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text:
from __future__ import print_function

from datetime import datetime

import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
from pandas import to_datetime

def group_survival_table_from_events(groups, durations, censorship, min_observations, limit=-1):
    """
    Joins multiple event series together into dataframes. A generalization of
    `survival_table_from_events` to data with groups. Previously called `group_event_series` pre 0.2.3.

    Parameters:
        groups: a (n,) numpy array of individuals' group ids.
        durations: a (n,) numpy array of durations of each individual
        censorship: a (n,) numpy array of censorship, 1 if observed, 0 else.
        censorship: a (n,) numpy array of times individual entered study. This is most applicable in
                    cases where there is left-truncation, i.e. a individual might enter the
                    study late. If not the case, normally set to all zeros.

    Output:
        - np.array of unique groups
        - dataframe of removal count data at event_times for each group, column names are 'removed:<group name>'
        - dataframe of observed count data at event_times for each group, column names are 'observed:<group name>'
        - dataframe of censored count data at event_times for each group, column names are 'censored:<group name>'

    Example:
        #input
        group_survival_table_from_events(waltonG, waltonT, np.ones_like(waltonT)) #data available in test_suite.py

        #output
        [
            array(['control', 'miR-137'], dtype=object),

                      removed:control  removed:miR-137
            event_at
            6                       0                1
            7                       2                0
            9                       0                3
            13                      0                3
            15                      0                2
            ,
                      observed:control  observed:miR-137
            event_at
            6                        0                 1
            7                        2                 0
            9                        0                 3
            13                       0                 3
            15                       0                 2
            ,
                      censored:control  censored:miR-137
            event_at
            6                        0                 0
            7                        0                 0
            9                        0                 0
            ,
        ]

    """
    unique_groups = np.unique(groups)

    # set first group
    g = unique_groups[0]
    ix = groups == g
    T = durations[ix]
    C = censorship[ix]
    B = min_observations[ix]

    g_name = str(g)
    data = survival_table_from_events(T, C, B,
                columns=['removed:' + g_name, "observed:" + g_name, 'censored:' + g_name, 'entrance' + g_name])
    for g in unique_groups[1:]:
        ix = groups == g
        T = durations[ix]
        C = censorship[ix]
        B = min_observations[ix]
        g_name = str(g)
        data = data.join(survival_table_from_events(T, C, B,
                    columns=['removed:' + g_name, "observed:" + g_name, 'censored:' + g_name, 'entrance' + g_name]),
                    how='outer')
    data = data.fillna(0)
    # hmmm pandasits too bad I can't do data.ix[:limit] and leave out the if.
    if int(limit) != -1:
        data = data.ix[:limit]
    return unique_groups, data.filter(like='removed:'), data.filter(like='observed:'), data.filter(like='censored:')

def survival_table_from_events(durations, censorship, min_observations,
                              columns=["removed", "observed", "censored", 'entrance'], weights=None):
    """
    Parameters:
        durations: (n,1) array of event times (durations individual was observed for)
        censorship: (n,1) boolean array, 1 if observed event, 0 is censored event.
        min_observations: used for left truncation data. Sometimes subjects will show
          up late in the study. min_observations is a (n,1) array of positive numbers representing
          when the subject was first observed. A subject's life is then [min observation + duration observed]
        columns: a 3-length array to call the, in order, removed individuals, observed deaths
          and censorships.

    Returns:
        Pandas DataFrame with index as the unique times in event_times. The columns named
        'removed' refers to the number of individuals who were removed from the population
        by the end of the period. The column 'observed' refers to the number of removed
        individuals who were observed to have died (i.e. not censored.) The column
        'censored' is defined as 'removed' - 'observed' (the number of individuals who
         left the population due to censorship)

    Example:
        #input
        survival_table_from_events( waltonT, np.ones_like(waltonT)) #available in test suite

        #output

                  removed  observed  censored
        event_at
        6               1         1         0
        7               2         2         0
        9               3         3         0
        13              3         3         0
        15              2         2         0

    """
    #deal with deaths and censorships

    durations = np.asarray(durations) + min_observations
    df = pd.DataFrame(durations.astype(float), columns=["event_at"])
    df[columns[0]] = 1 if weights is None else weights
    df[columns[1]] = censorship
    death_table = df.groupby("event_at").sum()
    death_table[columns[2]] = (death_table[columns[0]] - death_table[columns[1]]).astype(int)

    #deal with late births
    births = pd.DataFrame( min_observations, columns=['event_at'])
    births[columns[3]] = 1
    births_table = births.groupby('event_at').sum()

    #this next line can be optimized for when min_observerations is all zeros.
    event_table = death_table.join(births_table, how='outer', sort=True).fillna(0) #http://wesmckinney.com/blog/?p=414

    return event_table

def survival_events_from_table(event_table, observed_deaths_col="observed", censored_col="censored"):
    """
    This is the inverse of the function ``survival_table_from_events``.

    Parameters
        event_table: a pandas DataFrame with index as the durations (!!) and columns "observed" and "censored", referring to
           the number of individuals that died and were censored at time t.

    Returns
        T: a np.array of durations of observation -- one element for each individual in the population.
        C: a np.array of censorships -- one element for each individual in the population. 1 if observed, 0 else.

    Ex: The survival table, as a pandas DataFrame:

                      observed  censored
        index
        1                1         0
        2                0         1
        3                1         0
        4                1         1
        5                0         1

    would return
        T = np.array([ 1.,  2.,  3.,  4.,  4.,  5.]),
        C = np.array([ 1.,  0.,  1.,  1.,  0.,  0.])

    """
    columns = [observed_deaths_col, censored_col]
    N = event_table[columns].sum().sum()
    T = np.empty(N)
    C = np.empty(N)
    i = 0
    for event_time, row in event_table.iterrows():
        n = row[columns].sum()
        T[i:i + n] = event_time
        C[i:i + n] = np.r_[np.ones(row[columns[0]]), np.zeros(row[columns[1]])]
        i += n

    return T, C

def datetimes_to_durations(start_times, end_times, fill_date=datetime.today(), freq='D', dayfirst=False, na_values=None):
    """
    This is a very flexible function for transforming arrays of start_times and end_times
    to the proper format for lifelines: duration and censorship arrays.

    Parameters:
        start_times: an array, series or dataframe of start times. These can be strings, or datetimes.
        end_times: an array, series or dataframe of end times. These can be strings, or datetimes.
                   These values can be None, or an empty string, which corresponds to censorship.
        fill_date: the date to use if end_times is a None or empty string. This corresponds to last date
                  of observation. Anything above this date is also censored. Default: datetime.today()
        freq: the units of time to use.  See pandas 'freq'. Default 'D' for days.
        day_first: convert assuming European-style dates, i.e. day/month/year.
        na_values : Additional string to recognize as NA/NaN. Ex: ['']

    Returns:
        T: a array of floats representing the durations with time units given by freq.
        C: a boolean array of censorship: 1 if death observed, 0 else.

    """
    freq_string = 'timedelta64[%s]' % freq
    start_times = pd.Series(start_times).copy()
    end_times = pd.Series(end_times).copy()
    start_times_ = to_datetime(start_times, dayfirst=dayfirst)

    C = ~(pd.isnull(end_times).values + (end_times == "") + (end_times == na_values))
    end_times[~C] = fill_date
    """
    c =  (to_datetime(end_times, dayfirst=dayfirst, coerce=True) > fill_date)
    end_times[c] = fill_date
    C += c
    """
    end_times_ = to_datetime(end_times, dayfirst=dayfirst, coerce=True)

    T = (end_times_ - start_times_).map(lambda x: x.astype(freq_string).astype(float))
    if (T < 0).sum():
        print("Warning: some values of start_times are before end_times")
    return T.values, C.values

class StatError(Exception):
     def __init__(self, msg):
         self.msg = msg
     def __str__(self):
         return repr(self.msg)

def inv_normal_cdf(p):
    if p < 0.5:
        return -AandS_approximation(p)
    else:
        return AandS_approximation(1 - p)

def AandS_approximation(p):
    # Formula 26.2.23 from A&S and help from John Cook ;)
    # http://www.johndcook.com/normal_cdf_inverse.html
    c_0 = 2.515517
    c_1 = 0.802853
    c_2 = 0.010328

    d_1 = 1.432788
    d_2 = 0.189269
    d_3 = 0.001308

    t = np.sqrt(-2 * np.log(p))

    return t - (c_0 + c_1 * t + c_2 * t ** 2) / (1 + d_1 * t + d_2 * t * t + d_3 * t ** 3)

def median_loss(T, T_pred):
    return np.abs(T - T_pred).mean()

def cross_validation(fitter, T, X, censorship=None, k=5, loss_function="median"):
    """
    This implements the censor-sensative loss function as given in
    'Prediction Performance of Survival Models', Yan Yuan, 2008
    """
    pass

def yaun_loss(fitter, T_true, T_pred, X_train, T_train, censorship=None):
    "[WIP]"
    if censorship is None:
        t = T_pred.shape[0]
        sC = np.ones((t, 1))
        censorship = np.ones((t, 1))
    else:
        # We are estimating S_c(*|z),is the probability that the
        # jth individual survived to time yj without being censored
        fitter.fit(T_train, X_train, censorship=1 - censorship, timeline=T_true)
        sC = fitter.predict_survival_function(X_train).ix[T_true[:, 0]].values.diagonal()[:, None]  # dirty way to get this

    return (censorship * (T_pred - T_true) ** 2 / sC).mean()

def quadrature(fx, x):
    t = x.shape[0]
    return (0.5 * fx[:, 0] + fx[:, 1:-1].sum(1) + 0.5 * fx[:, -1]) * (x[-1] - x[0]) * 1.0 / t

def basis(n, i):
    x = np.zeros((n, 1))
    x[i] = 1
    return x

def epanechnikov_kernel(t, T, bandwidth=1.):
    M = 0.75 * (1 - (t - T) / bandwidth) ** 2
    M[abs((t - T)) >= bandwidth] = 0
    return M

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaGithub


text:
3. Living for the City
(credits to Ed Cox for the amazing image of London docks pre redevelopment)
One of the most written about shifts supposedly catalysed by the pandemic is the looming urban flight of the professional classes. Mastheads from Politico to The Guardian and The Telegraph have recently run variants on the theme of the escape to nature with a particular focus, as is often the case, on London. There are a number of reasons why this is overly-simplistic and is unlikely to be the case. The partial uncoupling of 'city–as-economic-unit' from 'city-as-physical-social-network' will make London a more vibrant, more textured and perhaps less unequal place.
For many, London is a necessary evil. The lure of work, particularly 'middle class' professional jobs means that many people cram in for the economic opportunity that would rather be in towns or villages. I have known many people, grudging residents of London – not Londoners – who while away unhappy years never taking much advantage of world-class clubbing, or free ballet performances, 10-quid West-End show tickets or just a walk along the Thames. Now this 'white collar proletariat' has a chance to unshackle itself from those chains.
Of course, there is more to the city than it's professional classes. But their departure will accelerate geographical diffusion of the skilled service sectors – the baristas, barmen and brewers that keep London sane. We can already see vegan Deli's in outer London suburbs; expect some of these London emigres to take their taprooms with them; urban tastes will mix with the de-hipsterfication of 'nice things' – no one wants bad coffee – finally ending the perceived urban monopoly on 11 pound pints and beard oil (anyone ever notice how self-consciously male so much of this stuff is?). This is nothing new; this was Brighton in the 90s, and more latterly places like Margate. Don't be surprised if towns with great train links for 2 days a week in the office, great city centre housing stock and good quality schools such as Bedford or Basingstoke or smaller spots in the stockbroker belt like Oxted start to attract a younger, pre-family demographic in their late 20s, and with them, their cafes and sourdough bakeries, sitting comfortably alongside existing traditional (non-ironic) butchers and hardware 'levelling up' the locavore scene in these places. Less genteel ('edgy') spots such as Gravesend or other Medway towns could provide alternative options for early-career workers, looking to make the most of first-job wages as they plan their next move.
Don't however, expect this exodus to be one-way. As pressure is lifted from the city with the departure of the 'have to be heres' and their financial muscle, there is more scope for the 'want to be heres' to come. With reduction of office space and the pruning of the white collar work, there is a chance, with the right incentives to make the city more diverse. Artists, musicians and all those who benefit from cultural agglomeration effects of the city will have more scope to return; the kind of people that in the past acted as an accidental 'thin edge of the wedge' for scavenging property developers and ended up displaced by the cultural capital created by their own success.
As someone raised a Londoner, clutching an old paper travel card, who remembers 50p bus fares and the opening of the Tate, taking myself on the train to school (in South London, real London, there was and is no Tube) I am hopeful. I am looking forward to a more passionate and engaged London, where those who previously priced the willing out, buy themselves an exit instead. What I am hopeful for is a city with fewer residents who resent being here and more space to breath, financially, culturally and socially for those of us who choose to make it home.
A Very British Lockdown
A smartphone frames a fat grey London pigeon zig-zagging towards its camera. The afternoon sun casts shadows of branches above and the bird below across the paving stones. As the bird beats a path towards the lens, tacking right then left, the brown booted foot of the cameraman kicks out from below the frame. As the bird skitters away, we hear their reproach, laconic, direct, estuarine; 'Two metres, Cunt.'
Welcome to a Very British Lockdown.
As the nation embraces panic-buying as a dynamic new format for a stolid old sport, a retail T20 set to revitalise traditional Test Match queuing, columnists poeticise the pleasures and sorrows of the 'stay-at-home boozer' (larger pours, fewer pulls) whilst weekend supplements cynically push recipes for homemade yogurts and sourdough-starters whilst Hackney is at its most vulnerable. Across the country, Wetherspoons branches are being vandalised as many take the opportunity to exact a long awaited vengeance on Tim Martin's 'Ryanair of Pubs' and The Zoom Arms has become our Moon Under Water. My very own Hangout Tavern hosted its inaugural pub quiz last Friday, with competitors from places as far flung as Hong Kong, New Zealand and Cornwall. The winner – Team Corona Loner – walked away with a pack of Donald Trump toilet paper, delivered courtesy of our sponsors, Amazon Prime. But this is now in danger of turning into a parody of one of those very columns…
The experience so far of 'Lockdown London' contrasts sharply with that of Shenzhen, where until a few weeks ago I was based; like comparing Butlins to Belmarsh. In the Southern Chinese megacity, streets were ghostly empty and many friends had not left their homes for weeks. The only vehicles on the street were the ubiquitous Meituan electric delivery scooters, speeding silently across concrete overpasses like lost yellow ghosts in an oversize game of Pac-Man. After fear and repression turned Hubei province into a dumpster fire, the People's Republic was using their most powerful tools to try and right that wrong; fear and repression. Red-arm-banded apparatchiks positioned at every apartment complex and building were taking the temperatures of anyone who did venture out, and were unsympathetic in removing the symptomatic. The indistinct but persistent threat of China's social credit system, buzzing overhead like an unseen Reaper drone, ensured that few bothered; Xi's digital panopticon at work. Ironically the coercion and compliance meant those that were out were relatively free to roam, leaving me starring in their very own post-apocalyptic short in the most future-imperfect of cities. But let me state now that this will not be an exercise in public health top-trumps, before Singapore, the Hitlerjugend Hermione Granger of international relations sticks up their hand to tell us the answer. No-one likes a swot, especially not one in jackboots.
By comparison, Britain has been relaxed. Too relaxed at first it seems. Restrictions have steadily ramped-up in proportion to 'our defiant spirit', as many initially saw staying at home as 'letting the virus win'. The problem with war metaphors is that they assume malice on the part of a lipid-coated strand of replicating RNA. Haters gonna hate, viruses gonna replicate; it's not personal. Meanwhile, Boris Johnson, our era's own children's party Churchill ('we will fight them on the bouncy castle, we shall fight them in the ball pits…') is finally having his chance to shine by putting a 'freedom loving people' under an increasingly restrictive house-arrest, fulfilling two classic Tory wank-fantasies at the same time; a good old fashioned national emergency, and the chance to incarcerate the poorest in inhumane conditions. Calling Covd-19 indiscriminate is disingenuous; it follows the ley lines of our own structural prejudice and past political decisions. Targeting those with poor nutrition, those who are badly housed or those in fuel poverty with laser guided precision. The pre-existing conditions that are key comorbidities are as likely to follow economic predisposition as genetic. The virus may not be animate, but it is alive to our iniquities.
The problem with the idea that we are 'all in it together' is that there is no 'we'. There is a woolly belief amongst some that this crisis will be some kind of catalyst for the healing of the country, a 'bringing together' of a fractured nation. There is perhaps some cause to hope. As this 'war' places the NHS at the heart rather than the military, it is much more universal. The health service touches almost everyone's lives at some point and is staffed by individuals from across the geographical, racial and class spectrums. It is in truth, the last common touchpoint that Britain has left in an increasingly dissociated marketplace of culture and ideas. Yet, as this emergency goes on, inequalities are more sharply exposed. It is hard to maintain an idea that we all stand together when we are told to stand two metres apart and every cough brings the suspicion that someone is a carrier. We can stand on our doorsteps and bang pots until we have beaten them into cymbals, but even in that moment, each household stands alone and faced with their own unique uncertainties.
In the first part of his essay 'The Lion and the Unicorn', George Orwell praises the English as a 'highly differentiated' people with a 'respect for constitutionalism and legality. Orwell's own description of a country where 'the liberty of the individual is still believed in…the liberty to have a home of your own, to do what you like in your spare time, to choose your own amusements instead of having them chosen from above' is echoed in Boris "Poundland Churchill" Johnson's 'freedom loving people' schtick, but the perverse logic of this virus is that we are having those leisures and amusements dictated, as well as our movement restricted. And after initial resistance, many have embraced this new reality. Faced with looming uncertainty, many have been quick to welcome the false security of a world of reduced choices. But just as the virus follows the paths which our own societal choices have laid out, so has our embrace of unfreedom been stratified by class. For every white collar professional showing off their shiny new 'work-from-home' set-up, there is a family with two-bedrooms too few and a few bills too many, where school was the most important meal of the day and a trip to the shops meant getting out from under the shadow of home. Even China, where many crimes committed within a marriage are not criminal, reported a three-fold increase in domestic violence during the lockdown in Hubei. And that is just what was reported.
In this light, the situation takes on a particularly nasty edge. The loss of freedom is not a particularly hard cross to bear for those that have enough room to be fine with confinement. Waitrose baskets take on a jolly agro-millenarian air as trolleys stacked with cracked bulgur wheat and pinot gris waft back to the Range Rover. Meanwhile the oh what a lovely war attitude continues for those 'isolating' in second homes (weren't they already though?), and in leafy outer-city suburbs, two-acre gardeners berate walkers flouting the two-metre rule, conveniently overlooking that we'd all be only too glad to stay at home if our homes looked like theirs. "Lockdown shaming" has all the ingredients to be the perfect palette cleanser for middle class authoritarianism, an entree to 'Totalitarianism-lite' (Slogan: 'I can't believe it's not constitutional…? Can you…?'). Combining sanctimonious compliance, with armchair epidemiology, and a righteous defence of the NHS, our 'one true faith'; It might just be the fascism that Middle England has been waiting for.
Across parks and commons, passive-aggressive distancing markers are neatly chalked along pathways. Some boroughs have relegated joggers to 'off-road' to make room for the more genteel pastime of dog-walking. Those with cars are freer to move whilst non-essential use of public transport is now seen as hacking great globules of spittle in the face of our ICU nurses – Literally – proving, for those who have forgone the urban luxury of owning a car, that no good deed does ever go truly unpunished. This weekend, whilst out cycling, I came to a car stopped atop a humped zebra crossing, it's driver deep in conversation with a friend on the opposite side of the road. Whilst passing, I quipped 'nice parking' and was met with a string of invective outlining why I should not be out, and 'how dare I', clearly peeved at having their catch-up interrupted by the flow of traffic. As I rode that afternoon, I passed a number of 'socially distanced' doorstep cups of tea and G and Ts. Nice if you have a front door and a doorstep to call your own. There seems to be a lot of 'how dare they' at the moment, especially from those who are best equipped to implement these kinds of work-arounds which highlights the flaws in the 'all in it together' rhetoric as sharply as David Geffen's Instagram. It's worth noting there is a 6 point difference between ABC1 and C2DE on the matter of whether this crisis has united the nation or pushed us further apart. Expect this to widen.
As tensions increase and high street queues becoming increasingly fractious, and judgements about the actions and reactions of others to these strange times become less and less implicit, I can't help feeling that there is a certain section of Britain who has been waiting a long time for this; an entitled subset who expect that we will all comply but is happy to take this opportunity to have the builders come and re-tile the roof; who will embrace ID checks at the train stations while driving the dogs many miles to take them on their favourite long walk; people who expect conformity to restrictions which may not be restrictive to them at all, and have little empathy for those who stray while just trying to stay safe or sane. It reminds me of the self-proclaimed 'Riot Wombles' after the 2011 London disturbances, the distinctly middle-class groups (#OperationCupOfTea #MugsNotThugs) who took to the streets with brooms to voluntarily help clear up; silently disapproving of the disorder and wilfully ignorant of its underlying causes, let alone the part they played in them. Because they were just 'getting on with things', why couldn't everyone else?
But blanket statements such as these are thrown over the existing topographies of inequality like a rug over a pachyderm. The same terms and conditions result in very different outcomes, leaving those who are most free the most enthusiastic to embrace unfreedom. But if we really are in this together we should be considering how we created this socio-economic landscape in the first place, not gleefully berating those who are stuck in its deepest fissures. We need to reflect on why the NHS need such careful handling to balance such limited capacity. We need to ask ourselves why there are so many precariat 'freelancers' who lack even the savings to weather a month without work, or why free school meals are such a vital lifeline for many families.
A crisis is often the pivot around which history turns.
The question is which way we will turn during this one.
Leaving London
It's been almost 6 months since my last fresh blog post. My rolling list has 10+ pieces on it that I want to write and I have two, potentially never-to-be-published draft pieces on Singapore, rights and liberalism sitting on my desktop (One with the working title ' Just Because Your Paranoid' and the other 'The Pragmatism of Principle'- for those I know personally, if you want to have read, drop me an email). This very personal piece was drafted on a fast train London to Bristol to present my final UK debrief for a while to the marketing department of TSB (appropriately branded as 'Local Banking for Britian'). And the High Contrast remix of Adele's 'Hometown Glory' has come on shuffle… the last song I listened to before I flew home temporarily two months ago. So bearing that in mind, you will excuse my indulgence in writing this piece rather than 'The HDB Social Contract' or 'The Uniformity of Cool' that are both still unwritten
Two months to close-up shop in London has been both quick and slow- the length of time I needed practically, but a strange, testing stretch. By the end, people in my office were commenting that they thought I had left already. Too short to get back into the rhythms of London; long enough to drink away the decent fitness I developed in 7 months of clean(ish) living in Singapore. Long enough to see the people I love and care about, but not long enough to do more than catch up and reminisce. And then back those relationships go into an odd kind of suspended animation, aging at a fraction of the speed of life.
So I am leaving London. Parting company with a city that is inextricably linked to my sense of who I am, and always will be. There are selfish reasons for this (smaller office, better career trajectory in a more placid talent pool), frivolous reasons (no reason not to gallivant round SE Asia for a few years of cheap sun and easy living) practical reasons (better wages and lower cost of living) but I want to talk about my philosophical reasons for the great love of my life and going 'on a break' while I have a fling with the Singaporean City-State's great social experiment. Perhaps what follows is an intellectual alibi rather than a reasoned decision, but I think it doesn't make the points any less valid.
I would like to caveat this, with the genuine belief that London still remains the cross the board leading global centre. There is a toughness and a care, a beauty and depravity, a blend of high culture and low morals, international ingredients marinated in local flavor that make it the accomplished all-rounder. New York lacks the self-effacement, San Francisco lacks the past, Paris lacks the Future. Sao Paulo the concentration of 'Stuff'. Berlin lacks the work, and Singapore in truth, lacks the Play. I will always be a Londoner. And I will always give you a reason why 'my town is better than your town', even if I have never been to 'your town'. But I have been privileged enough with this job to go to a lot of your towns and see the insides of your museums and markets and bars, not just the boardrooms and Business districts. And my town IS better than your town.
The problem is that London's 'better' is no longer 'good enough' to justify the Faustian pact that you enter into when you top up your Oyster or sign your next Assured Shorthold Tenancy. The rent's too damn high, the tube doesn't work, it rains a lot; at rush hour it feels like a seething, stewing brooding ball of thinly suppressed resentment. You feel tough because you are part of it. As a do-eyed newcomes you suck it in and after 18 months call yourselves a London ( you're not…just FYI… if your teen years involved being ferried by car to friends houses, then you just aren't). If you grew up and/or started your professional life, anything else feels like a holiday, a dilettante indulgence. An unreality. Working 60 hour weeks in Singapore, I still felt like I was on holiday. I felt guilty. I rode my bike every morning. I read the weekend paper on the beach. I took a clean, seamless underground rail network to work that cost 35p a single journey. (Singapore is NOT expensive if you have lived in London; the Economist cost of living index is skewed by always including car ownership. Which is ridiculous as there is nowhere to drive and a Taxi all the way across the island is little more than a tenner) Singapore is in particularly stark contrast and I have my own reservations and thoughts, which remain in those unposted articles for the same reasons that they outline within them (consider the 'message in the (lack of) medium' in this instance) but my ex is in Glasgow now working as a neurosurgeon and she lives in a beautiful central neighbourhood in a two bed tenement flat for little more than her share of our old London rent. There is an art school, some museums, a vibrant music scene, great restaurants, local produce, Whisky. But every major city has some of this. And by major, this is not about global Alpha cities. There is a beauty amongst the Betas too. Yes, of course its easy to cling to the idea that London is better. Because it is. Better clubs, better galleries, better plays, better parks (that one is debatable) attracting better global people, forging better global links, hosting better businesses. But are any of these good enough to justify the structural issues. The creaking infrastructure and its vast expense? The lack of housing, exacerbated by (irony or ironies) Singaporean dentists and Russina Oligarchs alike buying flats as a new class of Global bond asset.
Unless I become a dotcom millionaire, I can't see myself ever being secure and settled (and that could mean long term tenancies, not just ownership) in my hometown. Either you work in finance, are part of the global super-rich, or you persuade your parents to give you the deposit you have no chance. Raise your hand if you own in London. Good. Keep it raised if did this WITHOUT family money. Great, anyone left? Okay, and now keep it there if you don't work in FS. Anyone there? Hmmmm…..
So the tense, (un)holy trinity at play here….'Variety' (of people, things, everything), 'possibility' and (I am loathe to admit) 'money' made London, as I knew it, possible. Now money is choking out the other two. It is turning London into 'London™', a theme-park city that starts publicizing its own myth as 'Greatest City on Earth™' whilst forgetting what made it able to claim that. This is of course where I get accused of being one of those inverse snobs who is anti-nice things. I am not against change, I am against displacement. When Londoners don't feel that there is a London for them. That everything that the city creates is as (a)overpriced, and (b)designed with a certain audience. These young, upwardly mobile, easily bored 20 and 30-somethings (and their middle-aged imitators), have the economic leverage to suck the air out of anything that isn't an 'artisnal' 'pop-up' 'street food' 'warehouse' 'craft' crap-monger. This dystopian village is some way off, but it starts to look like whether by accident or design, that is the position that London will come to occupy in the global firmament. And to me, that isn't London.
I know this second point is new and probably needs more explanation, but my train is pulling in soon, and any cogency of thought that I may have had is collapsing rapidly. This theme park London thrives on a confidence trick that supports the Cultural Ponzi Scheme that is 'Greatest City on Earth™' as well as an actual ponzi scheme that is the housing market (purchase and rental). I worry Theme Park London is far too profitable to be stopped, and will soon be 'too big to fail'
If I were a braver man, I would work in a planning department of the GLA; I would join a think tank or work in social research. But I am a coward. So I am running away from home for a few years. It will always be home. I just don't know if I will recognize it.
Wrestling with Gentrification
The estate agents have been circling, and a few people sent a link my way, knowing it would ignite a theme that they knew would end up with me writing a piece that would inevitably make no attempt to ground an argument, and instead offered my own externalised version of a discussion that I have been wrestling internally. Thanks to Matt Thompson, and latterly Oliver Cox as catalysts for this
The article they sent me from the evening standard, was about my own neighbourhood, Brixton, and included this passage
Charlotte Ryder, 21, said Brixton Market was one of the main reasons she chose to move to the area after graduating in politics last year.
She said that she was instantly attracted by the "multi-cultural and friendly" atmosphere, as well as the vibrant nightlife and transport links.
Miss Ryder, an associate campaign executive for Diffusion PR, said: "I've just got back from Thailand and Brixton Market really reminds me of it.
Apparently the neighbourhood is now the go-to place for those who want to pretend their gap-yah never ended. The area is becoming an attractive inner London dormitory for London's young professionals.The problem I have with that is that I am both one of them and they are also everything I hate. The case for- I moved to Brixton 2 years ago with 2.1 from a Russell group university, a job in an ad agency, a vintage trenchcoat, and ray-bans reading glasses. The case against- I grew up down the road in a one-bed flat in Streatham with no central heating and my single mother surviving on benefits. I am also mixed-race, (white/afro carribean) though this is less important to the story here in Brixton or in London as it is in neighbourhoods in the US where this has been happening– though not irrelevant.
The Jerk Chicken place at the back of the Granville Arcade (Time Out readers will know it as "Brixton Village") seems somehow less vibrant. Two years ago it was packed every night, soundsystem blarring the yard packed with sometimes three generations of families, eating and gossiping, but the middle class crowd that dominates the new eateries in the back of the market has affected both rents- as many of the storeholders will attest to- and importantly the local community's desire to spend time at some of the more long-standing establishments, and the place seems noticeably less lively.Look at it, and its nearest next-door restaurant, the Thai much lauded by Jay Rayner, and it seems like a segregated dining area, separate and unequal.
I wrote a piece last year, berating many of the more long standing members of the community for not using these new facilities- my own response to the three young men, two black and one white who walked through Granville laughing and shouting 'this is Brixton, where the fuck have all the black people gone?'. But for many long-standing residents what they seek when they have an unstable life is stability. The constant novelty and change, and the pace and way in which it has taken place in the neighbourhood has not brought the community along with them. The constant novelty and change panders to a new influx who seek it as a counterpoise to their stable white collar world- it is not being done in a way that feels expansive, inclusive or ambitious for all.Charlotte Ryder is my current bete noire. But the pull quote above reflects my same desire to move here. Maybe that's why in my head I have vilified a 21 year old who I don't even know. I grew up in South London, and to me, that always was the real London. And coming in with my middle class job and wage and predisposition towards interesting music nights, eclectic restaurants and locally sourced food, I knew that these things would be there already in the community here, not in a sanitised, pre-packaged form, neatened up with the kind of shabby-chic, easily digestible pastiche of 'realness' that characterises so many other 'edgy' places.
I used to shop in the market for mangoes as a child, I used to convince bouncers to let me into Drum and Bass nights when I was 16 at Mass and Fridge and BugBar. Grandparents and Great-grandparents of mine had lived here when they first came over and got off the boat. I felt (still feel) very attached to the community. I didn't want to move here for farmers markets and pop-up dining experiences. I wanted somewhere on the tube where there was a market and some vibrancy and most importantly there weren't people like me. The traditional
professional dormitories such as Clapham and Balham or Finsbury Park in the north, or even 9in fact, especially) the Bow-Soho adland fixed-gear commuter corridor had little attraction. How can I ever possibly improve at a job that demands that I understand how to sell trainers to 16 year old kids on estates one day and the emotional connection between housewives in the midlands and their condiments the next if I spend my whole time surrounded by a liberal mono-culture. On a personal level, it may be what I look like, or what I do, but it isn't who I am or where I have come from, or for that matter even, where I want to be. I want to go into the local pub and talk to retired builders, ex-cons, bankers and shop clerks and everyone inbetween. I don't just want to talk to PR girls, graphic designers and corporate lawyers that dress like them.
So how do I feel? Conflicted. Excited to see a new area on the rise, especially one that I have always felt so close to, but apprehensive about how unevenly that rise is happening, with quality of life rocketing for some, and others feeling shut out of the party. The 'Charlotte Ryder'* idea of a multicultural neighbourhood is a restaurant filled with clones but just enough colour beyond the plate glass to make it seem 'real'.
Not much more than a decade or two ago, those on middle class wages were fleeing to the suburbs and beyond as fast as they could, leaving behind those who could not afford to flee. So many of these communities did what they could do get through as best as they could, studiously ignored by councils and governments. Open a couple restaurants and suddenly the flow reverses, and in run all the kind of people who would have turned their back on a neighbourhood like this even three years ago. And in they come, pricing out locals, alienating rather than integrating, as if to say, 'Thanks for holding the fort, but you poor people can all fuck off now.'
*apologies to Charlotte Ryder for becoming my own Milquetoast or Mitty for the purposes of this piece…
Me old China, you're the Drama Queen
There is a school of thought that suggests judgement on China Mieville's essay on 'apocalyptic London' should be reserved until Monday, when a longer version is posted to the sensationally-titled website www.londonsoverthrow.org. Depending on the thread that the 'extended version' navigates this may be a response to bad editing on the part of the NYT rather than the author. But with a URL like that, one would imagine that breath-holding isn't advised.
Mieville's authorial flânerie through contemporary London seems at once both melodramatic and undirected. The essay is bookended by public sector protests and ends with an excerpt from an interview with Lionel Morrison which he uses as a device to cast a tone over the whole of what has gone before. That in itself is misguided as the two quotes from Morrison and weaved together with a consummate storytellers deftness of touch to add a new intentionality that seems it is the authors as opposed to the interviewee's.
Morrison doesn't sound despairing. But he does sound tired. "Every time you do something and nothing goes any further, it eats at you," he says. "It starts this bitterness." It can break people down. Make them hopeless, or worse. When none of their efforts to improve anything work, some, he warns, will stop fighting. They will say, "Let us just wait for things to — for chaos, really, to take place."
In fact, the question is whether the second quote comes from Morrison at all or one of Mieville's shadowy half-formed pseudo-literary characters that seem to guide us through his London. David Lindo, the 'Urban Birder', is twisted to imbue London's Fauna with portents of the cities impending decay. According to Mieville, of London's wild parakeets, he 'eye's them with dislike', yet there is no word from his source that even intimates this. The dislike is instead authorial, in order to pick up where the fox, 'agent of animal chaos' leaves off, with a 'flock of feral parakeets' across Wormwood scrubs. Mieville could have chosen Richmond park, which has a significant parakeet population, but that frankly may have rang with the wrong kind of poetry.
In what we must assume is an intentionally disorientating gallop we take in Cameron, the Mittals and the Olympics, Boris Johnson, the two sides of Tottenham, the Riots, via a quick pop at the Guardian, before launching into ASBOs, Islamaphobia and the new far right. Still with me?
Mieville offers little insight on any of these. Instead we are given heavily coloured observation that moves Op Ed into a new territory of creative license. He manages a primary-school level jibe, ironically the least eloquent part of the piece at the Guardian's 'reading the riots' a relatively heavyweight piece of sociological research, but simplifying the conclusion to the point of absurdity.
What they discovered, through extensive research and interviews, was that what motivated many of those on the streets was resentment of the police and a deep sense of injustice. Eyes roll with the duh.
The parts where we are offered something approaching constructive comment is elementary, though it is somewhat lost amongst the literacy insensibilites. Lack of new council houses and resulting flight of the poor to outer London=Bad. Multicultural London=great from a culinary point of view. Far right parties= do well amongst disaffected groups in a recession. At this point as a reader, you can feel ones eyes beginning to 'roll with the duh'. He goes on to touch upon deaths in police custody, but not before he has drawn a cheap comparison between last years riots and 1981 in Brixton and 1985 in Brixton and Tottenham.
The disturbances of the 80s had a shape and direction that was lacking and there were social immediacies that were being addressed, (especially with regard to an even more strained race relations landscape) albeit in a very imprecise and extra-legal way. The problems now are of the same nature but different in character, though this is not the place to go into it, (though it would make a great comparative follow-up to FailToPlan's undergraduate thesis on 1981 in Brixton).
The critique of the changing nature of housing in London is particularly irksome as the return of the middle classes to central London and the associated investment has meant that London has steered away from the path that at its most extreme version is represented by US donut cities such as Detroit where flight from the centre has left the heart torn out. It is in fact London's increasing inner city rents and inability to build more social housing that is symptomatic of this move back to the city from suburbia. No doubt if the net flow was the other way also, Mieville would still be criticising.
Perhaps there is a question of audience. Published in the New York Times, the piece gives the impression of a steam-punk maze, a disjointed fantasy landscape where foxes roam wild on building sites and global near-future tournaments are built on old industrial sites for the entertainment of the violent masses by a privileged cabal who run government, desperate to keep the citizens from looting and rioting out of sheer boredom and wanton destruction. Which is probably exactly what you want to hear abut London if you are New York. The reality, at least in my opinion is very different, and my own thoughts on New York, here, reflect actually the ways in which London has developed and changed in a way that the its big sister across the pond seems unable to do, trapped in cultural aspic as a paean to the 20th century. Mieville's dystopian London is a great story, and part of me can't wait to read the book. Just make sure you file under fiction.
Consumption and citizenship
Raiding trainer stores, stealing mobile phones, smashing into money stores and pawn shops. As many of the 'string them up' lobby has been pointing out online, these people are not stealing to survive. But this is not an audacious raid on Gucci. They have not been forming up in Knightsbridge to try and gain the baubles of the very elite. Nor are they stealing bread to feed their families. What is being stolen are the very middle-class comfortable, quietly aspirational things that we are told now to accept as norms. All the images of life we are bombarded with are of lower middle class to middle class comfort. It is what we should all expect- we are all stakeholders and we are all middle class now, or so we are told. But of course that isn't the case, and these middle class paradigms of consumption that we are all meant to hold ourselves up to are unfair when actually, we don't see the Shadow Britain for whom these aspirations aren't only just out of reach, but a long way.
As marketers, we trade in dissatisfaction- we show people how things can help you self actualise. We actively encourage what Eric Fromm refers to as a 'having' mode of existence, rather than a 'being' mode. More and more sophisticated marketing encourages individuals to buy, under the assumption that the normative values that, if you want this, you will then have to save, or borrow or work more in order to have. We are in that respect, a pumping circulatory organ of capitalism.
The nature of what these looters have stolen the banal 'dream small' nature of stealing phones or non-generic branded tracksuits shows the sucess of our industry. It shows us that advertising has touched these people when society hasn't. They have the normative values of consumption, without the normative values of what we term civil society. The Pax Accumsan relies on having both these sets of norms- I want those trainers and I will get them through socially and judicially legitimate means. If we all had simply the want impulse, we would be as beasts. Which is the sad thing because ultimately, however much self actualisation we sell, underneath it all is an appeal to the worse side of all our human nature, the selfishness rather than the compassion. But that makes the world go round.
The problem is, that without the societal norms as well as the capitalist/accumulative norms we essentially have South Park's underpants gnomes, but with bricks and crowbars, and if society can't reach them, then maybe as responsible marketers we need to be teaching both. A friend of mine commented that 'The London rioters are teenagers rebelling against the only parent they've ever really had: the State.' Actually I would argue that they are listening to the only guardian or parent they have had, consumption. And unless they engage with society as well as shopping, they only have step one and step three…
Reflecting on the London Riots
Many people have been guilty of a vast misjudgement. This blog has already somewhat missed the point in posts earlier this year that bragged of integration, regeneration and the cultural vibrancy of Britain and the capital in particular. Though an article ten days ago here covered the other side, a warning as to what could happen if the wealth and increase and cultural exchange in London is not inclusive, the post was both prophetic and too late. There is an alternative London, an alternative Britain that co-exists in the same space at the same time, yet is never seen, a shadow nation completely disenfranchised from society. And it is the ignorance of the chattering classes, a complacent and misplaced belief that everything is getting better for everyone that has created this.
Everything has got better for some people, and so relative deprivation has increased. Those who have not been included in the wealth creation that Britian has seen are also those who have no voice, who lack the articulacy to find one and the channels through which to express it. I cannot condone looting, but I think I can understand it. If you can feel so marginalised that society, which we all need to partake in in some capacity for it to function, it in your mind something for other people, then why would you not simply take to the streets in this directionless outcry. It'll ruin your job prospects- so what? You will go to jail- so what? It's not the done thing- all my friends think it is! If that is the mindset, then there is nothing left to lose. They have nothing, or rather they feel like they have nothing. Why should they be expected to rally round civil society when they feel that civil society has nothing to offer them. When a job is about nothing but money and has nothing to do with pride or purpose, why would you bother unless your rich or famous in working one. The most eloquent image for that is the girl in the Curry's uniform outside the Brixton branch where she worked, arrested for looting.
Frankly it shatters so many of my myths about progressive, multicultural, cross class London- if the urban poor are feeling so disconnected, if the trickle down effect is such a lie, then we have serious issues- people are dissatisfied and so inarticulate and angry and disconnected from what we call societies norms that instead, for want of an eloquent way to express themselves, they have taken to the streets stealing from the most obvious symbols of what they believe is fucking them up- the shops and the chain stores and the retailers selling the things they are trained to want and can barely have. It's very very sad that we have created a situation where this level of opportunistic criminality is acceptable. What kind of level of disenfranchisement, voicelessness, hopelessness and frustration leads people to think that that kind of behaviour is okay. We have a serious problem on our hands and it isn't one that is going to be fixed by water cannon and a glazers bill….
I was in my local pub in brixton the other day and there was a guy braying that there was no recession in London and it made my blood boil. Go and tell that to the kids on the estates, go and tell that to the almost 20% of under 25s who are unemployed. The criminality is unforgivable and they must take responsibility for their actions But part of the cause was our collective complacency and we all need to face up to what we need to do to stop allowing people to be marginalised. And stop calling them chavs scum or thugs, if they are this, then we gave them the opportunity and often the title for them to live up to- it is a smug, nonconstructive and over simplistic view. And how do I feel about this as a planner? Just maybe, maybe we have added too much fuel to the fire of consumption and it has reached some kind of flashpoint?
Regeneration and disconnection
Apologies for a very UK-centric post, international readers, please get me on @alouneou to clarify any too-obscure UK references.
I live in Brixton. Prior to this, I lived in Norbury, and before that, from the age of 6 months, (the age I moved over from West Palm Beach FLA – yes I am technically American) I grew up in Streatham. Barring an intervening three years in a second string British city for university, I have spent my entire life in London, a city which completely skews ones view of the British Isles (here), but also one of the most multicultural, amorphous, evolving places in the world. Urban renewal has done London well- the city arguably could have become a donut by the end of the 80s- save for the City of London itself, but investment in the 90s gave London another chance. Inner city areas that were once no-go areas have become desirable places to live. But this economic narrative isn't what this post is concerned with.
I suppose this is the point where I set out my stall, and possibly make what could be seen as an incredibly awkward conversation. For the record I am of mixed descent (or for our American audience Anglo-Jamaico-scottish-Irish-Puerto-Costa-Arawak-Londonish) so in some ways, and probably wrongly so, it partially absolves me of the the misconstruction that some may build of this.
I was going for lunch one afternoon in Brixton Market, where a previously derelict section has turned into a vibrant, multi-use commercial space, thanks to London's largest renewal project, initially kickstarted by Spacemakers. Craft shops, artists and photographers and designers studios and a lot of very cheap, very very good restaurants have sprung up, and in the last year, you can see the Saturday afternoon North London 'tourists' down to check the place out.
This is undoubtedly a good thing. But a group of three guys, two black and one white came walking through while I was having lunch, and one of them turned round and shouted, part to his friends, part to himself, and part to those of us around 'Where have all the black people gone- I thought this was Brixton. What the fuck?' And in fairness, he had a point of sorts…
Brixton was, along with Notting Hill (!) one of the areas in the 50s and 60s that the Black community settled in. In 1981, it was the first place on mainland Britain to have petrolbombs thrown during the riots against police oppression of the community, and it has always been an important touchstone for black Britain. Yet almost all of those dining and milling around were white middle class. My first reply would be that the businesses were run by the local community, of all colours, and in a proportion far more reflective of the community. But why wasn't this regeneration of the market being used by all the residents, rather than the new influx of those from Mosaic's 'Urban Intelligence' section of the population. It wasn't cost- It isn't expensive. To eat at most of these places costs the same as a chicken based meal from a reputable ( or disreputable) outlet. Even if you prefer takeaway, surely you want to try something new?
Apparently not is the answer. And I think of our exasperated individual in the market's question should have been 'where are all the less socio-economically well off people?' There is a serious fallacy in the idea of social mobility if we have a culture where, though the museums are free, it is primarily the middle classes who benefit. Or where you can get a 5 poundtheatre ticket to see world-class actors at the NT, but still, every time I go, the audience is the same combination of 50-somethings and drama-school kids. This is a theatre that sits in Lambeth, one of London's most deprived boroughs. What are we doing to make sure we don't just make sure doors are open, but that people want to, and feel they can, walk through? If we don't, we are going to have an uneasy detente with areas like Brixton, or Hackney, or Shepherds Bush or any other place where we are seeing a migration by young professionals back to these lively, gritty, vibrant urban centres, and one that could flare up as we face a long hard grind out of this recession. We are being told that London is a world-leading cultural hub, I just hope it can be that way for everyone.

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


Beautifully wooded lot in a private subdivision. This nicely wooded lot is on a quiet dead end road and directly connects to hundreds of acres of Vilas County Forest land. Great recreation area, close to many, lakes, rivers, ATV and snowmobile trails. This lot is ready to build on with Electricity and telephone at the road. Call today and start enjoying the northwoods.


"Seiichi Yamamoto and the Murder Case of the Water Service Spectacles".
Recorded live at Muse, April 1994 on the 2nd in Kyoto and the 7th in Osaka.
Packaged in a sealed plastic bag with junk including cassettes, CD, advertising, 7″ record, chopsticks, cloth, coin, Q-tip, etc.


ISLAMIPEDIA™, Muslim World in CHAOS! Democratic IRAQ in Peace!
Egypt! Tunisia! Yemen! Pakistan! Jordan!
Meanwhile ... Democratic Iraq in Peace-&-Prosperity!
Meanwhile, Mubarak named a vice president for the first time since coming to power 30 years ago, a government spokesman said - an apparent step toward setting up a successor other than his son, Gamal, whom he had appeared to be grooming for the post, despite public opposition. Mubarak chose as his deputy his intelligence chief, Omar Suleiman, a close confidant.
Even as protesters celebrated, word of Suleiman's appointment disappointed those who had expected wholesale change. "He is one of Hosni Mubarak's people, and we reject those people. The people should get to pick their leaders," said Mohammed Abdel Rahman, 25.
As a 4 p.m. curfew came and went Saturday, the square - which police had kept off-limits on Friday - was filled with people as far as the eye could see. The police seemed to have disappeared from the streets after vicious clashes the day before. The army had been hailed on the streets as a potential savior, with protesters giving soldiers thumbs up and openly imploring them to join their movement.
On Friday, the troops had appeared steadfastly neutral. Late Saturday, however, they were doing nothing to move demonstrators out of the streets, despite an earlier announcement by security services that anyone remaining in central squares or major roadways after 4 p.m. would face arrest.
Asked whether they would enforce the curfew, soldiers said they would not.
"We are with the people," said Ahmed, a 20-year-old conscript.
Soldiers accepted fruit, water and soda handed out by protesters in Tahrir Square and smiled as protesters chanted, "Go, Mubarak, go!" Children were hoisted up on tanks in the middle of the square to have their photos taken with troops as the hulking remains of the National Democratic Party headquarters building, home to Mubarak's ruling organization, burned in the background.
Shortly afterward, a convoy of tanks rolled into the square, with as many as 20 protesters riding on each one. As the soldiers smiled and flashed peace signs, the protesters shouted "We are one!" and "Down with Mubarak!" Others held aloft a banner reading, "Game over, Mr. Mubarak."
"This is freedom," said Abdel Nasser Awad. "Now we know Mubarak will leave.
YEMEN - Protesters take to the Sreets!
YEMENIS, Albanians and Algerians have been inspired by the uprising in Tunisia, taking to the streets in the hope of overthrowing their governments.
Thousands of Yemenis, fed up with President Ali Abdullah Saleh's 32-year rule, demanded his overthrow yesterday in the first large-scale public challenge to the strongman.
Yemen's 23 million people are among the poorest in the Arab world, half of them living on less than $2 a day.
The government is widely seen as corrupt and is reviled for its alliance with the US in fighting al-Qa'ida.
There are few political freedoms and the country is fast running out of water.
But calling for Mr Saleh to step down was a red line few dissenters dared to cross.
"Get out, get out, Ali, join your friend Ben Ali," crowds of students and opposition groups chanted at a demonstration at Sanaa University in the Yemeni capital.
Since the Tunisian turmoil, Mr Saleh has halved income tax and imposed price controls. He has ordered heavy deployment of anti-riot police and troops to prevent riots.
* Egyptian regime, bracing for succession, secures near lock on parliament * Secular Tunisia may face a new, younger Islamist challenge * Cannes Film Festival's 'Hors la Loi': How well does France face its past in Algeria?
The protests, which started in Tunisia's interior last month and rapidly spread, reached the capital of Tunis on Wednesday. Demonstrators wielding rocks clashed with security forces, who used tear gas against them, according to media reports. The government says 23 protesters have died so far, while rights groups say the number is more than twice that.
In a sign of how shaken the government is, Tunisian President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali fired his interior minister Wednesday, just days after a speech in which he called the protesters terrorists and offered few concessions.
While the protests are unlikely to bring down any governments in the near future, they portend trouble ahead if leaders who have ruled with a strong fist for decades try to keep a tighter lid on discontent instead of creating a vent for anger.
The unrest in Tunisia and Algeria was triggered by unemployment and rising food prices, respectively, but the roots of the unrest go further than economic factors.
Protests in Tunisia erupted last month when Mohamed Bouazizi, a young unemployed university graduate from Sidi Bouzid, doused himself in gasoline and lit himself on fire in front of a local government building. Unable to find work in the formal sector, he had taken to selling fruits and vegetables informally but then police confiscated his merchandise and reportedly slapped him in public. His self-immolation was apparently an act of final despair. He died Jan. 4.
JORDAN protesters demand prime minister quit!
Thousands of people in Jordan have taken to the streets in protests, demanding the country's prime minister step down, and the government curb rising prices, inflation and unemployment.
In the third consecutive Friday of protests, about 3,500 opposition activists from Jordan's main Islamist opposition group, trade unions and leftist organisations gathered in the capital, waving colourful banners reading: "Send the corrupt guys to court".
The crowd denounced Samir Rifai's, the prime minister, and his unpopular policies.
Another 2,500 people also took to the streets in six other cities across the country after the noon prayers. Those protests also called for Rifai's ouster.
Members of the Islamic Action Front, the political wing of the Muslim Brotherhood and Jordan's largest opposition party, swelled the ranks of the demonstrators, massing outside the al-Husseini mosque in Amman and filling the downtown streets with their prayer lines.
King Abdullah has promised some reforms, particularly on a controversial election law. But many believe it is unlikely he will bow to demands for the election of the prime minister and Cabinet officials, traditionally appointed by the king.
Rifai also announced a $550 million package of new subsidies in the last two weeks for fuel and staple products like rice, sugar, livestock and liquefied gas used for heating and cooking. It also includes a raise for civil servants and security personnel.
However, Jordan's economy continues to struggle, weighed down by a record deficit of $2bn this year.
Inflation has also risen by 1.5 per cent to 6.1 per cent just last month, unemployment and poverty are rampant - estimated at 12 and 25 per cent respectively.
Ibrahim Alloush, a university professor, told the Associated Press that it was not a question of changing faces or replacing one prime minister with another.
"We're demanding changes on how the country is now run," he said.
He also accused the government of impoverishing the working class with regressive tax codes which forced the poor to pay a higher proportion of their income as tax.
He also accused parliament as serving as a "rubber stamp'' to the executive branch.
"This is what has led people to protest in the streets because they don't have venues for venting how they feel through legal means," Alloush said.
Algerians have been inspired by the uprising in Tunisia, taking to the streets in the hope of overthrowing their governments.
In Algeria, riot police armed with batons and shields clashed with protesters throwing rocks and chairs. They tried to march through the capital Algiers in defiance of a government ban on public gatherings.
At least 19 people were injured, the authorities said, but an opposition official put the figure at more than 40.
Protest organisers at the democratic opposition party RCD draped a Tunisian flag next to the Algerian flag on a balcony of the party headquarters where the march was to begin.
Albanians has been inspired by the uprising in Tunisia, taking to the streets in the hope of overthrowing their governments.
TENS of thousands of demonstrators have started a silent protest in the Albanian capital Tirana, a week to the day after clashes during an opposition rally killed three.
The demonstrators, headed by the leadership of the opposition Socialists and the families of the victims, started a march on the government buildings. People continued to pour into the downtown area near the government, bringing traffic in central Tirana to a standstill. Many protesters carried flowers.
In the square in front of the government, a stage was set up, and opposition leader Edi Rama, the mayor of the capital, was expected to address the crowds later.
Pictures of the three fatalities of the last rally were placed on stage, with the word "justice" written on them in Albanian and English.
There was a huge police presence in the capital, with two cordons surrounding the government buildings and 30 elite officers guarding the entrance.