<instructions>Your goal is to analyze the following comment and estimate how highly it will be upvoted by the Hacker News community.</instructions><comment><author>notahacker</author><text>Tariffs aren&amp;#x27;t the only factor in the assumed business losses, and they&amp;#x27;re probably not the biggest.&lt;p&gt;It&amp;#x27;s the loss of things like financial services companies based in London being able to readily &amp;quot;passport&amp;quot; their services into other EU countries without relying on local branch offices somewhere in the EU that will really hurt.&lt;p&gt;When it comes to passporting rights, it&amp;#x27;s very much in the interests of the EU to tell the UK to bugger off, and let the London HQs relocate a whole bunch of jobs to Frankfurt or Paris or Tallinn if they want to carry on doing business with EU nationals. This is likely bad if you work in some London-based back office role for a big European bank; &lt;i&gt;really&lt;/i&gt; bad if you&amp;#x27;re a London-based fintech startup aiming to serve most European markets.</text><parent_chain><item><author>UK-AL</author><text>I don&amp;#x27;t understand. If they don&amp;#x27;t want job losses, they have to trade with us.&lt;p&gt;I&amp;#x27;m expecting most EU countries wanting avoid as many job losses as possible.&lt;p&gt;Doesn&amp;#x27;t really matter who&amp;#x27;s got the most leverage. The optimum strategy for both is low&amp;#x2F;no tarrifs</text></item><item><author>emn13</author><text>However, the UK economy is relatively small compared to other EU export markets.  Specifically, this means that as a percentage of the total, it&amp;#x27;s not going to move the needle nearly as much as it will in the UK.&lt;p&gt;It&amp;#x27;s definitely going to hurt, but it&amp;#x27;s nothing like the pressure that will be on the UK.</text></item><item><author>UK-AL</author><text>UK importing tons of good from EU means that the uk is generating a lot of jobs for EU countries.</text></item><item><author>mrb</author><text>&lt;i&gt;&amp;quot;The EU needs the UK&amp;quot;&lt;/i&gt;&lt;p&gt;Not true. It is the reverse because the UK runs a gigantic trade deficit: in 2014 they exported 472 billion USD, but imported 663 billion USD¹. In fact the UK is the second country in the world with the largest trade deficit (behind the US). A huge portions of UK&amp;#x27;s export go to Europe, therefore the EU has definitely more &lt;i&gt;say&lt;/i&gt; when it comes to negotiating trade deals with the UK. I would be very worried for my economic future if I were a UK citizen...&lt;p&gt;¹ &lt;a href=&quot;http:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;atlas.media.mit.edu&amp;#x2F;en&amp;#x2F;profile&amp;#x2F;country&amp;#x2F;gbr&amp;#x2F;&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;http:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;atlas.media.mit.edu&amp;#x2F;en&amp;#x2F;profile&amp;#x2F;country&amp;#x2F;gbr&amp;#x2F;&lt;/a&gt;</text></item><item><author>beninvalencia</author><text>As other comments have noted, the point is that the EU will not want to give the UK a good deal on leaving, because the EU does not want to give any encouragement to the other countries which want to leave the EU (some of which want to leave more strongly than the UK do - apparently).&lt;p&gt;Secondly, why would the UK end up with a Norway or Switzerland deal, when the UK is the 5th largest economy in the world? This is unprecedented. This isn&amp;#x27;t some one sided negotiation.&lt;p&gt;The EU needs the UK. If you sift through the garbage press, you&amp;#x27;ll see that the BDI in Germany - &amp;quot;The Voice of German Industry&amp;quot; - says that trade curbs against the UK would be &amp;quot;foolish&amp;quot;. Of course they would be! Do you know how many German cars are sold in the UK each year?&lt;p&gt;&amp;quot;About a fifth of all cars produced in Germany last year, or around 820,000 vehicles, were exported to the UK, making it the single biggest destination by volume.&amp;quot; Source: FT.com&lt;p&gt;&amp;quot;The UK is the fourth-biggest export market for German engineering companies, with sales of €6.8bn last year.&amp;quot; Source: FT.com&lt;p&gt;The scaremongering goes on even after the vote has been called...</text></item></parent_chain></comment><story><title>UK votes to leave EU</title><url>http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36615028</url></story>
<instructions>Your goal is to analyze the following comment and estimate how highly it will be upvoted by the Hacker News community.</instructions><comment><author>AnonymousPlanet</author><text>Who is talking about &lt;i&gt;ceasing&lt;/i&gt; all trade with the UK? The biggest changes will not come for net trade volume but more through a shift in supply chains. Politicians on either side will now have to make very bold promises so that businesses don&amp;#x27;t feel things are too much in limbo and pull the plug on their investments into the UK (factories, headquarters, ...).</text><parent_chain><item><author>UK-AL</author><text>I don&amp;#x27;t understand. If they don&amp;#x27;t want job losses, they have to trade with us.&lt;p&gt;I&amp;#x27;m expecting most EU countries wanting avoid as many job losses as possible.&lt;p&gt;Doesn&amp;#x27;t really matter who&amp;#x27;s got the most leverage. The optimum strategy for both is low&amp;#x2F;no tarrifs</text></item><item><author>emn13</author><text>However, the UK economy is relatively small compared to other EU export markets.  Specifically, this means that as a percentage of the total, it&amp;#x27;s not going to move the needle nearly as much as it will in the UK.&lt;p&gt;It&amp;#x27;s definitely going to hurt, but it&amp;#x27;s nothing like the pressure that will be on the UK.</text></item><item><author>UK-AL</author><text>UK importing tons of good from EU means that the uk is generating a lot of jobs for EU countries.</text></item><item><author>mrb</author><text>&lt;i&gt;&amp;quot;The EU needs the UK&amp;quot;&lt;/i&gt;&lt;p&gt;Not true. It is the reverse because the UK runs a gigantic trade deficit: in 2014 they exported 472 billion USD, but imported 663 billion USD¹. In fact the UK is the second country in the world with the largest trade deficit (behind the US). A huge portions of UK&amp;#x27;s export go to Europe, therefore the EU has definitely more &lt;i&gt;say&lt;/i&gt; when it comes to negotiating trade deals with the UK. I would be very worried for my economic future if I were a UK citizen...&lt;p&gt;¹ &lt;a href=&quot;http:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;atlas.media.mit.edu&amp;#x2F;en&amp;#x2F;profile&amp;#x2F;country&amp;#x2F;gbr&amp;#x2F;&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;http:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;atlas.media.mit.edu&amp;#x2F;en&amp;#x2F;profile&amp;#x2F;country&amp;#x2F;gbr&amp;#x2F;&lt;/a&gt;</text></item><item><author>beninvalencia</author><text>As other comments have noted, the point is that the EU will not want to give the UK a good deal on leaving, because the EU does not want to give any encouragement to the other countries which want to leave the EU (some of which want to leave more strongly than the UK do - apparently).&lt;p&gt;Secondly, why would the UK end up with a Norway or Switzerland deal, when the UK is the 5th largest economy in the world? This is unprecedented. This isn&amp;#x27;t some one sided negotiation.&lt;p&gt;The EU needs the UK. If you sift through the garbage press, you&amp;#x27;ll see that the BDI in Germany - &amp;quot;The Voice of German Industry&amp;quot; - says that trade curbs against the UK would be &amp;quot;foolish&amp;quot;. Of course they would be! Do you know how many German cars are sold in the UK each year?&lt;p&gt;&amp;quot;About a fifth of all cars produced in Germany last year, or around 820,000 vehicles, were exported to the UK, making it the single biggest destination by volume.&amp;quot; Source: FT.com&lt;p&gt;&amp;quot;The UK is the fourth-biggest export market for German engineering companies, with sales of €6.8bn last year.&amp;quot; Source: FT.com&lt;p&gt;The scaremongering goes on even after the vote has been called...</text></item></parent_chain></comment><story><title>UK votes to leave EU</title><url>http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36615028</url></story>