<instructions>Your goal is to analyze the following comment and estimate how highly it will be upvoted by the Hacker News community.</instructions><comment><author>dahfizz</author><text>&amp;gt; Because the data shows they don&amp;#x27;t matter.&lt;p&gt;Source? Because the CDC says otherwise.&lt;p&gt;&amp;gt; In the first full week of October, vaccinated New Yorkers with a prior Covid-19 case were 19.8 times less likely to catch the virus than their unvaccinated and uninfected peers, whereas people who were unvaccinated but previously infected were 14.7 times less likely, and vaccinated but uninfected New Yorkers were just 4.5 times less likely.&lt;p&gt;In other words, natural immunity alone can be up to 5X more protective than the vaccine alone, according to the CDC.&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.forbes.com&amp;#x2F;sites&amp;#x2F;joewalsh&amp;#x2F;2022&amp;#x2F;01&amp;#x2F;19&amp;#x2F;cdc-prior-covid-infection-offered-more-protection-against-delta-than-vaccines---but-both-together-did-best&amp;#x2F;?sh=140821063d04&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.forbes.com&amp;#x2F;sites&amp;#x2F;joewalsh&amp;#x2F;2022&amp;#x2F;01&amp;#x2F;19&amp;#x2F;cdc-prior-c...&lt;/a&gt;</text><parent_chain><item><author>bonzini</author><text>&amp;gt; why are they so adamant to vaccinate those with prior infection&lt;p&gt;Because the data shows they don&amp;#x27;t matter.&lt;p&gt;This is the same thing as deaths due to covid vs. deaths while positive to covid. Sure some people might have been miscounted as covid deaths but actually died due to cancer&amp;#x2F;car accident&amp;#x2F;whatever. Despite this the excess deaths over the past two years is much higher than the number of covid deaths; thus showing that miscounts must be a small minority which, in any case, is absolutely dwarfed by excess deaths not counted as covid deaths. It might even grow a little as testing improves but it still remains mostly irrelevant.&lt;p&gt;Likewise it may be that some people do not need a vaccination. However, we have a 30&amp;#x2F;70 split in number of covid hospitalizations, with 30 being vaccinated people, in countries where the split in the normal population is 90&amp;#x2F;10. This means that &lt;i&gt;despite&lt;/i&gt; some unvaccinated people having had prior infection the vaccine reduces hospitalizations by 20x. Given this data the most effective strategy is to just vaccinate everyone without what is effectively a pointless distinction.&lt;p&gt;As the number of unvaccinated but protected people will grow (through a combination of more infections, more vaccinations and more deaths), the proportion above will revert to 90&amp;#x2F;10 and unvaccinated people will not be an issue anymore. For now however analyzing the proportion of naturally immune people among the unvaccinated is, again, mostly irrelevant.</text></item><item><author>nu11ptr</author><text>Apologies in advance for getting on my soapbox, but this has been on my mind for a while.&lt;p&gt;The way in which the media has gotten everyone to say &amp;quot;the unvaccinated&amp;quot; is a &amp;#x27;disease&amp;#x27; against basic science (not even getting into the divisive nature of this). I would go as far as saying if you read any paper, study, or other that refers to the &amp;quot;unvaccinated&amp;quot; as a single cohort, you are reading vaccine propaganda, not science, or certainly not good science.&lt;p&gt;This must stop. Prior infection immunity is basic science that we&amp;#x27;ve known for eons, and ignoring it is so blatantly glaring an omission, it should make the most staunch pro-vaccine person pause and say: &amp;quot;why are they so adamant to vaccinate those with prior infection?&amp;quot;. One would expect prior infection to be robust, and multiple studies, including even the CDC&amp;#x27;s most recent shows it to be easily as good if not better and longer lasting than the vaccine. This should not come as a surprise to anyone.&lt;p&gt;If you think any of the above is &amp;quot;anti-vax&amp;quot; then I would suggest the media has won and science is dead. I&amp;#x27;m not suggesting the vaccine doesn&amp;#x27;t work. I&amp;#x27;m not suggesting it doesn&amp;#x27;t provide protection against severe disease and death. I&amp;#x27;m not suggesting anyone go out and intentionally try to get COVID, but a HUGE # of people have already had it and ignoring them is downright unscientific. If you are a rational person who wants to see good science and are unemotional and detached from outcomes, then you will want to see proper study cohorts, and combining prior infection in with the &amp;quot;unvaccinated&amp;quot; cohort, is just bad science. This bad science fuels the anti-vaxx movement even more, and honestly, it is hard blame them.</text></item><item><author>tzs</author><text>Something from the NYT mailing list yesterday:&lt;p&gt;&amp;gt; The Covid vaccines are remarkably effective at preventing serious illness. If you’re vaccinated, your chances of getting severely sick are extremely low. Even among people 65 and older, the combination of the vaccines’ effectiveness and the Omicron variant’s relative mildness means that Covid now appears to present less danger than a normal flu.&lt;p&gt;&amp;gt; For the unvaccinated, however, Covid is worse than any other common virus. It has killed more than 865,000 Americans, the vast majority unvaccinated. In the weeks before vaccines became widely available, Covid was the country’s No. 1 cause of death, above even cancer and heart disease.&lt;p&gt;At this point if an adult in the US is unvaccinated it is (1) almost certainly by choice (there are some people who cannot get it for medical reasons but they make up only a very tiny fraction of the unvaccinated), and (2) it is very unlikely that any evidence or logical arguments will chance their minds.&lt;p&gt;With COVID becoming endemic everyone is going to get antibodies, with the only choice being whether you get your first antibodies by vaccination or by getting COVID.&lt;p&gt;The only question really then is how fast do we want the unvaccinated to do the getting antibodies by getting COVID thing. The faster they get it, the faster we can be as done with COVID as we are ever going to be.&lt;p&gt;I&amp;#x27;d say the answer to that should be determined by the hospital capacity. If a region has sufficient hospital capacity that it would not be overwhelmed by the increase in COVID cases among the unvaccinated go ahead and lift most restrictions.</text></item></parent_chain></comment><story><title>Pfizer board member suggests end to mask, vaccine mandates</title><url>https://ntdca.com/pfizer-board-member-suggests-end-to-mask-vaccine-mandates/</url></story>
<instructions>Your goal is to analyze the following comment and estimate how highly it will be upvoted by the Hacker News community.</instructions><comment><author>nu11ptr</author><text>My point is that it is NOT a pointless distinction, and there is a huge discrepancy between &amp;quot;unvaccinated - prior infection&amp;quot; and &amp;quot;unvaccinated - no infection&amp;quot; cohorts. Countries that track prior infection (there are a few) show this in their data, and if you separate them you will see the &amp;quot;unvaxxed - no infection&amp;quot; get worse and the other much better. If the subject matter were something less politically polarizing I&amp;#x27;m suggesting this would be a split group in everyone&amp;#x27;s data.</text><parent_chain><item><author>bonzini</author><text>&amp;gt; why are they so adamant to vaccinate those with prior infection&lt;p&gt;Because the data shows they don&amp;#x27;t matter.&lt;p&gt;This is the same thing as deaths due to covid vs. deaths while positive to covid. Sure some people might have been miscounted as covid deaths but actually died due to cancer&amp;#x2F;car accident&amp;#x2F;whatever. Despite this the excess deaths over the past two years is much higher than the number of covid deaths; thus showing that miscounts must be a small minority which, in any case, is absolutely dwarfed by excess deaths not counted as covid deaths. It might even grow a little as testing improves but it still remains mostly irrelevant.&lt;p&gt;Likewise it may be that some people do not need a vaccination. However, we have a 30&amp;#x2F;70 split in number of covid hospitalizations, with 30 being vaccinated people, in countries where the split in the normal population is 90&amp;#x2F;10. This means that &lt;i&gt;despite&lt;/i&gt; some unvaccinated people having had prior infection the vaccine reduces hospitalizations by 20x. Given this data the most effective strategy is to just vaccinate everyone without what is effectively a pointless distinction.&lt;p&gt;As the number of unvaccinated but protected people will grow (through a combination of more infections, more vaccinations and more deaths), the proportion above will revert to 90&amp;#x2F;10 and unvaccinated people will not be an issue anymore. For now however analyzing the proportion of naturally immune people among the unvaccinated is, again, mostly irrelevant.</text></item><item><author>nu11ptr</author><text>Apologies in advance for getting on my soapbox, but this has been on my mind for a while.&lt;p&gt;The way in which the media has gotten everyone to say &amp;quot;the unvaccinated&amp;quot; is a &amp;#x27;disease&amp;#x27; against basic science (not even getting into the divisive nature of this). I would go as far as saying if you read any paper, study, or other that refers to the &amp;quot;unvaccinated&amp;quot; as a single cohort, you are reading vaccine propaganda, not science, or certainly not good science.&lt;p&gt;This must stop. Prior infection immunity is basic science that we&amp;#x27;ve known for eons, and ignoring it is so blatantly glaring an omission, it should make the most staunch pro-vaccine person pause and say: &amp;quot;why are they so adamant to vaccinate those with prior infection?&amp;quot;. One would expect prior infection to be robust, and multiple studies, including even the CDC&amp;#x27;s most recent shows it to be easily as good if not better and longer lasting than the vaccine. This should not come as a surprise to anyone.&lt;p&gt;If you think any of the above is &amp;quot;anti-vax&amp;quot; then I would suggest the media has won and science is dead. I&amp;#x27;m not suggesting the vaccine doesn&amp;#x27;t work. I&amp;#x27;m not suggesting it doesn&amp;#x27;t provide protection against severe disease and death. I&amp;#x27;m not suggesting anyone go out and intentionally try to get COVID, but a HUGE # of people have already had it and ignoring them is downright unscientific. If you are a rational person who wants to see good science and are unemotional and detached from outcomes, then you will want to see proper study cohorts, and combining prior infection in with the &amp;quot;unvaccinated&amp;quot; cohort, is just bad science. This bad science fuels the anti-vaxx movement even more, and honestly, it is hard blame them.</text></item><item><author>tzs</author><text>Something from the NYT mailing list yesterday:&lt;p&gt;&amp;gt; The Covid vaccines are remarkably effective at preventing serious illness. If you’re vaccinated, your chances of getting severely sick are extremely low. Even among people 65 and older, the combination of the vaccines’ effectiveness and the Omicron variant’s relative mildness means that Covid now appears to present less danger than a normal flu.&lt;p&gt;&amp;gt; For the unvaccinated, however, Covid is worse than any other common virus. It has killed more than 865,000 Americans, the vast majority unvaccinated. In the weeks before vaccines became widely available, Covid was the country’s No. 1 cause of death, above even cancer and heart disease.&lt;p&gt;At this point if an adult in the US is unvaccinated it is (1) almost certainly by choice (there are some people who cannot get it for medical reasons but they make up only a very tiny fraction of the unvaccinated), and (2) it is very unlikely that any evidence or logical arguments will chance their minds.&lt;p&gt;With COVID becoming endemic everyone is going to get antibodies, with the only choice being whether you get your first antibodies by vaccination or by getting COVID.&lt;p&gt;The only question really then is how fast do we want the unvaccinated to do the getting antibodies by getting COVID thing. The faster they get it, the faster we can be as done with COVID as we are ever going to be.&lt;p&gt;I&amp;#x27;d say the answer to that should be determined by the hospital capacity. If a region has sufficient hospital capacity that it would not be overwhelmed by the increase in COVID cases among the unvaccinated go ahead and lift most restrictions.</text></item></parent_chain></comment><story><title>Pfizer board member suggests end to mask, vaccine mandates</title><url>https://ntdca.com/pfizer-board-member-suggests-end-to-mask-vaccine-mandates/</url></story>