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Probability Theory and You
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Author Topic: Probability Theory and You (Read 6112 times)
mightybrain
Quote from: Libramarian;1129857
Edit: I see where you made the mistake - the 30 x Strength rule applies to lifting things off the ground using your entire body, i.e. a deadlift, not a bench press. Men typically can deadlift twice as much as they bench press. Bjornsson recently deadlifted 1104lb.
If that were the metric, he would have a 37 strength in D&D terms.
I'm not sure on what world the average man can bench press 345lb, but it's not Earth! A typical man can't bench press 185lb without strength training.
D&D world is not like your local gym. For us, an average male weighs about 195 lbs and, untrained, lifts around 130 lbs according to this. In 5e D&D world that would give them an equivalent strength between 4 and 5.
Conversely, the average 5e D&D human with no athletics training (not that 5e grants any strength bonus for that anyway) has a strength between 11 and 12 and can lift around 345 lbs.
5e does a good job matching strength to expectations at the top end, but not so much in the middle or bottom. Which is why, I suggest, we don't have a good intuition for matching strength statistics to the world. We need to re-calibrate our understanding of what below average strength means in D&D world. Usually it means a lot stronger than you're imagining.
« Last Edit: May 13, 2020, 06:29:24 pm by mightybrain »
jhkim
I think the debate is getting caught up some in specifics of arm-wrestling and/or kobolds, when it's really a broad thing about what die rolls are like.
First of all, this isn't some airy theoretical issue. There exist systems other than D&D that people play which have different probability distributions. Low-variance systems aren't common, but they also aren't unknown. I'd rate Unisystem as medium-variance, for example, and CORPS and Amber Diceless as low-variance.
So if you haven't played those - what's a low-variance system like? It means that expert PCs can really shine in their fields - often with guaranteed success. Conversely, though, if a PC doesn't have appropriate ability, then they more often have a guaranteed failure. It's a matter of personal taste whether one likes this, but it's neither impossible nor bizarre how they work. Now, those systems have other foibles and issues, so I don't purely pick those. But if we're talking about coming up with a new mechanic for a new system, I think it's worth considering what degree of variance you want.
Quote from: jhkim
I would ask you to think for a bit and picture this in your head. One of the strongest men in the world - an Olympic weight-lifter or the equivalent - has to arm-wrestle a little runt with below-average strength. He loses the first match, and he says "Can we do 2 out of 3? That would be more fair." He then goes on to win.
Quote from: GeekyBugle;1129778
In your example it takes a very special kind of GM to call for a roll.
If the disparity is that high the winner is adjudicated without the need of a roll since it falls under the stuff so easy to do you don't ask for a roll, Like walking.
The variance in the mechanics used affects *all* rolls. I'm picking an extreme example for illustration, but the mechanics just as strongly affect how a skill 4 vs skill 5 contest works.
Higher variance in the die roll leads to more upsets with the lower-stat figure outperforming the higher-stat figure. Lower variance in the die roll means that there's less variation relative to skill.
Quote from: Jaeger;1129879
RPG systems are horrible 'reality' emulators.
Trying to do make an RPG model "how x is done in real life" is the worst design paradigm you can have for making an RPG system.
RPG's are Genre Emulators.
How I want my RPG system to model the Genre of play I want to see at the table, is the better design paradigm.
Different people want different things out of their RPG system. But even for genre emulation, it's not always clear what the best variance is.
For heroic genres, I feel that high variance often fits even worse than reality. Say we're trying for a heroic genre like Conan. In swords and sorcery, does it make more sense for a kobold to defeat Conan in a contest of Strength? For me, the answer is generally no. It doesn't fit the genre for a kobold to beat him in a contest of strength.
http://www.darkshire.net/jhkim/rpg/site/about.html
GeekyBugle
Quote from: jhkim;1129902
So don't use a single die, use 2d6, 3d6 systems, the bell curve means that in a well built system the looser will be the lower stat most of the time.
The 3d6 bell curve is better for this since it groups most around 9-12 which you give 0 +/-, making the stat the relevant factor, if the difference is greater than that one will get either 0 or +1, +2 and the other 0 or -1. -2. Making the stat more relevant than in d20 systems.
"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act."
― George Orwell
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCjC7-w5KDKNiD-k0tVo1DPw?view_as=subscriber
VisionStorm
Quote from: mightybrain;1129843
I think we might have unreasonable expectations in the differentiation of abilities as well as difficulty grasping the probabilities. For example, here is Devon Larratt, a world champion arm wrestler, bench pressing about 255 lbs. That's a D&D equivalent of between 8 and 9 in raw strength terms (using the strength × 30 rule.) And here is Thor Björnsson, one of the world's strongest men, bench pressing 540 lbs. Appropriately, this is the D&D equivalent of an 18 strength.
And here is Devon beating Thor in an arm wrestle; with ease.
Even a 7 strength isn't weak. It's just lower than average; in a world were the average man can bench press around 345 lbs.
In fairness a lot of that has to do with D&D 5e simplifying things to make it simple to calculate carry weight capacity for "it's a game" purposes rather than attempting to model reality 1/1. It's not that the average D&D human is intended to be literally that strong as a reflection of reality, even within the context of D&D world(s), but that the designers opted to keep the mechanics used to calculate carry capacity simple for playability purposes. I even heard someone once mention that the designers expressly said this was so, but I didn't read the source, so I don't remember where it was from.
That being said I agree with the starting sentence of your post and I believe that it's impossible to perfectly model reality 1/1. The best that we can hope for are "good enough" approximations for game rules purposes, focused on playability, with simulation as a secondary focus, to the degree that it can realistically be achieved.
However, I also believe that jhkin brings a valid point and interesting type of scenario where established task resolution mechanics (at least in D&D) seem to fail, or at least come up short. I'm not sure what the most elegant or adequate solution is, other than maybe doubling the Strength modifier in that specific type of STR vs STR tests. But that seems like kind of an ad hoc solution, if it doesn't really apply to other types of tests outside of STR vs STR. I think that most general skill related tasks still function without problems outside of this specific instance or maybe a few other outliers.
I've considered trying this as well, though, I'm stuck with my preference for fast single-die task resolutions. But 2d6 or 3d6 sound really tempting, since d6 is my favorite die type for rolling multiple dice, and 2 or 3 dice are relatively quick to add up (beyond 3 dice, I would rather go with Shadowrun style dice pools and count successes). I would probably go with 3d6 if I try this, since it's close enough to a d20 variable range that I could use modifiers intended for a system using a d20 (maybe reducing them by 1 or 2) and it could still work.
If you use 3d6 + 2 against random opponents rolling 3d6 with modifiers from -2 to +2 you'll win about 65% of contests
If you use d20 + 4 against random opponents rolling d20 with modifiers from -4 to +4 you'll win about 65% of contests
The only real difference is that you'll get more draws with 3d6. But neither begins to approach the 99% you'd get without randomness.
Quote from: VisionStorm;1129910
mightybrain is correct that linear vs bell-curve doesn't directly address this. The issue is *die roll variance* vs *stat range*. 3d6 has less variance than 1d20, but so does 1d10.
1d20 has standard deviation of 5.77
3d6 has standard deviation of 2.96
It's a question of the standard deviation of the roll versus the stat difference between master and weakling (i.e. Strength mod between Conan and a kobold, for example).
In terms of system design, you can get a less swingy system by any of (1) reducing the size of the die like using 1d10 instead of 1d20, (2) replacing the die with more smaller dice for a tighter bell curve, like 3d6 instead of 1d20; or (3) increasing the range of the stats. It's not like the only choices are 65% or 99%.
...this whole thing begs the question. Even in the part I didn't specifically address (last sentence in the quote, above) you're still making the claim that using essentially the same mechanic across the entire system is somehow "harder to keep straight" when dealing actions that are different (combat, spellcasting, skills, etc.), which is fundamentally absurd. How can using the same task resolution mechanic across the entire system--meaning that you only have to remember ONE thing--make it more difficult to remember how to resolve tasks?
No, I'm not making that claim. It's not about arbitrary categorization of mechanics based on chapters in the book or some other arbitrary scheme. It's about mechanics that look and feel alike, but are fundamentally different. Mechanics are the user interface of the game. They're the buttons we press, and the knobs we turn. When you have two knobs right next to each other, and both are labeled "d20", it creates a point of uncertainty. Sure, people will eventually memorize the positions, but that doesn't mean it's a good interface. It creates confusion when it's being learned, and makes it easier for even the skilled to make mistakes. That dissonance also slows things down, requiring users to devote a few extra slivers of time on an arbitrary mechanic every time it comes up, instead of responding automatically. While that can sometimes be deliberate -- cf. civil engineers and deliberately confusing intersections that force people to pay attention, and thus theoretically reduce accidents -- that's not good for a smooth flow of intuitive responses, it's frustrating or annoying, and in RPGs can do things like break immersion.
...which is an example that applies ONLY to D&D, and ONLY because it's badly implemented unified mechanics--we're still dealing with nearly identical mechanics. But because YOU personally can't remember what number to add in ONE circumstance in ONE specific game that uses a mishmash of subsystems rather than truly unify the whole thing that's somehow a testament against the entire enterprise of unified mechanics.
I've already addressed this. No, it's not about badly implemented unified mechanics. It's a flaw in the concept of unified mechanics. Because unless you have a very simplistic system that only needs one resolution method, like some single-focused storygames with a dramatic resolution technique that applies to everything, you'll end up using mechanics to model disparate things that function in different ways. We discussed some of these, for instance how different types of skill work, and how that compares to arm wrestling, and so on. So any reasonably complex RPG will, necessarily, end up with a heterogeneous mix of resolution methods. If you disguise those differences and make them all look alike because you're using the same dice and applying modifiers in superficially similar ways, that's equivalent to having two buttons labeled "d20" sitting next to each other.
This is all pretty basic stuff, which is why I recommended looking into usability theory.
And to nip this in the bud while we're at it...
I never "assumed" things that you never said.
Look at your own words, in the post you quoted. You quote me, and then use the second person "you". In that context, that's a direct reference to me, and thus you're making statements about me. You also ascribe motivations to other people in the paragraph about the originals designers, which reinforces the idea.
I can accept you didn't intend it that way, but that's how it came across.
« Last Edit: May 14, 2020, 08:38:31 pm by Pat »
That's a very complex question, because RPGs are a very different genre from books and film. In narrative media, there are plot structures and patterns, that are lacking in RPGs. Which is why RPGs sometimes default more back toward realism, or more properly verisimilitude; or conversely, go full storygame and structure resolution based on dramatic structures and plot flow rather than on some kind of static assessment of capability in a specific area. That's why referencing characters like Conan is so fraught.
nDervish
As jhkim pointed out, the modifier ranges you used are about a third less than the standard deviations of each roll (+/-2 vs. SD 2.96 for 3d6, +/-4 vs. SD 5.77 for 1d20), so it's no surprise that the results would be tilted in your favor, but still pretty random. If you want the results to go 99% "the right way", then you need to use larger modifiers, so that the results will be shaped primarily by the modifiers, rather than by the randomness of the roll.
If you use 3d6 + 20 against random opponents rolling 3d6 with modifiers from -2 to +2 you'll win about 100% of contests
If you use d20 + 20 against random opponents rolling d20 with modifiers from -4 to +4 you'll win about 100% of contests
Ah, the old 50 strength ploy. Even the mighty Tarrasque only has a +10!
With 3d6 that's 100% with no chance of failure. With d20 there's still a slim chance that a character with +2 or more can win such a contest.
« Last Edit: May 15, 2020, 06:29:51 am by mightybrain »
Cloyer Bulse
Quote from: VisionStorm
....But Wisdom in particular was always an issue even back in the day, when the question would be "what is the real functional and fundamental difference between Intelligence and Wisdom?"....
The distinction between intelligence and wisdom is very real and appropriately represented in AD&D.
Religion is the means by which a culture stores its accumulated wisdom, not empirically, but through mythical story-telling.
When people practice the religion of their culture, they are embodying their ancestors' ancient knowledge without necessarily understanding it empirically. This is represented in AD&D by the fact that magic-users must learn their spells, whereas clerics are simply given their spells.
High wisdom provides some resistance to mental attack forms involving will force. This makes sense because people who practice religion are more resistant to despair, anxiety, and other attacks against the mind. That is because our ancestors learned long ago how to withstand these mental assaults, otherwise we would not be here.
Naturally, people who are irreligious do not understand wisdom, and the more empirically minded they are, the more this is true.
Our culture has had what is in essence a spiritual stroke because it has become too empirical. The problem is that the world is too complex for the human brain to understand in strictly empirical terms. Holistic apprehension is more complete but less specific -- a picture is worth a 1,000 words.
People have latched onto the corona virus hysteria largely because it's something that they can understand in empirical terms; everyone knows what a virus is and how it works. The corona virus is a stand-in for aspects of reality that trouble our culture, but which most can no longer understand, in the same way that demons were once stand-ins for diseases which people did not understand.
The two hemispheres of the brain are hard-wired differently:
Left hemisphere: Operation in Explored Territory
positive affect
activation of behavior
linear thinking
detail recognition
detail generation
fine motor action
Right hemisphere: Operation in Unexplored Territory
inhibition of behavior
holistic thinking
pattern generation
gross motor action
There is an obvious correlation between the hemispheres and intelligence/wisdom.
I think that this is an outlier situation, though. I don't think that it necessarily applies to all types of actions that characters will perform. And this is also a D&D-specific issue dealing with Strength contests that might not apply to other systems.
Part of the issue is that Strength is essentially being used as a "Skill", but without having a skill (or Proficiency, whatever). So you don't get a Proficiency modifier for the roll, which is normally the only way to reach the upper limit in terms of ability roll modifiers in D&D 5e.
The issue is that this particular Strength function is essentially its own skill, but the game isn't accounting for that because there is no "Strength" proficiency (other than Strength saves). So you end up rolling low modifiers against each other, since it's just a plain ability check with no Proficiency. And since the system uses a die type with high variability that low modifier doesn't mean much. That's the reason why a kobold has such a high chance to beat Conan on a Strength check.
IMO, the best way to handle this in D&D is to double Strength modifiers for this type of check, specifically. That will give characters with higher scores the a significant edged without changing or complicating the game too much.
Another alternative could be to include a Strength proficiency, but then anyone could get it, which defeats its purpose. So the best alternative to truly give the contestant with the highest Strength a consistent edge is to double their Str modifiers for this type of rolls.
But this type of issue only happens when making plain ability score contests without Proficiencies. There's no need to adjust the entire task resolution mechanic to account just for this type of specialized scenario. I'm also not sure that Conan needs a 99% success rate in a Strength contest in the middle of combat, where lots of variables are in play. Specially when we consider that chimps are technically stronger than humans in real life, which means that just because a creature is small that doesn't mean that they're automatically weak.
Quote from: Pat;1130006
We're fundamentally misunderstanding each other so this discussion is useless.
TinyPortal 2.0.0 RC1 © 2005-2020


The other day, between dust, mosquitoes and the noise of the sander I was using to plane the wood of our new boat – wait, I'll tell you more about that later -, I thought about many things.
Maybe it sounds weird, but I don't remember the last time I had time for surfing through my thoughts. Probably sometimes we really need to let ourselves do some manual work – something purely mechanical, in order to become estranged from the world for a while, just to follow your flow of thoughts like moths toward the flame.Lately, I found myself do a lot of things that I have often struggled even to find the time to go to the bathroom, let alone to think. I could probably think in the bathroom, actually. But no, it was with the sander in my hands that I put order in my thoughts, checking off things done from my mental list, almost like do with the millions of post-it I lose everywhere.
Oh, yeah, you're probably wondering why I was planing the boat. Well, I was really missing some extra work where I could break some more of my nails!
In short, Francesco and I had this dream for a long time. I mean, it was not about breaking nails of course, but it was about exploring the Venetian lagoon on board of our own little boat.
After all, if you don't own a boat you're not a true Venetian, or so that's what my father who has piloted boats until he was fifty – the driver's license came just later -, always says.
Even my grandfather owned a boat, and so his father before him. Actually, there was a time in Venice where almost everyone had a boat, because fishing was one of the most ancient and widely spread activities for sustenance. Now things have changed and today owning a boat is pretty much a luxury because of the maintenance expenses that come with it.
In short, how many times do I say that the "power of the universe" in one way or another makes me always have what I'm asking for? Well, I asked for a boat and a boat I had. Literally, together with the parking space in a canal of the South Lagoon – which is the closest lagoon's area near home – and everything else. Piece per piece.
The boat was given to us by a man, too old to manage it… and that's how I found myself in the garden with a sander in my hand and wood splinters in my hair, doing my best to give a new life to that old greenish wood that reeks of seaweed.
Meanwhile summer has arrived with a bang, reminding me how much I hate this season. It's warm, but in front of the raku oven, it's even warmer. And lately it's always turned on. If I am not dirty with wooden dust, I am dirty with clay because #thefreakyraku production is to its all time high. Now there's an e-shop to feed! Have you seen it?! I am so proud of it, that I am almost forgetting the embarrassing amount of hours I spent in front of my computer – drinking iced coffee through a straw and eating raspberries from my garden – to build it.
I am also particularly excited for the new section of the website I called [Journal] and that I want to use like a kind of board for sharing the visual inspirations which are part of The Freaky Raku's world. White, soft light and bright pictures are going to be the protagonists of my Journal like a kind of antithesis of the pictures you usually find here.
Anyway, all these things – the boat's renovation, the ceramics and the new website, would be enough to fill anyone's day.. but no, not mine! Some other photographic projects came at me, among which one for Hugh Hamilton's wines, that I really loved doing even if the light in this period for sure isn't my favorite.
In this crazy whirlwind of work of which the end seemed so far away (and for some of them still is), the hot temperatures – that turn me enthusiastic about raw food – my kitchen went totally out of business, forgotten. The maximum time for keeping the stove on is two minutes, and that is, just to make coffee.
I was thinking that for one reason or another, lately, this blog has taken an unexpected direction into a travel kind of blog, – no wonder you may say… I'm always traveling! – and so I started to feel nostalgic for all those passionate moments I used to spend one-to-one with food.
Just when I was thinking these thoughts a wonderful invite has arrived from Olivia, the awesome girl behind the inspiring @adelasterfoodtextures feed, and with whom I started to feel a nice connection because of our common interests like collecting wild herbs and raku pottery. She asked me if I'd like to join her workshop with Krissy of Cottage Farm blog and Linda from Call Me Cupcake blog, in Gotland – Sweden.
"I am arriving" has been my first reaction, followed by "AAAAAAAAH" and then almost two weeks of inner conflict that can be summarized in "I'd like so much but don't know if I can".
Before deciding what to do I just waited a while, and precisely when the wood of the boat started to reveal again its wonderful grain, I felt all my psychophysics tiredness.
Sometimes it's exhausting not being able to say no. During the last year I said yes too many times, often forgetting what I really needed to do.
To give up on the opportunities I receive it's something that frightens me. It's like closing the door on a piece of world that's being offered to you.
Over the last year I fed my creativity by opening doors and doors, taking everything that came across my path as an opportunity.
My senses have been fed and filled up with so many stimuli that now I have the impression they're locked into a large bubble soap ready to burst as soon as it touches something… and I don't want to let it to burst because its fragility is part of its value.
I think sometimes it's important to have time to process things before jumping into other, and expecially when you're a creative, it is essential let the ideas have the right time to make themselves real in the form we appreciate most.
I chose not to go. I chose to give myself time to rediscover my own dimension, the one that makes me feel authentic, the one makes me explore things I have around me, the most intimate and lonely, which allows me to be magical, to play, to find pleasure in the modest things… into the lemons of the garden, into my forgotten kitchen, into the slow time of a summer evening, when the only one reasonable thing to do is shake off from your clothes the dust and say I did enough for today.
I have a tiramisu in the fridge that is waiting for me, after all.
*Pavesini Pavesini are light sweet biscuits which melt in the mouth. They have no added fat and so they are a great idea for anyone who wants a quick low calorie snack with only 8 calories in each biscuit. They are simply made with flour, sugar, fresh eggs and nothing else. If you cannot find them, substitute savoiardi.
NOTE: I use raw eggs, as it is necessary to make Tiramisu. If you do not feel safe using raw eggs, use pasteurized ones and make sure you know the source. If you still feel unsafe, just skip making tiramisu.
Start by separating egg yolks from the eggs withes. In a large bowl beat the yolks together with sugar by using a whisk (better if it's an electric one), till you get a frothy cream.
Wash and dry the lemon and grate its rind, then add it to the cream.
Drain off the ricotta cheese in a colander and add it to the cream, mix very well to avoid lumps.
In a separate large bowl beat the white eggs till they are snow-white and frothy.
Gently add the egg whites to yolk and ricotta cream and mix them together very gently using a spatula until combined, trying not to deflate the mixture.
Crush the chocolate into small pieces using a knife or the half moon and add it to the cream by keeping aside a small handful to garnish.
Pour oat milk into a bowl and sets out your glasses or cups on your kitchen countertop.
To assemble small glasses/cups: Dip quickly first cookie in oat milk until almost fully saturated but not falling apart and place it in the bottom of your glass. Spoon a generous tablespoon of cream over it. Repeat the procedure by alternating cookies and cream to fill the glass. Repeat with remaining glasses.
Garnish the top of every glass of tiramisu with chocolate chips.
Leave in the fridge for at least 2 hours before serving.
Congratulations on the boat! The ceramics website is looking gorgeous.
<3 So happy you like it, thank you!! I really can't wait to put the boat on water again!
I'm so happy that once again the universe bring you what you wish for ! Exploring Venetian lagoon in your very own boat must be a dreamy experience.
I totally share your opinion about summer, the light during that period is a constant source of trouble for me ! I'm more a fall or a winter person.
Oh my dear Amandine! When we'll finish all the work on the boat you're officially invited to come to explore the lagoon with us!
I know you can understand me, summer light is making me nervous. I am not able to find the right place in the house where I can work during the day, so I am just starting to shoot after 21 pm, or very early in the morning… but you know, I am not a morning person!! So, what the hell!!!!
Thank you so much for the invitation dear Zaira it would be amazing.
Just found your website, your photos and recipes are all wonderful. Just have to make this lemon ricotta dessert!


text:
From Syria to Gaza, Winter Storm Takes Its Toll
Thousands evacuated from Gaza homes; snow delays food aid for Syrian refugees.
Eli Ashkenazi
More than 4,000 people have been evacuated from flood-damaged homes in northern Gaza in what the United Nations has called "a disaster area," officials said on Saturday.
IDF Armored Vehicles Join Storm Relief Efforts
IDF Shoots Pal'n Near Gaza Fence
Al Jaz: No, Israel Didn't Open Dams to Flood Gaza
In Gaza, flooding has been so severe that access to many homes was by rowing boat and water is reported to be two meters (more than six feet) high in some places. Many people have been trapped inside inundated homes by rising waters.
The flooding is the result of four days of torrential rains.
"Large swathes of northern Gaza are a disaster area with water as far as the eye can see," the United Nations Relief Works Agency that administers refugee camps in the Palestinian territory, said in a statement.
The Gaza health ministry said 100 people had suffered injuries in the severe weather, which damaged poorly built homes in the coastal territory, including from car accidents on flooded roads, and items falling from inundated buildings.
Chris Gunness, an UNRWA spokesman, said areas near a refugee camp in northern Gaza "have become a massive lake with two-meter-high waters engulfing homes and stranding thousands."
Gaza's Hamas government said 4,306 in all had been evacuated to schools and other centers used as makeshift shelters in the past four days.
Gaza's 1.8 million people have also been enduring around 12-hour blackouts daily since the lone power plant was switched off last month due to a fuel shortage.
Israel opened a main crossing with Gaza on Friday to allow in fuel supplies and four water pumps to help relieve flood damage. Gaza's prime minister, Ismail Haniyeh, urged the Arab League on Saturday to take steps to end the blockades of his territory, a statement from his office said.
In the West Bank, some 60 percent of the households were cut off from power on Friday due to the storm, Ma'an news agency reported. A Palestinian electrical company official said that efforts to repair power lines were delayed due to blocked roads.
Due to the heavy snowfall, the Palestinian police asked the residents of Ramallah, Hebron and Nablus to stay home. On Friday it was reported that five were injured in car accidents near Jenin.
In northern Lebanon, temperature in some places in has dropped to four degrees Celsius below zero, causing damage to agricultural lands. The roads were covered in ice, cutting residents from supply routes.
Snow fell on northern and eastern regions where tens of thousands of Syrian refugees are staying, many of them in flimsy plastic tents.
The snow has heaped another layer of misery on the already grim existence of many of the more than 2 million Syrians who have fled the civil war raging in their homeland.
Syrian refugees struggled to keep tents in place and were seen gathering sticks of wood from nearby fields to use them for heating. Families crammed into damp, muddy tents struggled to keep warm. In some cases, Syrian children came out of their tents to play with the snow.
The Hezbollah television Al-Manar reported that most of the roads in south Lebanon were blocked due to heavy snowfall, adding that villagers from the area worked long hours on Friday to keep them open.
A government official said more than 15 tons of salt was spread on main roads in the country's south in attempt to keep them clear and prevent any ice from forming.
In Syria's contested northern city of Aleppo, soldiers and rebels took a break from fighting as a thick layer of snow blanketed deserted streets, cars and buildings and temperatures hovered around zero.
An anti-government activist said it has been quieter than it has been in more than a year, since the storm began late Tuesday.
"All the fighters are cold and hiding," the activist who uses the pseudonym Abu Raed said.
He said residents in the city were relying on diesel or wood heaters although some had only blankets. Snow also fell in Damascus, but was quickly washed away by the rain.
Al Jazeera reported that at least ten children died in Syria, ten of them in refugee camps near Aleppo and one in Homs.
The weather also delayed an airlift of urgently needed food aid from Erbil, Iraq, to Qamishli in northeast Syria for displaced families, according to United Nations food agency. As soon as the Qamishli airport opens, WFP will start airlifting over 400 tons of food on two aircraft with 12 return flights between Iraq and Syria, it said.
Rare snow also fell in Cairo's suburbs and the port city of Alexandria while a blanket of white covered St. Catherine's Monastery on Mount Sinai.
In Cairo, where local media said the last snow storm was recorded more than 100 years ago. But this did not discouraged supporters of ousted president Mohammed Morsi to hold demonstration in the capital on Friday afternoon.
Al Ahram reported that temperature in southern Sinai dropped to between 0-3 degrees Celsius. In Alexandria, emergency services used fishing boats to help evacuate people from their homes due to flooding.
A man walks past debris from damaged buildings covered with snow in the besieged area in Homs December 11, 2013.Credit: Reuters
Police distribute bread by boats to people whose houses were flooded, Gaza, December 14, 2013.Credit: Reuters
A blanket of snow covers the northern West Bank city of Nablus, on December 14, 2013.Credit: AFP
People walk along a street during snow fall in the Duma neighborhood of Damascus, December 13, 2013. Credit: Reuters
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Palestinians children play with snow in the West Bank city of Ramallah, Saturday, Dec. 14, 2013Credit: AP
A Palestinian worshiper prays outside the Dome of the Rock at the Al-Aqsa mosque compound in the Old City of Jerusalem following a snowstorm on December 13, 2013.Credit: AFP
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Actors' co-op Crescent Management adapted to weather Covid-hit performing arts industry
The performing arts industry has suffered immeasurably through Covid. As the word lockdown became an everyday term, work for actors vanished overnight. Yet in the midst of the global pandemic a…
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Lupine Adventure is a not-for-profit workers' co-op offering fell and mountain based outdoor recreation, education and training.
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Signalise is a sign language interpretating service that aims to revolutionise the way healthcare providers request, contract and deliver interpreting services for deaf people.
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Scotland's largest independent co-op, retailer Scotmid Co-operative, has been in business for over 160 years. With stores spread across Scotland, it gives its members a say in how the co-op supports…
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Building services co-op LEDA provides sustainable construction solutions – from new builds and refurbishments to plumbing, heating design, green energy installations and more.
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Glad Rags Thrift is a not-for-profit co-operative selling pre-loved clothing and provides employment opportunities in the community.
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First Milk is a farmer-owned dairy co-op that produces cheese and dairy ingredients and markets fresh milk through collaborative sourcing and supply chain management.
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Fully owned and run by its disabled workforce, Enabled Works is a social enterprise co-op specialising in contract packing, distribution and storage.
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Two financiers who bought and are attempting to make "Dumb and Dumber To" without Brad Krevoy and Steve Stabler are slammed as lacking the necessary experience to successfully develop films.
Brad Krevoy and Steve Stabler, producers of the original 1994 hit Dumb and Dumber, have filed counterclaims against the company that seeks to exclude them from a sequel that will once again star Jim Carrey and Jeff Daniels.
In reaction to production company Red Granite's attempt in a lawsuit to sideline them on Dumb and Dumber To, the two producers have harsh things to say about Red Granite's principals -- Riza Aziz (the son of Malaysian prime minster Tun Abdul Razak) and financier Joey McFarland -- and openly wonder whether the move to get rid of them will turn around to bite Red Granite.
According to the counterclaim obtained by The Hollywood Reporter, "The latest episode of misconduct has put in doubt whether McFarland and Shahriz Bin Abdul [Riza] Aziz will honor their commitments to any of the key talent working on the Sequel, and no one in Hollywood will trust McFarland and Shahriz Bin Abdul Aziz enough to take employment on their projects in the future because they will risk not getting their full compensation."
But it doesn't stop there. Krevoy and Stabler question whether Aziz and McFarland are really savvy enough to pull off a sequel to a film that grossed nearly $250 million worldwide.
"Red Granite will not succeed with money alone because McFarland's and Shahriz Bin Abdul Aziz's experience producing motion pictures during their short tenure in the industry consists of cavorting at nightclubs with Paris Hilton and making dinner reservations at posh nightclubs in New York and Los Angeles," say the latest legal papers.
The original Dumb and Dumber was distributed by New Line and Warner Bros. To make a sequel happen, Red Granite bought the rights and recently set the project up at Universal Pictures. In the counterclaims, Krevoy and Stabler say they were involved in CAA's efforts to aid Red Granite's purchase of the property. But whatever assistance they gave, Red Granite doesn't think the two producers deserve to work on or be compensated for Dumb and Dumber To, which sources say will be financed at close to $40 million.
Red Granite's lawsuit says that "no agreement of any kind exists between Red Granite, on the one hand, and either Krevoy or Stabler, on the other hand, in connection with 'Dumb and Dumber To,' nor has Krevoy or Stabìer furnished any pre-production, producing or any other services to Red Granite in connection with 'Dumb and Dumber To.'"
Krevoy and Stabler don't think that's accurate, pointing to their "substantial contribution" to the original film and their "initial development" of the sequel.
Even if there's doubt as to their active hand in making a follow-up to the Farrelly Brothers comedy, Krevoy and Stabler point to the contract they signed for the first film.
That deal entitled them to $600,000 in producer fees, a hard floor of 15 percent of net profits and a 25 percent royalty on video revenues. Just as important, the deal gave them a "right of first negotiation for sequels and remakes on terms at least as favorable as their terms for producing the Original," they say.
This, they add, is a standard clause in the entertainment industry which allows them to get paid "even if the studio decides to hire another producer for the sequel, so long as the producer is willing and able to produce the sequel."
Krevoy and Stabler say they are willing and able, and that even though New Line has no hand in the sequel, the original studio is said to be "100% supportive" of their position and once prepared a proposed budget that included their fees for a sequel.
Red Granite doesn't believe it owes anything to the two producers, but Krevoy and Stabler say the company can't shake up the contractual status quo simply because the situation isn't favorable. The two counter-claimants say that Red Granite tried doing the same thing to producer Alexandra Milchan on Martin Scorsese's The Wolf of Wall Street, a dispute that eventually resulted in Milchan being confirmed as an executive producer. The "pattern" of alleged misconduct on Red Granite's part is said to show that McFarland and Aziz "lack the experience necessary to successfully develop motion pictures themselves."
The latest counterclaim against Red Granite alleges interference with contractual relations, breach of contract and breach of the covenant of good faith and fair dealing. Represented by Bryan Freedman, Steven Formaker and Steven Stiglitz at Freedman & Taitelman, the two producers are demanding monetary damages for depriving them of a role on Dumb and Dumber To, for impoverishing their lost compensation, and for reducing their ability to garner awards and recognition on the sequel.


text:
Towards E-mail Prevalence in Media Repertoires: Evidence and Explanations for Knowledge Workers of a Public Organization
François de Corbière
François-Charles Wolff
Sophie Bretesché
Bénédicte Geffroy
E-mail is and remains widely used by knowledge workers in organizations. The objective of this paper is twofold. On the one hand, it aims at verifying e-mail is the most used medium by knowledge workers within their communication media repertoires. On the other hand, we try to understand which factors influence e-mail use. A public organization was selected to realize an in-depth case study with both quantitative and qualitative data. Quantitative analysis shows that e-mail is the preferred medium of knowledge workers to exchange documents and information. Moreover, individual characteristics poorly explain media use, and in particular e-mail use. Qualitative analysis of interviews with senior executives proposes organizational explanations of e-mail prevalence in this organization. Indeed in a moving, fuzzy and political organization, e-mail is preferred for several reasons that are advanced in this paper.
media repertoires e-mail use individual factors organizational context case study
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1.Ecole des Mines de Nantes, LEMNANantesFrance
2.IEMN-IAE, LEMNANantesFrance
de Corbière F., Wolff FC., Bretesché S., Geffroy B. (2012) Towards E-mail Prevalence in Media Repertoires: Evidence and Explanations for Knowledge Workers of a Public Organization. In: Rahman H., Mesquita A., Ramos I., Pernici B. (eds) Knowledge and Technologies in Innovative Information Systems. MCIS 2012. Lecture Notes in Business Information Processing, vol 129. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-33244-9_11


text:
Family of nurse involved in radio program prank discloses suicide note
Added by Erik West on December 12, 2012
Benedict Barboza, husband of the nurse involved in a radio station's prank call, exits the British House of Commons with his family after a meeting in which the family disclosed that the nurse left a suicide note.
The family of the nurse involved in a prank call by Australian radio hosts revealed she left a suicide note, yet they did not reveal the note's contents.
The family of the nurse, Jacintha Saldanha, disclosed the note's existence during a meeting at the British House of Commons with Labor MP Keith Vaz.
The family said they were not aware of the hoax in which Saldanha transferred a prank call made by radio hosts Mel Greig And Michael Christian of the 2Day FM Australian radio station – which lead to the disclosure of private information about Kate Middleton's condition. Middleton was being treated at London's King Edward VII hospital for morning sickness.
In an interview in Australian's Channel Nine program, Current Affairs, Michael Christian – one of the DJs that made the prank call – said, "I didn't think that anyone could have expected or foreseen what was going to happen. It was completely innocent – we thought we would be cut off at any point."
In the prank, radio hosts Mel Greig and Michael Christian called London's King Edward VII hospital on Friday. They pretended to be Queen Elizabeth II and Prince Charles using an accent the radio hosts referred to as "awful". Jacintha Saldanha answered the phone and transferred the call to the ward in which the Duchess of Cambridge was being treated, where they then received private information about Middleton's condition.
The prank call was aired soon after it ended and was posted via Twitter. The ratio station promoted the prank call until Saldanha death was announced by authorities.
In the Channel Nine interview radio host Mel Greig said, "The entertainment was in us – it was meant to be about the silly accents and getting hung-up on."
"There was no malice intended, we did not want to offend, and assumed the same phone call was made 100 times before then," added Christian.
Answering a question from Tracy Grimshaw, the Channel Nine interviewer, about their reaction when they heard about Saldanha's death a sobbing Greig said, "Theres not a minutes that goes by the we don't think about the family and what they've gone though. And the thought that we may have played a part in it…"
Mel Greig And Michael Christian – the DJs involved in a prank call leading to the death of the nurse involved in it – console each other in an interview with Australian Channel Nine's Tracy Grimshaw
The DJs have been suspended and the radio program has been canceled.
The radio station's owners said profits from advertising and other revenue would be donated to a fund setup for Saldanha's family – the owners estimate the donation will about to about US$500,000.
Authorities have not disclosed Saldanha's cause of death – an autopsy was scheduled for Tuesday and the results may be made available to the family by Thursday.
Some are questioning the legality of prank calls.
The New South Wales state Surveillance Devices Act prohibits the broadcast of recorded private conversations without participants' permission, with violations punishable by up to 5 years in prison and a fine of up to US$58,000.
The owners of the radio station said prank calls have been banned across all of their radio stations.


text:
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At this site, produced by the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI) Institute, you can find out about the ongoing search for intelligent life beyond the solar system. Don't miss the section "SETI Science." There, you can see the diagram that was coded into the famous 1974 Aricebo radio message, detectable anywhere in the galaxy. You can find out about the Drake equation, which provides an estimate of the number of technological civilizations in the universe. And you can learn how characteristics of Earth and the solar system lead the the assertion that Earth was somewhow optimized to support intelligent life.
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Q: How to determine statistical significance of mean being larger than zero? I have a set of numbers generated by an unknown to me random distribution. When I calculate the average of these numbers, I get a number that is larger than zero. I want to know how likely it is that the mean of the distribution is really larger than zero.
To answer this question I have designed the following non-parametric test:

*

*I calculate the mean value of the numbers that I have.

*From each number that I have in my set I subtract the mean. In that way I get a new set of numbers (whose mean is equal to zero per definition).

*I randomly choose a number from the new set as many times as there number in the original set. Each choice is independent. It means that the same number can be chosen several times or not chosen at all.

*I calculate the average of the set of randomly generated numbers.

*I do it many times and check how often the average is as large as the real one.

Here is an example, to make it more clear. Let us assume that my original set of numbers is
[1.1, 3.7, 2.2, 7.8, 9.4]

The mean of these numbers is 4.84. I subtract this mean from all my numbers and as a result I get:
[-3.74, -1.14, -2.64, 2.96, 4.56]

I sample 5 numbers from this new set. As a result I could get:
[4.56, 4.56, -2.64, -3.74, -1.14, 2.96]

I calculate the mean of these numbers (it is 0.76). Then I sample from the same normalised set of numbers ([-3.74, -1.14, -2.64, 2.96, 4.56]) and calculate its mean.
I do it many times and check how often these means are larger than the original mean.
So, now the question is if this test is meaningful or it has some logical flows.
Of course I my real case I have more values that 5 (around 5000). Also their average is not as larger as 4.84 (it is much closer to zero (around 0.004)).

A: I'd suggest using a well-established method over a homemade method. In your case, given that you don't know the underlying distribution, it seems that the Wilcoxon Signed Rank test would test the hypothesis you are considering.
Keep in mind this doesn't actually tell you about the mean, rather if your data is symmetric it tells you about the median and if your data is not symmetric it tells you whether the underlying generation process is the same. Read more here: http://rcompanion.org/handbook/F_02.html

A: The best option which does not assume something about the distribution would be bootstrap estimators (see page from wiki). It has a section also on how to estimate the sample mean. I favor bootstrapping rather than Wilcoxson because you have enough samples for the bootstrap estimator to be robust and because of the symmetry assumption from Wilcoxon test.

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Sergio Jimenez has qualified on pole position for the Jaguar I-Pace eTrophy round in Rome.
Who will win Jaguar I-Pace eTrophy race in Rome?
Caca Bueno takes his maiden victory in the Jaguar I-Pace eTrophy in Sanya.
Caca Bueno has taken pole position in Jaguar I-Pace eTrophy race in Sanya.
Co-founder of Jackie Chan DC Racing Team David Cheng is confirmed as Jaguar I-Pace eTrophy's guest driver for the fourth race of the 2018-19 season in Sanya.
Katherine Legge takes pole position for the Jaguar I-Pace eTrophy race in Mexico City.
TWR Teecheetah pay homage to 1988 24 hours of Le Mans race winning Jaguar XJR with retro livery for upcoming Jaguar I-PACE eTROPHY race.


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Advanced Endpoint Protection shares threat intelligence immediately across the enterprise network to prevent infection at other threat vectors. Signatures—via application whitelisting and malware blacklisting—are dynamically updated as Comodo's trust verdicts convert unknown files to known.
There are two virtualization methods available today, one at the OS and the other at the CPU. Comodo uses both methods where available as some chip sets don't support virtualization. Comodo's two layers of virtualization give our customers the best protection possible.
In some cases, virtualization is not supported by the CPU. This is why Comodo focuses on the operating system (OS) as the constant for virtualization. Our innovative approach—Secure Auto Containment™--takes advantage of both OS and CPU virtualization. This gives our customers continuous security at the OS layer with added security at the CPU layer when supported.
Comodo's Secure Auto-containment™ technology uses CPU-enforced OS virtualization with a single container (OS virtualization) model' that includes an exact copy of the endpoint machine including the kernel. This is one of the reasons startup performance is so fast in stark contrast to most sandboxes or containers that drain the CPU and slow down the system.
Comodo Secure Auto Containment technology is extremely lightweight, has no CPU dependencies and is completely application agnostic. Malware or any other unknown process entering this virtualization environment cannot modify the hard disk, registry, or COM interface; therefore, preventing infection.
In the Comodo virtualization environment' whenever a process or executable (PE) is run in containment (often referred to as "jailing")' the analysis system sits between the PE and the shadow resources it calls-including CPU' memory' registry' file system and more. If the PE turns out to be malicious code and attempts to exploit the machine' that action is jailed entirely within the container where it can affect only the shadow resources provided in the virtualization layers (OS and CPU) and not those of the native machine. This prevents the unknown file from infecting the endpoint when it executes.


text:
Joe Raedle/Getty Images News/Getty Images
Why Wasn't There An Alligator Sign At Disney? Lane Graves' Tragic Death Raises Questions
By Jenn Rose
Tragedy struck Walt Disney World's Magic Kingdom on Tuesday night when Lane Graves, a 2-year-old guest of the Grand Floridian Resort & Spa, was dragged into a manmade lagoon by an alligator and drowned while his parents watched helplessly. While the beach did feature signs noting that swimming was not permitted in the Seven Seas Lagoon, many are questioning why there were no alligator warning signs at Disney, which may have prevented this senseless loss. Disney has yet to respond to Romper's requests for comment regarding the signs and will update once we hear back.
Update: In a statement to Romper, Jacquee Wahler, Vice President of the Walt Disney World Resort, wrote, "All of our beaches are currently closed, and we are conducting a swift and thorough review of all of our processes and protocols. This includes the number, placement and wording of our signage and warnings."
According to the Daily Mail, the neighboring Hyatt Regency Grand Cypress hotel features clearly posted signs warning of alligators in the water, and has for at least three years. Signage at the Grand Floridian only prohibits swimming, and makes no mention of the predators. Orlando's WESH News did spot one sign elsewhere on Disney property stating "Do not feed or go near the alligators," but no such sign was posted at the lagoon when Graves was killed. Orange County Sheriff Jerry Demings has mentioned in press conferences that there are "no swimming" signs posted at the lagoon, but sheriff's office spokesperson Jeff Williamson said that "My understanding is that he was not swimming." Multiple witnesses report that Graves was wading by the water's edge, which is not expressly prohibited.
There are more than one million alligators in Florida, but a family from Nebraska, as the Graves are, couldn't be expected to know that. It's also understandable that even someone who knows about the prevalence of the deadly creatures in the state might assume that they're safe within the walls of a family resort. But poking around in a few Disney forums reveals that alligator sightings at the park are quite common in the water, on the beaches, and even on the rides. Executive director of the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission Nick Wiley said in a press conference that Disney employees "routinely take out alligators in the lakes and on the property at large," so they're clearly aware of the issue.
Further lulling guests into a false sense of safety is the fact that the lagoon doesn't look like a wildlife habitat; not only does it lack signage or fences, the area where Graves was attacked was a beach, complete with sand, umbrellas, and lounge chairs. The hotel was reportedly hosting a family movie night on the beach when the incident occurred. The Seven Seas Lagoon was constructed in 1971, and was originally designed for swimming and surfing, according to Florida's News 13. Use of an artificial wave machine was eventually discontinued after it caused erosion to the beaches, and swimming was prohibited once bacteria was discovered in the water. The lagoon is still used for boating, fishing, and even kayaking, even though it's known to be home to a number of predators. Disney has closed all beaches following Graves' death, and it's not currently known if or when they'll reopen, or under what circumstances.


Use daily to maintain healthy, clean ears, and to reduce the risk of irritation.
Vetericyn Plus Ear Care applicators and formulaline were created with all types of ear shapes in mind. Based on advanced hypochlorous technology, Vetericyn Plus Ear Rinse is formulated at an appropriate pH level, and will not burn or sting. This product can be used for flushing, cleansing and caring for wounds and irritations to the outer ear and ear canal. It is also great for cleaning ears affected by irritations caused by contaminants or pollutants. Ear maintenance made easy: Safe & non-toxic, No alcohol, steroids or antibiotics, Non-irritating & non-sensitizing, Safe if licked or ingested, and Works on all animal ears. For flushing, cleaning and caring for wounds and irritations to the outer ear and ear canal. Use to relieve ears affected by burning, stinging, itching, pollutants, contaminants and wound odors. Safe for use on all animal species.


While females make up only 31 percent of the tech consulting workforce, this year's job growth is inching toward a smaller gender gap. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 46 percent of new tech positions have been awarded to women for the start of 2013.
Also, IT consultants continue to dominate this recovery with another 17,200 jobs added in the first quarter.
Read about other tech employment trends in Dice's Tech Trends Q1 2013.


Grasim Industries is a flagship company of the Aditya Birla Group and is one of the largest diversified commodity companies in the country. It has a monopolistic status in the viscose staple fibre (VSF) and as a group it commands 21% global market sh... Moreare in VSF. Grasim's other business interests include cement, chemicals and textiles business. The company sells its products through a network of 50 exclusive showrooms, as well as through 200 wholesalers and 25,000 multi-brand outlets.


text:
Frostiana
Adults $25, Seniors $23
Students $15
Buy your tickets
Centennial Theatre Box Office
Bandeen Hall
See campus map (B2)
December 5 and December 6 at 8 pm
Bandeen Hall, Bishop's University
Jean-Philippe Dutil, Guest Choir Director
Fannie Gaudette, Artistic Director / accompanist
Melinda Enns – vocal coach
Under the theme of the seasonally-appropriate "Frostiana" in homage to the work of poet Robert Frost, the Singers will be offering a modern classical program featuring Randall Thompson's setting of "Frostiana", as well as "A Ceremony of Carols" by Benjamin Britten and a selection of carols by John Rutter.
The choir, under the direction of guest conductor Jean-Philippe Dutil, will be accompanied on piano by their Artistic Director, Bishop's University's Fannie Gaudette, for the first part of the concert. The second part will feature harpist Matt Dupont.
Tickets for the concert are currently on sale and can be purchased in advance:
by calling the Centennial Theatre Box Office at 819-822-9692 (Monday to Friday 8:30 am to 4 pm – service charges may apply)
by visiting the Centennial Theatre Box Office (Monday to Friday 12 pm to 4 pm)


We are learning about the life cycle of butterflies in class. Watch Ethan and Justing telling us about their carterpillars and how they turn into butterflies!
Estamos aprendiendo sobre el ciclo vital de las mariposas en clase.¡Mira el vídeo de Ethan y Justin contándonos cómo sus orugas se convierten en mariposas!


Is it bad that I had to go back to the page to remind myself of my targets? Yeah so as you can tell things are going really well…..To give you all fair warning, this is going to be a text-heavy, picture-sparse post containing a lot of rambling about life in general. If that's not your thing, I'm not at all offended if you move right along.
So this isn't happening, and it isn't going to. We had an offer accepted on a house, but it fell through. Long story short, it wasn't the right house or choice for us and if you peek ahead to no.30 on the list this may give you a clue as to why.
I'm wondering whether I should get rid of this completely and pick a new thing, seeing as I now don't plan on completing this before 30…. Thoughts?
Done! See posts here. This trip comes in at one of my top two trips of all time, tied with the time S and visited Australia, got engaged, drove a camper van up the coast of WA and an itty bitty hire car across the wilds of Tassie.
As soon as I'm home for a weekend, this is getting tried again. We don't speak about attempt one.
I'm absolutely terrified of this, therefore have only made small attempts to find an orchestra at about my level, which is middling-to-fair. But I really do want to do this, not least because I know it would have made my Dad really happy. Oh, and Ned is my cello in case you were wondering.
I'm in the process of planning this! Currently aiming to go to NYC in June to celebrate my actual 30th (so this occurs after I turn 30 but I'm bending the rules on this one) and then to Seattle in September for a cruise up to Alaska. I'm pretty darn excited.
See above re: doughnuts… Although I have had a passable first attempt. This picture is slightly misleading – this half of the eclair looks fine, but the other half (subtly cropped out of the picture) is all sunken and sad.
Seeing as numero uno isn't happening, I'm wondering whether to cross this off as well. As much as I'm absolutely dying to get a small fluffy thing, I'm just not home enough and it wouldn't be fair on the poor thing. Also our landlord says no, so there's that.
Done, and I couldn't be happier about it. PSA: in order to delete the account of a deceased person, Facebook requires a copy of their death certificate. That means Facebook will have on file exactly when, where, how and why you died. If you're not comfortable with a large corporation knowing that about you (or your friends/family having to submit that information), I'd encourage you to consider how much you really need that account.
Er no. Still not done. I'm not sure why I'm finding this so hard, but I like having a space that's just mine that I don't have to worry about who is reading and what they might think.
By which I mean the kind of friends you can call up and say hey, what are you doing this evening, I'm bored, fancy hanging out? And I think I'm getting there! I feel like these things can't be rushed, but I think there's a few people who I could do this with.
Ha nope. Maybe when life settles down a bit after Christmas and if I'm not on a project for a while.
Another big nope. I tried, but the NHS is being it's usual dysfunctional self and I appear to have fallen off a list somewhere.
I've read 21 books in 24 weeks, so I have some catching up to do but it's not unobtainable. I'm really enjoying this challenge, and discovering a great book reading community via Steph and Jana's link up.
I already have everyone in my family who can donate blood all signed up, so maybe I can put this one over to you dear reader? To save you the sob story; donated blood saved my life but unfortunately, having had a transfusion or two I'm now unable to donate myself. So if you are able, please would you consider donating blood?
I've tried an insta challenge or two and I always crash out around day 13. I'm going to do this one day, I swear!
No and I'd completely forgotten this was on here. What a great idea. I might just do this!
Nope! But I think it would be a fantastic place to visit over the Christmas hols.
Big fat no. Quite literally. I could make excuses about being away a lot but I think that would be fairly transparent. I need to focus on this.
I haven't done this, and have some significant work to do on convincing S this is a good idea. He is currently sceptical, to put it mildly.
No; again I'm not around very much during the week which is when these things tend to occur. I'll look again in the new year though, just in case.
Oh man. No. This will be an activity for the Christmas holidays I reckon.
Basically yes, although the competent part is debatable.
Yes! Then and now here and here.
Yes! To be honest it was kind of a weird experience. I'm not sure I loved it.
No, but I've found the list from my local college and am now trying to fit one around my travels etc.
30. Finally, the biggie. Figure out whether to go and live in Australia or not. And then do it.
I'm making inroads with this one, you guys. It's pretty huge.
So all in all I've done 7 out of 30. Or 8, if you go and donate blood….! There are two that I reckon I'll just cross off, and 3 in progress. That's pretty bad, isn't it?
Looks like I've got my work cut out for the next 6 months.
Have you done a X before X challenge? How did you find it?
You had quite a list to complete before you turned 30, and it seems like you made an effort with some of them! Maybe you could count a blogger book club as your book club that you join? And I love Jana and Steph's monthly reading linkup too! I feel like I come away with hundreds of books that I want to read!
I know! I did only write it 6 months ago so I feel I set the bar quite high. A blogger book club is an awesome idea, do you belong to one? That linkup always overwhelms me a little because there are so many good recommendations, and so many posts that it takes me ages to go through them all. It's a good problem to have though!
Kristen over at See You In A Porridge is a part of the Literary Ladies Book Club and they have a book once a month that they read and sometimes they do reading challenges. They're on a hiatus this month, but you should check it out in December!
What an amazing list you have! I think living in Australia would be wonderful!
That's what I think too! We shall see though, no point going if we don't have anything to do once we get there.
woah. tell me more about #30 😉 that is something i push to the back of my head and ignore. its a possibility, but it's big and scary and i don't know.
Ha! Sounds like we have a conversation to have about that #30 then! It's something S & I have been thinking about for a while but we only want to do it if it's right and it will work out. It's a huge decision so we don't want to make any rash decisions. There comes a point where it just turns into procrastination though!
I like your couch justification, I'm exactly the same! It's sort of for that reason that we didn't buy the house, either. If we'd bought the house I wouldn't be in Australia right now so I'm really quite glad about that!
it definitely is. we've talked about it, but it's such a huge decision, not to mention crazy expensive, and we have 3 cats. it would be cheaper to leave the cats behind, but we won't do that. it's such a terrifying decision, especially if it's the wrong one, and then we are stuck, you know?
Wow living here in Australia would be great! And it's understandable that some other things on your list wouldn't get done until you make the big decision about that!
So we spoke about this when we met, but yes please could I have the details of your visa people that you know? I feel like progress has been slow but I've got some fairly big stuff on there so…. I shall persevere!
Hey – Go easy on yourself 30 things before 30 is kinda challenging.
I like to make the excuse that a certain item about getting a new job resulted in me not finishing the list, however I do plan to try still do those items without a set time limit.
A bit of advice, don't change the list! There is a reason why it is on the list in the first place and you never know what can happen in the next 6 months. Don't think that it won't or can't happen.
For me doing the 30B430 was a very selfish year where I made some big serious life choices and which came with the best result, being truly 100% happy and content with who I am at the age of 30. Also looking back I realised I celebrate my 30th over a full 12 months instead of 1 day. It was magical!
21/30 is great going! Seeing as I'm at all of 7, that sounds super impressive to me. Like you, I think I will keep on trying to achieve the things on my list even past my 30th. Some things like going to the US will occur after my 30th birthday anyway, so I may do the same thing as you and take the year. I think that sounds like a great idea!
I have a feeling that 30 will involve some big decisions and sea changes for me too, but I'm ready. Time waits for no man! Bring it on.


text:
Q: Why does this Regex only match at the start of the line in Python? In Python I can do
import re
re.match("m", "mark")

and I get the expected result:
<_sre.SRE_Match object; span=(0, 1), match='m'>

But it only works if the pattern is at the start of the string:
re.match("m", "amark")

gives None.  There is noting about that pattern which requires it to be at the start of the string - no ^ or similar.  Indeed it works as expected on regex101.
Does Python have some special behaviour - and how do I disable it please?

A: From the docs on re.match:

If zero or more characters at the beginning of string match the regular expression pattern, return a corresponding match object.

Use re.search to search the entire string.
The docs even grant this issue its own chapter, outlining the differences between the two: search() vs. match()

A: import re
re.match("[^m]*m", "mark")

match matches from beginning of string.So you need to give it a way to match the start of string if m is not at start of string.


text:
Palm Desert takes lopsided defeat of La Quinta 19-2
In most high school sports around the valley, a Palm Desert-La Quinta match-up breeds plenty of interest, not only because of the schools' intense rivalry, but because the Aztecs and Blackhawks have arguably two of the strongest and most competitive athletic programs across all sports - both boys and girls.
But Monday night's girls' water polo battle between the two schools proved - emphatically so - that the Blackhawks will be fighting for second-place, along with the rest of the Desert Valley League.
Yes, the Aztecs are still that good.
So good, in fact, that some parents in the La Quinta contingent whispered to each other midway through the 19-2 domination of the Blackhawks' in their own pool, "Are they that good, or are we that bad?"
But the seamless goal-scoring from Elise Stein and Sarah Nichols, combined with the aggressive attack in goal from Savannah Clyde would make most teams in southern California look befuddled.
Palm Desert returned all but one player from last year's squad that fell in the CIF Southern Section finals to Los Altos 8-7. Redeeming that loss with a bigger piece of hardware than they left Irvine with a year ago is what this season is all about.
"If we're going into a game that might be a little bit easier, we still try to focus on the bigger goal, which is CIF," Stein said. "We still want to work hard when we're out there in an easier game because we know it'll help us down the road."
Stein led her squad with seven goals, followed closely by Nichols with six, while Clyde blocked 13 shots in goal and saved several more potential goals by leaving the goalie box to snatch the ball away - epitomizing the team-wide aggression that led to Monday's lopsided victory.
The Aztecs started off a bit slowly in the first period, with Shanna Heller missing the team's first shot and Nichols missing the following possession from point-blank range and Stein missing her mark the next time down the pool. Cassie Biga finally got her team on the board off a steal from Stein, who finally connected on two goals of her own before the period ended to put the Aztecs out in front 3-0.
But Palm Desert wasted little time in the second period, snatching away any hopes of a La Quinta upset with six goals - including three-straight from Nichols after Stein found the back of the net twice in-a-row. They would finish to combine for 10 of the team's 12 goals in the second and third periods alone.
Megan Sawyer (two goals), Alissa Clyde (one), Andrea Uribe (one) and Samantha Stein (one) also found the back of the net for the Aztecs on Monday.
La Quinta's Brooke Smith would finally break shutout with a goal in each of the third and fourth periods, but by then, Palm Desert coach Michelle Valovic was pulling four of her starters for a chunk of the final period, the game well out of reach.
But Valovic said after that she didn't feel the score was indicative of the skill level of La Quinta, who she said she expects to be the second-best team in the DVL.
Instead, Monday's score is the result of a team feeding off each others' greatness.
"They're competing against each other all the time...They're killing themselves to keep up with the player who's just a little ahead of them, and they give each other great competition," she said. "(On the boys' team) we had Ryan Sawyer (the DVL MVP) and we struggled to challenge him, but I have enough girls who can challenge each other."


text:
Villafranca del Cid/Vilafranca är en kommun i Spanien.   Den ligger i provinsen Província de Castelló och regionen Valencia, i den östra delen av landet,  km öster om huvudstaden Madrid. Antalet invånare är . Arean är  kvadratkilometer. Villafranca del Cid/Vilafranca gränsar till Ares del Maestre, Benasal, Castellfort, Portell de Morella och Vistabella del Maestrazgo.

Terrängen i Villafranca del Cid/Vilafranca är kuperad.

Ett kallt stäppklimat råder i trakten. Årsmedeltemperaturen i trakten är  °C. Den varmaste månaden är juli, då medeltemperaturen är  °C, och den kallaste är februari, med  °C. Genomsnittlig årsnederbörd är  millimeter. Den regnigaste månaden är november, med i genomsnitt  mm nederbörd, och den torraste är juli, med  mm nederbörd.

Kommentarer

Källor

Externa länkar

Indelningar i regionen Valencia
Kontrollbehov inkommande wikilänkar

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaWikipedia


Happy mothers day my amazing friends. In few days time is mother's day in Holland. Yuppie!!!
Thank you all for being my friends, my brothers, my sisters, my carer and my mentor. Mummy, I miss you so much. I love you mum, your grandchildren love you. We wish we could visit you as much as we can in Nigeria, but due to the distance, it's quite challenging. I miss your delicious meal. You are the best coolest mum ever, am sure most you readers think the same way / regard your mother as the best cook.
My aim of writing this blog post is to inspire you on a gift idea for your loving mother on mothers day. You may send your mummy flowers, card, a nice perfume, a wrist watch, a cool ticket to the wellness, manicure, pedicure, a nice Porsche car.❤✌ Greetz in the Netherlands sells awesome gift items. Please make sure you take care of your mummy, always make your mummy happy, smile and not sad. Mothers are awesome, without mothers, well, reproduction of human would not be possible!


Perhaps taking cues from The Met's massively influential Costume Institute, more fine art museums in the U.S. are embracing fashion and I've been wondering if the High in Atlanta -- where there is a very strong decorative arts and design collection but no curatorial department specifically for textiles and costume -- might organize something fashion adjacent. Happily, the answer is yes.
Kicking off 2013 will be Gogo: Nature Transformed, opening January 19 and continuing through June 23. Cumberland Island-based designer Janet Ferguson, aka Gogo, has long worked with shells, bones, and cast silver and gold, creating housewares, jewelry, and accessories influenced by her wild surroundings. When I look at her metal shell serving spoons and seed pod belt buckles, I see connections with both the High's old silver and modern pieces.
For next year's retrospective exhibition (her first museum show, BTW), Ferguson will create specifically for the High a sea urchin-inspired ottoman and a six by eight foot seaweed-inspired wall sculpture. Fans will also notice Gogo's earlier natural bone designs: In all, 63 works accompanied by a catalogue with a foreword from Mikhail Baryshnikov and an interview by High curator Sarah Schleuning.
Related past post: Summering at the End of Empire.
I met Gogo this fall at a show in Baltimore. She explained each of her pieces to me and told me what all of the bones were. Her work is gorgeous!
I'm so anxious to see what the High does up in the gallery, to evoke that Cumberland feeling.
Love, love that seaweed cuff!


Functional fitness and functional exercise are the new 'thing' in fitness, or as I saw recently, the new 'buzzwords'. That made me smile because once you know what it means, the question to worry about is, "why do all exercises not make us 'functionally fit?" Well that depends what you want to be fit for.
Let's take someone like a daily gym-goer who does "back & chest" or "legs" etc. These type of workouts do make them stronger and able to function where strength is required more effectively. It is great to be gym fit but that is not specific to building a body capable of doing most real-life activities in real-life positions. Could they run to catch a bus for instance? There are elements missing and if overlooked altogether can result in an imbalance within the body.
Similarly a specialist sportsman like my brother who recently completed an Iron Man event, became an Iron Man and earned the respect of everyone who knows him, especially me. The need to run, cycle and swim for many hours to prepare for such an extreme event can often leave no time for the most important 'functional' fitness to be developed – flexibility, core strength and balance which are essential for every sport and every day.
Fortunately my brother came to stay, he is now functionally fit!
They train your muscles to work together and prepare them for daily tasks by simulating common movements you might do at home, at work or in sports.
The majority of us simply want to be fitter and to be able to manage all the physical stuff that we need to do, with ease!
Being able to endure an elevated heart rate, getting down to the ground and getting back up again and sleeping well are abilities we take for granted until we lose them!
With age our bodies naturally experience a decrease in muscle mass, bone mass, flexibility, and even balance. The role of exercise then becomes vitally important.
The most beneficial workouts should contain at least two or three of the following elements — strength, balance, endurance, agility and coordination.
This would then be described as a well-rounded functional fitness routine.
Although it would be easy to now list a number of exercises that can be performed at home and would tick the boxes for functional fitness, no one routine is suitable for everybody. Quality over quantity, is a mantra that I love but what quantity should you aim for? And the quality you achieve will depend on a number of different factors. Some can be improved, others will require adaptations possibly only in the short-term.
If you are interested in learning more about what sort of workout would suit you as an individual then please do get in touch.


Immaculate and spacious home on hard to find huge lot in town. Large master bedroom with walk-in closet and half bath. Interior paint, flooring and appliances in the past 6 years. Roofing and hot water heater were replaced within the past 10 years. Underground sprinklers, partially fenced yard and dog door is in place. Tons of extra space for Camper and other toys. Large detached garage and a shed for more storage space.


report. Details are provided within the report.
Forecast by Revenue06.2 Five Forces Analysis07.
Buying Criteria11. Market Growth Drivers12.
Business Segmentation18.6.3 SWOT Analysis 19.
The PowerPoint PPT presentation: "Global System-on-Chip (SoC) Market - Size, Share,Trends, Analysis, Research and Report, 2014-2018" is the property of its rightful owner.


Click on more to read our scientific publications, presentations and newsletters.
Since the beginning of the TAPAS project, the team has remained busy. Click on more to see videos.
Click on more to see pictures about us. Please refer to the TAPAS project in case of using our photos.


Every business is unique. How it runs reflects on the company culture. Our developers take your culture, business needs, and budget into considerations when developing software for your business.
From website design to SQL databases to PBX phone server programming, we offer many custom development services designed specifically for your business. Our list of development platforms is ever expanding. Call us today to find out what we can create for your business.


Delicious Peach Butter for a taste of summer anytime!
Cook in large pot on medium heat until soft.
Use immersion blender to smooth to consistency of applesauce.
Cook down until thickened. (it may take ½ hour to an hour) stirring frequently. I set my timer for every 10 minutes.
Or try using your crock pot overnight.
I can man in glass jars. I ended up with 4 pint jars once it was all cooked down.


text:
by Evan Minsker
Tom Scharpling Accuses Google of Stealing "Best Show" Song for Chromebook Ad
"STEAL FROM SOMEONE WHO GETS PAID, YOU RATS"
Photo by Rob Hatch-Miller
Last night, "The Best Show" host Tom Scharpling tweeted a link to a new Google Chromebook commercial (seen below). He pointed out the similarities between the commercial's music and a song he wrote and repeatedly performed on "The Best Show" called "Come on Y'All It's Time to Have Fun".
Scharpling called Google "the bad guys," saying they "lift[ed]" the running gag for their ad. "STEAL FROM SOMEONE WHO GETS PAID, YOU RATS," he wrote.
Reached for comment, Scharpling sent the following statement to Pitchfork:
When I hear elements of The Best Show in other comedy I'm usually flattered, because there are certainly elements of other comedy and comedians in The Best Show. But this is not a matter of influence or parallel thinking. This is a case of straight up thievery.
Google is a terrible company whose crimes against humanity are legion. And shamelessly ripping off content from a radio show that I have written and performed for free over the last fifteen years is merely their latest shameful act.
I will be pursuing this matter to the fullest extent of the law. Future updates and new episodes of The Best Show will be posted at www.TheBestShow.net.
The good guys will win in the end!
We've reached out to Google for comment.
Here are some more of his accusatory tweets:
https://twitter.com/scharpling/status/667181189640404992
He also retweeted this audio clip from 2013:
https://twitter.com/jakefogelnest/status/667189194482061313
Scharpling & Wurster
Scharpling and Wurster
Tom Scharpling


text:
layout: post
title: Про dotfiles
tags: [blog, software, console, configuration]
slug: dotfiles
date: 2020-09-13T09:00:00+03:00
---

В мире есть два типа людей: те, которые пользуются настройками по умолчанию и те, кто всё настраивают под себя.
Первый подход имеет под собой мысль о том, что не важно на каком компьютере ты окажешься - всё для тебя будет привычно, но при этом запоминать всю фантазию авторов приложений.
С другой стороны, можно организовать окружение так, чтобы максимально быстро сделать его привычным.

Можете начать с того, чтобы пойти в [поиск](https://github.com/search?q=dotfiles) на github и посмотреть сколько вообще есть таких репозиториев. Стоит на них посмотреть потому, что это хорошая отправная точка для того, чтобы начать писать свои. Почему это называется dotfiles? Всё просто - большинство настроек консольных (и не только) утилит делается с помощью скрытых файлов, которые начинаются с точки.
Дальше кратко, что можно настроить с кратким описанием.

### Консоль

Первое надо определиться с шеллом, благо выбора теперь много: bash, zsh, fish и прочая эзотерика.
Мой выбор остановился на zsh и долго время использовал с oh-my-zsh, потом перешёл на presto, но понял что это всё дико замедляет старт консоли. В итоге, всё выкинул и просто написал с нуля.
Из полезных мыслей:
- Перекрашивать цвет консоли в зависимости по hostname.
- Иметь source .zshrc_local, чтобы иметь локальные настройки с приватными данными.

### Git

Git из довольно простой утилиты превратился в комбайн на любой случай. Вероятно из-за этого появляется куча обёрток (например, [tig](https://jonas.github.io/tig/)) или пользуются встроенным в IDE плагином (иногда не зная как оно работает). Какие проблемы можно выделить? Многословность команд по буковкам, и ещё хуже многословность по смыслам: checkout - и переключение между ветками, и по коммитам, и по рефлогам (не встречались с рефлогами? счастливый человек!). Соответственно, чтобы избежать этих проблем можно настроить себе алиасы в `.gitconfig`.
Из полезных мыслей:
- В gitconfig есть include, то есть тоже можно сделать `.gitconfig_local`.
- И что более важно есть [includeIf](https://git-scm.com/docs/git-config#_conditional_includes), и можно по пути репозитория подменять ssh-ключи и email.
- Можно настроить `.gitignore_global`, чтобы не добавлять всякие `*.swp` в каждый репозиторий.

### .config

GUI приложения начали по аналоги с консольными складывать свои настройки, но так как их может быть много, то вместо одного файла используют папку `.config/SOFTNAME/`. Туда можно положить настройки шрифтов, настройки текстового редактора (например, VS Code вместо settings sync который они выкатывали полгода) или используемого window managers.

### Итого

Последняя полезная команда на сегодня, который подсказал коллега на работе ссылаясь на [статью](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11070797), это как устанавливать на новый компьютер:
```shell
git --git-dir=$HOME/.myconf/ --work-tree=$HOME
```

На этом всё. (:

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaGithub