**Build scan:**
https://gradle-enterprise.elastic.co/s/nnann4bjdvxxe/tests/:qa:rolling-upgrade:v8.9.0%23oneThirdUpgradedTest/org.elasticsearch.upgrades.RecoveryIT/testClosedIndexNoopRecovery

**Reproduction line:**
```
./gradlew ':qa:rolling-upgrade:v8.9.0#oneThirdUpgradedTest' -Dtests.class="org.elasticsearch.upgrades.RecoveryIT" -Dtests.method="testClosedIndexNoopRecovery" -Dtests.seed=B2CC9E996730905C -Dtests.bwc=true -Dtests.locale=ga-IE -Dtests.timezone=Asia/Yakutsk -Druntime.java=20
```

**Applicable branches:**
8.9

**Reproduces locally?:**
Didn't try

**Failure history:**
https://gradle-enterprise.elastic.co/scans/tests?tests.container=org.elasticsearch.upgrades.RecoveryIT&tests.test=testClosedIndexNoopRecovery

**Failure excerpt:**
```
java.lang.AssertionError: must find replica

  at __randomizedtesting.SeedInfo.seed([B2CC9E996730905C:1EFE851D8E457298]:0)
  at org.junit.Assert.fail(Assert.java:88)
  at org.junit.Assert.assertTrue(Assert.java:41)
  at org.elasticsearch.upgrades.RecoveryIT.assertNoopRecoveries(RecoveryIT.java:644)
  at org.elasticsearch.upgrades.RecoveryIT.testClosedIndexNoopRecovery(RecoveryIT.java:511)
  at jdk.internal.reflect.DirectMethodHandleAccessor.invoke(DirectMethodHandleAccessor.java:104)
  at java.lang.reflect.Method.invoke(Method.java:578)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.RandomizedRunner.invoke(RandomizedRunner.java:1758)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.RandomizedRunner$8.evaluate(RandomizedRunner.java:946)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.RandomizedRunner$9.evaluate(RandomizedRunner.java:982)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.RandomizedRunner$10.evaluate(RandomizedRunner.java:996)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.rules.StatementAdapter.evaluate(StatementAdapter.java:36)
  at org.apache.lucene.tests.util.TestRuleSetupTeardownChained$1.evaluate(TestRuleSetupTeardownChained.java:48)
  at org.apache.lucene.tests.util.AbstractBeforeAfterRule$1.evaluate(AbstractBeforeAfterRule.java:43)
  at org.apache.lucene.tests.util.TestRuleThreadAndTestName$1.evaluate(TestRuleThreadAndTestName.java:45)
  at org.apache.lucene.tests.util.TestRuleIgnoreAfterMaxFailures$1.evaluate(TestRuleIgnoreAfterMaxFailures.java:60)
  at org.apache.lucene.tests.util.TestRuleMarkFailure$1.evaluate(TestRuleMarkFailure.java:44)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.rules.StatementAdapter.evaluate(StatementAdapter.java:36)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.ThreadLeakControl$StatementRunner.run(ThreadLeakControl.java:390)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.ThreadLeakControl.forkTimeoutingTask(ThreadLeakControl.java:843)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.ThreadLeakControl$3.evaluate(ThreadLeakControl.java:490)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.RandomizedRunner.runSingleTest(RandomizedRunner.java:955)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.RandomizedRunner$5.evaluate(RandomizedRunner.java:840)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.RandomizedRunner$6.evaluate(RandomizedRunner.java:891)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.RandomizedRunner$7.evaluate(RandomizedRunner.java:902)
  at org.apache.lucene.tests.util.AbstractBeforeAfterRule$1.evaluate(AbstractBeforeAfterRule.java:43)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.rules.StatementAdapter.evaluate(StatementAdapter.java:36)
  at org.apache.lucene.tests.util.TestRuleStoreClassName$1.evaluate(TestRuleStoreClassName.java:38)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.rules.NoShadowingOrOverridesOnMethodsRule$1.evaluate(NoShadowingOrOverridesOnMethodsRule.java:40)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.rules.NoShadowingOrOverridesOnMethodsRule$1.evaluate(NoShadowingOrOverridesOnMethodsRule.java:40)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.rules.StatementAdapter.evaluate(StatementAdapter.java:36)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.rules.StatementAdapter.evaluate(StatementAdapter.java:36)
  at org.apache.lucene.tests.util.TestRuleAssertionsRequired$1.evaluate(TestRuleAssertionsRequired.java:53)
  at org.apache.lucene.tests.util.AbstractBeforeAfterRule$1.evaluate(AbstractBeforeAfterRule.java:43)
  at org.apache.lucene.tests.util.TestRuleMarkFailure$1.evaluate(TestRuleMarkFailure.java:44)
  at org.apache.lucene.tests.util.TestRuleIgnoreAfterMaxFailures$1.evaluate(TestRuleIgnoreAfterMaxFailures.java:60)
  at org.apache.lucene.tests.util.TestRuleIgnoreTestSuites$1.evaluate(TestRuleIgnoreTestSuites.java:47)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.rules.StatementAdapter.evaluate(StatementAdapter.java:36)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.ThreadLeakControl$StatementRunner.run(ThreadLeakControl.java:390)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.ThreadLeakControl.lambda$forkTimeoutingTask$0(ThreadLeakControl.java:850)
  at java.lang.Thread.run(Thread.java:1623)

```
qa/rolling-upgrade/src/test/java/org/elasticsearch/upgrades/RecoveryIT.java
final String versionCreatedSetting = indexName + ".settings.index.version.created";
        request.addParameter("filter_path", versionCreatedSetting);
        final Response response = client().performRequest(request);
        return Version.fromId(Integer.parseInt(ObjectPath.createFromResponse(response).evaluate(versionCreatedSetting)));
    }
    /**
     * Asserts that an index is closed in the cluster state. If `checkRoutingTable` is true, it also asserts
     * that the index has started shards.
     */
    @SuppressWarnings("unchecked")
    private void assertClosedIndex(final String index, final boolean checkRoutingTable) throws IOException {
        final Map<String, ?> state = entityAsMap(client().performRequest(new Request("GET", "/_cluster/state")));
        final Map<String, ?> metadata = (Map<String, Object>) XContentMapValues.extractValue("metadata.indices." + index, state);
        assertThat(metadata, notNullValue());
        assertThat(metadata.get("state"), equalTo("close"));
        final Map<String, ?> blocks = (Map<String, Object>) XContentMapValues.extractValue("blocks.indices." + index, state);
        assertThat(blocks, notNullValue());
        assertThat(blocks.containsKey(String.valueOf(MetadataIndexStateService.INDEX_CLOSED_BLOCK_ID)), is(true));
        final Map<String, ?> settings = (Map<String, Object>) XContentMapValues.extractValue("settings", metadata);
        assertThat(settings, notNullValue());
        final int numberOfShards = Integer.parseInt((String) XContentMapValues.extractValue("index.number_of_shards", settings));
        final int numberOfReplicas = Integer.parseInt((String) XContentMapValues.extractValue("index.number_of_replicas", settings));
        final Map<String, ?> routingTable = (Map<String, Object>) XContentMapValues.extractValue("routing_table.indices." + index, state);
        if (checkRoutingTable) {
            assertThat(routingTable, notNullValue());
            assertThat(Booleans.parseBoolean((String) XContentMapValues.extractValue("index.verified_before_close", settings)), is(true));
            for (int i = 0; i < numberOfShards; i++) {
                final Collection<Map<String, ?>> shards = (Collection<Map<String, ?>>) XContentMapValues.extractValue(
                    "shards." + i,
                    routingTable