<instructions>Your goal is to analyze the following comment and estimate how highly it will be upvoted by the Hacker News community.</instructions><comment><author>mrb</author><text>They had to be on the conservative side, so they assumed a doubling every 9-12 months. In reality we have seen one doubling every ~34 months in the last 14 years. In 2005 I bought 250GB HDDs for $110 each. In 2018 you can find 8TB HDDs for $150 each. That&amp;#x27;s 5 doublings.&lt;p&gt;So with 5 doublings, if we saw datasets on the order of 2^50 back then, we should see datasets on the order of 2^55 today (30 PB). And sure enough, here is a computer with a 30 PB global filesystem: &lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.fujitsu.com&amp;#x2F;downloads&amp;#x2F;TC&amp;#x2F;sc11&amp;#x2F;k-computer-system-overview-sc11.pdf&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.fujitsu.com&amp;#x2F;downloads&amp;#x2F;TC&amp;#x2F;sc11&amp;#x2F;k-computer-system-...&lt;/a&gt;&lt;p&gt;So another 9 doublings to go to 2^64 bytes. With one every 34 months, this should happen in 25 years (2043). But again, if you are a filesystem developer you should be on the conservative side and assume it might double every ~12 months.</text><parent_chain><item><author>vbezhenar</author><text>&amp;gt; Some customers already have datasets on the order of a petabyte, or 2^50 bytes. Thus the 64-bit capacity limit of 264 bytes is only 14 doublings away. Moore&amp;#x27;s Law
for storage predicts that capacity will continue to double every 9-12 months, which means we&amp;#x27;ll start to hit the 64-bit limit in about a decade. Storage systems tend to live for several decades, so it would be foolish to create a new one without anticipating the needs that will surely arise within its projected lifetime.&lt;p&gt;So exactly 14 years passed, does someone have 2^64 bytes for a single ZFS filesystem (or anything close to that)? I don&amp;#x27;t really feel like storage capacity (or 1&amp;#x2F;price) doubles every year.</text></item></parent_chain></comment><story><title>ZFS 128 bit storage: Are you high? (2004)</title><url>https://blogs.oracle.com/bonwick/128-bit-storage:-are-you-high</url></story>
<instructions>Your goal is to analyze the following comment and estimate how highly it will be upvoted by the Hacker News community.</instructions><comment><author>bhouston</author><text>I think the largest file systems in the world are Amazon&amp;#x27;s S3, and maybe Glacier.  I guess Google&amp;#x27;s internal system used for YouTube and Gmail probably outrank it but there are no numbers for it.  But I doubt that they are in a single address space on a single file system.&lt;p&gt;So basically we moved away from singular large unified file systems and built swarms of little file systems.</text><parent_chain><item><author>vbezhenar</author><text>&amp;gt; Some customers already have datasets on the order of a petabyte, or 2^50 bytes. Thus the 64-bit capacity limit of 264 bytes is only 14 doublings away. Moore&amp;#x27;s Law
for storage predicts that capacity will continue to double every 9-12 months, which means we&amp;#x27;ll start to hit the 64-bit limit in about a decade. Storage systems tend to live for several decades, so it would be foolish to create a new one without anticipating the needs that will surely arise within its projected lifetime.&lt;p&gt;So exactly 14 years passed, does someone have 2^64 bytes for a single ZFS filesystem (or anything close to that)? I don&amp;#x27;t really feel like storage capacity (or 1&amp;#x2F;price) doubles every year.</text></item></parent_chain></comment><story><title>ZFS 128 bit storage: Are you high? (2004)</title><url>https://blogs.oracle.com/bonwick/128-bit-storage:-are-you-high</url></story>