W2E-003 Ulster editorials 3-1.txt
Irish rainbow
WHOEVER emerges as Taoiseach from a mould-breaking election in the Republic, Dick Spring is the obvious winner and Albert Reynolds the loser. For a major party to double its representation, as Labour appears to have done, is a spectacular success - making Fianna Fail's failure to win an overall majority all the more humiliating. Mr Reynolds'only consolation is that the main Opposition party, Fine Gael, fared even worse, signalling that the days of one-party government in the Republic may have gone for good. The electorate may havefinally turned away from old-style Civil War politics, dominated by Fianna Fail and Fine Gael, in favour of rainbow coalitions covering the spectrum from Left to Right.
Mr Reynolds paid the penalty for calling an election no one wanted, at a time and on grounds that no other Taoiseach would have chosen. His association with the economic recession - and, coincidentally, with obscure wording on the substantive abortion referendum - encouraged a protest vote against the government, which Labour was able to capitalise upon. A public which has seen its standard of living eroded, and which is suffering record unemployment, gladly seized on Labour's high-spending promises, even though it may have voted more in hope than expectation. The PDs were seemingly unaffected by their unhappy term in the coalition government - probably because Des O'Malley was regarded as a victim of Fianna Fail chicanery - and Fine Gael seem unable to produce a credible leader.

Now begins the difficult business of building a government from the indecision of the election result. Fianna Fail are still unchallenged as the largest party, but their only hope of retaining power is in coalition - almost certainly under a new leader. While almost any combination is possible, the politicians can hardly ignore the electorate's clear desire for change. Mr Spring might prefer to avoid the difficult economic decisions which will be necessary, in order to build on his popularity, but he is almost obliged to play his part in government, so overwhelming was his mandate. The problem for the next Taoiseach, of whatever colour, will be to convince the country - and the world at large - that his government has the stability to weather future economic and political storms. As far as Northern Ireland is concerned, any government which can show more sensitivity towards the unionist position - which excludes the present Fianna Fail leadership - would be an improvement.
