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Economies of the future - Bangladesh, Philippines, Vietnam , Russia, China - most at risk from climate change
A new global ranking, calculating the vulnerability of 170 countries to the impacts of climate change over the next 30 years, identifies some of the world's largest and fastest-growing economies, including India, as facing the greatest risks to their populations, ecosystems and business environments.
The new Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI), released by global risks advisory firm Maplecroft, enables organisations to identify areas of risk within their operations, supply chains and investments. It evaluates 42 social, economic and environmental factors to assess national vulnerabilities across three core areas. These include: exposure to climate-related natural disasters and sea-level rise; human sensitivity, in terms of population patterns, development, natural resources, agricultural dependency and conflicts; thirdly, the index assesses future vulnerability by considering the adaptive capacity of a country's government and infrastructure to combat climate change.
The index rates 16 countries as 'extreme risk,' including nations that represent new Asian economic power and possess significant forecasted growth. Bangladesh (1), India (2), Philippines (6), Vietnam (13) and Pakistan (16) all feature in the highest risk category and are of particular importance as they are major contributors to the ongoing global economic recovery and are vital to the future expansion of Western businesses in particular.
"These countries are attracting high levels of foreign investment from many multinational organisations," said Principal Environmental Analyst at Maplecroft, Dr Matthew Bunce. "However, over the next 30 years their vulnerability to climate change will rise due to increases in air temperature, precipitation and humidity. This means organisations with operations or assets in these countries will become more exposed to associated risks, such as climate-related natural disasters, resource security and conflict. Understanding climate vulnerability will help companies make their investments more resilient to unexpected change."
Other countries featuring in the 'extreme risk' category include: Madagascar (3), Nepal (4), Mozambique (5), Haiti (7), Afghanistan (8), Zimbabwe (9), Myanmar (10), Ethiopia (11), Cambodia (12), Thailand (14) and Malawi (15). According to Maplecroft, the countries with the most risk are characterised by high levels of poverty, dense populations, exposure to climate-related events; and their reliance on flood and drought prone agricultural land. Africa features strongly in this group, with the continent home to 12 out of the 25 countries most at risk.
Climate Change Vulnerability Index 2011
Throughout 2010, changes in weather patterns have resulted in a series of devastating natural disasters, especially in South Asia, where heavy floods in Pakistan affected more than 20 million people (over 10% of the total population) and killed more than 1,700 people. "There is growing evidence climate change is increasing the intensity and frequency of climatic events," said Environmental Analyst at Maplecroft, Dr Anna Moss. "Very minor changes to temperature can have major impacts on the human environment, including changes to water availability and crop productivity, the loss of land due to sea level rise and the spread of disease."
Maplecroft rates Bangladesh as the country most at risk due to extreme levels of poverty and a high dependency on agriculture, whilst its government has the lowest capacity of all countries to adapt to predicted changes in the climate. In addition, Bangladesh has a high risk of drought and the highest risk of flooding. This is illustrated during October 2010, when 500,000 people were driven from their homes by flood waters created by storms. However, despite the country's plethora of problems, the Bangladesh economy grew 88% between 2000 and 2008 and is forecast to by the IMF to grow 5.4% over 2010 and up to 6.2% over the next five years.
India, ranked 2nd, is already one of the world's power brokers, but climate vulnerability could still adversely affect the country's appeal as a destination for foreign investment in coming decades. Vulnerability to climate-related events was seen in the build up to the Commonwealth Games, where heavy rains affected the progress of construction of the stadium and athletes' village. Almost the whole of India has a high or extreme degree of sensitivity to climate change, due to acute population pressure and a consequential strain on natural resources. This is compounded by a high degree of poverty, poor general health and the agricultural dependency of much of the populace.
There are 11 countries considered 'low risk' in the index, with Norway (170), Finland (169), Iceland (168), Ireland (167), Sweden (166) and Denmark (165) performing the best. However, Russia (117), USA (129), Germany (131), France (133) and the UK (138) are all rated as 'medium risk' countries, whilst China (49), Brazil (81) and Japan (86) feature in the 'high risk' category.
The Climate Change Vulnerability Index is the central component of Maplecroft's Climate Change Risk Atlas 2011, which also evaluates the risks to business relating to emissions, unsustainable energy use, regulation and climate change vulnerability. The index is also visually represented in an interactive, GIS derived "hotspots" sub-national map, which analyses climate change vulnerability risks down to a 25km² scale worldwide. Legend
Extreme risk
Medium risk
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HO CHI MINH CITY, Vietnam – In a region where governments are swollen with foreign currency reserves and inflation remains relatively tame, Vietnam is an island of economic instability.
The country's economy is still growing at 7 percent a year, but double-digit price increases for food and other essentials are punishing the working class and contributed to a top credit rating agency's recent decision to downgrade the country's sovereign debt. Vietnam's currency is consistently falling below the official exchange rates, creating a thriving black market for gold and dollars. And one of the country's largest state-owned companies is all but insolvent, brought down by debts that are the equivalent of more than 4 percent of the country's total output.
Hammer and sickle flags are still flying here as Ho Chi Minh City, the seemingly irrepressible bastion of Vietnamese capitalism, closes the Communist Party's National Congress, an event held every five years to chart the course of a country that has witnessed an economic miracle in recent decades.
"We are on the edge; there's not a lot of room for mistakes," said Le Anh Tuan, head of research at Dragon Capital, an investment company here. "The Vietnam story will depend much on how much the government understands the root of the problem and can fix it."
The problems, say many businesspeople and economists, are rooted in Vietnam's continued heavy reliance on state-run companies despite the country's opening to more private enterprise, which has expanded rapidly and profitably. For years the government considered its vast network of state-run companies as the vanguard of the economy, large conglomerates that the Communist Party could use to steer the country toward prosperity.
A view of a slum neighborhood along the railroad tracks in Hanoi, Vietnam, Jan. 8, 2011. In a region where governments are swollen with foreign currency reserves and inflation remains relatively tame, Vietnam is an island of economic instability that is punishing the working class. (Justin Mott/The New York Times) #
The Effects of Climate Change are the Greatest Threat to Humanity
Suffering the Science – Climate Change, People and Poverty, argues that the effects of climate change pose the greatest threat to humanity.
Flooding in the Philippines
The report combines the latest scientific observations on climate change, and evidence from Oxfam's work in almost 100 countries around the world.
Mother and children on the streets of Bangladesh.
"Women living in poverty, who already face a daily struggle to survive, are being hit the hardest," – Robert Fox, executive director of Oxfam Canada.
A survey of top climate scientists, also published by Oxfam, said poor people living in low-lying coastal areas, island atolls and mega deltas and farmers are most at risk from climate change because of flooding and prolonged drought. The scientists named South Asia and Africa as climate change hotspots.
Filipinos help to lift a boy up onto the roof of a building to escape floodwaters brought by Tropical Storm Ketsana in the Quezon City suburban of Manila on September 26, 2009. At least nine people were reported dead or missing in massive floods in the Philippine capital as a tropical storm lashed the eastern side of the country, radio reports said. AFP PHOTO/JAY DIRECTO (Photo credit should read JAY DIRECTO/AFP/Getty Images) #
An aerial picture shows residents moving through a flooded car park after heavy rain brought by tropical storm Ketsana in Marikina City, east of the Philippine capital Manila on September 27, 2009. At least 51 people were killed and more than a quarter of a million displaced after tropical storm Ketsana dumped the heaviest rainfall on capital Manila in more than four decades, officials said. Manila and surrounding areas were lashed with heavy rains for nine hours, leading to flash floods that inundated about 80 percent of the capital of more than 12 million inhabitants. AFP PHOTO/NOEL CELIS (Photo credit should read NOEL CELIS/AFP/Getty Images) #
A child sleeps at a schoolhouse turned into a makeshift evacuation centre in Cantas Town on the outskirts of Manila on September 29, 2009. Philippine flood survivors crowded into the presidential palace, gymnasiums and hundreds of other makeshift evacuation centres as the death toll from the disaster soared to 240. AFP PHOTO / MIKE CLARKE (Photo credit should read MIKE CLARKE/AFP/Getty Images) #
TOPSHOTS Residents wade through a flooded street in the town of Binan, Laguna province, south of Manila on September 30, 2009. Terrified Philippine flood survivors fled their homes on September 30 amid warnings that a looming typhoon may add to the devastation of a killer storm that affected over 2.2 million people. AFP PHOTO/TED ALJIBE (Photo credit should read TED ALJIBE/AFP/Getty Images) #
A woman walks by flood water during rain in Hoi An, Vietnam, Wednesday, Sept. 30, 2009 after Typhoon Ketsana passed. Flooding from the typhoon killed over 200 people in the Philippines, inundating the homes of nearly 2.3 million people over the weekend before slamming into Vietnam's central coast Tuesday. (AP Photo/Chitose Suzuki) #
A Vietnamese villager gets in a bamboo boat with boxes of provisions for his flood-hit famil at Dien Nam commune, in the central province of Quang Nam, following heavy rain brought by typhoon Ketsana on September 30, 2009. Stranded and soaked Vietnamese were marooned on rooftops waiting to be rescued as aid workers admitted the scale of the flooding after Typhoon Ketsana was proving too much. The typhoon killed 55 people and left 11 missing when it carrered into central Vietnam on September 29 after leaving 246 dead in the Philippines, where it struck days before as a weaker tropical storm. AFP PHOTO/HOANG DINH Nam (Photo credit should read HOANG DINH NAM/AFP/Getty Images) #
Two Vietnamese girls sit in a bamboo boat next to their flooded home at Dien Nam commune, in the central province of Quang Nam, following heavy rain brought by typhoon Ketsana on September 30, 2009. Stranded and soaked Vietnamese were marooned on rooftops waiting to be rescued as aid workers admitted the scale of the flooding after Typhoon Ketsana was proving too much. The typhoon killed 55 people and left 11 missing when it carrered into central Vietnam on September 29 after leaving 246 dead in the Philippines, where it struck days before as a weaker tropical storm. AFP PHOTO/HOANG DINH Nam (Photo credit should read HOANG DINH NAM/AFP/Getty Images) #
A boy sits on a water buffalo next to flooded houses at a village in the central province of Quang Tri as Typhoon Ketsana passes through central Vietnam on September 29, 2009. Typhoon Ketsana killed at least 22 people in Vietnam when it slammed into the country after wreaking devastation in the Philippines three days previously. AFP PHOTO / HOANG DINH Nam (Photo credit should read HOANG DINH NAM/AFP/Getty Images) #
Residents navigate by boats on a flooded street following the passage of the Typhoon Ketsana in the tourist town of Hoi An in central Vietnamese province of Quang Nam on September 30, 2009. The death toll from Typhoon Ketsana in Vietnam rose to 38 after 246 died when the storm struck the Philippines over the weekend. AFP PHOTO/HOANG DINH Nam (Photo credit should read HOANG DINH NAM/AFP/Getty Images) #
Filipino flood survivors reach out for relief
Drought in Tanzania
Growing rice in the Philippines
More people on the planet depend on rice than on any other crop. Rice plants react very quickly to temperature change: they show a 10% drop in yield for every 1ºC rise in minimum temperature. In parts of the Philippines, farmers have had to stop growing rice completely during the droughts caused by the 'El Nino' years, and river delta and coastal rice production has already suffered badly accross South-East Asia because of storms that overwhelm sea defences and salt-water intrusion into paddy fields.
Eating rice and fish in the Philippines.
An Asian Development Bank report warns that rice production in the Philippines could drop by 50-70 per cent as early as 2020.
Fisherman in Tanzania
Crops are only one part of the food story. Fish stocks are also endangered by climate change — threatening the loss of a significant source of protein and income for the 2.6billion people who get 20 per cent of their protein from fish. In many countries, dependence on fish consumption increases with poverty. In addition, 500 million people in developing countries depend — directly or indirectly — on fisheries for their livelihoods.
Fisherman in the Philippines
Both wild and farmed fish are threatened by a whole range of climate-driven problems — from raised sea levels and floods that damage fish farms on coasts and in river areas, to the increasin acidification of the oceans as a result of GHG emissions. A recent study suggests that 90 per cent of the food resources of the 'coral triangle' of the western Pacific will be gone by 2050, potentially affecting 150million people.
Health problems in Tanzania
In the last few months, several bodies including the Commonwealth countries' health ministers have concluded that climate change is the greatest threat to health globally this century. The poorest and hottest countries will suffer the most. The loss of healthy life years as a result of global environmental change is predicted to be 500 times greater amongst poor African populations than amongst European populations. Climate change-driven alterations in patterns of disease and illness are already occurring globally, and 99 per cent of the casualties of climate change now are in developing countries.
Urban slums in Bangladesh
Rapid urbanization — which can be spurred by climatic factors as people seek new livelihoods in cities — brings disease with it. Urban sprawls often lack health infrastructure, and migrant workers may not be able to afford care and medicine. Some of the worst health statistics emanate from cities.
Escaping the heat in Tanzania
Small increases in temperatures hit human beings hard. None of us, no matter how well acclimatised, can do heavy work effectively above 35ºC or so. A couple of degrees higher than that, and our bodies soon get exhausted. Once core body temperature passes 38ºC, heat stress may set in. The body tries to cool down by sweating; dehydration may follow. People's work rate slows. Ultimately, production and incomes decline.
Rice farmer in Bangladesh.
"Working under the open sky during summer has become nearly impossible in the past four years or so — for farmers and their cattle alike." — Mir Ahmed, Bangladeshi farmer.
Getting water in Tanzania
Finding and transporting clean water is a central occupation in the working day of many people in developing countries, especially women. When a community is short of food, or suffering an outbreak of desease, there are immediate ways in which they can be helped. However, scarcity of water is a much greater problem. According to the UN Development Programme, over one billion people lack access to safe water today, and that number can only increase.
2009 is one of the most important years in human history. In Copenhagen in December, politicians will meet at the 15th Conference of the Parties (COP) to the UN Climate Change Convention. This meeting will decide whether we face a future on a hot glowering planet, or whether we set a course for climate safety for everyone.
Who will feed the world?
It should be noted that hunger and malnutrition are due not so much to the unavailability of food as to the inability of the poorest members of society to access it at an affordable price. Feeding the world by 2030 requires on the one hand efforts to increase food production and therefore food availability, and on the other measures to ensure that the poorest and most marginalised sectors of society have the purchasing power to access what food there is available.
The climate changes, threatens and demands adaptation
Over the last four decades Cuba has made important progress in developing policies and practices for emergency preparedness and response,especially for disasters provoked by hurricanes. This effort has been the result of a combination of directives and priorities identified by the central government, along with initiatives from the population itself.
Haiti: From relief to recovery
The humanitarian response that has taken place over the past 12 months has saved countless lives by providing water, sanitation, shelter, food aid, and other vital assistance to millions of people. Yet, as Haiti approaches the first anniversary of the earthquake, neither the Haitian state nor the international community is making significant progress in reconstruction.
Haiti Progress Report 2010
Oxfam was one of the first agencies to respond to the earthquake in Haiti. So began one of the largest and most complex emergency programs that we have ever been involved in. Even in the developed world, recovery from disasters can take years. In a country already suffering from extreme poverty, political instability, and weak and often corrupt state institutions, the task ahead was even more daunting.
Righting two wrongs - Making a new Global Climate Fund work for poor people
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Planting Now - Agricultural challenges and opportunities for Haiti's reconstruction
The compact between the state and its citizens is weak; corruption, neglect, and favouritism towards the urban elite have left many rural Haitians distrustful of the government. Too often, decision-making forums have excluded the voices of rural poor people. However, since 2006, the government and donors have given greater attention to agriculture and listened more carefully to Haitian citizens' views.
Halving Hunger
The world can cut global hunger in half within five years, says a new Oxfam report released today. Oxfam's report coincides with an announcement by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) that the number of hungry people fell by 98 million last year to 925 million.
Promises, Promises: A briefing paper for the Kabul Conference in Afghanistan
The Kabul Conference marks the ninth international conference on Afghanistan in nearly as many years. While much has improved in the lives of Afghans since the fall of the Taliban, progress has fallen far short of what has been promised.
All eyes will be on Afghanistan on July 20, but it is what happens after the conference ends that matters most. Despite the formidable obstacles, the solution is not to take shortcuts or pursue quick fixes. It is to take fundamental steps to directly address the root causes of conflict, improve the effectiveness of aid and ensure that the needs of Afghans are at the heart of donor efforts in Afghanistan.
21st Century Aid: Stats and Report
Aid plays a role in saving millions of lives. Recently, a barrage of criticism has been unleashed on aid, with critics using individual examples of failed aid to argue that all aid is bad and should be reduced or phased out altogether. This is both incorrect and irresponsible. This report examines the evidence, and finds that whilst there is much room for improvement, good quality 21st century aid not only saves lives, but is indispensable in unlocking poor countries' and people's ability to work their own way out of poverty.
Maternal Mortality: Pregnancy as a Death Sentence
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Haiti: A Once-in-a-Century Chance For Change
New Oxfam report looks beyond reconstruction: re-envisioning Haiti with equity, fairness, and opportunity
Quick Impact, Quick Collapse
The Dangers of Militarized Aid in Afghanistan
World needs to act now to prevent new Sudan war, 10 aid groups warn
Major conflict could return to southern Sudan unless there is urgent international action to save the peace agreement that ended one of Africa's longest and deadliest wars, 10 aid agencies warn.
In a new report 'Rescuing the Peace in Southern Sudan released on the eve of the 5th anniversary of the signing of the peace agreement between the Sudanese government and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement the agencies said a lethal cocktail of rising violence, chronic poverty and political tensions has left the peace deal on the brink of collapse.
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Initial analysis of the Copenhagen climate talks.
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A man looks at a Rolex advertisement in downtown Hanoi, Vietnam, Jan. 8, 2011. In a region where governments are swollen with foreign currency reserves and inflation remains relatively tame, Vietnam is an island of economic instability that is punishing the working class. (Justin Mott/The New York Times) #
Traffic stops for a train to pass in Hanoi, Vietnam, Jan. 8, 2011. In a region where governments are swollen with foreign currency reserves and inflation remains relatively tame, Vietnam is an island of economic instability that is punishing the working class. (Justin Mott/The New York Times) #
Workers settle in for the night inside an office building they are constructing in downtown Hanoi, Vietnam, Jan. 8, 2011. In a region where governments are swollen with foreign currency reserves and inflation remains relatively tame, Vietnam is an island of economic instability that is punishing the working class. (Justin Mott/The New York Times) #
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A participant in the Congress Welcoming Performing Program carries a communist flag celebrating Vietnam's upcoming Communist Party National Congress in Hanoi, Vietnam, Jan. 8, 2011. In a region where governments are swollen with foreign currency reserves and inflation remains relatively tame, Vietnam is an island of economic instability that is punishing the working class. (Justin Mott/The New York Times) #
Nguyen Phuong Hung, a third generation blacksmith, works at his tiny corner blacksmith shop in the ancient quarter of Hanoi, Vietnam, Oct. 12, 2010. Hung is the last blacksmith on Blacksmith Street forging heavy iron goods like crowbars, hammer heads, files and drill bits. (Justin Mott/The International Herald Tribune) #
A vendor carries vegetables on a bicycle along a street in downtown Hanoi on December 17, 2010. The consumer-price index hit 11.1 percent in November, assuring that the full-year inflation rate will be a double figures. AFP PHOTO/HOANG DINH Nam (Photo credit should read HOANG DINH NAM/AFP/Getty Images) #
A vendor sells clothes along a street in downtown Hanoi on December 17, 2010. The consumer-price index hit 11.1 percent in November, assuring that the full-year inflation rate will be a double figures. AFP PHOTO/HOANG DINH Nam (Photo credit should read HOANG DINH NAM/AFP/Getty Images) #
A woman walks by the Gucci store in downtown during her engagement shoot in Hanoi, Vietnam, Jan. 8, 2011. In a region where governments are swollen with foreign currency reserves and inflation remains relatively tame, Vietnam is an island of economic instability that is punishing the working class. (Justin Mott/The New York Times) #
The future of wheat – in many ways the future of food – was the subject of an emergency meeting of agricultural officials who flew to Rome from around the world, concerned over skyrocketing prices. Since July, when traders saw a historic heat wave devastating Russia's crop, prices on the world's wheat exchanges have shot up 50 percent. Corn and other grains rose in lockstep.
Feeding the world, 9 billion people by 2050, will mean boosting food output globally by 70 percent over 40 years, the FAO says. But wheat, the biggest source of protein in poorer countries, is falling behind: As global population grows 1.5 percent a year, the growth in wheat yields – the amount of grain produced per hectare – has slipped below 1 percent a year. In the U.S., yields generally peaked in the 1990s.
In the volcanic valleys of central Mexico, on the Canadian prairie, across India's northern plain, they sow and they reap the golden grain that has fed us since the distant dawn of farming. But along with the wheat these days comes a harvest of worry. Yields aren't keeping up with a world growing hungrier. Crops are stunted in a world grown warmer. A devastating fungus, a wheat "rust," is spreading out of Africa, a grave threat to the food plant that covers more of the planet's surface than any other.
A Pakistani farmer sorts the wheat during the harvest in Muzaffargarh in Punjab province, Pakistan. The future of wheat - in many ways the future of food - was the subject of an emergency meeting of agricultural officials who flew to Rome from around the world, concerned over skyrocketing prices. (AP Photo/Muhammed Muheisen) #
A woman prepares chapati, a traditional bread made with wheat flour, by the fireside as her son eats a meal at their home in Allahabad, India. Agronomists say rising temperatures from global warming are reducing India's wheat crop. (AP Photo/Rajesh Kumar Singh) #
A man cooks roti, a traditional bread made with wheat flour, at a roadside stall in Mumbai, India. Future global wheat supplies are in question because of stagnating yields, the spread of a devastating wheat fungus, climate change and a volatile, unreliable market. (AP Photo/Rajanish Kakade) #
A Russian man shovels wheat at a farm in Vasyurinskoe. The US government cut its forecasts for global wheat production as Russia suffers its worst drought in decades. Russia has seen 10 million hectares (25 million acres), or a quarter of arable land destroyed in its worst drought on record. MIKHAIL MORDASOV/AFP/Getty Images #
A farmer plows a field to sew wheat in Baradero, Buenos Aires. The Russian decision of stop its wheat exports increased its price more than 70 percent per ton. DANIEL GARCIA/AFP/Getty Images #
Senegalese workers make bread from "Niebe" black-eyed peas at the Food Technology Institute (ITA) in Dakar. The black-eyed pea, known also as the cowpea, has the potential to feed millions and to act as a substitute for wheat which is not grown here or in many countries in the region. SEYLLOU/AFP/Getty Images #
Senegalese women sort "Niebe" black-eyed peas at a factory in Dakar. SEYLLOU/AFP/Getty Images #
A woman walks in wheat fields near Dong Van, Ha Giang, Vietnam. (Justin Mott/The New York Times) #
Residents tend crops near Dong Van, Ha Giang, Vietnam. (Justin Mott/The New York Times) #
North Korean villagers make their way along the fields at a village on the foothills of the Baekdu Mountains or known across the border as the Changbai Mountains as seen from northeast China's Jilin province. China, the North's economic lifeline and sole major ally, has pressed it to follow its example in freeing up the economy, but Kim Jong-il's regime appears so far to be fearful of relaxing its grip. OLLI GEIBEL/AFP/Getty Images #
An afghan farmer carries wheat in Herat province, west of Kabul, Afghanistan. Feeding the world, 9 billion people by 2050, will mean boosting food output globally by 70 percent over 40 years, the FAO says. (AP Photo/Reza Shirmohammadi) #
Indian Hindu priests clean wheat inside a temple in Ayodhya. Wheat, the biggest source of protein in poorer countries, is falling behind. As global population grows 1.5 percent a year, the growth in wheat yields - the amount of grain produced per hectare - has slipped below 1 percent a year. DIPTENDU DUTTA/AFP/Getty Images #
A man works in a wheat field, in Paraguay, 270 km east of Asuncion. In the volcanic valleys of central Mexico, on the Canadian prairie, across India's northern plain, they sow and they reap the golden grain that has fed us since the distant dawn of farming. But along with the wheat these days comes a harvest of worry. Yields aren't keeping up with a world growing hungrier. Crops are stunted in a world grown warmer. A devastating fungus, a wheat "rust," is spreading out of Africa, a grave threat to the food plant that covers more of the planet's surface than any other. NORBERTO DUARTE/AFP/Getty Images #
As the sun sets, Monte McMillan cuts wheat with his combine, on his farmland near Moscow, Idaho, which is shown in the background. (AP Photo/Ted S. Warren) #
Matthew Reynolds, chief of wheat physiology at the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center, CIMMYT, holds a stalk of wheat at the center in Texcoco, Mexico. Scientists say future wheat supplies are in question because of stagnating yields, the spread of a devastating wheat fungus, the impact of global warming, and a volatile, unreliable market. To boost yields, Reynolds said, researchers may have to rely on genetic modification. (AP Photo/Marco Ugarte) #
Wheat is shown ready for harvest near Tioga, North Dakota. KAREN BLEIER/AFP/Getty Images #
Traders at the Chicago Board of Trade work in the wheat options pit. Wheat prices have risen sharply again in 2010. U.S. Senate investigators cited market speculators as a major cause for even sharper price rises in 2007-2008, when people worldwide rioted over rising bread prices. Future wheat supplies are in question because of stagnating yields, crop disease, climate change and the volatile market. (AP Photo/M. Spencer Green) #
People walk past barricades of burning tires in Maputo, Mozambique after police fired on stone-throwing crowds protesting rising bread prices. Thirteen people were killed in the violence, which observers feared might be a prelude to food-price riots like those that swept the world in 2008 when grain prices soared. Scientists say future wheat supplies are in question because of stagnating yields, the spread of a devastating wheat fungus, climate change and a volatile, unreliable market. (AP Photo/Nastasya Tay) #
An Afghan farmer prays after a day of harvesting wheat in Bamiyan, Afghanistan. In the central highlands wheat and potatoes are the main crops, this year many of the farmers said their potato crops were up about 20%. Most families grow enough to feed themselves for seven months of the year but still are dependent on a high carbo-diet of mostly bread and potatoes which leads to malnutrition. (Photo by Paula Bronstein /Getty Images) #
A worker moves seeds from palm oil plants harvested from a boat in Kuala Cenaku in Riau Province, Sumatra, Indonesia. Norway entered a partnership with Indonesia to support Indonesia's efforts to reduce emissions from deforestation and degradation of forests and peat lands.
The business of pulp, palm oil and wood are causing the deforestation of Sumatra, the largest island owned by Indonesia, and is contributing global climate change to the extinction of many of the world's rare species.
A worker moves seeds from palm oil plants harvested from a boat in Kuala Cenaku in Riau Province, Sumatra, Indonesia. Norway entered a partnership with Indonesia to support Indonesia's efforts to reduce emissions from deforestation and degradation of forests and peat lands. (Photo by Ulet Ifansasti/Getty Images) #
The business of pulp, palm oil and wood are causing the deforestation of Sumatra, the largest island owned by Indonesia. A worker grabs seeds from palm oil plants harvested in Kuala Cenaku. (Photo by Ulet Ifansasti/Getty Images) #
A worker carries seeds from palm oil plants harvested by boat in Kuala Cenaku. (Photo by Ulet Ifansasti/Getty Images) #
A fisherman looks for fish in Preserve Kerumutan River. The business of pulp, palm oil and wood are causing the deforestation of Sumatra, the largest island owned by Indonesia, and is contributing global climate change to the extinction of many of the world's rare species. (Photo by Ulet Ifansasti/Getty Images) #
An illegal logger cuts trees from tropical rainforest in Kuala Cenaku.(Photo by Ulet Ifansasti/Getty Images) #
Water cuts through a devastated peat swamp on land owned by PT Arara Abadi, part of the Sinar Mas Group that owns Asia Pulp & Paper Co., in Riau Province, Sumatra, Indonesia. The business of pulp is causing the deforestation of Sumatra. (Photo by Ulet Ifansasti/Getty Images) #
Logger workers rest in their camp in a tropical rainforest in Kuala Cenaku. Norway entered a partnership with Indonesia to support Indonesia's efforts to reduce emissions from deforestation and degradation of forests and peat lands. (Photo by Ulet Ifansasti/Getty Images) #
A devastated peat swamp is dormant on land owned by PT Arara Abadi, part of the Sinar Mas Group that owns Asia Pulp & Paper Co., on October 2, 2010 in Riau Province, Sumatra, Indonesia. (Photo by Ulet Ifansasti/Getty Images) #
A forest is cleared for land by burning in Pangkalan Kuras. (Photo by Ulet Ifansasti/Getty Images) #
A plantation worker plants oil palm seed in Pangkalan Kuras in Riau Province, Sumatra, Indonesia. (Photo by Ulet Ifansasti/Getty Images) #
The acacia tree grows in a devastated peat swamp on land in Riau Province, Sumatra, Indonesia. Norway entered a partnership with Indonesia to support Indonesia's efforts to reduce emissions from deforestation and degradation of forests and peat lands. The business of pulp, palm oil and wood are causing the deforestation of Sumatra, the largest island owned by Indonesia, and is contributing global climate change to the extinction of many of the world's rare species. (Photo by Ulet Ifansasti/Getty Images) #
Russia's worst heatwave for decades shows no sign of relenting. President Dmitry Medvedev has declared a state of emergency in seven Russian regions over fires which have left tens of thousands of acres ablaze and uprooted hundreds from their homes. The emergency ministry said that forest fires had engulfed more than 114,000 hectares across Russia. It mobilized almost 240,000 emergency workers to fight the blazes, along with 2,000 members of the armed forces.
The fires in forests, fields and peat bogs have killed up to 40 people throughout Russia and come after weeks of searing heat and practically no rain. A new wildfire broke out near a major nuclear research centre in the Russian town of Sarov, causing the plant's management to ask firefighters and troops to reverse their withdrawal.
Natalia Solonina, 70, stands in front of charred chimneys, all that was left of her houses, after a spreading wildfire burned them to the ground as well as the entire village of Peredeltsy in Ryazan region, some 111 miles southeast of Moscow. Nearly 600 separate blazes have burned nationwide, mainly across western Russia, according to the Emergencies Ministry, which said that the area affected had increased. Hundreds of forest and peat bog fires have ignited amid the country's most intense heat wave in 130 years of record-keeping.
The severe drought has destroyed much of the wheat crop in Russia, the world's third-largest exporter, and now wildfires are sweeping in to finish off some of the fields that remained. Moscow announced a ban on grain exports due to the severe drought that has reduced this year's estimated harvest by a third.
Natalia Solonina, 70, stands in front of the charred chimneys, all that was left of the houses, after a spreading wildfire burned them to the ground as well as the entire village of Peredeltsy in Ryazan region, some 180 km (111 miles) southeast of Moscow, Saturday, Aug. 7, 2010. Nearly 600 separate blazes were burning nationwide Saturday, mainly across western Russia, according to the Emergencies Ministry, which said that the area affected had increased over the past 24 hours. Hundreds of forest and peat bog fires have ignited amid the country's most intense heat wave in 130 years of record-keeping. (AP Photo/Sergey Ponomarev) #
A Russian man walks in a forest near the village of Golovanovo, Ryazan region, on August 5, 2010.Russia struggled to contain the worst wildfires in its modern history that have killed 50, after President Dmitry Medvedev sacked top military officers for negligence in the catastrophe. AFP PHOTO / NATALIA KOLESNIKOVA #
A fire fighter attempts to extinguish a forest fire near the village of Dolginino in the Ryazan region, some 180 km (111 miles) southeast of Moscow. The new climate change treaty under negotiation for the last 2 1/2 years begins with a brief document called "A Shared Vision." The problem is, there isn't one. The latest round of talks that concluded Friday Aug. 6, 2010 showed that the 194 negotiating countries have failed to even define a common target or method for curbing greenhouse gases, just one example of the ongoing divide among rich and poor nations. (AP Photo/File) #
Russian people dig a ditch to protect them from fires in the village Mokhovoye, Lukhovitsi municipal district, some 130 kilometers from Moscow, on August 3, 2010. Russia's worst heatwave for decades shows no sign of relenting, officials warned as firefighters battled hundreds of wildfires in a national disaster that has claimed at least 40 lives. President Dmitry Medvedev has declared a state of emergency in seven Russian regions over the fires which have left tens of thousands of hectares of land ablaze and uprooted hundreds from their homes. AFP PHOTO / ANDREY SMIRNOV #
A tree trunk burning amid smoldering remnants of a forest outside the village of Kadanok, 90 miles (150 kilometers) southeast of Moscow, seen Tuesday, Aug, 3, 2010. The fires in forests, fields and peat bogs have killed up to 40 people throughout Russia and come after weeks of searing heat and practically no rain. The weather in the areas where the blazes are concentrated are forecast to reach 38 degrees Celsius (100 Fahrenheit) this week. (AP Photo/Alexander Zemlianichenko) #
Local residents make a human chain to carry buckets of water to extinguishes a peat fire in a forest near the town of Shatura, some 130 km (81 miles) southeast of Moscow, Thursday, July 29, 2010. Peat swamps started burning in central Russia following an unprecedented heat wave. (AP Photo/Sergey Ponomarev) #
A man sits on burned out car in the village Kriusha on August 7, 2010. Russia struggled to contain the worst wildfires in its modern history that have killed 52, after President Dmitry Medvedev sacked top military officers for negligence in the catastrophe. AFP PHOTO / ARTYOM KOROTAYEVKOROTAYEV #
Russian women cry near the remains of their burnt out homes in Voronezh on August 1, 2010. Firefighters fought an uphill battle against spreading forest fires that have already killed 30 people, destroyed thousands of homes and mobilised hundreds of thousands of emergency workers. The emergency ministry said that forest fires had engulfed more than 114,000 hectares across Russia. It mobilised almost 240,000 emergency workers to fight the blazes, along with 2,000 members of the armed forces. AFP PHOTO / ALEXEY SAZONOV #
A nun from the Vyksynsky Iversky monastery distributes food to volunteer firefighters in the forest near the village of Verhnyaya Vereya, some 350 kilometres from Moscow, on August 6, 2010. AFP PHOTO / ANDREY SMIRNOV #
Alexander, 26, collects potatoes in the garden of his house that was burned to the ground fire at the village of Peredeltsi that was burned to the ground by a wildfire in Ryazan region, some 180 km (111 miles) southeast of Moscow, Friday, Aug. 6, 2010. More than 500 separate blazes were burning nationwide Friday mainly across western Russia, amid the country's most intense heat wave in 130 years. (AP Photo/Sergey Ponomarev) #
The carcass of a charred bird, foreground, lies in the village of Mokhovoe destroyed by a forest fire near the town of Lukhovitsy some 135 km (84 miles) southeast of Moscow, Friday, July 30, 2010. The fires have spread quickly across more than 200,000 acres (90,000 hectares) in recent days, destroying this town, after a record heat wave and severe drought that has plagued Russia for weeks. (AP Photo/Dmitry Chistopudov) #
A Russian man scratches his head while standing near the charred remains of his burnt out home in Voronezh on August 3, 2010. Russia's worst heatwave for decades shows no sign of relenting, officials warned as firefighters battled hundreds of wildfires in a national disaster that has claimed at least 40 lives. President Dmitry Medvedev has declared a state of emergency in seven Russian regions over the fires which have left tens of thousands of hectares of land ablaze and uprooted hundreds from their homes. AFP PHOTO / Alexey SAZONOV #
A ceramic dog statue that survived last week's fire is seen surrounded by burned-down ruins of the wooden house in the village of Kadanok, 90 miles (150 kilometers) southeast of Moscow, seen Tuesday, Aug, 3, 2010. The fires in forests, fields and peat bogs have killed up to 40 people throughout Russia and come after weeks of searing heat and practically no rain. The weather in the areas where the blazes are concentrated are forecast to reach 38 degrees Celsius (100 Fahrenheit) this week. (AP Photo/Alexander Zemlianichenko) #
A forest fire volunteer on a burned field near the village of Plotava in the east of the Moscow, Aug. 5, 2010. In this summer of extreme heat, drought, crop failures and a nationwide eruption of wildfires, the Russian government is facing a rare upwelling of popular anger with more than 3,000 people left homeless because of fires. (James Hill/The New York Times) #
A Bulgarian firefighter drinks water from a fire hose while fighting a blaze in the forest near Noginsk on August 10, 2010. Russia fought a deadly battle to prevent wildfires from engulfing key nuclear sites as alarm mounted over the impact on health of a toxic smoke cloud that has shrouded Moscow. AFP PHOTO / VIKTOR DRACHEV #
Volunteers look at the sky as they prepare for extinguishing a fire at a forest near the village of Tokhushevo, some 50 km outside Sarov, on August 11, 2010. A new wildfire broke out Wednesday near a major nuclear research centre in the Russian town of Sarov, causing the plant's management to ask firefighters and troops to reverse their withdrawal. AFP PHOTO / VIKTOR DRACHEV #
Russian firefighters prepare to extinguish a fire at a forest near the village of Tokhushevo, some 50 km outsede Sarov on August 11, 2010. A new wildfire broke out Wednesday near a major nuclear research centre in the Russian town of Sarov, causing the plant's management to ask firefighters and troops to reverse their withdrawal. AFP PHOTO / VIKTOR DRACHEV #
Fading sunflowers droop in a field in Voronezh region, some 415 km (257 miles) south of Moscow, Monday, Aug. 2, 2010, after weeks of searing heat and practically no rain. A severe drought destroyed one-fifth of the wheat crop in Russia, the world's third-largest exporter, and now wildfires are sweeping in to finish off some of the fields that remained.(AP Photo/Mikhail Metzel) #
In this photo taken from the driver's cab, farmers bring in the harvest with their combine harvesters, which are reflected in the mirror, in a barley field near the village of Uzunovo in Moscow region, 170 km (105 miles) south of Moscow, Wednesday, Aug. 11, 2010. Last week, Moscow announced a ban on grain exports due to a severe drought that has reduced this year's estimated harvest by a third. (AP Photo/Ivan Sekretarev) #
Russian women organize donated clothing and household items at a humanitarian aid collection point in Moscow on August 10, 2010 for victim's of the nation's worst ever forest fires. Russia is starting to count the losses of the worst heatwave in its history, with economists saying the weather may cost the economy billions of dollars and undercut a modest economic revival. AFP PHOTO / NATALIA KOLESNIKOVA #
Teenagers jump into fountains to cool themselves in Alexandrovsky Garden just outside the Moscow Kremlin, Wednesday, Aug. 4, 2010. Usually Russia's summer snags are little more than a brief irritation; a few days of heat, followed by cooling rains. This year is different. Moscow, a city that has beaten back huge military assaults and survived horrifying terrorist attacks, is under a quiet siege that it seems helpless to repel. (AP Photo/Sergey Ponomarev) #
A couple rest in Alexander's Garden just outside Moscow's Kremlin, Saturday, Aug. 7, 2010, enjoying the brief respite from the smog due to a change in the wind direction. Deaths in Moscow have doubled to an average of 700 people a day as the Russian capital is engulfed by poisonous smog from wildfires and a sweltering heat wave, a top health official said Monday. Acrid smog blanketed Moscow for a six straight day Monday, with concentrations of carbon monoxide and other poisonous substances two to three times higher than what is considered safe. (AP Photo/Ivan Sekretarev) #
A newly married couple, no name given, celebrate their wedding despite the deep layer of smog from wildfires covering the ancient Russian city of Ryazan, some 180 km (111 miles) southeast of Moscow. Nearly 600 separate blazes were burning nationwide Saturday, mainly across western Russia, according to the Emergencies Ministry, which said that the area affected had increased over the past 24 hours. Hundreds of forest and peat bog fires have ignited amid the country's most intense heat wave in 130 years of record-keeping. (AP Photo/Sergey Ponomarev) #
A man sprays water on Tverskaya street in the center of Moscow, Russia, on Monday, Aug. 2, 2010. In many Russian regions, including Moscow, July was the hottest month since records began 130 years ago, and the heat wave is expected to last at least through the end of this week. Photographer: Alexander Zemlianichenko Jr/Bloomberg #
A young woman cools off in a fountain near the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, on Monday, Aug. 2, 2010. In many Russian regions, including Moscow, July was the hottest month since records began 130 years ago, and the heat wave is expected to last at least through the end of this week. Photographer: Alexander Zemlianichenko Jr/Bloomberg #
People rest on the Manezhaya Square just outside the Moscow Kremlin, Monday, Aug. 9, 2010, enjoying the brief respite from the smog due to a change in the wind direction. Deaths in Moscow have doubled to an average of 700 people a day as the Russian capital is engulfed by poisonous smog from wildfires and a sweltering heat wave, a top health official said Monday. Acrid smog blanketed Moscow for a six straight day Monday, with concentrations of carbon monoxide and other poisonous substances two to three times higher than what is considered safe. (AP Photo/Ivan Sekretarev) #
Local residents look at a heavy smog from a peat fire in a forest near the town of Shatura, some 130 km (81 miles) southeast of Moscow, Thursday, July 29, 2010. Peat swamps started burning in central Russia following an unprecedented heat wave. (AP Photo/Sergey Ponomarev) #
Chinese workers take a break at a site of the construction of a highway in Beijing. China is set to overtake Japan as the world's second largest-economy in a resurgence that is changing everything from the global balance of military and financial power to how cars are designed.
China's car production and sales will both exceed 15 million units this year, state media quoted an industry association as saying on August 4. China's auto sales exceeded 13.64 million units in 2009, which confirmed the nation's status as the world's biggest car market. China has moved to further free up the nation's gold market by allowing more commercial banks to import and export the precious metal, as rising prices for bullion and tumbling stock markets spur demand.
Global tourism faces a challenging year due to the downturn but the future is bright, with a growing middle class in emerging markets eager for travel, industry executives meeting in Beijing say.
Laborers work at an iron and steel plant in Huaibei, in eastern China's Anhui province. Manufacturing in China contracted for the first time in 16 months in July, an independent survey showed on August 2, lifting Chinese shares on hopes that policymakers will refrain from any new tightening moves. AFP/Getty Images #
China is one of the countries most susceptible to the adverse effects of climate change, mainly in the fields of agriculture, livestock breeding, forestry, natural ecosystems, water resources, and coastal zones.
Impact on Agriculture and Livestock Breeding
Climate change has already produced visible adverse effects on China's agriculture and livestock-raising sectors, manifested by in-creased instability in agricultural production, severe damages to crops and livestock breeding caused by drought and high temperatures in some parts of the country, aggravated spring freeze injury to early-budding crops due to climate warming, decline in the output and quality of grasslands, and augmented losses caused by meteorological disasters.
The impact of future climate change on agriculture and livestock breeding will still be mainly adverse. It is likely there will be a drop in the yield of the three major crops — wheat, paddy rice and corn; changes in the agricultural production layout and structure; accelerated decomposition of organic elements in the soil; enlarged scope of crop diseases and insect pests; accelerated potential desertification trend of grasslands; rising frequency of natural fire disasters; sagging livestock production and reproductive ability; and growing risk of livestock epidemics.
Impact on Forestry and Other Natural Ecosystems
The impact of climate change on China's forestry and other natural ecosystems are mainly manifested in the following aspects: the north-ward shift of the northern boundaries of eastern subtropical and temperature zones and early phenophase; upward shift of the lower boundaries of forest belts in some areas; elevation of lower line of highland permafrost and decreased area of permafrost; rising frequency of animal and plant diseases and insect pests with marked changes in the distribution of regions; reduced area and overall shrinking trend of glaciers in northwestern China; and threat to the oasis ecosystem posed by accelerated melting of glaciers and snow cover.
Future climate change will further increase the fragility of ecosystems, diminish the distribution areas of main afforestation and rare tree species, enlarge the outbreak scope of forest diseases and insect pests, and increase the frequency of forest fires and fire-vulnerable areas, shrink inland lakes and cause the decrease and functional degeneration of wetland resources, speed up the reduction of the area of glaciers and permafrost, and significantly alter the spatial distribution pattern of permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, and damage bio-diversity.
Impact on Water Resources
Climate change has already caused changes in the distribution of water resources all over China. Over the past two decades, the gross amount of water resources of the Yellow, Huaihe, Haihe and Liaohe rivers in northern China has been visibly reduced, whilst that of rivers in southern China has slightly increased. Floods happen more frequently, droughts get worse, and extreme climate phenomena show a conspicuous rise.
It is predicted that future climate change will have a great impact on the temporal and spatial distribution of water resources in the following ways: augmenting annual and inter-annual changes and boosting the occurrence of extreme natural disasters, including flood and drought. In particular, accelerated melting of glaciers in western China owing to climate warming will further lessen the area of glaciers and glacier ice reserves, thus having significant impacts on rivers and run-offs with sources in glacier melt water. Climate warming will possibly reinforce the drought trend in northern China, and intensify water scarcity and contradiction between water supply and demand.
Impact on Coastal Zones
The past 30 years have witnessed in China an accelerating trend of sea level rise, which has caused seawater intrusion, soil salinization and coastal erosion, damaged the typical marine ecosystems of coastal wetlands, mangrove swamps and coral reefs, and diminished the ser-vice functions and bio-diversity of coastal zones. Sea temperature rise and seawater acidification resulting from climate change have given rise to a lack of oxygen in some maritime areas, the degradation of marine fishing resources and the survival of rare and endangered species.
It is predicted that the sea level in the coastal zones of China will continue to rise. Sea level rise will undermine the capacity of public drainage facilities in coastal cities, and impair the functions of harbors.
Impact on Society, Economy and Other Fields
Climate change will also produce far-reaching impacts on society, economy and other fields, and cause huge losses to the national economy. Corresponding economic and social costs will have to be paid for addressing climate change. In addition, there will be increased chances of disease occurrence and spread, ensuing dangers to human health, rising possibilities of geological and meteorological disasters and con-sequent threats to the security of major projects. The eco-environment and bio-diversity of nature reserves and national parks will be affected, accompanied by adverse effects on natural and cultural tourism re-sources, and augmented threats to the safety of life and property, and to the normal order and stability of social life.
Chinese workers take a break at a site of the construction of a highway in Beijing. China is set to overtake Japan as the world's second largest-economy in a resurgence that is changing everything from the global balance of military and financial power to how cars are designed. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan) #
A Chinese man rests by loop of a highway under construction in Beijing, China. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan) #
A Chinese migrant worker walks past a make-shift wall with "luxury" written on, which encloses buildings of high-end commercial and residential project under construction in Beijing. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan) #
A Chinese migrant worker uses his mobile phone in front of a make-shift wall with Beijing's skyline, which encloses buildings of a high-end commercial and residential project under construction in Beijing. China is set to overtake Japan as the world's second largest-economy in a resurgence that is changing everything from the global balance of military and financial power to how cars are designed. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan) #
Cars are seen on a highway in Shanghai on August 3, 2010. While China overtook the US for the first time in 2009 to become the world's biggest vehicle market, data shows that the country's sales have started to slow in recent months. PHILIPPE LOPEZ/AFP/Getty Images #
Early morning traffic crosses the Huanhuayuan bridge across the Jialing in southwest China's Chongqing municipality on July 28, 2010. China's car production and sales will both exceed 15 million units this year, state media quoted an industry association as saying on August 4. China's auto sales exceeded 13.64 million units in 2009, which confirmed the nation's status as the world's biggest car market. OLLI GEIBEL/AFP/Getty Images #
A woman walks across a lawn surrounded by electric pylons in Beijing, China. China is set to overtake Japan as the world's second largest-economy in a resurgence that is changing everything from the global balance of military and financial power to how cars are designed. (AP Photo/Alexander F. Yuan) #
A truck driver waits in front of containers at the Tianjin port in China Thursday, Aug. 5, 2010. (AP Photo/Andy Wong) #
A Chinese worker waits for customers at a gold shop in Beijing on August 4, 2010. China has moved to further free up the nation's gold market by allowing more commercial banks to import and export the precious metal, as rising prices for bullion and tumbling stock markets spur demand. Franko Lee/AFP/Getty Images #
A Chinese bank worker counting stacks of 100 yuan (14.75 USD) notes at a bank in Huaibei, in eastern China's Anhui province. The yuan's daily trading band is "appropriate" for the time being but could be widened in the future, a vice-governor of China's central bank said in an interview published on August 2, 2010. STR/AFP/Getty Images #
A woman checks her mobile phone as she walks past a bank billboard in Shanghai on July 27, 2010. Nearly a quarter of the 7.66 trillion yuan (1.1 trillion dollars) that Chinese banks lent to local government financing vehicles is "at serious risk of default", a report said. PHILIPPE LOPEZ/AFP/Getty Images #
Tourists wait to take a cable car to cross the Jialing river in southwest China's Chongqing municipality on July 18, 2010. Global tourism faces a challenging year due to the downturn but the future is bright, with a growing middle class in emerging markets eager for travel, industry executives meeting in Beijing say. OLLI GEIBEL/AFP/Getty Images #
Two men walk past a giant fashion goods billboard outside a shopping mall in Beijing on August 2, 2010. LIU JIN/AFP/Getty Images #
Chinese visitors take a look at the latest Ford automobile at a auto dealership in Beijing, China. China is set to overtake Japan as the world's second largest-economy in a resurgence that is changing everything from the global balance of military and financial power to how cars are designed. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan) #
Chinese children play with toy cars at a toy fair in Beijing on July 29, 2010. China has moved ahead of Japan to become the world's second-largest economy, a senior central bank official said in an interview published on July 30. AFP/AFP/Getty Images #
Chinese house shoppers gather at a property fair in Beijing on August 2, 2010. China's banking regulators will step up spot checks on banks in the second half of 2010 to ensure lenders are obeying property loan policies introduced this year, state media said. STR/AFP/Getty Images #
Two tourists take photos at an old town in southwest China's Chongqing municipality. Global tourism faces a challenging year due to the downturn but the future is bright, with a growing middle class in emerging markets eager for travel, industry executives meeting in Beijing say. AFP/Getty Images #
Posted by ASC at 10:57 AM


Hotel Agriturismo Borg da Ocjs in Cormons – Book now!
Make yourself at home in one of the 5 individually decorated guestrooms. Your bed comes with down comforters, and all rooms are furnished with single sofa beds. Complimentary wireless Internet access is available to keep you connected. Private bathrooms with showers feature designer toiletries and bidets.The front desk is staffed during limited hours. Free self parking is available onsite.Take in the views from a garden and make use of amenities such as complimentary wireless Internet access and a picnic area.The recreational activities listed below are available either on site or nearby; fees may apply.A complimentary full breakfast is served daily from 7:00 AM to 9:30 AM.
Know Before You Go: All guests, including children, must be present at check-in and show their government-issued photo ID card or passport. Cash transactions at this property cannot exceed EUR 2999.99, due to national regulations. For further details, please contact the property using information in the booking confirmation. Children 3 years old and younger stay free when occupying the parent or guardian's room, using existing bedding.


Sealants — Dr. Christopher J. Brecke, D.D.S.
Sealants are usually applied to children's teeth as a preventative measure during the years of most likely tooth decay. However, adults' teeth can also be sealed. It is more common to seal "permanent" teeth rather than "baby" teeth, but every person has unique needs. Your dentist will recommend sealants on a case-by-case basis.


Caitlin Chicoski wants to leave a lasting legacy at Wellesley High. After a 50-goal freshman season, she is certainly well on her way.
The freshman midfielder burst onto the scene this spring, using her talented offensive touch to score 52 goals and power the Raiders girls lacrosse team to their best season in years.
At 14-1-1, the Raiders are firing on all cylinders. Chicoski and her teammates have bought into what first-year coach Michelle Cook is selling, leaving it all on the field.
Wellesley's only loss came against Needham, one of the state's top teams. The Raiders only lost by one goal, leaving Chicoski believing that they can make a run in the state tournament.
Chicoski's game doesn't leave any question marks. She plays the sport with fire.
Of course, Chicoski's game isn't perfect. While her goal-scoring ability has far exceeded expectations, Chicoski knows the importance of focusing on the other phases.
One of the biggest challenges for Chicoski has been her age. A first-year player on the varsity team, she was initially intimidated by the upperclassmen — but that didn't last very long.
So far, Chicoski hasn't let that potential roadblock get in her way.
After all, it isn't a completely new experience. Chicoski has been playing the sports since the third grade, when her parents signed her up for the town lacrosse league to play with her friends.
"My parents just kind of signed me up, and I'm glad they did," said Chicoski.
Lacrosse isn't her only sport, though. Chicoski also plays soccer and basketball at Wellesley, and even though she's only a year in, she has already noticed the benefits of playing multiple sports. Especially when it comes to lacrosse.
She may be young, but Chicoski knows she wants to play lacrosse in college. In fact, she's already begun the recruitment process. But that's a ways off, and for now, Chicoski is focused on what she can do on the field.


text:
D.I.T.C. Studios
Showbiz & A.G. - Full Scale (Cassette)
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Diggin In The Crates (D.I.T.C.) was born out of a group of artists who began making noise in the late '80s and into the next decade and beyond—namely Lord Finesse, Diamond D, and Fat Joe. After well-received albums, an official, wider collective was founded that also included O.C., Big L, Buckwild, and producer-rapper combo, Show & A.G. (originally known as Showbiz & A.G.).
The crew proceeded to drop a run of sublime records, including Show & A.G.'s Soul Clap EP (1992), their full-length debut Runaway Slave (1992), followed by Goodfellas in 1995. Show & A.G.'s next project, Full Scale, arrived in 1998 and featured appearances from O.C., KRS-One, Big Pun, the Ghetto Dwellas and verses from members of D.I.T.C. including Diamond D, Big L and Lord Finesse.
In 2002 a CD version titled Full Scale LP (using the same artwork) was released with 10 additional tracks which had originally been released on various 12" singles and projects in the late 1990s. The project had never been released on vinyl in its entirety – until now.
Production on Full Scale was handled by Showbiz and A.G. except for "Time To Get This Money" which was produced by long-time collaborator Ahmed, and "Hold Mines" and "Hidden Crates" which were produced by DJ Greyboy.
The assortment of guest features doesn't detract from A.G., a masterful emcee with a no-nonsense style that is simple but impactful. Full Scale follows the tried and true blueprint from Show & AG's earlier classics cementing its place in hip hop history.
Themes, Schemes & Dreams
Drop It Heavy
Time To Get This Money
Who's The Dirtiest
Put It In Your System
Raw As Ever
Dignified Solders Remix
Spit Remix
Hidden Crates
Hold Mines
Get Dirty
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More From D.I.T.C. Studios
Showbiz & A.G. - Full Scale (2xLP - Blue Splatter Vinyl - Fat Beats Exclusive)
D.I.T.C. - The Official Version (2xLP - Gold Vinyl - Fat Beats Exclusive)
Showbiz & A.G. - Full Scale (CD)
D.I.T.C. - The Enemy produced by DJ Premier b/w Instrumental (7")
D.I.T.C. - The Official Version (2xLP)
D.I.T.C. - Day One b/w Day One Remix (7")

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


This book is a courageous gift ... No Christian leader can answer the call of ministry today and not be informed about this issue.
As many as one in four girls and one in six boys experience sexual abuse during childhood, and it's estimated that half of the incidents are never reported.
Countless millions, both children and adults, carry this complex, often hidden pain. What does the path to healing look like for survivors? And how can ministry leaders, pastors, and counsellors best help them as they walk this difficult road?
Drawing on both his own and his wife's experience as survivors of childhood sexual abuse, minister and lecturer Tim Hein offers his expertise, practical guidance, and empathy. Both for those who have suffered sexual abuse and those in a position to help them, this book is a rich resource filled with sober truths and the hope of Christ, calling survivors to take courage and walk unafraid down the road of healing.
"'This book is a courageous gift,' writes Debra Hirsch in the Foreword to Tim Hein's powerful book, 'Understanding Sexual Abuse'. A courageous gift indeed; one of those books that the reader will feel privileged to have read and learnt from. Drawing on his own expertise as a church minster and the personal experience of his wife's and his own stories as survivors of childhood sexual abuse, Hein offers this deeply insightful, practical, pastoral and empathetic guide to ministry leaders and survivors of sexual abuse.
Unreservedly drawing attention to the fact that the church has often failed those who have shared the suffering they have experienced, Hein constructively opens up both the complex psychological and spiritual aspects of sexual abuse and he guides those in ministry, who may be trusted with the courageous stories of survivors, as to how best walk alongside; 'Listen, believe and acknowledge. Remember, this may be the single bravest moment of the person's life so far.' 'The posture of the Christian leader is one of…a sojourner,' willing to wrestle with the deep questions of 'Why God' along with the intentionality to create space within our churches for truth that 'gives voice to the deepest experiences of humanity.' The careful reading of this wisdom filled book will inform, guide and counsel those who sojourn alongside those walking the difficult road towards recovery. It will help you think before you speak, wrestle with the uncomfortable questions of suffering, prepare you to enter the trauma of childhood's stolen and it will point you to Jesus, the one so familiar with trauma and who leaves no one alone in their pain.
"When Jesus taught, whether in the synagogue, the market place, or on a mountainside, the gospel writers record that people were amazed at his teaching, 'because he taught as one who had authority, and not as their teachers of the law'. Reading Understanding Sexual Abuse, I sense something very similar. Tim Hein writes as someone who has authority: the authority that comes from walking the long, hard road of trauma, survival and recovery. Tim manages to draw on his own and his wife Priscilla's experiences with openness, sensitivity and compassion, but without sentimentality or angst, and in a way that informs and empowers the reader.
As a professional working in the field of child protection, I have discovered fresh insights into the nature and impact of child abuse. Tim writes with deep understanding, backed up by relevant and meaningful research. As a spiritual director, I have found myself encouraged and equipped to stand alongside those who have suffered or may be suffering from abuse. As someone who has seen first-hand the dreadful reality of child abuse, I believe that this book offers hope for many who walk that road. One of the greatest needs we all have – whatever the traumas we have faced – is for safe, sacred space within which we can discover the love and hope of the one who comes to give us life. This book provides just that.
Dr Peter Sidebotham, Paediatrician, Spiritual Director and co-editor, Child Abuse Review.


The mother of murdered Harvey Nichols beauty consultant Clare Bernal has told of how her daughter was scared and frightened of the stalker who killed her and demanded to know why she was not protected.
Patricia Bernal said the police and courts did not take the threat posed by her ex-boyfriend Michael Pech seriously enough, and said her daughter might still be alive if he had not been granted bail.
month at the perfume counter where she worked in the exclusive London store.
Pech, 30, a former security guard at the Knightsbridge shop who stalked Miss Bernal after the pair split up, then shot himself as terrified shoppers fled the building.
At the time, he was on police bail and was just days away from being sentenced for harassing his ex-lover, despite threatening to kill her as long ago as March.
He had been arrested twice in the months before the murder, once for breaching his bail conditions by trying to talk to Miss Bernal outside her home.
that period, where he reportedly bought the Luger pistol he used to kill her.
Mrs Bernal told the ITV Tonight with Trevor McDonald programme that Pech "should have been locked up" after breaking bail.
"He was obviously fearless, he wasn't scared of the police, and yes, he should have been put away," she said.
alive if that had happened, she replied: "Possibly, yes. It was made quite easy for him, wasn't it ?
"I do feel let down. I didn't realise how dangerous he was.
"I don't understand why, because Clare's life was threatened, why suddenly after breaking bail he wasn't watched, still watched.
"It doesn't make sense, he was allowed to leave the country, get hold of a gun... I still don't believe it, I'm still in shock.
"Most of me feels that she's going to walk in the door.
"Something's got to be done, people have to take stalking more seriously."
She expressed frustration with the way her daughter's case had been handled, saying: "Clare thought she was safe, I thought she was safe.
"I understand that statements weren't taken. Why weren't statements taken from her flatmates who saw him watch (her)?
"I just want to understand why Clare wasn't protected from the word go.
"She was very scared, she was frightened and I actually thought that she was being protected."
Asked whether she believed her daughter's case had been taken seriously enough by the police and the courts, she said: "At the moment no, I don't.
"I don't know that anything would have changed but I'm sure something more could have been done."
was "blossoming", and described the devastating effect her death had had on her family.
"We'll never be the same again," she said. "I still talk about having three children, not two.
"She was the most harmless innocent girl you could ever wish to meet, so trusting and loving, and why did the police not see the evil inside him?
"I think he was sick, and I think he was sick from the moment Clare had met him.
"She was extremely shy and she fought it, and she was getting there... we were all very proud of her... she was a very special girl."
Mrs Bernal told the programme that in her final conversation with her daughter, just hours before her death, she had seemed happy and was looking forward to seeing her at the weekend.
"She was blossoming, you know, she was just coming out of her shell, she was becoming a lot more discerning."
She also described the relief she and Miss Bernal had felt when Pech pleaded guilty to harassment charges, believing their nightmare was at an end, adding: "She was just so happy."
Mrs Bernal said the relationship between her daughter and Pech had lasted about three weeks.
"It wasn't serious, she quite liked him and it wasn't anything more than that," she said.
"He didn't want to leave her and she was getting tired and wanted time on her own," she said.
"The next day Clare told him or texted him that it was over, by this time she'd had enough, and the text messages started, he apologised and so it went on, the text messages.
"And then he started to follow her, started to stalk her."
Harvey Nichols was told about his behaviour and Pech was suspended within a day, Mrs Bernal said.
"I can't bear the thought that another family should go through what we've had to go through," she said.
"It's just a huge chunk of my life is gone, none of us will ever be the same again."
• Tonight With Trevor McDonald is at 8pm on ITV1 tonight.


A fascinating look at the predictable patterns behind trends.
Why do millions of people end up wearing the same style of clothing?
What makes people change their tastes in food, music, and cars?
It's because of trends - the powerful process of change that affects every industry across the globe.
Drawing on his groundbreaking research, trend sociologist Henrik Vejlgaard unearths essential clues about how trends emerge and go mainstream and examines the influential individuals who make this happen.
Throughout are real-life stories of both famous and anonymous movers and shakers who have had worldwide influence in changing our styles of living, including business leaders, designers, and artists, whole also conveying the fascinating development of little-known trends that perfectly illustrate the trend's life cyckle. Anatomy of a Trend explores every level of this remarkable process - making it easy for you to benefit from the powerful social dynamic that causes trends to take off and spread.
Vejlgaard delivers the tools and knowledge you need to capitalize on every stage of the trend process. As you gain insigt into this aspect of human behavior you will better understand trends and how they affect society, and ultimately learn how you can predict future needs.
Henrik Vejlgaard, MA, MSc, is the author of Anatomy of a Trend (published by Confetti Publishing) and The Lifestyle Puzzle (published by Prometheus Books).


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filed: November 11, 2015 • Australia
Residents fear increased wind farm noise
Credit: by Esther Lauaki | Star Weekly | November 11, 2015 | www.starweekly.com.au ~~
Plans to increase the height of turbines at the proposed Lal Lal Wind Farm have sparked a call by Moorabool residents for tighter noise controls.
Amendments to the construction permit for WestWind Energy's wind farm are presently before the state government.
Approved plans include 64 turbines, 130 metres high. However, the developers have applied to alter the plans to reduce that to 60 turbines of 161 metres in height.
Turbine blades would then be lengthened from 46 metres to 61 metres.
Lal Lal Environment Protection Association president John McMahon said residents were concerned about the noise the bigger turbines may make.
He said the turbines would be located as close as 650 metres from homes.
"We calculate this proposal would increase the turbine blade sweep area by a whopping 76 per cent," he said.
"This development makes it even more essential that a planning panel is convened to carefully consider the greatly increased impacts of the proposed, much larger mega-turbines."
Bigger 'doesn't mean noisier'
But Westwind managing director Tobi Geiger said bigger turbines meant more energy would be generated, with less noise.
"It should be noted that larger wind turbines are not noisier just because they are larger," Mr Geiger said.
"In fact over the last couple of years, we have seen significant improvements to wind turbine blade aerodynamics compared to the technology that was available when Lal Lal was first approved."
Mr McMahon said the state government had still not tasked the EPA to independently police turbine noise.
"Amazingly, wind companies continue to self-regulate," he said.
"The Lal Lal wind facility, if built as planned, would see 2005 people living within five kilometres of turbines. This would be an enormous community imposition."
Investors sought
Mr McMahon, said the Lal Lal farm, approved in April 2009, still required investors before construction could start. He said he believed the wind farm had attracted interest from Beijing-based company Goldwind.
Goldwind gained notoriety when it built 69 turbines just 180 metres away from houses at the Gullen Range wind farm near Goulburn in New South Wales.
"We would be forced to keep a very close eye on turbine construction as there is a worrying precedent with Goldwind," Mr McMahon said.
Mr Geiger would not be drawn on what parties are considering investment in the scheme.
"WestWind Energy is actively preparing for the next stage of this project and we are happy to provide more updates on this as progress is made," he said.
"I have had many discussions with many different parties over the last six months … none has led to an investment commitment by any party to date."
Source: by Esther Lauaki | Star Weekly | November 11, 2015 | www.starweekly.com.au


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Home›Destinations›Europe›France›Provence and the Riviera›Cagnes-sur-Mer and Le Haut-de-Cagnes›Side Trips
Cagnes-sur-Mer and Le Haut-de-Cagnes
Side Trips in Cagnes-sur-Mer and Le Haut-de-Cagnes
A Family-Friendly Side Trip to Villeneuve-Loubet
Neighboring beachside resort Villeneuve-Loubet (www.ot-villeneuveloubet.org) is easy to spot from a distance: Its landmark apartments on the Marina Baie des Anges curve back and forth like huge white, crested waves. It's one of only 32 destinations in France to have been awarded the official "Station Kid" designation, meaning it's particularly family-friendly. This town pays tribute to the haute cuisine of Auguste Escoffier, the greatest chef ever to run a kitchen in a nation with a rich culinary heritage. His former birthplace has been turned into a museum dedicated to French gastronomy, at 3 rue Auguste Escoffier (tel. 04-93-20-80-51; www.fondation-escoffier.org).
Frommer's EasyGuide to Provence and the French Riviera Buy Now
Frommer's France Buy Now


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The Bank of Canada keeps urging caution as markets show signs of life
Traders keep pushing bond yields and the loonie higher, but Stephen Poloz and the governors still aren't convinced that good times are back
By Kevin Carmichael March 1, 2017
Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz. (Adrian Wyld/CP)
On January 17, National Bank's Stéfane Marion, one of the better Bay Street economists, wondered if Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz might adopt explicit forward guidance to weaken the value of the dollar. Marion observed that the central bank's autumn revelation that it had "actively considered" cutting interest rates had weighted the loonie for only a short time. With a new policy announcement imminent, Marion asked, "why not surprise the market with a conditional commitment to not raise rates for at least another year?"
It was a provocative question. It also was a rhetorical one: most central banks, including the the Bank of Canada, resort to explicit statements about their policy intentions only in the case of an emergency. Canada's economy lacked verve, but, as Poloz had said on several occasions, it was doing ok. "We're not exactly holding our breath on forward guidance," Marion wrote in a note to clients. "But if you ask us, a weaker Canadian dollar and low rates remain critical ingredients when it comes to driving future growth – perhaps even more so considering the incoming president's vows to bolster American competitiveness and blunt access to the key US market."
Why the Bank of Canada is so cloak-and-dagger about the loonie
Why am I resurrecting a seven-week-old note from an economist? Because Marion might have been onto something. The Bank of Canada didn't adopt forward guidance in January, but it was unusually vocal about the exchange rate. Poloz made clear that he thought the dollar's value was hurting growth and that the traders who were keeping it aloft were misguided.
His verbal intervention worked initially, just as it had in the fall. But as days passed, and the U.S. dollar and American interest rates rose, Canada's currency and Canadian yields rose with them. Market participants listened to Poloz's message, thought about it, and then decided to go back to doing what they were doing.
You have to think that the market's refusal to listen is causing some frustration at the Bank of Canada. It acknowledged in its latest policy statement on March 1 that the most recent consumption and housing data suggest that economic growth probably was "slightly stronger" in the fourth quarter than forecast. Still, "exports continue to face the ongoing competitiveness challenges described in the January MPR," the central bank said, referring to the Monetary Policy Report, its quarterly assessment on the state of the economy. "The Canadian dollar and bond yields remain near levels observed at that time. While there have been recent gains in employment, subdued growth in wages and hours worked continue to reflect persistent economic slack in Canada, in contrast to the United States."
The Bank of Canada wasn't so disenchanted that it felt a policy change was needed: policy makers left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at the ultra-low setting of 0.5%. But the central bank clearly is concerned. It advised the public to disregard faster headline inflation, which has been pushed higher by new carbon taxes in Ontario and British Columbia. "The bank is looking through these effects, as their impact on inflation will be temporary," the statement said. Other measures of inflation are below 2%, the Bank of Canada's policy target, implying "material excess capacity in the economy." Policy makers called the uncertainties facing the Canadian economy "significant," a reference to the possibility that Donald Trump will upend the global trading system.
These are not the words of a central bank that intends to raise interest rates anytime soon. They might be the words of a central bank that is running out of patience with the current state of things. Expect Poloz and other policy makers to have one last go at convincing markets to price Canada differently. If they fail, they will either have to accept that the market is right—or try something else.
Why is Bay Street so much more bullish than the Bank of Canada right now?
MORE ABOUT THE ECONOMY:
After Trudeau's Trump meeting, Canada's sigh of relief is premature
Trudeau and Trump's "women's summit" was symbolic. That's why it matters
Trump, Trudeau tout "common history" of Canada and U.S. in first meeting
How Canada could become the missing link between Europe and Asia
Canada shouldn't throw Mexico under the bus to placate Donald Trump
Trump's guiding rule is "America First." Canada won't be an exception
Canada needs a free trade deal with China, says Teck Resources CEO
Why subsidizing small businesses doesn't actually boost innovation
FILED UNDER: Bank of Canada Editor's Picks interest rates Monetary Policy Report Stephen Poloz


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Q: How does Laplace expansion work?
\begin{bmatrix} 1 & 2 & 0 & 0 & a\\ 0 & 1 & 0 & 0 & 0\\ 0 & 0 & 1 & 1 & 0\\ 0 & 0 & 0 & 1 & 0\\ 1 & 0 & 1 & 1 & 1 \end{bmatrix}
Caculate its determinant.

Although it has small numbers, it's still fairly long to calculate the determinant of a large matrix. Peeking at the solution to this exercise, it says

Applying Laplace expansion on the second row and then on the third, we
  obtain a matrix of size $3$ where we can apply Sarrus. The determinant
  is $1 - a$.

I don't really know either of those terms, Laplace and Sarrus. Looking up at Wikipedia, Sarrus is pretty clear to me now, but Laplace is still fairly confusing.
How does Laplace expansion work?

A: Hint: Expand along the rows that have the most zeros.
Expanding along row 2, we have:
$$\begin{vmatrix} 1 & 0 & 0 & a\\ 0 & 1 & 1 & 0 \\ 0 & 0 & 1 & 0\\ 1  & 1 & 1 & 1 \end{vmatrix}$$
Note, what I mean by expanding along row $2$ using Laplace Expansion (see link below), is:
$$0 \begin{vmatrix} 2 & 0 & 0 & a\\ 0 & 1 & 1 & 0 \\ 0 & 0 & 1 & 0\\ 0  & 1 & 1 & 1 \end{vmatrix} + 1 \begin{vmatrix} 1 & 0 & 0 & a\\ 0 & 1 & 1 & 0 \\ 0 & 0 & 1 & 0\\ 1  & 1 & 1 & 1 \end{vmatrix} + 0 \begin{vmatrix} 1 & 2 & 0 & a\\ 0 & 0 & 1 & 0 \\ 0 & 0 & 1 & 0\\ 1  & 0 & 1 & 1 \end{vmatrix} + 0 \begin{vmatrix} 1 & 2 & 0 & a\\ 0 & 0 & 1 & 0 \\ 0 & 0 & 0 & 0\\ 1  & 0 & 1 & 1 \end{vmatrix} + 0 \begin{vmatrix} 1 & 2 & 0 & 0\\ 0 & 0 & 1 & 1 \\ 0 & 0 & 0 & 1\\ 1  & 0 & 1 & 1 \end{vmatrix}$$
Notice all of the zero terms that are leading? Only one item with a $1$ in front survives. Repeating this process two more times yields the result as follows.
Expanding along row 3, we have:
$$\begin{vmatrix} 1 & 0 & a\\ 0 & 1 & 0 \\ 1  & 1 & 1 \end{vmatrix}$$
Expanding along row 2, we have:
$$\begin{vmatrix} 1 & a\\ 1 & 1 \end{vmatrix}$$
Result:
$$\mbox{det} ~ = ~ (1-a)$$
I am basically using Laplace Expansion, because all the leading numbers for the expansion are zero. The site includes an example of where this is not the case.

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