As a refresher if you are reading this and you don't know me "in real life", I am from a large family and have five sisters. My oldest sister has kids, I, of course, have kids, but none of the "little girls" (the collective nickname for the set of sisters that are separated from my oldest sister and me by at least ten years or more) hadn't reached that milestone. Until this year! The fourth sister is expecting, due in April, and everyone is deliriously happy for her, she is made to be a mom.
So, that mandated a better than ordinary shower effort. I truly do put my heart into any party that I plan, but this one, well, I wanted it to be *special*. Which meant it caused me to completely freak out. I could NOT get my "vision" for the look to come together. I spent excessive amounts of time on Pinterest, and discussed it at length with the other sisters but I was still having a hard time getting it to come together.
We went with a National Park theme because, if you have ever checked out any of my other shower themes, you know I love to use the nursery decor as the jumping-off point for ideas. I love that many of the shower items can be re-used in the nursery, and it also helps to narrow down the billions of themes the Internet is happy to barrage you with. So, since she was doing a NP theme for the nursery (with colors of turquoise and orange) that dictated the shower theme.
Yeah. Not as easy as it sounds! I felt like we veered a tiny bit into "camping" but you can't hardly think of one without the other. That may be why it was so hard for me to channel inspiration, because I do *NOT* camp. But I do love a National Park, I can thank my Dad for that. He didn't come to the shower, but I know he really appreciated the theme and is proud that he instilled in all of us kids a deep appreciation for America's parks!
I frequently have to remind myself that when I am struggling with a party, I just need to do something. Crafting helps me to sort out what direction I want to take. The first piece I made for this shower was my favorite: a mobile. I crafted every little mountain and cloud with my own two hands. I love that the sun is the focal point, and helps to tie in the orange. I hung it in the middle of the circle of chairs. If you don't recognize the drab walls and enormous room from previous parties, it's the fellowship hall at our church. It's a beast to decorate, and I would know because I've done it a number of times! However, it is a great blank slate, and the best place to hold the 30+ women who attended.
Seriously, I think people are under the mis-impression that I have it all together. Nope. Wrong. I was literally gluing moss to the "L" (that's the baby's first initial) at 9:00 am. The shower was at 10:00 am. Yup. That's how I roll. I used the "vase-within-a-vase" technique for the tulips. The little jars have tea lights in them and they are from Hobby Lobby. I just added the brown ribbon for hanging. The outer vase was lined with these cool wood slices from Hobby Lobby that my oldest sister supplied. She also sent the pieces to put together the favors in the center.
The favors were easy-trail mix, of course! I created the labels with the Avery online label making software and printed them onto Avery label stickers. My oldest sister sent the bags (they are brown paper eco-friendly sandwich sacks, so cute!), we filled them with a serving of trail mix, closed them with washi and slapped the label on. My dear husband actually put them together after I made him a sample. The "yeti" pun was my own creation-I cannot resist the opportunity to be "pun-y"! Ha!
You can see it best in this photo but the "table cloths" are actually pieces of brown kraft wrapping paper from the Dollar Tree. My mom and daughter stamped them with the arrows to up the cute factor.
This printable is a riff that I did on one from Pinterest that I couldn't source. I loved the image of the lantern with the verse on it, so I found a similar graphic on PicMonkey.Find the printable at the bottom of the post.
These images are from old calendars that my sister bought at a discount. I loved the visual impact that gave, and they filled up a pretty decent chunk of space for cheap. That is always a win in my book!
Not the best photo of me. The guest of honor was as cute as a button, though! She hardly looks pregnant. However awful I may look, it still gives a better idea of the scale of the collage.
I like pulling furniture into this large space because it makes it feel less sterile. The stuffed animals are ones my sister has collected for the baby's room (She graciously lent me things she already had so that I wouldn't go over budget!) My oldest sister supplied the cute tree cut-outs, they are wood pieces with the bark left on. I made a garland with them and more of the log slices to form the baby's initials. The middle name is a secret, so I left that blank until after he is born. The arrows are from Hobby Lobby, I propped them up in a vase with rocks, the canvas from TJ Maxx. One of my sweet cousins made the origami forest and foxes (so cute!) and the lantern is an old VBS prop. The little trees I borrowed from my church. For a small church, we have a great selection of decor pieces.
The really cool NP canvas is actually my Dad's. It has a space for each park and he has stickers on all the ones he has visited. Fun! My expecting sister wanted to make the mountain garland, so as weird as it is for the guest of honor to make decorations, I couldn't turn her down. The moose head is a stuffed animal, the garland of mounted heads are clearance Target ornaments.
The tent is hilarious. I really wanted one, but couldn't find exactly what I was looking for. This is actually PVC pipes I found at the church rigged together and covered with orange plastic tablecloths. It is held together by hopes and prayers! Ha! It was a perfect place to put the gifts. The cool mountain backdrop was painted by another talented cousin. I have zero actual art ability. The trees were loaned from my aunt, and the bears are a fun story. My sister got one as child (maybe 3 years old?) and when she found out she was having a boy she found one on eBay and bought it so the baby would have a matching one. So sweet!
My mom handled all the food. (I cannot do both, no matter how hard I try.) and did a great job. She recreated these cute campfire cupcakes from Pinterest. My aunt made the cool food labels.
I looooved how this turned out. It is well over one hundred triangle punches I hot-glued to ribbon and hung in an ombre pattern on a branch from my aunt's yard. It served as the backdrop to the food table.
My mom provided the cute metal crate, the stuffed animals and the "Adventure" sign. They are all from Hobby Lobby.
I hand-sewed the teepee pillow, and created the printable in PicMonkey, again based on a Pinterest image (although that one did not have Scripture). Find the printable at the end of this post. The metal bin is from Hobby Lobby. The National Parks lantern is my brother's.
One of my sisters made the hedgehog cheese ball. So cute! The really fun part is that the baby's nickname is "Hedgehog" or "Hedgie" for short. So perfect, too.
This is one thing that I wished had photographed better. I used twine and tiny clothespins (from the Dollar Tree) to hang my sister's collection of WPA National Parks postcards. It was fun to see the one that I had sent her years ago! I was honored that she kept it.
My youngest sister came up with this adorable game based on one we played online. We set up a table covered with more wrapping paper and simply printed the instruction on it with Sharpie. We made a numbered list and encouraged people to add a children's song, book or movie title to it, but to substitute at least one of the words in the title with "Hedgehog" or "Hedgie". You could do this with any baby nickname, or any shower associated word. We told the guests to continue to add their entries during the party, and to initial them. We also said we would end the game at a undisclosed time. We had over 60 entries by the time we ended, and gave prizes to the last two on the list. It was a great way to keep people talking!
It was a really fun shower. We are just getting started in the "sister shower" department, though. Another wedding later this year, and I am guessing this is only the beginning of the babies...Not sad about that, for sure!
The printables! Please let me know if you have trouble printing them.
Right click on image to save. Print from saved location.
Hi! Do you have the printables up yet? Really needing them for a baby shower this weekend. So cute! Thanks.
Amber-I added them to the bottom of the post.I had forgotten all about them! You should be able to save them to your computer and print them. Please let me know if you can't get them to work. I hope your shower turns out wonderfully.


text:
This is a short story with the gang from Curiosity Killed Shaney, that I wrote for Crystal's Many Reviewers 3rd birthday celebration. It's Hudson's birthday and Shaney has a big surprise for him. Nothing could go wrong, right?
Shaney's Super Fantastic Surprise Birthday Spectacular
"Shaney, what's this super-secret meeting you dragged us into your mother's basement for all about." Todd, Shaney's best friend, frowned as he wiped a cobweb from his shoulder. His eyes widened. "Shit, was that a spider?" He spun around, trying to look at his back.
Dan, Shaney's former probation officer and supposed half-brother, stood behind Todd, silent as always. They still hadn't pulled their heads out of their asses and admitted they had it bad for one another. First, though, Todd had to get over Dan deceiving him—all of them.
Caleb sneezed. "Couldn't we have met somewhere…cleaner?" Shaney knew the nerdy sorcerer's neat-freak personality had been thrown into overdrive in the musty, cobweb-ridden basement. Even dust bunnies freaked Caleb out. Shaney grinned, imaging a Cadillac-sized dust bunny chasing Caleb as he screamed for the Dust Buster. One good bounce and that ball of dust would…
"Shaney!" Caleb snapped his fingers before Shaney's face. He so hated that. He was ready to tell Caleb he'd break his fingers if he did that again, but caught sight of Maximus, Caleb's truck-sized, ex-mercenary boyfriend, and resisted.
"Could you focus so we can get out of here before a big ass spider falls on one of us?" Maximus growled deep in his chest.
"What? Where?" Todd looked to the ceiling, eyes wide, covering his head with his hands. When Dan patted his shoulder, he seemed to relax slightly.
Shaney's pocket vibrated. Pulling out his phone, he noticed he had a message from Hudson. "Stop. Feeding. The. Bears."
Shit, four periods.
Hudson meant business. He sighed. He loved luring the bears to their property. They were so cute. Shaney typed back "okay" and added a heart. Pocketing his phone, he then raised his hands. Excitement strummed over his nerves. He was practically vibrating. This was going to be big.
"Tomorrow is Hudson's birthday, and I have planned a super, fantastic, surprise birthday party spectacular. The SFSBPS for short." He grinned, waiting for the excitement to spread through his friends. Everyone stared at him, their reactions not quite what he'd hoped for.
"That is why you dragged us into this pit of dust and mold. A birthday party?" Caleb glowered as he pushed his glasses up his nose.
"Not just a birthday party. A super, fantastic, surprise, birthday spectacular. The party to end all parties."
"Yeah, Shaney," Todd said as he actually stepped back. "You and parties aren't the best…I mean. You suck at giving parties."
Shaney put his hands on his hips. "Do not."
"Do too." Todd's hands went to his hips as well.
"One word," his ex-probe officer said. "Clowns."
Shaney opened his mouth then remembered those clowns and the smell of burning synthetic hair. Clowns screaming as flames shot from their wigs. He closed his mouth. "That was one party, and I'd just wanted their act to have more…sparkle."
Maximus snorted. "Your powers are bad news."
"You made it sparkle all right." Todd shook his head in disapproval.
Shaney sighed. "Listen. I just want to show Hudson how special he is. That I, we, appreciate everything he's done for us. I mean, Todd, he insisted you and Dan move into his house after Dan almost killed him."
Dan was motionless, no argument on his part.
"And you two are always there," he said to Caleb and Maximus. "How many times have you nearly blown up his house or set something on fire with a spell and he still lets you come back?"
Caleb huffed. "No more than you."
"Well, he loves me so I get a pass. And Max, you eat enough daily to feed a small village."
The corners of Max's lips curled down, his eyes narrowed.
"We owe Hudson a lot and we need to celebrate his birthday, show him we care…Or at least that we like him."
Todd dropped his hands to his side. "Shaney, it's not that we don't want to give Hudson a party, it's just that… We don't want you to plan it."
From the stern looks of his friends, Shaney knew he wasn't going to win. But that didn't mean he still couldn't plan a little surprise of his own.
Hudson hugged Shaney, his grip nearly cutting off his air. When Hudson released him, Shaney peered up into those beautiful brown eyes. The summer sun highlighted the gold flecks. "Are you surprised?"
Hudson grinned, looking at the guests gathered on his deck. "Definitely surprised. Thanks, baby."
Shaney pursed his lips. "I didn't have anything to do with planning the party. But it was my idea."
Hudson snorted. "Overruled by the safety committee, huh?"
"Yeah. Can you believe it?"
Hudson merely smiled. When Shaney was about to complain, he dove down for a kiss, a deep, mouth-exploring, ball-tingling, breath-stealing kiss. When Hudson pulled away, Shaney panted, and his legs wobbled.
"How about we ditch this party early, and I give you a present upstairs." Hudson nipped at his neck.
A shudder raced through Shaney.
Fuuuuck.
"Behave. We have guests. Now mingle and enjoy that party I didn't plan."
Hudson took Shaney's hand and led him to the cooler. When he offered Shaney a beer, he declined. Not only was he underage, but his mom was there with her new boyfriend…the Cop. The Cop had shifty eyes Shaney didn't trust.
Shaney spied his sister, Mary ,who was home from college. She talked with Todd who smiled and laughed, but was still pale and weak, the effects of being tethered to Dan, his life support system. Dutifully, Dan sat behind Todd.
Shaney was mildly impressed with the run-of-the-mill birthday party. Music, snacks, cake, drinks but nothing super, fantastic, or spectacular. Shaney looked to Hudson who chatted with the Cop. Hudson's eyes twinkled as he laughed. Hudson had a good heart. He deserved something better than a plain, old birthday party.
He deserved a super, fantastic, surprise birthday present. And he was going to get one.
Shaney focused on the natural energy in the earth. His hands tingled and then his arms, expanding to encompass his entire body. He grinned then shut off the music. Everyone looked to him. Caleb narrowed his eyes with suspicion. Todd lifted his brow in question. Hudson cocked his head.
"I want to thank you all for coming and celebrating Hudson's birthday." Hudson's eyes softened. "I also want to thank all of my friends for planning everything and making this party happen…even though they dissed me." He'd mumbled the last words under his breath.
"What?" Todd asked.
"Nothing." Shaney wiped his sweaty hands on his jeans. "While I wasn't able to contribute to this lovely, subdued party, I do have a special surprise for my boyfriend to show him how awesome I think he is."
"Shaney," Caleb said, the warning in his tone not missed.
"So without further ado, I bring you—"
"Shaney." Todd stood.
"Hudson's super, fantastic, surprise birthday present…or the SFSBP, as I like to call it."
Todd, Caleb and Max all came closer, probably ready to tackle him. Shaney had planned for that. Waving his hand around himself, he created a barrier of impenetrable energy.
"Take a gander at the Shaney force field, suckers."
Their eyes widened as they realized they couldn't get to him.
"Shaney!" Hudson's set his beer down and stomped toward him. Shaney closed his eyes, picturing in his mind the form he wanted. Energy crackled. Bright blue streaks flashed before his eyes. Turning inward, he focused on the energy of creation, the "gift" from his evil father.
Palms up he pointed to a spot on the deck in front of him. He opened his eyes. Everyone looked terrified, and/or pissed. They wouldn't be for long. As he released the energy, a bright blue ball hovered above the wood floor. Complex patterns flashed before Shaney's eyes, giving him the information to complete his task. In less than a minute, his present appeared.
Shaney grinned.
His mom and sister screeched.
Caleb scowled.
The Cop looked close to passing out.
Todd's eyes were wide, his gaze not wavering from Shaney's present.
Max said, "Fuck me."
Hudson was… His expression vacillated between awe, fear and anger. "Shaney, what did you do?"
Dropping the force field, Shaney knelt by his gift and ran his hands through the soft fur of the baby black bear. He was adorable.
"It's a fucking bear." Hudson's tone was flat.
Shaney grinned as the bear sniffed his chin. He was about the size of his mother's bulldog. He had the cutest round butt. The cub let out strangely human sounding noise. "Maaa, maaa."
"Awe he said mama."
"Shaney, you made a fucking bear." Todd continued to stay back as did everyone, including Hudson.
"I did it for Hudson, for you baby. You're always saying you want to pet the bears that. Come and pet him. He's so sweet."
Hudson moved forward as the bear continued to bleat. "What the hell are we supposed to do with a cub?" Hudson knelt warily then ran his hands over the black coat. A nervous smile crossed his lips. "So soft."
Shaney hadn't given any thought about what he'd do with the bear who continued to make the cutest noise. Maybe there was a nice mama bear who'd take him in.
The Cop stepped forward, eyes comically wide. "I know a bit about bears and that cub sounds like he's calling for his—" A roar filled the air and everyone jumped. "Mother."
The baby bear's bleats increased.
"Shaney, you idiot!" Caleb scrambled behind Max. "You can't create a life! All you did was transport the closest cub here!"
Chaos broke out as a large black bear rambled around the side of the house, heading right for the stairs to the deck. Shaney's heart pounded against his chest. Another roar and his fear threw up a force field around them.
"Let the bear go," the Cop said. "She'll take him and leave."
Hudson pushed on the bear, but it wouldn't budge. "Go on. Get going."
The cub scratched at the air desperate to get to his mother, who climbed the stairs and was only ten feet away. Shaney's was sure he stopped breathing as the bear reared up and stood on its back legs. Fuck, she was over six feet tall and had claws that could eviscerate a man with one swipe.
"Shaney, pull down the force field!" Caleb had practically climbed Max.
"Are you kidding? That bear will eat all of us!" Todd had actually pushed up against Dan.
Shaney was going to get them all killed. He had to do something, but he couldn't think past his terror seized brain.
"Shaney?" The voice was low, soothing, comforting. "Hey, look at me." Shaney could only focus on the big, rage-filled, mama bear. "Look at me."
Shaney expected to see that pissed off, disappointed expression Hudson got whenever Shaney had fucked up. Instead, Hudson's eyes were gentle, his mouth slack, his brow raised slightly.
"I'm sorry. I just wanted to…It doesn't matter." Shaney didn't have an excuse.
Hudson shook his head. "It does matter. You just wanted to give me something special and you have, although I could do without the deadly consequences. Thank you."
"Really. Now, I need you to do something else for me okay?"
Shaney nodded. His muscles came back under his control.
"We're all going to back into the house. I need you to keep the force field around us."
"The cub?"
"Will come with us, then we'll let it out the front door. Can you do that?"
He almost nodded but stopped. He'd made this mess. He'd clean it up. "Hold on."
He bent down and placed both arms under the cub's belly, then lifted the bear. "Shit." Weighed a ton for being so small. Shaney stumbled a bit but regained his balance.
"What're you doing?" Hudson went to reach for him, but Shaney had already shifted the energy.
"Shaney…What are you…" Hudson pushed against the wall of energy. "Let me out of here! "
"I've got this."
Everyone shouted at Shaney to stop. He blocked them out. Taking a deep breath, he turned to the bear who was back on all fours.
"It's okay, mama. I got your baby. He's okay." Shaney walked slowly toward the bear. The muscles in his arms burned and his back threatened to give out. The mama bear moved her head back and forth in agitation then started to back up as Shaney came closer.
"Shaney! Please stop!" Hudson sounded terrified.
"It's okay," Shaney yelled over his shoulder. "I've got my force field." He frowned but kept moving. He swallowed repeatedly as bile filled his throat. His body shook and his heart pounded in his ears.
The bear kept backing away, making her way down the stairs, her eyes intently on Shaney and her cub.
"That's it. Just get to the ground, and he's all yours."
Shaney followed at a safe, or not so safe, distance. After what seemed an eternity, the mama bear scooted back onto the grass. Reaching the bottom of the stairs, Shaney lowered the cub to the ground, never taking his eyes off the irritated bear.
"Okay, little guy, go back to your mama. Sorry I pulled you away from her. No harm, right? Don't come back some day and eat me because I traumatized you."
Shaney watched as the bleating cub ran to his mother and rubbed against her.
Please leave. Please leave.
When the bear roared, Shaney's entire body jerked. He was going to die. But the bear turned and lumbered back toward the woods, the cub running beside her. Not until they disappeared in the trees, did Shaney collapse back onto the stairs. He tried to catch his breath.
"Shaney!"
Footsteps pounded across the deck and down the stairs. He was hoisted into the air and squeezed tight.
"Jesus Christ, Shaney. I thought I was going to have a heart attack...again. Don't ever scare me like that."
Shaney's mother stood behind Hudson and shook her head, then grasped Shaney's hand for a moment. He could feel her shaking, but otherwise, for her, it was just another day of being Shaney's mom.
Loosening his grip, Hudson looked down on Shaney. "I really do appreciate the gift. I got to pet a bear."
"And almost got eaten by one," Todd said not being helpful.
Shaney scowled at him.
Hudson ran a hand down Shaney's cheek. "If you didn't have that force field, I would have keeled over."
Shaney grimaced.
Hudson furrowed his brow. "What?"
"Well…About that…"
Hudson narrowed his eyes.
Shaney wriggled from his grasp and smiled coyly. "Do you know how much I love you?"
Hudson reached for him, but Shaney jumped back.
"I may not have had enough power for my force field and the one around everyone else."
Shaney booked it to the lake, realizing how stupid that was since he was trapped. Hudson chased him, but Shaney saw the smile curling his lips. Shaney slowed and allowed Hudson to tackle him.
He laughed as they rolled on the ground and Hudson tickled him.
"S-stop!"
Hudson relented, and hovered over Shaney, who knew he'd been forgiven.
"Happy Birthday, baby. Your other present is between my legs." He guided Hudson's hand down to feel the new butt plug that would drive Hudson wild.
Hudson groaned. "Have I told you how much I loved you lately?"
Shaney sighed as Hudson kissed him. He was already planning for Hudson's Even Better Super Duper Fantastic Surprise Birthday Party Spectacular next year.
Check out Curiosity Killed Shaney
cover WFS 6-13-16
CuriosityKilledShaney_432

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


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Suppliers will be required to operate as Smart any DCC-enrolled SMETS1 device installed at their customers' premises, regardless of whether it was installed by the current supplier or a previous supplier.
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Home / Shop / History & Archaeology / The Decline of the West – Oswald Spengler (2 vols)
The Decline of the West – Oswald Spengler (2 vols)
Title: The Decline of the West
Author: Oswald Spengler, Charles Francis Atkinson (trans)
Publisher: Alfred A. Knopf, 1988. 2 vols.
Condition: Hardcover, with dust jacket. Near fine. Small tear to the bottom of title page on vol 1. Previous owner's blindstamp to title pages on both volumes. No other defect. Deckle edges.
SKU: spengler-decline Categories: History & Archaeology, Philosophy, All Rare Books Tag: Gift Ideas
About the book (from Wikipedia):
The Decline of the West (German: Der Untergang des Abendlandes), or The Downfall of the Occident, is a two-volume work by Oswald Spengler, the first volume of which was published in the summer of 1918. Spengler revised this volume in 1922 and published the second volume, subtitled Perspectives of World History, in 1923.
The book introduces itself as a "Copernican overturning" operating as a paradigm shift involving the rejection of the Eurocentric view of history, especially the division of history into the linear "ancient-medieval-modern" rubric. According to Spengler, the meaningful units for history are not epochs but whole cultures which evolve as organisms. He recognizes eight high cultures: Babylonian, Egyptian, Chinese, Indian, Mesoamerican (Mayan/Aztec), Classical (Greek/Roman), Arabian, Western or "European-American." Cultures have a lifespan of about a thousand years. The final stage of each culture is, in his word use, a "civilization".
Spengler also presents the idea of Muslims, Jews and Christians, as well as their Persian and Semitic forebears, being Magian; Mediterranean cultures of the antiquity such as Ancient Greece and Rome being Apollonian; and the modern Westerners being Faustian.
According to Spengler, the Western world is ending and we are witnessing the last season—"winter time"—of the Faustian Civilization. In Spengler's depiction, Western Man is a proud but tragic figure because, while he strives and creates, he secretly knows the actual goal will never be reached.
About the author (from Wikipedia):
Oswald Arnold Gottfried Spengler (29 May 1880 – 8 May 1936) was a German historian and philosopher of history whose interests included mathematics, science, and art. He is best known for his book The Decline of the West (Der Untergang des Abendlandes), published in 1918 and 1922, covering all of world history. Spengler's civilization model postulates that any civilization is a superorganism with a limited and predictable lifespan.
He wrote extensively throughout World War I and the interwar period, and supported German hegemony in Europe. His other writings made little impact outside Germany. In 1920 Spengler produced Prussiandom and Socialism (Preußentum und Sozialismus), which argued for an organic, nationalist brand of non-Marxist socialism and authoritarianism. Some Nazis, including Joseph Goebbels, saw Spengler as an intellectual precursor, but he was ultimately ostracized by the Nazis in 1933 for his pessimism about the future of Germany and Europe, his refusal to support the Nazi ideas of racial superiority, and his critical work The Hour of Decision.
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WiMax broadband provider teams up with satellite companies DirecTV and EchoStar to offer a bundle of broadband, TV and voice services.
Satellite providers DirecTV and EchoStar Communications said on Thursday that they are teaming up with WiMax operator Clearwire to deliver wireless broadband services.
Clearwire, which was founded by mobile-industry billionaire Craig McCaw, delivers WiMax broadband services to fixed locations. DirecTV and EchoStar hope to use Clearwire's network to provide broadband services in addition to their satellite TV services.
Financial details of the deal weren't released. But Clearwire, which raised $900 million in venture funding last year and went public this year, is burning through money quickly. So it makes sense for the company to look for partners that might be able to help it continue to build its network. Since Clearwire's initial public offering in March, the stock has lost roughly 20 percent of its value.
Clearwire uses WiMax, a packet technology, to deliver its service. WiMax can deliver signals more than a mile in some suburban areas, with peak data rates of about 20 megabits per second. Average user data rates fall between 2Mbps and 8Mbps. Data rates for the next-stage 3G cellular service--sometimes called 3.5G--are about 3Mbps.
The WiMax Forum, the industry group that promotes the technology, has almost completed the necessary certification requirements for new products, another major step that could help push deployment. The technology also has the foundation for a strong ecosystem, thanks to support from handset and infrastructure makers such as Motorola, Samsung Electronics and Nokia, as well as from chipmaker Intel.
These companies are all expected to have WiMax products in the market sometime this year.
Clearwire operates in 39 U.S. markets and, as of March, has been serving fewer than 100,000 subscribers. The deal with DirecTV and EchoStar should help the company broaden its customer base.
"By expanding the reach of our services through DirecTV and EchoStar, and by incorporating direct-to-home satellite video services in our own distribution channels, we believe we have an opportunity to significantly expand our business opportunity," Perry Satterlee, Clearwire president and chief operations officer, said in a statement.
The satellite companies will also benefit. Through this deal, DirecTV and EchoStar will be able to compete more directly with cable operators and telephone companies that are offering high-speed Internet access plus TV service.
Last year, satellite operators had hoped to win some wireless spectrum in the FCC's Advanced Wireless Spectrum auction. But the companies exited the auction early, without winning any spectrum licenses.
"Being able to offer services on the Clearwire network will give our customers another high-quality option to subscribe to broadband services with DirecTV's video offerings," Bruce Churchill, president of new enterprises at DirecTV, said in a statement.
Sprint Nextel is the only other operator building out a nationwide WiMax network. The carrier plans to spend $2.75 billion to build this 4G network, which it plans to have up and running in 19 cities by the end of 2008.
But as Sprint struggles to retain customers, the company may be looking for alternative-funding sources for its WiMax network. The Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday that the wireless operator is in talks with Clearwire to combine efforts in building out a nationwide WiMax network.


G-land Surf report today, you can read the thoughts of yesterday and just change NONE to virtually zero mph and noon began to crawl up into position 7 mph…. 3-4ft deep and happier to be able to stay the same! Today we have the classical condition. But I feel the need to be realistic and clear picture that I paint … not every wave is a classic. These days do not happen often, but there is still time before the wind goes wrong.
What I mean by classic is a mixture of these three basic G-land Surf Forecast conditions, swell, wind and tide. They all come together and give our people the old tree wall of money that allows you to float for a few seconds at high line.


text:
Brooklyn Bridge and New York City Waterfalls art project by Danish artist Olafur Eliasson at dusk New York USA
- Image ID: B65YT8
AlanHaynes.com / Alamy Stock Photo
Image ID: B65YT8
The New York City Waterfalls, a major work of public art by artist Olafur Eliasson, opened June 26, 2008 and closed on October 13, 2008. The exhibition of four man-made waterfalls were on view from the shores of the New York waterfront. This installation is on the Brooklyn side of the Brooklyn Bridge which spans the East River from Manhattan to Brooklyn.
Location: Manhattan, New York, USA
american, artificial, artist, attractions, bridge, brooklyn, dusk, east, eliasson, famous, j1009a4391, landmark, manhattan, man-made, new, ny, olafur, river, sightseeing, sundown, sunset, suspension, temporary, tourism, tourist, travel, waterfalls, york
Brooklyn Bridge in New York City.
Brooklyn Bridge New York City Dusk
Brooklyn Bridge, New York City close up architectural detail
Panorama of Brooklyn Bridge and New York City (Lower Manhattan) with lights and reflections at dusk, USA
Brooklyn Bridge with the New York City skyline in the background, photographed at sunset.
Brooklyn Bridge New York City close up architectural detail
Brooklyn Bridge, New York City, nobody
Beautiful night view of the Brooklyn Bridge looking towards Manhattan New York City
Brooklyn Bridge tower, in Black & White, with double gothic arches and symmetrical suspension cables, New York City
New York City, USA, early in the morning on the famous Brooklyn Bridge
The Brooklyn Bridge in New York City is one of the oldest suspension bridges in the United States
Retro stylized picture of the Brooklyn Bridge, New York City,USA.


text:
Q: Can a class contain as a member a Base class which is later specialized to a Derived class? Can I have a class ("BIG") which has another class as a member (of type "Base"), so that upon construction, this "Base" member will actually be set to a derived class?
In particular, I want to have
class Base{
  public:
    void dostuff(){};
};

class DerivedA : public Base{
  public:
    void dostuff(){
     //implementation version A
    }
};

class DerivedB : public Base{
  public:
    void dostuff(){
     //implementation version B
    }
};

class BIG{
 Base mything;

 BIG(int Type){
  if (Type==0)
   mything=DerivedA();
  if (Type==1)
   mything=DerivedB();
 }
};

Does C++ not allow this.  In particular, I would be "Downcasting" mything from a Base to a DerivedA or a DerivedB.  Am I correct that Downcasting is only allowed from Base pointers to Derived pointers, and only when the Base pointer is actually already a pointer to a Derived class?

A: First, you probably forgot to actually derive from Base. But anyway, polymorphism requires a pointer or a reference. Otherwise, assigning an object of a derived class to a variable of the base class' type will "slice" the derived class object, i.e. it will cut a base class object out of the derived class object:
class Base{
  public:
    virtual void dostuff(){ cout << "in base" << endl; };
};

class DerivedA : public Base {
  public:
    virtual void dostuff(){ cout << "in derived" << endl; };
};

int main() {

  Base mything = DerivedA();  // slicing, will result in a `Base`-object
  mything.dostuff(); // Base class implementation

  Base *polymorph = new DerivedA(); // polymorphic; will point to a DerivedA-instance
  polymorph->dostuff(); // DerivedA class implementation of dostuff

}

A: Yes, this is possible, but mything must be a pointer or a reference to a polymorphic object.  If you keep it as a plain object, you would have slicing.
class BIG{
    Base *mything;

public:
    BIG(int Type){
        if (Type==0)
           mything = new DerivedA();
        else if (Type==1)
           mything = new DerivedB();
    }
};

Of course, this suppose that both DerivedA and DerivedB inherit publicly from Base. If you want the right dostuff() function to be called, you also need to make it virtual (this is not specific to your problem, but to polymorphic classes), as well as have a virtual destructor.
Finally, you'd need to take care of the rule of 3 if you don't want to suffer from nasty allocation/deallocation errors.  A more convenient alterative is therefore to use a smart pointer instead of a raw pointer and let the smart pointer take care of copies, and destruction.
Comment: it's a question of style which is irrelevant here, but try to take the good habits and avoid an all cap class name ;-)

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


text:
Ludwig Robert Müller (ur. 24 kwietnia 1870 w Augsburgu, zm. 8 września 1962 w Erlangen) – niemiecki lekarz internista znany jako pionier badań nad autonomicznym układem nerwowym.

Pochodził z rodziny o tradycjach lekarskich: jego dziadek i ojciec byli lekarzami, brat Friedrich von Müller był profesorem medycyny wewnętrznej w Monachium. Ludwig Robert Müller studiował chemię na Uniwersytecie Ludwika i Maksymiliana w Monachium, potem medycynę na uniwersytetach w Tybindze, Monachium, Wrocławiu, Straßburgu i Paryżu; prawo wykonywania zawodu otrzymał w 1893 roku. W 1898 habilitował się pod kierunkiem Adolfa von Strümplla. W 1903 roku został następcą ojca na stanowisku ordynatora oddziału wewnętrznego szpitala miejskiego w Augsburgu. W 1914 został mianowany profesorem chorób wewnętrznych na Uniwersytecie Juliusza i Maksymiliana w Würzburgu. W latach 1915–1917 jako lekarz wojskowy przebywał w lazaretach w Paryżu i Konstantynopolu.

W 1920 roku ukazała się zredagowana przez Müllera klasyczna monografia poświęcona wegetatywnemu układowi nerwowemu. W kolejnych latach ukazały się jej kolejne wydania. W latach 40. wydał dwie monografie poświęcone zagadnieniu snu. W 1957 opublikował wspomnienia.

Wybrane prace
 Beitrag zur pathologischen Anatomie der Tumoren des Rückenmarks und seiner Häute. 1895
 Klinische Beiträge zur Physiologie des sympathischen Nervensystems. Vogel, 1907
 Beitrag zur Psychologie der Türken. Kabitzsch, 1918
 Das vegetative Nervensystem. Springer, 1920
 Bericht über die Malaria in der Türkei im Jahre 1916: im Juli 1917 zum Druck gegeben, von der militärischen Zensur zurückgehalten. Barth, 1919
 Über die Altersschätzung bei Menschen. J. Springer, 1922
 Über die Seelenverfassung der Sterbenden. Springer, 1931
 Lebenserinnerungen. Beck, 1957

Bibliografia

 Deutsche biographische Enzyklopädie (DBE), Band 7.  s. 276

Absolwenci i studenci Uniwersytetu w Strasburgu
Absolwenci i studenci Uniwersytetu w Tybindze
Niemieccy lekarze
Urodzeni w 1870
Zmarli w 1962

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If you wanted an wiggly phone? then you are going to have to wait because the upcoming phones that might be comming to the market are oing to be more like a curve than an actual wiggly piece of glass.
If Samsung's reveal of a forthcoming smartphone with a curved screen sends shivers down your spine and visions of bendable handsets dancing through your head, you may want to rein in your excitement.
While Samsung (and LG and Nokia and Apple) are all experimenting with kinetic displays that move when you bend them, you should prepare yourself for this phone to feature a contoured display instead.
The difference? A screen whose glass topper has been molded in a subtle stationary arc, rather than one you can wiggle.
There's very definitely a precedent for curved displays that give your phone face a slight smile. Samsung's own Galaxy Nexus S had one, and so does the in-development YotaPhone, which uses formed Gorilla Glass 3 as its cover glass material.
Since Samsung already knows how to do shallow screen contours, it's likely that this new device, slated for an October unveiling, will return to the theme of fitting its face to your cheek. In addition to curved displays being more comfortable to hold up to your ear for longer conversation (yes, some of us still do that), the design also serves an aesthetic purpose of standing out among competitors, and encouraging more contours in other parts of the phone. In other words: no more boring box of a phone.


In standard macroeconomic models, GDP is GDP and an industry is important only to the extent that it produces GDP. In other words, there are big industries and small industries but there are no special industries. The standard view implies that the structure of production can be ignored. It doesn't matter, for example, whether an industry sells to final consumers or to other businesses. It doesn't matter whether an industry sells an easy-to-substitute product or a hard-to-substitute product. And it doesn't matter whether an industry is a weak-tie link or a strong-tie link. Thus, in the standard view, the oil industry is no more important for understanding economic fluctuations than say the retail sales industry, since they are about the same size.
The standard view isn't arbitrary, Hulten proved that it was true under certain assumptions. Hulten's theorem appeared to offer a very useful simplification and so it diverted the attention of economists away from trying to model the structure of production.
But I've always been skeptical. One reason is that rapid increases in the price of oil have preceded almost all U.S. recessions (see Hamilton's papers) and such increases appear to be much more important than the size of the oil sector would allow. More generally, although the canonical real business cycle model emphasizes aggregate technology shocks, I've always looked favorably on variations with sectoral shocks–this is one reason why Modern Principles is one of the few principles of economics textbooks to devote significant attention to real shocks, including oil shocks, and the mechanisms that can transmit and amplify these shocks from one sector to the wider economy.
The sectoral approach gets new support in a recent paper, The Macroeconomic Impact of Microeconomic Shocks: Beyond Hulten's Theorem (non-gated) by Baqaee and Farhi. The authors show that Hulten's theorem offers a true simplification only under very restrictive conditions. Relax those conditions and what seem like second-order mechanisms can have first-order effects. The structure of production–how industries are linked to one another, elasticities of substitution, reallocation speeds and so forth–matters in theory.
…It turns out that for a large negative shock, the "oil and gas" industry produces the largest negative response in GDP – this despite the fact that the oil and gas industry is not the largest industry in the economy.
Hulten's simplification came at too high a price. Further progress in understanding business fluctuations will come from developing microeconomic foundations to macroeconomics–not simply by subjecting a utility-maximizing representative agent to an optimization problem but by investigating the real structure of production in all of its complexity.
Is there another discipline that has done better work than económics for our understanding of the economy? Economic sociólogy? Economic history? Industrial history?
Should i look around in French for this literature? histories of Embraer in Portuguese? Should i learn Germán, or some E. Asían languages?
The problem with this approach isn't so much the calibration method but the fact that the paper he cites used a discontinuity regression approach.
@Dots: Yes, economic history, and mercantilist theory in general have always argued that all sectors are not created equal. Don't know about the French literature, but google Friedrich List. Also, Alexander Hamilton's "Report on Manufactures" argued that the manufacturing sector is especially important for a country's economy.
I would argue that the subfield of economics known as "descriptive economics" is underdeveloped relative to its usefulness.
Lawyers and business school professors and business journalists at least have tools like a solid understanding of how the underlying business transactions work and an understanding of how complex economic enterprises are actually conducted (along with the conventional wisdom in those industries about how the economy works) which is a prerequisite to doing good work understanding the structure of the economy. This is something that economists tend to be embarrassingly uninformed about, as too many of them deal with the economy only at an abstract and theoretically driven mathematical model level.
Within economics, the folks who do econometric models, especially in microeconomic disciplines, probably have the firmest understanding of how the real economy, as opposed to the toy models that most economists prefer, actually works.
Economists are like biologists who understand DNA but taxonomy.
Didn't we call this, in the merry days before DSGE models (which treat GDP, wronglym as a top down governed homogenous lump of 'something' instead as of the ever changing bottom up hodgepodge which it really is) and using input output analyses, 'backward and forward linkages'?
Nice summary, Alex. Indeed seems like an important issue. One barrier will be, how many sectors do you include exactly to make the model tractable in a macro framework....Well, let's let the GMU and Minnesota grad students write some dissertations on this.
Not to disagree with Tabarrok, but the biggest oil shock, the oil crisis (embargo) in 1973, affected behavior as much as or more than the macro-economy (the macro-economy was definitely affected, but as the result of behavior rather than the embargo itself). I appreciate that behavior is difficult if not impossible to separate from the direct economic impact of the embargo, but having lived through the crisis my observation is that it significantly altered behavior. One should also remember that the price of oil before the embargo was only $20 a barrel as opposed to the "depressed" price of a little under $60 per barrel today, which is higher than the price reached at the height of the embargo (these are inflation-adjusted figures). "Let us do what is evil so that good may come" has special significance for the oil crisis, as it greatly increased efforts to find alternative sources of energy and greatly increased the energy efficiency of industry, housing, and transportation, which in combination greatly increased macro-economic output.
I remember in 2008 arguing with twats like Megan McGargle that the big spike in oil prices was going to crater the American economy. I am no genius or oracle but my argument at the time was if you raised taxes on everyone by a few thousand dollars a year wouldn't you expect a contraction?
Anyways good to see Alex post something that agrees with empirical evidence. Useful post.
Oil prices brought down Bear Sterns and Lehman Brothers?
People who couldn't afford to drive to work stopped making their house payments. Also, increase in fuel entailed a decrease in foreign investment in US debt instruments as foreigners reallocated investment monies into oil purchases. So the trade deficit was also involved.
But those in the oil industry get that money.
Most of what you pay for a gallon of gasoline goes to a government somewhere.
To appreciate how much has changed, before the 1973 oil crisis gas sold for less than 30 cents per gallon, which was a good thing because cars (my car anyway) got only 6-8 miles per gallon. I would buy one or two dollars of gas at a time, the gas pumped by the guy who worked at the gas station (who would check the oil, the fluid in the radiator, and the air pressure in the tires) not by the customer because there was no such thing as self-service. A stroke of luck for me, a year or two before the oil crisis I sold my gas guzzler (a Pontiac GTO) and bought a Datsun (n/k/a Nissan), which was more like a go-cart with doors than a car. American cars back then were terrible, which is why people traded so frequently. I paid less than $2,000 for my brand-new Datsun. But that price didn't include an air conditioner because Datsun didn't offer cars with factory-installed air conditioners.
Busch Beer sold for 89 cents a six back. Plus the deposit (it was sold in returnable bottles). For someone in my financial position at the time, the returnable bottles were a form of savings: when short of gas money, I would return the bottles for a refund of the deposit so I could buy a dollar or two of gas. I was a very good saver back then. I made Tabarrok and Cowen proud.
...I wore an onion on my belt, which was the style of the time.
There was a time, the late 1990s into the early aughties that I thought the Fed should leave economic policy to the oil industry. It seemed that when the economy heated, oil prices rose and served as a break. When the economy pulled back, oil prices dropped and the economy could move forward again. Maybe I was right and oil is a better modulator of the economy than the Fed.
I thought the purpose of the 1913 Federal Reserve Act was to mitigate or abolish the business cycle.
Alternatively, it has been said that copper is the commodity with a PhD in economics.
Are you saying we might even put the dollar on the oil standard?
What I find appalling is how many economists think that the only thing with knowing about the macro-economy is how the money supply, and interest rates as influenced by federal reserve policy, influences the business cycle. This is one small story in the big picture, but it isn't the more important or the only thing worth knowing about the macroeconomy.
For example, there is an important story to about told about how, during the Great Recession, the collapse of a couple of key state housing bubbles driven by bad state foreclosure laws upset the entire mortgage backed securities market which reached a tipping point that led to a crisis in the entire financial system that in turn hurt unrelated industries like manufacturing in places remote from the housing bubbles that started it all. Bad foreclosure laws in California through a chain reaction effect, damages a swath of small factory owners in Tennessee.
These stories, which are true ones, can only be understood in the context of a world view nuanced enough to understand the more important strands that link different sectors of the economy and an awareness of where the weak links in the chain are located. For example, I remembers sitting in my securities law class in 1993 thinking to myself - the entire bond market depends almost entirely upon a handful of lightly regulated judgment proof bond rating agencies with very little skin in the game accurately assigning credit ratings to fixed income securities, and that if that link failed to perform (as it seemed very vulnerable to doing) that these firms' bad judgment could take down the whole financial sector. And, fifteen years later, in 2008, this is exactly what happened.
Of course, knowing this as a young law student and as a newly minted medium sized law firm lawyer far from the nation's financial centers, provided very little opportunity to do anything about this knowledge for good or ill, for either myself or my clients.
Nice summary, Alex. I'm not an economist, but it would seem that not only structure but context should matter a great deal, especially for a sector like oil an gas. Oil and gas is traded on markets, used in transportation and energy, and utilized in the production of raw materials. Add in the politics in the US that surround its production - ANWAR, Keystone Pipeline, competition with petro-states - and it would appear rational that oil and gas GDP isn't on the same footing as other sectors.
Of course, you could probably point to every other sector and find just as much complexity!
Oil is more than a sector, though. It is energy, and thus fundamental to all substitution of labor with machine.
Seems pretty obvious to me, conventional wisdom even. Also, energy is less fundamental than it was 40 years ago.
Yes, reduced energy intensity has been a great benefit.
It looks like personal transportation is about 45 percent of total U.S. oil consumption.
"It looks like personal transportation is about 45 percent of total U.S. oil consumption."
This sounds low to me. The only places that oil is used in any significant way to produce electricity are Hawaii and Alaska. The only place that oil is used by households for purposes other than personal transportation is in the Northeast where it is used for heating oil (and the oil they use is a low quality heavy oil component relative to the component of oil used for transportation fuel which has mostly shorter carbon chains than heating oil). Plastics, fertilizers and airplane fuel are pretty tiny shares of the total oil pie. And, industrial oil consumption (along with industrial coal consumption) has declined steadily for decades. Motor vehicles (mostly cars and trucks) are the predominant users of oil today.
The only way I can see that you get to 45% on personal transportation, is if most of the rest of "business transportation" involving functionally identical cars and trucks and construction vehicles running on gasoline and diesel as well.
Ok, a more serious answer, and not to go all peak oily on you ..
Forbes says that a barrel of oil contains about the same amount of energy as a human would expend in calories in 11 years of manual labor.
Per your link, that 37% represents 18,690,000 barrels per day.
That is a lot of human equivalent labor, 205,590,000 years? compressed into every day.
Shortage or price increase has to hurt.
Just trying to thumbnail how much beyond human/animal bodily energy a modern technological civilization requires.
You wouldn't have Costco without *millions* of times the energy of an animal economy.
It would be nice if we could do even better, with cheap fusion, solar housepaint, or whatever.
Yes, at least with respect to transportation. Not necessarily for manufacturing, much of which can be run on gas or electricity.
Better explained with behavioral macroeconomics where there is a salient shock viewed as a loss which causes rapid readjustment in spending behavior to maintain wealth, income, or social position.
Look up some articles on behavioral macroeconomics and supply or demand shocks.
I'm skeptical that behavioral macroeconomics is required. A supply shock will make marginal industries/activities that use that commodity as an input unprofitable, and if those industries are capital intensive, the that capital will suddenly become worthless. The total capital intensity of the economy will decrease, decreasing it's real output potential.
If you believe that everyone is rational, then someone rational would have hedged against a risk, or would not overreact to it. Moreover, remember, we are not dealing with financial gurus here and their decision making under uncertainty and ambiguity, but stupid folks, of which there are many, who overreact to transitory, salient events.
Behavioral macroeconomics means we'd need to focus on what John Q. Public believes to be the "commanding heights" of the economy.
The problem with Alex's postulate is all of times when a sharp run-up in oil prices did not result in recession (the mid-80s, the mid-90s, most of the 00s*). The evidence seems to fit better if one runs the causation arrow the other way -- recessions cause the price of oil to drop.
* Yes, this run-up eventually terminated in the 2008 crash, but if the theory has to be extended to "a sharp rise in oil prices means there will be a recession sometime in the next seven years," then its predictive power is effectively zero.
Oil prices were low in the 1980s after OPEC capitulated in the 1983-1985 period, and they remained low until the end of the Great Moderation around 200-2005.
Jim Hamilton has an 'inoculation' theory (my words, not his), that an oil price already seen by an economy will not cause a subsequent recession. I think there is some truth to that, but I might be less categorical in my view.
This post is a rather long-winded way of saying "I don't understand how sticky prices/wages work".
Is this guy supposed to be part of "the best and the brightest" ?
Or he's entertaining alternative explanations?
Bob is Speaking to Idiots.
No, he is not -- Tabarrok is barely an economist. I wonder who read him Baqaae and Farhi's paper.
No. The key is the volume, not the price, of oil.
If the economy is not able to obtain the volume of oil necessary to function, then production and consumption must be rebalanced, ie, fewer cars, fewer vacations, smaller houses, to be replaced with potentially more services and intangible goods. That realignment of the economy can cause a recession. The recession may be prolonged by sticky wages and prices, but the underlying cause is still a real supply shock.
Interesting result, thanks for sharing. Obviously an oil supply shock in the age of fracking is a different beast (at least in the US), would be interesting to see how much different at similar ratios of supply.
I was going to download the paper, but the NBER does not agree Illinois is a developing or transition economy (clearly they need to visit!). Intriguing summary, anyway.
There's a link to the free version in the OP next to the NBER link.
Fracking, which is despised by the left, is responsible for the prosperity we see today.
I would really enjoy a simulation by an economist as to the state of the world if we had banned fracking as all good liberals wanted. Sadly, all modelers are employed in climate studies. Strange.
You an idiot. Anyone else on this page understands that fracking has risks and rewards, any that it is not an abstract or ideologically pure morality play.
Correlation does not equal causation. Note that your study did not control for household income. Probably people with a lot of money prefer not to live in the middle of a dense oil patch.
My point really is just the energy vs externality trade-off. I picked an example of that, and you might quibble with it, but I don't think any reasonable person would say oil in general and tracking in particular is pure positive.
Fracking is almost entirely a positive. It's about as benign a form of resource extraction as you'll find.
To argue against fracking, you have to put a very high price on carbon.
My main concern is about process. Are we doing health and environmental studies scrupulously and honestly? Or are we (as I sometimes fear) dividing into "no study" and "stacked study" camps?
If the piping associated with a well is poorly installed through the aquifer, generally the top 250 ft, then groundwater may become contaminated. (Fracking is usually conducted at depths around 4,000 ft.) This is a manageable risk, really related primarily to good manufacturing process. I'd add that any number of aquifers in Pennsylvania are naturally contaminated with hydrocarbons. To wit, oil was discovered at a depth of 29.5 feet in Titusville, PA, back in 1859.
2. Leakage from retention ponds.
Fracking and produced water from wells may be stored in open retention ponds. If these ponds -- which are ordinarily rubber lined -- leak, then nearby areas, conceivably including groundwater, could be contaminated. This again is primarily a question of proper site management.
In general, produced water is disposed of using approved methodologies. It's not inconceivable that some would be disposed of improperly. This is illegal, but illegal things can happen sometimes.
A popular method of produced water disposal is re-injection into old depleted oil wells or disposal wells drilled specifically for that purpose. The data suggest that such practices can in fact induce small earthquakes, with Oklahoma a notable example. This can be mediated by appropriate management, as it largely has been in Oklahoma.
Fracking has been done for more than fifty years. It is well understood and not particularly dangerous, assuming proper procedures are followed. Such contamination as occurs will tend to be local, as opposed to an offshore spill, which can cover hundreds of square miles.
Really, compared to activities like mining or even conventional oil production, fracking puts much less strain on the environment.
Thanks for proving my point about your camp.
Read Steven's list again. He makes my point that there are recognized externalities.
He just makes the rather unsafe assumption that local risks are everywhere managed.
My links suggest that is what in question.
If fracking is so problematic where are all the law suits? And don't tell me big oil doesn't get sued look at the Deepwater Horizon penalties. Fact is fracking is incredibly safe and opposition to it is the lefts version of anti-vaccers.
Can you guys even read?
I talk above about the benefits of a mass energy economy. I talk here about the trade-off with externalities, which Steven helpfully expands.
The nutters are on the extremes, "horribly unsafe" or "harmless."
But did you even Google for lawsuits?
Yes, there are externalities, and this is not debated even within the oil business. If you don't regulate drillers, they will be potentially careless about aquifers and indifferent about waste disposal. But this is really no different than, say, a manufacturing plant or a meat processing facility. You need adequate, but not excessive, regulation and enforcement.
I think enforcement may be weaker in areas with a tradition of production and a large number of remote, rural locations. For example, Texas oil culture really evolved on the standards of a century ago, and these standards may tend to persist simply because that's the way things have always been done.
In any event, fracking can be done safely, but no one should assume that drillers are the Mary Poppins of American commerce. Drilling activities do need competent and judicious regulation and enforcement.
This is mostly about people who collapse odds to 0 or 50 or 100%, who can't handle "odd" odds, let alone uncertain odds, as being real.
If you want structure, you have to obserserve congestion. This is what traders do with their charts; technical analysis.
But talking of oil shocks, is it fair to say that the inflations induced by oil cartels in the 70s are a refutation of the monetarist orthodoxy that inflation is created only at the mint when the government prints too much money and as a result too much cash chases too few goods?
As per monetarist theory, oil shocks should have merely meant reduced demand for other goods / services, and hence no aggregate increase in price level. Correct? But then we did have sustained high inflation rates in the 70s. I am not sure how much of the inflation can be attributed to Oil shocks vs loose monetary policy.
I think this was a big miscommunication between academics, through the economic press, and to lay people.
Academics may know that a price shock can show up in CPI or PPI, but it will be reported on the nightly news as "inflation."
Should price indexes soar again, this will probably repeat.
It was mostly monetary policy.
I would say that they decrease the real output potential of the economy, so monetary policy could still prevent inflation by tightening, but that may cause more dislocation in other sectors than allowing higher inflation.
The reactions of the Fed was to continue increasing the money supply even though real output fell. That's inflationary.
Scott Sumner has argued that the fed created the inflation of the 70s. As an example there was a big spike in oil prices in 07-08 and no corresponding inflation.
As per monetarist theory, oil shocks should have merely meant reduced demand for other goods / services, and hence no aggregate increase in price level.
That's what I assumed while studying under Tyler Cowen & Company (back in the '90s).
I think now that this implicitly assumes most if not all relevant externalities are pecuniary.
But what if quantity changes remain quantity changes through the system, or what if price changes translate into quantity changes?
Market power, with downward sloping demand curves and less than fully elastic -- or even inelastic -- demand and supply. Sticky prices. Sticky wages.
Then increased oil and gas prices (or decreased supply) to U.S. businesses don't just mean some prices go up relative to others and quantities demanded shift. It may mean that actually less gets produced...which may even also cause stagflation.
Why does the size of the oil industry matter? The US gets the majority of its oil from abroad. Large spikes in oil prices preceded US recessions. True enough, but that has nothing to do with the US oil industry.
Countries that have zero domestic production of crude oil or oil refineries can get hit very hard by an oil price shock.
The issue is consumption of oil, not production of oil, and how essential oil is to other industries and consumers.
US imports about 10 MMbbl/day (mostly crude), but it exports about 6 MMbbl/day (mostly refined petroleum products); meanwhile, we produce about 10 MMbbl/day. Thus imports make up less than 30% of total US domestic consumption. Production matters. The more oil we produce, the bigger cushion we have against international oil shocks.
That was once true, but now US net oil imports are a marginal source of oil.
Actually, US net crude and product imports over the last four weeks averaged 3.0 mbpd, on consumption of 20.0 mbpd, representing an import dependence of 15%. We've come a long way from the days when we imported 60% of the oil we consumed.
If a country produces its own oil, then an oil price spike will help the oil sector even as it hurts the manufacturing sector. Ergo, during the period of high oil prices, the middle of the country from Houston to North Dakota boomed even as the coasts struggled. Without oil production, everyone would have struggled--which was pretty much the European experience.
I don't have a problem with decomposing macro models into sectors, or distinguishing between intermediate and final goods - go right ahead if the results are interesting. What I don't understand is the last paragraph: why do we need to claim the term 'microfoundations' for this kind of decomposition? And in the case of oil prices - isn't this confusing a 'foundation' with a shock?
Even if we decide we want to endogenize the energy sector or energy prices in some way, what does this have to do with whether a model uses a "utility-maximizing representative agent" on the consumer side? (Or did you mean a representative firm? But you would still have to say something about firm behavior if you had an array of firms or sectors.) There are multitudinous criticisms of the representative agent approach, but I don't see what it's got to do with accounting for intermediate inputs on the production side.
But I agree the Baqaee and Farhi research cited is interesting. Maybe for some kinds of questions it's a needless complication to decompose the production side. but in other cases it could be very important.
A good example of where studying network theory and fluid dynamics is probably a smart way for young economists to move.
"Thus, in the standard view, the oil industry is no more important for understanding economic fluctuations than say the retail sales industry, since they are about the same size." But who holds this "standard view"?
It is trivially true--true by definition--true as a matter of accounting--that a decline in production from one period to the next of P percent in one sector of the economy contributes equally negatively to GDP with a decline of P percent in any other sector of the same size. Indeed, if we look at the changes in absolute value of production in different sectors rather than at percentage changes, we may drop the same-size limitation: a decline of X dollars in one sector contributes equally negatively to GDP with a decline of X dollars in any other sector, regardless of their relative sizes.
However this point about accounting tells us nothing about causation, which (I presume) we would have to grasp in order to "understand" fluctuations in GDP. An X-dollar decline in one sector, such as oil, may cause subsequent declines in other sectors, while an X-dollar decline in some other sector, such as retail, would have no such negative effect. But who ever denied this?
We refer to a certain set of goods as 'enabling commodities', as they enable other forms of economic activity.
Oil is one, but so is water and air, for that matter. If there were no air -- a commodity which we don't even measure as having value -- GDP would fall to zero. Similarly, droughts and resulting famines are the stuff of historical disaster.
Oil is important as the de facto monopoly fuel for transportation. Transportation is necessary to move goods and people from production to consumption. A shortage of oil reduces our capability to produce and consume, with the regulator being the pace of efficiency gains. Obviously, if efficiency can be increased easily, then oil consumption can be readily reduced without material impact on economic activity. If not, then economic activity -- or certainly its growth -- will be restrained. This could result in 'stagflation' or 'secular stagnation' as the case may be.
I have a long presentation on this I made at Columbia University back in 2014. Still a cult classic.
The price elasticity of demand for oil is among the lowest in the economy.
So an oil price spike causes demand for other thing to be impacted much more than a similar price spike for other goods or services would impact other goods or services.
There's a confusion here. "In macroeconomics"? Which part of macroeconomics?
1. Contributing to long-run growth, as in, are we richer as a country.
2. Contributing to business cycles.
Prior to 1973 the US economy spent 1-2% of GDP on crude oil. After two price shocks, in about 1981 it was a bit over 5% of GDP.
Today we're back at about 1-2% again.
Oil consumption is currently 2.3% of US GDP and about 2.4% of world GDP.
One idea to consider, perhaps oil & gas are the most rational of sectors in the economy. A spike in oil/gas prices then might be the indication that even the supposedly sane analysts have drunk the bubble kool-aid and are buying into absurd levels of demand in the near future. This demand will never actually materialize, though, so perhaps oil/gas is the last to spike and first to crash signaling the start of the recession.
Why should this particular sector have the honor of being so 'grounded in reality'? Possibly because it's so much 'on the ground'....people drive vehicles and people have to drill for oil/gas, in the very short run this doesn't change all that much but since there's little flexibility in short term supply even minute deviations from expectations cause wide price swings.
The energy sector represents about 46% of capital investment--about half of that is in oil and gas. That means the price of oil and gas is highly coupled to the natural rate of interest and does much more to swing a given fed target in to being erroneously easy or tight than variation in the retail sector which is capital light.
Fascinating. I learned something new today. This fact illuminates a lot of economic and political-economy mysteries.
Hmmm... So if it is the case that some sectors are more important than others, then it could possibly be the case that the goods manufacturing sector is more important than the burger-flipping service sector. In which case, the unilateral free trade that exchanged the former for the latter may not have been the brightest idea ever.
. . . more important *for understanding economic fluctuations*--not "more important" in some absolute sense.
The Fed seeing higher oil prices tightens the money supply leading to recession..
Right. This is standard text book, High oil prices are a sign of a strong economy because oil consumption is rising faster than anticipated by investors in oil, so it is a good sign that monetary policy is loose.
You can always tell it's a Tabarrok post because it doesn't make allusive, shamanic statements with no verifiable content.
Not that Baqaee and Farhi's work isn't also plausible - it makes a lot of sense that industries that are harder to substitute from can have more (negative) impact on the economy.
In an input-output matrix, oil appear in all columns. Anything that impact it will have a disprportionate effect ewverywhere.
But this technique, essentially invented in the US for finding what to bomb first and then used by Europeans to identify what to rebuild ( the same list in reverse), while common tool amongst European and Canadian economists is now vitually unknown in the US (it reeks of "central planning").
A few years ago, aprominent US economist was keynote speaker at a large gathering of Québec economists. He began his talk thus:" If I was a Québécois or Canadian economist, I'd use an input-output model and be done in 20 minutes. But as I am american, I'll take 2 hours."


Wortham Park, nestled in the center of the Medical Center, boasts wonderful water features and luscious landscaping. Perfect for a small, intimate ceremony or wonderful pictures!. The trees, the columns, the waterfalls are all in rows and there are plenty of them. The only thing to keep in mind in going here is the parking which is limited but other than that it's a location to see.
Thanks so much for posting. I'm always looking for new photography locations. This is great!
You are very welcome, wortham park is a great location for photos especially engagement sessions. It has a very romantic setting 🙂 check it out.
Where in Houston is this?


When this happens, the offender often displayed even before reaching adolescence. Parents, friends and teachers are all responsible along with the juvenile who commit a crime. Because their judgment can be impaired, these adolescents may want to get revenge towards those perceived as against them. These programs helps to stop the feeling of alienation many teenagers have and ties them to the community they are a part of. Diversion programs that offer education classes based on the specific offences provide a foundation to address the issue that caused the arrest in the first place. Peer group influence: Peer group is a very strong force that can cause delinquent behavior in the adolescent. Across all demographics, Males and Females, Whites and Minorities, and people age 18-24 and 25-over all thought that school dropout was the cause of juvenile delinquency and stay-in-school programs were the best solution to it.
The study also points out the male to female ratio of sexual predators. This causes trauma to innocent people and Fatima is left untreated, it can cause mental problems in the long run, although it may not be evident in the beginning. Parents, friends and teachers are all responsible along with the juvenile who commit a crime. They should give the due respect to everyone they know and meet. In case of any disability parents and teachers should talk to the teens about their problems and they should try to solve their problems. In major cities, a substantial number of 6th to 12th grade students have reported violence, crime, weapons and gang related activity in their schools.
Peer group rejection can aslo be the cause of juvenile delinquency. No amount of tenderness or love from anyone can change this, in some cases. This child may be labeled as criminal by circumstance and poor decision on who they hung out with. What is more, it is necessary to decide, which is effective and which is not, for not to waste the state resources that are directed at the solution. Everyone has a different set of personality and sometimes children are born naturally aggressive. It is morally wrong and when someone steals, they should feel guilt. Effects As of 2011, juvenile delinquency costs the U.
Conduct Disorder can be both aggressive, where physical harm is caused or non-aggressive which results in property damage or loss. Or can a child be a result of the media and what society shows? The boy is a paid and voluntary subject in a research project, not the patient of a court-appointed doctor. Righthand and Welch reported that females account for an estimated 2—11% of incidents of sexual offending. Though bullying is extremely frowned upon, it still happens because many teenagers see more of this in the media than they do of people being kind and helping others. Finally, those children that display the weakest attachment to their parents and families are precisely the same juveniles who engage in inappropriate activities, including delinquent conduct. Instead, behavior is a result of participation in certain groups.
For example, studies have shown the majority of juvenile offenders come from families living in poverty, the highest percent being people of color or minority groups. You may , discuss the issue on the , or , as appropriate. Theory and research… 1164 Words 5 Pages Juvenile delinquency is a problem these days, despite a recent drop in arrests. What is considered normal behavior in a very young child can fit into any one of the categories mentioned in this article. Children resulting from are more likely to exhibit delinquent behavior.
Additionally, teenagers whose parents are not actively involved or interested in their lives are more likely to become bullies, which may ultimately lead to involvement in gangs or violent behavior. Their voilence and aggression make them commit crimes that other boys will never do. Engaging Minority Groups Looking at the demographics of the offenders can sometimes be instructive when it comes to actually getting to the root of the issue, too. Full text of 'juvenile delinquency causes, prevention, treatment; An essay on the causes juvenile. Understanding the causes of juvenile delinquency is an integral part of preventing a young person from involvement in inappropriate, harmful and illegal conduct. A program identified by the Surgeon General as being effective at preventing juvenile delinquency early on is the Parent-Child Interaction Training Program.
Juvenile offenders range in age from 12 to 17 years, and become incarcerated for a variety of reasons. Juvenile delinquency affects male and female youths, although the majority of offenders are young men. Most offenders are male and identify with minority groups. Criminals are formed by their environment, life experiences, and other situational factors. .
There are several theories as to why this may be: some suggest it is because the majority of society has generally negative or stereotypical attitudes toward these groups that the youth can detect, while others say that it is because minorities are not as widely exposed to positive role models that they can relate to. Of the 25 boys under the program, only three have been returned to prison--an amazing figure when contrasted with the national return rate of 50 per cent. Child Psychiatry and Human Development. Publish your articlefactors contributing to delinquency semantic scholar. Society is often cruel towards a handicap and this unequal and unjust attitude of the society develops negative feelings in the person. The negative feelings make the person commit crime even if he belongs to a good family. Understanding violent behavior in children and adolescents.
Only later, when he had a regular job, he tell us about it. Some of these theorists point to the seminal experience of a childhood trauma especially child abuse, either of a physical or sexual nature. According to me the family is the foundation of human society. So, this becomes part of a contributing factor of the poor- having a higher crime rate across the board. Some social workers are trained to deal with teenage problems. Before coming of age girls and boys have less understanding of the world. Society is a strong force in developing perosnality of the teens.
What Are The Main Causes Of Juvenile Delinquency?
It's the kids who don't licenses who steal cars. There is no doubt that various books and experts can give us many theories as to the causes of juvenile delinquency, including one's economic background, substance abuse, peer groups, repeated exposure to violence through the family circit, increased availability of firearms and media violence, however, I feel that the number one cause of juvenile delinquency is the breakdown of families, including lack of parental control over children. Correcting basic concepts of juvenile delinquency. The growing rate of unemployment makes it difficult for parents to provide for their children. According to the , when families simply find time to be together, it can increase the possibility for positive outcomes and delinquency prevention. These uncontrolled responses is one of the causes for juvenile delinquency.


text:
Olean, New York to accelerate its walkable downtown revitalization via $10 million prize
On September 29, 2017, Governor Andrew M. Cuomo today announced that the city of Olean, New York will receive $10 million in funding as the Western New York winner of the second round of the Downtown Revitalization Initiative.
Senator Catharine M. Young explained, "Downtowns are the hearts and souls of our communities. With this investment, Olean will be able to revitalize downtown into a thriving, attractive destination for people in our region and beyond, ensuring its success and its future. Additionally, the increased jobs and economic activity resulting from the project will translate into a broader tax base which will benefit all Olean residents. We are working together on the state level to make good things happen here in Western New York. I thank Governor Cuomo and Lieutenant Governor Hochul for their commitment to our region."
As in the first round of the DRI, one municipality from each of the state's 10 regional economic development regions will be selected as a $10 million winner, marking another overall state goal to target $100 million in funding and investments to help communities identify catalytic downtown projects to boost the local economy.
Olean's historic downtown is walkable and bikeable, bounded by Olean Creek and the Allegheny River. The area includes the Central Business District with several landmark buildings, adjoining residential districts, and recreational assets including Bradner Stadium and a recreation center. The area also includes the Olean General Hospital, Jamestown Community College, and a newly opened Olean Business Development Center which provides services to entrepreneurs.
Empire State Development President, CEO & Commissioner Howard Zemsky said, "The successful DRI program is helping communities by creating new opportunities for business growth, resulting in more vibrant downtowns across New York. Olean's DRI projects will build on the momentum the city started with its 'Walkable Olean' plan. I congratulate Western New York on another DRI award and look forward to seeing Olean's contributions to the overall "Strategy for Prosperity" which is successfully transforming the region's economy."
The city will build on these assets to create a vibrant and active 24-hour downtown that supports a growing and diverse population of residents who are optimistic about opportunity to work, learn, and thrive in Olean.
With this funding in place, Olean will now begin the process of developing a Strategic Investment Plan to revitalize its downtown with up to $300,000 in planning funds from the $10 million DRI grant. A Local Planning Committee made up of municipal representatives, community leaders, and other stakeholders will lead the effort, supported by a team of private sector experts and state planners.
New York Secretary of State Rossana Rosado said, "Downtown Revitalization Initiative funding will help invigorate Olean's downtown, offering opportunities for job creation and economic growth, while also making the area more livable to keep existing residents and attract new ones. The Department of State will continue to work closely with municipalities across New York State to help develop communities, including those in their downtowns."
The Strategic Investment Plan for downtown Olean will examine local assets and opportunities and identify economic development, transportation, housing, and community projects that align with the community's vision for downtown revitalization and that are poised for implementation. The downtown Olean Strategic Investment Plan will guide the investment of DRI grant funds in revitalization projects that will advance the community's vision for its downtown and that can leverage and expand upon the state's $10 million investment. Plans for DRI's second round will be complete in early 2018.
"The Governor understands that a thriving downtown can be an economic catalyst for an entire region," said Lieutenant Governor Kathy Hochul. "This well-deserved Downtown Revitalization Initiative award, which is one of the largest grants Olean has ever received, will help it build on its role as an economic, educational and recreational hub, accelerating the renewal of walkable spaces in downtown and the growth of a diverse population of additional residents."
The Western New York Regional Economic Development Council went through a competitive review process of proposals from communities throughout the region and considered all eight criteria below before recommending Olean as its nominee for winner:
The downtown should be compact, with well-defined boundaries;The municipality, or the downtown's catchment area, should be of sufficient size to support a vibrant, year-round downtown;
The downtown is able to capitalize on prior or catalyze future private and public investment in the neighborhood and its surrounding areas;
There should be recent or impending job growth within, or in close proximity to the downtown that can attract workers to the downtown, support redevelopment and make growth sustainable;
The downtown must be an attractive and livable community for diverse populations of all ages, including existing residents, millennials and skilled workers;
The municipality should already embrace or have the ability to create and implement policies that increase livability and quality of life, including the use of local land banks, modern zoning codes and parking standards, complete streets plans, energy efficient projects, green jobs, and transit-oriented development;
The municipality should have conducted an open and robust community engagement process resulting in a vision for downtown revitalization and a preliminary list of projects and initiatives that may be included in a DRI strategic investment plan; and
The municipality has identified transformative projects that will be ready for implementation with an infusion of DRI funds within the first one to two years.
New York State Homes and Community Renewal Commissioner RuthAnne Visnauskas said, "Governor Cuomo's Downtown Revitalization Initiative helps breathe new life and bring new opportunities into cities like Olean, putting them on a path to prosperity. This $10 million investment in Olean is part of a strategic goal to harness the amazing assets of downtowns across the state – increasing access to housing, creating jobs and attracting cultural and recreational opportunities, and enriching and improving quality of life in the entire region."
Olean's second round DRI win entitles it to receive $10 million in state funding and investments to revitalize its downtown neighborhoods and generate new opportunities for long-term growth. Olean now joins the City of Jamestown, which was the Western New York region's winner in the first DRI round.
Western New York REDC Co-Chair Jeff Belt added, "Governor Cuomo demonstrated confidence in Olean and Olean delivered. Olean's priority projects through the REDC were key to kicking off the City's transformation. This DRI award will be the rocket fuel for our renaissance."
"New York is investing in municipalities poised for advancement and growth, and with this $10 million commitment to develop the City of Olean's downtown, the community will have the resources it needs to attract new businesses, improve outdoor recreation, and foster the creation of new jobs," Governor Cuomo said. "This investment will add more momentum to Western New York's resurgence, while laying the groundwork for a stronger, more viable region for decades to come."
Historic postcard of downtown Olean by anonymous.
Learn more about Governor Cuomo's Downtown Revitalization Initiative.
See City of Olean wbsbite.


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