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The influence of tides on the marine carbonate chemistry of a coastal polynya in the south-eastern Weddell Sea
Droste, Elise S.; Hoppema, Mario; González-Dávila, Melchor; Santana-Casiano, Juana Magdalena; Queste, Bastien Y.; Dall'Olmo, Giorgio; Venables, Hugh J.; Rohardt, Gerd; Ossebaar, Sharyn; Schuller, Daniel; +2 more
Droste, Elise S.; Hoppema, Mario; González-Dávila, Melchor; Santana-Casiano, Juana Magdalena; Queste, Bastien Y.; Dall'Olmo, Giorgio; Venables, Hugh J.; Rohardt, Gerd; Ossebaar, Sharyn; Schuller, Daniel; Trace-Kleeberg, Sunke; Bakker, Dorothee C. E.;
Project: EC | CARBOCHANGE (264879)
Tides significantly affect polar coastlines by modulating ice shelf melt and modifying shelf water properties through transport and mixing. However, the effect of tides on the marine carbonate chemistry in such regions, especially around Antarctica, remains largely unexplored. We address this topic with two case studies in a coastal polynya in the south-eastern Weddell Sea, neighbouring the Ekström Ice Shelf. The case studies were conducted in January 2015 (PS89) and January 2019 (PS117), capturing semi-diurnal oscillations in the water column. These are pronounced in both physical and biogeochemical variables for PS89. During rising tide, advection of sea ice meltwater from the north-east created a fresher, warmer, and more deeply mixed water column with lower dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and total alkalinity (TA) content. During ebbing tide, water from underneath the ice shelf decreased the polynya's temperature, increased the DIC and TA content, and created a more stratified water column. The variability during the PS117 case study was much smaller, as it had less sea ice meltwater input during rising tide and was better mixed with sub-ice shelf water. The contrasts in the variability between the two case studies could be wind and sea ice driven, and they underline the complexity and highly dynamic nature of the system. The variability in the polynya induced by the tides results in an air–sea CO2 flux that can range between a strong sink (−24 mmol m−2 d−1) and a small source (3 mmol m−2 d−1) on a semi-diurnal timescale. If the variability induced by tides is not taken into account, there is a potential risk of overestimating the polynya's CO2 uptake by 67 % or underestimating it by 73 %, compared to the average flux determined over several days. Depending on the timing of limited sampling, the polynya may appear to be a source or a sink of CO2. Given the disproportionate influence of polynyas on heat and carbon exchange in polar oceans, we recommend future studies around the Antarctic and Arctic coastlines to consider the timing of tidal currents in their sampling strategies and analyses. This will help constrain variability in oceanographic measurements and avoid potential biases in our understanding of these highly complex systems.
A mosaic of phytoplankton responses across Patagonia, the southeast Pacific and the southwest Atlantic to ash deposition and trace metal release from the Calbuco volcanic eruption in 2015
Vergara-Jara, Maximiliano J.; Hopwood, Mark J.; Browning, Thomas J.; Rapp, Insa; Torres, Rodrigo; Reid, Brian; Achterberg, Eric P.; Iriarte, José Luis;
Project: EC | OCEAN-CERTAIN (603773)
Following the eruption of the Calbuco volcano in April 2015, an extensive ash plume spread across northern Patagonia and into the southeast Pacific and southwest Atlantic oceans. Here, we report on field surveys conducted in the coastal region receiving the highest ash load following the eruption (Reloncaví Fjord). The fortuitous location of a long-term monitoring station in Reloncaví Fjord provided data to evaluate inshore phytoplankton bloom dynamics and carbonate chemistry during April–May 2015. Satellite-derived chlorophyll a measurements over the ocean regions affected by the ash plume in May 2015 were obtained to determine the spatial–temporal gradients in the offshore phytoplankton response to ash. Additionally, leaching experiments were performed to quantify the release from ash into solution of total alkalinity, trace elements (dissolved Fe, Mn, Pb, Co, Cu, Ni and Cd) and major ions (F−, Cl−, SO42-, NO3-, Li+, Na+, NH4+, K+, Mg2+ and Ca2+). Within Reloncaví Fjord, integrated peak diatom abundances during the May 2015 austral bloom were approximately 2–4 times higher than usual (up to 1.4 × 1011 cells m−2, integrated to 15 m depth), with the bloom intensity perhaps moderated due to high ash loadings in the 2 weeks following the eruption. Any mechanistic link between ash deposition and the Reloncaví diatom bloom can, however, only be speculated on due to the lack of data immediately preceding and following the eruption. In the offshore southeast Pacific, a short-duration phytoplankton bloom corresponded closely in space and time to the maximum observed ash plume, potentially in response to Fe fertilisation of a region where phytoplankton growth is typically Fe limited at this time of year. Conversely, no clear fertilisation on the same timescale was found in the area subject to an ash plume over the southwest Atlantic where the availability of fixed nitrogen is thought to limit phytoplankton growth. This was consistent with no significant release of fixed nitrogen (NOx or NH4) from Calbuco ash. In addition to the release of nanomolar concentrations of dissolved Fe from ash suspended in seawater, it was observed that low loadings (< 5 mg L−1) of ash were an unusually prolific source of Fe(II) into chilled seawater (up to 1.0 µmol Fe g−1), producing a pulse of Fe(II) typically released mainly during the first minute after addition to seawater. This release would not be detected (as Fe(II) or dissolved Fe) following standard leaching protocols at room temperature. A pulse of Fe(II) release upon addition of Calbuco ash to seawater made it an unusually efficient dissolved Fe source. The fraction of dissolved Fe released as Fe(II) from Calbuco ash (∼ 18 %–38 %) was roughly comparable to literature values for Fe released into seawater from aerosols collected over the Pacific Ocean following long-range atmospheric transport.
A mosaic of phytoplankton responses across Patagonia, the SE Pacific and SW Atlantic Ocean to ash deposition and trace metal release from the Calbuco 2015 volcanic eruption
Following the April 2015 eruption of the Calbuco volcano, an extensive ash plume spread across northern Patagonia and into the SE Pacific and SW Atlantic Ocean. Here we report the results of field surveys conducted in the marine region receiving the highest ash load following the eruption (Reloncaví Fjord). The fortuitous location of a long-term monitoring station in Reloncaví Fjord provided data to evaluate inshore phytoplankton bloom dynamics and carbonate chemistry during April–May 2015. Satellite derived chlorophyll-a measurements over the ocean regions affected by the ash plume in May 2015 were obtained to determine the spatial-temporal gradient in offshore phytoplankton response to ash. Additionally, leaching experiments were performed to quantify the release of total alkalinity, trace elements (Fe, Mn, Pb, Co, Cu, Ni and Cd) and major ions (Fl, Cl, SO4, NO3, Li, Na, NH4, K, Mg, Ca) from ash into solution. Within Reloncaví Fjord, integrated peak diatom abundances during the May 2015 austral bloom were higher than usual (up to 1.4 × 1011 cells m−2, integrated to 15 m depth), with the bloom intensity perhaps moderated due to high ash loadings in the two weeks following the eruption. In the offshore SE Pacific, a short duration phytoplankton bloom corresponded closely in space and time to the maximum observed ash plume, potentially in response to Fe-fertilization of a region where phytoplankton growth is typically Fe-limited at this time of year. Conversely, no clear fertilization was found in the area subject to an ash plume over the SW Atlantic where the availability of fixed nitrogen is thought to limit phytoplankton growth which was consistent with no significant release of fixed nitrogen from ash. In addition to release of nanomolar concentrations of dissolved Fe from ash suspended in seawater, it was observed that low loadings (−1) of freshly deposited ash were an unusually prolific source of Fe(II) into solution (up to 1.0 µmol Fe g−1), suggesting that the release of bioaccessible Fe from ash sources may generally be under-estimated when quantified from aged ash. This release of Fe(II) may make freshly deposited ash an unusually efficient dissolved Fe source with the 18–38 % fraction of dissolved Fe released as Fe(II) from Calbuco ash roughly comparable to literature values for Fe released into seawater from aerosols collected over the Pacific Ocean.
Wintertime dynamics in the coastal northeastern Adriatic Sea: the NAdEx 2015 experiment
Vilibić, Ivica; Mihanović, Hrvoje; Janeković, Ivica; Denamiel, Cléa; Poulain, Pierre-Marie; Orlić, Mirko; Dunić, Natalija; Dadić, Vlado; Pasarić, Mira; Muslim, Stipe; +8 more
Vilibić, Ivica; Mihanović, Hrvoje; Janeković, Ivica; Denamiel, Cléa; Poulain, Pierre-Marie; Orlić, Mirko; Dunić, Natalija; Dadić, Vlado; Pasarić, Mira; Muslim, Stipe; Gerin, Riccardo; Matić, Frano; Šepić, Jadranka; Mauri, Elena; Kokkini, Zoi; Tudor, Martina; Kovač, Žarko; Džoić, Tomislav;
Project: EC | EUROFLEETS2 (312762)
The paper investigates the wintertime dynamics of the coastal northeastern Adriatic Sea and is based on numerical modelling and in situ data collected through field campaigns executed during the winter and spring of 2015. The data were collected with a variety of instruments and platforms (acoustic Doppler current profilers, conductivity–temperature–depth probes, glider, profiling float) and are accompanied by the atmosphere–ocean ALADIN/ROMS modelling system. The research focused on the dense-water formation (DWF), thermal changes, circulation, and water exchange between the coastal and open Adriatic. According to both observations and modelling results, dense waters are formed in the northeastern coastal Adriatic during cold bora outbreaks. However, the dense water formed in this coastal region has lower densities than the dense water formed in the open Adriatic due to lower salinities. Since the coastal area is deeper than the open Adriatic, the observations indicate (i) balanced inward–outward exchange at the deep connecting channels of denser waters coming from the open Adriatic DWF site and less-dense waters coming from the coastal region and (ii) outward flow of less-dense waters dominating in the intermediate and surface layers. The latter phenomenon was confirmed by the model, even if it significantly underestimates the currents and transports in the connecting channels. The median residence time of the coastal area is estimated to be approximately 20 days, indicating that the coastal area may be renewed relatively quickly by the open Adriatic waters. The data that were obtained represent a comprehensive marine dataset that can be used to calibrate atmospheric and oceanic numerical models and point to several interesting phenomena to be investigated in the future.
Zooplankton diel vertical migration in the Corsica Channel (north-western Mediterranean Sea) detected by a moored acoustic Doppler current profiler
Guerra, Davide; Schroeder, Katrin; Borghini, Mireno; Camatti, Elisa; Pansera, Marco; Schroeder, Anna; Sparnocchia, Stefania; Chiggiato, Jacopo;
Project: EC | JERICO-NEXT (654410), EC | OCEAN-CERTAIN (603773)
Diel vertical migration (DVM) is a survival strategy adopted by zooplankton that we investigated in the Corsica Channel using acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) data from April 2014 to November 2016. The principal aim of the study is to characterize migration patterns and biomass temporal evolution of zooplankton along the water column. The ADCP measured vertical velocity and echo intensity in the water column range between about 70 and 390 m (the bottom depth is 443 m). During the investigated period, zooplanktonic biomass had a well-defined daily and seasonal cycle, with peaks occurring in late winter to spring (2015 and 2016) when the stratification of the water column is weaker. Zooplanktonic biomass temporal distribution in the whole water column is well correlated with biomass of primary producers, estimated with satellite data. Zooplanktonic blooming and non-blooming periods have been identified and studied separately. During the non-blooming period zooplanktonic biomass was most abundant in the upper and the deep layers, while during the blooming period the upper-layer maximum in zooplanktonic biomass disappeared and the deep layer with high zooplanktonic biomass became thicker. These two layers are likely to correspond to two different zooplanktonic communities. The evolution of zooplanktonic biomass is well correlated with chlorophyll, with phytoplankton biomass peaks preceding the upper-layer secondary production by a lag of about 3.5 weeks. Nocturnal DVM appears to be the main pattern during both periods, but reverse and twilight migration are also detected. Nocturnal DVM was more evident at mid-water than in the deep and the upper layers. DVM occurred with different intensities during blooming and non-blooming periods. One of the main outcomes is that the principal drivers for DVM are light intensity and stratification, but other factors, like the moon cycle and primary production, are also taken in consideration.
Arctic Mediterranean exchanges: a consistent volume budget and trends in transports from two decades of observations
Østerhus, Svein; Woodgate, Rebecca; Valdimarsson, Héðinn; Turrell, Bill; Steur, Laura; Quadfasel, Detlef; Olsen, Steffen M.; Moritz, Martin; Lee, Craig M.; Larsen, Karin Margretha H.; +7 more
Østerhus, Svein; Woodgate, Rebecca; Valdimarsson, Héðinn; Turrell, Bill; Steur, Laura; Quadfasel, Detlef; Olsen, Steffen M.; Moritz, Martin; Lee, Craig M.; Larsen, Karin Margretha H.; Jónsson, Steingrímur; Johnson, Clare; Jochumsen, Kerstin; Hansen, Bogi; Curry, Beth; Cunningham, Stuart; Berx, Barbara;
Project: EC | NACLIM (308299), NSF | The Arctic Observing Netw... (1022472), NSF | IPY: An Innovative Observ... (0632231), EC | Blue-Action (727852), NSF | An Observational Array fo... (0230381), EC | THOR (212643)
The Arctic Mediterranean (AM) is the collective name for the Arctic Ocean, the Nordic Seas, and their adjacent shelf seas. Water enters into this region through the Bering Strait (Pacific inflow) and through the passages across the Greenland–Scotland Ridge (Atlantic inflow) and is modified within the AM. The modified waters leave the AM in several flow branches which are grouped into two different categories: (1) overflow of dense water through the deep passages across the Greenland–Scotland Ridge, and (2) outflow of light water – here termed surface outflow – on both sides of Greenland. These exchanges transport heat and salt into and out of the AM and are important for conditions in the AM. They are also part of the global ocean circulation and climate system. Attempts to quantify the transports by various methods have been made for many years, but only recently the observational coverage has become sufficiently complete to allow an integrated assessment of the AM exchanges based solely on observations. In this study, we focus on the transport of water and have collected data on volume transport for as many AM-exchange branches as possible between 1993 and 2015. The total AM import (oceanic inflows plus freshwater) is found to be 9.1 Sv (sverdrup, 1 Sv =106 m3 s−1) with an estimated uncertainty of 0.7 Sv and has the amplitude of the seasonal variation close to 1 Sv and maximum import in October. Roughly one-third of the imported water leaves the AM as surface outflow with the remaining two-thirds leaving as overflow. The overflow water is mainly produced from modified Atlantic inflow and around 70 % of the total Atlantic inflow is converted into overflow, indicating a strong coupling between these two exchanges. The surface outflow is fed from the Pacific inflow and freshwater (runoff and precipitation), but is still approximately two-thirds of modified Atlantic water. For the inflow branches and the two main overflow branches (Denmark Strait and Faroe Bank Channel), systematic monitoring of volume transport has been established since the mid-1990s, and this enables us to estimate trends for the AM exchanges as a whole. At the 95 % confidence level, only the inflow of Pacific water through the Bering Strait showed a statistically significant trend, which was positive. Both the total AM inflow and the combined transport of the two main overflow branches also showed trends consistent with strengthening, but they were not statistically significant. They do suggest, however, that any significant weakening of these flows during the last two decades is unlikely and the overall message is that the AM exchanges remained remarkably stable in the period from the mid-1990s to the mid-2010s. The overflows are the densest source water for the deep limb of the North Atlantic part of the meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), and this conclusion argues that the reported weakening of the AMOC was not due to overflow weakening or reduced overturning in the AM. Although the combined data set has made it possible to establish a consistent budget for the AM exchanges, the observational coverage for some of the branches is limited, which introduces considerable uncertainty. This lack of coverage is especially extreme for the surface outflow through the Denmark Strait, the overflow across the Iceland–Faroe Ridge, and the inflow over the Scottish shelf. We recommend that more effort is put into observing these flows as well as maintaining the monitoring systems established for the other exchange branches.
Operational Assimilation of glider temperature and salinity in a mesoscale flow field: Eastern Mediterranean test case
Hayes, Daniel R.; Dobricic, Srdjan; Gildor, Hezi;
Project: EC | GROOM (284321), EC | BRIDGES (635359)
An operational data assimilation system for the Eastern Mediterranean is described and evaluated for a 6-month twin experiment. In the assimilative run, glider profiles of temperature and salinity are assimilated daily into a high resolution ocean forecast, after an initial spin up of one week. In the control run, the same initial and boundary conditions are used to produce an operational forecast, but without assimilation of in situ data. While both runs were similar for most of the time and most of the domain, significant differences were found near the region of assimilation, particularly when the glider passed through the anticyclonic Cyprus eddy. Root mean square differences of the misfits between the temperature and salinity observations and the model background field at those locations (before any assimilation) were approximately 15% lower in the assimilative run. Improvements in the forecasting capability of surface currents were found, and would provide a significant improvement of predictive capacity for applications such as pollutant spreading or offshore operational safety.
A stable Faroe Bank Channel overflow 1995–2015
Hansen, Bogi; Húsgarð Larsen, Karin Margretha; Hátún, Hjálmar; Østerhus, Svein;
Project: EC | NACLIM (308299), EC | THOR (212643)
The Faroe Bank Channel (FBC) is the deepest passage across the Greenland–Scotland Ridge (GSR) and there is a continuous deep flow of cold and dense water passing through it from the Arctic Mediterranean into the North Atlantic and further to the rest of the world ocean. This FBC overflow is part of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which has recently been suggested to have weakened. From November 1995 to May 2015, the FBC overflow has been monitored by a continuous ADCP (acoustic Doppler current profiler) mooring, which has been deployed in the middle of this narrow channel. Combined with regular hydrography cruises and several short-term mooring experiments, this allowed us to construct time series of volume transport and to follow changes in the hydrographic properties and density of the FBC overflow. The mean kinematic overflow, derived solely from the velocity field, was found to be (2.2 ± 0.2) Sv (1 Sv = 106 m3 s−1) with a slight, but not statistically significant, positive trend. The coldest part, and probably the bulk, of the FBC overflow warmed by a bit more than 0.1 °C, especially after 2002, increasing the transport of heat into the deep ocean. This warming was, however, accompanied by increasing salinities, which seem to have compensated for the temperature-induced density decrease. Thus, the FBC overflow has remained stable in volume transport as well as density during the 2 decades from 1995 to 2015. After crossing the GSR, the overflow is modified by mixing and entrainment, but the associated change in volume (and heat) transport is still not well known. Whatever effect this has on the AMOC and the global energy balance, our observed stability of the FBC overflow is consistent with reported observations from the other main overflow branch, the Denmark Strait overflow, and the three Atlantic inflow branches to the Arctic Mediterranean that feed the overflows. If the AMOC has weakened during the last 2 decades, it is not likely to have been due to its northernmost extension – the exchanges across the Greenland–Scotland Ridge.
Carbon geochemistry of plankton-dominated samples in the Laptev and East Siberian shelves: contrasts in suspended particle composition
Tesi, Tommaso; Geibel, Marc C.; Pearce, Christof; Panova, Elena; Vonk, Jorien E.; Karlsson, Emma; Salvado, Joan A.; Kruså, Martin; Bröder, Lisa; Humborg, Christoph; +2 more
Tesi, Tommaso; Geibel, Marc C.; Pearce, Christof; Panova, Elena; Vonk, Jorien E.; Karlsson, Emma; Salvado, Joan A.; Kruså, Martin; Bröder, Lisa; Humborg, Christoph; Semiletov, Igor; Gustafsson, Örjan;
Project: EC | CC-TOP (695331), EC | ARCTIC (300259), EC | ACTIVE PERMAFROST (328049)
Recent Arctic studies suggest that sea ice decline and permafrost thawing will affect phytoplankton dynamics and stimulate heterotrophic communities. However, in what way the plankton composition will change as the warming proceeds remains elusive. Here we investigate the chemical signature of the plankton-dominated fraction of particulate organic matter (POM) collected along the Siberian Shelf. POM (> 10 µm) samples were analysed using molecular biomarkers (CuO oxidation and IP25) and dual-carbon isotopes (δ13C and Δ14C). In addition, surface water chemical properties were integrated with the POM (> 10 µm) dataset to understand the link between plankton composition and environmental conditions. δ13C and Δ14C exhibited a large variability in the POM (> 10 µm) distribution while the content of terrestrial biomarkers in the POM was negligible. In the Laptev Sea (LS), δ13C and Δ14C of POM (> 10 µm) suggested a heterotrophic environment in which dissolved organic carbon (DOC) from the Lena River was the primary source of metabolisable carbon. Within the Lena plume, terrestrial DOC probably became part of the food web via bacteria uptake and subsequently transferred to relatively other heterotrophic communities (e.g. dinoflagellates). Moving eastwards toward the sea-ice-dominated East Siberian Sea (ESS), the system became progressively more autotrophic. Comparison between δ13C of POM (> 10 µm) samples and CO2aq concentrations revealed that the carbon isotope fractionation increased moving towards the easternmost and most productive stations. In a warming scenario characterised by enhanced terrestrial DOC release (thawing permafrost) and progressive sea ice decline, heterotrophic conditions might persist in the LS while the nutrient-rich Pacific inflow will likely stimulate greater primary productivity in the ESS. The contrasting trophic conditions will result in a sharp gradient in δ13C between the LS and ESS, similar to what is documented in our semi-synoptic study.
Coastal ocean acidification and increasing total alkalinity in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea
Kapsenberg, Lydia; Alliouane, Samir; Gazeau, Frédéric; Mousseau, Laure; Gattuso, Jean-Pierre;
Project: NSF | OCE PRF: Track 2 (Interna... (1521597), EC | EPOCA (211384), EC | MEDSEA (265103)
Coastal time series of ocean carbonate chemistry are critical for understanding how global anthropogenic change manifests in near-shore ecosystems. Yet, they are few and have low temporal resolution. At the time series station Point B in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea, seawater was sampled weekly from 2007 through 2015, at 1 and 50 m, and analyzed for total dissolved inorganic carbon (CT) and total alkalinity (AT). Parameters of the carbonate system such as pH (pHT, total hydrogen ion scale) were calculated and a deconvolution analysis was performed to identify drivers of change. The rate of surface ocean acidification was −0.0028 ± 0.0003 units pHT yr−1. This rate is larger than previously identified open-ocean trends due to rapid warming that occurred over the study period (0.072 ± 0.022 °C yr−1). The total pHT change over the study period was of similar magnitude as the diel pHT variability at this site. The acidification trend can be attributed to atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) forcing (59 %, 2.08 ± 0.01 ppm CO2 yr−1) and warming (41 %). Similar trends were observed at 50 m but rates were generally slower. At 1 m depth, the increase in atmospheric CO2 accounted for approximately 40 % of the observed increase in CT (2.97 ± 0.20 µmol kg−1 yr−1). The remaining increase in CT may have been driven by the same unidentified process that caused an increase in AT (2.08 ± 0.19 µmol kg−1 yr−1). Based on the analysis of monthly trends, synchronous increases in CT and AT were fastest in the spring–summer transition. The driving process of the interannual increase in AT has a seasonal and shallow component, which may indicate riverine or groundwater influence. This study exemplifies the importance of understanding changes in coastal carbonate chemistry through the lens of biogeochemical cycling at the land–sea interface. This is the first coastal acidification time series providing multiyear data at high temporal resolution. The data confirm rapid warming in the Mediterranean Sea and demonstrate coastal acidification with a synchronous increase in total alkalinity.


This paper will be published in the Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society: "Temperatures of lunar impact flashes: mass and size distribution of small impactors hitting the Moon." by C. Avdellidou and J. Vaubaillon.
This paper presents an analysis of the observed lunar impact flashes caused by objects in the cm to dm size range. A possible link with individual meteoroid streams is considered.
You can download this paper for free: https://arxiv.org/pdf/1902.00987.pdf (12 pages).
This paper appeared in Planetary & Space Science, Special Issue on Asteroid (3200) Phaethon and Meteoroids: "Arecibo Radar Observations of Near-Earth Asteroid (3200) Phaethon During the 2017 Apparition", by Patrick A. Taylor, Edgard G. Rivera-Valentín, Lance A.M. Benner, Sean E. Marshall, Anne K. Virkki, Flaviane C.F. Venditti, Luisa F. Zambrano-Marin, Sriram S. Bhiravarasu, Betzaida Aponte-Hernandez, Carolina Rodriguez Sanchez-Vahamonde and Jon D. Giorgini.
This paper sketches a picture based on radar observations of asteroid (3200) Phaethon, the parent body of the Geminids.
You can download this paper for free: https://arxiv.org/pdf/1902.00969.pdf (18 pages).
The third paper appears in Astronomy and Astrophysics: "Debris of asteroid disruptions close to the Sun", by Quanzhi Ye and Mikael Granvik.
The paper describes the mechanism of heat driven disruption of rocky objects with small perihelion distances and how these can be associated to known Sun approaching meteor streams.
You can download this paper for free: https://arxiv.org/pdf/1902.01758.pdf (18 pages).


A detailed electrical drawing forms the basis of communicating the wiring and connection details to the manufacturing and support teams. It is important to share details of the logical and physical connections to ensure accurate comprehension of a system. The E3.series design suite enables users to add details such as signals, wires and termination details on connections (automatically in most cases).
An Attribute Text Template is the most common and effective solution to display the details of a connection on any drawing. These templates just like other symbols and components in the library are customizable to suit user preferences. As a result, a wide variety of attributes from wires, connectors, and devices can be combined to open almost limitless possibilities.
The text template is created and managed in the library editor with a sizeable selection available out of the box. The templates can be set to be added by default in the process of making connections as well as adding wires on a connection. A text template highlights the section of the wire or connection to signify the selection of the segment.


Norr Tray is made from natural materials with visible and living structures. The simple, rectangular form and the tactile leather grip makes it easy to carry – perfect for servings in bed, on the balcony or around the fireplace. As time passes, the oak and leather will patinate beautifully.


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Home Opinion Pakistan's Commitment to Strategic Restraint Regime
Image courtesy: South Asian Voices
Strategic Restraint Regime (SSR) was first offered by Pakistan to India in the year 1998. It consisted of three significant elements; reduction in armed forces, stable deterrence and peacefully resolving all the lingering disputes. It was proposed in response to Cold Start Doctrine as a result of which India planned combined military strikes inside Pakistan in order to prevent Pakistan from using strategic weapons. While speaking at the UN, Pakistan's permanent representative said that Pakistan's offer for Strategic Restraint Regime still remains on the table in order to ensure peace and stability in the region. In light of the increasing threat of India's pre-emptive strike, SSR would curb the arms build-up highlighting Pakistan's commitment towards non-proliferation in South Asia.
Also read: Ballistic Missile Defence System in South Asia
The Strategic Restraint Regime would reduce the dependence of India and Pakistan on external powers by offering a pathway that excludes the great power factor from security calculus. There are three interlocking elements of SSR such as missile and nuclear restraint, conventional balance, and conflict resolution needs to be adopted collectively because of their interlocking nature. SSR consists of measures for conventional balance and nuclear restraint, conflict resolution through a result-oriented dialogue, non-deployment or acquisition of BMDs, maintaining nuclear weapons on low alert status, avoiding any kind of missile, nuclear or conventional arms race, and nuclear test moratoriums. However, despite Pakistan's continuous efforts, India has been reluctant in engaging in such issues due to its quest to attain global power status which it will never be able to attain. Unless the regional disputes are resolved among both states, India's global ambitions will always remain a challenge.
The most pertinent of all is the unresolved Kashmir issue among both states. The durable peace in the region is unattainable unless the Kashmir issue finds a plausible solution. Similarly, geographic instability and vertical nuclear proliferation are the results of a conventional imbalance in the region. It is quite evident from history that arms control measures have always helped to bridge the trust deficit and reduce the tension among the rival states. The Strategic Restraint Regime offered by Pakistan covers all such contours that are necessary for stability and holistic peace in the region. Pakistan while reiterating its call for Strategic Restraint Regime proposed that it would be mutually beneficial for both states. It would also provide both states with viable options to deal with the emerging technologies that have added new layers of complexities to the stability of the region. Moreover, it would also help to address the disruptive technologies such as BMDs "Ballistic Missile Defense Systems", hypersonic glide vehicles, Agni-V, and curb the nuclearization of the Indian Ocean. All these emerging technologies would disrupt the deterrence equilibrium in the region if necessary measures are not taken for arms control and disarmament.
Also read: Irresponsible Case of India's Accidental Missile Launch and its Implications
Pakistan by introducing SSR and by offering various arms control measures has always been open for dialogue and confidence-building measures. Pakistan has always adhered to unilateral restraint even in terms of growing nuclear asymmetries in the region. It was India's development of BMD that led Pakistan to develop MIRV "Multiple Independent Reentry Vehicle", furthermore it was the nuclearization of the Indian Ocean that forces Pakistan to develop SRBM. Various proposals were put forth by Pakistan in front of India such as the non-development of the BMD system which could have curtailed the development of MIRV and offered to declare the Indian Ocean a Nuclear Weapon Free Zone but all went in vain as India refused to engage in any of the among proposals. The Lack of cooperation and reciprocity has only increased the instability in the region.
In order to address the conventional and non-conventional asymmetries and to address the regional and global challenges, Strategic Restraint Regime offers a comprehensive and holistic approach towards nuclear disarmament. Pakistan has been arguing for a very long time that conventional asymmetries between both Pakistan and Indian armed forces are encouraging a nuclear arms race in the region that would lead to a huge conflict. The three-point formula offered by the Strategic Restraint Regime includes balance among the conventional forces, dispute resolution particularly the Kashmir conflict, and measures for missile and nuclear restraint that would result in long-lasting peace in the region. Pakistan has always reacted with restraint to Indian provocations and threats but it's high time that both nations collectively agree on measures to stop vertical proliferation in the region.
Sher Bano Khan
The writer is working as a Research Affiliate at the Strategic Vision Institute (SVI), a non-partisan think-tank based out of Islamabad, Pakistan.
Strategic Restraint Regime
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Jets.com, a private aviation brokerage firm, allows clients to book a flight on demand or pre-purchase trips by the hour
by Jessica Jones-Gorman • Photos By Doug Polle
Edgar Alacan was a Wall Street guy, building a career in the brokerage industry, when a friend opened a private jet company in 2007 and asked for his help getting the business off the ground…as it were.
"Private travel was something that always intrigued me— many of my customers were wealthy individuals who used services like this to travel around the world," Alacan said. "But I had no prior experience in the aviation industry— I just signed on to help out my friend."
After working in the company for about a year, Alacan became enamored with the field of private aviation. "It was life changing to be a part of this fun, glamorous world. Totally different from what I was doing, such an interesting lifestyle and profession." So, together with two friends and business partners, he launched Jets.com.
"I learned the business with my childhood friend, Manni Scarso and Damian Klinger, who worked in the brokerage industry with me," Alacan said, naming his website's other co-founders. "We started our own company in 2008 because after spending time learning the ins and outs of this business, we felt there was a need and a particular market for a company and a website like this."
They started small but enjoyed rapid expansion: One office with a smallish staff suddenly grew to two locations and then a third. Today, the operation has offices in New York, New Jersey, and Boston staffed by a total of 50 employees.
The company provides two services. Charter, or flight on demand, is booked just like a limo ride; customers can access quotes and availability online or speak directly to a personalized service representative to arrange their private plane. Or, clients can pre-purchase a Jet Card which is loaded with 25 hours of flight time. Each time a flight is booked, the appropriate hours are deducted from the card total. "It's one of our most popular options" Alacan said. "Customers pre-purchase hours at a certain rate and then book with those hours each time they fly. You have 25 hours on the card, take a flight that is three hours, there's now 22 hours left to spend. For clients who fly often on business, it's the most sensible option."
Jets.com clients include a lot of executives from Fortune 500 firms and other frequent high-end business travelers. Destinations include airports all over the world and popular aircrafts are selected from a range of models, like the Hawker400XP, Lear 60XR, Challenger 300 and the Phenom 100. Prices vary, but Alacan says they are able to offer the best, most competitive rates because they maintain exclusive arrangements with large fleets and purchase hours at wholesale prices.
"We are a charter broker," Alacan said. "We serve as the middleman between fleet operation and flyers. So as a company, we pre-purchase hours from larger fleets and then pass the savings on to our clients."
The holiday season remains Alacan's busiest time, with a combination of holiday travel and endof-
year business trips dominating the skies. "Our fourth quarter, which starts in September and extends to the end of the year, is always our busiest time," the co-owner said. "People are back from summer vacation, attending to business, and then all of the holiday travel takes place as well."
And the success that his business has garnered in the past seven years will most likely lead to expansion in the future.
"We plan on making some growth in 2015, possibly acquiring a couple of small private jet operators and of course are always looking at bringing on more employees," Alacan concluded. "This is a wonderful, fun, and interesting line of work. And we only hope to develop it further in the future."
JETS.COM
Tags: business, New Jersey, travel
Peace, Passion, Perfection
Luxury at Sea


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Phone: 202-359-6141 Fast, Fair and Effective Conflict Resolution
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The following are among those who have used my services:
Two international oil drilling companies
The Carter Center
A national construction company
A regional airline
A national financial services company
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The founder of an international restaurant chain
A national food products company
Two top-5 accounting firms
Various individuals
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Superior Court of the District of Columbia (Civil, Real Estate, Tax, Probate, Family)
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"It's hard for me to think of anyone who would be better qualified to do conflict resolution!"
Donald C. Alexander, former Commissioner, Internal Revenue Service
"I would like to express my sincere appreciation for the very fair manner in which I was treated during the mediation. I really believe that had it not been for your guidance during the negotiating process it is likely that a settlement would not have been reached. Again, thank you."
Mark F. Schultz, CEO, FaulknerUSA, Austin, Texas
"You were/are everything we wanted. Your experience and wisdom come through in a powerful way - powerful listening and powerful speaking. Thank you so."
Terry Flood, Director Jubilee Jobs, Washington, D.C.
"Thank you! My struggle with IRS is over. Your long experience and excellent judgment in mediation were precisely targeted and effective. Your friendly demeanor made it easy to call upon you."
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"I first worked with Carolyn Parr over 20 years ago, and she has impressed me over all these years as being strong, decisive, fair, and smart, as well as having great 'people skills.' It seems to me that these are just the qualities you want from an ADR neutral. And, sure enough, those who have used her for ADR work tell me she is first rate."
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Happily divorced in the District
"I've known Carolyn through a spiritual community for about 20 years and have had the wisdom of her drive, insight, integrity, truth-speaking, humor and intelligence. When I was given the opportunity to buy a business with another acupuncturist I knew that engaging Carolyn's partnership could create a lot of ease and perspective with the complex dialogue, negotiations, power struggles, vision and contractual details. Her presence, deep listening and reflection did just that and served not only myself but everyone involved in the process. Now that I'm moving ahead with the business I have the confidence of knowing that I can always re-engage Carolyn if I need to and that gives me great comfort!"
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Mark Martin, Esq. Partner at Gardere, Wynne, Sewell, LLP
"I have had the opportunity to work with Carolyn Parr in person, in groups, and in organizational matters, both face to face and via emails and phone conversations. On target, well prepared, insightful, with a strong sense of boundaries that allow others to access her talent for analysis and wit."
Tom Fiutak Professor, University of Minn. Law school
"Carolyn is easy to recommend. She is dedicated, caring, intelligent, motivated, responsible, enthusiastic, talented, creative, and a pleasure to work with. She initiates and follows through, imagines and implements. She is skillful in working with people and conflicts."
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(Ken Cloke is a leader in the field of Mediation and author of �Mediating Dangerously.�)
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Halstead's Bay (sometimes spelled Halsted's) is the westernmost bay of Lake Minnetonka. It is in the cities of Minnetrista and Mound, in Hennepin County, Minnesota. It is named for the settler Frank W. Halsted, who migrated to its shores in 1855. Its main tributary is Six Mile Creek that enters the bay from the west. Access to the bay is provided by a public boat launch along Halstead's Drive.

The bay is one of the last on Lake Minnetonka to see intensive modern residential development. It has the distinction of being downstream from the city of Saint Bonifacius, which did not adequately treat its sewage until the early 1980s, when it connected to the metropolitan area sewage system. Its northern and eastern shores in places have steep terrain leading down to the bay. Two examples are the Bluffs neighborhood on the north, and the Eagles Bluff area.

References

Bodies of water of Hennepin County, Minnesota
Bays of Minnesota

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Jessica Laid back, down to earth, have to see you smile and full of Gypsy charm! I'm not a fairy tale because I love all the perfect imperfections.
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Melissa I'm looking to be a very good friend to someone special. I have a lot of love to give. I just need someone to shower it on. Are you that someone? Write me! I may need you.... You may need me. I can't wait to find out. Lonely at Lowell!!
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Let me start by saying I am a 29 year old female, 5'10" weight 140 lbs. Until last year I was physically active and exercised regularly. I will first list my symptoms and then what's been done medically.
I have chronic inflammation of the abdomen. It is accompanied by generalized pain and cramping, as well as pain in the left lower quadrant. It is also accompanied by general tenderness. Sometimes the swelling is aggravated by eating, sometimes by any movement that involves my abdominal muscles (i.e. running the vacuum cleaner, lifting laundry basket). Also, I can no longer do even a few sit-ups without having aggravated levels of pain for several days.
I have fatigue levels that go from a feeling of over-tiredness, to having a lot of difficulty getting out of bed and staying awake all day. My fatigue is accompanied by moderate to severe joint pain and muscle aches. At times I feel as though I am bruised all over my body. The joints in my hands and feet visibly swell, often with redness.
I have episodes of rectal bleeding that usually last 3 days or so, with bright red blood.
I have irritable bowel symptoms. I have a hard time digesting any type of meat. I also cannot take liquid vitamins (such as vitamin E) without squeezing the substance out of the gelcap. If I do not, and instead swallow the gelcap, I wind up with sharp pains throughout my abdomen for hours afterward. I have a significantly decreased appetite due to an almost constant feeling of fullness.
I went nearly a year without menses. I was late to start menstration, and I always had a somewhat irregular schedule, but normally would have heavy cycles, and sometimes multiple cycles within one month.
I've had a full GI workup, including GERD, colonoscopy, and various gallbladder tests. My gallbladder operates at about 33% effectiveness, but my GI doctor advised me that removing it would solve little, if any, of my problems. As far as the other tests they showed only mild gastritis.
I've had a uterine biopsy, which showed no abnormalities. I am currently seeing an OBGYN who plans on doing a colposcopy and an abdominal ultrasound. I've had a few ultrasounds already which showed "prominent uterus and ovaries".
Naturally, I've had several CBC's and other blood tests, checking for levels of important blood components. All came back within normal limits.
I am basically in search of ideas as to what this could all mean? I don't know if I ask too much or not.
Thank you for reading this far. Any feedback would be appreciated.


In other words, effective sun safety apparel ought to protect against both UV B and UV A rays, and sun protective products such as those specially manufactured by Stingray in Australia, do exactly that.Stingray is the original sun protection clothing company to specialize in UV protection swimwear and daily attire for children and adults. "As a result of listening to the needs of our many customers, we are able to deliver products that take the out of the sun rays, says Wendy Lister, Managing Director of Stingray. "[People] are now getting the best possible UV protection." Those living at high altitudes or near the equator, have the highest risk in for skin cancer, according to the American Academy of Dermatology.Glen and Liisa Tomson, both natives of South Africa, know first hand the devastating toll sun damage can take on our health.
replica oakley sunglasses It chokes me up just thinking about it. We are all trying to be supportive of her but it is still awkward at times. She will come in and her face is all red. Eliminating all bias to guarantee a perfect serving size is not practical, but making wine drinkers aware of environmental factors can limit the extent to which they over pour. To better understand this impact, researchers asked participants to identify which factors may have caused them to pour too much. The factors that ranked highest, such as the wide glass, were those with the greatest influence on pouring replica oakley sunglasses.


It's been an exciting summer for Commander players, with the release of Eldritch Moon, Conspiracy: Take the Crown, and now Kaladesh. New cards, new mechanics, and new versions of a few old friends mean new directions for deck builders to explore. It's even more exciting to us that the format is in such a healthy place that no changes are required. As we do each time, we examined cards from both sides of the banned list and found the balance much to our liking. As the Rules Committee celebrates our tenth year, we remain committed to actively maintaining that equilibrium. We look forward to sharing the ride with you for the next ten.
* One small change we're going to make is to remove the House Rules page from the web site. Having it there has led to some confusion about which rules are official and which aren't, specifically sideboards (or "wish boards" as they're called). In our continuing effort to clarify and simplify, we've chosen to remove the confusion. We nonetheless encourage you to develop your own house rules where the Official Rules don't fit your local groups.


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Category: The Cassia Life
Long Road to Immunity
Yes, long, and sometimes rough and hard to follow. The toughest question has been, "Who's next?" (to get vaccinated against Covid-19). And just as important, "Who says who's next?" Mix in unrelated major happenings–a highly… READ MORE
Scammers Pick Seniors as a Favorite Target
Seniors appear to be a favorite telephone target of scammers out to make a quick buck. They too have a bottom line, call it profit. Remarked one senior who gets lots of scam calls, "They keep calling don't they? That means they're making a profit." READ MORE
Cost Significantly Higher for Groceries Delivered
When it comes to grocery shopping, a little experimenting can be misleading. I've been comparing two different ways of buying the groceries I need: (1) ordering on-line with home delivery, and (2), visiting the supermarket myself, making my selections, and doing my own delivery. READ MORE
Those Old Family Photos
Like Gold Hidden Away Just where are they right now–your cache of old family pictures? Numbering in the hundreds, maybe the thousands, such collections might include prints, negatives, slides, digital prints on your home computer,… READ MORE
Pandemic's Legacy to be With Us in Future
The end of the pandemic appears to be coming closer. Dare we hope? A variety of companies are seeking approval for use of their immunization products in the USA. And this Friday morning as I edit this blog, my morning newspaper's front page headline reads, "Pfizer vaccine gets key U.S. OK." And the world's first Covid-19 vaccination is being given today to a British woman. Millions eventually will follow world wide. READ MORE
Financing Retirement: Do-able but Challenging
It can be a tough pull, here's some math: You plan to retire at 65 and expect to live on to age 85 or 90. At the extreme that's 25 years of retirement. READ MORE
'New' Concept for Seniors: Active Aging
"Retirement? I hate it! I'd rather be working." Speaking was Dr. Erskine Caperton, a St. Paul, Minnesota, MD who, five months ago, closed his full-time rheumotology practice and retired. The pressure was on from officials… READ MORE
How to Really Love an Old Guy
In a few words, be present and attentive. In other words, be there, constantly and faithfully. To really love an old guy, love so that he knows it. In any emotion-based endeavor, long-lasting support is love from the heart. READ MORE
Special Power in Senior Vote
One person, one vote. It's the way we conduct elections here in the USA, and perhaps the way it should be everywhere. One vote per person probably comes as close as a system can in delivering equal impact per person. READ MORE
The Cassia Life · Page:


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Hanna Shea Persson
COSTUME DESIGN & CONSTRUCTION
Vita I Desiderio
Tamed
Mademoiselle Papillon
50's Dress
Mermaid Top
Color Me Idiom
Humbert Humbert
Tamed...for the screen, New York 1948
August-December 2013
Tamed takes the viewer through the steps it takes to design, create, and alter costumes made for a period film. The exhibition presents a hypothetical situation in which the costume designer has been tasked to create costumes for a film adaptation of the play Taming of the Shrew, now set in New York in 1948. By showcasing four characters' costumes during pivotal scenes, we are able to witness character development, as well as class distinction and the social trends of the time. Thorough research and interviews assisted the design process, allowing the story to come to life through the fabric. In assembling a collection of costumes, which were purchased, altered, and designed we can see the wide range of methods a costume designer employs to achieve the desired results.
Graphic Design: Maria Jose de la Riva
Photography: Ari Colliard
© 2016 by HANNA SHEA PERSSON


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In which I "dangerise" cycling again
On Thursday I attended the session of the London Assembly Transport Committee on cycle safety. Some of the things I and another Cycling Embassy of Great Britain member, Tim Lennon, said in the debate have been reported here. I won't give a general account of the debate, in which representatives of London Cycling Campaign, British Cycling, CTC and Sustrans all said some very good things which I hope will find their way into the committee's ultimate report, and influence the Mayor and Transport for London. But I will mention the opinions of one Richmond councillor, their "Cycling Champion", no less, Conservative Katherine Harborne, and I will put here, in more detail, the response that I gave to her in the debate, and this will inevitably lead me into a discussion, again, of the danger of cycling in the UK.
I broach this subject again not because I wish to dwell on bad things, but because I believe, and have believed for a long time, that realism on this subject is critical to generating the environment of honest debate that must be the necessary foundation for a real political movement to restore cycling to the major component of our transport system that it once was, and needs to become again, if we are to deal with the environmental challenges of the very near future, of which the greatest is probably global warming.
I don't need to quote what Katherine Harborne said in the debate because she issued a press release in response to the Transport committee's consultation beforehand which said very similar things. I have linked there to Richmond Cycling Campaign's website, and it is interesting to read there of the other correspondence that RCC have had with her. Anyway, her press release says:
Katharine Harborne is the Cycling Czar for the London Borough of Richmond, where she is also a councillor.
"We have no family car and never have," she says. "Cycling gives freedom to me and my family – and keeps me fit. My teenage son is working to get on the Olympic cycling programme.
"But we are still some way from getting cycling accepted – and more people on their bikes. In fact research from British Cycling found that nearly a million women would like to start riding a bike, but many are put off by safety concerns.
"Despite millions of pounds being spent making our roads from 2009-2011 less dangerous, safety fears have in fact increased by half in that period.
"A 2011 report reveals that almost half [48%] of occasional cyclists think safety is a big issue and yet less than a quarter [23%] of regular cyclists think it is.
"So if we want to encourage more people to cycle maybe we should stop going on about how dangerous it is because, frankly, it isn't and we're just putting people off.
"Making London more cycle-friendly isn't just about cycling superhighways or giving tipper trucks and skip lorries a lot of respect at junctions – 24% of people who commute in London could cycle, but don't.
"Many don't because they would get to work sweaty and have nowhere to shower or get changed. So why not encourage employers to provide more shower facilities or encourage businesses that are better equipped to Share A Shower – allowing cyclists from other firms to use their facilities?"
Lets forget about the funny business at the end of proposing that lack of shower facilities is a reason why our children, parents and neighbours don't cycle on London's roads. Does anyone think that every Dutch or Danish person who takes a 2 km bike trip at 15 km/h in their normal clothes on their sit-up-and-beg bike has a shower at the end of it?
Let's think about the meat of this whole approach, which is, and has been, shared by many others, including many prominent voices in prominent cycling organisations:
Other politicians who have told us in recent times that "Cycling is not dangerous" are transport ministers Norman Baker and Mike Penning, as I reported in a previous post on a session of the Commons Transport Select Committee, at which they grievously misused statistics to try to suggest, incredibly, that the UK is doing a good job on cycle safety, better even than the Dutch. The link just quoted, to Jim Gleeson's statistics blog (Drawing) Rings Around The World, gives the truth of the matter, that cycling in the Netherlands is more than twice as safe per km travelled than cycling in the UK as measured from the official KSI statistics (Killed and Seriously Injured) issued by the two governments. But there is far more to it than this, as Jim Gleeson's subsequent post showed.
For cycling is so widespread across all age-groups in the Netherlands that a very significant number of the KSIs in that country categorised as cycling casualties are one-person incidents: basically, as I mentioned once before on this blog, Dutch cycling conditions are so safe that an awful lot of elderly Dutch people just drop dead on their bikes, or have crashes causing injury that involve no other vehicle, and these are in the statistics. We really need to look, as Jim Gleeson does, at the rates, per km travelled, of death and serious injury of cyclists who are in collision with a motor vehicle to properly assess the safety records of the two countries, in regards how it should influence decision-making on street engineering and the segregation of bikes and cars.
When we do this, the results are astounding. There are 508 KSIs involving motor vehicles per billion km cycled in the UK, compared with 61 in the Netherlands, a ratio of 8.3.
Cycling, in regards interactions with motor vehicles, is really 8.3 times safer in the Netherlands.
Their record is not just better, it is fantastically better. And fantastically better with a far wider demographic cycling, including large numbers of old, frail people who are far more likely to be killed or injured as a result of a given impact with a motor vehicle, or the ground, than the young, fit people who make up most of the British cycling demographic. And, one also might note, these are just the people, along with children, who could not be expected to mitigate danger in a purely vehicular cycling environment (that is, space shared with fast motor traffic) by cycling fast and assertively in Cyclecraft-recommended manner. So the Dutch cycling safety space is clearly a different world to that of the UK.
Apart from comparing cycle safety between different countries, which represents a contrast that will not actually be felt by British people unless they actually try to cycle in those countries and here as well, we can also compare safety of different transport modes within the UK, describing a contrast that they can feel, and react to, on a daily basis, in making their decisions on transport mode.
In the Department for Transport's Annual Report on road casualties for Great Britain 2009 (the last year for which full details are available) we discover (Table 1g) that the rate of cycle casualties (KSI) in that year was 880 per billion vehicle miles. In Table 1i we find that the rate of car user casualties (KSI) was 45 per billion vehicle miles. 880/45=19.55. Note that these are figures per billion vehicle miles, not person miles. Because average car occupancy is greater than 1, the rate per occupant is lowered, while for bikes the vehicle mile figure is the person mile figure. UK average car occupancy is 1.6. Therefore the danger ratio per person mile, bikes to cars, was in 2009 about 31.
It's about 30 times more dangerous per mile to cycle than to travel by car in the UK.
Now it is often held that the casualty rate per mile is not that important in comparing transport modes, because different modes have different uses. We expect, generally, to make longer journeys, covering therefore more miles, at least for the average person, by car or train or plane than by bike. Yet consider this. One of the main arguments you constantly hear advanced in cycle promotion is something along these lines:
Half of all car journeys in Outer London are less than two miles in length, equating to a journey of about 10 minutes by bike.
(Cycling Revolution London, TfL, 2010)
So there's the suggestion that people in general should be perfectly happy and willing just to swap the car for the bike for all these many short journeys they do. That's telling people not to live their lives in a different way, travel less or do anything else differently, that's just telling them to go on doing exactly all the things that they are doing now, but to use a mode of transport that is 30 times more dangerous than the one they are using! Telling them just increase their risk of death or serious injury on the road, by their own choice, their own actions, by a not insignificant factor of 30!
I don't think that makes sense, frankly. I think that's treating people as idiots, as I said in the London Assembly debate. People are just not going to respond to this message. They are not going to cycle under current conditions unless they really want to cycle, or they really have to (e.g. for financial reasons), and if they really want to cycle, because they love cycling, and thus can put up with the risk, they will be doing it already. But if people with some power like Cllr Harborne stop telling people cycling is "safe", and instead do more to make it safer, then more people will give it a go, even though it will never, judging from the Dutch experience, be as safe as travelling in a car. (And the Dutch have really tried, big-time, to make cycling "safe", reducing the cycling to driving casualty ratio per km to 3.5.) Cllr Harborne, bear in mind, is she who was dismissive of the need for wider 20 mph zones in Richmond in a letter to Richmond Cycling Campaign least year.
If we are to ever make progress on this, I think the advocates of cycling need to stop treating the public like idiots who cannot correctly judge what is or is not an unacceptably dangerous activity for them to engage in. I think they can judge. I think those for whom cycling would be massively dangerous under current conditions generally make a correct judgement not to do it, and even for those who judge that it is not unacceptably dangerous, it's still far more dangerous than doing the same journey by car, and their doing it at all depends on their sense of enjoyment, judgement of convenience, and sometimes, a financial incentive. Only motorcycling is significantly more dangerous per mile than cycling (about 4 times). The danger of walking is comparable to that of cycling (Annual Report 2009 Chart 1e), but we expect journeys by foot to be shorter, and everybody walks, not a restricted demographic.
There is another argument that floats around this area, that is, that people gain in years of life from cycling, due to avoidance of heart disease and other illnesses associated with obesity, more, on average, than they loose due to death in crashes. So it's kind of healthy to cycle, even if it's dangerous. The British Medical Association have been arguing this since 1992, and the report they produced then, authored by Mayer Hillman, now out of print, but re-quoted in their 1997 document Road Transport and Health, held that:
Even in the current hostile traffic environment, the benefits gained from regular cycling [are] likely to outweigh the loss of life through cycling accidents for the population of regular cyclists. One calculation has shown the ratio to be around 20:1.
I suspect there is a lot of uncertainty here, implied in the phrase "one calculation", as there would be a lot of factors to take into account. Would, for example, more cycling mean that people walked less? In any case, this has always struck me as a rather weak promotional argument. This is, in the first place, because it involves people thinking about remote imponderables in their lives. It involves them needing to agree to make an exchange of a very clear, tangible threat in the present, of getting knocked off a bike on the road, for a promised benefit in the far future which they may well not accept as being very real. They might argue "Well if I don't die of that, I'll probably die of something else soon after", or, more rationally, they might argue that they can, and prefer to, get exactly the same health benefit from another choice of exercise or strenuous activity, whether that be running, swimming, going to the gym, or gardening, without the risk or injury or death in traffic that comes with cycling. So I don't think trying to frighten people into taking up cycling with the threat of heart disease decades down the line gets as much traction as many would hope it might.
I think we actually can get more people cycling in three ways. We can make it:
Relatively safer
Relatively more convenient (or faster)
Relatively cheaper
The last of these is the only one we are really doing in the UK at the moment, and more by accident than design, with rising costs of fuel and public transport. I think this is the main factor that has been driving the modern increase in cycling in London. But if we get more people on bikes by this method, we get more deaths and injuries. As even Chris Peck of the CTC acknowledged at the Assembly debate, in the last couple of years, casualty increases have outstripped the increase in cycling, despite the CTC generally in the past having been rather fervent advocates of the "Safety in Numbers" theory. I don't think that's a great policy success. I want more people to cycle, for all the health and environmental and social benefits I think it would bring, but I don't want to go back to the 1930s situation, when we had plenty of cyclists on the streets (quite how many it is difficult to tell, as I have never seen any transport statistics for the pre-war period), and eleven were being killed every week in London, about 35 times the current death rate.
I don't think non-cyclists are much influenced by how dangerous people like me or Cllr Harborne say cycling is or isn't. They do what they feel is sensible for them. No political movement ever gained any traction by telling the vast majority of the population that their basic, gut feelings about what they should do are wrong. We shouldn't expect anything different in respect of cycling. And even if that rule were proved false in this case, and the masses responded to Cllr Harbone's message (and those of others like her) and started cycling just because they are told they should, without other policy changes to make the roads safer for them, I don't think there would be any social or moral progress there, and it's not a thing with which I would want to be associated. I want more people to cycle because they really find it pleasurable, relaxing and safe, not because they are told they should, or are dragooned into it through lack of other affordable choice.
Labels: cycling, Cycling policy, danger, Safety
Husband. Dad. Geek. 14 July 2012 at 08:01
David, great read and very thought-provoking.
Question: you brushed over the per-hour rate, but I believe that's a critical measure. Most UK people are willing to commute for up to an hour each way, max - either by foot, bike, car or train. If you don't want to drive, you put together other modes. So I could drive for 90 minutes, or put 10 minutes either side of a 55 min train ride. To understand my relative risk I need to compare 90 mins of driving vs. 20 mins cycling. Mileage is irrelevant. If I go for an hours Sunday drive vs. an hours bike ride, which is 'safer'? Clearly mileage is a distraction, as this then depends on road quality, congestion, car type, propensity to speed, etc etc...
David Arditti 14 July 2012 at 16:39
Yes Mike, I think this is a further complication that you can regard cycling either as a method of covering distance, getting places, or as an activity, a means of occupying time. I have focussed on the utility aspect of cycling, where it is basically a method of making a journey that you definitely need to make by some means or other, and there the per mile risk seems highly relevant to me.
But if you are comparing an hour's Sunday drive versus an hour's bike ride, then you are talking about a way of occupying leisure time, and the total risk of the activity is more relevant than the per mile risk. Whatever, you certainly seem to get far more people occupying time with cycling, doing it for leisure, when you remove the risks of motor vehicle interaction, as the success of the Sustrans traffic-free cycleways show.
David Hembrow 14 July 2012 at 08:37
Quite right David.
Existing campaigners often make statements which can be reduced to "I do it, so you can do it too".
However, by doing this they forget why it is that they are cyclists, while the majority of the population are not. Anyone who cycles now in the UK, including Cllr Harbone, is by definition easy to attract to cycling.
In order to grow the modal share, we need cycling to become attractive to a much wider demographic, including those people who are not so easily attracted to cycling.
Different people have a need for a different degree of safety, and in particular, subjective safety. People who are scared to cycle now will remain scared to cycle unless conditions are made much better.
It doesn't matter how many times existing cyclists tell non-cyclists that "the water's just fine", they're not going to swim until the shark is taken out of the swimming pool.
Jim Moore 14 July 2012 at 11:46
Two points if I may:
Firstly, as someone whose job it is to propose economically justifiable transport projects, being able to include the health benefits of cycling in the Benefit:Cost ratio would be great. I agree with you that as way to encourage people to choose cycling it will never work.
Secondly, I often experienced a form of the 'safety in numbers' effect when crossing the road with lots of other pedestrians at special events, most commonly at football matches here in Australia, where by sheer mass the crowd would stop the cars from moving. So perhaps this is what proponents of this form of 'safety' are hoping for. But you only have to have seen the footage of the car driver with murderous intent driving through the Brazillian Critical Mass ride to see how unsafe this is. Whenever I hear 'safety in numbers' I always feel like I'm being asked to be a penguin in the wild at feeding time, and cycle with the expectation that one day the leopard seal waiting just below the surface of the ice (i.e. The errant motorist) will catch me out of the hundreds of us that all jump in the water at once. I'd like to think my human life deserves more than this.
Great post by the way. More really useful arguments for me to use to further convince my non-cycling colleagues to support proper safe cycling infrastructure.
Har 14 July 2012 at 16:19
The 'safety in numbers' sounds a bit like being invited to a suicide mission; "Only 30 % of you will you will survive, but you will all be heroes.", which makes riding a bike a hard sell. I know I wouldn't have send my son out on his bike if those would have been the odds. Katharine Harborne's remarks are fine and dandy, but cycling in London is nothing like cycling in Rotterdam, where I happen to live; even driving a car is nothing like it. I, like most people, don't wan't to make myself belief I'm perfectly safe, it has to be a verifiable fact. Millions of pounds wasted on the Olympic Games; money that could have been spent on making London a liveable city, for both pedestrians and cyclists.
Sandy 14 July 2012 at 17:33
I have a largish family, and I can't persuade any of them on a bike, even though they all have bikes that have been sitting in their sheds for years, at a time when they each may have got the urge to cycle, and gave it up after one or two rides out. Why can't I get them to break out their bikes? Because they say it's far too dangerous and no fun being terrified every time a car is heard coming up beside you.
I cycle and I "know" it's dangerous out there.
I only cycle because when I retired 4 years ago I bought a trike. Motorists are more wary of a pensioner on a trike as it's large and also gives the impression I am disabled. So I am relatively safer than other cyclists. Even then I have had a couple of really bad scares.
6 weeks ago I bought a 2 wheeler. I had to learn to ride it as I have never ridden a bike before. I have made myself safe on that, because I break the law and ride on pavements. There is no way in hell anyone is going to force me to ride sharing the road with metal weapons traveling at anything up to 60mph, with what could be a lunatic in control of it.
I am your average Joe, or Joe'ess you might say, of the general public, representing both the elderly and those that have never cycled before. I do not commute, I do not live in a major city, I just want to cycle to get my shopping, visit friends and family, and go off for fun days out. I want to take my bike on a train to other towns and know that as I get off there is going to be a safe cycling infrastructure for me to use and explore. I don't want to have to look up the safest way to get from strange A to strange B before I travel anywhere. I just want to know that a car, can't kill me.
Now I just wonder what percentage of the population I represent. I heck of a lot I bet you.
London and other cities might slowly get more fit, healthy, active, commuters on their bikes with the stupid Super Highways but they wont get every other Tom, Dick, or Harry, on their bikes.
Cycling is far too dangerous for that.
One-person incidents can be significant in (parts of?) UK too according to 'Annex A' of this report
http://online.surreycc.gov.uk/legcom/CouncilP.nsf/f5fb086c73d64f3000256954004aed25/10268189e384b19880257a0e00369d2c?OpenDocument
Kim 15 July 2012 at 21:23
Absolutely right! If we want to make the roads safer, we must first face up to the fact that we need to change. International evidence shows that if you really want to make the roads safer then infrastructure is key.
christhebull 18 July 2012 at 12:33
Indeed. I think statistical appeals to the general public are useless, because the health effects of a sedentary lifestyle usually kick in during the latter stages of a person's natural lifespan - however, those killed in road traffic collisions are often people around my age, in the prime of their lives, killed suddenly, who could have gone and lead a fulfilling life. Even though in the long term, most of my friends are more likely to die of lung cancer, cirrhosis or other lifestyle related diseases than be killed on our roads, I suspect most people are far more accepting of the inevitability of a slow death than a random and unnatural one.
Ultimately, there is NO problem regarding cycle campaigners "dangerising cycling" putting people off, because we already have enough coverage of road deaths in the mainstream media (which will reach a much greater audience than the CTC would) to do that. I suggest we ensure we are able to portray cycling as a safe activity where the danger is imposed by motor traffic, and that we try to make highway authorities move away from "road safety" towards "health and safety" in terms of minimising danger at source.
Paul Luton 24 July 2012 at 21:41
All forms of vigorous exercise have some degree of hazard. ISTR that gardening comes out worse than cycling. (Doesn't stop me cycling to my allotment however). Not that I am arguing that cycling needn't be made safer but I would still encourage non-cyclists to get a bike.
Yebbut the danger of cycling does not come from the "vigorous exercise" itself (few die of a heart attack while cycling), but from the environment. Fundamental difference, isn't it? People don't mind doing quite dangerous things if it's their choice, and fundamental to the activity. So people go skydiving, rock-climbing etc. But cycling danger is mostly imposed unnecessarily on the activity by the environment it is done in, the street with all its traffic; it's a separate layer of risk, ands one that those who don't really love cycling or don't have to do it will never want to take on. Why should they?
I find it hard to believe anyway that gardening could be more dangerous. You don't hear people say: "I would go gardening, but I'm frightened of getting hurt".
In the end it's how people feel that counts, and while other activities are risky, there is not the wide spectrum of social benefits to, say rock-climbing, that creates the imperative to try to get people to do it, that there is with cycling. That's why we need to try much harder to get people on bikes than up mountains, or even into their gardens.
congokid 12 September 2012 at 13:20
Apologies if someone has already raised this, but given that "Only 6 per cent of [presumably vehicle occupant] fatalities occurred on motorways, although they took 20 per cent of traffic" (from the Department for Transport's Annual Report on road casualties for Great Britain 2009 you linked to), how does this affect your assertion that "the danger ratio per person mile, bikes to cars, was in 2009 about 31"?
I don't see in the report where the DoT has separated out drivers' non-motorway and dual carriageway miles from all vehicle miles. Otherwise the number you've ended up with is the result of comparing oranges with apples.
If it does include miles from motorways and other roads that for whatever reasons cyclists are unlikely to use, then perhaps the figure is skewed downward from the true figure.
Is it instead worth comparing KSI rates per journey, rather than billion miles travelled?
David Arditti 12 September 2012 at 16:11
I agree that that affects the argument about short trips to a certain extent, as these will not be made on motorways, which are particularly safe for cars, so the non-motorway risk per mile for car occupants will be higher than I have calculated. But only a bit.
The per trip risk is certainly several times higher for cyclists than drivers. As I pointed out in this post, in the Borough of Camden, though 3% of journeys are by bike, 19% of road casualties are cyclists, suggesting a risk per trip ratio of 6:1 bike:car.
Jonathan Hopkin 23 January 2013 at 15:38
This is absolutely spot on. I don't think any amount of statistics is going to convince most people that the kind of situation cyclists routinely face are safe. I used to believe the safety in numbers story too, but I get the feeling that only works if the numbers lead to political pressure to improve provision. In other words, it's a spurious correlation. Just having lots of cyclists in the same car-centric environment doesn't make it safer. I've been cycling in London for 5 years and if anything it seems to be getting worse.
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