<instructions>Your goal is to analyze the following comment and estimate how highly it will be upvoted by the Hacker News community.</instructions><comment><author>maybelsyrup</author><text>&amp;gt; Nobody wants World War 3.&lt;p&gt;Small point but this isn&amp;#x27;t exactly true, especially among US policymakers and media people. All you need to do here is read the chorus of people in official &amp;#x2F; corporate media going &amp;quot;nuclear war would be bad, but [...]&amp;quot;. You can also rewind to the enormous shit-fit Washington types threw last summer when Biden pulled out of Afghanistan, or go even further back to the Iraq war.&lt;p&gt;Washington is full of chickenhawk warmongers dying to send other people&amp;#x27;s children into battle, consequences be damned. It&amp;#x27;s the rare thing that is really bipartisan, too. A lot of people&amp;#x27;s careers depend on support for World War III, so they find a way to be okay with it.</text><parent_chain><item><author>traceroute66</author><text>&amp;gt; a lot of people seem ok with punishing Russian individuals for the actions of the government.&lt;p&gt;Its easy to say that but you have to look at the bigger picture.&lt;p&gt;It&amp;#x27;s easy to say &amp;quot;just punish the government &amp;#x2F; the oligarchs&amp;quot;, but as most Westerners know, these people have become extraordinarily adept at hiding their money and distributing their assets. So it is very difficult indeed to target them per-se, hence you need to make it difficult to move money&amp;#x2F;assets around, sell assets and gain new money&amp;#x2F;assets.&lt;p&gt;You also need to look at the even bigger problem. How do we stop Russia attacking Ukraine ?&lt;p&gt;Nobody wants World War 3.  Even the Americans who are usually keen to test out their latest toys are being remarkably disciplined about sitting on their hands.&lt;p&gt;So, you don&amp;#x27;t want to engage in a direct fight with the Russians, what&amp;#x27;s left on the table ?&lt;p&gt;Diplomacy ? Well, they&amp;#x27;ve tried and are trying, but not much light at the end of that tunnel as of yet.&lt;p&gt;So your only option left is to accept that running a war needs two things, money and supplies.  If both of those dry up then its only a matter of time before the war grinds to a halt too.&lt;p&gt;Hence you end up doing things that affect banks, the central bank, transport and logistics.&lt;p&gt;Regrettably its not just about targeting the military and the government, you have to target the supporting structures too (food, parts, consumables), hence you need to go big and go fast on sanctions.&lt;p&gt;Yes your average Russian will get caught up in the sanctions.  Yes it will be difficult and unpleasant for families.&lt;p&gt;But frankly the alternative, full-blown war across Europe and the potential for nuclear bombs being used is unfathomably worse for everyone both inside Russia and outside.</text></item><item><author>bsedlm</author><text>a lot of people seem ok with punishing Russian individuals for the actions of the government.&lt;p&gt;maybe these people have grown in better functioning democracies (unlike Russia or my own country) so they act as if the people were well represented by their governments; unlike reality for most countries with a serious corruption problem.</text></item><item><author>therusskiy</author><text>I managed to escape the country yesterday, had to flight to Egypt of all places, because ALL (even business) tickets were sold out.
The recent news is that starting March 6 all international flights are suspended, the trap has closed.&lt;p&gt;The disheartening thing is that even if you never supported Putin, other countries treat you as enemy.&lt;p&gt;I am at Georgia now and banks refuse to open bank accounts to Russians, and I need one to continue working as a remote dev for US companies. Older generation (who are pro-Russian) suggested being careful around young people as they may be hostile to Russians, even those who are running away from Putin.&lt;p&gt;A lot of my IT friends have fled the country, almost everyone who could. My heart is bleeding thinking of friends who wanted to leave on March 9, not sure what they can do now.</text></item></parent_chain></comment><story><title>Russians are trying to flee – data from Google Trends</title><url>https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2022/03/04/russians-are-trying-to-flee-putins-chaos</url></story>
<instructions>Your goal is to analyze the following comment and estimate how highly it will be upvoted by the Hacker News community.</instructions><comment><author>skybrian</author><text>Although it supports the Ukrainians and that’s important, I don’t see how sanctions &lt;i&gt;reduce&lt;/i&gt; the likelihood of wider war? It is, in its way, an escalation, though a safer one than directly entering the conflict.&lt;p&gt;It seems Putin sprung this on the rest of Russia as a surprise decision. (Of course the signs were there.)  Did he bother to get the support of the oligarchs or anyone else first? It’s not at all clear he has anyone’s support; he just has their obedience.&lt;p&gt;Morally speaking, this looks rather simple: it’s Putin’s big mistake. To the extent that others failed to stop the invasion, it was by failing to influence him. But a paranoid and isolated dictator isn’t easily influenced.&lt;p&gt;Punishing other Russians for this, particularly outside Russia and Ukraine, often has no purpose and is a form of cruelty.</text><parent_chain><item><author>traceroute66</author><text>&amp;gt; a lot of people seem ok with punishing Russian individuals for the actions of the government.&lt;p&gt;Its easy to say that but you have to look at the bigger picture.&lt;p&gt;It&amp;#x27;s easy to say &amp;quot;just punish the government &amp;#x2F; the oligarchs&amp;quot;, but as most Westerners know, these people have become extraordinarily adept at hiding their money and distributing their assets. So it is very difficult indeed to target them per-se, hence you need to make it difficult to move money&amp;#x2F;assets around, sell assets and gain new money&amp;#x2F;assets.&lt;p&gt;You also need to look at the even bigger problem. How do we stop Russia attacking Ukraine ?&lt;p&gt;Nobody wants World War 3.  Even the Americans who are usually keen to test out their latest toys are being remarkably disciplined about sitting on their hands.&lt;p&gt;So, you don&amp;#x27;t want to engage in a direct fight with the Russians, what&amp;#x27;s left on the table ?&lt;p&gt;Diplomacy ? Well, they&amp;#x27;ve tried and are trying, but not much light at the end of that tunnel as of yet.&lt;p&gt;So your only option left is to accept that running a war needs two things, money and supplies.  If both of those dry up then its only a matter of time before the war grinds to a halt too.&lt;p&gt;Hence you end up doing things that affect banks, the central bank, transport and logistics.&lt;p&gt;Regrettably its not just about targeting the military and the government, you have to target the supporting structures too (food, parts, consumables), hence you need to go big and go fast on sanctions.&lt;p&gt;Yes your average Russian will get caught up in the sanctions.  Yes it will be difficult and unpleasant for families.&lt;p&gt;But frankly the alternative, full-blown war across Europe and the potential for nuclear bombs being used is unfathomably worse for everyone both inside Russia and outside.</text></item><item><author>bsedlm</author><text>a lot of people seem ok with punishing Russian individuals for the actions of the government.&lt;p&gt;maybe these people have grown in better functioning democracies (unlike Russia or my own country) so they act as if the people were well represented by their governments; unlike reality for most countries with a serious corruption problem.</text></item><item><author>therusskiy</author><text>I managed to escape the country yesterday, had to flight to Egypt of all places, because ALL (even business) tickets were sold out.
The recent news is that starting March 6 all international flights are suspended, the trap has closed.&lt;p&gt;The disheartening thing is that even if you never supported Putin, other countries treat you as enemy.&lt;p&gt;I am at Georgia now and banks refuse to open bank accounts to Russians, and I need one to continue working as a remote dev for US companies. Older generation (who are pro-Russian) suggested being careful around young people as they may be hostile to Russians, even those who are running away from Putin.&lt;p&gt;A lot of my IT friends have fled the country, almost everyone who could. My heart is bleeding thinking of friends who wanted to leave on March 9, not sure what they can do now.</text></item></parent_chain></comment><story><title>Russians are trying to flee – data from Google Trends</title><url>https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2022/03/04/russians-are-trying-to-flee-putins-chaos</url></story>