<instructions>Your goal is to analyze the following comment and estimate how highly it will be upvoted by the Hacker News community.</instructions><comment><author>Retric</author><text>SpaceX is already docking with the space station which is similar difficulty as launching from the moon and docking in lunar orbit.  The problem is getting a rocket with enough fuel on the surface of the moon without damaging it, not the docking in orbit.  Which is even easier than doing the same thing from the surface of Mars.  The only advantage of Mars is you don&amp;#x27;t need to burn fuel slowing down but that&amp;#x27;s more than offset by a significantly deeper gravity well.&lt;p&gt;On the upside, they can land an un-manned assent vehicle on the surface of Moon &amp;#x2F; Mars before sending people there.  Which can significantly increase your odds of getting back.&lt;p&gt;PS: Yes, NASA did get to the moon and back several times, but they also took a massive chunk of US GDP to do so.  &lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&amp;#x2F;wiki&amp;#x2F;Budget_of_NASA#&amp;#x2F;media&amp;#x2F;File:NASA-Budget-Federal.svg&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&amp;#x2F;wiki&amp;#x2F;Budget_of_NASA#&amp;#x2F;media&amp;#x2F;File:NAS...&lt;/a&gt;</text><parent_chain><item><author>jessriedel</author><text>Right.  SpaceX doesn&amp;#x27;t have a craft capable of lunar orbit rendezvous&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&amp;#x2F;wiki&amp;#x2F;Lunar_orbit_rendezvous&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&amp;#x2F;wiki&amp;#x2F;Lunar_orbit_rendezvous&lt;/a&gt;&lt;p&gt;so they would need to return to the Earth directly from the surface of the moon&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&amp;#x2F;wiki&amp;#x2F;Direct_ascent&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&amp;#x2F;wiki&amp;#x2F;Direct_ascent&lt;/a&gt;&lt;p&gt;Direct ascent requires a &lt;i&gt;much&lt;/i&gt; larger initial launch mass, i.e., a larger rocket than has ever been built.  Since it took the massive Saturn V to complete the Apollo missions using lunar rendezvous, and SpaceX&amp;#x27;s Falcon Heavy is smaller, I don&amp;#x27;t think they are even close to having the ability to land on the moon and return.&lt;p&gt;(And that&amp;#x27;s assuming there&amp;#x27;s not other insurmountable factors preventing Dragon from landing on the moon and taking off, which there probably are.)&lt;p&gt;Hopefully someone with more knowledge can chime in.</text></item><item><author>dperfect</author><text>&amp;gt; China has been working up to getting a space capability to send people to the Moon with the full backing of the government funding, by 2035[1]. They started in 2003. SpaceX was founded in 2002 and they are saying they will fly someone around the moon next year?&lt;p&gt;I don&amp;#x27;t want to downplay SpaceX &lt;i&gt;at all&lt;/i&gt; because I&amp;#x27;m a huge fan, but isn&amp;#x27;t flying someone &lt;i&gt;to&lt;/i&gt; the moon (and presumably back) more complicated than just flying &lt;i&gt;around&lt;/i&gt; the moon and back? As I understand, apart from the challenge of achieving orbital velocity (no small feat), flying around the moon might require ~41% more velocity (assuming escape velocity to orbital velocity being a ratio of something like sqrt(2):1) and you can use the moon&amp;#x27;s gravity to redirect you back to earth, whereas landing on the moon and returning requires even more energy (slowing down to land + escaping the moon and returning), not to mention the various other technical requirements involved with the landing itself.&lt;p&gt;&amp;quot;Beyond the moon&amp;quot; makes this sound like it&amp;#x27;ll be a greater achievement than the Apollo moon landings, but I&amp;#x27;m not sure that&amp;#x27;s really true. Don&amp;#x27;t get me wrong, the fact that it&amp;#x27;s a private (ish) company doing this is incredible, just not quite &amp;quot;moon landing&amp;quot; incredible... yet.</text></item><item><author>ChuckMcM</author><text>Wow. This sends so many thoughts cascading through my head that I&amp;#x27;m dizzy.&lt;p&gt;Some things to consider, China has been working up to getting a space capability to send people to the Moon with the full backing of the government funding, by 2035[1]. They started in 2003. SpaceX was founded in 2002 and they are saying they will fly someone around the moon next year? Dragon has the deltaV to land on the moon (not sure if it has enough to get off again though) and SpaceX certainly has the expertise in building spacecraft that land.&lt;p&gt;The next person to take a picture of the Earth from moon may not be on a government funded mission. That one really blows my mind. For so long it was only countries that could do something like that, now it is nearly within reach of individuals.&lt;p&gt;The UN has treaties about claiming (or not) the moon by a nation state, but there isn&amp;#x27;t anything about a privately funded and established outpost that wants to declare independence. All this time I imagined that some country would establish a base there, and grudgingly offer up some space for non-state use, and now there is this possibility of a private facility that states have to ask permission to visit? That is priceless.&lt;p&gt;[1] &lt;a href=&quot;http:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;blogs.wsj.com&amp;#x2F;chinarealtime&amp;#x2F;2016&amp;#x2F;04&amp;#x2F;29&amp;#x2F;man-on-the-moon-china-sets-lunar-mission-date&amp;#x2F;&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;http:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;blogs.wsj.com&amp;#x2F;chinarealtime&amp;#x2F;2016&amp;#x2F;04&amp;#x2F;29&amp;#x2F;man-on-the-moo...&lt;/a&gt;</text></item></parent_chain></comment><story><title>SpaceX to Send Privately Crewed Dragon Spacecraft Beyond the Moon Next Year</title><url>http://www.spacex.com/news/2017/02/27/spacex-send-privately-crewed-dragon-spacecraft-beyond-moon-next-year</url></story>
<instructions>Your goal is to analyze the following comment and estimate how highly it will be upvoted by the Hacker News community.</instructions><comment><author>XorNot</author><text>SpaceX for a landing mission wouldn&amp;#x27;t try and build a larger rocket, they&amp;#x27;d definitely argue to just do multiple launches instead. Fuel tankering is within their area of interest for Mars.</text><parent_chain><item><author>jessriedel</author><text>Right.  SpaceX doesn&amp;#x27;t have a craft capable of lunar orbit rendezvous&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&amp;#x2F;wiki&amp;#x2F;Lunar_orbit_rendezvous&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&amp;#x2F;wiki&amp;#x2F;Lunar_orbit_rendezvous&lt;/a&gt;&lt;p&gt;so they would need to return to the Earth directly from the surface of the moon&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&amp;#x2F;wiki&amp;#x2F;Direct_ascent&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&amp;#x2F;wiki&amp;#x2F;Direct_ascent&lt;/a&gt;&lt;p&gt;Direct ascent requires a &lt;i&gt;much&lt;/i&gt; larger initial launch mass, i.e., a larger rocket than has ever been built.  Since it took the massive Saturn V to complete the Apollo missions using lunar rendezvous, and SpaceX&amp;#x27;s Falcon Heavy is smaller, I don&amp;#x27;t think they are even close to having the ability to land on the moon and return.&lt;p&gt;(And that&amp;#x27;s assuming there&amp;#x27;s not other insurmountable factors preventing Dragon from landing on the moon and taking off, which there probably are.)&lt;p&gt;Hopefully someone with more knowledge can chime in.</text></item><item><author>dperfect</author><text>&amp;gt; China has been working up to getting a space capability to send people to the Moon with the full backing of the government funding, by 2035[1]. They started in 2003. SpaceX was founded in 2002 and they are saying they will fly someone around the moon next year?&lt;p&gt;I don&amp;#x27;t want to downplay SpaceX &lt;i&gt;at all&lt;/i&gt; because I&amp;#x27;m a huge fan, but isn&amp;#x27;t flying someone &lt;i&gt;to&lt;/i&gt; the moon (and presumably back) more complicated than just flying &lt;i&gt;around&lt;/i&gt; the moon and back? As I understand, apart from the challenge of achieving orbital velocity (no small feat), flying around the moon might require ~41% more velocity (assuming escape velocity to orbital velocity being a ratio of something like sqrt(2):1) and you can use the moon&amp;#x27;s gravity to redirect you back to earth, whereas landing on the moon and returning requires even more energy (slowing down to land + escaping the moon and returning), not to mention the various other technical requirements involved with the landing itself.&lt;p&gt;&amp;quot;Beyond the moon&amp;quot; makes this sound like it&amp;#x27;ll be a greater achievement than the Apollo moon landings, but I&amp;#x27;m not sure that&amp;#x27;s really true. Don&amp;#x27;t get me wrong, the fact that it&amp;#x27;s a private (ish) company doing this is incredible, just not quite &amp;quot;moon landing&amp;quot; incredible... yet.</text></item><item><author>ChuckMcM</author><text>Wow. This sends so many thoughts cascading through my head that I&amp;#x27;m dizzy.&lt;p&gt;Some things to consider, China has been working up to getting a space capability to send people to the Moon with the full backing of the government funding, by 2035[1]. They started in 2003. SpaceX was founded in 2002 and they are saying they will fly someone around the moon next year? Dragon has the deltaV to land on the moon (not sure if it has enough to get off again though) and SpaceX certainly has the expertise in building spacecraft that land.&lt;p&gt;The next person to take a picture of the Earth from moon may not be on a government funded mission. That one really blows my mind. For so long it was only countries that could do something like that, now it is nearly within reach of individuals.&lt;p&gt;The UN has treaties about claiming (or not) the moon by a nation state, but there isn&amp;#x27;t anything about a privately funded and established outpost that wants to declare independence. All this time I imagined that some country would establish a base there, and grudgingly offer up some space for non-state use, and now there is this possibility of a private facility that states have to ask permission to visit? That is priceless.&lt;p&gt;[1] &lt;a href=&quot;http:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;blogs.wsj.com&amp;#x2F;chinarealtime&amp;#x2F;2016&amp;#x2F;04&amp;#x2F;29&amp;#x2F;man-on-the-moon-china-sets-lunar-mission-date&amp;#x2F;&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;http:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;blogs.wsj.com&amp;#x2F;chinarealtime&amp;#x2F;2016&amp;#x2F;04&amp;#x2F;29&amp;#x2F;man-on-the-moo...&lt;/a&gt;</text></item></parent_chain></comment><story><title>SpaceX to Send Privately Crewed Dragon Spacecraft Beyond the Moon Next Year</title><url>http://www.spacex.com/news/2017/02/27/spacex-send-privately-crewed-dragon-spacecraft-beyond-moon-next-year</url></story>