Welcome to the third week of the new Modern. For many of us this is probably the most significant week simply because now is when the new IQ season really kicks off. Yes, there were a few IQ's last week concurrent with the Baltimore Open, but this is the week that stores nationally really started to host tournaments, allowing Modern Spikes to finally start grinding without fear again. As a bonus, this also means that Sheridan's data sample is growing so we can finally start to get an accurate picture of the metagame. With States next weekend, now is the time for deck reevaluation and serious testing.
Despite being qualified I was unable (and slightly unwilling) to travel to Columbus for the Invitational, so instead I attended my local Modern IQ. I also expected to benefit from a softer field since many of the better players who weren't in Columbus were traveling to Albuquerque for the Grand Prix. While I understand the appeal, I won't travel out of state for Sealed GP's. I hate having my fate decided by random number generators and the thought of being at the mercy of my Sealed pool after a lengthy drive isn't my idea of a good time. Constructed GP's are another story; choosing my deck makes me feel like I'm more in control of my fate and makes the trip more palatable.
This should come as no surprise to long-time readers, but I played UW Merfolk again. I've often said that you should play what you know in an uncertain metagame, but I actually didn't want to play Merfolk this time. States is next week and I wanted to get some deck testing in at a more competitive event. Unfortunately, that wasn't possible.
If this looks familiar, that's because it should—my maindeck and board are nearly identical to their pre-Eldrazi configuration. Honestly, I wasn't planning on just reverting to type and running Merfolk again, but when it came down to it nothing else was ready. Ancestral Vision was not the answer to the problems with my Monastery Mentor decks (I'm starting to think I need to take notes from the Legacy Miracles lists), I wasn't confident enough in the metagame to try a deck like Death and Taxes, and I couldn't run my current UW Control list that includes the Thopter combo. The latter because I was absolutely convinced that I still had my set of Sword of the Meek from when I played Thopter Depths in Extended. And I don't. And it was sold out at the local shops. And my online order still hasn't arrived. Frustration.
Following my failure in Detroit, and receiving assurances that Eldrazi would be banned, I knew that I didn't want the Eldrazi-specific cards anymore. Thus I had removed a Harbinger of the Tides and the Sea's Claim in favor of another Master of Waves and a maindeck Kira. Once the unbannings were announced I knew that the format would slow down, if only temporarily, as players tried out the new toys. In a world of control decks Harbinger is just not good enough while Kira is phenomenal, so bringing in another at Harbinger's expense made sense.
When it became apparent that midrange and control would be the most popular choices for the first few weeks, I cut Harbinger entirely. Too often it is just a 2/2 for two and while that's serviceable it's also not very good. Harbinger is your best card against Delver and Grow decks, and strong against Burn and Zoo. The first two are very rare, Burn is already a good matchup, and in the Zoo matchup Harbinger isn't enough to swing things in your favor. All told it's just not a card I want right now. Besides, I wanted counterspells for the expected control and combo decks. Maybe the format will shift toward tempo and Harbinger will be great again but for now I'd leave it at home.
I initially thought that I'd just go back to Unified Will but the ubiquity of Abzan Company changed my mind. It's always been a conditional counter that was dead against creature decks and if Company was big I wanted to avoid playing a blank (and no, Harbinger isn't very effective there either). I was thinking of maindecking Dispel to fight removal and Goryo's Vengeance when I noticed that a lot of control decks were running Spreading Seas. As Mutavault is an important card in those matchups, this seemed bad for me. Then I remembered that Deprive existed. A hard counter that could free my Vaults? Seems good.
The sideboard is quite similar to my Regionals one, just -1 Hibernation and Forge-Tender and +1 Unified Will and Kira. With Thopter and Vision around I expect fewer Kiki-Chord and Burn decks so I don't need as many cards for them, but I do need more cards for control and combo. Will gets the nod over Deprive here because I only bring in counters against decks with few to no creatures. Since I want to counter many different kinds of spells I take a general one over Dispel or Negate.
I arrive at the venue later than expected to find I was right about the field: it was much smaller and lacking in known competitors. I have to rush to register and finish my decklist, so I don't get to scope the field very much.
With only 22 players there would be five rounds and then a cut to Top 8, with a 3-1-1 record being the goal. This is tiny for a Denver area IQ. The late-season "blizzard" (it really wasn't, despite the weather reports) and the GP shrunk the field far more than I expected. This could either be really good or really bad for me—the more unknown the format, the better it is to be aggressive, but also the more likely you will run across something unexpected. It also makes it more likely that other aggressive decks will rise to the top and Merfolk struggles against many of them.
While no one has ever complained to my face, I've gotten enough flak in the comments about using full names that I didn't record them this time. I have never seen Taylor before and have no idea what to expect from her.
I win Rock, Paper, Scissors and start with a mulligan. I lead with Vial and Taylor has Plains into Soul's Attendant. Soul Sisters, lovely. This is actually a pretty good matchup for me since incremental life gain is not very effective against large chunks of damage and their clock is not very fast. The main concern is Honor of the Pure and Spectral Procession.
I use Spreading Seas to dig and then Vial in lords while Taylor plays out a total of four sisters but has no offense thanks to Deprive on Procession and Path on Ajani's Pridemate. Gaining four a turn buys her a number of draw steps, but against twelve damage she just cannot pull ahead or effectively attack back so I win easily.
Nothing. I have nothing I want to bring in and nothing I want to take out. I've heard some people bring in Torpor Orbs against Soul Sisters but if you're going to go that route Chalice of the Void for one seems more effective. My A game is strong enough that I don't need either.
I mulligan into a slow hand with no creatures to cast before Kira, Great Glass-Spinner, but it does have Path, Deprive, and Echoing Truth so I keep. Taylor has Soul Warden into Pridemate into Spectral Procession into Honor, just about the best curve possible, but Path and Truth clean up her offense and buy me the time to get an actual board presence together. It ends up being a race thanks to her Honor, but my size and evasion carry me through her defenses.
Weirdly, we're one of the last matches going. That either means a lot of aggro in the room or variance-fueled blowouts. The last rounds going all involve Junk decks which means my earlier metagame assumptions were correct but could prove difficult to overcome.
Ethan works at the shop and frequently plays the owner's fully foiled (with Expeditions, triple-sleeved) RUG Scapeshift deck. He's also known to go into Jund and his own brews so there's no telling what he's actually playing until he drops his deck during shuffling and reveals Sakura-Tribe Elder.
I mulligan again and keep based on the Deprive in my hand. This doesn't end up working because I draw very few creatures and only Kira sticks. It turns out that Ethan is playing a Bring to Light version of Scapeshift using Gemstone Mine and five-color lands to play all the best removal and Wall of Omens. I counter his first Brought Scapeshift but have no answer to the second.
Knowing Ethan, his deck will have no offensive creatures or permanents that I want to remove so I put in my anti-combo and -control package. Forge-Tender does nothing against Scapeshift but it does stop red sweepers which are far more dangerous.
This time it's Ethan's turn to mulligan, twice in fact, and Aether Vial plus Cursecatcher and Spreading Seas cause him to stall on lands. I drop a Master of the Pearl Trident and Vial in Meddling Mage naming Supreme Verdict with multiple counters in hand to seal the game. Ethan plays Bring to Light into my Cursecatcher just to slow my clock down but I Vial in another threat to finish him.
I mulligan again and get a hand with no blue source but both my Tectonic Edges, Aether Vial, and Cursecatcher so I keep. This works out because Ethan's draw is pretty slow so I have time to get some creatures together, though a Supreme Verdict grinds me to a halt. I Tec twice to stall his kill and try to find creatures that aren't Cursecatcher. Eventually he forces me to use all my Cursecatchers to stop Bring to Light and then he Scapeshifts for 18. That leaves me dead next turn to a topdecked Mountain or burn spell, but I Vial in a Master of Waves for one with a Mutavault in play for exactly lethal.
Despite the close game I'm feeling pretty good with that win. Unfortunately, it was a bit premature.
Remember when I said that I was rushing to register? This bit me Round 3 when it turned out I had written down Master of the Pearl Trident twice instead of Master of Waves. Whoops, game loss. Not that it really mattered.
Turns out that Mario is playing Elves, an appallingly bad matchup, and his hand is really, really good: Heritage Druid into Dwynen's Elite into Elvish Archdruid, hemorrhage hand (including Ezuri) onto board, Chord of Calling for Craterhoof Behemoth. I would have needed many Path's to win that game and I don't even have the white mana to cast them.
The game loss really didn't affect the outcome here. I'm about 15% to win game one and 30% to win games two and three so I was very likely to lose anyway.
This also finally gives me enough time to scout the room. There is no Tron, two other Merfolk decks, a number of Jund and Junk decks, Jeskai Control both with and without Thopter combo, and a lot of Burn. Not unexpected but surprisingly predictable given the small size.
I saw Jason playing round one so I know that he has a very creature-heavy Junk deck that uses Farseek to ramp into Archangel Avacyn and Thragtusk at the expense of removal. My hope is to out-tempo him before he overpowers me.
I have to mulligan another no-lander. All of my mulligans so far have been due to mana trouble and I'm doing it a lot more than normal so I just accept that variance is against me today. I keep a one-lander with Vial since I have a scry and a two draw steps to find another land.
He Abrupt Decays my Vial but I do find the second land to go after his with Spreading Seas and use Deprive against Siege Rhino. He only has a Sylvan Advocate and is restricted on white mana, while my board is made of Cursecatchers and Mutavaults. Accepting that I'm just dead to Maelstrom Pulse, I play the two Master of Waves in my hand and he has no answer.
I know he boards in Reclamation Sage and he's shown how willing he is to kill my Vials. I don't want to be tempted to keep hands based on Vial. Hibernation is amazing against green creatures and I want Kira to protect my Masters.
My one-lander has Cursecatcher, Path, Seas, Silvergill, and Hibernation. With odds of hitting my land drop at 19/53 and 19/52 for my two draws, I keep. It's usually bad to mulligan against GBx and if I do hit my hand is exactly what I want. I don't see my second land until Pathing my own Cursecatcher, and then I don't see another until at length Jason kills me.
Another game, another no-land opening. Variance, ergh. My six is another good one-lander and I scry trying to hit lands and again fail. That is really frustrating.
I should have mulliganed game two, but the potential payoff of the keep was very high if I hit. It's terrible to go to five against a deck with Thoughtseize and Inquisition, both of which he showed me game two, but it might still have been correct. At the very least it may have been less frustrating.
The standings are posted and I am in 11th. Thanks to draws in Swiss only the top six can draw in, so I still have a chance since one nine-pointer will make it in. I need 9th place to lose, the seven-pointer to lose, and to have 10th place's tie breakers go down less than mine will since both my losses will be drawing in. Of course, this all hinges on me winning in the first place.
Paul is a shop regular and I know he's playing Goblins. This is not good. Merfolk might have the best success rate against the field but it is weak against the other tribal creature decks. Elves is far more explosive and unfair, while Goblins is similar to Merfolk but has haste creatures and burn so it's much faster. Fortunately, I play Paul nearly every event we both play in (I swear DCI Recorder is programmed to pair players who play each other frequently) so I know how to play this matchup.
I mulligan again on the draw and Paul leads with Goblin Guide. This doesn't bode well. I have a Vial and pass. Paul misses his land drop, attacks me into another land, and plays Mogg Fanatic. This lets me drop Silvergill Adept with Cursecatcher on standby. Paul still has no land and Fanatics Silvergill to attack with his Guide again.
At this point I'm out of danger as I Vial in 'Catcher, play Merrow Reejerey, then Vial in Lord of Atlantis and just swamp him. He did find his second land but just used it to try and Destructive Revelry my Vial, which I counter with 'Catcher. It's an interesting inclusion that makes sense for a more artifact-heavy metagame, but I think it's a bit optimistic all the same.
Sideboarding against Paul is hard. He's a wildcard and is always trying off-the-wall sideboard strategies. He's used Torpor Orb, Boil, Blood Moon, Rending Volley, and Pyroclasm at various points. Since I know he has and will probably add more Revelrys I remove some targets for more protection against Goblin Grenade.
No mulligans for once but Paul leads with Legion Loyalist, which is actually his scariest draw. The best way for me to win is to just trade creatures until my cantrips pull me ahead on cards and Loyalist makes that impossible. Fortunately, he only has a Mogg Fanatic after I play Cursecatcher.
At this point I can add more creatures to the board, but I have Deprive and all my lands are non-basics so if he did bring in Blood Moon I'm dead. I decide to leave Deprive up and just pass. Paul also passes with three lands. Huh. I just play another land and pass back. The longer the game goes on the better it is for me.
Paul draws, looks at his card and attacks. He has no subtlety and neither does his deck—if he plays like he has Atarka's Command, he has Atarka's Command, which I counter after blocks and trade for his Loyalist. On my turn I just replay my land, cast Kira and pass.
Paul has Goblin Guide and an attack, but at this point I'm well out of danger and start playing Lords. He has a Goblin Piledriver to wall my attacks but I go wide and just swamp him. He reveals that he had several Revelrys in hand with Bolts and Grenades but Kira kept them from being a viable option to stay alive.
Stage One: Complete. Now I have to wait for the other results. I get up to sort my deck and miss the outcome of the 9th vs. 10th game, but I do see that the seven-pointer is playing Grixis vs. Merfolk, so he's not favored to win (he doesn't thanks to Master of Waves in game three). When the announcement is finally made it turns out that the former 9th place made it in. By half a tiebreaking percentage point over me. SO. DAMN. CLOSE.
The Top 8 consists of Merfolk, the Elves and Junk players who beat me, Jeskai Control with Goblin Dark-Dwellers, Burn, Jund, Abzan Company, and a BW Eldrazi Hatebears list very similar to Pascal Maynard's. I was very surprised by this since I didn't think that list was viable, but here it is. I don't know if this is because the deck is well positioned or because he just got lucky, but I've been working on a list similar to that so I hope it's the former.
Well, missing an IQ Top 8 isn't so bad and I did get some insight into the metagame. The usual suspects are out in force but control players are emerging thanks to Ancestral Vision.
I only saw one Thopter player, who was 1-2-1 when I checked after round four, having fallen to his deck's inconsistency and slowness. In the games I saw, he struggled to draw his pieces in the right order early enough to matter. I think this is common enough and the optimal Thopter list is still elusive, but you should pack graveyard hate regardless. This inconsistency probably means you'll see it most often in Tezzerator builds, though Gerry Thompson's deck might change things.
There were also a number of Lantern players and a Burning Bridge deck with Isochron Scepter, so make sure you can answer Ensnaring Bridge.
I intend to test extensively and would like to try out something different for States this weekend, but we'll see how it goes. Conventional wisdom seems to be to play what you already know, but I've never been one to stick to convention.
Can we see the top 8 decklists of that IQ?
Sounds like variance in that Abzan matchup cost you a shot at the top 8. Unfortunate. I think you should consider siding out all of your Vials and bringing in more creatures, though – Abzan is going to slow the game down even when you win, so Vial's acceleration doesn't matter as much (and you would much rather it be a body). Rest in Peace can also be decent against Goyf and Ooze.
I do have a bone to pick with your description of the Goblins matchup, though – your list might struggle against it, but I think you should recognize that your list is pretty far from the stock Merfolk list. Those of us that play Harbingers and Tidebinders barely break a sweat against the Gobbos (or the Zoo variants that seem to be doing quite well, for that matter). The Tidebinders could also help you compete against Elves (still a bad matchup, though).
I do board out all or most of my Vials against GBx for the reasons you state, I only left in one this time because I really didn't want anything else and since I knew he was removal light the acceleration from one could have been good. RiP is not where I want to be against Junk since against most of the deck it's a blank, and while it may be less of a blank than Vial it's still not going to save you from removal and discard into Siege Rhino.
And I knew you'd bring that up, and what you say has not been borne out by Paul's results. He regularly stomps the more stock Merfolk lists. He frequently plays around Harbinger and the Loyalist draw just crushes people, especially with Atarka's Command and Goblin Rabblemaster. Tidebinder is frequently a minor speedbump for him since he tends to go removal heavy and has been known to mulligan for Piledriver and go wide with tokens. Not saying that his list or methods are stock or even normal for Goblins players, but I'm the only Merfolk player that gives him trouble because my counters and Path are more disruptive to him than the typical Merfolk deck.
That does not jive with my experience, nor with what has been discussed on the Merfolk thread. I can honestly say Goblins and Zoo are easy matchups for my list, and only the inexperienced members of the community have reported any trouble against them. On the issue of methods, Dismember (which has a home in many a Merfolk 75) addresses Piledriver nicely, but truth be told, he's typically not that much of a problem (given the existence of Mutavault). Paul is probably a good player and negotiates the matchup better than most, but I would never consider the matchup unfavorable in blanket terms the way you did.
I suspect this is because my version is positioned differently than the version that you, and indeed most Merfolk players, play. The mono/nearly-mono blue decks are more strongly pure aggro/tempo while I'm going for aggro-control. Zoo and similar true aggro are underrepresented in the Denver area metagame while Burn, control and combo are relatively common, so I aim for more interaction with those decks and that moves me towards a slower gameplan that is indeed more vulnerable to Zoo and Goblins. The trade-off is that I don't fear control decks, Protean Hulk, or Ensnaring Bridge.
I would go a step farther and not even bother people's names at all. The number of readers who know "jim" are negligible. "He" or "she" is fine. Frankly the more you get into the habits and such of your regular opponents the less credible the report gets. It's nice that you know Pete plays goblins – but if anything it means you have an advantage the avg reader wouldn't – or its simply useless information. Maybe just me but the more familiar someone is with the opponent the more it reads like kitchen table magic – you delve more into the person and less into the deck or cards. I care what grixis does, I could not care less what bill does.
The thing is that the names really aren't for the readers it is for my opponents. When I'm talking about their decks they deserve the credit they're due and I cite my sources.
I don't think someone needs "credit" for playing in an event where someone else wrote a tournament report. Hell if they make egregious play errors they might prefer to actually be left in obscurity.
Anyways, as a reader (we outnumber your opponents) I find it at best pointless, at worst distracting enough to diminish how I view the quality of the content. Stakes are low either way, act accordingly.
I actually prefer the names. I think it makes it more relatable to a normal tournament environment. When I play someone, I write their name and deck type. I thought that was common practice. Maybe I'm wrong but either way its not a big deal whether the writer, writes his opponents name or not in the articles. I'm more impressed that the writer is not using a stock list. Maybe next time he'll top 8.


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Human Capital & Careers
Out Out Damned Plan
CFOs say they save money by outsourcing non-core functions like pension plans. But few have the hard numbers to prove it.
By Joan Urdang	| May 29, 2002
Joan UrdangMay 29, 2002
Does outsourcing really save money?
According to a new survey, nine out of ten CFOs say outsourcing non-core functions increases shareholder value.
An impressive number, to say the least. There's just one hitch: most of those surveyed finance chiefs seem to have based their assumptions on gut feelings, not quantitative analysis. Only 17 percent of the finance chiefs actually measured the return-on-investment associated with the outsourcing projects.
Those that actually indicated they measure the ROI on outsourcing said they the identified an average 17 percent reduction in pre-outsourcing expenses over the last year. That group also expects to reduce expense by the same amount by the end of 2002.
The survey, conducted by — big surprise — outsourcing consulting firm Hewitt Associates, included 500 CFOs and senior finance executives at large companies ($1 billion or more in annual revenues).
The study found that information technology was the most frequently outsourced function. Human resources services (41 percent) and facilities management (40 percent) came in second and third on the list.
Like other studies, the Hewitt survey concluded that the most frequently outsourced HR function is defined benefit and defined contribution plan administration (64 percent).
A similar trend is found in joint research from the Society for Human Resource Management and the Bureau of National Affairs. The report, "2000-2001 Human Resource Activities, Budgets & Staffs," found that 31 percent of the executives polled said that they outsourced all or part of their pension and retirement plans, up from 27 percent in the 1999-2000 survey. Only employee assistance programs ranked higher (47 percent) as a candidate for outsourcing.
So why do so many companies outsource pension and retirement plans? As plans grow, they need more professional management, says Roger Williamson, vice president of finance at Sun Chemical Corp. But budget constraints make it hard to get approval for an employee whose sole job would be to serve as administrator.
Having the function under one roof — albeit somebody else's roof — makes plan administration more controllable and efficient, claims Williamson.
Williamson began outsourcing the defined benefit portion of Sun Chemical's pension plan to Chicago's Northern Trust Global Advisors Inc. last November. But he says his move was not related to the Enron pension fiasco. Mostly, he says the urge to outsource was triggered by the souring economy. In fact, the process of outsourcing plan administration had been in the works for close to two years at Sun.
In general, industry watchers say managers at small and midsize companies are more inclined to outsource their pension and defined benefits administration. "Defined benefit plan outsourcing has been around for about four years," says Mike Meegan, a senior vice president at Northern Trust.
At first, says Meegan, managers at small companies began to outsource the plans so they could focus on their core businesses. But with the ongoing economic slump, executives at larger companies are considering outsourcing as a way to relieve cost pressures and reduce risk.
Sun's Williamson says executives who are considering outsourcing their pension plans need to make sure a vendor will be in business next year. And Keven Rochford, managing director at Northern Trust, says that outsourcing pension plan administration does not relieve a company of all its fiduciary responsibilities. While some types of risk, such as custodial, can be shared with an outside administrator, the bulk of fiduciary responsibilities are still shouldered by a plan sponsor, he says.
(Editor's note: To read a related story on how companies are dealing with the decline in pension plan investment gains — and hence a decline in corporate earnings — click here.)
More in Human Capital & Careers

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package com.oprisnik.semdroid.evaluation.integer;

import java.util.HashSet;
import java.util.Set;

/**
 * Evaluation results.
 */
public class EvaluationResult {

    private String mName;

    private int mTotal = 0;
    private int mFalsePositives = 0;
    private int mFalseNegatives = 0;
    private int mCorrect = 0;
    private int mWrong = 0;

    private Set<EvaluationResult> mParents;

    public EvaluationResult(String name) {
        mName = name;
        mParents = new HashSet<EvaluationResult>();
    }

    public String getName() {
        return mName;
    }

    public void setName(String name) {
        mName = name;
    }

    public void increaseCorrect() {
        increaseCorrect(1);
    }

    public void increaseCorrect(int amount) {
        mCorrect += amount;
        mTotal += amount;
        if (mParents.size() > 0) {
            for (EvaluationResult r : mParents) {
                r.increaseCorrect(amount);
            }
        }
    }

    public void increaseFalsePositives() {
        increaseFalsePositives(1);
    }

    public void increaseFalsePositives(int amount) {
        mFalsePositives += amount;
//        mTotal += amount;
        mWrong += amount;
        if (mParents.size() > 0) {
            for (EvaluationResult r : mParents) {
                r.increaseFalsePositives(amount);
            }
        }
    }

    public void increaseFalseNegatives() {
        increaseFalseNegatives(1);
    }

    public void increaseFalseNegatives(int amount) {
        mFalseNegatives += amount;
        mTotal += amount;
        mWrong += amount;
        if (mParents.size() > 0) {
            for (EvaluationResult r : mParents) {
                r.increaseFalseNegatives(amount);
            }
        }
    }

    public int getTotal() {
        return mTotal;
    }

    public int getFalsePositives() {
        return mFalsePositives;
    }

    public int getFalseNegatives() {
        return mFalseNegatives;
    }

    public int getCorrect() {
        return mCorrect;
    }

    public int getWrong() {
        return mWrong;
    }

    public int getPercentCorrect() {
        return Math.round(getPercentCorrectFloat() * 100f);
    }

    public float getPercentCorrectFloat() {
        return (float) mCorrect / (float) mTotal;
    }

    @Override
    public String toString() {
        StringBuilder sb = new StringBuilder();
        sb.append("Name: " + mName);
        sb.append("\nTotal: " + mTotal);
        sb.append("\nCorrect: " + mCorrect);
        sb.append(" => " + getPercentCorrect() + "%");
        sb.append("\nWrong: " + mWrong);
        sb.append("\nFalse positives: " + mFalsePositives);
        sb.append("\nFalse negatives: " + mFalseNegatives);
        return sb.toString();
    }

    protected void attach(EvaluationResult parent) {
        mParents.add(parent);
        parent.increaseCorrect(getCorrect());
        parent.increaseFalseNegatives(getFalseNegatives());
        parent.increaseFalsePositives(getFalsePositives());
    }

    protected void detach(EvaluationResult parent) {
        mParents.remove(parent);
        parent.increaseCorrect(-getCorrect());
        parent.increaseFalseNegatives(-getFalseNegatives());
        parent.increaseFalsePositives(-getFalsePositives());
    }
}

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaGithub


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Thomas Skordas
Directorate General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology (DG CONNECT)
Director "Digital Excellence and Science Infrastructure"
Thomas Skordas received his diploma in Electrical Engineering in 1984 and a PhD in Computer Science in 1988. From 1988 to 1995, he worked in France as a Research Fellow and project leader in EU-funded R&D projects in the areas of Information Technology and Robotics.
In 1995, Thomas joined the European Commission as a Research Programme Officer in the Directorate General Information Society & Media (DG INFSO). Ever since, Thomas worked in various units of DG INFSO (which, in 2012 became DG CONNECT) dealing with ICT research in the context of EU's Research and Innovation Framework Programmes. From 2006 to 2009, he was Deputy Head of Unit in ICT Security and Trust. In 2009, he was appointed Head of the Photonics Unit and in 2014, Head of the Flagships Unit.
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text:
Benoit Hardy-Vallée
28 - On the possible futures of work and leadership - a conversation with Dustin W. Seale
***We are very proud to announce that Abrupt Future was ranked no. 9 on that list of "Top Workforce Management Podcasts You Must Follow in 2021" by Feedspot***
Listen on this blog, Apple Podcast, Spotify, Anchor and other platforms.
Dustin W. Seale is a partner in Heidrick & Struggles' London office and managing partner of Heidrick Consulting in Europe. He focuses on CEO and board advisory, specifically on improving leadership and talent, and transforming organizations through culture
Dustin built a model to think about the future of work around 2 vectors
(1) how quickly does the economy rebound from the disruption from the pandemics (from a prolonged recession to a quick rebound)
(2) social trust- how safe do we feel with one another? from a health and a social standpoint with the institutions we interact with. (from low social trust to high social trust)
Scenario 1: Digital enclaves – quick rebound and low social trust. Narrower digital spaces with people who think alike which starts to splinter organizations or countries or societies
Scenario 2: Tech-powered humanity - quick rebound, but high trust. A world in which the economy has come back and we have learned from the disruption and are leveraging technology in ways that we hadn't imagined. People value the face-to-face connection,
Scenario 3: Growing divide - prolonged recession and low trust creating division between the digital haves and the non-digital have nots, with less trust in our institutions and of one another.
Scenario 4: In this together - prolonged recession and high trust. A bumpy road for organizations and our economies, but people bind together to solve these challenges together. And there's a high level of connection in teams, in organizations and across society
The impact of the pandemics on C-suite leadership:
As a client CEO of Dustin said, everything is an educated guess. The world, going forward, is a series of disruptions and this is not going to calm down - labor shortages, supply chain disruptions, division in Western societies, etc.
For leaders in the C-suite two capacities are critical and interlinked. One is foresight, which is living in the future or potential futures and noticing the ripples, the changes that you're feeling from that future. The second is being comfortable with ambiguity, disruption and constant change. The leaders that are distinguishing themselves lean into it and see change and disruption not as a threat, but as an opportunity.
Heidrick & Struggles found that of all the expectations that employees have from their C-suite leaders only two (out of eight) have moved significantly - nearly two standard deviations.
Number one is purpose: not the purpose that organizations have plastered on their wall and refer to occasionally, but truly living and embodying a purpose of an organization beyond the profit, the positive impact on the world, helping every person in the organization to connect with the purpose. It is not a surprise, since the pandemic has highlighted that people want to be doing something bigger than just work.
The second is trust: "do I believe in you, do I believe in where you're taking us", does the leaders' actions and words match the need amongst people. That sense of trust moved considerably. Everything you need to do from the C-suite needs to match actions and words so that if someone is remote, they know you and trust you.
They also look at the key derailers in the C-suite. There are ten - seven of the top 10 all have to do with the ability to create clarity and prioritize, to do the right things. Leaders must be able to create clarity and help organizations prioritize money and energy
Heidrick & Struggles have been looking at the biggest differentiator for companies during the pandemic.
The biggest drivers of performance for organizations is collaboration and change.
Organizations that have outperformed through the pandemic have high levels of collaboration across organizational boundaries - within teams, but also across teams. They have a natural tendency towards collaboration that has to start at the top.
Change means changing the way we think, the way we engage, the way we work. We all need coaching. Every one of us. This means C-level executives, coaching each other, not just their people, and coaching upward to their CEO and to their board. That culture is going to be critical going forward.
The next generation joining the work world is the millennials and Gen Z.
We need to look at the world they grow up in. It's different from the one we grew up in. They've grown up in a world where the world is meeting their bespoke needs and their sense of self. Children nowadays have never grown up in a world where they didn't have a screen on which they could choose, which app they want, etc. Those apps created communities and access. They're building their digital life, which is a big part of how they interact with friends. Their expectations of leaders and the culture around them are going to be different
Currently, leadership's impact on sustainability and inclusion is not inspiring.
Announcing sustainability targets for 2030, for instance, is relatively meaningless to most of the population, especially the leaders, all of which will be retired by then. You can have targets for that point in time but what is more important is what are you going to measure this next quarter? What are you going to change? What's going to happen in six months. What's going to happen in a year? The key is to get to that level of specificity around meeting those targets - it has to be broken down and it has to be turned into reality.
On inclusion: most organizations have woken up to the fact that diverse and inclusive organizations outperform. They also know that they could literally lose their license to trade if the face of the organization doesn't match their consumer or customer base. They can see that there are some existential threats if they don't tackle this problem.
They've tackled inclusion in two different directions, both of which are not bad, but incomplete. One is simply addressing representation, hiring people of different backgrounds so that the complexion of the organization looks different. The second is running training courses and helping people see unconscious biases to start to open the conversation. Billions has been spent on biases training and there's no evidence that it changes the level of inclusion.
We need to raise diversity and inclusion to a strategic priority, tied to the strategic ambitions of the organization to build that internal and external pipeline of talent. It requires a truly inclusive culture, a change in the way the organization works to make that new talent create a place where they will thrive and where you can actually get the best out of diversity to drive different outcomes
If you measure sales every single week and culture every couple of years, what do you think your organization thinks is important to you?
On hybrid work.
90% of people are asking for flexibility. Historically the company-employee relationship has been parent-child and going forward it's an adult-to-adult relationship—transparent conversations, productive conflicts, getting different views out to make better decisions and come up with better solutions.
Collaboration is a habit and it needs to be reinforced and rewarded.
Heidrick & Struggles surveyed CEOs around the world and asked two questions. (1) which cultural elements are critical to your strategic ambition (2) which cultural elements are strongest in your organization; and was there a match between those two questions? The answer was, not a lot.
From Cognition to Innovation: The Power of Building on the Knowledge of Others (Season 2 ep. 3)
Preparing for the Workplace of Tomorrow: 33 Podcast Insights
The Role of Assessments in Talent Management (Season 2 episode 2)


text:
Jockeying and fisticuffs en route to the greatest scoop in a generation
By Bill Sanderson
Photo credit: Walt Cisco
Merriman Smith liked being front and center among the reporters who covered presidential motorcades. On November 22, 1963, Smitty–everyone called him that–was, as always, poised for the battle to get the story first and right. Smitty took the middle front-seat spot next to the radiotelephone in what reporters called the wire car, a blue hardtop Chevy near the front of President Kennedy's motorcade.
Sitting by the phone suited Smith, a gadget freak who liked anything that got his stories out quicker. The radiotelephone, a two-way radio link to the Dallas telephone exchange, would let Smith inform his editors instantly of anything that happened on the motorcade route. Smitty's insistence on sitting next to the radiotelephone was something of a joke to his colleagues, since he was usually the only reporter who wanted to use it. His non-wire service competitors didn't care as much about being in constant touch with their offices. Even if the car didn't have a radiotelephone, Smitty might have insisted on sitting in front. In motorcades, he demanded choice, front-seat spots he believed he needed and deserved as a White House reporter whose job was to always be with the president.
Smitty's insistence on sitting next to the radiotelephone was something of a joke to his colleagues, since he was usually the only reporter who wanted to use it.
With Smith in the wire car that day was Jack Bell of the Associated Press. Sometimes, AP and UPI reporters took turns sitting by the radiotelephone. It might have been the AP's turn to sit next to the phone that day. Bell either didn't know or didn't care. He usually covered the Senate, and was not a White House regular like Smitty. Bell sat in the back seat, with two other pool reporters, Robert Baskin of The Dallas Morning News and Bob Clark of ABC News. In the front, the driver was on Smith's left. Kennedy's deputy press secretary, Malcolm Kilduff, was on Smith's right.
Smitty, 48, and Bell, 59, were longtime rivals. They stood next to each other at Harry Truman's first presidential news conference in 1945, and competed covering Thomas Dewey's 1948 presidential campaign. Smith respected Bell enough to praise him as "a fine, tough, competitive reporter" and an expert questioner on the Sunday TV political shows on which they sometimes appeared together. Bell was an expert on the Senate's arcane machinations, and was on a first-name basis with the capital's top politicians.
Merriman Smith put the first report of the Dallas shooting on the UPI wire five minutes ahead of the AP. Veteran journalist Bill Sanderson describes how Smith scored one of the 20th century's greatest scoops in this excerpt from his new book out this week, Bulletins from Dallas. Smith won a Pulitzer for his narrative of JFK's assassination printed in newspapers the next day. Credit: Skyhorse Publishing
But Bell was not known for covering breaking news. If something happened in the motorcade, there was no doubt who would get the story first. When it came to breaking news, Smitty was a gunfighter. "Jack Bell was a very nice man," said Robert MacNeil, who was in Dallas that day for NBC News. "But he was a rather more passive reporter and less aggressive reporter than Smitty."
The motorcade headed out of Love Field at about 11:50 a.m., five minutes behind schedule.
Thousands of excited, cheering people lined Dallas's downtown skyscraper canyon hoping for a glimpse of the glamorous president and first lady.
On its way out of downtown Dallas, the motorcade turned right from Main Street onto North Houston Street, on the eastern side of Dealey Plaza. Next, a short block north, the cars turned sharply left, about 120 degrees, onto Elm Street in front of the Texas School Book Depository, on the plaza's northern side. In the wire car, Smith and Kilduff chatted about how well the trip seemed to be going. Kennedy's car was moving at about 11 miles per hour, heading toward an underpass beneath railroad tracks where three roads converged.
President John F. Kennedy and Jacqueline Kennedy arrive at Love Field, Dallas, Texas. Kennedy was assassinated later in the day.
Above, at a sixth-floor window in the Book Depository, Lee Harvey Oswald waited until just after the presidential limousine passed below. At 12:30 p.m., he fired three shots.
Oswald's first shot sounded to Mrs. Kennedy like "a motorcycle noise." She heard Texas Governor John Connally cry out from his seat in front of the president. "My God, they are going to kill us all," Connally said.
The First Lady saw a flesh-colored piece of her husband's skull torn off. Then, she said, "he slumped on my lap, his blood and brains were in my lap." "Oh my God, they have shot my husband," she said, cradling him. "I love you, Jack."
The reporters weren't sure what the first sound was. "There was a loud bang as though a giant firecracker had exploded in the caverns between the tall buildings," wrote Bell. Then they heard the next two shots. Smith owned several guns. "The second and third blasts were unmistakable. Gunfire," he wrote in his story for the next day's morning newspapers.
The wire car stopped. "Everybody in our car began shouting at the driver to pull up closer to the president's car," Smith wrote. As they did so, Kennedy's limousine and motorcycle escort roared away at high speed.
"We screamed at our driver, 'Get going, get going,'" Smith wrote. The wire car steered around Lyndon Johnson's car–Smith didn't say how jittery Secret Service agents and cops reacted to this dodgy maneuver. The wire car was "barely able to keep in sight of the president's car and the accompanying Secret Service follow-up car."
Smith now took advantage of his seat by the wire car's radiotelephone. He picked up the handset and called the Dallas UPI bureau. "Bulletin precede!" he shouted. By shouting "bulletin precede," Smith informed the bureau that he had news that would supersede the other Kennedy stories he had filed so far that day.
Then, Smith yelled: "Three shots were fired at the motorcade!"
"What? I can't hear you," answered Wilborn Hampton, a novice reporter who'd picked up the phone in the UPI office. Static afflicted radiotelephones. "There was a great deal of interference on the circuit," Smith recounted later. But Hampton had no problems with the connection. "I heard Smitty perfectly. He was screaming at the top of his lungs," he said.
Hampton typed out Smith's sentence–he thought his fingers fumbled as he took down the words. He handed the typed copy to Jim Tolbert, a Teletype operator. Tolbert prepared to transmit the bulletin by retyping it on a machine that converted the words into a long strip of punch paper tape.
As Tolbert typed, Hampton handed the phone to Jack Fallon, UPI's Southwest division director. Fallon was sitting at another Teletype machine, typing out a message to UPI's Austin bureau about coverage plans for Kennedy's visit there later in the day.
"Jack, this is Smitty on the phone," Hampton said.
"Yeah, what is it? What does he want?" Fallon sounded as if he didn't want to be bothered.
"He says three shots were fired at the motorcade."
"What?!" Fallon yelled. "Give me that!" Fallon grabbed the phone, and Hampton showed him a carbon copy of the dispatch he had just written.
Fallon quickly read the two lines. "Send it!" he yelled to Tolbert.
At the time, the A-wire was under the control of UPI's Chicago bureau, which was transmitting an account of a murder trial in Minneapolis. Fallon pressed a "break" lever on his terminal that cut off the Minneapolis story in mid-sentence. Then he fed the punch paper tape coded with the bulletin into the terminal.
The bulletin said:
PRECEDE KENNEDY
DALLAS, OV. #22 (UPI) – THREE SHOTS FIRED AT PRESIDENT KENNEDY'S MOTORCADE TODAY IN DOWNTOWN DALLAS. JT1234PCS..
Everything was capital letters on the wire services in those days. The typos in the dateline didn't stop anyone from understanding the news. The last bit of the dispatch included Tolbert's initials and the time it was sent, 12:34 p.m. Central Standard Time–four minutes after Oswald fired his three shots.
On AP machines, there was nothing–because back in the wire car, Smith was hogging the radiotelephone.
After the bulletin ran, Chicago tried to resume sending the murder trial story. Editors at UPI's New York headquarters immediately stopped the Chicago transmission, and sent out this terse message in wire-ese: "BUOS . . . UPHOLD DA IT YRS NX." Translation: "All bureaus, hold your copy—Dallas, the A-wire is yours. New York." Next, the Atlanta bureau tried to correct a story. It only managed to transmit "CORRECTE" before New York jumped in again: "BUOS UPHOLD—NX."
On AP machines, there was nothing–because back in the wire car, Smith was hogging the radiotelephone. He scrunched down under the dashboard. "Repeat my bulletin back to me!" Smith shouted into the handset. The other reporters in the car thought the yelling was a ruse. They heard clear voices on the other end of the line.
Jack Bell wanted his turn on the phone. As the wire car raced to the hospital at 60 miles per hour, the AP man tried to grab the phone from Smith. "Give me the goddamn phone!" Bell yelled. He swung his fists into Smith's back. Bell realized Smith was beating him on a big story.
Kennedy's open-top limousine pulled into Parkland Hospital at about 12:36 p.m., six minutes after the shooting. The wire car was just behind it. Finally, Smith relinquished the phone. Bell immediately called the AP's Dallas bureau. "This is Jack Bell," he said. The line went dead, but Bell kept talking. He shouted that three shots had been fired at Kennedy's motorcade. When he realized no one could hear him, he tried to get an operator. But the phone was still dead.
He swung his fists into Smith's back. Bell realized Smith was beating him on a big story.
While Bell tried to call the AP bureau, Smith and the others jumped out of the car and dashed up to the limousine in the emergency room ambulance bay. It was a scene of blood-soaked horror. "The president was face-down on the back seat. Mrs. Kennedy made a cradle of her arms around the President's head and bent over him as if she were whispering to him," Smith wrote.
"Governor Connally was on his back on the floor of the car, his head and shoulders resting on the arm of his wife, Nellie, who kept shaking her head and shaking with dry sobs. Blood oozed from the front of the governor's suit.
"I could not see the president's wound. But I could see blood spattered around the interior of the rear seat and a dark stain spreading down the right side of the president's dark gray suit."
Smith turned to Secret Service agent Clint Hill. "How badly was he hit, Clint?" he asked.
"He's dead, Smitty," Hill replied.
The hospital gurneys hadn't even arrived yet.
Smith ran into the hospital's emergency entrance. Inside he saw a clerk. On a shelf behind the clerk was a telephone.
"How do you get outside?" Smith asked. "The president has been shot and this is an emergency call."
"Dial nine," said the startled clerk. Smith tried twice before he got through to the Dallas UPI bureau with a fresh dispatch.
Fallon wanted to send this news as a flash, the designation reserved for the very biggest stories. Tolbert was seated at the Dallas bureau Teletype terminal that controlled the UPI A-wire. Tolbert typed Fallon's words directly onto the wire, without bothering with paper tape:
"Kennedy seriously wounded—"
Bill Payette, the UPI Southwest Division vice president, overheard Fallon's dictation. He ordered a revision: The flash was to use the word "perhaps." So in those seconds, Tolbert typed this slightly awkward dispatch directly onto the A-wire:
PERHAPS SERIOUSLY
PERHAPS FATALLY BY ASSASSINS BULLET
JT1239PCS
The flash moved at 12:39 p.m. Nine minutes had passed since the shots in Dealey Plaza, and Smitty had already sent several dispatches that put UPI ahead on the story.
His competitors at the AP were just getting started. At 12:39 p.m., five minutes after Smitty's first report of shots fired, the AP finally moved its first dispatch to Teletype machines west of the Mississippi. Because of a quirk in the AP's transmission system, it wasn't until 12:40 p.m. that the news moved on Teletypes east of the Mississippi. The AP was behind UPI's Smitty, who died in 1970, on one of the biggest stories of the century.
Bill Sanderson is a veteran journalist whose newspaper resume includes the Concord Monitor in New Hampshire, the Bergen Record in New Jersey, and the New York Post. He's also written for The Wall Street Journal, MarketWatch.com, and Politico NY. He lives in New York.


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Batman Begins (Blu-ray)
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Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1 (Blu-ray)
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince (Blu-ray)
Harry Potter: Years 1-5 (Blu-ray)
The Hurt Locker (Blu-ray)
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I, Robot (Blu-ray)
Inception (Blu-ray)
The Incredibles (Blu-ray)
Inglourious Basterds (Blu-ray)
The Island (Blu-ray)
Kick-Ass (Blu-ray)
Law Abiding Citizen (Blu-ray)
Leon: The Professional (Blu-ray)
The Lincoln Lawyer (Blu-ray)
Looper (Blu-ray)
The Lord of the Rings: The Motion Picture Trilogy -- Special Extended Edition (Blu-ray)
Lost: The Complete Fifth Season: The Journey Back -- Expanded Edition (Blu-ray)
Lost: The Complete First Season (Blu-ray)
Lost: The Complete Fourth Season: The Expanded Experience (Blu-ray)
Lost: The Complete Second Season (Blu-ray)
Lost: The Complete Sixth Season: The Final Season (Blu-ray)
Lost: The Complete Third Season (Blu-ray)
Man on Fire (Blu-ray)
Marvel's The Avengers (Blu-ray)
Minority Report (Blu-ray)
Moneyball (Blu-ray)
Comment: Looking for 2-disc or 3-disc with slipcover
Nausicaa of the Valley of the Wind (Blu-ray)
Now You See Me (Blu-ray)
Ocean's Eleven -- 2001 Remake (Blu-ray)
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (Blu-ray)
Comment: 2-Disc with slipcover
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (Blu-ray)
Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl (Blu-ray)
Predestination (Blu-ray)
The Prestige (Blu-ray)
Comment: Custom printed artwork
Princess Mononoke (Blu-ray)
The Rock (Blu-ray)
The Rundown (Blu-ray)
The Running Man (Blu-ray)
Serenity (Blu-ray)
The Shawshank Redemption (Blu-ray)
Slumdog Millionaire (Blu-ray)
The Social Network (Blu-ray)
Taken (Blu-ray)
Total Recall (Blu-ray)
Up (Blu-ray)
V for Vendetta (Blu-ray)
Wall-E (Blu-ray)
Comment: 3-Disc with slipcover and unused digital copy
Watchmen -- Director's Cut (Blu-ray)
Comment: With slip cover and unused digital copy
Wreck-It Ralph (Blu-ray)
The Wrestler (Blu-ray)
Comment: Rental sticker on disc.
X-Men Origins: Wolverine (Blu-ray)
Comment: Single disc with "Rental exclusive" artwork. With slipcover.
Zombieland (Blu-ray)
Cube (DVD)
Cube 2: Hypercube (DVD)
Cube Zero (DVD)
Matchstick Men (DVD)
Nausicaa of the Valley of the Wind (DVD)
Comment: 2-Disc.
Princess Mononoke (DVD)
Serenity -- Collector's Edition (DVD)
Steamboy (DVD)
Comment: Printed artwork.