<instructions>Your goal is to analyze the following comment and estimate how highly it will be upvoted by the Hacker News community.</instructions><comment><author>lm28469</author><text>&amp;gt; It is millenia just from the sun to the edge of our solar system&lt;p&gt;?&lt;p&gt;We sent two probes in the 70s and they&amp;#x27;re already out of our solar system, they&amp;#x27;re definitely going waaaay slower than the speed of light&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.bbc.com&amp;#x2F;news&amp;#x2F;science-environment-46502820&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.bbc.com&amp;#x2F;news&amp;#x2F;science-environment-46502820&lt;/a&gt;</text><parent_chain><item><author>mjburgess</author><text>The speed of light essentially prohibits space travel.&lt;p&gt;The fastest possible speed for any material object to travel at is &lt;i&gt;incredibly&lt;/i&gt; slow compared to any meaningful distance. It is millenia just from the sun to the edge of our solar system, let alone to anything &amp;quot;near by&amp;quot;.&lt;p&gt;The universe is not the kind of place where living things can travel &amp;quot;between worlds&amp;quot;. This is scifi -- and it is no coincidence UFO sightings peak in the era of Star Treck, and space races.&lt;p&gt;P(All life is organic | All known chemistry) ~= Very High&lt;p&gt;P(All intelligent organic life degrades) ~= Very High&lt;p&gt;thef.&lt;p&gt;P(Alien Life Lasts Long Enough To Travel | Above ) ~= Very Low&lt;p&gt;Physics &amp;amp; Chemistry basically rule out alien contact.&lt;p&gt;Once you insert these priors into your reasoning the &amp;quot;D - it&amp;#x27;s aliens!&amp;quot; becomes extraordinarily implausible.&lt;p&gt;It&amp;#x27;s remarkable this author finds D-Aliens more likely than D-SecretSociety. The latter only requires plausible localised advancements in knowledge and conspiracy; the former requires believing everything we know about biochemistry and physics to be radically incorrect.</text></item><item><author>BoardsOfCanada</author><text>So I&amp;#x27;m reluctant to post this but here we go..&lt;p&gt;In this case it is most probably high competence. Coming out of WW2 it wasn&amp;#x27;t difficult to take national security extremely serious. I thought that there wasn&amp;#x27;t much to the crash(es) near Corona in 1947 but the witness testimonies are just very very convincing, I actually changed my mind after reading up on the subject recently (before I would have said I don&amp;#x27;t know anything about it but I&amp;#x27;d be amazed if it was true).&lt;p&gt;A lot of observations had been made the weeks previous to the crash and gathered a lot of headlines, including the one in Portland that coined the expression &amp;quot;flying saucer&amp;quot;. The person in the photo with the weather balloon is on record saying that it was not a weather balloon, that was a cover story, as are a lot of other people involved in the handling of wreckage and bodies in the days after. These are people that didn&amp;#x27;t come forward but had to be found after several decades.&lt;p&gt;And this was the press release by the military before it was withdrawn and replaced with the balloon story:&lt;p&gt;&amp;quot;The many rumors regarding the flying disc became a reality yesterday when the intelligence office of the 509th Bomb Group of the Eighth Air Force, Roswell Army Air Field, was fortunate enough to gain possession of a disc through the cooperation of one of the local ranchers and the sheriff&amp;#x27;s office of Chaves County&amp;quot;&lt;p&gt;I encourage anyone who is interested to look at Stanton Friedman&amp;#x27;s interviews with witnesses, they are on youtube.</text></item></parent_chain></comment><story><title>UFOs shows government competence as either surprisingly high or low</title><url>https://www.overcomingbias.com/2021/05/ufos-say-govt-competence-is-either-surprisingly-high-or-surprisingly-low.html</url></story>
<instructions>Your goal is to analyze the following comment and estimate how highly it will be upvoted by the Hacker News community.</instructions><comment><author>mrfusion</author><text>You seem to ignore Von nuaman (sp) probes, generation ships, non carbon based life. And that’s before we consider that our understanding of physics may not be complete.</text><parent_chain><item><author>mjburgess</author><text>The speed of light essentially prohibits space travel.&lt;p&gt;The fastest possible speed for any material object to travel at is &lt;i&gt;incredibly&lt;/i&gt; slow compared to any meaningful distance. It is millenia just from the sun to the edge of our solar system, let alone to anything &amp;quot;near by&amp;quot;.&lt;p&gt;The universe is not the kind of place where living things can travel &amp;quot;between worlds&amp;quot;. This is scifi -- and it is no coincidence UFO sightings peak in the era of Star Treck, and space races.&lt;p&gt;P(All life is organic | All known chemistry) ~= Very High&lt;p&gt;P(All intelligent organic life degrades) ~= Very High&lt;p&gt;thef.&lt;p&gt;P(Alien Life Lasts Long Enough To Travel | Above ) ~= Very Low&lt;p&gt;Physics &amp;amp; Chemistry basically rule out alien contact.&lt;p&gt;Once you insert these priors into your reasoning the &amp;quot;D - it&amp;#x27;s aliens!&amp;quot; becomes extraordinarily implausible.&lt;p&gt;It&amp;#x27;s remarkable this author finds D-Aliens more likely than D-SecretSociety. The latter only requires plausible localised advancements in knowledge and conspiracy; the former requires believing everything we know about biochemistry and physics to be radically incorrect.</text></item><item><author>BoardsOfCanada</author><text>So I&amp;#x27;m reluctant to post this but here we go..&lt;p&gt;In this case it is most probably high competence. Coming out of WW2 it wasn&amp;#x27;t difficult to take national security extremely serious. I thought that there wasn&amp;#x27;t much to the crash(es) near Corona in 1947 but the witness testimonies are just very very convincing, I actually changed my mind after reading up on the subject recently (before I would have said I don&amp;#x27;t know anything about it but I&amp;#x27;d be amazed if it was true).&lt;p&gt;A lot of observations had been made the weeks previous to the crash and gathered a lot of headlines, including the one in Portland that coined the expression &amp;quot;flying saucer&amp;quot;. The person in the photo with the weather balloon is on record saying that it was not a weather balloon, that was a cover story, as are a lot of other people involved in the handling of wreckage and bodies in the days after. These are people that didn&amp;#x27;t come forward but had to be found after several decades.&lt;p&gt;And this was the press release by the military before it was withdrawn and replaced with the balloon story:&lt;p&gt;&amp;quot;The many rumors regarding the flying disc became a reality yesterday when the intelligence office of the 509th Bomb Group of the Eighth Air Force, Roswell Army Air Field, was fortunate enough to gain possession of a disc through the cooperation of one of the local ranchers and the sheriff&amp;#x27;s office of Chaves County&amp;quot;&lt;p&gt;I encourage anyone who is interested to look at Stanton Friedman&amp;#x27;s interviews with witnesses, they are on youtube.</text></item></parent_chain></comment><story><title>UFOs shows government competence as either surprisingly high or low</title><url>https://www.overcomingbias.com/2021/05/ufos-say-govt-competence-is-either-surprisingly-high-or-surprisingly-low.html</url></story>