text:
A famous insight mis-Queue
Sperm-bank promotion strategy. It's a toss-up.
Aviva wins on customer service
The eyes have it. A story of guardian angels.
Predatory Thinking, the Harry Houdini way
Christy on The mad-men are gone. But Adve…
Ian Leslie on The mad-men are gone. But Adve…
Roger Evans on Only a producer society can gi…
Nigel on How to get a bed for the night
Moral Decision Making
Predatory Thinking
Social Decision Making
Musings from Christy Stewart-Smith, MD of The Gate London
Category Archives: Social Decision Making
Advertising, Behaviour Change, Behavioural Economics, Marketing Strategy, Persuasion, Predatory Thinking, Social Decision Making
December 1, 2015 ChristyAdvertising, availability heuristic, Behaviour Change, Behavioural Economics, Changing Opinions Leave a comment
Today the news that the UK's National Sperm Bank, set up a year ago, has only nine donors so far, and is about to unveil a promotional campaign to ramp-up the volume of in-flows.
On the surface, it seems a straightforward problem to solve. But read on…
Turns out the sperm bank needs 'super-sperm' not just ordinary, run-of-the-mill, 33-Acacia-Avenue sperm. This is because it needs to survive the constant freezing and unfreezing process inherent in the final customer service procedure (giving infertility sufferers the chance of a child).
Out of 100 potential donor applicants, only ten survive the screening process and only 1 of those 10 will actually become a donor.
The lucky participant must attend the clinic twice a week for four months and, in exchange for £70 a session, abstain from ejaculating for two days before each visit, which essentially ensures an entirely monogamous relationship with the clinic, for the duration of the programme.
And that's before you get to the customer selection process. People in the market for sperm tend to be quite choosy, apparently. They want donors of 6' or more, for instance, which rules out 90% of potential UK donors straight away. And they all want doctors or barristers – most of whom are too busy, too rich, or both, to sign up.
So perhaps it's not surprising that most donated sperm in the UK currently comes from Denmark and USA.
The forthcoming advertising campaign will ape a successful precedent in Denmark, in which men are challenged to prove their manliness by demonstrating the 'vigour' of their 'guys'. A follow-up planned for Christmas is going to ask men to consider giving "an alternative Christmas gift".
I'll be delighted if either of these approaches works. But I wonder if they've learned as fully as they might, the lessons behavioural economics might teach.
In one sense it's a bit like the Royal Marines campaign, which broadcasts the fact that 99% need not apply. "We're only for the hardest nuts," they say.
But the sperm-bank version would have to be – surely – "Have you got the ballsiest, bounciest swimmers in the business? (And are you also over 6', handsome, intelligent, well adjusted and gainfully employed in a respected professional occupation). If so come and subject yourself to our test and win yourself the prize of wanking into a test-tube for four months in exchange for not much money and the eternal admiration of all your friends – who you'll definitely tell straight away".
Better surely to normalise the act of one-off donation, along the lines of blood donorship (where they don't tell you – and please don't ask – how many already donated blood samples need to be excluded from the transfusion bank).
That way the largest possible number of men could begin to imagine it was normal, your duty even, to donate, without becoming alarmed as to the potential consequences or commitment.
Once you've got your contingent of suitable donors in through the door, you could then explain what they've got themselves, and their "guys", into.
Advertising, Behaviour Change, Equality, Moral Decision Making, Persuasion, Social Decision Making
Can we all agree to agree? Just sometimes?
March 25, 2014 ChristyChanging Opinions, Equality, Gay rights, Hitchens, NoBystanders, Radio 4, Stigma, Stonewall Leave a comment
I listened to Peter Hitchens' piece on Stigma yesterday evening on the wireless. You'll be able to get the full blast on iPlayer for the next few days.
He was arguing that, whilst we often pretend that our society has moved beyond stigma as a controlling force, it is actually alive and well – in a new and disturbing form.
Stimga itself, he suggested, has become stigmatised.
Postulating critical or even questioning views on the situations and lifestyle choices of others is now beyond the pale.
Try and share any kind of non-majority opinion about the way someone else lives, and prepare to be hounded by the Twitterati and Arsebookers with their digital pitchforks and burning e-torches.
It made me wonder about the film we've just done for Stonewall, the LGB charity (www.NoBystanders.org.uk).
It launched last Friday at the Stonewall 25th anniversary dinner – and has subsequently been shared (a lot) online.
Übertweeters Caitlin Moran, Stephen Fry, Danii Minogue, Clare Balding, Dame Penelope Keith and countless millions of others have supported, much to our – and Stonewall's – delight. The elusive Zeitgeist seems to be with us, for a change.
The idea behind it, on the eve of the first actual gay marriages, was to make two points:
Firstly, even in our apparently permissive society, gay people are still routinely teased, bullied and discriminated against in schools, in workplaces and in public areas, up and down the country.
Secondly, the roots of homophobic bullying are similar to bullying levelled against any kind of separately identifiable group (Jews, Blacks, Honkeys, Fatsos, Gingernuts, Spakkas etc.).
We've been talking to Stonewall about beginning to move beyond the core constituency of gay people they represent, and the liberal intellectuals who support their objectives through an innate sense of socially progressive conviction.
With the big legislative battles more or less won, theoretical equality is sorted.
Now they need to find a way to engage with more socially conservative audiences, who probably still represent an overwhelming majority in the UK, even if they have been cowed into the state of seething, non-PC silence that P. Hitchens outlines.
In this case, it seemed we might be able to forge a bond of togetherness by talking about humans in general, rather than humans in particular: How we tend to define ourselves and our groups not by who we are, but by who we're not.
My enemy's enemy is my friend – as the old maxim goes.
Our little film begins in the playground, a place where even the most confident have felt the odd-pang of vulnerability as they suddenly find themselves on the outside of the group, rather than the in. For some, it's the start of a life-time of alienation and abuse.
It attempts to recognise that gay people are not the only individuals who are marginalised because of things about which they can do little or nothing.
So are we just bullying people ourselves?
Foisting our liberal values on the poor traditionalists who cling to their view of the world as it was bequeathed to them by their forefathers?
Certainly one man seems to think so.
A brave lone voice in the relentless digital agreement-fest stands out. Here's one of his (many) contributions:
I truly believe no one at Stonewall wants to force their "perverted" way of life onto this dude. Nor do I.
We were only trying to see if non-gay people were as against bullying as gay people are. And whether we could forge a huge "alliance of the different" to challenge some of the worst excesses of human nature, that we all share.
Surely there are some things on which we can all agree to agree?
It makes me regret we didn't include "Bigot" as one of the insults.
And to try and get Mr. Russell to realise he's just like the rest of us – and welcome him to join us.
On the inside of the tent, pissing outwards.
http://youtu.be/agLrVvCUkzI
Skydiving, Social Decision Making
Thrillax beats chillax every time
November 26, 2013 Christyavailability heuristic, Recency effect, relaxing, Skydiving, Social Decision Making Leave a comment
"Why on earth would anyone want to jump out of a perfectly serviceable aeroplane?" everyone asks me.
They always use the same, rather quaint, phrase, "perfectly serviceable aeroplane", as if they've just clambered out of their RAF overalls.
At least it tells me they've never been anywhere near a jump 'plane, which are mostly antique, rotting hulks held together with binder-twine, bubble-gum and gaffer tape.
It's true that most of us do offer up a silent prayer as we exit the 'plane at 13,000 feet.
But it's only for the safety of the poor pilot who has to land the damned thing when he gets down.
We'd all rather trust our parachutes.
So this week, I'm on holiday. Jumping in Eloy, Arizona, home of the largest fleet of jump 'planes in the world.
And, all credit to the wonderful owners and organisers of Skydive Arizona, this huge fleet is in fact way more than just "perfectly serviceable".
But still the question persists, so I thought I'd try and give my best shot at an answer.
Most of the studies into so-called 'dangerous sports' seem to focus on an imagined enhancement to status and self-esteem amongst those who attempt things that seem brave/foolhardy to others.
This is another way of saying people take risks to get noticed and to get girls.
Actually the research is very conclusive on the subject: the status of a person who puts themselves purposefully at risk is only enhanced when they do so in order to benefit others.
That makes sense, doesn't it?
Fireman rescues damsel from burning building = hunky hero.
Middle-aged bloke jumping from aeroplane for no 'good' reason = feckin' eedjit.
I've heard other skydivers explain away their enthusiasm by distancing themselves from the whole dangerous sports crowd entirely.
And it's perfectly true that skydiving is way safer than you'd imagine.
You think it's dangerous because a) it's unfamiliar, and therefore not to be trusted by 'normal' people and b) you've almost certainly recently read about skydiving accidents.
Journalists far prefer to write about skydiving accidents than car crashes.
It's the good old "Availability Heuristic" at work – with added "Recency Effect"!
Using US figures (where more skydiving happens than in every other country combined) there's 0.0007% chance of dying from a skydive, compared to a 0.0167% chance of dying in a car accident (based on driving 10,000 miles).
Put another way you are about 24 times more likely to die in a car accident than in a skydiving one.
It looks even better when you compare it to other things people consider perfectly safe and normal like riding a bicycle in an urban environment (insane) or any form of equestrianism (probably the single most dangerous activity of all).
Skydiving is all about safety, not about danger.
All about mitigating risks with training and technology.
And the average number of skydiving fatalities per year is almost half of what it used to be in the 1970s.
But these statistic apologists are missing the point too.
We do do it for fun, no question about it.
So what is that fun precisely?
My perspective is that almost all participants in almost every sport benefit from a physiological thrill provided by endorphins.
People who do risky things get the additional benefit from a blast of adrenaline – the body's drug of last resort.
It's adrenaline that has helped mothers lift cars that are crushing their children.
It's adrenaline that explains how indifferent runners can outrun athletes, when they're in danger.
It helps you focus your mental and physical resources in times of need. And it's strong stuff.
I skydive to relax.
When I lie on a beach, I worry about all things I ought to be doing at home and at work.
When I read a book, even when I'm really enjoying it, I feel a bit guilty I'm not 'getting on with something"
When I'm jumping out of a 'plane I'm thinking about how to get back on the ground in one piece.
And if I do that five or six times a day, I end up physically exhausted with a mind that feels like it's been down the boot-sale and unloaded a whole attic full of neural junk.
And I'm properly relaxed.
I know I get some of the same benefits from skiing and scuba-diving.
The special appeal of skydiving, to me, is the combination of max-adrenaline (that comes from the high-stakes involved) and high levels of control (equipment, training, focus) that give me the confidence to enjoy it.
As I think of the poor Prime Minister "chillaxing" with his Angry Birds, I wonder whether he wouldn't be better off thrillaxing with us?
Behaviour Change, Moral Decision Making, Persuasion, Politics, Social Decision Making
Think you can force through a change as big as Obamacare? Think again.
November 18, 2013 ChristyDemocracy, Health Insurance, Healthcare, Obamacare, Persuasion, Politics Leave a comment
I want to talk about the controversial healthcare reforms that are causing such a kerfuffle on the other side of the pond.
"That's rich", I hear you snigger, "A Brit, with an opinion about US healthcare. Let's see now…"
Well, it's true that I barely understand it. So I'm certainly not going to try to explain it to you.
If you want a quick, bluffers' guide to the "Affordable Care Act", this is the best one I've found:
"It's complicated", as they say, even explained by the You Toons.
One joker has even tried to put into infographic form:
And although people talk about the "closing wonk gap" (i.e. members of the general public figuring out facts about Obamacare that policy wonks on both sides of the debate have known for years), I guess you'd be prepared to agree with me that probably only a fraction of the people who need to understand the ins and outs of the proposed changes, actually properly do.
To give you some extra quick context, the video clip above has been viewed just 1.1 million times, which equates to it been seen by about 0.3% of the US population (Miley's "Wrecking Ball" is on 327,294,077 views at the time of writing).
This hasn't stopped anyone taking a position of course. And a strong one at that. There really aren't very many ambivalent people in the US it seems, when it comes to this particular debate.
And it's led to the fiercest, most destructive political brinksmanship and grandstanding in most of our living memories.
The concept is straightforward: Universal access to affordable healthcare ought to be the hallmark of a civilised well-developed society. Even at either extreme of the political spectrum, one ought to be able to get a nod on that, surely?
However even here in little Blighty, our precious NHS, providing care free at the point of use to all, is creaking and cracking as the apparently opposing forces of quality and affordability clash their irreconcilable heads. Even here it's a nettle with a politically lethal sting.
The implications of realising a goal of this kind in a country (or more accurately countries) as huge and diverse as the United States go straight to the central ideological differences between the Elephant and the Donkey. And this is where the practicality of implementation simply falls apart.
Because democratic politics is really only successful when elected politicians of different persuasions propose, debate, negotiate, vote and repeat until a deal is brokered.
"Obamacare" is the first instance for 100 years where one party has simply steamrollered a bill with huge national implications without garnering any kind of even partial agreement from the opposing party.
To see this more clearly, look at the J. P. Morgan chart below, which shows that almost all the important and controversial bills in living memory were passed with at least some level of participation and consent from both parties in both chambers.
Now look at the bottom and contrast with Obamacare.
The Democrats inability to empathise with their opponents implacable opposition to their solution has led to adopt a kind of "fuck you" politics, which can only provoke a "fuck you back, with knobs on" response. The Republicans, for their part, are now in the ludicrous position of proposing spoiling measures which may end up increasing the need for state intervention in the commercial supply of health insurance policies – one of the things they fundamentally oppose. The fight will go on, and the animosity between the two sides of legislators continues to grow.
And, just to remind you, 82% of Americans were perfectly happy with their health care system, before this all started (according to Gallup).
Now just 36% of voters support the bill.
And President Obama is now enjoying the worst popularity rating of any president except R. Nixon Esq.
A sharp reminder that big change needs broad consensus not just bright answers.
And establishing that broad consensus takes time, effort and excellent persuasion and communication skills – something noticeably lacking on both sides of the political divide in this instance.
It's also a salutary reminder of another more important principle:
A democratic mandate gives you the right to try and govern. It doesn't give you the right to get your own way.
That's called something different.
Behaviour Change, Behavioural Economics, Persuasion, Social Decision Making
How to get a bed for the night
August 20, 2013 ChristyBehaviour Change, Behavioural Economics, British Army, Charitable GIving, Social Decision Making 1 Comment
I never give money to beggars anymore. If I want to enrich the makers of Special Brew, I'll buy some myself.
But today I did.
A slightly-younger-than-me black man stopped me in the street as I was popping out for a sandwich. He apologised for bothering me.
He was a floating resident at a seamen's mission around the corner, he explained. I knew the place.
He said he was ex-forces, down on his luck. Lance-Corporal something-or-other. Before three o'clock, he needed to find four people to give him two quid each, so that he could continue to stay there.
That was the pitch.
Five seconds later, he only needed three more people.
It was as concise a shakedown as I've ever heard – and beautifully delivered:
He let me know he needed shelter.
He showed me he already had a solution – one that I knew and approved of (unlike Special Brew).
He advertised his army credentials: placing himself in a society I respect.
He instilled a sense of urgency by introducing a limited timeframe.
He communicated that I would be one of several helping him (classic behavioural economics)
He gave me a specific and easy way to help – clearly well within my means.
Textbook (perhaps written by the British Army).
Behaviour Change, Social Decision Making
Opening Isinbayeva's mind
August 16, 2013 ChristyAnti-gay legislation, Behavioural Economics, Changing Opinions, Haidt, Isinbayeva Leave a comment
Minds are like parachutes, they say. They work best when they are open.
But actually most of our minds are closed most of the time. And it is extremely hard work opening them.
To the astonishment of most of her co-competitors, Yelena Isinbayeva, the world champion pole vaulter, spoke out yesterday defending the new Russian laws, which ban people from giving information about homosexuality to under-18s.
In fact it's their astonishment that's astonishing.
Building on the breakthrough work done in behavioural economics by Kahneman, Tversky and many others, the social psychologist Jonathan Haidt has built an impressive and persuasive theory about the nature of social and moral decision making.
He paints a picture of humans as "90% chimp, 10% bee": Motivated predominantly by self-interest and the protection/promotion of small family groups, but also able to suppress [some] self-interest and make compromises in order to co-exist with other humans in larger groups that can compete more effectively.
Haidt provides compelling evidence that rational debate between opposing points of view rarely changes opinions. It seems we are all rubbish at seeking evidence in a balanced and objective way, to challenge the things we think we believe.
If we wish to believe, we seek evidence that supports our position. If we wish to disprove something, we search for the evidence that does that. In either case, we don't search very hard. Changing our mind takes effort and uncertainty – two things we are genetically programmed to avoid.
Using the opinions and mores of those that surround is the most prevalent example of this predilection for idle evidence gathering. Ms. Isinbayeva, bolstered by the supposed authority provided by national legislation, presents Russians as distinct and different, "Maybe we are different than European people, than other people from different lands. We consider ourselves normal, standard people, we just live with boys with women, women with boys."
Jonathan Haidt argues two primary prerequisites for opinion and behaviour change:
You must feel you hold a minority opinion.
Secondly, you must feel that, as a result of holding this minority opinion, you will be harshly judged or censured by a community of people whose views have an impact on your emotional or physical well-being.
This suggests that until the world's community of athletes – Ms. Isinbayeva's peers and her 'professional' society – becomes more important to her than her sense of identity as a Russian, her views will not change (assuming of course there is no unprecedented social and cultural liberal revolution in that country any time soon).
If we challenge her and threaten to strip her of her role as an Olympic Youth ambassador, the evidence suggests her position will only harden.
We need to embrace her and convince her that athletes are a world community and have an opportunity – even a responsibility – to act as an inspiration to everyone, beyond promoting narrow national interests. We need to persuade her that she can share in, benefit from and promote the progressive values this of this young, dynamic, international community, because of the admiration in which they are held by us non-Olympians.
We need to show her she can be a citizen of the world, not just a pole-vaulting Russian.


non-members. You may send as many requests at the same time as you wish.
Order Online: If you would like to order online using a credit card or a PayPal account, complete the form below.
If you have any questions, email isgsoffice@ilgensoc.org.
ISGS members receive a 40% discount on certificates. Not a member? Join ISGS now and start saving immediately!


text:
Health and medical research funding cuts: the facts
A cabinet leak has confirmed that the Government is planning to cut funding for to Australia's medical research in the upcoming budget. This will come from the National Health and Medical Research Council's (NHMRC) budget, the peak body for funding medical research in Australia.
The NHMRC currently commits around $700 million each year to fund health and medical research.
A cut will have an effect on all Australians. It will risk:
future access to health benefits
reducing Australia's spending on health
the long-term investment made by previous governments, as medical research takes years and sometimes decades to come to fruition
retaining Australia's best scientists, which will be detrimental to our future research capacity
medical research jobs – the National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) directly supported 8000 jobs in 2010.
The amount of money available to award to new projects each year is less than a third of the NHMRC's total budget, as project grants last for three years on average.
Last year, the NHMRC committed to around $430 million for project grants. Only 20% of applicants were successful in having their projects funded. Given the number of applicants has risen by about 10 percent, and the costs per grant will also have risen, the success rate for funding of new grants may drop to as low as 14%. This means only 14% of the health and medical projects that researchers need to carry out in order to advance medical knowledge and benefit the health of all will be able to go ahead.
Australian patients are usually the first to benefit from Australian discoveries.
Medical research improves the long-term health outcomes of all Australians. Reduced funding will decrease our capacity to respond to the unique healthcare needs of Australians
Medical research also has an economic benefit to the country. Every $1 invested in Australian health R&D sector returned, on average, $2.17 in national economic development (Access Economics 2008).
Australian research produced: the bionic ear, the heart pacemaker, the humidicrib, the medical ultrasound, the cervical cancer vaccine, to name a few.
The entire budget of the NHMRC is currently:
less than 2% (1.8%) of the 2008/2009 total budget of the Department of Health and Ageing of $38.38 billion
less than 1% (0.93%) of the estimated cost of the Australian Broadband Network ($43 billion)
Many Queensland research projects are funded by the NHMRC. A significant budget cut means projects like these may not be funded in the future:
A project sequencing the genomes of 500 pancreatic and ovarian cancers to compare the genetic differences between normal tissue and tumours (IMB)
The long-term study of the human papilloma virus (HPV) and Professor Ian Frazer's development of the first cervical cancer vaccine, Gardasil (The UQ Diamantina Institute)
The therapeutic development of a novel drug for spinal cord injuries (QBI)
Exploring the best rescue strategies for premature babies, as well as combating super bugs and antibiotic resistance (UQ Health Sciences)
Projects designed to prevent acute exacerbations of asthma in children and prevention of chronic suppurative lung disease (QCMRI)
Research at the QIMR and the University of Queensland into the human genetic disorder ataxia-telangiectasia (A-T), a debilitating disease of childhood, has been instrumental in the establishment of a clinic at the Royal Children's Hospital for the treatment and management of the disorder.
Life saving immunotherapy trials for advanced melanoma patients (QIMR)
More information can be found on the Discoveries Need Dollars website.
Queensland Institute of Medical Research (QIMR)
Sarah Tennant, Science Communication Manager
sarah.tennant@qimr.edu.au
The University of Queensland's Institute for Molecular Bioscience (IMB),
Bronwyn Adams, Communications Manager
b.adams@imb.uq.edu.au
Queensland Brain Institute
Denise Cullen, Executive Communications Officer
d.cullen2@uq.edu.au
Diamantina Institute
Caroline Davy, Communications Manager
c.davy@uq.edu.au
UQ Faculty of Health Sciences
Marlene McKendry, Communications Manager
m.mckendry@uq.edu.au
Mater Medical Research Institute
Jacqui Hayes, Senior Public Affairs Officer
Jacqueline.hayes@mater.org.au
QUT's Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation (IHBI)
Ross Young, Executive Director
rm.young@qut.edu.au
Wesley Research Institute
Jason Davidson, Marketing Manager
jdavidson@wesleyresearch.com.au
Queensland Children's Medical Research Institute
Marcus Engeman, Chief Operating Officer
marcus.engeman@qcmri.org.au
Medical research facing fund cuts
The future health of Australians under threat
Privacy & Terms of use | Feedback | Updated: 31 Jan 2017

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


Raabta is an upcoming Indian film directed by Dinesh Vijan and produced by Homi Adajania, Bhushan Kumar and Dinesh Vijan. The film stars Sushant Singh Rajput and Kriti Sanon in lead roles. The music for Raabta will be composed by Pritam. It is scheduled for release on 9 June 2017.
The film production began in 2015 and it was set to release in 2016. But the film was delayed for a year due to casting issues. In March 2016, a new release date of 9 June 2017 was announced.Its First look poster was released on April 14 2017.
Alia Bhatt was initially cast to play the lead role opposite Sushant Singh Rajput but Bhatt turned down the role due to date issues. In December 2015, Asin was approached to play the lead role opposite Rajput but she turned down the offer because of her decision to not act post marriage, Kriti Sanon was signed on to play the leading female role in the film in February 2016 .
The larger than life love story of the duo fills the screen with heartfelt romance that is bound to make you go weak in the knees. The over-two-minutes trailer starts off with the quirky romance of Sushant and Kriti's characters without spilling the beans on their respective backgrounds much. Next comes 'Neerja' actor Jim Sarbh into the picture as the ultimate baddie. In a reincarnation story laced with vengeance, will the duo strive to make their love win is the key takeaway from the trailer. The trailer also includes a recreation of the hit melody 'Raabta' from Saif Ali Khan-starrer 'Agent Vinod'.
Storyline: Raabta is an upcoming Bollywood momvie which will cast Kriti Sanon and Sushant Singh Rajput in lead roles in already in its production process. The movie will be slated in theaters in end of 2016.


text:
Birth pangs: Iraq emerges from years of occupation
24 Dec, 2011 06:42
The American occupation of Iraq saw the fall of the Ba'athist regime, the capture and execution of its deposed leader, Saddam Hussein, and the establishment of a democratic government. But now, nearly nine years later, is the country any better off? (AFP Photo / Khalil Al-Murshidi) © AFP
The withdrawal of US troops from Iraq has left a wave of sectarian violence in its wake. The US says it left a stable country. But it seems that even the largest oil reserves in the world are not enough to purchase the peace Iraqis crave.
RT's Sean Thomas has travelled to Iraq to see for himself what the troops, whose stated aim was to bring democracy and peace, are actually leaving behind as they pack up to head home.It has been shockingly easy for the world to overlook the total costs of this war – at least 114,000 Iraqi civilians killed, as well as 4,500 American soldiers. Millions displaced from their homes, not to mention a one trillion US dollar financial burden. Yet the former occupiers persist in talking up the benefits of their operation, sketching out its legacy in glowing and optimistic terms."I can say with confidence that in the next 20 or 50 years Iraq will be a leader that rivals any country in the Gulf region. I can say that right now Iraq is a safe and secure environment. It is not as safe and secure as it should be or it will be, but it is progressing very well, " Major Shaw, Brigade operation officer of the 1st brigade, 1st cavalry division of the US Army told RT. The American occupation of Iraq saw the fall of the Ba'athist regime, the capture and execution of its deposed leader, Saddam Hussein, and the establishment of a democratic government. But now, nearly nine years later, is the country any better off?"The US troop invasion of Iraq in 2003 and the grave mistakes they committed made the situation here worse. There are so many mistakes committed by the US military leadership, especially in managing the civilian aspects here. This had a negative effect," Major General Hassan Salman of Iraq's army, acknowledged in an interview with RT.In fact, there is a current of opinion here which says it was the American mismanagement of Iraq that led to the rise of sectarian violence in the country."All people, if you ask them who brings the terrorists to Iraq, would say – the USA. Who damaged the infrastructure? They would say – the USA. So I think we and America must cooperate in order to rub out this culture of hate between two peoples," Iraqi political analyst Viktor Aziz Rashael explained to RT. The date for the US troop withdrawal was set in 2008. And while the Obama administration initially tried to extend the deadline, the official transfer of power came 16 days ahead of schedule – on December 16th, 2011."We hope that the future will bring us many good things if the Americans look to the Iraqis in equal balance, not by the view that sees Iraq following the Americans or depending for everything on the Americans," Viktor Aziz Rashael believes. "Iraq has good natural resources, good minds and many people who can develop our country.Right now, the US and Iraqi governments are working on a new type of diplomatic relations – building a new type of trust, if you will. But the next step is in the hands of the Iraqi government to move the country forward.As America's influence has waned, political infighting and sectarian divisions in the Iraqi parliament have diminished as well, giving Iraqis hope for a strong future. "As regards other aspects – civil life, the political and parliamentary aspects as well as the economic aspect – let me say that Iraq has good capabilities that enable it to become one of the developed states," Major General Hassan Salman assured RT. But as Iraq prepares to move past this dark chapter, its people have a message for their former occupiers."To our friends, the Americans: Please do not make another mistake in the world, because your mistake is a grave mistake and it affects your prestige and also your future relations," says Viktor Aziz Rashael.And friends are desperately few in a region where America's reputation now lies in shreds in the eyes of millions.
Operation Iraqi Freedom: Officially over, but just beginning
'US to control Iraq oil always'
'Man of Mass Destruction'? RT challenges Iraq War architect
Secret documents reveal truth about American massacre in Iraq
Worst violence in months hits Baghdad
'US to blame for Iraqi power struggle'


film profile], the feature debut by Swiss director Claude Barras, continues to win over audiences and has pulled off a remarkable double win at the 40th Annecy International Animation Film Festival by snagging the Crystal for a Feature Film and the Audience Award. The gentle, moving, original and upbeat stop-motion film about child abuse was adapted by the filmmaker and Céline Sciamma from the novel Autobiography of a Courgette by Gilles Paris. Produced by Switzerland via Rita Productions, and by France through Blue Spirit Production, Gebeka Films (which will distribute it in French theatres from 19 October), KNM, France 3 Cinéma and Rhône-Alpes Cinéma, My Life as a Courgette is being sold abroad by Indie Sales.
film profile] by French director Sébastien Laudenbach. Produced by Les Films Sauvages together with Les Films Pelléas, this feature debut that was unveiled at Cannes in the alternative ACID (Association for Independent Film Distribution) programme is being sold by Pyramide International and will be released in French theatres in November, courtesy of Shellac.
As for the market, the 31st edition of the Mifa, which received a visit from French President François Hollande, came to a close with a very clean bill of health, boasting an increase in the number of accreditations (2,800 professionals – up 4.5%), the companies in attendance (1,200 – up 4.7%), buyers-distributors and investors (370 – up 1.5%) and the countries represented (68, as against 64 in 2015). Interestingly, 35 projects were presented to possible future partners.


MOUNT VERNON, N.Y. -- Happy Birthday to former Mount Vernon resident Sean Combs.
Sean Combs, who grew up in Mount Vernon, turns 48 Saturday.
Sean John Combs, also known by his stage names Puff Daddy, Puffy, Diddy, and P. Diddy, is an American rapper, record producer, actor, and entrepreneur. He was born Nov. 4, 1969, in Harlem.
Combs worked as a talent director at Uptown Records before founding Bad Boy Records in 1993. He signed The Notorious B.I.G. and profited from the success of the artists he signed.
He released his debut album No Way Out in 1997, which has been certified seven times platinum and was followed by successful albums such as Forever (1999), The Saga Continues... (2001) and Press Play (2006). In 2009, Combs formed the musical group Diddy – Dirty Money and released the critically well-reviewed and commercially successful album Last Train to Paris (2010).
Combs has won two Grammy Awards and two MTV Video Music Awards and is the producer of MTV's Making the Band.
His non-music business ventures include the clothing lines Sean John and "Sean by Sean Combs" – for which he earned a Council of Fashion Designers of America award – a movie production company and two restaurants.


text:
2021 NBA Draft Prop Betting Picks: Best Position Over/Under Bets from The Action Network Podcast
Dia Dipasupil / Getty Images. Pictured: Cade Cunningham
Roberto Arguello
Jul 29, 2021, 01:25 PM EDT
The Action Network's basketball analysts Matt Moore and Brandon Anderson broke down the upcoming NBA draft and shared some of their favorite draft bets on the latest episode of The Action Network podcast.
Check out their in-depth thoughts about some of the latest rumors, who is undervalued, who is overvalued, and what their strategies will be going forward when betting the draft.
All odds listed are via BetMGM and were listed at the time of recording on Wednesday.
BetMGM $1,000 Risk-Free 1st Bet AZ, NJ, PA, MI, WV, IN, IA, TN, VA, CO, DC CLAIM YOUR $1000
Cade Cunningham is -5000 at BetMGM to go first overall. Is there anyone else worth betting to go first?
Brandon: There's no one else I want to bet on to go first. It's possible he goes first to another team, but if the Pistons do choose that he's not their guy, then it has to be a move down from the Pistons. If you want to play something, take Cunningham at +3500 to go second.
Is there any value on Scottie Barnes to go fourth at +225?
Brandon: If you're playing Suggs not to go fourth, I like the value on him to go fifth at +425 much more than betting Barnes to go fourth at +225.
Matt: Suggs to go fifth at BetMGM is +425. The Magic will not let one of Barnes or Suggs go past them. Even if something crazy happens like Kuminga goes third, then the Magic will take Suggs at fifth because he is better than Barnes.
Who Will be Drafted Higher Than People Expect?
Brandon: Jaden Springer.
He is a very high floor prospect because he's good at everything without being great at something, and those type of prospects tend to be undervalued. We love to talk about this guy's jumper, or this guy's defense or this guy's [fill in the blank]. He doesn't really fit that because he has a quieter, more rounded game.
He's a very good defender who really locks in and plays with high energy on that end. He's gonna be a good guard defender. He fits well in a lot of team concepts because he can play on or off the ball. His shooting numbers were good this year though not on super high volume – so there is a little concern there.
His free throws look good. The shot looks confident. He can dribble and pass. He can create for himself or others. He's not great at any of those things. The one concern with him is that he's not super bursty, so he's not gonna beat his guy on his own to get to the rim consistently.
To me, Springer and Suggs are similar because of the understated nature of their game. Springer played hurt this entire season on a sprained ankle that he kept reinjuring. A lot of the reports from the combine were that he looked healthier, and he had that pop again. Of all the things we didn't like about him, if it's that burst, then that jives with a thing that would've been hampered by an injury.
The Tennessee offense didn't have very good spacing whereas Gonzaga had great spacing. Springer is 15 months younger than Suggs. To me, if you give Springer 15 months to get better and ask if he can lead that Gonzaga team to the championship game, I think he can.
I have Springer in my tier with Suggs. I think he has a very high floor to be a very good contributor – think like a George Hill or a Malcolm Brogdon type of player. I think that is a median outcome, but there is a lot more upside. I have him fifth on my board, but his over//under is 22.5. There is a real cognitive dissonance somewhere here. Draft Twitter likes him a lot too, but not as much as me.
Matt: I bet Springer at Under 23.5 at -110 everywhere I could find it when the odds first dropped. Draft Twitter will all latch onto a guy and like him more than the consensus, but he won't get drafted as high as they think he should.
Springer is a high-IQ player. He's a good defender, he's all-around, he's productive, and he's a playmaker. He makes other guys better. His shot release is painfully slow. Coaches believe that getting him to shoot more everyday will help speed that up. On BetMGM, his under is juiced to +110 at 22.5. I think this still has to be a best bet.
Who is Another Player Who Will be Drafted Higher Than People Expect?
Matt: Moses Moody – Little Rock Lightning. I've got a lot of money on Moses Moody unders (his current over/under is 11.5).
He's a high floor player. He's gonna be good. He's gonna score, play defense. He's not gonna be your superstar, but if you're saying we need to nail this pick, Moody is your guy.
Brandon: He's another guy that draft Twitter is very high on. He's young. He's long. His shot is pure and looks great. He's the exact 3 and D guy you want to slot in. He can easily become that kind of 16, 18, or 20 points a game guy in time once he gets more opportunity. What you're hoping for with him is the Warriors at 7 or the Kings at 9 where a team isn't looking to hit a home run but instead hit a double. This is a good fit for a team looking for someone who fit in right now and make a difference on my winning team. Why are you shaking your head at me?
Matt: I feel very confident that the Kings will pick either Franz Wagner or Sengun. If the Kings take someone who's not one of those two guys there, it's because someone fell to them whom they were not expecting to fall to nine. Kuminga would be someone that could fit that. I don't think Moody goes to the Kings at nine.
Brandon: Moody's over/under is 11.5. Your out with Moody is that you can put him on any team in the NBA because every team needs shooters on the wing who can play defense. He's a potential pick for any team because he fits with any construct of a roster. He gives you a slight extra out at any spot after the top five, so I think that the under still makes sense.
Brandon, who do you like best among the International Players?
Brandon: I like Usman Garuba best. I like Garuba and am underwhelmed by Giddey and Sengun.
Garuba reminds me a little bit of Serge Ibaka because he's a Spanish power forward. He's already playing on the Spanish Olympic team (which is impressive because Spain would be the favorite if the USA falters). He's already the best defender in the draft right now. I think he's a classic four who can play five just like Ibaka eventually was. He can switch on the perimeter while also defending the rim.
Offensively, he's more of a play finisher who can play in the dunker spot. I like that he moves naturally and gets into easy spots for good buckets. Being a center on offense isn't a good thing, but he uses that ability well. He can pass in the short roll a little bit. He can play that center role well.
What I'm bummed about is that more NBA teams have an offensively skilled center, like Jokic, KAT, or Vucevic, but need help defensively at the four. I would love to see one of those teams get their hands on Garuba. I'm a Timberwolves fan, and I'd love to see Garuba next to Towns or Evan Mobley or Chet Holmgren.
Matt, who do you like best among the International Players?
Matt: Josh Giddey's over/under is at 10.5 with the under at -200. Even despite that number, I think there might still be value on the under. Last year, Patrick Williams was another late riser, and I had his under in my props article, and he ended up going fourth to the Bulls.
It wasn't just that the Bulls liked him, but there were four different teams that like him, and with Giddey there's something similar. For example, I've heard the Raptors like him a lot, and I wouldn't be shocked to see him go fourth to Toronto.
Oklahoma at six is not someone I will remove from the equation for Giddey. Warriors at seven is in play. The rest is Orlando at eight – which they might trade. Kings at nine is still Wagner or Sengun. But at 10.5, he's probably going to the Grizzlies at 10. I know you hate the juice, but at -200, I still like it.
Brandon: I don't love the juice, but my quick case against him is that he's an incredible passer who can make every creative pass, but I don't trust him as a shooter, scorer, or defender. He's kinda like the thing people thought LaMelo was going to be, but he turned out to be a much better scorer and a little better defender. The thing that people still think Ricky Rubio is, but Rubio is a solid defender. That's my concern, but he's very young and can improve in those areas.
He has a lot of those "you can't teach it" sort of things going for him. Here's the case for the under: international ball is taking over. Every team is terrified of missing on the next great Euro star, and that will push him up the boards. I think the international guys will go higher than expected because people don't want to miss on him.
Thoughts on James Bouknight Over/Under 6.5?
Matt: Bouknight had an incredible 1-on-0 workout with a bunch of people in attendance at the combine and blew them away.
Brandon: Kinda like Yi Jianlian?
Matt: You're the second guy to bring up a Yi Jianlian comparison.
The analytics hate him. He shot 33% on 3s last season, and there's no evidence that he's gonna be a quality shooter, mathematically. Draft Twitter isn't high on him. The consultants aren't high on him.
The execs are very high on him. Extremely high. He has said publicly that he had dinner with Sam Presti, which has a lot of people pencilling him in at six to the Thunder.
The over/under on him is 6.5. I will ultimately tell you that this is a stay-away. The under is -135, and the over is +110. The noise is so strong on him that i can;t recommend the under, but all of my analysis (or analysis-based sources) say over.
A lot of it comes down to this: he's not going 1-4. At five: maybe? It's possible the Magic take Bouknight over Barnes. There's an assumption for him at six which I hate. Why? The worst kept secret is that Oklahoma City desperately wants to move up for a top-four pick. They don't want 1800 picks; they would rather move up and get a better one. Does someone trade down to take Bouknight? It's not impossible, but I have a hard time seeing it. The Thunder also have the tightest-lipped organization in the NBA. Sam Presti telegraphing what he does doesn't sound right. I'm more concerned about Kuminga at six than Bouknight.
Brandon: I agree with everything you said. Bouknight at 6.5 makes no sense to me. We've been talking about how we know who the top five guys are. All that leaves left is just one spot for him to go under 6.5. It doesn't make sense to Oklahoma City.
It doesn't make sense that the Thunder would leak a pick – they always make these picks that don't make sense to us. It seems so obviously that this is not a play, and it seems like a free money play. I'm seeing the "it's a trap" meme in front of me, and maybe they know about a trade up that is lined up, and it's more than I know. It makes sense, and I can't do it.
What are your other Favorite Draft Bets?
Matt: Ayo Dosunmu Under 26.5. There was word earlier this week that he doesn't get past the Lakers at 22. However, there are two other names associated with the Lakers, so maybe that's just agent talk or they liked him and moved on. I do want some cushion with all these, so having four more spots after the Lakers gives me a little more breathing room.
Isaiah Jackson Over 20.5. I think that's probably an over – it's juiced at -120. I think he's more likely to go Knicks at 21 more than anything higher. I just don't think bigs are going to be in that big of a demand this year.
Chris Duarte has slid. He was being talked about as a potential lottery pick. I think one of the reasons for this is because Davion Mitchell is sliding too. Mitchell's over/under is 12.5, and I'm going to bet the over at +100.
Rokas Jokubaitis Under 43.5. He's got a first round interest.
Brandon: I like the under on that one. I've seen him in a lot of high second round mock drafts where you can draft and stash guys.
Matt: Joshua Primo Under 27.5. Both sides on this at BetMGM are at even money, and I like the under.
Brandon: He's the youngest player in the draft. I think there's upside there.
Matt: JT Thor Under 31.5.
Brandon: Yeah I love JT Thor. I have him near late lottery. He's definitely not gonna go late lottery, but I can see some Pascal Siakam development curve in him. He's a guy with defensive skills and a deep skillset.
Are there any general strategies you'll be using heading into the draft when looking for other bets?
Brandon: My M.O. is going to be looking for guys whose over/under is in the 6-20 range, and I'm gonna be looking for overs. Guys projected at the back of it might go sooner, and the guys who are projected at the top of it might slip. I think it's gonna be a weird mix in the middle of the first round.
The must-have app for NBA bettors
The best NBA betting scoreboard


Hang with some of the folks from Taylor Stitch as they takeover an entire suite for a shopping experience unlike most.
You'll be sure to find heavy hitters from Taylor Stitch's assortment, both new and old—and we'll be pouring some of California's finest.
Thursday, March 29 through Sunday, April 1 from 2pm-7pm.


Are There Chemicals in Your Mattress?
Did you know that some memory foam mattresses emit as many as 61 different chemicals? You spend roughly one-third of your life sleeping on your mattress. For this reason, it is no wonder that the chemicals in your mattress may be causing bodily upset. There are a number of problems that may result from using a chemical-filled mattress, including respiratory problems, skin irritation, rashes, increased asthma attacks, and more. This article will overview some of the most common chemicals found in mattresses and why they were included in the first place.
Over time, the materials in your mattress will break down. This is part of natural wear and tear on the mattress and is the reason that mattresses should be replaced every eight years. As the mattress materials break down, chemicals begin to release. These can then be found in the air around your mattress and on the mattress itself, which can cause a number of problems.
Why are Chemicals Added to Mattresses?
By this point, you may be wondering why these chemicals are added to mattresses. In order to help prevent home fires, mattresses must be flame retardant. This will stop them from bursting into flame during a house fire, and can potentially save your life. Unfortunately, the same chemicals that can save your life in a house fire may also result in a number of dangerous side effects.
There is a number of chemicals that can be found in your mattress. As the danger of some of these materials was discovered, they were phased out. Therefore, if you buy a mattress after a certain year, some of the earlier chemicals may have been removed. Unfortunately, other chemicals may have needed to take their place and there is very little regulation because the long-term effects of exposure have not been studied.
This chemical is commonly found in mattresses that were made before 2004. It is a flame retardant chemical and was proven to cause a number of health problems. It is toxic to the nervous system, thyroid, and liver, which is a good reason for it being banned.
The problem with polyurethane foam is that it is a petroleum-based material that breaks down with time. As it breaks down, it releases VOCs or volatile organic compounds. These enter the air of your room and you may be breathing them in, which is the reason that they can cause respiratory issues and other problems.
Boric acid is often used to make mattresses flame retardant, protect from bacteria, and kill roaches. Many companies in the mattress industry state that is safe for use because there have been no related deaths within the 30 years it has been used. However, it is somewhat toxic, especially if ingested. This makes it especially dangerous for use in toddler beds and crib mattresses.
Formaldehyde is another toxic, but "acceptable" chemical that mattress companies often use. It is used as an adhesive, to hold different mattress parts together. Unfortunately, it is also quite dangerous when the chemical is breathed in. It can cause and exacerbate allergies and asthma, and is also known to cause another lung, nose, and throat problems.
Lautaro Martinez, a freelance writer, enjoys his sleep and shares his tips and insights into getting the best night's sleep. If you would like to learn more about Lautaro, you can check out his google+ profile.


text:
Mission Viejo Retail Shops Property Sells for $780/sf
An OC-based family investment entity purchased the 16.6k sf shops component within Avery Center in Mission Viejo for $12.95 mil, or $780/sf. The acquisition includes two fully occupied retail buildings located at 28601 to 28621 Marguerite Pkwy. They were sold by Pacific Castle, also out of Orange County.
Built in 1977 with an extensive renovation completed in 2016, the asset's NNN-leased tenants include Jimmy John's, Epic Wings, Broken Yolk Café, and Big Grill Mongolian BBQ, along with four local retailers.
Located at the signalized intersection of Marguerite Pkwy and Avery Pkwy, the property sees more than 61,000 vehicles daily. It is also located just off the 5 Fwy and is about one mile from Saddleback College, Mission Hospital, and the 1.15 msf regional retail center, The Shops at Mission Viejo.
SRS Investment Properties Group's Patrick Luther and Matthew Mousavi represented Pacific Castle in the deal. John Martin of Lee & Associates repped the buyer, who made the buy as a long-term hold. Additionally, SRS' Terrison Quinn advised the seller on repositioning the renovated center and other leasing activities.
"This multi-tenant transaction was part of a larger break-up strategy for the center," said Mousavi. "SRS recently handled the sale of the adjacent 16k sf, two-story building to First Citizens Bank, as well as a freestanding Del Taco building that sold for a 3.71% cap rate. The final part of the break-up that is currently in escrow is the freestanding Jack in the Box property that will close soon."


text:
Q: Array and module Hello i am working on a program to store a users input of prices into an array. then have a module accept the price array and return tax.  here is what i have so far. my module keeps producing LNK2019.
#include <iostream>
using namespace std;

    double PrArray[20] = {}, total_price, tax_rate, price, tax;
    int i;
    double TAXOWED();
void main()
   {
    cout << "input the sales tax rate as a decimal ";
    cin >> tax_rate;
    cout << "\nplease enter a price or 0 to quit ";
    i = 0;
    cin >> price;
    PrArray[i] = price;
    while (price > 0 && i < 19)
{
    i++;
    cout << "please enter a price or 0 to quit ";
    cin >> price;
    PrArray[i] = price;
}
for (i = 0; i < 19; i++)
{
    cout << "\n";
    cout << PrArray[i];
}

TAXOWED();

system("PAUSE");
return;

}
double TAXOWED(double PrArray[], int i)
{
    double total_tax;
    for (i = 0; i < 19; i++)
{
    tax = tax_rate * PrArray[i];
    total_tax = tax;
}
    return(total_tax);
}

A: Your function declaration and definition don't match
// Declaration
double TAXOWED();

// Definition
double TAXOWED(double PrArray[], int i);

So essentially your are declaring a function and never defining it, then defining a separate function below.

A: Relaying on your comment, the code should looks like this:
#include <iostream>
using namespace std;

double TAXOWED(double price, double tax_rate)
{
    return tax_rate * price;
}

int main()
{
    double PrArray[20], total_tax[20], tax_rate, price;

    cout << "input the sales tax rate as a decimal ";
    cin >> tax_rate;
    cout << "\nplease enter a price or 0 to quit ";
    cin >> price;
    if ( price == 0 )
        return -1;
    int i = 0;
    PrArray[i] = price;
    for (i = 1; i < 20; i++)
    {
        cout << "please enter a price or 0 to quit " ;
        cin >> price;
        PrArray[i] = price;
    }
    for (int i = 0 ; i < 20; i++)
        total_tax[i] = TAXOWED(PrArray[i], tax_rate);
    for (int i = 0; i < 20; i++)
        cout << "Tax for price #" << i << " : " << total_tax[i] << endl;

    system("PAUSE");
    return 0;
}

This code will allow you to set tax_rate, each price value and output tax_rate for each price.

A: Ok this is what i have now. i need the chart at the end to have all the total prices added together
#include <iostream>
using namespace std;
// declerations
double PrArray[20], total_tax[20], tax_rate, price, total_price;
int i;
double TAXOWED(double price, double tax_rate)
{
return tax_rate * price;
}
void main()
{
cout << "input the sales tax rate as a decimal ";
cin >> tax_rate;
cout << "\nplease enter a price or 0 to quit ";
i = 0;
cin >> price;
PrArray[i] = price;
while (price > 0 && i < 19)
{
    i++;
    cout << "please enter a price or 0 to quit ";
    cin >> price;
    PrArray[i] = price;
}

for (int i = 0; i < 20; i++)
{
    total_tax[i] = TAXOWED(PrArray[i], tax_rate);
}

system("CLS");

cout << "                                   Prices";

cout << "\ntaxrate % " << tax_rate;

cout << "\nprices              tax             Total price ";
cout << "\n__________________________________________________";

for (int i = 0; i < 20; i++)
{
    cout << "\n" << PrArray[i] << "                   " << total_tax[i] << "                   " << PrArray[i] + total_tax[i];
}
for (int)
system("PAUSE");
return;

}

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


text:
shit (v.)
Old English scitan, from Proto-Germanic *skit- (source also of North Frisian skitj, Dutch schijten, German scheissen), from PIE root *skei- "to cut, split." The notion is of "separation" from the body (compare Latin excrementum, from excernere "to separate," Old English scearn "dung, muck," from scieran "to cut, shear;" see sharn). It is thus a cousin to science and conscience.
"Shit" is not an acronym. The notion that it is a recent word might be partly because it was taboo from c. 1600 and rarely appeared in print (neither Shakespeare nor the KJV has it), and even in "vulgar" publications of the late 18c. it is disguised by dashes. It drew the wrath of censors as late as 1922 ("Ulysses" and "The Enormous Room"), scandalized magazine subscribers in 1957 (a Hemingway story in "Atlantic Monthly") and was omitted from some dictionaries as recently as 1970 ("Webster's New World").
Extensive slang usage; meaning "to lie, to tease" is from 1934; that of "to disrespect" is from 1903. Shite, now a jocular or slightly euphemistic and chiefly British variant of the noun, formerly a dialectal variant, reflects the vowel in the Old English verb (compare German scheissen); the modern verb has been influenced by the noun. Shat is a humorous past tense form, not etymological, first recorded 18c. To shit bricks "be very frightened" attested by 1961. The connection between fear and involuntary defecation has generated expressions in English since 14c. (the image also is in Latin), and probably also is behind scared shitless (1936).
Alle þe filþ of his magh ['maw'] salle breste out atte his fondament for drede. ["Cursor Mundi," early 14c.]
shit (n.)
Old English scitte "purging, diarrhea," from source of shit (v.). Sense of "excrement" dates from 1580s (Old English had scytel, Middle English shitel for "dung, excrement;" the usual 14c. noun seems to have been turd). Use for "obnoxious person" is at least since 1508; meaning "misfortune, trouble" is attested from 1937. Shit-faced "drunk" is 1960s student slang; shit list is from 1942. Up shit creek "in trouble" is from 1937 (compare salt river). To not give a shit "not care" is from 1922. Pessimistic expression Same shit different day attested by 1989. Shitload (also shit-load) for "a great many" is by 1970. Shitticism is Robert Frost's word for scatological writing.
The expression [the shit hits the fan] is related to, and may well derive from, an old joke. A man in a crowded bar needed to defecate but couldn't find a bathroom, so he went upstairs and used a hole in the floor. Returning, he found everyone had gone except the bartender, who was cowering behind the bar. When the man asked what had happened, the bartender replied, 'Where were you when the shit hit the fan?' [Hugh Rawson, "Wicked Words," 1989]
*skei-
batshit
chicken-shit
horse-shit
jack-shit
shite
shithead
shitten
shitty
shirtless
shirt-sleeves
shirt-waist
shirty
shish kebab


text:
Q: How to forecast one output with multiple features by LSTM model? I am playing with some stocks timeseries data and trying to predict the trend with multivariate features. Below is the sample dataset I have which including different technical indicators including moving average, Parabolic SAR etc for each stocks. From different online sources, most of them are predicting one stock with one feature like "Close" price a time. How can I make use all the stocks' features to predict one output let's say S&P's close price. I know it may not help boosting the prediction accuracy but I am not sure what I am training right now and hope having more insight on LSTM model.

Basically, I put the whole dataset in and do the scaling and training stuffs. How could the prediction being specified on one column?
Code:
scaler = MinMaxScaler(feature_range = (0,1))
scaled_feature_data = scaler.fit_transform(feature_data)
X_train, y_train = training_set[:, :-1], training_set[:, -1]
X_test, y_test = testing_set[:, :-1], testing_set[:, -1]
X_train = X_train.reshape((X_train.shape[0],1,X_train.shape[1]))
X_test = X_test.reshape((X_test.shape[0],1,X_test.shape[1]))
model_lstm.add(LSTM(50, return_sequences = True, input_shape = (X_train.shape[1], X_train.shape[2])))

Model:
model_lstm.add(LSTM(50, return_sequences = True, input_shape = (X_train.shape[1], X_train.shape[2])))
model_lstm.add(Dropout(0.2))
model_lstm.add(LSTM(units=50, return_sequences=True))
model_lstm.add(Dropout(0.2))
model_lstm.add(LSTM(units=50, return_sequences=True))
model_lstm.add(Dropout(0.2))
model_lstm.add(LSTM(units=50))
model_lstm.add(Dropout(0.2))
model_lstm.add(Dense(units=1, activation='relu'))

A: This is a regression problem. You are predicting one variable. So last layers may look like
model_lstm.add(Dense(1))
model_lstm.compile(loss='mse', optimizer='rmsprop')

Also, you probably don't need to return_sequences for each of input tokens. If return_sequences=true, then an output will be a matrix (actually (batch_size, num_tokens, num_features)), that cannot be automatically flattened to vector (batch_size, num_features) that is expected to be an input of Dense(1) layer. Just use an output of a last LSTM node. For this, set return_sequences=false. Its values depends on previous tokens, so you won't lose much information from them.
The whole model may look like this:
model_lstm = Sequential()
model_lstm.add(LSTM(50, return_sequences=False, input_shape=(X_train.shape[1], X_train.shape[2])))
model_lstm.add(Dropout(0.5))
model_lstm.add(Dense(1))
model_lstm.compile(loss='mse', optimizer='rmsprop')

If you want more layers it will become:
model_lstm = Sequential()
model_lstm.add(LSTM(64, return_sequences=True, dropout=0.5, input_shape=(X_train.shape[1], X_train.shape[-1])))
model_lstm.add(Dropout(0.5))
model_lstm.add(LSTM(32, return_sequences=False, dropout=0.5))
model_lstm.add(Dense(1))
model_lstm.compile(loss='mse', optimizer='rmsprop')

A:
Actually I am wondering how can all features, lets say 10 technical indicator features, can help predict the one price column?

Don't know if i understand you correctly.But thats what a ML does, it tries to find corelations between the features and how they can be used to predict something. So maybe, the "DE30" has (or seems to have) a influence on the price and is therfore helpful. Was that your question?

rom different online sources, most of them are predicting one stock with one feature like "Close" price a time
I guess that for simplification. Therefore they used only one feature

Let my know if that was what you asked for..


Nordstrom Rack gives its young and fashionable customers the same high-quality designers at Nordstrom, but at a much more accessible price. Why can't bargain shopping be colorful and fun? That's where this rebrand comes in, starting with a new logo that is modern, fashionable, and bold. Nordstrom Rack's new color palette is bright and fresh. The primary colors and graphic patterns can be mixed and paired with one another to create an endless variety of combinations. As Nordstrom Rack offers its customers items directly from the Nordstrom store, the idea of "re-purposing" older advertisements is expressed through photoshopping the apparel from the model (erasing the model's identity) and mixing and matching with other apparel items, geometric shapes, patterns, and background imagery in a collaged fashion. The advertisements are not about the people modeling the clothes, but the clothes themselves.


It also supports Vivo's thumbprint Smart Split functions. A simple, three-fingered swipe splits the 6.22- inch screen in two so users can chat with their friends while simultaneously watching videos. It supports s Facebook, Line, Messages, Viber, WeChat, WhatsApp, BBM, Play Movies & TV, YouTube, Video, MX Player, VLC for Android, Google Maps, WPS Office, Microsoft Word, Microsoft Excel, Chrome, Gmail, and more.


The coaching clinics are designed to help coaches develop a sound understanding of how to coach the event, building on the technical content presented on the Coaching Assistant and Athletics Coach Award.
These training and education opportunities are aimed to bring together coaches and their athletes to train and develop expertise in their respective fields of interest.
The sessions will involve practical activities using athletes to demonstrate key coaching points with clear take home messages for both coach and athlete going forward.
Who will deliver: The session will be delivered by experienced, national-level coaches who will clearly and simply demonstrate how to develop efficient and effective techniques for the Discus Throw.
Coaches with a Coaching Assistant and Athletics Coach qualification (or equivalent).
Coaches can bring an athlete as a demonstrator on the day.
Places are free to scottishathletics coach members with a valid coaching licence.
Alison, is a UKA Level 3 Performance Coach in Shot Put and Discus and has produced numerous District and National medallists as well as Internationalists in Shot Put, Discus Throw, Hammer Throw and Combined Events.


text:
2018 Biennial Africa House Gala Celebration
April 18, 2018	6:00 pm - 9:00 pm
New Slide
©Goldman: Courtesy of NYU Photo Bureau
On Wednesday, April 18, 2018, NYU Africa House held its Biennial Africa House Gala Celebration at New York University's Kimmel Center for University Life, Rosenthal Pavilion, from 6:00 pm to 9:00 pm. During the gala, we celebrated Africa House's achievements, progress, and vision for the future.
The gala featured a cocktail reception and dinner with African cuisine, special musical entertainment, and the Africa House Awards Presentation. During the presentation, we honored individuals and organizations that embody the spirit and values of Africa House and inspire us in the pursuit of our mission.
Africa House Presidential Award
His Excellency Dr. Jakaya Mrisho Kikwete, Former President of the United Republic of Tanzania (2005 to 2015), Africa House Visiting Scholar in Residence (Spring 2018)
Dr. Jakaya Mrisho Kikwete is a Former President of the United Republic of Tanzania (2005 to 2015). He previously held various key positions as Minister of Foreign Affairs, Minister of Finance and Minister of Energy and Minerals from 1994 to 2005. During and after his presidency, he continued to be active and instrumental in championing a development agenda with a special focus on women and children. Dr. Kikwete has served as the Co-Chair of the UN Commission of Information and Accountability on Women's and Children's Health, Chairperson of the United Nations High Level Panel on the Global Response to Health Crisis, and Chairperson of the African Leaders Malaria Alliance (ALMA).
After his retirement, Dr. Kikwete assumed leadership roles in different capacities as Co-Chair of the UN High Level Advisory Group on Every Woman Every Child; Member of the UN Lead Group on Scaling Up Nutrition, the Global Ambassador for Immunization, Member of the World Malaria Council; Commissioner of the International Education Commission for Financing Global Education Opportunity; Co-Chair of the World Refugee Council; African Union High Level Representative on Libya and; Chairman of the Jakaya Mrisho Kikwete Foundation.
Africa House Leadership Award
Dr. Benedict Oramah, President and Chairman of the Board of Directors of the African Export–Import Bank (Afreximbank)
Dr. Oramah assumed the position of President and Chairman of the Board of Directors of the African Export–Import Bank (Afreximbank) in September 2015. At the 2017 African Banker Awards Ceremony, Dr. Oramah was named the African Banker of the Year.
Prior to his current role, he was the Executive Vice President responsible for Business Development and Corporate Banking (BDCB), a position he occupied from October 2008 to September 2015. As Executive Vice President, Dr. Oramah supervised the Business Development functions, namely: Trade Finance, Project and Export Development Finance, Syndications and Specialized Finance (SSF), and Corporate Finance and Advisory Services (CFAS). He also supervised the Research and Knowledge Management Functions of the Bank. Further, he assisted the then President of the Bank in overseeing the Bank's Strategic Planning and International Cooperation Functions. Dr. Oramah joined Afreximbank as Chief Analyst in 1994 and was promoted to the position of Senior Director, Planning and Business Development in 2007. Prior to joining Afreximbank, he held the position of Assistant Research Manager at the Nigerian Export-Import Bank (NEXIM) from 1992 to 1994.
Dr. Oramah holds an Advanced Management Certificate from Columbia University obtained in 2015, and M.Sc. and Ph.D. Degrees in Agricultural Economics obtained in 1987 and 1991, respectively, from Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Nigeria. He obtained a B.Sc. degree in Agricultural Economics from the University of Ibadan, Nigeria in 1983. He recently published a book titled Foundations of Structured Trade Finance and has written over 35 professional/scholarly articles on a wide range of African economic, trade and trade finance issues.
He is a regular speaker at several trade and trade finance conferences around the world. Dr. Oramah is a Member of the Emerging Markets Advisory Council of the Institute of International Finance (IIF), a Member of the Executive Committee of the Factors Chain International (FCI), a Member of the Consultative Board on the World Cocoa Economy of the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) and a Fellow of the Institute of Credit Administration (FICA). He also serves on the Editorial Boards of Trade and Forfaiting Review (TFR) and the Journal of African Trade (JAT). He is married and has three children.
Africa House Hero Award
Professor Deborah Willis, Ph.D., University Professor and Chair of the Department of Photography and Imaging, Tisch School of the Arts, New York University
Deborah Willis, Ph.D., is University Professor and Chair of the Department of Photography and Imaging at the Tisch School of the Arts at New York University and has an affiliated appointment with the College of Arts and Sciences, Department of Social & Cultural, Africana Studies, where she teaches courses on Photography & Imaging, iconicity, and cultural histories visualizing the black body, women, and gender. Her research examines photography's multifaceted histories, visual culture, the photographic history of Slavery and Emancipation; contemporary women photographers and beauty.
She received the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Fellowship and was a Richard D. Cohen Fellow in African and African American Art, Hutchins Center, Harvard University; a John Simon Guggenheim Fellow, and an Alphonse Fletcher, Jr. Fellow. She has pursued a dual professional career as an art photographer and as one of the nation's leading historians of African American photography and curator of African American culture.
Willis is the author of Posing Beauty: African American Images from the 1890s to the Present; Out [o] Fashion Photography: Embracing Beauty; Reflections in Black: A History of Black Photographers – 1840 to the Present; Let Your Motto be Resistance – African American Portraits; Family History Memory: Photographs by Deborah Willis; VANDERZEE: The Portraits of James VanDerZee; and co-author of The Black Female Body A Photographic History with Carla Williams; Envisioning Emancipation: Black Americans and the End of Slavery with Barbara Krauthamer; and Michelle Obama: The First Lady in Photographs (both titles a NAACP Image Award Winner). She lectures widely and has authored many papers and articles on a range of subjects including The Image of the Black in Western Art, Gordon Parks Life Works, Steidl, Volume II; America's Lens in Double Exposure: Through the African American Lens;"Photographing Between the Lines: Beauty, Politics and the Poetic Vision of Carrie Mae Weems," in Carrie Mae Weems: Three Decades of Photography & Video, and "Malick Sidibé: The Front of the Back View" in Self: Portraiture and Social Identity. Professor Willis is editor of Picturing Us: African American Identity in Photography; and Black Venus 2010: They Called Her "Hottentot", which received the Susan Koppelman Award for the Best Edited Volume in Women's Studies by the Popular Culture/American Culture Association in 2011.
Exhibitions of her art work include: A Sense of Place, Frick, University of Pittsburgh; Regarding Beauty, University of Wisconsin, Interventions in Printmaking: Three Generations of African-American Women, Allentown Museum of Art; A Family Affair, University of South Florida; I am Going to Eatonville, Zora Neale Hurston Museum; Afrique: See you, see me; Progeny: Deborah Willis +Hank Willis Thomas. Gantt Center.
Professor Willis's curated exhibitions include: "Convergence", Joan Mitchell Center, New Orleans; "Out [o] Fashion Photography: Embracing Beauty," Henry Art Gallery, University of Washington, "Visualizing Emancipation," Schomburg Center for Research in Black Culture, "Gordon Parks: 100 Moments," Schomburg Center; "Posing Beauty Let Your Motto Be Resistance: African American Portraits" at the International Center of Photography and, "Social in Practice: The Art of Collaboration", Nathan Cummings Foundation.
In addition to making art, writing and teaching, she has served as a consultant to museums, archives, and educational centers. She has appeared and consulted on media projects including the documentary films such as Through A Lens Darkly, Question Bridge: Black Males, a transmedia project, which received the ICP Infinity Award 2015, and American Photography, PBS Documentary. Since 2006 she has co-organized thematic conferences exploring imaging the black body in the West. Professor Willis has been elected to the board of the Society for Photographic Education, where she was Chair of the Board and received the Honored Educator Award in 2012 and the College Art Association. She holds honorary degrees from Pratt Institute and the Maryland Institute, College of Art. She is currently researching a book on an early 20th century portraitist and educator.
Photo © Tony Powell. 2015 Art In Embassies Reception. Blair House.
Africa House Vision Award
Mr. Kehinde Wiley, Artist
Kehinde Wiley has firmly situated himself within art history's portrait painting tradition. As a contemporary descendent of a long line of portraitists, including Reynolds, Gainsborough, Titian, and Ingres, among others, Wiley engages the signs and visual rhetoric of the heroic, powerful, majestic and the sublime in his representation of urban, black and brown men and women found throughout the world. By applying the visual vocabulary and conventions of glorification, history, wealth and prestige to the subject matter drawn from the urban fabric, the subjects and stylistic references for his paintings are juxtaposed inversions of each other, forcing ambiguity and provocative perplexity to pervade his imagery.
Kehinde Wiley holds a BFA from San Francisco Art Institute; an MFA from Yale University; and an honorary PhD from Rhode Island School of Design. His paintings are in the collections of over forty museums including the National Portrait Gallery, Washington, D.C.; the Los Angeles County Museum of Art; the Hammer Museum, Los Angeles; the Museum of Contemporary Art, Los Angeles; the Metropolitan Museum of Art, New York; and the Brooklyn Museum. Selected museum exhibitions include The National Portrait Gallery, Washington, D.C.; Phoenix Art Museum; Jewish Museum, New York; the Brooklyn Museum; the Petit Palais, Paris; BOZAR, Brussels; the Phoenix Museum of Art; the Toledo Museum of Art; and the Modern, Fort Worth, among others. His work has been the subject of ten monographs to date. Wiley was recently the subject of the documentary, An Economy of Grace (2014, Show of Force).
Wiley was honored in 2015 by the U.S. Department of State with the Medal of Arts award, celebrating his commitment to cultural diplomacy through the visual arts. In February 2018, his portrait of Barack Obama was added to the permanent installation of presidential portraits in the Smithsonian's National Portrait Gallery. He lives and works in New York.
Mr. J. Max Bond, Jr., Architect and Educator
The late J. Max Bond, Jr. was recognized internationally as one of the United States' leading architects and educators. Mr. Bond won early recognition for the design of the Bolgatanga Library in Ghana, and followed that with such projects as the Birmingham Civil Rights Museum, The Martin Luther King, Jr. Center for Nonviolent Social Change, and major research laboratories at Harvard, Columbia and Northwestern Universities. In addition to recognition for award-winning architecture, Mr. Bond established a reputation as a designer who worked closely with his clients and their local communities to understand their needs and project goals. His technical ability, wisdom and insight were resources that served his clients and staff.
Early in his career, Mr. Bond, who was fluent in French, lived in France as a Fulbright Scholar, later working in the office of André Wogenscky. After returning to New York, Mr. Bond ventured to Ghana, where he taught and practiced. Upon his return to the United States, Mr. Bond helped establish and became executive director of the Architects Renewal Committee of Harlem (ARCH), one of the early community design centers that developed during the late 1960s and early 1970s. After two years with ARCH, he cofounded Bond Ryder and Associates, which quickly became one of the leading African-American architecture firms in New York and the East Coast. As a Commissioner of the New York City Planning commission from 1980-1986, Mr. Bond was actively involved in the city's approvals and planning process. Mr. Bond merged his firm with Davis Brody & Associates in 1990 and served as Partner-in-Charge of many of the firm's significant academic and institutional projects.
Yacouba Sissoko, Musician
Yacouba Sissoko was born in Kita, Mali, to a well-known djely family. Djelys for centuries have been the traditional musicians and keepers of the factual history and fables of past rulers, nobles, social groups and families. The kora was the traditional instrument that djelys played.
At the age of 9, Yacouba started learning the kora and the oral traditions associated with it from his grandfather until he moved to Bamako, Mali's capital, to attend the National Institute of the Arts. Based in the capital, he caught the attention of the music world and began touring with noted international African artists which eventually led him to settle in the United States in 1998.
With an intention to introduce and share the stories of his people but also to learn from other musicians and cultures, Yacouba incorporates a variety of musical influences into his repertoire, and as such has developed his own unique style of kora.
He has performed, toured and recorded with well-known African musicians such as Baaba Maal, Sekou (Bambino) Diabate and Kerfala Kante. Yacouba, not limited to African music, has also recorded and performed with a variety of artists including Harry Belafonte, Paul Simon, and Lauren Hill. He has recorded tracks on over 15 CDs.
Rooted to give back to the community, Yacouba regularly performs for cultural programs and benefit concerts. In 2007, in recognition of his commitment to educating others, he was selected as a Teaching Artist by the Weill Music Institute at Carnegie Hall and returned again to Carnegie Hall in 2016, as a featured artists in the Musical Explorers Program in New York, NY and Savannah, GA. He also received a Sunshine Award for Performing Arts, African Music in 2016.
Yacouba continues to blend effortlessly with other musical styles, whether it is performing Indian ragas or Appalachian tunes. Yacouba can be seen regularly touring with Regina Carter, Rachel Brown, Jordana de Lovely, Oran Etkin, Kavita Shah, Benyoro and his own band SIYA. His first solo CD SIYA was released in 2017.
← NYU DRI Talk - Anne Case,…
"Guangzhou Dream Factory"… →