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Post #817: Vaccine and sins of omission.
I've had a series of posts arguing that Russia (and now the China) are doing the right thing by deploying their vaccines before they know their effectiveness. That was stated most recently in Post #814. Both countries are already providing those vaccines to high-risk populations such as health care workers, before they know how effective the vaccines are (or aren't) in preventing (or lessening severity of) COVID-19 infection.
Today's twist is that they are also winning allies and gaining international influence by supplying vaccines, now, to other countries that need them. That's written up in this Washington Post article. So not only are they ahead in their own country, but they are gaining influence around the world by being first-to-market in a number of countries that need help right now. (And, in an odd twist, they've decided to pool some efforts on their vaccines. )
In this post, I'm going to review the logic behind this one last time, and then do the grade-school arithmetic that validates that logic. Something that, apparently, neither our elected officials nor our public health bureaucracy seems willing or able to do. Or at least, to admit to doing, in public.
My best guess, using some quite conservative estimates, is that providing 10 million doses of vaccine now, instead of six months from now, would save just under 10,000 hospitalizations (worth about a quarter-billion dollars), and about 2800 lives. This doesn't even count other costs saved, such costs saved by avoidance permanent organ damage from COVID-19, or economic losses from work or school time not missed due to COVID-19 illness and quarantine. Not only would the avoided hospital costs more than pay for the vaccine itself, these numbers are vastly higher than any plausible health or economic damage from any as-yet-undiscovered rare side effects of the vaccines.
Details follow.
What is gained, and what is lost, by using a COVID-19 vaccine before its effectiveness has been proven?
The logic is simple: heads I win, tails I don't lose. If they are effective, then providing them early is a big win. You get a jump-start on stopping the pandemic, and you provide protection for high-risk populations. If not, all you've done is injected a whole bunch of people with a placebo.
First point: there's no huge direct health risk in providing these vaccines. They aren't somehow going to kill a bunch of people. All of them passed Phase I safety trials months ago. All have been given to thousands-to-ten-of-thousands of Phase II/III volunteers. Possible serious side-effects are so rare that they make the news when one occurs, as with one person in a trial of the British (AstraZeneca) vaccine.
Thalidomide. Invariably, when I read comments on newspaper articles about coronavirus vaccine, somebody always says they won't take the COVID-19 vaccine because it could be another Thalidomide. That's so common that I'll go ahead and address it. Because the people who say that are clueless, and have never even bothered to look up the basic facts regarding Thalidomide. First, there were never any human safety tests of Thalidomide. In that era — the 1950s — safety tests were done using animals only. Second, in the 65 years since Thalidomide was first marketed, the entire approach to testing and reviewing drug safety and efficacy has changed. As tough as it is for many to grasp, they don't test drugs the way they did 65 years ago, and standards for safety are vastly higher than they were years ago. Best analogy I can think of is cars. Saying COVID-19 vaccine is unsafe because of Thalidomide is like saying modern cars are unsafe because 1950s vehicles had no seat belts. It's a ridiculous non-sequitur. Finally, the substances in question are completely different. We know what these vaccines are supposed to do, and how they do it. These mRNA vaccines boil down to injecting you with a known harmless virus that carries RNA encoding one surface protien of COVID-19. This is in the hopes that you'll get a little viral infection around the injection side, and thereby create antibodies to a key COVID-19 surface protein. By contrast, Thalidomide is a biologically-active compound with diverse effects throughout the human body, and a correspondingly large array of side effects. They still have no idea exactly how it works in most cases, and they still have no idea why it causes birth defects (Wikipedia).
In fact, Dr. Fauci expressly addressed the incorrect idea that COVID-19 vaccines might be unsafe due to their rapid development. That's an idea pushed by people who don't understand how vaccine development has changed over time, as I explained back in May 2020 (Post #698). Here's Fauci's explanation, emphasis mine:
He (Fauci) specifically debunked the idea that speed equates to recklessness.
"I think people need to understand that speed is not related to a compromise of safety nor to a compromise of scientific integrity," Fauci explained. "The fact that we've been able to move so fast is a real reflection of the extraordinary technological advances that have been made in the development of vaccines."
Fauci largely attributed the ability to move so quickly in developing a treatment for the coronavirus to technological innovation. He stated that growing or sequencing a virus to make a vaccine used to take years, but can now be done within weeks or months. So the fact that a vaccine could be ready in such a short time frame relative to how long vaccines usually take to develop is not necessarily a sign of safety being compromised.
Source: The Hill: Fauci Predicts Pandemic Will end in Late 2021.
Second point: You should not lose any adherence to existing COVID-19 safety precautions (such as distancing and mask use) by providing these vaccines. That's because nobody in a position of authority expects any of these vaccines to be 100% effective. And most expect them to be only moderate effective, like the seasonal flu vaccine. (Which I first started discussing back in early July, Post #741). Accordingly, medical experts such Dr. Fauci are already telling people that they're going to have to keep up all existing precautions in addition to being vaccinated. From the same article cited above:
Notably, however, Fauci emphasizes that a combination of both a vaccine and adherence to public health protocols will be key to beating back COVID-19.
"You never should abandon the public-health measures. And the intensity of the public-health measures would depend on the level of infection in the community."
Third point: On the other hand, you may not gain a whole lot of immunity with the Russian and Chinese vaccines. There's a good reason to think that neither the Russian nor the Chinese vaccine is going to be particularly effective. It boils down to the use of a common human virus as the "carrier" for the vaccine. Many people have already encountered that virus and have antibodies for it. Those individuals have immune systems that will attack and (may) kill that virus before it has done its job. Many people will be literally immune to the vaccine.
This scenario — the immune system destroys the medicine — is actually common for modern "monoclonal antibody" biological drugs. This is why some MABs such as infliximab (Remicade ™) are often given with immune suppressants such as methotrexate, and why effectiveness of those drugs often fades over time. Patients literally develop antibodies against the biological. This is also why at least one of the leading US candidates uses a virus found in monkeys, not humans. They want to avoid having the vaccine destroyed by the immune system before it has a chance to work.
Fourth point: And yet, the person chosen to express "the US point of view" invariably condemns Russia and China for early vaccine release. Typically, they point to the potential for some rare, as-yet-undiscovered, but potentially serious side-effect of the vaccine. Side effects that haven't shown up yet in the tens of thousands of person-months of exposure to those vaccines so far. Or, in the case of the Chinese vaccine, despite hundreds of thousands of person-months of exposure so far. That sentiment is attributed to unnamed "physicians" in this Washington Post article.
But here's an odd thing. I'm pretty sure that a fairly common and well-recognized side effect of COVID-19 is death. And yet, the people who condemn the early release somehow never seem to mention that. And COVID-19 has some fairly important other side effects too, ranging from permanent organ damage (heart, lung, kidney), down to simple loss of work time and disruption of schooling. (And here, I'm not talking about societal losses, such as lost GDP and tax revenues. I'm talking about the fact that people who get this disease, even a mild case, have to quarantine themselves for two weeks.)
So let's do some simple grade-school arithmetic on the benefits of releasing 10 million vaccine doses now, versus releasing them six months from now. When, plausibly, the Phase III trials will have had enough person-months of exposure to have drawn some conclusion about effectiveness. Because, apparently, nobody in the US government or representing the US position on this issue appears to be willing to do that.
Calculation Part 1: Infections avoided = doses given x infection rate per day x vaccine effectiveness x days not delayed.
By assumption, doses delivered in this calculation is 10 million doses delivered now.
The current US infection rate is 12 new cases of COVID-19 per 100,000 population per day. For the time being, let me ignore the fact that the vaccine would be targeted to high-risk groups first (see Post #812). Or, possibly, targeted first to areas with outbreaks. So, arguably, we ought to use a much higher number. (And note that that's diagnosed cases, because that affects the benefit calculation that comes next, which is based on adverse events per diagnosed case.)
Let me assume that the US vaccines will be mediocre, just 60% effective. The FDA says they won't allow them to be released if they are less than 50% effective. (Although it uses a very loose definition of that.) Let me assume they'll be 60% effective, just like the seasonal flu virus in good year (when the vaccine exactly matches the most common viruses that are circulating).
And let me assume that if we waited until Phase II/III trials were complete, that would take another six months. (Or, six months from when we should have started using the vaccine, which was at least a month ago.)
So my calculator yields: 10,000,000 x (12/100,000) x 0.60 x 180 = 129,600 cases of COVID-19 avoided, by giving that vaccine now, as opposed to six months from now.
Calculation part 2: Benefit = cases avoided x typical harm per case. E.g., hospitalization or death per COVID-19 case.
Currently (9/19/2020), in Virginia, we have seen 139,655 cases, 10,562 hospitalizations, and 2,990 deaths from COVID-19. That means that 7.6 percent of diagnosed cases resulted in hospitalization, and 2.1 percent resulted in death.
Again, this is a conservative calculation, because it ignores the fact that the vaccine would be targeted to high-risk groups such as the elderly, nursing home residents, and those with comorbidities. This just assumes it would be given to the average Virginia resident. (And deaths may be modestly under-reported due to reporting issues that Virginia is trying to fix.)
That means early distribution of vaccine would save (129,600 x 0.076 =) ~9800 hospitalizations and (129,600 x 0.021 = ) ~2775 deaths. That doesn't count avoidance of organ damage, treatment costs for non-hospitalized patients, work loss, school loss, and other such items.
The traditional (fee-for-service) portion of the Medicare program provides a reliable benchmark for average payment (roughly equal to cost) for COVID-19 discharges. Medicare has paid an average of just over $25,000 per discharge so far (per this reference on the Medicare website). Assuming I've done the math right, the total hospital cost savings works out to just about a quarter-billion in hospital costs, and just under $25 per dose of vaccine administered. Even with this extremely conservative calculation, the savings in hospitalization costs alone more than pay for the vaccine. (I believe that the Federal government is paying something like $10/dose for the vaccines that it is purchasing.)
Conclusion: Sins of Omission.
Given the tens to hundreds of thousands of individuals who have already taken these vaccines, it's inconceivable that there is some as-yet-unnoticed major side effect whose estimated costs could more than offset these estimated benefits. Under a reasonably conservative set of assumptions, early provision of vaccine in a pandemic scenario is a winner, both from the standpoint of health, and from the standpoint of dollars and cents.
Those of us of a certain age, and raised in a certain faith tradition, understand that there are both sins of commission and sins of omission. The former is doing something that you shouldn't have. The latter is not doing something that you should have.
By not releasing vaccines early, we're committing a sin of omission. And if I can do that arithmetic, so can our health bureaucracy. But like all bureaucracies, they are inherently conservative. You can get fired for the bad decision that you made. You are rarely fired for the even worse non-decision that you made.
And so, even though they are perfectly capable of doing this arithmetic, nobody in the health care bureaucracy is going to come out in favor of early release. It's just not in their DNA. And as a result, people in third-world countries will be getting vaccinated, courtesy of Russian and China, while we sit here until our health bureaucracy ensures that all the i's are dotted and t's are crossed.
In the end, a rational policy here is all about balance. You don't make knee-jerk reactions. You don't blithely do business-as-usual. You don't take poliics into consideration. You carefully assess costs and benefits of action. And you assess the costs and benefits of inaction. And you do what's best for the country.
But that assumes we have any rational policy. Really, all this requires is for those in charge to wake up and realize that we're in the middle of a deadly pandemic. That, by itself, radically alters the cost/benefit calculus in favor of early vaccine release. But instead, the bureaucracy plods along, insisting that business-as-usual is the only possible course. While, what, 1000/day are dying from COVID-19, every day vaccine release is delayed?
Man, I am tired of being on Team Stupid.
Posted on September 19, 2020 September 19, 2020 Author chogan@directresearch.comCategories coronavirus, COVID-19, Masks, Pandemic, SARS-CoV-2Tags vaccine
Previous Previous post: Post #816: We actually did have a rational, national plan for mask use?
Next Next post: Post #818: Well, turns out, this *is* as good as it gets.


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YOU'RE INVITED! LIBERTAS AWARD DINNER. LEARN MORE…
BETTER GOVERNMENT
USNH schools rank high for free speech
BLOG, EDUCATION
For the second year in a row, all undergraduate campuses of the University System of New Hampshire were nationally recognized for their commitment to freedom of speech.
In its just-released "Speech Codes 2020" report, the Foundation for Individual Rights in Education (FIRE) gave the University of New Hampshire, Plymouth State University and Keene state College "green light" ratings. A green light signifies "that the institution does not maintain any written policies that imperil free expression."
By contrast, the state's lone Ivy League institution, Dartmouth College, received a "red light" for having "at least one policy that both clearly and substantially restricts freedom of speech."
Dartmouth received D grades on due process rights for students accused of misconduct, scoring in the mid-single digits on a 20-point scale.
Students at Dartmouth also are encouraged to report each other to the administration for "bias." The college's Office of Judicial Affairs tells students: "If you are the target of, witness to, or even simply hear about any form of bias happening to a Dartmouth student, you should submit a Bias Impact Report immediately."
New Hampshire's public colleges and universities have no similarly Orwellian instructions for students to act as secret speech police, nor do they have speech codes that violate students' First Amendment rights.
As recently as 2017, Keene State College received a red light rating and the University of New Hampshire received yellow light from FIRE for having restrictive speech codes.
But in the spring of 2018, UNH revised all of its codes, and Keene State followed suit in the summer.
"Universities should be the first to embrace the free exchange of ideas and speech," then-UNH President Mark Huddleston said. "The only UNH policy on speech is that it is free and unfettered on our campuses, and we're pleased that FIRE has recognized our efforts."
Upon his inauguration as UNH's new president in 2018, Jim Dean also signaled his support for freedom of speech.
Granite Staters can be proud that their public university system has made its campuses into forums for the free exchange of ideas. And they can be thankful to FIRE for encouraging good behavior by monitoring campus speech policies and publishing these rankings.
(Note: FIRE's reports do not include Granite State College, the University System of New Hampshire's adult education college.)
December 6, 2019 /1 Comment/by Andrew Cline
https://jbartlett.org/wp-content/uploads/shutterstock_1050261008.jpg 5187 4336 Andrew Cline http://jbartlett.org/wp-content/uploads/logo_white_v1_360x70.png Andrew Cline2019-12-06 16:13:352019-12-06 16:13:35USNH schools rank high for free speech
So proud to see that some colleges are willing to stand against such winds if change that will take us further and further away from our founding principles.
Copyright © 2018 The Josiah Bartlett Center for Public Policy. All rights reserved.
For America, gratitude is foundational Taking the first step to solving New Hampshire's housing shortage

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MIROCK FINANCIAL SERVICES LIMITED was incorporated on 23 Jun 2016. This company is now Registered.
Their business is recorded as NZ Limited Company. As so far this company has running for 2 year(s) 305 days.


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Home Articles Social networking app Travello raises AUD$5 million to build the world's largest...
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Social networking app Travello raises AUD$5 million to build the world's largest online community for travellers
Ryan Hanly (right) and Mark Cantoni (left)
Travello, a social networking app for travellers, recently announced it closed a AUD $5M capital raise from a consortium of private investors to support its global expansion. The new investment brings the total equity raised by the startup to AUD $6.4M.
Founded in 2015 by two footy mates from northern Queensland, Travello connects travellers from all corners of the globe, recommends experiences and allows users to browse and book more than 50,000 activities. The social networking app is currently used by more than 350,000 travellers in 180 countries. In July 2018 alone, Travello recorded 1.8M events on the Travello feed.
Co-founder Mark Cantoni grew up on a cattle property near the town of Malanda on the Atherton Tablelands in Far North Queensland. He moved to Brisbane for uni and began working as a Surveyor – working in QLD and UK – all the while playing semi-professional Rugby League.
The other co-founder, Ryan Hanly grew up in the rural town of Mackay, North Queensland. He also moved to Brisbane for uni and became a PE teacher at Brisbane private boys school, and later in London. Ryan is now married with 4 children. The pair first bonded over a love of rugby league, and later over a passion for travel.
What does this capital raise mean for Travello?
Ryan said the investment comes at the ideal time to help grow the platform globally.
"In order for us to continue our rapid growth, we need a presence in our key markets, initially the UK and Europe. This investment will kick-start that process by allowing us to put resources on the ground across product, engineering, customer care and marketing," he said.
Ryan Hanly
The team will also use the funds to further enhance the app's features and its SaaS marketing platform, BlueTee. Comprised of a suite of technologies, BlueTee enables travel businesses to better connect with their customers pre, in-destination and post travel through location based geo-fences to pinpoint highly targeted push messages.
"The idea behind our biz-tech solution is to help travel businesses reach travellers in-destination through customer touch-points that were previously unattainable due to the nomadic nature of travellers and for these businesses to use Travello as a social extension for their brands," explains Ryan, adding: "Unlike TripAdvisor, which started as a social platform but morphed into a marketplace, our community will always be at the heart of Travello."
Why has Travello attracted this funding?
Travello's success can be attributed in part to its ability to grow and sustain a connected tribe of passionate travellers which drives the core of its business. Research shows that travelers remain plugged into social media while on vacation. An estimated 72% of people post photos on social networks while traveling, and 70% of travelers update their social media status while vacationing.
"As Queensland's Chief Entrepreneur, it's exciting to see local startups become global players. Brisbane is a growing hub for innovation, especially having recently developed 'The Precinct', and investments in homegrown startups like Travello are further proof that the city is an epicentre for innovation. It's great to see Travello taking on the world from its office here in Fortitude Valley; it is well on its way to becoming the world's largest online community for travelers," said Shark Tank's Steve Baxter.
"Travello is growing from strength to strength – taking on the world with their innovative travel app. The Palaszczuk Government will continue backing innovative Queensland startups, like Travello who received a $100,000 Advance Queensland Ignite Ideas grant to commercialise their product and scale up to new markets," remarked Kate Jones, Queensland's Minister for Innovation and Tourism Industry Development.
capital raise
Mark Cantoni
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Gainsborough Trinity host fellow Vanarama National League North side, Boston United, in the Lincolnshire County Cup final at the Martin and Co Arena on Tuesday evening. The Holy Blues come into the contest after picking up a critical 1-0 victory against FC United of Manchester on Saturday afternoon. The narrow win helped Trinity push four points clear of the relegation zone after losing two games on the bounce that ended an undefeated run of six matches that included five wins.
Boston United appeared to be turning a corner after beating Leamington and drawing against Stockport County but defeat to high-flying Harrogate Town left them rooted in the relegation zone this weekend. It was new manager Craig Elliott's first game in charge after five defeats in six matches before the minor rejuvenation plummeted the Pilgrims into the drop zone under the previous regime.
The visitors comfortably defeated Grimsby Town in the semi-finals and saw off Lincoln United earlier in the season to reach this point of the competition. Lincoln City and Grantham Town were the teams disposed of by the Holy Blues in the previous rounds.
These sides are used to meeting each other during the winter months with back-to-back fixtures played out during the Christmas period last season. Boston took the lead before being pegged back for a 1-1 draw in South Lincolnshire on Boxing Day, before the Pilgrims came from a goal behind to win 2-1 on New Year's Day in Gainsborough. The exact same fixtures are scheduled for this campaign meaning that this evening's meeting is the first of three within six weeks.
Trinity have not defeated their Lincolnshire rivals in the last three league meetings between the sides and will be hoping to repeat the performance of September 2015 that saw them win 2-0 with Nathan Jarman adding the second that afternoon.


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Recovering MacOS with no mouse, keyboard only recovery | Michael Hirsch, Ph.D.
A recent MacOS upgrade to High Sierra mysteriously broke the Apple mouse Bluetooth connection. Despite the computer showing the mouse as paired, no motion of the cursor or response to clicks. Here's how I used the keyboard alone to reconnect the mouse, as no wired mouse was available.
The frequently used Mac "Command" key is equivalent to the "Windows" key on a PC keyboard.
Select Bluetooth. You may see your mouse already paired.
Use Tab to select the "x" (it's hard to see the highlight due to the flat color scheme.
Cmd n to setup new device. Flip mouse power switch off, then on again if it doesn't show up.
select the mouse and press Enter.


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Filmation Batman - 1968
Post by Yellow Oval » Fri Sep 21, 2012 6:05 pm
At the risk of possibly rehashing an old question - does anyone know why Filmation hasn't released its classic old animated episodes from the 1968-69 The Batman/Superman Hour? I remember some episodes released on VHS back in the '80s. I loved (almost worshipped) it on Saturday mornings being as it was part of the late '60s Adam West all-things Batman era. Though it's a tad cornball now it's still fun.
Re: Filmation Batman - 1968
Post by Scott Sebring » Fri Sep 21, 2012 6:24 pm
Yellow Oval wrote: At the risk of possibly rehashing an old question - does anyone know why Filmation hasn't released its classic old animated episodes from the 1968-69 The Batman/Superman Hour? I remember some episodes released on VHS back in the '80s. I loved (almost worshipped) it on Saturday mornings being as it was part of the late '60s Adam West all-things Batman era. Though it's a tad cornball now it's still fun.
I don't know why they haven't seen DVD release but they are available in digital download format through Amazon and iTunes.
As Johnny Carson would've said - "I did not know that! Did you know that, Ed? I did not know that!"
Thanks Scott. Very much appreciated info.
batbelfry
Post by batbelfry » Fri Sep 21, 2012 6:31 pm
And I'm pretty sure Warner Home Video holds the rights now, not Filmation.
Perhaps it's a property that they're holding on to until after they run out of current material, say, after Dark Knight Rises comes out. I mean, let's face it, after that, the well is going to start running pretty dry on Bat-material for DVD release. They've done all the movies, the old serials, the animated series from the '70's and the '90's, even the roast thing from the 70's...all that's really left now are the '66 Series and the '68 Filmation stuff.
I don't know whether or not the Filmation stuff has been "restored", but what I've seen of the digital downloads that Scott mentioned, the material looks pretty good, and is probably ready to go.
My two cents, anyhoo.
Yes, all that's really left is the stuff we REALLY, REALLY WANTED from the get-go! What did they give us? BAT-MITE!!! To quote Charlie Brown - "AARGHH!" Ehh, I bought the New Adventures just the same.
Post by Robin Holyisms » Sat Sep 22, 2012 12:32 am
Scott Sebring wrote: I don't know why they haven't seen DVD release but they are available in digital download format through Amazon and iTunes.
Could it be due to poor sales? Because only 17 episodes from that cartoon are available from Amazon and Itunes. But there were a total of 34 episodes in the particular series.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Advent ... n#Episodes
Post by Bob » Sat Sep 22, 2012 6:54 am
I loved the show, even Dr Bubbles and Simon the Pieman
Post by Scott Sebring » Sat Sep 22, 2012 7:42 am
Robin Holyisms wrote: Could it be due to poor sales? Because only 17 episodes from that cartoon are available from Amazon and Itunes. But there were a total of 34 episodes in the particular series.
There were 34 stories contained within 17 episodes. They are selling the 22 minute episodes with two stories , not each story individually. You need to click on the "more" button in iTunes on each episode to see the other story mentioned.
66wasbest
Post by 66wasbest » Sat Sep 22, 2012 12:11 pm
Do they have the original 1968 opening for The Batman Superman hour with the catchy theme song/
Post by Scott Sebring » Sat Sep 22, 2012 12:39 pm
66wasbest wrote: Do they have the original 1968 opening for The Batman Superman hour with the catchy theme song/
No. Just the Batman intro that can cause seizures with the constant flashing.
Bat-Stan
Post by Bat-Stan » Sat Sep 22, 2012 3:19 pm
Scott Sebring wrote:
Hmm. Well that might explain why I still twitch whenever I hear the old intro.
Post by batbelfry » Sun Sep 23, 2012 7:20 am
I still prefer the "seizure inducing" version to the mid-90's retooled version that ran on the USA Network and then later on Cartoon Network and Boomerang.
Post by NJ_Batfan » Sun Sep 23, 2012 10:57 am
This version (along with some remaining Superman episodes and the Superboy cartoons) is the last of the DC Filmations shows to get a DVD release. I'm guessing the 70s version saw release sooner because of Adam West and Burt Ward's voiceovers and therefore was the more marketable of the two Filmation Batman shows.
The Filmation company is no longer, so anything they licensed from DC is now DC's property. That is why Warner Archives can release the 70s Shazam series on DVD-R next month.
As for the well running dry, you're right. We've even seen Batman Meets Scooby Doo on DVD, so the 1968 Adventures of Batman is probably the holy grail. I'd welcome having an official DVD release,too, as it followed the flavor of the series, character designs close to Carmine Infantino's art style, and a goofy sense of fun.
Post by Catfan » Sun Sep 23, 2012 11:21 am
It may be worth a watch for me, as I never saw the series as a kid. I did not see a single episode until a couple of years ago. I thought the series had its fun, but stuck closer to the tone of the comic book than the 1966 series did.
AHTrois
Post by AHTrois » Tue Mar 22, 2016 2:27 pm
Back after a long hiatus!
Here are the lyrics to the original Batman-Superman Hour, as recalled by Ferd Appleby:
Batman! Su---perman!
Watch. out. villains. here. we. come!
(music then);
Penguin, riddler, jo-ker too...the caped cru-sader's af-ter youuu!
Batman!
(more music)
To combat crimmmeee, they work together;
Batman....Batman,,,,,
It's a birrddd, it's a plannee.......
It's Suu-perman!
It's Superman, The Man of Steel, it's Supeman!
Superman!
(announcer norm prescott): The Batman-Superman Hour!
Obviously one of the Holy Grails of Animation.
Oh...and by the way, the 1968 Filmation version has been released on DVD (albeit with the 1969 intro and original 1968 end credits):
adventures of batman dvd.jpg (46.72 KiB) Viewed 4935 times
The AHIII TV Web Shrine


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Q: Why do some webpages have jerky rendering Please see this link. Notice that the search bar first renders near the top of screen. Then aligns itself to be opposite to the logo. I think some css rules are causing this but I am unable to figure out. Can you please help me in pinpointing the reason. What one should avoid in the code to avoid/minimize this behaviour.

A: This almost aways happens when you have a css rule for blocking that is overwriting the previous. The best thing to do is to have the first thing in the css file to be blocking and normalizing. Every time you need something to be in a place or have a specific size, you should go to the blocking section of your code.
But the most preocupying part of the site you shown is the time it takes to load a fancybox css file.

A: This issue could just be how each browser loads and renders the content, and also on how fast your network can download content. Since there is many multiple Javascript and CSS files it can just be parsing them slowly and configuring the site as it goes while your network and browser is still downloading and loading everything.
I viewed it in Chrome and Firefox and it seemed to load fine for me.

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The American Business Awards are the U.S.A.'s premier business awards program. The Stevie Awards, as they are called, recognize outstanding performances in the workplace, honoring organizations of all types and sizes and the people behind them worldwide.
Empire Today, a leading provider of installed carpet, flooring, and window treatments, is introducing HOME Fresh carpet, the world's first and only 100 percent hypoallergenic, odor-neutralizing carpet. The innovative new carpet, which helps keeps your home clean and smelling fresh, is welcome news for the 68 percent of American households that own pets and 50 million Americans who report suffering from nasal allergies.
Empire Today®, a national leader in the installed carpet and flooring industry, was presented with a Gold Stevie® Award in the Company of the Year – Consumer Products – Durables category and a Bronze Stevie® Award in the Customer Service Department of the Year category in The 13th Annual American Business Awards in Chicago.
Fairfax, VA (Washington, D.C. area 9940 Fairfax Boulevard, Fairfax, VA Thursday, January 29 at 10 a.m.
Commack, NY (Long Island) 6037 Jericho Turnpike, Commack, NY Thursday, February 5 at 10 a.m.
Westbury, NY (Long Island) 49 Old Country Road, Westbury, NY Thursday, February 5 at 2 p.m.
To celebrate the grand opening of its retail stores, Empire Today, a giant in the carpet and flooring industry, will host grand opening events and ribbon-cutting ceremonies, open to the public. People are invited to tour the new stores and talk with flooring specialists demonstrating latest flooring trends. Additionally, guests can enter a sweepstakes for a chance to win $5,000 of flooring subject to Official Rules. No purchase necessary.
Empire Today®, LLC, a national leader in the installed home furnishings and home improvements industry, is proud to announce it was awarded the Better Business Bureau (BBB) of Atlanta, Athens and Northeast Georgia's 2014 Torch Award for Marketplace Ethics.
Help We Need a New Logo!
Empire Today®, LLC, America's largest shop-at-home seller and installer of carpet and flooring, launched a "We Need a New Logo" contest on September 17, 2013 at www.99designs.com. The contest is currently scheduled to end on September 23, 2013.
AE-DRAGO: The commercials, which return to Empire's humorous commercial history, were produced locally in Chicago market.
Empire Today announced today its expansion into the Chattanooga, Tennessee area.
Empire Today has expanded its services in New York state to the Rochester, Buffalo and Syracuse areas.
Empire Today is now serving the Memphis area in Tennessee. This expansion includes Memphis and its surrounding communities.
Empire Today was named a finalist in Company of the Year and Customer Service Department of the Year categories in The 2012 American Business Awards.
Empire Today has expanded service in Texas and is servicing the San Antonio, Austin, Waco-Temple-Bryan areas.
Empire Today Expands Service In The Midwest For Next Day, Carpet, Flooring & Window Treatments.
Empire Today has expanded its services into the state of Kansas and is now servicing the Kansas City area.
Empire Today has been awarded a multi-year contract to supply flooring products and services to participants of the U.S. Communities Government Purchasing Alliance.
Empire Today has expanded service in California and is servicing the Monterey area for its name-brand carpet and flooring.
Empire Today will partner with Rebuilding Together, Inc., the nation's leading nonprofit organization working to preserve affordable homeownership and revitalize communities.
Empire Today has expanded its service in Georgia and is now servicing the Columbus-Fort Benning area.
Empire Today is now servicing the Bakersfield and Fresno, California areas for its name-brand carpet and flooring.
Empire Today has expanded its services into the state of Kentucky, servicing the Louisville area.
Empire Today Begins Service In The Birmingham, Alabama Area For Next Day Carpet & Flooring.
Empire Today announces that it has expanded its services into the state of Alabama, servicing the Birmingham area.
Empire Today has expanded its services in Indiana and is now serving the Terre Haute area. Empire also services the Indianapolis area.
Empire Today has expanded its services in Arizona and is now serving the Tucson area. Empire also services the Phoenix area.
Empire Today has donated hundreds of used cell phones and accessory components to Cell Phones for Soldiers.
Empire Today has expanded its services in Massachusetts and is now serving the Springfield area.
Empire Today has expanded its services in South Carolina, serving the Greenville-Spartanburg and Columbia areas.
Empire Today, a national leader in the installed home improvements and home furnishings industry for over 50 years, is now servicing the St. Louis area.
Empire Today is saddened by the loss of Elmer Lynn Hauldren, better known as the inspiration for the Empire Man character.
CodeBlue announced today a strategic alliance with Empire Today, LLC. This new alliance provides the insurance industry with a comprehensive flooring program.
Habitat for Humanity International and Empire Today announced today a partnership in support of the organization's affordable-housing work.
Empire Today, LLC, was recently awarded an "A" rating from the new BBB grading system.
Empire Today, LLC, was awarded the 2009 Atlanta Better Business Bureau (BBB) Torch Award for Customer Service.
Empire Today, LLC, was awarded the Better Business Bureau (BBB) of Chicago & Northern Illinois Torch Award for Marketplace Ethics.
As the rush gets underway for last-minute holiday preparations, Empire Today is providing a quick solution for consumers who want to update their homes and freshen their décor.
Empire Today, LLC, a national leader in the installed home furnishings and home improvements industry, recently celebrated winning the prestigious national Stevie Award for Best Customer Service Organization.
Empire Today has launched a newly redesigned website, at www.empiretoday.com, featuring Immediate Online Appointment Setting and Click-to-Call live Customer Service interaction.
Empire Today has been ranked the #1 Specialty Flooring Retailer in the United States by Floor Covering Weekly.
Richmond Lands Newest Empire Today Location – #1 Flooring Company in U.S.
Empire Today is proud to announce the grand opening of its new location in Richmond VA.
Empire Today's iconic 'pitchman,' The Empire Man, will be on hand to throw out the first pitch as the Chicago Cubs host the St. Louis Cardinals at Wrigley Field.
Empire Today announces that Eleanor Essery, Installation Manager, Manchester, will participate in the 2007 Muscular Dystrophy Association (MDA) telethon.
Empire Today is proud to announce that 2007 marks the 30th anniversary of the introduction of its iconic television pitchman "The Empire Man."
Empire Today, one of the nation's most popular home furnishings and home improvement companies, has been honored by the Better Business Bureau (BBB) of Chicago & Northern Illinois.
Empire Today had reason to celebrate with its employees on Wednesday, March 29, as they reached their one-year anniversary in Junction City.


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HomeTechnologiesImplantsAnother Obesity Device Hits the Market
Another Obesity Device Hits the Market
Aspire Bariatrics gets FDA approval for an endoscopic device that prevents extra calories from being absorbed by the body.
Arundhati Parmar
Moderately or severely obese people have a few options should they wish to find a minimally invasive device that helps to lose weight.
This week FDA announced that it has approved the AspireAssist device from Aspire Bariatrics based in King of Prussia, PA. The device uses a gastric tube that is placed endoscopically that drains a portion of food ingested after every meal and is intended for patients who are 22 and older with a body mass index of 35 to 55.
The tube is connected to a disk-shaped port valve that lies outside the body, flush against the skin of the stomach. About 20 to 30 minutes after food is consumed, the patient attaches the device's external connector and tubing to the port valve, opens the valve and drains the contents directly into the toilet.
About 30% of the meal ingested is emptied or aspirated out thereby preventing those calories from being absorbed by the body.
"The AspireAssist approach helps provide effective control of calorie absorption, which is a key principle of weight management therapy," said Dr. William Maisel, deputy director for science and chief scientist in the FDA's Center for Devices and Radiological Health, in a statement. "Patients need to be regularly monitored by their health care provider and should follow a lifestyle program to help them develop healthier eating habits and reduce their calorie intake."
The device is designed such that it keeps track of the number of times the drain tube is connected to the port and automatically shuts of after 115 cycles, which roughly translates to five to six weeks of therapy. The patient has to return to the doctor's office to get a replacement device.
Data presented to the FDA compared 111 patients treated with AspireAssist and appropriate lifestyle therapy with 60 control patients who received only the lifestyle therapy. A year later, patients using AspireAssist lost an average of 12.1% of their total body weight compared to 3.6% for the control patients.
Both patient groups also saw small improvements in other conditions associated with obesity: diabetes and hypertension, as well as in their quality of life, according to the FDA.
The AspireAssist is one of several minimally invasive approaches to treating obesity, but while the process is reversible if desired, the device is intend to stay inside the patient as long as he or she desires under the direction of a physician.
Other recently approved obesity devices are more temporary in nature. Last July FDA approved ReShape Medical's gastric balloon device. The ReShape Dual Balloon are introduced in the body through the mouth and then inflated. The device is intended to help patients with a BMI of 30 to 40 see successful and sustained weight loss. It works by filling up space inside the person's stomach forcing obese patients to eat small meals.
The temporary device is inside a patient for a period of six months during which the company works with each patient to make them understand the principles of portion control, diet and exercise.
Other companies developing devices using gastric balloons are Obalon and Allurion that are not available in the U.S. yet. A fourth company is using a neuromodulation approach to treat obesity. EnteroMedics' Maestro Rechargeable System was finally approved in January 2015 after a protracted effort. The system implants a pacemaker-like device that is implanted under the skin. Leads extend out from that device and transmit mild electrical signals to the vagus nerve, which controls hunger and the feeling of being full.
While all these devices represent new options for patients who may have been struggling with being overweight for years, it remains to be seen whether they can help patients maintain a healthy weight over a long period of time.
Here's how AspireAssist works:
Osseosurface Electronics Capture Real-Time Bone Data
Medtech in a Minute: FDA Flags a Risk with Medtronic's Micra Pacemaker
Another Defining Moment for Minimally Invasive Glaucoma Surgery


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Anisodactylus nigerrimus is a species of ground beetle in the family Carabidae. It is found in North America.

References

Further reading

Anisodactylus
Articles created by Qbugbot
Beetles described in 1831
Taxa named by Pierre François Marie Auguste Dejean

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaWikipedia


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A new mix that focuses more on the deeper shades of house. I tend to love my funk and disco... so there's plenty of that too!
A few of my favorite tracks from 2015.
I came across some (embarrassing) old pictures recently and it had me reminiscing about going to underground parties back in the day. We would never say "rave" as, even in the early 90s, that sounded too cheesy and cliche. We just went to parties.
For me, it started in Germany in 1993. I went to a party and danced my face off - no drugs, no drinking, just pure musical bliss for 4 hours. I was a wee lassie at that time and could barely take it all in. While in Europe I picked up a ton of tapes and CDs… David Morales, Masters at Work, Future Sound of London, Orbital and loads more. But then I got back to New Mexico and had to really hunt the music and the parties down. They were there, you just had to look… and I was prepared to look. The whole Wicked crew came out frequently, Mark Farina, Doc Martin - they all used to throw down in the desert with us. We'd drive as far as Denver or Phoenix just to hear some good music, and made it out to SF whenever we could.
By the time I moved to the Bay Area in 2000, I was already too old to go to the warehouse raves and the music I liked had moved into the clubs and into more intimate underground parties. But I had a good run!
Make sure you're not one of them and be responsible for your actions!
I like to think it was more than the drugs. There is legitimate unity in a room all pulsing to the same beat.
Bad day? Go put on a great record and dance around your room.
If it doesn't help, you might be a robot.
Many of my fashion choices were highly suspect - but none more so than the 45 inch waist JNCOs.
Got some raver memories to share? Bring em on!
Whether you're a dedicated hip hop head, or have a passing interest in rap, I guarantee you will enjoy this book. The premise is simple (but complicated?) - choose the most important rap song from every year since 1979. What people consider "Most Important" is awfully subjective, though. The author posits that it's a song that changes the route of the genre, introduces a new element to the music, and/or had an impact on society. You're not really meant to agree with the author's choices, in fact, he wants you to disagree and definitely encourages debate.
Shea Serrano's writing style is gut-bustingly funny and this book offers a lot of entertainment value for your dollar. It's also gorgeously illustrated and chock full of infographics like this one. Please notice the axes: Ostentatious vs. Cool and Intimidating vs. Approachable.
Like if an angry rhino began morphing into a human and then stopped halfway through and so that's just how he was stuck.
- The "What this song is about" intro to each chapter.
Cash, and how it rules things, but also how maybe it doesn't rule anything that's really important.
It's about where three guys are coming from and how they feel about things and the crimes that have already committed or will commit if they feel they have adequate reason to do so.
Nuthin but a G Thang by Dr. Dre featuring Snoop Dogg What this song is about: How Dr. Dre, Snoop Dogg, and the Death Row label were unfadeable, so please don't try to fade them.
So, yeah, do yourself a favor and pick up a copy of this one.


The benefits associated with eating wholegrain ingredients are well-established and include reducing the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), type 2 diabetes and many cancers. However, wholegrain intake in the UK remains low with 45% of the population eating less than one serving per day and 18% eating none over a four-day period. A public health initiative is clearly needed to substitute foods containing whole grains for those containing significant amounts of refined grains in order to improve health, save resources and reduce total and CVD-related mortality.
A significant obstacle to a successful public health initiative is the absence of a national and international definition of a wholegrain food. The UK Institute of Grocery Distribution recommend that a food should have at least 8g of wholegrain ingredients per serving to be called whole grain. However, this recommendation is non-binding and the content of other nutrients are not specified in relation to this resulting in some foods, currently described as wholegrain, also having high levels of sugar or fat. There is international recognition of this problem with bodies such as the UK Scientific Advisory Committee on Nutrition and the US Dietary Guidelines Technical Advisory Committee calling for the development and implementation of a definition of wholegrain foods.
In 2013, researchers in Boston, USA, compared five different criteria to identify which represented the healthiest American wholegrain-based foods. They found that foods with a carbohydrate:fibre ratio <10:1 contained the least sugar, sodium and trans-fats. Following on from these findings, our recent research has evaluated the nutrient quality of breads and breakfast cereals sold in the UK with a <10:1 carbohydrate:fibre ratio. A total of 162 breads and 266 breakfast cereals sold at the four major UK supermarkets were identified as meeting this criterion and their nutritional quality was compared with the Food Standards Agency traffic light system. Breads which met the <10:1 criterion typically contained medium fat, low saturated fat, low sugar and medium salt. Breakfast cereals typically contained medium fat, low saturated fat, high sugar and low salt. However, one important limitation of the criterion was its inability to distinguish between foods that met the criterion due to their wholegrain ingredients and those that met it due to the added fibre contained in other ingredient such as fruit, nuts and seeds.
Based upon these results, we concluded that the <10:1 approach helps to identify wholegrain foods that are likely to be healthier and this criterion could be used in public health messages and supplement the front-of-pack traffic light labelling currently in use.
The full article 'Evaluating the ≤10:1 wholegrain criterion in identifying nutrient quality and health implications of UK breads and breakfast cereals' in Public Health Nutrition is available to download for free until 11th February 2018.
Click here to discover more Editorial Highlight's from Public Health Nutrition.


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Brent Corrigan Declined To Participate In James Franco's 'King Cobra' Movie
Porn star Brent Corrigan said last week that he declined to participate in a James Franco-produced movie about the murder of adult film producer Bryan Kocis.
King Cobra is based on the 2007 murder of Kocis, head of Cobra Video, the studio which had an exclusive contract with Corrigan, real name Sean Paul Lockhart.
"The internet has been a buzz regarding some recent news that a movie is being filmed right now in New York State chronicling the Bryan Kocis murder and the early days of my adult career," Corrigan wrote in a Facebook post.
"I was originally approached to be a part of the film as a consultant and the cast. I was asked to play a small part in the film and declined the role."
Corrigan said that he's writing a book about his experience, which he suggested would be published in the coming year.
"I look forward to finally telling my story, beginning, middle and end, with an earnest stroke," he added.
Porn star Harlow Raymond Cuadra and Joseph Manuel Kerekes, who produced their own adult films, wanted Kocis to let Corrigan star in one of their videos opposite Cuadra, but Kocis would not let his star model out of his contract. Cuadra and Kerekes were convicted of Kocis' murder.
(Related: Gay porn star Cuadra to spend life in jail.)
Garrett Clayton is set to play Corrigan in King Cobra, while Christian Slater will play Kocis. Molly Ringwald will also appear in the film.


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Who Are These People?
They told us we were the "salt of the Earth". They said we were a "peculiar people".
Well, maybe they were right. We were as peculiar as hell. But salt of the earth?
It was awfully good hype, and it was straight out of the Bible. But what did it mean, exactly? The explanation I remember was that, in our small numbers, we were like the salt in a dish of food, one part per several hundred thousand. If a dish were 100% salt it would be inedible, but by being few in number we "salted" the population of the world in approximately the same proportion that real salt is applied to food.
Sounds good, doesn't it? Until you realize that, by that logic, God should never want to save more than a few thousand people. It makes more sense that God would want to save everyone (100%), but then the dish would be pure salt and therefore inedible.
Analogies are such risky business! Especially in the face of simple logic.
But when you have a brainwashed membership you can tell them pretty much anything and they'll swallow it.
So who were these people, these Worldwiders? Why were they such a small group? Why was God incapable of attracting more than he did? At its peak, the Worldwide Church of God was composed (we were told) of just about 100,000 members. When you consider that many of these were single individuals (no family attending), and that others consisted of married couples with from one to six kids, you can extrapolate, at most, maybe half a million people (baptized and unbaptized).
That isn't very many, when you call yourself a worldwide organization. Mormons have millions, Jehovah's Witnesses have millions, and they are considered cults. We were also called a cult, but why were we so small?
The reason, of course, is that as a cult we went a bit too far. Mormons keep Christmas and Easter and worship on Sunday. JW's also worship on Sunday (though they decry pagan holidays). We not only decried pagan holidays, we observed Jewish ones, including the weekly sabbath. Maybe that was part of the reason.
(The official explanation, of course, was that God is not calling everyone now. But that was a lot of crap. The real truth is that very few people thought so little of themselves that they would swallow Armstrong's line of theology.)
When I left the Worldwide Church of God I spent a great deal of time mulling over and studying a number of issues, and one of these was the simple question: who are these people? Why are they here? What attracted them to a life of self-denial and poverty? Who in his/her right mind would agree to pay up to 30% of his gross income in tithes?
I'm not sure I know the entire answer. I'm not trained in psychology, but based on some personal observations (and "leaning to my own understanding") I can perhaps sort out part of the truth.
In his excellent book The True Believer, Eric Hoffer points out that lunatic-fringe organizations can always find members, usually from the ranks of the dispossessed, the unwanted, and the hopeless. Hoffer likely never heard of Herbert Armstrong (his book was written right after WWII, so he was more likely thinking of Nazis or Communists), but reading his book is like looking into a bowl of Worldwiders. Certainly the Worldwide Church of God is/was composed of an inordinate number of the dispossessed, the unwanted, and the hopeless. But I think the answer is more complex than that.
My own mother was drawn to HWA because of a discontentment with her own Pentecostal religion. She saw large segments of the Bible that were never preached. She saw hypocrisy in her church, its membership, and its leadership. She was looking for a change, and she found one. Herbert Armstrong was the ultimate con man, for he said, "Don't believe me! Believe your Bible!" Then he would quote the Bible, passages that many people, including most Christians, had never seen before. And sure enough, when he quoted the Bible, he quoted exactly the words that were written there. As a result, my mother thought she had "proved" that HWA was telling the truth--simply because he quoted the Bible exactly.
Never mind the interpretation of what he had quoted.
Not only my mother, but thousands of others "proved" that Herbert was right via this same mechanism. Thus a lot of people became convinced he was right simply because he read portions of the Bible (mainly prophecy) that other churches never touched. He also pointed out the very real inconsistencies in orthodox Christianity, ridiculed them, and led people away from them.
But it didn't work on everyone. Not everyone who heard HWA's voice on the airwaves was "called by God"--that is, not everyone swallowed his hype. What was it that caused tens of thousands of them, my mom included, to buy into it? Was it the Holy Spirit? The personal call of the Almighty?
Or something else entirely?
Again, I don't know all the answers. But let's take a look anyway.
First of all, I have to believe that probably half of all the Worldwiders I knew were honest, sincere people. That figure may be high, but I will allow fifty percent. These were people who, for whatever personal reasons they may have had, somehow got hooked into the cult and honestly believed it was the right place to be. Many of these were people with oppression in their backgrounds. The dispossessed, the downtrodden, people searching for truth and finding deception instead. Many were motivated by fear, another of HWA's mechanisms. Fear of tribulation, fear of nuclear war, fear of Basil Wolverton's graphic pen- and-ink illustrations in many publications, most notably 1975 In Prophecy. Fear motivated me my entire life, until the day I discovered it was all a hoax. Fear got me there (my mother's fear, for I was only a child at the time) and fear kept me there as an adult, married and with kids of my own.
Many of these sincere believers were escaping something in their past. I can think of several who had miserable childhoods, overbearing fathers, or oppressive marriages. Many of those who came in the 1950s were survivors of the Great Depression and/or veterans of WWII. They had seen enough misery to last a lifetime, and wanted a guarantee that they could escape whatever bleak future lay in store for mankind. Armstrong used their fear to subdue them, then to extort every cent he could get from the fruit of their (often manual) labors.
I knew another man who came in 1979. As a young man he had robbed banks for a living. He had also spent some 16 years behind bars, and while in Leavenworth Federal Penitentiary he heard HWA on the radio, became a Worldwider, and upon his release became a pillar in our local church. This man--I'll call him Joe--believed that God had called him out of a life of self-destructive sin into a new life with a glorious future. But certainly Joe is not unique. Many men who ran afoul of the law in their youth have subsequently converted to some form of Christianity when their unlawful ways landed them in a dungeon. Joe could as easily have been "saved" by Jehovah's Witnesses, Catholics, Muslims, or any of a variety of fundamentalist Christian sects. It was only chance that led him to follow Armstrong out of the cellblock instead. (Though he is still a Worldwider, I have to say that Joe is one of the finest men I have ever met. If ever there were a true example of "pure Christian" manhood, Joe would be the poster boy. I would trust him with my life, even today.)
Another significant group were what we might now call "single moms". Most of these were either divorced with children or were living with an "unconverted mate". Many of these were also sincere, but certainly not all. Out of our local congregation of 300+ members I can think of perhaps 20 such people who were in it only for whatever financial assistance they could get (yes, third tithe was occasionally paid out). These people used the church just as surely as the church used the rest of us. They paid no tithes, contributed nothing but gossip and dissension, and made money off the deal at the same time.
Not to pick on women, we also had several men who were similar in category. One man I remember (let's call him Ralph) had four or five kids and after about age forty never worked a day in his life. Yet two of his kids attended AC and graduated. Ralph was a freeloader of the worst sort. He kept his family in poverty, borrowed money from other members, moved in whenever he could (a few actually allowed this!), and somehow got his kids to AC. He sucked up in disgusting fashion, annoyed everyone in sight with his bullish opinions, and generally made himself a nuisance.
When Glen White came to our area he shut down the third tithe gravy train to most of the abusers. During his five year residency an amazing number of leeches simply disappeared, either dropping out of church or leaving the area for greener pastures. Ralph moved to the coast and spent the five years in another church area. During that time (as related to me by a deacon I knew who lived over there), Ralph still did not work. He was "disabled". Yet he was seen playing volleyball at a beach party. The following sabbath the minister apparently delivered a sermon about people who were not willing to work yet were able to play strenuous sports. The week after that sermon Ralph came to church leaning on a cane. The week after that he showed up on crutches. The week after that he was in a wheelchair!
Then Glen White was run out of town and two weeks later Ralph was back. He was still there when I left. The last I heard he had a stroke while attending the Feast of Tabernacles in Sweden. (How in the hell did he get to Sweden? The son of a bitch never worked! I worked my whole life and paid tithes my whole life, but I've never been to Sweden! Obviously he conned someone into financing his trip with "excess" second tithe.) Most of the other freeloaders also surfaced again after White was transferred.
A third group that was well represented would be what I would have to call simply Losers. At a guess, I think maybe 30% of the church consisted of losers (many of these overlap some of the other categories--some losers were freeloaders and probably many were also sincere). Included were men who believed it was proper to browbeat their wives (and found biblical support for it in Worldwide Church of God doctrine); people with really radical personalities whom you would normally cross the street to avoid; complete nerds; educated men who had degrees in everything but never worked; and just about everything else you couldn't imagine.
Many factors combine to make an individual. The way a person was raised, the circumstances of his childhood, disease, abuse, malnutrition, bullies, teachers, preachers, classmates, accidents--thousands of things can affect the way a person turns out, how a person thinks. Many, even most, of these factors are beyond the control of an individual. Yet the net result is often that a person is worthless. Obnoxious. Undesirable. To be pitied, certainly, but still a Loser.
Pasadena was full of them, mostly single males, but the local areas were not spared, either. One man I knew must have had an IQ able to boil water. He attended AC but never graduated. He lived with his mother until she died, then drifted in and out of the area, worked at the college for several years, finally drifted back home to stay. He was a bookworm to the nth degree, devouring all manner of scholarly works, proved back in the 1970s that HWA was full of crap, yet he never left. He lived with one or another of the local brethren, working as a window washer (when he worked at all). He almost got married once, but he and his fiancee had a falling out before a wedding could be arranged--to wit, she thought he should be employed. He disagreed.
Another man had been a college professor. His wife was a health care specialist. She worked, he didn't. He sat home and studied all day long, living off his wife's labors. It took no genius in domestic affairs to notice that their marriage was on the rocks, yet they were too old to start over. Their kids were grown and gone. She was abrasive and generally rude (understandable, considering who she was married to), he was reclusive and petulant. Yet he always dominated TableTopics in club, expounding obscure data to knock down the other guy's theory. No one could ever tell if he knew what he was talking about or not.
Yet another man loved to corner you at a social function and tell you all about his demon possession. He claimed to have a "family demon" (of course he was cured now), and it was his only claim to fame. His demon possession gave him validation as a human being, I guess. Certainly his personality did not. (His brother, a somewhat more normal specimen, told me privately that it was all bullshit. He knew nothing about a family demon.)
There was a black woman who hated white people, a handsome young Nazi who hated blacks, and a young Mexican who hated Mexicans. One newly married woman loved to tell people how she had been raped at age six by a man ten times her age. (It probably happened, but who wants to hear about it every week?)
We had a one-legged child molester who, on holy days, went around handing out candy to the little kids. Don Billingsley, our pastor at the time, made an announcement one day that children should not take candy from adult members of the church "because it might cause them to trust strangers" who were not in the church. Good advice, but thinly veiled as to the real reason. Sure enough, the first holy day after that announcement, I caught this bastard giving my kids candy. I called him on it and he got real smart with me. They "warned him and warned him", but they never threw him out. I guess his tithing record must have been pretty good. (The last time I saw him was on a holy day in 1992, sitting outside with a beautiful redhead sitting on his lap. She was 5 years old. Her parents stood nearby watching with rapture in their eyes. I had always thought they weren't very bright, but I had no idea they were complete idiots.)
The fourth group that comes to mind is probably the smallest group, yet in its way the most insidious. This group could be called the Takers, the Opportunists, or the Conquerors.
You've probably seen them. They come into the church like a whirlwind, sometimes a single male, sometimes a young couple, sometimes a family. They may already be successful on the outside. They are hailed as new members and take the place by storm. Within days their names are on everybody's lips, people swoon at their feet, and within six months he is a deacon, with two years he is a minister. And chances are that, within 5 years at most, he will be on the HQ staff.
These people, in my opinion, are not deceived at all. They are the Vini Vidi Vici crowd. Wherever they go they are looking for an angle. How does this place work? Who is in charge? Who has the power? How do I get it?
And they do. They go straight for the throat. They do or say whatever is required. They can pray in public like veterans. They can speak like politicians. They are as humble as they can publicly be. They are as corrupt as anyone in Pasadena.
I could tell you about several such individuals, but one in particular sticks in my mind. He had been career army, holding the rank of captain when he retired. Still in his late thirties, he was fit, handsome, articulate, and everyone loved him. Including me. He never did a thing to me personally, but at a basketball tournament in 1992 I saw him cheat in favor of his local church's team (he was a referee, both in and out of the church). I saw him do it. I have proof on videotape. It was so blatant that four ministers who had sons, stepsons, or grandsons playing on the losing team were beside themselves with fury. Yet not one of them was man enough to stand up in public and call him on it. This man had been appointed by the district minister and the ministers, though they knew he was cheating, were afraid to buck "authority". He had only been in the church three years, was already a deacon and was being considered for higher ordination.
We were always told that God had called the "weak of the world" (a friend of mine paraphrased this statement as "the weak and the weird", not without good cause). I guess this explained why so many of the members were people I would never have associated with by choice. Many of them were the lowest of the low. Others were simply too depressing to be around. A few were professional people, a few had money, but they were generally aloof from the rest, and generally got ordained before too long.
In spite of this assessment, I lost a lot of good friends when I left the Worldwide. I didn't turn my back on them, but they no longer wanted anything to do with me. They were still true believers, and their programming told them that I was now suspect, no longer to be trusted, actually a threat to their spiritual salvation. Nothing I could do about that. When I found out the truth, I had to leave. I owed it to myself and to my kids. I had to go. But thankfully, about a dozen of my closer friends also left within a year of my exit, so at least I was able to maintain relations with most of them.
Salt of the earth? No. Just another collection of unfortunates of all kinds. Some good, some bad, some sincere, some dishonest, but all victims in one way or another. No matter how we got there, or what we hoped to gain (if anything), all of us, in one way or another, got hosed by Herbert DoubleYou Armstrong.
And Joseph DoubleYou Tkach.
And little tiny baby joe w. tkach.
In that respect, at least, we are all the same.
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The Energy & Environment Legal Institute (E&E Legal), on behalf of its members, comments that EPA's proposed rule to control greenhouse gases under the Clean Air Act's New Source Performance Standards is unconstitutional as a substantive due process violation of the Fifth Amendment because it constitutes a naked transfer of wealth from one sector of the electric generation industry to other electric generation entities of that industry. Further, the proposed rule is unconstitutional as a due process violation of the Fifth Amendment, in the form of a violation of equal protection, because the rule is intended to increase the cost of electricity to those least able to pay that cost, because EPA knows of this inequality, because EPA knows the targets of that inequality are protected minorities, and because the value of carbon to the society is greater than the cost to the society; and thus, EPA acts with the intent to injure protected minorities.
The proposed rule constitutes both a facial violation and an as-applied violation of the due process clause of the Fifth Amendment. Based on EPA's own description of its rule, there are no circumstances where the rule is valid, and thus is a facial violation of due process. Also, the rule deprives specific individuals of their constitutional rights. This rule doesn't withstand a substantive due process challenge because there is no legitimate state interest that the court could rationally conclude is served by the rule. EPA can't defend against a substantive due process challenge because it has no plausible governmental interest sufficient to pass constitutional muster. Through this comment we warn EPA that a rational basis review isn't toothless and the Agency's failure to proffer reasons for its regulation that are not rational condemns the proposed rule to its unconstitutional status.
The sole rationale for EPA's rule is the intent to protect the public from the effects of catastrophic climate change which EPA asserts will arise from increases of carbon dioxide. EPA offers no more than its reliance on the work of others, committing multiple logical fallacies. These include, appeal to authority, appeal to belief, appeal to consequences of a belief, and ignoring a common cause.
Ultimately, EPA bases its illogics on computer output from models that assume a significant relationship between carbon dioxide and global temperature. In so doing, it alleges several events it claims the rule will help prevent. These include the prediction that seas will rise faster, that this sea rise will cause "geopolitical hotspots," including mass migrations (presumably of people) and the need to increase security in the Arctic, apparently of the northern coast of Alaska where there is no significant economic activity and no projections of any. And the prediction that warming cold lead to increases in heavy rainfall and decreases in crop yields – a prediction that fails to take account of the positive value of carbon dioxide on crop growth and the benefit of more rain, especially in the arid west and southwest of the United States. EPA also accepts the prediction that increased temperatures, but not increased rainfall, will cause more wildfires, and eventually cause the mass extinction of the human race. EPA does not ignore the rest of the animal world, relying on the alarmism of predictions that the oceans will further acidify, despite that the oceans are not acidic in the first place and that there is no evidence that they ever will be acidic. In simpler terms, EPA relies on predictions that increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will increase global temperatures in a manner that endangers human health and the environment.
EPA claims it has taken into account recent scientific advances and that none of them undermine their 2009 Endangerment Finding. They have not, and this is especially true for the most important single assumption they have made – that carbon dioxide will significantly increase global temperature, the sole driving force behind the predictions of the parade of horribles upon which EPA relies. Note especially, EPA did not conduct any original analysis. It simply relied upon others and their predictive models. What EPA has not taken into consideration is the fast moving advances in understanding the low climate sensitivity to carbon dioxide, generally defined as the earth's average surface temperature from a doubling of the atmospheric carbon dioxide content.
Specifically, EPA has not incorporated information from: Loehle, C., 2014, "A minimal model for estimating climate sensitivity," Ecological Modelling, 276, 80-84; or, Spencer, R.W., and W. D. Braswell, 2013. "The role of ENSO in global ocean temperature changes during 1955-2011 simulated with a 1D climate model," Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, doi:10.1007/s13143-014- 0011-z. Nor has EPA assessed the emerging facts that show their reliance on the IPCC AR5 climate models' climate sensitivity is grossly in error as documented in 18 peer-reviewed studies. The upper 95% confidence interval of eight of the studies is at or below the climate sensitivity assumed in the IPCC AR5 models. Twelve of the studies estimate the climate sensitivity below the lower 95% confidence interval of the IPCC AR5 models, and all 18 studies estimate climate sensitivity significantly below the mean value used by the IPCC AR5 models.
Any model is an abstraction from and simplification of the real world. Whenever the methodology is challenged, however, the agency must explain the assumptions and methodology used in preparing the model and provide a complete analytic defense. This EPA has not done and cannot do, much less in a manner that would satisfy the scientific and analytical principles of the Data Quality Act and its implementing guidances. Nor may EPA rely on an appeal to authority or any other logical fallacy it has otherwise used.
EPA's reliance on the models of the IPCC AR5 report also impeaches all its alarmist conclusions because the lynchpin of them all are the IPCC AR5 assumptions of climate sensitivity. That failure to use and apply current scientific knowledge, and EPA's refusal to eliminate reliance on the IPCC AR5 models is a fatal error that destroys the sole underlying basis for its regulatory proposal. This failure places the basis for the regulatoryaction outside the zone of reasonableness necessary to justify the regulation. When examining the mischief against which the regulation is aimed, where there is no mischief of the kind EPA assumes, EPA cannot reasonably or rationally intend to address the mischief at which the Clean Air Act or the proposed regulations are aimed.
Based on its own statements, EPA does not actually intend to control the mischief of climate change through its proposed rules. EPA admits the regulatory effort is entirely nugatory, stating "even in the absence of this rule, (i) existing and anticipated economic conditions mean that few, if any, solid fossil fuel-fired EGUs will be built in the foreseeable future; and (ii) electricity generators are expected to choose new generation technologies (primarily natural gas combined cycle) that would meet the proposed standards. Therefore, based on the analysis presented in Chapter 5 of the RIA, the EPA projects that this proposed rule will result in negligible CO2 emission changes, quantified benefits, and costs by 2022."Thus, the proposed rule is unnecessary to prevent any assumed climate change calamities, and therefore, EPA cannot have the intent to to do so. If EPA promulgates the rule, it must be on the basis of some other intent and the other intentions fall afoul of the Constitution.
EPA's presumption is that electricity generators will "primarily" choose to use electricity generation based on natural gas, but this presumption ignores the 30 states that have renewable energy mandates that require non-hydrocarbon generation (see, E&E Legal's "Interactive RPS Profile Map" and included into this regulatory record by reference) ; and, EPA ignores the fact that those mandates cost more (see, e.g., "The Hidden Cost of Wind Energy", E&E Legal Institute 2012, and "The High Cost of Renewable-Electricity Mandates" Manhattan Institute 2012, and the extensive bibliography in the Manhattan Institute report, both reports and all bibliographic entries included into this regulatory record by reference.) This comment places EPA on record as knowing both.
EPA also ignores the requirement for diversity in generation that all state public utility commissions demand for base-load electricity generation. This need for diversity has recently been seen as essential in Texas when cold weather forced the loss of natural gas generation, causing significant loss of power across the state. Because coal is significantly less expensive than other (non-natural gas) alternatives, it remains a valuable generation source for decades to come.
Estimates of the social cost of carbon that take negative values (i.e., because on net carbon creates more benefits than costs) document the relative value of using coal to generate electricity and demonstrate that the benefits of coal outweigh any reasonably estimated harm to public health and the environment, as discussed above. See also, Idso, Craig, The Positive Externalities of Carbon Dioxide," Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change (2013), and see, Patrick Michaels and Chip Knappenberger (Center for the Study of Science, Cato Institute). "Comment on 'Technical Support Document, Technical Update of the Social Cost of Carbon for Regulatory Impact Analysis Under Executive Order 12866," January 27, 2014.
VI of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 for Environmental Regulation," Boston College Environmental Law Review (Feb. 2001).
Because EPA admits it does not and cannot intend to reduce carbon dioxide emissions and admits its regulations impose greater harm on minorities, women and the elderly through the economic impacts of higher cost electricity and the loss of benefits associated with carbon use, this proposal can only exhibit an intent to harm minorities, women and the elderly, there being no other intent manifest from the rule.
The proposed rule is a naked preference for non-coal electricity generation, a naked transfer of wealth from the coal industry to natural gas and renewable energy generators, and one lacking in a rational basis and outside the zone of reasonableness. Both the irrationality of the proposal and the intent to limit equal protection to minorities, women and the elderly constitute substantive are both facially and as-applied violation of the due process clause of the Fifth Amendment, harming the society at large and members of the Energy & Environment Legal Institute, the proposed rule is unconstitutional.


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Home . Summer 2007 Issue . Lessons Learned . Large motor impact
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Large motor impact
Author: Russell W. Patterson
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The two main goals of a transmission line protection scheme are to successfully clear faults and to successfully reclose the circuit once the fault has been cleared. The chances of success are greatly reduced in the presence of significant tapped motor load if the presence of this motor load isn't properly considered and proper scheme adjustments made.
On August 6, 2005 TVA experienced the trip of a distribution substation by a misapplied underfrequency load shedding relay (UFLS) that operated on the decaying frequency of the regenerative voltage from motors at a large pulp and paper mill located adjacent to the distribution substation. Figure 1 below shows the arrangement with the mill and distribution substation tapped on the same line. The machines shown are representative of the entire plant motor load as a whole.
Figure 2 is an oscillograph captured by the microprocessor UFLS relay at the distribution substation showing the A-phase voltage along with measured frequency at the distribution substation low-voltage bus (13kV) during the event. The underfrequency element in the relay is already asserted prior to the beginning of the oscillograph as the frequency had already decayed to just under 52Hz by that time. The frequency estimated by the relay increases at points, due to the unsuccessful high-speed reclose by the utility breakers (just after the 0.1 second mark) and the subsequent interaction between the various motors at the neighboring pulp and paper mill.
Figure 2. A-phase voltage and frequency measured at distribution 13kV bus.
This event was analyzed and fully described in the paper "Analysis of Underfrequency Load Shedding and Reclosing into a Motor Load on a TVA 161 kV Transmission Line" presented to the 9th Annual Fault and Disturbance Analysis Conference May 1-2, 2006 in Atlanta, GA. The analysis of this operation brought to light, as most any thorough event analysis does, the discovery of other hidden problems.
When faults occur on the transmission line the utility protective relays at each end detect the fault and initiate tripping of their respective breaker (BKR in Figure 1). If the transmission line is protected by pilot relaying (affording high-speed breaker tripping at both ends for faults along the entire length of the line) then it likely has high-speed reclosing implemented as well. High-speed reclosing is delayed a minimum time after the breakers have opened to allow the fault ionization path to dissipate before attempting to reclose the breakers and restore the circuit. A typical high-speed reclose at 161kV occurs 20 cycles after the breakers have tripped and is a "blind" reclose meaning it occurs regardless of line condition (as opposed to a synchronism check reclose or a dead-line reclose).
In the case pictured in Figure 2, the voltage on the transmission line doesn't go to zero immediately after the utility breakers are opened due to the tapped motor load. This effect is due to the motor's regenerative (sometimes called "residual") voltage that exists due to the fact that the machine rotors are still spinning and a decaying rotor flux is present. In induction machines this flux is a trapped flux present at the moment the utility breakers disconnect the motors. In small motors it will generally decay in a few cycles but in larger machines it may require several seconds to decay to zero. In the case of synchronous machines this flux is due to the presence of field current and will likely result in much longer sustained regenerative voltage. The effects of the rotor drive train and connected load are important as well. Some loads tend to quickly retard the rotors rotation while others tend to sustain rotation. There are many factors that influence what this regenerative voltage will be and its rate of decay such as connected load inertia, mix of induction and synchronous machines, mix of small and large machines, mix of low and high-speed motors, etc. Most authors on the subject are in agreement that reclosing should not occur on motors unless their voltage has decayed below 25-33% which may require several seconds for industrial motor load typically found in plants direct served from transmission level voltages (steel mills, pulp and paper plants etc.).
The presence of the regenerative voltage acts to maintain the ionization path such that the subsequent high-speed reclosing results in a re-establishment of the fault. This requires the utility protection to initiate tripping of the breakers again to clear the fault, making the high-speed reclose unsuccessful. This fruitless attempt to re-energize the transmission line results in additional fault duty on the utility equipment with no benefit.
Beyond the negative impact on the utility protection system is the negative impact on the connected motor load. Immediately after the motors are disconnected from the utility grid they begin to slow down. As they do they begin to go out-of-step with the rotating mass of the collective utility generation. By the time the high-speed reclose occurs the regenerative voltage on the motors and the utility equivalent voltage are out-of-phase. If the regenerative voltage is still above approximately 25% then this out-of-phase reclosing can result in immediate or cumulative damage to the motors due to excessive current stresses on the windings. A typical design maximum momentary voltage of a motor is 125%. If the regenerative voltage on the motor is 25% of normal and it is 180º out-of-phase with the utility when the high-speed reclose occurs it will experience an instantaneous voltage of 125% of normal.
The following is a plot of RMS voltages captured by a power quality monitor on the low-voltage motor bus of the pulp and paper mill for the August 6, 2005 event (note that time zero in this plot isn't the same point in time as the time zero in Figure 1). This plant has a mix of large induction and large, slow-speed synchronous generators. The plot shows the motor regenerative voltage immediately after the utility system breakers trip and the subsequent unsuccessful high-speed reclose attempt. Approximately 5 seconds later a second reclose attempt occurs and is successful.
The high-speed reclose is evident near the 0.4 second mark (approximately 23 cycles after initial trip).
Figure 3. First 2 seconds of RMS voltages captured by PQ monitor during event.
The monitored bus is the 4,160V motor bus (2,400V phase-neutral). At the start of the plot (t = 0) the voltage is near 1.0 per-unit. Immediately after the transmission line breakers trip you can see that the bus voltage is maintained by the decaying regenerative motor voltage. Approximately 23 cycles into the event (t = 0.38 seconds) the transmission line breakers reclose to energize the line. They immediately trip back out as the fault ionization path has been maintained by the regenerative motor voltage and the fault arc is re-established. This reclose also hammers the connected motors with an out-of-phase reclose. The next reclose in the transmission system protection scheme is referred to as a dead-line reclose and occurs just after 6 seconds (t = 6.1) and requires that the line be dead prior to breakers closing. This reclose is successful and service is restored to the tapped loads.
Figure 4 below shows another plot of data captured on a different day by this same PQ monitor when the plant was disconnected from the utility grid (no automatic reclosing occurred). This is a good graphic showing the regenerative motor voltage and its decay as motors spin down and contactors dropout etc.
Had a high-speed reclose occurred (around the t = 0.38 seconds mark) the regenerative voltage on the motors would have been just under 60% of nominal. Depending on the phase angle of this regenerative voltage relative to the utility system voltage this likely would have resulted in a serious out-of-phase reclose event.
Figure 4. First 2 seconds of RMS voltages captured during plant disconnect from the utility grid..
For example, if the regenerative voltage at this point in time had a magnitude of 60% at a relative phase angle of 120º and the power system being at 100% voltage and zero phase angle the resulting voltage suddenly applied across the motors would have been as calculated below.
This reclose would have resulted in 140% voltage being suddenly applied to the motors (recall that motors have a typical maximum design voltage of 125%).
In many cases the industrial plant engineers are not aware of the issues related to fault clearing and reclosing at the utility voltage level. They may not even be aware of the reclosing setup used on the feed to their plant or of the potential for immediate or cumulative damage to their motors that can occur during reclosing. Furthermore, in some cases the high-speed reclosing is not necessary for healthy utility operations (depending on stability requirements between the two utility buses among other things) and delaying or disabling this reclose may benefit both parties. For the utility it reduces the wear and tear on their equipment. For the industrial plant it reduces the wear-and-tear on their motors and subsequent risk to their process.
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BOCA RATON, Fla. -- Steve Yzerman remains heavily involved with the Tampa Bay Lightning in his role as senior adviser to general manager Julien BriseBois, but it remains to be seen what he will do when his contract expires after this season.
"He's missed maybe a handful of home games. He's been at pretty much every home game. Usually when we're home for a homestand, he comes in from Detroit. He's been at some of our road games. I went and scouted with him to a number of (American Hockey League) weekends, junior games. So, he's been very involved.
"I talk to him pretty much every day. He was obviously very involved in the month leading up to the [2019 NHL Trade Deadline on Feb. 25]. He was involved in all of our midyear meetings. And I know he's been a resource as well for our coaches and our players. I know he's reached out to some of them; some of them have reached out to him. Obviously, he's been a great sounding board for me, but he's been a great sounding board for our entire organization."
Asked if any team had asked permission to speak to Yzerman, BriseBois said: "Even if someone had, I probably wouldn't be telling you."
What will be the process of determining his future?
"I think he wanted to take the year before deciding what his next move will be," BriseBois said. "But as long as he wants to work with us in this role, it's his, because I enjoy working with him. For everything he brings to the table professionally, but I've also built a relationship with him over the years where we're really compatible, we complement each other really well and I enjoy his company on a personal level as well."