<instructions>Your goal is to analyze the following comment and estimate how highly it will be upvoted by the Hacker News community.</instructions><comment><author>nateberkopec</author><text>To believe this is true, you must also believe that efficient markets do not really exist.&lt;p&gt;Imagine if a publicly traded company announced that in 1 years time, they would buy back half of their outstanding shares (not a great analogy but its the best I can think of). What would happen to the stock price?&lt;p&gt;All securities prices in publicly traded markets are essentially priced as discounted cash flows over the next 20-30 years. The current price reflects all available public information about those cash flows.&lt;p&gt;I&amp;#x27;m not saying efficient markets is 100% true all of the time, of course the world demonstrates that it isn&amp;#x27;t, but the level of disbelief you have to have in the hypothesis to believe that a well-known public event affecting Bitcoin will result in a 3x price increase is lunacy, IMO.</text><parent_chain><item><author>andrewla</author><text>If you&amp;#x27;re wondering why your friends who are into cryptocurrency are in a tizzy, it&amp;#x27;s related to a model called &amp;quot;Stock-To-Flow&amp;quot; that attempts to post-facto explain the price of Bitcoin (and other liquid assets, like gold) in terms of the rate of production.&lt;p&gt;Proposed by PlanB [1] it is a source of constant derision&amp;#x2F;hope&amp;#x2F;skepticism&amp;#x2F;dismissal by the Bitcoin community, and the halving of the reward gives it its first non-backtested novel prediction.&lt;p&gt;Roughly it predicts [2] that the price will settle into a band around 30,000 USD sometime next year.&lt;p&gt;[1] &lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;twitter.com&amp;#x2F;100trillionUSD&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;twitter.com&amp;#x2F;100trillionUSD&lt;/a&gt;&lt;p&gt;[2] &lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;cointelegraph.com&amp;#x2F;news&amp;#x2F;bitcoin-halving-will-be-make-or-break-for-stock-to-flow-model-planb&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;cointelegraph.com&amp;#x2F;news&amp;#x2F;bitcoin-halving-will-be-make-...&lt;/a&gt;</text></item></parent_chain></comment><story><title>Bitcoin Halving Just Occured</title><url>https://www.blockchain.com/btc/block/000000000000000000024bead8df69990852c202db0e0097c1a12ea637d7e96d</url></story>
<instructions>Your goal is to analyze the following comment and estimate how highly it will be upvoted by the Hacker News community.</instructions><comment><author>liquidify</author><text>I don&amp;#x27;t agree that this is the reason that people are in a &amp;quot;tizzy&amp;quot;.  To me this instance is an instance where a shock enters the system.&lt;p&gt;Think of it like a differential equation where a steady state is changed...  like a spring that has been held in a certain position is released.  There will be a shock as the system seeks to find a new equilibrium.&lt;p&gt;The fact that the system has been shocked means that there is some predictable craziness that will happen soon.  It is basically guaranteed fun no matter how it turns out.&lt;p&gt;I&amp;#x27;ve been following bitcoin a long time, and was excited for the halving.  But I&amp;#x27;d never heard of the model you described and could care less about it.</text><parent_chain><item><author>andrewla</author><text>If you&amp;#x27;re wondering why your friends who are into cryptocurrency are in a tizzy, it&amp;#x27;s related to a model called &amp;quot;Stock-To-Flow&amp;quot; that attempts to post-facto explain the price of Bitcoin (and other liquid assets, like gold) in terms of the rate of production.&lt;p&gt;Proposed by PlanB [1] it is a source of constant derision&amp;#x2F;hope&amp;#x2F;skepticism&amp;#x2F;dismissal by the Bitcoin community, and the halving of the reward gives it its first non-backtested novel prediction.&lt;p&gt;Roughly it predicts [2] that the price will settle into a band around 30,000 USD sometime next year.&lt;p&gt;[1] &lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;twitter.com&amp;#x2F;100trillionUSD&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;twitter.com&amp;#x2F;100trillionUSD&lt;/a&gt;&lt;p&gt;[2] &lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;cointelegraph.com&amp;#x2F;news&amp;#x2F;bitcoin-halving-will-be-make-or-break-for-stock-to-flow-model-planb&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;cointelegraph.com&amp;#x2F;news&amp;#x2F;bitcoin-halving-will-be-make-...&lt;/a&gt;</text></item></parent_chain></comment><story><title>Bitcoin Halving Just Occured</title><url>https://www.blockchain.com/btc/block/000000000000000000024bead8df69990852c202db0e0097c1a12ea637d7e96d</url></story>