<instructions>Your goal is to analyze the following comment and estimate how highly it will be upvoted by the Hacker News community.</instructions><comment><author>TuringNYC</author><text>I&amp;#x27;m not sure I agree. How many tech IPOs have there been this year? 20 or 30? Of those 20 or 30 companies, how many of their peers at founding (~2010-2013) have survived?&lt;p&gt;If I take knowledge of 2020, go back in time, and take a job, it seems like a great deal. If I&amp;#x27;m back in 2010 or 2011, and take only knowledge of the world at that time, would I have chosen AirBNB? I&amp;#x27;m not sure.&lt;p&gt;Even if I did, what are the odds I could&amp;#x2F;would stick around long enough to make it to the IPO -- or was willing to exercise illiquid stock at departure with years to go before the stock can be sold?&lt;p&gt;To make it fair, one should of course also consider companies which did not IPO but had good acquisitions. I&amp;#x27;m not sure what that number is, 300? 3000? Still, across a field of 20,000 or more startups it is unclear how I&amp;#x27;d get to this smaller set.&lt;p&gt;I think there are def things that can increase the odds, but I dont think it is fair to look backwards using 2020 knowledge.</text><parent_chain><item><author>tempsy</author><text>Then 2020 happened and startups are going public at a rate not seen since the dot com days.&lt;p&gt;Whenever an article like this is posted HN seems to immediately raise this issue about how startup equity is just a lottery ticket when the probability of it paying off is clearly so much higher especially at a time when so many startups this year and next are going public at $10B plus valuations.&lt;p&gt;If there was a time to have options at a growing, revenue generating startup it’s today.</text></item><item><author>ludwigvan</author><text>&amp;quot;For most startup employee’s startup stock options are now a bad deal.&amp;quot;&lt;p&gt;&amp;quot;Startup Stock Options – Why A Good Deal Has Gone Bad&amp;quot;&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;steveblank.com&amp;#x2F;2019&amp;#x2F;04&amp;#x2F;10&amp;#x2F;startup-stock-options-why-a-good-deal-has-gone-bad&amp;#x2F;&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;steveblank.com&amp;#x2F;2019&amp;#x2F;04&amp;#x2F;10&amp;#x2F;startup-stock-options-why-...&lt;/a&gt;</text></item></parent_chain></comment><story><title>An Engineer’s Guide to Stock Options (2013)</title><url>https://blog.alexmaccaw.com/an-engineers-guide-to-stock-options#</url></story>
<instructions>Your goal is to analyze the following comment and estimate how highly it will be upvoted by the Hacker News community.</instructions><comment><author>slumpt_</author><text>How many HN posts did we have for all the startups that went under or sold for pennies on the dollar?&lt;p&gt;My friends who spent 6 years at a startup just found out his equity is literally worth pennies on the dollar. It will be a write off at best.&lt;p&gt;2020 as well. This mentality of looking at successful exits is the same now as it was a decade ago or more.</text><parent_chain><item><author>tempsy</author><text>Then 2020 happened and startups are going public at a rate not seen since the dot com days.&lt;p&gt;Whenever an article like this is posted HN seems to immediately raise this issue about how startup equity is just a lottery ticket when the probability of it paying off is clearly so much higher especially at a time when so many startups this year and next are going public at $10B plus valuations.&lt;p&gt;If there was a time to have options at a growing, revenue generating startup it’s today.</text></item><item><author>ludwigvan</author><text>&amp;quot;For most startup employee’s startup stock options are now a bad deal.&amp;quot;&lt;p&gt;&amp;quot;Startup Stock Options – Why A Good Deal Has Gone Bad&amp;quot;&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;steveblank.com&amp;#x2F;2019&amp;#x2F;04&amp;#x2F;10&amp;#x2F;startup-stock-options-why-a-good-deal-has-gone-bad&amp;#x2F;&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;steveblank.com&amp;#x2F;2019&amp;#x2F;04&amp;#x2F;10&amp;#x2F;startup-stock-options-why-...&lt;/a&gt;</text></item></parent_chain></comment><story><title>An Engineer’s Guide to Stock Options (2013)</title><url>https://blog.alexmaccaw.com/an-engineers-guide-to-stock-options#</url></story>