<instructions>Your goal is to analyze the following comment and estimate how highly it will be upvoted by the Hacker News community.</instructions><comment><author>zaphar</author><text>I actually think in a way one of Facebooks core proposition is &lt;i&gt;being&lt;/i&gt; the internet for most people which is not that far off from AOL. The similarity here is that no one knows what is going to render FB obsolete right now. Just like no one knew what was going to do the same for AOL. AOL lost in part I believe because they were not really able to transition from Dialup &amp;quot;internet&amp;quot; Provider to Content Aggregator when broadband became a thing. The value add just wasn&amp;#x27;t there.</text><parent_chain><item><author>ethbr0</author><text>I&amp;#x27;d hesitate to generalize AOL&amp;#x27;s fall into Facebook&amp;#x27;s future.&lt;p&gt;AOL&amp;#x27;s core proposition was being better than the Internet (more curated, coherent, and faster). When the web and internet exploded in size and scale, AOL&amp;#x27;s value evaporated. The dumb mergers and other mistakes were window dressing on this landscape transformation.&lt;p&gt;And for years (decades? still?) afterwards, people used AOL Instant Messager (AIM), because it was the most network&amp;#x2F;platform component of AOL.&lt;p&gt;So how would that happen to Facebook, and what would it look like?&lt;p&gt;Users would need an order of magnitude superior alternative, and most critically, users would need to move en mass. Facebook has rightly identified onboarding younger cohorts as key to their survival, but I don&amp;#x27;t see any realistic way Facebook dies a natural death in under 40 years.</text></item><item><author>mkr-hn</author><text>It&amp;#x27;s been so long since a company reached Facebook&amp;#x27;s heights and fell that a whole generation doesn&amp;#x27;t know what it looks like. AOL was the Facebook of its time: a joke to system admins, a default ban on small game servers and IRC channels. Meanwhile, most people had no idea anyone had a problem with AOL. Like with Facebook, there were people reporting on its follies like Observers.net[0], but it mostly went unremarked on or unnoticed by most people. Until it changed. AOL is &lt;i&gt;around&lt;/i&gt;, as Facebook likely will be, but it&amp;#x27;ll see a similar fall, and no one will see it coming.&lt;p&gt;[0] &lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;web.archive.org&amp;#x2F;web&amp;#x2F;20110124001004&amp;#x2F;http:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.nytimes.com&amp;#x2F;1999&amp;#x2F;04&amp;#x2F;14&amp;#x2F;us&amp;#x2F;america-online-is-facing-challenge-over-free-labor.html&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;web.archive.org&amp;#x2F;web&amp;#x2F;20110124001004&amp;#x2F;http:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.nytime...&lt;/a&gt;&lt;p&gt;Note how similar this is to the reports on what Facebook moderators deal with.</text></item><item><author>JumpCrisscross</author><text>&amp;gt; &lt;i&gt;most of them don’t give a shit about the reputation of FB&lt;/i&gt;&lt;p&gt;This is close to a straw man argument. Nobody claims users will abandon Facebook.&lt;p&gt;The article posits, instead, strengthening headwinds. Headwinds in hiring (there is already a double-digit premium Facebook must pay for talent). From recurring whistleblowing, and its impact on morale and productivity. Headwinds in projects and partnerships, like Libre&amp;#x2F;Diem being dead on arrival because Facebook brought it to the table. Senior leadership knowing they will, at least once in their career, be hauled in front of Congress for a nationally-televised grilling because their employer&amp;#x27;s unpopularity [1] makes it a popular punching bag. Headwinds in M&amp;amp;A.&lt;p&gt;People didn&amp;#x27;t stop using oil after the Standard Oil break-up. Nor Windows after its antitrust brush or cigarettes after the tobacco master settlement. The power of those companies was simply sharply reduced.&lt;p&gt;[1] &lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.theverge.com&amp;#x2F;2021&amp;#x2F;10&amp;#x2F;6&amp;#x2F;22702798&amp;#x2F;verge-tech-survey-2021-trust-privacy-security-facebook-amazon-google-apple-pandemic&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.theverge.com&amp;#x2F;2021&amp;#x2F;10&amp;#x2F;6&amp;#x2F;22702798&amp;#x2F;verge-tech-surve...&lt;/a&gt;</text></item><item><author>shoto_io</author><text>No. That’s what people like us and all the main stream media hope for.&lt;p&gt;But: most people I know don’t have the slightest clue that Insta and WhatsApp belong to the FB group.&lt;p&gt;And even worse: most of them don’t give a shit about the reputation of FB. They just want to send messages and share pictures through those apps.</text></item></parent_chain></comment><story><title>Facebook is nearing a reputational point of no return</title><url>https://www.economist.com/leaders/2021/10/09/facebook-is-nearing-a-reputational-point-of-no-return</url></story>
<instructions>Your goal is to analyze the following comment and estimate how highly it will be upvoted by the Hacker News community.</instructions><comment><author>JohnBooty</author><text>&lt;p&gt;&lt;pre&gt;&lt;code&gt;    Users would need an order of magnitude superior 
    alternative, and most critically, users would 
    need to move en mass.
&lt;/code&gt;&lt;/pre&gt;
Yeah. Network effect. Arguably nothing on Earth has ever had such a powerful network effect as Facebook.&lt;p&gt;I dislike FB for all of the usual reasons, plus a few of my own.&lt;p&gt;But I still have an FB account. I don&amp;#x27;t check it very often, and I&amp;#x27;ve got notifications turned off. But ditching my FB account entirely means I&amp;#x27;d lose access to dozens of people I wouldn&amp;#x27;t have a great way of contacting otherwise.&lt;p&gt;History tells us that something eventually will replace it. But, it&amp;#x27;s hard to imagine.</text><parent_chain><item><author>ethbr0</author><text>I&amp;#x27;d hesitate to generalize AOL&amp;#x27;s fall into Facebook&amp;#x27;s future.&lt;p&gt;AOL&amp;#x27;s core proposition was being better than the Internet (more curated, coherent, and faster). When the web and internet exploded in size and scale, AOL&amp;#x27;s value evaporated. The dumb mergers and other mistakes were window dressing on this landscape transformation.&lt;p&gt;And for years (decades? still?) afterwards, people used AOL Instant Messager (AIM), because it was the most network&amp;#x2F;platform component of AOL.&lt;p&gt;So how would that happen to Facebook, and what would it look like?&lt;p&gt;Users would need an order of magnitude superior alternative, and most critically, users would need to move en mass. Facebook has rightly identified onboarding younger cohorts as key to their survival, but I don&amp;#x27;t see any realistic way Facebook dies a natural death in under 40 years.</text></item><item><author>mkr-hn</author><text>It&amp;#x27;s been so long since a company reached Facebook&amp;#x27;s heights and fell that a whole generation doesn&amp;#x27;t know what it looks like. AOL was the Facebook of its time: a joke to system admins, a default ban on small game servers and IRC channels. Meanwhile, most people had no idea anyone had a problem with AOL. Like with Facebook, there were people reporting on its follies like Observers.net[0], but it mostly went unremarked on or unnoticed by most people. Until it changed. AOL is &lt;i&gt;around&lt;/i&gt;, as Facebook likely will be, but it&amp;#x27;ll see a similar fall, and no one will see it coming.&lt;p&gt;[0] &lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;web.archive.org&amp;#x2F;web&amp;#x2F;20110124001004&amp;#x2F;http:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.nytimes.com&amp;#x2F;1999&amp;#x2F;04&amp;#x2F;14&amp;#x2F;us&amp;#x2F;america-online-is-facing-challenge-over-free-labor.html&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;web.archive.org&amp;#x2F;web&amp;#x2F;20110124001004&amp;#x2F;http:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.nytime...&lt;/a&gt;&lt;p&gt;Note how similar this is to the reports on what Facebook moderators deal with.</text></item><item><author>JumpCrisscross</author><text>&amp;gt; &lt;i&gt;most of them don’t give a shit about the reputation of FB&lt;/i&gt;&lt;p&gt;This is close to a straw man argument. Nobody claims users will abandon Facebook.&lt;p&gt;The article posits, instead, strengthening headwinds. Headwinds in hiring (there is already a double-digit premium Facebook must pay for talent). From recurring whistleblowing, and its impact on morale and productivity. Headwinds in projects and partnerships, like Libre&amp;#x2F;Diem being dead on arrival because Facebook brought it to the table. Senior leadership knowing they will, at least once in their career, be hauled in front of Congress for a nationally-televised grilling because their employer&amp;#x27;s unpopularity [1] makes it a popular punching bag. Headwinds in M&amp;amp;A.&lt;p&gt;People didn&amp;#x27;t stop using oil after the Standard Oil break-up. Nor Windows after its antitrust brush or cigarettes after the tobacco master settlement. The power of those companies was simply sharply reduced.&lt;p&gt;[1] &lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.theverge.com&amp;#x2F;2021&amp;#x2F;10&amp;#x2F;6&amp;#x2F;22702798&amp;#x2F;verge-tech-survey-2021-trust-privacy-security-facebook-amazon-google-apple-pandemic&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.theverge.com&amp;#x2F;2021&amp;#x2F;10&amp;#x2F;6&amp;#x2F;22702798&amp;#x2F;verge-tech-surve...&lt;/a&gt;</text></item><item><author>shoto_io</author><text>No. That’s what people like us and all the main stream media hope for.&lt;p&gt;But: most people I know don’t have the slightest clue that Insta and WhatsApp belong to the FB group.&lt;p&gt;And even worse: most of them don’t give a shit about the reputation of FB. They just want to send messages and share pictures through those apps.</text></item></parent_chain></comment><story><title>Facebook is nearing a reputational point of no return</title><url>https://www.economist.com/leaders/2021/10/09/facebook-is-nearing-a-reputational-point-of-no-return</url></story>