Climate Change and Future Food Security: Predicting the Extent of Cropland Gain or Degradation
Agriculture is crucial in sustaining human life and civilization that relies heavily on natural resources. This industry faces new challenges, such as climate change, a growing global population, and new models for managing food security and water resources. Through a machine learning framework, we estimate the future productivity of croplands based on CMIP5 climate projections on moderate carbon emission scenario. We demonstrate that Vietnam and Thailand are at risk with a 10\% and 14\% drop in rice production, respectively, whereas the Philippines is expected to increase its output by 11\% by 2026 compared with 2018. We urge proactive international collaboration between regions facing crop land gain and degradation to mitigate the climate change and population growth impacts reducing our society's vulnerability. Our study provides critical information on the effects of climate change and human activities on land productivity and uses that may assist such collaboration.