Jews settlement in Krakow dates back to the early Middle Ages. At the beginning, they inhabited close to the St. Anne's Church. Then the city council assigned them near to the Szczepanski Square, but at the end of the 15th century Polish king Jan Olbracht resettled Jewish community to the neighboring Kazimierz district (which was a separate city at that time). Why there exactly? Because another Jewish community already existed around the Szeroka (Broad) St., so they could connect themselves. Jews have lived in Kazimierz for more than 400 years and during that time they established few synagogues, prayer houses, baths, cemeteries and schools. Christians respected their lifestyle, language, customs and religious distinctiveness. That is why we still can find in Kazimierz unique remains of Jewish culture.
Szeroka St. is closed with the oldest synagogue in Poland – the Old Synagogue, a Gothic building from the 15th century. At the beginning, there was only a prayer house for men, but the community quickly decided to extend it with an extra space for women and other additional outbuildings (eg. school). During World War II the synagogue was taken over by the German Treuhand and used as a warehouse. After post-war reconstructions it became a belonging of the Historical Museum of the City of Krakow. You can see there an exhibition devoted to Jewish religion and traditions.
In Szeroka Street we can find another synagogue – the 16th-century Remuh Synagogue (New Synagogue), with surrounding cemetery (set here because of the lack of space in Jewish Kazimierz). Its foundation relates to royal merchant and banker Izrael Isserles Auerbach, who in 1553 donated his private estate for a prayer house. But the name Remuh connects with Rabbi Moses Isserles (1525–1572), known by the Hebrew acronym ReMA, who is famed for writing a collection of commentaries and additions of Ashkenazi traditions and customs. After the war, the synagogue became the property of the Jewish community and to this day runs as an active prayer house to local Israelites.
Walking through the narrow streets of Kazimierz, you should visit Miodowa (Honey) St., where Synagogue Tempel stands. It establishment was an idea of the Association of Progressive Jews who wanted to assimilate with Polish nation (eg. by educating young people – growing Jewish intelligence). The Moorish Revival building was designed by Ignacy Hercok and built in 1860–1862 (designed on the pattern of the Leopoldstädter Tempel, in Vienna). Services in this synagogue took place according to the guidelines agreed by innovative German rabbis (the most famous of local preachers, moral and spiritual teacher was Uzziah Thon).
Plac Nowy (the New Square named also the 'Jewish Square') became lately an art, cultural, food and shopping center of Kazimierz. It is visited not only by locals, but also by tourists. The common name of the circular building that stands in the very center of the square is 'Okrąglak'. Since 1927 till the World War II it functioned as the ritual poultry slaughterhouse.
Picturesque streets of Kazimierz conceal four more synagogues built in the 16th and 17th century, definitely worth visiting. These are: Popper Synagogue, High Synagogue, Isaac Synagogue and Kupa.
Planning a tour of the Jewish Kazimierz it is good to ensure that our walk will not be on a Saturday or time of any of the Jewish holidays, because synagogues and cemeteries are closed then. Let us also remember that while visiting above monuments, men are obliged to cover their head, and women should hide legs and arms.


We offer a dedicated shuttle to our students from our housing locations to the Ai Atlanta campus.
Students may use public transportation through the Metropolitan Atlanta Rapid Transportation Authority (MARTA). For more information about bus stops and fares, visit http://www.itsmarta.com/.
The city of Atlanta also has many taxi and ride-sharing services available.
The closest bus stop to campus is Sandy Springs.
Ai Atlanta students can purchase discount passes for public transportation at the campus bookstore.


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Nokia to make a comeback next year, to launch a smartphone and virtual reality tech: Report
It was nearly a year back that Microsoft completed the acquisition of Nokia's smartphone business. While it was thought to be the end of the Finnish company's hardware plans, it seems we might jus
Sambit Satpathy
Updated: April 20, 2015 6:31 PM IST
It was nearly a year back that Microsoft completed the acquisition of Nokia's smartphone business. While it was thought to be the end of the Finnish company's hardware plans, it seems we might just see Nokia branded smartphones once again.
Nokia Technologies, the smallest of the three units Nokia still retains, is working on projects that could lead to its re-entry into the smartphone business, Re/code reports.
The publication cites sources familiar with Nokia Technologies' plans, claiming that it will not only make a return to the consumer mobile market, but it also has some "ambitious technology projects" lined up including a virtual reality kit.
As a part of Microsoft's deal with Nokia, the latter isn't allowed to use the Nokia branding on any smartphone until Q4, 2016. The restrictions didn't stop the Finnish company from designing an Android-powered tablet called the N1. It licensed a Chinese company to manufacture the tablet, use its brand name and sell it in China.
According to the publication, the team behind the Nokia N1 is allegedly working on the company's forthcoming smartphone as well. With the restrictions lifting next year, Nokia would like to come back into the game. However, this time Nokia won't invest in its own manufacturing or even setting up retail channels. Instead it would design products and let others manufacture and license it to sell under Nokia's brand name.
The publication further states that Nokia is working on a virtual reality project to take on the likes of the Samsung, Facebook and HTC among others. Details are however non-existent at the moment.
The report comes a couple of days after Nokia announced that it was buying telecom equipment company Alcatel-Lucent for $16.6 billion. It also revealed that the company was reviewing its HERE navigation business, and could consider a sale.
Published Date: April 20, 2015 6:27 PM IST
Updated Date: April 20, 2015 6:31 PM IST
Nokia smartphone launch
Nokia mobile fan festival: HMD offering Rs 4,000 gift card on Nokia phones
Nokia 1, Nokia 3.1 Plus updates rolling out
Nokia 9 PureView now available via offline stores
Nokia 3 gets July security update with major security fix
Nokia 5, Nokia 6 updates rolling out

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


The cross value chain Alliance to End Plastic Waste (AEPW), currently made up of nearly thirty member companies, has committed over $1.0 billion with the goal of investing $1.5 billion over the next five years to help end plastic waste in the environment.
"Success will require collaboration and coordinated efforts across many sectors - some that create near-term progress and others that require major investments with longer timelines. Addressing plastic waste in the environment and developing a circular economy of plastics requires the participation of everyone across the entire value chain and the long term commitment of businesses, governments, and communities. No one country, company or community can solve this on their own," said Veolia CEO Antoine Frérot, a vice chairman of the AEPW.


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Bizarre News Space and time
There Could Be 36 active alien Civilizations in Our Galaxy
16th June 2020 Ominy science editory team 0 Comments
According to a new study in The Astrophysical Journal, there could be dozens of intelligent alien civilizations hiding in our galaxy, all capable of communicating.
One of the biggest and longest-standing questions in the history of human thought is whether there are other intelligent life forms within our Universe. Obtaining good estimates of the number of possible extraterrestrial civilizations has however been very challenging.
A new study led by the University of Nottingham and published in The Astrophysical Journal has taken a new approach to this problem.
Using the assumption that intelligent life forms on other planets in a similar way as it does on Earth, researchers have obtained an estimate for the number of intelligent communicating civilizations within our own galaxy the Milky Way.
They calculate that there could be over 30 active communicating intelligent civilizations in our home Galaxy.
Professor of Astrophysics at the University of Nottingham, Christopher Conselice who led the research, explains:
"There should be at least a few dozen active civilizations in our Galaxy under the assumption that it takes 5 billion years for intelligent life to form on other planets, as on Earth."
Conselice also explains that, "The idea is looking at evolution, but on a cosmic scale. We call this calculation the Astrobiological Copernican Limit."
First author Tom Westby explains: "The classic method for estimating the number of intelligent civilizations relies on making guesses of values relating to life, whereby opinions about such matters vary quite substantially.
Our new study simplifies these assumptions using new data, giving us a solid estimate of the number of civilizations in our Galaxy.
READ MORE A new moon radiation measurement may help determine health risks to astronauts
The two Astrobiological Copernican limits are that intelligent life forms in less than 5 billion years, or after about 5 billion years – similar to on Earth where a communicating civilization formed after 4.5 billion years.
In the strong criteria, whereby a metal content equal to that of the Sun is needed (the Sun is relatively speaking quite metal rich), we calculate that there should be around 36 active civilizations in our Galaxy."
The research shows that the number of civilizations depends strongly on how long they are actively sending out signals of their existence into space, such as radio transmissions from satellites, television, etc.
If other technological civilizations last as long as ours which is currently 100 years old, then there will be about 36 ongoing intelligent technical civilizations throughout our Galaxy.
However, the average distance to these civilizations would be 17,000 light-years away, making detection and communication very difficult with our present technology. It is also possible that we are the only civilization within our Galaxy unless the survival times of civilizations like our own are long.
Professor Conselice continues: "Our new research suggests that searches for extraterrestrial intelligent civilizations not only reveals the existence of how life forms, but also gives us clues for how long our own civilization will last. If we find that intelligent life is common then this would reveal that our civilization could exist for much longer than a few hundred years, alternatively if we find that there are no active civilizations in our Galaxy it is a bad sign for our own long-term existence.
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By searching for extraterrestrial intelligent life even if we find nothing we are discovering our own future and fate."
Journal reference
The Astrobiological Copernican Weak and Strong Limits for Intelligent Life
We present a cosmic perspective on the search for life and examine the likely number of Communicating Extra-Terrestrial Intelligent (CETI) civilizations in our Galaxy by utilizing the latest astrophysical information.
Our calculation involves Galactic star formation histories, metallicity distributions, and the likelihood of stars hosting Earth-like planets in their habitable zones, under specific assumptions which we describe as the Astrobiological Copernican Weak and Strong conditions.
These assumptions are based on the one situation in which intelligent, communicative life is known to exist on our own planet. This type of life has developed in a metal-rich environment and has taken roughly 5 Gyr to do so.
We investigate the possible number of CETI civilizations based on different scenarios. At one extreme is the Weak Astrobiological Copernican scenario such that a planet forms intelligent life sometime after 5 Gyr, but not earlier. The other is the Strong Astrobiological Copernican scenario in which life must form between 4.5 and 5.5 Gyr, as on Earth.
In the Strong scenario (under the strictest set of assumptions), we find there should be at least ${36}_{-32}^{+175}$ civilizations within our Galaxy: this is a lower limit, based on the assumption that the average lifetime, L, of a communicating civilization is 100 yr (since we know that our own civilization has had radio communications for this time).
If spread uniformly throughout the Galaxy this would imply that the nearest CETI is at most ${17,000}_{-10,000}^{+33,600}$ lt-yr away and most likely hosted by a low-mass M-dwarf star, likely far surpassing our ability to detect it for the foreseeable future, and making interstellar communication impossible.
READ MORE Amid pandemic, wildfires close in on abandoned Chernobyl nuclear site
Furthermore, the likelihood that the host stars for this life are solar-type stars is extremely small and most would have to be M dwarfs, which may not be stable enough to host life over long timescales. We furthermore explore other scenarios and explain the likely number of CETI there are within the Galaxy based on variations of our assumptions.
← Population ageing and mortality during 1990–2017: A global decomposition analysis
Wild hummingbirds see a broad range of colors humans can only imagine →
A former SpaceX intern is suing the company, claiming retaliation after reporting sexual harassment
29th August 2020 Ominy science editory team 0
Scientists reveal regions of the brain where serotonin promotes patience
30th November 2020 30th November 2020 Ominy science editory team 0
Moth-inspired robot swarms could soon sniff out harmful substances


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More Trends News
#BizTrends2018: Make sure you're at the heart of disruption
8 Jan 2018 | Email | Print | PDF
By: Damian Michael
I recently travelled to Dubai to attend the 37th Gitex Technology Week - where the future of business begins. Tech pioneers and futurists, business leaders and IT professionals come to GITEX to experience the world's most advanced technology and drive digital transformation...
Damian Michael, founder and MD of iNNOVO Networks
GITEX Technology Week is a game-changing, must-attend event located in Dubai – the world's fastest growing technology hub. For 37 years, visionaries and tech pioneers have been descending on the city to witness first-hand the technology that has inspired generations and innovations that are set to change the world.
A dynamic innovation hub, a bridge between east and west, a pioneer in technology innovation and early adoption makes theoretical technology a mass-consumption reality. In just a few decades, Dubai has reinvented itself from a quiet fishing port to a global investment hub and leading travel destination, now renowned for its record-setting skyline, driverless metro, and man-made islands.
Its comprehensive government investments in digital innovation to advance key social, economic, governance and environmental indicators, means this incredible transformation will only gain pace in coming years.
These are the trends I predict we'll see more of in 2018:
1. Hype vs reality
Artificial intelligence (AI) is everywhere, promising self-driving cars, medical breakthroughs, and new ways of working. But how do you separate hype from reality? How can a company apply AI to solve real business problems in 2018?
Here's a synopsis of what I learnt, and which AI learnings your business should keep in mind for 2018.
We've all seen the sensational headlines: "The robots are coming, and they'll take our jobs!", "AI can do your job faster and more accurately than you can!"
Human jobs won't go away, but they will change. Roles will be more creative and specialised as AI is integrated into the workday.
Better data leads to better math, leads to better predictions, so people using AI can automate the tedious work and take action on the insights. AI does the math faster, saving money by automating normally complex processes. It makes your life easier even now, behind the scenes. This is what it looks like today. In the longer term, AI will transform industries.
#BizTrends2018: Gearing up for a world of connected things
By Deon Liebenberg 11 Jan 2018
One of AI's promises is to make self-driving cars safer. AI will power everyday driving decisions, such as whether to stop abruptly or swerve to avoid hitting an obstacle. AI will help redesign the entire shopping experience, optimising everything with more and better data. Retailers will seamlessly stock the precise number of goods needed on shelves at any given time, and know which product at which price should be highlighted to a specific customer as they navigate a store.
2. The blockchain landscape
Blockchain is emerging as the mainstay for digital identities in the emerging trust economy. The total market capitalisation of cryptocurrencies hovers around $150B (with a single bitcoin trading for more than $5,000). Blockchain technology has fostered a renewed examination of today's highly centralised web, and reignited conversations around currency and value, digital governance, and the fundamental structures and rails of our modern internet.
Blockchain promises to solve this problem. The technology at the heart of bitcoin and other virtual currencies, blockchain is an open, distributed ledger that can record transactions between two parties efficiently and in a verifiable and permanent way.
The ledger itself can also be programmed to trigger transactions automatically.
With blockchain, we can imagine a world in which contracts are embedded in digital code and stored in transparent, shared databases, where they are protected from deletion, tampering, and revision.
In this world, every agreement, every process, every task, and every payment would have a digital record and signature that could be identified, validated, stored, and shared.
Intermediaries like lawyers, brokers, and bankers might no longer be necessary. Individuals, organisations, machines, and algorithms would freely transact and interact with one another with little friction.
This is the immense potential of blockchain and the rise of decentralising various industries eg. telecoms, finance, freight etc.
3. Smart systems and robots
Using automation to assist human doctors with surgery, provide diagnostics and other applications.
Robots will play an increasingly important role in business and life in general. Robotics will continue to accelerate innovation, thus disrupting and changing the paradigm of business operations in many industries.
Robotics can sharpen a company's competitive edge by improving quality, increasing operational productivity and agility, and enhancing experiences of all stakeholders.
#BizTrends2018: E-sports in South Africa - it's only just begun
By Barry Louzada 8 Jan 2018
In the future, there will be a robot-as-a-service (RaaS) business model. Organisations will implement a chief robotics officer role and/or define a robotics-specific function within the business.
Robotics will face regulation. I believe by 2019, government entities will begin implementing robotics-specific regulations to preserve jobs and to address concerns about security, safety, and privacy.
E-commerce and omni-channel commerce companies will deploy robotics systems in their order fulfilment warehousing and delivery operations. This has already been implemented at Gitex.
In the end, high-performing organisations of the future will be those who position themselves at the centre of the digital ecosystem, taking control and making sure that they are at the heart of disruption.
View more ICT trends in the BizTrends2018 special section.
Damian Michael
BizTrends 2018
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About Damian Michael
Damian Michael is the founder & MD at iNNOVO Networks. Nominated for the second time in this year's Entrepreneur of the Year Awards, Michael holds a wealth of versatile experience in both the public and the private sector. After completing his apprenticeship in the SA Navy as a radio/radar technician, he worked in sales and senior management positions for ICT operators like Vodacom and MTN, and was involved in successfully launching Neotel in South Africa.
Read more: robotics, Damian Michael, BizTrends 2018
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#BizTrends2022: Culture shock in the imaging industry5 Jan 2022
Picking up the pace of healthcare innovation22 Sep 2021
A few things to consider before introducing coding and robotics to SA schools26 May 2021
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A sticky situation: Part 2: Post humans, frogs and AGI27 Apr 2021


"We're here for the youth, that's what it's always been about," said Idle No More activist, Carrie Lester (Mohawk). "So many times [Indigenous youth] voices have been swept under the carpet and with each generation another group stands up and says, enough is enough. How many times do we have to do that?" Lester was one of the many activists who spoke at the closing ceremony of the nationwide occupation of Indigenous and Northern Affairs Canada (INAC) offices that sustained international attention on the suicide epidemic in Attawapiskat and demanded government action.
Since Attawapiskat first declared a state of emergency, many grassroots organizations, supporters and activists have stepped up to show their love and solidarity for Indigenous youth- one of them being Tristan Martell.
Years ago, Martell spent some time in Moose Factory ON, teaching dance to First Nations youth. While teaching, he built a connection with the community and travelled around to other northern First Nations and learned about the struggles they face, including Attawapiskat's struggles. As soon as he heard about the suicide epidemic, he started to put the wheels into motion to send care packages to the First Nations community.


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Kling agrees that prediction markets outperform surveys
Suppose that instead of ratings, you asked consumers to vote with dollars. For any movie, a consumer who owns the movie can post an "ask" price and a consumer who does not own the movie can post a "bid" price. To ensure that these prices are real, every once in a while, you would fill all the orders for a particular customer--that is, you would buy the consumers' DVD's at her asking prices and sell her DVD's at her bid prices.
Welcome to the club, Arnold.
Posted by Caveat B at 4:53 PM 0 comments
Remembering Bill Walsh
I've admired Walsh since the 80s. He changed the game with the precision passing strategy, which led to a bunch of rings. He made a lot of players look great, who never looked as good with other programs. He didn't talk trash, but worked with consistent class. And he stayed faithful to his wife, in her health and sickness. Here's Nick Carfado:
LOS ANGELES -- There were hundreds of people closer to Bill Walsh than this reporter, but in our many conversations over a four- or five-year stretch it was evident how much Walsh loved baseball.
"How are those Red Sox doing?" the legendary coach of the 49ers asked me a couple of years ago. "I like Terry Francona's style. Does a good job with the players doesn't he? They really respond to him. That's what coaching and managing is all about. Do your players listen to you? Do they respond to what you're trying to do? You can tell how a team responds to a leader even from afar."
So Walsh, who died yesterday at age 75 after a long battle with leukemia, would have loved today, and what it could mean for the sport.
In his later years, when he worked at Stanford and took care of his wife, Geri, who was ill, Walsh was interested in all sports.
He loved to watch great players in any sport and he admired excellent coaching or managing, though I remember being chastised for referring to him as a genius. "That's Einstein, not a football coach," he said. "A football coach isn't a genius. He's just a football coach."
Because there weren't often trades in football, Walsh was always fascinated by the art of the deal. He was a big Red Auerbach fan for that reason.
Walsh was a great coach. "The Genius" would have enjoyed this day in baseball.
UPDATE: Additional quotes:
"In the recent or modern history of the NFL," said Baltimore Ravens Coach Brian Billick, "no coach has been more influential and innovative than Bill Walsh."
"The offensive philosophy that he installed in those great 49er teams more than 25 years ago will remain his legacy," said another Hall of Fame coach, Don Shula.
"People use the word genius and we usually scoff at that," John Madden, the Hall of Fame coach with the Oakland Raiders and longtime NFL broadcaster and analyst, said yesterday. "In his case, I don't think you can scoff at it."
Allen Barra has more:
It was as a teacher, though, that Mr. Walsh had his greatest and most lasting influence on football. Unlike Lombardi, who left worshippers but no disciples, Mr. Walsh spawned an entire generation of acolytes. His defensive coordinator George Seifert won two Super Bowls with San Francisco; his offensive coordinator Mike Holmgren won one with Green Bay. Mr. Seifert's pupil Mike Shanahan, schooled in Mr. Walsh's methods, won two more with Denver.
Mr. Walsh's influence on football today is so pervasive that nearly 20 years after his final game, the Super Bowl has practically become an annual showcase for his adherents. This past February, Indianapolis coach Tony Dungy, a former player under Mr. Walsh, squared off against the Chicago Bears' Lovie Smith, who trained as an assistant to Dennis Green, once a Walsh receiver's coach.
That Messrs. Dungy and Smith were the first African-American coaches to reach the Super Bowl highlights perhaps Mr. Walsh's greatest legacy: In 1987, he helped create the Minority Coaching Fellowship Program. "I can tell you this," says Mr. Dungy, "his life was about much more than just X's and O's."
Cleaning up prediction markets
Justin Wolfers, ever the smart guy, says that point-spreads should go. (Via Felix Salmon).
Posted by Caveat B at 12:26 AM 0 comments
The Dark Matter of Minimum Wage earners
From the continually brilliant Steve Conover:
I went to the US Census Bureau's Statistical Abstract to check the numbers. I found table 634, "Workers Paid Hourly Rates" (see the last table on the list at this page), and could only find 479,000 workers who made the minimum wage in 2005. That's 12,500,000 fewer workers than the lefties' are saying will benefit from the minimum wage hike. (Note that 1.4 million workers were making less than minimum wage; because many jobs are exempted from the minimum, I'm presuming those workers would continue to be unaffected by a minimum wage increase.)
I never made the minimum wage. I was paid less than the minimum wage from ages 14-18, working landscaping, snow shoveling, babysitting, and dishwashing. When I started working for a gift importer after high school, I made almost 20% over minimum wage (but not really, because I often worked more than 8 hours a day, but only got paid for 8 hours per day).
All these jobs helped me make more than minimum wage for more than 2 decades now. I suspect most people who make minimum wage or less, do so for less than 20% of their time in the workforce.
Top 10 Reasons this Red Sox fan LIKES THE YANKEES
10. Javier Vazquez sucked, and the Yanks saved the Sox from getting him.
9. Like the ugly rock singer or awkward nerd who gets the girl, the 2004 season undid a lot of self-doubt. Without coming back from 0-3 against the prom king in the ALCS (let's call him Biff, in a tip to Back To The Future), it would not have been nearly as sweet.
8. El Duque sucked, and the Yanks saved the Sox from getting him.
7. George Steinbrenner's sunglasses remind me of Elton John's flaming accessories (based on an idea from my good friend Todd).
6. ARod, Jeter and Bucky Dent are as pretty as Gisele, Brady, and Bridget. DISCLAIMER: I'm getting old, so my standards are slipping.
5. Chen Ming Wang's pitching is scrubbing William Hung's singing off the D-List. Too bad my good friend Fazz throws all these chinese surnames around as if they were euphemisms for private parts. He and FDR would have gotten along great.
4. ARod doesn't suck, but he's overpaid, and the Yanks saved the Sox from getting him.
3. Because of the ARod signing, the Yanks missed out on Schilling. Swap those two, and 2004 ends differently.
2. Roger Clemens totally sucks, and the Yanks saved the Sox from getting him in his geriatric phase. (OK, he was one of the best ever to play the sport, like ...)
1. Mariano Rivera is one of the best ever to play the sport. To play any sport. Any Sox fan who wouldn't have wanted him in a Boston uniform doesn't know the game or a good man.
Steven Pinker's list of dangerous ideas
Here (via Tyler Cowen). A few of them are really discomfiting. Here's a sample of some that might be relevant for prediction markets:
Do women, on average, have a different profile of aptitudes and emotions than men?
Has the state of the environment improved in the last 50 years?
Would the incidence of rape go down if prostitution were legalized?
Do African-American men have higher levels of testosterone, on average, than white men?
Is homosexuality the symptom of an infectious disease?
Do parents have any effect on the character or intelligence of their children?
Would lives be saved if we instituted a free market in organs for transplantation?
Why bears will have a hard time waking up from the dead
Today's WSJ:
Foreign governments, flush with cash and no longer content with the meager returns to be had on safe but low-yielding investments like Treasurys, are becoming increasingly aggressive players on the equity front.
The new boldness of these government-controlled investors was on display Sunday night when entities controlled by the governments of China and Singapore agreed to invest as much as $18.5 billion in return for stakes in the big British bank Barclays PLC.
In doing so, Chinese lender China Development Bank and Temasek Holdings Pte. Ltd., the Singapore government's investment agency, could play a role in the outcome of the biggest bank-takeover battle ever. That increasingly bitter contest pits Barclays against a consortium of European banks led by Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC in seeking to acquire Dutch banking giant ABN ABN Amro Holding NV.
While potentially boosting their investment returns, such deals expose the government-controlled funds and other entities involved to risks that range from simple investment losses to political backlash. If it continues, the trend could also reshape global financial markets, bidding up prices for more speculative assets like stocks, corporate bonds and real estate, while crimping demand for safer investments like Treasury bonds.
"There has been a fairly spectacular increase in financial assets under management by governments," said Dominic Wilson, director of global macro and markets research at Goldman Sachs Group. "The scale of the issues around such investment is different than anything the world has ever seen. Neither [governments] nor the markets know exactly what they should do with the assets."
If completed, the Barclays deal would provide further evidence of an important global shift in wealth. "This is basically a flow of capital from emerging markets to established markets," says John Studzinski, former chief of investment banking at HSBC Holdings PLC and now head of Blackstone Group's mergers-and-acquisitions advisory group, which advised China Development on the deal. The private-equity firm's role shows how private and public investors are joining together to create powerful forces.
Labels: banking, China, economy, Singapore
Government bureaucrat shames economist
Here. (Usually, it's the other way around, or else some economists have become shills for bureaucracy).
Posted by Caveat B at 12:03 PM 0 comments
Chris Masse gets me
He predicts:
Bob Cook nailed it: Making bets legal everywhere would create oversight, transparency. (two pages)
Caveat Bettor will appreciate, I'm sure.
More noteworthy career advice from Scott Adams
He blogs:
I've come to call this ego-driven behavior the "loser decision." I don't mean it as an insult. It's an objective fact that life often presents us with choices where the comfortable decision leads nowhere and one that threatens your ego has all the potential in the world.
You need a healthy ego to endure the abuse that comes with any sort of success. The trick is to think of your ego as your goofy best friend who lends moral support but doesn't know [squat].
I recently linked to another piece of advice, here.
Morgan Stanley predicts 14% correction next month
From the Telegraph (via DealBreaker):
A study by the bank found that credit spreads began to widen on average six months before every stock market correction of 10pc or more over the past 20 years.
The current widening began in February, picking up speed over the past three weeks. If history is any guide, this could point to a global stock market slide as soon as August. Morgan Stanley's model suggests a 14pc fall, or 2,000 points off the Dow.
"This is not the first time that equity markets take their time to react to bad news," said the bank's chief Europe strategist, Teun Draaisma. "The fundamentals have deteriorated. Equities have reached all-time highs despite higher rates, wider spreads, higher oil, Chinese tightening, and a stronger euro.
"There is a widespread belief in continuation of good global growth without inflation. While we are not expecting a recession for another two to three years, we believe chances are high that this belief will be seriously tested soon."
A 15% correction in the S&P 500 brings it down to September 2006 levels (not adjusting for inflation or dividend yield). Bad, but not that bad, and if earnings continue to grow, then it's a buying opportunity.
Some WSJ reasons for the Dem fundraising lead over GOP
Today's article:
With more than a year to go before the 2008 elections, Democratic candidates have raised $100 million more in campaign contributions than Republicans, putting them on track to win the money race for the White House and Congress for the first time since the government began detailed accounting of campaign fund raising three decades ago.
Democrats have taken the lead by exploiting widespread disapproval of President Bush and the Iraq war to develop a more robust online network of new, small donors, as well as to gain traction with deep-pocketed business contributors.
Democrats have also benefited because of their comparative strength with Internet activists. While Republican voters tend to gravitate toward traditional media like talk radio, Democratic voters with strong opinions are more likely to go online to read blogs. That, in turn, has led to an explosion in online giving to Democrats, who are building lists of thousands of small-dollar donors for a fraction of the cost of traditional direct mail.
Blackstone Group, Carlyle Group and other members of the Private Equity Council trade group gave 69% of their $3.4 million in campaign donations to Democrats last year, up from 51% of $2.7 million in 2000, data from the Center for Responsive Politics show. Separate data for large hedge funds show a similar pattern of giving.
Other sectors are following suit. The securities industry flipped its allegiance to Democrats in 2006, giving more to Democrats than Republicans for the first time in a decade, the Center for Responsive Politics said.
Some wealthy Republicans also are switching sides, including business executives who want access to the levers of power, or who simply don't mind crossing party lines to support candidates they like. Many say they are disturbed by the steep growth in government spending under President Bush, as well as the perceived erosion of America's standing in the world.
New York venture capitalist and former American Express Co. Chief Executive James D. Robinson III, a lifelong Republican, says he is backing Mrs. Clinton. "She's been very involved in business development and sensitive to our issues," Mr. Robinson says.
Other Republicans supporting the New York Democrat for president include Terrence A. Duffy, executive chairman of CME Group, the Chicago-based commodities market; John Mack, Morgan Stanley Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Jeffrey Volk, who heads Citigroup Inc.'s global agency and trust business.
I posted this a week ago:
With the uncertainty of "Fred Thompson: in or out" many potential GOP donors are keeping their powder dry. What is the point of donating to Giuliani or Romney now, if one of them is going to fall out of the race before the end of the state primary cycle? Once the GOP Top 2 candidates are revealed (the way Hilary and Barack have been all quarter), the GOP will start catching up in their aggregate fundraising.
This may also have an effect with polls and pundits, which is why I believe that the Dem pricing of 56% chance of presidential victory is well below what the pollsters are reporting.
Cool career advice
Scott Adams hypothesizes:
If you want an average successful life, it doesn't take much planning. Just stay out of trouble, go to school, and apply for jobs you might like. But if you want something extraordinary, you have two paths:
1. Become the best at one specific thing.
2. Become very good (top 25%) at two or more things.
The first strategy is difficult to the point of near impossibility. Few people will ever play in the NBA or make a platinum album. I don't recommend anyone even try.
The second strategy is fairly easy. Everyone has at least a few areas in which they could be in the top 25% with some effort. In my case, I can draw better than most people, but I'm hardly an artist. And I'm not any funnier than the average standup comedian who never makes it big, but I'm funnier than most people. The magic is that few people can draw well and write jokes. It's the combination of the two that makes what I do so rare. And when you add in my business background, suddenly I had a topic that few cartoonists could hope to understand without living it.
Capitalism rewards things that are both rare and valuable. You make yourself rare by combining two or more "pretty goods" until no one else has your mix. I didn't spend much time with the script supervisor, but it was obvious that her verbal/writing skills were in the top tier as well as her people skills. I'm guessing she also has a high attention to detail, and perhaps a few other skills in the mix. Probably none of those skills are best in the world, but together they make a strong package. Apparently she's been in high demand for decades.
At least one of the skills in your mixture should involve communication, either written or verbal. And it could be as simple as learning how to sell more effectively than 75% of the world. That's one. Now add to that whatever your passion is, and you have two, because that's the thing you'll easily put enough energy into to reach the top 25%. If you have an aptitude for a third skill, perhaps business or public speaking, develop that too.
It sounds like generic advice, but you'd be hard pressed to find any successful person who didn't have about three skills in the top 25%.
What are your three?
This sounds right on, with a couple of caveats. Assuming that Adams can combine 3 top quartile abilities (drawing, humor, business experience), I calculate 25% ^ 3 to put him in the top 2% where those 3 dimensions intersect.
But often, it is difficult to combine 2 or more skills into 1 significant competitive advantage. Let's say I'm a good cook and I'm good at math. What could I do with that combination?
And skill combinations also have utilitarian limitations, such as physical capacities losing ground to intellectual skills.
Alex Forshaw on Edwards:
Edwards continues to fade. The Edwards and Obama campaigns released dueling New Hampshire ads; Gore lost steam, yet Edwards lost significant support as well. At the same time, Edwards has embarked on a strangely irrelevant "poverty tour" through some of the poorest parts of America. (Haircut... haircut...)
Unfortunately for Obama, many Edwards supporters have been driven to spluttering outrage at the relentless "narrative" of the "Edwards haircut," and how the "right-wing hate machine" is "manipulating" Edwards' public image. Edwards supporters fail to understand that, to 90% of the people pushing this narrative, it is not about highlighting Edwards' haircuts, $500,000 Fortress internship, and Chapel Hill palace because they are "out to get him" and stop his redistributionist agenda. It's about using simplistic data points to reveal -- not mischaracterize -- a profoundly hypocritical political opportunist who has portrayed his every repositioning as a spontaneous "Damascus moment," which coincidentally matched a concurrent tectonic shift in the political landscape. Iraq, bankruptcy reform, free trade, taxes, the larger anti-salafist war: you name it, and Edwards has had at least two positions on it.
Troy is back
From the Patriots website:
FOXBOROUGH, Mass. - The New England Patriots re-signed veteran wide receiver Troy Brown today.
In 2004, Brown earned accolades for his play on offense, defense and special teams, showing a level of versatility unmatched in recent NFL history. After injuries had taken a toll on the Patriots' secondary, Brown pitched in as the team's nickel back for the final nine games of the regular season and for all three of the Patriots' postseason contests as New England won Super Bowl XXXIX. He finished second on the team with three interceptions in the 2004 regular season and matched his reception total with 17 tackles on defense.
The Blackville, S.C. native has been a key contributor to each of the Patriots' three Super Bowl runs. In 2001, Brown led the team with 18 postseason receptions as New England won its first world championship in Super Bowl XXXVI. In that game against the St. Louis Rams, Brown led the team with six receptions and 89 yards, including a key 23-yard grab on the game-winning drive. Two years later, he tied for the team lead with 17 playoff receptions as the Patriots won Super Bowl XXXVIII over Carolina. He was again a key contributor in that game, finishing second on the team with eight receptions, including three grabs on the game-winning drive. In 2004, Brown played on offense, defense and special teams in all three playoff games, recording a total of five receptions and six tackles during New England's Super Bowl XXXIX title run.
Living in the past is a dangerous thing. But respecting history is not.
Giuliani reaches out to constitutional conservatives
Giuliani writes a column on his judicial philosophy (via Instapundit).
The greatest living american?
GREGG EASTERBROOK: Ignoring the greatest living American.
I think the candidate is worthy of consideration, but not because he along with Carter is the recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize. I mean, they gave that thing to this guy!
Hey this blog is a year old, this past July 10th!
Much too busy to remember these things. Hopefully I can remember my wedding anniversary better than this.
Thanks to all you readers and traders for your interest and support over the past year.
Iraq war costs
Menzie Chinn summarizes Iraq costs, quite nicely, over at Econbrowser.
Marginal utility theory for traders, from Freakonomics
Steve Levitt channels Daniel Bernoulli, in addressing utility, in an easy-to-read way:
At least for me, there are not too many questions that would lead me to respond, "For $25 million, no way, but for $50 million I'll think about it." Twenty-five million dollars is so much money that it's hard to think about what you would do with it. It sure would be nice to have the first $25 million. I'm not sure what I would need the second $25 million for.
The high-turnover (read high-extinction) traders in these prediction markets most likely have not familiarized themselves with expected utility. This is why they do not follow my recommendation of risking only 4% maximum of account total on any single contract. Or maybe there are some other reasons of which I know not--please send me a comment of enlightenment!
A little skepticism on the huge fundraising advantage of Hillary and Barack
Awhile back, I posted an update on the strong fund raising and cash positions of the Democratic front runners.
I've been thinking more about it since then, and suspect that the large Dem lead will diminish within the next 12 months. Having a little more exposure to campaign donations myself and more conversations with other donors, I've learned that donors HATE donating to a sure loser. But it happens, as some of my friends who have "had" to donate to Biden and Dodd have shared with me.
A lemma to the above principle: donors LIKE donating to a winner; I mean, that's the quid pro quo point, isn't it?
Giuliani contracts trading crazy
Apparently, there is a rumor flying around that Fred Thompson will not run, and Rudy is the largest beneficiary.
An inconvenient truth. For Al Gore.
From the Daily Mail:
The much-hyped bid to save the world is being masterminded by former U.S. vice president Al Gore - who helped focus attention on the environmental movement with his Oscar-winning film, An Inconvenient Truth - and features artists including The Police, Red Hot Chili Peppers, UB40 and Metallica.
No doubt to rapturous applause, Madonna will call for mass global change to reduce carbon emissions and to tackle 'climate crisis'.
Watching the veteran star lap up the adoration, her entourage could, however, be forgiven for exchanging slightly jaded glances - having witnessed her jet in for the concert from New York.
For her 2006 World Tour, she flew by private jet, transporting a team of up to 100 technicians and dancers around the globe. Waiting in the garage at home, she has a Mercedes Maybach, two Range Rovers, an Audi A8 and a Mini Cooper S.
Dr Collins estimates that the global audience for Live Earth will generate some 1,025 tonnes of waste. An extraordinary one million people are expected at the free concert at Rio de Janeiro's Copacabana beach, featuring Lenny Kravitz, Macy Gray and Pharrell Williams.
Live Earth say that they will recycle much of the waste generated. Fine talk, but in fact some of the concert venues are struggling to keep up with their commitments.
A spokesman for Wembley says they only have the capacity to recycle around a third of waste produced - the rest will go into landfill sites.
Travel forms the vast majority of the 'carbon footprint' talked of by ecological campaigners - contributing up to 90 per cent of the environmental 'cost'.
Collins says: "It is patently absurd to claim that travel of this nature doesn't have an impact. Each person attending the event will have to make a return journey to the venue, be it by air, rail, bus or car. This burns fossil fuel - precisely what we are trying to reduce.
"There is also the environmental cost of these artists flying around the world - that is absolutely huge."
Indeed, an audit of the lifestyles of the A-list performers appearing at Live Earth, reveals that they are among the worst individual polluters in the world, as their world tours and private jets billow thousands of tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere every year. One hour in a Gulfstream jet burns as much fuel as driving a family car for a year.
The Daily Mail has found that five of the top performing acts together have an annual output of almost 2,000 carbon tonnes. Madonna alone has an annual carbon footprint of 1,018 tonnes, according to John Buckley.
Remember, the average Briton produces just ten tonnes.
Posted by Caveat B at 9:24 AM 0 comments
Mankiw's integrity a surprise to Dubner?
Greg Mankiw self-discloses:
I don't blame Steve Dubner, though. As a fellow New Yorker, it's hard not to operate out of a default cynicism.
Alex Tabarrok on China's economic growth
Without denying Deng's importance, I would say that China's great leap forward came with the death of Mao Zedong. Once Mao - quite possibly the greatest human killer of the twentieth century - was dead, China could almost not help but improve.
Second, the Chinese people, especially the peasant farmers, deserve a huge amount of credit. Here's a couple of paragraphs I wrote recently:
The Great Leap Forward was a great leap backward - agricultural land was less productive in 1978 than it had been in 1949 when the communists took over. In 1978, however, farmers in the village of Xiaogang held a secret meeting. The farmers agreed to divide the communal land and assign it to individuals – each farmer had to produce a quota for the government but anything he or she produced in excess of the quota they would keep. The agreement violated government policy and as a result the farmers also pledged that if any of them were to be jailed the others would raise their children.
The change from collective property rights to something closer to private property rights had an immediate effect, investment, work effort and productivity increased. "You can't be lazy when you work for your family and yourself," said one of the farmers.
Word of the secret agreement leaked out and local bureaucrats cut off Xiaogang from fertilizer, seeds and pesticides. But amazingly, before Xiaogang could be stopped, farmers in other villages also began to abandon collective property.
Deng and others in the central leadership are to be credited with recognizing a good thing when they saw it but it was the farmers in villages like Xiaogang that began China's second revolution.
Addendum: For the story of Xiaogang I draw on John McMillan's very good book, Reinventing the Bazaar.
Labels: China, economics, freedom, history, property
USS Harry Truman and the Chinese
Bret Stephens, in OpinionJournal:
The Navy operates 11 carriers like the Truman. No other navy in the world comes close. The Chinese, who would love to have one or more carriers of their own, recently sent their top admiral for a tour of the Truman. Adm. Gortney recalls that the Chinese were mainly interested in two things. The first was the ship's arresting gear, the heavy cables that trap landing planes. The second was the way the Navy recruits, trains, organizes and motivates its sailors.
No doubt the Chinese will one day figure out the mechanics of landing planes at sea -- and of catapulting them off the deck. I wonder if they'll ever get the human element right. The men and women of the Truman are here as a matter of their own free will in order to defend our collective right to live freely. That's more than a matter of mechanics. It's a matter of spirit: the true source of the Truman's awesome power, and of its beauty, too.
Robert Solow on Joseph Schumpeter
Solow, mostly a follower of Schumpeter's rival Keynes, concludes:
It is possible to see Keynesian and Schumpeterian ideas as complementary. Keynes is about short-run economic fluctuations brought about by erratic variations in the willingness of investors and governments to spend; Schumpeter is about the long-run trajectory driven by the erratic march of technological progress. This complementarity only became clear later, after both men had died, when economic growth became an explicit objective of public policy and topic of systematic analysis. Schumpeter was left frustrated by the younger generation's affinity for his rival. In any case, the "preliminary volume" never materialized.
The world turns. Today, some sixty years after their deaths, Schumpeter's star probably outshines Keynes's. The business cycle has receded in importance, partly because the large industrial economies have sprouted a more stable structure, and partly because the lessons that Keynes taught have been learned by central banks and finance ministries. Instead, long-term economic growth has moved to the top of the political and intellectual agenda, and that was Schumpeter's topic. As Robert Lucas memorably put it, once you have begun to think about economic growth, it is hard to think about anything else. It is a pity that troubled old Schumpeter did not live to see the triumph of his obsession.
Even with several digs at him, the grudging respect sounds volumes. And the world is a better place because of old Schumpeter. (Via Eddy Elfenbein).
The intelligent solution can sometimes be more damaging than the problem
We really need those global warming contracts for trading (via Don Luskin):
Think of the greatest environmental disaster in recent history. For many people, the Exxon Valdez spill in Prince William Sound comes to mind.
Three hundred seals, 2,800 sea otters, 250,000 sea birds and a host of other wildlife were killed by that spill, acknowledged Corrie Pitzer, an industrial psychologist from SAFEmap International in Vancouver. However, he added, 250,000 birds are killed by flying into windows every year.
"The cleanup cost was $2.1 billion, with a 50 percent reach," Pitzer told an audience at a June 25 session of the American Society of Safety Engineers' (ASSE) 2007 Professional Development Conference in Orlando, Fla. "That means that only 50 percent of Prince William Sound was cleaned."
Six years after the cleanup, a study was conducted to determine ecological recovery in the sound. What researchers found was that the areas that were not cleaned were in better shape – with more wildlife and cleaner water and soil – than the areas that had been cleaned. The chemicals and high-pressure washing used to "clean" the area had destroyed the ecosystem in some parts of Prince William Sound.
"The environmental disaster was the cleanup," said Pitzer.
Corn-based ethanol is another good example:
Cornell University professor of agriculture David Pimental calculates some very disturbing figures. According to Dr. Pimental, it takes more energy to produce a given amount of ethanol than there is energy available in that ethanol. According to his calculations, producing corn and processing it into 1 gallon of ethanol requires 131,000 BTUs of energy; but 1 gallon of ethanol contains only 77,000 BTUs. So producing ethanol actually creates a net energy loss. And since farmers are using fossil-fuel-powered equipment to plant, maintain and harvest the corn and are using fossil-fuel-powered machinery to process that corn into ethanol and then transport that ethanol to collection points (ethanol can't run in underground pipelines because it picks up damaging impurities), the ethanol industry is actually burning large amounts of gasoline to produce ethanol, and that ethanol contains far less energy than the gasoline they consumed to produce it.
But not all scientists agree with Pimental's analysis regarding energy efficiency. Dr. Michael Wang of the Argonne National Laboratory finds that it requires 0.74 million BTUs of fossil fuels to get 1 million BTUs of ethanol to market. That would mean a net gain in energy, not a net loss.
Energy efficiency aside, those in Pimento's camp actually don't see corn as a truly renewable energy source. Pimento estimates that powering a car for a single year using ethanol would require 11 acres of corn. Since corn fields in the United States take a while to replenish themselves due to both soil erosion and irrigation issues, those acres would be out of commission for a period of time, meaning no corn for ethanol and no usable land for other food crops. To sustain an ethanol-based fuel industry, more and more farm land would have to be set aside for corn alone. The ultimate result could be a shortage of domestically grown food and higher prices at the supermarket for all sorts of produce.
A great article on the Tradesports fee structure change
Jay Graziani:
Tradesports could have avoided this confusion quite easily by explaining their position more clearly well before the new fee structure took effect. This would have allowed those who wanted to hold onto their positions to know that they would not be charged higher fees than they expected going into the trade. It would also allow those who did not want to hold their contracts to completion to exit the market prior to the new fee structure. Ideally, Tradesports would have offered traders a few days grace period where they could close existing positions without incurring the new fees, or even offer to buy back or sell outstanding shares to traders at a preset baseline price, to allow them to exit the market.
While hardly a travesty, the transition could have been carried out better. Existing contracts have not lost any value, as long as the current holder holds them until the end. Yes, traders have lost the liquidity that exchange betting brings, but this is a minor glitch in a long-established operation. But to maintain the goodwill of their customers, Tradesports needs to avoid such glitches in the future.
For future rules changes, Tradesports should consider shutting down active markets permanently, with at least a few weeks advance notice. This would allow traders to decide whether they were willing to hold their positions until the end, or whether to get out before the new rule change. For instance, the existing World Series future market could have been closed to further trading as of June 27th. Anyone still holding shares as of a set date would be stuck with them for the duration, when they would be paid out under the old structure. A new World Series market could have been opened immediately, now trading under the new rules. This scenario allows all traders in a given market to participate under the same set of rules, and eliminates the ambiguity that caused trader confusion in the present case. Having both the new and old markets open simultaneously would allow further liquidity, as traders hedged their risk on long-term versus short-term holdings.
Greg Mankiw's Blog: The Big Test
I'm pretty cynical about schools, standardized tests, grades, and degrees. None of those things seem to signal very clearly if someone is competent, trustworthy, or potentially successful. So even though I scored over 99 percentile in my SAT & GMAT, graduated from an Ivy League school, and come from an immediate family of five where 60% earned PhDs (2 in hard sciences) and another 20% earned 2 Masters degrees--I just don't believe in it. I'm just an average dysfunctional guy from an average dysfunctional family.
I've seen jock and frat goofballs from state schools with tremendous analytical and leadership ability go really far in my 2 decades on Wall Street, much farther than I have. They know how to create value and jobs--so much more than the Ivy Leaguers who ended up working for them.
Via Greg Mankiw, Charles Murray now takes down one of the sacred cows of the academy; the SAT:
How are we to get rid of the SAT when it is such an established American institution and will be ferociously defended by the College Board and a large test-preparation industry?
Actually, it could happen quite easily. Admissions officers at elite schools are already familiar with the statistical story I have presented. They know that dropping the SAT would not hinder their selection decisions. Many of them continue to accept the SAT out of inertia—as long as the student has taken the test anyway, it costs nothing to add the scores to the student's folder.
In that context, the arguments for not accepting the SAT can easily find a receptive audience, especially since the SAT is already under such severe criticism for the wrong reasons. Nor is it necessary to convince everyone to take action at the same time. A few high-profile colleges could have a domino effect. Suppose, for example, that this fall Harvard and Stanford were jointly to announce that SAT scores will no longer be accepted. Instead, all applicants to Harvard and Stanford will be required to take four of the College Board's achievement tests, including a math test and excluding any test for a language used at home. If just those two schools took such a step, many other schools would follow suit immediately, and the rest within a few years.
It could happen, and it should happen. There is poignance in calling for an end to a test conceived for such a noble purpose. But the SAT score, intended as a signal flare for those on the bottom, has become a badge flaunted by those on top. We pay a steep educational and cultural price for a test that no one really needs.
The SAT is a lot like government economic statistics. Most of them can contain a lot of noise and error, and people who don't like what they are indicating tend to dismiss them out of hand when trying to make a case, with some convenient conspiracy theory sprinkled liberally with SAT vocabulary words.
But unless better measures become available, we should keep the ones we have for the moment. Murray's suggestion of 4 achievement tests, including a math test, could be more predictive of academic success. (But the language tests probably need to be excluded--who knows what some student's grandparent taught them while they were still in diapers?)
In a sense, degrees, schools, SAT scores ... are all (poor) predictors for a person's future success. The signal about one's ability the marketplace, in charity, and the in family (my preferred arenas of success measurement) has about a ~0.1 correlation.
My thoughts on the NCAA ruling on OU's 2005 season
Posted by bmili at 4:48 PM 0 comments
Fox Business News Channel Beginning Oct. 15th
Via Drudge
This isn't exactly new news but really makes sense with Murdoch trying to buy the WSJ. I like CNBC quite a bit but it never hurts to have a little competition. I have heard speculation that the Maria "Money Honey" Bartiromo could jump ship and would not be surprised to see Kudlow jump (though he seems to have a rather good setup at CNBC with "On the Money").
Interesting game theory on the Supreme Court
Linda Greenhouse, via Mike Rappaport:
It takes four votes to accept a case, and three members of the liberal bloc — Justices Stephen G. Breyer, David H. Souter and Ruth Bader Ginsburg — said at the time that they wanted to hear these cases. Notably absent from that group was Justice John Paul Stevens, who wrote the majority opinions for the court in 2004 and 2006 that upheld the detainees' claims to a modicum of judicial process.
Instead of giving his vote to the three, Justice Stevens joined Justice Kennedy in a one-paragraph statement "respecting the denial." It was "appropriate" to deny the appeals at this point, they said, because the detainees had not yet availed themselves of the appeal procedure provided by the Detainee Treatment Act of 2005. The court's door remained open for the future, they hinted.
Since Justice Stevens had the power at that moment to cast a fourth vote for immediate review, he clearly had something else in mind by joining Justice Kennedy instead. The most plausible explanation is that this canny tactician and strategist, who had managed to win Justice Kennedy's vote for his two earlier Guantánamo opinions, knew better than to risk losing that support by pushing his colleague too far, too fast. There was no point in granting a case to which Justice Kennedy was not yet ready to give favorable consideration.
So Justice Stevens waited, and events played into his hands. On June 22, days before the justices were to consider the "petition for rehearing" filed by the detainees' lawyers, those lawyers filed a final brief that included a remarkable document, a description of how the "combatant status review tribunals" worked written by an Army officer, Lt. Col. Stephen Abraham, who had been a member of one. The statement, the detainees' lawyers said in their brief, made it clear that the process was "an irremediable sham."
What the justices made of the document is, of course, not publicly known. What is known is that granting a petition for rehearing takes not four votes, but five. Justice Stevens's patience, it appears, was rewarded.
Another prediction market bites the dust
Betcha.com update at Midas Oracle.
This sucks.
What kind of American are you?
Apparently, I'm not dumb.
You Are a Smart American
You know a lot about US history, and you're opinions are probably well informed.
Congratulations on bucking stereotypes. Now go show some foreigners how smart Americans can be.
Are You a Dumb American?
Via Steve Bainbridge.
TS Fees changeover continues to generate heat
I haven't been posting much on this, but have been following it regularly over at Midas Oracle. The forum link is here.
My simple thoughts:
1) Any change in fee structure that affects the value of contract position is a terrible thing that will reduce market liquidity and/or drive away to competitors, due to the uncertainty that it represents. Liquidity is drawn to stability, and fleeing from instability.
2) The U.S. government does this all the time. Recently, the threat of legislative changes to energy "price gouging" and private equity tax treatment come to mind. And here is an oldie-but-goodie.
The problem for we traders and US-based taxpayers is, it is hard to trade up to another exchange or country. But it still sucks. For now.
Like I've been saying about global warming contracts
There's a lotta interest out there!
I started posting about this back in January.
Liquidity increases almost fivefold, in the last 4 years
... in the 2008 presidential candidate contracts, according to Eric Zitzewitz.
Sex is economics
So says the excellent Tim Harford.
Fuel efficiency demand increases
From Swivel
From Intrade
Gold vs. US Stocks
Eddy Elfenbein's nice chart of Gold vs. Wilshire Total Return. Surprising to me how correlated they are.
Income vs. Human Capital
Brink Lindsey in the WSJ, who counters the mainstream media and political candidates' pandering to the lower 3 quintiles of wage earners (I mean, why sell your product to the job creators, because they are a small voting minority):
Rising demand for analytical and interpersonal skills has been driving the change, and surely it is good news that economic signals now so strongly encourage the development of human talent. Yet -- and here is the cause for concern -- the supply of skilled people is responding sluggishly to the increased demand.
Something is plainly hindering the effectiveness of the market's carrots and sticks. And that something is culture.
Before explaining what I mean, let me go back to the squid ink and clarify what's not worrisome about the inequality statistics. For those who grind their ideological axes on these numbers, the increase in measured inequality since the 1970s is proof that the new, more competitive, more entrepreneurial economy of recent decades (which also happens to be less taxed and less unionized) has somehow failed to provide widespread prosperity. According to left-wing doom-and-gloomers, only an "oligarchy" at the very top is benefiting from the current system.
Hogwash. This argument can be disposed of with a simple thought experiment. First, picture the material standard of living you could have afforded back in 1979 with the median household income then of $16,461. Now picture the mix of goods and services you could buy in 2004 with the median income of $44,389. Which is the better deal? Only the most blinkered ideologue could fail to see the dramatic expansion of comforts, conveniences and opportunities that the contemporary family enjoys.
Much of the increase in measured inequality has nothing to do with the economic system at all. Rather, it is a product of demographic changes. Rising numbers of both single-parent households and affluent dual-earner couples have stretched the income distribution; so, too, has the big influx of low-skilled Hispanic immigrants. Meanwhile, in a 2006 paper published in the American Economic Review, economist Thomas Lemieux calculated that roughly three-quarters of the rise in wage inequality among workers with similar skills is due simply to the fact that the population is both older and better educated today than it was in the 1970s.
It is true that superstars in sports, entertainment and business now earn stratospheric incomes. But what is that to you and me? If the egalitarian left has been reduced to complaining that people in the 99th income percentile in a given year (and they're not the same people from year to year) are leaving behind those in the 90th percentile, it has truly arrived at the most farcical of intellectual dead ends.
Which brings us back to the real issue: the human capital gap, and the culture gap that impedes its closure. The most obvious and heartrending cultural deficits are those that produce and perpetuate the inner-city underclass. Consider this arresting fact: While the poverty rate nationwide is 13%, only 3% of adults with full-time, year-round jobs fall below the poverty line. Poverty in America today is thus largely about failing to get and hold a job, any job.
The problem is not lack of opportunity. If it were, the country wouldn't be a magnet for illegal immigrants. The problem is a lack of elementary self-discipline: failing to stay in school, failing to live within the law, failing to get and stay married to the mother or father of your children. The prevalence of all these pathologies reflects a dysfunctional culture that fails to invest in human capital.
Other, less acute deficits distinguish working-class culture from that of the middle and upper classes. According to sociologist Annette Lareau, working-class parents continue to follow the traditional, laissez-faire child-rearing philosophy that she calls "the accomplishment of natural growth." But at the upper end of the socioeconomic scale, parents now engage in what she refers to as "concerted cultivation" -- intensively overseeing kids' schoolwork and stuffing their after-school hours and weekends with organized enrichment activities.
This new kind of family life is often hectic and stressful, but it inculcates in children the intellectual, organizational and networking skills needed to thrive in today's knowledge-based economy. In other words, it makes unprecedented, heavy investments in developing children's human capital.
Alas, there is no silver bullet for closing the culture gap. But the public institutions most directly responsible for human capital formation are the nation's schools, and it seems beyond serious dispute that in many cases they are failing to discharge their responsibilities adequately. Those interested in reducing meaningful economic inequality would thus be well advised to focus on education reform. And forget about adding new layers of bureaucracy and top-down controls. Real improvements will come from challenging the moribund state-school monopoly with greater competition.
Milton Friedman's school vouchers, anyone?
Economist tongue-in-cheek ... on presidential candidates
From the Economist:
Democratic candidates are out-raising Republicans by a factor of three to two, which suggests that Democratic voters are more fired up than Republicans, at least for now. Mr Obama is generating the most heat. An actress recently starred in a saucy video called "I got a crush on Obama". (Sample lyrics: "You can Barack me tonight" and "Universal health-care reform, it makes me warm".) It is hard to envisage any other candidate inspiring anything similar. McCain me harder?
Meanwhile, Al Gore's daughter Kristin has just released a novel about life in the White House with a noble vice-president, a dissolute president and a ghastly first lady whose "paranoia was legendary". Where does she get her material?
Here is their chart of second quarter fund raising:
Josh Beckett prices risk close to fair value than Asante Samuel
Here's Rob Bradford on Beckett's contract extension:
After earning his 12th win of the season last night, Beckett offered some insight into why he took the Red Sox' three-year, $30 million extension.
Along with having the peace of mind that went with knowing he would be earning $47 million by the time he was 30, and playing in a place he was confident would continue to be a winning environment, there was the issue of an insurance policy.
After missing his final start of the 2005 season with shoulder stiffness, Beckett's insurance company informed him that it would insure every part of his body but his right shoulder. It was a problem that played a factor in approaching his future.
"I think if I had that insurance policy it would have been a little easier to go to (the Red Sox) with a hard number," said Beckett, whose shoulder still isn't insured but can be if he pitches approximately 600 innings (from the time he started with the Red Sox) without report of any shoulder ailment. "The way it happened was that we both sat down and hammered out something that made us both happy. I got that insurance with the contract."
At the time of the back-and-forth in St. Petersburg, Beckett was carrying a 4.59 ERA to go with 10 wins. By the time the deal was inked, his ERA had risen to 5.12.
"Given the circumstances, yeah," said Beckett when asked if he was surprised Francona approached him with the idea. "Their job is to try and save money by getting guys when they aren't on the pinnacle part of their performance. To me, it was all about getting that security and playing somewhere I wanted to play."
Contrast Beckett's wisdom--negotiating a win-win with his club--to Samuel's questionable testing of the market, as reported by John Tomase:
[Deion] Branch can't help but view from afar the deteriorating negotiations between his friend Samuel and the Patriots.
"We've spoken," Branch said yesterday from Seattle after spending the majority of his offseason in Boston. "Our situations are the same as far as holding out, but they're two different examples. I was due about $1 million. He's due $7.8 million. The most important thing I tell him is to do what's in his heart. If he feels holding out is the right thing, then that's what he should do."
While stressing he was merely speaking for himself, Branch admitted he'd have had a hard time leaving almost $8 million on the table.
"It would be different if you were in his shoes," Branch said. "If Zant goes out there, plays one down and gets hurt, he'll get that $7.79 million and then when his contract's up, what's going to happen? 'We don't want to sign you.' That would be the case throughout the league.
I've already debunked some other Branch mythology here, here and here.
Some bearish signals are near irrelevant
One is the price of gold--people need to dial back their charts to the time of Bretton Woods (which was disbanded during the Nixon administration). Another is bilateral trade deficits, as Greg Mankiw (and Robert Solow) eloquently tell us:
I'm still long US equities, and short the Intrade recession contracts. Both positions have continued to do well, the latter for the last several months and the former for the last couple of decades.
TS announces fee refunds
Just posted a few minutes ago on the forum:
Members who held positions in a Market when our new fee structure was introduced on July 27th, 2007, will have their expiry fees reviewed once the Market has been fully expired.
If the fee due under the new 4% commission fee structure exceeds the fee that would have been charged under the old system of trading and expiry fees then a refund of the difference will be provided.
This applies only to positions held at the time the new fee structure was introduced.
A refund will be provided only for fees levied on the expiry profit from a position. If you trade in and out of a position for a profit before expiry you will be charged the 4% commission on that profit and will not be eligible for a refund.
The fees will be reviewed once all contracts in the Market have been expired. For example, fees charged on positions for the winner of the Super Bowl will be reviewed once the final two contracts in this group have been expired after the Super Bowl has been played.
More Forshaw astuteness on candidates for 2008
Obama seems to be the front runner.
Historic presidential pardon data & Scooter Libby outlook
I'm selling some Al Gore for the first time
He's getting a lot of press for his enormous wealth, which will weaken his populist support. He's got some dirt on his hands with the Apple options backdating that he personally approved, which will alienate the same demographic who didn't own Enron but hated them, too. And now this:
LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - The 24-year-old son of former Vice President Al Gore was arrested for drug possession on Wednesday after he was stopped for speeding in his hybrid Toyota Prius, a sheriff's official said.
Al Gore III -- whose father is a leading advocate of policies to fight global warming -- was driving his environmentally friendly car at about 100 miles per hour on a freeway south of Los Angeles when he was pulled over by an Orange County sheriff's deputy at about 2:15 a.m.
The deputy smelled marijuana and searched the car, said sheriff's spokesman Jim Amormino. The search turned up a small amount of marijuana, along with prescription drugs including Valium, Xanax, Vicodin, Adderall and Soma. There were no prescriptions found, he said.
Gore was arrested on suspicion of drug possession and booked into the Inmate Reception Center in Santa Ana, about 34 miles south of Los Angeles, on $20,000 bail. Although he quickly identified himself as the son of the former vice president, Amormino said Gore received no special privileges.
The youngest child and only son of the former vice president, Gore has had previous brushes with the law. He was arrested in 2003 for marijuana possession and in 2002 for suspected drunken-driving.
President Reagan had some problems with his namesake, too. But I'm not sure Ron Jr. ever got busted like this.
Joyous Independence Day
Been swamped with work, family, ministry, neighborly stuff. Hope to get back up to speed soon.
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