<instructions>Your goal is to analyze the following comment and estimate how highly it will be upvoted by the Hacker News community.</instructions><comment><author>ZeroGravitas</author><text>The evidence overwhelmingly suggests that interviews and interviewers are unsuitable for the task they are used for (i.e. selecting the best candidate). Assuming this applies to programming interviews as well, then your opinions of these programmers (both good and bad) could be just as incorrect as the Israeli army training example given by the psychologist in this article:&lt;p&gt;&lt;i&gt;&quot;Daniel Kahneman: How cognitive illusions blind us to reason&quot;&lt;/i&gt;
&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2011/oct/30/daniel-kahneman-cognitive-illusion-extract?newsfeed=true&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2011/oct/30/daniel-kahnema...&lt;/a&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;i&gt;&quot;Because our impressions of how well each soldier had performed were generally coherent and clear, our formal predictions were just as definite. We rarely experienced doubts or formed conflicting impressions. We were quite willing to declare: &quot;This one will never make it,&quot; &quot;That fellow is mediocre, but he should do OK,&quot; or &quot;He will be a star.&quot; We felt no need to question our forecasts, moderate them, or equivocate. If challenged, however, we were prepared to admit: &quot;But of course anything could happen.&quot;&lt;p&gt;We were willing to make that admission because, despite our definite impressions about individual candidates, we knew with certainty that our forecasts were largely useless. The evidence was overwhelming. Every few months we had a feedback session in which we learned how the cadets were doing at the officer training school and could compare our assessments against the opinions of commanders who had been monitoring them for some time. The story was always the same: our ability to predict performance at the school was negligible. Our forecasts were not much better than blind guesses.&quot;&lt;/i&gt;&lt;p&gt;Another recent article was about the author was discussed here:&lt;p&gt;&lt;i&gt;&quot;The King of Human Error&quot;&lt;/i&gt;
&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.vanityfair.com/business/features/2011/12/michael-lewis-201112.print&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;http://www.vanityfair.com/business/features/2011/12/michael-...&lt;/a&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3219240&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3219240&lt;/a&gt;</text><parent_chain><item><author>ericb</author><text>Having recently lead a round of interviewing, I wish that I could be convinced that your kinder interpretation was true.&lt;p&gt;But under moderate questioning, most interviewees don&apos;t hold up well.</text></item><item><author>dasil003</author><text>This is an illuminating example of how different assumptions lead to different definitions of what makes good code.  I&apos;m convinced that this is one reason why there is this belief that 80% of programmers are incompetent.  It&apos;s not there aren&apos;t truly incompetent devs out there, but it&apos;s also easy to assume someone is incompetent just because they were working from different constraints and experiences than you, and the way they did things just isn&apos;t immediately apparent.</text></item></parent_chain></comment><story><title>Williams: Master of the &quot;Come From&quot;</title><url>https://github.com/raganwald/homoiconic/blob/master/2011/11/COMEFROM.md</url></story>
<instructions>Your goal is to analyze the following comment and estimate how highly it will be upvoted by the Hacker News community.</instructions><comment><author>ellyagg</author><text>In sport psychology, Hull&apos;s Drive Theory predicts that introverts perform poorly under pressure. The physiological response from a job interview is as about as close to the pressure of taking the last shot in a basketball game as I&apos;ve ever experienced, and I&apos;ve experienced both. Couple this with the fact that most programmers are introverts, and I&apos;m always amazed at the credulity with which people accept these fizzbuzz claims. Is it more likely that 90 percent of experienced programmers can&apos;t program, or that something about the evaluation process is broken? I can say that I would never take a programming job where it was critical to do well under performance anxiety inducing conditions.</text><parent_chain><item><author>ericb</author><text>Having recently lead a round of interviewing, I wish that I could be convinced that your kinder interpretation was true.&lt;p&gt;But under moderate questioning, most interviewees don&apos;t hold up well.</text></item><item><author>dasil003</author><text>This is an illuminating example of how different assumptions lead to different definitions of what makes good code.  I&apos;m convinced that this is one reason why there is this belief that 80% of programmers are incompetent.  It&apos;s not there aren&apos;t truly incompetent devs out there, but it&apos;s also easy to assume someone is incompetent just because they were working from different constraints and experiences than you, and the way they did things just isn&apos;t immediately apparent.</text></item></parent_chain></comment><story><title>Williams: Master of the &quot;Come From&quot;</title><url>https://github.com/raganwald/homoiconic/blob/master/2011/11/COMEFROM.md</url></story>