It's official! Children's Diabetes Foundation (CDF) has confirmed that the esteemed Rebecca Minkoff will have her creations on the runway when the Spring Brass Ring is held in spring (remember it used to be fall) on April 4. Spring Brass Ring has a nice ring to it! The multi-faceted fundraiser set records last year, especially for a daytime event, and begins with morning festivities, silent auction, live auction, Jewels for Hope and of course the luncheon and show.
Minkoff has had a rapid rise in the world of fashion design and is an industry leader in the luxury handbags, accessories, footwear and apparel categories. Her playful and edgy designs are spotted around the world on young women as well as celebrities. She developed an affinity for design while in the production department in high school. She moved to New York City at age 18 to pursue her dream of being a fashion designer. In 2001, she designed a version of the "I Love New York" (part of a five-piece capsule collection) shirt that appeared on The Tonight Show and became an overnight sensation. In 2005, she designed her first handbag dubbed The Morning After Bag (M.A.B.). Her career was further enhanced by the support of her brother, the company's CEO and co-founder. Uri Minkoff ushered in and pioneered the company's industry-leading social media efforts.
After five years of designing her statement-making handbags and accessories with her trademark leathers, studs and hardware, she returned to her roots of apparel design and introduced her first ready-to-wear collection in 2009. Today, she is a global brand and there's even a men's accessory line under the label Uri Minkoff. In 2017, Rebecca Minkoff Watches was launched.
In 2011, she was recognized by the industry by being given the "Breakthrough Designer Award" from the Accessories Council. As a philanthropist, in 2017 she was announced as a member of the first-ever New York State Council on Women and Girls, in the company of other female industry leaders dedicated to bringing women together for positive change. In 2018, she established the Female Founder Collective, a network of businesses led by women that invest in women's financial power across the socio-economic spectrum by enabling and powering female-owned businesses.


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Garden visit, nr Crowborough. For this visit we are crossing the border into East Sussex. We will be shown around by the gardener who lives on site and will also show you the gardener's cottage garden. Stone Cross House is famed for its displays of Camellia, Rhododendron, Japanese maples and its wonderful arrays of May flowering tulips.
Tea and cake will be served in the garage.
There is a small charge for charity and we have agreed with the owners that Plant Heritage members can enter for £3 (please bring your membership card). You are very welcome to bring a friend. Non-members will be charged £5 for garden entry.
Event Location: Stone Cross House, nr Crowborough, East Sussex. Contact the Kent group (email address below) for full details.


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Andrea Hunt is Vice President- General Manager, Biscuits North America, Weston Foods. Andrea joined Weston late 2015 as its Chief Marketing Officer to help reinvigorate the business and lead an ambitious transformation to shift the organization from supply-driven to consumer-led. Thanks to the tremendous contributions of an incredible team, these efforts culminated in Marketer of the Year recognition by Strategy magazine for 2017.
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Andrea has a Bachelor of Commerce from Queen's University, an MBA from Schulich at York University, and is earning a Doctorate in 'Patience' as taught by her three young boys. When not engaged professionally, Andrea can be seen marathon running or in the hockey stands, and very, very occasionally drinking in the solitude of galleries and finer décor haunts across Canada & the US.


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School for the Deaf helps students pursue work, college
8:32 a.m. PDT July 25, 2016
In art class, Cristian Flores likes to draw cars. No, correct that. He likes to draw one kind of car in particular — the Batmobile.
Flores, 18, is a student at the Oregon School for the Deaf. He is both deaf and legally blind, and, like many his age, is still exploring what he wants to do with his life.
"I'm still thinking about it," he said through an interpreter. "I think about it a lot actually."
While Flores takes classes such as math and writing through the Adult Transition Program, he also participates in the school's Work Experience Program, which is a transition program for deaf youth ages 18-21 who have graduated from high school and are unsure about their future.
The nearly 30 students participate in college prep or life skills programs and work with vocational rehabilitation. They learn how to apply for jobs, interview, get housing and more.
Students often go on to take classes at Chemeketa Community College or one of the few deaf colleges in the country, or they pursue jobs.
Through the school's partnership with Capitol Auto Group, Flores got a job doing janitorial work. In addition to taking out the garbage and other cleaning duties, he said he now does some detail work on the cars and cares for the flowers.
"There's a whole variety of things to do," he said.
He said he loves the people he works with as well, saying they are all really nice.
"He has so much potential," said ATP Teacher Katie Heise. "He's so sweet, a good worker … just, wow … an amazing kid."
Heise said her favorite part of teaching is when she sees her students succeed.
Heise is hard-of-hearing herself. By teaching her students and showing them what other members of the deaf community are doing, she said their confidence grows.
"They say, 'If he can do it, maybe I can do it too,' " she said.
Although school districts, including Salem-Keizer School District, have some interpreters and transition programs for students, the Oregon School for the Deaf is the only school in the state that teaches entirely in American Sign Language.
Heise said communication is a huge factor in learning, but she teaches her students to use different types of communication, such as technology, writing, reading lips, and gestures.
The school would like more businesses to provide volunteer and internship opportunities for these students.
"Some people are scared to communicate with deaf people; some don't want to take the time," she said. "There is underlying discrimination. They don't want to take on a liability.
"That's really discouraging for the students."
However, Heise said those assumptions are often incorrect. She said the students are known to be good workers. They do not get distracted and are fast workers.
"They want to get a job and do it. They want to prove they can," she said.
To help address those concerns, one of the school's program provides on-site job coaches for the students to guide them through training and interpret until the students are comfortable in the position.
She said it can be time consuming and that businesses need to be patient and willing to teach, but it is worth it.
She spoke of how proud she and the school are of Flores, as is Capital Auto Group. Flores plans to continue at the school while he navigates his future.
Heise said the programs would like to collaborate with all types of organizations in the community, particularly dealing with housing, employment and volunteering opportunities.
"I always tell my students to believe," she said. "They always say, 'I can't … I'm deaf.' And I just say, 'You have wings, you just need to learn how to fly with them.'"
Businesses and organizations interested in partnering with the school's programs can email Katie Heise at Katie.heise@osd.k12.or.us or call 503-378-3825.
Contact Natalie Pate at npate@StatesmanJournal.com, 503-399-6745 or follow on Twitter @Nataliempate or http://www.Facebook.com/nataliepatejournalist
Bill could eliminate hidden tax on student loan debt
New plan helps disabled save without penalty

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


WASHINGTON (AP) — Two experienced federal judges and the Obama administration's top Supreme Court lawyer are widely considered the leading candidates for the next high court opening if Justice John Paul Stevens retires this year.
Stevens, 89, is expected to decide soon whether to step down after more than 34 years on the court.
If he does, President Barack Obama would have his second high court pick in as many years.
The three high court prospects have different strengths and weaknesses. But even conservative activists say any of the three would likely win confirmation in a Senate in which Democrats control 59 seats.
A fight over a second Obama Supreme Court nominee could rev up both Democratic and Republican fundraising machines for the November election, even though Stevens' replacement by a liberal-leaning justice would not alter the court's ideological balance.
A new justice, however, would be hard pressed to immediately replicate Stevens' success in forging majorities by winning the votes of Justices Sandra Day O'Connor, now retired, and Anthony Kennedy, in high-profile cases ranging from abortion to the rights of detainees at the U.S. naval base in Cuba.
The president's choice, whether it is one of these three or someone else, could depend on several factors, including how much political energy he wants to expend, particularly in advance of congressional elections.
On the other hand, with Democrats widely expected to lose Senate seats in November, Obama might be willing to push for a more controversial nominee now because confirmations likely will only get harder next year.
—Does Obama want to name another woman, or a member of an ethnic or racial minority?
• Would it matter to him, or anyone else, if the court were made up entirely of Catholics and Jews? Stevens is the only Protestant on the court now, and both Garland and Kagan are Jewish.
• If a president's Supreme Court choices help shape his legacy, would he favor Kagan, the youngest of the three?
• Does Wood, raised and educated in Texas, have an edge because she would replace Stevens, a Northwestern University law graduate, as the only justice without an Ivy League pedigree?
If the president is casting a wider net, two Democratic governors — Jennifer Granholm of Michigan and Deval Patrick of Massachusetts — also could be considered.
Because so little time has passed since last year's selection and confirmation of Sotomayor, both the White House and its political opponents are going over well-worn ground in evaluating Kagan and Wood.
Wood has a paper trail of opinions that appears most likely to generate sustained opposition from Senate Republicans and conservative interest groups.
Even as she was being considered last year, conservatives cited her opinion in a 2001 case that went against anti-abortion protesters who wanted to blockade clinics. The Supreme Court reversed the ruling.
But Wood also has served for 15 years as a judge on the same court as two prominent conservatives, Judges Frank Easterbrook and Richard Posner.
The 7th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals is noted for its collegiality, despite ideological divisions, a point that could appeal to Obama.


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Scattered Stones
Jun7 by theirishaesthete
The surname O'Gara is an anglicized version of the Irish Ó Gadhra, meaning Descendent of Gadhra, a personal name that in turn derives from the word 'gadhar' meaning hound or mastiff. The family originally occupied an area known as Luighne, on the borders of what today are counties Mayo and Sligo. However, by the late 13th century they had been driven out of this part of the country by the MacSurtains (otherwise Jordans) and MacCostelloes, and so moved to what became known as the barony of Coolavin, County Sligo, where they remained in power until the late 16th century. Here, close to the north-west shores of Lough Gara (Loch Uí Ghadhra), they would build a large castle known as Moygara.
In its present form, Moygara Castle consists of a large square bawn, each side measuring 51 metres, with a slightly angled residential tower in every corner and the remains of a gatehouse on the western side. The tower in the south-west corner is three storeys high, whereas those in the other corners rose just two storeys. Investigation of the site by the Moygara Castle Research & Conservation Project suggests originally a tower house stood here prior to the construction of the castle at some period between the early 16th to early 17th centuries. In 1538 Manus O'Donnell, after capturing Sligo Castle marched on and took the castle at Moygara, his son being killed by a shot fired from within the building. More than four decades later, in 1581, Moygara Castle was again attacked, this time by a number of Scots mercenaries in the hire of Sir Nicholas Malby, Lord President of Connaught. They burnt the castle and killed the son of Cian O'Gara.
By the 17th century, Moygara and its surrounding territories belonged to Fearghal Ó Gadhra who is believed to have attended Trinity College Dublin. Ó Gadhra is remembered for being the patron of The Annals of the Four Masters, a history of the country compiled by a number of Franciscan friars led by Mícheál Ó Cléirigh during the 1630s. There is some dispute over why Ó Gadhra should have assumed this position: it may be that while an undergraduate he had come into contact with antiquarian scholars James Ussher and James Ware and this inspired an interest in Irish history. Alternatively it may have come about because when young Ó Gadhra had been a ward of Sir Theobald Dillon, first Viscount Dillon who had close associations with the Franciscan order. In the aftermath of the Confederate Wars, the family's lands were confiscated and it may be around that time that Moygara Castle began to fall into ruin. The later years of Ó Gadhra are unclear, although it is thought he was still alive at the time of the Restoration of 1660. One of his grandsons was Oliver O'Gara, an ardent Jacobite who, after the Treaty of Limerick, went into exile and joined the Irish Brigade in the French army.
This entry was posted in Architectural History, Castle, Irish Castle, Ruins, Sligo and tagged Architectural History, County Sligo, Irish Castle, Moygara Castle, Ruins.
← A Final Trace
Differing Fates I →


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Home » MSRI-UP » Schedules » Topology of positive zero sets of bivariate pentanomials
Topology of positive zero sets of bivariate pentanomials
MSRI-UP 2017: Solving Systems of Polynomial Equations June 24, 2017 - August 06, 2017
August 04, 2017 (01:45 PM PDT - 02:20 PM PDT)
Speaker(s): Malachi Alexander (California State University-Monterey Bay), Ashley De Luna (California State Polytechnic University), Christian McRoberts (Iowa State University)
Location: MSRI: Baker Board Room
Alexander, De Luna, McRoberts
A fundamental problem in many applications is determining the real solutions of a polynomial. In recent years, the A-discriminant variety of Gelfand, Kapranov and Zelevinsky has proved to be a valuable tool. Its complement over the real numbers defines regions of coefficient values called chambers. We implement an algorithm in MATLAB that draws A-discriminant curves for families of bivariate pentanomials where the topology of the underlying zero set is constant. Our program graphs the discriminant curve with all of its chambers and automatically computes the topology of all smooth zero set for the given families of bivariate pentanomials. We hope automated topology computation for high degree polynomials will prove useful for the algebraic geometry community.
H.264 Video Talk_5.mp4 1.53 GB video/mp4 rtsp://videos.msri.org/data/000/029/319/original/Talk_5.mp4 Download
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Counting the roots of a polynomial modulo p2 Date: August 04, 2017 8 views • over 2 years ago
Topology of positive zero sets of n-variate (n+4)-nomials Date: August 04, 2017 8 views • over 2 years ago
Mathematical Models of the Retina and In Silico Experiments: Shedding Light on Vision Loss Date: July 07, 2017 5 views • over 2 years ago
On the maximal number of roots of a trinomial over a prime field Date: August 04, 2017 5 views • over 2 years ago
Applying discriminant chambers to structured polynomials Date: August 04, 2017 5 views • over 2 years ago


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This degree is the first of its kind. The program equips students with both scientific knowledge and a deep understanding of plants. Graduates are prepared to enter the herbal products field directly, begin work as botanical medicine experts or pursue further education in related areas.
This degree equips students to pursue a range of professional degrees (naturopathic doctor, medical doctor, dentist, pharmacist), allied health degrees (physician's assistant, nurse, physical therapist) and graduate studies in biological sciences.
Length of Program: 2 years.
Campuses: Kenmore, Washington; available in San Diego, California in Fall 2018.
The bachelor's nutrition degree program provides students with a comprehensive education that merges the science of nutrition with a broader view of wellness, community and the environment.
Students enrolled in this bachelor's completion program – one of the first of its kind in the U.S. – receive an education grounded in whole food nutrition and food science while also developing culinary skills and the ability to use food therapeutically.
Students in this degree program build an in-depth knowledge of the body's physiology and mechanics, as well as an understanding of mind-body wellness and the role of nutrition in health.
Bastyr University's Simkin Center for Allied Birth Vocations offers multiple birth doula training courses throughout the year. Doulas provide physical, emotional and informational support to women and families during and after childbirth. The workshop is a prerequisite for Bastyr University's midwifery degree programs.
Length of workshop: four days.
Conducted through Bastyr University's Simkin Center for Allied Birth Professions, the Childbirth Educator Training is a comprehensive and engaging educational experience that prepares excellent prenatal educators.
Length of course: 3 days.
Expand your acupuncture practice with Bastyr's unique Chinese Herbal Medicine Certificate (CCHM). The CCHM curriculum enables students to gain skills and knowledge in the principles of Chinese herbology, including materia medica, formulations, prepared medicines, dispensary, herbal therapeutics and clinical training at the Chinese herbal medicine teaching clinic.
The dietetic internship is based upon the Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics (AND) eligibility requirements and accreditation standards and is designed to meet performance requirements for entry-level dietitians. Interns practice at the University's teaching clinic, Bastyr Center for Natural Health.
Length of Program: 10 months.
The Doctor of Acupuncture and Oriental Medicine (DAOM) degree is a regionally and professionally accredited clinical doctorate program developed for licensed acupuncturists to address the current trend of increased collaboration between acupuncturists, physicians and other health care providers. Length of Program: 2 years, full time.
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Vic's monoplane complete at Grange in 1910.
forks as undercarriage. I believe that the monoplane had been built elsewhere, and had been brought to Gosport by train (wings removed), and it's worth mentioning that, despite other aircraft managing to fly before this, Vic's plane is believed to have been the first to take off unassisted; previous successful flights having had the assistance of being towed, gravity, or being propelled into the air.
During 1909/10, Vic Hutfield teamed up with three other gentlemen to form the 'RAS Aeroplane Co, Gosport', using their names as the initials (Reader, Allen & Sheffield), and Vic Hutfield tried out his own-build monoplane at Grange. He also built the first aircraft hangar at the site in which to house his own aircraft; the roof of the early hangar was later used as a roof on his Brockhurst garage. The monoplane was ready for testing at Grange in July 1910. Several flights got off the ground but landings were rather unsuccessful, with Grange field being uneven, with potholes & puddles, and damage included breaking the propellor. After awaiting a new propellor for months, when it arrived it had been badly made, and couldn't be used. When finally a new propellor had been fitted, after much fiddling about, a young lad offered to fly the plane, and it flew for several hundred yards, probably because of the light weight of the lad, who later became Air Vice Marshall Lywood. Later in 1910, Vic decided not to do any more trials at Grange, and instead, put it on display in his garage at Brockhurst, and it was something of a success. He put it up for auction on 5th November 1910, asking '£600 or nearest offer'. The asking price included 'large new hangar, benches, vices, tools, with complete camp outfit for four persons', and 'free use of excellent flying ground with no extra expense'. The monoplane was know to be still in existence in 1964…… somewhere. Here's a bunch of relevant photos; credits to original photographer.
ALSO Today in Gosport's Past:- on 5 November 1860, John 'Jackie' Spencer (yes, 'tis he of 'Jackie Spencer's Bridge' fame), married Jane Blake at Andover parish church; Jane was six years older than Jackie, and like Jackie, was born in Andover.
Jackie Spencer was born in 1838, and in 1854, at the age of 16, he joined the new railway company at Andover in an unskilled capacity. Since Jackie's place of work had been transferred to Godalming, the pair of them set up home there; he was by then 22, and Jane was 28. They had a daughter, Ann, in 1864, and within three years, he had once again been transferred; this time to Alverstoke, where he held the position as the level crossing gatekeeper at Little Anglesey Road. The family lived in the gatekeeper's cottage, the address being both No.1 Railway Cottage and 7 Little Anglesey Road, where they lived until his retirement, presumably this was in 1903.
In 1867 Jane gave birth to a second daughter, Esther, who was christened at St Mary's church in Alverstoke. The gatekeeper's position at Little Anglesey Road was a fairly new post, as the Stokes Bay Railway had only been opened as recently as 6 April 1863; apart from his regular gatekeeping duties, he had been instructed by the railway company to do what was necessary to prevent local housewives from stealing the large chunks of chalk which formed much of the railway embankment to the north of Anglesey Viaduct, and to stop small boys chucking the chalk around. It would appear that he put much enthusiasm into this aspect of his work, which is probably why his name has lingered on.
In 1898 the viaduct itself was replaced by a single-span iron bridge carrying two railway tracks across Alver Creek; this bridge still remains today, and is widely known by locals as Jackie Spencer's Bridge, or the black bridge. The Stokes Bay Railway closed at the end of October 1915, and since the track was lifted (1922), the bridge has been a public right of way, and now forms part of the cycleway; in railway days a footbridge was attached to the bridge on the eastern side, connecting to the footpath leading to Clayhall Road. Although the footpath adjoining the bridge is long gone, the path from the beidge to Clayhall Road is still there today. Clayhall Road used to cross the railway over Clayhall Arch, a brick-built bridge which was demolished in 1960; the resulting rubble was used for the infilling of Stokes Bay moat.
The gatekeeper's cottage was situated immediately north of the level crossing in Little Anglesey Road, on the eastern side of the tracks. Upon his retirement (presumably in 1903), Jackie & Jane vacated the cottage and moved into the house of their daughter Ann's family home at 32 Park Road (now No.66). Ann had married George E Munday, a Royal Navy petty officer, in 1891, and they had made 32 Park Road their home. At the age of 22, Esther had married Walter James Munday (24), a carpenter & shipwright in Portsmouth Dockyard; he was the brother of George, so the two Spencer girls had married the two Munday brothers. Jackie died, aged 69, on Tuesday 7 May 1907 at 32 Park Road, with daughter Ann by his side. Cause of death would appear to have been a blood clot or a stroke. Following Jackie's death, his wife Jane was, for reasons unknown, sent to the nearby Alverstoke House of Industry – to whit:- the Workhouse. It looks like the family didn't get along… Jane died in the Workhouse in early April 1913, aged 80; she was buried in an unmarked grave next to her husband's similarly unmarked grave in Anns Hill Cemetery on 10 April 1913; daughter Ann & husband George Munday are also buried at Anns Hill Cemetery.


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There is a type of attack against our systems that can cause a lot of damage if missed or not addressed properly. More precisely, this could cause a major blow to the company's operations and potentially ruin the entire business.
The probability of such an attack is very low. Nonetheless it does happen to other companies in the field regularly (however rarely). It has not happened to our systems yet.
In order to be able to mitigate the attack, we must hire another employee and spend an additional 8% (at least) of our budget every year. Both of which are significant investments.
Usually we gauge such problems by multiplying the probability of occurrence by the expected damage, but in this case we are lost trying to multiply a number tending to zero by a number tending to infinity to come up with cohesive answer.
Along the same lines, our team in divided into two camps: one thinks that the attack will never happen and the investment of time and money will be wasted; the other camp thinks that the attack will come tomorrow. Everybody agrees, though, that half-assed measures will be both a waste of resources and will not protect against the attack – we either go all-in or don't bother at all.
As the team leader, I see merit in both opinions – we may operate for the next 20 years without encountering such an attack, and we might have it today (out of the blue, as it usually happens). But I still have to decide which way to proceed.
In that regard, I would like to ask you whether you encountered such puzzles and what is the industry's approach to dealing with them.
Now usually we gauged such problems by multiplying probability of occurrence by the expected damage, but in this case we are lost trying to multiply a number tending to zero by a number tending to infinity and come up with cohesive answer.
Unfortunately this is what you need to do in this case. But I don't believe that this calculation is really as difficult as you make it out to be.
The risk can be estimated by first estimating how many companies face the same security threat and don't take the necessary precautions. Then you skim the news reports to check how many companies get affected by it each year (plus an educated guess how many of them managed to prevent the mess from becoming public). Divide the second number by the first, and you have a risk percentage.
Your damage does not tend towards infinity. The event which would come closest to "infinite damage" would be a collapse of the entire time/space continuum of the universe (and even that's an event where you could make a fermi estimate to quantify the damage in dollars, if you are bored and interested in astrophysics). The highest damage you might be able to cause realistically is bankrupting your company. Maybe you could cause even more damage if you also account for damages caused to other people. But when your company is bankrupt, it can't pay those liabilities. So you can use the net worth of the company as the upper limit of your expected damage.
A warning that this response is coming from theory, not experience.
Are there ethical consequences regarding the impact of the bad event on others? Will it hurt your users? Also consider the employees of the company who may be hurt if it is ruined by an attack. If so, you may feel you have an ethical obligation to mitigate.
If you do mitigate the attack, can your company use this as a selling point or competitive advantage?
Insurance may not work if the damage will be to your company's reputation; insurance cannot really help you recover from this. It depends what form the damage takes, maybe insurance is a good option.
Maximizing expected monetary outcomes is not necessarily a good way to make decisions except in low-stakes problems. Suppose you could take a risk with a 99% chance of bankrupting the company, but 1% chance of multiplying its net worth by 200. "in expectation" you double the company's value, but you will almost certainly be out of a job.
Instead of expected value, maybe consider such objectives as long-term survival of the company. For instance, under the two options (mitigate or not), how long do you expect the company to be around? (a) If the company is struggling and an 8% budget increase is likely to bankrupt it, then you have no choice but to ignore the problem and hope you get lucky. If it survives this period and flourishes, you can invest at that point. (b) If the company is doing well, then it seems like it can afford to play things safe. (c) If somewhere in the middle, the decision from this perspective becomes difficult.
You should be taking into account the fact that your team knows about this attack vector.
If that's the case, your own team members are high on the list of opponents to worry about, and the probability of being attacked may be much higher than it would be if your team didn't know about it.
Employees can and often do become disgruntled. Take that into consideration.
You get insurance that would cover that risk. As it is very low-probability, it is hard to assess for you, so instead of creating individual insurance, you try having it rolled into insurance that covers more mundane risks. Basically you check what insurance you already have or probably need would be most likely to cover it, and if it doesn't, try negotiating an additional deal where it would come under coverage.
Insurance is about converting a lower summary risk (probability of event times monetary cost of mitigating the event) into a higher summary risk (probability of 1 times monetary cost of insurance) while converting a higher operational risk (probability of event times ultimate damages of all consequences of the occurence for the business) into a lower one (monetary cost of insurance).
This makes sense only for both insurance seller and buyer when the damage without mitigation is higher than the cost of mitigation, namely when the damage without mitigation would critically endanger continued business.
I would say that you are facing an inacceptable risk (could cause a major blow to the company's operations and potentially ruin the entire business) with a very low occurence.
My opinion is that you are in front of a strategic decision. As the team leader, your role is to pass the problem to your boss, along with its elements: what will happen if your organization suffers that attack, how many attacks have been seen in recent years, what are the possible mitigations for that attacks and what is their cost. When it comes to an important risk and an important cost, the decision normally belongs the main boss.
Your first step would be to make a proper, quantitative risk analysis. Other answers have already provided pointers here, I especially want to support the mentioning of "How to Measure Anything in Cybersecurity Risk", a brilliant book. You can also look towards FAIR as a quantitative method.
However, risk management doesn't start nor end with risk analysis. Especially for the "black swan" risks, other factors come into play. You cover these with defined risk appetite and risk criteria.
Your company needs to define its risk appetite, which states how it relates to risk at all (prefers to be conservative and avoid risks, prefers to be more aggressive and accept risks, etc.). This could define that risks beyond a certain impact are inacceptable even if their likelikood or frequency is low. Typically, risks that would certainly destroy the company fall into this category.
These are good candidates to mitigate via insurances, if possible. The "rare occurance but catastrophic impact" is the home territory of insurances.
The second definition you need is risk criteria which defines what kinds of risks that you are unwilling to accept for ethical reasons, reasons of legal liability or others. For example, you could define that risk to human life is inacceptable even if the quantification falls into the acceptable range. Or that a potential prison sentence for C-level executives is inacceptable no matter the quantified risk value.
For example, in the risk analysis I usually do, I employ a Monte Carlo method and one of my outputs is a scatterplot of all the scenario results. Any black swans will show up as individual (and rare) outliers, and I can identify them and see them in context.
In the end, especially for high-impact risks, you prepare the decision. Someone with the proper authority makes the decision based on your information, so your duty is to give them the whole picture without overloading them with information not vital to decision making.
One more remark about risk treatment. You may look beyond the analysis and check possible treatment options. If you can identify a treatment that dramatically changes on of your input values with a small effort, it might be well worth doing it for the purpose of bringing your camps closer together. For example, if there is a measure that would reduce the impact from catastrophic-company-destroying to serious-but-survivable, and you can turn your black swan into a regular high-impact risk.
Since many people have never seen a proper quantitative risk analysis, what you are looking for is something that takes not one value as an input, but a range and a shape parameter. PERT is one method - you identify the lowest reasonably likely value, the highest reasonably likely value and the most likely value. Also known as optimistic-realistic-pessimistic. Another approach is to explicitly specific a confidence value that shapes your curve. In a beta distribution this would be the lambda value.
Look at Fair-U for an example. I quite like the FAIR method, but there are others. Just don't accept less than a proper quantitative (sometimes called statistical) approach to solve these more tricky risk scenarios.
tl;dr: When it comes to a security vuln, high enough impact means it should be mitigated, no matter how low the probability. On top of that, that probability is not static, it is constantly, perhaps radically, increasing.
The book presents an extensive philosophical argument about why simple/common risk assessment tools such as your "Multiply probability by impact" are ill suited to assessing the risks posed by such extreme cases and lead to underassessment of risk.
Taleb encourages the minimization of exposure to high negative impact events, even if the probability of an event is vanishingly small, the right move is mitigating a potential catastrophe.
I like Taleb's ideas, and I believe he also mentioned cyber security and how companies were underestimating cyber risk in his addendum to this book, but here's my take as somebody with at least a passing interest in security.
If your company is vulnerable to a threat that is being actively exploited in the wild, the probability of that attack being turned on your organization grows geometrically with time. Attacks don't go away, they just get more sophisticated and easier to detect and automate. What requires some hands on thinking and manipulation by a smart cracker today is only a few years away from being automatically detected and exploited by a bot. That technological jump could happen overnight and you're pwned the next day.
All this is to say that unlike some unique 0-day in your application, the probability of attack in your situation is not a fixed number, its growing. Moreover, that probability is not going to be something growing at a steady rate, it can and likely make rapid leaps and bounds.
Depending on how many IT staff you have and what they do, hiring another employee could vastly increase the bus factor of your department. You wisely did not explain what you're doing in a public forum, but having another admin might allow you to introduce a two-man-rule on more of your procedures, or deal with planned or unplanned absences, and so on. So it might be incorrect to say dealing with this risk costs 8% plus one employee. It would be more like for 8% plus one employee, we can safeguard against this and many other risks.
Protect the data with whatever is industry standard or recommendation.
Inform your clients/customers/products that you are protecting the data they entrust you with by having faith that attackers will not attack your systems.
With this, you arrive at a simple conclusion: Protect your systems in such a way that you can tell your clients/customers/products the way you are protecting their data without having them stop being your clients/customers/products.
Any less than that and you're being deceitful towards your stakeholders (This may come as a surprise, but yes, your clients/customers/products whose data you are storing are stakeholders in your business - even regular people -, especially when it comes to the availability of that data to outsiders that those stakeholders might not want to have happen and you are responsible for making sure that data is adequately protected, lest you tell them you are using half measures in protecting their data when they submit it).
In addition to everything else: Do not be blinded by simple formulas that calculate your chances of being the target of an attack; The target of an attack is not chosen by random out of all the companies available for trying an attack on (naive statistical analysis would use this list to create the statistical chance of being attacked), but ends up being one (might also be ALL) from the list of companies vulnerable to the attack.
This can create an illusion that you don't have to bother protecting yourselves because the chance of being the target is so low, but in reality you're just putting yourselves in the risk group of vulnerable targets and you cannot possibly know your actual chances of being a target as companies do not exactly advertise their level of defenses (for obvious reasons). If this concept is hard to grasp, consider the following scenario: out of 100 companies, 1 company gets successfully attacked every year. Unbeknownst to you, 90 of these companies are using strong protections against attacks and attackers are simply leaving them alone after trying to attack them. Almost all of the successful attacks are against the remaining 10 companies who are using half measures. You as a newcomer to this scene will look at the statistics and determine that you don't need to protect your systems because there's only a 1/100 chance of your company being a target of an attack, when in reality your changes are 0 if you are using strong protections and 1 in 11 if you are using half measures. Your internal calculation of the risk would be complete rubbish.
TLDR; You cannot apply statistical analysis on whether you should protect your systems or not, because you do not have enough information to do so. You should do so in such a way that you can tell your stakeholders (that means making sure they understand it, not hiding the information from them) what you are doing to protect their data and they won't switch to another service provider.
As an engineer who's spent significant time on safety-related work, you probably want to look into FMEA. FMEA applies the "multiplication" method you describe, but it groups ranges of effect/probability/detection rates before doing the multiply. These ranges are well-defined, so assuming you've got some idea of these probabilities, you can get a reliable RPN score out of the system.
Of course, you still need to justify spending the money! But at least you've formally identified your risks.
I will give you a completely different answer.
I think you're assessing this completely wrong. I don't know how you came up with one risk/vulnerability requiring a fairly specific(and very large) monetary cost and FTE to manage, but this sounds like you are being sold on a specific tool to 'solve' a problem.
If the 8% cost is coming from knowing the cost of a tool's licensing, or the FTE is required to manage a tool (e.g. "our EDR guy")... I mean, there's no tool out there that will resolve a risk all on its own.
If the high cost is holding you back, rather than spending time trying to justify the risk as demanding the expenditure why not look into the root cause and how you can solve it with a lesser expenditure. EDR, DLP... there's no area of security(or vulnerability) that has one solution with one cost.
Industry approaches most of the 'Risk Control Investment' decisions with 'Quantitative Analysis' and the following are the standard way of approaching this analysis. The following table illustrates the matrices used during this decision-making process.
Let's assume your company sells mobile phones online and has suffered many denial-of service (DoS) attacks. Your company makes an average $30,000 profit per week, and a typical DoS attack lowers sales by 50%. You suffer seven DoS attacks on average per year. A DoS-mitigation service is available for a subscription fee of $15,000/month. You have tested this service and believe it will mitigate the attacks. The question is whether worth going for this service and mitigate the risk or accepting the risk and do nothing?
Since the ROI is negative (- $ 40,000 per year), you can recommend with facts on a decision of not to invest on the Risk Mitigation (this case Anti DDoS subscription) and to accept the risk.
Note: On practical scenario you may need to assess this with the impacts of other values as well (for example Brand Reputation Damage, etc).
Hence, on your case if you can identify the AV, EF, ARO, etc, you will be able to support your decision (at least approximately) with facts.
Even though for very low probability (Let's say for Floor risk ARO is 0.001), the impact could be very high ($ 10,000,000) and the ALE would be considerably high. If your mitigation control cost is less than this, you can proceed with your mitigation control deployment with facts.
• Do you not have the alternative of just (i.e. only) having a recovery plan and process in case the attack in question does happen — a backup, so to speak?
Having said that… from your wording it looks as though you can suffer an attack of this type without even knowing it, unless you spend money just to be able to detect it. …So maybe the foregoing is a void concept.
There is value, for your staff, in just having a person to take the responsibility for the dark unknown.
I would like to give a nod to Will Barnwell's answer (and the cited Nassim Taleb). Meaning absolutely no insult to "extensive philosophical argument//"… such are not necessarily correct. The issue for me is that it is easy to imagine that there might be two to three of these beasties within a few years, meaning that the cost of counter-measures rises from significant to crippling. Independently… if the risk can reasonably be expected to grow, then that changes the (given) parameters of the decision.
On the one side, we have the cost of the attack. As Philipp has observed, there is a maximum set by the value of the company; it would be misguided to spend $10m reconstructing a company that is worth only $1m. Unfortunately, this ignores the combined cost for the company's customers. Whereas it is not sensible for a $1m business to value a potential problem at more than its own value, it remains true that the significance of the issue could easily be (say) $50m.
On the other side, there is the size of the risk. Again, an accountant (so to speak) might simply find out how many companies there are that are vulnerable to the attack type in question, and how many of these have been hit in each of the last few years, and directly derive a likelihood of any one company being hit in a given year. A slightly more sophisticated version would include making an estimate of how many were hit and managed to keep it a secret — if this is reasonably possible. A yet more sophisticated version would work out how many of these companies were worth attacking… which may or may not include the question of whether or not they individually have taken counter-measures… except that that would be a secret… and is, to some degree of likelihood, known to an attacker.
Then there is the possibility that, on the one side, a clever, cheap defence might become available and, on the other side, that the attackers might be more or less motivated or numerous in five years, or might find a vulnerability in a subset of the possible targets, and so on. Further, it may come to light that some companies are being attacked in this or a similar way, and do not know it (and some might find out after the event, if ever).
Further, there is the cumulative risk. It is all very well to calculate the risk as an annual figure, if the risk is reasonably high and the question is about how much to spend on preventing and mitigating it. If, conversely, the effect would be apt to take out the entire company, then an annualised figure is of less significance.
The OP said that this type of attack is rare, but does happen. The whole reason OP has put up a question on this site is that it is not true that the risk is vanishingly small, and it is not true that the risk is high enough to take for granted.
Let us imagine that the company decides to do nothing. Let us assume, further, that this is objectively reasonable (to an ideal observer). If it is hit in a few years, the cost will be devastating for not only the company but indeed many of its customers (I take it). There is a risk of this, that is not vanishingly, and possibly not trivially, small.
Let us imagine, conversely, that the company decides to spend significant amounts of money on preventing and mitigating this attack, and again that this is reasonable. If it is not hit, ever, the cost (of prevention) is significant to very significant. There was a risk of being attacked, but it was very small, and the money looks very much like a significant loss.
Finally, there is the possible quasi-catch-22 that the attackers will see, and look elsewhere, if it has countermeasures, and the converse.
I might also note that receiving an insurance payout that is (say) equal to the (accounting) value of the business is not apt to fix the problem if the lifeblood of the business — data — is lost or otherwise compromised.
Simulation is a technique that can help build stronger intuitions about strategic questions where there is a significant amount of uncertainty.
Pick a set of distinct timeframes based on whatever the organization's decision making agility is. That is, if the org can make decisions on this issue on 3/6/12 month scopes, plan to run models for each of those timeframes.
Engage with peers to collect data that allow one to produce data for probability of occurrence within a specific timeframe, cost of mitigation, cost of impact.
One of the other answers describes a reasonable process to do this: get a list of peers, talk to them/study news to determine if/when they saw a similar attack, and learn what they spent to mitigate/avoid, or how much they spent on response and cost of impact.
There will be inherent problems with this data, but that's ok. Simulation helps work through those issues.
Use the data collected from peers to produce a range of probabilities, and ranges of costs of impact, and pick a specific probability and specific range.
Doing that randomization once is a trial. Rewire the spreadsheet so that you can run 10,000 or 100,000 trials, and collect and graph all of the results from those trials.
Repeat with different probabilities and impact ranges that reflect different interpretations of the peer collected data, and repeat for different timeframes.
At a certain point one just has to make a call, but deliberate simulation with visualization can illuminate assumptions and implications in ways that continually going around the room in discussion mode cannot.
If we re-phrase the problem slightly to state that if this occurs (and it seems like it might), you will be out of a job and to mitigate this problem means increasing the companies IT spend slightly, then I think the answer becomes a bit easier to come up with.
i.e. if I don't do this, and it occurs, I will be out of a job (possibly with reputation in tatters). If you do something about it, your company will have to pay a little more money.
Seems like a bit of a no-brainer to me.
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This story won't buck that trend. Lohr's piece was posted online last night and my post here follows by about 10 hours or so. One reason for this is that I slept through the night. Another is that I decided to actually read the study before posting.
The study — Meme-tracking and the Dynamics of the News Cycle, by Jure Leskovec, Lars Backstron and Jon Kleinberg — is fascinating work; though I'm not qualified to assess its math, I found it careful and thoughtful in its approach to the subject. But before its core finding coalesces into a hardened soundbite — "pros beat bloggers by 2.5 hours!" — I want to offer some cautions and raise some red flags.
Such phrases are sometimes proxies for real news but most often they're just part of the partisan slagfest. The memetracker study emphasizes the trivial at the expense of the substantive. In its world, if there's no brief quotation that sums up a particular story, the story doesn't exist.
Last fall, surely, the biggest story of all was the near-collapse of our financial system. In the study, this story is represented by a few phrases like "our entire economy is in danger" and "fundamentals of our economy are strong." While these phrases are reasonable ways to track the language the candidates used to discuss the crisis, they don't provide any hooks for understanding the extraordinary outpouring of explanation and analysis of an extremely complex story in both the mainstream media and the econo-blogosphere.
The researchers find that the news cycle is governed by two factors: "imitation" and "recency." In other words, phrases rise in prominence because media and blogs copy one another, and fall as individual phrases age. This is a useful model, but it leaves no room for valuing originality in coverage. (No surprise, since it's looking exclusively at quotations.) Both traditional news organizations and bloggers place great value on getting a story that no one else has, or expressing a point of view that can't be found anywhere else. Most of us — bloggers and pro journalists alike — assume that originality drives attention. But the memetracking research is biased against originality, and it simply excludes material that doesn't hang off the soundbite quotes of public figures, so it offers no help assessing whether we're right in that assumption.
One of the central argument of my book Say Everything is that blogs have enhanced our culture by extending the width and depth of public dialogue. But the memetracker researchers' focus on quoted phrases excludes such contributions.
As for that 2.5-hour lag: since the study focuses on quotations as a sort of genetic marker for ongoing news threads in election coverage, of course the traditional media are going to have the jump on bloggers. They're following the politicians around with microphones and notebooks. The study did find that, 3.5 percent of the time, phrases are injected into the news cycle first by blogs and then picked up by traditional news outlets. It's certainly possible that this pattern would be found to apply outside of election news, and with a wider set of stories than those defined by political quotations. But we don't know that.
Another limitation of the study: It misses the interplay between both traditional media and blogs on the one hand, and the two other vast channels through which soundbites propagate, cable news outlets and social networks like Twitter and Facebook.
Finally, the study relies on Google News to draw a boundary between the news media and blogs. A site that appears in Google News is considered media; everything else is a blog. While this approach is convenient, it ends up slicing off some of the top layer of the blogosphere in arbitrary ways: for instance, Gawker and Daily Kos end up as "media" rather than blogs, but Talking Points Memo is a blog.
Nonetheless, I fully expect to see it taken as conventional wisdom from this point forward that "news starts with the traditional media and then moves into the blogosphere." Perhaps the Memetracker folks can follow the phrase "2.5 hours" and show us exactly how that happens.
BONUS LINK: Chris Anderson outlines his research into the news cycle. Anderson took one story, followed it through the maze of coverage online and in print. It's what he calls a "qualitative" approach to complement the Memetracker study's quantitative work.
UPDATE/CORRECTION: I wrote above that Talking Points Memo would be considered a blog by the study because I couldn't find any posts from it on Google News, but Zach Seward at Nieman Lab did (here). I'm further confused by the study's description of the list of "early reporters" of many stories as being "blogs and independent media sites" including HotAir.com and Talking Points. This whole business of dividing the world between blogs and traditional media is, as Mark Glaser argues in the comments to Seward's piece, increasingly difficult to pursue or defend.
i don't trust mainstream media to write about research like this objectively. They are part of the story and should recuse themselves.
I think the media needs to get it's ducks in a row and deal in a meaningful way with this. They need to put their nose to the grindstone and come up with some new paradigms to run up the flagpole and see who salutes them.
Otherwise the perception of the medium as just the message with regards to traditional media and it's old school newsprint and 6 O'clock talking heads could become a tipping point.
Beam me up Scotty – I have met the enemy and he is us . . . . .
I didnt get that message from the story at all. It's not about who's beating whom. The study said that the trad media is slow to warm up to a story but then it quickly dies, whereas blogs grab a story early and stick with it as online discussion continues.
It seems to me that if done correctly the data would include BREAKING news because even if the trend is at it's origins it should eventually be counted as long as the data stream continues as the trend trends (if the breaker uses the same sound bite being counted).
Am I wrong? If so why?


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There is general agreement that nature is a master of lightweight construction. This does not apply, however, to the bones of vertebrates, if we assume that they are subject to flexion, which is characteristic of heavyweight construction. If we look at a match, we can see that its loading capacity is much greater along the axis than at right angles to it. The fractures and sprains of daily life also show us that flexion is not beneficial to the human extremities.
The entire support apparatus is rather to be understood as a cable tensioning device (rope latticing); i. e., the bones form a system of rods that are stressed purely on their axes, and only under pressure (compressed). This skeleton is braced by ligaments and muscles which act as tensile elements. Compression rods fail by buckling. The moment of buckling is equally great in all directions, which is why tubes are preferred.
The alignment of a rod depends on how it is braced. Thus we may assume that the interplay of muscle forces is individually predisposed, and that the bone accommodates itself to this in its development. In this way the growing bone is able to compensate for a rachitic deformation or an axial defect caused by a fracture.
Even Pauwels [1,2], the best-known advocate of the flexion theory, recognized that the development symphysis must place itself perpendicular to the incident force, as it would otherwise glide off. The assumption that bones bend results from the belief that the pelvis is supported by the two smaller gluteal muscles, the m. gluteus medius and the m. gluteus minimus, when a person stands on one leg. This is contradicted, however, by the experience that they are not perceptible as aching muscles even after the longest march (see also ). Please also note the editor's comment at the end of the article on page 92 !
As the respective side of the pelvis indeed feels hard to the touch when one is standing on one leg, something else must be stretched. One possibility is the iliotibial tract (Maissiat's ligament), and it is easy to determine by touching that the tension is equal from the ilial crest down to the knee.
If man has to lift a load very high he uses a tower crane. There are types with rigid jibs and types with movable jibs. The first type carries the counterweight on the counterjib, i. e., at the working level. With the second type (Fig. 1a), the counterweight is below, on the crane truck. A strong double cable stretches the weight jib via the counter jib ("power jib") back to the foot of the crane. Only the latter type is a true cable tensioning device, and thus the actual tower crane.
It is striking that the cables are much thinner than the compression rods (tower and jibs). The main reason is that the cables are not subject to buckling and are made of a much stronger steel. The tower and both jibs are constructed as normal latticing; the tension in this case runs via rods.
The counter jib is free of bending only when it lies in the bisector of the retaining cable. This is because the retaining cable is not attached to the counter jib, but runs over a sheave. The angle of the counter jib is set so that it forms the bisector of an angle when the weight jib is horizontal and its lever arm is at its longest. The flexion in the counter jib is transmitted to the tower because of the rigid coupling.
The tibia and the femur are rigidly connected, lie in one line, and form the tower up to the femoral neck attachment (Fig. 1b). The neck, which in its extension reaches to the center of the sacrum, unites with the pelvis and represents the weight jib. The trochanter major serves as the counter jib. The weight jib is stretched back by a retaining cable that, in its entirety, we call the tractus.
The intersection of the axes of the sacrum and the iliosacral joints ought to be the exact point of load induction; in reality, the body's center of gravity lies higher, in the lumbar spine. But in this case, the spine is assumed to be erect, and it is known that a force can be shifted along a line in any direction. The lower ankle joint was selected as the point of support, because as a joint it serves for movement in the frontal plane. The induced force G' equals the reaction of the support A (G' = total weight minus standing leg = 0.8 G).
The trochanter major works as a stationary sheave ("roller mound") over which the tractus glides. On a rope pulley the resulting compressive force adjusts itself as the bisector of an angle. The amount of force is determined by the radius of the trochanter (lever arm) in proportion to the distance between the neck attachment and the center of the pelvis (weight arm). For the purpose of illustration, we have chosen a relatively large radius; this gives a ration of 1:4. Thus the tractus must carry four times, the leg bones five times the body weight G'. The system has been developed as "statically determined". The forces of individual elements can be calculated both graphically and numerically. The graphic method offers the advantage that the direction of force is clearly recognizable and errors in design can be easily found.
It should be mentioned that a static system is usually calculated on the basis of the support. Each force value is entered on the figure. To illustrate the two-leg stance it is necessary to show the pattern only around the line of external forces, to halve the numerical values, and to replace G' with G'' = 0.6 G.


"NGO Center" civil society organization is currently implementing "Be aware and protect your life" project funded by the Czech Embassy in Armenia.
The goal of the project is to contribute to the more targeted implementation of the Corporate Social Responsibility Packages implemented by the Lori marz enterprises.
To contribute to the formation of active civic disposition through enhancement of public awareness level of environmental problems and rights.
To assist to the development of participatory environmental action plan in the affected communities.
Implementation of survey/desk study, field research, expert interviews/, data collection, data inputs. The respondents of survey will be LGB representatives,population of the 7 attracted communities of Lori Region, as well as the representatives of 3 mining companies responsible for CSRs.
Reporting preparation. 2.1 Providing with the reports to the targeted local, regional and national authorities and mining companies functioning in the attracted communities.
Public presentations of the survey results in 3 centralized communities providing high percentage of participation of all type of stakeholders. At least 25-35 paricipants in each presentation.
Documentary film screenings during the presentations highlighting the environmental issues in the target communities. Documentary film screenings is widely used by NGO Center as the way of solving critical issues, environmental problems, human rights, etc.
Debates after the presentations/screenings with the facilitation of the environmental experts.
"Open Space" conference with participation of all stakeholders. /Population of the attracted communities, Local Government Bodies of the target communities, Environmental CSOs in Armenia. National govenamantal bodies and represetnatives of the mining companies/. Open space format provides platform to discuss issues at the same time having opinions and position of all stacholdes and come to the one final conclusion by developing activity plan of solving the problem.
Finalizing of the environmental action plans developed during the Open Space and publishing.
Creation of network and establishment of dialogue among the stakeholders according to the developed enviranmental plans.


text:
Sianów est une gmina mixte du powiat de Koszalin, Poméranie occidentale, dans le nord-ouest de la Pologne. Son siège est la ville de Sianów, qui se situe environ  au nord-est de Koszalin et  au nord-est de la capitale régionale Szczecin.

La gmina couvre une superficie de  pour une population de  en 2016.

Géographie
Outre la ville de Sianów, la gmina inclut les villages de Bielkowo, Borowiec, Dąbrowa, Gorzebądz, Grabówko, Gracz, Iwięcino, Karnieszewice, Kędzierzyn, Kleszcze, Kłos, Kołzin, Kościerza, Krzykacz, Maszkowo, Mokre, Osieki, Płonka, Przytok, Ratajki, Rzepkowo, Sieciemin, Siecieminek, Sierakówko, Sierakowo Sławieńskie, Skibienko, Skibno, Skwierzynka, Sowieński Młyn, Sowno, Sucha Koszalińska, Suszka, Szczeglino, Szczeglino Nowe, Trawica, Węgorzewo Koszalińskie, Wierciszewo et Wonieść.

La gmina borde la ville de Koszalin et les gminy de Będzino, Darłowo, Malechowo, Manowo, Mielno et Polanów.

Notes et références

Liens internes
 Liste des gminy de Poméranie occidentale

Gmina dans la voïvodie de Poméranie-Occidentale
Powiat de Koszalin

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The production of acid demands for highest quality materials and precise slot widths for a failure-free process. That's why all our products for the acid-producing industry are acid-resistant stainless steels with the same high production quality customers are used to receive from ANDRITZ.
Nozzles ensure an optimum flow of media in chemical reactors and filters. Nozzles allow for a bigger filtration surface and make sure that the flow is evenly distributed. Their materials can be optimized to work in acid or abrasive processes.
A collector/distributor uses a header pipe or a hub to which several screen tubes are attached in order to enable excellent collection or distribution of a gas or a liquid within a medium without wall effects or channelling in order to maximize efficiency.
The support grid is a retention device for the catalyst and extends over the entire cross section of the vessel. The catalyst is chosen for its efficiency, its stability, and selectivity. The required volume of catalyst is referred to the bed and extends over a fixed height for a given reactor diameter. The catalyst can consist of different types of material with varying size and bulk density. The catalyst layers may extend into one bed or several beds in a multi-bed reactor in such a way that several support grids have to be installed in the same vessel.
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text:
Q: How to perform Neural Network modelling effectively? What should be the ratio of number of observations and number of variables?
How to detect overfitting in the neural network model and what are the ways to avoid overfitting?
If I want to perform classification with Neural Network, should the classes  have equal frequency?
Please help me out.

A: The advice I would give is as follows:

*

*Exhaust the possibilities of linear models (e.g. logistic regression) before going on to neural nets, especially if you have many features and not too many observations.  For many problems a Neural Net does not out-perform simple linear classifiers, and the only way to find out if your problem is in this category is to try it and see.

*Investigate kernel methods (e.g. Support Vector Machines (SVM), kernel logistic regression), Gaussian process models first.  In both cases over-fitting is effectively controlled by tuning a small number of hyper-parameters.  For kernel methods this is often performed by cross-validation, for Gaussian process models this is performed by maximising the marginal likelihood (also known as the Bayesian "evidence" for the model).  I have found it is much easier to get a reasonable model using these methods than with neural networks, as the means of avoiding over-fitting is so much more straightforward.

*If you really want to use a neural network, start with a (regularised) radial basis function network, rather than a feedforward Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) type network.

*If yo do use an MLP, then use regularisation.  If you do, it will be less sensitive to choices about architecture, such as optimising the number of hidden units.  Instead, all you have to do is choose a good value for the regularisation parameter.  MacKay's Bayesian "evidence framework" provides a good method for setting the regularisation parameter.  If you use regularisation, then the number of observations and number of variables becomes much less of an issue.
To detect over-fitting, simply perform cross-validation to test generalisation performance.
As for classes having equal frequencies, the thing to remember is that if you train a model with a balanced training set, but the classes are not balanced in the operational data, then the model is very likely to under-predict the minority class.  If you use a probabilistic classifier such as logistic regression or a neural network, you can always correct the estimated probabilities to account for that after training.  If your dataset is very imbalanced, I would recommend differential weighting of patterns from the positive and negative classes, with the weighting factors selected by cross-validation.
However, when the classes are very unbalanced, it is normally the case that false-negative and false-positive errors have difference costs (e.g. in medical screening tests a false-negative is much worse than a false-positive).  So often all you need to do is include the misclassification costs into the error function used to train the network.
If you are a MATLAB user (like me) I can strongly recommend the NETLAB software (Ian Nabney and Chris Bishop) or the software that goes with the book Gaussian Process for Machine Learning by Rasmussen and Williams.  I can else strongly recommend the book "Neural networks for pattern recognition" by Chris Bishop for anyone starting out in neural nets.  It is a brilliant book, and covers the material with great clarity and the minimum level of maths required to really understand what you are doing, and most of it is implemented in the NETLAB software (which may also run under Octave).
HTH
P.S. The best way of modelling with a neural net is probably to use a Bayesian approach based on Hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC), as developed by Radford Neal.  In general problems start in modelling when you try and optimise some parameters and you end up over-fitting.  The best solution is to never optimise anything and marginalise (integrate) over parameters instead.  Sadly this integration can't be performed analytically, so you need to use sampling based approaches instead.  However, this is (a) computationally expensive and (b) a bit of a "black art" and required deep understanding and experience.

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