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12-29-18	 Notre Dame v. Clemson UNDER 57 3-30 Win 100 22 h 12 m Show
*3 Star Play Under* These are two excellent defenses. Clemson is first in the country in yards per play allowed. Notre Dame ranks eighth in the country in yards per play allowed.
Clemson's defensive line is without one starter here in Dexter Lawrence, but I still expect them to be too much for this Notre Dame offensive front. Notre Dame has been acceptable in pass blocking this year, but they have a very hard task ahead of them to keep the pocket clean here. Clemson's Brent Venables is the best defensive coordinator in the country in my opinion, and I expect this Tigers defense to have a lot of different looks ready. The secondary was good most of the year, though they did have a couple slip ups. I expect them to get a lot of help from the pass rush. It's also important to keep in mind that Ian Book doesn't have much experience, and he hasn't played many good defenses yet. That changes here.
Trevor Lawrence is a really talented quarterback, but he's a freshman and he hasn't faced defensive challenges very often yet. Clemson's run game isn't likely to be able to dominate against this Notre Dame defensive front. Clemson hasn't had a great downfield passing game this year.
Both of these defenses have been excellent at preventing big plays. That can make scoring take a lot longer, and it increases the likelihood of field goals instead of touchdowns.
Two great defensive coordinators here and two very young quarterbacks.
12-27-18	 Miami-FL v. Wisconsin UNDER 48 3-35 Win 100 171 h 41 m Show
*4 Star Play Under* The Miami Hurricanes and Wisconsin Badgers meet in a rematch of last year's bowl game. Wisconsin won that game 34-24 because of a rare great passing game for the offense. Wisconsin will be without Alex Hornibrook for this game due to a concussion. That makes Coan the starting quarterback. He has thrown a lot of very safe short passes in his time under center. There isn't a big threat of the deep ball.
Wisconsin is good at running the ball, but Miami is 11th in the country in yards per carry allowed. The Hurricanes are very strong in the front seven. Taylor will get his yards here, but I don't think they will come as easy as they do in most games. Especially with Miami knowing there isn't much of a passing threat.
Miami's quarterback situation isn't good at all. The Hurricanes have the 112th ranked passing attack in the country. Wisconsin's defense will likely dare Miami to beat them with the passing game.
Both defenses have been good at not giving up big plays. They both rank in the top 30 in the country at preventing explosive plays. Both offensive are in the bottom half of the country at getting explosive plays.
This game is played at Yankee Stadium in late December. The weather could help the under here as well with cold weather and possible winds.
12-23-18	 Steelers v. Saints OVER 52.5 28-31 Win 100 23 h 9 m Show
*3 Star Play Over* The Pittsburgh Steelers and New Orleans Saints haven't scored that many points in recent games, but these are still very good offenses. Pittsburgh throws the ball more than any other team in the NFL. They are throwing the ball on 2/3 of their offensive plays.
The Steelers should be able to take advantage of the Saints secondary. Marshon Lattimore is very good, but the Saints don't have depth in the secondary. They have played some teams recent who haven't been able to take advantage of that weakness, but the Steelers should be able to.
What about Drew Brees and the Saints offense? They have too many weapons to be bad for too long. The Saints are back in the dome and they have put up big numbers here many times in the past.
This total has been pushed down because of recent results, but I see this as a recency bias situation.
Two teams who are very capable of scoring in bunches and scoring quickly on the fast track.
12-23-18	 Vikings v. Lions UNDER 42.5 27-9 Win 100 33 h 24 m Show
*3 Star Play Under* The Minnesota Vikings are looking to run the ball a lot more and have a more conservative offense under their new offensive coordinator. Minnesota is likely to play slower, and with a lot more runs it means a running clock which is clearly good for the under.
Detroit has been running the ball more lately as well. Why? Matt Stafford is banged up badly and is playing behind a very weak offensive line. Minnesota sacked him 10 times when these two teams met a few weeks ago! The Vikings will be in the backfield a lot again in this one.
Detroit has scored 17 points or less in each of their last four games. The Lions are without Kerryon Johnson and that hurts their efficiency in the running game significantly.
Both teams running it a lot and playing slower than the average NFL tempo. I expect a lower scoring game.
12-21-18	 Florida International v. Toledo UNDER 64 35-32 Loss	 -110 92 h 47 m Show
*3 Star Play Under* The weather here looks significant. The current forecast calls for sustained winds of about 28 mph with gusts to 40 or 45 mph during this game. There is also a 50% chance of rain.
That kind of weather changes a game significantly. Most defenses fair much better against the run than they normally do in these conditions. Why? The opposing offense is more predictable.
FIU's offense is all about getting big plays in the passing game. Those will be much harder to come by with this weather.
The FIU defense has done a great job keeping the opposition from breaking big plays. That's important against a Toledo offense that is capable of breaking big plays in the running game.
The pace that these two play at isn't very quick for a total set this high. FIU ranks among the 30 slowest teams in the country. Toledo ranks 49th. Both teams will use a decent amount of time between the snaps.
12-18-18	 Northern Illinois v. UAB UNDER 43 13-37 Loss	 -107 114 h 47 m Show
*3 Star Play Under* The UAB Blazers and Northern Illinois Huskies meet in an early season bowl game in the Boca Raton Bowl. UAB is all about running the football and they take their time between snaps. They can use a bunch of clock getting down the field, and if they are forced to kick a field goal it really helps the under a lot.
Northern Illinois is 129th in the nation in yards per play on offense. The Huskies simply can't do much of anything on offense. Northern Illinois has been up against weak MAC defenses all year, and they still didn't have much success.
On the other hand, Northern Illinois is a great defensive team. They rank third in the nation in yards per carry allowed. That's important since UAB is going to run the ball so often here. Northern Illinois is a tremendous defensive front. They have 50 sacks this year, and they should be in the backfield a bunch.
UAB's defensive front is very aggressive, and Northern Illinois often hurts themselves with big negative plays on first down. UAB can take advantage of that to put them in bad spots.
This looks like a very low scoring contest.
12-16-18	 Seahawks v. 49ers UNDER 44.5 23-26 Loss	 -109 39 h 1 m Show
*4 Star Play Under* The Seattle Seahawks take on the San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers have been a good under team at Levi's Stadium since it opened. The under is 23-14 in their home games since this stadium opened. Divisional home games are 10-4 to the under.
Seattle runs the ball as much as anyone in the NFL. The Seahawks are looking to control the ball and use up a lot of time on offense. It has been working very well.
San Francisco's defense is a very solid 10th in yards per play allowed so far this year. The 49ers offense is certainly limited with so many injuries. Nick Mullens hasn't done a bad job, but he isn't dynamic by any means.
The weather here plays a big factor in my reason for taking this under. The forecast calls for 20 mph winds with gusts to 26 mph during the game. It also calls for rain which could be heavy at times. Rain and wind combined is a big positive for the under. Look for an even more conservative game plan from both teams here, and that helps the defenses know what is coming.
12-16-18	 Bucs v. Ravens UNDER 46.5 12-20 Win 100 60 h 49 m Show
*4 Star Play Under* The Baltimore Ravens have totally changed their offensive game plan. Lamar Jackson is under center and the Ravens are looking to run the ball as much as possible. Most NFL teams are throwing the ball more than 60% of the time, but the Ravens are running it about 65% of the time in their last three games. Gus Edwards is getting a bunch of carries, and that should be the case again here.
Tampa Bay's defense has been much better in recent weeks. The Bucs are far from a great defense, but they aren't as bad as they looked earlier this year. Tampa Bay is a little healthier on the defensive end now than they were earlier this year. Tampa Bay is 20th in yards per play allowed in their last three games compared to 31st for the season. The Bucs are also better at stopping the run than the pass.
Baltimore's defense is easily number one in the league so far this year. The Ravens excel at stopping the pass, and that's what Tampa Bay wants to do here. I don't see Winston and this Bucs offense having much success through the air. Tampa Bay has a really weak ground game as well.
The weather here could be very helpful. Winds of 10-12 mph with rain showers are expected in the game. That should make the offenses more conservative and predictable.
12-15-18	 Browns v. Broncos UNDER 46 17-16 Win 100 43 h 8 m Show
*3 Star Play Under* The Denver Broncos offense wasn't great to start with, but now they are much weaker without Sanders as their primary wide receiver. Case Keenum isn't a terrible quarterback, but he needs weapons around him. He's short on weapons now. Denver can run the football, and I would expect them to run it even more than normal here. That takes more time off the clock.
Cleveland's offense has played very well of late, but they have been up against some very weak defenses. Denver's elite pass rush could pose some problems for the Browns passing game here. Cleveland still is only 18th in yards per play on offense. The Browns have also faced one of the easiest schedules of defensive units so far this year. Mayfield has been good and the Browns offense is much improved, but this is still a tough task for them at Denver at altitude.
These two defenses have both faced a very tough schedule of offensive units this year. I believe these two defenses are better than their numbers look right now.
12-15-18	 Eastern Michigan v. Georgia Southern UNDER 47.5 21-23 Win 100 64 h 41 m Show
*3 Star Play Under* The Georgia Southern Eagles rank 130th in the nation in pace of play. They are using about 33 seconds between plays. Georgia Southern is also running the ball on nearly 85% of their offensive plays. They can use up a ton of time getting down the field.
Eastern Michigan's defense has had a long time to get ready for the option attack of Georgia Southern. That has to be a positive. The more time you have to prepare for a unique offense, the more it helps the defense. Eastern Michigan also did a pretty good job slowing down Army's triple option. Army only averaged 4.0 yards per carry in their win over Eastern Michigan.
Eastern Michigan's offense doesn't have much of a run game at all. They are left to try to throw the ball, but this offensive line is terrible in pass protection. Eastern Michigan often has a hard time recovering from these big negative plays on offense.
A big key to this selection is the ability of both teams to prevent big plays. Georgia Southern allowed only 17 plays of 30 yards or more this year (12th best in the nation). Eastern Michigan allowed only 18 plays of 30 yards or more (20th best in the country).
12-15-18	 Arizona State v. Fresno State UNDER 53.5 20-31 Win 100 61 h 34 m Show
*3 Star Play Under* The Fresno State Bulldogs defense has really impressed me in the last couple seasons. This is a very well-coached unit. Fresno State ranks 19th in yards per play allowed. They also rank as a top 12 defense against the pass.
Arizona State's passing attack takes a big hit with N'Keal Harry sitting this game out. I expect the Sun Devils to rely more on the ground. While they are likely to get some yards here, I don't think it will come all that easy. Fresno State knows the Sun Devils are without their star wideout and they'll be loading up the box more than normal.
The Fresno State offense hasn't been very good running the ball this year. They have been very good throwing the ball, but the Mountain West had some very weak pass defenses this year. I'm not convinced they'll tear up the Arizona State secondary as they have some other teams.
I think Arizona State runs the ball much more than normal here and plays conservatively. Both teams play at a slow tempo as well.
12-15-18	 Tulane v. UL-Lafayette OVER 58 41-24 Win 100 60 h 4 m Show
*4 Star Play Over* The Tulane Green Wave and the Louisiana Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns both have very solid offenses. These are both offenses that rely on the run, but they both get a lot of big gainers on offense as well.
Tulane has a whopping 36 plays of 30 yards or more (14th in the country) this season. Louisiana has been even better with an impressive 40 plays of 30 yards or more. That is ninth best in the country. How are the defenses when it comes to defending explosive plays? These two teams have allowed 34 and 33 plays of 30 yards or more, meaning both of them rank in the bottom 30 in the country in that category. There should be some big plays here.
Tulane found a good playmaker at quarterback in Justin McMillan. He has made good decisions in the option offense, and throws a decent ball as well.
The Ragin' Cajuns defense was consistently allowing a bunch of yards and points this year. They allowed a whopping 6.39 yards per play. They only held one FBS team below 26 points.
The Ragin' Cajuns offense has been great and they are balanced. They put up 42 points or more five times this year.
These are explosive offenses and this isn't a total that is all that high.
12-09-18	 Eagles v. Cowboys OVER 44.5 23-29 Win 100 39 h 20 m Show
*3 Star Play Over* The Philadelphia Eagles offense is better than they were earlier this year. Darren Sproles is still good enough to make some big plays. Golden Tate is a key addition as well. Carson Wentz has more weapons to get the ball to, and with this game played on the fast track at Dallas I see the Eagles throwing for quite a few yards here. While Dallas is excellent against the run, they have been inconsistent against the pass this year.
Dallas is an elite running team with a star running back in Ezekiel Elliot. Adjusted for strength of schedule faced, the Eagles have a bottom five rushing defense in the NFL. Elliot should have a big day here. While the Cowboys passing game isn't very good, they are clearly better with Cooper on the outside, and they have some play action capability at this point.
It was 27-20 earlier this year when these two played. Both offenses are clearly better than they were earlier this season. This one is indoors as well which helps the over quite a bit.
12-09-18	 Colts v. Texans OVER 50 24-21 Loss	 -105 36 h 47 m Show
*3 Star Play Over* Andrew Luck and the Colts offense was averaging 34 points per game in their previous eight games before being shut out last week. I wouldn't expect the Colts to have a dud of an offensive game two weeks in a row. This Texans defense is elite against the run, but they aren't very good against the pass. They have a multitude of injuries in the secondary right now as well, so an already questionable pass defense is even worse. Indianapolis plays at the second fastest tempo of any team in the NFL.
Houston's offense has been much better of late. Watson is looking more like the quarterback we saw last year, and the running game has improved. Houston ranks 8th in tempo, so they'll be pushing the pace as well. The Colts defense is at a disadvantage here against the pass. I don't believe they have enough depth in the secondary to prevent some big plays in the passing game.
The first meeting between these two was 31-31 before overtime. That game was in a dome and this is in a dome as well. We should see a lot of possessions based on the tempo of each team. I see two passing attacks who have an edge vs. the pass defenses.
12-02-18	 Cardinals v. Packers UNDER 44 Top 20-17 Win 100 42 h 26 m Show
*5 Star NFL TOP Total of the YEAR* The Green Bay Packers host the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday afternoon. Arizona ranks dead last in the NFL in yards per play. They have the worst passing attack and the worst running attack. Arizona's offensive line is weak, and Green Bay can really get after the passer.
Arizona isn't bad on defense. The Cardinals are 9th in yards per play allowed in the NFL. They still have a good amount of very talented players on the defensive end. Green Bay's offensive line has struggled to protect Aaron Rodgers, and I see Arizona making it difficult for them.
The weather here is very important. The average of 4 forecasts calls for 34 degrees and 20 mph winds with gusts up to 30 mph. There is also a chance of snow showers during the game (it is likely to be snowy in Green Bay Sunday before this game- and some snow during the game is at least possible). This is a huge plus for the under. It leads to more running and a much more conservative game plan.
Arizona shouldn't be able to score very many at all here. The Packers offense isn't what it once was, and Arizona's defense is better than most realize.
Take the under. TOP Total of the Year. *Be sure to still use wise bankroll management here- this is just a bigger play than most of mine* Thanks and good luck.
12-02-18	 Bears v. Giants UNDER 44 27-30 Loss	 -105 12 h 0 m Show
*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago Bears take on the New York Giants on Sunday afternoon. Chicago is expected to have Chase Daniels under center. Daniels didn't look very good last week under center against Detroit, and the Lions defense is a weak one. I wouldn't count on big things from him here either.
The Giants offense is 11th in yards per play in the NFL, but the Bears rank 2nd in yards per play allowed. The Bears are 19th in yards per play on offense, but I expect the Giants to load the box and dare Daniels to beat them throwing the football.
Both of these teams move slowly. There won't be all that many possessions in this game. The Bears will be running the ball even more than normal, and the Giants want to run more often than they have so far this year as well.
I wouldn't expect many big plays here. Both defensive fronts have an advantage against the offensive line in front of them, and I think there will be more tackles for a loss here than in a normal contest.
12-01-18	 Northwestern v. Ohio State OVER 61 24-45 Win 100 44 h 18 m Show
*3 Star Play Over* The Ohio State Buckeyes offense put on a show last week against Michigan. That was the top ranked defense in the country before Ohio State put up 62 points and more than 500 yards on them last week. Last week wasn't the first week the Buckeyes offense has looked good though. The passing attack is excellent with Dwayne Haskins leading the way. Haskins has a rocket for an arm and he has quite a few good receiving options on the outside. The Buckeyes running game has improved some in recent weeks as well.
Northwestern's offense has improved toward the end of the year. Bowser has given them at least some decent production in the backfield. This is a team that throws it around often though, and they'll throw it around against a weak Ohio State secondary here. Clayton Thorson is a solid quarterback, and I think he'll have a good game here.
Both of these teams push the tempo, so there should be a lot of possessions in this game. Ohio State absolutely needs to win big here and be impressive, so I think they'll have their foot to the floor the whole game. We should see a wide open playbook as the Buckeyes showed last weekend. The Buckeyes defense has been weak all year, and I see Northwestern scoring a decent amount here too.
This game is played on a fast track under a dome in Indianapolis which should help the scoring as well.
12-01-18	 Fresno State v. Boise State UNDER 52.5 19-16 Win 100 30 h 7 m Show
*3 Star Play Under* The Boise State Broncos and Fresno State Bulldogs know each other very well at this point. They played twice last year, and this will be their second meeting this year. The previous three meetings were all won by Boise State with the following scores: 28-17, 17-14, and 24-17. None of those games were even very close to this total.
In a title game, the motivation level should be very high to start with, and you know how badly Fresno has to want to beat Boise State now. The higher the motivation level- long-term it is good for the under.
There is a slight chance of snow showers during this game. If that does come to fruition it helps the under ever so slightly in my opinion.
Boise State's defensive numbers on the year are disappointing for sure, but they have played much better of late. Boise State has a lot of talent on defense, and I think this group is better than the statistics say. Fresno State has an elite defense, and they are great at not giving up big plays.
Both teams play much slower than an average team, and that clearly helps as well.
This one should be a great game, and I like the value here.
12-01-18	 UAB v. Middle Tennessee State UNDER 45 Top 27-25 Loss	 -102 95 h 55 m Show
*5 Star TOP Play Under* This is the Conference USA title game, and we have two well-coached teams here. MTSU beat UAB 27-3 last week, though that game meant very little to UAB.
This is the game that decides the Conference USA title, and I expect a strong effort from both teams.
UAB is a very run-heavy team. The Blazers rank 115th out of 130 teams in the country in tempo as well, so they can really eat up the clock as they move down the field. UAB also has multiple injuries on the offensive line. If those guys play they are going to be less than 100 percent. AJ Erdely the team's starting QB, is dealing with a shoulder injury. He'll likely try to play through the pain.
MTSU's defensive line dominated UAB's offensive line last weekend. The Blue Raiders defensive front has turned into one of the best in the conference.
MTSU's offense is all about the passing game with Brent Stockstill at quarterback. UAB has the best pass defense in the conference. The Blazers are very experienced in the secondary and I expect them to be well-prepared for the Blue Raiders passing attack here.
The weather is a big plus for the under. The average of forecasts now calls for rain and winds of about 16-18 mph for this one. That makes MTSU run the ball more and they aren't efficient there. It should reduce the amount of explosive plays.
12-01-18	 UL-Lafayette v. Appalachian State UNDER 58.5 19-30 Win 100 36 h 56 m Show
*4 Star Play Under* The Appalachian State Mountaineers beat the Louisiana Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns 27-17 at home earlier this year. That was a regular season game, and this is the Sun Belt Conference title game. This game clearly means a lot to both teams.
The Ragin' Cajuns have a great rushing attack, but Appalachian State's defensive front is very good. App State ranks first in the Sun Belt in yards per carry allowed this year. I think they'll do a good job once again against the Louisiana running attack.
Appalachian State has a good offense, but it isn't as dynamic as it was earlier this year. The Mountaineers lost star running back Jalen Moore to an injury, and that hurts the offense quite a bit. Thomas is a good quarterback, but Moore was the star of the show at running back.
Both teams play slowly. Louisiana ranks 87th in tempo and Appalachian State ranks 99th in the country in tempo. Both teams run the ball much more than the average team in the country, so there is a lot of moving clock when they play each other.
The weather here should be a factor. The average of 4 forecasts calls for 42 degrees with 13 mph winds and gusts of 20 mph or slightly higher. All forecasts are calling for a very high chance of rain as well. Cold rain and wind is a clear positive for the under.
11-25-18	 Dolphins v. Colts OVER 50.5 24-27 Win 100 121 h 15 m Show
*4 Star Play Over* With Ryan Tannehill getting back on the field for this one, I like the value on the over.
Andrew Luck and this Indianapolis Colts offense are firing on all cylinders right now. The Colts having a good offensive line and a good running back in Marlon Mack is making a huge difference. The Colts are playing at the fastest pace of any team in the NFL right now as well. Miami's defense ranks 26th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Dolphins are giving up 6.4 yards per play on the road.
The Colts defense is middle of the pack, but they have faced weaker offenses in many recent weeks. Miami does have speed and with Tannehill they have more big play ability.
11-24-18	 Hawaii v. San Diego State UNDER 54.5 31-30 Loss	 -112 26 h 55 m Show
*4 Star Play Under* The San Diego State Aztecs have played 11 games this year. None of them have gone over this total. San Diego State excels at controlling the time of possession, running the play clock down and keeping their defense off the field.
Hawaii is a big play offense, but San Diego State is good when it comes to not giving up big plays. The Hawaii defense has been much stronger against the run in recent weeks, which is important since San Diego State will be running the ball a lot here.
This is a similar type of game to Hawaii/Army earlier in the year. Army runs it better than San Diego State though, and San Diego State has a better defense. I think we see a game in the 40's as San Diego State gets a lead and then runs the ball and eats up a bunch of the clock. Hawaii plays only at an average pace, and San Diego State plays very slowly.
11-24-18	 SMU v. Tulsa UNDER 56.5 24-27 Win 100 39 h 50 m Show
*3 Star Play Under* SMU has to win this game to become bowl eligible. Teams looking to become bowl eligible in their final game of the regular season have been strong trends toward the under. That certainly makes sense to me because as games means more it tends to help the under.
It has surprised me that SMU has actually been better on the defensive end than on offense this year. When Sonny Dykes took over, that isn't what you would expect. However, SMU has been winning games thanks to their defense. SMU's defensive numbers in the conference would make them a top 50 defense in the country.
Tulsa is averaging a brutal 4.26 yards per play in the conference. Remember, this isn't a conference with many good defenses either. Tulsa is just that bad on offense. They have no passing game at all.
SMU is all about the pass. The Mustangs have a very weak running attack. Ben Hicks and the passing game are solid, but Tulsa is much better against the pass than the run on defense.
The weather here helps the under also. Winds of 16 mph with gusts above 20 should make it harder to move the ball through the air.
11-24-18	 UL-Lafayette v. UL-Monroe OVER 68 31-28 Loss	 -110 118 h 21 m Show
*3 Star Play Over* Louisiana Lafayette has a brilliant offense and a weak defense. The Ragin' Cajuns are 11th in the nation in yards per play. They are 107th in the nation in yards per play allowed. This is a team that has a whopping 35 plays of 30 yards or more so far this year.
LA Monroe's offense has been a bit disappointing of late, but they tore up this LA Lafayette defense last year, and I think they'll have a lot of success here too. Monroe has had terrible turnover issues in the red zone this year, and with some normalization of those red zone numbers their offense should improve.
A back and forth high scoring contest.
11-24-18	 Southern Miss v. UTEP UNDER 45.5 39-7 Loss	 -110 118 h 21 m Show
*3 Star Play Under* The UTEP Miners were blasted last week at Western Kentucky. That was primarily because of a ridiculous turnover problem. UTEP's defense has actually gotten a lot better throughout the season. UTEP is doing a good job not giving up big plays. The Miners are 50th best in the country allowing only 46 plays of 20 yards or more on the year. UTEP's yards per play allowed has trended in the right direction inside conference play.
Southern Miss has been great on defense this year. The Golden Eagles are 13th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Southern Miss has allowed only 29 plays of 20 yards or more, which is 5th best in the country.
The weather should play a role here too. Winds of about 20 mph are expected in El Paso for this one.
11-24-18	 Georgia Tech v. Georgia UNDER 61 21-45 Loss	 -116 117 h 41 m Show
*3 Star Play Under* The Georgia Bulldogs take on the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets on Saturday. This is a big rivalry game, and we've seen a bunch of lower scoring games when these two get together.
Georgia Tech couldn't get anything going offensively last year in this matchup. Kirby Smart is a great defensive mind, and I would be surprised if Georgia Tech's triple option attack has a ton of success here. Georgia Tech's passing attack is terrible.
Both teams are very run heavy, and both teams move slowly. In fact, both rank in the bottom 12 in the country in terms of tempo.
A slow pace in a rivalry game with a lot of moving clock- I believe this total is too high.
11-24-18	 Texas Tech v. Baylor OVER 65 24-35 Loss	 -110 116 h 2 m Show
*4 Star Play Over* This number is a case where recency bias has allowed us to get a lower number than we should have on this game. Texas Tech is coming off a really poor offensive outing against Kansas State. The Kansas State secondary is solid though, and it is important to note that there were winds of 20-25 mph in that game. That helped slow down Texas Tech as well.
Baylor is coming off a couple low scoring games, but that was against Iowa State and TCU. Those are great defensive teams that are limited on offense. That isn't the type of opponent Baylor has in this game.
Baylor has allowed 32 plays of 30 yards or more this year. Texas Tech has allowed 33 plays of 30 yards or more this year.
This one is played in AT&T Stadium, which is certainly good for the over.
11-24-18	 Purdue v. Indiana UNDER 65 28-21 Win 100 15 h 16 m Show
*4 Star Play Under* If you just look at these two teams from a statistical standpoint, this total looks about right. If you look at more of the outside factors, this total appears too high. Both of these teams are 5-6 and need a win here to get to a bowl game. The under trends are strong when one team is trying to reach a bowl game, and they are very strong when both teams are attempting to reach a bowl game.
In addition, the forecast calls for winds of 12 or 13 mph. That isn't enough to make a huge difference, but it does have a small effect on the game.
Thirdly, this is a very hard fought rivalry. The winner of this game gets the Old Oaken Bucket. It's one of the best rivalry trophies in sports.
These two badly want to beat each other, and there is a lot on the line. This total has been bet up to where I have to take the under.
11-23-18	 Buffalo v. Bowling Green OVER 58 44-14 Push	 0 93 h 49 m Show
*4 Star Play Over* The Buffalo Bulls have already wrapped up their side of the MAC. That means they can play wide open in this one. Bowling Green has nothing to play for here other than pride. The less the game means to both teams, the more helpful it is to an over in my opinion.
Buffalo's passing attack with Jackson and Johnson are too good for this Bowling Green secondary. Buffalo's defense looked bad last week and I think Bowling Green's uptempo offense can do enough here as well.
Both of these offenses have been bad in the red zone, and I think they are bound to have some positive regression toward the mean as well.
11-23-18	 Nebraska v. Iowa UNDER 53.5 28-31 Loss	 -105 35 h 42 m Show
*3 Star Play Under* Iowa has played some tremendous defense at home this year. The Hawkeyes are giving up 11 points per game at home. Iowa ranks 8th in the nation in yards per play allowed.
Iowa's run defense is a huge area of strength. Iowa ranks third in the nation in rushing defense when adjusted for strength of schedule. Overall, Iowa is allowing only 3.08 ypc. That's important here since Nebraska is a team that relies on running the ball. The Cornhuskers average 5.49 ypc, but I don't see them being able to gash the Hawkeyes defense like they have to many others this year. Iowa's defense has only allowed 23 plays of 20 yards or more all year. That is second best in the country.
Iowa's offense is much better in the passing game than the running game. Iowa is averaging only 3.97 yards per play on the year. Nebraska's secondary has been strong, but their run defense has been susceptible. I'm not sure Iowa has the running game to take advantage of that.
The passing attacks will be impacted by the weather here. The weather calls for steady light rain and 15 mph winds with gusts to 25 mph during this game. That's a clear plus for the under.
11-22-18	 Falcons v. Saints OVER 59.5 17-31 Loss	 -109 23 h 31 m Show
*3 Star Play Over* The New Orleans Saints have been putting up amazing offensive numbers this year. They have gotten better as the year goes along. Drew Brees is playing fantastic football right now, and his wideouts are excellent. It also helps that the Saints offensive line is tremendous in pass protection.
The Falcons rank 27th in pass defense when adjusted for strength of schedule. Brees torched this Atlanta defense the first time they met, and I think he'll do it again here. The Falcons secondary is more banged up than it was the first time these two played this year.
Atlanta still has a very good passing attack, and the one weakness of this Saints team is their pass defense. New Orleans ranks 28th in pass defense when adjusted for strength of schedule. The Saints pass rush is below average as well. Matt Ryan should be able to have another big day. He threw for 5 touchdowns and no picks in the first meeting.
This is a high total, but today's NFL is quite a bit different than it was a few years ago. The offenses have the upper hand based on the rules.
This one is played on the fast track in New Orleans. I expect a high scoring contest.
11-22-18	 Colorado State v. Air Force OVER 58 19-27 Loss	 -112 73 h 31 m Show
*4 Star Play Over* The Air Force triple option is hard to prepare for any time, but when you have a short week like Colorado State does here, it is especially difficult. Colorado State ranks 124th in the country in yards per play allowed. This is a defense that has struggled badly all season.
Collin Hill has done a decent job leading this offense since taking over at quarterback. Colorado State will throw it a lot, and Air Force's clear weakness on defense is their secondary. Air Force is 120th in the nation in yards allowed per pass attempt.
The weather looks fine for this one and I see both offenses moving the ball a lot.
11-17-18	 Ole Miss v. Vanderbilt OVER 67 29-36 Loss	 -111 43 h 6 m Show
*3 Star Play Over* The Vanderbilt Commodores host the Ole Miss Rebels on Saturday. Ole Miss has been able to turn just about all of their games into shootouts with their elite offense and very weak defense.
Ole Miss has been so successful this year because they are a big play offense. Ole Miss has a whopping 48 plays of 30 yards or more on offense this year. That's because Jordan Ta'amu has a good deep ball, and Ole Miss has the best group of receivers in the SEC.
Vanderbilt's offense has been better than most expected this year. Shurmur has been playing well at quarterback, and the Commodores still have a decent running game. Ole Miss has allowed 31 plays of 30 yards or longer, which is the 15th most in the nation.
Both teams air it out a lot, which helps since the incompletions also stop the clock. Ole Miss won 57-35 when these two played last year. I wouldn't expect that many points here, but I do think another back and forth affair is coming.
11-17-18	 Connecticut v. East Carolina OVER 65 21-55 Win 100 122 h 20 m Show
*4 Star Over* East Carolina ranks fifth in the nation in pace of play. The Pirates are going to keep playing really fast. East Carolina's offense hasn't been efficient this year though. Holton Ahlers is a guy the coaching staff is high on, and I expect him to improve over time. Ahlers will get a great chance here against a hapless defense.
The Pirates offense has been inefficient this year, but they are up against a UConn Huskies defense that is historically bad. UConn is allowing 8.88 yards per play (easily last in the country). Have they gotten better in conference play? Nope. They are allowing an even worse 9.26 yards per play in the AAC. They have allowed a mind-boggling 89 plays of 20 yards or more this year.
The East Carolina defense has gotten worse as the season has gone along. The Pirates have allowed 26 plays of 30 yards or more. UConn's offense is middle of the road, but with a lot of possessions in this one they should put up enough in this situation.
Both offenses have had some bad luck in the red zone- which suggests that positive regression could be on the way especially when facing a weak defense.
11-17-18	 Air Force v. Wyoming UNDER 42.5 27-35 Loss	 -110 42 h 37 m Show
*3 Star Play Under* Air Force and Wyoming have both been a bit questionable on defense against the pass this year, but both of these teams excel at stopping the run. That works out for this selection since both offenses are virtually unable to throw the ball.
Air Force has the 71st best rushing attack (ypc) in the country this year when adjusted for strength of schedule played. Wyoming ranks 17th at stopping the run.
Wyoming has the 47th best rushing attack (ypc) in the country when adjusted for strength of schedule played. Air Force ranks 24th at stopping the run.
Both of these teams are much slower than the average team in terms of tempo.
The weather forecast calls for 19 degrees with winds of 12-14 mph and about 4 inches of snow on Saturday. These conditions clearly help the under.
11-17-18	 UL-Monroe v. Arkansas State OVER 64.5 Top 17-31 Loss	 -114 118 h 53 m Show
*5 Star Play Top Over* The Arkansas State Red Wolves and UL Monroe Warhawks meet this Saturday and I expect a lot of points here.
Arkansas State and ULM rank first and second in the Sun Belt in tempo. There will be a bunch of possessions in this game. Both teams are big play offenses and both defenses have given up a lot of big plays throughout the season.
The strength of the ULM offense is their rushing attack. They are 39th in the nation in yards per carry. Arkansas State's biggest defensive weakness is against the run. Arkansas State has a big edge in the passing game against a terrible ULM secondary.
Last year these teams played to a 67-50 final score. Arkansas State had 781 yards compared to 590 for ULM.
Ironically, both of these teams have scored 38 and 44 points in their last two games leading into this one. The offenses are clicking right now and the offenses should have the upper hand all the way in this one.
Take the over. Top Rated Play.
11-17-18	 Northwestern v. Minnesota OVER 47 24-14 Loss	 -110 18 h 26 m Show
*3 Star Play Over* This line has dropped four points during the week, and it is low enough now that I am going to take the over. Northwestern ranks 30th in the nation in tempo. The Wildcats have locked up the Big Ten West. I would expect them to continue to play hard for Pat Fitzgerald though.
There might have been some concerns about the weather from some, but the only real concern here is the cold temperature. A temperature around 23 degrees is expected, but winds of just 6 or 7 mph are in the forecast. In the past 10 years, games with a temperature of 30 degrees or lower and less than 10 mph winds have cashed to the over at a 58.5% rate.
Minnesota's defense is allowing a whopping 7.22 yards per play in the Big Ten. Northwestern's offense isn't very good, but they play fast and should be able to improve on their numbers from the year against this really weak defense. Minnesota's secondary has been very weak since Antoine Winfield Jr. has been out with an injury.
The Minnesota offense has been much better since Morgan started playing at QB. Minnesota is averaging 34.5 points per game in their last four contests.
11-10-18	 Southern Miss v. UAB UNDER 47.5 23-26 Loss	 -110 39 h 26 m Show
*4 Star Play Under* UAB ranks 8th in the country in yards per play allowed. Southern Miss ranks 16th in yards per play allowed. Both of these defenses are much improved from a year ago. Both offenses play much slower than the average team. UAB is favored here and is likely to be winning and running the clock and taking their time in the second half.
Southern Miss has very little running game and UAB has a tremendous secondary. I think Southern Miss will have a lot of trouble scoring here.
UAB and Southern Miss are both very good at not giving up big chunks of yardage. There should be a lot of moving clock here and a limited amount of big plays.
11-10-18	 Arkansas State v. Coastal Carolina OVER 60.5 44-16 Loss	 -102 24 h 12 m Show
*3 Star Play on Over* The Arkansas State Red Wolves are the fastest paced team in the Sun Belt. They have a veteran quarterback and the best wide receivers in the conference. Coastal Carolina's defense has been extremely weak all year. Coastal Carolina is allowing a whopping 8.48 yards per play in the Sun Belt. That's easily worst in the league. Coastal Carolina is worst in both pass defense and run defense in the league.
Coastal Carolina's triple option should be able to move the ball against a weak Arkansas State run defense. The Red Wolves are allowing 5.52 yards per carry in the conference. Coastal Carolina is 34th in the nation in yards per play.
Arkansas State has allowed 28 plays of 30 yards or more this year. Coastal Carolina has allowed 30 plays of 30 yards or more. These are both among the worst in the nation. I see a lot of explosive plays back and forth here.
11-10-18	 Mississippi State v. Alabama UNDER 54 0-24 Win 100 35 h 21 m Show
*3 Star Play Under* This Alabama offense is tremendous, but Mississippi State clearly has the best defense they have faced so far this year. LSU ranks 39th in yards per play allowed. Mississippi State ranks 5th in yards per play allowed. Alabama will get their points here, but I think it will be tougher than it normally has for them this season.
Mississippi State's Nick Fitzgerald hasn't proven he is capable of doing much of anything through the air against any quality defenses this year. Alabama will load up the box and force him to beat them through the air. While Alabama's defensive stats don't look amazing compared to some years, when they are in a closer game where they are focused like we saw last week against LSU this unit is elite.
Both teams play very slow. Mississippi State ranks 110th in pace of play and Alabama ranks 91st. A lot of running from both teams here helps the clock keep moving.
Alabama is less likely to be fully motivated and that lowers the odds of them running up the score here. They wanted to prove a point last week and they proved that point in Baton Rouge.
11-10-18	 Charlotte v. Marshall UNDER 45.5 13-30 Win 100 119 h 42 m Show
*4 Star Play Under* The Charlotte 49ers have changed the way they play this year. Charlotte was a fast paced team with a weak defense in the past. Now, the defense is the strength of this team and they are slowing things down and running the ball as much as possible to stay in the game. It has helped them stay competitive. They only allowed 7 points on defense against Tennessee last week.
Marshall has the best defense in Conference USA, and it would surprise me quite a bit if Charlotte is able to do much of anything on offense in this game. Marshall beat Charlotte 14-3 last year on the road.
I expect another low scoring game.
11-10-18	 Troy v. Georgia Southern UNDER 50.5 Top 35-21 Loss	 -113 117 h 34 m Show
*5 Star Top Play Under* Troy has the best run defense in the Sun Belt Conference. Georgia Southern is going to run the ball consistently with their triple option attack. I expect Troy to be much better at stopping it than a normal team. Georgia Southern plays at the slowest pace of anyone in the country as well. A lot of moving clock and long drives. If they are doing anything other than scoring a touchdown it is helping the under.
The Troy Trojans offense is a lot less explosive now that they are starting their backup quarterback. Troy has had some very low scoring games of late, and I think this one will trend the same way.
11-10-18	 BYU v. UMass OVER 55.5 35-16 Loss	 -110 116 h 41 m Show
*4 Star Play Over * The UMass defense is extremely weak. How bad are they? They are 117th in the nation in yards per play allowed. They are 121st in yards per carry allowed. UMass still pushes the pace on offense. They rank 28th in tempo in the country.
I've been impressed by Ross Comis' play at quarterback. He hasn't been the big step down from Andrew Ford that I expected him to be. The Minutemen have continued to be excellent on offense.
BYU's offense hasn't played a defense this weak so far this season, and I expect them to break a lot of big gainers.
11-10-18	 Ohio State v. Michigan State UNDER 52 26-6 Win 100 37 h 40 m Show
*4 Star Play Under* The Ohio State Buckeyes have a good passing attack. Their problem has been an inability to run the football. Ohio State is 57th in the nation in yards per carry this year. Inside the Big Ten, Ohio State is averaging only 3.66 yards per carry in Big Ten play. Their offensive line has struggled in a big way. Michigan State ranks third in the nation in yards per carry allowed. Michigan State just held Maryland to 0.9 yards per carry last game. That's important because before that game Maryland had been the best rushing attack in the Big Ten.
Ohio State's secondary has been a major problem this year, but I don't think Michigan State has the weapons needed to shred this secondary like some other opponents have. The Spartans are badly banged up at wide receiver. Michigan State will try to slow the game down as they always do.
The weather here should play a role in this game. The weather forecast calls for winds of 18-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. There is even a chance for some wind-blown snow showers in this one. That should limit Ohio State's passing attack and make both offenses more predictable.
11-04-18	 Rams v. Saints OVER 57 35-45 Win 100 14 h 7 m Show
*4 Star Play Over* The Los Angeles Rams offense has all sorts of weapons. Cooper Kupp is now back in the fold, and he's been a great fit for this offensive system. Jared Goff is playing with all sorts of confidence right now.
The Rams are 4th in the NFL in yards per play, and their offense is healthier this week. The Rams have a top three passing attack in the NFL, and they are up against a very weak secondary in the Saints. Eli Apple has been a major liability for this Saints secondary since coming over, and the Rams have the guys to take advantage of his weakness in coverage. The Saints are without Marcus Davenport as well, and he's a big loss as they try to rush the passer and disrupt the Rams rhythm. Look for Jared Goff and company to have a lot of success through the air here.
The Rams also have arguably the best running back in the NFL in Todd Gurley. The Saints have a good run defense, but they can't be as aggressive against the run as they normally are in this one.
The New Orleans Saints offense ranks 8th in the NFL in yards per play. Drew Brees can still sling it around, and he leads a very balanced attack. Kamara is a complete player who fits brilliantly in the system. The Saints have multiple very good route runners at wide receiver. If they need to run with power, the Rams defense ranks 26th against the run so far this year.
New Orleans is excellent on offense in general, but they are elite offensively in the Superdome.
Both teams prefer to play quickly, and I see a back and forth high scoring game here.
11-04-18	 Bucs v. Panthers OVER 54.5 28-42 Win 100 34 h 16 m Show
*3 Star Play Over* The Tampa Bay Bucs offense has been a lot better with Ryan Fitzpatrick out there than Jameis Winston so far this year. Tampa Bay ranks third in the NFL in yards per play. They are very explosive with a deep ball threat from Jackson on the outside and Evans is one of the best receivers in the NFL as well. The Panthers secondary ranks in the bottom 10 in the NFL in pass defense.
Carolina ranks first in rushing offense when adjusted for strength of schedule faced. The Bucs defense is below average against the run, and they are dead last in pass defense. Cam Newton is starting to play better, and he Tampa Bay's defense is badly banged up now.
Both quarterbacks are capable of big plays both ways. Fitzpatrick and Newton are prone to pick-sixes and/or big gainers. That helps the over significantly. The Panthers are a pretty big favorite here, and Tampa Bay showed last week how quick they can put up points late in a game where they are behind and the opposition is playing a prevent defense.
11-04-18	 Steelers v. Ravens UNDER 47 23-16 Win 100 34 h 16 m Show
*4 Star Play Under* The AFC North has been a tremendous division to bet the under in the past decade. The under is 59-34 (63.4% wins) in an AFC North contest with a total of 41 or higher. This is a hard hitting division where the teams know each other very well and the defenses typically have the upper hand.
The Steelers defense looked very weak in the first couple games of the year, but they are now all the way up to 8th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. Baltimore is 1st in yards per play allowed.
Pittsburgh's offense is 6th in yards per play, while Baltimore is only 27th. The Steelers have been much worse offensively on the road the last few seasons though.
The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two in Pittsburgh. This is a game that means a bunch to both teams and I think this number is several points too high.
11-03-18	 USC v. Oregon State OVER 61.5 38-21 Loss	 -105 31 h 30 m Show
*3 Star Play Over* The USC Trojans have a new play caller in this game (Clay Helton) and they get to go against the weakest defense in the Pac 12. In fact, Oregon State ranks 127th out of 130 teams in the country in yards per play allowed. USC is expected to get JT Daniels back for this game, and the USC passing game has a huge advantage here. USC's receivers should have a big day with a lot of open space and height advantages for them over the DB's. Oregon State is allowing a whopping 8.2 yards per play in Pac 12 action this season.
USC's defense has disappointed this year. Oregon State's offense has been much better than expected this season. Jake Luton came back last week for Oregon State and he threw for more than 300 yards against Colorado despite not playing any the first half. He gives the team a much better quarterback now. Look for Oregon State to get some big plays on offense as well. USC is without star linebacker Porter Gustin.
11-03-18	 Tulane v. South Florida OVER 58.5 41-15 Loss	 -110 117 h 18 m Show
*4 Star Play Over* Tulane is all about running the football, and that's a good thing against this USF defense. USF has a good secondary, but they are weak in the front seven. USF ranks 103rd in yards per carry allowed. Tulane's offense ranks 42nd in the nation in rushing offense when adjusted for strength of schedule faced. Look for Tulane to run the ball early and often in this option offense and get some big gainers here.
South Florida's offense plays at a very quick tempo. The Bulls rank 8th in the nation in pace of play. They are up against a Tulane defense that ranks 81st in defensive yards per play when adjusted for strength of schedule faced. The Bulls should be able to move the ball well here. USF has a lot of speed on offense, and that should be hard for Tulane to defend.
11-03-18	 Liberty v. UMass UNDER 70.5 59-62 Loss	 -105 25 h 45 m Show
*4 Star Play Under* UMass was involved in a low scoring game against UConn due to the weather last week. They are going to be involved in another game with pretty extreme weather here, and I have to take under this high of a number.
The average forecast for this game calls for sustained winds of about 20 mph with gusts to 55 or 60 mph. That kind of weather completely changes the game. In fact, 20 mph sustained winds have made the under hit at a little over 63% in CFB in the long term. In this one we get sustained winds of that amount and some ridiculous gusts.
While neither defense is good- it is important to note that UMass is without star quarterback Andrew Ford. Also, both of these teams are much worse running the football than throwing it. If the weather forecasts are right, they'll have to run it more here.
11-03-18	 South Carolina v. Ole Miss OVER 65 48-44 Win 100 114 h 42 m Show
*3 Star Play Over* The Ole Miss Rebels have a way of making everything high scoring. This is a really explosive offense with Jordan Ta'amu at the helm, but they also might have the worst defense in the SEC.
South Carolina has moved to an uptempo offense. Both of these teams rank in the top 25 in the country in terms of pace of play. That will mean a bunch of possessions for both offenses, and Ole Miss games have a lot of big plays both ways because of their strong offense and weak defense.
The SEC doesn't normally see these shootouts, so the oddsmakers kept the total a little too low here.
11-03-18	 Texas A&M v. Auburn UNDER 49 24-28 Loss	 -108 42 h 17 m Show
*4 Star Play Under* Texas A&M and Auburn meet on Saturday afternoon. Auburn has been a great under team so far this year, and I don't see that changing here.
Texas A&M ranks 112th in the nation in tempo. The Aggies are trying to establish a run game more with Jimbo Fisher as their head coach. The problem for them here is Auburn's defensive line is tremendous, and they should get into the backfield often.
Auburn's offensive line is a major problem, and Texas A&M has been strong on the defensive front this year. Stidham isn't playing with any confidence.
Auburn has forced every game this year into a low scoring battle, and Texas A&M wants a physical low scoring game as well. The styles of these teams should lead to a tight low scoring game.
11-03-18	 Syracuse v. Wake Forest OVER 75.5 41-24 Loss	 -108 34 h 57 m Show
*4 Star Play Over* A lot of tempo should be expected here. These two teams rank 5th and 2nd out of 130 teams in the nation in terms of tempo.
Wake Forest's running game is the strength of their offense, and that is where they have a big edge here. Wake Forest's rushing attack ranks 24th in the nation compared to the Syracuse run defense of 87th.
Syracuse is a balanced offense, and this Wake Forest defense has been very weak against both passing and running teams this year. Wake Forest is 115th in the nation in yards per play allowed.
The Syracuse defense is one that I have singled out as in line for regression especially since they have been very fortunate on third down so far this year.
Last year when these two teams met the final score was 64-43.
11-03-18	 Michigan State v. Maryland UNDER 46.5 24-3 Win 100 34 h 57 m Show
*4 Star Play Under* The Maryland Terrapins offense is all about the running game. Maryland ranks third in the country in yards per carry this year, but they played a relatively soft schedule. Maryland still ranks 11th in rushing offense when adjusted for strength of schedule played, but Michigan State's defense ranks 7th in rushing defense. The Spartans aren't likely to let Maryland just run the ball consistently. Maryland hasn't proven capable of moving it through the air against anyone decent this season.
Michigan State's offense is very weak right now. Their top two wide receivers from before the year are both out now. The Spartans rank 125th in the nation in yards per carry on offense. Maryland's defense ranks 27th in yards per play allowed so far this year.
Michigan State always plays slowly under Mark Dantonio, and Maryland is playing very slowly this year. In fact, Maryland's tempo in Big Ten play alone would rank them among the ten slowest paced teams in the entire country.
The weather here is an added bonus. The average of 5 different forecasts I reviewed is 16 mph winds with gusts to 25 mph. That is enough to slow the passing games down some more.
10-30-18	 Kent State v. Bowling Green UNDER 68 35-28 Win 100 5 h 18 m Show
*3 Star Play Under* This is a bunch of points for a game between two teams with bad offenses. Bowling Green is 98th in the nation in yards per play. Kent State is 108th in the nation in yards per play.
Both of these teams are very weak on defense, and that's why this game has gotten bet up, but I see another key factor in this game. The forecast calls for winds of 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph as the game moves on. That's a lot of wind for this high of a total. In the long run games with winds of 15 mph or greater in NCAA FB have gone under the total at about 57%.
Bowling Green slowed their tempo down in their first game under Pelini as head coach as well. The Falcons are likely to continue to play a bit slower now, and I would expect some more running the football.
With the wind and this high of a total, I have to play the under.
10-28-18	 Saints v. Vikings OVER 52 30-20 Loss	 -108 52 h 46 m Show
*4 Star Play Over* The New Orleans Saints are clearly a better offense in the dome, and they get to play a road game in another dome here. Drew Brees is as solid as ever, and he has some great weapons around him. Brees and the Saints offense have a clear advantage over a Vikings secondary that is very banged up. Adjusted for strength of schedule, I have the Vikings as the 22nd best pass defense in the NFL thus far. Xavier Rhodes might try to play here, but he is less than 100 percent.
The Vikings are airing it out on offense this year. They are throwing on nearly 67% of their offensive plays. Adjusted for strength of schedule played- the Saints have the 29th best pass defense. Kirk Cousins has some elite receivers and they should be able to get open and create big plays in the passing game.
Two teams who like to throw it around against subpar pass defenses.
The over is 5-0 in the Vikings last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 6-0-1 in the last 7 meetings between these two in Minnesota. An 11-0 angle.
10-28-18	 Jets v. Bears UNDER 44 10-24 Win 100 40 h 26 m Show
*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago Bears host the New York Jets on Sunday afternoon. This game will be played in some major wind by Lake Michigan at Soldier Field. Taking an average forecast from 5 different weather sources- the wind is expected to be about 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph during the game as well. That's the type of wind that can change the way a game is played.
The Jets offense is very shorthanded right now with Bilal Powell out. He's a key player both in the running game and in the passing game (and pass blocking). Sam Darnold has been good this year, but he's without Powell and 2 starting wide receivers as well. The Bears have a good pass rush, and I think it will be hard for New York to move the ball consistently here.
The Bears offense must rely heavily on the run game because Mitchell Trubisky just isn't good enough to rely on consistently. The strength of the Jets defense is the run defense though. New York ranks 6th in the NFL in rushing defense when adjusted for strength of schedule.
Both teams play at a pace slightly slower than average in the NFL. With both teams being forced to play conservatively and key offensive players missing- I like this one to stay low scoring in the wind.
10-28-18	 Ravens v. Panthers UNDER 44 21-36 Loss	 -104 36 h 12 m Show
*4 Star Play Under* The Carolina Panthers host the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday afternoon. Baltimore ranks first in the NFL in yards per play allowed. This Ravens defense has no clear weaknesses. They are very good against both the run and pass, and they have a good pass rush.
Carolina is an elite rushing team, but they haven't been good throwing the ball this year. Baltimore has a top three run defense in the NFL. Carolina has only faced one top run defense this year (Dallas), and they struggled mightily with them in a 16-8 win.
The Baltimore offense ranks 28th in the NFL in yards per play. That isn't good to start with, but it is especially weak when you realize they have played quite a few mediocre or worse defenses. The Baltimore running game is non-existent.
I see this as a hard hitting contest that stays close and low scoring.
10-28-18	 Eagles v. Jaguars UNDER 43.5 24-18 Win 100 40 h 6 m Show
*4 Star Play Under* Blake Bortles has been a mess and this Jaguars offense is without their star running back Leonard Fournette. Jacksonville has scored 7 points or less in 3 of their last 5 games. I don't trust this offense one bit.
Jacksonville's defense is still excellent. Adjusted for strength of schedule played I have the Jaguars as the best pass defense in the NFL. They have a good pass rush as well, and I think they'll make life tough on Wentz in this one.
The Eagles offense ranks 26th in yards per play on the season. That is despite playing only the 26th toughest schedule in the NFL this season. The Eagles struggle in pass protection, and that's a problem in this matchup.
The weather could play a role here. Winds of about 15 mph are expected and there is a 25% chance of rain. It isn't the primary reason I took this under, but it's a nice bonus.
10-27-18	 NC State v. Syracuse OVER 61 41-51 Win 100 122 h 3 m Show
*4 Star Play Over* The Syracuse Orange have two very good quarterbacks. NC State's defense isn't as good as their statistics would suggest. NC State's defense was exposed last week against Clemson, and I expect them to struggle the rest of the way. NC State's secondary is no better than mediocre, and they can be beaten deep by good wide receivers.
The Syracuse defense is in line for some major regression to the mean. Syracuse is only allowing opponents to convert on 24.76% on 3rd down. That isn't going to continue. Syracuse ranks 83rd in yards per play overall and 96th in ypc allowed. Why would a defense that can't stop the run be good on third downs? It's a perfect setup for regression and many more points allowed going forward for Syracuse.
10-27-18	 Arkansas State v. UL-Lafayette OVER 65.5 43-47 Win 100 122 h 45 m Show
*4 Star Play Over* Arkansas State's offense was disappointing in the non-conference, but they are going to score a bunch of points in the Sun Belt. The Red Wolves have the best quarterback in the conference in Hansen and they have a great group of wide receivers. Arkansas State also ranks 32nd in the nation in tempo.
Louisiana-Lafayette ranks 14th in the nation in yards per play. The Ragin' Cajuns have some really talented skill position players, and they have been an explosive plays machine. Louisiana has 24 plays of 30 yards or more which is 11th most in the country.
Both Arkansas State and Louisiana are playing faster inside the Sun Belt than they were in non-conference contests. Arkansas State is 100th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Louisiana is 121st in the nation in yards per play allowed. Fast-paced and big plays back and forth.
10-27-18	 Washington v. California UNDER 45 10-12 Win 100 41 h 16 m Show
*3 Star Play Under* The Cal Golden Bears defense has been very good this year. Cal ranks 18th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Cal is allowing opponents to convert on only 31.78% of their 3rd downs this year. The Bears should be able to slow down a Washington offense that isn't quite as dynamic as it was a couple years ago.
Jake Browning's quarterback play has been very poor for Washington this year. They have scored TD's on only 51% of their trips into the red zone, and much of that has to do with Browning's poor decision making.
Cal's offense has been a mess all year. The Bears have turned the ball over 20 times this season. Cal doesn't have any explosiveness either. Cal only has 7 plays of 30 yards or more all season, which is in the bottom 5 in the country.
As far as tempo- both teams have slowed their pace of play inside the conference. Chris Petersen has shown that he will play things conservatively if Washington gets a lead, and they are a double digit favorite here.
This is a low total, but Washington has already played 3 games that have stayed under this total. Cal has played 4 games that have stayed under this number.
10-27-18	 South Florida v. Houston OVER 72 36-57 Win 100 118 h 16 m Show
*4 Star Play Over* Houston ranks first in the nation in tempo. South Florida ranks seventh in the nation in tempo. Briles is a great offensive mind, and Houston's offense is firing on all cylinders right now. Houston hasn't scored less than 41 points in a game all year. The Cougars are averaging 48.7 points per game this year.
Houston has a very good running game. The Cougars are averaging 6.16 ypc this year. Houston is far better in the running game than most people realize. Why is that important? The way to beat South Florida's defense is on the ground with explosive runs. Houston should be able to do just that.
South Florida is averaging 35.6 points per game this year. The Bulls have a lot of potential on the offensive end.
These are two very explosive offenses. Houston has 26 plays of 30 yards or more this year. South Florida has 24 plays of 30 yards or more.
Tons of tempo and a high scoring contest.
10-27-18	 Oregon State v. Colorado UNDER 62.5 41-34 Loss	 -108 38 h 47 m Show
*3 Star Play Under* The Colorado Buffaloes are likely to either be without Laviska Shenault this weekend or he will be limited. Colorado needs Shenault healthy for later in the season because they are still in the Pac 12 South race. I would be surprised if they want to risk him playing with his turf toe injury in this one.
Oregon State is easily the worst team in the Pac 12. The Beavers are likely to be starting their third string quarterback (Colletto) in this one. Their first two quarterbacks are both injured. Colletto is seen as more of a runner, and his passing accuracy is a big question mark. Oregon State is averaging only 4.65 yards per play in Pac 12 action.
Colorado's offense isn't even close to the same without Shenault. They can and will score quite a few on Oregon State, but they aren't nearly as explosive. Colorado will likely eat up more time in the process of scoring. Additionally, Mike MacIntyre isn't a guy who has typically run up the score on opponents.
Both teams are playing significantly slower in recent weeks, likely because of their offensive injuries to key players.
The wind will be a factor here. Sustained winds of 15 mph with gusts to 26 mph are forecast during this game.
10-21-18	 Cowboys v. Redskins UNDER 41.5 17-20 Win 100 42 h 49 m Show
*3 Star Redskins/Cowboys CASH* The Washington Redskins and Dallas Cowboys meet in what is always a hard fought rivalry contest. Dallas has been playing much better football of late, and Washington is coming off a nice win over Carolina last weekend.
The Dallas defense is the strongest unit on either team. Dallas has been very good on defense all year, and now they get Sean Lee back after he has been out with an injury the last couple weeks. This Cowboys defense is pretty good without Lee this year, but they are elite with him on the field. Lee is one of the most important defenders in the NFL. Dallas ranks 5th in the NFL in yards per play allowed overall this year.
Washington's defense has been solid this year as well. The Redskins gave up a lot to New Orleans in the Superdome, but other than that this unit has been very good. Washington is 8th in the NFL in yards per play allowed this season.
Dallas is 25th in yards per play on offense. Washington is 26th in offensive yards per play. These two offenses haven't been consistent at all. Washington has major injury issues on the offensive line, and Dallas should be in the backfield a lot here.
Dallas' passing game isn't good enough, and they rely very heavily on Ezekiel Elliot.
The wind forecast in this game is 15-25 mph early in the game and 12-16 mph by the end of the game. That's plenty to make the teams more conservative. I expect a lot of running clock and a low scoring contest here.
10-21-18	 Saints v. Ravens UNDER 50 24-23 Win 100 109 h 8 m Show
*4 Star Play Under* The Baltimore Ravens have the top defense in the NFL so far this year. Baltimore is allowing only 4.4 yards per play so far this season. The Ravens defense excels at pressuring the quarterback, as the Titans found out the hard way last weekend.
This New Orleans offense is clearly very good. Still, the Saints are dealing with the best defense they have played this year. They are also away from the friendly confines of the Superdome. This one will be played on grass in Baltimore in chilly weather. That makes a big difference.
Baltimore's offense hasn't been able to run the ball at all. That allows opponents to get after the passer and the Ravens are too one-dimensional to be a good offense in the NFL.
A big key here is the weather. Across the board the forecasts are for winds around 15 mph with gusts to 20 mph. Simply betting high totals in windy games is a great way to make money betting the NFL in the long run. The chilly weather and the grass is a negative for the Saints offense as well.
If the wind is especially bad here, it makes both teams run the ball even more, and that takes away the strengths of these two offenses.
When the total is 47 or higher and the wind is 9 mph or more in New Orleans road games- the under is 10-1 in the last 11 contests. This one fits this system.
10-21-18	 Lions v. Dolphins OVER 46.5 32-21 Win 100 39 h 32 m Show
*3 Star Play on Over* Detroit's defense hasn't been impressive at all this year. Detroit has allowed 23 points or more in 4 of their first 5 games. The Lions are 26th in the NFL in yards per play allowed at 6.0.
The Miami Dolphins have a lot of speed on offense. Brock Osweiler will be starting at quarterback again this week. I'm certainly not a big fan of his, but he has some really good speed on the outside, and the Lions lack top end speed in the secondary.
The Miami defense ranks 23rd in the NFL in yards per play allowed. Cameron Wake is questionable for this game, and he is arguably their best defender.
Detroit is a very pass-heavy offense, and Miami's pass defense ranks in the bottom 5 in the NFL in all major pass defense categories. Matt Stafford should be able to air it out on this defense.
Helping both offenses is the referee crew. Jerome Bogers' crew will be doing this game. This crew is famous for lots of holding and pass interference penalties on the defense. The over is 90-64 in this crew's 154 games.
Two bad defenses and offenses with big play ability.
10-20-18	 Texas State v. UL-Monroe OVER 59 14-20 Loss	 -105 122 h 46 m Show
*4 Star Play Over* The UL Monroe Warhawks are a great over team. UL Monroe is one of the worst defenses in the nation. They are 126th in the nation in yards per play allowed. The Warhawks have what is arguably the worst pass defense in the nation.
Texas State is mediocre defensively. The Bobcats offense is a weakness, but they have shown some very positive signs in recent weeks in the passing game, and I think they will be able to get it going against this UL Monroe pass defense. Texas State has scored 31 points or more in 3 of their last 5 games.
UL Monroe's offense should light up the scoreboard in the Sun Belt. Monroe has underachieved on offense so far this year. The Warhawks have only scored on 65% of their red zone trips, and they have turned the ball over 13 times. They just posted 45 points on Coastal Carolina and they will score a lot in this conference.
UL Monroe pushes the pace and I think they are likely to have the lead. That forces Texas State to keep the tempo going too.
10-20-18	 Memphis v. Missouri UNDER 74.5 33-65 Loss	 -110 45 h 59 m Show
*3 Star Play Under* The Missouri Tigers host the Memphis Tigers in a non-conference game on Saturday. Both of these teams play relatively quickly, at 45th and 21st in tempo. They are both good offenses as well, but this number is extreme.
When adjusted for strength of schedule faced, Missouri ranks in the top 20 in the nation in rushing defense. Memphis is first in the nation in yards per carry, but the Tigers have feasted on terrible defenses on the ground. They won't be up against a weak defensive front this time.
Missouri has done most of their work in the air, but winds of 20 mph on Saturday will make it very tough to throw.
Games with a high total with strong winds have multiple very strong systems on the under. I would have passed on this game without the wind, but I'll take the under here.
10-20-18	 Penn State v. Indiana UNDER 61.5 33-28 Win 100 39 h 27 m Show
*3 Star Play Under* This number is too high given the circumstances of this game. First of all, it is hard to say how Penn State will view this game. They have lost two straight games and their preseason hopes are now gone. How do they respond? I don't see that as a positive for the over.
Indiana has time and time again played tight games against high quality Big Ten opponents, they just haven't been able to get over the hump. Allen is a defensive-minded coach, and I think his defense will be well-prepared for this big home game against Penn State.
Though both teams are playing a little bit fast, they are only at 41st and 43rd in pace of play, so it is nothing extreme. The Penn State defense has been excellent this year too. Penn State is 21st in the nation in yards per play allowed. They have played a tough schedule as well, and this defense has looked very good even in losses to Ohio State and Michigan State.
Indiana's offense hasn't been efficient. They are 93rd in the nation in yards per play. The Penn State offense doesn't have the same kind of explosive ability from the running back spot this year with Barkley gone.
I've gone with an average of 5 weather forecasts for this game, and they are calling for 19 mph sustained winds during this game. High totals with a lot of wind have some great long-term systems for under bettors.
10-20-18	 NC State v. Clemson OVER 54.5 Top 7-41 Loss	 -110 118 h 19 m Show
*5 Star CFB Top Play Total of the WEEK* The Clemson Tigers offense is excellent with Trevor Lawrence at the helm. Lawrence is playing with a lot of confidence, and he has a lot of weapons around him. Clemson's coaching staff has talked about wanting to push the tempo even more than they are now. Clemson already ranks 34th in pace of play in the nation. They will push the pace here.
North Carolina State has a very good quarterback in Ryan Finley. Finley is the best quarterback Clemson has faced so far this year. What is Clemson's weakness? Clearly, it is their secondary. The Tigers looked really bad in the secondary against Texas A&M earlier this year, and the NC State passing game should exploit this weakness.
NC State's defense ranks 66th in yards per play allowed. The Wolfpack are 16th in scoring defense. What does this mean? They are due for some serious regression to the mean. This NC State defense isn't nearly as good as they have looked so far this year. Clemson should move the ball easily here.
Both teams can exploit the other defenses weakness here. The pace will stay quick throughout.
Take the over. TOP Total of the Week.
10-20-18	 Akron v. Kent State UNDER 54 24-23 Win 100 60 h 52 m Show
*4 Star Play Under* The Kent State Golden Flashes and the Akron Zips meet in a big rivalry game on Saturday in Kent. This one is for the Wagon Wheel trophy.
Kent State and Akron are both very weak offensively. Kent State has allowed a ridiculous 29 sacks this year. That's worst in the country (130 teams). Akron has a good defensive line and they should be able to get in the backfield and put Kent State behind the chains here.
The Akron offense ranks 119th in the country in yards per play. Akron is averaging only 3.36 yards per carry on the year.
Kent State plays quickly, but they aren't efficient at all. Akron's offense severely lacks the big play potential. The Zips have only 6 plays of 30 yards or more all season.
Kent State's defense isn't very good, but this Akron defense is very good. The Zips are 37th in the nation in yards per play allowed.
Weather should be an issue here. An average of five forecasts in the Kent area shows temperatures in the upper 40's with winds around 15 mph guesting to 20 mph, and a 50% chance of showers during this game. That's a big plus for the under.
10-20-18	 Eastern Michigan v. Ball State UNDER 48 42-20 Loss	 -116 46 h 32 m Show
*4 Star Play Under* The weather for this game is set to be a big problem for both offenses. The average forecast between 5 different forecasts I looked at here calls for 48 degrees with average winds of 26 mph and gusts above 30 mph. There is also a 40% chance of rain showers during this game. These conditions are about as drastic as you will see this time of the year, especially with those wind gusts.
Neither team is efficient at running the football, and with these conditions they will have to run it much more often.
10-20-18	 Western Michigan v. Central Michigan UNDER 55 35-10 Win 100 23 h 35 m Show
*3 Star Play Under* This one originally wouldn't have made my card, but with the weather forecast here I have to take the under. An average of 5 weather forecasts I researched came up with 21 mph sustained winds with gusts to 30 mph. There is a 30% chance of snow during this game as well.
Blindly taking unders with winds of 20mph or greater has hit at a rate higher than 60% in the past 10 years.
This is a rivalry game where you would expect both teams to be very motivated, and in general that helps the under as well.
10-20-18	 Maryland v. Iowa UNDER 52.5 0-23 Win 100 115 h 13 m Show
*4 Star Play Under* The Iowa Hawkeyes host the Maryland Terrapins on Saturday. Maryland is extremely one-dimensional on offense. Maryland has to be able to run the football or they can't move the ball. Maryland ranks 10th in the nation in yards per carry, but they haven't gone against many really good defenses against the run. That all changes when they play against Iowa on Saturday. Iowa is 5th in the nation in ypc allowed at only 2.69. The Hawkeyes are always strong in the front seven on defense, and that is the case again this year.
The tempo for both teams points toward an under. Iowa ranks 105th out of 130 in terms of tempo. Maryland ranks 110th in tempo. What about how often they are running the ball? Maryland runs on 66.4% of their offensive plays. Iowa runs on 57% of their offensive plays. This will mean a lot of moving clock.
The weather here could be a bonus. The current forecast calls for 15 mph winds with gusts to 20 mph during this one.
10-20-18	 Illinois v. Wisconsin UNDER 58 20-49 Loss	 -109 68 h 5 m Show
*3 Star Play Under* This is a game I considered passing on because of injuries on the Wisconsin defensive side of the ball, but this number is too with all factors considered.
Wisconsin plays at an extremely slow tempo. The Badgers rank in the bottom ten in terms of pace of play. Illinois ranks is right around the average when it comes to tempo.
The Illinois offense has been dreadful of late. They scored only 7 points last week against Purdue, and the Boilermakers have been only mediocre on defense this year.
The weather forecast here pushes me over the top on playing this under. The forecast calls for 20 mph sustained winds with gusts to 30 mph. There are some very strong angles on betting unders with heavy wind, and this is a high total for a Wisconsin game.
10-20-18	 Buffalo v. Toledo UNDER 63 31-17 Win 100 35 h 58 m Show
*4 Star Play Under* The Toledo Rockets don't have the same kind of offensive talent they have had in recent seasons. They lost a star quarterback and running back in the last couple years. Toledo is only 48th in the nation in yards per play this year. Toledo has only 14 plays of 30 yards or more on the season thus far (that is 56th best in the country). Buffalo's defense has excelled at stopping the big plays too. Buffalo has allowed only 9 plays of 30 yards or more on the season.
Buffalo's offense relies pretty heavily on Tyree Jackson and big plays through the air. Jackson is a really good quarterback, but winds of 20 mph and rain showers are forecast here. That's a clear negative for this Buffalo offense, and I think they'll have to be more conservative in this one.
High totals with a lot of wind have some great long-term systems for under bettors.
This is a key battle in the MAC- and one where both teams should be very motivated. That generally benefits the under as well.
10-18-18	 Stanford v. Arizona State OVER 53 20-13 Loss	 -110 77 h 33 m Show
*4 Star Play Over* The Stanford Cardinal have previously been thought of as a great defensive team. A few years ago that was the case. This year they aren't good defensively. Stanford ranks 70th in the nation in yards per play, and they haven't played many great offenses. The Cardinal have also been very fortunate when it comes to red zone defense. Stanford has allowed a touchdown on only 40 percent of opponents drives into the red zone. That isn't going to continue all year long.
Arizona State's offense is solid. Wilkins has done a nice job at quarterback for them, and Harry is an elite wide receiver. Arizona State's offensive line has been very good this year, and that helps against a Stanford defense that is aggressive rushing the passer.
Stanford's offense has been more explosive this year. They already have 14 plays of 30 yards or more. Bryce Love will likely play at least some here, though he isn't 100 percent. The Cardinal now have a more efficient passing game, and the Sun Devils defense is weak against the pass.
The over is 4-0 in Stanford's last 4 road games.
10-14-18	 Ravens v. Titans UNDER 42 21-0 Win 100 47 h 14 m Show
*4 Star Play Under* The Tennessee Titans host the Baltimore Ravens late Sunday afternoon in Nashville.
Baltimore ranks first in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Titans are 8th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. Two very strong defenses here.
Tennessee is running more than any other team in the NFL this year. They want to establish the run, but Baltimore has a really strong front seven. Mariota and the Titans passing attack haven't been consistent at all.
Baltimore is 27th in yards per play on offense this year. Tennessee is 30th in yards per play. These are two offenses that have failed to show a consistent ability to move the ball.
The weather here should play a role also. There is a 60 percent chance of rain and winds of 12-15 mph. That's plenty to make it harder for the passing attacks. More conservative play calling would help both of these defenses who are strong in the trenches.
The under is 7-3-1 in the last 11 meetings between these two.
10-14-18	 Bears v. Dolphins UNDER 42 28-31 Loss	 -114 32 h 50 m Show
*3 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Chicago Bears defense is elite. Their pass rush is going to give a bunch of teams trouble this year, and Miami's offensive line is in big trouble here. Miami's offensive line isn't very good to begin with, and now they are dealing with a severe shortage at the center position. Look for the Bears to get after Ryan Tannehill here.
The Bears offense still has a lot to prove. They ran up a big number on the Bucs, but that's a terrible defense. Miami's defense is solid against the run, and Trubisky and the passing attack still have plenty to prove.
Chicago's defense is third in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Dolphins have a gimmicky offense that is starting to get figured out by good defensive coordinators.
Both teams play at a much slower pace than the average team in the NFL. This kind of slow paced game with two teams who are very inconsistent on offense makes the under have value.
The under is 6-0 in the Bears last 6 following an ATS win. The under is 4-0 in the Bears last 4 following a win by 14 points or more. The under is 4-0 in Miami's last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. A 14-0 angle. Take the under.
10-13-18	 Colorado v. USC OVER 55 20-31 Loss	 -110 124 h 10 m Show
*4 Star Play Over* Colorado and USC are both moving relatively quickly on offense. USC's offense has improved as Daniels has gotten acclimated to this offense. He clearly has a lot of talent, and USC has some good skill position players around him.
Colorado's Montez is a very good veteran quarterback. This USC defense is only 58th in the country in yards per play allowed. They give up too many big plays and that should be an issue here.
Colorado's defense hasn't been tested by top notch offenses yet. USC should be able to get their offense going here.
10-13-18	 Middle Tennessee State v. Florida International OVER 56 21-24 Loss	 -110 41 h 6 m Show
*4 Star Play Over* The MTSU Blue Raiders offense had trouble getting going early in the season. MTSU has a great quarterback in Brent Stockstill and with Ty Lee on the outside he has a very good wide receiver to get the ball to. I was very impressed with MTSU's offense last week. Marshall is an excellent defense (best in the conference), and MTSU put up 34 points and 420 yards on them. MTSU was shut down by Vanderbilt and Georgia in the early going, but they aren't going to be facing defenses of that caliber anytime soon. MTSU pushes the pace, and I see no reason to expect FIU to slow them down much here.
FIU has been much better on offense than I expected them to be. James Morgan has fit in very well at quarterback. Morgan is averaging 9.79 yards per pass attempt. Him getting the ball up the field so much has really allowed this running game to have more success as well. FIU is 23rd in the nation in yards per play on offense.
Conference USA is well known for its high scoring affairs. The totals move downward here doesn't make any sense to me. I see a game with quite a bit of tempo and two quarterbacks playing well.
10-13-18	 Miami-FL v. Virginia UNDER 53 13-16 Win 100 123 h 49 m Show
*4 Star Play Under* The Virginia Cavaliers have adopted a new style of offense this year. Bronco Mendenhall's team is running the ball early and often. That plays into the Miami defensive strength though. Miami is 7th in the nation allowing only 2.73 yards per carry, and their defensive line is stacked with talent. The Virginia offensive front isn't likely to be able to get much of a push here.
Miami is running the ball on 61% of their plays this year. Perry has done a good job at quarterback now, but the offense has slowed down tempo-wise.
We should see a bunch of running clock in this game, and both defenses have been better at stopping the run than the offenses have at running the ball. The matchups appear to favor the defense.
I would expect a tight low scoring game.
10-13-18	 Louisiana Tech v. UTSA UNDER 50 Top 31-3 Win 100 120 h 5 m Show
*5 Star NCAA FB TOP Total of the WEEK* The UTSA Roadrunners have the worst offense in college football. UTSA just won 20-3 against Rice, but they had only 178 yards of offense in that game. Their two touchdowns were on drives of 31 yards and 3 yards. Rice turned the ball over 4 times, and UTSA was handed their points in that one. UTSA is last in yards per play in the country. There are even clear signs of regression for their offense when it comes to scoring. UTSA has scored on 100% of their red zone trips so far this year. That can't continue. They are near the bottom in allowing sacks, so that puts them behind the chains often. The lack of explosive plays from UTSA is ridiculous. They have only 2 plays of 30 yards or more in six games!
Louisiana Tech ranks 69th in the country in yards per play. They have been inconsistent this year. LA Tech has also been fortunate in that they have scored on 100% of their red zone trips this year. A sign of regression. LA Tech's defense has been good though. They are 47th in the nation in yards per play allowed. It's hard to imagine UTSA scoring very many at all here.
UTSA has always been good defensively under Coach Wilson. UTSA is a very physical team and they allow only 3.45 yards per carry. I expect LA Tech to get the lead here and as they try to salt this one away later in the game, the UTSA defense should hold their own.
Last year, LA Tech beat UTSA 20-6. I expect another defensive battle here.
Take the under. TOP Play. CFB TOP Total of the Week
10-13-18	 UL-Monroe v. Coastal Carolina OVER 66 45-20 Loss	 -115 39 h 58 m Show
*3 Star Play Over* The UL Monroe Warhawks and the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers have two of the bottom ten defenses in the nation. UL Monroe's offense has underachieved so far this year, but I expect them to put up some big numbers in Sun Belt action. UL Monroe has scored in the red zone only 58.33% of the time this year. That can't continue long term. That's a number that is due for some positive regression. This team has quite a few weapons and they have a speed advantage over the Coastal Carolina defense.
Coastal Carolina's offense has been much more efficient this year. Joe Moglia being back has really changed things for this team. The triple option has been really effective, and they are up against a terrible ULM defense here. ULM is 128th in the nation out of 130 teams in yards per play allowed this year. They are giving up 7.41 yards per play.
Coastal Carolina's defense is second worst in the nation allowing 6.81 yards per carry on the season. Both of these defenses give up explosive plays by the bunches. Look for a lot of long plays from scrimmage here.
The over is 20-6 in ULM's last 26 conference games. The over is 12-5 in Coastal's last 17 games.
10-13-18	 Southern Miss v. North Texas UNDER 55.5 7-30 Win 100 36 h 45 m Show
*4 Star Play Under* The weather in Denton, Texas isn't expected to be good at all for this game. A temperature in the mid 60's with winds of 15 mph and gusts to 20 mph and heavy rain are forecast for Saturday. That's some miserable weather for two teams that are reliant on the passing game. While the under is always helped by wind and rain, it is much more of a benefit when you catch a spot where teams are normally passing teams and they must try to get something going on the ground. That's the spot here.
Both of these defenses have been better this year. Despite playing a weak schedule, Southern Miss is 114th in the nation in yards per carry, so if they have to run the ball it isn't likely to go very well for them. North Texas lost their star in Wilson from the backfield last year. The Mean Green are 94th in the nation in yards per carry. The poor weather would at least somewhat neutralize the best player on the field (Mason Fine QB for North Texas) as well.
The sharp money is clearly on the under here, and I fully agree. This line is about where it should be without any weather issues. There are clear weather issues in this one- and with two teams reliant on throwing it around, that makes a big difference.
10-11-18	 Eagles v. Giants UNDER 45 34-13 Loss	 -115 80 h 3 m Show
*4 Star Play Under* Two offenses who have struggled quite a bit this season. New York is 20th in the NFL in yards per play. Philadelphia is all the way down at 25th in yards per play.
The Eagles defense is a strong unit, and I think the Giants defense will improve as well. Carson Wentz isn't himself yet, and Eli Manning just isn't a very good quarterback at this stage in his career.
The pace of play is key here. New York has played at the second slowest tempo of any team in the NFL. Philadelphia ranks in the bottom ten in tempo as well.
Weather could play a major role in this game. The current forecast calls for rain which is heavy at times and winds of 10-15 mph. That's a huge plus for the under.
The under is 5-1 in the Giants last 6 home games.
10-07-18	 Ravens v. Browns UNDER 45.5 9-12 Win 100 34 h 48 m Show
*4 Star Play Under* The Baltimore Ravens defense has been the best in the NFL so far this year. Baltimore really impressed me on defense last weekend in their win at Pittsburgh. The Ravens are balanced on defense, and there is no real weakness to attack. The Ravens are first in the NFL in yards per play allowed.
Cleveland gave up a ton of points last weekend, but the Browns defense is still a very solid unit. The Browns turnovers and some terrible calls by the refs inflated Oakland's point total last weekend some. Look at how well the Browns defended New Orleans in the Superdome and that says a lot. Cleveland ranks 10th in the NFL in yards per play allowed.
The AFC North has consistently been a very good division for the under. How good? The under is a whopping 57-33 (63.3%) in an AFC North game with a total of 41 points or higher since 2004.
Both of these offenses aren't very explosive, and I see a defensive battle here.
10-06-18	 Auburn v. Mississippi State UNDER 46 9-23 Win 100 122 h 31 m Show
*4 Star Play Under* The Auburn Tigers and Mississippi State defenses have been dominating this year. Both are extremely strong on the defensive front. What's the weakness of these offenses? The offensive line. That should make both quarterbacks uncomfortable, and lead to a lot of negative plays. Both of these offenses struggle when they get behind the sticks.
Auburn's offense is only averaging 5.42 yards per play, which is 91st best in the country. Their offensive line has been a huge problem this year.
Mississippi State is reliant on the run game, and Auburn's defense is 10th in the country allowing only 2.75 yards per carry.
A defensive battle.
10-06-18	 Kentucky v. Texas A&M UNDER 54 14-20 Win 100 122 h 35 m Show
*4 Star Play Under* The Texas A&M Aggies host the Kentucky Wildcats in a big SEC showdown on Saturday night.
Kentucky's defense ranks 14th best in the nation allowing only 4.46 yards per play. Kentucky is 5th in pass defense (yards per play allowed).
Kentucky will slow the tempo down as much as possible. They rank 118th in tempo in the country of 130.
Texas A&M also moves slowly at 106th in the country in tempo. The Aggies defense is better than their numbers would indicate. Alabama racked up a bunch of yards on this team.
With both teams preferring to run, the clock should keep moving here.
10-06-18	 UL-Monroe v. Ole Miss OVER 69.5 21-70 Win 100 121 h 38 m Show
*4 Star Play Over* The Ole Miss Rebels and the ULM Warhawks both move quickly. They both rank in the top 40 in the nation in tempo.
Ole Miss takes a lot of deep shots in the passing game. They have some tremendous wide receivers who will have a big advantage in this game. Ole Miss has a whopping 26 plays of 30 yards or more in only five games so far this year. The Rebels will get a bunch of explosive plays against this weak ULM defense. ULM ranks 116th out of 130 teams in the country in yards per play allowed.
The Ole Miss defense is very weak as well. The Rebels rank 102nd in yards per play allowed, and they are allowing 38 points per game this season. ULM's offense has underachieved some this year, and I think we'll see them put up plenty of points here.
10-06-18	 Iowa v. Minnesota UNDER 43 48-31 Loss	 -105 37 h 17 m Show
*3 Star Play Under* The Iowa Hawkeyes defense has been tremendous this year. Iowa ranks 7th in the nation in yards per play allowed. They are giving up only 2.67 ypc (8th best in country). Iowa's offense sits at 72nd in the country in yards per play. Iowa is only 89th in yards per carry offensively this year.
Minnesota ranks 120th in the nation in yards per play. The Golden Gophers are averaging only 3.63 yards per carry. They have suffered some serious injury problems at the running back spot. This Minnesota team doesn't have enough playmakers on offense to score much on good defense, and this is the best defense they have played yet by a large margin.
Both of these teams run the ball about 61% of the time on offense. Both teams rank among the 25 slowest teams in the country in terms of tempo. There will be a lot of running the ball and playing slowly, which will eat away at the clock here.
Both of the last two years this matchup has stayed well under the posted total. Winds of 10-12 mph are in forecast and that helps the under a bit as well.
It's a low number, but it's low for a reason.
10-06-18	 Buffalo v. Central Michigan UNDER 51.5 34-24 Loss	 -110 33 h 54 m Show
*3 Star Play Under* The Central Michigan offense is a mess this year. The Chippewas are 128th in the country in yards per play on offense. They have a weak offensive line and a lack of playmakers at the skill positions on offense. Central Michigan has only 8 plays of 20 yards or more all season.
Buffalo has a good quarterback in Tyree Jackson, but the Bulls have a very weak offensive line and a subpar rushing attack.
As bad as the Central Michigan offense is, the defense has been great. They are 26th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Their strong defensive line has a big edge in this game. Central Michigan should be able to get heat on Jackson in this game.
Buffalo is 32nd in the nation in yards per play allowed. The Bulls have a good pass rush and are a well-balanced defense.
The weather could play a role here. A 60% chance of rain is in the forecast and 10 mph winds.
09-29-18	 BYU v. Washington UNDER 46.5 7-35 Win 100 21 h 17 m Show
*3 Star CFB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Washington Huskies and the BYU Cougars play a similar style of football. Both are very physical teams, and both prefer to run the football and use up the clock. There should be a lot of running clock in this one, and the defenses are the strengths of both teams.
BYU is 106th out of 130 in the nation in tempo. Washington is 101st in tempo. Both defenses have been elite at not giving up big plays this year. BYU has only allowed 4 plays of 30 yards or more in four contests. Washington has only allowed a single play of 30 yards or more in four contests.
BYU wants to establish the run with Squally Canada, but Washington will likely feel good enough about their pass defense to commit a little extra help in the box here.
Jake Browning has regressed at quarterback, and this BYU defense should do a good job holding their own on the defensive line.
The under is 6-0 in BYU's last 6 vs. a Pac 12 opponent. The under is 5-0 in BYU's last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 September games. The under is 6-0 in Washington's last 6 September games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 after allowing less than 275 yards last game. A 27-0 angle.
09-29-18	 Stanford v. Notre Dame OVER 51.5 17-38 Win 100 122 h 48 m Show
*4 Star Play Over* The Notre Dame Fighting Irish offense will be much better with Book at quarterback now. Wimbush made too many mistakes and was just very inconsistent.
This Notre Dame team is going to push the pace. Book talk about how much the coaching staff wanted him to push the pace last week, and he followed the directions well. Notre Dame ranks 21st in the nation in tempo.
Stanford is a much slower paced team, but they are an offense that has big play capability. The Cardinal have a much better passing attack than they have had in most years, and that gives them balance.
This game finished 38-20 last year, and I see both offenses as better than last year.
09-29-18	 UTEP v. UTSA UNDER 47.5 21-30 Loss	 -110 122 h 36 m Show
*4 Star Play Under* UTSA is second to last in the nation in yards per play so far this year. UTEP is 8th worst out of 130 teams. These are two really bad offenses.
UTSA has been strong defensively for the past few years, and I expect them to be very good against the pass this year. UTEP doesn't have much of a running game.
The UTEP defense is improved from last year, and they aren't giving up as many big plays thus far.
UTEP ranks 123rd out of 130 teams in the nation in tempo. Look for an ugly low scoring contest.
09-29-18	 Florida v. Mississippi State UNDER 52.5 13-6 Win 100 121 h 37 m Show
*4 Star Play Under* The Mississippi State Bulldogs offense is very inconsistent, but their defense is very good. The Bulldogs actually played pretty well on defense last week against Kentucky. The strength of this Bulldogs defense is their defensive front. Florida is pretty reliant on the running game, and they are unlikely to have much success there.
Both of these teams are playing at a slower pace than average, and these are two strong defenses. The Florida offense hasn't been nearly as good as their points per game look. They have benefited from a bunch of short fields and special teams touchdowns.
09-29-18	 Nevada v. Air Force OVER 66 28-25 Loss	 -110 118 h 14 m Show
*4 Star Play Over* The Air Force Falcons offense hasn't been up to par so far this year, but I expect them to get their ground game going as they almost always do. They have multiple solid options at quarterback.
Nevada has a great quarterback for their pass heavy system in Ty Gangi. I expect Nevada to put up some big numbers in MWC play this year. Nevada is averaging an impressive 6.54 yards per play this year, and they are 17th quickest in the country in terms of tempo.
Nevada is 87th in yards per play allowed and Air Force is 97th.
When these teams met last year, Air Force won 45-42. It was no fluke that it was really high scoring either. Air Force had 591 yards offense and Nevada had 424 yards.
I don't see any reason to expect things to change in this year's matchup. A back and forth high scoring contest.
09-29-18	 South Alabama v. Appalachian State OVER 55.5 7-52 Win 100 86 h 39 m Show
*3 Star Play Over* The Appalachian State Mountaineers offense has been a really nice surprise this year. With Thomas at quarterback, they seem to have found a guy who knows the system really well and can make the right decisions. Moore gives this team a really good running back with the ability to break one at any time. Appalachian State is 6th in the nation in yards per play this year. This offense showed what they can do in that impressive season opener against Penn State.
South Alabama has decided to pick up the tempo this year. The Jaguars rank 42nd in the nation in tempo. They have gotten much better than expected quarterback play from Evan Orth. He threw for 360 yards on just 32 pass attempts against Memphis last week.
The South Alabama defense is weak. They have allowed a bunch of big plays this year. South Alabama has given up 28 plays of 20 yards or more in the early going this year. They rank 104th in the nation in yards per play allowed.
This number has been beaten down too far.
09-29-18	 Cincinnati v. Connecticut OVER 58 49-7 Loss	 -105 23 h 11 m Show
*3 Star Play Over* It's hard to overstate how bad this UConn defense has been. UConn is dead last in the nation in every key defensive statistic. UConn is allowing a ridiculous 9.22 yards per play. They are allowing 7.97 yards per carry, which is easily worst in the nation.
Cincinnati's defense is solid, but I think their defensive numbers look better than they truly are right now for a couple key reasons. They played one game (against Miami OH) in a driving rainstorm with 20mph. That makes the job a lot easier for the defense. Second, they played an Alabama A&M team that is awful.
The Cincinnati offense has gotten better week by week, and they should move easily against UConn as everyone else has. UConn hasn't allowed less than 49 points in a game this year and that includes a game against Rhode Island (FCS school).
David Pindell is now probable to play here, and the UConn offense is good enough that they should contribute enough here.
This number has gotten too low.