<instructions>Your goal is to analyze the following comment and estimate how highly it will be upvoted by the Hacker News community.</instructions><comment><author>thematrixturtle</author><text>China&amp;#x27;s population will start shrinking around 2025, and there&amp;#x27;s a real estate bubble that&amp;#x27;s clearly starting to deflate right now.&lt;p&gt;Obviously China is still a poor country and there&amp;#x27;s a lot of housing stock being upgraded, so it&amp;#x27;s not going to be a complete collapse, but I do expect construction to slow down both in the short and long term.</text><parent_chain><item><author>ianai</author><text>Who&amp;#x27;s expecting a decline in construction demand in China? I think I&amp;#x27;ve heard this a few places, granted, but have they really built up enough for their whole population (that would want it)?</text></item><item><author>jbay808</author><text>I&amp;#x27;m not an economist, but I&amp;#x27;m going to go out on a limb here: my expectation is that between now and 2025, a decline in construction demand in China will have a more significant impact on global copper consumption than an increase due to EV demand. I think the copper supplies will be okay.</text></item><item><author>amluto</author><text>Some cursory searching suggests that between 40 and 50% of copper is used in building construction.  I don’t know the further breakdown, but:&lt;p&gt;Copper is widely used for flashing. For this application, galvanized steel, aluminum, and stainless steel can substitute. All are less expensive.&lt;p&gt;Copper is used for pipes. They are &lt;i&gt;much&lt;/i&gt; more expensive than plastics. Arguably, depending on the particular application, one or more plastic options are as good or better.  (Copper is unharmed by moderate chlorine concentrations and sunlight.  It’s mechanically strong. It’s inert to water at appropriate pH.  It is quite reactive to water at the wrong pH.  Boiler condensate will quickly destroy it.)&lt;p&gt;Copper is used for heavy-gauge electrical wire. For many of these applications, aluminum is much less expensive and arguable superior (it’s lighter and more flexible).&lt;p&gt;Copper is used for 12 and 14 gauge branch circuits. Aluminum branch circuits are currently strongly discouraged.&lt;p&gt;In any event, a lot of copper is consumed for applications that don’t need it. If prices go up, the industry can adapt.</text></item></parent_chain></comment><story><title>A looming copper crunch and why recycling can’t fix it</title><url>https://www.mining.com/the-looming-copper-crunch-and-why-recycling-cant-fix-it/</url></story>
<instructions>Your goal is to analyze the following comment and estimate how highly it will be upvoted by the Hacker News community.</instructions><comment><author>atwood22</author><text>The Chinese government is cracking down on debt-fueled property developers.</text><parent_chain><item><author>ianai</author><text>Who&amp;#x27;s expecting a decline in construction demand in China? I think I&amp;#x27;ve heard this a few places, granted, but have they really built up enough for their whole population (that would want it)?</text></item><item><author>jbay808</author><text>I&amp;#x27;m not an economist, but I&amp;#x27;m going to go out on a limb here: my expectation is that between now and 2025, a decline in construction demand in China will have a more significant impact on global copper consumption than an increase due to EV demand. I think the copper supplies will be okay.</text></item><item><author>amluto</author><text>Some cursory searching suggests that between 40 and 50% of copper is used in building construction.  I don’t know the further breakdown, but:&lt;p&gt;Copper is widely used for flashing. For this application, galvanized steel, aluminum, and stainless steel can substitute. All are less expensive.&lt;p&gt;Copper is used for pipes. They are &lt;i&gt;much&lt;/i&gt; more expensive than plastics. Arguably, depending on the particular application, one or more plastic options are as good or better.  (Copper is unharmed by moderate chlorine concentrations and sunlight.  It’s mechanically strong. It’s inert to water at appropriate pH.  It is quite reactive to water at the wrong pH.  Boiler condensate will quickly destroy it.)&lt;p&gt;Copper is used for heavy-gauge electrical wire. For many of these applications, aluminum is much less expensive and arguable superior (it’s lighter and more flexible).&lt;p&gt;Copper is used for 12 and 14 gauge branch circuits. Aluminum branch circuits are currently strongly discouraged.&lt;p&gt;In any event, a lot of copper is consumed for applications that don’t need it. If prices go up, the industry can adapt.</text></item></parent_chain></comment><story><title>A looming copper crunch and why recycling can’t fix it</title><url>https://www.mining.com/the-looming-copper-crunch-and-why-recycling-cant-fix-it/</url></story>