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6 Sep 2007 by group
Schwartz in the news again:
Stephen Schwartz of Brookhaven National Laboratory makes our weekly roundup again this week. This time, its for a comment/reply in the latest issue of Nature concerning a previously published Nature piece "Quantifying climate change — too rosy a picture?" by Schwartz et al. In the original piece, Schwartz and co-authors argue that the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) presents an overly confident assessment of climate sensitivity and potential future climate change. In the response by Forster et al, a number of IPCC lead authors point out that the Schwartz et al critique ignores or misinterprets several key IPCC findings.
update: if you don't have a subscription, the original Schwartz et al Nature article is available here and the recent comment/reply is available here
update #2: It has been pointed out to us that the commentary by Stephen Schwartz and co-authors was published on the Nature Reports Climate Change website, rather than in the print journal Nature.
Filed Under: Climate Science
334 Responses to "Friday roundup"
Chuck Booth says
6 Sep 2007 at 10:41 PM
Is there something missing from this story, such as an RC commentary about the response by Schwartz to the criticism by Forster et al?
Falafulu Fisi says
7 Sep 2007 at 1:14 AM
Forster et al, said…
A further problem in the analysis of
Schwartz et al. is that they assume the
uncertainties associated with forcing and with
temperature response at year 2000 are linearly
related (Schwartz et al. Figure 2). Such a
simple relationship does not exist because
temperature today is not in equilibrium with
current forcing, but instead is influenced by
historical forcing.
I noted Schwartz's linear model when I first read his paper. How about this scenario, would it be correct to say that all the possible values of sensitivity that have been published in the literatures so far and this including Schwartz's calculation do fall in the possible range that physics allows, but perhaps we don't know about these processes yet? Why does it has to be a single value? This is just a bold assertion, based on what I read on the published work of Rossow/Aires regarding the multivariate and nonlinear sensitivities for the analysis of feedback processes, in which they discussed the inappropriateness of using linear control model. So, if Schwartz's linearity assumption is wrong, then why not try to adopt the formulation described in Rossow/Aires paper, where climate dynamical processes are treated according to the real world physics, and that is non-linear.
I found Rossow/Aires work interesting. They treated each climate process as parallel to each other, but I think that their work is just the start in adopting non-linear control theory for climate data analysis. It would be interesting if future work by researchers in this area if they would discover that there are also feed-forward processes which are taking place at the same time as those feed-back processes. Again, this is just a thought, since both feed-back and feed-forward control processes do really occur simultaneously in the real world science.
7 Sep 2007 at 10:09 AM
> perhaps we don't know about these processes yet?
I've never seen anyone argue otherwise. Very different processes may happen depending on how much, how fast, and when we stop. Nature always stopped boosting CO2 eventually; outcomes varied greatly.
> Why does it has to be a single value?
It's the temperature difference measured once the planet is again at equilibrium — a single value, for those who will be alive at the time to do the measurement.
> This is just a bold assertion
Seems a mainstream statement to me, based on a few years' reading.
> the real world physics
After the first century or so, it's not just physics and chemistry, it will be studies in biogeochemistry and geomicrobiology.
Walt Bennett says
Since this is the roundup, here is a general question. I have been asked to evaluate Idso 98 with regard to the issue of climate sensitivity to CO2.
I found an inline from Gavin in April which states "Idso's experiments all involve random temperatures divided by random fluxes – all at the surface and none related to global long term feedbacks – they have absolutely no relevance to climate sensitivity as normally defined. There were whole journal issues devoted to pointing out the flaws in Idso's arguments (Climatic Change for instance)."
Unfortunately, I cannot seem to track that reference down, even using the site's search engine.
Can anybody point me to critical examinations of that paper?
After a little reading, just a few examples:
"Oceanographers are currently facing a profound challenge to their understanding of one of the ocean's most important physical processes, turbulent mixing…. A problem currently puzzling the world's oceanographers is that independent measurements of the ocean's temperature profile and the amount of turbulent mixing are not consistent. Measurements find approximately one tenth the mixing necessary to agree with the warm temperatures detected in the ocean's depth." http://chowder.ucsd.edu/home/
The Hawaii Ocean-Mixing Experiment (HOME)
Science. 2004 Jan 9;303 (5655):210-3 14716008
Widespread intense turbulent mixing in the Southern Ocean.
Alberto C Naveira Garabato, Kurt L Polzin, Brian A King, Karen J Heywood, Martin Visbeck
Observations of internal wave velocity fluctuations show that enhanced turbulent mixing over rough topography in the Southern Ocean is remarkably intense and widespread. Mixing rates exceeding background values by a factor of 10 to 1000 are common above complex bathymetry over a distance of 2000 to 3000 kilometers at depths greater than 500 to 1000 meters. This suggests that turbulent mixing in the Southern Ocean may contribute crucially to driving the upward transport of water closing the ocean's meridional overturning circulation, and thus needs to be represented in numerical simulations of the global ocean circulation and the spreading of biogeochemical tracers." http://lib.bioinfo.pl/pmid:14716008
Walt, try searching at the journal's page:
http://www.springerlink.com/content/?k=Idso
steven mosher says
Falafulu,
Remember what Peter Stone Said:
"In the last five years, we have become aware that climate sensitivity is not a constant, but evolves with time as the climate changes. For example, in a global warming scenario in which sea ice retreats, the ice albedo temperature feedback decreases as the ice retreats, and the temperature sensitivity decreases correspondingly. Thus, the climate sensitivity that one should use in making projections has to be matched to the time scale and scenario for which the projections apply."
Today's news:
Friday, September 7, 2007 — Arctic ice cap to melt faster than feared, scientists say
By Sandi Doughton
Seattle Times science reporter
http://nsidc.org/news/press/2007
… a new analysis from Seattle scientists says global warming will accelerate future melting much more than previously expected.
About 40 percent of the floating ice … during the summer will be gone by 2050, says James Overland, an oceanographer at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory. Earlier studies had predicted it would be nearly a century before that much ice vanished.
"This is a major change," Overland said. "This is actually moving the threshold up."
The finding, to be published Saturday in Geophysical Research Letters, adds to a growing body of evidence that the ecosystem around the North Pole is rapidly transforming, says Mark Serreze, of the National Snow and Ice Data Center at the University of Colorado. He goes even further than Overland, predicting the Arctic Ocean will be completely ice-free in summer by 2030….
—– end excerpt —–
Mike Alexander says
I've studied Schwartz's J Geophysical Research paper more thoroughly. He gets a very low sensitivity value of about 0.3 (corresponding to about 1.1 C temperature change from a CO2 doubling). Very crudely this idea can be conveyed by his assertion of a 2.2 watt per sq meter greenhouse forcing in the 20th century and a 0.57 increase in temperature: 0.57 temp change/2.2 forcing = 0.26, even smaller than 0.3.
He gets the 2.2 watt per sq meter from this figure from IPCC 2001:
http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/fig6-8.htm
I see about 2.0 I have detailed CO2, N2O and CH4 data. When I calculate using just CO2 I get only 1.2 watts per sq meter for 20th century forcing increase. But if I add N2O and CH4 using the IPCC 2001 simplified expressions I get 1.6. And if I then tack on CFCs forcings from IPCC 2001 I get 1.9, so the ~2.0 from the figure is materializing when I check it out.
Schwarz uses a 0.57 temperature increase for the 20th century. I use the HadCRUT3v data from here:
http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/hadcrut3vgl.txt
Now if I simply read the 1900 and 2000 temperature off this sheet I see they are different by 0.53. If you look at the CRUTEMv data the difference is 0.55 so I can see where the 0.57 might have come from.
But when I pass a trend line (a running 20-year linear regression) through the data and look at the 1900-2000 change I get about 0.77 C. And if I look at the 1905-2005 difference I get about 0.87 C. Since Schwarz finds a 5 year lag, it makes sense of compare 1905-2005 temperature change to a 1900-2000 forcing change. Even with this revised temperature change and the 1.9 forcing (instead of 2.0) the sensitivity value comes out at 0.46 (corresponding to a 1.7 degree increase from a CO2 doubling).
Now the IPCC 2001 report (same fig as before) suggests -0.2 net forcing from solar + aerosols. With their 2.0 watt/m^2 value for greenhouse gases this gives 1.8 for total forcing. With my 1.9 value it would come to a 1.7 watt/m^2 total forcing. Even with this reduced forcing and the 0.87 temperature change I get, sensitivity of 0.51 is obtained, which corresponds to 1.9 C for a CO2 doubling.
The consensus sensitivity is about 3 C for a CO2 doubling. To get that we need another 0.46 C temperature increase that is unrealized. This is what is considered "in the pipeline".
The source of this delayed heating is the effect of the deep ocean. Using a simple model in which I divide the world into three compartments (1) land + atmosphere above land (2) surface ocean + atmosphere above ocean and (3) deep ocean I can explore the effects of lags on the system.
Each compartment has an interchange rate with the surface ocean compartment. The land compartment has a small heat capacity and so has little impact on system dynamics over a period of decades (which is the time scale of interest since my trend serves to produce a running 20-year smoothing).
Assuming a fairly rapid interchange between and land and ocean air masses, the effect of deep ocean interchange in system dynamics in the multi-decade time frame is not very important. What deep ocean *does* impact is the extent of the temperature change due to a forcing change. For example over a period of a few decades, the impact of a step increase in forcing will be about 85-90% of the full effect for a deep ocean exchange rate consistent with a ~2000-year equilibrium period. Increasing the exchange rate to what would produce equilibrium in say ~1000 years would reduce the impact to about 80% or so. That is, the *true* sensitivity would be 18-25% greater than the figures above suggest depending on the importance of deep water heat exchange.
Application of these correctives to my 0.51 sensitivity value from above and I get 0.6-0.64 for sensitivity, corresponding to 2.3-2.4 degrees for CO2 doubling. It's still not 3 C, but if I assume larger deep ocean interchange rates I can make it bigger. The issue is this heating "in the pipeline" that reflects deep ocean effects isn't going to show up quickly. It might take a couple of centuries to manifest so is this relevant? Obviously it will be relevant when looking at paleoclimate forcing versus response behavior, but is it relevant today?
Aaron Lewis says
The global climate models failure to predict this summer's Arctic Sea Ice Melt event would seem to confirm Swartz's statement that we have "a false sense of (the models') predictive capability." The fact that IPCC inserted caveats, weasel words, and disclaimers into the report, does not change the fact that some of those disclaimers (key findings) did not find their way into the Executive Summary. Therefore, journalists, the general public, and executives/decision makers who only read the Executive Summary missed those key findings. The only people that read all of the key findings were the folks that read the full text of the IPCC reports. Even, most Lawyers did not get that deep into the fine print.
We need to face that fact that the best models failed, and rerunning suites of failed models (Overland) is not going to give use a good answer. It may give us a better answer, but it will not be a projection that can be used confidently for public policy planning. Moreover, the effects of the Arctic Sea Ice Melt event are likely to affect other parts of the Earth's climate, and increase divergence between the models' projections and reality. We need better models that produce projections of known quality
David B. Benson says
7 Sep 2007 at 1:35 PM
I have suggested a climate remediation policy as a comment to the "Climate Management 101 – 3. Changes and Times" post (currently the most recent) at
http://climatepolicy.org
Comments about the policy may be left there.
Here I have some climate change questions. We suppose it is possible to safely and securely sequester about 14 billion tonnes of carbon per year, from biomass sources. About half of that counter-balances the annual addition to the atmosphere from fossil and deforestration sources.
(1) Is this the correct estimate?
The other half goes into reducing the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. In general terms, I assume that the climate begins responding by moving back toward 'normal'.
(2) But in detail, it is not clear to me, either globally or regionally, just what the response would be. What will it be?
I propose continuing at this rate for 30 years, sequestering 210 billion tonnes of carbon. I believe this is about the correct amount to return the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere to 315 ppm.
(3) Is this about right? Is the response immediate or somewhat delayed?
Suppose that at this level just enough carbon is sequestered to balance the additions from fossil and deforestration sources, no more.
(4) What is the climatic response for the next 50–150 years?
I think I sorta know, but I'm interested in having a better grasp of the climate issues involved with this scenario. Thank you for your responses, which I shall read with great interest.
Just a note on a way to avoid building lots more dirty coal plants fast — increase short term energy storage to smooth out the current grid's performance.
You can't do this with biodiesel.
Possible storage forms: batteries, flywheels.
Here's a good review and example:
Volume 35, Issue 4, April 2007, Pages 2558-2568
doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2006.09.005
Copyright © 2006 Elsevier Ltd All rights reserved.
Economics of electric energy storage for energy arbitrage and regulation in New York
Rahul Walawalkara, Jay Apta, and Rick Mancinib,
Unlike markets for storable commodities, electricity markets depend on the real-time balance of supply and demand. Although much of the present-day grid operates effectively without storage, cost-effective ways of storing electrical energy can help make the grid more efficient and reliable. We investigate the economics of two emerging electric energy storage (EES) technologies: sodium sulfur batteries and flywheel energy storage systems in New York state's electricity market. The analysis indicates that there is a strong economic case for EES installations in the New York City region for applications such as energy arbitrage, and that significant opportunities exist throughout New York state for regulation services.
Benefits from deferral of system upgrades may be important in the decision to deploy EES.
Market barriers currently make it difficult for energy-limited EES such as flywheels to receive revenue for voltage regulation. Charging efficiency is more important to the economics of EES in a competitive electricity market than has generally been recognized.
—– end abstract —–
Adrianne says
Schwartz et al. assume that: "The challenge of climate change research is to develop confident predictive capability". It would –presumably- be more helpful to explain the big warming at Spitsbergen in winter 1918/19 first, the most puzzling climate event (L. Bengtsson et al.; JoC, 2004) that happened under the eyes of modern science only 90 years ago, which defiantly was also "one of the ocean's most important physical processes" (# 5). During the Arctic night only the sea could have started the Arctic warming from 1919 to 1940.
Francis says
I'm a lawyer so a lot of this goes over my head. Nevertheless, isn't it a little odd that the 1940's observed global ocean temperature anomaly falls so far outside the 5-95% confidence range? Wouldn't that suggest that current ocean temperature models need some work?
That's great that you are a lawyer, because one of the most comprehensive papers that are related to climate and oceans is Bernaerts' guide to the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the sea, writen by a lawyer and an international consultant. I am sure that it would answer your question better than I could.
I would suggest that
http://www.guardian.co.uk/international/story/0,,2164776,00.html
and in particular paragraph 10, suggests that we may still have a false sense of the authority of IPCC AR4.
Lawrence Brown says
Re No. 10: "The global climate models failure to predict this summer's Arctic Sea Ice Melt event would seem to confirm Swartz's statement that we have "a false sense of (the models') predictive capability."
I've never seen any claim made that GCMs can predict individual annual events,neither in the short nor the long term. The models, to the best of my knowledge, make general predictions of what is likely to happen in the future with given inputs, e.g. a business as usual scenario, and resulting greenhouse gas emissions. Expecting the models to say what the arctic sea ice melting will be in say the summer of 2008, is unrealistic.
Re: #6
Hank,
I had zero success searching that site, and I struck out using Google to find other critiques. I find that to be highly unusual for any well established paper.
Is Idso 98 taken seriously in climate circles? Gavin asserted that the paper's flaws had been well vetted, but I find no such evidence.
Any help at all would be appreciated.
Jeez, Adrienne, this again?? I answered that one the last two times you posted it, there was a documented weather system involved that pushed warm air into that area. Look it up.
Re 13 and 14. Spam, spam, spam, spam, spam. Spam, spam, spam, spam. Lovely spam…
I have only been look at this global warming issue for about eight months and there is a lot I don't know yet. I find most of the work done is largely incomprehensible to a layman, which should not be the case for a field where the models are as wrong as they are.
One of the things not addressed too often (at least I haven't seen it) is a characterization of what the global temperature profiles look like. If you plot the annual data you will see that it jumps around quite a bit. For example, I took the HADCRUT3v series of annual average global temperatures and ran a trend line though it. The trend was just a centered running 21-year linear regression up to 1996, with the post-1996 trend obtained from the 1986-2006 regression.
Here is what it looks like
http://my.net-link.net/~malexan/Climate-Model_files/image005.gif
I drew lines around it that encompass 82% of the data. These lines are spaced plus or minus 0.12 degrees from the trend. Yet I note that two out of nine years the actual temperature falls outside this value, so we can consider 0.12 C as a not atypical variation from year to year.
Now we know from experience that one any given day, the temperature can be as much as 20 C off from of the average for that day. If we average the daily temperatures of 1600 locations this average might be as much as 0.5 C off from its average value [0.5 C = 20 C/sqrt(1600)]. This statistical truism is called the central mean tendency. And if we then average 365 of these daily values to obtain an annual average, his value will be within 0.03 C [= 0.5 C / sqrt(365)] of its average value. In other words, the sort of "noise" that comes from random weather effects is much smaller than the 0.12 C variation the temperature plot shows.
These variations reflect real things like (possibly) the solar cycle and ENSO type phenomenon, not just "noise".
When we consider that the size of these fluctuations is about one-third of the entire trend change in temperature over the past century, we can see the problem with short-term forecasts. What happens in the near future heavily depends on these fluctuations.
We can also see why the Markov-type analysis that Schwarz uses isn't valid. This analysis attempts to identify system lags by measuring autocorrelation. Autocorrelation is the tendency for a system to follow past behavior, what one might all the "bandwagon effect". Stock markets are a good example. An up day is more likely to be followed by another up day than not. The same is true for down days. The explanation is stock investors act like a herd; when its goes up, investors get on the "bull" bandwagon. When it goes down, it's the bear's turn. As a result of this behavior the stock market shows "trendiness", behavior that is variously characterized as corrections/rallies and bear/bull markets depending on their size.
Applied to climate the idea is above average temperatures will be followed by more above-average temperatures because these elevated temperatures will be incorporated into the oceanic lag of the climate system and so will persist. The system will show hysteresis or a "memory effect", like a rubber band, which "remembers" its former length and returns to it after it has been stretched.. Such hysteresis can be picked up by a Markov-type analysis which will provide an estimate of the characteristic lag (or response time) of the system under consideration. Schwartz does such an analysis and comes up with a lag time of 5 years.
Analysis of the temperature plot above shows that the trend change in temperature over the 1900-2000 period is +0.78 C, but the total change is 8.3 C. If we assume that 0.03 C(times 100 years) or 3 C is weather "noise" this leaves around 4 C of temperature change over the last 100 years to be explained. Only about a fifth of it is due to the trend change that reflects long-term forcings with which climatologist are concerned. The other 80% reflects cyclical and other types of systemic changes like ENSO that might reflect internal system dynamics and not forcings per se.
Schwarz's Markov analysis should be valid if the temperature he is studying is mostly due to forcings. But if not then it is meaningless.
So the question comes to, are things like ENSO, related to forcings or not? We know that the heat capacity of the atmosphere is small compared to the surface ocean. As far as I can tell, the mixing times for both are not that different, so for climatic purposes we can consider them as a single system. If during an ENSO-like event the atmospheric temperature is higher, but the temperature of the combined surface ocean atmosphere is unaffected, then you would see a "spike" in recorded temperature that is unrelated to a forcing. That is, there would be no physical reason for this temperature spike to be "remembered" in future temperatures (i.e. through a system lag). This is because the temperature spike does not reflect a real increase in the energy absorbed by the Earth (which has to show up in future temperatures because of conservation of energy) but rather a rearrangement of the distribution of the current energy between surface ocean and atmosphere with no increase in the total energy inventory of the system (i.e. no associated forcing). Such a rearrangement could then disappear and leave no "memory" at all. The observed lag would then reflect the diluted effect of that temperature change (about 20%) that was due to actual forcings as opposed to "rearrangements" like ENSO.
Walt, I recall Gavin's on vacation; the Contact info in the "about" link, top of page would be a way to leave email to ask for more.
This link is the journal, but you'll have to get it from interlibrary loan if you're not a subscriber:
http://www.springerlink.com/content/?mode=allwords&k=climatic+change&sortorder=asc&Publication=Climatic+Change
Re #18: Walt, IIRC the Climatic Change article was considered to be so thorough abd definitive that it pretty well ended the discussion (except insofar as Idso continues to try to promote it to this day). I also recall looking for a copy at one point and not being able to find a free one. Springer and Elsevier are noted pains in the butt when it comes to that sort of thing.
There are three things you can do: One, if there is a large universty near you, likely you can see it there. Two, email Steve Schneider, explain the public service nature of what you're doing and ask him for a copy. I'm sure he'll be happy to send you one as long as you promise to not post it on the web. OTOH there's a chance that given how old it is it might be allowable for him to post it on his site, so ask about that. Three, buy it from Springer at their outrageous price.
Here is an interesting paper that I've just come across. I haven't read it yet, however I am still awaiting a response from the authors, since requesting a copy of their paper yesterday.
"Modelling greenhouse temperature using system identification by means of neural networks"
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6V10-4B5C1BD-1&_user=10&_coverDate=01%2F31%2F2004&_rdoc=1&_fmt=&_orig=search&_sort=d&view=c&_acct=C000050221&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=10&md5=0babfad1f39555419a4b75b990684ce4
An NNARX system is proposed for modelling the internal greenhouse temperature as a function of outside air temperature and humidity, global solar radiation and sky cloudiness. The models show a good performance over a complete year using only two training periods, 1 week in winter and one in September. Finding the balance between the number of neurons in the hidden layer of the NNARX system and the number of iterations for model training is found to play an important role in obtaining this good performance.
Author Keywords:
Auto-regressive model; Recurrent neural network; Backpropagation
The algorithm used in the quoted paper above is similar to ones described in Rossow/Aires the non-linear sensitivity analysis paper, where they mentioned NARMAX. NARMAX is similar to NNARX described in the abstract of the above paper.
Tom Fiddaman says
Re 21 The 1600 stations aren't independent, because many are in proximity to one another. I don't know what the characteristic scale of weather systems is, but the station correlation alone could invalidate your analysis. – Tom
Re: 10 & 16
Aaron Lewis's crisp comments are much appreciated. The problem with 2007 Arctic events, vis-a-vis the models (that is, the ones used in AR4) is not that models are not intended to predict single-year events, but that the biogeochemical and geomicrobiological (as Hank puts it) behavior of the actual physical Earth, in all its formidable complexity, is making the models look ridiculous. Current observations keeps falling so far off the bottom of AR4's worst cast scenarios that it won't be long before its obvious to most that this generation of models, for all its usefulness, requires fundamental re-examintation.
Coming from a software engineering background myself – if this were my piece of code, I'd have a strong suspicion by now that there's a major bug somewhere that I haven't tracked down yet.
barry says
With Roger Pielke Snr's weblog no longer being added to, what's another good site that vigorously questions AGW theory purely on the science? Surely his wasn't the only one. (I don't think climateaudit makes the cut)
Re #19: Claiming that an extreme rise of winter temperatures at the edge of the Arctic Ocean during the winter season could have been caused by 'pushed warm air to that area' is mere guessing and practically impossible, just read the arctic-warming site.
I do not expect climate models to predict annual events.
However, some of the GCM did predict rapid collapses of the Arctic sea ice in 4 or 5 decades as an unlikely event. Human nature assumes that if the GCM can forecast such distant events, it should also be able to predict similar events that are only 1 or 2 decades distant. If the GCM had made a prediction of possible sea ice melt within 10 years of the actual event, I would say that the GCM was a great success. I would say that they were good if they came within 20 years. However, they missed. The GCMs did not forecast significant ice loss within the next couple of decades.
What is the value of these very expensive GCM, if they can not inform our decisions?
Aaron Lewis, Don't forget that the dynamics of melting ice–especially sea ice–have greater uncertainties than do climate models. Also, GCM models do a very poor job of looking at fluctuations precisely because they are designed not to do so. The GCM have done a pretty good job of doing what they were designed to do–follow energy flows over large scales. Projecting these flows onto regional scales is a fraught proposition however, as previous posts have discussed. And yes, the Arctic is regional. They are also all we have to guide policy decisions.
So, the thing to do is look at where they were wrong and improve them. Look at where the melting-ice models were wrong, and improve them. And as we are making these improvements, we use the current models to implement sensible policies to mitigate the effects we are seeing.
Adrienne, people have been spamming climate websites for years now with these links to what must be dozens of differently-named web pages, which all lead to Mr. Benaerts's pages claiming World War I and II naval warfare caused global warming.
It's just blogspamming, advertising his book. There's no science, no math, just correlation, at the multiple websites:
seaclimate
arctic-warming
oceanclimate
warchangesclimate
1-ocean-1-climate
And you drop this stuff everywhere, always pointing back to those websites, sometimes at great length
http://climatesci.colorado.edu/2007/01/01/a-breath-of-fresh-air-in-the-media-on-climate-an-interview-and-article-by-andy-revkin/#comment-120688
Sometimes it's a Mike Kauso posting the same thing, as someone noticed in the above thread
http://www.inkstain.net/fleck/?p=1866#comment-58527
Yes, the big year 1918, the year the Spanish Flu blew up across the world, was a warm year.
Most of the other claims you're making are quotes from newspapers, and nothing supporting you has been published in the climatology papers. You have no research, no math, no idea how what Bernaerts is claiming could work. It gets really tiresome seeing it flogged.
Consider why. Just repeating the same thing over and over in many people's blogs may increase your Google Page Rank in searches and perhaps your book sales. It doesn't help advance the science.
Lynn Vincentnathan says
Although I can't address the technical aspects and deficiencies of the Schwartz et al. commentary, my general gut feeling is that they're right (perhaps maybe not for the reasons they posit): the IPCC AR4 may be painting too rosy a picture about global warming.
Even Stefan, here, who was part of IPCC AR4, suggested in an earlier thread that AR4 may not have given the best picture of sea rise because of unquantifiables for ice sheet dynamics.
And then there seems to be a general trend in studies — "it's worse than we had earlier thought," re such things the permafrost (& ice-locked carbon) in the arctic is much deeper than we though, and a lot of the ice-locked methane hydrates or clathrates in the ocean are at more shallow levels (closer to the warming layer of the ocean) than we thought. Or findings about hydrogen sulfide gas being released during past warmings & killing off life lickety split.
Or that scientists aren't talking much about the scenarios after 2100, once the warming starts to catch up with the GHGs, I guess more bec that's just too hard to project with any accuracy at all, esp with all the wild card positive feedback potential, more than bec no one cares about future generations…..
Compared to what happened 55 and 251 mya — so we do know it could happen again, only this time much faster, due to the demon-like speed and vigor with which we're pumping GHGs into the atmosphere — the AR4 does seem a bit on the tame side.
Climate models are admittedly, have shortcomings and the the scientists and modelers involved will say so. Yet, there have been many successes. See: Hansen's 1988 projections
posted by Gavin on 15 May on Realclimate to see verification of this.
Models are continuously being updated and improved.There is a certain randomness in natural phenomena and compensating for this is difficult,but possible.
By now I've developed a mental filter process the error-bars of GCMs. I take the worst-case as my best-case, and shorten the interval by (at least) 50%. It's easy to imagine an heuristic like this consistently outperforming, in terms of predictive accuracy.
This is nothing rigorous and I don't mean to recommend such a heuristic to anyone. The steady stream of "much sooner than anyone previously thought possible" climate stories makes an impression on a one's thinking after awhile, so I've acquired this mostly-unconscious rule of thumb.
Eyal Morag says
The problem with models that we know they can predict the past but we can't know if they can predict the future partly because of the complexity that as know and more because of process that hard to model like
sea ice for example can have albedo from 0.05 to 0.9 the value depend on evolution during the years and last hours weather
[Sea Ice Albedo classification]
http://www.gi.alaska.edu/%7Eeicken/he_teach/GEOS615icenom/albedo/albedo%20classification.htm
that maybe part of the blame why the models don't predict the observed sea ice decline
http://nsidc.org/news/press/20070430_StroeveGRL.html
but other process are maybe not in the models at all like Mediterranean drouth the duration of snow cover in Europe
http://nsidc.org/news/press/20070623_PainterGRL.html
Or the rate of methane release from hydrates in the Ocean
Or as appear in the WG SPM
"Dynamical processes related to ice flow not included in current models but suggested by recent observations could increase the vulnerability of the ice sheets to warming, increasing future sea level rise. Understanding of these processes is limited and there is no consensus on their magnitude."
Or the reaction of the tropical rain forest to change in the rain pattern that didn't occur yet.
That's why I'v called my Hebrew blog on climate change "The Black Butterfly Effect"
Sow all models are no better then Hansen's claim that we should better stay in the limits of interglacial periods and to learn from history
Now model can be trusted 2C degree higher than industrial temp
Rather than continue to be off-topic on the Regional Climate Change thread, I am commenting here. Hank Roberts brought up the notion that we (all 6+ billion of my closest friends) are over-consuming the world's resources. Certainly so. There is only a finite supply of metal ores, for example.
However, the potential for biomass to create bioenergy is surprisingly high, over twice the current approximately 400–420 exajoules currently consumed from all sources. The following link contains a link to a thesis (mostly in English) which analyzes the situation:
http://www.biopact.com/africa-latin-america-china-and-biofuel.html
Somehwat related to this, I was hoping for comments regarding my comment #11, which wonders exactly what happens if atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations are decreased by sequestering carbon…
Phil. Felton says
"If the GCM had made a prediction of possible sea ice melt within 10 years of the actual event, I would say that the GCM was a great success. I would say that they were good if they came within 20 years. However, they missed. The GCMs did not forecast significant ice loss within the next couple of decades."
Well apparently this meets your standards.
https://www.realclimate.org/images/bitz_fig2.jpg
The correct link to the Biopact page is actually a previous post:
http://biopact.com/2006/07/look-at-africas-biofuels-potential.html
Apologies.
Daniel and Aaron, When you have a model that performs well generally, but which fails to perform for a specific class of phenomena, the problem is usually not a "bug", but rather physics pertinent to the weak point that is missing. In this case, the missing physics is that of melting ice. This is a known unknown in the latest IPCC assessment. Such pessimism about the general health of the models is unwarranted.
http://visibleearth.nasa.gov/view_rec.php?id=16858
http://veimages.gsfc.nasa.gov/16858/HANPP_1982-98.jpg
David, on the page you point to, their link is still broken to the document they cite as their source for these numbers:
"… the global, sustainable bioenergy production potential in 2050 is between 273 Exajoules (scenario 1) and 1471 EJ (scenario 4).
Now consider that the world's total current energy consumption from all sources (nuclear, coal, oil, natural gas and renewables) amounts to 440 EJ of energy per year…."
But another paper that _is_ currently available at the same website contradict these numbers:
http://www.bioenergytrade.org/t40reportspapers/otherreportspublications/fairbiotradeproject20012004/00000098ae0d94705.html
"Existing scenario studies indicated that such increases in productivity may be unrealistically high, although these studies generally excluded the impact of large scale bioenergy crop production. The global potential of bioenergy production from agricultural and forestry residues and wastes was calculated to be 76-96 EJ y-1 in the year 2050. The potential of bioenergy production from surplus forest growth (forest growth not required for the production of industrial roundwood and traditional woodfuel) was calculated to be 74 EJ y-1 in the year 2050."
I'm not going to pursue this further — it's going way off topic — but you were picking the most optimistic scenarios and stating them as facts — that always worries me when I know there's other information available that people need to evaluate the claims. The argument that it's possible to exceed nature's total productivity from photosynthesis without stealing anything from nature is most improbable.
I'm asking you to be even-handed and give people all the evidence relevant to your claim, not just the references that support what you prefer to believe, not just the most optimistic scenarios.
This is always the right approach — full, best available information so people can evaluate claims and think about the facts available.
Hank Roberts — The link to the Hoogwijk thesis provides the .pdf file. I read enough of it to stand by my statement, which is re-inforced by the Smeets, et al., abstracts that you so kindly provided a link to.
The discrepancy comes from employing currently degraded or unused, but usable, lands to grow biomass for bioenergy. Jatropha is a good choice and there is lots of land which can be employed for this purpose.
This is a 'Friday Report' thread, whose purpose — as I understand it — is to provide a place for comments which would be off-topic elsewhere.
And I do try to provide the links to appropriate references. I've been following Biopact for some time now and have learned to largely trust their judgement. You are, of course, welcome to disagree. But with regard to the potential for about 840 exajoules of bioenergy, both the Hoogwijk thesis and the Smeets, et al., papers seem to agree that this is possible, albeit with some investment.
This is, to me, of great importance. It means that if the will is there, it is possible to replace all fossil fuelss by biofuels and still have enough to sequester massive amounts of carbon each year.
RE 24. 1600 was an illustrative example. Obviously one would use only the *independent* stations. Say there are only 300 independent stations. In this case the max variation on annual temperature would be 0.06 C, still much less than the 0.12 and my point stands.
Technically my analysis applies for standard deviations, not maximum variations, which are considerably smaller, probably on the order of 5-10 C. Thus for 0.12 C-sized *regular* global fluctuations to be the result of random 10 C "weather effects" you would need less than *twenty* independent weather stations.
This is why the modern instrumental record (with >> 20 independent measurements) is so much more reliable than pre-1850 data. For example 17th century temperature changes of ~0.1 C may well be "weather noise" whereas 20th century changes of this magnitude most certainly do not.
TokyoTom says
James Annan has also commented on Schwartz`s earlier Nature piece concerning the IPCC: http://julesandjames.blogspot.com/2007/09/pile-on.html#links
ARCTIC ICE LOSS 2007
Looking at the recent events in this regard in the Arctic it can be currently shown that all 18 models used to predict future sea ice loss are too conservative.
Is this just a modelling paramater error, sea ice to thick in the models or ocean circulation is not correct etc or is it something else.
The recent ice loss seems to be alarming some people and preictions of 2030 for sea ice loss in the Artic are now being projected. I remember a recent article on RC that stipulated that around 2080 to 2100 was the most likely date and even the models earliest dates were 2040 and that was considered unlikely !!
Is polar amplification a stronger forcing than currently known ?
Randy Ross says
In connection with David Thompson's comments on biofuel, the New York Times just had an article on this very promising plant:
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/09/world/africa/09biofuel.html
Obviously, this will not stop global warming, but it can help provide non-fossil fuel energy to the developing world, and help poor farmers in those areas.
Pete, much of the data collected is still classified; the Navy Postgraduate School thesis collection has consistently had more modeling information on the Arctic than any other site. It's hard to search, each time I go look for something I know is there and supposedly public, they've rearranged the links or home page.
The articles this search finds are ways to start into that:
"naval postgraduate school" Arctic sea ice. I'm only guessing that they may be drawing on classified data to feed their models, but allowed to publish some of the model results — not allowed to to tell the enemy submariners where the ice is thick or thin, but perhaps allowed to reveal the overall trends, for example.
I've seen one name, Dr. Maslowski, turn up as thesis advisor on several interesting documents that used to be findable there.
Here's a published paper from him on the topic, quite recent:
http://www.ametsoc.org/atmospolicy/documents/May032006_Dr.WieslawMaslowski.pdf
Re #11, #35, #37, #39, #40: Using the figure that burning one kilogram of carbon in the air releases 33 megajoules (I had to ask so I don't have a reference), 14 billion tonnes of carbon is equivalent to 462 exajoules. This is towards the low end of the four scenarios in the Hoogwijk thesis.
Actually, I forgot about carbon dioxide concentration in the upper ocean in arriving at the figure of 14 billion tonnes posed in comment #11. I believe this means that it will take the removal of about 270 billion tonnes of carbon from the atmosphere to restore the carbon dioxide concentration to 315 ppm. At an average of 7 billion tonnes of carbon sequestered per year, this reequires about 40 years.
Agreed. jatropha is interesting, as do some others, of which miscanthus looks especially good in place of corn for ethanol, sooner or later. Especially, poor third-world farmers aren't *ever* going to get much, if any, gasoline or diesel fuel (Peak Oil), so maybe they can skip straight to renewables or PV-solar-powered tractors and pumps.
Of course, better crops in general would help: although Norman Borlaug is amazing, and still out there at 93, I hope there are younger equivalents to give Africa more help with crop engineering.
Re 38: I'm glad to hear your optimism regarding the models, Ray. I have no doubt you know vastly more than me whereof you speak.
Still, the engineer's "we know we can fix it" is automatically much less credible than the quantum physicist's "we don't know anything" to me. The nagging doubts I have about something basically off in the GCMs (if you'll indulge a piker):
1) Perhaps the GCMs may be described as equilibrium machines. Is there something fundamentally different about modeling disequilibrium, if that's what the earth is experiencing?
2) What about non-linear versus linear effects? Easier math, at least, might prejudice models in the linear direction.
3) The proliferation of feedbacks from biological sources (which may be a restatement of (2), come to think of it). As this progresses, the prognosis for predictively-successful modeling gets that much worse, again.
Re #45, Hank, Thats interesting stuff. looks like ice measurements and assumptions for the models might have been incorrect or that computational power is not sufficient to accurately reflect oceanic heat transport.
Still as all 18 models are somewhat inaccurate even with varying degrees of parameters is there something missing from the models I wonder ?


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Changes to Wake Forest Graduate School of Business Spring Admissions
Parker Beverly
For many at Wake Forest, the university's Graduate School of Business is a viable option for continuing their education. Something that makes this more feasible for students is the Accelerated Masters Program. A recent flyer announced their decision to alter their admissions process for spring 2020.
As with other programs, the School of Business has come to this decision due to the ongoing coronavirus pandemic. Ultimately, according to Sylvia Green, the chief marketing and enrollment management officer at the School of Business, the changes were made "due to the closure of testing facilities for the GRE and GMAT due to COVID-19."
The changes that were put in effect include GRE/GMAT waivers for those who qualify, a waived $100 application fee with the use of the code DEACON and waived short-answer questions with the use of the code DEACON.
These changes mainly affect those outside of the Wake Forest community since recent graduates interested in the program apply through the Double Deac Advantage Program, which requires no application fee, waived essay questions, GPA based scholarship opportunities and a guaranteed interview.
"Our admission process for Wake Forest students did not really change too much this spring," Green said. "We know that Wake Forest graduates are exceptional students [and] the rigor of their Wake Forest undergraduate coursework has prepared them well for graduate school."
In addition to the changes, the School of Business' pamphlet provided profiles on three Double Deacs who are participating in the program currently. The Accelerated Masters Programs highlighted their opportunities in Management (MSM), Business Analytics (MSBA) and Accountancy (MSA).
In an interview, Green emphasized the utility of the School of Business' three accelerated master's degree programs.
"[I would] recommend [them] for high achieving students to continue their studies," Green said.
Despite the changes to the admissions process, the School of Business does not expect a great change in enrollment or number of accepted students.
"This year, we are increasing our enrollment in our MSBA program by adding an additional section due to increased demand," Green said. "Overall, we would like to increase the number of Wake Forest students (Double Deacs) as mentioned before, they are exceptional students."
In the past, Wake Forest graduates have comprised around 20-25% of the accelerated master's degree programs.
When asked how the School of Business has reacted to the changes put in place due to social distancing and remote operations, Green described the faculty and staff as "thoughtful, creative and agile" while having to develop "new ways of doing things."
"We continue to think intentionally about our students, alumni, colleagues and family members and do our best to hopefully make your journey, and the world, a little better everyday," Green said.
'We have work to do:' Campus Climate Survey data released

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


, [USA] Oct 31 (ANI): Priyanka Chopra has come out in support of her longtime friend and designer Georgina Chapman, who recently divorced disgraced movie mogul Harvey Weinstein, after he was accused of sexual misconduct.
The 'Baywatch' actor decided to wear a Marchesa design to her bridal shower as a symbol of her support. Priyanka said that wearing one of Chapman's gowns is a matter of "women supporting women," reported People.
"Georgina's a friend of mine, and she has been. And it's not her fault. And I don't think it's right to take it out on a self-made woman what somebody in her life did," Priyanka told Women's Wear Daily.
"That's the wrong attitude. I've known her for years, and that was a beautiful gown and deserved to be worn by a bride-to-be. And it made me feel like a princess. It was the right choice," added the 'Quantico' star.


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your connection to quality open access reviews
Honor Thy Mother 2021
Distributed by Stourwater Pictures, 11431 Miller Road NE, Bainbridge Island, WA 98110; 206-617-1354
Produced by Lucy Ostrander
Directed by Lucy Ostrander
Streaming, 31 mins
High School - General Adult
Discrimination; Native Americans
Date Entered: 12/09/2021
Reviewed by Terri Robar, Communication, Media, Geography & Maps Librarian, University of Miami
Indian residential schools have been in the news this year as proof of their records of horror have been unearthed and exposed. Due to the high death rates and the many forms of abuse, those students who managed to leave the schools are often called "survivors." This is the story of some of the women survivors and their families.
Bainbridge Island is located in Puget Sound near Seattle, Washington. In the early 1940's, much of the land was used for berry farming and owned by Japanese Americans. They hired Philippine men to oversee the farm workers; they in turn recruited Native Americans to pick the berries. Many residential school survivors from both Canada and the United States found jobs there. Some of the women married the Philippinos and their children, being the product of both cultures yet not really belonging to either, came to call themselves "Indipinos."
In some ways, this is a story about discrimination. There were culture clashes between the Japanese Americans, the Philippinos, and the Native Americans. The Whites, of course, discriminated against all of them. In 1942, the Japanese Americans were all sent to concentration camps. The residential schools had been an attempt at cultural genocide.
More importantly, this is a story about survival and the lengths that people will go to in order to survive. Some women did so by accepting the brainwashing of the schools that it was a bad thing to be an Indian and taught their children to suppress that part of themselves. Others fought to hold on to their history and culture. No one can say that each way was right or wrong; what mattered was that each person found a method to survive.
Those interviewed in this film are mainly that second generation of Indipinos since their mothers are no longer with us. The interviews are often emotional as they convey what they and their mothers endured, what survived and what was lost. There is also a narrator to describe the historical events and put the interviews into context. Many photos and old videos are included to help give a feeling of history without distracting from the message.
After watching this film, I was torn between a desire to weep for they had to endure in the past and wanting to cheer because they survived and are now working hard to reclaim their native heritage. The filmmaker has managed to convey both messages in a single and powerful film.
2021 Best Feature Documentary, West Sound Film Festival; 2021 Audience Favorite Feature Documentary, West Sound Film Festival; 2021 Overall Short Film Audience Choice Winner, Friday Harbor Film Festival; 2021 Special Jury Award, Best Indigenous Short, Bend Film Festival
Published and licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. Anyone can use these reviews, so long as they comply with the terms of the license.
Copyright © 2019 The Pennsylvania State University.


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A Closer Look At Obama's Counterterrorism Strategy, Legacy10:38
<iframe width="100%" height="124" scrolling="no" frameborder="no" src="https://player.wbur.org/hereandnow/2016/12/06/obama-counterterrorism"></iframe>
U.S. President Barack Obama meets with the 2016 American Nobel Prize laureates in the Oval Office of the White House Nov. 30, 2016 in Washington, D.C. (Andrew Harrer-Pool/Getty Images)
The president travels to Tampa today, the military's special operations headquarters. There he will meet with the troops and speak about his administration's counterterrorism efforts.
Here & Now's Peter O'Dowd asks American University professor Stephen Tankel (@stephentankel), a counterterrorism expert, to assess the Obama legacy, and also what to expect from the Trump administration.
On the White House's report on use of military force
"What the president and his team have put out is really a compendium of a lot of the different legal bases, domestic and international, for both where they are conducting military operations, and also why and how they have been able to use force in the ways that they have. So explanations for why the United States is on the ground in Afghanistan, why it is providing support to the government in Somalia or Libya and launching airstrikes, things of that nature, and both explaining sort of how they go about prosecuting the use of force and the legal basis for it."
On transparency in drone strikes
"I think he's attempted to address it. I don't think he's addressed it to the satisfaction of many of his critics. There is obviously a tension when using drone strikes, especially when using them in countries where sometimes our partners have specifically requested that we not acknowledge these strikes. That was part of the deal with Pakistan, initially. It was part of the deal with Yemen as well, and so that creates transparency issues. The fact that the drones were, initially, being flown often by the CIA as opposed to the military, that also creates transparency issues. And again part of that is by design and because of what our partners in some cases have requested."
On the legacy of Obama's strategy
"I would challenge that conclusion that his policies have led to the expansion of extremism and I certainly don't think that it's going to be the case by simply using more force you're going to reduce extremism, certainly not by re-instituting torture would you reduce extremism. But I think part of what the president is trying to do here is to set a precedent in terms of transparency going forward, to show why what they have done is legal and also to show what the legal limitations are to potentially make it more difficult to go further in some areas, and again, also, set that precedent for communicating with the American public to the degree possible about what informs these decisions and what the legal bases are."
"I think there certainly have been some successes and if you judge it on the ability to eliminate leaders and also to keep the homeland safe from major transnational attacks then one would dress it successfully. At the same time, certainly we've seen an expansion of terrorist groups across the Middle East and North Africa. One could criticize some of the ways in which the Obama administration has reacted to the Arab uprisings, but I think it's important to remember that the Arab uprisings which created sort of a lot of the new opportunities for these groups to spread were a long time building. So, I'm not sure that there would have been much that the Obama administration coming in in 2009 could've done to stop the Arab uprisings in 2011, so I think that context is important."
"I can't say whether President Obama considers himself a war president. I think it would be hard for history not to see him as one. He has presided over war for the entirety of his presidency, in Afghanistan, where we still have troops on the ground, and really waging a new kind of war. And I think one of the questions that we'll look back on historically will be whether the Bush and really the Obama administrations were — the time in which the concept of what it meant to be at war or at peace became clouded in ways that we'll be working to unpack for years to come."
This segment aired on December 6, 2016.
The Language Of Counterterrorism: Is Obama Striking The Right Tone?
U.S. Fighting Terrorism In Endless 'Shadow War'
The Obama Administration's Strategy In The Fight Against ISIS
Looking At The Major Security Issues Of This Year And Next
Former NATO Commander Wesley Clark On Foreign Policy Today


Ultraman Festival 2017, the twenty-seventh annual celebration of the Ultra series, starts in July with "the bonds of parents and children" being its theme.
From July to August, in the Sunshine City venue of Higashi-Ikebukuro, Toshima Ward, Tokyo, Japan, Ultraman Festival 2017 arrives! It is the twenty-seventh annual celebration of the Ultra series made by Tsuburaya Productions. The theme of this year's festival is "the bonds of parents and children"!
To promote this theme, attractions including the famous Ultraman "Battle Diorama" and the live-action stage show with an audience participation gimmick "Ultra Flash", which is also one of the festivity's key attraction; are set to appear. Additionally, a 3.6-meter display of Ultraseven and Ultraman Zero posing together will be available as a photo shoot location, it is encouraged for parents and children to pose along with the father and son.
Ultraman Festival 2017 will be divided into two segments. These two segments are called "Cutting through Fate – The Battle of Light and Darkness" and "Our Wings! The Ultrahawk Blasts Off", which occurs from July 21st – August 7th, 2017, and from August 9th – August 28th, 2017, respectively.
Lastly, advanced tickets are available for purchase pricing ¥1200 for children and ¥1900 for adults.


The South Georgia Conference of the United Methodist Church notes: The story is told that a circuit rider came to hold services at the site of this church and no one came, so he called it "Lone Hill". The first building was erected on this site, in Coffee County, between 1848 and 1854…The adjacent cemetery contains the graves of the early settlers to the community. The earliest marked grave is of the infant son of Dan and Winafred Newbern born and died January 4, 1848.
The cemetery is also home to the National Champion Eastern Red Cedar.


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Can Erdoğan and the AKP change?
By YUSUF KANLI yusuf.kanli@hurriyet.com.tr
There's a Turkish saying that a person does not change much, and that in your 70th year you are almost the same as in your 7th year. If throughout the past 14 years a political leader and his party have ruled the country through the politics of tension, confrontation and dangerous polarization, is it possible to believe they could change because of a dreadful trauma? Could they really become people who are respectful of differences, giving importance to reconciliation, consensus politics, national unity and harmony?
The last time President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and former President Abdullah Gül – as well as former deputy prime ministers Bülent Arınç and Abdüllatif Şener – declared that they had changed, "taking off the shirt of the 'National View'" of the Necmettin Erbakan-led Islamist politics, few people believed them. Those who did not believe them were proven wrong after it later became clear that Erdoğan and his friends had indeed taken off the Turkish political Islamic shirt - and put on the Muslim Brotherhood shirt. The difference? The Hamas of Palestine, which was a clandestine terrorist gang in Erbakan's Turkey, became a legitimate political representative of the Palestinian people - or at least Gaza - in Erdoğan's Turkey. The Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood, which was a threat to Islam in Erbakan's time, became such a valuable friend of Erdoğan that Turkey went to the extreme of almost severing ties with Egypt when the Muslim Brotherhood's President Mohamed Morsi was toppled in a military coup.
So it can be said that when he declared he had changed, Erdoğan indeed underwent a transformation 14 years ago. Or was Erdoğan just the same all the time, a Muslim Brotherhood fan Turkish politician, who managed to hide his true colors for a long time? Was Erdoğan sincere when he vowed to raise "religious" new generations? Was he sincere when he said "we can no longer act as we did before July 15. None of us can, including me as the president … The AK Party, which has been governing Turkey for the past 14 years, also cannot act as it used to"?
President Erdoğan has probably realized what a big mistake it was to insist on a Sunni-based sectarian governance understanding and foreign policy perspective based on constant tension. Whoever was advising the president that by polarizing the nation he was consolidating the conservative-Islamist base of the party basically paved the road to the July 15 failed coup. Was it not great to recently hear from Deputy Prime Minister Numan Kurtulmuş that from now on, recruitments and promotions in the public sector would be carried out on the basis of competence and qualifications, irrespective of whether or not candidates are pious? Were not Kurtulmuş's words at the same time a confession that during the past 14 years the AKP has discriminated against secularists, non-practicing Muslims and non-Muslims, in favor of placing its pious supporters in public jobs, including jobs at local municipalities? Should we rejoice that the non-pious will now be able to have the opportunity of public employment?
It was great to hear those words coming out of the mouth of the president. But was he sincere? If he has really become a democratic personality wishing to embrace the entire nation, why do we have such a high number of journalists, businessmen and academics behind bars? Kurtulmuş, as well as Prime Minister Binali Yıldırım, have proudly declared that there is not a single journalist in Turkish prisons who was imprisoned for their journalistic activities? Should we be realistic for one second? What was the non-journalistic activity of, for example, columnist Lale Kemal (Sarıibrahimoğlu) or Hürriyet reporter Arda Akın? Was not Akın the journalist who first reported the attempt by a prosecutor to interrogate National Intelligence Organization (MİT) Undersecretary Hakan Fidan on Feb. 7, 2012, in connection to the now-collapsed Kurdish opening? The government must explain in detail the crimes that prosecutors are alleging, or the crimes of the 76 journalists already in prison, particularly the 46 journalists sent to prison since the failed coup? How many of them have been sentenced?
This government has made some changes to the Penal Code and introduced the clause of "reasonable doubt" to justify making detentions or arrests. For years journalists' organizations and a few democratic personalities in this country have been stressing that not only should such dreadful and ambiguous clauses be lifted from the legislation, but the anti-democratic elements of all laws, particularly Article 5 of the anti-terror law under which most journalists have been arrested, must urgently be lifted.
Has Erdoğan changed? Has the AKP's governance become more democratic? Will discrimination of the "others" of Turkish society be ended? If Erdoğan and the AKP are sincere, why don't they act on the anti-terror law?
Well, they will not. They have even accepted sending down the visa deal with Europe down the drain simply to preserve that totally disgusting piece of legislation.
Some patently good news
What Europe should know about North Cyprus
The ball is in US court as S-400s arrive in Turkey
Short-lived honeymoon between Athens and Ankara
The chances for new political parties in Turkey


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Overview: Developing audio content for mobile games presents sound designers and composers with a series of challenges: limited CPU, tight bandwidth, cross-platform incompatibilities and more. Fortunately, we've been there before and have developed techniques for creating interesting and entertaining soundtracks despite the resource constrained environment. Some of the same tricks of the trade that were useful in early PC games and dial-up Web sites can be used to good effect on mobile devices.
This session discusses techniques for creating large amounts of sound and music using ridiculously small files, compression options, speaker size limitations and other mobile audio issues. The author demonstrates some original, interactive soundtracks for games on the T-Mobile Sidekick.


text:
Sayram (uzbek Сайрам) és una ciutat del Kazakhstan a la província del Kazakhstan del Sud al riba del riu Sayram Suv (que neix a la muntanya Sayram; Sayram Suv vol dir "Aigua del Sayram" o "Riu Sayram", com en turc "su" = riu). Les muntanyes de la rodalia són anomenades Sayram Elys (Muntanyes prop de Sayram).

Població
La seva població a mitjans dels anys noranta era de 37.000 habitants. La població estimada el 2005 és de 43.000 habitants. El repartiment és: 95% uzbeks, 3% kazakhs, 1% russos i 1% altres. A la zona s'han establert molts emigrants uzbeks que són classificats de "oralmans" és a dir kazakhs retornats.

La ciutat no sembla haver estat part de la Unió Soviètica amb molt pocs rastres d'arquitectura soviètica. Les cases són típicament de l'Àsia central i de no més de dos pisos. Abunden els minarets, les mesquites i els mausoleus alguns de més de 1000 anys.

Història
La ciutat de Sayram es considera la més antiga del Kazakhstan. Les troballes arqueològiques la remunten a fa uns tres mil anys. Els historiadors d'Alexandre el Gran no l'esmenten però ja existia al seu temps, si bé estava a un dia de camí del riu Iaxartes i els grecs no la van conèixer.

Després del Concili d'Efes el 431 molts nestorians van marxar cap a Àsia Central i es van establir comunitats nestorianes en molts llocs. Una comunitat nestoriana està testimoniada a Sayram quan hi van arribar els àrabs musulmans el 766. L'introductor de l'islam a la ciutat és recordat com Iskak-bab; un manuscrit anomenat Nasabname diu que els guerrers musulmans sota Iskak-bab van arribar a Sayram i es van trobar amb el patriarca nestorià, Nakhibar. Ishak va convidar a Nakhibar a convertir-se i el patriarca va contestar que tenia darrere seu setanta generacions de creients i per tant la seva fe era ferma; llavors va seguir una lluita cos a cos que va durar tres dies, i milers de nestorians (10.000) i musulmans (15000) van morir; el portaestendard dels musulmans era Abd al Aziz-baba, l'heroisme del qual va esdevenir proverbial

Ishak-bab va construir la primera mesquita de la ciutat (i del modern territori del Kazakhstan). La ciutat fou reanomenada Isfijab o Isfidjab. La primera cosa certa que se sap és que fou conquerida pel samànida Nuh ben Asad, governador de Samarcanda, l'any 840 que hi va construir una muralla que protegia les seves vinyes i terres de cultiu, amenaçades per les incursions dels turcs de les estepes, oghuz i qimak. Era una vila de frontera habitada pels ghazis o combatents de la fe, que van construir diversos ribats o temples fortaleses. Molts d'aquestos ribats eren finançats per les poblacions de les ciutats de Transoxiana situades lluny de la frontera; ribats construir per gent de Bukharà, de Samarcanda i de Nakhshab són esmentats; el comandant samànida Karatigin al-Isfidjabi va finançar també un ribat. La ciutat estava exempta de taxes com a lloc fronterer; es pagava un tribut simbòlic i s'enviava algun regal a l'emir samànida a Bukharà. La ciutat era una fortalesa típica amb un fortí central (ark) i una ciutat fortificada (shahristan) que formava una altura important protegida per murs que també protegien els ravals (rabad). Era lloc de comerç entre els productes dels nòmades i els sedentaris; el cotó era un mercat molt important que descriu Al-Mukaddasi; els mercaders de cotó (suk al-karabis) eren dels més actius; la caritat recollia 7000 dirhams al mes.

Fou una escala de les caravanes de la ruta de la seda cap a Taixkent a l'est i cap a Taraz al sud. Al segle X els turcs van adoptar l'islam com a religió i ja abans del 1000 la ciutat era el centre del territori anomenat Torkān-e āštī (Turcs en treva o turs musulmans) fins al Sir Darya i tenia 1/3 de la mesura de Bankat, capital del districte vei de Shahs. Estava governada per una dinastia local (els asfgidjàbides) que Barthold suposa que era d'origen turc, el cap del qual pagava una tribu als samànides, i que exercia una autoritat més o menys efectiva cap a les estepes, on el "rei dels turcmens" d'Ordu, li enviava regals. Probablement Abu Mansur Muhammad ibn Husayn (o Hasan) al-Isfidjabi que es va revoltar el 997/998 contra els samànides i va demanar ajut al karakhànida Ilig Nasr, era membre de la dinastia.

Vers el 980 va caure en mans del karakhànida de Balasagun Bughra Khan Harun (o Hasan) que la van arrabassar als àrabs, llavors governats aquí en nom del samànida Nuh II. Els karakhànides occidentals tenien com a centres Asfidjab, Talas i Fergana, i els seus kans hi van emetre moneda. Al començament del  va caure en poder dels cumans i el khwarizmshah Ala al-Din Muhammad va devastar la zona per impedir la seva conquesta pels kara khitay dirigits per Kuchtlug.

Sota els mongols al  va agafar el nom de Sayram, que l'etimologia popular diu que ve del persa sipid o ispid que vol dir "blanc". A final d'aquest , Mahmud al-Kashghari identifica Isfidjab amb Sayram a l'obra "Diwan lughat al-Turk".

El gran xeics (cap religiós) Khodja Ahmad Yasawi (1103-1166) va tenir com a mestre al gran erudit local Hazrat Shaykh Shaxobiddin Isfijabi. Ahmad és conegut modernament com a Oqota Bobo en uzbek (Gran Pare Blanc) i està enterrat a la ciutat. Ahmed va anar a Bukhara i va estudiar i va retornar per iniciar la seva pròpia orde a Yasa. Va ser un religiós famós i tanta fama tenia que Tamerlà, molt de temps després, li va fer construir un mausoleu.

El 1211 estava en mans d'Ala al-Din Muhammad Khwarizmshah, però el 1213 va ordenar evacuar la ciutat amb tots els seus habitants al no poder defensar la zona contra Kuchlug l'usurpador mongol naiman que era ara kan kara khitai. El mateix es va fer amb Shash, Fergana (Farghana), i Kasan, repassant a l'altre costat del riu Iaxartes i deixant-la als kara khitai.

Els mongols la van conquerir a aquestos el 1218 però i van fer molt poc mal si es compara amb la propera Otrar.

Rashid al-Din (1247-1318) diu que Sayram fou anomenada Kary Sailam, i era una gran ciutat amb 40 portes; es tardava un dia a creuar la ciutat. A les fonts xineses no apareix abans de la dinastia mongola dels Yuan. En xinès la ciutat es diu 塞兰. El 1220 el monjo taoista Qiu Chuji va sortir de Shandong i va viatjar per l'Àsia Central cap a Pèrsia; en el relat del seu viatge escrit per un deixeble amb el nom de "Viatges a l'oest de Qiu Chang Chun" Sayram és esmentada.

Va estar en una zona en que entraven en disputa el Kanat de Txagatai i l'Hora de l'oest (després Horda d'Or). Tamerlà el 1377 la va concedir a Toktamish, que li havia demanat ajut; una vegada consolidat al poder, Toktamish no va acceptar el predomini de Tamerlà a la zona oriental del seu kanat, i des de 1387 va entrar en guerra amb el seu antic protector. El 1391 fou derrotat a la batalla de Kunduzcha i després altre cop el 1395. La zona va quedar per Tamerlà. El 1404 Tamerlà va concedir a Ulugh Beg (fill de Xah Rukh) els governs de Taixkent, Sayram, Yenghi, Akhira i part del regne de Mogolistan fins a la Xina; a Ibrahim Sultan (un altra fill de Xah Rukh) li va concedir el govern d'Andijan, Aksiket, Taraz i Kaixgar fins a Khotan. El 1405, a la mort de Tamerlà, Ulugh Beg i Ibrahim Sultan van retornar al Khurasan però el 1409 Xah Rukh fou reconegut emperador i el territori va quedar a cavall entre l'imperi de Txagatai i el kanat de Mogolistan.

A la dinastia Ming l'enviat imperial a la cort timúrida, Chen Cheng (陈诚), va escriure un relat del seu viatge (Xi yu fan guo zhi, que vol dir "relat dels països bàrbars de les regions occidentals", i dedica un capítol a Sayram, que era territori timúrida.

Era un centre actiu en temps de Tamerlà. Bugha Khan la va devastar junt amb Turkestan i Taixkent el 1451. A la meitat del  els tamerlànides la van perdre en favor del kan uzbek Abul Khayir. Encara en el  fou governada per Yunus Khan, avi matern de Baber o Babur. El 1522 el txagataida Mansur Khan va fer una expedició contra els kirguís que havien assolat el territori de Sayram fins a Fergana; després va passar a mans del kan dels kazakhs. El 1723 va quedar sota domini dels calmucs fins que el seu imperi fou destruït pels xinesos el 1758, tornant llavors al kazakhs. Fou part del kanat de Kokand fins al 1810 quan va passar al kanat de Bukharà, i finalment va passar a Rússia el 1864. A la ciutat encara es parla l'uzbek però un dialecte proper al kazakh.

Vegeu també
 Farab.

Referències

Ciutats del Kazakhstan

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaWikipedia


The main principle behind shamanic healing is that our physical and mental/emotional realities are orchestrated by our multidimensional spiritual selves. This self carries all our true capacity, but it also carries the imprints from all of our unresolved wounds, from this lifetime through to the ancient past, in shadow. When our minds do not know how to process hurtful events they become imprinted on our souls, directing the way our lives unfold at the physical. Once our multidimensional selves heal, our bodies and minds can finally express our true capacity.
Shamanic healers can help us shift, grow, and heal by connecting with our multidimensional selves. They are distinct in their capacity to bridge the physical and the spiritual domains, aiding in this evolutionary process. One of the main tenants of shamanic healing is that the client must be put in a trance state to let go of the wounds locked into the fear based mind. Only in trance will the mind let go of its defenses enough to effect change. There are many different kinds of shamans, and many ways to achieve these trance states. Some tribes use drumming, or dancing, while others use breath work. Others, still, use psychotropic plant medicines. While methods vary from tribe to tribe, shamanic healers share in common the idea that our dysfunctional physical reality is a projection of the imbalances in our spiritual selves.
Epigenetics: Have You Restored Your Original OS-Human Settings?
It was only 10-20 years ago that we thought of our genes as being hardwired and absolute. The dye was cast when the the DNA of our mother and father merged in the egg and a zygote was formed. A new field of biology called Epigenetics says otherwise; instead, every significant experience we have in our lives shapes us genetically into who we are. It has been shown that we are constantly turning on and off genes with our mere thoughts and how we process our experiences. With the old model, the way humans evolved over time was from one generation to the next; after you had passed your genes on to your children you were essentially genetically obsolete. We now know we continue to evolve from within a generation. While our parents give us the basic genetic building blocks, the rest is up to us. So the real question is, are you all you can be?!
I am having some incredible breakthroughs and they are coming rapidly and effortlessly. I am in awe. I feel so liberated, as if a million pounds of sludge have been given release and are now just sliding away. I am experiencing a previously unknown level of emotional safety within myself, a trust, which is allowing and encouraging the letting go. I am experiencing big shifts in my marriage, with my children and with the flow of my life. I can't wait for our next session!


Every day new patent applications for a wide diversity of technical areas are being filed all over the world. By periodical Patent Updates we can keep our customers abreast of new patent applications in their field of activity.
For a Patent Update we start to draft a search profile in close cooperation with the customer. A periodical report (e.g. every quarter) is then published with an overview of new patent applications in tabular form with 1-page summaries for each new patent family.


text:
Famous face
Persian Arabic Spanish
Date of Release : 06 January 2022 - 07:01
Hazrat Fatima (SA) an Exemplary Character to the World
Hazrat Fatima (SA), is the daughter of beloved Prophet Muhammad (PBUH), the prophet of Islam.
According to Rahyafte(the missionaries and converts website)She was born in 605 CE about four to five years before her father was granted the first revelation from Allah (Quran).
Umm Abeeha, Hazrat Zahra
Due to the extent of her love and affection for her father and the fact that she was always with him and trying to defend him, just as a mother, she was also known as "Umm Abeeha" (mother of his father).
Right from her early age, she acquired the best possible qualities from her father and mother Khadija. She was also titled as Al-Zahra, which means "the fabulous one", mostly because of her remarkable personality which resembled to his father.
Showered with love
She was very young when she lost her mother in 619 CE. Since then, her father, Prophet Muhammad (PBUH) played an important role in her upbringing and strived to instill in her the qualities that he admired in his wife, such as modesty, humility, spirituality, and generosity.
Hazrat Fatima was showered with his father's overwhelming love. The Holy Prophet (PBUH) has said "Fatima is part of me. Whatever upsets her upsets me, and whatever harms her harms me."
The fact that her parents and especially her father, lavish love on her could also play an important role for developing such admirable traits and should become a model for good parenting.
A fervent supporter of prophet (PBUH)
Since Hazrat Fatima's childhood, Prophet Muhammad (PBUH) faced ridicule, oppression, financial boycotts, and even physical abuse when he started preaching Islam in Mecca, from 610 CE onwards. Fatmia (SA) and her mother Khadija were prophet's biggest supporters.
The incidence of infidels throwing filth on Prophet (PBUH) in the house of God and Fatima (AS) bravely coming and removing it in the midst of enemies is an example of her support for her father.
For almost 3 years, Fatima (AS), her parents and all the supporters of Islam had to face blockade of Shi`b Abi Talib, when all the tribes boycotted prophet and those who had accepted Islam.
Shi`b Abi Talib was a small valley which the uncle of Muhammad (PBUH) made for shielding Muslims from Makkan oppressions.
Soon after the blockade was over, Fatima (AS) had to bear the tragic loss of Her Mother, Khadijah, and the dignified defender of His Father, Abu Taalib.
Despite all such tragic happenings and hardships in her early life she always acted as an embodiment of patience and determination throughout the process and supported her father.
Fatima (SA) establishes the value of women
When Arab people buried their daughters alive, with the birth of Fatima (SA) Allah revealed the Chapters of Kauthar, Qadr and Dahr to praise her auspicious birth.
Her birth firmly established the value of women in the Islamic society. The respect Prophet (PBHU) had for her powerfully reflects on the importance of women in society, who are neither superior to men nor inferior.
Fatima (SA) is suitable role-model for salvation and guiding all on the path to perfection.
At the time of advent of Islam women were severely oppressed because of the paganic thinking prevalent in mecca.
Under such harsh circumstances, Hazrat Fatima (SA) performed several individual and communal roles.
She is a role model daughter, wife, mother, teacher, mentor, social worker, helper and supporter of needy, house-master, worshipper, an active promoter of Islamic modest dress and modest values for women, a financial manager, and a true follower of Islam.
The door of the house of Imam Ali (AS) and Harzat Fatima (SA) at the Prophet's Mosque, Medina
A caring wife
Hazrat Fatima (SA) got married to Hazrat Ali (AS), who was not rich man, but she never complained, conveying a great message to adopt modesty and patience.
Imam Ali (AS), a true companion of Prophet (PBUH), was mostly involved in the defense of Islam and Muslims and was away from the house during battles and other missions he was sent by the Prophet, while Fatima (SA) in addition to excellent management of the house supported her husband as well.
A generous soul
Her generosity and compassion for the poor is remarkable as well. No destitute or beggar ever returned from her door unattended.
She was seen giving away her own marriage dress, jewelry, food and other material possessions to the needy Muslims whenever required.
Fatima and her husband always fulfill their duties towards needy people. There are instances of her and Imam Ali (AS) sleeping hungry while feeding a Muslim passenger.
Once she gave away her and her children's food for three days to needy only for the sake of God.
An extraordinary master
Hazrat Fatima (SA) was an extraordinary house master. She allowed alternate day house chores for her maid-servant, Fizzah. She took turns every other day with her maid-servant in house hold work. Therefore, one day Hazrat Fatima (SA) would do the household work while her maid servant Fizzah would take rest.
This routine was established in hard times when prophet (PBUH) and Imam Ali (AS) were away from house fighting in various wars and that is an indication of Fatima's (SA) strong sense of human values and human rights to its utmost level.
A great teacher and mentor
Truly, Hazrat Fatima (SA) was a great mentor for all her children. All her gear qualities are reflected in lives of her children: Imam Hassan (AS) and Imam Hussein (AS), and Hazrat Zainab (SA) and Umme – Kulthum (SA).
They were brought up in such a manner by her that reflected high level moral, intellectual and spiritual indoctrination. Lives of these personalities and their brilliant role in the most adverse moments of the history of Islam is a proof of the perfect upbringing they received from their mother.
A true believer
From the spiritual point of view, she prayed a lot and was detached from worldly distractions and was praised by Allah.
While praying the whole night to God she prayed for the well-being of others. She would give preference to the members of the Muslim society over her own family members.
A knowledgeable lady
While she was an affectionate wife and a perfect mother her skills of eloquence, her political and social expertise and powerful foresight, demonstrates how a Muslim woman can attain high spiritual and social positions at a young age.
Hazrat Fatima (SA) was a very knowledgeable woman. She could answer and clarify difficult and complicated issues. Her sermons, poems and sayings are evidence of her intellectual, strength of character and nobility of mind.
A Courageous woman, a voluntary social worker
She was also a courageous woman and accompanied her father in thirty wars.
She used to help the Muslim army, nurse the injured soldiers, console the families that had lost their dear ones, helping needy and orphans irrespective of her own needs and difficult situation.
She accepted anyone seeking remedy for their needs with all her heart.
Fatima (SA), a women with multidimensional personality
During her short life, she powerfully played different roles and has definitely impacted the course of history both by her great efforts in upbringing her children and her social contributions.
And managing to handle all these roles is the result of her multidimensional personality and such performance could only be possible with her strong and intimate bond with God and her father, prophet of God.
Muslim women in today's world can benefit a lot in their performance of different roles in a Muslim society as well as in their personal lives, if they set the illuminating and magnificent personality of Hazrat Fatima (SA) as their ideal.
A miniature depicting the last moments Hazrat Fatima (SA) life by Ali Bahraini
Martyrdom
Fatimah was martyred only a short time after her father's sad demise when she was only 18 years old, but the date of her death is disputed.
She was buried in the Jannat al-Baqi graveyard (also known as Baqi), but her gravesite is not known, there is speculation that this was done at her behest, to show her dissatisfaction with the people of her time.
siyece:iqna
By Maryam Qarehgolzou, Hazrat Fatima (SA), imam ali ،, Islam, prophet muhammad ،, role model
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Islam shows and guides us to the right path, Islam teach us everything.
"God and god of science" written by Syed Hasan Raza Jafri
Comprehensive Database Mstbsryn, missionaries and Rhyaftgan
Copyright © 2016 Rahyafte Inc. All rights reserved.
Atieh Ertebat Kish


Chicago Zoological Society - Chicago…where does your garden grow?
HomeBlogs Carlita the Croc November 2015 Chicago…where does your garden grow?
Chicago…where does your garden grow? I'm more of a meat and meat kind of girl…but I hear you hippies, I mean humans, like your veggies. To each her own, I say, and to prove that, I want to tell you about community gardens.
It seems the backyard/local/community gardening is becoming more en vogue these days. But, some people want to make it more than fashionable, they want to create a tool to make community gardens more accessible for all. That's pretty nice of them.
This article from onEarth talks about Chicago's "no-so-secret gardens" and says that the victory gardens of World War II produced up to 40% of the nation's fruits and vegetables. The author, Susan Cosier, thinks you can do better. I think she's right. Imagine how much more economical locally sourced produce would be! It would cut costs on processing, packaging and shipping if you could go to a community garden and buy, or even PICK your own produce! Imagine how fresh and delicious it would be, too!
Interested? Great, because the Advocates for Urban Agriculture are working on the Chicago Urban Agriculture Mapping Project. This is that tool I mentioned earlier that will make those community gardens more accessible, and maybe even encourage more of you to take the gardening plunge! The idea is to put each garden, whether it's a backyard patch or an urban farm, on the map with a listing of the types of produce available. What a great way to make it easy for citizens in a community to support local food growers, and also for restaurants to do the same by making it easy to find their ingredients close by!
Hey look! Even CZS's partner Eden Place Nature Center is listed!
Gardening doesn't just benefit urban areas for the food it produces, it also beautifies neighborhoods, builds a sense of community, and can be a source of nature-therapy to ease the stresses of urban life. Coolest of all, gardens are a carbon-sink, meaning they filter out that rampant carbon dioxide that is cause of climate change.
So, don't get left out. Check out the websites, make sure your favorite garden is listed, and get to growing locally!


I keep them locked down tight.
When the moment is just right.
Held loosely within my hands.
To shout across the lands.
She is worthless in my eyes.
From spilling all her lies?
Wrapped tight and crushing my chest.
And put the suspensions to rest.
That his deception knows no bounds.
She was always dumb and mean.
Would we act as we try to seem?
And others are just waiting to strike.
And hers and his and theirs.
And remember I told you to bewares.


Importance of Credit Reporting, Credit Report Maintenance | Russell Van Beustring P.C.
At various points in their lives, most people will need to submit a report of their credit for review. A credit report is a complete compilation of an individual's debts, loans, and bankruptcy filings. An institution, such as a bank, will generally look at someone's credit report when that individual is planning to make a significant purchase for which they do not currently have the funds, requiring a payment plan. Any questionable or negative activity on a credit report may disqualify someone from receiving the support that they need. This is especially relevant with regard to false credit reporting, which is illegal and may require the victim to take legal action.
If you have been the victim of false credit reporting, there are measures you can take to repair your credit. A Houston credit reporting attorney of the Russell Van Beustring P.C., can help you repair the incorrect information on your credit report and restore your financial security. To speak with a qualified member of our staff, call our office today at 713-973-6650.
Rather than avoiding the issue, it is often best to tackle the difficult situation of false credit reports at once to avoid further complications.
The Houston bankruptcy lawyers of the Russell Van Beustring P.C., are prepared to assist you in repairing your credit history in the event that you are suffering from false reporting. Call our office today for a complimentary case consultation at 713-973-6650.


This task is to document in detail the formulation process of the integrated ESE model. This should be carried out following the requirements of scientific peer-reviewed journal publication (sections: Material and Methods, Supplementary material).
Describe and document the integrated ESE model and its units at process and functional levels (diagrams, tables).
Document the model development (software, data, scaling, formulations, settings).
Document model tests and limitations (linkages, approximations, calibrations, calibration, sensitivity).


text:
Cardiff City pre-season tour blow as Bluebirds struggle to arrange matches against top flight opposition
Russell Slade's side have long had a trip to the Netherlands in the diary, but as yet there are no games booked in against any top Dutch outfits
Chris WathanChief Football Writer
Cardiff City manager Russell Slade and coach Paul Trollope
The latest Cardiff City January transfer news and updates on Neil Harris' future sent straight to your inbox
Cardiff City's preparations for the new campaign could be hit by complications over their pre-season tour to the Netherlands.
Russell Slade's side are set to travel to the Amsterdam area as part of their build-up to the new Championship season next month with the Bluebirds boss having set out plans to take on top-flight Dutch sides during the week trip.
But sources in Holland have suggested Cardiff are struggling to arrange a game against top-level opposition because of issues with local permission – and time is fast running out to come up with contingency plans.
It could mean the Bluebirds are forced to make do with friendlies against lower level opponents while on the continent, which would be a blow to Slade's preparation ahead of a crunch start to the side's bid to make a viable push for promotion.
Slade had said the club were in negotiations with two top flight Dutch clubs more than a month ago with the names to be announced within a week. It is understood one of those sides was NAC Breda, yet no agreement has been made.
Pictures: The team of free transfers Cardiff City could target
Team of 'frees' Cardiff City should target.. and other options
Cardiff City announce pre-season friendly against Premier League new boys Watford at Cardiff City Stadium
Cardiff City 2015/16 kit: The Bluebirds will kick off the season in blue for the first time since 2011
It has been suggested to WalesOnline that the issue could be in gaining the green light from the local administration who are wary of the costs and complications of hosting a high-profile British club.
Swansea City have experienced similar problems in the past with a game – also against Breda – cancelled at the last minute when the local mayor refused to sanction the game.
Cardiff are tight-lipped on the speculation but have maintained that the trip will go ahead, although they have still not said who the Bluebirds will face and what standard they play at.
We have been told Cardiff had confirmed one match, but pulled out of the clash after discovering the opposition played on a 4G pitch. We understand they were concerned about potential injuries to players.
Slade spoke of the importance of his first full pre-season at the end of the last campaign and has instructed players to return to the club's training base next week for individual fitness testing before embarking on a boot camp in Leicestershire.
Games against Forest Green Rovers and Shrewsbury precede the planned trip to the Netherlands where games were scheduled for July 21 and July 24.
Cardiff are due to announce one home friendly – planned to be against Premier League or foreign top-flight opposition – before a game at last year's Championship winners Bournemouth on July 31
Cardiff kick off the new season with a home fixture against Fulham on August 8.
Russell Slade