<instructions>Your goal is to analyze the following comment and estimate how highly it will be upvoted by the Hacker News community.</instructions><comment><author>JumpCrisscross</author><text>&amp;gt; &lt;i&gt;Elon is margin called by year end is roughly 40% according to option prices&lt;/i&gt;&lt;p&gt;The margin loans will almost certainly be replaced with outside equity prior to closing.</text><parent_chain><item><author>fny</author><text>It maximizes his chance of survival either way.&lt;p&gt;The probability that Elon is margin called by year end is roughly 40% according to option prices.&lt;p&gt;- 60% chance you get fired either by Musk or investors if you don&amp;#x27;t turn the ship.
 - 40% chance you Musk is margin called and doesn&amp;#x27;t take over, but still might be fired by investors or acquired by someone else who may in turn can him.</text></item><item><author>TameAntelope</author><text>You&amp;#x27;re discounting the very real possibility that Parag is operating as if the deal will &lt;i&gt;not&lt;/i&gt; go through, and is making large strategic decisions in anticipation of that being the case.&lt;p&gt;For Parag, I don&amp;#x27;t see it &amp;quot;burning his reputation&amp;quot; at all, considering either a) he&amp;#x27;s right and will face the tall task of helming a Twitter that continues to disappoint its investors or b) he&amp;#x27;s wrong and it won&amp;#x27;t be his problem when Elon fires him next year.</text></item><item><author>Traster</author><text>So there&amp;#x27;s two options right - the first is that Parag is for some reason making big strategic decisions about the direction of the company despite the fact that we all know he&amp;#x27;ll be gone if the deal closes. Or he&amp;#x27;s making big strategic changes at the behest of the acquirers before the deal closes.&lt;p&gt;Neither of these things seem particularly kosher moves to make. The question is how to figure out which one it is.&lt;p&gt;It would seem weird for Parag to be following Musk&amp;#x27;s orders given how Musk has behaved. It also seems weird for Musk to already have the insight into the company to know specifically who to fire. There&amp;#x27;s not much advantage to making these changes now.&lt;p&gt;On the other hand, going rogue and making big strategic decisions about the company really has the potential to burn Parag&amp;#x27;s reputation for wherever he would move next.&lt;p&gt;I guess there&amp;#x27;s a third option - that Musk has expressed a specific view, Parag has a different view, but that they both think that this move is necessary anyway so just got on and did it.</text></item></parent_chain></comment><story><title>Twitter CEO fires two top executives, freezes hiring</title><url>https://www.theverge.com/2022/5/12/23068851/twitter-product-chief-kayvon-beykpour-bruce-falck-parag-agrawal</url></story>
<instructions>Your goal is to analyze the following comment and estimate how highly it will be upvoted by the Hacker News community.</instructions><comment><author>Py-o7</author><text>&amp;gt; The probability that Elon is margin called by year end is roughly 40% according to option prices.&lt;p&gt;The way tycoons frequently do this involves putting collars around a significant portion of the margined stock (and for a sizable position like this, the trade would flow through to option prices on tesla and the stock itself via delta hedging or whatever the trade desks are doing as part of the trade)</text><parent_chain><item><author>fny</author><text>It maximizes his chance of survival either way.&lt;p&gt;The probability that Elon is margin called by year end is roughly 40% according to option prices.&lt;p&gt;- 60% chance you get fired either by Musk or investors if you don&amp;#x27;t turn the ship.
 - 40% chance you Musk is margin called and doesn&amp;#x27;t take over, but still might be fired by investors or acquired by someone else who may in turn can him.</text></item><item><author>TameAntelope</author><text>You&amp;#x27;re discounting the very real possibility that Parag is operating as if the deal will &lt;i&gt;not&lt;/i&gt; go through, and is making large strategic decisions in anticipation of that being the case.&lt;p&gt;For Parag, I don&amp;#x27;t see it &amp;quot;burning his reputation&amp;quot; at all, considering either a) he&amp;#x27;s right and will face the tall task of helming a Twitter that continues to disappoint its investors or b) he&amp;#x27;s wrong and it won&amp;#x27;t be his problem when Elon fires him next year.</text></item><item><author>Traster</author><text>So there&amp;#x27;s two options right - the first is that Parag is for some reason making big strategic decisions about the direction of the company despite the fact that we all know he&amp;#x27;ll be gone if the deal closes. Or he&amp;#x27;s making big strategic changes at the behest of the acquirers before the deal closes.&lt;p&gt;Neither of these things seem particularly kosher moves to make. The question is how to figure out which one it is.&lt;p&gt;It would seem weird for Parag to be following Musk&amp;#x27;s orders given how Musk has behaved. It also seems weird for Musk to already have the insight into the company to know specifically who to fire. There&amp;#x27;s not much advantage to making these changes now.&lt;p&gt;On the other hand, going rogue and making big strategic decisions about the company really has the potential to burn Parag&amp;#x27;s reputation for wherever he would move next.&lt;p&gt;I guess there&amp;#x27;s a third option - that Musk has expressed a specific view, Parag has a different view, but that they both think that this move is necessary anyway so just got on and did it.</text></item></parent_chain></comment><story><title>Twitter CEO fires two top executives, freezes hiring</title><url>https://www.theverge.com/2022/5/12/23068851/twitter-product-chief-kayvon-beykpour-bruce-falck-parag-agrawal</url></story>