Long-term evolution of the Galilean satellites: the capture of Callisto into resonance
Context. The strong tidal dissipation in the couple Jupiter-Io is spread to all the moons involved in the Laplace resonance (Io, Europa, and Ganymede), leading to a migration of their orbits. Aims. We aim to characterize the future behavior of the Galilean satellites over the Solar System lifetime and to quantify the stability of the Laplace resonance. Since tidal dissipation makes possible the exit from the current resonances or capture into new ones, we investigate the capture of Callisto into resonance. Methods. We perform hundreds of propagations using an improved version of a recent semi-analytical model. As Ganymede moves outwards, it approaches the 2:1 resonance with Callisto, inducing a temporary chaotic motion in the system. For this reason, we draw a statistical picture of the outcome of the resonant encounter. Results. The system can settle into two distinct outcomes: A) a chain of three 2:1 two-body resonances (Io-Europa, Europa-Ganymede and Ganymede-Callisto), or B) a resonant chain involving the 2:1 two-body resonance Io-Europa plus at least one pure 4:2:1 three-body resonance, most frequently between Europa, Ganymede and Callisto. In case A (56\% of the simulations), the Laplace resonance is always preserved and the eccentricities remain confined to small values below 0.01. In case B (44\% of the simulations), the Laplace resonance is generally disrupted and the eccentricities of Ganymede and Callisto can increase up to about 0.1, making this configuration unstable and driving the system into new resonances. Conclusion. From our results, the capture of Callisto into resonance appears to be extremely likely (100\% of our simulations). Assuming the most recent estimate of the dissipation between Io and Jupiter, the resonant encounter happens at about 1.5 Gyrs from now. Therefore, the stability of the Laplace resonance is guaranteed at least up to about 1.5 Gyrs.