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Uncovering the heterogeneity and temporal complexity of neurodegenerative diseases with Subtype and Stage Inference
The Genetic FTD Initiative (GENFI), The Alzheimer'S Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI)
Radiation Physicists
The heterogeneity of neurodegenerative diseases is a key confound to disease understanding and treatment development, as study cohorts typically include multiple phenotypes on distinct disease trajectories. Here we introduce a machine-learning technique—Subtype and Stage Inference (SuStaIn)—able to uncover data-driven disease phenotypes with distinct temporal progression patterns, from widely available cross-sectional patient studies. Results from imaging studies in two neurodegenerative diseases reveal subgroups and their distinct trajectories of regional neurodegeneration. In genetic frontotemporal dementia, SuStaIn identifies genotypes from imaging alone, validating its ability to identify subtypes; further the technique reveals within-genotype heterogeneity. In Alzheimer's disease, SuStaIn uncovers three subtypes, uniquely characterising their temporal complexity. SuStaIn provides fine-grained patient stratification, which substantially enhances the ability to predict conversion between diagnostic categories over standard models that ignore subtype (p = 7.18 × 10−4) or temporal stage (p = 3.96 × 10−5). SuStaIn offers new promise for enabling disease subtype discovery and precision medicine.
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inference Physics & Astronomy 100%
Heterogeneity Chemical Compounds 83%
Neurodegenerative Diseases Medicine & Life Sciences 78%
Standard Model Chemical Compounds 69%
Frontotemporal Dementia Medicine & Life Sciences 28%
The Genetic FTD Initiative (GENFI), & The Alzheimer'S Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) (2018). Uncovering the heterogeneity and temporal complexity of neurodegenerative diseases with Subtype and Stage Inference. Nature communications, 9(1), [4273]. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-05892-0
Uncovering the heterogeneity and temporal complexity of neurodegenerative diseases with Subtype and Stage Inference. / The Genetic FTD Initiative (GENFI); The Alzheimer'S Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI).
In: Nature communications, Vol. 9, No. 1, 4273, 01.12.2018.
The Genetic FTD Initiative (GENFI) & The Alzheimer'S Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) 2018, 'Uncovering the heterogeneity and temporal complexity of neurodegenerative diseases with Subtype and Stage Inference', Nature communications, vol. 9, no. 1, 4273. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-05892-0
The Genetic FTD Initiative (GENFI), The Alzheimer'S Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI). Uncovering the heterogeneity and temporal complexity of neurodegenerative diseases with Subtype and Stage Inference. Nature communications. 2018 Dec 1;9(1):4273. doi: 10.1038/s41467-018-05892-0
The Genetic FTD Initiative (GENFI) ; The Alzheimer'S Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI). / Uncovering the heterogeneity and temporal complexity of neurodegenerative diseases with Subtype and Stage Inference. In: Nature communications. 2018 ; Vol. 9, No. 1.
@article{383dd47f1dee402aa1122fa2d15c33ee,
title = "Uncovering the heterogeneity and temporal complexity of neurodegenerative diseases with Subtype and Stage Inference",
abstract = "The heterogeneity of neurodegenerative diseases is a key confound to disease understanding and treatment development, as study cohorts typically include multiple phenotypes on distinct disease trajectories. Here we introduce a machine-learning technique—Subtype and Stage Inference (SuStaIn)—able to uncover data-driven disease phenotypes with distinct temporal progression patterns, from widely available cross-sectional patient studies. Results from imaging studies in two neurodegenerative diseases reveal subgroups and their distinct trajectories of regional neurodegeneration. In genetic frontotemporal dementia, SuStaIn identifies genotypes from imaging alone, validating its ability to identify subtypes; further the technique reveals within-genotype heterogeneity. In Alzheimer{\textquoteright}s disease, SuStaIn uncovers three subtypes, uniquely characterising their temporal complexity. SuStaIn provides fine-grained patient stratification, which substantially enhances the ability to predict conversion between diagnostic categories over standard models that ignore subtype (p = 7.18 × 10−4) or temporal stage (p = 3.96 × 10−5). SuStaIn offers new promise for enabling disease subtype discovery and precision medicine.",
author = "{The Genetic FTD Initiative (GENFI)} and {The Alzheimer{\textquoteright}S Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI)} and Young, {Alexandra L.} and Marinescu, {Razvan V.} and Oxtoby, {Neil P.} and Martina Bocchetta and Keir Yong and Firth, {Nicholas C.} and Cash, {David M.} and Thomas, {David L.} and Dick, {Katrina M.} and Jorge Cardoso and {van Swieten}, John and Barbara Borroni and Daniela Galimberti and Mario Masellis and Tartaglia, {Maria Carmela} and Rowe, {James B.} and Caroline Graff and Fabrizio Tagliavini and Frisoni, {Giovanni B.} and Robert Laforce and Elizabeth Finger and {de Mendon{\c c}a}, Alexandre and Sandro Sorbi and Warren, {Jason D.} and Sebastian Crutch and Fox, {Nick C.} and Sebastien Ourselin and Schott, {Jonathan M.} and Rohrer, {Jonathan D.} and Alexander, {Daniel C.} and Christin Andersson and Silvana Archetti and Andrea Arighi and Luisa Benussi and Giuliano Binetti and Sandra Black and Maura Cosseddu and Marie Fallstr{\"o}m and Carlos Ferreira and Chiara Fenoglio and Morris Freedman and Fumagalli, {Giorgio G.} and Rosa Rademakers and Ronald Petersen and Jack, {Clifford R.} and Matthew Bernstein and Prashanthi Vemuri and Kejal Kantarci and David Knopman and Graff-Radford, {Neill R.}",
note = "Funding Information: A.L.Y. is supported by a Doctoral Prize Fellowship from the EPSRC. N.P.O. is supported by the Biomarkers Across Neurodegenerative Diseases programme, which is funded by The Michael J. Fox Foundation for Parkinson{\textquoteright}s Research, the Alzheimer{\textquoteright}s Association, Alzheimer{\textquoteright}s Research UK and the Weston Brain Institute. R.V.M. is supported by the EPSRC Centre For Doctoral Training in Medical Imaging with grant EP/L016478/1. D.L.T. is supported by the UCL Leonard Wolfson Experimental Neurology Centre (PR/ylr/18575). K.D. is supported by an Alzheimer{\textquoteright}s Society PhD Studentship. J.B.R. is supported by the Wellcome Trust (103838). G.G.F. was supported by Associazione Italiana Ricerca Alzheimer ONLUS (AIRAlzh Onlus)-COOP Italia. J.D.W. is supported by the Alzheimer's Society, Alzheimer's Research UK and the NIHR UCLH Biomedical Research Centre. S.C. acknowledges the support of the NIHR Queen Square Dementia BRU, ARUK (ART-SRF2010-3), ESRC/NIHR (ES/L001810/1) and EPSRC (EP/M006093/1). J.M.S. acknowledges the support of the NIHR Queen Square Dementia BRU, the NIHR UCL/H Biomedical Research Centre, Wolfson Foundation, EPSRC (EP/J020990/1), MRC (MR/L023784/1), ARUK (ARUK-Network 2012-6-ICE; ARUK-PG2017-1946; ARUK-PG2017-1946), Brain Research Trust (UCC14191) and European Union{\textquoteright}s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (Grant 666992). J.D.R. is supported by an MRC Clinician Scientist Fellowship (MR/M008525/1) and has received funding from the NIHR Rare Disease Translational Research Collaboration. The Dementia Research Centre is supported by Alzheimer{\textquoteright}s Research UK, Brain Research Trust and The Wolfson Foundation. This work is supported by the NIHR Queen Square Dementia Biomedical Research Unit and the NIHR UCL/H Biomedical Research Centre. This work is supported by EPSRC grants EP/J020990/01 and EP/M020533/1 and the European Union{\textquoteright}s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 666992 (EuroPOND: http://www.europond.eu). This work was also supported by the MRC UK GENFI grant (MR/M023664/1). Data collection and sharing for this project was funded by the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) (National Institutes of Health Grant U01 AG024904) and DOD ADNI (Department of Defense award number W81XWH-12-2-0012). ADNI is funded by the National Institute on Aging, the National Institute of Biomedical Imaging and Bioengineering, and through generous contributions from the following: AbbVie, Alzheimer{\textquoteright}s Association; Alzheimer{\textquoteright}s Drug Discovery Foundation; Araclon Biotech; BioClinica, Inc.; Biogen; Bristol-Myers Squibb Company; CereSpir, Inc.;Cogstate; Eisai Inc.; Elan Pharmaceuticals, Inc.; Eli Lilly and Company; EuroImmun; F. Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd and its affiliated company Genentech, Inc.; Fujirebio; GE Healthcare; IXICO Ltd.; Janssen Alzheimer Immunotherapy Research & Development, LLC.; Johnson & Johnson Pharmaceutical Research & Development LLC.; Lumosity; Lundbeck; Merck & Co., Inc.; Meso Scale Diagnostics, LLC.; NeuroRx Research; Neurotrack Technologies; Novartis Pharmaceuticals Corporation; Pfizer Inc.; Piramal Imaging; Servier; Takeda Pharmaceutical Company; and Transition Therapeutics. The Canadian Institutes of Health Research is providing funds to support ADNI clinical sitesin Canada. Private sector contributions are facilitated by the Foundation for the National Institutes of Health (http://www.fnih.org). The grantee organization is the Northern California Institute for Research and Education, and the study is coordinated by the Alzheimer{\textquoteright}s Therapeutic Research Institute at the University of Southern California. ADNI data are disseminated by the Laboratory for Neuro Imaging at the University of Southern California. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2018, The Author(s).",
T1 - Uncovering the heterogeneity and temporal complexity of neurodegenerative diseases with Subtype and Stage Inference
AU - The Genetic FTD Initiative (GENFI)
AU - The Alzheimer'S Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI)
AU - Young, Alexandra L.
AU - Marinescu, Razvan V.
AU - Oxtoby, Neil P.
AU - Bocchetta, Martina
AU - Yong, Keir
AU - Firth, Nicholas C.
AU - Cash, David M.
AU - Thomas, David L.
AU - Dick, Katrina M.
AU - Cardoso, Jorge
AU - van Swieten, John
AU - Borroni, Barbara
AU - Galimberti, Daniela
AU - Masellis, Mario
AU - Tartaglia, Maria Carmela
AU - Rowe, James B.
AU - Graff, Caroline
AU - Tagliavini, Fabrizio
AU - Frisoni, Giovanni B.
AU - Laforce, Robert
AU - Finger, Elizabeth
AU - de Mendonça, Alexandre
AU - Sorbi, Sandro
AU - Warren, Jason D.
AU - Crutch, Sebastian
AU - Fox, Nick C.
AU - Ourselin, Sebastien
AU - Schott, Jonathan M.
AU - Rohrer, Jonathan D.
AU - Alexander, Daniel C.
AU - Andersson, Christin
AU - Archetti, Silvana
AU - Arighi, Andrea
AU - Benussi, Luisa
AU - Binetti, Giuliano
AU - Black, Sandra
AU - Cosseddu, Maura
AU - Fallström, Marie
AU - Ferreira, Carlos
AU - Fenoglio, Chiara
AU - Freedman, Morris
AU - Fumagalli, Giorgio G.
AU - Rademakers, Rosa
AU - Petersen, Ronald
AU - Jack, Clifford R.
AU - Bernstein, Matthew
AU - Vemuri, Prashanthi
AU - Kantarci, Kejal
AU - Knopman, David
AU - Graff-Radford, Neill R.
N1 - Funding Information: A.L.Y. is supported by a Doctoral Prize Fellowship from the EPSRC. N.P.O. is supported by the Biomarkers Across Neurodegenerative Diseases programme, which is funded by The Michael J. Fox Foundation for Parkinson's Research, the Alzheimer's Association, Alzheimer's Research UK and the Weston Brain Institute. R.V.M. is supported by the EPSRC Centre For Doctoral Training in Medical Imaging with grant EP/L016478/1. D.L.T. is supported by the UCL Leonard Wolfson Experimental Neurology Centre (PR/ylr/18575). K.D. is supported by an Alzheimer's Society PhD Studentship. J.B.R. is supported by the Wellcome Trust (103838). G.G.F. was supported by Associazione Italiana Ricerca Alzheimer ONLUS (AIRAlzh Onlus)-COOP Italia. J.D.W. is supported by the Alzheimer's Society, Alzheimer's Research UK and the NIHR UCLH Biomedical Research Centre. S.C. acknowledges the support of the NIHR Queen Square Dementia BRU, ARUK (ART-SRF2010-3), ESRC/NIHR (ES/L001810/1) and EPSRC (EP/M006093/1). J.M.S. acknowledges the support of the NIHR Queen Square Dementia BRU, the NIHR UCL/H Biomedical Research Centre, Wolfson Foundation, EPSRC (EP/J020990/1), MRC (MR/L023784/1), ARUK (ARUK-Network 2012-6-ICE; ARUK-PG2017-1946; ARUK-PG2017-1946), Brain Research Trust (UCC14191) and European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (Grant 666992). J.D.R. is supported by an MRC Clinician Scientist Fellowship (MR/M008525/1) and has received funding from the NIHR Rare Disease Translational Research Collaboration. The Dementia Research Centre is supported by Alzheimer's Research UK, Brain Research Trust and The Wolfson Foundation. This work is supported by the NIHR Queen Square Dementia Biomedical Research Unit and the NIHR UCL/H Biomedical Research Centre. This work is supported by EPSRC grants EP/J020990/01 and EP/M020533/1 and the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 666992 (EuroPOND: http://www.europond.eu). This work was also supported by the MRC UK GENFI grant (MR/M023664/1). Data collection and sharing for this project was funded by the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) (National Institutes of Health Grant U01 AG024904) and DOD ADNI (Department of Defense award number W81XWH-12-2-0012). ADNI is funded by the National Institute on Aging, the National Institute of Biomedical Imaging and Bioengineering, and through generous contributions from the following: AbbVie, Alzheimer's Association; Alzheimer's Drug Discovery Foundation; Araclon Biotech; BioClinica, Inc.; Biogen; Bristol-Myers Squibb Company; CereSpir, Inc.;Cogstate; Eisai Inc.; Elan Pharmaceuticals, Inc.; Eli Lilly and Company; EuroImmun; F. Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd and its affiliated company Genentech, Inc.; Fujirebio; GE Healthcare; IXICO Ltd.; Janssen Alzheimer Immunotherapy Research & Development, LLC.; Johnson & Johnson Pharmaceutical Research & Development LLC.; Lumosity; Lundbeck; Merck & Co., Inc.; Meso Scale Diagnostics, LLC.; NeuroRx Research; Neurotrack Technologies; Novartis Pharmaceuticals Corporation; Pfizer Inc.; Piramal Imaging; Servier; Takeda Pharmaceutical Company; and Transition Therapeutics. The Canadian Institutes of Health Research is providing funds to support ADNI clinical sitesin Canada. Private sector contributions are facilitated by the Foundation for the National Institutes of Health (http://www.fnih.org). The grantee organization is the Northern California Institute for Research and Education, and the study is coordinated by the Alzheimer's Therapeutic Research Institute at the University of Southern California. ADNI data are disseminated by the Laboratory for Neuro Imaging at the University of Southern California. Publisher Copyright: © 2018, The Author(s).
N2 - The heterogeneity of neurodegenerative diseases is a key confound to disease understanding and treatment development, as study cohorts typically include multiple phenotypes on distinct disease trajectories. Here we introduce a machine-learning technique—Subtype and Stage Inference (SuStaIn)—able to uncover data-driven disease phenotypes with distinct temporal progression patterns, from widely available cross-sectional patient studies. Results from imaging studies in two neurodegenerative diseases reveal subgroups and their distinct trajectories of regional neurodegeneration. In genetic frontotemporal dementia, SuStaIn identifies genotypes from imaging alone, validating its ability to identify subtypes; further the technique reveals within-genotype heterogeneity. In Alzheimer's disease, SuStaIn uncovers three subtypes, uniquely characterising their temporal complexity. SuStaIn provides fine-grained patient stratification, which substantially enhances the ability to predict conversion between diagnostic categories over standard models that ignore subtype (p = 7.18 × 10−4) or temporal stage (p = 3.96 × 10−5). SuStaIn offers new promise for enabling disease subtype discovery and precision medicine.
AB - The heterogeneity of neurodegenerative diseases is a key confound to disease understanding and treatment development, as study cohorts typically include multiple phenotypes on distinct disease trajectories. Here we introduce a machine-learning technique—Subtype and Stage Inference (SuStaIn)—able to uncover data-driven disease phenotypes with distinct temporal progression patterns, from widely available cross-sectional patient studies. Results from imaging studies in two neurodegenerative diseases reveal subgroups and their distinct trajectories of regional neurodegeneration. In genetic frontotemporal dementia, SuStaIn identifies genotypes from imaging alone, validating its ability to identify subtypes; further the technique reveals within-genotype heterogeneity. In Alzheimer's disease, SuStaIn uncovers three subtypes, uniquely characterising their temporal complexity. SuStaIn provides fine-grained patient stratification, which substantially enhances the ability to predict conversion between diagnostic categories over standard models that ignore subtype (p = 7.18 × 10−4) or temporal stage (p = 3.96 × 10−5). SuStaIn offers new promise for enabling disease subtype discovery and precision medicine.


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Revised Fiscal Framework and Revenue Proposals (Medium Term Budget Policy Statement 2012 (MTBPS 2012)): public hearings
This premium content has been made freely available
Chairperson: Mr C de Beer (Northern Cape, ANC) and Mr D van Rooyen (ANC) (Acting)
The Finance Standing and Select Committees heard Business Unity South Africa (BUSA) presented its comments on the 2012 Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS), reviewing the economic outlook - global (lower growth and higher risks) and domestic (weak performance), suggesting an overall approach, noting some positive features of the 2012 MTBPS, but also pointing out some vulnerabilities. Not all South Africa's problems could be blamed on global factors. There were numerous structural problems of South Africa's own making. The Marikana tragedy, industrial unrest, and violence, were being captured by ripple effects on the economy and by reassessments by the credit rating agencies. Some positive features included the MTBPS emphasis on the 'path to higher growth', highlighting the need for a buoyant private sector and an effective government to address the challenges of unemployment, poverty and inequality. BUSA endorsed the MTBPS emphasis on collaboration between key stakeholders in the economy and the renewed message of fiscal discipline. BUSA welcomed the use of tax compliance as a determinant of good standing when deciding to award a government tender and National Treasury's commitment to the appointment of senior procurement staff. Some vulnerabilities included the possibility that any further accidents to growth could push the ratio of gross debt to GDP to a danger level of 50%. The emphasis on infrastructural spending must create productive assets for the future. It was key to improve state capacity and promote the mobilisation of private sector capacity. BUSA urged National Treasury to facilitate a better planned and coordinated approach to affordability in decisions on administered prices. BUSA was deeply concerned at the drop in foreign direct investment flows to South Africa. South Africa could, however, prove the skeptics wrong. The 'virtuous circle' of high growth, democratic governance and social development was possible, but there must be commitment to the National Development Plan and the Vision for 2030. To ensure focus on attacking poverty and expanding a robust, entrepreneurial and innovative economy, the Government must create the conditions and environment for higher levels of public and private investments.
The Financial and Fiscal Commission (FFC) supported the MTBPS's main themes. It reviewed the general economic outlook, state debt, fiscal consolidation, the fiscal framework, and growth-enhancing fiscal consolidation: risks and opportunities. The FFC called for a balanced approach to energy price increases. The FFC estimated that energy price increases would have a minimal impact on economic growth, and result in a small net increase in employment mainly due to increased demand in investment products. However, there was no doubt that employment prospects for the poor would be negatively affected. Postponing investment in the energy sector could have quite massive impacts on economic growth. An end to the recession would see an increased demand for electricity from industry. The FFC called for a strengthening of existing interventions such as the free basic electricity for poor households. The other area of risk and opportunity was around infrastructure and trade. The FFC noted that increased growth was expected next to South Africa's borders, in sub-Saharan Africa. Growth in South Africa could only be achieved by simultaneously achieving fiscal consolidation as well as investment. Implementation of the MTBPS would be even more difficult than crafting it. It was very important to make sure that the development impact of social and infrastructure expenditure actually increased. The FFC supported Government's intention to intensify initiatives to combat waste, inefficiency, and corruption. It was also important to reduce underspending masquerading as saving. Equally important was the financial sustainability of provinces and municipalities. The FFC welcomed the progress by national Government on stabilising the finances of the three provinces under Section 100 administration, but the current environment undermined accountability, oversight frameworks, and sustained capacity building, and needed to be addressed urgently.
ANC Members asked what business could do to assist in building the capacity of the state and how cooperatives featured in BUSA's plans. The core of spending efficiency was the capacity, skills and training of South Africa's citizenry. How did business think that efficiency could be achieved? Did BUSA have any community-related programmes to ensure increasing the capacity of the citizenry? How often did BUSA interact with the National Treasury on planning, monitoring and evaluation? Was BUSA on the same wavelength as National Treasury in understanding the difficulties of the country going forward? BUSA's submission did not indicate that it had a plan for investment to grow the economy, nor did it indicate a collective will from business to invest to ensure job creation. BUSA expected Government to create incentives but BUSA itself did not seem to have a plan. How would BUSA measure corruption and stop it from increasing? Lack of capacity became an excuse for unsatisfactory performance. National Treasury and the FFC were complaining about their own lack of capacity. BUSA and FFC must clarify their views on reprioritisation while suspending, as a result, certain aspects of service delivery. In which direction was one driving the economy, when FFC said that planning was difficult but implementation was even more difficult? BUSA and FFC's views were sought on the appropriateness of the downgraded credit ratings recently given to South Africa. How much would this cost the economy? What was the FFC's core function? Where was the FFC as a consultative body when there was under spending? Was there any link between 'talking the country down' and the decline in foreign direct investment?
DA Members asked if BUSA had adequately taken labour unrest and uncontrolled wage increases into account in its projections, and asked BUSA how the credit rating agencies would view the MTBPS. Two years ago BUSA had indicated to Members that it was ready to assist with infrastructure building. Surely more could have been done, especially in terms of financing? About 39% of the nearly R12 billion budget for public-private partnerships remained unspent. Were the infrastructure programmes asking too much of the state-owned enterprises (SOEs)? Increased electricity tariffs would be very negative in their effect on the small business sector and amount to a form of double taxation.
The Manufacturing Circle pointed out the crisis in manufacturing. It illustrated the relationship between mining, reviewed monetary policy, and addressed administered prices, electricity and water. It pointed out South Africa's policy versus that of Brazil: Brazil was cutting industrial electricity rates by 28% with effect from 2013. South African manufacturers had found it hard to bear the steep, bunched-up increases in the electricity prices. It preferred a longer term and more gradual cost increase trajectory. Electricity discounts should be considered as an interim measure to assist manufacturers to adjust. The Manufacturing Circle had a technical working group with the National Treasury on macro-economic policy, regulatory issues, and customs (dumping and illegal imports). It had identified the need for a strong buy local campaign. It gave a report-back on incentives. It noted that planning, procurement, and contract management were areas in which the private sector had available capacity which could result in much better efficiency in delivering large scale infrastructure at more competitive costs. It saw the negative effect of industrial unrest on production and on investors' regard for South Africa as a major concern. Progress in social dialogue would be fundamental to South Africa's shared future prosperity.
Earthlife Africa – Johannesburg submitted that Parliament could not fulfill its constitutional duties if it did not have all the relevant information on the costs of the proposed nuclear procurement Failure to exercise its oversight could potentially constrain the State irrecoverably, and could inhabit the fiscal freedom of future generations. Earthlife Africa recommended that Parliament require the Department of Energy to complete an accurate cost analysis and should act in a more transparent manner and provide adequate information. It was important to learn from the lessons of the Arms Deal. Earthlife Africa noted that nuclear energy was a minor component of the South African energy sector and observed that the Nuclear Energy Corporation of South Africa's expenditure rose to R1.8 billion in 2011/12 at an average annual rate of 19% since 2008/09. Integrated resource planning (IRP) was an appropriate tool for planning electricity systems and, if applied correctly, should assure that consumers received a reliable, clean electricity service at the lowest cost. However, none of the technologies being discussed was proven. There were also unresolved safety issues. Overall, there was a risk that South Africa would commit itself to a large number of reactors that would impose huge additional costs on consumers. However, the more likely risk was that, as in 2008, the nuclear programme would prove impossible. If the nuclear programme was not abandoned now, the risks that efforts to make it happen would continue for several more years, wasting Government's time and money.
ANC Members asked Earthlife Africa if there was anything positive to say about nuclear energy. Was its presentation just lobbying? Had it concentrated only on the negative aspects of nuclear energy? They wanted a tabulation of alternative sources of energy and a comparison of costs. If the manufacturing sector lobbied for a discount on electricity tariffs, to whom should the cost burden of the discount be passed – to households? ANC Members asked what information Earthlife Africa could give the Committees, in due course, on the costs of the alternative energy sources that it had mentioned. Another ANC Member found the submission of Earthlife Africa confusing and contradictory. An ANC Member pointed out that economic growth was not necessarily synonymous with increased employment. There was little reference to skills development in the submissions. One must avoid the risk of employing cheap labour. The European crisis affected South Africa. Also the rand was very weak, and it was necessary to be realistic in costing.
A DA Member said that Earthlife Africa might be right that there was a veil of secrecy over the nuclear energy programme. However, the nuclear programme did not feature in the electricity price determination for the next five years. How relevant was the submission in terms of the current time frames? Nuclear energy had a peculiar funding model and was very expensive in the construction stage, though it was cheaper in the operational phase. It was important to have an in-depth analysis and comparison with other costs. State Owned Enterprises could not be judged by the same criteria as private entrepreneurs as they did not carry the same risks. The cost of electricity was so high because consumers had to pay upfront for the cost of investment for the future.
Chairperson C de Beer (ANC) said that the fiscal framework could be seen as a set of rules and principles that guided fiscal behaviour, fiscal decision-making and fiscal evaluation over the Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) period. It was also a reality that the global economic reality had weakened with a broad-based slowdown in both advanced and emerging economies. As indicated on Friday, it was important to note as background from where South Africa had come. In 1994 the total revenue was R112.4 billion. Expenditure was R137 billion. Debt service cost was R24.1 billion. This was 48% of the gross domestic product (GDP). It was now R35.7% of GDP.
Business Unity South Africa (BUSA) submission
Prof Raymond Parsons, BUSA Senior Policy Adviser, presenting BUSA's comments on the revised fiscal framework and Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS), noted a close convergence between National Treasury and BUSA's economic forecasts.
Globally, the economic outlook was for lower growth and higher risks. Economic growth in developed countries was expected to average about 1.5% in 2012/13. In developing countries it was expected to average about 5.5% in 2012/13. In the Eurozone it was expected to average 0.1% in 2012/13. Growth had also slowed in China to 7.5%, although some analysts saw this as the lower turning point for the Chinese economy.
Domestically, the economic outlook was for weak performance. BUSA expected growth this year of about 2.5%, rising to about 3% in 2013. Consumer price inflation was expected to remain within the 3% to 6% target band over the forecast period, though with renewed pressure from food prices, administered prices and fuel costs. Gross fixed capital formation would rise by about 5.5% this year, mainly supported by public sector capital spending. Business and investor confidence was at present weak and vulnerable. With declining exports and rising imports, the current account deficit was likely to widen to about 6% of GDP.
After 2013 an improving global economy was likely to support stronger growth in local exports. At the same time, progress in the delivery of key economic infrastructure should support a more broadly based revival in capital spending, bringing faster gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2014, possibly to about 3.8%.
Overall approach
South Africa had remained a modest 3.0% to 3.5% growth performer. Unlike some other leading emerging economies, it had not discovered the way to transform to 5%, 7% or even higher average growth performance. Thus after a short, speculatively-driven consumption boom during 2005/07 and a short, sharp recession in 2009, South Africa now found itself constrained in a 2.5% to 3% growth trajectory with a significant loss of growth drivers. Most analysts believed that South Africa's growth performance could not exceed 4% at best. This was inadequate to meet the challenges of unemployment, poverty and inequality.
In assessing where the emphasis must fall in policy decisions, BUSA believed that it was necessary to distinguish clearly between the factors over which South Africa had little or no control, such as the global economy, and factors over which it did have control, such as domestic policies. BUSA therefore agreed with the Minister of Finance in that South Africa had to look at itself. With deteriorating prospects for the world economy, a declining domestic growth trajectory, a limited tax base and on-going spending pressure, South Africa's fiscal space had diminished in the MTBPS. However, BUSA concurred with the Minister that not all South Africa's problems could be blamed on global factors. There were numerous structural problems in the domestic economy which were of South Africa's own making. The Marikana tragedy, industrial unrest, and violence, were being captured by ripple effects on the economy and by reassessments by the credit rating agencies.
Against this background, BUSA assessed certain features of the MTBPS as follows:
Some positive features
Fiscal sustainability over the medium term would depend on government's ability to adhere to overall spending targets and, above all, to keep its wage costs under control. BUSA welcomed the extent to which budgetary decisions were increasingly aligned with the framework of the National Development Plan (NDP). This put South Africa in a better position to take coherent and coordinated short term and long term decisions to deal with the stresses and strains in the current economic outlook. Encouragingly, the MTBPS placed emphasis on the 'path to higher growth', highlighting the need for a buoyant private sector and an effective government to address the challenges of unemployment, poverty and inequality.
The MTBPS provided a definitive statement on the limits that South Africa's debt to GDP ratio of fiscal deficit should not exceed in changed economic circumstances to avoid falling into a 'debt trap'. The MTBPS renewed the commitment to stabilising the debt at reasonable levels, as was essential for long term investment and confidence. The fiscal outlook must remain credible, with the right balance between consumption and investment spending by the state, including the sustainability of the state wage bill. Thus the public sector must be wise spenders not big spenders.
BUSA endorsed the MTBPS emphasis on collaboration between key stakeholders in the economy. The MTBPS 'message' must be seen in the context of the High Level Social Dialogue (HLSD) 'package' released by President Zuma on 18 October 2012.
BUSA supported the MTBPS renewed message of fiscal discipline. BUSA welcomed the use of tax compliance as a determinant of good standing when deciding to award a government tender.
BUSA welcomed National Treasury's commitment to the appointment of senior procurement staff. Public and private procurement was an essential stimulator of demand for small and expanding firms. Of critical importance was that both public and private sectors must implement a commitment to payment of invoices to small and medium-sized suppliers within 30 days
Some vulnerabilities
Headline fiscal ratios might appear safe but this could mask vulnerabilities. Because the economic recovery was slower than expected, government's target of a budget deficit of 3% of GDP had been pushed out by another year to 2015/16. Unless the state kept its recurrent expenditure under control, any further accidents to growth could push the ratio of gross debt to GDP to a danger level of 50% (the generally accepted rule of thumb for emerging as opposed to developed economies.
BUSA was concerned at the MTBPS frequent references to the rising public sector wage bill. It was essential that the emphasis on infrastructural spending must create productive assets for the future.
The MTBPS indicted that taxes might be increased if the economy did not recover. With estimated revenue falling by R5 million, of which R3.9 billion was due to lower collection of personal taxes, the National Treasury would be under pressure to find other forms of revenue.
To ensure the effective implementation and financing of key infrastructural projects, which had been an important part of counter-cyclical policy, it was key to improve state capacity and promote the mobilisation of private sector capacity whether through public-private sector partnerships (PPPs) or other creative mechanisms.
BUSA urged National Treasury to facilitate a better planned and coordinated approach to affordability in decisions around administered prices and their effect on the cost of doing business in South Africa.
BUSA was deeply concerned at the drop in foreign direct investment flows to South Africa by 44% in the past year. National Treasury needed to finalise its draft policy document on guidelines for cross-border investment in order to help stabilise the situation. The MTBPS did not refer to this.
Concluding comments
BUSA concluded that if South Africa could craft and implement the right short-term and long-term measures to address current challenges, it could prove the skeptics wrong. It was largely in South Africa's hands to write a different story. Also, the challenges of a better economic performance lay beyond fiscal policy and the National Treasury alone.
There was a 'virtuous circle' of high growth, democratic governance and social development, and this was possible in South Africa.
The NDP confirmed that all these considerations pointed to a need for a higher job-rich growth path, a faster pace of development, and a society wealthier in the broadest sense rather than the narrow. Therefore one must widen and deepen the commitment to the NDP and the vision for 2030.
To ensure that South Africa's energies were focused on attacking poverty and expanding a robust, entrepreneurial and innovative economy, the Government must create the conditions and environment for higher levels of public and private investments to create jobs and ensure rising incomes.
(See presentation and submission documents).
Financial and Fiscal Commission (FFC) submission
Mr Bongani Khumalo, FFC Acting Chairperson and CEO, reviewed the general economic outlook (graphs, slides 5 and 6); and state debt (graph, slide 7).
Economic growth was at risk. State debt was rising, even though it was still within sustainable limits, and posed a significant risk going forward, especially if that debt was used wastefully or inefficiently.
Much as Government was committed to fiscal consolidation (graph, slide 8), it appeared from the figures as reckoned against the commitments, that South Africa was progressing very slowly, and more slowly than expected.
Dr Ramos Mabugu, FFC Research & Recommendations Programme (RRP) Director, discussed growth-enhancing fiscal consolidation: risks and opportunities, the FFC was aware of fears that if Eskom's price requests were granted, they might destabilise macroeconomic forecasts. The FFC called for a balanced approach. The negative aspect was pricing and consequences on consumption. The positive aspect was investment and the resultant revenues. The FFC estimated that energy price increases would have a minimal impact on economic growth, and result in a small net 0.2% increase in employment and 0.17% decrease in unemployment mainly due to increased demand in investment products. However, there was no doubt that employment prospects for the poor would be negatively affected. There was also concern at the cost of providing electricity for municipalities. (Slide 9)
Dr Mabugu pointed out that postponing investment in the energy sector could have quite massive impacts on economic growth. Because South Africa had been in a recession, the actual notional demand for electricity had been subdued. An end to the recession would see an increased demand for electricity from industry. There was no doubt about the need for greater investment. The FFC called for a strengthening of existing interventions such as the free basic electricity for poor households, and strengthening the social assistance programme as ways of responding to that impact on the marginally poor.
The other area of risk and opportunity was around infrastructure and trade. The FFC noted that increased growth was expected next to South Africa's borders, in sub-Saharan Africa. South Africa's main trading partners, in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and with China, saw a big jump in trade. The FFC thought that growth projections needed to continue focusing on that strategy. However, Europe and the rest of the developed world were still in terms of levels and volume South Africa's biggest trade partners.
Mr Khumalo alluded to the division of revenue (slide 11) to the contingency reserve, which made provision for unavoidable expenditures. He then referred briefly to medium term spending priorities – job creation, education, health, and social development (slides 12-16); proposed changes to conditional grants (slides 17-20); local government policy issues (slides 21-24); and review of actual spending and adjustment estimates (slides 25-28). He noted the progress on the Local Equitable Share (LES) formula and FFC would continue to engage with Government and stakeholders on this initiative. The amount of resources flowing to local government had almost doubled over the past five years. He did discuss these aspects further, since the details were relevant more to the agenda of the Appropriations Standing and Select Committees.
FFC Commissioner Tania Ajam said that this MTBPS resonated quite strongly with what the FFC had been recommending since the start of the global recession, bearing in mind that growth in South Africa could only be achieved by simultaneously achieving fiscal consolidation as well as investment for future growth. It was important to note that while the MTBPS was a very good plan and crafting it had been difficult, implementation would be even more difficult. Given that South Africa was in a situation, where, unlike in the past, baselines were staying the same, and the country had to live within a very tight resource envelope. It was very important to make sure that the development impact of social and infrastructure expenditure actually increased. The FFC also supported Government's intention to intensify initiatives to combat waste, inefficiency, and corruption. It was also important to reduce underspending masquerading as saving. Equally important was the financial sustainability of provinces and municipalities. The FFC welcomed the progress by national Government on stabilising the finances of the three provinces under Section 100 administration, but the current environment undermined accountability, oversight frameworks, and sustained capacity building, and needed to be addressed urgently. (See submission document for details.)
(See submission documents.)
Mr B Mashile (Mpumalanga, ANC), noting that Prof Parsons was taking up an academic appointment, observed that business was depleting the capacity of government by attracting staff away from the public sector, and asked what business could do to assist in building the capacity of the state. How did cooperatives feature in BUSA's plans? How would BUSA assist cooperatives to fulfill their indented role? Did BUSA think that South Africa was heading towards a crisis?
Mr J Bekker (Western Cape, DA) was worried about labour unrest. Had BUSA adequately taken this unrest and its influence into account in its projections? He was also worried about uncontrolled wage increases. What could happen?
Ms Z Dlamini-Dubazana (ANC) was interested to understand fully the contribution of the business sector. The Minister had noted the importance of efficiency in spending. One could not achieve spending efficiency without capacity in the public sector and in the community itself. How did business think that efficiency could be achieved? The core of the matter was the capacity, skills and training of South Africa's citizenry.
Dr Z Luyenge (ANC)'s question was a rider to the previous two questions in relation to the role of the citizenry in improving capacity in general to respond to their economic needs. Did BUSA have any community-related programmes to ensure increasing the capacity of the citizenry? How often did BUSA interact with the National Treasury on planning, monitoring and evaluation? Was BUSA on the same wavelength as National Treasury in understanding the difficulties of the country going forward?
The Chairperson said that the issue of Section 100 intervention had been referred to the Finance Select Committee in the National Council of Provinces (NCOP), and that Committee had agreed that such an intervention must be reviewed on a quarterly basis, not biannually. The Committee's report would be tabled in the NCOP in November.
Mr Mashile asked about the Southern African Fuel Switch Programme and feared making an accumulation of debt a burden for future generations.
Eskom was indulging in 'fun days' for its reasonably paid workers. How did such expenditures affect the stability of the private sector, the workers, and the level of output needed to sustain incomes and the fiscus?
Mr S Montsitsi (Gauteng, ANC) said that there were problems in transformation as the Minister for Trade and Industry had seen fit to revise the Black Economic Empowerment (BEE) score. BUSA's submission did not indicate that it had a plan for investment to grow the economy, nor did it indicate a collective will from business to invest to ensure job creation. What were BUSA's plans on these two issues? BUSA expected Government to create incentives but BUSA itself did not seem to have a plan.
Dr Luyenge deplored the levels of corruption which grew day by day. How would BUSA measure corruption and stop it from increasing? From the dawn of democracy there had been a cry of insufficient capacity from all corners of South Africa. This lack of capacity became an excuse for unsatisfactory performance. One was serious about closing the gap between the haves and the have-nots, but if National Treasury and the FFC were pointing at the lack of capacity, they were also complaining about their own lack of capacity when they had a transversal function of monitoring and evaluation of other departments. BUSA was now sharing the same sentiments as National Treasury when it insinuated that there should be less spending (some might say 'saving'). The notion of saving was foreign to Government, because it was not a for-profit organisation. One should not 'save' at the expense of service delivery. He asked BUSA and FFC to clarify their views on reprioritisation while suspending, as a result, certain aspects of service delivery. In which direction was one driving the economy, when FFC said that planning was difficult but implementation was even more difficult? He agreed with Chairperson de Beer on the need for quarterly reporting on Section 100 interventions, but how could such interventions be effective without capacity in the department concerned? FFC and BUSA must be clear on alternatives.
Mr D Ross (DA) asked BUSA how the credit rating agencies would view the MTBPS. Two years ago BUSA had indicated to Members that it was ready to assist with infrastructure building. Surely more could have been done, especially in terms of financing? There was a lack of clarity on the funding options for the infrastructure build. Also there was lack of clarity on the involvement of BUSA. The 2012 budget review of the public sector infrastructure expenditure for the last financial year was disconcerting. About 39% of the nearly R12 billion budget for public-private partnerships remained unspent. Were the infrastructure programmes asking too much of the state-owned enterprises (SOEs)? What details had BUSA of these infrastructure programmes? Was there sufficient implementation, and consultation with BUSA when the Presidential Infrastructure Coordinating Commission (PICC) met? Was BUSA happy with the progress? He asked the FFC for its views on the R45 billion allocation to renewable energy. He questioned Eskom's formula for determining electricity tariffs, given that it was an SOE. Increases in tariffs would be very negative in their effect on the small business sector and amount to a form of double taxation.
Chairperson Van Rooyen asked for BUSA and FFC's views on the appropriateness of the downgraded credit ratings recently given to South Africa. How much would this cost the economy? How did the severe scenario envisaged compare to a crisis?
Ms Dlamini-Dubazana asked what the FFC's core function was. She had expected more from it, especially as the law required Parliament to use its recommendations. Where was the FFC as a consultative body when there was under spending?
Ms J Tshabalala (ANC) asked BUSA and FFC what remedies they envisaged to ensure that the situation did not get worse.
Mr Mashile asked FFC and BUSA on those who 'talked the country down'. Was there any link between such talk and the decline in foreign direct investment?
Prof Parsons offered to respond in writing to some of the questions. He affirmed his availability to give advice. His move to academia was, indeed, enlarging his capacity. The most important thing that could emerge from these discussions was agreement on the need for a coherent and cohesive approach. BUSA had 18 months ago as part of its input to the National Planning Commission (NPC) given a set of recommendations – BUSA's 'roadmap'. BUSA would be happy to make that document available. His impression was that the credit rating agencies were taking a neutral attitude to the MTBPS. If one wanted to hold up a mirror to a country, there were several tests that one would apply; whether it was the global competitiveness Index (GCI or the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reports, one should not become too obsessed with any one particular index. There was a whole chapter in the NDP on corruption, and BUSA had previously made recommendations. BUSA was guided by a recognised global corruption index which it used to advise on which actions business could take, bearing in mind that it took two parties to carry out a corrupt act. He would be willing to make further information available. Infrastructure was an important issue, because the awareness of that gap referred to by Members, that had led to the President's calling together the social partners. He referred to the High Level Social Dialogue (HLSD) 'package' released by President Zuma on 18 October 2012, and quoted at length on this work in progress. Unless one could find a balanced policy, as advised by the FFC, the decisions taken on administered prices would be counter-productive. Businesses were closing down because of the cumulative effect of these increases. He emphasised that local authorities played an important role in the effects of electricity tariffs on business. BUSA emphasised the importance of empowering the citizenry in helping improve capacity and delivery. BUSA had regular meetings with National Treasury's economists to examine trends. The Minister of Finance would be meeting with business and labour at the National Economic Development and Labour Council (NEDLAC). However, perhaps there was need for better communication with some other Government departments. BUSA would have to reply later on cooperatives. BUSA shared the Minister's view on South Africa's challenges. The Greek and Spanish crises were examples of the price of procrastination. South Africa had some good cards to play, if it played them. The GDP was not only the gross domestic product, but also the gross domestic politics. It was two sides of the same coin. Hence the need for consensus, and to find salvation among ourselves, rather than in the global economy.
Mr Khumalo reassured Members that the FFC did not have a problem of capacity. The MTBPS had been crafted under very difficult circumstances internally and externally. It must be accepted that there were capacity challenges, institutional and individual, in the state. Statements made in the context of the difficulties were based on actual observations. There was a need to think differently. Money was returned to the fiscus, and was considered to be savings, but at the same time it was known that there was a shortfall in service delivery. So it had to be asked if resources were being allocated to where they were needed and where they would be effectively utilised. In economics and public finance one referred to allocative efficiency – matching the resources to the need.
The FFC was set up to advise Parliament, provincial legislatures and organised local government on financial and fiscal matters and on the division of revenue among the three spheres of government. This was the FFC's constitutional mandate. It was not the role of the FFC to intervene by itself in a municipality, province, or governmental department. Its recommendations were primarily intended for Parliament, rather than the Executive. Many parliamentary committees sought the FFC's advice.
Mr Khumalo explained, with reference to the Southern African Fuel Switch Programme, the use of debt productively. If future generations inherited the benefit, there was no problem.
It was difficult to respond to questions on what Eskom actually did with monies allocated to it, or monies that it raised. However, it was important not to postpone investment.
Mr Khumalo referred Members to the written submission for more information on Section 100 interventions. Moreover, the FFC had already made to Parliament a submission on Section 100 interventions.
Dr Mabugu replied that the 'severe scenario' referred to the impact of the global crisis on the South African economy. However, in addition to the external shocks, there were now the internal shocks in the form of labour strikes which were affecting the key sectors for driving the recovery process.
Manufacturing Circle submission
Mr Coenraad Bezuidenhout, Manufacturing Circle Executive Director, presenting the Circle's responses to the MTBPS, pointed out the crisis in manufacturing. He illustrated the relationship between mining, manufacturing production, and vehicle sales, and annual growth in South Africa from January 2010 to June 2012 (graph, slide 3); South Africa's imports and exports, January 2011 to June 2012 (graph, slide 4); trade deficit entrenches on lower exports and increased imports (bar chart, slide 5); manufacturing imports from developed and the Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS) group of countries (illegible slide 6); that the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) contracted to a three year low in September 2012 (graph, slide 7); employment in manufacturing 2008 to 2012 (illegible graph, slide 8); and that 440 000 businesses had closed in five years (graph, slide 9).
He reviewed monetary policy. He indicated cost pushes and rand strength (table, slide 11); rand volatility and South African competitiveness – the manufacturing narrative (slide 12); the implied exchange rate volatility – South Africa and the Peer Group 2005 to 2010 (graph, slide 13); growth reserves versus measures of adequacy – South Africa 2008 to 2016 (graph, slide 14); and rand volatility and South African competitiveness – manufacturing narrative (slide 15).
He addressed administered prices, electricity and water. He showed the growth rates of administered prices between 2000 and 2010 (illegible slide 17); pointed out South Africa's policy versus that of Brazil: as Eskom readied itself to motivate for further increases at nearly three times the inflation rate (16%) over the next five years, which could lead to increases to consumers as much as 19%, Brazil was cutting industrial electricity rates by 28% with effect from 2013; and noted the cost push effects of electricity: South African manufacturers had found it a great challenge to bear the steep, bunched-up increases in the electricity prices against a background of numerous other domestic inefficiencies, the resultant cost-push thereof and South Africa's unequal trade position (slide 20; also see previous, hardly legible, slide 19).
The Manufacturing Circle had specific proposals on electricity: it would prefer a longer term and more gradual cost increase trajectory. This would be easier to achieve if the National Energy Regulator of South Africa (NERSA) was better capacitated to interrogate Eskom price increases, and Eskom were better sensitised to economic growth and job creation imperatives and their important role in helping to exercise them in South Africa. The Manufacturing Circle proposed that electricity discounts be considered as an interim measures to assist manufacturers to adjust. It also gave broader proposals on administered prices (slide 22),
Progress to date comprised a technical working group with the National Treasury covering such issues as macro-economic policy, regulatory issues, and customs (dumping and illegal imports (slide 24); and identifying the need for a strong buy local campaign (slide 25). A report-back on incentives was provided (slide 27; see also written submission).
In its written submission, the Manufacturing Circle commended the Minister in reminding the international community that South Africa, relatively speaking, was a haven of macro-economic stability. Government's intention was to maintain fiscal health while firmly supporting the productive side of the economy through better spending on infrastructure, economic competitiveness, education and health care. Measures to improve procurement, reduce corruption, and support capital spending were positive. The Manufacturing Circle was heartened by the Minister's acknowledgement of shortcomings in planning, procurement, and contract management. These were areas in which the private sector had capacity to make available which would result in much better efficiency in delivering large scale infrastructure at more competitive costs. The Manufacturing Circle applauded savings achieved and the reprioritisation of spending, but believed it was correct that the Minister had again emphasised the importance of moderating the public sector wage bill. The Manufacturing Circle saw the negative effect of industrial unrest on production and on investors' regard for South Africa as a major concern. Progress in social dialogue would be fundamental to South Africa's shared future prosperity.
The Circle reviewed fiscal policy, monetary policy, electricity, water, administered prices, local procurement issues, trade issues (customs control and illegal imports), and gave an overview and report back on the effectiveness of industrial policy incentives.
It noted that the response to the Manufacturing Competitiveness Enhancement Programme (MCEP) had been very positive, with manufacturers seeing it as a flexible programme that tried to address competitiveness issues sincerely, rather than trying to pick winners. The Critical Infrastructure Programme (CIP), the Motor Industry Development Programme (MIDP), and the Enterprise Investment and Manufacturing Investment Programmes (EIP/MIP) were deemed to be accessible with application turnaround time of between three and eight months. These programmes were considered by Manufacturing Circle Members to be structured effectively. There were no reports of successful applications under the Jobs Fund. The lack of success was ascribed to a lack of upfront clarity in respect of requirements relating to the types of investments that were likely to succeed, the amount that needed to be invested per job that would be created, and the exclusion of the creation of indirect jobs from consideration. The Manufacturing Circle noted the outsourcing of Jobs Fund approvals to improve the success of the programme. (See submission documents).
Earthlife Africa – Johannesburg submission
Ms Trusha Reddy, Earthlife Africa - Jhb spokesperson, quoted from the National Planning Commission, and Sections 195 and 215(1) of the Constitution (slide 1).Parliament could not fulfill its constitutional duties if it did not have all the relevant information on the costs of the proposed nuclear procurement at its disposal. Moreover, it must have up to date information on the expenditure planned for the nuclear procurement programme. The failure of Parliament to exercise properly its oversight powers at this early stage would not only be in conflict with its constitutional duties, but could potentially constrain the State irrecoverably, and could inhabit the fiscal freedom of future generations.
Mr Tristen Taylor, Earthlife Africa – Jhb Project Coordinator, outlined concerns: insufficient or inaccurate estimates of the true cost of proposed future nuclear power; a fleet of nuclear power stations would involve a level of investment unprecedented in South Africa; could bind the state and future generations to its detriment and be costly to change; high opportunity costs; and costs at the Nuclear Energy Corporation of South Africa (NECSA), repeating mistakes (slide 2).
He presented Earthlife Africa – Jhb's three main recommendations. Firstly, the Committees should recommend to the National Assembly and the National Council of Provinces that the Department of Energy (the DoE) complete an accurate cost analysis; and the DoE's Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) 2010/30 was inadequate as a basis for decision-making, while Parliament lacked comprehensive information on the cost of the nuclear programme, and procurement of a 'fleet' of nuclear reactors rather than single reactors violated the requirements of cost-effectiveness and financial management. Secondly, the DoE should act in a more transparent manner and provide adequate information to the public and to Parliament. Thirdly, any large-scale procurement must be conditional upon greater parliamentary oversight. (See slides 3-7). He emphasised that it was important to learn from the lessons of the arms deal.
Prof Stephen Thomas, Professor of Energy Policy, University of Greenwich, referred to the 1998 White Paper on Energy. Nuclear energy was a minor component of the South African energy sector, but despite its small contribution, it had received a major portion of the then Department of Minerals and Energy's budget. The Pebble Bed Modular Reactor programme (PBMR) loss was R9.4 billion as of 2011. NECSA's core business brought in R1.1 billion of revenue in 2011 but its expenses were R1.62 billion. (See slide 8). He referred to the Estimates of National Expenditure (ENE) for Vote 29. NECSA expenditure rose to R1.8 billion in 2011/12 at an average annual rate of 19% since 2008/09. (See slide 9).
Integrated resource planning (IRP) was an appropriate tool for planning electricity systems and, if applied correctly, should assure that consumers received a reliable, clean electricity service at the lowest cost. However, the nuclear programme of six reactors of 1 600 MW commissioned at 18 month intervals from 2022 onwards was not an output of the IRP calculations, if it was an input assumption imposed by the Government.
None of the technologies being discussed was proven in the sense of having operating reactors anywhere in the world. There were also unresolved safety issues. The background to this discussion was a period of 14 years when the Government worked on the assumption that a nuclear programme was desirable and feasible, first with the Pebble Bed programme and then with the failed call for tenders for nuclear capacity in 2008. This resulted in a large waste of public money, but, more importantly, a period of 14 years when other options that could have been delivered were not exploited as fully as they should have been. South Africa could ill-afford another significant period when a non-viable option was pursued.
Overall, there was a risk that South Africa would commit itself to a large number of reactors that would impose huge additional costs on consumers. However, the more likely risk was that, as in 2008, the nuclear programme would prove impossible. Since 1998, when the Pebble Bed Modular Reactor programme was launched, the Government had operated on the assumption that nuclear power plants would make up a significant proportion of generation. The result was that other options had been neglected. If the nuclear programme was not abandoned now, the risks that efforts to make it happen would continue for several more years, wasting Government's time and money and leading to more neglect of alternatives, before the Government again, as it did with the PBMR and the failed tender of 2008 had to admit defeat.
(See submission document).
Chairperson de Beer felt that the section of this submission which dealt with spending on energy should have been submitted also to the Appropriations Committees, which were meeting concurrently that morning.
Mr E Mthethwa (ANC) asked Earthlife Africa - Jhb if there was anything positive to say about nuclear energy. Was its presentation just lobbying? Had it concentrated only on the negative aspects of nuclear energy?
Mr Montsitsi wished that Earthlife Africa – Jhb had been able to tabulate alternative sources of energy, and compare the costs, as it was clear that the organisation would not support Government's nuclear energy initiative.
The Manufacturing Circle was asking for discounted prices for electricity for manufacturing industry. It was, however, clear to all role players that there was indeed a shortage of energy. Eskom was attempting to make provision to expand its capacity and ensure that there was sufficient energy. However, if the manufacturing sector lobbied for a discount, where did this place households? To whom should the load of the costs of the discount be passed?
Ms Dlamini-Dubazana found insight from Earthlife Africa - Jhb's paper. She asked what information Earthlife Africa - Jhb could give the Committees, in due course, on the costs of the alternatives that it had mentioned.
Chairperson de Beer asked Earthlife Africa – Jhb to assist the Committees with such a document.
Mr Ross was sure that Earthlife Africa – Jhb would be happy with the R45 billion allocation to renewable energy. To a certain extent the organisation might be right that there was a veil of secrecy over the nuclear energy programme. However, the nuclear programme did not feature in the electricity price determination for the next five years. How relevant was the submission in terms of the current time frames? He agreed that nuclear energy had a peculiar funding model and was very expensive in the construction stage, though it was cheaper in the operational phase. It was important to have an in-depth analysis and comparison with other costs.
Mr Ross asked the Manufacturing Circle if South Africa was heading towards a crisis. There was no commitment to inflation-related administered prices. What was included in the cost-reflective prices? SOEs could not be judged by the same criteria as private entrepreneurs as they did not carry the same risks. The cost of electricity was so high because consumers had to pay upfront for the cost of investment for the future, as well as for the cost of the interest on money borrowed for that purposes. What could be done? 440 000 jobs had been lost in the manufacturing sector. National Treasury needed to be involved.
Mr Mashile found the submission of Earthlife Africa – Jhb confusing and contradictory.
Ms Tshabalala pointed out that economic growth was not necessarily synonymous with increased employment. There was little reference to skills development in the submissions. One must avoid the risk of employing cheap labour. The European crisis affected South Africa. Also the rand was very weak, and it was
Chairperson de Beer said that there would be further opportunities to make submissions in separate public hearings in February 2013 on the fiscal framework and revenue proposals, and on the division of revenue and appropriations. Earthlife Africa – Jhb should make a submission to the Appropriations Committees in the hearings on the division of revenue in terms of budget allocations. He curtailed time for responses.
Mr Tristen Taylor, Earthlife Africa – Jhb Project Coordinator, replied that whether or not his organisation had negative views on nuclear energy was irrelevant to today's discussion. Earthlife Africa – Jhb was presenting the concerns of citizens who cared about the Constitution and were doing their patriotic duty. There was a constitutional crisis brewing. The long-term and overall cost of the nuclear energy programme was not known. There was danger of approving an unknown cost. Moreover, it was the NPC that was saying that the costs of the programme were unknown. He pleaded for an accurate cost assessment. This submission was highly relevant in view of the expenditures involved as against the need for the alleviation of South Africa's widespread poverty. None of the claims for the export potential of the PBMR had come to fruition. As a result, nearly R10 billion of state expenditure had been lost, largely on expenditure on consultants for the PBMR, that could have been devoted to education or combating HIV/AIDS. Earthlife Africa – Jhb had seen it in the past, and warned against making the same mistakes again. Moreover, the current procurement process was inadequate. Earthlife Africa – Jhb sought to enable the Committees to be proactive.
Professor Steve Thomas said that there was a mixture of illusion, ignorance, and delusion. Nobody knew what one of these new generation power plants would cost, because no one had completed such a plant as yet. He had complained about the use of consultants for the IRP of 2010 because in 2008 the Government had gone out to tender and obtained real prices from companies. However, subsequently a cost estimate was obtained that was so low that it was clearly ludicrous. One of the attractions of nuclear energy was that it was a big solution to a big problem, but this was an illusion.
Ms Reddy said that Earthlife Africa – Jhb's intention was not to presuppose technology choices for energy, but rather to question the cost-effectiveness of the nuclear option and open a discussion on whether the cost estimates had been accurate and fully considered.
Mr Coenraad Bezuidenhout agreed with Ms Tshabalala that the European crisis was having a big effect, as Europe was South Africa's major trading partner. Obviously South Africa needed to diversify, especially as South Africa was bedeviled by some of the predatory practices of some traders from south-east Asia. Although there were political and economic problems it was essential to open more doors into Africa. National Treasury's help was needed in leveraging the strength of the financial sector. He offered to send, in writing, within a week or so, detailed information on the Manufacturing Circle's partnerships with the Sector Education and Training Authorities (SETAs). It would be ideal if South Africa's economy was inherently competitive and if not a single discount or incentive was necessary. However, the bunched-up increases in electricity tariffs (administered prices) were a problem. The National Energy Regulator of South Africa (NERSA)'s processes needed to be reviewed. In the interim, jobs were being lost, so a short-term measure was required, in other words a discount to the manufacturing sector, and all high-multiplier industries, where jobs could be created. It was pointless to have cheaper electricity for households if the householders could not afford any electricity at all because they had no jobs.
Chairperson de Beer said that tomorrow the Committees would jointly consider their Report, which was to be tabled in both houses on Thursday afternoon.
Mr T Mufamadi (ANC), Chairperson of the Finance Standing Committee, was attending the announcement of the Census 2012 results in Pretoria.
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PC Finance: Public Hearings on the Revised Fiscal Framework and Revenue Proposals
Manufacturing Circle presentation
Earthlife Africa – Johannesburg presentation
Financial and Fiscal Commission (FFC) presentation
Business Unity South Africa (BUSA) presentation
Manufacturing Circle Response to the MTBPS


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A Step-by-Step Guide to Disabling Netflix's Dubbing on Foreign Language Shows
Fans of La Casa de Papel (Money Heist) will want to take notes.
By Emma Dibdin
Tamara ArranzNetflix
Netflix's hit crime drama La Casa de Papel, a.k.a. Money Heist, returned for its third season on July 19.
Since the show's debut, some fans have complained about Netflix's English-language dubbing, and wondered how to watch the show in its original Spanish.
Here's exactly how to turn off dubbing, and turn on subtitles, on Netflix.
Is La Casa de Papel Based on a True Story?
What Does the Money Heist Costume Mean?
If you're anything like us, La Casa de Papel (a.k.a. Money Heist) is your latest Netflix obsession. The story of a gang of charismatic thieves in Spain has always been incredibly addictive and tightly plotted, and season three–which just debuted on July 19–did not disappoint. But there's a critical question which all English-speaking fans of the show have to face: do you watch in English, with dubbed dialogue? Or in Spanish, with English subtitles?
By default, if you're watching on a Netflix account registered in the U.S. (or other predominantly English-speaking countries), foreign shows like La Casa de Papel will play with English dubbing. That is, rather than hearing the actors' original Spanish dialogue, you're hearing a version recorded by English actors which is looped over in place of the original audio. Below you'll find a shot of what the default settings look like on a U.S. account.
If you're intrigued by how this whole dubbing process works on Netflix, the New York Times has a pretty fascinating deep-dive which uses La Casa de Papel as its central example. As the Times points out, dubbing has a historically bad reputation thanks to "decades of schlocky martial arts films and spaghetti Westerns defined by indifferent voice-casting and terrible lip-syncing."
Netflix is raising the bar with its dubbing, and there's no denying that the English voice actors in La Casa de Papel do a pretty phenomenal job. But there's no true substitution for hearing the original actor performing their own dialogue, and many fans are wondering how to do just that.
Here's exactly how to stop Netflix dubbing, and turn on Netflix subtitles instead.
How do you disable dubbing on Netflix?
First, you'll want to access the right side of the toolbar, which looks like this:
On a mobile device, tap anywhere on the screen to bring up the toolbar. If you're on a laptop or PC, just move your mouse over the screen to bring it up.
Next, click on the second button from the right, which looks like a speech bubble. That will bring up the Audio & Subtitles menu. On the left side of that menu, you can choose to view the program you're watching in its original language instead of English audio. In the case of La Casa de Papel, you'll choose European Spanish.
And you're done! The show will now play in its original language, which is perfect if you speak that language. But if you still need the show translated, you'll want to turn on subtitles.
How do you turn on subtitles on Netflix?
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Go back to the same speech bubble symbol to access the Audio & Subtitles menu again, but this time, head to the right side of the menu. From the list of options, you can select English or whichever language you prefer, and then go right ahead and watch the show in its original version. Happy bingeing!
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Canine hypothyroidism is most commonly caused by an autoimmune disease, resulting in not enough circulating thyroid hormones. If thyroid disease is suspected your veterinarian will run several diagnostic tests to rule out other causes and confirm diagnosis.
Treatment involves supplementing the thyroid hormones and will need to be monitored to find the proper levels and alleviate symptoms.
With canine hypothyroidism the symptoms can affect several body systems and your dog will need lifelong treatment to supplement the lacking hormones. In the case of primary hypothyroidism (the most common), proper treatment will resolve symptoms and your dog's prognosis and lifespan will be normal.
Your vet will do some blood tests to check for hormone production coming from the pituitary gland and the thyroid since the pituitary signals the thyroid gland to produce hormones (called a TSH, T3 and T4 tests). The primary test to conduct is a TSH stimulation test, which is considered to be the most reliable way to diagnose the condition. Since the test is expensive, veterinarians might substitute alternatives such as a T4 test and a TSH assay test. If T4 levels are normal, they it is unlikely that a dog is suffering from hypothyroidism.
The urinalysis is used to rule out other causes and to check cholesterol and triglyceride levels. At times the urinalysis will find a urinary tract infection.(3) 75% of dogs suffering from elevated cholesterol are hypothyroid dogs, a condition called hypercholesterolemia.
If TSH levels are higher than normal than it is the pituitary working overtime trying to stimulate a thyroid gland that isn't working. Net, if the pituitary levels are too high and the thyroid levels are too low, then a diagnosis of hypothyroidism will be made.
Testing also looks for underlying causes such as cases where the immune system of your dog is attacking itself called autoimmune thyroiditis. This type of thyroid disease starts between the ages of 2 and 5. Most dogs will be testing for the condition starting in the 4th year of life since this is when the majority start showing antibodies for the disease.
The blood sample should be taken when your dog is otherwise healthy, is not in or approaching a heat cycle, and is not on medications like steroids, anti-inflammatory drugs, or anti-convulsive medications. Usually a 3 month window before testing is needed if any thyroid drug is being administered.
Even if tests are not clear or the underlying cause has not been identified, your veterinarian may choose to start canine hypothyroidism treatment to see if the dog responds to therapy. Other factors that can result in a misdiagnoses include certain commonly used medications.
A veterinarian will use X-rays to detect bone problems in dogs that are potentially suffering from congenital canine hypothyroidism.
An ultrasound test can detect differences in thyroid gland volume and can be used to evaluate hypothyroidism in dogs. It is used in addition to other diagnostic tools.
If a dog has been recently vaccinated, it creates an increase in antibody levels. This can cause a hypothyroid dog to appear as if they have a normal thyroid. To avoid the problem do not conduct any tests within 2 weeks of being vaccinated.
Canine hypothyroidism treatment involves 1x or 2x daily treatments of replacement hormones called L-thyroxine (T4). The level of hormone therapy is based on your dog's weight. Your veterinarian will repeatedly do blood tests until the right level is found. Avoid generic medications since in humans generics have been found to have wide variability in the body's ability to absorb the medication.
Dogs with other metabolic related conditions such as kidney disease or heart disease will start slowly with thyroid supplementation. This dose will be increased gradually over a 3 month period.
If your dog does not respond to thyroxine (T4) treatment, causes include a problem with the prescribed dosage/frequency that your dog takes the medication, an inability by the dog to absorb the medication, or a misdiagnoses, which requires additional testing. A veterinarian might try different brands of hormone to see if the patient reacts differently. If T4 levels are above normal, the medication will be decreased, while low levels indicate that the dose should be increased. It is important to administer medications as prescribed or tests will not provide reliable results.
A month or two after beginning treatment, your veterinarian will want to redo the blood tests to make sure the levels are now within normal range. Blood should be drawn 4 - 6 hours after the morning dose of levothyroxine. Dogs on long-term thyroid medication should have blood work done every 6 - 12 months.
After 6 weeks of canine hypothyroidism treatment, the patient will be tested for thyroid function, followed by testing every 6 to 8 months and then 2x per year. Blood tests are conducted 6 hours after the T4 pill is taken.
Several medications when used along with hormone replacement therapy can increase a dog's metabolism. These include NSAIDs (arthritis, pain relief medications), Glucocorticoids, and furosemide (diuretic used to treat hypertension).
With canine hypothyroidism treatment your dog should resume normal behavior and health in several weeks. When your dog starts to recover, natural remedies can play a supportive role in maintaining thyroid health.
Primary hypothyroidism can be easily controlled with an excellent prognosis. Improvement is seen in as little as one week, with dogs showing improved activity levels and higher levels of being alert. Skin condition should improve as well, with full resolution taking as long as 3 months. The same length of time is needed for neurological issues to clear.
The life expectancy of dogs being treated for primary hypothyroidism is normal. Congenital hypothyroidism has a poor to guarded prognosis.
To restore and maintain thyroid function, a product such as Thyro-Pet could be of help. To help restore any lost hair and overall skin condition, use of a natural tonic such as Skin and Coat Tonic to help restore skin and coat condition and a high quality medicated shampoo such as Snder Labs Richard's Organic.
Clin North Am, Small Animal Pract 2007;37, 617–631.


Taryn Morrissey, American University – Child Care Costs in the U.S.
Child care in the U.S. can cost more than college tuition.
Taryn Morrissey, associate professor in the school of public affairs at American University, explores how to make child care affordable.
Taryn Morrissey is Associate Professor of Public Policy in the School of Public Affairs at American University. Her work focuses on examining and improving public policies for vulnerable children, including early care and education, nutrition assistance, and public health policies. She is a non-resident fellow at the Urban Institute and author of Cradle to Kindergarten: A new plan to combat inequality (Russell Sage, 2017). Ongoing research investigates the effects of family economic instability, neighborhood poverty, and state paid family leave programs on children's health and achievement. From 2013 to 2015, Dr. Morrissey was Senior Advisor in Human Services Policy in the Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation (ASPE) at the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. She worked primarily on President Obama's Early Learning Initiative, including Early Head Start and child care. From 2008 to 2010, Dr. Morrissey served as Health Policy Advisor on the staff of the U.S. Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions (HELP) Committee, first for Chairman Edward Kennedy and then Chairman Tom Harkin, where she worked on the Affordable Care Act (ACA) and other public health issues. She began her career in policy as a Society for Research in Child Development (SRCD) / American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) Congressional Fellow. She received her Ph.D. in Developmental Psychology from Cornell University, and her B.S. from Tufts University.
Child Care Costs in the U.S.
High-quality child care in America is expensive and out of reach for many families. The average cost of child care nationally exceeds US$8,600 per year – more than double the estimated average net tuition and fee price of $4,140 paid by full-time in-state students at public four-year colleges.
Both parents and child care providers are "squeezed" when it comes to child care expenses. Families with children aged 5 years or younger spend an average of 10 percent of their income on child care. Yet child care should actually cost more, not less: the median hourly wage for child care workers was only $10.18 in 2016 – less than the median hourly wage of $10.45 for parking lot attendants. This despite the reams of research showing that the most rapid period of learning and brain development takes place during the first three years of life.
So what can be done to both improve the quality and increase the affordability of child care? My research recommends a mix of paid parental leave, enhanced child care subsidies, universal preschool and a reimagined Head Start to begin at or before birth. My coauthors and I argue that we need to build on the successes of the states and cities that have created public preschool programs and paid family leave programs. What warrants much greater investment is the gap between age 8 weeks – when parental leave ends – and ages 3 or 4, when preschool begins. The additional $2.9 billion for the Child Care and Development Block Grant program included in the recent budget deal is a great first step for investing in the youngest Americans.
States could use these funds to support child care for infants and toddlers, the group for whom care is most expensive and hardest to find.
As elected officials debate potential investments in infrastructure, child care should be seen as an essential part of the equation.
Do you have more information on how your plan would work for families? Is this plan based on income eligibility – because the middle class is often forgotten.


text:
Q: space between item and paragraph in enumerate I'm writing a list in this form:
\begin{enumerate}
\item Question 1...
\item[a)] Something 1...
\item[b)] Something 2...

\item Question 2...
\item[a)] Something 3...
\item[b)] Something 4...

\item Question 3...
\item[a)] Something 5...
\item[b)] Something 6...

... and so on.

\end{enumerate}

I'd like to control the spaces between items in a way that the spaces between questions are different from that between question and items a), b). Is it possible?

A: Use nested enumerate levels, the spacing is adapted to the nesting level then.
If the enumitem package is used, the labels of the 2nd level can be adjusted without using \item[a)] explicitly.
The separation of items can be set with the itemsep=... option (not done here, however)
(Or use the enumerate package for label changes only -- see the documentation please).
Side note: Using a proper answers etc. package would increase the usability of the document.
\documentclass{article}

\usepackage{enumitem}

% Change the labels of the second level to use lower case letters of type a)  -- default is (a) etc.
\setlist[enumerate,2]{label={\alph*)}}

\begin{document}
\begin{enumerate}
\item Question 1...
\begin{enumerate}
\item Something 1...
\item Something 2...
\end{enumerate}
\item Question 2...
\begin{enumerate}
\item Something 3...
\item Something 4...
\end{enumerate}
\item Question 3...
\begin{enumerate}
\item Something 5...
\item Something 6...
\end{enumerate}
\end{enumerate}

\end{document}

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


Rhiann and Haley photographed this wedding at Sawyer Gardens in Wapato, WA. Abby and Shane are two very fun loving, well suited people and their wedding day was marked by laughter, love and family. Their wedding colors were white, ivory, burlap, blush pink and coral. Abby and Shane have been together for five years. Rhiann commented, "They both laughed easily and had a great sense of humor. All the people at their wedding interacted with one another as if they had all known each other for years. It gave a great family feel to the day."
Reflecting on this wedding day, this couple and the love that is apparent even through the photographs, one can easily read the admiration and affection for each other displayed in the eyes of Abby and Shane. As stated above, family was a central component to the wedding day. Shane's daughter Lily was a huge part of the ceremony. The bride and groom wrote vows to her, and she wrote vows to them. Shane and Lily had a father daughter dance and there was a specific photo time for the three of them.
All in all, the day was splendid. Blooming Elegance created the beautiful floral designs, Kerri's Cakes made the delicious wedding cake, Platinum Entertainment with DJ Jesse helped the party continue and Unique Clicks Photobooth provided fun memories for the couple and the guests. Catering was provided by the Burger Ranch (Abby's family's business).
Abby and Shane, we celebrate your marriage along with the two of you, your friends and family! Wishing you the best!
For more fun photos of Abby and Shane, Check out their fun engagement session!
Rhiann and Haley photographed this wedding at Ritter Farms in Cle Elum, WA. Lauren and Bryan's wedding colors were peach, coral, grey and sage green and they were brilliantly displayed through the beautiful floral arrangements done by John Throne from Countryside Floral. The first time Bryan saw Lauren on their wedding day was as she was walking down the isle, and their joy was evident!
Rhiann commented, "This couple was brought together over great distance. They are so at peace with each other and easily get lost in conversation together. It was so sweet to watch. At the ceremony, the groom kept his eyes closed until he knew she was walking down the isle. Then he opened them and it was just perfect. Their vows were hand written and very emotional for everyone in attendance. So heartfelt."
Other fun details of the wedding included the individualized bridesmaids coffee mugs from the bride. Every single mug was different. The wedding dress was the bride's mom's wedding dress that they had altered. All but one of the groomsmen traveled from New York to be there. The couple also set out notebooks on each of the tables at their reception that guests were to write in, and then the couple plans to read them on different anniversaries.
It is always a pleasure to photograph a wedding at the beautiful American Homestead out in Naches, WA. There are so many beautiful photography spots and the open field, aspen grove and surround mountains creates such a classic beauty and rustic look.
We are reaching the end of another full wedding season, and though we have photographed many 2015 weddings already, there is always something unique and special about each one that keeps you on your toes, soaking in the moments, and eager to capture the individualized moments of each marriage. Katie and Bobby seemed to be so content and thrilled to be getting married! The groom was fun-loving, caring and passionate, and the bride was lovely, friendly and caring. Katie is a PE teacher and Bobby works in their family business. They met in high school and started dating several years later. They were close with their families and both families obviously cherished the joy of the day and the union of Katie and Bobby.
Their wedding ceremony was extremely meaningful. Their Grandpa performed the ceremony and he was both entertaining, engaging, and spoke very meaningful words. It was one of the most beautiful and God-honoring ceremonies we have experienced. The couple ended their ceremony with communion, and then invited their family up to surround them in a prayer circle.
More fun details that set this wedding apart include the beautiful personalized wooden ring boxes, the fact that friends and family made all of the floral arrangements, the bride wore her mom's wedding garter and her mom's wedding bracelet, and the bride's mom was her matron of honor. It also happened to be one of the hottest days we have had in the area for a long time, but they timed it just right, so that the ceremony started just seconds after the sun disappeared behind the hill, creating a warm and comfortable temperature for the remainder of the day. Another interesting fact is that there are two well known and very talented photography companies within the family. The groom's sister and her husband are the owners of O'Malley Photographers and the groom's cousin is the owner of Michael Fisk Photography. It was an honor to photograph Katie and Bobby's wedding and let the family sit back and enjoy the day.
Thanks for letting us be part of your wedding Katie and Bobby! May God richly bless you!
Tavis and Amy photographed this wedding at Rock Creek Gardens in Puyallup, WA. We had the pleasure of working with Baked, the cake and cupcake artist, with floral artist Shannon Radich, with Sounds Unlimited and with C.I. Shenanigans the phenomenal caterer.
The venue and the weather couldn't have been any more perfect! There was an abundance of beautiful shaded, private foresty areas for portraits, as well as tons of beautiful landscaping and rocks. It was a true picturesque garden. We didn't have wind or rain and it was the perfect temperature.
Kate and Jared are best friends that adore each other. Their day was filled with joy, love, respect and passion. Both sets of parents have been married around 30 years and are awesome examples of love. You could feel the happiness and support all around amongst their families. We did a special first look with Kate's dad as well, while mom and sister were watching from a distance.
Kate wore a Seahawks garter which was a surprise for Jared. This wedding also had tons of beautiful flower arrangements designed by their friend from Ellensburg who makes silk floral arrangements. They looked great! Their wedding theme was Tiffany blue, blush pink and some bling accents. Kate's ring was very beautiful and ornately detailed. Kate and Jared met at the Starlight in Ellensburg, and that is also where they got engaged!
During the ceremony, everyone got a huge laugh when the officiant said, "Oh, I just got a text, I need to take that...Oh! It's a text from Jesus." And then he said something like... "Jesus says you're going to have a great life together!"
Kate and Jared! We agree with this text from Jesus! ;) May you have a fabulous honeymoon and a blessed marriage!


What you will see on the website below are no ordinary timelapse movies. Notice that everything from the sun to the shadows is clear at the same time -- all thanks to a relatively new kind of photography called HDR.
San Francisco photographer Chad Richard is one of only a handful of people in the world engaged in it.
"When you're setting up," Chad laughs, "you never know what you're going to get. You come out here, you set up in the dark, you point your camera where you think you want to be pointed, and you hope nature's going to do what you want it to do. But you never know how things are going to turn out."
Photographers face this problem all the time: What if you have a bright background, but your subject is in the shadow? Do you take a picture exposing for the bright part? Or take a picture to make out what's in the shadow? The secret is to take one of each.
Chad programs his camera like a computer. Every few seconds, it snaps seven pictures almost at once, each one at a different exposure. At the end of an hour, he has 7,000 images. Later, special software combines every seven pictures into a single perfectly exposed picture.
"These seven images are merged together into one HDR image, using Photomatix," Chad explains.
That leaves him with 1,000 pictures, which he makes into a movie.
"It's always about sunrise or sunset. It's definitely an early 'sport'. But, it's great to be outside, watch the sun rise. It's a wonderful place to be."
As this technology becomes more common, look for more HDR movies in commercials and feature films.