You will be shown sections from a scientific research paper, together with a question about the paper. Your task is to answer the question based on the contents of the paper. Your response should be a `json` object with two fields:

"answer": An array of strings extracted directly from the paper which, collectively, answer the question.
"evidence": An array of strings. Each should be an excerpt from the paper, in which one or more of the extracted answers can be found.

For instance, for the question "What baselines did the authors compare against?", a sample response might be:

{
  "answer": ["BERT", "RoBERTa"],
  "evidence": ["In our experiments, we compare the performance of our model against BERT and RoBERTa."]
}

Do not include any text in your response other than the json.

If the question is unanswerable given the provided excerpts, respond with the single word "null".

Paper: Trouble on the Horizon: Forecasting the Derailment of Online Conversations as they Develop

Online discussions often derail into toxic exchanges between participants. Recent efforts mostly focused on detecting antisocial behavior after the fact, by analyzing single comments in isolation. To provide more timely notice to human moderators, a system needs to preemptively detect that a conversation is heading towards derailment before it actually turns toxic. This means modeling derailment as an emerging property of a conversation rather than as an isolated utterance-level event.  ::: Forecasting emerging conversational properties, however, poses several inherent modeling challenges. First, since conversations are dynamic, a forecasting model needs to capture the flow of the discussion, rather than properties of individual comments. Second, real conversations have an unknown horizon: they can end or derail at any time; thus a practical forecasting model needs to assess the risk in an online fashion, as the conversation develops. In this work we introduce a conversational forecasting model that learns an unsupervised representation of conversational dynamics and exploits it to predict future derailment as the conversation develops. By applying this model to two new diverse datasets of online conversations with labels for antisocial events, we show that it outperforms state-of-the-art systems at forecasting derailment.

Introduction
“Ché saetta previsa vien più lenta.”
– Dante Alighieri, Divina Commedia, Paradiso
Antisocial behavior is a persistent problem plaguing online conversation platforms; it is both widespread BIBREF0 and potentially damaging to mental and emotional health BIBREF1, BIBREF2. The strain this phenomenon puts on community maintainers has sparked recent interest in computational approaches for assisting human moderators.
Prior work in this direction has largely focused on post-hoc identification of various kinds of antisocial behavior, including hate speech BIBREF3, BIBREF4, harassment BIBREF5, personal attacks BIBREF6, and general toxicity BIBREF7. The fact that these approaches only identify antisocial content after the fact limits their practicality as tools for assisting pre-emptive moderation in conversational domains.
Addressing this limitation requires forecasting the future derailment of a conversation based on early warning signs, giving the moderators time to potentially intervene before any harm is done (BIBREF8 BIBREF8, BIBREF9 BIBREF9, see BIBREF10 BIBREF10 for a discussion). Such a goal recognizes derailment as emerging from the development of the conversation, and belongs to the broader area of conversational forecasting, which includes future-prediction tasks such as predicting the eventual length of a conversation BIBREF11, whether a persuasion attempt will eventually succeed BIBREF12, BIBREF13, BIBREF14, whether team discussions will eventually lead to an increase in performance BIBREF15, or whether ongoing counseling conversations will eventually be perceived as helpful BIBREF16.
Approaching such conversational forecasting problems, however, requires overcoming several inherent modeling challenges. First, conversations are dynamic and their outcome might depend on how subsequent comments interact with each other. Consider the example in Figure FIGREF2: while no individual comment is outright offensive, a human reader can sense a tension emerging from their succession (e.g., dismissive answers to repeated questioning). Thus a forecasting model needs to capture not only the content of each individual comment, but also the relations between comments. Previous work has largely relied on hand-crafted features to capture such relations—e.g., similarity between comments BIBREF16, BIBREF12 or conversation structure BIBREF17, BIBREF18—, though neural attention architectures have also recently shown promise BIBREF19.
The second modeling challenge stems from the fact that conversations have an unknown horizon: they can be of varying lengths, and the to-be-forecasted event can occur at any time. So when is it a good time to make a forecast? Prior work has largely proposed two solutions, both resulting in important practical limitations. One solution is to assume (unrealistic) prior knowledge of when the to-be-forecasted event takes place and extract features up to that point BIBREF20, BIBREF8. Another compromising solution is to extract features from a fixed-length window, often at the start of the conversation BIBREF21, BIBREF15, BIBREF16, BIBREF9. Choosing a catch-all window-size is however impractical: short windows will miss information in comments they do not encompass (e.g., a window of only two comments would miss the chain of repeated questioning in comments 3 through 6 of Figure FIGREF2), while longer windows risk missing the to-be-forecasted event altogether if it occurs before the end of the window, which would prevent early detection.
In this work we introduce a model for forecasting conversational events that overcomes both these inherent challenges by processing comments, and their relations, as they happen (i.e., in an online fashion). Our main insight is that models with these properties already exist, albeit geared toward generation rather than prediction: recent work in context-aware dialog generation (or “chatbots”) has proposed sequential neural models that make effective use of the intra-conversational dynamics BIBREF22, BIBREF23, BIBREF24, while concomitantly being able to process the conversation as it develops (see BIBREF25 for a survey).
In order for these systems to perform well in the generative domain they need to be trained on massive amounts of (unlabeled) conversational data. The main difficulty in directly adapting these models to the supervised domain of conversational forecasting is the relative scarcity of labeled data: for most forecasting tasks, at most a few thousands labeled examples are available, insufficient for the notoriously data-hungry sequential neural models.
To overcome this difficulty, we propose to decouple the objective of learning a neural representation of conversational dynamics from the objective of predicting future events. The former can be pre-trained on large amounts of unsupervised data, similarly to how chatbots are trained. The latter can piggy-back on the resulting representation after fine-tuning it for classification using relatively small labeled data. While similar pre-train-then-fine-tune approaches have recently achieved state-of-the-art performance in a number of NLP tasks—including natural language inference, question answering, and commonsense reasoning (discussed in Section SECREF2)—to the best of our knowledge this is the first attempt at applying this paradigm to conversational forecasting.
To test the effectiveness of this new architecture in forecasting derailment of online conversations, we develop and distribute two new datasets. The first triples in size the highly curated `Conversations Gone Awry' dataset BIBREF9, where civil-starting Wikipedia Talk Page conversations are crowd-labeled according to whether they eventually lead to personal attacks; the second relies on in-the-wild moderation of the popular subreddit ChangeMyView, where the aim is to forecast whether a discussion will later be subject to moderator action due to “rude or hostile” behavior. In both datasets, our model outperforms existing fixed-window approaches, as well as simpler sequential baselines that cannot account for inter-comment relations. Furthermore, by virtue of its online processing of the conversation, our system can provide substantial prior notice of upcoming derailment, triggering on average 3 comments (or 3 hours) before an overtly toxic comment is posted.
To summarize, in this work we:
introduce the first model for forecasting conversational events that can capture the dynamics of a conversation as it develops;
build two diverse datasets (one entirely new, one extending prior work) for the task of forecasting derailment of online conversations;
compare the performance of our model against the current state-of-the-art, and evaluate its ability to provide early warning signs.
Our work is motivated by the goal of assisting human moderators of online communities by preemptively signaling at-risk conversations that might deserve their attention. However, we caution that any automated systems might encode or even amplify the biases existing in the training data BIBREF26, BIBREF27, BIBREF28, so a public-facing implementation would need to be exhaustively scrutinized for such biases BIBREF29.

Conclusions and Future Work
In this work, we introduced a model for forecasting conversational events that processes comments as they happen and takes the full conversational context into account to make an updated prediction at each step. This model fills a void in the existing literature on conversational forecasting, simultaneously addressing the dual challenges of capturing inter-comment dynamics and dealing with an unknown horizon. We find that our model achieves state-of-the-art performance on the task of forecasting derailment in two different datasets that we release publicly. We further show that the resulting system can provide substantial prior notice of derailment, opening up the potential for preemptive interventions by human moderators BIBREF65.
While we have focused specifically on the task of forecasting derailment, we view this work as a step towards a more general model for real-time forecasting of other types of emergent properties of conversations. Follow-up work could adapt the CRAFT architecture to address other forecasting tasks mentioned in Section SECREF2—including those for which the outcome is extraneous to the conversation. We expect different tasks to be informed by different types of inter-comment dynamics, and further architecture extensions could add additional supervised fine-tuning in order to direct it to focus on specific dynamics that might be relevant to the task (e.g., exchange of ideas between interlocutors or stonewalling).
With respect to forecasting derailment, there remain open questions regarding what human moderators actually desire from an early-warning system, which would affect the design of a practical system based on this work. For instance, how early does a warning need to be in order for moderators to find it useful? What is the optimal balance between precision, recall, and false positive rate at which such a system is truly improving moderator productivity rather than wasting their time through false positives? What are the ethical implications of such a system? Follow-up work could run a user study of a prototype system with actual moderators to address these questions.
A practical limitation of the current analysis is that it relies on balanced datasets, while derailment is a relatively rare event for which a more restrictive trigger threshold would be appropriate. While our analysis of the precision-recall curve suggests the system is robust across multiple thresholds ($AUPR=0.7$), additional work is needed to establish whether the recall tradeoff would be acceptable in practice.
Finally, one major limitation of the present work is that it assigns a single label to each conversation: does it derail or not? In reality, derailment need not spell the end of a conversation; it is possible that a conversation could get back on track, suffer a repeat occurrence of antisocial behavior, or any number of other trajectories. It would be exciting to consider finer-grained forecasting of conversational trajectories, accounting for the natural—and sometimes chaotic—ebb-and-flow of human interactions.
Acknowledgements. We thank Caleb Chiam, Liye Fu, Lillian Lee, Alexandru Niculescu-Mizil, Andrew Wang and Justine Zhang for insightful conversations (with unknown horizon), Aditya Jha for his great help with implementing and running the crowd-sourcing tasks, Thomas Davidson and Claire Liang for exploratory data annotation, as well as the anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments. This work is supported in part by the NSF CAREER award IIS-1750615 and by the NSF Grant SES-1741441.

Figure 2: Sketch of the CRAFT architecture.

Table 1: Comparison of the capabilities of each baseline and our CRAFT models (full and without the Context Encoder) with regards to capturing inter-comment (D)ynamics, processing conversations in an (O)nline fashion, and automatically (L)earning feature representations, as well as their performance in terms of (A)ccuracy, (P)recision, (R)ecall, False Positive Rate (FPR), and F1 score. Awry is the model previously proposed by Zhang et al. (2018a) for this task.

Question: What are two datasets model is applied to?
{"answer": [" `Conversations Gone Awry\u0027 dataset", "subreddit ChangeMyView"], "evidence": ["To test the effectiveness of this new architecture in forecasting derailment of online conversations, we develop and distribute two new datasets. The first triples in size the highly curated `Conversations Gone Awry\u0027 dataset BIBREF9, where civil-starting Wikipedia Talk Page conversations are crowd-labeled according to whether they eventually lead to personal attacks; the second relies on in-the-wild moderation of the popular subreddit ChangeMyView, where the aim is to forecast whether a discussion will later be subject to moderator action due to \u201crude or hostile\u201d behavior. In both datasets, our model outperforms existing fixed-window approaches, as well as simpler sequential baselines that cannot account for inter-comment relations. Furthermore, by virtue of its online processing of the conversation, our system can provide substantial prior notice of upcoming derailment, triggering on average 3 comments (or 3 hours) before an overtly toxic comment is posted."]}