gt;And also fundamental. When I was directly estimating big software projects the key, for me, was to trust developers recommendations but apply a different multiplier for each developer. Multipliers ranged from x1 to x3. Those rare devs with x1 were, of course, a blessing. And those with x3 were not necessarily bad; they were often the ones working on the really hard problems. Of course, it meant getting to know those developers and a prior (which we set at x2, for new starters).&lt;p&gt;Individuals were remarkably consistent in terms of their actual performance; so a x1 developer would almost always be a x1; a x1.5 would almost always be x1.5.</text></item></parent_chain></comment><story><title>Planning and estimating large-scale software projects</title><url>https://tomrussell.co.uk/writing/2021/07/19/estimating-large-scale-software-projects.html</url></story>