Vanadium catalysts supported on Al(Zr)-MCM-41-type materials were prepared by impregnation. Textural and structural properties, elemental composition and electronic structure were determined by N2 physisorption, small-angle XRD, SEM–EDX and UV–vis DRS, respectively. Al-containing materials showed mostly of Al framework and a small fraction of Al extra-framework species. Zr-containing materials presented almost exclusively small clusters of ZrxOy covering the MCM-41 matrix. Vanadium catalysts, showed the presence of isolated V5+ species and to a lesser extent polymeric chains likely as small crystallites of V2O5. The catalytic results revealed that VAlM30 catalyst, characterized by a Si/Al atomic ratio of 30, was the most active in thiophene hydrodesulfurization, which could be associated to better textural properties and high dispersion of the vanadium species.
The demand for crude oil worldwide has generated a reduction of light crude oil reserves and an increase of heavy and extra-heavy crude oils production. The extra-heavy fractions of crude oil are characterized by high contents of compound containing S, N and heavy-metals, such as Ni and V . Sulfur is the most abundant impurity in the crude oil, so that the main aim of a refinery is to produce ultra-clean fuels with low levels of sulfur . The hydrotreating (HDT) processes are extensively used to remove impurities from different streams [1, 2].
The most predominant metal in petroleum is vanadium, which is usually present in the form of porphyrins . During HDT processes, the porphyrins are decomposed and the metal is deposited as a sulfide on the catalyst surface causing its permanent deactivation [1, 4]. Although metal deposits are considered as one of the factors responsible for the catalysts deactivation, some authors have reported that these metal sulfides could act as catalytically active sites in the HDT processes [5, 6]. Therefore, the development of vanadium-based catalysts to carry out HDT reactions is considered to be a research area of great interest. A few studies have been reported on the use of vanadium catalysts in the HDT reactions [7, 8]. However, most of them have focused on the vanadium sulfides on bulk-form or supported over the conventional support, as alumina.
Mesoporous molecular sieves, as MCM-41, have been considered as a potential catalytic support in many reactions, including hydrodesulfurization (HDS) reactions [9, 10, 11]. The main advantage of these mesoporous materials is the possibility to obtain high dispersion of the active phase at high loadings because they possess a well-ordered hexagonal array of uniform mesopores and high surface areas [12, 13, 14]. On the other hand, just like in zeolites, the isomorphic substitution of Mx+ ions (x = 3 + or 4 +) in the mesoporous silica frameworks, induces surface acidity [15, 16] by generation of Brönsted type acid sites. The most of them are based on the Al-containing MCM-41-derivatives, which has been used as support for HDT catalysts [17, 18]. Transition metal substituted MCM-41 by, e.g., Zr , Ti  or Nb  have been less studied than Al-containing MCM-41, but have shown some potential applications for hydrotreatment reactions.
In the present work, it is reported a facile synthesis and characterization of some vanadium-based catalysts supported on MCM-41, pure and structurally modified with Al and Zr. The catalytic tests on thiophene HDS at atmospheric pressure were also carried out because, to our best knowledge, these metal combinations have not been evaluated in sulfur removal reactions.
Tetraethylorthosilicate (TEOS, 98%, Sigma-Aldrich), fumed silica (SiO2, particle size = 0.2–0.3 μm, surface area = 200 ± 35 m2/g, Sigma-Aldrich), tetramethylammonium hydroxide solution (TMAOH, 25% in H2O, Sigma-Aldrich), cetyltrimethylammonium bromide (CTMAB, ≥ 98%, Sigma-Aldrich), sodium hydroxide (NaOH, 98%, Riedel–de Haen), sulfuric acid (H2SO4, ≥ 97.5%, Sigma-Aldrich), aluminum (III) isopropoxide (Al[OCH(CH3)2]3, 98%, Sigma-Aldrich), zirconium (IV) propoxide solution (Zr(OCH2CH2CH3)4, 70% in propanol, Sigma-Aldrich), isopropanol ((CH3)2CHOH, 98%, Sigma-Aldrich), ethanol (CH3CH2OH, 99.8%, Sigma-Aldrich), ammonium metavanadate (NH4VO3, 99%, Sigma-Aldrich) and deionized water were used during support and catalyst preparations. All chemicals were used as received without further purification.
Pure siliceous MCM-41 material was synthesized according to a previously published procedure . In a typical experiment, NaOH was dissolved in deionized water and added to fumed SiO2, under magnetic agitation at 70 °C. An aqueous micellar solution was prepared using TMAOH and CTMAB. After that, the NaOH/SiO2 solution was added to the micellar solution and the pH adjusted to 9 with diluted H2SO4. The resulting gel was kept under magnetic agitation for 2 additional hours. The mixture was aged at room temperature for 24 h without stirring, filtered, washed, dried, pulverized and calcined at 550 °C for 8 h. The molar gel composition is shown in Table 1.
Al- and Zr-modified MCM-41 supports were prepared using the procedure in the same report . Aluminum (III) isopropoxide or zirconium (IV) propoxide was dispersed in an isopropanol solution at about 70 °C. After that, TEOS was added to a dry ethanol solution. The TEOS solution was added to solution containing Al- or Zr-ions and kept under magnetic stirring during 5 h in reflux. The obtained solution was added dropwise to the micellar solution, as previously described it. The mixture was aged at room temperature for 24 h without stirring, filtered, washed, dried, pulverized and calcined at 550 °C for 8 h. The molar gel composition and nominal Si/M ratios are also shown in Table 1.
Supported vanadium catalysts with 5 wt% V were prepared by impregnation using an excess volume of ammonium metavanadate aqueous solution. The obtained suspensions were treated under reduced pressure using rotary-evaporation equipment at 60 °C and 60 rpm until complete solvent removal. The solid was dried at room temperature and calcined at 500 °C for 4 h.
The supports were denoted as M (MCM-41), AlMx (Al-MCM-41x, where x = Si/Al = 70 or 30) and ZrMy (Zr-MCM-41y, where y = Si/Zr = 40 or 20), while the catalysts were denoted as VM, VAlMx and VZrMy, where the V-containing catalysts presented a V nominal content of 5 wt%.
The textural analysis was carried out using a Micromeritics-ASAP 2010 automatic analyzer at liquid N2 temperature. The solids were previously degassed overnight under vacuum at 60 °C. The micrographs and elemental composition were obtained using a scanning electron microscope model FEI Quanta 250 coupled to an energy-dispersive X-ray analyzer EDAX model Octane SDD. Small-angle X-ray diffraction (SA-XRD) patterns were obtained using a Siemens D5005 diffractometer with CuKα radiation and step rate of 0.025°/s. Ultraviolet–visible diffuse reflectance spectra (UV–vis DRS) were recorded using a Perkin Elmer Lambda 35 spectrophotometer. The measurements were done using BaSO4 as standard.
The thiophene HDS reactions were carried out in a fixed-bed Pyrex® reactor with 250 mg of catalyst at 350 °C, atmospheric pressure and a volumetric flow of 100 mL/min (2.27 mol % thiophene in H2). Prior to reaction, the mesoporous catalysts were activated in situ under a flow of 100 mL/min (1.00 vol. % CS2 in H2) for 2 h at 350 °C. The reaction products were analyzed using a gas chromatograph equipped with a FID, with sampling of the gas effluent for analysis at 12 min intervals. The stabilization (or steady state catalytic activities) was obtained when four consecutive measurements gave the same conversion (~ 2 h). The catalytic activity is reported as pseudo-first-order rate constant for thiophene disappearance in units of milimoles of thiophene converted to products per gram of catalyst per minute. Generally, the reproducibility was better than 10%.
Nitrogen physisorption isotherms of the synthesized supports are presented in Fig. 1. The isotherm of pure silica MCM-41 corresponds to a Type-IV isotherm with a well-defined step at a relative pressure between 0.3 and 0.4, demonstrating the formation of a uniform mesoporous material. On the other hand, the isotherms of the modified supports were similar to that of the parent MCM-41, indicating that a mesoporous structure was obtained after Al- and Zr-incorporation. The modified supports also presented smaller overall amount of adsorbed N2 and an additional Type-H3 hysteresis loop. This can be ascribed to the increase in the materials' density due to structural incorporation of metal species. Furthermore, the existence of such a hysteresis loop might indicate that some structural defects are formed in the hexagonal channels matrix. The N2 physisorption isotherms of their respective mesoporous catalysts presented similar forms (not shown).
The supports showed high specific surface areas; these values are close to or slightly higher than 1000 m2/g (see Table 2). Vanadium impregnation resulted in a decrease of specific surface area and a decrease of pore volume, which becomes more pronounced in materials containing zirconium. These results suggest the presence of some metal species covering the structure of the MCM-41 that can cause pore plugging. On the other hand, the MCM-41 showed a narrow distribution of pore sizes, indicating uniformity in the size of pores (Fig. 1b). The modified supports presented a bimodal distribution of pore sizes, with pore sizes prevailing around 30 Å. According to the literature, these results show that there is a decrease in the hexagonal-type mesopores arrays density, due to the development of a new family of extra-structural pores of size above 40 Å, which can be generated by the presence of small metal oxide crystals dispersed in the matrix of MCM-41 .
The textural properties of the mesoporous catalysts are also shown in Table 2. A significant decrease in the specific surface area and pore volume were also observed. This decrease could be due to pore blocking by metal species plus a dilution effect of the support by the supported species [9, 10]. The supported vanadium catalysts with lower Si/M ratios showed better textural properties compared to higher Si/M ones. These tendencies could be indicative that the dispersion of vanadium species was favored on modified supports with lower Si/M ratios.
The chemical compositions (Table 2), presented as Si/M atomic ratios (M = Al or Zr), of selected mesoporous supports were obtained by SEM–EDX. SEM micrographs and their respective EDX spectra for the AlM70 and ZrM20 supports showed some spherical particles that are formed by Si, O and Al (or Zr), as it is shown in top and bottom of Fig. 2a and b, respectively. It was also found that the experimental Si/Zr ratios are close to the nominal values. On the contrary, such closeness was not observed for Al modified-supports. The differences observed can be associated to the solubility of the precursors; the Zr-precursor is more soluble than the Al one, suggesting that some Al atoms could precipitate on the support surface forming Al rich-aggregates. On the other hand, the modified supports, prepared from TEOS in alcoholic medium, showed spherical morphology, while the MCM-41 obtained from fumed silica resulted in irregularly shaped particles (not shown). Thus, it can be said that the silica spheres are obtained from the hydrolysis of tetraalkoxysilanes in a mixture of low-boiling alcohols, as previously reported .
The well-ordered mesoporous structure of MCM-41 was also confirmed from its SA-XRD pattern (Fig. 3). The unmodified support exhibited a relatively intense reflection at 2.3°(2θ) and two weaker signals between 3 and 5°(2θ) assigned, respectively, to (100), (110) and (200) planes, characteristic of a hexagonal structure [12, 13]. The Al- and Zr-incorporation produced a decrease of the intensity of (100) plane and an incomplete disappearance of (110)- and (200)-reflections. These results can be attributed to distortions in the hexagonal structure due to the isomorphic substitution of Si atoms by Al (or Zr) ones. It can be also seen a shift of (100)-reflection towards lower 2θ values for the Al-modified supports, indicating an expansion of the structure, confirmed by the increment of pore wall thickness, lattice parameter and interplanar distance, as it can be seen in Table 2. Several authors have reported that the increased wall thickness is a strong evidence of metal incorporation into the MCM-41 framework [17, 18, 24]. On the contrary, Zr-containing materials showed a different behavior; the (100)-reflection was shifted to higher 2θ values with increasing Zr content. It was also observed a decrease of the structural parameters, in the material with higher Zr content. These results could indicate that at low Si/Zr ratios, Zr atoms prefer to form extra-framework type species instead of replacing the Si atoms; the UV–vis DRS results confirm it (see below). According to the results, it can be inferred that there are different Si/M ratios to obtain materials with optimal parameters, which has been related to thermal stability of these materials .
UV–vis DRS is a sensitive technique to study metal coordination, for Al- and Zr-incorporated in zeolites or MCM-41 structures [26, 27, 28] or supported vanadium catalysts [29, 30]. The DR spectra of Al-containing samples presented an intense band at 240 nm (not shown), which increases with Al-content and can be attributed to ligand–metal charge transfer (LMCT) O2− to Al3+ in Al atoms with tetrahedral coordination. However, some authors have also reported that Al-framework species can be characterized by the presence of a band at 220 nm . It is possible that the broad band at 240 nm in the spectra involves both Al framework and other types of aluminum species with different states of coordination. It was also observed a small contribution of Al atoms with octahedral coordination by a low intensity broad band centered at 280 nm , formed by surface metal migration. On the other hand, Zr-containing samples presented a single band at 240 nm, which increases with Zr content. Some researchers have suggested that LMCT around 220 nm are probably due to the presence of tetrahedral Zr(IV) species [31, 32, 33]. The adsorption bands above 240 nm have been assigned to the LMCT O2− to Zr4+, with Zr in low coordination state, either isolated or in small ZrxOy nanoclusters inside the silica framework [31, 34, 35]. The DRS and SA-XRD results confirm the presence of ZrxOy nanoclusters partially covering the modified-support; however, these ZrxOy nanoclusters were not detected by wide angle XRD (WA-XRD, not shown), indicating highly dispersed species.
It is well known that V5+ at tetrahedral coordination sites absorbs between 240 and 350 nm, at square pyramidal coordination between 350 and 450 nm and at octahedral coordination between 450 and 600 nm [36, 37]. The broad band centered at 260 nm (Fig. 4) is due to the presence of isolated tetrahedral V5+ species that possess the ability of coordinatively bind to H2O molecules from the atmosphere, resulting in color changes in the solids and broadened bands in the DR spectra ; the widening of this band may also be due to the contribution of the heteroatoms (Al or Zr). Furthermore, it was also observed a broad band centered at 430 nm, which can be assigned to V5+ species with square pyramidal coordination. However, the widening of this band could be indicating the presence of polymeric chains and even small V2O5 crystallites [30, 36]. It should be noted that V2O5 was not detected by WA-XRD (not shown), which means that the VOx species are highly dispersed.
The experimental results reflected the presence of different V5+ species which could depend on the nature of the mesoporous supports (see Scheme 1). Small V2O5 nanoclusters could predominate when the V is supported on the unmodified MCM-41 (Scheme 1a), while isolated tetrahedral or polymeric chains of V5+ oxides could be predominating when V is supported on the Al-MCM-41 (Scheme 1b) or Zr-MCM-41 (Scheme 1c), respectively.
The catalytic activities in the steady state of the sulfided catalysts are presented in Fig. 5a. In this figure, it can be seen that the sulfided catalyst supported on AlM30 (denoted as VAlM30) exhibited the highest catalytic activity. This behavior may be explained because VAlM30 catalyst showed better textural properties (specific surface area and pore volume) as compared to the other catalysts (see values in Table 2). On the other hand, it is well known that Al-incorporation into MCM-41-framework provides increased number of (and stronger) acid sites, when it is compared with unmodified support, allowing a better dispersion of the V species . It is possible that, in the VAlM30 catalyst, an adequate number of active sites have been generated to disperse efficiently vanadium species, which is reflected in the catalytic performance of this catalyst. The VAlM30 catalyst was analyzed by SEM–EDX after presulfidation (Fig. 2c) and its elemental analysis (bottom Fig. 2c) revealed the presence, as it was expected, of Si, Al and O, as well as V and S, indicating the possible existence of a sulfided phase of vanadium. Although the unsupported catalyst presented V2O5 characteristic signals even after the presulfidation step (result not shown), it also showed an intense signal at 44.1°(2θ) that could be assigned to any one of a family of vanadium sulfides of the VxSy type. The observed diffraction signal indicates that the V-based catalysts, under presulfidation conditions, could become partially sulfurized to VxSy phases, which are probably responsible for the observed catalytic activity.
The catalytic activity did not appear to be positively influenced by Zr-modification, as both Zr-modified catalysts showed lower performance than unmodified catalyst, even the VZrM20 catalyst which has shown a high dispersion of V species. This is possibly caused by their low pore volume that can result in pore plugging. It has been reported that the Zr-containing MCM-41 materials have a total acidity comparable to zeolites and, even higher than Al-modified MCM-41 . However, as the Zr4+ ions are unable to incorporate additional hydroxyl groups, those materials have very low acidity of the Brönsted type, which could explain the low catalytic activity. It is probable that the Lewis acid sites are not appropriate to effectively disperse the V species.
The thiophene HDS reaction follows two main pathways, as can be seen in Scheme 2 : (1) direct thiophene hydrogenation (denoted as HYD route) leading to tetrahydrothiophene (THT) and, (2) direct C-S scission (denoted as DDS route) to form 1,3-butadiene (BD). Both THT and BD are transient intermediaries that could or could not be present in the final products. 1-butene (BE), cis- (cBE) and trans-2-butene (tBE) are the subsequent products that may eventually be hydrogenated to form butane (BA).
The selectivities of all V-based catalysts (Fig. 5b) were expressed as the formation of the DDS product (BD) and the sum of all formed hydrogenated products (BE + cBE + tBE + BA), because the main product of the HYD route (THTH) was not observed. It can be inferred that the evaluated reaction followed exclusively the DDS route. Despite this, it can also be noted that all V-based catalysts showed comparatively high yields of hydrogenated products. Both VAlM70 and VAlM30 catalysts showed lower yield of BD in the final products. These results could be indicative that Al-modified catalysts possess higher hydrogenation capacity compared to unmodified and Zr-modified catalysts. The hydrogenation properties of un-supported vanadium sulfides have already been discussed in the literature . Vanadium sulfides at low H2 pressures promote the DDS route, while under high H2 pressures the HYD route is preferred . Additional studies are required to fully characterize the acidity properties and better understand the observed catalytic behavior; however, the obtained results showed that vanadium sulfides supported on Al-containing MCM-41 could be evaluated for HDS tests using other model molecules, such as dibenzothiophene (DBT), 4-methyldibenzothiophene (MDBT) and 4,6-dimethyldibenzothiophene (DMDBT), which require a previous hydrogenation of the aromatic ring, followed by the removal of the sulfur atom.
The preparation, characterization and thiophene HDS tests of some vanadium mesoporous catalysts supported on unmodified and Al- or Zr-modified MCM-41 have been presented. All mesoporous supports showed high specific surface areas and well-defined porous structure. Al-containing MCM-41 materials showed mainly Al-framework and a little contribution of Al extra-framework, while Zr modification promoted the formation of ZrxOy type species. Vanadium oxides species supported on modified materials have also been obtained. However, the dispersion of those vanadium species depended of the support nature and was favored on modified supports with lower Si/M ratios. The catalytic test revealed that the VAlM30 catalyst showed highest thiophene conversion that was associated to its good textural and structural properties and the high V dispersion, which in turn leads to a greater dispersion of the sulfided metal species. Aluminosilicates-supported vanadium catalysts showed higher formation of the hydrogenated products. Thus, it is considered that Al-MCM-41-supported V sulfides catalysts could be promising candidates for deep HDS, where it is required new materials with good hydrogenating properties.
The authors would like to acknowledge financial support from Fondo Nacional de Ciencia, Tecnología e Innovación (FONACIT) through G-2000001537 project. The authors also thank Laboratorio Nacional de Difracción de Rayos X (LAB-97000821 project) from ULA and Laboratorio de Fotoquímica and Unidad de Microscopía from IVIC for their technical assistances in the SA-XRD, UV–vis DRS and SEM–EDX analysis.


We set aside one Sunday a year and ask our entire congregation to serve in an activity that will benefit our local and global communities. It is a day of worship, service, fellowship and celebration of all that God has given us.
Faith-In-Action reminds us that we are the hands and feet of Jesus to the "least, last, and lost" in our communities. It is a yearly reminder that Jesus, the greatest servant of all, gave His life for us and calls us to share His love and grace through service to others. Our goal is to allow everyone in the congregation an opportunity to serve and inspire people to serve together year-round. This year there will be 9 different "hands-on" team activities you can choose from and 3 FIA Support Teams. Almost all activities are suitable for children with the exception of the set up and take down teams.
For more information please contact a member of the Faith-In-Action Team.


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text:
Q: Mosfet Amplifier Problem I'm currently working on a problem that wants me to obtain a gain of 500 using a mix of CG CS CD or cascode amplifiers or just a single topology. The Vout will be powering a resistive load of 50 ohms. I need a step in the right direction on what topology to use.
VDD  = 3v
VDSTAT = 0.25V
AV = 500
Update::::
So I have only been able to obtain a gain of 400 and cant get much more. Any ideas on where im going wrong. Here is my HSPICE Simulation. max length and width of the mosfets is 10um and min is 0.15um.
Vdd 2 0 DC 3
Vb 3 0 DC 1.75
Vin 5 0 DC 1.25

X1 1 5 0 0 nmos_ee435 width=4u length=10u
X2 1 3 2 2 pmos_ee435 width=8u length=10u

.SUBCKT nmos_ee435 d g s b width=4u length=10u
M1 d g s b nmos_internal W='width' L='length'
+ AD='width*2e-6' AS='width*2e-6' PD='4e-6+width' PS='4e-6+width'
.MODEL nmos_internal NMOS LEVEL=1 uo=400 vto=1 lambda='1e-6/length*0.1'
+ tox=6.903n gamma=1 phi=0.6 cgdo=0.5n cgso=0.5n cj=0.001 mj=0.5 pb=1
+ cjsw=0.1n mjsw=0.5 capop=0

.ENDS

.SUBCKT pmos_ee435 d g s b width=8u length=10u
M2 d g s b pmos_internal W='width' L='length'
+AD='width*2e-6' AS='width*2e-6' PD='4e-6+width' PS='4e-6+width'
.MODEL pmos_internal PMOS LEVEL=1 uo=200 vto=-1 lambda='1e-6/length*0.1'
+ tox=6.903n gamma=1 phi=0.6 cgdo=0.5n cgso=0.5n cj=0.001 mj=0.5 pb=1
+ cjsw=0.1n mjsw=0.5 capop=0

.ENDS

.OP

.tf V(1) Vin

.END

A: I will advice you to use 2 stages.
First stage should be CS amplifier and the output will be the input for a CD amplifier which will operate like a buffer.
So, the first stage will give you very high gain(maybe if you design with active loads and properly values for W/L) and then the CD has the ability to give you the same gain(usually a little smaller) for every load you connect.

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


text:
Q: Ideal upload speed limit with Azure REST API's through Worker Role I would like to know is there ideal upload speed limit while upload to blob through Azure REST API's..Having 2 medium instance of worker role
For 700MB,i am uploading it by spilting into chunks and calling CloudBlockBlob.PutBlock and PutBlockList.How would be ideal time to upload and how to increase the performance.
Thanks,
Vivek

A: The performance among other things would depend on

*

*Number of blocks you're uploading concurrently.

*Block size.

*Bandwidth available to you.

*If or not your worker role and the storage account are not in the same data center/affinity group.

Take a look at this link: http://msdn.microsoft.com/en-us/library/windowsazure/ee814754.aspx
What it tells you is that for a "Small" sized VM, you get 100Mbps bandwidth. Ideally if uploading blob in blob storage is the only thing your worker role is doing, I would code the application in such a way that I can make maximum use of this bandwidth available to me.
Hope this helps.


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text:
Insurers Embrace the Concept of Change Management
Robert Regis Hyle | Tuesday, October 28, 2014
Robert Regis Hyle
Insurance projects get bigger as cycle times grow longer and carriers are forced to spend huge amounts of money on transformation. That means there`s a need to get results and E&Y`s Charlie Mihaliak has learned that insurance executives need to press to make sure the issues and risks that change management addresses are accounted for in these transformation projects.
Mihaliak, executive director leading the organization change management practice for insurance operations at E&Y, explains that in order to define change management insurers must start with the business outcome they expect to address: predictability of the business results. A second benefit involves sustainability.
"With a lot of focus and energy, you can pump up results," says Mihaliak. "When you decide what needs to be done to achieve those goals you get into the whole leadership space: clarity of what they try to achieve; how to do it in a language business people understand; alignment with the different leaders that have to sponsor the transformation so they have the same goals and priorities; and reprioritize other issues for the greater good of the transformation."
Transformation is comprehensive at Westfield Insurance, according to Robert Bowers, national claims strategy leader for Westfield. Changes included substantial process changes, reorganization of the carrier`s claims department to meet strategic objectives, and substantial technology deployments to meet enable those objectives to be met.
"For such a large initiative, and something much larger than we had ever subjected our staff to, it was important to have a strong change management plan to ensure the adoption and the acceptance of not only a new claims system, but new processes and procedures for the claims staff," says Kerri Weaver, a leader in claims communication and change management at Westfield.
Westfield is in the midst of concluding tests on a suite of technology with the core solution being the claims management system it acquired from Guidewire, according to Bowers. In addition, the carrier has other technology to be integrated into that core, such as a payment system, and an electronic claims form.
"In all we have about a dozen major projects that together will integrate with this claims management system," he says. "We are in the final testing and anticipate we will have it fully deployed in the field by the end of the year."
To do this correctly, Westfield put together a strong change agent team scattered across the carrier`s operating territory, explains Weaver, with two or three individuals in each service office to provide feedback and gauge change readiness.
Those representatives will receive early training to support the deployment of the claims system. With over 30 service offices, Westfield also reaches out to discuss updates on the claims strategy. Weaver add that the company has a hands-on demo and exercise that enables leaders and change agents to get on the system and get a first-hand view of what the system will be like.
New Alignment
Organizational alignment is a major part of change management, points out Mihaliak. The roles employees take, the workflow, the procedures, and the measurements are all things that influence behavior.
"Business unit readiness has to be there on day one," he says. "Make sure the technology is in place, training, and sustainability action, which is the performance management process to sustain behavior."
Anthony Tempesta, senior manager, advisory services for E&Y, believes the insurance industry has gone through an unprecedented change and transformation is no longer an ugly word for carriers.
"Companies are making investments; they are swapping out legacy platforms and that new technology brings a lot of change," says Tempesta. "It`s not just plug in the software and use it; it`s changing organizational structure, how people respond to clients, and how they work with each other. Customers want things faster and better with a higher level of self-service. Change management is imbedding that capability—that disciplined approach—within the organization."
The old Westfield operational model was geographic, explains Weaver, with three operating territories. This was changed to a line of business model for the carrier`s three lines of business: casualty, property, and workers` compensation. Weaver points out things have changed significantly for the staff.
Prior to the operational change, Westfield representatives went to different service offices to gather pain points from the staff and what they would like to see in the planned technology upgrade.
"We tried to gauge their awareness of the need for change and then their desire to change," says Weaver.
Operating with a geographic model meant there was a lack of consistency in how tasks were performed at different offices. With the new complexities of insurance, Weaver points out the carrier felt it was important to focus on the functional line of business.
"The lines of business we were writing and the expertise for those lines has been changing over the last decade," says Bowers. "That contributed to the need for changes, plus the complexity within the lines of business."
Tempesta acknowledges new technology platforms call for better communications and training. Those remain important factors, but within change management an additional priority involves embedding a disciplined approach that drives how the business engages with employees, customers, and stakeholders to ensure what the business users perform their tasks in a manner the change management team perceives to be the correct way.
Changing Processes
Process management is important for carriers using new software solutions, but Mihaliak points out companies have different views on how to integrate process management discipline into the change management program.
"In some places, carriers feel like that`s part of the change management scope, but in other areas they have spun out lean development groups or Six Sigma," he says. "What`s important is companies need to be sure they get a strong level of integration within the program. I know that sounds obvious, but when you are trying to compile skills to run a program it is a challenge. You have to make sure you have experienced program leaders familiar with all these disciplines so they can pull it together to work more effectively."
Tempesta adds that if an insurer is undergoes an organizational change or plugs in a new operating system, the project touches multiple several areas and process management is just one of them.
"Whether that falls into the official change management workspace, that`s fine, but you are going to touch processes anytime you implement new technology and that needs to be addressed," he says.
Bowers reports there were two directions Westfield took with process changes. The first involved the insurer`s overall strategy and how that strategy related to the new claims solution.
"We spent significant time with our senior executives to work through how we wanted the capabilities to be put in place and the processes necessary to support them," he says.
The second focus involved a process study that was completed before the new claims system was put in place to identify some of the pain points in its processes. Bowers points out this involved dozens of substantial changes for each line of business.
"Some of the technology could improve the processes and we continue to tweak them," he says.
Buy Into Change
Mihaliak maintains it is rare to find a business leader that won`t agree on the importance of change management. The question these leaders face, though, is: How do they go about making sure the changes are applied in the correct manner?
"In a world with so many resources, the first assumption a leader makes is there is a middle management layer that can be relied upon to make the changes," he says. "A few years ago that was more of a possibility. Operations jobs are getting harder and to think operations managers will have time to bring their teams through that is not working as frequently as it once did. When there is a major transformation program, you need a change management strategy up front that allows you to proactively manage things."
Change management doesn`t happen in a silo, points out Tempesta. What he calls the "change army" includes business leaders and stakeholders armed with new tools and techniques. They are the ones who have to sell the changes and empower others to make things happen.
"Change comes from the top down and it will be hard to find a leader who doesn`t think change management is a critical path, but being a good people manager is not the same as being a good change manager," says Tempesta. "You may have to transition people and that`s a combination of human resources and business leaders. It`s complex work. The essential core of change discipline is the need to prepare business leaders to execute on the change plan."
Mihaliak believes IT leaders are involved in change management even if it is not always apparent. One example of this involves the increased value carriers place on their data.
"One of the issues with data programs is the change management needs are not attended to. Things like the establishment of a governance process across the organization in addition to the adoption of new tools," he says. "Something that might be perceived as technology-driven has change management needs. As CIOs collaborate more with the business units, they assume the trusted partner relationship that they aspire to, the ability to engage their peers around leading practices of change management, and to be the coach to help elevate that trusted advisor role."
Weaver recognizes culture change is a significant challenge for carriers. In Westfield`s case, employees went through organizational changes as well as process changes.
"To keep the employees well informed has been important as well as to listen to them, understand their concerns, look forward to the way the industry will move, and why changes need to be made," she says.
Bowers believe process changes were well received and people understood the need for consistency, accuracy, and simplicity. Organization changes, however, were more difficult as most employees express two major questions: What is my job? Who do I report to?
"We had to make difficult choices on when we were going to make the changes," says Bowers. "We met with the executive leaders and advised them of the changes, but we also had to make a tough choice: Do we make the organizational changes before the technology deployment?"
The technology was going to support the organizational changes, and doing the organizational changes before the technology deployment would mean there were workarounds and additional work, according to Bowers.
"We decided it was best to make the organizational changes as soon as we could," he says. "We made those changes about a year ago so people have been without the technology to support those changes. It`s worked, but there have been some bumps."
Bowers feels the technology changes will be easier to deal with because the previous claims system was approximately 25-years-old and was homegrown.
"People who joined us from other carriers had to take a step back from the technology," he says. "Our road shows helped build excitement around the technology and the desire has been strong to put the system into place."
Mihaliak reports more companies seek to create a strong center of excellence and the next wave of emergence is around change. Tempesta adds there has been an uptick in the way insurance companies approach transformational change—such as multi-year policy administration projects.
"Companies aren`t comfortable with such an investment if they don`t have a guarantee of success and that`s why change management is on the table," says Tempesta.
"The cycle time of these projects, is important," adds Mihaliak. "When you develop a new system like policy administration, these programs take a couple of years or more, so if you miss and end up without the outcome you desire, that puts the company that much further behind their competitors who got it right the first time. If carriers are going to spend this much money they have to get some return on it."
Westfield tried to communicate to everyone from the start that change management evolves and is not the end to anything. Bowers realizes there will be continual changes both with regards to where the business grows and with how the newer, more flexible technology responds much quicker than in the past.
"We`ll continue to invest in our technology, we`ll continue to make tweaks to our organization, and we`ll continue to work on best practices," says Bowers. "We have people established within the organization to undertake that continuous improvement."
Robert Regis Hyle is editor-in-chief of the Insurance Technology Association
ALSO IN Change Management/Process management
The Impact of New Software on Change Management
Crawford Thrives on Change to Deliver Value

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Eliot Gattegno
Hailed by Fanfare Magazine as a "hugely sensitive musician" and The Boston Globe as "having superior chops backed up by assured musicianship," Eliot Gattegno is the only saxophonist and one of the few Americans to ever win the "Kranichsteiner Musikpreis," widely considered the most prestigious prize for the interpretation of new music.
He also is the winner of the Tourjee Alumni Award and the John Cage Award from the New England Conservatory, the Fine Arts Award from Interlochen Arts Academy, and after a series of events including concertos, recitals, and lectures earned an special citation for cultural exchange and artistic excellence from the Brazilian Government. As winner of the Boston Modern Orchestra Project concerto competition, he performed and recorded Elliott Schwartz's Chamber Concerto IV for a release on BMOP/Sound. These performances led the esteemed The Boston Globe music critic Richard Dyer to announce, "there is no question the future of his instrument is in safe hands."
His recent recital appearances include Carnegie Hall's Weill Recital Hall, Merkin Concert Hall, Miller Theatre, Aichi Arts Center Concert Hall in Nagoya, Japan, and Zipper Concert Hall in Los Angeles on the Monday Evening Concerts. As an orchestral and chamber musician he has worked with James Levine, Michael Tilson Thomas, and Kurt Masur at festivals such as Tanglewood, Yellow Barn, Shanghai, Prague, and Spoleto USA.
A leading force in contemporary music, he has premiered and commissioned hundreds of compositions and has given American premieres of works by Luciano Berio, Pascal Dusapin and Morton Feldman. He has also founded several ensembles dedicated to the promotion and development of new works, including Second Instrumental Unit with David Fulmer and The Kenners with Eric Wubbels. Recently, he was appointed the Associate Director as well as saxophone soloist for Ensemble Sospeso in New York City.
In addition to his performing career, Mr Gattegno is a sought-after lecturer, teacher and chamber music coach. He is a former Artist-in-Residence at Harvard University and has presented guest lectures at the University of California, Berkeley; Columbia University; Princeton University; Stanford University; Shanghai Conservatory; and the Juilliard School. Most of these lectures present materials to act in his forthcoming series of books and Web site on contemporary instrumental pedagogy and techniques. He also serves as Executive Director of World-Wide Concurrent Premiers and Commissioning Fund, Inc. – an organization dedicated to commissioning emerging and Pulitzer Prize winning composers alike.
Mr. Gattegno holds a Doctorate from the University of California, San Diego, a Master and Bachelor of Music degree from New England Conservatory, and a diploma from Interlochen Arts Academy. His principal teachers include Kenneth Radnofsky, Steven Schick, Marcus Weiss, William Sears, Jean-Michel Goury, Arno Bornkamp, and Jean-Marie Londeix.
Mr. Gattegno is currently a Fellow at Harvard University and resides in New York City.


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Tavia Shackles Wiki, Age, Bio, Height, Husband, Career, and Net Worth
Tavia Shackles is a well-known beauty pageant winner. She has competed in several beauty pageants and won a few of them.
Wiki, Bio, Family, Siblings, Childhood & Education
Tavia Shackles's Age, Height, Weight, and Body Dimensions
Tavia Shackles's Profession & Career
Tavia Shackles's Husband, Marriage & Relationship
Tavia Shackles's Salary and Net Worth
Tavia Shackles's Social Media(Facebook, Twitter, Instagram)
Tavia Shackles was born on August 1, 1971, and she is 51 years old. She is from Lee's Summit, Missouri, in the United States. Similarly, her full name is Tavia Michelle Shackles, but she is also known as Tavia Shackles Hunt.
Her parents are her father, David Shackles, and her mother, Ramona Lakin Shackles. Her educational background includes graduation from Lee's Summit High School and a degree in Political Science from the University of Missouri Extension.
Tavia Shackles stands approximately 5 feet 6 inches or 168 cm tall and weighs approximately 60 kgs or 132 lbs. Furthermore, her chest-waist-hip body measurements are 34-25-35 inches. Her hair is blonde, and her eyes are hazel.
Tavia Shackles
Shackles is a professional American Pageant Queen. Miss Lee's Summit and Miss Missouri Teen USA are among the titles she has held. She has also taken part in the Miss Teen USA pageant. She did, however, make it to the top 12 but did not win the title.
At the time, the winner was Oregon Bridgette Wilson, a well-known film actress. She also won the title of Miss Kansas in 1993, when she was only 22 years old. She finished as the second runner-up in Miss USA, while Kenya Moore won the title. Kenya Moore is a well-known Real Housewives of Beverly Hills actress.
Aside from her fame in beauty pageants, she is also known as Clark Hunt's celebrity wife. Clark is a co-owner, chairman, and CEO of the Kansas City Chiefs of the National Football League (NFL). Clark is also a Major League Soccer founding investor-owner. In addition, her husband is the chairman of Hunt Sports Group. Clark Hunt oversees the operations of FC Dallas and, formerly, the Columbus Crew of Major League Soccer.
She also works with her husband on the Kansas City Chiefs football team. She is also the Director of the Chiefs' Women's Organization. Tavia Shackles also coaches the team's female cheerleaders. She also organizes various fashion shows in the United States.
Tavia Shackles has a husband. Clark Hunt is her husband, and they married on October 23, 1993. Similarly, the couple has three children: Gracelyn, Ava, and Knobel Hunt. Knobel is an athlete, Gracelyn is a pageant competitor, and Ava is a gymnast and dancer. More specifically, she and Clark met while she was interning for the Kansas team. The lovers are six years apart, which means Clark is six years older than she is.
Moving on, her net worth is estimated to be around $1.3 million US dollars as of January 2023. Her husband, on the other hand, has a net worth of around $2 billion US dollars as of January 2023.
In terms of social media, Tavia Shackles can be found on Instagram under the handle @taviahunt. She has shared 633 posts and has over 34.6k followers while writing this biography. She also joined Twitter in March 2012, and her @taviahunt1 account currently has over 4.9k followers.
Sagittarius, Gemini, Aries
Beauty Pageant winner, Director of the Chiefs' Women's Organization, Mentor of the female Cheifs' cheerleaders team
Married Date
Clark Hunt
Lee's Summit, Missouri
University of Missouri Extension (Political Science)
David Shackles
Ramona Lakin Shackles
Three (Gracelyn, Ava, and Knobel Hunt)
Tavia Shackles Twitter
Tavia Shackles Instagram
Related tags : Beauty pageant winner Director of the Chiefs' Women Organization Mentor of the female Cheifs' cheerleaders team Tavia Shackles Age Tavia Shackles Career Tavia Shackles Height Tavia Shackles Income
Madison Reyes Wiki, Age, Bio, Height, Boyfriend, Career, and Net Worth
Lincoln Bell Shepard Wiki, Age, Bio, Height, Boyfriend, Career, and Net Worth


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Dorylomorpha yamagishii är en tvåvingeart som beskrevs av Morakote och Kôji Yano 1990. Dorylomorpha yamagishii ingår i släktet Dorylomorpha och familjen ögonflugor. Inga underarter finns listade i Catalogue of Life.

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EFF says media and public must allow law enforcement to investigate Gordhan
Pravin Gordhan at the Zondo commission (File, News24)
Firm that won R1bn Joburg fleet contract paid Malema-EFF 'slush fund'
FACT CHECKED: EFF's charges against Pravin Gordhan
Malema: I will stop inviting the media
The Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) has called on the public and the media to allow police to investigate allegations it has made against Public Enterprises Minister Pravin Gordhan.
The party laid charges of corruption, money laundering and fraud against the minister this week. It alleges that he has a bank account in Canada and that people were instructed to deposit money into it.
In a statement released on Thursday, the EFF said those who defend Gordhan would be exposed as "conflicted stooges and sycophants of a corrupt cabal".
"The EFF has given evidence to the police to corroborate the case we have opened against Pravin Gordhan; and have asked the police to give indemnity to people who were instructed to deposit money into the bank account in Canada. The EFF has further written to the Financial Intelligence Centre, to further assist with the investigations of Pravin Gordhan, his wife, daughter and all relatives.
"The reality is that there are people in South Africa who are willing to come and present further evidence to the police on payments to a Canadian account, and these are citizens that should be protected from victimisation," said the EFF.
However, on Wednesday, News24 reported that there were a number of errors in the EFF's statement to the police, as distributed to the media.
News24, in checking the stated facts in the statement, found that the bank account details given to police by Malema was seemingly wrong or made up.
It also appears Malema fingered the wrong Gordhan in his charges.
It was also established that Gordhan was unable to open a bank account unless he was a Canadian citizen or in the process of applying for residency status with that country's authorities. Gordhan does not hold dual or any other form of citizenship, besides South African citizenship.
On Tuesday, Gordhan laid crimen injuria and criminal defamation charges against Malema and his deputy, Floyd Shivambu.
The EFF said on Thursday that Gordhan must respond to all the parliamentary questions that the party has sent to him.
"There is no amount of media ganging up and distortions that will intimidate the EFF in its pursuit of a corrupt person, who has created a parallel state apparatus and believe that they're untouchable.
"The defenders of Pravin Gordhan's corruption will all be exposed as conflicted stooges and sycophants of a corrupt cabal. The EFF has pursued cases as such and lost, however we will not lose the case against Pravin Gordhan," the party said.
Read more on: eff | julius malema | pravin gordhan
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Can you walk into the kitchen, pull out a few items, and pull together a meal? A number of friends have commented at various points about how easily I cook without recipes. Partly, I can do so because I always stock some basic pantry items. Beyond simply having the carrots and rice in the pantry, you need the confidence to pull it together into a meal. Cooking without a recipe is a valuable skill to develop, as your pantry may not always match your recipes.
First, I like to use a basic formula as my "recipe." It's actually pretty close the what the USDA now recommends in their nutrition guidance (see above).
For maximum health, focus on whole grains, plenty of vegetables (orange and green), and lean protein topped off with good fats like avocado, olives, or nuts.
Second, I select the seasonings. A basic option is to keep a list of the seasonings and flavors of various cuisines. (My mother's copy of the Enchanted Broccoli Forest had a list in the back that was incredibly useful.) For example, for something Tex-mex I would combine garlic, onion, chili, cumin, oregano, and perhaps some cilantro. For Italian, I might use red wine or balsamic vinegar, garlic, and herbs like basil, oregano, or thyme. Vietmanese might be rice wine vinegar, fish sauce, lime, chili garlic sauce, cilantro, mint, or Vietnamese basil. The easiest way to select your cuisine is to think about 1) what you like; 2) what matches the foods you're about to cook.
Finally, I'll think about the technique. Do I want to steam, stir-fry, boil, roast, poach, or eat it raw? Do I want to combine techniques, like simmering beans to mix with raw vegetables? Again, it's fairly easy to go back to the classics from your cuisine of choice but don't let that limit your options. Almost anything can be a delightful soup, and stir-fries are fairly universal. Don't forget to think about the order of cooking, either! Be sure to add longer-cooking item to the pot, or those that hold better to raw mixtures, first.
Don't be afraid to taste as you go. It will help you season your food appropriately (remember, you can always add more later!), and know when to stop cooking. Just serve yourself a little less than you might otherwise, or else you won't have room for dessert!


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Filmografia

Regista

1916

 Und die Gerechtigkeit fand den Weg (1916)
 Die Vier Finger (1916)

1919

 Die Erbschaft von New York (1919)
 Sklaven des Kapitals (1919)

1920

 Eine Frauenschönheit unter dem Seziermesser, co-regia di Heinz Sarnow (1920)
 Das Geheimnis der Mitternachtsstunde (1920)
 Der Plan der Drei (1920)
 L'uomo in trappola (Der Mann in der Falle) (1920)
 Die Sklavenhalter von Kansas-City (1920)
 Nat Pinkerton im Kampf, 1. Teil - Das Ende des Artisten Bartolini (1920)
 Aapachenrache, 4. Teil - Der Affenmensch (1920)
 Der Unerkannte (1920)
 Rafaello - Das Rätsel von Kopenhagen 1 (1920)
 In den Goldfeldern von Nevada (1920)
 Der Spitzel (1920)
 Der schwarze Gast (1920)
 Der Schrecken der Millionäre (1920)
 Il manifesto verde (Das grüne Plakat) (1920)

1921

 Nat Pinkerton im Kampf, 2. Teil - Diebesfallen (1921)
 Großstadtmädels - 1. Teil (1921)
 Großstadtmädels, 2. Teil - Erlebnisse aus Berlin (1921)
 Il delitto di Walstreet (Verbrechen in der Wallstreet 13) (1921)
 Das Achtgroschenmädel, Teil 1 (1921)
 Das Achtgroschenmädel. Jagd auf Schurken. 2. Teil  (1921)
 Großstadtmädels - 3. Teil (1921)
 Hände hoch (1921)
 Kinder der Strasse (Kinder der Straße) (1921)
 Das Kind der Strasse, 2. Teil (1921)
 Razzia (1921)
 Die Hafenlore, 2. Teil
 Die Hafenlore, 1. Teil
 Die Brillantenmieze, 2. Teil
 Die Brillantenmieze, 1. Teil
 Die kleine Midinette
 Apachenrache, 3. Teil - Die verschwundene Million

1922

 Die Liebeslaube
 Brudermord
 Morast
 Schamlose Seelen oder Ein Mädchenhandel
 Bummellotte
 Der Heiratsschwindler
 Divankatzen
 Die Königin von Whitechapel
 Die Fürstin der Ozeanwerft

1923

 Die Frau aus dem Orient (1923)

1924

 Die Luftfahrt über den Ozean
 Das Herz der Lilian Thorland

1925

 Aschermittwoch (1925)
 Die Kleine aus der Konfektion
 Das alte Ballhaus - 2. Teil
 Das alte Ballhaus - 1. Teil
 Volk in Not

1926

 Herbstmanöver (1926)
 Wie bleibe ich jung und schön - Ehegeheimnisse

1927

 Deutsche Frauen - Deutsche Treue
 Der Kavalier vom Wedding
 Zirkus Renz
 Die Lorelei
 Ich war zu Heidelberg Student
 Die Hafenbraut
 Es steht ein Wirtshaus an der Lahn
 Das Mädchen aus Frisco
 Wien, Wien - Nur du allein

1928

 Wer das Scheiden hat erfunden (1928)
 Das Hannerl von Rolandsbogen (1928)

1929

 Morgenröte, co-regia di Burton George (1929)

1930

 Ratten der Grosstadt (1930)
 Sturm auf drei Herzen (1930)

Attore
 Die Czernowska, regia di Charles Decroix (1913)
 Brutal, regia di Charles Decroix (1913)
 Der Fleck, regia di Charles Decroix (1914)
 Der Fall Hoop, regia di William Kahn (1916)
 Die Vier Finger, regia di Wolfgang Neff (1916)
 Wehrlose Opfer, regia di Richard Eichberg (1919)
 Die andere Welt, regia di Lorenz Bätz (1920)

Collegamenti esterni

  Early Cinema


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European wars, famine, and plagues driven by changing climates
Social disturbances in preindustrial Europe have been ascribed to a variety of …
Allie Wilkinson - Oct 12, 2011 2:28 pm UTC
The Thirty Years War was especially deadly.
Photograph by cuny.edu
Economic chaos, famine, disease, and war may all be attributed to climate change, according to a recent study. Through advances in paleoclimatology, researchers used temperature data and climate-driven economic variables to simulate the climate that prevailed during golden and dark ages in Europe and the Northern Hemisphere from 1500-1800 AD. In doing so, they discovered a set of casual linkages between climate change and human crisis. They noted that social disturbance, societal collapse and population collapse often coincided with significant climate change in America, the Middle East, China, and many other countries in preindustrial times, suggesting that climate change was the ultimate cause of human crisis in many preindustrial societies.
The General Crisis of the 17th Century in Europe was marked by widespread economic distress, social unrest, and population decline. A significant cause of mankind's woes during these times was the climate-induced shrinkage of agricultural production. Bioproductivity, agricultural production, and food supply per capita all showed immediate responses to changes in temperature. In the five to 30 years following these changes, there were also responses in terms of social disturbance, war, migration, nutritional status, epidemics, and famine.
Cooling during the Cold Phase (1560-1660 AD) reduced crop yields by shortening the growing season and shrinking the cultivated land area. Although agricultural production decreased or became stagnant in a cold climate, population size still grew, leading to an increase in grain price and an increased demand on food supplies. Inflating grain prices led to hardships for many, and triggered social problems and conflicts such as rebellions, revolutions, and political reforms.
Many of these disturbances led to armed conflicts, and the number of wars increased 41 percent during the Cold Phase. During the latter portion of the Cold Phase, the number of wars decreased, but the wars lasted longer and were far more lethal—most notable was the Thirty Years War (1618-1648), where fatalities were more than 12 times of the conflicts between 1500-1619.
Famine became more frequent too. Nutrition deteriorated, and the average height of Europeans shrunk 2cm by the late 16th century. As temperatures began to rise again after 1650, so did the average height.
The economic chaos, famine, and war led people to emigrate, and Europe saw peak migration overlapping the time of peak social disturbance. This widespread migration, in conjunction with declining health caused by poor nutrition, facilitated the spread of epidemics, and the number of plagues peaked during 1550-1670, reaching the highest level during the study period. As a result of war fatalities and famine, the annual population growth rate dropped dramatically, eventually leading to population collapse.
In the 18th century, the mild climate improved matters considerably, leading to the speedy recovery of both Europe's economy and population.
The alternation between periods of harmony and crisis, golden ages and dark ages, closely followed variations in the food supply per capita. Consequently, grain price could be used as an indicator of crisis in preindustrial Europe. Although grain price is dictated by agricultural production and population size, analysis by the researchers shows that temperature change was the real cause behind the grain price, since agricultural production was climate-dependent at the time.
The history of golden and dark ages in Europe is often attributed to sociopolitical factors, which fails to explain the co-occurrence of long-term crises in different countries, at different stages of development, and across different climate zones. Instead, the authors make a compelling case that climate change is the culprit, thanks to a climate-driven economic downturn due to a decreasing food supply. Where there is a shrinking food supply, chaos and misery follow.
PNAS, 2011, DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1104268108
Allie Wilkinson Allie is a freelance contributor to Ars Technica. She received a B.A. in Environmental Studies from Eckerd College and a Certificate in Conservation Biology from Columbia University's Earth Institute Center for Environmental Sustainability.
Twitter @loveofscience
subl33t Seniorius Lurkius
"Where there is a shrinking food supply, chaos and misery follow."
And a longer growing season + more plant food means a growing food supply.
Isn't everone tired of the AGW fear-mongering yet?
9 posts | registered Oct 12, 2011
failsavedcan Wise, Aged Ars Veteran
I didn't know people still used the term "dark ages." Hasn't it been recently discovered (in the past 10-20 years) that much of the perceived notions (lack of innovation in the fields of medicine, technology, art, etc.) of "the dark ages" were false and that there were significant discoveries during those time periods.
subl33t wrote:
IMO it's not fear-mongering if it's true. The climate change which this study concentrates on is not AGW -- it's the natural changing of the climate that the earth goes through.
PanzerWatts Ars Scholae Palatinae
I think his point is that generally most of the 'bad' agricultural periods were caused by relatively cold weather and that AGW is warming and thus good for crop production.
Gilgamesh417 Seniorius Lurkius
You know, that's an incredibly simplistic view. There is a lot of debate in the scientific community about the consequences of AGW and what humanity could do to stop what we've started. The worst case scenario bandied about is loss of coastal and river areas due to flooding which causes mass migrations (which contributes to crowding) and drops in agricultural output (since lots of farm regions border rivers due to easy access to water). Additionally, don't forget prolonged droughts (already seen in Africa and Texas) in regions where the climate is already traditionally very warm. That's the WORST case scenario - massive social upheaval and a tremendous increase in competition for resources which, no doubt, will cost trillions of dollars in capital and human lives. No scientist is guaranteeing this will happen but it certainly should be factored into policy making, don't you think? Scientists traditionally err on the side of caution because when we don't, we're held responsible for some reason (look at the scientists put on trial in Italy for failing to do the impossible and accurately predict an earthquake). Additionally, scientists have modicum of common sense know that if you prepare for the worst case scenario now, you can avoid TONS of pain in the future. Yes, AGW will also open up traditionally icy regions - Canada and Russia might actually become warm enough to play host to agriculture. But does that mean that we should just accept the inevitable and hope it'll play itself out? That sounds incredibly...irresponsible and idiotic to me and very short-sighted.
pusher robot Ars Tribunus Militum
True. But it's absolutely fair to question whether this study was undertaken specifically to generate the accompanying headline.
PanzerWatts wrote:
Weird, Africa and Texas haven't exactly experiences huge surpluses of agriculture. In fact, both are in prolonged droughts. The boost for crop production will be limited to regions that are, right now, too cold for crop production. But the most of humanity's crop production is centered around rivers, which would be subject to flooding, and temperate climates, which would probably become tropical climates which are not tremendously suitable for agriculture. Don't forget about all the erratic weather which would produce prolonged periods of drought and rainy seasons.
Gilgamesh417 wrote:
But does that mean that we should just accept the inevitable and hope it'll play itself out? That sounds incredibly...irresponsible and idiotic to me and very short-sighted.
No more so than to say the opposite. Without a clear understanding of the costs and benefits, or even any attempt to really rationally account them, it's irresponsible and idiotic and very short-sighted to say we should do one thing or the other.
Dick Cheney Ars Scholae Palatinae
''does that mean that we should just accept the inevitable and hope it'll play itself out? ''
Yes, just make sure the military is ready to take care of the problems.
arcite Ars Legatus Legionis
Another thing to consider....
In 1500AD there were only around 500 million humans on the whole planet! Now we are pushing seven billion (and on track to push nine billion by 2025!!!).
England (and much of Europe for that matter) used to be heavily forested. Those forests are long gone, and now we are in the process of chopping down the actual lungs of the earth, ie. Rain forests of South America, Central Africa, and Asia. One only has to spend a few minutes on Google Earth to see the very visible changes made by man.
500 years ago we did not have thousands of coal burning plants, millions of acres of burning vegetation (from poor agricultural practices in the developing world), nor did we have the nearly one billion cars and airplanes.
We humans have, in quick succession, turned our once green and blue pristine planet into a brown, sooty, toxic, primordial, mess.
EDIT: oh and I almost forgot to mention the oceans (once BRIMMING with life) are now systematically turning into acid baths best suited to blooms of RED TIDE and endless armies of poisonous jelly fish.
Last edited by arcite on Wed Oct 12, 2011 10:02 am
pusher robot wrote:
Agreed, it is fair to question it. In reading the abstract it appears that this causal relationship has been shown in other studies, and this study was done to get a better handle on what might have really happened. On a side note, this study was done completely in China not known for a high output of AWG fear-mongering.
Recent studies have shown strong temporal correlations between past climate changes and societal crises. However, the specific causal mechanisms underlying this relation have not been addressed. We explored quantitative responses of 14 fine-grained agro-ecological, socioeconomic, and demographic variables to climate fluctuations from A.D. 1500–1800 in Europe.
illy-chan Ars Centurion
Long story short: humans become massively cranky when there isn't enough food.
I love that illustration, imagine the smell though!
MoonShark Ars Praefectus
Yes, moreso than the opposite, because people are actively pursing that "clear understanding" by studying the chemistry, geology, physics, economics, sociology, etc. of various mitigation and sequestration techniques. In order to say nobody understands the costs and benefits, you have to ignore all that work. Stop spreading unneccesary FUD, please.
Brutha Ars Centurion
So does this study say why natural climate change stopped in the early 1800s when human industry started up? Because since then, according to everyone, man is the sole responsible party for the "climate change" we have. It's warming? Humans with their coal! It's cooling? Aerosols and pollution blocking out the sun! It's wetter? Increased particulates in the air causing water condensation! It's drier? Humans chopping down trees and using water! It's all the evil humans fault! There's only one solution: Massive, massive government regulation of everything people do, with the corresponding taxes and communism! Then the human caused climate change will stop as we all go back to the stone age... and I guess natural climate change come back? So the earth gets hotter and colder and wetter and drier anyway? But hey, at least we all have to pay a tax on the air we breathe, so I guess that is a benefit. Oh, and the environmentalists get to fly to Cancun and Copenhagen while the rest of us drive a horse and buggy, IF we are lucky.
C Boy Ars Scholae Palatinae
Weird, Africa and Texas haven't exactly experiences huge surpluses of agriculture. In fact, both are in prolonged droughts.
You need to throw Oklahoma in with Texas. Between the two of them, cotton production is down almost 50%.
This will eventually result in higher clothing costs(or perhaps the return of polyester?).
In addition, some farmers have switched from peanuts to cotton to take advantage of the increase prices for cotton, which combined with the soggy peanut crops from Georgia, are going to result in a large increase in the price of peanuts(and peanut butter).
MoonShark wrote:
Not in this paper, which is what TFA is about. Sensitive, much?
tbehr Seniorius Lurkius
"In doing so, they discovered a set of casual linkages between climate change and human crisis."
Casual vs causal?
arcite wrote:
"Love" might be a strong word but it is definitely interesting...
I assume that's the Inquistion warning that the sinners repent quick before they put the noose around their neck? Makes you proud to be a Christian, I tells ya...
Brutha wrote:
Hyperbolic hyperbole is hyperbolic.
No one is saying that humans are the only cause of climate change, just that we are becoming the greatest factor in it.
Yeah, because the paper exists in a vacuum Now you're just being dense.
But why is that relevant? If the climate is going to change even in the absence of human factors, then it is not clear why attempting to prevent climate change by curtailing human factors is a sensible policy.
Rabid Platypus Ars Praetorian
OMFG! Humans have been causing global warming since 1500! Everybody quick, quit breathing!!
Rabid Platypus wrote:
Now, now. You are completely off base. Humans caused global warming much longer than that! How long have we had humans/human like analogues? Neanderthals, anyone? And when they came, the world was in an ice age. Is europe buried under glaciers now? America? No? Then, I submit to you that the REAL global warming was when Homo Erectus and the Neanderthals conducted scorched earth warfare and conquered fire, with the corresponding increase in CO2 as they learned how to barbeque and cook those tasty, tasty Mammoths. So not only did humans end the ice age, we also killed off the mammoths! If we humans can do that with our pointy sticks and spears and flints, imagine how sick and ill the earth is now that we have-gasp!-coal plants! For details, see arcite's post, where any and every thing is our fault. Next week we will explain how life will cease and the Earth turn into a blackened shell, drifting in its orbit around the sun because some human somewhere--get this evil scenario-- failed to use a mercury filled CFL and instead left their incandescent light on. For twenty minutes.
I tell you, we have to stamp out all use of energy (by the proletariat of course, those who are our environmental betters have bought their carbon indulgences and can do whatever the heck they want) or the world will die! And there will be no more bunnies! Please think of the bunnies!
mmnw Ars Scholae Palatinae et Subscriptor
Funny that this is still a field of active research. I remember learning in school, when we discussed the Thirty Years War, that one of the underlying causes was colder climate and shortage of food (there were - of cause - other prominent factors: reformation, tensions between clergy and worldly leaders, tensions within and without the german empire and so on). I checked, my history book was printed in the mid-90's and it really lists colder climate as a factor of the thirty years war. So, in which part is that paper news?
The rate at which humans cause climate change to occur is a large factor -- natural climate change does not occur as quickly as what we humans are causing it to.
If cancer is going to kill people without human intervention, then why even try to cure it?
It's more like... there's a natural incidence of cancer, plus a higher rate due to exposure to carcinogens and radioisotopes and such (which are largely human-controlled). Do we try to limit exposure to the latter? Of course. Does that mean we can't *also* research the former? Of course not.
That is an anti-scientific view.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/ctl/abrupt.html
More like, if your cancer cannot be cured, why undergo chemotherapy?
My more serious question, and not the rather obvious commentary, is this: What "Natural climate change" has occurred since the 1810's or so? What natural climate change is occurring now? Because I have yet to see anything since the 1980's, aside from Mount Pinatubo, that has not been blamed on humans in some way.
In other words, how the heck would we tell if the polar caps are melting because of natural climate change vis a vis the soccer mom in her SUV? The "rate of change?" How do we know what the natural rate of change is?
And if the earth is warming 3 degrees by itself, and human involvement makes it 3.1 degree, well, that is not worth anything. Instead of the hysteria that some peddle about the end of days, such as arcite above.
By the way, has no one noticed there are FAR more trees in America now than, say, 1880? Because back then, we used charcoal. A lot. And that takes trees. Lots of them. We only use charcoal in two things now, that I'm aware of: steel making and barbeque grills. Not the primary source of heat. So our forests have recovered, quite dramatically, in fact. Hasn't anyone noticed what happens to an empty field over 50 years? It turns, most of the time, into forest. It's not like chopping an acre of trees means it is just barren ground forever more.
Verio Ars Tribunus Militum
mmnw wrote:
I think the idea is, since this became a political issue, and there are plenty of people who are far more interested in using it for that purpose (See Brutha's posts above), it needs to be studied even more exhaustively to prove even more conclusively that what we already knew is correct.
Sort of like the anti-vax movement. We already knew with 99% certainty that certain things were safe, but because of all the FUD, everyone went BACK to the lab so they could prove with 99.99% certainty that everything is ok.
At least this is my interpretation. Another answer might be that science never says "we are done here, we know this for certain", and there is value in confirming what we already know to a greater degree of confidence and accuracy.
Do we try to limit exposure to the latter at all costs? No, we don't. In fact, in most cases, we are not willing to pay more than slight costs. In fact, in many cases, people will gladly pay for the privilege.
fromhell Ars Scholae Palatinae
Many people clearly do not have a grasp of the scale of the problem we are facing: the loss of coastlines, the near-term depletion of our most valuable commodity (petroleum), the collapse of fisheries globally, a major economic crisis largely spurred by energy issues, and the list goes on. Fear-mongering? Calling attention to these issues is not irresponsible.
Our future may end up being horrific, and it is not the least surprising that people would rather ignore this with, "everything looks just fine from my perspective!" This unwarranted and ill-advised optimism is our undoing.
On the other hand, current popular solutions to the energy crisis remain wholly impractical. Renewables are proving to be very inefficient and costly as they scale up. Yes, the price of solar panels have dropped tremendously, but the real costs lie elsewhere in storage and environmental impact (urban deployment excepted), not to mention major limitations inherent in capacity. There is currently only one near-term practical solution (maybe two if you want to count the IFR, though the technology is not as good as the MSR) to the energy crisis, and that is with a long-forgotten nuclear reactor design from the 60s called the molten salt reactor.
More details: http://energyfromthorium.com/2011/10/04/flibe-uk-4/
A number of us are trying to drum up federal support with a White House petition here:
https://wwws.whitehouse.gov/petitions/! ... e/JkwTRBlv
Here's a couple links to articles about Peak Oil:
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/8410
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Pe ... it-In.html
The collapse of the Newfoundland cod fishery in '93 (many years later it still hasn't recovered):
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cod_fishin ... wfoundland
One of the best scientific resources for Global Warming information (interact with real climate scientists!):
http://www.realclimate.org/
Last edited by fromhell on Wed Oct 12, 2011 12:08 pm
Volt-aire Seniorius Lurkius
First, historians have long linked droughts and famines to periods of social and political upheaval. This certainly adds new specificity and understanding to the field, but it's not like the mighty, rational scientists swept in and told those silly humanities majors with their books and stories what was what.
Second: AGW trolls (one way or the other) really don't have a place in this thread.. All the research done was for periods prior to any large-scale human intervention. The only relevance would be that changes in climate--whether natural or anthropogenic--can have huge, real, effects on human society, and have in the past. Drawing conclusions as to whether changes in the future will be positive or negative are far out of the scope of the research, at the very least.
Prattling about how your political opponents will surely blame neanderthal exhalations because aren't-THOSE-people-so-stupid should really be beyond the scope of the discussion entirely.
I thought they were going to moderate discussions like this more heavily? I certainly would like that.
10 posts | registered Apr 6, 2011
Are you seriously arguing that natural climate change is just as bad-or-good as natural+anthropogenic climate change? That the magnitude, direction, and time scales of climate change are unimportant? Seriously?
What about human-specific effects: black carbon melting glaciers faster than warm air alone would have done? What about oceans becoming less basic because of the increased carbonic acid concentration? The human factors that cool rather than warm have their own effects too, like acid rain from sulfur aerosols (the same particles that are responsible for much global dimming). Does that not matter either?
It's not as simple as "the climate is going to change anyway." You need to stop arguing as though that were the case.
*edit* Screwed up half of this post trying to quote it, but it's not like Brutha is sticking around to read it anymore anyway.
Last edited by Wheels Of Confusion on Thu Oct 13, 2011 11:48 am
Shorter Volt-aire: Ban those who disagree with AGW. Because I note you only pointed out my posts, but not the doom and gloom of humans destroying everything like arcite and fromhell.
This is a thread about "changing climate." It says so in the title, in the body of the article, and everything. Yet you want to say that attempts to point out that the earth has changed climate on its own with rather dramatic affects on humanity are beyond the pale, and should be moderated.
I asked a question: why do the AGW people assume natural climate change stopped when the first factory started up? And you are saying, in effect, "NO! We can't ask that kind of question in a climate change thread! Ban the deniers!"
In a forum where people have said that people who deny AGW are stupid mouthbreathers, and did not get moderated for so saying, you types should be able to handle a little dissent. But then, dissent isn't very good is it?
Edit to respond to Wheels of confusion: I'm the one being "hysterical," when in the exact same post you blame humans for melting glaciers and destroying the ocean and causing acid rain, and then get offended that I say that is what AGW people parrot? I fail to see how anything I said is, in fact, more hysterical than what others in this thread have said. See arcite. Just because I restate it in a way that sounds "hysterical" doesn't mean you AGW people aren't, in fact, being chicken little yelling hysterically that the temperatures are rising, the temperatures are rising. We must all have a King! And I note you didn't address my question: where is the natural climate change today that is not human caused? Because all I have ever read is how the evil humans are changing nature (and of course, all change in climate is bad, because, well, it must be, I guess). If you think I'm being hysterical, then show me the climate change universally acknowledged as not human caused, even partially, in the last two hundred years. Only volcanoes fit the bill, and even they have people being blamed partially. So where is the totally natural climate change?
Last edited by Brutha on Wed Oct 12, 2011 11:40 am
Additionally, don't forget prolonged droughts (already seen in Africa and Texas) in regions where the climate is already traditionally very warm.
Did you just blame the Texas drought on AGW?
And another blame the drought on AGW post?
FWIW, a slightly warmer climate would extend growing seasons in lots of places, so no, the boost would not be limited to regions that are, right now, too cold for crop production. A longer growing season generally means more productive yields and / or a second crop.
I stand corrected -- though my original thought still remains -- if we can lessen the affect of climate change why not?
Because you can live many more years with chemotherapy even if it doesn't completely cure your cancer. Again, it might not cure it, but it will lessen the affect.
Last edited by skicow on Wed Oct 12, 2011 11:47 am
Personne Ars Scholae Palatinae
illy-chan wrote:
I remember reading in the 80's about the Soviet cigarette and vodka shortages and "massively cranky" was definitely appropriate there too.


The semi-monthly meeting of the City Council of Walcott, Iowa, was held on Monday, the 4th day of April, 2016, at Walcott City Hall. Mayor John Kostichek called the meeting to order at 6:00 p.m. Council members present were: Tim Koehler, Lisa Mengler, Jackie Puck, and Jacob Puck. Absent: Virgil Wayne Latimer. City employees present: Jeff Blake, Steve Bowman, Lisa Rickertsen, and Tom Schirman.
Public Hearings. Mayor Kostichek opened the public hearing on the FYE 2016 Budget Amendment. Rickertsen reported the amendment includes increased expenditures for: interfund transfers, water tower repairs, sewer equipment, and vehicle and equipment repairs. No written or oral comments were received. Mengler moved and Koehler seconded to close the hearing and open the public hearing on the real estate offer from Rita Stender to purchase 23' of the Rowe Street ROW, adjacent to her lot. Motion carried. No oral or written comments were received. Jackie Puck moved and Mengler seconded to close the hearing and resume the regular meeting. Motion carried.
Consent Agenda. Koehler moved and Jacob Puck seconded to approve the consent agenda, which includes the invoices, minutes from March 21, 2016, and beer permits (including Sunday license and outdoor area) for Walcott Unified Fund at Victory and Wescott Parks. Motion carried.
Resolution 2016-9, Approving Budget Amendment for FYE 2016. Mengler moved and Jackie Puck seconded to approve Resolution 2016-9. Roll call ayes: Mengler, Jackie Puck, Koehler, and Jacob Puck. Nays: None. Motion carried.
Resolution 2016-10, Approving Sale of Property to Rita Stender. Jacob Puck moved and Koehler seconded to approve Resolution 2016-10. Roll call ayes: Jacob Puck, Koehler, Mengler, and Jackie Puck. Nays: None. Motion carried.
City Property Field Entrance from Main Street. Rickertsen reported on concerns from the farm tenant regarding the field entrance from Main Street. She stated there is a 20' wide area where the sidewalk is thicker so the farm equipment can access, but the area is only marked with flags. Bowman will look into some other marking options for a more permanent marking solution.
Larry Koberg – Fastpitch Tournaments. Larry Koberg reported there will be three fastpitch softball tournament this summer. The Fastpitch Invitational will be held from May 27th – 29th and the Iowa Area ISC Qualifier Men's Fastpitch Tournament will be from June 17th – 19th. The third tournament is scheduled July 22nd – 24th but if there are not enough teams it will not be held and no exterior fencing is needed, except for foul lines. Koberg requested fencing for both Wescott and Victory Parks for the tournaments, beginning on May 25th. Koehler moved and Jacob Puck seconded to allow the fences to be installed at Wescott and Victory Parks, beginning on May 25th and be removed on June 20th. Motion carried. This year marks the 32nd year of the Iowa Area ISC tournament in Walcott.
Downey Street Sidewalk Improvements Project.
Designate Engineers. Mengler moved and Jackie Puck seconded that MSA Professionals Services be designated as engineers in connection with the S. Downey Street Sidewalk Improvements Project. Motion carried.
Resolution 2016-11, Adopt Preliminary Resolution Covering S. Downey Street Sidewalk Improvements Project. Koehler moved the adoption of a preliminary resolution, Resolution 2016-11, pursuant to Section 384.42 of the Code of Iowa. The motion was seconded by Jacob Puck with the votes as follows: Ayes: Koehler, Jacob Puck, Mengler, and Jackie Puck. Nays: Motion carried.
Resolution 2016-12, Approving and Adopting Preliminary Plans and Specifications, Estimate of Cost, Plat and Schedule. Rickertsen stated that the Project Engineers had completed and filed the preliminary plans, specifications, estimate of cost, plat and schedule. Mengler proposed the adoption of Resolution 2016-12. The motion was seconded by Koehler. Roll call ayes: Mengler, Koehler, Jackie Puck, and Jacob Puck. Nays: Motion carried.
Resolution 2016–13, Resolution of Necessity. Mengler moved and Jacob Puck seconded to approve Resolution 2016-13. Roll call ayes: Mengler, Jacob Puck, Koehler, and Jackie Puck. Nays: Motion carried. The Resolution of Necessity and preliminary plat and schedule of assessments will be filed with the Scott County Treasurer.
Resolution 2016-14, Ordering Preparation of Detailed Plans, Specifications, Notice of Hearing, Notice to Bidders, and Form of Contract. Jacob Puck moved and Mengler seconded to approve Resolution 2016-14. Roll call ayes: Jacob Puck, Mengler, Jackie Puck, and Koehler. Nays: Motion carried.
Request from Danny Holmes. Discussion was held on the request from Danny Holmes to concrete between the proposed hammerhead at the end of S. Downey Street and his driveway. Mengler moved and Koehler seconded to pour a concrete approach from the end of the hammerhead to his driveway (property line), at the City's expense. Motion carried.
Project Update. Eric Schallert reported the project plans have been revised to narrow the street to 33' from back to back of the curbs. Additionally, a sump pump collection system pipe and manholes have been added in addition to the pavement subdrain system, and all stubs from both the sanitary system and the sump pump collection pipe are planned to be extended to the property line of each home. He reported on options and costs looked at for lining the existing sanitary sewer instead of replacing it. His recommendation was to replace the sanitary sewer line. Dennis Keitel was introduced as the new project engineer. Estimated project construction, engineering, and contingency costs are roughly $530,000.
Resolution 2016–15, Provide for a Notice of Hearing on Plans, Specifications, Form of Contract & Cost Estimate. Jackie Puck moved and Mengler seconded to approve Resolution 2016-15. Roll call ayes: Jackie Puck, Mengler, Koehler, and Jacob Puck. Nays: Motion carried. The public hearing will be on April 18th at 6:00 p.m. and bids will be received until 2:00 p.m. on April 28th.
Resolution 2016-16, Approving Official Zoning Map. Rickertsen reported a new map has been prepared to include the three rezonings approved by Ordinance since the last official Zoning Map was updated and approved. Koehler moved and Jacob Puck seconded to approve Resolution 2016-16. Roll call ayes: Koehler, Jacob Puck, Jackie Puck, and Mengler. Nays: None. Motion carried.
City Clerk Report. Rickertsen reported on the requirements of an annual examination. The examination for FYE 2015 was approximately $4,100 and the last full audit for FYE 2012 was nearly $8,700. Mengler moved and Koehler seconded to request the State Auditor's Office to perform an annual examination for FYE 2016. Motion carried. Koehler suggested a full audit be performed every five years. Rickertsen reported on examples of economic development incentives (TIF Rebates) from other communities and stated the need to discuss criteria that is important to council. Koehler moved and Mengler seconded to table until the next regular meeting. Motion carried.
Council Comments. Koehler stated he would like to discuss S. Main weight limits at the next meeting. .
Audience Comments. John Brockmann suggested the building at 1113 N. Main Street be connected to the new storm sewer main. Brockmann also encouraged the City to have the City Engineer review the sanitary sewer work being done at Iowa 80 Truckstop. Brenda Arp and Kurt Arp were present questioning the compost facility closure. Kurt Arp questioned the reason for the closing and suggested placing security cameras at the area instead of having a guard for limited hours. Mayor Kostichek reported on past problems (illegal dumping) at the area. Discussion was held on the need to advertise for a compost guard, starting in June, and a crossing guard for the next school year.
Mengler moved and Jacob Puck seconded to adjourn at 7:10 p.m. Motion carried. All votes on motions were unanimous, unless noted.


Next week sees the eagerly-awaited UK publication of Peter F. Hamilton's new novel, Great North Road. We caught up with the bestselling author to ask him a few questions about his time as a novelist.
You've been published for twenty years next year, how have things changed for you as a writer in that time?
I'd like to think I've learned a lot about the whole process of novel writing in all that time. The way I write the outline and plot structure now is certainly more sophisticated than it was when I approached Mindstar Rising, my first book. That kind of development can only ever happen through experience. I'm not sure it's necessarily any easier to write a novel twenty years on, but I certainly have a lot more confidence about being able to deliver when I sit down and face the dreaded blank screen of chapter one.
Your novels always have wonderful detail about technology and new sciences – how much research do you do before starting to write?
Enough to make it sound plausible, is my rule of thumb. There's always the danger of too much research which can spill over into the book, and drown the reader in too much unnecessary detail. The bigger challenge with future technologies is working out the impact they'll have on society and the changes in attitude they'll instigate.
Are there any advancements or technologies that you've written about in your novels that have since become reality?
This is the benefit of writing stuff set hundreds or thousands of years in the future, you rarely get called out on improbabilities. Having said that, Greg Mandel (written twenty years ago and set in a future now only twenty years away) uses electronics that are suspiciously like laptops today – they didn't exist when I wrote them.
Do you have any favourite characters and who are they and why?
Like any good parent, I show no favouritism. However, that said...I do like writing Gore Burnelli simply because his opinions are completely opposite to my own. I always have fun doing that.
What's the most interesting/strangest fan encounter you've ever had?
Some people have written albums 'inspired by' the books, which is both crazy and wonderful. And yes I have them on my iTunes library. Then there was one reader who brought all (and I do mean all) his poetry to an event, and wanted me to read and critique it there and then. The people in the signing queue behind him weren't terribly impressed.


text:
Q: Python module not found even when it exists in the path I am getting a "No module named X" error even when X is clearly present in the system path. The easiest way to explain is with a repro case:

*

*Clear a folder and install google-auth-httplib2 locally.

circleci@27190f660cbe:~/project/tempd$ rm -rf *
circleci@27190f660cbe:~/project/tempd$ pip install --target . google-auth-httplib2
Collecting google-auth-httplib2
  Using cached https://files.pythonhosted.org/packages/33/49/c814d6d438b823441552198f096fcd0377fd6c88714dbed34f1d3c8c4389/google_auth_httplib2-0.0.3-py2.py3-none-any.whl
Collecting httplib2>=0.9.1 (from google-auth-httplib2)
Collecting google-auth (from google-auth-httplib2)
  Using cached https://files.pythonhosted.org/packages/c5/9b/ed0516cc1f7609fb0217e3057ff4f0f9f3e3ce79a369c6af4a6c5ca25664/google_auth-1.6.3-py2.py3-none-any.whl
Collecting rsa>=3.1.4 (from google-auth->google-auth-httplib2)
  Using cached https://files.pythonhosted.org/packages/02/e5/38518af393f7c214357079ce67a317307936896e961e35450b70fad2a9cf/rsa-4.0-py2.py3-none-any.whl
Collecting pyasn1-modules>=0.2.1 (from google-auth->google-auth-httplib2)
  Using cached https://files.pythonhosted.org/packages/da/98/8ddd9fa4d84065926832bcf2255a2b69f1d03330aa4d1c49cc7317ac888e/pyasn1_modules-0.2.4-py2.py3-none-any.whl
Collecting cachetools>=2.0.0 (from google-auth->google-auth-httplib2)
  Using cached https://files.pythonhosted.org/packages/39/2b/d87fc2369242bd743883232c463f28205902b8579cb68dcf5b11eee1652f/cachetools-3.1.0-py2.py3-none-any.whl
Collecting six>=1.9.0 (from google-auth->google-auth-httplib2)
  Using cached https://files.pythonhosted.org/packages/73/fb/00a976f728d0d1fecfe898238ce23f502a721c0ac0ecfedb80e0d88c64e9/six-1.12.0-py2.py3-none-any.whl
Collecting pyasn1>=0.1.3 (from rsa>=3.1.4->google-auth->google-auth-httplib2)
  Using cached https://files.pythonhosted.org/packages/7b/7c/c9386b82a25115cccf1903441bba3cbadcfae7b678a20167347fa8ded34c/pyasn1-0.4.5-py2.py3-none-any.whl
Installing collected packages: httplib2, pyasn1, rsa, pyasn1-modules, cachetools, six, google-auth, google-auth-httplib2
Successfully installed cachetools-3.1.0 google-auth-1.6.3 google-auth-httplib2-0.0.3 httplib2-0.12.1 pyasn1-0.4.5 pyasn1-modules-0.2.4 rsa-4.0 six-1.12.0
You are using pip version 9.0.1, however version 19.0.3 is available.
You should consider upgrading via the 'pip install --upgrade pip' command.

*Verify the module and __init__.py are present.

circleci@27190f660cbe:~/project/tempd$ find google/auth/transport
google/auth/transport
google/auth/transport/grpc.pyc
google/auth/transport/requests.py
google/auth/transport/urllib3.py
google/auth/transport/requests.pyc
google/auth/transport/__init__.py
google/auth/transport/_http_client.pyc
google/auth/transport/urllib3.pyc
google/auth/transport/__init__.pyc
google/auth/transport/grpc.py
google/auth/transport/_http_client.py

*Attempt to import it in python, but still get error.

circleci@27190f660cbe:~/project/tempd$ python
Python 2.7.13 (default, Sep 14 2017, 23:43:58)
[GCC 4.9.2] on linux2
Type "help", "copyright", "credits" or "license" for more information.
>>> import sys
>>> sys.path.insert(0, ".")
>>> import google.auth.transport.requests
Traceback (most recent call last):
  File "<stdin>", line 1, in <module>
ImportError: No module named google.auth.transport.requests
>>> exit()

I am seeing this in python 2.7.13. What is going on here, and what is the solution?
Note: I need to maintain support for 2.7.13.
Note2: Unfortunately I am constrained to having to import in this way - virtualenv etc. are not options.
For context, this is a vendoring problem. I am developing a python app that is "installed" by a non-programmer on their system by unzipping a zip file and running python from there. Thus, solutions like virtualenv (or really anything that don't directly solve this in code) aren't going to work.

A: The problem with your setup is that directory google/ lacks file __init__.py so import google doesn't work. Create google/__init__.py, restart python and try again:
$ touch google/__init__.py
$ python2.7
Python 2.7.13 (default, Sep 26 2018, 18:42:22)
[GCC 6.3.0 20170516] on linux2
Type "help", "copyright", "credits" or "license" for more information.
>>> import sys
>>> sys.path.insert(0, ".")
>>> import google.auth.transport.requests