<instructions>Your goal is to analyze the following comment and estimate how highly it will be upvoted by the Hacker News community.</instructions><comment><author>ur-whale</author><text>&amp;gt;The fact that it doesn&amp;#x27;t make predictions any more reliably than astrology.&lt;p&gt;yup.&lt;p&gt;Physics: apply force F to projectile of mass M and know in advance where and when it&amp;#x27;ll land modulo a tiny error margin.&lt;p&gt;Economics: raise the interest rates by X%, wait unknown amount of time Y, observe state of the system after time Y, formulate complex theory as to why action led to &amp;quot;cause&amp;quot;, go write a paper about it. Get wined and dined by policy makers who see great benefit in your &amp;quot;explanation&amp;quot;.&lt;p&gt;The phenomenon is not new BTW, oracle, druids and shamans have occupied that ecological niche for as long as there has been tribes and leaders needing to justify their actions to the masses.&lt;p&gt;They just changed their names in the 20th century to sound more respectable.</text><parent_chain><item><author>guerrilla</author><text>The fact that it doesn&amp;#x27;t make predictions any more reliably than astrology.</text></item><item><author>slothtrop</author><text>What&amp;#x27;s the measure?</text></item><item><author>ur-whale</author><text>&amp;gt; the risk in that is that the field becomes disconnected from reality&lt;p&gt;it&amp;#x27;s not a risk, it&amp;#x27;s a measurable fact.</text></item><item><author>m12k</author><text>The problem is that economics as a field spans from sociology and mass-psychology (almost impossible reason about, fully quantify or prove anything in a scientific manner) to mathematics (easy to reason about, model and publish results - but at the risk of not actually modeling the real world). The incentives of the academic world nudges researchers toward the math side of the field, but the risk in that is that the field becomes disconnected from reality.</text></item><item><author>bsedlm</author><text>IMO, economics as a science is all about making up theories to &amp;#x27;scientifically&amp;#x27; (but actually, just academically) justify whatever the ruling powers want to do.&lt;p&gt;In a larger sense, academia and a big chunk of contemporary western &amp;quot;culture&amp;quot; is all about coming up with stories, narratives, explanations, mindsets (frameworks) to ignore the exploitation of humans as a resource for the sake of ill-defined (by design) notions of &amp;quot;the group&amp;quot; or &amp;quot;us all&amp;quot; when in fact the end result is a big hierarchical pyramid with little room at the top which requires lots and lots of desperate people at the bottom (by this point, the bottom is entire countries).</text></item></parent_chain></comment><story><title>Unsolved problems in economics</title><url>https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_unsolved_problems_in_economics</url></story>
<instructions>Your goal is to analyze the following comment and estimate how highly it will be upvoted by the Hacker News community.</instructions><comment><author>slothtrop</author><text>Were it reduced to &amp;quot;predictions&amp;quot;. It isn&amp;#x27;t. And people take for granted a lot of popular concepts borne of the study as though it was always known. E.g. the relationship between interest rates &amp;amp; exchange rates, supply and demand, etc.</text><parent_chain><item><author>guerrilla</author><text>The fact that it doesn&amp;#x27;t make predictions any more reliably than astrology.</text></item><item><author>slothtrop</author><text>What&amp;#x27;s the measure?</text></item><item><author>ur-whale</author><text>&amp;gt; the risk in that is that the field becomes disconnected from reality&lt;p&gt;it&amp;#x27;s not a risk, it&amp;#x27;s a measurable fact.</text></item><item><author>m12k</author><text>The problem is that economics as a field spans from sociology and mass-psychology (almost impossible reason about, fully quantify or prove anything in a scientific manner) to mathematics (easy to reason about, model and publish results - but at the risk of not actually modeling the real world). The incentives of the academic world nudges researchers toward the math side of the field, but the risk in that is that the field becomes disconnected from reality.</text></item><item><author>bsedlm</author><text>IMO, economics as a science is all about making up theories to &amp;#x27;scientifically&amp;#x27; (but actually, just academically) justify whatever the ruling powers want to do.&lt;p&gt;In a larger sense, academia and a big chunk of contemporary western &amp;quot;culture&amp;quot; is all about coming up with stories, narratives, explanations, mindsets (frameworks) to ignore the exploitation of humans as a resource for the sake of ill-defined (by design) notions of &amp;quot;the group&amp;quot; or &amp;quot;us all&amp;quot; when in fact the end result is a big hierarchical pyramid with little room at the top which requires lots and lots of desperate people at the bottom (by this point, the bottom is entire countries).</text></item></parent_chain></comment><story><title>Unsolved problems in economics</title><url>https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_unsolved_problems_in_economics</url></story>