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Manila on the Chinese bandwagon
The Philippines becomes the first Indo-Pacific country to declare itself for Beijing
On the geopolitics of the Indo-Pacific, I have long argued that "the small- and medium-sized countries of the region will prefer a balance where no single power dominates over them. If they do not see this forthcoming, they are likely to join the stronger side."
Rodrigo Duterte, the president of the Philippines, appears to have decided that that stronger side is China.
"America has lost now. I've realigned myself in your ideological flow," he said at a business forum in Beijing on Thursday. "And maybe I will also go to Russia to talk to Putin and tell him that there are three of us against the world: China, Philippines and Russia. It's the only way." [CNN]
There were indications of this for the last few months, but the manner in which he announced a "separation" from the United States, the Philippines' treaty ally since 1951, could not have been more designed to ingratiate Beijing, his newfound benefactor. Mr Duterte calculates — correctly, in all likelihood — that China will now shower the Philippines with exemplary largesse. It is in Beijing's interests to demonstrate that those who decide to join the Chinese side will be rewarded, as long as they are willing to ignore some trifling territorial disputes and international arbitration verdicts.
I have also argued that there is a Chinese wedge between ASEAN states that have a dispute with Beijing and those that don't. That wedge has just gotten deeper and wider. The ASEAN agenda on maritime cooperation is now in question, as Philippines joins other pro-China ASEAN members in being uninterested in confronting China. Vietnam, in particular, will be under a lot more pressure.
The Philippines remains a pro-American country. It is also likely that parts of the country's security establishment have deep links with the US armed forces. How Mr Duterte's policy will go down with the people and the security establishment remains to be seen.
Author Nitin PaiPosted on 20th October 2016 20th October 2016 Categories Foreign AffairsTags America, ASEAN, Asia, Asia Pacific, Asian Balance, balance of power, China, East Asia, East Asia Summit, Foreign Affairs, geopolitics, international law, international relations, international security, maritime, maritime balance, Middle Kingdom, statecraft, United States
1 thought on "Manila on the Chinese bandwagon"
Kurian Kallarakal says:
28th October 2016 at 13:44
In my view this is a Duterte decision more than a Philippines gov decision. At the moment Duterte was able to make this big strategic call is purely based on his local popularity. Philippines has very limited leverage over China now, its probably going to be showered with largess as mentioned with limited long term benefits. If Duterte was 'breaking away' from American influence he is going to be left with less relative autonomy in Asia. Duterte gamble is bound to fail in my view, as soon as the initial honeymoon is over for the electorate when they see there is limited change in crime and economic situation and if ever China pushes the boundaries again the S China sea Duterte will probably need American guns to protect him (rather Philippines). Foreign policy changes are not made from the heart but from the bank (ie economics). Philippines is not mature economy to make this drastic call a the moment. last point – china as a nation is not seen as favorably among its population compared to America, this matters in a democracy. Only nation that has a favorable view of the Chinese is Pakistan and I will not compare the two at this point.
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Why ETFs Seen Soaring 10-Fold to $50 Trillion Will Steamroll Skeptics
The market for ETFs has seen explosive growth in the past decade, with assets under management (AUM) rising more than 5-fold to an estimated $4.3 trillion this year and projected to reach $5.3 trillion by the end of 2020. But the industry's growth in the next decade may far eclipse the previous one. Assets under management could rise by nearly 12-fold to $50 trillion by 2030, according to a recent note from Bank of America.
The bold forecast by BofA, implying annual growth of about 25% from 2019 to 2030, better than nearly 19% annually from 2009 to 2019, defies skeptics who believe that an industry shakeout, government regulations, and new rivals could impair the growth of ETFs. Moreover, $50 trillion in AUM would be more than double the current size of the U.S. economy, given that annualized U.S. GDP was $21.5 trillion in Q3 2019.
Bank of America projects even more rapid growth for ETFs ahead.
Skeptics see this projection as overly optimistic.
ETFs face increasing regulatory scrutiny and competitive challenges.
How ETF holders behave in the next market decline is a big unknown.
As more evidence of how aggressive the prediction from BofA is, Jim Ross, one of the founders of the ETF industry, predicted in 2018 that worldwide ETF AUM could reach $25 trillion by the end of 2025. Ross, a longtime executive at leading ETF sponsor State Street Corp. (STT), was a key figure in the design and 1993 launch of the first U.S.-listed ETF, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY). On the other hand, BofA's projection covers 5 additional years.
The growth of ETFs, BofA observes, is being driven by "increased awareness" among investors of key advantages offered by these investment vehicles, such as tax efficiency, low cost, liquidity, and transparency. Stable interest rates, expectations of positive returns on stocks, and narrow credit spreads also could help to spur additional ETF growth in 2020, per BofA.
Moreover, the vast majority of ETFs are passive investment vehicles that track market indices. As more costly actively managed funds increasingly underperform the indices, investors are abandoning them for cheaper passive alternatives, mainly ETFs, that also have been delivering better returns on average.
As noted above, BofA's forecast of annual growth averaging 25% over the next decade is very aggressive in itself, never mind that it is above the 19% rate recorded over the prior decade. "The numbers for launches and closures suggest a stable and mature industry that has already seen its most dramatic growth," is the conclusion of a report by ETF.com. Indeed, the industry appears to be in period of shakeout. Smaller players that lack economies of scale are closing at a rising rate, and it's becoming increasingly difficult for any new fund to reach profitable scale.
The U.S. ETF market also is highly concentrated, with the top 3 players controlling nearly $3.5 trillion in AUM, or more than 80% of the total. These are BlackRock Inc. (BLK), The Vanguard Group, and State Street Corp.
The dominant combined position of these 3 issuers, and the potential for them to stifle competition, has the attention of regulators, especially those in the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). "I am concerned about what it will mean for investors--particularly Main Street investors--if the variety and choice offered by small and midsize asset managers become lost in a wave of consolidation and fee compression," Dalia Blass, director of the SEC's investment management division, remarked at an Investment Company Institute (ICI) conference in March.
Another headwind for ETFs may be private capital funds, including private equity, venture capital, infrastructure, real estate, and private debt funds. These vehicles have been attracting new money from investors at about double the rate of ETFs. Whether this poses a long-term risk to future ETF growth is unclear.
Finally, there is widespread concern that a wave of selling by panicked holders of passive ETFs could turn a modest market selloff into a full-fledged crash. Seeing "an increased tail risk of a sell-off in the market becoming disorderly," Inigo Fraser-Jenkins, head of global quantitative and European equity strategy at Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., has warned, "we basically do not know what will happen when thousands of investors reach for their smart phones and try to sell positions that they have in passive ETF products."
InvestmentNews. "Bank of America sees ETF market hitting $50 trillion in next decade," Accessed December 17, 2019.
Business Insider. "The ETF market will hit $50 trillion by 2030, Bank of America says," Accessed December 17, 2019.
Bloomberg. "A $50 Trillion ETF Market? BofA Says It Could Happen Next Decade," Accessed December 17, 2019.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. "Gross Domestic Product (GDP)," Accessed December 17, 2019.
Investopedia. "$4 Trillion ETF Industry Faces Shakeout in 'Oversaturated Market'," Accessed December 17, 2019.
ETF.com. "ETF League Table as of Dec. 11, 2019," Accessed December 17, 2019.
Investopedia. "Who Are the ETF Giants?," Accessed December 17, 2019.
Investopedia. "Could Private Markets Threaten the ETF Industry?," Accessed December 17, 2019.
Investopedia. "Why Passive ETFs Face Big Risks in Liquidity Crisis," Accessed December 17, 2019.
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redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


Welcome to Yanked! Pet Skills, the only live, interactive pet talent show on the internet!
Talented pets compete live from home or the dog park via webcams, iPhones and iPads. Viewers watch on their internet-connected devices and vote on the acts, narrowing down the performances until there's a winner.
If you have a pet who can do fun tricks, or love supercute animals, this is the show for you!


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Music » Concert Preview
Chicago rockers Peel breathe new life into old sounds on Never Not Dead
by Leor Galil
Andrew Cohen Peel
RPeel, Furr, Strange Lovelies
Sun 4/29, 8 PM, Schubas, 3159 N. Southport, free
Chicago foursome Peel play the kind of swashbuckling rippers that demand to be called "rock 'n' roll" (don't even think about using the whole "and" in there) and that sound like they could've poured out of a jukebox four or five decades ago, depending on the tune. At least, that's the case on their new self-released EP, Never Not Dead, which they celebrate tonight. The recording follows Peel's second album, September's Goes Bananas (get it?), and it shows they've decided to crank up the volume on their feel-good rock and ratchet up the assault a bit too. They pull together various strains of six-string pop, including freewheeling anthems for 1950s greasers ("Teenage Rock & Roll Singer") and shoegaze-style melodies, though the latter sound clearer and more energetic than the 80s UK bands that influenced them. No matter the era or mood they draw from, Peel capture the frisson of a close-knit group of musicians throwing ideas together, and they flirt with combustion without letting that intensity get in the way of a good hook. They exemplify that on opener "Wet Work," a track that's so rambunctious it sounds like their instruments have come alive and are wrestling for control of the song. v
Goes Bananas by PEEL
Concert Preview Peel Goes Bananas Recommended


Visions is a collection of surreal photography created as a collaboration between myself and Laurie Otto. Inspired by the human imagination, and the dreaming state, Laurie and I worked together to construct poetic narratives that seem to take place somewhere between reality and fantasy.
Each image is created by blending together many separate exposures, some being made up of 50 exposures or more. This allows the final product to be printed very large yet still contain great detail. Within this work, you are being told only fractions of a story and left to fill in the gaps with your own imagination.


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5 Big Star Wars: The Rise Of Skywalker Questions We Have After The Triple Force Friday Reveals
By Dirk Libbey published 27 September 19
It's not easy being a Star Wars fan right now. Everything we've been a fan of since 1977 is coming to a close in just a couple short months with Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker. On the one hand, we don't want to know anything about what's going to happen until the movie starts and we're seated in the theater. At the same time, we have all of the questions. We have only the smallest puzzle pieces, and we have no idea what the picture is even supposed to be.
Quite frequently, intentionally or otherwise, licensed merchandise has been known to reveal answers to some of a movie's biggest questions. And so, with yesterday's preview of Triple Force Friday, it wouldn't have been surprising if we'd received a few of those answers, and yet, all the day created was more questions. I got to attend the preview event at Lucasfilm in San Francisco myself to look for answers, but now here are all the questions we now have after everything I saw, and also didn't see.
Who Is Boolio?
While we would have thought we'd known the names of all the most important characters that will appear in Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, yesterday's event revealed a couple more who are apparently important enough that they'll be getting their own merchandise. One that was brought up more than once during yesterday's livestream was an alien named Boolio. He sort of resembles a Minotaur, as he has large, bull like horns, but while everybody made a point to reveal Boolio's existence, they were just as sure to say nothing about him.
All we can surmise about Boolio from what we know is that he (or she?) is in some way connected to the Millennium Falcon. The Boolio minfig will be one of several included in the upcoming LEGO set for the Falcon. The rest of the characters included, Lando, Chewbacca, etc. make sense, but Boolio is an X-factor. Perhaps he's a new member of the Resistance who has been hired on to help crew the Falcon? Han and Chewie never needed help, but perhaps, with Rey having a lot on her plate, Chewie now has his own copilot?
Who is Babu Frik?
The other new character which Triple Force Friday revealed was a little guy named Babu Frik. Or at least, he appears to be little. We're assuming that his stature is accurate relative to C-3PO, which makes him incredibly tiny. He looks like the toy that, for us, he actually is.
In the case of this character, he was revealed to be a droid builder, but why he's important is far from clear. Is he the creator of D-O, the new tiny droid that we've seen alongside BB-8? A few new astromech droid units were also included among the Triple Force Friday toys I saw. They had names like R2-SHP, R6-LE5, and R5 2JE. Did Babu Frick build any of them? And if he did, how will these droids play into The Rise of Skywalker? Perhaps, since Babu is included with the Black Series figure of C-3PO, he has something to do with what causes his eyes to turn red.
Why Is Zorri Bliss Flying A Y-Wing?
We don't know much about Zorri Bliss, the character that Keri Russell will portray in The Rise of Skywalke, beyond that name. Although, clearly, her look is designed to make us think of characters like Boba Fett, who keep their faces covered because they are up to no good. However, it looks like Bliss might be one of the good guys, as her LEGO fig is included with the new Y-wing set, alongside Poe Dameron. And she's even flying it.
At the preview I attended Bliss' figure was sitting in the pilot's chair, which seems odd. She certainly doesn't look like a Resistance pilot, and even if Zorri Bliss is meant to be a Han Solo-like rogue, fighting for the good guys, you still wouldn't expect her to be piloting one of the Resistance's crafts. She'd have her own ship, right? Of course, it looks like there's also a Stormtrooper figure included with this set, so perhaps this setup was meant to misdirect.
Why Does Jannah Have a Bow And Arrow?
While we've seen Naomi Ackie's character of Jannah a couple of times, we don't know much of anything about her. It appears that her home is the rocky desert planet throwing a party that we've seen in the trailers, but that doesn't explain why she joins our heroes or ends up on the Millennium Falcon with Finn.
However, we now have an even bigger question about who Jannah is, because her weapon of choice is apparently a bow and arrow. The Star Wars universe has always been this weird mix of new that looks ancient. People are flying among the stars, but places like Tatooine look less than futuristic. Still, everybody who has a weapon carries a blaster of some sort, so why does this one character have a piece of technology that is centuries old even on our own planet? Does it have technological features? Does it shoot laser arrows?
Where Were Dark Rey, The Emperor, and The Knights of Ren?
While the products that I saw yesterday raised a number of questions, there are also questions to be asked because of what we did not see. Some of the most talked about characters that fans are wondering about were nowhere to be found. The Emperor, who will be making his return to the Star Wars franchise in The Rise of Skywalker, and the "Sith" version of Rey that was teased in the D23 footage. This was also the case with the Knights of Ren, who have also been confirmed for the movie. Not only were no products dealing with any of them shown, none of those characters was even mentioned.
But why not? We know all of them exist. That information is very public, and so it's not like seeing them as action figures would have been that surprising. Even if "Dark Rey" is nothing more than a vision, and not technically a real character. Even if the Emperor is nothing more than a Force Ghost, or the Knights of Ren show up in a flashback, it doesn't mean they won't be getting their own toys. There's no way in hell that Dark Rey isn't getting an action figure. Simply showing them would have revealed nothing, so why weren't they there?
Of course, while we're asking these questions, we don't really want answers. Some of these answers probably aren't even all that important, while others likely deal with the core of how the Skywalker Saga will come to a close. Even finding out which is which would reveal more than we really want to know. We'll do our best to be patient, and wait until December 20.
Dirk Libbey
CinemaBlend's resident theme park junkie and amateur Disney historian. Armchair Imagineer. Epcot Stan. Future Club 33 Member.
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Arts|Jacqueline Kennedy's Notes for Dallas Are Found, Starting a Quiet Tug of War
Jacqueline Kennedy in Dallas on Nov. 22, 1963.CreditCreditCecil Stoughton/The White House, via John F. Kennedy Presidential Library
Jacqueline Kennedy's Notes for Dallas Are Found, Starting a Quiet Tug of War
Her packing list for the trip in November 1963 surfaced three years ago. Since then, it has sat at the Kennedy library: unnoticed, unpublicized — and perhaps off-limits.
Many people fantasize about a valuable piece of history emerging unexpectedly out of a trunk. For Gil Wells, something like that happened in the summer of 2015.
His 79-year-old godmother, who had dementia, had been bringing photographs and papers out of her room to puzzle over since she moved into his home outside Richmond, Va., several months earlier. One day, she emerged with a plastic sleeve holding two small sheets of White House notepaper.
Mr. Wells pulled them out, turned one sheet over and stopped cold.
"I saw 'Nov. 22' and 'pink and navy Chanel suit,'" he recalled. "I just got the sickest feeling in my stomach."
A four-page packing list, written by Mrs. Kennedy before the 1963 trip to Texas, surfaced recently. It shows her schedule, along with carefully planned outfits for each stop.CreditVia Gil Wells
The handwriting was Jacqueline Kennedy's, and the notes were a list she had drawn up before the fateful trip to Dallas in November 1963. Prepared for her personal assistant, Providencia Paredes, the document detailed Mrs. Kennedy's hour-by-hour schedule alongside the clothes and accessories to be packed, including the now-iconic pink ensemble she was wearing when her husband was assassinated as well as carefully planned outfits for parts of the trip that never happened.
Mr. Wells formally deeded the notes to the United States government in March 2016. Since then, they have been housed at the John F. Kennedy Presidential Library and Museum in Boston: unnoticed, unpublicized — and perhaps off-limits.
After the donation, an archivist twice told Mr. Wells that Mrs. Kennedy's notes could not be made public since her daughter, Caroline Kennedy, had not given permission. It was a condition that went unmentioned in his donor agreement, and one that didn't sit well with him.
"I feel like I was bamboozled," he said in January, after sending a scan of the packing list to The New York Times.
But after an inquiry from The Times, library officials said that the archivist had been mistaken, and that Mrs. Kennedy's list was "slated to be opened ASAP."
An excerpt from the list shows the now-famous pink suit Mrs. Kennedy was wearing when her husband was assassinated. The suit is now owned by the National Archives and Records Administration, and cannot be seen before 2103.CreditVia Gil Wells
The confusion around the document reflects complicated questions of ownership and archival ethics, not to mention the tangled politics of presidential libraries, government-run institutions where the mission of preserving and presenting impartial history can collide with the legacy-burnishing agendas of family members, political loyalists and the private foundations that help pay the bills.
Those politics are especially complicated at the Kennedy library, which has been without a permanent director since 2015, when its leader, a federal employee, resigned after clashes with the chief executive of the library's foundation. Even before that, researchers have long contended with a notoriously complex and often opaque thicket of access restrictions.
"More than any other presidential library, the Kennedy library has been known for decades to be restrictive and selective when it comes to who gets to see what," said Anthony Clark, the author of "The Last Campaign: How Presidents Rewrite History, Run for Posterity and Enshrine Their Legacies."
The Kennedy library, which is owned and operated by the National Archives and Records Administration, opened in 1979 in a soaring, I.M. Pei-designed structure overlooking Boston Harbor. Downstairs, in the museum galleries, visitors wind their way through relic-filled exhibits telling the story of the president's life from childhood to the assassination — an event commemorated in a small, almost chapel-like gallery containing only a single line of text: the date "November 22, 1963."
Mrs. Kennedy, still wearing the pink suit, with Lyndon B. Johnson as he is sworn in as president.CreditCecil Stoughton/The White House
Upstairs, the research library houses some 400 collections totaling about 25 million pages of documents, including the papers of President Kennedy and various members of the Kennedy family.
Mrs. Kennedy's personal papers, donated to the library by her and her heirs between 1979 and 2010, have been among the most closely protected, in keeping with her famous desire for privacy, of which Caroline Kennedy is known to be a fierce guardian. In 2014, an auction of Mrs. Kennedy's deeply personal letters to an Irish priest was halted, and the letters were returned to the family after lawyers for her daughter objected.
In 2012, the library began opening papers relating to her official duties as first lady, but her personal letters remain closed, under the terms of a 2009 deed that gives Caroline Kennedy broad discretion in determining what is released. (Ms. Kennedy declined to comment for this story.)
Meanwhile, the tapes of Jacqueline Kennedy's interviews for William Manchester's book "The Death of the President," the publication of which she sued to halt, are sealed until 2067. And the blood-spattered pink suit itself, kept in a vault near Washington, D.C., is to be kept from view at least until 2103.
"We know that Jackie didn't want anything to be seen," said Barbara Leaming, who has written biographies of both President Kennedy and Mrs. Kennedy. "But with the assassination, you're dealing with just about the most highly charged material in the library."
The list shows carefully planned outfits like this white suit Mrs. Kennedy wore on Nov. 21, as well as ensembles for events that never happened.CreditArt Rickerby/The LIFE Picture Collection, via Getty Images
That's a stark contrast to the auction market, where buyers snap up anything relating to the former first lady, from her letters to her underwear.
John Reznikoff, a Connecticut-based dealer who has sold many Kennedy-related items, including the white Lincoln in which the Kennedys rode in Fort Worth before flying to Dallas, estimated that the notes Mr. Wells donated might have fetched as much as $75,000.
"It's a really sexy document," he said. "It has everything: her poise, her planning, her status as a fashion icon and, of course, the dark side."
Mr. Wells, 54, who died unexpectedly in May following a medical procedure, was no stranger to Mrs. Kennedy's mystique or its market value. When this reporter visited him at home, he pointed out a plate with an American eagle motif hanging on the wall — one of two he claimed to have bought at the blockbuster estate sale Mrs. Kennedy's children held at Sotheby's after her death in 1994.
What Jackie Kennedy's notes say about her style
Jackie Kennedy's Packing List for Texas, Chic and Poignant
Mr. Wells, who worked as a caterer, and his sister sat at a table with their godmother, Shirley Ann Conover, and a housemate, mixing their own family stories with knowing gossip about various Kennedys. After the document surfaced, they recalled, they had tucked it inside a book about the former first lady for safekeeping.
"I've always been fascinated by her," Mr. Wells said.
Just how Ms. Conover, a former employee of the Department of Veterans Affairs, came to have the notes is unclear. During the visit, she offered fragmented memories of her childhood in an orphanage in Washington and of her old apartment near the Russian Embassy, where she lived until moving in with Mr. Wells.
Mr. Wells said that Ms. Conover might have known Ms. Paredes, who died in 2015, possibly through a cousin. Ms. Conover said she wasn't sure. But asked if she agreed with the decision to donate the document to the Kennedy library, rather than try to sell it, she was emphatic.
She didn't want money, she said. "It's not ours," she added. "It's theirs."
The list was prepared for Mrs. Kennedy's personal assistant, Providencia Paredes, known as Provy, who died in 2015.CreditVia Gil Wells
But even after the donation, Mr. Wells continued to stew about the notes, which he said he had wanted the library to put on display.
Earlier this year, after he inquired for a second time about their status, Stephen Plotkin, a longtime archivist at the library, reiterated that the document could not be made available, even to researchers, without permission from Caroline Kennedy, who controls her mother's copyrights.
"Although we have sought this permission conscientiously, we have received no reply from her," Mr. Plotkin said. "We will continue to ask that the notes be open to research, but beyond that there is not anything more we can do."
Officials at several other archives said they found the invocation of copyright odd. "Intellectual property rights restrict how items can be used, not whether scholars can look at them," said Bob Clark, the former acting director of the Franklin D. Roosevelt Presidential Library and Museum in Hyde Park, N.Y.
But Kennedy library officials now say Mr. Plotkin misspoke. When The Times emailed him about the document, a response came instead from Rachel Day Flor, deputy director of the John F. Kennedy Library Foundation, the private nonprofit organization that raises money for the library. The document had never been closed, she said, but was simply part of a large backlog of miscellaneous donations that is currently being cataloged.
The Kennedy Library in Boston holds some 25 million pages of documents. The former first lady's personal papers are among the most heavily restricted materials.CreditCharlie Mahoney for The New York Times
The library's director of archives, Karen Abramson, speaking in a conference call joined by Ms. Flor, reiterated that the notes would be opened. Caroline Kennedy had been informed about the notes before they were donated, Ms. Abramson added by email, "but has never expressed any concerns" about opening them for research.
To add to the tangle, Ms. Abramson also suggested that the document might have been improperly removed from the White House by Ms. Paredes, and therefore could be seen as having remained the property of Mrs. Kennedy, rather than being Mr. Wells's to give.
"This item was given to us by someone who happened to have it in their possession," she said. "There could be some debate about whether the family owned this," she said, referring to Mrs. Kennedy's family, "or we did."
Whatever the provenance of the document, it will be kept in perpetuity at the library. Ms. Leaming, whose recent biography of the former first lady argued that she developed post-traumatic stress disorder after the assassination, said she understood any protectiveness around such an artifact — innocuous, yet charged with grim significance.
"You have to be a human being and have sympathy," she said. "The assassination is something she wanted to forget. But libraries are about memory."
Susan Beachy contributed research.
Correction: July 2, 2018
An earlier version of this article misstated where the Kennedys rode in a white Lincoln during their November 1963 trip to Texas. It was in Fort Worth, not Dallas.
Jennifer Schuessler is a culture reporter covering intellectual life and the world of ideas. She is based in New York. @jennyschuessler
A version of this article appears in print on , Section C, Page 1 of the New York edition with the headline: Notes Written Right Before Life Changed. Order Reprints | Today's Paper | Subscribe


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\section{\uppercase{Introduction}}
\label{sec:introduction}

\noindent 	Demand forecasting is the concept of predicting the quantity of a product that consumers will purchase during a specific time period.	 Predicting right demand of a product is an important phenomenon in terms of space, time and money for the sellers.  Sellers may have limited time or need to sell their products as soon as possible due to the storage and money restrictions. Therefore demand of a product depends on many factors such as price, popularity, time, space etc. Forecasting demand is being hard when the number of factors increases. Demand prediction is also closely related with seller revenue. If sellers store much more product than the demand then this may lead to surplus \cite{miller1988effects}. On the other hand storing less product in order to save inventory costs when the product has high demand will cause less revenue. Because of these and many more reasons, demand forecasting has become an interesting and important topic for researchers in many areas
such as water demand prediction \cite{an1996discovering}, data center application \cite{gmach2007workload} and energy demand prediction \cite{srinivasan2008energy}.

\begin{figure*}
  \includegraphics[width=\textwidth]{figures/stackedGeneralization.pdf}
  \caption{General System Schema}
   \label{fig:fig1}
\end{figure*}

	 The rest of the paper is organized as follows:Section 2 discusses related work and section 3 describe methodology. In section 5 we describe our experimental results and data definitions. In section 6 we conclude this work and future work.

	\section{RELATED WORK}
\noindent In literature, the research studies on demand forecasting can be grouped into three main categories: (1) Statistical Methods; (2) Artificial Intelligence Methods; (3) Htybrid Methods.
		 \newline
	\textbf{\emph{Statistical Methods:}} Linear regression, regression tree, moving average, weighted average, bayesian analysis are just some of statistical methods for demand forecasting \cite{liu2013sales}. Johnson et al. used regression trees to predict demand due to its simplicity and interpretability \cite{johnson2014analytics}. They applied demand prediction on data given by an online retailer web company named as Rue La La. The web site consists of several events which are changing within 1-4 days interval from different departments. Each event has multiple products called "style" and each product has different items. Items are typical products that have different properties such as size and color. Because of the price is set at style level, they aggregate items at style level and use different regression models for each department. Ediger and Akar used Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) methods to predict future energy demand of Turkey from 2005 to 2020 \cite{ediger2007arima}. Also Lim and McAleer used ARIMA for travel demand forecasting \cite{lim2002time}. \newline
	Although basic implementation and simple interpretation of statistical methods, different approaches are applied for demand forecasting such as Artificial Intelligence (AI) and hybrid methods.\newline
	\textbf{\emph{AI Methods:}} AI methods are commonly used in literature for demand forecasting due to their primary advantage of being efficient and accurate \cite{chang2006fuzzy}, \cite{gutierrez2008lumpy}, \cite{zhang1998forecasting}, \cite{yoo1999short}. Frank et al. used Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) to predict women's apparel sales and ANN outperformed two statistical based  models \cite{frank2003forecasting}. Sun et al. proposed a novel extreme learning machine which is a type of neural network for sales forecasting. The proposed methods outperformed traditional neural networks for sales forecasting \cite{sun2008sales}.\newline
	\textbf{\emph{Hybrid Methods:}} Another method of forecasting sales or demands is hybrid methods. Hybrid methods utilize more than one method and use the strength of these methods. Zhang used ARIMA and ANN hybrid methodology in time series forecasting and proposed a method that achieved more accuracy than the methods when they were used separately \cite{zhang2003time}. In addition to hybrid models, there has been some studies where fuzzy logic is used for demand forecasting \cite{aburto2007improved}, \cite{thomassey2002short}, \cite{vroman1998fuzzy}.

Thus far, many researchers focused on different statistical, AI and hybrid methods for forecasting problem. But Islek and Gunduz Oguducu proposed a state-of-art method that is based on stack generalization on the problem of forecasting demand of warehouses and their model decreased the error rate using proposed method \cite{islek}. On the contrary, in this paper we use different statistical methods and compare their results with stack generalization method which uses these methods as sub-level learners.
\section{METHODOLOGY}
\noindent This section describes the methodology and techniques used to solve demand prediction problem.

	\subsection{Stacked Generalization}
\noindent Stacked generalization (SG) is one of the ensemble methods applied in machine learning which use multiple learning algorithms to improve the predictive performance. It is based on training a learning algorithm to combine the predictions of the learning algorithms involved instead of selecting a single learning algorithm. Although there are many different ways to implement stacked generalization, its primary implementation consists of two stages. At the first stage, all the learning algorithms are trained using the available data. At this stage, we use linear regression, random forest regression, gradient boosting and decision tree regression as the first-level regressors. At the second stage a combiner algorithm is used to make a final prediction based on all the predictions of the learning algorithms applied in the first stage.  At this stage, we use again same regression algorithms we used in the first stage to specify which model is the best regressor for this problem. The general schema of stacked generalization applied in this study can be seen in Figure \ref{fig:fig2}.

	\begin{figure}[h!]
	\centering
 	 \includegraphics[width=\linewidth]			{figures/stacking.pdf}
	  \caption{Stacked Generalization}
 	 \label{fig:fig2}
	\end{figure}

  \subsection{Linear Regression}
\iffalse
  Linear Regression (LR) is a statistical method and most basic type of regression. Objective of LR is to find best-fitting straight line that represents the given data. \cite{neter1996applied}. General formula of linear regression is given in equation \ref{eq:linear_regression}:
\begin{equation} \label{eq:linear_regression}
    \hat{\gamma_i} = \beta_1x_{i1} + .. + \beta_px_{ip}
\end{equation}
$\hat{\gamma_i}$'s represent response variables, $x_i$'s represent predictor or explanatory variables in the dataset, $\{\hat{\gamma_i},x_{i1},x_{i2},x_{in}\}_1^n$ and $\beta$'s are coefficients. The aim is to find these coefficients and a function representing data in the best way.
\fi
A linear regression (LR) is a statistical method where a dependent variable $\gamma$ (the target variable) is computed from $p$ independent variables that are assumed to have an influence on the target variable. Given a data set  of $n$ data points, the formula for a regression of one data point $\gamma_i$ (regressand) is as follows:
  \begin{equation} \label{eq:linear_regression}
    \gamma_i = \beta_jx_{i1} +..\beta_px_{ip} + \epsilon_i \enspace \enspace \enspace i = 1,2,..n
   \end{equation}
where ${\beta_{j}}$ is the regression coefficient that can be calculated using Least Squares  approach,  $x_{ij}$ (regressor) is the value of the $j^{th}$ independent variable and $\epsilon_i$ the error term.
\iffalse
Best-fitting function can be found by minimizing minimum squared error (MSE) as in Equation \ref{eq:mse}.
\begin{equation} \label{eq:mse}
	MSE = \frac{1}{n}\sum_{i=1}^{n} (\gamma_i - \hat{\gamma_i})^2
\end{equation}

Also MSE can be written w.r.t variance and bias as follows:
\begin{equation} \label{eq:mse2}
	MSE = variance + bias^2
\end{equation}
\fi
The best-fitting straight line for the observed data is calculated by minimizing the loss function which is sum of the squares of differences between the value of the point $\gamma_i$ and the predicted value $\hat{\gamma_i}$ (the value on the line) as shown in Equation \ref{eq:mse}.
\begin{equation} \label{eq:mse}
	MSE = \frac{1}{n}\sum_{i=1}^{n} (\hat{\gamma_i}- \gamma_i)^2
\end{equation}
The best values of regression coefficients and the error terms can be found by minimizing the loss function in Equation \ref{eq:mse}. While minimizing loss function, a penalty term is used to control the complexity of the model. For instance, lasso (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) uses $L1$ norm penalty term and ridge regression uses  $L2$ norm penalty term as shown in Equation \eqref{eq:lasso} and \eqref{eq:ridge} respectively. $\lambda$ is regularization parameter that prevents overfitting or controls model complexity. In both Equation \eqref{eq:lasso} and \eqref{eq:ridge} coefficients ($\beta$), dependent variables ($\gamma$) and independent variables ($X$) are represented in matrix form.
\begin{equation} \label{eq:lasso}
	\beta = argmin \lbrace \frac{1}{n}(\gamma-\beta X)^2 + \lambda_1||\beta||_1 \rbrace
\end{equation}
\begin{equation} \label{eq:ridge}
	\beta = argmin \lbrace \frac{1}{n}(\gamma-\beta X)^2 + \lambda_2||\beta||_2^2 \rbrace
\end{equation}
In this study, we used elastic net which is combination of $L1$ and $L2$ penalty terms with $\lambda = 0.8$ for $L1$ and $\lambda = 0.2$ for $L2$ penalty term with $\lambda = 0.3$ regularization parameter as shown in Equation \eqref{eq:elas}.
\begin{equation} \label{eq:elas}
	\beta = argmin \lbrace \frac{1}{n}(\gamma-\beta X)^2 + \lambda(0.8||\beta||_1 + 0.2||\beta||_2^2) \rbrace
\end{equation}

 \subsection{Decision Tree Regression}
Decision trees (DT) can be used both in classification and regression problems. Quinlan proposed ID3 algorithm as the first decision tree algorithm \cite{quinlan1986induction}. Decision tree algorithms classify both categorical (classification) and numerical (regression) samples in a form of tree structure with a root node, internal nodes and leaf nodes. Internal nodes contain one of the possible input variables (features) available at that point in the tree. The selection of input variable is chosen using information gain or impurity for classification problems and standard deviation reduction for regression problems. The leaves represent labels/predictions. Random forest and gradient boosting algorithms are both decision tree based algorithms.
In this study, decision tree method is applied for regression problems where variance reduction is employed for selection of variables in the internal nodes. Firstly, variance of root node is calculated using Equation \ref{eq:stdroot}, then variance of features is calculated using Equation \ref{eq:stdatt} to construct the tree.
\begin{equation} \label{eq:stdroot}
	\sigma^2 = \frac{\sum_{i=1}^{n}({x_i - \mu})^2}{n}
\end{equation}
In Equation \ref{eq:stdroot}, $n$ is the total number of samples and $\mu$ is  the mean of the samples in the training set. After calculating variance of the root node, variance of input variables is calculated as follows:
\begin{equation} \label{eq:stdatt}
	\sigma^2_{X} = \sum_{c \epsilon X}^{ }{P(c)\sigma^2_{c}}
\end{equation}
 In Equation \ref{eq:stdatt}, $X$ is the input variable and $c$'s are the distinct values of this feature. For example, $X :$ Brand and $c :$ Samsung, Apple or Nokia. $P(c)$ is the probability of $c$ being in the attribute $X$ and $\sigma^2_{c}$ is the variance of the value $c$. Input variable that has the minimum variance or largest variance reduction is selected as the best node as shown in Equation \ref{eq:str}:
\begin{equation} \label{eq:str}
	vr_{X} = \sigma^2 - \sigma^2_{X}
\end{equation}
Finally leaves are representing the average values of instances that they include in subsection 3.4 with bootstrapping method. This process continues recursively, until variance of leaves is smaller than a threshold or all input variables are used. Once a tree has been constructed, new instance is tested by asking questions to the nodes in the tree. When reaching a leaf, value of that leaf is taken as prediction.

\subsection{Random Forest}
	Random forest (RF) is a type of meta learner that uses number of decision trees for both classification and regression problems \cite{breiman2001random}. The features and samples are drawn randomly for every tree in the forest and these trees are trained independently. Each tree is constructed with bootstrap sampling method. Bootstrapping relies on sampling with replacement. Given a dataset $D$ with $N$ samples, a training data set of size $N$ is created by sampling from $D$ with replacement. The remaining samples in $D$ that are not in the training set are separated as the test set. This kind of sampling is called bootstrap sampling.

\iffalse
Figure 3 shows an illustration of the bootstrap sampling method for a dataset of 5 samples.   \newline \\

\begin{figure}[h!]
 \begin{tabular}{||c ||}
 \hline
 Dataset \\ [0.5ex]
 \hline\hline
 Sample 1  \\
 \hline
 Sample 2  \\
 \hline
 Sample 3  \\
 \hline
 Sample 4  \\
 \hline
 Sample 5  \\  [1ex]
 \hline
\end{tabular}       \quad
 \begin{tabular}{||c ||}
 \hline
 Training Set \\ [0.5ex]
 \hline\hline
 Sample 1  \\
 \hline
 Sample 1  \\
 \hline
 Sample 3  \\
 \hline
 Sample 3  \\
 \hline
 Sample 5  \\  [1ex]
 \hline
\end{tabular}       \quad
 \begin{tabular}{||c ||}
 \hline
 Test Set \\ [0.5ex]
 \hline\hline
 Sample 2  \\
 \hline
 Sample 4  \\   [1ex]
 \hline
\end{tabular}
\begin{center}
\end{center}
  \caption{Bootstrap Sampling Method.}
 	 \label{fig:fig3}
\end{figure}
\fi
The probability of an example not being chosen in the dataset that has N samples is :

\begin{equation}
	Pr = 1 - \frac{1}{N}
\end{equation}
The probability of being in the test set for a sample is:
\begin{equation}
 Pr = \left(1 - \frac{1}{N}\right)^N \approx \exp^{-1} = 0.368
\end{equation}
Every tree has a different test set and this set consists of totally $\%63.2$ of data. Samples in the test set are called out-of-bag data. On the other hand, every tree has different features which are selected randomly. While selecting nodes in the tree, only a subset of the features are selected and the best one is chosen as separator node from this subset. Then this process continues recursively until a certain error rate is reached. Each tree is grown independently to reach the specified error rate. For instance, stock feature is chosen as the best separator node among the other randomly selected features, and likewise price feature is chosen as second best node for the first tree in Figure \ref{fig:fig4}. This tree is constructed with two nodes such as stock and price, whereas TREE N has four nodes and some of them are different than the TREE 1.

		\begin{figure}[h!]
	\centering
 	 \includegraphics[width=\linewidth]			{figures/randomforest.pdf}
	  \caption{Random Forest}
 	 \label{fig:fig4}
	\end{figure}

Due to bootstrapping sampling method, there is no need to use cross-validation or separate datasets for training and testing. This process is done internally. In this project, minimum root mean squared error was achieved by using random forest with 20 trees in the first level.

\subsection{Gradient Boosted Trees}

	Gradient Boosted Trees (GBT) are ensemble learning of decision trees \cite{friedman2001greedy}. GBT are said to be the combination of gradient descent and boosting algorithms. Boosting methods aim at improving the performance of classification task by converting weak learners to strong ones. There are multiple boosting algorithms in literature \cite{oza2001experimental}, \cite{grabner2006line}, \cite{grabner2006real}, \cite{tutz2006generalized}. Adaboost is the first boosting algorithm proposed by Freund and Schapire \cite {freund1999short}. It works by weighting each sample in the dataset. Initially all samples are weighted equally likely and after each training iteration, misclassified samples are re-weighted more heavily. Boosting algorithms consist of many weak learners and use weighted summation of them. A weak learner can be defined as a learner that performs better than random guessing and it is used to compensate the shortcomings of existing weak learners. Gradient boosted trees uses gradient descent algorithm for the shortcomings of weak learners instead of using re-weighting mechanism. This algorithm is used to minimize the loss function (also called error function) by moving in the opposite direction of the gradient and finds a local minimum. In literature, there are several different loss functions such as Gaussian $L_2$, Laplace $L_1$, Binomial Loss functions etc \cite{natekin2013gradient}. Squared-error loss function, commonly used in many regression problems, is used in this project.

 Let $L(y_i, F(x_i))$ be the loss function where $y_i$ is actual output and $F(x_i)$ is the model we want to fit in. Our aim is to minimize $J = \sum_{i=1}^{N} (y_i - F(x_i))^2$ function.By using gradient descent algorithm,

\begin{equation} \label{eq:gds}
	F(x_i) = F(x_i) - \alpha\frac{\delta J}{\delta F(x_i)}
\end{equation}

In Equation \ref{eq:gds}, $\alpha$ is learning rate that accelerates or decelerates the learning process. If the learning rate is very large then optimal or minimal point may be skipped. If the learning rate is too small,
more iterations are required to find the minimum value of the loss function. While trees are constructed in parallel or independently in random forest ensemble learning, they are constructed sequential in gradient boosting. Once all trees have been trained, they are combined to give the final output.

\iffalse
\begin{figure*}
\centering
\begin{subfigure}{.5\textwidth}
  \centering
  \includegraphics[width=1\linewidth]{figures/gradientDeHighLearningRate}
  \caption{Large Learning Rate}
  \label{fig:sub1}
\end{subfigure}%
\begin{subfigure}{.5\textwidth}
  \centering
  \includegraphics[width=1\linewidth]{figures/gradientDeLowLearningRate}
  \caption{Small Learning Rate}
  \label{fig:sub2}
\end{subfigure}
\caption{Choosing Learning Rate}
\label{fig:fig5}
\end{figure*}
\fi

	\section{EXPERIMENTAL RESULTS}

	\subsection{Dataset Definition}
	The data used in the experiments was provided from one of the most popular online e-commerce company in $\lbrace Country\_Name\rbrace$. First, standard preprocessing techniques are applied. Some of these techniques include filling in the missing values, removal of missing attributes when a major portion of the attribute values are missing and removal of irrelevant attributes. Each product/good has a timestamp which represents the date it is sold consisting of year, month, week and day information. A product can be sold several times within the same day from both same and different sellers. The demands or sales of a product are aggregated weekly. While the dataset contains 3575 instances and 17 attributes, only 1925 instances remained after the aggregation. Additionally, customers enter the company's website and choose a product they want. When they buy that product, this operation is inserted into a table as an instance, but if they give up to buy, this operation is also inserted into another table. We used this information to find the popularity of the product/good. For instance, product A is viewed 100 times and product B is viewed 55 times from both same and different users. It can be concluded that product A is more popular than product B. Before applying stacked generalization
method, outliers were removed, we only consider
the products where demand is less than 20. In this study, the parameters at the data preparation  stages are  determined by consulting with our contacts at the e-commerce company.
	\subsection{Evaluation Method}
We used Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) to evaluate model performances. It is square root of the summation of differences between actual and predicted values. RMSE is frequently used in regression analysis. RMSE can be calculated as shown in Equation \ref{eq:rmse}. $\hat{\gamma_i}$'s are predicted and ${\gamma}$'s are actual values.
\begin{equation} \label{eq:rmse}
	RMSE = \sqrt{\frac{\sum_{i=1}^{n}({\hat{\gamma_i} - \gamma})^2}{n}}
\end{equation}

     \begin{figure}[b]
	\centering
 	 \includegraphics[width=\linewidth]			{figures/stackingProcess.pdf}
	  \caption{Stacking Process}
 	 \label{fig:fig6}
	\end{figure}

\begin{figure*}
\begin{floatrow}[4]

\capbtabbox{%
 \begin{tabular}{|l|c|c|}
 \hline

Model&RMSE \\ \hline
DT&2.200\\ \hline
GBT&2.299\\ \hline
RF&2.120\\ \hline
LR&1.910\\ \hline
\end{tabular}
}{%
  \caption{The Results of Regressors at Level 2.
  \thinspace \thinspace \thinspace \enspace \enspace \enspace \enspace \enspace\enspace\enspace\enspace\enspace\enspace\enspace\enspace\enspace\enspace\enspace\enspace\enspace\enspace\enspace\enspace\enspace
    \label{Table1}}%
}

\capbtabbox{%
 \begin{tabular}{|l|c|c|}
 \hline
Model&RMSE \\ \hline
DT&1.928\\ \hline
GBT&1.918\\ \hline
RF&1.865\\ \hline
LR&2.708\\ \hline
SG(LR)&1.864\\ \hline
\end{tabular}
}{%
  \caption{The Best Results of Single Classifiers and SG.  \\ \hfill
   \label{Table2}
}%
}

\capbtabbox{%
 \begin{tabular}{|l|c|c|}
 \hline
Model&RMSE \\ \hline
GBT+DT&1,955		\\ \hline
GBT+LR&1,957	\\ \hline
LR+DT&1,962	\\ \hline
DT+RF&1,963		\\ \hline
GBT+RF&1,870		\\ \hline
LR+RF&1,927	\\ \hline
\end{tabular}
}{%
  \caption{SG with Binary Combination of Regressors.
   \\ \hfill
    \label{Table3}
  }%
}

\capbtabbox{%
 \begin{tabular}{|l|c|c|}
 \hline
Model&RMSE \\ \hline
DT+RF+GBT&1.894\\ \hline
RF+DT+LR&1.909\\ \hline
GBT+LR+DT&2.011\\ \hline
LR+RF+GBT&1.864\\ \hline
\end{tabular}
}{%
  \caption{SG with Triple    Combination
of Regressors.  \\ \hfill \break
    \label{Table4}
}%
}

\end{floatrow}
\end{figure*}

We compared the results of the SG method with the results obtained by single classifiers. These classifiers include DT, GBT, RF and LR. Firstly, we split the data into training, validation and test sets (use $\%50$ of data for training, $\%20$ of data for validation and the remaining part for testing) and trained first level regressors using the training set. For SG, we applied 10-fold cross validation on the training set to get the best model of the first level regressors (except random forest ensemble model). After getting the first level regressor models, we used the validation set to create second level of the SG model. The single classifiers are trained on the combined training and test sets. The results of single classifiers and SG are evaluated using the test set in terms of RMSE. This process can be seen in Figure \ref{fig:fig6}.

\subsection{Result and Discussion}
	In this section, we evaluate the proposed model using RMSE evaluation method. After calculating RMSE for single classifiers and SG, we applied analysis of variances (ANOVA) test. It is generalized version of t-test to determine whether there are any statistically significant differences between the means of two or more unrelated groups. We use ANOVA test to show that predictions of the models are statistically different. The training set is divided randomly into 20 different subsets, so that no subset contains the whole training set. Using each of the different subsets and the validation set, the SG model is trained and evaluated on the test set. In the first level of the SG model, various combinations of the four algorithms are used.  We also conducted experiments with different machine learning algorithms in the second level of SG. For the single classifiers, the combination of training and tests is divided randomly into 20 subsets, and the same evaluation process is also repeated for these classifiers. We also run the proposed method with different combinations of the first level regressors.

Table \ref{Table1} shows the the average of the RMSE results of the SG when using different learning methods in the second level. As can be seen from the table, LR outperforms the other learning methods. For this reason, in the remaining experiments, the results of the SG model is given when using LR in the second level.
Table \ref{Table2} shows the best results of single classifiers and SG model  obtained from 20 runs. The SG model gives the best result when LR, RF and GBT are used in the first level. Table \ref{Table3} shows the results of binary combinations of the models. We found the minimum RMSE as $1.870$ by using GBT and RF together in the first level. After using binary combination of the models in the first level, we also created triple combination of them to specify the best combination. Table \ref{Table4} shows results of triple combination of models.

In ANOVA test, the null hypothesis rejected with $5\%$ significance level which shows that the predictions of RF and LR are significantly better than others in the first and second level respectively.

After concluding RF and LR are statistically different than other regressors at level 1 and 2 respectively, we applied t-test again with $\alpha = 0.05$ between RF in the first level and LR in the second level. Result of the t-test showed that LR in the second level is not statistically significantly different than RF
	\section{CONCLUSION AND FUTURE WORK}
\noindent In this paper, we examine the problem of demand forecasting on an e-commerce web site. We proposed stacked generalization method consists of sub-level regressors. We have also tested results of single classifiers separately together with the general model. Experiments have shown that our approach predicts demand at least as good as single classifiers do, even better using much less training data (only $\%20$ of the dataset). We think that our approach will predict much better than other single classifiers when more data is used. Because of the difference is not statistically significant between the proposed model and random forest, the proposed method can be used to forecast demand due to its accuracy with less data. In the future, we will use the output of this project as part of price optimization problem which we are planning to work on.

\section*{\uppercase{Acknowledgements}}
\noindent The data used in this study was provided by n11 (www.n11.com). The authors are also thankful for the assistance rendered by \.{I}lker K\"{u}\c{c}\"{u}kil in the production of the data set.

\bibliographystyle{apalike}
{\small

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text:
The Year of Living Distantly
The Cost of Love
John Lubbock
Piazza XV April in Milan on 17 March 2020
John Lubbock describes his enforced separation from his wife during the COVID-19 pandemic, which he believes lays bare once more the hostile environment the UK has cultivated.
I haven't seen my wife for four weeks and I have no idea when I will be able to see her again. We are told by the Government that couples should not see each other or move in together for the duration of the crisis. I don't have that choice.
We met at the Coronet Theatre in Elephant and Castle in 2013. She was visiting London for the first time from Istanbul, where I'd been six months earlier for training with human rights activists from the Middle East. Our meeting happened to occur in the middle of the Gezi Park Protests – a wave of civil unrest in Turkey – and we hit it off, talking about music and Turkish politics.
I went to live in Istanbul with her for five months in 2014-2015, working as a journalist and making my first documentary film. In 2016, she went to study in Rome and, a year later, she started working in Milan. Since then, I have been travelling to Italy almost every month to stay for a week or two before returning to London. It has not been ideal. After I left my job this January, I had planned to move to Milan to see if I could find work there. I can't get there now.
My wife lives and works in Italy but is not an EU citizen, so she does not have the right to move to the UK unless we apply for her settlement visa, which will take months and cost thousands of pounds. An initial settlement visa now costs £1,524 and needs to be renewed after two-and-a-half years. You also need to pay £624 per year as an NHS surcharge. After five years, she can apply for 'indefinite leave to remain', which currently costs £2,389. In total, going through this process (not counting any lawyers fees or other costs) will set you back £8,557. These fees are largely targeted at people from diaspora groups who might marry someone from their country of origin, as the Government seeks to appease those in the press who constantly demand lower levels of immigration. They also target the poor. You cannot marry someone from abroad unless you are rich enough. A British citizen must have a salary of at least £18,600 (or £60,000 in savings) to marry someone from outside the EU.
So, having fallen in love with someone who happens to be from Turkey (the country of 76 million people, who Vote Leave said would be moving to your street when they joined the EU), I must pay the UK Government a ransom to be able to have a normal relationship. It also means that, in times of global crisis, I'm utterly cut off from my partner and she is cut off both from me and from her family in Turkey. Her sister is a doctor and on the frontline treating COVID-19 patients there.
I knew at the start that it wouldn't be logistically easy to have a relationship with someone from outside the EU, but I didn't think that after six years I would still be unable to live with my partner. I am very lucky that I am able to survive financially while unemployed because I still live at my family home in London, but this is also a necessity caused by the capital's housing crisis and the stagnation of wages throughout the economy.
I would like to know that, some day, I'll be able to live together with my partner, in the same apartment in the same city. As the days become an undifferentiated soup of time, that prospect seems further away than ever. I worry about how she is doing in Milan all alone in her apartment, worrying about when she will be able to see me or her family next. We live in an atomised society and, right now, I feel like we are all very small atoms, very far apart.
I'm hopeful that this will be little more than a boring inconvenience in which I aim to keep my sanity intact. I know that, for many people, doing that will be much harder, if not impossible. I'm thinking of the families squashed into cramped apartments who will get into arguments, the people living in violent domestic situations, the people on the breadline, the newly unemployed, the refugees awaiting immigration decisions. The Coronavirus is "deepening the consequences of inequality," according to the New York Times.
I have consumed quite a large amount of cheap wine since this began. I'm not entirely sure what else you're supposed to do after nine pm. Once life returns to something like normal, there will be a lot of pent up energy to let out. The Government might be riding high in the opinion polls – without the bothersome issue of any kind of functional opposition to hamper its PR campaign – but I believe that its popularity will be tested if it becomes clear that the NHS has been broken by austerity and if this leads to avoidable deaths. It seems unbelievable to me that the public could let off the very people who have underfunded the NHS for a decade.
It is often remarked that Britain is not a particularly rebellious nation, so it will be interesting to see what happens when the lid is lifted from our present confinement and people are able to party and protest once again. It seems likely that there will be many more people unemployed, a recession, and a Government with a huge economic and social burden to deal with.
I personally feel a deep sense of resentment that I should be punished for marrying someone from another country. This Hostile Environment which I experience in a limited form is suffered far more cruelly by anybody without the melanin deficiency necessary for white privilege. I'd like to think that this crisis is helping to give people a wider perspective about what is important in life – but I also remember that Boris Johnson still thinks he can get a trade deal with the EU by the end of 2020.
More stories filed under Culture
150 Years of History and Renewed Political Rivalries Will Charge the England-Scotland Euro Clash
Gary Gowers, 16 January 2021
Sports journalist Gary Gowers looks forward to Scotland's clash with England in June and considers the historical baggage the game will bring with it
The Upside Down: Long Live the Elders! The Exemplary Life of Barry Lopez
John Mitchinson, 8 January 2021
John Mitchinson returns with his reflections on the final book of the late great American author and what it reveals about the demands on humans to evolve ethically in order to meet the many challenges on the horizon
The Despicable History of Imperial Food and Drink Still Casts A Shadow Today
Stephen Colegrave, 4 January 2021
Stephen Colegrave delves into the dark colonial past and historic human cost of the products Brits can't seem to live without
Helluva Year! Boris Johnson's 2020 Review
Otto English, 31 December 2020
The Prime Minister has an 'Australian Style' litany of successes to celebrate in his first full year, as told to Otto English


text:
John Frederick Kading (November 17, 1884 in Waukesha, Wisconsin – June 2, 1964 in Chicago, Illinois) was a first baseman in Major League Baseball.

External links

1884 births
1964 deaths
Baseball players from Wisconsin
Major League Baseball first basemen
Pittsburgh Pirates players
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Baseball players from Chicago
Sportspeople from Waukesha, Wisconsin
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Sportspeople from the Milwaukee metropolitan area

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The Blue バタフライ, 蝶. . HD Wallpaper and background images in the 城 & Beckett club tagged: castle stana katic livejournal nathan fillion wallpaper season 4 beckett 4x14 the blue butterfly.
This 城 & Beckett wallpaper might contain コンサート.


This is the video of "Mannequin Skywalker" taking the ride!
A few days ago Blue Origin conducted the first test flight of their newest New Shepard capsule, a future space tourist sub-orbital capsule powered by a reusable rocket.
The new version of the capsule includes real windows, and a couple of cameras inside the capsule filmed a test dummy taking a ride to the edge of space (the capsule's apogee ended up just a few hundred meters below the internationally accepted line of space at 100 km, the Karman line).


The school G.P.S. MAHURI is located in the area MAHURI of DHOLPUR. G.P.S. MAHURI is in the DHAULPUR district of RAJASTHAN state. pincode is 328024. G.P.S. MAHURI DHOLPUR was establised in the year 1983. The management of G.P.S. MAHURI is Local Body.
G.P.S. MAHURI is a Primary only school. The coeducation status of G.P.S. MAHURI is Co-Educational. The residential status of G.P.S. MAHURI is No. and the residential type of G.P.S. MAHURI is Not Applicable. The total number of students in G.P.S. MAHURI DHOLPUR is 106. The total number of teachers in G.P.S. MAHURI DHOLPUR is 3. The total number of non teaching staff in G.P.S. MAHURI is 0. The medium of instruction in G.P.S. MAHURI is Hindi.
The total number of class rooms in G.P.S. MAHURI is 3. The total number of other rooms in G.P.S. MAHURI is 2. The total number of black boards in G.P.S. MAHURI is 5. The total number of books in the library of G.P.S. MAHURI is 225. The total number of computers in G.P.S. MAHURI DHOLPUR is 0. The student teacher ratio of G.P.S. MAHURI DHOLPUR is 35.00000. The student classroom ratio of G.P.S. MAHURI is 35.00000. The pass percentage of G.P.S. MAHURI is 100.00000. The percentage of students who scored first class in G.P.S. MAHURI is 100.00000.


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In 'Acoustic Recordings,' Jack White Winks At Tradition
By Tom Moon
Published September 12, 2016 at 6:18 PM EDT
Jo McCaughey
Courtesy of the artist
The new collection Jack White Acoustic Recordings, 1998-2016 includes unreleased songs, B-sides and album tracks.
Every so often, you run across a collection that opens up an entirely new way to think about an artist. Jack White's new, 26-track retrospective, which focuses on his unplugged, less raucous songs, does just that. The unreleased songs, album tracks and B-sides that make up Jack White Acoustic Recordings, 1998-2016 offer a fresh window onto the work of the creative, prolific rock musician.
These short songs show White's delightfully scrambled take on American roots music. He starts out in familiar places — the blues, folk, and bluegrass — but rarely stays put. His tales of small-time hustlers are delivered with a distinct irreverence.
Sometimes White's embracing tradition; at other times, he's mocking it. Almost always, what comes across is a great sense of playfulness and improvisation. Listen to a bunch of these ripping, effortless-sounding songs in a row, and you might pick up on one of White's secrets: He's not afraid to try stuff, not afraid to fail. That makes all the difference.
Jack White Acoustic Recordings, 1998-2016, is available now on Third Man/Columbia Records.
Tom Moon
Tom Moon has been writing about pop, rock, jazz, blues, hip-hop and the music of the world since 1983.
See stories by Tom Moon


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Drosophila Cdk4 is required for normal growth and ... - Semantic Scholar
inhibiting the E2F transcriptional activation domain. (Harbour et al. .... line EP(2)0844 carries a P element in the 5¢ region, the following lines have insertions ..... imaginal discs were dissected and dissociated for FACS analysis at 96 h. AED. .
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Jul 24, 2014 - necessary to maintain eya expression anterior to the MF (eya-IAM) and in ... IAM leads to a marked reduction in the size of the adult retinal field.
Drosophila Ada2b Is Required for Viability and Normal Histone H3 ...
Jan 12, 2004 - scription start site) was used in conjunction with primer Ada2-6 (5!-GTTCCG ... ffies (wild-type controls) on apple juice plates and aged appropriately. Ovaries. (10 per probe) .... pull-down assay was performed. As shown in ..... Sens
The Drosophila Claudin Kune-kune Is Required for ... - Semantic Scholar
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Anthony J. Greenberg,1 Judith L. Yanowitz2 and Paul Schedl3. Department of ... and Meyer 1996; Kelley and Kuroda 2000; Pannuti of msl1 (Kelley et al. 1995 ...
Drosophila SETDB1 Is Required for Chromosome ... - Semantic Scholar
May 11, 2007 - and dimethyl marks in euchromatin and for H3K9 dimethylation on Chromosome 4. Moreover, DmSETDB1 is required for variegated repression ...
Drosophila Med6 Is Required for Elevated ... - Semantic Scholar
We thank Thomas Kaufman,. Michael Levine, Ulrich Nauber, Todd Laverty, Kei Ito, Carl Hashi- moto, Marcelo Jacobs-Lorena, Judith Lengyel, Michael Weir, Carl.
TM9SF4 is required for Drosophila cellular ... - Semantic Scholar
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Dscam1 Is Required for Normal Dendrite Growth and Branching But ...
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and Technology, Taejon 305-701,2 and Samsung Biomedical Research ..... 3A). Sequence analysis of these PCR fragments identified that dMed626 had a ...
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Aug 11, 2011 - Citation: Lewis A, Wilson N, Stearns G, Johnson N, Nelson R, et al. ...... Westerfield M (1995) The Zebrafish Book: A Guide for the Laboratory ...
Cortical Cholinergic Input Is Required for Normal ... - Semantic Scholar
Apr 10, 2013 - Cholinergic input to the cortex was disrupted by making bilateral injections of the immunotoxin ME20.4-SAP into the NB. This produced a ...
The kinase VRK1 is required for normal meiotic ... - Semantic Scholar
Jan 26, 2011 - Red (Sigma, St. Louis, MO). Images were acquired (CSS) using ... mized (CJB) using Adobe Photoshop 8.0 (San Jose, CA). 4.7. Analysis of ...
Neuroligin-1 is required for normal expression of ... - Semantic Scholar
Jul 1, 2008 - Neuroligin-1 is a potent trigger for the de novo formation of synaptic connections, and it has recently been suggested that it is required for the ...
Netrin-1 Is Required for the Normal Development ... - Semantic Scholar
Cord Oligodendrocytes. Hui-Hsin Tsai,1 Wendy B. Macklin,2 and Robert H. Miller1 ... (Hatten, 2002; Marin and Rubenstein, 2003; Jarjour and. Kennedy, 2004).
Drosophila PI4KIIIalpha is required in follicle cells ... - Semantic Scholar
INTRODUCTION. The Hippo signaling pathway has been identified as a tumor suppressor pathway that is conserved from Drosophila to mammals. (Edgar, 2006 ...
The Drosophila caspase Dredd is required to resist ... - Semantic Scholar
complex either activates NF-κB through a Traf2-, RIP-, NIK- and. IKK-dependent .... Rodriguez, A., Oliver, H., Zou, H., Chen, P., Wang, X. and Abrams, J.M..
Calcineurin Is Required for Pseudohyphal Growth ... - Semantic Scholar
Aug 31, 2012 - Philippines, University of the Philippines, Manila, Philippines. Abstract. Candida ..... Scale bar = 0.5 mm. (B) Scanning electron ..... nourseothricin to select for mutants that have integrated the SAT1 cassette. Disruption of the ...
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May 10, 2012 - Dr. Julie G. Donaldson (Laboratory of Cell Biology, NIH) generously provided the construct of Arf6-. T27N. Cells were transfected with either ...
May 10, 2012 - docking sites for proteins containing Src homology 2 (SH2) and phosphotyrosine ... function of its PH domain, on hepatoma cell migration. Our ..... study showed that the DOCK180/Elmo complex, a Rac1 GEF, has been ...
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Growth-associated protein-43 (GAP-43) is a major growth cone protein whose phosphorylation by PKC in response to extra- cellular guidance cues can regulate ...
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Jan 27, 2009 - by colocalization with myristylated RFP, a marker that stains primarily the plasma ...... obtained from the Bloomington Stock Center (strain #15082). A strain carrying the ..... Song, X., Call, G. B., Kirilly, D. and Xie, T. (2007).
Complexes of D-type cyclins and cdk4 or 6 are thought to govern progression through the G1 phase of the cell cycle. In Drosophila, single genes for. Cyclin D ...
The EMBO Journal Vol. 19 No. 17 pp. 4533±4542, 2000
Drosophila Cdk4 is required for normal growth and is dispensable for cell cycle progression
Claas A.Meyer, Henning W.Jacobs, Sanjeev A.Datar1, Wei Du2, Bruce A.Edgar1 and Christian F.Lehner3 Department of Genetics, University of Bayreuth, 95440 Bayreuth, Germany, 1Division of Basic Sciences, Fred Hutchison Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA 98109 and 2Ben May Institute for Cancer Research, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL 60637, USA 3 Corresponding author e-mail: [email protected]
C.A.Meyer and H.W.Jacobs contributed equally to this work
Complexes of D-type cyclins and cdk4 or 6 are thought to govern progression through the G1 phase of the cell cycle. In Drosophila, single genes for Cyclin D and Cdk4 have been identi®ed, simplifying genetic analysis. Here, we show that Drosophila Cdk4 interacts with Cyclin D and the Rb homolog RBF as expected, but is not absolutely essential. Flies homozygous for null mutations develop to the adult stage and are fertile, although only to a very limited degree. Overexpression of inactive mutant Cdk4, which is able to bind Cyclin D, does not enhance the Cdk4 mutant phenotype, con®rming the absence of additional Cyclin D-dependent cdks. Our results indicate, therefore, that progression into and through the cell cycle can occur in the absence of Cdk4. However, the growth of cells and of the organism is reduced in Cdk4 mutants, indicating a role of D-type cyclin-dependent protein kinases in the modulation of growth rates. Keywords: Cdk4/cell growth/cell proliferation/cyclin D/ Drosophila
Introduction D-type cyclins, their kinase partners cdk4 and 6, the INK inhibitors and the kinase substrate retinoblastoma protein (Rb) are all known for their crucial importance in human tumorigenesis (Weinberg, 1995; Sherr, 1996; Sherr and Roberts, 1999). At the cellular level, Rb has been shown to regulate progression through the G1 phase of the mammalian cell cycle, predominantly by binding to E2F transcription factors, which control a large number of genes involved in cell proliferation and DNA replication (Dyson, 1998). Rb represses expression of E2F target genes by recruiting histone deacetylase activity and by inhibiting the E2F transcriptional activation domain (Harbour et al., 1999). The ability of Rb to block progression through G1 is abolished by Rb hyperphosphorylation, which is initiated by D-type cyclin-dependent kinases during G1 (Sherr, 1994; Sherr and Roberts, 1999). In mammalian cells, the synthesis of D-type cyclins is controlled by extracellular signals. Mitogens induce a rapid accumulation of D-type cyclins. Conversely, antiã European Molecular Biology Organization
mitogens or withdrawal of mitogens result in a rapid decline. D-type cyclins are therefore thought to function as a functional link between extracellular signals and the cell cycle machinery. Accordingly, D-type cyclin±cdk complexes might be predicted to play an important role in the regulation of cell proliferation during development. In mice, a number of genes of the INK (Serrano et al., 1996; Franklin et al., 1998), cyclin D (Fantl et al., 1995; Sicinski et al., 1995, 1996), cdk4 (Rane et al., 1999; Tsutsui et al., 1999), Rb (Clarke et al., 1992; Jacks et al., 1992; Lee et al., 1992, 1996; Cobrinik et al., 1996), E2F (Field et al., 1996; Yamasaki et al., 1996) pathway have been knocked out. In general, cell proliferation during early embryonic development is normal in the absence of these genes. In addition, mouse embryo ®broblasts derived from homozygous mutants proliferate in cell culture. It is often not clear to what extent functional redundancies explain the absence of severe cell proliferation defects in these mutants, because multiple related pathway components encoded by small gene families are present in mammals. The three mammalian D-type cyclins, for instance, can bind to either cdk4 or cdk6 and the different complexes might have largely overlapping functions (Sherr, 1994). While genetic inactivation of either cyclin D1, D2 or cdk4 does not block cell cycle progression, overexpression of INK inhibitors (Guan et al., 1994; Koh et al., 1995; Lukas et al., 1995b; Medema et al., 1995) and microinjection of antibodies against D-type cyclins (Baldin et al., 1993; Quelle et al., 1993; Lukas et al., 1994, 1995a) have indicated that Rb+ cells fail to progress into S-phase when D-type cyclin±cdk complexes are inhibited. In Drosophila, single genes for Cyclin D and its kinase partner Cdk4 (previously designated Cdk4/6) have been described (Finley et al., 1996; Sauer et al., 1996), as well as in the nematode Caenorhabditis elegans (Park and Krause, 1999). Extensive screening of genomic libraries at low stringency has not revealed additional cdk4-like genes in Drosophila (Sauer et al., 1996). Additional cdk4 homologs also cannot be identi®ed in the large set of Drosophila EST sequences and in the published genome sequence (Adams et al., 2000). Therefore, the analysis of the Cdk4 mutant phenotype, which we describe here, can be expected to provide a de®nitive answer to the question of whether cdk4 activity represents an obligatory requirement for progression through the G1 phase. In addition, the cell proliferation program of wild-type Drosophila development is very well known and the effects of mutations can be studied at the cellular level within the organism. Our results demonstrate that Cdk4 interacts genetically with the Drosophila Rb family member RBF, as expected from the analyses in mammals. However, Cdk4 is not essential for progression through the cell cycle or for 4533
C.A.Meyer et al.
Fig. 1. Cyclin D but not Dacapo is bound to Drosophila Cdk4 in vivo. Immunoprecipitates (IP) were isolated with anti-myc antibodies from extracts of embryos expressing either myc-tagged Cdk1 (Cdk1-myc), Cdk2 (Cdk2-myc), Cdk4 (Cdk4-myc) or mutant Cdk4 (Cdk4D175N-myc) and analyzed in immunoblot experiments (IB) with antibodies against the myc epitope (myc), Cyclin D (CycD), Cyclin E (CycE), Cyclin A (CycA), Cyclin B (CycB), Cyclin B3 (CycB3) or Dacapo (DAP). Immunoblot signals resulting from the binding of secondary antibodies to mouse immunoglobulin used for immunoprecipitation are indicated by dots, while arrowheads mark signals re¯ecting the presence of Cyclin D and Cyclin B. Two independent experiments are shown in the panels on the right and left sides.
development to the adult stage. Nevertheless, Cdk4 is clearly required for normal fertility and growth of cells and organism.
Results Drosophila Cdk4 binds to Cyclin D in vivo
Analysis of full-length cDNAs indicated that the characteristic pRb-binding motif LXCXL, which is not encoded by the sequence described previously (Finley et al., 1996), is also present in Drosophila Cyclin D. Co-immunoprecipitation experiments con®rmed that Drosophila Cyclin D associates with Cdk4 in vivo (Figure 1). Immunoblotting with a monoclonal antibody revealed the presence of Cyclin D in anti-myc immunoprecipitates isolated from extracts of Cdk4-myc-expressing embryos. In contrast, Cyclin D was not detected in immunoprecipitates from Cdk1-myc or Cdk2-myc extracts. Moreover, while Cyclins A, B, B3 and E were clearly present in either of these two latter immunoprecipitates, they were not detected in Cdk4-myc immunoprecipitates. Our results indicate therefore that Cyclin D binds speci®cally to Cdk4. Mammalian cdk4 and cdk6 bind to INK- and CIP/KIPtype cdk inhibitors. While INK inhibitors have not been identi®ed in Drosophila, the dacapo gene has been shown 4534
Fig. 2. Molecular characterization of wild-type and mutant Cdk4 alleles. (A) Cdk4 exon sequences are indicated by boxes. Filled boxes indicate translated regions. Putative transcriptional start sites are indicated by arrows and the structure of alternative transcripts is illustrated. Triangles indicate insertion sites of P elements. While the line EP(2)0844 carries a P element in the 5¢ region, the following lines have insertions clustered around the position indicated by the second triangle: l(2)05428, l(2)s4639, l(2)k06503, EP(2)2192, EP(2)2358. The size and position of the intragenic deletion in Cdk43 resulting from an imprecise excision of l(2)s4639 is indicated by the black bar. The positions of the primers 1 and 2 used for the PCR experiment (B) are indicated by the open arrows. The regions used as probes 3 and 4 for the Southern blot (C) are indicated by boxes and relevant BamHI restriction sites are indicated. (B) Genomic DNA from wild-type (+/+), Cdk43/CyO (+/±) and Cdk43 (±/±) ¯ies was analyzed by PCR for the presence of Cdk4 sequences. The primers 1 and 2 (A) result in the ampli®cation of a 2.1 kb fragment from the wild-type allele and a 0.3 kb fragment from the Cdk43 allele. (C) Genomic DNA from Cdk43/ CyO and Cdk43 ¯ies was digested with BamHI and analyzed on Southern blots using Cdk4 fragments 3 and 4 (A) as probes. (D) 0±2 h embryo extracts from either wild type (+/+) or Cdk43 (±/±) were analyzed for the presence of Cdk4 by immunoblotting with anti-Cdk4 antisera (CDK4). Immunoblotting with anti-tubulin (TUB) was used as a loading control.
to encode a CIP/KIP-type inhibitor, which binds to Cyclin E±Cdk2 complexes (De Nooij et al., 1996; Lane et al., 1996). While Dacapo was readily observed in Cdk2myc immunoprecipitates as expected, it could not be detected in Cdk4-myc immunoprecipitates (Figure 1). Cdk4 is required for normal growth and fertility but is not essential for cell cycle progression
By mobilizing a P element [l(2)s4639] we isolated an intragenic deletion Cdk43 eliminating essential kinase domains (Figure 2). Surprisingly, homozygous Cdk43 progeny from heterozygous parents developed into adult ¯ies which eclosed without a developmental delay. While the fertility of homozygous females was severely reduced (see Supplementary material available at The EMBO Journal Online for a more detailed description of the fertility defects), occasional progeny could be obtained even from homozygous parents demonstrating that Cdk4 is
Drosophila Cdk4 mutants
Table I. The effect of Cdk4 on the size of cells, organs and organism Crossa
Weightb (mg)
Wing areac (mm2)
Cell sized (mm2)
Cell numbere
Cdk43/Cdk43 Cdk43/+ Cdk43/Cdk43; Cdk43/Cdk43; Cdk43/Cdk43; Cdk43/Cdk43; Cdk43/Cdk43; Cdk43/Cdk43;
0.69 0.84 0.68 0.94* 0.73 0.77 0.73 0.77
1.19 1.27 1.14 1.33** 1.16 1.17 1.15 1.22
137.9 130.3 146.5 137.9*** 147.5 143.2 149.5 145.6
da-GAL4/+ da-GAL4/UAS-Cdk4 III.1 da-GAL4/+ da-GAL4/UAS-Cdk4D175N-mycIII.7 da-GAL4/+ da-GAL4/UAS-Cdk4D175N-mycIII.4
aThe crosses that resulted in progeny with the different genotypes analyzed are described in Materials and methods. As the growth of ¯ies is very sensitive to growth conditions, comparisons between sibling progeny of a cross raised in the same bottle are most accurate. The values given in Table I are from experiments that were independent of those used for the calculation of the weight ratios (Figure 3G and H). bThe average weight of male ¯ies was determined as described in Materials and methods. Standard deviations (SDs) were smaller than 0.04 mg, except for the Cdk43/Cdk43; da-GAL4/+ ¯ies in cross 3 where SD was 0.06. cThe area of 10 wings obtained from 10 different males was measured and averaged, except for cross 5 where only ®ve wings were analyzed. SDs were
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Local News, Real Estate Recap
This week in Atlanta real estate: More Gwinnett County development, Zillow Offers hub and more
by Mary Welch February 1, 2019
Creative Commons 2.0: John Trainor
Several developers in Gwinnett County have applied to the county's department of planning and development to build new multifamily projects.
Hathaway Development proposed building 305 apartment units that will include 148 one-bedroom units, 127 two-bedroom and 30 three-bedroom apartments on 23.9 acres at 2490 Sugarloaf Parkway. The Integrity Development Group has 11.54 acres under contract with plans to build 65 townhome units, also on Sugarloaf.
Ridge Stone Capital requested a rezoning of a 2.1-acre tract located on the southeast side of Satellite Boulevard just north of Hopkins Mill Road. Ridge Sone wants to build a five-story condo building with 59 two- and three-story units ranging from 1,000 to 1,400 square feet. The building will share amenities with the proposed development located at 4580 Satellite Boulevard, which the developer intends to turn into a five-story condo with 56 two- and three-three-bedroom units. The condo is part of a mixed used project that will also contain about 48,000 square feet of office and retail.
In other Atlanta real estate news:
Zillow contemplating Southeast hub: Seattle-based Zillow is potentially seeking up to 100,000 square feet for a Southeast hub in Atlanta for its Zillow Offers division. Zillow Offers puts up cash in exchange for a seller's house and, if accepted, allows the seller to choose a closing date for a fee. Zillow Offers began service in Atlanta last September, its third market outside of Phoenix and Las Vegas. At this point the platform has been launched in six markets, including Denver, Charlotte and Raleigh, with plans to expand to 14 markets this year.
The Edge opens its doors: The Atlanta Business Chronicle reported this week that The Edge, a 350-unit apartment and retail project along Atlanta BeltLine's Eastside Trail, is welcoming its first residents. The $80 million development, built by North American Properties and Vantage Realty Partners, includes 10 percent affordable housing units, which start at around $1,220. The market-rate units are renting for $2.35 per square foot, with the average unit coming in at 850 square feet. Among the amenities are a dog park, South Beach-inspired pool deck and small offices residents can rent. New restaurants are planned, including one called Cold Beer from Chef Kevin Gillespie.
Taylor Morrison names new Atlanta president: This Thursday, Robert Rademacher was named president of the Atlanta division of national homebuilder and developer Taylor Morrison. A graduate of the University of Kentucky-Lexington, Rademacher will oversee 21 Taylor Morrison communities in the greater Atlanta area, with four additional communities opening this year.
Johns Creek townhomes ready for viewing: The Providence Group of Georgia announced that the townhomes at Cresslyn, its Johns Creek community, are ready to check out. Priced from $399,000, the brownstone townhomes are two- and three-story with open-concept floor plans that can be customized. Its Bainbridge Model Home received the OBIE Gold Award for best building design and best interior merchandising from the Greater Atlanta Home Builders Associations and the Atlanta Sales and Marketing Council.
"Figure out what makes you special, brand it, then capitalize." —Miracle Holt, @PalmerHouseProp… https://t.co/zY9dbJCpJg about 14 minutes ago from AgoraPulse Manager


Kids really are sponges. They hear everything, they see everything, they feel everything and they store away all that knowledge for the proper time.
Once again I woke up today with a number of different topics whirling around in my head as potentials to write about. In fact I should say I got out of bed, because if you didn't really sleep, can you wake up?
My 3 1/2 year has been having a dreadful time with sleeping. Actually, I don't know for sure what she feels about the topic so I will change that to read: her poor sleep deprived parents have been having a dreadful time sleeping because she likes to wake them up every night. I think I can count on one hand how many times she has not woken up at least once a night in the past few months.
We have tried everything. She hated her room, we moved her in with her older sister. That worked well………for one night, maybe two. She wanted a light, we leave on a light. We cut out a nap. We gave her a nap.
But like usual I have digressed. I was just trying to get to the point which was that I ended up sleeping with her from the middle of the night because she was crying and her poor 12-year-old sister needs to be able to sleep so she can actually keep her eyes open at school. Needless to say, I did not get much sleep and when she started making noise already at 6:20am, I started to get annoyed and told her so.
When the kids all got up, I crawled back into my own bed. Hubby got them out to school, but the little devil child one goes a bit later. She was playing downstairs and hubby came back upstairs to our room to get ready and he tells me that little N told him that Eema (mommy in Hebrew) is angry at her. I replied to him uh huh! and told him the tales of the night past. He was totally behind me on that one even though the little one usually twists him around her little itty bitty finger.
This is not the first time by any means where she has correctly interpreted emotions of the people around her and put them into words. Her siblings are adept at that as well.
It is not only the emotions they learn about and pick up. They hear our words, our stories, they see the way we act. They sense who we like and who we don't. They sponge everything up. This can be potentially really embarrassing for their parents. Right now my mind has blacked out specific embarrassing examples (defense mechanism I think), but I know they have caused me to squirm many a time.
It was that incident this morning with my little one as well as a blog post and an article I read this morning that led me to write about this topic today.
Children learn from the way we treat ourselves and think about ourselves. This morning I was reading this parenting article by Dara Squires. She was talking about how her 3 year old daughter was already internalizing messages about how she was not beautiful enough. It is a good article and that example was just a part of the whole article.
My point is that kids absorb everything. They absorb things you don't even think they notice. They know when their parents are fighting even if they never see them argue. They know when you are unhappy, excited , sad….. They seem to know everything-except how to do their chores without being asked but yet again I digress.
As parents, we need to remember that. We need to be up front about our feelings. When kids ask if you are upset or sad and you say no everything is fine, they know you are lying. They then don't exactly know how to reconcile the difference between what they are seeing and what you are saying. It is confusing.
I am not suggesting we tell them our whole life story. I am just saying it is okay to admit we are not perfect and something is troubling us but we are working it out.
We also have to watch how we talk. That of course is obvious to all us parents who have had the kids all of a sudden blurt out curse words or inappropriate phrases in front of other people. Not too charming!
Most of all I think we have to work on ourselves and live our life the best way we possibly can. If we are judgmental with ourselves whether it be about our bodies or our skills, our children learn from example. The same goes for us being judgmental about others.
Our children learn what they live. There is an amazing poem by Dorothy Law Nolte called Children Learn What They Live. It is amazing and I highly recommend everyone read it and remember to live by it. The link to it is here.
Our kids are sponges. They absorb everything both good and bad. That can be bad news at times, but if we remember they are always watching and learning, then we can make sure they do learn positive things by examples we set for them. I know easier said then done, but definitely something to strive for.


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Take Your Kid To Work Day
Since yesterday was "Take Your Kid To Work Day," there were a number of 14 year-old students hanging out in our offices. I don't know if it was because I am closer to their age than some of my other coworkers, but I was asked to spend an hour talking about social media with them. Of the five, four had accounts on Facebook. Of those four, one of them had not checked it in about a year, two of them checked their's once per week and the other checked daily. Interestingly enough, the one fellow that didn't have a Facebook account had a far better understanding of how the internet works than the others - he used Torrents all the time, and was the only one to use and customize Firefox.
None of them had MySpace accounts. None of them had ever emailed a YouTube video to a friend, but they had all sent videos to friends using MSN Messenger. Messenger also seemed to be something they spent a lot of time on - rather than browsing the web, they were just talking to the same people they talk to at school (the instant messaging feature of Facebook was totally lost on them - none of them used it or really knew how it worked).
Napster was like a myth to them - when I asked them about it, one of them said "Didn't that used to be a company or something?" and they were in disbelief when I said it would sometimes take days to download a song.
Near the end of our time together, I asked them about cell phones. Their eyes lit up at this, and they all pulled out their phones. They told me that they text each other regularly, and only one of them seemed to get the distinction between regularly spelled words and phrases and the 'txting' short-hand that is often used in text messages. They also thought it was crazy that I didn't have a cell phone until I was 24 and moved to Japan. ("Is that because your parents wouldn't pay for it?" one of them asked me).
None of them new what they wanted to be when they grow up, and I said that was fine - they were only 15. Any jobs that they think they might want now will have drastically changed by the time they graudate university and start a career. The good part is that there will be a whole bunch of new jobs that don't exist right now, or that we aren't even really aware of that will be perfect for these kids.
Another thing that I thought was interesting was that they didn't have the enormous media diets that I thought they would. When I asked what websites they normally visited, they told me that they normally just visited the websites of the companies that they liked (mostly video game companies) to check for new products. They aren't reading blogs, and they aren't using search engines as much as you might think they might.
I'll admit that five is hardly a representative sample, but it was still great talking to these kids and finding out what they thought of new technology. I hope that they were able to learn as much from me as I was from them.
Thanks also to everyone that chimed in on Twitter as I was explaining that to them - I think they understood, but I don't think they thought Twitter was very cool. In a few years time, they'll probably be hooked into something way better.
PS: These kids also referred to Mario Kart 64 as "the original Mario Kart."
Tagged: learning, napster, students, Take Your Kid To Work Today, Twitter
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