<instructions>Your goal is to analyze the following comment and estimate how highly it will be upvoted by the Hacker News community.</instructions><comment><author>Buttons840</author><text>There will be quite a stir in the school after TikTok disappears, and if a few kids still have access, they will get attention and other kids will want to know how. Perhaps a silver lining is that we&amp;#x27;re helping the upcoming generation understand the importance of controlling their own devices.</text><parent_chain><item><author>screye</author><text>&amp;gt; side-loading of apps on Android&lt;p&gt;90%+ users are never going to use apks. If this ban kills the network effect (the R0 of the viral infection), then the last 10% aren&amp;#x27;t going to last long either.</text></item><item><author>barathr</author><text>I wrote up a quick analysis last night here: &lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;ioc.exchange&amp;#x2F;@invisv&amp;#x2F;110387246627189198&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;ioc.exchange&amp;#x2F;@invisv&amp;#x2F;110387246627189198&lt;/a&gt;&lt;p&gt;Here are the takeaways:&lt;p&gt;* It&amp;#x27;d be easy for Apple and Google to prevent downloads of TikTok for most users, which would also include app updates, as they have a significant amount of knowledge of users&amp;#x27; locations and could prevent most users in Montana -- even those using a VPN -- from downloading the app or updating it.&lt;p&gt;* It&amp;#x27;d be very difficult for Montana to enforce the other piece of the TikTok ban -- if &amp;quot;entity&amp;quot; in the bill means any company, they&amp;#x27;re stuck: the state has little ability to prevent side-loading of apps on Android and users who want TikTok can access app repositories hosted out of state. There&amp;#x27;s virtually no way for ISPs inside Montana to surveil all user usage to find out if they&amp;#x27;re trying to download TikTok from a third-party repository, and even if they could there would be legal issues with the state mandating this.&lt;p&gt;Fundamentally, this makes user privacy and security much worse.&lt;p&gt;* Apple, Google, and ByteDance could be aggressive and use the data they have -- all three have GPS data for most or all relevant users here (i.e. TikTok users on an iPhone or Android) -- and block requests to download or use TikTok from within Montana. And they probably will, unless they get a court to block the bill.&lt;p&gt;The one thing the bill banning TikTok &lt;i&gt;doesn&amp;#x27;t&lt;/i&gt; do is the one thing that is desperately needed: actually protect user privacy, by banning the collection, aggregation, sale, and use of fine-grained user data -- by ByteDance, Meta, Google, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, or any other.</text></item></parent_chain></comment><story><title>TikTok is now banned in Montana</title><url>https://www.theverge.com/2023/5/17/23686294/montana-tiktok-ban-signed-governor-gianforte-court</url></story>
<instructions>Your goal is to analyze the following comment and estimate how highly it will be upvoted by the Hacker News community.</instructions><comment><author>knaik94</author><text>This is only a single state ban, the majority of content creators are unaffected. There is zero chance of this ban having any impact on the network effect. If anything I predict the opposite, people will become frustrated with the walled-garden of iOS, I can see people choosing Android over it for the sake of being able to sideload TikTok. I remember when there was a sudden aftermarket of iOS and Android devices when flappy bird was delisted by the developer. TikTok is obscenely bigger.</text><parent_chain><item><author>screye</author><text>&amp;gt; side-loading of apps on Android&lt;p&gt;90%+ users are never going to use apks. If this ban kills the network effect (the R0 of the viral infection), then the last 10% aren&amp;#x27;t going to last long either.</text></item><item><author>barathr</author><text>I wrote up a quick analysis last night here: &lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;ioc.exchange&amp;#x2F;@invisv&amp;#x2F;110387246627189198&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;ioc.exchange&amp;#x2F;@invisv&amp;#x2F;110387246627189198&lt;/a&gt;&lt;p&gt;Here are the takeaways:&lt;p&gt;* It&amp;#x27;d be easy for Apple and Google to prevent downloads of TikTok for most users, which would also include app updates, as they have a significant amount of knowledge of users&amp;#x27; locations and could prevent most users in Montana -- even those using a VPN -- from downloading the app or updating it.&lt;p&gt;* It&amp;#x27;d be very difficult for Montana to enforce the other piece of the TikTok ban -- if &amp;quot;entity&amp;quot; in the bill means any company, they&amp;#x27;re stuck: the state has little ability to prevent side-loading of apps on Android and users who want TikTok can access app repositories hosted out of state. There&amp;#x27;s virtually no way for ISPs inside Montana to surveil all user usage to find out if they&amp;#x27;re trying to download TikTok from a third-party repository, and even if they could there would be legal issues with the state mandating this.&lt;p&gt;Fundamentally, this makes user privacy and security much worse.&lt;p&gt;* Apple, Google, and ByteDance could be aggressive and use the data they have -- all three have GPS data for most or all relevant users here (i.e. TikTok users on an iPhone or Android) -- and block requests to download or use TikTok from within Montana. And they probably will, unless they get a court to block the bill.&lt;p&gt;The one thing the bill banning TikTok &lt;i&gt;doesn&amp;#x27;t&lt;/i&gt; do is the one thing that is desperately needed: actually protect user privacy, by banning the collection, aggregation, sale, and use of fine-grained user data -- by ByteDance, Meta, Google, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, or any other.</text></item></parent_chain></comment><story><title>TikTok is now banned in Montana</title><url>https://www.theverge.com/2023/5/17/23686294/montana-tiktok-ban-signed-governor-gianforte-court</url></story>