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Home2020July09
Economic policy malaise
July 9, 2020 Michael Reddell labour party, Monetary policy, pandemic
Reflecting on the economic outlook, it hasn't been the best of weeks.
Across the Tasman, a large chunk of Australia – key market/source of exports, imports, investment etc – is locked down again for six weeks. It is a reminder, including to anyone contemplating investment decisions, how easily things can be blown off track again. And that is in a country with a death rate still (slightly) lower than New Zealand's. The coronavirus situation in much of the rest of the world doesn't look that great either, and with it the outlook for the world economy. Perhaps, at the margin, that troubled world economy contributed to the decision announced this morning to close Comalco.
Closer to home, the NZIER QSBO results were out. ANZ's commentary summed it up succinctly but bleakly under the heading "Worrying". Of course the June quarter outcomes will have been dreadful, but the forward-looking indicators weren't really much better. These sorts of surveys don't always have much predictive power – more unexpected stuff happens – but they paint a pretty bleak picture of how businesses were seeing things just a couple of weeks ago. Again from the ANZ
Today's data will be worrying for the RBNZ and Government; firms are reportedly hunkering down, shedding workers, and cutting prices. But more monetary stimulus is needed, and an aggressive, front-loaded approach is warranted.
And all that is despite the massive fiscal spend over the last four months, which has for now replaced a fair chunk of the lost private sector income during that period, even as it saddles us – and future governments – with much more severe constraints on fiscal freedom of action in the years to come. All that income support (in one form or another) will have helped keep private spending quite a bit higher than otherwise. All the talk was about "tiding over", but to what, to when? It has always had the feel of a policy approach dreamed up back in late February/early March when the government (and Reserve Bank) were still refusing to take very seriously that economic shock that was already engulfing the world.
In that context, it was interesting to have confirmation from the Prime Minister that the wage subsidy scheme will not be extended further – and given that firms get it as a lump sum, presumably the bulk of what will ever be paid out even under the extended scheme will already have been paid out. Ending the scheme seems appropriate – extending it the first time was probably more about politics than economics. Anything else would have looked like a bizarre attempt to freeze chunks of the economy as they were six months ago, refusing to face the reality of a changed world. But the scheme was putting large amounts of cash in the pockets of people in the private sector, supporting spending and holding GDP higher than otherwise. And what comes after it?
Part of the answer, of course, is the higher-than-otherwise benefit paid to those who've lost their jobs as a result of Covid. But it is only for 12 weeks, is still mostly about income replacement (buying time) rather than supporting a self-sustaining recovery in underlying economic activity, and of course many people just won't be eligible for it. Perhaps the government will decide to extend this scheme, but even if that were to happen it has its own problems (deterring the search for a new job).
One might, perhaps, have hoped for signs of a serious, rigorous, well-thought-out strategy from the Prime Minister. As it happens, she gave a pre-election speech to her party's Congress on Sunday. As her party is odds-on favourite to dominate the next government I read it, twice actually. In the speech the Prime Minister purported to offer a plan – a five-point plan even.
Today I am announcing our 5 point plan for our economic recovery.
It's about investing in our people, it's about jobs, preparing for our future, supporting our small businesses, entrepreneurs and job creators and positioning ourselves globally.
Sadly, she showed no sign of actually understanding how economies work or prosperity arises. Anyone, what of the five points?
Which brings me to point one of our plan – investing in our people.
Whence follows a list of handouts, which might (or might not) individually make sense, but by no stretch of the imagination or language can be called investments. Income support is fine, but it is no basis for recovery.
Perhaps this was a little closer to "investment"
That's why we made a $1.6 billion investment in trades and apprenticeships training, which includes making all apprenticeships free.
We've also made those areas of vocational training where we need people the most like building and construction and mental health support workers – all free. The potential impact of these policies is huge.
Except that this is the government that had already introduced the fees-free policy, only for it be revealed that it was mostly income support too (transfers to people who would already have been undertaking tertiary education anyway). And the new measures could have a feel of measures designed more to keep headline unemployment down than to actually revive the economy.
Even the Prime Minister recognises that training isn't much use if there are no jobs.
But retraining isn't enough if there aren't jobs to go into at the end of it.
And this is where the second part of our plan kicks in, what I like to simply call, jobs, jobs, jobs.
She proceeds to run through some government initiatives.
First is the Big New Zealand Upgrade Programme designed to tackle our core infrastructure deficit. We announced it at the beginning of the year, and it amounts to $12 billion of road, rail, public transport, school and health capital funding. It could not have come at a better time.
That programme may or may not have merit, but as she says it was announced in January, judged appropriate/necessary then – pre-Covid. It was factored into economic forecasts, including those of the Reserve Bank, then. On to some other spending.
As part of our COVID response we have committed funding to providing an additional 8000 public houses, bring the total number of state and transitional houses to be built by this Government to over 18,000 by 2024 – thank you Megan Woods and Kainga Ora.
It is the largest house building programme of any Government in decades, and I'm proud of it.
But when we're talking about infrastructure, it's not just about the projects we in the government are responsible for, we also have the opportunity to partner with communities, with iwi and local government.
That's what the $2.6 billion worth of shovel ready projects we announced earlier this week were all about.
Things like Home Ground, a project by the Auckland City Mission that will provide 80 apartments with wrap-around support and care, or the Poverty Bay Rugby Park Grandstand, least Kiri Allen stage a sit-in, right through to the Invercargill inner-city development.
It would take someone closer to the detailed data than I am to unpick quite how much of this is really new spending, and how much is just putting details to spending programmes (like the PGF) already allowed for. Nor is there any sense of (a) displacement (lots more state houses will, almost certainly, mean fewer private houses being built) or (b) value-for-money (what is the taxpayer doing funding the Invercargill city redevelopment, throwing more money at KiwiRail or – wonder of wonders – tens of millions at the Wanganui port.
And then at the end of the "jobs, jobs, jobs" section we get this
Collectively these projects are estimated to create over 20,000 jobs in the next five years.
No analysis to support that number (and we've seen before how PGF job estimates are concocted) but even if it is correct, total employment in New Zealand is about 2.8 million people. "Jobs, jobs, jobs", even on the PM's numbers, looks tiny.
She goes on to list a few environmental jobs projects. Perhaps they are worthwhile, but they certainly aren't a private sector led recovery.
But moving along
That brings me to the third plank of our plan – preparing for the future.
The whole of that plank is here
Restoring our environment is one thing, decarbonising it is another.
Investments in waste management and improving energy generation will be key- and this is where I am signalling there is more to come.
Preparing for the future also means supporting our businesses to innovate, especially as we go through a period of digital transformation.
There will be few among us who haven't changed our routines and habits as a result of COVID-19. By the end of lockdown I can confirm that Damien O'Connor did indeed discover the unmute button on zoom.
We want to support our small businesses through this digital transition, which is why we established a $10 million fund to incentivise e-commerce and train more digital advisors.
It's also why we will keep encouraging innovation in all forms. So we've created a $150 million fund to provide loans to R&D-intensive businesses.
Well, okay. If you are of the left, you might find that appealing, but even then you'd have to concede there wasn't much to it, not much that will help generate a rapid and strong economic recovery.
But there is, it appears, a role for the private sector.
All of this builds to the fourth part of our plan, supporting our small businesses, our entrepreneurs and our job creators
Which sounds good, until you read the text and realise that all she has to offer is the wage subsidy scheme, and the small business interest-free loan scheme, which was extended for a few months. Income support etc has its place, but it isn't the foundation for a strong robust economy or a rapid return to full employment.
And what of the final plank?
And the final plank of our five-point plan is to continue to position New Zealand globally as a place to trade with, to invest in, and eventually to visit again.
This has been an export-led lockdown, and so too will it be an export-led recovery.
Sounds good as an aspiration, but frankly seems unlikely. What does Labour have to offer specifically?
That's why a few months ago we provided $200m to help exporters re-engage with international markets, and support firms looking to export for the first time.
It's also why we continue to expand our trade relationships. The limitations of the last few months didn't stop us launching our free trade agreement talks with the UK …
We are investing $400 million in tourism because we know it is part of our future, and because open borders will be again too. It is not a matter of if, but when it is safe.
And on that, we already have work underway.
We are progressing with all the checks and balances needed for a trans-Tasman bubble, and also on reconnecting with our Pacific neighbours. We have a framework in place that will help Cabinet make a decision on when quarantine free travel with these parts of the world should resume.
All pretty small beer really. No one supposes that a UK preferential trade agreement is going to matter very much, and in recent weeks we've heard David Parker fulminating about the frustrations of the EU's position on trade negotiations with them. And, of course, this is the economy that – for all the talk of trade agreements – has had foreign trade shares (exports and imports) falling as a share of GDP this century, the high point of this wave of globalisation. There is also no sense of recognising that the real exchange rate remains very high – not down at all, despite the big hit to one of our main tradables sectors. And all this was nicely complemented by the government's primary industries strategy announced early in the week and now championed as Labour Party policy, which (as the economist Cameron Bagrie pointed out) involved primary exports falling as a share of GDP over the next decade, even as that sector was supposedly going to help lead the recovery.
And that was it. That, apparently, was the government's economic recovery plan.
Typically we look to monetary policy at the main counter-cyclical stabilisation tool. Ideally, it might be complemented by good pro-productivity structural reforms – of that sort successive New Zealand governments have lost interest in – but they take time to design well and implement – whereas monetary policy can be deployed very quickly.
Of course, in the context of the Covid shock it would have made sense to have deployed fiscal policy and monetary policy together. Even if monetary policy can be deployed very quickly, it does not put money in the pockets of households instantly (and in the context of a "lockdown" and the immediate (quite rational) fear-induced drop in economic activity, there was a place for immediate income support. But if monetary policy does not work instantly that is why it should be being deployed aggressively and early. Had monetary policy been used aggressively and early – starting back in February when the first OCR cut should have been done – by now we would be seeing quite a lot of the fruits (the full effects of monetary policy adjustments typically take 12-18 months), providing a stimulus to demand and activity as the fiscal support is wound back (as it is being, on announced government policy).
As it is, we have had almost nothing from monetary policy. The OCR was cut belatedly, then an irrational floor was put on the OCR by a Monetary Policy Committee that was still struggling to comprehend the severity of what they were facing. And because the Reserve Bank reacted only slowly and to a very limited extent, we've ended up with hardly any fall in real interest rates at all (inflation expectations have fallen almost as much as the OCR). The exchange rate hasn't fallen at all. The Reserve Bank likes to make great play of their LSAP programme, but it mostly works – if at all – by lowering interest rates and underpinning inflation expectations. And since we know expectations have fallen, and real interest rates have barely fallen, at the very best the LSAP programme can only have stopped things tightening. In the Prime Minister's words, this is a really severe global economic downturn……and yet monetary policy has done almost nothing; none of that necessary support is now in place even as the fiscal income support winds back and the domestic and world economies remain deeply troubled.
Of course, the failure of the Reserve Bank to do anything much useful rests initially with the Governor and his committee (the one he so dominates that we've never heard a word from any of the three external members, the one he ensured had no one with serious ongoing expertise in monetary policy appointed to it). But they are officials, ultimately accountable to the elected government. In fact, ever since the Parliament made the Bank operationally autonomous in 1989, the Act has always recognised that officials could get things wrong, and allowed for the Minister of Finance to directly override (transparently) the Bank. The current government carried those provisions into its reform of the Reserve Bank, but now – in a really severe economic downturn, in which the Reserve Bank is simply not doing its job – they seem too conservative, too scared, to use well-established statutory powers. They are happy to put in place limited zero-interest loan schemes for small businesses, but unwilling to ensure that – amid the bleak economic outlook – market prices for business and household credit are anywhere near that low. In effect, that means they prefer to let more businesses fail, more people end up languishing on the dole, more "scarring" (a point the PM made in her speech) as if wishful thinking and idle hope was a substitute for serious policy.
Right from the start of the coronavirus, this government's approach has been – in essence – to provide lots of income support and hope that the world gets back to normal pretty quickly. It was a dangerous and deluded approach from the start, something that becomes more evident with each passing month. All the more so as other countries' governments are similarly failing to do much that might support a robust recovery elsewhere. The current New Zealand government seems to have no ideas, no plan, to be unwilling to use the (low cost) powers they do have to help get relative prices better attuned to supporting recovery. There is a growing risk that we are drifting into another of those periods – perhaps worse this time – as we saw after 2008, when it took 10 years to get the unemployment rate back to something like normal (with little or no productivity growth), and no one much among the political elites (either side) seemed to really care.
Of course, if Labour's approach is bad, at least (being the government) it is on the table. It is now less than two months until voting starts and we have no idea what National's approach might be, but no reason to suppose it would be materially different or better.


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The problem(s) with China's population drop
Paul Krugman, New York Times
(Photo: Freepik)
China's population declined last year, for the first time since the mass deaths associated with Mao Zedong's disastrous Great Leap Forward in the 1960s. Or maybe it would be more accurate to say that China has announced that its population declined. Many observers are skeptical about Chinese data. I have been at conferences when China released, say, new data on economic growth, and many people responded by asking not "Why was growth 7.3 percent?" but rather "Why did the Chinese government decide to say that it was 7.3 percent?"اضافة اعلان
In any case, it is clear that China's population is or soon will be at a peak; the best bet is probably that population has been falling for several years. But why consider this a problem? After all, in the 1960s and 1970s, many people worried that the world was facing a crisis of overpopulation, with China one of the biggest sources of that pressure. And the Chinese government itself tried to limit population growth with its famous one-child policy.
So why is population decline not good news, an indication that China and the world in general will have fewer people placing demands on the resources of a finite planet?
The answer is that a declining population creates two major problems for economic management. These problems are not insoluble, given intellectual clarity and political will. But will China rise to the challenge? That's far from clear.
The first problem is that a declining population is also an aging population — and in every society I can think of we depend on younger people to support older people. In the US, the three big social programs are Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid; the first two are explicitly targeted at seniors, and even the third spends most of its money on older Americans and the disabled.
In each case, the funding for these programs ultimately depends on taxes paid by working-age adults, and concerns about America's long-term fiscal future arise largely from a rising old-age dependency ratio — that is, a rising ratio of seniors to those of working age.
China's social safety net is relatively undeveloped compared with the US, but older Chinese nonetheless depend on government aid — especially the state pension. And China's old-age dependency ratio is skyrocketing. This means that China will either have to inflict a lot of economic pain on its elderly, sharply raise taxes on younger citizens, or both.
The other problem is subtler but also serious. To maintain full employment, a society must keep overall spending high enough to keep up with the economy's productive capacity. You might think that a shrinking population, which reduces capacity, would make this task easier. But a falling population — especially a falling working-age population — tends to reduce some important kinds of spending, especially investment spending. After all, if the number of workers is declining, there is less need to build new factories, office buildings, and so on; if the number of families is declining, there is not much need to build new housing.
It would be foolish to assume that China cannot cope with its demographic issues. After all, if we are taking the longer view, China has been an incredible success story, transforming itself from a poor, developing nation into an economic superpower in just a few decades.
The result is that a society with a declining working-age population tends, other things equal, to experience persistent economic weakness. Japan illustrates the point. Its working-age population peaked in the mid-1990s, and the country has struggled with deflation ever since, despite decades of extremely low-interest rates. More recently, other wealthy countries whose demographies have begun to resemble Japan's have faced similar issues, although these issues have been sidelined — temporarily, I would argue — by the burst of inflation set off by policy responses to COVID-19.
To be fair to the Japanese, they have arguably handled the issue of population decline pretty well, avoiding mass unemployment in part by propping up their economy with deficit spending. This has led to high levels of public debt, but there has been no hint that investors are losing faith in Japanese solvency.
But can China — whose working-age population has been falling since 2015 — manage things equally well? There are good reasons to be skeptical.
China has long had a wildly unbalanced economy. For reasons I admit I do not fully understand, policymakers there have been reluctant to allow the full benefits of past economic growth to pass through to households, and that has led to relatively low consumer demand.
Instead, China has sustained its economy with extremely high rates of investment, far higher even than those that prevailed in Japan at the height of its infamous late-1980s bubble. Normally, investing in the future is good, but when extremely high investment collides with a falling population, much of that investment inevitably yields diminishing returns.
Indeed, at this point China's economy appears to rely on an incredibly bloated real estate sector, which sure looks like a financial crisis waiting to happen.
On the other hand, I am old enough to remember when every other business book seemed to have a samurai warrior on the cover, promising to teach the management secrets that were turning Japan into the world's economic leader.
The point is that for economies, as with investment funds, past performance is no guarantee of future results. We do not know how much China's demographic challenges will cause it to stumble, but there are good reasons to be concerned. I have heard pessimists describe the situation in China as similar to that of post-boom Japan without the same high level of social cohesion that allowed government and society to cushion the fall.
Oh, and China is a superpower, with an authoritarian and seemingly erratic leader. I do not think it is alarmist to worry about how it will react if its economy performs poorly.

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Such a high dependence on oil (prices) has resulted in volatile GDP growth, even relative to the Middle East region (see Figure 2). Due to low oil prices in recent years, annual average growth dropped to +1.4% in 2013-2016 from +6.1% in the preceding decade, though it surprised by a better-than-expected +3.5% in 2016. In 2017, we forecast GDP growth to fall to +0.5% as a result of OPEC-agreed oil production cuts, before it should pick up again to around +2% in 2018.
A period of relatively low GDP growth will be sus-tained by significant financial resources accumu-lated during times of higher oil prices. Foreign ex-change (FX) reserves provide around seven months of import cover and the country's Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF) is estimated at around USD592bn.


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Pictures by Mattias Swenson. Hair by Maryam at Corinne & Friends.
Last week I got a little sick of my hair and booked a last minute appointment at the hairdresser, and voila, bangs!
It's gonna take some time getting used to constantly having my hair in my face, but I absolutely love the result. Huge thanks to Maryam at Corinne & Friends for working your magic on my hair!
This entry was posted in Beauty and tagged 70s, bangs, Hair by Carolina Engman. Bookmark the permalink.
You are so pretty! I will try something like this!
You look absolutely stunning! New hairdo/ bangs suit you perfectly!!
Love these bangs on you!
Nice pic! You are beautiful!
Yours looks lovely on you!
Love it! Very 70's, ver rock'n'roll!
You look so amazing with bangs!! I love the length! Perfect!
So cute! Love the bangs!
You look stunning with bangs!
I've been wanting to get bangs too but I'm having a wedding in summer so I don't want to make a big change with my hair until then.
I think I will do it after my wedding!
It gives that 70's vibe that is so trendy now! So Dainty and Chic!


text:
module FaradayPersistentExcon
  class Connection
    attr_accessor :excon
    attr_accessor :last_use
    attr_accessor :idle_timeout

    def initialize(excon:, idle_timeout:)
      @excon = excon
      @idle_timeout = idle_timeout
    end

    def reset
      excon.reset
    end

    def expired?
      return false if last_use.nil? || idle_timeout == 0

      Time.now.utc - last_use > idle_timeout
    end

    def used!
      self.last_use = Time.now.utc
    end
  end
end

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaGithub


text:
/* global angular */
(function () {
    'use strict';

    angular
        .module('components.auth')
        .config(authConfig);

    function authConfig(routerHelperProvider, toolbarHelperProvider, authServiceProvider) {
        routerHelperProvider.configureStates(getStates());

        var authService = authServiceProvider.$get();

        var logoutItem = {
            menu: 'Manage',
            type: 'menuItem',
            label: 'Logout',
            icon: 'sign-out',
            action: authService.logout,
            order: 255
        };

         toolbarHelperProvider.registerItem(logoutItem);
    }

    function getStates() {
        return [
            {
                state: 'login',
                config: {
                    url: '/login',
                    component: 'login',
                    root: true,
                    params: {
                        timeout: false
                    }
                }
            }
        ];
    }
}());


text:
Q: Azure ARM Template - conditional input parameter In Short:
Is it possible to have condition field (or something else to achieve this functionality), inside a parameter, so that this parameter input will be asked to the user, only based on another parameter's value.
i.e., Only if user selects Create New on a parameter, the input for the name of that parameter should be asked.

In Detail:
I have a parameter virtualNetworkCreateNewOrUseExisting which will accept two values - Create New and Use Existing.
"parameters": {
    "virtualNetworkCreateNewOrUseExisting": {
        "type": "string",
        "defaultValue": "Create New",
        "allowedValues": [
            "Create New",
            "Use Existing"
        ]
    },
    // Other parameters
}

I am trying to create a Virtual Network based on an input from user.
If user selects Create New, it will be created, and if they select Use Existing, it will be skipped. I see that this is achievable by using condition field inside the resource.
"resources": [
    {
        "condition": "[equals(parameters('virtualNetworkCreateNewOrUseExisting'), 'Create New')]",
        // Other fields
    }
    // Other resources
]

Now, my question here is that,
Similar to this, is it possible to have condition field, inside another parameter, so that this parameter input will be asked to the user, only based on the previous parameter value.
i.e., Only if user selects Create New, the input for Virtual Network Name should be asked.
Something like this, by using a condition field:
"parameters": {
    "virtualNetworksName": {
        "condition": "[equals(parameters('virtualNetworkCreateNewOrUseExisting'), 'Create New')]",
        "defaultValue": "vn-1",
        "type": "string"
    },
    // Other parameters
}

But, I see that condition field, is not supported inside parameters (at least as of now).
Or, is it at least possible to have, if statements, like this (So that, the value of the field will be displayed empty by default if user selects Use Existing.):
"parameters": {
    "virtualNetworksName": {
        "defaultValue": "[if(equals(parameters('virtualNetworkCreateNewOrUseExisting'),'Create New'), 'vn-1', '')]",
        "type": "string"
    },
    // Other parameters
}

Or, any other way to achieve this goal?

A: As per the current Azure documentation, we cannot add conditions to parameters in parameters block.
As a side note you can use PowerShell parameter inline functions while deploying the template.
We see that there is a feature request already in place  to add Support functions within the definition of parameters... · Community (azure.com) We would suggest you to make a comment & Upvote on the exiting feedback request .

A: You can't do this natively in the template file, but in the portal user experiences for deploying the template you can...  See:
https://learn.microsoft.com/en-us/azure/azure-resource-manager/templates/template-specs-create-portal-forms
and
https://learn.microsoft.com/en-us/azure/azure-resource-manager/managed-applications/create-uidefinition-overview
You don't have to use a templateSpec or managedApp (see the "Deploy to Azure button here: https://github.com/Azure/azure-quickstart-templates/tree/master/demos/100-marketplace-sample )
but templateSpec or managedApp will give you a better experience if that's an option.

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


text:
AMP Australian wealth management unit's net outflows more than halve
FILE PHOTO: The logo of AMP Ltd adorns its head office located in central Sydney, Australia
(Reuters) -AMP Ltd on Friday reported third-quarter net outflows at its Australian wealth management unit more than halved due to increased inflows into its flagship online investment platform, North, and reduced withdrawals at its pension trusts.
AMP has suffered from persistent outflows since a government-backed inquiry revealed a series of scandals that the 173-year-old firm has been striving to get past as it seeks to regain public trust.
"We've seen a reduction in cash outflows to other superannuation funds and we're winning new customers on our North platform, which has continued to grow cashflows from independent financial advisers," AMP Chief Executive Officer Alexis George said.
The North platform recorded inflows of A$774 million in the quarter, while outflows at the Master Trust fell to A$819 million from A$1.59 billion.
According to the company's annual report released in March this year, Master Trust offers the largest single retail superannuation product set in Australia with around 850,000 customers.
Net cash outflows at AMP's main wealth management business were A$0.8 billion ($502.40 million) for the three months to September, compared with A$1.9 billion recorded a year earlier.
Assets under management at the unit, however, fell A$3.7 billion to A$121.4 billion due to a downturn in investment markets and continued cash outflows.
AMP said net interest margins at its banking unit remained on track to meet their annual forecast range of 135 basis points (bps) to 140 bps.
($1 = 1.5924 Australian dollars)
(Reporting by Harish Sridharan in Bengaluru; Editing by Vinay Dwivedi)


text:
Q: Specific case about fragment restoration The problem is that after I put the app in the background fragment(s) are destroyed, and then when I bring the app back to the foreground it recreates old fragments and according to the app, logic creates additional fragment(s).
I'll explain precisely, in order to check app behavior in case of low memory I enabled in the dev options Don't keep activity, so it means that each time I put the app in the background activities will be destroyed and once I bring the app on foreground state will be recreated.
Ok, now about my app architecture, first of all, it navigates with the navigation component NavHostFragment secondly it has an activity that consists of a fragment that has tablayout with viewpager. Tablayout has 2 tabs where each tab is the fragment itself. So, Activity -> fragment -> tablayout -> 2 more fragments.
Here according to the logs, you can see that after the UI was created I have 2 PlanFragment then I put the app in the background, as a result, these fragments get onDestroy event, it is ok, however, after trying to bring the app back to the foreground it recreates 2 PlanFragment (without calling newInstance method) and then (according to the logic) newInstance method being called and 2 more PlanFragment created as a result I have 4 PlanFragment fragments.
=== start create UI ===
43.583  E  AuthActivity onCreate: 186118056
43.630  E  AuthPackageSelectionFragment onCreate: 197020657, parent: NavHostFragment{88ff3d6} (77945dff-a9c2-4f9f-8e11-8218dbd604bf id=0x7f0a050d)
43.798  E  create tablyout fragments AuthPackageSelectionFragment onCreate: 197020657
43.799  E  newInstance PlanFragment
43.799  E  newInstance PlanFragment
43.825  E  PlanFragment onCreate: 95398784
43.990  E  PlanFragment onCreate: 205178621
=== UI created ===
=== put app in the background ===
08.787  E  AuthActivity onDestroy: 186118056
08.789  E  PlanFragment onDestroy: 95398784
08.790  E  PlanFragment onDestroy: 205178621
08.801  E  AuthPackageSelectionFragment onDestroy: 197020657, parent: NavHostFragment{88ff3d6} (77945dff-a9c2-4f9f-8e11-8218dbd604bf id=0x7f0a050d)
=== app in the background ===
=== bring app back to foregraund ===
19.757  E  AuthPackageSelectionFragment onCreate: 141365020, parent: NavHostFragment{cb22725} (77945dff-a9c2-4f9f-8e11-8218dbd604bf id=0x7f0a050d)
19.758  E  PlanFragment onCreate: 42083764
19.760  E  PlanFragment onCreate: 129334143
19.761  E  AuthActivity onCreate: 24560031
19.848  E  AuthPackageSelectionFragment onDestroy: 141365020, parent: NavHostFragment{cb22725} (77945dff-a9c2-4f9f-8e11-8218dbd604bf id=0x7f0a050d)
19.850  E  AuthPackageSelectionFragment onCreate: 175242279, parent: NavHostFragment{cb22725} (77945dff-a9c2-4f9f-8e11-8218dbd604bf id=0x7f0a050d)
20.213  E  create tablyout fragments AuthPackageSelectionFragment onCreate: 175242279
20.213  E  newInstance PlanFragment
20.213  E  newInstance PlanFragment
20.256  E  PlanFragment onCreate: 96753467
20.380  E  PlanFragment onCreate: 218872921
=== state restored ===

As far as I understand one possible solution here is somehow the app shouldn't restore fragments that got onDestroy event, so these fragments will only be created according to the logic flow once the parent fragment will be created.
What am I missing here?
P.S. If Don't keep activity is disabled the app behaves as expected (don't destroys an activity while in the background)
EDIT
Fragment that contains TabLayout with ViewPager2
open class AuthPackageSelectionFragment : BaseAuthIapFragment() {
    private lateinit var tlPlans: TabLayout
    private lateinit var vpPlans: ViewPager2

...

    private fun initTlForPlans() {
        val adapter = VPPlansAdapter(requireActivity().supportFragmentManager, lifecycle)
        vpPlans.adapter = adapter

        TabLayoutMediator(tlPlans, vpPlans) { tab, position ->
            tab.tag = planFragmentList[position].periodicity
            tab.customView = adapter.getTabView(
                tabLayout = tlPlans,
                text = planFragmentList[position].periodicity.lowercase().replaceFirstChar(Char::titlecase),
                badgeText = planFragmentList[position].badgeText
            )
        }.attach()
    }

    ...

    private fun subscribe() {
       vm.availablePackage.observe(viewLifecycleOwner) { pkgs ->
            planFragmentList = pkgs.map { pkg ->
                    val curFrag: PlanFragment = PlanFragment.newInstance(
                        periodicity = pkg.periodicity,
                        badgeText = pkg.promotionalOverlay,
                        basePlanList = pkg.basePlans ?: listOf(),
                        addonPlanList = pkg.addOns ?: listOf()
                    )

                    curFrag.set(callback = object : PlanFragment.PlanFragmentCallback {
                        override fun doOnSelected(item: List<PlanDescription>) {
                            vm.doOnPlanSelected(item)
                        }
                    })

                    return@map curFrag
                }

                (vpPlans.adapter as VPPlansAdapter).set(tabs = planFragmentList)

            ...
          }

          ...

ViewPager adapter implementation
class VPPlansAdapter(fragmentManager: FragmentManager, lifecycle: Lifecycle) : FragmentStateAdapter(fragmentManager, lifecycle) {
    private var tabs: List<Fragment> = listOf()

    fun set(tabs: List<Fragment>) {
        this.tabs = tabs
        notifyDataSetChanged()
    }

    override fun getItemCount(): Int = tabs.size

    override fun createFragment(position: Int): Fragment = tabs[position]

    fun getTabView(tabLayout: TabLayout, text: String, badgeText: String?): View =
        LayoutInflater.from(tabLayout.context).inflate(R.layout.auth_tabitem_layout, tabLayout, false)
            .apply {
                (this.findViewById(R.id.tv_tabitem_title) as TextView).text = text
                val tvBadge: TextView = this.findViewById(R.id.tv_badge)

                if (badgeText.isNullOrEmpty()) {
                    tvBadge.visibility = View.INVISIBLE
                } else {
                    tvBadge.visibility = View.VISIBLE
                    tvBadge.text = badgeText
                }
            }
}


Before Stella Luk graduated from the University of Alberta in 2005, she had already conducted international robotics experiments, co-invented software for IBM, and lived and studied in both Ontario and Sweden as part of her degree. In the not-too-distant future, she'll be a lawyer specializing in international issues like human rights and intellectual property.
Luk's robotics project was part of her academic exchange trip to Sweden, where she attended Uppsala University. Communicating mostly through online instant messaging and webcams, a group of students in Sweden and a group of students in the U.S. each made an identical robot. Through an Internet user interface, they controlled and directed the robots through obstacle courses and other tests, all while living on different continents.
"The fascinating thing about that project was how it combined so many different parts of computing science: networks, robotics, image recognition, software design, usability…" says Luk.
She tried her hand at inventing as part of her internship at IBM as an Internet tools developer. The position, which was in Markham, Ontario, charged her with developing and creating software when she wasn't busy testing and troubleshooting software. Together with her supervisor, Luk invented a software design that allows computers to understand changes in software code better and faster.
Luk calls the internship her best experience at university. "I think everyone should do the internship," she says. Not only did she advance her skills in problem-solving and project management, but IBM made sure she and the other 200 students working at the IBM lab felt at home. There were social events and activities like free kickboxing lessons. "The internship is such a great thing to do. It opened doors, let me experience a 'real life' software development environment, and allowed me to meet people on all kinds of technology-related career paths."
As Luk neared graduation, she struggled with what to do next. She loved computing science, but still wanted to pursue her long-time interest in social justice and human rights. Since high school she had been volunteering for groups like Amnesty International and Oxfam. In fact, Luk had chosen to study computing science partly because she thought it would meld with her other interests.
She was right — her computing science background has transferred to her other interests. Luk was accepted into the Combined JD/Collaborative MA in International Relations program at the University of Toronto and began studying there in the fall of 2005. The program equips her to be a lawyer and also awards her a master's degree in arts.
Before Luk went to the U of A, she knew nothing about computers except for how to use Microsoft Word. She went on to receive the Dean's Silver Medal in Science for superior academic achievement, and she says her U of A experiences helped her to do what she is doing today.
Luk says law is like computing science in that it comes into so many parts of life. She is enjoying the company of people like herself who are interested in using law to promote positive social change. Her latest career contemplations involve technology and human rights law; for example, how intellectual property is handled in developing countries.


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There's much more to a successful tryout than having good basketball skills and/or being a good athlete.
To assist our young athletes to have a good tryout, McLean Select Basketball will provide a handout titled, "Tryout Tips" that highlights what coaches look for at tryouts.
Click here to download the Tryout Tips handout [will be uploaded before tryouts].
"Tryout Tip of the Day"
Starting on Monday on the week of tryouts, McLean Select Basketball will be posting a Tryout Tip of the Day, providing our young athletes one item per day to focus on as they begin and continue through tryouts.
Last updated: July 15, 2010.


On vacation to the west coast this past week we (my husband and I) found a lot of old and interesting historical sites to look at. We started at the Redwoods in northern California and southern Oregon. If you haven't had the chance to see the redwoods, you should. Pretty amazing. One of the trees we saw was about 22 feet across and 350 ft tall! That's a big tree. And then we went on up highway 101 up through part of Washington. There are more lighthouses then one might think. We had a little bad luck when it came to getting tours to see these. Either they were being worked on and covered in tarps or they were closed that day. We even had bad luck with the sea lion cave. Long story short we didn't get to see any sea lions. Even after all our bad luck, we still were able to see a lot of cool and interesting sites like some of the Lewis and Clark National and State Historical Parks. Can you imagine what kind of door hardware some of these places had? Okay, you don't have to imagine it… I will just show you.
Fort Clatsop has a replica that was similar to the one built by Lewis and Clark. They are confident they built the replica within yards of the original fort. The hinges and door locks were really interesting.
The wood hinges of Fort Clatsop were a little more simple than our day to day hinge we use now as you can see.
The locks look a bit more complicated than the hinges, but not too much. You can see exactly how the mechanism works, as the mechanism is right in front of your face. The mechanism for our door locks now are all hidden in the door, so I think it's interesting to see with your own eyes how it all works.
Fort Columbia is a military site that defended the Columbia River from 1896 to 1947. It became a state park in 1950. This was really cool. You could walk the entire site even the underground part, where I found more cool looking door hardware.


text:
Did Arsene and Arsenal waste the Club's footballing talent of 1998-2006, coaching-wise?
My brothers will tell you I am a glutton for punishment. All my life I have been sports mad (I taught it in schools for 23 years!). I read anything and everything on almost every sport imaginable – good, bad and indifferent material.
Although football, rugby and cricket are the very top of my interest, I will find myself studying the intricacies of free climbing, or bias in curling, the mechanics of the sand wedge or transference of force in a boxing jab. (I say "almost every" – I have little regard for F1 and American Football).
Jimmy Chin – National Geographic
In addition to reading much, I listen to sport, live commentary, and the opinions of ex sportsmen, "pundits", and those somehow (unbelievably) provided with money to talk bowlocks about sport with little or no significant experience to justify their existence in the role.
And so (eventually) to the point of my post…….
Listening to Georgie Bingham and the fake Irishman Cascarino recently, I heard, following copious praise for how well the wonderful Man Utd had used so many of its " golden generation" in Club coaching and managing roles, with Solskjaer being the crowning glory, that ARSENAL and WENGER had not only wasted theirs from the 1998-2006 period, but, in the case of Arsene, had a definite policy to NOT involve them in Club.
Hackles up, I started to analyse this comment.
Firstly there is Steve Bould. (Although given his "staticness" on the bench during the Wenger era, perhaps he's more evidence for Ms Bingham's case than anyone else!) I am fairly certain that Keown, Dixon, and Winterburn, play some part in the daily running of the Club, if not as much in the coaching of defenders role that I would like to see!
Stuart MacFarlane/Arsenal FC via Getty Images
Freddie and the BFG are now in charge of the Academy and U23s, and at that point I asked myself a question. How many of those missing do I think COULD have been usefully involved. My answer was reduced to two! I have always believed Patrick V. should have been incorporated into our set-up. ( I would still like him to be an Arsenal manager someday). And I would now have to add Marc Overmars for what seems to have been a silent but excellent role behind the scenes at Ajax.
Tony Adams (Granada – P6 L6 F2 A15) says Wenger 'couldn't coach his way out of a paper bag'
Here's Tony coaching his way out of a paper bag pic.twitter.com/QVheglTZp7
— 888sport (@888sport) May 19, 2017
Of the rest, TA has always been clueless to me in terms of coaching, and I believe the same might (perhaps unfairly) be said of Thierry. Sol might prove me wrong, but I doubt it. DB10 never really wanted a coaching role, and has now fallen out even with his Dutch love. Ray Parlour, Gilberto, Lauren, Manu P, Merson, Smith, Ian Wright…….COULD any of them have made it in coaching/managing at our Club? Doubtful IMO.
So have we wasted talent? Have I forgotten anyone important? What do you think?
28 Comments	| Uncategorized	| Tagged: Arsène Wenger, Arsenal, English Premier League, Football, Freddie Ljungberg, Patrick Vieira, The Invincibles, Tony Adams	| Permalink
Posted by chas
Happy Invincibles Day!
So, the achievement of Arsene's squad of 2003/4 remains without equal for another season.
Liverpool succumbed at the 21st hurdle thanks to a determined Citeh side keen to make a decent fist of defending their title and to 11 millimetres of a football which refused to cross a goal line.
The tide swung towards Pep's side when Aguero lashed in superbly at the near post but Firmino's equaliser had us all wondering if last night wasn't to be the night when Liverpool's Lost column clicked round to '1'. Leroy Sané scraped one in off the far post and via a small deflection to give us what we wanted in the 72 minute.
Dejan Lovren's 'Liverpool can go unbeaten' claim a day or two ago now seems faintly ridiculous with the Christmas decorations still up. I doubt he was too popular in the Liverpool camp putting the bock on it, big-style.
The red mancs managed 24 games at the start of the 2010/11 season before losing to Wolves which remains second to Arsenal's full season unbeaten in the Premier League era.
To go the full 38 games seems unbelievable and is rightly up there as perhaps Arsene's finest achievement.
Maybe some club will eventually emulate the achievement of Paddy, Thierry, Sol, Ralph, Jens, Kolo and Arsene (amongst others) in the modern era, but until they do, let's celebrate the glory of that magnificent accomplishment in the 2003/4 season with all our hearts.
p.s. it was LBG's birthday yesterday – quite a nice present I'd say.
19 Comments	| Uncategorized	| Tagged: 49 undefeated, Arsène Wenger, Arsenal, English Premier League, Football, The Invincibles	| Permalink
Arsenals Top Season 2003-2004 Step up – Arsene Wenger's Invincibles
They are the only team to go unbeaten for a complete season since Preston North End went unbeaten in the inaugural season of the Football League in 1889 with a record of P22, W18, D4, L0, GF74, GA15, Pts58.
In retaining the Premier League Championship in 2001/02, Arsenal had earlier equalled Preston North End's record of going unbeaten away for the entire season by beating Manchester United 0-1 at Old Trafford in our final away game. Perhaps it was this outstanding achievement which prompted Arsene Wenger's outrageous prediction in September 2002 that his side could go a whole season unbeaten – the journos and footballing establishment mocked such a claim.
The 'Comical' jibe plus beret were a reference to an Iraqi Information minister at the time
Arsene only used 22 players in the whole season with Jens Lehmann playing in all 38 games – which included 15 shut outs.
Although he performed well throughout the 2002/03 season, long-serving keeper David Seaman was released at the end of the campaign. Arsenal brought in Jens Lehmann from Borussia Dortmund for a mere £1.5 million – a steal, considering just how important he would be for Arsenal over the next 12 months. Due to building the Emirates there were no big-name signings; club captain Patrick Vieira signed a new contract in the face of strong interest from Manchester United, Chelsea, and Real Madrid. With Arsene not make any big changes to the squad, and with no major departures, Arsenal started the season with the same group of players as the previous season.
The season kicked off with Arsenal in inspired form. A 2-1 home victory over Everton on the opening day was followed up with 4-0 win over Middlesbrough, a 2-0 win over Aston Villa and a 2-1 away victory over David Seaman and Manchester City. With just four games played, Arsenal had already put three points between them and fellow title-chasers Manchester United, leaving them sitting comfortably in first place, having scored ten and conceded just two.
Our unbeaten run came close to ending at Old Trafford in the sixth game of the season when United were awarded a penalty in injury time (no surprise there) but (our least liked player) Ruud van Nistelrooy stepped up and missed the penalty and the match ended tied at 0–0. Tempers boiled over in the game dubbed the 'Battle of Old Trafford' following Vieira being given a red card.
October presented a tough schedule with a trip to Anfield and a home game against Chelsea. Despite falling behind against Liverpool we recovered to win 2-1. Going into the Chelsea game, both sides were level at the top of the table and were also undefeated in the league. The game appeared to be heading for a draw until a Carlo Cudicini blunder saw Thierry Henry give Arsenal the win, bringing an end to Chelsea's unbeaten run. Despite the fact we had still not lost a poor 0-0 draw against Fulham on Nov 30th gave Chelsea the chance to take over at the top of the table.
At the turn of the year Arsenal had made it half way through the season without tasting defeat in the Premier League and the unbeaten season began to take place: but despite this feat, Arsenal entered 2004 in second place, one point behind leaders Manchester United.
The Gunners' first game of the year once again ended with a lacklustre draw against Everton, while United secured a victory to increase their lead to three points. Although, things picked up with a dominant 4-1 win over Middlesbrough, which saw us draw level with United on points, goal difference and goals scored. Henry then began a goal scoring run which would see him net in each of the club's next six games, the second and third of which came against Aston Villa a week later giving Arsenal all three points. Despite a trip to title chasers Chelsea and a visit to Manchester City, February would prove to be one of the best months in the campaign, with five wins in five games.
After 30 games Arsenal had officially beaten the Premier League record of consecutive game without defeat.
The 31st game saw perhaps the game of the season with Thierry Henry scoring a blistering hat trick to beat Liverpool after being 2-1 down at halftime.
Henry beats Dudek having left a trail of prostrate Scouse defenders in his wake
On April 25th we went to White Hart Lane knowing knew that a single point would be enough to end any chance of a late Chelsea comeback. Goals from Vieira and Pirés were enough to secure a 2-2 draw that handed Arsenal the trophy at the home of the North London pretenders with four games to spare.
We saw out the final month of Premier League action comfortably, with a bore draw against Birmingham City followed up with a 1-1 draw at Portsmouth and a 1-0 victory over Fulham. Despite going behind in their final game against Leicester City, Arsenal bossed the second-half, claiming victory thanks to goals from Henry and Vieira.
After Arsenal completed the only 38-match season unbeaten, the Premier League commissioned a unique gold trophy to commemorate the achievement. Arsène Wenger was presented the trophy as a parting gift from the club after his last home game as manager on 6 May 2018.
Written by GunnerN5
96 Comments	| Uncategorized	| Tagged: Arsène Wenger, Arsenal, English Premier League, Football, Patrick Vieira, The Invincibles, Thierry Henry	| Permalink
The Invincibles would have struggled too
Ok I won't leave it there, I'll put some thoughts down first and then you can all have at it…..
Over the last few games a similar theme has arisen, why don't we move the ball as quickly as we used to, obviously this often conjures up images in the mind of Paddy passing to God and him choosing which pawn to move next normally a rushing Thierry or Freddie and we just waited for the inevitable sound of ball in onion bag.
Repeat a couple of times then coast through the rest of the game conserving energy for the rest of the season. It is widely accepted that at some point Arsene shifted away from pace and power to smaller more gifted technical players, why?
I have a theory it stems from when we lost our unbeaten record, Ferguson decided stopping us playing would be far more beneficial than playing against us. He put a couple of solid banks out there and had his men go about kicking everything that moved, theory which proved successful in that upsetting the rhythm of our team stopped counter attacks early and denied us space in behind and time. This formula was gradually copied by everyone else, some like Allardyce had already done it.
With everyone else copying this tactic how would pace and power get round crowded midfield threes and solid defensive lines who were reluctant to move further than twenty five yards from their own goal, the power might have worked but the pace not so much. Hence the move to technical players who can unpick these packed defences and pass round midfield anchormen.
But here are my questions and the point behind the post:
Why did the likes of Blackburn, Newcastle, Middlesborough etc turn up at Highbury and play a proper game of football (ie both sides attacking)?
This allowed our pace men to burn away from opponents and exploit gaps left.
Why have teams adopted a very different style now?
They'd rather escape with a point, because Premier League survival is paramount and secondly once that is secure the next step is Premier League prize money, and every point counts. So when they arrive at the home of football they prefer to park the bus, would the Invincibles have had more weapons to break this down? I'm not sure.
84 Comments	| Uncategorized	| Tagged: Arsène Wenger, Arsenal, The Invincibles	| Permalink
Posted by Gööner In Exile
Saints Preserve Us!
This weekend or next we have the opportunity to clinch third place, and to celebrate, each in our own way, the annual pleasure of St Totteringham's Day.
Although of only recent inception, St Totterigham's has now become a popular and much anticipated event. Oh how we love it! But it is not the only annual Arsenal celebration, and so I propose that we formally instate another shared feast.
St Invictus Day.
This is the day on which none of Arsenal Premiership competitor's remain unbeaten. It is the day on which we know that the legend of the Invincibles cannot be besmirched by the upstart over-moneyed Johnny-come-latelys. It is the day when there is a reassuring lack of zeroes in the losses column of the premiership table. And it is a day when the whole of English football is reminded just how incredible the achievement of the Arsenal team was in 2003-04.
It is a day we should celebrate every year.
Historically, there have been eight St Invictus' Days to date:
Perhaps unsurprisingly, as the years have passed, the media has gradually devalued the Invincibles season. The last remaining unbeaten team of each season suddenly becomes a candidate for equalling their achievement. A quick Google search brings up articles in this vein by TalkSport for both this season and last, some of them as early as October!
But as we can see from the above, in eight attempts only one team managed to get anywhere close, and they were unbeaten for less than two-thirds of the season.
So let us continue to celebrate the Invincibles and the Arsenal when the next St Invictus Day comes around!
Written by MJC
194 Comments	| Uncategorized	| Tagged: Arsène Wenger, Arsenal, English Premier League, Football, The Invincibles	| Permalink
Posted by Rasp
Invincibles versus VanPersibles: How Many of Today's Team Would Get in the 2004 Vintage?
First off, I accept that this is a pretty unfair comparison.
To rank any Arsenal team from any era against the most feted group of Gunners ever to have worn the sacred cannon is clearly destined to be a mismatch.
It's a bit like comparing Dan Brown with Charles Dickens, or Boyzone with the Beatles.
But I have noticed a few comments recently (including yesterday from Chary) alleging that, for several years now, we have been replacing good players with new players of slightly lower quality, and then replacing those ones with slightly lower quality again and so on. A kind of downward inflation.
We may not now be in the worst of times, but it made me wonder how far we have fallen since the greatest of times. How close would any of the current first team get to starting in the Arsenal eleven of 2003/4?
I am taking as our current First XI (with everyone fit):
Our first choice first team from 2003/4 was:
So let's do the Head-to-Head.
Szczesny or Lehmann
No contest. Mad he may have been, but Jens Lehmann was the best 'keeper in the Premiership that season. Szczesny will turn into a great player, but he is still learning his trade and, inevitably, makes costly mistakes. Lehmann.
Sagna or Lauren
Tough call this one. Sagna has been one of our most consistent players of recent years. Ralph was equally consistent during the unbeaten season. They are both no-nonsense, uncomplicated defenders capable of focusing fully for the whole game. I'm going to shade this one Sagna's way because he is a bit more dynamic getting forward. Sagna.
Koscielny or Toure
If Koscielny keeps progressing it may not be too long before he can eclipse Kolo Toure. But for now, Kolo's athleticism, speed and strength win the day. Toure.
Vermaelen or Campbell
Again very close, but Campbell was the rock upon which our Invincibles defence was built. A double wardrobe with a Ferrari engine, Campbell must have been a nightmare to play against. Campbell.
Santos or Cole
Santos may become an Arsenal great, but right now this is a no-contest. The greedy Chav wins hands down. Cole.
Song or Gilberto
Alex Song is a more gifted all-round footballer, but for protecting the defence against all comers it has to be the Invincible Invisible Wall. He wasn't spectacular, but, boy, did he know his job. Gilberto.
Vieira or Wilshere
Bad luck Jack. Against most midfielders who have played for Arsenal you might have won this one, but I'm afraid no-one can displace the unmatchable Paddy V. Vieira.
Arteta or Pires
OK, OK… this is where the exercise breaks down a bit because a 4-3-3 is different from a 4-4-2. Let's just say that, good though Arteta is (and his absence on Sunday helped reinforce his importance), it has to be Le Bob. Pires.
Walcott or Ljungberg
Freddie was never the most gifted of players, but his intelligence made him one of the most effective wide men in the business, always arriving in the box at the right moment and choosing the right option. Sadly, when it comes to footballing intelligence and taking the right option, Theo does not rate so highly. Ljungberg.
Van Persie or Bergkamp
Two Dutch Masters. Bergkamp played 'in the hole' – a position in which Robin would also possibly thrive. But even after his goal scoring exploits of the last year, RvP cannot displace the greatest player ever to have pulled on the famous red and white. Bergkamp.
Gervinho or Henry
Close call, this one. OK, just kidding. Henry.
So there we have it. From our current first team only Sagna, by my reckoning, would have a chance of being a starter in our Invincible eleven (and even that is a close call).
What does this tell us?
That the years of being a bit boracic because of the stadium build have led to us downgrading the quality of our players, as Chary and others suggest?
That we are currently an unambitious club unwilling to spend on world class players the like of which we had in 2003/4?
That football has changed so much since 2004 (when it was really a toss up between us and Manchester Utd for the title each year) that we will never again be able to achieve such dominance because of the arrival of the sugar daddy clubs like Chelsea and Manchester City?
Or that, back in 2004, we were just incredibly, freakishly lucky to have several of the best players in the world all playing together, supported by ruthlessly professional team mates and a winning ethic that enabled us to steamroller all opposition?
Have we fallen so far because of self-inflicted mistakes, or is it just the swings and roundabouts of football, in which success is difficult to achieve and sometimes difficult to understand, while failure is an ever-present possibility (just look at Liverpool and the Spuds) for which everyone claims to know the reason and whom to blame?
RockyLives
353 Comments	| Uncategorized	| Tagged: Arsène Wenger, Arsenal, Robin van Persie, The Invincibles, Thierry Henry	| Permalink
Posted by RockyLives


text:
<?php

class MappingRunCommandTest extends \PHPUnit_Framework_TestCase
{
    /**
     * @test
     */
    public function it_runs_mappings()
    {
        $mapper = Mockery::mock('Sleimanx2\Plastic\Mappings\Mapper');
        $vendorDir = __DIR__.'/vendor';
        $command = new \Sleimanx2\Plastic\Console\Mapping\Run($mapper, $vendorDir);

        $app = Mockery::mock(new Illuminate\Container\Container())->makePartial();
        $app->shouldReceive('databasePath')->andReturn(__DIR__);
        $app->shouldReceive('environment')->andReturn('local');

        $command->setLaravel($app);

        $mapper->shouldReceive('setConnection')->once()->with(null);
        $mapper->shouldReceive('run')->once()->with(__DIR__.DIRECTORY_SEPARATOR.'mappings', ['step' => false, 'index' => null]);
        $mapper->shouldReceive('getNotes')->andReturn([]);
        $mapper->shouldReceive('repositoryExists')->once()->andReturn(true);
        $this->runCommand($command);
    }

    /**
     * @test
     */
    public function it_runs_mappings_in_steps()
    {
        $mapper = Mockery::mock('Sleimanx2\Plastic\Mappings\Mapper');
        $vendorDir = __DIR__.'/vendor';
        $command = new \Sleimanx2\Plastic\Console\Mapping\Run($mapper, $vendorDir);

        $app = Mockery::mock(new Illuminate\Container\Container())->makePartial();
        $app->shouldReceive('databasePath')->andReturn(__DIR__);
        $app->shouldReceive('environment')->andReturn('local');

        $command->setLaravel($app);

        $mapper->shouldReceive('setConnection')->once()->with(null);
        $mapper->shouldReceive('run')->once()->with(__DIR__.DIRECTORY_SEPARATOR.'mappings', ['step' => true, 'index' => null]);
        $mapper->shouldReceive('getNotes')->andReturn([]);
        $mapper->shouldReceive('repositoryExists')->once()->andReturn(true);
        $this->runCommand($command, ['--step' => true]);
    }

    /**
     * @test
     */
    public function it_runs_mappings_with_a_given_database()
    {
        $mapper = Mockery::mock('Sleimanx2\Plastic\Mappings\Mapper');
        $vendorDir = __DIR__.'/vendor';
        $command = new \Sleimanx2\Plastic\Console\Mapping\Run($mapper, $vendorDir);

        $app = Mockery::mock(new Illuminate\Container\Container())->makePartial();
        $app->shouldReceive('databasePath')->andReturn(__DIR__);
        $app->shouldReceive('environment')->andReturn('local');

        $command->setLaravel($app);

        $mapper->shouldReceive('setConnection')->once()->with('foo');
        $mapper->shouldReceive('run')->once()->with(__DIR__.DIRECTORY_SEPARATOR.'mappings', ['step' => false, 'index' => null]);
        $mapper->shouldReceive('getNotes')->andReturn([]);
        $mapper->shouldReceive('repositoryExists')->once()->andReturn(true);
        $this->runCommand($command, ['--database' => 'foo']);
    }

    protected function runCommand($command, $input = [])
    {
        return $command->run(
            new Symfony\Component\Console\Input\ArrayInput($input),
            new Symfony\Component\Console\Output\NullOutput()
        );
    }
}


For this project, we used filtering and the frequency domain in order to analyze, combine, and blend images. All parts of this project required a gaussian filter; I used a Gaussian with size 21, and a default sigma of 3.3. I wrote a function to generate a Gaussian given a certain size and sigma value, and a second function in order to convolve two images.
In order to convolve images efficiently in python, I use the numpy functions "as_strided" and "einsum". As strided provides a new "view" into an image, in which I can essentially add a new dimension to the image in order to properly align it with the image it is being convolved with. The "einsum" function implements an einstein summation, where two or more arrays are multiplied along specified dimensions and summed along others. With this approach, I can convolve two images in two lines of code, without using any loops.
The coolest part of this assignment was being able to blend images together seamlessly. Its interesting that the simple technique we use here can have such powerful results.
To create hybrid images, we lowpass filter one image and highpass filter the other. The low-frequency image is created by convolution with a Guassian of sigma 8. The high-frequency image is created by making a low-frequency image (convolve with a Gaussian of sigma 4), and subtracting it from the original image.
Only the low-frequency image is visible from a far distance, while the high frequencies are more noticable from up close.
For this part of the project, I combined Oski, a mountain lion, and Bernie Sanders with an image of Chancellor Dirks. I used the provided script in order to align images. The Oski image was not very successful, because the two head shapes do not align very well. However, the other two images were quite effective. With Sanders, I applied a highpass filter to Dirks and with the mountain lion I applied a lowpass filter to Dirks and a highpass filter to the mountain lion.
The fourier transform of the low-frequnecy image is bright along the diagonals and in the center, while the high-frequency fourier transform has a noticable dark spot in the center.
I discovered that it did not look so good to use color for the high-frequency edges, but that color worked very well in the low-frequency background image. Convolution is not so different in color than in black-and-white; An identical Gaussian is convolved with each color channel.
I created Gaussian and Laplacian stacks of two images: the Dali painting "Gala Contemplating the Mediterranean Sea," and the hybrid image of Dirks and Sanders from above. In order to create a Gaussian stack, we convolve an image with a larger and larger Gaussian. I started with a sigma of 2, and doubled the sigma at each level of the stack. A laplacian stack is created by taking the difference between adjacent images in the Gaussian stack. The final image of the laplacian stack is merely the final image of the Gaussian stack. In the Dali painting, moving down the Gaussian stack, we see Gala slowly disappear and Lincoln take her place. In the Laplacian stack, Gala is clearly visible in the first two levels, and Lincoln can only be clearly scene on the last level.
For the hybrid image, the first four levels of the Laplacian stack show Dirks and the final level shows Sanders. The fifth level is empty, because those intermediate frequencies have been filtered out of the images.
Multi-resolution blending is implemented by creating a laplacian stack of two images and a Gaussian stack of a mask image. At each level, we take corresponding images from each stack. We multiply one image by the mask at that level of the stack, and the other image by one minus the mask (the mask's inverse). Then, we sum up the values from each level of the stack.
Since the mask is Gaussian blurred, lower levels of the stack will have a higher amount of blending between images.
I attempted three blendings. The first is of the rappers Gucci Mane and Lil Wayne. The second is of Senator Bernie Sanders and Chancellor Dirks. The final one uses an irregular mask to give me a third eye on my forehead. The blending of the two rappers is a partial success, and the blending of the eye was highly successful. Results were best when colors in the images lined up and there was no conflict between large-sized features of the images.
This is the result image. I cropped the bottom half of the image because the nose and mouth did not line up so well.
I used a simple mask image with one half black and the other half white.
Finally, I did a blend on this image of my face, using a mask that covers up the eye.
The second input image. This is a shifted version of the other image, with the left eye positioned over the other image's forehead.
This is the result of combining the images using the mask without doing any blending. An oval border around the eye is clearly visible.
By simply inverting the mask, the blend removes one of my eyes rather than adding one.
Because of the way I wrote my code, it was very easy to work with images in either black and white or color. In order to do an Einstein summation on a color image, we just add another dimension to each image and preserve this dimension through the summation. Thus, all of the blends for part 2 of this project are done in color.


An urban tour of Vancouver and the surrounds. Particularly looking at the cycling infrastructure and the level of bicycle use. A test ride with the Ritchey Breakaway Coupling system. The intention was to be able to pack the bike in a small enough space to measure no more than 62" (W+L+H). This is the limit of luggage size to be not considered oversize. Frame coupling systems on the market promote themselves as being able to do this. But I discover it is definitely not true if the bike has 450mm chainstays, 700x35c tyres, full length mudguards, rear touring rack, and a tall steering tube. This test frame is an XXL but even if it was only an M it would have been most unlikely. So I become quite sceptical about marketing of coupling systems.
See the bike symbol in the overhead sign? Riding in from the airport it is great to encounter road signs that indicate major through streets are bikeways.
Vancouver has not gone for separated paths on the city streets but for line-marked paths like this. They can seem risky to new cyclists. But they legitimise cycling and grant generous road sharing to the cycling mode. At intersections, you can go through and be at less risk from turning traffic.
Vancouver is built around a harbour. Most of the city is on the south. Lions Gate Bridge is the cycling link to North Vancouver. The whole main (south) side is one administrative local government area. Perhaps having one large administrative area is a reason they have achieved so much.
From Stanley Park on the south end of the bridge there is a comfortable cycling approach.
Lions Gate Bridge is one-way on each side due to its narrowness. Compared to Sydney Harbour Bridge, Jacques Cartier Bridge in Montreal or the big NYC bridges, the cycle-way is strikingly open (not enclosed).
Out of the city today I discover the work of beavers, chopping down trees to make a dam.
Stanley Park is one of the places where recreational cyclists can ride away from traffic. There is a road in the park for cars too. Signs on the cycle-way say, if you want to exceed 15kph then please use the road. Meanwhile, on the road the limit is 30kph and signs say yield to cycles.
Signs like this legitimise bike riding. They are thoughtful and part of a clear agenda to encourage cycling.
Where a bridge is too narrow for a separate bike lane it is made clear that we may take the lane. And it is not a small sign.
Up on the NW corner of the city fringes, more signage saying we are allowed to cross over Hwy 99. Not surprisingly, motorists have "got it" and I am not being harassed at all.
The 2008 test bike using Ritchey couplings, Tiagra shifters, front cable disc and rear cantilever. The outboard BB has started to develop a bit of movement and has me thinking of getting a square taper cartridge BB.
Not about bicycles. It is a rainy day and these guys have done a concrete pour. While the finishers work on the concrete, other workers hold a big sheet of plastic above them to stop it getting wet.
My last day and more rain. This sign underlines the difference between Sydney and Vancouver. In both cases we are allowed to ride in bus lanes. But in Sydney it is not signed that we can. Riding on Parramatta Rd for example in peak hour can be intimidating. In Vancouver it is right up there on the sign that we are permitted to ride there. And, significantly, motorcycles are not.


text:
package org.deeplearning4j.nn.conf.distribution;

import org.apache.commons.math3.exception.NumberIsTooLargeException;
import org.apache.commons.math3.exception.util.LocalizedFormats;
import org.nd4j.shade.jackson.annotation.JsonCreator;
import org.nd4j.shade.jackson.annotation.JsonProperty;

/**
 * A uniform distribution.
 *
 */
public class UniformDistribution extends Distribution {

    private double upper, lower;

    /**
     * Create a uniform real distribution using the given lower and upper
     * bounds.
     *
     * @param lower Lower bound of this distribution (inclusive).
     * @param upper Upper bound of this distribution (exclusive).
     * @throws NumberIsTooLargeException if {@code lower >= upper}.
     */
    @JsonCreator
    public UniformDistribution(@JsonProperty("lower") double lower, @JsonProperty("upper") double upper)
                    throws NumberIsTooLargeException {
        if (lower >= upper) {
            throw new NumberIsTooLargeException(LocalizedFormats.LOWER_BOUND_NOT_BELOW_UPPER_BOUND, lower, upper,
                            false);
        }
        this.lower = lower;
        this.upper = upper;
    }

    public double getUpper() {
        return upper;
    }

    public void setUpper(double upper) {
        this.upper = upper;
    }

    public double getLower() {
        return lower;
    }

    public void setLower(double lower) {
        this.lower = lower;
    }

    @Override
    public int hashCode() {
        final int prime = 31;
        int result = 1;
        long temp;
        temp = Double.doubleToLongBits(lower);
        result = prime * result + (int) (temp ^ (temp >>> 32));
        temp = Double.doubleToLongBits(upper);
        result = prime * result + (int) (temp ^ (temp >>> 32));
        return result;
    }

    @Override
    public boolean equals(Object obj) {
        if (this == obj)
            return true;
        if (obj == null)
            return false;
        if (getClass() != obj.getClass())
            return false;
        UniformDistribution other = (UniformDistribution) obj;
        if (Double.doubleToLongBits(lower) != Double.doubleToLongBits(other.lower))
            return false;
        if (Double.doubleToLongBits(upper) != Double.doubleToLongBits(other.upper))
            return false;
        return true;
    }

    public String toString() {
        return "UniformDistribution{" + "lower=" + lower + ", upper=" + upper + '}';
    }
}