text:
\section{Introduction}
After the first detection of supermassive black holes at $z\sim6$ \citep{Fan01}, there has been a strong effort to find more sources at high redshift and to study their properties. Further high-$z$ quasi-stellar objects (QSOs) have been found in surveys like the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS)  \citep{Fan01,Carballo06,Cool06,Fan06,Shen07,Inada08}, the Canada-France high-redshift quasar survey \citep{Willott07}, the UKIDSS Large Area Survey \citep{Venemans07} and the Palomar-QUEST survey \citep{Bauer06}. They have been studied by follow-up observations with Chandra \citep{Shemmer06}, the Subaru Telescope \citep{Goto07}, with IR spectroscopy \citep{Juarez07}, near-IR spectroscopy \citep{Jurez08}, mid-IR observations \citep{Stern07, Martinez08}, Swift observations \citep{Sambruna07}, VLBA observations \citep{Momjian07}, the Very Large Array as well as the Very Long Baseline Array \citep{Momjian08}. Some of their host galaxies have also been detected in CO and submm emission \citep{Omont96, Carilli02, Walter04, Weiss07, Riechers08b, Riechers08a}.

These observations furthermore inferred a number of relations between the mass of the central black hole and the properties of their host galaxy. The Magorrian relation connects the velocity dispersion and the mass of the galactic bulge with the black hole mass \citep{Magorrian98, Ferrarese00, Gebhardt00,Graham01,Merritt01,Tremaine02,Haering04,Peterson08,Somerville08}. Quasars with black hole masses of the order $10^9\,M_\odot$ are observed with supersolar metallicities even at $z\sim6$ \citep{Pentericci02}, which is indicated in further studies as well \citep{Freudling03,Maiolino03,Dietrich03a,Dietrich03b}. In the nearby universe, correlations have been found between black hole mass and metallicity \citep{Warner03, Kisaka08}, with a mild slope of $0.38\pm0.07$. This is plausible, as it is generally recognized that the overall mass of a galaxy is correlated with its metallicity \citep{Faber73,Zaritsky94,Jablonka96,Trager00}. In this paper, we will in general assume that the black hole mass is a good indicator for the evolutionary stage of the quasar host galaxy, in particular with respect to the Magorrian relation and the expected metallicity.

In the local universe, active galactic nuclei (AGN) can be studied in much more detail and with higher resolution. An example that has been studied particularly well, in different wavelengths and with high resolution is the AGN NGC~1068. Its direct X-ray emission is shielded through absorption along the line of sight, but there is evidence for reflected X-ray photons that are scattered into the line of sight \citep{Pounds06}. Its molecular disk has been studied through emission from different species, in particular molecular $\mathrm{CO}$\  and fine-structure lines \citep{Schinnerer00, Galliano03, Galliano05, Spinoglio05, Davies07, Davies07b, Poncelet07}. The continuum emission and the distribution of dust has been measured in further studies \citep{Krips06, Mason06, Rhee06, Tomono06, Howell07, Hoenig08}. Such observations in particular allow to probe stellar and gaseous dynamics and the galactic gravitational potential \citep{Gerssen06, Emsellem06, Das07}. Observations with the Green Bank Telescope (GBT) provide evidence for water maser activity \citep{Greenhill95, Greenhill96, Kondratko06}. The inner radio jet can be detected with observations at $7$~mm wavelength \citep{Cotton08}. Given this amount of detail, NGC~1068 thus provides an excellent test case for the inner structure of active galaxies.

The formation of quasars and their supermassive black holes is still one of the unresolved riddles of structure formation and cosmology. The simplest scenarios assume that they have grown from the remnants of the first stars, which are believed to be very massive \citep{Abel02, Bromm04, Glover05}, and whose black hole remnants could grow further by accretion. Such a scenario however has problems, as the remnants of the first stars typically do not end up in the most massive quasars at redshift $z\sim6$ \citep{Trenti08}, and radiative feedback from the stellar progenitor can delay accretion as well \citep{Johnson07, Alvarez08, Milosavljevic08}. In case of Eddington accretion, seed black holes of $\sim10^5\,M_\odot$ are required in order to grow to the observed supermassive black holes at $z\sim6$ \citep{Shapiro05}.

Recently, it has also been discussed whether the first stars in the early universe were powered by dark matter annihilation rather than nuclear fusion \citep{Spolyar08, Iocco08}. Such stars could reach masses of the order $1000\ M_\odot$ \citep{FreeseBodenheimer08, IoccoBressan08} and were considered as possible progenitors for the first supermassive black holes. The evolution of such stars on the main sequence has been calculated by \citet{Taoso08} and \citet{Yoon08}. However, it was shown that such stellar models are highly constrained by the observed reionization optical depth \citep{SchleicherBanerjee08a, SchleicherBanerjee08c}. Also, we note that such seeds would still require super-Eddington accretion to grow to the observed supermassive black holes at $z\sim6$.

Therefore, alternative scenarios have been considered that lead to the formation of massive seed black holes by direct collapse \citep{Eisenstein95, Koushiappas04, Begelman06, Spaans06, Dijkstra08}. However, for such scenarios, the situation is also not entirely clear. For instance, \citet{Lodato06} argue that the gas in such halos should fragment if $\mathrm{H}_2$\  cooling is efficient, and \citet{Omukai08} and \citet{Jappsen08} suggest that a non-zero metallicity will lead to fragmentation as well. Simulations by \citet{Clark08} support these conjectures.

The black hole population at high redshift is further constrained by observations of the soft X-ray background. These constraints indicate that the population of high-redshift quasars was not sufficient to reionize the universe \citep{Dijkstra04}, and suggest an upper limit to the black hole density of $\sim4\times10^4\,M_\odot\,\mathrm{Mpc}^{-3}$ \citep{Salvaterra05}. The latter depends in particular on the adopted spectra and luminosity of the black hole, as well as their duty cycles, and it has been argued that larger black hole populations are conceivable as well \citep{Zaroubi07}. It is therefore important to probe the number density of black holes and AGN activity as a function of redshift by direct observations.

In this work, we explore the possibility of searching for the first quasars in the universe with ALMA \footnote{http://www.eso.org/sci/facilities/alma/index.html} and JWST \footnote{http://www.stsci.edu/jwst/overview/}. ALMA is particularly relevant in light of recent predictions on the observability of the first miniquasars \citep{Spaans08} and high-redshift Lyman $\alpha$ galaxies \citep{Finkelstein08}, while it is one of the main scientific goals of JWST to find the first galaxies at high redshift. In \S \ref{population}, we introduce a model for the black hole population which is based on observed properties and correlations between black holes and their host galaxy. In \S \ref{constraint}, we discuss how the number of active black holes is constrained by the unresolved X-ray background. In \S \ref{ngc1068}, we analyze the observed properties of NGC~1068 and derive further predictions for very high-$J$~$\mathrm{CO}$\  lines. In \S \ref{observables}, we use these information to derive the relevant observables for ALMA and JWST and predict the number of detectable sources as a function of redshift. Further discussion and outlook is provided in \S \ref{discussion}.

\section{The high-redshift black hole population}\label{population}
\begin{figure}[t]
\includegraphics[scale=0.45]{f1.eps}
\caption{The co-moving number density of halos that contain black holes as a function of black hole mass for different redshifts.}
\label{fig:population}
\end{figure}

We model the population of high-redshift black holes in the framework of the Sheth-Tormen formalism \citep{Sheth01}, a modified version of the \citet{Press74} method. Both prescriptions agree reasonably well with simulations of high-redshift structure formation \citep{Jang01, Heitmann06, Reed07, Greif08}. This formalism predicts the comoving number density of halos with different masses, $dn/d\log M_h$, where $M_h$ is the halo mass. We calculate the virial radius $r_{\sm{vir}}$ assuming a mean overdensity of $178$ and estimate the velocity dispersion $\sigma$ as the Kepler velocity at this radius. For simple profiles such as the singular isothermal sphere, the velocity dispersion is independent of position, while in more realistic scenarios, there will be some scatter around this value. We adopt the correlation between black hole mass $M_{\sm{BH}}$ and velocity dispersion $\sigma$ given by \citet{Tremaine02} as
\begin{equation}
\log\left(\frac{M_{\sm{BH}}}{M_\odot} \right) = \alpha+\beta \log\left(\frac{\sigma}{\sigma_0} \right),
\end{equation}
with $\alpha=8.13\pm0.06$, $\beta=4.02\pm0.32$ and $\sigma_0=200$~km/s. The expected black hole population is then given in Fig.~\ref{fig:population}. This shows that a significant number of potential sources is available down to $z\sim12$, which however drops significantly towards higher redshifts.

If black holes accrete efficiently and release the gravitational energy as radiation, the luminosity can be estimated with the Eddington luminosity as
\begin{equation}
L_{\sm{Edd}}=3.3\times10^4 \left(\frac{M_{\sm{BH}}}{M_\odot} \right) L_\odot .
\end{equation}
On the other hand, accretion may also be limited by gas dynamics, and the Bondi solution for spherical symmetric accretion shows that the actual accretion rate may be considerably smaller if the gas is heated by radiative feedback or supernova explosions. As discussed by \citet{Jolley08}, part of the released gravitational energy may go into mechanical feedback like jets and outflows rather than radiation. This is consistent with measurements of the black hole mass - luminosity relation by \citet{Kaspi00}, which indicate that typical luminosities are in fact sub-Eddington. They derive two correlations between black hole mass and luminosity, depending on whether the velocity estimate is obtained taking the mean (case A) or the root mean square~(rms, case B). They use the parametrization
\begin{equation}
M_{\sm{BH}}=a\times10^7\times \left(\frac{\lambda L_\lambda (510\ nm) }{10^{44}\ \mathrm{erg}\ \mathrm{s}^{-1}} \right)^b\ M_\odot.
\end{equation}
In case A, they obtain $a_A=5.71^{+0.46}_{-0.37}$ and $b_A=0.545\pm0.036$, in case B, they find $a_B=5.75^{+0.39}_{-0.36}$ and $b_B=0.402\pm0.034$. Like \citet{Kaspi00}, we adopt a factor of $9$ to correct for the bolometric luminosity. In both cases, the luminosity scales roughly with $M_{\sm{BH}}^2$ and most quasars are sub-Eddington. As shown in the next section, the X-ray background constraints on the black hole population are much less significant with this mass-luminosity relation.

\section{Constraining the relative number of active black holes}\label{constraint}
The population of high-redshift black holes is constrained by the unresolved soft X-ray background (SXRB). The total SXRB in the energy range $0.5-2$~keV is $(7.53\pm0.35)\times10^{-12}$~erg~cm$^{-2}$~s$^{-1}$~deg$^{-2}$, with $94^{+6}_{-7}$ per cent made up of discrete X-ray sources \citep{Moretti03}. The unresolved fraction of the SXRB was re-analyzed by \citet{Dijkstra04}, providing a mean and maximum intensity of the unresolved SXRB flux of $0.35\times10^{-12}$ and $1.23\times10^{-12}$~erg~cm$^{-2}$~s$^{-1}$~deg$^{-2}$, respectively. This corresponds to specific fluxes per energy interval of the order $0.7-2.5$~keV~cm$^{-2}$~s$^{-1}$~sr$^{-1}$~keV$^{-1}$ at $1$~keV, which is the upper limit for possible contributions from the early universe.

\begin{figure}

\includegraphics[scale=0.4]{f2.eps}
\caption{The expected contribution to the SXRB in keV~cm$^{-2}$~s$^{-1}$~sr$^{-1}$~keV$^{-1}$ as a function of the active quasar fraction $f_a$ and the spectral parameter $\Phi$, under different assumptions for the typical black hole luminosity. For a spectrum with the same amount of flux in the MCD and the PL component, we expect $\Phi\lesssim0.5$. Upper left: Eddington luminosity, black holes in the mass range from $1$ to $10^9\ M_\odot$. Upper right: Eddington luminosity, black hole masses in the range from $10^5$ to $10^9\ M_\odot$. Lower left: Case A black hole - luminosity relation \citep{Kaspi00}. Lower right: Case B black hole - luminosity relation \citep{Kaspi00}. For the latter models, results are independent of the lower mass cutoff due to the scaling of the employed luminosity relations with mass. In general, we find that models assuming Eddington luminosity find significantly stronger constraints than models following the observed luminosity relation. This implies that the fraction of active quasars may be significantly higher than for Eddington luminosities.    }
\label{fig:constraints}

\end{figure}

\subsection{Assumptions}
For the X-ray sources, we consider spectra of similar type as \citet{Salvaterra05}, consisting of a soft multicolor disk (MCD) component and a power-law (PL) component at high energies \citep{Mitsuda84, Miller03, Miller04}. The MCD component peaks at frequencies
\begin{equation}
h\nu\sim 0.095\ \mathrm{keV} \left(\frac{M_{\sm{BH}}}{10^6\ M_\odot} \right)^{-1/4}
\end{equation}
and the spectral energy distribution (SED) scales with $\nu^{1/3}$ for smaller frequencies and rolls off exponentially for larger frequencies. The MCD component of high-redshift quasars is therefore redshifted to even smaller frequencies and cannot contribute to the unresolved SXRB. For the PL SED, we assume a scaling according to $\nu^{-\alpha}$, with $\alpha\sim1$. It is the PL component of these sources which is redshifted into the SXRB. The spectral range in which these sources emit is not completely clear. Here, we adopt a spectral range from $1$~eV to $500$~keV. The ratio $r$ of the flux in the MCD component to the flux in the PL component is expected to be roughly of order $1$ \citep{Mitsuda84, Miller03}, but we treat it as a free parameter in this analysis. A further fraction $f_s$ of the radiation may be shielded by the inner torus. This fraction is geometry dependent, but may be of the order of $20-30\%$. The amount of luminosity that can potentially contribute to the SXRB thus scales with the effective parameter $\Phi=(1-f_s)/(1+r)$. For typical spectra where the amount of flux in the MCD and the PL component is comparable, we therefore expect $\Phi \lesssim 0.5$. We further introduce the parameter $f_a$, which describes the fraction of active quasars at a given redshift.

\subsection{Formalism}
\begin{figure}[t]
\includegraphics[scale=0.3]{f3.eps}
\caption{An illustration for the inner structure of NGC~1068. It shows the central black hole with the inner accretion disk radiating in X-rays, as well as the inner torus embedded in a large molecular disk consisting of individual high-density clouds. The jet is sketched as well. The torus is expexted to have a size of $\sim3$~pc, while the molecular disk extends out to $\sim100$~pc. In the XDR model considered here, we focus on those clouds that are unshielded by the torus and where emission is stimulated by the impinging X-ray flux.}
\label{fig:illu}
\end{figure}

The contribution to the background intensity is then given from an integration along the line of sight as
\begin{equation}
I_\nu=\frac{c}{4\pi}\int \frac{dz P_\nu ((1+z)\nu),z}{H(z)(1+z)^4},
\end{equation}
where $\nu$ is the observed frequency, $H(z)$ the expansion rate at redshift $z$ and $P_\nu((1+z)\nu,z)$ the mean proper volume emissivity for photons with frequency $\nu(1+z)$ at redshift $z$ (in units of energy per unit time, unit frequency and unit proper volume). To evaluate that, we first calculate the number of photons $N_{\tilde{\nu}}$ of frequency $\tilde{\nu}$ emitted at redshift $z$ within $1$~Mpc$^3$~(comoving), which is given as
\begin{equation}
N_{\sm{tot}, \tilde{\nu}}=\int_{M_{\sm{min}}}^{M_{\sm{max}}} \frac{dn}{d\log M_h} f_a N(\tilde{\nu},M_{\sm{BH}}) d\log M_h,
\end{equation}
where $M_{\sm{min}}$ and $M_{\sm{max}}$ are the (redshift-dependent) minimum and maximum halo masses that yield black hole masses in a reasonable range which we specify below in more detail, and $N(\tilde{\nu},M_{\sm{BH}})$ is the number of photons of frequency $\tilde{\nu}$ emitted per second by a black hole of mass $M_{\sm{BH}}$. The number of baryons $N_b$ in $1$~Mpc$^3$~(comoving) is
\begin{equation}
N_b=\frac{\rho_b\,1\,\mathrm{Mpc}^3}{1.2 m_p},
\end{equation}
where $\rho_b$ is the comoving baryon density and $m_p$ the proton mass. The emissivity is then
\begin{equation}
P_\nu=\frac{h\tilde{\nu} N_{\sm{tot}, \tilde{\nu}} }{N_b}\frac{ \rho_b (1+z)^3}{1.2 m_p}.
\end{equation}

\subsection{Constraints}

With the method described above, we calculate constraints for the fraction of active quasars $f_a$ as well as the spectral parameter $\Phi$ for four different scenarios (see Fig. \ref{fig:constraints}). The first scenario assumes that black holes populate the mass range from $1$ to $10^9\ M_\odot$ and radiate at Eddington luminosity. This may be the case if a sufficient number of black holes is provided as remnants from the first stars. In this case, one finds rather tight constraints that do not allow high values for $f_a$ and $\Phi$ simultaneously.

However, as the initial mass function (IMF) in the early universe is not yet understood, it is unclear whether such stellar mass black holes are present in large numbers. As discussed in the introduction, supermassive black holes may in fact have more massive progenitors that form through direct gas collapse in larger halos. We assume here a lower cutoff for the black hole mass of $\sim10^5\ M_\odot$. That allows for an increase in the fraction of active quasars by a factor of a few.

Finally, as discussed in \S \ref{population}, the Eddington luminosity is only an upper limit to the actual black hole luminosity. It depends on the gas supply as well as the amount of energy going into mechanical feedback. To address alternative scenarios as well, we calculate the constraints assuming the black hole mass - luminosity relations given by \citet{Kaspi00}. As a consequence, a higher fraction of active quasars is consistent with the observed background for parameters $\Phi$ between $0.1-1$. Due to the steepness of the luminosity function, the results are independent of the adopted lower cutoff for the black hole mass. In case A, $f_a\sim50\%$ seems feasible for $\Phi\sim0.2$, while in case B, $f_a\sim50\%$ requires $\Phi\sim0.1$. For a spectrum with equal amount of flux in the MCD and the PL component ($\Phi\lesssim0.5$), active quasar fractions of $10-30\%$ can be adopted.

With respect to the observational search for the first quasars at high redshift, the two latter scenarios are particularly favorable, as they are consistent with a considerably larger number of active quasars in the early universe. The main caveat here is the question whether the observed relation between black hole mass and luminosity can indeed be used at these early times. So far quasars have always appeared as highly evolved systems at any redshift observed, which may imply that this relation indeed holds. In any case, the first scenario assuming Eddington luminosity provides a firm lower limit of about $1\%$ for the fraction of active quasars if $\Phi$ is assumed to be of order $1$.

\section{NGC~1068: A case study}\label{ngc1068}

\begin{figure}[p]
\includegraphics[scale=0.55]{f4.eps}
\caption{A model for the X-ray chemistry in NGC~1068. The adopted flux impinging on the cloud is $170$~erg~s$^{-1}$~cm$^{-2}$. The adopted density is $10^5\ $cm$^{-3}$. Top: The abundances of different species as a function of column density. Middle: The low-$J$~$\mathrm{CO}$\  lines as a function of column density. Bottom: The high-$J$~$\mathrm{CO}$\  lines as a function of column density. }
\label{fig:ngc1068}
\end{figure}
In this section, we review known observational properties of NGC~1068, derive predictions that will be relevant for high-redshift observations with ALMA and JWST and generalize them to objects with different X-ray fluxes.

\subsection{Observed properties}\label{observed}

As discussed in the Introduction, the nearby AGN NGC~1068, a Seyfert~$2$~galaxy at a distance of $14.4$~Mpc, has been studied in great detail and with high resolution. As the wealth of available data could easily give rise to a review of its own, we restrict the discussion here to only those properties that will be relevant with respect to observations at high-redshift with ALMA and JWST.

The mass of the central black hole has been estimated from VLBI water maser observations to be $\sim10^7\ M_\odot$ with a luminosity of $50\%$ of the Eddington limit \citep{Greenhill96}. Even though the X-ray emission from the central black hole is shielded by an absorber on the line of sight, X-rays that are scattered into the line of sight have been detected unambiguously \citep{Pounds06}. Observations of rotational $\mathrm{CO}$\  lines and the $\mathrm{H}_2$\ ~$2.12\ \mathrm{\mu}$m line indicated an inner structure consisting of an extended molecular disk and a toroidal structure which completely absorbs the X-ray emission along the line of sight. It is slightly tilted with respect to the disk \citep{Galliano03}. The $\mathrm{H}_2$\  emission map of \citet{Galliano02} shows a bright knot $70$~pc in the east of the central engine, with a size of $\sim35$~pc. The knot is also visible in $\mathrm{CO}$\  \citep{Galliano03}. As they show, the observed fluxes can be explained with the X-ray excitation model of \citet{Maloney96} when the following parametrization is adopted:
\begin{itemize}
\item The central engine is a power-law X-ray source with spectral slope $\alpha=-0.7$ and luminosity of $10^{44}$~erg~s$^{-1}$ in the $1-100$~keV range.
\item We observe emission from molecular clouds with a density of $10^5$~cm$^{-3}$, a column of $10^{22}$~cm$^{-2}$ at a distance of $70$~pc and solar metallicity.
\end{itemize}
This region of bright emission consists therefore of a number of small clouds with densities of $10^5$~cm$^{-3}$, which in total cover a significant part of the telescope beam. In addition, there may be further contributions from gas at lower densities, which emits less efficiently, but fills a larger volume. For the X-ray luminosity of NGC~1068, one cannot expect $\mathrm{CO}$\  line emission much closer to the black hole, as the higher X-ray flux then would destroy $\mathrm{CO}$\  very effectively, unless it is shielded by some absorber. The black hole luminosity thus regulates the distance to the central source at which the $\mathrm{CO}$\  emission peaks. This situation is sketched in Fig.~\ref{fig:illu}.

Further studies also measured the fluxes from other species, including the relevant fine-structure lines. We refer here in particular to the data of \citet{Spinoglio05}, which are used in \S \ref{ALMA} to calculate the expected fluxes from higher redshift. The situation is similar for the observed amount of continuum emission. Here we use the data of \citet{Brauher08}.

As JWST will see the stellar light from high-redshift galaxies, the star formation rate is a highly relevant quantity for estimates regarding the expected flux. Indeed, observations of NGC~1068 find a starburst component from a circumnuclear ring of $\sim3$~kpc in size, with a stellar mass of $\sim10^6\ M_\odot$ and an age of $5$~Myr \citep{Spinoglio05}. On scales of a few hundred parsecs, one finds star formation rates of a few times $10\ M_\odot$~yr$^{-1}$~kpc$^{-2}$, which can reach $\sim100\ M_\odot$~yr$^{-1}$~kpc$^{-2}$ in the inner few ten parsecs \citep{Davies07}. This is close to the star formation rate in Eddington-limited starbursts as suggested by \citet{Thompson05}. The total star formation rate of NGC~1068 therefore is $\sim10\ M_\odot\ $yr$^{-1}$.

\subsection{Predicted properties}\label{predicted}
High redshift and high spatial resolution ($\sim 0.01''$) observations with ALMA will allow us to observe redshifted high-$J$ CO lines, $J>9$ (see \S \ref{ALMA} for details). For local sources, these lines are difficult to detect from the ground. They provide important diagnostics for the power and impact of the accreting black hole \citep{Spaans08}. We use the X-ray dominated region (XDR) code of \citet{Meijerink05}, an improved version of the above mentioned XDR-model of \citet{Maloney96}, and solve the 1D-radiation transport equation for the $\mathrm{CO}$\  fluxes through the inferred cloud complex. This code has been used to calculate detailed diagnostics for XDR observations \citep{Meijerink07} and was successfully applied to infrared and (sub-)millimeter observations of luminous infrared galaxies \citep{Loenen08}.

\begin{figure}[p]
\includegraphics[scale=0.55]{f5.eps}
\caption{The X-ray chemistry in a system with X-ray flux of $1$~erg~s$^{-1}$~cm$^{-2}$ impinging on the cloud. The adopted density is $10^5\ $cm$^{-3}$. Top: The abundances of different species as a function of column density. Middle: The low-$J$~$\mathrm{CO}$\  lines as a function of column density. Bottom: The high-$J$~$\mathrm{CO}$\  lines as a function of column density. }
\label{fig:ngc1}
\end{figure}

\begin{figure}[p]
\includegraphics[scale=0.55]{f6.eps}
\caption{The X-ray chemistry in a system with X-ray flux of $10$~erg~s$^{-1}$~cm$^{-2}$ impinging on the cloud. The adopted density is $10^5\ $cm$^{-3}$. Top: The abundances of different species as a function of column density. Middle: The low-$J$~$\mathrm{CO}$\  lines as a function of column density. Bottom: The high-$J$~$\mathrm{CO}$\  lines as a function of column density. }
\label{fig:ngc10}
\end{figure}

We first calculate the chemical abundances and the expected $\mathrm{CO}$\  line intensities for the model used by \citet{Galliano03} as discussed in \S~\ref{observed}. While they adopted a column density of $10^{22}\ \mathrm{cm}^{-2}$, we are extending the calculation to larger columns of $10^{24}\ \mathrm{cm}^{-2}$, corresponding to the typical column needed to absorb $5$~keV photons. This allows us to generalize these results to systems with larger column densities and Compton thick material. The results of the calculations are shown in Fig.~\ref{fig:ngc1068}. We note that the fiducial gas density of $10^5$~cm$^{-3}$ has little impact on our results, unless it drops to below $10^{4.5}$~cm$^{-3}$. Above this limit, the XDR properties are determined by the ratio of X-ray flux to gas density. In addition, we have checked that even if the entire disk of $\sim100$~pc was at low densities of $10^3$~cm$^{-3}$, the high-$J$~$\mathrm{CO}$\  line intensities would still be $\sim10^{-5}$~erg~s$^{-1}$~cm$^{-2}$~sr$^{-1}$, as the low-density gas extends over much larger spatial scales and thus reaches larger or comparable column densities.

The strong X-ray flux of $\sim170$~erg~s$^{-1}$~cm$^{-2}$ in NGC~1068 suffices to make the gas essentially atomic and leads to high temperatures of $\sim3000$~K, as well as relatively low $\mathrm{CO}$\  abundances of the order $10^{-7}$. However, the $\mathrm{CO}$\  intensity is high, due to the strong excitation in the hot gas. For a column of $10^{22}\ \mathrm{cm}^{-2}$, our results appear of the same magnitude as in the model of \citet{Galliano03}. For larger columns, the temperature gradually decreases, the gas becomes molecular and $\mathrm{CO}$\  gets more abundant, and we find intensities of the order $10^{-2}$~erg~s$^{-1}$~cm$^{-2}$~sr$^{-1}$ in the high-$J$~$\mathrm{CO}$\  lines.

We need to account for the fact that many systems may accrete considerably below the Eddington limit as discussed above. Also, we want to consider quasars with somewhat smaller black hole masses of the order $10^6\ M_\odot$, as their number density is larger by an order of magnitude (see Fig.~\ref{fig:population}). Therefore, we calculate models with less X-ray flux as well. An extreme case with $\sim1$~erg~s$^{-1}$~cm$^{-2}$ is shown in Fig.~\ref{fig:ngc1}. In this model, we find lower temperatures of $\sim70$~K, a large fraction of molecular gas and $\mathrm{CO}$\  abundances of the order $10^{-4}$. While the lower temperature tends to decrease the $\mathrm{CO}$\  line intensities, they are still enhanced due to the larger $\mathrm{CO}$\  abundance. Above a column of $10^{23}\ \mathrm{cm}^{-2}$, the intensities increase rather slowly as the lines become optically thick.

As an intermediate scenario, we consider an X-ray flux of $\sim10$~erg~s$^{-1}$~cm$^{-2}$ (see Fig.~\ref{fig:ngc10}). In this model, the temperature is increased to $\sim100$~K. The $\mathrm{CO}$\  abundance is initially of the order $3\times10^{-6}$ and increases to $\sim10^{-4}$ for larger columns. For columns less than $10^{22}\ \mathrm{cm}^{-2}$, the intensities are thus reduced by about an order of magnitude compared to the previous case, while they are increased by an order of magnitude for larger columns.

From an observational perspective, it is highly interesting that even X-ray fluxes of $\sim1$~erg~s$^{-1}$~cm$^{-3}$ lead to significant $\mathrm{CO}$\  line intensities. At a column of $10^{22}\ \mathrm{cm}^{-2}$, the high-$J$~$\mathrm{CO}$\  line intensity in all models was of the order $10^{-4}-10^{-3}$~erg~s$^{-1}$~cm$^{-2}$~sr$^{-1}$, and it may increase up to values of $10^{-3}-10^{-1}$~erg~s$^{-1}$~cm$^{-2}$~sr$^{-1}$ for columns of the order $10^{24}\ \mathrm{cm}^{-2}$.

\section{High-redshift observations with ALMA and JWST}\label{observables}

\begin{table}[htdp]
\begin{center}
\begin{tabular}{ccccc}
freq. [GHz]  & $\theta{\sm{res}}$~[''] & $S_l$~[mJy] & $S_c$~[mJy] & $\theta_{\sm{beam}}$~[''] \\
\hline
 $84-116$  & $0.034$ & $8.9$ & $0.06$ & $56$ \\
 $125-169$ & $0.023$ & $9.1$ & $0.07$& $48$ \\
 $163-211$ & $0.018$ & $150$ & $1.3$& $35$ \\
 $211-275$ & $0.014$ & $13$ & $0.14$& $27$ \\
 $275-373$ & $0.011$ & $21$ & $0.25$& $18$ \\
 $385-500$ & $0.008$ & $63$ & $0.86$& $12$ \\
 $602-720$ & $0.005$ & $80$ & $1.3$& $9$ \\
\hline
\end{tabular}
\end{center}
\caption{Frequency range, angular resolution $\theta_{\sm{res}}$, line sensitivity $S_l$ and continuum sensitivity $S_c$ in mJy for one hour of integration time and primary beam size $\theta_{\sm{beam}}$ for bands $3-9$ of ALMA. 3 more bands might be added in the future, band $1$ around $40$~GHz, band $2$ around $80$~GHz and band $10$ around $920$~GHz, which will have similar properties as the neighbouring bands.}
\label{tab:ALMA}
\end{table}%

Future observations with ALMA and JWST provide a new opportunity to find the first quasars at high redshift. Their unprecedented sensitivity permits observations of less luminous sources and at higher redshift and we can therefore find quasars with black hole masses of $10^6-10^7\ M_\odot$, which may be the progenitors of the known sources with $\sim10^9\ M_\odot$ black holes. In addition, their high spatial and spectral resolution can provide detailed information about the host galaxies of those bright high-redshift quasars that we already know. In this section, we predict the main observables for ALMA and JWST, provide estimates for the number of high-redshift sources and discuss also the importance of follow-up observations on known high-redshift quasars.

\subsection{Observables for ALMA}\label{ALMA}
In the frequency range of ALMA, it is possible to observe redshifted emission from high-$J$~$\mathrm{CO}$\  lines and many fine-structure lines. The main properties of ALMA are summarized in Table~\ref{tab:ALMA}. For one hour of integration time, ALMA can detect line fluxes of $\sim10$~mJy at $3\sigma$. This is particularly interesting with respect to the high-$J$~$\mathrm{CO}$\  intensities calculated in \S~\ref{predicted}. At redshift $z=8$, a resolution of $\sim0.01$'' corresponds to a physical scale of $\sim49$~pc. A source of such size would fill a solid angle of $\sim7\times10^{-15}$~sr. With a fiducial velocity dispersion of $20$~km/s and a line intensity of $10^{-3}$~erg~s$^{-1}$~cm$^{-2}$~sr$^{-1}$, this corresponds to a flux of $\sim30$~mJy, which is therefore detectable in less than one hour. In the calculations above, we found lower intensities only for models with very high X-ray fluxes and small columns (see Fig.'s~\ref{fig:ngc1068}~to~\ref{fig:ngc10}). Even in this case, we still expect a significant flux of $\sim3$~mJy.

\begin{table}[htdp]
\begin{center}
\begin{tabular}{llll}
Observable & $\lambda$~[$\mathrm{\mu}$m] & $\varphi~[mJy]$ & Redshift \\
\hline
high-$J$ $\mathrm{CO}$\  lines  &$\sim300$ &  $3-30$   &  $z>5$ \\
$[$O I$]$~$\ ^3P_1\rightarrow^3P_2$& $63.2$ & $\sim20$   &  $z>5.7$ \\
$[$O~III$]$~$^3P_1\rightarrow^3P_0$& $51.8$ & $\sim20$  &  $z>3.8$ \\
$[$N~II$]$~$^3P_2\rightarrow^3P_1$ & $121.9$ &  $\sim7.6$  &  $z>2.5$ \\
$[$O I$]$~$\ ^3P_0\rightarrow^3P_1$ & $145.5$  & $\sim3.5$   &  $z>1.9$ \\
$[$C II$]$~$\ ^2P_{3/2}\rightarrow^2P_{1/2}$  & $157.7$ & $\sim69$   &  $z>1.7$ \\
$[$S III$]$~$\ ^3P_1\rightarrow^3P_0$ & $33.5$ & $\sim1.5$   &  $z>11.5$ \\
$[$Si II$]$~$\ ^2P_{3/2}\rightarrow^2P_{1/2}$ & $34.8$ & $\sim2.6$   &  $z>11.1$ \\
dust continuum  & $\sim500$ & $\sim0.05$ &  $z>0$  \\
\hline
\end{tabular}
\end{center}
\caption{The main observables for ALMA, as discussed in \S~\ref{ALMA}. The estimated flux $\varphi$ for the high-$J$~$\mathrm{CO}$\  lines assumes that one typical resolution element of $\sim0.01''$ is comparable to the source size, while the other fluxes correspond to the fluxes observed for NGC~1068 if it were placed at $z\sim8$ (for lines only observable at $z>10$, we placed it at $z=12$). The rest frame wavelength is given as $\lambda$. The line and continuum sensitivities are given in Table \ref{tab:ALMA}.}
\label{tab:observables}
\end{table}%

 As discussed by \citet{Finkelstein08}, there are further contributions from dust emission which may be relevant for ALMA as well, because the continuum sensitivity is higher by two orders of magnitude. For NGC~1068, \citet{Brauher08} report a flux of $85.04$~Jy at $25$~$\mathrm{\mu}$m and $224$~Jy at $100$~$\mathrm{\mu}$m. For $z>5$, such fluxes would be redshifted into the ALMA bands. An interpolation to $500$~$\mathrm{\mu}$m yields a flux of $\sim700$~Jy, which would be redshifted into ALMA band 3 for $z\sim5$. For the same emission at this redshift, we would therefore expect a flux of $0.06$~mJy, which matches with the band sensitivity. For objects at $z=8$, we need to consider emission at $\sim330$~$\mathrm{\mu}$m which is redshifted into band 3, where the extrapolation yields $\sim520$~Jy. This yields an expected flux of $\sim0.05$~mJy, which is detectable within a few hours of integration time. Such emission may be even stronger if the dust is heated further by ongoing starbursts.

In addition to the high-$J$~$\mathrm{CO}$\  lines, it seems likely that other lines can be detected with ALMA as well. For our fiducial AGN NGC~1068, \citet{Spinoglio05} measured a number of different fine-structure lines with the Long Wavelength Spectrometer (LWS) on board the Infrared Space Observatory (ISO). From their sample, we have identified several lines that are interesting for observations at high redshift. Assuming the same source at larger redshift, we find typical fluxes that could be detected with ALMA within one to several hours (see Table~\ref{tab:observables}). The high angular resolution of ALMA may even allow to resolve and detect the higher fluxes from the inner core. The detection of the $\mathrm{O}$\  and $\mathrm{C}^+$\  fine-structure lines will be particularly interesting, as the sum of the [O~I]~$63$~$\mathrm{\mu}$m, the [C~II]~$158$~$\mathrm{\mu}$m and the $\mathrm{CO}$\  lines is close to the total cooling rate of the gas, given that above $10^{-2}$ solar metallicity the cooling via $\mathrm{H}_2$\  rotational lines is only a small contribution.

Since at high densities in XDRs the thermal balance establishes rapidly, the total cooling flux equals the heating flux. This allows one to infer the impinging X-ray flux, while the sum of the fine-structure and CO lines divided by the heating efficiency is always a measure of the X-ray flux that has been transformed into heat. The heating efficiency of $\sim10\%$ is largely independent of energy and the spectral shape of the flux \citep{Dalgarno99}.
For a spatially resolved source, the linear size of the cooling gas can be obtained from the spectroscopic redshift. The corresponding X-ray flux on that size scale can then be converted into a luminosity. The observed profiles of the line width may be used to derive further estimates for the black hole mass and the accretion rate \citep{Kaspi00, McLure02, Vestergaard02, Warner03, Dietrich04}. In addition, a detection of multiple $\mathrm{CO}$\  lines provides the density and column density distribution as a function of distance from the central engine.

Of course, the metallicity is also a caveat regarding some of the observables discussed here. While this work assumes that it is close to the solar value, the situation for low-metallicity gas has been explored previously by \citet{Spaans08}. For metallicities $Z>10^{-2}\ Z_\odot$, they find intensities in the range $10^{-6}-10^{-3}$~erg~s$^{-1}$~cm$^{-2}$~sr$^{-1}$. For even lower metallicities, the $\mathrm{CO}$\  lines are hard to detect, but emission from $\mathrm{HeH}^+$\  and H$_3^+$ becomes more prominent. Particularly interesting at very low metallicities is also the strong emission in $\mathrm{H}_2$, which will be redshifted into ALMA band 10 for sources at $z>10$ if this band is realized. While such low metallicities seem unlikely at $z\sim8$, it may become more relevant at these higher redshift.

The choice of metallicity may be guided by other observables like the amount of dust emission, the detection of a strong starburst by JWST as well as theoretial considerations regarding the observability of $\mathrm{CO}$\ ~lines in low-metallicity gas \citep{Spaans08}. Such estimates may be refined further employing follow-up observations with other telescopes that search for the UV N$^{4+}$ and C$^{3+}$ lines. Their line ratio provides an important diagnostic for the metallicity and has been used to derive the metallicity in the known high-redshift quasars \citep{Pentericci02}.

\subsection{Observables for JWST}\label{JWST}

In the frequency range of JWST, it is possible to detect redshifted stellar light, the AGN continuum and dust. While such detections will not allow to identify the object unambigously as a quasar, they could be used to provide a source list for more detailed follow-up observations with ALMA, which would allow us to do this identification through the shape of the $\mathrm{CO}$\  line SED \citep{Spaans08}. In addition, they provide complementary information about star formation in these systems. Quasars with unobscured broad-line regions may also be visible in further lines. In this section, we will focus on the Near Infrared Camera (NIRCam), which will provide high sensitivity of the order a few nJy for a $3\sigma$ detection at $0.7-4.44\ \mathrm{\mu}$m wavelengths after an integration time of $10^4$~s (see Table~\ref{tab:JWST}) and a field of view of $(2.16')^2$. It will consist of $4096^2$ pixels, with an angular resolution of $0.0317''$ per pixel for the short wavelengths and $0.0648''$ per pixel for the long wavelengths.

\begin{figure}[t]
\includegraphics[scale=0.55]{f7.eps}
\caption{The observed spectrum of a starburst with $10\ M_\odot$~yr$^{-1}$ with an age of $5$~Myr located at different redshifts. This is compared to the NIRCam sensitivities for $3\sigma$ detection after an integration time of one day. For $z\lesssim10$, such starbursts can be detected within a few hours.}
\label{fig:starlight}
\end{figure}

As discussed in \S~\ref{observed}, we expect a star formation rate of $\sim10\ M_\odot$~yr$^{-1}$ in an object like NGC~1068. To calculate the corresponding spectrum, we employ the evolutionary synthesis code Starburst99 \footnote{http://www.stsci.edu/science/starburst99/} \citep{Leitherer99, Vazquez05}. We adopt their standard IMF with an exponent of $1.3$ in the range $0.1-0.5\ M_\odot$, and $2.3$ in the range $0.5-100\ M_\odot$  and take the spectrum after a simulation time of $5$~Myr, which corresponds to the age of the circumnuclear starburst ring in this object. We then calculate the expected flux for this starburst at different redshifts. The results are shown in Fig.~\ref{fig:starlight} and compared to the NIRCam sensitivity. For an integration time of one day, we find that such a starburst can be detected with $3\sigma$ at redshift $z=15$. For redshifts $z\lesssim10$, even a few hours are sufficient for detection.

For comparison, we also consider a model with a star formation rate of $\sim1\ M_\odot$~yr$^{-1}$ (see Fig.~\ref{fig:starlight2}). In this case, an integration time of one day is still sufficient to find a starburst at $z\sim5$. A more extended integration time of $10$ days even suffices to find such starbursts down to $z\lesssim10$. This is still rather short compared to proposed surveys searching for light from the first galaxies, which require integration times of $0.4$~years \citep{Windhorst06}.

For the AGN continuum, \citet{Spinoglio05} present a model that peaks at $0.1-0.3$~eV with a flux of $\sim0.01$~Jy. Such radiation will be redshifted into the frequency range of JWST for $z>5$. We would expect a flux of $\sim0.9$~nJy at $z=5$ and $\sim0.3$~nJy at $z=8$. The first would be detectable after an integration time of about three days, and the latter within a time of about $15$~days. In practice, this radiation component will of course overlap with the radiation from the starburst and just leads to a mild increase in the total radiation budget.

\begin{table}[htdp]
\begin{center}
\begin{tabular}{ll}
Wavelength  & Sensitivity \\
\hline
$0.70$ $\mathrm{\mu}$m  &  $7.24$ nJy  \\
$0.90$ $\mathrm{\mu}$m &  $4.62$ nJy  \\
$1.15$ $\mathrm{\mu}$m &  $3.70$ nJy   \\
$1.50$  $\mathrm{\mu}$m &  $3.41$ nJy  \\
$2.00$ $\mathrm{\mu}$m  & $2.83$ nJy  \\
$2.77$ $\mathrm{\mu}$m& $3.81$ nJy  \\
$3.22$ $\mathrm{\mu}$m& $2.75$ nJy \\
$3.56$ $\mathrm{\mu}$m & $4.08$ nJy  \\
$4.44$ $\mathrm{\mu}$m &  $6.18$ nJy \\
\hline
\end{tabular}
\end{center}
\caption{The NIRCam sensitivity of JWST for a detection at $3\sigma$ after an integration time of $10^4$~s. These values assume that the wide filter is used, which is appropriate for continuum fluxes as considered here.}
\label{tab:JWST}
\end{table}%

\begin{figure}[t]
\includegraphics[scale=0.55]{f8.eps}
\caption{The observed spectrum of a starburst with $1\ M_\odot$~yr$^{-1}$ with an age of $5$~Myr located at different redshifts. This is compared to the NIRCam sensitivities for $3\sigma$ detection after an integration time of $10$ days. This allows $3\sigma$ detection of such starbursts for $z\lesssim10$.}
\label{fig:starlight2}
\end{figure}

Additional contributions are also present from redshifted Lyman $\alpha$ radiation, which are particularly enhanced in the presence of a starburst or a supermassive black hole. For example in a halo containing $M_h=10^{11}\ M_\odot$, \citet{Dijkstra06a, Dijkstra06b} find Lyman~$\alpha$ luminosities of $\sim10^{42}$~erg~s$^{-1}$. Considering such a source at high redshift and spreading this energy over a frequency range of $\sim5\times10^4$~GHz, corresponding to the width of the detector, yields a flux of $\sim8$~nJy at $z=5$, and $\sim2$~nJy at $z=8$. As they find the luminosity to scale with $M_h^{5/3}$, this contribution becomes less significant in smaller systems. Such a flux could be detected within several hours.

If in addition the Mid Infrared Instrument (MIRI) camera is employed, which has a field of $1.88'\times1.27'$ and observes at $5-28\mu$m with sensitivities ranging from $60-8000$~nJy in $10^4$~s for a $3\sigma$ detection and with $R\sim3000$ an intrinsic line width of $\sim100$~km~s$^{-1}$, one may aim at detecting the H~$\alpha$ line at $656.3$~nm. This would allow us to derive black hole masses and accretion rates from the line width, and is complementary to to a derivation of the X-ray luminosity with ALMA \citep{Kaspi00, McLure02, Vestergaard02, Warner03, Dietrich04}. \citet{Kaspi00} give light curves of the H~$\alpha$ and H~$\beta$ fluxes for a sample of quasars. We have estimated the fluxes obtained from the first five sources in their sample, assuming these objects would be shifted to redshift $z\sim8$. The H~$\alpha$ line would then be redshifted to $\sim5.9$~$\mathrm{\mu}$m, where the MIRI camera has a sensitivity of $60$~nJy for $3\sigma$ detection in $10^4$~s. As we find H~$\alpha$ fluxes between $100-700$~nJy, a detection is possible within a few hours or less. The velocity dispersion could be measured with the MIRI spectrograph, as the corresponding fluxes of $2\times10^{-19}-10^{-18}$~erg~s$^{-1}$~cm$^{-2}$ are well above the sensitivity of $2\times10^{-18}$~erg~s$^{-1}$~cm$^{-2}$ for $3\sigma$ detection in $10^4$~s.

For the H~$\beta$ line at $486.1$~nm, we find that it would be redshifted to $\sim4.4$~$\mathrm{\mu}$m, which is still in the range of NIRCam, with a sensitivity of $6.18$~nJy. Our estimates yield fluxes between $2-20$~nJy, detectable within some hours up to a day. At higher redshift, this will also fall into the MIRI frequency range, where it may be detected even on a shorter timescale due to the smaller intrinsic linewidth of the instrument.

\begin{table}[htdp]
\begin{center}
\begin{tabular}{lll}
Observable &  $\varphi~[nJy]$ & estimated from \\
\hline
stellar light  & $0.3-3$ & Davies et al. 2007 \\
AGN continuum  & $0.3$ & Spinoglio et al. 2005 \\
Lyman $\alpha$  & $\sim2$ & Dijkstra et al. 2006 \\
H~$\alpha$    &  $100-700$ & Kaspi et al. 2000\\
H~$\beta$   &  $2-20$ & Kaspi et al. 2000 \\
Mg~II~$279.8$~nm  & $10^3-3\times10^3$ & Dietrich et al. 1999  \\
C~IV~$154.9$~nm  & $2\times10^4-10^5$ & Dietrich et al. 2003 \\
\hline
\end{tabular}
\end{center}
\caption{The main observables for JWST, as discussed in \S~\ref{JWST}. We estimate the flux $\varphi$ at $z\sim8$ as described in the text. The NIRCam continuum sensitivities are given in Table \ref{tab:JWST}.}
\label{tab:observablesJWST}
\end{table}%

In addition, one may search for the Mg$^{+}$ line with a rest frame wavelength of $279.8$~nm and the C$^{3+}$ line with $154.9$~nm, which would be redshifted into the NIRCam frequency range and provide complementary information about the velocity dispersion near the black hole. We find that, if the objects from the sample of \citet{Dietrich99} would be shifted to $z\sim8$, the expected fluxes from the C$^{3+}$ line in a typical NIRCam frequency bin (wide filter) would be of the order $1-3$~$\mathrm{\mu}$Jy, and thus detectable within much less than an hour. To estimate the fluxes in the Mg$^{+}$ line, we use the $z=3.4$ sample of \citet{Dietrich03}. We find similarly high fluxes of the order $20-100$~$\mathrm{\mu}$Jy. They may be reduced for less massive black holes, but are well accessible for JWST.

The velocity dispersion of the H~$\beta$, Mg$^{+}$ and C$^{3+}$ lines can be measured with NIRSpec, that provides a sensitivity of $\sim1.5\times10^{-19}$~erg~s$^{-1}$~cm$^{-2}$, while the expected flux is $(1-10)\times10^{-18}$~erg~s$^{-1}$~cm$^{-2}$ for H~$\beta$, $(5-20)\times10^{-16}$~erg~s$^{-1}$~cm$^{-2}$ for C$^{3+}$ and $(1-8)\times10^{-14}$~erg~s$^{-1}$~cm$^{-2}$ for Mg$^+$.

In summary, we find that the component from the starburst will likely be the main observable for JWST, as well as the H~$\alpha$, H~$\beta$, Mg$^{+}$ and C$^{3+}$ lines in case of unobscured broad-line regions. Even the other components alone would be detectable. At redshifts $z\sim5$, typical integration times may reach from a few hours to a day, depending on the luminosity of the source. Near $z\sim10$, typical integration times may vary between one and ten days. The main observables are summarized in Table~\ref{tab:observablesJWST}.

\subsection{The number of high-redshift sources for different observational strategies}

\begin{figure}[t]
\includegraphics[scale=0.4]{f9.eps}
\caption{The expected number of sources for the first observational strategy focusing on high-$J$~$\mathrm{CO}$\  line emission. We adopt a field of view of $(1')^2$, an active quasar fraction of $20\%$ and a redshifter interval of $\Delta z=0.5$ as discussed in the text. Down to $z\sim10$, a typical ALMA field of view therefore has a high chance to find a number of quasars with black holes in the mass range of $10^6-10^7\ M_\odot$. Near $z=6$, one may even find more massive quasars by extending the search to larger volumes. Note that the numbers above scale linearly with the adopted fraction of active quasars.}
\label{fig:strategy1}
\end{figure}

\begin{figure}[t]
\includegraphics[scale=0.4]{f10.eps}
\caption{The expected number of sources for the second observational strategy focusing on continuum radiation mostly from stellar light. We adopt a field of view of $(2.16')^2$ and an active quasar fraction of $100\%$, as the relevant observables do not require quasar activity. We explore a redshift interval of $\Delta z=2$. In fact, this yields a high number of sources that are potentially accessible to JWST within the NIRCam field of view. For redshifts near $z=5$, typical detection timescales are one day or less, while observations near $z=10$ require integration times between one and ten days. This is within reach of deep surveys.}
\label{fig:strategy2}
\end{figure}

With the considerations above, we can attempt to estimate the number of observable sources at different redshifts. We adopt a similar formalism as \citet{Choudhury07} and count the number of black holes $N(z,M_{\sm{BH}})$ with masses larger than $M_{\sm{BH}}$ in a redshift interval $[z,z+\Delta z]$. This is given as
\begin{eqnarray}
N(z,M_{\sm{BH}})&=&\int_z^{z+\Delta z}dz' \frac{dV}{dz' d\Omega}\int_{M_{\sm{min}}}^{M_{\sm{max}}} d\log M_h \nonumber \\
&\times& f_a \frac{dn}{d\log M_h}(M_{BH}),\label{counts}
\end{eqnarray}
where $dV\ dz'^{-1}\ d\Omega^{-1}$ denotes the comoving volume element per unit redshift per unit solid angle, which is given as \citep{Peebles93}
\begin{equation}
\frac{dV}{dz' d\Omega}=D_A^2 c \frac{dt}{dz}.
\end{equation}
In this expression, $D_A$ is the angular diameter distance, $c$ is the speed of light and $dt/dz=1/\left (H(z)(1+z)\right )$, where $H(z)$ is the expansion rate as a function of redshift. The term $dn/d\log M_h$ describes the number density of dark matter halos per unit mass, and the integration range in Eq.~\ref{counts} is chosen such that the minimal halo mass corresponds to a black hole mass of $M_{\sm{BH}}$ for our model in \S~\ref{population}. The upper halo mass is chosen corresponding to a black hole mass of $10^9\ M_\odot$. The parameter $f_a$ is the fraction of active quasars, as introduced in \S~\ref{constraint}.

As our reference system, we have adopted the known AGN  NGC~1068, which has a black hole of $\sim10^7\ M_\odot$ and a starburst component with $\sim10\ M_\odot$~yr$^{-1}$. As discussed above, even less active quasars provide a sufficient amount of $\mathrm{CO}$\  flux for detection, and the same holds for smaller star formation rates. We will therefore assume that typical galaxies containing a $10^6\ M_\odot$ black hole should be observable. To be more conservative, we will also show the corresponding numbers for more massive black holes.

In the following, we will distinguish between two different observational strategies. The first aims at finding high-$J$~$\mathrm{CO}$\  lines with ALMA, which will allow us to unambigously identify a given source as a quasar \citep{Spaans08}. The second aims at finding high-redshift sources in general and focuses mainly on continuum emission from dust or stellar light. In fact, once such sources are found, they can be examined in more detail by other observatories like the Keck telescope or new generations of X-ray telescopes.

For the first observational strategy focusing on line observations, ALMA provides a bandwith of $8$~GHz. In general, one may scan a redshift interval of $\Delta z /(1+z)=\Delta \nu/\nu$, where $\Delta\nu$ refers to the difference with respect to the observed frequency $\nu$. For $\nu\sim90$~GHz and $z\sim5$, this corresponds to $\Delta z=0.5$. This becomes even larger when going to higher redshifts, and smaller for observations at higher frequencies, such that we slightly underestimate the sources at high redshift. We adopt this value here as a typical mean. Based on the results in \S~\ref{constraint}, we assume an active quasar fraction of $f_a\sim20\%$. Our results can however be directly scaled to other values. We consider a field of view of $(1')^2$, even though ALMA can probably scan an angular region of $(3')^2$ within a few days. The result is given in Fig.~\ref{fig:strategy1}.

We find that down to $z\sim10$ there are good chances to detect several sources with black hole masses in the range $10^6-10^7\ M_\odot$ within the ALMA beam. For an extended survey that probes an angular field of $\sim(3')^2$, one may even find quasars with $M_{\sm{BH}}>10^8\ M_\odot$, and at the same time find enough sources with smaller masses to allow a statistical analysis. At redshifts beyond $10$, we find an exponential decrease in the number of high-redshift quasars, though we expect that ALMA could still find some of them. Searching for such systems should be a high priority for future observations, as they are a direct probe for the origin of the first supermassive black holes.

For the second strategy focusing on continuum radiation, we are not restricted to active black holes and work with $f_a=1$. This assumes that such galaxies have a star formation rate of at least $1\ M_\odot$~yr$^{-1}$. However, our results can simply be rescaled for different star formation rates. For continuum observations, the bandwidth is no longer a restriction for the redshift range, and we consider a generic interval of $\Delta z=2$. We adopt the NIRCam field of view of $(2.16')^2$. The result is then given in Fig.~\ref{fig:strategy2}. While we cannot be sure that the detected objects are active quasars, it is always possible to address this question with follow-up observations involving other telescopes. In the NIRCam field of view, we expect $10^2-10^3$ observable sources at redshifts $5-10$, and $10-100$ at redshifts beyond. In addition, we expect a few very bright sources that could be associated with $10^8\ M_\odot$ black holes within the field of view. They can be found with integration times of a few hours, but beyond that a deep field is required to see smaller galaxies and probe the early epoch of galaxy formation in detail.

\subsection{What we will learn about the brightest quasars}
In addition to finding less massive quasars at higher redshift, instruments like ALMA and JWST can be used to get more detailed information about those sources that we already know. At redshift $z=6$, a typical angular resolution of $\sim0.01'$ corresponds to a spatial resolution of $\sim60$~pc. It is thus possible to resolve the quasar host galaxy in high-$J$~$\mathrm{CO}$\  emission and dust with ALMA. As these sources are very bright in X-ray emission, the required flux to density ratio that produces significant $\mathrm{CO}$\  emission is shifted to larger scales further away from the central black hole and fills a larger region in space. With detailed diagnostics for the $\mathrm{CO}$\  lines, it is thus possible to probe temperature and density in these systems with spatial resolution. With a spectral resolution of up to $0.01$~km~s$^{-1}$, the dynamics of the gas can be probed in detail, in particular with respect to typical infall velocities as well as winds and jets.

In addition, JWST will provide complementary information about stellar light, the AGN continuum and Lyman $\alpha$ emission. The latter could be clearly discriminated from the continuum contribution using specific narrow filters tuned to the wavelength corresponding to the redshifted Lyman $\alpha$ line.

\section{Discussion and outlook}\label{discussion}
In this paper, we have presented a model for the quasar population at high redshift, based on the known correlations between the black hole mass and its host galaxy. We have derived constraints on the fraction of active quasars from the SXRB and discussed the expected observables. We have based our discussion on using NGC~1068 as a template AGN, and calculated its observability at high redshift. Our focus lies in particular on high-$J$~$\mathrm{CO}$\  lines, fine-structure lines of $\mathrm{C}^+$\  and $\mathrm{O}$, dust emission, stellar light, the AGN continuum and Lyman $\alpha$ radiation. Above a metallicity of $10^{-2}$ solar, $\mathrm{CO}$, $\mathrm{C}^+$\  and $\mathrm{O}$\  are the main coolants, and their detection can be used to derive an estimate for the heating rate and the impinging X-ray flux. A profile of the observed line width further allows to derive estimates for the black hole mass and probes the mass - luminosity relation at high redshift. We expect that galaxies containing a black hole in the mass range $10^6-10^7\ M_\odot$ can be observed at high redshift with ALMA and JWST. We predict $1-10$ high-redshift sources that can be found via molecular lines in an ALMA field of view of $(1')^2$, and $100-1000$ sources to be found by JWST using NIRCam and focusing on stellar emission.

One uncertainty in this discussion comes from the question whether the Maggorian relation is established already at high redshift. This seems fair in light of supersolar metallicities in high-redshift quasars. On the other hand, if our model overpredicts the number of high-redshift black holes, the X-ray constraints would be alleviated further, and a larger fraction of the black hole population could be active. In this sense, the number of active quasars might still be of the same order. Indeed, unless the population of black holes between redshifts $5$ and $6$ has accreted mass with high super-Eddington rates, there must be progenitors with masses of $\sim10^6-10^7\ M_\odot$ at higher redshift. It is a secondary issue for our purposes whether the black hole would be directly visible in X-rays, or if the system is a hidden AGN and only visible in the excited high-$J$~$\mathrm{CO}$\  lines.

In about three years, ALMA will become operational with initially $16$~antennas. This will provide sufficient sensitivity to detect high-$J$~$\mathrm{CO}$\  lines, fine-structure lines and dust continuum emission from the brightest high-redshift quasars that are already known. As these systems are large, the high angular resolution of ALMA will provide detailed spatial information about the inner structure of such systems, and detailed diagnostics for the $\mathrm{CO}$\  lines allow to infer the density and temperature distribution in the host galaxy \citep{Meijerink07}.

Once ALMA has the full set of $50$~antennas, it reaches even higher sensitivity and it becomes possible to search for AGNs with less massive black holes. For such deep field observations, we recommend to focus initially on modest redshifts of $z\sim5-6$, where we expect higher fluxes, more sources, and where one may be more confident that the Magorrian relation is well-established. This provides an important test to confirm the observability of high-redshift quasars, as well as important information about the progenitors of the most massive quasars in the universe. Such studies can then gradually be extended to higher redshifts and will provide a direct test for structure formation models in the high-redshift universe and of the Magorrian relation at different redshifts.

JWST can aid such surveys by providing additional sources that may be detected in stellar light, the AGN continuum or Lyman $\alpha$ emission. In this case, ALMA does not need to glance into the dark sky, but can do pointed follow-ups of the known sources. This will speed up high-redshift surveys, and provide complementary information at different frequencies. It is particularly important at very high redshift beyond $z\sim10$, where the probability of finding sources in the ALMA field of view decreases rapidly. The combination of these instruments can therefore truely detect the first quasars in the universe.

\acknowledgments

We thank Robi Banerjee, Andrea Ferrara, Wilfred Frieswijk, Simon Glover, Thomas Greif, Edo Loenen, Rowin Meijerink and Dieter Poelman for valuable discussions on the topic. DRGS thanks the Heidelberg Graduate School of Fundamental Physics (HGSFP), the LGFG and the Graduate Academy Heidelberg for financial support. The HGSFP is funded by the Excellence Initiative of the German Government (grant number GSC 129/1). RSK thanks for support from the Emmy Noether grant KL 1358/1. DRGS and RSK also acknowledge subsidies  from the DFG SFB 439 {\em Galaxies in the Early Universe}.

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Dallas Stars left wing Jamie Benn Sergei Belski-USA TODAY Sports
A deep dive into the Dallas Stars' salary-cap situation
Originally posted on Pro Hockey Rumors | By Brian La Rose | Last updated 11/25/21
Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don't see struggles and front-office changes.
PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading for the 2021-22 season and beyond. This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.
Current cap hit: $85,575,985 (over the $81.5M upper limit)
Entry-level contracts
G Jake Oettinger (one year, $925K)
F Jacob Peterson (two years, $842.5K)
F Jason Robertson (one year, $795K)
Potential bonuses
Oettinger: $537.5K
Peterson: $82.5K
Robertson: $82.5K
Total: $702.5K
Peterson spending this much time on the roster early on in his first season in North America is a bit of a surprise, but the fact he has done well is certainly encouraging for the Stars. With it being his first year, it's hard to project where his next deal will be, but he's well on his way to hitting some of his games-played bonus money. Robertson finished second on the Stars in scoring last season and is hovering near the point-per-game mark again this year. Limited action in his rookie campaign hurts his bargaining power a little, but as long as he can play at a similar level to last year, he should have enough of a case to argue for a long-term contract with an AAV that could check in close to the one Carolina's Andrei Svechnikov recently received (eight years, $7.75M cap hit).
Oettinger is listed here more to talk about his next contract than anything else, as he's basically the third-string option this season unless they move two veteran goalies out. He could be a regular again in 2022-23, and while the Stars would be wise to try to get a multiyear agreement in place with him, there's little reason for the youngster to agree to that. A one-year agreement that gets him to arbitration eligibility in the 2023 summer would be his best course of action even if it means his salary won't jump up too much for next season. Meanwhile, as he has "A" bonuses, it's unlikely he'll hit them this season unless he's up full-time before too much longer, which will help lessen their carryover penalty.
One year remaining, non-entry-level
F Denis Gurianov ($2.55M, RFA)
G Braden Holtby ($2M, UFA)
D John Klingberg ($4.25M, UFA)
F Joe Pavelski ($7M, UFA)
F Alexander Radulov ($6.25M, UFA)
F Michael Raffl ($1.1M, UFA)
D Andrej Sekera ($1.5M, UFA)
Pavelski's first season was quiet aside from a strong playoff run, which carried over into last year when he led the Stars in scoring. He's still producing like a top-six forward at a minimum (if not a top-liner last season), but he's also going to be 38 when 2022-23 gets underway. A one-year deal seems likely, which opens up the potential for bonuses as well. Even so, he's going to be heading for at least a small dip, but something in the $4M-$5M range is certainly possible. Radulov is the other big-ticket deal coming off the books. He's coming off an injury-plagued season and is off to a particularly tough start this year. He'll be 36 next season, and there will be questions as to whether or not he can still play in the top six of an NHL team. As someone who has opted to take bigger money overseas once before, it's definitely a possibility here if his AAV dips into the $3M range.
Gurianov got this bridge coming off an improbable 20-goal season but still hasn't been able to establish himself as a consistent top-six forward. He's young enough (24) to get a longer leash, but his qualifying offer jumps to $2.9M next summer. With the start to the season he's having, it's hard to see him getting much more than that in theory, but with arbitration eligibility, he should be able to use that to push past the $3M mark. Raffl has been more of a fourth-liner in recent years, and after going through the market this past summer, it's safe to say his value next summer should check in fairly close to his current $1.1M price tag.
If Dallas is going to reallocate some of Pavelski or Radulov's money, Klingberg could very well be the beneficiary. A report last month pegged his asking price at more than $60M over eight years, an AAV of $7.5M or higher. That's a significant jump over his current price tag, but he has the offensive production to try to shoot that high. The Stars may not prefer to go eight years, but if it keeps the cap hit lower, they'll seriously have to consider it. Sekera hasn't been an impact blueliner for a few years now and has been more of a depth player in Dallas. He'll have to take a pay cut to get another NHL deal and could be a candidate for an incentive-based deal with a guarantee not far off the minimum with a few hundred thousand in games-played bonuses.
Holtby landing with Dallas was one of the more puzzling goalie moves this summer, but the team they got him at a heavily discounted rate compared to a few years ago. Of course, there's a reason for that since he was bought out by Vancouver. He's off to a decent start this season, which could help him restore some value and get closer to that higher tier of backups in the high-$3M range.
Two years remaining
G Ben Bishop ($4.917M, UFA)
F Luke Glendening ($1.5M, UFA)
D Joel Hanley ($750K, UFA)
F Roope Hintz ($3.15M, RFA)
G Anton Khudobin ($3.33M, UFA)
F Joel Kiviranta ($1.05M, UFA)
Hintz has largely flown under the radar in Dallas with several high-priced veterans in front of him, but he was a top-liner for the Stars last season. His output has dipped early on this year, but there's still time to turn that around. Their cap situation in 2020 forced a bridge deal, but Hintz will have the hammer in the next negotiation with arbitration rights, a $3.79M qualifier (120% of the AAV) and being a year away from UFA eligibility. A long-term deal in the $6M range is certainly doable for him. Glendening is a role player at this point, but as one of the best faceoff players in the league most years, it allows him to get more of a premium compared to other fourth-liners. As long as he keeps winning draws at a clip better than most, there's no reason to think he can't get another deal around this price tag in 2023. Kiviranta was at his best in the 2020 bubble but has yet to establish himself as a full-time NHL player, and he has been limited when he is in the lineup. If that continues, he'll be hard-pressed to get this on the open market, let alone more.
Hanley has been on a minimum contract for the last several seasons, serving as low-cost depth. That's a roster spot they'll want to keep at that price point, so he could stick around for a little while yet.
Bishop missed all of last season and all of this year so far, which has him on LTIR. However, he has been skating regularly for a while now but they can't afford to activate him without clearing cap space first so that's something to watch for from Dallas in the near future. With how much time he has missed and the fact his next deal will be his age-37 season, it's not a guarantee Bishop gets another contract, and if he does, a one-year, incentive-based deal with a lower salary is all he could hope for. Khudobin's numbers dipped last season and have gotten considerably worse so far in 2021-22. Like Bishop, his next contract will be his age-37 season, so he'll probably be eyeing a one-year deal at best, and if his numbers continue to be this poor, it'll be at a much lower cost than his current one.
Three years remaining
D Jani Hakanpaa ($1.5M, UFA)
Hakanpaa got himself on the map last season as he played in 57 games between Anaheim and Carolina (notable in itself considering it was a 56-game campaign) while providing plenty of physicality from the back end. That resulted in a fairly strong market for him in free agency, allowing him to get three years after only his first NHL season at the age of 29. He'll need to move into a top-four role to have an opportunity for a bigger deal next time around.
Four or more years remaining
F Jamie Benn ($9.5M through 2024-25)
F Radek Faksa ($3.25M through 2024-25)
D Miro Heiskanen ($8.45M through 2028-29)
D Esa Lindell ($5.8M through 2024-25)
F Tyler Seguin ($9.85M through 2026-27)
D Ryan Suter ($3.65M through 2024-25)
Seguin's contract has not held up too well in the early going. He hasn't surpassed the point-per-game mark since 2015-16, and injuries certainly didn't help him at all last year. When he's at his best, he's still a No. 1 center, but those moments haven't been as frequent in recent years, making this a fairly significant above-market deal that still has a long way to go. The drop-off has been even more noticeable for Benn in recent years. The captain has been more of a second liner the last few years as his playing style starts to catch up to him, so it's unlikely they'll get positive value out of the rest of his contract either. Faksa hasn't been able to become the top-six piece the Stars hoped he'd become when they made him a lottery pick back in 2012, but he has become a serviceable middle-six center. Knowing the demand for those types of players, getting him locked up for this long at that price tag is decent value for the Stars.
Heiskanen was one of several young blueliners to sign expensive contracts over the summer. His deal at the time was a record for a rearguard coming off an entry-level pact (one that has since been broken) while it was also the richest contract given to a Finnish-born player (which has also since been broken). He has certainly proved to be worth it already as he became their top defender in a hurry and hasn't really slowed down while logging heavy minutes on a nightly basis. Considering what the likes of Drew Doughty and Erik Karlsson got in their contract years to set the market standard for top blueliners, Heiskanen's contract checks in as a nice bargain for the Stars even with how rich it is.
Lindell hasn't really been able to blossom into the high-end two-way defender they hoped he'd be as his production hasn't quite gotten to that level. Nevertheless, he's still a very valuable player in his own end, logging top-pairing minutes at a price tag that is below what many top-pairing players get. The fact that Suter received a four-year contract at the age of 36 is impressive, but it's also a sign of how valued he was across the league. As long as he can hold down a spot in their top four (and there's no reason to think he can't for another year or two at least), then he'll give them some good value on the deal.
Retained salary transactions
Best value: Hintz
Worst value: Benn
The Stars are going to have a decision to make soon, as Bishop will eventually have to be activated, which will set off a series of transactions to get them back into cap compliance. From there, they'll be tight to the upper limit for the rest of the season, which won't give them much wiggle room to try to add to their roster between now and the trade deadline.
Next summer, GM Jim Nill will have some extra flexibility available with Radulov, Pavelski and Klingberg among the more than $20M coming off the books as unrestricted free agents. That will give him an opportunity to pivot directions if he wants to, but retaining or replacing those players should take them right back to the cap ceiling. Expect to see Dallas tight to the upper limit for the foreseeable future as a result.
This article first appeared on Pro Hockey Rumors and was syndicated with permission.
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90. Terme di Marco Crasso Frugi, Oncino, Oplontis, Torre Annunziata.
Excavated 1831-1834, 1940s and 1960.
The Baths of Marcus Crassus Frugi were found in the years 1831-1834 in Torre Annunziata, in the area of Oncino, during construction of the spa establishment of General Vito Nunziante.
They are located under today's Terme Vesuviane at the Rampa Nunziante.
According to Wikipedia Italia the Baths of the consul Marcus Crassus Frugi date back to 64 AD and the ruins are still visible along the via Litoranea Marconi and within the current Terme Vesuviane, the spa complex founded by General Vito Nunziante in 1831 on the site of the ancient baths.
Maiuri identifies the baths structure on the promontory of Oncino at Oplontis, with underground reservoirs for seawater, as being linked to Marcus Crassus Frugi and the inscription on the marble plaque found reused in Pompeii.
See Maiuri, A., 1959. Note di topografia pompeiana: Rendiconti Accademia Archeol. Lett. B. Arti di Napoli, 34, pp. 81ff.
According to Fagan, the nature and function of this structure is most unclear.
See Fagan G. G., Bathing in Public in the Roman World, p.63 note 76.
According to Fergola, Liberatore, however, identifies them as the Terme Nonie, that is, belonging to Lucius Nonius Florus. This name appears on the edge of a terracotta basin that was part of the furnishings of the baths, and which also was decorated with vegetal forms and galloping horses.
See Liberatore, R., 1835. Delle nuove ed antiche terme di Torre Annunciata: articolo inserito nel fascicolo XII degli Annali Civili. Napoli, p. 43.
Casale A., Bianco A., Primo contributo alla topografia del suburbio pompeiano: Supplemento al n. 15 di ANTIQUA ottobre-dicembre 1979, 120, p. 47, fig. 21.
Corpus Inscriptionum Latinarum Vol. X part 1, 1883. Berlin: Reimer, p. 122, CIL X 1063.
D'Arms J.H., 1970. Romans on the Bay of Naples, Cambridge (Mass.), pp. 214-215.
Della Corte, M., 1965. Case ed Abitanti di Pompei. Napoli: Fausto Fiorentino, pp. 29-30.
Fagan G. G., 1999. Bathing in Public in the Roman World. Univ of Michigan Press. p.62.
Keppie, L., 1991. Understanding Roman Inscriptions. Baltimore: John Hopkins U.P. p. 57.
Kockel V., 1985. Funde und Forschungen in den Vesuvstädten 1: Archäologischer Anzeiger, Heft 3. 1985, p. 547.
Maiuri, A., 1959. Note di topografia pompeiana: Rendiconti Accademia Archeol. Lett. B. Arti di Napoli, 34, pp. 73ff.
Malandrino C., 1977. Oplontis, Napoli, pp. 41ff. and figs. 9-11.
Terme di Marco Crasso Frugi. Torre Annunziata, Location plan.
Plaque found reused in the niche of a shrine in the Villa of Cicero at Pompeii.
Now in Naples Archaeological Museum. Inventory number 3829.
The hot baths of Marcus Crassus Frugi; sea water available and a bath with fresh water. The freedman Januarius.
See Keppie, L., 1991. Understanding Roman Inscriptions. Baltimore: John Hopkins U.P. p. 57.
According to Fagan, this plaque was found in 1749 near the Herculaneum Gate.
He states that the location of these baths is not known, but the owner has frequently been identified with M Crassus Frugi who was consul in AD46 who, Pliny the Elder reports, owned hot springs that came from the sea itself, in the Bay of Baiae.
The identification, however, is far from certain, and, since the baths may have run in the family for some time before Pliny's Crassus, their construction may date back to the reign of Tiberius.
In fact three M. Crassus Frugi, the consuls of AD 14, 27 and 64, are candidates for the construction and/or ownership of this building.
The inscription draws a clear distinction between two types of bathing, one in sea water and one in fresh water, which would require either separate structures close at hand or at least distinct section in a single building. Both possibilities are attested elsewhere.
He quotes Maiuri as identifying these baths as being a structure on the promontory of Oncino at Oplontis, with underground reservoirs for seawater.
Fagan, however, regards the nature and function of this structure as most unclear.
See Fagan G. G., 1999. Bathing in Public in the Roman World. Univ of Michigan Press. p.62 and notes 74-6.
See Maiuri, A., 1959. Note di topografia pompeiana: Rendiconti Accademia Archeol. Lett. B. Arti di Napoli, 34, pp. 73ff.
Plaque as described in CIL X 1063.
See Corpus Inscriptionum Latinarum Vol. X part 1, 1883. Berlin: Reimer, p. 122, CIL X 1063.
Terme di Marco Crasso Frugi. Torre Annunziata. Plan by Raffaele Liberatore dated 1 Dicembre 1834.
Pianta delle Antiche Fabbriche incontrati nella costruzione della strada che conduce allo Stabilimento dei Bagni di Acqua Termo-Minerale-Vesuviana-Nunzianti.
Terme di Marco Crasso Frugi. Torre Annunziata. After I dicembre 1834 plan by Raffaele Liberatore.
Plan of the old buildings encountered in the construction of the road that leads to the thermal mineral water baths of Vesuviana-Nunziante.
C to D: A slight ramp under the above-mentioned road, ending in an arched door to m-n connecting with a brick made well shaft (O), perfectly cylindrical rising almost up to the plane of the road itself. Its depth is 30 palms (7.91m) until the water level which at present maintains a depth of 5 palms (1.32m). These are of the same nature as those derived from existing source in the centre of the establishment. The cylindrical brickwork in its lower portion terminates on a pentagonal base supported by five pillars of white marble in the 5 corners of the Pentagon. These pillars seem to have been reused from a Doric temple or other magnificent building, there being low relief rosettes, heads of calves on the cornices. Each pair of pillars joined with brick arches almost Gothic in form. All this was found below the water level.
H-I: This wall was 184 palms (48.5m) long, and headed perfectly to the north with attached rooms, each of 18 palms (4.75m) square, which may continue in the same direction.
K-L: This opening is 13.5 palms (3.56m) with a threshold of white marble, composed of three pieces and with the corresponding gutter to the outside of the door as seen in Pompeii.
P-Q: Another marble threshold also 13.5 palms (3.56m) and made of three pieces.
T-U-R-S-V: At the same time it was discovered that the wall from G to T also continues according to the outlined T-U-R-S-V.
M-H: A vertical cross-section along this line shows that the lower floor is 58 palms (15.3m) below existing farmland, and the remains of the baths level are 28 palms (7.38m) below existing farmland.
The same section pointed out that the existing hard rock above, and also below the tenements in question was not the result of several eruptions, being formed of horizontal layers of different natures, that is, from the ground with lapilli, perfect tufa, lapilli mixed with metallic substances, packed ash etc. etc., and these layers formed only the upper part to the old construction, and there were infinite others below, encountered in reaching the floor of the baths.
See Liberatore, R., 1835. Delle nuove ed antiche terme di Torre Annunciata: articolo inserito nel fascicolo XII degli Annali Civili. Napoli, Tav.
The construction work of the spa was on the remains of the previous baths of Roman origin.
Six rooms were found, some pools, 30 ornate small pedestals/columns and another 48 small pedestals/columns.
All the rooms discovered had gaps under the floor and in the walls for the passage of hot air.
Also discovered were tunnels and caves in the water system of the Romans, the only archaeological evidence of the geohydrology.
The finding of a hot spring [in the 1830s] prompted General Nunziante to build a thermal spa above that is still operating.
The success of the spa led to the building of the Naples to Portici railway, the first Italian railway network, enabling people to get to the spa more easily.
The construction work of the spa, to which was added that of the railway, resulted in there being little evidence remaining of the ancient baths.
See Malandrino C., 1977. Oplontis. Napoli: Loffredo editore, pp. 41ff, fig. 10.
See Casale A., Bianco A., Primo contributo alla topografia del suburbio pompeiano: Supplemento al n. 15 di ANTIQUA ottobre-dicembre 1979, n. 120, p. 47, fig. 21.
Terme di Marco Crasso Frugi. Capo Oncino. Construction of the Rampa Nunziata in the 1940s.
Pictured left, the construction of the spa was above the remains of the previous baths of Roman origin.
Terme di Marco Crasso Frugi. Torre Annunziata. Underground water passage or reservoir.
According to Malandrino in May 1960, during works to extend and transform the existing thermal baths, a casual discovery (or rediscovery) was made.
Several tunnels of ancient fabric were discovered which served to carry the water to the ancient baths.
Only two were explored but apparently there were others.
More recent fragments of pottery and lamps were found, which may date from the 1831-4 excavations.
Probably the tunnels were originally explored and then walled up at that date.
This gave rise to the suggestion that this was a rediscovery, rather than a discovery, in 1960.
See Malandrino C., 1977. Oplontis. Napoli: Loffredo Editore, pp. 46f.
According to Marasco, on 8 May 1960, during work undertaken to expand and renovate the mud baths of the Terme Nunziante, by this time rechristened the Terme Vesuviane, an unexpected hole appeared in the solid wall of ash. Workers tore down the ash barrier to reveal a north-south tunnel lying perpendicular to the ash bank they were working on (3.23). It was a channel of Roman construction and therefore part of the ancient bath complex identified in the previous century as belonging to Marcus Crassius Frugi. The tunnel (1.8 m high × 1 m wide) continued north-south for about 5.5 m. The evidence pointed to a varying water level that reached 25 cm at its highest point, and water in the tunnel was subject to tidal ebb and flow. The water was muddy, suggesting that the Romans used it for curative mud baths. Inside the tunnel two large holes of indeterminate depth were thought to be wellsprings used to convey the underlying mineral waters directly to the mud bath. Following this discovery it was decided to sound out the entire wall to look for other cavities or tunnels, with the hoped-for result: A second tunnel was found 2.95 m from the first one (3.24).
The initial section of the second tunnel extended north-south for about 20 m before turning west for another 5 m and then flowing into a well of unknown depth. The tunnel was about 1.55 m high and on average 1.65 m wide, with walls free from any type of plaster but covered with a layer of saltpetre. The tunnel floor was somewhat muddy with water about 25–30 cm deep. This water also seemed subject to the movement of the tides, and this tunnel, contrary to the first one, seemed always to have water in it.
Sulphur dioxide rising from the bottom makes the water look as if it is continuously boiling and also made it impossible to create measured drawings because there was very little oxygen in the tunnel. In all probability, the function of this second tunnel must have been associated with the conveying and continuous supplying of the sulphurous waters to the bath complex.
During the exploration and cleaning of these two tunnels, various types of finds of a more recent date than that assigned to the tunnels themselves came to light—some oil lamps as well as other objects that were presumably left in place during the 1834 excavations by the company of General Vito Nunziante. It is therefore clear that the two tunnels had been discovered and examined by the first explorers of these structures, but for reasons unknown they were then walled up again.
FIG. 3.25 Amedeo Maiuri visits the Terme Nunziante as soon as he hears of the sensational discovery, May 1960. Photo © V. Marasco.
FIG. 3.26 Franz Formisano shows the discovery to Professor Maiuri. Seated at left: Luigi Manzo, manager of the Terme Nunziante. Photo © V. Marasco.
FIG. 3.27 Luigi Manzo discusses the discovery with Professor Maiuri with, from the left, Franz Formisano, Monsignor Salvatore Farro, and Dr. Franco Pierro. Photo © V. Marasco.
FIG. 3.28 Amedeo Maiuri converses with the pioneers of the Oplontis discovery. Photo © V. Marasco.


This weeks WP Weekly Photo Challenge is "One".
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I like that. Very well manicured tree, almost like a giant Banzai (however you spell it) tree, only not so fancy.
I did. You need to say no more.


The proposed health reforms currently being considered by Congress would bring significant changes to our health system, threatening health coverage for millions of Americans and the progress we have made in the last half-century with the enactment of Medicaid and the Affordable Care Act. Medicaid is a public health program that for 50 years has provided qualify, affordable care to the most vulnerable Americans—mostly children, seniors, and people with disabilities. The ACA is a landmark piece of legislation that resulted in the lowest uninsured rate ever recorded, established rights and protections for health care consumers, and provided opportunities to advance health equity.
Protect Our Care Georgia is a broad coalition of community stakeholders and advocates from all across our state. We have launched a shared campaign to ensure that all Georgians get and keep the health coverage and care they need. We want to strengthen, not cut, our state's Medicaid program. We want to build on, not repeal, the Affordable Care Act. Health care is critically important to the health of Georgia's families, communities, and economy. We believe we should work together to make our health system work better for everyone, not rush changes through that would harm Georgians.
The Protect Our Care Georgia campaign is fighting for quality, affordable coverage for all Georgians and we need your help.
If you are an individual, stand with us!
The federal health care proposal currently under consideration by Congress would dismantle Medicaid and repeal the Affordable Care Act.
Over 92 percent of Georgia Medicaid enrollees are children, seniors, and people with disabilities. About 1.3 million Georgia children from low to moderate income families receive services they need to grow up healthy because of Medicaid and PeachCare. PeachCare is Georgia's name for the Children's Health Insurance Program (CHIP), a federal program that helps the state cover more children with household incomes above Medicaid requirements.
Medicaid also covers low-income people with disabilities and provides additional coverage for low-income seniors enrolled in Medicare. People with disabilities can get the support they need for critical services such as durable medical equipment and home health services. Low-income seniors who could not afford prescription drugs or long-term care receive assistance in covering those costs through Medicaid.
Medicaid is the primary payer for 75 percent of Georgia's nursing home patients and pays for more than half of all births in Georgia. As a major source of payment for health services, Medicaid helps a financially-strapped health care system avoid even more dire straits. Medicaid is especially important for rural and safety net hospitals that serve disproportionately more vulnerable patients and rely on Medicaid for a larger percentage of their revenue.
Medicaid provides access to health care for some of the most vulnerable Georgians with more dollars spend directly on health services than private insurers. For every dollar spend on Medicaid, only 6 cents is spent on administrative costs. Private insurers are allowed to spend up to 20 cents per dollar on administrative overhead. Since 2007, Medicaid spending has grown more slowly than private insurance at about one-fourth the rate of private insurance.
For every dollar Georgia invests in Medicaid, the federal government matches with $2.11. The fiscal year 2018 budget starting on July 1, 2017 and ending on June 30, 2017 includes over $6 billion in federal money from Medicaid. Any cut to this funding would squeeze the state's budget. This would require increasing taxes to raise new revenue or pulling resources away from other essential areas such as education, public safety, and transportation. Under federal proposals to cap Medicaid spending, Georgia is projected to lose $4 billion over ten years.
More than 487,000 Georgians purchased health insurance through the ACA's Health Insurance Marketplace (also called healthcare.gov), helping to reduce the state's uninsured rate from 21.4% to 15.9% in three years.
Of those who purchased coverage, 86% get financial help that allow them to pay lower monthly premium costs. This financial help, made possible through the ACA, brought the average monthly premium in Georgia down from $385 to $98. Shifting tax credits from low and middle income workers and families to higher income individuals would increase the costs of health insurance for many Georgians.
The Affordable Care Act established rights and protections for health care consumers that affect most Georgians, even those with job-based coverage.
All individual insurance plans must now cover a comprehensive range of services called essential health benefits. If this part of the ACA is repealed, insurance companies could go back to excluding many common health care needs like maternity coverage and substance abuse treatment.
The ACA prevents insurers from discriminating against people with pre-existing conditions by barring them from coverage or charging them more. Pre-existing conditions include chronic diseases like diabetes, mental health conditions, asthma, cancer, and more.
The ACA allows young adults to stay on their parent's health insurance plan until age 26.
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