text:
Q: Is there a 1 in 20 or 1 in 400 chance of guessing the outcome of a d20 roll before it happens? My friends are in a bit of an argument over Dungeons & Dragons.
My player managed to guess the outcome of a D20 roll before it happened, and my friend said that his chance of guessing the number was 1 in 20. Another friend argues that his chance of guessing the roll is 1 in 400 because the probability of him randomly guessing a number and then rolling it were both 1 in 20 so the compound probability is 1 in 400. Which of these probabilities is a better characterization of our situation, and what were really his chances?

A: There are 400 possibilities and 20 of them, each occuring with probability $\frac{1}{400}$, have the guess equal to the outcome. So the total probability of having the guess equal to the outcome is $20\cdot \frac{1}{400} = \frac{20}{400} = \frac{1}{20}$
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1 & \color{red}{ \frac{1}{400}}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}\\
2 & \frac{1}{400}& \color{red}{ \frac{1}{400}}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}\\
3 & \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \color{red}{ \frac{1}{400}}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}\\
4 & \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \color{red}{ \frac{1}{400}}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}\\
5 & \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \color{red}{ \frac{1}{400}}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}\\
6 & \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \color{red}{ \frac{1}{400}}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}\\
7 & \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \color{red}{ \frac{1}{400}}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}\\
8 & \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \color{red}{ \frac{1}{400}}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}\\
9 & \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \color{red}{ \frac{1}{400}}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}\\
10 & \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \color{red}{ \frac{1}{400}}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}\\
11 & \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \color{red}{ \frac{1}{400}}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}\\
12 & \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \color{red}{ \frac{1}{400}}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}\\
13 & \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \color{red}{ \frac{1}{400}}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}\\
14 & \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \color{red}{ \frac{1}{400}}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}\\
15 & \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \color{red}{ \frac{1}{400}}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}\\
16 & \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \color{red}{ \frac{1}{400}}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}\\
17 & \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \color{red}{ \frac{1}{400}}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}\\
18 & \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \color{red}{ \frac{1}{400}}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}\\
19 & \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \color{red}{ \frac{1}{400}}& \frac{1}{400}\\
20 & \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \frac{1}{400}& \color{red}{ \frac{1}{400}}\\
\end{array}\end{array}}$$
More general
If the guesses do not have equal ${1}/{20}$ probability for each number, but instead values $p_i$ then the 400 possibilities would not be all with probability $(1/20)\cdot(1/20)={1}/{400}$, but instead ${p_i}/{20}$.
The concept is not different however. The answer boils down again to the sum of the diagonal and is $\sum_{i=1}^{20} \frac{p_i}{20} = \frac{1}{20} \sum_{i=1}^{20} p_i = \frac{1}{20}$.
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1& \color{red}{ \frac{p_{1}}{20}}& \frac{p_{1}}{20}& \frac{p_{1}}{20}& \frac{p_{1}}{20}& \frac{p_{1}}{20}& \frac{p_{1}}{20}& \frac{p_{1}}{20}& \frac{p_{1}}{20}& \frac{p_{1}}{20}& \frac{p_{1}}{20}& \frac{p_{1}}{20}& \frac{p_{1}}{20}& \frac{p_{1}}{20}& \frac{p_{1}}{20}& \frac{p_{1}}{20}& \frac{p_{1}}{20}& \frac{p_{1}}{20}& \frac{p_{1}}{20}& \frac{p_{1}}{20}& \frac{p_{1}}{20}\\2& \frac{p_{2}}{20}& \color{red}{ \frac{p_{2}}{20}}& \frac{p_{2}}{20}& \frac{p_{2}}{20}& \frac{p_{2}}{20}& \frac{p_{2}}{20}& \frac{p_{2}}{20}& \frac{p_{2}}{20}& \frac{p_{2}}{20}& \frac{p_{2}}{20}& \frac{p_{2}}{20}& \frac{p_{2}}{20}& \frac{p_{2}}{20}& \frac{p_{2}}{20}& \frac{p_{2}}{20}& \frac{p_{2}}{20}& \frac{p_{2}}{20}& \frac{p_{2}}{20}& \frac{p_{2}}{20}& \frac{p_{2}}{20}\\3& \frac{p_{3}}{20}& \frac{p_{3}}{20}& \color{red}{ \frac{p_{3}}{20}}& \frac{p_{3}}{20}& \frac{p_{3}}{20}& \frac{p_{3}}{20}& \frac{p_{3}}{20}& \frac{p_{3}}{20}& \frac{p_{3}}{20}& \frac{p_{3}}{20}& \frac{p_{3}}{20}& \frac{p_{3}}{20}& \frac{p_{3}}{20}& \frac{p_{3}}{20}& \frac{p_{3}}{20}& \frac{p_{3}}{20}& \frac{p_{3}}{20}& \frac{p_{3}}{20}& \frac{p_{3}}{20}& \frac{p_{3}}{20}\\4& \frac{p_{4}}{20}& \frac{p_{4}}{20}& \frac{p_{4}}{20}& \color{red}{ \frac{p_{4}}{20}}& \frac{p_{4}}{20}& \frac{p_{4}}{20}& \frac{p_{4}}{20}& \frac{p_{4}}{20}& \frac{p_{4}}{20}& \frac{p_{4}}{20}& \frac{p_{4}}{20}& \frac{p_{4}}{20}& \frac{p_{4}}{20}& \frac{p_{4}}{20}& \frac{p_{4}}{20}& \frac{p_{4}}{20}& \frac{p_{4}}{20}& \frac{p_{4}}{20}& \frac{p_{4}}{20}& \frac{p_{4}}{20}\\5& \frac{p_{5}}{20}& \frac{p_{5}}{20}& \frac{p_{5}}{20}& \frac{p_{5}}{20}& \color{red}{ \frac{p_{5}}{20}}& \frac{p_{5}}{20}& \frac{p_{5}}{20}& \frac{p_{5}}{20}& \frac{p_{5}}{20}& \frac{p_{5}}{20}& \frac{p_{5}}{20}& \frac{p_{5}}{20}& \frac{p_{5}}{20}& \frac{p_{5}}{20}& \frac{p_{5}}{20}& \frac{p_{5}}{20}& \frac{p_{5}}{20}& \frac{p_{5}}{20}& \frac{p_{5}}{20}& \frac{p_{5}}{20}\\6& \frac{p_{6}}{20}& \frac{p_{6}}{20}& \frac{p_{6}}{20}& \frac{p_{6}}{20}& \frac{p_{6}}{20}& \color{red}{ \frac{p_{6}}{20}}& \frac{p_{6}}{20}& \frac{p_{6}}{20}& \frac{p_{6}}{20}& \frac{p_{6}}{20}& \frac{p_{6}}{20}& \frac{p_{6}}{20}& \frac{p_{6}}{20}& \frac{p_{6}}{20}& \frac{p_{6}}{20}& \frac{p_{6}}{20}& \frac{p_{6}}{20}& \frac{p_{6}}{20}& \frac{p_{6}}{20}& \frac{p_{6}}{20}\\7& \frac{p_{7}}{20}& \frac{p_{7}}{20}& \frac{p_{7}}{20}& \frac{p_{7}}{20}& \frac{p_{7}}{20}& \frac{p_{7}}{20}& \color{red}{ \frac{p_{7}}{20}}& \frac{p_{7}}{20}& \frac{p_{7}}{20}& \frac{p_{7}}{20}& \frac{p_{7}}{20}& \frac{p_{7}}{20}& \frac{p_{7}}{20}& \frac{p_{7}}{20}& \frac{p_{7}}{20}& \frac{p_{7}}{20}& \frac{p_{7}}{20}& \frac{p_{7}}{20}& \frac{p_{7}}{20}& \frac{p_{7}}{20}\\8& \frac{p_{8}}{20}& \frac{p_{8}}{20}& \frac{p_{8}}{20}& \frac{p_{8}}{20}& \frac{p_{8}}{20}& \frac{p_{8}}{20}& \frac{p_{8}}{20}& \color{red}{ \frac{p_{8}}{20}}& \frac{p_{8}}{20}& \frac{p_{8}}{20}& \frac{p_{8}}{20}& \frac{p_{8}}{20}& \frac{p_{8}}{20}& \frac{p_{8}}{20}& \frac{p_{8}}{20}& \frac{p_{8}}{20}& \frac{p_{8}}{20}& \frac{p_{8}}{20}& \frac{p_{8}}{20}& \frac{p_{8}}{20}\\9& \frac{p_{9}}{20}& \frac{p_{9}}{20}& \frac{p_{9}}{20}& \frac{p_{9}}{20}& \frac{p_{9}}{20}& \frac{p_{9}}{20}& \frac{p_{9}}{20}& \frac{p_{9}}{20}& \color{red}{ \frac{p_{9}}{20}}& \frac{p_{9}}{20}& \frac{p_{9}}{20}& \frac{p_{9}}{20}& \frac{p_{9}}{20}& \frac{p_{9}}{20}& \frac{p_{9}}{20}& \frac{p_{9}}{20}& \frac{p_{9}}{20}& \frac{p_{9}}{20}& \frac{p_{9}}{20}& \frac{p_{9}}{20}\\10& \frac{p_{10}}{20}& \frac{p_{10}}{20}& \frac{p_{10}}{20}& \frac{p_{10}}{20}& \frac{p_{10}}{20}& \frac{p_{10}}{20}& \frac{p_{10}}{20}& \frac{p_{10}}{20}& \frac{p_{10}}{20}& \color{red}{ \frac{p_{10}}{20}}& \frac{p_{10}}{20}& \frac{p_{10}}{20}& \frac{p_{10}}{20}& \frac{p_{10}}{20}& \frac{p_{10}}{20}& \frac{p_{10}}{20}& \frac{p_{10}}{20}& \frac{p_{10}}{20}& \frac{p_{10}}{20}& \frac{p_{10}}{20}\\11& \frac{p_{11}}{20}& \frac{p_{11}}{20}& \frac{p_{11}}{20}& \frac{p_{11}}{20}& \frac{p_{11}}{20}& \frac{p_{11}}{20}& \frac{p_{11}}{20}& \frac{p_{11}}{20}& \frac{p_{11}}{20}& \frac{p_{11}}{20}& \color{red}{ \frac{p_{11}}{20}}& \frac{p_{11}}{20}& \frac{p_{11}}{20}& \frac{p_{11}}{20}& \frac{p_{11}}{20}& \frac{p_{11}}{20}& \frac{p_{11}}{20}& \frac{p_{11}}{20}& \frac{p_{11}}{20}& \frac{p_{11}}{20}\\12& \frac{p_{12}}{20}& \frac{p_{12}}{20}& \frac{p_{12}}{20}& \frac{p_{12}}{20}& \frac{p_{12}}{20}& \frac{p_{12}}{20}& \frac{p_{12}}{20}& \frac{p_{12}}{20}& \frac{p_{12}}{20}& \frac{p_{12}}{20}& \frac{p_{12}}{20}& \color{red}{ \frac{p_{12}}{20}}& \frac{p_{12}}{20}& \frac{p_{12}}{20}& \frac{p_{12}}{20}& \frac{p_{12}}{20}& \frac{p_{12}}{20}& \frac{p_{12}}{20}& \frac{p_{12}}{20}& \frac{p_{12}}{20}\\13& \frac{p_{13}}{20}& \frac{p_{13}}{20}& \frac{p_{13}}{20}& \frac{p_{13}}{20}& \frac{p_{13}}{20}& \frac{p_{13}}{20}& \frac{p_{13}}{20}& \frac{p_{13}}{20}& \frac{p_{13}}{20}& \frac{p_{13}}{20}& \frac{p_{13}}{20}& \frac{p_{13}}{20}& \color{red}{ \frac{p_{13}}{20}}& \frac{p_{13}}{20}& \frac{p_{13}}{20}& \frac{p_{13}}{20}& \frac{p_{13}}{20}& \frac{p_{13}}{20}& \frac{p_{13}}{20}& \frac{p_{13}}{20}\\14& \frac{p_{14}}{20}& \frac{p_{14}}{20}& \frac{p_{14}}{20}& \frac{p_{14}}{20}& \frac{p_{14}}{20}& \frac{p_{14}}{20}& \frac{p_{14}}{20}& \frac{p_{14}}{20}& \frac{p_{14}}{20}& \frac{p_{14}}{20}& \frac{p_{14}}{20}& \frac{p_{14}}{20}& \frac{p_{14}}{20}& \color{red}{ \frac{p_{14}}{20}}& \frac{p_{14}}{20}& \frac{p_{14}}{20}& \frac{p_{14}}{20}& \frac{p_{14}}{20}& \frac{p_{14}}{20}& \frac{p_{14}}{20}\\15& \frac{p_{15}}{20}& \frac{p_{15}}{20}& \frac{p_{15}}{20}& \frac{p_{15}}{20}& \frac{p_{15}}{20}& \frac{p_{15}}{20}& \frac{p_{15}}{20}& \frac{p_{15}}{20}& \frac{p_{15}}{20}& \frac{p_{15}}{20}& \frac{p_{15}}{20}& \frac{p_{15}}{20}& \frac{p_{15}}{20}& \frac{p_{15}}{20}& \color{red}{ \frac{p_{15}}{20}}& \frac{p_{15}}{20}& \frac{p_{15}}{20}& \frac{p_{15}}{20}& \frac{p_{15}}{20}& \frac{p_{15}}{20}\\16& \frac{p_{16}}{20}& \frac{p_{16}}{20}& \frac{p_{16}}{20}& \frac{p_{16}}{20}& \frac{p_{16}}{20}& \frac{p_{16}}{20}& \frac{p_{16}}{20}& \frac{p_{16}}{20}& \frac{p_{16}}{20}& \frac{p_{16}}{20}& \frac{p_{16}}{20}& \frac{p_{16}}{20}& \frac{p_{16}}{20}& \frac{p_{16}}{20}& \frac{p_{16}}{20}& \color{red}{ \frac{p_{16}}{20}}& \frac{p_{16}}{20}& \frac{p_{16}}{20}& \frac{p_{16}}{20}& \frac{p_{16}}{20}\\17& \frac{p_{17}}{20}& \frac{p_{17}}{20}& \frac{p_{17}}{20}& \frac{p_{17}}{20}& \frac{p_{17}}{20}& \frac{p_{17}}{20}& \frac{p_{17}}{20}& \frac{p_{17}}{20}& \frac{p_{17}}{20}& \frac{p_{17}}{20}& \frac{p_{17}}{20}& \frac{p_{17}}{20}& \frac{p_{17}}{20}& \frac{p_{17}}{20}& \frac{p_{17}}{20}& \frac{p_{17}}{20}& \color{red}{ \frac{p_{17}}{20}}& \frac{p_{17}}{20}& \frac{p_{17}}{20}& \frac{p_{17}}{20}\\18& \frac{p_{18}}{20}& \frac{p_{18}}{20}& \frac{p_{18}}{20}& \frac{p_{18}}{20}& \frac{p_{18}}{20}& \frac{p_{18}}{20}& \frac{p_{18}}{20}& \frac{p_{18}}{20}& \frac{p_{18}}{20}& \frac{p_{18}}{20}& \frac{p_{18}}{20}& \frac{p_{18}}{20}& \frac{p_{18}}{20}& \frac{p_{18}}{20}& \frac{p_{18}}{20}& \frac{p_{18}}{20}& \frac{p_{18}}{20}& \color{red}{ \frac{p_{18}}{20}}& \frac{p_{18}}{20}& \frac{p_{18}}{20}\\19& \frac{p_{19}}{20}& \frac{p_{19}}{20}& \frac{p_{19}}{20}& \frac{p_{19}}{20}& \frac{p_{19}}{20}& \frac{p_{19}}{20}& \frac{p_{19}}{20}& \frac{p_{19}}{20}& \frac{p_{19}}{20}& \frac{p_{19}}{20}& \frac{p_{19}}{20}& \frac{p_{19}}{20}& \frac{p_{19}}{20}& \frac{p_{19}}{20}& \frac{p_{19}}{20}& \frac{p_{19}}{20}& \frac{p_{19}}{20}& \frac{p_{19}}{20}& \color{red}{ \frac{p_{19}}{20}}& \frac{p_{19}}{20}\\20& \frac{p_{20}}{20}& \frac{p_{20}}{20}& \frac{p_{20}}{20}& \frac{p_{20}}{20}& \frac{p_{20}}{20}& \frac{p_{20}}{20}& \frac{p_{20}}{20}& \frac{p_{20}}{20}& \frac{p_{20}}{20}& \frac{p_{20}}{20}& \frac{p_{20}}{20}& \frac{p_{20}}{20}& \frac{p_{20}}{20}& \frac{p_{20}}{20}& \frac{p_{20}}{20}& \frac{p_{20}}{20}& \frac{p_{20}}{20}& \frac{p_{20}}{20}& \frac{p_{20}}{20}& \color{red}{ \frac{p_{20}}{20}}\\
\end{array}\end{array}}$$
More interesting is the case when both probabilities, for the guess and for the outcome, are not uniform (not equal probabilities). For instance, we could imagine rolling an unfair d20 two times. Then the probability will be equal to the expectation $E[p_i] = \sum_{i=1}^{20} p_i^2$. This will be larger than $\frac{1}{20}$ if the $p_i$ are unequal.

A: Yes for any specific number $1,\ldots,20$ the probability that your friend selects that number and the dice rolls it is 1/400, but you must marginalize over all possible options:
If $X\sim \text{Unif}(1,\ldots,20)$, $Y\sim \text{Unif}(1,\ldots,20)$, Let $Z=X-Y$ then
$$
\begin{align*}
\text{P}(\text{predict roll}) &= \text{P}(Z=0)\\
&= \sum_{y=1}^{20} P(X=0+y)P(Y=y) &&\text{convolution formula for sums of random variables}\\
&= \sum_{y=1}^{20} \tfrac{1}{20}\tfrac{1}{20}\\
&= \tfrac{1}{20}
\end{align*}
$$
And by simulation
tmp <- data.frame(x=sample(1:20, size=100000, replace=TRUE ), y=sample(1:20, size=100000, replace=TRUE ))
> mean(tmp$x == tmp$y)
[1] 0.0497

A: Instead of a die roll, let's look at a coin flip. I guess whether the coin will land on heads or tails, and then you flip the coin.
There are four possible guess+outcome combinations:

*

*I guess heads, and the coin lands on heads.

*I guess heads, and the coin lands on tails.

*I guess tails, and the coin lands on heads.

*I guess tails, and the coin lands on tails.

Assuming that my guesses themselves are truly random—i.e. I am no more likely to guess any particular option than I am to guess any other*—then the probability that any particular guess+outcome combination will occur is (1/2)(1/2) = 1/4.
Now, any particular guess+outcome combination can be classified as either a "correct guess", meaning that the guess and the outcome match, or an "incorrect guess", meaning they do not match. The probability that a correct-guess combination will occur is computed by looking at each possible correct-guess combination, finding the probability that that particular combination will occur, and then summing those probabilities together. So in this case, the probability of a correct guess is (1/4)+(1/4) = 1/2.
This makes intuitive sense. We all know that our chances of guessing a coin flip are 50/50; if they were 25/75, we would never agree to a coin flip in the first place.
Your friend's die roll may be based on 1-in-20 odds instead of 1-in-2 odds, but the same logic applies. If your friend guesses randomly,* the probablility of any particular guess+outcome combination occurring is (1/20)(1/20) = 1/400. But since there are 20 possible correct-guess combinations (guess 1 + outcome 1, guess 2 + outcome 2, ..., guess 20 + outcome 20), the probability of a correct guess is (1/400)+(1/400)+...+(1/400) = 20/400 = 1/20.
*In real life, human beings do not guess randomly. When you ask people to pick a number between 1 and 10, they are more likely to pick 7 than 6 or 8. That complicates the math for determining the probability of any particular guess+outcome combination. But as long as the outcome (coin/die/whatever) remains random, the probability of a correct guess will not change, because the higher probability of certain guesses will be offset by the lower probability of the other guesses. fblundun's answer does a better job of describing this.

A: In more layman's terms, I would describe it like this:
Let's say the friend guesses 20--take that as a given. Now we roll the die, what's the chance that a d20 roll is 20? 1/20 = 5%.
Okay, now let's say the friend guesses 19. In this case, what's the chance that a d20 roll is 19? 1/20 = 5%.
What if the friend guesses 18? 1/20 = 5%.
Et cetera.
In every case, from guess = 1 up to guess = 20, the probability of the die roll equaling the guess is 1/20 = 5%. The guess doesn't matter at all (as long as it falls between 1 and 20, clearly a guess of 42 has a 0% chance of being correct). Whatever the guess, whether the process for generating the guess is random, bad human-approximation of random, fixed, or anything else, as long as the guess is between 1 and 20, the probability of the roll matching the guess is 1/20.
Mathematically, this is shown rigorously in @fblundun's answer - I'm trying to explain that math in an accessible way.

A: Let's simulate it!
set.seed(2021)
R <- 10000
d <- 20
guess <- sample(seq(1, d, 1), R, replace = T)
roll <- sample(seq(1, d, 1), R, replace = T)
length(which(guess == roll))/R

I get that about $1/20$ $(486/10000)$ times my guess match the roll. If you chop off the last digit of the seed and run the code with set.seed(202), I get exactly $5\%$. With next year's seed of 2022, I get $4.99\%$.
In more mathematical terms, this is the difference between the probability of rolling a number AND guessing that number (probably not what interests you) versus rolling a number GIVEN your guess. Assuming the roll and guess are independent...
$$
P(Roll = n) = 1/20\\
P(Guess = n) = 1/20\\
P(Roll = n \text{ AND } Guess = n) = 1/400\\
P(Roll = n \vert Guess = n) = \dfrac{P(Roll = n \text{ AND } Guess = n)}{P(Guess = n)} =  \dfrac{1/400}{1/20} = 1/20
$$
EDIT
If you don't have equal probability of each number, the calculation can be modified. I'll do the case where the human is not necessarily good at picking numbers with uniform probability of each number. Again, assume independence of the guess and the roll.
$$
P(Roll = n) = 1/20\\
P(Guess = n) = p\\
P(Roll = n \text{ AND } Guess = n) = p/20\\
P(Roll = n \vert Guess = n) = \dfrac{P(Roll = n \text{ AND } Guess = n)}{P(Guess = n)} =  \dfrac{p/20}{p} = 1/20
$$
If also the d20 is not fair:
$$
P(Roll = n) = p_1\\
P(Guess = n) = p_2\\
P(Roll = n \text{ AND } Guess = n) = p_1p_2\\
P(Roll = n \vert Guess = n) = \dfrac{P(Roll = n \text{ AND } Guess = n)}{P(Guess = n)} =  \dfrac{p_1p_2}{p_2} = p_1
$$
So it only depends on the probability of rolling a particular number.

A: Your another friend is arguing that:

*

*Guessing the roll; and

*Rolling the roll.

Are independent events. But that's not what you are measuring. You a measuring:

*

*Only the matching (of guest and roll has the same value).

There is one guest and 20 possible roll outcomes. So a chance of 1/20.

A: The probability of your friend correctly predicting the outcome of the roll was 1 in 20.
The probability of your friend correctly predicting that that specific number would be the outcome of the roll was 1 in 400.
Let's say the friend predicted it would be a 20. If you'd have been equally impressed if he'd predicted it would be a 4, then you're in the first situation (1/20). If you don't care about a correct prediction unless it was a 20, you're in the second situation (1/400).
Put another way, suppose you were watching your friend from behind a glass window, and you knew he was going to try to call the roll. If you said, "he will correctly predict the outcome of the roll" you'd have a 1 in 20 chance of being right. If you said, "he will correctly predict that he will roll a perfect 20" you'd have a 1 in 400 chance of being right.

A: What is the chance a D20 lands on 20? 5%.
What is the chance a D20 lands on 7? 5%.
What is the chance a D20 lands on [whatever number your friend named]? 5%.
No matter how you select a specific number from 1-20, a D20 has a 5% chance of matching it. Any particular number is always 5% likely, regardless of whether your friend chooses that number or not.

A: I don't think any of the existing answers explicitly state why the answer is 1 in 20 even if the friend is not equally likely to guess all 20 numbers (they aren't - humans are not good random number generators, and the friend might not even be trying to guess randomly).
For each possible roll $i$, let $p_i$ be the probability of your friend guessing $i$. We know that these probabilities must sum to 1:
$$\sum_{i=1}^{20}p_i = 1$$
Then the probability of the friend guessing correctly is:
$$
\sum_{i=1}^{20} P(\text{friend guesses } i)P(\text{roll }i) = \sum_{i=1}^{20}p_i \frac{1}{20} = \frac{1}{20}\sum_{i=1}^{20}p_i = \frac{1}{20}
$$

A:
the probability of him randomly guessing a number and then rolling it
were both 1 in 20 so the compound probability is 1 in 400.

The probability of your friend guessing a number is not 1/20, the probability is 1. Unless there is a chance he would fail to guess anything or a chance he would guess something not on the D20.
So the formula for your friend guessing the correct outcome of the roll is:
1 * 1/20
or 1/20
Now, the odds of you guessing what your friend is going to guess and then that guess being correct, that would be 1/400. But that doesn't appear to be the situation.

A: Your friend is confusing the situation where both players roll the same specific number (which would give you 1/400) vs the situation you are in where they have to roll the same number but it could be any number (1/20). I suppose your confusion is that you have to roll the specific number your friend guessed but, which makes it seem like the first situation I described, however the difference is that your guess could have been any number.

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


Last weekend, during the snow storm in the Cascades I decided to take a trip to Leavenworth. It snowed all day and accumulated about a foot of snow, adding to the 6-8 inches already on the ground. Needless to say, when it came time to leave my car was pretty buried and I was pretty doubtful I would make it out of the driveway. Without any hesitation, rocking, and effortlessly my Subaru Outback Sport plowed its way out and I was on my way. This is why I love my Subaru, why do you love your Subaru?


Sanpellegrino is the famous Italian tight brand known for its exceptional lycra quality and its 'massage' tights. Sanpellegrino also brings to market a wide range of knee highs and foot protectors.
Hosiery at an incomparable quality/price ratio.


The MCF54418 I am working on appears to have 64-bit math support in CW 10.3.
I've tested a lot of 64-bit math and it all appears to work fine.
This isn't a major issue, since these functions can be coerced in other ways, but it would just be cleaner if I could use them and I'm not sure exactly how to enable them.
but the lldiv_t will not compile.
When I followed the structure definitions to div_t.h it appeared that _EWL_LONGLONG was not defined.
to my program it wouldn't build.
I didn't want to change this file since it appears to be somewhat a standard code block, rather than a board-specific one.
So would anyone know where exactly would be the place to define _EWL_LONGLONG?
If you are using MQX you must rebuild the PSP library of MCF54418 with c9x library instead of default C++ library. You can do it by importing the psp project of MCF54418TWR from "\\Freescale MQX 3.8\mqx\build\cw10\psp_twrmcf54418" and checking the option "Enable automatic library configurations" to use "c9x". Then you can just rebuild it. The new "bsp_twrmcf54418_d.a" will be linked with your project to let you use standard I/O.
(<arith.h> includes both <ansi_parms.h> and <div_t.h>).
Not sure what it is referring to. I don't recognize an "isdigit" function... must be in some library.
I'll do a bit more research since I'm not really sure what the different library models are doing.
I've just encountered the same problem you mention in your last post; Undefined : "_ctypes_" Referenced from "isdigit" and "isupper".
These are the last 2 build errors I have after spending a week porting a large M52259 MCU-based application from CodeWarrior 7.1/MQX 3.2 to CodeWarrior 10.4/MQX 4.0.1.
I have the Librarian set to use the "c9x" Model. I wish there was some more info on how the system automatically selects the correct libraries to use after only specifying the ewl library location in the Library Search Paths.
Perhaps the ewl libraries need to be rebuilt??
Bump. I'm getting the exact same failure on a Kinetis K60 build with CW 10.4 and MQX 4.0.1. I was trying to use some 64-bit routines (strtoull()) and ran into the ewl/c9x problem. I just closed a ticket with support regarding the c9x library selection... in fact, it may have been the same Carlos who answered above.
I'm going to open a ticket, I'll report back with what I find.


Are you looking for a qucik meal to serve your family. These chicken breasts can be prepared and fried up quickly since they are pounded to a unifrom thickness..
click on the picture to enlarge the tutorial collage..
Since I've discovered Panko Bread Crumbs. . . .I've been coating a variety of meat, fish and poultry in a variety of herb and seasoning variations. The crumbs stay fresh much longer than regular bread crumbs and I often freeze them to ensure freshness if I don't plan to use them often..
Put the chicken breasts in a resealable bag and pound thin with either a heavy frying pan or a meat mallet.
Combine the crumbs and the seasonings on a large dinner plate.
Dip the chicken in the egg mixture and then dredge in the bread crumb mixture on both sides.
Heat a heavy large fry pan over medium heat.
Melt the butter in the pan, add the olive oil and then add the chicken but don't crowd the pan. The chicken will not brown properly if you crowd the pan. .the chicken will poach in the juices and you will not have a crispy coating.
Brown on both sides and then move the chicken to a dish and pop into a 350 oven while you sear the remaining chicken breasts. When you have your last ones in the pan, turn down the heat to medium low and continue cooking until no pink remains in the middle of the meat. This should work out perfectly with the chicken that has continued to cook through in the oven.
Serve with wedges of lemon and give them a squeeze over the chicken pieces.
If you are doing a large family batch. . .you may want to turn the oven down a bit to avoid the chicken drying out. The chicken should be crispy on the outside. . and tender and juicy on the inside.
would you cover the pieces that you put in the oven or leave them uncovered? My husband really shys away from chicken breasts, because they are too commonly dry. I will try these and hopefully not dry them out.
Lorrie, I might just put a loose piece of foil over the chicken but I didn't that day since I only did a few pieces and it never had a chance to dry out. If you would seal the dish, the crust would lose it's crispness.
The key is to not over fry. Slice into the center once it is browned on both sides and if the meat is white and not pink .. it's done.
This looks awesome Lovella..I need to try those panko crumbs next time.
These look yummy, I wonder if they would work with gluten-free crumbs. I'll just have to try, right?? smile..
Lovella, I love using the Panko crumbs. I use them on fish and chicken both and they always maintain their crispness.
Also, Lorrie, when you brown the breasts first, you seal in the juices and the chicken stays moist in the oven. Just don't leave it in there too long.
Panko crumbs are new to me...but I'm game to try them. Yummy looking chicken!
In Hawaii, we use Panko crumbs frequently to coat fish and chicken. It gives just the right texture. Pam P.S. I wanted to say how wonderful all your food looks; it is making me very hungry!
What would be an average/round about time in the oven for this scrumptious looking chicken?
I hesitate to suggest how long it would be because of the cooking time that could differ in the browning process, but I do think 30 minutes would be enough time.


text:
Q: stop_forward_pass in Tensorflow let's imagine that Tensorflow graph is consist of two parallel branches that have a common start and common end. In some point, I want to tell Tensorflow to stop disable computations on one branch. In other words stop forward and backward passes.  For the backward pass we have  stop_gradient op. But what for the forward pass, how to disable it? If this is not implemented now, please give me hints how can I create such op?

A: From the discussion we had you can do something like this:
out = f(branch1, tf.cond(should_disable, lambda: last_branch2_value, lambda: branch2))

Here should_disbale is a bool that determines if branch2 is computed or not. Note that tf.cond() is "differentiable" meaning that TensorFlow is smart enough to not do backward pass through branch2 if should_disbale is True
See the docs for tf.cond  for more details.


text:
Reductio ad Homosexualem
So I'm counter-trolling a vatnik on Twitter the other day, and I make a point about how Russia's ruling mentality is stuck in the 19th century. That's not exactly figurative either. The leading ideology in Russia's political circles and among its intelligentsia is almost entirely based on, if not influenced by, the 19th century idea of geopolitics. They want to go back to the 19th century. But I digress.
My cotton-padded opponent claimed that progress is relative, and that the West's idea of progress is…wait for it…drum roll…homosexuality. Well to be sure, he used the word "sodomy," which is even more idiotic seeing as how by definition, "sodomy" can be practiced by heterosexual couples. Though this is rendered even more idiotic coming from a Russian, as there is some very convincing evidence that anal sex pornography is extremely popular in Russia. Of course anyone with even a passing familiarity with contemporary Russian politics knows that he was of course referring to Western tolerance for homosexuals.
Yup, that's all progress in the West really boils down to. In fact all of Western culture boils down to homosexuality and boys being taught to act like girls, just like they say on Russian TV. Forget incredible feats of engineering, astrophysics, and medicine. Forget freedom of speech, contested elections, and the right to carry on massive demonstrations against unpopular policies. All the culture and achievements of the industrialized world, seeing as how there are non-Western industrial powers which are also tolerant of LGBT people, can be boiled down to dicks touching other dicks. Hell, we should all change our national flags to crossed dicks on a rainbow background.
This just underscores the fact that Putin's Russia has nothing to contribute to the modern world. It doesn't export any cutting-edge technology. Hell, they had to import around 40% of their food. It doesn't produce movies anyone wants to watch, and that includes its own citizens. Apart from caviar, nobody clamors for Russian cuisine abroad. It is a country which, based on its tech-savvy young population, natural skill at improvisation, and massive wealth in resources, ought to be competing with countries like Germany or South Korea in terms of technical achievements, infrastructure, and standards of living. But instead of this, much of the country, even just outside Moscow, resembles a third world nation. All the while around 35% of the national wealth is concentrated in the hands of just 110 individuals.
Most Russians are aware of their country's backwardness; if not from personal experience they at least suspect that the rest of the world has it better no matter what Tim Kirby tells them. So some people desperately grasp at the straw of open homosexuality, specifically gay parades and same sex marriage, acting as though this isn't just a negative thing, but that it in fact negates all the massive advantages Western countries have over Putin's dysfunctional state. In reality of course, it's no secret that those states which have progressive attitudes towards LGBT people, and in fact towards pretty much anybody, have the highest standards of living in the world. By contrast, the stricter the laws a country has against homosexuality or non-traditional relationships of any kind, the poorer and more backward it tends to be. Of course the success of the former is not directly caused by that tolerance. Success breeds freedom, whereas poverty goes hand in hand with tradition. People tend to forget that traditions formed for concrete reasons. Religious-based injunctions against homosexuality date from times when it was essential that people have as a many children as possible, just as laws mandating female chastity until marriage were rooted in the need to secure one's line of heirs. The point here is that if tolerance of homosexuality is such a destructive thing for a society, we should see something very different in the world. Countries like Russia and Iran should be on top, while countries like the Netherlands and Spain languish in poverty and corruption.
Of course when you point out how all these "degenerate" countries are doing better than Russia, the response of the patriots or their right-wing foreign supporters always amounts to shaking their fist and saying, "Just you wait! You'll pay the price for violating the laws of nature! You'll see! You'll all see! Well I'm very sorry but no. As it turns out, Slavophiles and their fellow travelers were peddling this bullshit about Russia "saving" the West from its decay over 100 years ago. Russia represented tradition, the hierarchy of absolute monarchy over the degenerate mass-politics of liberal democracy. But who ended up collapsing back then? Oh right- Russia. What was it that managed to drag the ruined Russian empire into the 20th century and actually managed to make it a serious rival to the West in terms of science and industry? That's right, a left-wing, degenerate Western philosophy known as Marxism. Now it's 2015 and once again we're being told that the West is going to collapse because it has turned its back on its traditions. Meanwhile Russia, the country that is held forth as an example for the West, has never managed to rival Western living standards at any time in its new, nearly 25-year existence. They were wrong a century ago, they're wrong now. You know what? I'm beginning to think that society's attitudes towards homosexuality might not be a determining factor in a nation's success.
Of course attacks based on tolerance of homosexuality only really work if you accept the homophobic worldview of these people. If you accept that the mere existence of a gay pride parade is somehow a threat, one which deserves more attention than say, police corruption or brutality, then you might find this popular Russian argument convincing.
I know that feeling because I come from a very religious, conservative background. In the opening phases of the so-called "culture wars" of the early 90's, conservative radio, literature, and television fed its audience endless horror stories about ever-younger children being taught about sex, and even homosexuality, by public schoolteachers. We were told that gays and lesbians were assaulting churches and "cruising" to "recruit" young boys and girls. The message was the same as Russian TV today- Our society is degenerating into chaos, without any kind of moral boundaries! Everything is spinning out of control! Sure, our society appears to be advancing more and more, but at what cost? I think the lyrics to the popular country song "Grandpa" by The Judds encapsulates this anxiety well.
Grandpa, everything is changing fast
We call it progress, but I just don't know
Did lovers really fall in love to stay
And stand beside each other come what may
The message is clear- Is all this advancement really progress? What about all those people getting divorced? It's the end of the traditional family! Just one problem. The divorce rate peaked in the 1980's and has been steadily declining since then. What is more, yes, many people used to stay married back in the "good old days" of the 1950's, but not necessarily out of choice. In those days, things like domestic violence and even physical or sexual child abuse were considered "private family matters." Even in less extreme cases, many women were forced by financial need to remain in loveless or even abusive marriages.
Getting back to the topic of gays, as a young man inundated with right-wing political propaganda on an almost daily basis, I couldn't help but wonder as to why I never saw any of these militant LGBT recruiters or rabid "feminazis" anywhere in my city. Eventually I ended up living in an area which was becoming gentrified by male gay couples. Strangely, I didn't find myself under constant threat of assault from these allegedly lust-stricken men. I even ended up working a summer job in an internet provider which was owned by gays, in a shopping center full of gay owned businesses. Number of guys who tried to hit on me or who even looked at me in what could be construed as a sexual manner: Zero. Zip. But more importantly, during that entire time, the presence of these gay people in my neighborhood was hardly noticeable. It's not like they were all hiding it, it's just that if you weren't specifically looking for them or deliberately taking notice, they really didn't stand out in your daily life. They were simply- there.
Now keep in mind I am from a rather conservative state. What about Western Europe? Well I've been told that Spain is the most gay friendly country on the continent, yet I wouldn't have known it from the time I spent there. I lived in cosmopolitan Prague for about half a year and failed to notice any significant presence of "gay propaganda." Germany's supposed to be pretty gay friendly but I couldn't base that on anything I saw there. Same deal with the UK. At no time in Europe did I ever find myself trying to cross a major street, only to realize that I could not because a gay parade was currently in progress. In fact, virtually every single time I have seen a photograph from a gay pride parade, it was posted by some right-winger, Russian or otherwise. If it weren't for them, I probably wouldn't even be able to imagine what a gay pride parade looks like, and it's not like I've ever made any deliberate effort to avoid them. If Russian propaganda were even remotely true, it seems probability would have dictated that my path cross that of a gay parade at least once, either in Europe or the United States.
By contrast, Russia's social problems are very hard to avoid. Even as a foreigner, you will run into the systemic corruption. Alcoholism and drug abuse are very public. You walk amid the broken down, decaying infrastructure every day. But the new Russian insta-patriot insists that none of this matters because there are no gay pride parades marching down the holed and crumbling streets. There's only one word to describe this attitude- idiocy.
This entry was posted in Uncategorized on March 17, 2015 by Jim Kovpak.
← If not Putin… Breaking the Stupidity Barrier →
26 thoughts on "Reductio ad Homosexualem"
Armands Bekmanis March 17, 2015 at 1:41 pm
I wonder why vatniks bother arguing with Western-puppets and degenerate supporters like you and me. I find it hilarious to read Alfred Koch`s posts of hysterical messages that he gets from vatniks,telling him how he should leave Russia along and stop critizing it.
Personally when I dont like something and it`s obvious that the person cant be be reasoned with – like that idiot Mark Sleboda – I just ignore it.
I think the issue is that some of these people were once, for lack of a better term, normal. I think via a combination of fear, normalcy bias, and the realization that they have no way out of Russia, many otherwise educated people are toeing the government's line in an effort to convince themselves that everything will work out.
jon March 17, 2015 at 2:55 pm
Last year I wrote about homosexuality in Russia. "Why Russians Think the Anti-Gay Law Is Right"
Take a read if you want. Hell, I've read enough of your stuff! 😉
http://www.columnf.com/why-russians-think-the-anti-gay-law-is-right/
Great article. Early Western reactions to the anti-gay propaganda law were totally ridiculous, and played right into the hands of Putin's propagandists. Sometimes Westerners fail to realize that only decades ago, many of the laws or views about LGBT people they can't fathom today were in force or at least popular in their own countries. The scientific advances that helped us understand human sexuality were not available to the Russians and many other nationalities until recently.
Another thing to point out is that when these issues appeared in Russian society, it happened at the worst time for most people. To them it all seemed like chaos, and on top of all the genuinely bad things they were witnessing, the West expected them to just spontaneously understand something like 20 missing years of psychological research into human sexuality.
Also about this line:
"Yesterday a Russian asked me, "What if you are wrong? What if our values make a better society?"
Oh I'd do ANYTHING to have been asked that question. My answer would be: "Well, they clearly don't."
That's what this all boils down to. If your values are right, than in 25 years(or more, since many of these people idolize the Soviet time as well), they should have produced that better society. How much more time should we give them to prove that a society which ignores massive corruption yet is obsessed with homosexuality is the healthiest option?
Bandersnatch March 17, 2015 at 5:21 pm
that was a good article. expansive and relevant.
Very very good, Jon.
On the history angle, I recall there being a significant gay presence in the early Bolshevik years (20s). This is some of the earliest organised gay 'movement' type activity, way before the US and comparable to in Germany. I can go look up but does memory serve me right on that?
This was hilarious and very on point and to my experiences as a big ol' homosexual while I was there. Actually for many Muscovites even broaching the topic elicits gasps and widened eyes. They really freak out. It always made me feel like an ambassador visiting a less civilized corner of the universe. Anyway, here are some examples of the arguments and fears they listed for me when I discussed it with students.
http://itsbosh.com/2014/11/06/russias-stupidly-gay-position-on-gays/
I can't resist the temptation to nit-pick… It would have to be "Reductio ad homosexualem", from a (pseudo-)latin adjective "homosexualis", which, as a third-declension adjective, would have its accusative case in -em. To decline it as if it were a -us adjective or noun isn't a good idea, since all adjectives in -al in English correspond to third-declension -alis adjectives in Latin… and this one would have to be the one exception.
The real Life of Brian!
Economists have convincingly argued that economic success for cities is tied to tolerance. There have been a few studies (and it makes a lot of sense). Also, many Western companies see non-discrimination and diversity policy as crucial to their success. You will see numerous Western conservatives making these points.
Having mentioned that 'science' can I query your earlier reference to science being involved in the progress of gay rights? i think the biggest influence in visibility, that most people know at least one gay person. This takes the notion of discrimination from the theoretical to the practical: you think that about *this person, your friend or colleague? This was Harvey Milk's argument: 'everyone must come out'.
On the Western reaction to the gay propaganda law reception/Sochi boycott etc. Back when I was actually writing I did this piece pointing out that instead of screaming and poring non-Russian vodka down drains that people should be supporting the Russian opposition to the law. [http://www.pinknews.co.uk/2013/09/11/comment-is-the-western-coverage-of-russian-lgbt-issues-missing-the-positive-angle/]
Lastly, one of the thing's I've noticed with the Russian mass culture I've seen (bits, from the UK) is the presence of screamingly camp entertainers. Same in Slavic places like Bulgaria and Serbia. I'm talking about obvious massive queens on primetime ( Sergey Lazarev). WTF is going on there? Is this like Liberace, that people somehow convince themselves that these people are non-sexual? Be most intrigued with your take on that, Jim.
It's not an illusion- Russian TV and Music is full of gay or at least very gay-looking celebrities. Russians are also huge fans of Eurovision, in spite of it's well known gay associations. How they reconcile this is beyond me.
All I can say is that Russia is like an entire country that's in the closet.
Oh, one other question.
Isn't there a certain cultural tolerance for homosexual activity in Russia, similar to that in other repressive countries? I'm talking about in the Church and the army. Am I way off base there?
In a way, yes. Women in particular often admit to either having same-sex experiences, or wanting/fantasizing about same-sex experiences.
Men have a prison-like view about homosexuality. They think that being a "top" means they're not gay.
Also, I should add that I once asked my Designated Expert on Gay Issues if Russia's cult of Putin was, as I suspected, blatantly homoerotic. In his expert opinion, the answer was yes, definitely.
That's evident for me in the blatant botox use/plastic surgery as much as the shirtlessness. this is not your grandparents butchness!
I also note that one should not reverse cause and effect… Even though countries with liberal policies tend to be richer, and countries with conservative policies poorer, we know that correlation does not imply causation, etc. etc. etc. Countries like China certainly exemplify the idea that you can get richer and improve average living standards despite not having liberal attitudes towards cultural/sexual minorities. Rather, it seems to me that it is economic success that sooner or later breeds the kind of atmosphere in which questioning the ruling assumptions becomes feasible and interesting (you don't really have time for that when the economy is bad and you have to do wonders just to guarantee food for your family). One often sees this phenomenon described as "decadence" (it's the stance the Putinbots take, certainly), but it actually is tolerance: the idea that, as long as our basic needs are met, there is really no reason for me to oppose you just because you like doing something I don't (be it anal sex or worshipping Ahura Mazda) — it all boils down to a question of taste. In harsher times, people hold on to their beliefs because it gives them the sensation of having something "real" in their hands: true, my economic situation may be piss-poor, but at least I have the truth and I "know" things would be much worse if our beloved flying spaghetti monster weren't blessing us evert dat with his noodly appendages or if we forgot to keep our food taboos — as demonstrated by the obvious "decadence" of those who don't. At least I can tell myself that, while I try to fall asleep despite the mosquitoes from the cracked walls and the hungry noises from the other people's bellies.
Basically, people tend to enjoy tolerance when they aren't under pressure from basic needs, and they tend to turn away from tolerance to find 'explanations' for their untolerable lives when they are.
Yes, one must be careful of this chicken and egg argument. For example, there is this ridiculous idea called the "democratic prosperity theory." Strangely, all "democratic" countries are treated alike, in spite of the fact that some are measurably more democratic than others. But the theories main failing is that it says that this ill-defined democracy leads to prosperity, instead of the more logical explanation that prosperity leads to more democracy or at least personal freedom.
Since you're here, oh wise Jim ,,,
How much of the homophobia is being deliberately generated, being deliberately stoked as a political tool?
I'm thinking of the very well funded anti-'gayropa' posters used against the Maidan, for example? Is some of this planned out by the Kremlin, not just coming from nutters like that St Petersberg MP and the Anita Bryant woman in the Duma?
I can only share some anecdotal evidence. For example, in 1999, I met with some 16 year old girls(I was also 16 at the time) who told me that they didn't care whether someone was gay. As a religious, conservative person at the time, I was appalled. Later, TaTu wrote a song where a girl laments over the fact that her crush prefers the same sex.
The hardcore conservatives were always working their schemes, but it was only in 2013 that the Kremlin stepped in and started catering directly to them. This is because once again, they saw people comparing Russia to Europe and the West, and Russia simply can't compete. That is unless you promote homophobia, because that's one major difference between the two.
Asehpe March 19, 2015 at 6:42 am
Yes, I always thought this was the main point of open homophobia in Russian politics. I mean, there had always been homophobia in Russia, but it didn't really stand out when compared to the rest of Eastern Europe: Estonians, Latvians, Lithuanians, Poles, Bulgars, Serbs &tc. can be just as homophobic as your favorite vatnik. But somehow, in their countries, homophobia never became a political or divisive issue, and it never tore those countries apart from Europe. Yes, there's the occasional outrage, look-what-the-Polish-minister-said-tothe-Danish-ambassador faux pas, but nothing that was really serious, with e.g. anti-European consequences. Only in Russia did it crystalize in this way — I think, precisely for the reason you point out: if you compare Europe to Russia from any other perspective, Russia loses by far. The only way to save the day is to claim that at least Russia has 'the right attitude on the gay question…' Sure, the Europeans' economic development looks wonderful and attractive, but the price we'd have to pay — giving up homophobia — is too high. Who wants to stop harassing gays and putting videos of said harassment on the internet? It's just too much fun, and it provides support for Orthodox Christian values…
Jim Kovpak Post author March 19, 2015 at 6:45 am
Yes, that message also resonates with Russia's allies in the far right abroad, throughout much of Europe and the US. In fact, there are American roots of this homophobic campaign. Look up Scott Lively, for example. Vatniks couldn't even make their own homophobic campaign without American help.
I think the Lively stuff was exaggerated – by Lively. He also tried it in other countries. Lively's been sent for trial for crimes against humanity under US alien tort law in a case brought by Ugandans btw.
From memory, the propoganda law came from below, from the regions, and it was for a while by no means certain it would go national. That points to some sort of Kremlin decision on its usefulness.
You could directly compare with, say, Lithuania or even Ukraine. The difference is that grassroots movements exist in those places and there's some sort of forward movement and there's no overwhelming sense that the state is targeting the movement. It's clearest in Lithuania, which certainly has plenty of religious nutter MPs like Milonov in St Petersberg.
Incidentally, and I don't think this is well known, the EU was prepared to drop the gay anti-discrimination bit of the agreement with Yatsenyuk's interlocutors a year.ago. So the EU isn't THAT gay …
Indeed, And the reactions some years ago to the Riga gay pride parade were certainly in agreement with the existence of homophone vatniks in many Eastern European countries… it's just that the Russian government decided to use the issue to its advantage, whereas in Latvia this didn't happen (see what happened when Minister Rinkevics came out as gay — a lot of prejudice, but also a lot of support from quite unexpected places).
I do remember something about Western missionaries teaming up with certain local forces in Latvia and creating a rather menacing anti-gay movement(which somehow manifested itself among immigrants who were possibly Russian in the US), yet that seems to have been a grass roots thing. That's opposed to Russia, where the state and not very separate church make it an official ideology, while state run media constantly tells everyone that in the EU, children are forced to practice homosexuality in kindergarten.
Ivan S March 23, 2015 at 3:39 am
It's worth adding, probably, that when people start crying about how society is "degenerating" and "decadent", when you check, there's a very big chance they are either religious fundamentalists, fascists or, if they are in a country where being either is not broadly acceptable, crypto-fundamentalists or crypto-fascists.
The unspoken implication is almost always that we need to be saved from ourselves and hard measures may have to be employed.
Yes, good point.

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> Klassisk musik CD. >Komponister>L>Andrew Lloyd Webber: A Classical Tribute. 1 CD. Decca
Andrew Lloyd Webber: A Classical Tribute. 1 CD. Decca
Reference 4780190 DH
Andrew Lloyd Webber: A Classical Tribute. Med José Carreras, Julian Lloyd Webber, Renée Flemming, Bryn Terfel, Sissel, Kiri te Kanawa, Katherine Jenkins, Lesley Garrett, og Richard Claydermann. Teknisk Fremragende optagelse. TF
1 CD. Decca. 4780190-2
Teknisk kvalitet TF - Teknisk Fremragende
1. Evita: Don't Cry for Me Argentina by Andrew Lloyd Webber
Performer: David Cullen (Electric Bass Guitar), Julian Lloyd Webber (Cello)
Conductor: Barry Wordsworth
Orchestra/Ensemble: Royal Philharmonic Orchestra
Written: 1976/1978; England
Length: 4 Minutes 37 Secs.
Notes: Arranger: David Cullen.
2. Cats: Memory by Andrew Lloyd Webber
Performer: José Carreras (Tenor)
Conductor: Robert Farnon
Orchestra/Ensemble: Robert Farnon Orchestra
Written: 1981; England
Notes: Arranger: Robert Farnon.
3. Phantom of the Opera: All I Ask of You by Andrew Lloyd Webber
Performer: Bryn Terfel (Bass), Ralph Salmins (Drums), Dave Hartley (Piano),
Renée Fleming (Soprano), Steve Pearce (Electric Bass Guitar)
Conductor: Paul Gemignani
Orchestra/Ensemble: Welsh National Opera Orchestra
Notes: Arrangers: Rob Mathes; Torrie Zito; David Hamilton.
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Performer: Paul Keogh (Guitar), Michael Copley (Recorder), Rod Argent (Synthesizer),
Julian Lloyd Webber (Cello), John Mole (Guitar)
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Performer: Sissel (Soprano)
Conductor: Ettore Stratta
Orchestra/Ensemble: London Symphony Orchestra
Notes: Arranger: Jorge Calandrelli.
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Performer: Dame Kiri Te Kanawa (Soprano)
Conductor: Stephen Barlow
Notes: Arranger: Chris Hazell.
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Performer: Julian Lloyd Webber (Cello), Paul Keogh (Guitar), Michael Copley (Recorder),
John Mole (Guitar)
8. Aspects of Love: Love Changes Everything by Andrew Lloyd Webber
Performer: Barbara Thompson (Flute), Jon Hiseman (Drums), Julian Lloyd Webber (Cello),
David Cullen (Electric Bass Guitar), David Cullen (Sequencer), David Cullen (Synthesizer),
Barbara Thompson (Saxophone)
Length: 3 Minutes 1 Secs.
9. Phantom of the Opera: Music of the Night by Andrew Lloyd Webber
Performer: Katherine Jenkins (Soprano)
Conductor: Anthony Inglis
Orchestra/Ensemble: Prague Sinfonia
10. Phantom of the Opera: The Phantom of the Opera by Andrew Lloyd Webber
Performer: Jon Hiseman (Drums), David Cullen (Electric Bass Guitar), David Cullen (Organ),
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Performer: Lesley Garrett (Soprano)
Conductor: Paul Bateman
Orchestra/Ensemble: Royal Philharmonic Pops Orchestra
12. Beautiful Game: All the Love I Have by Andrew Lloyd Webber
Performer: Dave Hartley (Piano), Renée Fleming (Soprano), Steve Pearce (Electric Bass Guitar),
Bryn Terfel (Bass), Ralph Salmins (Drums)
Written: England
Notes: Arrangers: Rob Mathes; Rob Mounsey; Torrie Zito.
13. Variations for Cello: Variations I - IV by Andrew Lloyd Webber
Performer: Barbara Thompson (Saxophone), Barbara Thompson (Flute), Julian Lloyd Webber (Cello),
Paul Keogh (Guitar), John Mole (Guitar), Rod Argent (Synthesizer),
Jon Hiseman (Drums)
14. Evita: Another Suitcase in Another Hall by Andrew Lloyd Webber
Performer: Richard Clayderman (Piano)
15. Starlight Express: Starlight Express by Andrew Lloyd Webber
Performer: David Cullen (Electric Bass Guitar), Paul Keogh (Guitar), Julian Lloyd Webber (Cello),
Rod Argent (Synthesizer), Paul Jones (Harmonica)
16. Aspects of Love: The First Man You Remember by Andrew Lloyd Webber
Performer: Barbara Thompson (Saxophone), Julian Lloyd Webber (Cello)
17. Song and Dance: Tell Me on a Sunday by Andrew Lloyd Webber
Performer: Julian Lloyd Webber (Cello)
Notes: Arranger: David Cullen
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ahmadiyyafactcheckblog
Mirza Ghulam Ahmad and Harsh Language towards his opponents, Esa (as), Muhammad (Saw) and all others
"Nabi-ullah Ka Zahoor" aka "Appearance of the Prophet of Allah" ( April of 1911) by Muhammad Zahir al-Din
In 1911, an Ahmadi, Muhammad Zahir Al-Din wrote a book wherein he discussed the prophethood of MGA and its implications of Kufr upon the Muslims of the world. Mahmud Ahmad quotes this book in his 1922 book, "The truth about the split" and Muhammad Ali has quoted him quite a bit also in his books vs. Mahmud Ahmad. Nonetheless, this book is totally missing from all records and archives in 2016. The book may still exist in the Khilafat Library at Rabwah or Qadian, or even in the UK. Per Muhammad Ali, this book seems to have been written in late 1910, and published in April of 1911 (see Muhammad Ali, "The Split" 1994 online edition). In this book, which runs to 120 pages, Zahir ud Din or Zahir Al-Din argued that MGA was a real prophet of Allah and thus Muhammad (Saw) was not the LAST prophet and additional prophets will continue to appear. However, he was kicked out of Ahmadiyya in June of 1912, about 14 months later and after some confusing correspondence. However, by August 1912, Zahir had repented and was allowed to re-enter the Ahmadiyya Movement at the hand of Noorudin, most likely via a letter of repentance (see Muhammad Ali, "The Split" 1994 online edition). The second part of the book was published on April 20th, 1913, it was only 12 pages and entitled, "Ahmad Rasul ul Allah, Ka Zahur", in english as : "Ahmad, the messenger of Allah, his appearance"(see Muhammad Ali, "The Split" 1994 online edition). In this book, he formulated a new Kalima for Ahmadi's, which replaced the word "Muhammad" from the Kalima with "Ahmad", which was a direct reference to (see Muhammad Ali, "The Split" 1994 online edition).
Yohanan Friedman direct quoted this book
Friedman's book on Ahmadiyya was published in 1985, it was published again in 1989 and then 2003. He seems to have had access to Zahir Al-Din's book in 1985.
The Direct Quotes
1. "His messengers (rusuluhu) is encountered in the Quran or in a declaration of faith, Ghulam Ahmad must be considered one of them. Belief in him is a part of Islamic faith and is, as such, necessary for the attainment of salvation (madar-i najat)" ("Nabi-ullah Ka Zahoor" aka "Appearance of the Prophet of Allah" (1911) by Muhammad Zahir al-Din, see pages 8, 71 and 99)(From Friedman, page 152, 2003 edition).
2. "If the Promised Messiah is rejected or considered in his claim (heaven forbid!) a liar and a cheat—the inevitable result will be the loss of prophethood of Muhammad….as well" ("Nabi-ullah Ka Zahoor": aka "Appearance of the Prophet of Allah" (1911) by Muhammad Zahir al-Din, see page 80)(From Friedman, page 152, 2003 edition).
TIMELINE INFO
Zahir ud Deen's book, "Nabi Ullah Ka Zahur" is published (see Muhammad Ali, "The Split" 1994 online edition). In fact, the Ahmadiyya newspaper, the Al-Badr published an advertisement for it's sales (See "Truth About the Split" by Mirza Basheer ud Din Mahmud Ahmad, the 2007 online english edition).
The urdu version of the Review of Religions praised Zahir ud Deen's book, in fact they even called him as a Munshi (See "Truth About the Split" by Mirza Basheer ud Din Mahmud Ahmad, the 2007 online english edition).
Noorudin writes a generalized announcement in the Al-Badr newspaper that some men are giving rise to dissensions. This seems to be about Maulvi Abdullah Timapuri and Maulvi Yar Muhammad(see Muhammad Ali, "The Split" 1994 online edition).
Per Mirza Basheer ud Din Mahmud Ahmad in June of 1912, Zahir Al-Din wrote a letter to the Khalifa asking whom the Jan-1912 announcement was about. Mirza Basheer ud Din Mahmud Ahmad reports that the Khalifa clarified that Zahir al-Din was good, the announcement was about Maulvi Yar Muhammad and Maulvi Abdullah Timapuri (See "Truth About the Split" by Mirza Basheer ud Din Mahmud Ahmad, the 2007 online english edition).
On July 11th, 1912, per Muhammad Ali, an announcement was published in the Al-Badr wherein Zahir Al- Din was officially ex-communicated by Noorudin (the Khalifa)(see Muhammad Ali, "The Split" 1994 online edition). The Khalifa called him Zaheer ud Din Arupi. Arupi is probably the name of the city or village that he was from in India (See "Truth About the Split" by Mirza Basheer ud Din Mahmud Ahmad, the 2007 online english edition).
Zahir had repented and was allowed to re-enter the Ahmadiyya Movement at the hand of Noorudin, most likely via a letter of repentance (see Muhammad Ali, "The Split" 1994 online edition).
In the issue of 14 OCT–1912, Zahir ud Din gets published in the Al-Badr in contempt vs. the Khalifa. He impertinently writes that he disagrees with the Khalifa on many beliefs (See "Truth About the Split" by Mirza Basheer ud Din Mahmud Ahmad, the 2007 online english edition).
The second part of his book was published on April 20th, 1913, it was only 12 pages and entitled, "Ahmad Rasul ul Allah, Ka Zahur", in english as : "Ahmad, the messenger of Allah, his appearance"(see Muhammad Ali, "The Split" 1994 online edition). In this book, he formulated a new Kalima for Ahmadi's, which replaced the word "Muhammad" from the Kalima with "Ahmad", which was a direct reference to (see Muhammad Ali, "The Split" 1994 online edition). the Khalifa, Mirza Basheer ud Din Mahmud Ahmad agrees that this book was published in April of 1913(See "Truth About the Split" by Mirza Basheer ud Din Mahmud Ahmad, the 2007 online english edition).
MAY-JUNE 1913
A newer Ahmadiyya newspaper, "Al-Haq" tells Ahmadi's to leave Zahir ud Din, Maulvi Yar Muhammad and Maulvi Abdullah Timapuri alone. The editor of this newspaper is Mir Qasim Ali. However, there was no official letter or announcement of ex-communication by the Khalifa, most likely because the Khalifa was out of commission based on his health. Nevertheless, there is no announcement of ex-communication by the Khalifa.
Zahir ud din was made a member of the advisory committee, which was formed at Lahore after the death of Noorudin (vide the Paigham-e-Sulh of 24th March, 1914) and his articles against the family Khilafat found a place in Maulawi Muhammad Ali's magazine called the Al-Mahdi (See "Truth About the Split" by Mirza Basheer ud Din Mahmud Ahmad, the 2007 online english edition).
Zahir ud Din was present at the Lahori-Ahmadi Jalsa of this year and was even allowed to speak (See "Truth About the Split" by Mirza Basheer ud Din Mahmud Ahmad, the 2007 online english edition).
Links and Related Essays
https://ahmadiyyafactcheckblog.com/2017/12/22/nabi-ullah-ka-zahoor-aka-the-appearance-of-the-prophet-of-allah-1911-by-muhammad-zahir-al-din/
https://ahmadiyyafactcheckblog.com/2017/01/04/nabi-ullah-ka-zahoor-aka-appearance-of-the-prophet-of-allah-1911-by-muhammad-zahir-al-din/
https://ahmadiyyafactcheckblog.com/2017/05/20/an-ahmadi-claimed-prophethood-in-late-1901-or-early-1902-and-was-boycotted-by-ahmadis-chiragh-din-of-jammu-jamooni/
http://www.aaiil.org/text/books/mga/correctionerrorekghaltikaizala/importantdocumentscorrectionerror.shtml
https://ahmadiyyafactcheckblog.wordpress.com/2016/10/16/the-causes-of-internal-dissensions-in-the-ahmadiyya-movement-by-kwaja-kamaluddin-1914/
https://ahmadiyyafactcheckblog.com/2018/08/01/prophethood-among-the-followers-of-muhammad-by-maulana-sayyid-muhammad-ahsan-of-amroha-oct-1913-in-tashhizul-azhan/
https://ahmadiyyafactcheckblog.com/2016/09/30/maulvi-abdul-kareem-claims-prophethood-per-mga-maulvi-amrohi-disagrees/
https://ahmadiyyafactcheckblog.com/2019/01/13/what-is-arbain-a-book-by-mga-and-his-team-of-writers/
https://ahmadiyyafactcheckblog.com/2018/04/23/in-1891-when-mga-made-his-big-claims-he-denied-prophethood-mufti-sadiq-was-heavily-involved/
https://ahmadiyyafactcheckblog.com/2017/12/09/mirza-ghulam-ahmad-was-accused-of-claiming-prophethood-in-the-1879-1884-era/
https://ahmadiyyafactcheckblog.com/2017/12/09/mirza-ghulam-ahmad-was-considered-a-kafir-in-1884-before-his-wild-claims/
https://ahmadiyyafactcheckblog.com/2017/12/26/some-rare-books-from-the-1901-1902-era-which-refute-mgas-claim-to-prophethood/
https://ahmadiyyafactcheckblog.com/2016/09/30/maulvi-sanuallah-acknowledges-that-mga-claimed-prophethood-in-nov-1901/
https://ahmadiyyafactcheckblog.com/2017/10/12/mirza-sultan-ahmad-son-of-hazrat-mirza-ghulam-ahmad-on-finality-of-prophethood/
https://ahmadiyyafactcheckblog.com/2016/12/11/eik-ghalti-ka-izala-aka-correction-of-an-error-was-re-published-on-march-1-1914/
https://ahmadiyyafactcheckblog.com/2017/01/16/hani-tahir-explains-mirza-ghulam-ahmads-prophethood-and-pre-1901-vs-post-1901/
https://ahmadiyyafactcheckblog.com/2017/11/21/a-few-months-after-becoming-khalifa-mirza-mahmud-ahmad-waffled-on-his-fathers-prophethood/
https://ahmadiyyafactcheckblog.com/2016/06/27/do-ahmadis-believe-in-the-same-kalima-as-muslims/
https://ahmadiyyafactcheckblog.com/2016/09/30/mga-explains-how-he-misunderstood-his-prophethood-in-1880-and-realized-it-later-on/
https://ahmadiyyafactcheckblog.com/2017/02/23/noorudin-didnt-care-if-mirza-ghulam-ahmad-claimed-even-law-bearing-prophethood/
#ahmadiyya #ahmadiyyatrueislam #ahmadiapartheid #Ahmadiyyat #rabwah #qadian #meetthekhalifa #muslimsforpeace #ahmadiyyafactcheckblog #nolifewithoutkhalifa #AhmadiMosqueattack #AhmadiyyaPersecution #Mosqueattack #trueislam #atifmian
9 thoughts on ""Nabi-ullah Ka Zahoor" aka "Appearance of the Prophet of Allah" ( April of 1911) by Muhammad Zahir al-Din"
From 1901 to roughly 1924 Ahmadis believed MGA=Muhammad – ahmadiyyafactcheckblog
""Nabi Ullah Ka Zahoor"" aka ""The Appearance of the prophet of allah"" 1911-by-muhammad-zahir-al-din – ahmadiyyafactcheckblog
"The utter extinction of Jihad" (1902) by Mirza Ghulam Ahmad – ahmadiyyafactcheckblog
In 1911, Abdullah Timapuri claimed to be the leader (Khalifa) of Ahmadi's – ahmadiyyafactcheckblog
Noorudin didn't care if Mirza Ghulam Ahmad claimed even law-bearing prophethood – ahmadiyyafactcheckblog
Who is Maulvi Yar Muhammad? – ahmadiyyafactcheckblog
"Jihad and the British Government" the original edition by Mirza Ghulam Ahmad (1900) in English – ahmadiyyafactcheckblog
Why did Mirza Ghulam Ahmad claim to be the second coming of Muhammad (saw)(nauzobillah)? – ahmadiyyafactcheckblog
#Ahmadis believe that 62:3 of the Quran announces that Mirza Ghulam Ahmad is the second coming of Muhammad (saw)(Nauzobillah) – ahmadiyyafactcheckblog


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The Rise Of The Family Office: Where Do They Go Beyond 2019?
Francois Botha Contributor
I help family offices and banks solve strategy problems and innovate.
Moving beyond 2019, both single- and multi-family offices will continue to expand their focus to include much more than just wealth management, legal and governance.
The key to success is having very deep, involved relationships and understanding of clients
Family offices are moving out of the stuffy boardrooms and starting to become agile forces to be... [+] reckoned with.
There has been a significant increase in the number of family offices globally over the last ten years and this trend is expected to continue. EY estimates that there are currently 10,000 single-family offices, a ten-fold increase since 2008. Even more impressive is the sheer amount of wealth being managed by these firms. Research conducted by Dominic Samuelson, CEO of Campden Wealth, suggests family offices currently hold assets in excess of $4 trillion. Family offices are now capable of making transactions that were traditionally reserved for big companies or private-equity firms and therefore are becoming a disruptive force in the market-place. This trend has received growing attention from large investment banks, who have moved to appoint senior bankers to manage family offices. There have even been strategic shifts within the hedge fund industry, The Wall Street Journal reports that since 2011, "three dozen hedge funds have converted into family offices." In the same article, Ward McNally sums up the family office phenomenon quite neatly by saying that they are "as quiet as you possibly could find", but "they're writing extremely large checks." It is clear that family offices have become a force to be reckoned with.
What Exactly Is A Family Office?
Even today the term "family office" is still one that can be used in many different contexts and carries a variety of different meanings. The family office was initially created to look after the wealth of ultra high net worth families. But the modern-day family office does far more than that. Martin Graham, Chairman of Oracle Capital Group, explains how family offices have evolved to be a one-stop shop.
We work with anything from help with immigration, finding a property to live in, getting children into school, setting up charitable foundations, or project finance. And then, critically, we do a lot of wealth structuring: preserving wealth within and between generations by using things like family trusts and foundations. And on top of that, we also do asset management.
There are two main variants of family offices that have emerged: The single family office and multi-family office. The former is the traditional family office that serves as an advisory and wealth-management firm supporting one ultra high net worth family. The latter serves multiple families, and this format is becoming increasingly popular. Even the original Rockefeller family office now has over 250 clients.
How Did Family Offices Come About?
Most agree that the origins of the family office were European, with the concept being developed and formalized in the U.S. by the House of Morgan and the Rockefellers soon after. Wealth management was the most significant driver, and therefore it is not surprising to see the proliferation in family offices over the last few years as the number of billionaires grows, and the time taken to make significant amounts of money decreases. Other drivers include global volatility, new types of investment options and the focus on multi-generational wealth preservation, all requiring specialist advice. "We saw a growing demand for advice and expertise arising from direct investments," said Michael Maslinski, Partner at Stonehage Fleming. "This was compounded by increasingly complex regulations, a more litigious society and the risks of an unstable global economy." Commenting on long-term wealth preservation, Maslinski says: "For most families, the biggest risks they face are in the management of succession and intergenerational transfer. The practicalities of handover frequently impact both on the decision-making process and the decisions themselves, particularly where specialist assets are involved."
Moving beyond 2019, both single- and multi-family offices will continue to expand their focus to include much more than just wealth management, legal and governance. Other main areas that will see a lot of attention include working toward real-time consolidated reporting, developing soft factors like defining a clear mission and purpose and negating new risks like the complex universe of cybersecurity.
The rise of the family office is set to continue, along with plenty of changes expected within this sector. "We will see a move towards greater professionalization of the family office," says Maslinski.
Family offices today must prepare to give advice on an ever-broader range of issues and, as such, need to ensure that they have the appropriate resources to meet this new demand. The objectives and role of the family office will need to be more clear than in the past.
Graham adds: "I'm convinced that a lot of people won't be in this business in the long term because they don't follow a client-led approach. The key to success is having very deep, involved relationships and understanding of clients , and being able to provide increasingly sophisticated services in a way, tailored to client needs."
The combination of continued global uncertainty and new wealth sets the scene for sustained growth of the family office sector. As requirements become more complex and holistic, we can expect to see the family office offering evolve to include a renewed focus those elements that will help build strong family brands and manage solid reputations.
Follow me on Twitter or LinkedIn. Check out my website or some of my other work here.
Francois Botha
I help design and build the family offices of the future. Starting with soft assets, we help plan for continued family involvement over the coming generations and build


The Essex two independent residential condominium towers with shared amenities governed by a Shared Facilities Agreement. Across Viking Lane to the south are the three neighbours, Nuvo 1, Nuvo 2 two separate corporations also with shared amenities. Parc Nuvo is the fifth separate residential condominium corporation sharing the Essex site. All five corporations are contractually obligated in the maintenance of Viking Lane as a public throughfare, through a Shared Roadway / Walkway Agreement. All five buildings were built by Tridel.
The Essex site is served by an adjacent public park to the east, currently referred to as Six Points Park. Usage of Six Points Park is subject to rules established by the City of Toronto. The Essex is blessed with a host of amenities. Essex Recreation Centre is open at 5am to 12 midnight, 7 days a week. Most amenities are located on the P1 level. The barbeque is located in the gazebo to the rear of building 1. Visitor parking is at street level between Essex 1 and Essex 2 and on the P1 level accessible from Dundas street and exiting onto Viking Lane.


text:
NIIT pledges to support Ghana's ICT Development
Thread: NIIT pledges to support Ghana's ICT Development
6th August 2010, 02:14 PM #1
The National Institute of Information Technology, (NIIT), has put in place a plan to support Ghana 's strategic human resource development through Information and Communication Technology (ICT) training.
Mr. Vivek Verma, a general manager of NIIT, said this at the second annual graduation ceremony of the Takoradi Campus of the Institute, at Takoradi.
A total of 52 students, who undertook various ICT courses for one and half years and two years, were presented with diplomas, at the ceremony.
The ceremony, which formed part of the activities marking the 10th anniversary celebration of NIIT, Ghana , was under the theme: "Ten years of Quality Computer Education in Ghana ."
Mr. Verma said the plan is line with the country's ICT programme, which as defined in the Ghana Poverty Reduction Strategy. It is intended to drive the national development agenda, facilitate poverty reduction and enhance wealth creation.
He said under the plan, the Institute would extend ICT training to various parts of the country and very soon, the Institute's Northern Region training campus would be opened, at Tamale, to facilitate the study of ICT in the North.
He said the Institute would also extend its operation to some neighbouring countries.
Mr. Verma said ICT has become an essential tool for the economic growth and advancement of many countries and should be embraced in the country.
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