For a hearty, warming Italian meal try Aldo Zilli's simple recipe for a rich and tasty sausage casserole served with polenta.
1. Heat the olive oil in a large deep pan. Add the sausages onion, garlic, carrots, celery, and leeks to the pan. Stir well and cook for 10 minutes until the sausages and onion begin to brown.
2. Add the wine, stock, apple, bay leaf and season with salt and freshly ground black pepper. Bring to the boil, reduce the heat and simmer for 40 minutes until the sausages are cooked through and the vegetables are very soft.
3. Add the borlotti beans during the final 10 minutes of cooking. If the juices need to be thickened slightly, mix the flour and butter into a paste and add, stirring constantly. Cook for a further minute.
4. Meanwhile make the polenta. Put the water in a large deep pan, add salt and bring to the boil, reduce heat and gradually add the polenta, stirring constantly with a whisk.
5. Simmer for 20 minutes until the polenta is very dense and thick and separating from the side of the pan and the grains are tender. Even if the polenta thickens before the 20 minutes are up it needs that cooking time.
6. Beat the butter and parmesan into the polenta and season to taste with salt. Stir in the parsley and add plenty of freshly ground black pepper.
7. To serve, divide the polenta between four large shallow bowls and spoon over the sausage and vegetable mixture. Spoon over the sausage juice and serve.


THIS FLOAT CASE HAS BEEN SOLD.
Barder Rod Co Leather Float Case. New for 2018.
Early this year, we commissioned one of these from Frances, our remarkable case maker. I collected it one snowy Saturday in spring. When I got into the workshop, I just had time to put the kettle on to make a cup of tea for a gentleman caller who was about to arrive. Within ten minutes of putting the new float case on the workbench, he'd paid for it, drunk his tea and scarpered. I didn't have a chance to photograph it, record its exact dimensions or even to admire it. That's the way it is sometimes when one makes and supplies special stuff.
The answer was to order another one, and here it is. The case is made from 3.5 mm thick hand stitched English full grain (the best side of the hide) vegetable tanned (not the nasty chrome treatment 99% of leather receives) bridle leather. It is lined with a heavy gauge alloy tube that is 35 centimetres deep and 6 centimetres in diameter. The alloy tube has an internal ally base plate.
The design and configuration is exactly the same as our leather rod cases. The English-made brass buckles are very high quality, and the leatherwork is outstanding. It's worth the asking price just for the smell –or should that be scent? It will hold a great many floats, but you'll have no trouble getting it in your fishing bag or creel.
Thankfully, in this increasingly peculiar world, there are plenty of keen float anglers, many of whom are using lovely hand-made floats. Float making seems to be a thriving cottage industry. This case is quite simply THE way to store and transport your treasured collection. It was made by the lady who is in charge of all things to do with harnesses and bridles at the Royal Mews, Buckingham Palace. You can tell your friends that you get your special leather gear from the same person that the Queen uses. They will envy and admire you in equal measure. Perfect!
Furthermore, if you give it the occasional treatment of high quality leather polish and don't lose it, it'll become a family heirloom, smelling faintly of copal varnish and old leather, bearing the patina of a well loved and essential angling accoutrement.
Or you could keep your best sable brushes in it.
*Floats not included. These are from my enviable collection of Colin Whitehouse floats, and they're now back in my bank's most impregnable vault.


text:
Category: Victorian Election 2010
After the blast
Some scattered thoughts on the Victorian election:
• Hats off to Peter Brent of Mumble. His pre-campaign post of October 21 was outstanding in its prescience, and his post-mortem from yesterday said it all in 278 words. I am particularly keen on the idea that the late swing to the Coalition was not so much a reaction to campaign events as something that was always going to happen when minds became focused. This happened uncommonly late in the piece due to the national politics fatigue which has inspired Possum to write off the significance of any federal polling conducted before the new year.
• This is not to say that Labor didn't make errors, and that the attack ads on Ted Baillieu's real estate undertakings weren't among them. Indeed, it may even have been enough to push them over the edge. The Roy Morgan Reactor "worm" responses to various party ads are instructive: the Baillieu Knight Frank ad was easily the most poorly received. The Liberals' positive ads also went down a lot better than Labor's, another symptom of the inherent difficulties faced by an ageing government. I suspect the Liberals did very well out of the message that voters should avoid signing on for 15 years of Labor government, which doubtless tapped into awareness of the situation north of the border.
• The debacle for the Greens ran deeper than a simple failure to win lower seats which might be blamed on Liberal preferences. Their 10.6 per cent primary vote was 2.1 per cent lower than at the federal election, and they seem likely to lose one of their three seats in the upper house. My guess is that extravagant claims for their place in a new paradigm lost them support they would normally get from voters who are indifferent to them ideologically, but simply seeking somewhere to park a protest vote. Compounding this was the Liberals' preference decision, which as well as being damaging in purely instrumental terms reinforced perceptions of a party with a hard ideological edge. It would also have had many questioning their competence, and there was no figure in the state party of Bob Brown's authority to help negate the idea.
• The election provided a further blow to new paradigm talk by producing the state or federal election result since 1993 in which no independent or minor party candidates won election to the lower house. The defeat of the Assembly's sole independent, Craig Ingram in Gippsland East, would be troubling news for Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott, with Ingram citing locals' desire to avoid a repeat of the federal election aftermath as a reason for the fatal 14.1 per cent drop in his primary vote.
• Here's a colour-coded map giving an idea of the swings recorded across Victoria. Labor-versus-Coalition figures in Mildura, Gippsland East and the four inner-city seats have been obtained by using preference flows from the last election. Apart from Labor's relatively strong performance in the north and north-west of the state, nothing particularly stands out. Sophomore surges are evident in Ferntree Gully, Kilsyth, Hastings, Evelyn and especially Morwell, which Labor were surprised to lose in 2006 and are now locked out by an impressive 15 per cent margin for Nationals member Russell Northe. This is part of an ongoing story of Labor decay in the Latrobe Valley which has been evident at state and federal level over the past five years in particular. Retiring member effects explain the slight swing to Labor in Murray Valley, and perhaps also the heavy swing against them in Essendon. I wouldn't read too much into the swing to Labor in Mildura, where comparisons are complicated by the fact that there was a sitting independent last time, which may have corrupted my preference calculation.
Author William BowePosted on Monday, November 29, 2010 Monday, November 29, 2010 Categories Victorian Election 20101,039 Comments on After the blast
Victorian election: photo finishes
BENTLEIGH (Margin: 6.20%)
ALP LIB Swing 2006 votes
Ordinary 12,650 50.11% 12,595 49.89% 7.12% 27,106
Postal 1,491 45.28% 1,802 54.72% 4.45% 2,785
Early 1,857 47.04% 2,091 52.96% 3.25% 2,223
Provisional 109 60.22% 72 39.78% 20.73% 21
Absent 1,062 50.26% 1,051 49.74% 7.68% 1,643
TOTAL 17,169 49.36% 17,611 50.64% 6.84% 33,778
ELTHAM (Margin: 6.41%)
Provisional 96 51.89% 89 48.11% 14.78% 6
Absent 1,234 56.68% 943 43.32% 4.05% 1,775
BALLARAT EAST (Margin: 6.81%)
Provisional 158 54.30% 133 45.70% 2.51% 0
MACEDON (Margin: 8.17%)
Provisional 139 62.61% 83 37.39% -12.61% 16
ALP LIB NAT GRN OTH IN DOUBT
Eastern Metro 2 3
Northern Metro 2 (-1) 2 (+1) 1
South-Eastern Metro 3 2
Southern Metro 1 (-1) 3 (+1) 1
Western Metro 2 (-1) 2 (+1) 1
Eastern Victoria 2 2 1
Northern Victoria 2 2 1
Western Victoria 2 2 1 (+1) 0 (-1)
TOTAL 16 18 3 3 0 0
The button was pushed today on the count for the Legislative Council, securing the Coalition its 21 seats out of 40 and wrapping up the election count as a whole. Key to the Coalition triumph was Liberal candidate Craig Ondarchie's victory in Northern Metropolitan from the second position on his party's ticket, producing a result of two Labor, two Liberal and one Greens. His win came at the expense of Stephen Mayne, who in the event finished fairly solidly behind the second Greens candidate (2.6 per cent to 1.6 per cent) at a point where he had hoped to stay in contention by absorbing her preferences, and the Sex Party, who with 7.4 per cent failed to stay ahead of third Labor candidate Nathan Murphy on 9.1 per cent at the second last count. At that point the second Ondarchie was far enough ahead of Murphy that there was no prospect of preferences closing the gap, with the former sneaking over a quota on preferences from Mayne. In Western Metropolitan, below-the-line votes made the difference by heavily favouring the Greens – largely because below-the-lines for right-wing minor parties who had put Labor ahead of the Greens on their preference ticket tended to exhaust. The rate of exhaustion was such that Colleen Hartland won election with slightly under a quota, finishing on 16.6 per cent to Labor candidate Bob Smith on 16.2 per cent.
As you may have noticed I've been less than vigilant in following the count, but those with an interest will be aware that Stephen Mayne continued to fade in late counting in terms that will almost certainly deliver the final Northern Metropolitan seat to the Liberals, securing the Coalition their upper house majority. The only remaining point of curiosity is whether Colleen Hartland of the Greens can secure re-election in Western Metropolitan, thereby achieving a status quo result for a party that had hoped for so much better. Antony Green reports all will be revealed when the button is finally pushed on Tuesday. Hopefully there will be no repeat of the 2006 error in which the Democratic Labor Party was wrongly credited with a second seat.
Stopped paying attention there for a while after the VEC started re-checking and took their existing results offline. Antony Green offers a thorough update, noting that recounting in Northern Metropolitan is proceeding slowly due to intensive scrutineering of the result that could deliver the Coalition an upper house majority. In Western Metropolitan, the tide seems to be favouring the Greens' Colleen Hartland, who might yet retain her seat at the expense of Labor's number three. UPDATE: Kevin Bonham in comments still rates her the underdog.
Stephen Mayne has discussed his prospects at length in his email newsletter, noting he has two hurdles to clear: first to stay ahead of the Greens at what appears as count 8 in the ABC's projection, where he is currently on 1.54 per cent to the Greens' 1.22 per cent, and then for the below-the-line count to not upset his applecart by putting him behind Liberal and Labor at the second last count. Mayne rates himself only a 50-50 chance of clearing the first hurdle as he expects the Greens to surge as absent votes are added. I'm not sure what was added today, but the addition has seen the Greens lose ground – possibly too much for Mayne, as Kevin Bonham argues in comments, because it will mean fewer of their preferences for him if he can stay ahead. Bonham reckons Mayne will need to significantly outperform Labor in preferences from the 3170 below-the-line votes which are recorded as going to him on the ABC projection, which treats all votes as above-the-lines. Bonham, who has learned a thing or two about preference behaviour from analysis of Hare-Clark elections in his home jurisdiction of Tasmania, reckons this unlikely, and that the most probable result would indeed be a twenty-first seat for the Coalition.
In the lower house, addition of absent and other votes have seen Labor pull further ahead in Eltham and Ballarat East, to 546 and 510 votes respectively, which puts these seats and the final result beyond doubt: the Liberals have won 35 seats and the Nationals 10, with Labor on 43. I will continue updating my tables as new figures come in, but I won't be offering any further commentary on the lower house unless something unusually interesting happens.
Long past time I had something to say about the upper house, with the Coalition on the precipice of majorities in both houses. The Liberals have gained a seat from Labor in Southern Metropolitan and the Nationals have gained the DLP's seat in Western Victoria. They also look likely to win seats from the Greens in Western Metropolitan and to hold off a challenge from the Country Alliance in Northern Victoria, where their second seat had been under threat. That puts the Coalition on 18 seats out of 40 with a likely extra two to achieve a blocking majority, and the chance of getting over the line for an absolute majority of 21. The decisive factor in Northern Metropolitan will be the second last count, at which the Labor number three, Liberal number two and Stephen Mayne appear to be at almost level pegging. Mayne will win the seat if he finishes ahead of either or both, and the current ABC projection has him finishing ahead of Labor after soaking up the Greens' surplus and an eclectic range of preferences from the Sex Party, DLP and Family First. Should he finish behind the seat will almost certainly go to the Liberals, although Labor remain at least a mathematical possibility.
In continuing lower counting, Labor's lead has more than doubled in Ballarat East, from 166 to 343, with the addition of 657 more postals and the first 766 absents. It was the latter which made the difference, breaking 60-40 their way – not unpredictably given that most would be sourced from town voters who cast their ballots in Ballarat West. Eltham too has become slightly firmer for Labor with 795 more pre-polls gaining them a handy 53 votes, but losses on rechecking have pared back the overall improvement in their lead, which goes from 245 to 267. Bentleigh and Macedon have drifted out of the doubtful column. Rechecking and a highly unfavourable batch of 819 absent votes has further increased the Liberal lead in Bentleigh from 460 to 559. In Macedon, the addition of 419 postal votes has cut Labor's lead from 498 to 419, but it's probably too little too late.
9pm. Another 605 postals in Bentleigh have broken 321-284 the Liberals' way, increasing their lead from 423 to 460. In Eltham the addition of 5730 pre-polls and 600 more postals has increased Labor's lead from 225 to 245. I'm not sure on what basis Labor sources quoted in the ABC yesterday were expecting to lose this seat – I would rate them better than even. Another 416 postal votes have been added in Ballarat East and have broken perfectly evenly, with Labor continuing to lead by 166.
4.30pm. Labor has had a disappointing result from 2268 pre-polls in Ballarat East which have cut their lead from 388 to 166. The addition of 5111 pre-polls from Macedon has also cut their lead from 719 to 498. However, absent votes remain to be added, and in both cases they favoured Labor heavily in 2006.
11pm. Bob Katter's Hat in comments relates that according to an ABC report, "Labor sources expect to lose Eltham but are 'hopeful' on Macedon".
6.41pm. If there are the same number of absent votes as last time, and if anything there are likely to be fewer, they would need to defy every trend going by swinging to Labor by 5 per cent to overturn the Liberals' lead.
6.34pm. The VEC site has now updated, and it has the Liberal lead at 15,667 to 15,244. The Herald-Sun's assertion that only "some postal votes" remain to be counted is at best imprecise, as no absent votes have been added – and there were 1643 of these in 2010. So what we have today is the addition of 3130 pre-poll votes which, as stated in the previous entry, have broken 1670 to 1460 in favour of the Liberals and increased their lead from 213 to 423. The table at the top of the post has now been amended to reflect this. As you can see, the notion that there would be more of these than last time and that they would be relatively favourable to Labor was quite correct, but not nearly to the extent they required. So it's fair to say that the ABC computer, which has copped some flak over this, was right all along.
6.12pm. Boerwar in comments reports postals have favoured 1670 to 1460 to the Liberals – I'm not sure if this includes or is in addition to those counted last night, which favoured the Liberals 1072 to 1050. An update on the VEC tally room site would be nice.
6.09pm. The Herald-Sun reports that there are now merely "some postal votes" remaining to be counted, so obviously absent votes as well as pre-polls have been counted (although I fail to see how absent votes could have been assembled so quickly from every corner of the state). In any case, a very clear impression emerges that barring counting errors, the Liberal lead of about 400 is insurmountable, ending any doubts about the overall result.
5.45pm. Rod Hagen in comments hears from Twitter that pre-poll counting in Bentleigh is trending against Labor, increasing the Liberal lead from 213 to 430.
5pm. By popular demand, the VEC have announced they will be counting the pre-poll votes from Bentleigh today. In what promises to be the television event of the year, this will apparently be broadcast live on Sky News.
This thread will be used to follow late counting in the Victorian election, which – for those who have just joined us – promises to be a focus of fierce interest due to the possibility of a 44-44 tied parliament if everything falls Labor's way. For now you'll have to look elsewhere for a summary of the situation. However, below is a table which will hopefully shed some light on a few important aspects of the situation. Four must-win seats are identified in the table, of which Labor currently leads in three while trailing by 213 votes (0.38 per cent) in Bentleigh. The first row of the table shows two-party results from ordinary votes, thus excluding the postals that were added last night. To give an idea of how the remainder of the count might go, the next five rows show Labor's two-party results on the various types of vote in 2006. The story goes that a large number of pre-polls might offer salvation here for Labor in Bentleigh, but that would seem very unlikely indeed going on the precedent of last time. However, Labor is doing slightly less poorly on postal votes than last time — their primary vote is only 1.5 per cent lower — so there might be at least something in the idea that votes cast earlier would not have copped the effects of the late swing to the Coalition. The left column shows the percentage of the statewide vote accounted for by each vote type in 2010. The bottom half of the table shows the ordinary vote turnout in each electorate, which as you may have heard was substantially lower than last time.
ALP 2PP
% Bentleigh Eltham Macedon Ball. East
2010 Ordinary ? 50.0% 50.8% 51.2% 50.9%
2006 Ordinary 78.0% 57.2% 56.8% 58.7% 56.8%
2006 Pre-Poll 9.0% 50.3% 56.5% 56.2% 53.8%
2006 Postal 6.5% 49.7% 49.5% 54.9% 52.1%
2006 Absent 6.5% 57.9% 60.7% 61.0% 63.8%
2006 Declaration 0.1% 81.0% 44.4% 50.0% –
Ordinary votes as percentage of enrolment
2006 75.5% 74.3% 69.1% 73.9%
Finally, can we please keep this thread specifically for discussion of the count. If you would like to discuss the Victorian election in more general terms, the election night thread is still open below.
Author William BowePosted on Sunday, November 28, 2010 Tuesday, December 14, 2010 Categories Victorian Election 2010292 Comments on Victorian election: photo finishes
Victorian election live
12.04pm. Those postal votes have been very favourable for Labor in Narre Warren North, increasing their lead from 804 to a probably insurmountable 1022.
11.30pm. Awaiting 830 postal votes to be added to the two-party count in Narre Warren North, which I would say is the only thing further we're likely to get tonight in a significant seat.
11.23pm. 2475 postals added in Narre Warren North, increasing Labor's lead from 773 to 804.
11.19pm. 2122 postal votes added in Macedon, reducing Labor's lead from 741 to 719.
11.12pm. Labor leads by 225 votes (0.4 per cent) in Eltham, with 2013 postal votes added to the count.
11.09pm. Hadn't heard anyone mention Eltham, but it seems Labor still only have their nose in front.
10.59pm. The VEC has added 1958 postal votes from Monbulk, and their lead is now out to 1.9 per cent.
10.53pm. Same story in Narre Warren North – the VEC has Labor ahead 773, the ABC has it at only 190, with much the same number of votes counted. The VEC has a booth on the primary vote that the ABC doesn't have, and it's increased the Labor vote 0.4 per cent and reduced the Liberal vote 0.3 per cent.
10.46pm. Actually, the VEC's figures from Macedon aren't more advanced than the ABC's, they're just different – both have almost exactly 30,600 votes added. So I've no idea why the discrepancy.
10.38pm. The ABC computer seems to have a more up-to-date two-party figure from Bentleigh than the VEC. 2538 postal votes have been added in this seat, whereas there are none yet in the other crucial three, but only half have been added to the VEC two-party count. The ABC however seems to have them all, and has the Liberals leading by 624 votes (1.1 per cent) rather than 213 (0.4 per cent).
10.28pm. Now looking at VEC figures, which are further advanced in Macedon and Narre Warren North and have Labor surging ahead in both, with respective leads of 1.2 per cent and 1.8 per cent.
10.17pm. Another Narre Warren North booth turns a 0.3 per cent Labor deficit into a 0.4 per cent surplus.
10.15pm. Antony also has Labor pulling negligibly ahead in Monbulk, with Daniel Andrews sounding confident – "maybe not even in the doubtful column".
10.14pm. Daniel Andrews claims counts in all booths counted have Labor ahead in Macedon, where the ABC computer projects a 0.4 per cent Liberal lead.
10.11pm. ABC computer count in Bentleigh has caught up with David Davis's – two booths left to report two-party counts, Liberals ahead 13,302 to 12,690, lead by 1.2 per cent.
10.09pm. Albert Park count goes from 45.4 per cent to 53.8 per cent, Labor lead goes from 0.3 per cent to 0.5 per cent.
10.03pm. David Davis's latest figures from Bentleigh have Liberals moving further ahead – 11,892 to 11,175, or 1.6 per cent.
9.55pm. Ben Raue on the upper house:
On my count the Coalition has 21 seats out of 40 in the Legislative Council. Labor has at least 13, with the Greens on 3. In North and East Victoria, Labor is competing with the Country Alliance. Country Alliance will win in either region if the Greens knock out Labor, as Labor preferenced the Country Alliance ahead of the Greens. In South East Metro Labor is competing with the Greens, but I'm on the verge of calling it for Labor.
9.50pm. A run through the seats of destiny. Labor trails by 0.2 per cent in Monbulk with 67.5 per cent counted with one booth to come. In Bentleigh the ABC's figures are behind what we were told earlier, which is that with most (all?) counting done for tonight the Liberal lead is down to 0.4 per cent. In Macedon too Labor trails by 0.4 per cent with one booth to come. Liberals ahead by 0.3 per cent in Narre Warren North with two booths to come. If Labor wins them all it will be 44-44.
9.48pm. Labor confirms it won't concede tonight – sounding growingly hopeful of hung parliament.
9.43pm. Peter Reith has apparently criticised Antony Green on Sky News for calling the election too early – he's only sure 11 seats have gone. If Labor can burrow ahead in Bentleigh, Macedon, Narre Warren North and Monbulk, it will a 44-44 hung parliament and a new election.
9.40pm. Labor hanging on to only a slight lead of 0.3 per cent in Albert Park with 45.4 per cent counted.
9.37pm. This is the first federal or state election since South Australian in 1993 in which no independent or minor party candidates have been elected to the lower house.
9.34pm. David Davis relates figures fron Bentleigh with Libs leading 10,303 to 10,129 – a margin of just 0.4 per cent.
9.06pm. With count up from 29 per cent to 35 per cent, Labor has gone from dead level in Albert Park to 0.3 per cent ahead, which Antony expects to continue.
9.02pm. If preferences had gone as they did in 2006, the Greens would be on 56.3 per cent in Melbourne, 52.5 per cent in Richmond, 51.0 per cent in Brunswick and 45.3 per cent in Northcote.
8.57pm. Daniel Andrews says computer is behind on Bentleigh – with one big pro-Labor booth to go, he thinks they could still get there, but with only limited confidence.
8.51pm. Antony can't see the Liberals winning Albert Park, even though the computer has them 0.1 per cent ahead with 28.6 per cent counted.
8.50pm. Monbulk continuing to go back and forth, Liberals now in front by 0.2 per cent with 66.1 per cent counted.
8.44pm. Labor moves to the lead in Monbulk, by 0.1 per cent, as count progresses from 48 per cent to 65 per cent.
8.43pm. Labor now ahead in Albert Park by the skin of their teeth, after the count progresses from 14 per cent to 21 per cent.
8.41pm. Macedon count up from 56 per cent to 62 per cent, Liberal lead goes from 0.5 per cent to 0.6 per cent, ABC prediction goes from Liberal ahead to Liberal gain, though obviously not on much basis.
8.39pm. ABC TV has 26.3 per cent rather than 18.8 per cent counted in Bentleigh, but the Liberal lead is basically unchanged. But Daniel Andrews expects better of later booths.
8.36pm. If Labor can somehow fluke wins in each of Bentleigh, Monbulk, Macedon, Albert Park, and Narre Warren North, they would still have 44 seats for a hung parliament in the genuine sense of the term. But they're behind in all. Might want to stop and note the fact that after all the new paradigm talk of late, we now have a Legislative Assembly with no cross-benchers.
8.34pm. Daniel Andrews not giving away Bentleigh, not unreasonably because only 18.8 per cent is counted, although the Liberals lead by 2.5 per cent. Albert Park count remains very slow.
8.30pm. ABC calling Ballarat West for Labor.
8.29pm. Liberal lead in Monbulk only 0.9 per cent, so if you subscribe to the theory they'll do better on late counting you wouldn't be giving it away.
8.28pm. ABC now calling Monbulk a Liberal gain.
8.23pm. Labor can't afford to lose 11 seats, and 12 look definitely gone. Liberal leads in Macedon, Albert Park and Narre Warren North could yet be chased down if late counting does indeed favour Labor.
8.20pm. Albert Park count up from 9 per cent to 13 per cent, Libs still slightly ahead.
8.16pm. ABC calls Bentleigh for Liberal, Yan Yean for Labor.
8.13pm. Slow count in Albert Park.
8.12pm. ABC computer calling Bendigo East for Labor.
8.10pm. Liberals now ahead in Monbulk.
8.09pm. Still lineball in Narre Warren North, but Labor retains Narre Warren South.
8.08pm. Labor retains Ballarat East, loses Bentleigh, ahead in Ballarat West and Eltham.
8.07pm. ABC computer figures update!
8.04pm. Labor in trouble in Oakleigh as well.
8.03pm. Labor looking gone in Mordialloc, but the computer's not giving it.
8.02pm. ABC party bods not ready to call Prahran yet.
8.00pm. Still waiting for ABC computer results to update …
7.59pm. Maybe Antony wasn't quite calling it for the Coalition. Daniel Andrews not giving up South Barwon.
7.59pm. Antony calling Prahran and South Barwon for the Liberals.
7.58pm. Craig Ingram concedes defeat. Antony calls the election for the Coalition.
7.56pm. No good news for the Greens.
7.55pm. Labor now looking better in Geelong.
7.54pm. Macedon seems to be better for Labor now, but I say that without the benefit of booth matching.
7.53pm. Antony says he has his internet back, but the website figures haven't updated yet.
7.52pm. Still tight in Narre Warren North; Labor ahead in Yan Yean.
7.51pm. Liberals home and hosed in Burwood.
7.48pm. No internet connection for the ABC due to technical problems at the totally unnecessary tally room. Liberals well ahead of Prahran, but this electorate is such that you'd need to look at the booth results. Liberals easily ahead in Mitcham and Forest Hill.
7.44pm. I'm counting 11 seats where the Coalition are ahead of Labor, with no figures in from Forest Hill and Mitcham which they will surely win, and nothing from Prahran and Burwood.
7.40pm. Geelong and Albert Park also tight, despite margins of around 10 per cent.
7.39pm. Early 11.5 per cent swing in Macedon – easily enough for it to fall. Narre Warren North lineball.
7.38pm. Labor ahead in Monbulk on early figures.
7.37pm. Labor holding firm in Bendigo East as well as Ripon. So Newspoll looking good, again.
7.36pm. Computer not calling it, but Labor well ahead in Mordialloc.
7.34pm. ABC computer not calling Mount Waverley, but Antony is.
7.29pm. However, Ripon called ALP retain, but Labor merely "ahead" in Yan Yean.
7.25pm. ABC computer calls Gembrook, Carrum and Seymour for the Liberals – the latter two make it very hard for Labor.
7.20pm. Phil Cleary bombing in Brunswick. Greens and Labor level pegging on primary vote.
7.18pm. ABC computer calls Gippsland East a gain for the Nationals from independent Craig Ingram. Labor ahead in Eltham.
7.17pm. Antony detecting overall swing of 6 per cent, more or less where this morning's polls had it but better for Labor than the exit poll.
7.16pm. Sorry, had that the wrong way around – 65 per cent of those preferences went to LABOR.
7.11pm. Greens get 65 per cent of preferences from first booth reporting in Richmond.
7.08pm. Ballarat East being discussed on the ABC, which Labor weren't worried about a week ago.
7.07pm. It looks to me like only the entry page on the ABC results is providing booth-matched 2PP results – click on the link and you get raw comparisons. So the swing in Ripon looks like 0.5 per cent and not 11.0 per cent, though it's early days.
7.01pm. First booth in from Northcote has Greens primary vote on 50.14 per cent – but it's a new booth, so we can't match it.
6.59pm. Antony Green detects 7 per cent swing in the metropolitan area, 6 per cent in regional cities.
6.54pm. Antony Green sounding almost ready to call Gippsland East a Nationals gain from independent Craig Ingram.
6.52pm. Overall early swing seems to be under 4 per cent, but this is mostly rural booths where the polling suggested the swing wouldn't be so big.
6.49pm. In yet more bad news for Labor, Electoral Commissioner Steve Tully reports the weather has hit turnout.
6.47pm. Tiny booth (203 votes), but 22.4 per cent swing against Labor in Ripon.
6.46pm. Five booths in from Mildura, and Nats member Peter Crisp has picked up a booth-matched primary vote swing of 24 per cent. So I wouldn't bank on Glenn Milne causing an upset.
6.42pm. Two booths and 180 votes, but Craig Ingram down 12 per cent in Gippsland East.
6.40pm. An independent, whom I know nothing about, is supposedly in with a show in Essendon.
6.33pm. A tiny booth in Nationals-held Mildura (81 votes) has supposedly competitive independent Glenn Milne on 5.6 per cent.
6.27pm. To brace yourself for what's likely to come, Madcyril in comments relates that according to the ABC, Labor is "worried" about Justin Madden's seat of Essendon (11.7 per cent) – the sort of seat that fell in 1992.
6.19pm. Auspoll finds 11 per cent decided today, 9 per cent last three days, 10 per cent last week, 17 per cent last month and 52 before that – a high proportion of late deciders, if the shift to the Coalition hadn't already made that clear.
6.13pm. It seems the Auspoll figures are a straight result from the 18 seats targeted, and that this included the four Labor-versus-Greens contests. The upshot of this is that the swing is 8 per cent, putting the Coalition on track for over 50 seats. Bruce Hawkins on Sky News putting vague hope in pre-polls lodged before the late swing favouring Labor.
6.02pm. Primary votes of 35 per cent, 45 per cent and 12 per cent, Brumby leads as preferred premier 43-35.
6pm. Sky News exit poll tips an easy win to the Coalition, with a two-party lead of 54-46. However, I can never be sure what these figures mean – this looks at the 18 most marginal seats rather than a statewide result. What we need to know is the swing. It should also be known that the pollster, Auspoll, has gotten it wrong before.
Author William BowePosted on Saturday, November 27, 2010 Monday, November 29, 2010 Categories Victorian Election 20101,694 Comments on Victorian election live
Nielsen: 52-48 to Coalition in Victoria; Newspoll: 51.1-48.9
GhostWhoVotes reports an unpleasant surprise for Victorian Labor in the final Nielsen poll of the campaign, which has the Coalition seizing a 52-48 two-party lead. More to follow.
UPDATE: And now Newspoll confirms the picture of a late swing of considerable force, putting the Coalition in front 51.1-48.9. Labor's primary vote is at just 33 per cent, with the Coalition on 45 per cent and the Greens at 15 per cent.
UPDATE 2: Newspoll was conducted from Tuesday to Thursday from a sample of 1451, boosted from the normally 1000-ish as usual for a final pre-election poll. John Brumby is down four on approval to 38 per cent and up four on disapproval to 52 per cent, while Ted Baillieu is up four to 44 per cent and down two to 44 per cent. Brumby nonetheless leads as preferred premier 48 per cent to 38 per cent, and Labor is expected to win by 55 per cent against 26 per cent for the Coalition. Full tables here courtesy of GhostWhoVotes.
The Age reports the primary votes from Nielsen are Labor 34 per cent, Coalition 45 per cent and Greens 14 per cent – a very similar set of figures to Newspoll, suggesting the 52 per cent Liberal two-party result has benefited from rounding. Nielsen has better personal ratings for both leaders: Brumby is on 46 per cent approval and 47 per cent disapproval, with Baillieu on 48 per cent and 42 per cent. Brumby's lead as preferred premier is narrower, at 49-44.
UPDATE 3: The Newspoll metropolitan/non-metropolitan breakdowns are an eye-opener: Labor's metropolitan vote is recorded as slumping from 47.4 per cent in 2006 to just 34 per cent, with the Liberals up from 34.5 per cent to 43 per cent. Yet for all the talk of a regional backlash, Labor's non-metropolitan primary vote is only down from 36.1 per cent to 32 per cent, and the Coalition are treading water on 48 per cent compared with 47.8 per cent in 2006. In two-party terms, I'm calculating a metropolitan swing of 10 per cent, but a non-metropolitan swing of less than 2 per cent. This is a super-sized version of the JWS Research poll, which respectively had it at 5.4 per cent and 0.2 per cent.
If such swings were uniform, Labor would lose government in Melbourne alone with the loss of 14 seats all the way up to Albert Park (9.7 per cent) without dropping a single seat outside Melbourne. Of course, it won't play out exactly like that – Albert Park I expect is too established an area to swing that big, and outside Melbourne Labor expects to lose at least South Barwon and is very nervous about Ripon and Bendigo East as well. Election watchers should keep an eye on not only Yan Yean (7.9 per cent) but volatile outer suburban Narre Warren North (9.2 per cent) and Narre Warren South (11.1 per cent). If these seats look shaky, Newspoll has it right and Labor are gone. But if it's not as bad for them as all that, I suggest it will come down to the Melbourne seats in the 6 to 7 per cent range (Bentleigh, Eltham and Carrum) along with Ripon and Bendigo East.
Without wishing to call the game too early, the prescience of Peter Brent at Mumble should be noted: the scenario just outlined was exactly as he saw it on October 21.
UPDATE 4: Here's an update of my earlier table.
Sample, Dates ALP 2PP ALP L-NP GRN
Nielsen 1533, 24-25/11 48 34 45 14
Newspoll 1451, 24-25/11 48.9 33 45 15
Galaxy 800, 23-24/11 50 36 44 14
Morgan 990, 22-25/11 49 35.5 44.5 13
JWS Research 9218, 20-22/11 50.1 35 39 19
Morgan 943, 16-18/11 52.5 39 41.5 15.5
Newspoll 1000, 9-11/11 51 37 44 14
2006 ELECTION 54.4 43.1 39.6 10.0
And here are the Labor two-party figures with a trend line running through them.
Author William BowePosted on Friday, November 26, 2010 Saturday, November 27, 2010 Categories Victorian Election 2010482 Comments on Nielsen: 52-48 to Coalition in Victoria; Newspoll: 51.1-48.9
Morgan: 51-49 to Coalition in Victoria
A Morgan phone poll has provided further evidence of a late shift to the Coalition to add to that from Galaxy, recording a 51-49 lead to the Coalition which as far as I can tell is the first time they have led in a poll since early 2005. Morgan sceptics should note that there is no reason to believe their phone polls are any less reliable than anyone else's. The sample is 990, which is superficially highly respectable but seems to include the 327 respondents from the inner-city poll published earlier in the week – if so the margin-of-error is between 3.5 and 4 per cent. The poll has the Coalition leading on the primary vote 44.5 per cent to 35.5 per cent with the Greens on 13 per cent, their weakest showing of any poll in the campaign. John Brumby's lead as preferred premier has narrowed to 43.5-39, and he has crashed to a minus 12.5 per cent personal rating with 34 per cent approval and 46.5 per cent disapproval. Ted Baillieu is on 40 per cent approval and 39 per cent disapproval.
You can read my final review of the situation in Crikey.
Author William BowePosted on Friday, November 26, 2010 Friday, November 26, 2010 Categories Victorian Election 2010148 Comments on Morgan: 51-49 to Coalition in Victoria
Galaxy: 50-50 in Victoria
GhostWhoVotes reports a Galaxy poll has it at 50-50 in Victoria, the best result for the Coalition of the campaign. More to follow.
UPDATE: The Herald-Sun has a report which tells us the primary votes are 36 per cent for Labor (the same as in the 500 sample poll Galaxy reportedly conducted for the Victorian Association of Forest Industries), the Coalition on 44 per cent (two points higher) and the Greens on 14 per cent (two points lower). Other findings are that John Brumby leads Ted Baillieu as preferred premier 52-35; Brumby is more trusted to keep his promises 42-34; and Brumby is rated to have conducted the better campaign 46-31. I'm not quite sure what to make of this, but only 18 per cent say if Labor is re-elected it will be because they deserve to be against 54 per cent who say it will be because they deserve to lose, whereas the figures are more positive for the Coalition: 30 per cent say if they win it will be because they deserved it, against 54 per cent who say it would be because Labor deserved to lose. Possibly it's a reflection of the fact that more of the respondents who landed on Coalition's side of the two-party divide got there via primary votes rather than preferences.
UPDATE 2: All polls from the campaign period:
Sample/Dates (Nov) ALP 2PP ALP LNP GRN
Galaxy (800/23-24) 50 36 44 14
JWS Research (9218/20-22) 50.1 35 39 19
Morgan (943/16-18) 52.5 39 41.5 15.5
Nielsen (1000/10-11) 52 38 40 16
Newspoll (1000/9-11) 51 37 44 14
UPDATE 3: Other happenings:
• The Herald-Sun, The Age and The Australian have all backed Labor in their election eve editorials. Have to wait and see for the paywalled Financial Review, but taking the Sunday papers into account, it's otherwise been an editorial clean sweep for Labor.
• John Ferguson of the Herald-Sun rates Mt Waverley, Gembrook, Forest Hill, Mitcham, Frankston, Prahran and Bentleigh "in real danger of falling", Melbourne "could fall to the Greens" and "speculation abounds of Bendigo West falling", but Seymour is "tipped to stay with Labor". However, "Labor may not hold on to Footscray – a result that would surprise many".
• Paul Austin of The Age notes the parallels between the current election and 1999: a Premier perceived as arrogant, a 2 to 3 per cent swing at the previous election, an opposition needing 13 seats to win, a feeling that this is a few more than even optimistic projections could deliver, and the latent possibily that a rural backlash could nonetheless make it happen.
• The Herald-Sun has asked various pundits for opinions on who will and should win. Derryn Hinch reckons it too close to call, but Neil Mitchell, Steve Price, Peter van Onselen, Barrie Cassidy, Ross Fitzgerald, Jill Singer and Nick Economou are all willing to punt for Labor. Hinch and Price think the Liberals should win, van Onselen, Fitzgerald, Singer and Economou think Labor, and Mitchell and Cassidy won't say.
• Tim Colebatch of The Age reviews the situation in the upper house, rating the Greens "almost certain" to hold the balance of power with a representation of five seats.
• The Greens' number two candidate for the upper house region of Eastern Victoria, Cheryl Wragg, has been disendorsed by her party after repeated public criticisms of the party's policy to close the Hazelwood power station within four years. Wragg will still be listed in the Greens group on the ballot paper, but will henceforth be running as an independent.
• The Greens have ceased distributing a flyer it was circulating in the electorate of Melbourne which claimed Labor "accepts donations from developers, alcohol gambling and tobacco" after a complaint to the Victorian Electoral Commission. Melbourne candidate Brian Walters has accepted the claim in relation to tobacco was wrong, blaming the error on the volunteer researcher.
• Royce Millar of The Age reports that in response to his beat-up on Tuesday about party databases, Ted Baillieu has said he would make available information kept on constituents "to the maximum extent reasonable" and provide reasons for any refusal, while John Brumby declined to give such an undertaking.
• The Herald-Sun reports Nationals leader Peter Ryan is seeking to emulate Anna Bligh and Tony Abbott with "a 30-hour, 30-town blitz to finish off the campaign".
• Those who fancy the Coalition's chances can get $4.65 from Flemington Sportsbet, $4.50 from Centrebet and Sportingbet and $4.25 from Sportsbet.
Author William BowePosted on Friday, November 26, 2010 Friday, November 26, 2010 Categories Victorian Election 2010121 Comments on Galaxy: 50-50 in Victoria
Inner Melbourne Morgan phone micro-poll
Roy Morgan hasn't let itself be put off by the flak it copped with last week's small-sample poll results from the four inner-city Labor-versus-Greens contests, repeating the exercise with only a slightly larger sample of 327 respondents. Taken together they show Labor leading the Greens 53-47, which is seven points better for Labor than last week's poll. All told this points to a 3 per cent swing to the Greens compared with 2006, which if uniform would just tip Labor out in Melbourne, but leave them safe in Richmond, Brunswick and Northcote. This is indeed borne out by the seat-by-seat breakdowns, which have it at 50-50 in Melbourne, 57-43 in Richmond, 52-48 in Brunswick and 52.5-47.5 in Northcote. The margin of error on the combined result is approaching 5.5 per cent.
UPDATE: Now Morgan offers a spiffy video display of "worm"-style Reactor responses to various election ads. It finds Coalition voters were far more positive about their own side's advertising than were Labor's, but that Labor appeared to offer both the most (attacking Liberal spending plans) and least (the famous Baillieu Knight Frank ad) effective attack ads. Labor also did pretty well among independents and Greens with a humanised John Brumby's fireside chat on the economy. Labor's "meerkat" and the Liberals' "are we there yet" attack ads failed to impress Greens and independents in roughly equal measure, but the Liberals did better with their "mouldy fruit" ad. The Greens ad, once it began laying on the hard sell, found Labor voters responding barely less positively than to ads from their own side, while Coalition and independent voters headed south.
Author William BowePosted on Wednesday, November 24, 2010 Wednesday, November 24, 2010 Categories Victorian Election 2010403 Comments on Inner Melbourne Morgan phone micro-poll
JWS Research: Victorian Labor to lose seven to 10 seats
The Herald-Sun reports an automated phone poll by JWS Research, such as the one it conducted a week before the federal election, shows the Liberals "on track to win Mount Waverley, Forest Hill, Mitcham, South Barwon, Mordialloc and Burwood" and the Greens "likely to gain Brunswick". The Labor-versus-Greens contests of Melbourne and Richmond and the Labor-versus Liberal contest of Prahran too close to call. On the worst of these scenarios for Labor they would hold a bare majority of 45 seats out of 88; on the best, that would go up to 48. I will review how well the JWS Research federal poll performed when I get time.
UPDATE: Full results from JWS Research:
Sample 2006 POLL
Brunswick (vs GRN) 300 54.6 47
Richmond (vs GRN) 285 53.6 51
Melbourne (vs GRN) 222 52 49
Ballarat East 345 56.7 54
Ballarat West 339 56.6 59
Bentleigh 351 56.4 57
Bendigo East 420 55.4 54
Ripon 288 54.4 53
Burwood 373 53.8 43
Prahran 269 53.6 50
Mordialloc 325 53.6 42
Frankston 324 53.3 54
South Barwon 384 52.3 44
Mitcham 376 52 48
Forest Hill 357 50.8 47
Gembrook 349 50.7 52
Mt Waverley 372 50.4 44
Ferntree Gully 283 49.9 36
Kilsyth 318 49.6 47
Hastings 296 49.0 42
Narracan 350 47.3 40
Bayswater 324 47.1 44
Box Hill 380 44.7 40
Gippsland East (IND vs NAT) 580 58.5 (IND) 43 (IND)
UPDATE 2: From Roy Morgan: "Labor surge in Inner City Melbourne Means ALP Set to Retain Four Inner City Seats. Full results available tomorrow from a special telephone Morgan Poll of the key inner Melbourne Seats of Brunswick, Melbourne, Northcote & Richmond."
UPDATE 3: John Scales of JWS Research writes:
To confirm/explain a couple of questions for your readers:
• Yes, we do weight by age and gender according to ABS stats, they are the first questions asked after the introduction and eligibility question.
• We only accept data for respondents who have completed the entire survey, drop outs are not included.
• We did include mobiles where that was the only number available at the address.
• We also surveyed DNCR registered numbers and when I have time I would like to publish an analysis of the results and profiles for landlines v mobiles and DNCR v not.
• We surveyed in all 88 seats State-wide and final sample in each seat was targeted weighted to the same proportion, so boost sample seats contribute the same proportionately as non boost seats to the overall State-wide results.
• It's ironic that people still complain about low sample sizes where I have surveyed 300+ in 24 seats on top of a State-wide representative poll – this is exponentially more useful and reliable than relying on low sample, grouped seat swings in other published polls. We funded this poll ourselves and yes, it gives us publicity but the information is out there for the public interest too so I believe that's a fair trade. If people would like to make financial contribution, I would be happy to survey larger samples on a seat by seat basis. I also believe there are other Labor seats in play further up the pendulum, such as Seymour, Carrum, Bendigo West, Bellarine, Macedon and Geelong, but without financial support, there are limits to what I can do.
• Let's also be very clear that this poll, just like my poll the weekend before the Federal election, is not a prediction. It is a poll of voting intention at the time – people are asked how they would vote if the election were held 'today' – and I will no more claim "I was right" if Saturday's results are the same as this poll than I will accept out of hand criticism of this poll or the Federal poll if it is different to Saturday's result. In the Federal election, the numbers changed in the last week and I would expect the same to happen here.
Author William BowePosted on Tuesday, November 23, 2010 Wednesday, November 24, 2010 Categories Victorian Election 2010116 Comments on JWS Research: Victorian Labor to lose seven to 10 seats

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


The Oviedo-Winter Springs Regional Chamber of Commerce will kick the month of August off with an informative speech from Thomas L. Baptiste about modeling and simulation in Central Florida. We are excited to hear what innovative things are happening in Research Park, right in our own backyard. Join us, our sponsor Florida Hospital, and Carrabba's Italian Grill for an educational event on Thursday, Aug. 3. Community innovators and influential engineers will be in attendance, and there is sure to be a great amount of networking in action.


From her formative years in small-town Arkansas to a later career of dates, drinks, and questionable day jobs, Colonna attempts to reconcile her responsible side with her fun-loving side. Sometimes this pans out, and sometimes she finds herself in Mexico handing out her phone number to anyone who calls her pretty. She moves to Los Angeles to pursue acting, but for years is forced to hone her bartending skills; she wants a serious boyfriend, but won't give up nights at the bar with her friends. She tries to behave like an adult, but can't seem to stop acting like a frat boy. In the end, she discovers that there doesn't have to be just one or the other. And if there's one thing Colonna has learned from her many missteps, it's that hindsight is always 100 proof.
Thank you Sarah for your humor and for sharing parts of your life with us. I found comfort in knowing that someone I respect and also in their 30's sharing similar experiences that I myself have lived. I really enjoyed your story and hope your on the new show on Netflixs with Chelsea.
Great read! I didn't want to finish it!
No no no no!!!!!!!! Bad. Really bad. I bought this book because I had already enjoyed all of the Chelsea Handler books and thought this might be similar, I assumed from briefly reading the cover that Chelsea had written some too. I was disappointed to find that the foreword was the only part by Chelsea, and the rest of the book is literally a laundry list of failed relationships. Nothing about them was funny. It was like listening to an annoying friend rattle on about what went wrong. Ugh. Hated it. I'm sure Sarah is a nice person and I think she is actually really funny on Chelsea Lately, but she should really steer clear of writing anything else in the future.
Sarah is my favorite writer on the show and I can definitely hear her voice while reading this book. These stories are great but her comedic voice makes them so much better! I would definitely recommend this book, it had me laughing every chapter!
I didn't find this book funny or enjoyable at all. I love Chelsea Handler but Sarah was disappointing.
I really enjoyed reading this book. It's fun and real. You should check it out!
Very funny book, and shows just how NW Arkansas is a little different than California, but many of us here have made it there. Keep writing and keep on Standin'' Up!
A good, fun , quick read. Easy to relate with, and some good laughs.


Carbon capture and storage in the CDM: Finding its place among climate mitigation options?
Note:  M. Doelle, Professor of Law, Schulich School of Law, Dalhousie University <mdoelle@dal.ca>; E. Lukaweski, JD candidate, Schulich School of Law, Dalhousie University <emily.lukaweski@gmail.com>. This research project would not have been possible without funding support from Carbon Management Canada.
Abstract: The climate negotiations in Durban, South Africa, concluded seven years of international negotiations on the role of carbon capture and storage in the Clean Development Mechanism. This article considers the resulting Durban CCS rules in light of the state of CCS technologies, their place among the range of climate mitigation options, and the resulting challenges, opportunities, and uncertainties surrounding the role of CCS. Eight principles that should guide the use of CCS in the CDM are proposed, and the Durban rules are assessed against them.


text:
FBMA Trophy é uma competição internacional de patinação artística no gelo de níveis sênior, júnior e  noviço, sediada na cidade de Abu Dhabi, Emirados Árabes Unidos. As pontuações técnicas recebidas neste evento contam para a qualificação para os Campeonatos da ISU.

Edições

Lista de medalhistas

Sênior

Individual masculino

Individual feminino

Júnior

Individual masculino júnior

Individual feminino júnior

Noviço avançado

Individual masculino noviço avançado

Individual feminino noviço avançado

Ligações externas

Competições de patinação artística no gelo
Eventos esportivos sediados nos Emirados Árabes Unidos

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaWikipedia


Michael Jordan has always been extremely confident. It's part of what made him such a great player, the lack of fear.
It's what made him think he could take on professional baseball and succeed. But it's also made him subject to plenty of criticism in his handling of day-to-day business or the way he has talked about high school coach Pop Herring, who kept Jordan on the junior varsity team as a 5-foot-10 15-year-old years ago.
In 2012, Sports Illustrated took a deep look at the odd relationship and how Jordan continued to feed on that decision throughout his basketball career as he let the issue fester, including during his Hall of Fame speech.
That's why it's hard to read Jordan. So often, we get the pristine Nike commercial version of Jordan. The reality is a little different. On Tuesday, he took over the Hornets' Twitter account and fans got to see a little bit of the Jordan that they don't always see.
So what is Jordan really like?
Wouldn't we all like to know. The good part is that he seems to be doing better in his ownership role now than earlier in his career, when he showed more outward frustration when the team wasn't successful.
As for that Hall of Fame speech, the most interesting part to me was about Leroy Smith, who made the varsity team when Jordan didn't. Smith was at the inauguration ceremony and has business ties to Jordan to this day.
"And then there's Leroy Smith. Now you guys think that's a myth. Leroy Smith was a guy when I got cut he made the team – on the Varsity team – and he's here tonight. He's still the same 6'7″ guy – he's not any bigger – probably his game is about the same.
If anything, Tuesday's buzz proved how much pull Jordan still has. Lots of people take selfies. Most people don't get 15,000 retweets when they do it.
Not bad for a guy who hasn't played in years.


text:
Kislak
JASON A. PUCCI, Esq.
/Team/JASON A. PUCCI, Esq.
jpucci@kislakrealty.com
Mr. Pucci joined Kislak in 2006 and is responsible for the oversight and management of the firm's operations, business activities and growth initiatives including achievement of its financial and operational objectives. Since joining Kislak, the firm has closed more than 1,700 transactions valued at $7 billion with Mr. Pucci personally closing more than 70 transactions valued at over $700 million. Prior to joining Kislak, Mr. Pucci was a vice president with a commercial real estate consulting firm.
Mr. Pucci sits on the board of directors of J.I. Kislak, Inc. and the advisory board of B6 Real Estate Advisors. He is also a member of the New Jersey and New York Bars and is a licensed real estate salesperson in New Jersey and broker in New York.
Mr. Pucci holds a Bachelor of Arts degree in political science from Seton Hall University and a Juris Doctorate from Seton Hall University School of Law.
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In a small and simple RV life, we pride ourselves on being resilient. Because we frequently change locations, our life can have an extra level of disorder and stress as compared to the sedentary lifestyle. When we frequently hitch up our home and move from here to there over a variety of surfaces, we can sometimes dread that first opening of the door when we get to where we are going. Show of hands, how many people out there have found stuff on the floor, that wasn't supposed to be there? Yes, Karen and I have had plenty of that also. Fortunately, this is an area of stress that can be managed. But it will take some time and thought.
First let's start with a few generalities. The heavier a thing is, the lower it should be stored on moving day. A corollary to that is the more expensive an item is the lower it should go, preferably protected. Both of those seem like a no brainers but, alas, learned through experience. Nothing stops the heart as much as finding out that expensive new printer had launched itself out of that top cupboard and thrown itself across the RV, bouncing off the dinette cushions and coming to rest on the edge about to fall to the floor. Heavy and expensive all in one little package. And it fit so well up there.
HaRVey came with a few cupboards which were mostly open spaces. We spent a few months finding a selection of boxes, drawers and containers for storing everyday items. For instance, all the spices in one box and all the power cords in another. Dividing these open spaces up into manageable categories not only reduces clutter but gives everything a home.
Next, let's talk a little about the physics of moving bodies, or more commonly, things sliding around on the floor. Newton's First Law of Motion states a body at rest tends to stay at rest, a body in motion wants to continue on the same path. So this means things always want to go the opposite direction that you're driving. The biggest mitigating factor here is friction. Most of the time things will only slide if there is enough force to overcome friction.
Here's a safe bet: somewhere along your route there will be enough force to overcome friction. We can plan for that. Chances are the least likely source of that force will be acceleration. Heaven help you if you've got that much horsepower. Brakes, on the other hand, are far more powerful in affecting your change in speed. And, in an emergency, nobody is going to back off the brakes so nothing spills. Therefore, pack items on the floor up against the front. They will generally stay put.
I think to finish this out I'm going to show you three specific ways we secure things that would likely spill on their own. The way that I try to develop solutions is they must be simple, easy and not intrusive. I don't want big ugly fixes or complicated machinations. We're supposed to be reducing stress here.
No. 1 is the cupboard under the sink. This one was easy because there are two opposing doors with handles. Inside this cupboard there are drawers that tended to dump the son the floor on left turns. Mostly canned goods so more things to roll around on the floor. A baby latch does the job here. Since we've been using it we have had no problems.
No. 2. No. 2 is one of those swing up cabinet doors. This one is over the sink and, curiously, is the only one of the three that has a history of ejecting items on a regular basis. (Think printer) karen said it can't be an ugly fix. Fortunately Home Depot took the hasp back. After due thought, I developed something tiny and mighty. I bought some 1/8th inch steel rod from the hardware store and cut off a few inches. Then I bent it in the middle. I drilled a hole into the side edge of the door. Next I got a tiny (the tiny part) screw eye and screwed it in next to the hole. Whenever this pin is inserted, the door can go nowhere. Problem solved!
No. 3 was interesting because it kind of evolved in a few stages. HaRVey didn't come equipped with any drawers. I know, why did we buy it that way? This was a problem pretty easily solved. We had this five drawer thing from IKEA that exactly fit next to the sink stand. Actually we had four in our previous abode. The other three got distributed to various people that needed them. But I digress. Left turns. Everything seems to happen on left turns. On a left turn this thing opens like a mad filing cabinet and discharges everything it can. Flatware goes flying! Utensils find all kinds of strange places to hide.
Our first solution was to tape the drawers shut. That worked ok as a temporary fix but it's ugly and requires more tape each time. Then there's dealing with the sticky left behind that builds up after time. The whole process was messy. Messy is the enemy of small and simple. This solution needed refinement.
All I needed was something to hold the drawers in place. One of the problems with the tape was sometimes the bottom drawer would come unstuck and drag the rest of the drawers with it as it attempted to throw off its bonds. I would need to have a secure point of anchor at the bottom to stop all that nonsense.
Funny thing. No, two funny things. They sell steel rod in three foot sections and screw eyes in packs of three. I didn't need to invent the wheel again and I had materials. I took a tinsy winsy screw eye and attached it to the cabinet on the top edge out of the way for daily use. Then I drilled a small hole in the floor straight down from the eye. Next I took the excess rod and dropped it into the screw eye and the hole. I bent it 180 degrees to help secure it in place and give me a handy handle. Maybe I should paint it white. Anyway, this works great and it's a simple solution.
It's not possible to remove all the unexpected problems from traveling but making sure that things stay where they're supposed to is one area we can control. By demonstrating some of the solutions we have worked out for some of our issues I hope I've shown that with a little thought, practical and elegant answers can help relieve some of the chaos in an RV lifestyle.


text:
Critical Care Alert
Noninvasive ventilation (NIV) and continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) have been shown to be of benefit in the treatment of patients with acute cardiogenic pulmonary edema (CPE).
Noninvasive Ventilation in Acute Cardiogenic Pulmonary Edema
Considerations of Measuring Salt Intake
Real-Time Capacity Data Help Cut LWBS Rates, Speed Care
Medical Masks Compared to N95 Respirators for COVID-19 Prevention in Healthcare Workers
Emergency Care of the Medically Complex Pediatric Patient
By Dean Hess, PhD, RRT, Respiratory Care, Massachusetts General Hospital, Department of Anesthesiology, Harvard Medical School, Boston, is Associate Editor for Critical Care Alert.
Dr. Hess reports no financial relationship to this field of study.
Synopsis: In patients with acute cardiogenic pulmonary edema, CPAP or NIV produces a more rapid improvement in respiratory distress and arterial blood gases than standard therapy.
Source: Gray A et al. Noninvasive ventilation in acute cardiogenic pulmonary edema. N Engl J Med 2008;359:142-151.
Noninvasive ventilation (NIV) and continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) have been shown to be of benefit in the treatment of patients with acute cardiogenic pulmonary edema (CPE). The authors conducted this study to determine whether NIV or CPAP reduces mortality in this patient population. This was a multicenter, open, prospective, randomized controlled trial. Patients were assigned to standard oxygen therapy, CPAP (5-15 cm H2O), or NIV (inspiratory pressure, 8-20 cm H2O; expiratory pressure, 4-10 cm H2O). The primary endpoint was death within 7 days after the initiation of treatment.
Of 1069 patients enrolled, 367 were assigned to standard oxygen therapy, 346 were assigned to CPAP, and 356 were assigned to NIV. There was no significant difference in 7-day mortality between patients receiving oxygen therapy (9.8%) and those receiving NIV (9.5%, P = 0.87). There was no significant difference in the combined endpoint of death or intubation within 7 days between the patients who were assigned to NIV (11.1%) and those assigned to CPAP (11.7%, P = 0.81). Compared to oxygen therapy, NIV was associated with greater improvements at 1 hour after the beginning of treatment in patient-reported dyspnea (P = 0.008), heart rate (P = 0.004), pH (P < 0.001), and hypercapnia (P < 0.001). There were no treatment-related adverse events. The authors concluded that, in patients with acute CPE, NIV induces a more rapid improvement in respiratory distress and metabolic disturbance than standard oxygen therapy, but has no effect on short-term mortality.
Over the past 10 years, there has been increasing use of NIV in patients with acute respiratory failure. Many randomized controlled trials have been published and these have been combined into several meta-analyses. In fact, meta-analyses have reported benefit for NIV and CPAP for acute CPE, concluding that this therapy reduces the risk of intubation.
The first meta-analysis was by Pang et al in 1998.1 They found that CPAP (3 studies) was associated with a decrease in the need for intubation (risk difference, -26%; 95% confidence intervals [CI], -13% to -38%) and a trend for a decrease in hospital mortality (risk difference, -6.6%; 95% CI, +3% to -16%) compared with standard therapy alone. In this meta-analysis, there was insufficient evidence to comment on the effectiveness of NIV compared with either standard therapy or CPAP and standard therapy.
The second meta-analysis was published in 2005 by Masip et al.2 In the combined analysis of CPAP and NIV, there was a significantly reduced mortality by nearly 45% compared with conventional therapy (RR, 0.55; 95% CI, 0.40-0.78; P < 0.001). Although mortality was reduced for CPAP (9 studies; RR, 0.53; 95% CI, 0.35-0.81; P = 0.003), this was not the case for NIV (6 studies; RR, 0.60; 95% CI, 0.34-1.05; P = 0.07). Both CPAP and NIV showed a significant decrease in intubation compared with conventional therapy; CPAP (RR, 0.40; 95% CI, 0.27-0.58; P < 0.001), NIV (RR, 0.48; 95% CI, 0.30-0.76; P < 0.001), and together (RR, 0.43; 95% CI, 0.32-0.57; P < 0.001).
A third meta-analysis by Peter reported that CPAP was associated with a significantly lower mortality rate than standard therapy (12 studies; RR, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.38-0.90; P = 0.015).3 There was a nonsignificant difference in mortality for the comparison between NIV and standard therapy (7 studies; RR, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.37-1.10; P = 0.11). The need for intubation was reduced with CPAP (RR, 0.44; 95% CI, 0.29-0.66; P = 0.0003) and with NIV (RR, 0.50; 95% CI, 0.27-0.90; P = 0.02), compared with standard therapy.
Finally, a meta-analysis by Winck et al showed a 22% absolute risk reduction (ARR) in intubation (95% CI, -34% to -10%; P < 0.001) and 13% in mortality (95% CI, -22% to -5%; P = 0.003) for CPAP compared to standard therapy (10 studies).4 For 6 studies of NIV compared to standard medical treatment, there was an 18% ARR in intubation (95% CI, -32% to -4%; P = 0.01) and 7% in mortality (95% CI, -14% to 0%; P = 0.06).
Meta-analyses have also compared CPAP with NIV. Masip et al reported no differences in intubation or mortality rates in the analysis of studies comparing the 2 techniques.2 Comparing NIV to CPAP, Peter et al found no difference in mortality risk (P = 0.38) or intubation rate (P = 0.86).3 Winck et al found a nonsignificant 3% ARR in intubation (95% CI -4% to 9%) and 2% in mortality (95% CI, -6% to 10%) with NIV compared to CPAP.4 Ho et al conducted a meta-analysis specifically comparing NIV and CPAP.5 From 7 studies, intubation (RR, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.33-1.94; P = 0.62) and hospital mortality (RR, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.32-1.78; P = 0.52) were similar between patients treated with CPAP and those treated with NIV.
Following the study by Mehta et al,6 there was concern about the safety of NIV, specifically for new myocardial infarction, in patients with acute cardiogenic pulmonary edema. However, this has not emerged as a significant concern in subsequent studies or meta-analyses.
How should this new study by Gray et al be viewed in the context of these meta-analyses? First, the intubation rate was extremely low in the Gray study: 0.8% in the standard therapy group, 0.3% in the CPAP group, and 1.1% in the NIV group. It's hard to imagine how any therapy can improve on the need for intubation when the overall intubation rate of the enrolled patients is so low. This suggests that the patients in this study were less acutely ill than those in previous studies included in the meta-analyses. The absence of a mortality benefit in this study is consistent with the meta-analyses described above, most of which failed to report a mortality benefit for NIV. This may be related to the relatively low mortality in this patient population. In the Masip meta-analysis,2 for example, the overall mortality was 15%. A quick power analysis reveals that a sample size of more than 1500 patients (about 700 in each group) is required to detect a reduction in mortality from 15% to 10% with a power of 0.8. So it should be no surprise that a meta-analysis, let alone a single study, is unlikely to show a mortality benefit in this patient population.
Given the results of prior studies, many of us have adopted the use of NIV or CPAP as first-line therapy in patients presenting with acute CPE. This is supported not only by the results of randomized controlled trials, but also by a sound underlying physiology. Increasing the intrathoracic pressure with NIV or CPAP reduces preload and afterload, which supports the failing heart while definitive therapies are administered. This should translate into improvements in heart rate, respiratory rate, dyspnea, and arterial blood gases. In fact, these benefits were reported in the study by Gray et al.
The study by Gray et al should not change the recommendation for CPAP of NIV as a first-line therapy in patients presenting with acute CPE. Similar outcomes are likely with CPAP or NIV; this is probably more of an academic than a practical point, given that the same equipment is used for either therapy in modern practice. CPAP or NIV produces a more rapid improvement in respiratory distress than standard therapy alone. CPAP and NIV reduce the need for intubation in patients sick enough to be at risk for intubation, which is supported by several meta-analyses.
Pang D, et al. The effect of positive pressure airway support on mortality and the need for intubation in cardiogenic pulmonary edema: A systematic review. Chest 1998;114:1185-1192.
Masip J, et al. Noninvasive ventilation in acute cardiogenic pulmonary edema: Systematic review and meta-analysis. JAMA 2005;294:3124-3130.
Peter JV, et al. Effect of non-invasive positive pressure ventilation (NIPPV) on mortality in patients with acute cardiogenic pulmonary oedema: A meta-analysis. Lancet 2006;367:1155-1163.
Winck JC, et al. Efficacy and safety of non-invasive ventilation in the treatment of acute cardiogenic pulmonary edema—a systematic review and meta-analysis. Crit Care 2006;10:R69.
Ho KM, Wong K. A comparison of continuous and bi-level positive airway pressure non-invasive ventilation in patients with acute cardiogenic pulmonary oedema: A meta-analysis. Crit Care 2006;10:R49.
Mehta S, et al. Randomized, prospective trial of bilevel versus continuous positive airway pressure in acute pulmonary edema. Crit Care Med 1997;25:620-628.
Critical Care Alert: Online - $349
Issue Date: November 1, 2008
A Short Written Message: Improved Satisfaction After Withdrawal of Life Support
Special Feature: Critical Care Management of the Patient with Subarachnoid Hemorrhage
Pharmacology Watch: Safety of Inhaled Anticholinergics for COPD Scrutinized
Clinical Briefs in Primary Care supplement


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A team of police officers and a civilian helped arrest an Oxnard man accused of robbing a Port Hueneme McDonald's, authorities said.
Nicholas Dergan, 27, had been at the fast-food restaurant at 401 W. Channel Islands Blvd. shortly before 10 a.m. Monday when he allegedly ran behind the counter and robbed a cashier, according to the Port Hueneme Police Department.
Dergan apparently fled McDonald's on foot and a concerned person who called 911 gave chase by car, police said. The citizen continued to provide updates to dispatchers and flagged down two Oxnard police detectives.
In related news:
Families mourn young adults killed in Oxnard car crash
Man bilked victims out of $18 million; former Oxnard resident to get $299 back
Handgun, drugs confiscated during arrest in Port Hueneme
A third Oxnard detective in the area on an unrelated case joined the chase, police said. The trio of detectives was able to nab the suspect when he ran into a restaurant at a nearby shopping center, authorities said.
Port Hueneme officers quickly arrived and took the suspect into custody, authorities said. No one was injured in the incident, police said.
Dergan was arrested on multiple misdemeanor and felony offenses from Monday and a previous warrant out of Oxnard, according to jail records. He is facing felony charges suspicion of first-degree robbery and driving a stolen vehicle as well as misdemeanor evading an officer, among other charges.
Dergan was held on $150,000 bail, jail records show.


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text:
A convicted Malaysian drug trafficker was hanged in Singapore on 25 January 2019, officials said, after the city-state rejected last minute efforts to save him.
The Malaysian government — which decided earlier this month to abolish the death penalty — had asked neighboring Singapore to spare the 31-year-old man from the gallows on humanitarian grounds.
But Malaysia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement on 25 January that Prabu N Pathmanathan was executed in Singapore's Changi Prison earlier in the day, in the presence of family members and a representative from the Malaysian embassy.
Pathmanathan was sentenced to death in 2014 for trafficking 227.82 grams (7.97 ounces) of heroin into Singapore, media reports said.
(Source: Agence France-Presse, January 27, 2019)
NIGERIA: EIGHT PEOPLE SENTENCED TO DEATH BY HANGING ATTACK JOURNALISTS IN ADAMAWA COURT


text:
Sport Business and Sport Management (111)
Social Studies in Sport and Physical Activity (170)
"diversity" x
Psychology and Behavior in Sport/Exercise x
Diversity Characteristics and Experiences of Discrimination in Certified Mental Performance Consultants
Zachary McCarver, Shelby Anderson, Justine Vosloo and Sebastian Harenberg
Association (NCAA), over 45% of student-athletes identified as a race/ethnicity other than White ( NCAA, 2018 ). However, the importance of diversity has traditionally been ignored in sport and exercise psychology (SEP), both in research and in practice. Only 10.5% of abstracts submitted to the AASP annual
In The Sport Psychologist Volume 33 (2019): Issue 3 (Sep 2019)
Managing Diversity to Provide Culturally Safe Sport Programming: A Case Study of the Canadian Red Cross's Swim Program
Kyle A. Rich and Audrey R. Giles
This article examines the piloting of a cultural safety training module in the Canadian Red Cross's (CRC's) Water Safety Instructor Development Program. Thematic analysis of interviews with program participants and facilitators revealed two main themes: Inclusion is important and valued by instructors, and accommodation for cultural and ethnic diversity is difficult to achieve in aquatics settings. Doherty and Chelladurai's (1999) framework was used to understand the strengths and weaknesses of the pilot module. In conclusion, the authors propose that cultural safety training for the instructors alone will not lead to the provision of culturally safe sport; rather, there needs to be a change in the overall organizational culture in which the CRC's programs are offered if they are to succeed. These findings make three contributions to the literature. First, the authors bridge the existing bodies of literature on critical Whiteness theory and sport management literature that addresses the management of diversity. Second, the authors explore the novel application of cultural safety training for instructors of a sport program. Finally, the authors offer recommendations to enable the development of an organizational culture that is facilitative and supportive with respect to inclusion (i.e., is welcoming) and accommodation (i.e., is flexible and adaptable) of cultural and ethnic diversity in aquatics programming.
In Journal of Sport Management Volume 29 (2015): Issue 3 (Jan 2015)
A Holistic Perspective on Women's Career Pathways in Athletics Administration
Allyson C. Hartzell and Marlene A. Dixon
Diversity in organizations has distinct positive implications. Organizations with more female representation are more successful than those headed solely by men ( Adler, 2001 ; Catalyst, 2013 ; Desvaux, Devillard-Hoellinger, & Baumgarten, 2007 ; Wittenberg-Cox, 2010 ; Wittenberg-Cox, 2014 ). A
In Journal of Sport Management Volume 33 (2019): Issue 2 (Mar 2019)
Diversity Training in Intercollegiate Athletics
George B. Cunningham
The purpose of this study was to examine the prevalence, antecedents, and outcomes of diversity training in intercollegiate athletics. Data were collected from senior level administrators and aggregated to the department level for NCAA Division I (n = 239), Division II (n = 205), and Division III (n = 231) athletic departments. Only 53% of the athletic departments offered training. Logistic regression indicated that gender diversity, sexual orientation diversity, divisional affiliation, and the presence of a proactive diversity culture were all predictive of whether the department offered training. Additional analysis indicated that sensitivity to individual needs and understanding different cultures were the topics most covered in the training. Finally, the motivation for training (either compliance- or effectiveness-based) and the degree to which the training was systematically integrated were predictive of transfer of training, with the latter variable holding the strongest association. Implications, limitations, and future directions are discussed.
Managing Cultural Diversity in Sport Organizations: A Theoretical Perspective
Alison J. Doherty and Packianathan Chelladurai
The article focuses on the management and impact of cultural diversity in sport organizations. It is proposed that the potentially constructive or destructive impact of cultural diversity is a function of the management of that diversity, which is ultimately a reflection of organizational culture, or "how things are done around here." Organizational culture is described along a continuum of valuing similarity and diversity in the organization. It is argued that the benefits of cultural diversity (e.g., creativity, challenge, constructive conflict) will be realized when an organizational culture of diversity underlies the management of that diversity. These benefits are heightened when the situation dictates a high degree of task interdependence and complexity. Implications for increasing cultural diversity and developing an organizational culture that values that diversity, as a social responsibility and a contributing force to organizational performance, are discussed.
Why We Should Care About Diversity in Kinesiology
Dana D. Brooks, Louis Harrison Jr., Michael Norris and Dawn Norwood
The primary purpose of this article is to engage in a dialogue regarding why faculty, students, and administrators should care about diversity and inclusion in kinesiology. Recent American population growth trends data clearly reveals an increase in ethnic minority populations, particularly Hispanics. American public schools and colleges are experiencing greater ethnic diversity, leading to increased diversity within our classrooms. A review of the literature quickly reveals a lack of clarity in defining the terms diversity and inclusion. Throughout the article we define these terms and at the same time identify barriers (on and off campus) to promoting and ensuring a diverse learning environment. Strong arguments are presented supporting the value of diversity within the academy, especially in kinesiology. The value of diversity in kinesiology is refected in scholarly publications, conference programming, awards recognition activities, and in the recruitment and retention of a diverse faculty and student population.
In Kinesiology Review Volume 2 (2013): Issue 3 (Jan 2013)
Creating a Climate of Organizational Diversity: Models of Best Practice
NiCole R. Keith and Jared A. Russell
This article describes the characteristics of diversity within academia and professional organizations in general and specifically within Kinesiology departments and Kinesiology-related organizations. While other types of diversity exist, this article refers to diversity in terms of race/ethnicity, gender, age, physical capability, socioeconomic background, and/or sexual orientation. Two Kinesiology departments, within the context of their universities, in two different regions of the United States are presented as models of best practice to improve institutional diversity. Also presented are one detailed example and several general examples of methods by which Kinesiology-related professional organizations have developed intentional strategies to improve diversity in membership and leadership. Presented models could, at least in part, be used by administrators and leaders to improve diversity within academic institutions and professional organizations.
Understanding the Diversity-Related Change Process: A Field Study
The purpose of this study was to examine the diversity-related change process a university athletic department was undertaking. A comprehensive model was developed by drawing from full integration theory and institutional theory. Following an organizational diagnosis perspective, data were collected through semistructured interviews, internal documents from the athletic department and university culture centers, associated websites, and press releases. Results indicate that political, functional, and social pressures for change influenced the implementation of various diversity initiatives. Despite these efforts, two primary groups of factors served to impede the progress: organizational factors, in the form of top management support and systemic integration, and perceptual processes, in the form of social processes and utility. Results suggest that for diversity-related change to be successful, it is important to consider how diversity impacts the entire sport organization, internal and external stakeholders' perceptions, and the meaningful influence of organizational factors.
Undergraduate Preparedness and Partnerships to Enhance Diversity in Kinesiology
Rosalind Chonise Gregory-Bass, Richard H. Williams, Bridget A. Peters and Asherah N. Blount
Diversity and inclusion in Kinesiology is needed to ensure the future professionals of tomorrow engage in recognizing the shared fabric of science and inquiry. Initiatives targeting inclusion and diversity have shown promise in bridging the existing gap. Vital to this process is the role of faculty, administrators and students in providing academic support and paracurricular exposure to the field of Kinesiology. Historical perspectives and knowledge of best practices shape the conversation regarding innovative 21st century options deemed necessary for meeting this challenge. Our review describes programs that strengthen the preparedness of undergraduate students. In addition, we outline existing strategies leading to effective partnerships between undergraduate and graduate institutions. Diversity and inclusion are integral to the achievement of excellence and enhance each institution's ability to accomplish its academic mission and to serve its constituents.
Diversity and Changeability of Infant Movements in a Novel Environment
Moe Kato, Hama Watanabe and Gentaro Taga
To investigate the developmental emergence of the ability to change their behavior depending on environmental conditions, we studied spontaneous limb movements and subsequent changes in amount and pattern of movement while playing with a mobile toy in infants 90-129 days old. We calculated two independent indices to represent amount and pattern of movements. While younger infants only increased the amount of movement, older infants first changed their movement pattern toward the arm-dominant pattern and then increased the amount of movement. Although the diversity of spontaneous movements did not differ with age, only the older infants showed the two-stage process. These results suggest that there is a drastic transition in the changeability of spontaneous movements toward movements suitable for the specific environmental condition.
In Journal of Motor Learning and Development Volume 1 (2013): Issue 4 (Jan 2013)


Horizon Zero Dawn was one of the most hotly anticipated game releases of the last decade. We weren't sure what to expect.
I mean, besides mechanical dinosaurs and a female protagonist, which is all you need. (PS, here are some Jurassic Park toys).
When the game was released in February of this year, it did not disappoint. Naturally, there was a whole host of Horizon Zero Dawn merchandise that cropped up, and so we're gonna share some of our faves.
They're badass chicks that can do everything dudes can do and more and they're both freakin' awesome. It's always great to have a female protagonist, /especially/ writing this as a girl gamer. We had Lara Croft, the girl from Perfect Dark (by Rare, aka the same people as Goldeneye on the N64), and Jill Valentine, but they were still few and far between. As much as I enjoyed the chance to be the dude of all dudes Duke Nukem, I'd have liked to have seen more girls. ENTER: the last decade and a bunch of awesome ones, including Aloy, who you relate to so much the game drowns you in feels.
I want more old school gamer pops, just to make my old bum feel better. But, this week they released some Buffy the Vampire Slayer ones (hay, Buffy must-haves for all Willow fans), Fraggle Rock ones, and a Kurt Cobain, so there's gotta be some hope we'll see some classic game characters soon. There'll never be any complaints when there's at least one character from a franchise, though. Aloy isn't the only one from Horizon Zero Dawn, but if she was, I wouldn't feel like I'd been fleeced. It's rare a character is badass both in and out of Pop form.
Once night falls, aim your levitating LED lightbulb at this fine piece of Horizon Zero Dawn merchandise and it will be. The artwork for this game is incredible. It's like Fallout but in a further off future than even that. It's actually so gorgeous, I'm questioning Doomsday preppers for having bunkers when they could be taking training on how to feed dinosaurs from Jeff Goldblum. More on the art later. This Horizon Zero Dawn poster is so glorious that if you haven't yet played the game, just seeing it will make you want to. Aahaaaa. I see you at Gamestop, geeklet.
Thus far. BUT it is. Like, it legitimately is the most epic piece of Horizon Zero Dawn merchandise out there. All it'll take is a little bit of googling to verify this. If you love the game or know somebody who loves the game, this is the thing to get them. While this one comes without the game (if they love it, they've got it anyway), it has a premium Thunderjaw statue, a cool, scrolling map, lithographs, and Aloy's earpiece thingy (which would be enough to get me to put this on my wishlist). I can't stress enough how cool a piece of gear this all is. It's almost like they made the game so cool on purpose.
5. Art You Sure You're Ready For Even More Beautiful Things?
Rewind two geeky products ago when I said I'd talk more about the art of Horizon Zero Dawn later. Now is the time, now is later, and this piece of Horizon Zero merchandise is exactly what I was talking about. Video games are an art, so when they release a book detailing all of it, it's almost like going to the Met or the Tate and walking away with some of the classics. Except cooler. Because video games. (Anyone remember when being geeky was supposed to be a bad thing? Look who's having all the fun now. US). And, if you like art, you'll surely like this Batman wall art, video game wall art, or these Superhero wall art prints.
6. Who Said You Can't Be Adorable AND Badass, Huh?
As Aloy proved already in the Funko pop that's cast in her image, you most definitely can, and she's the one to go to if you want to hit both boxes at the same time. Kill two Stormbirds with one stone, if you will. This Horizon Zero Dawn plush takes how cute the pop vinyl was, and multiplies it by a thousand. (Or, at the very least, a hundred). She even has a plush version of her Focus earpiece thingy and the outfit stitched for her by Teb. Even outcasts deserve a little gift sometimes.
Every merchandise article has to have at least one mug included. It all boils down to (ha) which design is the best. I have a Buffy the Vampire Slayer mug that's just the logo though and I've had it, at this point, for almost two decades. And now I feel old. Older than I actually am, probably, but hey, at least I remember when Buffy came on TV??? Yeah, no, that didn't help, but whatever. This Horizon Zero Dawn mug is pretty neat. (As are these Batman coffee mugs, Ghostbusters mugs, Wonder Woman mugs, and Walking Dead coffee mugs).
8. Which Horizon Zero Dawn Funko Mini Will You Get?
Mystery Minis make me both excited and nervous. It's great if you like a franchise and like everything about it, because then you're never let down if you get, like, Kylo Ren instead of Rey. (I totally would own all of the Star Wars pops, though. I'm not even gonna pretend otherwise). It is quite exciting. Who will you get? And will you keep getting them until you get the one you want or will you stay satisfied with whomever it is you got? Will you trade it? Do people still trade these days? They did when I had my Darth Maul cereal figurine.
Sometimes, what can pull a video game completely together, is the soundtrack. For me, the soundtracks for BioShock Infinite and the first few Silent Hill games introduced me into a new world that not only matched up to the scoring I'd seen in movies and on TV but could surpass it. It's nice to see companies still releasing soundtracks in the age of streaming, and even nicer to know I'm not the only one that wants them. Hands down, the special edition Twin Peaks soundtrack is one of my favorite records. (And this Twin Peaks merchandise is full of my favorite things).
That said, I'm not that sure she'd use it to store her laptop computer, tablet, or mobile phone. None of those things exist anymore. Stephen King and Elon Musk's fears turned to reality and the iPhone grew from a handheld way of keeping in touch with friends and family, to gigantic, living machines partly responsible for the fate of the world. There's no way Aloy or any of us can fit one of those in a bag.
Since when has a cult ever been a good thing? They're more rebellious than an outcast, but not nearly as benevolent because they don't have to be. They pride themselves on answering to their leader and their leader alone, and if their leader is good enough to make them believe they're making their own decisions, then Eclipse ensues. Nice work, HADES. No, really. I admire that in psychotic robots.
If you did, it'd be dangerous and burst open like Mentos in Nuka-Cola. It's that awesome. I'm going to put it down to Dustin in Stranger Things. He's the reason that caps came back into fashion and with a vengeance, and, thankfully, took out the resurgence of fanny packs on the way. My response to that? Also, these Stranger Things pops are preeeetty cool.
This new Aloy statue/figure, like a lot of the others we've featured before, will look amazing in your office, bedroom, living room, or even your red room if you have one of those in an age of digital photography. You can put her anywhere and she'll stand out as a beautiful piece of Horizon Zero Dawn merchandise to the point of people asking you if she's Brave, if Brave hadn't have been such a whiny teenager. As a player, you grow close to Aloy. Seems only right you keep her with you in the wait for part 2.
For more gifts from epic video games, try these on for size: BioShock merchandise, BioShock shirts, Portal merchandise, Life is Strange merchandise, Fallout merchandise, AND Fallout bobbleheads.


UPDATE: Sadly, Warner Brothers decided to take down all of the fun The LEGO Movie games and they are no longer available to play.
If they make new versions available again with the release of The LEGO Movie 2 coming in February of 2019, I will be sure to add them here.
The LEGO Movie is so popular. There are a lot of fun things you can do based on the movie and ways to learn from it as well. See our other The LEGO Movie posts for more ideas.
Is your boy still enjoying the movie and all that surrounds it? I know a lot of boys who are still very much into it. Here are some fun The LEGO Movie games to play. I enjoyed a few of them myself! Make sure to stop by the LEGO SigFig creator first. Your boy can create his own minifig to use in the games–Awesome, right?
There are a wide variety of games including some that are silly, some that are fun, and some that are challenging, they are sure learn something from playing.
If your boy enjoys playing video games he just might enjoy checking out a few of these games based on The LEGO Movie.
LEGO SigFig Creator. Create your own minifig and save the code so you can unlock him to play in some of the LEGO games. Cool! The guy I made in my image is from this LEGO Sig Creator.
In the LEGO Game Builder you can either play games created by others or (Better Yet!) you can build your own game and share it for others to play. A whole lot of learning will occur with this activity. We really enjoy game builders in my family.
Batman's First Try is an arcade style game where LEGO Batman throws his batarang at lights and criminals.
Help Emmet unglue bricks to defeat Lord Business in Brick Bust. It is a bit like Candy Crush or Bejeweled but with bricks. You unlock special images by completing levels.
In The LEGO Movie Glue Escape Racing Game you race against Bad Cop to save your friend. Collect powerups along the way. I had a lot of trouble driving but my son did just fine- hmm. LOL.
Sinkhole has Emmet plummeting through a sinkhole blocked by bricks. Your job is to avoid obstacles and go as far as you can. Use the mouse—arrows didn't work for us. (FYI: The music is a bit ominous and Emmet yells and does not look too good when he hits a barrier.) Good hand-eye coordination game.
The LEGO Movie Submarine Game is a bit unusual, especially since you are trying to keep Emmet, Wyldstyle, and Batman from drowning in the sub. You have to put certain shaped bricks in the submarine hull to stop the water from flowing. It gets challenging quite quickly. I am including it because placing the bricks is fun and a good learning exercise but I didn't care for the idea of it much at all.
Scramble is your typical scrambled picture game. 3 levels and 3 different backgrounds to try.
In Get Dressed you have to try to get the right heads and clothes on the Minifigs as fast as you can.
If your boy likes these games you can order The LEGO Movie Video Game here.
And please stop by our new big page of LEGO Goodness!
I also wanted to tell you about this neat LEGO movie activity guide you can get–just follow this link to our post on The LEGO Movie Books and you will find it there.
Know other LEGO loving families? Send them over to the blog or share this with them on social media using the buttons below.
Follow Brain Power Boy's board Learning LEGO Style on Pinterest.
My kids are going to LOVE these games!!
Love these ideas! BTW, is there anyone who doesn't love to play with Lego?! 😉 Thank you for sharing on We Love Weekends! Looking forward to see what you'll share next!
Well, I don't personally know of anyone!