<instructions>Your goal is to analyze the following comment and estimate how highly it will be upvoted by the Hacker News community.</instructions><comment><author>mikeryan</author><text>Interesting hypothetical.&lt;p&gt;Lets take a recent blockbuster. The first Twilight movie made $392,616,625 in the box office, $194,881,773 in DVD sales for a total of $587,498,398 (almost 600M - pretty good rake)&lt;p&gt;In your $5 they&apos;d have to sell 117,499,679 of those $5 streams in order to make that equivalent revenue (so roughly one in every 60 people in the world need to buy a stream).&lt;p&gt;For more fun take the last Twilight Movie (Eclipse) which was a bigger draw ($826,423,724 total revenue). Then you&apos;d have to sell 165M streams to get to those numbers.&lt;p&gt;Considering the $5 stream scenario could be shared across a family - I honestly am not sure your assumption that a studio could make &lt;i&gt;more&lt;/i&gt; money is correct.  The real X-Factor here is the cut the various distribution chains take.&lt;p&gt;I&apos;m not sure your price point is right, but would you perhaps pay $20 for the same stream?&lt;p&gt;EDIT: Also I don&apos;t think the 4-weeks after theatrical release is going to work I don&apos;t think theaters are going to show your movie if you&apos;re going to kneecap them 4 weeks out.&lt;p&gt;[0]  &lt;a href=&quot;http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Twilight_Saga_(film_series)#Box_office_performance&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Twilight_Saga_(film_series)...&lt;/a&gt;</text><parent_chain><item><author>nextparadigms</author><text>Imagine how much money they could make if they released a 1080p HD version online, globally, 4 weeks at most after the launch in cinemas, and for a price of $5.&lt;p&gt;That may or may not kill the cinemas in the long term, depending on how hard they fight to become more competitive and unique compared to watching the movie at home, but it would definitely not hurt the studios and movie makers. If anything, they stand to make a lot more money on average for every released movie.</text></item><item><author>bobsy</author><text>A thing to note is that it was a CAM recording of the film that was leaked.&lt;p&gt;I have only ever watched one cam recording of a movie before. I think it was &apos;The Illusionist.&apos; I was at a friends house, he slapped it on. The color saturation was wrong, the sound was like mono and the camera appeared slightly off so the very top or bottom of the screen was cut off. It wasn&apos;t completely unwatchable but it spoiled the movie. Its like watching a film through a neighbours window.. crap.&lt;p&gt;Piracy has far more effect on DVD sales. This is for 4 reasons. The price of DVD&apos;s, the inconvenience of going out and getting the DVD, the bullshit adverts and unskipable junk before the film and the menu which takes 20 seconds to display before you can press PLAY.&lt;p&gt;If there was a DVD quality recording of the avengers I think it would have easily had 5x more downloads, probably 10x. However, realistically the cinema is an experience. If you enjoy the cinema you are going to watch a film like this at the cinema - then maybe download it. I am firmly of the opinion that if you make a blockbuster film, whether it leaks or not it will do well.</text></item></parent_chain></comment><story><title>The Avengers: Why Pirates Failed To Prevent A Box Office Record</title><url>http://torrentfreak.com/the-avengers-why-pirates-failed-to-prevent-a-box-office-record-120508/</url></story>
<instructions>Your goal is to analyze the following comment and estimate how highly it will be upvoted by the Hacker News community.</instructions><comment><author>andrewljohnson</author><text>When I imagine that much money, I imagine it is much less than what they make now. That&apos;s the nature of a disrupted industry.</text><parent_chain><item><author>nextparadigms</author><text>Imagine how much money they could make if they released a 1080p HD version online, globally, 4 weeks at most after the launch in cinemas, and for a price of $5.&lt;p&gt;That may or may not kill the cinemas in the long term, depending on how hard they fight to become more competitive and unique compared to watching the movie at home, but it would definitely not hurt the studios and movie makers. If anything, they stand to make a lot more money on average for every released movie.</text></item><item><author>bobsy</author><text>A thing to note is that it was a CAM recording of the film that was leaked.&lt;p&gt;I have only ever watched one cam recording of a movie before. I think it was &apos;The Illusionist.&apos; I was at a friends house, he slapped it on. The color saturation was wrong, the sound was like mono and the camera appeared slightly off so the very top or bottom of the screen was cut off. It wasn&apos;t completely unwatchable but it spoiled the movie. Its like watching a film through a neighbours window.. crap.&lt;p&gt;Piracy has far more effect on DVD sales. This is for 4 reasons. The price of DVD&apos;s, the inconvenience of going out and getting the DVD, the bullshit adverts and unskipable junk before the film and the menu which takes 20 seconds to display before you can press PLAY.&lt;p&gt;If there was a DVD quality recording of the avengers I think it would have easily had 5x more downloads, probably 10x. However, realistically the cinema is an experience. If you enjoy the cinema you are going to watch a film like this at the cinema - then maybe download it. I am firmly of the opinion that if you make a blockbuster film, whether it leaks or not it will do well.</text></item></parent_chain></comment><story><title>The Avengers: Why Pirates Failed To Prevent A Box Office Record</title><url>http://torrentfreak.com/the-avengers-why-pirates-failed-to-prevent-a-box-office-record-120508/</url></story>