<instructions>Your goal is to analyze the following comment and estimate how highly it will be upvoted by the Hacker News community.</instructions><comment><author>BlargMcLarg</author><text>&amp;gt;Historically, while immigration does have some downsides especially if your system has a lot of entitlements, the pros outweigh the cons.&lt;p&gt;You have to be far, far more specific. Both real estate and the job markets are already suffocating the average young adult in most developed countries. Your solution proposes to put more pressure on both of those markets, for the sake of another population. Young adults aren&amp;#x27;t going to see the benefits of this for a long time. Younger generations likely won&amp;#x27;t for a good while, either.&lt;p&gt;Additionally, by pumping in more people from outside, you&amp;#x27;re specifically pressuring skilled workers who put more thought to popping out babies than just doing the deed. There will be some semblance of resentment potential parents feel they can&amp;#x27;t reasonably have kids in a country already squeezing them things out at the current population size, despite wanting to. You know, the exact same thing happening in most countries today.&lt;p&gt;Even if Japan doesn&amp;#x27;t have similar problems with RE, the population isn&amp;#x27;t exactly waiting for immigrants willing to accept poor work conditions and pressure other candidates to do the same.&lt;p&gt;&amp;gt;Imo it’s a big reason why the US eventually surpassed Europe&lt;p&gt;You just going to conveniently skip multiple events leaving Europe in shambles and setting the US up to be in prime position to take over the global economy?</text><parent_chain><item><author>chaostheory</author><text>Immigration is probably the only thing right now that mitigates the problem of consecutive declining birthrates. AI and robotics aren’t there yet. Historically, while immigration does have some downsides especially if your system has a lot of entitlements, the pros outweigh the cons. Imo it’s a big reason why the US eventually surpassed Europe, and a large reason for slowing down our decline.</text></item><item><author>tored</author><text>Immigration is not one-stop solution to fix GDP because integration is huge cost that is rarely taken into account. And of course it doesn&amp;#x27;t at all address the real problem, that men and women no longer creates families.&lt;p&gt;This is typical of todays debate in the West, not solve the real issue, instead offer some sort of band aid solution and completely ignore the real issue.&lt;p&gt;Japanese is a population of about 126 million living on size of Norway, a country of 5.4 million inhabitants.</text></item><item><author>cstross</author><text>Note that Japan is in a savage demographic crunch, with a TFR well below replacement and an ageing population, which means the ratio of workers to dependents (the elderly) is dropping. Which in turn reduces average productivity and GDP. Actual population decline is deflationary and Japan&amp;#x27;s been in that situation since the start of the 1990s.&lt;p&gt;This isn&amp;#x27;t a defense of Abenomics, but a reminder that Japan has structural problems that can&amp;#x27;t be easily fixed (unless there&amp;#x27;s a huge sea-change in public opinion and they start actively trying to attract younger immigrants -- which would be a first-time-ever thing).</text></item><item><author>danuker</author><text>The first thing that pops into my mind is &amp;quot;Abenomics&amp;quot;:&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&amp;#x2F;wiki&amp;#x2F;Abenomics&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&amp;#x2F;wiki&amp;#x2F;Abenomics&lt;/a&gt;&lt;p&gt;&amp;gt; IMF affirmed that Japan&amp;#x27;s nominal GDP contracted by $1.8 trillion during 2012–2015 while real GDP contracted at an annual rate of 6.8 percent[58] in the second quarter of 2014, after the Consumption Tax hike came into effect in April. This fall is the worst since the devastating earthquake and tsunami disaster[59][60] hit Japan in the first quarter of 2011 when the GDP shrank by an annualised 6.9 percent.&lt;p&gt;So, his economic policy might have been as bad as an earthquake + tsunami.&lt;p&gt;That said, he was not the only one supporting this policy, and nobody deserves to die for a mistake.</text></item></parent_chain></comment><story><title>Former PM Abe Shinzo dies after being shot</title><url>https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20220708_49/</url></story>
<instructions>Your goal is to analyze the following comment and estimate how highly it will be upvoted by the Hacker News community.</instructions><comment><author>tored</author><text>The thing is if the idea is that women should equally participate in the labour market then child births will decline.&lt;p&gt;Thus if immigrants already has or adopts the Japanese way of living then child births will still be low.&lt;p&gt;Or if immigrants have high childbirths then women will not equally participate in the labour market, therefore that family only has one or fewer incomes in a high tax society that is designed for two persons per family taxable income, thus that family will probably be a net loss for tax payers.&lt;p&gt;&amp;gt; Imo it’s a big reason the US eventually surpassed Europe&lt;p&gt;When was that?&lt;p&gt;If I&amp;#x27;m reading the stats correctly for Japan&lt;p&gt;1960 94 million, ~50% labour participation rate for women, ~4 million child births, ~1 million abortions&lt;p&gt;Today 126 million, ~80% labour participation rate for women, ~800 000 child births, ~150 000 abortions.</text><parent_chain><item><author>chaostheory</author><text>Immigration is probably the only thing right now that mitigates the problem of consecutive declining birthrates. AI and robotics aren’t there yet. Historically, while immigration does have some downsides especially if your system has a lot of entitlements, the pros outweigh the cons. Imo it’s a big reason why the US eventually surpassed Europe, and a large reason for slowing down our decline.</text></item><item><author>tored</author><text>Immigration is not one-stop solution to fix GDP because integration is huge cost that is rarely taken into account. And of course it doesn&amp;#x27;t at all address the real problem, that men and women no longer creates families.&lt;p&gt;This is typical of todays debate in the West, not solve the real issue, instead offer some sort of band aid solution and completely ignore the real issue.&lt;p&gt;Japanese is a population of about 126 million living on size of Norway, a country of 5.4 million inhabitants.</text></item><item><author>cstross</author><text>Note that Japan is in a savage demographic crunch, with a TFR well below replacement and an ageing population, which means the ratio of workers to dependents (the elderly) is dropping. Which in turn reduces average productivity and GDP. Actual population decline is deflationary and Japan&amp;#x27;s been in that situation since the start of the 1990s.&lt;p&gt;This isn&amp;#x27;t a defense of Abenomics, but a reminder that Japan has structural problems that can&amp;#x27;t be easily fixed (unless there&amp;#x27;s a huge sea-change in public opinion and they start actively trying to attract younger immigrants -- which would be a first-time-ever thing).</text></item><item><author>danuker</author><text>The first thing that pops into my mind is &amp;quot;Abenomics&amp;quot;:&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&amp;#x2F;wiki&amp;#x2F;Abenomics&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&amp;#x2F;wiki&amp;#x2F;Abenomics&lt;/a&gt;&lt;p&gt;&amp;gt; IMF affirmed that Japan&amp;#x27;s nominal GDP contracted by $1.8 trillion during 2012–2015 while real GDP contracted at an annual rate of 6.8 percent[58] in the second quarter of 2014, after the Consumption Tax hike came into effect in April. This fall is the worst since the devastating earthquake and tsunami disaster[59][60] hit Japan in the first quarter of 2011 when the GDP shrank by an annualised 6.9 percent.&lt;p&gt;So, his economic policy might have been as bad as an earthquake + tsunami.&lt;p&gt;That said, he was not the only one supporting this policy, and nobody deserves to die for a mistake.</text></item></parent_chain></comment><story><title>Former PM Abe Shinzo dies after being shot</title><url>https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20220708_49/</url></story>