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US Position on Syria Tilts in Favour of Russian Intervention
The US seeks to take advantage of shared American-Russian interests in fighting ISIS, downgrading the objective of Syrian regime change
Par Gareth Porter
Mondialisation.ca, 09 février 2016
Middle East Eye 8 février 2016
Région : Middle East & North Africa
Thème: Terrorism
Analyses: SYRIA
Featured image: Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov (L) and US Secretary of State John Kerry shake hands after a news conference after a UN Security Council meeting on Syria at the United Nations in New York on 18 December, 2015 (AFP)
The major developments on the Syrian battlefield in recent months have brought a corresponding shift in the Obama administration's Syrian policy.
Since the Russian military intervention in Syria upended the military balance created by the victories of the al-Qaeda affiliate al-Nusra Front and its allies last year, the Obama administration has quietly retreated from its former position that « Assad must go ».
These political and military changes have obvious implications for the UN-sponsored Geneva peace negotiations. The Assad regime and its supporters are now well positioned to exploit the talks politically, while the armed opposition is likely to boycott them for the foreseeable future.
Supporters of the armed opposition are already expressing anger over what they regard as an Obama administration « betrayal » of the fight against Assad. But the Obama policy shift on Syria must be understood, like most of the administration's Middle East policy decisions, as a response to external events that is mediated by domestic political considerations.
The initial Obama administration's public stance on the Russian air campaign in Syria last October and early November suggested that the United States was merely waiting for Russia's intervention to fail.
For weeks the political response to the Russian intervention revolved around the theme that the Russians were seeking to bolster their client regime in Syria and not to defeat ISIS, but that it would fail. The administration appeared bent on insisting that Russia give into the demand of the US and its allies for the departure of President Bashar al-Assad from power.
But the ISIS terror attacks in Paris focused the political attention of Europeans and Americans alike on the threat from ISIS terrorism and the need for cooperation with Russia to combat it. That strengthened the position of those within the Obama administration – especially the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the CIA – who had never been enamored of the US policy of regime change in the first place. In the aftermath of the Paris attacks, they pressed for a rethinking of the US insistence on Assad's departure, as suggested publicly at the time by former acting CIA director Michael Morell.
The political impact of the Paris attacks has now been reinforced by the significant gains already made by the Syrian army and its allies with Russian air support in Latakia, Idlib and Hama provinces.
The bombing and ground offensives were focused on cutting the main lines of supply between the areas held by ISIS and the Nusra-led coalition and the Turkish border, which if successful would be a very serious blow to the armed opposition groups.
Dramatic successes came in late January, when Syrian government troops recaptured the town of Salma in Latakia province, held by al-Nusra Front since 2012, and the strategic al-Shaykh Maskin, lost to anti-Assad rebels in late 2014, thus regaining control of Daraa-Damascus highway. Even more significant, the Syrian army has cut off the lines of supply from Turkey to Aleppo, which is occupied by al-Nusra and allied forces.
By the time Secretary of State John Kerry met with the head of the Syrian opposition delegation, Riyad Hijab, on 23 January, it was clear to the Obama administration that the military position of the Assad regime was now much stronger, and that of the armed opposition was significantly weaker. In fact, the possibility of a decisive defeat exists for the first time in light of the Russian-Syrian strategy of cutting off the supply lines of the al-Nusra front.
What Kerry told Hijab, as conveyed to the website Middle East Briefing, reflected a new tack by the administration in light of that political-military reality. He made it clear that there would be no preconditions for the talks, and no formal commitment that they would achieve the departure of Assad at any point in the future. He was unclear whether the desired outcome of the talks was to be a « transitional government » or a « unity government » – the latter term implying that Assad was still in control.
The armed opposition and its supporters have been shocked by the shift in Obama's policy. But they shouldn't be. The administration's previous Syria policy had been based in large part on what appeared to be a favourable political opportunity in Syria. As described by Washington Post correspondent Liz Sly's official US source, the policy was to put « sufficient pressure on Assad's forces to persuade him to compromise but not so much that his government would precipitously collapse…. »
The Obama administration had seen such an opportunity because a covert operation launched in 2013 to equip « moderate » armed groups with anti-tank missiles from Saudi stocks had strengthened the Nusra Front and its military allies. American Syria specialist Joshua Landis estimated last October that 60 to 80 percent of the missiles had ended up in the hands of the Nusra Front in Syria.
Those weapons were the decisive factor in the Nusra-led Army of Conquest takeover of Idlib province in April 2015 and the seizure of territory on the al-Ghab plain in Hama province, which is the main natural barrier between the Sunni-populated area inland and the Alawite stronghold of Latakia province on the sea. That breakthrough by al-Nusra and its allies, which threatened the stability of the Assad regime, was serious enough to provoke the Russian intervention in September.
But given the new military balance, the Obama administration now recognises that its former strategy is now irrelevant. It has been supplanted with a new strategy that is equally opportunistic. The idea now is to take advantage of shared US-Russian strategic interests regarding ISIS – and downgrade the objective of forcing a change in the Syrian regime.
A signal fact of the war against ISIS in Syria that has been ignored in big media coverage is that the United States and Russia have been supporting the same military forces in Syria against ISIS. The Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD) the leading party in Syrian Kurdistan, controls a large swath of land across northern Syria bordering Turkey. Its military force, the Peoples Defence Units (YPG), has been the most significant ground force fighting against ISIS.
But the YPG has also fought against al-Nusra Front and its allies, and has made no secret of its support for Russian air strikes against those forces. Moreover, the PYD has actively cooperated with the Syrian army and Hezbollah in northern Aleppo province. It is both the primary Syrian ally of the United States against ISIS but also a strategic key to the Russian-Syrian strategy for weakening al-Nusra and its allies.
US NATO ally Turkey has adamantly opposed the US assistance to the PYD, insisting it is a terrorist organisation. The United States has never agreed with that, however, and is determined to exploit the strategic position of PYD in the fight against ISIS. But that also implies a degree of US-Russian cooperation against the main armed opposition to the Assad regime as well.
The Obama administration is no longer counting on a military balance favourable to the armed opposition to Assad to provide a reason for concessions by the regime. Whether military success against the armed opposition will be decisive enough to translate into a resolution of the conflict remains to be seen. In the meantime, the Syria peace negotiations are likely to be at a standstill.
–Gareth Porter is an independent investigative journalist and winner of the 2012 Gellhorn Prize for journalism. He is the author of the newly published Manufactured Crisis: The Untold Story of the Iran Nuclear Scare.
La source originale de cet article est Middle East Eye
Copyright © Gareth Porter, Middle East Eye, 2016
Articles Par : Gareth Porter
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The following are a listing of suggested formats that Bands may use in their regular meetings. The guiding principle is the use of those formats for the individuals in that Band which deepen the experience of God in the Band gathering.
The general format is that each meeting will have an opening, content session and closing.
Openings: Often will include the following: verbal prayer to gather the Band, reading from Psalms, contemplative readings by leading contemplative teachers like Father Keating, silent prayer for at least twenty minutes and Communion.
Closings: Verbal prayers of blessing and sending forth.
Lectio divinia model — A passage of scripture is read three times interspersed with Silence and after a concluding Silence, and a chance to journal, individuals share what has come up for them on how the Word is speaking to them in the moment.
Trust Circle model — One person leads the Band in this model. A phrase or short reading may be offered to take into the Silence. The leader assures silence for some period and the opportunity for sharing of whatever anyone feels led to share that is coming out of their experience of silent prayer to God about whatever is on their hearts. After a sharing and Silence there is opportunity for Spirit led questions from others interspersed with Silence.
Personal Topic model — Someone brings a topic, an issue that is on their hearts and shares it. There is no limitation on what these may be: a feeling of loss of faith, a grief or sadness, an awareness of how a personality issue such as perfectionism is undermining their spiritual growth. While questions may be asked of the person bringing the topic. There are no responses designed to "solve the problem," rather members simply hold the space and are present for what is shared. After Silence, others share their experience about the topic.
General Topic model — Sometimes we are stunned by things happening in the world: a tsunami in Asia, a flood or an earthquake, or some random act of violence in the world. Sometimes we are uplifted by expressions of goodness and kindness in the world. When these topics are shared it is important not to get too heady about them, but to keep the sharing at the level of the emotional impact of such events and how one is pushed away or connected to God because of the way we interpret such events. As always sharings should be interspersed with Silence.
Instructive model — Normally this model would not be used often, because by its nature it is least likely to provide a contemplative experience, but sometimes it will be helpful to use a video or present material on how a particular contemplative practice is best utilized; e.g. to dig into the nuts and bolts of how best Centering Prayer seems to work. When this model is used it is important to be sure there is Silence and time for people to share their experience of not just the instruction, but the experience of doing the instruction.
Praise model — The hierarchy of the main ways to connect with God in contemplation is: first, Silence; then stirrings of the heart, movement of the body and probably lastly dialogue. In addition to processes that allow us to share verbally stirrings of the heart, music, chanting, singing and movement all open us to deep direct, non-mental, connections to God. Using this model a Band might chant all or part of its session, or sing, or listen to or move to spiritual music.
Welcoming Prayer Model — The welcoming prayer is repeated several times interspersed with Silence. After an opportunity to journal each person shares, interspersed with Silence, what issues the Welcoming Prayer touches on that are most up for them. There is no cross talk or fixing; just a sharing of how this prayer is moving each person's spirit.


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Q: Script with path in Filemaker Pro 12 I'm using OS X 10.6 & Filemaker Pro 12; I'd like to have a script in FM to automatically open a .pdf file from a container field using Preview (dumping the file on the desktop) but it has to be using a variable path for whomever is using this particular hosted file in our local (or remote) office network

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