text:
Sea Level Speculation Irresponsibly Threatens Property Owners
Guest Blogger / September 26, 2018
By Jim Steele
Director emeritus Sierra Nevada Field Campus, San Francisco State University and author of Landscapes & Cycles: An Environmentalist's Journey to Climate Skepticism
Pacifica California, just south of San Francisco, is my adopted hometown of 25 years. It has garnered national attention as an icon of dangerous sea level rise as eroding cliffs dangled homes over ocean bluffs (discussed in a WUWT post a few years ago). To the delight of property owners and the dismay of environmental extremists, I became a member of Pacifica's Community Working Group on Sea Level Rise. Governor Jerry Brown's California Coastal Commission has advised coastal cities to consider that by the year 2100 we should expect a range of sea level rise from 3 to 10 feet due to climate change. Based on such predictions the city will map flood zones, and properties in those zones could suffer from Coastal Commission restrictions that will devalue their property.
The Coastal Commission also pushed Pacifica to include 'managed retreat" as one adaptation strategy that could sacrifice people's homes. The policy "allows long term shore recession over time, requiring the removal or relocation of structures and infrastructure, realignment of roads, etc." The Coastal Commission prefers managed retreat versus armoring sea bluffs, arguing our beaches are maintained by locally eroded sediments. However, studies show our beaches are maintained primarily by sediments flowing from the Sierra Nevada that reach our coast via the San Francisco Bay. Extreme environmentalists have argued in favor of managed retreat, wanting nature to take its course, despite negative effects for property owners. They argued it is the most inexpensive option for city tax payers. However, citizens directly impacted do not want their property values to suffer based on shaky sea level predictions. Thus there has been a fierce public debate on sea level rise adaptation strategies for Pacifica, as elsewhere, and was just picked up by E&E News and reprinted in Scientific American under the title Prepare for 10 Feet of Sea Level Rise, California Commission Tells Coastal Cities.
I have argued at every meeting that a 3- to 10-foot sea level rise is based only on the most extreme untested speculation. At the very least Pacifica can wait 20 years to test the validity of these extreme sea level rise hypotheses before enacting policy. Scientific American accurately reported, "Some of the climate change exaggerations of 3 feet of sea-level rise is equal to fearmongering," stated Jim Steele, with the Community Working Group on Sea Level Rise in Pacifica," then continuing my comments, "sea level has risen about 8 inches over the last century, a rate of about 2 millimeters a year. If that rate continued, it would take 144 years to rise just 1 foot." What reporters failed to mention is I also stated from 1980 to 2014 there has been absolutely no rising sea level trend for San Francisco (as well as the west coast of the Americas) as seen in graph below. However, I suspect changing winds associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, California's sea level rise will revert back to 2 mm/year and perhaps increase to 3 mm/year over the next 2 decades.
Disentangling Natural Oscillations from Anthropogenic Causes
Our public discussions had focused only on adaptation policies based on the Coastal Commission's sea level rise estimates. But because the validity of those estimates had not been discussed, I sponsored a public panel discussion event: The Science and Uncertainty of Sea Level Rise: 8 inches or 10 feet by 2100? David Behar, the Climate Program Director for the San Francisco Public Utilities Commission joined me. In 2013 former Interior Secretary Sally Jewell appointed him co-chair of the federal Advisory Committee on Climate Change and Natural Resource Science, so it was a balanced panel. Behar is responsible for guiding San Francisco's adaptation policies. His belief was rates if regional sea level rise would return to 2 mm/year but continue to accelerate. How much acceleration to trust however was the critical question. Adaptation policy must rely on official scientific reports, but 5 official reports have all offered different guidance, making formulation of adaptation policies very difficult. Because the more extreme estimates, such as 10 feet by the year 2100 were untested speculation, he advocated adopting middle of the road estimates on sea level rise acceleration.
I argued whether you believe recent warming is natural or anthropogenic, warming can enhance monsoons that store more water on the land, and climate models predict warming will increase snow accumulation over Greenland and Antarctica. Such dynamics counteract sea level rise. Furthermore the 20th century experienced periods with greater acceleration of sea level rise than satellites have observed over the recent decade. So, I argued we must disentangle natural oscillation effects from any CO2-driven effects to scientifically guide adaptation policies. Thus, we need about 20 years of more data.
In contrast to concerns that rates of sea level rise have increased to ~3.1 mm/yr, 20th century tide gauge analyses revealed rates of rise of 4+ mm/ year every 20 years from 1900 to 2000 as illustrated in the graph below from Holgate 2007. The IPCC reported a similar range of acceleration but it was restricted to the 1930s and 40s using a different set of tide gauges that were averaged over longer time periods. These observed oscillating rates of sea level rise can be attributed to natural variations.
The twenty-year periods of sea level acceleration can be explained in part by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation's (PDO) effect on the winds and El Niño's. A positive PDO results in more El Nino events during which a greater proportion of rain falls back on the oceans causing global sea levels to rise. In contrast during a negative PDO, more La Nina events enhance the Asian and Australian monsoons so that more rain falls on land, causing sea levels to fall. In 2010-11 sea levels fell by 7 mm, despite extreme melting in Greenland. Two decades of satellite altimetry data also detected oscillating rates of sea level rise, but misleading adjustments have obscured those results.
From 1994 – 2002 satellites detected a 3.5 mm/yr acceleration in the rate of sea level rise, and CO2-modelers boasted that was just what their models predicted. However, from 2003–2011 the rate of sea level rise fell to 2.4 mm/yr. The 5 groups that process altimetry data all agreed on the observed deceleration (graph "a" below). However leading sea level researchers published concerns that a deceleration could be "an observation exploited by climate sceptics to refute global warming", so they adjusted their altimetry data by removing suspected ENSO-PDO effects. Instead of natural oscillating rates of sea level rise with a recent deceleration from 2003-2011, global sea level was then reported as having jumped to an average rise of 3.3 mm/ year as seen in their adjustments in graph "b".
The Pacifica extremists in favor of sacrificing homes and businesses to managed retreat argued those rising rates of sea level would continue as CO2-induced warming continued to rapid/y melt Greenland and Antarctica. The result would be sea levels far beyond what any sea walls could protect. I suggested to a few extremists that in reality Greenland's ice accumulation oscillates and it had actually gained ice over the last two years (See DMI data discussed by David Burton on WUWT). But they scoffed at that fact, saying it simply couldn't be true. In attempt to heal our divided citizenry, I invited a few of the more fervent extremists to go have a drink, and respectfully discuss the science. They replied, "we do not want to discuss the science," and not one of them attended our subsequent public panel discussion The Science and Uncertainty of Sea Level Rise: 8 inches or 10 feet by 2100?
As I discussed on the panel, scientists reported Greenland had been cooling from 1940 to 2000, and that cooling was hypothesized to be due to increasing cloudiness. As shown in the graph below from Fettweis (2017) Reconstructions of the 1900–2015 Greenland ice sheet surface mass, ice accumulation was reduced during the well-documented natural warm period in the 1930s. Afterwards ice accumulated reaching Greenland's greatest rates of the 20th century between the 1970s and 90s. As a rule of thumb if ice accumulation exceeds 400 to 500 Gigatons/year, it counteracts ice loss from glacial calving and basal melting, so Greenland gains ice. Indeed, global climate models predict that on a warming planet, whether natural or anthropogenic, evaporation increases producing more precipitation and more ice over the polar ice sheets. As illustrated between the 1960s and 1990s, Greenland typically gained more than 500 Gt/yr and the IPCC deemed Greenland's ice mass was stable or slightly increasing with no contribution to rising sea level. However, between the late 1990s and 2012, correlating with less clouds, more solar heating and the negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Greenland did not accumulate enough surface ice to balance glacial discharge. That triggered global warming alarmists' worst fears.
But as natural oscillations would predict, there would be no runaway melting. Greenland has now cycled back to gaining ice the last few years. In addition to the NAO's effect on cloudiness, I had predicted that the NAO's effect on warm intruding currents reaching Greenland's shores would soon reverse and we should expect Greenland to gain ice by 2015. I was off by only one year.
Nonetheless, if Greenland has truly been responsible for any sea level acceleration from 1990-2012, with an estimated contribution of about 0.8 mm/yr, we should now observe sea level rates to fall by 0.8 mm/yr as Greenland now gains ice. So again, I advised our audience we must disentangle natural oscillations, if we are to let the best science guide sea level rise estimates and our adaptation policies.
Welcome to the Adjustocene
The suggested steady 3.3 mm/year rise since 1992 conflicted with CO2-driven model predictions of acceleration. So, based on the difficulties of calibrating altimetry with tide gauge data, various researchers claimed satellite drift and biases had over-estimated early estimates of sea level rise from 1994-2002. Various adjustments were then evoked, and varying rates of sea level rise published. New global sea level estimates rose at an accelerating rate from 1.8 in 1993 to 3.9 mm/yr today, others at 2.2 mm/yr in 1993 to 3.3 mm/yr in 2014, yet others found satellite adjustments lowered the average rate of sea level rise to 2.6 mm/yr over that same period. Elsewhere Harvard geophysicists were analyzing the effects of mass change on the earth's rotation and wobble and were disturbed by the misfit between geophysical observations and sea level estimates. They argued that only if 20th century sea level rise was limited to 1.2 mm/yr could there be a good fit with geophysical expectations.
The GRACE satellite mission launched in 2002 allowed scientists to measure how much meltwater was being added mass to ocean volumes. However, GRACE data is also fraught with adjustments. As shown in the graph from Cazenave 2008, quality-controlled gravity data with no adjustments found no added mass to the world's oceans between 2003 and 2008. That was consistent with NASA scientists who determined Antarctica had been accumulating more ice over eastern Antarctic than was being lost in western Antarctica, and thus Antarctica was lowering sea level, and counteracting and Greenland contributions.
However, workers studying Glacial Isostatic Adjustments (GIA) suggested the ocean's basins are still adjusting to ice age glacier loads and suggested GRACE estimates of sea level rise should add 1 to 2 mm of sea level rise to their observed data. Cazenave chose to add 2 mm/yr, while others subjectively chose to only add 1 mm/yr in other studies. Elsewhere researchers found "GIA models may be unreliable, and that several recent secular Antarctic ice mass loss estimates are systematically biased, mainly too high." Improving global coverage from GPS systems will allow us to determine which GIA models are more valid. So again, I argued we need a decade or two to test which GIA models can be appropriately applied to sea level change.
Finally, the IMBIE team recently reported western Antarctica ice loss has tripled over the past 2 decades, predicting accelerating ice loss to continue. Their conclusions that Antarctica as a whole was also losing ice were based on choice of adjustments, and so they suggested east Antarctica gained only 5 Gt/yr and could not offset ice losses. That contrasted with the NASA team's estimate that eastern Antarctica was gaining 185 Gt/year. Whose adjustments to trust was discussed here. Nonetheless environmental extremists echoed only IMBIE's conclusions to justify managed retreat. Again, I argued we must disentangle natural oscillations from any anthropogenic causes. Whatever amount of steady ice accumulates over east Antarctica, the basal melting of west Antarctica's submerged glaciers will always oscillate. ENSO events affect the easterly winds promoting ~20-year episodes of greater upwelling (A) of relatively warm deep waters that accelerate melt of submerged grounding points of Amundsen Sea glaciers, followed by ~20-year episodes of reduced melting (B).
Sadly, I doubt the science I presented will sway extremists or mollify their paranoia that we will be overwhelmed by accelerating sea level rise. Unfortunately, the Coastal Commission argues the "best science available" suggests we consider the extreme 10-foot sea level rise by 2100. So extremists continue to push for managed retreat while home owners whose property values can be destroyed by Coastal Commission fiat will resist. Managed retreat and sea level rise are now front and center of Pacifica's upcoming local elections. I can only hope we elect councilors who will resist climate extremism. On the bright side, one candidate told me that my comments at public meetings had enticed them to buy my book, so they could take a closer look at climate change. And perhaps, other news outlets other than Scientific American will shine a spotlight on this critical sea level rise issue.
Jim Steele is author of Landscapes & Cycles: An Environmentalist's Journey to Climate Skepticism
September 26, 2018 in Sea level.
L. A. Time's sea level rise anti-science climate alarmist propaganda campaign
UN Chief Poses For TIME Cover Off 'Sinking' Pacific Island Nation That's Actually Growing In Size
← China in Crisis? Climate Change, Water Contamination Looming Threats
The BBC formally bans climate skeptics →
52 thoughts on "Sea Level Speculation Irresponsibly Threatens Property Owners"
Chaamjamal says:
So irresponsible to keep on using fossil fuels when climate science has provided empirical evidence that relates sea level rise directly to emissions.
Please see
https://tambonthongchai.com/2018/09/14/cumulativeslr/
SARCASM ALERT
LOL….I thought you lost your meds
Bryan A says:
Let Property Devaluation take it's course.
Wakyfornia is a Prop 13 State which allows for Property Taxation to equal around 1% Gross Property Valuation.
If the $5M coastal parcel is devalued to $150k due to POTENTIAL erosion or Sea Level Possibilities, Their Property Tax should also drop from $50k per year to $1,500 PER YEAR vastly decreasing State Coffers
Santa says:
The Ministary Of «Truth» is at work?
Dr. S. Jeevananda Reddy says:
Good report.
At several forums/publications to counter the sea level rise theories, I used to refer the San Francisco Airport where I did not noticed any change in sea level during my several visits.
The first figure supports, what I said is correct. Once again thank the author of the article for such a good and bold work.
Dr. S. Jeevananda Reddy
Yes, generally very interesting. I actually gave up all interest in satellite altimetry years ago when they started refusing to make available non GAIA-rigged versions of the data. Though I can understand someone who has property and their home at stake has to counter this BS propaganda, parading as science.
So again, I argued we need a decade or two to test which GIA models can be appropriately applied to sea level change.
GAIA adjustments are a scam in relation to REAL coastal sea levels. Bolder CU present "mean sea level" data but it is a sea level which floats , phantom like, every higher above the waves. They also have non optional inverse barometer adjustments which are supposed to adjust for local differences in atm pressure raising or lowering sea level. However, this can not logically affect the global SL. What goes up , must come down. You can push and shove all you want the volume of water remains the same.
Oddly they apply this to global means are refuse to supply the data without this "correction". I would bet dollars to doughnuts that it is making a difference to global mean sea level and that is why this will not show the two.
The ONLY sea level which is meaningful to coastal communities is the one measured at the end of the pier . End of story.
Did you really expect to notice change in bay level at SFO? What are the expected differences, if any, of the level of the Bay and the level of the sea (which is more than 10 miles away)? Over what period did you make your observations? (days, weeks, years). were all you observations taken at the same time relative to the tide (e.g., high or low)?
Unfortunately, sloppy statements like yours undermine legitimate scientific differences among qualified observers. Its like someone disputing, say, Arctic ice density having never set foot in the Arctic.
If sea level is raising at SFO, by this time airport should have sea water. Is it not so?
Few years back at TROPMET symposium in Hyderabad, Dr. P.K.Das, former DDGF presented a talk on sea level after organizers felicitated to him. I asked a question, what is the scenario of Indian coast lines. He replied that out of 12 measuring stations, at 8 stations there was no change and at the remaining 4 it downside. But later reports say different stories.
Before we go on saying sea level is raising, take each station and look at the reasons for raise or fall. For example in Italy coastal wells show no change. Same is the case with SFO – airport.
commieBob says:
Was I dreaming?
I thought I saw a story saying that it had been found that satellite measurements of sea level over the last decades had been found to be in error. The satellite data had overstated sea level rise by a factor of two.
Bob: The most recent revision was only to the record from the first satellite covering 1993-2000. That reduced the overall rate of rise to a little less than 3 cm/decade from a little above. It also allowed the "detection" of significant acceleration for the first time – enough acceleration to reach the midpoint of the IPCC's projections about to about twice 20th century SLR.
Jeff in Calgary says:
Another adjustment that reduces the past thereby increasing the present. All to make it look worse than we thought.
Jeff: I'm glad you have read the papers and know that this adjustment is totally bogus. /sarcasm. The adjustment reduced the 25-year rate of SLR AND produced a detectable amount of acceleration in agreement with modest levels of SLR for the 21st century. If all they wanted to do was "make things worse than we thought", they could have increased the rate of SLR reported by the most recent satellites, further increasing (rather than reducing) the 25-year rate, AND producing enough acceleration to produce alarming levels of SLR in the 21st century.
There ARE serious difficulties in measuring the rate of SLR from space. Satellites produce a massive number of data points making the confidence interval for rise relatively small. However, the size of the correction factors (for humidity, ionosphere, waves, spray, orbital parameters) are huge (feet). The potential for a systematic error are high – and there have already been at least three large systematic corrections, counting the latest (which cut the rate of SLR for the first satellite by a factor of 2).
When one assumes that everything the turns out the opposite from what one prefers is wrong, it renders one TOTALLY INCAPABLE of learning something new that doesn't agree with your personal biases. This is known as confirmation bias. It took the Catholic Church a half a millennium to recognize that the Earth goes around the sun. Donald Trump believes more people attended his inauguration that Obama's. Flat-Earthers know the Earth isn't round. Have you joined that club?
Jim Steele says:
There are very good reasons to believe the acceleration estimates are bogus. Frank has pushed some "easy arithmetic" based on simplistic analyses that assumes acceleration will continue and sea level will rise at rates suggested by the IPCC. But Frank seems to be in denial about episodes of deceleration.
Franks needs to read Holgate 2007 whose graph shows sea levels rates have oscillated between 0 and 4 mm/year every 20 years.
The adjustments created the greatest acceleration despite a 7mm drop in sea level 2010-2011 due to greater water storage on land during La Ninas. Although sea level rise rates actually fell according to altimetry data, several authors argued it happened because more water was being stored on land due to La Nina like circulation patterns. Using a coulda-woulda-shoulda argument that increased water storage masked the "real rate" of sea level rise, they removed ENSO effects to publish a virtual sea level rise.
Recent sea level rates of accelerated rise were attributed to increasing melt of Greenland's ice cap, but that melt peaked in 2012. Since then there was less and less melt so that Greenland gained ice and reduced the rate of sea level rise so that only an IPCC apologist would believe sea level rise is still accelerating
Frank appears to be the only one here who thinks like a flat earther!
Jim Steele: Thank you for the reply. You are, of course, completely correct that I have made unstated assumptions by assuming constant constant acceleration. I still think those assumptions are the simplest way to convince the uninformed about the absurdity of 1 m of SLR by the end of the century.
In a certain sense, Jim is correct that I am in "denial" about the episodes of deceleration in the record of SLR. I've encountered the graph from Holgate (2007), never understood it, and dismissed it. A gross mistake. Actually, I first mentally tried drawing a straight line through those peaks and valleys and seeing if all of the straight line was within the 95% confidence interval for the data. (Plots are +/- 1 std.) Two stds comes close to permitting a roughly constant rise, but still is not good enough. So this time I looked more carefully at the paper, and then at Holgate (2004) which contains far more information.
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2004GL019626
Holgate is plotting the average rate for SLR FOR A DECADE every year. How accurately can we measure average SLR for one decade at one tide gauge, when properly accounting for the autocorrelated noise in the data? My understanding is that many tide gauges show rates something like 3+/-8 mm/y (95% ci) for periods as short as a decade. If you go out to 20 years, maybe you get something like 3+/-1 mm/y, perhaps barely enough to say SLR rose. And when you get out to 40 years for a single tide gauge, perhaps the confidence interval is down to a semi-usable 3+/-1 mm/y.
Assuming I am correct (I haven't personally experimented with tide gauge data, only altimetry data), the signal in decadal SLR from a single tide gauge is dominated by noise. Holgate now averages tide gauges to get 13 regional composites with cover only part of the Earth. Three of these regions contain only 2 or 3 stations – probably not enough to average out the noise. Two of the three regions (SE Pacific and SW Atlantic) do show the greatest variability.
Steve McIntyre learned a lot by asking which sets of tree ring data contained a hockey stick (only one or two) and which were mostly noise. Channeling my inner Steve McIntyre, what regions on the globe are producing these massive swings in the rate of SLR. See Figure 3 below. Let's look at the biggest deceleration from +5 mm/yr in 1980 to -1 mm/yr in 1988. Is this a global phenomena? No, the SE Pacific decelerates from about +10 mm/yr to -10 mm/yr and the SW Atlantic from +15 mm/yr to -5 mm/yr. Are these the only contributors to the deceleration? No, but a large fraction of the deceleration COULD be due to these regions with the noisiest data.
Next. I want to know how much of the wild swings is due to application of the inverse barometer to account for changing surface air pressure.
https://wol-prod-cdn.literatumonline.com/cms/attachment/5a2a917e-661a-42c3-bcd3-baf3c3d1f204/grl18145-fig-0002.png
Figure 2. Global mean sea level trends (overlapping 10 year periods) corrected for GIA. Dotted line indicates the global average rate of 1.7 mm yr−1
https://wol-prod-cdn.literatumonline.com/cms/attachment/f7130def-4345-4940-a25e-dd1c99ad3e1f/grl18145-fig-0003.png
Figure 3. Regional trends around (a) Europe (b) the Atlantic and (c) the Pacific. Trends have been offset by 5 mm yr−1 from each other for clarity.
Were there really big swings in the rate of SLR or is this noise? Or did winds on the average temporarily blow water away from the majority of tide gauges for a few years? Or was it caused by correction for inverse barometer? I'm not convinced we know. Surely someone else must have reanalyzed this data in the past 10 years.
Jim Steele: Thanks for the comments. Assuming sea level rises with a constant acceleration is an oversimplification. Nevertheless, I still think it is the best way to illustrate the folly of 1+ m of SLR by the end of the century. The amount of acceleration currently detected (if any) is far too small. We should have more than a half-century of lead time between detection of substantial acceleration and 1+ m of SLR in a century.
You are correct that I have ignored signs of deceleration in Holgate's work. I didn't understand it, so I ignored it. Bad mistake. Actually, first I looked at the confidence intervals (the ci's shown are 1 STD) to see if a constant rate were possible. No.
So I read Holgate (2007) and the more useful Holgate (2004). The graphs are of SLR averaged over a decade. As I understand it – and I could be wrong – the data from a single tide gauge is incapable of telling us anything useful about SLR when you consider the 95% ci after correcting for autocorrelation. The confidence interval is usually much wider than the central estimate: say 2+/-5 mm/yr. If you look at 20-year averages, maybe you get 2+/-2 mm/yr. And if you look at an average over 40 years, maybe you get something meaningful like 2.0+/-0.5 mm/yr.
Holgate then combines records that are mostly noise into regional composites. Three of those regional composites contain only 2 or 3 tide gauges: SE Pacific, SW Atlantic and Australia. They may still be mostly noise. If you look at Figure 3 in Holgate (2004), you'll see that SE Pacific and SW Atlantic show the greatest variation in SLR.
Steve McIntyre used to look carefully at proxy records to see which ones were hockeysticks (only a few) and which were noise (most). Channeling my inner McIntyre, let's ask which regions are responsible for most of the large swings in the rate of SLR. Let's pick the fall from +5 mm/yr in 1980 to -1 mm/yr in 1987/8. The rate of SLR dropped about 20 mm/yr in SE Pacific and SW Atlantic over this period. Did Holgate weight each region or each tide gauge equally? Most of the other regions don't show a big change in SLR between 1980 and 1987. I think the 1980 to 1987 drop could be an artifact of the noisy signal from limited set of tide gauges. However, it would take a lot of work to figure out how Holgate arrived at his results.
If the shift of wind during a strong El Nino can raise sea level by about a foot off Peru and lower it by about a foot in the Western Pacific, can other weather patterns blow water away from most tide gauges (causing the apparent rate of SLR to fall)? Not in the North Atlantic. There is no where to hide. Not in the Northwest Pacific. Elsewhere, maybe.
donb says:
Frank & Steve,
Don't think of sea level as having one value with one rise rate; it is far from either, but varies considerably over place and time. Tidal sea rise data are local and influenced by many factors. GPS data show that land movement up and down (+-) of zero to 2 mm/yr are common. Local variations in tides, currents, temperature, pressure, etc. create differences among tidal locations.
Satellite data measure the open ocean. That also varies in height, but satellites average this out. On cannot compare any specific tidal gauge to satellite data.
However, when many tidal data are corrected for land movement, they can be compared to satellite data. Such large tidal compilations give sea rise rates generally over 1.1-1.9 mm/yr up to about 1990, when the tidal rates rise to ~3 mm/yr, similar to satellite data (available only after ~mid-90s). Because tidal and satellite data are acquired by different means with different corrections, agreement between the two lends their results some credence.
Compilations of many tidal data suggest some correlation with sea rise rates and global temperature. This is not surprising, considering that ocean thermal expansion is over 40% of the cause of sea rise. Generally sea rise rates vary over decadal time periods, and within a given period the rise rate is observed to vary from ~zero to over 4 mm/yr.
donb: You are certainly correct about the problem of vertical land motion (VLM). Some tide gauge records have been corrected for VLM by means of a GPS receiver directly attached to the structure with the tide gauge and some by GPS receivers nearby. All are often corrected for VLM using one of many global MODELS for glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA, rebound in some regions and subsidence in others). Tide gauges are also often corrected for changes in barometric pressure. I was generally referring to tide gauge data properly corrected for VLM and pressure.
Local sea level also varies with the prevailing wind. The winds that blow from West to East during an El Nino move a tremendous amount of water across the Pacific and create local SLR in Peru and local SLR fall in the Western Pacific. The 10-year rate of SLR in these locations that begins or ends with an El Nino is likely to show huge changes in the rate of SLR that have nothing to do with global changes. Water can literally be blown away from or towards tide gauges for a whole year by El Nino and probably for decades by AMO and PDO. Ocean current also effect sea level. (I'm told that the there has been little SLR at the Battery tide gauge in NY during one phase of AMO and much more during the other). It is possible that Holgate's analysis is distorted because of these problems (but that is a hypothesis at best or unsupported speculation.)
donb wrote: "Satellite data measure the open ocean. That also varies in height, but satellites average this out. On cannot compare any specific tidal gauge to satellite data."
No one cares about sea level in the open ocean. Tide gauges are located exactly where SLR is going to cause the most damage. We would have been better off directly attaching state-of-the-art GPS equipment and a barometer to every tide gauge in the world instead getting involved with satellite altimetry.
As it turns out, the best satellite altimetry can do is keep track of satellite drift to within 1 cm/yr in the vertical direction, and the results aren't usually this good. So it is impossible to directly measure sea level from space. (Satellite altimetry groups don't like to publicize this problem. When AR3 was being drafted around 1999 – after six years of satellite data – no conclusions about SLR were drawn from this data because of this problem.) Since about 2000, all groups are calculating the height of the satellite orbit (calibrating) by measuring the distance down to the sea at a various sites, beginning with "Harvest", an abandon oil drilling platform off of Southern California coast with a GPS receiver. More sites have been added. Of course, sea level rising measured by satellite altimetry is no more accurate that sea level rise measured at these calibrations sites! (Morner has been complaining about this unpublicized change in procedure/adjustments.) Only after calibration from sites near of at land can satellites measure sea level in the middle of the ocean. With data from millions of grid cells, the 95% confidence interval for sea level rise measure by satellite altimetry is only +/-0.4 mm/yr, but the potential exists for sizable SYSTEMATIC errors (much greater than +/-0.4 mm/yr) in this complicated measurement process. There have already been several such corrections.
There are different kinds of isostasy corrections.
Vertical land movement at/near the seashore of a tidal station, measured by GPS (some lidar techniques starting to be adopted), is used to correct individual tidal data in order to compare those data with other tidal stations or satellite data.
GIA stands for glacial isostatic adjustment and is generally applied only to satellite (0.3 mm/yr). The GIA corrects for the fact that the floors of ocean basins are sinking since land ice melted and underlying mantle is flowing back under continents. The GIA has no direct effect on tidal gauges.
For those living at a particular seashore, it is the uncorrected sea rise data at that site that is of importance.
Satellite of the open ocean relates to understanding the amount of new melt water being added to the ocean and how much the oceans are expanding due to heating. Sooner or later and in varying degrees, a larger ocean will affect all tidal data.
donb: It seems as if my replies have been held back or lost in moderation. I thought I submitted a long one to your comment. Here is a shorter version. The longer one may appear.
The orbits of the satellites are calibrated using tide gauges on the surface.
No one should care about sea level rise in the middle of the ocean. Tide gauges are located where rising SLR will cause the most damage. To fully understand the role of climate change, we need to understand how much of the SLR measured by tide gauges is caused by local VLM.
We also need to recognize that climate shifts create winds and currents that move water towards and away from various tide gauges. ENSO has a huge effect in the Pacific. Given all the noise in the data from a single tide gauge and other problems, decadal rates of SLR from a single tide gauge are meaningless. And you can't average decadal tide gauge data into a composite data set without dealing with VLM first. Unfortunately, instead of simply attaching a good GPS and barometer to every tide gauge, climate science invested in satellite altimetry, which has the potential of large systematic errors influencing the final result. There are five groups that report SLR, but they don't individually process all of the inputs (as UAH and RSS do). As best I can tell, they jointly process much of the data and then grid it differently.
Donb wrote: "GIA stands for glacial isostatic adjustment and is generally applied only to satellite (0.3 mm/yr). The GIA corrects for the fact that the floors of ocean basins are sinking since land ice melted and underlying mantle is flowing back under continents. The GIA has no direct effect on tidal gauges."
There is a global GIA adjustment that is applied to global SLR data, stupidly applied IMO because SLR rise without GIA + VLM is what raises sea level on the coast where people live. There are several models of GIA that specify how much post glacial rebound and subsidence occur at every location on the planet. These local corrections can be applied to individual tide gauges – sometimes ignoring local GPS data on VLM. The global estimate for GIA is a composite of all local estimates, including subsiding sea floors.
I understand that scientists what to validate their models by showing that thermal expansion plus ice cap melting – GIA (and a few minor phenomena) account for the observed amount of SLR everywhere on the planet. But policymakers only need to know about SLR rise on their coasts, how much is due to climate change and how much is due to VLM. They have no way of understanding the potential systematic errors in satellite altimetry, nor the confirmation bias that influences every publication that refines some aspect of the problem and then concludes that the "SLR budget is closed". The "budget is closed" by the choice of GIA model, choices made when calibrating satellite orbits and a host of other factors. Policymakers should be given the best possible processing of tide gauge data, because that is the simplest and most direct measure of the real problem.
Kenji says:
Every single CA bureaucratic entity, city, county, and State has tried to enact severe restrictions on development and building within their "projected" expanded sea level rise inundation zones.
https://sfpublicpress.org/news/searise/2017-04/mapping-the-shoreline-building-boom-as-seas-rise
Thankfully, the Courts have overturned their attempt to de facto seize private property rights.
Neil Jordan says:
FEMA's California Coastal Analysis and Mapping Project/Open Pacific Coast (CCAMP/OPC) should drive a stake through the heart of this beast, but probably won't. The study is a joint effort with FEMA, NOAA, and Scripps Institution of Oceanography. Link, but note that the site will be deactivated October 1st.
http://www.r9map.org/Pages/CCamp-Main.aspx/
"California Coastal Analysis and Mapping Project (CCAMP)
This Website Will Be Deactivated As Of 10/1/2018
Region IX is initiating flood studies/mapping projects in coastal areas as a result of Congressional appropriations for Flood Hazard Mapping under Risk MAP . These efforts will address gaps in required engineering and mapping for high flood risk areas impacted by coastal flooding. Cumulatively, these flood studies/mapping projects are being referred to as the California Coastal Analysis and Mapping Project (CCAMP). "
Products are Intermediate Data Submittals in four volumes. Volume 2 Table 1 summarizes sea level trends, ranging from MINUS 0.65 mm/yr at Crescent City to PLUS 4.73 mm/yr at Humboldt North Spit. Average is 1.7 mm/yr, standard deviation is 1.2 mm/yr. Supplement 2 covers offshore water levels.
Policy trend weighted toward San Francisco's longest record is 1 to 2 mm/yr net of subsidence or uplift.
Jim: For talking to non-technical audiences, I like to talk about SLR rise in terms of inches/decade and inches/decade/decade. Today, current estimates of SLR from satellite altimetry are about 1 inch/decade and for the 20th century it was about 3/4 inch per decade. If SLR rise accelerates at 1 inch/decade/decade for the next eight decades, that is 2+3+4+5+6+7+8+9 = 44 inches by 2100. Anyone can do this arithmetic
Can't we wait a decade or two to see if today's rate of SLR double (to 2″/decade) or triples (to 3″/decade) before abandoning valuable property?
Nerem (2017) reported an acceleration of 0.084 +/-0.025 mm/y/y, or just about 1/3 inch/decade/decade. That arithmetic is simple too:
1.33 +1.67 + 2 + 2.33 + 2.67 + 3 + 3.33 + 3.67 = 20 inches ( 8 inches from the current rate plus 12 inches from acceleration. Just about the IPCC's central estimate.
http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2018/02/06/1717312115
Daily tides in Pacific range from 2 to 6 feet.
Explain this 50 year average:
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/plots/9414290_50yr.png
And correlate it to something that we can contribute to!
Freddie Stoller says:
If sea level continues to rise at this rate, it will take 400 years to reach the levels at the time the Etruscans lived. This means we are able to use some of their harbors which right now are located a few hundred meters inland.
Lasse: As you know from the storm surge that occurs with hurricanes, the height of the ocean depends on the wind speed and direction. During El Ninos, the shift in wind produces about 1 foot of SLR in Peru and 1 foot of SL fall in the Western Pacific. The slight changes in 50-average SLR you cite are probably associated with changes in the PDO. An informal analysis of Battery Point, NYC allegedly showed a dramatic change in SL that correlated perfectly with the AMO. There is nothing intrinsically "wrong" with the data you show.
Some suggest that rising sea levels will increase storm surge. However the latest report by Scripps suggests there has been NO trend in the level of storm surge along the California coast (despite sea level rise)
Read Bromirski (2017) Storm surge along the Pacific coast of North America
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/2016JC012178
spangled drongo says:
Jim, on the other side of the Pacific I built a sea wall across 3 adjoining blocks of land in 1963 in an estuarine location to AHD100 datum which is king tide level. Current highest astronomical tides are at least 6 inches lower than then. At another seafront I helped build a wall to that AHD100 datum in 1946 and it is a similar story today. About 6 inches lower. SLR isn't happening on the east coast of Australia.
"Scientific American" is no longer "scientific" or "American".
Sadly I was a lifetime subscriber until they went radical anti-CO2. There is so much data out there that is readily available to the least scientific reader that shows that this alarmism based on fossil fuel use is at the very least doubtful, that I could no longer trust them to be level-headed about climate fluxuations that just happened to heat the planet a little bit starting in the early 1950s.
rbabcock says:
Sea Level rise/fall ike Global Warming/Cooling; you can hide the facts only so long. There are places in the world that do have issues with increasing water levels, but these areas are subsiding in most cases because they are pumping water out of the ground. The Tidewater area of southeast Virginia is a prime example.
But "we are all going to die" headlines can only go so far before they are ignored by most of the public. There still is snow in the UK in winter, the Arctic still has ice and even the so called record warm water off Los Angeles this summer has been replaced by colder water.
The sad part is the CO2 induced global warming has become part of our lexicon and is stamped into all our young people's heads in school. It will take years to get it taken out. There is just too much money to be lost.
I might add there is currently a corollary fight going on in nutrition. A lot of studies (and actual research in the science behind it) are showing LDL cholesterol does not contribute to heart disease. Big pharma makes tens of billions on statins made to counter LDL. Let's see how this one plays out.
BallBounces says:
I am overlooking the Charlottetown harbour from my back yard. I want to assure coastal property owners all over the world that all is calm here today on the east coast of Canada. Will advise if any change.
Dave Burton says:
Exceptional work, Jim!
So I just did some reading on Wikipedia about dikes in Netherlands. They have been building dikes in the Netherlands for over 1000 years. But somehow this is beyond the capability for California? SFO is built on the ocean, and presumably will have to be abandoned with the retreat policy. Meanwhile, they are still working on improvements and additions and are building a new hotel. The authorities don't actually believe the ocean will rise as much as they say it will, or this wouldn't be happening.
Maybe they are trying to drive prices down so they can have better housing affordability numbers…
Richard Greene says:
Jeff in Calgary wrote:
"They have been building dikes in the Netherlands for over 1000 years.
But somehow this is beyond the capability for California? "
Due to the scientific fact
that each year living in CA
lowers the IQ by one point,
which has caused the dykes in California
to protest, marching in the streets,
between their Trump protests,
because they want the name to be spelled
"The California Dykes", not Dikes,
to celebrate "inclusion",
diversity and whatever else
lefties celebrate.
HD Hoese says:
The problem is actually the loss of wind! Bay isn't muddy enough anymore.
Influence of an Observed Decadal Decline in Wind Speed on Turbidity in the San Francisco Estuary—– (Open Access) "This decline in turbidity during an already seasonally low turbidity portion of the year has potential negative effects on habitat for endangered fish like the Delta Smelt which are more likely to be caught in relatively turbid water."
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12237-018-0403-x?wt_mc=alerts.TOCjournals&utm_source=toc&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=toc_12237_41_7
This is interesting because turbidity is seldom measured or experimentally studied, with a few important exceptions. Some of the data in this long paper don't seem all that significant and some winter months omitted which are part of the prediction in the abstract and conclusions. Nevertheless, this is a good thing to study, but the journal reviewers don't understand that there are pros and cons, IT'S ALWAYS BAD! That is BAD ECOLOGY. Or they don't even believe it, just throw it in.
Some fishes like clear water but the delta smelt is the Emperor. Interesting that it conflicts with seagrass imperatives, light somehow important there. Others are fighting mud.
The BADS (Ballads Always Detrimental Somewhere) always conflict with other BADS like windmills and bats.
Bob Burban says:
a 10-foot (3048 mm) rise by the year 2100 (i.e., in 82 years) implies a monthly rise of 3.1 mm. Should be easy enough to gauge progress of this marine incursion in a relatively short time.
Exactly. Anchor a stainless steel beam to bedrock and mark the projected high tide mark every month. Gather the coastal commission together at the monthly high tide to see where the water is measured at. Should be self-evident and educational.
Jim Whelan says:
Climate change or not, sea level rise or not, erosion continues and coastal cliffs will be undermined by waves and tides, ultimately collapsing.
beng135 says:
Prof Steele:
Sadly, I doubt the science I presented will sway extremists or mollify their paranoia that we will be overwhelmed by accelerating sea level rise.
I'd say, like me, you know the "scientists" aren't really paranoid or even slightly concerned about the sea-level itself. What they're concerned about is scaring the politicians enough to submit to their "recommendations" and maintaining their power over the situation. Power means continued grants, prestige and authority.
JBom says:
Psychopaths build 'castles in the clouds', whereas Sociopaths live in their 'castles in the clouds'.
More lively the "Commission" and extremists want the sea side property for development of High-rise 5-star hotels with gambling casino's for the Al Gore Jet-Setters and bring in money from child sex slave trafficking and narco cartels in addition to the "London Whales" lining the gambling tables.
"Sadly, I doubt the science I presented will sway extremists
or mollify their paranoia that we will be overwhelmed
by accelerating sea level rise."
To them "science" is any prediction of the future
that is bad news and can be blamed on humans.
Don K says:
3 to 10 foot SLR in 82 years corresponds to a SLR of 11 to 37mm/yr. And that assumes that Sea Level change accelerates to the higher rate instantaneously at midnight January 1 2019. That is, to say the least, not very likely..
GIA corrections to tide gauge elevation are conceptually valid, but pragmatically kind of uncertain. GIA modelling is, in fact, a bit questionable. "GIA corrections" to satellite observations are not meaningful for your purposes. AFAICS, they are used only to compute the Exaggerated Sea Level Rise (ESLR) reported by the satellite folks. The corrections need to be removed (multiply by 0.88) to get Eustatic Sea Level which is what tide gauges strive to estimate.
On top of all that, unless there is development at sea level in Pacifica, what you folks are concerned about is the erosion rate of your cliffs, not exactly how high the water will rise at the highest king tide. Converting sea level change to erosion rate is a much different problem than development along flat coastlines such as the US Gulf Coast. You folks probably need to be talking to Geologists and Civil Engineers who MAY actually know something rather than talking to climate "scientists" who are pretty much clueless.
If you do have development at sea level to worry about, you might want to consider giving the alarmists a foot or three extra on some types of development. Developers are likely to use the lowest estimate of storm surge they can get away with. That's probably OK for parking lots and bait shops. But you don't want a hospital with a foot or two of sea water sloshing around in the emergency room in the middle of a "500 year storm" which is quite possibly considerably more likely than the name suggests.
Sea rise rates over the open ocean, as satellite altimetry measure, is quite different from tidal gauge, near-shore sea rise. Tidal data vary considerably. Such variation persists even after GPS corrections are made for individual tidal data. However, after such GPs corrections, compilations of many tidal data show rise rates less than 2.0 prior to ~19990, and significant increase in rise rates after ~1990 to about 3.0, which are roughly comparable to satellite altimetry data.
This says nothing about what sea rise at San Fran. will be in the future. However, good evidence indicates that on average, sea rise follows global temperature.
donb,
The Holgate 2007 data does not show that rates of SLR follow global temperatures, but suggest other natural dynamics operating on ~20 year time scales
The IPCC graph of rates of SLR show greater rates of SLR in the 30s and 40s. What does that say about contributions from global temperature?
https://dddusmma.files.wordpress.com/2016/03/sea-level-rise-ipcc-ar5.jpg
Estimates of sea level rise due to ocean warming and expansion range from 0.3 mm/yr to 1.9 mm.yr.
Contributions from Greenland and Antarctic ice melt do not correlate with global temperature change, as Greenland is now gaining ice and reducing SLR. While there are vast differences in estimates of Antarctic contributions.
From a societal point of view, only relative SLR measured by tide gauges that is important because it is local sea level rise that will impact humans
The graph you show does display some correlation with global temperature, as do similar graphs of combined altimetry data from other authors. Global temp decreased ~1910 and ~1960 and peaked ~1940 & 2000. Several individual tidal data show similar sea rise variations over ~decadal time periods. One has to examine the trend segments against all the tidal statistical noise.
The Holgate data are a limited set. Several authors have combined hundreds of individual tidal data, corrected for variable land movement obtained by GPS. Presumably these better average out individual tidal variations because of the many local sea level variations due to e.g., tides, currents, temperature, etc., etc.
Tidal and satellite data measure different beasts and require different corrections. Satellite data are more concerned with the causes (thermal expansion and ice melting), whereas inhabitants of most seashores are concerned with local tidal data.
See these references.
Legeais et al Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 10, 281–301, 2018
https://www.earth-syst-sci-data.net/10/281/2018/essd-10-281-2018.pdf
https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-281-2018
You make some odd distinctions between altimetry and tide gauges even though all the adjustments to altimetry data has been due to calibration problems with tide gauge data.
You link to papers claiming a steady 3.3 mm/yr rate of rise when several other papers, as mentioned n the essay find no such thing
Furthermore neither you or the papers you link to address the Greenland problem. Since 2012 Greenland has contributed less and less to sea level rise and for the past 2 years caused a slight lowering as it has accumulated ice.
I don't mean to imply satellite rise data give a fully constant rise rate, for they do not. Just as individual tidal data give short trends both up and down, so also does satellite date; e.g. rise rate went down in the ~2011 la Nina and up slightly in the 2015-16 el Nino. The overall altimetry trend (not all that well defined) is ~2.9 or ~3.2, depending on whether the GIA correction is applied (which is not relevant to tidal data).
Individual tidal data are not corrected by GPS for land movement, because it is the land relative to local sea rise that is of importance to that vicinity. Sometimes the land movement is the bigger part of measured tidal sea rise.
Compilations of tidal data are corrected such that they can be compared with satellite data taken only on the open oceans.
Greenland ice mass, as measured by GRACE, accelerated in its melting rate between 2002 and ~2012-13; since then the melting rate has decreased somewhat. Greenland ice is a balance between new snowfall and melting and /or faster flow rates. The approximate melting rate for Greenland ice over this period was approximately 280 billion tons per year. At such a rate over 8,000 years would be required for total melting.
West Antarctica is losing ice, but East Antarctic is gaining ice. The largest source of melting ice may be mountain glaciers outside the polar caps.
I agree with your advice to the San Francisco leaders. The long-term rise rate at that site cannot be accurately predicted. Best advice is be watchful and have more than one plan.
Kip Hansen says:
Jim ==> Thanks for your efforts – – and congrats on taking a scientific perspective to where the rubber-meets-the-road of public policy — local commissions and committees. We need to see more of that, everywhere.
Rich Wright says:
The NOAA San Francisco tide station historical chart, found at the NOAA tides and currents website, clearly indicates that a gentle sea level rise has been occurring since the 1850s. Up to the present, the long term upward trend is 1.96 mm per year. This chart clearly shows that sea level rise is not caused by recent man-made global warming, as the trend was already occurring in the mid-19th century. Claims that sea level rise "proves" global warming are illogical and false.
The chart also shows that the peak sea level threat to San Francisco occurred twenty years ago, in 1998. Since then, the recorded sea level has retreated to lower levels, and during the whole of the 21st Century so far, has yet to match the peak measurement of the 20th Century.
Humans have a weakness for discovering a shocking short term trend, and then projecting it far into the future. The perceived threat to San Francisco, from sea level rise, is a classic example of this kind of thinking.
Rich Wright,
The NOAA San Francisco sea rise data (as with most such data) is relative to the local seashore.
That implies it has not been corrected for land movement. Likely the San Francisco region is sinking, as it was constructed on land fill, both purposely added and from huge 19th century gold mining in the Sierra foothills, where high pressure water was used to wash away hillsides. Water washed that sediment to settled in the San Fran Bay. Wet sediment slowly compacts as overlying pressure squeezes out water.
If so, that implies the 1.96 mm/yr sea rise is partly due to sinking and not actual sea rise at that location.


text:
Q: Why doesn't my lightning component work in iOS? I have a functioning app that I can access via https://na16.lightning.force.com/one/one.app but when I log into the Salesforce1 app on an iPhone the tab is there but when I select it the app never shows up, just a white screen.

A: Version 6.x of the S1 native container broke Lightning Component Tab support - this is supposed to be fixed in the next major release of the container (7.x). I was not happy about this. Also be forewarned that the Android container still does not have Lightning Component Tab support - its on the backlog to be completed but I do not have an ETA on it yet.

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


Metheglin are a duo playing English border bagpipes and electro-acoustic hurdy-gurdy... they also play a variety of percussion, bass, contrabass, samples, loops and things that make a noise.... The music is contemporary with a medieval twist...complex and rhythmical with just a hint of whimsy! - check them out, it won't be like anything you have ever heard before!
The music is contemporary with a medieval twist...complex and rhythmical with just a hint of whimsy! - check them out, it won't be like anything you have ever heard before!


text:
Home > In the Cemetery Where Al... > Homework Help > What metaphors are used in In th...
In the Cemetery Where Al Jolson Is Buried
What metaphors are used in In the Cemetery Where Al Jolson Is Buried by Amy Hempel?
Symbolic in the story's Southern California setting is the idea that the narrator's situation is merely a play or a television show in which she is acting. The hospital, which is near Hollywood, is likened to the one on the television series "Marcus Welby, MD," and a camera guards the sick woman's room. Conscious that she is being filmed, the narrator states "I had my audience," in further recognition of the metaphor. Her tales about insignificant things take on the aura of a performance. "Off camera," she says, further painting a portrait of California, "there is a beach across the street."

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


My godparents have "adopted" me on November 28th 2009.
What a wonderful day! November 28th 2009 will always remain a very special date to me, my godparents have "adopted" me today.
Add languages, where Mariella is common.


text:
COVID-19 could be seasonal illness that returns as humidity decreases, new Australia study reveals
A study conducted in Australia during the early stage of the coronavirus pandemic has found an association between lower humidity and an increase in locally acquired positive cases.
The study, which is the first peer-reviewed study of a relationship between climate and COVID-19 in the southern hemisphere and was published today in Transboundary and Emerging Diseases, found a 1 percent decrease in humidity could increase the number of COVID-19 cases by 6 percent.
«COVID-19 is likely to be a seasonal disease that recurs in periods of lower humidity. We need to be thinking if it's winter time, it could be COVID-19 time,» said Michael Ward, an epidemiologist in the Sydney School of Veterinary Science at the University of Sydney who led the research, in a statement.
10 PERCENT OF CORONAVIRUS PATIENTS WITH DIABETES DIE WITHIN A WEEK OF HOSPITALIZATION, NEW STUDY FINDS
AS COVID-19 SCAMS PROLIFERATE, GOOGLE LAUNCHES SCAM-SPOTTER TOOL
Since the COVID-19 pandemic developed in China, Europe and North America during those regions' winter, researchers were curious to see if there was a unique association between the virus and Australia's late summer and early autumn.
«When it comes to climate, we found that lower humidity is the main driver here, rather than colder temperatures,» Ward explained. «It means we may see an increased risk in winter here, when we have a drop in humidity. But in the northern hemisphere, in areas with lower humidity or during periods when humidity drops, there might be a risk even during the summer months. So vigilance must be maintained.»
According to Ward, there are also biological reasons why humidity can impact the transmission of airborne viruses.
«When the humidity is lower, the air is drier and it makes the aerosols smaller,» he said. «When you sneeze and cough those smaller infectious aerosols can stay suspended in the air for longer. That increases the exposure for other people. When the air is humid and the aerosols are larger and heavier, they fall and hit surfaces quicker.»
Parthians: Their Great Empire And Skilled Horse Archers
Star Formation That Began As Early As 250 Million Years After The Big Bang
Disc-Shaped UFO Flies Behind Argentina TV News Live Broadcast (UPDATE)


Wordpress Themes - WP Forum at BFA - [SOLVED] Flynn: "..default hard coded widgets.." ??
Flynn: could you discuss your statement from another thread "...the way Atahualpa is now (with default hard coded widgets) is the standard way, most themes are like this..."
I'm worried that I missed a change in Ata that maybe I should have responded to. How was Ata set up before?


Mrs. Abram grew up in England and emigrated in 1951 to Canada with her daughter a few months after her husband Ken. They lived on Galiano Island where Mr. Abram worked in the logging industry. Expecting their second child in February 1952 they were on the way by fish boat to the hospital but their son Robert had other ideas and was born during a storm on the boat. The family moved to Vancouver and then to Richmond where Gwen battled the Vancouver and Richmond welfare departments and big business in Richmond. The next move was to Prince George where Gwen joined the Prince George College students' successful sit in. While in Vancouver and Richmond the family had spent many summers at Mission Point on the Sunshine Coast and when Ken retired the moved permanently to the Coast. Mr. Abram died in 2007 and Mrs. Abram now lives in Sechelt.
2001 -- card showing Davis Bay-Wilson Creek Community Hall. Drawing by Terry Barker.


text:
Go-To Glamour
By staff February 1, 2006
The item: This red leather Gucci handbag with double chain and logo web zipper pull is for the woman who doesn't mind if her accessories demand attention on their own. Light-gold hardware accents the bold richness of the practical shape. $1,250. (Or choose the bag in luxurious ostrich for a little upcharge to $3,490.) You know you want something bright red this winter-go for it.
What makes it special: Well, it's Gucci, gal, the Italian house that made its name and reputation in fine Italian leather. This bag gets you into the best restaurants even when you're wearing ratty jeans and looks right when you're lunching with pals at the yacht club or rushing off to an afternoon wedding. It's your all-purpose, go-to glamour bag.
Behind the brand: Guccio Gucci started a saddlery and leather goods store in Florence in 1921. In 1938 he expanded to Rome and then globally as his trademark (the two Gs, and the striped webbing derived from a saddle girth) began to appear on everything from lighters and luggage to pens, perfumes, clothes, accessories and shoes. When Papa Gucci died in 1953, his six offspring plunged into nasty sibling rivalry, which nearly bankrupted the firm. But in 1993, 32-year-old fashion designer Tom Ford gloriously revitalized the company linking the brand with celebrities and giving it a sexy, fresh, modern edge. Ford left in 2003, but Gucci, now a public company, is in good shape. Today the Gucci Group includes Alexander McQueen, Balenciaga, Bédat & Co., Bottega Veneta, Boucheron, Sergio Rossi, Stella McCartney and Yves Saint Laurent.
Who has some: Jackie O was fond of the pink suede horsebit loafers; they come in green and marigold, too. She also had a shoulder-strap hobo bag named for her. Grace Kelly made the Flora scarf world-famous, and Audrey Hepburn's affair with Gucci products elevated the brand to royal status. Today, Sting loves his Gucci tuxedo, and Gwyneth Paltrow has been famously photographed in her red crushed-velvet diva tux. Elizabeth Hurley caused a stir in her Gucci patent-leather spiked boots and Madonna sometimes dresses head to toe in Gucci.
Where to get it: In Florida there are Gucci stores in Coral Gables, Bal Harbour and Palm Beach, which has been a special Gucci haunt since Aldo Gucci bought a home on that luxury-laden island in the 1970s. And best of all, Gucci now has a home on our coast in the fashionable Waterside Shops in Naples.


text:
Q: Can I withhold number with an iPhone 5s? I need to join a client's conference call today but I'm likely to be out of the office. I don't have a company phone but don't want to share my personal mobile number. Is there a way I can withhold my number so they don't get my personal mobile number?
I've been looking in the Settings/Cellular and Settings/Network but can't see anything promising.

A: Look for Settings → Phone → Show My Called ID. Depending on your carrier this may or may not be available.
If it's not available there might be another way to hide your caller ID by pre-pending a prefix to the number you dial. For example in the UK you can add 141 to the start to hide your called ID.


text:
Q: How to increase ToolTip display time? I have one GridView, in its RowDataBound Event, I am assigning ToolTip as below:
protected void gv_RowDataBound(object sender, GridViewRowEventArgs e)
{
    try
    {
        if (gv.HeaderRow != null && e.Row.RowType == DataControlRowType.DataRow)
        {
            e.Row.ToolTip = "Remarks: " + ((Label)e.Row.FindControl("lblRemarks")).Text;
        }
    }
    catch (Exception ex)
    {
        BussinessLayer.RIBOException.Instance.HandleMe(this, ex);
    }
}

Here, I want to extend the display time of the ToolTip.
How to do this?

A: You need to use the ToolTipService and specifically the ShowDuration attached property.
You should be able to do the following after you set the tooltip:
ToolTipService.ShowDuration(e.Row, 10000)

A: Set the ToolTipService.ShowDuration property.

A: <Button x:Name="btnHelp" ToolTip="For new paragraph : press Enter
For new line : press Shift+Enter">
 <ToolTipService.ShowDuration>15000</ToolTipService.ShowDuration>
</Button>

A: This works, gives spacing and other formatting options. The above accepted option did not work
<div runat="server" class="tooltip" id="divHowTo" style="display: inline-block; width:75px" data-tip="If you have problems:

        1.) Enter a users id

        2.) Choose a corresponding domain for the pin

        3.) Verify resolved name is correct

        4.) (If adding) Browse for Picture (jpg/png format) (square resolution) (240px X 240px or larger)

        5.) Choose a button to add or delete or view or save or clear " >
    <asp:Image ID="imgHowTo" runat="server" ImageUrl="Images/howTo1s.jpg"  Height="73px" Width="73px"/>

    </div>

with the class of (in between < style> and < /style>)
    .tooltip {
                display:inline-block;
                width:64px;
                height:64px;
                position:relative;
                margin:25px;
                background-repeat: no-repeat;
                background-position:50% 50%;
                background-size:100%;
                text-align:center;
                line-break:auto;
                white-space:pre-line;
            }
    .tooltip:hover:after {
                display:inline-block;
                position:absolute;
                top:-25px;
                left:50%;
                height:400px;
                content: attr(data-tip);
                font:bold 10px/14px Arial, sans-serif;
                background:#f0f0f0;
                color:#333;
                white-space:pre-line;
                border:1px solid #665;
                padding:2px 4px;
                width:150px;
                margin:0 0 0 -75px;
                border-radius:3px;
                line-break:auto;
            }
    .tooltip:hover:before {
                border-top: 10px solid #665;
                border-top: 10px solid #665;
                margin-top: 5px;
                content: "";
                position: absolute;
                border-left: 5px solid transparent;
                border-right: 10px solid transparent;
                top:-15px;
                left: 50%;
                margin-left: -10px;
                line-break:auto;
                white-space:pre-line;
            }

A: In XAML you can do it like this:
<MyWpfElement ... ToolTipService.ShowDuration="60000" />

The value is in milliseconds. The example code shows the tooltip up to one minute.


text:
Sign Up To Get Our Experiences
BROADWAY INSIDER
STARTING AT $659pp (DIFFERS PER SHOW)
Experience the prestige and glitz of one of Broadway's hit musicals as never before. Up close and personal "limited engagement" makes you more than a member of the audience; be an insider at the year 's most spectacular shows.
Shows Available: Aladdin, Anastasia, Beautiful, Book of Mormon, Cats, Charlie and The Chocolate Factory, Chicago, Come From Away, Dear Evan Hansen, Frozen, Great Comet, Groundhog Day, Hamilton, Harry Potter and the Cursed Child, Hello Dolly!, Kinky Boots, Lion King, Miss Saigon, On Your Feet, School of Rock, Waitress, War Paint, Wicked
Dinner With Cast Members
Best Available Tickets
Meet The Cast Backstage For An In-Theatre Meet and Greet
Photo Opportunity With Cast Members


text:
5 Things To Do In Venice Beach At Night
The Common Team
By day, Venice Beach is known as one of Los Angeles's most exciting neighborhoods. A longtime haven for artists, creatives, and eccentrics alike, it's a colorful and vibrant part of the city where everyone from surfers to shoppers can go to have fun. From seeing the Venice sign as you drive in, to the vibrant Venice boardwalk and historic canals, this Southern California beach is one of the must-see Los Angeles attractions.
But what happens after the sun goes down?
If you're looking for things to do in Venice Beach at night, look no further. Watch the sunset from the Ocean Front Walk, dine at an Abbot Kinney Boulevard eatery, or chill at a rooftop lounge, there's no limit to your options. From sunset to last call, this guide has everything you need to know to enjoy Venice Beach after dark.
#1 Watch the Sunset
It's a simple thing, but the best way to begin Venice Beach nighttime is by watching the sunset. Few sights are as breathtaking as the sun slowly lowering over the Pacific, and Venice Beach has at least two prime locations to watch from:
Venice Beach Pier – You can stroll more than 1,300 feet of the Venice Pier out onto the Pacific Ocean for a truly panoramic view of the sunset.1 And as you walk back to shore, you'll be treated to some excellent views of the Venice Beach boardwalk at night.
High Rooftop Lounge – Get a bird's eye view of the setting sun from the High Rooftop Lounge, located in the trendy Hotel Erwin. With phenomenal views of Venice Beach's landmark boardwalk, a broad menu of specialty cocktails, and DJs spinning live every evening, it's a top-notch way to enjoy Venice Beach at night.
#2 Grab a Drink at Townhouse
Established in 1915, Townhouse is the oldest bar in Venice Beach.2 Once the home of the famed Prohibition-era speakeasy The Del Monte, it now enjoys a reputation as one of the neighborhood's premier late-night spots.
Townhouse offers live music and comedy shows five nights a week in the original basement speakeasy. Take in a show while you sip classic cocktails that perfectly match the 1920s décor of original tile floors, copper ceilings, and walls papered in vibrant patterns and prints.
#3 Check Out The Brig
The Brig has been a staple of Venice Beach nightlife since it opened in the 1950s. Today, it remains one of the top places to go in the neighborhood for drinks, fun, and good vibes.
The impeccable mid-century modern décor is definitely a highlight of The Brig, but the real treasures are to be found on the menu. With unique house cocktails, an extensive selection of whiskeys, tequilas, and other spirits, and shot-and-beer combos that combine your favorite brew with your favorite liquor, there's something to quench every thirst.
Once you're properly libated, check out the food trucks that crowd that adjacent lot.3 Then, enjoy some of the other activities that make The Brig so popular, like:
#4 Rock Out at Hinano Café
Although many bars in Venice Beach are beloved by residents and sought out by visitors, not all of them have the honor of being the favorite spot of a legendary rock star. That distinction goes only to Hinano Café. Hinano Café has been serving cold beer and delicious burgers to the citizens of Venice Beach since the early 1960s. It was the local favorite of Jim Morrison of The Doors, but you don't have to be famous to get in.
A self-described "local bar for people from all over the world," Hinano Café sticks to the basics to deliver an authentic, no-fuss Venice Beach experience. The bar stocks beer and wine only, which reflects the laidback, beachfront atmosphere. There's also:
Free popcorn
Live music every Friday, Saturday, and Sunday
Hinano Café is usually best if you're planning on an early night. The live music starts at five pm on weekends and the bar closes at midnight.
#5 Grab a Late Bite at Nighthawk Breakfast Bar
We're putting this item last on our list because it's the perfect way to put your Venice Beach night to bed. Once you've checked out all the options for dinner, drinks, and dancing, end your night the same way area rockers have been for decades: with breakfast.
That's where Nighthawk Breakfast Bar comes in. This trendy Venice Beach hang was conceived as an homage to the musicians of the 1980s and 90s who made a tradition of visiting the diners of Los Angeles after their shows.
Nighthawk Breakfast Bar offers liquored-up takes on traditional breakfast food and drinks, like:
Brandy-infused French toast
Spiked cereal milks
Alcoholic coffee drinks
With a trendy interior and a playlist packed with old-school hits, it's a bustling spot with a nostalgic vibe—and the best place to go before you call it a night.
While Venice Beach is filled with endless options, you can also experience the nightlife of the nearby Santa Monica Beach. Explore the Santa Monica Pier and Pacific Park, ride the infamous Ferris Wheel, and grab a souvenir before you leave. Both of these beaches are very similar, but it's worth exploring them to see for yourself the differences between Venice Beach vs Santa Monica Beach.
Explore Venice Beach at Any Hour By Choosing Common
From strolling the ocean front walk and exploring the Venice canals, to dining at Abbot Kinney Boulevard, you may never run out of things to do in Venice Beach, and it might help to stay in the Southern California city for a while. Common is making it easier than ever to live in the country's top cities. From Chicago to Venice Beach, we offer attainable coliving suites that combine fully furnished living spaces with the most desired community amenities—all at a more affordable price than traditional apartments.
At Common Penmar in Venice Beach, you'll enjoy the convenience of a fully furnished private room in the heart of this eclectic neighborhood. Penmar also offers in-suite laundry, a furnished rooftop deck, community events, and more, all within walking distance of Venice Beach's top attractions. While living in Venice Beach, you can explore all of the nearby California cities and beaches including San Diego, Manhattan Beach, Malibu Beach, and more.
Ready to discover how easy life can be? Schedule a tour today to learn more.
Visit California. Venice Beach Pier. https://www.visitcalifornia.com/experience/venice-pier/
Townhouse. History. http://www.townhousevenice.com/history
Venice Beach Bar. The Brig. https://venicebeachbar.com/the-brig-abbot-kinney-venice/
Hotel Erwin. https://www.hotelerwin.com/food-drink/high-rooftop-lounge/
Townhouse. http://www.townhousevenice.com/
The Brig. https://thebrig.com/
Hinano Café. https://www.hinanocafevenice.com/


With your choice of sauce. Served with celery and your choice of dressing.
Served with white queso cheese.
Fried pickle chips. Served with your choice of sauce.
Includes your choices of appetizer or salad, entree or wrap, side, and dessert.
Includes your choices of appetizer, entree or wrap, salad, side, and dessert.
Includes your choices of entree or wrap, side, and dessert.
Each box includes your choice of half wrap, potato chips, apple, and a cookie.
Each box includes Lucy sliders (cheeseburger sliders), potato chips, apple, and a cookie.
Each box includes a grilled chicken sandwich, potato chips, apple, and a cookie.
Crumbled black bean burger, melted cheddar, lettuce, pico de gallo, and buttermilk ranch dressing in a honey wheat tortilla. Cut in half.
With smoked pulled pork, mac & cheese, melted cheddar cheese, and honey BBQ sauce. Cut in half.
Crispy chicken in Buffalo sauce, melted cheddar, lettuce, tomatoes, and buttermilk ranch in honey wheat tortilla. Cut in half.
Crispy chicken, cheddar, lettuce, tomatoes, and honey mustard in honey wheat tortilla. Cut in half.
Chicken tenders. Served with your choice of sauce.
With your choice of flavor. Served with buttery buns.
Everything you need to build your own tacos, including grilled peppers & onions, lettuce, tomatoes, cheese, sour cream, salsa, pico de gallo, and your choices of tortillas & two proteins.
Spring mix with carrots, hard-boiled eggs, tomatoes, cucumbers, cheddar, croutons, and your choice of dressing. You can usually order side salad for just a third of your headcount.
Chef's choice of soup. Pair soup with wraps or a salad for a complete meal.
Romaine with Parmesan, croutons, and Caesar dressing. You can usually order side salad for just a third of your headcount.
Romaine with honey BBQ grilled white meat chicken, red onions, tomatoes, cheddar, crispy tortilla chip strips, and buttermilk ranch dressing. As an entree salad, consider adding dessert; otherwise, you're all set.


The Daily Face Fuel by Hunter Lab is a natural nutrient rich daily facial moisturiser for men.
Includes Passion Flower and Wakame extracts to intensely hydrate and rejuvenate for smooth, nourished and healthy skin.
The aroma contains notes of tangerine, grapefruit, rum and vanilla.


A truly explosive era for Thor! Visionary writer Warren Ellis and superstar artist Mike Deodato Jr. unite to change everything for a Thunder God forsaken by his father and left mortal in Manhattan. Death is coming for Thor — and Ragnarok may not be far behind! But can he find solace — and renewed vigor — in the arms of the Enchantress? And together, can they save the World Tree, Yggdrasil? Then, William Messner-Loebs takes over with Deodato in bringing an epic chapter of Asgard's saga to a close! Thor joins Captain America and his Avengers comrades in battle with the Zodiac before facing the climactic twilight of the gods alongside his hammer brother Red Norvell! Prepare to bid farewell to a legend!


Prices start at just £178!
If you need any help with your search, please feel free to ask, we are more than happy to help!
Current style number plates were first used in September 2001 when the old system of prefix registration numbers came to an end with the final 'Y' prefix. The current format includes a year number identifier instead of the traditionally used letters for example a car registered in September 2006 would have '56' as the year identifier.
Number plates with year or number age identifiers have restrictions on their application. You cannot make a vehicle look newer than it actually is ie. a '55' new style number plate cannot go onto a vehicle registered before September 2005. The same rules apply to prefix number plates, a 'Y' prefix plate cannot go onto a vehicle registered before 2001.
Regplates offer a registration match service so when a plate becomes available our system will automatically contact you to alert you. We can also locate registration numbers through our extensive records of sold numbers. This can be a great tool to utilise when tracking down very rare number plates.
Looking to buy a new car? Sounds great! But don't you think your car will be unrecognisable in the fleet of thousands when it will be on the road? Well, you're not alone. Every car owner does face this problem.


Accounting Equation Questions And Answers Atyourore is good choice for you that looking for nice reading experience. We hope you glad to visit our website. Please read our description and our privacy and policy page.
Finally I get this ebook, thanks for all these Accounting Equation Questions And Answers Atyourore can get now!


The Scout Association is pleased to announce that 23-year-old Frankie Smith will be joining UK Youth Commissioner Hannah Kentish as a deputy.
Frankie started Scouting as a Beaver at the age of six, and went through the sections at 3rd Hastings Scout Group before joining Phoenix Explorer Scout Unit. He then began volunteering as an Assistant Scout Leader once he turned 18, a role he maintained throughout his degree.
In 2015 he joined East Sussex County team and became their first ever County Youth Commissioner, helping to shape Scouting for young people in the area. He is currently working towards his Queen's Scout Award and is also part of the Summit 17 planning team.
We wish Frankie the best of luck in his new role.
If you'd like to follow Frankie's work as Deputy UK Youth Commissioner, find him on Facebook and Twitter.


A couple of winters ago when I went to Paris I took a sketchbook with me and drew these butterflies after visiting Deyrolle. I'm so pleased to see the papillons transformed into a textile design for LeSportsac's Swarovski elements bag collection. The collaboration comes out in stores this December.


Great house available for short term lease (can be leased nightly, weekly, monthly..$11K is for a full month, prices higher with shorter terms). Call for pricing. South facing on golf course, great views! 3 bedrooms plus bed in office, close to Coachella and Stagecoach with availability for Coachella. Call to inquire. Utility cap depending on length of stay. Owner will accept Canadian funds.


Don´t be tacky – just be smooth. Our ultra lightweight texture glides on sheer and glossy with a flavour of natural vanillin extract for that kissable lips. Each color melts onto your lips and is never sticky, just ultra shiny!
INGREDIENTS: Polybutene, Pentaerythrityl Tetraisostearate, Tridecyl Trimellitate, Ricinus Communis (Castor) Seed Oil, C18-36 Acid Triglyceride, PEG-8, Vanillin, Ascorbyl Palmitate, Sodium Saccharin, Glycine Soja Oil, Tocopherol, Colophonium.


the allocation of persons to social positions, especially occupations, on the basis of specific paper qualifications. Though these qualifications are, in particular, educational ones, this does not necessarily lead to either education for socially relevant need, or improved performance in occupations. There is a high demand for jobs in modern economies, which leads to considerable competition among applicants. The requirement is for educational credentials (certificates, diplomas, degrees), which regulate the flow of manpower. The pursuit of such credentials becomes an end in itself, leading to what Dore (1976) called the 'diploma disease - see also Berg's The Great Training Robbery (1970). The form and content of education is of secondary importance. What is of primary significance is the level of qualification attainable. The process is criticized as failing to meet the real needs of industrial societies because it tends to serve mainly as a method of selection in the entry to occupations, rather than providing a preparation for them (see SCREENING). It is also criticized for frustrating many of those who embark on higher education hoping to advance occupationally since the number of appropriate jobs does not expand to match the expansion in the numbers qualified' to fill such posts.
An identical process, although potentially more insidious in its implications (according to Dore), is the way in which, in THIRD WORLD countries, credentialism and the attempt to emulate Western systems of secondary and higher education leads to the expansion of educational systems in a form which is inappropriate to the needs of the economies of these societies. For both developed and less-developed economies, however, the counter-argument can be made that the thesis of'credentialism' undervalues the intrinsic value of extra education, both in employment, in providing specialist as well as general transferable skills (see also HUMAN CAPITAL. POSTCAPITALIST SOCIETY), and as a consumption good pursued for its own sake, rather than merely for reasons of gaining employment (see SOCIAL DEMAND FOR EDUCATION). See also GRADUATE LABOUR MARKET, HIGHER EDUCATION.
Nos resultats montrent que le marche du travail dans la ville est tout a fait << credentialist >> car les diplomes sont regulierement demandes a l'embouche.
The dominance of public sector hiring rules gradually led to a credentialist equilibrium in which students invested in high school diplomas and university degrees but had to wait a long time in queues for government jobs.
This notion of social closure is typically identified with wider occupational groups, and the tying of professional knowledges to the pursuit of exclusionary, credentialist strategies.
In some brief concluding thoughts, Witz also refutes monolithic versions of the state as an agent of male social control, suggesting, for instance, that women's professional ambitions have historically been more often frustrated by credentialist struggles and satisfied in legal challenges.
This is what Zapata (2009) calls the governance hypothesis, such that if the government confronted immigrant integration inclusively, offering them civic instead of credentialist citizenship, or stopped reassuring the population about its efforts to control flows, the negative sentiment towards the outgroup would be even greater.
It's an opportune time, if there ever was one, to cut through the credentialist kudzu and recognize that not every good teacher is good at research, and not every good researcher is good at teaching.
Shabbir, Tayyab (1993) Productivity-Enhancing Vs Credentialist Effects of Schooling in Rural Pakistan.
The credentialist view that education does not improve productivity--that it rather provides positive signals about productivity--is also tested.
1993) Productivity Enhancing vs Credentialist Effects of Schooling in Rural Pakistan.
Incidentally, it may be noted as well that in Shabbir (1991), a study of the credentialist effects of schooling in Pakistan, I have reported the estimates for a MEF that are based essentially on the same national data set as has been used in the present paper.
2) By and large, the available empirical evidence both for the developed as well as the developing countries seems to suggest that, while there may be some truth to the credentialist story, investment in education does enhance productivity substantially.
In addition to the screening critique of the human capital interpretation, there is the credentialist critique in which the link between earnings and labour productivity is challenged.
Underinvestment in education: how much growth has Pakistan foregone?