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Week 13 Picks
Last Week: 11-5 Season: 95-81
The last couple of weeks have been much better for yours truly in the picking department. Two weeks ago, I sat four games under .500 for the season. Now, two weeks of success have turned that around (If you missed my selections last week I did them on Twitter, with the Thanksgiving holiday and the fact that I spent it in Nebraska with the Buffs there was just no time).
A quick note on last night's game: Michael Vick certainly deserves to be in contention for MVP. The way he is playing, I'm not sure any NFC team wants to see the Eagles in the playoffs. As for Houston, they continue to stumble and let winnable games get away. I can't see any way that Gary Kubiak isn't in trouble at the end of the season. At any rate, on to this week's selections, as we go for several upset specials:
– Bills over Vikings: Upset pick #1. Look, I know the Vikings won last week, but it wasn't as if they jumped off the stat sheet against the Redskins. I do think they are playing harder for Leslie Frazier than they did for Brad Childress, but this team still doesn't feel right from Brett Favre all the way to the defensive side of the ball. I pick the upset because the Bills are rapidly improving and no one seems to be noticing. They would have beaten the Steelers last week if not for a dropped ball in the end zone. The Metrodome is always loud, but if Ryan Fitzpatrick continues to play well and the Bills defense can slow down Adrian Peterson, I think they have more than a puncher's chance. I'm going with the upset.
– Browns over Dolphins: Upset pick #2. Miami played very well last week in Oakland, but they certainly have not been consistent, especially on their home field. They have just struggled to put back to back solid performances together. The Browns continue to be among the surprise teams in the league, and I think Peyton Hillis could be in line for another huge day. Frankly I don't think this is much of a stretch, I only call it an upset because a vast majority of folks are picking Miami.
– Saints over Bengals: The complete mismatch of the week. a classic case of Super Bowl contender vs league doormat/soap opera. If I hadn't already used New Orleans in my eliminator pool, I would do so here without hesitation. The sad part is the Bengals' diva receivers probably don't even regret the disastrous T-Ocho Show.
– Cowboys over Colts: Upset pick #3. The Colts are simply not the Colts right now. Injuries have played their part for sure, especially Dallas Clark and Joseph Addai. Peyton Manning is trying his best to keep it together, but even he is not having a Manning-esque season. The Cowboys meanwhile look like a new team under Jason Garrett. Frankly this doesn't look right because I have a hard time picturing the Colts under .500 and not in the playoffs, but that is rapidly where they are heading. This is more of a hunch than anything, but I think Dallas wins on the road.
– Jaguars over Titans: Tennessee destroyed the Jags in the first meeting, but a lot has changed since then. For starters, David Garrard is healthy and Maurice Jones-Drew has looked much more like his old self in recent weeks. For the Titans, you know things are bad when their best hope is that Kerry Collins MIGHT be healthy enough to start on Sunday. Chris Johnson was so ineffective last week he was held to five yards, and the Jaguars have a much better rush defense than Houston. I think Jacksonville wins, and it may not be particularly close.
– Chiefs over Broncos: I gave my in depth assessment of the Broncos earlier in the week. Frankly, this game is going to get ugly for them. Arrowhead Stadium has never been kind to Denver (the Broncos are just 2-16 there in December all-time), plus the Chiefs are going to be highly motivated to avenge the 49-29 defeat a few weeks ago. Kansas City is the best rushing team in the league, and while the Broncos contained Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones in the first meeting, they won't be able to do it twice. Kansas City rolls, and perhaps Todd Haley will actually shake Josh McDaniels' hand this time.
– Chargers over Raiders: San Diego lost the first meeting because of very poor special teams play. This time, Philip Rivers will have such a good game it won't come down to special teams. The Chargers are hitting the gas pedal hard for their annual December run (Philip Rivers has never lost in the month if you can believe that), and they have both momentum and revenge on their side here. The Raiders went back to looking lost and confused last week against Miami, and this is simply put a bad matchup for them. The Chargers win this easily.
– Giants over Redskins: Another mismatch on tap. The G-men had a nice bounce back victory last week and look to get back in the race for the best record in the NFC. Washington continues to really be a mixed bag, and this just doesn't bode well for them heading on the road, especially since Mike Shanahan can't seem to find a healthy running back right now. I think the Giants win easily behind their strong running game and defense.
– Bears over Lions: This is my eliminator selection for this week (the first time I've taken one of these things into December). When I found out the Lions are starting third string quarterback Drew Stanton, that's all I need to know. Shaun Hill was actually doing a capable job leading the offense, but Stanton doesn't stand a chance against a Julius Peppers-led pass rush that was able to disrupt Michael Vick last week. The other key for the Bears is Mike Martz has finally discovered his running game. I think Matt Forte will be more than effective, and the Bears defense will completely shut down Stanton.
– Packers over 49ers: The 49ers are still in playoff contention only because they have the fortune to be part of the worst division in NFL history. I am genuinely fearful we'll see a 7-9 champion come out of that division. The fact that San Francisco is just one game out at 4-7 is downright disturbing. Despite their playoff chances, I don't think they have much of a shot at Lambeau Field. The Packers suffered a tough road loss in Atlanta last week, but they are still very much in play for a division title themselves in a legitimate race. Green Bay should get this one without too much difficulty.
– Falcons over Buccaneers: It's hard to believe that is a legitimate big game in the NFC South. Atlanta won the first meeting at home. but it was much closer than expected. Tampa Bay is clearly the league's biggest surprise, but I'm sure they are wishing they were part of the NFC West this year. New Orleans and Atlanta are both sure playoff teams, so the Buccaneers still have a large hill to climb. I think this should be a great game, and while I do give Tampa Bay a chance, I think the Falcons are the best team in the NFC right now. I am starting to think they might be the NFC representative in the Super Bowl.
– Seahawks over Panthers: This game could be the dud of the week. Carolina did nearly pull the upset last week in Cleveland, and that is one reason I shied away from Seattle for my eliminator pick this week. The other reason is the Seahawks have been flat awful in recent weeks, especially last week at home against the Chiefs. The only reason I'm not going with an upset here is because Seattle is tied for the division lead despite their sub.500 record. Therefore, they have something tangible to play for when Carolina does not. A Carolina win wouldn't shock me, but if Seattle has any pride at all they'll win this one at home.
– Rams over Cardinals: Arizona hit a new low last week when they got clobbered at home on Monday night against San Francisco. Derek Anderson's postgame tirade made things worse. If Arizona continues to be that inept offensively, they may not win another game all season. St. Louis continues to show improvement, for Sam Bradford had his first 300-yard game in Denver last week. St. Louis might be the least bad so to speak of the awful NFC West teams. I think they will win this one rather comfortably.
– Ravens over Steelers: For once the night games are the two best games of the week. Baltimore won the first meeting between these two teams in Pittsburgh, but that was without Ben Roethlisberger. Speaking of the Steelers quarterback, he's trying to debunk rumors of a broken foot this week. I still stand behind the Ravens as my preseason Super Bowl pick because of their defense and balanced offensive attack. One thing you can bank on with this matchup is it will be decided by a field goal or less. I still go with the Ravens on their home field, especially after Pittsburgh's near miss in Buffalo last week.
– Patriots over Jets: The winner of this game will very likely win the AFC East. Regardless, it looks like both teams are headed to the playoffs. The Jets won the first meeting, but the Patriots have been retooled since then, subtracting Randy Moss and adding Deion Branch and Danny Woodhead. I like New England here for two reasons. One, they are at home, where they rarely if ever lose especially in a big game. Second, I still think the Jets can owe a large part of their record to luck. At some point that is going to run out on them.
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What Now Broncos?
By now I certainly don't have to tell you that I bleed orange and blue. I've been a die hard Broncos fan since I've been seven years old. In that time, I have only seen four sub-.500 seasons, and this is roughly my 25th season of watching the Broncos with a fine tooth comb every Sunday. With those numbers it's certainly fair to say that us Broncos fans have had it pretty darn good compared to a lot of other franchises. That time span (since 1986, the first season I even was aware of who the Broncos were or what football was) has seen five Super Bowl appearances with two wins, and 12 playoff appearances. Simply put, we're used to seeing the Broncos succeed, or at the very least be in position to compete for the playoffs every year. 3-8 is uncharted territory for the Denver Broncos and is frankly not acceptable. The last time they started a season this bad was in 1990, and from what I remember it was because the team was littered with injuries that season. They made the Super Bowl the year before and the AFC Championship game the year after, so clearly 1990 was an aberration. This feels different, this feels worse. I look at the current Broncos and find myself realizing what fans of the Lions and other such teams have been feeling for many years.
The negativity toward Josh McDaniels is absolutely staggering these days, and frankly it's not hard to see why. He is just 5-16 in his past 21 games, his 6-0 start last season long in the rear view mirror. The videotaping incident in London certainly only adds fuel to the fire (For those unfamiliar, McDaniels and the Broncos were fined a combined $100,000 for illegally taping a 49ers walkthrough the day before the game. The person who shot the video has since been fired). For now, I believe the Broncos when they say the tape wasn't viewed, but I am very skeptical as to why it wasn't reported sooner and I am also fearful of connections to Spygate. After all, McDaniels was New England's offensive coordinator during that time. While it seems as though the Patriots' transgressions in 2007 constituted much more blatant cheating, the fact that the Broncos might have engaged in anything even a little wrong is very disconcerting . I just hope that we don't see any new, worse evidence coming to light on this. If we don't, I'm willing to give McDaniels the benefit of the doubt that it was an honest mistake.
Getting back to the team, the on field product is getting so bad that I sometimes wonder if it's not worth just blowing the entire thing up and starting over. This doesn't all fall on McDaniels, for I documented a number of embarrassing moments late in the Mike Shanahan era as well when he was fired. Unfortunately, the trend of embarrassing losses has continued. In two of the past three home games, the Broncos gave up a franchise record 59 points to the arch rival Raiders in three quarters, and then trailed by 20 to the hapless Rams a few weeks later. I know the Rams are improved, but come on, there is no occasion when it's even remotely acceptable to trail them by 20 in your own house, ever. My question is though, is this just a rogue bad season, or are the pieces there for the future? In an effort to assess the team, I offer a position by position breakdown:
Quarterback: This to me is not the problem. Kyle Orton is having a Pro Bowl season. His red zone passing numbers have been particularly outstanding (only one red zone interception as a Bronco in two years). I'm still not sure what Tim Tebow brings long term because we haven't seen much of him, but he has been productive in the red zone as well. I do not think Orton deserves to be benched, but in some ways I wouldn't mind seeing if Tebow is going to be a bust or not. Brady Quinn is useless right now and that is proving to be a horrible trade (more below). While many people still grill McDaniels for trading Jay Cutler, I think Orton is actually better.
Running back: I really like Knowshon Moreno, but he hasn't been able to stay healthy. When he's been in, he's been effective when he's had room to run. After him there is nothing whatsoever, which is part of the problem. Correll Buckhalter is considerably slower than last year. Lance Ball? I'm not sure how many other rosters he would make. Laurence Maroney? I think he might benefit from a change of scenery, but it's clear now we lit a draft pick on fire by acquiring him. The Broncos need some depth so Moreno doesn't have to do it all by himself. Meanwhile, Peyton Hillis is the toast of Cleveland and has outrushed the entire Broncos backfield by himself. This after McDaniels stubbornly refused to use Hillis last season. Hillis for Quinn has be in consideration for worst trade in Broncos history doesn't it?
Wide Receiver: Again people roast McDaniels for trading Brandon Marshall, but the Broncos' passing game is thriving just fine without him. Brandon Lloyd is a sure fire Pro Bowler and All-Pro selection for the season he's having, and Jabar Gaffney and Eddie Royal are catching their share of passes as well. Demariyus Thomas is a real talent and made a number of terrific plays, but he continues to be plagued with a foot injury he suffered in college. I do think the tight ends on this team are way too absent. Daniel Graham is way too talented to not be more involved, and I do not understand the obsession with Dan Gronkowski. Gronkowski was acquired from Detroit for Alphonso Smith, which has to rank as another boneheaded trade (more on Smith in the defensive backs section). Overall I think this position is fine, but I would like to see more from the tight ends.
Offensive Line: This is where the problems lie on offense right now. The unit has frankly been terrible in every game this season except for a couple. This is why the running game is the worst in the league. People bag on Moreno constantly, but it's not his fault he's continually dodging defenders before he gets to the line of scrimmage or doesn't have holes to run through. Ryan Clady is a Pro Bowl left tackle, but even he hasn't performed to his full ability this year, partially due to the fact he tore his ACL in a pickup basketball game in April. Ryan Harris is a solid right tackle, but he has been beat up as well and wasn't in the lineup most of the first half of the year. There are two rookies on the interior of the line, left guard Zane Beadles and center J.D. Walton, which explains a lot. At some point though, the Broncos need to find out if they are answers long term or not. This is the area on offense where the most improvement is needed. It's also the area that was never a question under Mike Shanahan.
Defensive Line: This unit has been mediocre at best. The Broncos are running a 3-4 scheme, which should play to their advantage considering their linebackers, but the linemen up front have largely been dominated in their battles with opposing offensive lines. This unit was a major question mark for years under Shanahan as well, with numerous wasted drafted picks, so this is not completely a new phenomenon on the new staff. Still the acquisitions they've made, specifically Jamal Williams and Justin Bannon, have not worked out. The defensive line to put it simply needs a major upgrade, and this area has not been addressed even remotely in either of Josh McDaniels' first two drafts.
Linebackers: The talent is here for this group to be very good. D.J. Williams is one of the best tacklers in all of football, but had a DUI a few weeks ago and could face a league suspension next season. Robert Ayers has made significant improvement over his first season, but like many other players has not been able to stay on the field due to injury. Mario Haggan is one of the few McDaniels additions on defense that has worked out, for he has been very active and his enthusiasm spreads to the rest of the defense. Elvis Dumervil is one of the best pass rushers in the league, but the Broncos lost him on the first day of training camp. If this group returns healthy next season, it's the one area on defense that doesn't need a lot of tinkering.
Defensive backs: Champ Bailey and Brian Dawkins are two great players who have been around for a long time, but both are entering the twilight of their careers. It's hard to believe that this is Bailey's seventh season with the Broncos after being acquired via trade for Clinton Portis. The Broncos have certainly gotten used to him being back there, but his interception numbers have really tailed off the past few seasons, partially because he has lost a step but more so because the Broncos have been unable to find a complement on the other side of the field. Other teams are having a field day throwing towards rookie Parrish Cox, and there were others before him (Dre' Bly anyone?). As for Dawkins, he is a great leader in the locker room, but he is not the same player as he was even last year. He is just not getting to the ball and making tackles the way he used to. I do like Andre Goodman and Renaldo Hill, and Darcel McBath I think has the talent to eventually make an impact as a safety. I mentioned Alphonso Smith earlier, for this is a player the Broncos drafted in the second round last year (after trading a first round pick the next year to move into that slot), and then the team gave up in him before this season started. Smith has five interceptions for the Lions this season and seems to be thriving there. This is just another example of a move that hasn't worked out. In short, I think the secondary could need major retooling soon, unless the aging veterans find the fountain of youth in the offseason.
Special teams: Kicker and punter are fine. Matt Prater is largely accurate and has a good leg, while Brittan Colquitt has been one of the few bright spots this season. The Broncos have a number of guys with potential to return kicks (Royal, Thomas, Cox), but so far no one has made a major impact there. By and large I don't feel this has been a major issue, but there is always room for it to be retooled and improved.
I know a lot of fans really want McDaniels fired and think that will automatically make everything better. I will admit that it is becoming harder for me to back him, but I want to believe he can turn this around. Let's not forget the Broncos fired Mike Shanahan because he missed the playoffs in six of his final 10 seasons, including his final three. Shanahan is 5-6 in Washington right now, so it's not like he's going gangbusters there. Josh McDaniels has come in and has basically retooled every area of the team in his image. Similar to a college program, I think it's fair to give him time to see if it will work once everything is in place. This team has been decimated by injuries, and some of his moves can't be judged until the rookies get more experience. The Hillis and Smith trades were awful no question, but you can't deny that he made the right call trading Cutler and Marshall.
I just worry that if Pat Bowlen fires McDaniels after this season, what happens if a new coach wants to come in and start from scratch with his guys? Will we be waiting another two years from him to get his team in place? Does Bowlen even have a name in mind if he does make a coaching change? I say unless Bill Cowher or Jon Gruden is in the bag, we're in deep enough with McDaniels at this point that we might as well give him another year to see if it works. Let's see what happens with a healthy O-line and Elvis Dumervil back. I will say these final five games could be telling. It may sound crazy, but a positive end to the season can have a carryover effect into next year. If we don't win another game the rest of the way? Well then I might change my mind, especially if the Broncos continue to get blown out each week. But if they show some fight, are competitive, and can even steal a couple, than I'm willing to roll the dice and see what this regime does in the third year.
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Last Week: 4-9 (Yikes!) Season: 70-74
Last week was terrible for yours truly. The good news is that one of my four correct picks was my eliminator selection, which means I am still alive there. Unfortunately, we're 0-1 to begin things this week. I'm not really sure what I was thinking picking Miami, because their offense looked lost and confused on Thursday night. The Bears defense might actually be that good, but I still think they're winning in spite of Jay Cutler, not because of him. Now onto very rapid fire picks because the week totally snuck up on me.
– Bills over Bengals: Minor upset alert. Look, both teams are terrible. Call this a hunch more than anything. Marvin Lewis will need a hug by the time this season is over.
– Patriots over Colts: To me this doesn't have the luster of previous meetings. I'm actually not so sure this is going to be close, especially since it's outside in cold weather on grass.
– Jets over Texans: I still say the Jets are the league's luckiest team, but this week they host the biggest underachievers in football. I have officially given up on the Texans, for their record always falls well below their talent level.
– Ravens over Panthers: It's really too bad I've already used Baltimore in the eliminator. Brian St. Pierre under center against one of the league's best defenses? Oh boy.
– Jaguars over Browns: Strangely enough this might be one of the best games of the week. I really like the way David Garrard is playing right now. If he keeps it up Sunday the Jags can win this battle of surprises.
– Steelers over Raiders: This is not the gimmie it appeared to be a month ago for the Steel Curtain, but at home I think they will find a way to bounce back from last week's embarrassment.
– Titans over Redskins: Because I would pick the Redskins to lose to any team after what I saw on Monday night. That would include most of the top 10 teams in college. I also think Chris Johnson could be in line for a huge day here.
– Chiefs over Cardinals: Kansas City is unbeaten at Arrowhead, and that's more than enough against one of the league's doormats. I think the Chiefs are actually much better than what they showed last week.
– Cowboys over Lions: This is my eliminator selection this week and I'm frankly a little nervous about it, but Detroit never wins on the road and Dallas looked like a legitimate NFL team again last week under new coach Jason Garrett.
– Packers over Vikings: Brett Favre really has to be regretting his decision to come back. I sense the Packers are about to make a major run and I still think they have an excellent chance to be the number one seed in the NFC playoffs.
– Falcons over Rams: Atlanta is quietly emerging as a Super Bowl contender. If they truly are in that category, they shouldn't slip up here, although St. Louis could potentially make this interesting.
– Saints over Seahawks: New Orleans has been very inconsistent this season, but this is part of a very friendly part of the schedule. The only question here should be Saints' margin of victory.
– 49ers over Buccaneers: Mini upset alert. Tampa Bay has been playing well, but I think the 49ers might be starting to get into their groove, and don't look now but they might still win the putrid NFC West despite a 1-5 start.
– Eagles over Giants: If Michael Vick keeps playing like he did last week, there aren't many teams that will be able to slow down the Eagles much less beat them. The Giants have the offense to keep up, but I like Philly on their home field.
– Chargers over Broncos: I picked against Denver last week and they won, so I'm hoping the trend continues. However, to be honest, this is a tough matchup for the Broncos trying to slow down Philip Rivers. I will be curious to see if last week's emergence of the Broncos' running game was a fluke.
Where was THAT all season?!?
AP Photo/Ed Andrieski
First I'm going to one more plea to Pat Bowlen: please dispense with the blue jerseys once and for all. The Broncos belong in orange. The biggest mistake the Broncos owner has made has nothing to do with coaching changes or player personnel. It was switching to those blue jerseys in the late 90s. Orange is the true Broncos color. The fans want it. It is time to make the switch back and correct the error.
Secondly, I was going to spend a significant amount of time bashing Chiefs coach Todd Haley for his refusal to shake the hand of Josh McDaniels after the game. Since Haley has now apologized, I'm not going to waste a significant amount of time on that issue. I do think it goes without saying that Haley was 100 percent wrong, regardless of anything he thought the Broncos might have done late in the game. Besides after seeing the lead CU blew against Kansas, I'm willing to say that no lead is ever really truly safe anymore.
Now, as far as the state of the Broncos, it is amazing to think that they are just two games out of first place in the AFC West despite their 3-6 record. Well, maybe amazing isn't the right word. What's a one word description for "most mediocre division in NFL history". Considering the Broncos have four games remaining against division opponents, the optimistic side of me is not ready to write them off just yet. What we saw Sunday from the Broncos was exactly what we needed to see: a running game that actually gained more than one yard per carry. The running game was so effective that Knowshon Moreno had a career high rushing day. It's no coincidence that this is the first game that featured a healthy offensive line. The return of Ryan Harris at right tackle was especially critical. If the Broncos can continue to run with that kind of effectiveness, it is easy to get really excited about the prospects of the offense as a whole. The way Kyle Orton is throwing and the way Tim Tebow has proved effective around the goal line are all positives, but the running game remains the biggest key.
Defensively, the numbers are a little misleading. Matt Cassel did have a career high passing day yes, but most of that came during garbage time when the Chiefs were throwing the football on every play. The important numbers for the Broncos lie in their rushing defense, where Denver held the Chiefs to just 51 yards rushing on 22 carries. Kansas City came into the game ranked number one in the NFL in rushing, while Denver's defense ranked 31st. The Broncos stepped up and held Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones to a combined 2.2 yards per carry. Mario Haggan also registered three sacks, including one that resulted in a fumble return touchdown by Jason Hunter to give the Broncos an insurmountable 35-0 lead in the second quarter.
The bottom line for the Broncos is that the bye week really did them a lot of good. They were somehow able to shore up their two biggest areas of weakness, running the football and stopping the run. Granted, it's only one game, and we may see the ugliness rear its head again next Monday night in San Diego, but at the very least it allows the Broncos to begin the second half of the season on the right foot. Is this a Super Bowl contender? Certainly not. Are they a playoff team? Highly doubtful. Only one 2-6 team has rebounded to make the playoffs in NFL history, and that was back in 1970. What I'm hoping is that the Broncos can continue to show improvement each week. This win against a very good Kansas City team showed what the Broncos can be capable of. Now, let's see if they are able to keep it up.
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Last week: 7-6 Season: 67-64
I'm off to an 0-1 start this week. I'm picking the Thursday night games on my Twitter account. Last night the Falcons made a major statement by beating the Ravens 26-21 in the Georgia Dome. While I am tempted to rip into the Ravens for their inexplicable use of prevent defense, I instead will give a tip of the cap to Matt Ryan for leading the winning drive for Atlanta in the final minute. Atlanta proved that they belong in the Super Bowl discussion. I still think the Ravens do too. Now, on to the picks. By the way I am still alive in the eliminator pool thanks to picking the Saints last week (and managing to avoid picking the Patriots as they fell flat on their faces in Cleveland).
– Bills over Lions: Because if the Bills don't win this game they might very well be looking at 0-16. They have played hard in recent weeks, and this looks to be a game they might finally be able to win, mainly because Matthew Stafford is once again out for the Lions, already his third injury in his first two seasons. Detroit has shown they can now compete at home, but I'm still waiting for them to show something away from Ford Field.
– Titans over Dolphins: How will Randy Moss fare in his Titans debut? Perhaps he's the only one who truly knows, but the presence of a deep threat in the Titans' offense can only help Chris Johnson. Tennessee's defense has been one of the league's best against the run this season, and that's not good news for a Miami team that has seen both Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams struggle at times this season. The Dolphins have still yet to win a home game this season despite outstanding play on the road.
– Browns over Jets: I would say upset alert here, but to be honest I'm not so sure this can really be considered that big of an upset. I'll say it again: I'm still not buying the Jets hype. They were extremely lucky to win last week in Detroit, and likely would have lost had Matthew Stafford not gotten hurt in the fourth quarter. I think Mark Sanchez is highly overrated and could do a much better job utilizing his weapons on offense. I also think the Browns may the league's hottest team, having bumped off the Saints and Patriots the last two games. Last week I nearly called their win over New England but was too gun shy to pull the trigger. Not this time. Peyton Hillis is running well and Colt McCoy doesn't look like a rookie. I like the Browns to win this at home.
– Colts over Bengals: This won't even be a game. Peyton Manning surely won't allow the Colts to lose twice in a row, and especially won't allow them to fall at home in a game where they are a clear favorite. Despite the injuries around him, he continues to be able to move the offense down the field. As for Cincy, Carson Palmer no longer looks like an elite quarterback, and the Bengals are so much of a soap opera that I don't see them beating anyone right now, especially if Chad Ochocinco continues to not catch passes.
– Jaguars over Texans: Please do a favor, next season if I pick the Texans to do anything, please send me a nasty note telling me what an idiot I am. I really thought that this would finally be the year Houston broke out and became a playoff team, especially when they won their first two games. The more I watch them however, the more I realize their defense still isn't very good, and despite all the weapons offensively they continue to woefully underachieve. Meanwhile David Garrard has played out of his mind this year, and I sense a big breakout game for Maurice Jones-Drew this week.
– Chiefs over Broncos: As much as I want to give my Broncos the benefit of the doubt coming off the bye, I just can't do it. I really don't like the look of this matchup, especially in the wake of leading tackler D.J. Williams getting a DUI last night. The Chiefs run the ball better than any other team, and pretty soon they will run even better once they realize that Jamaal Charles is twice as effective as Thomas Jones. The Broncos have been atrocious against the run in each of their past four losses, so from a matchup standpoint this just doesn't bode well for Denver. Besides, I have picked the Broncos to win each of their past three games and they have lost them all. I hope that reversing my pick will also reverse Denver's fortunes on the field.
– Giants over Cowboys: This should be a popular eliminator pick for anyone, except I have already used the G-men this year. The Giants are playing as well as anyone in the NFC, thanks to a combination of effective running and passing to go with a defense that is more than doing the job. The time is long past to take the Giants very seriously as a Super Bowl contender? Dallas may well play harder for new coach Jason Garrett than they did for Wade Phillips, but it still doesn't change the fact that Jon Kitna is under center. That alone makes it impossible to back the Cowboys in a road game right now against anyone.
– Vikings over Bears: Minnesota is a bizarre situation considering that multiple players have anonymously stated that they want Brad Childress fired. Brett Favre is undoubtedly regretting his decision to come back this season, and the defense still isn't playing anywhere close to last year's level. Despite all that, they managed to get it together and pull off a come from behind win last week against Arizona. I think regardless of what the players think of Childress, they will still be professionals and show up on Sundays. For that reason, I pick them to win this game because I think they are much more talented than the Bears at virtually every position. If the Vikings defense can't sack and intercept Jay Cutler, than things may indeed be hopeless the rest of the season.
– Buccaneers over Panthers: This is my eliminator selection of the week. Tampa Bay is rapidly starting to show they may not be a fluke after all. They came very close to stunning the Falcons in Atlanta last week, and we just saw that same Falcons club prevail against Baltimore last night. They are quietly running the ball with reasonable effectiveness and are also displaying good defense and special teams play. My main reason this is the eliminator is because I think Carolina might well be the worst team in football, especially if DeAngelo Williams continues to be out of the lineup due to injury. Jimmy Clausen is back under center, and the poor rookie still doesn't seem to get it. I really feel sorry for Steve Smith, who has to be frustrated that no one on the roster is remotely capable of getting him the ball.
– Cardinals over Seahawks: This is an extremely boring matchup. Both teams will have poor quarterback play, a lackluster running game, and a subpar defense on display. I pick to Arizona to win on a gut selection, but I really don't know as both teams are bad. Let's just move on.
– Rams over 49ers: I know the 49ers got the monkey of their back and a got a win before the bye, but something still doesn't seem right with Mike Singletary's crew. I'll be curious to see if Troy Smith can keep up the surprising play he showed in London, and I'll also be interested to see how the defense plays against a Rams offense that has been surprisingly effective as the season has progressed. Sam Bradford has to be considered one of the best rookie prospects in the last five years, and the running game continues to hum along with Steven Jackson. Call it a hunch, but I think St. Louis steals this one on the road.
– Steelers over Patriots: The Sunday night offering should be a dandy, with two of the best teams squaring off. Both however are coming off losses in their most recent game, so one of them will have a losing streak by the end of the night. I think these two teams are so similar on paper in virtually every aspect that it's tough to isolate a factor that will be the difference in the game. I think the Steelers run the ball slightly better than New England, and I also like the physicality of their defense. I think since the game is at Heinz Field, that gives Pittsburgh a slight advantage, but this game may not be decided by much more than a field goal.
– Eagles over Redskins: Talk about two teams moving in opposite directions. The Eagles looked very impressive in their win over the Colts last week, and as long as Michael Vick continues to play like a legitimate MVP candidate they will be very tough to beat. The presence of DeSean Jackson also really helps their offense. The Redskins on the other hand are coming off a bad loss to the Lions, made even worse by Mike Shanahan's boneheaded decision to insert Rex Grossman under center at the end of the game. How anyone could think Rex Grossman is a better option than the ball boy, let alone Donovan McNabb, is beyond me. Reports indicate that Shanahan may have caused a division in the locker room with that move. If true, Redskins fans should start to expect more losses in the near future.
Posted in football | Tagged: National Football League, NFL, NFL picks, sports | 1 Comment »
Week 8 Picks
Evidently last week's quickie selections provided better results. I nailed two major upsets (Jacksonville and Green Bay), and I'm still alive in my eliminator pool. Let's keep it rolling:
– Bills over Bears: Upset Alert. This does give me pause because the Bills are stupidly moving their home game to Toronto, which means there could be more Bears fans in the seats. The Bills are winless in Toronto home games, but they have played really hard the last two games and nearly pulled upsets. I think they take advantage of Jay Cutler and sneak away with this one.
– Ravens over Dolphins: Miami's streak of undefeated play on the road should come to an end here. Baltimore has had a bye week to rest up, and I think their defense will want to rebound from the horrible effort against Buffalo. I still think the Ravens are the best team in the NFL, and they will prove it on Sunday.
– Patriots over Browns: I almost went with the upset here but ultimately proved gun shy. The Browns have played surprisingly well with Colt McCoy under center, and after they won in the Superdome two weeks ago I'm not going to put anything past them. Still, Tom Brady doesn't generally lose games he's supposed to win. I think this will be very close, but I think the Pats will take it.
– Lions over Jets: Major Upset Alert. For whatever reason, the Lions are very tough to slow down at home. Especially with Matthew Stafford back, the offense has plenty of weapons to score lots of points. As for the Jets, I'm still not buying the hype (after all my dreadful Broncos would have beaten them if not for a questionable call), especially after they got shut out on their own field last week. Call this one a hunch.
– Texans over Chargers: This should be a very entertaining game, and for me this was the toughest to pick. The Chargers' offense has looked a lot more like its old self recently, but I think this will be a desperate game for Houston. The Texans must win home games like this if they aspire to be a playoff team. I think this will be a shootout, and I like Andre Johnson to make a big play late.
– Colts over Eagles: This is also a very tough pick. The Eagles will have a huge home crowd behind them, Michael Vick is back under center, DeSean Jackson should be back, so why am I picking Indy? Peyton Manning. I've just seen too many Colts road games where they struggle early, the home team has a real chance to beat them, and Manning pulls a rabbit out of his hat for the win. I sense a similar such game unfolding on Sunday.
– Chiefs over Raiders: Who would have thought this would be an AFC West showdown? I think both offenses will be able to move the ball well in this game, especially the Chiefs, who have seemed to find some harmony between Thomas Jones and Jamaal Charles. Darren McFadden will also get his yards for the Raiders, but if Zach Miller is still hobbled it could really hurt their passing game. I think Kansas City pulls this out on the road and starts to put their stamp on the division.
– Giants over Seahawks: The Giants have quietly put one of the NFC's best records together. Their running game is outstanding and their defense hasn't broke yet. The Seahawks are starting Charlie Whitehurst at quarterback. This could get ugly in a hurry. Even though they're on the road, I'm taking the G-men in a blowout.
– Vikings over Cardinals: The Randy Moss saga proves just how messed up things are in Minnesota. Even if Brett Favre manages to stay upright all year, the defense needs to shore up its gaping holes fast if they want to get back in the race. Fortunately for them, they get a home game against one of the league's struggling teams this week. Minnesota may not be good right now, but Arizona is worse.
– Falcons over Buccaneers: Tampa Bay has to rank as one of the league's biggest surprises at 5-2. This game will tell us a lot about whether that record is a mirage or if we have a surprise playoff threat on our hands. The Falcons have one of the league's most dynamic offenses, and they'll need to solve what has been one of the best defenses in this one. I think Roddy White will have another big day and that will be enough to give Atlanta the win.
– Saints over Panthers: This is my eliminator selection for this week. New Orleans looked like they were back last week, especially defensively, in an impressive win over the Steelers. The schedule is shaping nicely for the defending champs, who get their bye following this one. Carolina is frankly not very good, regardless of who is under center. This week it will be Matt Moore who gets to struggle again.
– Packers over Cowboys: The Sunday night game looked good on paper before the season started. Now it won't be much more than a blowout win for the host Packers. Dallas is in big trouble, partially because the offense is worse with Jon Kitna at quarterback, but mostly because the defense is embarrassingly bad. That means that this week is a chance for Aaron Rogers and the Green Bay offense to have a rebound week and to get some confidence back.
– Steelers over Bengals: This is a rivalry that has been really one sided most of the time. Cincinnati managed to break through with a win last year, but this year's Bengals don't have a lot going for them. Terrell Owens is putting up monster numbers, but he's the only one. I think the odds of Pittsburgh losing two games in a row are less than none, so I pick them for that reason alone. The fact that it's against their big rival could make this a blowout and horrible fourth quarter ratings for ESPN.
Posted in football | Tagged: National Football League, NFL, NFL picks | Leave a Comment »
Bad Football in London
Photo by Ian Walton/Getty Images
I know I'm in the minority on this, but I think the NFL London game is just a really bad idea. I think it's absolutely unfair to team giving up the home game, and I just think it's a real distraction for both teams. Road trips in the NFL are hard enough without adding several thousand miles to them, not to mention jet lag. If the NFL wants to play preseason games overseas, fine, no problem, but I think it's too much to ask teams to fly to England in the middle of October to play a regular season game, even if they do get the bye week after to recover. Of course it's inevitable the games will continue. Every game over there has gotten huge crowds, and Roger Goodell is strongly considering playing more than one game a season in England. What I can't believe is that the league would be foolish enough to put a franchise in London. The travel just wouldn't make any sense for anyone. The bottom line is the league needs to do a better job taking care of its fans at home, particularly with a lockout looming and frequent non-sellouts around the league.
I do think the 49ers handled the situation much better than the Broncos. San Francisco flew out immediately after their loss to Carolina. They had a full week to acclimate and get adjusted. The Broncos waited until Thursday afternoon to leave Denver, asking players to sleep on the plane Thursday night, and not arriving in London until Friday morning. I've never traveled overseas, but everyone I've talked to who has says you need to several days to get used to the new surroundings. I had one person tell me the third day is always the worst. The Broncos' third day in England was game day.
Perhaps the fatigue of travel was one reason the entire first half was frankly a display of bad, boring football by both teams. The 49ers' offense looked lost most of the half with Troy Smith under center, and wasn't helped when star tight end Vernon Davis left the game due to injury. The Broncos offense was even worse, settling for a punt in each of their five first half possessions. I'm sure NFL didn't have a 3-0 halftime score in mind when they picked this matchup to export to London.
Now that we got that out of the way, I want to make it clear I am by no means using this as an excuse for the Broncos' loss. For starters, the Broncos had two touchdowns wiped out by penalty. The first one was a chop block called on Knowshon Moreno that ruined a perfect flea flicker touchdown to Jabar Gaffney. The second was a block in the back that nullified an Eddie Royal punt return TD. I can't honestly say that I have an issue with either call, although Moreno didn't have any intent whatsoever to chop block. Unfortunately, intent isn't part of the rule, and the officials did call it correctly. This is a reflection of something that has plagued the Broncos all year: bad mistakes at critical moments in games. The Gaffney TD would have given Denver a 14-3 lead. Instead, they ended up settling for a field goal. San Francisco went on to score a touchdown and tie the game on the ensuing drive, completely seizing any momentum that the Broncos would have had.
The Broncos also shot themselves in the foot on other occasions. A Kyle Orton fumble in the fourth quarter led to a short field for the 49ers and what proved to be the winning touchdown. A missed extra point by Matt Prater didn't help matters when the Broncos were trying to mount their comeback in the fourth quarter. Once again the Broncos were unable to get their running game going. Moreno led the way with just 40 yards on 11 carries. The Broncos ran the ball only 17 times compared to 40 pass attempts. That kind of ratio is never a good idea for success. The 49ers on the other hand continued to hand off to Frank Gore, and it paid off for 118 yards and a touchdown. Orton ended up throwing for 369 yards for the Broncos, but in the end the lack of a running game proved to be fatal again.
The Broncos are now 2-6 at the bye week, the worst they've been at the halfway point since the dreadful 1999 season, which happened to be the first year post-Elway. The Broncos ended that year 6-10, but they will really have to pick up the pace to even hit that mark this season. During the bye week the top priority has to be figuring out the running game. I'm not going to put all the blame on the backs, for the offensive line has been mediocre at best all year as well. Without a running game, it really doesn't matter what kind of passing numbers Kyle Orton puts up. The defense has actually been ok most of the season, the Raiders game notwithstanding. Josh McDaniels' job is safe for now, but that could depend on whether or not the Broncos are a much better team in the second half of the season than they were in the first.
Posted by mizzou1028 on October 29, 2010
Ouch last week was dreadful in more ways than one. The Broncos suffered the worst loss in their history and my picks weren't much better. Somehow, I'm still alive in my eliminator pool (and benefited greatly from everyone who went with the Saints last week – I took the Chiefs and it paid off). This week really snuck up on me thanks to my birthday and a CU road trip to Oklahoma. Maybe faster, quicker selections will improve my record. Here we go:
– Chiefs over Bills: Arrowhead has become a tough home field advantage again. Kansas City is running better than any team in football. Buffalo can't win in an atmosphere like this.
– Dolphins over Bengals: Miami has to win a home game sooner or later (the Dolphins are undefeated on the road and winless at home). Cincinnati still is a soap opera.
– Patriots over Vikings: My eliminator selection of the week. It doesn't matter if it's Brett Favre or Tarvaris Jackson. Either way, the Patriots are tough at home and the VIkings look really lost, especially defensively.
– Packers over Jets: Upset alert. I still think the Packers have the tools to make a deep playoff run if they play to their capability. Call this one a hunch. Perhaps I also think the Jets are a tad overrated.
– Jaguars over Cowboys: Major upset alert. Call this one a hunch too. David Garrard is back, while Jon Kitna starts for Dallas. I think Maurice Jones-Drew scores at least two touchdowns. Wade Phillips might get fired.
– Titans over Chargers: Mini upset alert. Chris Johnson will have a big day. Philip Rivers will too, but Tennessee's defense is among the best in the league. I think Jeff Fisher's crew steals this one.
– Broncos over 49ers: The NFL is sending its dud game of the week to London. Oops. Brian Dawkins' return will help slow down Frank Gore, and I think the Broncos will want to show they aren't as bad as the Raiders loss might indicate.
– Raiders over Seahawks: I still don't know what to make of Seattle, and after last week, the Raiders might actually have enough offense to win games like this at home.
– Lions over Redskins: Upset alert (hey I'm under .500, I might as well take some chances). I think this will be shootout. I also think the Redskins were fortunate to win last week (they can thank Jay Cutler for throwing it to them). The Lions have the ability to score lots of points at home. I think they'll get a few more than the Redskins.
– Rams over Panthers: Steven Jackson says he's healthy enough to play. That's good enough for me. Besides, how can anyone back Carolina on the road?
– Cardinals over Buccaneers: Two bad teams go at it. It's in Arizona so I take the home team. Sometimes this isn't an exact science.
– Steelers over Saints: Something is clearly not right with the Saints. Pittsburgh may be the NFL's best team top to bottom right now. Good luck Drew Brees, even at home.
– Colts over Texans: Peyton Manning won't let the Colts get swept by a division opponent. His programming doesn't allow it.
Worst. Loss. Ever.
Photo by Jack Dempsey, Associated Press
Broncos fans deserve better than this. The headline is not an exaggeration. This has to rank as the worst loss the Denver Broncos have ever had. 59-14? At home? Against your division rival? Against a team that came in 2-4? A team that scored nine measly points last week against the previously winless 49ers? Sure, the Broncos have had some doozies over the years (the playoff losses to the Colts and the disastrous Super Bowls of the 80s come to mind), every team has, but this was catastrophic. The Broncos gave up 59 points THROUGH THREE QUARTERS. They were down 38-0 with 7:58 remaining in the FIRST HALF. Some other numbers that tell the story:
– The 59 points represent both the most points scored in Raiders history and the most points allowed in Broncos history.
– The Broncos allowed a staggering 508 yards of total offense, including 328 on the ground.
– Darren McFadden rushed for 165 yards and three touchdowns, which is bad enough. He averaged 10.3 yards a carry. Think about that. That means he was on average getting a first down every time he touched the ball.
That's just the tip of the iceberg. This thing was an avalanche coming down the mountain from the word go. A 43 yard touchdown pass to Zach Miller. A 30 yard interception return by Chris Johnson on Denver's first play from scrimmage. A fumble by Demariyus Thomas on Denver's second play from scrimmage. One thing led to another before anyone could blink the game was over before it began. Watching this game, it was easy to Denver's confidence deflate. There was no emotion on the sideline from anyone, coach or player. What we ended up with was a rivalry game where one team didn't hold up their end of the bargain.
My biggest question is how does something like this even happen? NFL defenses don't give up 59 points in three quarters of play, they just don't. If this were a high school game a running clock would have been instituted. The Raiders pulled their starters after three quarters, otherwise I'm pretty sure they could have taken a good stab at the NFL record of 73 points (Chicago Bears – 1940 NFL Championship). This brings up a side question: WHY did the Broncos leave their starters in the entire game? This made zero sense considering risk of injury in a meaningless situation by the fourth quarter. Despite leaving starters in, the Broncos gave up an embarrassing amount of points to a team that's not even good. The Raiders are under .500. They are not considered to be a contender in any way. This a game where if the Broncos had given the same effort they did last week against the Jets, they would have won, perhaps handily.
This game reflects a big problem for the Denver Broncos. Since starting 6-0 last year, the Broncos are a pathetic 4-13. What we saw today was a lack of preparation, lack of intensity, lack of attention to detail, and pretty much a lack of anything. For the Broncos to come out at home against a division rival, in a game they had to have, and give that kind of embarrassing performance, it has to speak to larger problem at hand. I have been a defender of Josh McDaniels (one of the few), but even I can't find any way to justify this. I'm not sure if the large problem at hand is a personnel issue, play calling issue, weekly preparation issue or something else. All I know is Broncos fans expect and deserve better than this.
This performance was so bad that I would have shut the game off in the second quarter if I wasn't getting paid to watch it. It would have marked the first time in my life I would have turned the Broncos off by choice. I have sat through blowouts and bad losses, some of them in person, and have never left the stadium early or shut off the television, no matter how bad it got. I remember sitting in the south stands at old Mile High Stadium with my dad in 1994, watching a similar contest that the Broncos lost to the Raiders 48-16. In that game the Broncos wore throwback uniforms from the mid-60s and played at a level matching the 60s Broncos. Today the Broncos managed the same feat without the 60s attire. Wade Phillips was the head coach that day in 1994. The fans threw things at him as he left the field after the game. He was fired at the end of the season, having lasted just two years. To my knowledge no one threw anything at Josh McDaniels today, but with the Broncos at 2-5, we might see another Broncos coach canned after two seasons if this doesn't turn around. I've been behind him since he's been here, but this is unacceptable. The honeymoon period is officially over Josh. You need to fix this. Now. I don't care how, just fix it. Broncos fans deserve better than this.
Posted in football | Tagged: Denver Broncos, National Football League, NFL, sports | 2 Comments »


Closing the gender pay gap is not a straightforward task, and it is going to take a collaborative effort to make a real difference.
We are certainly right to think about the ways that businesses can close this gap.
But we are also right to think about how businesses can be supported to close the gap.
On Thursday, the Government Equalities Office released new guidance that will enable organisations to diagnose why they have a gender pay gap, and what they can do to develop an effective action plan to close it.
This is all part of our aim to support employers – it seems simple, but having a document in front of you, helping you understand your own gender pay gap and what you need to do to close it, can help kick start a business into action.
Over the last two years we have learnt about the different ways we can reduce the gap, from being transparent with promotion and pay, to incorporating structured interviews and skills-based assessment tasks in recruitment.
This work has clearly demonstrated that there are tangible, easy solutions which employers can take to end this inequality. For those that need an extra incentive, we published the 'What Works?' guide last August which provides a user-friendly summary of how actions are likely to have a positive effect to reduce the gender pay gap.
The guidance published last week by the Government Equalities Office supplements this work and will help us give employers more support and direction to develop effective action plans.
Our new advice and research can help educate employers and really focus the minds of senior leadership on why the gap may occur in the first place.
More than two third of companies see closing the gap as a priority.
Discussions are being held at board level to discuss their gender pay gap.
Employers understanding of the gender pay gap is the highest since the introduction of the legislation.
Last year this Government lead the way in encouraging employers report their gender pay gap and 100% of employers in scope of the requirements reported their stats. Now it's time for employers to take decisive action to actually close those gaps.
We know that closing the gender pay gap will take time and we are looking forward to seeing how companies continue to progress as this year's reporting deadline fast approaches.


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-JOHN THE BAPTIST The Voice In The Wilderness
Posted on October 11, 2012 in Uncategorized
JOHN THE BAPTIST The Voice In The Wilderness
The words of the Lord Jesus, recorded in Matthew 11:11, are truly amazing: "Verily, I say unto you, among them that are born of women there hath not risen a greater than John the Baptist." What a commendation! This was the verdict of the Son of God. Child Of Destiny John was certainly a child of destiny. Luke is the only gospel writer to describe his birth. As a doctor, Luke would have been interested in this because John's birth was something of a miracle. Early in the first chapter, Luke presents to his readers two elderly, godly people who "had no child" and for whom it was too late to expect one (Lk. 1:7). Zechariah was a priest in the temple at Jerusalem, and while he was going about his daily tasks an angel appeared with the wonderful news that the prayers he and his wife had offered had been heard. A child would be born and was to be given the name John. His birth would bring great joy to his parents, and many others would rejoice in it. The child to be born would "be great in the sight of the Lord." He was to abstain from alcohol, and he would be filled with the Holy Spirit from his conception (Lk. 1:15). He would be a remarkable child. Zechariah found all this too hard to believe, and as a consequence was left speechless until the baby was born. However, when he wrote the words, "his name is John" some nine months later, his tongue was freed and he was able to speak and to praise God (Lk. 1:63-64). People were amazed and asked one another, "What manner of child shall this be?" (Lk. 1:66 KJV). Truly he was destined for greatness.
In his message to Zechariah, the angel Gabriel announced that John would go before the Lord in the spirit and power of Elijah (Lk. 1:17). Four hundred years earlier Malachi had written of a messenger being sent who would prepare
the way of the Lord and also of "Elijah the prophet" appearing on the scene (Mal. 3:1; 4:5). As we shall see, Malachi's prophecies were partly fulfilled in the arrival of John the Baptist.
Hidden, Then Revealed
After his birth John was hidden from public view and was "in the deserts till the day of his showing unto Israel" (Lk. 1:80). Was he therefore something of a forgotten figure? Hardly, for about 30 years later the veil was drawn aside and John appeared on the public stage "preaching in the wilderness of Judea" (Mt. 3:1). His message was one of repentance and it was hardhitting. But there must have been something striking and perhaps sensational about him for multitudes came out to hear him. He was roughly dressed in simple clothing and had the appearance of a poor man – both in how he dressed and what he ate. He was not a soft-spoken figure dressed in the fashionable attire of a courtier (Mt. 11:8).
The remarkable thing about this man was that he was filled with the Spirit of God and was fearless in his preaching. Many confessed their sins and were baptized by him in the Jordan river (Mt. 3:5- 6). He was scathing in his denunciation of hypocrisy and demanded the highest standards of those who showed any interest in his message (Mt. 3:7-10). However, there was something else about him that was quite remarkable.
Just A Voice!
People were intrigued by this man. Who was he? From Jerusalem, the religious leaders sent a delegation to ask John about his identity. They thought he resembled what they knew of Elijah, but John would not be flattered. Moses had spoken of a coming "prophet" (Dt. 18:15); could this be him, in the person of John the Baptist? Again John refuted the idea. As they repeatedly questioned him, the answer he finally gave was, "I am the voice of one crying in the wilderness" (Jn. 1:19-23). John saw himself simply as a voice. He knew that he was to fulfill the prophecy of Isaiah 40:3-5 uttered some 700 years before. A voice cannot be seen; it can only be heard. John did not want people to take any notice of him. He was simply a signpost, preparing the way for the Lord.
One day a different Person approached John. It was Jesus who had been born just a few months after him. At once John pointed Him out to his listeners and said, "Behold the Lamb of God, which taketh away the sin of the world" (Jn. 1:29). This was the moment John had been waiting for. The promised Christ who was to lay down His life as the final sacrifice for lost and guilty sinners had come. John's work would soon be over. Unwillingly (because he felt unworthy) he baptized Jesus in the river Jordan. As Jesus emerged from the water, John saw the Holy Spirit descend as a dove upon Him and heard the voice of God the Father from heaven (Mt. 3:13-17). What more evidence was needed? Encouraged, John continued preaching his unchanging message. Looking upon Jesus he said, "Behold, the Lamb of God!" (Jn. 1:36).
As far as John's ministry was concerned, it had reached its zenith. He had never sought publicity, but gradually he began to fade from the scene. His own disciples left him and "followed Jesus" (Jn. 1:37). Soon Jesus and His disciples were baptizing more people than John had baptized (Jn. 4:1). Although he had taught his disciples to pray, the prayer that Jesus taught became much better known than John's (Lk. 11:1). did John have any regrets because he had been overshadowed or his ministry had been eclipsed? Far from it! When questioned by the Jews, he described Jesus as "the bridegroom" and himself as "the bridegroom's friend." The stage belonged to the Bridegroom, not the friend. His joy was in hearing the Bridegroom's voice, not his own. As he considered his own role and compared it with the work of the Lord Jesus, John declared, "He must increase, but I must decrease" (Jn. 3:30). What a great motto for a servant!
The time came when John's voice was silenced. king Herod felt that John had gone too far. John was passionately righteous and not afraid to rebuke Herod for his adultery. The guilty king at once arrested John and had him imprisoned. Yet, although chastened by what he had heard, he still feared John and felt strangely drawn to listen to him (Mk. 6:18-20). From the silence of his cell, doubts seemed to surface in John's mind. He sent messengers to Jesus to ask if He really was the promised Christ or not. The Lord did not rebuke John for any doubts he may have had but returned an answer and warmly commended him in front of His listeners (Mt. 11:2-11). Nobody could be singled out as "greater" than this man.
However, John's days were numbered. The wicked Herodias (whom Herod had taken as his own) had an intense hatred for John the Baptist, and when Herod thoughtlessly told her she could request whatever she wanted, she knew her moment had come. Her request for "the head of John the Baptist" saddened Herod, but there was no escaping from the promise he had made. John was beheaded in the prison and his head unceremoniously brought out to Herodias' daughter who had entertained them with her seductive dance (Mk. 6:18-28). The headless corpse was taken by the disciples and given a decent burial (Mk. 6:29). Was this the end? Can anything follow what seems to be such an untimely ending?
There are many lessons that we can learn from the life of John the Baptist, but only one final reference will be considered. There came a time when the Lord was sought by His enemies, "but He escaped out of their hand, and went away again beyond Jordan into the place where John at first baptized" (Jn. 10:39-40). Many came out into the wilderness seeking the Lord Jesus, and it is interesting to hear what they said: "John did no miracle: but all things that John spake of this Man were true" (Jn. 10:41).
John the Baptist was not forgotten. Although his voice had been silenced in death, memories of him remained. He had performed no miracles; his ministry had lacked that which authenticated the preaching of others. Yet nothing could be finer than to hear that all John said of the Lord Jesus was true. His testimony, even after death, was still effective in leading sinners to Christ (Jn. 10:42).
John could be remembered as a prophet of truth—righteous and yet humble, fearless and yet selfeffacing. Servants of God today could not do better than adopt John's motto when considering Christ, our Master: "He must increase, but I must decrease." Like John, we need to be filled with the Holy Spirit. Like him we need boldness to proclaim the gospel message. Like him we must reveal our Master to others, not seek to be seen ourselves. John the Baptist's desire was that Christ always should be magnified: "He must increase, but I must decrease" (Jn. 3:30). May God give us the grace to be like him.
By Martin Girard

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


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Home NEWS Irish rail bans alcohol on Dublin to Galway trains next Monday
Irish rail bans alcohol on Dublin to Galway trains next Monday
Irish Rail is banning alcohol on a number of trains from Heuston to Galway and Westport next Monday.
Passengers are being advised that Irish Rail will not allow people to board the trains with alcohol, nor will it be served on the onboard trolley.
The ban is being put in place as large numbers of people are expected to be returning from the Longitude music festival in Marlay Park which ends this Sunday.
In total five services in the late morning and early afternoon will be affected by the ban.
From Heston to Galway it covers the 11:25, 13:25, and 15:35 trains.
And for passengers headed to Westport the ban will be in place for the 12:15 and 14:45 services.
Heuston


Also my 500th post Yippeee!
I'm in ... where do I order? Can we use our own provided logo or is this like 2 lines of text?
Alex,Don, I ordered them thru Viking offic products. They furnished all the art work and all I had to do was tell then the size of the letters and the color I wanted.
Coffee cups are a very important tool! One can never have enough of them.
Now that is a perk I can use. I drink a lot of coffee.


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Ajia Clark has a gorgeous voice with a clear pitch and resonance
Jeena Johnson October 19, 2015
Ajia Clark is a Singer-Songwriter from Colorado who decided in 2007 after being a backup singer to embark on a solo singing career. Although her roots are firmly placed in Rhythm and Blues, she draws inspiration from many different musical influences such as; Etta James, Jill Scott, Tina Turner, Nina Simone, Anita Baker, and Lauryn Hill.
Aija Clark
"Having grown up in a musical family with all those different genres it influenced the Singer-Songwriter I am today," says Ajia, "I started becoming more and more involved in the live music scene through friends who are some of the most phenomenally talented musicians that currently perform in and around Nashville. All of a sudden, people started asking "Who's the new girl with the old school sound?"
Ajia is busy writing and recording her highly anticipated album "Finally Ajia", from which we heard three tracks, called "Ooo La La", "What Am I To Do" and "Soul Train". Somewhere between R&B, Soul and Jazz, Ajia Clark has a gorgeous voice with a clear pitch and resonance. It's amazing when you listen to an artist that will make you believe in the power of music that will make you realize that there are still artists out there with vision and integrity. The music speaks for itself loud and clear.
The track "Ooo La La" alone, will woo you in the most incredible way. When Ajia sings, it is like she is telling a story through a gentle lullaby. Her voice has a luminosity to it that many other singers do not have. It has a strong, full-bodied sound and her style and method of singing is mature, while not forgetting both her uplifting strength as well as a vast range of emotional sensitivity. Including the sensuality she forges on "Ooo La La."
The arrangements of Ajia's songs are well done, providing variety as well as consistency to support and complement the fantastic dynamic range of her vocals. This is most evident on the jazzy spaciousness of "Soul Train" and the soulful rhythms of "What Am I To Do". Her voice lifts you up, then lays you down and covers you in sweetness!
Ajia Clark takes you to that place where passion runs free and emotions are meant to unfurl and blossom. She is a warm hug on a cold lonely day…
OFFICIAL LINKS: ITUNES – YOUTUBE – INSTAGRAM – TWITTER – FACEBOOK
Bruce Nowlin releases debut album titled "THIS LIFE"
Saint Denson: "Bahd Mahn" Ft. Widda Wop & Carhyme – Fusing Caribbean tones with a dark urban-edged Hip Hop


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jan paclt
two flights of stairs
design-production
janpacltco 12th April 2021 9th December 2022
An exterior staircase accesses two separate apartments located in the upper floors of this family house.
Straight-forward process from design to production enabled precise adjustments of the new structure to the existing one. Most of the parts were laser-cut, then all pre-assembled and coated off-site. When the two flights of stairs were positioned on dedicated brackets they were joined into one.
spatial intervention
2023 jan paclt


Welcome to Granville Chapel's online communication hub!
Church Community Builder (CCB) serves church community resource in addition to our website that enables our leadership and is a great way you can get plugged into our church community!
If you would like to sign up for a CCB account please click on the button below. After signing up, you will receive an activation link on your email within 1-2 business days.


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William Whitfield Hyman – State Senate District 8
hyman@arkansaslawking.com
About William Whitfield Hyman
W. Whitfield Hyman, 32, said he is running to "increase government accountability to the people," "clean up the criminal and traffic code," and "help low-income people become financially independent."
Hyman, a 2013 graduate of the University of Arkansas School of Law, earned his bachelor's degree in economics from the University of Central Arkansas in 2008. In June 2017 he sued the city of Fort Smith for its "indiscriminate and unnecessary" use of recycling trucks at about $53,000 a month to dump most of the city's recyclables in the landfill since mid-October 2014 without the public's knowledge. The complaint filed in the Sebastian County Circuit Court proposes a class-action suit based on "misuse of public funds."
"I'm running to increase government accountability to the people," Hyman wrote in an email. "That's why I'm suing the city of Fort Smith over their mishandling of our recycling ... I'm also looking to help low income people become financially independent. Arkansas is the second worst state in the union when it comes to burdensome occupational licensing. I don't think you should have to have a license to be a florist or a painter."
[From the Southwest Times Record: LINK]


Love it or hate, Marcel Duchamp's mustachioed Mona Lisa and porcelain urinal left a lasting impression on the art world. To examine Duchamp's influence on Pop Art, the Norton Simon Museum is featuring works from the artist alongside 20th century successors like Andy Warhol and Ed Ruscha. In addition to the 40 or so pieces of art on display, the museum will also showcase materials from the archives of the Pasadena Art Museum (which later became the Norton Simon Museum) that pertain to two seminal exhibitions there—New Painting of Common Objects from 1962 and Marcel Duchamp Retrospective from 1963.


Located at Memorial and Scenic Drives, this park features a bathhouse, day-use parking, a large campground in the forested dunes, the historic Block House and the Muskegon Winter Sports Complex. There are over two miles of Lake Michigan shoreline and a mile on Muskegon Lake. Features include a playground, a beach house where swimmers can change, fishing piers along the channel walkway and at Snug Harbor, twelve miles of marked hiking trails that meander through a variety of landscapes and a boat launch with fish cleaning station. For more information on Muskegon State Park and Beach, contact the Michigan DNR at 231-744-3480.
This 728 acre day-use park stretches from the northern shore of Duck Lake to Lake Michigan and features a towering sand dune. There's a beautiful, sandy beach on Duck Lake with a boardwalk that provides access to Lake Michigan. Duck Lake Channel empties into Lake Michigan and is a favorite among families with small children, providing warm, shallow water that's perfect for toddlers. A wooded area shades the picnic grounds with fire pits and grills. A paved path provides a pleasant stroll through the woods and along the Duck Lake shoreline. For more information on Duck Lake State Park, call the Michigan Department of Natural Resources at 231-744-3480.
With a length of one mile and breathtaking views of large sand dunes and Lake Michigan, Norman F. Kruse Park allows pets and their parents to roam freely on its white sugar-sand "Dog Beach" and splash in Muskegon's beautiful blue waters. This 52.3 acre park features two parking lots, nature trails, barrier dunes, accessible dune walkways, a playground, dune overlooks, four picnic shelters, restrooms, and a basketball court. For information on the Kruse Park Dog Beach, call the City of Muskegon Parks at 231-724-6707.
This 27.5 acre park is home to Muskegon's public beach, offering a large expanse of sugar-sand Lake Michigan shoreline. It's bordered on the north by the Muskegon Channel, home of the USS Silversides Submarine Museum. Facilities include fishing piers, a snack bar, two playgrounds, restrooms, a picnic area, forty volleyball courts and a 200 ft. handicap accessible walkway. Construction will begin this spring on a beach restaurant and bar. Pere Marquette Beach is part of the clean beach council, featuring beautiful sunsets, dune grass, and a lighthouse on the South Channel arm. For information on Pere Marquette Park and Beach, call 231-724-6707.
This beautiful park features forest covered dunes along nearly three miles of Lake Michigan's white, sandy shore. A beach house provides swimmers with a changing room, and the picnic area has sheltered tables, along with fire pits and grills. There are 10 miles of trails, a Dune Climb Stairway leading to the top of a high sand dune with an observation deck offering a panoramic view of the dunes and Lake Michigan. A focal point of the park is the Gillette Visitor Center which faces a towering sand dune, and offers a variety of programs to help visitors enjoy and understand the unique environment of the sand dunes of the Great Lakes. For more information on P.J. Hoffmaster State Park and Beach, contact the Michigan DNR at 231-798-3711.


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In mathematics, Kostant's convexity theorem, introduced by ,  states that the projection of every coadjoint orbit of a connected compact Lie group into the dual of a Cartan subalgebra is a convex set. It is a special case of a more general result for symmetric spaces. Kostant's theorem is a generalization of a result of ,  and  for hermitian matrices. They proved that the projection onto the diagonal matrices of the space of all n by n complex self-adjoint matrices with given eigenvalues Λ = (λ1, ..., λn) is the convex polytope with vertices all permutations of the coordinates of Λ.

Kostant used this to generalize the Golden–Thompson inequality to all compact groups.

Compact Lie groups
Let K be a connected compact Lie group with maximal torus T and Weyl group W = NK(T)/T. Let their Lie algebras be  and . Let P be the orthogonal projection of  onto  for some Ad-invariant inner product on . Then for X in , P(Ad(K)⋅X) is the convex polytope with vertices w(X) where w runs over the Weyl group.

Symmetric spaces
Let G be a compact Lie group and σ an involution with K a compact subgroup fixed by σ and containing the identity component of the fixed point subgroup of σ. Thus G/K is a symmetric space of compact type. Let   and  be their Lie algebras and let σ also denote the corresponding involution of .  Let  be the −1 eigenspace of σ and let  be a maximal Abelian subspace. Let Q be the orthogonal projection of  onto  for some Ad(K)-invariant inner product on . Then for X in , Q(Ad(K)⋅X) is the convex polytope with vertices the w(X) where w runs over the restricted Weyl group (the normalizer of  in K modulo its centralizer).

The case of a compact Lie group is the special case where G = K × K, K is embedded diagonally and σ is the automorphism of G interchanging the two factors.

Proof for a compact Lie group
Kostant's proof for symmetric spaces is given in . There is an elementary proof just for compact Lie groups using similar ideas, due to : it is based on a generalization of the Jacobi eigenvalue algorithm to compact Lie groups.

Let K be a connected compact Lie group with maximal torus T. For each positive root α there is a homomorphism of SU(2) into K. A simple calculation with 2 by 2 matrices shows that if  Y is in  and k varies in this image of SU(2), then P(Ad(k)⋅Y) traces a straight line between P(Y) and its reflection in the root α.  In particular the component in the α root space—its "α off-diagonal coordinate"—can be sent to 0. In performing this latter operation, the distance from P(Y) to P(Ad(k)⋅Y) is bounded above by size of the α off-diagonal coordinate of Y. Let m be the number of positive roots, half the dimension of K/T. Starting from an arbitrary Y1 take the largest off-diagonal coordinate and send it to zero to get Y2. Continue in this way, to get a sequence (Yn). Then

Thus P⊥(Yn) tends to 0 and

Hence Xn = P(Yn) is a Cauchy sequence, so  tends to X in . Since Yn = P(Yn) ⊕ P⊥(Yn), Yn tends to X. On the other hand, Xn lies on the line segment joining Xn+1 and its reflection in the root α. Thus Xn lies in the Weyl group polytope defined by Xn+1. These convex polytopes are thus increasing as n increases and hence P(Y) lies in the polytope for X. This can be repeated for each Z in the K-orbit of X. The limit is necessarily in the Weyl group orbit of X and hence P(Ad(K)⋅X) is contained in the convex polytope defined by W(X).

To prove the opposite inclusion, take X to be a point in the positive Weyl chamber. Then all the other points Y in the convex hull of W(X) can be obtained by a series of paths in that intersection moving along the negative of a simple root. (This matches a familiar picture from representation theory: if by duality X corresponds to a dominant weight λ, the other weights in the Weyl group polytope defined by λ are those appearing in the irreducible representation of K with highest weight λ. An argument with lowering operators shows that each such weight is linked by a chain to λ obtained by successively subtracting simple roots from λ.) Each part of the path from X to Y can be obtained by the process described above for the copies of SU(2) corresponding to simple roots, so the whole convex polytope lies in P(Ad(K)⋅X).

Other proofs
 gave another proof of the convexity theorem for compact Lie groups, also presented in . For compact groups,  and  showed that if M is a symplectic manifold with a Hamiltonian action of a torus T with Lie algebra , then the image of the moment map

is a convex polytope with vertices in the image of the fixed point set of T (the image is a finite set). Taking for M a coadjoint orbit of K in , the moment map for T is the composition

Using the Ad-invariant inner product to identify  and , the map becomes

the restriction of the orthogonal projection. Taking X in , the fixed points of T in the orbit Ad(K)⋅X are just the orbit under the Weyl group, W(X). So the convexity properties of the moment map imply that the image is the convex polytope with these vertices.  gave a simplified direct version of the proof using moment maps.

 showed that a generalization of the convexity properties of the moment map could be used to treat the more general case of symmetric spaces. Let τ be a smooth involution of M which takes the symplectic form ω to −ω and such that t ∘ τ = τ ∘ t−1. Then M and the fixed point set of τ (assumed to be non-empty) have the same image under the moment map. To apply this, let T = exp , a torus in G. If X is in  as before the moment map yields the projection map

Let τ be the map τ(Y) =  − σ(Y). The map above has the same image as that of the fixed point set of τ, i.e. Ad(K)⋅X. Its image is the convex polytope with vertices the image of the fixed point set of T on Ad(G)⋅X, i.e. the points w(X) for w in W = NK(T)/CK(T).

Further directions
In  the convexity theorem is deduced from a more general convexity theorem concerning the projection onto the  component A in the Iwasawa decomposition G = KAN of a real semisimple Lie group G. The result discussed above for compact Lie groups  K corresponds to the special case when G is the complexification of K: in this case the Lie algebra of A can be identified with . The more general version of Kostant's theorem has also been generalized to semisimple symmetric spaces by .  gave a generalization for infinite-dimensional groups.

Notes

References

Lie groups
Lie algebras
Homogeneous spaces
Mathematical theorems

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaWikipedia


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DVB - The technique behind
Bigger Dish for BBC HD required?
By Derrick, June 3, 2011 in DVB - The technique behind
Derrick 64
The BBC will change on 06-06-2011 the modulation of transponder 10802H on Astra 2D from DVB-S, 5/6 to DVB-S2, QPSK, 8/9. The capacity will be increased by 15% which can be used for better quality (or more channels ).
Currently an Eb/No of 6dB is required for quasi error free reception. After the change this will be slightly increased to 6,2dB. In terms of dish area 0.2dB corresponds to a 5% bigger dish or a 2% increase in diameter. Astra 2D is a spot beam satellite. For GB or areas where only a small dish is required there won't be a noticeable degradation. It could be different in areas with marginal reception (e.g. eastern Germany). A marginal reception of the dvb-s transponder with 120cm could suffer after switching to dvb-s2 cos for the same performance as before a dish with 123cm will be required.
I took the wrong values. On the contrary in this case dvb-s2, qpsk, 8/9 will show a slightly better error performance than dvb-s, 5/6. So don't worry
No problem with my 45 cm dish here (West Germany, North Rhine-Westphalia).
..your area is not concerned. But for marginal reception there could be problems because with a higher symbolrate the carrier to noise ratio will drop.


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Literary Studies: Plays & Playwrights
Shakespeare Studies & Criticism
Macbeth: (Shakespeare in Performance 2nd edition)
Bernice W. Kliman (Author)
This title explores the myriad decisions directors and actors make to produce a version of Shakespeare's play. It's full discussions of eighteen productions from the UK, Italy, Japan and the US empower readers to appreciate the many choices Shakespeare's text supports. -- .
Bernice W. Kliman is Professor Emeritus at Nassau Community College, State University of New York -- .
Contributor: Bernice W. Kliman
Imprint: Manchester University Press
Series: Shakespeare in Performance
Biography: Bernice W. Kliman is Professor Emeritus at Nassau Community College, State University of New York -- .


Today's prompt is to tell you about how I maintain a healthy lifestyle, but I am not going to talk about maintaining a physically healthy lifestyle, but a mentally healthy one and that is by giving myself grace.
"Well, that's better than I used to do."
And so I gave myself grace.
Grace is the knowledge that while I will try to do better at living, I acknowledge that I am imperfect and that is how it should be for nobody is perfect.
Grace is life-changing and life-affirming. It enables one to start over instead of staying stagnant.
Because of sickness, I, unfortunately, missed out on the debate that followed that comment the next day, but when I returned I explained myself. I am not fully recovered and I never will be. However, I am in recovery.
I believe part of being in recovery involves giving myself grace and that means recognizing that I will never be fully recovered. I just don't think that science has developed a pill yet that totally cures mental illness - the messiness of mental illness I will have to deal with forever. I may be in recovery from borderline personality disorder, but I will always have some of the traits. The same for the eating disorder. I will probably always cycle through periods of depression and intense anxiety, as so any person would who has to deal with the intricacies of life. Depression and anxiety are my lot in life, but that does not mean that I am always suffering - I am actually really doing pretty well. Recovery, to me, means admitting I have troubles and yet still continuing to face life on life's terms. It means making mistakes and not beating myself up over them. It means giving myself grace.
I will never be fully recovered because I will always be fully human and humans make mistakes and get sick. Being in recovery means that I use these times as a way to learn and grow instead of as a way to die. I think anyone that would say that they are fully recovered from anything is fooling themselves into thinking they are better than they really are.
I am not recovered, but I am in recovery. I am grateful that I have the grace to appreciate this. May you find that grace too.
Social Skills for Autonomous People - The Power of "I Can't"
It helps a lot to be confident in your ability to judge what you can and can't do. Sometimes you have to say no over and over.


Chrome to begin labeling non-HTTPS websites as "Not secure"
Chrome has approximately 60% of the market share today across desktop and mobile, so sites without HTTPS should rightfully be concerned with how their users will perceive the "Not secure" indicator.
If you currently rely on the entry of text into HTTP-only by your end users you should upgrade to https before Chrome puts this change in place.
EDZNET provides FREE SSL Certificates on all our accounts, ask us if you need assistance in migrating to https.


Kiriyama Akito and Nakama Junta talked about Kame on the Kansai Jr's radio show.
Kiriyama: After we finished filming, we went eating together again and things like that. Mokomichi-kun too… Also, it was my first time working with Kamenashi-kun… how was he?
Nakama: Kamenashi-kun huh~ He was completely different from what I imagined. He talked to us a lot and stuff!
N: I thought that he was a "cool" type who wouldn't talk to us even when we were together, but he was the one to say something to us so I was really happy!
K: Then Junta-kun and Yuuya-kun sent thank you messages [to Kame]... I sent one too! Then the next day, they got replies!
Don't you just love Kiriyama x Kame interactions? xD Sorry, I don't have the audio for this.
OMG Kame really loves bullying Akito ROFL But I bet he only bullies those he really likes/finds interesting XD Thank you for this!


Are Ad Blockers Really That Negative?
We are slowly being overwhelmed by ads. Blogs, social media, websites, videos, mobile sites, apps and more all have the option to display ads, and most take full advantage of this. The more the Internet and digital products progress, the more ads are being displayed. The advertiser in me thinks that progress wouldn't be so significant without the income from those ads though!
Ad Blocking browser add-ons and apps restrict ads from being displayed on your device. Actually, it even takes it a step further by never connecting the dots between the advertiser and the viewer so the ad never even gets the chance to display, so there is not a loss of resources.
Ad Blockers have been around for quite a while but have gained some steam lately in the eyes of the public. This has definitely been helped along by Apple's decision to allow users to change their ad display settings on their mobile device so that they no longer see these (see more here). The fact that this move came from a major player in the mobile device and operating system industry is definitely causing a stir. When it was limited to smaller companies like Ad Blocker and others it wasn't nearly as big of a deal.
Advertisers are running frantic now though and trying to get to the bottom of what this means for, well … their bottom line!
In order to better understand this, it is best to breakdown the exchange of ads and viewers.
Advertiser pays a certain dollar amount for one thousand online and mobile impressions. These ads are displayed to everyone they choose in a certain target segment, including 100 impressions to people that find mobile ads intrusive.
What does this company gain?
They've got their product out in front of 1,000 people (potentially less based on duplicate views but we won't get into that in this example).
Of these 1,000 people, they've just gained some ill-will from 100 people that can't stand mobile ads. So not only did they pay 10% of their budget to serve ads into people that don't want to see them and therefore will probably not even click on them, but they've potentially angered potential customers.
This situation shows that there is actually a lot for advertisers to lose.
Another similar situation, has an advertiser paying the same amount for one thousand online and mobile impressions. These ads are also displayed to everyone in their target market but in this example Ad Blockers exist and active mobile users that are put off by display ads can elect to no longer view them. So, since this advertiser is STILL paying per THOUSAND impressions, they then have the opportunity to show up to 100 more potential customers than in Example 1.
These 100 additional have the potential of reacting more favorably then those 100 that were forced, essentially against their will in the previous example to view an ad.
Now, it is possible that those 100 that were shown ads because others had blocked them from example 2 still may not want to view display ads. With that mentality, the entire 1,000 on the list may not want to; however, they are almost definitely going to react more favorably than the people that have gone out of their way and actively pursued not receiving ads.
Leave those people go and focus on the REST!
All of the mass data that these Ad Exchanges have at their disposal is amazing and it really helps advertisers put their ads in front of the right people, in the right place and at the right time. Cookies literally stock people to make sure they get the ideal ads. Online behavior is translated into browsing patterns which are matched with ads. But that data only goes so far.
For example, viewers can click on Google ads to choose to no longer see ads from that particular advertiser anymore. This benefits advertisers in the same way as Ad Blockers. People have already embraced the former, so why not the latter?
Ad Blocking is really not that gloomy of an internet feature plus it is still very small. Potentially, it could be a problem once it grows for those serving ads in the future (hence the potential spiteful introduction of this to iPhone software).
And, if it ever gets to the point that it envelopes the digital plateau entirely then maybe I'll have to correct this post. But at this time, it is not a problem.
Wow I never thought of this before!! I thought ad blockers were bad for advertisers but now I see how great they can be. Your right, I don't want to pay for my ad to be shown to someone that doesn't want to see it. I only want interested people to see it or its a waste of my money. Great article!!


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Q: Calculating the median of compound events Say I have two independent random variables that occur with two different arbitrary but fixed continuous distributions $D_1$ and $D_2$. I then flip a coin, that occurs heads with probability $p$, to determines if I sample from $D_1$ or $D_2$. How do I calculate the median of this distribution?
If I wanted to calculate the mean, I could use conditional expectation to say: Let $\mu_1$ be the mean of $D_1$, likewise for $\mu_2$ and $D_2$. the expectation for the compound event would then be $p\mu_1 \times (1-p)\mu_2$.
If I compute the median of $D_1$ and $D_2$, can I compute the median of the compound event in a similar manner? I.e. $pm_1 \times (1-p)m_2$?. Does this then generalize to combinations of these compound events?

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


Even if some European and national labor market or social policy programs focused on fostering local economy, the social imperative of social and solidarity economy did not enter the political or academic mainstream. In light of the consequences of neo-liberal globalization, socio-political considerations need to pay much more attention than before to the local living space as a place of active participation and integration, of collective self-organization and sustainable development. Shaping sustainable development raises questions about the logic behind socially integrated economic activity geared to maintaining the capacity for social, cultural, ecological and economic evolution. The ecological imperative of community economy seems to have a stronger effect to eco-social transformation. The strong re-discovery of community-based action research – after three decades of marginalization – is on one side resulting from the challenges of eco-social transformation, and on the other side it is another indicator for the growing weight of civil society as steering power in society, in this case in the scientific realm. It is obvious that eco-social transformation has to be based in processes of cooperative learning and participatory social change.


Jason over at Iwearyourshirt.com came up with a great idea...for each day in 2009 he's wearing a different shirt, taking pictures and video of it and blogging about it! The shirts are also being sold each day at "face value" so today being January 15th makes his stylish Jetty T $15! Hop over to Iwearyourshirt.com and check out Jason's Live Stream at 3pm EST today!