<instructions>Your goal is to analyze the following comment and estimate how highly it will be upvoted by the Hacker News community.</instructions><comment><author>diversionfactor</author><text>Don’t sweat it.  I’ve invested multiple hundreds of thousands in venture-backed startups over the past two decades, and lost all of it.  None of the startups was successful.  These were all audited venture-backed with experienced founders many of whom I’ve known personally in the Austin tech scene.  Losing money is the rule in any kind of investing beyond the prevailing real interest rate.  It’s all speculation.  By the sound of it your diversification is paying off.  Actually you’re quite smart in that regard, you didn’t put it all into startups like me.</text><parent_chain><item><author>tombert</author><text>I mean, I know.  I lost my money. I wrote the post explaining that I feel stupid about it.</text></item><item><author>hibikir</author><text>But it&amp;#x27;s precisely that handwaviness that should make you not have to do research at all and smell a rat, as ultimately rate of interest and risk come hand in hand. It doesn&amp;#x27;t matter whether the instrument is based on crypto, real estate or pokemon cards.&lt;p&gt;If someone is offering a high interest, very liquid investment with returns so high that you are better off taking a larger mortgage, and putting the extra money into the investment, there has to be a hidden risk component: Otherwise, why would anyone issue mortgages, instead of investing in this very liquid instrument? It&amp;#x27;s too good to be true.&lt;p&gt;It&amp;#x27;s not unlike the people that spent money ordering cryptominers from butterfly labs: The expected return from buying them (pay the whole thing off in two months, and afterwards it&amp;#x27;s all profit!&amp;quot;) just doesn&amp;#x27;t line up, regardless of the justification. Extraordinary returns exist, but they either require that you discover them yourself, or have to carry significant risks. So when someone is selling the opportunity to you, and you are told there&amp;#x27;s no risk, you have to know you are being lied to, no due diligence necessary.</text></item><item><author>tombert</author><text>Well, there was some hand-waviness claiming that GUSD was FDIC insured [1], and they kept comparing it to bank accounts.  I will admit that I should have done more research before putting it in, but I just assumed that since Gemini was ostensibly working with regulators and they were plastering the safety of GUSD everywhere, I guess I just didn&amp;#x27;t do my due diligence. I&amp;#x27;ll accept my share of the blame.&lt;p&gt;[1] &lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.gemini.com&amp;#x2F;dollar&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.gemini.com&amp;#x2F;dollar&lt;/a&gt;  It still mentioned &amp;quot;FDIC&amp;quot; stuff in small print, but it was much more prominent in earlier stuff.</text></item><item><author>prepend</author><text>I’m sorry for your loss but I’m really amazed you thought that 7% yield from savings at a time of 0% interest rates was anything other than a fabrication.&lt;p&gt;I looked at these and they were so absurd there was no way I would invest. No fundamentals. No audit. No insurance. No stable company or bank.&lt;p&gt;What was your thought process in putting funds here? Did you think it would just take longer to explode and you would be able to withdraw before? Did you genuinely believe?</text></item><item><author>tombert</author><text>I sincerely hope that I never meet Sam Bankman Fried, because if I did I do not know what I would do but it certainly wouldn&amp;#x27;t be legal.&lt;p&gt;I was stupid and thought that the 7+% interest I was getting from Gemini+GUSD+Genesis Holdings was a good idea, I put a good chunk of money in there, and as of right now the status for that appears to be in &amp;quot;limbo at best&amp;quot;.  It&amp;#x27;s particularly upsetting, because this all unfolded right after I got fired from my last job, when I really needed my liquid money to pay for things like &amp;quot;my mortgage&amp;quot; and &amp;quot;food&amp;quot;.&lt;p&gt;I&amp;#x27;m fine now fiscally, and even wasn&amp;#x27;t in too much trouble back in November [1], but it make me lose multiple nights of sleep worrying about stuff, and also made me feel like an idiot for ever thinking that cryptocurrency was a good idea.&lt;p&gt;[1] I have a good chunk of money stashed in stocks&amp;#x2F;ETFs, which I could have liquidated for money, but the market was pretty far down so I would have had to take a big haircut.</text></item></parent_chain></comment><story><title>IRS files $44B claims against bankrupt FTX</title><url>https://unchainedcrypto.com/irs-files-44-billion-claims-against-bankrupt-ftx/</url></story>
<instructions>Your goal is to analyze the following comment and estimate how highly it will be upvoted by the Hacker News community.</instructions><comment><author>sally_glance</author><text>Just wanted to chime in and say thank you for sharing. If everyone was too ashamed of sharing past stupidness we would have no guideposts at all for gauging our own inevitable stupidness.</text><parent_chain><item><author>tombert</author><text>I mean, I know.  I lost my money. I wrote the post explaining that I feel stupid about it.</text></item><item><author>hibikir</author><text>But it&amp;#x27;s precisely that handwaviness that should make you not have to do research at all and smell a rat, as ultimately rate of interest and risk come hand in hand. It doesn&amp;#x27;t matter whether the instrument is based on crypto, real estate or pokemon cards.&lt;p&gt;If someone is offering a high interest, very liquid investment with returns so high that you are better off taking a larger mortgage, and putting the extra money into the investment, there has to be a hidden risk component: Otherwise, why would anyone issue mortgages, instead of investing in this very liquid instrument? It&amp;#x27;s too good to be true.&lt;p&gt;It&amp;#x27;s not unlike the people that spent money ordering cryptominers from butterfly labs: The expected return from buying them (pay the whole thing off in two months, and afterwards it&amp;#x27;s all profit!&amp;quot;) just doesn&amp;#x27;t line up, regardless of the justification. Extraordinary returns exist, but they either require that you discover them yourself, or have to carry significant risks. So when someone is selling the opportunity to you, and you are told there&amp;#x27;s no risk, you have to know you are being lied to, no due diligence necessary.</text></item><item><author>tombert</author><text>Well, there was some hand-waviness claiming that GUSD was FDIC insured [1], and they kept comparing it to bank accounts.  I will admit that I should have done more research before putting it in, but I just assumed that since Gemini was ostensibly working with regulators and they were plastering the safety of GUSD everywhere, I guess I just didn&amp;#x27;t do my due diligence. I&amp;#x27;ll accept my share of the blame.&lt;p&gt;[1] &lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.gemini.com&amp;#x2F;dollar&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.gemini.com&amp;#x2F;dollar&lt;/a&gt;  It still mentioned &amp;quot;FDIC&amp;quot; stuff in small print, but it was much more prominent in earlier stuff.</text></item><item><author>prepend</author><text>I’m sorry for your loss but I’m really amazed you thought that 7% yield from savings at a time of 0% interest rates was anything other than a fabrication.&lt;p&gt;I looked at these and they were so absurd there was no way I would invest. No fundamentals. No audit. No insurance. No stable company or bank.&lt;p&gt;What was your thought process in putting funds here? Did you think it would just take longer to explode and you would be able to withdraw before? Did you genuinely believe?</text></item><item><author>tombert</author><text>I sincerely hope that I never meet Sam Bankman Fried, because if I did I do not know what I would do but it certainly wouldn&amp;#x27;t be legal.&lt;p&gt;I was stupid and thought that the 7+% interest I was getting from Gemini+GUSD+Genesis Holdings was a good idea, I put a good chunk of money in there, and as of right now the status for that appears to be in &amp;quot;limbo at best&amp;quot;.  It&amp;#x27;s particularly upsetting, because this all unfolded right after I got fired from my last job, when I really needed my liquid money to pay for things like &amp;quot;my mortgage&amp;quot; and &amp;quot;food&amp;quot;.&lt;p&gt;I&amp;#x27;m fine now fiscally, and even wasn&amp;#x27;t in too much trouble back in November [1], but it make me lose multiple nights of sleep worrying about stuff, and also made me feel like an idiot for ever thinking that cryptocurrency was a good idea.&lt;p&gt;[1] I have a good chunk of money stashed in stocks&amp;#x2F;ETFs, which I could have liquidated for money, but the market was pretty far down so I would have had to take a big haircut.</text></item></parent_chain></comment><story><title>IRS files $44B claims against bankrupt FTX</title><url>https://unchainedcrypto.com/irs-files-44-billion-claims-against-bankrupt-ftx/</url></story>