text:
<?php

require_once(dirname(__FILE__) . "/../autoload.inc.php");

class RP_fileLseekOut extends RODSPacket
{
    public function __construct($offset = 0)
    {
        $packlets = array("offset" => $offset);
        parent::__construct("fileLseekOut_PI", $packlets);
    }

}

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaGithub


OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to derive a conceptualized model of risk in outpatient involuntary psychiatric treatment that has utility and meaning for stakeholders.
METHODS: Thirty-eight participants-patients, caregivers, clinicians, and legal decision makers-participated in qualitative interviews about their experiences of outpatient involuntary psychiatric treatment. Interview data were analyzed by using a general inductive method.
RESULTS: Six types of risk were identified: actual harm, social adversity, therapeutic outcome or compromised treatment, the system, interpersonal distress, and epistemic issues. There were overlaps between discourses on risk but variation in how different aspects of risk were emphasized by participant groups.
CONCLUSIONS: A comprehensive model of risk contextualized to outpatient involuntary treatment is proposed. It incorporates domains of risk of harm to self or others, risk of social adversity, risk of excess distress, and risk of compromised treatment. This model may have instrumental value in the implementation and the scrutiny of risk-based mental health laws.


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I have been coming to Jax Beaches dentistry for about 3 years now and can definitely say that is the best office that I have ever been to.
My daughter asks me when we get to go back for a teeth cleaning! Do you know any 8 year olds that beg to go to the dentist?


Aiden's Drive raised over $120,00 for epilepsy research in 2018.
January 2, 2019: Epilepsy Canada is proud to announce the awarding of four important research grants. The Board of Directors has approved a second year of significant funding to researchers at MNI McGill University, The Toronto General and Western Hospital Foundation and Krembil Research Institute, The University of Montreal and CRCH-University of Montreal. Together, these projects are expected to impact future treatment for patients who suffer from intractable (medication resistant) seizures. Benefits are being pursued in the areas of seizure forecasting, and improvement in defenses against SUDEP (Sudden Unexpected Death in Epilepsy).
Epilepsy Canada and Toronto General & Western Hospital Foundation (TGWHF) are excited to announce significant new funding for ground-breaking iPSC research at the Krembil Research Institute. Your brain under the microscope: the ultimate personalized medicine for epilepsy, has received an Epilepsy Canada research grant of $72,000 for the second year in a row.
Picture: Dr. Peter Carlen of The Krembil Research Institute (TGWH) accepts the funding cheque from Epilepsy Canada President Gary Collins on December 13. Looking on are Epilepsy Canada Board Members, Jay Barker (left) and Leonard Allen (right).
Over $540,000 more is required, over the next 2-plus years, for these important research initiatives to be successfully completed . Please help us with a special one-time donation.
Your support qualifies for an income tax receipt.


text:
Q: Why am I unable to rewrite exact data from a table using REGEX_EXTRACT in Google Data Studio? I have a campaign UTM table on Google Data Studio that I would like to re-write using REGEXP_EXTRACT so that the table only shows certain information.
This is the table that I would like to re-write data from:

Campaign

ID-google-campaign-20210212-all-en-en-HYPY-campaignname0

ID-google-campaign-20210522-all-en-en-MHTP

ID-google-campaign-20200204-all-en-en-PPOY

ID-google-campaign-20200422-all-en-en-YMYP

ID-google-campaign-20200223-all-en-en-YPPT-campaignname1

I would like to only present data with the various campaign name codes if they appear in the format: HXXX, PXXX, MXXX, YXXX, VXXX or CXXX.
Based on the above table, I would only like to have these values show:

Campaign

HYPY

MHTP

PPOY

YMYP

YPPT

I've tried a few variants of the regex but the data doesn't pull correctly, or it shows a portion of the data.
Some examples:
Showing Null
(H|P|M|Y|V|C)[A-Z]{3}
^*(H|P|M|Y|V|C)[A-Z]{3}
(H|P|M|Y|V|C){3}
Shows the first letter of the data
(H|P|M|Y|V|C)

Campaign

H

M

P

Y

Y

Using the Regex testers online shows that it works but it somehow doesn't filter on Google Data Studio.
What am I doing wrong?

A: We can try using the regex pattern [^-]+$:
REGEXP_EXTRACT(Campaign, "[^-]+$")

A: You can use
-([HPMYVC][A-Z]{3})(?:-|$)

See the regex demo. Note that only the part wrapped with a pair of unescaped parentheses (a capturing group) will be output.
Details:

*

*- - a hyphen

*([HPMYVC][A-Z]{3}) - Group 1: [HPMYVC] matches H, P, M, Y, V or C and then [A-Z]{3} matches three uppercase ASCII letters

*(?:-|$) - - or end of string.
`

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


text:
Recurrent SCAD Rates Lower Than Expected
Fran Lowry
The rate of de novo recurrent spontaneous coronary artery dissection (SCAD) may be much lower than previously reported, according to results of a prospective cohort study that followed patients for 3 years.
The study included more than 700 consecutive patients who presented with acute SCAD. The mortality rate was found to be less than 1%; the rate of overall major adverse cardiac events (MACE) was 14.0%; and the rate of de novo recurrent SCAD was 2.4%.
The findings, from the Canadian Spontaneous Coronary Artery Dissection Cohort Study, were published online October 17 in the Journal of the American College of Cardiology.
Dr Jacqueline Saw
"The 3-year outcomes were remarkably low, especially with regard to the recurrent de novo SCAD event rate, compared to what we had thought traditionally based upon prior, retrospective data," principal investigator Jacqueline Saw, MD, clinical professor, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada, told theheart.org | Medscape Cardiology.
"The recurrent de novo SCAD rate, 2.4% over 3 years, is a lot lower than what we thought originally. The result is reassuring, because previously, we would tell patients that their recurrent SCAD rate is between 25% to 30% in 3 to 5 years," Saw said.
"Importantly, a large proportion of the patients in our cohort were medically managed and did not undergo revascularization. At 3 years, some 80% were on aspirin, and about 75% were still taking beta blockers. That is a good proportion of patients on conservative management compared to patients in older series," she said.
The published literature on SCAD is primarily limited to case reports and retrospective series. There is a lack of randomized trials and few prospective data, and as a result, there is little accurate outcome data as to the natural history and prognosis of patients who present with SCAD, the authors write.
Because of this, Saw and her team conducted the current cohort study, which followed 750 consecutive patients with SCAD from June 2014 to June 2018.
The mean age of the cohort was 51.7 ± 10.5 years; 88.5% were women, of whom 55.0% were postmenopausal.
Some one third (31.3%) presented with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (MI), and 68.3% presented with non-ST-segment elevation MI.
Half of the cohort (50.3%) reported an emotional stressor as the precipitating factor, and 28.9% reported a physical stressor.
The most common conditions that predisposed to SCAD were fibromuscular dysplasia, in 42.9%; peripartum state, in 4.5%; and genetic disorders, such as Marfan syndrome, in 1.6%.
"The percentage for underlying genetic disorders was a much lower percentage than previously thought as a potential cause for SCAD, and the most important link was fibromuscular dysplasia," Saw commented.
Most patients (84.3%) were treated conservatively with aspirin and beta blockers; 14.1% underwent percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI); and 0.7% underwent coronary artery bypass graft.
At 3-year median follow-up, the mortality rate was 0.8%. The incidence of recurrent MI was 9.9%, with extension of SCAD in 3.5% and new de novo recurrent SCAD in 2.4%.
The overall rate of MACE was 14.0%, with more than one half of the events occurring within 14 days of the acute SCAD event.
For patients who underwent PCI during index hospitalization for SCAD, rates of postdischarge MACE were similar to those for patients who did not undergo PCI.
At the 3-year follow-up, 80.0% of patients were still taking aspirin, and 73.5% were still taking beta blockers.
"The previously reported MACE rate out to 3 years was a lot higher than what we observed in this prospective registry," Saw commented.
"Because most of the older studies were retrospective, I think there could be bias. But we enrolled all comers from several centers and saw a recurrent overall MACE rate of only 14% out to 3 years, which is low. I think having a very clean cohort of patients that are prospectively followed gives the most accurate data out there for the natural history of patients with SCAD," she said.
Dr Alexandre Persu
In an accompanying editorial, Alexandre Persu, MD, PhD, from Université Catholique de Louvain, Brussels, Belgium, and co-authors agree that the retrospective data, while providing key insights into SCAD, have made interpretation a challenge "by the inevitable risk of patient selection leading to bias in registry analyses.
"The key new finding in this 3-year outcomes report is a much lower rate of de novo SCAD recurrence at just 2.4% in 1.9% of patients after 3 years," they write.
The study suggests "a better prognosis and decreased SCAD recurrence rate in less selected, more representative SCAD patients," the editorialists add.
They conclude that the study "deserves a close analysis by all those interested in diagnosis and care of patients with SCAD and provides further motivation for clinical trials in this disease."
The study was funded by the Canadian Institutes of Health Research, Abbott Vascular, AstraZeneca, St Jude Medical, and Servier. Saw has received unrestricted research grant support from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research, the Heart and Stroke Foundation of Canada, the National Institutes of Health, the University of British Columbia Division of Cardiology, AstraZeneca, Abbott, St Jude Medical, Boston Scientific, and Servier; has received salary support from Michael Smith Foundation of Health Research; has received speaker honoraria from AstraZeneca, Abbott, Boston Scientific, and Sunovion; has received consultancy and advisory board honoraria from AstraZeneca, St. Jude Medical, Abgott, Boston Scientific, Baylis, Gore, and FEops; and has received proctorship honoraria from Abbott, St. Jude Medical, and Boston Scientific. Persu reports no relevant financial relationships.
J Am Coll Cardiol. 2022;80:1585-1597. Abstract, Editorial
Image 1: Dr Saw
Image 2: Dr Persu
Cite this: Recurrent SCAD Rates Lower Than Expected - Medscape - Oct 19, 2022.
Is Medicare Advantage Losing Its Edge inAcute MI Care?
Warfarin Best for Thrombotic Antiphospholipid Syndrome?
Spell It Out: Writing Out Common Medical Terms Boosts Patient Understanding, Says Study
Procedures Postinfarction Ventricular Septal Rupture
Diseases & Conditions Pathology of Acute Myocardial Infarction
Hope, but No Home Runs: Biomarker Distinction Between MI Types
News Spending More Time Outdoors Tied to a Higher Risk of MI and Stroke
Pathology of Acute Myocardial Infarction
Fast Five Quiz: Are You Prepared to Confront a Myocardial Infarction?
Fast Five Quiz: Prevention of Repeat Myocardial Infarction
Acute Myocardial Infarction Imaging
Patient Simulation: A 71-Year-Old Woman With Fatigue, Weakness, and Dyspnea
Keys to Diagnosing Broken Heart Syndrome (Takotsubo Cardiomyopathy)
Brain Differences Suggest Therapeutic Targets in Takotsubo
How Systolic BP Modulates LVEF Impact on Acute MI Outcomes
Recount of FOURIER Data Finds Higher Mortality With Evolocumab; Trialists Push Back
SCAD: Spontaneous Healing Common With Conservative Treatment
First AHA Statement on Spontaneous Coronary Artery Dissection

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


There's a tingling sensation that goes through the body when you hear that a friend has received the recognition and opportunity for advancement that comes with focus, tenacity and passion. That's what happened for me when I found out that Michael Novak has been named as the Artistic Director-Designate for Paul Taylor Dance Foundation.
The wonderful thing about the dance world is how small is actually is. A rewarding collaboration with one dancer can lead to connections to their friends who too become partners in making beautiful photographs. That's how I came to work with Michael a couple of years ago.
I had partnered on an editorial assignment with the noted choreographer Larry Keigwin, and when I found out that Paul Taylor Dance was coming to town, he was gracious enough to connect me with Michael. Despite an extremely tight schedule, and a snowstorm, Michael made his way to the studio late one evening after rehearsals to collaborate on the Limelight series.
Invariably, dancers come to the shoots full of energy and the intention to make something unique and special, and Michael was no exception. But more than that, there was an inquisitiveness and a dedication to the process of creativity and exploration that was truly impressive. Being respectful of the fact that he had not yet had dinner, and had performances the next day, I reluctantly stopped shooting after a couple of hours. Clearly, though, we could have continued for quite a lot longer considering the focus and joy he brought to the session.
I'm just delighted to hear that Michael has been given the opportunity to lead such a prestigious and beloved dance company. For more information, take a look at this article in The New York Times.


text:
Technology & the Entrepreneur
November 5, 2014 - 7:30pm - 9:00pm
The Library of Congress' Music Division and Science, Technology and Business Division present: Technofiles: Exploring How Technology Influences the Way We Create, Perform and Experience Music Technology & the Entrepreneur: The Ever-Evolving Landscape of the Music Industry Wednesday, November 5, 2014 7:30 pm | Montpelier Room, Madison Building (LM 619) Attend a discussion and networking session presented for a very wide group of stakeholder - musicians, producers, managers, engineers, booking agents - working where culture, creativity and commerce overlap. read more
DeVotchKa on Public Radio
Our friends in DeVotchKa swung through Washington, DC, back in March and went to the Hill with us to talk to Congress about the importance of public radio for musicians. The Denver Post recently ran an Op-Ed from the band; click over to the Post's website or see below for the full text of the piece.
The importance of public radio to the music community
By Tom Hagerman, Shawn King, Jeanie Schroder and Nick Urata
Originally published in The Denver Post, November 9, 2011 read more
Submitted by Hannah on November 13, 2011 - 1:36pm
Full Power FM
FMC @ DCWEEK 2011
Ready for another fantastic music-tech event? We know you've just recovered from the 2011 Future of Music Policy Summit, but if you're in the Washington, DC area next week, we hope you'll join us for DCWEEK.
DCWEEK is a week-long festival here in the District centered on collaboration between designers, developers, entrepreneurs and social innovators of all kinds. The week includes hundreds of individual events pitched and produced by the community alongside "official" conference panels, parties and projects created by iStrategyLabs and Tech Cocktail (the festival organizers). Join FMC staff at the following events: read more
Submitted by Hannah on November 3, 2011 - 11:12am
DCWeek
Royalties for Kitteh? YouTube and Artist Compensation
This post was written by FMC intern Danny Weiss.
Since its birth in 2005, the nature of YouTube as a platform for (just) homegrown video has undergone some seismic shifts. The site is now home to more media than almost any online streaming platform. Cute kittens and The Beatles (OK, little kids singing The Beatles) are now only a single click away. read more
Submitted by Hannah on October 18, 2011 - 12:45pm
Artist Revenue Streams
digital performance royalties
Money From Music
Tablets and Tunes: Will Apple's iPad Rock the Music World?
By now, you've probably heard all about the iPad and seen the pictures of Steve Jobs displaying his new "tablet" in a manner undoubtedly familiar to the late Charlton Heston. So far, reaction to the device has been mixed at best, with some people already lining up to take potshots at Apple's latest doohickey.
We still think it's pretty neat, mostly because we're curious about what it could mean for the music biz, which is still struggling to find an attractive replacement for physical product. And as long as whatever new gadget plays nice with independent and unaffiliated creators who want to join the digital party, we're cool. read more
Submitted by Casey on January 27, 2010 - 4:53pm


Product prices and availability are accurate as of 2019-04-19 21:33:14 EDT and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on http://www.amazon.com/ at the time of purchase will apply to the purchase of this product.
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I frequently observe companies that attempt technology-based change initiatives with the latest and greatest new technologies. Many believe that the provider of this technology will also ensure that their technology will successfully effectuate the intended changes. They effectively defer the planning, execution and, most importantly, control to this third party. More times than not, this recipe fails and takes the change initiative down with it. The result; blame the technology and try to find a "better" technology. In other words, they blame the equipment and not themselves.
When my clients engage my consulting services to help effectuate change, I advise them that successful change involves a three-step process: Plan, Communicate and Execute. These are not mutually exclusive, as each step comprises elements of the other two steps.
Since planning is the most critical step, most of my attention will be here. Successful planning necessarily means an objective discovery of the real problem driving the change. Frequently the stated and/or obvious problem is not the real problem, rather a symptom of a bigger underlying issue. We can better discover the real issue by channeling our inner four-year-old and repeatedly ask why. In Total Quality Management (TQM), the 5-Why Process is a useful tool to achieving real issue discovery.
Q1: Why are we having this trouble?
A1: We're ticketed too often for speeding, illegal lane changes, etc.
Q2: Why are we getting ticketed so often?
Q3: Why do they need to rush to make their deliveries?
Q4: Why do we need to schedule so many deliveries per driver?
Q5: Why are our service commitments so tight?
A5: Because the competitive landscape requires them.
The 5-Why Process doesn't have to repeat five times and it could actually be more than five questions. When we hit a why, that we don't have a clear answer for, we likely are at the real issue.
Once we have discovered the real issue, we need to properly define the scope of both the problem and its intended solution. A frequent planning occurrence is when the problem is clearly defined, but the solution slowly expands to include more than just the problem. In project management terms this is called "scope creep." While it is admirable that a solution goes well beyond what it's intended for, if the "well-beyond" is not planned for, it could compromise the entire initiative. The signs of scope-creep will usually include budget and time overruns.
Once the scope has been established, proper risk management must be employed. What are the risks involved with rolling out this new technology? If it's an EBOM rollout, will our veteran drivers have trouble with it? If they do have trouble, can we provide them the proper support? With the difficulty in finding new drivers, what is the risk with rolling out this initiative and possibly losing some veteran drivers? What is the plan if we do lose these drivers? While we cannot possibly plan for every contingency, we can plan for every category of risk. This will give us a significant head start in successfully addressing the problem and continuing on unabated.
There is no such thing as over-communication. The key is to provide honest, constant and relevant communication between the change team members, upwards to senior executives and outwards to those that will be affected by the change. This communication must take place in every step of the change process for the initiative to be successful. Since most of us resist change primarily due to the fear of the unknown, we must make special and concerted efforts to combat this through every form of organizational communication (face-to-face, e-mail, video conferencing, etc.). Most importantly, if we don't have an immediate answer, we must honestly and in a timely fashion, communicate this as well.
Assuming that we have planned and communicated properly, we still must execute according to plan. If we have planned properly, than the likely hiccups inherent in any change initiative will have been planned for and can be addressed according to plan.
The end result will not be an ill-planned innovative rollout, but a rollout that encompasses the best of change management and, most importantly, accomplishes its intended goal(s).
Moe Glenner is the founder and president of PURELogistics, a leading consulting firm that specializes in organizational change. He earned his MBA at Lake Forest Graduate School of Management and a Lean Six Sigma Black Belt Certification from Villanova University. Glenner's new book, Selfish Altruism: Managing & Executing Successful Change Initiatives ($13.95 | Amazon), explores best practices in organizational change. For more information, visit www.moeglenner.com.


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The Lions have reached a 1-year deal with RB C.J. Anderson, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter. That supports HC Matt Patricia's recently stated plan of continuing to deploy a backfield committee. Anderson joins a group that will also return Kerryon Johnson, Theo Riddick and Zach Zenner (who got a new 1-year deal). Anderson came on with the Rams at the end of last season after doing next-to-nothing with the Panthers. L.A. opted for youngster Malcolm Brown, however, behind Todd Gurley. Anderson threatens to take goal-line carries from Johnson, though the 2018 rookie remains the highest-upside RB in Detroit. This will be 1 of the more interesting backfield's to project over the next 2 months.
The Raiders have signed TE Luke Willson. The 29-year-old has yet to top 22 catches across 6 NFL seasons. Jared Cook's departure has Willson and former WR Darren Waller sitting atop Oakland's TE depth chart right now. The Raiders could still add to the position in free agency or the draft. But the passing game figures to revolve around WRs Antonio Brown and Tyrell Williams.
The Eagles have traded for RB Jordan Howard, giving a conditional 6th-round pick that could become a 5th-rounder, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter. So even the worst-case scenario here for Philadelphia would mean giving a pick in the round in which Chicago drafted Howard. The 24-year-old -- until November -- gives the Eagles a younger player to fulfill a role likely similar to what LeGarrette Blount and Jay Ajayi played the past couple of years. At the very least, Howard looks like Philly's best bet near the goal line. We'll see if the Eagles add anything else to the position in the NFL Draft. In Chicago, meanwhile, RB Mike Davis appears ready to take over Howard's vacated role and looks like an option late in the single-digit rounds of best-ball drafts.
The Raiders have signed RB Isaiah Crowell to a 1-year contract. Crowell averaged 4.8 yards per carry in a wildly inconsistent 2018 with the Jets. He delivered 219 yards in a win over the Dolphins and racked up 102 and 2 TDs on just 10 carries in the surprise opening blowout win at Detroit. But Crowell cracked 50 yards just 1 other time and tallied only 143 rushing attempts (plus 21 catches) for the season. His arrival in Oakland likely means unrestricted free agent Doug Martin is done there. Marshawn Lynch isn't expected to decide until after the NFL Draft whether he'll return for another season. RBs Jalen Richard and Chris Warren remain on the roster. HC Jon Gruden has compared Richard to former RB Charlie Garner, which indicates he'll maintain a significant role. Warren spent his rookie season on IR after a flashy preseason. This backfield figures to see further changes before we can project its 2019 touch splits.
Baldwin to have April surgery -- and more?
Seahawks WR Doug Baldwin will have sports hernia surgery in April, according to multiple reports. And that might not be all for this offseason. When asked whether this would be Baldwin's last operation of 2019, HC Pete Carroll told the Seattle Times: "I don't know that conclusively. Still working on some stuff." Baldwin's obviously a big question mark for anyone drafting best-ball teams right now. He's a risk anywhere in the single-digit rounds. Carroll said there's no timetable on Baldwin's return. We'll see whether the Seahawks address the position in the NFL Draft.
WR Jordy Nelson is retiring. Former teammate James Jones broke the news on Twitter. Nelson racked up 8,587 yards and 72 TDs over his 10-season career. He turned in 3 seasons of 13+ TDs -- a number topped by only Jerry Rice, Terrell Owens and Randy Moss. Turning 34 in May, Nelson picked a good time to hang up his cleats.
The Bills have released RB Chris Ivory. It's not a surprising move after the team signed veteran RB Frank Gore, and it saves the Bills $2.156 million. Ivory has topped 110 carries for 6 straight seasons but has also averaged 3.8 yards per carry or less each of the past 3 years. That included a career-low 3.3 in 2018. We'll see if the 31-year-old catches on somewhere else. Don't bet on him being much of a 2019 fantasy football factor, though.
The Buccaneers have signed QB Blaine Gabbert, according to The Athletic. He'll now back up QB Jameis Winston after playing the same role with the 49ers, Cardinals and Titans previously. Tennessee's trade for Ryan Tannehill replaced Gabbert there. Gabbert previously played under new Bucs HC Bruce Arians with the 2017 Cardinals, where he went 2-3 in 5 starts.
Broncos RB Phillip Lindsay (wrist) won't be able to participate in OTAs in late April, HC Vic Fangio said. Lindsay had wrist surgery in late December and was originally expected back by the end of April. So it sounds like his rehab is going a bit slower than expected. Lindsay should still be back by training camp, but the missed time this offseason isn't ideal for the former undrafted free agent. He's been going in the 4th round in March FFPC best-ball drafts.
The Rams have matched the offer sheet RB Malcolm Brown signed with the Lions as a restricted free agent, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. It's a 2-year, $3.25 million contract, not enough money to necessarily steer what else the team does at the position. But the move might make re-signing unrestricted free agent C.J. Anderson less likely. Brown has logged just 128 total carries and 18 receptions through 4 pro seasons. He'd look a lot more attractive this year as Todd Gurley's lead backup if that's how he enters 2019 fantasy football drafts, though.
The Saints are set to sign TE Jared Cook, according to NFL Network. No word yet on the terms of the deal. Cook is coming off the most productive season of his career, posting a 68-896-6 line in Oakland and finishing 5th among TEs in PPR points. He might not see another 101 targets this year behind target hog Michael Thomas in what's become a run-heavy Saints offense. But Cook could be even more efficient with his targets going from Derek Carr to Drew Brees. He looks like a rock-solid TE1 with top-5 upside.


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text:
Desperate Deniers Part 8: Conman Anthony Watts goes for broke at WUWT
Anthony Watts is getting reckless again. No, not restless, but reckless. He's making a stand as a hard core wanna-be professional science disinformer who has become unhinged in his desperate denial.
Poor Anthony will never make it as a professional climate disinformer. The elite of the disinformation world see him as a useful idiot at best, but don't use him much these days. That's putting people like Pat Michaels in the "elite disinformer" category, with organisations like the George C Marshall Institute. They are followed by freelancers such as Marc Morano (I think he's landed a paid gig, but I class him as a freelancer), who'll say anything he's paid to say at double speed while wearing a cheesy grin. Then there are the "science" hacks for the GOP - Judith Curry, followed a long way behind (and dropping) by the unChristian duo from Alabama. Then there are all the faded jaded right wing lobby groups stacked with old white conservative men, getting older and probably fewer year by year. The pseudo-religious anti-environment groups don't count for much, but they do manage to wheedle funds from various vested interests. Way down the bottom of the disinformation totem pole are the climate conspiracy bloggers, Anthony Watts, Jo "Nova" and her rocket scientist from Luna Park and a straggle raggle taggle of other wanna-bes. Some of them are managing to stay a few inches ahead of "Steve Goddard"/Tony Heller and the twit, Tom Nelson.
Today Anthony Watts has a second article about something that former US Vice President, Al Gore may or may not have said back in 2006 (archived here). Anthony was delighted to see his previous version of the same thing all over various dumb blogs. He thinks he's on a winner but I'd guess he's despondent that it didn't hit the mainstream media. (In your dreams, Anthony.) He didn't write this all by himself (he rarely does). He says he pinched it from a blog on some financial website and added some embellishments of his own.
Drastic measures are needed
Now if Gore did say what Anthony claims he said, Gore was spot on. Below in bold italics is the paragraph that Anthony Watts went nuts over, with some of the surrounding text from an AP article on CBS News from 2006, which Anthony didn't include:
The former vice president came to town for the premiere of "An Inconvenient Truth," a documentary chronicling what has become his crusade since losing the 2000 presidential election: Educating the masses that global warming is about to toast our ecology and our way of life.
Gore has been saying it for decades, since a college class in the 1960s convinced him that greenhouse gases from oil, coal and other carbon emissions were trapping the sun's heat in the atmosphere, resulting in a glacial meltdown that could flood much of the planet.
Americans have been hearing it for decades, wavering between belief and skepticism that it all may just be a natural part of Earth's cyclical warming and cooling phases.
And politicians and corporations have been ignoring the issue for decades, to the point that unless drastic measures to reduce greenhouse gases are taken within the next 10 years, the world will reach a point of no return, Gore said.
He sees the situation as "a true planetary emergency."
"If you accept the truth of that, then nothing else really matters that much," Gore said in an interview with The Associated Press. "We have to organize quickly to come up with a coherent and really strong response, and that's what I'm devoting myself to."
You'll notice that the only words in quotation marks are the name of the climate film and the words "a true planetary emergency". The para that Anthony has picked out is not in quotation marks, suggesting it's not a direct quote.
Anthony's adopting a variation of the tactic known as quote-mining. One of his variations is that it doesn't appear to be a direct quote from Gore. The other is that Anthony has decided to misinterpret what was written. You might argue that the second part (misinterpretation) isn't a variation. Misrepresentation is the whole purpose of quote-mining after all. But in this case, Anthony has deliberately misinterpreted the section he quoted. He's written it all in black and white, so everyone can see he's misinterpreted it. He probably knows that most of his fans will applaud him for it.
What Anthony is doing is playing a silly word game with the "within the next 10 years" part. That is, Anthony is attaching the "point of no return" to imply Gore said that the world will collapse in ten years. That's not what was written nor, I expect, is what was meant. The way I read it is the way that scientific reports portray the situation. That drastic measures must be taken, within ten years, to reduce greenhouse gas emissions or the world will reach a point of no return. And it has already passed tipping points in some areas, such as the collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet is likely unstoppable now, probably the slowing of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, certainly sea level rise (though we may still have some control over how quickly it rises), ocean acidification and more.
The paragraph was apt then and is even more so today. Some action has been taken in the interim, most particularly the agreement reached at COP21. In addition, in many places renewables are on a sharp increase, coal is on the decline (being replaced by gas and renewables and nuclear). We've still got a long way to go though. And in some developing countries, coal use is rapidly rising.
As if Anthony's misinterpretation wasn't bad enough, he's headed full bore into a Gish gallop of denierisms. Here are some of the points he made, together with climate reality (I thought that term is appropriate, given the subject).
Yes, Anthony - 2015 was the hottest year on record, so far
2015 was the hottest year on record, following a previous hottest year on record - 2014. Anthony Watts tries to deny it. To do so he has to jump up into the cold sky a few kilometres to find a part of the planet where the temperature hasn't warmed as much, or not according to the satellite data. It's a wonder he didn't leap up into the stratosphere to claim "it's cooling"! He wrote:
Satellite data says that Earth hasn't warmed in nearly 20 years. Yes, 2015 supposedly "smashed" the previous temperature record. But actually it was the third-warmest year on record according to satellites.
Not only does Anthony want people to ignore the warmer than ever oceans, and the warmer than ever sea and land surfaces, he expects everyone to look up into the sky, where only about one per cent of the heat is going. He also neglects to tell his readers that up in the lower troposphere, each of the past three months were the hottest ever for those respective months, and the hottest ever combined October to December,
What about his "nearly 20 years"? He's way off. I don't think he'd be able to say truthfully that "it hasn't warmed in nearly one month". This is what thermometer data shows is happening on the surface, which we share with Anthony Watts and his dismal band of deniers. Twenty years ago it was 0.41 °C (0.74 °F) colder than it is now:
Figure 1 | Global mean surface temperature 1880 to 2015. Data source: GISS NASA
This is what the keepers of the upper air (lower troposphere) satellite records are reporting. Twenty years ago it was 0.2 °C (0.74 °F) colder than now:
Figure 2 | Global mean atmospheric temperature (lower troposphere) 1979 to 2015. Data sources: UAH and RSS
Anthony is devious and deceitful - so what's new? He wrote:
Claims of "hottest ever" in 2015 have been due in part to a strong El Niño in 2015 (which even climate scientist Dr. Richard Betts grudgingly admits to) and some statistical sleight of hand by NOAA to boost temperatures.
First of all, if warming was just from El Nino, then why were past El Nino years not as hot? Some of them were as strong or stronger than this one is.
Then there's his fraud allegation. Anthony has frequently accused NOAA scientists of fraud and he's not about to stop now. It's he who is guilty, not the scientists. NOAA updated its dataset. It updated ERSST to version 4, which wasn't all that different from ERSSTv3b in recent decades at least.
Deniers make any excuse to dispute the data, unless it's adjusted downward (like UAH). They don't care that there is very little difference between all the surface data sets. Look at where NOAA sits in terms of trend since the last time there was a trend change, around 1970. It's second lowest. Not that Anthony Watts would admit to that. He's a con man. A teller of tall tales. He doesn't want to spoil his fiction.
Table 1 | Trend per decade since 1970 for global mean surface temperature. Data sources: GISS NASA, UK Met Office, NOAA,Berkeley Earth:
The trend for NOAA is below Berkeley Earth, which uses a totally different method from any of the others to calculate global surface temperature. They are all different from each other. Even NOAA and GISS, which use similar (not identical) data, process it differently, which you can tell because the trends are slighly different.
Initial claim lines up ... WTF?
Moving on - remember how the other day, Anthony made a spectacular mess of things? He wrote a very long article accusing NOAA of all sorts of shenanigans. He ended up striking lots of it out, so it's a real Kenji's breakfast. Anthony couldn't get it through his thick skull that at the turn of the century NOAA revised its estimate of actual temperature of the planet (from around 16.4 °C to 13.9 °C) in line with the newly published estimate in Jones et al (1999). Today he glosses over the fact that it was he, not the NOAA or Seth Borenstein, who was wrong the other day, and says some nonsense about the NOAA's "initial claim lining up with the satellite record".
Anthony wrote (I wonder did he finally figure it out by reading it here?):
They said in 1997, that the current absolute temperature of the Earth was warmer by several degrees that today, but they've since changed their methodology and say that's no longer the case…however, their initial claim lines up with what we see in the satellite record above about 1997 and 1998 when the supersized El Niño happened.
No, they didn't "change their methodology". All they did was change the estimate of the actual temperature of the planet.
And what the heck is he trying to say about "initial claim lines up ... with the satellite record"? He's saying that the initial estimate of average global temperature (16.4 °C) "lines up" with the satellite record! The air temperature of the lower troposphere is many degrees lower than the surface. If it's 15 °C at the surface it could be approaching minus 5 °C at 3.000 metres. It gets mighty cold up there. (Has Anthony never been up in the mountains?) He's confusing the change in the estimate of actual temperature (16.4 °C to 13.9 °C) with the the impact of the 97/98 El Nino on the lower troposphere temperature. You can't do that. Sheesh he's a dimwit. To think he claims to know something about weather and climate.
What he should be comparing is the difference in temperatures from year to year. Like this:
Which looks like this:
Table 2 (upper) and Figure 3 (lower) | Global mean temperature anomaly from 1981-2010 mean. Years 1995 to 1999. Data sources: NOAA, UAH and RSS
The surface and lower troposphere are not so different, except for the El Niño years. So it's no surprise that Anthony doesn't put up numbers or charts. I don't think Anthony "meteorologist (ret'd)" Watts even knows that highs and lows like El Niños, La Niñas and volcanic cooling are exaggerated in the lower troposphere. And maybe he doesn't know that El Niño shows up on the surface before it shows up in the lower troposphere. Look at 1997 across the three data sets.
Anthony complains that Republicans branded "global warming" as "climate change"
His next gripe is that Frank Luntz, a Republican consultant to George Bush, advised him to avoid the term "global warming" and use "climate change" instead. Of course Anthony won't admit that it was Republicans who insisted on using the term, even though he knows it to be the case. (He does read HotWhopper and other blogs.)
Both terms have been around forever in the scientific literature. Global warming is the rise in global temperature, climate change is what happens when there is global warming (or global cooling) - patterns of temperature, precipitation and other aspects of climate change as a result of global warming.
Anthony should know all that. I'd say he just pretends not to, to please his readers (he is aiming to attract the most ignorant of the ignorant). However with the big gaffes he's been making, I wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't know what global warming or climate change means.
Anthony rehashes a lot of old denier lies
One of his lies, which he keeps repeating even though he must know it's not true, is a claim that global warming won't result in extreme weather events. He wrote:
Even the IPCC said that there is no link of climate to extreme weather, and the prestigious journal Nature said in 2012: "Better models are needed before exceptional events can be reliably linked to global warming."
No Anthony. The latest AR5 IPCC report points to floods, heavy precipitation, drought, fires, insect damage, heat waves and more. And wow - did you notice his about face? Suddenly Nature is "prestigious". That's a complete no-no in deniersville, particularly the "climate hoax" village called WUWT. Notice how he quote-mines a sentence from a paper from three years ago, and ignores all the work of the past three years, like the BAMS special supplements on extreme events.
Anthony tells fibs about Arctic sea ice
Anthony is going great guns. Lie after lie after fib after deception. This time he tells the lie that he's told so often before about Mr Gore "predicting" that sea ice would disappear by whenever. As Anthony well knows, these weren't Gore's predictions. They were references Gore made to the predictions of other people. Here is the segment of his Nobel Peace Prize speech. He was reporting what others had said, mentioning 22 years as well as 7 years. From his 2007 Nobel Lecture:
Last September 21, as the Northern Hemisphere tilted away from the sun, scientists reported with unprecedented distress that the North Polar ice cap is "falling off a cliff." One study estimated that it could be completely gone during summer in less than 22 years. Another new study, to be presented by U.S. Navy researchers later this week, warns it could happen in as little as 7 years.
Seven years from now.
And this from a newspaper report from 2009, when he is reported to have referred to "some of the models" and work of the US Naval Postgraduate School:
"Some of the models suggest that there is a 75 percent chance that the entire north polar ice cap during some of the summer months will be completely ice-free within the next five to seven years," Gore said.
Afterward his office clarified his statement, saying he meant nearly ice-free, because ice would be expected to survive in island channels and other locations.
Gore cited new scientific work at the U.S. Naval Postgraduate School. The Navy relies on its research to plan submarine voyages to the poles. The computer modeling there stresses the "volumetric" and looks at both the surface extent of ice and its thickness.
Gore may have been referring to work done by Wieslaw Maslowski, such as this presentation from NPS in June 2008, after the (then) record low of 2007.
In any case, it wasn't Gore's independent prediction either time. He was reporting the research of scientists.
There's more on the Arctic. Anthony put up a chart and slashed a red line across it, not caring that he was going through both winter and summer ice, and pronounced:
Even more inconvenient, it seems the Arctic ice has reached a new stable baseline, and has a "pause" of it's own going on. In the University of Illinois Cryosphere today graph below, note the nearly flat trend line in recent years since 2007:
Nearly flat trend line? Oh boy. That's as bad as choosing the inordinately hot El Nino years of 1997/98 as the start year for plotting lower troposphere temperatures. In any case, it's wrong. In September 2012 there was a lot less ice than there was in 2007. Here is a chart of Arctic summer sea ice for the minimum month, September, with a linear trend line for the entire record:
Figure 4 | Arctic Sea Ice mean for September. 1979 to 2015. Data source: NSIDC
A zillion errors at WUWT
Anthony made much of the fact that a judge in the UK made some scientific "judgements" about the film An Inconvenient Truth, identifying nine errors (out of all the hundreds of facts discussed). I don't think the judge was 100% correct either :)
The filthy black WUWT pot calls
the clean shiny Gore kettle "black"
Now go through this single article of Anthony's and count all the errors and include the lies. Then add all the errors and lies in the WUWT comments, then multiply that by the number of articles Anthony has published. That way you can put the "nine errors" in An Inconvenient Truth into perspective.
Hint: the ratio of errors + lies at WUWT to "errors" in An Inconvenient Truth would be about a zillion to one. Approximately. A rough estimate only. I wouldn't be surprised if some diligent person found it was two zillion to one. Or more.
Have you read enough? Anthony Watts is both immensely stupid and couldn't tell the truth if his life depended on it. That's because his income from donations, subscriptions to his non-functioning secretive "Open Atmosphere Society", and ad revenue depends on him feeding lies to a wilfully ignorant audience. He'd be out on the street if he didn't weave conspiracy theories, libel scientists and politicians, and instead presented facts accurately.
As I said, enough is enough. Anthony's almost last paragraph was:
Simply put: Mr. Gore is a bald faced liar. Why does anybody still listen to him?
Let me fix that for him. Al Gore has worked tirelessly, selflessly and given generously for many, many years to help us shift to a clean, safe future. On the other hand:
Simply put: Anthony Watts is a bald faced liar. Why does anybody still listen to him?
A wistful thought
When I see an appalling litany of lies like this one from Anthony Watts, I wistfully wish that someone would sue the pants off him.
I know, it's wishful thinking.
Perhaps he'll get his comeuppance in the Climate Trials. I can imagine Anthony old and saggy and grey and broken, crammed into a 6 x 10 cell (sticky and hot, no air-conditioning). Sharing his cell would be Marc Morano squealing nineteen to the dozen over the top of Roy Spencer's repetitive mumbling "nazis", and five bleeding heart pinko warmunist liberals (who got there by pure misfortune) chanting "Om" from dawn to midnight. By that stage a "cool" summer's day could be 54 °C (130 °F) in the shade and 99% humidity.
The "thoughts" show that Anthony has firmly anchored himself in nutsville. I expect he's laid down foundations so deep that he won't be leaving the funny farm any time soon.
BTW, I almost always finish the article before I start reading the comments, as I did this time. I say that, because I found a denier whose thinking I concur with - or at least in part (I'll leave you to work out which part.) Not that I imagine that Al Gore would want to waste his time with a half-baked climate conspiracy blogger. He's devoting his life to more worthwhile pursuits. Cassandra's thought was:
I wonder why Gore hasn't sued anybody, following so many articles such as this? Someone should push him into it, and then the truth will be massively aired, throughout the world. Then just think of all the counter-claims against Gore et al from individuals, companies and whole countries!!!
I'm constantly amazed by the misinformation conspiracy theorists grab hold of and cling to as if their life depended on it. And for some of them it would, just not in the way they think. This is way off topic. ferdberple wrote:
January 25, 2016 at 2:13 pm (excerpt)
The bad science over saturated fat is the direct cause of the diabetes epidemic in the US today. Driven by politicians it has killed more people than global warming ever will.
Mohatdebos compares centuries of multiple scientific disciplines, built up by probably hundreds of thousands of people, and supported by zillions of gigabytes of observations and evidence, with the beliefs of a tiny and weird cult. Weird!
MSM had a great time making fun of Harold Camping's prediction based on Rapture Theory that the world would end in 2011, yet the high priests of Mann-made global warming are never challenged on their prophecies of impending doom.
Leon Brozyna asks a very good question, only about the wrong people:
January 25, 2016 at 12:37 pm (excerpt)
Why do con men succeed?
Mumbles McGuirck thinks a winter snow storm means that global warming isn't happening:
Can everyone in the Great White North (i.e. north of the FL/GA border) go out in a snow bank and take a photo of yourself holding a sign saying "Al Gore : Where the Hell is my Global Warming". Then post it on FB, Twitter, etc. using #GoresBustedForecast ? Thank you.
RD is very grateful for having someone who'll feed him exactly what he wants to hear. As Tom Peterson remarked to a Stoat the other day (about the wilfully ignorant): As Neil deGrasse Tyson says, "If your Personal Beliefs deny what's objectively true about the world, then they're more accurately called Personal Delusions."
AW is truly deserving of our gratitude for fighting back against these mendacious twits. I'm sure he could be doing other work for personal profit.
I wonder if gallopingcamel would vote for Donald Trump?
Why are people who lie about climate such as Al Gore and Bill Nye rich while I have to work my butt off to put food on the table?
It may have something to do with the elites who control both political parties so you can bet that I will vote for someone who run the USA for the benefit of "The People" rather than bankers.
Memo exposes Bush's new green strategy - article by Oliver Burkeman in the Guardian, 2003
2006: Al Gore does Sundance - article on CBS news, January 2006
The Desperate Denier series - January 2016 (links to all in the series)
Anthony Watts does an "algoreisfat", making it too easy... - January 2016
Anthony Watts spends hours denying reality at WUWT - article with references to AR5 IPCC segments on extreme weather - October 2013
Labels: Al Gore, Anthony Watts, arctic sea ice, El Niño, gish gallop, hottest year on record
On the subject of Watt's cons. He also this week had a photo of a 'recent' frozen Swedish wind turbine.
Turns out it was 2 years old and was part of a test site. I believe most the Swedish turbines actually have heated blades for in case they get iced up.
Sou January 26, 2016 at 7:38 PM
That's poor form. It reminds me of his Antarctic stamp blunder and UHI in Antarctica:D.
PG January 26, 2016 at 7:34 PM
Fantastic response Sou.
Somebody should sue him. You'll remember In 2014 I threatened to own his house in Chico CA and he immediately crumbled deleting all his and dbstealy's defamatory comments about me.
Remember his fake Paul Krugman piece that was passed off as a NYT article? That could easily have drawn an action in copyright breach.
Many practitioners have been defamed by this desperately unattractive human being and one day one of them will own his house in Chico (and hopefully convert it into a Museum of Dumb Deception and Malicious Conduct)
Also how about his highly insulting dig at Betts after all that respect BS he wrote after meeting him in Bristol, then publishing Richard's (too) kind comments re that meeting and even an article Bett's wrote re Seepage in May last year?
Tadaaa January 26, 2016 at 8:59 PM
I suspect they will all start playing the "victim" card before too long
cRR Kampen January 26, 2016 at 11:10 PM
"Marc Morano (I think he's landed a paid gig, but I class him as a freelancer), who'll say anything he's paid to say at double speed while wearing a cheesy grin."
I saw an interview with Morano on Dutch tele a couple of weeks ago in which he plainly states that is exactly what he is doing.
Tadaaa January 27, 2016 at 12:19 AM
Yes he is quite clear on this
In Merchants of Doubt he jokes that he is "not a scientist although I play one on TV occasionally"
And he also admits that they - the contrarians, don't do any science themselves, the sole aim is to sow confusion and delay any action on AGW
He does not mince his words and is pretty clear on the tactics
Phil Clarke January 26, 2016 at 11:42 PM
What Anthony is doing is playing a silly word game with the "within the next 10 years" part. That is, Anthony is attaching the "point of no return" to imply Gore said that the world will collapse in ten years.
This is a key misrepresentation. A vehicle travelling at 70mph has a stopping distance of about 106m (excuse the mixed units). Thus if a driver perceives a blocked road 116m ahead he has about 10m of road in which to start braking. Gore's warning was akin to saying unless we brake now, we're in trouble. Watts stupid response , (well a small part of it, jeez, you'd need a whole library) is like saying because we did not hit the brakes, and we have yet to smash into a wall, Gore is a liar.
It's a simplistic analogy, but then it's a dumb argument.
Huma Kuvala January 27, 2016 at 2:54 AM
In 2013 Morano received US$ 163,204 from 'the Committee for a Constructive Tomorrow' (CFACT) for his role as that organizations' Director of Communications. The fact that in that role Morano made more than the 'Exec Director & Treasurer (Craig Rucker; US$ 115,146) and the 'President & Chairman' (David Rothbard; US$ 119,920) indicates just how important the role of H̶e̶a̶d̶ ̶o̶f̶ ̶P̶r̶o̶p̶a̶g̶a̶n̶d̶a̶ Director of Communications really is to CFACT. http://tinyurl.com/zw7moug
Marc January 27, 2016 at 1:43 PM
That restores some of my faith in humanity. That to behave so immorally, you have to pay them 10 times as much as someone of their quality would otherwise make.
Mark January 27, 2016 at 6:54 AM
Considering that the PDO has probably flipped back into a positive phase and that we are in for a spurt of warming, it's fun to speculate what the state of climate denial will be in a few years from now.
Brandon R. Gates January 27, 2016 at 12:26 PM
What Anthony is doing is playing a silly word game with the "within the next 10 years" part. That is, Anthony is attaching the "point of no return" to imply Gore said that the world will collapse in ten years. That's not what was written nor, I expect, is what was meant.
Clearly Anthony is building another strawman here, and is thus guilty of doing exactly what he accuses Mr Gore of doing: telling fibs. Though I'm sure Anthony would say he was just embellishing. Or perhaps simply taking artistic license: https://archive.is/HPmMk#selection-563.0-601.7
Me, quotemine? Never.
So about that. Here's the bit from the AP/CBS article about "An Inconvenient Truth":
As you point out, not a direct quote. But I have seen the movie, once, and I don't have much doubt the paraphrase is true to Mr Gore's actual comments. I did read the entire news article attempting to determine what "point of no return" specifically meant, and some sort of provenance for the one-decade estimate. (Anthony's first article on this a few days back included pretty much the same excerpt your post here does.) Couldn't find one. Maybe Gore expanded on (not embellished) that premise to the AP reporter in the interview, maybe not.
My point is, I didn't like the way it was written, even in full context, because it wasn't specific in a way that is testable, but was specific about a time frame. Scientifically useless in other words, and doomed to be "falsified" as soon as it was printed; as well as something I think that the AP and CBS could reasonably be held to account for publishing no matter who it was they were paraphrasing, whether or not they did so accurately.
It was never meant to be testable in a specific quantitative sense. However it will be testable in retrospect to some extent. (People will look back and say "if only we'd done more in the early 2000s, we'd have been able to prevent or slow xyz tipping point.)
It was meant to give the sense of urgency that is required, that if we don't get our act together the following will happen:
CO2 will accumulate so that we use up the budget sooner
We will find it more difficult to wean ourselves off fossil fuel the longer we take to start.
That is, we need to keep working to shift to renewables, more efficient use of energy etc, so that we don't find ourselves in a situation where there's only 30 GT left in the budget but our energy economy is still 70% fossil fuel based.
It is a similar time frame to the Critical Decade paper of the Climate Council, which came out five years later in 2011, just shifted back five years. The authors at the time said that what we do this decade (2011 to 2020) will determine the warming for the next two generations, among other things.
That is, what we do now will determine what happens decades (and centuries) down the track.
IMO it hasn't been falsified. If anything, with the reports of the changes we're bringing about (eg the "unstoppable" WAIS collapse), one could argue it's already been proven true.
The longer we take to get the energy shift going in earnest, the harder it will be to stay within the CO2 budget down the track.
Brandon R. Gates January 27, 2016 at 5:18 PM
It was meant to give the sense of urgency that is required ...
Indeed, and I absolutely agreed with the urgency he was advocating for all of the same reasons you detail in your reply. There's a difference in how I think and talk about that than Gore does. Maybe I can illustrate in the abstract:
Gore: If we don't do X within ten years, then Y will happen and it will be irreversible.
me: If we don't start doing X now, there's a chance Y will happen, we don't know exactly when we might expect it to happen, and might not know right away that it has, and might not be able to stop it once it's clear that it is happening.
My construction (which is basically just the precautionary principle) gets hammered all the same because it lacks specific timing, includes all sorts of caveats and because Judith Curry has reinforced how wrongly the "let's wait until we know for sure" crowd think about uncertainty. It is, however, consistent with my level of understanding of the science and doesn't require me to learn a bunch more to be a defensible argument.
Along those lines, Phil Clarke's analogy about the braking distance of a car is a good one, and I've used similar. Another one I like is that seismologists can't tell us exactly when the next Big One is going to hit, best they can do is estimate the probability of a major quake over the next 30 years. That they don't know for sure is not "proof" that the theory of plate tectonics has been "falsified", and only a fool would think that it's therefore a good idea to scrimp on building codes so that we have more cash for "adaptation".
In sum, I'm suggesting that there are ways to get across the sense urgency by expressing more confidence about the past than about the future, and since we have empirical evidence of the past but not the future, being on much more solid footing doing it.
Sou, PS:
Yes, exactly. I think really that's the best argument of all.
Too many "mights", Brandon. There are already a lot of things happening that are irreversible on any reasonable time frame (decades to centuries to millennia).
As Susan Solomon wrote - irreversible doesn't mean unstoppable, which is the message Gore and the Climate Council were sending with their urgency re the time frame.
Global warming has happened and is continuing. The ice sheets are melting and will continue to do so for millenia. Sea rise likewise. Climate change all over likewise. Ocean acidificaton likewise.
They are all "have happened and will continue", no "might" about it. It's up to us to decide how much we want the world to change (for better or worse, in the near and far term), and how quickly we want that change (ie do we want seas to rise 2 metres this century or would we prefer 2 metres over two centuries) :(
Brandon R. Gates January 28, 2016 at 6:51 AM
Too many "mights", Brandon.
You might be right ... :)
There are already a lot of things happening that are irreversible on any reasonable time frame (decades to centuries to millennia).
Sure. Ice sheet melt and by extention SLR trends don't stop on a dime on the order of centuries to millennia. Bintanja et al. (2008) has been my go-to reference for that, I'm sure there are numerous other more recent studies -- IIRC one from last year is telling us that Larsen B ice shelf could go anywhere between tomorrow and a decade.
It's the things we're less sure of that I'm most concerned about.
I don't want to stubbornly stand on point in perpetuity [1], so let me end it by saying there's more I agree with both Mr Gore and you about. I thought you made a particularly good point that the movie is far more factually grounded than the average WUWT article and I would probably do well to adjust my overall view of the film accordingly. Cheers.
[1] My housemate pointed to this phrase and said, "bullshit" ...
THE CLIMATE WARS January 28, 2016 at 9:20 AM
That Al is far better seconded than Anthony is no reason to indulge the considerable powers of stump speech hyperbole he acquired from his father and his divinity school.preceptors.
The pathology of the climate policy debate resides more in the deployment of competant PR flacks than woebegone amateurs
Russell,
My housemate was right, I really don't want to drop it, dammit all.
Clearly we have a PR problem with the likes of the WHUTTers, and just as clearly nothing short of Armageddon is going to convince them ... if then. Maybe better PR convinces more of the undecideds, and that's as good an argument as I can think of for reducing hyperbole and emotional appeals and tightening up the scientific quality of the reporting and op-eds.
I've mentioned over at Eli's a time or two before (ATTP's as well) that I think the main reason policy implementation has languished comes down to pro-mitigation politicians who are still engaged in politics not making proposals that their friends across the aisle can accept because their voter base wouldn't accept it. They would just as likely say that they can't make the kinds of horse-trades I'm thinking of because their own voter base won't let them.
Maybe better PR can help with that latter problem.
How many "maybes" above? Only two -- fewer than in my post dealing more with the science. Interesting.
gallopingcamel January 29, 2016 at 4:52 PM
This has to be classy blog given that Russell Seitz dispenses his pearls of wisdom here.
In the comments above someone asks:
"I wonder if gallopingcamel would vote for Donald Trump?"
Yes I would vote for the Donald but he is not the only one I could support:
https://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2016/01/27/ambush-averted/#comment-570265
Well, there you go. Another example of the double standards of deniers.
That comment is in relation to the one in the article, where I noticed that gallopingcamel wrote:
Neither Bill Nye or Al Gore make it onto the Forbes 400 list, while Trump is #121 at an insane $4.5 billion. (Al Gore is only worth $300m and Bill Nye a "piddly" $6.5m :).
If you're a rich elite and a denier liar you're okay in poor struggling gallopingcamel's book.
Deniers worship money not science, and have upside-down values - if you can call valuing immorality a "value".
bill January 29, 2016 at 5:37 PM
Yep, Trump himself predicted he'd be a hit with the Right Wing Authoritarian set years ago.
Oh, and stupid people, of course.
Catmando January 29, 2016 at 9:48 PM
Not to forget that Trump inherited a pile of dollars (so didn't have to struggle) and four of his businesses have gone bankrupt (though he used legally protected his personal wealth) which makes one wonder why anyone would trust him with the nation's wealth.
Millicent January 29, 2016 at 10:10 PM
"This has to be classy blog given that Russell Seitz dispenses his pearls of wisdom here."
Sou can't choose who comments here, as your presence demonstrates. But Sou has been making unkind remarks that I would have thought any WUWT fan would hasten to 'correct'. Your silence on that speaks volumes even if what you do choose to post is remarkably sterile.
Tadaaa January 30, 2016 at 2:01 AM
a billionaire was once ask "what is the easiest why to make a small fortune"
he replied "start with a large one"
bill January 30, 2016 at 10:15 AM
Aussies should remember 'How do you create a small business? Give Warwick Fairfax a large one."
Morgan June 19, 2016 at 3:39 PM
Whoever wrote this blog is a fool. To defend Al Gore's ridiculous movie by saying there are only 9 errors for every zillions true facts. Good god, what a fool. I watched that movie, thought it was science fiction on the level of Godzilla.
Sou June 19, 2016 at 3:50 PM
One of the five telltale techniques of climate science denial is the logical fallacy.
Jammy Dodger June 19, 2016 at 3:53 PM
I expect when you watched Godzilla you thought it was a documentary and didn't spot any errors at all.
bill June 19, 2016 at 5:05 PM
BTP. Better Trolls Please.
Just plain evil: Anthony Watts and PopTech sink to...
Jim Steele's "yellow journalism" at WUWT, and coas...
Desperate deniers Part 9: Patrick J Michael's path...
Desperate Deniers Part 8: Conman Anthony Watts goe...
It's the snow not the cold, Eric Worrall
Anthony Watts gets into a dither with global weath...
Desperate Deniers Part 7: Roy Spencer PhD tells fi...
Desperate Deniers Part 6: David Whitehouse sez it'...
Desperate Deniers Part 5 - Anthony "surface statio...
Desperate Deniers Part 4: Anthony Watts is shame-p...
More wild weather for the USA
Desperate Deniers Part 3: Rud Istvan mixes up GIST...
Desperate Deniers Part 2: David Middleton fakes sa...
Desperate Deniers Part 1: Stephen Hodgart from Uni...
I publish in Nature, sez Bartleby @wattsupwiththat...
Watching the global thermometer - year to date GIS...
2015 is the hottest year on record by a massive 0....
Anthony Watts is stumped by snowballs, volcanoes, ...
It's unacceptable: Forty two years after Kellog an...
Anthony Watts heroically defends cool satellites
David Middleton is hot and bothered by the spurt a...
Ice age deferred stymies David Middleton at WUWT
Anthony Watts can't get enough conspiracy theories...
From C.R. Dickson: A retired chemist's view of glo...
Telegraphing climate facts is unhelpful to Eric Wo...
The surface compared with the lower troposphere an...
Some good news from WUWT - climate change is getti...
Only 8% of Americans think climate change is "natu...
Central England temperature - no ice age in sight
Three hottest evers in succession for lower tropos...
Denier weirdness: It hasn't warmed since 2017!
Greenland really has been melting, can someone tel...
El Nino, the California drought and Sierra Nevada ...
Anthony Watts does an "algoreisfat", making it too...
Bob Tisdale won't take on Mark Boslough's bet
Look at all the blog hits - that means I must be r...
Botched white and grey matter with Eric Worrall at...
WUWT blogger Eric Worrall flits from Montreal to P...


Avrey Wolverton homered twice for Howell at Brighton.
Avrey Wolverton hit two home runs and was 3-for-4 with six RBI for Howell in a 14-0 softball victory Monday at Brighton.
Maddie Gillett drove in four runs and AJ Militello was 3-for-4 with two RBI. Howell's second through fifth hitters combined to go 9-for-14 with 13 RBI. Molly Carney struck out five batters in three no-hit innings before Wolverton came in to strike out four while allowing one hit in two innings.
Leading 2-0 after two innings, Howell (2-1) broke it open with five in the third and five in the fourth.
Delaney Robeson was 2-for-3 with a home run and four RBI for Hartland (2-1), which scored eight runs in the first inning and seven in the third.
Sam Nagel was 3-for-3 with three RBI and Brooke Cowan was 3-for-5 for Hartland.
Lilly Prescott was 4-for-5 with seven RBI in the twinbill for Pinckney in its season opener.
Caitlyn Tomshany was 6-for-7, Megan Miller was 5-for-6, Shawna Wallace was 3-for-6 with four RBI, Ashley Fransee was 3-for-4 with a home run and three RBI, and Alyssa Koukis was 4-for-5 with three RBI.
Sydney Pease allowed one hit, no walks and struck out 10 in four innings in the first game. Tomshany gave up one hit and struck out five in three innings in the nightcap.
Aidan Rockel's two-run single capped a three-run top of the seventh inning for Hartland, which trailed 3-2 entering the inning. Zach Schmidt had two hits for the Eagles.
Dalton Knightley was 4-for-4 with four RBI in the first game for Pinckney (4-2).
Dakota Avedisian was 3-for-3 with three RBI, while Nick Cortez, Al Thorington and Bryce White each had two hits for the Pirates.
In the second game, Ty Abner struck out nine batters in 3⅔ innings. Jack Tratchet, Zach Geyer and Tyler Horvath had two hits.
Sophie Mondro and Cat Kopchia scored five goals each for Brighton (4-1).
Paige Falk had four goals and two assists, while Amanda Granader had three goals for the Bulldogs.


when wee little monsters must return to earthen graves below. "
Halloween has come early! Please come and join us for a fun and quirky six course degustation where Billy Law (A Table For Two), Karen Low (Citrus and Candy), and Phuoc Huynh (Phuoc'n Delicious) will spook you with sweet delights.
Tickets are extremely limited, and there will be only two sessions, max of 30 people per session. For early birds, take $10 OFF by using keyword 'GHOULISH' to book tickets before 1st Oct 2012.
Please arrive at least 20 minutes prior to each session.
Tickets: $80/p.p. per session (degustation only).
Early bird: $10 discount by entering keyword 'GHOULISH'. Offer ends 1st Oct 2012.
** This is a special dinner event, and due to the volume unfortunately we will not able to offer any special dietary requirements.


Last year I found these pjs at TCP for $1 so I thought it would be cute for Tanner and his baby brother/sister to have matching. This was the first night that it was really cold and I just had to take pictures of them in their matching pjs.
those are soooo cute and a great deal to boot! Gotta love it!!!


I was privileged to attend the judging of the "Pickles and Preserves" section of the Sydney Royal Easter Show and was asked to provide my input for the judges.
The participants are from 5 divisions of NSW and lower QLD and are all hard-working CWA ladies that make amazing chutneys and relishes for tastings.
The awards are based on the criteria of quality, appearance, and of course, taste! It was great to meet these lovely ladies that are the backbone of Australia's farming community.


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Kent Police Museum preserves and shares material culture and historical evidence from Kent Police's long history, including information relating to the people who have worked for Kent Police.
The Museum is currently closed whilst plans and funding are put in place to create a completely new visitor experience at Faversham Police Station, our new home. All being well, we will open to the public in early 2019.
In the meantime we'll be working on developing physical access to our collections by adding information about each artefact to an electronic database. This is important museum work and will help to answer some of the many enquiries we receive from the public.


[22PacRimLPolyJ469] China's Foreign Invested Partnership Enterprise Law: the Lifeless or Sleeping Dragon?
Abstract: Investors and the Chinese government tout the March 2010 authorization of the Foreign Invested Partnership as an exciting new method for foreign investment in China. However, this comment argues that the Foreign Invested Partnership is not likely to become a vibrant short or long-term platform for foreign direct investment. The historical trends of China's three other vehicles for foreign direct investment from 1979 to the present provide two key conclusions. First, foreign investors will not utilize Foreign Invested Partnerships until they receive detailed implementing regulations from China's central government. Second, support or restrictions from the Chinese government can drive or inhibit use of an investment vehicle. China's Foreign Invested Partnership lacks detailed regulations, and is also not likely to receive them in the future because of increased involvement with local authorities. Additionally, it is not likely to receive support from the Chinese government because of lingering suspicions of the partnership enterprise and an ongoing political transition. Because foreign investors will shy away from this unpredictability, the Foreign Invested Partnership is not likely to be widely utilized in the short or long term. The author recommends that Foreign Invested Partnership proponents overcome these hurdles by pushing for detailed, favorable regulations for equity investment-focused Foreign Invested Partnerships.


text:
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"brilliant", "vibrant and positive atmosphere" "good networking" "I learned a lot!"
"great conference", "a home-run"
The first impressions from the around 230 participants at this year's North Sea Conference is overwhelmingly positive. Besides amazing view of the island Marstrand in the Region Västra Götaland, Sweden, the conference showcased how we can tackle climate change by working together in the North Sea Region. To achieve real change we need to involve different stakeholders at different levels – and that is what the North Sea Conference did. Regional public agencies, young citizens and companies shared their thoughts and initiatives to create a climate-smart society. it manifested how local innovations can contribute in creating game changing, green technology, not only for the North Sea – but worldwide.
How to gear up the region for climate change was the first panel debate on the conference day, moderated by Charlotta Lundström, Head of External Relations, Region Västra Götaland and Christian Byrith, Head of the Interreg North Sea Region Programme.
From left: Christian Byrith, Tomas Kåberger, Katharina Erdmenger, Egon Baldal, Jamie Wylie and Charlotta Lundström
To illustrate what regions can achieve by long-term commitment and action, Helena L Nilsson, Regional Development Director at Region Västra Götaland (SE) presented how the region drives climate action, through the initiative klimat2030. One of the most important parts of the process is the partnership established in the region, involving local, academia, private sector and other actors.
Equally important is the involvement of youth, as an important partner, in the dialogue. To raise that point at the conference, Jamie Wylie, the 2050 Climate Group, was invited providing insights on empowering young people to take the lead on climate change. At the conference, three youth representatives, Isla Young from Aberdeenshire, Merit Katerborg from Groningen and Andrea Alexandra Risholt from Aust-Agder, were invited to the conference, giving their feedback and advice at the end of the conference. Whilst this is a good start, more can be done to achieve real engagement. One of the initiatives mentioned was the decision at the NSC Annual Business Meeting, which they also attended, to recruit a youth advisor (read more about NSC decision on youth participation here).
Partnership is also need to be established beyond the region. Professor Tomas Kåberger, from Chalmers University of Technology, illustrated this by exploring the great potential of renewable energy in the North Sea Region. To fully exploit its potential, Professor Kåberger argued that more cooperation is needed.
The North Sea Commission is an important tool for regions to cooperate and identify common strategic priorities, such in the North Sea Strategy which is currently being renewed (read more about the work here). Adding to this, EU funding play an even more important role to support the cooperation and translate the strategy into action through different projects in the region. This was exemplified by Egon Baldal, Rijkswaterstaat, Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management in the Netherlands, who shared his experience in regional climate adaptation and from the Interreg North Sea Programme, which is the dedicated EU funding for the region.
As the EU funding period is about to come to its end (the current EU long-term budget runs until 2020), discussions about the future of Interreg programmes starts. Katharina Erdmenger, from the German representation to the EU, gave an update on the negotiations at EU-level for a continuation of the Interreg North Sea Programme. The North Sea Commission is a strong advocate for the Programme and just the day before it called on the EU to maintain the programme with sufficient resources to ensure a continued smooth cooperation between the regions (read the Marstrand declaration adopted at the NSC Annual business meeting here).
The panel followed interactive workshops on climate governance, dealing with topics such as citizen engagement, climate adaptation and decarbonizing transport. Participants took an active part in the discussions leading to recommendations that all stakeholders need to dare to set demands for the future and beyond technical innovation; we mostly need social innovation where citizens, specialists and decision makers become aware that all of them need to play their part in out of the box solutions for the future; and that transnational cooperation is the ideal vehicle for combining top-down and bottom-up approaches in climate governance
To bolster the region to lead the green transition, we do not only need good governance and enabling frameworks, but also building business models for the future. To capture the need of developing new innovations and advancing existing solutions, the second panel focused on climate-smart entrepreneurship.
Anna Flysjö, Senior Manager, Life Cycle Sustainability at Arla Foods Denmark, gave the perspective of a big enterprise in the midst of the transformation with the goal to become net carbon neutral by 2050.
Martin Edlund, CEO Minesto, showcased one of those game-changing technologies discussed at the previous debate, that will enable the renewable energy transition by flying subsea kites generating power from currents, a previously unexplored source of energy. Efva Willen, Business Development Manager at SeaTwirl, explained how their unique design can make floating offshore wind farms possible. Both innovations will contribute to increase unlock the potential of renewable energy sources and lowering its cost so that the change in the energy mix needed to become climate neural can happen.
Sofie Allert, CEO Swedish Algae Factory, gave a new perspective on the use and potential of algae, including for solar energy, and skincare products. A perfect example of how existing products can be used for new applications, and in a circular, green way.
The stories of green innovations and entrepreneurship told at the North Sea Conference both amased and inspired the participants. Who thereafter discussed sustainable energy, climate solutions from blue growth and food production in interactive workshops. What came out of the discussions was that: we have to cooperate to change hardware, software, and mindware in order to achieve sustainable mobility and decarbonise transport; to make use of the large untapped Blue Growth potential we need to overcome the first mover problem by creating a regulatory framework that will incentivize investments; and that we need to promote local, sustainable, healthy and climate-positive food production and consumption both at individual and policy level.
Closing the ceremony, president of the North Sea Commission Kerstin Brunnström emphasised the need for more opportunities to meet, to foster cooperation, discussion and action in the North Sea Region.
irmaganibegovic2019-07-08T14:30:26+00:00
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text:
package com.paritytrading.nassau.soupbintcp;

import static com.paritytrading.nassau.soupbintcp.SoupBinTCP.*;

import com.paritytrading.nassau.Clock;
import com.paritytrading.nassau.MessageListener;
import java.io.IOException;
import java.nio.ByteBuffer;
import java.nio.channels.SocketChannel;

/**
 * An implementation of the server side of the protocol.
 */
public class SoupBinTCPServer extends SoupBinTCPSession {

    /*
     * The RX buffer length on the server side must be equal to or greater than
     * the length of the payload in a Login Request packet.
     */
    private static final int MIN_MAX_PAYLOAD_LENGTH = 46;

    private final LoginRequest loginRequest;

    private final ByteBuffer txPayload;

    private final MessageListener listener;

    private final SoupBinTCPServerStatusListener statusListener;

    /**
     * Create a server. The underlying socket channel can be either blocking
     * or non-blocking.
     *
     * @param channel the underlying socket channel
     * @param listener the inbound message listener
     * @param statusListener the inbound status event listener
     */
    public SoupBinTCPServer(SocketChannel channel, MessageListener listener,
            SoupBinTCPServerStatusListener statusListener) {
        this(channel, MAX_PACKET_LENGTH - 1, listener, statusListener);
    }

    /**
     * Create a server. The underlying socket channel can be either blocking
     * or non-blocking.
     *
     * @param channel the underlying socket channel
     * @param maxPayloadLength the maximum inbound message length
     * @param listener the inbound message listener
     * @param statusListener the inbound status event listener
     */
    public SoupBinTCPServer(SocketChannel channel, int maxPayloadLength,
            MessageListener listener, SoupBinTCPServerStatusListener statusListener) {
        this(System::currentTimeMillis, channel, maxPayloadLength, listener, statusListener);
    }

    /**
     * Create a server. The underlying socket channel can be either blocking
     * or non-blocking.
     *
     * @param clock a clock
     * @param channel the underlying socket channel
     * @param maxPayloadLength the maximum inbound message length
     * @param listener the inbound message listener
     * @param statusListener the inbound status event listener
     */
    public SoupBinTCPServer(Clock clock, SocketChannel channel, int maxPayloadLength,
            MessageListener listener, SoupBinTCPServerStatusListener statusListener) {
        super(clock, channel, Math.max(MIN_MAX_PAYLOAD_LENGTH, maxPayloadLength),
                PACKET_TYPE_SERVER_HEARTBEAT);

        this.loginRequest = new LoginRequest();

        /*
         * This built-in payload transmit buffer is used for Login Accepted
         * and Login Rejected packets.
         */
        this.txPayload = ByteBuffer.allocateDirect(30);

        this.listener = listener;

        this.statusListener = statusListener;
    }

    /**
     * Send a Login Accepted packet.
     *
     * @param payload the packet payload
     * @throws IOException if an I/O error occurs
     */
    public void accept(LoginAccepted payload) throws IOException {
        txPayload.clear();
        payload.put(txPayload);
        txPayload.flip();

        send(PACKET_TYPE_LOGIN_ACCEPTED, txPayload);
    }

    /**
     * Send a Login Rejected packet.
     *
     * @param payload the packet payload
     * @throws IOException if an I/O error occurs
     */
    public void reject(LoginRejected payload) throws IOException {
        txPayload.clear();
        payload.put(txPayload);
        txPayload.flip();

        send(PACKET_TYPE_LOGIN_REJECTED, txPayload);
    }

    /**
     * Send an End Of Session packet.
     *
     * @throws IOException if an I/O error occurs
     */
    public void endSession() throws IOException {
        send(PACKET_TYPE_END_OF_SESSION);
    }

    /**
     * Send a Sequenced Data packet.
     *
     * @param buffer a buffer containing the packet payload
     * @throws IOException if an I/O error occurs
     */
    public void send(ByteBuffer buffer) throws IOException {
        send(PACKET_TYPE_SEQUENCED_DATA, buffer);
    }

    @Override
    void heartbeatTimeout() throws IOException {
        statusListener.heartbeatTimeout(this);
    }

    @Override
    void packet(byte packetType, ByteBuffer payload) throws IOException {
        switch (packetType) {
        case PACKET_TYPE_DEBUG:
            break;
        case PACKET_TYPE_LOGIN_REQUEST:
            loginRequest.get(payload);
            statusListener.loginRequest(this, loginRequest);
            break;
        case PACKET_TYPE_UNSEQUENCED_DATA:
            listener.message(payload);
            break;
        case PACKET_TYPE_CLIENT_HEARTBEAT:
            break;
        case PACKET_TYPE_LOGOUT_REQUEST:
            statusListener.logoutRequest(this);
            break;
        default:
            unexpectedPacketType(packetType);
        }
    }

}


On Saturday afternoon, Laure Ferlita and I attended a talk by illustrator Mary GrandPre sponsored by our local arts council. Though GrandPre is probably best known for her illustrations for the Harry Potter books, she's illustrated seven picture books as well as created illustrations for many editorial and advertising clients.
GrandPre was born in South Dakota, but her family moved to Minnesota when she was still a baby. She began drawing at age 5, went through a "Salvador Dali phase," and later practiced drawing by copying black and white photos from the encyclopedia. After attending the Minneapolis College of Art and Design, she paid her dues waiting tables as she built her portfolio and began to attract clients. Eventually she moved into illustrating children's books, and it was her first one, Chin Yu Min and the Ginger Cat, that attracted the attention of executives at Scholastic, Inc., who were looking for an illustrator for a book about a young wizard. At first she planned to turn down the job because she was already busy, she told us, but after the publisher encouraged her to read the manuscript, she changed her mind. As she told Communications Arts Magazine, "It sounded like a nice job, so I said 'sure.' I presented three cover sketches, they chose one, and I was pretty happy with everything. They were great to work with, and I think I remember them saying there might be more. At the time, it just seemed like another job." GrandPre is grateful for the popularity of Harry Potter, but she's just as proud of (and deservedly so) her other work, which includes The Noisy Paint Box, The Carnival of the Animals and Henry and Pawl and the Round Yellow Ball, a project she worked on with her husband, Tom.
I knew nothing about the process of illustrating books, so I was interested in how she described it. After researching her topic, she begins sketching quickly, often using tracing paper and ink. Sometimes, she said, she does get stuck, especially at the beginning of the process. She tries not to get discouraged if she ends up with nothing usable after a day of work, believing that there are no wasted days. "The next day will be better because of today," she said. After some back and forth with the art director of the project, the sketches are finalized. She likes to have three to four months to complete the final paintings. She has worked in pastels, acrylics, oils, and charcoal, and has used collage in at least one of her projects.
I was impressed with how kindly and patiently she answered audience questions that ranged from "How can I encourage my child who loves to draw?" to "I'm writing a children's book—how do I find a publisher?" After her talk, we were able to examine some of her work close up, and it was beautiful. She grew up attending Catholic school and church, and she mentioned that one of her early influences was the glow of the light coming through stained glass windows. I think that same glow fills her work.
You can learn more about Mary GrandPre and see some of her work on her website, marygrandpre.com.
Thank you for sharing this! Her work does glow...I loved hearing a bit about her process as an illustrator.
Sounds like a fun and very interesting presentation. Wish I could have attended with you and Laure.
Rita--You're welcome. My photos don't do her art justice. It was really beautiful.
Cheryl--It was. And we would have loved to have you along. Happy Thanksgiving!


In Uganda, getting married is a two-stage process. The second stage is a church wedding, very similar to how we would conduct a wedding in the UK. Ugandans see this as important as this is when they become married in the eyes of God.
It is the first stage which is much more interesting however. The first stage is an 'Introduction.' I was invited to such an Introduction in November. A friend and colleague in the office had a best friend, whom was tying the knot, so, in line with fantastic Ugandan hospitality, I was invited along. I was told to be at the groom's house in South-west Kampala at 8am sharp as event was occurring 3 hours away in Masaka at 11.30am. I arrived at 8am to find few guests, the family getting dressed and the groom wandering around in only a pair of shorts, desperately searching for a cow. What a thing to misplace on your wedding day. At around 11am everything was beginning to fall into place, so about 20 of us crammed into the back of 15 seater van and headed off.
At 2pm, we arrived in Masaka. Suddenly, events took a serious turn. The vans stopped a few hundred metres from the bride's house, and the groom's father lined us all up. Then he proceeded to examine us, from head to toe, tightening ties and tucking in shirts. Respect is crucial in Ugandan culture. The whole premise of the Introduction is an attempt to persuade the bride's father that the groom and his family are worthy enough to take his daughter. We were all representing the groom. One error in our dress could cause enough offence for the bride's father to legitimately send us all home. On reaching me however, the groom's father stopped. 'Kanzu' he said. I wasn't wearing the cultural white robe of the local Bugandan tribe. There was some concern. However, one was swiftly produced, and after some considerable awkwardness on my part, my long white dress was on, and we were ready to approach the house.
Men on the right and women on the left, we approached the house. At the entrance, a man emerged and stopped us. Our individual worthiness was then checked meticulously, and if we passed, a flower was pinned to our lapel and we entered. Fortunately we all did.
On entering the house/compound, we were met with 2 large marquees. In one was seated the bride's family and friends, in the other, were our designated seats. They faced each other – parliament-esque. The next couple of hours or so involved much dancing, singing and food, as the bride's family formally welcomed us to their home. Then however came two further very tense moments.
Firstly, the bride's father called the groom and his father out of the garden and into the house. The atmosphere outside lulled in anticipation. Apparently, a contract was being made. The groom was being required to agree to how he was going to treat the bride. After a while, they emerged, and stated that they had agreed. Good.
On arrival, we stopped in the middle of the garden. The bride's father rose from the seat and inspected it. This cow was part of the dowry, or bride price. Each Ugandan tribe has an expected number of cows required to release a daughter. This tribe, fortunately for me, set the amount at 1. The bride's father nodded approvingly. This was enough to legally marry the couple under Ugandan law. Job done.