<instructions>Your goal is to analyze the following comment and estimate how highly it will be upvoted by the Hacker News community.</instructions><comment><author>gzu</author><text>Don&amp;#x27;t forget the non-emotional constant demand for Apple shares caused by stock buybacks combined with a 7% weight in the S&amp;amp;P 500.  Every new dollar invested in an index tracking ETF&amp;#x2F;mutual fund needs to buy 7c worth of Apple stock from &lt;i&gt;someone&lt;/i&gt;.&lt;p&gt;It&amp;#x27;s a huge supply&amp;#x2F;demand problem.  At what price will &lt;i&gt;someone&lt;/i&gt; forego Apple shares?  What happens when Apple is 10%, 15% etc of the S&amp;amp;P 500 index?  Where will these shares to sell come from?  At this point, why would anyone holding Apple shares outright sell?&lt;p&gt;This demand may only lead to a self reinforcing feedback loop where: a greater market cap (3T?) -&amp;gt; higher index weight (10+%) -&amp;gt; greater buying pressure -&amp;gt; more shares locked up in index funds (not available for sale) -&amp;gt; repeat&lt;p&gt;This is explains why there has been increasingly volatile movements in Apple shares.  This lack of share liquidity works both directions: buying and selling.  Not enough &lt;i&gt;active&lt;/i&gt; investors are available to step in when passive investors (who now make up an enormous portion of capital markets) decide to start selling index tracking funds in bulk.</text><parent_chain><item><author>shadowtree</author><text>It&amp;#x27;s so interesting how people try to rationalize modern valuations by connecting them to some other metric (P&amp;#x2F;E, growth, etc.).&lt;p&gt;None of that is true.&lt;p&gt;Stock price presents demand for the stock. Demand is emotional. The stock market represent (rich) people&amp;#x27;s feelings.&lt;p&gt;I want to own a piece of Apple, because a bunch of others want a piece of Apple.&lt;p&gt;Tesla&amp;#x27;s stock is exhibit A for this.&lt;p&gt;If there was a direct correlation between some metric and stock price, every trade would be automated.</text></item></parent_chain></comment><story><title>Apple becomes first U.S. company to reach a $2T market cap</title><url>https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/19/apple-reaches-2-trillion-market-cap.html</url></story>
<instructions>Your goal is to analyze the following comment and estimate how highly it will be upvoted by the Hacker News community.</instructions><comment><author>safog</author><text>Ultimately price and (some tenuous definition of) value can diverge in the short term but over the long run they _will_ converge. Apple&amp;#x27;s in a short term bubble. That&amp;#x27;s not to say they aren&amp;#x27;t a great company in the long term but I really question the wisdom of paying 462$ or whatever for their stock at this point in time.</text><parent_chain><item><author>shadowtree</author><text>It&amp;#x27;s so interesting how people try to rationalize modern valuations by connecting them to some other metric (P&amp;#x2F;E, growth, etc.).&lt;p&gt;None of that is true.&lt;p&gt;Stock price presents demand for the stock. Demand is emotional. The stock market represent (rich) people&amp;#x27;s feelings.&lt;p&gt;I want to own a piece of Apple, because a bunch of others want a piece of Apple.&lt;p&gt;Tesla&amp;#x27;s stock is exhibit A for this.&lt;p&gt;If there was a direct correlation between some metric and stock price, every trade would be automated.</text></item></parent_chain></comment><story><title>Apple becomes first U.S. company to reach a $2T market cap</title><url>https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/19/apple-reaches-2-trillion-market-cap.html</url></story>