<instructions>Your goal is to analyze the following comment and estimate how highly it will be upvoted by the Hacker News community.</instructions><comment><author>flak48</author><text>The calculators usually account for inflation (and also for a percentage rate of return on the lumpsum  you have saved), you would answer &amp;quot;How much income will you need in retirement?&amp;quot; with today&amp;#x27;s value of a $ (eg. if $80k a year would be enough for this year if you retired today)</text><parent_chain><item><author>ryandrake</author><text>Will $80k a year be enough for any lifestyle? That&amp;#x27;s the question I struggle with. It&amp;#x27;s more than enough in today&amp;#x27;s dollars. But I have no idea what will happen with inflation and costs between now and retirement day. Maybe by the time I retire, $80k&amp;#x2F;yr will be poverty level. Maybe health insurance premiums alone will cost $80k&amp;#x2F;yr. Who knows! What will the value of the dollar be and to what extent will healthcare costs have grown? It makes it impossible to set a target. All those &amp;quot;save for retirement&amp;quot; online tools start with that nonsensical question: &amp;quot;How much income will you need in retirement?&amp;quot; How the F should I know? I can&amp;#x27;t predict the future.&lt;p&gt;EDIT: Yes, SOME tools will account for inflation by asking you what you think inflation might be between now and retirement day. (Who knows?) Most don&amp;#x27;t account for costs that will rise much faster than inflation, like housing and health care.</text></item><item><author>marktangotango</author><text>This is the reality of the situation; until you&amp;#x27;re eligible for (edit) medicare, health is a significant expense. When paired with the &amp;quot;hedonistic treadmill&amp;quot; of spending, early retirement takes a lot more investment than many suspect. Even at a safe withdrawal rate of 4%, $2M is &amp;quot;only&amp;quot; $80k a year. You&amp;#x27;re not driving around in Ferrari&amp;#x27;s and eating caviar on that (parodying a rich lifestyle here). Of course there are levels, and one could live modestly in a LCOL area on that, but that&amp;#x27;s not what most people have in mind. Particularly for a &amp;quot;millionaire&amp;quot;.</text></item><item><author>cfeduke</author><text>The greatest expense for me in retirement is now health insurance so it makes sense for me to instead work for insurance coverage and put my wealth towards an inheritance for my children. I used to naively believe once I paid off my mortgage, had a substantial retirement account and savings - a couple million dollars - I&amp;#x27;d no longer work. It&amp;#x27;s also very difficult to get off of the treadmill of spending a lot of money on products and services - requires a massive life change I haven&amp;#x27;t been ready to perform.&lt;p&gt;It helps that I love to write software; I&amp;#x27;d just continue writing software in retirement. I tried to retire once and I ended up writing software anyway, so might as well as get health insurance coverage.</text></item></parent_chain></comment><story><title>Early Retirement (2006)</title><url>https://philip.greenspun.com/materialism/early-retirement/</url></story>
<instructions>Your goal is to analyze the following comment and estimate how highly it will be upvoted by the Hacker News community.</instructions><comment><author>SavantIdiot</author><text>&amp;gt; &amp;quot;How much income will you need in retirement?&amp;quot; How the F should I know? I can&amp;#x27;t predict the future.&lt;p&gt;Correct. But that doesn&amp;#x27;t mean you *shouldn&amp;#x27;t* plan. That&amp;#x27;s why you rebalance your portfolio every few years, and adjust your budgets, and expectations, and make lifestyle changes. It takes a lifetime to prepare for retirement. And its kinda hard to fuck up by your own hand if you are diligent: save 10-20%&amp;#x2F;yr., cover the basic investment grid, buy and hold. With 30+ years experience and many friends in the same boat, that&amp;#x27;s a winner.&lt;p&gt;Also, retiring on $100k today would require $148k&amp;#x2F;yr in 10 years with 4% inflation, so you&amp;#x27;re right, that number will at least go up via inflation.&lt;p&gt;That&amp;#x27;s why it matters who you vote for. Medicare&amp;#x2F;Medicaid will be your primary healthcare in your 60&amp;#x27;s, but we absolutely need the ACA&amp;#x2F;single-payer, not just for early retirees, but to prevent insurance companies from forever inflating premiums and bankrupting us.</text><parent_chain><item><author>ryandrake</author><text>Will $80k a year be enough for any lifestyle? That&amp;#x27;s the question I struggle with. It&amp;#x27;s more than enough in today&amp;#x27;s dollars. But I have no idea what will happen with inflation and costs between now and retirement day. Maybe by the time I retire, $80k&amp;#x2F;yr will be poverty level. Maybe health insurance premiums alone will cost $80k&amp;#x2F;yr. Who knows! What will the value of the dollar be and to what extent will healthcare costs have grown? It makes it impossible to set a target. All those &amp;quot;save for retirement&amp;quot; online tools start with that nonsensical question: &amp;quot;How much income will you need in retirement?&amp;quot; How the F should I know? I can&amp;#x27;t predict the future.&lt;p&gt;EDIT: Yes, SOME tools will account for inflation by asking you what you think inflation might be between now and retirement day. (Who knows?) Most don&amp;#x27;t account for costs that will rise much faster than inflation, like housing and health care.</text></item><item><author>marktangotango</author><text>This is the reality of the situation; until you&amp;#x27;re eligible for (edit) medicare, health is a significant expense. When paired with the &amp;quot;hedonistic treadmill&amp;quot; of spending, early retirement takes a lot more investment than many suspect. Even at a safe withdrawal rate of 4%, $2M is &amp;quot;only&amp;quot; $80k a year. You&amp;#x27;re not driving around in Ferrari&amp;#x27;s and eating caviar on that (parodying a rich lifestyle here). Of course there are levels, and one could live modestly in a LCOL area on that, but that&amp;#x27;s not what most people have in mind. Particularly for a &amp;quot;millionaire&amp;quot;.</text></item><item><author>cfeduke</author><text>The greatest expense for me in retirement is now health insurance so it makes sense for me to instead work for insurance coverage and put my wealth towards an inheritance for my children. I used to naively believe once I paid off my mortgage, had a substantial retirement account and savings - a couple million dollars - I&amp;#x27;d no longer work. It&amp;#x27;s also very difficult to get off of the treadmill of spending a lot of money on products and services - requires a massive life change I haven&amp;#x27;t been ready to perform.&lt;p&gt;It helps that I love to write software; I&amp;#x27;d just continue writing software in retirement. I tried to retire once and I ended up writing software anyway, so might as well as get health insurance coverage.</text></item></parent_chain></comment><story><title>Early Retirement (2006)</title><url>https://philip.greenspun.com/materialism/early-retirement/</url></story>