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The Euro
The Globalists Strike Back With A Major Push Toward A Cashless Society
February 14, 2017 by Michael Snyder
Their agenda may be on the rocks in the United States at the moment, but that doesn't mean that the globalists are giving up. In fact, a major push toward a cashless society is being made in the European Union right now. Last May we learned that the 500 euro note is being completely eliminated, and just a few weeks ago the European Commission released a new "Action Plan" which instructs member states to explore "potential upper limits to cash payments". In the name of "fighting terrorism", this "Action Plan" discusses the benefits of "prohibitions for cash payments above a specific threshold" and it says that those prohibitions should include "virtual currencies (such as BitCoin) and prepaid instruments (such as pre-paid credit cards) when they are used anonymously."
This new document does not mention what an appropriate threshold would be for member states, but we do know that Spain already bans certain cash transactions above 2,500 euros, and Italy and France already ban cash transactions above 1,000 euros.
This is a perfect way to transition to a cashless society without creating too much of an uproar. By setting a maximum legal level for cash transactions and slowly lowering it, in effect you can slowly but surely phase cash out without people understanding what is happening.
And there are many places in Europe where it is very difficult to even use cash at this point. In Sweden, many banks no longer take or give out cash, and approximately 95 percent of all retail transactions are entirely cashless. So even though Sweden has not officially banned cash, using cash is no longer practical in most situations. In fact, many tourists are shocked to find out that they cannot even pay bus fare with cash.
So most of Europe is already moving in this direction, and now this new Action Plan is intended to accelerate the transition toward a cashless society. The public is being told that these measures are being taken to fight money laundering and terrorism, but of course that is only a small part of the truth. The following comes from the Anti-Media…
The European Action Plan doesn't mention a specific dollar amount for restrictions, but as expected, their reasoning for the move is to thwart money laundering and the financing of terrorism. Border checks between countries have already been bolstered to help implement these new standards on hard assets. Although these end goals are plausible, there are other clear motivations for governments to target paper money that aren't as noble.
In a truly cashless society, governments would be able to track where everybody is and what everybody is doing all the time. And in order to have access to the cashless system, people would have to comply with whatever requirements governments wanted to impose on their helpless populations. The potential for tyranny that this would create would be off the charts, but very few people seem greatly alarmed by the move toward a cashless system all over the globe.
Even in the United States there are calls for a cashless system. For example, the former chief economist for the IMF wrote an article for the Wall Street Journal not too long ago in which he recommended the elimination of the $100 bill…
"There is little debate among law-enforcement agencies that paper currency, especially large notes such as the U.S. $100 bill, facilitates crime: racketeering, extortion, money laundering, drug and human trafficking, the corruption of public officials, not to mention terrorism. There are substitutes for cash—cryptocurrencies, uncut diamonds, gold coins, prepaid cards—but for many kinds of criminal transactions, cash is still king. It delivers absolute anonymity, portability, liquidity and near-universal acceptance."
Over in Asia restrictions are being put on cash as well. Legendary investor Jim Rogers commented on what is currently happening in India during one recent podcast…
The time will come when you won't be able to buy a cup of coffee without being traced, warns investment guru Jim Rogers. To control people, governments will increasingly seek to hunt down cash spending, he adds.
"Governments are always looking out for themselves first, and it's the same old thing that has been going on for hundreds of years. The Indians recently did the same thing. They withdrew 86 percent of the currency in circulation, and they have now made it illegal to spend more than, I think it's about $4,000 in any cash transaction. In France you cannot use more than, I think it's a €1,000," said Rogers in an interview with MacroVoices Podcast.
The reason why this is taking place all over the planet is because this is a global agenda.
The globalists ultimately plan to completely eliminate cash, and this will give them an unprecedented level of control over humanity.
One thing that many fear may someday be implemented is some form of microchip identification system. In order to access the cashless grid, you would need your "ID chip" so that the system could positively identify you, but of course there are millions of people around the world that do not intend to get chipped under any circumstances.
In the old days, you would be labeled a "conspiracy theorist" just for suggesting that they may try to chip all of us one day, but in 2017 things have completely changed.
Just look at what is happening in Nevada. A bill has been introduced in the state senate that would outlaw the "forced microchipping of people"…
State Sen. Becky Harris said a bill to prohibit forced microchipping of people is not as far-fetched as it might seem, because it happens in some places around the world.
Senate Bill 109 would make it a Class C felony to require someone to be implanted with a radio frequency identifier, such as microchips placed in pets.
The idea for the bill came from a constituent, the Las Vegas Republican said.
If that sounds very strange to you, then you may not know that companies all around the globe are already starting to explore this type of technology. For instance, a company in Belgium called NewFusion has actually begun to microchip their employees…
In a move that could be lifted straight from science fiction, workers at a Belgian marketing firm are being offered the chance to have microchips implanted in their bodies.
The chips contain personal information and provide access to the company's IT systems and headquarters, replacing existing ID cards.
The controversial devices raise questions about personal security and safety, including whether they may allow the movements of people with implants to be tracked.
Technology like this often starts off being "voluntary", but then after enough people willingly accept it the transition to "mandatory" is not too difficult.
We live at one of the most critical moments in all of human history, and the globalists are certainly not going to lay down and die just because Donald Trump won the election.
The U.S. represents less than five percent of the population of the planet, and in most of the world the agenda of the globalists is on track and is rapidly advancing.
The globalists want a unified one world economy, a unified one world religion and a unified one world government. The election of Donald Trump was a blow to the globalists, but it has also made them more dangerous, more ruthless and more determined than ever before.
And in case you think that using the term "globalists" is a bit strange, the truth is that even the New York Times is using it to describe the global elite and their global agenda.
We are in a life or death battle for the future of our society, and the globalists are never going to give up until they get what they want. So now is not a time for complacency, because the very future of our country is at stake.
Categories Commentary, EuropeTags Bitcoin, Cash, Cash Banned, Cash Being Phased Out, Cash Outlawed, Cash Payments, Cashless, Cashless Society, Cashless System, Credit Cards, France, Globalists, Italy, Money, Spain, The Euro215 Comments
Major Economic Warning Sign: The Euro Is Heading For Parity With The U.S. Dollar
December 16, 2016 December 15, 2016 by Michael Snyder
The collapse of the euro is accelerating, and it looks like we could be staring a major European financial crisis right in the face early in 2017. On Thursday, the EUR/USD fell all the way to $1.0366 at one point before rebounding slightly. That represents the lowest that the euro has been relative to the U.S. dollar since January 2003. Ever since 2011, I have been relentlessly warning that the euro is heading for parity with the U.S. dollar. When the EUR/USD was trading at about $1.40 that must have seemed like crazy talk, but I never wavered. I just kept warning people that the euro was going to weaken greatly relative to the U.S. dollar. Here is one example from March 2015: "How many times have I said it? The euro is heading to all-time lows. It is going to go to parity with the U.S. dollar, and then it is eventually going to go below parity." After Thursday, we are almost there, and once we do hit parity that is going to be a sign that all sorts of chaos is about to erupt in Europe.
For years, so many people that write about our coming economic problems have been proclaiming that the death of the U.S. dollar is imminent.
But I have always taken a different approach. I have always maintained that the collapse of the euro comes first, and that the death of the U.S. dollar happens some time later.
So many people have wanted to get rid of all of their dollars in anticipation of the coming crisis, but that is a huge mistake.
First of all, without exception everyone needs an emergency fund that can cover at least six months of expenses in case there is a job loss, a health emergency or all hell breaks loose for some reason.
Secondly, cash is going to be king during the initial stages of the coming crisis. Later on the U.S. dollar will rapidly lose value, but at first it will pay to have significant amounts of cash available to you.
Most people out there seem to think that a strong dollar is great news and that it is a sign of good things to come under Donald Trump.
But the truth is that an overly strong U.S. dollar is actually very bad news for the global economy.
For the U.S., a strong dollar hurts our exports and tends to drag down our GDP.
For the rest of the world, a strong dollar makes it more expensive to borrow money. The economic boom in the developing world following the last financial crisis was fueled by mountains of cheap dollars that were borrowed at ultra-low interest rates. But now the U.S. dollar is surging and interest rates are spiking, and that is starting to cause major problems.
It now takes much more local currency to pay back those dollar-denominated loans that were made in emerging markets during the boom times. If the U.S. dollar continues to rise we are going to see a staggering number of defaults, and a credit crunch in many areas of the globe seems inevitable at this point.
Of course the big thing to keep an eye on over the coming weeks is the rapidly unfolding crisis in Italy. The Italians have the 8th largest economy on the entire planet, and we are in the process of watching their entire banking system completely implode.
In fact, their third largest bank is in imminent danger of collapse, and according to Reuters this could trigger "a wider banking and political crisis in Italy"…
Italy's government is ready to pump 15 billion euros into Monte dei Paschi di Siena (BMPS.MI) and other ailing banks, sources said, as the country's third-largest lender pushes ahead with a private rescue plan that is widely expected to fail.
The world's oldest bank has until Dec. 31 to raise 5 billion euros ($5.2 billion) in equity or face being wound down by the European Central Bank, potentially triggering a wider banking and political crisis in Italy.
If needed, the government will pump 15 billion euros into the Siena-based lender and several other smaller banks to prevent that, two sources close to the matter said on Thursday.
This is so much more serious than the ongoing economic depression in Greece.
Greece is just the 44th largest economy on the planet, and we saw how much trouble Europe had trying to bail them out.
So what is the rest of Europe going to do when financial collapse hits Italy?
Here in the United States very few people are interested in hearing about a "global financial crisis" right at this moment, because in the aftermath of the election most people are feeling really good about where things are heading. Just consider the following three facts that I pulled out of a Bloomberg article…
#1 "The National Association of Homebuilders' index of sentiment soared to an 11-year high in December, despite the sizable rise in bond yields since the election."
#2 "The University of Michigan's December index of consumer confidence also continued its upward post-election trend, rising to 98. A sub-index that tracks respondents' opinion of the government's economic policies spiked to levels not seen since 2009."
#3 "The National Federation of Independent Businesses' index of optimism among small businesses posted its sharpest surge since 2009 in November to reach 98.4. An expected improvement in business conditions among small business owners surveyed after Nov. 8 was the largest contributor to the improvement in the headline print."
Hopefully happy days will stick around for a while.
But it won't last forever.
As I have warned so many times, the coming crisis is going to hit Europe first, and the United States will join the party not too long after.
And a key marker that we have been watching for is almost here. The euro is going to hit parity with the U.S. dollar just like I have been warning, and once that takes place expect events to start accelerating significantly.
Categories Commentary, EuropeTags Currency Trading, Economic, Economic Warning Signs, European, Forex, Forex Trading, The Death Of The Dollar, The Death Of The Euro, The Euro, The U.S. Dollar241 Comments
Global Financial Markets Plunged Into Chaos As Italy Overwhelmingly Votes 'No'
December 4, 2016 December 4, 2016 by Michael Snyder
Italian voters have embraced the global trend of rejecting the established world order, but the "no" vote on Sunday has plunged global financial markets into a state of utter chaos. The euro has already fallen to a 20 month low, Italian government bonds are poised for a tremendous crash, and futures markets are indicating that both U.S. and European stock markets will be way down when they open on Monday. It is being projected that Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi's referendum on constitutional reforms will be defeated by about 20 percentage points when all the votes have been counted, and Renzi has already announced that he plans to resign as a result. When new elections are held it looks like comedian Beppe Grillo's Five-Star movement will come to power, and the European establishment is extremely alarmed at that prospect because Grillo wants to take Italy out of the eurozone. In the long run Italy would be much better off without the euro, but in the short-term the only thing propping up Italy's failing banking system is support from Europe. Without that support, the 8th largest economy on the entire planet would already be in the midst of an unprecedented financial crisis.
I know that I said a lot in that first paragraph, but it is imperative that people understand how serious this crisis could quickly become.
This "no" vote virtually guarantees a major banking crisis for Italy, and many analysts fear that it could trigger a broader financial crisis all across the rest of the continent as well.
Just look at what has already happened. All of the votes haven't even been counted yet, and the euro is absolutely plummeting…
The euro dropped 1.3 percent to $1.0505, falling below its 1 1/2-year low of $1.0518 touched late last month, and testing its key support levels where the currency has managed to rebound in the past couple of years.
A break below its 2015 March low of $1.0457 would send the currency to its lowest level since early 2003, opening a way for a test of $1, or parity against the dollar, a scenario which many market players now see as a real possibility.
In early 2014, there were times when one euro was trading for almost $1.40. For a very long time I have been warning that the euro was eventually heading for parity with the U.S. dollar, and now we are almost there.
Meanwhile, Italian government bonds are going to continue to crash following this election result. This is going to make it even more difficult for the Italian government to borrow money, and that will only aggravate their ongoing financial troubles.
But the big problem in Italy is the banks. At this moment there are eight banks in imminent danger of collapsing, and virtually all of the rest of them are in some stage of trouble. The following comes from a Bloomberg article about the crisis that Italian banks are facing right at this moment…
They're burdened with a mountain of bad loans. Their stocks have cratered. And they have to operate in an economy prone to recession and political upheaval.
Signs have been mounting for months that Italy's weakest lenders, and in particular Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, were sliding toward the precipice, threatening to reignite a broader crisis.
And we may get some news regarding the fate of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena as early as Monday morning if what the Sydney Morning Herald is reporting is correct…
A last-gasp rescue for Monte dei Paschi di Siena, the world's oldest surviving bank, has been thrown into doubt after reformist prime minister Matteo Renzi decisively lost a referendum on constitutional reform on Sunday.
MPS and advisers JPMorgan and Mediobanca will meet as early as Monday morning to decide whether to pull a plan to go ahead with a €5bn recapitalisation, the FT reports, citing people informed of the plan.
Senior bankers will decide whether to pursue their underwriting commitments or exercise their right to drop the transaction due to adverse market conditions, these people said. In the event the banks drop the capital plan, the Italian state is expected to nationalise the bank, say senior bankers.
If Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena fails, major banks all over Italy (and all over the rest of Europe) could start going down like dominoes.
So what were Italians voting on anyway?
Well, the truth is that the constitutional reforms that were proposed actually sound quite boring…
"The changes involve sharply reducing the size of one of the chambers of Parliament — the Senate — shifting its powers to the executive, and eliminating the Senate's power to bring down government coalitions.
"The amendments also shift some powers now held by the regions to the central government, thereby reducing frequent and lengthy court battles between Rome and the regional governments."
The reason why this vote was ultimately so important is because it became a referendum on Renzi's administration. The fact that he announced in advance that he would resign if it did not get approved gave a tremendous amount of fuel to the opposition.
So now Beppe Grillo's Five-Star Movement stands poised to come to power, and that could be very bad news for those that are hoping to hold the common currency together.
The following is how NPR recently summarized the main goals of the Five-Star Movement…
"It calls for a government-guaranteed, universal income, abolishing Italy's fiscal commitments to the European Union and a referendum on Italy's membership in the Euro — a prospect that could unravel the entire single currency Eurozone."
If Italy chooses to leave the euro, it will probably mean the end of the common currency, and the continued existence of the entire European Union would be called into question.
So this vote on Sunday was huge. The Brexit had already done a tremendous amount of damage to the long-term prospects for the European Union, and now the crisis in Italy is sending political and financial shockwaves throughout the entire continent.
Over the next few weeks, keep a close eye on the euro and on Italian government bonds.
If they both continue to crash, that will be a sign that a major European financial crisis is now upon us.
And what happens in Europe definitely does not stay in Europe.
If Europe goes down, we are going to go down too.
At this point we still have almost a month left in 2016, but 2017 is already shaping up to be a very troubling year. As always, let us hope for the best, but let us also keep preparing for the worst.
Categories Europe, Financial MarketsTags Banking, Banks, Bonds, Crash, Crisis, Debt, European, Financial, Financial Crisis, Global, Global Financial Markets, Italian, Italian Government Bonds, Italy, Italy's Banking System, Markets, The Euro206 Comments
3 Big Reasons Why The 'Greek Debt Deal' Is Really A German Trap
Greece is saved? All over the planet, news headlines are boldly proclaiming that a "deal" has been reached which will give Greece the money that it needs and keep it in the eurozone. But as you will see below, this is not true at all. Yesterday, when I wrote that "there never was going to be any deal", I was not exaggerating. This "deal" was not drafted with the intention of "saving Greece". As I explained in my previous article, these negotiations were all about setting up Greece for eviction from the euro. You see, the truth is that Greece desperately wants to stay in the euro, but Germany (and allies such as Finland) want Greece out. Since Germany can't simply order Greece to leave the euro, they need some sort of legal framework which will make it possible, and that is what this new "deal" provides. As I am about to explain, there are all kinds of conditions that must be satisfied and hurdles that must be crossed before Greece ever sees a single penny. If there is a single hiccup along the way, and this is what the Germans are counting on, Greece will be ejected from the eurozone. This "deal" has been designed to fail so that the Germans can get what they have wanted all along. I think that three very famous words from Admiral Ackbar sum up the situation very well: "It's a trap!"
So why is this "Greek debt deal" really a German trap?
The following are three big reasons…
#1 The "Deal" Is Designed To Be Rejected By The Greek Parliament
If Germany really wanted to save Greece, they would have already done so. Instead, now they have forced Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras to agree to much, much harsher austerity terms than Greek voters overwhelmingly rejected during the recent referendum by a vote of 61 percent to 39 percent. Tsipras has only been given until Wednesday to pass a whole bunch of new laws, and another week to make another series of major economic changes. The following comes from CNN…
Greece has to swiftly pass a series of new laws. Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has until Wednesday to convince Parliament to pass the first few, including pension cuts and higher taxes.
Assuming that happens, Greek lawmakers have another week, until July 22, to enact another batch of economic changes. These include adopting European Union rules on how to manage banks in crisis, and do a major overhaul to make Greece's civil courts faster and more efficient.
Can Tsipras actually get all this done in such a short amount of time?
The Germans are hoping that he can't. And already, two of Syriza's coalition partners have publicly declared that they have no intention of voting in favor of this "deal". The following is from a Bloomberg report…
Discontent brewed as Tsipras arrived back in the Greek capital. Left Platform, a faction within Syriza, and his coalition partners, the Independent Greeks party, both signaled they won't be able to support the deal. That opposition alone would wipe out Tsipras's 12-seat majority in parliament, forcing him to rely on opposition votes to carry the day.
The terms of the "deal" are not extremely draconian because the Germans want to destroy Greek sovereignty as many are suggesting. Rather, they are designed to provoke an overwhelmingly negative reaction in Greece so that the Greeks will willingly choose to reject the deal and thus be booted out of the euro.
And this is what we are seeing. So far, the response of the Greek public toward this deal has been overwhelmingly negative…
Haralambos Rouliskos, a 60-year-old economist who was out walking in Athens, described the deal as "misery, humiliation and slavery".
Katerina Katsaba, a 52-year-old working for a pharmaceutical company, said: "I am not in favour of this deal. I know they (the eurozone creditors) are trying to blackmail us."
On Wednesday, the union for Greek public workers has even called a 24 hour strike to protest this "agreement"…
Greece's public workers are being called to stage a 24-hour strike on Wednesday, the day their country's parliament is to vote on reforms needed to unlock the bankster eurozone plan agreed to by Greek Prime Minster Alex Tsipras.
Their union, Adedy, called for the stoppage in a statement issued today, saying it was against the agreement reached with the eurozone.
The Greek government is not guaranteed any money right now.
According to Bloomberg, the Greek government must pass all of the laws being imposed upon them by the EU "before Greece can even begin negotiations with creditors to access a third international bailout in five years."
The Germans and their allies are actually hoping that there is a huge backlash in Greece and that Tsipras fails to get this package pushed through the Greek parliament. If that happens, Greece gets ejected from the euro, and Germany doesn't look like the bad guy.
#2 Even If The "Deal" Miraculously Gets Through The Greek Parliament, It May Not Survive Other European Parliaments
The Greek parliament is not the only legislative body that must approve this new deal. The German and Finnish parliaments (among others) must also approve it. According to USA Today, it is being projected that the German and Finnish parliaments will probably vote on this new deal on Thursday or Friday…
Thursday/Friday, July 16/17: Eurozone parliaments must also agree to the plan for Greece's $95 billion bailout. The biggest tests may come from Finland and Germany, two nations especially critical of Greece's handling of the crisis. Berlin has contributed the most to Greece's loans.
Either Germany or Finland could kill the entire "deal" with a single "no" vote.
Finnish Finance Minister Alexander Stubb has already stated that Finland "cannot agree" with a new bailout for Greece, and it is highly questionable whether or not the German parliament will give it approval.
I think that the Germans and their allies would much prefer for the Greeks to reject the deal and walk away, but it may come down to one of these parliaments drawing a line in the sand.
#3 The Deal Makes Implementation Extraordinarily Difficult
If Greece fails to live up to each and every one of the extremely draconian measures demanded in the "deal", they will be booted from the eurozone.
And if you take a look at what is being demanded of them, it is extremely unrealistic. Here is just one example…
For instance, the Greek government agreed to transfer up to 50 billion euros worth of Greek assets to an independent fund that will raise money from privatization.
According to the document, 25 billion euros from this fund will be poured into the banks, 12.5 billion will be used to pay off debt, and the remaining 12.5 billion to boost the economy through investment.
The fund will be based in Greece and run by the Greeks, but with supervision from European authorities.
Where in the world is the Greek government going to find 50 billion euros worth of assets at this point? The Greek government is flat broke and the banks are insolvent.
But if they don't find 50 billion euros worth of assets, they have violated the agreement and they get booted.
This whole thing is about setting up Greece for failure so that there is a legal excuse to boot them out of the euro.
And it actually almost happened very early on Monday morning. The following comes from Business Insider…
As the FT tells it, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras rose from their chairs at 6 a.m. on Monday and headed for the door, resigned to a Greek exit from the euro.
"Sorry, but there is no way you are leaving this room," European Council president Donald Tusk reportedly said.
And so a Grexit was avoided.
For the moment, Greece has supposedly been "saved".
But anyone that believes that this crisis is "over" is just being delusional.
The Germans and their allies have successfully lured the Greek government into a trap. Thanks to Tsipras, they have been handed a legal framework for getting rid of Greece.
All they have to do now is wait for just the right moment to spring the trap, and it might just happen a lot sooner than a lot of people may think.
Categories EuropeTags Debt, Debts, Eurozone, Finland, German, Germans, Germany, Greece, Greece Debt Deal, Greek, Greek Debt Deal, Grexit, Michael T. Snyder, The Euro123 Comments
Germany Never Intended For Greece To Stay In The Euro
There never was going to be any deal. All along, Germany has been seeking to establish conditions that would never be met so that they could force Greece out of the eurozone. But the Germans had to do this subtly so that they would end up looking "reasonable" and would not turn the rest of the eurozone against them. So why does Germany want to get rid of Greece? Well, to be honest, it is because the Germans are sick and tired of paying for Greek mistakes. In Germany, there is an obsession with having a balanced budget. They even have a term for it – "the black zero". So it absolutely infuriates the Germans that the Greeks can never seem to get their act together and that German citizens have to keep paying for it. At this point, the amount of money that Germany has already poured into Greece breaks down to more than 700 euros per citizen, and now Greece is going to need a new bailout of somewhere between 82 billion and 86 billion euros over the next three years. Needless to say, the Germans are fed up with pouring money down a financial black hole, and they know that if they keep bailing Greece out that it is only a matter of time before they will have to bail out Italy, Spain, Portugal, France, etc.
So, no, it hasn't been the Greeks holding up a deal all this time.
It has been the Germans.
And now that we have reached the endgame, the Germans are pushing for what they have always wanted from the very beginning…
The German government has begun preparations for Greece to be ejected from the eurozone, as the European Union faces 24 hours to rescue the single currency project from the brink of collapse.
Finance ministers failed to break the deadlock with Greece over a new bail-out package, after nine hours of acrimonious talks as creditors accused Athens of destroying their trust…
Should no deal be forthcoming, the German government has made preparations to negotiate a temporary five-year euro exit, providing Greece with humanitarian aid while it makes the transition….
The Germans are sick and tired of having the Greeks be so financially dependent on them. So the Germans would really like to cut them off and have them go fend for themselves.
So that is why the EU laid out such draconian conditions for the Greeks over the weekend. The following is how Zero Hedge summarized where things currently stand…
For those who missed today's festivities in Brussels, here is the 30,000 foot summary: Europe has given Greece a "choice": hand over sovereignty to Europe or undergo a 5 year Grexit "time out", which is a polite euphemism for get the hell out.
As noted earlier, here are the 12 conditions laid out as a result of the latest Eurogroup meeting, which are far more draconian than anything presented to Greece yet and which effectively require that Greece cede sovereignty to Europe, this time even without the implementation of a technocratic government.
Streamlining VAT
Broadening the tax base
Sustainability of pension system
Adopt a code of civil procedure
Safeguarding of legal independence for Greece ELSTAT – the statistics office
Full implementation of autmatic spending cuts
Meet bank recovery and resolution directive
Privatize electricity transmission grid
Take decisive action on non-performing loans
Ensure independence of privatization body TAIPED
De-Politicize the Greek administration
Return of the Troika to Athens (the paper calls them the institutions… for now)
Greece has been given until Wednesday to pass all of the legislation necessary to implement all of those conditions.
And if Greece does somehow get all that done, it still won't get them a deal. All it will do is allow them to come back and restart negotiations.
Needless to say, the Greeks are steaming mad at this point. This new "deal" is being called "very bad" and "insulting" by Greek politicians.
But what they may not understand is that Germany does not actually want any deal to happen. Instead, they are working very, very hard to get the Greeks booted out of the euro. The following comes from the Washington Post…
The simple story is that Germany and the other hardline countries don't trust Greece's anti-austerity Syriza party to actually implement, well, austerity. And so rather than coughing up another 60 or 70 or 80 billion euros, they seem to want to push to kick Greece out of the common currency instead. That, at least, was the plan that leaked on Saturday. And now it's part of the actual plan on Sunday. Indeed, it's tentatively been included in the European finance ministers' latest joint statement. This isn't just what Germany is considering. It's what Germany is trying to get the rest of Europe to go along with.
If anyone still doubts what the Germans are trying to do, here it is in black and white…
If no agreement Greece should be offered swift negotiations on a time out from the euro via @IdafeMartin pic.twitter.com/HYnsn3BZ8q
— Bruno Waterfield (@BrunoBrussels) July 12, 2015
And this is not an idea that is new. In fact, some hardliners in Germany have been pushing for a "temporary Greek exit" since at least 2012…
This weekend's events in Europe have clarified who is really running the show across the 'union'. Hans-Werner Sinn, Chairman of the Ifo Institute for Economic Research, vehemnt euroskeptic, and head of the so-called 'five wise men' advising the German government and specifically Angela Merkel, confirmed his call from 2012 for a "temporary grexit from the euro." The right wing economist previously explained "Greece and Portugal have to become 30-40% less expensive to be competitive again. This is being attempted through excessive austerity measures within the euro zone, but it won't work. It will drive these countries to the brink of civil war before it succeeds. Temporary exits would very quickly stabilize these countries, create new jobs and free the population from the yoke of the euro."
The Germans absolutely hate having to open up their wallets for someone else's mess. And they know that if they endlessly bail out Greece that it won't end there. Eventually, much of the rest of the continent will come to them for bailouts too. I think that Nigel Farage nailed it when he summed up what Germany is thinking this way…
"The German thinking is: 'Let's get rid of this mess,'" Farage said. Expressing what he thought Germany was thinking about other troubled peripheral euro zone economies, he added: "'let's send a message to Italy, France, Spain and Portugal that actually, if you're members of this club, you got to abide by our rules.'"
But I believe that Germany is greatly, greatly underestimating the damage that a "Grexit" is going to do to Greece and to the rest of the members of the EU.
In Greece, the banking system is already on the verge of total collapse. We are being told that capital controls will remain in place "for at least six months", and now Greek politicians are even talking about "a possible forced 'bail-in' of depositors"…
Capital controls will stay in place at Greek banks for at least six months, senior officials in Athens warned yesterday, as the government fights to keep lenders afloat.
Leaders of the four main banks and finance ministry officials will meet tomorrow to discuss how to save the banking system from collapse after a run on deposits.
Options under consideration include a consolidation of four main banks down to two, creation of a "bad bank" to house toxic loans, and a possible forced "bail-in" of depositors.
Hmmm – I seem to recall someone warning about this exact scenario nearly two months ago: "Are They About To Confiscate Money From Bank Accounts In Greece Just Like They Did In Cyprus?"
The economic depression in Greece is about to accelerate. But things are also going to get hairy for the rest of the continent as well. As I have warned about so many times, the euro is going to plunge like a rock, European stocks are going to crater, European bond yields are going to soar, and eventually we are actually going to see "too big to fail" banks all over Europe start to fail.
This is the big flaw in the German plan. They truly believe that they can remove the "cancer" of Greece without causing any lasting damage to the rest of the eurozone.
Sadly, they are dead wrong.
Categories Commentary, EuropeTags Eurozone, Financial, Financial Black Hole, German, Germans, Germany, Greece, Greece Debt Deal, Greece Out Of The Eurozone, Greek, Greek Bailout, Greek Debt Deal, Grexit, The Black Zero, The Euro101 Comments
Greece Votes NO – Let The Chaos Begin…
July 20, 2015 July 5, 2015 by Michael Snyder
The result of the referendum in Greece is a great victory for freedom, but it is also threatens to unleash unprecedented economic chaos all across Europe. With almost all of the votes counted, it is being reported that approximately 61 percent of Greeks have voted "no" and only about 39 percent of Greeks have voted "yes". This is a much larger margin of victory for the "no" side than almost everyone was anticipating, and it represents a stunning rejection of European austerity. Massive celebrations have erupted on the streets of Athens and other major Greek cities, but the euphoria may not last long. Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras is promising that Greece will be able to stay in the euro, but that gives EU bureaucrats and the IMF a tremendous amount of power, because at this point the Greek government is flat broke. Without more money from the EU and the IMF, the Greek government will not be able to pay its bills and virtually all Greek banks will inevitably collapse. Meanwhile, the rest of Europe is about to experience a tremendous amount of pain as financial markets respond to the results of this referendum. The euro is already plummeting, and most analysts expect European bond yields to soar and European stocks to drop substantially when trading opens on Monday morning.
Personally, I love the fact that the Greek people decided not to buckle under the pressure being imposed on them by the EU and the IMF. But amidst all of the celebration, the cold, hard reality of the matter is that your options are extremely limited when you are out of money.
How is the Greek government going to pay its bills without any money?
How are the insolvent Greek banks going to operate without any money?
How is the Greek economy going to function without any money?
Now that the Greek people have overwhelmingly rejected the demands of the creditors, it will be very interesting to see what the EU and the IMF do. Prior to the referendum, European leaders were insisting that a "no" vote would put an end to negotiations and would force Greece to leave the euro.
Now that the results are in, are they going to change their tune? Because the ball is definitely in their court…
"This does two things: it legitimises the stance of the Greek government and it leaves the ball in Europe's court," ANZ Bank analysts said in a note.
"Europe either folds or Greece goes bankrupt; over to you Merkel."
So would they actually let Greece go bankrupt?
It is going to be fascinating to watch what happens over the next few days. Right now, Greek banks are on life support. If the European Central Bank decides to pull the plug, they would essentially destroy the entire Greek banking system. The only thing that can keep Greek banks alive and kicking is more intervention from the ECB. The following comes from the New York Times…
Now that Greek voters have said no to the economic demands of its international creditors, the fate of the country's struggling banks is in the hands of the European Central Bank.
Greece's banks, closed since last Monday because they are perilously low on cash, have been kept alive in recent weeks by emergency loans from the European Central Bank. On Monday, the central bank's policy makers plan to convene to determine how much longer they are willing to prop up the Greek banks, now that the country has essentially said no to the unpopular dictates of the other eurozone countries.
Of much greater concern to the rest of the world is how financial markets are going to respond to all of this. As I write this article, things already appear to be unraveling. The following comes from CNBC…
Germany's Dax is indicated sharply lower from Friday's close at around 4 percent, while the euro was down 2 percent against the yen as the news emerged. U.S. stocks are expected to open around 1 percent lower Monday, according to recent stock futures data.
What could be most important for those worried about contagion from the Greek crisis is how Portuguese, Spanish and Italian government bonds perform in Monday morning trade.
If these peripheral euro zone countries, often lumped in with Greece, suffer a sharp spike in yields, this could cause alarm about whether Greece leaving the currency might cause further contagion to other weaker euro zone economies.
This could potentially become a "trigger event" that unleashes a wave of financial panic all over Europe. And once financial panic begins, it is very difficult to end.
If the EU and the IMF want to avoid a crisis, they could just give in to the new Greek government. But that would be politically risky for certain high profile European leaders. For instance, Angela Merkel would face a huge backlash back home if she conceded to the new Greek government now. And other German leaders are already calling the referendum result a "disaster"…
German politicians branded the result a 'disaster', with the country's economy minister Sigmar Gabriel Sigmar accusing Tsipras of 'tearing down the last bridges on which Greece and Europe could have moved towards a compromise'.
He added: 'Tsipras and his government are leading the Greek people on a path of bitter abandonment and hopelessness.'
And the president of the European Parliament, a German, told a German radio station over the weekend that a "no" vote would almost certainly mean that the Greeks will be forced out of the euro…
"If after the referendum, the majority is a 'no,' they will have to introduce another currency because the euro will no longer be available for a means of payment," Martin Schulz, European Parliament president, said on German radio.
That is pretty strong language, eh?
Here is yet another quote from Schulz…
"Without new money, salaries won't be paid, the health system will stop functioning, the power network and public transport will break down, and they won't be able to import vital goods because nobody can pay," he said.
So at this point it is all up to the EU and the IMF, and in particular the focus will be on the Germans.
What will they decide to do?
Will they give in, or will they force the Greeks to leave the euro?
If the Greeks do transition from the euro to a new currency, it will be a process that takes months (if not longer). You just can't change ATMs, computer systems, cash registers, etc. overnight. So a move to the drachma would not be as simple as many are suggesting…
British firms like De La Rue, which prints 150 currencies worldwide, are believed to have been contacted with a view to providing such services.
It's done in great secrecy to prevent currency speculation. The other big problem is the logistical challenges of switching a currency. All ATMs, computers and other machinery of commerce that bears the euro symbol will have to be adjusted. It could, and would, take months.
And if Greece does leave, it will be a massive shock for global financial markets. Faith in the European project will be shattered, the euro will drop like a rock, bond yields all over the continent will rise to unsustainable levels and major banks all over Europe will fail.
I think that the following quote from Romano Prodi sums things up quite well…
Romano Prodi, former chief of the European Commission and Italy's ex-premier, said it is the EU's own survival that is now at stake as the botched handling of the Greek crisis escalates into a catastrophe. "If the EU cannot resolve a small problem the size of Greece, what is the point of Europe?"
Meanwhile, we should all keep in mind that a financial crisis has already erupted over in Asia as well. Chinese stocks have lost 30 percent of their value in just the last three weeks. In fact, the amount of "paper wealth" wiped out in China over the past three weeks is approximately equivalent to "10 times Greece's gross domestic product"…
A dizzying three-week plunge in Chinese equities has wiped out $2.36 trillion in market value — equivalent to about 10 times Greece's gross domestic product last year.
The great financial collapse of 2015 is well underway, and it should be a very interesting week for global markets.
But no matter what happens this week, we all need to keep in mind that this is just the tip of the iceberg.
A "perfect storm" is on the way, and we all need to get prepared for it while we still can.
Categories Commentary, Europe, Financial MarketsTags Alexis Tsipras, Athens, Austerity, Economic Chaos, European Austerity, European Bond Yields, European Stocks, Financial, Germans, Germany, Global Financial Markets, Greece, Greece Crisis, Greece Debt Crisis, Greece Economic Collapse, Greece No Vote, Greek Banks, Greek Crisis, Greek Debt Crisis, Greek Economic Collapse, Greeks, IMF, Referendum In Greece, Stocks, The Euro220 Comments
The Next Great European Financial Crisis Has Begun
June 16, 2015 June 16, 2015 by Michael Snyder
The Greek financial system is in the process of totally imploding, and the rest of Europe will soon follow. Neither the Greeks nor the Germans are willing to give in, and that means that there is very little chance that a debt deal is going to happen by the end of June. So that means that we will likely see a major Greek debt default and potentially even a Greek exit from the eurozone. At this point, credit default swaps on Greek debt have risen 456 percent in price since the beginning of this year, and the market has priced in a 75 percent chance that a Greek debt default will happen. Over the past month, the yield on two year Greek bonds has skyrocketed from 20 percent to more than 30 percent, and the Greek stock market has fallen by a total of 13 percent during the last three trading days alone. This is what a financial collapse looks like, and if Greece does leave the euro, we are going to see this kind of carnage happen all over Europe.
Officials over in Europe are now openly speaking of the need to prepare for a "state of emergency" now that negotiations have totally collapsed. At one time, it would have been unthinkable for Greece to leave the euro, but now it appears that this is precisely what will happen unless a miracle happens…
Greece is heading for a state of emergency and an exit from the euro following the collapse of talks to agree a bailout deal, senior EU officials warned last night.
Europe must be prepared to step in otherwise Greek society would face an unprecedented crisis with power blackouts, medicine shortages and no money to pay for police, they said.
In the past, the Greeks have always buckled under pressure. But this new Greek government was elected with a mandate to end austerity, and so far they have shown a remarkable amount of resolve. In order for a debt deal to happen, one side is going to have to blink, and at this point it does not look like it will be the Greeks…
The world's financial markets are facing up to the possibility that Greece could soon become the first country to crash out of Europe's single currency. Talks between Athens and its eurozone creditors have collapsed in acrimony just days before a final deadline for Greece to unlock the €7.2bn (£5.2bn) in bailout funds it needs to avoid a catastrophic debt default.
The Greek Prime Minister, Alexis Tsipras, accused the creditor powers of hidden "political motives" in their demands that Greece make further cuts to public pension payments in return for the financial aid. "We are shouldering the dignity of our people, as well as the hopes of the people of Europe," Mr Tsipras said in a defiant statement. "We cannot ignore this responsibility. This is not a matter of ideological stubbornness. This is about democracy."
As we approach the point of no return, both sides are preparing for the endgame.
In Greece, members of parliament have been studying what happened in Iceland a few years ago. Many of them believe that a Greek debt default combined with a nationalization of Greek banks and a Greek exit from the euro could set the nation back on the path to prosperity fairly rapidly. The following comes from the Telegraph…
The radical wing of Greece's Syriza party is to table plans over coming days for an Icelandic-style default and a nationalisation of the Greek banking system, deeming it pointless to continue talks with Europe's creditor powers.
Syriza sources say measures being drafted include capital controls and the establishment of a sovereign central bank able to stand behind a new financial system. While some form of dual currency might be possible in theory, such a structure would be incompatible with euro membership and would imply a rapid return to the drachma.
The confidential plans were circulating over the weekend and have the backing of 30 MPs from the Aristeri Platforma or 'Left Platform', as well as other hard-line groupings in Syriza's spectrum. It is understood that the nationalist ANEL party in the ruling coalition is also willing to force a rupture with creditors, if need be.
Meanwhile, in a desperate attempt to get the Greeks to give in at the last moment, Greek's creditors are preparing to pull out all the stops in order to put as much financial pressure on Greece as possible…
Germany's Suddeutsche Zeitung reported that the creditors are drawing an ultimatum to the Greeks, threatening to cut off Greek access to the European payments system and forcing capital controls on the country as soon as this weekend. The plan would lead to the temporary closure of the banks, followed by a rationing of cash withdrawals.
For a long time, most in the financial world assumed that a debt deal would eventually happen. But now reality is setting in. As I mentioned at the top of this article, the cost to insure Greek debt has risen by an astounding 456 percent since the beginning of this year…
Given these dramatic stakes, the risk of a Greek default has gone way up. One way to measure that risk is by looking at the skyrocketing price of insurance policies that would pay out if Greek bonds go bust. The cost to insure Greek debt for one year against the risk of default has skyrocketed 456% since the start of the 2015, according to FactSet data.
These insurance-like contracts, known as credit default swaps, imply there is a 75% to 80% probability of Greece defaulting on its debt, according to Jigar Patel, a credit strategist at Barclays.
The probability of a Greek default soars to a whopping 95% for five-year CDS, Patel said.
"Default is looking more and more likely," Peter Boockvar, chief market analyst at The Lindsey Group, wrote in a note to clients on Tuesday.
And in recent days, we have also seen Greek stocks and Greek bonds totally crash. The following comes from CNN…
The Greek stock market has plummeted 13% over the past three trading days, including a 3% drop on Tuesday alone.
In the bond market, the yield on Greek two-year debt has skyrocketed to 30.2%. A month ago, the yield was only 20%. Yields rise as bond prices fall.
Of course if there is a Greek debt default and Greece does leave the euro, it won't just be Greece that pays the price.
As I have written about previously, there are tens of trillions of dollars in derivatives that are directly tied to currency exchange rates and 505 trillion dollars in derivatives that are directly tied to interest rates. A "Grexit" would cause the euro to drop like a rock and interest rates all over the continent would start to go crazy. The financial chaos that a "Grexit" would cause should not be underestimated.
And there are signs that some of Europe's biggest banks are already on the verge of collapse. For example, just consider what has been going on at the biggest bank in Germany. Both of the co-CEOs at Deutsche Bank recently resigned, and it is increasingly looking as if it could soon become Europe's version of Lehman Brothers. The following summary of the recent troubles at Deutsche Bank comes from an article that was posted on NotQuant…
Here's a re-cap of what's happened at Deutsche Bank over the past 15 months:
In April of 2014, Deutsche Bank was forced to raise an additional 1.5 Billion of Tier 1 capital to support it's capital structure. Why?
1 month later in May of 2014, the scramble for liquidity continued as DB announced the selling of 8 billion euros worth of stock – at up to a 30% discount. Why again? It was a move which raised eyebrows across the financial media. The calm outward image of Deutsche Bank did not seem to reflect their rushed efforts to raise liquidity. Something was decidedly rotten behind the curtain.
Fast forwarding to March of this year: Deutsche Bank fails the banking industry's "stress tests" and is given a stern warning to shore up it's capital structure.
In April, Deutsche Bank confirms it's agreement to a joint settlement with the US and UK regarding the manipulation of LIBOR. The bank is saddled with a massive $2.1 billion payment to the DOJ. (Still, a small fraction of their winnings from the crime).
In May, one of Deutsche Bank's CEOs, Anshu Jain is given an enormous amount of new authority by the board of directors. We guess that this is a "crisis move". In times of crisis the power of the executive is often increased.
June 5: Greece misses it's payment to the IMF. The risk of default across all of it's debt is now considered acute. This has massive implications for Deutsche Bank.
June 6/7: (A Saturday/Sunday, and immediately following Greece's missed payment to the IMF) Deutsche Bank's two CEO's announce their surprise departure from the company. (Just one month after Jain is given his new expanded powers). Anshu Jain will step down first at the end of June. Jürgen Fitschen will step down next May.
June 9: S&P lowers the rating of Deutsche Bank to BBB+ Just three notches above "junk". (Incidentally, BBB+ is even lower than Lehman's downgrade – which preceded it's collapse by just 3 months)
And that's where we are now. How bad is it? We don't know because we won't be permitted to know. But these are not the moves of a healthy company.
For a very long time, I have been warning that a major financial crisis was coming to Europe, and for a very long time the authorities in Europe have been able to successfully kick the can down the road.
But now it looks like we have reached the end of the road, and a day of reckoning is finally here.
Nobody is quite sure what is going to happen next, but almost everyone agrees that it isn't going to be pretty.
So you better buckle up, because it looks like we are all in for a wild ride as we enter the second half of this year.
Categories Europe, Financial MarketsTags Credit Default Swaps, Crisis, Debt, Debt Deal, Debt Default, Default, European, European Financial Crisis, Financial, Financial Collapse, Financial Crisis, German, Germans, Greece, Greek, Greek Bonds, Greek Debt, Greek Debt Default, Greek Exit From The Eurozone, Greek Stock Market, The Euro110 Comments
The Last, Great Run For The U.S. Dollar, The Death Of The Euro And 74 Trillion In Currency Derivatives At Risk
Are we on the verge of an unprecedented global currency crisis? On Tuesday, the euro briefly fell below $1.07 for the first time in almost a dozen years. And the U.S. dollar continues to surge against almost every other major global currency. The U.S. dollar index has now risen an astounding 23 percent in just the last eight months. That is the fastest pace that the U.S. dollar has risen since 1981. You might be tempted to think that a stronger U.S. dollar is good news, but it isn't. A strong U.S. dollar hurts U.S. exports, thus harming our economy. In addition, a weak U.S. dollar has fueled tremendous expansion in emerging markets around the planet over the past decade or so. When the dollar becomes a lot stronger, it becomes much more difficult for those countries to borrow more money and repay old debts. In other words, the emerging market "boom" is about to become a bust. Not only that, it is important to keep in mind that global financial institutions bet a tremendous amount of money on currency movements. According to the Bank for International Settlements, 74 trillion dollars in derivatives are tied to the value of the U.S. dollar, the value of the euro and the value of other global currencies. When currency rates start flying around all over the place, you can rest assured that someone out there is losing an enormous amount of money. If this derivatives bubble ends up imploding, there won't be enough money in the entire world to bail everyone out.
Do you remember what happened the last time the U.S. dollar went on a great run like this?
As you can see from the chart below, it was in mid-2008, and what followed was the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression…
A rapidly rising U.S. dollar is extremely deflationary for the overall global economy.
This is a huge red flag, and yet hardly anyone is talking about it.
Meanwhile, the euro continues to spiral into oblivion…
How many times have I said it? The euro is heading to all-time lows. It is going to go to parity with the U.S. dollar, and then it is eventually going to go below parity.
This is going to cause massive headaches in the financial world.
The Europeans are attempting to cure their economic problems by creating tremendous amounts of new money. It is the European version of quantitative easing, but it is having some very nasty side effects.
The markets are starting to realize that if the value of the U.S. dollar continues to surge, it is ultimately going to be very bad for stocks. In fact, the strength of the U.S. dollar is being cited as the primary reason for the Dow's 332 point decline on Tuesday…
The Dow Jones industrial average fell more than 300 points to below the index's 50-day moving average, wiping out gains for the year. The S&P 500 also closed in the red for the year and breached its 50-day moving average, which is an indicator of the market trend. Only the Nasdaq held onto gains of 2.61 percent for the year.
There's "concern that energy and the strength in the dollar will somehow be negative for the equities," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Wunderlich Securities. He noted that the speed of the dollar's surge was the greatest market driver, amid mixed economic data and concerns about the Federal Reserve raising interest rates.
And as I noted above, when the U.S. dollar rises the things that we export to other nations become more expensive and that hurts our businesses.
This is so basic that even the White House understands it…
Despite reassurance from The Fed that a strengthening dollar is positive for US jobs, The White House has now issued a statement that a "strengthening USD is a headwind for US growth."
But even more important, a surging U.S. dollar makes it more difficult for emerging markets all over the world to borrow new money and to repay old debts. This is especially true for nations that heavily rely on exporting commodities…
It becomes especially ugly for emerging market economies that produce commodities. Many emerging market countries rely on their natural resources for growth and haven't yet developed more advanced industries. As the products of their principal industries decline in value, foreign investors remove available credit while their currency is declining against the U.S. dollar. They don't just find it difficult to pay their debt – it is impossible.
It has been estimated that emerging markets have borrowed more than 3 trillion dollars since the last financial crisis.
But now the process that created the emerging markets "boom" is starting to go into reverse.
The global economy is fueled by cheap dollars. So if the U.S. dollar continues to rise, that is not going to be good news for anyone.
And of course the biggest potential threat of all is the 74 trillion dollar currency derivatives bubble which could end up bursting at any time.
The sophisticated computer algorithms that financial institutions use to trade currency derivatives are ultimately based on human assumptions. When currencies move very little and the waters are calm in global financial markets, those algorithms tend to work really, really well.
But when the unexpected happens, some of the largest financial firms in the world can implode seemingly overnight.
Just remember what happened to Lehman Brothers back in 2008. Unexpected events can cripple financial giants in just a matter of hours.
Today, there are five U.S. banks that each have more than 40 trillion dollars of total exposure to derivatives of all types. Those five banks are JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Citibank and Morgan Stanley.
By transforming Wall Street into a gigantic casino, those banks have been able to make enormous amounts of money.
But they are constantly performing a high wire act. One of these days, their reckless gambling is going to come back to haunt them, and the entire global financial system is going to be severely harmed as a result.
As I have said so many times before, derivatives are going to be at the heart of the next great global financial crisis.
And thanks to the wild movement of global currencies in recent months, there are now more than 74 trillion dollars in currency derivatives at risk.
Anyone that cannot see trouble on the horizon at this point is being willingly blind.
Categories Europe, Financial MarketsTags Crisis, Currencies, Currency Crisis, Currency Derivatives, Currency Movements, Currency Trading, Debts, Derivatives, Derivatives Bubble, Dollar, Emerging Markets, Euro, Euros, Financial, Global Currencies, Global Currency Crisis, Old Debts, Repay Old Debts, Strong U.S. Dollar, The Euro, The U.S. Dollar, U.S. Dollar Index112 Comments


Carol and I were on a little fall vacation with our dear friends Ed and Becky Berg in Myrtle Beach, SC. Thursday noon we at lunch at a little restaurant on the boardwalk. We had just finished lunch and were just sitting there visiting when Carol complained of being really dizzy and nauseous. It soon became apparent that this was something very serious as she passed out. EMS arrived and took her to the hospital in Myrtle Beach where she was diagnosed with a serious bleed in here cerebellum. Carol is on life support systems and under sedation. So she has not regained consciousness since we left the restaurant. She is listed as stable, but very critical.
Our oldest daughter, Stephanie Hamell, arrived around 1:30 AM today. Our son, Chad Funnemark will arrive around 10:00 AM today and our middle daughter, Mickolyn Clapper will arrive around 11:00 AM today. at this point we have no real answers. We are just waiting on the doctors to evaluate her and give us some answers. She's in God's hands.


The mission of the General Registrar's Office is to provide opportunities, in an equitable and courteous manner, for all qualified citizens of the City of Richmond to register to vote; to promote the integrity of the electoral process by maintaining accurate and current voter registration records used in elections; to coordinate elections so they are conducted in a manner that secures the qualified citizen's right to vote and ensures that the results accurately reflect the voter's will; and to be an information resource for citizens regarding voter registration, elections, and elected officials.
Elections in the City of Richmond are governed by the three member Electoral Board who are appointed by the City of Richmond Circuit Court for three year terms. Two of the Board members must be of the same political party as the sitting Governor. The third must be of the opposite party. The Board members' terms are staggered so that one expires each year. The current Electoral Board members are: James M. Nachman, Chairman, Joyce K. Smith, Vice- Chairman and C. Starlet Stevens, Secretary.
While all matters election fall within the purview of the local electoral board, voter registration is the sole province of the General Registrar. In the City of Richmond, the General Registrar also provides administrative staff support to the Electoral Board. The General Registrar is appointed by the Electoral Board for a four year term. The current General Registrar is J. Kirk Showalter.
The next meeting of the City of Richmond Electoral Board will be held on Thursday, March 21, 2019 at 5:00 PM. The meeting will be held in the 5th floor conference room of City Hall, 900 East Broad Street, Richmond, Virginia. Agendas will be available prior to the meeting upon request.
All meetings of the Electoral Board are open to the public. To view the Board's public comment speakers' guidelines, click here.


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Major curriculum overhaul looking likely
23 Jan 2020, by Amy Sarcevic
Professor Geoff Masters, the person behind a proposed curriculum overhaul for New South Wales has so far racked up "considerable support" from teachers for his suggested redesign, which is due for finalisation this year.
Since the release of his interim report in October last year, Masters has received more than 700 submissions providing feedback on his recommended reforms.
"The submissions are still being reviewed, but the overall feedback has been encouraging. This feedback will play an important role in shaping the final report," he said ahead of the SMH School Summit 2020.
Masters' report challenges the traditional aged-based syllabus, proposing instead a model in which students work through a sequence of learning units, for each of their academic subjects.
At any given time, students will work on a unit appropriate to their current level of attainment, only progressing to the next unit when a teacher has decided they are ready.
Within this model, students continue to be grouped into school years, but primarily for social reasons.
"This is a significant change to the status quo, and so it's important that it has the support of the teaching community," Masters told Informa.
"As you may expect there have been a mix of views, but I'm overall very pleased with the response."
Opponents of the reform say that having students in the same class working at different levels may encourage peer-to-peer comparisons, putting undue pressure on students and causing anxiety. Particularly in an era in which childhood and adolescent anxiety – and anxiety-related disorders – are at a record high.
But Masters doesn't agree.
"Students who receive low grades year after year on syllabuses that somebody has decided are appropriate for their age, often believe that they are "poor learners" and suffer low self-esteem – a precursor to feelings of anxiety," he said.
"At the other extreme, aged-based syllabuses often do not stretch more advanced students to the levels of which they are capable. Those unchallenged tend to become disengaged, with some even underperforming as a result.
"When a student is given learning material appropriate to their level of attainment, both engagement and learning outcomes will be greatly improved.
"By recognising individual growth over time, the model is designed to foster student wellbeing and, in turn, reduce anxiety," he argued.
The report also proposes the "decluttering" of the curriculum by reducing the amount of material teachers are expected to teach, focusing instead on essential knowledge and concepts in each subject.
"The aim is to develop a deeper understanding of content and to ensure students appreciate the relevance and potential applications of what they are learning," he said.
Masters also sees a need for students to be given more opportunities to develop critical life skills in the course of their education.
He argues that every school subject should include activities that require students to use technologies, think critically and creatively, and collaborate and communicate with others.
"No subject should be focused solely on developing knowledge. The application of theory should be part of everyday learning," he said.
Masters' final report isn't due for release until later this year and its fate is ultimately in the hands of the state government; but with support from frontline workers, it's looking likely that change will happen.
Presenting at the third annual SMH School Summit, due to take place 20 February in Sydney, Masters will open debate on his report and give up-to-date commentary on the proposed curriculum reforms.
Premier of New South Wales, The Hon Gladys Berejiklian will headline the event with other insights from the NSW Education Standards Authority and NSW Department of Education.
Learn more and register.
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redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


WHAT IS HYDROGEN FUELLING REBATE?
A qualified Hydrogen fuel cell vehicle that is eligible to receive a vehicle incentive under the CEV Program will also receive an additional $1,000 point-of-sale incentive, known as the "fuelling point-of-sale incentive". This additional incentive is to offset the current barrier of limited hydrogen fuelling locations for fuel cell vehicles. This incentive is also not part of the price negotiation process; the dealership will be required to deduct the fuelling point-of-sale incentive for each eligible hydrogen fuel cell vehicle off the final vehicle price.
Hydrogen Fuel Cell Rebate will also applied on leased vehicles depending on the term of the lease and whether the vehicle is used for personal or fleet purposes as shown below. To qualify for the full value of the incentive, a minimum 36-month lease term is required. If the applicant breaks the lease, the applicant will be required to return the difference between the original lease time incentive and the actual lease time incentive.


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Monday Morning Millionaire
Beautifully Updated Original Old Highland Park Eclectic Prairie Home
by Karen Eubank
Our Monday Morning Millionaire at 3649 Maplewood Avenue is a gorgeous eclectic prairie home in the heart of Old Highland Park. You seldom see a house built in 1921 that has been updated this beautifully, and with such regard for the original charm.
The earliest residents I can find are the Van Valkenburghs. John C. Van Valkenburg partnered with Werner Vogel in Van Valkenburg & Vogel Inc., Landscape Architects. In 1957 Van Vogel came up with an idea for a plaza between Harwood and Ervay, and Commerce and Main with a square pool of water on the Harwood side cascading beneath St. Paul street to an octagonal pool on the Ervay side. The idea was inspired by what was being done to the river in downtown San Antonio, with an eye to drawing State Fair visitors into the downtown area of Dallas. Unfortunately, there was no budget, but wouldn't that have been something?
This eclectic prairie-style home was completely transformed by Underwood Custom Homes and Angela Thompson Design, who used some of the most innovative lighting choices on the market. From the barrel-vaulted entry ceiling, with a Lindsay Adelman chandelier, to the antique Belgian limestone floors, every inch of this two-story, 3,798-square-foot home has been lovingly restored and updated.
A Lindsey Adelman Knotty Bubbles Chandelier, designed from Japanese buoys.
A secondary living area is defined by a custom Edison bulb sculpture.
Original glass windows have been retained as well as louvered French doors, and a corner cabinet in the dining room. While the distinctive touches, the owners have added, like antique French firebrick and an early 19th-century French fireplace, along with reclaimed wood shelving and tiles are not original to the home, they feel as if they have been in place since the house was built.
The kitchen in this eclectic prairie was redesigned with gorgeous statuary marble walls. Yes, you read that right, marble walls. There is really nothing more beautiful than entire walls of marble. The counters are also marble, but the real show-stopper is the island topped with a colossal, waterfall, live-edge slab of walnut. It looks like chocolate dripping off of a giant dish of vanilla ice cream. Cabinetry mimics the prairie-style windows, which were installed in 2017 with phantom screens. Antique brick and another French fire surround have been added to the breakfast area wall.
The house has four bedrooms, three bathrooms, and one powder bath nestled under the staircase with an original copper wall-mounted sink. There are two interior fireplaces and one on the large private balcony overlooking the backyard and pool. If you're counting, that's four fireplaces on the property.
A Waterworks Voltaire freestanding tub and antique French grey firebrick create an eclectic look in the master bathroom.
The two-story guest cottage has a full living room on the first floor and spacious bedroom on the second.
I think Van Valkenburgh would be thrilled that future generations cared as much about landscaping as he did. The present owners have created a retreat reminiscent of the East Coast with the help of Complete Landsculpture. It's designed beautifully for entertaining with stunning terraces, a pool with a spa and fountains, low-maintenance turf, and a Pennsylvania bluestone privacy fence. There's also a two-story 1,053-square-foot guest cottage. Be careful who you invite to stay, as they may never leave.
Allie Beth Allman's Christine McKenny has this Old Highland Park Eclectic Prairie listed for listed for $3.75 million. I suggest you give her a call, as these elegant homes are hard enough to come by today. To have one on offer that is completely updated is quite a find.
Karen Eubank is the owner of Eubank Staging and Design. She has been an award-winning professional home stager for more than 25 years and a professional writer for 20 years. Karen is the mother of a son who's studying music at The University of Miami. An ardent animal lover, she doesn't mind one bit if your fur baby jumps right into her lap. Find Karen at www.eubankstaging.com
3649 Maplewood Avenue, Allie Beth Allman, Angela Thompson Design, Christine McKenny, Highland Park, Karen Eubank, Underwood Custom Homes
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Could EastMed Re-awaken Leviathan?
Filed under Economy, Oil and Gas
A triumphant fanfare was heard in Israel in the middle of the summer: following on the heels of the authorities in Greece and Cyprus, the government had finally ratified the agreement on the construction of the EastMed gas pipeline. The pipeline is intended to deliver gas from the Israeli Leviathan deposit to European consumers.
The agreement was signed in January 2020 but this was preceded by a delay of almost a year: the project proved problematic before its implementation had even begun. Experts are continuing to describe its prospects as unclear: the specific geological characteristics of the Mediterranean seabed – which are driving up investment outlay and depreciation costs – and the geopolitical instability of the region work against EastMed and have put the very possibility of the project being realized in question.
An ambitious task
It is not only the record, almost 2000-km length of the pipeline that is giving rise to doubts about the financial profitability of EastMed, but also the depth at which it needs to pass: in a number of marine areas between Cyprus and Crete the depth at which the pipes are to be laid is over three kilometres. Moreover, it is worth considering that the relief of the Mediterranean at this location is rather complex and the region itself is located in the second most seismically active zone in the world.
If EastMed is implemented it will be the longest and most deep-water gas pipeline in the world. The technologies that allow it to be realized do exist in theory, but in practice they have never yet actually been tested. Experts warn that this ambitious task will not simply automatically increase the cost of the project from $7 billion to $12-13 billion: observers fear that depreciation costs will inevitably have an impact on the price of gas supplied to Europe from the Leviathan oil and gas basin.
However, considering the extremely unstable situation in the gas market in 2020 due to the coronavirus pandemic, these circumstances will hardly interest potential investors and purchasers of Israeli gas. This is all the more so since in southeastern Europe projects such as the extension of TurkStream and the Southern Gas Corridor –of which the Trans-Adriatic gas pipeline (TAP) is a part – are already being implemented. These gas pipelines are either already operational or nearing their launch: the same cannot be said of EastMed, which is only just getting going.
It should be remembered that Leviathan, the main field of the new project on the Israeli shelf, was launched only at the beginning of 2020, after numerous delays, and as experts observe it will be some time before EastMed reaches its projected plateau of 12 billion cubic metres (bcm). And the collapse in gas prices on world markets in the spring of this year has required forecasts for the volume of extraction at Leviathan to be revised downwards from 10 bcm to 7 bcm for the first year.
The small Israeli Tamar deposit, which is already operational might have been able to help in filling the pipes initially, but other than a very small amount supplied to Jordan, gas from there is mainly used in Israel's domestic market.
Copyright: Sergey YAkovlev
Who can help?
The main question that arises in this situation is whether investors can be found for the project. The EU, which lobbies EastMed, allocated only €35 million to it; even with the pipeline's original €6 billion cost this looks like a mere drop in the ocean.
Recent active political support for the project from the United States ignited the hope that loud words and assurances would be turned into the equally noisy currency of American investment in the pipeline. After all, as a sign of support for EastMed from the United States, the American secretary of state himself, Mike Pompeo was present at a ceremony where the agreement was signed in 2019. But words have remained just words: so far, Washington has not given a cent in co-financing to help the ambitious new project. And experts believe that it will not give any money. It is one thing to declare the necessity of diversifying European gas supplies and speak of European energy security at the peak of Nord Stream 2, but another thing entirely to invest in the risky EastMed. Especially when you have liquefied gas yourself and dream of selling it in Europe. And so Israeli gas will certainly not get by without private investors.
Money loves silence
But a substantial obstacle for attracting investment and moving the project onto a practical footing will inevitably be the situation in the Aegean Sea that flared up seriously in September, when Turkey and Greece sent warships to the region, where conflict had broken out. The pretext for the escalation was exploratory geological works started by Ankara in Greece's exclusive economic zone (EEZ) after major oil and gas deposits were discovered on the Cypriot shelf.
However it was in fact the conclusion of the agreement on constructing EastMed that was the trigger for this situation. Following this, Turkey, which had signed an agreement with Libya on the delimitation of maritime borders, announced that the entire area of the eastern Mediterranean, right up to Libya's EEZ was its own exclusive economic zone. Ankara even began to award licences to companies for extraction at deposits in the region, including the shelves of Crete and Cyprus.
Following France and Germany's active involvement in resolving the conflict, it has been possible to avoid open clashes in the Aegean Sea. But the problem remains that sections of EastMed must go through maritime zones where conclusive agreement on demarcation is still lacking and which as before remain the subject of territorial dispute.
This serious problem is also hindering the linking up of the Aphrodite deposit, located offshore from Cyprus, to EastMed. Turkey has already asserted that Cyprus does not have the right to develop this without taking into account the interests of Northern Cyprus, since the deposits are on the shelf of this unrecognized state. This is not to mention that one should not in any case expect Aphrodite to be linked up to EastMed in the near future: it is at a very early stage of development and much time will be needed for it to reach its planned extraction level of 8 bcm a year.
EastMed very much needs investors, but as a rule, investors are never found where there are political conflicts and territorial disputes. And this project has more than its fair share of these. It is possible that Leviathan will continue to lie helplessly on the sea bed.
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No. 3 Sail Loft/ Lobht nan Seol 3...
The Sail Loft is a grade A listed building, situated on the North Beach, facing the pituresque inner harbour of Stornoways's historic waterfront. Originally built in the 1820's as a warehouse for the storage and repair of nets, it has an architectural quality that belies it's origins, reflecting the importance and prosperity of the fishing industry in the Western Isles in the 18th and 19th centuries.
In 2006 it was converted and restored into 3 luxury townhouses with every effort made to retain original features and combine them with high spec modern home comforts.
No. 3 Sail Loft (or Lobht nan Seol 3 in Gaelic) is cossetted on the end, west facing gable with views to Lews Castle and Cuddy Point, the launch site for many a boating activity! The house has french windows on each of it's 3 floors making the most of the stunning views over the harbour.
3 Sail Loft
Aerial view of Stornoway 2014
View of house across marina
The neighbours!
The Sail Loft in former glory!
Timber at Old Sail Loft - May 1969
Harbour view from castle grounds
Drying socks!


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On the NHS, Sunak and co seem unable to grasp economics 101: pay more | Larry Elliott Economics editor
Before it became the meeting place for the global elite, Davos was known as a place where those suffering from TB came to be treated. Thomas Mann set his story The Magic Mountain in a sanatorium in the small Swiss town and rarely have the links with Davos's literary past seemed more appropriate than now, with the global economy in rehab after a three-year sickness still not shaken off. There have been plenty of relapses since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic.
The first couple of weeks of 2023 have seen a modest improvement in the short-term outlook but that doesn't mean the long-term problems have been cracked. The structural problems facing the global economy – weak investment, poor productivity, the climate emergency, rising inequality, political fragmentation – are still with us.
Klaus Schwab, the man who has been running Davos since the early 1970s, said last week it was time to "develop a longer term, constructive perspective and to shape the future in a more sustainable, more inclusive and more resilient way". And he's right. That is indeed the challenge.
But breaking out of a crisis mindset is not easy, especially in a country such as the UK, which has made a virtue out of busking it, and where the long-term consequences of short-termism are plain to see.
Neither Rishi Sunak nor Jeremy Hunt will be in Davos and it is not hard to see why. The performance of the UK economy has been a tad better (or, more accurately a tad less worse) than expected but they have a country in crisis to deal with at home.
The NHS is on the verge of collapse. Back in the early 1980s, Lindsay Anderson directed Britannia Hospital, a dark comedy in which an under-funded hospital beset by its picketing staff was a satire on the early years of Thatcherism. Forty years on, the film seems eerily prescient.
Excess deaths – a measure of how many more people are dying than normal – in the UK are running at their highest level in 50 years, the pandemic apart. Ambulance waiting times in England are the highest on record, as are the numbers waiting in A&E for more than 12 hours. There are more than seven million people on hospital waiting lists in England. Meanwhile, a study by the King's Fund thinktank found last year the vacancy rate for nurses was running at 12%.
It is currently fashionable to say the NHS's problems are not really anything to do with money, but that argument doesn't stack up. Of course, the NHS could be better managed, but so could plenty of other organisations. Sure, there are other models of healthcare the UK could learn from. But the reason it is hard to attract nursing staff is because the pay of a senior nurse has fallen in real terms by 10% since 2010.
And the reason hospitals are buckling under the strain of surging winter demand is because a decade of austerity is taking its toll. The average increase in spending on the NHS since it was created in 1948 to 2010 was 3.7% a year. In the years between 2001 and 2010 the increase in real-term spending averaged 7% and waiting lists were coming down. Since then it has been 1.4% and lists have been going up again.
It is not just pay that has been squeezed. The UK devotes 0.3% of national income to health capital spending – new hospitals and the kit that goes in them – which is half the level of other high-income nations. The idea that the NHS is a bottomless pit into which governments of left and right have indiscriminately chucked never-ending amounts of taxpayers cash is a myth. The generous funding provided by Tony Blair and Gordon Brown had an impact. The much less generous spending settlements since have also had an impact.
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It has been a similar story with social care. More than a decade ago, the coalition government commissioned a report from Sir Andrew Dilnot that concluded the system was not fit for purpose and required more funding, both from individuals and from the state. The report was never acted on, with the result that there are half a million people waiting for help, more than 150,000 vacancies and hospital beds occupied by people who ought to be in care homes. Again, the solution seems simple: get a plan and provide the necessary long-term investment. Economics 101 says that if you have staff shortages then the solution is to pay more.
Government ministers seem strangely unable to grasp this basic point, which means the NHS will continue to be in crisis – or on the brink of it – no matter what sticking plaster solution the Treasury comes up with in response to a chronic funding crisis. An ageing population and advances in medical treatment mean real-term increases of 3-4% a year are needed to meet the rising costs of care. The fact that health has been treated less severely than other parts of the public sector is neither here nor there. Other services – the justice system, for example – have had it even tougher since 2010, but are less visible.
Sunak knows there is a problem. The public have never entirely trusted the Conservatives with the NHS and remains attached to the idea of a service free at the point of use, even if few would currently describe health care as the envy of the world. Stopping the NHS crisis from being the first item on the news is vital for the prime minister. There is not exactly a whole lot of good news at the moment, but what there is is being drowned out by a crisis that could have been avoided and has been 10 years in the making.
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