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Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update – economy "better than predicted"
The Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update has been released today. Minister of Finance Grant Robertson's take on it:
PREFU shows economy doing better than forecast
Unemployment to peak at 7.8%, down from 9.8% forecast in the Budget
Year-to-June accounts show tax revenue, debt and OBEGAL better than forecast
Global forecast downgraded as COVID-19 second waves and uncertainty grows
Balanced plan to support critical public services, manage debt and reduce the deficit caused by COVID-19
The Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update released today shows that the near-term economic recovery has been stronger than the Treasury and many economists predicted at the May Budget, as the economy bounced back strongly out of lockdown.
"The Treasury now forecasts the unemployment rate to peak at 7.8%, down from 9.8% forecast in the Budget, because the economy is stronger than expected. That compares to an expected peak of 10% in Australia, while countries like the US and Canada have already recorded unemployment peaks above 13%," Finance Minister Grant Robertson said.
"The unaudited Crown accounts for the year to 30 June 2020 back up the evidence of a rebounding economy, with core Crown tax revenue of $84.9 billion coming in higher than the $82.3 billion forecast, indicating more activity than expected.
"Net core Crown debt was 27.6% of GDP at 30 June, compared to the Budget forecast of 30.2%, and the OBEGAL deficit of 7.7% of GDP at 30 June was lower than the 9.6% forecast.
"These are signs that the New Zealand economy is robust, and that our plan to eliminate COVID-19 and open up the economy faster is the right approach. We can see this in the forecasts, with the New Zealand economy predicted by the Treasury to grow by an average of 4.2% across 2021 and 2022, compared to Australia at 3.6% and the US at 3.5%.
"The Treasury – similar to other economists – initially forecast June quarter GDP to fall by about 23.5% in June from March. In today's forecasts, the Treasury has reduced that to 16%. All this goes to show is that forecasting month-to-month, let alone years in the future, is incredibly difficult with such an uncertain global environment and an unpredictable virus.
"However, global headwinds and this 1-in-100 year economic shock caused by COVID-19 will have a long-term effect on the Government's books.
"The forecasts illustrate our balanced plan to manage debt and reduce the deficit caused by COVID-19, while protecting our investment in services like health and education.
"COVID-19 is hurting economies around the world but because New Zealand went into this with low debt and a growing economy, we will come out better than other advanced countries," Grant Robertson said.
"Policies like the Wage Subsidy, business tax refunds and small business cashflow loans protected jobs and kept businesses going. We've also invested to secure PPE and ventilators, and make sure our testing and contact tracing systems are world-class. Taking on debt to fund this response is the right thing to do as we fight COVID-19.
"There is no free lunch here.These measures require significant investment. It has been necessary to use the Government's strong financial position to do this.
"What counts is our strong track record. Before COVID-19, despite constant urging to the contrary we stayed disciplined with our spending and reduced debt below 20% of GDP while successfully investing in critical public services.
"Our strong starting position that means even at its peak of around 56%, New Zealand's net debt will be considerably lower than other economies around the world – advanced economies went into COVID-19 with net debt averaging about 80% of GDP.
"The PREFU's long-term projection model shows debt reducing to 48% of GDP by the end of the projection period. The difference between debt of 56% and 48% at the end of the projection period represents $46 billion less debt than if debt just remained at its peak.
"The projections show the deficit caused by COVID-19 reduces steadily each year from 10.5% of GDP this year, to less than 1% of GDP by June 2028.
"The PREFU also shows the benefit of locking in low interest rates for the long-term debt that has been used to fund the response, with annual core Crown finance costs forecast to reduce by around $800 million over the next four years.
"Because the Government can borrow for 20 years or longer at rates below 1%, it makes sense to lock these in now to fund the response before interest rates rise. Because the Treasury has already been able to secure more funding at lower rates, and because the Government's cash position has improved since the Budget, the Treasury today announced it has reduced its debt programme over the next four years by $10 billion.
"There are challenges ahead, but we have a five point plan to grow the economy, support businesses and seize the opportunities created by our world-leading COVID response."
While the economy may not be as bad as predicted the effects could have been delayed and may be yet to bite. Or not.
Click to access prefu20.pdf
Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update 2020 – Charts and Data XLSX 1.15 MB
Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update 2020 – Expense Tables XLS 100 KB
by Pete George on 16th September 2020 • Permalink
Posted in government
Tagged 2020, economy, Grant Robertson, Minister of Finance, PREFU, update
Posted by Pete George on 16th September 2020
https://yournz.org/2020/09/16/pre-election-economic-and-fiscal-update-economy-better-than-predicted/
Looming job and work hours crunch
The number of people in work recovered in June but there are still 20,000 fewer jobs than before the effects of Covid hit at the end of March, and earnings are down – many people have had wage rates cuts and ordinary and overtime hours cut.
While the New Zealand economy has weathered Covid reasonably well (due to a large amount of Government borrowing) a deep recession is predicted.
The Covid wage subsidy, which is propping up hours and jobs, ends next month so there is a looming job loss and wage cut crunch, unless there's a sudden turnaround in business activity.
Stuff: Job numbers continue to recover after the Covid-19 slump, but wages still down
The number of jobs filled has continued to rise after the April lockdown, according to Stats NZ numbers out on Tuesday.
Filled jobs were up by 2053 in June, to 2.2 million. This followed a rise of 14,399 jobs in May.
Stats NZ economics statistics manager Sue Chapman said there had been month-on-month increases over the last two months after the sharp drop in April of more than 35,000 jobs.
So that's about 18,000 down from March.
"We calculate filled jobs by averaging weekly jobs paid throughout the month, based on tax data. Filled jobs include jobs paid by employers who are being subsidised by the Covid-19 wage subsidy scheme."
But many people who have kept their jobs have had pay cuts. The subsidy for people who had been full time requires them to be paid at least 80% of their previous wages – many have had their pay cut to 80%.
Gross earnings for the three months ending June were down $304 million (0.9 percent) on earnings in the March quarter.
This was the first time since the series began in 1999 that June quarter gross earnings were lower than March, Chapman said.
"While job numbers dropped and then started to recover, it is clear that salaries and wages received throughout the quarter have taken a hit," Chapman said.
And it is predicted to get quite a bit worse.
Christina Leung, principal economist with the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZEIR) said around 2 million people were either on the benefit or the wage subsidy scheme, which represented around 53 per cent of the working age population.
Around 65 per cent of people employed are on the wage subsidy scheme, she said.
"We forecast job losses of over 200,000 by June 2021," Leung said.
"We expect unemployment rate to peak at around 8 per cent in late 2022.
That's over a year away.
The wage subsidy runs out next month, but I'm hearing employers already looking at what to do from September, and a number are talking about job losses or further pay cuts.
The actual impact of that in numbers will be felt straight away by many workers, but the total numbers probably won't be apparent until after the election.
And some cuts will be delayed. Many companies are waiting and seeing while propped up by the subsidy. Some have already signalled closures later – a department store in Dunedin will close next January.
The economic news isn't all bad. Grant Robertson in parliament yesterday – 1. Question No. 1—Finance:
On Friday, Statistics New Zealand released overseas merchandise trade statistics for June 2020. These showed total exports were up from the same time last year.
Goods exports in June were worth $5.1 billion—up $107 million from June 2019. The rise was led by dairy; with milk powder, butter, and cheese up $90 million, or 7.9 percent.
The value of log exports was also up by 7 percent since June 2019. This strong performance from our exporters contributed to a monthly trade surplus of $426 million in June.
The trade deficit for the year ending June was $1.2 billion—the smallest annual trade deficit since December 2014. All of this effort by our exporters demonstrates the continued strength of that part of our economy, despite the difficult prevailing conditions arising from the COVID-19 pandemic.
This is just some sectors. While the trade deficit is relatively small that will be affected by lower imports. And some sectors, particularly tourism and hospitality, have been badly affected, and the outlook for them over the next few months looks bleak.
And we are not over Covid yet, especially world-wide, but as some places have shown (like Victoria in Australia) it can easily come back.
Stuff: Mortgage holidays could be extended, wage subsidy back if needed
Minister of Finance Grant Robertson said the Reserve Bank of New Zealand extending mortgage holidays would be "justified" as he confirmed that the bank is considering elongating the scheme for Kiwi borrowers whose pay packets have taken a hit from Covid-19.
Robertson, in an interview with Stuff, also said that if parts of New Zealand were to enter a new level 3 or level 4 lock down in the event of Covid-19 community transmission re-emerging, that the wage subsidy could be reinstated.
That's if Covid comes back, but people are already significantly affected.
According to the New Zealand Bankers' Association, at June 30, 7 per cent of consumer loans (almost 60,000 loans) had had all payments deferred, while another 8 per cent of consumer loans had reduced repayments.
That's over 120,000 loans.
The next set of National Accounts are due to be released on September 17 two days before election day) and will show the extent of New Zealand's recession. Those figures will include most of the level 4 lock down period.
Robertson said that $14 billion held back last week from the $50 billion fund the Government created to fight Covid was crucial to wheel out if the economy, which has turned up since lockdown, starts to wobble again. Such measures could be required if the global downturn starts dragging New Zealand down further, or if community transmission broke out, and new regional wage subsidies were required.
That won't help the many workers likely to be affected when the subsidy comes off, presuming Covid stays away.
Dark economic outlook
Robertson also warned that although economic conditions in New Zealand are comparatively robust, the global economic outlook was looking darker by the day. Official figures come out with the Pre-Election Fiscal Update on August 20, but Robertson said that The Treasury has given him preliminary warnings.
"The New Zealand economy has definitely come out of this better and quicker than we thought albeit still tough circumstances. The global economic story is the opposite. It appears to be getting worse."
So the New Zealand economy hasn't 'come out of this better', the full impact of an international recession hasn't hit here yet. And our current economic situation is propped up by billions of borrowed money.
And despite all the money being dished out many workers are likely to find things tougher still after the subsidy runs out next month.
My job is reliant on business getting going again in countries currently severely affected by Covid with no quick turn-around expected. My earnings are down to 80% and could easily drop to half time of not to zero if things don't improve internationally over the next few months. I know of another local business cutting 50 jobs and cutting hours of remaining employees by 25%.
And with Covid cases rising world wide the worst may not be over.
Flaring virus threatens world economy's sputtering recovery
The world economy's fragile recovery is in danger of stalling.
A resurgence of coronavirus infections across the Asia-Pacific region, which was considered to have broadly curbed the virus more effectively than elsewhere, is being viewed as an early warning for the rest of the world.
The pandemic continues to rage in parts of the US, hot spots in Europe, and across big emerging economies including India and Brazil. With little prospect of a circuit breaker until a vaccine is discovered and distributed, governments are having to double down on the US$11 trillion worth of stimulus and unprecedented central-bank support unleashed since the crisis began.
The US Federal Reserve meets this week to decide on interest rates as US lawmakers debate another US$1 trillion fiscal stimulus package. The European Union has just signed off on a planned €750 billion crisis package and governments everywhere are having to extend support programmes.
While China's economy returned to growth last quarter and readings on industrial output have shown a V-shaped rebound, both consumer demand and private investment remain weak.
The US rebound is stalling after coronavirus infections spiked in a host of states.
"The global economic recovery is at risk," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics. "Key to ensuring the global economy doesn't slide back into recession in coming months is continued aggressive monetary and fiscal support."
In New Zealand we may be heading for a job and earnings crunch in the next month or two, but that may just be a phase in amongst larger and longer financial turmoil.
by Pete George on 29th July 2020 • Permalink
Tagged earnings, economy, Grant Robertson, New Zeealand, subsidy
Posted by Pete George on 29th July 2020
https://yournz.org/2020/07/29/looming-job-and-work-hours-crunch/
Valuable lessons learned in pandemic response
The Government and Ministry of Health handling of the Covid-19 was also generally very good in the circumstances. For various reasons New Zealand was also quite lucky to avoid having many infections and deaths compared to many other countries.
But the pandemic exposed a lack of preparedness. Testing for the virus, border controls and contact tracing systems were all inadequate. There were significant problems sharing health data between regions and collating data for analysis – some data was still being distributed by fax. There were problems distributing the influenza vaccine.
Normal health care was interrupted and disrupted too much when many resources were allocated to dealing with Covid that were not required. Our health systems should be able to continue as much as possible as normal as well as being prepared for any sort of abnormal rush of infections.
Some of our hospitals and health systems are in poor condition, this is something that should be given urgent attention and funding.
Valuable lessons should have been learned, and improvements either made or planned.
This is important for future viruses, which are inevitable, but especially for avoiding as much second wave infections as possible from Covid. It seems inevitable that Covid will be back here, but if limited and controlled it shouldn't become a big problem here.
What the Government does about the economic effects over the next few months and also the next year or two will be important.
here has also been a major business, employment and economic impact. Large amounts of money were quickly allocated to save as many businesses and jobs as possible. How successful this has been won't be known for months at least. At this stage we simply don't know what the medium term economic effects will be.
There is also a lot of debt that will hang over the country for years, decades.
Lessons should also be learned from the economic measures taken, but it may be had to undo or rectify some of these.
On top of this are international economic effects that are largely out of our hands but unavoidable in New Zealand. Huge debts have been racked up around the world. Trade has been badly disrupted. Tourism, a major factor in economic activity for many countries, including New Zealand.
Lessons should have been learned but there is a lot more to be learned as we go.
While typing this post I have heard there is a report out today on the condition of our hospitals and health systems. See Hospital assessment report highlights dire problems
by Pete George on 10th June 2020 • Permalink
Posted in Covid-19
Tagged economy, health, hospitals, lessons, pandemic
Posted by Pete George on 10th June 2020
https://yournz.org/2020/06/10/valuable-lessons-learned-in-pandemic-response/
Health and statistics reasons for staying at level 2 for yonks, but…
"…it would take anywhere between 27 and 91 days of no new cases for there to be a 95% probability that the virus is gone from New Zealand".
In practice it is getting increasingly difficult for the Government to justify staying at Covid-19 Alert level 2. Based on their current stance it could be another three weeks before they decide whether to change alert levels again, while daily we have been seeing no new cases for more than a week now, and we are down to just one (known) active case.
There are purely health reasons, based on statistics, for staying at level 2 for longer.
Siouxsie Wiles: Many want to go to alert level one right now. I get that. But we'd be fools to rush
There are several reasons why holding at alert level two for a little longer is the right thing to do. The main one is that a run of several days with no new cases doesn't mean that there are no undetected active cases of Covid-19 out there. Recent modelling by Professor Nick Wilson and his colleagues at the University of Otago estimated it would take anywhere between 27 and 91 days of no new cases for there to be a 95% probability that the virus is gone from New Zealand.
The lower estimate was based on the assumption that most people showing symptoms would go and get tested. The higher estimate was based on fewer people getting tested. In other words, those estimates are the difference between shrugging of that runny nose as an allergy or going to get tested for Covid-19 just in case.
I get why so many people want to move to level one, I really do. These last few months have turned our lives and our economy upside down. Just as they have right around the globe. We've made big sacrifices and we feel we've earned it. But surely none of us wants to risk going back to alert level three. Alert level one will come. Let's not squander what we've achieved.
That's from an academic who presumably doesn't have their job at risk.
But there is increasing pressure (with justification) for lowering the level for social reasons, for non-Covid health reasons, and particularly for economic and employment reasons.
More and more jobs are being lost (37.500 were lost in April), and when the 3 month wage subsidy runs out next month there are likely to be many more people who lose their jobs, and businesses who have to shut up shop.
As well as being devastating financially, that will impact on mental health and general health.
Health officials and academics with secure jobs and incomes may prefer to play ultra safe with Covid, but the rest of us have a lot of other things to consider and to be worried about.
The Government may be worried about what effect a second wave of Covid cases may have on their election chances.
They should also be worried about what effect a second wave of job losses and business failures might have, not just on their election chances, but also on the health of the country.
by Pete George on 31st May 2020 • Permalink
Tagged Covid-19, economy, health, jobs, Level 2, Siouxsie Wiles
Posted by Pete George on 31st May 2020
https://yournz.org/2020/05/31/health-and-statistics-reasons-for-staying-at-level-2-for-yonks-but/
Full economic recovery may require vaccine
The US Federal Reserve Chairman says that a full economic recovery may take well over a year, and it may be dependent on a Covid019 virus becoming available.
That isn't a surprising prediction, as a return to unrestricted international travel is likely to also depend on a vaccine. Travel affects business, especially tourism. Airlines that survive may it difficult to get back previous levels of business if social distancing remains required.
Reuters: Fed's Powell says full economic recovery may require coronavirus vaccine
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said a U.S. economic recovery may stretch deep into next year and a full comeback may depend on a coronavirus vaccine.
"This economy will recover. It may take a while … It could stretch through the end of next year. We really don't know," Powell said in remarks aired on CBS's "Face the Nation".
"Assuming there is not a second wave of the coronavirus, I think you will see the economy recover steadily through the second half of this year. For the economy to fully recover people will have to be fully confident and that may have to await the arrival of a vaccine."
Like governments a lot of businesses will need to rely on borrowing to survive, and that could be a burden for years.
The world economy is in part reliant on the US economy, as is New Zealand's economy. We have done a lot of travel to and through the US, and a lot of business with them.
Covid deaths have now passed 90,000 in the US, with trends indicating that wil reach well over 100k by the end of May and still climbing into June – see Where The Latest COVID-19 Models Think We're Headed
Reuters: So far, no spike in coronavirus in places reopening, U.S. health secretary says.
U.S. authorities are not yet seeing spikes in coronavirus cases in places that are reopening but it was still too early to determine such trends, health secretary Alex Azar said on Sunday.
"We are seeing that in places that are opening, we're not seeing this spike in cases," Azar said on CNN's "State of the Union" program. "We still see spikes in some areas that are, in fact, closed."
However, Azar said identifying and reporting new cases takes time. A critical part of reopening will be surveillance of flu-like symptoms in the population and other hospital admissions data, as well as testing of asymptomatic individuals, he said.
"It's still early days," Azar cautioned in an interview with CBS' "Face the Nation." He said data will take some time to come in from states that reopened early such as Georgia and Florida.
There are now 315,000 deaths currently recorded world wide. It is difficult to predict what the trends are going to be over the next few months as US states as well as countries start to cautiously reopen.
Some countries have increasing problems, like Brazil and Mexico, and Russia is now second to the US in number of cases, but with an extraordinarily low number of deaths recorded.
Two of the worst hit countries are at lowering rates – Spain and Italy record lower death tolls
Spain has recorded its lowest death toll in two months with 87 deaths in 24 hours, while Italy recorded its lowest daily toll, 145, since lockdown was declared.
It was the first time that Spain announced under 100 deaths in a day since mid-March, which could be due to a delay in reporting over the weekend, the health emergency coordinator said.
Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez said on Saturday that the government would request to extend the state of emergency for another month as the country continues to phase out restrictions on movement amid the coronavirus pandemic.
The state of emergency was set to end on May 24.
Declaring the lowest number of daily deaths since 9 March, Italy is now looking to bring forward the reopening of some commercial activity in the country, with retailers, hairdressers, salons, restaurants and cake shops authorised to open from tomorrow.
Spain has been relaxing stringent restrictions over the lats week. But weekend numbers are lower then weekday numbers.
DW: Brazil overtakes Spain, Italy in COVID-19 cases
Brazil overtook Spain and Italy in the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases on Saturday, making it the fourth-largest outbreak in the world.
The country's total number of cases rose to 233,142 after authorities logged 14,919 new cases, according to data form Brazil's Health Ministry.
A total of 15,633 people have died due to the coronavirus in the country so far, with the country registering 816 new fatalities over the past 24 hours.
Experts have warned that due to under-testing, the actual figures could be as much as 15 times higher, cautioning that the worst could be yet to come.
Despite the rising case numbers and fatalities, Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro has repeatedly downplayed the seriousness of the outbreak, dismissing the virus as a "little flu."
He has also continued to attack lockdown measures implemented by some governors to contain the spread of the virus, and calling for businesses to reopen
"Unemployment, hunger and misery will be the future of those who support the tyranny of total isolation," the far-right president tweeted.
RNZ: Brazil's Bolsonaro sees second health minister quit
Brazil's health minister has resigned after less than a month in the job following disagreements over of the government's handling of the country's escalating coronavirus crisis.
At his news conference, Teich did not reveal why he had stepped down. He just thanked President Bolsonaro for giving him the chance to serve as a minister and praised healthcare workers.
But he has clashed with the president over several aspects of how the government has dealt with the spiralling epidemic.
He disagreed with the president's desire to widely use chloroquine as a treatment. The drug has gained widespread attention although the World Health Organisation (WHO) says there's no definitive evidence it works.
Teich also butted heads with the president over plans to open up the economy, saying last week that he was not consulted ahead of an order that paved the way for gyms, beauty salons and hairdressers to reopen.
Case and death rates are increasing in Brazil.
A study comparing Denmark and Sweden claims that most of the drop in consumer spending is due to the virus itself and not the lockdowns. Newsroom: New paper calls into question benefits of Swedish strategy
Economists at the University of Copenhagen have found lockdowns have had little impact on consumer spending habits and that the true dampener of purchasing activity is the coronavirus itself.
The findings of the preprint paper, which may not have been peer-reviewed, call into question the premise of the much-touted Swedish strategy, in which the Nordic country has shied away from entering lockdown, suffering thousands of deaths as a result, in order to preserve the economy.
Transaction data for 830,000 Danes and Swedes from the second-largest Scandinavian bank found aggregate spending dropped by 25 percent in Sweden and 29 percent in neighbouring Denmark, which instituted a lockdown. Denmark has had 10,713 cases of Covid-19 and 537 deaths, while Sweden has seen 28,582 cases and 3529 deaths.
"In Denmark, spending drops sharply around the shutdown on 11 March 2020 and remains below the level in the reference period," the researchers write.
"In Sweden, spending drops sharply at almost the exact same time although no significant restrictions were imposed. Presumably, this is no coincidence but reflects that the Danish shutdown responded to an escalating pandemic, similar in the two countries, with its own strong effect on spending. This highlights the empirical difficulty of separating the effects of social distancing laws and the pandemic they are designed to contain."
In their conclusion, the economists argue that the lockdown resulted in just a 4 percent decrease in spending and that the virus itself was to blame for the vast bulk of the economic slump.
With no sign of a vaccine keeping the virus in check and getting economies back in action may be a long slow process.
by Pete George on 18th May 2020 • Permalink
Tagged Brazil, economy, Italy, Russia, Spain, USA
Posted by Pete George on 18th May 2020
https://yournz.org/2020/05/18/full-economic-recovery-may-require-vaccine/
The need to address both health and economic issues and also for stability
Some of the Covid debate has tended towards health versus economy, but it can't be an either/or argument. Good health of the population is important for the economy, and a good economy is important for health and wellbeing – "there are many dimensions to health and well-being, many of which build fundamentally on economic stability".
We had to go into some degree of lockdown, and we have to come out of lockdown. The big challenge is to do this as safely as possible as far as Covid health is concerned, but taking into account the importance of the economy in general, but also specifically in relation to individual and community health.
Many of us have kept a close eye on Covid data, numbers and rates of cases, deaths, tests and more.
Economic signals have been much more mixed, for example share markets plummeted, but have since recovered a lot of the lost ground.
But there's a key difference – Covid proved to be able to spread fast, and deaths started to surge within a month of an outbreak. Containment has been observable. In contrast a lot of the economic effects are spread over many things, and are likely to lag somewhat. Some companies and jobs will survive, and while some have already been lost the economic impact will take months (at least) to play out.
One of the go to websites for data has been the Johns Hopkins University Covid map. Caitlin Rivers is an assistant professor in Outbreak science + epidemiology + health security, but she acknowledges the importance of considering both health and the economy,
I've been noticing a dangerous polarization in our discussions around navigating our way through the pandemic.
She's in the US were polarisation has been a growing problem since well before Covid struck.
Reopening is said to be playing games with people's lives. Continuing stay at home measures is said to be without regard for the economy. This is a false choice.
We were the first group to put out detailed reopening guidance back in March, the same week that many states were issuing stay at home orders. The goal is and has always been to reopen – the question is how to do it safely
Staying home was always meant to be temporary, to prevent the healthcare system from being overwhelmed and to put in place capacities to enable a transition to case-based management. The question is how and when we will reopen. It was never about if we will reopen.
I've written about the answers to these questions extensively. The 'how' is through test-trace-isolate. The 'when' is as soon as we have that in place. The 'then what' is by re-introducing low risk activities, waiting to see what happens, and moving up from there.
As I've said many times, what we want to avoid in the reopening process is creating the conditions that led to us having to stay home in the first place. The conditions of NYC, Lombardy, Wuhan. And yes, those places are all urban centers, but rural areas are vulnerable, too.
In April an average of ~2,000 people died of coronavirus in the US each day. That is more than daily average from cancer or heart disease. I fear there is growing complacency that this level of loss is a new normal. Are we really ready to add a new leading cause of death?
My answer to Q's about whether x, y, z place is ready to reopen is to ask whether those places have the capacities, and if not, how do we build them. Yes, it's a big lift, but (my current fav phrase) we have done hard things before. We can do this too.
But – and I've said this before too – there are many dimensions to health and well-being, many of which build fundamentally on economic stability. I worry as much as anyone about secondary consequences of e.g. poverty and other gaps in care of chronic conditions.
My job is to provide public health counsel, and so that's what I do. It's a missed opportunity to have a deeper discussion when I or other experts are set up in an either-or, economy-public health discussion. It's about how we do both, safely
Links 9/9
[1] https://t.co/ESW3mZLOTA
[2] https://t.co/MJU7v9DMb8
[3] https://t.co/KhFWTmaegp
[4] https://t.co/m3OiMmJB97
— Caitlin Rivers, PhD (@cmyeaton) May 7, 2020
Again I'll quote " there are many dimensions to health and well-being, many of which build fundamentally on economic stability" – this suggests that now is not the time to launch into radical economic or social change, which would be certain to result in instability.
Tagged Caitlin Rivers, economy, health, Johns Hopkins University, stability
https://yournz.org/2020/05/11/the-need-to-address-both-health-and-economic-issues-and-also-for-stability/
Questions on "safe economic activity" at lowered Covid-19 alert levels
Questions were asked at today's Epidemic Response Committee about what different alert levels will mean to businesses wanting to restart. There seems to be a focus on "what constitutes safe economic activity".
From Stuff Live:
Simon Bridges probing the "levels" in relation to the economy. Treasury's modeling shows the lower the level, the better the economy. He said businesses are telling him they want to go to level 2. "Level 3 is a bit of a no man's land".
Grant Robertson is saying the detail of the lockdown coming this week will give business some clear guidance of what's permitted. He's saying it will show us "what constitutes safe economic activity".
"I don't share your view around level 3," Robertson says level 3 will allow us to increase economic activity.
He says he's been working with the construction sector to work out what safe economic activity looks like.
Robertson is saying the enthusiasm for coming out of lockdown early can actually mean yo-yo-ing between levels, which isn't good for economic activity either.
Paul Goldsmith asking about "what sort of pragmatism" will be brought to the health regulations that will determine how businesses work under levels 2 and 3.
Robertson said work is underway on those issues, so there would be real clarity.
Contact tracing will be important too. "Knowing who is in your workplace, knowing where they are and what they're doing". This will help us manage flare ups as they come.
Responding to Marama Davidson, "the best economic response is a strong public health response".
Sounds like a patsy.
University of Otago epidemiologist, Professor David Skegg, said countries that had not succeeded in controlling this disease, their economies were not going to flourish.
"I'm not an economist, but I would be very surprised if we're going to do worse economically because of the measures we're taking in the medium term."
He stressed that the country should get to level 2.
"We need some careful planning this week on what level 3 or level 3.5 would look like.
"It's not just a health issue and it's not just an economic issue," Skegg said.
From RNZ Live:
Simon Bridges said level 3 was akin to no man's land with the downsides of level 4.
Finance Minister Grant Robertson said when deciding on moving to level 2 and 3, his focus was on "what constitutes safe economic activity?"
"Level 4 is doing exactly what we wanted it to do for New Zealand and New Zealanders. The last thing we want is to come out level 4 and create a situation where we have to yo-yo between levels."
Meanwhile, Paul Goldsmith said businesses needed clarity on returning to work and how social distancing would look like in the working environment.
"There's a shared desire among industry workers, government to get people back to work as soon as possible. Health and safety is a very important part of the workplace," Robertson said.
"The best economic response is a strong public health response and that has to be underpinned by an investment in our health system."
Stuff:
Michael Woodhouse asking whether the "principles approach" is sector based or risk based.
The question is really whether or not the businesses that open will be determined by the kind of business they are (for example cafes) or the kind of measures that are put in place by any business, so cafes that follow those guidelines could reopen, whereas the one's that don't implement the guidelines don't reopen.
Robertson said it will be mainly the latter (so not sector-based) BUT you can't completely detach sectors from the guidelines.
Bridges asking whether level 3 is therefore significantly more permissive than level 4.
No response given.
Robertson saying that in the case of the media, "the patient had pre-existing conditions".
Media just about had comorbidity.
by Pete George on 14th April 2020 • Permalink
Tagged Alert Level 3, alert level 4, business, economy, Epidemic Response Committee, Grant Robertson, Paul Goldsmith, Simon Bridges
Posted by Pete George on 14th April 2020
https://yournz.org/2020/04/14/questions-on-safe-economic-activity-at-lowered-covid-19-alert-levels/
Business and the economy versus the ill, elderly and others
There's no doubt that Covid-19 will have a very large impact on businesses and employment and livelihoods in New Zealand, and our economy will take a big hit. This will have happened regardless of the actions taken by the Government. It's debatable what would be worse, doing more or doing less to limit the spread and infection rates.
It is also likely there will be deaths here. There are currently 368 confirmed and probably cases. Many of those will be mild to moderate and are being treated at home. Some are more serious and require hospitalisation.
Even with the relatively stringent lockdown cases are expected to rise for the next 7-10 days (or more if people flout the restrictions on movement away from home).
There is no doubt that without the level 4 lock down there would be a lot more spread, many more people catching the virus, and a real risk of quite a few deaths. This shows how easily it can spread even with restrictions:
Marist College, Auckland – 18 confirmed cases, 1 probable
Private wedding, Wellington – 10 confirmed cases, 2 probable
Rest home, Hamilton – 11 confirmed cases
Older people and people with existing medical conditions (especially lung or heart) are particularly susceptible to Covid-19, but this is hardly surprising, they are also more susceptible to other viruses and illnesses. Younger people seem to generally have milder symptoms – but they can still spread the virus.
There have been suggestions that the virus should be left to take it's course, to build 'herd immunity'. This must accept an inevitable casualty rate – people would die, possible quite a few people.
It has been suggested elsewhere and also here that it isn't a big deal that old people and people with illnesses might die of Covid-19. They die of other things anyway, Covid will just knock them off a bit sooner.
From Australia Victoria's first two coronavirus deaths were cancer patients caught in Alfred hospital outbreak
Victoria's first two coronavirus deaths were cancer patients at The Alfred hospital, and a further five cases of COVID-19 have been confirmed among patients and staff.
Duker commented on this:
Bingo! It seems like northern Italy all over again, the sick people get sicker and the elderly have less chance to recover.
It's a fact of life and one day it will be my turn.
I'm quite disturbed by this attitude.
It's a fundamental fact of life that we will all die, eventually.
But it is also a fundamental facet of a decent society that we don't just do nothing to prevent old and ill people dying of any new virus or disease, treating them as expendable.
We put huge budgets and resources into health care to try to keep everyone alive as long as reasonably possible.
People who get old often live to get quite a bit older after having illnesses.
My father had most of his stomach removed in the 1980s, had a bowel cancer operation in the early 1990s, his lungs were fag fucked with emphysema, but he still had a fairly good life up until 2000.
In the mid-90s he was given a choice of having chemotherapy which would give him a 60% chance of not dying of cancer, or doing nothing and lowering his chances to 40%. He chose not to have chemo because he didn't want to suffer through the treatment with a close to 50/50 chance it wouldn't save him anyway. But this was his choice, and I think a sensible one.
If a Covid-like virus had hot the country then and I was given a choice of saving my business (I was a sole trader than) or saving his life I would have chosen his life. I had already changed jobs and moved so I could support him as his health problems increased (just after he had a mild stroke).
I'm sure there are many people who would put people before money in this way.
I think it would be terrible to let Covid-19 spread freely in New Zealand to try to reduce the impact on business and the economy.
I also think it would be misguided. If we didn't have a lockdown and Covid-19 ran rampant here, as it almost certainly would, there would likely be hundreds if not thousands of deaths and many more hospitalisations. That in itself would be expensive.
If our hospitals were swamped with Covid cases – I presume no one things they should be left to suffer and die untreated – it would increase deaths by other causes because of lack of resources and treatment.
And if New Zealand was ravaged by Covid-19 there is no chance of tourism recovering, no one would want to come here. New Zealanders would be banned from travelling to many countries. It's likely exports would also be affected, air and sea transport would be badly compromised, and New Zealand would be an unpopular source of goods.
Internally if the virus was uncontrolled it would also have a major impact on travel and business. Many people would willingly keep away from places and businesses that were a risk to their health and life.
The main difference would not be economic impact, it would be whether the economic and employment was in a well controlled situation or chaotic and uncontrolled.
It's debatable (and impossible to know) which would be economically worse, doing a lot to limit Covid-19 as we are, or doing much less or nothing.
Regardless of the economic factors and effects, we can't just treat the elderly and the ill as expendable to try to save a few jobs and possibly (but probably not) keep the economy healthy.
"But the flu' is trotted out by Trump and some here – but we have a choice of vaccinating against the flu and minimising our risks. We can't do that with Covid. And because we could potentially die of something else, the flu (more often of complications), of cancer, of heart disease, is a very poor reason to not protect against a new threat.
If I was in a decision making position I certainly would put the health of citizens – especially the old and the ill – ahead of the economy. I back and applaud our Government and unanimous Parliament doing this.
No matter what the financial impact of Covid-19 measures, businesses will survive, new businesses will fill gaps, the economy will recover.
No one recovers from death.
by Pete George on 28th March 2020 • Permalink
Tagged business, economy, elderly, ill, virus
Posted by Pete George on 28th March 2020
https://yournz.org/2020/03/28/business-and-the-economy-versus-the-ill-elderly-and-others/
Recession imminent? Economic indicators to watch this year
The world is overdue a recession, or worse. US sharemarkets ended the year dropping a lot from earlier record highs and then recovering a bit, but still well off the highs. So what is likely to happen this year?
Reuters: Breakingviews – Three key indicators to watch like a hawk in 2019
Want to know whether there's going to be a U.S. recession, a flare-up in the trade war, or a spate of corporate implosions?
…just stay focused on these three proxy indicators.
Soybeans. American farmers have been early victims of the escalating response to President Donald Trump's import levies. When crops from other countries like Brazil are relatively more valuable, it suggests traders are more worried tariff barriers will persist.
U.S. yield curve. Different experts pick different comparisons, but in the past when the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds has dipped below the return on two-year government paper, a recession has followed. As 2018 draws to a close, the gap is once again very thin.
Corporate health. One hint at sentiment comes from indexes that track how many stocks in given markets are in bear territory, meaning they have fallen 20 percent or more in value from their peak prices in the last 12 months. About half are in that zone in developed markets and more in emerging economies. That might mean shares are cheap. Or it might signify negative sentiment and an accelerating slide in 2019.
This is very US-centric, but the health of the US economy has a major effect on the rest of the world, including us.
It is difficult to predict when recessions will occur, but one near certainty is that they will keep occurring. The world is overdue from an economic setback.
The New Zealand economy is in good shape, but can be easily impacted by overseas markets.
Fortunately Minister of Finance Grant Robertson took a prudent approach to his first budget in 2018. However there is pressure on the Government to deliver on it's social promises – or at least on expectations on what a kinder more progressive government should be doing.
The best time for significant tax and social reform is when there is money available to do it, like now when our books are in surplus.
If major measures are not put in place before the next recession it will get a lot harder.
And back to the US – tax changes there have substantially increased US debt, so they are not in a good position to weather a recession. This could make an economic hiccup worse.
by Pete George on 3rd January 2019 • Permalink
Posted in International, USA
Tagged economy, Grant Robertson, USA
Posted by Pete George on 3rd January 2019
https://yournz.org/2019/01/03/recession-imminent-economic-indicators-to-watch-this-year/
'Green' carbon-neutral transition investment fund launched
A $100 million fund has been launched to promote growth in low-carbon business to help "transition to a clean, green, carbon-neutral New Zealand". It is called New Zealand Green Investment Finance Ltd so the Greens get to promote their name along with the business orientated fund.
This has come from the Labour-Green Confidence & Supply Agreement, which included:
4. Stimulate up to $1 billion of new investment in low carbon industries by 2020, kick-started by a Government-backed Green Investment Fund of $100 million.
It is a one-off sum that is intended to "operate independently from Government and work in a market responsive and commercially focused way" in contrast to NZ First's much larger $1 billion per year Provincial Growth Fund that Shane Jones keeps dishing out as he promotes himself as a champion of the provinces.
What a great initiative to tackle climate change while also creating fantastic economic opportunities. @jamespeshaw, @jacindaardern, @becagroup https://t.co/qJ107mNd7Z
— Green Party NZ (@NZGreens) December 5, 2018
It is a sizeable amount of money, but is probably a worthwhile trial to see if James Shaw's aim of a establishing a 'green' economy.
Jacinda Ardern, James Shaw: $100 million investment fund launched to invest in reducing emissions
Business and the Government will jointly tackle climate change with the launch of New Zealand Green Investment Finance Ltd; a $100 million fund to reduce New Zealand's greenhouse gas emissions, Prime Minister, Jacinda Ardern, and Climate Change Minister, James Shaw, announced today.
The fund is a central plank in the Government's plan to transition to a clean, green, carbon-neutral New Zealand and it delivers on a Green Party Confidence and Supply Agreement commitment.
"Tackling climate change is a priority for this Government and business involvement is crucial to our success. No one can opt out of the impacts of climate change. This fund helps business to opt in to the solution," Jacinda Arden said.
"Lowering emissions will require innovation and action from all sectors.
"This fund means the Government is bringing cash and know-how to the table to partner with business to deliver a clean, green future for everyone.
"This new investment fund is an important component of New Zealand's plan to build a clean, sustainable, low-carbon economy that has both lower emissions and profitable enterprises," Jacinda Ardern said.
"New Zealand Green Investment Finance will be a commercially focused investment company which will work to invest with business to reduce emissions while making a profit," said James Shaw.
"The Government's $100 million start-up capital injection is intended to stimulate new private sector investment in low-emissions industries; with returns over subsequent years expected to pay back the Government's investment and see NZ Green Investment Finance stand on its own commercial footing.
"More and more investment dollars are looking for clean, sustainable ventures to invest in. Establishing this fund positions New Zealand to attract its share of that investment capital.
"New Zealand faces a big job in upgrading our economy and infrastructure. New Zealand Green Investment Finance will help deliver financial backing to help ensure that the upgrade is fit for purpose," Mr Shaw says.
What will NZ Green Investment Finance Ltd do?
NZGIF will bring financial and technical emission reduction expertise together into one organisation with the sole aim of increasing investment into low-emissions projects.
It will act as a bridge between investors and key industries and sectors, and identify low emissions projects ready for upscaling, commercialisation and use.
Why is NZ Green Investment Finance Ltd being established as an independent entity?
NZ Green Investment Finance Ltd is being established as a company under Schedule 4A of the Public Finance Act 1989 so that it can operate independently from Government and work in a market responsive and commercially focused way.
What will NZGIF finance?
NZGreen Investment Finance Ltd will have the flexibility and mandate to focus on sectors and industries where the greatest impact on emissions reductions can be made.
Potential opportunities include things like electric vehicles, manufacturing processes, energy efficient commercial buildings and low-emissions farming practices.
With New Zealand's electricity supply already using around 85 per cent renewable sources, NZGIF will focus on tackling other sectors. However, there may be opportunities to back smaller scale renewable energy projects; where they are smart and can contribute to making our electricity supply more sustainable as demand for electricity rises.
As a commercial entity, NZGIFwill likely focus on solutions that already exist; for example, knowledge and technology being used internationally where there is scope for use in New Zealand.
The Budget 2018 announcement referred to the NZ Green Investment Fund. Why has it changed to Green Investment Finance Ltd?
Use of the word 'Finance' is a more accurate reflection of the purpose and market-leading role NZGIF will play.
Why isn't the private sector financing these sorts of investments?
New investment markets take time to develop and investors rely on good information to assess viability and risk.
They also need financial products which are structured in a way that fits the market.
As a result, there is limited activity initiating and funding low emissions or 'green' investment deals here.
The establishment of NZ Green Investment Finance Limited, which will focus on accelerating private sector investment into emissions lowering projects, will fill this gap.
More details about NZ Green Investment Finance Ltd are available here.
The government funded company may take a few years to prove if there is good business in low-carbon initiatives.
by Pete George on 6th December 2018 • Permalink
Tagged business, company, economy, Jacinda Ardern, James Shaw, low-carbon, NZ Green Investment Finance Ltd, transition
Posted by Pete George on 6th December 2018
https://yournz.org/2018/12/06/green-carbon-neutral-transition-investment-fund-launched/
Big election night win for Labour
Open Forum Sunday
Election night 2020
Open Forum Saturday
Message from the Electoral Commission
Reid Research pre-election poll
Little change in latest 1 News/Colmar Brunton poll
Roy Morgan September poll
Open Forum Friday
Covid surging in Europe
National, Greens may boost Labour vote
Claim that Peters was briefed on NZ First Foundation operations
Open Forum Thursday
National's desperate attacks
UMR poll
Open Forum Wednesday
Long campaign but still a fairly predictable outcome
Open Forum Tuesday
Open Forum Monday
Corky on Open Forum Sunday
Patzcuaro on Open Forum Sunday
traveller on Moving on
Griff. on Moving on
lurcher1948 on Moving on
Alan Wilkinson on Moving on
Pete George on Moving on
Corky on The white tangata whenua
Alan Wilkinson on The white tangata whenua
Conspiratoor on The white tangata whenua
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text:
Q: mkdir in windows multiple path in single command @echo off
set "var=string"
set "today=%date:~10,4%-%date:~7,2%-%date:~4,2%"
set "path_backup=\\SGSINWPDFS01v\SG\OTHERS\IT\OTHERS\WORKSTATIONS\SCHEDULE"
set "path_sourcepst01=AppData\Local\Microsoft\Outlook"
set "path_sourcepst02=Desktop"
set "path_sourcepst03=My Documents\PST"
set "path_sourcepst04=My Documents\Outlook"
set "path_sourcepst05=My Documents\Outlook Files"
mkdir "%path_backup%\%username%\%today%"
mkdir "%path_backup%\%username%\%today%\PST"
mkdir "%path_backup%\%username%\%today%\PST\%path_sourcepst01%"
mkdir "%path_backup%\%username%\%today%\PST\%path_sourcepst02%"
mkdir "%path_backup%\%username%\%today%\PST\%path_sourcepst03%"
mkdir "%path_backup%\%username%\%today%\PST\%path_sourcepst04%"
mkdir "%path_backup%\%username%\%today%\PST\%path_sourcepst05%"

I modified the scripts as follow above.
I still the system still can't create the folder at sourcepst01, 03, 04 and 05.
The sourcepst02 is working fine.
It seem I can't MKDIR whole path, the system confused and must do one by one.
Am I missing something here?

A: Put quote marks around the paths.
mkdir "%foo%\%bar%\%somename%"

The problem is that the names have spaces in them, and mkdir is interpreting them as two arguments instead of a single name.  The quote marks will force it to interpret everything as a single path.

A: John Deters has nailed the problem - but I'd suggest
set "path_sourcepst4=My Documents\Outlook"
mkdir "%path_backup%\%username%\PST-%date:~10,4%-%date:~7,2%-%date:~4,2%\%path_sourcepst4%"

Using the set "var=string" format will ensure that the value set into the variable does not include any stray (and largely invisible) trailing spaces on the line. You only need to be caught out by that one once... It also reduces the number of " being resolved.
And why not set a variable called say yyyymmdd to %date:~10,4%-%date:~7,2%-%date:~4,2% so that that string isn't repeated?

A: @echo off
set "var=string"
set "today=%date:~10,4%-%date:~7,2%-%date:~4,2%"
set "path_backup=\\SGSINWPDFS01v\SG\OTHERS\IT\OTHERS\WORKSTATIONS\SCHEDULE"
set "path_sourcepst01=AppData\Local\Microsoft\Outlook"
set "path_sourcepst02=Desktop"
set "path_sourcepst03=My Documents\PST"
set "path_sourcepst04=My Documents\Outlook"
set "path_sourcepst05=My Documents\Outlook Files"
subst b: "%path_backup%"
mkdir "%path_backup%\%username%\%today%"
mkdir "%path_backup%\%username%\%today%\PST"
mkdir "%path_backup%\%username%\%today%\PST\%path_sourcepst01%"
mkdir "%path_backup%\%username%\%today%\PST\%path_sourcepst02%"
mkdir "%path_backup%\%username%\%today%\PST\%path_sourcepst03%"
mkdir "%path_backup%\%username%\%today%\PST\%path_sourcepst04%"
mkdir "%path_backup%\%username%\%today%\PST\%path_sourcepst05%"
subst b: /D

I found the issue, it seem on network drive can't be created multiple level subfolders.
So map to local drive solve the issue.

A: Add the line:
setlocal enableextensions

just after the @echo off line of the batch file.  That will enable mkdir to create any intermediate directories.
An excerpt of output from help mkdir:
If Command Extensions are enabled MKDIR changes as follows:

MKDIR creates any intermediate directories in the path, if needed.
For example, assume \a does not exist then:

    mkdir \a\b\c\d

is the same as:

    mkdir \a
    chdir \a
    mkdir b
    chdir b
    mkdir c
    chdir c
    mkdir d

which is what you would have to type if extensions were disabled.

A: The problem may be due to the nested level of folder depth.
I believe that 8 levels of directory was the supported maximum, with a total length of 260 characters being another limit.

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


In our apartment house Jäger we will offer you 2 holiday apartments, which can be booked from the winter season 2017/18.
The apartments offer generously sized rooms, beautiful facilities and balconies with a wonderful view of the Zillertal mountain scenery.
Furthermore, in the nearby Hotel Jäger the sauna can be used on request at an extra charge. Breakfast and dinner can also be booked at the Jäger Hotel upon request.
Tariffs are valid per Apartment per day with an occupancy by 4 persons.
Additional persons possible (pull-out couch in the living area € 15,00 per person per day).
For less than 4 persons there is an individual agreement.


Already 4 months into the Year and only one post!
I will have to try harder to get some posts on.
I have been trying to arrange things for taking photos to get better at it, as they say practice makes perfect - although I think I have a lot of practice to do.
I am working on some 'cast iron / wrought iron' items which I will post photos of soon. In the meantime here are are a few photos of my latest arrangement.
I didn't make the teddybear nor the tablecloth but everything else has been made by me.
It's beautiful! You've nailed the rich antique tones!
You have created a very interesting scene....lots of lovely things to look at, my eye caught your lovely floor rug......gorgeous!!
I don't know how you do it! Your work is amazing. I use my iPhone a lot to photograph miniatures, especially in the dollhouse because I can get it right inside the room. When I use my camera, I place one of those 3 sided presentation posters boards on the countertop with white card stock on the counter to set my items on in a well lit area. Using the flash will reduce shadows. If I want a black background I add a single black poster board (one without sides) and black card stock. I get decent results. Setting up this mini studio doesn't take much time and is cheap. Your blog posts pop up on my gardening blog, but I do have a dollhouse blog, annsdollhouseddreams.blogspot.com. I'd love for you to visit because I admire your work so much. For the gardening blog, I post weekly and have a nice list of followers. The dollhouse blog is another story. As you, I don't post there much and have only 6 followers. I am very thankful to have them. Dollhouse bloggers are too busy to write every day with their time devoted to creating their minis, but when they do post, it is always good reading.
Cozy scene, many interesting details. Love it!
You've nailed the rich antique tones!


text:
Accor's Novotel, the midscale hospitality brand, has teamed up with four international design teams to bring the brand's new vision of modern, 21st century style to the world.
Following an intense worldwide design pitch, Novotel chose four winning concepts that will be brought to life at Novotel locations around the globe, shifting Novotel from a standardized brand to a hospitality leader in the midscale hotel space.
By choosing four distinct concepts, Novotel will provide flexibility to its owning and franchisee partners, allowing each to choose and customize an ideal style that best suits the unique character of the destination.
"Novotel has embraced a new vision in terms of hotel design," said Nadège Keryhuel, Vice President, Novotel Brand. "We are excited to work with four outstanding design teams, who will help us creatively transform our hotels through a set of distinct visions of modern, premium hospitality.
'Our goal is to achieve a signature hotel experience, without standardisation, from check-in to check-out – a major evolution for the brand and a leading approach in the midscale segment."
The brand's new design partners exhibit a strong vision on the evolution of societal behaviour and recent consumer trends across Europe, Latin America, Middle East, and Asia.
During the new design strategy's global call to action, design teams were invited to submit concepts that included a lively social hub that would appeal to locals as well as guests; and a modern, intuitive and ageless design that incorporates high-quality, sustainable materials.
The winning concepts will now be brought to life, not only in the rooms, but also within hotel common areas such as the social hub, fitness spaces and spas - ensuring that every moment at a Novotel is designed with purpose and for maximum guest enjoyment.
The design teams and their winning submissions include:
RF Studio: adaptable, sustainable, easy to renovate, this concept delivers a homey feeling and unexpected atmosphere; guests are encouraged to discover a new way of hotel living and feel like they are at the heart of a village
Metro: modelled around Novotel's of 'Time is on your side', this modern design concept features natural tones and raw materials, inviting guests to enjoy a multifunctional and flexible space that evolves throughout the day.
Sundukovy Sisters: This concept blends business with pleasure and mixes well-being among unique 'co-living' spaces that embrace lively, social surroundings, current trends and timeless comforts.
Hypothesis: With a focus on reducing not only physical waste, but also reducing wasted space and time, this design concept allows guests to achieve the balance they seek during their stay.
The new design pipeline includes two Sundukovy Sisters design concepts for the UK in Liverpool and Newcastle. The two hotels are already under development: Novotel Liverpool Knowledge Quarter (opening spring 2022) and Novotel Newcastle Gateshead Quays (opening Sept 2023).(Sundukovy Sisters design pictured.)
Damien Perrot, Global Senior Vice President of Design at Accor, said, "Novotel is endowed with strong brand characteristics and a history of innovation and excellence within the global hospitality industry.
'We were inspired to build upon these strengths, with the goal of continuing to offer the best guest experience amid the evolving expectations of locals and international travellers alike.
"We pushed the boundaries to conceive modern, intuitive design ideas, where the way we organize the space, the decor and every single object or element serves a specific purpose.
'All the chosen designs responded to this request brilliantly, allowing us to re-interpret the way we design Novotel hotels around the world.
'We look forward to writing the next chapter in the brand's acclaimed success story and to taking Novotel to new heights in the years to come."
Accor a world leader in hospitality ...

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


"Vogue" mag ßzin e discovers St. Croix, Dec. '81. ( ( M t tt t · , , · , , b ' , · f . t ' , os a rac lve ... a JOY ... super ... magnl lcen ... t · b t " . d e bl " th b , " Th · s aggerlng eau y ... Incre 1 e ... e est. ese are Just some of the adjectives in ((Vogue's" fabulous review of St. Croix. And isn't it nice to know that St. Croix is the largest of the United States Virgin Islands-meaning you get all those extras that have made the Virgin Islands famous. Being part of the U.S. means no passports, no visas. The language is English; the currency, the U.S. dollar. The shopping quota is twice that of any other islands in the Caribbean. And we're easy to get to from where you are right now. Send for a copy of the ((Vogue" review-then make this the year you see what all the excitement's about See your travel agent In the American paradise: the United States Virgin Islands. @ 1983 United States Virgin Islands Division of Tourism, 1270 Ave of the Americas, NY, NY 10020.


text:
CALTEX CONFIRMS INTEREST IN WOOLWORTHS FUEL BUSINESS
Written on the 18 October 2016 by James Perkins
CALTEX (ASX: CTX) has confirmed it is interested in purchasing Woolworths' (ASX: WOW) fuel business.
In a release to the ASX today, Caltex says it has made a conditional and confidential proposal to Woolworths that will continue the brands' alliance that has existed since 2003.
Caltex is currently the exclusive supplier of petrol and diesel to Woolworths, with annual sales volumes of around 3.5 billion litres per annum.
Woolworths petrol sales were $4.6 billion in FY16, an 18.1 per cent fall from $5.6 billion the previous year the biggest drop in revenue among the Woolworths groups.
Overall, the Australian Food and Petrol group earnings reduced 40.8 per cent to $1.76 billion from $2.97 billion the previous year.
Petrol was a drag on the company's group sales, which fell 0.8 per cent to $55.6 billion in FY16, but showed growth of 1 per cent when petrol was excluded.
The company is undergoing a $1 billion restructure after a disappointing period that included declining sales and the failure of the Masters hardware business, which it sold earlier this month.
In the company's annual report, group CEO, Brad Banducci, says the company has "faced up to exiting businesses that are underperforming or loss making, changing the operating model to drive more accountability and focus on our core food and drinks business."
Woolworths has previously said there are a number of parties interested in its fuel business and current discussions over its sale may not result in a transaction.
Woolworths is trading up 0.58 per cent at $24.250 per share this morning, while Caltex is down 1.81 per cent at $33.690.
Author: James Perkins Connect via: Twitter LinkedIn


text:
Q: ColdFusion structure nested elements? I would like to set nested elements inside of the structure. Here is example of my current code:
<cfset fnResults = StructNew()>
<cfset dateList = "HD_DATE1,HD_DATE2,HD_DATE3,HD_DATE4" />
<cfset servicesEquipment = {
    1="Strongly Agree",
    2="Agree",
    3="Don't Know",
    4="Disagree",
    5="Strongly Disagree"
}>
<cfset isActive = {
    1="Yes ",
    0="No "
}>

<cfquery name="UserInfo" datasource="TestDB">
    SELECT TOP 1
        hd_yn1,
        hd_active,
        hd_date1,
        hd_status,
        hd_age1,
        hd_date2,
        hd_age2,
        hd_date3,
        hd_date4,
        hd_age3,
        hd_deg1,
        hd_deg2,
        hd_toner,
        hd_cfgr,
        hd_deg4,
        hd_deg5,
        hd_tonel,
        hd_cfgl,
        hd_hri,
        hd_comment,
        hd_rear,
        hd_lear,
        hd_tosound,
        LTRIM(RTRIM(si_last)) + ', ' + LTRIM(RTRIM(si_first)) AS hd_staff,
        (SELECT TOP 1 tm_name FROM hmMaster WHERE tm_tblid = 'HD_YN1' AND tm_code = hd_yn1) AS zhd_yn1,
        (SELECT TOP 1 tm_name FROM hmMaster WHERE tm_tblid = 'HD_STATUS' AND tm_code = hd_status) AS zhd_status,
        (SELECT TOP 1 tm_name FROM hmMaster WHERE tm_tblid = 'HD_AGE' AND tm_code = hd_age1) AS zhd_age1,
        (SELECT TOP 1 tm_name FROM hmMaster WHERE tm_tblid = 'HD_AGE' AND tm_code = hd_age2) AS zhd_age2,
        (SELECT TOP 1 tm_name FROM hmMaster WHERE tm_tblid = 'HD_AGE' AND tm_code = hd_age3) AS zhd_age3,
        (SELECT TOP 1 tm_name FROM hmMaster WHERE tm_tblid = 'HEAR_IND' AND tm_code = hd_hri) AS zhd_hri,
        (SELECT TOP 1 tm_name FROM hmMaster WHERE tm_tblid = 'HEAR_LOSS' AND tm_code = hd_deg1) AS zhd_deg1,
        (SELECT TOP 1 tm_name FROM hmMaster WHERE tm_tblid = 'HEAR_LOSS' AND tm_code = hd_deg4) AS zhd_deg4,
        (SELECT TOP 1 tm_name FROM hmMaster WHERE tm_tblid = 'HEAR_TYPE' AND tm_code = hd_deg2) AS zhd_deg2,
        (SELECT TOP 1 tm_name FROM hmMaster WHERE tm_tblid = 'HEAR_TYPE' AND tm_code = hd_deg5) AS zhd_deg5,
        (SELECT TOP 1 tm_name FROM hmMaster WHERE tm_tblid = 'HD_TONE' AND tm_code = hd_toner) AS zhd_toner,
        (SELECT TOP 1 tm_name FROM hmMaster WHERE tm_tblid = 'HD_TONE' AND tm_code = hd_tonel) AS zhd_tonel,
        (SELECT TOP 1 tm_name FROM hmMaster WHERE tm_tblid = 'HD_CFG' AND tm_code = hd_cfgr) AS zhd_cfgr,
        (SELECT TOP 1 tm_name FROM hmMaster WHERE tm_tblid = 'HD_CFG' AND tm_code = hd_cfgl) AS zhd_cfgl
    FROM userRec WITH (NOLOCK)
        LEFT OUTER JOIN staffInfo
            ON si_staff = hd_staff
    WHERE hd_userid = '10051989'
</cfquery>

<cfset fnResults.recordcount = UserInfo.recordcount>

<cfif UserInfo.recordcount EQ 0>
    <cfset fnResults.message = "No records were found.">
<cfelse>
    <cfloop query="UserInfo">
        <cfset qryRecs = StructNew()>
        <cfloop array="#UserInfo.getColumnList()#" index="columnName">
            <cfif listContains(dateList, columnName, ",")>
                <cfset qryRecs[columnName] = URLEncodedFormat(Trim(DateFormat(UserInfo[columnName][CurrentRow],'mm/dd/yyyy')))>
            <cfelseif columnName EQ 'hd_active'>
                <cfset qryRecs[columnName] = URLEncodedFormat((structKeyExists(isActive, LossInfo[columnName][CurrentRow]))? isActive[UserInfo[columnName][CurrentRow]]:"No ")>
            <cfelseif columnName EQ 'hd_tosound'>
                <cfset qryRecs[columnName] = URLEncodedFormat((structKeyExists(servicesEquipment, UserInfo[columnName][CurrentRow]))? servicesEquipment[UserInfo[columnName][CurrentRow]]:"")>
            <cfelse>
                <cfset qryRecs[columnName] = URLEncodedFormat(Trim(UserInfo[columnName][CurrentRow]))>
            </cfif>
        </cfloop>
    </cfloop>

    <cfset fnResults.data = qryRecs>
</cfif>

<cfdump var="#fnResults#">

Code above use some logic to manipulate the data. Here is example of my output after I dump fncResults:
DATA
struct
HD_ACTIVE   No%20
HD_AGE1     [empty string]
HD_AGE2     [empty string]
HD_AGE3     36
HD_CFGL     MMO
HD_CFGR     MMO
HD_COMMENT  Test
HD_DATE1    09%2F22%2F1993
HD_DATE2    [empty string]
HD_DATE3    [empty string]
HD_DATE4    [empty string]
HD_DEG1     II
HD_DEG2     MM
HD_DEG4     MM
HD_DEG5     UU
HD_HRI  NN
HD_LEAR     [empty string]
HD_REAR     [empty string]
HD_STAFF    [empty string]
HD_STATUS   PESS
HD_TONEL    ALL
HD_TONER    ALL
HD_TOSOUND  [empty string]
HD_YN1  Y
ZHD_AGE1    [empty string]
ZHD_AGE2    [empty string]
ZHD_AGE3    36
ZHD_CFGL    MIDDLE
ZHD_CFGR    Mild
ZHD_DEG1    Mild
ZHD_DEG2    Unknown
ZHD_DEG4    Mild
ZHD_DEG5    Unknown
ZHD_HRI     None
ZHD_STATUS  Maybe
ZHD_TONEL   All
ZHD_TONER   All
ZHD_YN1     Did Not
RECORDCOUNT     1

On the front end I have to set all fields that have letter 'z' in front of 'hs' to be my data for title attribute. Because of that I want to organize my structure to look like this:
DATA
    struct
    HD_ACTIVE   Value: No%20 Title: This is test
    HD_AGE3     Value: 36 Title: Years
    HD_COMMENT  Value: Test Title: Test

As a side note I have tried to set nested variables in my structure. Something like this: <cfset qryRecs[columnName].value =UserInfo[columnName][CurrentRow]> This throw an error:
Element HD_YN1 is undefined in a CFML structure referenced as part of an expression.

I'm not sure if I need one more structure in order to achive that. Also I'm not sure what is the best way to organize this kind of structure. If you have any suggestions or examples please let me know . Thank you!

A: This code snippet is not a complete answer but should help you in the nesting structs with the Value/Title keys.
<!--- in order to nest structs, the 'nesting' parent structs must be created before assigning values to them --->
<cfif NOT structKeyExists(qryRecs, "columnName")>
    <cfset qryRecs[columnName] = structNew()>
</cfif>
<!--- qryRecs[columnName] now exists as a struct so 'Value', 'Title', etc. keys can be added to it --->
<cfset qryRecs[columnName].value = UserInfo[columnName][CurrentRow]>

A: All the credit to @Scott-Jibben for explaining the issue in the first place. I'm posting this for a CFScript solution.
if( !structkeyexists( application, "testStruct" ) ){
    dump('application.testStruct does not exist;');
    application.testStruct = structNew(); // this line is key
} else {
    dump('application.testStruct exists - no error;');
}

if( !structkeyexists( application.testStruct, "keyName2" ) ){
    // you should only see this if you failed to include the StructNew() line above;
    dump('application.testStruct.keyName2 does not exist and could produce an error;');
        } else {
    dump('application.testStruct.keyName2 exist - no error;');
}

For added context, I needed to load some variables into the Application scope. If the variable existed, then a database query was skipped. If it was missing, a query was needed to load site settings. The nested structure would throw an error on the first hit of the page after the web server or service was restarted. After reading Scott's solution defining the nested structure, the app is working as expected after a restart.


text:
Арктичната зеленка (Somatochlora arctica) е вид насекомо от семейство Corduliidae. Населява торфени водоеми с гъсто обрасла водна повърхност. Възрастните индивиди се срещат през юли и август и са активни само през деня. Придържат се ниско над растенията и се придвижват с плавен полет. Този вид живее в блата и снася яйцата си в много малки вдлъбнатини, напълнени с вода. Ловува между дърветата и избягва откритите пространства.

Арктичната зеленка е застрашен вид в България и е включен в "Червената книга на България".

Разпространение
Среща се в Ирландия и Шотландия на запад през Северна Европа и Северна Азия до полуостров Камчатка и о. Хокайдо на изток. На юг ареалът е разкъсан и обхваща планинските вериги на Пиренеите, Алпите, Карпатите, Рила и Кавказ.

Източници

Somatochlora

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaWikipedia


3 post ignition switch wiring diagram. Making them at the proper place is a little. Below is the schematic diagram of the wiring for connecting a spdt toggle switch.
The leviton 30 amp industrial double pole white switches are ideal for residential commercial and institutional applications.
Double pole toggle switch wiring diagram. Here a single pole switch controls the power to a light fixture. Double switches sometimes called double pole. We will now go over the wiring diagram of a spdt toggle switch. How to wire a double switch.
Wiring a three way light switch is not a particularly difficult task there are only 3 connections to be made after all. Invalid argument supplied for foreach in srvusersserverpilotappsaltahaddipublicwp contentthemesaltahaddi. We have all the rocker switches we carry documented here as well as some special use diagrams. The source is at the switch and 2 conductor cable runs from there.
View our collection of helpful rocker switch wiring diagrams. A double switch allows you to operate two lights or appliances from the same location. Too much info to write it all down find a schematic of a basic wiring diagram that should include everything you need to know wire size fuse size etc poke. Wiring a single pole light switch.
This switch helps you control motor loads.


The CTBF (Cinema and Television Benevolent Fund) is the UK charity for Cinema, TV, and Film. Celebrating its 90th year in 2014, it was set up to help industry colleagues in times of difficulty. The JBAs are part of The CTBF's Talent Development stream.
The CTBF also hosts a calendar of high profile fundraising events including The Royal Film Performance™.
For more information on the charity and its activities please visit www.ctbf.co.uk.


text:
define(["./ng-class"], function($__0) {
  "use strict";
  if (!$__0 || !$__0.__esModule)
    $__0 = {default: $__0};
  var NgClass = $__0.NgClass;
  var NgContext = (function($__super) {
    function NgContext() {
      var uri = arguments[0] !== (void 0) ? arguments[0] : "";
      var map = arguments[1] !== (void 0) ? arguments[1] : [];
      $traceurRuntime.superConstructor(NgContext).call(this, NgContext);
      this.className = 'NgContext';
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      this.map = map;
    }
    return ($traceurRuntime.createClass)(NgContext, {}, {}, $__super);
  }(NgClass));
  return {
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    },
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  };
});

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaGithub


text:
Sam Dagher Delivers Lecture on the Syrian Conflict and Refugee Migration
Women of Diplomacy Leadership Program: Women Running
Diplomacy Professor Involved in new UN Biodiversity Treaty
China Continues to Gain International Notoriety through Belt and Road Initiative
Brexit Further Complicated Following Leaked Plans
The Diplomatic Envoy
Words Beyond Borders
Diplomacy News
Foreign Correspondents
SHUMUN
Escalation: Peaceful Protest to Violent Rebellion
Presidental Rhetoric
The "Anti-Vax" movement
Past FOCUS
Absolute Monarchs
Pornography Laws
Illegal Organ Trade
Narcotics Trade
Shadow Economies
Art and Global Issues
Olympics Preparations
Territorial Disputes
Political Silencing
Inaugural FOCUS
Alumni Spotlight Featured Sections November 2016
Alumni Spotlight: Fulbright Scholar Adela Perez-Franco
November 17, 2016 November 17, 2016 Tela Wittig	0 Comments Alumni, November2016
By Tela Wittig
A Fulbright scholarship is a prestigious honor, especially when awarded for a Spanish-speaking country, one of the most competitive programs with 394 applications submitted last year. Fortunately, Adela Perez-Franco, who graduated from the School of Diplomacy and International Relations in May, was one of three scholarship recipients from the Seton Hall Class of 2016.
Adela chose to spend a year assisting in an English classroom in Madrid, Spain. Aside from English, she teaches geography and history to students from the first to the fourth grades (the equivalent of middle school in the United States education system).
Experience and acquaintances here at Seton Hall University pushed her toward this program, so much that she said it simply "seemed like the next logical step." Adela realized that she enjoyed working with students when she volunteered as an English as a second language tutor for the Don Bosco program through the university's Division of Volunteer Efforts (DOVE). She also worked one-on-one with students as a tutor in the Academic Resource Center on campus. Most important, her Italian professor, Dr. Gabriella Romani, told Adela about the Fulbright scholarship and encouraged her to apply.
As if teaching three subjects to middle school students in a foreign language was not enough, Adela is also taking on a huge commitment in the Model United Nations program, which had solidified her decision to spend this year in Madrid. She is working primarily with third grade students to educate them on the many world issues that they will be encountering as their knowledge of the international system grows. The United Nations Sustainable Development Goals are particularly important for the students to familiarize themselves with, according to Adela, so she plans to put special emphasis in that knowledge. The institute that she is working with sends 10 delegates to a regional conference, from which the Spanish representatives of this year's Middle School Global Classrooms International Model United Nations Conference in New York City will be selected.
Adela believes that by teaching English to her students, she is opening doors for them in the future. More than just teaching English as a second language, she is her students' minds to a global classroom where they can learn from diverse cultural exchanges. In addition, she is helping students improve their writing, critical thinking, research, and public speaking skills, and hopes to build their self-confidence.
Adela is planning to take the Law School Aptitude Test (LSAT) while she is abroad, and upon her return in June 2017, she plans to attend law school to study international law.
← That's Debatable: Hackers Keep the World Honest
International Order Rattled by Clinton's Stunning Election Loss →
Tela Wittig
TELA WITTIG is a freshman in the School of Diplomacy working towards a degree in Diplomacy with minors in Modern Languages and Criminal Justice. She is from Ithaca, New York. After college, she hopes to work with the United Nations or the State Department to help facilitate peace in the Middle East. She is a member of SHUNA, Stand Up Be Loud, Alpha Phi International Fraternity, Rotaract Club, and the Student Alumni Association. Contact Tela at tela.wittig@student.shu.edu.
Human Rights Watch Report Reveals Stifled Speech in Gulf States
November 17, 2016 November 17, 2016 Mohammed Syed 0
Seton Hall Students, Faculty Attend Women's March in D.C.
January 26, 2017 November 5, 2017 Mariah McCloskey 0
From Understanding to Action: UNA-SHU Raises Funds for Refugees
November 17, 2016 November 17, 2016 Ajiya Doka 0
The Diplomatic Envoy is the undergraduate foreign affairs news organ of the School of Diplomacy and International Relations at Seton Hall University.
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text:
The Irish Province of the Order of Carmelites (O.Carm.)
Carmelite Spirituality
Elijah & Mary
Veneration of Mary
Gentle Presence
Lady of Mt Carmel I
Lady of Mt Carmel II
Lady of Mt Carmel III
Carmelite Marian Year
Assumption - Poem
Flos Carmeli Antiphon
Most Beloved of God
Carmelite Charism
The Brown Scapular
Carmelite Vows
Fraternity I
Fraternity II
Spirit of Elijah
Response of Love
Solemn Profession
Homily at Lourdes
Elizabeth of the Trinity
Blessing of Icon
Advent Figures
St Patrick - Spirituality
Saint for Today
Veneration of Relics
Easter Reflection
Pentecost Reflection
Prayer Holy Spirit
Regina Coeli Antiphon
Christmas Wonder
Wonder of the Crib
Word of the Lord
A Time of Festival
Kindle Festive Lights
LayCarmel
The Spirituality of St Patrick
These excerpts are taken from an essay by Christopher O'Donnell, O.Carm., which appears in "St Patrick: Spirit and Prayer" and are reproduced here with permission.
We have from St Patrick two brief works: his Confession, a spiritual autobiography, and an angry letter to the soldiers of the pirate Coroticus who had kidnapped and murdered some of Patrick's Christians.
Every time we read the Confession we can be struck by some other new thought. There are any number of ways of summing up this great work in a few words, depending on what element of Patrick's teaching or complex personality we focus on at a particular time. But there is perhaps one key to his spirituality, what he called the "desire of his life" which he wants others to know. This lies somehow in his single-mindedness. He had fallen in love with God, he wanted nothing but what God wanted. God's will was expressed for him in the very concrete terms of a mission in exile – so nothing else mattered.
People today seek spirituality. Some find a value, a meaning for their lives which continues to sustain them. Others try on spiritualities like new clothes, and abandon them when they become tired of them. Patrick shows us a spirituality, which is very simple. He is loved, blessed and called by God and he responds. Patrick had stickability. His holy mountain in the West of Ireland – Croagh Patrick – has many lessons for us. We can see its majestic summit from a distance. But as we begin to climb, the summit vanishes and all we can see is the intervening slope. The summit is often covered by fog. For ordinary people Croagh Patrick is quite a difficult climb, and it demands grit and determination to get to the top. Patrick can lead us to ascend life's mountain where, like Moses and Patrick, we meet the living God.
Saint Patrick is the patron saint and apostle of Ireland. He was born about the year 389 in what was then Roman Britain, possibly in Wales. Around the year 403 he was carried off by pirates and sold as a slave in Ireland where he remained for six years before escaping back to Britain. However, the call of the people of Ireland was ever with him and so he became a priest and was consecrated bishop by St Germanus at Auxerre. He returned to Ireland to take up the missionary work of St Palladius. He travelled about the island bringing the message of the Gospel and his work was supported by miracles, though much of his life is now unknown to us. There are only two writings of his known to us today, of which the Confessions are the largest and most important. Patrick established what is now the primatial church of Ireland at Armagh about the year 444.
He died at Saul on Strangford Lough in northeast Ireland about 461. At Saul there is a grave reputed to be that of St Patrick and also of St Brigid and St Columba (also known as St Colmcille). The three bodies are said to have been brought there by John De Courcy in the twelfth century, thereby fulfilling the old legend that the three saints should lie together in the same place in death.
Patrick's feastday is celebrated with full solemnity in Ireland and throughout many parts of the world on March 17.
In the west of Ireland there is a mountain named after the saint – Croagh Patrick – to which many thousands of pilgrims come each year to climb to top of this stony mountain and to pray for Patrick's protection on Ireland and its people. Many still complete the walk barefoot.
"St Patrick: Spirit and Prayer" by Jude Groden, RSM, with essay on the spirituality of St Patrick by Christopher O'Donnell, O.Carm. © Jude Groden and Christopher O'Donnell, O.Carm. 2002. ISBN: 0 85597 637 3. Published by McCrimmons: Great Wakering, Essex, England.


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The number of new coronavirus infections in the last week jumped by about 55%, acetaminophen vs. nsaids for arthritis although the number of deaths remained stable, the World Health Organization said in its latest pandemic report.
In the weekly report issued Tuesday night, the U.N. health agency said there were about 15 million new COVID-19 cases last week and more than 43,000 deaths. Every world region reported a rise in COVID-19 cases except for Africa, where officials saw an 11% drop.
Last week, WHO noted a pandemic record high of 9.5 million new infections in a single week, calling it a "tsunami" of disease.
WHO said the extremely contagious omicron variant continues to define the pandemic globally and is now crowding out the previously dominant delta variant. It said omicron, which was first detected in southern Africa in late November, accounts for nearly 59% of all sequences shared with the largest publicly available global database of viruses. WHO said omicron had now proven to have a shorter doubling time, with increasing evidence it was able to "evade immunity." It also noted there were numerous studies that it is less severe compared to previous variants.
After a steep rise in omicron cases in South Africa after the variant was first detected, the epidemic quickly dropped and experts believe the wave has now passed. WHO said this week that after a continuous rise of COVID-19 across Africa, cases fell this week for the first time.
Scientists in Britain and the U.S. say there are early signs the crush of omicron may have peaked, but they are still uncertain how the next phase of the pandemic might unfold. WHO noted the Americas reported the highest-ever number of COVID-19 cases this week, with a 78% spike, mainly driven by the U.S.
The number of new cases in Europe rose by 31%, while there was a 10% drop in deaths.
The biggest jump in COVID-19 infections was noted in Southeast Asia, where cases increased by more than 400%, with the largest numbers reported in India, Timor-Leste, Thailand and Bangladesh. The numbers of deaths in the region fell by 6%.
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At Vehicle Mats UK we like to keep things simple, ordering Morris Car Mats has never been easier. Complete step 1 and leave the rest to us.
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Head Soccer – Games for Android 2018 – Free download. Head Soccer – Oversimplified football simulator.
Head Soccer is an oversimplified 2D arcade football simulator for Android. The game features pixel-like 2D graphics, really simple controls, and addictive gameplay. It is a really nice example of the mixture of simulator and timekiller genres.
The game controls are as easy as ABC: use the on-screen buttons to move your character left or right, kick the ball, jump and use your power kick. The game features several game modes—arcade, tournament, survival, league, and multiplayer—where you will need to play either against computer or real people on a small football field.
Every game will be 30 seconds long and during this time you will need to score as many goals as possible. After scoring the first goal, you will be able to use your power kick that will help you to score the goal 100%. And though the game features almost no enhanced functionality, its gameplay may seem interesting for killing some time.
Head Soccer is a simple arcade football simulator game for Android. Simplicity and addictiveness is its key peculiarity, but we believe that the gameplay could have been more dynamic and the graphics doesn't look good enough. The game is distributed for free.
Do you mean you require assistance to download the app?


The stylish Kia Forte hardly looks like an economy compact sedan - it's too refined-looking. There is so much curb appeal in the new Kia Forte that just parking it in your driveway will increase the value of your home! Feast your eyes on the Forte's bold new front-end styling and sporty grille, then take a closer look at the dynamic LED Positioning Lights and taillights. The 2016 Forte is truly stunning, coming and going. Kia gives you a choice of several awesome Forte models, including the 2-door Kia Koupe and the hatchback Forte5. See them all at Cumberland Kia, one of the most respected car dealerships in the area. We always go the extra mile for our customers, who quickly become our friends for life. Visit our spacious facility at 1560 Interstate Dr in Cookeville, TN, and we'll show you the new Forte in all its glory. You may not recognize the 2016 Forte, with its gorgeous elongated roofline and classy new profile, but we are here to point it out in the showroom for you. We also serve Lebanon, Crossville, Mcminville, Franklin, and Chattanooga, so schedule a visit soon!
The Kia Forte LX model is equipped with a powerful little 1.8L Inline 4 engine that kicks up 145 hp and 130 pound-feet of torque; the upgraded Forte EL offers a more aggressive 2.0L engine with 173 hp and 166 pound-feet. Both have Dual Continuously Variable Valve Timing (CVVT) and a DOHC 16-valve train, and both give you enviable fuel efficiency, but models with the 1.8L engine and automatic transmission get the best mileage - 26 mpg city, 39 mpg highway, and 31 mpg combined EPA ratings. The peppy Forte handles like a dream, responding to your every command with no delay. It is well-known for taming choppy, pot-holed pavement, and for superior handling in turns and on twisty canyon roads. Be sure to try out the three different selectable steering modes available on some 2016 Kia Forte models.
Kia Motors has always made safety its top priority, and the 2016 Kia Forte has all the latest features you want to keep you and your loved ones safe and sound. Starting with a revolutionary impact-absorbing frame that directs crash impact away from the occupants, the new Kia has built-in peace of mind. The advanced airbag system includes side seat-mounted airbags, curtain first- and second-row overhead airbags, and airbag occupancy sensors. The crowning achievement, though, is the Forte's "smart" active headrests that yield in case of impact, to keep your noggin in one piece.
Critics have been doing a double-take over the 2016 Forte's sporty appearance and playful spirit, but they shouldn't be surprised. Kia is not only one of the largest and fastest-growing carmakers in the U.S., it is also one of the most innovative. If you haven't been paying attention, Kia sedans have been thoroughly re-imagined in the last few years. Perhaps the most noticeable upgrades have been the spunky powertrain and professional handling, proving our point that the 2016 Kia Forte makes driving fun again.
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Come to Cumberland Kia for a first-hand look at all the different trim levels and hot new colors available on the 2016 Kia Forte. We are conveniently located at 1560 Interstate Dr in Cookeville, TN, and we also serve our neighbors in Lebanon, Crossville, Mcminville, Franklin, and Chattanooga. So drop by for a sneak peek and a robust test-drive, but be prepared to be blown away. The 2016 Kia Forte is unlike any mid-size premium sedan you've ever driven. We guarantee it.