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Journal archive: Hollenbeck fights for Marist career
Mike Benischek
Editor's note: This column first published on Oct. 18, 2013, in preparation for the 2013-14 women's college basketball season. On Friday, Marist College announced Hollenbeck has withdrawn from the school.
There are no simple answers in Delaney Hollenbeck's world.
Her search for a doctor who could treat — or even diagnose — the rare ailment that causes her legs to burn and weaken upon exertion, forcing her to sit down to regain strength, has lasted over three years, spanning at least five states.
Last February she underwent surgery for popliteal artery entrapment syndrome and compartment syndrome that she said works for about half of all patients. She wasn't one of the lucky ones.
And though Hollenbeck found treatment that has allowed her to participate in most of the Marist College women's basketball team's practices this preseason, nobody knows how long that will last, or what she'll be able to do in an actual game.
The second-year player speaks with hope. Her coach speaks with apprehension.
As has been the case since the 6-foot-5 center first experienced symptoms in her junior year of high school, it's complicated.
"It's very different than just a regular injury because I have a syndrome," she said. "It will never go away."
She may always need treatments. The word "cured" has had to leave her vocabulary.
But after a freshman season that ended with 19 total minutes played and an NCAA medical redshirt, Hollenbeck's face lights up when discussing the prospect of staying on the floor this year.
"I'm doing OK. Some days are better than others," the Alpharetta, Ga., native said on Tuesday. "I have been practicing with the team as much as possible. I hope to be able to contribute this year as much as possible. But it's all depending on the day, honestly, how my legs are feeling that day."
Amazingly, she's able to speak with such hope eight months after it seemed she had exhausted the best option doctors could prescribe.
Even more amazingly, she found the most effective treatment herself, on Facebook.
Hollenbeck flew to Arizona in January, where doctors at the Mayo Clinic were able to diagnose what doctors in Georgia and New York could not. A month later, she traveled to Wisconsin to undergo surgery.
"They actually took out my fascia. It's complicated," Hollenbeck said. "For it not to work, then you have to go on to the next option. It's emotional, obviously. It's a hard situation to be a part of. You just have to have hope that it will get better."
A story on a Facebook support group for popliteal artery entrapment syndrome, about a doctor in Wyoming who had developed a treatment using Botox injections, provided the hope she sought.
She boarded another cross-country flight and received her first injections in May, before returning to Wyoming in July for follow-up injections.
"It actually allows my artery to be free," Hollenbeck said. "I still feel symptoms from the Botox. It's kind of a give or take, but it's helped me get more time on the court.
"It's not long periods of time. I'll be able to go in for a certain amount of time and then I'll have to sub out and rest a little bit to regain strength in my legs."
As the treatment is supposed to last six to eight months, she plans to make another trip in December. It's no perfect fix, and certainly not a cure. But, with the exception of full-court running drills, the center said she has been able to take part in practice.
On Tuesday, Marist coach Brian Giorgis praised the defensive instincts and talents that made Hollenbeck the second-leading shot-blocker in Georgia scholastic history, as well as her post moves.
However, he also said he noticed a step backward in recent practices.
"It was better," he said, stressing the past tense. "I think I have to do the things where, you got to cut down the number of practices that she does.
"You have two rare diseases — two extremely rare diseases that are interacting with one another. Some days she has good days. But I'm starting to learn that, the more she's out there, it's not good. I think she needs more rest in between."
The coach also mentioned the most public display of Hollenbeck's ailment a year ago. Four minutes after checking into the Nov. 28 game against Hofstra, immediately after scoring her first and only basket of the season, she crumbled to the floor and had to be helped off the court.
"She was done for the day even though the next day she could have practiced," Giorgis said. "Right now that's the frustrating part. You just don't know. And I don't want to hurt the person.
"It's frustrating to her and it's frustrating to us because you don't have an answer, and you're still searching for answers. I give her a lot of credit, she's a trooper. She just keeps gutting it out. There's times when she just breaks down and cries. It's been hard."
So, the questions remain.
Will Hollenbeck be a factor for Marist's depleted frontcourt this season? Will she consistently play the 10-15 minutes a game Giorgis hopes? Will her next set of injections have the same positive effects as her initial treatment?
Neither the center, her coach nor her myriad doctors can say. As with everything in Hollenbeck's world, there are no simple answers. But, she remains hopeful.
"It's never going to be completely gone, so that's hard," she said, "but I'm glad I still get to be a part of the team."


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Contracts & Salaries November 6, 2021
Sam Dunn
UFC 268: Boardroom Q&A with Frankie Edgar
At UFC 268, former lightweight champion Frankie Edgar will fight for the first time since turning 40. (Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)
"Winning has a way of taking care of things. As long as I win some fights, I'm always in the game," the MMA icon tells Boardroom ahead of UFC 268.
Frankie Edgar's been around.
His career spans several distinct eras of mixed martial arts — his first pro fight came in 2005 at the age of 23 with the Underground Fight League at a boxing gym in the Bronx that was less than state-of-the-art, if we're being charitable. He made his UFC debut two years later on a Las Vegas a pay-per-view headlined by a prime era Anderson Silva. He went on to become UFC lightweight champion.
On Saturday night at Madison Square Garden, "The Answer" will enter the cage at UFC 268 for his first fight as a 40-year-old, standing opposite Marlon "Chito" Vera in a much-anticipated bantamweight bout on the main card.
Ahead of the big night at the World's Most Famous Arena, Boardroom caught up with theToms River, New Jersey native to talk about preparation, legacy, and what the road ahead looks like for a one-of-a-kind bruiser whose Hall of Fame CV is already assured.
As Edgar explained to Boardroom at UFC 268 media day on Wednesday:
Camp's been great. I always prepare the right way, and this camp was no different. I'm excited to find kind of a home game and put a show on for the fans.
"I'm gonna be fighting on my deathbed."
—Frankie Edgar#UFC268
— sam Dunn (@RealFakeSamDunn) November 3, 2021
I just cut out the fat, the stuff that's really not helping you. I'm a very disciplined person, that's the biggest key. Discipline in my workouts, discipline in my diet, my recovery. It's a well-oiled machine; you've gotta take care of it.
You've always gotta go back [with] fights that maybe didn't go your way and try to see things you could do differently, but I'm not trying to look back — I'm trying to look forward. The ideal situation is getting this dub on Saturday, and then go home, you know, eat some cheeseburgers and stuff and decide what we'll do next.
I always think, I got [a UFC championship] once before at 155 pounds, and winning has a way of taking care of things. As long as I win some fights, I'm always in the game.
Finally, we couldn't let Frankie go without asking him our favorite question — if the UFC went back to the old days of no weight classes and held an "Openweight Grand Prix," what weight would you show up at, and who would you be facing in the championship match?
"I weigh normally probably 155 pounds, and it's gonna be me and [Francis] Ngannou in the finals," he said with absolutely zero hesitation.
Frankie vs. Francis. The poster practically designs itself.
And while there are rumors out there that Chito Vera could be Edgar's last opponent before he calls it a career, we'll make a point to hold out some hope that Frankie and Francis can at least get in some sparring together one day. Maybe mint the moment as an NFT afterward. Who says no?
Frankie Edgar's Vital Stats & Career Accomplishments
Hometown: Toms River, NJ
Height: 5-foot-6
Current weight class: Bantamweight (135 pounds)
Reach: 68 inches
Nickname: The Answer
Pro MMA record: 24-9-1
Division II college wrestler at Clarion University of Pennsylvania
Former UFC lightweight champion
Successfully defended UFC lightweight title two times
Currently No. 8 in UFC men's bantamweight rankings
Received 11 UFC bonus awards worth between $25,000 to $75,000 each, tied for No. 8 all-time among male fighters
Eight UFC bonus awards for Fight of the Night are tied for the most in UFC history
UFC 268 begins with early prelims at 6 p.m. ET Saturday night on ESPN+. Prelims begin at 8 p.m. on ESPNews, with the main card touching off at 10 p.m. ET exclusively on ESPN+ pay-per-view.
Click here to check out Boardroom's interview with fellow UFC 268 main card competitor Michael Chandler.
UFCMMAMadison Square GardenFrankie Edgar
Sam Dunn is the Managing Editor of Boardroom. Before joining the team, he was an editor and multimedia talent for several sports and culture verticals at Minute Media and an editor, reporter, and site manager at SB Nation. A specialist in content strategy, copywriting, and SEO, he has additionally worked as a digital consultant in the corporate services, retail, and tech industries. He cannot be expected to be impartial on any matter regarding the Florida Gators or Atlanta Braves. Follow him on Twitter @RealFakeSamDunn.

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In My Room is a 2018 German drama film directed by . It was screened in the Un Certain Regard section at the 2018 Cannes Film Festival.

Plot
Hans Löw plays Armin, a cameraman whose professional and personal lives are dysfunctional. He suddenly finds himself apparently the only survivor of some unspecified calamity that causes every other human being to disappear. After wandering for months or years and making do with what humanity has left behind, he encounters Kirsi (Elena Radonicich) and the two form a romantic relationship but Armin reproduces all the same pettiness that he had before humanity's disappearance.

Cast
 Hans Löw as Armin
 Elena Radonicich as Kirsi
 Michael Wittenborn as Father

Reception
Writing for The A.V. Club, Mike D'Angelo gave the film an A−, saying of the character study, "this droll yet poignant amalgam of the fantastic and the mundane ultimately suggests that while people can dramatically alter their behavior in response to extreme circumstances, on some fundamental level they don't really change".

See also
 Bokeh

References

External links

Page from Pandora Film

 Cineuropa

2018 films
2018 drama films
German drama films
2010s German-language films
2010s German films

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ArchivesE-cigarettesIndiaIndiaNews - AsiaVaping
admin_fa_6025 20th September 2019 18th June 2020
DELHI: One of India's leading consumer advocacy groups has slammed the government following the passing of ordinance prohibiting the manufacture and sales of e-cigarettes in India, stating that it is a black day for 11 crore (approximately 110 million) smokers in India who have been deprived of safer options.
The Association of Vapers India (AVI), an organisation that represents e-cigarette users across the country, said the ordinance will put lives at risk, adding that the haste shown by the government in enacting a ban indicates it is more concerned about protecting the cigarette industry than improving public health.
AVI said this regressive step has set back by decades initiatives taken by various stakeholders in promoting tobacco harm reduction.
Samrat Chowdhery, AVI director and harm reduction advocate, said: "The government may be patting its back for banning e-cigarettes but this is a draconian move considering the risk to the health of crores of smokers. On one hand we talk about transitioning from a developing to developed nation but on the other we are closing our doors to new technology that has been embraced globally by governments and used by millions worldwide to quit smoking."
"From the start, the government has not been considerate about public health or public welfare, backing biased scientific evidence which has been rebutted by scientists from across the world for cherry-picking and misinterpreting research to target Electronic Nicotine Delivery Systems (ENDS). What appears to matter more to the government is protecting its 28% stake in the country's cigarette monopoly ITC. So hellbent was the government on a ban that it also banned any research into ENDS so that the facts about their relative safety to smoking could be subdued."
Speaking about countermeasures, Chowdhery was adamant: "We will continue to fight for the rights of e-cigarette users and smokers looking to quit or reduce harm to themselves. Apart from exploring legal options, we will also raise the issue at national and international forums. The government has snatched the right of India's 11 crore people to harm reduction. This cannot be allowed to happen."
"Our aim is to help solve the country's tobacco problem that claims 13.5 lakh lives and causes loss of Rs150,000 crore annually. This requires innovative thinking as the current measures are not wholly effective. What we had not accounted for, however, was that we would have to fight our own government to save the lives of our people."
Bringing an ordinance shows the high-handedness of the government, said Dr Farrukh Khan, senior Delhi HC lawyer, partner at Diwan Advocates and legal head in pro-THR litigation.
"The ordinance is ultra vires to the constitutional framework. This has deprived people of their freedom of choice. The government should have thought about it progressively and in the larger pursuit of public policy on health. Still, we would demand that the government overturn its decision and think with a larger perspective of regulating e-cigarettes," Dr Farrukh added.
The government acted blindly, that it was too based on biased research and was failed to conduct studies in India, said Kanav Rishi Kumar, a Delhi-based entrepreneur who quit smoking through vaping.
He added: "It is disappointing to see that the government, elected by such a large majority, has now acted against them. The ordinance brought by the government favours the tobacco lobby and disregards people's freedom to choose an alternative. I think now all the vapers should come forward for their rights and raise a voice against the ordinance."
The ordinance is based on misconceptions and lacks understanding of the concept of harm reduction, said Dr Bharat Gopal, senior pulmonologist & Director National Chest Centre, New Delhi.
He further stated that Tobacco Harm Reduction (THR) is a public health strategy to lower the health risks associated with using nicotine – a strategy used in many countries to help smokers quit with use of non-combustible products. The government has turned a blind eye to the science behind e-cigarettes and denied smokers a less harmful product and a chance to attempt quitting the habit.
Dr Gopal termed the ordinance a diktat that favours a known killer (cigarettes) and abolishes safer forms of nicotine consumption, adding that he recommends high fines on juvenile vaping, coupling it with high fines on those selling ENDS products to minors.
Notably, as many as 3,300 e-cigarette users have already opposed the ordinance as they wrote to the prime minister appealing against an ENDS ban.


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aiko December 26, 2022 October 20, 2021
Regarding wages, the report indicated that average hourly earnings of workers have been up 4.6{b65f5d6d6d519c0954b2ab3b15d02806e53b5e138b4955adef66d08dc21b3c53} from a 12 months earlier. Given that inflation is operating barely above that level, which means actual (inflation-adjusted) wages have declined—which is not what one would expect within the midst of a labor shortage. Interestingly, wages in the leisure and hospitality sector have been up 10.8{b65f5d6d6d519c0954b2ab3b15d02806e53b5e138b4955adef66d08dc21b3c53} from a yr earlier, indicating that companies in this trade are boosting compensation to find a way to lure reluctant staff. However, wages in the massive retail sector were up only three.9{b65f5d6d6d519c0954b2ab3b15d02806e53b5e138b4955adef66d08dc21b3c53} from a 12 months earlier.
Shortages of natural fuel, coal from Asia to Europe are driving further demand for oil merchandise in power generation. US Securities and Exchange Commission is about to permit the first American bitcoin futures ETF to begin buying and selling this week. Expectations of an interest rate cut later this week, regardless of high inflation, are pressuring the lira. State personal consumption expenditures decreased 2.6 percent in 2020 after rising three.7 p.c in 2019. The {b65f5d6d6d519c0954b2ab3b15d02806e53b5e138b4955adef66d08dc21b3c53} change in PCE across all 50 states and the District of Columbia ranged from 1.2 {b65f5d6d6d519c0954b2ab3b15d02806e53b5e138b4955adef66d08dc21b3c53} in Idaho and Utah to –5.8 p.c within the District of Columbia.
Sbi Hikes Fd Interest Rates, Examine New Rates
Early on, COVID-19 cases have been concentrated in coastal inhabitants centers, particularly in the Northeast, with instances in New York, New Jersey, and Massachusetts peaking in April . By April 9 there had been more COVID-19–related deaths in New York and New Jersey than in the the rest of the United States mixed . COVID-19–related deaths then peaked in the New England and Rocky Mountain regions in the course of the third week of April, followed by the Great Lakes region in the fourth week of April, and the Mideast and the Plains regions during the first week of May. The Southeast, Southwest, and Far West regions all experienced their peaks on the finish of July and first week of August. One of these dangers may start exhibiting itself in real estate knowledge expected later today. Even as inflation uncertainty stays, Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem steers to a halfway level between pumping up the economy and letting out slightly air, as a pronounced slowdown in housing stays a danger. A report released Wednesday from members representing the G7 suggests political leaders must collaborate on insurance policies to realize their top priorities in the occasion that they need to safeguard their countries in opposition to future economic shocks.
However, the current survey finds that the impact of current economic circumstances has been pretty equal on young males and younger ladies. Among those ages 18 to 34, men and women are equally prone to report that, in current times as a outcome of economic circumstances, they've taken a job they actually didn't need simply to pay the bills. Similar shares say they have gone back to highschool (35{b65f5d6d6d519c0954b2ab3b15d02806e53b5e138b4955adef66d08dc21b3c53} of young men and 36{b65f5d6d6d519c0954b2ab3b15d02806e53b5e138b4955adef66d08dc21b3c53} of women).
The Pressures Sinking China's Economic Development
In this state of affairs, demand for fossil fuels peaks by 2025, and world CO2 emissions fall by 40{b65f5d6d6d519c0954b2ab3b15d02806e53b5e138b4955adef66d08dc21b3c53} by 2050. All sectors see a decline, with the electricity sector delivering by far the most important. The NCAER distinguished itself in finding progressive methods to map the state of the Indian economy through the pandemic. At a time when official sources of information suffered giant gaps and inadequacies, researchers at NCAER found their own ways to assess the extent of economic disruption as a outcome of Covid. As early as December 2020, that they had correctly forecast that the full-year GDP progress might be minus 7.3{b65f5d6d6d519c0954b2ab3b15d02806e53b5e138b4955adef66d08dc21b3c53} — a quantity that the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation arrived at solely by May 31 this year!
Canada's pot trade marks three years since legalization, Drake gets back into the pot recreation and B.C. Toyota Motor Corp. plans to invest US$3.four billion in the us through 2030 to ascertain a new company and construct its first U.S. battery plant, turning into the most recent world automaker to speed up the transition to electric automobiles through a battery push. OPEC and its allies as quickly as once more failed to pump sufficient oil to satisfy their output targets, exacerbating the provision deficit because the world recovers from the coronavirus pandemic. Being an vitality fund manager in Canada hasn't been for the faint of heart for a quantity of years, and that was cemented in 2020 when the price of West Texas Intermediate crude plunged into adverse territory. Home Economics goals to help Canadians navigate their private funds within the age of social distancing and beyond.
Make Smart Monetary Decisions
The first batch celebrates icons in civil rights, politics, humanities and science. October 14, 2021 • For months, lawmakers have been negotiating two massive spending payments endlessly. The worth of petrol in Delhi rose to its highest-ever degree of ₹103.24 a litre and to ₹109.25 per litre in Mumbai. Earlier, a three-year SLTRO facility of ₹10,000 crore at the repo price was made out there to small finance banks in May 2021 till October 31, 2021. As per the scheme, cash-out of more than ten hours at any ATM in a month will appeal to a flat penalty of ₹ 10,000 per ATM. The value of petrol in Delhi rose to its highest-ever stage of ₹104.14 a litre and ₹110.12 per litre in Mumbai, the notification confirmed. The central bankers put together to start reducing asset purchases next month and eye ending the stimulus program by mid-2022.
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The hunt is on for Bermudian models in the wake of Southampton beauty Deandra Brangman's win at Top Model Worldwide.
The UK group plans to send a Top Model team to Bermuda in July for the Four Season City Fashion Festival 21-year-old Ms Brangman has been booked as the lead model for that event.
Top Model's Danielle Deakin said: "In addition, we plan to do shoots and press while in Bermuda, and hope to launch the TMWW 2012 search from Bermuda, as the home of the current title holder.
Ms Brangman, who studies in the US, will serve as the face of the July 16 festival.
Top Model plans to send some of its scouts to the Island at that time, to scope out Bermuda's talent.
In the meantime, Ms Brangman is booked to return to London in May for photo shoots with the professional model search group.
Back home, the Corporation of Hamilton is organising a model search of its own to promote this summer's show.
"We're going to do model calls in May for the fashion festival," said events and marketing coordinator Thomas Lightbourne.
Other models to take part in the show will be picked from two auditions, the dates of which are to be announced next week.
The week of festivities in Hamilton will also celebrate arts, families and food.
Ms Brangman, who started out modelling in Bermuda while a student at the Berkeley Institute, made headlines after taking top place in the March 27 Top Model show at the London Hilton.


Well, a weekend during which Greece seems to have been finally able to pass muster on its bond deal, while Mario Draghi has given the official "all clear" on the debt crisis seems to be as good a moment as any to have a look at where the country which many investors consider likely to be the next to enter the restructuring process is up to.
Speaking after last week's meeting of the ECB's governing council Mr Draghi said the recent three-year long-term refinancing operation (LTROs) had been an "unquestionable success" and had "removed tail risk from the environment" For the uninitiated "tail risk" is defined by Wikipedia as "the risk of an asset or portfolio of assets moving more than 3 standard deviations from its current price in a probability density function.Such risk is often under-estimated using normal statistical methods for calculating the probability of changes in the price of financial assets".
Now I'm not exactly sure whether a two percentage point shift in bond yields over a 12% starting point - or a movement of about 16% in two weeks - counts as tail risk in the technical sense, but it sure looks like it should do, and this is basically what just happened to Portugal.
Portuguese bond yields are rising as investors are busy putting cheap money from the European Central Bank to work elsewhere. The increase in 10-year borrowing costs by almost two percentage points in the past two weeks is stoking concern among investors that the nation will struggle to resume bond sales in 2013. Portugal has been unable to sell debt due in more than a year since it was given a 78 billion-euro ($102.8 billion) bailout in May 2011, following Greece and Ireland......Portugal's 10-year yield was at 13.83 percent at 12:07 p.m. in London, up from 7.48 percent a year ago. The extra yield investors demand to own the nation's bonds rather than Germany's widened 1.1 percentage points to 12.04 percentage points since the ECB announced its program of three-year loans to banks on Dec. 8. Italy's spread shrank 124 basis points to 3.2 percentage point, and Spain's narrowed 53 basis points to 3.26.
So why would people think that Portugal might be the next to need a second bailout? Well, what the Greek historian Thucydides would have called the efficient cause would be the fact that it has a 9.3 billion euro bond redemption due in September next year and the despite initial Troika hopes, the markets remain closed tighter than the lips of Angela Merkel were to the supposedly amorous advances of Silvio Berlusconi.
But the final (or underlying) cause which will send Portugal into a second bailout is the fact that the country has a high level of debt (both public and private) and a chronic growth problem which won't simply be turned round by a bit of good will and a few "magic wand" structural reforms. So essentially the numbers just don't add up.
So Just What Are The Numbers?
With interest rates on 10 year bonds up around 14% it certainly won't be. According to the Troika calculations Portugal had sovereign debt of 102.7% of GDP in 2011, and a budget deficit of 5.9% broadly in line with the target laid down in its bailout package. Yet, despite the fact that the Portuguese reform programme was recently described by the WSJ (following the lead of the IMF) as being on track, the deficit numbers were, in fact, only saved by a last minute scramble which involved transferring funds (5.6 billion Euros or 1.9% of GDP) from the banking-sector pension system to the government social security one, in order to achieve what the IMF consider a short term accounting benefit. There were also questions raised as to whether this was not "short term gain for long term pain" in another sense, since the government has also to assume future liabilities for bank pensions, and several experts have queried whether these liabilities were transferred on a "fair value" basis, or whether indeed some sort of disguised longer term (in the short term the bank balance sheets take a hit) subsidy to the banking system was not in fact indirectly provided.
In their second review of the programme (published in December) the IMF said the following: "Staff questions both the timing of the transfer and the appropriateness of in effect using an accounting technique to mask the true fiscal position". That is to say the Fund has a double role here - to talk the efforts of the Portuguese administration up before the world's press, and to try and keep the politicians in line in the background.
So achieving last years target was not easy (see above chart which comes from an excellent research report from Citi analyst Jürgen Michels and his team), with the day only being saved was by a one-off transfer, a technicality which means that this years deficit reduction will effectively be from a real base of 7.8% of GDP (5.9% + 1.9%) to 4.5% (or 3.3 percentage points), which is significantly larger than the 2011 reduction which was really from 9.1% in 2010 to only 7.8% (or 1.3 percentage points - ie the fiscal "effort" in 2012 will be two and a half times as big as the 2011 one).
Without the accounting "fudge" revenue would have come in significantly under target, and this highlights one of the big problems in all the deficit reduction programmes that are currently in place on Europe's periphery, namely that the economic contraction associated with austerity programmes (in uncompetitive economies) produces a severe fall in revenue, one which is not necessarily associated in linear fashion with the output fall itself. For example, a 10% fall in retail sales demand may produce a much more dramatic fall in profits, which means that tax income from profits can be almost wiped out. This is one of the problems the Greeks have been constantly up against, and was surely partly behind last years big Spanish budget target "miss", and while many stress that programme implementation issues are fewer and farther between in Portugal than in Greece they are hardly negligable looking at the country's track record, so the adminstration will be permanently struggling to meet 2102 revenue targets.
As well as revenue shortfalls, government expenditure also overshot, largely due to greater than planned capital expenditure. The reasons for the non-compliance with expectations on the capital spending side are interesting, since they mainly derive from the needs of Portugal's state-owned companies (SOEs) and transfers made to Public Private Partnerships (PPPs), which surely form an important part of the programme slippage risk.
Anyone who has recently read my recent post on the true level of Spanish debt should not be the least surprised to find that similar issues exist in Portugal (for explanations of methodology see the Spanish post). As in the Spanish case the government provided guarantees for SOEs, so it has contingent liabilities and might be forced at some point to take over the debt. According to IMF estimates, explicit guarantees to Portuguese SOEs (including those outside general government accounts) represented anywhere between 10% and 15% of GDP in mid-2011.
Then there are the PPPs. These are especially important in Portugal, and the value of the government's ultimate exposure may be something like 14% of GDP. Such partnerships have been popular politically since they have the accounting advantage for governments that, as the private sector holds the debt and the state simply services it, the outsanding quantity doesn't count as state debt for Eurostat EDP purposes. Indeed such schemes have even been marketed to government agencies on just these grounds, as I pointed out in an early post on the topic - Just What Is The Real Level Of Government Debt In Europe? (February 2010). PPPs are often used to finance infrastructure programmes, with the government paying a charge to use the infrastructure until final ownership is assumed at the end of a defined period. In the Portuguese case such "rents" amount to about 1% of GDP annually.
Then, naturally, there are the accumulated unpaid bills. According to Eurostat data Portugal had 8.8 billion Euros worth at the end of September last year, or around 5% of GDP, although note that some of this will be normal trade credit, so the Portuguese government's own estimate of 3.5% of GDP which should be counted as debt may not be that far from the mark.
Also, banks need recapitalising, and the IMF estimate that the banking system will need funding to the tune of about 4.7% of GDP in 2012 alone.
So the 2012 deficit objective is challenging, and the risks to the debt path are not negligible, but the main issue determining where Portugal goes from here is not whether or not the country will be able to go back to the markets at the end of next year, but whether or not the country's economy is able to make the growth leap assumed in the IMF debt forecasts.
According to the latest set of projections, the IMF anticipate a GDP contraction of 3% in 2012, to be followed by a return to growth at a rate of 0.7% in 2013. Crucially though, the Fund anticipates a growth rate of 2% or more on a more or less constant basis from 2014 onwards. This assumption is based on the impact of the proposed structural reforms which are more or less similar in all the programme countries - namely reform of the public adminstration to reduce the size and cost of the public sector, product market reforms to improve competitiveness (in this case especially in the telecommunications sector), and labour market reforms.
Now I have no doubt at all that most of these reforms are badly needed, I just doubt they will have the kind of "growth surge" impact that is being widely assumed. The Portuguese long term GDP trend has been heading strongly downwards in a most noteable way for a decade and a half now, and turning this around will involve a lot stronger force than seems to be being anticipated. In addition, Portugal has an ageing workforce which will surely be a growth rate negative, and the current deep economic recession is leading to substantial human capital loss, as young people leave to find work and a better life elsewhere. In fact these kinds of negative feedback loop are simply not considered in the kinds of growth model the EU and the IMF use, but are very important in determing the future path of an economy, as I try to argue in this presentation I recently gave in Riga (referring to the Latvian case).
It's not that I think the growth rates being offered are too optimistic, I think they are based on a theoretical model which is by-and-large out of date.
"Restoring competitiveness will require improvements in productivity accompanied by an internal devaluation. As productivity gains will materialize only gradually, the program will continue to focus on measures to lower input costs, increase the competitiveness of domestic production, and allow for a reduction in non-tradable prices.....In particular, significant adjustment in wages is needed in the short run, before reforms enhance productivity over time. In this regard, public sector wages cuts, extension of working hours, and the decision to redesign the extension of collective wage agreements and not to grant automatic extensions during 2012 are welcome.".
Following a pattern previously established in Latvia, Hungary and Greece, public sector wages and pensions are being reduced - principally by means of a 2-year suspension of the extra two (summer and xmas) monthly payments of both wages and pensions (the IMF estimate that this is equivalent to a 12-percent average cut), but while this reduces pressure on public finance, the mechanism via which this would produce an increase in competitiveness in the tradeables/export sector is far from clear, to me at least. Perhaps it is worth noting at this point, that Hungary has implemented most of the measures being proposed in Portugal without visible impact on the country's growth rate.
The only measure which it seems to me would start to lower wage costs in the private sector (as opposed to the improved productivity path, which the fund itself admits will be slow) would come from a measure to decentralise wage agreements in the way the new Spanish law allows, and let wages in the private sector fall steadily. But this would of course be deflationary, and hence would have its own impact on debt sustainability. In fact IMF forecasts are based on CPI inflation of around 1.5% annually between 2013 and 2016, so they themselves are hardly expecting any serious deflation, or even the relatively mild kind which the country experienced in 2009 (-0.9%).
So it looks to me pretty much like the country is facing a long period of adjustment (possibly over a decade) just like its Spanish counterpart, and it is unrealistic to think it won't need support throughout this period. Simply put, the difficulty of implementing a correction of the magnitude Portugal needs within the framework of a common currency has been greatly underappreciated by policymakers right from the outset.
Portugal's gross domestic product shrank 2.8% in the fourth quarter on an annual basis, and fell 1.3% from the third quarter, according to the latest data from the National Statistics Institute. For 2011 as a whole, the economy contracted 1.6%, as compared with a 1.4% growth in 2010. Last year, exports rose 7.4%.
Growth got worse as the year progressed, showing the country is being hit by the slowdown in other countries in Europe and elsewhere. With domestic demand falling, and government consumption being cut back the country is now largely dependent on exports for growth, but with the country's largest export market, Spain, also undergoing its own austerity program this growth is getting harder to come by.
The chart above, which only shows data up to the end of September, makes plain how exports had surged following the ending of the first European recession, offsetting the negative trend in household demand.
But the latest data show that while net trade was a positive element in fourth quarter GDP, this was largely the result of a very sharp fall in imports. Year on year exports were up 5.8%, while imports fell by a whopping 13.5%. We don't have official data from the statistics office on quarter by quarter changes in exports, but the data we do have suggests they stagnated when compared to the third, following a pattern generally seen across Europe. Despite the almost total dependence of the economy on exports now for growth, the country still runs a goods trade deficit.
And while both this and the current account deficit have improved over the last year, the rate has been painfully slow, indeed the IMF is still forecasting a CA deficit all the way through to 2016 (and presumeably beyond) with a 5% deficit in 2013 and still a 2.8% one in 2016. To put this in perspective, countries in Eastern Europe like Latvia and Hungary who have been through these corrections already now run current account surpluses, and they are still a long way from being out of the woods.
Naturally, the Eastern countries are not direct beneficiaries of the ECB liquidity LTRO programmes, but while these make it easier for banks to meet their wholesale money needs, and governments to sell T bills and other instruments to banks, there is little sign they are likely to do much to help domestic credit till the correction is well advanced, and that, as we have seen may need many years.
Now all of this is relatively important, since debt dynamics are (other things being equal) quite dependent on economic growth rates. Just how dependent can be seen from the chart below, prepared by Jürgen Michels and his team at Citi. As can be easily seen, it only needs a growth rate of one percentage point on average below the troika baseline scenario for debt to be sent uncontrollably upwards, and the more the average growth rate deviates downwards the more rapidly debt rises.
Now there are three factors which basically determine the debt trajectory - GDP growth, interest rates on the debt and inflation. The second of these can be more-or-less determined by the rescue programme, but inflation is the catch 22, since if inflation falls to very low or negative levels this helps send debt up, while if it doesn't the country can't regain export competitiveness, and there doesn't seem to be any easy way round this, which is why I can't see the reason for policymakers being so adamant Portugal doesn't need restructuring.
In fact this is the conclusion the Citi analysts have come to, since they are now arguing that Portugal will need a 50% PSI this year (you remember those, don't you, from recent Greece experience).
In earlier assessments of its debt position, we argued that Portugal would not be able to move on to a viable fiscal path without a haircut of 35% by the end of 2012 or in 2013. While we acknowledge that Portugal is in many aspects different from Greece, we now conclude that the size of the haircut will need to be higher, to the tune of 50%, most likely taking the form of a reduction in the debt held by the private sector.
If done in 2012, a 50% haircut in the nominal value of Portuguese government debt would help to cap the peak in the debt-to-GDP ratio at around 113% in 2015. Hence, in our scenario, Portugal will need around €70bn extra funding from the Troika (plus sweeteners for the PSI) in order to close the funding gap until the end of 2015.
The Citi team argue the restructuring is needed simply to keep Portugal free from the need to go back to the markets before 2015, but I would argue the case on the grounds of trying to recover debt sustainabilty. It is important to remember that Greek sovereign debt may well be lower than the Greek equivalent, but Portugal has a far higher level of private debt, and this is not sustainable and will need writing down through the banking system to some extent, and the banks will continue to need help from the sovereign in doing this. While Portugal's private sector debt is near 200% of GDP, the Greek equivalent is only something like 120%.
Naturally, since Greece is only headed for 120% debt to GDP in 2020, but I think almost no one believes this level is sustainable, and it is only out of political correctness towards Mario Monti (whose countries debt nudged just above the 120% level in 2011) that anyone even vaguely genuflects in the direction of making believe it is.
So action will need to be taken, and realism does need to come back into policymaking. Maybe it sounds good to say that Portugal's programme is on track, but it only got back on track after 1.9% of GDP was paid over from the pension fund. Implementation risks may be less in Portugal than in Greece, but that isn't saying much, and they are certainly considerably higher than "non negligible". Also, and as I keep saying time and again, the risk to this whole LTRO funded slow-debt-dialysis on the periphery is most certainly a political one - one of populations being "driven mad" by all the austerity and lack of hope (think Hungary).
Despite Prime Minister Pedro PassosCoelho's assurances that Portugal won't follow Spain in seeking to loosen its deficit bonds in 2012, only last week Antonio Seguro, leader of the Socialist Party that secured Portugal's bailout program last May, told the Troika inspection team that the country needed more time to hit the fiscal goals set under the loan.
"We affirmed our conviction that it is desirable that Portugal gets at least another year to consolidate its public accounts," he told journalists, citing the need to turn around an economy that is tipped to shrink 3 percent this year.
Obviously, these programmes do not win votes for the government implementing them, and one party can seek to gain advantage over the other in electoral arithmetic by opposing them - Spain's socialist PSOE, for example, now oppose the new labour market reform introduced in that country, only weeks after coming out of office. And even the wage reductions are only seen as temporary, a way to reduce expenditure, and not as part of an internal devaluation process, in which context it is interesting to note that Romania's President, President Traian Basescu, has just said that that country's wage adjustment programme should be reversed, with salaries in the public sector being raised back to their pre-crisis level as of June 1, even though Finance Minister Bogdan Dragoi has just said he thinks the country has probably just re-entered recession.
Naturally austerity isn't popular, and evidentally it doesn't work as intended, but then this was already known before we started on this course, so it isn't really a surprise. But what alternative do the Euro Area's imprisoned periphery have, since if they leave the currency and default on their debts they will be in a real mess, and if they stay they are in a real mess too? Obviously, the Euro Area countries could have a shotgun wedding, and pool debts, run a current account surplus and become a second Japan. But where exactly is Japan headed? No easy answers here, and even harder ones coming up further down the line.
Petrarch, "De Remediis utriusque Fortunae"
Spain's deficit has been much in the news in recent days. Both the target for this year and actual details of last year's outcome have been the source of much comment, scrutiny, and consternation, but the deficit itself will not form the primary subject matter of this post. What we will be concerned with here is debt, sovereign debt, and the current trajectory of the Spanish variant. In a recent article in the Financial Times Victor Mallet draws attention to the situation and shows how an excessive emphasis on deficits may sometimes mislead people into missing the bigger picture, since at the end of the day deficits are only interesting as they add to debt, and in the long run what matters - as we have seen in the Greek case - is whether or not the debt itself is sustainable.
Now Victor quotes me on two counts: the real size of Spain's debt, and the effectiveness of Spain's institutions.
"Spanish sovereign debt is already over 80 per cent of GDP," said Edward Hugh, a Barcelona-based economist. "I think it's getting nearer 90 per cent"......Mr Hugh also said the situation in Spain could not be compared to the confusion in the public accounts of Greece because much of the Spanish data are public and made available by the Bank of Spain, or can be deduced from official sources. But he added that the centre-right government's transparency risked curbing Spain's room for manoeuvre should the crisis deepen further.
Well, while it's the first claim that is controversial and in need of justification (and believe me Victor Mallet demanded to see the justification for the numbers before putting up the quote) let's start with the second one first as it forms an important part of the background. I think it is very important to understand that Spain is not Greece, in the important sense that the people in change do in fact normally know what is going on. They have auditors and inspectors whose job it is to know, and they do do their job. So the Bank of Spain know virtually everything there is to know about each and every one of Spains many banks and savings banks, about the state of their balance sheets, about the level of bad loans, etc etc. Naturally, knowing what they do, what they tell you is another matter.
Similarly in the case of the public administration, auditors and controllers are in place to constantly measure and follow the exectution of the annual budget at all levels, but again what they know is often one thing, and what they actually say publically is another. When Spain's bank regulators become worried about specific cases they try their best to put on a brave face and maintain confidence while looking for solutions somewhere behind the curtain. Similarly with the public administration, although in this latter case there may well be political reasons for allowing an overspend to continue, or even for encouraging it.
We know with some degree of accuracy the number of such migrants present (although not authorised to be) in Spain due to the existence of a system known as the "Padron Municipal" (or Municipal Register) which is managed via an electronic database. So we know how many migrants register, but how do we know that the migrants always register? Well this is the part which is "typically Spanish", since a far from innocent circularity has been created - all those present in Spain are entitled to free health treatment in the public health service, but in order to have a health card you need to register with the Padron Municipal. In addition, registration adds to the possibilities of being able to regularise your situation later, so the first thing virtually every migrant does is go to register. You see, that way the central adminstration has all the data to hand.
Well, you may say, that is fine, but how do we know the register doesn't overstate the number of migrants? In fact, at one point it did, since migrants were only obliged to confirm their continuing presence every two years. That was when the focus was on measuring who was coming in, but since the economic crash and the massive surge in unemployment, for a variety of reasons the emphasis has moved towards measuring who is still here. So the interval for address confirmations and things like that has changed, and most of those who don't have residence rights are now required to confirm their presence every few months, which means that Spain has some of the most accurate data on migrant flows to be found within the confines of the EU (and possibly anywhere).
Now, you might say, why be so meticulous in collecting all this information, why not follow the UK example, and require all those who lack authorisation to be in the country to leave? Well, this is Spain and not the UK (or Greece) and this is the point of the present rigmarole I am explaining, to give an idea of how things work in Spain, not to offer an analysis of the migration policy. Understanding that you can accurately measure something that officially doesn't exist is the key to understanding how the financial and public administration systems work, and unless you "get" this part, you will be lead astray by almost everything else.
The Omnipresence of "Dinero B"
Now, on the public accounts issue itself , I actually started digging into all this in the summer of 2010, and indeed posted an interim "report" at the time. So it is something of a mystery to me why all the hedge funds, journalists and bank analysts have taken so long in waking up to the existence of "Spain's regional and local debt problem", especially since all the information on the topic is freely available on the Bank of Spain website. It seems to me that people see what they want to see at any given point in time, and this is the point of the Petrarch quote which starts this post. It comes from an Edgar Allen Poe short story, the purloined letter, and to cut a long issue short, a letter goes missing which no one can find, and the reason they cannot find it is precisely because it is lying there, right before them, on the living room mantelpiece.
"Nothing" remember, "is more hateful to wisdom (astucia) than true cleverness", which means if you try to go rummaging round round Spain for Goldman-Sachs-style interest-rate-swaps you will almost certainly leave empty handed. Handiwork here is all much simpler, and more artesanal than that, and therein lies the beauty and the sophistocation of the thing.
Hence, if you are someone who is really interested in trying to answer the question about just how high the present level of Spanish sovereign debt actually is (officially it was to have been 67.8% of GDP in December, but that estimate was made before the latest set of budget deficit "revelations" and when the estimate of 2011 GDP was rather higher than it turned out to be, so it is probably nearer to 70% now, even on the official Eurostat EDP measure) you should start here, with the Financial Accounts of the Spanish Economy. The part you really need is Chapter Two the "Financial Accounts" - actually, I will add in a small but revealing personal anecdote here, since when I sent all these links off to the IMF Spanish Mission Head back in the spring of 2010 he mailed me back saying "thanks a lot" - he plainly didn't know that this sort of thing existed., although the Spanish head of Global Financial issues for the IMF - ex Bank of Spain man José Viñals - most surely did, but he simply hadn't seen fit to brief his colleague. As I say, this is how Spain works, you have to ask the right person the exactly right question, and make sure you don't get sidetracked. Otherwise you will learn nothing apart from a lot of useless and most likely thoroughly misleading information.
But before we did down any deeper, just to let us all see where we are, why don't we make a small detour to Chapter 11 of the Bank of Spain's Statistical Bulletin, on General government liabilities. Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP) debt. Now if we examine section 11.3 Liabilities outstanding and debt according to the excessive deficit procedure. Absolute values, we will find this most iluminating table.
Two important points should be drawn to the attention of the studious reader immediately, the fact that the right hand section refers to the Excess Deficit Procedure (EDP or officially recognised Eurostat) debt, and that the totals at the bottom of columns one and 15 are different. The number at the bottom of column one is approximately 877 billion Euros (or around 85% of Spanish GDP) while the number at the bottom of column 15 is 706 billion Euros, and this is the official Eurostat debt. So what makes for the difference? Well, as we will see, there are three main items - unpaid bills, public company debt, and Spanish sovereign bonds which are in the hands of the Social Security Reserve Fund. Now before going into all this further, I do want to make clear that I am not saying that this 877 billion euros is the total Spanish debt which should be counted as such. The number is simply orientative - a lot, but not all, of this is debt which will need to be consolidated - but in fact, and in addition, there are other "contingent liabilities" which will also need to be added in to get a complete reading..
But let's go one step at a time, and why not start with those famous "unpaid bills". Well, according to the Financial Accounts, at the end of the third quarter there were 72.9 billion Euros in unpaid bills (around 7% of GDP) which were more than 30 days overdue owed by the entire public adminstration (see this file here, bottom right second page - in fact there is a total of 87.5 billion Euros owing, but 14.6 billion is still within the term of normal trade credit). This breaks down as 27.7 billion Euros on the part of central government, 20.8 billion Euros from the regional governments, and 14.9 billion Euros for the local authorities. Much of this debt has been pending for months, if not years. It also makes the number of 35 billion Euros which is being bandied about in Spain for the credit lines to local authorities and regional governments seem quite reasonable and realistic. Of course, the central government itself still will need to put its own house in order.
The second main area of non-consolidated debt is the money owed by public companies, many of them loss making, and often entities which have been created without rhyme or reason at both regional and local authority level. As of the end of the third quarter of 2011 this debt amounted to 57 billion Euros (or 5% of GDP - see the memorandum item on the far right in this file), of which 32 billion Euros was attributable to central government, 15.5 billion Euros belonged to regional governments, and 9.4 billion Euros came from companies created by local authorities. There is no plan at present for dealing with all this accumulated debt.
Now doubtless the only reason the fund decided to invest the money it was holding in Spanish government bonds wasn't to help the administration hide some debt, probably the fact that risky Spanish bonds pay more than less risky German ones was also a consideration. But this whole thing is a farce, since while the Spanish people innocently believe that they have a partially funded pension system, nothing could really be farther from the truth. In general accounting terms the whole security area comes under the general budget, as was brought to light in the recent deficit numbers the new government brought to light at the start of January. Out of a total of 2.5% of GDP in unexpected deficit, 0.5% came from issues associated with the social security fund - which anticipated a surplus of 0.4% of GDP but finally turned in a deficit of 0.1% of GDP, as can be seen in the nice chart provided by the Ministry (below).
The shortfall was due to a number of factors. In the first place those newly entering the system are paid far more than those who are leaving (due to death or other reasons) - 35% more in fact, since the average monthly payment in 2010 was around 800 Euros, while the average payment to new entrants was 1,100 Euros. Secondly Spain's demography is working against the fund, since as the number of those working falls, and the number of elderly dependents rises, the ratio between the two falls. It is currently at around 2.4, and many experts estimate that the pension system will turn critical when the figure drops below 2.
Currently there are just under 17 million contributors, but the position is worse than it seems, since of these three million are unemployed, with their contributions being paid by another department, and these contributions will terminate when the individuals concerned exhaust their unemployment entitlements. According to Spanish public pensions expert José Mario Paredes Rodríguez, "the data on contributor pensioner ratios is totally misleading" given that the government continues to count as contributors those for whom it is making payments the "calculation is completely unreal since what we need to know is how many people are actually working per pensioner being supported.
So we really have a clear "robbing Peter to pay Paul" type situation, where the numbers are juggled but the debt remains. This risks associated with this situation was brought to light in the recent Greek debt restructuring, since one of the key issues driving Greek politicians to the negotiating table was the threat of seeing their pension fund reserves going up in smoke in the event of a hard default.
"The total portfolio of Greek bonds that the Greek pension funds hold is EUR27 billion," Venizelos said. "That portfolio is being replaced with cash, with new, better bonds of much higher net present value and, further, the parliament has already approved the creation of a special public body through which to transfer public assets to the funds," he added.
"The dilemma we are faced with is cuts so that we can stand on our own two feet, to save the country's pension system and pensions, or economic collapse," Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos told opposition party lawmakers in Parliament today. Without the debt swap, the country's pension funds would be wiped out, he said. The country's central government debt, which doesn't include debt from local government organizations, state-run companies or pension funds, was 368 billion euros at the end of 2011, the ministry said today, amounting to 171 percent of the economy, according to Bloomberg calculations".
The trouble is, this still isn't everything. We also have the contingent liabilities of the state to think about. This - a groso modo - comes in four forms: bank debt guarantees, exposure to the financial system via FROB, the government Instituto de Credito Oficial (ICO) and the Electricity Tariff Fund FADE.
In the case of FROB (Fund For Orderly Bank Restructuring) the true extent of the government's exposure is hard to measure, since while the quantity actually provided by the fund to date is not large (14.8 billion Euros - see this presentation - and 9 billion Euros of FROB debt has been pre-capitalised) a number of savings banks are effectively nationalised while others that are dependent on FROB for loans may well need further intervention. So all we can safely say here is that the number involved is hardly trivial, and on just how "non trivial" the final number is the whole future of Spain's soverign debt will ultimately depend.
Finally, we have the so called Tariff Deficit fund, or FADE (Fondo de Amortización del Déficit Eléctrico). Now despite the name, one thing the debt generated by this body doesn't do is fade (away), since it is growing month by month and year by year. The position is described in the literature as a debt being accumulated by consumers (some 24 billion Euros of it) which is guaranteed by the government. Like the state of their savings in the pension system, most electricity consumers are totally ignorant of the fact that they are acquiring this debt, or better put, that it is being acquired on their behalf. Essentially the situation arises since the government is reluctant to charge an economic price for electricity. Naturally, in a country running an energy driven current account deficit this is a highly questionable practice, but then, there you are.
Basically every month less money comes in in bills than is attributed to the accounts of the electricity companies. The shortfall is made up by borrowing. This borrowing is serviced - you got it - by taking some of the income from electricity bills. But naturally, as the deficit grows - currently it is about 24 billion Euros - more of the income stream is needed to service the exisiting debt, and - yup, you got it again - the deficit grows. The only real solution to this mess is to raise electricity tariffs, but in an environment of rising unemployment and falling wages there are going to be limits to what the government can do in this regard. So while I am sure that the EU will eventually insist tariffs are raised, it is hard to see them being raised far enough to pay off the accumulated debt, and so the government will almost certainly need to "swallow" this, which means - yup you got it again - another 2% or so on the debt account.
Just to round things off, there are some other little details, like public private collaborations in infrastructure. Take motorways for example, many of these (especially around Madrid) were planned at the height of the boom, when traffic was intense - the private sector are of course paid according to the number of cars who use the motorway. Now with the crisis the volume of traffic has fallen considerably everywhere (this is one of the few advantages I have noticed of all this difficult mess, it is now much easier to move around in Barcelona). And with the fall in traffic, incomes have fallen, to such an extent that the participating companies are no longer able to service their debt. Experts suggest the total quantity involved is around 4 billion Euros - peanuts you may think in comparison with the other things we are looking at, but as they say in Spanish "todo suma".
But the great risk they are taking in doing this is raising the acknowledged debt level, up towards the "high risk area" of around 100% of GDP. When you add all the debt up we are already in the high 80% range, and two more years of "normal" deficit plus more funding for the financial sector should take it through the psychological barrier. Naturally investors are noticing this, and Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy's "gaffs", and at the end of last week the Spanish ten year bond spread with the Bund equivalent went above the Italian one for the first time since last summer.
So Spain is on a bad course, with recognised debt about to surge rapidly, while investor confidence in the current administration is slipping. Time for another "gamechanger" I think, since otherwise this car is about to crash.


First, if you don't perform golf on a normal basis, or even if you do, will you truly need to invest in golfing footwear? The answer is: completely sure. As with virtually every activity, the feet act as the basis for all we do, and the footwear are part of that foundation. It really isn't a make a difference of style, but how it aids us in the way we play the game. As golfers we put a great deal of pressure on our ft, and our golf shoes have to not only assistance our foot but also stop slipping during the swing.
Purchase some plastic pump bottles (better yet, conserve plastic pump bottles from previous purchases) and then buy the large economy sizes of shampoo, hair conditioner, body clean, hand sanitizer, hand cleaning soap, and so on. Fill the plastic pump bottles up as needed from the much less expensive economy sized bottles that rarely arrive in a pump dispenser container and location exactly where required. Pump bottles are much easier to handle and you'll be less likely to get as well much of the product and you'll save cash by not wasting.
Aside from the dimension, you ought to also have the appropriate rims for your tires. The rims give your tires the correct support. Obtaining the incorrect rim for your vehicle tire may result in as well much tension on your tires. This could damage your tires quicker than they should be. If you want to personalize your wheels, make sure you seek the advice of specialists who know which tires fit with which rims.
Dealers and merchants can sell wheels and their tires separately. This might be an option for you if you don't truly require to replace your wheels just yet. Sometimes although, it tends to make better feeling to shop for package deals. You can order all 4 ban mobil with their wheels. This can generally help you save a couple of bucks in transport than if you ordered separately.
Adrienne and her boyfriend depart the celebration. Whilst headed to his home, the two are still arguing. He begins driving her back again to her house but Adrienne gets to be angry and jumps out of the vehicle whilst stopped at a crimson mild.
Be certain your garden soaker hose lays flat on level floor and use a regular garden hose to attach to it. That will save water and make sure that the drinking water is heading exactly where you want it.
Rules and phrases might vary from dealer to vendor. Make certain that you study all the fine print prior to clicking the purchase button. You would want to be sure about transport policies, exact costs, hidden costs, guarantee rule and return guidelines. You would have to be at simplicity with all of your vendor's terms before you get a tire and wheel package.
Most importantly is to have enjoyable while traveling in the car. Get plenty of sleep the evening prior to and everybody will have much less tension when you are in a vehicle for lengthy intervals of time.


We've seen WD make a good impact on the NAS market with its My Cloud series over the past couple of years, and now, it aims to continue that impact by breaking into a new segment: business. With its DL2100 and DL4100 NASes, WD claims to bring ease, security, and important functionality to the small business. Does it succeed?
It's extremely enjoyable to play around with new technology. That's the primary benefit of being an editor for Techgage. From new cutting-edge technology to refinements on existing, we get to touch new and exciting gear all of the time. It's a rough lot, we know.
With a focus on the PC industry, there are a few mainstays that have been around for as long as we have been on the Internet, and some of those have been supporters of us from early on. One such company is Western Digital. Our first look at a WD device was posted all the way back in 2006 when Rob put a $220, 500GB hard drive through its paces. Since then, we have looked at many WD devices, most recently its new My Cloud NAS offerings.
Today, we are keeping with the trend started nine years ago by working with the DL4100, WD's four-bay variant of its My Cloud Business series of NAS. The DL4100 is the company's largest offering of Linux-based NAS devices, and we're excited to have it on our testbench.
Some of you might recall our review of the WD My Cloud EX4. That NAS earned an Editor's Choice award for its value, and it's still a great option for home users looking to increase both the capacity and redundancy of their networked storage. Since then, we have looked at a few other "prosumer" class NAS devices and have a few more in our hopper, waiting to publish. Since that review however, Western Digital has worked hard to improve the firmware on its devices, providing additional stability and features. Software has a wonderful way of increasing the value of a product.
The DL4100 looks like almost all four-bay NAS devices available today, excluding rack mounted units. If the brand logos are removed, it looks very similar to the ASUSTOR AS-204TE we looked at a few months ago, and WD's very own My Cloud EX4. With four vertical drive bays along the front of the NAS, the DL4100 offers quick access to the hot-swappable bays. It's unfortunate that the bays cannot be locked, but this is a minor complaint.
There is a blue LCD screen at the top of the DL4100 that provides basic device information such as temperatures, hostname, and IP address. To the right of the screen is a pair of buttons that allow the user to cycle through the readouts. To the left of the drive bays, near the top, is the power button. On the same side but in the lower corner, there is a USB 3.0 port with a button above it. By connecting a drive and pressing the button, the DL4100 will back up the data on the USB drive to a user-defined directory on the NAS's volume.
The left side of the DL4100 has the only ventilation holes to be found. This means that aside from these holes, all air is pulled by the device's large 120mm fan through the ventilation holes in the drive carriers. Once we break open the DL4100, we will see just what these side ventilation holes are helping to keep cool.
Finally, there are a pair of power ports. This allows users to cable the DL4100 up to separate circuits should they be available. Or, they can be plugged into the same circuit or power strip for protection against a PSU failing.
All the way over, in the lower left hand corner, is the standard Kensington locking hole for securing the device.
Drive access of the DL4100 is as simple as it was with the EX4. By actuating the lock at the top of the carrier's handle, the entire handle pops out and downward. There is tension on the drives so they press outward as well when the handle is released. This makes for an uneasy feeling the first time you place a drive in the DL4100 and secure it in place. As we can see, we'll be testing the DL4100 using four of WD's excellent 6TB Red drives.
With the exterior covered, let's do something that we haven't done in quite some time: let's look at the internals. By removing three screws that run the perimeter of the back, we can remove the housing and get to the internals. For everyone reading this that intend to purchase the DL4100, your deconstruction of the unit should end here. With the housing removed, we have access to a SO-DIMM. This allows you to upgrade the system memory of the DL4100 from its stock 2GB up to 6GB.
With the DL4100 apart, let's take a look around. The unit is powered by an Intel dual-core Atom C2338. This CPU is clocked at 1.7GHz and runs hot enough to necessitate passive cooling. For this, a small heatsink is affixed on top of the CPU.
The reverse side of the motherboard shows the vacant SO-DIMM. The only other notable feature on this side of the board is the CMOS battery. This is the side that is exposed when the housing is removed, providing fairly quick access to the two things on the inside that are upgradeable and/or replaceable.
As mentioned, the DL4100 is powered by an Intel Atom C2338. This is shown below.
With a look at the hardware out of the way, let's take a look at the software.


Our facilities are available for residents and visitors to the City of Sydney local area.
We have a great variety of community venues available for hire. They include rooms, halls and auditoriums that are suitable for either community meetings, conferences, functions or weddings.
Find out if your local oval is open or closed in case of wet weather and find the best field, court, pitch or course for your favourite sport.
Make a splash at one of 5 local aquatic centres, each with 50-metre pools and other facilities and services to keep you fit or cool in warmer weather.
Go for a run in one of our major parks, take the kids to a nearby playground, walk the dog in an off-leash park or just sit back and relax in one of many local parks.
Free and coin-operated toilet facilities are available throughout the local area. The National Public Toilet Map can also provide locations right across the country.


MARIYAH Khan took to Instagram to make a thinly veiled dig at her sister-in-law, this week.
After a public spat which even forced Amir to get involved, it seems the long-running issues between the Khan family and Faryal Makhdoom have yet to be resolved.
It comes after Amir's own parents spoke out after Faryal made accusations of against the family, mainly that they had bullied her since she married the famous boxer.
The 25 year old claimed her husband's family told the athlete "to divorce" her while she was nine months pregnant with their first child, Lamaisah.
Amir's mum, Falak Khan, later responded to the claims.
She addressed the situation, and insisted herself and her family have done "nothing wrong".
Speaking to Geo News, she explained: "I will not lie, nor will I try and cover up for someone.
"No one has called Faryal bad names, or beaten her, nor has anyone mistreated her.
She then claimed her son explained his wife of three years wouldn't "listen to him".
"I told Amir as well, but he replied that Faryal does not listen to him and maybe I should speak to her mother," she carried on.
"After that it was never mentioned again.
Faryal was later forced to deny that she and Amir were getting a divorce.
Taking to Instagram to put on a united front with her other half, she captioned a photo of the pair of them with "Till death do us part".


text:
Lin-Manuel Miranda Says More 'Encanto' Is 'A Question of When and Not If'
Matt Singer Published: March 4, 2022
If you have or spend any amount of time with children, you no doubt are very familiar with Encanto, Disney's latest insidious earworm-generating animated feature. The film didn't do much in theaters last year, but its impossibly catchy soundtrack, with songs by Lin-Manuel Miranda, have become ubiquitous anywhere young people congregate and have access to an Alexa-enabled device. (Seriously; whoever invented the Echo clearly did not have children who bask in the freedom of being able to listen to whatever they want on repeat for hours on end.)
With Encanto becoming Disney's most talked about movie since at least Moana (which also had Lin-Manuel Miranda music, come to think of it) there's already a growing demand for a sequel. And apparently Miranda — who also worked on Encanto's story — is on board with making one of some kind.
In an interview with Collider, Miranda said "there's an appetite to further explore the Madrigal family" and said another Encanto is "a question of when and not if, and what form that will take." He added:
Is that another movie? Is that a series? Is that a stage adaptation where we have a little more time, because stage shows are generally an hour longer than movies? And we haven't had conversations as to what form that will take, but I mean, yeah, I'd be down to continue to explore that ...
Miranda also notes that the Madrigal family has so many characters, and so many gifts and magical abilities, that there are a lot of places to explore — and, given where the first film ends, with a "more fully realized version of themselves," a lot of potential for a sequel. And call me crazy, but I have a feeling Disney will want to make one, whether as a film or a television series on Disney+. Just a hunch!
In the meantime, Encanto is now streaming on Disney+.
Sign up for Disney+ here.
The Best Animated Shorts on Disney+
Can't find time for a feature-length cartoon? Check out these great shorts streaming on Disney+.
Source: Lin-Manuel Miranda Says More 'Encanto' Is 'A Question of When and Not If'
Filed Under: Disney, Encanto, Lin-Manuel Miranda
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"Unfreeze your daughters! Unfreeze your heart!"
Stop what you're doing and watch it now!
Plus: Which True Blood star has also signed on?
03:16 — Description: ET was on hand for Jofia's gorgeous wedding -- get the details on the guests, Sofia's fashion and more!
A professional motocross racer is stabbed to death while working on his bike in a garage attached to a house he shared with two women he recently met. The investigation reveals that the victim was about to leave town with the younger of the two women. Acro (more…)A professional motocross racer is stabbed to death while working on his bike in a garage attached to a house he shared with two women he recently met. The investigation reveals that the victim was about to leave town with the younger of the two women. Across town, a woman is run over by her own car in a parking garage. Nick investigates and discovers that the dead woman was an accountant for Kelly Gordon's father, the man who abducted Nick.
A primatologist strives to rescue his beloved and once-peaceful albino gorilla. After an evil genetic experiment goes awry, the gorilla and two other gigantic mutated animals run amok in downtown Chicago.
Marshall recommends an old law-school buddy for a position at the firm, but the job interview doesn't quite work out, and Marshall needs to square things with the boss. Meanwhile, Robin helps Barney get back into the swing of things on the gentlemen's-club (more…)Marshall recommends an old law-school buddy for a position at the firm, but the job interview doesn't quite work out, and Marshall needs to square things with the boss. Meanwhile, Robin helps Barney get back into the swing of things on the gentlemen's-club circuit.


The sight of Roberto Baggio accepting the ball on the halfway line, exchanging a quick one-two before skipping and gliding past the entire Czech defense to score one of the great World Cup goals still brings a thrill to all football fans - even though it's 8 tournaments ago. Pure class.
Il Divin Cordino - Italy Print or canvas has been added to your cart!


Serotonin affects emotions, sleep, anxiety, depression, appetite, pulse and breathing. It also plays a role in serious psychiatric conditions like schizophrenia, bipolar disorder and depression.
"Serotonin essentially modulates every aspect of brain function, including movement," Zhang says. The transmitter is made by a small number of neurons localized on one structure at the back of the brain. Serotonin exerts its influence because the neurons that make it project to almost every part of the brain.
Human serotonin-producing neurons, generated from induced pluripotent stem cells, created in the lab of Su-Chun Zhang in the Waisman Center. Blue indicates cell nuclei, red and green show typical markers for these neurons, which produce a neurotransmitter that affects large parts of the brain.
The study, reported in the journal Nature Biotechnology, began with two types of stem cells: one derived from embryos, the other from adult cells. Because serotonin neurons form before birth, the researchers had to recreate the chemical environment found in the developing brain in the uterus, Zhang says.
The cells showed the expected response to electrical stimulation and also produced serotonin.
Although other scientists have matured stem cells into something resembling serotonin neurons, the case is much more conclusive this time, says first author Jianfeng Lu, a scientist at UW–Madison's Waisman Center.
Instead, those neurons were identified based on cellular markers, which is "not sufficient to say those are functional serotonin neurons," Lu says.
To confirm that the new cells act like serotonin neurons, "we showed that the neurons responded to some FDA-approved drugs that regulate depression and anxiety through the serotonin pathway," Zhang says.
Although cells derived from stem cells are commonly used to test drug toxicity, Zhang is aiming higher with the serotonin neurons. "We think these can help develop new, more effective drugs, especially related to the higher neural functions that are so difficult to model in mice and rats," he says.
Because the neurons can be generated from induced pluripotent stem cells, which can be produced from a patient's skin cells, "these could be useful for finding treatments for psychiatric disorders like depression, where we often see quite variable responses to drugs," says Lu. "By identifying individual differences, this could be a step toward personalized medicine.


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exhibition "Young Photography 2012 1/2. Under the surface", Saint-Petersburg, 2012.
Secrets – It was the name of very popular children's game in USSR. Mostly, 5-8 years old girls were involved in this game. It was not just a game, but rather mystic ritual. I also loved this game and my friends did love it.
Each person made a small pit in the ground, put there some "treasure" of her (such as broken old accessuaries of our mothers, candy wrappers, small flowers, details of toys and other «garbage», which we appreciated very much), covered by a fragment of broken glass and buried into the ground. It was the most important secret of each of us and no one should know where is it. It can be shown only to the best friend.
Then we leaved this secret in the ground for some days, but we should remember where is it, if you forget – you never find it!
After some time we revealed it again and see – what happens with these treasures in the ground. The ground was an other world and putting the treasures into the ground meant something like burial of something intimate. Sometimes we could not find our secrets, sometimes the flowers were rotten or someone found it and the secret was stolen.
My project is about women who moved to Germany from USSR about 15-20 years ago. The main reason for moving was the repatriation of their families, who were captives, deported, displaced persons during and after World War II (so called «Russian Germans»).
I proposed them to remember this game and to recreate it here, in Germany in order to make the secrets from objects which they saved from USSR. Every person could put into the secret what they keep in memory from that Soviet time and store in their homes (and in their souls).


Want more influence over clients, lawyers, juries and colleagues? This class explores the decision-making processes and the factors that influence lawyers, clients and others. Participants will learn easy, and ethical ways to sway the decisions of those they need to get the best results.
Two separate brain processes affect decision-making. By examining the cognitive/conscious as well as emotional/unconscious elements of decisions, and examining relevant professional situations involving clients, colleagues and decision-makers, lawyers develop insight and greater leverage toward increasing influence over clients, other lawyers and decision-makers.
Substantive preparation is obviously essential to achieving maximum results in any professional situation, whether involving a client, an adversary, or in-house staff. At the same time, lawyers frequently compromise their solid positions and well thought out substantive solutions, due to failures in the people aspect of professional practice. In this section, lawyers learn how to prepare to influence clients and colleagues by identifying both the substantive as well as the relationship needs of all concerned.
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No need for a special recipe or equipment.
It's back to basics here.
Dust your work surface with flour before you begin. Keep that flour bucket handy, every now and then you may need a bit more.
1. Pour some flour out and add a few eggs to create a thick consistency.
Mash it with your fingers until it is all incorporated.
This develops the gluten in the flour, for that lovely "al dente" bite.
Let's not talk flabby anymore, okay?
Roll it out. I lost my rolling pin, so we used a big thermos. Ghetto fabulous, baby.
"Make it work" as Tim Gunn would say.
Keep rolling it out, flattening it to about 1/8 inch thickness. In this picture it is still too thick.
Need a visual? Thick as a nail file.
Once it's super flattened and huge like this, hang it up to "dry".
Hang it over a broom (that you have wiped clean first,) and prop it up on two chairs. This allows air to flow through it like pinning clothes on a clothesline. It needs to become semi-dry, but without cracks.
She's picture ready all the time, even in the kitchen. The luck!
Flip it over and let it dry a bit again. The key is a "leather consistency" here. Enlist somebody to help.
After it is ready, (a few hours in most cases, unless you live in the desert,) place it back on the table - after refreshing your table with flour, and cut it into managable rectangles.
Then you will roll these rectangles up, and cut them as below demonstrates.
Also called "tallarines" in Spanish.
Separate it all out and "toss" lightly so that the little stringy bits are not stuck to one another.
It will float to the top when it's done cooking. Taste it.
Is it al dente yet?
Did I mention I LOVE garlic?
I sometimes eat it raw, sliced, with cheddar cheese. Yum yum.
In my absent mindedness, I forgot to take pictures of the sauteing portion and cooking it in the pan.
The following are my "lazy cook" pictures.
I threw everything in at once, raw and all, and cooked it on high for 6 hrs. It was fabulous.
Allison said to saute the onion and garlic in a bit of olive oil first, until transparent, then brown the beef. Add the wine until it evaporates. Add milk, letting it to evaporate as well. Then add the sieved tomatoes, the bay leaves, herbs, and salt. Simmer for a good hour, over low-ish heat, letting everything mix and absorb the liquids.
It will thicken up and turn into a lovely concoction.
If you have the time, do it like this.
Here's a close up of the sauce.
I am forever changed in how I cook pasta.
*Instructions courtesy of Allison's familia in Uruguay. A lovely place, rich in tradition and culture, closely linked with Italian customs and cooking. Have a visit if you are able.
I do have a pasta maker and have made it, but have gotten lazy lately.
There is nothing like home made pasta noodles, so much more flavor than the store bought packages.


We love hearing and reading about positive things being done to honour seniors and their contributions to the world… So, this is something that I wish our Governments did more of….. Did you know that there is something called a Senior Achievement Award in Ontario that the provincial government established to honour seniors who have made an "outstanding contribution to their community after age 65"? Every year 20 people are given this award. To find out more about this or nominate someone you can visit www.citizenship.gov.on.ca/english/citizenship/honours/saa.shtml.


Jay Fetherston has joined Harsch Investment Properties as vice president of retail acquisitions and development. He will oversee development projects within the company's retail portfolio and actively manage new retail property acquisitions in western U.S. markets. Fetherston previously served as a commercial real estate acquisition and redevelopment professional in the Phoenix market, expanding light-rail corridors. His experience also includes financial analysis and underwriting, due diligence, structuring debt and equity.


A tractor-trailer hauling 80,000 pounds of trash overturned on I-575 North at Hickory Flat Highway about 3:30 a.m. Thursday, according to the WSB 24-hour Traffic Center.
A tractor-trailer hauling garbage to a landfill overturned on I-575 in Cherokee County on Thursday morning, spilling thousands of pounds of trash and shutting down the interstate for five hours.
The truck overturned on I-575 North at Hickory Flat Highway about 3:30 a.m., just three exits away from its destination, Channel 2 Action News reported.
The highway reopened about 8 a.m., but trash cleanup continued for several more hours. Crews first pushed the piles of trash from the 80,000-pound rig into the median, then worked to tow it away load by load, said Frank Ray with Mauldin Body Shop and Towing.
"We just took the equipment, raked it off to the side so we could get the road clear as quickly as possible," Ray told Channel 2.
Authorities told Channel 2 that the driver took a curve too fast, causing the truck to flip.
The Traffic Center suggested drivers take Ga. 5 during the shutdown, which caused several hours of backups starting at Sixes Road.


Astrology Q&A: why the Sun sign?
I write a monthly horoscope column (see today's Astrology Q&A which will be published at 5pm today) for this local newspaper... you can read it on their website. Here's a teaser, the opening bit, enjoy!
Humans are complex and cannot be reduced to twelve separate categories. For best results, read this column holistically, as if every sign pertained to some aspect of yourself (as it does). Note: this horoscope is specific to the West Coast.
As the sap rises in the spring, so do our spirits, and the chart this month reflects the old standbys of spring: love, gardening and uplifting joy. How can we be sad, when the birds sing so sweetly and the garden is lush with leafy greens and fresh flowers? Our troubles have been stashed in the backroom for now, our hands itch to be plunged into the soft black earth and our hearts swell with love, beauty, truth and harmony. Our minds are sharp and swift after a long season of doldrums, and spirits rise to greet the Great Spirit that sustains and uplifts us, we experience deep awakenings.
Here's my October horoscope column at the Island Word over on their spiffy brand new website.


Just outside Second City near the intersection of Monty Python Avenue and David Lynch Street (right next to Roy Anderson Ranch) sits Roderick Fenske's brand of humor. You can find it luxuriating in a small castle whilst having a gentle foot bath in rose petals administered by Lilliputians.
It's a sensibility honed from years of working as a creative in the swankier agencies of San Francisco, New York before and London. While working at TBWA London, Roderick began his directing career at the gentle cajoling of one Trevor Beattie, now a legend in the British ad industry.
Ten years later with several hundred commercials, short films and numerous awards — Roderick decided to move everything back to America. Roderick, his family and said humor happily reside together in Los Angeles.