<instructions>Your goal is to analyze the following comment and estimate how highly it will be upvoted by the Hacker News community.</instructions><comment><author>halhen</author><text>Having worked with data analytics in problem gambling for ten years, your dismissal of the addictiveness of these games is either uninformed or rationalized, most likely both.&lt;p&gt;Recent research in Sweden shows that some 75% of online casino turnover are from what can be loosely described as moderate risk gambling (PGSI3+) and approximately 50% from problem gambling (PGSI8+). Similarly about 25% of regular (monthly) players are problem gamblers. Of those who start playing slots monthly, 10% develop gambling problems within a year.&lt;p&gt;These are bad numbers. Really bad. And they match my experience from million-players-+ databases of actual gambling data.&lt;p&gt;The most significant marker to predict gambling problems is the amount wagered, say per month. The more someone plays, the higher the risk of that person having gambling problems. About 10% of players make up 80% of the turnover; about 0.1% about 10%. The Pareto principle at play, sure, but combined with the former it basically says that you can&amp;#x27;t trust the industry for advice on problem gambling.&lt;p&gt;This is not your safe-little-hobby thing, and the amount players who really enjoy them are much, much, much fewer than you make it sound. The majority of the industry&amp;#x27;s revenue come from people who would like to stop but can&amp;#x27;t. This is by any useful definition neither rational nor voluntary. The main claim of the industry is &amp;quot;informed choice&amp;quot; and the users&amp;#x27; responsibility to take control, despite loss of control being the very definition of the illness.&lt;p&gt;This is another tobacco-industry-like example of society slowly realizing the hidden costs being pushed by a powerful industry to unknowing and often vulnerable third parties.</text><parent_chain><item><author>smallstepforman</author><text>Disclaimer: I design the machines and games for a living.&lt;p&gt;1) regarding near miss, with basic math knowledge you can easily calculate the odds of near miss. Eg. with 2 special symbols per 30 symbol reel, for a 3x5 reel game, you have a 1:5 chance of seeing the special symbol per reel, or once per spin for a 5 reel game. The odds of a 4 symbol near miss is (1:5)^4, which is 1:625, or once every 30 minutes. With a bank of 30 machines, someone will have near miss fanfare every minute. If a bigger win is (1:5)^5, that is 1:3125 spins, or every 150 minutes per machine. That same 30 EGM bank will be paying out a large win every 5 minutes, ie. just short enough for every player on the bank to realise that the machines are “hot”. Its not planned, it just works out that way.&lt;p&gt;2) when it comes to addiction, if the stats the media are stating is correct, every 6th employee in the industry would also be addicted (using the definition of addiction used from chemical substance abuse). Since there is no measurable difference in addiction levels for employees (who spend 40hrs per week interacting with slots) and players who spend less time, the addiction argument looses its basis.&lt;p&gt;3) games adjusting payouts based on the outcome of previous games are illegal. The industry is heavily regulated (independant compliance agencies), and no operator wants to lose their license doing illegal things.&lt;p&gt;4) people have a natural tendency to arrange items, from socks and underwear in drawers, to payout symbols on the screen. There is a natural &lt;i&gt;high&lt;/i&gt; people get when they complete a sorting job. I’ve worked with 3 big slot companies, and none of them had paid psychologists on call - there is no need.&lt;p&gt;5) its a voluntery activity. There are lots of people who enjoy the activity, the excitement, the thrill, etc and they’re responsible enough to only wager less than the cost of a theatre ticket. Sometimes they finish the night with more money than they brought in. Its a regulated activity for adults.</text></item></parent_chain></comment><story><title>How slot machines are designed to be addictive</title><url>https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/datablog/ng-interactive/2017/sep/28/hooked-how-pokies-are-designed-to-be-addictive</url></story>
<instructions>Your goal is to analyze the following comment and estimate how highly it will be upvoted by the Hacker News community.</instructions><comment><author>DonHopkins</author><text>4) people have a natural tendency to arrange cocaine into nice straight lines. There is a natural &lt;i&gt;high&lt;/i&gt; people get when they complete a snorting job. I&amp;#x27;ve worked with 3 big coke dealers, and none of them had paid physicians on call - there is no need.</text><parent_chain><item><author>smallstepforman</author><text>Disclaimer: I design the machines and games for a living.&lt;p&gt;1) regarding near miss, with basic math knowledge you can easily calculate the odds of near miss. Eg. with 2 special symbols per 30 symbol reel, for a 3x5 reel game, you have a 1:5 chance of seeing the special symbol per reel, or once per spin for a 5 reel game. The odds of a 4 symbol near miss is (1:5)^4, which is 1:625, or once every 30 minutes. With a bank of 30 machines, someone will have near miss fanfare every minute. If a bigger win is (1:5)^5, that is 1:3125 spins, or every 150 minutes per machine. That same 30 EGM bank will be paying out a large win every 5 minutes, ie. just short enough for every player on the bank to realise that the machines are “hot”. Its not planned, it just works out that way.&lt;p&gt;2) when it comes to addiction, if the stats the media are stating is correct, every 6th employee in the industry would also be addicted (using the definition of addiction used from chemical substance abuse). Since there is no measurable difference in addiction levels for employees (who spend 40hrs per week interacting with slots) and players who spend less time, the addiction argument looses its basis.&lt;p&gt;3) games adjusting payouts based on the outcome of previous games are illegal. The industry is heavily regulated (independant compliance agencies), and no operator wants to lose their license doing illegal things.&lt;p&gt;4) people have a natural tendency to arrange items, from socks and underwear in drawers, to payout symbols on the screen. There is a natural &lt;i&gt;high&lt;/i&gt; people get when they complete a sorting job. I’ve worked with 3 big slot companies, and none of them had paid psychologists on call - there is no need.&lt;p&gt;5) its a voluntery activity. There are lots of people who enjoy the activity, the excitement, the thrill, etc and they’re responsible enough to only wager less than the cost of a theatre ticket. Sometimes they finish the night with more money than they brought in. Its a regulated activity for adults.</text></item></parent_chain></comment><story><title>How slot machines are designed to be addictive</title><url>https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/datablog/ng-interactive/2017/sep/28/hooked-how-pokies-are-designed-to-be-addictive</url></story>