### Preflight Checklist

- [X] I have read the [Contributing Guidelines](https://github.com/electron/electron/blob/main/CONTRIBUTING.md) for this project.
- [X] I agree to follow the [Code of Conduct](https://github.com/electron/electron/blob/main/CODE_OF_CONDUCT.md) that this project adheres to.
- [X] I have searched the [issue tracker](https://www.github.com/electron/electron/issues) for a bug report that matches the one I want to file, without success.

### Electron Version

17.3.1, also affected: 16, 17, 18, 19, 20

### What operating system are you using?

macOS

### Operating System Version

12.3, also affected: Win, Linux

### What arch are you using?

x64

### Last Known Working Electron version

15.3.4

### Expected Behavior

Requesting `app.requestSingleInstanceLock()` on first start of the app should return `true`.

### Actual Behavior

Requesting `app.requestSingleInstanceLock()` on first start of the app returns `false`.

### Testcase Gist URL

https://gist.github.com/6d51100568b78f98c5177cb27d370f9f

### Additional Information

It seems that the issue only exists when setting the `userData` path to a non-existent folder (which is most likely the case when you start the app for the first time on a fresh computer). Subsequent starts result in correct behavior because the folder has been created by then. The issue was not present in E15 and below; I'll bisect further.

The issue becomes problematic when implementing a behavior as described [in the docs](https://www.electronjs.org/docs/latest/api/app#apprequestsingleinstancelockadditionaldata) because the app will just quit on first start:
```js
const gotTheLock = app.requestSingleInstanceLock(additionalData)
if (!gotTheLock) {
  app.quit()
} else {...
```

cc @miniak 

_funfact: this was a pain to debug since it crashed our CI in a very obscure way 😆_ 
shell/browser/api/electron_api_app.cc
std::string file_data, cert_path;
  std::u16string password;
  net::ScopedCERTCertificateList imported_certs;
  int rv = -1;
  std::string* cert_path_ptr = options.FindStringKey("certificate");
  if (cert_path_ptr)
    cert_path = *cert_path_ptr;
  std::string* pwd = options.FindStringKey("password");
  if (pwd)
    password = base::UTF8ToUTF16(*pwd);
  if (!cert_path.empty()) {
    if (base::ReadFileToString(base::FilePath(cert_path), &file_data)) {
      auto module = model->cert_db()->GetPrivateSlot();
      rv = model->ImportFromPKCS12(module.get(), file_data, password, true,
                                   &imported_certs);
      if (imported_certs.size() > 1) {
        auto it = imported_certs.begin();
        ++it;  
        for (; it != imported_certs.end(); ++it)
          rv &= model->SetCertTrust(it->get(), net::CA_CERT,
                                    net::NSSCertDatabase::TRUSTED_SSL);
      }
    }
  }
  return rv;
}
#endif
void OnIconDataAvailable(gin_helper::Promise<gfx::Image> promise,