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Atiku exclusive interview on Africa, China, Buhari economic policies, security, restructuring and Biafra
Atiku Abubakar Presidential Aspirant
The Atiku Campaign Organisation has published an exclusive interview where the People Democratic Party candidate spoke about issues bordering on Africa, China, Buhari economic policies, restructuring, education, farmer herders crises, security, anti-corruption policies, the oil and gas industry and the Biafra struggle.
How do you see Africa faring amid an international trade war?
Atiku Abubakar: It is certainly not a good moment for Africa. The West colonised Africa, set up all the institutions in Africa, and eventually granted independence to Africa. Now it has been withdrawing from Africa over the years. First, they started with establishment of the European Union (EU). The moment the EU was established, the British started withdrawing from Africa, the French started withdrawing. So they left a vacuum. Africa has never been a US destination. So Africa was left on its own, whether for good or bad I don't know. In one sense it is better for Africa to be independent. Of course, for the purposes of international cooperation, trade and investment Africa has to look elsewhere.
Are you happy that China is filling that vacuum?
Loans from China have [fewer] conditionalities [than] loans from the West. When you have less conditionality, there is the tendency that the money you borrow is likely to be misapplied, misused, misappropriated. And when the money borrowed is not invested in a sector that can make profit, then you are likely to default. With the West, they lend you money, and it has to be based on an investment schedule and there must be returns. In the case of China, they are just giving you money – "Okay go and build an airport," or "Go and build a railway station." Where are the feasibility studies? What is the return on investment? How long will it take you to repay the money?
You have called President Muhammadu Buhari's economic policy archaic. On what grounds?
It's not market friendly and because of that we have not been getting much foreign investment. If anything, in fact, we have witnessed a flip of foreign investment out of Nigeria. Many foreign companies have closed shop in this country simply because the wrong economic policies have been implemented.
You say you would let the naira exchange rate be set by the market. How would you deal with the resulting inflation?
I would prefer to float the naira because I believe that will bring about a more stable exchange rate. Therefore, foreign investors are more likely to return to Nigeria and invest as much as possible. We have to create more incentives for foreign investment and relax conditionalities, remove regulations as much as possible.
In an import-dependent economy, surely that will drive up inflation?
But what you forget, it has two side effects. There could be devaluation and there could be a lot of inflow of foreign currency into the country. The devaluation that is likely to result can be balanced with the relatively huge [sums of] foreign currency that will be coming into the country.
We had that situation prior to the departure of [former president] Goodluck Jonathan. At that time, we had a pile of foreign investment in the country, and there was stability of the naira. So people did not have to go to the central bank to look for foreign exchange because there was foreign exchange in the market and in the banks. So it could turn out to be a win-win situation.
You are calling for restructuring of the federation, which means the oil-producing states will get a bigger share of the revenue. How much?
That will depend on negotiations between them and other parts of Nigeria. But I know they can get more because in the First Republic the regions had 50/50. I don't mind giving even 100% […], but I would tax those states to maintain the federal government.
You are in favour of giving all the oil-producing states in this country total control over their resources?
For now, it's not advisable at this stage of our development. Even during the First Republic there was this derivation sharing between revenues and resources, or between the regions and the federal government. So I think we could have a middle course. It would be unfair to ask me for specifics; that will depend on negotiations.
There is an education crisis in Nigeria, with growing numbers of children outside school. How would you fix it?
There is no will on the part of the Nigerian government, at federal and state level, to see that the standard of education is improving. We introduced free primary in 2004. We omitted to provide penalties for state governments that did not meet [those demands]. If I had the opportunity again, I would introduce a penalty clause, to make it not only compulsory, but if you don't meet the target then you are penalised.
The numbers of children outside school are particularly high in the north. Would you impose special measures?
You make education compulsory – if you don't send your child to school you are punished for that – and you increase your educational budget to train more teachers, build more classrooms. I tried to do it as a vice-president because I realised how backward the north was. You know that we have an educational tax?
If you import goods in this country we charge you educational tax. We collect billions at the federal government and distribute to these states to enhance education, but they misuse and misappropriate all this money. So if you tell [these states] I will go and directly build the schools, they will sit up and do something about it.
On security, you would give state governments the power to run their own police forces? What would happen if some state governors were to abuse those powers?
I want to devolve policing as well to the states. They'll be free to run their own police forces. If they cannot, they can come together, two or three states to do it, depending on how they want [to do it].
We have the same thing. The federal government is misusing the police, is misusing the military. So if you are talking of abuse, every level of government abuses.
How would you tackle the clashes between herders and farmers, as well as banditry and cattle-rustling?
In each province in the north, we used to have a grazing reserve. During the season, the cattle are in the reserves. When it is off-season, when farmers would have cultivated all their crops, then the cattle move out to the areas where the farmers have cultivated, allowing the grass in the grazing reserves to grow. These grazing reserves have been abandoned over the years.
One way is to make sure that we give local leaders the power to resolve disputes between farmers and grazers.
What role could economics play in resolving the crisis?
I have decided to set up a factory to produce livestock feeds in each of the zones in the northern states. I have set up one in Yola, one will be completed here in Abuja this December and another one will be done in the north-west. There, you have all types of animal feeds. You can leave your cattle in one spot and buy enough livestock feed and feed your cattle.
You get better meat and more milk. If this business model gets you more income, wouldn't you go for it? There are cattle rustlers all over. Even in my own herd. I have more than 1,000 heads of cattle, and cattle rustlers came and took over 200 of them and drove away into Cameroon.
Although the Boko Haram militias no longer control swathes of territory, they still launch terror attacks. How would you counter them?
I happen to know how Boko Haram came into being. They were offshoots of political thuggery. Politicians used those boys in Boko Haram to win elections and then abandoned them and then there were no jobs for them. It was the same thing with the Niger Delta. In 1998, I saw it myself and I warned people.
It's going to be a multifaceted approach. It will involve negotiations. It will involve military action.
Reform of the oil and gas industry has stalled. You have been advocating the wholesale privatisation of the state oil company. Wouldn't that make things even worse?
Without a stable regulatory framework, the oil and gas companies will find it difficult to invest more in Nigeria. At the time, we pushed for the passage of the new law. We expected that Nigeria would be able to export up to about 4m barrels per day, but here we are still at less than 2m per day.
You're now saying you would sell the entire state oil company? Or that the government should keep about 10%?
Yes, I would want to go ahead, there is no doubt about that. [The government should have] a very minor shareholding. Nigeria is in dire need of funds to develop its infrastructure and other sectors of the economy.
Your own company, Intels, which provides logistics to the energy industry, is under pressure. Is it – or are you – being targeted politically?
Intels has always suffered because I have been involved in the fight for democracy since the 1980s, when the military was in power. [Governments] will pounce on Intels – refuse me one licence or the other, close me down. Even the government that I served as a democratically elected vice-president, the president closed Intels for six months when he had a disagreement with me. […] He never found a fault with it and eventually opened it again.
The last three years have been the worst in the history of Intels because our turnover dropped by 70%. Oil companies and gas companies are no longer investing in that sector because of the absence of laws that can guarantee their investment.
Aliko Dangote was able to build his cement production empire after your government banned imports. Would you impose more such bans?
I am one of the people who promoted Aliko Dangote, but I'm never for monopoly. Import bans to some extent, but certainly not for a monopoly.
As long as [a ban] is going to develop industries, which means creating jobs, as long as it is going to develop our infrastructure. I'm prepared to privatise the development of infrastructure in the country. That will create millions and millions of jobs.
You criticise the government's anti-corruption strategy. What would you do differently?
You can't deploy only punitive measures to fight corruption. One way of trying to reduce corruption to the barest minimum is also to introduce e-governance. If you are applying for a permit, if you are applying for a passport, why not apply online? Why can't we also employ preventive measures to stop corruption?
What about the grand corruption? Billions of dollars of oil money have been taken from this country.
If we have evidence against you we arrest you and prosecute you, and take away the money.
Are you concerned about the fate of Nnamdi Kanu, the pro-Biafra activist?
I don't want to be individualistic on this issue. I reject any illegal detention, any detention that is not based on law and order.
What about former national security adviser Sambo Dasuki?
Dasuki is being detained illegally. It is only a court that will say whether he is guilty or not.
Would you favour a referendum for the people of the south-east, offering them the chance to leave the federation?
When we get there. We are going to have a conference to discuss reconstruction. Then we will see. I don't think there is any part of this country that wants to leave this country. All what they want is fairness, equity and justice.
Are there any situations where where rule of law could be waved aside for national security?
No. The rule of law itself is a guarantor of national security.
Source: Atiku Campaign Organisation
Interviews, News+, PoliticsOmogoAtiku Abubakar, Nigeria, People Democratic Party0 comments
Buhari and Osibanjo unveil Next Level 2019 campaign document
Revealed: "Next Level" logo belongs to Winthrop University professor, used "without permission" by APC


The business press slams the lifestyles of Indigenous leaders … and lavishes sycophantic praise on the obscenely super-rich.
Is a united and effective climate movement possible?
Science says that climate change 'tipping points' are coming fast. With pessimism of the intellect growing ever more intense, how can we avoid despair and unite in an effective movement based on optimism of the will?
Environmental determinism: Does climate control our destiny?
The view that climate change caused the collapse of past civilizations is ideology, not science. Applied to the present, it can undermine movements against the real enemies of nature and humanity.
Fighting for the measures necessary to avert catastrophic climate change needs to be at the centre of socialist thinking and action.
End rural slavery in South Africa!
La Via Campesina: South African commercial farming is the most powerful on the continent; it flourishes at the expense of the oppression and exploitation of agricultural workers.
The editors of the annual journal Alternate Routes are seeking papers on the environment and prospects for social change, for the 2014 issue.
What if First Nations stopped subsidizing Canada?
The claim that First Nations live off government subsidies is a racist myth. In reality, Indigenous people have been massively subsidizing Canada for a very long time.
Tar Sands: Is Canada a 'resource colony'?
Some Canadian environmentalists are blaming this ecological nightmare on foreign investors. Their analysis is both mistaken and dangerous: the tar sands are firmly in Canadian hands, and those hands are very dirty.


You are here: Home / Katharine Hepburn / Katharine Hepburn: Stylish, Sophisticated, Smart… What's Not to Love?
Katharine Hepburn: Stylish, Sophisticated, Smart… What's Not to Love?
Katharine HepburnKatharine Hepburn was recognized by MSN Lifestyle as the biggest influence on women's fashion in the '30s and '40s. It's a very impressive honor and couldn't be more deserved.
Hepburn's fashion legacy was one of breaking rules, pushing the boundaries and finding your own signature style – even if it seems a little radical. She's remembered as the first woman in Hollywood to wear pants…which, at the time, was about as radical as it gets.
I often pay Katharine Hepburn one of the greatest compliments I have to bestow, which is this: When it comes to reading about the stars from the Golden Age of Hollywood (something I do and have done for over 20 years…. and we're talking daily here), you unfortunately find yourself losing a little respect for aspects of their lives, choices, and personalities. They were/are, after all, humans… and we're frail at best.
However, Katharine Hepburn (along with a few others, such as Audrey Hepburn, Andy Griffith, Jimmy Stewart..) is a very rare human, indeed. You find yourself liking and respecting her more with each word you read about her. Whether they're her own eloquent words or words being said about her, you realize just how intelligent, thoughtful, and woefully ahead of her time this talented and beautiful lady was.
There was a boldness and a confidence about her that simply set her apart from the rest. If you've never read up on Katharine Hepburn, I whole-heartedly recommend it. She will blow you away.
One of my favorite Old Hollywood biographies happens to be about this incredible woman. It's I Know Where I'm Going by Charlotte Chandler and every single page is remarkable.


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Home > Regulatory Agencies > Post-Election Outlook for Financial Regulatory Agencies: The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau
Post-Election Outlook for Financial Regulatory Agencies: The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau
By Eric Mogilnicki, David Stein and Sam Adriance on November 28, 2016 Posted in Consumer, Regulatory Agencies, Rulemakings
The transition to a new administration with the election of Republican Donald J. Trump as President, along with continued Republican control of the Senate and House of Representatives, promises to bring substantial change to each of the federal financial regulatory agencies. Changes in leadership at those agencies will likely result in substantial changes in policy regarding regulations, compliance, enforcement, and transactions. While these transitions will take place over different time frames depending on the agency, there is unique uncertainty regarding how quickly the transition will take place at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau ("CFPB" or "Bureau") and what that transition will entail.
The uncertain situation at the CFPB results, in part, from the fact that the Bureau is a new agency that has not previously experienced a change in administration. Moreover, the Bureau has been a controversial agency from its inception and it currently faces substantial questions about the constitutionality of its single-Director structure, threats of Congressional disapproval of its recent and planned regulations, and legislation designed to change its structure and funding.
CFPB Structure and the Effects of the PHH Decision
The CFPB is led by a single Director who is appointed by the President, with the advice and consent of the Senate, to a five-year term. Under the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act ("Dodd-Frank Act"), the President may remove the Director only for cause ‒ that is, for "inefficiency, neglect of duty, or malfeasance in office." See 12 U.S.C. § 5491(c)(3).
However, as explained in a previous post, a three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit recently held that the CFPB's single-Director structure, with termination only for cause, is unconstitutional under Article II of the U.S. Constitution. See PHH Corp. v. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, No. 15-1177 (D.C. Cir., Oct. 11, 2016) ("PHH"). To remedy that flaw, the court severed the "for-cause" removal provision, giving the President the power to remove the Director at will. On November 18, 2016, the CFPB petitioned the full D.C. Circuit to rehear the case en banc. Respondent Consumer Financial Protection Bureau's Petition for Rehearing En Banc, No. 15-177 (D.C. Cir., Nov. 18, 2016) (Doc. #1646917). There is no definitive timetable for the Court's decision on whether to rehear the case, or on how quickly it would resolve the case if rehearing took place. Absent rehearing, the Bureau could file a petition for certiorari to the Supreme Court.
The CFPB is currently led by Director Richard Cordray, whose term is set to expire in July 2018. The outcome of the PHH appeal may determine whether Director Cordray is allowed to serve out his term ─ unless the President seeks to fire him "for cause." In addition, there is speculation that Director Cordray may seek to run for Governor of Ohio in 2018, which may lead him to resign before the end of his term. Any replacement for Director Cordray would have to be nominated by the President and confirmed by the Senate. In the case of a vacancy, the Deputy Director of the CFPB would serve as acting Director pending confirmation of a new Director. 12 U.S.C. § 5491(b)(5).
Status of Recent Rulemakings and the Congressional Review Act
In 2016, the CFPB finalized a number of rules, including a rule regulating prepaid cards, and issued proposals on two highly controversial rules involving a payday, high-cost installment, and vehicle title lending and mandatory arbitration clauses. These rules are now at risk of Congressional action to prevent them from going into effect.
Under the Congressional Review Act (the "CRA"), 5 U.S.C. § 801 et seq, Congress may (in certain circumstances) invalidate a new agency rule before it takes effect. Upon finalizing a rule, the agency must submit a report to each house of Congress and the Comptroller General including, among other things, a copy of the rule. Congress then has 60 legislative days to pass a joint resolution disapproving of the rule. Under the CRA, a resolution of disapproval is not subject to a filibuster in the Senate so long as 30 senators sign and file a petition of disapproval. If the rule is disapproved, and the President does not veto the resolution of disapproval, the rule does not take effect and cannot be resubmitted in substantially the same form.
The Congressional Research Service has calculated that any final rule submitted to Congress after May 30, 2016 is subject to disapproval under the CRA. (This exact date may change depending on the legislative schedules the House and Senate set for the remainder of the year.) The prepaid card rule, which was submitted in October, a rule amending the existing mortgage servicing regulations, and all future CFPB rules would be subject to disapproval by the new Congress. While it is unclear whether, or to what extent, Congressional Republicans will target CFPB rules for disapproval, the balance of power on CFPB rules has shifted for the foreseeable future.
President-elect Trump's transition website promises his team will work "to dismantle the Dodd-Frank Act and replace it with new policies to encourage economic growth and job creation." While the incoming Administration has not endorsed any particular legislative proposal, House Financial Services Committee Chair Jeb Hensarling's Financial CHOICE Act is a possible starting point for legislative changes in the new Administration.
The CHOICE Act calls for the following changes to the CFPB:
Change the single director structure to a five-person commission akin to the FTC;
Make CFPB funding subject to the appropriations process;
Subject all CFPB rulemakings to cost-benefit analysis; and
Eliminate "abusive" from the Bureau's "unfair, deceptive, or abusive acts or practices" ("UDAAP") authority.
Congressional Democrats would strongly oppose many, if not all, of these changes, and it remains to be seen how committed the new Administration will be to reforming the CFPB.
Enforcement and Supervision
In addition to its rulemaking powers, the CFPB also enforces the consumer protection laws and supervises financial services companies within its jurisdiction.
As long as Director Cordray remains in office, we would not expect to see significant changes to the Bureau's enforcement or supervisory activities. However, when the new Administration appoints a Director, or if Congress passes legislation transforming the CFPB into a multi-member board, the CFPB may pursue fewer precedent-setting enforcement actions, emphasize supervision over enforcement for supervised entities, and focus enforcement efforts on punishing clear-cut cases of bad actors engaging in fraud, deception, and similar wrongdoing.
Tags: Agency leadership, CFPB, Cordray, CRA, Dodd-Frank Act, Election, Financial Choice Act, Hensarling, PHH, Regulatory policy

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Bioluminescence imaging allows real-time monitoring of cancer spreading through the body
(Nanowerk News) Scientists from A*STAR in Singapore and the USA have developed a fast bioluminescence imaging technique that may greatly assist in the search for drugs that target mobile—or metastatic—cancer cells ("A screening platform for glioma growth and invasion using bioluminescence imaging Laboratory investigation").
Chemotherapy treatments for this type of cancer using 'anti-migratory' drugs are important because some of the most mobile cells that cause metastasis can resist conventional cancer drugs. This is a problem because patients tend to be at greater risk of developing metastases over the extended survival periods associated with modern cancer therapies. Using zebrafish as a model organism, researchers could spot as few as eight cells undergoing metastasis from glioblastoma multiforme (GBM)—the most common and aggressive type of brain tumor.
Embryos of Zebrafish could provide important insights into the spread of cancer throughout the body.
The team, including Beng-Ti Ang from A*STAR's Singapore Institute for Clinical Sciences and co-workers at the University of Singapore and the Methodist Hospital, Cornell University, USA, used a method called gene transfection to develop GBM cells that express a gene from fireflies, causing them to emit light in a process known as bioluminescence. They assessed the 'invasiveness' of the cells by measuring how quickly they moved through a three-dimensional matrix, and found that the most invasive cells express a gene that makes them more mobile. The same gene has also been correlated previously with reduced patient survival.
The researchers then injected the GBM cells into zebrafish embryos, and observed tumors in the embryos a few days later. By placing the embryos under a charge-coupled device camera, they were able to watch the bioluminescent tumor cells growing and moving around the body, invading other organs.
"The advantages of the zebrafish are that it is transparent under microscopy imaging, has a fast development cycle (major features are seen within 24 hours after birth), and it is a vertebrate animal," explains Stephen Wong of the Methodist Hospital. Furthermore, the zebrafish tumors have genomes and development processes very similar to human cancers.
This new bioluminescence screening platform represents a unique real-time method for observing small numbers of cancer cells in a live animal. It is cheaper, easier and far more sensitive than existing imaging methods such as positron emission or computed tomography scanning, or magnetic resonance or fluorescent imaging. Furthermore, the discovery of a genetic subset of highly invasive GBM cells could help greatly in the development of drugs that target tumor-initiating cells.
The team plans to use the platform to screen anti-migration and invasion candidate compounds for GBM treatment and extend the platform for drug screening in other invasive tumors and for drug combination studies.
Source: Reprinted with permission from A*STAR


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Juan Manuel Cortés (born November 20, 1980 in Quilmes (Buenos Aires), Argentina) is an Argentine footballer currently playing for Boca Río Gallegos in Torneo Argentino B.

Teams
  Belgrano de Córdoba 2000-2002
  Racing de Córdoba 2002-2005
  San Martín de Tucumán 2005-2006
  Santamarina de Tandil 2006-2007
  Tiro Federal 2007-2008
  Unión de Sunchales 2008-2009
  Coquimbo Unido 2009
  9 de Julio 2010
  Central Norte 2010
  Batavia Union 2011-2012
  Boca Río Gallegos 2012

References
 Profile at BDFA
 Profile at Futbol XXI

1980 births
Living people
Argentine footballers
Argentine expatriate footballers
San Martín de Tucumán footballers
Club Atlético Belgrano footballers
Racing de Córdoba footballers
Tiro Federal footballers
Coquimbo Unido footballers
Primera B de Chile players
Expatriate footballers in Chile
Expatriate footballers in Indonesia
Association footballers not categorized by position
People from Quilmes
Sportspeople from Buenos Aires Province

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Kidney Case Conference: How I Treat
Screening for Intracranial Aneurysms in Patients with Autosomal Dominant Polycystic Kidney Disease
Adrien Flahault and Dominique Joly
CJASN August 2019, 14 (8) 1242-1244; DOI: https://doi.org/10.2215/CJN.02100219
Adrien Flahault
Service de Néphrologie, Faculté de Médecine, Hôpital Necker-Enfants Malades, Université Paris-Descartes, Assistance Publique – Hôpitaux de Paris, Paris, France
Dominique Joly
cerebral aneurysm
Patient Presentation
A 40-year-old patient asks for a second opinion on the management of her autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD). Her first cousin, who also has ADPKD, had a subarachnoid hemorrhage a few months earlier, leading her previous nephrologist to request a cerebral magnetic resonance angiography (MRA) that reveals a 3 mm aneurysm of the left anterior cerebral artery. Your colleague had previously discouraged the patient to perform screening in the absence of known familial history.
Prevalence of Intracranial Aneurysms, Risk of Rupture, and Consequences
The prevalence of intracranial aneurysm has been estimated between 9% and 12% of patients with ADPKD (1–3). In comparison, intracranial aneurysm prevalence in the general population is between 2% and 3%. The only identified risk factors for intracranial aneurysm in ADPKD are a personal or a family history of unruptured or ruptured intracranial aneurysm. In patients with a familial risk of intracranial aneurysm, the prevalence of intracranial aneurysm has been reported to be around 21%–22%, compared with 6%–8% in the absence of such family history (1,2).
The rupture of an intracranial aneurysm is the most serious complication of ADPKD, with a mortality rate of 10%–20% and a morbidity rate of 50%, related to the neurologic sequelae of the subarachnoid hemorrhage.
The rupture rate has rarely been reported in the literature. In our prospective experience, the global annual intracranial aneurysm rupture rate was 1.9 (95% confidence interval, 0.84–4.5) per 1000 patient-years, much higher than the risk of subarachnoid hemorrhage in the general population (0.06–0.10 per 1000 person-years), but also higher than previously reported in a large, retrospective study of patients with ADPKD (0.5 per 1000 patient-years) conducted by the Mayo Clinic between 1945 and 1984 (4).
Is there a Specific Natural History of Intracranial Aneurysms in ADPKD?
There is an abundance of literature on natural history detected in the general population, on the basis of large, prospective series. However, within these series the percentage of patients with ADPKD was very low. Identifying ADPKD intracranial aneurysms from what is known about intracranial aneurysms in the general population is possibly misleading. Indeed, the natural history of intracranial aneurysms in ADPKD is singular in several ways: (1) aneurysm rupture occurs at an earlier median age than in the general population (41 versus 51 years of age); (2) small aneurysms can rupture (20% of ruptured intracranial aneurysms measured <5 mm and 33% between 5 and 9 mm, whereas intracranial aneurysm rupture is rare in the general population for aneurysms <7 mm); and (3) the majority of the reported ruptures concerned the anterior brain territory.The results from our study were consistent with previous reports in the literature, including results from a recent Finnish study that specifically focused on patients with ADPKD (5).
Targeted Screening versus Universal Screening
Divergent opinions on intracranial aneurysm screening strategy have been published in the literature. A survey of practices conducted among French-speaking nephrologists in Europe shows that about one third of participants were in favor of universal screening for intracranial aneurysms in patients with ADPKD, whereas two thirds were in favor of targeted screening (6).
In 2014, a Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) expert panel recommended targeted intracranial aneurysm screening only in cases of family history of intracranial aneurysm or subarachnoid hemorrhage, previous intracranial aneurysm rupture, high-risk professions (e.g., airline pilots), and patient anxiety despite adequate information (7).
Collecting information about the possible presence of aneurysm in polycystic relatives is complex. What about a family case of sudden death or a case of stroke without further details? Should we collect this information at each consultation, and should we be notified when there is new familial information? What about small or poorly informative families? What about patients without other known cases of polycystic disease?
Despite these uncertainties, restricting screening to "at-risk" families results in the detection of intracranial aneurysms in a greater proportion of cases because, as mentioned above, there is indisputable family aggregation of intracranial aneurysms.
However, no study has ever shown that the rate of rupture of a given aneurysm is different depending on whether one belongs to an at-risk family. Indeed, it has been consistently reported in the literature that approximately 80% of intracranial aneurysm rupture events in patients with ADPDK occurred in the absence of known family history of aneurysm (3,5,8).
Decisions regarding screening policy should consider the costs associated with intracranial aneurysm screening and preventive treatments, as well as the iatrogenic risks associated with them, and compare them with the cost reduction and clinical benefits obtained by avoiding the occurrence of intracranial aneurism rupture. To do so, we performed a cost–utility analysis, using a Markov model with probabilistic sensitivity analyses and recent medical data, showing that universal screening provides a gain of 1.29 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) compared with no screening and 0.68 QALYs compared with targeted screening. For a willingness to pay of €50,000/QALY, universal screening was more effective than targeted screening in 89% of simulations (3).
On the basis of the above evidence, we recently decided to change our policy and now propose intracranial aneurysm screening to all patients with ADPKD. Universal screening for intracranial aneurysm in ADPKD remains debated. The KDIGO conference, published before our cost–utility analysis, did not recommend universal screening because it identifies mostly small aneurysms said to be of a low rupture risk, and because of the risks associated with aneurysm repair. We acknowledge that the cost–utility analysis we performed was on the basis of the results obtained from French patients referred to our tertiary referral center, and that additional cost–utility analyses should be performed in other clinical settings to strengthen and generalize our findings. It must be noted that cost estimates, neuroradiological expertise, and preventive treatment complication rates may vary between countries. Interestingly, a recent cost–utility analysis performed in the United States also showed that universal screening for aneurysms in ADPKD was cost-effective compared with no screening (targeted screening strategy was not studied in this analysis) (9).
What to Say to Patients?
It is possible to tell patients, without going into all the numerical details mentioned above, that there is a slightly higher incidence of cerebral aneurysm in ADPKD than in the general population, their rupture is a very rare event, and if an MRA screening is decided, there are two possible results: (1) most likely, no vascular abnormality is found, or (2) in rarer cases, an aneurysm has been detected, and it will be decided whether it should be simply monitored radiologically or treated preventively, most likely by radiologic intervention.
Some nephrologists also stress the need for urgent medical evaluation in case of signs suggestive of intracranial aneurysm rupture (i.e., the sudden occurrence of intense, nonmigraine headache) (6).
Intracranial Aneurysm Screening Modalities
Noninvasive techniques (computed tomography angiography requiring iodinated contrast injection, and 3T time-of-flight MRA without gadolinium-based contrast agent injection) have similar sensitivity and specificity for the detection of small (2–3 mm) intracranial aneurysms (7). The absence of contrast injection justifies the use of MRA instead of computed tomography angiography in this population of patients with compromised kidney function. Screening should be performed in an experienced neuroradiology center. The prescription should mention the context of ADPKD and require exploration of all cerebral arteries, from the occipital foramen to the corpus callosum.
A retrospective study (8) showed that 10% of aneurysm ruptures occurred before 21 years of age in ADPKD, and the youngest patient with aneurysm rupture in this study was 15 years old. The cost-efficiency of universal screening was maximal at 20 years, decreases with age, and was unproven after 60 years. MRA screening should be performed as early as possible once the diagnosis of ADPKD is made, ideally around 20 years of age. Because de novo aneurysms may develop in adults, MRA should be repeated every 5–10 years up to 60 years of age, to maintain screening efficiency (3,9).
Treatment of Unruptured Intracranial Aneurysms
The management of unruptured intracranial aneurysms should be discussed by a multidisciplinary team (neurologist, neuroradiologist, neurosurgeon) in an expert center. Some nonspecific measures are recommended to all patients to decrease the risk of intracranial aneurysm growth and rupture: smoking cessation, reduced alcohol intake, and optimal BP control. Aneurysms considered at low risk of rupture should be reassessed by serial imaging, with initial 6-month intervals and further spacing in case of stability. Aneurysms at high risk of rupture will benefit from endovascular or neurosurgical treatment.
Endovascular techniques (coil embolization of the aneurysm, sometimes with additional stent placement) have gradually improved over years. Their indications have extended whereas those of classic neurosurgery have progressively decreased. Neurosurgery is still recommended for very large aneurysms and those for which embolization is impossible. The complication rate of the preventive procedures has been specifically evaluated in patients with ADPKD. A recent registry study found a higher rate of iatrogenic events for both neurosurgical treatment (11.8% versus 6.4%) and endovascular treatment (9.4% versus 3.0%) in polycystic patients, although for patients with ADPKD, no procedure-associated mortality was detected in this study, and both hospital length-of-stay and hospital costs were lower in patients with ADPKD (10). These mitigated results of iatrogenic morbidity were taken into account in our cost-effectiveness analysis, which nonetheless indicates that widespread detection of aneurysms may reduce morbidity and mortality related to intracranial aneurysm rupture in patients with ADPKD (3).
Dr. Joly reports personal fees and nonfinancial support from Otsuka, and nonfinancial support from IPSEN. Dr. Flahault has nothing to disclose.
Published online ahead of print. Publication date available at www.cjasn.org.
Copyright © 2019 by the American Society of Nephrology
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: Extended follow-up of unruptured intracranial aneurysms detected by presymptomatic screening in patients with autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease. Clin J Am Soc Nephrol 6: 1274–1285, 2011
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: Screening for intracranial aneurysm in 355 patients with autosomal-dominant polycystic kidney disease. Stroke 42: 204–206, 2011
Flahault A,
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: Screening for intracranial aneurysms in autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease is cost-effective. Kidney Int 93: 716–726, 2018
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: Saccular intracranial aneurysms in autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease. J Am Soc Nephrol 3: 88–95, 1992
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: Polycystic kidney disease among 4,436 intracranial aneurysm patients from a defined population. Neurology 89: 1852–1859, 2017
: Screening for unruptured intracranial aneurysms in autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease: A survey of 420 nephrologists. PLoS One 11: e0153176, 2016
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; Conference Participants: Autosomal-dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD): Executive summary from a Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) Controversies Conference. Kidney Int 88: 17–27, 2015
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Adrien Flahault, Dominique Joly
CJASN Aug 2019, 14 (8) 1242-1244; DOI: 10.2215/CJN.02100219
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The worried wife, the cheating bisexual husband, the partying gay friends and the college student wearing the cheating husband's wedding band: A longtime fan of serials, like daytime dramas, Jake Biondi created this cast of characters for Boystown.
"I've been a writer for most of my life—as in professional writing and creative writing and things like that," said Biondi. "I just sat down one day and thought it would be interesting to, using some of my friends as a basis for some of the characters, put some words down and see what I can do."
Biondi first created a Facebook page for the series to gauge potential public interest, and upon garnering "likes" based on the description alone, he began publishing chapters of Boystown.
"At first I was going to try to do one episode per month, but people have been writing back to me saying, 'I want to know what's going to happen, so speed it up,'" said Biondi, releasing five chapters in two months.
Set in Chicago's gay neighborhood of Boystown in Lakeview, the characters span multiple decades. The entire series is relationship based, chronicling the intermingling of multiple gay male couples, a straight couple and a few single people.
Taking after Charles Dickens—whose novels were originally published serially in magazines—Biondi releases Boystown chapter by chapter, so as to titillate readers and allow for augmentations to the story.
"It's a continuing story, modeled after a TV show or Dickens novel, so I try to end each chapter with some sort of cliffhanger," said Biondi.
The series is available free online, allowing people to not only read Boystown, but respond in real time and communicate with the author.
"Based off some of the comments I've gotten from people who have read [Boystown], they've ended up dictating some of the twists and turns of the story," said Biondi. "I have a general story arc for each couple sort of in mind about where I want them to go, but based off feedback I've been getting from people who are reading it, I've changed things a bit."
"People will say things like, 'This couple needs to stay together. Don't mess with them anymore,'" said Biondi. "There's a few regulars who are always commenting, so that's been fun … that there's people waiting to see what's going to happen next."
The outpour of response has been overwhelmingly positive.
"Wow! The twists and turns are great. I am completely intrigued with this story," wrote a Boystown fan named Cameron. "I have ideas as to where it may be going, but will wait and see how psychic I really am."
"I have been reading the story since the first chapter was posted online," wrote Boystown fan Lisa. "The first chapter left me with some anxiety regarding one of the characters and this anxiety has carried me through all four chapters, with my trepidation focusing on a different character throughout each chapter."
Biondi attributed the readership to a lack of gay characters in media and the power of a compelling narrative.
"I think gay readers in general are sort of hungry for gay characters and stories where they can recognize themselves or their friends in it. Most of us have been raised on stories that are heterosexually based, in terms of characters," said Biondi.
Read Boystown at GayAuthors.org , bookworld.editme.com and JustUsBoys.com .


text:
@interface PasswordStrengthIndicatorView()
@property(nonatomic) UIView *indicatorView;
- (void)addIndicatorView;
- (void)animateIndicatorViewToStatus:(PasswordStrengthIndicatorViewStatus)status;
- (CGFloat)multiplierForStatus:(PasswordStrengthIndicatorViewStatus)status;
- (UIColor *)colorForStatus:(PasswordStrengthIndicatorViewStatus)status;
@end

@implementation PasswordStrengthIndicatorView

- (id)initWithFrame:(CGRect)frame
{
    self = [super initWithFrame:frame];
    if (self) {
        self.backgroundColor = [UIColor colorWithWhite:0 alpha:0.05];
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        self.layer.cornerRadius = 2.f;
        [self addIndicatorView];
    }
    return self;
}

#pragma mark - Property Setters

- (void)setStatus:(PasswordStrengthIndicatorViewStatus)status
{
    if (status == _status) {
        return;
    }
    _status = status;
    [self animateIndicatorViewToStatus:status];
}

#pragma mark - Private Instance methods

- (void)animateIndicatorViewToStatus:(PasswordStrengthIndicatorViewStatus)status
{
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        if (constraint.firstAttribute == NSLayoutAttributeWidth) {
            *stop = YES;
            [self removeConstraint:constraint];
        }
    }];

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                                                     attribute:NSLayoutAttributeWidth
                                                     relatedBy:NSLayoutRelationEqual
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                                                      constant:0]];

    [UIView animateWithDuration:0.3 delay:0 usingSpringWithDamping:0.7 initialSpringVelocity:0.7 options:0 animations:^{
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        self.indicatorView.backgroundColor = [self colorForStatus:status];
    } completion:NULL];
}

- (CGFloat)multiplierForStatus:(PasswordStrengthIndicatorViewStatus)status
{
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        case PasswordStrengthIndicatorViewStatusFair:
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            return 0.f;
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- (UIColor *)colorForStatus:(PasswordStrengthIndicatorViewStatus)status
{
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        case PasswordStrengthIndicatorViewStatusFair:
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        case PasswordStrengthIndicatorViewStatusStrong:
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            return [UIColor whiteColor];
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    [self addConstraint:[NSLayoutConstraint constraintWithItem:self.indicatorView
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redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaGithub


text:
A Half Dozen More Things I've Learned from Bill Gurley about Investing
October 14, 2016 ∞
I started my friendship with Bill Gurley in the mid-1990s soon after Bill Gates forwarded me a copy of Above the Crowd. I immediately signed up to receive it (by fax!). I then found a way to for us to start talking by phone and the Internet. Gurley was a sell-side analyst living in New York at that time. We kept talking when he moved to Silicon Valley, including the time he spent at Hummer Winblad Venture Partners and then on to Benchmark Capital. As fate would have it, I was sent by Craig McCaw to spend time with Benchmark Capital not soon after Gurley arrived as a partner. It was the late 1990s, the Internet bubble was in full swing and mobile was thought to be "the next big thing" in Silicon Valley. The time I spent co-investing with Benchmark for Eagle River was as much fun as I have ever had in my career. I learned as much from the Benchmark partners during that time as I have from anyone ever. Learning from Gurley, Bruce Dunlevie, Andy Rachleff, Kevin Harvey, Bob Kagle, Steve Spurlock and David Beirne was a dream come true. Unfortunately, the Internet bubble would eventually pop and that would put everyone into firefighting mode for a few years. But I have maintained my friendship with Benchmark over the years and have continued to learn from them. For example, Gurley was the person who pushed me to start using Twitter and from that came my 25IQ blog (my effort to pass along a little of what I have learned before I am dead).
When I wrote my first blog post on Gurley for 25IQ I was limiting myself to 1,000 words per post. I am now up to as much as 4,000 words on some posts since people seem to be actually reading them. So I feel like I owe Gurley and some other people who I wrote about early in this 25IQ series an addendum. As part of my effort to make amends, set out below are a few quotes from a fantastic recent ReCode interview of Gurley by Kara Swisher and my usual commentary. In the notes that are always at the bottom of each post I have assembled a collection of other videos of Gurley, including a particularly insightful interview by Om Malik:
"I think everybody, to a certain extent, has to play the game on the field. I like to use the example of Hortonworks and Cloudera. So we're in this company HortonWorks, it's a Hadoop company. Cloudera raises $950 million from Intel. What do you do? You could sit around and say, 'We're going to get to profitability,' but you're not going to matter. You might as well lock the door and leave the building. So you're forced into a game of capital warfare that you may have not been ready to play. And so I don't know that any one person is responsible. Silicon Valley and venture capital have always been cyclical. And so there's something about human nature that causes us to be increasingly risk-seeking until someone comes along and really punishes everybody." "I've got an unwritten blog post about unit economics. One of the things that Silicon Valley does when it gets risk-seeking, which it did in '99 and now, is they invest in businesses with lower and lower gross margins. And that's riskier. And a lot of times those involve consumer products. And then what they do is they start selling them heavily discounted. And there's this old saying about selling dollars for 85 cents. But there's a truism to it. You can create infinite revenue if you sell dollars for 85 cents. And if you give consumers more value than you charge them for, they will love you. And I remind entrepreneurs all the time that Webvan had the highest NPS scores of any company I've ever known. It wasn't that the consumer proposition didn't work, it was that the economics didn't work. They weren't charging enough for the service level." "When bubbles come along, almost anyone can raise money. And so it creates excessive competition, you get companies that are misbehaving." Are there any exceptions to the rule that every business needs a moat to generate a sustainable profit? No. However, this is a trick question since it is the existence of a return on investment that is significantly above a firm's opportunity cost of capital over a number of years that is the test of a moat's existence in the first place. In other words, the test of whether a moat exists is fundamentally mathematical (i.e., quantitative). But what causes a moat to exist is mostly qualitative since a nest of complex adaptive systems is involved in any business and the economy in which it operates. The successful creation of a new moat is emergent – you know it when you see it. Moats are created through the interaction of a number of phenomena that I have written about many times on 25IQ series and in my book on Charlie Munger. Because moats are emergent it seems rather obvious how they were created after the fact, but the reality is they are hard to predict before the fact (which explains why venture capital firms invest in a portfolio of businesses hoping for one to three grand slam financial home runs per fund).
In order to moderate the risks associated with this phenomenon of startups and other businesses selling dollars for 85 cents Gurley has been playing the role of an industry leader when he says things like he did above. He has been pushing against the wind to try to benefit not only his own portfolio of businesses, but the industry as a whole. People get easily confused about what Gurley is saying because they tend to be almost totally focused on valuation. Valuation is easy to understand. The general public and many mercenary entrepreneurs like to read and dream about wealth. Wealth sells. But the valuation of a business is a very different issue than the issues that can arise due to risk, uncertainty and ignorance in an industry, value chain or business. In short, there is far too much talking and writing about valuation (especially about whether some company is a unicorn) and far too little focus on the set of issues created by risk, uncertainty and ignorance. In other words, the press likes to say Gurley believes valuations are too high, when he is actually saying that risk, uncertainty and ignorance are too high. Valuation ≠ Risk. Valuation can be a source of risk, but it is not the same thing as risk.
Since Gurley is an athlete and a sports fan he uses sports analogies like "play the game on the field." Another of these analogies is "muscle memory." He said in the Kara Swisher's Recode interview:
[Gurley] "People discount risk slowly. Like they forget about pain and they forget about layoffs and they forget about that this is supposed to be hard, you need to profitable. And the younger generation, they're taught in very short time windows. So most of the entrepreneurs today weren't around in '99.
[Kara] So they've forgotten.
[Gurley]They have no muscle memory of it whatsoever."
It is hard to exaggerate what a shock it was when the Internet bubble popped. The business environment moved from a fund raising climate where you could easily raise billions of dollars for a telecom firm or hundreds of millions for a startup in days to one where you could not raise five cents over any period. Any rational founder should have given thought about what they would do if there was no more cash coming in from investors. Prior to the end of the Internet bubble some founders did and some founder didn't, and that was a life or death decision for their business. Some founders just got lucky since they had recently done a big financing round (what looked like skill was actually luck). People like Mitch Kapor and Josh Kopelman are in 2016 talking about a Watney rule: "We need to act we're like Mark Watney in the Martian. We can't assume we will get a shipment of new potatoes to save us." The Watney Rule is intended as insurance, not as an operating plan while money is available as current costs. Fred Wilson thoughtfully argues that times when liquidity is tight can be cathartic:
"As these expansion stage companies struggle to raise capital, they are forced into a cathartic (and at times painful) process of self-reflection. What is their sales process? Is it efficient? What is their unique value proposition? Is it really unique? What kind of company are they building? Will it be large enough to justify all of this investment? And as a result, these companies are coming out of these hard raises with better businesses, better operating models (lower burn rates!!), and bigger visions to go execute against."
"When I was on Wall Street I was just devouring any book I could on investing philosophy — I think I bring a structured approach. And the way I think about it, which will sound trite, but I'm always looking for some kind of competitive advantage, like some type of unfair ability to compete in the marketplace. I don't get drawn to the kind of enterprise deals that are just, "Who has the better sales force, knock them down," kind of thing." "I remember the OpenTable scenario. We're meeting with Chuck [Templeton], and he's in, like, three restaurants, and we're like, "How could this ever work?" And you're like, "Well, it can work if we tip it into a network effect and then everyone has to buy it." And that's what played out. It's that kind of thing. We were betting on the existence of a network effect. And people talk about network effects all the time, but you come up with ways to try and analyze whether it's possible or not. Will more diners lead to more restaurants, and will more restaurants lead to more diners? Are there ways to measure and study that? Or to implement the go-to-market strategy such that it exploits it as much as possible?" One particularly challenging element of a technology-based business is the moats of these businesses have network effects at their core. In a value chain dominated by network effects-based moats it is rare that a business can be fully rational about spending on customer acquisition when their competitor is spending on sales and marketing as if they have a printing press set up in a huge warehouse minting non-sequentially numbered $100 bills at zero cost. Since there is no way to predict when the spigots supplying new cash will be less available or even dry up and since network effects are so critical, a technology startup or business must, as Bill Gurley says: "play the game on the field." The entrepreneur must trade off: (1) the risk of running out of cash against (2) the risk of not acquiring essential network effects before more free spending competitors do so. There is no scientific method for optimally making this tradeoff. However, cash in the bank is something that can give the business a margin of safety. A famous investor once called cash "financial Valium."
All of this is obviously impacted by the availability and cost of capital. More cash means less people are paying attention to having sound unit economics. Gurley notes: "I was fortunate enough this summer to meet Warren Buffett — Chamath [Palihapitiya] was the one that made that happen. But we only had one question each, and I said, "You know, in our industry we're seeing that low interest rates are leading to overt competition that's irrational." And he says, 'You bet it is.' And he's seeing it in his business as well, and I think it's played out in natural gas and all these other pockets. Real estate in Silicon Valley, right? All these asset prices, because with interest rates so low you just have people looking for yield, so money sloshes around." There is clearly a lot of capital looking to find higher returns and that impacts the amount of capital invested in the venture capital industry which ends up in the hands of the businesses. This is having a significant impact on behavior to say the least. As Warren Buffett wrote in his February 28, 2001 Chairman's letter:
"Nothing sedates rationality like large doses of effortless money. After a heady experience of that kind, normally sensible people drift into behavior akin to that of Cinderella at the ball. They know that overstaying the festivities—that is, continuing to speculate in companies that have gigantic valuations relative to the cash they are likely to generate in the future—will eventually bring on pumpkins and mice. But they nevertheless hate to miss a single minute of what is one helluva party. Therefore, the giddy participants all plan to leave just seconds before midnight. There's a problem, though: They are dancing in a room in which the clocks have no hands."
"When I first arrived at Benchmark, it was like, 'Nothing can go wrong.' There was an IPO every week. And then, wham! Man, the door came down hard."
Joe Wiesenthal asked this question on Twitter recently: What caused the end of the Internet bubble. Here is my answer from a previous post:
"The Internet bubble was literally insane. I've never been involved in anything in my life that was more surreal. Fear of missing out (FOMO) caused the bubble to reach unprecedented levels. FOMO is driven by an innate human desire to avoid regret. Daniel Kahneman has counseled financial advisors to "try to prevent people from acting out of regret." Investors and speculators who are prone to regret are more prone to change their mind at precisely the wrong time. Primarily you want to protect them from regret, you want to protect them from the emotions associated with very big losses.They key takeaway from the Internet bubble, for me, is that when it happens is not predictable. If it is a bubble and it does bust, the day before is like any other day. One key "tell" that can give you a sense that something is up is looking around and seeing lots of companies that are unprofitable paying far too much to acquire customers. What is too much? If the customer over their lifetime is producing a return that is significantly net present value negative the business is paying too much. How much is too much? It depends. If this pattern of acquiring net present value negative customers is persistent and widespread hairs should be standing up on the back of your neck. The bigger the net present value deficit the bigger the risk. Can you predict when a bubble will end? No. "You can't predict, but you can prepare" says Howard Marks, and I agree. And for the hundredth time: risk is not the same thing as valuation."
The Internet bubble and its end were nonlinear. There was no single cause of its creation or its demise. They were what Charlie Munger calls "lollapaloozas." Michael Mauboussin describes the phenomenon: "Increasingly, professionals are forced to confront decisions related to complex systems, which are by their very nature nonlinear…Complex adaptive systems effectively obscure cause and effect. You can't make predictions in any but the broadest and vaguest terms. … Complexity doesn't lend itself to tidy mathematics in the way that some traditional, linear financial models do."
"It's called asymmetric returns. If you invest in something that doesn't work, you lose one times your money. If you miss Google, you lose 10,000 times your money. You have to orient yourself toward — Bruce [Dunlevie] uses the phrase, 'What could go right?" And you have to kind of think that way all the time." "The learning is that if you have remarkably asymmetric returns, you have to ask yourself, "How high could up be?" And then that "what could go right?" Because it's not a 50/50 thing on the judgment call. Like, if you thought it was a 20 percent chance at doing it, you should still do it, because the upside is so high." "You have to be very fortunate to fall on what people sometimes refer to as positive black swans, these break-out plays. And I think you could spend your whole career and do extremely well and never get behind one of the ones: A Facebook, a Google, that kind of thing. And it's almost impossible to predict ahead of time what's going to turn into something like that." "The moment that John Doerr and Mike Moritz closed the Google investment, which was probably all of a week and half, it was the biggest event in both those firms for over a decade. And something had happened in a week and a half. And for a lot of those companies, and I'll include the ones we're in, if you worked there it probably would have come out that way anyway. So the seminal event was that closing event that was very quick."
Convexity (huge upside and small downside) and power laws drive financial returns in venture capital. Venture capitalists must deal with systems which are, in the words of Nassim Taleb, "more like a cat than a washing machine." Nassim Taleb provides a quadrant-based model as a guide to decision making. Michael Maubousin provides a summary of what Nassim Taleb has created:
"A two-by-two matrix, where the rows distinguish between activities that have extreme outcomes and those that have more bunched outcomes, and the columns capture simple and complex payoffs. He allows that statistical methods work in the First Quadrant (simple payoffs and bunched outcomes), the Second Quadrant (complex payoffs and bunched outcomes), and the Third Quadrant (simple payoffs and extreme outcomes). But statistical methods fail in the Fourth Quadrant (complex payoffs and extreme outcomes)."
Richard Zeckhauser explains why
"The real world of investing often ratchets the level of non-knowledge into still another dimension, where even the identity and nature of possible future states are not known. This is the world of ignorance. In it, there is no way that one can sensibly assign probabilities to the unknown states of the world. Just as traditional finance theory hits the wall when it encounters uncertainty, modern decision theory hits the wall when addressing the world of ignorance."
The nature of the venture capital business is that financial returns come from the Fourth Quadrant/the world of ignorance. Standard statistical methods do not work. If you are looking for a career that is more protected from artificial intelligence, the Fourth Quadrant is a place to be. The great venture capitalists person accept this uncertainty and ignorance by seeking to become "antifragile" rather than trying to precisely predict outcomes that are not computable. This is part of the reason why there are venture capital firms. Warren Buffett advises:
"If significant risk exists in a single transaction, overall risk should be reduced by making that purchase one of many mutually-independent commitments. Thus, you may consciously purchase a risky investment – one that indeed has a significant possibility of causing loss or injury – if you believe that your gain, weighted for probabilities, considerably exceeds your loss, comparably weighted, and if you can commit to a number of similar, but unrelated opportunities. Most venture capitalists employ this strategy. Should you choose to pursue this course, you should adopt the outlook of the casino that owns a roulette wheel, which will want to see lots of action because it is favored by probabilities, but will refuse to accept a single, huge bet."
5. "There aren't that many [rules]. One of the games you play in venture is to know which rules to break at the right time. And so we constantly challenge ourselves. Like, "Should we maybe be dropping this rule at this moment in time because things are changing?" "In the venture rule book there's: "Don't back academics who insist on being CEO." So [when Google pitched to us] there was a number of things that said, "Don't do it." But two of the smartest investors ever [Sequoia and Kleiner] stepped up and did it. They also wanted a price that was seemingly ridiculous, obviously a very good investment. We failed to pursue it. It's always important to state it that way. Because to say 'pass' made it sound like we had a chance. I don't know if we had a chance. They presented to us and we failed to pursue it. And if we had, we would have had to compete with two of the best." When venture capitalists make a decision on an investment they must think about a range of issues. One of these issues is valuation. If the investor pays too much for an investment it can become very hard to hit the targeted potential return. Another issue is the ownership level. You need to own at significant stake in a business to justify diverting the time and energy of the venture capitalist and not investing in a business that may be viewed to create a conflict. The venture capital business is about tape measure financial home runs and those returns come from exceptions to what people thought was a rule before or things no one knew. It is worth repeating what Zeckhauser said above: there is no way that one can sensibly assign probabilities to the unknown states of the world. So for the venture capitalist the question is always: what rule it it wise to break in the case of this investment?
6. "Venture's really hard. And there's a lot of luck involved. And mistakes that you make — especially missing ideas." "Most big startup breakouts are where people aren't paying attention. As opposed to where everybody's got their guns lined up." "Between the time we looked at the [Uber] seed and when we did the A, Travis had moved into the CEO position. At the beginning we were just studying him as an angel investor in the thing, and probably by the time the A came around he was the CEO. It was hard. Like I said, we had a theory that it could be like OpenTable. So you know, OpenTable was sold for like $3 billion or something. So I'd be inaccurate if I suggested we had a vision that it could one day cause people to question car ownership. I never had considered that." The best venture capitalists are open and aware of the role that luck played in their lives and in their portfolio.When you listen to a Gurley interview he always takes time to thank the people who helped him along the way and to point out the good fortune he has experienced in his career. In a Quora AMA, Gurley gave a great answer to this question: What are the top pieces of advice you would give to your younger self? I can't think of a better way to end this post than Gurley's answer:
1) Read even more than you did.
2) Thank the people (more) that helped you along the way.
3) When Larry and Sergey ask for $110 pre-money, say "yes, we would be very excited about that."
Previous 25IQ on Bill Gurley: https://25iq.com/2013/09/09/a-dozen-things-ive-learned-from-bill-gurley-about-investing-and-business/
Above the Crowd: http://abovethecrowd.com/
ReCode: http://www.recode.net/2016/9/28/13095682/bill-gurley-benchmark-bubble-uber-recode-decode-podcast-transcript
Quora AMA: https://www.quora.com/session/Bill-Gurley/1#!n=30
McCombs Interview: http://www.today.mccombs.utexas.edu/2016/05/high-stakes
Om Malik: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dBaYsK_62EY
Pando: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUfkK2xcwnY
TechCrunch: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FTGQb32DCDE
GeekWire: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VVbK5LCpuWk
Gurley on Coach Campbell: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lfrbn4tH-NY
Bloomberg: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PwuAYyhfuMs
WSJ: http://www.wsj.com/video/bill-gurley-weve-become-comfortable-with-high-burn-rates/1A3324C6-40BF-4B64-BAD2-D2864F891AB3.html
CNBC: http://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/01/bill-gurleys-warning-for-start-up-investors.html
TechCrunch: https://techcrunch.com/2015/10/20/bill-gurley-surprises-with-a-positive-note-on-seed-stage-startups/
Techcrunch: https://techcrunch.com/2015/09/15/bill-gurley-on-some-high-flying-startups-and-their-economics-its-the-same-shit-as-in-99/
Fred Wilson: http://avc.com/2016/10/the-hard-raise/
A Half Dozen Things I've Learned from Robert Cialdini's book "Influence"
A Dozen Things I've Learned about Multi-sided Markets (Platforms)
"We do get approached when somebody has a takeover bid. They say, 'Would you like to top it or something?' To which… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… 9 hours ago


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How To Identify An Eastern Rat Snake?
May 17, 2022 June 27, 2021 | Rudy Miller
Eastern rat snakes (Pantherophis alleghaniensis) are one of the most common snake species over much of their native range. Several other snake species can be mistaken for them, however.
Adult eastern rat snakes are easily told apart by their black coloration, white chin, and slightly keeled scales. In Florida, eastern rat snakes have stripes down the body.
Dinstinctive Features
Eastern rat snakes are large and stout snakes.
The head is wider than the body but is mostly blunt. The neck is a bit narrower as well. This results in a slightly wedge-shaped head, but not like the abrupt triangle of a rattlesnake.
These are non-venomous constrictor snakes. In most of their range, these snakes are black as adults with a white chin and neck. The belly scales are an irregular checkerboard of black and white scales.
Juveniles are gray with irregularly shaped blotches down the body. These are equal in size. They also have a small band near the eyes. Adult rat snakes will grow to lengths between 3.5 and 7 feet long, though longer individuals have been recorded.
Males are also typically longer than females. These snakes can be found from New Jersey all the way down to Florida, with some regional variance in appearance.
Florida Specimens
One interesting thing to note is that animals from Florida have a distinct appearance from snakes found in more northern areas. Juveniles feature the same pattern as other members of this species.
The main difference is that they are typically more brown than gray.
Adults are very different.
They have four darker stripes that go down the length of the body. Instead of being black, these animals are typically black and yellow or yellow-brown in the more northern areas of the state.
Animals from the southern part of the Florida state or the Florida Keys can be more orange in color and typically have fainter or no stripes. They retain the faintly keeled scales and the body and head shape of this species.
The behavior of these snakes can help distinguish them from other species. These snakes are typically terrestrial or arboreal. They are very good climbers and can be found scaling trees and walls looking for prey.
These snakes have a wide diet that includes frogs, birds and their eggs, rodents, and even bats. They have unique behaviors that include taking on a rippled body shape when startled.
These snakes also rely on producing a foul-smelling and tasting musk to drive off predators. They may also change the head shape to look more triangular. Another defensive behavior is to rattle the tail and assume an 'S' posture to allow them to have a longer striking range.
These animals typically aren't aggressive and even wild individuals will typically calm down once they realize you won't hurt them. They can be found from rocky hillsides to farmland.
They have a strong sense of smell that they use to hunt. This means they may enter human dwellings or other structures looking for prey.
They are not dangerous to humans and are even beneficial to farmers since they eat rodents. It is important to make sure chicken coops are carefully snake-proofed since this species will happily eat chicks and eggs if they can get access to them.
These snakes can be mistaken for several other rat snakes and even venomous snakes like rattlesnakes. This is partly because the eastern rat snake mimics the rattlesnake to scare off predators.
The main behaviors that confuse many observers are changing the head shape to look more triangular and rattling the tail on leaves to mimic a rattling sound. They are frequently mistaken for related species as juveniles.
The gray rat snake (Pantherophis spiloides) looks very similar to juveniles and these snakes have been known to crossbreed where their range overlaps.
This can result in individuals that have features of both parent species. Corn snakes can look similar to juveniles, but corn snakes are typically red and much smaller as adults.
Juveniles and hatchlings look similar to black racer snakes, Northern water snakes, and even timber rattlesnakes.
Black racers have a uniform pattern and larger eyes and all of these snakes have patterns that go down the length of the tail, unlike a rattlesnake.
Eastern hognoses can be black as adults, but these snakes have an upturned scale on the snout that allows them to dig for the toad prey they favor.
he exact species they need to be separated from depends on the area and the age of the snake. For much of the northern range, the black racer looks similar, but the racer snake has a uniformly gray belly and larger eyes. Juvenile and sub-adult eastern rat snakes can also be mistaken for other species, but the pattern can help separate the species out.
Captive-bred Animals
Everything you need to know about caring for Black Rat Snakes in captivity:
Read our Black Rat Snake Care Sheet (Complete Guide)
It can be confusing to separate these snakes since some captive snakes may have unique colorations. For instance, albino animals lack melanin.
They appear yellow to a peachy-orange and can be mistaken for corn snakes when young. It is important to talk to the breeder so you know exactly what species you are receiving.
The snakes may also be sold under older scientific names such as Elaphe since it was once thought that the Old World and New World rat snakes were in the same genus. Do your research since different species of rat snake require different care requirements.
For instance, the Florida specimens are frequently sold under a slightly different name and require more humidity to stay healthy.
The Eastern rat snake is a harmless snake that is easy to mistake for others as a juvenile. While the adults are typically solid black, subadults may still have traces of juvenile patterning that can confuse identification.
You may also mistake them for a rattlesnake since they try to mimic timber rattlesnakes to scare off predators. Just look for the pattern of the snake and you should be able to tell what you are looking at.
Make sure you research the native snakes of your area so you know what to look out for. If you have experience with identifying these snakes or you have questions, be sure to leave a comment below.
How Big Do Eastern Rat Snakes Get?
Are Eastern Rat Snakes Dangerous?
What Do Black Rat Snakes Eat?


I received my MK802 in the mail today, and have been playing with in, both in Android and Ubuntu.
Initial impressions are that the firmware isn't quite there yet.. The Android build mostly worked well, but the resolution is locked at 1280x720, despite claims that it can do 1920x1080, and even up to 2160P!
However apart from that, it worked reasonably well as long as you didn't hit swap..
After all this, I read up on the mk802 forums, discovered the sunxi-tools for hacking around with the booting binaries, and messed around a bit, and managed a little world-first.. I managed to get 1920x1080 working at 50 Hz in Ubuntu, and it looks like that'll get ported into the Android version soon enough too. Hurrah!
I'm extremely dubious about claims the device can do up to 2160P.. It seems like it can barely do 1920x1080 at 50 Hz -- I tried 60 Hz, and there was a lot of tearing and glitches. But.. maybe with the Mali GPU being used it'd be OK?
Good observations regarding the device, I am thinking to buy one of this kind to use it as Media Streaming Device to my TV (its a 40 inch 1080p) with Android on it. Does this device is capable of streaming 1080p right out of the box with out any tweaks ? You mentioned in your blog that you have to tweak it a bit to do 1080, so curious ..
I'm afraid the MK802 *does not* support 1080p out of the box -- it'll only do 720p.
The hardware is *capable* of 1080, but currently that support only works if you use Ubuntu -- in which case you lose all the hardware video decoding support, so you can't play games or video.
However the community is getting onto hacking this device, and there are ports with GPU support in the pipeline.
If you're not a hacker type, then you are probably best off waiting a bit longer, until other people do the work and sort these issues out.
You mentioned that you were able to add bluetooth dongle. I've been trying to do this since I got the device. There doesn't seem to be a way to get the device to recognize or enable bluetooth. Could you please explain in detail how you managed it?
I thought I'd managed to get it going with Bluetooth in the Ubuntu Precise build for it, but since trying again today, all I can get is for the bluetooth symbol to appear in the task bar, but no ability to pair devices. I'm worried I may have been mistaken in my original assessment.
I've managed to build my own kernel for the device now, and was able to add support for USB Bluetooth adaptors.


Emotional Fitness Advice for parents: Stop trying to make your kids happy. Contentment fits better with Emotional Intelligence.
The above bit of parenting advice was prompted by this Daily Prompt: Community Service: Your entire community — however you define that; your hometown, your neighborhood, your family, your colleagues — is guaranteed to read your blog tomorrow. Write the post you'd like them all to see.
As the first skill I wish all could learn is the capacity to self-sooth, here are three Emotional Fitness Training exercises devoted to creating calm. Here are three self soothing exercises that are easy to learn, take minutes to practice, and in time become almost automatic, providing you practice them as directed . If you do not already use these or similar ones, take time to learn them. When you have mastered them, teach them to your child.
Tip one: The One Minute Meditation. Take a slow deep breath in, Hold until you feel tense, slowly breathe out; when breathing in for your next breath say "Thank" and smile gently. That is what EFTI calls a Calming Breath. Keep breathing but normally; observe,and count your breaths. When you have counted ten breaths, take another Calming Breath and go on with your life.
Tip two: Sloganeering calms negative self talk. Calming slogans need to be short and contain only positive words. Examples: "Staying strong," "Moving on," "Doing my best," or "Kindness helps." When stress builds doing the one minute Meditation and then continuing to repeat a calming slogan over and over in your head blocks negative self-talk. Some sing a song, others pray.
Tip three: Relax your face. A relaxed face, what EFTI calls Soft Face involves keeping your jaw relaxed, your teeth unclenched, your lips almost smiling, your eyes wide, your eyebrows un-knotted, and your forehead smooth. Practice in front of a mirror. Then when tensions mount, consciously make Soft Face. You will be surprized to find anger and stress leaving you.
Parenting as always been hard work and today's parents are further burdened by the emphasis on happiness. Happiness is a by-product and much less ours to control; contentment, however is within each person's reach. If you have done the best you could, enjoyed what you could, been kind to all you meet and grateful for what has been granted you contentment should blossom.
Sharing is caring, so if you found this post useful, please share it with another. For all you do, thank you.
This entry was posted in Parenting Issues, Take a Break Time and tagged Emotional fitness, Emotional Fitness Training, emotional intelligence, Katherine Gordy Levine, Parenting advice, parents, postaday. Bookmark the permalink.
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text:
Q: Aggregate function turns special characters (e.g. aͤ) into sequence of brackets and characters I've got a big dataframe with two rows: the magazine issue and the text. I've tried to aggregate all rows that belong to the same magazine issue into one row. After I've done that though, words like stuͤck turned into stu, <, u, +, >, ck.
How do I keep the original letters?
Text <- c("laßt sie uns genien seyen vorwaͤrts strebe", "ersten bandes, ersten
stuͤck verstaͤndigen ,jn" ,"Dreyein'ger Kraͤfte Wechselspiel: die Frucht")
issue <- c(1,1,2)
all <- data.frame(issue, Text)
allagg <- aggregate(all["Text"], by=list(all$issue), c)
print(allagg)

I tried using reprex but this already transformed the special characters into quotation marks from the beginning, so I hope this example is enough.

A: When I run your code I get
> aggregate(all["Text"], by=list(all$issue), c)
  Group.1 Text
1       1 3, 2
2       2    1

I'm not sure why this differs from the behavior you were observing.
If I replace FUN = c with FUN = paste, I get the original characters:
> aggregate(all["Text"], by=list(all$issue), paste)
  Group.1
1       1
2       2
                                                                                Text
1 laßt sie uns genien seyen vorwaͤrts strebe, ersten bandes, ersten \nstuͤck verstaͤndigen ,jn
2                                               Dreyein'ger Kraͤfte Wechselspiel: die Frucht

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


This month, the American Cancer Society (ACS) issued new recommendations regarding breast cancer screening.
Gilda Cardenosa, M.D., director of breast imaging at VCU Health, Massey Cancer Center, is the author of several preeminent textbooks on breast imaging. Cardenosa explains the recent changes to the ACS guidelines, how she views these changes and what they mean for women.
1. What changes did the American Cancer Society recently make to the breast screening guidelines?
Up until October 20, 2015, the American Cancer Society's recommendations were simple: screening mammography annually beginning at age 40.
A qualified recommendation "indicates there is clear evidence of benefit of screening but less certainty about the balance of benefits and harms, or about patients' values and preferences which could lead to different decisions".
A "strong recommendation conveys the consensus that the benefits of adherence to that intervention outweigh the undesirable effects that may result from screening".
2. At what age and how often do you recommend that women at average risk of breast cancer should get screening mammograms?
3. How is average risk of breast cancer defined?
4. Who is at higher risk for breast cancer?
5. When and how often do you recommend that a woman should get screening mammograms if she's at higher risk of breast cancer?
6. What does breast self-examination mean?
Then, while using soapy water, feel your breasts for any "lump". If you find a lump, does it hurt? Does the lump change in size so that sometimes you cannot feel it? If you find a lump that does not change, please bring it to the attention of you health care provider. Although there are exceptions, many breast cancer "lumps" do not hurt.
7. What changes in the breast should someone be concerned about?
8. Do you think that women should continue to get clinical breast exams?


Life and Total and Permanent Disability (TPD) cover can provide financial stability, benefits and breathing space to you and your family if you are injured, fall ill or die. It can ease the burden of paying bills, the mortgage, and other every-day living expenses, as well as unforeseen expenses, such as medical or funeral costs.
If you are under 60, you can apply through your Member Online account to have your other life cover, TPD or IP insurance cover transferred into your NGS Super Accumulation Account (subject to eligibility questions and acceptance by our insurer, TAL).
Life and disability cover insures against a wide range of medical conditions and accidental events. Claims are considered by our insurer and the NGS Super Trustee and successful claims are paid as a lump sum.
It's important to review your cover as your circumstances change to ensure it remains suited to your needs.
choose age-based cover in which case the amount of cover will change over time as you get older.
You can use our forms to change your insurance cover or complete requests through your Member Online account.
See how cost-effective our Life, Disability and Income Protection cover is with our insurance quote calculator.
To increase your coverage, apply online through your secure Member Online account or complete the Insurance variation (increase cover) form.
For further information, please read the Insurance Guide.
The key feature of our 'needs-based' design is that the amount of standard cover you have changes at certain ages. The Standard Cover package (while not necessarily being suitable for everyone) is designed to provide a basic level of protection throughout your working life, without your active involvement.
Total and Permanent Disablement (TPD) and Income Protection (IP) benefits that work in conjunction with each other. Our long-term IP benefit payment period will help to meet your future living expenses, while the lump sum TPD benefit aims to provide protection for other financial costs associated with a permanent disability.
Our standard IP cover provides a monthly benefit of up to 80% of your pre-incapacity income plus up to 10% super contribution if you are unable to work due to injury or sickness for more than 90 days. You can be paid benefits for up to 5 years or to age 67 if this is earlier.
You can apply for additional cover if you need more than our age-based Standard Cover.
In the event that you may be eligible to make a claim on your insurance, please call us on 1300 133 177. We will help you through the process and will provide you with a designated claims officer who will be in regular contact with you. You will find out more about eligibility in our Insurance Guide.