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Posted by Will Kirkland in Audio Available, Books, History, Nuclear, War
≈ Comments Off on The Doomsday Machine: Daniel Ellsberg — This is Not Fiction
Books, Daniel Ellsburg, Nuclear Weapons, War
So, you like scary stories? Something to keep you awake and afraid? Here's one for you: not thieves in the night or assault on the street, not a 500 point drop in the stock-market or being trapped in an elevator.
Just good old, plain and simple, nuclear Armageddon, throbbing and thrumming, not beneath floorboards but in the design and implementation of command and control systems of fifteen thousand nuclear weapons, 4,400 armed and ready, in 14 countries around the world.
Try Daniel Ellsberg's The Doomsday Machine: Confessions of a Nuclear War Planner, where he sets forth, — no italics, no underlining, no double exclamation marks– from personal experience and technical reportage– what the hell the world has been living with since 1933 when Leo Szilard saw the first signs of nuclear fission on a laboratory oscilloscope.
Best known until now for the revelation of the Pentagon Papers and the long rope of lies tied to the war in Vietnam, Ellsberg was, prior to that, a high level consultant for the Rand Corporation, his specialty being Command and Control Systems and game theory: specifically how were people likely to act in perceived emergency situations with incomplete or possibly faulty information. He himself drafted top-secret nuclear war plans for Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara in 1961
The book in two parts might be considered two books, of linked but somewhat separate matters. The first is about the footstep away the world has been from nuclear disaster, not simply due to the existence of thousands of nuclear armed rockets but because of the very real possibility that accident or misunderstanding could be the cause of their being fired. The second widens the lens to show that the agreements to use nuclear weapons, in reality over Japan, and as a matter of the highest planning for future wars, did not arise suddenly with the advance of scientific-technical ability. A long preparation of bombing civilians had already prepared the readiness.
The book serves another conjoined purpose. One is as a confession and a mea culpa for his own slowness to recognize the full danger that he was privy to, of nuclear danger and, his unwitting contribution to the Cuban Missile Crisis. Allied to that, his increasing sense that secrecy, designed to protect us, has been responsible for nearly killing us. Only one man, as far as he has been able to find out, ever quit the U.S. H-Bomb program, though over 100 wrote a letter cautioning the President about its dangers. That one man, Ellsberg discovered late in life, was his own father — moved by John Hersey's famous Hiroshima, which his son had pressed him to read in 1947."
From the earliest numbers he sets out – the 1961 estimates of death from a U.S. all-out nuclear attack on the Soviet Union and China –we are unsettled. Perhaps we've read such numbers before. Let's read them again
275 million deaths at the moment of impact were estimated;
By six months later another 50 million;
Add 100 million from fallout, depending on prevailing winds;
Another 100 million in neutral countries such as (all of Finland, Sweden, Austria…;
The total deaths, estimated by the Joint Chiefs of Staff, was 600 million; not casualties, deaths.
This was 1961; the population of the entire United States was 180 million.
And, these estimates were made before the planners were aware of the phenomenon of "nuclear winter," now know to almost certainly follow such attacks.
But wait. There's more!
Contrary to what most believe, that the enormous numbers of atomic weapons are to enable the U.S. to survive a hostile attack and attack back –thereby being a "deterrent"– the actual reason is, written and confirmed many times, not simply to survive a first strike by an enemy, but to survive their counter-strike following a U.S. first strike … to have second strike ability which, in the theory, would be the deterrence needed. They can't get away with even responding to our first attack — contrary to everything the American people have been told since Harry Truman was President
We have also been told since the time of Truman, that the only person who can initiate a nuclear strike is the President himself; that he has a button which he and only he can push. Not so. Nuclear first-strike authority, from the presidency of Eisenhower, has been designated down to, for example, a Major at a forward base in South Korea, under circumstances as common as a communication failure between that base and Washington. In fact, Ellsberg was once questioned by General Curtis LeMay why nuclear authority should be in the President's hands at all — "an untested politician;" it would be more appropriately be in Air Force (LeMay's) hands.
The United States continues to reject a pledge against First Strike Use. For all presidents, "I will take no cards off the table."
All of this is revealed the Introduction alone.
The subsequent chapters give rich details of Ellsberg's ten years with RAND, his time in the Kennedy White House and close collaboration with war-planners, in part trying to roll-back the "all or nothing" strategy for nuclear threat, held dear by the highest military authorities. Why was China to be bombed if a missile was perceived to be in-coming from Moscow?
He discovered that contrary to explicit treaty guarantees, not only did U.S. navy ships regularly enter Japanese waters without off-loading nuclear weapons, but a nuclear loaded LST (The USS San Joaquin County) was stationed in Iwakuni, Japan, only 40 miles from Hiroshima. When under-secretary of defense Paul Nitze persuaded Secretary of Defense McNamara to order the ship not to return to Japan from repairs in Okinawa, the resistance from the Navy, in the person of Admiral Arlegih Burke was swift and furious. Kennedy backed off. The nukes continued to be held in Japanese waters for several years.
As the accounts accumulate it is hard to know which what to fear more. Here is just a small sample;
The General War plan by the Joint Chiefs of Staff was kept deliberately hidden from government civilians, including the Secretary of Defense and President Kennedy;
The General War Plan (JSCP) had no plan other than all out nuclear attack should the USSR attack more than a brigade sized formation. That all out attack included attacking China;
No other plans, for non-nuclear response, were drawn up as being
Too expensive — Eisenhower
Too complex and confusing — war planners;
Inter-service rivalry not only set up budgetary battles but drove strategic choices, regardless of actual, thought-out strategic planning, including deliberate over-statement of Soviet nuclear threat in order to draw dollars to those controlling the U.S. weapons, principally the Air Force.
For example, the estimated death-and-casualty projections did not include death by firestorm, known from Japan to be the biggest killer. Why? Because greater projected deaths would mean fewer missiles and warheads were needed, and affect military budget requests.
The missile crisis in Cuba was initiated by Khrushchev, to convince the Polit-Bureau that he was no weakling after a humiliating revelation by Kennedy that the U.S. knew the Soviets had only 4 ICBMs, not the much larger number being claimed;
There are no plans for a call-back order for nuclear armed weapons, once beyond certain lines
Even where, in a distributed command and control system, two officers must simultaneously agree that a threat warranting a nuclear response exits, that control is suborned. The officers are proud that if one is at a dental appointment the other knows how to unilaterally send nukes on their way
Ellsberg's account of his prominent role in the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962, and how frighteningly close the world came to nuclear war, will be interesting to many readers. Some will remember the Berlin Airlift (one of the first world-events that I, at five years old, was aware of,) and shudder to learn that if the Soviets had tried to enforce the blockade against the U.S. airlifts, the U.S. had only one response: go nuclear.
In some ways, part two of the book is even more interesting, and thoughtful. A strong case is made that the willingness to accept, indeed hardly to mention, the hundreds of millions of deaths predicted in nuclear war was not born with the bombs themselves.
Led by Great Britain, at the beginning of WWII, the general agreement among nations, codified in 1938, that civilians were not a proper target for war, began to be ignored. Before the war broke out, despite the agreement of all parties to FDR's plea to ban bombing of civilians, both England and the US, but not Germany were designing and building long-range high-altitude bombers which were incapable of precision bombing. When German planes bombed central London instead of the intended factory target several miles away in August, 1940, the British sent retaliatory planes over Berlin. The air-war was on. Pushed by aggressive advocates for air power like British "Bomber" (sometimes, "Butcher") Harris and American Billy Mitchell, the purposeful fire-bombing of Dresden, Hamburg and other German cities was undertaken; in the Pacific some 67 Japanese cities were saturation bombed, including the massive Tokyo firestorm in March, 1945.
We also are made privy to the decision-by-decision growth of the "Doomsday Machine. " This is not a single bomb, even an H-bomb, some 1,000 times as powerful as the two which have been dropped. It is the entire apparatus of planning and underlying assumptions about human behavior. One of the principal goals of a nuclear attack is to "decapitate" the command and control centers. With whom would we then negotiate, asks Ellsberg reasonably. Since both super powers recognize the problem of decapitation, both have dispersed and decentralized the authority to authorize, and actually pull the trigger, of nuclear war — thereby make less likely the effectiveness of MAD (Mutually assured Destruction) from acting as a deterrent.
As he says, the Kubrick film, "Dr Strangelove," was less a science-fantasy than a documentary.
Importantly, he shows the untruth of the claim that nuclear weapons have only been used twice. In fact they have been used often, just as a gun is said to be "used" in a robbery, or other act of compulsion. He lists twenty-five times nuclear threats have been used to effect actions the U.S. desired — under every president up to the present.
For a book that sometimes reads a bit wonkishly, with technical and military acronyms — NATO, CincPac, and JCS not to mention LST, SIOP and JSCP it is refreshing to hear Ellsberg's strongly felt and strongly voiced moral concerns. Clearly, his knowledge and the fear that comes with it, has been a burden not only to carry but to painfully re-create after the loss of source documents so many years ago. I hear a relief, even if only partial, of finally sharing what he knows, and of having completed a felt obligation to the rest of us — dearly loved, and completely unknown.
"The planned slaughter of hundreds of millions of Soviets and Chinese, twenty time the staggering deaths of Soviet citizens in World War II, along with an equal number of our allies and citizens of neutral countries, … exposed a dizzying irrationality, madness, insanity at the heart and soul of our nuclear planning and apparatus"
Though not extremely hopeful, he does describe a number of things that can be done, and should be as fast as possible:
The U.S. should adopt and sign on to a no-first-use policy;
Land-based ICBMs should be eliminated;
The current U.S. arsenal should be pulled of its long-time, and still current hair-trigger
Above all, Ellsberg hopes that his book, and growing awareness will contribute to the growth of an insistent, knowledgeable and powerful citizen movement to bring a change in shallow beliefs and national policies. He cites a source to say the President Richard Nixon, after pushing Henry Kissinger on the possibility of nuclear bombing of Hanoi, backed off — aware, and afraid, that two million citizens might take to the streets.
Please read this book. Or listen to a very good reading by Stephen Cooper, at Audible.
For more on Ellsberg's book and the nuclear experience and danger of our age see my posting here.


And yes, I am still wearing the Sasy Chic shoes from Aphrodite Creations. They're just the perfect things for summer.
The duchess and empire tops.
The top is called Trina from Tart. The pants are from Renegade. The skin is a group gift from Chai. And the jewelry is one of Earthtones Vintage Prints. You make a purchase of 100L or more and send Lucas Lameth a notecard with the name of which one you want.
You are currently viewing the archives for May, 2008 at SL Fashion Notes.


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The paradox of one-sided vs. two-sided tests of significance
Author: Georgi Z. Georgiev, Published: Aug 6, 2018
A lot of people find as paradoxical the claim that a one-sided test of significance at a given p-value offers the same type I error guarantees as a two-sided test that produced the same p-value. Similarly, it is found paradoxical that a one-sided confidence interval at a given significance level has the same coverage probability as a two-sided interval at the same significance level.
The paradox for the significance test can be briefly stated as:
Given the outcome of a randomized controlled experiment for the effect of some intervention one can reject the claim that there is no difference between the treatment and control group in one direction with less uncertainty than one can reject the claim that there is no difference between the two groups at all.
How can one be less certain that there is any difference than that there is difference in a specified direction? Or as Royall [1] puts it: how can we conclude neither A nor B, but not conclude "not-A" (see "Solving Royall's version of the paradox" below). From this paradoxical understanding of the relationship between one-sided and two-sided tests follow a lot of misconceptions and misunderstandings hence why it is important to address it.
Detailed example of the "paradox"
We are using a randomized controlled experiment to test/estimate the effect of an intervention on a given population by drawing two random independent samples of equal size n from it: A (control group) and B (treatment group). Let us say that we have determined that the absolute difference between the means of some characteristic of group A and group B is a good measure for the effectiveness of our intervention. Therefore, if we denote the mean of A with µA and the proportion in B as µB we are in fact interested in estimating δ = µB – µA and the uncertainty inherent in that estimation.
Assuming the standard deviations of µA (σA) and µB (σB) are known or estimated, we can calculate the pooled standard error of the mean σδ. Using the Central Limit Theorem, we know that the standard error is asymptotically normally distributed, so we can calculate critical regions for the standardized Z statistics (or T statistic for small sample sizes) corresponding to a subjectively determined acceptable level of type I error: α.
If we state our hypothesis test as follows:
H0: δ = 0
H1: δ ≠ 0
then we are working with a point null and a two-sided alternative hypothesis. We define two critical regions, each on one tail of the normal distribution and each corresponding to α/2. If we take the commonly used value of α = 0.05, and a normal distribution (Z) this results in critical values of -1.96 and +1.96 for the Z statistic. That is, we would reject H0 only if Z < -1.96 or Z > 1.96.
At the same time, if we state our hypothesis test as follows:
H0: δ ≤ 0
H1: δ > 0
then we are working with a null covering one side and zero, and a one-sided alternative. The critical region corresponding to α = 0.05 is defined by Z > 1.6449.
After observing a Z score of 1.81 under a two-sided hypothesis (point null of no difference) we cannot reject the null (1.81 < 1.96). However, if we are interested in rejecting a one-sided null / accepting a one-sided alternative hypothesis we can reject the null with a fair amount of comfort (1.81 > 1.6449).
For many the above is enough to conclude that a one-sided test is less-trustworthy and leads to claims that one-sided tests produce more false positives, more type I errors, biased results, that they have insufficient rigor, that they are less stringent etc. when compared to two-sided tests.
This is not the case, however as both tests provide the same error guarantees against an incorrect rejection of the null hypothesis, at the specified level α . This is despite the fact that if reporting exact probabilities (as one should) the p-value for the one-sided test will be smaller than that of the two-sided test.
Resolving the one-sided paradox
Any paradox can be resolved by examining the premises and finding them to be faulty or imprecise. The one-sided vs. two-sided test paradox is easy to solve once one defines their terms precisely and employs precise language.
First, let us adopt proper notation. The statistical hypotheses for the one-sided tests will be denoted by H1 while the notation in the two-sided case will be H2. Therefore, we state the hypotheses for the two-sided case as:
H20: δ = 0
H21: δ ≠ 0
and for the one-sided case as:
H10: δ ≤ 0
H11: δ > 0
Restating the sentence that is paradoxical by replacing "the null" with the proper notation, we get:
"After observing a Z score of 1.81 if we are using a two-sided hypothesis (point null of no difference) then we cannot reject H20 (1.81 < 1.96). However, if we are using a one-sided hypothesis we can reject the null H10 with a fair amount of comfort (1.81 > 1.6449)."
Replacing "the null" with the proper notation allows us to see that there is no real paradox since we refer to different statistical null hypotheses: one in the case of a two-sided vs. another one in a one-sided test of statistical significance. As the p-value is constructed under a different null under which the proportion of possible outcomes that can falsify it has been decreased, a different critical region of the standardized Z statistic has the same probability of being observed assuming a true null.
Put otherwise, with a two-sided alternative, the null is very specific (point null) so more of the possible observations can happen despite it being true, making it necessary to gather more data in order to reject it at a given significance level. With a one-sided alternative, the null is broader and so fewer (half, for a symmetrical error distribution) of the possible observations can happen despite it being true therefore we need less data to reject it at the same significance level.
The same logic is generalizable for the case of a left side alternative (less than) as well as across a variety of statistical tests, including cases where the null includes a difference in one direction, e.g. if the null is that the effect is larger than some value ɛ the null will be H10: δ ≤ 0 + ɛ and the alternative H11: δ > 0 + ɛ.
The same logic is fully applicable to one-sided intervals vs. two-sided intervals. If one is interested in an upper or lower boundary that limits the true value from above or below with a given probability, then a one-sided confidence interval should be used. If one is interested in an interval covering the true value XX% of the time without caring to make statements about a value being less than or greater than an interval bound, a two-sided one is appropriate.
If you still find the paradox confusing, read on to see the effect of changing the statistical hypothesis in more detail as well as a metaphor putting it in more practical terms.
Changing the statistical hypothesis: effect on sampling space and outcome space
One can change their statistical hypothesis (question, inquiry) and still get a valid result due to the nature of the question asked. Contrary to what some sources claim, there is no need to pre-specify the directionality of the test, nor is a one-sided test only applicable if only outcomes in one direction are possible.
First, we should realize that the question asked does not have any effect on the sampling space. The fact that the researcher is hoping for, expecting or predicting a result in one direction or the other does not affect the possible values of the variable of interest.
The question asked defines how the outcome space is partitioned: it defines which observed values can be used to reject the null with a given level of rigor. In order to preserve a desired (low) probability for falsely rejecting the null hypothesis when it is true, if the null hypothesis is changed the same must happen with the rejection regions for falsifying it. The probability of observing such an extreme result assuming a true null (a.k.a. p-value) remains the same in all cases. This is an illustration of the above statements:
The restriction on the outcome space forces the entire rejection region on one side of the distribution, resulting in a lower absolute critical value of Z. By lowering the critical value |Z| for the one-sided test, the area under the curve continues to reflect the same proportion of the total sample space, thus type I error control is maintained at the nominal level α.
Here is the caveat. Similar to how when testing multiple subgroups, if we find a statistically significant difference in only one subgroup of the population we cannot claim a statistically significant result for the whole population, we cannot turn a directional claim into a general claim for difference at the same significance level or with the same p-value. So, given some datum we can say "we reject that X is worse than or equal to Y, p = 0.01", but we cannot say "we reject that X is not different than Y, p = 0.01". We would need to say "we reject that X is not different than Y, p = 0.02" instead. Narrowing the claim (null hypothesis to be rejected) results in larger uncertainty given the same set of data.
A useful metaphor
I find this weight measurement metaphor useful in illustrating the paradox. Say we have a scale and we know that 68.27% of the time it results in a measurement that is no more than ±1kg off the true weight. Thus, assuming a normal distribution of error, the scale's standard deviation is 1kg. Suppose the allowed risk for any weight claim we make is 5%, corresponding to 1.644kg critical value for a one-sided claim and 1.96kg critical value for a two-sided claim.
We measure John's weight and the scale shows 81.8kg. Following this measurement, one can reject the claim "John weighs less than or equal to 80kg" at the 95% significance level (1.644kg < 1.8kg), but one cannot reject the claim "John weighs exactly 80kg" at the 95% significance level (1.96kg > 1.8kg), thus we have the "paradox".
Because under the second claim a scale indication of say 78.2kg, which has a chance to happen due to random error even if John truly weighs exactly 80kg, would count against the null of "John weighs exactly 80kg". The same 78.2kg measurement would not count as evidence against the one-sided null of "John weighs less than or equal to 80kg". In order for the rejection region of the "exactly 80kg" claim to reflect the same error of probability as the "greater than 80kg" claim it has to be adjusted so that the absolute critical value versus that of the one-sided claim is larger.
Note that we can just as easily state that we cannot reject the claim "John's weight is less than 80kg" at the 95% significance level (the one-sided test in the opposite direction) without any compromise of integrity or validity of the results.
The scale is obviously the statistical test of our choice and it remains uninterested in what claims any of us predicts, expects or wants to make after the weighing. The rest of the metaphor should be obvious.
Solving Royall's version of the paradox
We can take a slightly different approach in resolving the paradox as presented by Royall (1997): "Statistical Evidence: A Likelihood Paradigm" [1]. In a chapter on Fisher's significance tests, sub-chapter 3.7 "The illogic of rejection trials", Royall tries to use the "paradox" of one-sided vs two-sided tests in arguing against the logic of NHST:
"Thus, a value x for which α/2 < Pr0(X ≥ x) ≤ α represents strong enough evidence to justify rejecting the composite hypothesis that either θ = ½ or θ < ½, but it is not strong enough evidence to justify rejecting the simple hypothesis that θ = ½. We may conclude (at significance level α) that both θ = ½ and θ < ½ are false, but we may not conclude that θ = ½ alone is false. We may conclude 'neither A nor B' but we may not conclude 'not-A'. Odd."
He goes on by stating it in terms of the alternative hypothesis:
"If, when we reject θ = ½, we are concluding that either θ = ½ or θ < ½, then clearly this is justified by any evidence that justifies the stronger conclusion that θ ≥ ½. That is, if the evidence justifies the conclusion that A is true, then surely it justifies the weaker conclusion that either A or B is true." (emphasis mine)
There is a flaw in Royall's logic in that he seems to forget that a p-value is a probability calculated under the null hypothesis and it applies only to that specific composite or point null for which it was calculated and no other. One cannot simply break down the null into parts and claim that a rejection of the whole should lead to a rejection of each of the sub-nulls.
It is thus false to say that "We may conclude (at significance level α) that both θ = ½ and θ < ½ are false" if this implies the two statements are treated as separate null hypotheses. Each subset of the null is a null in its own right for the purposes of making inferential claims, thus requires a separate p-value calculation.
By rejecting "θ = ½ or θ < ½" we are not rejecting "θ = ½" (A) and "θ < ½" (B) separately, one after another, but their union as an integral whole ("θ ≤ ½"). Stating this clearly resolves the apparent paradox, as shown below where I examine the two possible logical statements that Royall might have made in a formal way and find that neither leads to the paradox.
The first way to read Royall's statement "concluding neither A nor B" is as concluding "not (A or B)" (A ∪ B), which is exactly what we do by using a one-sided test. "not-A" (A) does not automatically follow from "not (A or B)" since A ∪ B ≡ A ∩ B (the De Morgan's laws). There is nothing "odd" about that.
If, however, we translate Royall's statement to (A ∪ B) instead, then not-A (A) indeed follows from concluding it, but it no longer corresponds to a one-sided test. Furthermore, we do not need any data to conclude (A ∪ B) as it is true by definition since A and B are mutually exclusive in our case: from A ∪ B ≡ A ∩ B we observe A ∩ B to be an empty set and the negation of an empty set is always true so no statistical test is needed to support this claim.
So, if we read Royall's premise as describing correctly the conclusion of a one-sided test as "not (A or B)" then "not-A" does not automatically follow since B could be false instead. If we read it, ungraciously, as "not A and not B" then we are no longer describing a one-sided test but a situation which does not require any test to make a conclusion. "not-A" is then trivially true, but irrelevant to statistical inference of any kind.
On the graph you can see the logic above represented visually:
Royall's logic in the second part of the citation is reversed: it is a stronger (not weaker) conclusion to reject θ = ½ (two-sided test) than it is to reject θ ≤ ½ (weaker, less precise claim, not stronger). This is perhaps due to failure to appreciate that any acceptance of an alternative is a consequence of the rejection of a specific null and it is the precision of the rejected null that determines if a claim is stronger or weaker.
It should be clear from the discussion and graphs that rejecting a point null is a stronger (more precise) statement about where the true effect is probably not, compared to the weaker (less precise) statement that the true effect is probably not in half of the possible values. Rejecting a point null means considering a lot more (double) of the possible observations as evidence against it, while rejecting a one-sided null means considering a lot fewer of the possible observations as evidence against it. Requiring the rejection of a more precise null opens up possibilities to reject it (extends the rejection region in the outcome space) and the critical regions need to be adjusted to account for that.
In terms of the alternatives, accepting a one-sided alternative is a less precise (weaker, not stronger, as Royall states) claim than accepting a two-sided alternative hypothesis. Less precise does not mean less valid, less certain or more suspect, it is just a synonym for "broader", "wider", etc.
Given the above objective statements are easily provable through simple simulations I was driven to search for reasons why this claim seems paradoxical and why there is such stigma against one-sided tests in certain research circles. If you are interested in my thoughts on the subject check out "Is the widespread usage of two-sided tests a result of a usability / presentation issue?"
But what if the result was in the other direction?
This is a question often posed by people who entertain the paradox and so I've decided to include a brief comment on it. If the magnitude of the difference in the direction covered by the one-sided null is of no interest, we just fail to reject the null or we can accept the null given that the test had enough statistical power (sensitivity).
If the extent of the difference covered by our original null is of interest, then we can simply reverse the null and alternative and make a claim about an effect in the other direction. In our example we would change H10 and H11 to be:
H10: δ ≥ 0
H11: δ < 0
There are no violations of error control in this case, despite some claims to the opposite.
What proponents of such claims seem to forget when they talk about increased errors is that the claim is no longer for H20 essentially failing to replace "the null" with the correct statistical hypothesis in the "paradoxical" statement above. If you do that it is only natural that you will continue to worry about the two-tailed non-directional hypothesis while the researcher is only making claims about an effect in one direction, even though it might not be the original direction we expected results in. As already demonstrated, our expectations have no effect on the sample space and thus on the frequency of outcomes. Asking a different question from the same data affects only the outcome space and is thus safe to do without the need for any adjustments or precautions.
If we return to the scale's metaphor above, we would have done both one-sided tests in sequence and discovered the first one to be non-significant while the second one to be significant. That would have had no effect on the accuracy of the scale or the error measurement associated with whatever claim we decide to make.
I'm grateful to Prof. Daniel Lakens for sanity-checking an earlier version of this article and his useful recommendations.
[1] Royall R. (1997) "Statistical Evidence: A Likelihood Paradigm", Chapman & Hall, London, page 77
Enjoyed this article? Please, consider sharing it where it will be appreciated!
Cite this article:
If you'd like to cite this online article you can use the following citation:
Georgiev G.Z., "The paradox of one-sided vs. two-sided tests of significance", [online] Available at: https://www.onesided.org/articles/the-paradox-of-one-sided-v-two-sided-tests-of-significance.php URL [Accessed Date: 02 Feb, 2023].
Georgi Z. Georgiev is an applied statistician with background in web analytics and online controlled experiments, building statistical software and writing articles and papers on statistical inference. Author of the book "Statistical Methods in Online A/B Testing".
One-sided statistical tests are just as accurate as two-sided tests The paradox of one-sided vs. two-sided tests of significance Directional claims require directional statistical hypotheses A p-value is meaningless without a specified null hypothesis When is a one-sided hypothesis required? 12 myths about one-tailed vs. two-tailed tests of significance Examples of improper use of two-sided hypotheses Fisher, Neyman & Pearson - advocates for one-sided tests and confidence intervals Proponents of one-sided statistical tests Examples of negative portrayals of one-sided significance tests Is the widespread usage of two-sided tests a result of a usability issue? Reasons for misunderstanding and misapplication of one-sided tests Refining statistical guidelines and requirements for one-sided tests The hidden costs of bad statistics in clinical research
On one-sided statistical tests
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Copying photos from a DVD to my computer?
I have a dvd of photos I made with Windows live movie maker. I no longer have the photo files on my computer. Is it possible to copy the photos back onto my computer from the DVD so that I can save the files for a new movie?
Yes, you should be able to insert the DVD into your computer's DVD drive and it will automatically recognize that there are photos on it, and will ask you if you want to import them.


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We also remove snakes but only if they are dead. In fact, if there is an active snake anywhere around or inside your property, it's best to find an alternative method to remove it without killing it. As reptiles are a natural form of pest control and are highly essential for the natural environment.
NOTE: We don't remove dead animals of a bigger size such as cows, horses, deer, pigs. If this is the case, please report the problem to your local council.
To ensure complete dead creature removal which is safe for both – the consumer also the professional himself, we've come up with few steps of operation. The service is completed efficiently. Also, no evidence of this animal's carcass is left behind. If it's a dead dog or remains of a rodent after rat control, our experts treat the dead animal with care until it's entirely disposed.
Proper gloves are used to prevent disease transmission when shifting the dead creature. The material is then nicely placed in a sealed plastic sack to avoid contact with anything on your property.
This animal carcass is transported to an incinerator anywhere it gets degraded to ash at a big temperature.
Once we receive your request, a professional will arrive at your home, armed with functional equipment including bags to collect your deceased pet. This animal will be taken to the pet crematorium in a case with a solid lid. Once the cremation method has finished, the ashes of your pet will return to us plus we'll safely handle them back to you.
All laws related to the pet cremation ceremony will be strictly you ask, as we understand how vital also emotional this time is to anyone who's been a pet owner. Leave this offensive job to our expert pest exterminators.
Call and ask more about our prices and get an estimated quote!
Losing a pet or going across a dead bird or another animal in the yard isn't something we like to think about. Understanding how to dispose of a dead creature properly and taking care of it right away is critical, however, for your well-being and the health of everyone else. Here are some essential guidelines.
If at all feasible, don't touch a dead animal or at least use gloves. For tiny creatures like a dead bird on your doorstep, you can use a spade to pick it up and put in a plastic bag.
Small pets, like fish and hamsters, are simple to dispose of if you have a back garden. You'll have to check your local regulations for the conditions for burial. State, county, or town code, like this Missouri statute, instructions tell you how deep you need to bury the dead creature (generally at least 3 or 4 feet) also other requirements.
When digging, watch out for utility power lines, also avoid occupying an animal near any water source or city likely to flooding.
Wrap the body in a plastic container, then put it in a case and bury in the deep hole. You may want to put some paving rocks above the spot to deter hunters and plant a shrub or tree to mark the place.
Refuse disposal: For other short or even average size creatures, you can place the body in a sealed plastic bag and then in a junk bag for rubbish collection. If it's going to be a while before pickup. , some specialists suggest putting the body in the freezer until pickup time. Again, check by your town's hygiene guidelines; Normally you have to place each animal in a garbage bag marked "dead dog" or "dead cat" for disposal.
Use our dead animal distribution services form to request late animal departure. We also will remove dead animals from your curb. For more complex dead wildlife departure, like getting rid of dead bird hidden in your walls, we can help so call now!
We are on call 24 hours a day to help with any Dead Animal Removal!


And they will turn away from hearing the truth, but on the other hand they will turn aside to myths.
With complaints that the text of the former theme was hard to read, I've reverted, for now, to an older theme I once used, Writr, until the next spiffy one appears. This theme has a heavy text font, which ought to take care of any problems at the moment.
A writer cannot have the medium mess up the message. Nope, so we must deal quickly with that.
Background images do not show up well in this theme, but we'll make do.


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Past Imprefect
Past Imperfect — David Olsen
From the author of Unfolding Origami, Past Imperfect is a three-part exploration of the imperfections and failures of memory. The first section, 'The Edge of Forgetting' is concerned with the half-remembered and the futility of efforts to give memories permanence.
The second section, 'Penumbra', deals with failures of neglectful public policy, particularly with respect to social injustice and issues of war and peace.
In the third part, 'Available Light', works of art are considered as efforts to express the workings of imagination and preserve creations of consciousness. This section is more than a collection of ekphrases; it is, instead, an evocation of 'The Agony and the Ecstasy' of a life in the arts.
This is an assured collection from an accomplished poet.
David Olsen, winner of the 2013 Cinnamon Press Poetry Collection Award and a professionally produced playwright, was formerly an energy economist, management consultant, and newspaper essayist. His poetry chapbooks include Sailing to Atlantis (2013), New World Elegies (2011), and Greatest Hits (2001). His poems have appeared in numerous journals and anthologies in the US and UK. Find out more about David's poetry on his website.
David is a graduate in chemistry of University of California, Berkeley, and holds an MA in creative writing from San Francisco State University. He has lived in Oxford since 2002.


Still a few notes to take care of from last Thursday night's North Highline Unincorporated Area Council meeting. First - King County Sheriff's Captain Carl Cole's briefing on area crime, ... Read more..
That's tonight's late update from KING 5 News, which reports that three suspects are now in custody in connection with the burglary that led to a wild, chopper-enhanced, roadblock-requiring search ... Read more..
(photo courtesy D. Groves) Over at West Seattle Blog, we reported for much of the night on a hit-run crash that damaged (and in at least one case totaled) several cars ... Read more..
Heard about this via Twitter (where you can follow WCN at @whitecenternow) and got the details in e-mail from Hang Around Bar and Grill (formerly The Wall, as reported here ... Read more..
Southwest Precinct Community Police Team Officers Adonis Topacio and Jill Vanskike were both at the White Center/South Delridge Community Safety Coalition meeting Thursday night to pass the baton, in a ... Read more..
In King County Superior Court on Monday, 8 years was the sentence for a White Center man who pleaded guilty to manslaughter in the death of his wheelchair-using girlfriend - ... Read more..
According to King County Sheriff's Office spokesperson Sgt. John Urquhart, the search around 16th/102nd is for a man who ran when a bail bondsman tried to arrest him - as ... Read more..
View Larger Map From Sgt. John Urquhart at King County Sheriff's Office: A 41 year-old woman shot her 55 year-old boyfriend at least twice with a handgun last night (October 1st). ... Read more..
KING5 tells the story, surveillance video and all - see it here. Read more..
First of three reports from last night's North Highline Unincorporated Area Council meeting: King County Sheriff's Deputy Jeff Hancock briefed the group on crime in its coverage area over the preceding ... Read more..
Out of the White Center Now inbox: The White Center-South Delridge Community Safety Coalition Meeting Thursday, June 25, 6-8 pm, St. James Place, 9421 18th Avenue SW Guest Presentations: * Big ... Read more..
We showed you that video, provided by the King County Sheriff's Office, while deputies were looking all around the region for the people responsible for that multiple shooting in SeaTac ... Read more..
From the King County Sheriff's Office: The suspect who Sheriff's Office detectives believe stole a car with two toddlers strapped in to the back seat was arrested this afternoon shortly before ... Read more..
From our partner site West Seattle Blog - both King County deputies and Seattle Police say what brought the chopper over the city/county line early Sunday was a fight, possibly ... Read more..
Just talked to Sgt. John Urquhart of the King County Sheriff's Office to find out why a search was under way around 16th/SW 116th - turns out one man was ... Read more..
The King County Sheriff's Office sent this news release today: The help of the public is needed to catch a robber who hit the Lucky 7 store twice in less than ... Read more..
From Alison, who lives near Evergreen High School: I just discovered that our garage on the far side of our yard has been broken into. Doesn't look like anything was ... Read more..
From the Seattle Times, the man accused of shooting and killing 38-year-old Dar'Rel Miller of White Center at the Federal Way Transit Center a year ago has just been set ... Read more..
We reported New Year's Eve that photos and video were out from a recent robbery rampage that included a December holdup at the Lucky Seven in White Center. Early this ... Read more..
Sketchy reports so far on TV news; here's a short online report from KOMO - just watched a KING5 on-air report that says family members at the scene told reporters ... Read more..


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U.S. P/C Industry Posts Record 1Q Profits; Net Gain on Underwriting Rises Nearly 21%
The U.S. property/casualty industry's net gain on underwriting rose $1.4 billion, or 20.8 percent, to $8.4 billion in first-quarter 2006 from $6.9 billion in first-quarter 2005. The combined ratio — a key measure of losses and other expenses per dollar of premium — improved to 91.2 percent from 92.2 percent.
The $8.4 billion net gain on underwriting is the largest experienced any quarter since the start of records extending back to 1986. Similarly, the 91.2 percent combined ratio for first quarter 2006 is the best for any quarter since 1986.
The industry's consolidated surplus — its assets minus its liabilities — rose $13 billion, or 3 percent, to $440.1 billion at March 31, 2006, from $427.1 billion at December 31, 2005, according to ISO and the Property Casualty Insurers Association of America (PCI).
Much of the increase in underwriting profits is directly attributable to a decline in first-quarter weather-related catastrophe losses. And despite higher profits on underwriting, the industry's net income after taxes fell $0.7 billion, or 3.8 percent, to $16.7 billion in first-quarter 2006 from $17.4 billion in first-quarter 2005, as investment income declined and federal income taxes increased.
The ISO and PCI industry figures for first-quarter 2006 are consolidated estimates for all private property/casualty insurers based on reports that account for at least 96 percent of all business written by private U.S. property/casualty insurers.
Catastrophe losses fell $0.7 billion, or 30.7 percent, to $1.5 billion in the first three months of this year from $2.1 billion in the first three months of 2005, according to ISO's Property Claim Services unit.
"The decline in catastrophe losses accounts for six-tenths of the improvement in the industry's combined ratio in first-quarter 2006," said Gregory Heidrich, the PCI's senior vice president for policy development and research. "With year-to-date catastrophe losses as of June 27 totaling $4.5 billion, or $1.4 billion more than the $3.1 billion in catastrophe losses in first-half 2005, we already know that underwriting results for the first-half of this year will not benefit from a decline in catastrophe losses," added Heidrich.
"And we have to brace ourselves for more bad news on catastrophe losses as the year plays out. While weather forecasts are subject to considerable uncertainty, meteorological experts ranging from Dr. Bill Gray and his team at Colorado State University to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the Tropical Storm Risk Consortium are projecting that this hurricane season will be far worse than average," said Michael R. Murray, ISO assistant vice president for financial analysis. "On average, there are fewer than 10 named storms each year, but the experts are saying there will be somewhere between 13 and 17 this hurricane season. And Dr. Gray's team says there is an 82 percent chance that an intense hurricane — category 3 or higher — will hit the U.S. this year. These are very bad odds, given that the average for the last century is 30 percentage points lower at 52 percent," added Murray.
"Other reasons to expect the news on catastrophe losses to get worse and underwriting results to deteriorate include traditional seasonal patterns," said Heidrich. "During the 57 years from the start of Property Claim Services' records in 1949 to 2005, more than half of all catastrophe losses — 53.5 percent — have occurred in the third quarter. And in nine of the past 10 years, full-year underwriting results were worse than first-quarter results."
Reported figures for first-quarter 2006 and first-quarter 2005 reflect three special developments that affected how results for the periods compare. In first-quarter 2006, one large insurer stopped reporting financial results as a property/casualty insurer and instead began reporting financial results as a health insurer. Also in first-quarter 2006, another insurer changed the accounting for $0.7 billion paid to its foreign parent in 2005, reducing both first-quarter 2006 reported new funds paid in and first-quarter 2006 dividends to shareholders by that amount. And in first-quarter 2005, one insurer received $2.3 billion in nonrecurring special dividends from an investment subsidiary, inflating industry investment income for the period.
Adjusted for these special developments, industry first-quarter 2006 net income after taxes increased $1.7 billion, or 11.4 percent, from $15 billion in first-quarter 2005. Also adjusted for special developments, first-quarter 2006 net gains on underwriting increased $1.5 billion, or 22.1 percent, from $6.9 billion a year earlier, and surplus increased $15.9 billion, or 3.8 percent, from $424.2 billion at year-end 2005.
Based on reported results, growth in net written premiums slowed to 1.9 percent versus year-ago levels in first-quarter 2006 from 2.4 percent in first-quarter 2005. Adjusted for special developments, written premiums increased 2.5 percent in first-quarter 2006 — 0.6 percentage points more than they rose based on reported results but less than half of the 5.1 percent average annual rate of increase in premiums during the 10 years ending 2005.
"Even with remarkable underwriting results for first-quarter 2006, the industry's statutory rate of return on average surplus for the 12 months ending March was just 10.1 percent — down from 11.2 percent for the 12 months ending March 2005. Furthermore, we are already seeing signs of an increase in competition that could undermine insurers' profitability," observed Murray. The ISO executive noted that written premium growth peaked at 16.8 percent in the third quarter of 2002 and has since dwindled to only about one-seventh of that even after adjusting for special developments.
"ISO MarketWatch data shows a similar trend, with premium rate increases on commercial renewals for the MarketWatch lines as a group peaking at 12.9 percent in July 2002. But since then, rate increases have become rate decreases, with rates on commercial renewals dropping 1.5 percent versus year-ago levels in December 2005. And the Council of Insurance Agents and Brokers' first-quarter 2006 market survey shows that commercial insurance rates have continued to decline, dropping 2.7 percent in the first quarter," added Murray.
"Government economic data also suggests that competition in insurance markets is intensifying," said Heidrich. "In third-quarter 2002 when premium growth peaked, written premium growth exceeded current dollar GDP (gross domestic product) growth by 12.9 percentage points. By first-quarter 2004, the spread between premium growth and GDP growth had turned negative, and in first-quarter 2006, premium growth adjusted for special developments fell 4.4 percentage points short of the 6.9 percent increase in GDP," added Heidrich.
"In addition to rising prices, we're also hearing about availability problems in coastal states in the wake of last year's record-setting $61.2 billion in catastrophe losses. The countrywide softening in insurance markets and the problems in coastal insurance markets are both natural consequences of the law of supply and demand," added Murray. "With the capacity to underwrite insurance risk depending on insurers' surplus, or net worth, and with total industry surplus at a record high, nobody should be surprised that insurance markets are softening countrywide. On the other hand, with last year's catastrophe losses in states such as Mississippi and Louisiana exceeding all the premiums private insurers charged for property insurance in those states during the past 20 years and with numerous sources reporting that reinsurance costs are rising sharply, nobody should be surprised that insurance has become scarce in coastal markets," added Murray."
"Fortunately for consumers and businesses in coastal markets, the law of supply and demand also implies that, at some point, higher prices will attract more capacity to those markets," said Heidrich. "Right now, the system is rebalancing itself — adjusting to Hurricanes Rita, Katrina and Wilma and what those storms taught the world about the risks we face."
Based on reported results, the industry's pretax net investment gains — the sum of realized capital gains and net investment income (primarily dividends earned from stocks and interest on bonds) — dropped $1.6 billion, or 10.3 percent, to $13.6 billion in first-quarter 2006 from $15.2 billion in first-quarter 2005.
"The slow growth in investment income (adjusted for special developments) reflects weakness in the yield on cash and invested assets. Based on reported data, insurers' average holdings of cash and invested assets rose 7.8 percent versus year-ago levels in first-quarter 2006 to $1.1 trillion, and insurers' average holdings increased about the same amount after adjusting for special developments affecting the data," said Murray. "But the adjusted annualized yield on insurers' holdings declined to 4.2 percent in first-quarter 2006 from 4.4 percent in first-quarter 2005, even though the Federal Reserve Board has raised its benchmark short-term interest rate 16 times since June 2004. In fact, the Fed's actions have had little effect on longer-term investment yields, with the yield on 10-year Treasury notes averaging 4.58 percent in first-quarter 2006 — 0.02 percentage points less than the 4.60 percent that it averaged during the quarter the Fed started raising short-term rates," added Murray.
The industry's pretax operating income — the sum of its gain or loss on underwriting, its net investment income and other miscellaneous income — fell $0.6 billion, or 2.9 percent, to $20.1 billion in first-quarter 2006 from $20.7 billion in first-quarter 2005. Miscellaneous other income changed little, rising to near zero in first-quarter 2006 from negative $0.1 billion in first-quarter 2005.
Combining the industry's operating income and its realized capital gains, its net income before taxes declined $0.1 billion, or 0.4 percent, to $22 billion in first-quarter 2006 from $22.1 billion in first quarter 2005. Despite the $0.1 billion decline in net income before taxes, the industry incurred $5.3 billion in income taxes in first-quarter 2006 — up $0.6 billion, or 12 percent, from the $4.7 billion in income taxes insurers incurred in first-quarter 2005.
Adjusted for special developments, first-quarter 2006 pretax operating income rose $1.8 billion, or 9.6 percent, from $18.3 billion in first-quarter 2005. Also adjusted for special developments, first-quarter 2006 net income before taxes increased $2.3 billion, or 11.4 percent, from $19.7 billion in first-quarter 2005. (Special developments had only a negligible effect on income taxes.)
The improvement in underwriting results in first-quarter 2006 reflects the excess of growth in premiums over growth in loss and loss adjustment expenses, other underwriting expenses and dividends to policyholders. Based on reported data, net written premiums rose $2 billion to $110.6 billion in first-quarter 2006 from $108.5 billion in first-quarter 2005. Net earned premiums rose $2.8 billion, or 2.7 percent, to $106.6 billion in first-quarter 2006 from $103.8 billion a year earlier.
Overall loss and loss adjustment expenses changed little, declining 0.1 percent to $69.3 billion in first-quarter 2006 from $69.4 billion in first-quarter 2005, as a result of largely offsetting changes in catastrophe and noncatastrophe losses. As catastrophe losses declined $0.7 billion, other loss and loss adjustment expenses rose $0.6 billion, or 0.9 percent, to $67.9 billion in first-quarter 2006 from $67.3 billion in first-quarter 2005.
Other underwriting expenses — primarily acquisition expenses, other expenses associated with underwriting, pricing and servicing insurance policies, and premium taxes — rose $1.3 billion, or 4.9 percent, to $28.6 billion in first-quarter 2006 from $27.2 billion a year earlier.
Dividends to policyholders increased $0.1 billion, or 21.5 percent, to $0.3 billion in first-quarter 2006.
"We have to anticipate that growth in noncatastrophe loss and loss adjustment expenses will accelerate, if only because of inflation," observed Murray.
Adjusted for special developments, net written premiums increased $2.7 billion versus year-ago levels in first-quarter 2006. Earned premiums increased $3.4 billion, or 3.3 percent. Overall loss and loss adjustment expenses rose $0.5 billion, or 0.7 percent, as noncatastrophe loss and loss adjustment expenses rose $1.2 billion, or 1.7 percent. (Special developments did not have a material effect on other underwriting expenses or policyholder dividends.)
Based on reported data, the net gain on underwriting in first-quarter 2006 amounts to 7.9 percent of the $106.6 billion in premiums earned during the period — up from 6.7 percent of the $103.8 billion in premiums earned in first-quarter 2005.
The $13 billion increase in surplus in first-quarter 2006 consisted of $16.7 billion in net income after taxes, $4.1 billion in unrealized capital gains on investments and $0.3 billion in new funds paid in, less $5.3 billion in dividends to stockholders and $2.9 billion in miscellaneous charges against surplus.
The $0.3 billion in new funds paid in during first-quarter 2006 is down 73.8 percent from the $1.2 billion in new funds paid in during first-quarter 2005.
The $4.1 billion in unrealized capital gains on investments in first-quarter 2006 constitutes a $10.4 billion positive swing from the $6.3 billion in unrealized capital losses on investments in first-quarter 2005.
"Combining insurers' realized capital gains on investments with their unrealized capital gains, insurers posted $6 billion in total capital gains in first-quarter 2006," said Heidrich. "Insurers' overall capital gains in first-quarter 2006 reflect developments in financial markets, with the S&P 500 rising 3.7 percent from year-end 2005 to March 31 as the NASDAQ composite climbed 6.1 percent. In the first quarter of 2005, insurers suffered $4.9 billion in total capital losses as the S&P 500 fell 2.6 percent and the NASDAQ dropped 8.1 percent. But the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ composite have both declined since the end of last March, with the S&P 500 giving back virtually all of its gains since the start of this year and the NASDAQ declining year-to-date as of June 26. This suggests that insurers' results for first-half 2006 will not benefit from capital gains," added Heidrich.
The $5.3 billion in dividends to shareholders in first-quarter 2006 is $1.1 billion, or 26 percent, more than the $4.2 billion in dividends to shareholders in first-quarter 2005.
The $2.9 billion in miscellaneous charges against surplus in the first three months of 2006 is a $3.3 billion adverse swing from the $0.4 billion in miscellaneous additions to surplus in the first three months of 2005.
Adjusted for special developments, surplus increased $15.9 billion in first-quarter 2006 — $3 billion more than growth in surplus based on reported data. The difference in the growth in surplus reflects the amount of surplus removed from the property/casualty industry when one insurer stopped reporting as a property/casualty insurer and began reporting as a health insurer. That change accounts for the $2.9 billion in miscellaneous charges against surplus in first-quarter 2006. Special developments did not affect the amount of net income after taxes or unrealized capital gains in first-quarter 2006. And the effects of special developments on new funds paid in and dividends to shareholders were offsetting.
Sources: ISO, PCI, I.I.I.
Categories: National NewsTopics: Hurricane Season
Roger Poe says:
7-4-2006 1. Overall, why aren\'t insurers happy with an 5-10% net INVESTMENT gain? They should be really happy with a 21%+ net UNDERWRITING gain on top of thatr. 2. However, i... read more
LLCJ says:
3 bad things are going to come of this news: 1. The consumer groups are going to start yelling and screaming that the insurance companies are not allowed to make profits! Afte... read more


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text:
Germany | About Us | Jobs | Contact Us | Help
You are here: Home Page > Science & Mathematics > Earth Sciences & Geography > The Tectonic Plates are Moving!
512 Pages | 84 figures/illustrations
Bookseller Code (AE)
The Tectonic Plates are Moving!
Roy Livermore
A lively introduction to the birth and development of one of the most important theories in Earth science
Provides an accessible non-technical introduction to modern plate tectonics
Brings the reader up to date with the latest developments and state-of-the-art techniques
Plate tectonics is a revolutionary theory on a par with modern genetics. Yet, apart from the frequent use of clichés such as 'tectonic shift' by economists, journalists, and politicians, the science itself is rarely mentioned and poorly understood. This book explains modern plate tectonics in a non-technical manner, showing not only how it accounts for phenomena such as great earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanic eruptions, but also how it controls conditions at the Earth's surface, including global geography and climate. The book presents the advances that have been made since the establishment of plate tectonics in the 1960s, highlighting, on the 50th anniversary of the theory, the contributions of a small number of scientists who have never been widely recognized for their discoveries.
Beginning with the publication of a short article in Nature by Vine and Matthews, the book traces the development of plate tectonics through two generations of the theory. First generation plate tectonics covers the exciting scientific revolution of the 1960s and 1970s, its heroes and its villains. The second generation includes the rapid expansions in sonar, satellite, and seismic technologies during the 1980s and 1990s that provided a truly global view of the plates and their motions, and an appreciation of the role of the plates within the Earth 'system'. The final chapter bring us to the cutting edge of the science, and the latest results from studies using technologies such as seismic tomography and high-pressure mineral physics to probe the deep interior. Ultimately, the book leads to the startling conclusion that, without plate tectonics, the Earth would be as lifeless as Venus.
Part I: First Generation
1:Probably the best theory on Earth
2:The Paving Stone Theory of World Tectonics
3:Poles Apart
4:Plate Tectonics by Jerks
5:Plate Tectonics by Creeps
Part II: Second Generation
6:Scum of the Earth
7:Continents and Supercontinents
8:All at Sea
9:Chilling Out
10:Ups and Downs
11:The Final Frontier
Roy Livermore, Associate Lecturer, The Open University
"This book is full of delightful surprises...I highly recommend this book as one for you if you want to be properly informed and royally entertained." - Pete Loader, Teaching Earth Science
"...a super read; I thoroughly enjoyed it! If you have the slightest interest in the history of plate tectonics, do read this bookyou will not be disappointed!" - Michael Brown, International Geology Review
"The Tectonic Plates are Moving! is a rock-solid read... the pacing of the book is great, the irreverent jokes and anecdotes genuinely amusing, the overview of different schools of thought balanced, and the explanations lucid." - The Inquisitive Biologist
"This book explains modern plate tectonics in a non-technical manner, showing not only how it accounts for phenomena such as earthquakes, tsunamis and volcanic eruptions, but also how it controls conditions at the Earths surface, including global geography and climate." - Ian Angus, Green Left Weekly
"This is a great read for anyone interested in this fascinating subject." - Chris Darmon, Down to Earth
"[A] packed account, richly contextualized." - Barbara Kiser, Nature
"Roy Livermores book provides a comprehensive and authoritative account of the development of plate tectonics theory, from the earliest days of sea-floor spreading to current ideas on mantle plumes and the tectonics of Mars. It clearly describes the critical interactions of science, technology, human personalities and historical accidents. This is a thoroughly enjoyable book, written from the point of view of a knowledgeable insider." - Roger C. Searle, Durham University, UK
"Far from being a dense, jargon-laden history book, Livermore brings an accessible writing style and brilliant humour to the story, which certainly had me chuckling. If you know anyone (including yourself!) who is keen to find out more about our planet, give them this book." - Jonathan Scafidi, The Geological Society
The secret of the Earth
One of the questions currently keeping astrobiologists (the people who would like to study life on other planets if only they could find some) awake at night is, what is the crucial difference that allowed the emergence and evolution of life on Earth, while its neighbours remained sterile? In their violent youth, all the inner planets started out with so much surplus heat energy'from planetary accretion and radioactive decay'that their surfaces melted to form magma oceans hundreds or thousands of kilometres deep.
Fifty years on: what has plate tectonics ever done for us?
In 2004, John Prescott, then Deputy Prime Minister in Tony Blair's New Labour government, remarked, 'the tectonic plates appear to be moving', referring to the impending downfall of Mr Blair. Since then, the tectonic plates metaphor has been applied to just about every major political transition, including events following the UK referendum on leaving the European Union and the election of Donald Trump as US President.
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Physical Geology Today
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Siegmund Brandt
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Gerry Kearns
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Sergey V. Krivovichev
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Science & Mathematics > Earth Sciences & Geography > Geophysics
Science & Mathematics > Earth Sciences & Geography > Volcanology & Seismology


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You can also reach Delilah online at www.delilah.com
Recruitment Source
Thank you for making 106.9 FM Northern Nevada's favorite radio station for over 20 years. Originally known as "K-Reno", in the mid-1990s KRNO adopted a focused mix of Adult Contemporary music and DJ presentation and changed its name to "Sunny 106.9". Although that remains a key part of our identity as Reno's "Sunny" radio station, in 2014 we increased the amount of music we play with 30-minute blocks of continuous music every workday. To highlight the change to a more music approach we adopted the additional nickname "More-FM." So now you can call us More-FM or Sunny radio or just 106.9 – we answer to all of those! Our goal has always been to give our listeners MORE of what you like. We appreciate our heritage, cherish our listeners, and strive to keep you in a SUNNY mood and provide MORE of what you expect: "Feel-Good Music, with Less Talk" all day at work!
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New District Apostle Helpers for Zambia and Malawi
(31.12.2003) Brussels. The fourth Sunday of Advent led Chief Apostle Richard Fehr to Brussels, the capital of Belgium, where he conducted a festive divine service for approximately 500 brothers and sisters. The actual congregation was much larger, however, since more than 18,000 additional souls were connected through satellite technology. In this divine service the chief apostle ordained two apostles for Zambia and Malawi and also commissioned two district apostle helpers to support their District Apostle Duncan Mfune. more ...
New District Apostle Helpers commissioned
(11.04.2003) Zürich. On Sunday, 6th April 2003, Chief Apostle Richard Fehr held a festive Divine service in Kigali, the capital of Rwanda. During this service he commissioned Apostles Michael Deppner and Frank Dzur as District Apostle Helpers. more ...
(10.04.2003) "Sunshine, dreamlike sand, heavenly peace" The travel brochure had promised quite a lot. Brigitte and Peter had been looking forward immensely to this Easter vacation. The travel agent could not have done anything about the fact that, for one whole week, it poured in buckets. He might have known that the beach was teeming with garbage, however. What a nuisance. And there was probably no one, other than the travel agent, who would make you believe that the noise from the aeroplanes and the nearby disco had anything at all to do with heavenly peace. Brigitte and Peter are bitterly disappointed. Their Easter vacation ended up to be a nightmare because no one had told them the whole truth. more ...
SARS in Singapore
(09.04.2003) Singapore. The SARS virus has reached Singapore. This affects our new apostolic congregation as well. The rector of our Singapore congregation, Joseph Sim, describes the situation. more ...


The total population of India is 133.92 crores and the total school going children stands at 18.5 crores.
Majority of school going Indians are following a mundane path which mainly comprises of engineering or medical. considering the current Indian education system children are often pressurized not just from parents but also from externalities to take these career choices.
While India is a growing economy, it not only needs engineers and doctors, but it also needs people in the space of public policy, social service and other domains that need a lot of attention and focus through our youth. Considering the fact that most of our educational policies are not that efficient and the people at the helm of affairs are not willing to change the policies and bring in the reforms in these policies. Our youth is our voice and we need the youth to stand up and make this country a better place by reforming the policies for this we need the youth to take up and be the agents of change.
With ipolicy at schools we aim to focus on these issues and try to give a better understanding of these issues, so that our youth just doesn't stay in the rat race and go beyond that. We try to bring in the change within the society by making the leaders of tomorrow and help envision a new India.
1. How will I benefit from this course?
2. How is it different from a counseling session?
ipolicy is a platform for a holistic approach towards public policy. Here the student will be getting hands-on experience on the learnings.
3. How will I know that I have completed the course?
A certificate will be provided to you at the end of the two-day course.
4. How do I register for this course?
5. Are there any pre-requisites for the course?
You'll be provided with the course material before the course starts. Make sure you skim through the provided material.
6. What are the eligibility criteria for the course?
This course is applicable to students of 10th, 11th and 12th standards.
Ipolicy helped me in learning how one real life problem could be approached in innumerable ways. It helped me in creating an empathetic and informed ideology regarding people, and society in general.
Ipolicy actually urged me to think over concepts in a broader and defined way. It put forward what the real concept conventionally says and how we think and feel about it. It challenged us to raise some questions about the similar political issues.
Ipolicy really satisfied my aim to attend this workshop which was to become a better person and be the change that I want to see in this world and with that have an idea of that change.
The program directed my attention towards developing opinions and issues that weren't considered that important to me and has also helped me create a more critical viewpoint regarding public administration.
Ipolicy totally changed my perspective. I came to understand the problems which I earlier never could think of.


After my son absolutely loved the Paddington Giant jigsaw puzzle reviewed here and has made and re-made it every day since, we were really pleased that Ravensburger offered to send us a Gruffalo Giant 24-piece Floor Puzzle (age 3+) for review.
The Gruffalo Shaped Giant Floor Puzzle comes in a large box and is made of 24 very large puzzle pieces.
The whole puzzle when completed is 26 inches x 17 inches at its widest parts. Small enough to fit on a dining table but better done on the floor!
The puzzle is shaped like a Gruffalo, and therefore the pieces are all odd shapes too, which makes it a bit different from the other square jigsaw puzzles we have.
The puzzle is aimed at children aged 3+, however my two year old completed it in under ten minutes so I'd personally recommend it for jigsaw fans over two.
What we liked about the Ravensburger Gruffalo Shaped Giant Floor Puzzle.
The Gruffalo is a much-loved and often requested story in this house, and we have a lot of Gruffalo toys and paraphernalia so this was an exciting addition!
The jigsaw puzzle is in the shape of the Gruffalo with a colourful outline, containing sentences from the book as well as pictures of all the characters (mouse, fox, snake and owl). As my son loves 'spotting' and knows the characters well this was fun for him.
The pieces are very larges and made of sturdy cardboard which won't bend when forced into the wrong spaces.
This jigsaw puzzle also came in a large box, big enough to take all the pieces without forcing them in. I am sure at some point in the near future we are going to run out of space for jigsaw boxes!
He could take apart and put the jigsaw together again very quickly; from now on I will stick to 4+ jigsaws for him I think! However for a slightly younger child it would make a lovely activity.
The Ravensburger Gruffalo Giant 24-piece Floor Puzzle has an RRP of £9.99 and can be bought from good toy shops or via Amazon using the affiliate link above.
For more information, visit the Ravensburger website or follow them on Facebook or Twitter.
Why not check out our other Jigsaw Puzzle reviews?
We were sent this Ravensburger Gruffalo Giant 24-piece Floor Puzzle by Ravensburger for free for the purposes of this review but all words and pictures are mine.
Milestone cards for new mums - FREE printable!


Would love living here. We have a great view of the park. It almost feels like we're not living in town. The staff has always nice and helpful.
Everyone here is amazing. And the sense of community is wonderful. I absolutely love the new parcel lockers. They make everything so much easier for everyone.
Is a good neighborhood but it takes a long time to get things done. It will be good to accomplish what its Been schedule in a reasonable time frame.
It has been a pleasant place to live so far, the move in was easy. It is a well maintained and clean place. The parking situation is sort of an issue but it's never horrible.
Just moved in a few days ago, I can tell they really care about there residents. They are super friendly, so much stuff for there residents. I love the place on the inside I came from umbrella properties they ain't got nothing on this place that's another reason why I feel like they truly care about there residents.
It's been such a great move in and I'm loving the community! Signing the lease was smooth and easy! Everyone is super helpful and lovely, I'm loving it here!
I lived there before, moved and 3 years later I'm moving back! Coming home. I love the neighborhood and the park close by. Staff are friendly and pets are welcome.
The staff is great they are Very pet friendly with a great community of residents. Grounds of the complex are kept in decent condition. Got love the covered parking.
I am very happy at Parkside Apartments, staff is friendly and helpful. Landscape is beautiful. The maintenance team is prompt and professional, when you need maintenance ask for Rick he's the best he's friendly courteous and gets the job done!
Everyone is super nice so far and I was so excited about the welcome gift, it was cute and filled with stuff I completely forgot about. This place is great.
Overall, the experience at Parkside is awesome. The staff members are kind and try to work with you. The maintenance responds in a timely manner. The apartments are clean and nice. The only problem I tend to have is too much noise from outside sometimes.
The staff are amazing! Nice and very helpful. I'm excited to be a resident. It's a beautiful complex. Very well kept. The process was kept simple.
I like the apartment. There are a few issues that need resolved but overall it's nice. The grounds are nice and clean. The clubhouse is nice to have.
I love the location of parkside apartments and the people who live here have been very friendly! The staff at the office are always helpful and kind and communicate well. I'm excited to start this next chapter of our life here.
My move in date isn't until April, but so far I am very happy with how everything is going. I look forward to our experience there and look forward to enjoying our new home.
So far it's been amazing with the staff working so quickly to get things done. We have been able to move into the complex a week before we thought we would be able to!
Wish there was some sort of security guard on the premises. My sons bike was locked up with a quality lock in the bike lock by our front door and it was stolen.
Parkside Apartments are quiet living . The complex is kept up very well and maintained. The grounds are kept clean . Staff is very friendly.
I have had some rough experiences with maintenance. Also the office staff sometimes doesn't listen to what I Ask for and give me the third degree when I come in for a package.
The clubhouse staff are great. Helpful and very nice. When I had a maintenance issue they sent maintenance right over and he was very helpful and thorough.


Serena Williams Net Worth is $85 Million.
Serena Williams Net Worth is $85 Million. Serena Williams is a professional tennis player, originally from Michigan, with an estimated net worth of $85 million dollars. Serena Williams has been ranked number one in the world five times and has earne Serena Jameka Williams is an American professional tennis player and a former world no. 1. The Women's Tennis Association has ranked her world no. 1 in singles on five separate occasions. She became the world no. 1 for the first time on July 8, 2002 and regained this ranking for the fifth time on November 2, 2009. She is considered by many to be the greatest female tennis player in the modern era and is the only female player to have won over $35 million in prize money.


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Home | Post a Job | Find a Job | Vets | About | Blog | Resources | Contact
Top 10 U.S. Companies That Hire Military Veterans
The military is one of the most challenging career paths that one can embark on. It's a risky career but still, the desire to protect the country is much bigger than any challenge.
The good side of it is that it's one of the most rewarding careers as its pay is quite handsome. However, although some decide to serve in the military for a lifetime, they may return to the civilian life due to various circumstances.
The main challenge that many veterans face is finding employment. This is because their resumes lack work experience in many fields related to certain positions.
Due to these reasons, many U.S companies employ a large number of veterans and have various jobs available that match military skills and experience.
Over the past years, these companies have managed to provide employment opportunities to these veterans, which is a great initiative. The decision of any company to hire a veteran is regarded as significant and of value.
Let's take a closer look at 10 companies that have been rated as the most valuable to military veterans.
1. USSA
The company was originally founded in 1922to provide military veterans with insurance. Over the years, USAA has since spread its wings to become a bank and a financial services company. About 30% of its recruiting budget is allocated to veterans, with approximately 2, 700 employed. The company offers training, mentoring, orientation, and hiring programs for the veterans' spouses.
Following in line is America's leading wireless provider. The company has employed about 13,000 veterans and continues to recruit more. Verizon offers orientation, training, and mentoring programs for veterans as well as hiring programs for their spouses. The company's website features a military skills matcher for veterans seeking employment and provides addresses to their offices that are close to military bases.
3. CACI International Corporations
Headquartered in Virginia, CACI International Inc. is a multinational professional services and information technology that works in cooperation with the Department of Defense and intelligence agencies. The company employs veterans at every level of organization. It also has a military transition center that is complete with transition assistance programs, and hiring specialists. The specialists assist in job application process, resume writing, and providing status updates on applications to various open positions. It also has hiring programs for spouses.
4. BAE System Inc
This is a global defense, aerospace, and security company that deliver a wide range of products and services for the naval forces, land, air, security, technology solutions, advanced electronics, as well as customer support services. BAE System Inc. has a career pathway for veterans with its Warrior Integration Program which was designed to hire wounded veterans.
5. Capital One
Capital one is one of the largest banks in the country and its Military New Hire Transition Program is designed to provide employment to the recently returned veterans. Its Military Network Association offer veterans guidance, encouragement, reserve support, celebrations, and other form of support.
6. Intuitive Research and Technology Corp.
The company is headquartered in Huntsville, Ala and provides production support, product development, systems engineering, rapid prototyping, programmatic support, and technology management to the Department of Defense, commercial companies, and government agencies. The company allocates almost 50% of its recruiting budget for veterans.
7. Union Pacific
The company runs 8,000 locomotives in 23 states west of Mississippi. 20% of the company's employees are veterans. The company allocates 43% of its recruiting budget for veterans. In addition, the company offers mentoring programs for veterans and reservists, as well as hiring programs for military spouses.
8. Southern Company
Based in Atlanta, Southern Company provides the highest amount of power in the South and is the fourth-largest utility company in the US. 85% of its recruitment budget is allocated to veterans and has employed more than 2,800 veterans. It offers mentoring programs and on-job training under the GI bill.
9. Waste Management
The company is one of the largest waste management companies in the US and according to its website, it hires a veteran every day. One in 12 employees in the company is a military veteran, which translates to a large number of recruited veterans.
10. Humana Inc.
This is a non-profit health care company that basically markets and administers health insurance in the United States. The company is especially interested in putting veterans back to work and offering employment to their spouses too. The commonly available job positions in the company includes pharmacy, information technology, nurses, data analytics, underwriting, sales, underwriting, and actuarial.
We Serve All Branches of the Military


Tommie is the sweetest little girl and would love a home and family of her very own! She is about 9 months old and looks like a small pointer mix. Tommie is about 30 pounds and seems to be holding at that weight so we do not expect her to get much bigger than she already is. Tommie has the cutest cropped tail and a single brown spot on her back; one side of her face is brown and you can see those pointer spots along the bridge of her nose and on her other ear. She has the most beautiful golden eyes and she can give you the most soulful stare you ever saw. Tommie loves lap time and cuddling/snoozing with her person, but she also loves a good romp outdoors and can run like the wind! She is very agile, fast and smart – we think she would do well on an agility course. Tommie knows "sit" and she is pretty good about obeying "off," that command is still a work in progress. She also knows "out," "treat," and "kennel." She is crate trained but would definitely prefer to sleep with her person! Tommie is housebroken and will let you know when she needs to relieve herself. She has been in a foster home with 5 large dogs and 2 cats and has done well. One of the cats has taken to teasing her into a game of chase but when told "No!" she stops instantly. Tommie still has lots of puppy energy so she needs plenty of outdoor playtime – if she has another dog to play with, even better! If you are looking for a loyal, adaptable dog, Tommie is your girl!


Make your semi-formal fashion an impressionable one with this sleek pair of blue derby shoes from Aditi Wasan. Constructed with high-quality synthetic suede upper and two tone high-quality tunit sole. Equipped with the cushioned cup insole for maximum comfort. Finished with the brand signature logo to the insole. Made in India with the high standard of quality and craftsmanship.


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Q: how to find out the rank of a row based on a mysql sum? I'm wanting to find the ranking / number of a row. I'm not sure if I'm explaining this well so I'll try.
I have the query
$sql = 'SELECT SUM(amount) AS total FROM sales ORDER BY total DESC';

$res = mysql_query($sql);

while($row = mysql_fetch_array($res)) {

// go through and print each row biggest 'total' first
echo $row['total'] . '
';

}

Now I want to go through and give each a ranking based on the biggest 'total' being number '1'.
So I can do that with php by doing some counting:
$sql = 'SELECT SUM(amount) AS total FROM sales ORDER BY total DESC';

$res = mysql_query($sql);

$rank = 1;

while($row = mysql_fetch_array($res)) {

// go through and print each row biggest 'total' first
echo 'rank: ' . $rank . ', ' . $row['total'] . '
';

$rank = $rank + 1;

}

This is good and working. But what I'm wanting to do, is be able to determine the ranking of a row without php so I can do an sql query based on say an affiliate ID from the sales table.
So for example I have 100 rows of sales data with an affiliate ID linked to each row, how would I go about simply getting the ranking based on the affiliate with the biggest total?

A: You can use a recursive variable to do this, like so:
select
    @rownum:=@rownum+1 as rank,
    sum(amount) as total
from
    sales,
    (select @rownum:=0) a
order by total desc

To grab the ranking of a given affiliate, you would have to do:
select
    a.*,
    t.rank,
    t.total
from
    affiliates a
    inner join (
        select
            @rownum:=@rownum+1 as rank,
            affiliate_id,
            sum(amount) as total
        from
            sales,
            (select @rownum:=0) r
        group by affiliate_id
        order by total desc) t on
       a.affiliate_id = t.affiliate_id
where
    a.affiliate_id = 342

Now that's (relatively) slow, because you have to do a table scan each time.
If you weren't using MySQL, I'd suggest a subquery, but by and large MySQL optimizes subqueries horrendously. It seems like it'd be fairly slow to me, but I haven't benchmarked it. At any rate, you can do this:
select
    a.*,
    (select
        count(*)+1
    from
        (select affiliate_id from sales
         group by affiliate_id having sum(amount) >
            (select sum(amount) from sales where affiliate_id = a.affiliate_id)))
        as rank
from
    affiliates a
where
    a.affiliate_id = 342

A: Other implementations of DB has row_number and row_number_count. If you are using MySQL, I suggest you take a look at this walk-around

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


Support is defined as the act or instance of supporting; serve as a foundation for something else.
Support can be given to many different ways. Through the encouragement to perform and progress and also through being there for someone who needs help. Support is usually shown through family and peers but can come from anywhere from support centers, rehab centers, and treatment centers.
Without a support, confidence would be very difficult to find. Support is key to getting through trials and problems. The ability to have someone that is supporting you and encouraging you to move forward and progress is important to growth and change. Especially with youth, that as they are trying to find out who they are that they feel supported in all of their doings. This is important because as support and encouragement is shown the youth feel confident to become the best they can be.


text:
New Book Outlines Fifteen College Reopening Scenarios
David Acevedo
CounterCurrent
DOJ Probe Finds Decades of Racism in Yale Admissions
The Department of Justice has found that Yale illegally disc...
Coronavirus: A Golden Opportunity for Online Learning?
If you're looking for the magic remedy that will cure...
Higher Ed's Princes and Paupers Plan Reopening
Elite colleges and universities have not provided the action...
Editor's Note: This article was originally published under the name "John David," the former pseudonym of NAS Communications & Research Associate David Acevedo. To learn more about why David no longer writes under this name, click here.
CounterCurrent: Week of 8/30
Reopening America's 5,000+ colleges and universities after COVID-19 campus closures is surely the greatest logistical quagmire higher education administrators have faced in recent memory. In order to properly obey government health protocols and assuage the fears of students and parents alike, schools will have to rework every aspect of their normal operations.
These challenges have led some university systems, such as the University of California and California State, to decide relatively early on to throw in the towel and hold most classes online with "limited exceptions" (e.g. fields where hands-on work is absolutely necessary, such as nursing and the hard sciences). Others have dragged their feet during the summer months, only to come to the same decision, including the University of North Carolina, Michigan State, and Notre Dame.
While it's debatable that the coronavirus pandemic has really ushered in a "new normal," rather than an aberration that should be seen as anything but, colleges and universities will certainly have to adapt for the foreseeable future. Most governmental leaders have made a true return to normalcy contingent upon the successful deployment of a coronavirus vaccine, a work still in progress.
So, in the meantime, what are colleges and universities to do? Is there a one-size-fits-all solution for every school? What about a two- or three-sizes-fit-all plan? According to Joshua Kim and Edward Maloney of Georgetown University, fifteen ought to do the trick.
In their new book, The Low-Density University: 15 Scenarios for Higher Education, Kim and Maloney outline a wide variety of reopening options on a spectrum between "Back to Normal" and "Fully Remote." Within these two extremes, the remaining thirteen scenarios fall under five categories, including those related to: 1) when the semester will start; 2) which students, if any, will be on campus; 3) what curricular changes will be made; 4) the location of instruction; and 5) the instructional method. The full book is available to read for free on Project MUSE.
The authors are clear that no one option is right for every school, or even all those within a particular type of institution (e.g. urban, private colleges). But their book is a helpful compendium of the different options deemed viable by higher education administrators around the country. Kim and Maloney call it "a framework for making future decisions," one that they hope will be of continual help to colleges and universities in the months and years of planning and re-planning to come.
Surely some reopening scenarios will be more successful than others, and only time will tell which is which. Let us know in the comment section (click the button below) how your schools are reopening and if you can find their scenarios for reopening in Kim and Maloney's book.
CounterCurrent is the National Association of Scholars' weekly newsletter, written by Communications & Research Associate David Acevedo. To subscribe, update your email preferences here.
Image: Matthew Rice, Public Domain