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As a Certified Massage Therapist, Sharon's approach to the healing process is to first understand your condition. She will discuss with you your symptoms, diagnosis and current pain points. Second, Sharon will use the therapeutic touch of myofascial massage therapy to find and release your muscle and fascial restrictions. Typically you will feel relief at the area she is manipulating as well as feeling that relief spread as further restrictions are released. Finally, Sharon will share with you what she learned about your body and teach you ways that you can continue your healing. Myofascial release massage therapy included with your current care regime will result in profound and lasting changes.
In addition to providing Myofascial Release Therapy, Sharon will also teach you ways to stretch and self treat, further empowering your natural healing ability.
Chronic pain does not have to be a life sentence. Your body can heal.


text:
The Saint-Denis River (in French: rivière Saint-Denis) is a tributary of the south-eastern shore of the Kamouraska River, which flows on the south shore of the St. Lawrence river two km to the east of the village center of Kamouraska.

The Saint-Denis river flows on the Côte-du-Sud in the municipalities of Saint-Gabriel-Lalemant, Mont-Carmel and Saint-Bruno-de-Kamouraska, in the Kamouraska Regional County Municipality, in the administrative region of Bas-Saint-Laurent, in province of Quebec, in Canada.

Geography
Drawing its source from a marsh area in Saint-Gabriel-Lalemant, near the limit of Mont-Carmel, this watercourse generally flows towards the northeast. This spring is located  east of the south coast of the St. Lawrence River and  southeast of the center of the village of Saint-Gabriel-de-Kamouraska.

From its source, the Saint-Denis River flows over  in a forest and agricultural zone, divided into the following segments:
  northward in Saint-Gabriel-Lalemant, up to the confluence of Bras de la Rivière Saint-Denis (coming from the southeast); this  long arm has its source at Davidson Lake;
  northward, to the southern limit of the municipality of Mont-Carmel;
  towards the northeast in Mont-Carmel collecting the waters of Anctil brook, up to the route 287 bridge, either between the localities "Grand Bras" and "Bayonne";
  northeasterly, up to the limit of Saint-Bruno-de-Kamouraska;
  north-east, to the Petit-Moulin road bridge which crosses the village of Saint-Bruno-de-Kamouraska;
  towards the north-west collecting the water from the Bouteillerie River, the Pelletier stream, the Marcel-Dionne stream, the Tardif water, from the Labrie stream, from the Ferré stream, to the Petit-Moulin road, which it crosses again;
  westward, curving southward, to its confluence.

This confluence is located at  south of the village center of Saint-Pascal, at  north-west of the village center of Saint-Bruno-de-Kamouraska and  northeast of the center of the village of Mont-Carmel.

Toponymy
The toponym "Saint-Denis river" is derived from the name of the municipality of the parish of Saint-Denis-De La Bouteillerie located further west, on the south coast of St. Lawrence River. The river tributary of the Bouteillerie is also derived from the name of this parish.

On the map of the township of Woodbridge (1882), the Saint-Denis river is designated the Plate river, characterizing its topographic profile with a low drop. Toponymic variant: rivière de Bayonne and Le Grand Bras.

The toponym "rivière Saint-Denis" was formalized on December 5, 1968, by the Commission de toponymie du Québec.

See also

 List of rivers of Quebec

References

Rivers of Bas-Saint-Laurent
Kamouraska Regional County Municipality

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaWikipedia


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text:
Q: PHP/mysql: Como deshabilitar botón si un accesorio de la BD se agota Tengo una base de datos de una tienda de accesorios, y me gustaría que el botón de 'añadir al carrito' de mi aplicación se desactive, es decir, que no se pueda hacer click en él cuando el producto no tiene más unidades de las veces clickeadas, como en este caso 3. El codigoExist pertenece a la tabla denominada 'existencias', y está relacionado con el codigoAcc de la tabla 'accesorios'.

SQL.php:
public static function agotado($ce){
        $query="select * from existencias where codigoExist='$ce' and unidadesExist<";
        $resultado=self::ejecutaConsulta($sql);
        $agotado=null;
        if(isset($resultado)) {
            $row = $resultado->fetch();
            $agotado=new Accesorios($row);
        }
        return $agotado;
    }

accesorios.php:
if($accesorios['']<){
        echo "<input id='botones' type='disabled' name='enviar' value='Añadir al carrito'/>

";
        echo "</form>";
        echo "
";
            }else{
                echo "<input id='botones' type='button' name='enviar' value='Añadir al carrito'/>

";
           }

A: El atributo disabled se usa sobre la etiqueta como atributo independiente, tu lo estas usando como valor del atributo type. prueba lo siguiente
echo "<input id='botones' type='button' disabled name='enviar' value='Añadir al carrito'/>

";

Debería funcionar siempre y cuando tu consulta y condicional sean correctas.
Ejemplo del uso de disabled.

.boton-habilitado{
  width:100px;
  height:50px;
  color:green;
  cursor:pointer;
}

.boton-deshabilitadp{
  width:100px;
  height:50px;
  color:red;
  cursor:not-drop;
}
<input type="button" value="boton habilitado" class="boton-habilitado"></input>

<input type="button" disabled value="boton deshabilitado" class="boton-deshabilitado"></input>

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


← ESRC success rates by discipline: what on earth is going on?
There was an interesting snippet of information in an article in this week's Times Higher about the latest research council success rates.
[A] spokeswoman for the ESRC said that since the research council had begun requiring institutions from June 2011 to internally sift applications before submitting them, it had recorded an overall success rate of 24 per cent, rising to 33 per cent for its most recent round of responsive mode grants. She said that application volumes had also dropped by 37 per cent, "which is an encouraging start towards our demand management target of a 50 per cent reduction" by the end of 2014-15.
Back in October last year I noticed what I thought was a change in tone from the ESRC which gave the impression that they were more confident that institutions had taken note of the shot across the bows of the "demand management" measures consultation exercise(s), and that perhaps asking for greater restraint in putting forward applications would be sufficient. I hope it is, because as the current formal demand management proposals that will be implemented if required unfairly and unreasonably include co-applicants in any sanction.
I've written before (and others have added very interesting comments) about how I think we arrived at the situation where social science research units were flinging as many applications in as possible in the hope that some of them would stick. And I hope the recent improvements in success rates to around 1-in-3, 1-in-4 don't serve to re-encourage this kind of behaviour. We need long term, sustainable, careful, restraint in terms of what applications are submitted by institutions to the ESRC (and other major funders, for that matter) and the state in which they're submitted.
Everyone will want to improve the quality of applications, and internal mentoring and peer review and the kind of lay review that I do will assist with that, but we also need to make sure that the underlying research idea is what I call 'ESRC-able'. At Nottingham University Business School, I secured agreement a while ago now to introduce a 'proof of concept' review phase for ESRC applications, where we review a two page outline first, before deciding whether to give the green light for the development of a full application. I think this allows time for changes to be made at the earliest stage, and makes it much easier for us to say that the idea isn't right and shouldn't be developed than if a full application was in front of us.
And what isn't 'ESRC-able'? I think a look at the assessment schema gives some useful clues – if you can't honestly say that your application would fit in the top two categories on the final page, you probably shouldn't bother. 'Dull but worthy' stuff won't get funded, and I've seen the phrase "incremental progress" used in referees' comments to damn with faint praise. There's now a whole category of research that is of good quality and would doubtless score respectably in any REF exercise, but which simply won't be competitive with the ESRC. This, of course, raises the question about how non-groundbreaking stuff gets funded – the stuff that's more than a series of footnotes to Plato, but which builds on and advances the findings of ground-breaking research by others. And to that I have no answer – we have a system which craves the theoretically and methodologically innovative, but after a paradigm has been shifted, there's no money available to explore the consequences.
Also in the Times Higher this week is the kind of story that appears every year – some universities have done better this year at getting research funding/with their success rates than in previous years, and some have done worse. Some of those who have done better and worse are the traditional big players, and some are in the chasing pack. Those who have done well credit their brilliant internal systems and those who have done badly will contest the figures or point to extenuating circumstances, such as the ending of large grants.
While one always wants to see one's own institution doing well and doing better, and everyone always enjoys a good bit of schadenfreu de at the expense of their rivals benchmark institutions and any apparent difficulties that a big beast find themselves in, are any of these short term variations of actual, real, statistical significance? Apparently big gains can be down to a combination of a few big wins, grants transferring in with new staff, and just… well… the kind of natural variation you'd expect to see. Big losses could be big grants ending, staff moving on, and – again – natural variance. Yes, you could ascribe your big gains to your shiny new review processes, but would you also conclude that there's a problem with those same processes and people the year after when performance is apparently less good?
Why these short term (and mostly meaningless) short term variations are more newsworthy than the radical variation in ESRC success rates for different social science disciplines I have no idea….
This entry was posted in ESRC, Frustrations, Funding, Research Costs, University culture. Bookmark the permalink.


text: Q: How to run Windows 10 from USB on Macbook? I need to create a portable windows To Go workplace for my job and make it runs on a Mac computer, i tried WinToUSB tool and it didn't work, it keeps stucking at 0% when creating Windows to Go with a USB 3.0, so, is there any other way or tools that can create a WTG drive that can be boot and run on a mac?


text:
· Posted on Apr 2, 2022
People Are Sharing How Much Money They Actually Make, And I Love The Transparency
BRB for a psychologist for the feds??
by Ryan Schocket
Recently, I wrote a post about people sharing their job titles and exact salaries. I love the transparency of it all, and so did our BuzzFeed Community. Commenters came through and shared their own jobs and salaries.
Cavan Images / Getty Images/Cavan Images RF
Here's what they said:
1. "I work for an authorized retailer for Verizon, and I make around $40,000/year."
—marys4edb6ab5a
2. "I have 13 years of public school teaching experience at the elementary level in an urban school district in the Northeast. I have a Master's degree, plus additional credits (every 15 credits moves me into a new pay lane). Base salary is $112,000. I get stipends from taking on some extra responsibilities at school, so I'll be at $120,000 this year and still have more lanes to attain."
—cj5coutts
Maskot / Getty Images/Maskot
3. "I work on the donor database for a large, regional, hunger-relief nonprofit. I pull in $44,500/year and they took away bonuses for non-exempt employees."
—emackoy
4. "I'm a third-year electrical apprentice and make $42/hr, with employer paid retirement and medical for myself and family. (Union). My husband is an electrician and makes $60/hr, same benefits. We usually do $220,000 a year."
—akscorp84
5. "I'm a sighted teacher, teaching blind adults technology. Been there and only 19 years and make $19/hour."
—happyowl37
Wavebreakmedia / Getty Images/iStockphoto
6. "I'm an office manager of dental practice in Washington state and I make $73,500."
—logo8090
7. "Cybersecurity consulting manager $230,000/year plus bonus 100% remote."
—cyberduo
8. "Home appliances sales — commission only. Last year, I made $125,000/year."
—smarnul
Hill Street Studios / Getty Images
9. "I'm a psychologist and I work for the feds. $172,000/year, plus health and dental, a pension, health savings account, and education debt reduction."
—geofflanephd
10. "Self-employed personal trainer, and I made $60,000/year in 2021 doing mostly remote sessions."
—aabee
Violetastoimenova / Getty Images
11. "Chronic conditions health coach for insurance companies. I have a bachelors in public health, work entirely remotely, and I make $47,000/year."
—sarahs402d05f80
12. "ER/ICU vet tech with college degree and 12 years experience, yet I make $35,000/year."
—amien42f24b7b1
Xavierarnau / Getty Images
13. "I'm an exotic dancer in a West Virginia town. I average $300 on an eight-hour shift (3 days a week) and make anywhere from $43,500–$55,000/year."
—edynblair1
14. "I'm a receiver at a Walmart DC make $32/hr."
—jaredsparks
15. "Freelance writer. Made $201,000 in 2021, but it's usually lower than that. No benefits, obviously."
—mamabearelle
Westend61 / Getty Images/Westend61
16. "I'm a wild land firefighter and I make $49,000/year. I usually work 1,000 hours of overtime during the summer which brings me to $80,000/year."
—jmallory343
Did they miss any? Let me know in the comments below!
Responses edited for length/clarity.

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


text:
Q: How do I put 3 login tries before the programs exits by itself? Whenever the user got the wrong user or password for 3 tries the program will have a pop-up message window with "You got incorrect username/password, this program will exit" then the program will exit by itself. Can you guys help me? Thank you in advance!
I tried looping with do-while, but it just pops up three logging error window.
public void actionPerformed(ActionEvent ae) {
    String user = tf1.getText();
    String password = tf2.getText();

    String[] users = { "user1", "user2", "user3", "user", "JDjwa89duaJd8u&DuwADUu@A*Uj8dju" };
    String[] pass = { "pass1", "pass2", "pass3", "pass4", "djoiaw87798duyA*(dywayd*(&d8a7D" };
    int ctr = 1;

    if (tf1.getText() != null && tf2.getText() != null) {

        if (user.equals(users[0]) && password.equals(pass[0])) {
            System.out.println("Hello: " + users[0]);
            System.out.println("Login Succesful!");
        }

        if (user.equals(users[1]) && password.equals(pass[1])) {
            System.out.println("Hello: " + users[1]);
            System.out.println("Login Succesful!");
        }

        if (user.equals(users[2]) && password.equals(pass[2])) {
            System.out.println("Hello: " + users[2]);
            System.out.println("Login Succesful!");
        }

        if (user.equals(users[3]) && password.equals(pass[3])) {
            System.out.println("Hello: " + users[3]);
            System.out.println("Login Succesful!");

        }

        if (user.equals("") && password.equals("")) {
            JOptionPane.showMessageDialog(null, "Please type in your username/password.", "Login Error", JOptionPane.ERROR_MESSAGE);
        }
    } else if (tf1.getText() != users[4] && tf2.getText() != pass[4]) {

        JOptionPane.showMessageDialog(null, "Incorrect username/password", "Login Error", JOptionPane.ERROR_MESSAGE);
        ctr++;
    }

}

A: Create a variable called loginTries and set it to 0. Each time a failed login attempt is made, increment it (loginTries++;). Also, whenever you check the password, add an if statement to see whether loginTries > 3, and if so, print your message and exit with System.exit(0);
Example:
public void actionPerformed(ActionEvent ae)
{
int loginTries = 0;
String user = tf1.getText();
String password = tf2.getText();

String[] users = {"user1", "user2", "user3", "user", "JDjwa89duaJd8u&DuwADUu@A*Uj8dju"};
String [] pass = {"pass1", "pass2", "pass3", "pass4", "djoiaw87798duyA*(dywayd*(&d8a7D"};
int ctr = 1;

if(tf1.getText() != null && tf2.getText() != null)
{
if(loginTries > 3) {
   JOptionPane.showMessageDialog(null, "You got incorrect username/password, this program will exit", "Login Error", JOptionPane.ERROR_MESSAGE);
   System.exit(0);
}

     if(user.equals(users[0]) && password.equals(pass[0]))
    {
        System.out.println("Hello: " + users[0]);
        System.out.println("Login Succesful!");
    }

   if(user.equals(users[1]) && password.equals(pass[1]))
    {
        System.out.println("Hello: " + users[1]);
        System.out.println("Login Succesful!");
    }

    if(user.equals(users[2]) && password.equals(pass[2]))
    {
        System.out.println("Hello: " + users[2]);
        System.out.println("Login Succesful!");
    }

    if(user.equals(users[3]) && password.equals(pass[3]))
    {
        System.out.println("Hello: " + users[3]);
        System.out.println("Login Succesful!");

    }

    if (user.equals ("") && password.equals(""))
    {
        JOptionPane.showMessageDialog(null, "Please type in your username/password.", "Login Error", JOptionPane.ERROR_MESSAGE);
       loginTries++;
    }
}
 else if(tf1.getText() != users[4] && tf2.getText() != pass[4])
{

 JOptionPane.showMessageDialog(null, "Incorrect username/password", "Login Error", JOptionPane.ERROR_MESSAGE);
 ctr++;
 loginTries++;
}

}

Also, instead of using additional ifs, use else if.


text:
WACs > Title 82 > Chapter 82-48 > Section 82-48-090
82-48-080 << 82-48-090 >> 82-48-100
WAC 82-48-090
Processing of public records requests—General.
(1) Making a request for public records.
(a) Any person wishing to inspect or copy public records of OFM should make the request by email to publicdisclosure@ofm.wa.gov, or in writing on OFM's request form, available at http://ofm.wa.gov/publicrecords/default.asp, or by letter or fax addressed to the public records officer and including the following information:
• Name of requestor;
• Address of requestor;
• Other contact information, including email address and telephone number;
• The date of the request; and
• Identification of the public records. Records must be sufficiently described so that OFM may identify the record. A request for all or substantially all the agency's records is not a request for an identifiable record.
(b) The public records officer may accept requests for public records that contain the above information by telephone or in person. If the public records officer accepts such a request, he or she will confirm receipt of the information and the substance of the request in writing to the requestor.
(2) Acknowledging receipt of request. Within five business days after the day the request is received, the public records officer will do one or more of the following:
(a) Provide the requested record or a link to the record online;
(b) Provide a reasonable estimate of when records will be available;
(c) If the request is unclear or does not sufficiently identify the requested records, request clarification from the requestor; or
(d) Deny the request.
(3) Notification of other affected parties. In the event that the requested records name or specifically pertain to a person, or contain information that may affect the rights of others, the public records officer may, prior to providing the records, give notice to such others who are named, to whom the records pertain, or whose rights may be affected by the disclosure. The purpose of such notice is both to make persons named in a record aware that such information is being released and to make it possible for those persons, should they choose to do so, to seek an order from a court to prevent or limit the disclosure. The notice to the affected persons will include a copy of the request.
(4) Records exempt from disclosure. By law, some records are exempt or prohibited from disclosure, in whole or in part. If OFM determines that a record or part of a record is exempt or prohibited from disclosure and should be withheld, the public records officer will deny the request as to that record or portion of the record, and will identify the withheld record in general terms, state the specific exemption authorizing the withholding of the record or portion of the record, and provide a brief explanation of how the exemption applies to the record or portion of the record being withheld.
(5) Providing copies of records. Public records requested will be made available as promptly as is possible without excessive interference with the other essential functions of the agency, and in accordance with the requirement that agencies protect the requested records from damage or disorganization.
(6) Providing records in installments. When the request is for a large number of records, or if the records require substantial legal review to determine whether any exemptions apply, the public records officer may provide copies of the records in installments.
(7) Completion of request. When all requested copies of records are provided, the public records officer will indicate in writing that OFM has fulfilled its duties under the Public Records Act, and that the request is closed.
(8) Closing withdrawn or abandoned request. When the requestor withdraws the request or fails within thirty days to claim or review records or to pay the deposit or final payment for the requested copies, the public records officer will close the request and indicate to the requestor that OFM has closed the request.
(9) Later discovered documents. If, after OFM has informed the requestor that it has provided all available records, it becomes aware of additional responsive documents existing at the time of the request, it will promptly inform the requestor of the additional documents and provide them, at no charge, on an expedited basis.
[Statutory Authority: RCW 42.56.040, 42.56.070, 42.56.100, 42.56.120, 42.56.520 and 2017 c 304. WSR 18-09-018, § 82-48-090, filed 4/10/18, effective 5/11/18. Statutory Authority: RCW 42.17.260. WSR 05-01-004, § 82-48-090, filed 12/1/04, effective 1/2/05; Order 34, § 82-48-090, filed 9/16/76.]


text:
Learning to Live Safely with COVID
"In the end, all pandemics burn out," states a thoughtful article titled, "How the world learns to live with covid-19," in the Oct. 16 issue of The Economist. "Eventually, sufficient numbers of people develop immunity so viruses can no longer find new hosts at the rate they need to sustain their growth. And yet only one human disease, smallpox, has ever been completely eradicated."
What has happened to the others, such as influenza, cholera, or Hepatitis B? They "slowly became endemic, part of the landscape of disease around the world, checked but not eliminated by vaccines and medical treatments." And "checked" may be too strong a word. Influenza killed 50,000 Americans in 2019; Hepatitis B killed 820,000 people worldwide that year.
That, inevitably, is the fate of COVID-19. Eradication is impossible. "Every country," says The Economist, "will have to learn to live with the disease." We would revise that to say that we have to learn to live safely with COVID. We will always have to take measures.
Also, endemicity, as it's called, doesn't happen overnight. "The world's collective level of immunity to COVID is nowhere near that of other endemic respiratory diseases." The Economist cites Ali Ellebedy, an immunologist at the Washington University School of Medicine in Missouri, who says that "it will take decades for humanity to reach a comparable level of immunity to covid."
Even in a best-case scenario, older people and those with an array of co-morbidities – former Secretary of State Colin Powell, who had multiple myeloma and died Oct. 18 from COVID, fit both categories – will still be vulnerable, even if immunized, to contracting disease from others, even if also immunized.
The Economist's conclusion: "The coming years, then, will be characterized by a slow process of cyclical decline that runs in tandem with a broadening and deepening of immunity to infection."
Learning to live safely with COVID does not mean acquiescence. It means using technology to take continuous, effective actions – such as sanitizing indoor air – to guard against the spread not only of the SARS-CoV-2 virus but of other pathogens. And it means a recognition that the best we can hope for is that "slow process of cyclical decline."
Cyclical Decline Remains Elusive
Right now, however, cyclical decline is far from evident. COVID-19 cases have surged in rough cycles. In 2020, a summer surge began in the U.S. in early June and peaked in late July at a seven-day moving average of 67,000 daily cases. Infections bottomed in September at about 35,000 daily cases. The fall-winter surge began a month later, peaking at 260,000 cases in early January and falling to 15,000 in June 2021.
But this year's summer surge was far worse last year's, peaking at over 170,000 cases. Deborah Birx – the former White House coronavirus coordinator who is now chief medical and scientific advisor to ActivePure, a Dallas-based developer of technology that inactivates pathogens in the air and on surfaces – has noted that the U.S. is carrying many more cases into the winter than last year. On Sept. 30, 2020, the daily case count was 43,000; at the same date this year, it was 111,000.
A year ago, precisely no one was vaccinated. Today, 191 million Americans have received a full course of vaccines, or 57% of the total population; another 14 million have received a booster shot. Worldwide, 2.9 billion people are fully vaccinated or 40% of the population. But, when it comes to infections, the preventative power of vaccines has been counterbalanced by the Delta variant's ability to spread at more than twice the rate of previous variants – and by its virulence in attacking people who are not vaccinated. Delta became the dominant strain in the U.S. in late June, and by the end of July, it accounted for 97% of U.S. COVID infections; today, 99.6%, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The other counterbalancing factor is that the efficacy of vaccines wanes. A large study of patients in Veterans Administration hospitals, released this month, found that vaccine protection declined from 92% in March to 54% in August.
Caseload cycles appear to be geared to weather. In the summer, Americans, especially in the South, move indoors to escape the heat, and indoors is where the SARS-CoV-2 virus spreads most easily. In June and September, the months of low infection, temperatures are conducive to outdoor activity nearly everywhere in the United States, but as fall wears on, people in Northern states move indoors to escape the cold.
Southern Decline in Disease Outpaces Northern Growth, But for How Long?
Overall in the U.S., we seem to be in a period when the decline in cases in Southern states is outpacing the rise in cases in Northern states. For example, in Louisiana, daily average cases fell from 5,800 in mid-August, to just 460 on Oct. 26. Missouri over the last two months has experienced a decline of two-thirds; Mississippi and Texas, four-fifths. In the North, meanwhile, surges are occurring in such states as Vermont, which set a record on Oct. 13, registering about half-again as cases than last January's peak. Colorado cases on Oct. 20 were up 16% in two weeks; South Dakota, up 35%.
For the U.S. as a whole: The Department of Health and Human Services incidence map, which shows the case rate by county, is almost entirely red.
Still, infections have dropped by 23% in the past two weeks, and states where the surge in infections was especially disturbing in mid-September, like Ohio, Wisconsin and Indiana, have seen dramatic declines. In other states, such as Montana, sharp increases have leveled off.
One reason may be that the cold weather simply hasn't arrived yet. As the website Yale Climate Connections on Oct. 18:
The first half of autumn 2021 came in as the warmest on record for a broad set of towns and cities spanning much of the northern tier of the United States. From Bismarck to Buffalo, millions of people have experienced a September and early October milder than any observed in almost 150 years of record keeping.
For example, Buffalo, Chicago, Duluth, Fargo, and many other cities broke records for average high temperatures during the period Sept. 1-Oct. 15.
Dr. Birx said on Oct. 18 in a webinar that included members of the Michigan Assisted Living Association (MALA) and public officials, "The current case load, even though decreasing, raises significant concern for the fall and winter 2021. Planning and preparing now is critical."
Cases vs. Hospitalizations vs. Deaths
As COVID-19 slowly transitions from pandemic to endemic, infections may remain high but severe cases that lead to hospitalization and death are expected to decline – mainly because of vaccinations and better treatments. During the peak of this year's summer surge, there were two and a half times as many daily cases of COVID as during the peak of last year's. But hospitalizations rose only by one-third and deaths by one-half.
More and more evidence points to the effectiveness of vaccines against death. A study published in the The Lancet earlier this year by three researchers – Aziz Sheikh, Chris Robertson, and Bob Taylor – examined records of 1.6 million adults in Scotland who underwent testing during the period when the Delta variant was prevalent in the community. It showed the beneficial effect of vaccines on hospitalization. Then on Oct. 20, in correspondence with the New England Journal of Medicine, the researchers reported a further analysis of the dataset – this time on deaths.
They found that, among persons aged 16 to 39, no deaths at all were reported among 13,000 people who were fully vaccinated with the Pfizer-BioNTech or AstraZeneca vaccines, compared with 17 deaths among the 35,000 who were unvaccinated. Among those aged 40 to 59, there was one death for every 145 unvaccinated subjects and one death for every 722 vaccinated subjects. For those 60 or older, effectiveness against death was 90% for Pfizer and 91% for AstraZeneca.
What we cannot expect from any vaccine is preventing vaccinated people from spreading disease to unvaccinated people – or even to immune-compromised vaccinated people. That is clearly happening with Delta, and it may be the main reason we are seeing so many infections – and such persistent mortality.
Digression on Deaths
The subject of deaths is worth a digression on the true danger of COVID-19. The Economist has developed a model based on excess deaths (that is, the observed increased in mortality beyond what would normally be expected if the pandemic did not exist), which gives a more accurate picture of how many people COVID-19 is killing a day, worldwide.
Official figures understate deaths for several reasons, including the exclusion from the rolls of victims who did not test positive for the disease before dying, "which can be a substantial majority in places with little capacity for testing." In addition, "the pandemic has made it harder for doctors to treat other conditions and discouraged people from going to hospital, which may have indirectly caused an increase in fatalities from diseases other than covid-19."
While the official global death count on Oct. 18 was 6,600 daily deaths, The Economist's analysts estimate that actual deaths were closer to 30,000, with a 95% confidence interval between 15,000 and 40,000. Excess deaths have fallen by more than half from the high of 70,000 in May.
Nearly two years after the initial COVID-19 outbreak, the FDA has given full approval to one vaccine (Pfizer-BioNTech) and emergency authorization to two others (Moderna and Johnson & Johnson). In addition, the FDA has approved Viklury, an intravenous anti-viral drug developed by Gilead for hospitalized adults and some children, and has given emergency authorization to several monoclonal antibody treatments for mild and moderate cases of the disease and, in one case (Regeneron) as a prophylactic for people who may have been exposed to COVID but haven't contracted it yet.
On Oct. 1, Merck and Ridgeback announced that their investigational oral antiviral called Molnupiravir "reduced the risk of hospitalization or death by approximately 50%" compared to a placebo for patients with mild or moderate disease. And Pfizer and BioNTech have presented data to the FDA, which was released Oct. 22, showing that its vaccine was 90% effective in preventing symptomatic COVID-19 in children ages 5 to 11. A meeting of advisors to the FDA on whether to approve the vaccine for kids that young is scheduled for Oct. 26.
In short, enormous progress has been made in a short time, but there is still a great deal we don't know about the disease in an epidemiological, or public health, sense. For example, how much does the waxing and waning of infections depend on seasonality and how much on the penetration of vaccines? How dangerous is spread from vaccinated to unvaccinated people? How important is masking and social distancing – in real, concrete terms?
Public health experts have not adequately answered practical questions, such as whether children in school should be masked all day or whether, even in a community without widespread disease, people should go to a concert hall where they are surrounded by 2,000 music lovers, some of whom are inevitably unvaccinated. What are the odds of becoming infected inside a restaurant as opposed to sitting outside? The question of who should get a booster shot is still murky, and a CDC panel only on Oct. 21 recommended that Americans can choose among the three vaccine offerings for their booster, no matter which company developed their first and second shots.
The Japanese Mystery, or Is It?
Puzzles abound. An apparent one is that "Japan has become a stunning, and somewhat mysterious, coronavirus success story," as Mari Yamaguchi of the Associated Press wrote on Oct. 17. Daily cases on Aug. 25 were 23,000; on Oct. 20, they were 434. Only 10 people died from COVID on Oct. 20 in Japan, a country with about 40% of the population of the United States, where, on that same date, 1,700 people died.
In Japan, "the bars are packed, the trains are crowded, and the mood is celebratory, despite a general bafflement over what, exactly, is behind the sharp drop," wrote Yamaguchi. "Japan, unlike other places in Europe and Asia, has never had anything close to a lockdown, just a series of relatively toothless states of emergency."
So what's the answer? It appears to be an aggressive vaccination campaign that pushed rates from 15% in early July to 68% three months later. In other words, nearly half the Japanese population is living with the effects of fresh (that is, less than three months old) vaccine inside their bodies. In the U.S., by contrast, vaccinations peaked in mid-April at nearly 3 million doses per day and are now down to one-fourth that level. So, for vast numbers of Americans, vaccinations were administered six to ten months ago and effectiveness has waned.
Within a few months, Japan, too, may experience a waning, which is why this Reuters headline is poignant: "Japan's dip in COVID-19 cases baffles experts; winter 'nightmare' still a risk."
Some Certainties About COVID Spread Do Exist
There are things we do know about the virus for certain: that it is especially deadly for those who are old or have compromising conditions and that it spreads easiest indoors. As a result, ventilation plus technology that can continuously deactivate pathogens – not just filter them – is critical as a layered defense against the virus, especially in nursing homes and assisted-living facilities.
At the same Oct. 18 webinar at which Dr. Birx spoke, John LaRochelle, a veteran of the giant services firm Sodexo and now president of Lighthouse Environmental Infection Protection, discussed the challenges and opportunities of the pandemic for assisted-living facilities. He pointed out that "tragedy leads change" – in this case, a complete reassessment of the dangers of all kinds of infection in settings like nursing homes.
LaRochelle warned that there will be other pandemics as well as an increase in antibiotic-resistant bacteria and the spread of insect-to-human and animal-to-human diseases. Disinfection efforts, he said, often fail because treatments are difficult for humans to deploy. What is required is not merely ventilation but a layer of continuous, enhanced disinfection that is automatic – that doesn't require daily or hourly human intervention. He cited ActivePure's advanced photocatalysis technology, which is FDA-cleared and, he noted as an example, reduced Staphlococcus Epidermis Gram-positive bacteria by 99.9999% within 60 minutes after treatment.
'Who Wants to Go Back to a Building That Isn't Healthy'
In an Atlantic article on Oct. 3, Joseph Allen, an associate professor at the T.H. Chan School of Public Health, reminded readers that, if they are in a typical office, home, or school, "about 3 percent of the air you breathed in recently came out of the lungs of the people in the room with you right now." And that air can be contaminated with SARS-CoV-2, which spreads almost entirely indoors, or other pathogens.
"How many pathogens you take in," Allen writes, "depends on one factor in particular: how much fresh air is coming into the building….. Before the coronavirus pandemic, the interior designers and HR professionals who decide how offices look paid little attention to ventilation. Allen's point in the piece is that "the cool new [office] amenity won't be a foosball table. It'll be something we should have had all along—clean air."
He concludes, "COVID-19 has prompted a universal awakening about the power of our buildings to make us sick or keep us well. At this point, really, who wants to go back to a building that isn't healthy?"
That statement is certainly correct, and it reflects the comment of LaRochelle above about tragedy leading to change for the better. But ventilation is not the only way to provide safe air in offices or other interior spaces. In fact, because good ventilation requires very frequent exchanges of air, it can be a very expensive, energy-intensive way to sanitize the air and a way that harms the environment.
There's another problem with ventilation. As Allen admits, "Bringing in more outdoor air should be good for cognition, but outdoor air is polluted with particles that hurt cognition." His answer is filtration. "By capturing pollutants before people inside have to breathe them, buildings can give people the benefits of outdoor air without the downside."
But filters are inefficient. They have to wait for pathogens to drift to them in order to capture them. Allen does not mention a much better technology: an advanced photocatalytic process that deactivate pathogens swiftly in interior air without creating ozone or volatile organic compounds.


text:
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London is the financial and cultural center of Britain, and also its capital. The city has many airports as there are a number of international passengers who arrive in this city regularly. The city's six airports see millions of passengers every year. Gatwick and Heathrow airports are the most prominent of these six.
Flights from London to New York may take off from any of London's six airports. Of these, Heathrow is the largest and the busiest. It is closely followed by Gatwick in terms of popularity and stature. Both Gatwick and Heathrow can easily be reached from London city center. London City Airport is the closest to the city center.
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To get from London to New York, confirm from which airport your plane is taking off. If your plane is taking off from Gatwick or Heathrow, hop on one of the trains that take you to the airport. This is most likely going to be either the Gatwick or Heathrow Express. If you need to go to Luton, take an express train to reach in time. Stansted and Southend airports are further away, so make sure you start well in advance. If your plane is taking off from London City Airport, just call a taxi as it is within the city.
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One of the most important cities of the world, New York has something for everyone, even the most jaded travelers. Coffee and New York go hand in hand and one of the best ways to discover New York City is through its many cafés. Begin your day at a café in Greenwich Village, the original bohemian hangout of New Yorkers. Head towards Coney Island to people-watch on the beach, and relax at one of the many cafés in this area. Explore Brooklyn in the evening, which is slowly transforming into the café capital of New York City thanks to the many artists and writers who have moved to this borough.
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Your London to NYC flights may land at JFK or LaGuardia. It might also land at Newark Liberty International Airport. If your flight lands at John F. Kennedy International Airport or at LaGuardia Airport, all you need to do is get on a New York City Subway train and head toward Lower Manhattan to reach all the famous landmarks of the city. However, if your flight lands at Newark Liberty International Airport, you might have to spend a little time traveling, as it is located in the nearby state of New Jersey. You can take an express bus or a shuttle to reach your destination in New York City from Newark Airport.
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Burnamwood has had many meanings to many people.
Camp Burnamwood is located on a 500-acre stretch of land nestled between the foothills of Central Appalachia and the Kentucky Bluegrass. Established in 1958, Burnamwood began as a cooperative venture of three Presbyterian groups in Eastern and Central Kentucky.
During the summer, Burnamwood hosts residential summer camps for 1st grade through 12th grade students. Additionally, throughout the year, it hosts youth and adult groups from around the nation in the Burnamwood Appalachian Ministry (BAM). Burnamwood also provides weekend retreats for youth as well as opportunities to rent out the camp. We believe strongly in the value of camping ministry, recognizing it as vital to the faith development of all people – children, youth, and adults.
In Spring 2012, the state of Kentucky recognized Burnamwood as a Registered Natural Area, deeming it a "significant component of Kentucky's natural heritage." We invite you to become part of our Burnamwood Family.
For some, it is the only place that they can see a glorious, starlit sky, without interference from anything else. For some, it is the place that they can understand how inspiring God's creation is. For some, it is the place that has deepened their spiritual connection. For some, it is the place that they they heard their own call to ministry. For some, it is the place where they met life-long friends. For some, it is the place where they felt they were part of a community of love and compassion. For some, it is the place where they learned what it meant to be a leader. For some, it is where they donated their time, helping others in need. For some, it is all of this and more.
Burnamwood shares God's awesome setting, where all people in all seasons forge connections with God, learn about themselves, build relationships, and serve others.
Burnamwood Camp and Conference Center is a 501 (c) 3 non-profit organization under the Presbytery of Transylvania.


text:
Laboratory proof of personnel safety's worth
September 1, 2012 Standards Council of Canada Environment 0
For the victims and families of a range of different crimes committed in Canada, bringing closure to their ordeals is often directly tied to the reliability of results produced by specialized laboratories — those with the competence to conduct, for example, forensic DNA testing. Similarly thousands of Canadians are personally affected by laboratories that conduct environmental and drinking water tests, or examine the chemical composition of various substances.
Beyond the exact science being performed by any given laboratory, which demands consistency and adherence to agreed-upon standards for optimal accuracy and reliability of test results, the nature of laboratory work also requires that an equivalent amount of attention be paid to proper laboratory safety and hygiene.
Depending on the type of tests that are being conducted, there is potential for grave danger in a laboratory setting, especially when toxic materials are involved. Establishing appropriate safety measures, in accordance with the requirements prescribed by the applicable Canadian provincial government will affect a laboratory's performance as well as its trustworthiness.
"There's a lot of focus put on managers and supervisors to make sure we are driving the right safety culture and on ensuring that people are safe in the lab," said Paul Fewer, national director of quality & EHS at Maxxam Analytics from his home base in Bedford, Nova Scotia. Maxxam provides a range of analytical services and solutions to the environmental , petroleum, food science and DNA industries while also working with various police agencies.
"Maxxam performs full service forensic biology casework analysis for the RCMP. This includes case receipts, the screening of items… DNA analysis, interpretation, reporting and court testimony, if required," said Fewer, adding that it is a privilege to conduct that degree of work for the RCMP and police agencies. The staff working in Maxxam labs is required to follow specific guidelines intended to keep them safe when dealing with potentially dangerous materials or substances. Although many labs strive to ensure staff safety, safety programs in and of themselves don't ensure quality results. Apart from safety protocols, Canadian laboratories must also be accredited.
"Maxxam goes beyond accreditation with our ongoing Quality Assurance (QA) systems and processes," said Fewer. "We recognize the responsibility that comes with this work and we dedicate much of our working day to ensure quality of work and thoroughness and accuracy in analysis and reporting." In addition, Maxxam's QA group and Health and Safety group are managed nationally and report to the CEO rather than being managed locally by the operations groups.
"This approach is something that also goes above and beyond what we're actually required to do with accreditation," explains Fewer. While lab safety implementation and strategies for risk mitigation may vary, according to Fewer the baseline factor in all successful, competing laboratories in Canada is third-party accreditation and adherence to standards.
Anna-Marie MacFarlane, laboratory manager with PEI Analytical Laboratories, agrees. "When you adhere to standards, you have a measure… and when you're in a very small province, a national or international standard (can be applied) to testing and you have that bar set," said MacFarlane. MacFarlane adds that lab safety is fundamental, and that it needs to be taken seriously at all times because there is always potential for risk.
"One of the most important aspects of laboratory work is that your staff needs to be safe when they're doing their work," said MacFarlane.
PEI Analytical Laboratories, is a full service establishment consisting of three main departments that conduct water microbiology, soil, feed and water chemistry testing as well as plant health diagnostics. In July 2012, all three departments–previously housed in separate buildings–were brought into the Charlottetown, PEI location. Given that approximately 50 per cent of the island's drinking water comes from private wells, citizens of the province are impacted daily by the laboratory's water microbiology testing efforts.
"A lot of small businesses are directly affected by the results that come out of this lab," explains MacFarlane. "There are also a lot of tourist accommodations here, so there is a regulatory need for the water in those places to be monitored." The laboratory's adherence to internationally recognized standards (ISO/IEC 17025) enables lab staff to ensure that appropriate water testing results are achieved.
"We have the ability to trace back results… everything is documented now, so we have proof when someone asks us," said MacFarlane, reiterating the benefits of accreditation and standardization.
The use of standards, and the ongoing accreditation of a laboratory to those standards, contributes to a lab's ability to incorporate safety into the methods and protocols upon which lab personnel rely to perform testing. According to Carol Ottens, a Quality Assurance Officer with the New Brunswick Department of Environment's Analytical Services, their laboratory has an extremely low incident rate which can be directly attributed to staff making safety a priority.
"Health and safety protocols are integral to all work performed at our laboratory," said Ottens. "Our health and safety committee, which includes representation from all sections, performs regular safety inspections and works together to ensure that all staff have the safest possible working environment."
"It would be fair to say that there are more similarities than differences (in lab testing) as a result of standardization," she said. The New Brunswick Analytical Services laboratory has the competence to conduct testing for microbiological, organic and inorganic parameters and conducts a large number of tests on well water. The protection of the environment and the safety of public and private drinking water supplies is a big priority for the laboratory, according to Ottens.
Regardless of where and what type of scientific testing is being undertaken in Canada, adherence to internationally recognized standards, as demonstrated through accreditation enables a laboratory to demonstrate their worth. A lab's value proposition is inherently tied to the safety and quality practices which that laboratory has put in place.
The Standards Council of Canada (SCC) is Canada's national accreditation body. Based on internationally recognized criteria, SCC accredits testing and calibration laboratories, organizations that develop standards, as well as those that verify the conformity of products, processes, systems and services to specific standards. To learn more about SCC accreditation and/or to obtain a complete listing of SCC accredited organizations visit www.scc.ca.
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text:
Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/wpaper/hal-01933876.html
What Are Axiomatizations Good For?
Itzhak Gilboa
(GREGH - Groupement de Recherche et d'Etudes en Gestion à HEC - HEC Paris - Ecole des Hautes Etudes Commerciales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
Andrew Postlewaite
(University of Pennsylvania [Philadelphia])
Larry Samuelson
(Department of Economics - Yale University [New Haven])
David Schmeidler
(Tel Aviv University [Tel Aviv])
In light of the interest in axiomatic models of decision making in recent years, one is led to ask, in what ways do the axiomatic deriva- tions advance economics? If economists are interested in predicting how people behave, without a pretense to change individual decision making, how can they benefit from representation theorems, which are no more than equivalence results? We address this question, propose several ways in which representation results can still be useful, and discuss their potential implications to axiomatic decision theory.
Itzhak Gilboa & Andrew Postlewaite & Larry Samuelson & David Schmeidler, 2018. "What Are Axiomatizations Good For?," Working Papers hal-01933876, HAL.
Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01933876
DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3178761
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal-hec.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01933876
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Belles-Sampera, Jaume & Merigó, José M. & Guillén, Montserrat & Santolino, Miguel, 2013. "The connection between distortion risk measures and ordered weighted averaging operators," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 411-420.
Jaume Belles-Sampera & José M. Merigó & Montserrat Guillén & Miguel Santolino, 2012. "The connection between distortion risk measures and ordered weighted averaging operators," IREA Working Papers 201201, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Jan 2012.
Laurent Denant-Boemont & Olivier L'Haridon, 2013. "La rationalité à l'épreuve de l'économie comportementale," Revue française d'économie, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(2), pages 35-89.
Laurent Denant-Boèmont & Olivier l'Haridon, 2013. "La rationalité à l'épreuve de l'économie comportementale," Economics Working Paper Archive (University of Rennes 1 & University of Caen) 201323, Center for Research in Economics and Management (CREM), University of Rennes 1, University of Caen and CNRS.
Laurent Denant-Boèmont & Olivier L'haridon, 2013. "La rationalité à l'épreuve de l'économie comportementale," Post-Print halshs-00921070, HAL.
Levy, Haim & Levy, Moshe, 2002. "Experimental test of the prospect theory value function: A stochastic dominance approach," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 1058-1081, November.
Ali al-Nowaihi & Sanjit Dhami & Mengxing Wei, 2018. "Quantum Decision Theory and the Ellsberg Paradox," CESifo Working Paper Series 7158, CESifo.
Trabelsi, Mohamed Ali, 2006. "Les nouveaux modèles de décision dans le risque et l'incertain : quel apport ? [The new models of decision under risk or uncertainty : What approach?]," MPRA Paper 25442, University Library of Munich, Germany.
Trabelsi, Mohamed Ali, 2008. "Peut-on encore parler des mesures de performance ? [One is able again to speak of performance measures?]," MPRA Paper 25443, University Library of Munich, Germany.
Marcello Basili & Carlo Zappia, 2007. "The weight of argument and non-additive measures: a note," Department of Economic Policy, Finance and Development (DEPFID) University of Siena 003, Department of Economic Policy, Finance and Development (DEPFID), University of Siena.
Izhakian, Yehuda, 2017. "Expected utility with uncertain probabilities theory," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 91-103.
Bernard, Carole & Ghossoub, Mario, 2009. "Static Portfolio Choice under Cumulative Prospect Theory," MPRA Paper 15446, University Library of Munich, Germany.
Elisabeth Jardin, 1996. "Problèmes d'assurance et utilité décumulative," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 47(4), pages 921-935.
Ali al-Nowaihi & Sanjit Dhami, 2016. "The Ellsberg paradox: A challenge to quantum decision theory?," Discussion Papers in Economics 16/08, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
Aldo Montesano, 2019. "On some aspects of decision theory under uncertainty: rationality, price-probabilities and the Dutch book argument," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 87(1), pages 57-85, July.
Liang Zou, 2006. "An Alternative to Prospect Theory," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 7(1), pages 1-28, May.
Basili, Marcello & Zappia, Carlo, 2009. "Keynes's "non-numerical" probabilities and non-additive measures," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 419-430, June.
Karni, Edi & Maccheroni, Fabio & Marinacci, Massimo, 2015. "Ambiguity and Nonexpected Utility," Handbook of Game Theory with Economic Applications,, Elsevier.
Mohammed Abdellaoui & Olivier L'Haridon & Horst Zank, 2010. "Separating curvature and elevation: A parametric probability weighting function," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 41(1), pages 39-65, August.
Olivier l'Haridon & Mohammed Abdellaoui & Horst Zank, 2010. "Separating curvature and elevation: A parametric probability weighting function," Post-Print hal-00528381, HAL.
Ulrich Schmidt & Horst Zank, 2008. "Risk Aversion in Cumulative Prospect Theory," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(1), pages 208-216, January.
Schmidt, Ulrich & Horst Zank, 2002. "Risk Aversion in Cumulative Prospect Theory," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 162, Royal Economic Society.
U Schmidt & H Zank, 2002. "Risk Aversion in Cumulative Prospect Theory," Economics Discussion Paper Series 0207, Economics, The University of Manchester.
Epper, Thomas & Fehr-Duda, Helga, 2017. "A Tale of Two Tails: On the Coexistence of Overweighting and Underweighting of Rare Extreme Events," Economics Working Paper Series 1705, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science.
Vjollca Sadiraj, 2014. "Probabilistic risk attitudes and local risk aversion: a paradox," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 77(4), pages 443-454, December.
Vjollca Sadiraj, 2012. "Probabilistic Risk Attitudes and Local Risk Aversion: a Paradox," Experimental Economics Center Working Paper Series 2012-07, Experimental Economics Center, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
Border, Kim C. & Segal, Uzi, 1997. "Coherent Odds and Subjective Probability," UWO Department of Economics Working Papers 9717, University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics.
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B4 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology
D0 - Microeconomics - - General
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My baby is growing up too fast. She is already sitting up on her own, and last night for the first time, she slept through the night!!!!! I am such a proud Mother.
Kayla she is so stinkin' cute!! I love her hair bow!!!
What a cutie! Cute, cute!


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If the prison doesn't want tourists; why let them in?
I've never been to Bolivia, but I have read the Marching Powder book, and I found it fascinating.
I don't agree that this is really the fault of the tourists though. What other working prison in the world allows tourists to visit freely?!
In small numbers I don't see the problem - it's a fascinating experience for the tourists, and a money earner for the guides and guards.
It's a prison - and it's the prison authorities that are allowing the tourists to enter. It would be easy to stop tourists getting in - if the prison wanted to stop it.
Comments for If the prison doesn't want tourists; why let them in?
It isn't the prison that doesn't want tourists. Obviously the prison officials, prisoners and guides who organize this tour and profit from it aren't going to stop it.
To me the point the author is trying to make is that tourists do have the choice to "just say no" and by doing so these tours would simply cease to exist.
No demand, no reason to supply.


Learn to apply basic celestial navigation theory and practice to determine latitude and longitude at sea using a sextant and Nautical Almanac.
Learn to safely and efficiently dock an auxiliary powered (single inboard or outboard engine) sailboat. Knowledge of basic auxiliary power theory, engine and steering controls, proper use of dock lines, crew communication and safety.


text:
@interface XLEListTestViewController : XLEDemoViewController

@end

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaGithub


text:
For and Against a Common Eurozone Budget
Published on 17 January 2013 16:48 , Adelina Marini, Zagreb, Twitter: @AdelinaMarini
One of the reasons why many analysts, politicians and decision-makers consider the EU summit in December a disappointment is that it gave away ambition. One of the most ambitious proposals that could be found in the drafts for the future of the EU and the euro area in particular of the Four Presidents (of the European Council, the ECB, the Commission and the Eurogroup) and separately of Jose Manuel Barroso, was the creation of a common eurozone budget, called in the draft documents a 'fiscal capacity' for absorbing shocks. The idea in the report of the Four Presidents, presented by Herman Van Rompuy a week before the December European Council, is much more contained and therefore more realistic than Jose Manuel Barroso's ideas in his blueprint, presented in the end of November.
In the report, it was envisaged work on the fiscal capacity to begin in 2014 and to function as a budget or a fund that will absorb specific national shocks through a system of insurances. The capacity can be used, for instance, in cases of excessive unemployment as is the current situation in the EU. Alas, the leaders decided on December 13th that at this stage there is no need such an idea to be discussed. But as the roots of the problems in the eurozone and the incapability of its current architecture to solve them will continue to create the need of mechanisms like the fiscal capacity, it would be a bit hasty to throw away that idea entirely. And not a few think-tanks are deliberating quite in depth on it. I will draw your attention to two of the most popular analytical centres in Europe - the economic think-tank Bruegel and the Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS).
Bruegel: without a common budget the eurozone cannot function
The Bruegel's analysis is very thorough and is made by Guntram B. Wolff, deputy director of the think tank. Mr Wolff worked at the European Commission on the macroeconomics of the euro area, he was an economist in Deutsche Bank and an adviser in the International Monetary Fund. He uses as a basis of his analysis, as many other experts do in that area, comparisons with the federal system in the US. He acknowledges that the European Union is different in many aspects pointing out that in the first place the EU budget is very small in terms of the overall size of the economy (a little over 1% of gross national income). He points out, though, that in most cases the federal budgets are used for stabilisation, which is precisely what is needed in the case of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). According to empirical studies, more than 40% of the economic shocks are absorbed by the capital markets, some 25% by the credit markets and only 10-20 per cent by the federal budget.
One of the main goals of the ideas for a common budget of the eurozone is to break the vicious circle between banks and taxpayers - a goal, set in the EU conclusions from June 29th, 2012, from which, however, there can be observed a retreat and only the first pillar of that goal is put in place - the common banking supervision. Guntram Wolff underscores that government debt is not the only driver of interest rates on sovereign bonds. External debt in general is much more powerful because the overall indebtedness of the economy has a greater significance for the capability of governments to use fiscal policy as a tool to absorb shocks with strong magnitude as unsustainable private debt often turns into sovereign debt. The creation of a banking union in the EU could unclog the credit channel, thus leading to stabilisation.
The initial idea of the Maastricht Treaty which establishes the EU single currency is fiscal stabilisation to be achieved only on national level. The assumption was that governments would be capable to borrow from the market in order to calm national shocks down. A federal transfer system was not envisaged so fiscal risk sharing was not envisaged, the analyst recalls. It was assumed that the credit market would work to ensure a sufficient level of risk sharing. A limit of 3% of the budget deficit was set because it was believed that this would be a sufficient automatic stabiliser to address possible shocks.
The problem is, however, that credit markets often retreat from regions that have huge external debt and it is those regions that are most at risk of deep recessions as a result of the significant money retreat. The attempts for adjustment on a domestic (national) level usually lead to increasing indebtedness of the entire economy as the experience in the eurozone shows. In general, regional governments (in that particular case the national governments of the member states are taken into account) are incapable of providing an efficient fiscal response to big and deep recessions because of the unwillingness of investors to finance external debt. Thus, national fiscal policy becomes dysfunctional. By definition, the author recalls, monetary policy cannot deal with deep recessions which are purely regional.
In his analysis, Guntram Wolff dwells on another interesting element of the developments in the eurozone crisis, which is a situation where there is a shock simultaneously in all the regional economies of the "federation", addressed by the regional (national) governments. The effort, however, is doomed to failure mainly because the member states restrict as much as possible their participation hoping their neighbours will respond with more. This can be prevented via strong mechanisms for coordination. The economist is convinced that regional fiscal policy has a weaker impact than centrally provided stimuli.
In other words, a monetary union such as the eurozone needs a common budget in order to provide temporary, but significant, transfer of resources in case of big regional shocks to the most affected regions; to have an instrument for counteraction of severe recessions in the eurozone as a whole when monetary policy is not that strong and fiscal policy is more appropriate; and to provide public goods for the zone as a whole.
Guntram Wolff reviews several options for provision of assistance through a shocks absorption function, pointing the risks as well. For example, support for countries affected by asymmetric business cycle shocks should be used to boost structural changes. Usually, assistance is prolonged or stops the adjustments of shocks. That is why it is important to demand the funds to be allocated in exchange for changes as is currently being done with the troubled countries, provided with assistance by the bailout funds of the eurozone.
Mr Wolff believes that this will be a huge challenge pointing for instance to the ongoing dependence of some regions on assistance in existing federations like Italy, Germany, Belgium and others. Greece received huge transfers from the EU ever since it is a member of the Union from 1981, but structural reforms have not been implemented entirely and that led to the loss of competitiveness and to current account deficits, which for their part led to the culmination of the Greek crisis in April 2010. So, to apply a structural adjustment a closer link between the eurozone budget and structural reforms is needed.
A type of shocks that could be dealt with by a eurozone budget is unemployment insurance systems, as is mentioned in the Four Presidents' report. That, however, bears huge risks, according to Guntram Wolff. In general, he explains, the unemployment insurance systems do not have significant impact macro-economically to absorb regional shocks. Besides, the creation of a common insurance system for unemployment will be a very difficult task mainly because the big differences between the labour market institutions of the member states. They defer significantly in terms of labour market regulation and institutions which will have significant implications on the duration and type of unemployment. A common scheme could motivate countries to adjust their labour market in such a way to maximise their benefits from the common resources.
Another type of shocks is business cycle. What can be done is to supplement the Stability and Growth Pact, which currently is centred around budgetary balance, with a system for financial support based on business cycle. The countries whose output is significantly below potential could be allowed to have deficits with the help of common resources. In general, the Commission could take the task to define the output potential and the size of assistance on the basis of clear rules. A deficiency of that idea is, as in the excessive deficit procedure, that potential output is a concept that is attractive in theory but quite controversial in practise. Linking payments for countries with unobservable variable is at least as controversial as defining fiscal consolidation on the same basis. Besides, it will be difficult to control how transfers are spent.
The third element Guntram Wolff dwells upon is often discussed in the context of the eurozone crisis. It is the huge spreads - the deviations of interest rates between member states. An issue of which spoke Austria's Chancellor during a debate in the European Parliament recently. The eurozone common budget could be used to compensate the large spreads. For instance, an option could be considered for automatic payments of 50% of the spread compared to the average interest rate. In this way, a country with an interest rate of 6%, given the average rate is 3%, could get 1.5%*60% or 0.9% of GDP in the form of a transfer. The countries whose rates are below the average will pay into the system, thus reducing their benefits from being a safe haven.
In this way, the problem will be approached directly in countries that are thrown out of the market during big shocks. In the same time, however, the pressure for consolidation of public finances and reduction of debt must remain strong. A shortcoming here is that this could lead to permanent transfers which is mentioned as impossible in Van Rompuy's report. Apart from that is raised the issue whether politics should define interest rates or the market should be left to work freely instead. The analyst quotes in support of that approach what the European Central Bank is already doing through its outright monetary transactions operation (OMT). In practise the same can be done through the common budget because this would reduce the gains the benchmark Deutsche Bund enjoys.
Beyond the purely theoretical issues about what should the common budget look like and what problems should it address, is the simpler and more pragmatic question - how big should the budget be. Guntram Wolff suggests that stabilisation of regional shocks would require circa 1 per cent of gross domestic product of the eurozone. If to this is added another 1 per cent of revenues should be more than enough to ensure stabilisation and the necessary borrowing in case of a big banking crisis. In other words, around 2% of GDP would be sufficient.
The conclusion of the economist is that the creation of a fiscal capacity is essential for the euro area, as Wolff even believes that it should not remain closed for the non-euro countries which are obliged or are in a process of joining the single currency. According to him, the countries that are pegged to the euro (like Bulgaria for example) and those who are in the mechanism for preparation for membership (ERM II) are more than recommended to participate. The functioning of the EMU could improve significantly through a more ambitious European fiscal union that would consist of strict rules for borrowing on national level, centrally defined deficit for the eurozone as a whole and decisions taken on a central level for the distribution of the deficit throughout the euro area. That would allow for the creation of federal eurodebt, is the opinion of Guntram Wolff.
The false promise of a eurozone budget
This is how is titled the brief comment of Daniel Gros. He is a director of the Centre for European Policy Studies and is an economist too. He also worked as adviser in the International Monetary Fund and the European Commission. He rejects using the American federal model when discussing risk sharing in the euro area as a basis because, he points out, that is misleading. In the US the unemployment insurance, for instance, is organised on a state level. The federal government interferes only in cases of big nation-wide recession and provides some additional benefits for the long-term employed. That support, however, is allocated to all states, so a conclusion to what extent does this help the most affected is difficult to make.
Daniel Gros quotes Spain to explain where in fact is rooted the problem when it comes to unemployment. The level of unemployment in Spain is nearing 30 per cent, which in general is a sufficient justification for the creation of some form of a shock absorber. The Spanish unemployment, however, the economist explains, has always been relatively higher than the eurozone average and registered a drop to single-digit levels only once as a result of the construction bubble. Any common scheme for unemployment in the euro area will create the risk of financing long-term unemployment created by unreformed national institutions which for decades have appeared absolutely insusceptible to reforms.
The analyst points out, however, that there is an example which can be taken from the US. According to him, one of the reasons why the global financial crisis did not lead to regional banking crises in the US is that the American "banking union" provides real guarantees against local financial shocks. So, for example, the local real estate bubble in the state of Nevada was as severe as in Spain or Ireland. But in Nevada, which is commensurate to Ireland, the losses of the local banking system were absorbed to a large extent by the institutions of the American "banking union" - more specifically the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and the federal agencies for mortgage re-financing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. It is believed that the support for Nevada was 10-20% of its "national" income, which entirely fits into Ireland's effort. Daniel Gros claims that Ireland would have been in much a better shape had it received such a transfer.
Mr Gros's conclusion is simple, as he puts it himself: The euro's long-term stability depends far more on completing the plans for a European banking union than it does on creating some new budget for the eurozone. The problem is, however, that this too is losing ambition, judging from the attitudes in Europe at the moment, but this will be very clear on January 21st, when the first meeting of the Eurogroup will take place, during which one of the main elements of the banking union - to allow the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) to directly recapitalise banks - will be discussed for the first time this year.
The Banking Union
news Bulgaria Entered a Schengen Mode for the Eurozone Too
news Will EU Miss the Window of Opportunity to Deepen the EMU?
news ESM To Transform into a European Monetary Fund


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>I'm going to see my neurologist tomorrow in spasticity clinic. Hopefully this will be a joint appt with my physio (it's meant to be but the track record on that isn't good) to discuss whether I need more Botox. And for me to have the jabs if so. I suspect that will be the case. I also wonder if my baclofen will be upped.
I described that to a friend as "going to see the man with the needles" last week and thought that was an intriguing idea for writing.
Today is day 35 of 100 which feels like a huge number of days achieved. Especially as I almost forgot to write at all.


wiki.binbash.eu - Java Programming [Archive] - Simple way to get console style input and output in an applet?
Home static Java Programming [Archive] - Simple way to get console style input and output in an applet?
Java Programming [Archive] - Simple way to get console style input and output in an applet?
Simple way to get console style input and output in an applet?
Obviously the traditional graphical UIs are available but is there a simple way to preserve System.in and System.out such that an equivalent operates through the applet window.
Re: Simple way to get console style input and output in an applet?
Well, the java console already gives you System.out results. I've never tried using System.in through it, but i wouldn't be surprised if that works too. Have you tried it?
You can remap System.in etc. with java.lang.System.setIn etc.
So you could write a GUI element, or write some Listeners that you use with an existing GUI element, that provides InputStreams and PrintStreams, and then remap the System.* streams to those.
It may be better though, rather than remapping System.* streams, to refactor your command-line programs so that they don't hardcode their I/O to/from the System.* streams.
Yeah, you could write a little GUI that has a text field for entry and a text area for output. You redirect System.out to the text area, then push text field text into System.in.
I like overriding system.out system.in. Once the applet is done it should only have to be written once other then changing the Yourclass.main() line. Rewriting every little stupid program to use a GUI involves work for every little stupid program~ instead of one solution for all.
Which leaves strategies for pushing streams into a console type view/controller archetype unworked. Seperating them seems quickest. Writing them in one pane seems hard if your thinking about JTextPane. But its something thats the most natural way to port console programs.
The output to a JTextPane is easy. The input however involves having some specific knowledge about how JTextPane's model operates. Quicker might just be painting and taking input yourself. At the moment im investigating JTextPanes models specific ability to output input to a stream. If it can generically output to a stream then that stream can be wrapped and put into system.in. However there is the question of what happens to system.out piped in getting piped out to system.in that depends on specifics.
I guess you could add a document listener to the JTextArea's document and for each char, push it into System.in. I think it'd be easier to have a separate input field, and when the user hits enter, the action listener takes the text and pushes it into System.in.
Before you do this you may want to write a quick test to confirm that you're allowed to remap System.* streams within applets. It occurs to me that this may be something that the sandbox does not allow.
If your applications were written with a hardcoded assumption that all I/O comes from System.in/out, then arguably they're not so great that they're worth reusing without refactoring.
Learn to say "im not sure but its the problems fault" in 250 words or more.


text:
local cFunc = {};		-- Local Functions
local cSetting = {};	-- Local Settings

RadialMenuManager = {};
RadialMenuManager.__index = RadialMenuManager;

--[[

]]

-- ///////////////////////////////
-- ///// New 				//////
-- ///// Returns: Object	//////
-- ///////////////////////////////

function RadialMenuManager:New(...)
	local obj = setmetatable({}, {__index = self});
	if obj.Constructor then
		obj:Constructor(...);
	end
	return obj;
end

-- ///////////////////////////////
-- ///// Trigger	 		//////
-- ///// Returns: void		//////
-- ///////////////////////////////

function RadialMenuManager:Trigger(ePlayer, sBefehl, tblArguments)
	local sArguments = "";
	for i = 2, #tblArguments, 1 do
		sArguments = sArguments..tblArguments[i];
	end

	return executeCommandHandler(sBefehl, ePlayer, sArguments)
end

-- ///////////////////////////////
-- ///// Constructor 		//////
-- ///// Returns: void		//////
-- ///////////////////////////////

function RadialMenuManager:Constructor(...)
	-- Events
	addEvent("onRadialMenuTrigger", true);

	self.triggerFunc = function(...) self:Trigger(source, ...) end;

	-- Event Handlers --
	addEventHandler("onRadialMenuTrigger", getRootElement(), self.triggerFunc)
	--outputDebugString("[CALLING] RadialMenuManager: Constructor");
end

-- EVENT HANDLER --


This domaine has its origins in the early 18th century, but was most recently run (until his death in 2017) by the charming Luc Camus. Luc's own father died when Luc was only 12 in 1961 and Luc took the reins of the domaine in 1972. This is a winery that, in a more celebrated commune, would rightly be very famous. It is just that their home commune of Savigny is so overlooked: shame, as it is to where the cognoscenti go for a proper bargain. Camus-Bruchon is now run by Guillaume, Luc's son, who works c. 8 hectares of vines in Savigny, Beaune, Chorey and Pommard. The Savignys, from exceptionally old vines, are some of the finest wines of the appellation.