<instructions>Your goal is to analyze the following comment and estimate how highly it will be upvoted by the Hacker News community.</instructions><comment><author>throwawayfire</author><text>&amp;gt; The disruption will have introduced hypotheticals&lt;p&gt;In general, temporary disruption has some long-term positive economic effects (which is directly why &amp;#x27;disruption&amp;#x27; is valued in Silicon Valley).&lt;p&gt;For example, during London Tube Strikes, commuters find different and more efficient routes and 5% ended up permanently changing their route on public transport: &lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.independent.co.uk&amp;#x2F;news&amp;#x2F;business&amp;#x2F;news&amp;#x2F;tube-strike-good-economy-study-finds-10499926.html&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.independent.co.uk&amp;#x2F;news&amp;#x2F;business&amp;#x2F;news&amp;#x2F;tube-strike...&lt;/a&gt;</text><parent_chain><item><author>chipsambos</author><text>Agree it&amp;#x27;s incalculable, I don&amp;#x27;t mean that in the &amp;quot;it&amp;#x27;s too big of a number&amp;quot; sort of way but in the &amp;quot;we can&amp;#x27;t possibly know&amp;quot; kind of way:&lt;p&gt;1) The scale and depth of the disruption makes it impractical to figure in any kind of accurate way and&lt;p&gt;2) The disruption will have introduced hypotheticals that nay spiral out themselves (butterfly effect style) e.g. some retailer may have lost a customer who went elsewhere, some supplier may have lost a retailer who went elsewhere, etc</text></item><item><author>ufmace</author><text>Probably the actual cost will require an army of accountants and lawyers at a dozen major logistics corporations arguing with each other for months to even try to compute. I doubt us regular uninvolved people will ever get a &amp;quot;real&amp;quot; number.&lt;p&gt;How do you even try to calculate and reveal the cost associated with say a manufacturer in the middle of a supply chain deciding to source their parts from a different vendor for this run because their usual source was delayed due to the Suez blockage and they didn&amp;#x27;t want to leave their factory idle?</text></item><item><author>JosephRedfern</author><text>Lots of articles quote a $XXX billion dollars per day figure, but those numbers are normally for &amp;quot;worth of goods delayed&amp;quot; which, while interesting, doesn&amp;#x27;t tell the story to me.&lt;p&gt;Are there any estimates as to the actual cost of this &amp;quot;mishap&amp;quot;, due to e.g. spoilage, financial&amp;#x2F;contractual repercussions of late deliveries, personnel&amp;#x2F;fuel costs?</text></item></parent_chain></comment><story><title>Suez Canal says traffic in channel resumes after stranded ship refloated</title><url>https://www.reuters.com/article/us-egypt-suezcanal-ship-floated/suez-canal-says-traffic-in-channel-resumes-after-stranded-ship-refloated-idUSKBN2BL1S9</url></story>
<instructions>Your goal is to analyze the following comment and estimate how highly it will be upvoted by the Hacker News community.</instructions><comment><author>lisper</author><text>You can get a rough idea by thinking of this as if it were a natural disaster, and from that perspective I think the toll is probably not too bad.  No casualties, very little property damage, and a week is not really all that long.&lt;p&gt;However... that is no excuse to shrug this off.  We were very, very lucky that it was only a week.  The ship could easily have broken in two, which would have been a catastrophe of the first order and likely shut the canal down for a year.  The world dodged a major bullet here.</text><parent_chain><item><author>chipsambos</author><text>Agree it&amp;#x27;s incalculable, I don&amp;#x27;t mean that in the &amp;quot;it&amp;#x27;s too big of a number&amp;quot; sort of way but in the &amp;quot;we can&amp;#x27;t possibly know&amp;quot; kind of way:&lt;p&gt;1) The scale and depth of the disruption makes it impractical to figure in any kind of accurate way and&lt;p&gt;2) The disruption will have introduced hypotheticals that nay spiral out themselves (butterfly effect style) e.g. some retailer may have lost a customer who went elsewhere, some supplier may have lost a retailer who went elsewhere, etc</text></item><item><author>ufmace</author><text>Probably the actual cost will require an army of accountants and lawyers at a dozen major logistics corporations arguing with each other for months to even try to compute. I doubt us regular uninvolved people will ever get a &amp;quot;real&amp;quot; number.&lt;p&gt;How do you even try to calculate and reveal the cost associated with say a manufacturer in the middle of a supply chain deciding to source their parts from a different vendor for this run because their usual source was delayed due to the Suez blockage and they didn&amp;#x27;t want to leave their factory idle?</text></item><item><author>JosephRedfern</author><text>Lots of articles quote a $XXX billion dollars per day figure, but those numbers are normally for &amp;quot;worth of goods delayed&amp;quot; which, while interesting, doesn&amp;#x27;t tell the story to me.&lt;p&gt;Are there any estimates as to the actual cost of this &amp;quot;mishap&amp;quot;, due to e.g. spoilage, financial&amp;#x2F;contractual repercussions of late deliveries, personnel&amp;#x2F;fuel costs?</text></item></parent_chain></comment><story><title>Suez Canal says traffic in channel resumes after stranded ship refloated</title><url>https://www.reuters.com/article/us-egypt-suezcanal-ship-floated/suez-canal-says-traffic-in-channel-resumes-after-stranded-ship-refloated-idUSKBN2BL1S9</url></story>