### Preflight Checklist

- [X] I have read the [Contributing Guidelines](https://github.com/electron/electron/blob/main/CONTRIBUTING.md) for this project.
- [X] I agree to follow the [Code of Conduct](https://github.com/electron/electron/blob/main/CODE_OF_CONDUCT.md) that this project adheres to.
- [X] I have searched the [issue tracker](https://www.github.com/electron/electron/issues) for a bug report that matches the one I want to file, without success.

### Electron Version

17.3.1, also affected: 16, 17, 18, 19, 20

### What operating system are you using?

macOS

### Operating System Version

12.3, also affected: Win, Linux

### What arch are you using?

x64

### Last Known Working Electron version

15.3.4

### Expected Behavior

Requesting `app.requestSingleInstanceLock()` on first start of the app should return `true`.

### Actual Behavior

Requesting `app.requestSingleInstanceLock()` on first start of the app returns `false`.

### Testcase Gist URL

https://gist.github.com/6d51100568b78f98c5177cb27d370f9f

### Additional Information

It seems that the issue only exists when setting the `userData` path to a non-existent folder (which is most likely the case when you start the app for the first time on a fresh computer). Subsequent starts result in correct behavior because the folder has been created by then. The issue was not present in E15 and below; I'll bisect further.

The issue becomes problematic when implementing a behavior as described [in the docs](https://www.electronjs.org/docs/latest/api/app#apprequestsingleinstancelockadditionaldata) because the app will just quit on first start:
```js
const gotTheLock = app.requestSingleInstanceLock(additionalData)
if (!gotTheLock) {
  app.quit()
} else {...
```

cc @miniak 

_funfact: this was a pain to debug since it crashed our CI in a very obscure way 😆_ 
shell/browser/api/electron_api_app.cc
.SetMethod("showEmojiPanel",
                 base::BindRepeating(&Browser::ShowEmojiPanel, browser))
#endif
#if BUILDFLAG(IS_WIN)
      .SetMethod("setUserTasks",
                 base::BindRepeating(&Browser::SetUserTasks, browser))
      .SetMethod("getJumpListSettings", &App::GetJumpListSettings)
      .SetMethod("setJumpList", &App::SetJumpList)
#endif
#if BUILDFLAG(IS_LINUX)
      .SetMethod("isUnityRunning",
                 base::BindRepeating(&Browser::IsUnityRunning, browser))
#endif
      .SetProperty("isPackaged", &App::IsPackaged)
      .SetMethod("setAppPath", &App::SetAppPath)
      .SetMethod("getAppPath", &App::GetAppPath)
      .SetMethod("setPath", &App::SetPath)
      .SetMethod("getPath", &App::GetPath)
      .SetMethod("setAppLogsPath", &App::SetAppLogsPath)
      .SetMethod("setDesktopName", &App::SetDesktopName)
      .SetMethod("getLocale", &App::GetLocale)
      .SetMethod("getLocaleCountryCode", &App::GetLocaleCountryCode)
#if BUILDFLAG(USE_NSS_CERTS)
      .SetMethod("importCertificate", &App::ImportCertificate)
#endif
      .SetMethod("hasSingleInstanceLock", &App::HasSingleInstanceLock)
      .SetMethod("requestSingleInstanceLock", &App::RequestSingleInstanceLock)
      .SetMethod("releaseSingleInstanceLock", &App::ReleaseSingleInstanceLock)
      .SetMethod("relaunch", &App::Relaunch)
      .SetMethod("isAccessibilitySupportEnabled",