text:
Leema Acoustics Libra DAC
Ed Selley
These are strange times for the digital to analogue converter. Having come back from the edge of extinction, it is no longer sufficient for a DAC to be simply a means of turning your ones and zeroes into an analogue signal. First came USB; initially as a convenience feature, but now as an all-singing, all-dancing high resolution connection. Then came volume controls; first doing unpleasant things like bit reduction to get the levels up and down, but later morphing into sophisticated noise shaping devices that can challenge analogue designs.
Now, Leema Acoustics has decided that even acting as a digital preamp is not enough. The Libra is either an extremely ambitious DAC or the start of a new evolution in product categories. Quite whether this is in response to a clearly stated demand for such a thing or a gamble to try and find some clear air in a congested category is unclear, but it is fair to say that the Libra doesn't sit entirely in either the DAC or preamp category. This is a DAC that also happens to have most of the trimmings of an analogue preamp at the same time.
First, however, the decoding side. Leema is in the small group of companies that has an entirely bespoke decoding solution for its products rather than relying on an off-the-shelf DAC. Leema instead uses a system called Quattro Infinity which is designed to avoid the issues of crosstalk (see boxout). With a pair of these modules lurking under a pair of heatsinks on the main board, the Libra is effectively a fully balanced design across both the digital and analogue sections of the circuit.
A bespoke converter is not the whole story of the Libra's decoding. Clever though they may be, the Quattro Infinity modules only support S/PDIF and PCM. As the Libra supports DSD64 and 128 as well as DXD – a tickbox requirement of any digital product at this price point despite the continued absence of any killer material in these formats. Libra uses an additional Cirrus Logic CS4392 DAC is attached to each channel to allow for DSD to be decoded. Interestingly, the Libra can receive DSD via the optical and coaxial inputs as well as the USB connection through the DoP (DSD over PCM) open standard.
As USB remains key to how these DACs will be used, the Libra makes use of Leema's own M1 USB interface. This is fully galvanically isolated and is intended to isolate the Libra from any nastiness that might be passed from the USB source and this should mean that the Libra is entirely agnostic about what you connect to it. This is further aided by Leema supplying drivers for Mac, OSX, and Linux meaning that no operating system should be off limits. Finishing off the digital side of things is a Bluetooth input that supports aptX and allows for a quick and simple convenience connection to suitably equipped devices.
Joining the USB connection are no less than nine other digital inputs. Leema has fitted the Libra with three coax, three optical, two AES inputs, and – like PS Audio before it – the under-utilised I2S connection in addition to the USB input. This means that the Libra should be able to handle even the most sprawling systems without breaking sweat. However, it is what else that lurks on the back panel that really puts the Libra into a different bracket from its rivals.
The Libra has three analogue inputs that feature both XLR and RCA inputs. These are fitted with their own analogue circuitry and their access to the volume control does not involve any flirtations with the digital side. The Libra outputs via either XLR or RCA connections and these can be either given a fixed value or linked to the volume control. This is a 248 step system that can also be used to mute when switching inputs if your levels are somewhat imbalanced. As you might expect from such a device in 2016, the volume ramp is absolutely linear and the performance of the Libra doesn't change at any increment. As such, the Libra – while undoubtedly a DAC – is also unquestionably a preamp, too. It is perfectly possible to use it as a line-level device but this does rather knock out a big chunk of what the Leema has been designed to do.
All this cleverness is then encased in the Constellation casework used on other flagship Leema devices. This is a very hefty piece of metalwork indeed, although the heatsinks on the side are somewhat superfluous on a device that has barely exceeded room temperature in the time it has been in situ. Everything feels solid and well finished though and the matt finish silver front panel is understated and handsome. The controls are pretty logical too. The larger of the two circular controls handles volume while the smaller one handles inputs and menu navigation with a push-to-select function.
The Leema has the facility to adjust filter and phase settings via this menu and you can also alter the pin wiring of the I2S connection should your source happen to have a different one to that supplied by Leema. More specific is the adjustment for LIPS (Leema Intelligent Protocol System), which allows for Leema equipment to be chained together to operate from a single remote and to interact with RS232 and home control systems. The only slight fly in this ointment is that the display that handles this information is a little basic and inelegant. It is fairly easy to read and use, but on a product that costs £6,000 it feels a bit on the crude side. Happily, what Leema takes with one hand it gives with the other, and the remote is a hefty and well crafted device that has all the functions and controls you need, and excellent range and off axis performance.
With a Melco N1A supplying a USB signal, a Naim ND5XS a coaxial one, and a Cyrus Phono Signature doing the honours for an analogue feed, the Leema is simplicity itself to get up and running. Like a number of preamp devices being used at fixed level, it pays not to simply wind the volume output to maximum as you'll find the output levels a little on the high side. In addition, I found the differences between the filter settings are fairly subtle but I have marginally preferred the 'wide' setting.
Firstly and perhaps most importantly, there is no immediate sign of any of that considerable processing horsepower making itself obviously apparent in the audio performance of the Libra. Nothing leaps out of the sonic performance as being overly processed or manipulated. It is abundantly clear after a performance of the 24/96kHz download of Bowie's Blackstar [Columbia] that the Leema has not been imbued with the Quattro Infinity hardware with attention-seeking, demonstration-winning properties that ultimately fade faster than a boy band's career.
Instead, you get Blackstar in all its melancholic weirdness, unvarnished and unembellished. Listen a little longer and what the Libra is up to begins to make itself more apparent. With 'Girl Loves Me', the definition to the curious chord sequence in the lower midrange is defined and presented with a clarity and impact that it never seems to have shown up until this point. As a device for retrieving detail the Libra is truly exceptional but it is what it does with this information that really sets it apart. Instead of drawing your attention to this by throwing it at you in a flurry of information, you get a refined and beautifully integrated picture of what is going on. Everything is there but you get to discover it in your own time rather than being left feeling like the guy in the Maxell tape advert.
Of course, if you do ask the Libra to pick up the pace and deliver a bit of impact with proceedings, it draws on what feels like limitless reserves of grip and attacks Leftfield's 'Bad Radio' with real impact. The Libra has truly wonderful bass. It is free from embellishment or the curious affliction that some digital products suffer from where even the lightest piece of percussion is endowed with the impact of a comet striking the earth. Instead, where depth is needed, you unquestionably receive it – an impact felt as much as heard with the precision and accuracy of a metronome. Where a lightness of touch is needed instead, the Libra is not found wanting.
The only area where you might find the Libra wanting is that for all this discrete ability there are times when you do want it to become slightly more involved. With James McMurtry's splendidly loping 'How'm Gonna Find You Now' [Complicated Game, Blue Rose Records], the Libra is undoubtedly completely in control of the piece but it all seems a little straight laced. Just at the point where you want to lose yourself to the music, the Libra is diligently delivering up the material, but perhaps going a little light on the emotive content. It would be wrong to describe it as 'sterile' as it was never anything like as pronounced to warrant such a word, but it can be seen to be somewhat detached.
It is however, exceptionally consistent. From the Bluetooth connection to the USB input, the Libra delivers the same refined, discrete, and capable performance. The Bluetooth performance is genuinely listenable and an ideal way of getting Tidal to the unit if not supported in another digital source. What is also genuinely clever is that when replaying DSD material – and hence making use of decoding other than the Quattro Infinity system – the Leema still sounds very much as it does with PCM.
Leaving the digital side of the product and switching to analogue, the Libra does a reasonable job of bordering on viceless. This is still not a device that will impart much character of its own – it seems very clear that Leema has gone to considerable lengths to ensure that this is something it won't do – but it is transparent enough to allow for the traits of the devices connected to shine through. Connecting a Cyrus Phono Signature via XLR maintains the polished presentation with the infectious sense of pace that marks it out. Likewise, switching my source Naim ND5 XS to an RCA connection rather than a coaxial one sees some of the bite and attack – that the Leema itself tends to refrain from in the digital domain – making its way back into the presentation.
The volume control in both digital and analogue modes is also a well thought out piece of engineering. With 248 steps, it has the necessary fine adjustment to choose the exact level that you want rather than something approximating to it. Like many implementations of such a volume control the ramp when controlled by remote isn't fast enough to be perfectly responsive but a quick manual swipe of the front panel control (or reaching for mute) is effective in this case.
The Leema Libra pitches into a keenly contested part of the market. Judged as a line-level DAC, it offers plentiful inputs, truck-like build, and a performance that delivers a wide variety of music without any signs of strain or issue. These are attributes that can be pinned to a number of rivals, though: there's no overriding reason to choose the Libra over a number of equally well thought out competitors. Spend some time with the Libra acting as preamp for a system as well as a DAC however, and it begins to make more and more sense. The phrase 'multimedia hub' is something that has rather fallen out of favour of late – it's overused and usually attached to a product that fails to deliver on the promise of the term – but the Libra can lay realistic claim to being such a device. If you play to the Libra's strengths, this is a device that can make a radical difference to a number of different systems.
To Infinity… and Beyond!
The Quattro Infinity DAC used in the Libra and other Leema products, takes its name from the cornerstone of Leema's philosophy in matters of decoding which is the absolute separation of left and right channels; the 'Infinity' part of the name refers to the reduction in crosstalk from the system being effectively infinite. The digital stream is then further processed to produce a plus phase and a minus phase, which is passed through the two sides of each DAC chip so that any common noise is cancelled on reintegration. The process requires a fair amount of decoding horsepower, but Leema is convinced that the process results in worthwhile results.
Product-type: Digital to analogue converter
Analogue Inputs: 3 (configurable as Balanced or Un‑Balanced)
Bluetooth interface: Yes
Headphone Amplifier: Yes
S/PDIF Coaxial Inputs: 3 (24 bit 192kHz & DSD64)
S/PDIF Optical Inputs: 3 (24 bit 192kHz & DSD64)
I2S Inputs: 2 via RJ45 connectors (24 bit 384kHz, DXD, DSD64 & DSD128)
One I2S Input has fully programmable pin allocation
AES/EBU Inputs: 2 via XLR connectors (24 bit 192kHz & DSD64)
Asynchronous USB: Yes (24 bit 384kHz, DXD, DSD64 & DSD128)
USB: Yes (fully asynchronous – Windows & Macintosh)
USB Isolation: Full Galvanic
Dimensions: 440*320*110mm
Price: £5,995.
Manufactured by: Leema Acoustics
URL: www.leema-acoustics.com
http://Back to reviews
By Ed Selley
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text:
Derrick Green Out For Year
Oct 6, 2014 Brady Hoke, College Football, De'Veon Smith, Derrick Green, Drake Johnson, Justice Hayes, Michigan Wolverines, NCAAF, NCAAFB
(Photo Credit To Gregory Shamus / Getty Images North America)
A bad season for Michigan just got worse. Starting running back Derrick Green has been ruled out for the remainder of the 2014 season with a broken clavicle.
Head coach Brady Hoke confirmed the news on Monday. Green suffered the injury on Saturday in the fourth quarter against Rutgers. Green ran for 74 yards on 12 carries.
Green had an up and down season prior to the injury. He ran for a total of 471 yards and 3 touchdowns. His best games were against Appalachian State where he ran for 170 yards and a touchdown and against Miami (OH) when he ran for 137 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Replacing Green will be a combination of De'Veon Smith, Justice Hayes, and Drake Johnson. Smith has 282 yards and 4 touchdowns in 2014. Hayes has 101 yards on 19 carries while Johnson has 28 yards on 3 carries. Those 28 yards came against Appalachian State and he has not recorded any stats since.
Michigan is embroiled in an awful season with their record at 2-4 overall and 0-2 in the Big Ten. They have lost three games in a row to Utah, Minnesota, and Rutgers. Brady Hoke's seat is already uncomfortably warm and it is hard to see him surviving this season even if they win out and go 9-4 with a bowl victory. That scenario is improbable given the way the Wolverines have performed in this season.
Michigan faces Penn State (4-1, 1-1) on Saturday in the Big House.
The State Of Mississippi Announces Its Return
Todd Gurley Suspended

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


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text:
/* TEMPLATE GENERATED TESTCASE FILE
Filename: CWE127_Buffer_Underread__malloc_char_cpy_44.c
Label Definition File: CWE127_Buffer_Underread__malloc.label.xml
Template File: sources-sink-44.tmpl.c
*/
/*
 * @description
 * CWE: 127 Buffer Under-read
 * BadSource:  Set data pointer to before the allocated memory buffer
 * GoodSource: Set data pointer to the allocated memory buffer
 * Sinks: cpy
 *    BadSink : Copy data to string using strcpy
 * Flow Variant: 44 Data/control flow: data passed as an argument from one function to a function in the same source file called via a function pointer
 *
 * */

#include "std_testcase.h"

#include <wchar.h>

#ifndef OMITBAD

static void badSink(char * data)
{
    {
        char dest[100*2];
        memset(dest, 'C', 100*2-1); /* fill with 'C's */
        dest[100*2-1] = '\0'; /* null terminate */
        /* POTENTIAL FLAW: Possibly copy from a memory location located before the source buffer */
        strcpy(dest, data);
        printLine(dest);
        /* INCIDENTAL CWE-401: Memory Leak - data may not point to location
         * returned by malloc() so can't safely call free() on it */
    }
}

void CWE127_Buffer_Underread__malloc_char_cpy_44_bad()
{
    char * data;
    /* define a function pointer */
    void (*funcPtr) (char *) = badSink;
    data = NULL;
    {
        char * dataBuffer = (char *)malloc(100*sizeof(char));
        memset(dataBuffer, 'A', 100-1);
        dataBuffer[100-1] = '\0';
        /* FLAW: Set data pointer to before the allocated memory buffer */
        data = dataBuffer - 8;
    }
    /* use the function pointer */
    funcPtr(data);
}

#endif /* OMITBAD */

#ifndef OMITGOOD

/* goodG2B() uses the GoodSource with the BadSink */
static void goodG2BSink(char * data)
{
    {
        char dest[100*2];
        memset(dest, 'C', 100*2-1); /* fill with 'C's */
        dest[100*2-1] = '\0'; /* null terminate */
        /* POTENTIAL FLAW: Possibly copy from a memory location located before the source buffer */
        strcpy(dest, data);
        printLine(dest);
        /* INCIDENTAL CWE-401: Memory Leak - data may not point to location
         * returned by malloc() so can't safely call free() on it */
    }
}

static void goodG2B()
{
    char * data;
    void (*funcPtr) (char *) = goodG2BSink;
    data = NULL;
    {
        char * dataBuffer = (char *)malloc(100*sizeof(char));
        memset(dataBuffer, 'A', 100-1);
        dataBuffer[100-1] = '\0';
        /* FIX: Set data pointer to the allocated memory buffer */
        data = dataBuffer;
    }
    funcPtr(data);
}

void CWE127_Buffer_Underread__malloc_char_cpy_44_good()
{
    goodG2B();
}

#endif /* OMITGOOD */

/* Below is the main(). It is only used when building this testcase on
 * its own for testing or for building a binary to use in testing binary
 * analysis tools. It is not used when compiling all the testcases as one
 * application, which is how source code analysis tools are tested.
 */
#ifdef INCLUDEMAIN

int main(int argc, char * argv[])
{
    /* seed randomness */
    srand( (unsigned)time(NULL) );
#ifndef OMITGOOD
    printLine("Calling good()...");
    CWE127_Buffer_Underread__malloc_char_cpy_44_good();
    printLine("Finished good()");
#endif /* OMITGOOD */
#ifndef OMITBAD
    printLine("Calling bad()...");
    CWE127_Buffer_Underread__malloc_char_cpy_44_bad();
    printLine("Finished bad()");
#endif /* OMITBAD */
    return 0;
}

#endif

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaGithub


text:
Q: PHP how to stop email sending out from localhost My question is bit reverse than all on the internet. I have used XAMPP over a long period. When I updated my xampp to 1.8.3 it started to send emails from my localhost. so I moved back to 1.8.1,
recently I had to update to 1.8.3 due to some requirements. PHP version is 5.5.15. It now started to send emails again.
My question is, How can I disable sending emails. and Can I do it on per project base, my application is having actual data on my localhost, and when ever QA team or other developers try updating the orders for a client, my client gets the email alerts, and this is causing lots of trouble.

A: Please use
ini_set('disable_functions','mail');

Or set disable_functions=mail in your php.ini

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


ST. CHARLES, MO - An emotional vigil Sunday night in St. Charles remembered two children, their mother and grandmother who were all shot and killed in their home late Friday night.
The accused killer, the mother`s boyfriend is behind bars facing 15 charges in the case.
Hundreds turned out for the vigil which took place at Harris Elementary School just off Old Muegge Road in St. Charles.
That was where the two children who were killed went to school.
39-year-old Kate Kasten, her two kids, 8-year-old Zoe Kasten, and 10-year-old Jon Kasten, and Kate`s mother 61-year-old Jane Moeckel were all murdered at Kate`s St. Charles home on Whetstone Drive.
Kate`s boyfriend, 46-year-old Richard Darren Emery, who goes by Darren, is now charged with the murders.
Among those at the vigil was Kate`s father Rick Moeckel.
He still can`t believe what took place.
"I think that I probably cried enough yesterday that I was maybe dehydrated at the end of the day. What do you think, what do you do, what do you say, I don`t know," said Moeckel.
Police say they have no motive in the killings.
He says there were no warning signs leading up to the tragedy.
Rick tells us Emery was like a father to the children after their dad, Kate`s prior husband Kory, died of cancer last year.
"It`s hard not to say something bad about Darren but I can`t because there was never an indication that something like this could happen. He always took care, he helped the kids, the kids loved him," explained Moeckel.
People young and old spoke at the vigil.
There was a circle of candles representing a circle of love for all of the victims.
There were also messages of love for the kids written in chalk outside of the school.
Emery, who was caught Saturday morning after a manhunt that included a gun battle with police, is in custody and faces arraignment Monday.
At this point he has no bond.
The school district superintendent says extra counselors will be on hand at Harris Elementary when students return to class from their holiday break on January 8th.


text:
Purchase - $8.00 CEPR Subscribers Download
Understanding Cultural Persistence and Change
CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP12170
See all articles by Paola Giuliano
Paola Giuliano
University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) - Anderson School of Management; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); IZA Institute of Labor Economics
Nathan Nunn
Harvard University - Department of Economics
There are 3 versions of this paper
IZA Discussion Paper No. 10930
Number of pages: 79 Posted: 31 Aug 2017
NBER Working Paper No. w23617
You are currently viewing this paper
Date Written: July 2017
When does culture persist and when does it change? We examine a determinant that has been put forth in the anthropology literature: the variability of the environment from one generation to the next. A prediction, which emerges from a class of existing models from evolutionary anthropology, is that following the customs of the previous generation is relatively more beneficial in stable environments where the culture that has evolved up to the previous generation is more likely to be relevant for the subsequent generation. We test this hypothesis by measuring the variability of average temperature across 20-year generations from 500-1900. Looking across countries, ethnic groups, and the descendants of immigrants, we find that populations with ancestors who lived in environments with more stability from one generation to the next place a greater importance in maintaining tradition today. These populations also exhibit more persistence in their traditions over time.
Keywords: Cultural change, Cultural persistence, weather instability
JEL Classification: N10, Q54, Z1
Giuliano, Paola and Nunn, Nathan, Understanding Cultural Persistence and Change (July 2017). CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP12170. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3008352
Paola Giuliano (Contact Author)
University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) - Anderson School of Management ( email )
National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) ( email )
Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) ( email )
Harvard University - Department of Economics ( email )
Littauer Center


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Q: Get IObservable from all Property Changed events on T.MyProperty in SortedList I have a Class, MyClass that implements INotifyPropertyChanged and has some properties that implement PropertyChanged.  When MyClass.MyProperty changes, PropertyChanged fires as expected.   Another class contains a SortedList<MyClass> .I've tried merging the events into a single observable in the class that contains the SortedSet<MyClass> and subscribing to it, but it doesn't seem to ever have any events.  Here's what I'm trying:
Observable.Merge(MySortedList.ToObservable())
   .Subscribe(evt => Console.WriteLine("{0} changed", evt.MyProperty));

What I'm trying to get is a single observable that contains all of the events from every item in my SortedList<MyClass>.  I've tried using ObservableCollection instead, but that doesn't change anything, nor would it be expected to, really, since it doesn't fire collectionchanged when a property of a contained item changes, anyway.  I can listen to individual elements in SortedList<MyClass> and see the PropertyChanged event fire, but what I want is a single Observable that contains a stream of ALL of the PropertyChanged events from all of the elements in SortedList<MyClass>.
It seems like this should be something fairly easy to do using Rx, but I can't seem to figure out how.

A: I have produced an article for the RxCookBook on this subject that you can find here
https://github.com/LeeCampbell/RxCookbook/blob/master/Model/CollectionChange.md
Further article on PropertyChange notification is here https://github.com/LeeCampbell/RxCookbook/blob/master/Model/PropertyChange.md
It solves what you need by aggregating up the changes from an ObservableCollection<T>. By using the ObservableCollection<T> you also get notifications when items are added or removed from the collection.
If you dont want to use the ObservableCollection<T> (i.e. you only want to track properties at a given snapshot of the collection) then you will need to do something else. First I assume you have an INoftifyPropertyChanged to IObservable<T> extension method or you are just going to use the standard event to IObservable<T> methods.
Next you can project the List of values into a list of change sequences i.e. IEnumerable<T> to IEumerable<IObserable<T>>. This allows you to use Observable.Merge to flatten the list of changes in to a single stream of changes.
Here is a sample if you dont want to use the link above:
void Main()
{
    var myList = new List<MyThing>{
        new MyThing{Name="Lee", Age=31},
        new MyThing{Name="Dave", Age=37},
        new MyThing{Name="Erik", Age=44},
        new MyThing{Name="Bart", Age=24},
        new MyThing{Name="James", Age=32},
    };

    var subscription = Observable.Merge(myList.Select(t=>t.OnAnyPropertyChanges()))
                .Subscribe(x=>Console.WriteLine("{0} is {1}", x.Name, x.Age));

    myList[0].Age = 33;
    myList[3].Name = "Bob";

    subscription.Dispose();
}

// Define other methods and classes here
public class MyThing : INotifyPropertyChanged
{
private string _name;
private int _age;

public string Name
{
    get { return _name; }
    set
    {
        _name = value;
        OnPropertyChanged("Name");
    }
}

public int Age
{
    get { return _age; }
    set
    {
        _age = value;
        OnPropertyChanged("Age");
    }
}

public event PropertyChangedEventHandler PropertyChanged;

protected virtual void OnPropertyChanged(string propertyName)
{
    var handler = PropertyChanged;
    if (handler != null) handler(this, new PropertyChangedEventArgs(propertyName));
}
}

public static class NotificationExtensions
{
    /// <summary>
    /// Returns an observable sequence of the source any time the <c>PropertyChanged</c> event is raised.
    /// </summary>
    /// <typeparam name="T">The type of the source object. Type must implement <seealso cref="INotifyPropertyChanged"/>.</typeparam>
    /// <param name="source">The object to observe property changes on.</param>
    /// <returns>Returns an observable sequence of the value of the source when ever the <c>PropertyChanged</c> event is raised.</returns>
    public static IObservable<T> OnAnyPropertyChanges<T>(this T source)
        where T : INotifyPropertyChanged
    {
            return Observable.FromEventPattern<PropertyChangedEventHandler, PropertyChangedEventArgs>(
                                handler => handler.Invoke,
                                h => source.PropertyChanged += h,
                                h => source.PropertyChanged -= h)
                            .Select(_=>source);
    }
}

Which will output:
Lee is 33
Bob is 24

A: Assuming from your description that you're able to provide this:
IEnumerable<KeyValuePair<string, IObservable<object>>> observableProperties;

You can use this to merge the property observables into a single observable:
IObservable<KeyValuePair<string, object>> changes = observableProperties
    .Select(p => p.Value
        .Select(o => new KeyValuePair<string, object>(p.Key, o)))
    .Merge();

If you find this insufficient, you'll need to give more details about why you can't provide observableProperties.
For example, if I had a class like this:
class MyClass
{
    public IObservable<int> X { get { ... } }
    public IObservable<string> S { get { ... } }
}

I could create observableProperties like this:
var myObject = new MyClass();
var observableProperties = new []
{
    new KeyValuePair<string, IObservable<object>>("X", myObject.X.Cast<object>()),
    new KeyValuePair<string, IObservable<object>>("S", myObject.S.Cast<object>())
};


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> > worthwhile in itself.
Well, bioinformatics codes presumably run mostly integer operations.
approximately the same speed regardless of 32/64 bitness.
> isolate the computation to never spill to disk.
the other side of the equation is more difficult due to more factors.
ATA disks with RAID0 (striping) is a good choice these days.


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Sometimes we get very close-focused, believing meteorologists who tell us that weather on earth is created by the air, by temperature differences that come off the ground, by winds created at ocean surfaces and from gases released by cities and farms. The thought doesn't occur to them and us that perhaps the weather got here first, long in forming, traveling and arriving, before impacting on the rest. Tide and sea are pulled by the Moon and so too the air that rests on the water surface. Land surface temperature differences arise from adjacent oceanic temperatures. By the time temperatures, pressures and wind speeds are measured, weather has already happened. A gas released from a chimney or a cow gets dealt-to immediately by the weather that is about at the time. No tail ever wagged a dog.
Weather cannot arise from air or anything in air. There is weather on other planets, yet no air. Do other planets have weather like Earth? Do they have storms, rain, hurricanes, lightning, or snow? Does Mercury or the Moon have an atmosphere? Is there wind on the Moon?
Weather is a form of tidal disturbance that is caused, like our sea tides, by outside forces and transmits itself through whatever atmosphere a planet has. Most of the planets as well as a few smaller bodies in our solar system do possess an atmosphere. While weather conditions on Earth may seem violent and extreme at times, even the worst weather on Earth is nothing compared to an average day on most other worlds. Let us take a brief tour through the solar system and describe the atmospheric weather we would encounter.
Mercury is the only planet with no real atmosphere to speak of. The world is too small with gravity too weak to hold on to large quantities of atmospheric gas. However, Mercury does maintain a very thin and transitory atmosphere consisting of potassium, sodium, oxygen, helium, hydrogen, and water vapor. The leading theory is that it comes from the solar wind, outgassing due to radioactive decay from the surface, and comet impacts. Mercury does not appear to experience weather.
Venus, meanwhile, has the densest and perhaps most hostile atmosphere of any planet in the solar system. Being closer to the Sun, Venus receives considerably more heating than Earth. The atmosphere is almost entirely carbon dioxide with small amounts of nitrogen and numerous other gases. The dense atmosphere gives the planet a surface temperature hot enough to melt lead and a pressure more than 90 times greater than Earth's. Venus is surrounded by thick permament clouds of sulfur dioxide and sulfuric acid that form high in the atmosphere from volcanic eruptions at the planet's surface, blocking most sunlight from reaching the surface. Temperature remains nearly constant at a blistering 460°C. Wind speeds of more than 300 km/h have been measured at the top of the cloud layer.
Temperature extremes on Earth vary from a peak of 58°C in <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 />Death Valley, California, to -89°C in Antarctica. Wind speeds at the surface can reach nearly 320 m/h (200 mph) in hurricanes or cyclones, the worst storms experienced on the planet. The highest speeds on an average day are high in the atmosphere in a region called the jet stream where sustained winds of 55 to 120 km/h (35 to 75 mph) are typical.
Our atmosphere is higher than we think. The 4th layer of Earth's atmosphere, the thermosphere, ends at approximately 62 miles from the Earth's surface. The whole mantle comprises three quarters nitrogen and a quarter oxygen, with tiny traces of other gases. Very close to ground, between 1-8 miles, water vapor and tiny amounts of natural gases like CO2, less than 5% of the total 'ocean' that sits above earth, move through it with their own cycles like impurities within the sea. As ocean impurities don't change tides these gases don't change weather. But as these are all we see we tend to imagine that they have a greater effect than they actually do. In fact most weather occurs at Boeing 747 level, over systems that cover huge distances, and can be seen from space as giant swirlings orbiting the globe, far enough above Earth so as to have no contact with the ground.
The Martian atmosphere is very thin with a surface pressure less than 1% that of Earth. The predominant substance composing the atmosphere is CO2 with small amounts of nitrogen and other gases. Temperatures on Mars average -46°C. Coldest temperatures can be found at the poles during Martian winter when the surface drops to -87°C, so cold that about a quarter of the atmosphere freezes into slabs of dry ice, increasing the size of the polar ice caps. Wind speeds as high as 480 km/h (300 mph) have been measured racing from the Martian poles towards the equator stirring up great clouds of dust and creating wispy clouds of water ice.
The atmospheres of all four gas giants, Jupiter, Saturn, Neptune and Uranus are generally similar, dominated by hydrogen and helium. Their atmospheres also contain substances like ammonia, sulfur, and methane that create the colors these planets are known for. These worlds are cold given their distance from the Sun, but all are warmer than the solar energy they receive can account for. The largest single storm ever seen is Jupiter's Great Red Spot that has existed at least as long as humans have been able to observe it. This permanent storm is three times larger than Earth and circles Jupiter's southern hemisphere in just six days. Jupiter is also covered by many smaller storms, some of which appear and disappear within hours while others last for centuries. Similar storms have also been observed on the other gas giants, including Saturn's Great White Spot and Neptune's Great Dark Spot, though these are generally much smaller and less stable than Jupiter's mighty tempests.
In addition to the worlds already discussed, several moons circling planets possess atmospheres as well. Most are similar to the virtually nonexistent atmosphere of Mercury. Earth's Moon has a tenuous atmosphere consisting of byproducts from radioactive decay or bombardment of meteorites and the solar wind. The only moon with a fairly thick atmosphere is Saturn's largest satellite Titan. Titan's atmosphere is even denser and produces a greater surface pressure than Earth's. In 2005, NASA successfully dropped the Huygens lander through Titan's atmosphere to touch down on its frozen surface. Huygens detected very little wind on the surface, but speeds as high as 435 km/h (270 mph) were measured at high altitude, similar to our jet streams. The strong winds appear to be generated by tidal forces from Saturn and produce large wind-blown sand dunes forming in parallel west-to-east lines.
This suggests a tidal force for all weather on all planets, rather than to local, close-to-ground causes. For, in addition to the planets, the solar system itself experiences 'weather' of sorts. This weather results from conditions at the surface of the Sun that generates solar flares and the solar wind. These phenomena can affect atmospheric conditions and weather on the planets and may also produce interference in Earth satellites and communications systems. Only when we can think beyond our farting cows, our hazed-over towns, our borders and our globe, can we begin to understand what really controls and influences weather and climate. Huge cosmic forces are involved. We are simply at the end of their ride.


If information and other material from this proceeding are used the following reference should be given: Proceedings of the 2nd International Workshop on Oil Depletion, Paris, France, May 26-27 2003, Edited by K. Aleklett, C. Campbell, and J. Meyer.
….The uh, I think basically that now, that peaking of oil will never be accurately predicted until after the fact. But the event will occur, and my analysis is leaning me more by the month, the worry that peaking is at hand; not years away. If it turns out I'm wrong, then I'm wrong. But if I'm right, the unforeseen consequences are devastating. But unfortunately, the world has no Plan B if I'm right. The facts are too serious to ignore. Sadly the pessimist-optimist debate started too late. The Club of Rome humanists were right to raise the 'Limits to Growth' issues in the late 1960's. When they raised these issues, they were talking about a time frame of 2050 to 2070. Then time was on the side of preparing Plan B. They like Dr. Hubbert got to be seen as Chicken Little or the Boy Who Cried, Wolf….
Matthew Simmons has been a key advisor to the Bush Administration, Vice President Cheney's 2001 Energy Task Force and the Council on Foreign Relations. An energy investment banker, Simmons is the CEO of Simmons and Co. International, handling an investment portfolio of approximately $56 billion. He has served previously on the faculty of Harvard Business School.
[Regarding peak energy] It might turn out actually to be one of the most important topics for the well being of the globe over the next fifty years, which basically (is), "Is the energy glass half full or half empty?" So let me, in the course of the next thirty or forty minutes, just share some of the issues that I think are important.
But the real issue is, basically speaking, does not mean running dry. The debate on how long the dwindling of supplies might take has been extremely controversial. In fact, I'd say that most of the debate has been one-sided.
Optimists argue that the issue is still years away, and to their support is that it has never happened before and it's too often been predicted. And each time the future looks bleak, the optimists argue, it's always darkest before dawn. It is also interesting how many people look at undiscovered reserves and say that we don't know how much we still have left to find, and that's true, but we also, with the evidence of the reserves, there's no guarantee that the reserves are there.
I come back to the basics and say I think that one thing that we do all know is that oil and gas resources are genuinely non-renewable and so someday they will run out. And also, we are using 28 billion barrels a year, that's a lot of energy to be consuming. And peaking, as you all know, is different than running out. Is "peaking" an important question or issue?
First of all, if you start out by saying usable energy is the world's most critical resource then obviously it is an important issue. Without volume energy we have no sustainable water, we have no sustainable food, we now have no sustainable healthcare. And since five-sixths of the world still barely uses any energy it is an important issue. And since five-sixths of the world is still growing fast or too fast it's even a more important issue.
What peaking does mean, in energy terms, is that once you've peaked, further growth in supply is over. Peaking is, also, a relatively quick transition to a relatively serious decline at least on a basin by basin basis. And the issue then is the world's biggest serious question.
Peaking of oil is also probably then assuming peaking of gas too. So is this issue important, I think the answer is an emphatic yes. Why does this issue evoke such controversy? Well, I think for several reasons, first of all, the term "peaking," unfortunately, does suggest a bleak future. It also suggests high future energy prices and neither are pleasant thoughts.
I think it is human nature to say that we like to have pleasant thoughts. And crying wolf is bad business unless the wolf turns out to be already at the front door, and by then, the cry is too late. And crises are problems, by definition, that got ignored. And all great crises were ignored until it became too late to do anything about it. And so if the issue is serious, why are the answers so dissenting. I think the reasons are several-fold. First of all, the data and the methodology to estimate total energy resources is still remarkably hazy and takes a lot of fuzzy logic to get to the bottom line.
Judging the data, for instance, on current decline rates on even fields per basin is very hard to define, and it turns out that peaking is one of these fuzzy events that you only know clearly when you see it through a rear view mirror, and by then an alternate resolution is too late.
Over the course of the last few years, conventional wisdom in the energy business became "do not trust conventional wisdom." The voice of energy, for better or worse turns out to be the International Association of Energy Economists and I will be attending this group's 26th annual meeting next week in Prague.
This group had a mantra throughout the decade of the nineties that growth in energy demand is suspect, that energy supplies are surging, that Moore's Law has brought down semiconductors at a cost so dramatically it will bring energy prices considerably lower, that OPEC is obsolete, and a non-sustainable concept.
Last year, the IAEE had their 25th annual meeting in Aberdeen, and I attended the program. It was really interesting. On Saturday morning, they had 13 of the past 25 presidents talking for the better part of two hours and individually reflecting on the lessons that they had learned over the past 25 years. And I heard 13 consecutive people state…what I heard most, was the word, "conventional wisdom." This was the big mistake I made 25 years ago. Twenty-five years ago, I thought demand was going to go up fast and that was wrong, I thought that oil prices were going to 100, and that was wrong, and I thought the OPEC was omnipotent, and that was wrong, and I thought that supplies basically were going to be a pot of gold and that was wrong, and what I learned personally is never to trust "conventional wisdom." And by the time all thirteen speakers had spoken, it was clear that their belief had become conventional wisdom. It turned out that the generals, as happens so often in the military, were fighting the last war. The big energy mistake that was made, circa 1980-1981, was that oil was going to go to 100, was that the demand growth was insatiable and that OPEC was omnipotent. And what all these people missed at the time was that the oil prices had already grown tenfold; that nuclear energy was at the front door, that the fear of a hundred dollar oil had finally created a conservational efficiency move and that a ten-year E.P. [environmental protection movement] movement created a surplus glut. And preventing making this mistake again became public enemy number one and led a generation of energy experts to mistrust demand, to assume supply growth and just to know that price collapse was just around the door, the corner.
But it is interesting now with the benefits of being in a new millennium, to look back and see what happened to oil demand over the last 30 years. First of all, global oil demand did fall in 1974 and a half way through 1975. But over the course of the first eight years of the 1970's, global oil demand grew significantly. Global oil demand then fell in 1979 through 1983. And so you had five of thirteen years down, but the two events that caused this down demand were a tenfold increase in product and the introduction of the only new energy source native to the 20th century; nuclear. Global oil demand began to grow again in 1983. The collapse of the F.S.U. from 1988 to 1995 created the illusion of global stagnation while the rest of the world's oil demand and energy just grew and grew and grew.
And it's interesting to step back and look at the difference between 1986 when non-FSU oil demand was just under 54 million barrels a day, to 2002, when we crossed 73 million barrels a day, a 21 million barrel a day change during an era that people thought basically that demand growth was over.
And then let's turn briefly to what happened to the world's supply. Well, first the former Soviet Union supply collapsed. Secondly, the North Sea had its second boom. Third, deep water became the new frontier and probably the last frontier, and fourth, OPEC remained the swing producer. If you look at the non-OPEC numbers excluding the former Soviet Union, you have a growth between '86 and 2002 of 8.3 million barrels a day. Now it's interesting to see that global oil growth and demand was 20 and non-OPEC non-FSU growth was 8.3. But if you look carefully at the 8.3, in the first ten years, '86 thru '96, during an era of low oil prices, we grew by 6.7 million barrels a day, and in the last six years, during the era of high oil prices, we grew by 1.5 million barrels a day. So 81% of the last fifteen years growth, came in the, sixteen years growth, came during the era of low prices, and 19% came during the era of high prices. It turns out with just hindsight that we can now clearly see that the growth engine of non-OPEC oil, excluding the former Soviet Union petered out. The North Sea peaked, Latin America excluding Brazil peaked, North America, excluding heavy oil, peaked, Africa excluding deep water peaked, the middle east excluding OPEC peaked, and the F.S.U turned out the be the only lasting pleasant surprise.
Which then raises the following question: Was the F.S.U recovery real and sustainable? In 1998-1999 not a single oil expert assumed that the F.S.U. would suddenly turn around and start creating supplies again. But then low oil prices created through the saga of the missing barrels caused the Ruble to collapse. And subsequently, high oil prices created an F.S.U bonanza, low global prices, and unbelievably high revenues. 67% of the 2000-2003 non-OPEC supply came with the F.S.U.'s oil recovery. Some of this increase was unlikely due to bad data, and some of the increase was a one-time gain.
There has been no significant FSU exploration yet. It's simply too expensive. And logistical bottlenecks create some significant limits to further export growth. So I think it's dangerous to assume that the FSU growth will continue. In the meantime the cost to create new oil supply soared.
While conventional wisdom believes where there's a will there's supply, real costs to maintaining flattening supplies soared. Between 1996 and 1999, the 145 Public E&P companies which were worldwide, spent 410 Billion Dollars to merely keep their full production flat at about 30 Million barrels of oil per day. The Big Five, Exxon, Shell, BP, ChevronTexaco, and Total spent 150 Billion dollars between 1999 and 2002 to barely grow production from 16 billion barrels of oil a day to about 16.6.
The Big Four, excluding Total, because their numbers weren't out yet, between the first quarter of 2002 and the first quarter of 2003 went from 14 million, 611 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day to 14 billion 544. These four companies spent collectively over 40 billion dollars over a 12 month period actually lost 67 thousand barrels a day of total production. So while people were assuming costs would fall the cost to stay in the game went through the roof.
One of the other interesting mantras of the last decade was that technology had eliminated dry holes. Well, we never came close to obsoleting the dry hole. The reason dry holes dropped so much is we drill far less wells. We also stopped doing most genuine exploration. Even projects that are called Wildcats today probably 20 years ago were called modest step-outs. It turns out that now that we look back with good data it takes four straight dry holes, it is still a risky business. The U.S. statistics are appalling. Here basically is the table going back from 1973 to 2002 of U.S. exploratory success rates and their dry holes as a percentage, and this yellow one going through there is 67% meaning that two out of three of those failed. We modestly drop the line from about 75% down to 67% but two third failure rate, we've just killed building dry holes. The North Sea exploration, in appraisal statistics, is still basically about 25% chance of success. Angola, of the major Block 17's has had a string of dry holes. Eastern Canada's recent statistics have been troublesome.
The Caspian Sea, other than one great discovery, potentially has been bad. And even the Middle East is starting to dig a remarkable string of dry holes. The single biggest reason that this supply surge that so many people assumed was happening for so long was that depletion became the missing link. The reason supply flattened out or peaked was not the lack of effort and no new technology. The industry, in fact, had many great successes over the last decade. But they were not about to offset depletion. Oilfield technology created not an easy way to grow supply but a depletion rat race. Smaller new fields were found, technology allowed them to be commercial but we raised the climb rate to an amazing level, and therefore it began to flatten out.
Why is oil depletion so hard to grasp? Well, the definition by itself is hard. Many would hear the term depletion and assume it meant that we ran out, and we obviously never ran out of oil. Depletion data was sketchy at best. It's amazing how hard it is to dig out statistics for, even on a field by field basis, what the net decline is. And the elusive data that you can find is not real depletion but it's the net decline after lots of additional drilling and money is spent to take a natural decline rate that would have been far more drastic if you flattened out. And finally, no one likes to discuss it much because it should mean bad news.
Forecasting next year's decline remains an art form. I don't think anyone has ever been very good at predicting bad news. There are many ways also to slow natural decline, but it takes money and effort, and it's only when you look back after these remediation efforts have been made that it creates real depletion answers. But let me tell you that as you all know, wells, fields, and basins do deplete. Our firm a year ago conducted a very intensive analysis of what was happening to the natural gas supply in Texas by examining the detailed records of the Texas Drill Commission from 50% of the state's production in 53 counties. What we found was amazing. What we found was that in this 53 county area (this is 16% of the U.S. gas supply) the wells drilled in 2001, 2400 wells out of 37,000 wells that are in production created 30% of the total supply, and it turns out that 7% of these 2400 wells, 167 wells, created 49% of the supply and the other 93% of the wells created the remaining 51%. Those big 167 gas wells – a year later, we went back and tested their January 03 production; they had suffered a decline across the board of an average of 82% in a year, so wells do decline these days rapidly. The Cruz Beana field in Columbia, the biggest find in the Western Hemisphere since Prudhoe Bay, in 1991-92 it was still estimated that it could exceed Prudhoe Bay or Hatchet. But it turns out that this field just barely gets 500,000 barrels a day. And in 2002 it's struggling to stay above 200,000 barrels a day. The Forty Field, which BP just recently sold to Apache peaked at approximately 500,000 barrels a day in the middle eighties, and the oil production is now under 50,000 barrels a day. It still produces about 500,000 barrels a day of fluid, but the balance is processed water.
And then you finally have the interesting graph, that's in the papers that I think you should have the last two Super Giant fields ever found. Ironically these two fields, Prudhoe Bay and Samotlor, were both found in about the same crust underneath of the Arctic Ocean. They were just found on two sides of the earth. Both were found within twelve months of one another, '68 and 1967; both were presumed to have 15 to 20 billion barrels of oil. It's interesting to see that Prudhoe Bay, says Platt's Oil reservoir management, they choked off the field at 1.5 million barrels a day and for over 11 and almost 12 years, like clockwork, it produced 1.5 million barrels a day without missing a beat. But in late 1989 the field rolled over and is now producing about 350,000 barrels a day. Samotlor [Russia] had just the opposite experience. They started aggressively water-flooding a very wide field, and it produced peak production at about 3 and a half million barrels a day and then came off like a waterfall and is again down to 325,000 to 350,000 barrels a day. And so when large fields do peak they also do decline. There's no question that when you take 50% of a remaining resource, you tend to alter peak. What's hard is to obtain the right data to know whether you've reached fifty percent. And it's basically that you're looking back through events with hindsight. It turns out that total energy resources, uh, is still a mystery. And a recoverable percentage of resources is also largely a function of cost. The higher the cost, the more you can extend, recovering more and more of the harder and harder to get resources.
And it's also interesting when I think back on this that the technology to gauge resources, absent of seismic, is still effectively 100 years old. We have no better technology today to know how much resources are there before seismic is done than we had 100 years ago. And even after a few of them test their research you still leave many questions, and so it's based on opinions. Let me give you some interesting examples of the uncertainness of this data. I attended a Natural Gas Workshop in Washington, D.C. about three weeks ago and the head of the U.S.G.S. made an interesting presentation about how hard it is to get experts all on the same page even when you have a complete set of data. One of his examples was the [unintelligible] basin in Argentina.
Two hundred and nineteen mature fields. They had a data set that allowed all of the experts to use any one of the seven conventional methodologies to say how many remaining resources are there. And after a weekend of study, the estimates came back with a low of 600 million barrels to recover to a high of 17 billion barrels. It is a mature field area with 219 individual fields. Canada's recent experience in Sable Island is a classic example of how little you sometimes know even after the fields have been in mature stages of production. It turns out that Sable Island looked like a fabulous project through wells one through five, and then six was drilled, and they found it was little, they miscalculated some reserves and so thirty-seven percent of the proven reserves of Sable Island in the last few months were written off. The Leaden Field, which is the largest project in U.K. sector of the North Sea last year; six months into its production the company had new data that highlighted the reserves, the reservoirs complexity so that half the reserves were transferred from proven into probable.
And then another interesting presentation in the natural gas workshop in Washington was on center basin gas which pipes gas in the Green River basin where some new evidence would indicate that we've overstated potential recoverable reserves by three to five times.
All of which highlights how difficult it is to get your hands around how much is left until you're looking back at events with hindsight. Hindsight turns out to be a wonderful, unreliable tool. Some events are unpredictable until after the fact. Some of the classic unpredictable events turn out to be weather, death, one's peak net worth and maybe the future of anything important. It turns out that peaking even for an individual well is only proven after the fact. And predicting peaking of energy has been an elusive art form for a long period. So back to the United States of America and our experiences in oil as a classic example of how hard it is to predict peaks. In 1956 Dr. Hubbert predicted in the early seventies. In the early seventies, the United States would peak. In 1970 it was obvious, he was wrong when the U.S. set a new record, the new U.S. peak. In 1981, what had been 9.6 million barrels by, at its peak was already down to 6.9 million barrels a day after a record drilling boom. And by 2003 this 9.6 billion barrel basin in 1970 is now close to 3 million barrels a day. The U.S. was Saudi Arabia in 1956. We had great statistics, we had total transparency, and yet only one person predicted the peaking in 1970. Did the United States get a lot smarter? Well the U.S. Natural Gas experience is a great new case study.
In 1999 the Natural Petroleum Council projected that supply growth in natural gas would be adequate to increase gas use by 36% by 2010. In 2001 we had a record drilling boom for Natural Gas. This failed to budge supply. In 2003 natural gas clearly, faces a crisis. The United States and Canada are in decline.
What we all missed in 1999 was that no one could come to subtract unconventional supply growth, coal bed methanes, tar sands, deep water associated gas, and these giant gas wells down to 18 to 20 thousand feet vertical, from the conventional base, and discovered conventional base at about fifty feet… (unintelligible) [p]eaked through Europe in the nineties and is now approximately 35 BCF (Billions of Cubic Feet) a day. So it turns out the United States gas experience, uh, has experienced about the same phenomena that oil did 30 years ago.
The North Sea experience is interesting. The North Sea had all the worlds' best operators, state of the art technology. Its peak was assumed to be years away in 1996 and 97. In 1999 the U.K. Sector peaked. In 2002 the New Eastern sector peaked. The North Sea has the world's best field by field production data. Seeing peaking is easier in the North Sea than anywhere else, but few people seem to study the data. Peaking, it turns out, even in the North Sea is easy to ignore. And then there's the experience of the Caspian Sea.
In the early nineties, the Caspian seemed to be the next Middle East. In 2001 we had 20 out of 25 dry holes that dampened the enthusiasm for the Caspian significantly. In 2001 Kashagan was finally discovered, deemed to be the greatest field in the decade. In 2002 BP and Stat Oil quietly sold their 14% of Kashagan for 800 million dollars. In 2003 British Gas put their 17% on the block for 1.2 billion dollars. Which raises, in my opinion, the question, "What do these original parties know about the world's greatest field or do they merely want to spread the wealth? I think what this all means is that non-OPEC oil, particularly outside the Soviet Union, is either peaking as we speak, or has already peaked.
Any serious analysis now shows solid evidence that the non-F.S.U. non-OPEC oil has certainly petered out and has probably peaked. F.S.U.'s supply is suspect or should be. A new frontier is always a possibility, but it is becoming increasingly unlikely now that deep water is here and come and gone.
And serious energy planners need to assume non-OPEC supply is at a plateau. But thank heavens for the Middle East. The big non-Middle East OPEC producers are also past the peak. Algeria and Libya could probably still grow, but they're too small to offset everyone else. And only the Middle East can logically be explained to replace declines elsewhere.
The Middle East's transparency is an oxymoron, but some data shed some light. And so let's spend a few minutes looking at the Middle East, the Promised Land.
Middle East energy is the Promised Land. All roads the roads lead to Rome and to the future of oil and gas Rome is the Middle East.
The Middle East is where we still have abundant reserves. It's still cheap to produce; it's still remarkably unexplored. So if the rest the world is long in the tooth thank Allah for Mecca. But are we so sure this is the truth? It turns out that the Middle East oil and gas so far is not all over the Middle East. The Middle East covers an enormous land mass, but all of the oil and gas as we know it today is compressed into an interesting golden triangle. And all the great finds happened years ago. In the past three decades, exploration success has been modest in the Middle East abyss. Is this because no one looked very hard or because there's not much else to find? Here is the interesting golden triangle of the Middle East; If you start at Kirkuk in the north and you draw a line down through the great oil fields of Iran, going down south and come over six or seven hundred miles picking up the great fields of the UAE and come back up 800 miles to Kirkuk virtually every field of any size between 1909 and the late sixties is probably in that basin.
It turns out that Saudi Arabia has what they thought was a fabulous discovery outside that in 1989. By 2003 one field and five satellites needed gas injected to create flows to get about 200,000 barrels a day. So it's also interesting to take the United States and superimpose this same golden triangle on the part of the United States on the part of the United States I grew up in. It covers most of Arizona and part of Utah, so it's not a huge area. So if all roads lead to Rome then one area, Saudi Arabia, is clearly home port. Saudi Arabia became the most significant oil exporter once the U.S. peaked. Though also not trusted, Saudi Arabia has consistently tried to become the world's most trusted supplier of oil, and they have done that. Saudi Arabia has assumed a virtually limitless amount of cheap oil. But let me tell you about some of Saudi Arabia's oil and gas challenges. In Saudi Arabia, there have been no major exploration successes since the late sixties. Almost all of Saudi's production comes from a handful of old fields. Almost every field has high and rising water pressure. Ghawar, the world's largest field injects seven million barrels a day of seawater to prop up reservoir pressure. And outside North Core hundred barrel [unintelligible] have been very hard to find. Some key fields have never worked out. Others have now watered out. And it takes utter logic to plan for Saudi Arabia's future.
What Saudi Arabia's real energy costs might be is that Saudi Arabia is probably no longer a low-cost producer. Lifting costs, plus, may now rise exponentially. Natural gas parting costs are extremely high and have been elusive. But what is Saudi Arabia's right price for oil? I would argue that no one knows because we lack the data.
But it turns out with a little bit of hindsight that the optimists turned out to be wrong. While the optimist's estimate, the economist rectifies, the debate still rages on; the jury has now rendered the verdict. The optimists have lost. Too much field data now proves their entire thesis was wrong. Supply never surged, demand did grow. But as it grows it still falls. It doesn't prove though that the pessimists were right. The pessimists unfortunately and ironically might also be wrong. Most serious scientists worry that the world will peak in oil supply. But most assume that this day of reckoning is still years away. Many also assume that non-conventional oil will carry us through several additional decades. They were right to ring the alarm bell. But they too might also be too optimistic. Non-conventional oil, unfortunately, is too non-conventional. Light oil is easy to produce and convert into usable energy. Heavy oil is hard to produce and extremely energy intensive and very hard to grow rapidly. It turns out the United States of America has nine fields left that still produce over 100,000 barrels a day. And three of the nine have turned out to be located in California and on average are 103 years old. The reason these fields are still there is that they're very heavy oil. And heavy oil can last forever, but it's very hard to get out of the ground. And it takes a remarkable amount of energy to convert heavy oil into usable energy.
In 1957 the Sputnik woke up to the rest of the world. By 1969 we had a man on the moon. That was not easy, but the job got done. Could an energy Sputnik create a similar wake-up call? If we had such a wake-up call is it too late? Is there a Manhattan Project or an Apollo program that would work? It turns out that reliable energy is the world's number one issue. Creating reliable and affordable energy opens the door to solving the problem of the world's water, food, and healthcare. Without reliable energy all these other needs dull.
The world is still growing. There five billion people on the earth today that are still either maturing in age or yet to be that old. And five billion people still use little or no energy. If the world's oil supply does peak, the world's issues start to look very different. Thank heaven the debate began even if it might have been too late. Thank you. I'd be happy to answer any questions.
Q. Hi. I'm Steve Andrews. Given your message now and given that you've had a half hour in the Oval Office with President Bush, why is there such a disconnect between the apparent policy of the administration and the harsh reality of the message you just gave this audience?
A. I think that there are people within the Bush Administration including the President and Vice President… I think it was unbelievably discouraging to see what occurred after the Bush Energy Plan was introduced. And then after 9/11, the administration got totally distracted in dealing with all the events that they've been dealing with since then. I will tell you that there is a growing genuine concern in Washington about what is happening with natural gas today.
Q. I've been reading your papers for the last two years, and I want to congratulate you on excellent work, and in many cases, it's work that I would have expected from a gas company, not from an investment banker. Last year, you defended the administration's concept of depletion, and you show a real genuine concern for the future of the world and the hydrogen proposal is a fantasy, don't you think it is time for a more liberal energy policy.
A. That would be wonderful, but I think that it is going to take a while. There aren't any good energy solutions for bridges, to buy some time, from oil and gas to the alternatives. The only alternative right now is to shrink our economies. It is a tough question, and I have no answers.
Q. I know that you are on the books to bring back nuclear power back into the industry.
A. Positive news. The Yucca Mountain is not complete. We have to figure out how to remove the nuclear waste. The bad news is that we have had one bad accident in Ohio and one in South Texas in which they found some borax acid that had become powder…is this a defect in the Westinghouse design. These are things which could set nuclear back 5 to 10 years.
Q. Mike Ruppert, From The Wilderness — In the Baker Institute-CFR Report from April 2001, you were dissenting, and you called for a Manhattan Project-type investment, what would that entail?
A. (More laughter) Those are pretty intelligent questions. What I encourage people to think about regarding energy blueprints is to think about them regarding the Marshall Plan. I still believe that there is an urgent need for an energy Marshall Plan. And couple that with a water energy program. I don't know if you can draw any parallels that every place we have energy, we also have terrorism. Other than just musing about the fact that all the last twenty years while we have apparently benefited from these unbelievably low bargain basement prices, the prices were so low that none of the host nations were able to create any semblance of modern society. Over a 20-year period, all of their populations exploded, they all have a high birthrate, very young people, and terrible economies. Unfortunately, we ended up with the door prize that was so low that it was hard for them to maintain a company infrastructure and doing nothing to start rebuilding their societies. I suspect that had they been lucky enough to have had energy two or three times higher and then worked carefully with these producing countries to be enlightened about how, instead of putting in some young and influential leaders to start creating a middle class. And people would have begun focusing more on how to become more prosperous. I guess in hindsight that is easy to say.
© Copyright 2003, From The Wilderness Publications, All Rights Reserved. May be reprinted, distributed or posted on an Internet web site for non-profit purposes only.


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Director, Movies, Script to Screen
Berlinale 2015: Isabel Coixet's Nobody Wants the Night
By Susannah Edelbaum
The 65th Berlinale opening film is a female-led, stressful adventure movie, set around a snowy, ill-fated journey loosely based on the memoirs of Josephine Peary, wife to Robert Peary, who aggressively, inaccurately claimed to be the first man to reach the North Pole in 1909. Director Isabel Coixet's Nadie Quiere La Noche/Nobody Wants the Night is a tribute to Josephine's singleminded journey through godforsaken northern hinterlands to be as close as possible to her husband as he (thinks he) achieves his incredible goal. Josephine (Juliette Binoche) is racist, classist, pigheaded, and viciously bourgeois — imagine a neutral-faced Binoche, hair in an elegant reverse chignon, enjoying records on a gramophone in a snowstorm-battered hut, after multiple animal and human expedition-caused deaths.
And that's just to start. In the face of snowstorms, ice floes, devastating personal news, general disaster, and the broken English and unbending care of an Inuit girl, Alaka (Rinko Kikuchi), Josephine finally gains some empathy, but it's a long journey to that point from the opening scene in which, wearing a fur coat better suited to Park Avenue, she slaughters a polar bear. She joyfully announces "I shot my first bear!" (The coincidence of that line with the film's Berlinale debut was unintentional, Coixet insisted.) With waist-length hair, a chin tattoo, and a broad understanding of nature and humanity that's profoundly deeper than that of educated, wealthy Josephine, the Inuit girl Alaka sticks it out with this piece of work long after the rest of the expedition turns back, for singleminded reasons that tragically dovetail with her companion's.
As a movie that passes the Bechdel Test a few times over — almost all the dialogue is between the two women, while Gabriel Byrne's Bram, Josephine's guide, speaks solely to Josephine, if he says anything at all — questions at the post-premiere press conference tended toward matters of women's roles in film. Or, based on how nonplussed Coixet seemed about this line of questioning, we might say "women's" "roles" "in" "film." Flippant references to the male member seemed to come up in a lot of the answers.
On women in adventure movies
Responding to a male journalist's garbled question regarding how many films at the Berlinale were about women in extreme conditions (or if there would be more films about men in extreme conditions? it was hard to tell) Coixet asked, "we're talking about gender? Do we have to? It's so boring." And then, trying to answer anyway, on women in movies in general — "well we have tits, we don't have a dick, that's how it is. You don't leave your tits and your vagina in your room before going to set." Asked why a minor male character who appears only at the film's end functions as the narrator throughout Nobody Wants the Night, Coixet started talking about one existential aspect and then shifted to another: "the original voiceover was Josephine and I changed it for [the character] Henson. Life is mixed. The world is mixed. We talk so much about gender that we're forgetting other things. I want more action and less words. And more money for women. Not equal pay, more."
On women filmmakers
Later on, someone asked how Coixet, who has shown six previous films at the Berlinale, has managed to be so present in a field where women are so outnumbered by men. First she joked "maybe I have a penis," then referred more seriously to her stubborn nature and willingness to make sacrifices, even those she might regret. Speaking more broadly to all filmmakers, she also pointed out that nobody's movies are as relevant to culture as films were a few decades ago, regardless of the director's gender. "Making movies in our day is a difficult road. As a woman and a director what I want isn't a road with no stones, all I'm asking is that the road I'm on has the same stones as a man's." She espoused, for a bit, on the growing number of women in power in fields beyond film before cutting herself off. "Maybe we'll have a woman president in the States. Maybe Hillary — oh shit Hillary, no."
On spirituality
Maybe it was all the death, but journalists seemed almost as concerned with spirituality in Coixet's tale of adventure and bad decisions as they were with feminism in the film industry. The same journalist who asked about women in Berlinale adventure movies also inquired if anyone had a spiritual experience during the making of the film. Coixet noted that she preferred this question, saying that at one point during shooting "my tears were frozen on my face, and I thought, I like it!" and adding "I'm from Spain, we're not spiritual there."
Though much of it takes place within or near the Arctic Circle, the film was shot all over Europe, often in surprisingly warm conditions. (Byrne told a story about going to find out what a meat refrigerator was doing on set and running into Binoche inside, fully costumed for Arctic conditions, cooling off.) The journalists on hand, naturally, wanted to know what happened on set in their own countries. Unfortunately for the Norwegian who happened to ask, Coixet and her production team "tried to have a Norwegian co-producer," "but nobody really got the script, they have other things to invest in, I guess." Coixet continued, "I have to say, the conditions we had there and the money we had to pay…was completely insane. I think they treated us really bad! I mean the breakfast, Gabriel and Juliette were sitting like school kids in the hotel, and told me 'they don't have coffee for us. They said we can't have breakfast.' My memories of Norway aren't really good. Well, some of the guys who drove the snowmobiles were really nice." Riffing on the coffee in question, or lack thereof, a Bulgarian journalist later thanked Coixet, pointing out that "it's very rare that a Bulgarian coproduction opens a film festival," and asked how the coffee was in her home country. Coixet, suddenly ebullient, effused that "the food was amazing, and the coffee was pretty good. The crew was amazing, we felt at home there [in Bulgaria]. It was such a difference from Norway. I have to say the technicians and all the people, especially in the prop department, were really good. I'll go again. Especially for the coffee."
TAGSBerlinale 2015 Isabel Coixet Nobody Wants the Night
Susannah Edelbaum
Susannah Edelbaum's work has appeared on NPR Berlin, Fast Company, Motherboard, and the Cut, among others. She lives in Berlin, Germany.
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Out On The Town – Florida Real Estate Journal
The restaurant and nightclub business has more than a fleeting connection to the entertainment business. And no one knows this better than Athan "Tom" Prakas, president of The Prakas Group. The 52-year-old owner of the Boca Raton-based commercial real estate brokerage company, which specializes in restaurant and nightclub sales and leasing, represented Danny DeVito as the exclusive broker for the actor's chic South Beach restaurant, DeVito South Beach, which opened in June 2007. Prakas also recently brokered the sale of the glamorous La Vieille Maison, Boca Raton's most famous French restaurant for more than 30 years. ]
A 25-year veteran of the restaurant and nightclub industry, Prakas has owned and operated 27 restaurants, nightclubs and sports bars during his career in Ohio, Atlanta, and South Florida. And this experience guided him toward establishing the Prakas Group in 2000.
Since then, he and his 16 agents/brokers, many of whom are also veterans of the restaurant and nightclub business, have completed more than 200 transactions. Revenues from sales and leasing at the Prakas Group in 2007 were around $70 million, compared to around $60 million the year before. "With the month of January behind us, it seems like our sales are the same as last year," notes Prakas.
Although The Prakas Group is best known for brokering sales and leases for restaurants, nightclubs and other hospitality businesses, only about 30% of sales are from leasing commissions, said Prakas. Another third comes from the sale of commercial properties, land or real estate, rather than a business, and one-third comes from sales of businesses, mostly restaurants and nightclubs.
Prakas has arranged many transactions in South Florida over the last eight years, with some outside of the region, but he is most well-known for his work in Delray Beach. In fact, the Prakas Group has done 42 deals in that northern Palm Beach city and brokered 23 of 26 restaurant leases on Atlantic Avenue in downtown Delray Beach in the last four years.
And last fall, Prakas teamed up with The Finance Group, a mortgage broker that is now a division of the Prakas Group. It
finances deals, mostly in the restaurant and hospitality industry, between $3 million and $10 million.
In 2006, Prakas opened an office in Orlando, and The Prakas Group in January 2008 brokered a lease for a 10,000sf space for Valentino's Vin Bar, a restaurant chain that started in Las Vegas. The Orlando location is the former site of Lee's Lakeside restaurant on the south shore of Lake Eola in downtown Orlando, which has been closed for a couple of years, said Prakas. The restaurant is expected to open in another three to four months.
On Jan. 1, 2008, The Prakas Group became a partner with the Florida Restaurant and Lodging Association. It has taken over the organization's business opportunity Web site, which is designed to help clients who want to sell their small businesses, including restaurants, for less than $150,000. The Web site is called RestaurantBizSales.com and is run by Prakas' wife, Donna. "It was a service we saw a need for," said Prakas, because so many small businesses today get their start on the Internet.
Hortense Leon // Florida Real Estate Journal
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