Sarah is very shaken. Facebook banned her! She's not sure why. She has a successful Facebook group that sends new prospects to her email list at a rate of about one a week. Fortunately this is not critical to her business security, she can find other customers elsewhere but the group is a great place for conversations that give her insights into her market.
She must have broken some rule, possibly triggering an automated response. It took ages to work out how to make contact with a human being, who reassured her but it took the best part of a week to resolve the issue.
Sarah is very fortunate, some people are banned from social media platforms for much longer than a week. The reasons are not always clear and if they have broken a rule, it can be inadvertent.
Spam has been recognised as a problem for many years and there are automated responses in place. Posting the same post in several places can trigger an automated response.
There has been a lot of adverse publicity for social media platforms publishing material with violent, sexual or extreme political content. As they tighten up security it is impossible to predict what will trigger a response.
Most platforms aim to monetise their services and so are likely to become less tolerant of unpaid marketing. Penalties may be accidental or deliberately planned. Why should some business receive benefits other businesses pay for?
The root problem is the social media platform owns your posts. They change the environment on a whim and it has not been unknown for a business to lose all its followers. Build your online business in a way that is secure from changes to social media platforms and does not incur penalties from breaches of rules, intended or not.
Email lists are the only secure online place to keep customer records. Use email services such as MailChimp or Aweber or else more complex CRM services, eg Infusionsoft or Kojabi. So long as you pay their fees, MailChimp has a particularly good offer for starter lists, you know your lists are secure.
In addition, these lists help you to stay legal and avoid mailing spam. They help you run a secure business, less likely to be criticised for poor business practices.
Once your list is in place, go forward with more confidence. Here are a few things to consider.
Use social media to feed prospects into your lists. Do this directly, through a link to a squeeze page or indirectly by offering to sign up someone who makes contact through social media.
Don't depend solely on one platform.
Sell from your website and keep sales low key on social media, eg click here for more information.
Post high quality content that aims to draw people into wanting more from you.
Try to engage in conversations by starting them in your own groups or engaging with people in other groups.
Overall, use social media strategically to draw prospects into your sales funnel and never be dependent on one platform.
Next time, I shall consider the question of compliance with regulations such as GDPR.
Sarah is freaking out. She is convinced her business is in meltdown. After good progress, she is struggling to keep track of prospects and customers. Does she need customer relations management? It is important track customers, the stage they are at and potential for future sales.
Sarah has heard of CRM services and thinks she should sign up for one of them so she does not have a lot of remedial work if she delays.
Keep track of your customers. Once you have clarity about the goals of your business and find success at marketing and sales, CRM becomes more important, especially if you plan to expand your business.
May I make a suggestion? During the early days of your business, keep a paper tracking system. You won't have many clients, so it should be manageable. As soon as it becomes hard to keep up, that shows you are ready for automation.
This way you work out a system that works on paper and test it. Of course, when you automate, things change but you have more chance of being on top of the new system, if familiar with the elements you need to record.
FEBE stands for Front End Back End. You need to design both. An early paper system helps you see what you need.
Sometimes, people see the need for FE but not so much for BE. At the early stages of your business, with no clients and few contacts, you naturally design the FE to record the contacts and clients you need. Broadly, your focus is on marketing. How do I find my market and get them into the front end of my business?
The BE is your records of prospects and customers. You need to record where they are in your sales funnel and what they have already purchased from you. For current clients, you need to record where they are in your coaching programme too.
Remember, new clients are more expensive than old. Once they are on your list, some may be tempted to buy from you more than once. This depends on what you sell, of course, but once you find them and they know like and trust you, the costs of marketing new products and services to them are lower than seeking new customers.
CRM services help you manage all this.
Email services, eg MailChimp or Aweber, manage your email lists. More expensive CRM services cover this too. You may not need anything more than an email list.
Broadcast emails – go out to your whole list or segments of your list (there are several ways to segment them). Send broadcasts immediately or schedule them.
Automated sequences of emails go out once someone signs up to your list. These could be one or 2 brief greeting emails or a longer sequence, you can advertise as a lead magnet.
Systems that publish blog posts on a regular schedule.
CRM services such as Infusionsoft and Kojabi, build on basic email services. They are more expensive than email services, significantly more complex and may take a lot of time to learn how to use them. Survey the market to find out what's on offer.
If you think you need one, take an early look ro see what they offer. Find out which services are a good fit with your paper systems. It is possible you'll have difficulty implementing the CRM service even if the fit is good. These are all issues to consider.
These applications depend on a sound email marketing strategy. Take capacity seriously. It's not only current capacity that matters but whether you want to increase it in the future. We'll look at this next time.
Sarah has a new coaching offer. She charges £500 for several sessions and offers an opportunity to change over to a more healthy diet. How can she boost sales?
If this were an online course, Sarah could try a product launch. She could aim for huge numbers of clients and manage them through a members area on her website or through a service provider such as Kojabi.
However, Sarah has capacity for a limited number of coaching clients. She could sign up 10 – 15 and realistically, if successful, allow a steady trickle of clients climb to her maximum capacity. She could try an Evergreen launch, where people access her site any time and make contact. They negotiate a start date, so Sarah has control over numbers who sign up.
A sequence of emails introduce the coaching topic without making an offer. She sends emails to people who opt into her list. They include valuable information readers easily implement. Typically, she sends a sequence of 4 emails and the fifth carries her call to action, which might be a link to a page on her website that makes her offer.
The website carries more information and valuable teaching. Typically, this is a video or a long sales letter. The call to action is to book a telephone conversation with Sarah.
This enables her to complete the sale and fix a regular day and time for the coaching. It's important to sort out payment at this stage. It should be understood coaching starts once payment is complete. It should be a single payment for the whole coaching programme.
So far I've described an intermediate sale. If you have capacity to offer something online for unlimited numbers, try a product launch.
The product launch has two aims. Make as many sales as possible and grow your list, through referrals and affiliates.
Prepare a sequence of four emails. The first three contain high quality teaching, in the email or on a webpage. Send this to your list and encourage people to read or watch the teaching and forward the email to others who may be interested. Anyone new, signs up to your list and then receives all the emails in the series.
The emails also go out to the lists of others prepared to collaborate. Offer them a percentage of what members of their lists actually purchase. There are ways to tag new list members so you know who they come from.
The sequence of emails / videos are together similar to a sales letter. Great teaching with an offer to follow up with in-depth teaching. The fourth email should be highly anticipated, with a call to action to sign up for the offer.
Squeeze pages are landing pages with a single link. They include no distractions, such as navigation to other parts of your site.
A video is possibly more effective. Here use a title, the video, possibly a brief summary of its content and a call to action.
If this works, you may find your list grows rapidly. So, it is worth thinking about the implications for your business.
Sarah does not want to appear "salesy". Her efforts to avoid universal opprobrium for the sin of salesy-ness means she does not make many sales. She makes sales in real life over a coffee but it's a lot of work finding and pursuing leads. Her problem is how to promote products and services online. Automated sales would not consume so much time but isn't it likely to cause followers to unsubscribe if she bangs on about selling her stuff, when she emails her list?
If you sell over coffee, you can sell online. Switch it around, if you can't sell over coffee, you are unlikely to sell online. Observing what works in real life helps you understand what sells online.
The context in which you sell online is important. Give your list something of value. Then offer them the option to opt into some deal to further their interest. There are several ways to do this. They are sometimes referred to as product launches and mostly include high value teaching, as a prelude to making an offer. More sophisticated approaches include using affiliates to grow your email list.
It depends on what you sell. If you aim to fill a workshop with capacity of up to 30, you don't need methods designed to draw in hundreds of customers. A sales video or long sales letter may do the trick.
Think it through. A good email with some teaching, followed by a link for those who want more, is not off-putting. If someone is not interested, they ignore the link.
Your aim is not to offer customers a get-out clause, you want them to follow the link. So, you need a compelling subject line, excellent email content and a clear call to action.
Capture attention and then move readers to take action. Think about what you do, when you go to a sales page. What makes you buy? On the sales page, you read on because you are interested. Once you finish reading or watching the video, you decide whether to make a purchase. You may be impressed by the offer but for some reason, not this time. But you decide to keep an eye on this business, maybe someday.
It is not hype to state what you offer and outline its benefits. It is hype to make outrageous claims, such as "Best in the World".
The challenge is, show you have a product or service worth exploring. Then leave it to the prospect to decide. Give them time but try early bird offers, so you can assess viability. For example, if you're trying to fill a workshop, offer a lower price for the first 50% who sign up or who sign up by a given date.
You don't need to attempt a hard sell to make a sale online, so long as you are confident about what you are selling. Next time I'll take a closer look at ways to boost your online sales.


This entry was posted on Thursday, September 18th, 2008 at 21:47	and is filed under Business, internet, Molnet, Redundans. You can follow any comments to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a comment, or trackback from your own site.


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Zea mays is the botanical name for corn. Zea comes from Greek, meaning "to live." Mays comes from Spanish maz, or maize, the same word as a term in a native Mexican language meaning "mother," or "mother of life."
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text:
Dataset for "Composite hydrogel spheroids based on cellulose nanofibrils and nanofibrous chiral coordination polymer by green synthesis"
This dataset contains data combined SAXS/WAXS data, rheology data, optical microscopy data (extracted using ImageJ) and powder X-ray diffraction data for hydrogel spheroids based on TEMPO-oxidised cellulose nanofibrils and a nanofibrous copper(II) aspartate coordination polymer. The data are provided in the form of Excel files and relate to figures presented in the main text and supplementary information of the publication "Composite hydrogel spheroids based on cellulose nanofibrils and nanofibrous chiral coordination polymer by green synthesis".
The file "Fig3B_data_SAXS-WAXS.xlsx" contains combined SAXS and WAXS data for the main text Figure 3B, which comprises combined SAXS and WAXS patterns for pure Cu-Asp as reference (prepared in water) and OCNF dispersions containing L-Asp at the following concentrations: a) 0 mM (control sample), b) 50 mM, c) 75 mM, d) 100 mM and e) 125 mM.
The file "Fig4_data_rheology1.xlsx" contains rheology data for the main text Figure 4, which comprises plots of G* and tan(delta) for OCNF dispersions containing L-Asp as a function L-Asp concentration in the range 0-150 mM.
The file "Fig6B_data_time-lapse-optical-microscopy.xlsx" contains data for the main text Figure 6B from time lapse optical microscopy, extracted using ImageJ as detailed in the manuscript. Relative image darkness (proportional to crystallite density), d, is plotted as a function of time for 100 microL of OCNF dispersions with the following ligand concentrations: a) 50 mM L-Asp only (measured in triplicate); b) 50 mM L-Asp + 15 mM D-Asp (measured in triplicate) and c) 50 mM L-Asp + 50 mM D-Asp (measured in duplicate).
The file "FigS1_data_PXRD.xlsx" contains powder X-ray diffraction (PXRD) data for the supplementary information Figure S1, where PXRD patterns are presented for: a) [Cu(L-Aspartate)]n; b) Cu(D-Aspartate)]n as described by I. Imaz, M. Rubio-Martínez, W. J. Saletra, D. B. Amabilino, D. Maspoch, J. Am. Chem. Soc. 2009, 131, 18222 (diffraction data extracted from the cited paper) and c) Cu-Asp prepared in water as a reference sample as part of the present study, from copper nitrate and L-Asp.
The file "FigS5_data_rheology2.xlsx" contains rheology data for the supplementary information Figure S5, which comprises plots of G* and tan(delta) for OCNF dispersions containing 50 mM L-Asp (with 100 mM NaOH) and doped with D-Asp at concentrations of 0 mM to 50 mM (with 0 to 100 mM NaOH, accordingly) showing no considerable changes as a function of D-Asp mole fraction.
cellulose, hydrogel, coordination polymer, OCNF, nanocellulose
Complex fluids and soft solids
Engel, E., Calabrese, V., Hossain, Z., Edler, K., Scott, J., 2020. Dataset for "Composite hydrogel spheroids based on cellulose nanofibrils and nanofibrous chiral coordination polymer by green synthesis". Bath: University of Bath Research Data Archive. Available from: https://doi.org/10.15125/BATH-00905.
Fig3B_data_SAXS-WAXS.xlsx
SAXS and WAXS data for Figure 3B, where combined SAXS and WAXS patterns are presented for pure Cu-Asp as reference (prepared in water) and OCNF dispersions containing L-Asp at the following concentrations: a) 0 mM (control sample), b) 50 mM, c) 75 mM, d) 100 mM and e) 125 mM. C) SEM image of the cross section of an air-dried hydrogel showing bundles of Cu-Asp crystallites.
Fig4_data_rheology1.xlsx
Rheology data for Figure 4, where G* and tan(delta) are presented as a function of L-Asp concentration in the range 0-150 mM.
Fig6B_data … microscopy.xlsx
Figure 6B optical microscopy data, extracted from ImageJ as described in detail in the manuscript. The three datasets are for: a) 50 mM L-Asp only (measured in triplicate); b) 50 mM L-Asp + 15 mM D-Asp (measured in triplicate) and c) 50 mM L-Asp + 50 mM D-Asp (measured in duplicate).
FigS1_data_PXRD.xlsx
Powder X-ray diffraction data for Figure S1. Datasets (a) and (b) were extracted from I. Imaz, M. Rubio-Martínez, W. J. Saletra, D. B. Amabilino, D. Maspoch, J. Am. Chem. Soc. 2009, 131, 18222 for reference, while dataset (c) was collected experimentally as part of the present study.
FigS5_data_rheology2.xlsx
Rheology data for Figure S5, where G* and tan(delta) are presented as a function of D-Asp mole fraction in the range 0.1-0.5.
Emile Engel
Vincenzo Calabrese
Karen Edler
Janet L. Scott
A detailed description of materials and methods used in this study is presented in the manuscript main text under "Experimental Section" and the manuscript is available as open access.
https://doi.org/10.1002/adsu.202000069
Commonwealth Scholarship Commission (CSC)
Postdoctoral fellowship
ZARF-2017-473
New Enzymatically Produced Interpenetrating Starch-Cellulose Gels
EP/N033310/1
Engel, E. R., Calabrese, V., Hossain, K. M. Z., Edler, K. J. and Scott, J. L., 2020. Composite Hydrogel Spheroids Based on Cellulose Nanofibrils and Nanofibrous Chiral Coordination Polymer by Green Synthesis. Advanced Sustainable Systems, p.2000069. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1002/adsu.202000069.
Contact person: Emile Engel
Centre for Sustainable Chemical Technologies

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


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Arranged new season 3 episode 28 daily videos
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Home > Vol 7 (2012) >	12007
Journal of the European Optical Society - Rapid publications, Vol 7 (2012)
Microlens array production in a microtechnological dry etch and reflow process for display applications
T. Knieling, M. Shafi, W. Lang, W. Benecke
The fabrication of arrays consisting of densely ordered circular convex microlenses with diameters of 126 μm made of quartz glass in a photoresist reflow and dry etch structure transition process is demonstrated. The rectangular lens arrays with dimensions of 6 mm x 9 mm were designed for focussing collimated light on the pixel center regions of a translucent interference display, which also was produced in microtechnological process steps. The lenses focus light on pixel centers and thus serve for increasing display brightness and contrast since incoming collimated light is partially blocked by opaque metallic ring contacts at the display pixel edges. The focal lengths of the lenses lie between 0.46 mm and 2.53 mm and were adjusted by varying ratio of the selective dry etch rate of photoresist and quartz glass. Due to volume shrinking and edge line pinning of the photoresist structures the lenses curvatures emerge hyperbolic, leading to improved focussing performance.
© The Authors. All rights reserved. [DOI: 10.2971/jeos.2012.12007]
Citation Details
E. Stupp, and M. Brennesholtz, Projection displays (Wiley-VCH, Weinheim, 1999).
T. Knieling, M. Panitz, and W. Benecke, "Electrostatic actuated optical Fabry-Perot switches in passive matrix Displays," SPIE (5348-11), 1-11 (2004).
T. Knieling, W. Lang, and W. Benecke, "Characteristics and electrical addressing of optical Fabry-Perot Displays," SPIE (5875-20), 1-10 (2005).
Z. D. Popovic, R. A. Sprague, and G. A. N. Connel, "Technique for monolithic fabrication of microlens arrays," Appl. Optics 27 (7), 1281-1284 (1988).
E. Hecht, Optik (3rd ed., Oldenbourg-Verlag, München/Wien, 2001).
M. Born, and E. Wolf, Principles of Optics (Pergamon Press, Oxford, 1970).
Journal of the European Optical Society:Rapid publications - ISSN 1990-2573. JEOS:RP is subject to the EOS General Terms and Conditions.


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Probabilistic Volcanic Ash Hazard Analysis (PVAHA) II: assessment of the Asia-Pacific region using VAPAH
V. Miller1,
A. N. Bear-Crozier1,
V. Newey1,
N. Horspool1,2 &
R. Weber1
Volcanic ash is an increasingly common, long-range hazard, impacting on our globalised society. The Asia-Pacific region is rapidly developing as a major contributor to the global population and economy and is home to one-quarter of the world's active volcanoes. Here we present a regional-scale volcanic ash hazard assessment for the Asia-Pacific using a newly developed framework for Probabilistic Volcanic Ash Hazard Analysis (PVAHA). This PVAHA was undertaken using the Volcanic Ash Probabilistic Assessment of Hazard (VAPAH) algorithm. The VAPAH algorithm considered a magnitude-frequency distribution of eruptions and associated volcanic ash load attenuation relationships for the Asia-Pacific, and integrated across all possible events to arrive at an annual exceedance probability for sites of interest. The Asia-Pacific region was divided into six sub-regions (e.g. Indonesia, Philippines and Southeast Asia, Melanesia/Australia, Japan/Taiwan, New Zealand/Samoa/Tonga/Fiji and Russia/China/Mongolia/Korea) characterised by 276 source volcanoes each with individual magnitude-frequency relationships. Sites for analysis within the Asia-Pacific region were limited to land-based locations at 1-km grid spacing, within 500 km of a volcanic source. The Indonesian sub-region exhibited the greatest volcanic ash hazard in the region at the 100-year timeframe, with additional sources (in Japan, the Philippines, Papua New Guinea, Kamchatka - Russia and New Zealand) along plate boundaries manifesting a high degree of hazard at the 10,000-year timeframe. Disaggregation of the volcanic ash hazard for individual sites of interest provided insight into the primary causal factors for volcanic ash hazard at capital cities in Papua New Guinea, the Philippines and Japan. This PVAHA indicated that volcanic ash hazard for Port Moresby was relatively low at all timeframes. In contrast to this, Jakarta, Manila and Tokyo are characterised by high degrees hazard at all timeframes. The greatest hazard was associated with Tokyo and the PVAHA was able to quantify that the large number of sources impacting on this location was the causal factor contributing to the hazard. This evidence-based approach provides important insights for decision makers responsible for strategic planning and can assist with prioritising regions of interest for more detailed volcanic ash hazard modelling and local scale planning.
Explosive eruptions pose a serious hazard to both society and the environment (Blong 1984; Spence et al. 2005; Horwell and Baxter 2006; Durant et al. 2010; Wilson et al. 2012). Volcanic ash can be transported up to thousands of kilometres from a source, and understanding the spatial distribution of fallout from all potential events is essential for quantifying the risk to a region. The occurrence of volcanic ash fallout may not present an immediate danger to large populations; however, the long lasting nature of the hazard can cause serious disruption to aviation routes, critical infrastructure and agriculture production (Wilson et al. 2012). The potentially widespread impact of volcanic ash hazard, coupled with increased globalisation of communication, transportation and commercial networks, highlights the importance of characterising the long-term implications for strategic planning. Furthermore, regional- to global-scale analyses will enable rapid determination of at-risk zones that would benefit from focused, local hazard and risk analysis studies.
The potential impacts of volcanic ash fallout are widespread, varying and highly dependent on the scale of the eruption and the distance from source (Blong 1984; Heiken et al. 1992; Spence et al. 2005; Horwell and Baxter 2006; Costa et al. 2009; Durant et al. 2010). These impacts include but are not limited to: (1) damage to human settlements and buildings in the form of roof collapse from ash loading; (2) disruption of transportation systems due to a decrease in or loss of visibility, covering of roads/railways by ash or direct damage to vehicles; (3) partial or total destruction of agricultural crops, damage to forestry, decrease in soil permeability and increased surface run-off promoting flooding; (4) destruction of pastures and health risks for livestock (e.g. fluorosis); (5) disruption of communication systems (e.g. equipment and power lines); (6) temporary shutdown of airports due to degraded engine performance, failure of navigation equipment or loss of visibility; (7) volcanic ash leaching, which can lead to chemical and physical changes in the quality of open water supplies; (8) adverse health effects (e.g. irritation of eyes and skin and potential respiratory symptoms) associated with ash inhalation. These potential impacts stress the socio-economic implications of volcanic ash fallout and highlight the relevance of adequate hazard assessment and risk mitigation (Folch et al. 2008a; Folch et al. 2008b; Folch and Sulpizio 2010).
Previous probabilistic ash hazard assessments in the Asia-Pacific region
Previous probabilistic analyses of volcanic ash hazard in the Asia-Pacific region have largely focused on qualitative assessments of the frequency and potential consequences of future eruptions (e.g. Simpson et al. 2011). Quantitative approaches have typically considered a single source or site of interest at a local scale with any determined probabilities conditional on an eruption from that volcano occurring (Bonadonna et al. 2005; Jenkins et al. 2008; Costa et al. 2009; Folch and Sulpizio 2010; Bear-Crozier et al. 2012). Jenkins et al. (2012a; 2012b) developed a probabilistic framework for assessing ash fall hazard on a regional-scale (100's of km) by up-scaling the ASHFALL dispersion model for regional-scale applications (Hurst 1994; Hurst and Turner 1999). Limitations associated with this approach centre on the computationally intensive nature of up-scaling ash dispersal modelling requiring large numbers of CPUs, significantly increased simulation times and subsequent limitations on the number of events that can be considered (in the order of hundreds to thousands). Dispersion models are not typically optimised for parallel processing on high performance computing infrastructure at a scale needed to resolve the hundreds of thousands or even millions of events considered in a fully probabilistic analysis. Additionally, this method does not produce hazard curves of annual exceedance probability versus volcanic ash for individual sites of interest, which precludes disaggregation of contributing factors for the hazard.
This paper presents an application example for a newly developed methodology at Geoscience Australia, which seeks to overcome these limitations through the adaptation of a well-established approach to Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) for volcanic ash at a regional-scale. The Probabilistic Volcanic Ash Hazard Analysis (PVAHA) framework considers the magnitude-frequency distribution of eruptions and associated volcanic ash load attenuation relationships to produce and statistically emulate volcanic ash hazard for all events across a region of interest. An algorithm developed to facilitate PVAHA, the Volcanic Ash Probabilistic Assessment tool for Hazard (VAPAH), is used here to present an application example for the Asia-Pacific region.
The PVAHA framework
A framework for PVAHA was developed to investigate volcanic ash hazard in terms of the annual exceedance probability for each site across a region of interest (Bear-Crozier et al. 2016). For a full account of the conceptual frame for PVAHA and the development and validation of the VAPAH algorithm, the reader is referred to the companion paper (Bear-Crozier et al. 2016). A brief summary of the PVAHA framework as pertinent to the Asia-Pacific regional case study is provided below.
PVAHA consists of four steps:
Volcanic sources with respect to any given site of interest must be identified.
For each volcanic source the annual eruption probability must be calculated based on magnitude-frequency relationships of past events.
For a catalogue of synthetic events, volcanic ash load attenuation relationships must be calculated (derived from conventional ash dispersal modelling).
Calculation of the annual exceedance probability versus volcanic ash hazard for each stochastic event at each site across a region of interest.
The VAPAH algorithm
The VAPAH algorithm developed as a mechanism to facilitate PVAHA utilises high performance computing technology in order to undertake assessments at multiple spatial scales. The VAPAH algorithm combines magnitude-frequency relationships, a catalogue of Ash Load Prediction Equations (ALPEs) and global scale meteorological conditions for a region of interest and integrates across all possible events to arrive at a preliminary annual exceedance probability for each site across the region of interest. The reader is referred to the companion paper Bear-Crozier et al. (2016) for a detailed account of the development of the VAPAH algorithm. A brief summary of the VAPAH procedure is provided below and presented in Fig. 1.
Schematic representation of the operational procedure for the VAPAH tool (Bear-Crozier et al. 2016)
Inputs for the VAPAH algorithm include:
Identification of volcanic sources for analysis.
Characterisation of magnitude-frequency relationships for each volcanic source.
Characterisation of the volcanic ash load attenuation relationship (ALPE catalogue).
A spatial grid of pre-determined resolution clipped to the domain extent (default = auto-generated).
Characterisation of meteorological conditions - prevailing wind direction (degrees) and wind speed (m/s)
VAPAH generates a database file of hazard calculations collectively referred to here as the PVAHA. PVAHA results can be post-processed using VAPAH to generate hazard curves for annual probability of exceedance at sites of interest (or all sites), maps for maximum expected ash hazard at timeframes of interest and histograms which disaggregate the hazard (e.g. location, magnitude, source etc.) for determining the primary causal factors at sites of interest.
Preparation of input datasets for VAPAH
Identification of volcanic sources for the Asia-Pacific region
Potential volcanic sources for the Asia-Pacific region were identified using the Smithsonian Institution's Global Volcanism Program (GVP) database of current and past eruptive activity (Siebert et al. 2010). The GVP reports on current eruptions from active volcanoes around the world and maintains a database repository on historical eruptions over the past 10,000 years. Sources were grouped by sub-region for a more robust statistical analysis. Six sub-regions were delineated in accordance with the Smithsonian catalogue structure (Fig. 2):
Map of the Asia-Pacific region study area featuring sub-regions of interest. Potential volcanic sources are indicated by red triangles. The 500 km buffered region used for the extent of the site grid is shown in blue
PNG, Vanuatu, the Solomon Islands and Australia
Philippines and Southeast Asia
Japan and Taiwan
New Zealand, Samoa, Tonga and Fiji
Kamchatka and the Kuriles (Russia), China, Mongolia and Korea
Following the procedure outlined in Bear-Crozier et al. (2016) for source selection, database fields including volcano ID, region, sub-region, volcano type, volcano name, latitude, longitude, eruption year and Volcano Explosivity Index (VEI; an indication of magnitude; Newhall and Self 1982) were captured for each eruption at each source for the Asia-Pacific. These selections were further interrogated and sources classified as submarine, hydrothermal, fumerolic or of unknown type were discarded. Sources with no assigned VEI but designated caldera 'C' or Plinian 'P' were allocated to the larger magnitude class as arbitrary VEI 4 events. The authors acknowledge that Plinian style, caldera-forming eruptions are commonly associated with eruptions greater than VEI 4; however, VEI 4; is selected as a minimum magnitude representing a conservative estimate for the magnitude for the smaller number of these events given the absence of further information (only 13 events identified where this is the case for the Asia-Pacific region). A total of 276 sources were identified across the six sub-regions for 3997 historical events in the catalogue (Fig. 2; Table 1).
Table 1 Asia-Pacific region sources identified for the PVAHA
The annual rate of occurrence of events for each magnitude was used to characterise the magnitude-frequency relationships. The annual rate of occurrence is defined here as the total number of eruptions from a given volcano divided by the length of time for which the record is assumed to be complete (i.e. Record of Completeness - ROC). The completeness of the record for each source under consideration is highly variable owing mostly to the data sparse nature of this region. Following the method outlined in Bear-Crozier et al. (2016), the ROC for each sub-region established for small magnitude events (VEI 3 or below) and large magnitude events (VEI 4 or above) using the break in slope method (Fig. 3; Table 2; Additional file 1). In this instance, each slope break was manually identified (refer to red line on Fig. 3; Additional file 1); however, recent work has identified ways to automate this process (Mead and Magill 2014).
Cumulative number of small (VEI 2–3; top) and large (VEI 4–7; bottom) events over time for three of the six sub-regions a PNG, Vanuatu, Solomon Islands, Australia, b Philippines, Southeast Asia, c Japan, Taiwan. Additional plots for sub-regions d Indonesia, e New Zealand, Samoa, Tonga, Fiji and f Kamchatka (Russia), China, Mongolia, Korea) can be found in Additional file 1
Table 2 Sub-region record of completeness (total number of eruptions included in each sub-region)
Magnitude-frequency relationships for Asia-Pacific sources
Events within the ROC for each sub-region were included in the magnitude-frequency relationship calculations (Additional files 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 and 7). Each source was classified into a volcano type category according to morphology and previous eruption style (Caldera, Large Cone, Shield, Lava Dome, Small Cone), following Jenkins et al. (2012a, b). The probability of an event occurring irrespective of magnitude and the conditional probability of an event of particular magnitude were calculated following the methodology outlined in Bear-Crozier et al. (2016) to arrive at the annual eruption probability for each source. In this study, 22 volcanoes were assigned proxy values for annual rate of occurrence (highlighted in bold; Table 1). In this instance, an average value for all volcanoes in a given category (i.e. large cone) was used as a proxy ROC (Bear-Crozier et al. 2016). In this way, sources that have more detailed historical records are used as analogues for those that are underrepresented in the database. The breakdown of eruptions for each sub-region ROC calculation is outlined in Table 2. A subset of annual eruption probabilities for sources across the region are reported in Table 3, and the reader is referred to Additional files 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 and 13 for all remaining annual eruption probabilities for the Asia-Pacific.
Table 3 Subset of sources across the Asia-Pacific and associated annual eruption probabilities
Characterisation of the volcanic ash load attenuation relationship
A catalogue of 1056 synthetic events was developed, with each event assigned an equal weighting for probability of occurrence following the methodology of Bear-Crozier et al. (2016). Events are not source specific but rather represent a suite of synthetic eruptions, which when coupled with magnitude-frequency statistics and prevailing meteorological conditions for a region of interest, can be used to represent a range of potential events at any volcanic source. The relationship for rate of volcanic ash load decay with distance from the source, as a function of magnitude, column height, duration, wind turbulence, direction and speed, is needed for each event as an input to the VAPAH algorithm. The ALPE catalogue reported in Bear-Crozier et al. (2016) is used here to characterise this attenuation relationship. Each ALPE can be used to statistically emulate the expected volcanic ash hazard from an event of this kind at any location of interest from any volcanic source as a function of distance of the site from the source. The ALPEs employed here were developed using the 3D time-dependent Eulerian model FALL3D (Folch et al. 2012). The reader is referred to the companion paper Bear-Crozier et al. (2016) for background on generation of the ALPE catalogue used for this study.
A spatial grid of pre-determined resolution clipped to the domain extent
The spatial extent of the domain was customised for the Asia-Pacific with consideration given to available high performance computing resources. The finer the resolution of the grid, the greater the number of sites and therefore the higher the computing demands for random access memory (RAM) and central processing units (CPUs). Definition of the full extent of the Asia-Pacific region resulted in a grid measuring 111° by 107°. The gridded area was then clipped to land-based sites within 500 km of a source (a conservative distal limit imposed by the authors for ground loading of volcanic ash using dispersal models; Fig. 2). The resolution of the grid was 0.01° × 0.01° (approximately 1 km2) and the resulting analysis considered 4,473,375 gridded nodes (sites) across an area of approximately 4,600,000 km2 (Fig. 2).
Characterisation of meteorological conditions
Sixty-four years of meteorological data (January 1950 - December 2014) was sourced from the NCEP/NCAR re-analysis for Asia-Pacific region, available at grid intervals of 2.5° globally (Kistler et al. 2001). Wind direction and wind speed vector components are available through this global reanalysis for 17 pressure levels to a height of 40 km. Following the methodology of Bear-Crozier et al. (2016), monthly mean vector components for meridional wind (u-component) and zonal wind (v-component) were extracted at 60 locations across the Asia-Pacific region, from NCEP grid points closest to each volcanic source at the 250 mb pressure level (Tropopause) for a 64-year period (Fig. 4). Monthly mean wind direction (degrees) and wind speed (m/s) were derived from the u and v wind components and aggregated first for each year and then for the 64-year period using the freeware meteorological analysis and plotting tool, WRPLOT. Prevailing wind direction and wind speed were assigned to each source from the closest NCEP point. A subset of monthly mean wind direction and wind speed aggregated for a 64-year period for the Asia-Pacific region are reported in Table 4, and the reader is referred to Additional file 14 for all remaining meteorological parameters used for this study.
Monthly mean wind direction (deg) and wind speed (m/s) for the 250 mb pressure level (Tropopause) aggregated for a 64-year period (1950–2014) for four of the 60 NCEP grid points used for the Asia-Pacific region. Wind rose diagrams depict the frequency of winds blowing 'from' a particular direction over the 64-year period. The length of each spoke is related to the frequency that the wind blows from a particular direction (e.g. N, S E or W) over the 64-year period and each concentric circle represents a different frequency (e.g. 10, 20, 30 %) emanating from zero at the centre (modified after Bear-Crozier et al. 2016)
Table 4 Monthly mean wind direction and wind speed aggregated for a 64-year period (1950–2014) for a subset of NCEP grid points across the Asia-Pacific region
Application of the VAPAH algorithm for the Asia-Pacific region
Configuring and running VAPAH for the Asia-Pacific region
The operational procedure for the VAPAH algorithm is summarised in Fig. 1, and the reader is referred to the companion paper Bear-Crozier et al. (2016) for further detail. A configuration file was used to customise the assessment for the Asia-Pacific region. The configuration file calls a series of CSV (comma separated value) files including:
The ALPE catalogue developed in Bear-Crozier et al. (2016).
The volcano sources and assigned magnitude-frequency relationships, including prevailing wind speed and direction derived through NCEP reanalysis.
The sites of interest consisting of a pre-processed spatial grid at 0.01° resolution clipped to a 500 km radius around volcanoes of interest.
The configuration file was further customised for the Asia-Pacific region, details are presented in Table 5.
Table 5 VAPAH configuration file parameters for Asia-Pacific study
For this study, 276 sources were simulated across a 0.01° site grid with one degree resolution wind direction spacing and 16 individual wind speed directions. The VAPAH algorithm was initialised in parallel using the Raijin Fujitsu Primenergy HPC located at the National Computing Infrastructure (NCI) at the Australian National University (ANU). Memory requirements fluctuated between 32 and 248 GB depending upon the number of sites (this varied spatially). The assessment considered over 1 billion potential events and was completed on 32 cores (CPUs) over a period of approximately 8 weeks.
PVAHA of the Asia-Pacific
VAPAH generated a database file of hazard calculations collectively referred to as a PVAHA for the Asia-Pacific region. Hazard calculations were aggregated for each site and maps were generated which display the maximum expected ash hazard (kg/m2) at each site across the Asia-Pacific at the 100-, 1000- and 10,000-year timeframes (e.g. 1-in-100 year event; Fig. 5). Parts of the Indonesian, Japan and Russian Kamchatka Peninsula (Russian) sub-regions exhibit the greatest volcanic ash hazard occurrence across the Asia-Pacific for all observable timeframes. The remaining three sub-regions, in particular the Philippines, PNG and the north island of New Zealand, exhibit higher degrees of volcanic ash hazard at the longer timeframes. The Indonesian sub-region is subjected to a prevailing easterly wind (blowing towards the west) and has 74 sources contributing to the hazard at this regional scale, more than any other sub-region. A number of these sources have high eruption recurrence rates across all VEIs in the range and 10–20 % of the Indonesian sub-region land mass is subjected to >1 kg/m2 of volcanic ash loading, even at the shorter 100-year timeframe (Fig. 5). This is observed predominantly on the island of Java. For higher ash loads, capable of causing building damage and roof collapse (100–500 kg/m2), the hazard is typically more localised proximal to individual sources with the greatest hazard in east Java where a dense concentration of sources (Tengger Caldera, Semeru, Lamongan centres) combine to create a higher load value zone 80–120 km in diameter. Japan (Northeast Honshu Arc), the Philippines (Mayon, Kanlaon, Bulusan volcanoes), PNG (Bismarck Volcanic Arc), New Zealand (central Taupo Volcanic Zone) and the Kamchatka peninsula (dominated by Kluchevskoi volcano) also feature localised, proximal volcanic ash loads of >100 kg/m2 at the lower timeframe (Fig. 5).
Estimated max ash load for the Asia-Pacific region at the a 100-year timeframe, b 1000-year timeframe and c 10,000-year timeframe. The colour bar indicates the maximum ash load in kg/m2
As the timeframe increases, the level of volcanic ash hazard in the Asia-Pacific region is also found to increase. At the 1000-year timeframe, widespread regions of Indonesia, Japan, the Philippines, PNG, the Kamchatka peninsula and New Zealand show elevated estimates of maximum ash load above the threshold of 1 kg/m2 (Fig. 5). At the 10,000-year timeframe, all countries along the island arcs and plate boundaries of the region show widespread and high volcanic ash hazard.
It should also be noted that there are areas of high ash hazard observed in some of the smaller Pacific island nations, such as Vanuatu. The hazard here is more difficult to observe at the regional-scale, given the small area of these island land masses and the larger regional groupings in this analysis. Whilst the total area likely to be impacted by these levels of ash may be small, it will comprise a larger percentage of the habitable land mass in these nations.
Disaggregation for sites of interest
VAPAH was used to disaggregate the ash hazard as a function of volcanic source for four capital cities of interest; Jakarta (Indonesia), Port Moresby (PNG), Manila (Philippines) and Tokyo (Japan) in order to ascertain the primary causal factors contributing to the hazard at these locations. The estimated maximum ash load hazard is further broken down by VEI for three timeframes (100, 1000, and 10,000 years). Figure 6 features the site locations for each city on enlarged hazard maps for Indonesia, PNG, the Philippines, and Japan at the 1000-year timeframe.
Hazard maps of volcanic ash load at 1 km resolution for the 1000 year timeframe for a Indonesia, b Japan, c the Philippines and d Papua New Guinea
A map of maximum expected volcanic ash load on a 1-km grid for Indonesia is presented here for a 1-in-1000 year event in Fig. 6. A hazard curve for the annual probability of exceedance versus volcanic ash load (kg/m2) generated for a site in Jakarta, Indonesia and maximum expected ash load (kg/m2) at timeframes of interest derived from the data used to generate the hazard curves are presented in Fig. 7. Histograms disaggregating the percentage contribution to the hazard by source and magnitude for this site for a 1-in-100 year, 1-in-1000 year and 1-in-10,000 year event are also presented in Fig. 7. Seventeen sources in the Indonesian sub-region contribute to the hazard for Jakarta (Dempo, Besar, Suoh, Krakatau, Gagak, Salak, Gede Tangkubanparahu, Guntur, Galunggung, Ciremai, Slamet, Dieng V.C, Sundoro, Merbabu and Merapi; Fig. 8). The maximum calculated ash load for the site in Jakarta at the 100-year timeframe was found to be ~0.013 kg/m2. The density of sources within the vicinity of this site resulted in a somewhat even distribution of percentage contribution from each source. Salak was the primary contributor at ~10.5 % (predominantly for events VEI 3 and VEI 4) with other primary contributions from a cluster of sources at Gagak, Gede and Tangkubanparahu each contributing 8–10 % of the ash load hazard for the site at this timeframe. At the 1000-year timeframe, the estimated ash load increased to 0.13 kg/m2. Other primary contributors included Gagak (11 %) and Gede (10.5 %) with five additional sources (Krakatau, Tangkubanparahu, Guntur, Galunggung and Ciremai) contributed to >5 % of the ash load at the site for this timeframe. The expected maximum ash load at the 10,000-year timeframe increased to ~11 kg/m2. Salak, Gagak and Gede are again major contributors to the hazard for this timeframe (25, 23 and 21 % respectively) and the more distal sources of Krakatau, Tangkubanparahu, Papandayan, Guntur, Galunggung and Ciremai have a greater percentage contribution to the hazard for this site at this longer timeframes (collectively ~35 % contribution; Fig. 8).
a Annual exceedance probability curve for a site in Jakarta, Indonesia. Histograms disaggregating the % contribution to ash load hazard of magnitude (VEI) for each source at the site in Jakarta at the b 100, c 1000 and d 10,000 year timeframe
a Annual exceedance probability curve for a site in Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea. Histograms disaggregating the % contribution to ash load hazard of magnitude (VEI) for each source at the site in Port Moresby at the b 100, c 1000 and d 10,000 year timeframe
Port Moresby, PNG
A map of maximum expected volcanic ash load on a 1-km grid for Papua New Guinea is presented for a 1-in-1000 year event in Fig. 6. A hazard curve for the annual probability of exceedance versus volcanic ash load (kg/m2) generated for a site in Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea and maximum expected ash load (kg/m2) at timeframes of interest derived from the data used to generate the hazard curves are presented in Fig. 8. Histograms disaggregating the percentage contribution to the hazard by source and magnitude for this site for a 1-in-100 year, 1-in-1000 year and 1-in-10,000 year event are also presented in Fig. 8. Six sources in the PNG sub-region contribute to the hazard for Port Moresby and include Long Island, Ritter Island, Langila, Lamington, Victory, and Waiowa (Fig. 8). The maximum calculated ash load for Port Moresby at the 100-year timeframe was found to be approaching zero (~1.1 × 10−94 kg/m2). Lamington was the major relative contributor to the hazard at this site at the 100-year timeframe with events at all magnitudes represented totalling 33 % of the ash load anticipated for this site. At the 1000-year timeframe, the estimated ash load increased to ~1.0 × 10−6 kg/m2. Lamington was again the primary contributor (~52 % of the hazard) dominated by VEI 3 and VEI 4 eruptions contributing to >30 % of the expected ash load. Victory and Waiowa are also major contributors for this timeframe (23 and 24 % respectively). The expected maximum ash load at the 10,000-year timeframe increased to ~0.2 kg/m2. Again, the nearby sources of Lamington, Victory and Waiowa are major contributors to the hazard for this timeframe (30, 23 and 17 % respectively) however the more distal sources of Long Island, Ritter Island and Langlia also represent a hazard to Port Moresby for this longer timeframe (collectively ~30 % contribution; Fig. 8).
Manila, the Philippines
A map of maximum expected volcanic ash load on a 1-km grid for the Philippines is presented for a 1-in-1000 year event in Fig. 6. A hazard curve for the annual probability of exceedance versus volcanic ash load (kg/m2) generated for a site in Manila in the Philippines and maximum expected ash load (kg/m2) at timeframes of interest derived from the data used to generate the hazard curves are presented in Fig. 9. Histograms disaggregating the percentage contribution to the hazard by source and magnitude for this site for a 1-in-100 year, 1-in-1000 year and 1-in-10,000 year event are also presented in Fig. 9. Six sources contribute to the expected ash hazard at the site in Manila (Bulusan, Mayon, Taal, Pinatubo, Ambalatungan Group, Cagua; Fig. 9). The maximum calculated ash load for this site in Manila at the 100-year timeframe is ~0.06 kg/m2. Taal was responsible for the majority of the hazard at the 100-year timeframe with events at all magnitudes represented (mostly VEI 3 and VEI 4) totalling ~27 % of the ash load anticipated for this site. Pinatubo was the second largest contributor (~23 %) again with all magnitudes represented (predominantly VEI 3 and VEI 4). Bulusan, Mayon, the Ambalatungan Group and Cagua collectively represented the remaining 50 % of the ash load contribution. At the 1000-year timeframe the expected maximum ash load increased to ~5.13 kg/m2. Again, Taal was the primary ash load contributor (~57 %) for this longer timeframe and Pinatubo was again the second greatest contributor (~36 %). The contributions from both were predominantly VEI 4 and above events. Minimal contributions from other sources were observed for this timeframe (Fig. 9). The expected ash load increased to ~688 kg/m2 at the 10,000-year timeframe. Taal and Pinatubo were the only contributors to the ash load hazard for the site in Manila at this timeframe again accounting for approximately 70 and 30 % of the total anticipated ash load respectively, with events at VEI 4 and above only (Fig. 9).
a Annual exceedance probability curve for a site in Manila, the Philippines. Histograms disaggregating the % contribution to ash load hazard of magnitude (VEI) for each source at the site in Manila at the b 100, c 1000 and d 10,000 year timeframe
A map of maximum expected volcanic ash load on a 1-km grid for Japan is presented here for a 1-in-1000 year event in Fig. 6. A hazard curve for the annual probability of exceedance versus volcanic ash load (kg/m2) generated for a site in Tokyo, Japan and maximum expected ash load (kg/m2) at timeframes of interest derived from the data used to generate the hazard curves are presented in Fig. 10. Histograms disaggregating the percentage contribution to the hazard by source and magnitude for this site for a 1-in-100 year, 1-in-1000 year and 1-in-10,000 year event are also presented in Fig. 10. Over 30 sources contribute to the ash hazard for Tokyo at the timeframes of interest (Isu-Tobu, Hakone, Fuji, On-take, Haku-san, Norikura, Yake-dake, Niigata-Yake-yama, Tate-yama, Myoko, Asama, Kusatsu-Shirane, Haruna, Akagi, Hiuchi, Nikko-Shirane, Takahara, Nasu, Numazawa, Bandai, Adatara, Azuma, Zao, Kurikoma, Chokai, Akita-Komaga-take, Iwate, Akita-Yake-yama, Oshima, Nii-jima, Kozu-shima, Miyake-jima, Hachijo-jima, Aoga-shima; Fig. 10). The maximum calculated ash load for a site in Tokyo at the 100-year timeframe is ~0.19 kg/m2. The density of sources within the vicinity of this site resulted in a somewhat even distribution of percentage contribution from each source with the possible exceptions being Akita-Komaga-take, Iwate and Akita-Yake-yama, which collectively represent <4 % of the hazard for the site. Hakone represented the primary contributor (~5.5 %). Five sources contributed >4 % to the total ash accumulation for this site in Tokyo across all magnitudes for this timeframe (Isu-Tobu, Hakone, Fuji, Akagi and Oshima; Fig. 10). At the 1000-year timeframe, the estimated maximum ash load for the site increased to ~735 kg/m2. Hakone and Fuji were the primary contributors (25 and 16 % respectively) by events VEI 4 or greater in magnitude (Fig. 10). Secondary contributors included Akagi (10 %), Oshima (9 %) and Isu-Tobu (8 %). All other sources contributed less than 5 % to the maximum expected ash load for this site for this timeframe. The expected ash load for this site in Tokyo increased to ~6.0 × 103 kg/m2 at the 10,000-year timeframe and Hakone again was the dominant contributor at 42 % of the total anticipated ash load predominantly from events VEI 4 and above (Fig. 10). Fuji was the second largest contributor (18 %). Additional sources contributed 5–10 % of the total expected ash load for this timeframe (Fig. 10).
a Annual exceedance probability curve for a site in Tokyo, Japan. Histograms disaggregating the % contribution to ash load hazard of magnitude (VEI) for each source at the site in Japan at the b 100, c 1000 and d 10,000 year timeframe
Benefits of the proposed framework for PVAHA
The PVAHA framework is advantageous for quantifying the uncertainty in modelling the volcanic ash hazard. The synthetic catalogue of events represents the full spectrum of input parameters and together with the associated probabilities this enables the uncertainty assumptions to be incorporated into the final results. The event-based approach, which calculates hazard curves of annual probability of exceedance versus volcanic ash load at individual sites also allows for disaggregation of the hazard results (e.g. by magnitude, distance or source). This ability to easily interrogate and understand the contributing factors would be a useful tool for determining impact at a site of interest (e.g. a densely populated city or piece of critical infrastructure). It would also provide input to prioritising funding or developing mitigation strategies for sites with multiple sources contributing to the anticipated hazard where emergency planning would be inherently more complex. In addition the results can be used for identifying priority areas for more detailed dispersion modelling at the local-scale.
The PVAHA developed for the Asia-Pacific region using VAPAH highlighted the degree of volcanic ash hazard across the region as a function of timeframe. The Indonesian sub-region was identified as the greatest contributor to ash hazard for the 100-year timeframe. The remaining five sub-regions located along plate boundaries presented considerable hazard at the longer timeframes. This PVAHA, which employed all available eruption data for the Asia-Pacific region, allowed us to quantitatively assess the relative ash hazard across the region and identify key contributing sources to the hazard at sites of interest providing an evidence base for prioritising further, more detailed, local-scale analyses. Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, the Philippines and Japan were all countries which exhibited a high density of active volcanoes. The volcanic ash hazard maps developed in this study highlighted the potential exposure of communities in these countries to volcanic ash hazard. In order to understand the impact from volcanic ash hazard for a given population, their location and their corresponding infrastructure must be taken into account.
The PVAHA for the four capital city sites of interest (Jakarta, Port Moresby, Manila and Tokyo) indicate that Port Moresby has the lowest ash hazard of the four. At the 100-year and 1000-year timescales, it was demonstrated that Tokyo had the highest anticipated hazard of the four capital cities. At the 10,000-year timescale, the hazard for Tokyo was of the same order as Manila despite the lesser number of sources contributing to the ash hazard for Manila. The number of sources and distance from source greatly influenced the resulting ash hazard for each capital city and has important implications for prioritising planning for more local scale hazard analysis (e.g. conventional ash dispersal modelling). For example if workers intended to customise monitoring strategies for a maximum likelihood event (e.g. using the 10,000-year timeframe), an understanding of the primary causal factors (e.g. which sources contribute more often and at what magnitude) is critical for developing evacuation maps and monitoring strategies. This study suggests that for Manila, a hazard map could be developed in the first instance with more detailed modelling from Taal volcano, as it is likely that 70 % of the ash hazard contributed at this timescale would be from this source. In addition, if monitoring strategies needed to be prioritised, more resources could be employed for Taal volcano. In contrast, for Tokyo there is 25 % likelihood that maximum ash hazard would come from Hakone; however, there is still a significant likelihood that Fuji would be a major contributor. This information could be used to provide evidence that resourcing for monitoring and planning should be distributed amongst a number of contributing sources for this site and that prioritisation of detailed local-scale dispersal modelling might target Hakone and Fuji when considering the hazard for Tokyo for this timeframe.
Limitations of the proposed framework for PVAHA
Limitations associated with the proposed PVAHA framework for application in the Asia-Pacific include the inherent uncertainties of dispersion models, meteorological data resolution, determination of the record of completeness for data sparse regions like the Asia-Pacific and the subsequent use of proxy magnitude-frequency relationships in the absence of observed behaviour for a source. Mitigating the impact of these limitations on the PVAHA output was addressed in a number of ways. There are two key limitations associated with the underlying dispersion models, which have been addressed by the PVAHA framework. Firstly, the ability of dispersal models to simulate ash fall on the ground at ever increasing distances (100's km) is not well validated and secondly ash load values tend to be overestimated in the very proximal (2 km) range. To account for the first limitation, a 500 km from source distal limit was imposed for estimating ground loading of volcanic ash using conventional dispersal models (i.e. the accuracy of ground load estimates at sites >500 km from a source cannot be determined confidently). As a consequence, credible volcanic ash accumulation beyond the 500 km limit may not have been captured, and this had important implications for the Asia-Pacific assessment. For example the ash hazard results from Western New Guinea (Irian Jaya) and Kalimantan show no ash hazard at any timeframe purely as a function of location >500 km from any source. However, historically instances of ash accumulation at ground level, more than 1000 km from source are rare with the exception of very large very infrequent events (e.g. VEI 8 event at Toba, Indonesia (74,000 ka; Costa et al. 2014) and the VEI 7 event at Tambora (1815; Sigurdsson and Carey 1989). At longer time scales the footprint for a given threshold of ash loading might be expected to increase beyond the imposed 500 km limit (e.g. a Tambora 1815-style event; Sigurdsson and Carey 1989), and it is acknowledged that the distribution of ash at these longer timeframes (e.g. 10,000 years) in this PVAHA might be underestimated. To account for the second limitation, results in the first 2 km around a source are not utilised, to mitigate the effects of overestimating the proximal hazard. At the 2–10 km distance the likelihood of overestimation of the hazard is significantly reduced and would not affect a regional-scale analysis, therefore these values are included but any impact/risk assessment would take this into consideration.
Meteorological conditions are considered one of the major controls on short to medium range ash fall deposits, particularly for small to moderate magnitude eruptions (Mortazavi 2009) Whilst the effect of wind direction has been recognized for some time, the complex interactions of eruption plumes and meteorological conditions are still an active area of research (e.g. Woodhouse et al. 2013). To adequately represent the prevailing wind conditions at a source for the purpose of fully probabilistic analysis it is necessary to interrogate the full range of meteorological data over a period of years and for temporal ranges that sufficiently characterize the seasonal variations, in order to incorporate the uncertainty in any particular set of conditions at the source. For a regional-scale study it would require both time and computational resources to fully capture 'all wind' scenarios, rather than just subsets of data. In this study, prevailing wind speed and direction were derived from global NCEP monthly mean estimates at 60 locations across the Asia-Pacific region at the 250 mb pressure level (Tropopause). Meteorological data for the 64-year period (1950–2014) was aggregated for the time period and each source was assigned a prevailing wind speed and direction together with a standard deviation intended to capture seasonal variations in these variables. Meteorological conditions remain fixed horizontally and vertically at each source. According to an analysis of the variation in wind speed and direction horizontally using NCEP data for Indonesia, Jenkins et al. (2012a) showed that mean wind direction and speed downwind does not vary by more than one standard deviation over the maximum extent considered and therefore accounting for horizontal variations is not essential. However, Jenkins et al. (2012a) did find that there are greater vertical variations in wind conditions at one location. It is a limitation of this technique that only one pressure level is considered for each source (250 mb - Tropopause). This limitation is considered acceptable given the coarse resolution of this regional scale analysis and the intended purpose of the PVAHA framework as a mechanism for providing an evidence base for prioritising further analysis using tested and accepted methods of local scale hazard modelling (e.g. conventional dispersion modelling using fully 3D wind fields).
The magnitude-frequency calculations are dependent upon a best estimate for eruption database record of completeness for the Asia-Pacific region. Volcanoes with long repose periods might be under-represented and uncertainty in estimating the completeness of eruption data will affect the probabilities. The PVAHA undertaken here for the Asia-Pacific was highly sensitive to the accuracy of the statistical characterisation of each source and susceptible to gaps in the eruption database. The preservation of historical fall deposits in the rock record is inherently biased by the size of the eruption where larger eruptions are more likely to be preserved in the record (Simpson et al. 2011). The record completeness for a sub-region was also influenced by country specific factors such as the population and record keeping procedures. These limitations could be managed through the refinement of magnitude-frequency relationships for sources in the Asia-Pacific as new data and observations become available. This might include sustained programs of field studies and laboratory analysis aimed at better characterisation of individual source histories and behaviour. The use of proxy volcanoes when deriving the frequency-magnitude values are another limitation. In the Asia-Pacific regional study, 22 sources were assigned proxy probabilities for some VEI relations indicating a need for further targeted data collection (all other sources were assigned probabilities based on known historical behaviour). Future studies could undertake a more detailed assessment for each source however this is currently limited by the lack of geological and historical records.
Explosive eruptions pose a serious hazard to both society and the environment and the volcanic ash hazard associated with these events can cross international borders. Even small amounts of ash can cause disruption to civil aviation routes, critical infrastructure and other exposed elements. Countries without volcanoes still need to be aware of the hazard that might exist from neighbouring regions or those with interconnected networks and economies. Given the extensive nature of the impacts from ash hazard and the increasing interconnectivity and globalisation of communication, transport and economies, it is important to understand the hazard on the breadth of scales used for long-term strategic planning. Quantifying volcanic ash hazard at the regional scale typically requires simplification of computationally intensive approaches to ash dispersion modelling using coarser input datasets. Here we present an application example of the PVAHA framework using the VAPAH algorithm for the Asia-Pacific region. The VAPAH algorithm combined magnitude-frequency relationships for Asia-Pacific sources, an ALPE catalogue and global scale meteorological conditions for the region and integrated across all possible events to arrive at a preliminary annual exceedance probability for each site. This PVAHA, which employed all available eruption data for the Asia-Pacific region, allowed us to quantitatively assess the relative ash hazard across the region and identify key contributing sources to the hazard at sites of interest providing an evidence base for prioritising further, more detailed, local scale analyses. The results were disaggregated to highlight contributing factors for four capital cities in order to demonstrate how the PVAHA could inform evidence-based decision making and emergency planning.
ALPE:
ash load prediction equations
central processing unit
GDP:
GVP:
Global Volcanism Program
National Computational Infrastructure (Australia)
PNG:
PVAHA:
Probabilistic Volcanic Ash Hazard Analysis
ROC:
record of completeness
VAPAH:
Volcanic Ash Probabilistic Assessment of Hazard
VEI:
volcanic explosivity index
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The authors gratefully acknowledge S. Sparks, S. Loughlin, S. Jenkins, C. Magill and our partners at Global Volcano Model (GVM) for numerous scientific discussions throughout the development of this manuscript. The authors also acknowledge the Australian National Computational Infrastructure (NCI) for use of the facilities for computation and for helpful assistance. The authors also wish to thank M. Jakab, M. Garthwaite and A. Jones for their constructive reviews that greatly improved the quality of this manuscript. This paper is published with the permission of the Chief Executive Officer of Geoscience Australia.
Geoscience Australia, GPO Box 378, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia
V. Miller
, A. N. Bear-Crozier
, V. Newey
, N. Horspool
& R. Weber
Current address: GNS Science, PO Box 30368, Avalon, Lower Hutt, 5040, New Zealand
N. Horspool
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Correspondence to V. Miller.
VM contributed to the conceptual framework for the PVAHA, the technical development of the VAPAH tool, executing the Asia-Pacific case study and the preparation of this manuscript. ABC contributed to the conceptual framework for the PVAHA, the technical development of the VAPAH tool and the preparation of this manuscript. VN developed the scientific coding behind the VAPAH tool and assisted in the execution of the Asia-Pacific case study. NH contributed to the conceptual framework for the PVAHA and RW contributed to the statistical analysis for the Asia-Pacific case study. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.
ROC calculations for all sub-regions in the Asia-Pacific case study. (PDF 724 kb)
GVP events included in the Asia-Pacific case study (sub-region A). (CSV 29 kb)
GVP events included in the Asia-Pacific case study (sub-region B). (CSV 14 kb)
GVP events included in the Asia-Pacific case study (sub-region C). (CSV 90 kb)
GVP events included in the Asia-Pacific case study (sub-region D). (CSV 103 kb)
GVP events included in the Asia-Pacific case study (sub-region E). (CSV 24 kb)
GVP events included in the Asia-Pacific case study (sub-region F). (CSV 101 kb)
Calculated annual probabilities for an event of any magnitude occurring from all sources in the Asia-Pacific case study (sub-region A). (CSV 3 kb)
Calculated annual probabilities for an event of any magnitude occurring from all sources in the Asia-Pacific case study (sub-region B). (CSV 2 kb)
Additional file 10:
Calculated annual probabilities for an event of any magnitude occurring from all sources in the Asia-Pacific case study (sub-region C). (CSV 8 kb)
Calculated annual probabilities for an event of any magnitude occurring from all sources in the Asia-Pacific case study (sub-region D). (CSV 8 kb)
Calculated annual probabilities for an event of any magnitude occurring from all sources in the Asia-Pacific case study (sub-region E). (CSV 1 kb)
Calculated annual probabilities for an event of any magnitude occurring from all sources in the Asia-Pacific case study (sub-region F). (CSV 9 kb)
Monthly mean wind direction and wind speed aggregated for a 64-year period from NCEP reanalysis data for 60 NCEP grid points used for the Asia-Pacific case study. (CSV 1 kb)
Miller, V., Bear-Crozier, A.N., Newey, V. et al. Probabilistic Volcanic Ash Hazard Analysis (PVAHA) II: assessment of the Asia-Pacific region using VAPAH. J Appl. Volcanol. 5, 4 (2016) doi:10.1186/s13617-016-0044-3
PVAHA
VAPAH
Probabilistic


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