### Preflight Checklist

- [X] I have read the [Contributing Guidelines](https://github.com/electron/electron/blob/main/CONTRIBUTING.md) for this project.
- [X] I agree to follow the [Code of Conduct](https://github.com/electron/electron/blob/main/CODE_OF_CONDUCT.md) that this project adheres to.
- [X] I have searched the [issue tracker](https://www.github.com/electron/electron/issues) for a bug report that matches the one I want to file, without success.

### Electron Version

17.3.1, also affected: 16, 17, 18, 19, 20

### What operating system are you using?

macOS

### Operating System Version

12.3, also affected: Win, Linux

### What arch are you using?

x64

### Last Known Working Electron version

15.3.4

### Expected Behavior

Requesting `app.requestSingleInstanceLock()` on first start of the app should return `true`.

### Actual Behavior

Requesting `app.requestSingleInstanceLock()` on first start of the app returns `false`.

### Testcase Gist URL

https://gist.github.com/6d51100568b78f98c5177cb27d370f9f

### Additional Information

It seems that the issue only exists when setting the `userData` path to a non-existent folder (which is most likely the case when you start the app for the first time on a fresh computer). Subsequent starts result in correct behavior because the folder has been created by then. The issue was not present in E15 and below; I'll bisect further.

The issue becomes problematic when implementing a behavior as described [in the docs](https://www.electronjs.org/docs/latest/api/app#apprequestsingleinstancelockadditionaldata) because the app will just quit on first start:
```js
const gotTheLock = app.requestSingleInstanceLock(additionalData)
if (!gotTheLock) {
  app.quit()
} else {...
```

cc @miniak 

_funfact: this was a pain to debug since it crashed our CI in a very obscure way 😆_ 
shell/browser/api/electron_api_app.cc
WebContents* api_web_contents = WebContents::From(web_contents);
    
    if (api_web_contents) {
      api_web_contents->OnCreateWindow(target_url, referrer, frame_name,
                                       disposition, raw_features, body);
    }
  }
  return false;
}
void App::AllowCertificateError(
    content::WebContents* web_contents,
    int cert_error,
    const net::SSLInfo& ssl_info,
    const GURL& request_url,
    bool is_main_frame_request,
    bool strict_enforcement,
    base::OnceCallback<void(content::CertificateRequestResultType)> callback) {
  auto adapted_callback = base::AdaptCallbackForRepeating(std::move(callback));
  v8::Isolate* isolate = JavascriptEnvironment::GetIsolate();
  v8::Locker locker(isolate);
  v8::HandleScope handle_scope(isolate);
  bool prevent_default = Emit(
      "certificate-error", WebContents::FromOrCreate(isolate, web_contents),
      request_url, net::ErrorToString(cert_error), ssl_info.cert,
      adapted_callback, is_main_frame_request);
  
  if (!prevent_default)
    adapted_callback.Run(content::CERTIFICATE_REQUEST_RESULT_TYPE_DENY);
}
base::OnceClosure App::SelectClientCertificate(