<instructions>Your goal is to analyze the following comment and estimate how highly it will be upvoted by the Hacker News community.</instructions><comment><author>martneumann</author><text>Apart from weather, a big issue outside the USA is also car infrastructure. The US is extremely car centric with large, straight, easy-to-maneuver roads everywhere. Here in Germany, it&amp;#x27;s different. We have rather narrow, chaotic roads, unclear signage, &amp;quot;right car has right of way&amp;quot; traffic rules which sometimes get resolved via hand signs, no jaywalking laws, etc.&lt;p&gt;I am still hoping for fewer cars on the road overall. The car itself is inefficient and hopefully on its way out.</text><parent_chain><item><author>bitsoda</author><text>Do you live in a place with weather? I think we&amp;#x27;ll get there eventually, but my timeline is closer to 20 years. I just don&amp;#x27;t see AVs nailing that last 1% for true peace of mind in places like the Eastern USA with torrential downpours in South Florida or snow and icy conditions in New England.&lt;p&gt;I hope I&amp;#x27;m wrong though, I would prefer it if my kids and other road users didn&amp;#x27;t have to drive.</text></item><item><author>jliptzin</author><text>Definitely within 10 years. 50 years is insane.&lt;p&gt;Just the other day my Tesla model 3 drove me home from a restaurant 10 miles away, at night, with plenty of other cars on the road, through side streets and on a highway, &lt;i&gt;without intervention&lt;/i&gt;. Did it do weird things? Sure, but nothing that made me nervous enough to intervene. Compared to just a year ago when it was still phantom breaking on the highway and couldn’t do side streets at all. All the people saying it’s still decades away don’t realize how quickly things are progressing.&lt;p&gt;10 years is a long time and progress is not always linear. Think about what happened to the internet between 1995 and 2005.</text></item><item><author>gambiting</author><text>&amp;gt;&amp;gt;I know we&amp;#x27;ll have driverless cars within ten-years&lt;p&gt;That&amp;#x27;s sarcastic, right? Like &amp;quot;we&amp;#x27;ll have fusion power in 50 years&amp;quot;? Except that we might actually have fusion power in 50 years and I don&amp;#x27;t actually think we&amp;#x27;ll have truly driverless cars within 50 years.</text></item><item><author>moritonal</author><text>I know we&amp;#x27;ll have driverless cars within ten-years, and I know there will be benefits, but has any government yet started planning for the relatively near-instant transformation of the Trucker and Taxi industry once this &amp;quot;works&amp;quot;?&lt;p&gt;The fall-out is going to be intense:&lt;p&gt;* Fuel-stops are going to change completely, what&amp;#x27;s the point of half of the motels on long-haul drives when your car can drive all night and likely recharge automatically at a stop-point.&lt;p&gt;* Reduced downtime on goods movement will impact uptime in every other industry.&lt;p&gt;* Autonomous-vehicle-only lanes that line up with traffic timings creating a two-tier driving experience&lt;p&gt;* Huge influx of unemployed drivers who I guess might get &amp;quot;chauffeur&amp;quot; style jobs.&lt;p&gt;* Security issues, complex legal issues when there&amp;#x27;s accidents.&lt;p&gt;* Fake taxi&amp;#x27;s that drive a customer into a bad experience for &amp;quot;lols&amp;quot;.&lt;p&gt;I know all this is extreme, but if history is studying the past to understand the present, science-fiction is studying the &amp;quot;future&amp;quot; to predict the problems of tomorrow.</text></item></parent_chain></comment><story><title>Waymo begins driverless rides in San Francisco</title><url>https://blog.waymo.com/2022/03/taking-our-next-step-in-city-by-bay.html</url></story>
<instructions>Your goal is to analyze the following comment and estimate how highly it will be upvoted by the Hacker News community.</instructions><comment><author>supportlocal4h</author><text>Isn&amp;#x27;t that like saying that motorcycles will happen eventually but not anytime soon because: weather?&lt;p&gt;Traditional cars with drivers haven&amp;#x27;t solved the weather problem 100%. But they are here now. Sometimes we ban them in some conditions, but they are a game changer the rest if the time.</text><parent_chain><item><author>bitsoda</author><text>Do you live in a place with weather? I think we&amp;#x27;ll get there eventually, but my timeline is closer to 20 years. I just don&amp;#x27;t see AVs nailing that last 1% for true peace of mind in places like the Eastern USA with torrential downpours in South Florida or snow and icy conditions in New England.&lt;p&gt;I hope I&amp;#x27;m wrong though, I would prefer it if my kids and other road users didn&amp;#x27;t have to drive.</text></item><item><author>jliptzin</author><text>Definitely within 10 years. 50 years is insane.&lt;p&gt;Just the other day my Tesla model 3 drove me home from a restaurant 10 miles away, at night, with plenty of other cars on the road, through side streets and on a highway, &lt;i&gt;without intervention&lt;/i&gt;. Did it do weird things? Sure, but nothing that made me nervous enough to intervene. Compared to just a year ago when it was still phantom breaking on the highway and couldn’t do side streets at all. All the people saying it’s still decades away don’t realize how quickly things are progressing.&lt;p&gt;10 years is a long time and progress is not always linear. Think about what happened to the internet between 1995 and 2005.</text></item><item><author>gambiting</author><text>&amp;gt;&amp;gt;I know we&amp;#x27;ll have driverless cars within ten-years&lt;p&gt;That&amp;#x27;s sarcastic, right? Like &amp;quot;we&amp;#x27;ll have fusion power in 50 years&amp;quot;? Except that we might actually have fusion power in 50 years and I don&amp;#x27;t actually think we&amp;#x27;ll have truly driverless cars within 50 years.</text></item><item><author>moritonal</author><text>I know we&amp;#x27;ll have driverless cars within ten-years, and I know there will be benefits, but has any government yet started planning for the relatively near-instant transformation of the Trucker and Taxi industry once this &amp;quot;works&amp;quot;?&lt;p&gt;The fall-out is going to be intense:&lt;p&gt;* Fuel-stops are going to change completely, what&amp;#x27;s the point of half of the motels on long-haul drives when your car can drive all night and likely recharge automatically at a stop-point.&lt;p&gt;* Reduced downtime on goods movement will impact uptime in every other industry.&lt;p&gt;* Autonomous-vehicle-only lanes that line up with traffic timings creating a two-tier driving experience&lt;p&gt;* Huge influx of unemployed drivers who I guess might get &amp;quot;chauffeur&amp;quot; style jobs.&lt;p&gt;* Security issues, complex legal issues when there&amp;#x27;s accidents.&lt;p&gt;* Fake taxi&amp;#x27;s that drive a customer into a bad experience for &amp;quot;lols&amp;quot;.&lt;p&gt;I know all this is extreme, but if history is studying the past to understand the present, science-fiction is studying the &amp;quot;future&amp;quot; to predict the problems of tomorrow.</text></item></parent_chain></comment><story><title>Waymo begins driverless rides in San Francisco</title><url>https://blog.waymo.com/2022/03/taking-our-next-step-in-city-by-bay.html</url></story>