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International portfolio update
April 2018 · 32 min read
THE FUND DECLINED 0.1% against the benchmark return of -1.0%, bringing its rolling 12-month performance to 16.3% against the 14.9% returned by the MSCI All Country World Index (ACWI).
Japan was the best-performing region, rising 1.0% (in US dollar terms) over the quarter. The weakest return was from Pacific ex-Japan, which declined 3.7% (in US dollar terms). Europe also fell by 1.9% (in US dollar terms) and North America was 1.0% weaker. Emerging markets advanced 1.1% (in US dollar terms), outperforming developed markets. On a look-through basis, the fund is overweight North America and emerging markets and underweight Japan, while its weighting in Europe is in line with the benchmark.
Among the global sectors, information technology (+3.2%) and consumer discretionary (+1.5%) generated the best returns. The worst-performing sectors were telecommunications (-6.4%), energy (-6.1%) and consumer staples (-5.7%). On a look-through basis, the fund benefited from its overweight position in information technology and consumer discretionary, and its underweight position in utilities and telecommunications. Its overweight positions in consumer staples and materials detracted from performance.
The fund's relative outperformance over the quarter was largely a result of good performance across the portfolio. Two standout performers were Egerton Capital and Tremblant Capital.
Egerton Capital returned 2.9% on strong performances from Airbus (+13%), as its order book rose strongly; Adobe (+23%), after its ongoing move to the Cloud gave rise to a strong earnings announcement; and Adidas (+18%), following the release of a good set of results and a large share buyback. An overweight position in information technology also boosted returns.
Tremblant Capital returned 2.2%. Its large exposure to consumer discretionary stocks boosted returns even though CBS, one its top holdings, declined by 13% over the period. Palo Alto Networks (+25%) benefited from the recent US tax cuts as well as improved earnings, while FinecoBank (+14%) saw strong deposit inflows and margin improvement.
Maverick Capital, which has had a tough time in recent quarters, delivered strong alpha this past quarter. Its sizeable exposure to healthcare has been the most significant driver of underperformance over the 12-month period, especially its holding in Shire Pharmaceutical. After large losses in Shire, Maverick Capital re-examined the investment thesis, decided it remained intact and maintained its position. This was rewarded in March when Takeda Pharmaceutical Company announced its intention to bid for Shire, and the price of Shire rose strongly. The manager also benefited from Envision Healthcare (+11%) and Adobe (+23%).
Contrarius Global Equity also had a good quarter. Like Tremblant, it benefited from a meaningful exposure to the consumer discretionary sector, especially the bricks-and-mortar stores such as Macy's (+20%), Dine Brands (+30%) and Abercrombie & Fitch (+40%), which rebounded sharply. Twitter, a long-held position which has disappointed since its listing, also rose strongly after reporting a robust set of financial results.
The strategy had a disappointing start to the year, underperforming its benchmark by nearly 5% over the quarter. This has affected the strategy's longer-term numbers.
The strategy's biggest positive contributors included Amazon (continued rerating on the back of sound execution and speculation about entering other categories), Advance Auto Parts (turnaround strategy gaining early traction after an oversold share price), Hammerson (an unexpected bid for the company being rebuffed by the Board) and Airbus (a recent portfolio introduction continuing to execute well). The largest detractor was the prior quarter's top performer, L Brands, which saw a poor trading statement result in its share price retreating to previous lows. Other losers included Altice NV (a cable operator with poor results in its home market, France), Tata Motors (a victim of market volatility and poor short-term sales numbers) and Intu Properties (amid fears that the proposed Hammerson deal would fall through). Some of the strategy's consumer staple holdings were also marked down in line with the comments above.
We have significantly increased the portfolio's exposure to tobacco stocks over the last 12 months. Currently close to 10% of the strategy is invested in stocks such as <LINK British American Tobacco>, Philip Morris International, Japan Tobacco and Imperial Brands. While each company potentially offers a slightly different angle in terms of future returns, the overarching investment thesis is that the development of next generation products – while disruptive to the incumbent players in what has been a very stable industry – could prove to present the market with a new growth vector. Heat-not-burn and vapour products have found favour with both existing smokers and ex-smokers, and allow the industry to benefit from premium pricing. The recently announced Food and Drug Administration review of the industry in America has increased uncertainty in the shorter term, allowing us to pay what we would consider to be attractive prices for these stocks. In the longer run, we anticipate the larger players to consolidate new technologies, leading to improving margins compared to the combustible market (assuming no adverse tax developments). Some of these companies are now trading at valuation multiples not far off those levels when they were facing potentially crippling financial legal claims, and we think these positions will serve the strategy well over the medium to longer term.
While the strategy's short-term performance has been a disappointment, we take encouragement from the fact that the portfolio is showing very attractive potential upside based on our assessment of fair value for our individual holdings.
The strategy had a disappointing start to the year, underperforming its quantitative benchmark by more than 3.5% for the quarter. Over the longer time periods and since inception, the strategy return is still comfortably ahead of its benchmark.
Our decision to reduce the strategy's equity exposure some time ago added to relative performance, but our stock selection underperformed the ACWI benchmark materially over the quarter as well as over the last 12 months. Our instrument selection in property was also poor, as was our overweight position in the asset class. Our credit positions in fixed income performed well, and our gold holding added marginally. Over the last 12 months our biggest detractors were our underweight position in equity and our stock selection within the equity bucket.
Our biggest positive equity contributors included Amazon, Advance Auto Parts, Hammerson and Airbus. The largest equity detractor was the prior quarter's top performer, L Brands. Other losers included Altice, Tata Motors and Intu Properties. Some of our consumer staple holdings were also marked down in line with the comments above. (For more detail on the fund's equity holdings, refer to the Coronation Global Equity Strategy above.)
While the strategy's short-term performance has been a disappointment, we take encouragement from the fact that the portfolio is showing very attractive potential upside based on our assessment of fair value for our individual holdings in the equity and property buckets. We continue to manage overall portfolio risk, and again over the last quarter we paid around 25 basis points (bps) away in the form of portfolio insurance. The cost of protection has now risen materially, and we would in all likelihood not replace the current protection measures when they expire.
The strategy returned -2.4% for the first quarter of 2018, 3.8% behind its benchmark in what has been a challenging start to the year and indeed other shorter-term periods. Over meaningful periods, the strategy remains ahead of its benchmark, delivering outperformance of 0.4% per annum over the five-year period, 2.9% per annum over seven years, and 4.2% per annum since inception almost a decade ago.
The biggest positive contributors for the quarter all came from positions that added positively, rather than underweight positions in stocks that performed poorly. The biggest positive contributor was Airbus, up 16% for the quarter and contributing +0.52%. We continue to believe that Airbus is very attractively valued, with 45% upside to fair value, and as such it remains a large position, at 4% of strategy. The second largest positive contributor was global sportswear group Adidas (c. 55% of revenue from emerging markets), which was bought back into the strategy earlier in the year after we sold it in 2015. Since the date of reintroducing Adidas to the strategy up until quarter-end, the share price gained 22%, contributing +0.50% to alpha. As at end-March, it represented a 3% position in the strategy. Other notable positive contributors were the top Chinese online classifieds company, 58.com (+11% return, +0.35% attribution) and the leading bank in Russia, Sberbank (+10% return, +0.24% attribution).
Adidas was the largest new buy this quarter. We had previously owned only Nike, Adidas's perennial industry rival. At the time of purchasing Nike in late 2016, the share was unloved by investors due to concerns over its perceived dependence on the US market and the basketball category in general. At the same time, Adidas could do no wrong as product innovations and other general operational improvements led to market share gains in the US and a substantial improvement in brand equity in most operating regions. Other sportswear groups also seemed to be making headway at Nike's expense in the US, most notably Under Armour Inc., which at one point reached an earnings multiple of more than 40 times. Despite our attraction to the industry, we believed that Nike was substantially undervalued and Adidas looked expensive. Fast forward to just over a year and Nike's share price has increased by close to 35%, while Adidas's lagged significantly, having declined by 5% since March 2017 until time of purchase in January 2018.
The lag in Adidas created a buying opportunity, and the stock has performed very well in this short space of time. The purchase was partially funded by a reduction in the Nike position size, which has gone from over 2% of strategy in recent months to just under 1% by end-March. Although both Adidas and Nike may appear optically expensive based on near-term multiples (c. 24 to 25 times forward earnings), we believe they have well above average earnings growth prospects in the years ahead, driven by changing consumer habits toward greater fitness and 'athleisure', while the companies themselves have identified several routes to raising margins. These include improvements in manufacturing (to lower wasted materials) and increased direct-to-consumer sales (where the retail markup is captured in addition to the usual wholesale margin). In addition to this, Adidas's earnings before interest and tax margins at c. 9% to 10% are still well below that of Nike at c. 13% to 14%. (You can read more about the Adidas investment case <LINK ADDIDAS here.>).
Besides Adidas, the only other new buy was a 1% position in KB Financial, the largest financial services group in South Korea. While banking is a relatively poor industry in South Korea in our view (the industry is mature, heavily regulated in favour of the consumer and has low returns on investment), in the case of KB Financial, we were attracted to the steps new management has taken and continue to take to improve returns. These include acquisitions in areas that have more attractive prospects (e.g. securities), acceleration of digital investment on the banking side and headcount reductions. Since the appointment of a new CEO (and full new management team) in late 2014, returns on investment have increased from c. 5% to c. 10%. Today KB Financial trades on seven times earnings, 0.7 price-to-book, with a 3.5% dividend yield for a company that, in our view, can grow earnings by c. 10% per annum over the next five years.
Over the quarter we continued to reduce the strategy's Chinese internet exposure as share prices rose and as such moved closer to fair value. We reduced the position in 58.com to 3% of strategy – the share was up 11% in the quarter and would have been approaching a 4% position in the absence of any action. We also lowered the strategy's position in Baidu by 0.5% to 2.1%, in JD.com by 1.5% to 4.1% and sold out of Alibaba (as it reached our estimate of fair value) as well as Altaba (the former Yahoo whose main asset now is its stake in Alibaba). The combined Alibaba/Altaba position was close to 2.5% at the start of the year. Most notably for the quarter, we reduced our Naspers position by close to 3.5% to just under 4% of strategy. This was driven predominantly by concerns over the valuation of Tencent, which is Naspers's single biggest investment. We also sold out of Aspen (given more attractive risk-adjusted opportunities elsewhere) and Yum China (due to valuation).
We increased the strategy's position size in Ping An, China's largest private insurer, by 1.5% to 3.9%, and raised the holding in global tobacco group British American Tobacco from 3.7% to 5.9%, both as a result of share price weakness.
Two stocks made up the bulk of the strategy's underperformance this quarter: Russian retailer Magnit, which declined by 32% during the quarter (-1.41% attribution) and private educational company Kroton, which lost 26% (-1.44% attribution). We have written extensively about both businesses in recent years and therefore focus here on incremental news as well as why the shares have been so negatively affected recently. Magnit had already been performing poorly relative to its previous high standards in recent quarters, with sales growth declining from mid-20s to single digits. This was mostly driven by space rather than same-store sales growth. The company's recent struggles seem to have eventually led the founder and CEO Sergei Galitsky to give up and leave the business. He had been slowly reducing his position over time to fund his philanthropic work, but eventually came to the view that, from a personal perspective, staying around for a recovery in the business and share price was not worth it. The sale of most of his c. 30% stake to Russian investment bank VTB Capital (that will look to increase its value substantially for a resale) has led to meaningful changes in management and strategy that we believe will be beneficial in the long term. An example is the company's historical overemphasis on maintaining margins at the expense of reinvesting in the existing store base. This worked fine when the competition was weak and fragmented, but as X5 Retail improved its operations in recent years, the product offering at X5's stores far exceeded Magnit's more basic stores and led to negative traffic at Magnit. We believe that greater reinvestment in the business would have delivered better returns, as fewer customers would have been lost to competitors and the additional sales revenue would have delivered greater absolute profits to Magnit, even if margins were slightly lower. Galitsky's exit also highlighted that the business has been lacking in professional management, with many senior managers being responsible for multiple portfolios. Professionalising the management structure and having distinct control of functions assigned to specialist managers will help improve processes and make the company less dependent on a single individual in future. We were buyers of Magnit over the quarter and at end-March it was a 3.7% position.
The other big detractor has been Kroton, which has fully given up the gains it achieved since the blocking of its merger with Estácio by competition authorities in the middle of last year. Investor perception toward the private education industry in Brazil has cooled in recent quarters due to a variety of factors. First, intakes have declined or stagnated as affordability has become more of an issue for students. Although the Brazilian economy has exited its deep recession of 2015 and 2016, the recovery has been very shallow, without a substantial improvement in job prospects for the workforce. With most of the students working in the day and studying by night, the poor job market has made affordability quite difficult for new entrants and has even affected the existing student base, which has seen a spike in dropouts after holding up well until recently. Ordinarily the government student financing scheme would have helped maintain enrolment momentum, but since 2015 this scheme has been halved and made more expensive for those that qualify. The tough market has also put pressure on pricing, with many industry players offering discounts to entice students, leading to lower average fees ('tickets', as they are referred to in Brazil). This has been particularly pronounced in the distance learning segment where barriers to entry were lowered substantially by the government last year. From a high level viewpoint, the industry is seen as one where near-term revenues will be under pressure, so the only chance of decent profit growth is through margin expansion. As the largest player in the industry and with many government student loan beneficiaries due to graduate this year and the next, the market is pricing Kroton for revenues to decline. As its margins are already the highest in the industry (thanks to economies of scale and excellent management) there is little scope for Kroton to deliver earnings growth if one subscribe to this viewpoint. Kroton has therefore de-rated to 10 times earnings.
While we acknowledge the merit in some of these issues, we believe there are strong counterarguments that make Kroton a very compelling investment, which is why we have been increasing the position into share price weakness. It is important to identify that the longer-term drivers of the industry remain intact – Brazil has a dire skills shortage and the return on investment for students who study certain courses is very high. The industry is fragmented and the profitability of smaller players is minimal – many survive simply because they own the building out of which they operate and therefore do not have to pay rent. Kroton's high market share should therefore not serve as a barrier over long periods of time to continued student growth, as the market will consolidate over time. Kroton's scale and strong brands make its degrees more attractive, which raises long-term pricing power. With its solid balance sheet and high profitability, the company is uniquely positioned within the industry to offer pioneering financing schemes that allow students to spread out their payments beyond the duration of their degree, which will make them more affordable to marginal students. This will help offset some of the negative impact of lower government student loans.
During the quarter we met with the CEO, CFO, CTO and various divisional heads of Kroton in Brazil. In our view, the strength and depth of management at the company places it among the best in emerging markets. Kroton long ago identified that pricing would be an issue and has slowly migrated its intake away from low-ticket courses such as business administration into more technical courses (like nursing, dentistry, education and law) where the average ticket is three to four times higher and the barriers to entry for smaller players to follow are far higher. The regulatory hurdles that limit the pace at which new courses can be added to existing universities mean this process will take several years to play out, but the end result will be higher student numbers driven by organic growth, higher average tickets as Kroton's course mix shifts toward more expensive courses and higher margins as the company reaps further economies of scale. Kroton is also making a concerted push into the private school market as this industry also has great economics (a student stays with you for 12 years instead of 4) and remains very fragmented despite many strong local brands. At 10 times earnings we believe you are buying the current earnings stream at a substantial discount and getting all of the above optionality for free. Kroton was a 5.0% position at end-March and is the second largest position in the strategy.
Members of the team continue to travel extensively to enhance our understanding of the businesses we own in the strategy, their competitors and the countries in which they operate. In the quarter the team visited Brazil, India and China, while we will visit Russia, South Korea, Taiwan, Indonesia and Singapore in the coming weeks. The weighted average upside to fair value of the strategy at the end of March was c. 45%.
After a strong performance in 2017, markets across Africa continued to rise in the first three months of 2018. Against this backdrop, the strategy's gross return was 12.2%, compared to its target (3 Month USD Libor + 5%) which was up 1.7% and the FTSE/JSE All Africa ex-SA 30 Index, which was up 11.9% for the quarter.
While volatility increased in developed markets, the large African economies shrugged off these concerns and went from strength to strength. Over the quarter, Egypt was up 15.1%, Kenya up 13.7%, Nigeria up 9.5% and Morocco up 7.4%. Zimbabwe was down 10.1%; however, this is somewhat misleading as the decline in equity prices was due in part to an improved economic outlook and increased trust in the monetary system. Equities are no longer viewed as a necessary safe haven and cash holdings have increased in the hope of currency normalisation following the November 2017 regime change.
The main contributors to performance over the quarter were Eastern Tobacco, Stanbic IBTC and Seplat Petroleum, which contributed a combined 6.1% to the strategy's performance. Eastern Tobacco benefited from a number of improvements in its corporate governance, the share's inclusion in the MSCI Emerging Markets and the FTSE indices and speculation that the company would pay out its excess cash reserves by way of an interim dividend. An interim dividend was confirmed in early April. There were no meaningful detractors, with no single position detracting more than 25 bps.
We continue to be fully invested in Egypt and we are very excited about the prospects of our various investments. Over the quarter we met a number of Egyptian corporates in Cairo, Cape Town and Dubai. Most talked to an improving trading environment. Inflation has normalised, with March seeing headline inflation of 13.3%, down from the 33.0% peak in July 2017. The Central Bank cut interest rates by 200 bps during the quarter and most economists expect further cuts in the coming months. The reforms put through over the past two years are already bearing fruit. As inflation and interest rates continue to decline, we would expect Egypt to experience a multiyear period of growth. Given the past few years of hardship it is unsurprising that many of the companies we meet have earnings well below our estimate of normal. As such, despite the stock market performance, we continue to find companies that are trading below their intrinsic value.
The strategy significantly increased its exposure to Qatar National Bank Alahli (QNBA) over the quarter. QNBA is the largest private sector bank by loans and second-largest by deposits in Egypt. The bank is well positioned to benefit from Egypt's improved business confidence. As interest rates decline, loan volumes should pick up meaningfully. As loans increase, so too should the associated fees and commissions. This will drive a normalisation in non-interest revenue, which is currently at multiyear lows. Over the longer term, the Egyptian banking sector is incredibly attractive. Credit penetration is very low at c. 35% and retail growth should continue for years to come. Finally, QNBA's parent Qatar National Bank is well funded, with strong international relationships that stand to benefit QNBA. The share trades at half the price-to-book multiple of the more liquid Commercial International Bank (CIB). We do not believe that simply because a company has a larger free float, it should trade at twice the price of a less liquid peer. As a result, while we believe that CIB is an attractive investment in its own right, we see QNBA as more attractive from a valuation perspective.
While we remain excited by the holdings in Egypt and across the strategy, we are always skeptical when years start as strongly as 2018 has. We are pleased with performance year-to-date but remain mindful that markets are volatile and seldom increase in a straight line. We continue to believe that for the valuation-focused, bottom-up investor, returns in the long run will be attractive despite any near-term volatility.
The strategy returned 7.2% (gross) for the quarter, compared to the target (3 Month USD Libor +3.5%) which was up 1.4% and the MSCI Frontier Markets Index, which was up 5.1% over this period. The strong performance was driven by Vietnam (+18.4%), Egypt (+15.1%), Kenya (+13.7%), Nigeria (+9.5%), Morocco (+7.4%) and Kuwait (+5.1%), while Bangladesh (-12.9%) and Argentina (-5.3%) declined.
When selecting investments we use a bottom-up, valuation-driven approach. We are completely benchmark agnostic and our focus is to generate attractive absolute returns for investors in the fund, rather than to outperform an often poorly constructed benchmark. We avoid overpaying for companies where valuations are not justified, which ensures that we minimise the risk of a permanent loss of capital. A case in point is some of the valuations we currently see in Vietnam.
We visited Vietnam in March where we met with a number of companies. With strong GDP growth and booming exports it is easy to see why investors love the country. The market is incredibly well liked and is widely held in frontier and even emerging market funds. As a result, Vietnam is up 18.4% over the past three months and up 61.5% over the past 12 months.
From a bottom-up perspective, however, the market is trickier. Many companies have reached their foreign ownership limits, which means that foreigners have to pay large premiums to buy shares in these companies – sometimes as high as 30%. Your return as an investor will therefore be materially different from the return shown by the quoted share price.
There are a number of quality businesses in Vietnam we would want to own at the right price; however, the optimism is clearly reflected in the valuations of these businesses. A number of banks are trading on price-to-book valuations above three times; for one of the largest banks in the country, Vietcombank, you now have to pay almost five times book value. There are also many consumer-focused businesses trading on high price/earnings multiples, some higher than 30 times earnings. Recently, a stake in Sabeco, the country's largest beer producer, was sold at a multiple of approximately 44 times earnings. The growth that these businesses will have to achieve over the next few years to justify these multiples are simply too ambitious in our view. In our experience, paying a high multiple on earnings that are already at elevated levels is very dangerous.
We believe that the benefits of a valuation-driven approach is demonstrated by the fact that despite owning no companies in Vietnam over the last three months and only a small position over the past year, the strategy still performed better than the MSCI Frontier Markets Index over three months, one year and since its inception in December 2014. The largest contributors to performance over the past quarter were Eastern Tobacco (adding 1.5% to the strategy return) and CFC Stanbic (adding 0.9%). Both are quality companies which we own because they trade well below our assessment of fair value and not because of their weight in an index.
Another problem with an index benchmark is that a company's and a country's weight in the index increase as valuations get higher. As value investors, we prefer the opposite – as a company becomes more expensive, the position size in the fund should reduce. A year ago, when valuations in Vietnam were much lower than what they are today, Vietnam accounted for less than 10% of the MSCI Frontier Markets Index. Today Vietnam is more than 15% of the index.
We believe there are a number of very attractive opportunities across the frontiers universe. We hold investments that trade below our assessment of intrinsic value and we size our positions according to the return opportunity on an absolute basis, irrespective of the size of these investments in any particular benchmark. By doing so, we believe that the strategy will deliver attractive long-term returns to our investors.
The fund returned 1.2% for the quarter and 7.5% over the last 12 months, against a return of 1.4% and 7.0% respectively from the Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index.
US yields continued to rise over the quarter and US government bonds were by far the weakest of the major markets, with a total return of -1.2%. German yields rose modestly, but the income generated was sufficient for German government bonds to post a modest total return. Elsewhere, peripheral Europe and a number of emerging markets posted healthy gains despite the rise in volatility. While corporate bonds performed well during January, credit spreads widened during February and March, to the extent that they underperformed government bonds for the quarter, the first time since the end of 2015.
Global growth is currently in a sweet spot, benefiting from a cyclical upturn in all major regions, and running at its fastest rate since 2011. The question is whether the risks of a slowdown could emanate from the return of inflation a looming trade war.
After the passage of the US tax bill, the country's trade deficit has now become the focus of the Trump administration. Renegotiating the North American Free Trade Agreement
(NAFTA) may have been a first salvo, but more recently the imposition of tariffs on a range of imported products has riled allies, adversaries and investors. In addition, there are signs in many regions of more protectionist attitudes to national industry champions. Taken together, these actions in an economy growing above its potential are more likely to see price pressure increase. While tensions on the Korean peninsula appear to be easing, risks in several other geopolitical hotspots threaten market sentiment, most likely via rising energy costs.
The upward movement in US Treasury yields during the quarter reflected the impact of the passing of the tax legislation, with market participants upgrading economic forecasts for 2018 and 2019, and investors expressing concerns about the increasing size of fiscal deficits. US 10-year yields peaked at close to 3.0% in February before retracing slightly to 2.7% by quarter-end, having closed 2017 at 2.4%. The yield curve continued to flatten as shorter-dated yields rose most. With breakevens relatively stable, the bulk of the sell-off has come from rising real rates, with 10-year real yields rising to 0.7% over the quarter.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), led by the new chair Jerome Powell, raised rates in March by a further 0.25%, with the upper bound of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) funds target range now at 1.75%. The FOMC also amended its growth projections upwards to 2.7% in 2018 (from 2.5% in December and 2.1% pre-tax cuts) and 2.4% in 2019 (up from 2.1%). Its unemployment rate forecast fell slightly in 2018, and was lowered to 3.6% in 2019 and 2020. This would be consistent with the lowest unemployment rate since the late 1960s. Some investors have begun to draw parallels with policies of the Nixon administration and worry that the twin deficits will lead to a loss of confidence and a weaker dollar, as was the case in the early 1970s. The FOMC also adopted a slightly more hawkish stance in its projection of interest rates, with the dot plot rising from 2.688% in December to 2.875% in March, and 2020 projections increasing from 3.062% to 3.375%.
While official rates may have only increased by 0.25%, rates in the interbank market have been rising much faster. The 3 Month USD Libor spread has risen to 0.6% (from 0.3% at the end of December) as a result of several factors coming together. Part of this is driven by much higher Treasury bill issuance, following the resolution of the debt ceiling (further exacerbated by the Fed shrinking its balance sheet). The other element has been more supply from banks and less demand from corporates as a result of changes in the US tax system. The result is that the 3 Month USD Libor has risen 1% in the last six months. At 2.3%, it is now a credible alternative for investors who may not want exposure to longer-dated Treasuries, which are more volatile and does not carry a much higher yield at present.
We believe the Fed's 2020 forecast for its funds rate now looks overly aggressive. We remain wary of valuation in longer maturities, which we believe will face growing headwinds from rising supply and less support from overseas buyers, as hedging costs have increased. The fund switched its remaining mid-curve exposure to the five-year area of the curve and switched its inflation-linked bonds into conventional fixed rate Treasuries. Total US Treasury exposure was reduced as the fund increased exposure to emerging markets and credit.
European government bond markets performed well during the quarter, led by the periphery despite an Italian election in March that resulted in a hung parliament. Coalition talks continue in Italy after a month-long stalemate that has failed, so far, to bridge the gap between parties of very different political persuasions. Political risk has subsided in Spain for now. The ostracised Catalan leader Carles Puigdemont, who was forced to flee Spain, has so far escaped attempts by Madrid to extradite him from Germany. On the economic front, momentum has slowed to its weakest level in more than a year as the composite Purchasing Managers' Index fell abruptly in February and March. Indications still suggest annual growth in the region of 2.5% and some of the weakness may be in part explained away by weather, supply chain bottlenecks and unusually high levels of absenteeism due to flu. The slowdown comes at a delicate moment for the European Central Bank as policymakers debate further tapering of their bond buying programme. Meanwhile, inflationary pressures remain modest despite evidence of a firming of some underlying elements, such as within services.
With respect to Brexit, in March the UK reached an agreement that a 21-month transitional period would begin in March 2019, giving the impression that headway is being made in discussions with the EU. However, some of this progress is viewed by Eurosceptic Members of Parliament (MPs) as merely the result of a compromise of previous 'red lines'. While markets have become more optimistic that a manageable 'muddle-through' result will ultimately be achieved, the chances of a 'no deal' because of future insurmountable hurdles, or the failure of a final deal to be ratified by MPs, remain significant. In the meantime, inflation remains above target at a time when slack in the economy has reduced and wage pressures are picking up. A further rate increase is widely expected by the market in May, with tightening thereafter likely to be heavily dependent on whether global growth (and in particular the EU) remains above trend. Cooling house prices (albeit London-focused) and sluggish retail sales are symptomatic of the high level of indebtedness, a decline in real wages and economic uncertainty among consumers.
Emerging markets hard currency debt performed well during the quarter, despite a backdrop of weaker corporate bonds. The US-dollar denominated emerging markets debt spreads ended the quarter only 10 bps wider at 320 bps. Local currency denominated debt performed well this quarter, up 4.7% in US dollar terms. The star performers include SA (up 8.6% in local currency and 13.5% in US dollar terms) and Mexico (up 3.6% in local currency and 11% in US dollar terms). Higher inflation in the Philippines resulted in a weakening of bond yields and foreign exchange markets (resulting in a combined loss of 8% in US dollar terms), while bond market returns in Turkey and Argentina suffered against a backdrop of weaker exchange rates as investors perceived politicians to be compromising the independence of their central banks. The fund increased its exposure of predominately short-dated dollar instruments, adding to positons in Argentina and Qatar as well as switching Turkish and South African government exposure to slightly longer-dated instruments to take advantage of a steep credit curve. The fund recently added exposure to local currency Turkish government bonds where yields are now high.
Credit spreads remain relatively tight but have begun to soften slightly under the weight of supply and a less supportive equity backdrop. The weakness in corporate bonds was not limited to the US market, and euro and sterling spreads also widened. It is noteworthy that since central banks' asset purchases have begun to be reduced, markets have struggled to extend their gains. At this stage, we continue to see the immediate risk to valuations as more dependent on changes in the flow of funds into the asset class (exchange-traded funds and passive investment are significant in this regard) than solvency related. The more fundamental credit challenge will come as central banks adjust policy rates higher, the world economy begins to slow and large amounts of refinancing come due (in 2019 and 2020). After the recent move, we are more constructive on shorter-dated corporates but remain cautious of longer-dated instruments. The fund added to its credit exposure via Sasol during the quarter and via convertibles such as Intu Properties, Impala Platinum and Redefine Properties.
Within foreign exchange markets, the US dollar continued to struggle despite a continued widening in interest rate differentials. Within the G10, the yen was the best performer (up 6%) despite the Bank of Japan dismissing speculation that it may be beginning to consider tapering its stimulus programme. The Norwegian krone also performed well after the central bank lowered its inflation target from 2.5% to 2%. With inflation now above the new target, the central bank suggested a rate hike was likely as soon as September. Sterling also rallied against the US dollar (up 3.7%) just ahead of the euro (up 2.5%). The Canadian dollar was among the weakest currencies, as expectations for rate rises moderated and concerns surrounding NAFTA weighed on the currency, despite Mexico being the best-performing currency. The fund remains slightly overweight US dollars and neutral yen. An underweight position in euros remains the main funding currency for positions in emerging markets that include Mexico, Turkey and Egypt, and to a reduced extent, South Africa.
The fund remains underweight duration, predominately via low duration positions in Europe and no Japanese bond exposure. We retain a preference for shorter-duration positions within government and credit markets within the US. The fund's exposure to mainstream credit remains low with our exposure to higher yielding assets expressed via convertibles and emerging market debt. We expect the recent pickup in volatility to continue as central bank liquidity is drained from the system.
Coronation Africa Frontiers Strategy
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Contractor Willmott Dixon and architect Hawkins\Brown have been awarded the £8m contract to extend the University of Manchester's Schuster Building.
The contract is Willmott's first with the university, and was procured through the Scape National Major Works framework.
The works form part of the university's £1bn campus masterplan, designed to create a world-class campus for staff, students and visitors by 2022.
Willmott Dixon has a strong track-record of working with universities, using its knowledge of live-environment working to minimise disruption. Projects include creating a living green wall for Teesside University, building and extending Birmingham City University's Curzon building, plus Bournemouth University's new flagship Fusion building and Leicester University's Centre for Medicine, the UK's largest non-residential Passivhaus facility.
The Schuster Building on Brunswick Street is home to the School of Physics & Astronomy and the new annexe on the eastern side of the building provides space to grow the school and take in additional students in this discipline.
Willmott Dixon is working with Manchester-based architects Hawkins\Brown on the four-storey extension, which will deliver 25,000 sq ft of accommodation on unoccupied land at the corner of Upper Brook Street and Brunswick Street, directly connected to the Schuster Building via a metal bridge.
This expansion will enable the department to cater for the growing interest in physics and other STEM, or science, technology, engineering and mathematics subjects following a significant increase in applications to the School of Physics & Astronomy in recent years.


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La ricine est une protéine (glycoprotéine) très toxique, produite par un arbrisseau de la famille des euphorbiacées, le ricin (Ricinus communis). La ricine est classée comme « agent biologique toxique de catégorie B ».

Chimie, biochimie

La ricine est une glycoprotéine très toxique de poids moléculaire  DA, formée de deux chaînes polypeptidiques A et B, reliées entre elles par un pont disulfure.
La chaîne B permet à la toxine de se fixer à la paroi cellulaire et la chaîne A, responsable des propriétés toxiques, est capable d'inhiber la synthèse des protéines en attaquant l'ARN des ribosomes, entraînant la mort cellulaire.
 Elle est présente à une concentration variant de 1 à 10 % dans la graine de ricin.
 Elle peut être extraite de l'huile de ricin incomplètement purifiée.

La molécule de ricine est proche de la curcine produite par Jatropha curcas.

Toxicologie

La ricine est hautement toxique, notamment  fois plus toxique que le cyanure et  fois plus que le venin du crotale. Si elle est ingérée, elle est en grande partie détruite par les enzymes digestives protéolytiques. Mais son absorption sublinguale peut augmenter la quantité absorbée.

Elle est mille fois plus toxique inhalée par voie pulmonaire (inhalation) ou parentérale. La ricine dispersée sous forme de poudre ou d'aérosol peut entraîner dans un délai variant de quelques minutes à plusieurs heures des signes d'irritation oculaire (sensation de brûlure, larmoiement, conjonctivite plus ou moins sévère) et pharyngée ainsi qu'une irritation respiratoire plus ou moins marquée : toux, dyspnée, œdème pulmonaire pouvant conduire à un syndrome de détresse respiratoire aiguë (SDRA). Il existe un risque de réaction anaphylactique. Au-delà d'une certaine dose, les effets sont généralement irréversibles. Les symptômes apparaissent en quelques heures, conduisant à la mort de la personne exposée en trois à cinq jours. La dose létale est de .

Le mécanisme de sa toxicité n'est en  toujours pas entièrement élucidé. Une étude de  sur la glycolysation publiée dans la revue Nature apporte des détails supplémentaires à ce sujet.

Antidote
Les premières molécules protégeant contre la ricine ont été découvertes récemment (2010) par des équipes françaises. Elles ont identifié deux composés chimiques capables de bloquer de manière sélective le transport de la toxine vers les cellules humaines, après l'analyse de  composés. À la suite de l'injection d'une dose létale de ricine à des souris, elles ont pu remarquer qu'une de ces molécules leur a permis de survivre. Ces travaux ouvrent ainsi la voie à la mise au point d'un antidote.

Protection préventive
On dispose maintenant d'une molécule active préventivement, si ingérée avant l'exposition.

En 2010, une équipe a annoncé avoir découvert une molécule dite  Rétro-2, qui — in vivo — protège, préventivement, des souris contre la toxine issue de la ricine. Cette molécule semble également protéger de toxines produites par le choléra ou par la bactérie Shigella, cause de dysenteries (shigellose). Ces chercheurs avaient antérieurement identifié une autre molécule (dite Rétro-1), mais qui ne semble active que in vitro contre la toxicité de la ricine. Le mécanisme de protection est l'inhibition de l'entrée de la toxine dans les cellules cibles, entre les endosomes précoces et l'appareil de Golgi. Les souris exposées à un empoisonnement à la ricine par voie nasale ont toutes survécu (contre 15 % pour le groupe témoin).

Risque criminel
Compte tenu de son pouvoir particulièrement toxique, la ricine pourrait être employée dans le cadre d'attaques terroristes (voir bioterrorisme et Plan Biotox) ou de crime d'État. Ainsi, le , le ministre de l'Intérieur français Gérard Collomb a annoncé qu'un attentat impliquant une personne projetant une attaque à la ricine aurait été déjoué en France.

Le , la police allemande annonce avoir déjoué un attentat à la bombe à la ricine après avoir arrêté un Tunisien à Cologne ayant commencé à synthétiser le poison.

Le , l'hebdomadaire tchèque Respekt rapporte qu'un agent secret russe muni d'un passeport diplomatique serait arrivé à Prague avec de la ricine dans sa mallette. Accueilli sur place par l'ambassade de Russie, cet agent aurait pour mission d'empoisonner le préfet de Prague 6 Ondřej Kolář et le maire de la ville Zdeněk Hřib. Les deux hommes seraient visés, l'un pour avoir démonté dans son district la statue du maréchal soviétique Ivan Koniev, et l'autre pour avoir baptisé la place devant l'ambassade russe du nom de Boris Nemtsov, opposant de Poutine assassiné en 2015. Finalement, cette histoire de ricine s'avère être une pure invention et débouche sur l'expulsion du pays de deux employés de l'ambassade russe dont l'un serait à l'origine de la fausse alerte, selon le service de renseignement tchèque BIS.

Le , dans un courrier adressé au Sénat des États-Unis. Le lendemain, le président américain Barack Obama reçoit une lettre contenant également de la ricine.

En , une enveloppe contenant de la ricine est adressée à la Maison-Blanche et interceptée avant d'atteindre le président Donald Trump. Le FBI (USA) demande la collaboration de la GRC (Canada) afin d'enquêter. Cela mène à l'arrestation de Pascale Ferrier, une résidente de Longueuil au Québec. Elle qui est d'origine française a obtenu sa citoyenneté canadienne en 2015. Elle aurait aussi envoyé des lettres dans cinq destinations adressées à des institutions du Texas. Tous contenaient de la ricine selon l'enquête. Elle aurait eu plusieurs démêlés avec la justice américaine précédemment. Les lettres auraient été envoyées à partir de Montréal.

La ricine a été utilisée comme poison dans les années 1970, par les services secrets bulgares (« parapluie bulgare ») ou pour des suicides.

La ricine dans la fiction

Romans
 Dans son roman La Vengeance du Kremlin (2013), l'écrivain Gérard de Villiers met en scène une équipe de tueurs qui tentent d'assassiner Malko Linge en le piquant à l'aide d'un dard empoisonné à la ricine. Un autre produit chimique létal est employé dans le roman pour assassiner avec succès Boris Berezovsky, le fluorure de sodium.

Au cinéma et à la télévision
Dans la série télévisée Breaking Bad, la ricine est un élément central du début de la saison 2 et des saisons 3, 4 et 5.

Dans la série S.W.A.T.  saison 2 épisode 9, la ricine est utilisée dans le système de ventilation de locaux de bureau.

Dans la série Stan Lee's Lucky Man, un tueur sévit en empoisonnant ses victimes avec de la ricine dans la saison 2.

Dans la série télévisée Mentalist, la ricine est utilisée dans l'épisode 15 de la saison 2.

Dans la série télévisée Mensonges, la ricine est utilisée dans l'épisode 5 de la saison 3.

Dans la série télévisée NCIS, la ricine est utilisée dans l'épisode 21 de la saison 7.

Dans la série télévisée Monk, la ricine est utilisée dans les deux derniers épisodes de la saison 8.

Dans le téléfilm anglais Complicit, la production et l'acheminement de la ricine vers l'Angleterre est au centre de l'intrigue.

Dans le film The Interview, la ricine est censée être utilisée pour empoisonner le dirigeant de la Corée du Nord Kim-Jong Un, par le biais d'un contact durant une poignée de main.

Dans le film  The coldest game la ricine est utilisée pour empoisonner deux agents américains.

Dans la série télévisée Designated Survivor dans l'épisode 8 de la Saison 1

Dans la série télévisée Urgences dans l'épisode 2 de la saison 15.

Dans la série télévisée Les Experts : Manhattan dans l'épisode 21 de la saison 3.

Dans la série télévisée Les Experts : Las Vegas dans l'épisode 7 de la saison 2, une restauratrice de livres anciens, Veronica Bradley, est retrouvée morte intoxiquée à la ricine.

Dans la série télévisée Covert Affairs dans l'épisode 12 de la saison 3, Karina Vost, une femme espionnant pour le Mossad est assassinée par empoisonnement à la ricine.

Dans la série de Netflix House of Cards dans l'épisode 4 de la saison 2, où une poudre blanche suspecte fut introduite dans une lettre adressée au Capitole.

Dans la série télévisée Le Sang de la vigne dans l'épisode "Cauchemar en Côtes-de-Nuits"

Dans la série Bitten dans l'épisode "Prisonnier"

Dans la série Tyrant dans l'épisode 2 de la saison 1.

Dans la série The Good Fight, dans l'épisode 3 de la saison 2, Diane Lockart reçoit une lettre au cabinet, contenant de la ricine.

Dans la série télévisée Un si grand soleil pour tenter d'empoisonner le commissaire Clément Becker.

Dans la série Elementary saison 7 épisode 5.

Dans la série Balthazar, saison 4, épisode 1, pour éliminer un témoin à charge, en empoisonnant des menus végétariens dans un avion

Voir aussi

Articles connexes

 Toxique
 Toxicologie
 Écotoxicologie
 Antidote
 Abrine

Liens externes
  Site d'information sur l'huile de Ricinus communis
  La ricine (Ministère chargé de la santé)
  Guides d'investigation épidémiologique - Ricine (INVS)

Bibliographie

 Foxwell, B. M. J., Donovan, T. A., Thorpe, P. E. & Wilson, G. The removal of carbohydrates from ricin with endoglycosidases H, F and D and α-mannosidase. Biochim. Biophys. Acta 840, 193–203 (1985)

Notes

EC 3.2.2
Arme chimique
Phytotoxine
Lectine
Substance inscrite au tableau 1 de l'OIAC

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaWikipedia


The Cathedral City Historical Society hosts the master of desert Americana, Ron Backer, at a luncheon Thursday, November 5, 2015. Backer, a transplant from South Dakota, zones in on a neighborhood and soon unearths stories even the locals don't know; then he paints the tales so they are forever preserved. Art historian Marilyn Cooper will talk about Backer's narrative approach, as guests enjoy a lunch by Cathedral City's own Chef Hector. Come and meet Ron Backer and support the Cathedral City Historical Society.
Cathedral City Beginnings, Ron Backer. Tourists check for deals at George Allen's real estate office, early 1930s.
Salton Sea painter Andrew Dickson shows new images of the Sea at the Art Exchange in Long Beach through October 15. Other Places: An Exhibition of Landscapes also features artists Jon Puls and Yu Ji. A professor of drawing and painting at Cal State Fullerton, Andrew has a long kinship with the Salton Sea. He began visiting his grandparents' place in North Shore when he was only seven years old. A closing reception is set for October 15th, from 6-10 pm.
Utah State University may be the first to explore links between western abstraction and Australian aboriginal imagery. Their two current complementary exhibits showcase the University's collection of modernist art made in the American West, alongside Australian Papunya board artists. The intriguing cast of modernist painters includes Raymond Jonson (a friend of our own Agnes Pelton), Cady Wells (previously featured on CaliforniaDesertArt.com) and Henrietta Shore, a painter of California cactus who–like Pelton–has been compared to Georgia O'Keeffe.
The exhibits are on view through December 12th at the Nora Eccles Harrison Museum of Art. You don't have to go all the way to Utah to start exploring the featured artists and overlapping themes–abstraction and dreams and arid landscapes.
The new Carl Bray monument in Indian Wells will be dedicated at a ribbon-cutting November 5, 2015 at 8:30 am. Following the ribbon-cutting, the original and restored Carl Bray sign will be unveiled at Indian Wells City Hall Council Chambers. Carl's hand-painted palette sign–once torn down and tossed aside down by the City–will now permanently grace the Council Chambers foyer.
If you want to grab a vintage Carl Bray painting to mark the artist's symbolic return home, take a look at this collection in Sun City. The owner lived near the Salton Sea and visited Carl's studio frequently, gathering a collection of eight classic older paintings. If you're interested in purchasing the collection, contact celestelesuer@gmail.com.
The Desert Art Center paint-outs get started on October 10th this year with a trip to Oak Glen apple country. Leader Elaine Mathews has been guiding the excursions for years in an anti-leader, laid-back way. This is a chance to visit the best-looking places in the desert, with good company. The Desert Art Center celebrates it's 66th year this season, so you are joining in a long tradition of desert paint-outs.
The Borrego Art Institute features paintings made from pigments gathered in the desert, with brushes made from local coyote and fox fur. Artist Lauris Phillips collects fur from road-kill and other sources to craft her bamboo-handled brushes. "It is Anza-Borrego painted with Anza-Borrego," says the artist's website. The Desert Essence exhibit (October 10 through October 31) was inspired by Phillips' informal artist's residency in the park, and is just one highlight of the gallery's annual Flora and Fauna Show.
The opening is October 10, 5-8 pm, with an artist's talk October 31st at 2:30 pm.
thank you dear ann, lovely, thoughtful with fruitful information of things that matter, not found any place else. well done!
Love that picture of the date palms.


Do it because they said you couldn't.
Learn to work through pain and then push harder.
Ability is limitless. Be more do more.
Because today is another chance to get it right.
It's easier to stay in shape if you never let yourself get out of shape in the first place.


has a job and who doesn't; and who accumulates wealth and at whose expense.
working — to reclaim investment for the public good.
What are TNCs and their different forms?
How have they become powerful in recent years?
Why cross-border mergers and acquisitions are problematic?
How to assess the rise of private equity funds and Southern TNCs?
How the developing world has become the exporter of capital?
Who benefits from foreign investments? Who loses?
How TNCs indulge in transfer pricing?
The role of bilateral, regional and multilateral investment agreements.
The governance of international investments since 1940s.
The double standards of developed countries on foreign investments.
Are corporate codes of conduct the solution?
What lessons to be learnt from campaigns against TNCs?
What are key elements for building a campaign?
Is there a backlash against foreign investments?
3. Are International Investment Flows Beneficial?
7. Regulating Investments: Voluntary or Mandatory Approaches?
"Change will not come about through individuals acting alone but in concert.
increase the effectiveness of such collective action."
Achille's heel of the neoliberal globalization agenda."
"Taming Global Financial Flows" and "The Globalization of Finance".


text:
March - April 2017 Hospitalization rates, length of stay and in-hospital mortality in a cohort of HIV...
The Brazilian Journal of Infectious Diseases
The Brazilian Journal of Infectious Diseases is the official publication of the Brazilian Society of Infectious Diseases (SBI). It aims to publish relevant articles in the broadest sense on all aspects of microbiology, infectious diseases and immune response to infectious agents.
The BJID is a bimonthly publication and one of the most influential journals in its field in Brazil and Latin America with a high impact factor. Since its inception it has garnered a growing share of the publishing market.
CABI Publishing; Chemical Abstracts (CAS); China Education Publications Import and Export Corporation (CEPIEC); EBSCO Database (Premium Research); Elsevier Science - Bibliographic Databases Division; Embase/Excerpta Medica; Gale Cengage Learning; Index Copernicus International; ISI (Web of Science) - Science Citation Index Expanded (SCISEARCH); Journal Citation Reports (Science Edition); Kessler-Hancok Information Service; Latin America and Caribean Literature of Health Science (LILACS); LATINDEX; Medline/ Index Medicus/Pubmed; Qualis International (CAPES): B3 (International Quality); Redalyc (Network of Scientific Journals of Latin America, Caribbean, Spain and Portugal) SCIELO; SCIRUS (Elsevier); SCOPUS Index; Sociedad Iberoamericana de Información Cientifica (SIIC); Subis Database (SUBIS Bulletin); Swets Blackwell; Teldan Database Production; The US Library of Congress Office; Ulrich¿s Periodicals Directory.
Vol. 21. Issue 2.
Pages 190-195 (March - April 2017)
DOI: 10.1016/j.bjid.2016.10.007
Hospitalization rates, length of stay and in-hospital mortality in a cohort of HIV infected patients from Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Lara E. Coelho
lara.coelho@ini.fiocruz.br
, Sayonara R. Ribeiro, Valdilea G. Veloso, Beatriz Grinsztejn, Paula M. Luz
Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (FIOCRUZ), Instituto Nacional de Infectologia Evandro Chagas, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil
Table 1. Study population characteristics by study periods.
Table 2. Number of hospitalizations, hospitalization rates and length of stay, and in-hospital mortality, stratified by AIDS- and non-AIDS-related causes by year, 2007–2013, INI cohort.
In this study, we evaluated trends in hospitalization rates, length of stay and in-hospital mortality in a cohort of HIV-infected patients in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, from 2007 through 2013. Among the 3991 included patients, 1861 hospitalizations occurred (hospitalization rate of 10.44/100 person-years, 95% confidence interval 9.98–10.93/100 person-years). Hospitalization rates decreased annually (per year incidence rate ratio 0.92, 95% confidence interval 0.89–0.95) as well as length of stay (median of 15 days in 2007 vs. 11 days in 2013, p-value for trend<0.001), and in-hospital mortality (13.4% in 2007 to 8.1% in 2013, p-value for trend=0.053). Our results show that, in a middle-income setting, hospitalization rates are decreasing over time and non-AIDS hospitalizations are currently more frequent than those related to AIDS. Notwithstanding, compared with high-income settings, our patients had longer length of stay and higher in-hospital mortality. Further studies addressing these outcomes are needed to provide information that may guide protocols and interventions to further reduce health-care costs and in-hospital mortality.
In-hospital mortality
Combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) has led to a reduction in the rates of hospitalization among HIV-infected patients.1,2 Immunological improvement and gain in life expectancy achieved as a result of ART also modified causes of hospitalizations, and, in most recent years, non-AIDS events surpassed AIDS-related as the main cause of hospitalization in high income settings.2–4 Simultaneously, duration of hospitalizations (i.e. length of stay) and in-hospital mortality1,5 among HIV-infected patients decreased over time. Nevertheless, there is a need to assess hospitalizations, length of stay, and in-hospital mortality in late ART era since they provide updated information on morbidity and health care utilization among HIV-infected patients, which are essential to evaluate health care provision, guide health policies and project its associated costs. In this study, we sought to assess trends in hospitalization rates, length of stay, and in-hospital mortality in a cohort of HIV-infected patients from Rio de Janeiro, from 2007 through 2013.
Instituto Nacional de Infectologia Evandro Chagas (INI, formerly known as Instituto de Pesquisa Clínica Evandro Chagas/IPEC) is a reference center for research and care of HIV-infected patients, in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, since 1986. INI provides primary, specialty and tertiary care for HIV-infected patients and it includes an outpatient facility, an emergency department, a day-clinic, and an inpatient care unit (comprising an intensive care unit), all funded by the Brazilian National Health System. Patients followed at INI have free-of charge access to all available facilities. A longitudinal database maintains in-hospital and outpatient clinical information on patients receiving HIV care. Cohort procedures and results were published eslwhere.6,7
The present study included HIV-infected adults (≥18 years of age at cohort enrollment), enrolled in the INI cohort between 01 January 1986 and 01 December 2013, who were alive and in active care (at least one medical visit) after 01 January 2007. Follow-up started on 01 January 2007 or the date of cohort enrollment, whichever occurred last, and it ended on 31 December 2013, date of death, or last clinical visit (medical visit, CD4, HIV viral load or any blood exam) whichever occurred first. Lost to follow-up was defined as not having a clinical visit after 01 January 2013 for those known not to be deceased. Information regarding vital status was exhaustedly checked using the patients' medical charts and by linkage with the Rio de Janeiro mortality database (up to 31 December 2013) using a previously validated algorithm.8
The primary cause of a hospitalization was inferred from discharge reports. All diagnoses listed in the discharge report were classified using the 10th Edition of the International Classification of Disease (ICD-10), into 24 different categories.9 Since some ICD-10 codes could be allocated to several categories, we considered a hierarchical classification protocol with a decreasing order of priority as follows: AIDS-events, non-AIDS malignancies, infections, and then systemic events.9 To determine the primary cause of a hospitalization, one or more ICD-10 codes listed in the discharge reports were hierarchically classified as follows: AIDS-defining diseases, non-AIDS cancer, cardiovascular disease, bacterial infections, fungal infections, viral infections, parasitic infections, digestive diseases, renal diseases, respiratory diseases, neurologic diseases, endocrine diseases, hematological diseases, psychiatric diseases, viral hepatitis, non-viral hepatitis, dermatological diseases, rheumatologic diseases, trauma, gynecologic disease, toxicities, others, and sings and symptoms.
Socio-demographic and clinical features were compared among included patients by study period (2007–2009, 2010–2011, 2012–2013) using Kruskal–Wallis test for continuous variables and Chi-square for categorical variables. Annual hospitalization rates, defined as the number of hospitalizations divided by the person-years (PY) of follow-up, were calculated per 100 PY; Poisson regression models were used to estimate trends in hospitalization rates. Length of stay (LOS) was calculated by subtracting hospital admission date from date of discharge and adding 1; linear regression models were used to estimate trends in LOS. In-hospital mortality, defined as the number of hospitalizations that ended in death divided by the total number hospitalizations, were calculated; logistic regression models were used to estimate trends of in-hospital mortality.
A total of 3991 patients, enrolled from June 1986 until November 2013, were followed from 01 January 2007 until 31 December 2013, accounting for 17,822 PY of follow-up. One hundred and eighty nine patients (4.7%) were deemed loss to follow up, yielding a loss to follow up rate of rate of 1.06/100 PY. The study population aged slightly through the years and the proportion of patients with 60 years or more increased from 5.1% in 2007–2009 to 7.1% in 2012–2013 (p<0.001, Table 1). Likewise, the median CD4 counts (419cells/mm3 in 2007–2009 to 542cells/mm3 in 2012–2013, p<0.001), the proportion of patients on ART (80.9% in 2007–2009 vs. 90.8% in 2012–2013, p<0.001) and the proportion of patients with a HIV viral load under 400copies/mL (54% in 2007–2009 vs. 69.5% in 2012–2013, p<0.001) significantly increased through the years.
Study population characteristics by study periods.
(n=2639)
Sex 0.678
Male 1699 (64.4) 2020 (64.8) 2359 (65.4)
Female 940 (35.6) 1097 (35.2) 1246 (34.6)
Age in yearsa
Median (IQR) 41.7 (34.1, 48.6) 42 (34.2, 49.4) 42.5 (34.5, 50.5) 0.004
≤30 372 (14.1) 414 (13.3) 466 (12.9) <0.001
31–40 807 (30.6) 925 (29.7) 1051 (29.2)
41–50 885 (33.5) 1065 (34.2) 1124 (31.2)
51–60 440 (16.7) 525 (16.8) 709 (19.7)
>60 135 (5.1) 188 (6) 255 (7.1)
White 1454 (55.1) 1619 (51.9) 1807 (50.1) <0.001
Non White 1185 (44.9) 1498 (48.1) 1798 (49.9)
Educational level 0.075
Up to 9 years 1340 (50.8) 1555 (49.9) 1730 (48)
More than 9 years 1299 (49.2) 1562 (50.1) 1875 (52)
HIV exposure category 0.028
Heterosexual 1420 (53.8) 1636 (52.5) 1830 (50.8)
MSM 948 (35.9) 1146 (36.8) 1363 (37.8)
IDU 52 (2) 50 (1.6) 47 (1.3)
Other/unknown 219 (8.3) 285 (9.1) 365 (10.1)
Chronic hepatitis Bb 169 (6.4) 188 (6) 198 (5.5) 0.308
Chronic hepatitis Cc 278 (10.5) 301 (9.7) 309 (8.6) 0.03
CD4 count (cells/mm3)d
Median (IQR) 419 (254, 616) 532 (336, 772) 542 (358, 775) <0.001
>500 970 (36.8) 1664 (53.4) 1924 (53.4) <0.001
500–351 581 (22) 554 (17.8) 676 (18.8)
≤350 996 (37.7) 801 (25.7) 831 (23.1)
Missing 92 (3.5) 98 (3.1) 174 (4.8)
HIV viral load (copies/mL)d <0.001
≤400 1424 (54) 2050 (65.8) 2504 (69.5)
>400 1073 (40.7) 952 (30.5) 956 (26.5)
Missing 142 (5.4) 115 (3.7) 145 (4)
ART usee 2136 (80.9) 2687 (86.2) 3273 (90.8) <0.001
MSM, men who have sex with men; IDU, injectable drug use; ART, combination antiretroviral therapy.
Age at the end of each period.
Defined as having a positive HBsAg antigen.
Defined as having a positive anti-HCV serology.
The closest result to the midpoint of each period.
Defined as ART start before the end of each period.
During the study period, there were 1861 hospitalizations, yielding an overall hospitalization rate of 10.44/100 PY (95% confidence interval [CI] 9.98–10.93/100 PY). Hospitalization rates decreased annually (from 10.52/100 PY in 2007 to 7.28/100 PY in 2013, per year incidence rate ratio [IRR] 0.92, 95% CI 0.89–0.95) mainly due to a decrease of AIDS-related hospitalizations (from 5.17/100 PY in 2007 to 2.78/100 PY in 2013, per year IRR 0.88, 95% CI 0.84–0.92). Non-AIDS related hospitalization also decreased with a borderline significant trend (from 5.34/100 PY in 2007 to 4.49/100 PY in 2013, per year IRR 0.96, 95% CI 0.92–1.00; Table 2). Moreover, throughout the years the proportion of non-AIDS related hospitalizations gradually increased and accounted for the majority of the hospitalizations in the last three years of the study period. Bacterial infections (53.4%, n=507), cardiovascular diseases (18.6%, n=177), and viral infections (10.3%, n=98) represented the three most common causes on non-AIDS hospitalizations during the study.
Number of hospitalizations, hospitalization rates and length of stay, and in-hospital mortality, stratified by AIDS- and non-AIDS-related causes by year, 2007–2013, INI cohort.
Test for trend
Person-years
Hospitalizations, n (%)
All causes 187 284 290 274 320 271 235 1861
AIDS-relatede 92 (49.2) 152 (53.5) 157 (54.1) 148 (54.0) 144 (45.0) 128 (47.2) 90 (38.3) 911 (49) <0.001a
Non-AIDS related 95 (50.8) 132 (46.5) 133 (45.9) 126 (46.0) 176 (55.0) 143 (52.8) 145 (61.7) 950 (51) <0.001a
Hospitalizations, rate/100 PY (95% CI)
All causes 10.52 (9.11, 12.14) 13.80 (12. 29, 15.51) 12.42 (11.07, 13.93) 10.72 (9.52, 12.07) 11.33 (10.15, 12.64) 8.91 (7.91, 10.04) 7.28 (6.40, 8.27) 10.40 (9.98, 10.93) 0.92 (0.89–0.95)b
AIDS-relatede 5.17 (4.22, 6.35) 7.39 (6.30, 8.66) 6.72 (5.75, 7.86) 5.79 (4.93, 6.80) 5.10 (4.33, 6.00) 4.21 (3.54, 5.01) 2.78 (2.27, 3.43) 5.11 (4.79, 5.45) 0.88 (0.84–0.92)b
Non-AIDS related 5.34 (4.37, 6.53) 6.42 (5.41, 7.61) 5.69 (4.80, 6.75) 4.93 (4.14, 5.88) 6.23 (5.37, 7.22) 4.70 (3.99, 5.54) 4.49 (3.81, 5.28) 5.33 (5.00, 5.68) 0.96 (0.92–1.00)b
Length of stay, median (IQR)
All causes 15 (8, 25) 15 (8, 27) 14 (8, 26) 15 (7, 26) 12 (7, 21) 12 (6, 21) 11 (7, 20) 13 (7, 23) −1.00 (−1.54 to −0.47)c
AIDS-relatede 19 (12, 31.2) 19 (11, 30.2) 19 (11, 33) 21 (10, 36) 18 (11, 31) 15 (9, 26) 16 (9, 25) 18 (11, 31) −0.92 (−1.78 to −0.06)c
Non-AIDS related 11 (7, 22) 9 (6, 19) 10 (6, 16) 9 (5, 17) 8 (5, 14) 8 (5, 16) 8 (5, 16) 9 (6, 16) −0.65 (−1.26 to −0.04)c
In-hospital mortality, n (%)
All causes 25 (13.4) 24 (8.5) 30 (10.3) 25 (9.1) 19 (5.9) 30 (11.1) 19 (8.1) 172 (9.2) 0.92 (0.85–1.00)d
AIDS-relatede 11 (12) 13 (8.6) 22 (14) 19 (12.8) 9 (6.3) 21 (16.4) 11 (12.2) 106 (11.6) 1.00 (0.90–1.12)d
Non-AIDS related 14 (14.7) 11 (8.3) 8 (6.0) 6 (4.8) 10 (5.7) 9 (6.3) 8 (5.6) 66 (6.9) 0.84 (0.74–0.96)d
PY, person-years; 95% CI, 95% confidence interval; IQR, inter-quartile range.
p-Value estimated using Chi-squared test for trend in proportions.
Per calendar year increase, incidence rate ratio and 95% confidence interval estimated using Poisson regression.
Per calendar year increase, linear coefficient and 95% confidence interval estimated using linear regression.
Per calendar year increase, odds ratio and 95% confidence interval, estimated using logistic regression.
Defined as presenting any AIDS event (CDC, 1994) during hospitalization.
Following the trends of hospitalization rates, the overall LOS decreased significantly over the study period (median of 15 days in 2007 vs. 11 days in 2013, p-value for trend<0.001) as well as the LOS of non AIDS-related hospitalizations (median of 11 days in 2007 vs. 8 days in 2013, p-value for trend=0.038) and of AIDS-related hospitalizations (median of 19 days in 2007 vs. 16 days in 2013, p-value for trend=0.036). Overall, in-hospital mortality decreased during the study period (from 13.4% in 2007 to 8.1% in 2013, per calendar year increase odds ratio 0.92, 95% CI 0.85–1.00), as well as in-hospital mortality of non-AIDS related hospitalizations (from 14.7% in 2007 to 5.6% in 2013, per calendar year increase odds ratio 0.84, 95% CI 0.74–0.96). In-hospital mortality of AIDS related hospitalizations remained stable throughout the study period and, overall, it was 1.66 times higher than in-hospital mortality of non-AIDS related hospitalizations (11.6% vs. 7.0%, p<0.001; Table 2).
In this study, we have shown that among HIV-infected patients living in a middle-income setting in the late ART era, hospitalization rates have decreased through the years, mostly due to a decrease in the rate of AIDS related hospitalizations. Consequently, non-AIDS hospitalizations became more common than AIDS related in the last three years of the study period. Decreases in hospitalization rates in late ART era have been described for both high-4 and middle-income settings.10 This shift in hospitalizations causes (from AIDS related to non-AIDS related) follows the reduction in AIDS-defining diseases incidence11 and mortality12 already demonstrated in our cohort, highlighting an increased relevance of non-communicable events among HIV-infected patients. Changes in the study population characteristics through the study period have likely contributed to this scenario. Our results show that, over time, the cohort population aged, while CD4 counts, the proportion of virologic suppressed patients, and ART use among patients have increased.
LOS decreased throughout the study though it remained high mainly due to AIDS related hospitalizations. Overall, our estimated median LOS (13 days) surpasses the one reported for a US multicentric HIV study (median of 5 days)4 but is closer to that reported by a national Portuguese study (median 11 days).13 Additionally, similarly to other studies,4,14 we found that hospitalizations due to AIDS were associated with longer LOS (median of 9 vs. 18 days for non-AIDS and AIDS-related hospitalizations, respectively).
In-hospital mortality also decreased over the study period, although in-hospital mortality of AIDS-related hospitalizations remained quite stable through the years. In-hospital mortality was almost two times higher in AIDS-related hospitalizations than in non-AIDS-related hospitalizations. The overall 9.2% in-hospital mortality rate found in our study is higher than the 2.6% rate previously reported in a tertiary hospital in New York between 2004 and 2008,15 but is lower than the rate observed by Akinkuotu et al. in Malawi (24%).16
Disparities in hospitalization rates, LOS, and in-hospital mortality among the studies (particularly, when comparing high- vs. low- and middle-income settings) can be explained by several factors that range from hospital structure, hospital setting, type of health care system, as well as by the burden of diseases, in particular of AIDS-defining illnesses. In this context, tuberculosis burden might play a key role. In settings with high burden, tuberculosis is a leading cause of hospitalization among HIV-infected patients and is related to high in-hospital mortality (24.9% in a meta-analysis including 66 studies).17 In addition, tuberculosis is also associated with longer LOS both among the general and the HIV-infected population.18,19 In our study cohort, tuberculosis accounted for 43% of all AIDS related hospitalizations and yielded an in-hospital mortality of 10.9% (data not shown). Additionally, LOS of tuberculosis related hospitalization was significantly longer than non-tuberculosis hospitalizations (median of 18 days vs. 12 days, respectively, p<0.001, data not shown).
There are several limitations that need to be highlighted in the present study. First, our study casuistic is from a single cohort that has access to an outpatient as well as an infectious diseases hospital located in Rio de Janeiro, and our results may not reflect those for other HIV-infected populations in Brazil. Second, although patients have a free of charge access to Evandro Chagas hospital we cannot rule out the possibility of hospitalizations in other hospitals within the city, implying that our rates may have been somewhat underestimated. Finally, Evandro Chagas hospitalizations are restricted to non-surgical and non-obstetrics procedures, and therefore our rates do not represent the entire sort of events that can happen to an HIV-infected patient.
In summary, we demonstrated that, in a middle-income setting, hospitalizations rates are decreasing over time and that non-AIDS hospitalizations are currently more frequent than AIDS related ones. We also showed that in our setting we still struggle with long LOS and high in-hospital mortality. Studies addressing predictors of LOS and in-hospital mortality, mainly in low- and middle-income settings are needed and will be of utmost importance to guide health policies and assistance protocols in order to reduce health costs and in-hospital mortality.
BG and PML acknowledge funding from the National Council of Technological and Scientific Development (CNPq) and the Research Funding Agency of the State of Rio de Janeiro (FAPERJ). This work was supported in part by the NIH-funded Caribbean, Central and South America network for HIV epidemiology (CCASAnet), a member cohort of the International Epidemiologic Databases to Evaluate AIDS (leDEA) (U01AI069923).
A. Mocroft, A. d'Arminio Monforte, O. Kirk, et al.
Changes in hospital admissions across Europe: 1995–2003. Results from the EuroSIDA study.
HIV Med, 5 (2004), pp. 437-447
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-1293.2004.00250.x | Medline
K. Buchacz, R.K. Baker, A.C. Moorman, et al.
Rates of hospitalizations and associated diagnoses in a large multisite cohort of HIV patients in the United States, 1994–2005.
AIDS, 22 (2008), pp. 1345-1354
http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/QAD.0b013e328304b38b | Medline
N.F. Crum-Cianflone, G. Grandits, S. Echols, et al.
Trends and causes of hospitalizations among HIV-infected persons during the late HAART era: what is the impact of CD4 counts and HAART use?.
J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr, 54 (2010), pp. 248-257
S.A. Berry, J.A. Fleishman, R.D. Moore, K.A. Gebo.
Trends in reasons for hospitalization in a multisite United States cohort of persons living with HIV, 2001–2008.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/QAI.0b013e318246b862 | Medline
H.B. Krentz, S. Dean, M.J. Gill.
Longitudinal assessment (1995–2003) of hospitalizations of HIV-infected patients within a geographical population in Canada.
B. Grinsztejn, V.G. Veloso, R.K. Friedman, et al.
Early mortality and cause of deaths in patients using HAART in Brazil and the United States.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/QAD.0b013e32832ec494 | Medline
R.I. Moreira, P.M. Luz, C.J. Struchiner, et al.
Immune status at presentation for HIV clinical care in Rio de Janeiro and Baltimore.
J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr, 57 (2011), pp. S171-S178
http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/QAI.0b013e31821e9d59 | Medline
A.G. Pacheco, V. Saraceni, S.H. Tuboi, et al.
Validation of a hierarchical deterministic record-linkage algorithm using data from 2 different cohorts of human immunodeficiency virus-infected persons and mortality databases in Brazil.
Am J Epidemiol, 168 (2008), pp. 1326-1332
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwn249 | Medline
S.R. Ribeiro, P.M. Luz, D.P. Campos, et al.
Incidence and determinants of severe morbidity among HIV-infected patients from Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 2000–2010.
Antivir Ther, 19 (2014), pp. 387-397
http://dx.doi.org/10.3851/IMP2716 | Medline
J.A.C. Hontelez, F.C. Tanser, K.K. Naidu, D. Pillay, T. Bärnighausen.
The effect of antiretroviral treatment on health care utilization in rural South Africa: a population-based cohort study.
PLOS ONE, 11 (2016), pp. e0158015
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0158015 | Medline
L. Coelho, S.W. Cardoso, R.T. Amancio, et al.
Trends in AIDS-defining opportunistic illnesses incidence over 25 years in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
PLOS ONE, 9 (2014), pp. e98666
B. Grinsztejn, P.M. Luz, A.G. Pacheco, et al.
Changing mortality profile among HIV-infected patients in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: shifting from AIDS to non-AIDS related conditions in the HAART era.
E. Catumbela, A. Freitas, F. Lopes, et al.
HIV disease burden, cost, and length of stay in Portuguese hospitals from 2000 to 2010: a cross-sectional study.
BMC Health Serv Res, 15 (2015), pp. 144
http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12913-015-0801-8 | Medline
L.C. Long, M.P. Fox, C. Sauls, D. Evans, I. Sanne, S.B. Rosen.
The high cost of HIV-positive inpatient care at an urban hospital in Johannesburg, South Africa.
J.H. Kim, G. Psevdos, E. Gonzalez, S. Singh, M.C. Kilayko, V. Sharp.
All-cause mortality in hospitalized HIV-infected patients at an acute tertiary care hospital with a comprehensive outpatient HIV care program in New York City in the era of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART).
Infection, 41 (2013), pp. 545-551
A. Akinkuotu, E. Roemer, A. Richardson, et al.
In-hospital mortality rates and HIV: a medical ward review, Lilongwe, Malawi.
Int J STD AIDS, 22 (2011), pp. 465-470
http://dx.doi.org/10.1258/ijsa.2011.011021 | Medline
N. Ford, A. Matteelli, Z. Shubber, et al.
TB as a cause of hospitalization and in-hospital mortality among people living with HIV worldwide: a systematic review and meta-analysis.
J Int AIDS Soc, 19 (2016), pp. 20714
L. Holmquist, A. Russo, A. Elixhauser.
Tuberculosis Stays in U.S. Hospitals, 2006.
(2008),
HCUP Statistical Brief #60 Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality
M.J.F. Gonçalves, A.A. Ferreira.
Factors associated with length of hospital stay among HIV positive and HIV negative patients with tuberculosis in Brazil.
Copyright © 2016. Sociedade Brasileira de Infectologia
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Q: Android views from .xml to .java - dependencies I just worked a little on an application just to train. Fast I noticed .xml created views have an influence on performance so I decided to code them in the activties.
But I dont know how to set up all these params and dependcies, do I really need to create tons of params? This is how my .xml looks like:
    <RelativeLayout xmlns:android="http://schemas.android.com/apk/res/android"
  xmlns:tools="http://schemas.android.com/tools"
  android:layout_width="match_parent"
  android:layout_height="match_parent"
  android:paddingBottom="@dimen/activity_vertical_margin"
  android:paddingLeft="@dimen/activity_horizontal_margin"
  android:paddingRight="@dimen/activity_horizontal_margin"
  android:paddingTop="@dimen/activity_vertical_margin"
  android:background="#000000"
  tools:context=".MainActivity" >

    <ImageButton
        android:id="@+id/df_link"
        android:layout_width="wrap_content"
        android:layout_height="wrap_content"
        android:layout_alignParentBottom="true"
        android:layout_centerHorizontal="true"
        android:src="@drawable/df_link"
        android:onClick="openWebURL"
        android:contentDescription="@string/df_link" />

    <TextView
        android:id="@+id/header"
        android:layout_width="wrap_content"
        android:layout_height="wrap_content"
        android:layout_alignParentTop="true"
        android:layout_centerHorizontal="true"
        android:layout_marginTop="30dp"
        android:textColor="#FFFFFF"
        android:text="@string/header"
        android:textAppearance="?android:attr/textAppearanceLarge" />

    <LinearLayout
        android:id="@+id/mm_bottom_row"
        android:layout_width="wrap_content"
        android:layout_height="wrap_content"
        android:layout_centerHorizontal="true"
        android:layout_centerVertical="true"
        android:orientation="vertical" >

            <Button
                android:id="@+id/new_b"
                android:layout_width="fill_parent"
                android:layout_height="wrap_content"
                android:onClick="startNewGame"
                android:startColor="#000000"
                android:endColor="#000000"
                android:textColor="#FFFFFF"
                android:text="@string/new_b" />

            <Button
                android:id="@+id/load_b"
                android:layout_width="fill_parent"
                android:layout_height="wrap_content"
                android:textColor="#FFFFFF"
                android:startColor="#000000"
                android:endColor="#000000"
                android:enabled="false"
                android:text="@string/load_b" />

            <Button
                android:id="@+id/options_b"
                android:layout_width="fill_parent"
                android:layout_height="wrap_content"
                android:textColor="#FFFFFF"
                android:startColor="#000000"
                android:endColor="#000000"
                android:enabled="false"
                android:text="@string/options_b" />

            <Button
                android:id="@+id/dev_b"
                android:layout_width="fill_parent"
                android:layout_height="wrap_content"
                android:onClick="loadDevInfo"
                android:startColor="#000000"
                android:endColor="#000000"
                android:textColor="#FFFFFF"
                android:text="@string/dev_b" />

            <Button
                android:id="@+id/wiki_b"
                android:layout_width="fill_parent"
                android:layout_height="wrap_content"
                android:onClick="showWiki"
                android:startColor="#000000"
                android:endColor="#000000"
                android:textColor="#FFFFFF"
                android:text="@string/wiki_b" />
    </LinearLayout>

</RelativeLayout>

Thank you for helping me :)

A: Yes, you have to write a lot of code. That's why xml layouts are used instead.  This should help.

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


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Q: How can I post past action with the Open Graph API and hide the little clock icon? I just followed these instructions to make a little app that can post an activity to the facebook timeline in the past, but the little icon of the clock keeps showing up in the post and because of that the two dates are shown Little annoying clock
My doubt is, why the goodreads app used in the example hides the little clock icon and my app doesn't? I mean, there are certain requirements for my app to hide the icon, or should I add another parameter?

A: Unfortunately, you do not control how Facebook interprets your open graph action and displays it on Facebook. It is there for good.


In the historic district of Savannah you may come across a small narrow garden nestled between two large Victorian style buildings. This is one of the many gardens that help define the landmark of Georgia.
I've been there many times and I want to paint many other gardens. Perhaps I will one day.


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Nov 7, 2020, 09:54am EST |
This "Buy The Dip" Strategy Is Perfect For 7% Monthly Dividends
I write on high yield assets that deliver a reliable income stream.
Tech has taken a punch in the face this past few weeks—prompting many readers to wonder if it's time to sell after booking some big gains in the sector this year.
No way. We're dividend investors first and contrarians second, so we're going to take the other side of that bet and buy this tech "mini-dip." We'll do it with closed-end funds (CEFs) yielding 7% (and more) that also give us a unique "double discount" to hedge any downside we might see in the coming months (this is 2020, after all) and a good shot at outperforming tech and the broader market, too.
Let's start by tackling all the fear and worry out there. Yes, COVID-19 cases are rising in Europe and America, and that's led some places to bring back lockdowns, raising worries that growth will be stifled yet again, and stocks will fall accordingly.
But remember that we can't expect history to repeat itself exactly—markets never really do. To see what I mean, think back to the depths of the March 2020 crash: back then, most pundits were predicting it would take years for stocks to recoup their gains. Yet if we look at where stocks are now, we see that the S&P 500's total return is actually positive on the year!
This is a classic case of the "generals fighting the last war": the pundits were focused on the long climb out of the 2008/'09 crisis and dismissed the possibility of the quick crash and rally we've seen in 2020.
That's why, when you hear those same pundits say that tech is on its way to big losses now, you need to take it with a big grain of salt: financial history tends to rhyme, and markets learn from the mistakes of the past.
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And that's why the bigger fall in tech stocks, as seen with the 4.5% decline in the tech benchmark Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) in October, is particularly interesting. Large parts of tech were obvious big winners of the lockdown, as anyone who's used Zoom Video Communications (ZM) and Amazon.com (AMZN) for the first time in 2020 can attest to. Yet both stocks fell in October and underperformed the rest of the tech sector.
But I think you'll agree that a month is a pretty short time period over which to judge anything in the stock market. So let's "zoom" (sorry, I couldn't resist) out to a more meaningful time period.
As we can see, these stocks aren't entirely correcting. If they were, they would be down a lot more, if suddenly the market felt these companies will disappoint investors in the coming months. Simply put: a stock that's still up over 560% in a year doesn't drop 5% in a month because the market has changed its attitude on the name.
This kind of small dip in tech stocks indicates a broader trend divorced from fundamentals: a lot of people have been selling just about everything at about the same rate, which makes little sense, as any new lockdowns would affect different companies differently.
This "baby with the bathwater" reaction is the first hint that we've got a buying opportunity in front of us. The second is that it's out of step with the economic numbers we're seeing.
Stocks Down, Earnings Up
Turning to earnings, we see a clear and consistent picture take form. Spoiler: it's good news.
So far, we've seen the vast majority of companies outperform earnings expectations, some of them by a huge margin. In total, 86% of companies have reported above-expected earnings per share, which is a historical record.
The truth is, despite the virus and all the other uncertainty we're experiencing, we've seen many US companies swiftly adjust, and we've also seen expectations for companies fall too far too fast. With GDP growth swinging from 31.4% decline in the second quarter to a 33.1% gain in the third quarter, the American economy has quickly come closer to its pre-pandemic level—again defying those backward-looking pundits.
Tech Stocks Can Offer Less Risk in a Worrying Time
Still, if you want to be careful but you still want to invest in this market, where should you put your money?
The answer: tech. With tech stocks falling further than other sectors, and with tech still better positioned in case things take a turn for the worse again, it makes more sense than ever to jump into the sector. One way (but not the best way!) to do that is to simply buy QQQ.
But before you do that, you might want to know what's exactly in those three Q's. So let me show you.
Because QQQ tracks the NASDAQ 100 index, you can see that it holds household-name blue chips (and work-from-home beneficiaries) like Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT), as well as e-commerce giant Amazon.com (AMZN). Meantime, QQQ holdings Facebook (FB) and Google (GOOG, GOOGL) are more important than ever in helping us stay in touch with the world from the confines of home, while Paypal (PYPL) is, of course, an important tool in making online transactions happen.
And that's why the tech selloff makes no sense if it's based on fears of a coronavirus resurgence: these are the companies that won big after last March/April, and the market is giving us another opportunity to buy them for cheap—but this time, the window to buy is probably going to be a lot smaller.
Add an "X" to QQQ—and Get a 7% Dividend
QQQ is a solid bet right now. And to be honest, this is the fund that most people will gravitate to. But if you're like me, you want more of your return in dividends, so I'd be more inclined to look at something like the Nuveen NASDAQ 100 Dynamic Overwrite Fund (QQQX).
This CEF holds the same stocks as QQQX and yields 7% today, nearly 12 times more than QQQ's meager 0.6% payout! That big, stable income stream adds a measure of safety: you can use it to pay your bills or reinvest, either back in QQQX or elsewhere.
Michael Foster is the Lead Research Analyst for Contrarian Outlook. For more great income ideas, click here for our latest report "Indestructible Income: 5 Bargain Funds with Safe 8.8% Dividends."


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Q: prove the algorithm that uses min-heap to merge k sorted lists I'm reading CLRS and had some problem with the exercise 6.5-8.

Give an O(n lg k)-time algorithm to merge k sorted lists into one
  sorted list, where n is the total number of elements in all the inputs
  lists. (Hint: use a min0heap for k-way merging.)

The solution is, as everybody says,
1) build a k-element min-heap using the first element of the k lists,
2) extract-min() to get the smallest element from the heap and append it to the result list,
3) pick the next element from the same list as the one we just extracted from the heap. Insert it into the heap and goto 2).
I can understand the time is O(n lg k), but I don't get the correctness of the choice in step 3). It seems obvious but is there some formal proof?

A: The main thrust of the correctness proof is that the least element remaining is always the one to be extracted. The key invariant in support of this claim is that the priority queue contains, for each list, the least element remaining from that list. From this invariant, it follows that, since the least element remaining is also the least element remaining from its list, it is returned by extract-min.
We need to choose an element from the same list in part 3 to maintain the invariant that each list have its least element in the queue. Otherwise, we could have a situation like
1 2
3 4

where if we pull 1 from the initial queue containing 1 and 3 and replace it with 4, the next extraction will be 3, which is wrong.