text:
The Discovery of Global Warming Spencer Weart
June 2007 [ HOME ] Table of Contents for printer
The Modern Temperature Trend
Tracking the world's average temperature from the late 19th century, people in the 1930s realized there had been a pronounced warming trend. During the 1960s, weather experts found that over the past couple of decades the trend had shifted to cooling. With a new awareness that climate could change in serious ways, many scientists predicted a continued cooling, perhaps a phase of a long natural cycle or perhaps caused by human pollution of the atmosphere with smog and dust. Others insisted that the effects of such pollution were temporary, and humanity's emission of greenhouse gases would bring warming over the long run. This group's views became predominant in the late 1970s. As global warming resumed it became clear that the cooling spell (mainly a Northern Hemisphere effect) had indeed been a temporary distraction. When the rise continued into the 21st century with unprecedented scope, scientists recognized that it signaled a profound change in the climate system.
"The subject... is a vast one, and only too easily submerged in an ocean of repelling statistics, unless firm measures are taken to reduce the mass of data into a form which eliminates distracting or irrelevant detail..." — G.S. Callendar(1) climate change, urban heat island, cities, Little Ice Age, Medieval Warm Period, satellites, upper atmosphere, hockey stick
If you had a certain type of mind, temperature statistics could be more absorbing than a book of crossword puzzles. Ever since the invention of the thermometer, some amateur and professional scientists had recorded the temperature wherever they happened to be living or visiting. During the 19th century, government weather services began to record measurements more systematically. By the 1930s, observers had accumulated millions of numbers for temperatures at stations around the world. It was an endlessly challenging task to weed out the unreliable data, average the rest in clever combinations, and compare the results with other weather features such as droughts. Many of the players in this game pursued a hope of discovering cycles of weather that could lead to predictions. Perhaps, for example, one could correlate rainfall trends with the eleven-year sunspot cycle.
More discussion in
<=>Solar variation
Adding interest to the game was a suspicion that temperatures had generally increased since the late 19th century — at least in eastern North America and western Europe, the only parts of the world where reliable measurements went back so far.(2) In the 1930s, the press began to call attention to numerous anecdotes of above-normal temperatures. The head of the U.S. Weather Bureau's Division of Climate and Crop Weather responded in 1934. "With 'Grand-Dad' insisting that the winters were colder and the snows deeper when he was a lad," he said, "...it was decided to make a rather exhaustive study of the question." Averaging results from many stations in the eastern United States and some scattered locations elsewhere around the world, the weather services found that "Grand-Dad" was right: average temperatures had risen several degrees Fahrenheit (°F) since 1865 in most regions. Experts thought this was simply one phase of a cycle of rising and falling temperatures that probably ambled along for centuries. As one scientist explained, when he spoke of the current "climate change" he did not mean any permanent shift, but a long-term cyclical change "like all other climate fluctuations."(3)
<=>Public opinion
= Milestone
It may have been the press reports of warming that stimulated an English engineer, Guy Stewart Callendar, to take up climate study as an amateur enthusiast. He undertook a thorough and systematic effort to look for historical changes in the average global temperature. One 19th-century German had made an attempt at this in seeking a connection with sunspot cycles. Otherwise, if anyone else had thought about it, they had probably been discouraged by the scattered and irregular character of the weather records, plus the common assumption that the average climate scarcely changed over the span of a century. But meteorologists around the world had meticulously compiled weather records, and Callendar drew upon that massive international effort. After countless hours of sorting out data and penciling sums, he announced that the temperature had definitely risen between 1890 and 1935, all around the world, by close to half a degree Celsius (0.5°C, equal to 0.9°F).(4) Callendar's statistics gave him confidence to push ahead with another and more audacious claim. Reviving an old theory that human emissions of carbon dioxide gas (CO2) from burning fuel could cause a "greenhouse effect," Callendar said this was the cause of the warming. (For the old theory, follow the link in the righthand column from the essay on Simple Models of Climate. For scientific views of Callendar's day on the theory, follow the link to the essay on The CO2 Greenhouse Effect.)
=>CO2 greenhouse
Callendar's warming
<=Simple models
It all sounded dubious to most meteorologists. Temperature data were such a mess of random fluctuations that with enough manipulation you could derive all sorts of spurious trends. Taking a broader look, experts believed that climate was comfortably uniform. "There is no scientific reason to believe that our climate will change radically in the next few decades," the highly respected climatologist Helmut Landsberg explained in 1946. "Good and poor years will occur with approximately the same frequency as heretofore."(5) If during some decades there was an unmistakable climate change in some region, the change must be just part of some local cycle, and in due time the climate of the region would revert to its average.
(By the end of the 20th century, scientists were able to check Callendar's figures. They had done far more extensive and sophisticated analysis of the weather records, confirmed by "proxy" data such as studies of tree rings and measurements of old temperatures that lingered in deep boreholes. The data showed that the world had in fact been warming from the mid 19th century up to about 1940, mostly because of natural fluctuations. As it happened, most of the warming had been in the relatively small patch of the planet that contained the United States and Europe — and thus contained the great majority of scientists and of those who paid attention to scientists. But for this accident, it is not likely that people would have paid attention to the idea of global warming for another generation. That would have severely delayed our understanding of what we face.)
<=>CO2 greenhouse
During the 1940s only a few people looked into the question of warming. A prominent example was the Swedish scientist Hans Ahlmann, who voiced concern about the strong warming seen in some northern regions since early in the century. But in 1952, he reported that northern temperatures had begun to fall again since around 1940.(6) The argument for warming caused by CO2 emissions, another eminent climatologist wrote in 1949, "has rather broken down in the last few years" when temperatures in some regions fell.(7) In any case (as yet another authority remarked), compared with the vast slow swings of ice ages, "the recent oscillations of climate have been relatively small."(8)
If the North Atlantic region was no longer warming, through the 1940s and 1950s it remained balmy in comparison with earlier decades. People were beginning to doubt the assumption of climate stability. Several scientists published analyses of weather records that confirmed Callendar's finding of an overall rise since the 1880s.(9) An example was a careful study of U.S. Weather Bureau data by Landsberg, who was now the Bureau's chief climatologist. The results persuaded him to abandon his belief that the climate was unchanging. He found an undeniable and significant warming in the first half of the century, especially in more northern latitudes. He thought it might be due either to variations in the Sun's energy or to the rise of CO2.(10) Others pitched in with reports of effects plain enough to persuade attentive members of the public. Ahlmann for one announced that glaciers were retreating, crops were growing farther north, and the like.(11) Another striking example was a report that in the Arctic "the ice is thinner at the present than ever before in historic times," and before long we might even see an open polar sea.(12) Such high-latitude effects were exactly what simple models suggested would result from the greenhouse effect warming of increased CO2.
=>Public opinion
=>Simple models
=>Aerosols
=>Chaos theory
"Our attitude to climatic 'normals' must clearly change," wrote the respected climate historian Hubert H. Lamb in 1959. Recent decades could not be called normal by any standard of the past, and he saw no reason to expect the next decades would be "normal" either. Actually, since the 1930s the temperatures in his own homeland, Britain, had been heading down, but Lamb would not speculate whether that was the start of a cyclical downtrend. It could be "merely another wobble" in one region. Lamb's main point, reinforced by his scholarly studies of weather reports clear back to medieval times, was that regional climate change could be serious and long-lasting.(13) Most meteorologists nevertheless stuck to their belief that the only changes to be expected were moderate swings in one part of the world or another, with a fairly prompt return to the long-term average. If there was almost a consensus that for the time being there was a world-wide tendency to warming, the agreement was fragile.
<=>Climatologists
In January 1961, on a snowy and unusually cold day in New York City, J. Murray Mitchell, Jr. of the U.S. Weather Bureau's Office of Climatology told a meeting of meteorologists that the world's temperature was falling. Independently of Callendar (who had meanwhile been updating and improving his own global temperature history), Mitchell had trudged through all the exacting calculations, working out average temperatures for most of the globe, and got plausible results. He confirmed that global temperatures had risen until about 1940. But since then, he reported, temperatures had been falling. There was so much random variation from place to place and from year to year that the reversal to cooling had only now become visible.(14*)
=>Solar variation
Acknowledging that the increasing amount of CO2 in the atmosphere should give a tendency for warming, Mitchell tentatively suggested that smoke from recent volcanic eruptions and perhaps cyclical changes in the Sun might partly account for the reversal. (Later studies confirmed that volcanoes and solar changes probably did have some cooling effect around that time.) But he rightly held that "such theories appear to be insufficient to account for the recent cooling," and he could only conclude that the downturn was "a curious enigma." He suspected the cooling might be part of a natural "rhythm," a cycle lasting 80 years or so.(15) The veteran science correspondent Walter Sullivan was at the meeting, and he reported in the New York Times (January 25 and 30, 1961) that after days of discussion the meteorologists generally agreed on the existence of the cooling trend, but could not agree on a cause for this or any other climate change. "Many schools of thought were represented... and, while the debate remained good-humored, there was energetic dueling with scientific facts." The confused state of climate science was a public embarrassment.
Through the 1960s and into the 1970s, the average global temperature remained relatively cool. Western Europe in particular suffered some of the coldest winters on record. (Studies in later decades found that a quasi-regular long-term weather cycle in the North Atlantic Ocean had moved into a phase in the 1960s that encouraged Arctic winds to move southward there.)(16) People will always give special attention to the weather that they see when they walk out their doors, and what they saw made them doubt that global warming was at hand. Experts who had come to suspect greenhouse warming now began to have doubts. Callendar found the turn worrisome, and contacted climate experts to discuss it.(17) Landsberg returned to his earlier view that the climate was probably showing only transient fluctuations, not a rising trend. While pollution and CO2 might be altering the climate in limited regions, he wrote, "on the global scale natural forces still prevail." He added, however, that "this should not lead to complacency" about the risk of global changes in the distant future.(18)
temperature hump
One source of confusion was increasingly debated. Weather watchers had long recognized that the central parts of cities were distinctly warmer than the surrounding countryside. In urban areas the absorption of solar energy by smog, black roads and roofs, along with direct outpouring of heat from furnaces and other energy sources, created an "urban heat island" effect. This was the most striking of all human modifications of local climates. It could be snowing in the suburbs while raining downtown.(19) Some people pushed ahead to suggest that as human civilization used ever more energy, in a century or so the direct output of heat could be great enough to disturb the entire global climate.(20) If so, that would not happen soon, and for the moment the main consequences were statistical.
Some experts began to ask whether the warming reported for the decades before 1940 had been an illusion. Most temperature measurements came from built-up areas. As the cities grew, so did their local heating, which might have given a spurious impression of global warming.(21*) Callendar and others replied that they were well aware of urban effects, and took them fully into account in their calculations. Mitchell in particular agreed that population growth could explain the "record high" temperatures often reported in American cities — but it could not explain the warming of remote Arctic regions.(22*) Yet the statistical difficulties were so complex that the global warming up to 1940 remained in doubt. Some skeptics continued to argue that the warming was a mere illusion caused by urbanization.
While neither scientists nor the public could be sure in the 1970s whether the world was warming or cooling, people were increasingly inclined to believe that global climate was on the move, and in no small way. The reassuring assumption of a stable "normal" climate was rarely heard now. In the early 1970s, a series of ruinous droughts and other exceptionally bad spells of weather in various parts of the world provoked warnings that world food stocks might run out. Fears increased that somehow humanity was at fault for the bad weather — if we were not causing global warming with greenhouse gases, then perhaps we were cooling the globe with our smoke and smog. Responding to public anxieties, in 1973 the Japan Meteorological Agency sent a questionnaire to meteorological services around the world. They found no consensus. Most agencies reported that they saw no clear climate trend, but several (including the Japanese themselves) noted a recent cooling in many regions. Many experts thought it likely that the world had entered a long-term cool spell.(23)
<=Public opinion
<=Aerosols
Public pressure was urging scientists to declare where the climate was going. But they could not do so without knowing what caused climate changes. Haze in the air from volcanoes might explain some cooling, but not as much as was observed. A few experts worried that pollution from human sources, such as dust from overgrazed lands and haze from factories, was begining to shade and cool the planet's surface. But most experts doubted we were putting out enough sair pollution to seriously affect global climate. A more acceptable explanation was a traditional one: the Earth was responding to long-term fluctuations in the Sun's output of energy.(24)
<=Solar variation
An alternative explanation was found in the "Milankovitch" cycles, tens of thousands of years long, that astronomers calculated for minor variations in the Earth's orbit. These variations brought cyclical changes in the amount of sunlight reaching a given latitude on Earth. In 1966, a leading climate expert analyzed the cycles and predicted that we were starting on the descent into a new ice age.(25) In the early 1970s, a variety of measurements pinned down the nature and timing of the cycles as actually reflected in past climate shifts. Projecting the cycles forward strengthened the prediction. A gradual cooling seemed to be astronomically scheduled over the next few thousand years. Later and better calculations would make that tens of thousands of years, but at the time a few people speculated that we might even see substantial natural cooling within centuries.(26) Unless, that is, something intervened.
<=Climate cycles
It scarcely mattered what the Milankovitch orbital changes might do, wrote Murray Mitchell in 1972, since "man's intervention... would if anything tend to prolong the present interglacial." Human industry would prevent an advance of the ice by blanketing the Earth with CO2. A panel of top experts convened by the National Academy of Sciences in 1975 tentatively agreed with Mitchell. True, in recent years the temperature had been dropping (perhaps as part of some unknown "longer-period climatic oscillation"). And industrial haze might also have a cooling effect, perhaps reinforcing the natural long-term trend toward a new ice age. Nevertheless, they thought CO2 "could conceivably" bring half a degree of warming by the end of the century.(27) The outspoken geochemist and oceanographer Wallace Broecker went farther. He suspected that there was indeed a natural cycle responsible for the cooling in recent decades, perhaps originating in cyclical changes on the Sun. If so, it was only temporarily canceling the greenhouse warming. Within a few decades that would climb past any natural cycle. He asked, "Are we on the brink of a pronounced global warming?"(28*)
Meanwhile in 1975, two New Zealand scientists reported that while the Northern Hemisphere had been cooling over the past thirty years, their own region, and probably other parts of the Southern Hemisphere, had been warming.(29) There were too few weather stations in the vast unvisited southern oceans to be certain, but other studies tended to confirm it. The cooling since around 1940 had been observed mainly in northern latitudes. Perhaps cooling from industrial haze counteracted the greenhouse warming there? After all, the Northern Hemisphere was home to most of the world's industry. It was also home to most of the world's population, and as usual, people had been most impressed by the weather where they lived.(30*)
If there had almost been a consensus in the early 1970s that the entire world was cooling, the consensus now broke down. Science journalists reported that climate scientists were openly divided, and those who expected warming were increasingly numerous. In an attempt to force scientists to agree on a useful answer, in 1977 the U.S. Department of Defense persuaded two dozen of the world's top climate experts to respond to a complicated survey. Their main conclusion was that scientific knowledge was meager and all predictions were unreliable. The panel was nearly equally divided among three opinions: some thought further cooling was likely, others suspected that moderate greenhouse warming would begin fairly soon, and most of the rest expected the climate would stay about the same at least for the next couple of decades. Only a few thought it probable that there would be considerable global warming by the year 2000 (which was what would in fact happen).(31)
Government officials and scientists needed more definite statements on what was happening to the weather. Thousands of stations around the world were turning out daily numbers, but these represented many different standards and degrees of reliability — a disorderly, almost indigestible mess. Around 1980 two groups undertook to work through the numbers in all their grubby details, rejecting sets of uncertain data and tidying up the rest.
One group was in New York, funded by NASA and led by James Hansen. They understood that the work by Mitchell and others mainly described the Northern Hemisphere, since that was where the great majority of reliable observations lay. Sorting through the more limited temperature observations from the other half of the world, they got reasonable averages by applying the same mathematical methods that they had used to get average numbers in their computer models of climate. (After all, Hansen remarked, when he studied other planets he might judge the entire planet by the single station where a probe had landed.) In 1981, the group reported that "the common misconception that the world is cooling is based on Northern Hemisphere experience to 1970." Just around the time that meteorologists had noticed the cooling trend, such as it was, it had apparently reversed. From a low point in the mid 1960s, by 1980 the world had warmed some 0.2°C.(32)
Hansen's group looked into the causes of the fluctuations, and they got a rather good match for the temperature record using volcanic eruptions plus solar variations. Greenhouse warming by CO2 had not been a major factor (at least, not yet). More sophisticated analyses in the 1990s would eventually confirm these findings. From the 1940s to the early 1960s, the Northern Hemisphere had indeed cooled while temperatures had held roughly steady in the south. Some of the change certainly came from natural variations, probably including changes in the Sun's output and a modest spate of volcanic eruptions. More significantly, a sharp increase in haze from pollution such as sulfate aerosol particles had indeed helped to temporarily cool the industrialized Northern Hemisphere. After the 1960s, with pollution growing less rapidly while CO2 continued to accumulate in the air, warming resumed in both hemispheres.(32a)
The temporary northern cooling had been bad luck for climate science. By feeding skepticism about the greenhouse effect, while provoking a few scientists (and rather more journalists) to speculate publicly about the coming of a new ice age, the cool spell gave the field a reputation for fecklessness that it would not soon live down.
Any greenhouse warming had been masked by chance fluctuations in solar activity, by pulses of volcanic aerosols, and by increased haze from pollution. Furthermore, as a few scientists pointed out, the upper layer of the oceans must have been absorbing heat. These effects could only delay atmospheric warming by a few decades. Hansen's group boldly predicted that considering how fast CO2 was accumulating, by the end of the 20th century "carbon dioxide warming should emerge from the noise level of natural climatic variability." Around the same time, a few other scientists using different calculations came to the same conclusion — the warming would show itself clearly sometime around 2000.(33*)
<=The oceans
=>Government
The second important group analyzing global temperatures was the British government's Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia, led by Tom Wigley and Phil Jones. Help in assembling data and funding came from American scientists and agencies. The British results agreed overall with the NASA group's findings — the world was getting warmer. In 1982, East Anglia confirmed that the cooling that began in the 1940s had turned around by the early 1970s. 1981 was the warmest year in a record that stretched back a century.(34*) Returning to old records, in 1986 the group produced the first truly solid and comprehensive global analysis of average surface temperatures (including the vast ocean regions, which most earlier studies had neglected). They found considerable warming from the late 19th century up to 1940, followed by some regional cooling in the Northern Hemisphere but roughly level conditions overall to the mid-1970s. Then the warming had resumed with a vengeance. The warmest three years in the entire 134-year record had all occurred in the 1980s.(35) Convincing confirmation came from Hansen and a collaborator, who analyzed old records using quite different methods from the British, and came up with substantially the same results. It was true: an unprecedented warming was underway, at least 0.5°C in the past century.(36)
=>International
In such publications, the few pages of text and numbers were the visible tip of a prodigious unseen volume of work. Many thousands of people in many countries had spent most of their working lives carefully measuring the weather. Thousands more had devoted themselves to organizing and administering the programs, improving the instruments, standardizing the data, and maintaining the records in archives. In geophysics not much came easily. One simple sentence (like "last year was the warmest year on record") might be the distillation of the labors of a multi-generational global community. And it still had to be interpreted.
<=International
Most experts saw no solid proof that continued warming lay in the future. After all, reliable records covered barely a century and showed large fluctuations (especially the 1940-1970 dip). Couldn't the current trend be just another temporary wobble? Stephen Schneider, one of the scientists least shy about warning of climate dangers, acknowledged that "a greenhouse signal cannot yet be said to be unambiguously detected in the record." Like Hansen and some other scientists, he expected that the signal would emerge clearly around the end of the century, but not earlier.(37)
Global temperature 1880-2006 (Annual surface temperature relative to the1951-1980 mean, based on surface air measurements at meteorological stations and ship and satellite measurements for sea surface temperature. Error bars show 95% confidence level.) Courtesy NASA-GISS.
For latest figures see NASA's site or the UK Hadley Centre's site
=>after88
A new major effort to track global temperature trends, joining the work by groups in New York and East Anglia, was getting underway at NOAA's National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, North Carolina. The Center had been established in 1951 as the National Weather Records Center, with the task of organizing the data that the Weather Bureau and military services had accumulated since the 1940s. The staff had assembled the world's largest collection of historical weather records. A team led by Thomas Karl tediously reviewed the statistics for the world and especially the United States.
Each of the three groups began to issue annual updates, which the press reported prominently. When all the figures were in for 1988, the year proved to be a record-breaker (now the 1980s included the four warmest years since global measurements began). But in the early 1990s, average global temperatures dipped. Most experts figured the cause was the huge 1991 Pinatubo volcanic eruption, whose emissions dimmed sunlight around the world. After rains washed out the volcanic aerosols, the temperature rise resumed. 1995 was the warmest year on record, but 1997 topped it. 1998 beat that in turn by a large margin. Of course these were global averages of trends that varied from one region to another. The citizens of the United States, and in particular residents of the East Coast, had not felt the degree of warming that came in some other parts of the world — if they had, the politics of the matter might have been different. But looking at the world as a whole, in the late 1990s the great majority of experts at last agreed. Yes, a serious warming trend was underway.(38*)
<=>Aerosols
This consensus was sharply attacked by a few scientists. Some pulled out the old argument that the advance of urbanization was biasing temperature readings. In fact, around 1990 meticulous re-analysis of old records had squeezed out the urban heat-island bias to the satisfaction of all but the most stubborn critics. Moreover, long-term warming trends showed up in various kinds of physical "proxy" data measured far from cities. To be sure, in urban areas whatever global warming the greenhouse effect might be causing got a strong addition of heat, so that the combination significantly raised the mortality from heat waves. But the larger global warming trend was no statistical error.(39*)
With the urbanization argument discredited, the skeptics turned to measurements by satellites that monitored the Earth. Since 1979, when the first of these satellites was launched, they had provided the first truly comprehensive set of global temperature data. The instruments did not measure temperatures on the surface, but at middle heights in the atmosphere. At these levels, analysis of the data indicated, there had been no rise of temperature, but instead a slight cooling. The satellites were designed for observing daily weather fluctuations, not the average that represented climate, and it took an extraordinarily complex analysis to get numbers that showed long-term changes. The analysis turned out to have pitfalls. Some argued against the greenhouse skeptics that the satellite data might even show a little warming.(40)
In an attempt to settle the controversy, a panel of the National Academy of Sciences conducted a full-scale review in 1999. The panel concluded that the satellites seemed reliable (balloon measurements, although far less comprehensive, also failed to find warming in mid-atmosphere). The satellite instruments simply were not designed to see the warming that was indeed taking place at the surface. The fact that the satellite measurements indicated that middle layers of the atmosphere had not noticeably warmed was embarrassing to the scientists who were constructing computer models of climate, for their models predicted significant warming there. They suspected the discrepancy could be explained by temporary effects — volcanic eruptions such as Pinatubo, or perhaps the chemical pollution that was depleting the ozone layer. The skeptics persisted. But most scientists concluded that while the computer models were surely imperfect, the satellite data analysis was too ambiguous to pose a serious challenge to the global warming consensus. (This hunch was confirmed in 2004 when a new analysis of the data showed that the mid levels had in fact been warming much as predicted. "This is the answer — I wish we had recognized it ourselves," said the chair of the 1999 Academy survey. Richard Kerr, the veteran climate reporter for Science magazine, declared that "satellite temperatures can no longer be used to portray a feeble greenhouse effect.")(41*)
=>Models (GCMs)
By the late 1990s, many types of evidence showed a general warming at ground level. For example, the Northern Hemisphere spring was coming on average a week earlier than in the 1970s. This was confirmed by such diverse measures as earlier dates for bud-break in European botanical gardens, and a decline of Northern Hemisphere snow cover in the spring as measured in satellite pictures. Turning to a more fundamental indicator, the temperature of the upper layer of the oceans — where nearly all the heat entering the climate system was stored — again a serious rise was found in recent decades, and the greenhouse effect was the only plausible cause.(42*) (Link from below) The 1990s were unquestionably the warmest decade since thermometers came into common use, and the trend was accelerating.
(We see this ourselves, who have lived long enough. My home happens to be near where I grew up five decades ago in New York State. While it's easy to fool yourself on such matters, my personal impressions agree with the statistics on the Northeast that report a long-term trend of less snowfall, an earlier spring and higher temperatures in general. And I have stood on a Canadian glacier that was visibly in retreat.)
Most people now took it for granted that the cause was greenhouse warming, but critics pointed out that other things might be responsible. After all, the greenhouse effect could not have been responsible for much of the warming that had come between the 1890s and 1940, when industrial emissions had still been modest. So announcements that a given year was the warmest on record, when the record had started during the 19th-century cold spell, might not mean as much as people supposed. The warming up to 1940 (and the dip that followed until the 1970s) might have been caused by long-term cycles in ocean currents, or by variations in the Sun's radiation. There were also decades-long fluctuations in the atmosphere-ocean system and in the global pattern of winds, which drove gradual variations in regional weather patterns. These had been suspected since the 1920s, but only started to become clear in the late 1990s. Until these possibilities were sorted out, the cause of the ground-level warming since 1970 would remain controversial.
However, "fingerprints" were found that pointed directly to greenhouse warming. One measure was the difference of temperature between night and day. Tyndall had pointed out more than a century back that basic physics declared that the greenhouse effect would act most effectively at night, as the gases impeded radiation from escaping into space. Statistics did show that it was especially at night that the world was warmer.
No less convincing, Arrhenius at the turn of the century, and everyone since, had calculated that the Arctic would warm more than other parts of the globe. That was largely because less snow and ice would reflect less sunlight back into space. (This effect would not be expected in Antarctica, with its colossal year-round ice cover, and in fact warming was not seen there — except around the coasts and on the long peninsula that projected beyond the ice sheet). Arctic warming was glaringly obvious to scientists as they watched trees take over mountain meadows in Sweden and the Arctic Ocean's ice pack grow ever thinner. Alaskans and Siberians didn't need statistics to tell them the weather was changing when they saw buildings sag as the permafrost that supported them melted.
Ecosystem changes
Pursuing this in a more sophisticated way, computer models predicted that greenhouse gases would cause a particular pattern of temperature change. It was different from what might be caused by other external influences, such as solar variations. The observed geographical pattern of change did in fact bear a rough resemblance to the computers' greenhouse effect maps. "It is likely that this trend is partially due to human activities," researchers concluded, "although many uncertainties remain."(43) Even before it was published, the finding impressed the community of climate scientists. In an important 1995 report, the world's leading experts offered the "fingerprint" as evidence that greenhouse warming was probably underway. The leader of the team at Lawrence Livermore Lab that found the "fingerprint," Benjamin Santer, helped write the summary of this report, and he was deeply hurt when a few skeptics attacked not only the statement but his personal scientific integrity. (By 2006, when the warming had progressed considerably farther and the computer models were much improved, his judgment was confirmed. A thorough analysis concluded that there was scarcely a 5% chance that anything but humans had brought the changes observed in many regions of the world.)(43a)
<=>International
The skeptics, including a minority of climate experts, continued to doubt that humans were causing global warming. Santer's model, like all models, admittedly relied on a lot of guesswork. Or perhaps subtle changes involving the Sun (detectable only with sophisticated instruments), or something else, had somehow triggered changes in cloud cover or the like to mimic the strong night-time and Arctic warming and other features of the greenhouse fingerprint? Yet even if that were true, it just went to show how sensitive the climate must be to delicate shifts in the forces at work in the atmosphere.
A variety of new evidence suggested that the recent warming was exceptional even if one looked back many centuries. Beginning in the 1960s, a few historians and meteorologists had labored to discover variations of climate by digging through historical records of events like freezes and storms. For example, had the disastrous harvest of 1788 helped spark the French Revolution?Scholars found it difficult to derive an accurate picture, let alone quantitative data, from old manuscripts. Increasingly laborious projects hacked away at the problem. (As one example among many, by 2004 an international team had analyzed hundreds of thousands of weather observations recorded in a dozen languages in 18th and 19th century ships' logs. Whaling ships in particular might have the only record for vast stretches of the planet.) Another kind of data came from physical analysis of tree rings, coral reefs, and other ingenious proxy measures, which produced increasingly reliable numbers.(44)
One important example was a uniquely straightforward method, the measurement of old temperatures directly in boreholes. Data from various locations in Alaska, published in 1986, showed that the top 100 meters of permafrost was anomalously warm compared with deeper layers. The only possible cause was a rise of average Arctic air temperature by a few degrees since the last century, with the heat gradually seeping down into the earth.(45) In a burst of enthusiasm during the 1990s, scientists took the temperature of hundreds of deep boreholes in rock layers around the planet. The averages gave a clear signal of a global warming over the last few centuries, accelerating in the 20th century. A still more important example of the far-flung efforts was a series of heroic expeditions that labored high into the thin air of the Andes and even Tibet, hauling drill rigs onto tropical ice caps. The hard-won data showed again that the warming in the last few decades exceeded anything seen for thousands of years before. The ice caps themselves, which had endured since the last ice age, were melting away faster than the scientists could measure them.(46)
<=>Rapid change
By 2005 glaciologists had gathered enough evidence to demonstrate that most of the world's glaciers were in retreat. Glaciers that had existed since the last ice age were melting back, revealing mummies that had been frozen for thousands of years. The changes in the Alps, in Glacier National Park in the United States, and on Mount Kilimanjaro made a particularly strong impression on the public. Scientists were more impressed by surveys showing that tropical glaciers had not been so warm for thousands of years.(47)
Three scientists, combining a variety of measures, put estimated Northern Hemisphere temperatures over the past ten centuries into a graph that showed a sharp turn upward since the start of the industrial revolution. The temperatures of the 1990s soared off the chart. Apparently 1998 had been not just the warmest year of the century, but of the millennium. The graph (shown below) was widely reprinted and made a strong impression. It was dubbed the "hockey stick."
Glacier in Alps 1875/2004
The "hockey stick" graph was prominently featured in a report issued in 2001 by a consensus of experts (the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). It immediately became a powerful tool for people who were trying to raise public awareness of global warming — to the regret of some seasoned climate experts who recognized that, like all science at the point of publication, it was preliminary and uncertain. The dedicated minority who insisted that there was no global warming problem promptly attacked the calculations. For example, in 2003 a few scientists argued that the Medieval Warm Period had been as hot as the 20th century. But other climatologists, looking at data for the entire world, found a scattering of warm and cold periods in different places at different times, not comparable to the recent general warming. Like the temporary cooling of the 1960s, the famous Medieval Warm Period was probably seen only in parts of the Northern Hemisphere.(48*) (For more on global temperatures before the 19th century, see the essay on solar influences.)
While attempts to reconstruct temperatures before the late nineteenth century remained controversial, the warming since then was now as certain a fact as anything in science. A few skeptics continued to seek confirmation of their views in data on air temperatures from weather stations and satellites. But geophysicists noted that the real buildup of heat energy was easily seen, less in the thin and variable atmosphere than in the masses of solid earth sampled by boreholes. Still more telling, layers in ocean basins — which were gradually absorbing most of the heat energy — showed a pattern of recent warming. (See above.) The pattern precisely matched what computer modellers expected from greenhouse gas accumulation and nothing else.
<=Models (GCMs
Contrarians found a chance to question this too, when a paper was published in 2006 reporting that the oceans had cooled (although only in the past few years). However, the authors soon announced that they had made an embarrassing mistake in the way they had compared the data from older and newer instruments. It was just another example of the difficulties of interpreting science amid an uproar of public controversy. Polemicists of every stripe would leap at any report that seemed to support their position, but good scientists took their time. They understood that when you stood at the frontier of what was known, no finding could be trusted until it had been verified and set alongside other findings.(49)
If you compared the upward curve of late-20th-century temperatures with the curves produced by computer models that calculated the effects of the upward climb of greenhouse gases (with adjustments for volcanic eruptions, solar variations and aerosol pollution), the match was close indeed. Temperatures were soaring just as scientists had been predicting, with increasing confidence, for decades. Few could believe any longer that this was mere coincidence. The world's community of experts finally agreed, with little dissent, that it was highly likely that the strong global warming since since the 1970s was in large part the work of humanity. In a 2007 consensus report, they went on to say that human activity had probably contributed to the increased heat waves and many other changes in weather patterns that were already seen to be underway... as predicted.(50)
As of this writing, the warmest year in a record going back to 1861 was still 1998. (In retrospect it was seen that in 1998 a "super El Niño" event, the strongest of the century, had pumped some heat from the Pacific Ocean into the atmosphere.) The year 2005 tied 1998. All the other years since 2000 were also hotter than any previous years on record.
=>Rapid change
Get latest figures from the Hadley Centre for Climate Research.
An influential 1999 reconstruction of Northern Hemisphere temperatures for the past millenium.
(More recent and more complete reconstructions of global temperatures are shown here.)
This shows "proxy" temperatures (for example from tree rings) averaged over the Northern Hemisphere, plus measured temperatures for the past century. The dark solid line shows temperatures averaged over each half-century or so, and the shaded area gives the range of possible averages. An apparent downward trend from a warmer Middle Ages ("Medieval Warm Period," roughly comparable to the 1950s) into a cooler "Little Ice Age" is abruptly interrupted by a steep rise in the 20th century.
In 2004 some teams pointed out that the huge gaps and uncertainties in the pre-19th century data, and the methods used to average the data, could conceal changes of temperature in the past that might have been as large and abrupt as anything seen in modern times. Indeed the way the popular press often displayed the "hockey stick" graphic, as a single, stout, level line hooking up at the end, gave a misleading impression of past stability. A main purpose of the original publication had been to establish the limits of uncertainty, but even if publications did show the broad gray band of shading, it was easy to overlook that it might conceal big climate shifts.
The National Academy of Sciences responded to the controversy by asking a panel to review all the evidence. In 2006 the panel announced that the main original conclusions held. Since the 1980s the world had indeed grown warmer in a way that was without precedent, at least in the past four centuries for which a reliable record could be reconstructed. While earlier data were much less reliable, the panel found it "plausible" that the world was now hotter than at any time in the past millenium. In any case, as so often in this story, no single scientific finding could bring conviction by itself, but only in conjunction with many other lines of evidence. Regardless of how temperature had changed in past centuries, there were strong reasons to believe it was rising rapidly now and would rise still more in the future. For more on the controversy see note 48*.
The Public and Climate
The Carbon Dioxide Greenhouse Effect
Changing Sun, Changing Climate
1. Callendar (1961), p. 1. BACK
2. One early notice was Brooks (1922). BACK
3. Kincer (1934), p. 62; "wie bei allen anderen Klimaschwankugen": Scherhag (1937), p. 263; similarly, "no evidence" of a permanent shift: George E. McEwen of Scripps, Science Newsletter (1940). BACK
4. Callendar (1938). Early attempt: Köppen (1873). On the "World Weather Records" see Somerville et al. (2007), p. 101-102. BACK
5. Landsberg (1946), pp. 297-98. BACK
6. Abarbanel and McCluskey (1950), p. 23, see New York Times, May 30, 1947 and August 7, 1952. BACK
7. Brooks (1949), p. 117. BACK
8. Willett (1949), p. 50. BACK
9. In particular, Lysgaard (1950); this was cited by several authors in Shapley (1953); see also Willett (1950); on the shift of views, see Lamb (1966), 171-72, also ix, 1-2. BACK
10. Landsberg (1958); his analysis found an average 0.8°F rise, more around the Great Lakes. Landsberg (1960). BACK
11. Ahlmann (1952). BACK
12. Crary et al. (1955). BACK
13. Lamb (1959), in Changing Climate (1966) p. 19. BACK
14. Mitchell was spurred by some Scandinavian studies showing a leveling off in the 1950s — the Arctic was usually where trends showed up first. Mitchell (1961); see also Mitchell (1963), "rhythm" p. 180. In his independent calculation, Callendar (1961) found chiefly a temperature rise in the Arctic. For another and similar temperature curve, computed by the Main Geophysical Observatory in Leningrad (and attributed to volcanoes), see Budyko (1969), p. 612. An expert called the works of Mitchell, Callendar (1961) and Budyko "the first reasonably reliable estimates of large scale average temperatures," Wigley et al. (1986), p. 278.One other attempt was Willett (1950). BACK
15. Mitchell (1961), pp. 249, 247. BACK
16. For the North Atlantic Oscillation, see Fagan (2000), esp. pp. 207-08. BACK
17. Lamb (1997), p. 218. BACK
18. Landsberg (1967); quote: Landsberg (1970), p. 1273; on all this, see Mitchell (1991). BACK
19. Brief reviews of observations back to the 19th century include Mitchell (1953); Landsberg (1955); Landsberg (1970). BACK
20. Budyko (1962); others such as Wilson and Matthews (1971) pp. 60, 166-68 agreed the effect could be serious. BACK
21. e.g., Dronia (1967), removing urban heat effects found no net warming since the 19th century. BACK
22. Mitchell (1953); already in 1938 Callendar adjusted for the effect, while admitting that "this is a matter which is open to controversy." Callendar (1938), p. 235. Additionally, the common practice during the 1950s of moving weather stations from downtown locations to airports, outside the "heat island," would give a spurious impression of cooling, but Mitchell and others allowed for that too in their calculations. BACK
23. Lamb (1977), pp. 709-10. BACK
24. Johnsen et al. (1970); Lamb (1977), pp. 529, 549. BACK
25. Emiliani (1966). BACK
26. Hays et al. (1976). BACK
27. Mitchell (1972), p. 445; GARP (1975), pp. 37, 43; they cite a Manabe computer model of 1971 and Mitchell (1973). BACK
28. He also suspected the natural cycle was scheduled to reverse within decades, adding to the rise. Broecker (1975). BACK
29. Salinger and Gunn (1975). BACK
30. Damon and Kunen (1976); a brief argument on turbidity reducing high-latitude temperatures is in Bryson (1973), p. 9; see also Damon and Kunen (1978). BACK
31. National Defense University (1978); also published in Council on Environmental Quality (1980), ch. 17. BACK
32. Hansen et al. (1981), "misconception" p. 961, and Hansen, interview by Weart, Oct. and Nov. 2000, AIP. BACK
32a. For summary and references see Hegerl et al. (2006), p. 673. BACK
33. Specifically, they predicted the effect would rise above the two-sigma level in the 1990s. Hansen et al. (1981), "emerge" p. 957; another scientist who compared temperature trends with a combination of CO2, emissions from volcanic eruptions, and supposed solar cycles, likewise got a good match, and used the cycles to predict that greenhouse warming would swamp other influences after about 2000. Gilliland (1982); Madden and Ramanathan (1980) studied the climate "noise" in comparison with warming predicted by various computer models and concluded the effect "should be detectable anytime from the present to about the year 2000," p. 767. Already in 1956, both Gilbert Plass and Roger Revelle had expected an effect, if any existed, would be apparent by the end of the century. But the editor of Nature, no critic of greenhouse arguments, thought the effect would "become apparent only halfway through the next century" if not later, Maddox (1983). BACK
34. The news for 1981 was added in proof in mid-December. Jones et al. (1982). For funding they thank the U.S. Dept. of Energy and Office of Naval Research. On American help with data, see e-mail interview of Raymond S. Bradley by Ted Feldman, 2000, copy at AIP. BACK
35. Jones et al. (1986); a review is Wigley et al. (1986). BACK
36. Hansen and Lebedeff (1987). BACK
37. Schneider (1992), p. 26; Other examples: MacCracken and Luther (1985); Ramanathan (1988). BACK
38. There was strong U.S. warming 1976-2000, but only in the winter, not the summer warming that would have been noticeable. See IPCC (2001), p. 117; Hansen et al. (2001). BACK
39. Study of the U.S., the only place where sufficiently good records were available, showed a large urban bias which, when removed, left a mild warming from 1900 to the 1930s. Karl and Jones (1989); Jones et al. (1990); irrigation and other changes in land use also contribute, making for a large total effect, according to Kalnay and Cai (2003); another debate was over whether a reported sea-surface temperature rise in the 1980s was due to temporary distortions such as an El Niño event rather than the greenhouse effect, Reynolds et al. (1989); Robock and Strong (1989). BACK
40. Spencer and Christy (1990); Spencer and Christy (1992); Christy et al. (1997) with reply by K.E. Trenberth and J.W. Hurrell gives an idea of the technical problems of analysis; Christy et al. (1998); on Christy see Royte (2001); criticism: Wentz and Schabel (1998); Kerr (1998); for counter-arguments Singer (1999). BACK
41. National Academy of Sciences (2000); see also Santer et al. (2000); more recently, Santer et al. (2002); "claimed inconsistencies between model predictions and satellite tropospheric temperature data (and between the latter and surface data) may be an artifact of data uncertainties," suggested Santer et al. (2003). The why-didn't-I-think-of-that analysis by Fu et al. (2004) showed that the microwave wavelengths supposed to measure the mid-level troposphere had been contaminated by a contribution from the higher stratosphere, which was rapidly cooling (as predicted by models). Quotes: John Wallace, Schiermeier (2004b); Kerr (2004b), p. 806. For further on recent controversies see Stephen Schneider's site, http://stephenschneider.stanford.edu/Climate/Climate_Science/Contrarians.html#Contrarians BACK
42. Buds: Menzel and Fabian (1999); a more general biological indicator was the earlier arrival of the seasonal dip in CO2 as plants took up carbon: Keeling et al. (1996); snow and general discussion: Easterling et al. (2000); oceans: Levitus et al. (2000); oceans got some 30 times as much added heat as the atmosphere: Levitus et al. (2001), updated and improved by Levitus et al. (2005); Hansen et al. (2005) with better models and data found a particularly striking match between greenhouse effect computer model estimates and observed ocean basin warming. BACK
43. Santer et al. (1996), quote p. 39; see Stevens (1999), ch. 13. Tree rings: see Fritts (1976); coral: Weber and Woodhead (1972). BACK
43a. Allen et al. (2006). BACK
44. Le Roy Ladurie (1967); Lamb (1972-77); Fagan (2000). An overview is Somerville et al. (2007), p. 102. BACK
45. Lachenbruch and Marshall (1986). BACK
46. Reviews of boreholes: Pollack and Chapman (1993); Pollack et al. (1998); Pollack and Huang (2000); Pollack and Smerdon (2004). Review of tropical ice: Thompson et al. (1993); see Krajick (2002). BACK
47. Oerlemans (2005). On Kilimanjaro see this note in essay on public opinion. BACK
48. Mann et al. (1999), p. 761, copyright © 1999 American Geophysical Union, reproduced by permission. For a historical overview see Monastersky (2006). The first serious attack published in a peer-reviewed, albeit obscure, journal (Climate Research) was Soon and Baliunas (2003). Asked to respond, Mann and other top climate experts gave strong reasons for regarding the criticism as groundless, indeed based on grossly improper statistical methods, Mann et al. (2003). The chief editor of Climate Research and four other editors resigned, saying the peer-review process had been faulty, see Monastersky (2003). The sloping dashed line in the figure, indicating slight cooling over the past millennium, did rely on data that were sparse and difficult to analyze. See Mann et al. (2004), Jones and Mann (2004).
On Medieval climate see for example Lund et al. (2006). "Coral data for the tropical Pacific... suggest a 'Medieval Cool Period'," according to Mann et al. (2006). The Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age were popularized by Brooks (1922) and Lamb, e.g., Lamb (1995), whose data and attention inevitably focussed on the North Atlantic region.
The possibility of abrupt shifts concealed in the uncertainty band was pointed out by von Storch et al. (2004), but their conclusion that the graph was faulty overall was refuted by Wahl et al. (2006). The likelihood that the smoothing process concealed large temperature shifts was asserted by Moberg et al. (2005), disputed by Mann et al. (2005), and McIntyre and McKitrick (2005). Jones and Mann argued that better data and other lines of research confirmed, at a minimum, the unprecedented nature of the modern rise. "Plausible": National Research Council (2006). Results of a dozen studies over 1300 years are displayed here. For further on recent controversies see the professionally-run blog realclimate.org. BACK
49. Lyman et al (2006); Willis et al., (2007, submitted). BACK
50. IPCC (2001), p. 6. The 2007 report saw even more evidence that it was "highly likely" that human activity was the main cause of warming. Solomon (2007), section TS.4 BACK
copyright © 2003-2007 Spencer Weart & American Institute of Physics


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Dec. 3, 2021, 8:21 a.m. EST
American Express Global Business Travel confirms $5.3 billion merger deal with SPAC Apollo Strategic Growth
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Shares of American Express Co. /zigman2/quotes/203805826/composite AXP -2.82% rose 0.8% in premarket trading Friday, after American Express Global Business Travel (GBT), which is 50% owned by AmEx, confirmed that it will go public through a merger with special-purpose acquisition company (SPAC) Apollo Strategic Growth Capital /zigman2/quotes/222659851/composite APSG +0.20% in a deal that values the combined company at $5.3 billion. The Wall Street Journal had previously reported that a deal was near. The merger will provide $1.2 billion in gross proceeds, including $335 million in private investment in public equity (PIPE) from investors including Zoom Video Communications Inc. /zigman2/quotes/211319643/composite ZM -1.47% , Sabre Corp. /zigman2/quotes/200765742/composite SABR +1.58% and Apollo Global Management Inc. /zigman2/quotes/203829595/composite APO -1.04% . After the deal closes, which is expected to occur in the first half of 2022, the combined company will be named Global Business Travel Group Inc. and is expected to be the world's largest publicly traded business-to-business travel platform. The company is expected to list on the NYSE under the ticker symbol "GBTG." "We expect that becoming a listed company will give us the additional investment capacity to strengthen our commitment to providing unrivaled value, choice and experiences to our customers and partners," said GBT Chief Executive Paul Abbott. American Express' stock has slipped 1.6% over the past three months, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average /zigman2/quotes/210598065/realtime DJIA -0.56% has lost 2.1%.
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Unilever's Bid for Glaxo's Consumer Assets—the Deal That No One Likes

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Rolls-Royce's latest electric self-driving concept is ostentatious and never going to happen
- Jun. 16th 2016 2:56 pm ET
You remember BMW's crazy-looking electric and self-driving concept with flexible fenders unveiled earlier this year? Well apparently the automaker didn't learn its lesson and expanded the platform to its Rolls-Royce brand to unveil a new concept: Rolls-Royce Vision NEXT100.
It looks almost as stupid and ostentatious as BMW's version, but with a touch of RR.
Considering all the current and upcoming disruptions in the auto industry with the advent of electric and self-driving vehicles, it's not difficult to imagine that a few incumbent automakers could go out of business.
When companies like BMW and Rolls-Royce unveil concepts like those NEXT100 cars, I feel like they don't deserve to exist in the electric vehicle era.
They could simply make all-electric versions of the 3 Series or the Phantom and customers would be happy, but instead they insist on making the i3 and now those ridiculous vehicles too-concept to ever make it to market:
Rolls-Royce Vision concept, Goodwood Photo: James Lipman / jameslipman.com
ROLLS-ROYCE VISION NEXT 100 – A GRAND VISION OF THE FUTURE OF LUXURY MOBILITY
In a spectacular event at London's Roundhouse today, the Rolls-Royce VISION NEXT 100 was presented. The car defines the future of luxury mobility. Codenamed 103EX, it is the marque's first ever pure 'Vision Vehicle'.
"Today, Rolls-Royce, the world's leading luxury brand, has defined the future of luxury mobility. The Grand Arrival of the Rolls-Royce VISION NEXT 100 boldly points to a bright future for our marque where our patrons' individual demands for complete and authentic personalisation will be met through an exquisite fusion of technology, design and hallmark Rolls-Royce craftsmanship." Torsten Müller-Ötvös, Chief Executive Officer, Rolls-Royce Motor Cars
"With the Rolls-Royce VISION NEXT 100 we were mindful not to dwell on the past. We wanted to be as innovative as possible and at the same time transcend the design history of the marque". Giles Taylor, Director of Design, Rolls-Royce Motor Cars
The Rolls-Royce VISION NEXT 100 presents an intriguing and aesthetically dynamic vision of the future of luxury mobility – a completely personal, effortless and autonomous Rolls-Royce experience, wrapped in a design that ensures a 'Grand Sanctuary' for its occupants, and a 'Grand Arrival'.
The Rolls-Royce VISION NEXT 100 anticipates the mobility demands of the luxury customer of the future. Brought to life by Rolls-Royce after many months of study and consultation with current patrons of the brand, the car represents their clearly expressed desire for an assurance that the marque's plans for the future of luxury personal mobility will continue to embody the key attributes that have made Rolls-Royce the preferred marque of the most discerning and powerful patrons in the world for over a Century.
With the Rolls-Royce VISION NEXT 100, the brand provides just such an assurance to its valued customers – present and future. It makes a bold and definitive statement of confidence in a future where Rolls-Royce rejects the notion of anonymous, utilitarian and bland future modes of mobility. Through an intimate understanding of its customers' thinking and their demands in the future, Rolls-Royce presents an exciting and highly appealing vision of effortless, autonomous, spacious and beautiful luxury mobility, as personal as each individual customer.
Background This 'Vision Vehicle' is one of four announced by the BMW Group in Munich on 7 March 2016, as it launched its centenary celebrations – THE NEXT 100 YEARS. In addition to being the centenary of the BMW Group, 2016 also represents a seminal moment in the history of Rolls-Royce Motor Cars.
For Rolls-Royce, the end of production of the seventh generation Phantom – considered by aficionados to be "the best car in the world" – represents the completion of the first phase of the Rolls-Royce brand's renaissance under BMW Group custodianship. The success of Phantom, Ghost, Wraith and now Dawn serves as the foundation for a bold new chapter.
This highly successful era for the world's most celebrated luxury brand has been driven by a restless commitment to always looking forward.
In this spirit, the Rolls-Royce VISION NEXT 100 is presented – a truly revolutionary, highly authentic exploration of the future of luxury mobility. It provides a fully authentic look into the potential demands and desires of the wealthy connoisseur of the future.
The Rolls-Royce VISION NEXT 100 – a vision of the future of luxury mobility In creating the Rolls-Royce VISION NEXT 100, the Rolls-Royce Motor Cars design team, led by Director of Design Giles Taylor, asked themselves the question, "How can we recast luxury for the next 100 years?" Within that question the team found that they had to address two further questions: "What will a Rolls-Royce owner expect of his or her Rolls-Royce in the coming decades?" and "How do we at Rolls-Royce today envision how we meet those expectations?". These questions allowed the team to dream of the staggering possibilities for Rolls-Royce's future.
Rolls-Royce intimately understands its patrons and their likely desires and motivations in the future. It understands that true luxury is deeply personal and that the hallmarks of every Rolls-Royce past and present are key to its future. The designers therefore distilled four key tenets that not only underpin the elegant solution that is the Rolls-Royce VISION NEXT 100, but epitomise the future of luxury mobility as a whole:
The Personal Vision
The Effortless Journey
The Grand Sanctuary
The Grand Arrival
In presenting the Rolls-Royce VISION NEXT 100, the marque has rejected the common notion that the future of personal transport is a utilitarian and functional one. Rolls-Royce has stepped bravely into the future to propose a no-compromise, fully autonomous, coachbuilt, personalised vision to those customers who wish for an emotional attachment to their car. This reasoning led them to the first key tenet: The Personal Vision.
The Personal Vision The Rolls-Royce VISION NEXT 100, as presented in London on Thursday 16 June 2016, is but one example of a number of possible personal visions of a Rolls-Royce of the future. Indeed, in an evolution of the Rolls-Royce Bespoke experience of today, the customers' taste will influence the exact design of his or her Rolls-Royce and how it will be configured.
In the spirit of the great coachbuilt cars of the past, Rolls-Royce will create the chassis of the future, hand-built from the most advanced materials and powered by a zero emissions powertrain. Advanced manufacturing technologies will enable customers to involve themselves even more in the design of the shape, size and silhouette of their personal Rolls-Royce vision. The future customer will commission his or her own concept. Rolls‑Royce will design and manufacture this personal vision of each customer and make every Rolls-Royce a unique Bespoke masterpiece.
In short, the Rolls-Royce VISION NEXT 100 utilises envisioned advances in technology to herald the return to authentic coachbuilding.
The Rolls-Royce VISION NEXT 100 is the vision of the Rolls-Royce Motor Cars design team, led by Director of Design Giles Taylor. Their deep understanding of the Rolls-Royce customer of the future and the world in which they will live led them to conceive of a motor car that would serve and augment its patron's lifestyle in every way.
"The Rolls-Royce patron will continue to be a famous figure in the future," explains Taylor. I envision that the Rolls-Royce VISION NEXT 100 will play a key role in these people's lives, guiding and conveying them effortlessly through their life's journey in an exquisite sanctuary where they can reflect in peace ahead of arriving in the grandest style."
The Effortless Journey, the Grand Sanctuary and the Grand Arrival. The next three tenets and hallmarks of the Rolls-Royce VISION NEXT 100.
The Effortless Journey For the 105 years since her creation in 1911, the Spirit of Ecstasy, modelled by sculptor and artist Charles Sykes, on Eleanor Thornton, has silently guided every Rolls-Royce and its owner through the momentous events of their lives. She has stood as an elegant presence at some of history's most notable events.
Today, the 'Voice of Eleanor' inhabits the Rolls-Royce VISION NEXT 100, delivering the dream of an effortless future to her owners. Digitally connected to every aspect of her owners' lives and her surrounding environment, 'Eleanor' becomes their virtual assistant and chauffeur, freeing them of all effort and encumbrance. Imbued with her own artificial intelligence, she works intuitively to advise her owners on itineraries, schedules and options before they leave their residence, reminding about appointments and tasks and making suggestions to ease any anticipated impediments.
She 'brings' the car around when her passengers are ready to travel and, whilst conveying her charges to their next destination, helpfully but discreetly makes suggestions and recommendations, briefing them ahead of their arrival so they are ready to 'perform'. And ever vigilant, 'Eleanor' safely delivers her passengers to their destination, having already predicted the situation and surroundings that await them.
This Effortless Journey is enhanced by the hallmark Rolls-Royce 'magic carpet ride' delivered through a blend of a futuristic, powerful, zero-emission drivetrain and advanced suspension that sees the vehicle almost skim across the road surface. As a V12 combustion engine is most unlikely to exist in the future, one can only surmise how this Rolls-Royce will be powered. A hint may appear in the Grand Sanctuary that is the interior of the Rolls-Royce VISION NEXT 100.
The Grand Sanctuary "Simplicity is the keynote of all true elegance." Coco Chanel Already prepared by 'Eleanor' for the next journey in their event-filled lives, our owners are met by the Rolls-Royce VISION NEXT 100 which awaits their departure. Entering the Grand Sanctuary, our passengers step in unbowed, with consummate grace and dignity, as with the state carriages of old, taking their place on the best seat in the house. Cocooned in the futuristic but handcrafted lounge atmosphere, the coach door and clamshell canopy glide closed to envelop them in uninterrupted silence and luxury.
As one would expect from a Rolls-Royce, the environment of the Grand Sanctuary is crafted from the most precious and contemporary of materials. What is unexpected is the feeling of lightness and simplicity, an effortless elegance.
True to this spirit, the cabin is encircled by the most modern handcrafted fine-line Macassar wood panelling, sweeping across the interior from the coach door, continuing around behind the generous OLED screen and up beside the second passenger to the side of the sofa. This ensures a continuous, beautifully clean and sculptural surface when the screen is extinguished.
The centrepiece of the cabin is the beautiful sofa. The best seat in the house, it is an exquisite, futuristic interpretation of modern furniture design. Clothed in the most opulent fabrics, it gives the impression of floating within the cocoon of the cabin thanks to the artful use of lighting and modern materials.
Inspired by the early regal Rolls-Royces, but also by the ground-breaking work executed on the 2015 Phantom Serenity, the designers used the symbol of ultimate elegance – silk – to clothe the sofa. This most natural and sensual of materials is combined with wool to create a beautifully textured, ivory-coloured luxurious throne upon which our passengers are conveyed, and from which they command.
A final sensual touchpoint within the cabin is the finest one-off deep-pile ivory wool carpet woven especially in London, which our passengers can enjoy as they luxuriate in the ample space created by the removal of the chauffeur.
This sense of space is accentuated as our passengers' view from their seats is uninterrupted by a cockpit or steering wheel which are now superfluous. From their powerful position within the Rolls-Royce VISION NEXT 100, "All the world's a stage, and all the men and women merely players…".
Should they choose to drop their eyes from that world stage for a moment and ask 'Eleanor' for visual cues, she will provide them on the transparent OLED screen that dominates the front wall of the cabin. Here our passengers can view information regarding their journey, their destination and the people they are expecting to meet. Or they may simply choose to retreat from the outside world and be entertained by their favourite show for a while.
Or they may just contemplate the finely crafted analogue clock that hovers in a central position above the screen, which serves both as a reminder of Sir Henry Royce's humble beginnings as an electrical pioneer making electric dynamos, and of time as the ultimate luxury.
"Rolls-Royce design today is the epitome of elegance," Taylor comments, "and this elegance is achieved through simplicity of design under which lies the technology that makes our patrons experience effortless."
The Grand Arrival Certain truths are constant over time. One of these truths is how the powerful have always understood the symbols through which they express their standing. From the lavish chariots of the Roman Emperors to the individually hand built state carriages and cars of Monarchy – such as the coachbuilt Rolls-Royce Phantom IV used during Queen Elizabeth II's coronation – such fine vehicles have been designed to project the importance of the individual inside to those waiting outside.
Waiting with bated breath for a grand arrival, the crowds were never anything but impressed by the stately arrival of their idol. In the future, Rolls-Royce believes that its powerful patrons will wish to continue projecting their power and status in such a manner.
This truth is reflected in the most dramatic aspect of the Rolls-Royce VISION NEXT 100 – its iconic, imposing and futuristic presence which ensures a Grand Arrival for its occupants. Yet whilst it powerfully expresses the future of luxury, it remains constant to the iconic tropes of any true Rolls-Royce: The Spirit of Ecstasy, the Pantheon grille, the long bonnet and the iconic proportions of the entire vehicle.
The very size of the Rolls-Royce VISION NEXT 100 announces the importance of its precious cargo. At 5.9 meters long and 1.6 metres high, it mirrors the perfect dimensions of today's Phantom Extended Wheelbase, whilst the ever constant Spirit of Ecstasy grows in stature, harking back to the regal Phantoms of the 1920s. Hand-crafted by the finest European glassmakers of today, she lights the way to the future of luxury. She is poised atop the re-imagined, yet still iconic, Pantheon grille with the red Double-R badge of an experimental Rolls-Royce.
From these timeless icons of Rolls-Royce design flow the graceful, sweeping lines and expressive surfaces that combine to create a completely futuristic vision of a possible Rolls-Royce exterior.
The polished metal of the grille flows up over the nose, around the base of the Spirit of Ecstasy and along the top of the suspended laser-headlight hoops, before narrowing to shoot down the side of the vehicle's long bonnet, as a dividing line between upper and lower sections of the car. Not stopping at the extremes of the bonnet, this beautiful metal feature creates a beautiful 'horseshoe' as it flows along the top edge of the coach door, describes a parabola up and over the pronounced rear shoulder, encircling the rear of the glass canopy and back down the other flank.
This dividing line accentuates the car's two-tone design scheme. The upper section is entirely comprised of dark glass. It flows fluidly as a daring fastback, creating a glass canopy over the occupants that provides privacy whilst allowing them to contemplate the majesty of the stars in the firmament above as they glide through the night; a window on the world ahead before resolving itself into the bonnet of the car.
The lower section is more dramatic in its design and in what it achieves. Draped in a silk-like 'Crystal Water' colour scheme, its surfacing achieves a lightness that belies the vehicle's size. This is automotive 'Haute Couture'. From whatever angle the Rolls-Royce VISION NEXT 100 is viewed, it seems to float, whether at rest or in motion.
This lightness is achieved through the paring back of this vehicle to the essence of a Rolls-Royce by the Design team, who were freed from their current constraints by the new propulsion and coach-build technologies now available to them. So, for example, where an engine would once have occupied the entire under-bonnet area of the car, a luggage compartment is positioned just aft of the front wheels.
In conceiving this bold vision of the future of luxury, the designers remain steadfast in their commitment to imbuing every element of the Rolls-Royce experience with effortlessness. The luggage compartment therefore opens automatically following arrival and disembarkation, presenting two Grand Tourer cases. In the case of the Rolls-Royce VISION NEXT 100, the cases are fittingly personalised to CS Rolls and FH Royce.
The newly liberated Pantheon grille is now the unencumbered prow of the Rolls-Royce VISION NEXT 100. It is the front of a fully enclosed and smooth-bottomed hull that echoes the form language of 1920's Rolls-Royces, with its 'boat-tail', and within which the entire accommodation area is located.
Constructed from light yet incredibly strong materials, the hull 'floats' above the road surface as it is suspended from the vehicle's wheels via exposed arms and struts.
The 28-inch tall but narrow wheels upon which the car glides are each hand-built from 65 individual pieces of aluminium, and enclosed to deliver the impression of a futuristic catamaran.
Seen from the side, the coachwork delivers hallmark Rolls-Royce privacy to the occupants as it rises gracefully like a fine cloak over the shoulders at the rear of the car. However, this fine drapery flatters to deceive as this rear shoulder line also imparts an air of powerful but graceful forward motion, accentuated by the rising beltline that thrusts upwards in a manner reminiscent of the great pre-war Rolls-Royces.
Whilst this radical new design language also contributes to an effortless, unruffled journey thanks to improved air flow and reduced air resistance, its unquestioned drama delivers a grand arrival.
Rolls-Royce and the art of the Grand Arrival In the era of the stately carriage, and even of the early coachbuilt limousine, one was guaranteed an arrival befitting one's stature. As we have seen, the exterior design and adornment of such conveyances announced one's importance, as did the luxurious appointment of the interior.
However, one other aspect of such vehicles contributed to their suitability for such occasions: their elevated position, suspended as they were on large wheels. Combined with the high ceiling typical of carriage or limousine, one could normally stand before stepping out in a graceful and dignified manner. Modern aerodynamic considerations meant that even modern limousines' rooflines had to be lowered, thereby reducing headroom and requiring one to stoop slightly when alighting from one's vehicle.
Unwilling to accept such stricture and compromise in the future, Giles Taylor and his team set to work to reinstate the Grand Arrival as it should be.
The Grand Arrival of the Rolls-Royce VISION NEXT 100 is first signalled by the Spirit of Ecstasy and Pantheon grille illuminating to cast an ethereal, otherworldly glow from the front of the car. As this vision of the future gracefully sweeps up to its destination, the ethereal glow spreads from the trailing edge of the front wheel arch to the rear of the single coach door, signalling that something momentous is about to happen. As the Rolls-Royce VISION NEXT 100 gracefully comes to a halt, something magnificent occurs.
Hinged on the left of the vehicle, the glass canopy lifts to allow the occupant to stand whilst providing shelter from above and behind. Then, in one effortless movement, the single coach door sweeps open and a step emerges from below the running board. As a final flourish, a red light is projected, carpet-like, from the underside of the step as a welcome.
Thus, as in Botticelli's 'The Birth of Venus', our guest is framed and ready to step gracefully into the limelight and greet their audience.
"The Grand Arrival gesture of the Rolls-Royce VISION NEXT 100 creates a stage for our important passengers as they arrive at their ultimate destination," comments Taylor. "It is an expression of our intrinsic understanding of the possibilities for a true luxury brand and the desires of its customers."
The Personal Vision, the Effortless Journey, the Grand Sanctuary and the Grand Arrival. Rolls-Royce's vision of the next 100 years. Rolls-Royce VISION NEXT 100. A vision of the future of luxury.
Virtual Vision Rolls-Royce has also harnessed the power of the virtual space to bring the experience of the Vision NEXT 100 closer to those unable to personally see the vehicle in London.
The Vision 360 CGI experience immerses the viewer in a journey from Goodwood, the Home of Rolls-Royce, through to vision of the future of luxury. Viewers can enjoy and explore the fine detail of Rolls-Royce 103EX, guided by the voice of the original Spirit of Ecstasy, Eleanor Thornton, on YouTube 360°.
next100 Rolls-Royce electric rolls royce Rolls-Royce Vision NEXT100 Vision NEXT100


In this episode of the Irish Tech News podcast Ronan talks to Duncan Lennox the CEO and co-founder of Qstream. Duncan talks about his background, how Qstream founded at Harvard, what Qstream does. and why Qstream will move from sales into other areas.


text:
Why does Wolverine have metal claws in X-men Apocalypse? [duplicate]
Why does Wolverine still have Adamantium claws in X-Men: Days of Future Past? 8 answers
The latest trailer shows Wolverine's claws at the end, but according to what I'd think is the new continuity after Days of Future Past, he should no longer have adamantium, is there an explanation for this?
x-men-cinematic-universe x-men-days-of-future-past x-men-apocalypse
DarkAjaxDarkAjax
marked as duplicate by Rand al'Thor, Pᴀᴜʟsᴛᴇʀ2, mattiav27, AidanO, Möoz Jul 9 '17 at 22:40
Potentially the same explanation as movies.stackexchange.com/questions/19701/… Even if the explanation is different, the explanation may come in the film itself, so it's possible that there's no way to answer this at this time. – Catija♦ Apr 25 '16 at 21:34
The "new" continuity that exists after Days of Future Past isn't actually clear. We know that the movies X-Men Origins: Wolverine and X-Men 3: The Final Stand are no longer canon, but that doesn't necessarily mean that those events didn't happen in some form or another.
In particular, note that all of the remaining X-Men films are still canon, so all of those things supposedly still happened. That includes, for example, X-Men where Wolverine's adamantium bones are a significant plot element. So obviously, he must have gotten them somewhere. Perhaps we'll learn where in the next movie, or perhaps in the upcoming solo movie.
At the end of Days of Future Past in the past timeline, when Logan's future mind leaves his past body, we see him being retrieved from the river by Mystique, disguised as William Stryker. According to the director, this is supposed to represent Mystique saving mutants from their original fates, but in truth we have no idea what happened to him after that point.
Also, note that the things that happened in X-Men Origins: Wolverine prior to 1973 should also "still have happened", just perhaps not as they were shown in Origins. But Wolverine first met Stryker and joined Weapon X either during or shortly after the Vietnam War, which effectively ended in 1973 as well. It's never explained why Logan isn't in Vietnam during Days of Future Past, unfortunately, but it's not unreasonable to assume that Stryker still has his sights set on Wolverine -- which would explain why Mystique was impersonating Stryker in the end scene -- and he will still end up giving him the adamantium sometime between the 1970s and the 1980s.
MattD
KutuluMikeKutuluMike
33.2k11 gold badge130130 silver badges160160 bronze badges
"It's never explained why Logan isn't in Vietnam" - the setting is that the war has just ended. You see soldiers demobilising near the beginning and much of the action is set at the victory conference. – OrangeDog Feb 23 '17 at 13:52
except in Wolverine I'm pretty sure as soon as the war ended Stryker found him there, not in the US. – KutuluMike Feb 23 '17 at 15:39
There's a reason they retconned Wolverine - it just doesn't make sense. – OrangeDog Feb 23 '17 at 15:41
Because Stryker just implanted the adamantium in him.
In X2 and X-Men Origins we learn all about how Stryker implanted the adamantium in Wolverine at Alkali Lake some time in Wolverine's past. This scene in X-Men: Apocalypse, where Stryker attempts to imprison the other mutants at Alkali Lake represents that event in the altered timeline.
J DoeJ Doe
The Wolverine happened before & was the lead in to Days Of Future Past, so when DOFP started he should have no claws, but he does from the 1st time we see them early on
Magnetto is not a scientist, he doesn't know how to graft metal, only move it... even if in incredible ways. So we can eliminate that theory.(I doubt Wolvie would have wantn't them back anyway. It's extremely painful, & unnatural. They probably hurt more to extract too.)
Nor does it have anything to do with changing the past, cause he had them early on in D.O.F.P.
And, NO, adamantium doesn't regenerant. It's inorganic.
Thus Wolverine probably has adamantium claws, because Bryan Singer was saying "fU" to James Mangold. Taking away his iconic claws is almost a sin to fans. Different directors have different visions. (Even Logan's dogs tags were different in different movies, thus Gavin Hood has different ideas of what time Logan went into the military than Bryan Singer.)
I partially agree with that premise. Lossing one set of claws was OK, but two was retarded. Wolverine is not dumb, so he wouldn't extract his claws knowing the giant-silver samurai-cyborg thing would want that. Doing so is just saying Logan is a clueless idiot, and his actions in all the movies prior prove otherwise.
In a way, they are saying The Wolverine never happened in the same reality as any of the other films. Truth be told it was the worst in a great series. (Losing the claws was not the only issue I have with it either.)
Artemis EntreriArtemis Entreri
Not the answer you're looking for? Browse other questions tagged x-men-cinematic-universe x-men-days-of-future-past x-men-apocalypse .
Why does Wolverine still have Adamantium claws in X-Men: Days of Future Past?
Why do Xavier and Magneto meet Wolverine in "The Wolverine (2013)"?
Why did Logan turn back to that specific time in the future
Does Wolverine still have his adamantium claws after the change in events?
Why don't Wolverine's claws grow back with Adamantium?
Is Logan no longer the Wolverine?
What happened to Magneto after the past changed in X Men Days of Future Past?
Wolverine's DoFP selective amnesia?
Why Mystique's claw got broken into two piece
Wolverine didn't wake up in the future so he didn't change the past?


Abacus, the trusted specialist in accessible bathing solutions, will be launching its integrated BioCote antimicrobial technology at the OT Show – now available in its Gemini 1700 and 2000 baths (Stand J40, NEC, 21-22 November).
Abacus, part of the Gainsborough Healthcare Group, is a proven specialist in safe assisted bathing and regarded by many as an innovator in paediatric care. This dynamic approach has led to the introduction of BioCote within its Gemini baths so that infection and illness can be reduced. The antimicrobial benefits of BioCote have been available within the Gainsborough Specialist Bathing range since 2016 – a Gainsborough Healthcare Group brand operating in the long term care sector.
This silver-ion based technology has been proven to reduce harmful bacteria by up to 98% within care homes and hospitals. It continues to provide 99.9% 24/7 protection against harmful superbugs such as Influenza H1N1, E.coli, Salmonella and antibiotic resistant MRSA. This impressive capability is now supplied as standard in Abacus Gemini baths including the new larger 2000 model, also launching at The OT Show.


Per changes to the IL Condo Act (effective in January), any owner who is more than 60 days delinquent in paying assessments does not need to be counted toward quorum requirements for any meeting called to review and adopt an amendment to the Declaration or By-Laws.
If your association is having difficulty achieving the necessary quorum to vote on an amendment to your governing docs due to absentee or non-participating owners and those owners are more than 60 days delinquent, you may remove their percentages from the total in order to calculate the new quorum requirement.
One unit owns 20% and is 60 days delinquent.
The delinquent owner can still vote at the meeting if they do show up, however. Keep in mind that this change is specifically in regards to voting on an amendment.


text:
Q: Positive Definite Matrix A=YY' Show $A$ is positive definite, and find a matrix $Y$ such that $A=YY'$.
$$A =
\begin{bmatrix}
2 & -1 & 1\\
-1 & 1 & 0\\
1 & 0 & 2
\end{bmatrix}$$
I am able to show that $$xAx^T = (x_1 - x_2)^2 + \left( x_1 + x_3 \right)^2 + x_3^2$$ which is a sum of squares, therefore non-negative; and zero if $x_1 = x_2 = x_3 = 0.$ Thus $A>0$. But I am unable to find $Y$ such that $$A =YY'$$
I need help on how to compute $Y$ explicitly.

A: You're almost there. You got
\begin{align}
\langle Ax,x\rangle &= (x_1 - x_2)^2 + \left( x_1 + x_3 \right)^2 + x_3^2 \\
&= \langle (x_1-x_2,x_1+x_3,x_3),(x_1-x_2,x_1+x_3,x_3)\rangle \\
&= \langle Yx,Yx\rangle \\
&= \langle Y^TYx,x\rangle
\end{align}
where $Y$ is the matrix which acts as $T(x_1,x_2,x_3) := (x_1-x_2,x_1+x_3,x_3)$, i.e.
$$Y = \begin{bmatrix} 1 & -1 & 0 \\ 1 & 0 & 1 \\ 0 & 0 & 1\end{bmatrix}.$$
Direct computation indeed gives $Y^TY = A$.

A: You should first diagonalize $ A$ i.e. write $A$ as $QDQ^T$ where $Q$ is orthogonal and $D$ is a diagonal matrix consisting of the positive eigenvalues of $A$. Then put $Y=Q\sqrt{D}Q^T$ where $\sqrt{D}$ is the diagonal matrix formed by square rooting the diagonal entries of $D$.

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


text:
Josh Blue's Dream Suckers
Home » Josh Blue's Dream Suckers
We're proud to announce the release of our awesome collaboration with our friend Josh Blue.
Introducing: Josh Blue's Dream Suckers, our signature Cherry, Blueberry, Watermelon and Sour Pineapple flavors infused with Josh's favorite strain: Blue Dream – our first strain-specific cannabis edible!
About Comedian Josh Blue
Josh has been using cannabis and our edibles for years to treat his cerebral palsy symptoms. "We've been treating it like it was legal for years anyway, so it didn't make too much of a difference when they legalized it. It's really great though, you don't need a medical card or anything like that. There's dispensaries everywhere and it's bringing in a shitload of tax revenue. I think a lot more states will start legalizing it," he says. Josh says Blue Dream is his go-to strain for medicinal effects.
"Some edibles, they'll creep up on you. It takes a while and you don't know if it's working…but with this, within ten minutes, you're feeling the effects of it." says Blue. Because our suckers are dual acting, meaning both through your mouth (sub-lingual) and through your bloodstream, they're also the perfect edible for medical patients with a quick but long lasting effect.
Mountain High Suckers is extremely proud to be partnered with Denver local Josh Blue over these last couple of years and are proud to be part of the Colorado cannabis community.
Be sure to ask for Josh Blue's Dream suckers by name at your dispensary and pick up one of these great cannabis infused suckers!
Visit Josh Blue Comedy:
http://www.joshbluecomedy.com


England\'s Steven Finn, center, without a cap, celebrates with his teammates after he got the wicket of India\'s MS Dhoni during the one day International cricket match between England and India in Brisbane, Australia on Tuesday.
India's experiments backfired in a big way against England on Tuesday, resulting in a one-sided nine-wicket defeat at Brisbane in Game 3 of the Carlton Mid Tri-series.
MS Dhoni's uncharacteristic decision to bat after winning the toss was exploited to the hilt by Steven Finn and James Anderson on a responsive track at The Gabba, which allowed them to share 9 wickets for 51 runs and wrap India up for just 153.
The lack of application shown by the Indian batsmen is an area of concern as most of the players got in but succumbed to some poor shot selection. Probably the first time in the last two months, we can safely say that India have been bounced out which again is a wakeup call for think-tank.
Shikhar Dhawan again made little impact with the bat as Anderson bowled a beauty to get rid of the left-hander. Ambati Rayadu and Ajinkya Rahane got going with a good partnership but both of them went in quick succession, leaving the visitors in a whole lot of trouble with the score on 67 for 5. Virat Kohli and Suresh Raina did not trouble the scorers much and England by then were all over the Indians.
Finn's maiden five-for in ODIs (5 for 33) and Anderson's 4 for 18 was then backed up by a dominating 88* by opener Ian Bell, who added 127 runs in an unbroken stand for the second wicket with James Taylor (56*). England finished the match with a whopping 22.3 overs remaining to win with a bonus point.
The only positive for India, who experimented by dropping the in-form Rohit Sharma and offspinner R Ashwin, was the batting of allrounder Stuart Binny who used the opportunity presented to him with an impressive 44*. He also took the only England wicket to fall in a spell of 1 for 34 in 7 overs.
Binny added 70 runs with skipper Dhoni (34) but that was never going to be enough to challenge the England side as they got the runs without any hiccups. The Indian bowling again was nothing much to write home about and with England winning with a bonus point, India will have their work cut out in their upcoming matches.


text:
module ProfanityFilter
  class Direct
    def sanitize(string)
      @@words.each do |word|
        string = string.gsub(word, "*" * word.length)
      end

      string
    end
  end
end

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaGithub


text:
The First Amendment and the Media in the Court of Public Opinion
David A. Yalof, University of Connecticut
Kenneth Dautrich, University of Connecticut
$ 64.00 (P)
In light of recent frustrations with the press over its increasingly sensationalistic coverage of the news, no liberty is more vulnerable to the vagaries of the current political climate than is "freedom of the press." By considering public opinion data from two original surveys (1997 and 1999) on free press rights against the backdrop of modern First Amendment jurisprudence, this study offers new and original insights into the nature of popular support for these rights.
Challenges the conventional wisdom that distrust of the media will lead to the erosion of support for free press rights
Makes use of original national survey data collected in 1997 and 1999 concerning press freedoms
Considers popular support for free press rights in the new media age
"This book provides important and timely data on a subject vital to the public opinion and the First Amendment." The Law and Politics Book Review
"Using two large random surveys conducted in 1997 and 1999 with the support of the Freedom Foundation, Yalof and Dautrich explore the attitudes of the general public toward freedom of expression in general and its specific application to the press and other information media....[T]he authors do an excellent job of presenting a theoretical background and context for their findings....Most useful for graduate, research, and professional collections." Choice
"The authors' concern with the approaches that government should and should not develop toward political information takes on unusual importance today...Yalof and Dautrich's intriguing findings provide a valuable step in starting to bring the public into that discussion." Perspectives on Politics
"the authors' work highlights some fascinating data and noteworthy conclusions. Particularly interesting is their analysis of public support for press freedoms across different media." - Bruce W. Sanford
contains: 7 b/w illus. 15 tables
1. Freedom of the press and the power of public opinion
2. Surveying the public on press freedoms
3. What Americans know about the freedom of the press
4. Public support for press freedoms
5. Support for press freedoms across media: comparing print, electronic and the 'new media'
6. Support for press freedoms within a medium: elite, mainstream and tabloid news sources
7. Public opinion, the first amendment and the challenges of the 21st century.
Copyright Information Page (104 KB)
Hearing the Other Side
Deliberative versus Participatory Democracy
Tides of Consent
How Public Opinion Shapes American Politics
Constructing Civil Liberties
Discontinuities in the Development of American Constitutional Law
Studies in American Political Development
Studies in American Political Development (SAPD) publishes scholarship on political change and institutional development…
Canadian Journal of Political Science/Revue canadienne de science politique
This journal provides original research articles, notes, commentaries, review articles, and book reviews in all areas…
Journal of American Studies
Journal of American Studies seeks to critique and interrogate the notion of "America", pursuing this through…
Journal of Race, Ethnicity, and Politics
Click here to view the official JREP blog, Politics of Color.The Journal of Race, Ethnicity, and Politics (JREP)…


text:
def calcularDV(ruc):
    """
        Función que calcula el dígito verificador en Python
    """

    #Convierte el argumento en string
    #luego invierte los valores
    ruc_str = str(ruc)[::-1]

    #variable total que almacena el resultado
    v_total = 0

    basemax = 11

    #el factor de chequeo actual,
    #inicializa en 2
    k = 2

    for i in range(0, len(ruc_str)):
        if k > basemax:
            k = 2
        #multiplicación de cada valor por el factor de chequeo actual(k)
        v_total += int(ruc_str[i]) * k
        #se incrementa el valor de la variable k
        k += 1

    #resto de la división entre el resultado y el valor de la
    #variable basemax
    resto = v_total % basemax

    if resto > 1:
        #si el resto es mayor que uno, entonces el valor de basemax
        #es restado por el resultado de la operación anterior
        return basemax - resto
    else:
        return 0