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London, 27 February 2020
How long is the medium term?Monetary policy in a low inflation environment
Speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Barclays International Monetary Policy Forum
We are currently living through times of tremendous challenges for the conduct of monetary policy.
Although the actions of major central banks over the past few years have succeeded in easing financial conditions and thereby stabilising growth and inflation, current and expected inflation rates remain stubbornly below target, in spite of years of exceptional monetary policy support.
Subdued price pressures have given rise to widespread scepticism about the ability of monetary policy to bring inflation back to target. While it is widely accepted that central banks cannot fine-tune inflation in the short term, some now even doubt their ability to reach their objective in the medium term.
Today I would like to speak to these concerns by shedding light on some factors that may impede a more forceful and rapid return of inflation to levels closer to 2%, focusing on the euro area.
I will argue that the nature and properties of the shocks that have been hitting the euro area over the past few years require central banks to exercise more patience in reaching their inflation aim, in particular when approaching the effective lower bound. This implies that the medium-term horizon over which the ECB pursues the sustainable alignment of inflation with its aim is considerably longer than in the past.
Communication on the factors affecting the length of the medium term increases the public's understanding of the ECB's monetary policy, thereby also reducing the risks of a destabilisation of inflation expectations.
A shock-dependant monetary policy
In calibrating monetary policy, central banks typically distinguish between two broad types of shocks affecting the inflation outlook.
The first type is demand shocks, which pull both output and inflation in the same direction. The euro area sovereign debt crisis is a good example. As credit conditions tightened in parts of the euro area, both the public and private sector cut back sharply on spending, thereby pushing down prices and wages.
Such demand shocks typically call for determined policy action. By acting swiftly and forcefully, central banks minimise the adverse impact of a decline in consumption and investment on prices and wages.
Supply shocks – the second type – are different, as they typically pull inflation and output in opposite directions. A sharp exogenous increase in oil prices, for example, pushes inflation up while harming growth and employment.
To minimise volatility in economic activity, supply shocks therefore usually require a smoother and more protracted policy response.
The implication is that central banks generally choose to bring inflation back to their aim over horizons of different length. The choice of the horizon, in turn, depends, among other things, on the nature, size and persistence of the shocks hitting the economy, as well as on the speed and scope of the transmission of monetary impulses to prices and wages, which may vary with the use of different instruments.
Supply-side shocks typically imply longer horizons than demand-side shocks. And while central banks can usually afford to "look through" temporary shocks, more persistent shocks that risk destabilising inflation expectations may require a shorter horizon. I will come back to this later.
For the ECB, this means that the length of the "medium term" – which is an integral part of its definition of price stability – will vary over time.
In reality, of course, economies are constantly hit by a wide variety of shocks, and central banks often have only a limited understanding of the precise configuration of the forces pushing inflation in either direction, which complicates the conduct of monetary policy.
Over the past few weeks, for example, the dramatic events around the spread of the coronavirus have increased uncertainty about the global growth outlook, and also the outlook for the euro area. But very little is yet known about the potential medium-term implications.
Today I will focus on other, more slow-moving structural factors that may influence the transmission of monetary policy to inflation.
I will start from the question as to why inflation has not seen more persistent upward pressure despite years of exceptional monetary stimulus.
There are several competing hypotheses.
The first hypothesis is that unconventional policy instruments have been ineffective. Although we have not yet heard the final word on this topic, in my opinion the available empirical evidence broadly dismisses this view.[1]
The use of these instruments has substantially loosened financing conditions, with beneficial effects for economic growth, employment and inflation.
Chart 1
Unconventional policy instruments had considerable positive impact
Source: ECB calculations. Notes: The calculations are based on estimates by Eurosystem experts and the estimates in Rostagno et al. (2019). The estimates of Eurosystem experts are based on various modelling methods, from purely structural models to time series models.
A second hypothesis is that economic slack may still be larger than conventional indicators suggest.
Estimates by international organisations suggest that slack in the euro area has diminished measurably over the past few years and that, by and large, the output gap in the euro area has closed.
Chart 2 a
Uncertainty over the remaining degree of economic slack…
Euro area output gap
(in percent of potential output)
Sources: European Commission, IMF, OECDLast observations: 2022 (IMF); 2021 (EC, OECD).
Alternative measures of the output gap paint a different picture, however.
Chart 2 b
Source: Jarocinski, M. and M. Lenza (2018), "An inflation-predicting measure of the output gap in the euro area", Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, vol. 50(6), pp. 1189-1224.
ECB staff, for example, have developed an indicator, based on a large set of economic variables, that outperforms other measures in its ability to forecast underlying inflation out of sample. Clearly, this measure would point to continued substantial slack in the euro area economy.
But such indicators come with two caveats.
The first is that they "reverse engineer" – that is, inflation, or the lack thereof, is always and everywhere attributed to economic slack.
And the second caveat is that they are difficult to reconcile with both survey-based and hard data-based indicators of slack in the labour market, which even point to growing signs of labour shortages.
…but growing signs of shortages in labour markets
Importantly, improvements in the labour market have not been confined to headline unemployment. Over the past few years we have observed a marked decline in the number of discouraged workers and underemployed part-time workers (Slide 3, left panel). ECB estimates suggest that current broad labour market conditions do not differ much from those observed just before the outbreak of the global financial crisis.
The question, then, is why inflation remains so muted, which brings me to the third hypothesis: the view that other, mostly supply-side factors may currently be weighing on inflation.
Phillips curve estimates by ECB staff visualise this idea.
Reduction of slack putting upward pressure on wages and prices
These estimates, which are based on a large number of economic activity indicators, suggest that the erosion of economic slack – the yellow bars – has progressively contributed to pushing up both wages and prices.
At the same time, however, these estimates currently leave a large part of underlying inflation unexplained.
It is possible that these residuals reflect measurement errors, for example regarding economic slack. But they may also reflect, at least in part, other structural factors that are more difficult to identify and quantify.
One way to gauge the potential role of these factors is to analyse the wealth of available financial market data, focusing on inflation expectations rather than actual inflation.
Supply shocks likely contributed to decline in market-based inflation expectations
Drivers of developments in the 10-year euro area inflation-linked swap
(% p.a., cumulative changes)
Sources: ECB calculations.Notes: The model is a four variable BVAR containing the 10-year real OIS rate, the 10-year ILS rate, equity prices, and the nominal effective exchange rate. It is identified using sign restrictions at impact and is estimated using daily data over the period 2005-2019. The chart shows the cumulative changes in the 10-year ILS since July 2005, and the contributions of the four underlying factors. Latest observation: 18 February 2020.
The exercise shown here imposes sign restrictions on cross-asset price correlations of bonds, equities, exchange rates and inflation swaps to extract signals about the potential drivers of the cumulative changes in ten-year inflation-linked swaps since 2005.
Clearly, according to this methodology, a significant part of the decline in long-term inflation expectations has been due to the weakening in aggregate demand – the yellow area – at the time of the sovereign debt crisis, and again in 2018 on the back of the deterioration in the global growth outlook.
But you can also see that a substantial part of the cumulative decline in inflation expectations may be due to supply-side factors. Indeed, in the hypothetical absence of these supply-side shocks, ten-year inflation-linked swaps could currently be trading at levels much closer to 2%.
Counterfactual path of the 10-year euro area inflation-linked swap in the absence of supply-side drivers
(percentages per annum)
Sources: ECB calculations.Notes: The model is a four variable BVAR containing the 10-year real OIS rate, the EA 10-year ILS rate, EA equity prices, and the nominal effective exchange rate. It is identified using sign restrictions at impact. Latest observation: 18 February 2020.
In other words, their effects are potentially meaningful in quantitative terms.
These shocks are likely to reflect a variety of structural factors which may differ as to how, and to what extent, they affect inflation over time. Collectively, however, they are likely to explain part of the protracted weakness in inflation.
I would like to discuss two such structural factors and their potential implications for the ECB's medium-term horizon.
The first factor relates to changes in the energy sector, in particular the pervasive effects of the shale oil revolution and changes to the transmission of oil price shocks. And the second factor relates to the pricing behaviour of firms and their ability to buffer cost-push shocks through changes in their profit margins.
The changing role of energy in inflation dynamics
The rise in energy prices was a prime contributor to euro area HICP inflation before the outbreak of the global financial crisis.
Marked fall in the contribution of energy to headline inflation
Shares of the main HICP aggregates in average HICP inflation
(percentage)
Source: Eurostat and ECB calculations
It accounted, on average, for 23% of headline inflation in the ten years from 1999 to 2008.
Since then, the contribution of energy has fallen to 14%, on average. And over the past five years, the average contribution has dropped to zero. So the measurable and persistent decline in the contribution of energy prices to inflation has been one major source of low inflation in recent years.
What is less clear, however, are the causes of the fall in the contribution of energy price inflation and whether the effects can be expected to persist in the future.
Energy inflation has so far been predominantly driven by the price of oil, which fluctuates in line with supply and demand.
For monetary policy, the distinction between supply and demand matters much along the same lines I described before. Falling oil prices, for example, are often a symptom of a broader weakness in global aggregate demand, in which case they send important signals for monetary policy in real time.
Since about 2014, however, model-based analysis has suggested that the predominant source of the decline in oil prices is likely to reflect supply-side factors.
Overhang in oil inventories weighing on oil prices
Oil price decomposition
(cumulative contributions to changes in oil price since January 2010; oil price in USD per barrel)
Source: Bloomberg, Haver Analytics, IEA and ECB staff calculations.Notes: The decomposition is derived from a monthly structural BVAR model with sign restrictions. The model decomposes the average Brent spot oil price, global oil production and global economic activity and identifies three shocks: i) aggregate demand shocks are identified by an increase in prices, production and activity; ii) precautionary demand shocks are identified by an increase in prices and production and a decrease in activity; iii) supply shocks are identified by an increase in prices and a decrease in production and activity.
Another way to see this is to consider the strong surge in oil inventories among OECD countries.
OECD oil inventories and oil price
(lhs: billion barrels, rhs: USD per barrel, inverted)
Sources: Bloomberg, IEA and ECB staff calculations.Latest observation: Jan-2020 (spot) and Dec-2019 (inventories).
Oil inventories typically correlate closely, and negatively, with oil prices.
One of the key factors behind the rise in inventories was the initial decision by traditional oil-producing economies to abandon production targets, and hence to put downward pressure on oil prices, in response to the unprecedented surge in shale oil production in the United States that took off at the beginning of the past decade.
Over this period, the United States has emerged as the largest oil producer in the world, and it now accounts for nearly one-fifth of total global oil output.[2]
Shale oil break-even prices may anchor oil price expectations
Market share of major oil producers
(percent)
Sources: IEA and ECB staff calculations.Latest observation: January 2020.
There are signs that the rise of the United States as a major oil producer may have fundamentally changed market expectations of the long-run equilibrium price of oil.
Over recent years, we have observed an interesting correlation between future expected oil prices and the evolution of the break-even price of shale oil producers, i.e. the price above which it becomes profitable to exploit new sources of shale oil. All else being equal, market participants expect oil prices to converge towards the expected marginal cost of supply.[3]
Oil production break-evens and long-term oil price expectations
(USD per barrel)
Sources: Dallas Fed, Kansas Fed and Bloomberg.Notes: Dallas Fed data is yearly, Kansas Fed data is bi-yearly.Latest observation: January 2020.
At face value, this anchoring role of the break-even price could suggest that investors consider the shale oil revolution to have structurally changed the elasticity of oil supply to demand fluctuations, and hence to have put an effective ceiling on oil prices.
Whether or not the oil supply has indeed become more elastic, and may therefore permanently reduce the upside contribution of energy to headline inflation, is, ultimately, an empirical question.[4]
But more fundamentally, changes in the oil market have been accompanied by equally far-reaching changes in the use of oil as a production input.
Over the past few decades, technological advances and shifts in the energy and industry composition in advanced economies have gradually reduced the sensitivity of growth and, hence, underlying inflation, to oil price increases.
For example, between 1990 and 2018, global oil intensity – total oil consumption per unit of gross domestic product – fell by 25%.
Global economy more resilient to oil price shocks
Oil intensity
(oil consumption (mbd) per GDP in constant prices)
Sources: IEA, Haver Analytics and ECB staff calculations.Latest observation: 2018.
ECB staff analysis suggests that, as a result, a supply-induced increase in oil prices today causes global industrial production to contract by only around half as much as it did during the 1990s and 2000s.
Response of global industrial production to oil supply shocks
(impulse responses to shock after 48 months; median and 15th and 85th percentiles, percentage points)
Sources: IEA, FRED and ECB staff calculations.Notes: The response is estimated using a SVAR with sign restrictions. The oil supply shock is identified assuming that it lowers oil production and industrial production but raises the price of oil. The responses are calibrated to a 10 percent shock to the price of oil.
The muted response of financial markets to the tensions in the Middle East around the turn of the year would be consistent with these findings.
These trends could even intensify in the future in the course of the ongoing energy transition.[5]
In the European Union, for example, the objective is to further reduce energy consumption by one-third by 2030, and to increase the use of renewable energy sources.[6] If successful, this would further mitigate the pass-through of potential oil price fluctuations to production and, hence, underlying inflation.[7]
Moreover, if more fundamental progress is achieved in terms of energy storage, the marginal cost of producing renewable energy may become considerably lower and more stable compared with the production of fossil fuels. This could much more fundamentally transform the role of energy in affecting overall price dynamics.[8]
Taken together, persistent supply shocks of this nature potentially pose a dilemma for monetary policy in the sense that improved energy efficiency and more stable oil prices have supported, and continue to support, consumption and investment, but risk entrenching expectations of low inflation.
In this case, central banks may no longer be able to afford to "look through" such shocks, and may be forced to shorten the horizon over which inflation should be brought back to their aim.
This trade-off is even more problematic in the vicinity of the effective lower bound, for at least two reasons.
The first, and most obvious, is because policy space is reduced. The second is that a more intense usage of non-standard policy measures, such as negative interest rates or asset purchases, may shift the balance of the costs and benefits of providing an additional unit of monetary accommodation.
The implication of this is that, today more than ever, central banks need to have a solid understanding of how inflation expectations ultimately affect the inflation outlook and which expectations are at play. This question is an integral part of the ECB's ongoing strategy review.
If, for example, market-based inflation expectations prove to have only a marginal effect on actual inflation, then the case for central banks acting on these measures is weakened substantially, even if they signal rising discomfort about future inflationary pressures.
The role of profits in the transmission of monetary policy
The second structural factor that I would like to discuss today relates to the role of profit margins in affecting inflation outcomes and the transmission of monetary policy.
It is well-known that many firms routinely absorb short-term fluctuations in demand, exchange rates or production costs in their profit margins.
In the euro area, for example, there is substantial variation in profit margins over time.
Chart 10 a
Variations in profit margins affect inflation dynamics
GDP deflator and components
(annual percentage changes, pp contributions)
Sources: Eurostat and ECB calculations.
A model-based assessment by ECB staff shows that demand shocks – both domestic and foreign – and changes in oil prices are prime sources of fluctuations in profit margins.
Chart 10 b
Structural decomposition of unit profits
(deviations from mean in y-o-y terms and pp contributions)
Sources: ECB staff calculations. Hahn, E (2019), "A model-based interpretation of the drivers of recent and projected euro area profit margin developments", ECB, mimeo.Notes: Historical decomposition of unit profit growth from a BVAR model in which domestic and foreign demand shocks, wage-mark up shocks and oil supply shocks are identified via sign restrictions.
An issue that is less well understood, however, is whether this buffering role of profit margins has changed over time – that is, whether structural changes in the profitability of firms have increased or reduced the role of profits in affecting aggregate price dynamics.
My starting point for answering this question is the evolution of the profit share over time. You can see that the profit share has increased substantially, both in the euro area and the United States.[9]
Structural rise in profit share and number of highly profitable firms
Profit shares in the euro area and the United States
(percentages)
Sources: Eurostat, Area Wide Model database, OECD and ECB calculations.Notes: The profit shares are calculated as the share of gross operating surplus over gross operating surplus plus compensation of employees. Gross operating surplus is corrected for the self-employed.
In the euro area, it has increased from an average level of 25% in the 1970s to 37% today, and it has increased by even more than in the United States over this period.
This rise has not been sudden. It has rather been a gradual and persistent increase that only came to a halt with the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008.
Macroeconomic data are often only a very crude proxy of net entrepreneurial income. But microdata corroborate the view that aggregate profitability is likely to have increased structurally over time.[10]
Profitability of firms in the euro area
(percentage of firms)
Sources: Orbis Global – Bureau van Dijk micro-data and ECB calculations.Notes: Percentage of firms grouped by profit margin level: Very Positive(>5%), Positive(0 to 5%), Negative (-5 to 0%), Negative (<-5%). Profit margins are calculated as profits over revenue where in the calculation of profits all expenses are taken into account, including material and labour costs as well as interest, taxes and other operating expenses. The micro-data include non-financial firms with at least 10 years in the panel and aggregate economy output coverage of 50-70% on average. The between country weighting is done using GDP weights.
The share of euro area firms with very high profitability – here measured as firms displaying a ratio of profits over revenues of greater than 5% – has increased by around 10 percentage points, to 42%, since 1995. At the same time, the share of firms with very low profitability has declined.
Two broad competing hypotheses have been proposed in the literature to explain the rise in profits, mainly for the case of the United States. One is that growing profits are the result of the rise of highly productive "superstar firms". The other hypothesis, which is less favourable, is that a gradual decline in competition and increased regulation has protected rent-seeking firms.[11]
A more detailed discussion of these hypotheses is beyond the scope of my remarks today. I will rather focus on what the rise in profits may imply for the pass-through of monetary policy to inflation.
I see two broad repercussions.
The first is rather mechanical but quantitatively important. Rising profits imply a lower labour share, so changes in labour costs have less direct impact on inflation than they did two or three decades ago.
The second, and related, implication is that higher profit margins provide a larger cushion for firms to absorb cost-push shocks, such as wage increases.
A staff analysis using the ECB's workhorse structural model, the New Area-Wide Model, supports the view that profit margins were, and are, being used to cushion emerging price pressures.[12]
Chart 12
Profit margins buffer upside shocks to inflation
Decomposition of euro area HICP inflation based on the New Area-Wide Model II
(annual rates, deviations from model-implied steady state of 1.9% in pp)
Notes: The chart presents the decomposition of euro area HICP inflation into structural shocks based on the New Area-Wide Model (NAWM) II. The mark-up shock group consists of the shocks to the wage mark-up, the domestic price and export price mark-ups, as well as the import price mark-up. The supply shock group comprises the persistent and the transitory component of the model's permanent technology shock, and the transitory technology shock. The demand and financial shock group includes the shocks to government consumption, import demand, export demand preferences, monetary policy, as well as the domestic and external risk premium shocks, the shock to the survival rate of the wholesale banks, and the shock to the mark-down parameter of the retail banks. The "Other" shock group comprises the investment-specific technology shock, shocks to foreign variables, measurement errors, and shocks in bridge equations. See Coenen, G., Karadi, P., Schmidt, S. and Warne, A. (2018), "The New Area-Wide Model II: an extended version of the ECB's micro-founded model for forecasting and policy analysis with a financial sector", ECB Working Paper No 2200.
Since the introduction of the euro, mark-up shocks – that is, changes in profit margins – (green bars) have never played a larger and more persistent role in mitigating upward pressure on inflation than they do today.
This does not mean that the pass-through of changes in demand and production costs to final consumer prices is generally impaired. Rather, it means that the lags with which they are transmitted may be longer and more variable.
Recent ECB research has confirmed that there is a robust link between changes in labour costs and price inflation in the euro area.[13] But it also highlights that this link is state and shock-dependant. In an environment of weak demand, for example, firms tend to absorb cost-push shocks by compressing their price mark-ups.
The implication is that today, as compared with the 1970s, 1980s or 1990s, the structural rise in profit margins allows firms to buffer shocks over a longer horizon. The current resilience in underlying inflation, despite the marked increase in wage growth, may be less surprising in the light of these findings.
ECB research indeed confirms that the role of profits may have changed more fundamentally over time.[14]
Changing the role of profits in absorbing wage shocks
Source: Hahn, E. (2019), "How are wage developments passed through to prices in the euro area? Evidence from a BVAR model", Applied Economics, published online 1 November 2019. Notes: The x-axis refers to the quarters since the shock. The magnitude of the shock is normalised to a 1% increase in compensation per employee over the first four quarters. It is assumed that indirect taxes net of subsidies respond proportionally to real GDP such that this component does not contribute to the changes in the GDP deflator.
This research analyses the response of the GDP deflator, for three different sub-samples, to a 1% increase in compensation per employee. According to this research, profits only started to take on a measurable buffering role over the past 20 years. In the 1970s, by contrast, profits even slightly increased in the face of a labour cost-push shock.
These changes may, of course, reflect a number of factors.
One factor could relate to the level of inflation because the secular decline in inflation over time may have reduced the perceived persistence of cost-push shocks and thus have raised the willingness of firms to absorb these shocks through changes in profit margins.[15]
Another factor may relate to changes in the degree of competition.
Digitalisation and growing price transparency through the internet may be increasingly limiting the ability of firms to pass through changes in costs to final consumer prices.[16] Research shows, for example, that price levels on websites and physical stores are identical 72% of the time.[17]
The point worth noting here, however, is that the marked secular rise in profits is likely to have expanded the room for manoeuvre of the rising share of very profitable firms to cope with such structural changes. It could thus have contributed to the changing role of margins in the propagation of cost-push shocks.
For central banks, this means that the effects of monetary policy may, at times, take longer to show through in underlying inflation, in particular in periods of elevated uncertainty.
It also means that profit margins may currently operate like a benign supply-side shock: they lift output but they suppress inflation.[18]
Mark-up shocks act like benign supply-side shocks
Decomposition of euro area real GDP based on the New Area-Wide Model II
(annual rates, deviations from model-implied steady state in pp)
Notes: The figure presents the decomposition of euro area real GDP into structural shocks based on the New Area-Wide Model (NAWM) II. The mark-up shock group consists of the shocks to the wage mark-up, the domestic price and export price mark-ups, as well as the import price mark-up. The supply shock group comprises the persistent and the transitory component of the model's permanent technology shock, and the transitory technology shock. The demand and financial shock group includes the shocks to government consumption, import demand, export demand preferences, monetary policy, as well as the domestic and external risk premium shocks, the shock to the survival rate of the wholesale banks, and the shock to the mark-down parameter of the retail banks. The "Other" shock group comprises the investment-specific technology shock, shocks to foreign variables, measurement errors, and shocks in bridge equations. See Coenen, G., Karadi, P., Schmidt, S. and Warne, A. (2018), "The New Area-Wide Model II: an extended version of the ECB's micro-founded model for forecasting and policy analysis with a financial sector", ECB Working Paper No 2200.
And this supply-side nature of changes in profit margins implies that the policy-relevant horizon over which policymakers should steer inflation back to their aim is longer than it would have been in the absence of such structural changes, similar to the effects of the shale oil revolution.
Let me conclude.
The ECB aims to reach its inflation aim of below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. How long the medium term is depends on various factors, including the nature, size and persistence of economic shocks.
The current highly accommodative monetary policy stance has succeeded in materially shortening the horizon over which inflation will return to levels closer to 2%. Current and expected inflation rates, however, remain well below target.
I have argued that at least two structural factors – the changed role of energy inflation and the cushioning effect of higher profit margins – have weighed on underlying price pressures.
Such sizeable and persistent supply-side shocks pose a dilemma for central banks. On the one hand, they call for a lengthening of the horizon over which the ECB should steer inflation back to its aim. On the other hand, central banks are limited in the extent to which they can ignore such shocks without risking a destabilisation of inflation expectations.
This trade-off is particularly stark in the vicinity of the effective lower bound, where attempting to further shorten the horizon by easing financial conditions carries the risk of shifting the balance of the costs and benefits of a highly accommodative monetary policy stance by increasing risks to financial stability.
In this environment, it is imperative for central banks to have a solid understanding of the potential risks of second-round effects, which includes a thorough assessment of how, and which, inflation expectations affect actual inflation outcomes, as well as of the side effects of unconventional monetary policy measures, in particular as regards financial stability.
These efforts will be an important part of the ECB's ongoing strategy review.
[1]See, for example, Altavilla, C., Carboni, G. and Motto, R. (2015), "Asset purchase programmes and financial markets: lessons from the euro area", Working Paper Series, No 1864, ECB, November; Andrade, P., Breckenfelder, J., De Fiore, F., Karadi, P. and Tristani, O. (2016), "The ECB's asset purchase programme: an early assessment", Working Paper Series, No 1956, ECB, September; and Blattner, T.S. and Joyce, M. (2020), "The Euro Area Bond Free Float and the Implications for QE", Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, available online.
[2]Despite an agreement among the members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC countries, such as Russia and Mexico, to reduce excess inventories, compliance with agreed production cuts has been fragile at best, in particular in non-OPEC countries. Current oil inventories remain well above, and are even migrating further away from, the agreed target that has been defined as the average inventory level reached between 2010 and 2014.
[3]See also Patel, K. and Plante, M.D. (2019), "Breakeven Oil Prices Underscore Shale's Impact on the Market," Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic analysis and insights. It should be noted that actual break-even rates vary widely between regions. Moreover, the consolidation in the shale industry, which had taken place between 2011 and 2014, as well as technological advances now allow US producers to easily stop and reactivate production, meaning that US producers would likely add to supply even if current inventories were to be effectively reduced.
[4]See, for example, Foroni, C. and Stracca, L. (2019), "Much ado about nothing? The shale oil revolution and the global supply curve", Working Paper Series, No 2309, ECB, August.
[5]In addition, with the United States having become a major oil producer, empirical evidence suggests that an increase in the price of oil today has broadly neutral effects on the US economy, as consumption and investment effects largely neutralise each other. This also reduces negative spillovers to the rest of the global economy. See Baumeister, C. and Kilian, L. (2016), "Lower Oil Prices and the U.S. Economy: Is This Time Different?", Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, The Brookings Institution, Vol. 47, No 2 (Fall), pp. 287-357.
[6]See European Commission (2015), A Framework Strategy for a Resilient Energy Union with a Forward-Looking Climate Change Policy.
[7]The opposite effect could occur if the effect of carbon pricing on energy price inflation dominates the effects of the change in energy consumption and composition.
[8]See, for example: Bielen, D. et al. (2017), "The Future of Power Markets in a Low Marginal Cost World", Working Papers, No 17-26, Resources for the Future, December; and Archer, C. L. and Jacobson, M. Z. (2005), "Evaluation of global wind power", Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 110, pp. 1-20.
[9]For the United States, see also Barkai, S. (forthcoming), "Declining Labor and Capital Shares", Journal of Finance.
[10]Forthcoming ECB staff analysis based on microdata highlights that aggregate markups have also been increasing since at least the mid-1990s (the period for which such data are available).
[11]See, for example: Autor, D. et al. (2017), "The Fall of the Labor Share and the Rise of Superstar Firms", NBER Working Paper Series, National Bureau of Economic Research, No 23396, May; and Gutiérrez, G. and Philippon, T. (2017), "Declining Competition and Investment in the U.S.", NBER Working Paper Series, No 23583, National Bureau of Economic Research, July.
[12]See Coenen, G. et al. (2018), "The New Area-Wide Model II: an extended version of the ECB's micro-founded model for forecasting and policy analysis with a financial sector", Working Paper Series, No 2200, ECB, November.
[13]See Bobeica, E., Ciccarelli, M. and Vansteenkiste, I. (2019), "The link between labor cost and price inflation in the euro area", Working Paper Series, No 2235, ECB, February.
[14]See Hahn, E. (2019), "How are wage developments passed through to prices in the euro area? Evidence from a BVAR model", Applied Economics, available online.
[15]See, for example, Taylor, J. (2000), "Low inflation, pass-through, and the pricing power of firms", European Economic Review, Vol. 44, No 7, pp. 1389-1408.
[16]The reality, of course, is much more complicated as digitalisation may affect competition in different ways.
[17]See, for example, Cavallo, A. (2017), "Are Online and Offline Prices Similar? Evidence from Large Multi-channel Retailers", American Economic Review, Vol. 107, No 1, American Economic Association, pp. 283-303.
[18]Should increased profit margins merely reflect the outcome of lower competition, then this benign effect may be mitigated.
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The clubzine of the University of Illinois (at Chicago) Science Fiction Society published mainly in the 1970s.
A hectographed clubzine published by C. Hamilton Bloomer and later by Raymond Van Houten in 1936-1938. It was the OO of the Science Fiction Advancement Association.
Another name for the University of New Hampshire Science Fiction Society, which see.


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Lossiemouth military wives join Lulu on Aberdeen stage
19th March 2016 19th March 2016 by insideMoray
Lossiemouth choir will sing with Lulu in Aberdeen on Monday (pic: Emma Matthias)
A MORAY CHOIR is set for the concert of their lives when they take to the stage in support of legendary Scots star Lulu in Aberdeen on Monday.
The RAF Lossiemouth Military Wives Choir have been working flat out rehearsing their big moment on stage at the His Majesty's Theatre Aberdeen when they will back the Glasgow-born superstar as she performs 'Cry', a new recording released last month.
Events co-ordinator for the choir is Victoria Moffat who admitted the ladies were all very nervous but equally excited about working with the singer. She said: "Lulu and her brother wrote the song, which is about post-traumatic stress disorder, especially to perform with a military wives choir.
"This is a once in a lifetime opportunity for us to sing with Lulu – for many of us it is a dream come true and we are so excited and privileged to have been given this honour.
"Post-traumatic stress disorder is something many wives in the forces are silently dealing with, it is very hard for families when husbands are diagnosed with it – so for Lulu and her brother to write a song to promote the recognition of PTSD is absolutely brilliant."
All proceeds from the sale of 'Cry' are being donated to the Military Wives Choir Foundation with the singer performing the song with different choirs throughout her current UK tour – including the Kinloss Military Wives Choir, who supported Lulu at her concert in Inverness last night.
Lulu said: "Having a different Military Wives Choir join me onstage every night will be a lot of fun – but on a more serious note, later in my life I was diagnosed as having post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), and what that did was help me to relate even more with our men and women in the armed forces.
"I realised I would like to do something to help, so we recorded 'Cry' and my brother and I rewrote the lyrics to apply specifically to the military.
"PTSD is not just about physical scars; it's about the emotional scars, and they run very deep. They are enormous and very difficult to deal with. We need everybody's support."
Last night Victoria reminded people that the Lossiemouth choir have an 'open doors' policy for any ladies with a military backgroud. She said: "Wives partners and daughters of serving military personel or wives and partners of ex-serving military personel, and of course military and veterans too, are all welcome.
"We rehearse at St Aidens Church at Raf Lossiemouth Tuesday nights 7pm – 9pm and if interested to send us an email at Lossiemouth@Militarywiveschoirs.org or check our Facebook page for updates."
Derelict landmark finally gets some good news
Update: 16-year-old youth dies after Moray road accident

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Hannah Groves of Freeport blocks a shot by Kathryn Keaney of Yarmouth.
Hope Olson of Yarmouth drives between Hannah Spaulding, left, and Caroline Smith of Freeport.
Rachel Wall of Freeport is bumped by Yarmouth's Calin McGonagle, who gets called for a foul. Freeport won, 49-41.
Avery May of Yarmouth blocks a shot by Caroline Smith of Freeport.
Caroline Smith of Freeport reacts as Kathryn Keaney of Yarmouth drives to the basket.
Hope Olson of Yarmouth shoots while being defended by Hannah Spaulding, right, and Caroline Smith.


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Sat, Aug 15, 2015 page3
Taisi residents with cancer sue operator of Mailiao cracker
By Chen Wei-han / Staff reporter
Residents of Taisi Township (台西) in Yunlin County on Thursday filed a lawsuit against the Formosa Plastics Group, demanding NT$70 million (US$2.16 million) in compensation for alleged health hazards caused by the group's naphtha cracker complex in Mailiao Township (麥寮).
A legal team headed by lawyer Thomas Chan (詹順貴) representing 74 Taisi residents with cancer filed the civil suit against Formosa Petrochemical, Formosa Plastics, Nan Ya Plastics, Formosa Chemicals and Fibre and Mailiao Power, Chan told a press conference in Taipei yesterday.
Residents are seeking NT$70.17 million in compensation for medical expenses, lost earning capacity, mental anguish and funeral expenses related to diseases caused by pollutants emitted by these operators, Chan said.
The suit is the first in the nation to base its claim on academic research on environmental health hazards, he said, stressing the difficulty of proving a causal relation between residents' medical condition and the complex's operations.
A test conducted by National Taiwan University professor Chan Chang-chuan (詹長權) in 2012 showed that the cancer incidence rate of residents living within 10km of the plant from 2008 to 2010 was 4.07 times higher than that from 1999 to 2001, Thomas Chan said.
The sixth naphtha cracker began operations in 1998.
There have been 645 reported environmental violations by operators at the plant over the past five years, averaging once every 2.8 days, and the fines collected have reached more than NT$300 million, the lawyer said, adding that the compensation the residents seek is nothing compared with the fines and billions of New Taiwan dollars in revenue that these operators earn.
Showing a photograph of a Taisi resident who died of cancer, a plaintiff named Wu Jih-hui (吳日輝) said that 4.5 people die of cancer caused by the naphtha cracker every day on average.
"How many more people must be sacrificed so the government would step in?" Wu asked.
"My parents and grandparents contracted cancer one after another," Taisi resident Wu Tung-jung (吳東融) said. "I have been working in Taipei, but I dare not go back to my hometown after I retire."
"The plant poses a risk to people, but it is legal," Mingdao University professor and Taisi resident Hwang Yuan-he (黃源河) said. "What we want is basic human rights and judicial relief — the last protection we can resort to."
Presenting three recent studies on air pollution and the county's oil refinery industry to Thomas Chan, former Yunlin County commissioner Su Chih-feng (蘇治芬) said the studies are part of ongoing research funded by the county government about the effect the naphtha cracker has on residents.
The legal battle would be a difficult undertaking as the plaintiffs have to bear the legal burden of proof, Su said, adding that existing environmental laws are too slack and the Environmental Protection Administration has not done its job properly.
Changhua County Environmental Protection Union secretary-general Shih Yueh-ying (施月英) said that the health threat posed by the naphtha cracker is not limited to Yunlin.
Residents of Changhua County's Dacheng Township (大城) have higher levels of possibly carcinogenic heavy-metal pollutants in their urine than those of Yunlin, Shih said, citing a study by Chan Chang-chuan released in April.
Shih questioned whether the Yunlin and Changhua county governments have devised any plan to relocate residents living near the plant, saying the governments must do something for powerless residents.
Thomas Chan called on the central government to set up a cross-municipality pollution control program, as all the cities and counties on Taiwan proper except for Taitung are affected by the naphtha cracker.
Taiwan eyes joining US' economic pact
President Tsai Ing-wen's (蔡英文) administration is seeking to join an Indo-Pacific economic framework being planned by the US, a senior official said. The government is paying close attention to the regional economic pact being touted by US President Joe Biden, although too few details have emerged from Washington for Taipei to make specific plans, the official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity. The US is expected to launch the Indo-Pacific economic framework next month after negotiations with Australia, India and Japan, the official said. The economic initiative is to tackle trade facilitation, standards for the digital economy and technology, supply-chain resiliency and
By Lee Hsin-fang and Jonathan Chin
Chinese pop song souring ties: MAC
'NEW YEAR GIFT': While the MAC called the song propaganda, China's Taiwan Affairs Office said that it addressed the homesickness of 'Taiwanese compatriots' A pro-unification pop song aired on Chinese television earlier this month would only further sour Taiwanese sentiment toward China, the Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) said on Wednesday. The music video for We Sing the Same Song (我們同唱一首歌), which aired on China Central Television, features Chinese artists performing alongside Taiwanese singers Jam Hsiao (蕭敬騰), Ouyang Nana (歐陽娜娜) and Chen Li-nong (陳立農). The lyrics were reportedly written by Taiwanese lyricist Vincent Fang (方文山), known for his collaborations with Jay Chou (周杰倫), to music composed by a Chinese musician. Sung in Chinese and Hoklo (commonly known as Taiwanese), the song is about three Taiwanese siblings who
By Chen Yu-fu and Kayleigh Madjar
Virus positivity rate high among overseas arrivals
RULES TIGHTENED: Passengers arriving from Sydney and Los Angeles tested positive for COVID-19, while passengers arriving from Seattle all tested negative Seventeen of the 217 passengers who arrived on long-haul at Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport yesterday morning tested positive for COVID-19, the Central Epidemic Command Center (CECC) said, adding that the positivity rate was higher than expected. Yesterday was the first day that the government enforced stricter health guidelines for the testing of passengers arriving on long-haul flights. They must undergo a polymerase chain reaction test immediately after arriving at the nation's international airports. Those who test positive are sent directly to hospitals to avoid spreading the virus to people working in and around the airports and at quarantine hotels. Victor Wang (王必勝),
By Shelley Shan
Eating, drinking allowed on trains for now: TRA
'CHAOS': Victor Wang, the CECC's on-site commander at Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport, said testing of arrivals has sped up in time to meet holiday demand For now, people are not banned from eating and drinking on trains, despite the rise in locally transmitted cases of COVID-19, Minister of Transportation and Communications Wang Kwo-tsai (王國材) told reporters on the sidelines of a meeting of the legislature's Transportation Committee yesterday. "On Sunday, the Central Epidemic Command Center (CECC) announced that the nation would remain on a level 2 COVID-19 alert until at least Jan. 24. So we will follow the center's disease prevention guidelines for passengers on public transport systems," Wang said. However, bus and train depots have been asked to disinfect facilities more frequently, he said. The center's new


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If you have ever had a Turtle™ without the chocolate you will love these. We use salted/roasted pecans and slow cook every batch to really enrich the flavor. The saltiness of the pecans is a perfect compliment to the caramel. You will absolutely love these and so will your friends!!


Lego has been a part of my life since the 80's. I lost interest with Lego bricks as I got older (replaced by comic books and art), but when my kids discovered Lego my Lego-love was rekindled.
Like most families with a Lego addiction, we will soon not know what to do with all those darn bricks. My son's room is slowly being overtaken by a swelling mass of colored plastic.
Well, Jeffrey Pellitier knew what to do, and by my account, he's set the standard for a new type of room in modern homes. Check out the video and see what I mean.


(Reuters) - Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd (CP.TO) has approached CSX Corp CSX.N about merging the two North American railroad operators, according to the Wall Street Journal.
The offer was made in the past week and was rebuffed, the newspaper said on Sunday, citing people briefed on the matter. It added that it was unclear if Canadian Pacific has shelved the plan.
Canadian Pacific spokesman Martin Cej and CSX spokeswoman Melanie Cost both told Reuters their companies do not comment on market rumors.
Canadian Pacific, Canada's No. 2 railway by revenue, has a market value of about $32 billion, while Florida-based CSX, the No. 3 U.S. carrier, is worth about $30 billion, though it generates more revenue, the Journal said. Activist investor William Ackman is on Canadian Pacific's board and his hedge fund has a big stake in the company.
Potential obstacles to a deal include obtaining consent from the U.S. Surface Transportation Board, which oversees railroads, as well as from U.S. national security officials, the paper said.


Finding just the right canopy for an outdoor function can be crucial. The worst thing possible would be to select a product that is not able to live up to the needs that you have. Shelter Logic has taken great pains to develop their Round Portable Garage Canopy ao that all of your needs are attended to. Coming in a lovely shade of green, this item is designed to not only look nice but also to provide all of your guests with the protection that they need during your event.
Is this garage snow rated? If so, what is it rated for? I'd like to know both wind and snow.


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Nonmetallics
Departments - Scrap Industry News
Hilex Poly to Double Recycling Capacity at Indiana Plant
Hartsville, S.C-based Hilex Poly, a manufacturer of plastic bag and film products, has announced that it plans to double recycling capacity at its North Vernon, Ind., plant. When the project is complete, the company will be able to recycle 100 million pounds of material annually across its facilities, according to the company's public relations representative.
Hilex launched the Bag-2-Bag closed-loop recycling program in 2004. Today, Helix Poly has 30,000 recycling bins in grocery stores across the U.S. In partnership with retail and grocery stores, Hilex provides an avenue for consumers to return used plastic bags and other household film for recycling through at-store collection bins. Using reverse distribution, the collected material is transported back to distribution centers for baling before being shipped back to the company's Indiana plant for processing.
"As Hilex focuses on developing products that utilize more recycled content, we ask the public to continue to reuse their free plastic bags, recycle those that are not reused and support retailers that use recycled content bags—a proven enhanced alternative to recycled paper and virgin plastic bags," says Stan Bikulege, CEO of Hilex Poly.
Bikulege says the company's expansion plans will move Hilex Poly closer to its voluntary initiative to manufacture plastic bags with 40 percent recycled content.
"The expansion of the recycling facility is a direct result of the tremendous growth of plastic bags and wraps being returned to participating retailers for recycling," says Mark Daniels, vice president of marketing and environmental affairs at Hilex Poly.
More information on Hilex Poly is available at www.hilexpoly.com.
Liberty Tire Acquires Able Tire Co.
Pittsburgh-based Liberty Tire, one of the largest tire recycling companies in the country, has acquired Able Tire Co., based in Texas. The deal will merge the companies' scrap tire markets in Texas and Oklahoma.
Able Tire, which has been in operation for more than 16 years, has worked with tire retailers to dispatch, collect and track the disposal of scrap tires.
With the acquisition, Liberty Tire says it will take advantage of significant savings and efficiencies while retaining the company's leadership team. Able Tire has established a paperless manifest system, a cradle-to-grave tire tracking system that includes the filing of paperless records with the Texas state environmental authorities.
Liberty estimates it handles close to 25 percent of the country's annual scrap tire production through a network of 14 facilities, producing finely ground crumb rubber, rubber nuggets, tire-derived fuel and lightweight aggregate.
PWP Holds Official Grand Opening at West Virginia Plant
The plastics recycling company PWP Industries has officially opened its new 80,000-square-foot in-house plastics recycling facility in Davisville, W.Va.
PWP is working with Coca-Cola Recycling LLC of Atlanta to convert post-consumer PET plastic bottles into Food and Drug Administration-compliant resin for food-grade-suitable material. The new recycling center, one of the first for a thermoforming company, is estimated to have an annual capacity to recycle 40 million pounds of recycled PET flake.
Coca-Cola Recycling will be the primary supplier of recycled PET flake that PWP will use as FDA-compliant resin for the production of food packaging. PWP is a subsidiary of Coca-Cola Enterprises Inc.
C&D Recycling
Waste Management Opens C&D MRF in Southern California
Executives from Waste Management Inc. (WMI) and business and community environmental leaders from the San Diego area joined to unveil a construction and demolition processing and recycling center in El Cajon, Calif. The facility will recover and process up to 130,000 tons of commercial construction debris, as well as traditional recyclables, annually.
WMI estimates that C&D accounts for more than 22 percent of the overall waste stream in California, 35 percent of the waste at Miramar Landfill, more than 100,000 tons annually for the unincorporated areas of the county and more than 1 million tons countywide.
"We have provided C&D collection services to developers since the '70s. With the new sort line, we can take it to the next level and help contractors actually recycle these materials as opposed to simply hauling them to the landfill," says Carl Scherbaum, WMI of San Diego district manager.
"This investment into San Diego's green infrastructure not only demonstrates our long-term commitment to recycling in San Diego, but also reaffirms our strong belief that green solutions make good business sense, even in this economy," Scherbaum adds.
Lubo USA, headquartered in Stamford, Conn., supplied the sorting equipment, which represents a $7 million investment.
Bayshore Recycling to Upgrade Mixed C&D Facility
New Jersey-based Montecalvo Disposal Services Inc. (MDS) and sister company Bayshore Recycling Corp. are installing a custom-designed mixed C&D recycling system made by Quebec-based Erin Recycling.
The new dual-line system, which features a combination of Erin Fingerscreeners, air density and magnetic separation equipment, will automate a significant portion of the material separation functions at Bayshore's Keasbey, N.J., location.
"We've had a concerted C&D recovery effort in place since 1995, so we are anything but strangers to that market," says Valerie Montecalvo, Bayshore's president. "Over the years, however, markets have changed, volumes have increased and new technology has evolved. We've been looking not only to respond to those changes but to anticipate what might lie ahead. The Erin recycling system, by nature of its design, will allow us to do that."
Adds Frank Montecalvo, Bayshore vice president, "The goals for our C&D operation have always centered around three key points: making on-site collection of debris simpler for our customers, maximizing recovery from the C&D waste stream, and minimizing the volumes headed to our landfill. We see Erin's recycling system doing all that, and more, for us."
MDS's C&D recycling system will be designed to handle the company's permitted volumes of 1,000 tons per day, but, according to James Bray, the company's director of C&D operations, specific elements of the system will allow for future growth.
"Currently we have nine primary products that we recover on a regular basis," he says. "However, this system was designed with multiple sorting stations so we can increase volumes of specific products as the market dictates."
By automating the C&D debris recycling process, Bray says MDS will be able to not only process additional volumes, but also recover a greater percentage of the recyclable material it handles through its Keasbey plant.
Municipal Recycling
Greenstar North America Opens San Antonio MRF
Houston-based Greenstar North America has announced the opening of what it claims is the largest recycling facility in Texas. The 180,000-square-foot facility, located in San Antonio, has the capacity to process 20,000 tons per month and features a Bollegraaf single-stream processing system from Van Dyk Baler Corp., Stamford, Conn.
Greenstar reports that it has experienced a dramatic increase in recycling rates across its Texas markets, particularly in San Antonio. Since implementing single-stream recycling, San Antonio's recycling rates have increased by as much as 200 percent compared to the previous collection approach in some areas.
John Rabon, Greenstar Southwest regional manager, says, "Greenstar opted to build the facility in San Antonio because it has the largest recycling program in the state and will serve as an excellent hub to collect materials from key regions across Texas."
The facility employs approximately 100 people and accepts single-stream materials from other recycling programs across Central and South Texas.
Greenstar handles 2 million tons of recyclables per year through a network of 14 processing facilities. The company has invested more than $300 million in its U.S. recycling business in the last two years, $50 million of which has been invested in Texas.
Boston Introduces Citywide Single-Stream Recycling Program
The city of Boston has switched to a single-stream recycling program that began July 1. The city says it expects to save more than $1 million as a result of the change to its curbside recycling service.
"This single-stream recycling program is key to Boston's sustainability and is a great example of how we are thinking creatively to make sure Boston's future is bright despite the difficult economic times we're facing," Boston Mayor Thomas Menino says.
Jim Hunt, chief of Environmental Services for Boston, says, "Recycling is one of the easiest steps individuals can take to both improve our environment and reduce costs of waste disposal. The pilot programs we advanced in several Boston neighborhoods increased recycling by more than 50 percent and clearly demonstrated that Boston residents want to do their part to recycle more."
During the next year, the city will distribute more than 55,000 carts to residents in individual households and apartment buildings with six or fewer units.
Former NRC Leaders Urge Vote Against KAB Merger
Nearly 50 former leaders of the National Recycling Coalition (NRC), based in Washington, D.C., have urged the association's members to reject a takeover by Keep America Beautiful (KAB), Stamford, Conn.
"This proposed takeover will eliminate NRC as an independent voice for recycling, giving recyclers just a limited advisory role in an organization that has historically failed to support the structural changes that are essential if progressive recycling policies are to be adopted in this country," says Clifford Case, NRC founder and former president and spokesperson for Save the NRC.
Save the NRC arose out of a May announcement that the NRC board accepted an immediate $200,000 operating loan in exchange for the rights to America Recycles Day and a possible takeover of all trademarks, rights and intellectual property in exchange for a payoff of nearly $500,000 in debt, pending a membership referendum.
Under the terms of the purchase, the NRC, through the NRC Advisory Council, would become a unit of KAB. The NRC would receive three seats on the KAB board of directors.
According to the Save the NRC group, a "no" vote could lead to a number of things including filing into Chapter 11 and reorganizing its debts and its priorities; operating as a volunteer organization with no paid staff that contracts out all services (including conference and Web site) and hosts an open two-way listserve for all members; dissolving completely; or merging with another organization.
"Hundreds of KAB affiliates around the country have done good and important work in litter prevention and beautification at the local level," says Mark Lichtenstein, former NRC board president, "but we don't believe that KAB is an appropriate owner of the NRC name or programs, or that the proposal before the membership is in the best interests of recycling."
U.S. Senators Introduce Electronics Recycling Bill
U.S. Sens. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) and Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) have introduced bipartisan legislation to promote the research and development of programs to improve the collection and recycling of electronic equipment and to reduce the use of hazardous materials in electronics.
The Electronic Device Recycling Research and Development Act would provide research grants to find ways to deal with the growing amount of electronic scrap. Susan Collins (R-Maine) also sponsored the bill.
The Electronic Device Recycling Research and Development Act, or S. 1397, would make competitively awarded grants available to universities, government labs and private industry for research, development and demonstration projects for electronic device recycling, re-use and refurbishment and to aid in the development of more environmentally friendly electronic materials.
The House passed its version of the bill, H.R. 1580, in April. The house measure had the support of the Institute of Scrap Recycling Industries Inc. (ISRI), Washington, D.C.
Electronic Recyclers Inc.'s Massachusetts Location Receives ISO Certification
Electronic Recyclers Inc. (ERI) has received an official letter of registration and certification from the International Organization for Standardization (ISO) confirming that ERI has successfully completed its ISO Certification Audit at its Gardner, Mass., location and is now officially ISO 9001 and ISO 14001 registered.
The ISO 14001 certification addresses environmental management. Receiving approval in this area indicates that ERI has successfully met or exceeded international standards in the areas of minimizing harmful effects on the environment caused by its activities and has achieved evidence of continual improvement of its environmental performance.
The ISO 9001 certification addresses quality management and certifies that ERI has fulfilled global standards for customers' quality requirements as well as regulatory requirements.
ERI is based in Fresno, Calif.
Scrap Industry News
President Signs Auto-Scrapping Bill
President Barack Obama has signed a bill into law that offers credit for consumers swapping low-gas-mileage cars for more fuel-efficient models.
The Car Allowance Rebate System (CARS) includes $1 billion in funding to pay for the program, which the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration will manage. It is expected to run until Nov. 1, 2009, or until the funds are depleted.
Automobiles that qualify for the credit must be no older than 25 years, get 18 miles per gallon or less and be in drivable condition. The trade-in vehicles also will have to have been registered and insured continuously for the past year.
The credit, either $3,500 or $4,500, depends on the type of vehicle purchased and the difference in fuel economy relative to the trade-in.
The law calls for the trade-in vehicle to be destroyed. This could translate into a jump in the number of vehicles that will be delivered to auto shredders. The law requires the dealer to disclose an estimate of the scrap value of the trade-in vehicle to the consumer. The scrap value will be in addition to the rebate and not in place of it.
CARS also establishes requirements and procedures for the disposal of eligible trade-in vehicles.
More information on CARS is available at www.cars.gov.
Organizations Form Steel Scrap Futures Exchange
Chicago Climate Futures Exchange (CCFE) and World Steel Dynamics (WSD), Englewood Cliffs, N.J., have jointly formed World Steel Exchange (WSE) to list futures contracts initially for steel scrap. The contracts will trade and clear on CCFE's Internet-accessible trading platform, Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX), and will be based on the SteelBenchmarker family of price indices and other indices.
"The trading of futures contracts on the World Steel Exchange will give those involved in buying or selling steel scrap, steel products and steelmakers' raw materials the opportunity to hedge the price risk, which is a critical need given the volatility of prices in these sectors," says Peter Marcus, WSD's managing partner.
The World Steel Exchange Marketing (WSEM), a new company, will support the WSW venture. "The WSEM'fs staff will become a valuable resource and support service, for no fee, for those seeking to manage the steel price risk," Marcus says.
The WSE expects to launch its first contracts later this year.
Sims Makes Acquisition
Sims Metal Management Ltd., based in Australia, has acquired U.S. recycler Fairless Iron & Metal.
Morrisville, Pa.-based Fairless operates two principal facilities. The Morrisville yard includes a mega-shredder, downstream nonferrous recovery systems and a deep water port. Fairless is the sister company of New Jersey-based Mercer Group International. (For more information on Fairless, see "Rising to Prominence" in the June 2009 issue of Recycling Today.)
World's Steel Output Improves in May
World crude steel production for the 66 countries reporting to the Brussels-based World Steel Association was 95.6 million metric tons in May, a 7 percent increase over the 88.9 million metric tons produced in April.
Compared to the record-setting output of 2008, production remains lower. The May 2009 total is 21 percent lower compared to the 121 million metric tons of steel produced in May of 2008.
China's crude steel production for May 2009 was 46.5 million metric tons, 0.6 percent higher than that nation's output for May of 2008.
But China was an exception in terms of May 2009 vs. May 2008 figures:
• Japan's output declined by 38.5 percent compared to the same month last year.
• South Korea showed a decrease of 11.8 percent.
• Germany's crude steel output declined 47.8 percent in May 2009 vs. May 2008.
• Spain produced 41.3 percent less steel than in May 2008.
• The United States produced 4.3 million metric tons of crude steel in May 2009, a decrease of 50.6 percent compared to the same month last year.
• Russia's crude steel production for May 2009 was 4.7 million metric tons, a decrease of 31.2 percent compared to May of 2008.
• Turkey's decline was less steep, down 16.1 percent in May 2008 vs. May 2009.
Year-to-date, world crude steel production for the first five months of 2009, as calculated by World Steel, was 449 million metric tons, a 22.4 percent decrease vs. the same period of 2008.
China's production of 217.2 million metric tons of crude steel for the first five months of 2009 shows a slight increase of 0.4 percent vs. 2008 and makes up close to half of the global total for 2009.
Nucor Purchases Land in Louisiana
Nucor Steel Louisiana LLC has begun purchasing property in St. James Parish, La., for a proposed iron and steel facility. In May the company completed its first purchase of nearly 890 acres of land in St. James Parish for $16.3 million.
"While we understand that Nucor will not make a final site-selection decision until its air quality permit is approved by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, we certainly view the company's decision to begin purchasing land to assemble the proposed site as a very positive indicator of Nucor's interest in Louisiana," says Stephen Moret, Louisiana Economic Development secretary. "This project remains a top priority of our administration, and we are cautiously optimistic that Nucor ultimately will select Louisiana for this huge project. Louisiana offers a variety of compelling strategic advantages to Nucor, yet we would not be in this promising position today without the Mega Project Development Fund."
Last May Nucor announced its interest in building a pig iron plant in either Louisiana or Brazil. In a statement issued at the time, Dan DiMicco, Nucor's chairman and CEO, notes: "Nucor would build one of the most modern iron making facilities in the world to produce 3 million tons of pig iron, employing the latest technologies to reduce emissions. At the same time, this project would help Nucor achieve our long-term goal of increasing control over our raw materials supply."


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March 2, 2017 March 2, 2017 joshthegreenbergLeave a comment
I consider myself to be a very shallow Tolkien scholar. Yes, I've read the books, and I've perused the Silmarillion and a number of Tolkien's letters and other works. Which, to a large portion of the world probably marks me as a deep Tolkien scholar ("You've read his letters?"), but to the world of experts who have taken the plunge into Tolkien's larger body of work I am simply a n00b. But that means that I can avoid the traps that many self-described Tolkien scholars fall into, such as sticking just a bit too close to the details that Tolkien describes at length.
It's for this reason that I was able to enjoy Middle Earth: Shadow of Mordor a bit more than the other experts. They argue that Talion can't come back from the dead, or that Celebrimbor could never be a Wraith as Tolkien describes Wraiths, or that Mordor would never have any wildlife like there is to be seen in Nurn, or some other bit of trivia that, if we're being super honest here, doesn't matter in the slightest. Not when we have a game that actually, surprise surprise, deals with themes that are closely tied to the themes of The Lord of the Rings!
I had inklings of it back when I played the game when it came out in 2014 and was being hailed as the Game of the Year, but it wasn't until my most recent play-through that it really struck me just how closely the game follows the internal logic not of Tolkien's world but of his themes. And I replayed the game just before the Middle Earth: Shadow of War announcement, which goes to show just how good the game is on its own. The Lord of the Rings is, in part, a work about Good and Evil. And if we are to distill the concepts of good and evil in Tolkien's mythology (not an easy feat, and one I will try to not do a disservice to here), we find that the fight at the center of the War of the Ring is one of Free Will Vs. Domination.
Many of the main conflicts of the Lord of the Rings stem from the ability of the One Ring being able to dominate those who wear it and corrupt them. And how does it corrupt people? Into wanting to dominate others, impose their will on others. Boromir's main failing is the attempt to take the Ring from Frodo by force. Gollum's whole being has been consumed by the Ring and he will do almost anything to anyone to get it back. And to contrast with Boromir we have his brother Faramir who not only refuses the Ring, but lets Frodo continue on his journey with it, thereby not imposing his will on Frodo.
And the other main power of the One Ring was the ability it gave Sauron to dominate the other Rings that he had helped fashion. The Ring bearers of Men and Dwarves were heinously affected, turning the 9 kings of Men into the Nazgul and turning the kings of the Dwarves to even more excessive greed and lust for gold, while the Elven Rings that Celebrimbor had forged in secret were unaffected except for the awareness of Sauron's intent that it brought to them, allowing them to remove their rings.
And this of course leads directly to Shadow of Mordor, where the wraith of Celebrimbor is revealed to have been captured and tortured by Sauron into helping complete the One Ring. Celebrimbor stole the One just as he finished and attempted to usurp Sauron's throne and save his captured family, but of course Sauron has put too much of his essence into the One and so at the crucial moment the One returns to Sauron and Celebrimbor is cursed to wander Mordor as a wraith. Until Sauron is tired of Celebrimbor's interference and so sacrifices Talion in an effort to draw him out. Talion is able to use the power he gains by being bound to Celebrimbor to "brand" orcs and Dominate them, so that they no longer follow the whims of Sauron but instead only follow "The Bright Lord", also known as Celebrimbor.
This of course is where the message of the game and how it relates to the themes of Tolkien's work get a bit muddled. Because the game play of Shadow of Mordor feels amazing. It's incredibly fun to assassinate Orc Warchiefs from above, or to develop a rivalry with an orc that became a captain for killing you in the first place, or to defeat an endless stream of orcs while attacking one of their strongholds. Talion is fun to control and his abilities make exploring the environment of Mordor and attacking its orc army all the more relishing.
But the story of the game tells a slightly different story, where Talion, at first separated from his wife and son by being brought back to life as opposed to entering the Halls of the Dead with them, at the end of the game decides to abandon his quest to be reunited with his family and instead joins Celebrimbor's quest for vengeance and power. It is a tragedy what happens to Celebrimbor as he is corrupted by the One Ring, and it is a tragedy what happens to Talion as he is corrupted by Celebrimbor in turn. Talion's quest for vengeance isn't a righteous one. It isn't even a successful one, as we well know, since Talion and Celebrimbor can't and won't defeat Sauron, Frodo will by bringing the Ring all the way to Mount Doom so Gollum can fall in with it.
Video games like Shadow of Mordor are inherently a power fantasy, built on the various ways you can commit acts of violence against artificially intelligent enemies. Shadow of Mordor's gameplay seems to be sending a different message than its story. It says violence and the domination of the orcs is awesome, and fun, but also that these things are inherently corrupt and fruitless. One interpretation is that the Nemesis system, the part of the game so lauded for its ability to create emergent stories, is a part of the way that we can rectify these two messages. Yes, the game says, killing these orcs is fun, but where does it end? The nemesis system ensures that there are always more orcs to kill, always more opponents waiting to strike you down in retaliation. Talion can't defeat evil though violence, he can only stem the tide temporarily, or even worse bring about a worse retribution later. Dominating the orcs doesn't work, because the orcs don't stop being vile, and in turn Talion becomes vile for taking away their right to choose. In the DLC pack "The Bright Lord", the orc warchiefs are terrified by the idea of becoming thralls of Celebrimbor, and beg you to kill them rather than eradicate their will and impose your own. Talion isn't a hero, he's an anti-hero at best. He's what would have become of Boromir if he had taken the Ring, corrupted and just as evil as the power that he hoped to destroy.
I'm incredibly excited to see the sequel to Shadow of Mordor, Middle Earth: Shadow of War take the next logical escalation of Talion's corruption. The way that Shadow of Mordor was able to stay true to many of the themes of Tolkien's work was a breath of fresh air for a shallow Tolkien scholar such as myself, and I trust the team behind it to continue those themes. As Talion takes the next step on his path to becoming just yet another dark lord, creating another Ring to dominate orcs and eventually the other peoples of Middle Earth, just as Sauron does, his story will grow darker and more seductive, and I can't wait to experience that seduction in a safe place like a game yet again.
June 18, 2016 June 19, 2016 joshthegreenbergLeave a comment
I'm not entirely sure how the "layman" responds to Warcraft. How does someone who has never interacted with one of the RTS games or World of Warcraft or even Hearthstone ingest this film? I personally feel like every person I know has at least had exposure to the concept of World of Warcraft and its two warring factions, the Alliance and the Horde, prominently represented by the Humans and Orcs respectively. It's really hard to separate that viewpoint, that knowledge of the "franchise" that's so ingrained into me and those I consider friends.


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Tufts University Department of Public Safety
Threat Assessment Process
Recognizing Threats
Reporting a Concern
If I know a Tufts University community member (student, employee, contract employee) who may need to be referred to TTAM what do I do?
Recognize the warning signs and file a report.
In emergencies: see the sidebar on the right.
If it's a non–emergency, contact University Police (see sidebar); use the TTAM group email, or use Awareity, the threat assessment, and the management reporting system.
Even if you are questioning or unsure, it's always better to talk to someone about a person or situation of concern. Translation services are available to assist in information-gathering procedures if necessary.
What qualifications do TTAM team members have?
All TTAM team members have received professional training in threat assessment and management. Common basic training helps to ensure consistency in procedures used in assessing these critical situations.
Who can make a TTAM referral?
Anyone who feels that a Tufts community member is a potential threat to the community can make a TTAM referral; including students, parents, employees (faculty and staff), and Alumni.
What happens after I make the referral?
TTAM members, trained in assessing and taking action regarding threatening behavior or direct threats, receive your referral, assess the information, and make a decision about whether the community member will be further assessed or another action is indicated. However, reporting concerning behavior is the most critical step. To make a TTAM referral, please contact University Police (see sidebar); use the TTAM group email, or use Awareity, the threat assessment, and the management reporting system.
What happens to the community member being reported?
If the team determines that the community member's behavior warrants intervention by the team, the community member will be contacted and instructed to participate in an assessment.
Can I be retaliated against for making a report or providing information to TTAM?
No. Tufts University is sensitive to concerns related to retaliation against individuals who in good faith report acts of violence, concerning behavior or statements, or potential threats, or who participate in an investigation under this policy. Retaliating against a person who has made a report under this policy or who has participated in an investigation is prohibited. Retaliation includes, but is not limited to, ostracizing the person, pressuring the person to drop the report or not participate in the investigation, or taking other adverse action against the person. The University will respond to and investigate all reports of retaliation. An individual who engages in retaliation under this policy will be subject to discipline in accordance with the University's student and employee disciplinary policies, as applicable.
Is my report to TTAM confidential?
TTAM team members are responsible for treating their work confidentially. While a TTAM team member cannot promise confidentiality during the intake or reporting process, information will be shared only with those who need to know. TTAM members may not disclose confidential material to anyone outside of the TTAM process unless the team determines that disclosure is warranted because the individual receiving the information is a university official or emergency responder with a need to know. If you are concerned that your information has not been treated with this discretion, we encourage you to contact us immediately.
How do I know if the behavior warrants a TTAM intervention or if it is more appropriately handled by other campus resources?
You don't have to make this determination; TTAM will do it for you. The most critical step is that you report the concern.
If you are comfortable doing so, you can also tell the individual who is exhibiting threatening behavior that you are concerned and ask if s/he needs help. If they do, you can refer them to the below list of services for students and employees:
Tufts Health Services (Medford/Somerville)
Tufts Counseling and Mental Health Service (Medford/Somerville and Boston-SMFA)
Student Advisory and Health Administration (Boston-Health Sciences and Grafton)
TTAM members (during business hours)
For employees (faculty and staff)
Employee Assistance Program (all campuses)
Typically, threats, either explicit or implied, or threatening behavior that poses a threat to safety qualify as TTAM referrals.
Important Tip
Never promise confidentiality to a community member or a reporting party during the TTAM intake or referral process. Always assure them that information will be shared with care, and with only those with a need to know.
Get to a safe place
Call University Police at (617) 627-6911 or x66911 from a campus phone
Tell police your location, the phone number you're calling from, the nature of the emergency, and who is involved
Safely notify others who might be in danger
Non-Emergencies
If you become aware of a situation that you believe may pose a threat to the safety of the community or one of its members, we encourage you to either
Call the University Police by phone
Email the TTAM team. An email to the TTAM team does not generate a formal report.
Make a report online via Awareity (may be anonymous)
Consult with a TTAM team member
Department of Public & Environmental Safety
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WTF! Happened: DJ Jazzy Jeff and the Fresh Prince
From West Philadelphia, born and raised, Will Smith and Jeff Townes made the hip hop duo, DJ Jazzy Jeff and the Fresh Prince. After bringing beatboxer specialist, Clarence Holmes (Ready Rock C) aboard to the team, they became a celebrity in their home town. In 1990, Ready Rock C left the group not knowing the fame that will soon hit the duo later on. Joining forces with Jive Records resulted in their first debut album Rock the House and toured with RUN DMC and Public Enemy. Following their first album came He's the DJ, I'm the Rapper making them reach platinum success featuring the single, "Parents Just Don't Understand". While their style of hip hop makes a mark in music history, the two disbanded when WIll Smith took acting as a full time job. The two played roles in the sitcom The Fresh Prince of Bel Air. Through the years, Will Smith released a number of solo albums and played major roles in movies such as Independence Day, The Pursuit of Happyness, and I Am Legend to name a few. Dj Jazzy Jeff still spins here and there and has collaborated with Pittsburg native Mac Miller. The two have had a dope run through the years and earned a height of echelon in the music and acting industry.


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New Study Claims Eggs Cause Heart Disease. Here's What It Gets Wrong
Eggs are a big part of the Bulletproof Diet, and for good reason. They're full of protein, vitamin D, lutein, choline, and more.
But a new study published in the medical journal JAMA, found that people who ate two eggs a day had a 27 percent higher risk of developing heart disease.
While that might sound scary, it's not. The study has drawn criticism from news outlets for its shortcomings, which are many. Read on to learn more.
Cholesterol itself doesn't cause heart disease — damaged, oxidized fats are the real culprits.
Where the egg is from, and how it's cooked, plays a big role. Eat organic, pastured eggs and leave the yolk soft when cooking.
Scroll down for healthy Bulletproof egg recipes.
Eggs are a big part of the Bulletproof Diet, and for good reason. They're full of protein, vitamin D, lutein, choline, and more. Plus they're the ultimate fast food minus the crap — scramble an egg in a matter of minutes in some grass-fed ghee, add half an avocado, and you'll be satisfied for hours.
But a new study has once again cast doubt on the safety of eggs — are they good for you, or does eating them clog up your arteries?
The study, published in the medical journal JAMA, found that people who ate two eggs a day had a 27 percent higher risk of developing heart disease.
The researchers combined findings from six different cohorts in the U.S., looking at nearly 30,000 people over a 17-year period, between 1985 and 2016. They found that for each additional 300 milligrams of cholesterol eaten per day, there was a 17 percent increased risk of cardiovascular disease as well as a risk of premature death from any cause.
While that might sound scary, it's not. The study has drawn criticism from news outlets like NPR, Forbes and Today for its shortcomings, which are many.
Download the Bulletproof Diet Roadmap to learn what and how much to eat, and what to avoid
Flaws in the study
The study relied on people recalling what it is they ate over a number of weeks. Memory is notoriously unreliable — just try remembering what you ate for breakfast last Wednesday. How about three weeks ago? Four months ago? Not only that, the studies analyzed used different methods for collecting the information about people's diets. Combining studies to draw a larger conclusion isn't always reliable, since their methods weren't the same. It's like comparing apples with oranges, or in this case, eggs with broccoli.
The study also failed to take into consideration other causes of heart disease. Sure, it touched on lifestyle factors such as weight, smoking, and exercise, but these weren't really considered in the final conclusion, which was that eggs are bad. But heart disease isn't simply a result of eating any one food. It's far more complex than that.
And here's another issue, and it's a big one: The study didn't account for how people were preparing their eggs, or what they were eating alongside them. Were they eating grain-fed eggs fried in damaging vegetable oils? Or perhaps they were eating their eggs alongside industrially-produced sausage patties. Where you source your food, and how you prepare it, matters (more on that below).
Related: The Best Healthy Sources of Protein
So what's the deal with cholesterol?
For decades, the government and American Heart Association warned against the dangers of dietary cholesterol, urging people to limit high-cholesterol foods like eggs and full-fat dairy. Back in 2015, cholesterol finally caught a break, when the Dietary Guidelines of America stopped including a limit on the number of eggs you should be eating a week.
Related: High Cholesterol, Saturated Fats and Low-Carb Diets: What You Need to Know
Cholesterol itself doesn't cause heart disease — damaged, oxidized fats are the real culprits. You may have heard of HDL (or high-density lipoprotein) cholesterol and LDL (low-density lipoprotein) cholesterol. People like to refer to LDL as the "bad type" of cholesterol because LDL transports cholesterol to tissues, while HDL delivers it away from tissues.
This argument is misleading, and here's why. What matters is the quality of the cholesterol — when LDL carries damaged, oxidized fats and deposits them in artery walls, you're going to be at higher risk of heart disease. Oxidized fats come from overly processed polyunsaturated fats (PUFAs) found in vegetable oils such as canola, soybean, and corn oils. Too many of these damaged fats — in your cells, tissues, and the like — cause widespread inflammation and disease. So what really matters is not how much LDL cholesterol you have, but how oxidized the cholesterol is. Learn more about the different types of cholesterol here.
If you're eating a diet high in nutrient-dense, anti-inflammatory foods, you probably don't have a problem with excess PUFAs in your body. If you're following the standard American diet and eating a lot of processed foods high in vegetable oils, then you may want to consider switching up your routine. Learn more about the different dietary fats here.
Related: Everything You Know About Cholesterol Is Wrong
Guidelines on healthy eggs
Here's the thing — where the egg is from, and how it's cooked, plays a big role. So do it the Bulletproof way, and follow these guidelines when choosing and cooking eggs:
Eat organic, pastured eggs: Pastured eggs come from chickens that have had a good life roaming freely outdoors, pecking at plants and insects. And when they're given feed, it's organic. Why does this matter? Well, the chickens are happier, for one. And being Bulletproof means caring about the welfare of animals and how they are raised. Secondly, pastured eggs are better for you. A 2007 study found that eggs from chickens fed grain had lower levels of vitamin E, vitamin A, and omega-3 fatty acids.[]
Leave the yolk soft: Most of the nutrients in eggs — minus potassium and some amino acids — are in the yolks. So skip the egg-white omelettes, they aren't Bulletproof! And make sure to keep the yolk soft, to retain nutrients and keep the fat in the egg from oxidizing. Poaching in water is generally best. You can also use a sous vide to regulate the temperature. Learn more here about Bulletproof cooking methods. Or do what I do and mix a raw yolk into your Bulletproof Coffee or smoothie.
Rule out an egg allergy: Eggs may be nutrient powerhouses, but if you have an egg allergy, eating them won't do you any favors. Try an elimination diet to test your reaction to eggs, and other common allergens.
Healthy egg recipes
Bulletproof Egg Latte
Avocado oil mayo
Keto Eggs Benedict
It's Time for an Evolution: The Human Upgrade with Dave Asprey – #870
Why Women Need Fat to Lose Weight and Be Healthy
New "Eat More Fat" Infographic: Gary Taubes' "Why We Get Fat" in a Nutshell
DHA Benefits: Why Getting the Right Amount of Fish Oil Matters
Bouncing Back After a Traumatic Brain Injury
What to Look for in a Krill Oil Supplement
Dave Asprey is the founder of Bulletproof, and creator of the widely-popular Bulletproof Coffee. He is a four-time New York Times bestselling author, host of the Webby award-winning podcast Bulletproof Radio, and has been featured on the Today show, Fox News, Nightline, Dr. Oz, and many more.
Affiliate Disclosure & Health Claims


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Q: Add a separator every 3 item in flatlist - React Native How can I add a separator for every 3 items in flatlist? I can just add a separator after every 1 item. I did not find a prop for that. Here are my codes:

import React from 'react';
import { SafeAreaView, View, FlatList, StyleSheet, Text} from 'react-native';

const DATA = [
    {
        id: 1,
        title: 'Item 1',
    },

    {
        id: 2,
        title: 'Item 2',
    },
    {
        id: 3,
        title: 'Item 3',
    },
    {
        id: 4,
        title: ' Item 4',
    },
    {
        id: 5,
        title: 'Item 5',
    },
    {
        id: 6,
        title: 'Item 6',
    },
    {
        id: 7,
        title: 'Item 7',
    },
];

const App = () => {

    const renderItem = ({ item }) => (
        <View style={styles.item}>
            <Text style={styles.title}>{item.title}</Text>
        </View>
    );

    const seperator = () => {
        return (
            <View style={styles.seperator} />
        )
    }

    return (
        <SafeAreaView style={styles.container}>
            <FlatList
                data={DATA}
                renderItem={renderItem}
                keyExtractor={(items) => items.id}
                ItemSeparatorComponent={seperator}
            />
        </SafeAreaView>
    );
}

const styles = StyleSheet.create({
    container: {
        flex: 1,
    },
    item: {
        backgroundColor: '#f9c2ff',
        padding: 10,
        marginVertical: 8,
        marginHorizontal: 16,
    },
    title: {
        fontSize: 32,
    },
    seperator: {
        width: 300,
        height: 10,
        backgroundColor: 'red'
    }
});

export default App;

My app looks likes:

But I want to make that:

How can I add a separator for every 3 items in flatlist? I can just add a separator after every 1 item. I did not find a prop for that.

A: In case your data items do not have an id or a property that can easily distinguish two items, consider using a counter to keep track of how many times your separator function was called.
However, it is important to work with some key in keyExtractor, because it is used for caching and as the react key to track item re-ordering.
For this case, anyways, useRef hook can be used, since:

useRef returns a mutable ref object whose .current property is initialized to the passed argument

Note that it would still be doable if you've chosen useState hook instead, but probably more verbose.
import { useRef } from 'react'

let count = useRef(0)
const seperator = (e) => {
        count.current += 1
        return (
          (count.current % 3 == 0) ? <View style={styles.seperator}/>
                                   : null
       )
}

return (
        <SafeAreaView style={styles.container}>
            <FlatList
                data={DATA}
                renderItem={renderItem}
                ItemSeparatorComponent={(e) => seperator(e)}
            />
        </SafeAreaView>
)

Since it's mutable, add one unit each time the function is called

A: First, pass an arrow function receiving an argument. In this case, it's e, which holds the object (for instance the first):

{"highlighted":false,"leadingItem":{"id":1,"title":"Item 1"}}

So it's an easy approach, get the id and check if its %3 === 0. Take a look:
 const seperator = (e) => {
        return (
          (e.leadingItem.id % 3 == 0) ? <View style={styles.seperator}/>
                                      : null

        )
    }

And then
return (
        <SafeAreaView style={styles.container}>
            <FlatList
                data={DATA}
                renderItem={renderItem}
                keyExtractor={(items) => items.id}
                ItemSeparatorComponent={(e) => seperator(e)}
            />
        </SafeAreaView>
    );

As you can see in this working example

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange