As the day ends, I look back on it and can say I accomplished a few things. It's going to be kinda like the guy who pulls semis -- you put a lot effort in getting it started, but if you persevere, momentum kicks in a makes it easier.
One of the main things I did today was protecting my blog. As soon as I got it installed, I backed it up using Backup Creator. There's so many bots and as much tinkering as I'll be doing to it, I don't want to lose the work I've invested. I also plan on using this backup as a base for installing other sites. This is pretty bare-bones so I can use it as the starting point for other blogs or for clients.
I also decided to install this on my Host Then Profit account. I have had the service for a few months and so far only used the autoresponder. Since I plan on promoting this as one of my revenue streams, I really need to know if it works. And it does.
I must say, initially I was put off because I was unfamiliar with the process of creating accounts. But after working through it, it's not so bad. One thing I appreciate is 'Blogger Builder' which puts a 'kinder' interface to working with WordPress, which will come in handy for a new person.
So that's a good start for today. Over the next few days things are going to grow and change, and so will I.
Follow along on this journey and feel free to 'like and share' it with others.


Color palettes pop up everywhere you look. Recently, I've been experimenting in the kitchen with some low sugar jams. I nearly had a cardiac incident when I saw the recipe called for a 2:1 ratio of sugar to fruit. I'm not a fan of overly sugary anything, so I had a look around and am now working on a recipe that calls for a fraction of the sugar, and no commercial pectin. So while I wait to see if my jams will set, or if I have many jars of lovely ice cream topping (life is a win-win if you have the right perspective), I thought I would share the beautiful colors that nature brings in to the kitchen. My jam is a strawberry-lemon-mint, and the beautiful yellows, greens and reds are a natural mix for a summer setting.
This is a great palette for entertaining outdoors, or even a bright, sunny room bursting with greenery and vibrant accessories. You can run with the bolder shades on big areas, or if the lighter shades appeal, you can reserve the bolder tones for small pops of color.
And as always, we're here to help if your color scheme needs refreshing. We've got a range of virtual and in-person color consultations that offer you a full package of color palettes, and the information you need to apply them.


text:
Odrisamer Despaigne's struggles too much for White Sox to overcome in 10-3 loss to the Yankees
By LaMond Pope
| Post-Tribune |
The Yankees placed runners on first and third with no outs in the first inning Sunday against the White Sox. Odrisamer Despaigne worked out of the jam without surrendering a run.
The Sox starting pitcher wasn't as fortunate when he ran into trouble again in the third.
Despaigne allowed five runs in the third, all with two outs, and lasted just 4 1/3 innings in a 10-3 loss to the Yankees in front of a sellout crowd of 37,277 at Guaranteed Rate Field.
Despaigne (0-2) allowed seven runs and nine hits in his second outing with the Sox.
"He's got a lot of weapons, (but) falling behind (in the count) is probably one of the things you don't want to do," Sox manager Rick Renteria said. "For him, his weapons work if he's ahead in the count. We saw that when he did work ahead, he can do any number of things. Falling behind puts him in a position where he has to put the ball in the zone."
Despaigne struck out five but walked four.
"(Despaigne) comes from different angles, different speeds, can quick-pitch you, has a good fastball, he can run it up there 94 miles per hour and he can throw you a 66 miles per hour curveball," Renteria said. "It's just a matter of working ahead to be able to use whatever weapon he wants to finish a guy off."
Despaigne struggled with command in the third. He allowed three walks and five hits in the five-run inning.
"I was feeling good at the beginning of the game," Despaigne said via an interpreter. "I was attacking the strike zone with my fastball, everything was good. And then in the third inning, I started falling behind in the counts. I was trying to fight back and I couldn't.
"That's not a good thing when you fall behind in the count with those kinds of hitters because you're going to pay for it. I paid for it."
Brett Gardner and Austin Romine had two-run singles in the inning. Both finished with four RBIs.
The loss was doubly painful for the Sox. Third baseman Yoan Moncada and catcher Welington Castillo left the game with back injuries.
Castillo will be re-evaluated Monday, while Moncada, who missed the previous four games because of back tightness, is day to day.
Jose Abreu had three hits, including a solo home run, his team-leading 17th homer. Abreu leads the American League with 54 RBIs.
José's 17th home run and American League-leading 54th RBI gives us an early lead!#VoteAbreu: https://t.co/YDVa3Wfc7e pic.twitter.com/c36serZE9u
— Chicago White Sox (@whitesox) June 16, 2019
James McCann had two hits, including his sixth homer.
Latest White Sox
Eloy Jimenez goes on the 10-day injured list with a right ulnar nerve contusion
Eloy Jimenez's 1st-inning injury a bad omen for the White Sox, who get blown out 11-0 for their 5th straight loss
Expectations for the White Sox rose, then the losses started piling up. How are they handling it?
White Sox catcher Welington Castillo, back from the injured list, ready to 'let it go' at the plate
The White Sox need Tim Anderson back — but there's no timetable for his return
The Sox had to settle for a split of the four-game series, but they finished 4-3 against the Yankees this season. It's their first season-series victory against the Yankees since 2012.
"That's something we reminded each other," McCann said. "We split this series and we took the series from them at their place. We took the season series from a team that is one of the best in baseball. It's not the way we wanted to finish (Sunday), but overall you have to be happy with taking a season series from a team like that."
lpope@post-trib.com
Twitter @lamondpope
Yoan Moncada and Welington Castillo exit early with tight backs, and White Sox reportedly are calling up former 1st-round pick Zack Collins »
Paul Sullivan: The White Sox's character is coming through loud and clear against the Yankees — and they make no apologies for it »
What channel is the White Sox game on? Time and TV for upcoming games »
Yoan Moncada
Guaranteed Rate Field

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


text:
Q: AD authentication in ASP.Net website I have an ASP.net application with a 'Login' page which authenticates a user against AD. I am using 'Anonymous' authentication for this website and hosting on IIS 7.5.  I want to modify it so that when the user clicks on the icon to go to this website(the icon sits on another website), if the user in the "office network", my website should not ask for his credentials. If the user is not within the network, the 'Login' page should load. Can someone help achieve this?
I tried using the following Session_Start but didn't work:
if (HttpContext.Current.User != null)
    {
        if (HttpContext.Current.User.Identity.IsAuthenticated == true)
        {

            HttpContext.Current.Response.Redirect("Default.aspx");
        }
    }
    else
    {
        HttpContext.Current.Response.Redirect("LogonPage.aspx");
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redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


The TESOL International Convention & English Language Expo offers professional development to all levels of English language educators globally. English language educators at all levels from around the world will gather in Atlanta, GA on March 12 – 15, 2019 to integrate knowledge of current trends in the field while developing a professional network.
Take advantage of this exclusive opportunity to send a direct marketing message to attendees before the show. Order the TESOL 2019 attendee list today!
*Postal Fees include delivery and NCOA.
**Email Fees include HTML and Text Set-up, Opt-out File Suppression, Deployment, and Tracking Report.
All text, code and/or artwork changes to HTML email document(s) are the sole responsibility of the emailer. Any changes handled by INFOCUS will incu a chare of $100/hour with a 1 hour minimum.


Authors are invited to submit a draft of a full paper with at most 12 pages. Electronic Notes in Theoretical Computer Science (ENTCS) have agreed to publish the proceedings of RP08. ENTCS require submissions in LaTeX, formatted according to their guidelines . Proofs omitted due to space constraints must be put into an appendix to be read by the program committee members at their discretion. Submissions deviating from these guidelines risk rejection. Electronic submissions should be formatted in postscript or pdf. Simultaneous submission to other conferences or workshops with published proceedings is not allowed.
In addition to the formal presentations based on our ENTCS proceedings volume, we invite researchers to present informal presentations. For this, please send us a brief description of your talk (in PDF-format, at most 2 pages) before 1 August 2008.
You can submit an informal presentation by e-mail [rp2008 at csc.liv.ac.uk]. Please include the following details: Your Name, E-Mail Address, Personal Homepage, Affiliation, Name(s) of co-author(s) (if applicable), Title of the Talk and Extended abstract. You will be notified whether your informal presentation has been accepted usually within a week after the deadline.
The proceedings of the workshop will appear in Electronic Notes in Theoretical Computer Science (ENTCS). ENTCS is published electronically on ScienceDirect©, Elsevier's main platform for electronic publication to provide rapid publication and broad dissemination of the volumes in the series. Selected papers will appear in a special issue of a high quality journal.


text:
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redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaGithub


Are you ready for trail nirvana?
It has been a long and hard drive to this point. Where we are able to finally open entries for the MUT 2019. After the fires swept through the mountains of George in October last year, we have been hard at work with Cape Nature trying to establish the condition of the trails and trying to predict what the mountain would be like in June this year.
Entries will open tomorrow 08:00am 18 January 2019.
The second MUT is set to take place in June 2019, the mountain is green and tunring back to its former glory, some might say it will be in an even better condition come MUT time!
Come join us, as we showcase our home trails to the trail running community!
#MUTSocks 😱 🧦 That's right, Versus Socks has partnered with us to bring you our very own Mid Length Running MUT Socks this year. You can add them to our entry when entering tomorrow for R125 bucks!
We run here, we smile here, we live for our Mountain, come join us on the Outeniquas!


The KlassikDrain KS100 drain system and Heelsafe anti-slip grates from ACO Polycrete were installed at the Surfers Paradise Foreshore redevelopment project.
The $25m upgrade aims to reconnect the heart of Surfers Paradise to the beach as well as create a safe, accessible public space with improved recreational opportunities and necessary infrastructure for major events. The wide pedestrian promenade encompassing barbeques and picnic areas required a trench drainage system.
Designers selected long runs of the sloped KlassikDrain KS100 trench drain system to minimise connection to the underlying stormwater pipe.
Grade 316 stainless steel Heelsafe anti-slip grates were also installed to deliver durability in the salt water environment.
ACO products also used in the project included Rhinocast ductile iron access covers and ACO Cablemate trafficable enclosures.


In recent months, we have heard a lot about physician burnout, medical student suicide, and other health care provider health and wellness issues. A growing problem, and one that is difficult to combat, as physician shortages are predicted to rise in the future, placing ever more burden on those in the system.
Shortages lead to issues accessing care. We worry about whether it will become more difficult for patients to access health care services, leading to poorer health outcomes. Before now, not much attention was paid to whether or not the doctors themselves had difficulty accessing care.
Little is known about the contribution to physician health of access to care. One might assume that for a medical doctor, care access is as simple as walking across the hall.
Unfortunately, nothing is that simple.
A study published in BMC Health Services Research, co-led by Hassan Murad, M.D., and Philip Hagen, M.D., preventive medicine physicians at Mayo Clinic, reports findings regarding physician access to care.
They hoped that in the last two years, with rising visibility of the health needs of physicians, the situation might have changed.
However, they found this was not the case.
They surveyed physicians attending two different primary care education conferences, and received disturbing feedback.
Physicians have difficulty accessing health care services, with women reporting more issues than men.
The majority (61 percent) reported reverting to self-diagnosis and self-treatment.
The main barriers cited by physicians were finding time for health care, concern about confidentiality, and lack of encouragement by employer.
Physicians commonly reported experiencing a career threatening illness themselves, or in a colleague, and reported concern about a colleague being able to safely practice due to illness.
Participants ranked substance abuse as the most common illnesses affecting a physician's ability to practice followed by psychiatric disorders, heart disease, neurological disorders and cancer.
Dr. Murad and his colleagues hope to see change as the result of their findings. Specifically more programs to provide health care to physicians, because they are a group at increased health risk.
Many states have programs that focus on substance abuse and do not offer primary care or preventive services for physicians (Physician Health Program). At Mayo Clinic, there is a Physician Health Center, offering coordinated and customized access to high quality health care with full occupational and preventive services to physicians. But in general, resources in the nation are far and few between.
Dr. Murad hopes that too will change.
Dr. Murad is also a health sciences researcher in the Mayo Clinic Robert D. and Patricia E. Kern Center for the Science of Health Care Delivery and the director of the Evidence-based Practice Center.
hysicians commonly reported experiencing a [url=http://www.google.com/]google[/url]career threatening illness themselves, or in a colleague, and reported concern about a colleague being able to safely practice due to illness.


College students feel constant pressure not only to perform well academically but also to look their best. Body image is defined as an individual's perception of his or her overall appearance. It includes more than just weight, encompassing shape, hair, skin and even style.
Our body images are formed from the feedback (both negative and positive) that we get from those around us. For college students, peer feedback has the greatest impact. Body image is also greatly affected by how we compare ourselves to the culturally ideal body, which we see in the media. For women, that means a Barbie-like body that measures 36-24-36 and, ultimately, is impossible for almost everyone to attain. Trying to get the kind of body that you see in magazines and music videos is not only unrealistic, it's unhealthy. Unfortunately, many college students spend a great deal of time and money striving for such a body.
Surveys have shown that the majority of women have a distorted perception of their bodies. Around 75 percent of college-aged women think they're fat when, in reality, only 25 percent are medically overweight (which is the same percentage as men). Shockingly, 45 percent of underweight women consider themselves to be fat.
An unhealthy body image can lead to a number of negative physical-health effects. Most importantly, it can lead to eating disorders such as anorexia, bulimia and binge eating. It can also make you more likely to take up smoking as a means of controlling your appetite.
Think about all the things that you like about yourself that have nothing to do with weight or appearance. Write some of them down.
Look at yourself as a whole, including both the inside and the out. Never focus on one specific body part.
Wear clothing that you feel comfortable in and that makes you feel confident about your appearance.
Be critical of the images you see in the media. Don't buy in to everything you see in a magazine or television commercial.
Help others feel good about themselves.


How likely is the NSA PRISM program to catch a terrorist?
Recent revelations about PRISM, the NSA's massive program of surveillance of civilian communications have caused quite a stir. And rightfully so, as it appears that the agency has been granted warrantless direct access to just about any form of digital communication engaged in by American citizens, and that their access to such data has been growing significantly over the past few years.
Some may argue that there is a necessary trade-off between civil liberties and public safety, and that others should just quit their whining. Lets take a look at this proposition (not the whining part). Specifically, let's ask: how much benefit, in terms of thwarted would-be attacks, does this level of surveillance confer?
Lets start by recognizing that terrorism is extremely rare. So the probability that an individual under surveillance (and now everyone is under surveillance) is also a terrorist is also extremely low. Lets also assume that the neck-beards at the NSA are fairly clever, if exceptionally creepy. We assume that they have devised an algorithm that can detect 'terrorist communications' (as opposed to, for instance, pizza orders) with 99% accuracy.
P(bad guy | +) =??
Further, lets say that the spooks have a pretty good algorithm that only comes up falsely positive (ie when the person under surveillance is a good guy) one in one hundred times.
That is, for every positive (the NSA calls these 'reports') there is only a 1 in 10,102 chance (using our rough assumptions) that they've found a real bad guy.
UPDATE: While former NSA analyst turned whistle blower William Binney thinks this is a plausible estimate, the point here is not that this is the 'correct probability' involved (remember that we based our calculations on very rough assumptions). The take away message is simply that whenever the rate of an event of interest is extremely low, even a very accurate test will fail very often.
UPDATE 2: The Wall Street Journal's Numbers Guy has written a piece on this in which several statisticians and security experts respond.
UPDATE 3: If you can read German, a reader reached me to point out that Der Spiegel technology section picked up the story.
Big brother is always watching, but he's still got a needle in a haystack problem.
The television series doesn't have this problem. On the show, they're all bad guys.
When making a statement of the form "1/2 is the correct probability that this coin will land tails", there are a few things which are left unsaid, but which are typically implied.
The statement is one about the probability of an unknown event occurring, and it would seem reasonable to write this statement using probability notation as P(toss=tails) = 0.5. And indeed many people would express it this way. However, what is missing is the state of knowledge under which this statement has been made. For instance, is the coin yet to be flipped, or is it currently rolling in a circle on the table, leaning in toward its final resting position? Perhaps the flipping device can consistently throw a coin such that it rotates exactly 5 times in the air before landing flat on the table, or we know which side is up at the start of the flip. In these latter cases, the statement of probability would be made under considerably more knowledge than the first, and would not tend to be 0.5 in these cases. An observer placing a probability of P(toss=tails) = 0.99 at the moment when the coin is circling in on its resting position, leaning heavily toward a tails up configuration, could be said to have the correct probability also. For fairness, lets say that the first observer also makes her probability statement at the same moment, but from another room where she cannot see what has happened.
How can P(toss=tails) = 0.5, and P(toss=tails) = 0.99 be simultaneously correct?
In practice, however, we often leave out the conditional part of the notation unless it is germane to the problem at hand. However, there is no such thing as unconditional probability. In fact, Harvard professor Joe Blitzstein calls conditioning the Soul of Statistics.
In the next post in this series, we'll start looking at how to assess the correctness of a (conditional) probability statement after having observed an outcome.
Here's a bunch of random walks — just 'cause its neat.
Where the area under the curve (the curve itself is the Receiver Operator Curve (ROC)) is some value between 0 and 1. The higher this value, the better your model is said to perform. The problem with this metric, as many authors have pointed out, is that a model can perform very well in terms of AUC, but be completely miscalibrated in terms of the actual probabilities placed on each outcome.
A model which distinguishes perfectly between positive and negative cases (AUC=1) by placing a probability of 0.01 on positive cases and 0.001 on negative cases may be very far off in terms of the actual probability of a positive case. For instance, positive cases may actually occur with probability 0.6 and negative cases with 0.2. In most real situations, our models will predict a whole range of different probabilities with a unique prediction for each data point, but the general idea remains. If your goal is simply to distinguish between cases, you may not care whether the probabilities are not correct. However, if your model is purporting to quantify risk then you very much want to know if you are placing the probabilistically true predictions on cases that are yet to be observed.
Which begs the question: What is probabilistic truth?
This questions appears, at least at first, to be rather simple. A frequentist definition would say that the probability is correct, or true, if the predicted probability is equal to the long run outcomes. Think of a dice rolled over and over counting the number of times a one is rolled. We would compare this frequency to our predicted probability of rolling a one (1/6 for a fair six-sided die) and would say that our predicted probability was true if this frequency matched 1/6.
But what about situations where we can't re-run an experiment over and over again? How then would we evaluate the probabilistic truth of our predictions?
I'll be working through this problem in a series of posts in the coming weeks. Stay tuned!
I've been showing my new favourite toys to just about anyone foolish enough to actually engage me in conversation. I described how my shiny new set of non-transitive dice work here, complete with a map showing all the relevant probabilities.
All was neat and tidy and wonderful until fellow ecologist, Aaron Ball, tried to burst my bubble.
Nope. I couldn't find the error. Fortunately, he works across the hall so I just went and asked him.
The problem he found, it turns out, was not with my calculations but with my assumptions. Aaron told me that dice constructed with rounded corners and hollowed out pips for the numbers on the faces tend to be biased in the frequency at which each face rolls up. I had assumed, of course, that each side of each of the five dice would roll with the same probability (ie. 1 in 6).
As with any model of a real world system, the mathematics were carried out on a simplified abstraction of the system being modelled. There are always, by necessity, assumptions being made. The important thing is to make these assumptions as explicit as possible and, where possible, to test the robustness of the model predictions to violations of the assumptions. Implicit to my calculations of the odds of the non-transitive Grime dice was the assumption that the dice are fair.
To check the model for robustness to this assumption, we can relax it and find out if we still get the same behaviour. Specifically, we can ask here whether some sort of pip-and-rounded-corner-induced bias can lead to a change in the Grime dice non-transitive cycles.
It seems a natural place to look would be between the dice pairings which have the closest to even odds. We can find out what level of bias would be required to switch the directionality of the odds (or at least erase the tendency for one die to roll higher than the other). Lets try looking at Magenta and Red, which under the fair dice assumption have odds p(Magenta > Red)=5/9. What kind of bias will change this relationship? The odds can be evened out by either Magenta rolling ones more often, or red rolling nine more often. The question is then, how much bias would there need to in the dice in order to even out the odds between Magenta and Red?
Lets start with Red biasing toward rolling nine more often (recall that nine appears on only one face). Under the fair dice hypothesis, Red can roll nine (1/6 of the time) and win no matter what Magenta rolls, or by rolling four (5/6 of the time) and win when Magenta rolls one (1/3 of the time).
P(Red > Magenta) = 1/6 + 5/6 * 1/3, which is 4/9.
If we set this probability equal to 1/2, and replace the fraction of times that Red rolls nine with x, we can solve for the frequency needed to even the odds.
Meaning that the Red die would have to be biased toward rolling nine with 2/9 odds. That's equivalent to rolling a nine 1 and 1/3 times (33%) more often than you would expect if the die were fair!
Alternatively, the other way the odds between Red and Magenta could be evened is if Magenta biased towards rolling ones more often. We can do the same kind of calculation as above to figure out how much bias would be needed.
Which corresponds to Magenta having a 20% bias toward rolling ones. Of course, some combination of these biases could also be possible.
I leave it to the reader to work out the other pairings, but from the Red-Magenta analysis we can see that even if the dice deviated quite a bit from the expected 1/6 probability for each side, the edge afforded to Magenta is retained. I couldn't find any convincing evidence for the extent of bias caused by pipping and rounded corners but it seems unlikely that it would be strong enough to change the structure of the game.