### Preflight Checklist

- [X] I have read the [Contributing Guidelines](https://github.com/electron/electron/blob/main/CONTRIBUTING.md) for this project.
- [X] I agree to follow the [Code of Conduct](https://github.com/electron/electron/blob/main/CODE_OF_CONDUCT.md) that this project adheres to.
- [X] I have searched the [issue tracker](https://www.github.com/electron/electron/issues) for a bug report that matches the one I want to file, without success.

### Electron Version

17.3.1, also affected: 16, 17, 18, 19, 20

### What operating system are you using?

macOS

### Operating System Version

12.3, also affected: Win, Linux

### What arch are you using?

x64

### Last Known Working Electron version

15.3.4

### Expected Behavior

Requesting `app.requestSingleInstanceLock()` on first start of the app should return `true`.

### Actual Behavior

Requesting `app.requestSingleInstanceLock()` on first start of the app returns `false`.

### Testcase Gist URL

https://gist.github.com/6d51100568b78f98c5177cb27d370f9f

### Additional Information

It seems that the issue only exists when setting the `userData` path to a non-existent folder (which is most likely the case when you start the app for the first time on a fresh computer). Subsequent starts result in correct behavior because the folder has been created by then. The issue was not present in E15 and below; I'll bisect further.

The issue becomes problematic when implementing a behavior as described [in the docs](https://www.electronjs.org/docs/latest/api/app#apprequestsingleinstancelockadditionaldata) because the app will just quit on first start:
```js
const gotTheLock = app.requestSingleInstanceLock(additionalData)
if (!gotTheLock) {
  app.quit()
} else {...
```

cc @miniak 

_funfact: this was a pain to debug since it crashed our CI in a very obscure way 😆_ 
shell/browser/api/electron_api_app.cc
const base::RepeatingCallback<
        void(const base::CommandLine& command_line,
             const base::FilePath& current_directory,
             const std::vector<uint8_t> additional_data,
             const ProcessSingleton::NotificationAckCallback& ack_callback)>&
        callback,
    const base::CommandLine& cmd,
    const base::FilePath& cwd,
    const std::vector<uint8_t> additional_data,
    const ProcessSingleton::NotificationAckCallback& ack_callback) {
  
  if (Browser::Get()->is_ready()) {
    callback.Run(cmd, cwd, std::move(additional_data), ack_callback);
  } else {
    scoped_refptr<base::SingleThreadTaskRunner> task_runner(
        base::ThreadTaskRunnerHandle::Get());
    
    task_runner->PostTask(
        FROM_HERE, base::BindOnce(base::IgnoreResult(callback), cmd, cwd,
                                  std::move(additional_data), ack_callback));
  }
  
  return !Browser::Get()->is_shutting_down();
}
void GotPrivateKey(std::shared_ptr<content::ClientCertificateDelegate> delegate,