I've seen three builds fail now witht he same error and this started happening on Nov 7 so it's likely we've introduced something here:

https://gradle-enterprise.elastic.co/scans/failures?failures.failureClassification=all_failures&failures.failureMessage=Execution%20failed%20for%20task%20%27:x-pack:qa:rolling-upgrade-multi-cluster:v8.6.0%23follower%23oneThirdUpgradedTest%27.%0A%3E%20%60cluster%7B:x-pack:qa:rolling-upgrade-multi-cluster:v8.6.0-follower%7D%60%20failed%20to%20wait%20for%20cluster%20health%20yellow%20after%2040%20SECONDS%0A%20%20%20%20IO%20error%20while%20waiting%20cluster%0A%20%20%20%20%20%20503%20Service%20Unavailable&search.relativeStartTime=P28D&search.timeZoneId=America/Los_Angeles#

```
* What went wrong:
Execution failed for task ':x-pack:qa:rolling-upgrade-multi-cluster:v8.6.0#follower#oneThirdUpgradedTest'.
> `cluster{:x-pack:qa:rolling-upgrade-multi-cluster:v8.6.0-follower}` failed to wait for cluster health yellow after 40 SECONDS
    IO error while waiting cluster
      503 Service Unavailable
```

It seems the follower cluster is having issues coming back up after upgrade.
server/src/main/java/org/elasticsearch/cluster/routing/allocation/allocator/DesiredBalanceReconciler.java
/*
 * Copyright Elasticsearch B.V. and/or licensed to Elasticsearch B.V. under one
 * or more contributor license agreements. Licensed under the Elastic License
 * 2.0 and the Server Side Public License, v 1; you may not use this file except
 * in compliance with, at your election, the Elastic License 2.0 or the Server
 * Side Public License, v 1.
 */
package org.elasticsearch.cluster.routing.allocation.allocator;
import org.apache.logging.log4j.LogManager;
import org.apache.logging.log4j.Logger;
import org.apache.lucene.util.ArrayUtil;
import org.elasticsearch.cluster.metadata.SingleNodeShutdownMetadata;
import org.elasticsearch.cluster.node.DiscoveryNode;
import org.elasticsearch.cluster.routing.RoutingNode;
import org.elasticsearch.cluster.routing.RoutingNodes;
import org.elasticsearch.cluster.routing.ShardRouting;
import org.elasticsearch.cluster.routing.UnassignedInfo;
import org.elasticsearch.cluster.routing.allocation.RoutingAllocation;
import org.elasticsearch.cluster.routing.allocation.decider.Decision;
import org.elasticsearch.cluster.routing.allocation.decider.DiskThresholdDecider;
import org.elasticsearch.core.Tuple;
import org.elasticsearch.gateway.PriorityComparator;
import org.elasticsearch.index.shard.ShardId;
import java.util.Collections;
import java.util.Comparator;
import java.util.List;