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Grants Resources Information News
GRIN office now closed until Monday 10th January 2022
Dec 21 by GRIN
The GRIN office is now closed until Monday 10th January 2022 as we take our annual 3-week break over Xmas and the New Year.
Here's a short summary of the year from our perspective:
We started the year on Monday 11 January and, over the following 12 months up to today, have sent out 300 grant bulletins, providing details of between 600 and 700 grant programmes.
Each bulletin takes around 3 hours to research and write up, and we spend an additional hour – normally between 2am and 3am – preparing a news item for the GRIN website.
So, in total, that's around 1,200 hours we spend preparing the daily grant bulletins for circulation (by way of comparison, a 37 hour week consists of around 2,000 hours per year).
We know from the many emails we receive from subscribers that the bulletins have helped them secure often vital resources, which is ultimately the purpose of the service. We haven't added up how much grant funding the bulletins have helped subscribers procure during 2021, but we estimate it to be well over £1 million.
During 2021 we've also provided pro bono advice to over 100 organisations. Requests for advice have come from very local, South West England based organisations to agencies working as far afield as Australia, India and South Africa, and have covered a multitude of topics, from a regenerative food and farming project to grant opportunities for a mobile pregnancy advice service.
We've also regularly featured excellent blogs by Sarah Taragon and Stephen Woollett of Clarity CIC, and Emma Beeston of the Emma Beeston Consultancy, and we're looking forward to continuing these in 2022, alongside a new contributor (details to be revealed in early 2022!).
But most of all, we'd like to thank all of you for your continued support and the marvellous work you've been doing during an incredibly difficult time for UK and worldwide communities. The not-for-profit sector continues to amaze and inspire us with its resilience, creativity and compassion. We're going to need you in 2022, so please keep up the great work!
Dominie and Paul
GRIN SW LLP
"My wish for 2022: Philanthropy embraces common ground" by Emma Beeston
GRIN in 2022 – our plans and priorities for the year ahead
East African not-for-profit, the Tanzanian Clubfoot Care Organisation (TCCO) is seeking to develop partnerships with UK agencies Jan 18
Job Opportunity: new or experienced Fundraiser with energy and enthusiasm sought by the Moorland Mousie Trust (application deadline: Monday 7 February 2022) Jan 17
Round 3 of the Cultural Recovery Fund opens in Wales, with grants of up to £100,000 available (application deadline: Wednesday 26 January 2022) Jan 14
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Category Archives: Scott Kazmir
2010 – Top AL Pitchers
Just as a recap, here's what I am trying to do:
1) I start with the number of runs allowed by each pitcher, and the number of innings that guy pitched.
2) I modify the number of runs allowed to account for any bias based on the pitcher's home park.
3) I modify the number of runs allowed based on my defensive rating system for teams and players because if you have Seattle's team defense behind you, you are less likely to allow a run than if you had the Royals defense behind you.
Top 10 Starters:
Runs Inn Pitcher
34.1 173.2 Clay Buchholz (BOS)
29.7 249.2 Felix Hernandez (SEA)
26.5 208.0 Jon Lester (BOS)
26.2 237.2 C.C Sabathia (NYY)
25.8 200.2 Gio Gonzalez (OAK)
25.8 196.2 Trevor Cahill (OAK)
24.0 213.0 John Danks (CHI)
23.5 130.2 Brian Dunsing (MIN)
22.5 224.1 Jered Weaver (LAA)
19.4 191.2 Francisco Liriano (MIN)
I was surprised that Buchholz saved more runs, but he also had a remarkable ERA pitching in Fenway. Like #3 Jon Lester. Brian Duensing made 13 starts when Minnesota needed them, and his overall contributions were also impressive. Not sure if he has a 200 inning season in him, but at this rate, he would have led the league in runs saved. Among the returners from last year, Fernandez, Lester, and Sabathia…
Top 10 Relievers:
20.4 65.2 Joakim Soria (KC)
20.0 74.1 Daniel Bard (BOS)
17.6 60.1 Joaquin Benoit (TEX)
16.7 63.0 Chris Perez (CLE)
16.4 49.0 Andrew Bailey (OAK)
15.8 60.0 Mariano Rivera (NYY)
15.7 62.0 Darren O'Day (TEX)
14.6 41.2 Alexi Ogando (TEX)
14.3 60.2 Matt Thornton (CWS)
13.7 62.1 Rafael Soriano (TB)
Three Rangers in the top ten – which helps explain how they controlled the division if the offense could just get a lead through five or six innings. This is the second year I have made the list – and Bailey, Rivera, O'Day, and Thornton all returned to the list.
Bottom 10 Pitchers:
-56.5 203.1 James Shields (TB)
-56.3 109.1 Ryan Rowland-Smith (SEA)
-35.8 150.0 Scott Kazmir (LAA)
-32.0 171.0 Jeremy Bonderman (DET)
-28.5 141.1 Scott Feldman (TEX)
-24.9 186.2 A.J. Burnett (NYY)
-23.1 161.0 Brian Bannister (KC)
-20.9 127.2 Josh Beckett (BOS)
-19.7 79.2 David Huff (CLE)
-19.4 161.0 Nick Blackburn (MIN)
Shields cleared 50 because he pitched 200 innings, had a solid defense behind him, and kept serving up homers. The Rays stuck with him all season and will be giving him another shot in 2011. I don't think he'll be this bad… The worst pitcher, though, was Rowland-Smith. He pitched just 109 innings, so essentially he gave up a run more than the average pitcher every other inning. Ouch.
Posted in A. J. Burnett, Alexi Ogando, Andrew Bailey, Brian Bannister, Brian Duensing, Chris Perez, Clay Buchholz, Daniel Bard, Darren O'Day, David Huff, Felix Hernandez, Francisco Liriano, Gio Gonzalez, James Shields, Jered Weaver, Jeremy Bonderman, Joakim Soria, Joaquin Benoit, John Danks, Josh Beckett, Mariano Rivera, Matt Thornton, Nick Blackburn, Rafael Soriano, Ryan Rowland-Smith, Scott Feldman, Scott Kazmir, Trevor Cahill	| Leave a reply
2010 Season Forecast: Tampa Rays
2006: 61 – 101
Runs Scored: 803 (5th AL)
Runs Allowed: 754 (7th AL)
Optimism reigned supreme on the heels of an amazing run into to the World Series. I warned you, however, that while the team looked good there were reasons to suspect that the Rays might under-perform. The Rays were good, but couldn't catch any breaks on the road and, as such, couldn't keep up with the Yankees or Red Sox when the race got going.
The Rays were never really out of it despite a 9 – 14 April, and after a fantastic June (19 – 7) were in the thick of the race. Unfortunately, the Yankees blew the doors open in July and August while the Rays suddenly got flat. Scott Kazmir, unhealthy and unproductive was sent to Anaheim. Carlos Pena, leading the AL in homers at the time, broke his wrist. Troy Percival was injured and eventually hung up the spikes. When September came calling, the Rays were far enough out to throw in the towel – and they did, fading from 13 over .500 to just six over at the end.
In 2008, backed by a sure-handed and mobile defense, the pitching over delivered. In 2009, the defense slipped and a few holes were discovered in the rotation. Matt Garza became the ace and James Shields – usually dependable – gave up 239 hits in 220 innings, 29 of them homers. Scott Kazmir made just 20 starts and finished with an ERA just shy of 6.00… Andy Sonnestine, as warned, was eminently hittable, finishing with a 6.77 ERA and earning the Anti-Cy – the pitcher costing his team the most runs with his below average pitching.
Two good things came out of the experimenting required by Joe Maddon. Rookie David Price showed flashes, winning 10 games, and Jeff Niemann was even better, making 30 starts, winning 13 games, and showing good control and command.
In the bullpen, Troy Percival made just 14 appearances, eventually having to be replaced by J.P. Howell at the back end of the bullpen. However, Maddon used a committee as required, as Randy Choate (5), Grant Balfour (4), Joe Nelson (3), and four others wound up with saves.
Looking ahead, the Rays should have a decent enough rotation. Shields should bounce back some, Garza is back, Niemann returns, Price will get 30+ starts, and rookie Wade Davis should pick up 20 – 25 starts. If Davis is even 10 runs below average, he's saving the team 25 runs over last season. 15 more starts of David Price will be worth another 30 runs. I like the rotation to be at least 50 runs better than in 2009.
The bullpen adds closer Rafael Soriano from Atlanta and returns the core of what has been a very dependable bullpen – Howell, Choate, Balfour, and Dan Wheeler. I like the bullpen to be at least 15 runs better than in 2009 as well.
Dioner Navarro is back – hopefully lighter than last year, as his bat slipped mightily in 2009. He's essentially a league average backstop – right on the average against the run, has a decent reputation with handling the pitchers but isn't as mobile as you would like. Kelly Shoppach was signed from Cleveland to back up Navarro – and he is good enough to take up the slack if Navarro slips some more.
In 2008, the infield defense was a big reason that the Rays won the AL East. However, Carlos Pena showed signed that he might not be as mobile as he had been as a gold glove caliber first baseman. Additionally, his batting average fell to .227, though he did continue to get on base and knock out homers. Pena has had an up and down career and, nearing 32, his prime seasons are nearly over.
Akinori Iwamura went down to a horrible knee injury, but returns to play for Pittsburgh. The reason Iwamura was allowed to move was the remarkable season of Ben Zobrist, who fielded his position very well and broke out with 27 homers and a .407 OBP.
Jason Bartlett hit better than expected – finishing at .320 with a .490 slugging percentage – but ankle injuries affected his range and he went from someone worth of a gold glove to someone challenging Derek Jeter for the worst range at short. One hopes he finds his old mobility, but if he produces 103 runs of offense, nobody will notice.
Evan Longoria remains the best third baseman in baseball – he looks like the new Mike Schmidt. A 40 homer season wouldn't be out of the question, as he finished with 33 homers in 2009 and had 44 doubles, too.
Backing this unit up is Willie Aybar, who can play third and first and hit well enough. Reid Brignac is a prospect who appears to have hitting skills but hasn't shown range in the field.
Carl Crawford returns in left field, as good a fielder as there is out in left and a very productive hitter. Crawford is known for his 60 stolen bases, but he added 51 extra base hits while hitting .305.
B.J. Upton will be the wild card of 2010. Battling shoulder and leg injuries, Upton's range numbers in the outfield were problematic and he finished at .241 and didn't slug .400. For a while, Upton was at the top of the lineup and getting in the way. If he bounces back and shows the form he displayed in the 2008 World Series, the Rays will get 30 extra runs of offense and 20 extra runs of defense. If not, the Rays may not be able to compete.
Gabe Kapler and Gabe Gross shared right field (with Ben Zobrist, until he moved to second base). Both are acceptable in the field, but don't add much to the offense. Matt Joyce, formerly of Detroit, may get the nod in 2010. He's got young legs and potential at the plate – 30 homer power though he might not make it if he doesn't curb the strikeouts. Desmond Jennings, a prospect at Durham, might sneak in and take over as well.
Backing these guys up are Zobrist and Aybar, as well as DH (and disappointment) Pat Burrell. Burrell's 14 – 64 – .221 season meant that the Rays will give former Ranger Hank Blalock a shot at the DH role in 2010.
Looking at AAA Durham, you see people who have already gotten a shot… Justin Ruggiano has some power and speed but is a bit old as a prospect. Reid Brignac and Matt Joyce are already Rays. Among the pitchers, Wade Davis is going to make the roster after going 10 – 8 for the Bulls with a 3.40 ERA and a 140/60 K/BB ratio in 158.2 innings. Jeremy Hellickson will likely start at Durham in 2010, but was 6 – 1 in nine starts at the end of the season last year with 70 Ks in 57.1 innings. Hellickson is the ace in waiting for now.
Hellickson had 11 starts for AA Montgomery, winning three of four decisions with 62 Ks, 14 BBs, and only 41 hits allowed in 56.2 innings. Only reliever Paul Phillips looked ready for AAA. Aneury Rodriguez is young (22) and pitched okay for the Biscuits but could stand to improve his control. The best hitter in AA was Desmond Jennings, who finished at .316 with 37 steals (caught just five times), earning a nod to Durham where he hit .325 there with 15 more steals. Jennings could take over in centerfield if Upton gets hurt.
A+ Charlotte has a few pitchers to watch in AA next year to see if they can continue to command the strike zone in Jeremy Hall, Alexander Cobb, and Darin Downs. All three had good ERAs, good strikeout and walk numbers, and winning records.
Bowling Green (A) featured Matt Moore, a live-armed kid who fanned 176 but walked 70 in 123 innings. Josh Satow was the closer, getting 20 saves, strikeing out 65 and walking just 15 in 63 innings. Andy Finch and I saw Tim Beckham and Kyeong Kang when touring the midwest last summer. Beckham has the air of stardom and is still a teen. Kang looks to have a little power, hit .307 and had a .390 OBP.
The Rays have a young roster, and they have PROSPECTS.
I like the Rays to be very competitive. Unlike 2009, where I thought the team might take a step back from the World Series peak, I see reasons for optimism. I think the starters, absent Sonnestine and Kazmir's poor performances, will show improvement. I like B.J. Upton's chances of having a breakout season. And, I'm optimistic that the Rays can close games better than in 2009. Working against that is the fact that I think Zobrist may slip, Pena might age, and Bartlett may have peaked as a hitter.
I think the Rays will score a few more runs – maybe 810 – but allow a lot less, possibly as few as 680 runs. If so, the Rays will win 95 games. Working against this is the strength of the division, which includes what should be an improving Baltimore club. So, despite what the system tells me, my hunch is that they might fall a few wins short of 95, and it might mean barely missing the playoffs. Still, the system says 95 and that's what I am putting on my board.
Posted in Akinori Iwamura, Alexander Cobb, Andy Sonnestine, Aneury Rodriguez, B.J. Upton, Ben Zobrist, Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena, Dan Wheeler, Darin Downs, David Price, Desmond Jennings, Dioner Navarro, Evan Longoria, Gabe Gross, Gabe Kapler, Grant Balfour, Hank Blalock, J.P. Howell, James Shields, Jason Bartlett, Jeff Niemann, Jeremy Hall, Jeremy Hellickson, Joe Nelson, Josh Satow, Justin Ruggiano, Kelly Shoppach, Kyeong Kang, Matt Garza, Matt Joyce, Matt Moore, Pat Burrell, Paul Phillips, Rafael Soriano, Randy Choate, Reid Brignac, Scott Kazmir, Season Forecast, Tampa Bay Rays, Tim Beckham, Troy Percival, Wade Davis, Willy Aybar	| Leave a reply
Best and Worst Pitchers in the AL for 2009; And Other Notes…
Earlier this week, I posted my list of the top pitchers in the NL and explained my methods. Just as a recap, here's what I am trying to do:
3) I modify the number of runs allowed based on my defensive rating system for teams and players because if you have Seattle's team defense behind you, you are less likely to allow a run than if you had the Royals defense behind you. We'll get into this in more detail when we hand out defensive awards next week.
Then, I compare what an average pitcher would have done with what that pitcher did – and come up with a "runs saved" or "extra runs allowed" ranking. Nobody saved his team more runs than did Zack Greinke last year. Zack Greinke had a really low ERA over more than 220 innings despite pitching in a park that helps hitters a little bit and having a rather poor defense behind him. As such, his season is the best season I have tracked since I started doing this in 2005.
Top Pitchers (by Runs Saved)
65.61 – Zack Greinke (KC)
47.11 – Roy Halliday (TOR)
33.22 – Jon Lester (BOS)
32.14 – Felix Hernandez (SEA)
27.55 – Andrew Bailey (OAK)
26.51 – Cliff Lee (CLE)
25.74 – C.C. Sabathia (NYY)
25.73 – Justin Verlander (DET)
22.21 – Jonathan Papelbon (BOS)
21.30 – Mariano Rivera (NYY)
21.13 – Joe Nathan (MIN)
20.80 – Jered Weaver (LAA)
20.57 – Kevin Millwood (TEX)
20.09 – Josh Beckett (BOS)
21.61 – Jarrod Washburn (SEA) – but -13.29 in DET
In fact, it's not even close – Greinke had as good a season as we've seen by a pitcher in a long, long time. Imagine if he had done this for 40 starts instead of 33, with a team like Seattle. He MIGHT have had an ERA around 1.70 and a won-loss record of something like 27 – 4. From this, you can see that Halliday instead of Cliff Lee will be a slight step up for Philadelphia and would have been a more serious contender for the Cy Young Award (in my book) had not Greinke been more dominating.
Another thing of interest – four relievers were good enough to sneak onto the list of pitcher saving his team more than 20 runs, led by Andrew Bailey. Let's use that to show the list of the top relievers in the AL last year.
Top Relievers
18.41 – Matt Guerrier (MIN)
18.09 – Darren O'Day (TEX)
17.04 – Matt Thornton (CHW)
17.04 – Michael Wuertz (OAK)
16.79 – Darren Oliver (LAA)
16.41 – Jose Mijares (MIN)
16.16 – Brandon Lyon (DET)
15.87 – Joakim Soria (KC)
A couple of things – usually the top guys are middle relievers or set up men with great ERAs in 70 innings. There are a couple here – Thorton, Wuertz, and Oliver for example. Still – the top four guys were KILLER closers in 2009.
Worst Pitchers
-37.04 – Andy Sonnestine (TB)
-33.26 – Fausto Carmona (CLE)
-24.16 – Chien-Ming Wang (NYY)
-22.81 – Jason Berken (BAL)
-21.45 – Derek Holland (TEX)
-20.71 – Luke Hochevar (KC)
-21.02 – Chris Jakubauskas (SEA)
-20.38 – Jose Contreras (CHW)
-19.59 – Armando Galarraga (DET)
-19.17 – Rich Hill (BAL)
-18.36 – Garrett Olson (SEA)
-23.47 – Scott Kazmir (TB) – but positive 11.34 in LAA
If you had Andy Sonnestine on your fantasy team last year, you didn't read my Tampa Rays Team Profile that pointed out that many of the Rays pitchers weren't as good as you thought because the team defense in 2008 was amazingly good. In 2009, Bartlett was hurt, and Upton struggled, and Aki Iwamura went down, and Carlos Pena looked a little older (and then left to an injury). Sonnestine may throw strikes, but they sure do get hit a lot.
Hopefully, Fausto Carmona and Chien-Ming Wang can figure things out. Two years ago, these guys won nearly 40 games combined – and now they are #2 and #3 on the wrong list.
And, if you are scrolling down to the NL List, note that the list contained a bunch of Brewer and Padre pitchers. In the AL, only Seattle doubled up by having two guys get pounded around – bad pitching was more evenly distributed…
Posted in Akinori Iwamura, Andrew Bailey, Andy Sonnestine, Baltimore Orioles, Boston Red Sox, Brandon Lyon, Chicago White Sox, Chien-Ming Wang, Chris Jakubauskas, Cleveland Indians, Darren O'Day, Darren Oliver, Derek Holland, Detroit Tigers, Fausto Carmona, Felix Hernandez, Garrett Olson, Jarrod Washburn, Jason Berken, Jered Weaver, Joe Nathan, Jon Lester, Jonathon Papelbon, Jose Contreras, Jose Mijares, Josh Beckett, Justin Verlander, Kansas City Royals, Kevin Millwood, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, Luke Hochevar, Mariano Rivera, Matt Guerrier, Matt Thornton, Michael Wuertz, Minnesota Twins, New York Yankees, Oakland A's, Rich Hill, Roy Halliday, Scott Kazmir, Seattle Mariners, Tampa Bay Rays, Texas Rangers, Toronto Blue Jays, Uncategorized, Zack Greinke	| Leave a reply
Yankees – Phillies on Wednesday as Angels Collapse…
Posted on October 26, 2009 by Paul Proia
It was over within minutes of the first gaffe, a baserunning blunder by Vlad Guerrero where he got caught off of first base on a shallow fly to right field. Suddenly, Joe Saunders couldn't get the same strike calls as Andy Pettitte – who really was great, by the way – and a few walks led to a Johnny Damon liner that put the Yankees ahead for good. However, I still thought the Angels had a chance with Mariano Rivera out there for a six out save. Los Angeles extended Mariano in the eighth inning and got a run to cut the lead to 3 – 2. If the Angels and Scott Kazmir could have gotten a very quick 1-2-3 inning in the bottom of the eighth, I would have bet on the Angels to force a game seven. Instead, two errors on consecutive bunts finished off whatever life was in the Angels. Rivera, now rested, easily dispatched three batters in the ninth and the Yankees are heading to the World Series.
Tomorrow or Wednesday, we'll take a few minutes to break it down – but long and short, the two best teams in each league are meeting to decide it all. And that's cool. To make the Indians feel worse, it'll be Cliff Lee against C.C. Sabathia in the opener on Wednesday night…
Mike Scioscia was generally complimentary of the Yankees, but he did bag MLB for catering to Fox TV wishes and adding a number of off days between the end of the season and the playoffs, between each round of the playoffs, and even adding off days within the playoffs. He's right, you know. The Yankees and Angels, after playing 162 games in 180 days during the regular season, only played eight games in the last 20. Suddenly the fall classic is forced into playing World Series games in November. [ESPN]
Steve Phillips didn't survive his latest sex scandal and now will have to hope for a book deal after he completes a recovery program at a treatment facility for an undisclosed problem. ESPN fired the Baseball Tonight analyst because his reputation was "irreparably damaged." [ESPN]
Tim Hudson and the Atlanta Braves are discussing a three-year deal that would replace his one-year $12 million option for 2010. Hudson looked good following Tommy John surgery and is potentially a free agent. [ESPN]
Two very patient hitters of the 70s and 80s celebrate today – Toby Harrah (1948) ad Mike Hargrove (1949). Others celebrating include: Frank Selee (1859), William (Kid) Gleason (1866), Lee Tannehill (1880), Harry Camnitz (1884), Snuffy Stirnweis (1918), Elio Chacon (1936), Steve Rogers (1949), Wayne Garland (1950), Mark Sweeney (1969), and Francisco Liriano (1983)
Posted in Andy Pettitte, Atlanta Braves, C.C. Sabathia, Cleveland Indians, Cliff Lee, Francisco Liriano, Joe Saunders, Johnny Damon, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, Mariano Rivera, New York Yankees, Philadelphia Phillies, Scott Kazmir, Tim Hudson, Vladimir Guerrero	| Leave a reply
While the Rangers Fall, Two Races Just Got Interesting…
Wow – the wrong end of four shutouts in five games… The Rangers are done – picking the worst possible time for a batting slump never seen in Arlington before. Last night, Scott Kazmir and the Angels did the trick, winning 2 – 0. Texas needed a sweep this weekend, but now are 7-1/2 games out with two weeks to play. Those kinds of miracles just don't happen all the time. [SI]
And, a nasty hamstring injury isn't allowing Michael Young to play – and Young's bat is really needed… Young says he's day-to-day, but that's not going to be enough. [ESPN]
Meanwhile, a late rally by the Diamondbacks continued to close the gap in the NL Wildcard race. The Rockies lost, while both the Giants and Marlins (Go Fish!) pulled off late rallies to win. The Rockies lead the Giants by 2-1/2, and the Marlins lurk four games back. I love the Marlins, but it's hard enough to catch one team, much less two. The Marlins were two arms shy in this race, but have done a nice job. [MLB]
And, the Twins aren't giving up. Last night, the Twins handled Detroit, 3 – 0, beating Rick Porcello no less to close the gap in the AL Central to just three games. If there is any race that is truly in play here, it's this one. The two teams face each other six more times… [MLB]
By the way, Brian Duensing has looked solid since being inserted into the Minnesota rotation in late August. In three of his last four starts, Duensing hasn't allowed an earned run.
Andy Pettitte can't wait for Monday's start to see if his tired shoulder is ready for a post-season run; and Tim Wakefield's legs are coming around and he could also be ready to help in the post-season. [ESPN]
A third arm readying for the post-season is Clayton Kershaw. The Dodger starter is recovering from a separated (non-throwing) shoulder, and yesterday he pitched well in a bullpen session. Kershaw says he felt normal out there, so we might see him in a week or so. [MLB]
Cubs starter Rich Harden may miss a start or two – and didn't learn it from his manager. Harden learned it talking to a Chicago Tribune reporter… I'm thinking that Lou Piniella's reign won't survive Memorial Day unless his team gets off to a 40 – 20 start. There are just too many hints that his personality issues are starting to get in the way of his managing skills and he's wearing out his welcome. [SI]
Cy-Young candidate Zack Greinke got drilled by a comeback liner in his last start against Detroit, and now may get a couple of extra days before his next start. Miguel Cabrera's liner caught Greinke in the upper part of his throwing arm… [MLB]
Kansas Jayhawk Alum and former Bill James intern Rob Neyer, as good a blogger as there is for ESPN, contends that Greinke should be more than a candidate for the Cy, but should be considered for the MVP award, too. [ESPN]
Baltimore rookie outfielder Nolan Reimhold's season is over. Reimhold has fraying in his left Achilles tendon… He's been dealing with pain for weeks now, but this week it turned for the worse, so the Orioles are shutting him down in favor of healing and resting for 2010. Reimhold (15 – 45 – .279, leads rookies in slugging and OBA) is a candidate for the Rookie of the Year award…
Another guy getting shut down? Yovani Gallardo, the ace of Milwaukee. (Bummer – this is killing my fantasy team in the playoffs, no less!!!) Gallardo will get one more start (making 30) for his first full professional season, and needs just a few strikeouts to make 200 on the season. [SI]
Hurry Back! Royals outfielder Jose Guillen (Former outfielder?) heads to the DL with a hamstring injury. Oakland pitcher Vin Mazzaro heads to the DL with shoulder tendinitis. Washington catcher Jesus Flores's season comes to an end with a torn labrum. Orioles pitcher Kam Mickolio has inflammation in his throwing shoulder and heads to the DL.
Welcome Back! Mike Adams returns to San Diego.
Woohoo! The Royals signed Aaron Crow, their first round pick out of Mizzou…
Afterthoughts… Senior citizens who once were waiters at old Yankee Stadium were not retained in the new Yankee Stadium – which looks like age discrimination, hence a lawsuit (according to the NY Post). The Post says that waiters were paid $28,000 a year for 80 working days – which is a pretty good salary, don't you think? Anyway – the waiters claim that the team wanted younger, cheaper staffers. [FanNation]
Another story that caught my attention… Read this article. How can the Orioles lose touch with Brooks Robinson?
Posted in Aaron Crow, Andy Pettitte, Arizona Diamondbacks, Baltimore Orioles, Brian Duensing, Chicago Cubs, Clayton Kershaw, Colorado Rockies, Detroit Tigers, Florida Marlins, Jesus Flores, Jose Guillen, Kam Mickolio, Kansas City Royals, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, Los Angeles Dodgers, Michael Young, Miguel Cabrera, Mike Adams, Milwaukee Brewers, New York Yankees, Nolan Reimhold, Oakland A's, Rich Harden, Rick Porcello, San Diego Padres, San Francisco Giants, Scott Kazmir, Texas Rangers, Tim Wakefield, Vincent Mazzaro, Washington Nationals, Yovani Gallardo, Zack Greinke	| 3 Replies
Playing Good News/Bad News With Baseball Headlines…
Good News/Bad News: Jake Peavy will have to wait before he makes his Chicago White Sox debut – but the good news is that the elbow has a bruise and some swelling. When it goes away, he'll be fine. [ESPN]
Good News/Bad News: Met starters Oliver Perez (knee) and Johan Santana (elbow) had surgery to clean up debris in joints – but the good news is that both should be ready by spring training. [ESPN]
Good News/Good News: David Wright is back after his beaning and subsequent concussion – and he's trying out a new helmet, too. Wright got a hit last night… [ESPN]
Good News/Good News: Trever Miller and Ryan Franklin got contract extensions from the Cardinals. Did any of us think that either player would be impact pitchers for St. Louis? [SI]
Good News – for Tampa, anyway… The player to be named later in the Scott Kazmir deal is infielder Sean Rodriguez. Rodruiguez is a shortstop with some pop in his bat and a hole in his swing, whose stats make me think of a poor man's Dan Uggla. Still a kid at 24, he's been in the Angels chain for 7 seasons, so it's hard to see him as a prospect, but you never know. [SI]
Bad News – For Seattle and Ken Griffey… Griffey's surgically repaired left knee is bothering him, and an MRI is in his future. [SI]
Speaking of bad knees (and bad news), FoxSports Jon Paul Morosi reports that Jarrod Washburn's lack of success in Detroit is tied to a sore knee as well, though it's his right knee this time. [FoxSports]
Good News – for Seattle – Adrian Beltre is back after missing 15 days for a, um, groin injury (he took a grounder where it hurts). [FoxSports]
Bad News for Florida – and it's not just that outfielder Jeremy Hermida REFUSES to swing at a first pitch (or even second pitch) fastball strike. It's HARD to hit when you are constantly behind in the count and NOBODY gets behind faster than Hermida who is more than willing to watch two strikes before swinging. FRUSTRATING!!! I digress. Hanley Ramirez left last night's rain delayed game with a sore hamstring. [MLB]
Bad News in Texas – third baseman Michael Young, who is having a remarkable season at third base, strained his hamstring in yesterday's doubleheader and could miss two weeks. [MLB]
Welcome Back! Just about anybody who could come off the DL on September 1st did. And, the list of players activated for the last month of the season is about 100 names long – so I won't list them here. However, one transaction didn't match the others… Arizona claimed Kevin Mulvey off of waivers from Minnesota.
Posted in Adrian Beltre, Arizona Diamondbacks, Chicago White Sox, David Wright, Detroit Tigers, Florida Marlins, Hanley Ramirez, Jake Peavy, Jeremy Hermida, Johan Santana, Ken Griffey, Kevin Mulvey, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, Michael Young, Minnesota Twins, New York Mets, Oliver Perez, Ryan Franklin, Scott Kazmir, Sean Rodriguez, Seattle Mariners, St. Louis Cardinals, Tampa Bay Rays, Texas Rangers, Trever Miller	| 1 Reply

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


Don't replace it, we can raise!
David, a Piney Flats homeowner, called Master Concrete Services because he was fed up with how his garage floor had been gradually settling. The front of his garage became a safety concern and lacked stability, causing David to be worried about having his son anywhere within the vicinity of the garage. Sales representative, Jonathan Wiesehuegel, conducted a free inspection and estimate to get the project started and notify David regarding the required course of action.
Led by foreman Paul Walinski, Master Concrete team members injected a polyurethane solution into the concrete slab to fully level the surface. Polyurethane injections are clean, aesthetically pleasing, and easy solutions to concrete stability issues that allow you to continue about your day without interruption. Initially, project team members drilled a small hole in a strategic location in the concrete floor and then injected a solution that causes a chemical reaction to occur, which produces a strong, stable polyurethane foam. The foam hardens in minutes, allowing the concrete slab to transform into its full capacity form and hold heavy loads almost immediately.
Not only was David pleased with the efficiency of the job, but also how the project did not inconvenience him in any way. He could now rest assured that his basement was a safe area for his son to use and play on. Are you concerned about the safety of your un-level concrete slabs? No need to worry, give Master Concrete Services a call and let us conduct a free inspection and estimate!


But sometimes, their focus causes them to keep their heads to the grindstone to meet the community needs and rarely have the opportunity to spend time and resources on improving their operations, learning new strategies, keeping up with technology and so much more!
These are not challenges for every small nonprofit, but even a couple of them create some form of stress on the people wanting to DO GOOD for their community.
We are here to help! Help us empower them to DO GOOD in our communities!
Are you still holding your nonprofit conference this year? This prices on here are outrageous, and I'd much rather attend yours.


Our most trusted sound and music partner TRO asked us to create their new website and we responded with a visually loud design.
The new TRO website launches with a freshly cut and prominent showreeal and subsequently spotlights TRO's five core services: TRO Originals, TRO Tracks, TRO Sonic DNA, TRO Go Live and TRO Audio Services. The cases are generously displayed and underlayed with further information.


text:
Nine Inch Nails proved the new songs rivaled the old at Riot Fest (review, pics)
NIN at Riot Fest 2017 (photo by James Richards IV)
My first taste of the 2017 Nine Inch Nails was their show at NYC's Webster Hall in July. At that show, the massively popular band proved they were still naturals in a small club environment, but it couldn't have prepared you for how much more powerful they'd be headlining a festival. Trent Reznor & co capped off day one of Chicago's Riot Fest on Friday (9/15), and from the first few notes of opener "Branches/Bones" it was clear that this was a different beast than the one that played Webster Hall a month and a half ago. At least the first 500 feet of the crowd became one massive mosh pit -- more people than the NYC club show even held -- which must have added to how fired up the band was. The guys looked and sounded massive up there. They were intimidating, larger-than-life rock stars without an ounce of bombast.
Among the next few songs were classics "Wish" and "March of the Pigs," which saw the crowd getting even more nuts, but it's worth noting that the mosh-inducing opener "Branches/Bones" is a new song (off Not The Actual Events from their ongoing EP trilogy). As far as massive rock festival headliners go in 2017, Nine Inch Nails' closest competitors are probably Tool and Radiohead. Unlike Radiohead, Nine Inch Nails' new music isn't expected to rival their classic material, and unlike Tool, NIN actually have new music. So it's kind of impressive that this band, who could get away with relying solely on nostalgia, are still getting thousands upon thousands of people going wild with new material.
The new songs hit so hard because they embrace the unique thrill of The Downward Spiral and also fit perfectly within the context of 2017 music. The '90s are back in a huge way -- one of the biggest albums of the year is Kendrick Lamar's 1995-sounding DAMN. and that's just the tip of the iceberg -- and industrial in particular has been interacting with trendy modern music. Former Crystal Castles singer Alice Glass is touring with past Trent Reznor collaborator Marilyn Manson. Ministry, who played before NIN at Riot Fest and who Trent shouted out as an influence, are about to hit the road with Death Grips. Grimes, who lists "March of the Pigs" and "Closer" among her favorite songs of all time, got pretty damn industrial on recent single "SCREAM." The list goes on. And NIN's new songs don't just work because they sound like the '90s; Trent Reznor has figured out how to modernize his sound just like the artists he influenced have. The "I wanna fuck you like an animal" refrain of "Closer" can sound a little goofy in 2017 (though that song did sound awesome at Riot Fest), but nothing about recent single "Less Than" is goofy. That one didn't induce moshing at Riot Fest the way "Branches/Bones" did, but there were plenty of people yelling along to its addictive hook.
The success of Nine Inch Nails' set on Friday was also probably aided by Riot Fest's perfectly-curated Riot and Roots Stages. They're right next to each other, so you hardly have to move from one to watch a band on the other, and it allows for just a few minutes of turnover time between bands. Right in between Ministry and Nine Inch Nails was New Order, and I would be willing to bet that plenty of people got a spot for Ministry and just never moved until NIN were done. Ministry's metallic industrial and New Order's synthpop can both clearly be heard in NIN's sound, and, in what was a rare moment of speaking to the crowd, Trent expressed how honored he was to play with them. He then used that moment to transition into talking about another artist who influenced him, his late friend, collaborator and tourmate David Bowie, and went into his cover of "I Can't Give Everything Away" off Bowie's final album. Of all the Bowie tributes that I've seen since his death, this one was especially moving.
After that, the band treated the crowd to the live debut of Add Violence's dark, intense closer "The Background World," followed by some cuts from their 2000s era, another new one ("Burning Bright [Field on Fire]"), and then finally the pre-encore set closed with fan favorite "Head Like A Hole." For all the talk of how vital Nine Inch Nails' new music is, it's also an impressive feat that "Head Like A Hole" still has a massive impact nearly 30 years later.
They could've ended the show right there (like they did at Webster Hall), but no complaints that they came back for an encore of two The Fragile songs and "Hurt." Sometimes at these big festivals you wanna leave a little early to beat the crowd, but NIN's encore made fighting through a sea of people to the exit worth it.
Pictures of NIN at Riot Fest are in the gallery above. Check out their setlist, a video of the live debut of "The Background World," and a few more videos, below. More Riot Fest Friday pics and recaps HERE and HERE. Riot Fest continued Saturday (9/16) with At the Drive In, Queens of the Stone Age, and more; pics and recaps HERE. The fest continues Sunday (9/17).
Nine Inch Nails at Riot Fest 2017 Setlist (via)
Branches/Bones
March of the Pigs
Something I Can Never Have
The Frail
(with "The Only Time" interpolation)
Copy of A
Gave Up
I Can't Give Everything Away (David Bowie cover)
The Background World (live debut)
Burning Bright (Field on Fire)
Head Like a Hole
Somewhat Damaged
The Day the World Went Away
Filed Under: Ministry, New Order, Nine Inch Nails, Riot Fest, Trent Reznor
Categories: Heavy Metal News, Music News, Photo Galleries


Recently uncovered evidence strongly suggests that the deaths of 33,000 salmon and steelhead trout during last September's fall run within 20 miles of the mouth of the Klamath River in northern California was not due simply to a lack of sufficient water, as claimed by a California state agency and environmentalists, but may have been caused by contamination from illicit drug manufacturing operations near rivers in the area.
A second overlooked factor appears to have been the temperature of the Klamath River, which was too warm for salmon. This, in turn, was caused by an unpublicized diversion of water from the much colder Trinity River that flows north to meet the Klamath at the small town of Weitchpec on state highway 96.
In a report in Monday's Siskiyou Daily News, Barry Clausen, an investigator and author, challenged the official view and urged that toxicity and diversion of water from the Trinity be seriously investigated as likely contributory factors to the mysterious die-off.
According to the Humboldt County Sheriff's Department and Larry Hand of the California Conservation Corps, a CCC crew last summer discovered several large glass flasks used for cooking methamphetamine on Ohpah Creek, a tributary of the Klamath River, just 21 miles from the mouth of the river. The flasks had been left on land owned by the Simpson Timber Company above the Ohpah Creek Ranch and were part of a "meth dump" -- a place where unused residue and cooking utensils from meth labs are discarded.
"Could the illegal marijuana and meth producers dumping chemicals, poisons and waste above the fish kill into creeks, watersheds and river be accountable for the dead fish or at least have magnified the impact of the gill rot?" Clausen asks.
His question calls into dispute the official position of the California Department of Fish and Game detailed in a 63-page study released in early January. As WorldNetDaily reported, the department concluded that "too many migrating fish crowded into a depleted river, allowing the spread of two naturally occurring parasites that destroy the gills of fish. The salmon and steelhead subsequently died of asphyxiation."
The DFG report -- which is a preliminary analysis -- in effect casts the blame for the fish kill on the Bush administration's decision to release "too much water for farmers" during the spring without leaving "enough flow for the fish."
The study also warned that unless the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation increases flows from the Klamath Lake in coming years, "there is a substantial risk for future fish kills on the Klamath River." The bureau is the federal agency responsible for overseeing water diversions from the Klamath.
According to the DFG report, department biologists -- after eliminating various factors that could have killed the fish, including drought, a late summer heat wave and a possible spill of toxics into the river -- found the only difference in the Klamath River in the fall of 2002 compared to other dry years was that the number of salmon returning from their annual spawning run was high and the amount of water in the river was low.
They determined that "no substances were found at concentrations toxic to fish and therefore were not a factor in the 2002 fish kill."
Clausen quotes the report: "Soon after the fish kill manifested itself, claims were made that toxic substances may have been the cause. The North Coast Regional Water Quality Control Board Staff collected samples from five locations on Sept. 26, 2002, to determine if any toxic substances were present at concentrations toxic to fish. These scans test for a broad spectrum of organic compounds including organochlorine pesticides, PCBs, and Glyphosate."
The date of the testing poses serious problems for defenders of the DFG report.
"The samples were taken seven days after the discovery of the dead fish," Clausen points out. "The question arises -- would concentrations of chemicals still be present in the alleged test areas after this length of time?"
This also was an issue that struck David Vogel, a biologist who worked for 14 years with fishery research divisions with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service before starting his own environmental consulting firm, Natural Resources Scientists, in 1990.
"They [Fish and Game] state that the fish kill began Sept. 19, and yet they say that no [water] analysis was done of any potential toxic substances until Sept. 26 -- seven days later," exclaimed Vogel when interviewed by WorldNetDaily. "So they conclude that toxic substances could not have caused the fish kill, when in reality there's no way in the world you could make that conclusion when the samples were taken a full week later after the fish kill was underway. I was astounded at that."
According to Clausen, who based his conclusions on interviews with numerous law-enforcement officials, toxic substances could have been introduced either from meth production or marijuana growing, the latter being a prominent "cottage industry" in the area. Marijuana growing in itself does not produce pollutants, but does pose a hazard to fish as growers use "rat poison, insecticides and pesticides to kill unwanted animals that penetrate their operations," and these work their way into the groundwater and, ultimately, the river.
But the major suspect for toxicity would be the production of methamphetamine, which uses a variety of chemicals obtained from various sources (such as car batteries) and varying degrees of toxicity.
A few of these, listed by Clausen, include toluene, ether, drain cleaner (sulphuric acid), car batteries (lithium), Red Devil lye (sodium hydroxide), hydrochloric acid, white gas, laundry soap and diesel fuel.
"The chemicals are then cooked in such items as Pyrex dishes or large glass flasks like the ones found on Ohpah Creek," he explains. "Coffee filters are then used to filter the items cooked."
Clausen reports that law-enforcement officials he spoke with emphasized that "the chemicals end up in creeks and watersheds," and ultimately in rivers such as the Klamath.
Several members of the DFG told him they were familiar with the chemicals listed and their potential for harm: "Of course they could kill fish. The fish have gill rot, but there is the possibility they may have survived. If there was any of these chemicals in the river at any level, it would have stressed the fish and yes, it could have been a factor in the kill."
Two persons Clausen interviewed claimed there are five meth labs between Weitchpec and the mouth of the Klamath, one being known to both law enforcement and local residents as the "Crystal Palace." When asked, one Siskiyou County law-enforcement official told him, "It the truth were known, there are probably 50 labs."
The other factor Clausen checked was the temperature of the Klamath River, which Vogel has insisted was too warm for salmon migrating upstream.
As Vogel explained to WorldNetDaily, "Notably absent from the [Fish and Game] report is an analysis of the water temperatures that were present in the Upper Klamath River downstream of Irongate Dam during the time of the fish kill."
He added that the information and relevant data was available, which he had studied, and it was clearly apparent that water temperatures in the main stem of the Upper Klamath were within "lethal range" for salmon.
"They were too high," he emphasized. "So Fish and Game attempts to build an argument for increased flow below Irongate Dam during early September. But the problem with that is that even if the flow had been increased, the water temperatures were unsuitably warm for salmon in the upper river. In other words there was no place for the fish to go."
Added Vogel, "It doesn't take much increase in water temperature to have catastrophic effects on fish. Just a couple of degrees plus or minus can make it or break it for fish."
Warm water temperatures can also foster an increase in the number of death-causing parasites. "A major contributing factor in the fish kill would be the warmer temperature of the water, which Fish and Game did not take into account," said Vogel.
The question, then, is what caused this higher temperature? Basically, there was not enough cold water flowing into the Klamath to cool it off. Cold water would normally flow from the Trinity River, which is 15 degrees cooler than the Klamath. But Clausen discovered that as much as 90 percent of the Trinity's water is being diverted to the Sacramento River.
"This water would usually flow [north] into the Klamath at Weitchpec, but instead is being diverted and utilized in the Central Basin of California," he writes.
The diversion is a major concern to the Hoopa Tribe of Indians, through whose reservation the Trinity flows. Government officials had assured tribal members that the amount of water released from the Trinity Reservoir to the Sacramento would be only 50 percent.
Instead, the amount water being released from the Trinity Reservoir at the time of the fish kill was 73 percent, according to Tom Patton, a hydraulic engineer for the Bureau of Reclamation.
Many of the local Hoopa blame the die-off on this overlooked diversion of the Trinity to the Sacramento River, rather than on the diversion of the Klamath to farms of Klamath basin upstream.
Duane Sherman, who has served on the tribal council, monitors Native American fishing rights, the Trinity River diversion, water levels, water temperature and the fish kill.
"The Trinity is 15 degrees colder than the Klamath, and if the Trinity had been flowing as we were promised, the fish would not have died," Sherman told Clausen.
Asked if he blamed the upstream farmers and ranchers, he said, "No, but something different needs to be done -- and soon."


The smallest of all US states the State of Rhode Island and Providence Plantations, its official name, is the longest of any state. With just over a million inhabitants, Rhode Island is not the smallest state by population, but because of its small geographic nature it is the 3rd densest state in the union. Unfortunately, it is also in the top 10 states for uninsured drivers at 8th and is also eighth most expensive for car insurance as well.
A standard no fault or traditional tort auto insurance system is followed in the state and drivers are required to have insurance if driving in the state. The state even requires Uninsured Insurance coverage to be offered on every policy in the state and drivers can only opt out if they do so in writing to decline the coverage. If you are wondering why premiums are higher in the "Ocean State" all you need to do is look at the cost of auto repair in the state. For some reason it has grown by more than 15% more than neighboring states and is driving up claim costs, which in turn drive up premiums.
As congestion can also add to accident rates which also increase premiums the area around Boston, including Rhode Island is the 6th most congested in the nation. The next time you wonder why premiums are higher in Rhode Island than all neighboring states, these are just the largest indicators.
The state does require all drivers to carry liability insurance coverage in 25/50/25 setup. This means, $25,000, $50,000, and $25,000 for injury of one person, injury of multiple persons and property damage respectively. In this fault system you have multiple options for setting accidents depending on their severity including private negotiation, third party claims, and civil lawsuits to recover expenses.
Have you ever considered getting full coverage insurance? Well although there is technically no such thing as 100% coverage, you can get a number of auto insurances that add a ton of extra coverage. The two most popular include collision and comprehensive which protect your property damage in an accident and from theft, vandalism and extreme weather in the latter coverage. However you can also opt for medical payments insurance, Gap coverage, rental car reimbursement, and towing and labor coverages as well. By getting these coverages you can often avoid financial ruin from an accident.
The Rhode Island Automobile Insurance Plan ensures that all drivers including high risk drivers have access to insurance. If you have been declined by an insurer for a regular policy you can opt to be covered under the RIAIP plan. Although this should be your last resort, as it is much more expensive than normal coverages.
The State of Rhode Island requires you to show proof of insurance for routine traffic stops, at all accidents and during registration and licensing in the state. Your insurance card or a photocopy of a current and valid policy is all the proof you will be required to show. The state also conducts random verification requests, which must be satisfied within 20 days or face similar penalties of not having insurance. A monetary fine and license revocation of 3 months to 1 year are assessed based on your number of offenses.


Hi All, I was wondering how can I divide a long midi note into quarters or sixteenth notes at once. Also, if I have recorded drums as midi and I want the snare to sound as a roll or I want very fast toms... what's a good way to do it? Any suggestions? I'd appreciate it. Thanks!
Hi All, I've just finished recording a voice track. I used a pop filter but there are still some noticeable plosives or pops in the recording, and I was wondering if there's any way to improve these and make them sound a little softer. Any suggestion would be appreciated. Thanks!


text:
CCGs begin the search for an independent chair
The Governing Bodies of NHS Calderdale CCG and NHS Greater Huddersfield CCG met in parallel, in public on 20 October 2016 and agreed to proceed to explore implementation of the full business case, in line with the proposals within the consultation on proposed future arrangements for hospital and community health services in Calderdale and Greater Huddersfield.
Since then the CCGs and Calderdale and Huddersfield NHS Foundation Trust have begun the process of preparing a full business case and associated documentation, developing the detail and exploring how we implement the proposed changes.
As part of the consultation we asked people to give us their views on travel, transport and parking and committed to establishing a Travel & Transport Group. Our analysis identified Travel and Transport as one of the key areas highlighted by the public.
We're honouring our commitment to set up a Travel & Transport Group and have now begun the search for an independent chair who will lead the work of the group over an initial six month period.
GP Chair of NHS Calderdale Clinical Commissioning Group, Dr Alan Brook said:
"The group will advise, inform and provide expert input on transport and access matters relating to our proposed future arrangements for hospital and community health services and will include representatives from the public, Healthwatch, West Yorkshire Combined Authority, both local authorities and the NHS"
GP Chair of NHS Greater Huddersfield Clinical Commissioning Group, Dr Steve Ollerton said:
"Once the independent chair has been appointed, the new Travel and Transport Group will be tasked with identifying priority areas for consideration such as access, travel, parking and public transport. The group will then develop recommendations and plans to address any challenges."
For full details and to apply please review the downloads below. The deadline for applications is 26th March 2017.
Role of Chair


text:
Q: Are there any functional disadvantages to disabling day/night cycle? I don't think it matters, but for reference I am playing the PS4 edition.
I am considering disabling the day/night cycle mode. If I do this will it have any negative effects on my game play.
As an example of the opposite, if I could somehow disable day mode so it was always night, then I would expect that the solar plant would never product electricity.
Is there anything like that for the opposite? i.e. won't do anything during the day.
Basically, I am looking for any reasons that might justify keeping the day/night cycle mode switched on.
EDIT: I am not asking about the effects on budget settings, so it is not a duplicate of this.

A: Having now played with the day/night cycle switched off for a good while, I can say that there appears to be no functional disadvantages in terms of game play. The solar power plants continue to constantly provide electricity for example.
However, it is worth mentioning that there is one trophy that requires you to spend 1001 nights in the city. It is unclear from my research if this requires the day/night cycle to be enabled though.
Note, at the time of writing this there was no DLC available. I cannot say if future DLC will add in game features that require the day/night cycle to work correctly.

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Incorrigibles is part of the exhibition Visions of Confinement (June 29 – September 10, 2016) co-curated by Isaac Scott & Arden Sherman. "Incorrigibles: An Archaeology of Reform, Oppression, and Defiance at a Girls' Training School", is a presentation by and conversation with Incorrigibles' public historian, Kathleen Hulser. The presentation spans the time period of 1887 to 1939— and looks at the New York House of Refuge and New York State Training School for Girls. The event was part of the public programming taking place during the course of this exhibition.


Of the "serious" pome fruit producers, South Africa, together with Brazil, have the production areas closest to the equator. This means higher summer temperatures and generally just altogether more plant stress and more fruit downgraded for processing compared to our major competitors. The great inefficiency of caring for fruit that ultimately ends up in a juice bin would have seriously endangered deciduous fruit production in South Africa if not for the (for now) favourable exchange rate. It shouldn't be surprising that research under this theme is predominantly aimed at decreasing sunburn and internal fruit quality defects brought about by photothermal stress.


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Come and make your very own, fresh bespoke Christmas Wreath with Bloomologie at the Intercontinental London - The O2 hotel in Greenwich for an exclusive festive morning, with bucks fizz and brunch, in the luxurious surroundings of the Meridian Lounge.
With the fabulous backdrop the five-star hotel's Meridian Lounge it will be a creative, stylish morning, full of the scent and spirit of Christmas, all washed down with gourmet brunch canapés and bucks fizz - it's a brilliant way to get into the festive atmosphere AND you get to take home your own gorgeous wreath, that will look stunning on your front door, or even above the fireplace, or on your Christmas table as a centrepiece. Why not come with friends and make a party out of it?


text:
Алфёрово — деревня в Гусь-Хрустальном районе Владимирской области России.

География
Деревня находится в 36 км к юго-востоку от районного центра города Гусь-Хрустальный.

История
До секуляризационной реформы 1764 года, деревня Алферово принадлежала Богородице-Рождественскому монастырю во Владимире. До 1764 года крестьяне деревни Алферово считались монастырскими, а после секуляризации считались экономическими и обладали полной личной свободой.

В конце XIX — начале XX века деревня входила в состав Заколпской волости Меленковского уезда, с 1926 года — в составе Гусевского уезда. В 1859 году в деревне числилось 52 дворов, в 1905 году — 87 дворов, в 1926 году — 103 дворов.

С 1929 года деревня являлась центром Алферьевского сельсовета Гусь-Хрустального района, с 1935 года — в составе Ильинского сельсовета Курловского района, с 1963 года — в составе Гусь-Хрустального района, с 2005 года — в составе муниципального образования «Посёлок Добрятино».

Население

Примечания

Населённые пункты Гусь-Хрустального района

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text:
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WEAK SUBORDINATION OF MULTIVARIATE LÉVY PROCESSES
MSC 2010: Stochastic processes
MSC 2010: Parametric inference
MSC 2010: Applications
MSC 2010: Markov processes
MSC 2010: Distribution theory - Probability
KEVIN W. LU
Journal: Bulletin of the Australian Mathematical Society , First View
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 09 July 2019, pp. 1-2
ON VARIABILITY OF SERIES AND PARALLEL SYSTEMS WITH HETEROGENEOUS COMPONENTS
MSC 2010: Operations research and management science
MSC 2010: Special processes
Yiying Zhang, Weiyong Ding, Peng Zhao
Journal: Probability in the Engineering and Informational Sciences , First View
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 03 July 2019, pp. 1-20
This paper studies the variability of both series and parallel systems comprised of heterogeneous (and dependent) components. Sufficient conditions are established for the star and dispersive orderings between the lifetimes of parallel [series] systems consisting of dependent components having multiple-outlier proportional hazard rates and Archimedean [Archimedean survival] copulas. We also prove that, without any restriction on the scale parameters, the lifetime of a parallel or series system with independent heterogeneous scaled components is larger than that with independent homogeneous scaled components in the sense of the convex transform order. These results generalize some corresponding ones in the literature to the case of dependent scenarios or general settings of components lifetime distributions.
Asymptotic expansions and saddlepoint approximations using the analytic continuation of moment generating functions
MSC 2010: Approximations and expansions
Ronald W. Butler
Journal: Journal of Applied Probability / Volume 56 / Issue 1 / March 2019
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 12 July 2019, pp. 307-338
Print publication: March 2019
Transform inversions, in which density and survival functions are computed from their associated moment generating function $\mathcal{M}$ , have largely been based on methods which use values of $\mathcal{M}$ in its convergence region. Prominent among such methods are saddlepoint approximations and Fourier-series inversion methods, including the fast Fourier transform. In this paper we propose inversion methods which make use of values for $\mathcal{M}$ which lie outside of its convergence region and in its analytic continuation. We focus on the simplest and perhaps richest setting for applications in which $\mathcal{M}$ is either a meromorphic function in its analytic continuation, so that all of its singularities are poles, or else the singularities are isolated essential. Asymptotic expansions of finite- and infinite-orders are developed for density and survival functions using the poles of $\mathcal{M}$ in its analytic continuation. For finite-order expansions, the expansion error is a contour integral in the analytic continuation, which we approximate using the saddlepoint method based on following the path of steepest descent. Such saddlepoint error approximations accurately determine expansion errors and, thus, provide the means for determining the order of the expansion needed to achieve some preset accuracy. They also provide an additive correction term which increases accuracy of the expansion. Further accuracy is achieved by computing the expansion errors numerically using a contour path which ultimately tracks the steepest descent direction. Important applications include Wilks' likelihood ratio test in MANOVA, compound distributions, and the Sparre Andersen and Cramér–Lundberg ruin models.
Preservation of the mean residual life order for coherent and mixed systems
MSC 2010: Survival analysis and censored data
Bo H. Lindqvist, Francisco J. Samaniego, Nana Wang
The signature of a coherent system has been studied extensively in the recent literature. Signatures are particularly useful in the comparison of coherent or mixed systems under a variety of stochastic orderings. Also, certain signature-based closure and preservation theorems have been established. For example, it is now well known that certain stochastic orderings are preserved from signatures to system lifetimes when components have independent and identical distributions. This applies to the likelihood ratio order, the hazard rate order, and the stochastic order. The point of departure of the present paper is the question of whether or not a similar preservation result will hold for the mean residual life order. A counterexample is provided which shows that the answer is negative. Classes of distributions for the component lifetimes for which the latter implication holds are then derived. Connections to the theory of order statistics are also considered.
Uniform decomposition of probability measures: quantization, clustering and rate of convergence
MSC 2010: Distribution theory
MSC 2010: Probability theory on algebraic and topological structures
MSC 2010: Limit theorems
Julien Chevallier
Journal: Journal of Applied Probability / Volume 55 / Issue 4 / December 2018
The study of finite approximations of probability measures has a long history. In Xu and Berger (2017), the authors focused on constrained finite approximations and, in particular, uniform ones in dimension d=1. In the present paper we give an elementary construction of a uniform decomposition of probability measures in dimension d≥1. We then use this decomposition to obtain upper bounds on the rate of convergence of the optimal uniform approximation error. These bounds appear to be the generalization of the ones obtained by Xu and Berger (2017) and to be sharp for generic probability measures.
On optimal operational sequence of components in a warm standby system
Maxim Finkelstein, Nil Kamal Hazra, Ji Hwan Cha
We consider an open problem of obtaining the optimal operational sequence for the 1-out-of-n system with warm standby. Using the virtual age concept and the cumulative exposure model, we show that the components should be activated in accordance with the increasing sequence of their lifetimes. Lifetimes of the components and the system are compared with respect to the stochastic precedence order and its generalization. Only specific cases of this optimal problem were considered in the literature previously.
Effective procedure of verifying stochastic ordering of system lifetimes
MSC 2010: Nonparametric inference
Tomasz Rychlik, Jorge Navarro, Rafael Rubio
The Samaniego signature is a relevant tool for studying the performance of a system whose component lifetimes are exchangeable. It is well known that the stochastic ordering of the signatures of two systems implies the same for the respective system lifetimes. We prove that the reverse claim is not true when the component lifetimes are independent and identically distributed. There exist small proportions of systems with stochastically ordered lifetimes whose signatures are not ordered. We present a simple procedure in order to check whether the system lifetimes are stochastically ordered even if their signatures are not comparable.
On perpetuities with light tails
MSC 2010: Stochastic analysis
Bartosz Kołodziejek
Journal: Advances in Applied Probability / Volume 50 / Issue 4 / December 2018
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 29 November 2018, pp. 1119-1154
In this paper we consider the asymptotics of logarithmic tails of a perpetuity R=D∑j=1∞Qj∏k=1j-1Mk, where (Mn,Qn)n=1∞ are independent and identically distributed copies of (M,Q), for the case when ℙ(M∈[0,1))=1 and Q has all exponential moments. If M and Q are independent, under regular variation assumptions, we find the precise asymptotics of -logℙ(R>x) as x→∞. Moreover, we deal with the case of dependent M and Q, and give asymptotic bounds for -logℙ(R>x). It turns out that the dependence structure between M and Q has a significant impact on the asymptotic rate of logarithmic tails of R. Such a phenomenon is not observed in the case of heavy-tailed perpetuities.
PROPERTIES FOR GENERALIZED CUMULATIVE PAST MEASURES OF INFORMATION
MSC 2010: Communication, information
Camilla Calì, Maria Longobardi, Jorge Navarro
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 29 October 2018, pp. 1-20
The Shannon entropy based on the probability density function is a key information measure with applications in different areas. Some alternative information measures have been proposed in the literature. Two relevant ones are the cumulative residual entropy (based on the survival function) and the cumulative past entropy (based on the distribution function). Recently, some extensions of these measures have been proposed. Here, we obtain some properties for the generalized cumulative past entropy. In particular, we prove that it determines the underlying distribution. We also study this measure in coherent systems and a closely related generalized past cumulative Kerridge inaccuracy measure.
SOME NEW BOUNDS AND APPROXIMATIONS ON TAIL PROBABILITIES OF THE POISSON AND OTHER DISCRETE DISTRIBUTIONS
Steven G. From, Andrew W. Swift
In this paper, we discuss new bounds and approximations for tail probabilities of certain discrete distributions. Several different methods are used to obtain bounds and/or approximations. Excellent upper and lower bounds are obtained for the Poisson distribution. Excellent approximations (and not bounds necessarily) are also obtained for other discrete distributions. Numerical comparisons made to previously proposed methods demonstrate that the new bounds and/or approximations compare very favorably. Some conjectures are made.
Equivariant thinning over a free group
MSC 2010: Ergodic theory
TERRY SOO, AMANDA WILKENS
Journal: Ergodic Theory and Dynamical Systems , First View
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 25 September 2018, pp. 1-11
We construct entropy increasing monotone factors in the context of a Bernoulli shift over the free group of rank at least two.
Relaxation of monotone coupling conditions: Poisson approximation and beyond
Fraser Daly, Oliver Johnson
Journal: Journal of Applied Probability / Volume 55 / Issue 3 / September 2018
It is well known that assumptions of monotonicity in size-bias couplings may be used to prove simple, yet powerful, Poisson approximation results. Here we show how these assumptions may be relaxed, establishing explicit Poisson approximation bounds (depending on the first two moments only) for random variables which satisfy an approximate version of these monotonicity conditions. These are shown to be effective for models where an underlying random variable of interest is contaminated with noise. We also state explicit Poisson approximation bounds for sums of associated or negatively associated random variables. Applications are given to epidemic models, extremes, and random sampling. Finally, we also show how similar techniques may be used to relax the assumptions needed in a Poincaré inequality and in a normal approximation result.
Kesten's bound for subexponential densities on the real line and its multi-dimensional analogues
MSC 2010: Qualitative behavior
Dmitri Finkelshtein, Pasha Tkachov
Journal: Advances in Applied Probability / Volume 50 / Issue 2 / June 2018
Print publication: June 2018
We study the tail asymptotic of subexponential probability densities on the real line. Namely, we show that the n-fold convolution of a subexponential probability density on the real line is asymptotically equivalent to this density multiplied by n. We prove Kesten's bound, which gives a uniform in n estimate of the n-fold convolution by the tail of the density. We also introduce a class of regular subexponential functions and use it to find an analogue of Kesten's bound for functions on ℝd. The results are applied to the study of the fundamental solution to a nonlocal heat equation.
Hazard rate ordering of the largest order statistics from geometric random variables
Bara Kim, Jeongsim Kim
Journal: Journal of Applied Probability / Volume 55 / Issue 2 / June 2018
Mao and Hu (2010) left an open problem about the hazard rate order between the largest order statistics from two samples of n geometric random variables. Du et al. (2012) solved this open problem when n = 2, and Wang (2015) solved for 2 ≤ n ≤ 9. In this paper we completely solve this problem for any value of n.
On perpetuities with gamma-like tails
Dariusz Buraczewski, Piotr Dyszewski, Alexander Iksanov, Alexander Marynych
An infinite convergent sum of independent and identically distributed random variables discounted by a multiplicative random walk is called perpetuity, because of a possible actuarial application. We provide three disjoint groups of sufficient conditions which ensure that the right tail of a perpetuity ℙ{X > x} is asymptotic to axce-bx as x → ∞ for some a, b > 0, and c ∈ ℝ. Our results complement those of Denisov and Zwart (2007). As an auxiliary tool we provide criteria for the finiteness of the one-sided exponential moments of perpetuities. We give several examples in which the distributions of perpetuities are explicitly identified.
On unimodality of the lifetime distribution of coherent systems with failure-dependent component lifetimes
M. Bieniek, M. Burkschat
We study the conditions for unimodality of the lifetime distribution of a coherent system when the ordered component lifetimes in the system are described by generalized order statistics. Results for systems with independent and identically distributed lifetimes of components are included in this setting. The findings are illustrated with some examples for different types of systems. In particular, coherent systems with strictly bimodal density functions are presented in the case of independent standard uniform distributed lifetimes of components. Furthermore, we use the results to derive a sharp upper bound on the expected system lifetime in terms of the mean and the standard deviation of the underlying distribution.
Stochastic comparisons of coherent systems under different random environments
Ebrahim Amini-Seresht, Yiying Zhang, Narayanaswamy Balakrishnan
For many practical situations in reliability engineering, components in the system are usually dependent since they generally work in a collaborative environment. In this paper we build sufficient conditions for comparing two coherent systems under different random environments in the sense of the usual stochastic, hazard rate, reversed hazard rate, and likelihood ratio orders. Applications and numerical examples are provided to illustrate all the theoretical results established here.
On the significands of uniform random variables
MSC 2010: Arithmetic, number theory
Arno Berger, Isaac Twelves
For all α > 0 and real random variables X, we establish sharp bounds for the smallest and the largest deviation of αX from the logarithmic distribution also known as Benford's law. In the case of uniform X, the value of the smallest possible deviation is determined explicitly. Our elementary calculation puts into perspective the recurring claims that a random variable conforms to Benford's law, at least approximately, whenever it has large spread.
On stochastic comparisons of k-out-of-n systems with Weibull components
Narayanaswamy Balakrishnan, Ghobad Barmalzan, Abedin Haidari
In this paper we prove that a parallel system consisting of Weibull components with different scale parameters ages faster than a parallel system comprising Weibull components with equal scale parameters in the convex transform order when the lifetimes of components of both systems have different shape parameters satisfying some restriction. Moreover, while comparing these two systems, we show that the dispersive and the usual stochastic orders, and the right-spread order and the increasing convex order are equivalent. Further, some of the known results in the literature concerning comparisons of k-out-of-n systems in the exponential model are extended to the Weibull model. We also provide solutions to two open problems mentioned by Balakrishnan and Zhao (2013) and Zhao et al. (2016).
On multivariate records from random vectors with independent components
MSC 2010: Multivariate analysis
M. Falk, A. Khorrami Chokami, S. A. Padoan
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 28 March 2018, pp. 43-53
Let X1, X2, . . . be independent copies of a random vector X with values in ℝd and a continuous distribution function. The random vector Xn is a complete record, if each of its components is a record. As we require X to have independent components, crucial results for univariate records clearly carry over. But there are substantial differences as well. While there are infinitely many records in the d = 1 case, they occur only finitely many times in the series if d ≥ 2. Consequently, there is a terminal complete record with probability 1. We compute the distribution of the random total number of complete records and investigate the distribution of the terminal record. For complete records, the sequence of waiting times forms a Markov chain, but unlike the univariate case now the state at ∞ is an absorbing element of the state space.


Smart speakers aren't really anything new, they have been around for a few years already. But in 2017, the smart speaker market basically exploded. With both Google and Amazon allowing third-party companies to make speaker using their respective voice assistants. So there's plenty to choose from now. And Amazon unveiled a slew of new Echo devices in the past couple of months, including the Echo Plus, which is now heralded as the best smart speaker with Amazon's Alexa inside. The Echo Plus looks like the true successor to the original Echo, even though it actually isn't - there is an Echo 2nd Generation that is much cheaper than the original.
The biggest feature of the Echo Plus, that puts it in a field of its own, is the built-in hub. That may not seem like a big deal, but this is a huge deal for those looking to get into the smart home world of things. Some products, like the Philips Hue bulbs and lighting fixtures, need their own hub to work together and connect to Internet. While many newer systems have WiFi built into each individual bulb. So if you picked up the Philips Hue Bloom, you'd need to spend another $70 or more on the Philips Hue Bridge. With the Echo Plus, the Hue Bridge is not needed, as the Echo Plus acts as the Hue Bridge and connects all of your Hue lights together. This also works with ZigBee, unfortunately there's no Z-wave support on this one. With the hub being built-in, Alexa is also able to mostly setup your different smart home products, by itself. Making it a much easier process.
Echo Plus still has 360-degree audio like the original Echo and even the second generation Echo. But the difference here is that the speaker is now tuned by Dolby, which is going to deliver crisp vocals and extended bass, that will fill the room with sound. Music streaming isn't the main feature of the Echo Plus, but it is a big feature of it. With the Echo Plus, users are able to stream music over WiFi, from various services including Amazon Music Unlimited, Google Play Music, TuneIn Radio, Spotify, iHeart Radio and many more. If you happen to use a service that is not supported, you can still connect to the Echo Plus over Bluetooth and stream away. With the Echo Plus, you can simply tell Alexa to start playing your playlist from your preferred music provider, without even touching your Echo Plus or your smartphone. Alexa is built-in here, which brings you a slew of different skills for taking advantage of the Echo Plus. Currently there are over 10,000 Alexa skills, with plenty more being added everyday. These range from simple tasks like reading the top news headlines to you, to ordering food from your favorite restaurant, and even starting your car - if you have a car that supports Alexa - and much more.
The Amazon Echo Plus, while being the most expensive Echo without a touchscreen, is one of the best out there. Not only does it provide some great audio from its 360-degree speaker, but it also has that built-in hub, making it much easier to setup a smart home. It'll make a great gift this holiday season.


text:
THE VILLAGE ANTIQUE CENTER
by anne pyburn craig
Hyde Park is genuinely old-school Hudson Valley, so rich in long-established assets and attractions that it has no need to brag or gentrify. It was home to Franklin and Eleanor Roosevelt, a stomping grounds for Frederick William Vanderbilt, and is currently home to the Culinary Institute and its array of restaurants. And, as locals have known for generations, one of Hyde Park's other main attractions is next-level thrifting, and the The Village Antique Center on Route 9 is one of its crowning glories.
"Oh, goodness, you want me to talk about myself," says Rose Gaches. "Here, talk to 'Mary.'" (Name changed by request.) "She'll answer your questions." Mary takes the phone. Rose and Mary are both originally from the Bronx "when it was countrified, which only people who lived there would understand," Mary says. "Fifty years ago.
We came up here and watched this change too, from cornfields on both sides of the highway to IBM bedrooms and beyond." Rose has been an avid antiquer since 1971; she and Mary have been friends since even before Rose founded The Village Antique Center 30 years ago. For 14 years, Mary had her own shop; nowadays, she comes in to hang out and help her friend. Antiquing, says Mary, is something that a person grows into.
"It happened by accident. She became a collector, early on. She started collecting and collecting, and then you have so much stuff that, you know, you sell, you upgrade, you study and learn a little more, and go a little higher-end, a little rarer. "Some of us started early, ahead of the times. And Rose had the gift. She was always really into it. Like a superstar compared to us." ("I AM NOT!" yells Rose firmly in the background,
The Center includes roughly 20 independent dealers, curated but not micromanaged, with a wide variety of tastes, specialties, and price ranges.
"Oh, she's not. Yes you are," says Mary.) Rose's denial notwithstanding, it is a matter of record that when The New York Times wrote about antiquing along the Hudson in 2008, the story was illustrated with a photo of a marble statue at her Village Antique Center.
Reporter Anita Gates wrote: "small, rambling rooms were crammed with merchandise from various dealers at various price levels.
There was a spectacular selection of chandeliers ($265 and up, way up), a carousel horse on a rocking-horse base ($4,500), a gorgeous writing box with mother-of-pearl detailing ($1,100), a lovely inlaid walnut Art Deco secretary-armoire ($850) and a pretty collection of jewelry."
"Rose has a very good idea about things," says Mary. "She does have a lot of unique items. There are people who live up this way who've been dealing with her forever, and she develops a high level of insight into their decorating and collecting needs."
People like coming here because we have so much fun.
There's a lot more to a pleasurable antiquing experience than simply buying something old. "We treat the customers like family," says Mary, "whether it's a collector we've been working with for years or a random newcomer. People like coming here because we have so much fun; we have people from other states—both dealers and vacationers—who stop in every year when they're in the area. There's a special camaraderie to the fascination with quality old things. A lot of the regulars get a hug when they show up and again when they leave. We like people. They share things with us, and it makes a richer experience."
The Center includes roughly 20 independent dealers, curated but not micromanaged, with a wide variety of tastes, specialties, and price ranges. "Everybody comes in," says Mary, "second homeowners from the city, wealthy estate owners, those who don't have much at all … and they all get the same warm welcome. We've helped some people furnish their entire homes. We have a ten-year-old girl who rides her bike here. I heard her telling someone 'They love me here.' Yes, we do.
"We were lucky. We grew up in great times. In the 80s, a bunch of us were all learning the business together—what a great time that was! Rose just always dealt with the most interesting and biggest pieces. Besides running the Center, she teaches antiques. There are always amazing pieces here—you should come on in and see."
Village Antique Center
Route 9, Hyde Park
MOOSE CROSSING
INN AT KETTLEBORO
CS COACH HOUSE
ZEPHYR FLOAT
Profile: Robin Kirk
Herzog's
VISIT HIGH FALLS


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redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaGithub


text:
3 miejscowości w Polsce:
 Bartoszewice – wieś w woj. kujawsko-pomorskim, w pow. wąbrzeskim, w gminie Płużnica
 Bartoszewice – wieś w woj. wielkopolskim, w powiecie rawickim, w gminie Jutrosin
 Bartoszewice – przysiółek w woj. wielkopolskim, w powiecie kolskim, w gminie Chodów, część wsi Elizanów


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