<instructions>Your goal is to analyze the following comment and estimate how highly it will be upvoted by the Hacker News community.</instructions><comment><author>SilverBirch</author><text>What&amp;#x27;s really scary about the SVB situation is the dynamic that there&amp;#x27;s no cost to causing a bank run, so now you&amp;#x27;ve got all these VC guys who are disingenuously claiming that every bank in America is now at risk because of SVB. We all know what they&amp;#x27;re doing - they&amp;#x27;re trying to create panic so that the government has to step in, but it&amp;#x27;s a massively dangerous game to be playing. If other regional banks do start failing it&amp;#x27;s going to be in no small part due to these people preaching doomsday scenarios. Will they pay a price for their behaviour. Of course not.</text><parent_chain></parent_chain></comment><story><title>First Republic, other regional bank stocks sink after failure of SVB</title><url>https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/10/first-republic-leads-regional-bank-rout-as-silicon-valley-bank-crisis-raises-fears-about-bond-losses.html</url></story>
<instructions>Your goal is to analyze the following comment and estimate how highly it will be upvoted by the Hacker News community.</instructions><comment><author>howmayiannoyyou</author><text>From @commbankerguy | &lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;twitter.com&amp;#x2F;commbankerguy&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;twitter.com&amp;#x2F;commbankerguy&lt;/a&gt; | on Twitter on evaluating your bank, where more than one factor should be in play to probably be of concern:&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;twitter.com&amp;#x2F;commbankerguy&amp;#x2F;status&amp;#x2F;1634637082659364866&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;twitter.com&amp;#x2F;commbankerguy&amp;#x2F;status&amp;#x2F;1634637082659364866&lt;/a&gt;&lt;p&gt;1. Red flag if cash as % of assets or deposits is below 3%. Meaning can they handle a withdrawal of up to 3% or is cash tied up in bonds.&lt;p&gt;2. Red flag if tangible capital is under 4% after looking at bond portfolio as % of tangible capital (this one wasn&amp;#x27;t totally clear, but I think get the idea).&lt;p&gt;3. Red flag if over 20% of liabilities are brokered deposits and&amp;#x2F;or funds borrowed from FHLB. If the bank is not well capitalized those funds become restricted&amp;#x2F;unavailable.&lt;p&gt;Also:&lt;p&gt;High concentration of consumer deposits is less likely to face destabilizing run.&lt;p&gt;For example @commbankerguy says:&lt;p&gt;&amp;quot;If 50% in brokered&amp;#x2F;FHLB and capital level of 5%, I would recommend you move your money if over $250k.&amp;quot; &lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;twitter.com&amp;#x2F;commbankerguy&amp;#x2F;status&amp;#x2F;1634764850126520320?s=20&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;twitter.com&amp;#x2F;commbankerguy&amp;#x2F;status&amp;#x2F;1634764850126520320...&lt;/a&gt;&lt;p&gt;@Citrini7 shorted $SIVB in late 2022 after marking their holding to market and finding their book value was negative. &lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;twitter.com&amp;#x2F;Citrini7&amp;#x2F;status&amp;#x2F;1583593158738612226?s=20&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;twitter.com&amp;#x2F;Citrini7&amp;#x2F;status&amp;#x2F;1583593158738612226?s=20&lt;/a&gt;&lt;p&gt;Then this dude created an SVB recovery analysis that is legend:&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;docs.google.com&amp;#x2F;spreadsheets&amp;#x2F;d&amp;#x2F;13OyOLDePh85Wna5xcyTihfvWgMKI8Y4ejtLydKvXUrg&amp;#x2F;edit#gid=0&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;docs.google.com&amp;#x2F;spreadsheets&amp;#x2F;d&amp;#x2F;13OyOLDePh85Wna5xcyTi...&lt;/a&gt;</text><parent_chain></parent_chain></comment><story><title>First Republic, other regional bank stocks sink after failure of SVB</title><url>https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/10/first-republic-leads-regional-bank-rout-as-silicon-valley-bank-crisis-raises-fears-about-bond-losses.html</url></story>