<instructions>Your goal is to analyze the following comment and estimate how highly it will be upvoted by the Hacker News community.</instructions><comment><author>refurb</author><text>Your ex-gf&amp;#x27;s story seems a bit off.  First, Gilead didn&amp;#x27;t license it to Roche until 1996 and it was approved in 1999.  About the time it takes to conduct clinical trials and get FDA approval - no apparent delay.&lt;p&gt;The major Asian bird flu epidemic was ~2005, after it was already brought to market.&lt;p&gt;Tamiflu isn&amp;#x27;t a &amp;quot;cure&amp;quot;, the effects are pretty limited, but it&amp;#x27;s used because we have nothing else.&lt;p&gt;Tamiflu has been wildly successful product for Roche, why would they not develop it and instead try to treat &amp;quot;symptoms&amp;quot;?&lt;p&gt;Tamiflu is not in short supply by any means, Roche produces huge stockpiles for the US gov&amp;#x27;t and the shelf life is pretty long.  There is plenty to go around.&lt;p&gt;To summarize, your ex-gf&amp;#x27;s story sounds like a could-be-true story (for those who don&amp;#x27;t know better) that plays to the typical stereotypes for &amp;quot;big pharma&amp;quot;.&lt;p&gt;I&amp;#x27;ll also add that the cost to treat someone with Tamiflu before it went generic was ~$100.  Pretty reasonable considering what drug costs are like in general.</text><parent_chain><item><author>ransom1538</author><text>Oseltamivir. (Tamiflu)&lt;p&gt;My ex-girlfriend (7years) is a big deal chemist at GILD. So I share some under the covers knowledge here. GILD produces some of the best anti-virals on the market [i] (HIV is now a condition).  When GILD discovered the power of Oseltamivir it knew they would not be able to produce the scale needed.  They sold their rights to Roche.  Roche being a sick pro-profits-first company basically shelved the product. Roche wasn&amp;#x27;t interested in the &amp;#x27;cure&amp;#x27; for the flu they were interested in treating the symptoms.  But, as it turns out, china was impacted with bird flu during this period -- and gave no shit about patents and wanted to just save their population.  Phone calls were made and china basically was going to produce it at at massive scale. Thus, Roche quickly started producing the product.  Oseltamivir is amazing at fighting the flu virus. The original purpose was to take Oseltamivir when you have sick family members or know you might be coming down with symptoms. Recently, I came down with the flu (I had the vaccine), I took 4 pills over 2 days and it was turned into a slight cold.  It could save lives. Doctors know this and are reluctant to prescribe it -- since they know it is in short supply and critical populations should get it first. Ironically, doctors reluctance to prescribe it - actually reduces the supply. I say to you, get it, keep it in your refrigerator -- when your 65+ year old dad gets the flu give it to him immediately.&lt;p&gt;[i] &lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.bizjournals.com&amp;#x2F;sanfrancisco&amp;#x2F;news&amp;#x2F;2018&amp;#x2F;02&amp;#x2F;07&amp;#x2F;gilead-gild-biktarvy-hiv-aids-genvoya.html&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.bizjournals.com&amp;#x2F;sanfrancisco&amp;#x2F;news&amp;#x2F;2018&amp;#x2F;02&amp;#x2F;07&amp;#x2F;gil...&lt;/a&gt;</text></item></parent_chain></comment><story><title>How to Know When a Child’s Flu Turns Serious</title><url>https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/07/well/family/children-flu-infants-deaths-influenza-complications-fever-breathing-symptoms.html</url></story>
<instructions>Your goal is to analyze the following comment and estimate how highly it will be upvoted by the Hacker News community.</instructions><comment><author>virusduck</author><text>Your girlfriend is overstating the case. In tissue culture, almost 100% of circulating strains of flu are susceptible to oseltamivir. However, clinical and epi studies have shown, at best, a very modest effect on disease in otherwise healthy adults. It may reduce transmission, but it comes with an increased likelihood of vomiting and diarrhea. It is far more critical for those at risk of complications (the elderly, those with underlying respiratory conditions).&lt;p&gt;Widespread usage of oseltamivir will almost certainly lead to widespread resistance, and there aren&amp;#x27;t many other options for future, particularly nasty flus. This is the reason for the US stockpile--even though the data wasn&amp;#x27;t conclusive on its benefits, oseltamivir was the best plan for pandemic flu.&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;http:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.bmj.com&amp;#x2F;content&amp;#x2F;358&amp;#x2F;bmj.j3266&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;http:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.bmj.com&amp;#x2F;content&amp;#x2F;358&amp;#x2F;bmj.j3266&lt;/a&gt;
&lt;a href=&quot;http:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.bmj.com&amp;#x2F;content&amp;#x2F;348&amp;#x2F;bmj.g2545&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;http:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.bmj.com&amp;#x2F;content&amp;#x2F;348&amp;#x2F;bmj.g2545&lt;/a&gt;
&lt;a href=&quot;http:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.thelancet.com&amp;#x2F;journals&amp;#x2F;lancet&amp;#x2F;article&amp;#x2F;PIIS0140-6736(14)62449-1&amp;#x2F;abstract&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;http:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.thelancet.com&amp;#x2F;journals&amp;#x2F;lancet&amp;#x2F;article&amp;#x2F;PIIS0140-67...&lt;/a&gt;</text><parent_chain><item><author>ransom1538</author><text>Oseltamivir. (Tamiflu)&lt;p&gt;My ex-girlfriend (7years) is a big deal chemist at GILD. So I share some under the covers knowledge here. GILD produces some of the best anti-virals on the market [i] (HIV is now a condition).  When GILD discovered the power of Oseltamivir it knew they would not be able to produce the scale needed.  They sold their rights to Roche.  Roche being a sick pro-profits-first company basically shelved the product. Roche wasn&amp;#x27;t interested in the &amp;#x27;cure&amp;#x27; for the flu they were interested in treating the symptoms.  But, as it turns out, china was impacted with bird flu during this period -- and gave no shit about patents and wanted to just save their population.  Phone calls were made and china basically was going to produce it at at massive scale. Thus, Roche quickly started producing the product.  Oseltamivir is amazing at fighting the flu virus. The original purpose was to take Oseltamivir when you have sick family members or know you might be coming down with symptoms. Recently, I came down with the flu (I had the vaccine), I took 4 pills over 2 days and it was turned into a slight cold.  It could save lives. Doctors know this and are reluctant to prescribe it -- since they know it is in short supply and critical populations should get it first. Ironically, doctors reluctance to prescribe it - actually reduces the supply. I say to you, get it, keep it in your refrigerator -- when your 65+ year old dad gets the flu give it to him immediately.&lt;p&gt;[i] &lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.bizjournals.com&amp;#x2F;sanfrancisco&amp;#x2F;news&amp;#x2F;2018&amp;#x2F;02&amp;#x2F;07&amp;#x2F;gilead-gild-biktarvy-hiv-aids-genvoya.html&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.bizjournals.com&amp;#x2F;sanfrancisco&amp;#x2F;news&amp;#x2F;2018&amp;#x2F;02&amp;#x2F;07&amp;#x2F;gil...&lt;/a&gt;</text></item></parent_chain></comment><story><title>How to Know When a Child’s Flu Turns Serious</title><url>https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/07/well/family/children-flu-infants-deaths-influenza-complications-fever-breathing-symptoms.html</url></story>