<instructions>Your goal is to analyze the following comment and estimate how highly it will be upvoted by the Hacker News community.</instructions><comment><author>taylodl</author><text>Commercial Real Estate is a completely different animal than residential real estate. Yes, you can mortgage commercial properties but the downpayment requirements are &lt;i&gt;significantly&lt;/i&gt; higher and the term of the loan is &lt;i&gt;significantly&lt;/i&gt; shorter.&lt;p&gt;Most of the entities on the hook for paying back the bank are commercial real estate development firms. As such they often have a mixed portfolio of residential (think apartments), office, retail, and entertainment properties. Offices are further divided into small business, professional services (doctors, dentist), and general office space. Unless their portfolio is extremely focused and not diversified, then they&amp;#x27;ll be alright.&lt;p&gt;Fortune 500 companies also aren&amp;#x27;t letting go of their iconic office buildings, as the building itself is an icon for the company.&lt;p&gt;Given all these factors, I think the idea that commercial real estate is going to crash and burn and that the banks are going to be left holding the bag are being quite a bit overblown.</text><parent_chain><item><author>0xADADA</author><text>Banks also have a &lt;i&gt;MASSIVE&lt;/i&gt; amount of CRE Commercial Real Estate (office buildings) that are completely empty, without lease payments flowing in, and since COVID-19 has shifted knowledge work to remote-first in many cities, these office will be empty for a long time.&lt;p&gt;The CRE bubble is going to burst in the next 18 months as the 5-year commercial office leases signed in 2017+ are all going to come to an end, and the banks will be realizing these losses starting now and the next few years. Its going to get ugly soon.</text></item></parent_chain></comment><story><title>US banks have $620B of unrealized losses on their books</title><url>https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2023-svb-exposed-risks-banks/</url></story>
<instructions>Your goal is to analyze the following comment and estimate how highly it will be upvoted by the Hacker News community.</instructions><comment><author>gumby</author><text>This is right on, and I normally roll my eyes at comments that single factor X means we’re all doomed.&lt;p&gt;But the looming CRE crisis isn’t making it into the mainstream consciousness, even though its big driver (WFH and its ramified impact) &lt;i&gt;is&lt;/i&gt; being well reported on.</text><parent_chain><item><author>0xADADA</author><text>Banks also have a &lt;i&gt;MASSIVE&lt;/i&gt; amount of CRE Commercial Real Estate (office buildings) that are completely empty, without lease payments flowing in, and since COVID-19 has shifted knowledge work to remote-first in many cities, these office will be empty for a long time.&lt;p&gt;The CRE bubble is going to burst in the next 18 months as the 5-year commercial office leases signed in 2017+ are all going to come to an end, and the banks will be realizing these losses starting now and the next few years. Its going to get ugly soon.</text></item></parent_chain></comment><story><title>US banks have $620B of unrealized losses on their books</title><url>https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2023-svb-exposed-risks-banks/</url></story>