Details here. Mysteriously, there are no Anglo loans being transferred yet in this tranche. We're told "Loans will be acquired from the remaining institution – Anglo Irish Bank – over the coming weeks after all necessary due diligence material has been received and evaluated." It does seem deeply odd that the bank that NAMA is supposedly having the greatest difficulty processing information from is one that is fully owned by the state. An alternative intepretation offered by Jagdip is that the delay relates to EU State Aid nexus.
The discounts on these loans are higher than the first tranche. I don't think, however, that I can agree with Brian Woods II that this raises the potential profit for NAMA. The new tranche reflects new information on valuations not available when the business plan was put together, though unlike the first tranche, no valuation estimates have been provided. So, in this case, the lower prices paid likely also reflect a lower long-term economic value. It would, of course. be nice to see NAMA re-issue the business plan after each tranche but it ain't gonna happen.
If anyone has the chance to put the question to the DoF, could they ask if the DoF is *right now* seeking EU approval for a further injection into Anglo – after all the last EU approval of €10.44bn has been drawn down to the tune of €10.3bn.
I was being sardonic – never a wise move! I will take your word for it that I misunderstand your earlier point but I still think Mr Kerrigan is misreading your spreadsheet.
I know you were pulling my leg but, at the same, there was a serious point there: Do these figures change the estimates of potential profit because they show lower purchase prices? I think the answer is no but we're pretty bereft of useful information.
I think Jagdip is entirely correct in his appraisal. We already know that the Anglo board has an unreasonably low estimate for the haircut for tranche 2 – even without a change in the level of haircut. As the haircut for all the other banks has increased, with INBS increasing by 14 percentage points, does anyone seriously expect that Anglo will buck the trend?
Does the dramatic increase in haircut suggest that the loans are significantly worse or that NAMA are quietly ignoring the cutoff dates for LTEV values?
I think NAMA and indeed the banks transferring the loans are bound by the date stated in the LEV Regulation, ie analyses produced upto 10/1/10 and a review range of 1985 – 2005.
As we know NAMA have selected 30th Nov as the Valuation Date and MfF says we must go back to the EU if we want to change that. But given Irish residential is off by 8%+ as is Irish commercial and Savills say that development land is *now* up to 90% off peak value, shouldn't NAMA be respecting its own main objective – to protect the interests of the taxpayer – by seeking a change in the Valuation Date to a more current date?
We all knew LEV was State-aid, even the EU who modified the calculation of what was to be paid to the banks in the Feb 10 Decision. However, given the change in property values since the NAMA Valuation Date, banks are getting far more State-aid than was envisaged. At what point does the EU intervene and say we're paying too much for these loans?
Interesting that Anglo loans are not included in this transfer.
I have raised this several times before, but the asset quality of Anglo's loanbook must be very seriously impaired. Which brings me back to my old bugbear, the Masterloan Repurchase Agreement that Anglo have with the central bank.
So, it seems to me that an asset writedown in Anglo would serve to show how bad the assets the CB are holding against this loan to Anglo, leading to a large loss for the CB, or a large loss for Anglo. The longer this sort of bad news can be delayed, the better..
I suspect officials at DG COMP who are reviewing the revised Anglo restructuring plan and monitoring these transfers are considering this question. But my understanding is that they can rule only in the context of the competition impact. This is really a fiscal trade-off issue and probably one for DG ECFIN. The less paid for these loans the more recap is required – and vice versa. Just focusing on AIB and BoI, it means more (or less) NAMA bonds and less (or more) "real money" – more drawdown from the NPRF, dividends forgone, direct Exchequer investment, etc. So the Commission (as a whole) may be compelled to be 'relaxed' about any NAMA overpayment as the aim is to kick it into the long grass.
I'd agree that Anglo, INBS and EBS are special (basket) cases and if NAMA reduce their valuations then these three financial institutions may simply need a greater bail-out from the State. But even the EU must be getting unprecedentedly uncomfortable with the sums surrounding Anglo and INBS.
With respect to AIB and BoI, two institutions which the MfF said wouldn't cost us a penny last Friday, why should these two commercial organisations get *additional* State-aid via inflated property valuations?
That is my argument – the answer is "no", maybe there is something different about the earlier situation but let's bury that dead horse now.
These are fairly worrying deteriorations. My understanding is that this is due to the second tranche being inferior rather than a more pessimistic economic projection on behalf of NAMA. BoI shareholders who recently put in a few billion into the company bought a bit of a pig in a poke. At least when we AIB shareholders get asked we should have a clearer idea of what we are subscribing for.
For what it's worth (plus LEV), Alan Dukes wrote a letter to the Indo that appears to claim that losses on the CBI collateral are already included in the 22 billion.
If the quality of the INBS loan book is so poor how is it only going to need €2.5bn in capital?
@Frank, thanks, I hadn't seen that.
Does lead to other questions though..
Also, if the writedowns are known, why do the Master Loan Repurchase Agreements still exist?
So. 50% of anglo 36=18b plus 4b to get 22. Now, I'm abroad but what pct if the remaining loan book is 4b?
care to change you view that the prices paid in subsequent tranches will be set so as to avoid full nationalisation of AIB.
It does look like there is some evidence of prudence on the part of NAMA. The body is arguably dropping its bid to reflect the underlying value of the collatoral. In so doing, they are even undermining the value of the NPRF investment in BOI. Full nationalisation of AIB looks more and more likely.
Increasingly, the focus is going to be on NAMA strategy to manage the situation. Will it sit on assets, develop them or sell in the near term?
Good question. I'm sticking with my viewpoint on this but that's not to say we haven't reached squeaky bum time in Ballsbridge!
Alan Dukes's letter doesn't explain it very well but he's right — the €33 billion figure involved a double counting. €22 billion is supposed to be the figure that makes Anglo solvent and that includes it being able to pay back the CB. You can't count the €22 billion and add in the €11 billion on top of it.
buonasera to you! The 2009 Anglo accounts put the total loan book at €72.1bn with just under €36bn earmarked for NAMA. The non-NAMA €36bn had a provision of €4.9bn so an extra €4bn would bring the provision upto €8.9bn or 24%.
The EU recently described Anglo as a "monoline" company involved in one sector only. Anglo has taken quite a few receivership cases this year in its own name for investment property (office blocks, hotels, shopping centres) and it is hard to imagine the losses on these loans will be much different to the NAMA stuff.
Money needed for Anglo, the Baal of modern ireland.
Anglo is the symptom; Allied is the disease. AIB delenda est.
Yes, but doesn't that argument rely on the assumption that the Anglo writedown of €22bn is the correct figure?
If you start with that assumption, then Alan Dukes' arguments are correct. If however (as I think myself and Brian are doing) you start to question that assumption then the double counting argument loses its foundation.
I think you are right. The Anglo losses are a function of the amount being tranferred & the haircut. As the latter gets bigger, Anglo's losses begin to exceed 22billion. So the state pours money into the hole (topkill?) or it negotiates with the bondholders. Since there are senior bondholders left other than those issued under the guarantee that yields nothing.
I expect to wake up one day to find that the CB has agreed to take a haircut on in Master Loan Agreement thus avoiding the need for further state support. I bet you this is spun as bond holders agreeing to take a haircut.
In any case, aren't the assets and liabilities of all the Eurosystem's constituent CBs effectively pooled together to a large extent?
So as a solo run, any losses will appear on the cb's P&L account.
I should have picked up on that. Oh my.
22b as a lower bound I feel now. Then were into uncharted territory. Whatever about a srs for commercial banks do we need one for central banks? What does a central bankruptcy look like?
Jagdip says: As we know NAMA have selected 30th Nov as the Valuation Date and MfF says we must go back to the EU if we want to change that. But given Irish residential is off by 8%+ as is Irish commercial and Savills say that development land is *now* up to 90% off peak value, shouldn't NAMA be respecting its own main objective – to protect the interests of the taxpayer – by seeking a change in the Valuation Date to a more current date?
What we have in Ireland is super volatility. In the price of fossil fuels, compounded with the price of land volatility. It makes economic planning, seem like a bad joke. The trouble is not the fact that development land is 90% off its peak value. The trouble is the fact, that land values change up or down at such an alarming rate in Ireland, and we have no policy through which to introduce a degree of stability. If future governments in Ireland succeed in kick starting another bubble type of economy, that development land value is going to radically alter yet again. If will have the undesireable effect of making many business plans redundant. Only the poor sods down at NAMA (and the poor sods here at IE blog) would even bother to try to plan. Developers today are so litargic about investing any creativity or effort in coming up with a plan. Because they are aware of how fast the development land value can change in Ireland. For instance, take the example of mortgage arrears assistance programmes. If we attempt any solutions today, to try and assist people in negative equity – what may now appear as a display of mercy for people in difficulty, could very quickly turn into the opposite, an unfair subsidy to a certain sector of society who own property. What do you then? Squash the mortgage arrears assistance program, or let it run? The same people today, who go on RTE PrimeTime programs and are so good at playing the victims, were the 'smug' people about three years ago. They looked down their noses at anyone who didn't own property. Which is specific to Ireland, because elsewhere in Europe, property ownership levels are much lower. BOH.
I said above: we have no policy through which to introduce a degree of stability.
Take as an example, a modest home put on the market for rent in 2010. One of the key things to include in an advertisement is a bus route. This home is convenient to buses no's, X, Y & Z. But who pays for the buses? Society pays. But the person renting the home gains the benefit. What we need to do is to tax that gain, which certain property owners accrue through the rental value of the property. And re-distribute the proceeds from the said tax, into imrprovements and extensions of the same public services, to areas which need better services. By such a taxation mechanism, the value of other properties can be enhanced, and it will make the problem of depressed values a lot easier to tackle, easier to plan around. The trouble is, we have too many homes in Ireland which are not convenient to bus routes, or train routes and never will be. I hope it is becoming apparent at this stage, to everyone who reads the Irish Economy blog, that very little of the 'value' of a 'property' is actually accounted for by construction costs during a period of economic prosperity, or otherwise. BOH.
Charlie Fell wrote in last Friday's IT, China can handle its property bubble. BOH.
sorry meant to say: the state is responsible for any shortfall in the Central Bank's accounts, just as it receives any profit from the Central Bank's operations – 988 mn this year (including a share of the ECB's profit or loss).
"For losses incurred in the normal market operations used for monetary and liquidity management by the Eurosystem (which are implemented in a decentralised manner by the national central banks (NCBs) of the Eurozone), there is the rule that such losses are shared by all the NCB's in the Eurosystem in proportion to their relative shares in the capital of the ECB.
Looks like loan transfers from Anglo are set to become a real ding-dong according to the Irish Times this morning. Anglo is state owned and NAMA also? Increasingly it seems that the whole bank 'rescue' will result in tears for the taxpayer for a very long and expensive time.
Or, in an observationally-equivalent outcome, they take so long on getting the special resolution regime passed that the only one left to burden-share with is the Central Bank.
Does anyone have a view as to why heavily insolvent Anglo would apparently object to transferring Paddy McKillen's loans and getting nice fresh ECB-redeemable bonds in return?
According to Paddy his loans are good which would presumably mean Anglo got paid close to their nominal value? When you're insolvent to the tune of billions as Anglo was(/is?), wouldn't you be trying anything to raise cash?
Simon Carswell seems to be the only journalist to have the story in some detail.
same reason NAMA wants them – to provide positive cashflow against the bad loans, so that the operational cashflow aspect (as opposed to the core solvency/capital aspect) is better than it otherwise would be. Remember, Anglo is still looking for a reason to have a Good Bank element in future instead of a wind down of the entire entity. For every good loan it loses, the relative size of poor, bad, or less-than-perfect etc loans will increase, and so the case for Good Bank will be less.
Anglo is, in theory, doing what its supposed to be doing – looking after itself to the fullest extent possible as a legal corporate entity, for the benefit of its shareholders. But it seems bizarre that someone in the DoF/Taoiseach's office is not making some phone calls to Aynesley & Co and telling them to back the funk off on this.
Could it also mean that NAMA is actually paying less than the LTEV of the loans and Anglo is being "disadvantaged". This is a classic inter agency spat between two quangos.
The good ship "Burden Sharing" has sailed. The only meaningful quantum of real seniors in Anglo were issued under the guarantee.
So, instead of resolving the bad debt, we know have four different branches of the Irish state – NAMA, Anglo, DoF and the Courts, arguing to decide what to do with the good loans!
You couldn't make this stuff up….
well given that the LTEV cannot be more than the actual nominal on the loan (right?), a fully performing, non-provisioned loan might be transferring at original book value to NAMA. As such, there's no 'advantage' to Anglo to transfer it (except for liqudity i suppose). And given that its struggling to keep itself in existence, its needs some scale and decent customers to keep going as a Good Bank. As you said, classic quango sword fight, but NAMA is supposed to be the clear systematically essential quango, and Anglo the one we still have question marks over, so this shouldnt even be an argument.
Eoin said, As you said, classic quango sword fight, but NAMA is supposed to be the clear systematically essential quango, and Anglo the one we still have question marks over, so this shouldnt even be an argument.
Lets be very clear about this, the basic question from the point of view of the Irish Economy blog, is the one asked by professor Brian Lucey (among others), so often. That is, why aren't more economics professionals involved directly in the affairs of permanent government? There is an answer to this question, which I would like to pose if I may. I mentioned price volatility above. I have been thinking about it, and the super-volatility, that Ireland experiences is derived from several areas. Above I mentioned fossil fuel dependency and land value volatility. But we could also include the pro-cyclical economic policies of our elected governments. We could also include the narrow-ness and un-sustainability of our taxation base. But many peoples' favourite root cause for volatility in Ireland, is the pro-German monetary policies of the European region. Compounded by all of that, are issues at the verges, such as Ireland's dependence on foreign direct investment. Which comes and goes as quickly as the grey skies over the western coast. The thing I am most clear about myself, the reason we NAMA, is because we need an ajency in Ireland of some kind that can work despite of the many sources of price volatility at work in our economy. NAMA is able to operate according to a business plan which no other kind of organisation could. In Ireland, we need an ajency that can go about its business, and advance forward, based on the knowledge (inscribed into its own business plan), that it may make a horrendous loss, or may make a small profit. In the real world, companies have to seek out shareholder capital, which is free to move, if it feels the business plan is too ridiculous. You could not sell the NAMA business plan to any shareholders, except the ones that are captive, like the electorate of this little island. The point to bear in mind, is not that the business plan of NAMA predicts enormous volatility of outcomes. But where does the said volatility derive from? The reason why economists are not included in permanent government in Ireland, is because the said volatility exists, and it makes a complete joke of the concept of economic planning. NAMA as an agency, is one organised around these key assumptions. BOH.
@ BOH Are you for or agin' NAMA, don't be volatile!
I read your argument as a sort of "chaos theory" which argues that the future is simply not capable of any sort of approximate guesstimate ergo no place for the experts.
It is not clear that there is wrangling between Anglo and NAMA. However, it does show up some of the problms that could have arisen if all the banks were nationalised.
Presumably changing the date to a later date would be a formality?
I think the key is the application of the standard discount rate to LTEV where there is no cashflow, e.g. if Anglo lends €5m secured on land with LTEV of €100m but generating no cashflow then the €5m LTEV is still discounted to account for cost of funds and enforcement. If Anglo keeps the loan it expects to get all its money back plus all additional interest. However, if it goes to NAMA it takes a hit.
Not a bit of it. I think that we can accomodate the experts more into the system here in Ireland, as long as we learn and make concerted policy efforts to deal with the volatility. If you look a lot at issues such as carbon taxation and Co2 emission calculation – you very quickly realise, that even the best economic plans come unstuck very quickly – because the pressure for carbon taxation increases with increased price of oil. When the price of oil cools down again, the experts are always left there with their economic plans, and they become like yesterdays newspaper – undervalued. Many great experts had a brief spell of fame during the oil crisis of the 1970s, and since then have drifted in the wilderness. Remember, it was Richard Nixon who passed many of the first environmental protection legislation in the US. It was Jimmy Carter who installed solar panels on the roof of the white house, and it was Regan who had them removed. Just because we have a brief spell of forward thinking, economic and sustainable planning, doesn't mean it will last very long. Especially where the price of oil or development land is concerned. BOH.
I have a question about the NAMA bonds. Mr. Fahy is on the radio again telling us that the ECB will fund NAMA. Aside from the non-sequitur that it is liquidity support, are we sure that NAMA bonds will be considered sovereign bonds?
as to what sort of collateral the NAMA bonds would be. This was before NAMA was set up as a private company, so it was assumed they would be sovereign.
With the setup of the SIV, 51% privately owned, the NAMA bonds are no longer issued by the state. They are issued by a private company with a state guarantee.
Does this not make them simple corporate bonds with insurance? As such, would they attract a higher haircut than the equivalent sovereign bonds?
there's been tons of quasi soveriegn issuance across Europe which is not explicitly soveriegn, and which is readily accepted by the ECB. The ECB will not change their guidelines if there's a risk that its gonna create a brand new fresh liquidity crisis. NAMA bonds still have a government pari-passu guarantee backing them up anyway, regardless of the structure of NAMA SIV itself.
That is interesting stuff. A change to the valuation date is not necessarily a change to the methodology. It is not clear the EU would have to approve it.
Any suggestion that the banks relied on a representation that the valuation date would be 30 November 2009 is more serious. It is unacceptable that the public of the State should be told that a statutory scheme designed and ratified by the legislature is actually subject to representations and provisos not specified in the legislation. Wereas the valuation date was specified int he regulations, the banks shareholders had approved the scheme prior to that date.
It only shows up some of the problems. Nationalistion was supposed to cure the "lemon" problem. However, we see that even nationalised institutions are reluctant to accept lemon rices for good assets. We also see that nationalised institutions are inclined to fight for their own survival (although it is noted that the DoF also thinks Anglo's survival for a period is in the State's interest).
Yeah, but what haircut does it attract? I've been working on the assumption that NAMA bonds would be treated as sovereigns, so have a smaller haircut than, say, guaranteed bank bonds.
The ECB collateral documents are unclear on this. NAMA bonds are not listed on the ECB site as eligible marketable assets. Does this mean they are non-marketable, or that they can only be used in MLRAs at the Irish NCB? (i.e. that the Irish state is providing the liquidity, not the ECB).
Needing a bit of educationj here – why does the haircut matter? Does it affect the repo rate? Okay, a haircut of say 10% means they are only 90% good for liquidity purposes but would that be a serious weakness?
NAMA bonds will be accepted by the ECB and will atttract the same haircut as Irish Government Debt. The Guarantee provided by the Government is irrevocable. They are held in registered global form and so are eligible for collateral in ECB operations.
I've gone back and forth in my mind on the Valuation Date being part of the methodology. If there was a proposal to change it from 30th Nov 2009 to say a date in 2006, then I think that would be a sufficiently significant change to warrant EU approval. But changing the date from 30th Nov to 30th June for the remaining €60bn of loans (if it does require EU approval ) should not be a major exercise.
I'm sure the priority at the DoF is to get the loans transferred, but if a new Valuation Date causes a 1-month delay to the NAMA project for the sake of a €1-2bn saving to the taxpayer, my opinion is that NAMA should do it. I'd hate to think someone's political ego would take priority over the interest of the tax payer just because they said Anglo's recap would be an "upper limit" of €22bn and a change to the Valuation Date could lift that by a billion or two.
On the other hand, at some point the EU is going to figure that Nov 30th was so far from the Bottom that they may intervene to force NAMA to change the Valuation Date because the State-aid element in LEV grows too big. Maybe when the Q2 Permanent TSB HPI is published in the next 10 days? And to add balance, the UK where 20-33% of NAMA assets are located has improved since last Nov but those improvements are negated by the performance in NAMA's primary market.
It is interesting that the haircuts for T1 were more severe than anticipated despite the UK market doing ok.
I expect the DoF do not want to reduce the NAMA valuations any further, particularly having regard to the Anglo situation. I have some sympathy for them in that regard.
Issuer Name. . . . . : National Asset Management Ltd.
BW II says: Needing a bit of educationj here – why does the haircut matter? Does it affect the repo rate? Okay, a haircut of say 10% means they are only 90% good for liquidity purposes but would that be a serious weakness?
Jagdip says: I've gone back and forth in my mind on the Valuation Date being part of the methodology. If there was a proposal to change it from 30th Nov 2009 to say a date in 2006, then I think that would be a sufficiently significant change to warrant EU approval. But changing the date from 30th Nov to 30th June for the remaining €60bn of loans (if it does require EU approval ) should not be a major exercise.
But by that rule, does it also imply that as values change to a more favourable amount, from the bank's perspective, does that mean that NAMA has to pay a 'levy' back to the bank? I think we assume too much here, in that development land values are going to keep diving down and down for ever. The 30th November 2009 date, seems to me to be a reasonable agreement between NAMA and the banks, that no matter what happens (up or down) beyond that point, the plan will not change. Anything else, who lead to undue administration overheads, increased exposure to litigation for the agency and excuse for more delays all round. We are not only fighting against monetary factors here, we are also fighting against time and complexity barriers, which may prove to be a lot more expensive – if we don't get on with this. At a certain point, trying to argue for lower development land valulations from the NAMA point of view, has a huge penalty in terms of increased delays. We all know very well, that time was never going to be a friend of the NAMA type of strategy. BOH.
The haircut matters because you get back less cash from repo (you are effectively paying a higher interest rate). If there had been a problem with the repo status of the NAMA bonds, it would have made them less useful to the banks.
re that EBS one seems to be some sort of structured "puttable" note. Probably little too funky for the ECB to be happy as designating as "govt" in terms of liquidity, tiny issue size of 5mm as well might have impacted on it.
Still don't fully understand. Is the repo interest calculated by reference to the amount borrowed or by reference to the amount of collateral posted? If the latter then clearly the haircut matters a lot but if the former it doesn't seem very important.
The repo rate has nothing to do with the haircut. The haircut is simply a way to impose a margin on the collateral seller. A larger haircut simply means you get less cash for the bonds.
5.5% to sell 10 year bonds.
The barman is flashing the lights on and off.
Indeed you do have to pick a date by reference to which you value. NAMA picked 30th November 2009, which given the first tranche was originally to have been transferred by Christmas was perfectly reasonable.
Since then NAMA has decided to have 15 tranches and there have been delays (EU, banks' paperwork, life) and as we speak €60bn of NAMA's loans are still with the banks. The Bottom last year has become Bottomier and our commercial capital values are off 8% from last Nov to end June (JLL) and our residential is off 8% to end March (PTSB) and would be expected to be off by more than that once Q2 is published. As to the future, who knows but I know not of a single economist, ratings agency, financial institution that is forecasting anything but further drops in residential for the next 6-42 months and the latest JLL commercial index indicates the fall in capital values is picking up pace (4.7% in Q2 vs 2% in Q1).
So as we speak valuing that €60bn of outstanding NAMA-bound loans at 30th November, 2009 rates (and even factoring in the LEV jiggery pokery) means NAMA will overpay for these loans by €1-2bn. NAMA has an obligation to protect the taxpayer (even if that is politically inconvenient) so NAMA should change the Valuation Date for the remaining €60bn of loans.
Again for balance the UK has fared better than NAMA's primary market since last November but even there the decision by Zurich to write down its commercial development loans by 10% in Q2 is worrying and of course the UK only accounts for 20-33% of NAMA loans.
Yes a saving of €1-2bn on the NAMA swings might be offset by futher recap needs on the Anglo/INBS/EBS roundabout but a) we should be clear about State-aid and b) BoI and AIB are supposedly hale and hearty so why are we giving them more State-aid via inflated valuations?
Be grateful if you are talking to the government if you could ask if they are now as we speak seeking approval for an imminent (ie within the next 4 weeks) injection of a further €xbn into Anglo.
Remember the only approval they have from the March 2010 EU Decision is for €10.44bn to be injected and they have runs that down by €10.3bn so far and both the t2 Anglo NAMA of €8bn gross plus reviews of the non-NAMA Anglo portfolio are likely to necessitate immediate injections.
I ask because there seems to be a lot of debate about Anglo's bailout but pretty soon that debate will be an academic examination of history because it will have already happened.
I think I get it now. The haircut doesn't really matter. I might get a car loan for 20k offering my house worth 500k as collateral security, but I only pay interest on the car loan.
well it doesn't matter massively, so long as its not truly big in size. ie if the haircut was 25%, then obviously you wouldn't be getting nearly as much liquidity as you had previously hoped – NAMA's 40bn in bond issuance would only be providing 30bn in liquidity for Irish banks.
On private repo markets, Greek government debt was/is (difficult to really know anymore, very few accepting it) taking a 30-40% haircut.
This speaking about the bottom, and bottom-ier, strikes me as a bit suspicious. In general the comments here might appear to be a big one sided. Especially from a group of academic observers, who aught to be better able to understand reflexive behaviours in markets. To what extent do we know, the behaviour of market prices would not be boom-ie, or boom-ier, if NAMA had not struck an agreement with the lending institutions to set valuations at Nov 2009? I mean, the market since Nov 2009 in Ireland, has well registered the fact that NAMA is making progress, and that wheels have been set into motion. The knowledge held by the Irish property market today, that NAMA has managed to work its way through two tranches of the loans, may account for the slippage in property valuations we have witnessed since Nov 2009. I mean, as academic observers of the process, we should be able to understand basic concepts such as marketplace reflexivity, shouldn't we? BOH.
The haircut does matter as it affects the banks ability to fund itself. If a bank has assets of 10 mn that it repos, if the haircut is 10%, the bank can only raise cash on 9 mn. The bank then has to look to more expensive sources to fill the funding gap. A high haircut therefore increases the cost of funding to the bank and consequently its customers.
Exactly – Greek debt is now 100% haircut! How do you fund a bank if you can't get cash? The Peter-Paul principle breaks down if you can't get enough from Peter.
Even the build-er(s) themselves, who are bound for NAMA, feel passionately enough about the fact that NAMA is affecting marketplace perceptions, that they are willing to challenge the same through the courts. Mary Carolan wrote in the IT, The proposed transfer breaches their property rights under the Constitution and European Convention on Human Rights, it is claimed.
Information asymmetries and surprises are seen as factors in contagion.
On that basis, does NAMA giving less information in relation to T2 increase the risk of investors losing confidence in Ireland?
Zhou says: On that basis, does NAMA giving less information in relation to T2 increase the risk of investors losing confidence in Ireland?
It depends on what other things investors connect NAMA to in their minds. If investors perceive NAMA to be interferring too much on the critical path(s) of other elements in the blueprint for Irish economic recovery, then NAMA could result in lost confidence. The obvious linkage being, requirements for re-capitalisation posted as sovereign debt, which results from too agressive a haircut on loans transferred to NAMA. That is a very precarious line to walk. But also, other odd kinds of connections can be made. For instance, David McWilliams made a very interesting point about the loss of 900 jobs in Quinn insurance business in the border counties. McWilliams noted how much of the problem stems from the fact, we wish to keep Anglo Irish bank open for business. Think about those three connections: Quinn insurance, Anglo Irish bank and NAMA. If those kinds of connections get too strong in the minds of investors, we are in a real spot of bother. BOH.
If NAMA never saw the light of day, would property prices be more or less than they are today?
I would have said prices would be lower without NAMA. Developers were led to believe that NAMA would hold their assets until the present madness of the crash in prices had been passed over and the LEV could be realised – this has meant that developers have avoided putting property on the market in a serious way. Developers know there is extra money available from NAMA (the €5bn pot) on easy terms to finish out projects.
NAMA has indicated that it may demolish which would tend to place a floor under values by removing supply.
All the optics surrounding NAMA have suggested it would stabilise property prices.
So I would have said the "reflexive behaviour" of the property market, as a result of NAMA, has been to maintain prices at artificially high prices. The reason that prices have continued to fall however – lack of credit, higher interest rates, lower wages, unemployment, higher taxes, emigration, overhang of supply, the ending of property mania – have nothing to do with NAMA.
So if NAMA wants to change the Valuation Date from 30th November, 2009 to 30th June, 2010 then banks can't (in my opinion) say that is unfair because NAMA has depressed prices.
The FT had a recent editorial on NAMA saying it was good for investors but probably as much as the State could afford and it included a bit of a moan that it wasn't a perfect hedge of the risk. As long as tapayers absorb the losses there'll be investors buying, especially if the markets have priced in generous margins over German bonds. If investors lose confidence in Ireland it'll probably be in the context of a much wider collapse also involving Portugal and Spain, if not others, in which case there will be widespread carnage everywhere.
I would be concerned about the extent to which the government continues to put the interests of investors over those of taxpayers. There has to be a point at where the government would stop pumping money into Anglo if things keep deteriorating, for example. I don't see many links being made as yet between the total bailout costs and how they will define aspects of life in Ireland for the next 15-20 years. The original decisions in Sept 08 were made on the assumption that things would be grand by now and they aren't.
Good reply, thanks for that. You ask: If NAMA never saw the light of day, would property prices be more or less than they are today?
What we do know is that Franco-German driven monetary policy (coupled with poor fiscal supervision from the EC), did lead to a period of unrealistic demand for property in the Irish market. We were told that influxes of new arrivals into Ireland, would put so much pressure upon our residential and commercial stock, that we needed to ramp up production of both to meet with demand. Failure to meet demand, would have resulted in worse inflation that we already had. We also know, that without EU intervention today into our banking policy, we would never have such a thing as NAMA (or NAMA bonds). By this logic of mine, both NAMA and the Irish property bubble were in large measure to do with Ireland's membership of a wider European economy. We the Irish voted in favour of that, and perhaps we made a mistake. We should not try to represent NAMA as a purely Irish solution to an Irish problem. NAMA is symptomatic of a wider struggle by a small peripheral state in Europe to integrate itself into a larger political, social and economic framework – or to use the common phrase, we are trying to become 'Europeans'. I am sure you will agree, the social progress made by this small state has been very impressive over the past decade. Ireland has become a destination on the map. Something it never was. I will not argue with you though, if your assertion is, economic planning in relation to Ireland, is still quite atrocious. BOH.
I suspect that NAMA are waiting for the Anglo situation to be resolved so they can provide a full document rather than a series of half measures. The T2 release strikes me as a "this is how far we've gotten, you wouldn't believe the messing from Anglo".
The T2 release strikes me as a "this is how far we've gotten, you wouldn't believe the messing from Anglo".
There is an important academic paper which deserves to be written on this subject in years to come. Difficulties experienced with nationalised banking institutions. Hopefully such a paper, if completed at some future time will shed important light on the subject, for all of our benefit. What was revealed last week, was how far advanced plans to nationalise INBS were, by late 2008. Long before the issue was on the radar of many economists here at this blog. Is this the area, in which Ireland needs more transparency in the future? Or does the scare the horses argument still hold any water? BOH.
Boh I cannot work out what your saying rennationalised banks.
We know two things now that we didn't understand before it Ireland. Nationalisation does not guarantee absolute and full cooperation by a banking institution. Also, that plans for nationalisation were being drafted and debate in the permanent government, long prior to Sept '08. The opportunity is now there, and will become even more feasible, for some economist to put some flesh on the bones on my two statements hence. BOH.
I expect you are right. What is with the change to "hoganmahew" by the way?
Thanks for the link to your upcoming Cantillon conference btw, a really interesting line up of discussions and speakers. I'll be busy at other stuff in September, but best of luck with it. An interesting couple of video presentations you might like to digest in the meantime, is about energy saving performance contracts, which they currently are employing in the United States. The video tutorials hit upon a number of different issues, all of which arise in debate and conversation about Ireland's future, how Ireland can economise and become more efficient with its resources etc. Something Karl Whelan said lately on another thread, about NAMA: Its ability or lack thereof to generate returns on assets, above the liabilities which the state is exposed to. I was reminded about that in the video presentation about energy saving performance contracts. One of the key things underlying this new method of procurement, seems to be the need to support research and development facilities with reliable and economical energy provisions, over a long period of time. BOH.


As business owners and executives, we support gradually raising the federal minimum wage to at least $12 by 2020. It's good for business, customers and our economy. Today's outdated minimum wage has far less buying power than it had in the 1960s. Stuck since 2009 at $7.25 an hour – just $15,080 a year – the minimum wage impoverishes working families and weakens the consumer spending at the heart of our economy.
Raising the minimum wage makes good business sense. Workers are also customers. Minimum wage increases boost sales at local businesses as workers buy goods and services they could not afford before. And nothing drives job creation more than consumer demand. Businesses also see cost savings from lower employee turnover and benefit from increased productivity, product quality and customer satisfaction. The most rigorous studies of the impact of actual minimum wage increases show they do not cause job loss. Raising the minimum wage will keep more dollars circulating in our local economy and reduce the growing strain on our social safety net caused by inadequate wages.
We support gradually raising the federal minimum wage to at least $12 an hour by 2020, and then adjusting it yearly to increase at the same rate as the median hourly wage. This will restore the lost value of the minimum wage, assure the wage floor does not erode again, and make future increases more predictable.
Support a higher living wage to strengthen businesses and our economy.


Every homebuyer needs information and support to help them maneuver through the sometimes confusing and often overwhelming home buying process. Even for veteran home owners, who are moving up to a larger home, the process can be perplexing and overwhelming. If you are a first time homebuyer, however, you will definitely need specific information to help you through the wonderful experience that is home buying.
When buying your first home, you should look to the professionals who assist you through the process. Choosing the right lender, realtor, home inspector and title company can make the difference between having a great first time home buying experience and a regretful experience.
The very first thing that you should do is consult with a lender to get pre-qualified so as to know how much home you can purchase. In order to do that, you need to find a lender. From the outside, choosing a lender might seem as simple as looking at the rates in the paper to see who will give you the best interest rate. However, it is not that simple. The rates and ads that appear in the paper are usually teasers to get you to call. I have found that many buyers that I have worked with either have used their local banks or have developed a relationship with a loan officer from a local mortgage company. Using your local bank or credit union can be good because they know you and want to make you happy to keep your business. Who ever you chose, make sure they can deliver what they promise.
I have found that many homebuyers do not put much thought into the Realtor that helps them purchase their home. Some of the ways that homebuyers have found their realtor include referral, internet, and open houses. Many Realtors have a strong referral base of past clients and friends where many homebuyer referrals originate. The referral is a wonderful way to find a Realtor because the person that referred you obviously trusts the Realtor to help you with your major purchase. Make certain the Realtor you chose can give you the time you need, as a first time homebuyer, to help you understand the process and make the right decisions.
Two of the lesser considered professionals that play a role in your home buying experience are the home inspector and the title company (or attorney). Choosing competent home inspector is important to the quality of your home inspection. In choosing a home inspector, you should interview them to understand their philosophy in conducting the home inspection and what kinds of defects are important to address. In searching for a home inspector, one good place to start is the American Society of Home Inspectors (www.ashi.org).
Choosing a title company or title attorney can be a bit more confusing because title work and title insurance seems very straight forward. You should interview a few title companies or attorneys before you choose so you can get an idea how they will conduct your settlement. Again, the title company or attorney should give you enough time so as you can understand the legal issues that surround your home purchase.
If you are uncertain where to begin in choosing the right professionals to help you in your purchase, you might consider attending first time home buyer classes. One place to start is the Housing & Communities Initiatives, Inc. (www.hcii.org), a local non-profit organization.
As a first time homebuyer, you will require additional time and support from the professionals who will help you buy your first home. Referrals and interviewing is the good way to start to develop the necessary relationship to build your trust.
This column is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice. This column was originally published 8/15/2005 in the Montgomery County Sentinel. Copyright Dan Krell 2005.
The real estate market in the Metro DC area has broken sales records for the last few years. Each year sales numbers and average home prices surpass the previous year by a wide margin. Besides the many homebuyers who are buying homes for their own families to inhabit, there are the devout few who are always on the lookout for a bargain home to turn into a rental property. With home sale prices rising seemingly as fast as a jet taking off the runway at Reagan National Airport, it may be a wonder how, or more appropriately why, investors buying homes for rental properties.
Serious investors are a remarkable breed. They come from all walks of life and socioeconomic backgrounds. Although they have a diverse background, their one commonality is accumulating wealth. The goal for the average investor is to accumulate real estate and sit on it as the value appreciates. The payoff for the investor is when they sell off their assets and retire.
This over simplified and brief article is an overview of some difficulties that most real estate investors encounter. Some of the difficulties that many real estate investors encounter are tenants, maintenance of the property, and cash flow.
Finding good tenants to rent your properties is essential for success. A good tenant is described as one who pays in a timely manner and who will treat your home as if it was theirs. To find tenants, you can advertise in the local papers for tenants, subscribe to placement companies, or hire a professional management company to do all the work for you. The best tenants usually come by referral.
Making sure the prospective tenants have good references is essential. One way to do that is to ask them for a recent copy of their credit report, which would report any past delinquencies. Rental companies usually report delinquencies and non-payments to credit reporting companies like Equifax, Trans Union, and Experion. If they do not have a credit report, some investors accept references from past landlords.
Once your rental property is leased, it is important to keep it maintained. Good tenants will usually do the basic maintenance for you. If things go wrong, however, it will be up to you fix the problem. It never fails, the emergency calls will come in the middle of the night or while you're on vacation. You will need to respond to the emergencies fairly quickly as you build your relationship with your tenants.
The most important issue with a rental property is cash flow. Cash flow is the perpetual incoming of cash so the mortgages and other real estate related expenses can be paid. Cash flow can be positive or negative. The goal with cash flow is to at least come out even, as most investors bank on the appreciation of the property itself for wealth building.
To help overcome the pitfalls of owning investment properties, some investors hire professional management companies. These companies can help find quality tenants, collect rents, and maintain the property. As the art of being a landlord is becoming legally complex, the management company and a good attorney can help you through the difficulties.
Anyone that is serious about beginning a career as a real estate investor should attend classes and find out more about the field to make an informed decision. As a real estate investor, you will find that there are many complex issues that require experience and support. However, once mastered, it can be very rewarding.
This column is not intended to provide nor should it be relied upon for legal and financial advice.
This column was originally published in the Montgomery County Sentinel 8/8/2005. Copyright Dan Krell 2005.
Moving up has been a right of passage for families for years. Families have been moving up for one reason or another, usually because of the need for space or just to move to a new neighborhood. However, spiraling home prices made many to re-think the usual move up, and instead make improvements on their homes. Rather than buying the four bedroom colonial they need due to a growing family, homeowners are adding rooms or enlarging the spaces they already inhabit.
If you are unsure of making improvements or selling your home, there are some factors to consider. RemodelorMove.com (www.remodelormove.com) lists the top reasons for remodeling and not moving as: 1) you like remodeling; 2) you like your home floor plan; 3) you like your neighbors; 4) you like your yard; 5) you have a great location; 6) you will get exactly what you want; and 7) you feel that it can enhance the value of your home. As you are trying to decide whether or not you remodel or move, you may find these reasons in line with your decision. This web site has lots of resources and information to help you make your decision.
If you decide to remodel rather than move, there are some considerations. According to RemodelorMove.com you should consider how long you are going to be in your home, the costs involved, and the timing of the remodeling before you move.
If you are planning to stay in your home less than a year, you have to weigh the actual cost of the improvements against the return you may get on your upcoming sale. However, if you plan to be in your home for a few more years or longer, the return on your investment should not be as much of a factor as personal pleasure and comfort.
If you are concerned with cost vs. value, a great resource that every turns to for their annual report is Remodeling Magazine, which can be found at Remodeling Online (http://www.remodeling.hw.net). According to Remodeling Magazine, return on investment depends on the value of the house itself, the value of similar homes in the immediate area, and the rate property values are changing in the surrounding neighborhoods. Some projects will recoup more than 100% of the original investment, however overall in 2004 the return of investment was 80.3%. The nationwide data they collect for their annual reports from Home-Tech Information Systems, a remodeling estimating software company in Bethesda, Md. HomeTech collects current cost information quarterly from a nationwide network of remodeling contractors, and its cost figures include a 40% margin. Costs are adjusted to account for city-to-city pricing variations.
The following are the top improvements listed in the Remodeling Magazine's annual report in order of return on investment: minor kitchen remodeling -92.9%; siding replacement-92.8%; midrange bathroom remodeling- 90.1%; deck addition- 86.7%; upscale bathroom remodeling- 85.6%; and window replacement- 84.5%. You can view the rest of the 2004 report on the website.
Both selling and remodeling can be large propositions that can bring a lot of joy and regret. There are many resources at the library and the internet to help make your decision. Additionally, you should consult a local contractor and a Realtor to assist with costs of improvements and neighborhood home values.
This column was originally published in the Montgomery County Sentinel 8/2/2005. Copyright Dan Krell 2005.
Because not all listed homes sell, you should be strategizing how to make the most of your sale. What to do? Here are some home selling tips .
Think about the basics that go into a successful home sale. The first is to price the home according to the comparables in the neighborhood. The second is to consider the condition of the home. The third is to have a marketing plan. And lastly, you should have a close working relationship with your Realtor.
Of course your home should be priced according to the comparables in the neighborhood, and progress should be gauged with the other homes on the market in the neighborhood. That means besides pricing according to the homes that are comparable, your Realtor should expect results within the parameters based on those sales also. Regardless of what you hear, the seller sets the selling price. Your Realtor is only an advisor providing you the data and opinion.
Comparing your home to similar homes that sold is critical in deciding a sale price. Comparables are homes that match your home in style and size. If you have a three bedroom rambler, you should compare your home to other three bedroom ramblers in then neighborhood. Typically, comparables are restricted within a subdivision or within about 0.5 mile to 1 mile. And sales not older than six months (unless there is a lack of home sales).
Why is your home's condition important when deciding a sale price? If your home has deferred maintenance or hasn't been updated for twenty years, it's not going to get the same price as the renovated similar home across the street. Be honest with yourself about the home's condition. If your home is not in move-in condition, think about the cost of renovating in the price along with market conditions. If it's a buyer's market, you may have to consider a lower price or the home will languish waiting for a buyer. If it's a seller's market, there are more home buyers willing to buy a home with the intention of renovating it.
You need a roadmap to success. If your Realtor has not yet presented you with a marketing plan, ask for one. Your Realtor should have a plan of action to sell your home. Putting a sign in front of your home and entering the information in the MLS is not typically enough sell a home. Market conditions frequently change, and your Realtor should have a concrete plan to sell your home. The plan should include not only how the home will be marketed, but how the agent will take you from contract to closing.
The final aspect that is important in selling your home is the relationship between you and your Realtor. Besides having confidence in your Realtor, you should feel comfortable being honest (for good and bad). It's not a good sign if your Realtor is often defensive when you express concerns and needs. Your Realtor, on the other hand, should also be honest, as well as timely with information concerning your home. Besides communicating the activity of the potential home buyers, they should also keep you up to date with the neighborhood market keeping an eye on the other homes on the market.
How will you market your home and what will you do if the market changes? When you are interviewing Realtors to sell your home ask about their marketing plan. Ask about a home pricing strategy. Ask how your home's condition affects the price. Ask how the agent communicates and what you should expect from them.
It is not unreasonable for home buyers to seek assurances about the homes they purchase. One method for obtaining a sense of confidence about the home is having a home inspection. Sometimes it is not as much as wanting to know what needs to be fixed as much as wanting to know what they were getting into, as one of my clients casually stated. However, home inspectors are not perfect and there are numerous conditions in the home that could go undetected. The home seller golden rule is disclose-disclose-disclose.
In the past, it used to be buyer beware. Unscrupulous home sellers racked up complaints. Consumer advocates pushed some legislatures to enact a property disclosure law. Property disclosure laws have been enacted in about thirty states. Here in Maryland, the law has been was around since 1994.
It had been incorrectly thought by home sellers (and some real estate agents), that if the disclaimer is given, the homeowner did not have to provide any information at all about the home- including relevant material facts and latent defects. In fact, some home sellers would wrongly choose the disclaimer statement to not reveal material facts or latent defects.
The disclosure addenda are constantly changing. A significant change at the time of this writing to the required Maryland disclosure still requires the homeowner to provide either the disclosure statement or disclaimer. Except the added burden of disclosing known latent defects is also required, even if you disclaim.
If you are selling your home or thinking of selling your home in the future, you should discuss with your Realtor the Maryland disclosure/disclaimer statement and recent changes to the disclosure laws. If you have any doubt about your obligations as a home seller or do not understand the disclosure law, you should consider consulting an attorney.
The golden rule of disclosure is to disclose. An issue that is disclosed to a home buyer before they enter into a contract with you is a piece of information that the home buyer will keep in mind as they purchase the home. However, undisclosed issues can come back to bite you, even after the sale.


– Metcon: Today the challenge will be how to sustain efficiency from the first 15 minute AMRAP to the second. Both workouts are similar yet will require different strategies. The reps in workout #2 are not divisible by 2 which will make you have to think a bit more on purpose. Effort should be around 80% today.
or Make up an "extra credit" session you missed from this past week.


text:
package org.elasticsearch.action.admin.indices.create;

import static org.elasticsearch.common.settings.Settings.readSettingsFromStream;
import static org.elasticsearch.common.settings.Settings.writeSettingsToStream;
import static org.elasticsearch.common.settings.Settings.Builder.EMPTY_SETTINGS;

import java.io.IOException;
import java.io.UncheckedIOException;
import java.util.HashSet;
import java.util.Map;
import java.util.Objects;
import java.util.Set;

import org.elasticsearch.ElasticsearchGenerationException;
import org.elasticsearch.Version;
import org.elasticsearch.action.IndicesRequest;
import org.elasticsearch.action.admin.indices.alias.Alias;
import org.elasticsearch.action.support.ActiveShardCount;
import org.elasticsearch.action.support.IndicesOptions;
import org.elasticsearch.action.support.master.AcknowledgedRequest;
import org.elasticsearch.common.ParseField;
import org.elasticsearch.common.bytes.BytesArray;
import org.elasticsearch.common.bytes.BytesReference;
import org.elasticsearch.common.io.stream.StreamInput;
import org.elasticsearch.common.io.stream.StreamOutput;
import org.elasticsearch.common.settings.Settings;
import org.elasticsearch.common.xcontent.XContentBuilder;
import org.elasticsearch.common.xcontent.XContentFactory;
import org.elasticsearch.common.xcontent.XContentHelper;
import org.elasticsearch.common.xcontent.XContentType;

import io.crate.Constants;

/**
 * A request to create an index.
 * <p>
 * The index created can optionally be created with {@link #settings(org.elasticsearch.common.settings.Settings)}.
 *
 * @see org.elasticsearch.client.IndicesAdminClient#create(CreateIndexRequest)
 * @see CreateIndexResponse
 */
public class CreateIndexRequest extends AcknowledgedRequest<CreateIndexRequest> implements IndicesRequest {

    public static final ParseField MAPPINGS = new ParseField("mappings");
    public static final ParseField SETTINGS = new ParseField("settings");
    public static final ParseField ALIASES = new ParseField("aliases");

    private String cause = "";

    private String index;

    private Settings settings = EMPTY_SETTINGS;

    private String mapping = null;

    private final Set<Alias> aliases = new HashSet<>();

    private ActiveShardCount waitForActiveShards = ActiveShardCount.DEFAULT;

    /**
     * Constructs a new request to create an index with the specified name.
     */
    public CreateIndexRequest(String index) {
        this(index, EMPTY_SETTINGS);
    }

    /**
     * Constructs a new request to create an index with the specified name and settings.
     */
    public CreateIndexRequest(String index, Settings settings) {
        this.index = index;
        this.settings = settings;
    }

    @Override
    public String[] indices() {
        return new String[]{index};
    }

    @Override
    public IndicesOptions indicesOptions() {
        return IndicesOptions.strictSingleIndexNoExpandForbidClosed();
    }

    /**
     * The index name to create.
     */
    public String index() {
        return index;
    }

    /**
     * The settings to create the index with.
     */
    public Settings settings() {
        return settings;
    }

    /**
     * The cause for this index creation.
     */
    public String cause() {
        return cause;
    }

    /**
     * The settings to create the index with.
     */
    public CreateIndexRequest settings(Settings.Builder settings) {
        this.settings = settings.build();
        return this;
    }

    /**
     * The settings to create the index with.
     */
    public CreateIndexRequest settings(Settings settings) {
        this.settings = settings;
        return this;
    }

    /**
     * Sets the mapping that will be used when the index gets created.
     *
     * @param source The mapping source
     * @param xContentType The content type of the source
     */
    public CreateIndexRequest mapping(String source, XContentType xContentType) {
        return mapping(new BytesArray(source), xContentType);
    }

    /**
     * Adds mapping that will be added when the index gets created.
     *
     * @param type   The mapping type
     * @param source The mapping source
     * @param xContentType the content type of the mapping source
     */
    private CreateIndexRequest mapping(BytesReference source, XContentType xContentType) {
        if (this.mapping != null) {
            throw new IllegalStateException("mapping already defined");
        }
        Objects.requireNonNull(xContentType);
        try {
            mapping = XContentHelper.convertToJson(source, xContentType);
            return this;
        } catch (IOException e) {
            throw new UncheckedIOException("failed to convert to json", e);
        }
    }

    /**
     * The cause for this index creation.
     */
    public CreateIndexRequest cause(String cause) {
        this.cause = cause;
        return this;
    }

    /**
     * Sets the mapping that will be used when the index gets created.
     *
     * @param source The mapping source
     */
    public CreateIndexRequest mapping(Map<String, Object> source) {
        if (this.mapping != null) {
            throw new IllegalStateException("mapping already defined");
        }
        try {
            XContentBuilder builder = XContentFactory.contentBuilder(XContentType.JSON);
            builder.map(source);
            return mapping(BytesReference.bytes(builder), builder.contentType());
        } catch (IOException e) {
            throw new ElasticsearchGenerationException("Failed to generate [" + source + "]", e);
        }
    }

    /**
     * Adds an alias that will be associated with the index when it gets created
     */
    public CreateIndexRequest alias(Alias alias) {
        this.aliases.add(alias);
        return this;
    }

    public String mapping() {
        return this.mapping;
    }

    public Set<Alias> aliases() {
        return this.aliases;
    }

    public ActiveShardCount waitForActiveShards() {
        return waitForActiveShards;
    }

    /**
     * Sets the number of shard copies that should be active for index creation to return.
     * Defaults to {@link ActiveShardCount#DEFAULT}, which will wait for one shard copy
     * (the primary) to become active. Set this value to {@link ActiveShardCount#ALL} to
     * wait for all shards (primary and all replicas) to be active before returning.
     * Otherwise, use {@link ActiveShardCount#from(int)} to set this value to any
     * non-negative integer, up to the number of copies per shard (number of replicas + 1),
     * to wait for the desired amount of shard copies to become active before returning.
     * Index creation will only wait up until the timeout value for the number of shard copies
     * to be active before returning.  Check {@link CreateIndexResponse#isShardsAcknowledged()} to
     * determine if the requisite shard copies were all started before returning or timing out.
     *
     * @param waitForActiveShards number of active shard copies to wait on
     */
    public CreateIndexRequest waitForActiveShards(ActiveShardCount waitForActiveShards) {
        this.waitForActiveShards = waitForActiveShards;
        return this;
    }

    public CreateIndexRequest(StreamInput in) throws IOException {
        super(in);
        cause = in.readString();
        index = in.readString();
        settings = readSettingsFromStream(in);
        if (in.getVersion().onOrAfter(Version.V_5_0_0)) {
            mapping = in.readOptionalString();
        } else {
            int size = in.readVInt();
            for (int i = 0; i < size; i++) {
                in.readString(); // type, was always "default"
                String source = in.readString();
                mapping = source;
            }
        }
        int aliasesSize = in.readVInt();
        for (int i = 0; i < aliasesSize; i++) {
            aliases.add(new Alias(in));
        }
        if (in.getVersion().before(Version.V_4_3_0)) {
            in.readBoolean(); // updateAllTypes
        }
        waitForActiveShards = ActiveShardCount.readFrom(in);
    }

    @Override
    public void writeTo(StreamOutput out) throws IOException {
        super.writeTo(out);
        out.writeString(cause);
        out.writeString(index);
        writeSettingsToStream(settings, out);
        if (out.getVersion().onOrAfter(Version.V_5_0_0)) {
            out.writeOptionalString(mapping);
        } else {
            if (mapping == null) {
                out.writeVInt(0);
            } else {
                out.writeVInt(1);
                out.writeString(Constants.DEFAULT_MAPPING_TYPE);
                out.writeString(mapping);
            }
        }
        out.writeVInt(aliases.size());
        for (Alias alias : aliases) {
            alias.writeTo(out);
        }
        if (out.getVersion().before(Version.V_4_3_0)) {
            out.writeBoolean(true); // updateAllTypes
        }
        waitForActiveShards.writeTo(out);
    }
}

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaGithub


Powershell in windows 10 includes the command new selfsignedcertificate. You can use native powershell cmdlets to generate self signed certificate. So you need to install one of those first and then open the developer command prompt for vs2015 to use makecert.
How to create a self signed certificate windows 7. It provides more flexibility than the very simple create self signed certificate option in iis and it isnt as complicated to use as makecertexe. Click ok to view the local certificate store. Add the self signed certificate to trusted root certificate authorities click on the start menu and click run.
Use the new selfsignedcertificate cmdlet to create a self signed root certificate. Its time to export the self signed certificate. Now we have to create the certificate.
Generating a self signed certificate using openssl. I have successfully been creating self signed certificates for use in my wcf intranet application for some time now. In the console go to file addremove snap in.
How to create self signed certificate on windows prerequisite. After windows 8 makecert is included in windows software development kit sdk and windows driver kit wdk. But when trying to create the self signed certificate on the local machine windows 7 enterprise it.
From a computer running windows 10 or windows server 2016 open a windows powershell console with elevated privileges. Openssl is an open source implementation of the ssl and tls protocols. Click on the file menu and click addremove snap in.
If you have windows 10 or windows server 2016 os. Hello one option can be to use iis. Before jumping to the certificate generation you need to make sure.
Leave local computer. You may receive a uac prompt accept it and an empty management console will open. However self signed certificates should never be used for production or public facing websites.
For additional parameter information see new selfsignedcertificate. Type in mmc and click ok. Create a self signed root certificate.
Go to start run or windows key r and enter mmc. I just got a new machine with windows 7 on it and cannot now use the same code to create and load the certificates in that os. Hi all i am in the process of creating a domain joined hdinsight cluster for which we need to have a valid ldap certificate from the issuing authority or create a self signed certificate.
Click on computer account and click next. It provides an encryption transport layer on top of the normal communications layer allowing. Go to start menu type.
This topic tells you how to generate self signed ssl certificate requests using the openssl toolkit to enable https connections. Add certificates from the left side.


text:
Lawsuit Filed against Archdiocese by Man Who Claims He Was Sexually Abused by Priest
By Stephanie Baumer
KMOV
http://www.kmov.com/story/30307226/lawsuit-filed-against-archdiocese-by-man-who-claims-he-was-sexually-abused-by-priest
A lawsuit has been filed against the Archdiocese of St. Louis by a man who claims he was sexually abused between 1977 and 1981.
The lawsuit alleges that Father Leroy Valentine sexually abused the plaintiff while he was a student at the Church of the Immacolata.
According to the lawsuit, Father Valentine has been accused of childhood sexual abuse multiple times in the past and resigned as an associate pastor at St. Thomas the Apostle in 2002 after another child sexual abuse allegation. In 2013, Archbishop Robert Carlson stated that an allegation of child sexual abuse against Father Valentine was found to be credible.
"I approached the Archdiocese multiple times for help and tried to get assistance without getting lawyers involved," the plaintiff, called John Doe 121 in the lawsuit, said in a statement. "Filing a lawsuit was my last resort and due to their inaction."
In addition to the Archdiocese, Father Valentine and Archbishop Carlson were also named in the lawsuit.

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


I have some handcuffs that look like these hanging to the left side of this site page. No markings except the letters USIS, someone told me it was for United States Indian Service. They are rusty, no key, all other parts are loose and not rusted/froze up. They will not lock probably because the springs inside are too rusty. I found them several years ago in west Texas.
Are they worth any thing?


Your second skin. A new fabric update that is softer and flattering. The styles are no longer bonded but sewn. The fabric has a very soft feel, almost a second skin feeling and does not require any lining. There are lighter styles with only underwire or removable cups. New colors to merchandise with Cruise and Spring 2019.


The Dooars or Duars (/duˈɑːrz/) are de awwuviaw fwoodpwains in nordeastern India dat wie souf of de outer foodiwws of de Himawayas and norf of de Brahmaputra River basin, uh-hah-hah-hah. This region is about 30 km (19 mi) wide and stretches over about 350 km (220 mi) from de Teesta River in West Bengaw to de Dhanshiri River in Assam. The region forms de gateway to Bhutan. It is part of de Terai-Duar savanna and grasswands ecoregion.
Dooars means 'doors' in Assamese, Bengawi, Maidiwi, Bhojpuri, and Magahi wanguages. There are 18 passages or gateways between de hiwws in Bhutan and de pwains in India. This region is divided by de Sankosh River into Eastern and Western Dooars, consisting of an area of 880 km2 (340 sq mi). The Western Dooars are awso known as de Bengaw Dooars, and de Eastern Dooars awso as de Assam Dooars. Dooars is anawogous wif de Terai in nordern India and soudern Nepaw.
The Dooars bewonged to de Kamata Kingdom under de Koch dynasty; and taking advantage of de weakness of de Koch kingdom in subseqwent times, Bhutan took possession of de Dooars. This region was controwwed by de kingdom of Bhutan when de British annexed it in 1865 after de Bhutan War under de command of Captain Hedayat Awi. The area was divided into two parts: de eastern part was merged wif Goawpara district in Assam and de western part was turned into a new district named Western Dooars. Again in de year 1869, de name was changed to Jawpaiguri District. After de end of de British ruwe in India in 1947, de Dooars acceded into de dominion of India and it merged wif de Union of India shortwy afterwards in 1949.
The Dooars region powiticawwy constitutes de pwains of Darjeewing District, de whowe of Jawpaiguri district and Awipurduar district and de upper region of Cooch Behar district in West Bengaw and de districts of Dhubri, Kokrajhar, Barpeta, Goawpara and Bongaigaon in de state of Assam.
The awtitude of Dooars area ranges from 90 to 1,750 m. Innumerabwe streams and rivers fwow drough dese fertiwe pwains from de mountains of Bhutan, uh-hah-hah-hah. In Assam, de major rivers are de Brahmaputra and Manas. In nordern West Bengaw, de major river is de Teesta besides many oders wike de Jawdhaka, Murti, Torsha, Sankosh, Dyna, Karatoya, Raidak, and Kawchini rivers, among oders.
The average rainfaww of de area is about 3,500 mm. Monsoon generawwy starts from de middwe of May and continues tiww de end of September. Winters are cowd wif foggy mornings and nights. Summer is miwd and constitutes a very short period of de year.
The native peopwe of dis region generawwy have Mongowoid features. They are composed of numerous tribes, incwuding de Bodo de Rabha, de Mech, de Toto, de Koch Rajbongshi, in Assam and Bengaw, de Tamang/Murmi, de Limbu,de Rai, de Lepcha in Bengaw.
Apart from de tribaw popuwation, a warge Bengawi popuwation (mostwy dispwaced from de den East Pakistan (now Bangwadesh) by de Partition of Bengaw) awso popuwate de Dooars and deir cuwture emerged wif wocaw peopwe.
The Dooars are famous for de tea gardens which were pwanted by de British. For working in de gardens, dey imported wabour from Nepaw and de Chota Nagpur and Sandaw Parganas. The Oraons, Mundas, Kharia, Mahawi, Lohara, Chik Baraik and Santaw are de tribaws from dese areas. The tribaw of Chotanagpur origin are empwoyed in tea gardens, which started production during de 1870s. Before de settwement of oder communities, dese peopwe converted de forests into viwwages and busties (agricuwture viwwage). The remnants of dese tribaw peopwe form a majority of de popuwation in Western Dooars.
The Dooars is a warge region and is dotted wif many towns and cities. The wargest city(ies) in de whowe region stretching from de Darjeewing foodiwws to de Arunachaw Pradesh foodiwws is Siwiguri and Jawpaiguri, which bof partwy wie in de Terai region rader de Dooars, geographicawwy. This nordern Bengaw cities are weww connected wif de rest of country by road, air and raiwway and is de business hub of de region, uh-hah-hah-hah.
The oder major cities are Kokrajhar, Bongaigaon, Goawpara, Barpeta and Dhubri in Assam. Cooch Behar, Awipurduar, Dhupguri, Mawbazar, Mainaguri and Birpara are de major cities of de Dooars in West Bengaw, and Kishanganj in Bihar. Awso, de commerciaw capitaw of Bhutan, Phuentshowing, near Jaigaon, can be considered a part of dis region, uh-hah-hah-hah.
Historicawwy, de region has suffered from ednic strife. The Bodowand agitation in Assam for a separate state for de Bodo peopwe and de Kamtapur or Greater Cooch Behar movement for a Kamtapur state in nordern Bengaw for de Rajbongshis are de two most vociferous ones. The Adivasi (Tribaw) of Dooars are demanding autonomy under de Sixf Scheduwe of de Indian Constitution, uh-hah-hah-hah.
The economy of Dooars is based on dree "T"s – Tea, Tourism and Timber. The main industry of de Dooars region is de tea industry. Thousands of peopwe are engaged in de tea estates and factories. Severaw peopwe are awso engaged in de cuwtivation of bettwenuts which awso contributes to de economy. Cuwtivation of oder crops is done mainwy for wocaw consumption, uh-hah-hah-hah.
The area is dotted by severaw nationaw parks and wiwdwife sanctuaries which attract a wot of tourists from aww over India and abroad, making it an important contributor to de economy and awso empwoyer of a number of peopwe.
The timber industry, bof wegawwy and iwwegawwy, fwourishes in dis region, uh-hah-hah-hah. A number of saw miwws, pwywood industries and oder awwied business awso act as an important contributor to de economy.
The Dooars act as doorways to Bhutan; dus, de export-import industry awso fwourishes in de area. The towns of Jaigaon, Siwiguri and Phuentshowing are important hubs of de export-import industry.
As de region is near de internationaw borders of Bhutan, Nepaw and Bangwadesh, de Border Security Force (BSF), de Centraw Reserve Powice Force (CRPF), Indian army and Indian Air Force maintain a warge presence in de area. This weads to a warge popuwation of semi-permanent residents who bring money into de wocaw economy.
The beauty of de region wies not onwy in its tea gardens but awso in de dense jungwes dat make up de countryside. Many wiwdwife sanctuaries and nationaw park wike Manas Nationaw Park in Assam, Jawdapara Nationaw Park, Buxa Nationaw Park, Gorumara Nationaw Park, Chapramari Wiwdwife Reserve and de Mahananda Wiwdwife Sanctuary in West Bengaw are wocated in dis region, uh-hah-hah-hah.
A number of rare endangered species of animaws wike tiger, rhinoceros and ewephant make deir habitat in de forests of de Dooars. Oder animaws incwudes different types of deer, bison, birds and reptiwes. A raiwway wine runs drough de tea gardens and de various protected areas and a number of ewephants have been kiwwed in cowwisions wif trains.
Nationaw Highway 31 near Lataguri, West Bengaw.
The main mode of transport in de area is roadways. Most of de pwaces are weww connected by roads. NH31 is de main highway of de area. Asian Highway AH48 is being constructed drough de Dooars region, uh-hah-hah-hah.
Reguwar bus services provided by Norf Bengaw State Transport Corporation and Assam State Transport Corporation and oder private parties run between aww de important pwaces of de area. Shared jeeps and maxi-taxies are qwite popuwar in de area.
There are some important raiwway stations in de area such as New Jawpaiguri, New Cooch Behar, Awipurduar, New Bongaigaon, hasimara, Fawakata etc. An important raiw route between Awipurduar Junction and New Jawpaiguri via Mawbazar covers awmost de entire Dooars.
Two important airports of de area are Bagdogra Airport near Siwiguri and Guwahati Airport. Anoder airport is proposed to start in Cooch Behar shortwy.
^ a b Debnaf, S. (2010). The Dooars in Historicaw Transition (PDF). Shiv Mandir: N. L. Pubwishers.
^ Dinerstein, E., Loucks, C. (2001). "Terai-Duar savanna and grasswands". Terrestriaw Ecoregions. Worwd Wiwdwife Fund.
Wikimedia Commons has media rewated to Dooars.
This page was wast edited on 15 Apriw 2019, at 01:44 (UTC).


text:
Beavers Can't Keep Pace With Bulldogs, But Still Alive In State Race
Tenino senior Morgan Miner runs down the field with the ball in the Beavers 4-0 loss to Montesano in the district semifinals Nov. 4.
Ryan Sparks / The Daily World
Posted Thursday, November 4, 2021 11:40 pm
By The Chronicle staff
For the third time this season, the Tenino girls soccer team couldn't keep up with league champion Montesano, falling in the district semifinals, 4-0, on Thursday.
On the statsheet, it didn't look nearly as lopsided, as the Bulldogs only outshot the Beavers 9-6, but the scoreboard was a different story.
"We didn't come out with enough intensity," Beavers coach Kevin Schultz said. "We had one of our worst stretches of the season at the worst time."
That stretch was in the first half, when the Bulldogs scored all four of their goals, and three during an eight-minute stretch.
The loss means that the Beavers will play in a do-or-die game against Elma for third-place in districts and a state berth on Saturday at Noon. The Beavers lost to Elma twice in the regular season.
"We have to figure out how to score goals on them," Schultz said. "We have to be aware of their counterattacks. We have a team of seniors with experience in these situations. They know what has to happen."
Bearcat Boys Bash Visiting Black Hills in Dual Match
Pirates Sink Riverhawks on the Road
Beavers Can't Keep Up With Cruisers at Home
Warriors Grind Out Second-Straight Win


Laura works from home, and offers amongst other things, reflexology for pregnant ladies and pregnancy massage. Both treatments are very effective at balancing the body whilst it's going through the changes of pregnancy. Contact her on 07900342573.


The application deadline at North Georgia Technical College is quickly approaching on Tuesday, July 31, for the Fall semester beginning August 16. The $25 application fee is waived for the month of July meaning prospective students can apply for free until the deadline. Students needing any financial assistance may contact the NGTC Foundation at 706-754-7714.
In addition to the free application, the college has recently announced its tuition-free certificate and diploma programs. Over 30 areas, such as welding, early childhood education, nursing, electrical lineman, automotive, commercial truck driving and others are included in the free tuition program. Tuition assistance is also available through federal programs such as HOPE and PELL or by applying with the North Georgia Technical College Foundation.
Free applications are available in person, or by visiting www.northgatech.edu.


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text:
The Chain Gang Dec. 4, 2015
Arby's Sent The Daily Show Free Lunch After Every Insult
"Arby's: Isn't there anywhere else we can eat?"
During his Daily Show days, Jon Stewart loathed Arby's so much that Arby's people wondered if it was all maybe secretly a reverse-psychology native ad. That theory may give the chain too much credit, because based on what an executive tells the AP (in an interview that was supposed to be about the chain's new Times Square store), chief marketing officer Rob Lynch says Arby's would always send The Daily Show crew free lunch if Arby's got lambasted the night before, starting with that very first insult:
We had to make a tough decision. Do we send him a letter saying, "We can't believe you're doing this — we use the highest quality ingredients." Or do we play along?
So we sent him and his crew lunch, and they sent us back a letter saying, "Usually when we make fun of people, they send us nasty letters. You sent us lunch. That's awesome."
We were like, "Yes! They loved the food, they like us. That was the perfect decision."
And then it happened again. And it happened again. And again.
Every time, we sent them lunch. Sometimes it was easier, and sometimes it was harder.
Lynch says the one time Stewart used the faux tagline "Arby's: It's like your stomach got kicked in the balls," it was hard to give out free food. But the company did it anyway, which, just for the record, means they also catered lunch after these other taglines came out of Stewart's mouth:
• "Arby's: It's like shock and awe for your bowels."
• "Arby's: Proof Jon Stewart cannot destroy a brand by telling people what's in it."
• "Arby's: You think pain and grief are hard to digest."
• "Arby's: Because your hunger is stronger than your memory."
• "Arby's: Isn't there anywhere else we can eat?"
the chain gang
Arby's Sent Daily Show Free Lunches


US President Donald Trump has not ordered the withdrawal of recently imposed sanctions against North Korea, administration officials say.
Mr Trump caused confusion on Friday when he tweeted that "additional large-scale sanctions" would be withdrawn.
It was thought he was referring to the treasury's move to blacklist two China-based shipping companies suspected of illegally trading with North Korea.
But officials later said he was referring to future sanctions.
Citing unnamed administration officials, US media reported that Mr Trump was in fact cancelling measures that had yet to be announced and were scheduled for the coming days.
It had been thought that his tweet was referring to sanctions announced by the Treasury on Thursday. Mr Trump sowed further confusion by referring to sanctions he said had been announced on Friday.
The confusion appeared to highlight differences within the Trump administration on how the US should approach relations with Pyongyang.
While the White House said the president felt the sanctions were unnecessary, National Security Adviser John Bolton said Thursday's treasury sanctions were "important".
In a tweet, he wrote that "the maritime industry must do more to stop North Korea's illicit shipping practices".
The US Treasury said it had acted because the companies had helped North Korea to evade international and US sanctions by engaging in ship-to-ship transfers with North Korean tankers or exporting North Korean coal.
Just hours after the announcement, North Korea withdrew from the inter-Korean liaison office. It was not clear if the two events were connected, and Pyongyang did not comment on the latest sanctions.
The liaison office, located in the North Korean border city of Kaesong, had allowed officials from North and South Korea to communicate on a regular basis for the first time since the Korean War.
The North Korean pullout followed a failed summit between President Trump and North Korea's leader Kim Jong-un in Hanoi, Vietnam, last month.
In a tweet on Friday, Mr Trump wrote: "It was announced today by the US Treasury that additional large-scale Sanctions would be added to those already existing Sanctions on North Korea.
But there were no new US sanctions announced on Friday, leading many to believe he was referring to Thursday's measures.
North Korea has been the subject of a series of US and international sanctions over Pyongyang's development of nuclear weapons and missile tests.


text:
politico.com
The Friday Cover
The Friday Cover is POLITICO Magazine's email of the week's best, delivered to your inbox every Friday morning.
Mark Peterson/Redux
Reinventing Skid Row
When hipsters met the homeless, and made a new downtown L.A.
By ED LEIBOWITZ
Ed Leibowitz is a writer-at-large at Los Angeles Magazine.
At the Pussy & Pooch boutique on Main Street in downtown Los Angeles, the array of bejeweled collars, canine aromatherapy candles and post-modern cat scratchers demonstrates just how good life has become for the privileged pets of the neighborhood. Pussy & Pooch even boasts a Pawbar, providing local Chihuahuas and English bulldogs with the kind of fine dining experience that their owners routinely enjoy at the cafes crowding the avenue. Among the standouts on the Pawbar menu is a plate of fresh raw meats drizzled with gourmet sauce, accompanied by Bowser beer and followed by a dish of Yoghund frozen yogurt. "You live a stylish and progressive lifestyle," the shop assures visitors to its website, "and your pet companion should too!"
It wasn't so long ago that the only dogs and cats in this rapidly reinventing stretch of downtown L.A. were the strays that darted across Main—desperate and without shelter, like the men and women who stumbled on its sidewalks, or squeezed their way beneath accordian gates at night for the relative safety of the garbage-choked entrances to what had once been some of the most opulent office buildings west of the Mississippi.
This is Skid Row, or at least the far western border of it, and for several decades, the only signs of commercial life along this stretch of Main Street were dive bars, grimy convenience stores and gritty "single-room occupancy" hotels, home to the poorest of the city's poor. Yet today the sidewalks bustle outside shops selling vegan cinnamon ice cream, $50 bottles of Rioja, artisanal cupcakes and those designer products for one's pooch. Hipsters with beards worthy of Brooklyn's Williamsburg emerge from lobbies of restored loft buildings where a two-bedroom apartment can go for as much as $3,000 a month. Longtime flophouse hotel residents on federal assistance vouchers now share floors with budget-minded travelers and aspiring artist types still some years away from a luxury loft upgrade. Skid Row, the homeless capital of the United States, is going upscale.
Amid the urban boom of the last decade across the United States, many downtown wastelands have undergone such transformations. The original Skid Row in Seattle—named in the 1860s for the greasy road used by day laborers transporting logs from timber stands above the city and eventually shorthand for a zone of drunkenness and destitution in an otherwise thriving young metropolis—has long since given way to a predictable mix of galleries, smart cafes and pricey lofts. So has the legendarily dissolute Bowery in New York City.
L.A.'s Skid Row was not the first of its kind but may well have become the worst, a 54-block island of despair west of the L.A. river, stretching north from 7th to 3rd streets and east from Main to Alameda, that has long had the distinction of hosting the largest concentration of homeless people in the country. For decades, it was an economic black hole in the middle of the city, where the helpless and hopeless washed up and would remain, very much out of sight and out of mind.
For decades, this was a wasteland, the homeless capital of the USA. Which makes it all the more striking that the march of gentrification, of yoga studios and big real-estate developments, is pushing into the greatest concentration of human misery to be found in all the United States.
Which makes it all the more striking that the march of gentrification, of yoga studios and big real-estate developments and more than 23,000 new residents in just the last seven years, is pushing into the vicinity of soup kitchens, of shelter beds, of sidewalk encampments—of the greatest concentration of human misery to be found in all the United States. That march has brought the inevitable conflicts, as rents rise and worlds intersect, and undoubted benefits, as L.A.'s downtown has suddenly become "a neighborhood as electrifying and gritty as New York in the '70s," as GQ called it in a recent travel article that trumpeted its "reoccupation" and declared it well on its way to becoming "a Great City in the heart of the City That Destroyed Cities."
But perhaps more surprising than this urban hipster upgrade has been another consequence of the vanishing buffer zone between Skid Row and the rest of L.A.: It seems, finally, to be forcing Angelenos to open their eyes to how the city treats its most vulnerable residents.
Down and Out in the City of Dreams: Portraits of L.A.'s Homeless (Click to view gallery)
With its endless sprawl, L.A. for decades has been called "the city without a center." In fact, Los Angeles once did have a center—and it was right where Pussy & Pooch now stands. In the late 1800s, cheap hotels began opening around Central Station to accommodate the thousands of day laborers, fruit pickers and fortune seekers taking the Southern Pacific Railroad to the end of the line. At the border of this transient district, Main Street arose as the city's hub of power and influence, where its real estate barons, citrus moguls and financiers built Beaux Arts office blocks of granite and marble and bronze with their names chiseled above the front doors. In top-floor executive offices and private clubs, they enjoyed a panoramic view of a city whose future they were shaping. The grandest monument of them all, just a few doors down from today's Pussy & Pooch, was the Pacific Electric Building, which served as the headquarters for the streetcar magnate Henry Huntington. In its basement was arguably the busiest commuter station in America, the terminus for 1,100 miles of Pacific Electric track leading from L.A.'s mushrooming suburbs to the heart of a city on the move.
In 1914, a produce dealer-cum-self-promoting-preacher named Tom Liddecoat opened the Midnight Mission only a five-minute walk from all this prosperity, serving a 12 a.m. dinner to the crowds of poor and hungry men who had clustered in what he called "Hell's Half Acre." By the Great Depression, the area was well on its way to becoming a disaster zone in the center of town, a sketchy neighborhood whose fate was sealed after World War II with the waning of Huntington's Pacific Electric System. Once the last of L.A.'s streetcar routes was scuttled in 1963, the conquest of the automobile was complete.
By the 1980s, the Gilded Age grand hotels were housing L.A.'s poorest. Above, the transformation of Hotel Rosslyn. | Getty; Mark Peterson/Redux
By the end of the 1980s, L.A.'s banks, corporations and white-shoe law firms had all decamped to a thicket of modern office towers built on a bluff to the west, convenient to one of the busiest freeways in the world. In the ghost town of the old city center, the grand hotels that had once welcomed Charlie Chaplin and Woodrow Wilson were now housing the poorest of L.A.'s poor, and an estimated 30 percent of the neighborhood was living on the streets, sleeping on sidewalks and alleys by the thousands and overwhelming the shelters, soup kitchens and vermin-infested rooming houses that had come to symbolize the neighborhood as much as its Gilded Age splendor ever had.
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