Pastor Heather Boone is among the Monroe-area ministers who participate in The Monroe News' clergy column series.
After seeing a number of these ads on Facebook regarding a 42-day challenge at CrossFit River Raisin, I decided to give it a try.
I was very skeptical. My husband and a couple of my friends said I couldn't do it so I felt the need to prove them wrong. Plus, I wanted to complete the challenge and reach my weight loss goal.
Day 1 was the worst! Getting out of bed at 5 a.m. to make it to my 6 a.m. workout was my first real challenge. I could not understand how people could be that chipper that early. The early morning work outs were really brutal. Every single day I dragged myself to the gym, only to leave feeling like I was beat up. I have never run, jumped, squatted or lifted that much in my whole life. I had aches and pains in body parts that I didn't know existed.
The challenge also included changing my eating. I struggled with following the meal plan as well. I am a picky eater so having to change my diet felt like torture. There were several times I really wanted to quit but then I reminded myself that Jesus completely fasted for 40 days. He didn't even get the egg whites I complained about eating every morning. He suffered to understand our suffering and to be our example.
That's when I realized this challenge wasn't just about proving something to my husband and friends. This challenge was to teach me and my congregation about willpower, self-control and self-discipline.
I preach to my people all the time about not smoking cigarettes, not using drugs, not over indulging in alcohol and not hooking up with the wrong people. I also tell them that their body is the Lord's temple, yet my own actions were saying something different. I was constantly eating sweets and junk food. Church folks love desserts. Even though my doctor told me how high my glucose level was and put me on medications to lower my blood sugar, I never changed my diet. I felt invincible and I kept thinking surely this doctor is overreacting. She wasn't! Months later she had to up my medication.
During my CrossFit challenge the Lord showed me my own addiction to sugar. He reminded me that I need to lead by example. How can I tell others not to stick poison in their arms when I keep shoving poison down my throat? Unhealthy eating kills more people than drugs. My gluttony makes me just as guilty as anyone else. Too many times it's easy to point fingers and judge the actions of others, but we all need to take a good long look at ourselves in the mirror.
I did just that. Thanks to my CrossFit journey I really like what I see now. The Apostle Paul said he beat his body into submission after 42 days of extreme workouts. I think I know exactly what he meant. I lost 8% body fat. Now I feel stronger, healthier and like an overcomer.
Thank you to the wonderful 6 a.m. class who pushed me and helped me to practice what I preach!
Heather Boone is pastor of Oaks of Righteousness Christian Ministries and Oaks Village in Monroe. Reach her at oaksofrighteousness@aol.com.


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Did Charmed Copy The Craft?
Story from TV Shows
The Craft Star Says That Charmed Copied The Movie
Christopher Luu
Photo: Columbia Pictures/Photofest.
Just in time for Halloween and everyone re-watching The Craft (1996) to get in the mood, Entertainment Weekly sat down with the stars of the movie. In an oral history, the cast and crew talk about how the film has managed to become a cult classic for its depiction of high school life (the witchcraft and magic was a major part, too). Robin Tunney, who played Sarah Bailey, explained that a consequence of the film's popularity was that other productions were taking cues from the movie.
Fans of the film were quick to call out another witch-centric show taking some creative license with iconic Craft moments. Charmed, the WB show starring Alyssa Milano, Holly Marie Combs, Rose McGowan, and Shannen Doherty, actually used music from the movie.
"That cover of the Smiths' song was my idea. I wrote a pilot of The Craft for Fox," co-writer and director Andrew Fleming told EW. "The WB wanted to take it and Fox wouldn't let it go. And then the next year, Charmed came out."
In 1998, when Charmed hit the airwaves, it used Love Spit Love's cover of "How Soon Is Now?" as its theme song. That same cover was used in The Craft, when Nancy, Rochelle, and Bonnie meet up with new girl Sarah.
"Charmed is a rip-off of The Craft," Tunney added. "It was completely obvious to the point that people would think I was on Charmed for years after."
That may seem like a blatant rip-off (or homage), but the team behind The Craft seems to have gotten over it. While Charmed keeps itself in the headlines with a possible reboot, Tunney says that she doesn't get mistaken for a Charmed star anymore. Instead, she and her costars say that fans are always approaching them about The Craft, whether it's October or not.
"I still get tweets about it," Fairuza Balk said. "What an honour to have been part of something that people love so much."
Robin Tunney The Craft Charmed Copy Smiths Cover Song
TV Shows • Entertainment • Movies
written by Christopher Luu
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redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


After the politically stultifying years of Blair/Brown and its aftermath under Miliband, Labour members voted for a left-wing leader in 2015. This was a palace revolution without a changing of the guard. All the old structures and place-holders remain largely unchanged. They were, and are, either incompatible or largely hostile to the new leadership as has been demonstrated publicly on numerous occasions.
The essential point is that the new leadership did not come to power on the basis of winning a series of battles for policies and positions following which the whole thing was consolidated by the election of a new leader. Jeremy Corbyn became leader on the basis of a growing sense of dissatisfaction with the political elite in general and with the leadership of the Labour Party in particular. Miliband claimed to be making a break with Blairism but was unable to do so other than rhetorically. In Corbyn the majority of members saw the chance for a real change of direction. Many saw this as an opportunity to revive the ideals of socialism and democracy.
But Corbyn's election was just a first step. All the work still remained to be done. New policies needed to be put in place and people supporting those policies needed to be elected to ensure that they would be pursued with intelligence and enthusiasm. After two years of the new leadership the struggle for both of these things can only be said to be at an embryonic stage. The situation is weak and precarious and will remain so until the battle for policies and positions is won. It is against this backdrop that we should consider the Annual Report of the National Policy Forum to Annual Conference this year.
It is Annual Conference that sets the seal on Party Policy, in theory at least. It does so on the basis of its approval or otherwise of the NPF's Annual Report. The Labour Party Rulebook makes the position clear.
Those wishing to consolidate the position of the left leadership of the party need to think about this very seriously. In recent years the reception of the Annual Report has been a non-event and has in effect gone through on the nod. It was difficult to raise objections because the report was considered on an all or nothing basis. Rejecting or referring back any part of it meant doing so for the entire report. Clearly few Conference delegates were ever going to feel in a position to do that. This led to a situation in which many (most?) delegates did not actually read the report. Some delegates didn't receive the report in time to discuss it with colleagues and some didn't even receive it at all.
The series of articles on Left Futures reviewing six of the eight Policy Commission sections of the Annual Report have pointed to a uniformly lack-lustre and lethargic approach to the development of policy.
Review of the housing part of the Housing, Local Government & Transport report.
Unfortunately we were not able to get a review of the report from the Justice & Home Affairs Commission but we have covered seven out of eight of the reports and the message from those seven reviews is loud and clear. All seven reviews have been consolidated into a single document which you can download here.
In my view the leaders of Momentum and the CLPD, and everyone keen to consolidate Labour's left turn, should seize the opportunity provided by voting on the separate parts of the NPF Annual Report and should encourage delegates to read the reports thoroughly and to read the reviews that have been published (on Left Futures and anywhere elsewhere this has, unknown to me, been attempted). A reference back of one or two of the very worst of this extremely poor collection of reports would send a much needed signal that the present approach is not delivering the policy-making process that the Party needs and deserves.
A glimmer of reason in Labour's policy on Trident?
After Blair/Brown, and in contrast to David Miliband, many allowed themselves to believe that Ed was on the left and even that Ed Balls would be a great shadow chancellor. The illusion gradually evaporated.
Thanks for all the work you put into this David. I think it was a worthwhile effort.
The document seems a considerable start and reads so much more than its separate parts. I think I can make good use of it in my CLP which is what I shall do. It will also stimulate others to identify areas in which they can add or elaborate for future development.
However it doesn't half look embarrassing to members of the Policy Forums. Surely this will challenge them to make a start on the job some thought they were supposed to do. The only problem for them as I see it is that presumably they did not intend to be as non committal as they were (it can b no fun trying to say nothing); they were responding to the circumstances in which deep division and conflict was the norm within the groups and no one knew how to get out without just continuing with the divisions they they were seeking to side step.
Fine piece of work , David.
It would be wonderful (for a radical renewal of Labour's currently laughably poor "policy development process" ) if Conference is alerted by this collection of critical reviews to "Refer Back" at least one of the NPF Policy Reports this year. I volunteer as candidates at least the particularly dire International (including Defence) Report , or the Education one – which , as you say, doesn't even mention Academisation !
But basically they should ALL be referred back, if Conference was as up to speed with the games the Right are still playing to run policy rings round the Left as it should be.
I think the apparent strategy of the Corbyn circle in just letting the farce of the current barren NPF process continue as is , must be the experience with the 2017 Manifesto, constructed in Jeremy's Office with no real reference to the tortuous NPF process at all ! This "top down" approach from the Left seems superficially OK in terms of the recent result , ie, a well-received Left Keynsian Manifesto; but this strategy leaves the mass membership as politically uninvolved in real policy formation as under Blair et al, and dangerously politically uneducated.
Come a Labour government (even possibly next year as the Tories implode ?) and the Money Markets and speculators generally will soon have a Corbyn Government on the ropes economically – under pressure to "do a Syriza" and become tame stooges of the capitalist markets , as Harold Wilson had to do eventually to get an IMF loan. In this situation a politically educated Membership utterly committed to pursuing a Left Keynsian policy programme through hard times , providing mass support in workplaces and the streets, will be vital. A "top down" policy development process by the Corbyn circle just won't deliver this.
Agreed, ideally we would see them all referred back. If that is not possible, I think you make a strong case for International and Education to be the focus of attention. Personally I was particularly irritated that the Environment/Energy report only referenced submissions which went along with what they wanted to say while completely ignoring any of those arguing otherwise. However, I'm objective enough to know that the degree of my irritation is just because it was my submissions which were ignored. I know for a fact that the Education Commission behaved in a similar way, plus produced even worse policy than Environment/Energy. No doubt the same goes for International.
I think the way we organise Party meetings is part of the problem and yet we treat them as if they were the basis of a solution. You obviously have a substantial CLP if you need a mic. but at mine I could whisper and everyone is still capable of treating the contribution as a political intervention (and therefore ultra vires) imposed in a self – congratulatory get – together.
One root of the problem for me is that the once a month meeting with one hour 'political/policy discussion split into single 3 mins (max) contributions on a once a year revolving topic basis with little follow through. For the typical CLPs, in my view, we need to encourage a culture of multiple depth discussions to engage a wider range of interests and expectation. Of course we need to overcome the distrust inherent in such a sincere intent.
I do realise that one general meeting once a month on whatever comes up, has the potential to serve an important function of equally engaging 'all – comers', but I do not see how the discussion I experience can ever bring about radical change without finding a formula for multi-level discussion (and activity).
Do CLPs even relate much to that which arises in the Party conferences? Is it not in other fora that such links are created? And we then pretend that the CLPs are the engines.
Yes, the organisation of branch meetings really is a problem. Mine must be intermediate between yours and those of Chris. We have about 40-50 people their (from four branches) so we don't need a mic but they are shambling and generally rather aimless. Some of us try to inject some politics with papers and proposals but that has not changed the character. We have tried to make councillors give written reports instead of long verbal ones about their wards. That has been a partial success, mercifully, but overall there is no sense of achieving anything, of resolving issues of difference or developing new ideas. I gather that other branches in my CLP are much worse.
Many branch officers are also councillors and in some cases lead members (the council has a cabinet system). There is a virtual complete disconnect between the Labour council and the CLP. We have consultations over the budget but they are completely phoney.
My meetings do virtually nothing to help members understand and participate in what is going on in the Party. The level of information is near zero.
I think the organisation of branch meetings and how to raise their political level while still being inviting to all strands of opinion is a major issue. How about starting a discussion with an article on that?
Good piece David and good points John – the top down manifesto was great but it would help if we all felt we owned it and had helped to construct it!
We on the Left know the NPF was set up as a fig leaf for internal democracy by the Blairite Neo-Liberals to be subsequently IGNORED.
In my city in the 1970's we used to have a well attended District Labour Party which was attended by branch delegates and trade union delegates (before the top down Executive Boards and the weak Labour Campaign Forums were introduced) and we used to elect working parties.
I was on housing and we had a brilliant Chair who took us on site visits to estates and homeless projects and we would regularly report to the District Labour Party and they would then draw from our work for Labour's Local Council Election manifesto at the special District Labour Party manifesto meeting.
So perhaps this is what we need, scrap the NPF but replace it with working parties by topic and we all elect (hopefully passionate people) and a Chair but charge them with a strict deadline.
But I would argue by topic we need a balance of experts such as for housing – academics, housing workers, activists and experts by experience – social housing tenants, owner occupiers, private rented tenants.
These should be elected by members in say June (and each candidate has to submit a statement why they want to be on this group and on some of their ideas) then the working parties must meet monthly or bi-monthly but engage in discussions in between meetings on-line to produce a report by March the following year to be sent the NEC and CLPs.
Someone, some group of members needs to come up with stimulus-response documents and as we have shown on here there are plenty of socialists out there with ideas and this is the crux of the matter, we need to draw from the vast life experiences of our grassroots Labour members and grassroots trade unionists.
CLPs could then arrange their business to discuss the drafts and send amendments to the NEC for Conference (they have 6 months to discuss the reports) and why they could even have some local community conferences by topic i.e. on housing where draft ideas are shared with Labour members and voters plus those interested in the topic.
We then take each report and amendments at Conference in September say numbered in key points 1-10 or so and vote on each point and amendments.
Each points or the whole documents could be referred back if the majority at Conference are not satisfied.
Just some food for thought and perhaps CLPD could come up with a resolution that covers the organisation of policy development and some of us are bursting with ideas.
But perhaps this is what grassroots members (and local Momentum Groups) should also be exploring.
Neo-Liberalism's greatest victory I would argue was to stop the Left from dreaming, time to start dreaming again!
Back in the 1980s CLPs and affiliated organisations had the right to submit resolutions of decent length on policy. I suspect that this led to policy of far greater substance, quality and attractiveness than is the case with the NPF. In the final analysis it's an empirical question, and one could go back to the official reports of Annual Conference of the 1980s in order to verify that this was the case.
The Labour Party should abolish the NPF whilst retaining a Rolling Programme to which CLPs and affiliated organisations could propose amendments at Conference each year. The RP would serve as the definitive statement of Party policy.
The NPF by contrast is one big exercise in "going through the motions". It has long served as a cover for leadership dictat on policy, an arrangement which does not suit the Left in the long term and is the polar opposite of party democracy.


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Home » Hong Kong Tourism Board plans to boost post COVID-19 recovery
Hong Kong Tourism Board plans to boost post COVID-19 recovery
Published on : Wednesday, February 10, 2021
The Hong Kong Tourism Board (HKTB) announced today its first global fan-engagement programme, "Hong Kong Super Fans", to accelerate its promotional efforts as part of the post-Covid-19 tourism-recovery plan it has been developing over the past year.
At a time of unprecedented restrictions on international travel, and as the world races to roll out vaccines in the hope of resuming normality, the HKTB is harnessing the power of community to remind people why they love Hong Kong and to drum up excitement about visiting the city once borders reopen.
"The HKTB has been planning ahead to prepare for the much-anticipated grand invitation to welcome visitors back to Hong Kong," said Dr YK Pang, Chairman of the HKTB. "The 'Hong Kong Super Fans' programme is both an important, integral element of the HKTB's recovery plan, and a way for us to show our appreciation to the people whose continued passion for Hong Kong has maintained top-of-mind awareness of the city as a world-class travel destination."
In its latest programme, the HKTB has invited Super Fans – people with social influence and a heartfelt connection to Hong Kong – to take part in exclusive online and offline activities that have been designed to showcase the best the city has to offer. Once international travel is allowed again, these Super Fans will be invited to explore Hong Kong in all its glory, from heritage attractions to hidden local gems and exciting new happenings, and share their experiences with their audience (Fans & Friends). To show its appreciation, the HKTB has also organised a series of attractive offers and incentives that can be enjoyed by all Fans & Friends of Hong Kong.
The HKTB has been recruiting Super Fans by invitation in Hong Kong and 20 key markets through the HKTB's worldwide offices in Asia, Australasia, Europe, Africa, the Middle East, and the Americas. This week saw the launch of the programme's debut activity – a virtual tour celebrating everything unique about ringing in Chinese New Year in Hong Kong – organised especially for the very first Super Fans. The "online + offline" journey takes the Super Fans through the charismatic neighbourhood of Old Town Central to experience cherished traditions and shop for auspicious essentials, while enjoying a pre-delivered "Good Fortune Bag", filled with lucky ornaments, festive snacks and more, from the comfort of their own homes.
"As the HKTB continues to leverage the 'Holiday at Home' campaign to encourage the people of Hong Kong to rediscover our hometown, the 'Hong Kong Super Fans' programme is the first major step to re-engage with passionate travellers across the globe," adds Dr Pang. "As borders begin to reopen, we will roll out our 'Open House Hong Kong' campaign to tell the world that Hong Kong is ready to embrace visitors again with a collection of competitive travel offers and exciting in-town experiences."
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Home Hotel, Casino & Club News Billy Joel in Concert at T-Mobile Arena Saturday, April 30 for his...
Hotel, Casino & Club News
Billy Joel in Concert at T-Mobile Arena Saturday, April 30 for his Only Show in Nevada in 2016
VegasNews
Billy Joel will make his triumphant return to Las Vegas at the new T-Mobile Arena on Saturday, April 30. This will be the only time Joel performs in Nevada in 2016 and this concert marks the Artist's first time in his extraordinary career to perform at T-Mobile Arena.
Having sold 150 million records over the past quarter century, Joel ranks as one of most popular recording artists and respected entertainers in history. The singer/songwriter/composer is the sixth best-selling recording artist of all-time, the third best-selling solo artist and is one of the highest grossing touring artists in the world.
American Express Card Members will have exclusive access to presale tickets beginning Monday, March 7 at 10 a.m. PT. Tickets are $99.99, $149.99 and $225 (not including applicable service fees) and go on sale to the general public Friday, March 11 at 10 a.m. PT and can be purchased at axs.com. To charge by phone with a major credit card, call AXS at (888) 929-7849.
For fans anxious to purchase seats to highly-anticipated concerts and events, M life  MGM Resorts International's loyalty program  provides members exclusive access to pre-sales for sporting events and concerts. The program also features rewards, benefits and once-in-a-lifetime experiences at the incomparable collection of MGM Resorts' world-renowned destinations. To join the loyalty program or for more information, visit mlife.com.
Joel is also one of the biggest live performing artists in the world and his concerts continue to break records in both arenas and baseball stadiums. In November 2014, Billy Joel received both The Library of Congress Gershwin Prize for Popular Song which honors living musical artists' lifetime achievement in promoting the genre of song as a vehicle of cultural understanding; entertaining and informing audiences; and inspiring new generations, and the once-in-a-century ASCAP Centennial Award, which is presented to American music icons in recognition of their incomparable accomplishments in their respective music genres and beyond. In December 2013, Joel received The Kennedy Center Honors, one of the United States' top cultural awards. He is also the recipient of six GRAMMY Awards, including the prestigious Grammy Legend Award. Joel has been inducted into the Songwriter's Hall of Fame and the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame and has received numerous industry awards including a TONY AWARD for "Movin' Out," a Broadway musical based on Joel's music. For his accomplishments as a musician and as a humanitarian, Joel was honored as the 2002 MusiCares Person Of The Year by the MusiCares Foundation and the National Academy of Recording Arts & Sciences.
Joel has also performed alongside other music greats at two the country's most extraordinary benefit concerts  "12-12-12, The Concert For Sandy Relief," which raised awareness and money for those affected by Hurricane Sandy and "The Concert for New York City," which was held to help aid 9/11 victims and heroes. Billy Joel received a star on the Hollywood Walk of Fame in Los Angeles, adding another milestone to his brilliant career.
For more information visit the T-Mobile Arena website at www.t-mobilearena.com.
Grammy Legend Award
The Rock and Roll Hall of Fame
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WEBINAR RECAP: Forced Labor and Human Trafficking in the Supply Chain
T. Markus Funk, Ph.D, the firm-wide chair of Perkins Coie LLP's White Collar and Investigations practice, Markus was a decorated federal prosecutor in Chicago and served as a section chief with the US State Department-Balkans. He co-authored the groundbreaking book, Child Exploitation and Trafficking: Examining Global Enforcement and Supply Chain – Challenges and US Responses (second edition).
Robert Mensiger, Senior Counsel at KBR Inc. Robert has extensive experience directing compliance, regulatory enforcement, and investigative programs in the public and private sectors. He spent 26 years as a special agent and manager with the US Departments of Treasury, Homeland Security, Defense, and the Small Business Administration's Office of Inspector General.
Kevin B. Metcalf, who has more than 30 years of experience as an investigator and prosecutor. He is founder of the National Child Protection Task Force (NCPTF) which brings together experts in legal strategy, open source intelligence investigations, cellular mapping and analysis, dark web, cryptocurrency, and more to aid law enforcement agencies around the world on cases involving missing, exploited, and trafficked children.
John Fanning, Vice President Business Development, Integrity Risk International.
According to the International Labor Organization, nearly 21 million people across the globe are victims of forced labor, a form of enslavement that encompasses labor and sexual exploitation. As one of the fastest growing criminal enterprises in the world, human trafficking can pose serious ESG risks in the supply chains of global companies.
Three leading experts recently took part in an IntegrityRisk-hosted webinar to discuss today's global human trafficking and forced labor scene. They reviewed the legal, regulatory, moral dimensions of these global problems in an effort to raise awareness and educate viewers about strategies to combat them.
Highlights from the discussion are below.
What informed your interest and work in these issues?
"There are between 20 to 40 million people in modern slavery today," said John Fanning, who noted that a precise statistic is elusive because so many cases go undetected. Organized crime profits tremendously from human trafficking, he added. Fanning also noted that IntegrityRisk's attention to and interest in human trafficking and forced labor in the supply chain has been magnified by its work in the ESG (environmental, social, governance) diligence space. Those efforts have spotlighted the growing demand for human rights due diligence, broadly, and the need for specialized intelligence gathering tradecraft for detecting human slavery in supply chains, more specifically.
T. Markus Funk said he traces his interest in the subject of child trafficking to his days as a federal prosecutor in Chicago, where a number of cases included touch points in the area of child exploitation. In particular, while serving at the UN Mission in Kosovo as the USDoJ Section Chief, Funk had a front row seat to witness the global dimensions of human trafficking. Once back in the US, he and then-prosecutor (now federal Judge) Virginia M. Kendall felt what was needed was a practitioner's guide to prosecuting, adjudicating, and defending these complex cases, and to also address the related company supply chain compliance issues, the two published their book in 2012. It examined the issues from all sides, including recidivism rates, prosecution approaches, and forensic issues. That book's updated second edition, which has become the leading treatise on the subject, was published in 2017 (with a particular focus on supply chain-related issues).
Robert Mensinger arrived in the private sector with experience in federal law enforcement that included work on cases involving child exploitation, human trafficking, and money laundering tied to debt servitude after 9/11. Working for defense contractors, compliance programs involving combatting trafficking in persons and forced labor are required. But every company should be a good corporate citizen and develop programs that address human trafficking and forced labor. Every organization will have unique risks inherent to their own supply chains and should mitigate those risks.. Mensinger noted that, for example, for any company operating globally, it's essential to be in full compliance with international laws such as, for example, the UK's Modern Slavery Act.
Kevin Metcalf noted that since 1988 he's held positions in the military as well as state, local, and federal law enforcement. After law school, he was struck by differences in approaches and perceptions between investigators and prosecutors. "There are different ways of looking at things, even though you're working on the same problem," he said. "As a prosecutor, I've got to tell the jury a story. I've got to make it understandable. I've got to connect the dots," he said. He came to see the value of connecting those dots early on — at the front end in the investigative process. Metcalf saw that by making use of the full range of investigative tools and techniques, more cases of child exploitation and trafficking could be solved. His answer was to found the nonprofit National Child Protection Task Force (NCPTF), which operates today as a "fully volunteer-run team of seasoned professionals, parents, and advocates" donating their time and skills to help law enforcement find missing people faster.
How is the legal and regulatory ecosystem changing and what are key challenges your experience has surfaced?
On the legislative side, there are a multitude of laws and regulations across countries and in US states that are "all about disclosure," noted Funk. What's shifted some, he says, are that some things that used to be merely 'red flags' are now codified in some law as standalone violations. "The big problem," observes Funk, "is not a lack of laws or business initiatives." He expressed his personal view that, "we don't need new laws, but the real thing we need is enforcement." He compared the lag between legislation and enforcement on this front to what's unfolded in slow motion with the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA), which was enacted in 1977 but only began to be seriously enforced decades later. Funk said that there is often little awareness or appreciation of the extent to which the laws and regulations on the book remain unenforced.
Mensinger noted that there are few companies that are not understaffed on the compliance front. In many cases it takes litigation or bad publicity threatening a company's reputation to drive meaningful action when it comes to uncovering and mitigating the infection of human trafficking in private sector supply chains.
Metcalf says the legal challenges he faces now in the US revolve around how much predators are "networked, something law enforcement fails to do very much. He added that predators are telling children, "when you leave, make it look like you are running away," because it changes the law enforcement response. He said that his strong preference would be to simplify the designation to reflect simply whether someone is missing or not — as opposed to designating whether a missing child is a runaway. Metcalf also bemoaned the fact that the urgency of a response to a missing child diminishes once 48 hours have passed.
What are strategies companies can take to safeguard their supply chain?
Funk noted that, for companies with the requisite leverage, unannounced visits to manufacturing facilities (whether owned or vendor-run) during which interviews can be conducted can be very helpful. He also emphasized the importance of reviewing, verifying, and following up on documentation and certifications such as local language contracts. As he put it, a "paper-only" compliance program that is not meaningfully enforced can be very dangerous from a compliance perspective. In response to a webinar viewer question about whether there were any US or international instruments that mandate companies to develop compliance programs, he replied, "In the US, certainly, there is nothing out there. In other words, you can comply fully with the California Transparency in Supply Chains act by simply saying, 'we do nothing to monitor our supply chains.'" In other words, that particular law is descriptive, rather than proscriptive. In the absence of substantive enforcement, he added, the primary concern for many companies is reputational; put another way, today the concern tends to be with brand damage, not government action. But that could change if and when the state and federal enforcers and regulators begin to more actively pursue the laws in their respective tool belts.
Funk also recommended viewers listen to a September 2020 Perkins Coie LLP podcast with Jeremy Gottschalk, the general counsel for Sittercity.com, an online marketplace for childcare providers. The podcast also features Virginia M. Kendall of the U.S. District Court for the District of Northern Illinois, one of the nation's leading experts in the area of child exploitation. In their discussion, they discuss potential threats companies may face when operating in the childcare space, concrete steps companies can take to identify and root out potential abusers from their online platforms, and cooperation with law enforcement agencies.
Mensinger emphasized the importance of due diligence with subcontractors. He noted that much of the risk companies face is detected with their lower tier subcontractors. He noted that a best practices approach would be to conduct unannounced audits, interview subcontract employees away from the employers, inspect housing conditions, and make sure that employment agreements are understandable and in the language of the employees.
Where does awareness need to be raised, and about what?
Metcalf noted that his organization is being contacted continuously by media in reaction to a plethora of misinformation and "crazy theories" that circulate today. "We need to focus on the reality," said Metcalf. One of his advisors at NCPTF, for example, was trafficked by her own mother, here, in the United States from age eight to 13. "We live in this bubble here in the US, especially people that have a good life," he said. "We need to educate people that these kids are out there not because they want to be out there. They're out there because they've been groomed by a parent, or a brother or sister, or a close family friend. This stuff is happening right under our nose."
Funk said that Hollywood actors opining on the ills of human trafficking is one thing, but deeper awareness-raising has to happen on the consumer level. He says that he doubts that consumers are likely to probe the companies they buy goods from for details about their supply chain, and as a result awareness tends to be raised when big cases capture headlines. This is a dynamic observed in the context of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, which from the late 1970s until the early 2000s was generally unknown in US boardroom. "It has to be more than billboards," said Funk. He said that until he visited some factories himself, it was hard for him to grasp the full dimension of the problem. "The value of a human life" when it comes to human trafficking in the supply chain needs to matter at least as much as the other sustainability issues that consumers today tend to care about.
What is the mission of the National Child Protection Task Force?
Metcalf closed the webinar with a summary presentation of the work of the NCPTF which exists because, "We imagine a world where children wake up and experience childhood, feel safe wherever they are, and end each day looking forward to tomorrow." He noted that the organization's case tools span a broad spectrum and include: location and image tracking; cryptocurrency, social engineering, legal proceedings and prosecutions, dark web, and open source intelligence.
Fanning noted that IntegrityRisk made a financial donation to support the important work of NCPTF and that the company was committed to assisting the organization's work. Through the end of 2020, IntegrityRisk pledges to donate five percent of the revenue from any ESG report ordered by webinar participants to the NCPTF.
SELECTED RESOURCES AND BACKGROUND
National Child Protection Task Force (donations can be made here)
Trafficking Victims Protection Act (22 US Code Chapter 78)
UK Modern Slavery Act 2015
US Federal Acquisition Regulation (FAR) (48 CFR 52.222-50)
Supply Chain & Trafficking Chat With a Federal Judge, June 2020 'White Collar Briefly' Perkins Coie LLP podcast
Policing Online Child Care Platforms: A Conversation with Sittercity's General Counsel Jeremy Gottschalk and the Hon. Virginia M.Kendall, September 2020, 'White Collar Briefly' Perkins Coie LLP podcast
by IntegrityRisk Team | Sep 22, 2020 | Impact Investing | ImpactCheck, Thought Leadership, Webinar


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Slow Q1 GDP Growth Means What?
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 0.7 percent in the first quarter of 2017, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2016, real GDP increased 2.1 percent.
Graph: BEA
The first estimate of first quarter economic growth usually means little. Consumer weren't spending, and they never seem to spend much in Q1, as in past years, as the BEA graph show. But with consumer confidence still sky high because of optimism that President Trump and Congress might still agree on some stimulus, spending may pick up.
There were signs of higher growth in Q1 outside of the consumers, particularly in real estate. "The deceleration in real GDP in the first quarter reflected a deceleration in PCE and downturns in private inventory investment and in state and local government spending that were partly offset by an upturn in exports and accelerations in both nonresidential and residential fixed investment," said the BEA.
So consumer sentiments can be deceptive, even misleading, given the lack of higher consumer spending in Q1. The Conference Board reported the consumer confidence index eased back to 120.3 in April vs a revised 124.9 in March with these two months the best of the 8-year expansion. "Readings remain strongly favorable including jobs-hard-to-get which is steady at a very low 19.1 percent and points to strength for the April employment report," said Econoday.
Weak vehicle sales are a major negative in the quarter's consumer breakdown, pulling durable sales down at a 2.5 percent rate and offsetting a 1.5 percent rise in non-durables and a slow 0.4 percent showing for services. Weakness in consumer spending is worrisome but not other data in the GDP report. Residential investment posted a second straight very strong quarter, up 13.7 percent. And in a rare show of strength, nonresidential investment, which has been subdued, jumped at a 9.4 percent rate with both structures and equipment showing unusual strength. A surge in mining investment is a standout of the report, said the BEA.
There are more signs that growth could pick up in coming quarters. The Institute for Supply Management's Chicago Business Barometer, a proxy for Midwest growth, ticked up 0.6 Points in April to 58.3 in April from 57.7 in March, the highest level since January 2015. New orders are the highest since May 2014, and in a sign of ongoing strength deliveries continue to slow.
Optimism among firms about business conditions rose for the third month in a row. Three of the five Barometer components led April's increase, with Production and Order Backlogs receding, said the report. Third Consecutive Rise in Business Confidence, New Orders Highest Since May 2014, Inflationary Pressures Ease Slightly, Prices Paid fall, as the MNI Chicago Business Barometer increased to 58.3 in April from 57.7 in March, the highest level since January 2015.
"The April Chicago report showcased another impressive month, with firms reporting solid growth. Rising demand and firm production led to a pick-up in hiring by firms. Although the employment indicator has been bumpy, in and out of contraction, if the current month's rise is sustained, it could provide a boost to the labor market," said Shaily Mittal, senior economist at MNI Indicators, compiler of the report.
But optimism doesn't always translate to spending, as we know from past reports. Consumers' incomes keep rising and were very solid in the fourth quarter at a 3.5 percent pace, but rose at only 0.3 percent in first-quarter 2017 on weak vehicle sales and lower heating bills. This is by far the worst showing since no change in fourth-quarter 2009, and would be the lowest showing for consumer spending in 5 years. What will it take for consumers to spend again?
Posted by Popular Economics Weekly at 1:51 PM 1 comment:
Labels: consumer confidence, consumer spending, motor vehicle sales, real GDP growth
Pending Home Sales Decline, Because No Inventory!
The Pending Home Sales Index, www.nar.realtor/topics/pending-home-sales, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, declined 0.8 percent to 111.4 in March from 112.3 in February. Despite last month's decrease, the index is 0.8 percent above a year ago.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says sparse inventory levels caused a pullback in pending sales in March, with existing-home inventories in the 5 month range, but activity was still strong enough to be the third best in the past year. "Home shoppers are coming out in droves this spring and competing with each other for the meager amount of listings in the affordable price range," he said. "In most areas, the lower the price of a home for sale, the more competition there is for it. That's the reason why first-time buyers have yet to make up a larger share of the market this year, despite there being more sales overall."
That's why the Case-Shiller Home Price index has increased 5.8 percent YoY. Housing prices are entering bubble territory, as the accompanying Calculated Risk Price-to-Rent comparison shows. It measures the ratio between housing prices and rents, and reached its highest level in 2006—meaning the housing price ratio had soared far above the historical 1-to-1 ratio of price-to-rents that prevailed in the 1980s and 90s, when housing prices rose more in line with rents. So, home buyers were paying prices they couldn't really afford during the housing bubble, since rental rates are a better measure of incomes.
On a price-to-rent basis, the Case-Shiller National index is back to November 2003 levels, the Composite 20 index is back to August 2003 levels, and the CoreLogic index is back to July 2003, says Econoday, so we are not yet back to pre-recession price levels.
Pointing to revealing data from the March Realtors® Confidence Index, Yun worries that the painfully low supply levels this spring could heighten price growth — at 6.8 percent last month — even more in the months ahead. Homes in March came off the market at a near-record pace, and indicating an increase in the likelihood of listings receiving multiple offers, 42 percent of homes sold at or above list price (the second highest amount since NAR began tracking in December 2012).
The main reason for such "painfully lw supply" is soaring existing-home sales. "Existing sales rose a very sharp 4.4 percent to a higher-than-expected annualized rate of 5.710 million," said Econoday. "This is the best rate since February 2007. Both components show strength with single-family sales up 4.3 percent to a 5.080 million rate and condo sales up 5.0 percent to a 630,000 rate. And year-on-year sales are moving higher, up 5.9 percent divided between 6.1 percent for single-family homes and 5.0 percent for condos."
And housing construction is not yet catching up to demand. The first quarter ended with a thud for housing starts which fell a very steep 6.8 percent to a 1.215 million annualized rate which is the weakest since November, said the NAHB. Posting similar declines were both single-family homes, at an 821,000 pace, and multi-family, at 394,000. But housing construction does show nearly double-digit year-on-year growth, though quarter-to-quarter movement is barely perceptible.
The hope is housing construction will continue to pick up, as we expect housing demand to remain strong, and interest rates to remain low for the foreseeable future.
Labels: case-shiller home price index, existing-home sales, housing affordability, housing construction, housing inventories, NAR Economist Lawrence Yun
No "Art of the Deal" in 100 Days
It's 100 days into the Trump Presidency and looking more and more like President Trump is no more effective at running the country than his business interests. His book, The Art of the Deal was meant to tout his negotiating skills, but the results were never very successful.
And neither are his legislative efforts; with no repeal of Obamacare, tax reform, an immigration ban, new trade policy, and sanctuary city victories in the offing anytime soon because of poorly thought out strategies. Instead, he threatens judges, sanctuary cities, Congress, and even other countries when they don't support his various executive orders.
His multiple bankruptcies of the Trump Casinos when other Atlantic City Casinos were successful, Trump University charged as a criminal enterprise (under RICO), and the fact that he had to rely on Russian Oligarchs to finance his real estate empire when U.S. banks would no longer lend to him, are just the tip of the iceberg of business incompetence.
These are the acts of a bully, rather than leader, which is why he seems to have so much in common with V Putin, Marine Le Pen, and other demagogues. Acting tough can be a plus when dealing with North Korea, or even Russia, but not when dealing with Americans who don't like him or his very anti-American policies.
It's sad, really, that he doesn't have the skills to really shake up the Washington establishment, which needs it badly, as the election showed. But being a successful negotiator requires more than bully tactics, even in business. He so badly stiffed his own employees, as well as states such as New York (back taxes), charities, and well as U.S. banks that they want nothing more to do with him, except in court.
This is why he is involved in more than 4,000 lawsuits at last count, according to USA Today, and more are yet to come with mounting Federal court rulings against his executive orders.
Fortune Magazine reported last June on candidate Trump's negotiating tactics: "The legal actions provide clues to the leadership style the billionaire businessman would bring to bear as commander in chief. He sometimes responds to even small disputes with overwhelming legal force. He doesn't hesitate to deploy his wealth and legal firepower against adversaries with limited resources, such as homeowners. He sometimes refuses to pay real estate brokers, lawyers and other vendors."
And, "As he campaigns, Trump often touts his skills as a negotiator," says Fortune. "The analysis shows that lawsuits are one of his primary negotiating tools. He turns to litigation to distance himself from failing projects that relied on the Trump brand to secure investments. As USA TODAY previously reported, he also uses the legal system to haggle over his property tax bills. His companies have been involved in more than 100 tax disputes, and the New York State Department of Finance has obtained liens on Trump properties for unpaid tax bills at least three dozen times."
There may be even be more troubles ahead for President Trump, now that he is also stiffing a Republican-run House Oversight Committee investigation into General Flynn's activities as an unreported lobbyist, which wasn't apparently disclosed in his application for renewal of his Top Secret security clearance.
So, could this lead to his impeachment?
Labels: Donald Trump, foreign trade, Obamacare, Republican Party
Why Is Mortgage Lending Still Restricted?
We can thank the Great Recession for most of it. Banks have become much more conservative, and builders are building approximately 50 percent fewer residences vs. the 2 million housing units at the height of the housing bubble.
And the very Great Recession was in some ways worse than the Great Depression, when FDR's New Deal created jobs for those that couldn't find work. Whereas conservative economic ideologies have triumphed since President Reagan under austerity policies (such as the 2011 government shutdown over raising the budget cap), which have restricted government spending at a time when the private sector has refused to reinvest in productive growth, even though corporate profits have soared to record levels as a percentage of GDP.
The Urban Institute has dug even deeper into the causes of tight credit. Since private sector lending dried up after the Great Recession, government GSEs, such as Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, FHA and VA; all with some form of government guarantee, have had to step in to revive the housing market. So they account for more than 80 percent of all residential lending.
And because the US Treasury completely appropriated all the assets and profits of Fannie and Freddie in 2012, which account for 60 percent of all residential loans, they have imposed additional fees on any but the best credit risks to protect taxpayers. This in effect raised the cost of qualifying, which in turn reduces the pool of eligible home buyers and borrowers.
How much, asks the Urban Institute? "According to our estimates, an additional 1.25 million loans would have been made in 2013 if the cautious standards of 2001, rather than the severe standards of 2013, had been in place. Between 2009 and 2013, the number of "missing" loans grew from 0.50 million to 1.25 million annually, for a total of more than 4 million missing loans over the five years."
Behind all this data lies another, more sobering fact—the record income inequality that occurred since the 1970s and was the major cause of the Great Recession. Incomes have flowed so fast to the upper income tiers since its end in 2009 that 96 percent of all income gained since then has gone to the top 1 percent.
This is in part because of the stock market rebound and loss of all those homes from the housing bust. It resulted in some $4 trillion in lost housing assets for middle-class homeowners in the main, the main source of their wealth.
It's a phenomenon named Monopsony by economists, or the increasing monopoly power of Big Business in particular to control labor costs due to marked lack of competition. This is explained in lucid detail by Kate Bahn, an economist at the Center For American Progress, a progressive think tank.
"While overall the labor market looks fairly solid, it's still lacking on measures of competitiveness that are giving employers outsized ability to set low wages," says Prof Hahn. "They can reap higher profits by exploiting their workers who don't feel confident enough to leave their current job in search of a better one. (It's evidenced) by the historically low rates of people moving across geographies."
Graph: BLS/Econoday
The Labor Department measures it as the quits rate in their JOLTS report (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) that tabulates the number of Hires and Separations each month. There was a 1 tenth downtick in the quits rate to 2.1 percent, "a subdued reading that points to lack of movement between jobs and lack of wage pull for employees," said Econoday. The separations rate also fell, down 1 tenth to 3.5 percent.
The gap between openings and hiring first opened up about 2 years ago signaling that employers are having a hard time finding people with the right skills, said Econoday. The current spread between openings and hirings is 429,000, the widest since September. But remember, the US economy is so large that more than 5 million jobs are created and lost per month.
One would think the high number of available jobs means higher wages for all, as employers bid up salaries to attract them, but not so; just for the highly skilled. Those blue collar and service jobs that require less skill don't have the competitive advantage of higher education and training that would boost their salaries.
And that is why the credit and housing markets have skewed towards the highest income earners, and will remain so, unless more New Deal-type programs (such as promised infrastructure spending, universal health care, stronger labor laws) help to bring back the middle class.
Labels: austerity policies, GDP, Great Depression, Great Recession, interest rates, JOLTS survey, mortgages, President Reagan
Low Inflation Boosts Housing Sales
Existing-home sales are now accelerating to new expansion highs, says the NAR. Sales rose a very sharp 4.4 percent to a higher-than-expected annualized rate of 5.710 million. This is the best rate since February 2007. Both components show strength with single-family sales up 4.3 percent to a 5.080 million rate and condo sales up 5.0 percent to a 630,000 rate. And year-on-year sales are moving higher, up 5.9 percent divided between 6.1 percent for single-family homes and 5.0 percent for condos.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says existing sales roared back in March and were led by hefty gains in the Northeast and Midwest. "The early returns so far this spring buying season look very promising as a rising number of households dipped their toes into the market and were successfully able to close on a home last month," he said.
"Although finding available properties to buy continues to be a strenuous task for many buyers, there was enough of a monthly increase in listings in March for sales to muster a strong gain. Sales will go up as long as inventory does."
Why the great interest rates? It's mainly because there is still very little inflation, and the bond market that determines mortgage rates likes low inflation. A March contraction of the CPI led to sizable slowing in year-on-year rates. The total rate is 2.4 percent, down 3 tenths from February and sliding back to the Fed's 2 percent target. The core rate, which excludes food & energy, is down 2 tenths and is right at the target line. Energy comparisons are very easy right now given low prices this time last year. This makes the decline in the core a special concern.
The median existing-home price for all housing types in March was $236,400, up 6.8 percent from March 2016 ($221,400). March's price increase marks the 61st consecutive month of year-over-year gains.
And total housing inventory at the end of March increased 5.8 percent to 1.83 million existing homes available for sale, but is still 6.6 percent lower than a year ago (1.96 million) and has fallen year-over-year for 22 straight months. Unsold inventory is at a 3.8-month supply at the current sales pace (unchanged from February), signaling a very high demand that is outstripping new-home construction, stuck at 1.22 million annual units.
The conforming 30-year fixed rate mortgage is now 3.50 percent and the so-called Hi-Balance conforming 30-year fixed rate is 3.75 percent these days for a 1 percent origination fee. This is what has kept the demand for housing on a tear, in spite of low inventories and tepid economic growth, as I said yesterday.
Labels: CPI, existing-home sales, housing construction, housing inventories, NAR Economist Lawrence Yun
Record Low Interest Rates Boost Housing
The conforming 30-year fixed rate mortgage is now 3.50 percent and the so-called Hi-Balance conforming 30-year fixed rate is 3.75 percent for a 1 percent origination fee in California. And this is what has kept the demand for housing on a tear, in spite of tepid economic growth, with GDP growth still stuck at 2 percent per the Philly Fed Index seen below.
Why? It's mainly because there is still very little inflation, and the bond market that determines mortgage rates likes low inflation. The low inflation rate may be because there's still doubt on what growth-inducing legislation may ever get through a weak President and Congress stuck in ideological warfare. So we could see builders' record profits continue for the rest of this year, and maybe more affordable housing.
Both new-home construction and builder optimism are at post-recession highs, but with normal seasonal fluctuations (such as mid-March Northeast blizzard), says the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB).
Following an elevated February reading, nationwide housing starts fell 6.8 percent in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.22 million units, according to the U.S. HUD and the Commerce Department. Still, new housing production in the first quarter of this year is running 8.1 percent above the pace in 2016, reports the NAHB.
This is why builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes remained solid in April, falling three points to a level of 68 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) after an unusually high March reading, said the NAHB.
"The fact that current sales conditions has been over 70 for five consecutive months shows that there is continued demand for new construction," said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. "However, builders are facing several challenges, such as hefty regulatory costs and ongoing increases in building material prices."
The building industry is doing its share to boost growth as it continues to add jobs, with monthly employment data for February showing that home builder and remodeler employment increased by 18,900. Over the last 12 months, home builders and remodelers have added 136,000 jobs on a net basis and residential construction employment now stands at 2.707 million.
And where is US manufacturing activity these days? It's still increasing in most states. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for February 2017. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 47 states (green states), decreased in two, and remained stable in one (Michigan), for a three-month diffusion index of 90. In the past month, the indexes increased in 44 states, decreased in four, and remained stable in two, for a one-month diffusion index of 80.
"Here is a map of the three month change in the Philly Fed state coincident indicators. This map was all red during the worst of the recession, and almost all green now," says Calculated Risk's Bill McBride.
So, economic growth continues into the eighth year of this business cycle. And housing is usually a leading indicator of future growth, but that will depend on what looks like lower interest rates, future (lower) inflation trends, actions of the Federal Reserve, and Congress, of course.
Labels: builder confidence, housing construction, housing starts, National Association of Home Builders, real GDP growth
Should Trump Economics Fail?
It doesn't look good for two Trump and Republican campaign promises currently working their way through Congress: i.e., to repeal and replace Obamacare, and reform the tax code. They should really be working on what is possible; a $1 Trillion infrastructure spending bill. So the euphoria and expectations generated by the Trump victory might dissipate, and that is what's needed to generate future growth at the end of an already long business cycle.
Why? There is massive opposition from both Republicans and Democrats to both an Obamacare replacement vehicle and tax reform proposals to date. Whereas the one campaign promise that could succeed is the upgrade and replacement of our aging public infrastructure. Both Republicans and Democrats want it for their home states and districts.
For instance, out of the 614,387 bridges in the US, more than 200,000 are more than 50 years old. The Associated Society of Civil Engineers 2016 report estimates it would cost some $123 billion just to fix the bridges in the US, and many of the one million drinking water pipes have been in use for almost 100 years. The aging system makes water breaks more prevalent, which means there are about two trillion gallons of treated water lost each year.
In fact, most of our highways and bridges were built more than 70 years ago, which is why the ASCE says public infrastructure is now behind more the $4.5 trillion in maintenance alone, such as highways, harbors, wastewater facilities and bridges.
Graph: CBO
Even more important to our security and economic well-being, is the majority of the transmission and distribution lines were built in the mid-20th century and have a life expectancy of about 50 years, meaning that they are already outdated. So between 2016 to 2025, there's an investment gap of about $177 billion for infrastructure that supports electricity, like power plants and power lines, reports the ASCE.
There is another Republican obsession, however that may block even that possibility. It's Trump's preoccupation with the Wall, or pseudo Wall, and deportation of millions of undocumented workers—the majority of which have lived in the U.S. for more than 10 years. They have raised families, paid taxes, and held jobs that white and other ethnic groups are either incapable of doing (such as farm work), or refuse the low wages and benefits on this bottom rung of the labor ladder.
Graph: Business Insider
Any increase in their deportation could cause severe damage to growth, and maybe even end the 8 years of this growth cycle. The Center for American Progress, a liberal policy institute in Washington, is even more blunt. It estimates that a policy of mass deportation would "immediately reduce the nation's GDP by 1.4% and ultimately by 2.6%." This is when current GDP growth is just 2 percent.
None other than Fed Chairman Janet Yellen also voiced her concern in a recent speech. "Labor-force growth has been slowing in the United States," Yellen said. "It's one of several reasons, along with slow productivity growth, for the fact that our economy has been growing at a slow pace. Immigration has been an important source of labor-force growth. So slowing the pace of immigration probably would slow the growth rate of the economy."
Her comments are striking because Yellen is usually careful not to discuss topics outside her monetary policy and regulation mandate, lest her remarks be construed as political.
And, "Because capital will adjust downward to a reduction in labor — for example, farmers will scrap or sell excess equipment per remaining worker — the long-run effects are larger and amount to two-thirds of the decline experienced during the Great Recession," the CAP report says. "Removing 7 million unauthorized workers would reduce national employment by an amount like that experienced during the Great Recession."
Over 10 years, US output will have fallen $4.7 trillion short of what it might otherwise have been, CAP says. For comparison, US gross domestic product, the nation's total spending on goods and services, stood at $18.6 trillion at the end of 2016.
Those are very large numbers, which means Republicans and Democrats will have to learn to work together on what is practical and attainable to avoid the next recession.
Labels: ASCE, Donald Trump, infrastructure building, Obamacare, Republican Party, unemployment
Is Happiness That Important to Americans?
What a strange question to ask Americans! We are the wealthiest country in the world, right? But a recent survey claims to show that wealth accumulation is not the first priority for most of the world. In fact, the 2017 United Nation's World Happiness Report compiled by Gallup says that Americans' pre-occupation with wealth gets in the way of being happy.
This conclusion results from a survey of 155 countries, and shows USA is now ranked 19th in being happy, due to our national preoccupation with what money buys now, rather than in the future.
Norway is ranked number one; no surprise with its oil wealth. But, "by choosing to produce its oil slowly," says the survey, "and investing the proceeds for the future rather than spending them in the present, Norway has insulated itself from the boom and bust cycle of many other resource-rich economies. To do this successfully requires high levels of mutual trust, shared purpose, generosity and good governance, all factors that help to keep Norway and other top countries where they are in the happiness rankings.
The USA, however, hasn't shielded itself from boom and bust cycles. The Great Recession is just the latest in a string of recessions since 1980—two under R Reagan, one during Bush I, and two under son GW Bush. And that has led to the greatest income equality since 1929 that was the beginning of the Great Depression, and also the cause of just-ended Great Recession.
We have not been good at investing in our future, and that has led to a very low savings rate and very little put aside for retirement. This is in part because our social safety net is profoundly inadequate. We have no universal healthcare, for starters, and Republicans are threatening to repeal Obamacare, and maybe even Medicare.
This is while we have a huge public debt because Congress has refused to raise enough taxes to pay for all the spending that has supported the ongoing wars as well as tax loopholes afforded corporations, and high net-worth individuals.
Why has such record income inequality led to recessions? As Marriner Eccles, FDR's renown Federal Reserve Chairman once said about the Great Depression: "…a giant suction pump had by 1929-30 drawn into a few hands an increasing portion of currently produced wealth. ... The other fellows could stay in the game only by borrowing. When their credit ran out, the game stopped."
Credit had again run out for most Americans in 2007 due to a failed financial system and busted housing bubble. And it is just that uncertainty that is in the way of happiness. For how can anyone be happy, unless they can count on a predictable future?
"The USA is a story of reduced happiness," said the Gallup study. "In 2007 the USA ranked 3rd among the OECD countries; in 2016 it became 19th. The reasons are declining social support and increased corruption and it is these same factors that explain why the Nordic countries do so much better."
And the lack of such social support has resulted in poorer health outcomes for all Americans—such as declining longevities, significantly higher disease rates, and higher infant mortality. The study lists the main factors that support happiness: caring, freedom, generosity, honesty, health, income and good governance."
In sum, the United States offers a vivid portrait of a country that is looking for happiness "in all the wrong places," says the study. "The country is mired in a roiling social crisis that is getting worse. Yet the dominant political discourse is all about raising the rate of economic growth. And the prescriptions for faster growth—mainly deregulation and tax cuts—are likely to exacerbate, not reduce social tensions. Almost surely, further tax cuts will increase inequality, social tensions, and the social and economic divide between those with a college degree and those without."
America has become a less caring and generous country because of its single-minded pursuit of wealth, in other words. How to re-develop those traits that Americans have historically been noted for?
Creating a quality educational system available to all, would be a start. The share of Americans receiving a college Bachelor's Degree or better is stuck at 36 percent when a more technically savvy workforce is needed more than ever. And the educational divide between Haves and Have-nots has been increasing, which increases the political polarization.
"Clinton won 17 of the top 18 states, while Trump won 29 of the bottom 32 states," said Gallup. And, "The deep social and economic divisions according to educational attainment seem to be similar to the dynamics of the Brexit vote and other anti-migrant parties in Europe, which find their base among voters with lower educational attainment."
Why is greater equality, and the concept of a safety net for all Americans taking so long to achieve when it has already been achieved in all other advanced countries and economies?
One hint: Why haven't we elected a female president when every other major western economy has? And women, because they are used to nurturing and caring for children, are much better at planning for the future
Labels: FDR, Great Depression, Great Recession, income inequality, marriner eccles, personal income
Why the Weak March Employment Report?
The good news is that the unemployment rate fell to 4.5 percent, and number of unemployed persons (i.e., available for work) declined by 326,000 to 7.2 million. Both measures were improved number over the year. But just 98,000 payroll jobs were created in March, lower than gains of 219,000 in February and 216,000 in January, reports the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning.
Graph: Marketwatch
The predictions were for much stronger payroll creation in March, as the ADP (a payroll service) private payrolls estimate on Wednesday was 263,000 payroll jobs, and the Labor Department's estimate's usually follow closely. The consensus before ADP's result was calling for a 170,000 rise in March private payrolls which would follow gains of 227,000 and 221,000 in the two prior months. Details in the ADP report include a strong 49,000 gain for construction and a 30,000 increase for manufacturing.
This was predicted by a very strong ISM manufacturing index of manufacturing activity earlier in the week, with its employment index at 58.9—which means 58.9 percent of respondents to the survey increased hiring for a 4.7 point gain, the best rate since June 2011. Yet there might be a sign of a weather effect in deliveries as delivery times did slow by a moderate 1.1 points to 55.9, says Econoday.
So, it could be the weather as the Northeast experienced a Category 3 blizzard in March after two very warm months. But it could also be the US is approaching full employment, which means fewer workers are available to work. In any event, this is the lowest unemployment rate since the height of the last expansion in April 2007, though there is still very little wage growth. Average hourly earnings rose only 0.2 percent in the month for a year-on-year rate that is down 1 tenth in the month and further away from the 3 percent line, which historically has meant full employment.
There was softness in the labor markets as well, with retail trade down 30,000 in March following February's 31,000 decline. Trade & transportation payrolls decreased 27,000 following a 16,000 decline. But both manufacturing and mining show gains, at 11,000 each and with construction, despite the weather, still rising 6,000.
The government hiring freeze put in place in late January didn't hurt March payrolls for government payrolls which rose 9,000. But the huge drop in retail jobs could mean online buying is cutting into storefront businesses. And sure enough, Macy's is closing at least 100 stores and Sears and Roebuck could soon declare bankruptcy with its now $1billion in annual negative cashflow.
So, it looks like March was but a temporary blip in rising employment, and come April we will see a real spring awakening of economic activity. One caveat is abnormally low interest rates and a declining yield curve that usually presages some kind of economic slowdown.
Long term rates are falling at the moment, with the 10-year Treasury yield falling back to 2.30 percent, whereas the Fed just raised their short term, overnight fed funds rate to the 0.75 to 1.0 percent range. Hence there is a smaller difference between short and long term rates. This will squeeze bank profits and the availability of credit at a time when we still have an economy growing at just 2 percent.
And, that's why we need more actions by government and business to boost job creation and economic growth.
Labels: interest rates, ISM manufacturing survey, payroll jobs, UNEMPLOYMENT REPORT
Consumers Too Optimistic?....Then Watch Out Below!
Consumer confidence has risen to what might be unsustainable levels—the highest in 16 years. That was in 2000, which was at the end of a 10-year economic recovery, the longest recovery since WWII. The Conference Board's index is now at its strongest level since those dotcom boom days of December 2000 before that market crashed and the 9/11 attack occurred, says Econoday.
Stronger savings and rising wages are the main reason for the 9.5 point surge in the consumer confidence index to 125.6. Much of the optimism is after Donald Trump's campaign promises, which, if enacted could mean higher growth, though such growth depends more on factors outside of such campaign promises as higher import taxes and any change in tax policies. It actually depends much more on a faster growing workforce, and higher labor productivity—goals that will be difficult to achieve in today's polarized political climate.
Studies have shown that to even reach a 3 percent annual GDP growth, 2.8 million workers must be added to the US workforce every year, and just 600,000 native born workers currently reach working age because of a shrinking US birth rate. That and a very poor average productivity rate of 1.2 percent from 2010-2014 have constrained growth.
Consequently, the Trump administration's draconian attempts to cut back on immigration that would bring in new workers will only damage growth. The Trump administration is currently proposing as much as a 50 percent reduction in immigration.
Boosting job creation can be a two-edged sword, in that two-thirds of the jobs are in the service sector. Manufacturing has been making a comeback of late, but that has more to do with a recovery in the rest of the world, and lower dollar exchange rates, rather than the imposition of tariffs that are subject to retaliation.
Mexico, for instance, has threatened to either ban or raise taxes on the importation of US corn, a staple in Mexico that has driven many Mexican corn-growers out of business.
Econoday reports in the latest ISM Manufacturing Survey that "the new orders index is still, outside of February, the second strongest reading since December 2013. And new export orders are very strong, up 4.0 points to 59.0 for the best showing since November 2013. Backlog orders are understandably piling up, 1/2 point higher to a 57.5 rate of monthly growth that was last matched in March 2014 and last exceeded in April 2011."
So confidence is a good thing, if it encourages businesses and the economy to grow and create more jobs. But businesses act on hard facts, such as increased demand for their goods and services, rather than hope.
Labels: labor productivity, payroll jobs, real GDP growth
A Greater Lawlessness—On Tyranny
Have we elected a tyrant as President? It's hard to believe the clownish behavior and blatant lies of President Donald Trump could make him a tyrant, but author and history Professor Timothy Snyder says he has all the makings of a tyrant in On Tyranny, a pamphlet-size book making the rounds of talk shows.
It has 20 valuable lessons on how to avoid tyrannical governments, such as is happening now in Washington with one political party possibly controlling all 3 branches of government, if Supreme Court nominee Neil Gorsuch is confirmed—and why this is leading to the greatest lawlessness in our history with the Trump administrations and a Republican Party that is not only quiescent to his blatant lawbreaking, but in some ways has aided and abetted it.
"As they know," Snyder begins in his Prologue, "Aristotle warned that inequality brought instability, while Plato believed that demagogues exploited free speech to install themselves as tyrants."
We now have the greatest income inequality since 1929, and it led to the Great Recession and political polarization we have today. President Donald Trump would not have been possible, if incomes hadn't declined so drastically for those dissatisfied white voters from the rust-belt.
And then there was the Russian meddling in our media with thousands of bots sending out fake social media news, Tweets, and Wikileaks exploiting the hacked Democrat's emails, not to speak of Breitbart propaganda campaign of inflaming the alt-right, all white nationalists.
Professor Snyder listed 3 of the most important lessons on HBO's Bill Maher show.
#1) "Don't obey in advance—Most of the power of authoritarianism is freely given. In times like these, individuals think ahead about what a more repressive government will want, and then offer themselves without being asked."
How could that happen? How could West Virginians in the heart of what was formerly coal country vote more than 2 to 1 for Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton in a historically Democratic state?
And this is leading to the of Trump voters' acquiescence in the rollback of environmental laws that will allow more and dirtier coal mining, as well as coal-powered plants, when more than 250 coal plants have already closed, with cheaper natural gas replacing coal.
It is mainly out of ignorance of what was in their best interests. Coal now occupies but a minor position in W Virginia's economy with natural gas and renewable energies having replaced it since 1980, according to Nobel Economist Paul Krugman.
#2) "Defend Institutions—It is institutions that help us to preserve decency. So choose an institution you care about—a court, a newspaper, a law, a labor union—and take its side."
Sound familiar? What has Donald Trump been attacking—the courts, the media ("enemies of the people"), laws that prevent conflicts of interest, and labor union laws that protect worker safety. I might add scientific facts, as he has said he believes global warming a "hoax". So in effect Trump is attacking all of the institutions that preserve decency and a functioning democracy.
"Institutions do not protect themselves. They fall one after the other unless each is defended from the beginning," said Snyder.
#3) "Above all believe in truth," as without truth there is no trust, and without trust there are no effective laws, which leads to tyranny. And candidate, now President Donald Trump, has made a point of blatant lying, meaning he wants his followers to believe whatever he says rather than objective facts such as global warming, or size of the audience that attended his inauguration.
This can only be because his followers have acquiesced in advance, either out of ignorance of the actual facts, or because they will follow him regardless of the consequences to themselves and the nation.
We can only preserve democracy and defeat tyranny in all its forms—including fascism, racism, discrimination, propaganda, oligarchies, if we learn from history. "History does not repeat, but it does instruct," says Professor Snyder in On Tyranny, a must read for anyone wanting to understand the rise of President Trump.
Labels: Dictators, Donald Trump, Republican Party, Russian Oligarchs, Tyranny, Vladimir Putin


text:
Q: Update Primary Key with NVARCHAR Sequence I have a Microsoft SQL Server 2012 database with a table called Lineitem. This table has a primary key field Code and currently has more than 1,000,000 rows.
I need to update the primary key with a NVARCHAR that starts from Li000000001 and that increments like this Li000000002, Li000000003 etc.
How can I do this technically please?

A: The best solution is to use:

*

*an ID INT IDENTITY(1,1) column to get SQL Server to handle the automatic increment of your numeric value (-> this is probably your existing Code column)

*a computed, persisted column to convert that numeric value to the value you need
So try this:
ALTER TABLE dbo.LineItem
ADD AlphaCode AS N'Li' + RIGHT('000000000' + CAST(ID AS NVARCHAR(9)), 9) PERSISTED

Now, every time you insert a row into LineItem, SQL Server will automatically increase your Code value (as it has so far), and AlphaCode will contain values like Li000000001, Li000000002,...... and so on - automatically, safely, reliably, no duplicates.

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


text:
Q: Trying to get search bar under nav bar I'm very new to html, css, bootstrapping, and web development in general. I'm working on a website right now, and I'm using bootstrap. In the header, I want to add google's search bar right underneath my nav bar, but no matter what I do it comes out looking wrong. So far I've gotten to this, but I can't make it match in length or anything. Please help, here is my html code for the header so far.

<img src="../../Pictures/cips-logo-default.png"

      <gcse:search></gcse:search>

and here is the css

@charset "utf-8";
/* CSS Document */

body{
 font-family: "Lato";
 font-weight: 300;
 background: ##ccd844;
 background-image: url("zenbg-1.png"), url("zenbg-2.png");
 background-repeat: repeat-x, repeat;
}

header {
  padding: 20px 0;
}

header .row,
footer .row {
  display: flex;
  align-items: center;
}

header h1 {
  font-weight: 700;
  margin: 0;
}

header nav {
  display: flex;
  justify-content: flex-end;
  flex-wrap: wrap;
  font-size: 18px;
  -webkit-transition: margin 0.5s ease-out;
  -moz-transition: margin 0.5s ease-out;
  -o-transition: margin 0.5s ease-out;
  transition: all 0.3s ease 0s;
  margin-top: 60px;
}

header form {
 display: flex;
    justify-content: flex-end;
 margin-left: 70px;
}

header nav img:hover {
    margin-top: 2px;
}

header p {
  padding: 0 20px;
  margin: 0;
}
<!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD XHTML 1.0 Transitional//EN" "http://www.w3.org/TR/xhtml1/DTD/xhtml1-transitional.dtd">

      <title>The Knowledge Enterprise</title>
      <meta charset="utf-8" />

        <link rel="stylesheet" href="https://maxcdn.bootstrapcdn.com/bootstrap/3.3.6/css/bootstrap.min.css"/>
      <link href='https://fonts.googleapis.com/css?family=Roboto:300,400,700' rel='stylesheet' type='text/css'>
      <link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="main.css">

<img src="http://i.imgur.com/FsPDZRt.png"

          <gcse:search></gcse:search>

A: I don't exactly know how your script works but try to wrap the script within an other div with proper class name to align content in the same way.

<img src="http://i.imgur.com/FsPDZRt.png"

        <gcse:search></gcse:search>


President Trump directed the U.S. Department of Commerce to investigate whether imported cars and auto parts pose a national security threat justifying tariffs of up to 25%. The Commerce Department will "consider whether the decline of domestic automobile and automotive parts production threatens to weaken the internal economy of the United States, including by potentially reducing research, development and jobs for skilled workers in connected vehicle systems, autonomous vehicles, fuel cells, electric motors and storage, advanced manufacturing processes and other cutting-edge technologies." The Commerce Department has nine months to complete the investigation and issue a report, after which the president will have three months to decide what actions, if any, to take.
According to U.S. government statistics, about 12 million cars and trucks were produced in the United States in 2017, while 8.3 million vehicles were imported. Most of the imports were from Mexico (2.4 million), Canada (1.8 million), Japan (1.7 million), South Korea (930,000) and Germany (500,000). The United States exported nearly 2 million vehicles last year. Imports from Mexico and Canada would not be covered by the tariffs if the NAFTA Accord remains in place.
Section 232 of a 1962 U.S. trade law provides authority to launch the national security investigation, and was the basis for tariffs imposed in March on steel (25%) and aluminum (10%). The steel/aluminum tariffs are global, although allied countries with free trade practices are exempt. June 1 is the current deadline for countries to negotiate an exemption. To date, only Argentina, Australia, Brazil and South Korea are exempt. Companies may seek one-year tariff exclusions if it can be demonstrated that U.S. producers don't offer the specific type of steel or aluminum needed. More than 9,000 exclusion requests have been filed to date.
In a separate action, the 25% tariffs under consideration for certain products from China would be authorized under Section 301 of the trade law, which applies to unfair trade practices, such as intellectual property theft. The U.S. Trade Representative has tentatively identified 1,300 types of Chinese products worth around $50 billion that would be subject to the tariffs if U.S./Chinese negotiators are unable to resolve the dispute. The final product list is expected to be announced by June 15, with tariffs to be imposed shortly thereafter.
SEMA opposes the steel/aluminum tariffs and threatened Chinese tariffs as misplaced and having the potential to impose significant harm on U.S. businesses and consumers. The imported auto/parts investigation is similarly misguided, and could threaten global trade and complex supply chains. While it is important to identify and challenge unfair trade practices, tariffs are a heavy-handed form of taxation that lead to unintended trade retaliation and loss of American jobs.


Tenia here from Jazzy Paper Designs with a super fun card made with Imagine and Tsukineko products. Magenta is such a beautiful color and makes a great color theme for a craft project or handmade card. I made this easy CAS card for today's post — Check it!
I started by adding Rose Bud Fireworks Craft Spray onto white cardstock to add some shimmer and color to the background. Then I stamped the Hello Friend sentiment onto journal cardstock using Lilac Posies Memento Ink. This color is a bit darker and richer than Rose Bud and thought it worked well. Next, I added more Rose Bud Fireworks spray onto scrap white cardstock, and die cut with a heart die after it was dry. Fireworks can do a lot as a craft spray. I went heavy on the die cut cardstock in order to get a good saturation for the little hearts. Next, I attached the hearts onto the journal card panel and attached the entire journal card onto the splatter panel. My favorite finishing touch is to add washi and sticker stitches. And finally, adhere the image panel onto a blank card base and it is ready to gift!
Watercolor patterns continue to be popular among paper crafters. Take off the cap from Fireworks and Cherry Blossom Walnut Ink spray bottles and drop a few ink droplets on the craft mat or a paint palette. Using plenty of water, paint the background with light pink Walnut Ink. Before the paper is dry, add highlights with vivid pink Fireworks and let the colors mix. Dry with a heat gun or let air dry. Apply Memento ink of the desired color on the flower stamp. Mist gently with water. Stamp the flower images on the watercolor background. Let dry or dry with a heat gun. When using layered images stamp the lighter background color first before using a darker one for the upper layer. Dry each layer before stamping the next. Dip a small paint brush in the Fireworks ink. Tap the brush to create a splatter effect on the background. Let dry. Stamp the "hello my friend" sentiment, trim the card front to size, mat on magenta paper, and adhere to the card base and you are ready to go!
We were challenged this May to use the color magenta in our craft projects. I wanted to create an easy, sophisticated card with pops of magenta. Adding magenta to my card in just three places really focuses on and highlights the pops of color. This easy card can be replicated in any color palette and for any occasion – making it a great go-to design when you need a quick and easy card!
Cut cardstock 4 ¼" x 11". Score at 5 ½" to create card base. Ink largest image (background stamp image) with Gray Flannel Memento ink. Stamp onto card base. Ink leaf stamp with Tuxedo Black Memento ink and stamp. Repeat two more times or as desired. On scrap paper stamp the" journal box" images and "You More" saying, as shown, with Gray Flannel. On scrap paper stamp, with Lilac Posies Memento ink, butterfly and heart. Cut out butterfly and heart. Gently 'roll' the wings of the butterfly around a pencil to form their shape. Attach metallic silver thread to back of the butterfly and attach butterfly and heart to the card as shown. With a small butterfly paper punch – punch a butterfly on a scrap of vellum paper. Attach to butterfly as shown. Add two bitty sparkles to vellum butterfly. Stamp 'love' inside journal block with Lilac Posies Memento ink. Use foam tape to attach to card. Spritz card with several sprays of Frost Sheer Shimmer Spritz to finish.
This entry was posted in Cards, Elina Stromberg, Mischelle Smith, PROJECTS, Tenia Renee Nelson and tagged Cards, DIY, Fireworks Spray, Memento, On Point Glue, Sheer Shimmer Spritz, Stamp, stamps, tear it tape, Walnut Ink. Bookmark the permalink.
In love with your watercolour background and those little heart dies are totally cute! Great inspiration thanks!


Graficset - Gràfic Set PCI, S.L.
Born in 1972, we are a communication company specialized in textile and construction industry.
With more than 45 years of experience in the sector, we help to add value to the chain of manufacture and supply of the product of a company thanks to the scope of our main aim: to guarantee the satisfaction of our clients. It is possible to us due to the wide preparation and formation of our technical staff and also to the constant innovation in products for the textile and the construction industries.
We are a highly flexible, specialized, professional and communicative company focused on concrete goals and personal value, contributing to the top in all the operations in which we embark. For us, the human factor is our differentiating element, which encourages our efficiency as a team and our commitment as human people.
Our mission is based on the development of a product that fits perfectly to the needs of the client, in accordance with the responses of sustainability and safety of the textile and constructive markets. This goes through our vision, which lies in being leaders in the service and the advice of our clients. We get completely involved in the evolution and in the materialization of its goals.
– Priority over process and products development eco-friendly, including the consumption of the ideal resources and the improvement of their final quality.
– Commitment with the following of the international regulation, which regulates the safe use of the textile product regarding the final consumer.
– Proximity with our client and complicity with our supplier.
– Own creativity in the processes and the products that we manufacture, betting for the investment in new technologies that allow offering original and differentiated solutions.
– Confidence in our technical and production team, understanding the staff and the team-working as the most effective tools for our company.