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How Social Networks Change Strategy, Prediction and Decision-Making
By Christopher Rollyson
Unusual strategy & management guide shows how to use social data to solve complex problems
Book Review: Everything Is Obvious* Once You Know the Answer/Duncan J. Watts
Everything Is Obvious* is an excellent how-to guide to understanding how social networks change strategy, prediction and decision-making. It offers practical techniques and profound insights for using social networks, big data and new ways of thinking to solve complex problems in business and government.
Intriguingly, the book also cites research that debunks several social media sacred cows.
Watts has an interesting point of view because he combines several disciplines: he began his career as a physicist before moving into sociology, so he strives to combine the quantitative, experimental methods of physics with maddeningly complex social problems. Moreover, he's been running practical experiments at Yahoo! for several years, using search, Web and social data. Watts backs up his assertions with primary research that he has led or in which he has participated. He is also a very engaging writer.
I also highly recommend "Obvious" because it enables the reader to question commonsense thinking that s/he uses in cases where s/he oughtn't—and that clients use. This affords a new level of flexibility and insight because common sense is so pervasive and leads us astray so regularly.
My analysis and conclusions follow the outline of each chapter.
One of the key constructs of the book is that there are two kinds of problems and systems that frame decision making: simple and complex. Simple are the most common, and common sense is invaluable to solving them. Complex problems and systems, however, are a different animal that we are only beginning to understand. They involve mind-boggling interdependencies, so we really cannot perceive them, much less respond to them effectively. Big data is beginning to lift the veil, but only just. It turns out that, even to develop a perception of the world's complex systems, we have to reduce their complexity astronomically, which causes us to make faulty decisions (we don't know how to reduce them, so we slash and burn).
We are better at simple systems. Common sense is very effective at helping us make discrete social decisions every day, where the context is very defined. This causes us to value it highly. Watts ends up proposing to develop another lens, which he calls uncommon sense. It relies on big data to guide our decision making.
Part I: Debunking Common Sense and Other Decision-making Fallacies
Part One is a necessary but enjoyable discovery process into "common sense," which is so common that almost no one knows what it is! Seriously. This is intensely interesting and useful; you will undoubtedly learn very practical things that will help you in your work. It exposes many flaws in human decision making about social issues and problems. It debunks common sense, which strongly affects how people think about complex systems. People are not aware of common sense or how they rely on it, so they make unfortunate decisions.
One: The Myth of Common Sense
Common sense is very context-specific. Formal social rules exist, but how they are applied is subject to complex and nuanced social rules, many of which are unspoken. This chapter delves into its essence and defines it (which is surprisingly difficult to do).
Common sense is so ordinary that we're often not aware of it ("we don't have to know, it's common sense"!); it helps us with social applications of complex social rules.
Common sense overwhelmingly practical, not theoretical; it's about how, not why; it's focused on dealing with concrete situations—in their own terms.
"… [that] what is self-evident to one person can be seen as silly by another should give us pause about the reliability of common sense as a basis for understanding the world. How can we be confident that what we believe is right when someone else feels equally strongly that it's wrong—especially when we can't articulate why we think we're right in the first place?"
Common sense generally works in everyday life, which is effectively broken up into small problems, grounded in very specific contexts that we can solve more or less independently of one another. However, when we use it to solve complex problems, it's a massive failure.
Our mental model of collective (human) behavior is flawed because our common sense runs on context, which is missing in complex systems that require nuanced decision making; marketers, government officials and economists deal with large numbers of people; they "model" demographics, and use concepts like "representative individuals," "personas," "the market," or "the electorate." These are often based on common sense and are massively distorted.
We learn less from history than we think—because we only notice and codify what we think is interesting; we fail to account for most of the data, which we filter out to create "the story" part of history.
Two: Thinking About Thinking
How common sense warps our understanding of how individual people make decisions.
The belief that people are "rational," make choices based on reasons we think we understand, but do not.
The need to understand people's true, root incentives, which manifest in behavior; this is different from superimposing our own beliefs on others' behavior.
Confirmation bias and motivated reasoning: people take in, give preference to, information that reinforces what they already believe; they subject dis-confirming information to higher scrutiny (think about the adoption of new technologies).
The frame problem, the circularity of relevance: "it is relevant when it's relevant." We learn in retrospect what is relevant.
Using common sense to predict others' behavior is fraught with risk; once we see the behavior, we invent reasons for why it occurred, then we assume we have "learned" and can predict future behavior, but we fail to take into account all the data and interdependencies. This is a big problem when we try to create incentives to engineer social change.
Our ability to make sense of behavior we have observed does not imply an ability to predict behavior.
Three: The Wisdom (And Madness) of Crowds
How common sense leads us astray when we try to predict the decisions are large numbers of people. Watts doesn't reference the power law by name, but it's woven in here, too.
Instances of circular reasoning: what becomes famous, what gets pervasive adoption, is interpreted after the fact. Even "experts" see what's famous and justify popularity based on the features of popular things.
The Mona Lisa, an ordinary painting that became the most famous in the world; it's the most famous because it's recognized as the best.
Facebook's popularity explained by showing that it had the features that people "wanted" in a social network, but no one knew these ahead of time. Explanations of Facebook's success are less relevant than they seem.
The micro-macro problem: we analyze behavior of a small number of people—and extrapolate it onto large numbers to try to predict "emergence" of phenomena, what will become popular.
Part of the answer may lie in combining disciplines (i.e. biology and data analysis).
The "convenient fiction" of the "representative agent" (personas, demographics); it reduces complexity and increases risk.
The example of the tendency to riot: Mark Granovetter's analysis; the threshold of social influence (that leads to action). Granovetter's social influence models show the risks of reducing out complexity:
In Town1, in a fictitious crowd of 100, each member has tendency to riot of n+1. Person1 will start rioting with no social influence; person2 requires one person already rioting, so he starts, and the domino effect trashes the town
Town2 has a 100 person crowd that's identical except the person with a threshold of three is missing, and there are two people with a threshold of four, which breaks the chain, and Town2 remains intact; however, community leaders will find "social" reasons for the difference without perceiving the root cause
Illustrates the dangers of using a small sample and extrapolating
Cumulative advantage: people tend to like something other people like. Watts' Music Lab experiment; parallel social music networks except some had features showing what other people liked, so they measured social influence.
Social influence increases inequality and unpredictability; makes the product's "inherent qualities" less important.
Four: Special People
This by itself is worth many times the price of the book. Profound: human bias and common sense hold that "influencers," "stars" or "hubs" in social networks have the ability to "influence" large numbers of people. Based on Watts' experiments and analyses, influencers have, at best, small marginal abilities to influence. Far more potent are the real-time dynamics of the network, which are complex and difficult to discern. However, people don't like to believe this, so they hold onto the fallacy of "influencers."
Debunking a key construct in Stanley Milgram's test of the "six degrees of separation" experiment, which speculated that hyperconnected "hubs" or "stars" were key to understanding how "six degrees" worked (they made the chains shorter). Wrong, Watts learned when he reran the experiment using far larger numbers of people, analyzing email threads and using modern statistical methods. Where Milgram had used physical packets and 300 people, Watts et al used 60,000 people in 166 countries. No hubs.
Social networks are connected in far more complex ways than we can imagine (but we assume that we can understand them, which prevents us from understanding them). The concept of "hubs" is a common sense fail.
Gladwell falls for it in The Tipping Point, but it's more perception than reality.
Contagion: "the law of the few" is far less potent that people want to believe: contagion depends far more on the overall structure of the network than on the properties of the individuals who happen to trigger it.
More important than individual actors is the existence of a critical mass of easily influenced people [who happen to be in the configuration at the time.. or not], which appears to be random [because we don't understand it; this is emotionally unsatisfying to common sense, so people ignore it].
Learning from a Yahoo! study of viral tweets and videos; don't only study successes, which invokes the circular problem; study failures. They simulated a marketing process in which they analyzed data on past "successes" and selected "influencers" for sponsored tweets. Individual-level predictions very noisy; they found no reliable characteristics of "successful influencers."
"Special people" function primarily to help us reduce the complexity of reality; but the concept is far less useful than we want to believe.
Five: History, The Fickle Teacher
This is a mind-bender with a powerful insight: our understanding of the past is grounded in narrative, which necessarily reduces complexity and implies causality. Watts implies that we cannot understand the past honestly due to our need to reduce the complexity of all the things that were happening that we omit from the story. This lays the ground work for a more important problem: predicting the future.
History is only run once; but we expect to "learn" from it, so we persuade ourselves. It is another example of circular reasoning, which describes but doesn't explain.
The difficulty in experimenting with humans; social context may be missed, which unknowingly bypasses crucial causes/effects.
Sampling bias; we notice exceptions but ignore the normal; exceptions are more "interesting"; we leave out most of the data; especially problematic when the subject is events that happen rarely, like wars or plane crashes.
The Post-hoc Fallacy; imagined causes; Malcolm Gladwell's "law of the few" is a poster child; Paul Revere vs. William Dawes; we don't have the data to really conclude why Revere "succeeded" and Dawes did not [but that doesn't stop us!].
Debunking the "superspreaders" theory of the SARS epidemic of 2003; the real cause was the misdiagnosis and treatment of pneumonia; the not the patient. The separate apartment building outbreak was caused by leaky plumbing, not a superspreader.
History can't be told while it's happening; hard to differentiate the "why" from the "what"; we select the facts to tell the story; there's too much data, so we simplify, but it's likely that we omit key data; to say what is "happening," implies a narrative. Examples:
Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid; if you ended the story a month before they'd been surrounded and gunned down, their decision to go to Bolivia would have been declared a success; by the end of the film, though, they were dead, so we conclude it wasn't a good decision. In real life, we don't know when "the ending is," so how to draw conclusions?
Cisco's vacillation between darling and failure on Wall Street through the 1990s and 2000s. Same CEO, too
Whoever tells the story best wins. History is story.
Psychology experiments: simple stories consistently judged more credible—because they are simpler.
In (natural) science, we can test the stories in experiments.
Confusion between stories and theories is at the root of the problem with using common sense to understand the world.
Six: The Dream of Prediction
Chapter six starts getting to the practical point of the book: how do we predict the behavior of large numbers of people? [which is another way of saying "predict the future"] It turns out that "natural science" is a false friend of social science. Social "scientists" have had "physics envy" for years; they want to believe that, as Newton and Kepler could predict orbits, we should be able to predict behavior. Watts finds this to be false because natural systems are relatively simple; human networks are complex and subject to far more variables.
Newton's laws and Laplace's Demon; humans' desire to apply "scientific" prediction to "history"; it's a debacle.
Simple vs. complex systems. Orbits are the former, human networks and societies the latter. Most scientific models describe simple systems. Complexity involves "many interdependent components interacting in nonlinear ways." Small changes in the system can get amplified to produce large effects [or maybe not].
The future is not like the past; the past is our narrative, which blots out most of the data; probability tries to account for all the data it can manage to predict things that may be likely to occur in the future.
By "prediction," we really mean that we want to know what will actually happen, not the probability that various outcomes might happen. In other words, we want to force the future into our small "narrative experience." [You can imagine how well that works.]
The problem of predicting what to predict: what's "relevant" can't be known until later.
Black swans are only recognized in retrospect; the example of the storming of the Bastille in 1789, how it acquired significance later. How black swans differ from plane crashes, which are difficult, but at least we know what we're trying to predict; black swans require predicting even further into the future to understand what is relevant—before we can even think about predicting the black swan.
In fact, black swans are not events, they are really shorthand for large chunks of interconnected events.
When we look into the past, we see [our dumbed down perception of] what actually happened; we ignore far more numerous outcomes that could have happened but didn't.
"History" conveniently "forgets" inconvenient facts and enables us to tell a good story.
The problems of government policy, corporate strategy or marketing campaigns affect large numbers of people, so their context is complex systems. The need for "uncommon sense."
Part II is more prescriptive; Watts explores how to take our imperfect abilities and make the best of them to improve sociology, economics and decision-making.
Seven: The Best-Laid Plans
Uncommon sense for strategy. Even though we can't predict the future, or the outcomes of interactions of complex systems, we can still improve our decision-making by working with probability about outcomes. This forces us, though, to change the way we plan and create strategy.
Two kinds of events that occur in complex systems: those the conform to a historical pattern and those that don't; we can only work with the former kind (which still helps us).
Big data is helping: amounts of flu vaccine and credit card default rates; can't predict to the individual, but we can predict percentages of large groups.
But probability doesn't help us to predict something individual such as, "Will this book be a bestseller?"
Review of prediction markets, statistics and crowdsourcing: results more complicated than it appears.
Yahoo comparative prediction study: predicting outcomes of sporting events: "predicted" NFL games using two polls, two prediction markets and two simple statistical models. All performed about the same, 3% spread between the best (one of the prediction markets) and the worst (a statistical model).
Repeated with baseball; best and worst "predictions" indistinguishable.
Lesson: the basic information (like home team advantage) helps a lot; more specific information incremental at best.
Increments can be relevant in stock trading or other scenarios when large numbers of transactions are happening; but in business that's rarely the case.
Do not use a single person's opinion, especially your own: humans are decent at perceiving what factors are potentially relevant to a problem, but we are bad at estimating how important one factor is relative to another (in other words, what variables matter). Experts are no better, and their results are worsened because they are usually used one at a time. You would get better results by polling many people and taking the average (Wisdom of Crowds approach).
The more in advance you want to predict, the greater the error. Results from experiments with predicting popular movies, books, election results the same.
Most predictions are forgotten [thankfully, our track record is so bad]; few people revisit them, which would potentially be the most useful exercise of all.
But be aware that the biggest opportunities are the black swans, things that aren't predictable. The financial crisis of 2007-2009, the overthrow of dictators. Historical data is of no help with them.
Strategy and planning. As practiced, it exhibits the same problem; it lays out the "future narrative" and makes decisions based on that. Examples of Sony Betamax, Apple iPod; Michael Raynor's The Strategy Paradox.
Recommendation: change the model; work with most probable outcomes and design business process for flexibility. Scenario envisioning. Reaction, not prediction.
Eight: the Measure of All Things
Uncommon sense for business. Concludes that "predicting the future" is off the table for us; but we can manage more effectively by changing the model—away from prediction toward measure/respond (Raynor's thesis).
Examples of measure/respond: Zara; Yahoo blind-testing home page designs prior to release (bucket testing).
The mullet strategy for websites and blogs; put the comments on pages that are deeply buried and, based on the crowd's reaction, selectively promote the pages.
Journalism and crowdsourcing; the Huffington Post: they have thousands of unpaid bloggers. TV measure and respond: Bravo.
Mechanical Turk; turkers far more diverse and representative than researchers believed at first.
"Predicting the present" by using Web searches; predicting flu epidemics with Yahoo and Google searches. Facebook's "gross national happiness" index based on status updates. Twitter and Foursquare.
Using large numbers of search queries to predict film success or "hot 100" rankings; it does offer small but reliable advantage over other public data.
Advertising; we are starting to crack the code; advertisers traditionally claim to offer causation, but they really measure correlation; advertising can't prove that it causes an outcome, but they can correlate increased advertising with certain outcomes. Not the same thing. The need for experiments and controls. Online, what the user sees is subject to numerous unrelated technologies, which clouds simple experiments' results. Targeted ads.
The importance of the marginal customer," who is influenced by the ad to buy when s/he would not have bought otherwise.
Discussion of Yahoo experiments; getting there in measuring advertisings' results. The hope of big data.
The importance of local knowledge in creating plans; take data from the environment in which the plan will be deployed [and the more data the better]. Some examples are cap and trade, market-based mechanisms; prize competitions, Innocentive.
Other ways to use local knowledge; "bright spots" and bootstrapping—not "solving"; the latter refers to top-down aid programs; the former study instances of innovation within the application space and promotes them (Charles Sabel). Ask what's working—and what could work if obstacles were removed.
Planners think they know the answer; searchers admit they don't know, but they observe and experiment within the application space (William Easterly).
Don't neglect the profound human tendency and desire to predict; it crops up constantly, leading people to mislead themselves.
Nine: Fairness and Justice
Uncommon sense for justice and "social fairness," which is relevant to business and government. Introduces new ways to think about problems by examining them from a larger scale perspective. In chapter nine, Watts debunks common sense in this context while he suggests uncommon sense approaches.
How common sense introduces unfairness in society. Cites the case of Joseph Gray, an off-duty cop driving home after too many drinks who kills the wife and kids of another man. He gets fifteen years, but many other drunk drivers go free. Common sense leads us to punish the outcome, not the behavior; maybe there's no way around this. Revisits formal rules vs. how they are applied. Social value of making examples. But it isn't "fair."
The Halo Effect; common sense correlates independent variables; for example, physical looks with intelligence. Firms and CEOs; remember Cisco, which was alternately glorified and vilified, even with the same CEO.
Skill vs. luck: problems measuring individuals' performance; fund managers, bankers, employees and pay for performance. The example of baseball batting averages.. but employees deal in complex systems more often (baseball is relatively simple). Asserts that individuals, regardless of "talent," have far less impact that the environment in which they operate ("the network").
Robert Merton and The Matthew Effect: successful people are more likely to be successful. Talent is rarely evaluated on its own terms. All these are distortions.
The myth of the corporate (CEO) savior. Rakjesh Khurana: "the CEO often less important than outside factors." CEO selection is flawed because the candidate pool is small, which leads to huge compensation.
What is a "just" society? Robert Nozick and John Rawls.
Concludes that arguments about individual compensation should be conducted at the industry, not the individual, level (in other words, how much does an industry contribute to society, i.e. banking). Make banking less lucrative by limiting the amount of leverage banks may use.
The distribution of wealth reflects reflects a series of choices a society has made, but in complex ways of which people are unaware (i.e. tax policy, complex legislation).
In 2007-2010, banks succeeded in having it both ways: they managed to privatize profits and socialize losses; this is inconsistent.
Social networks have a counterintuitive insight for "individual freedom": we can never be "free" because we are so interconnected, and results we achieve are caused by network dynamics, probably much more than our individual decisions. This casts doubt on one of our most cherished beliefs, "individual performance" based on talent.
Michael Sandel's Justice; argues that fairness has to take into account the network effect; evaluate competing claims to give perspective to isolated claims.
Ten: The Proper Study of Mankind
Chapter ten is a summary of sorts. It addresses how to use data and awareness of networks to make sociology more relevant. Useful debunk of warped commonsense thinking about "the Internet" and society, based on research Watts and colleagues have conducted at Yahoo.
Robert Merton's "middle range" theories; don't aim to solve complex problems with physics ("high range"); aim for incremental improvements using network data.
Social theorists are people too, and they fall for common sense all the time.
Big data is going to change the game.
The homophily ("birds of a feather") principle; turns out that individual choice is far less relevant than how the environment limits alternative choices people have.
Debunking the commonsense view that "the Internet polarizes people."
Yahoo's Facebook experiments with users predicting their friends' stances on political and economic issues.
Friends more similar than strangers, and close friends more similar than friends.
But all friends believe themselves to be more similar to each other than they actually are.
People bad at guessing their friends' positions. Researchers found that people don't know what their friends think. They use simple stereotypes to guess instead.
Simple correlations are often obvious, but how "obvious" things fit together is very difficult.
Analysis and Conclusions
One of the biggest takeaways is the book's powerful description of what it means to live in the networked world. Watts is no SNA quant, but he vividly describes the reality in which we've always lived but have never perceived.
We are surrounded by networks, but it's never been so obvious ;^). The universe is a cloud of interdependent forces. Nature runs on networks; the systems within our bodies and brains are networks. Digital social networks serve as a model that affords an inkling of what networks are and how they act. Think about the points in Chapter Nine, for example. Watts shows (and provides some evidence for) that the state of the network at a certain moment has a greater bearing on the effect "any individual" will create than the individual. I find this very unsatisfactory, emotionally, because I want to believe that my will and skill can make the difference. If Watts is right, it is deeply humbling.
However, Watts does not address the impact of network construction, so I'll offer this: I'll give him that the network is vital and perhaps more important in determining outcomes than any individual; however, this does not negate the power of building a network of committed people or businesses around you or your brand, which will increase the chance that your actions will have a larger impact, not because they are "special people," but because they will tend to advocate for you. Reciprocal altruism will provide an advantage.
As to how important the network is versus the individual, I think much more research will have to be conducted to determine those dynamics. For the time being, Watts gives the reader a real sense for the network and how we sabotage ourselves by being careless with the data.
Watts' "influencer debunk" is worth thousands of dollars of wasted "sponsored tweets" ;^)
Citing his research at Yahoo, Watts makes a convincing argument that social information increases the volatility of markets and usurps influence from the "product features" because people decide to "like" it or not based on others' opinions. This is something I've seen constantly but couldn't verify, so his team's research is an excellent reference.
Common Sense and How We Think
"Obvious" gives numerous examples of how people filter out data they don't understand or want to deal with. If you think about it, this is adaptive. Human beings, from an evolutionary perspective, weren't "designed" to deal with large amounts of data or complexity. We were "designed" to manage our lives within the tribe, a task for which common sense is well suited.
However, during the past 200 years, the scale of human systems and interconnectedness has grown beyond our abilities to manage, so our blunders are growing in size. Watts makes this clear, and he's honest enough to state our limitations without offering a pat solution to the problem; the way he presents "uncommon sense," it is very much a work in progress. He makes a major contribution by drawing our attention to our profound limitations.
Try thinking about large scale, intractable problems that you read and hear about constantly. My money is on Watts, that if we eradicate the common sense from the decision making process, we will have a better chance at successful resolution.
Watts exposes many of the situations in which our decision making is flawed. Our tendency is to scale things down to a level where we can deal with them. The micro-macro problem is a useful example. It is not "elegant" to believe the truth: dynamics of the network trump the "influence" of any member any time. We believe in "influencers" because it's convenient, we like the thought. But it's largely false.
Being aware of common sense can enable you to use it more purposefully as a tool. For people (like yours truly) who are often dealing with complex systems, it is exceedingly useful to be aware of simple vs. complex systems. That said, as Watts warns, it would be a mistake to get overconfident; common sense is second nature to us, so it is very difficult to be aware of when we are using it. Keep in mind that everyone uses it, and few people are aware of it.
On an emotional level, I think common sense is comfortable; it implies intimacy and safety; Watts doesn't address this, but I'll hazard that people use it more often and more rigidly when they are under stress. As cited research indicates, people prefer simpler stories.
Along with this, think about how common sense evolved, in the tribe, where social context determined relevance. It doesn't have to abstract thought because life is comprised of hyperlocal concerns. Life is far more complex for many people now, so common sense is maladaptive for an increasing range of situations.
Another key takeaway: understanding the difference between describing (as history) and explaining, which implies the abstract patterns necessary to try to predict something.
Chapter Ten's discussion and debunk of the conventional wisdom that "the Internet is polarizing people" is very useful, especially since he backs his assertion with his team's research.
Complex Systems, Predictions and Strategy
Although Watts doesn't focus on it (that would be a book in itself), he states several times that complex systems are complicated due to massive interdependencies among the nodes. Regarding human systems, since we have the ability to think, and therefore free will, that dramatically increases the range of possible responses to stimuli among people. Natural systems, like stars, plants and simpler animals, lack the abstraction, so their responses to stimuli are more predictable and their systems have fewer possible outcomes.
Chapter Three's discussion of circularity makes the point: popular things are popular. Chapter Nine's discussion of The Matthew Effect is another instance. And it's the network that determines the popularity, it's not the person or object, nor is it an "influencer."
I agree with Watts' thesis, that complex systems are normally beyond us [because we have not had to deal with them before]. We can mitigate that risk by recognizing our fallibility and by using our increasing capabilities with data to stack the deck in our favor.
As a management consultant and executive, I have practiced "sense and respond" (I call it "agile") for years and find it highly effective. CSRA usually practices strategy by creating a decision framework based on robust due diligence into market mechanisms and their implications for the business.
"Obvious" offers the possibility of changing one's attitude and approach toward uncertainty. Watts implies that we reduce the world's complexity down to our scale in our desire to survive and feel comfortable (one feels more comfortable when one perceives that one knows what is happening). This is okay when we deal with simple systems. In the realm of the complex, it seems more adaptive to recognize that we don't know much of what is occurring, and to respect the unknown. Recognize the most reliable known variables in the situation and try to identify and correct for as many unknowns as we can address.
Chapter Eight contrasts top-down aid programs with bottom-up "local knowledge." In the former, planners "think they know" what the issues are (and often don't), so their programs are often wasteful and marginally effective. Conversely, supporting and empowering local knowledge can have a breakthrough effect because it incorporates implicit knowledge. CSRA has used this realization on client work for years: management consultants too often serve the "planner" role and do clients and themselves no good. By consciously involving clients on engagements, we tap local knowledge.
I found Watts' discussion of black swans and the "relevance problem" very useful. It is very practical. Instead of focusing on outcomes, identify mechanisms and inter-dependencies with whose workings you are familiar. Networks are comprised of pieces that interconnect, so being aware of how some of their components work can be a useful guide.
This is not an overtly philosophical book, but it is replete with delightful implications. Chapter Five implies that we create "history" somewhat arbitrarily because it's the only way we can think and tell a story. So it is really our poor attempt to describe our perceptions. Watts doesn't say this, but it's implied that there is little difference between past and future; there's much more data than we can deal with; it's just that the future doesn't have a "story" yet. We recognize that we don't know what "will happen." We think we know "what happened." But we don't!
December 11th, 2012 | Tags: Analysis, Development, Enterprise, Evolutionary, Government, Howto, Management, Relationship, Review, Social network, Sociology, Strategy | Category: Social Business, Society & Culture
4 comments to How Social Networks Change Strategy, Prediction and Decision-Making
Big Data Practical Primer: Junk Charts' Kaiser Fung
30 July 2013 at 15:35 · Reply
[…] data can be challenging to wrap one's mind around. I wrote about this in more detail in my Everything Is Obvious review (sections six and […]
Why Probability Is the Key to Profit in the Digital Big-Data Age
30 October 2013 at 00:55 · Reply
[…] book is a perfect twin to Duncan Watts' Everything Is Obvious* Once You Know the Answer, which exposes how common sense pervades management decisions and failure. I shall refer to several […]
Big Data Practical Primer: Junk Charts' Kaiser Fung | Executive's Guide to Social Networks
5 January 2014 at 17:24 · Reply
Why Probability Is the Key to Profit in the Digital Social Big-Data Age | Social Network Roadmap
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When the runner up for the REPS male personal trainer of the year for 2018 opens a CrossFit gym, you better bet the emphasis is going to be on good coaching. Abu Dhabi CrossFit trainer Gilbert Dougherty, the 27-year-old owner of LIFT CrossFit at Abu Dhabi University in Mohammed bin Zayed City, insists his coaches have at least five years of experience – and add to their knowledge with new coursework, taken at a minimum of every six months.
But all that emphasis on form and function doesn't come at the expense of something else Dougherty wants to offer his customers: a very good time.
The company's tagline is, after all, "bringing the party to CrossFit," and Dougherty wants to build a real sense of belonging and community, as people spend more and more time on getting fit and staying healthy.
"It's about bringing energy to a class, bringing friendships together," he says.
Lift CrossFit offers all the latest amenities in a 180-square-meter space for mixed classes and 150 square meters for ladies-only.
Dougherty was always active, participating in Olympic weightlifting before finding CrossFit. But he traces his deep love for fitness back to when he was 19, studying sports science.
After seeing a doctor because he was losing weight and experiencing night sweating, he was diagnosed with lymphoma.
Training got him through a year of treatment, when he was restricted from most activities due to his low immunity.
All these years later Dougherty doesn't worry much about his health – but he does want others to feel all the benefits of fitness that he has.
Giveaway alert! LIFT is giving a lucky livehealthy.ae reader two free personal training sessions. In these two sessions, you can learn the very basics and be prepped for CrossFit sessions – or to continue privately. To enter for a chance to win, follow livehealthy.ae on Instagram and tag a friend on the LIFT CrossFit giveaway post.
Editor's note: This article has been amended to reflect that Gilbert Dougherty is the runner up for the REPS male personal trainer of the year for 2018, not the winner.


NEW YORK -- New York Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter underwent a CT scan on his surgically repaired left ankle Saturday after feeling discomfort there during Saturday's 13-9 loss to the Boston Red Sox.
Preliminary results of the test were negative, according to the Yankees. As an additional precaution, the results also will be sent to Charlotte, N.C.-based physician Dr. Robert Anderson, who originally performed surgery on Jeter on Oct. 20.
"We're just going to take a look under the hood and make sure that everything's OK," Yankees general manager Brian Cashman said. "If it is, we'll see him back here [on Sunday]."
Manager Joe Girardi pulled Jeter from the game in the bottom of the sixth inning for precautionary reasons, saying he didn't like the way the shortstop looked on the basepaths while running to first on a single.
Jeter appeared to hurt his ankle on a ground ball in the sixth. He went to his left to field a grounder by Jonny Gomes, planted with his left foot and threw wide of first baseman Lyle Overbay.
He was then pulled in the bottom half of the inning for pinch-runner Mark Reynolds after hitting an RBI single.
If Jeter's ankle injury causes him to miss games, it will be the latest in a long line of ailments this season for the 39-year-old shortstop.
Jeter only has played in 17 games this season due to various injuries. He spent most of the year rehabbing the left ankle he fractured during last October's playoffs.
After coming back for one game just before the All-Star break in early July, he went on the disabled list with a quad strain. He then returned to the DL because of a calf strain.
"It's not what you want," Girardi said of the possibility of losing Jeter again to injury. "It's what we've had to deal with a lot this year. Hopefully he's OK [Sunday] and he can play or somehow contribute."
The Yankees finish their four-game series against Boston on Sunday at 1 p.m. ET.
On the season, he is hitting .186 in 63 at-bats.
Cashman suggested that if the Yankees were not in a race for the wild card, Jeter would be able to rest more frequently to temper the soreness in his ankle.
"He's the king of toughness, so he's doing everything he can to get out there and play and not worry about stuff," the GM said.
In other injury news, an MRI on Saturday morning revealed that lefty reliever Boone Logan is suffering from inflammation in his throwing arm. Girardi said Logan will take three days off and then be reassessed.
Logan, 29, was injured on his second or third pitch to Mike Napoli in the seventh inning of Friday night's game. Napoli ended up hitting a game-tying grand slam off Logan later in the at-bat in Boston's win.
Ian Begley is a regular contributor to ESPNNewYork.com.


Vetsulin (porcine insulin zinc suspension) is used to reduce hyperglycemia and hyperglycemia-associated clinical signs in dogs and cats with diabetes mellitus. The initial recommended dosage for dogs is 0.5 IU insulin/kg body weight once daily, given by SQ injection. Dosage may be adjusted, and twice daily therapy initiated in dogs, if necessary. The initial recommended dosage for cats is 1 to 2 IU insulin, given by SQ injection twice daily at 12 hour intervals. Vetsulin must be administered with a U-40 syringe (sold separately) to ensure accurate dosing. Porcine insulin zinc suspension, 40 IU/ml.


When we decided to go to Japan we knew we had to see all of the wonderfully, tacky and damn right out there weird stuff that you can only find in Japan. Obviously that included going to see Tokyo's number 1 show, The Robot Restaurant. But, with costs of AUD$100 each, is the Robot Restaurant really worth visiting? Here's our review of what the Robot Restaurant in Tokyo is really like.
Firstly, it's not actually a restaurant which is utterly confusing. The Robot Restaurant is a show so you don't need to order the food (and I wouldn't anyway as it's like fast food they give you in a box).
The Robot Restaurant is a show performed to tourists in the area of Shinjinku and sort of looks like a fun fair ride from the outside. I had read from another blog that they wished they didn't pay for the dinner at Robot Restaurant as there's loads of places to eat nearby. They were right.
Why do you need to arrive an hour early at Robot Restaurant?
You have to arrive an hour early because they put all the tourists in a room (which is actually pretty amazing) to watch a dressed up daft punk looking band to perform songs and buy drinks from the bar. The room is actually spectacular but from what I could see, it's almost like a waiting room. When we were lead down to the show, the staircase on the way down was incredible and a big highlight.
What's the Robot Restaurant show like?
When you enter the room for the show, it's so small, you'll wonder how on earth they perform in the space with large props. It's mental!
The seats are all jammed together so you don't get any space at all, but this is Japan so would you expect any different? This means it's hard to actually leave your seat for the bathroom during the breaks of the show, which leads me onto my next point. The main thing I noticed is there are constant breaks in between the shows, like every 10 minutes. It wouldn't surprise me if they were there for the staff to get ready for their next performance but during that time the audience is flogged with loads of stuff to buy from lightbulb drinks to popcorn chicken, it honestly goes on and on. And as the one and a half hour show stops for breaks, what feels like 50 times, we became quite sick of the buying schemes. As soon as the show was over, we were rushed out of the building before the next group of tourists were brought in so you're in for a bit of a tourist trap. But I suppose, would you expect any different? It's also one of those shows where I think it would be so much better if they had a raucous, drunk audience. The atmosphere was quite flat and although the show was actually quite fun, it wasn't something I'll remember as a memorable moment in Japan to be honest. It also reminded me of Disney World which I went to when I was 10 years old, watching the parades yet instead of Disney characters it was totally random. Imagine a bunch of aliens singing and dancing to Michael Jackson or Bruno Mars? That's what you'll get at Robot Restaurant. There's no actual storyline, it's just all a bit random which makes it so wonderfully weird in an ironic sense. If there's one thing I did love about Robot Restaurant, it was the waiting room and the staircase down to the show. They were incredible and if the show was something similar, it would have been awesome. But the show was fun, you just have to take it with a pinch of salt. I'm glad we went, just to see what it was all about.
Have you been to Robot Restaurant? Let me know in the comments below.


Set to raise the bar for luxury living in a major regeneration zone, Brickfield Court will offer an selection of stylish 1 and 2 bedroom apartments - all expertly built and interior designed to Kelly Hoppen's high specifications.
Slough is a thriving business and commuter district on the fringes of London - just off the M4, 10 miles from Heathrow airport, in the Thames Valley area known as the 'Silicon Valley of Europe'.
The city recently benefited from an £450m infrastructure regeneration project and a further £1 billion has been invested in the rejuvenation of the town.
Brickfield Court is located half a mile from Slough train station – Crossrail station will be even closer and from 2019 will connect Slough directly to Central London stations in just 30 minutes, while travel time to Heathrow is expected to be just 6 minutes by 2021.
Raising the bar for luxury living in a major regeneration zone, Brickfield Court offers a selection of stylish 1–2 bedroom apartments - all expertly built and styled to the highest specifications by interior designer Kelly Hoppen MBE. Residents benefit from 24-hour concierge service, an excellent private resident's gym (treadmill, x-train, bikes, rower, weights, mats), secure allocated parking and bike storage.
With Slough property values estimated to rise by up to 48% by 2021, the investment offers significant capital growth potential, particularly for those investors who leverage capital by using a buy to let mortgage. Ready to occupy, buy-to-let investors can also enjoy an immediate income yield, conservatively forecast to start at between 4.40% and 4.93%.
Prices start at £235,000 with parking available at £15,000 per space.


Absolutely beautiful home in Bear Valley! Fantastic curb appeal, upgraded flooring, New Garage door & custom paint colors. gourmet kitchen with center island & new stainless-steel appliances, large family room with cozy fireplace, 5 spacious bedrooms plus bonus room office downstairs (total 6 bedrooms), Lovely Master suite with balcony & Views. around $100,000 cost for a remodel and upgrades for new front and backyard, and new 2 Carrier Air Conditioner unit.


At www.airconditionerservicenearme.com browse professional assistance on ac heater unit repair services, while you browse through tutorials for bad foam board insulation issues & expert report on two-stage cooling of forced hot air furnace. Quotes on replacing ductless air and heat units for your house, as you research house improvement consumer guide by using our btu calculating software and how to diagnose issues on problems related to ac running but not cooling. Refer to important articles & blogs about forced air cooling and heating systems by popular reputed specialists in your city. Consider hiring one of the top 10 companies in your neighborhood for your homes or commercial jobs. Compare and research air filters, pressure controls, reignitors, liquid line filter driers, foam insulation, tools & instruments. We are proud to work with the leading parts and equipment suppliers to secure discounted deals for our customers. Our distributors feature the largest collections of driers, indoor air quality products, spray foam insulation, vents, solenoid valves, power gable fans, hvac blowers & blower parts, indoor air quality, hard start kits. Find numerous deals and specials on hundreds of products and chose the one that fits right for you. Contact the suppliers if you have any questions or even if you want to get a quote on a specific job to buy fiberglass insulation, hvac fans, uv filters, pilot valves, attic insulation, refrigerant, valves, freon, grilles.
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text:
Q: Is it fine to use JSON.stringify for deep comparisons and cloning? After attempting several implementations for deep comparison and copying for JSON-serializable objects, I've noticed the fastest often are just:
function deep_clone(a){
   return JSON.parse(JSON.stringify(a));
};
function is_equal(a,b){
    return JSON.stringify(a) === JSON.stringify(b);
};

I feel like this is cheating, though. Like I'll find some problem that will annoy me on future. Is it fine to use those?

A: JavaScript does not guarantee the order of keys.
If they are entered in the same order, this approach would work most of the time, but it would not be reliable.
Also, it would return false for objects that were deeply equal, but whose keys were entered in a different order:
JSON.stringify({ a: 1, b: 2}) === "{"a":1,"b":2}"

JSON.stringify({ b: 2, a: 1}) === "{"b":2,"a":1}"

A: I realize it's an old question, but I just wanted to add a bit more to the answers, since someone might otherwise walk away from this page mistakenly thinking that using JSON.stringify for comparisons/cloning will work without issue so long as it isn't used to compare/clone objects whose members are unordered. (To be fair to the accepted answer, they shouldn't walk away thinking that; it says, "If [the members] are entered in the same order, this approach would work most of the time.")
Code probably illustrates the potential hiccups best:
JSON.stringify(NaN) === JSON.stringify(null)
// => true

JSON.stringify(Infinity) === JSON.stringify(null)
// => true

// or, to put it all together:
JSON.stringify({ val1: (1 / 0), val2: parseInt("hi there"), val3: NaN }) === JSON.stringify({ val1: NaN, val2: null, val3: null })
// => true

// and here's the same example with "cloning" rather than comparison:
JSON.parse(JSON.stringify({ val1: (1 / 0), val2: parseInt("hi there"), val3: NaN }))
// => Object {val1: null, val2: null, val3: null}

These are quirks that can cause trouble even when ordering isn't an issue (which, as others have said, it can be). It's probably not likely in most cases that these quirks will rear their ugly heads, but it's good to be aware of them, since they could result in some really hard to find bugs.

A: As long as the key-value pairs are always in the same order, yes, you can use stringify to compare using the deep equals operator (===).

A: I wrote this function to deep compare any object array or value:
Use it if you want :) I tested it with very huge sample of objects with randomized entry order in objects and arrays too.
function c(x, y) {
  if (!x && !y) return !0
  if (!x || !y) return !1
  if (typeof (x) !==
      typeof (y)) return !1
  if (x instanceof Array) {
    if (
      x.length != y.length) return !1
    const f = []
    for (let i = 0; i < x.length; i++) {
      if (!c(x[i], y[i])) f.push(i)
    }
    const g = [...f]
    for (const i of f) {
      let r = !1
      for (const j of g) {
        if (
          c(x[i], y[j])) {
          g.splice(g.indexOf(j), 1)
          r++
          break
        }
      }
      if (!r) { return !1 }
    }
    return !0
  } else if (x instanceof Object) {
    const e1 =
          Object.entries(x)
    try {
      return c(e1, r(Object.entries(y),
        e1))
    } catch (e) {
      return !1
    }
  } else {
    return x === y
  }

  function r(
    u, v) {
    const a = []
    if (u.length != v.length) return u
    for (
      let i = 0; i < v.length; i++) {
      a.push(m(u, v[i][0]))
    }
    return a
  }

  function m(a, k) {
    for (let i = 0; i < a.length; i++) {
      if (a[i][0] === k) return [a[i][0], a[i][1]]
    }
    throw 0
  }
}

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


Need details about an upcoming game?
The Appling County Recreation Department proudly offers a wide range of sports activities for youth of all ages! Our sports leagues include softball, baseball, soccer, basketball, football, football cheerleading, track, swimming,tennis, and golf. Visit our Registration page to see the registration dates for the upcoming sport!
The Appling County Recreation Department is a proud member of the Georgia Recreation and Parks Association (GRPA) and supports its mission to promote the recreation and park industries within the state of Georgia. We are committed to offering quality sport activities for our local youth in a safe and friendly environment and invite you and your children to join us!
For more information, contact us at 912-367-8190, office hours 8:00a.m. - 5:00 p.m.


We offer a variety of trails and experiences to take you off the beaten track. With an off-road instructor from Gleneagles at the wheel you can enjoy the stunning Perthshire countryside in a range of different activities.
Take the high road with an instructor at the wheel to access stunning highland scenery on private estate roads and tracks. Departing from the front door of the hotel, the safaris take guests for half day excursions to a remote, beautiful and exclusive hill farm, accessible only by private invitation from the landowner. Leaving public roads behind, the Land Rovers climb high into the hills to enable you to discover the wild beauty of the heather uplands and the magnificent vistas which are the quintessence of Scotland.
The instructor guiding you will point out Munros, lochs and lochans and historic landmarks, together with local wildlife. You will certainly see the native black-faced sheep, buzzards, rabbits and some of the varied songbirds, you may see grouse, black grouse, peregrine falcons, merlins, blue hares and red deer. If you are particularly fortunate you may even see a golden eagle, soaring majestically overhead. Your guide will also tell you about local lore and sporting practices, such as heather burning and the origins of tartan.
At a high point en-route, your instructor will stop to allow you to take in the view with a glass of champagne and, if you wish, a gourmet picnic, (additional charge), before you descend in the Land Rovers to the picturesque valleys, returning to the hotel by a different route. Binoculars and field guides are supplied and cameras are definitely recommended.
Discover Scotland bespoke tours have been put together exclusively for Gleneagles guests. They combine a varied selection of venues, hand-picked to provide you with a taste of the richness and variety of Scotland.
You will be driven in a Range Rover or Discovery, by an instructor from Off Road at Gleneagles. A combination of the instructor's expert vehicle handling and sound local knowledge enables them to link castles, distilleries and the best of Perthshire's off-the-beaten-track shopping, with scenic, cross-country routes, especially selected to show you the best of Perthshire's picturesque vistas.
Tours can be tailored to suit your special interests. If you are particularly interested in historic Scotland, we recommend that your journey includes a visit to Blair Castle, which houses one of the finest collections of Scottish furniture, paintings, china, arms and armory, dating from the sixteenth century. If you would like to visit some gardens, we will take you to Drummond Castle Gardens with their magnificent early Victorian parterre, with fountains, terracing and topiaries. If you would like to take the chance to stock-up on some of Scotland's finest products, we suggest a visit to House of Bruar, which offers fine Scottish goods, including cashmere, an excellent food hall, fine sporting goods and a range of Scottish gifts.
Junior drivers have a fantastic facility at Gleneagles – their own off-road course and mini Land Rovers. Kids aged from 4 to 9 years old can receive instruction from behind the wheel of Land Rover replicas while testing their driving skills on a purpose-built course designed to reflect the grown-ups' course.
The Land Rover replicas have been specially built for Gleneagles and are a quarter of the size of their parent original. The school is the first in the UK to offer junior off-road instruction.


GREENWICH — The pressure that comes with playing in an elimination matchup didn't seem to faze the Sacred Heart Greenwich volleyball team much during its FAA Tournament semifinal match against School of the Holy Child Wednesday.
The Tigers, who advanced to the tournament finals last season, showed their postseason knack for winning points at crucial moments in edging the Gryphons the first two sets.
Holding that two-set lead, the Tigers were determined not to make their day longer than it had to be.
Second-seeded Sacred Heart earned a return trip to the championship match, registering a 3-0 victory. With the 25-23, 25-22, 25-13 win, the Tigers advanced to Friday's FAA final, where they will visit top-seeded King School. The Vikings defeated the Tigers in last year's league title match.
Junior outside hitter Ellie McKenney recorded 10 kills, 10 assists and six service points, while Whelan tallied eight kills, 23 digs and three aces for the Tigers (14-3). Winners of nine straight matches, Sacred Heart gained some momentum by taking a back-and-forth opening set.
Sacred Heart jumped out to a 6-2 lead in the second game behind McKenney's ace and junior Lucy Graham-Fleishman's kill. Holy Child (12-7) remained close throughout the second game, but never took the lead. Graham-Fleishman's kill closed out the second set, giving the home team a 2-0 advantage.
Kablack had five kills two digs and one ace, Graham-Fleishman added seven kills and one ace and sophomore Natalia Pazos had four kills, 25 assists and 10 digs in the winning effort.
In the third set, kills by Kablack, Graham-Fleishman and Whelan helped Sacred Heart to seize a 5-0 lead. Later in the set, a kill from junior Laura Holland and three straight service points from junior Mae Briody stretched the Tigers' edge to 19-7. Whelan's perfectly placed kill sealed the set and the win.
Senior Katie Friedel had four kills, while sophomore Caylee Premoli registered 13 service points, three aces and seven assists for Holy Child. The visitors lost to Sacred Heart 3-0 during the regular season. The Tigers now shift their focus toward King. They dropped a 3-0 decision to the Vikings in the regular season.
"King is a great team, so our players have to bring their 'A' game on Friday," Wilson-Jordan added.


South Cumbria Rivers Trust are currently working up a proposal to remove Bowston weir, near Burneside in South Cumbria.
Discussions are still underway but in the meantime we encourage you to check the Bowston Question & Answer Document.
We have conducted a number of investigations into the removal proposal and a full design report can be found here.
A flood risk assessment has also been carried out which can be viewed here: flood risk assessment.
If you have any additional questions or concerns, please e-mail: admin@scrt.co.uk and we will provide a response as soon as we can.


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Is it a bumper end of year list you are after? You've come to the right place. Louise Bruton wraps up her best (and worst) bands, tracks, festivals, videos, gigs, movies and much more from the last year.
Shout out to the worst movie I saw this year, Slaughterhouse Rulez.
1. Attending the Love Island final in the Omniplex Cinema in Rathmines.
3. Bingeing on the first season of Queer Eye for the Straight Guy and sharing the loveliness, only to realise that I am too cynical for the increased loveliness of season two.
4. Watching and falling in love with The Bisexual and cursing creators Desiree Akhavan and Rowan Riley for being so talented.
5. Being pleasantly surprised by the glow up of season two of Glow. Far superior to the first.
6. Discovering Great News and rushing through the first two seasons before finding out that it was cancelled. I should have dragged it out.
7. The DRAMA of police officer Kat Chapman dying in Home and Away, as Ash summons an army of River Boys to avenge her death.
8. Discovering Fleabag and accidentally devouring the first season in one sitting. I have control issues.
9. Unsettling my hangovers even more by watching Saturday night's recording of Killing Eve on Sundays.
10. The incredible cast and the warped and dark humour in The End of the F***ing World.


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Co-op Directory
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1984 Personal Management
Suite 508, Davina House
137 Goswell Road, London
1984 Personal Management is one of the longest established co-operative agencies for actors, celebrating it's 30th anniversary in 2014. Founded and run by actors, we pride ourselves in taking on…
Business, Creative
21st Century Actors Management
264 Camberwell New Road, London
We are a co-operative actors agency with clients working across Stage, TV, Film and Commercials.
ACE Credit Union Services
Mariners House
Trident Court
East Moors Road, Cardiff
ACE Credit Union Services is a trade association for credit unions. We have 42 credit unions (who have a total of 51,000 members) affiliated to ACE and we cover the UK and Jersey.
ACO Galleries
Plas Power Road
Southsea, Wrexham
The ACO is a co-operative of Northern Artists, united in their determinations to produce high quality artwork. Artists looking after Artists to promote our members work, and give them direct and…
Community, Creative
Actors Alliance
Disney Place House
14 Marshalsea Road, London
Established in 1976 the Actors Alliance is a cooperative acting agency providing helpful accurate suggestions to the industry representing a select range of performers
Actors' Creative Team
1 Springvale Terrace, London
Actors' Creative Team is a co-operative acting agency, established in 2001. With a client base of dynamic and focused actors between the ages of 20 and 60, we are able to offer a wealth of experience…
Actors Exchange Management
Unit J302, Biscuit Factory
100 Clements Road, London
We are a Co-operative Agency – one of the best in the business. In commercial terms we are a small agency with an average of 25 clients on our books. Recent television work for clients includes…
Actors Network Agency
55 Lambeth Walk, London
Was founded in 1985. Over the years it has flourished and is now an established theatrical agency, well respected within the industry. It is the direct input of its clients which helps to give it…
Actorum
11 Mowll Street, London
Established in 1974, we are the world's original actors' co-operative. We operate on the principal of collective self-determination in the entertainment business. Our clients work in a range of…
Africanfuturist Arts Cooperative Society
9 Quay View Apartments, Arden Crescent,
Millwall, Isle of Dogs, London
Allendale Creative Artists CIC
Allendale Forge Studios
Market Place, Allendale
We are a co-operative group of volunteers, producers, artists and makers promoting small businesses and the beautiful North Pennines landscape through the Allendale Forge Studios Art and Craft Centre.…
Alpha Actors
8 Woodberry Down, London
Alpha was established 25 years ago by a group of actors who wanted greater insight into their industry and were keen to have greater autonomy over their careers.From those early days Alpha has grown…
Amber Personal Management
Colony, 5 Piccadilly Place, Manchester
We are an Actors Agency representing a select list of actors within Film, Television, Theatre, Radio and Voice-over. We specialise in developing each clients individual portfolio. Currently, three…
We Are Open Co-op
3 South Terrace, Morpeth
We are our members. We Are Open Cooperative members are pioneers and leaders in global technology, advocacy and community spaces. We are experts in creation and harnessing input from people. As a…
Creative, Digital
Arena Personal Management
Room 207, Regus Woburn Place
16 Upper Woburn Place, London
Arena is an actors co-operative agency established in 1985. We represent London based professional actors and secure work for our clients in theatre, film, television and radio. We do not represent…
Art & Soul Traders
43a Kingston Road, Portsmouth
The Art & Soul Traders is a cooperative of experienced and dedicated artists, promoters and facilitators with backgrounds in murals, community art, film making, event organisation, music,…
Artchists of Brixton
Arch 18
Valentia Place, London
Artchists of Brixton provide affordable shared resource for the creative community as well as mixed use, messy spaces for members
Business, Community, Creative
Ledbury Heritage Centre
Church Lane, Ledbury
Artistree opened a permanent gallery at the beginning of August 2016 on the first floor of the Ledbury Heritage Centre, Church Lane. Artistree is a thriving artistic co-operative of contemporary…
Association of British Credit Unions (ABCUL)
Holyoake House
Hanover Street, Manchester
ABCUL is the principal association representing the interests of Credit Unions in the United Kingdom. Credit Unions are financial co-operatives owned and controlled by their members. They offer…
Banbury Artists Cooperative
Church Lane Gallery
Church Lane, Banbury
Banbury Artists Cooperative works to help guide, support and promote the work of local artists and making art more accessible for those living or visiting Banbury.
Bankley Studios
Bankley House
Bankley Street, Levenshulme
The studio currently has over 30 artists in residence working accross a range of disciplines including painting, textiles, photography, installation, sculpture and ceramics. The studios are located…
Bearpark Artists Co-operative
Bearpark Community Centre
Institute Terrace
Bearpark, Durham
Bearpark Artists' Co-operative (est 1993) is an independent group of studio-based professional painters. Much of our work is concerned with the area in which we live. Works in oil, acrylic and…
Big Lamp Artists Cooperative (BLAC)
46 Elswick Road, Newcastle
Local art studio in Elswick's Big Lamp area, houses 6 artists and a gallery space.
Bradford Co-operative Association
Bread + Roses
14 North Parade, Bradford
Bradford Co-operative Association comprises of Chapel Street Studio (a co-op agency of freelancers, creative entrepreneurs and small businesses) & Bread+Roses (a co-op cafe and workspace).
Bridges: The Actors' Agency
Out of the Blue Drill Hall
Studio S12
30 - 36 Dalmeny Street, Edinburgh
At Bridges we offer a unique experience for both our clients and casting professionals. Our co-operative business model, whereby our agency is managed and run day-to-day by the very actors it is…
Bristol Food Producers Network
The Community Farm
Denny Lane
Chew Magna, Bristol
The Bristol Food Producers are a diverse network of local, independent growers, farmers, food processors and distributors working together to supply the city of Bristol. The members collaborate and…
Community, Farming
Brown Rock Market Garden
187 Clevedon Road, Clevedon
Lovingly Curated Vegetables!! Small but mighty, we grow all our vegetables by hand. The garden is situated on the Tickenham ridge on the outskirts of Bristol, where we lovingly produce a wide array of…
Caldbeck Crafters Co-operative
Priest's Mill
Caldbeck, Wigton
Retail consortium co-operative for craft products. Calbeck Crafters Co-op are a group of local crafts people and artists supplying a wide range of original work. We are based at Priests Mill in…
Cardigan and Pembrokeshire Fish Producers
Glanwern
Llanddeiniol, Llanrhystud
Fishing co-operative
Central Line Personal Management Co-operative
129A Middleton Boulevard, Nottingham
The Central Line - Actors agency established in 1983. Representing professional actors for Theatre, Film, TV, Voice Over, Radio & Corporate work.
Chancery Co-operative Management (CCM)
Argyll House
All Saints Passage, London
CCM (Chancery Co-Operative Management) was formed in 1993 and originally based in Romford in Essex, before moving to Panther House, Grays Inn Road in 1994, and now our new location in Wandsworth. Our…
Chapter Thirteen
The Pearce Institute
840-860 Govan Road, Glasgow
Chapter Thirteen is a space for the development and production of curatorial projects located in Govan. It was established in 2016 by five curators and operates as a co-operative, providing a platform…
Chelvey Designer Makers Co-operative
Brickyard Wood Barns
Brockely Lane
Chevley, Backwell, Bristol
Chelvey Designer Makers Co-operative was established in 2009 to develop workshop sites for Chelvey designer makers; provide workspace facilities and joint purchasing services; training and mentoring…
Cinderhill Garden Co-operative
16 Stonemere Avenue, Todmorden
Establised in 2011, Cinderhill Garden Co-operative is a community growing and garden co-op in Todmorden, in the Upper Calder Valley in Calderdale, West Yorkshire, England.
Circuit Personal Management
Piccadilly Business Centre
Aldow Enterprise Park, Manchester
Circuit is an Actors co-operative established in 1988. Circuit Personal Management is a member of the CPMA. Their client list is primarily Midlands and North-West based, working throughout the UK in…
City Actors Management
31 Stirling Road, London
London's premier co-operative agency was established in 1982 and continues to thrive. Our offices are at Oval House, not far from London's West End, and many members also have bases in the…
City Projects (London)
46 Brooksby's Walk
Homerton, London
City Projects is a visual art commissioning agency and production company. It is run by a committee and is directed on a freelance basis by Kate Parker, an independent producer specialising in…
Coed Talylan Land Trust
Red Pig Farm
Bethlehem, Llangadog
Farming, Housing
Common Ground Co-operative
Berry Farm
Clarkes Lane
Ilketshall St Andrew, Beccles
An ecological land co-op that collectively manage the land at Berry Farm, Ilketshall St Andrew
Community Supported Agriculture (CSA) Network UK
c/o Canalside Community Food Limited
Southam Road
Radford Semele, Lemington Spa
Community supported agriculture (CSA) is a partnership between farmers and consumers in which the responsibilities, risks and rewards of farming are shared. The Community Supported Agriculture (CSA)…
Co-operative News, established in 1871, is the oldest co-operative newspaper in the world - and also, arguably, the oldest democratically controlled paper.
Co-operative Personal Management Association
1 Mellor Road, Leicester
Founded in 2002, the CPMA works to further and promote the interests of its members, who are acting agencies located across the UK. Backed by Equity, we seek to raise the profile of co-ops with both…
Craft Potters Association of Great Britain
27 Fouberts's Place, London
The Association was formed as the Craftsmen Potters Association (CPA) in 1958 as a co-operative to sell the work of its members and to increase public awareness of contemporary studio pottery. In 1955…
Craftco
40a The High Street, Southwold
CraftCo is a shop and gallery, run as a cooperative, by and for makers. It sells handmade contemporary crafts made mainly by crafts people who live and work in East Anglia
Creative, Retail
2 Balkerne House
Balkerne Passage, Colchester
Design for remarkable people working to make a positive difference. Creative Coop is a design studio specialising in Branding, Design and Web Development. Established in 2003, we have worked with a…
Crescent Management
Southbank House
Black Prince Road, London
Crescent Management is an actors' co-operative agency and a member of the Co-operative Personal Management Association (CPMA). All our members subscribe fully to the concept and ethos of co-operative…
Cuckoo Farm Studios Print Workshop
Boxted Rd
Mile End, Colchester
Cuckoo Farm Studios was established in 1992 when a small group of artists moved in and began to turn this derelict farm into a suitable establishment for practicing professional artists to work from.…
Culture Matters Co-operative
30 Glenbrooke Terrace
Low Fell, Gateshead
Culture Matters is for everyone interested in the arts, in culture generally and in politics. We are a collective of writers and activists who have come together to provide webspace and editorial and…

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


Lawrence Dennis received a grant for 234 acres (1, p. 135).
1730 – Lawrence Dennis sold the property to Edward Rippon (1, p. 135).
? – Joseph Seabrook Jr. became owner of Edward Rippon's property (2, p. 172).
1790 – Joseph Seabrook Jr. died and son Issac Seabrook became owner of the plantation (2, p. 172).
1798 – Issac Seabrook died leaving Pine Barren to his brother-in-law, Thomas Whaley III, who was the widower of his sister Mary Ann Seabrook Whaley (2, p. 172).
1805 – Thomas Whaley III passed away. Joseph Whaley was just 17 when he inherited Pine Barren Plantation from his father (1, p. 135) (2, p. 172).
1862 – The United States Government confiscated many South Carolina plantations during the Civil War including Pine Barren (3, p. 73).
1865 – Colonel Joseph Whaley petitioned the court for the return of Pine Barren Plantation which was 600 acres at the time. In May 1866, the court issued a certificate of ownership to Whaley (3, p. 73).
1872 – Joseph Whaley passed away. Most of the property was sold by the Whaley heirs but the house did remain in the family (2, p. 172) (3, p. 140).
1930s – The Whaley house was lost in a suspicious fire. A farmhouse was rebuilt at the site and retained the Pine Barren name (3, p. 140).
Late 1990s – Beth Grimball Mayer, a descendant of Colonel Joseph Whaley, acquired the house, restored and modernized it (3, p. 140).


You can also download the track by visiting www.DinosaurJr.com and www.Jagjaguwar.com.
The reunited line up of J Mascis, Lou Barlow, and Murph have also added new June tour dates in Los Angeles, New York, and San Diego. The band is currently wrapping up a string of dates in smaller venues across the country, previewing new material from Farm as well as classic tracks from their legendary catalogue.
Stay tuned for more on Dinosaur Jr, including the release of a new skate and BMX themed music video for "Over It" filmed this past week in Augusta, Georgia.


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Could you live with a Jeep Wrangler?
There's no question that the Jeep Wrangler is an accomplished off-roader, but how does it cope with the rigours of everyday family life? We find out...
by: Hugo Griffiths
Towards the end of last year, I was lucky enough to take a Jeep Wrangler around the Icelandic highlands for a few days. During this time I drove across almost every kind of terrain imaginable, crossing lava fields, navigating blizzard-strewn mountain tops, fording rivers so deep water lapped the car's windscreen, and even driving to the top of a volcano.
During this time the Wrangler didn't miss a beat. It coped with everything I threw at it, the only hiccough being a puncture – and hey, Jeep doesn't make tyres, after all.
Going Global: around the world in a Jeep Wrangler
As impressive as these feats were, though, this was the Wrangler very much in its element. Few cars, after all, are so capable when the going gets tough. But we're somewhat short of volcanoes and lava fields in the UK, while few who opt for an SUV over a hatchback will venture off-road that often; so how, we wondered, does the Wrangler stack up as a family car? Does its ability to cross frozen rivers come at the expense of being an easy car to navigate the South Circular?
To answer this question, I decided to put the Wrangler to the test with my family, fulfilling duties on supermarket trips, days out at the park and anything else we cared to throw at it. Our Wrangler wouldn't be the super-tough Rubicon version I toured Iceland in; instead, it would be the more civilised Overland – although if we did hear the call of the wild, it would still reach parts of the country other vehicles couldn't.
Not that the inside of the Wrangler feels wild. My Iceland Jeep was a previous-generation JK version, and this is the current JL. And while the exterior looks are evolutionary, the cabin represents a vast improvement over its predecessor's. It's still pleasingly rugged inside, make no mistake, with an upright dashboard and windscreen, chunky grab handles and the odd (deliberately) exposed screwhead adding to an atmosphere of indomitability. But quality is a massive step up over the JK's, while all models now get LED lights, keyless go, an 8.4-inch touchscreen complete with sat-nav, as well as the latest smartphone connectivity, plus a punchy nine-speaker Alpine stereo, complete with subwoofer.
And, as the poshest Wrangler in the range, our Overland also gets 18-inch alloy wheels, heated leather seats, extra safety kit and improved trim on the outside (including a hard cover for the boot-mounted spare wheel). It feels pretty plush, truth be told. Take the steering wheel; this is chunky, yet clad in soft leather, and heated with one of the more powerful elements I've come across. The same goes for the seats; I love a good bum warmer, to the extent I usually set them to max – but the Wrangler's heated seats are so intense I actually turned them down after a few minutes. This is the sort of detail you'd be grateful for during a harsh winter.
Another definite Wrangler plus point is that my kids absolutely love it. Theo, seven, and William, four, are immediately taken with its rugged looks, marvelling at how tall it is, and the fact they have to use the side steps to climb into the cabin. They also like the commanding view out from their seats, while the abundance of interior storage, including a vast centre cubby and the front cupholders with their grippy rubber ridges, mean stowing the kids' water bottles and snack boxes is a breeze.
I'm happy with the height, too, partly because it means strapping the boys in is a doddle (no stooping required), and partly because the vantage point of the driver's seat is virtually unparalleled. The last car I sat in that was this tall was the Mercedes G-Class, and that's around twice the price. Add in the huge windows, all-round parking sensors and a reversing camera, and here is a car that gives you a better view of your surroundings than most.
My family's time with the Wrangler coincided with the half-term school holidays, so a number of trips were planned. First up was a visit to the park, which is too far to walk to, and a pain to get to using public transport. Theo was keen to take his bike and William his scooter; in our family hatchback these requests are sometimes resisted because loading a bike, in particular, requires much contortion of wheels, forks and pedals, and not a little cursing.
But popping Theo's bike in the Wrangler's almost perfectly regular load space is simply a matter of lifting it up and dropping it in. There's still plenty of room for William's scooter, plus the snacks and spare clothes any trip to the park inevitably entails. And, once the boys are done gallivanting around the park, the boot doubles as a convenient place for them to sit while they change out of their wet, muddy gear.
Next day, a trip to Brooklands Museum is keenly requested, and who am I to deny such a demand? All three Griffiths boys are petrolheads, after all. With my geography not much further developed than the boys', making use of Google Maps via the infotainment system's Apple CarPlay function is a useful must.
Something that's more optional is our choice of music for the drive, but the boys are keen on some tunes, so CarPlay is called on again, this time using the Spotify music streaming app. Being able to control the songs and volume with rocker switches hidden on the back of the steering wheel is a neat touch, even if my lads soon regret me introducing them to my vast collection of nineties Europop one-hit wonders.
Driving out through London, the tall-riding Wrangler is great to sit in. It's a properly commanding car and, while we're careful not to feel too cocky, there is a certain satisfaction to be found in sitting higher than almost any other car on the road. Out of town and onto the dual carriageway, it's easy to relax into life behind the wheel of a Wrangler. The 197bhp 2.1-litre diesel engine pulls well, with 0-62mph taking 9.6 seconds. It's refined at a cruise, too.
With the kitchen cupboards looking rather bare, our next trip out is a fairly mundane one. My wife, Rachel, joins us for this expedition to the supermarket (not just to prevent us buying too many cakes), and she is also taken with the impressive view out, as well as the chunkiness of the cabin.
Something we all remark on during the journey is that family conversation seems far easier in the Wrangler than it is in our car, with each of our four voices more easily heard. This might be something to do with the upright seating, or the general acoustics of the cabin, but either way, it's something unexpected that we all appreciate.
We also appreciate the Wrangler's ride. London's streets aren't known for their smoothness, and the Wrangler's high-profile tyres and wide gait mean there's far less negotiating around potholes and speed bumps than we normally face.
A trip to Farthing Downs – a picturesque park on the outskirts of London – follows our supermarket shop, and the Wrangler looks and feels properly in its element here. In fact, I reckon the Jeep's styling is one of its bigger plus points. They say you only look back at cars after you've parked up if you like them, and this is something I found myself doing rather a lot. You only need to glance at some of these shots to see how distinctive, how timeless the Wrangler looks. Is it a car for shy, retiring types? Possibly not. But this is a cool-looking 4x4 with more presence than most.
I do have a couple of regrets from my time with the Wrangler. The first is that it didn't stop raining for the entire time we had the car, so we couldn't take it for a proper drive with the wonderfully named Freedom Panels off. These form the roof above the front seats, and can be easily removed for open-air motoring. But never underestimate the persuasive power of children; on our last day with the car during a break in the weather, I took the panels off so Theo could at least get a taste of what an open Wrangler is like.
Another aspect of the Wrangler that was unexplored is its ability to climb (almost) every mountain and ford every stream; with someone whose mother lives in a flood-prone area of the country, knowing that I have a car that could come to her rescue were her house to flood up to hip height (as has happened previously) is deeply reassuring. The fact it is capable of such a feat, as well as being able to fill in for family duties with comfort and character, speaks of an impressive car, and one we were sorry to say goodbye to.
History of the Wrangler
The story of the Jeep Wrangler is one of the longest and most enduring of any car, ever. We take a look at the key moments.
1941 Willys MB
US Army off-road vehicle, and the world's first mass-produced four-wheel-drive car. Described by President Eisenhower as "one of three decisive weapons the US had during World War II".
1944 Willys CJ
Short for 'Civilian Jeep' and developed from the military 4x4, the CJ model remained in production in numerous guises for more than 40 years, cementing the car's iconic reputation.
1987 Jeep Wrangler YJ
With square headlights, awider track, increased comfort and improved handling, the Jeep Wrangler YJ succeeded the Willys CJ, and was the first car to wear the Wrangler name.
1997 Wrangler TJ
Reintroducing the round headlights that are now intrinsic to the Wrangler, together with coil instead of leaf springs, the TJ offered much improved levels of refinement for Jeep buyers.
Third-generation Wrangler brought with it luxuries such as electric windows and satellite navigation, together with electronically detachable anti-roll bars for the rough stuff.
2018: Wrangler JL
A Wrangler for the modern age. All the off-road ability of earlier models, but with the technological and luxury trappings buyers today demand. The Wrangler JL is unquestionably a Jeep, with looks that hark back to the original 1941 MB.
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