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I'm A Celebrity star John Barrowman would do Celebrity X Factor 'at the drop of a hat' on one condition
Sarah DeenTuesday 14 May 2019 3:13 pm
Get John Barrowman on The X Factor (Picture: FilmMagic/Metro.co.uk)
John Barrowman is more than ready for a role in a celebrity version of The X Factor.
The X Factor is said to be undergoing a dramatic revamp this year to refresh the show, inviting famous faces and previous acts to perform.
While details are still to be confirmed, if Simon Cowell is still putting a panel together he should look no further than the I'm A Celebrity…Get Me Out Of Here! star.
But there's one condition – he's got to enjoy himself.
'I'd love to do [The X Factor],' he told Metro.co.uk.
'It's one of those things where if I'm asked I'd do it, like anything, I'd do it at the drop of a hat as long as I know I'm gonna have fun doing it.'
He went on: 'I love being a judge because I love seeing people being challenged.
'Being well bred in musical theatre and dance and singing and performance, I think I'd be a good judge.'
The actor would also be up for more I'm A Celeb and has even recommended it to his famous friends.
The actor would love to be asked back for I'm A Celebrity (Picture: ITV/REX)
'If I were asked to do an all-star version I would do it at the drop of a hat because I absolutely loved it,' John said.
'I've spoken to a couple of my friends, not only in the States but here in the UK. I'm not saying who!'
In the meantime lucky John has been letting his hair down at the SENSATORI Resort in the Dominican Republic, to help people find that 'holiday feeling' this summer with TUI UK.
The Torchwood star will explain the 30 moments when it feels like your holiday has started, from feeling the sun on your skin to taking the first sip of a holiday cocktail.
And he has some sage advice when it comes to packing for the perfect trip.
John is helping people find that 'holiday feeling'
He explained: 'You don't need to travel with a lot. You can take one good suitcase.
'In one half put your evening clothes. You're never gonna wear high heeled shoes or fancy lace up shoes you're gonna wear sandals or slip ons. Put your toiletries in there too.
'On the other side leave a little room for some gifts you're gonna buy at the resort, your swimwear, there's no need for towels on all-inclusive. Limit yourself. Take not what you need, not what you want to take.'
TUI enlisted John Barrowman to bring the 'Holiday Feeling' to life, showing holidaymakers exactly what the holiday feeling is during a stay at the TUI SENSATORI Resort Punta Cana. To find out more head here.
MORE: Katie Price 'inspires boyfriend Kris Boyson to get new set of teeth'
MORE: Travis Scott parties in Miami with group of women before spending Mother's Day with Kylie Jenner
John BarrowmanThe X Factor
Vinnie Jones returns to work on Celebrity X Factor following the tragic death of his wife
Rylan Clark-Neal 'had paramedics called' after his iconic X Factor meltdown


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Surface Design Show 2014 has upheld its position as the leading show for innovative interior and exterior surfaces among industry professionals.
Now in its 11th year, the Show proved an even bigger draw for key interior design and architectural studios such as Zaha Hadid Architects, Jestico + Whiles, Foster + Partners, Studio Egret West, Sheppard Robson, Based Upon and HawkinsBrown who flocked to the only UK event to focus exclusively on surfaces.
Exhibitors were delighted by the large number of visitors to the show and the results they achieved.
2014 was the largest Surface Design Show to date with inspirational products and displays ranging from pioneering natural materials and ceramics to high quality printed concrete walls. Global Color Research provided interior designers, architects and specifiers with exclusive insights into Spring/Summer 2015 colour trends and Arup showcased actual fragments from their latest portfolio of innovative building facades.
Grestec Tiles - Cement Stone
Grestec Tiles, specialist supplier of ceramic, porcelain, glass and natural stone tiles will be launching the new and original Cement Stone range alongside a selection of other unique and innovative collections including Aarde Steen and the Le Shack Collection. The Cement Stone range (shown below) has been inspired from a variety of natural stones to create a collection of five graduating shades.
WILA Alphabet - Recessed spotlight
WILA - alphabet focus recessed spotlight: flexible and extremely luminous
The alphabet focus recessed spotlights accentuate objects or structures in the room and create an exciting overall impression. At the same time, they direct the gaze at the object, e.g. in stores or museums. For optimal results, pictures are illuminated homogeneously. The play with light and shadows emphasizes the three dimensionality of objects and brings them to life.
PanDOMO offers the fast track installation of cement based polished concrete floors and walls. The range is exceptionally versatile in terms of colour, style, use and all offer large seamless areas in bespoke finishes.
Ketley Brick - Staffordshire Blue Brick
Building on over 100 years of success with their Clay Paver range, Ketley Brick have combined tradition with modern technology to develop their new 18mm thick Clay Paving Tiles. Offering similar performance to a traditional quarry tile and a U3 slip resistance, the Paving Tiles come in a range of natural burnt clay colours created through delicate control of the kiln atmosphere. Ketley Paving Tiles are suitable for both indoor and outdoor applications, and will work equally well in contemporary spaces and for restoration projects. They offer a sustainable and cost effective choice for designers.
The show opened with a fun and informative debate entitled 'Traditionalism, Modernism and the Vernacular'. Architect and radio and television broadcaster Maxwell Hutchinson discussed and debated the role of materials in architecture and the vernacular in the built environment with a dynamic panel of speakers.
Cany Ash of Ash Sakula chaired the popular and lively PechaKucha evening which saw presentations from some of the most influential and innovative designers such as Adam Furman, Ron Arad; Pia Pelkonen, Ardesia Design; Mark Ridler, BDP Lighting and Marc Thomas, Millimetre.
On the final day of the Show the winners of the Surface Design Awards were revealed. Hosted by Annabelle Filer of SCIN and with a keynote address by Sarah Featherstone of Featherstone Young, the winning projects spanned the globe from the UK, Belgium, USA, UAE, China and Japan, with Squire and Partner's Mayfair House winning the 'best of the best' Supreme Award.
Finally, one of the highlight of the event was the launch of Light School, the Show's new focus on lighting, presented by Sharon Stammers and Martin Lupton of Light Collective. The 'classroom' was host to a number of leading members of the lighting design community presenting tutorials to a packed audience who left 'Inspired by Light'.
Sharon Stammers and Martin Lupton of Light Collective said "Light School was created as we believed the Surface Design Show was the best platform to share our lighting knowledge and inspire the architectural and interior design community. The fact that every talk had people spilling out the door of the school room means there is a need for it. The program was enthusiastically received and we hope to be back in 2015."
Show Director, Christopher Newton said "The show was a huge success. There was a real energy in the hall and the exhibitors were greatly encouraged by the number of serious buyers it attracted."

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


Services: roof replacement, roof repair, flat roof systems, sloped roof systems, commercial roofing, residential roofing, modified bitumen, tile roofing, shingle roofing, metal roofing Founded in : 1990 Hours of Operation: Monday to Friday : 7AM–5PM Saturday to Sunday : Closed Language: English, Spanish Payement: Credit card, check, insurance billing Florida Certified Roofing Contractor: License #: CCC1330376 Florida Certified Building Contractor: License #: CBC033123 About Us: Eddie Valle started Tornado Roofing in 1990 and along with a team of highly experienced seasoned professional installers, estimators and roof inspectors, Tornado Roofing has evolved into Tornado Roofing & Contracting, Inc. conveniently located in Margate, Florida. We have continued to grow, thanks to the confidence of our clients, other contractors, Property Managers and other business professionals that have entrusted our company. We are well respected by builders, City Building Officials and homeowners associations. We take great pride in our work and are focused on each client's satisfaction and experience with Tornado Roofing. We have only one opportunity to do the job right. And here's how: Our administrative staff is very efficient and will answer questions about roofing or building services with the correct answers. Our estimators and site managers have been in the business for more than 20 years and know exactly what to look for to provide cost effective solutions. Our installers are highly skilled in all roofing specifications and are respectful and courteous to our clients. We look forward to discussing your roofing or construction project and providing a solution that works for you.


Boasting unmatched performance, refinement, and style, our 2012 Jeep Grand Cherokee Overland RWD turns heads in Stone White over Tan interior! The soul of this machine is a proven 3.6 Liter V6 that unleashes a spirited 305hp. It's perfectly paired with a responsive 5 Speed Automatic and Quadra-Lift air suspension to provide you with 20mpg and a confident, smooth ride you'll enjoy each time you slide behind the wheel.
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Drive with confidence knowing your Jeep has earned top safety scores with innovative technologies that are designed to protect you and your family, Endowed with all the creature comforts you desire, this capable and versatile Jeep Grand Cherokee is practically calling your name! Print this page and call us Now... We Know You Will Enjoy Your Test Drive Towards Ownership! Great quality, easy financing and affordable prices aren't the only things that make Westcoast Auto Sales the first choice of many discerning auto buyers. Stop in and See California's Dealer of the Year!


Cannabissearch.com Buzz Rating: While it may take 5 or 10 minutes to reach full effect, White Castle provides a serious couch-lock high that is great for pain relief, nausea and insomnia. This strain also appears to have no ceiling, meaning the more one smokes, the higher one gets.
White Castle was produced with a White Widow female and an ICE male. The result is a relatively compact strain that has medium-size, fairly dense buds with a shocking amount of trichomes. These nugs put off pungent aromas of flowers and hash, with flavors of strawberries, hash and floral accents. When ingested through a vaporizer, however, the flavors may change to purely of strawberries, giving quite a treat to those who ingest these glorious buds.
White Castle should be vegetated indoors, no longer than five weeks, to avoid running into height restrictions. It's not recommended for outdoor cultivation, as it does not deal particularly well with temperatures that fluctuate greatly. When grown indoors, growers are advised to maintain consistent temps, within 8 degrees Fahrenheit. These ladies will flower for 10 or 11 weeks, before being ready for harvest. They have a high calyx-to-leaf ratio, making harvesting relatively simple. Both soil and hydro cultivation have yielded excellent results with White Castle.
White Castle 0 out of 5 based on 0 ratings. 0 user reviews.


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In 2017 Varden Safaris relocated and Ride Zimbabwe was born.
Still operating under the same principles and ideals of Varden Safaris, Ride Zimbabwe now operates in new riding areas which include Matobo National Park and Cawston Wildlife Estate in Matabeleland. These areas are easily accessible from the major tourism hubs of Victoria Falls, Hwange National Park and Bulawayo. If you love horses, adventure and the great outdoors there is truly no better way to discover Africa than on the back of one of our beautiful safari horses.
Ride Zimbabwe is owned and operated by James Varden, a well-known and respected Professional Zimbabwean Safari Guide and his wife Janine. Janine grew up in Australia where her love of animals and horses began. She worked for many years as a Jillaroo on a sheep and cattle farm and then at Werribee Open Range Zoo in Melbourne, Victoria as a Keeper before meeting James and moving to Zimbabwe to create their dream of providing guests with a truly incredible safari experience.
James and Janine both have strong backgrounds in conservation having spent more than 15 years' operating Horse Riding Safaris in the Mavuradonha Wilderness in the north of Zimbabwe, being involved in many conservation projects to help preserve wildlife and support local communities. Janine and James firmly believe and know through their experience that wildlife and their habitats will continue to suffer without the benefit of community involvement.
Some major ways communities can benefit from living in harmony with wildlife is through Tourism. Tourism provides employment, spinoff arts and crafts, conservation education in the local schools by Tourism Operators and exposure of local communities to many cultures through visits of international guests to name a view. However, our biggest conservation achievement to date has been working for many years with Local Government to grant Mavuradonha Wilderness full National Heritage Status and protection by National Monuments and Museums which has led to an application for World Heritage listing for the area with UNESCO.
Ride Zimbabwe under its Varden Safaris brand was proud to have been featured as one the most ecologically sustainable camps in Africa for the Mavuradonha Wilderness in the independent audit of camps for the book "Africa's Finest" (David Bristow & Colin Bell Published 2013 by Green Safari Pty Ltd)
In our new riding areas, Ride Zimbabwe will continue to strive and work to find new and innovative ways to make significant contributions to the conservation of both wildlife and their habitat as well as to local communities in Zimbabwe for the benefit of all to help preserve this truly remarkable part of Africa.


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Date of Report (Date of earliest event reported): February 7, 2018
ANGI Homeservices Inc.
(Exact name of registrant as specified in charter)
(State or other jurisdiction
of incorporation)
(Commission
File Number)
(IRS Employer
14023 Denver West Parkway, Building 64
Registrant's telephone number, including area code: (303) 963-7200
Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of the following provisions:
o Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425)
o Soliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12)
o Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d-2(b))
o Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13e-4(c))
Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is an emerging growth company as defined in Rule 405 of the Securities Act of 1933 (§230.405 of this chapter) or Rule 12b-2 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (§240.12b-2 of this chapter). Emerging growth company x
If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act. x
Item 2.02 Results of Operations and Financial Condition.
Item 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure.
On February 7, 2018, the Registrant announced that it had released its results for the quarter ended December 31, 2017. The full text of the related press release, which is posted on the "Investor Relations" section of the Registrant's website at http://ir.angihomeservices.com/quarterly-earnings and appears in Exhibit 99.1 hereto, is incorporated herein by reference.
Exhibit 99.1 is being furnished under both Item 2.02 "Results of Operations and Financial Condition" and Item 7.01 "Regulation FD Disclosure."
Item 9.01 Financial Statements and Exhibits.
Exhibit No.
Press Release of ANGI Homeservices Inc., dated February 7, 2018.
/s/GLENN H. SCHIFFMAN
Glenn H. Schiffman
Exhibit 99.1
ANGI HOMESERVICES REPORTS Q4 2017
GOLDEN, Colo. — February 7, 2018—ANGI Homeservices (NASDAQ: ANGI) financial results consist of HomeAdvisor financial results for all periods and Angie's List results following the completion of the combination on September 29, 2017. For periods prior to Q3 2017, ANGI Homeservices financial results are those of HomeAdvisor. A letter to IAC shareholders from IAC's CEO Joey Levin, which includes a discussion on ANGI Homeservices, was posted on the Investor Relations section of IAC's website at www.iac.com/Investors.
ANGI HOMESERVICES SUMMARY RESULTS
($ in millions except per share amounts)
Operating (loss) income
(33.9
(147.9
Net (loss) earnings
GAAP Diluted EPS
Adjusted Net Income
See reconciliations of GAAP to non-GAAP measures beginning on page 9.
· ANGI Homeservices revenue increased 80% to $223.2 million driven by 32% Marketplace growth, a full quarter contribution from Angie's List and 48% growth in Europe.
· Operating loss and Adjusted EBITDA reflect costs and deferred revenue write-offs in connection with the Angie's List transaction. Excluding the transaction-related items, operating income was $13.3 million and Adjusted EBITDA was $38.3 million, which represents a 17% Adjusted EBITDA margin.
· For the full year 2017, operating income and Adjusted EBITDA would have been $26.0 million and $90.9 million, respectively, excluding costs and deferred revenue write-offs in connection with the Angie's List transaction.
· For 2017, ANGI Homeservices had:
· On a pro forma basis, revenue of $960 million
· 18 million Marketplace service requests from homeowners
· 181,000 paying Marketplace service professionals and 45,000 Angie's List advertisers at December 31, 2017
· ANGI Homeservices expects $85 million of operating income and $270 million in Adjusted EBITDA in 2018, excluding costs and deferred revenue write-offs in connection with the Angie's List transaction.
Pro Forma (a)
($ in millions)
Marketplace (b)
Advertising & Other (c)
Total North America
Total ANGI Homeservices revenue
(a) Pro forma results reflect the inclusion of Angie's List revenue for all periods and excludes deferred revenue write-offs of $7.6 million in Q4 2017 in connection with the Angie's List transaction.
(b) Reflects the HomeAdvisor domestic marketplace service. It excludes other North America operating subsidiaries within the segment.
(c) Includes Angie's List revenue (revenue from service professionals under contract for advertising during the period and Angie's List non-advertising revenue) as well as revenue from mHelpDesk, HomeStars and Felix.
· Revenue increased 80% to $223.2 million driven by:
· A full quarter contribution from Angie's List following the completion of the combination of HomeAdvisor and Angie's List to create ANGI Homeservices on September 29, 2017, partially offset by deferred revenue write-offs of $7.6 million related to the Angie's List transaction
· 32% Marketplace growth driven by a 36% increase in service requests to 4.2 million and a 26% increase in paying service professionals to 181,000
· 48% growth in Europe driven by the acquisitions of controlling interests in MyHammer Holding AG in Germany on November 3, 2016 and MyBuilder Limited in the UK on March 24, 2017
Operating (loss) income and Adjusted EBITDA
· Operating loss was $33.9 million compared to operating income of $6.2 million in Q4 2016 reflecting:
· An increase of $26.7 million in stock-based compensation expense, including $25.1 million due primarily to the Angie's List transaction comprising:
· $15.4 million related to the modification of previously issued HomeAdvisor unvested equity awards, which were converted into ANGI Homeservices equity awards
· $9.7 million related to previously issued Angie's List equity awards and the acceleration of certain Angie's List equity awards resulting from the termination of employees in connection with the combination
· An increase of $15.5 million in amortization of intangibles driven primarily by the Angie's List transaction.
· Adjusted EBITDA growth of 36% to $16.2 million driven by higher revenue, partially offset by:
· $14.4 million of severance, retention, transaction and integration-related costs
· $7.6 million deferred revenue write-offs related to the Angie's List transaction
· Higher selling and marketing expense (including 62% growth in TV marketing)
Marketplace Service Requests (b)(d)
Marketplace Paying Service Professionals (b)(e)
Angie's List Advertising Service Professionals (f)
(d) Fully completed and submitted domestic customer service requests on HomeAdvisor.
(e) The number of HomeAdvisor domestic service professionals that had an active membership and/or paid for consumer matches in the last month of the period.
(f) Reflects the total number of Angie's List service professionals under contract for advertising at the end of the period.
In the fourth quarter of 2017, the Company recorded a tax provision of $22.0 million and $38.9 million for GAAP and Adjusted Net Income, respectively. The provision was primarily due to the reduction of $33.0 million and $35.3 million for GAAP and Adjusted Net Income, respectively, in the Company's net deferred tax assets because of the lower tax rate enacted by the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. There is no transition tax because the Company has generated net losses from its international operations on a cumulative basis.
As of December 31, 2017:
· ANGI Homeservices had 478.0 million Class A and Class B common shares outstanding.
· IAC's economic and voting interest in ANGI Homeservices were 86.9% and 98.5%, respectively.
· ANGI Homeservices held $221.5 million in cash and cash equivalents and owed $277.8 million of debt, including a current portion of $13.8 million and $2.8 million owed to IAC subsidiaries.
ANGI Homeservices will audiocast a conference call to answer questions regarding its fourth quarter 2017 results on Thursday, February 8, 2018, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. This call will include the disclosure of certain information, including forward-looking information, which may be material to an investor's understanding of ANGI Homeservices' business. The live audiocast will be open to the public at ir.angihomeservices.com or www.iac.com/Investors.
DILUTIVE SECURITIES
ANGI Homeservices has various dilutive securities. The table below details these securities as well as potential dilution at various stock prices (shares in millions; rounding differences may occur).
Dilution at:
Absolute Shares as of 2/2/18
RSUs and Other
IAC denominated equity awards
Total Dilution
% Dilution
Total Diluted Shares Outstanding
The dilutive securities calculation in the above table is different from GAAP dilution, which is calculated using the treasury stock method, and is based on the following assumptions:
SARs, subsidiary denominated equity awards and RSUs — These awards are settled on a net basis, with ANGI Homeservices making a cash payment on behalf of the holder equal to the amount of required tax withholdings; therefore the dilutive effect is presented as the net number of shares expected to be issued upon vesting or exercise, in each case assuming a withholding tax rate of 50%. In addition, the estimated income tax benefit from the tax deduction received upon the vesting or exercise of these awards is used to repurchase ANGI Homeservices shares.
Options — The cash generated from the exercise of ANGI Homeservices options (both vested and unvested awards), consisting of (a) the option exercise price and (b) the estimated income tax benefit from the tax deduction received upon the exercise of ANGI Homeservices options, is used to repurchase ANGI Homeservices shares.
IAC denominated equity awards — IAC denominated equity awards represent options and performance-based restricted stock units denominated in the shares of IAC that have been issued to employees of ANGI Homeservices. Upon the exercise or vesting of IAC equity awards, IAC will settle the awards with shares of IAC, and ANGI Homeservices will issue additional shares of ANGI Homeservices to IAC as reimbursement. The estimated income tax benefit from the tax deduction received upon the exercise or vesting of IAC denominated equity awards is used to repurchase ANGI Homeservices shares.
GAAP FINANCIAL STATEMENTS
ANGI HOMESERVICES CONSOLIDATED AND COMBINED STATEMENT OF OPERATIONS
($ in thousands except per share amounts)
Three Months Ended December 31,
Twelve Months Ended December 31,
Operating costs and expenses:
Cost of revenue (exclusive of depreciation shown separately below)
Selling and marketing expense
Product development expense
Total operating costs and expenses
Interest expense—third party
Interest expense—related party
Other (expense) income, net
(Loss) earnings before income taxes
Income tax (provision) benefit
Net loss attributable to noncontrolling interests
Net (loss) earnings attributable to ANGI Homeservices Inc. shareholders
Per share information attributable to ANGI Homeservices Inc. shareholders:
Basic (loss) earnings per share
Diluted (loss) earnings per share
Stock-based compensation expense by function:
Cost of revenue
ANGI HOMESERVICES CONSOLIDATED AND COMBINED BALANCE SHEET
($ in thousands)
Intangible assets, net
Deferred income taxes
Other non-current assets
LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDERS' EQUITY
Current portion of long-term debt—related party
Long-term debt, net
Long-term debt—related party, net
Redeemable noncontrolling interests
Commitments and contingencies
Class A Common Stock
Class B Common Stock
Class C Common Stock
Invested Capital
Total ANGI Homeservices Inc. shareholders' equity and invested capital, respectively
Noncontrolling interests
Total shareholders' equity
TOTAL LIABILITIES AND SHAREHOLDERS' EQUITY
ANGI HOMESERVICES CONSOLIDATED AND COMBINED STATEMENT OF CASH FLOWS
Cash flows from operating activities:
Adjustments to reconcile net (loss) earnings to net cash provided by operating activities:
Bad debt expense
Other adjustments, net
Changes in assets and liabilities, net of effects of acquisitions:
Accounts payable and other current liabilities
Cash flows from investing activities:
Acquisitions, net of cash acquired
Cash flows from financing activities:
Borrowing under term loan
Debt issuance costs
Proceeds from issuance of related party debt
Principal payments on related party debt
Proceeds from the exercise of stock options
Withholding taxes paid on behalf of employees on net settled stock-based awards
Funds returned from (held in) escrow for MyHammer tender offer
Transfers from (to) IAC/InterActiveCorp
Purchase of noncontrolling interests
Other, net
Total cash provided
Net increase in cash and cash equivalents
Cash and cash equivalents at beginning of period
Cash and cash equivalents at end of period
RECONCILIATIONS OF GAAP TO NON-GAAP MEASURES
ANGI HOMESERVICES RECONCILIATION OF OPERATING CASH FLOW TO FREE CASH FLOW
($ in millions; rounding differences may occur)
For the twelve months ended December 31, 2017, Free Cash Flow decreased $16.2 million due lower Adjusted EBITDA and higher capital expenditures.
ANGI HOMESERVICES RECONCILIATION OF GAAP EPS TO ADJUSTED EPS
Impact of income taxes and noncontrolling interests
GAAP Basic weighted average shares outstanding
SARs, Options, subsidiary denominated equity awards and RSUs, treasury method
GAAP Diluted weighted average shares outstanding
SARs, Options, subsidiary denominated equity awards and RSUs, treasury method not included in diluted shares above
Impact of RSUs and other
Adjusted EPS weighted average shares outstanding
For GAAP diluted EPS purposes, RSUs and performance-based RSUs to the extent the applicable performance condition(s) have been met, are included on a treasury method basis. For Adjusted EPS purposes, the impact of RSUs on shares outstanding is based on the weighted average number of RSUs outstanding, including performance-based RSUs outstanding that the Company believes are probable of vesting.
ANGI HOMESERVICES RECONCILIATION OF SEGMENT GAAP MEASURE TO NON-GAAP MEASURE
For the three months ended December 31, 2017
Stock-based
Amortization of
(loss)
For the twelve months ended December 31, 2017
ANGI HOMESERVICES RECONCILIATION OF GAAP MEASURE TO NON-GAAP MEASURE
2018 operating income to Adjusted EBITDA reconciliation
Stock-based compensation expense (a)
Adjusted EBITDA (b)
(a) Includes ~$70 million of charges in connection with the Angie's List transaction.
(b) Excludes costs and deferred revenue write-offs in connection with the Angie's List transaction.
Adjusted EBITDA margin reconciliation
Angie's List Transaction-Related Items
Excluding Transaction
As Reported
Compensation Expense
Operating (loss) income margin
Adjusted EBITDA margin
ANGI HOMESERVICES PRINCIPLES OF FINANCIAL REPORTING
ANGI Homeservices reports Adjusted EBITDA, Adjusted Net Income, Adjusted EBITDA Margin, Adjusted EPS and Free Cash Flow, all of which are supplemental measures to GAAP. These measures are among the primary metrics by which we evaluate the performance of our businesses, on which our internal budgets are based and by which management is compensated. We believe that investors should have access to, and we are obligated to provide, the same set of tools that we use in analyzing our results. These non-GAAP measures should be considered in addition to results prepared in accordance with GAAP, but should not be considered a substitute for or superior to GAAP results. ANGI Homeservices endeavors to compensate for the limitations of the non-GAAP measures presented by providing the comparable GAAP measures with equal or greater prominence and descriptions of the reconciling items, including quantifying such items, to derive the non-GAAP measures. We encourage investors to examine the reconciling adjustments between the GAAP and non-GAAP measures, which are included in this release. Interim results are not necessarily indicative of the results that may be expected for a full year.
Definitions of Non-GAAP Measures
Adjusted Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization (Adjusted EBITDA) is defined as operating income excluding: (1) stock-based compensation expense; (2) depreciation; and (3) acquisition-related items consisting of amortization of intangible assets and impairments of goodwill and intangible assets, if applicable. We believe Adjusted EBITDA is a useful measure for analysts and investors as this measure allows a more meaningful comparison between our performance and that of our competitors. Moreover, our management uses this measure internally to evaluate the performance of our business as a whole and our individual business segments. The above items are excluded from our Adjusted EBITDA measure because these items are non-cash in nature, and we believe that by excluding these items, Adjusted EBITDA corresponds more closely to the cash operating income generated from our business, from which capital investments are made and debt is serviced.
Adjusted EBITDA Margin is defined as Adjusted EBITDA divided by revenues. We believe Adjusted EBITDA margin is useful for analysts and investors as this measure allows a more meaningful comparison between our performance and that of our competitors. Adjusted EBITDA margin corresponds more closely to the cash operating income margin generated from our business, from which capital investments are made and debt is serviced. Adjusted EBITDA margin has certain limitations in that it does not take into account the impact to our consolidated statement of operations of certain expenses.
Adjusted Net Income generally captures all items on the statement of operations that have been, or ultimately will be, settled in cash and is defined as net earnings attributable to ANGI Homeservices shareholders excluding, net of tax effects and noncontrolling interests, if applicable: (1) stock-based compensation expense and (2) acquisition-related items consisting of amortization of intangibles and impairments of goodwill and intangible assets. We believe Adjusted Net Income is useful to investors because it represents ANGI Homeservices' consolidated results taking into account depreciation, which management believes is an ongoing cost of doing business, as well as other charges that are not allocated to the operating businesses such as interest expense, income taxes and noncontrolling interests, but excluding the effects of any other non-cash expenses.
Adjusted EPS is defined as Adjusted Net Income divided by fully diluted weighted average shares outstanding for Adjusted EPS purposes. We include dilution from options and stock appreciation rights ("SARs") in accordance with the treasury stock method and include all restricted stock units ("RSUs") in shares outstanding for Adjusted EPS, with performance-based RSUs included based on the number of shares that the Company believes are probable of vesting. This differs from the GAAP method for including RSUs, which are treated on a treasury method, and performance-based RSUs, which are included for GAAP purposes only to the extent the applicable performance condition(s) have been met (assuming the end of the reporting period is the end of the contingency period), which increases shares outstanding for Adjusted EPS purposes. We believe Adjusted EPS is useful to investors because it represents, on a per share basis, ANGI Homeservices' consolidated results, taking into account depreciation, which we believe is an ongoing cost of doing business, as well as other charges, which are not allocated to the operating businesses such as interest expense, income taxes and noncontrolling interests, but excluding the effects of any other non-cash expenses, and is computed in a manner that is generally consistent with management's view of dilution. Adjusted Net Income and Adjusted EPS have the same limitations as Adjusted EBITDA. Therefore, we think it is important to evaluate these measures along with our consolidated statement of operations.
Free Cash Flow is defined as net cash provided by operating activities, less capital expenditures. We believe Free Cash Flow is useful to investors because it represents the cash that our operating businesses generate, before taking into account non-operational cash movements. Free Cash Flow has certain limitations in that it does not represent the total increase or decrease in the cash balance for the period, nor does it represent the residual cash flow for discretionary expenditures. For example, it does not take into mandatory debt service requirements. Therefore, we think it is important to evaluate Free Cash Flow along with our consolidated statement of cash flows.
We look at Free Cash Flow as a measure of the strength and performance of our businesses, not for valuation purposes. In our view, applying "multiples" to Free Cash Flow is inappropriate because it is subject to timing, seasonality and one-time events. We manage our business for cash and we think it is of utmost importance to maximize cash — but our primary valuation metrics are Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted EPS.
Non-Cash Expenses That Are Excluded From Our Non-GAAP Measures
Stock-based compensation expense consists principally of expense associated with the grants, including unvested grants assumed in acquisitions (including the Combination), of stock options, SARs, RSUs and performance-based RSUs. These expenses are not paid in cash, and we include the related shares in our fully diluted shares outstanding using the treasury stock method; however, performance-based RSUs are included only to the extent the applicable performance condition(s) have been met (assuming the end of the reporting period is the end of the contingency period). We view the true cost of stock options, SARs, RSUs and performance-based RSUs as the dilution to our share base, and such awards are included in our shares outstanding for Adjusted EPS purposes as described above under the definition of Adjusted EPS. Upon the exercise of stock options, the awards are gross settled or net settled at the election of the award holder, and the exercise of SARs and vesting of RSUs and performance-based RSUs, the awards are settled on a net basis, with the Company remitting the required tax-withholding amount from its current funds.
Depreciation is a non-cash expense relating to our property and equipment and is computed using the straight-line method to allocate the cost of depreciable assets to operations over their estimated useful lives, or, in the case of leasehold improvements, the lease term, if shorter.
Amortization of intangible assets and impairments of goodwill and intangible assets are non-cash expenses related primarily to acquisitions (including the Combination). At the time of an acquisition, the identifiable definite-lived intangible assets of the acquired company, such as contractor and service professional relationships, technology, memberships, customer lists and user base, and trade names, are valued and amortized over their estimated lives. Value is also assigned to acquired indefinite-lived intangible assets, which comprise trade names and trademarks, and goodwill that are not subject to amortization. An impairment is recorded when the carrying value of an intangible asset or goodwill exceeds its fair value. We believe that intangible assets represent costs incurred by the acquired company to build value prior to acquisition and the related amortization and impairment charges of intangible assets or goodwill, if applicable, are not ongoing costs of doing business.
This press release and our conference call, which will be held at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time on February 8, 2018, may contain "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. The use of words such as "anticipates," "estimates," "expects," "plans" and "believes," among others, generally identify forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements include, among others, statements relating to: our future business, financial condition, results of operations and financial performance, our business strategy, trends in the home services industry, expected synergies and other benefits to be realized by ANGI Homeservices following the combination of HomeAdvisor and Angie's List ("the Transaction") and other similar matters. These forward-looking statements are based on management's current expectations and assumptions about future events, which are inherently subject to uncertainties, risks and changes in circumstances that are difficult to predict. Actual results could differ materially from those contained in these forward-looking statements for a variety of reasons, including, among others: the possibility that the anticipated cost savings and other benefits of the Transaction are not realized when expected or at all (including as a result of the impact of, or problems arising from, the integration of HomeAdvisor and Angie's List or as a result of changes in the economy and competitive factors in the areas in which they do business), diversion of management's attention from ongoing business operations and opportunities as a result of the Transaction, the migration of the home services market online, our ability to establish and maintain relationships with quality service professionals, our ability to maintain and enhance our various brands, our ability to attract and convert visitors to our various websites into users and customers, our ability to offer new or alternative products and services that resonate with consumers, our ability to protect our systems from cyberattacks and to protect personal and confidential information, the ability to expand successfully into international markets, the ability to retain key personnel, the potential liability for a failure to meet regulatory requirements and regulatory changes. Certain of these and other risks and uncertainties are discussed in ANGI Homeservices' filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Other unknown or unpredictable factors that could also adversely affect ANGI Homeservices business, financial condition and results of operations may arise from time to time. In light of these risks and uncertainties, these forward-looking statements may not prove to be accurate. Accordingly, you should not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which only reflect the views of ANGI Homeservices' management as of the date of this press release. ANGI Homeservices does not undertake to update these forward-looking statements.
About ANGI Homeservices Inc.
Through its collection of brands, ANGI Homeservices Inc. (NASDAQ: ANGI) is creating the world's largest digital marketplace for home services, connecting millions of homeowners across the globe with home service professionals. ANGI Homeservices operates brands in eight countries, including HomeAdvisor®, Angie's List®, HomeStars (Canada), Travaux.com (France), MyHammer (Germany and Austria), MyBuilder (UK), Werkspot (Netherlands) and Instapro (Italy). The company is headquartered in Golden, Colorado. For more information visit www.angihomeservices.com.
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The Monumental Dishonesty and Appalling Bad Faith of Chief Justice Roberts's Decision
Published June 26, 2018	Hugo Black , John Roberts , Sonia Sotomayor , Trump v. Hawaii 13 Comments
Tags: Noah Feldman
Noah Feldman brilliantly exposes the moral rot underlying the horrific Supreme Court decision handed down today approving the Muslim ban, truly, as Feldman describes it, a decision that will live in infamy in the company of Dred Scott and Korematsu. Here are the key passages from Feldman's masterful unmasking of the faulty reasoning of the Roberts opinion
When Chief Justice Roberts comes to the topic of bias, he recounts Trump's anti-Muslim statements and the history of the travel ban (this is the administration's third version). Then he balks. "The issue before us is not whether to denounce the statements," Roberts writes. Rather, Roberts insists, the court's focus must be on "the significance of those statements in reviewing a presidential directive, neutral on its face, addressing the matter within the core of executive responsibility."
That is lawyer-speak for saying that, despite its obviousness, the court would ignore Trump's anti-Muslim bias. Roberts is trying to argue that, when a president is acting within his executive authority, the court should defer to what the president says his intention is, no matter the underlying reality.
That's more or less what the Supreme Court did in the Korematsu case. There, Justice Hugo Black, a Franklin D. Roosevelt loyalist, denied that the orders requiring the internment of Japanese-Americans were based on racial prejudice. The dissenters, especially Justice Frank Murphy, pointed out that this was preposterous.
Justice Sonia Sotomayor, the court's most liberal member, played the truth-telling role today. Her dissent, joined by Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, states bluntly that a reasonable observer looking at the record would conclude that the ban was "motivated by anti-Muslim animus."
She properly invokes the Korematsu case — in which, she points out, the government also claimed a national security rationale when it was really relying on stereotypes. And she concludes that "our Constitution demands, and our country deserves, a Judiciary willing to hold the coordinate branches to account when they defy our most sacred legal commitments."
Roberts tried to dodge the Korematsu comparison by focusing on the narrow text of the order, which, according to Roberts, on its own terms – absent the statements made by the author of the ban himself — is not facially discriminatory. Feldman skewers that attempt.
Roberts certainly knows the consequences of this decision. He tries to deflect the Korematsu comparison by saying that the order as written could have been enacted by any other president — a point that is irrelevant to the reality of the ban. Roberts also takes the opportunity to announce that Korematsu "was gravely wrong the day it was decided [and] has been overruled in the court of history."
In another context, we might well be celebrating the fact that the Supreme Court had finally and expressly repudiated Korematsu, which it had never fully done before. Instead, Roberts's declaration reads like a desperate attempt to change the subject. The truth is that this decision and Korematsu are a pair: Prominent instances where the Supreme Court abdicated its claim to moral leadership.
Following up Feldman, I just want to make it absolutely clear how closely, despite Roberts's bad faith protestations to the contrary, the reasoning of his opinion follows the reasoning of the Korematsu court (opinion by Justice Black).
From the opinion of Chief Justice Roberts, attempting to counter the charge by Justice Sotomayor in her dissent that the majority was repeating the error of Korematsu.
Finally, the dissent invokes Korematsu v. United States, 323 U. S. 214 (1944). Whatever rhetorical advantage the dissent may see in doing so, Korematsu has nothing to do with this case. The forcible relocation of U. S. citizens to concentration camps, solely and explicitly on the basis of race, is objectively unlawful and outside the scope of Presidential authority. But it is wholly inapt to liken that morally repugnant order to a facially neutral policy denying certain foreign nationals the privilege of admission. See post, at 26–28. The entry suspension is an act that is well within executive authority and could have been taken by any other President—the only question is evaluating the actions of this particular President in promulgating an otherwise valid Proclamation.
This statement by the Chief Justice is monumentally false and misleading and utterly betrays either consciousness of wrongdoing or a culpable ignorance of the case he is presuming to distinguish from the one that he is deciding. Here is the concluding paragraph of Justice Black's opinion in Korematsu.
It is said that we are dealing here with the case of imprisonment of a citizen in a concentration camp solely because of his ancestry, without evidence or inquiry concerning his loyalty and good disposition towards the United States. Our task would be simple, our duty clear, were this a case involving the imprisonment of a loyal citizen in a concentration camp because of racial prejudice.
Justice Black is explicitly denying that the Japanese American citizens being imprisoned were imprisoned because of racial prejudice.
Regardless of the true nature of the assembly and relocation centers — and we deem it unjustifiable to call them concentration camps, with all the ugly connotations that term implies — we are dealing specifically with nothing but an exclusion order.
And Justice Black denies that the Japanese Americans were sent to concentration camps.
To cast this case into outlines of racial prejudice, without reference to the real military dangers which were presented, merely confuses the issue.
Contrary to the assertion of Chief Justice Roberts, the Korematsu court did not "solely and explicitly" relocate U.S. citizens to concentration camps solely on the basis of race. Justice Black explicitly rejected that contention. So his attempt to distinguish his opinion from Justice Black's majority opinion fails. Indeed Mr. Justice Black bases his decision on statutory authority given to the President by Congress, his inherent powers as Commander-in-Chief, and his assessment of the military danger of an invasion of the West Coast by the Japanese.
Korematsu was not excluded from the Military Area because of hostility to him or his race. He was excluded because we are at war with the Japanese Empire, because the properly constituted military authorities feared an invasion of our West Coast and felt constrained to take proper security measures, because they decided that the military urgency of the situation demanded that all citizens of Japanese ancestry be segregated from the West Coast temporarily, and, finally, because Congress, reposing its confidence in this time of war in our military leaders — as inevitably it must — determined that they should have the power to do just this. There was evidence of disloyalty on the part of some, the military authorities considered that the need for action was great, and time was short. We cannot — by availing ourselves of the calm perspective of hindsight — now say that, at that time, these actions were unjustified.
In almost every particular, Justice Black's decision employed the exact same reasoning that the Chief Justice now employs to uphold the travel ban. Justice Black argued that the relocation could have been motivated by reasons of national security, just as Chief Justice now argues that the travel ban was motivated by reasons of national security. Justice Black argued that the military must be trusted to make decisions about which citizens might be disloyal and could pose a national security threat in time of war just as Chief Justice Roberts now argues that the President must be allowed to make national security decisions about who may enter the United States from abroad. Neither Justice Black nor Chief Justice Roberts is prepared to say that singling out a group based on race or religion is unjustified.
The only distinction between the cases is that Korematsu concerned the rights of American citizens not to be imprisoned without due process, and the travel ban primarily affects the rights of non-resident aliens. Clearly an important distinction, but the rights of American citizens and resident aliens are also implicated. Their rights to be free from religious discrimination are also at issue, and those rights may not be lightly disregarded.
Chief Justice Roberts concludes by attempting to distract attention from the glaring similarities between his own decision and Justice Black's in Korematsu.
The dissent's reference to Korematsu, however, affords this Court the opportunity to make express what is already obvious: Korematsu was gravely wrong the day it was decided, has been overruled in the court of history, and—to be clear—"has no place in law under the Constitution." (Jackson, J., dissenting).
But in doing so, Chief Justice Roberts only provides further evidence of his own consciousness of wrongdoing and his stunning display of bad faith.
Who's Afraid of a Flattening Yield Curve?
Published June 22, 2018	Uncategorized 3 Comments
Last week the Fed again raised its benchmark Federal Funds rate target, now at 2%, up from the 0.25% rate that had been maintained steadily from late 2008 until late 2015, when the Fed, after a few false starts, finally worked up the courage — or caved to the pressure of the banks and the financial community — to start raising rates. The Fed also signaled its intention last week to continue raising rates – presumably at 0.25% increments – at least twice more this calendar year.
Some commentators have worried that rising short-term interest rates are outpacing increases at the longer end, so that the normally positively-sloped yield curve is flattening. They point out that historically flat or inverted yield curves have often presaged an economic downturn or recession within a year.
What accounts for the normally positive slope of the yield curve? It's usually attributed to the increased risk associated with a lengthening of the duration of a financial instrument, even if default risk is zero. The longer the duration of a financial instrument, the more sensitive the (resale) value of the instrument to changes in the rate of interest. Because risk falls as the duration of the of the instrument is shortened, risk-averse asset-holders are willing to accept a lower return on short-dated claims than on riskier long-dated claims.
If the Fed continues on its current course, it's likely that the yield curve will flatten or become inverted – sloping downward instead of upward – a phenomenon that has frequently presaged recessions within about a year. So the question I want to think through in this post is whether there is anything inherently recessionary about a flat or inverted yield curve, or is the correlation between recessions and inverted yield curves merely coincidental?
The beginning of wisdom in this discussion is the advice of Scott Sumner: never reason from a price change. A change in the slope of the yield curve reflects a change in price relationships. Any given change in price relationships can reflect a variety of possible causes, and the ultimate effects, e.g., an inverted yield curve, of those various underlying causes, need not be the same. So, we can't take it for granted that all yield-curve inversions are created equal; just because yield-curve inversions have sometimes, or usually, or always, preceded recessions doesn't mean that recessions must necessarily follow once the yield curve becomes inverted.
Let's try to sort out some of the possible causes of an inverted yield curve, and see whether those causes are likely to result in a recession if the yield curve remains flat or inverted for a substantial period of time. But it's also important to realize that the shape of the yield curve reflects a myriad of possible causes in a complex economic system. The yield curve summarizes expectations about the future that are deeply intertwined in the intertemporal structure of an economic system. Interest rates aren't simply prices determined in specific markets for debt instruments of various durations; interest rates reflect the opportunities to exchange current goods for future goods or to transform current output into future output. Interest rates are actually distillations of relationships between current prices and expected future prices that govern the prices and implied yields at which debt instruments are bought and sold. If the interest rates on debt instruments are out of line with the intricate web of intertemporal price relationships that exist in any complex economy, those discrepancies imply profitable opportunities for exchange and production that tend to eliminate those discrepancies. Interest rates are not set in a vacuum, they are a reflection of innumerable asset valuations and investment opportunities. So there are potentially innumerable possible causes that could lead to the flattening or inversion of the yield curve.
For purposes of this discussion, however, I will focus on just two factors that, in an ultra-simplified partial-equilibrium setting, seem most likely to cause a normally upward-sloping yield curve to become relatively flat or even inverted. These two factors affecting the slope of the yield curve are the demand for liquidity and the supply of liquidity.
An increase in the demand for liquidity manifests itself in reduced current spending to conserve liquidity and by an increase in the demands of the public on the banking system for credit. But even as reduced spending improves the liquidity position of those trying to conserve liquidity, it correspondingly worsens the liquidity position of those whose revenues are reduced, the reduced spending of some necessarily reducing the revenues of others. So, ultimately, an increase in the demand for liquidity can be met only by (a) the banking system, which is uniquely positioned to create liquidity by accepting the illiquid IOUs of the private sector in exchange for the highly liquid IOUs (cash or deposits) that the banking system can create, or (b) by the discretionary action of a monetary authority that can issue additional units of fiat currency.
Let's consider first what would happen in case of an increased demand for liquidity by the public. Such an increased demand could have two possible causes. (There might be others, of course, but these two seem fairly commonplace.)
First, the price expectations on which one or more significant sectors of the economy have made investments have turned out to overly optimistic (or alternatively made investments on overly optimistic expectations of low input prices). Given the commitments made on the basis of optimistic expectations, it then turns out that realized sales or revenues fall short of what was required by those firms to service their debt obligations. Thus, to service their debt obligations, firms may seek short-term loans to cover the shortfall in earnings relative to expectations. Potential lenders, including the banking system, who may already be holding the debt of such firms, must then decide whether to continue extending credit to these firms in hopes that prices will rebound back to what they had been expected to be (or that borrowers will be able to cut costs sufficiently to survive if prices don't recover), or to cut their losses by ceasing to lend further.
The short-run demand for credit will tend to raise short-term rates relative to long-term rates, causing the yield curve to flatten. And the more serious the short-term need for liquidity, the flatter or more inverted the yield curve becomes. In such a period of financial stress, the potential for significant failures of firms that can't service their financial obligations is an indication that an economic downturn or a recession is likely, so that the extent to which the yield curve flattens or becomes inverted is a measure of the likelihood that a downturn is in the offing.
Aside from sectoral problems affecting particular industries or groups of industries, the demand for liquidity might increase owing to a generalized increase in uncertainty that causes entrepreneurs to hold back from making investments (dampens animal spirits). This is often a response during and immediately following a recession, when the current state of economic activity and uncertainty about its future state discourages entrepreneurs from making investments whose profitability depends on the magnitude and scope of the future recovery. In that case, an increasing demand for liquidity causes firms to hoard their profits as cash rather than undertake new investments, because expected demand is not sufficient to justify commitments that would be remunerative only if future demand exceeds some threshold. Such a flattening of the yield curve can be mitigated if the monetary authority makes liquidity cheaply available by cutting short-term rates to very low levels or even to zero, as the Fed did when it adopted its quantitative easing policies after the 2008-09 downturn, thereby supporting a recovery, a modest one to be sure, but still a stronger recovery than occurred in Europe after the European Central Bank prematurely raised interest short-term rates.
Such an episode occurred in 2002-03, after the 9-11 attack on the US. The American economy had entered a recession in early 2001, partly as a result of the bursting of the dotcom bubble of the late 1990s. The recession was short and mild, and the large tax cut enacted by Congress at the behest of the Bush administration in June 2001 was expected to provide significant economic stimulus to promote recovery. However, it soon became clear that, besides the limited US attack on Afghanistan to unseat the Taliban regime and to kill or capture the Al Qaeda leadership in Afghanistan, the Bush Administration was planning for a much more ambitious military operation to effect regime change in Iraq and perhaps even in other neighboring countries in hopes of radically transforming the political landscape of the Middle East. The grandiose ambitions of the Bush administration and the likelihood that a major war of unknown scope and duration with unpredictable consequences might well begin sometime in early 2003 created a general feeling of apprehension and uncertainty that discouraged businesses from making significant new commitments until the war plans of the Administration were clarified and executed and their consequences assessed.
Gauging the unusual increase in the demand for liquidity in 2002 and 2003, the Fed reduced short-term rates to accommodate increasing demands for liquidity, even as the economy entered into a weak expansion and recovery. Given the unusual increase in the demand for liquidity, the accommodative stance of the Fed and the reduction in the Fed Funds target to an unusually low level of 1% had no inflationary effect, but merely cushioned the economy against a relapse into recession. The weakness of the recovery is reflected in the modest rate of increase in nominal spending, averaging about 3.9%, and not exceeding 5.1% in any of the seven quarters from 2001-IV when the recession ended until 2003-II when the Saddam Hussein regime was toppled.
Quarter % change in NGDP
2001-IV 2.34%
2002-I 5.07%
2002-II 3.76%
2002-III 3.80%
The apparent success of the American invasion in the second quarter of 2003 was matched by a quickening expansion from 2003-III through 2006-I, nominal GDP increasing at a 6.8% annual rate over those 11 quarters. As the economy recovered, and spending began increasing rapidly, the Fed gradually raised its Fed Funds target by 25 basis points about every six weeks starting at the end of June 2004, so that in early 2006, the Fed Funds target rate reached 4.25%, peaking at 5.25% in July 2006, where it remained till September 2007. By February 2006, the yield on 3-month Treasury bills reached the yield on 10-year Treasuries, so that the yield curve had become essentially flat, remaining so until October 2008, soon after the start of the financial crisis. Indeed, for most of 2006 and 2007, the Fed Funds target was above the yield on three-month Treasury bills, implying a slight inversion at the short-end of the yield curve, suggesting that the Fed was exacting a slight liquidity surcharge on overnight reserves and that there was a market expectation that the Fed Funds target would be reduced from its 5.25% peak.
The Fed was probably tardy in increasing its Fed Funds target till June 2004, nominal spending having increased in 2003-III at an annual rate above 9%, and increasing in the next three quarters at an average annual rate of about 6.5%. In 2005 while the Fed was in auto-pilot mode, automatically raising its Fed Funds target 25 basis points every six weeks, nominal spending continued to increase at a roughly 6% annual rate, increases becoming slightly more erratic, fluctuating between 5.1% and 8.3%. But by the second quarter of 2006 when the Fed Funds target rose to 5%, the rate of increase in spending slowed to an average of just over 4% and just under 5% in the first three quarters of 2007.
While the rate of increase in spending slowed to less than 5% in the second quarter of 2006, as the yield curve flattened, and the Fed Funds target peaked at 5.25%, housing prices also peaked, and the concerns about financial stability started to be voiced. The chart below shows the yields on 10-year constant maturity Treasuries and the yield on 3-month Treasury bills, the two key market rates at opposite ends of the yield curve.
The yields on the two instruments became nearly equal in early 2006, and, with slight variations, remained so till the onset of the financial crisis in September 2008. In retrospect, at least, the continued increases in the Fed Funds rate target seem too have been extremely ill-advised, perhaps triggering the downturn that started at the end of 2007, and leading nine months later to the financial crisis of 2008.
The Fed having put itself on autopilot, the yield curve became flat or even slightly inverted in early 2006, implying that a substantial liquidity premium had to be absorbed in order to keep cash on hand to meet debt obligations. By the second quarter of 2006, insufficient liquidity caused the growth in total spending to slow, just when housing prices were peaking, a development that intensified the stresses on the financial system, further increasing the demand for liquidity. Despite the high liquidity premium and flat yield curve, total spending continued to increase modestly through 2006 and most of 2007. But after stock prices dropped in August 2007 and home prices continued to slide, growth in total spending slowed further at the end of 2007, and the downturn began.
Responding to signs of economic weakness and falling long-term rates, the Fed did lower its Fed Funds target late in 2007, cutting the Fed Funds target several more times in early 2008. In May 2008, the Fed reduced the target to 2%, but the yield curve remained flat, because the Fed, consistently underestimating the severity of the downturn, kept signaling its concern with inflation, thereby suggesting that an increase in the target might be in the offing. So, even as it reduced its Fed Funds target, the Fed kept the yield curve nearly flat until, and even after, the start of the financial crisis in September 2008, thereby maintaining an excessive liquidity premium while the demand for liquidity was intensifying as total spending contracted rapidly in the third quarter of 2008.
To summarize this discussion of the liquidity premium and the yield curve during the 2001-08 period, the Fed appropriately steepened the yield curve right after the 2001 recession and the 9/11 attacks, but was slow to normalize the slope of the yield curve after the US invasion of Iraq in the second quarter of 2003. When it did begin to normalize the yield curve in a series of automatic 25 basis point increases in its Fed Fund target rate, the Fed was again slow to reassess the effects of the policy as yield curve flattened in 2006. Thus by 2006, the Fed had effectively implemented a tight monetary policy in the face of rising demands for liquidity just as the bursting of the housing bubble in mid-2006 began to subject the financial system to steadily increasing stress. The implications of a flat or slightly inverted yield curve were ignored or dismissed by the Fed for at least two years until after the financial panic and crisis in September 2008.
At the beginning of the 2001-08 period, the Fed seemed to be aware that an unusual demand for liquidity justified a policy response to increase the supply of liquidity by reducing the Fed Funds target and steepening the yield curve. But, at the end of the period, the Fed was unwilling to respond to increasing demands for liquidity and instead allowed a flat yield curve to remain in place even when the increasing demand for liquidity was causing a slowdown in aggregate spending growth. One possible reason for the asymmetric response of the Fed to increasing liquidity demands in 2002 and 2006 is that the Fed was sensitive to criticism that, by holding short-term rates too low for too long, it had promoted and prolonged the housing bubble. Even if the criticism contained some element of truth, the Fed's refusal to respond to increasing demands for liquidity in 2006 was tragically misguided.
The current Fed's tentative plan to keep increasing the Fed Funds target seems less unreflective as the nearly mindless schedule followed by the Fed from mid-2004 to mid-2006. However, the Fed is playing a weaker hand now than it did in 2004. Nominal GDP has been increasing at a very lackluster annual rate of about 4-4.5% for the past two years. Certainly, further increases in the Fed Funds target would not be warranted if the rate of growth in nominal GDP is any less than 4% or if the yield curve should flatten for some other reason like a decline in interest rates at the longer end of the yield curve. Caution, possible inversion ahead.
Keynes and the Fisher Equation
Published June 5, 2018	C. J. Bliss , Fisher effect , Jack Hirshleifer , Keynes 8 Comments
The history of economics society is holding its annual meeting in Chicago from Friday June 15 to Sunday June 17. Bringing together material from a number of posts over the past five years or so about Keynes and the Fisher equation and Fisher effect, I will be presenting a new paper called "Keynes and the Fisher Equation." Here is the abstract of my paper.
One of the most puzzling passages in the General Theory is the attack (GT p. 142) on Fisher's distinction between the money rate of interest and the real rate of interest "where the latter is equal to the former after correction for changes in the value of money." Keynes's attack on the real/nominal distinction is puzzling on its own terms, inasmuch as the distinction is a straightforward and widely accepted distinction that was hardly unique to Fisher, and was advanced as a fairly obvious proposition by many earlier economists including Marshall. What makes Keynes's criticism even more problematic is that Keynes's own celebrated theorem in the Tract on Monetary Reform about covered interest arbitrage is merely an application of Fisher's reasoning in Appreciation and Interest. Moreover, Keynes endorsed Fisher's distinction in the Treatise on Money. But even more puzzling is that Keynes's analysis in Chapter 17 demonstrates that in equilibrium the return on alternative assets must reflect their differences in their expected rates of appreciation. Thus Keynes, himself, in the General Theory endorsed the essential reasoning underlying the distinction between real and the money rates of interest. The solution to the puzzle lies in understanding the distinction between the relationships between the real and nominal rates of interest at a moment in time and the effects of a change in expected rates of appreciation that displaces an existing equilibrium and leads to a new equilibrium. Keynes's criticism of the Fisher effect must be understood in the context of his criticism of the idea of a unique natural rate of interest implicitly identifying the Fisherian real rate with a unique natural rate.
And here is the concluding section of my paper.
Keynes's criticisms of the Fisher effect, especially the facile assumption that changes in inflation expectations are reflected mostly, if not entirely, in nominal interest rates – an assumption for which neither Fisher himself nor subsequent researchers have found much empirical support – were grounded in well-founded skepticism that changes in expected inflation do not affect the real interest rate. A Fisherian analysis of an increase in expected deflation at the zero lower bound shows that the burden of the adjustment must be borne by an increase in the real interest rate. Of course, such a scenario might be dismissed as a special case, which it certainly is, but I very much doubt that it is the only assumptions leading to the conclusion that a change in expected inflation or deflation affects the real as well as the nominal interest rate.
Although Keynes's criticism of the Fisher equation (or more precisely against the conventional simplistic interpretation) was not well argued, his intuition was sound. And in his contribution to the Fisher festschrift, Keynes (1937b) correctly identified the two key assumptions leading to the conclusion that changes in inflation expectations are reflected entirely in nominal interest rates: (1) a unique real equilibrium and (2) the neutrality (actually superneutrality) of money. Keynes's intuition was confirmed by Hirshleifer (1970, 135-38) who derived the Fisher equation as a theorem by performing a comparative-statics exercise in a two-period general-equilibrium model with money balances, when the money stock in the second period was increased by an exogenous shift factor k. The price level in the second period increases by a factor of k and the nominal interest rate increases as well by a factor of k, with no change in the real interest rate.
But typical Keynesian and New Keynesian macromodels based on the assumption of no capital or a single capital good drastically oversimplify the analysis, because those highly aggregated models assume that the determination of the real interest rate takes place in a single market. The market-clearing assumption invites the conclusion that the rate of interest, like any other price, is determined by the equality of supply and demand – both of which are functions of that price — in that market.
The equilibrium rate of interest, as C. J. Bliss (1975) explains in the context of an intertemporal general-equilibrium analysis, is not a price; it is an intertemporal rate of exchange characterizing the relationships between all equilibrium prices and expected equilibrium prices in the current and future time periods. To say that the interest rate is determined in any single market, e.g., a market for loanable funds or a market for cash balances, is, at best, a gross oversimplification, verging on fallaciousness. The interest rate or term structure of interest rates is a reflection of the entire intertemporal structure of prices, so a market for something like loanable funds cannot set the rate of interest at a level inconsistent with that intertemporal structure of prices without disrupting and misaligning that structure of intertemporal price relationships. The interest rates quoted in the market for loanable funds are determined and constrained by those intertemporal price relationships, not the other way around.
In the real world, in which current prices, future prices and expected future prices are not and almost certainly never are in an equilibrium relationship with each other, there is always some scope for second-order variations in the interest rates transacted in markets for loanable funds, but those variations are still tightly constrained by the existing intertemporal relationships between current, future and expected future prices. Because the conditions under which Hirshleifer derived his theorem demonstrating that changes in expected inflation are fully reflected in nominal interest rates are not satisfied, there is no basis for assuming that a change in expected inflation affect only nominal interest rates with no effect on real rates.
There are probably a huge range of possible scenarios of how changes in expected inflation could affect nominal and real interest rates. One should not disregard the Fisher equation as one possibility, it seems completely unwarranted to assume that it is the most plausible scenario in any actual situation. If we read Keynes at the end of his marvelous Chapter 17 in the General Theory in which he remarks that he has abandoned the belief he had once held in the existence of a unique natural rate of interest, and has come to believe that there are really different natural rates corresponding to different levels of unemployment, we see that he was indeed, notwithstanding his detour toward a pure liquidity preference theory of interest, groping his way toward a proper understanding of the Fisher equation.
In my Treatise on Money I defined what purported to be a unique rate of interest, which I called the natural rate of interest – namely, the rate of interest which, in the terminology of my Treatise, preserved equality between the rate of saving (as there defined) and the rate of investment. I believed this to be a development and clarification of of Wicksell's "natural rate of interest," which was, according to him, the rate which would preserve the stability of some, not quite clearly specified, price-level.
I had, however, overlooked the fact that in any given society there is, on this definition, a different natural rate for each hypothetical level of employment. And, similarly, for every rate of interest there is a level of employment for which that rate is the "natural" rate, in the sense that the system will be in equilibrium with that rate of interest and that level of employment. Thus, it was a mistake to speak of the natural rate of interest or to suggest that the above definition would yield a unique value for the rate of interest irrespective of the level of employment. . . .
If there is any such rate of interest, which is unique and significant, it must be the rate which we might term the neutral rate of interest, namely, the natural rate in the above sense which is consistent with full employment, given the other parameters of the system; though this rate might be better described, perhaps, as the optimum rate. (pp. 242-43)
Because Keynes believed that an increased in the expected future price level implies an increase in the marginal efficiency of capital, it follows that an increase in expected inflation under conditions of less than full employment would increase investment spending and employment, thereby raising the real rate of interest as well the nominal rate. Cottrell (1994) has attempted to make an argument along such lines within a traditional IS-LM framework. I believe that, in a Fisherian framework, my argument points in a similar direction.


The list for Deliciously Ella granola (crunchy orange, coconut & vanilla flavour) is pretty long, and largely par for the course for granola with things like oats, raisin, nuts and seeds.
If you're not a cinnamon addict like me, the amount of 4 teaspoons, might be a little more than you have in, or your entire store.
The only unusual ingredient is vanilla powder. Commonly, in the UK, most people use vanilla extract and that's exactly what I used instead.
There's no servings or yield on the recipe page. I can say it made… a lot. I filled two oven trays with the stuff before it went into the oven, and when it came out I filled one large glass jar and a plastic Tupperware box. Altogether, it lasted about 8 large breakfasts (big bowls of just granola and dairy free milk, which my husband enjoys first thing in the morning), and a few smoothie bowl toppings for me.
Very sweet! That was the first impression. That and it's more like some kind of… toasted muesli than the granola I usually make. The orange twist is great and I like the idea of adding the raisins after the bake, rather than before. I've mentioned before that you have to be really careful with raisins since they burn so easily, and keeping them 'raw' actually works great since the raisins stay sweet, with no bitter edge that comes from slightly burnt raisins.
The whole bottle of maple syrup required make this a pretty expensive recipe to make, and it ends up a little too sweet for my granola taste. I do like the orange addition though. It makes plenty, definitely, which offsets the cost of the maple syrup I guess. However, 'makes plenty' for us lasted about 8-9 breakfasts for my husband (and I stole a little for a smoothie bowl).
Would I make it again? No… but yes. Let me explain before you roll your eyes.
The no: personally, it's sweeter than I like in a granola. Day to day, first thing in the morning, I generally like to use fruit as my sweetener, rather than processed syrups. I also like my granola to be more… cluster-y. This felt more akin to muesli. However, I'll take lessons learnt here and use them moving forward – I'll happily add orange to future granola recipes (I have a fab idea for some festive, Christmas-sy granola growing in my brain as I type), and I'll add raisins after baking from now on.
The yes: if I make granola for other people I'll definitely consider making this Deliciously Ella granola recipe. I think most people would like the extra sweetness that a bottle of maple syrup adds!
Almonds, Cinnamon, Oats, Orange Juice, Pumpkin Seeds, Sunflower Seeds.


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Q: How to prove that a sequence diverges using the Cauchy definition? It was a question of my integral calculus exam:
Write the Cauchy definition of
$\lim_{n\rightarrow\infty}  a_n  = L$
So, I literally wrote:
" $\{a_n\}$ is a Cauchy sequence if given $\epsilon>0$ there exists $N \in \mathbb{N}$ such that $\forall\ m,n\in\mathbb{N}$ if $n,m\ge N$, then $|a_n - a_m|<\epsilon$, or with symbols:
$\forall\epsilon>0:\exists N\in\mathbb{N}:\forall\ m,n \in\mathbb{N}: m,n\ge N\implies |a_n - a_m|<\epsilon$.
And if $\{a_n\}$ is a Cauchy sequence, then $\lim_{n\rightarrow\infty}  a_n  = L$  ( i.e. $\{a_n\}$ converges) "
The following question was:
With this definition, find $\lim_{n\rightarrow\infty}  (3n+2)$
And that is what I did:
I proposed that $\lim_{n\rightarrow\infty}  (3n+2)   = \infty$ i.e.  $\{3n+2\}$ diverges.  So I think that I have to prove that this limit is equal to infinity using the Cauchy definition.
But if a sequence $\{a_n\}$ diverges $\implies$ $\{a_n\}$ is not a Cauchy sequence.
And $\{a_n\}$ is not a Cauchy sequence if
$\exists\epsilon>0:\forall N\in\mathbb{N}:\exists\ m,n \in\mathbb{N}:$   $m,n\ge N$ and $|a_n - a_m|\ge\epsilon$ $(1)$
So, I must to prove $(1)$.
$(1)$ says that there exists $m,n\in\mathbb{N}$ such that ..., so $(1)$ has not to apply $\forall m,n\in\mathbb{N}$, and for this fact (I think) I can assign convinient values to $m,n$ in order to prove $(1)$:
If i choose $m=N+1,n=N$ then $|3(N+1)+2 -(3N+2)|=3>2$.
So exists $\epsilon=2>0 $ such that $\forall N \in\mathbb{N}:$
there exists $m=N+1, n=N$ such that $N+1,N \ge N$ and $|3(N+1)+2 -(3N+2)|=3>\epsilon$.
Hence $\{3n+2\}$ is not a Cauchy sequence $\implies$  $\lim_{n\rightarrow\infty}  (3n+2)   = \infty$.
Is my proof correct? If it is not correct, could you help me proving that, please?

A: The definition of a Cauchy sequence is:
$\forall \epsilon > 0, \exists N \in  \mathbb{N}: \forall m,n \in \mathbb{N}: m,n \ge N \implies |a_m-a_n| < \epsilon$, and the negation of this definition is:
$\exists \epsilon > 0, \forall N \in \mathbb{N}, \exists m,n \in \mathbb{N}: m,n \ge N, |a_m - a_n| \ge \epsilon$.
For your sequence $a_n = 3n+2, n \ge 1$, choose $\epsilon = 1$ (your choice is $3$), for any $N \in \mathbb{N}$, let $n =N, m = N+1$. Observe $m, n \ge N$, and $|a_m - a_n| = |a_{N+1} - a_{N}|= |3(N+1) - 2 - 3N+2|= 3 > 1= \epsilon $. Thus the sequence above is not Cauchy.

A: You did not write the def'n of $\lim_{n\to \infty}a_n=L.$ What you wrote in response to "Define what it means for $(a_n)_n$ to converge to $L$" was: " $(a_n)_n$ is a Cauchy sequence (which means ...) which converges to $L$."
The def'n of $\lim_{n\to \infty}a_n=L$ is $$\forall r>0\;\exists m\;\forall n>m\;(|L-a_n|<r).$$ I have omitted specifying that $m,n\in \mathbb N.$ It is conventional that in "$\lim_{n\to \infty}a_n$", the values of $n$ are restricted to members of $\mathbb N$ unless  stated otherwise.

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#FocusOnReading No4. – So you think you know about comprehension?
It's been a busy few days here at Primary English HQ. Just a few days ago we hosted the headline event in our #FocusOnReading: our Reading Conference, featuring the fabulous James Clements. Unfortunately for us, our associate Andrea Sherratt was unable to join us due to a prior commitment in London. This is not to say that she was not maintaining the Primary English #FocusOnReading, as she was at the Institute of Education learning more about comprehension. In this latest installment in our #FocusOnReading series, Andrea shares a few snippets of sage advice garnered on her trip to London.
So I thought I knew about comprehension!
For me, there is always something quite exciting about the journey to a training course; the expectations, anticipation and the wondering about unknown. My journey down to training in London yesterday was no different.
The event was a two day 'Inference Training' trainer course, delivered by Tony Whatmuff, from Leicester LA. The purpose: to become equipped to support whole school improvements in comprehension, and I must admit to assuming there probably wouldn't be many new insights that I hadn't already covered in my MA studies of 'Literacy Learning and Literacy Difficulties'. But how wrong I was; a personal lesson that there are always new things to be learnt. Every day's a school day!
From the very first moments of the training, it became clear that this was going to be a turning point in my understanding of how to efficiently and effectively support children's development of comprehension. So let me share with you just three of the many insightful points I have gleamed over the last two days.
Active listeners make active readers!
Training children to actively listen to texts that are read aloud to them is vital in order for the development of proficient readers. From the day they walk through our doors, you can support your children to grow as active listeners through modelling your thought processes as you read, with opportunities for predicting, discussing and visualising stories. Activities such as 'turn to your partner' to discuss or drawing a visual image of the story in four parts.
Inference requires the listener and reader to 'Think like a detective'.
This process begins early and requires the child to go beyond the literal. Like pieces of a jigsaw, successful readers bring together pieces of information, making links from the information in order to get the 'gist' of the text. For many children this needs to be modelled with the necessary strategies being explicitly taught. Tony encourages both adult and child to 'think aloud' as they go through the process of piecing together the information.
Good readers have a range of, what Tony calls, 'breakdown strategies'. A toolkit of things to try if they detect their reading does not make sense. In my recent experience, when a child begins to struggle on particular words within text, their default strategy is to 'sound it out'. This may not always be the most efficient or effective way of dealing with the obstacle and if we can equip children to have a 'toolkit' of strategies, they will have the flexibility to choose from a number of ways to repair the breakdown. E.g. re-read sentence/phrase to clarify, look back and identify key words to get meaning, think aloud and verbalise thoughts, make a rich picture in their mind.
Give these three points some thought for when you are next reading with your children. I'd love to hear from you in terms of what difference a few tweaks in your practice have made.


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Covid strains compared – which is more deadly from Brazilian to South African?
Terri-Ann Williams
Updated: 12:14, 1 Mar 2021
A NEW coronavirus variant has been detected in the UK for the first time.
The Brazilian variant called P.1 adds to a catalogue of concerning strains circulating in the UK, each with their own characteristics.
🦠 Read our coronavirus live blog for the latest news & updates...
There are three main variants of the virus that experts are concerned about
A variant that originated in the UK, which goes by the nickname the "Kent variant" is dominant, causing several hundreds of thousands of cases so far.
The South African variant has been detected hundreds of times and prompted surge testing across England.
And the new Brazil variant has so far been detected six times - but not all cases have been identified by health officials, causing trouble for contact tracing.
The mutations in new coronavirus strains give them an edge over the "original" strain that popped up first in Wuhan.
They can either make them more able to spread, cause severe disease, reinfection, or weaken vaccine efficacy.
Vaccines have been hailed as the way out of the pandemic and so far in the UK over 20 million people have received their first dose.
But health officials say although the vaccines will still work to prevent severe disease, it is likely the jabs will need to be tweaked in the future to fight new coronavirus variants.
There are still a number of unanswered questions about each new variant, as scientists carry out vital research.
So what do we know so far?
UK VARIANT
The UK strain - called VUI202012/01 - first emerged in Kent in September and caused cases to surge despite the national lockdown in November.
Boris Johnson revealed the variant was up to 70 per cent more contagious than the original strain.
It was in part responsible for the third national lockdown in England after the tiers system was unable to control the spread.
The Kent strain was later found to be between 30 per cent and 70 per cent more deadly, according to the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (NERVTAG) - a sub-group of Sage.
But there is no evidence to indicate existing treatments, such as dexamethasone, will not be effective against it.
But scientists are confident that vaccines being given in the UK will still protect against this variant, which is good news because it has become the most dominant.
The Kent strain mutated again at the start of this year to mimic the South African variant.
Cases of this variant have been detected a handful of times in Bristol, therefore it got nicknamed the "Bristol variant".
It has a mutation known as E484K, which is already present in both South African and Brazilian coronavirus variants.
Laboratory studies have shown that antibodies are less able to bind to a part of the virus known as the spike protein, in order to stop it from unlocking human cells to gain entry.
When the new strain first emerged experts said the symptoms were the same to variants already in circulation.
The three main symptoms to watch out for according to the NHS are a new persistent cough, a loss of taste and smell (anosmia) and a high temperature.
However it was last week revealed that people suffering with the Kent mutation are more likely to get a cough, sore throat, tiredness and muscle pain.
What variants are health officials most concerned about?
There are currently four variants labelled a "variant of concern":
– UK/Kent variant: First detected in the UK and was first sequenced in the UK in September 2020 and called B117.
– UK/Kent variant + E484K mutation: This variant was first detected in Bristol and is the UK variant (B117) with a genetic change also found in both the South African and Brazilian variants, E484K.
– South African variant: First detected in South Africa and first sequenced in the UK in December 2020. It is called 501.V2.
– Brazilian variant: First detected in Japan in travellers from Brazil in January 2021 and has now been detected in the UK. It is called P1.
There is also a variant under investigation, a second variant from Brazil, called P2, that has been detected in a handful of cases in the UK, but is not causing scientists serious concern.
The South African variant is called 501.V2.
The Health Secretary revealed the new and "highly concerning" strain had entered Britain during a press briefing on December 23.
The strain was announced by the South African government on December 18.
In order to contain the strain all flights from South Africa were stopped and anyone who had visited South Africa in the past two weeks, or been in contact with someone who has, had to quarantine immediately.
But it has still managed to spread in the UK, causing more than 200 cases so far.
Surge testing has been carried out in multiple locations in England - including in London, Leeds and Liverpool - over the past few weeks in order to prevent further spread.
The South African strain is thought to be more transmissible, up to 50 per cent more.
But although scientists say there is a "hint" it is more deadly from studies in South Africa, where the strain is more dominant, there has been no clear evidence of this yet.
Surge testing has been carried out in multiple locations in England to find cases of the South African variant. Pictured: Door-to-door testing in Woking, February 18Credit: London News Pictures
Where surge testing is currently taking place, as of March 1
The South African variant carries the E484K mutation which experts suggest may be better at evading the human immune response.
The vaccine developed by Pfizer and BioNTech is effective against this variant, according to a study from the US.
However, a separate study suggested that the Oxford/AstraZeneca jab was not effective at preventing mild illness caused by the more infectious South African mutation.
But the jab will protect against deaths and severe disease amid the spread of the South African variant, according to researchers.
Moderna said lab tests of its vaccine found there was a six-fold reduction in neutralising antibodies produced against the South African variant. However, the levels remained above those that are expected to be protective.
It is not yet known if the South African strain has any different symptoms than the three standards ones highlighted by health officials.
BRAZILIAN VARIANT
The Brazil variant has now been detected in the UK six times - three in England, and three in Scotland.
But one case in England has not been traced back to the infected person, after being found through random genetic sequencing of test swabs.
Surge testing is now underway in South Gloucestershire, where the other two cases in England have been found. One was a traveller from Brazil, and the other a household member.
The strain, called P.1, emerged in the Brazilian city of Manaus in December.
The P.1 variant is associated with a surge of cases in Manaus late last year, which led to a severe second wave of Covid-19.
Because the city had a high level of immunity, due to its first wave of Covid, scientists were concerned because this raised the possibility it is able more easily re-infect patients due to the mutations it carries.
But it is not clear if P.1 causes more severe illness or death at this stage.
The Brazilian variant has three key mutations in the spike receptor binding domain (RBD) - a vital part of the coronavirus structure - that largely mirror some of the mutations experts are worried about in the South African variant.
Like the South African variant, the Brazilian one carries a mutation in the spike protein called E484K.
All variants the have caught the attention of scientists and health officials in recent weeks
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IN TIERS
Coronavirus UK - Ministers considering contingency plans for local lockdowns
Its possible that vaccines may not be as effective against it.
It is also believed that the variant is up to 50 per cent more transmissible than those already in circulation.
The Government haven't specified what the symptoms of the new strain from Brazil are.
Another Brazilian variant, called P.2, has been detected in the UK. But experts say it is not a cause for concern.
Kent Covid strain 'mutates AGAIN to mimic South African variant – and could resist vaccines'
Health explainers
Work from home order to end as Scots to return to offices within weeks


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Home / Cruise Lines / Avalon Waterways / / Christmas Time in Alsace & Germany Cruise
Christmas Time in Alsace & Germany Cruise
Departure DateSun 4th Dec 2022
Avalon Waterways Avalon Visionary
4 Night Cruise From Basel
Day 1 - Basel
Arrive: Sun 04 December 2022 / Depart: Sun 04 December 2022
Basel is a city on the Rhine River in northwest Switzerland, close to the country's borders with France and Germany. Its medieval old town centers around Marktplatz, dominated by the 16th-century, red-sandstone Town Hall. Its 12th-century Gothic cathedral has city views, and contains the tomb of the 16th-century Dutch scholar, Erasmus. The city's university houses some of Erasmus' works.
Day 2 - Breisach
Arrive: Mon 05 December 2022 / Depart: Mon 05 December 2022
Breisach is a town with approximately 16,500 inhabitants, situated along the Rhine in the Rhine Valley, in the district Breisgau-Hochschwarzwald, Baden-Württemberg, Germany, about halfway between Freiburg and Colmar — 20 kilometres away from each — and about 60 kilometres north of Basel near the Kaiserstuhl.
Day 3 - Strasbourg
Arrive: Tue 06 December 2022 / Depart: Tue 06 December 2022
Strasbourg is the capital city of the Grand Est region, formerly Alsace, in northeastern France. It's also the formal seat of the European Parliament and sits near the German border, with culture and architecture blending German and French influences. Its Gothic Cathédrale Notre-Dame features daily shows from its astronomical clock and sweeping views of the Rhine River from partway up its 142m spire.
Day 4 - Speyer
Arrive: Wed 07 December 2022 / Depart: Wed 07 December 2022
Speyer is a city in Rhineland-Palatinate in Germany with approximately 50,000 inhabitants. Located on the left bank of the river Rhine, Speyer lies 25 km south of Ludwigshafen and Mannheim, and 21 km south-west of Heidelberg. Founded by the Romans, it is one of Germany's oldest cities
Day 5 - Frankfurt
Frankfurt, a central German city on the river Main, is a major financial hub that's home to the European Central Bank. It's the birthplace of famed writer Johann Wolfgang von Goethe, whose former home is now the Goethe House Museum. Like much of the city, it was damaged during World War II and later rebuilt.