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Paper:
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A Human-AI Loop Approach for Joint Keyword Discovery and Expectation Estimation in Micropost Event Detection

Microblogging platforms such as Twitter are increasingly being used in event detection. Existing approaches mainly use machine learning models and rely on event-related keywords to collect the data for model training. These approaches make strong assumptions on the distribution of the relevant micro-posts containing the keyword -- referred to as the expectation of the distribution -- and use it as a posterior regularization parameter during model training. Such approaches are, however, limited as they fail to reliably estimate the informativeness of a keyword and its expectation for model training. This paper introduces a Human-AI loop approach to jointly discover informative keywords for model training while estimating their expectation. Our approach iteratively leverages the crowd to estimate both keyword specific expectation and the disagreement between the crowd and the model in order to discover new keywords that are most beneficial for model training. These keywords and their expectation not only improve the resulting performance but also make the model training process more transparent. We empirically demonstrate the merits of our approach, both in terms of accuracy and interpretability, on multiple real-world datasets and show that our approach improves the state of the art by 24.3%.

Introduction
Event detection on microblogging platforms such as Twitter aims to detect events preemptively. A main task in event detection is detecting events of predetermined types BIBREF0, such as concerts or controversial events based on microposts matching specific event descriptions. This task has extensive applications ranging from cyber security BIBREF1, BIBREF2 to political elections BIBREF3 or public health BIBREF4, BIBREF5. Due to the high ambiguity and inconsistency of the terms used in microposts, event detection is generally performed though statistical machine learning models, which require a labeled dataset for model training. Data labeling is, however, a long, laborious, and usually costly process. For the case of micropost classification, though positive labels can be collected (e.g., using specific hashtags, or event-related date-time information), there is no straightforward way to generate negative labels useful for model training. To tackle this lack of negative labels and the significant manual efforts in data labeling, BIBREF1 (BIBREF1, BIBREF3) introduced a weak supervision based learning approach, which uses only positively labeled data, accompanied by unlabeled examples by filtering microposts that contain a certain keyword indicative of the event type under consideration (e.g., `hack' for cyber security). Another key technique in this context is expectation regularization BIBREF6, BIBREF7, BIBREF1. Here, the estimated proportion of relevant microposts in an unlabeled dataset containing a keyword is given as a keyword-specific expectation. This expectation is used in the regularization term of the model's objective function to constrain the posterior distribution of the model predictions. By doing so, the model is trained with an expectation on its prediction for microposts that contain the keyword. Such a method, however, suffers from two key problems:
Due to the unpredictability of event occurrences and the constantly changing dynamics of users' posting frequency BIBREF8, estimating the expectation associated with a keyword is a challenging task, even for domain experts;
The performance of the event detection model is constrained by the informativeness of the keyword used for model training. As of now, we lack a principled method for discovering new keywords and improve the model performance.
To address the above issues, we advocate a human-AI loop approach for discovering informative keywords and estimating their expectations reliably. Our approach iteratively leverages 1) crowd workers for estimating keyword-specific expectations, and 2) the disagreement between the model and the crowd for discovering new informative keywords. More specifically, at each iteration after we obtain a keyword-specific expectation from the crowd, we train the model using expectation regularization and select those keyword-related microposts for which the model's prediction disagrees the most with the crowd's expectation; such microposts are then presented to the crowd to identify new keywords that best explain the disagreement. By doing so, our approach identifies new keywords which convey more relevant information with respect to existing ones, thus effectively boosting model performance. By exploiting the disagreement between the model and the crowd, our approach can make efficient use of the crowd, which is of critical importance in a human-in-the-loop context BIBREF9, BIBREF10. An additional advantage of our approach is that by obtaining new keywords that improve model performance over time, we are able to gain insight into how the model learns for specific event detection tasks. Such an advantage is particularly useful for event detection using complex models, e.g., deep neural networks, which are intrinsically hard to understand BIBREF11, BIBREF12. An additional challenge in involving crowd workers is that their contributions are not fully reliable BIBREF13. In the crowdsourcing literature, this problem is usually tackled with probabilistic latent variable models BIBREF14, BIBREF15, BIBREF16, which are used to perform truth inference by aggregating a redundant set of crowd contributions. Our human-AI loop approach improves the inference of keyword expectation by aggregating contributions not only from the crowd but also from the model. This, however, comes with its own challenge as the model's predictions are further dependent on the results of expectation inference, which is used for model training. To address this problem, we introduce a unified probabilistic model that seamlessly integrates expectation inference and model training, thereby allowing the former to benefit from the latter while resolving the inter-dependency between the two.
To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to propose a human-AI loop approach that iteratively improves machine learning models for event detection. In summary, our work makes the following key contributions:
A novel human-AI loop approach for micropost event detection that jointly discovers informative keywords and estimates their expectation;
A unified probabilistic model that infers keyword expectation and simultaneously performs model training;
An extensive empirical evaluation of our approach on multiple real-world datasets demonstrating that our approach significantly improves the state of the art by an average of 24.3% AUC.
The rest of this paper is organized as follows. First, we present our human-AI loop approach in Section SECREF2. Subsequently, we introduce our proposed probabilistic model in Section SECREF3. The experimental setup and results are presented in Section SECREF4. Finally, we briefly cover related work in Section SECREF5 before concluding our work in Section SECREF6.

Experiments and Results ::: Experimental Setup
Datasets. We perform our experiments with two predetermined event categories: cyber security (CyberAttack) and death of politicians (PoliticianDeath). These event categories are chosen as they are representative of important event types that are of interest to many governments and companies. The need to create our own dataset was motivated by the lack of public datasets for event detection on microposts. The few available datasets do not suit our requirements. For example, the publicly available Events-2012 Twitter dataset BIBREF20 contains generic event descriptions such as Politics, Sports, Culture etc. Our work targets more specific event categories BIBREF21. Following previous studies BIBREF1, we collect event-related microposts from Twitter using 11 and 8 seed events (see Section SECREF2) for CyberAttack and PoliticianDeath, respectively. Unlabeled microposts are collected by using the keyword `hack' for CyberAttack, while for PoliticianDeath, we use a set of keywords related to `politician' and `death' (such as `bureaucrat', `dead' etc.) For each dataset, we randomly select 500 tweets from the unlabeled subset and manually label them for evaluation. Table TABREF25 shows key statistics from our two datasets.
Comparison Methods. To demonstrate the generality of our approach on different event detection models, we consider Logistic Regression (LR) BIBREF1 and Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) BIBREF2 as the target models. As the goal of our experiments is to demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach as a new model training technique, we use these widely used models. Also, we note that in our case other neural network models with more complex network architectures for event detection, such as the bi-directional LSTM BIBREF17, turn out to be less effective than a simple feedforward network. For both LR and MLP, we evaluate our proposed human-AI loop approach for keyword discovery and expectation estimation by comparing against the weakly supervised learning method proposed by BIBREF1 (BIBREF1) and BIBREF17 (BIBREF17) where only one initial keyword is used with an expectation estimated by an individual expert.
Parameter Settings. We empirically set optimal parameters based on a held-out validation set that contains 20% of the test data. These include the hyperparamters of the target model, those of our proposed probabilistic model, and the parameters used for training the target model. We explore MLP with 1, 2 and 3 hidden layers and apply a grid search in 32, 64, 128, 256, 512 for the dimension of the embeddings and that of the hidden layers. For the coefficient of expectation regularization, we follow BIBREF6 (BIBREF6) and set it to $\lambda =10 \times $ #labeled examples. For model training, we use the Adam BIBREF22 optimization algorithm for both models.
Evaluation. Following BIBREF1 (BIBREF1) and BIBREF3 (BIBREF3), we use accuracy and area under the precision-recall curve (AUC) metrics to measure the performance of our proposed approach. We note that due to the imbalance in our datasets (20% positive microposts in CyberAttack and 27% in PoliticianDeath), accuracy is dominated by negative examples; AUC, in comparison, better characterizes the discriminative power of the model.
Crowdsourcing. We chose Level 3 workers on the Figure-Eight crowdsourcing platform for our experiments. The inter-annotator agreement in micropost classification is taken into account through the EM algorithm. For keyword discovery, we filter keywords based on the frequency of the keyword being selected by the crowd. In terms of cost-effectiveness, our approach is motivated from the fact that crowdsourced data annotation can be expensive, and is thus designed with minimal crowd involvement. For each iteration, we selected 50 tweets for keyword discovery and 50 tweets for micropost classification per keyword. For a dataset with 80k tweets (e.g., CyberAttack), our approach only requires to manually inspect 800 tweets (for 8 keywords), which is only 1% of the entire dataset.
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Question: How are the accuracy merits of the approach demonstrated?

To answer the question, format your response as a `json` object with two fields:

"answer": A string providing a succinct answer to the question, in your own words.
"evidence": An array of strings. Each entry should be a full paragraph from the paper. Together, the evidence should serve as a justification for the answer.

For instance, for the question "What baselines did the authors compare against?", a sample response might be:

{
  "answer": "BERT and RoBERTa."
  "evidence": ["We compare our approach against two baselines. In Table 1, we compare against BERT. In Table 2, we compare against RoBERTa. Our findings indicate that our approach improves over both baeslines..."]
}

The "answer" field should be roughly 68 characters in length.

Do not include any text in your response other than the json. If the question is unanswerable given the provided excerpts, respond with the single word "null".

To repeat, the question is: How are the accuracy merits of the approach demonstrated?

Answer JSON object:
{"answer": "By evaluating the performance of the approach using accuracy and AUC", "evidence": ["Evaluation. Following BIBREF1 (BIBREF1) and BIBREF3 (BIBREF3), we use accuracy and area under the precision-recall curve (AUC) metrics to measure the performance of our proposed approach. We note that due to the imbalance in our datasets (20% positive microposts in CyberAttack and 27% in PoliticianDeath), accuracy is dominated by negative examples; AUC, in comparison, better characterizes the discriminative power of the model."]}