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Future of Democratic Party
Column: A Strategy for Confronting Trump, Restoring Democratic Norms
Submitted by Simon Rosenberg on 1/31/17
Countering Trump
Preserving Democratic Norms
Renewing Our Democracy
In his new column for US News, "Drawing the Line with Trump," Simon argues that Democrats need to abandon traditional responses to the Trump Presidency, and set new rules of engagement. Trump's early, repeated trampling of democratic norms must be confronted head on now. Friday's decision to strip legal residents of the US of their liberties without debate or consultation is the act of an autocrat or dictator, not an American President. No further evidence of his intentions are needed now.
In his piece Simon lays out four conditions for continued Democratic cooperation:
1) Stop the Executive Orders
2) Debate Your Proposals In Congress
3) Divest or Disclose
4) Honor Decorum
Trump has historically low levels of public support; voters already have grave concerns about his secret holdings and the potential for corruption; and regular people are already taking unprecedented steps to protest his early Presidency. Democrats have a great deal of running room to take a dramatic and principled stand not against Trump but in favor of the rule of law and our democratic system itself.
Simon Rosenberg's blog
Backgrounder: On the Future of the Democratic Party
Submitted by Chris Murphy on 1/23/17
National Politcs
Some of our recent work on this vital topic:
Memo: In A New Global Age, Democrats Have Been Far Better for the US Economy, Deficits, and Incomes. In a new memo NDN finds that over the past generation of American politics Democrats have been far better for the economy, deficits and incomes.
A Strategy for Confronting Trump, Restoring Democratic Norms, Simon Rosenberg, US News & World Report, 1/31/17. To counter Trump Democrats will have to be patriots not partisans. In his new US News column Simon offers a strategy for how to draw lines and challenge a man acting far more like a dictator than an American President.
Chin Up, Democrats, Simon Rosenberg, US News & World Report, 1/20/17. In his recent column, Simon argues that Democrats should have pride in their historic accomplishments and optimism about the future of their politics.
Rediscovering the Democrats' North Star, Simon Rosenberg, US News & World Report, 12/9/16. In his recent column, Simon offers some thoughts on the path forward.
A New Generation of Democrats Will Have to Rise – NDN's Post Election Memo, Simon Rosenberg, NDN.org, 11/9/16. It is time for a more purposeful handoff from Boomer Democrats to the next generation who will have to lead the party in the years ahead.
Prior to the 2016 Election
Memo: 2016 Through A Millennial Lens – Some Initial Thoughts, Simon Rosenberg, NDN.org, 11/4/16. One of the more dramatic and potentially disruptive demographic developments in recent American politics has been the explosion of Millennials into the American electorate.
Report: In A New Global Age, Democrats Have Been Far Better for the US Economy, Deficits and Incomes, Simon Rosenberg and Chris Murphy, NDN.org, 9/13/16. Our report finds that since Communism fell, and the world changed, Democrats have been far better stewards of the economy than Republicans.
Report: Presidential Primary Debates, Simon Rosenberg and Chris Murphy, NDN.org, 5/25/16. This memo looks at the audiences the Presidential Primary debates received in 2016 and 2008.
A Wake Up Call For Democrats - Simon's 2014 Post-Election Memo, Simon Rosenberg, NDN.org, 11/7/14. Republicans have made substantial gains in recent years, and are a much stronger national party. Democrats have a lot of work to do to compete and win against a resurgent GOP.
Chris Murphy's blog
Column: "Chin up, Democrats"
US News and World Report has published Simon's tenth column, "Chin up, Democrats," in his weekly Op-Ed series that will every Thursday or Friday.
Be sure to also read his recent column, "An Independent Audit of Trump's Companies is Now Necessary" in which Simon argues that Trump's plan to keep all of his holdings establishes new far weaker norms, encourages public corruption, creates many new terror targets, and exposes the US to exploitation by foreign governments.
An Excerpt from "Chin Up, Democrats"
On Tuesday I tweeted out a link to a new CNN poll showing that 65 percent of Americans believe Obama's presidency was a success. Among the responses was one from a conservative friend who cited the now familiar litany of statistics showing how much power Republicans had gained during his eight years in office. He ended his tweet with "Thanks Obama."
This exchange captures the Democratic Party's current dilemma. For while the Republicans have more power, the Democrats have been by other measures a far more constructive and successful party. For the second straight administration, a young, talented Democratic outsider was elected to clean up messes left by Republicans who struggled to govern. Both times these young telegenic leaders, despite extraordinary Republican opposition and some missteps along the way, left the country far better than they found it. Both left office with some of the highest approval ratings and people saying their presidencies were a success of the entire post-WWII era of American politics. This is no small achievement.
And for all the GOP stats about decline, we have our own set that paint a more nuanced picture – more votes in six of past seven presidential elections, a feat only matched once in all of American history; a 14-point advantage (53/39) among under-45 voters who will be the dominant force in American political life for the next generation or two; a far more popular and admired party; gains in the Senate and House in 2016, not losses; a huge array of popular and well-regarded national figures.
As Trump ascends into the presidency, Democrats would be wise to give themselves far more credit for a job well done than we hear in the current discourse. Looking back over the past 80 years, there is an argument to be made that the modern Democratic Party has done more to improve the lives of people here and abroad than any organized political force in human history. In addition to leading a decades-long struggle to defeat totalitarianism in various forms, we imagined and built a global order that has ushered in an age of almost unimaginable human progress, peace and self-determination. Billions of people today across the world today have the education and opportunity to contribute to the lives of their countries; billions are living in some form of democracy where they can cast a ballot for their leaders; no great war has engulfed the planet; billions have access to life-saving medical care and modern technologies that are making the act of living itself far more fulfilling, and long.
To continue reading, please refer to the US News link. You can Simon's previous US News columns here.
Column: Rediscovering the Democrats' North Star
Submitted by Simon Rosenberg on 12/9/16
US News Columns
US News and World Report has published Simon's seventh column, "Rediscovering the Democrats' North Star," in his weekly Op-Ed series that will every Thursday or Friday through the end of the year.
Be sure to also read his recent column, "Trouble Ahead - 4 Scandals That Could Alter the Trump Presidency," in which Simon looks at four looming scandals that could alter the trajectory of the Trump Presidency – unprecedented levels of public corruption, collusion with Russia to alter the outcome of the election, the FBI's late intervention and Melania's immigration troubles.
An Excerpt from "Rediscovering the Democrats' North Star"
To successfully counter what will be a very aggressive Republican legislative agenda next year, Democrats will be have to be unusually focused and disciplined. At a strategic level we will not just have to make clear what we are against, but also what we are for, what we will do different if once again given the chance to govern. With all that in mind, I offer up an early sketch of a focused agenda that can help animate the Democrats' opposition in the coming years:
Prosperity and Security. While there are many issues we must tackle together in the coming years, there are two that matter more to the nation and the American people themselves than the others – getting ahead, and feeling safe from threats.
The good news for Democrats is that our track record on the economy and keeping us safe is strong, and gives us a lot to work with going forward. On the economy, Obama will leave office with the nation at near full employment, GDP at a robust 3.2 percent, incomes rising since 2013, 25 million more with health insurance, his "all of the above" energy strategy having made us more energy independent while accelerating the growth of renewables, the deficit is half of what it was and the stock market at all-time highs.
For Democrats, this is second consecutive stint in power that we have left the economy far better than we found it. We simply have to become more purposeful about telling this story – since the end of the Cold War there has been more jobs, rising incomes and lower deficits with the Democrats, and job loss, declining incomes and higher deficits with the Republicans. We enter the coming debates about the budget and the economy as the only party which has successfully produced sustained prosperity for America over the past generation of our political life, and we cannot let up in this fight.
On "security," as it has been discussed in this year's campaign, Democrats have simply ceded too much ground to the Republicans of late. By most measures Americans are far safer today. Violent crime, killings of police, Americans killed by terrorists, military causalities are all far lower than during the George W. Bush administration, and in some cases, at all-time lows. The net flow of unauthorized immigrants into the U.S. has dropped from 400,000 a year net under Bush to zero under Obama – a remarkable achievement. Immigrants commit crimes at rates lower than native born Americans, and the economic achievements of the two largest immigrant groups – Asians and Hispanics – are impressive by any measure. Despite historically high levels of immigration, the American "melting pot" has once again done its thing, leaving us a better, stronger and more diverse nation than before. These accomplishments are meaningful, and well worth defending.
On the Middle East and terrorism, Barack Obama will leave office not the first nor the last president disappointed about what was achieved. But on the rise of the Islamic State group, we have to recognize that it grew from the internal political failings of two sovereign nations, Syria and Iraq, caught in the middle of a broader regional struggle between Sunni Arabs and its proxies and Iranian supported Shia forces. Creative thinking is needed here from all sides, thinking that recognizes that there is no "bombing them into the stone age" military solution to the region's troubles. The path forward involves expanding the increasingly successful military and counter-terrorism already in place, vigorously pursuing a regional reconciliation between Sunni and Shia, vigilant efforts to counter the Islamic State group's online reach, and Marshall Plan like efforts to modernize and strengthen those nations in the region wanting to put this violent age behind them.
A New Generation Of Democrats Will Have To Rise
As background, NDN produced a post-election memo in 2014, "A Wake Up Call For Democrats" which covers some of the ground in the memo below. The original version of this memo was published on the Wednesday after the election, and has been updated. You can also find our thoughts in a series of post-election articles in Time, TNR, the Washington Post and others sources, and in this new US News op-ed, "Rediscovering the Democrats' North Star."
Clinton wins more votes, Dems gain in Senate and House – Yes, a bit spinny given the outcome, but true. Trump has won the Presidency, getting fewer votes than Clinton and winning his big 4 states - FL, MI, PA, WI - by less than 1.5%. What is remarkable is that Democrats have now won more votes in 6 of past 7 Presidential elections, one of the best runs for a political party in US history and yet have very little to show for it. In the exits last night Democrats had meaningful advantages in Party ID and favorability, and Barack Obama had a 53/45 approval rating. A plurality of voters even said they were better off than they were four years ago.
The GOP, a party that has won more votes in a national election only once since 1988, amazingly has more power today in Washington than any time since 1928. That our system could produce this outcome is one of the things that makes America exceptional.
The exits confirm that last night was not a repudiation of the Democratic Party's agenda, or a significant affirmation of the direction Trump wants to take the country:
-48% said Obamacare was just right or didn't go far enough, 47% said too far
-70% said illegal immigrants should stay, 25% said deport
-41% approve of building the wall, 54% say no
-48% said criminal justice system treats blacks unfairly, 43% fairly
-31% say they are better off today, 27% worse off, 49% same
Even on the issue of global trade, 42% said trade takes away jobs, 38% said creates jobs.
So what this means in practical terms is that it is hard for Trump and the Republicans to claim a clear mandate. They have only won one more votes in a national election once since 1988, and will have to work hard in the coming months to build majority support for their agenda.
Dems Need A Big Discussion About Turnout, Our Coalition – Democrats need to have a robust debate about why we've had such a hard time replicating Obama's success with the majority coalition he built in 2010, 2014 and again in 2016. No doubt that the Trump campaign impressively outperformed expectations in most national polls. But an early and quick read on the data suggests that once again the Democrats did not meet their targets with their own voters – and in this race resources were not an issue. More on this issue in future memos.
Younger Americans Are Much More Democratic – Using the national exit polls, voters under 45 went for Clinton 53% to 39%, and those 45 and over went for Trump 52% to 44%. 56% of the electorate was 45 and over, 44% under 45. Maximizing the under 45 vote – people who came of age after Reagan's Presidency – remains one of the highest demographic priorities for Democrats. Not sure what it means yet, but the 4 states that cost Clinton the election last night – FL, MI, PA, WI – have very low %s of Millennials compared to other states.
For more on Millennials and the youth vote, see our new report on Millennials, this excellent post-election report from Tufts/Tisch/CIRCLE, and Democracy Corp's election night survey showing the Millennial share of the electorate grew from 19% in 2012 to a remarkable 29% in 2016.
Huge Mistakes By Clinton Campaign - It is hard to escape the conclusion that the Clinton campaign both badly misread the election in the final months, and made terrible decisions about the allocation of its campaign resources and candidate time. This new article by Sam Stein in the Huffington Post captures the failures in Michigan and Wisconsin. But it goes deeper than just those two states. Discussions have to be had about huge overinvestments in IA, NC and OH, and whether AZ should have been a prime target general election target from June on. As of 11/20, Clinton's margin in AZ is only 3.6%, better than the Democratic performance in IA, NC and OH (see our new memo on AZ, and the strong showing for Dems in CA and TX too). Politico just published a new report on how the Clinton campaign blew Michigan - and it is tough reading. And then there is the question of Trump's far more aggressive general election campaign schedule, something that no doubt made a difference in a very close race.
Given the financial advantages and unified party behind the campaign, the team running Clintonworld will have to explain to the rest of us about what appears to be fatal misjudgements in the general election.
Thanks Comey! – According to the exits, of the 26% of people who made up their minds in the last month, Trump won them 49%-39% (yes during the period of the debates, the Access Hollywood video). Of the 73% who made up their minds before the last month, Clinton won 51%-46%. Very hard to not conclude from this data that the Comey intervention in the election was consequential.
Not sure all of us have yet processed the unprecedented intervention of a foreign government and the FBI in this election. With Rs in charge of Congress and the White House, will be hard to have this conversation next year but it is a conversation that needs having.
Political Reform – Given the obvious concerns about a "rigged" system that no longer works for everyday people, why Hillary Clinton never developed a serious conversation around reforming our politics remains one of the great mysteries of the 2016 election. See my piece from December, 2012 about why political reform had to become central to the politics of the center-left in the years ahead.
A New Generation of Democrats Will Have to Lead Now – The Obama Presidency and the 24 years of leadership provided by Bill and Hillary Clinton will now yield to a new era for the Democratic Party. Surveying the landscape – Schumer, Kaine, Booker, Sanders, Warren, Becerra, Michael Bennett, Kamala Harris, Gavin Newsom, Joe Kennedy, the Castros, Tulsi Gabbard, etc – Democrats have a very promising set of leaders capable of carrying the Party forward.
Democrats will also have to become far more purposeful about preparing for the generational handoff from Boomer generation politicians to younger ones. The Democratic Party is a young, diverse and growing party. Its future success will depend on advancing leaders who can connect with and excite these voters.
Big questions now about what the Obamas do, and the role they play in what comes next.
Folks Should Be Careful About Calling This A Change Election – While there is clear evidence "change" was something people sought, the country is neither as angry or disquieted as some have been suggesting. Let's go through some data here. Incomes have been going up for four years. 2015 saw the largest income gains for American workers in the recorded economic history of the United States. The unemployment rate is under 5%. Violent crime, the killings of Americans by terrorists and the killing of police are all at rates far lower than during the Bush Administration. The uninsured rate is at historic lows. Heath inflation, the biggest driver of the deficit, has been lower this decade than in a generation. Energy prices are low, America has become a net energy exporter, and the growth of renewables is exploding. The net flow of unauthorized immigrants into the US has gone from 400,000 a year under Bush to zero today, while trade with Mexico has more than doubled.
And public opinion confirms this. In a recent Gallup poll 62% of Americans said things are getting better. 53% of Americans report that things are good in a recent CNN poll. President Obama's approval rating is in the mid to high 50s, the highest mark of his second term and higher than President Reagan at the end of his Presidency. A recent Bloomberg poll found only 28% of Americans saying that since Obama's election they are worse off, with 21% saying things are the same and 49% better. While the exits last night found fewer people saying better off, the number saying worse off was about the same – 27%. And in the exits, 37% said the next generation will be better off, 34% said worse. This simply isn't rebellion level numbers folks.
The exits also asked a direct question – which candidate quality mattered most? 39% said "can bring change," and they went 83% to 14% for Trump. This is a plurality, not a majority.
This is not to say that we don't have challenges, or that that there isn't disquiet in the American electorate. But it is not a majority sentiment of the public at large, and was not even close to being a majority sentiment of those who voted last night. But it is a majority sentiment of Republican voters as this party break out of recent CNN data suggests:
Source: CNN/ORC poll data from September 1-4, 2016. According to this CNN/ORC poll, 53 percent of Americans believe economic conditions in the US are good. The question asked in the survey was: "How would you rate the economic conditions in the country today -- as very good, somewhat good, somewhat poor, or very poor?" See our recent report, "America Is Better Off And Safer Today" for citations for the data in this section.
Memo: 2016 Through A Millennial Lens – Some Initial Thoughts
One of the more dramatic and potentially disruptive demographic developments in recent American politics has been the explosion of Millennials into the American electorate. In terms of voting age population, Millennials now equal the other large American generation, the Boomers. 70m Millennials will be voting age in 2016, 20m more than 2012 and 35m more than 2008.
We've already seen the impact a big demographic change can bring to American politics. In 2004, George W. Bush won the 6 states in what we call the "Latin Belt" – AZ, CO, FL, NM, NV and TX. Today, due to rising numbers of Hispanic voters in these states, higher levels of turnout and an embrace of the Democrats, Clinton is likely to win 5 of these 6 states. Coming a few years later than a big transformation of formerly Red California, several polls of late have Texas within margin of error. Democratic gains in these heavily Hispanic states have changed the electoral map.
The same will be true for Millennials. But as they've been voting about 2 to 1 for Democrats it would make sense for us to begin to see disruption inside the Democratic Party first – something we did see in the Presidential primary this year with Bernie Sanders. What impact is this big Millennial surge having on the general election? We won't know until after November 8th, but we offer some initial thoughts below. For the purposes of this analysis, we broke down each state by share of Millennial population, and ranked them. You can find that breakdown with an explanation of the methodology we used at the end of this document.
Top States by Millennial %
Bottom States by Millennial %
Alaska, Texas, Utah – three traditionally Republican states that appear to be leaning far more towards the Democrats than many anticipated are in the top five states in terms of Millennial share of their population. Alaska is 3rd, Utah 4th, Texas 5th.
A look at the recent CBS track of Texas which found the race 46% Trump 43% Clinton shows what an impact their Millennial surge is having on the partisan orientation of the state. For comparison we offer the national breakouts from this week's Economist/YouGov poll, which had the national race 46% Clinton 43% Trump. For the record, this poll has the national 18-29 year old Trump a little lower than others. But you get the idea.
We put the Economist demographic breakdowns into a graph, below. It is important to note here that the demographic break that is emerging isn't just with Millennials. Under 45s are now leaning dramatically towards the Democrats (essentially people who came of age after the Cold War ended). The obvious conclusion from this data is that if these rough partisan affiliations hold as more younger people enter the electorate and vote they will make the country and many states far more blue. The first states to be effected will be those with the largest Millennial share – states like the three above.
The Big Battlegrounds – Another interesting trend is recent erosion of Florida and Ohio for Clinton. Both are in the bottom tier of states by Millennial population – Ohio clocking in at 42nd, and Florida 47th. Something Democrats will have to watch going forward is many of the important battlegrounds have below average Millennial percentages. MI is 40th, WI 41st, OH 42nd, PA 43rd, FL 47th, NH 49th, ME 51st (we include DC here as a state). If older people are trending a bit more Republican, these states provide fewer Millennials to make up that lost ground; but even these states are feeling the effect of this flood of new young voters.
The Millennials Are Coming – Since 2008, the country has gained 35m more Millennials of voting age. Assuming a 50% turnout rate and 2 to 1 support for Dems, this is about 6m net new votes for Democrats. As Millennials age and their turnout rates increase, the number of Millennial voters will increase as will their political influence. It is hard to see how today how this isn't anything but an existential threat to the current Republican Party – their nominee is losing under 30s by more than 20 points even in Texas today, and between 25 and 40 points depending on the poll for the nation as a whole.
We will report back in the days after the election to see how this all plays out.
Note: We have ranked the 50 states and the District of Columbia in descending order by 2016 Millennial percentage. All the raw data is from the 2015 census. The "2016 Percentage" column approximates the # of Millennials 18 and older as a percentage of the total population of each state. It uses the 20-34 totals and takes 60% of the 15-19, given that people aged 17, 18 and 19 could vote in this election. This is an approximation of course, and we acknowledge the actual percentages will be a bit smaller given that not every 205 17 year old will be old enough to vote this year, and the populations of most states will have increased.
The "2018 Millennial column" looks at the percentage of Millennials per state assuming all 2015 15-19 year olds would be old enough to vote. Like in the first formula, this is construction is an approximation. Things will no doubt change in all these state between 2015 and 2018, but these are still apples to apples comparisons.
We would like to acknowledge that we leaned heavily on data from the Pew Hispanic Center, the Pew Research Center, and the US Census Bureau for this analysis.
Report: In A New Global Age, Democrats Have Been Far Better for the US Economy, Deficits and Incomes
Making Globalization Work for All Americans
We Are Better Off
Overview – This report looks at the economic performance of the two American political parties when in the White House since the end of the Cold War. You can find the full report below, as an attachment.
We use 1989 as a starting point for comparison because when it comes to the American and global economies, the collapse of Communism and the non-aligned movement ushered in a new, truly global economic era, one very different from the one that came before. It is thus fair to see how the two parties have adapted to the enormous changes this new era has offered, and whether their policies have helped America prosper or struggle as we and the world changed.
As you will see from the following analysis, the contrast between the performance of the Democrats and Republicans in this new economic era is stark: 2 GOP Presidencies brought recessions, job loss, higher annual deficits, and struggle for workers; the 2 Democratic Presidencies brought recovery and growth, job and income gains, and lower annual deficits.
Based on these findings it is fair to assert that over the past generation the Democratic Party has been far more effective at crafting effective responses to a new economic era than the Republican Party. This case is bolstered, of course, when recalling the GOP's spirited predictions of economic calamity when opposing both the 1993 Clinton economic plan and budget and the 2009/2010 Obama stimulus and "job-killing" Affordable Care Act.
The Republicans have gotten it wrong now in four consecutive Presidencies.
While it will not be the subject of this short report, our findings raise questions about whether the characterizations of the US economy as one not producing income and wage gains either over 40 years or over the past 15 years are accurate. It would appear that a more accurate description of the US economy in recent years is that with smart policies, Americans can prosper even in a more challenging and competitive global age.
Key Findings From The Report:
Job Growth: Over the Clinton and Obama Presidencies, more than 30m new net jobs were created. In contrast, during the two Bush Presidencies, approximately 3.5m jobs were created.
GDP Growth: Both Democratic Presidents saw the GDP rate rise during their Presidencies. The first President Bush saw GDP hold steady during his tenure. The second President Bush saw GDP decline.
Unemployment Rate: Both Democratic presidents saw more than a 3% point decrease in the unemployment rate during their terms. The Bushes saw increases in the unemployment rate by more than 2% and 3% points respectively.
Income: Both Bush Presidencies saw Americans experience decline in their median income, while during the Presidencies of Presidents Obama and Clinton Americans experienced gains. The newly reported 2015 increase in median income of almost $3,000 is the largest ever recorded since statistics began being kept in 1967.
Deficits: Both Democratic presidents saw dramatic improvements in the annual deficit during their tenures, with Clinton turning large structural deficits into annual surpluses and Obama cutting the annual deficit he inherited by one half. Both Bushes saw increases in the annual deficit on their watches, with the second President Bush seeing a more than ten-fold increase in the annual deficit during his presidency, one of the greatest explosions of debt in US history.
Public Opinion About the US Economy: Survey after survey finds Americans believing that things are far better, and improving. According to one new report, the President's job approval on the economy stands at its highest mark since 2009. A new report from Gallup finds fully 80% of Americans are satisfied with their current standard of living.
Healthcare: The uninsured rate has plummeted, while the growth of health care costs – a significant driver of the US budget deficit – has slowed. Slower cost growth and healthier Americans are good for the American economy, businesses and the nation as a whole.
Energy: President Obama's "all of the above" approach has a rousing success for the nation, increasing domestic production, lowering energy costs for American businesses, lessening our dependence on foreign sources of energy while giving the US a leg up on the new energy technologies of the future.
Again, you can find the full report, below, complete with lots of charts and graphs. Enjoy.
Report: Presidential Primary Debate Audiences
Debate debate
Future of the Democratic Party
This memo looks at the audiences the Presidential Primary debates received in 2016 and 2008. The Republicans have completed their full 12 debate schedule for the 2015-2016 cycle. We now have the final numbers for the debate audiences for the Democrats and Republicans. The top line analysis can be found below, and tables of the audiences of each debate which received ratings in both 2016 and 2008 can be found on pages 4 and 5 of the full memo, attached (at bottom). More information about the debate over the 2016 debates can be found in our backgrounder (Updated on Wednesday 5/25/16).
2016, Republicans – 12 debates, 186.3m total viewers, 15.53m viewers per debate.
2016, Democrats – 9 debates, 72.03m total viewers, 8m viewers per debate.
2008, Republicans – 14 debates, 42.87m total viewers, 3.07m viewers per debate.
2008, Democrats – 16 debates, 75.22m total viewers, 4.7m viewers per debate (Dems had another 10 debates which were not rated, so total viewership was higher than 75.22m).
GOP Dramatically Outperforms Dems in 2016 and Rs in 2008 – In 2008, the 16 Democratic debates outperformed the 14 GOP debates by more than 53% per debate (4.7m per debate vs 3.07m). In 2016, the 12 GOP debates have outperformed the 9 Democratic debates by a much larger margin, over 94% per debate (15.53m vs 8m). It is a dramatic reversal.
The 12 GOP debates have produced more than 5 times the audience per debate than their 14 debates produced in 2008, and almost 5 times the total audience. The 9 DNC debates produced almost twice the audience per debate that the 2008 debates produced, but, in aggregate, produced a total audience 3 million less than the 2008 debates produced.
Democratic Debate Schedule Struggles to Match 2008 – Despite very large audiences for the debates this cycle, the smaller number of Democratic debates (9 compared to 12 GOP in 2016 and 26 in 2008) means that the total audience of the Democratic debates in 2016 was 3 million less than the 2008 Democratic total, and 114m less than the 2016 GOP total.
DNC's Original Debate Schedule Audience – The DNC's original six debate schedule produced an audience of 48.4m. After requests from many, including the Clinton and Sanders campaigns, the DNC added four debates on February 3rd. The DNC also smartly brought in CNN to augment its PBS and Univision debates. These improvements in the schedule brought an additional 24m viewers, 8m from the CNN re-broadcasts and 16m from the three additional debates conducted so far. Augmenting the original schedule increased the overall Democratic debate audience by 50%.
The Townhalls – While the audiences for the CNN town halls were not significant, the formats were. Each of these programs gave viewers a window into the candidate the more rigid debate formats have not. They have been an important innovation this cycle by the DNC, and in coming years should be given more prominence. Our guess is if adequately promoted with more time, viewership for these town halls could be far more significant.
Audience Per Debate
Total Audience
"A Wake Up Call For Democrats" - Simon's 2014 Post-Election Memo
The Republicans Are a Far Stronger National Party Today - Next year, the Republicans will have their largest House majority since 1929, 53-54 Senators, control of 32 governorships and 66 of the 99 state legislative chambers. 22 states now have Republicans in control of the Governor's mansion and in both houses of the legislature. Their very successful redistricting efforts of a few years ago also give them advantages in the ways lines are drawn for Federal and state legislative races that will not be easily reversed until after the next redistricting. This is a formidable achievement by the Republicans in recent years.
It is remarkable that our political system could have given the Republicans this degree of power and control during the set of elections which gave the Democrats their largest back to back national Presidential majorities – 53% and 51% - since 1940 and 1944. It is perhaps this success that allowed national Democrats to become complacent or unconcerned about GOP advances in other areas. But the scale of Republican success in recent years outside the Presidency has altered the balance between the two parties now, and may even leave the GOP a stronger national party than the Democrats over the next decade.
By power I mean all that comes with politics – strength of candidates, bench, staff and consultant talent, fundraising capacity, use of technology and of course control over government and policy. Part of what we are witnessing is the coming to power of the children of Reagan – forty something Gen Xers who came of age during the Reagan era. This age cohort is the most Republican of any age cohort in the US, meaning there are lots of them and they have a great deal of generational support for their politics. This generation of politicians is young, gaining in experience, and will be a force to be reckoned with in national and state politics for a generation to come. To regain power Democrats will have to take on and defeat this increasingly successful and energetic generation of politicians over the next decade, perhaps starting with the Presidential race in 2016 (Christie, Cruz, Paul, Rubio, Ryan, Walker).
So while it is true Democrats have developed a post-Southern Strategy majority coalition, a coalition that is perhaps the best and most durable of the Democratic coalitions since the 1940s, it remains to be seen if it has the political infrastructure and bench to take advantage of this historic opening in the coming years.
Running Away from the President/No National Narrative – Many commentators have already weighed in on this but I think Democrats have to understand that in the modern media age mid-term elections are also national elections, particularly when you have the Presidency. The lack of a forceful narrative and mechanism to deliver it from the White House and national party in 2010 and 2014 allowed the national Republicans to make gains that were greater than the political landscape of those elections warranted. As an old War Room guy, I believe that every attack needs to be countered or it sticks, and that if you are not on offense in politics you are losing. And in neither mid-term did the national party mount a major effort to defend the good works of the President and the Democratic Party.
In 2014 the failure to define the election on Democratic terms was particularly impactful. It not only didn't give Democrats a reason to engage more enthusiastically in the election, it left the message playing field open for the GOP to fill the closing months of the elections with issues like the Central American migrant crisis, Ebola and ISIS that ended up causing true harm to the Democratic brand and successfully fired up GOP voters – particularly older white voters who turned out in very large numbers.
Looking ahead to 2016, I think it would be wise for the entire party, but particularly its Presidential aspirants to learn the lesson of Gore 2000 and the 2014 mid-terms: you cannot run away from the President of your party. Doing so leaves candidates with all of the downside of that President and none of the upside. And while many are disappointed with how the President has performed in recent years, the net effect of his policies and of Democratic governance have been well worth trumpeting: strong GDP growth, falling unemployment rates and deficits, soaring stock markets; tens of millions now insured and the health care cost curve being bent; a hugely successful national energy strategy that has lowered fossil fuel prices, expanded domestic production while advancing renewable energy and taking needed steps toward combating climate change; an immigration strategy which has both humanely lifted the threat of deportation from millions of striving undocumented immigrants while ensuring the border is far safer, etc. In his final two years the President can burnish this record through policies focused on the middle class and broad economic growth, successful management of tough foreign policy challenges, completion of Atlantic and Pacific trade deals and needed additional reforms to the immigration system. But to ensure that the public understands all that has been done, the President must become far more energetic in selling his accomplishments to the American people, and bringing other Democrats along with him.
By owning the economic and policy successes of the Obama Era, it also allows Democrats to draw a very stark contrast between the economic policies of the last two Democratic and Republican Presidents. The last two Republican Presidents brought recessions and exploding deficits. The last two Democratic Presidents brought growth and declining deficits. This contrast will be useful as we enter the Presidential season and a whole host of Republican candidates who already sound if they are running for George W. Bush's third term.
GOP Does Not Have A Lot of Ideological Running Room In The Next Congress – It is going to be interesting to see how GOP leaders approach their agenda next year. Given the success of the Democrats on the economy, deficits, health care, energy and climate policy and border security, where exactly does the GOP go that is different from where we already are? Cutting taxes or increasing defense spending as some Republicans have suggested would increase the deficit. Attempts to cut domestic spending beyond what has already been cut have already failed in the Republican led House last year. Repealing the ACA would strip tens of millions of people of their health insurance and increase the deficit. Cut subsidies for renewable energy? Really?
So while we should expect investigations and fights over critical social issues, it is not surprising that the GOP's agenda so far has been modest. Corporate tax reform becomes possible if it is revenue neutral or generates more revenue. Boots on the ground in Iraq? Don't think so. Opposition to an Iranian nuclear deal? Perhaps. Finding common ground on a Middle East strategy in the next two years might be challenging, but it is not clear that the GOP really has an alternative approach at this point.
This leaves me an area where I think we could see significant bi-partisan cooperation – shoring up and modernizing the liberal international order. As we've written before, in a time of great global change America must do more to ensure our values and the system which has produced so much prosperity and avoided great wars prevails. One could imagine the White House and GOP Congress working to pass the nearly completed, geo-politically vital Atlantic and Pacific trade deals; bolstering NATO and the EU in combating the very real Russian threat; assembling a global coalition to end the Ebola epidemic in West Africa and leave behind a better public health care system in the region; along with our partner Mexico, develop a long term strategy to bring greater citizen security and prosperity to Mexico and Central America; and leading a global effort to keep the Internet open and free.
While this kind of broad, strategic partnership is possible, the way the Republicans closed this election makes me concerned about the appetite for global engagement we may see in the new GOP majority. Many of the GOP's ads run in the last few months of the campaign were deeply xenophobic – Ebola, ISIS, border/scary immigrants – and all sorts of combinations of them together. How the GOP pivots from putting up walls to tearing them down will be one of the more interesting issues to watch over the next few years.
The GOP Senate Majority Is Likely To Be Unstable, and Perhaps Short – Running the Senate GOP Conference these next two years will be no easy feat. Majority Leader Mitch McConnell will face challenges from a bigger pool of Tea Partyish hardliners in his conference; struggles with aligning with the even more conservative House; the challenge of having up to 4 members of the conference run for President; and perhaps most importantly, the difficult math of passing anything through the Senate.
Let's look at getting to 60. Assuming the GOP ends up with 53 or 54 Senators next year, they will need to get 6 or 7 Democrats and hold all of their own to pass legislation. Of the 34 Senators up for re-election next year, 24 are GOP held seats, just 10 are Democratic, and only 2 Democrats are likely to face tough races (even these – CO, NV – fare far better for Democrats in a Presidential year). For the Republicans 7 of these 34 seats come in states Obama won twice and are likely to go Dem again in 2016 – FL, IA, IL, NH, OH, PA and WI. Of these 7, 4 – FL, IL, PA and WI – were won with less than 52% of the vote in a high water mark GOP midterm election. Confirming what a tough map the GOP will have in 2016, Republicans will also be defending three states likely to be very competitive next time – AZ, GA, NC. The Senators from these states are simply going to have a hard time consistently aligning with the more conservative part of the conference as they will be facing much more Democratic leaning electorates in their states next cycle.
There really isn't an analogous group for the Republicans to target on the Democratic side. The 2016 potentially vulnerable Dems, Reid and Bennett, are in the leadership and will not be inclined to break with their party. There are only 5 Senators in redder states who might from time to time vote with the Rs – Donnelley, Heidkamp, McCaskill, Manchin, and Tester. So even if the GOP has 54 Senators next year, it is hard to see how McConnell routinely or even occasionally gets to 60. At 53 Senators, it gets harder still.
Pulling against the GOP "gang of 7" and other non-conservative Senate GOPers will not only be a more conservative Senate, but a more conservative House with less need to accommodate Democrats. Legislation coming out the House is likely to be more conservative than what comes from the Senate, making it harder for McConnell to get to 60 to reconcile bills with the House. Certainly one would expect President Obama to be far more aggressive in issuing veto threats early in these legislative fights to put even more pressure in the Senate for Dem heavy Rs and more conservative Dems to oppose whatever comes out of the Republican House Majority.
The Senate map is so favorable to Democrats in 2016 that it will put the Rs on the defensive politically from day one, something that may encourage McConnell's team to be even more cautious of the hard line House than usual. Taken together, it is a bit hard to see how the Republicans can make their possible new found control of Congress anything other than messy. The issue next year will not be what President Obama does – his agenda is well established at this point – but what can this new and potentially unstable Congressional majority do.
Our System Needs Reform – In just these past four elections the US political system will have given one Party its biggest back to back majorities at the Presidential level in 70 years, while also stripping it of both Houses of Congress. From a political science/design standpoint, it is frankly hard to produce election results like this in a political/electoral system even if one tried.
And it gets worse. In 2012 Democrats won more one than 1 million more votes in the House than the GOP but didn't win the chamber. In 2014, according to the final major national media poll, registered voters favored the Democrats 46-42, but it was a wave for the Republicans. Only 37% of eligible voters participated in 2014, and less than 10% of all voters were able to participate in a close Federal contests with all that it entails – ads, voter contact, political debate, voting. Results like these should raise legitimate questions about whether our government still has the "consent of the governed" as just too few people are determining who has control in Washington.
There is so much wrong with the system now – unregulated money, difficulty of voting, an anachronistic Electoral College, an already reactionary small state basis made worse by high concentrations of recent immigrants in a small number of states – for the center-left to not make political reform one of its highest priorities in the years ahead.
Reinvigorate the Democratic Party – President Obama and his team should leave his fellow Democrats a reinvigorated DNC with a new mission. He should establish a "2024 Project," one focused on doing what is required for Democrats to roll back recent GOP gains and come out of the next redistricting as the dominant political party in America with majority control in the Senate, House and state houses and legislatures across the country. At the core of this project must be strategies to expand the new majority coalition built in recent years into terrain critical for winning more control in Congress and in the states.
Among the more operational things the DNC should take primary lead on now is recruiting and training a new generation of candidates and operatives needed to beat a new generation of Republicans, expanding and turning out the new majority coalition, and advancing efforts to make it easier for people to vote in every state and locality in the country. A $50 to $100m fund should be put aside for a national paid media effort in off-year elections too.
Too many of these important responsibilities have been left to others parts of the center-left ecosystem. It is time for the most important piece of this ecosystem – the Democratic Party itself – to be challenged to fulfill its rightful and vital role as the enterprise charting the future of all Democrats over the next decade.
We will be issuing a separate memo on the Hispanic vote soon.
NDN's Corey Cantor contributed to this memo. Please send feedback and corrections directly to me at srosenberg@ndn.org. You can also follow me on twitter at @SimonWDC.
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Joe Watson is a Senior Advisor at Laurel Strategies and a nationally recognized author, media analyst, public speaker and business advisor. He is currently the CEO of Without Excuses, an organization that helps companies unleash the power of diversity to build their businesses. Joe served as Director of Personnel for Virginia Governor Mark Warner's Transition Team with primary responsibility for the construction of Governor Warner's Cabinet and senior staff. Prior to this work, he spent significant time with the Eastman Kodak Company, the Gartner Group and Robert Half International.


Rest is a key component in cosmetic surgery success. After undergoing a surgical procedure, patients will take time off from work to recuperate. Healing takes time, but proper healing prevent complications. This can be crucial with major surgeries, such as body contouring and sculpting after major weight loss.
The team at our Pittsburgh practice would like to go over some healing times of popular plastic surgery procedures. After considering time off the job, we'll then focus on what patients experience as they return to work.
How Much Time Will I Need Off from Work?
This number can vary from surgery to surgery and from patient to patient. Below is a general guideline for time off based on the procedure performed.
During the consultation process, you will receive a more detailed account of your recovery time as well as a custom timeline for the first days and weeks of healing.
The above numbers are common for people who work office jobs, routine service jobs, and other kinds of occupations that do not involve major physical labor or exertion. If you work in construction or demolition, are an athlete or physical trainer, or if your job duty requires you to be active and engage in heavy lifting, you will require more time off from work. This provides your body ample time to heal before you get back to your normal and strenuous routine at work.
When you return to your job, it's best to go easy for the first day or so. Note what activities may make you feel uncomfortable or cause pain. Try to work around these activities if possible, and to not strain yourself the first few days back.
In those early days back to work, you may find that you cannot perform certain job duties. This might mean job duties that involve heavy lifting or reaching for certain objects and so forth. If this is the case, do not hesitate to ask co-workers for assistance. This is just a temporary arrangement to ensure you can heal fully and free from complications.
During follow-up visits with your cosmetic surgeon, you will find out when you can resume your job duties and normal daily activities. Once you get the go-ahead from your surgeon, it's back to business as usual. Just remember to take things slow, and that patience is often a key to achieving wellness.
For more information about returning to work after a plastic surgery procedure and what you can expect when it comes to recovery, be sure to contact an experienced cosmetic plastic surgeon today. Our team is here to help you achieve wellness and renewed confidence.


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The Pay TV conundrum
30 Dec, 2000 - 03:45 PM IST | By indiantelevision.com Team
When hefty cable and satellite penetration numbers were reported about the Indian cable and satellite market as little as five years ago, there was a mad scramble to enter what was then considered a potential goldmine. But wannabe broadcasters discovered that they were actually digging for fools' gold. There was lots of hype, little substance.
Five years, on the hype has once again starting gathering pace. The cable and satellite television industry has been consolidating. International television channels are once again making a beeline for it, existing channels are digitising and encrypting, while analysts have turned euphoric about its potential. Existing numbers however still don't offer substantial support.
In terms of critical mass, India's cable industry is second only to China in the Asia-Pacific. Indiantelevision.com estimates that India has around 28 million cable homes. And the numbers are rising by the day as more homes buy new TVs or a second one.
However, encryption is only up to the cable TV headend. Cable ops descramble the digitised signals and pass them on in a wholesale manner to all their subscribers. This is thanks to the last mile problem and the absence of a return path in more than 70 per cent of Indian cable TV networks. Additionally, addressable boxes have yet to make their way into subscriber homes.
Some stray efforts have been made to bring cable TV networks up to scratch. Some systems have gone up to 750 MHz bandwidth. But mostly cable TV MSOs have shouted from the rooftops that they are upgrading their networks to a fibre optic backbone. The shouting has been just that: shouting with little action.
In 1999, subscription revenue from encrypted channels was estimated between Rs 1,500 million- Rs 2,000 million ($23 million-$46 million), shared by a host of channels including Star Movies, Star Plus, ESPN, Star Sports, Star World, Discovery, Cartoon Network, HBO, Hallmark, Kermit, National Geographic, Animal Planet, and Zee Cinema.
As against this, the average per home cable TV subscription charge is on the upper side at Rs 100, giving a total of about Rs 2,000 million (for 20 million paying homes) a month, totting up to about Rs 2,400 million per annum for the entire industry. "Three years ago pay TV was a bad and untouchable word," says ESPN-Star Sports managing director Manu Sawhney, "Then there was a grudging acceptance, today it is a reality ...everyone accepts it as a concept."
He, however, says there is a major problem plaguing the industry in that all the players have done little to expand the subscription channel pie. "We have all tried to retain our shares rather than increase the size of the pie. We have not spoken in one voice." In recent times however Star TV has started an ad campaign exhorting cable operators and consumers on the need for subscription television. "We are building the background for pay TV. In the next stage we will start advertising a maximum retail price like most other consumer industries do," says Star TV executive vice-president Arun Mohan.
The Star TV exercise will help, but it seems more like a rearguard action to help protect the hike in basic subscription levies that the network levied on cable operators when it priced its channel packages at between Rs 17.50 and Rs 22 recently. Star TV is likely to
have a bouquet of some 16 channels and has recently inked agreements with production house UTV to provide content for its health and education channel.
Ranged against it is the leader in the Indian market Zee Telefilms which has just started its digital package rollout and has priced its bouquet at a cut throat price of Rs 11. It is undercutting Star TV on the sticker price of the digital set top box too by pricing it at Rs 2,000 as against the Rs 5,000 or so levied by Star TV.
The strategy has led to a major duel in the market with some cable operators hurt by Star TV's aggressiveness in the past even dropping some Star channels. "It's a very strong play by Zee TV," says an observer. "And in the short term it is going to hurt Star." Zee is keen on cobbling together an 18 channel bouquet in the medium term.
The third player in the digital pay TV sweepstakes is Sony Entertainment Television which is cobbling together its channel package. AXN, Set Max, CNBC India (it has just got TV 18 board clearance to take a 20 per cent stake in the channel) , and of course SET. It is believed to be in the running to get in Disney into India (as is Star). Talks are on with a gaggle of other channels including Discovery, Animal Planet, The History Channel.
The fourth player which is showing signs of aggression is B4U which is cobbling together a bouquet of channels consisting of B4U, MCM, Fashion TV, and B4U Movies. Distribution will be outsourced to the Satellite Management Group, which is a distribution company set up specifically for that purpose.
DD's channels which the government is likely to mandate carriage goes to make up the fifth bouquet. The final bouquet is likely to be the channels which chose to be not associated with any of the other bouquets and could include channels such as BBC World, CNN, Cartoon Network, HBO (these three channels are being distributed by Turner International India), Deutschewelle TV, TV5, Arirang TV, Hallmark, Kermit, Prabhat, Sahara TV, among several others. The fact that there are independent channels has led to the increasing importance of distribution companies such as Modi Entertainment Network (the pioneers), CAT Vision, the Satellite Management Group. Each of these firms will have a group of independent channels which it will bundle together for a package. "There's place for just three -four digital bouquets in the Indian market" says Sony Entertainment COO Rajesh Pant. "We intend to be at the forefront."
Sawhney says the move towards pay TV will not be easy because of the disparity in the infrastructure nationally from region to region. "You have to have a different way of managing pay TV in the rural market, which consists of around 8.4 million homes," he points out. "The market is too price sensitive there. So while you can totally encrypt and charge a high price for urban areas how will you cope with disgruntlement for the remainder of the populace in semi-urban and rural areas."
IndusInd Entertainment COO Ashok Mansukhani says the government should find a way to regulate pay channels through the consumer set top box regime. "It's a crisis situation for the MSOs," he says. "We are today giving away more than Rs 60 of the Rs 100 we collect from subscribers for various pay TV services."
Pant believes mandating or regulation will prove detrimental to the cable TV industry. "Cable TV has grown in the absence of regulation. Let India follow the Taiwan model and leave it to market forces," he says. He sees a scenario where pay TV revenues will end up being equal to advertising revenues. "This has to happen as the ad market is not growing rapidly enough," he says. "However," says Sawhney "there are no easy solutions to get us there. The pay TV industry like water in a glass will take shape as it has to."
Pay TVenglish entertainmentMusic ChannelsDoordarchanfactualdocumentaryAnimal PlanetNational Geography

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaCommonCrawl


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Mosaics allow visually rich environments to be created in a variety of spaces. Penta, made from 98% recycled glass paste, is a product of choice for areas where elegance is the main focus of a design. For a bathroom at home or for the lobby of a hotel, this mosaic will leave no one indifferent.


I am a signing agent with 7 years experience and over 7,000 loans signed. I am NNA Certified, and hold Elite Certification with 123Notary. I am nearly always available, and can assist with last minute closings.
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Pune: With the day temperature in the city going as high as 34.5 degrees Celsius in February, doctors from the city said that drinking a lot of water and coconut water are the best ways to beat the heat.
Speaking to Sakal Times, Dr Somnath Salgar from BJ Medical College and Sassoon General Hospital said that those who go out in the sun should also have more of seasonal fruits as they are more water based. "Prevention is always better than cure and so some simple steps can help beat the heat. Protection from sunlight is also helpful by using a cap or scarf or sunlight glasses. Also, cotton clothes help in maintaining the body temperature. However, one must not hesitate to visit a physician if things go out of hand as in severe cases heat strokes can happen with the increasing heat," said Salgar.
While talking about drinking cold water, Dr Dinesh Lalwani said that cold water should not be consumed directly after being exposed to sunlight.
"After coming from direct sunlight, the body heat is very high. In such cases, it is always advisable to not consume cold water or even normal water directly. Firstly, let the body heat normalise and only then consume water. Do not have cold water directly. In case you feel dehydrated, drink ORS and refer to a physician," said Lalwani.
Warning against other drinks, Dr Ankur Deshpande, an Ayurvedic practitioner from the city, said that milkshakes and mastani are tempting, but they are not really healthy.
"As per Ayurveda, a combination of milk and any fruit is not recommended. They have opposite qualities so the combination of two different substances just for tastes buds is not at all healthy. So stay away from milkshakes, fruit salads or milk and fruit combination. Also, for those who have indoor work like in IT sector, should not consume too much water," advised Dr Ankur.
How to stay cool during summer?
*Do not consume water directly after coming from the outdoors. Let the body cool before consumption of water.
*Hydrate yourself with coconut water and if needed, use ORS as well.
*If there is a lot of dehydration, consult a physician.


MINSK, 5 January (BelTA) – The Christmas International Amateur Ice Hockey Tournament shows that Belarus lives by this sport, Swiss forward Cornel Prinz said in an interview with the Minsk CTV channel on 4 January, BelTA has learned.
The Christmas tournament in Minsk and the IIHF Ice Hockey World Championship showed that Belarus lives by hockey. This sport is loved here. My friends went to Belarus for the IIHF World Championship. They returned home with a lot of emotions. That was a real treat. I believe this was also a good advertisement for your country, and Belarus did an excellent job, said Cornel Prinz.
Germany hockey player Stefan Shauer noted that the Belarusians are a true hockey nation. "I love your country and love the fact that you are a true hockey nation. We also have something to strive for," he added.
Team Russia member Alexei Yashin said that it is always a pleasure for him to visit Minsk. "I am always happy to play a couple of games with the guys, to catch up. I would like to play with everyone. I really like the atmosphere during this tournament. Therefore I am always happy to play here," said the hockey player.
Teams from eight countries are participating in the 11th Christmas Amateur Ice Hockey Tournament for the Prize of the President of Belarus, which will be running in Minsk from 4 to 7 January 2015. The venues are the Minsk Palace of Sports and Chizhovka Arena.


Stained glass panels give your home a beautiful and elegant touch. You can incorporate these colorful elements into any area of your home. The living room, kitchen, dining room, bedroom or bathroom can benefit from the addition of these sparkling touches.
If you want to incorporate these works of art into the kitchen decor, consider putting stained glass inserts into your cabinet doors. A light inside the cabinet will really make this addition pop. Stained glass window panels are another option for the kitchen or, for that matter, any room in the house. Hang a panel in front of an existing window and enjoy the exquisite light display when the sun shines through, or just hang it on the wall and appreciate it as a work of art unto itself. If you're looking for smaller or less permanent touches for your home, consider the ever popular fireplace screen. These screens are beautiful in the colder months when the flames of a fire make the glass sparkle. For an even more discreet touch why not enjoy a stained glass sun catcher. A sun catcher is a piece of artwork that is both beautiful and portable. Imagine the endless lighting options available to the the home owner. You can find a variety of lovely lamps and chandeliers made from stained glass.
As you can see the possibilities are numerous. This lovely decorative element comes in colors, sizes and styles to fit any room in the house, and if you don't like any of the ready made pieces you find on the market you can always have a piece created to your exact specifications. Don't overlook this traditional and beautiful way to personalize your home.


The Nike Basketball family always brings it for All-Star Weekend. Every main figure of the current family will be represented as Kobe Bryant will have his ASG swan song, LeBron James will play in his 12th consecutive mid-season classic, Kevin Durant looks back to form after foot problems sidelined him for most of the 2014-15 season and up and comers like Anthony Davis & Paul George waiting in the wings for their true breakout moments.
James, Bryant, Durant, Davis & George will all be representing their respective conferences during All-Star festivities in Toronto next weekend. But they'll be doing it in style with player exclusive All-Star Game kicks and gear, all with minor details alluding to the rich history of the host city: Toronto.
You can see the entire Nike Royalty Collection for All-Star Weekend in the gallery up top. We'll provide the specific details for each shoe below.
11 signature kicks, one grand finale. Along with the "8:24" colorway that Nike is releasing for the Kobe 11, the All-Star Game version features little touches and odes to Canada. The black and glowing green colorway pays homage to the Northern Lights, while molded leather detailing on the tongue and heel make the latest and final edition of Bryant's signature line while he's still in the league stand out above the rest.
The 13th edition of LeBron James' signature line gets outlined with a gray-green upper, reminiscent of Toronto winter tones. The outsole is fitted with a cold marble texture similar to the regular signature kick, with badge details at the heel, a tribute to James' career including his 2 NBA championships.
The KD8 is template of modern art, inspired by the traditional British family banner classic look and bring a new look for the KD8 of Flyweave vamp. Removable heel and tongue badge making more aesthetic, and white and ice blue and white sole design is a symbol of Toronto winter cold weather and light blue marbling.
Anthony Davis doesn't currently own a signature line with Nike but that doesn't mean the Air Audacity's he'll rock on the court won't have homages to him as a player and his trademark. "FEAR THE BROW" encircles the sole along with embroidered crests on each tongue that honor not just his three consecutive selections to the NBA's Sunday classic but the city of Toronto as well.
After returning from a nasty broken leg in 2014, Paul George was at one point an MVP candidate early in the year. Rewarded with yet another All-Star Game selection, George will lace up in a Nike Hyperlive PE that is as easily Canadian as it gets. With a majority red colorway, the tongue is outfitted with the local area code and maple leaf, the most recognizable symbol of Canada that isn't Drake.
Along with the sneakers, the Nike Royalty Collection features a bevy of goods including backpack, hat, t-shirt, Hyperelite Crew sock, and Hypermesh jacket. NikeiD options will be available as well. All of these items, including the five sneakers will hit the market on February 11th. Just in case you needed any added incentive to get someone something for Valentine's Day.


We print step and repeats. We ship them to you, we also offer to rent or sell you the frame it's up to you no tools needed just zip ties!
We keep it simple, we have been doing it for years we are based out of souther California and can ship UPS to the 48 states not including HI, Alaska!
What you get depends on what your needs are, most steps are 8' tall and either 6', 8', or 10' wide it's up to you width wise, the standard for most events is 10' wide but some smaller events do fine with 6' or 8' as it's less to print a smaller area.
Keep in mind we can print up to 150' long, so a 20' step is easy for us to print, we just use 3 uprights and 4 crossbars.
Now we hem the edges and we run either grommets or pole pockets, it's up to you. A pole pocket along the top and grommets on the side to the bottom corners gives a nice clean look.
Our base plates are slip fit and the top cross bar is just snap as well as the 3' crossbar, all bars are alloy 1.5" diameter.
Turn time on the step is normally 5 days we can turn faster but rush fees do apply and it can get expensive so Plan Ahead!
We can lay it out for you if you want the cost is $85 an hour and it all depends on how many sponsors you have and what the art work is like as to how long it's going to take, most of the time 1hr is enough if you give us correct artwork.
We print step and repeats on 13oz white vinyl we don't charge more or less for colors, you get 16million to choose from use them or go with one color across the board it's up to you. Lots of people mostly use white background with logos but feel free to use any color you want. We charge $5 per SqFt. Plus shipping to print.
We also can print on boards but that's not as popular as it takes a lot of room since they are 4'x8' and can only fit in larger vehicles. If you set up the step with our system of poles and bases with pole pockets the way we suggest your step will be plenty taunt and wrinkle free so the pictures won't have reflections from the flash, as I have been shooting picts for over 38yrs.
Any Questions just email us at the below button!


Fuel Handling Accessory | Brand : Traveller | Product Width : 5 in. | Product Length : 1-3/5 in. | Product Height : 1-3/5 in. | Package Width : 15 in. | Package Length : 21-3/5 in. | Package Height : 8 in. | Package Weight : 46 lb.
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Q: Is there a way to migrate SourceSafe with HISTORY into SVN? Is there a way to migrate SourceSafe with HISTORY into a SVN ?
Ideally I'd like to use VisualSVN Server, but I don't really want to lose my SourceSafe history. If I have to I will though.

A: A long time ago (it seems) I tried to migrate a SourceSafe DB to subversion using vss2svn, but finally gave up. There were several problems, IIRC:

*

*you have to make sure that the SS DB is consistent (e.g. Analyze does not find any problems or is able to fix them).

*it took a very long time to migrate the DB, because it was quite big.

*finally the migration failed due to some problems with parsing dates. I wasn't able to find the reason for the problem, but I guess it was due to the fact that we use DD.MM.YYY date format instead of US date format.

So finally we decided to keep the SourceSafe DB intact (read-only) and just migrate the current version into subversion. So far, there were very few occasions where we had to go back to SourceSafe to check something.
Hope this helps.
BTW: it does not matter whether you use VisualSVN Server or subversion directly (svnserver). The repository format is the same in both cases.

A: Try the vss2svn script.
Or the vss2svn project.

A: I successfully converted our nasty VSS database including history.  I blog about the experience here.  The conversion highlight is:
"All of the conversion tools also required the source VSS database be clean of corruption before the conversion.  This turned out to be much harder and time consuming than you might think.  Running the VSS Analyze tool on a copy of the database showed hundreds of corruptions and would not run to completion without blue screening the computer it was running on.
To get around this we reduced the copy database by deleting the directories that we didn't want to convert.  Unfortunately VSS will report each corruptions during the deleting process causing hundreds of message boxes that the user must mindlessly click for the process to continue.
Once that point was reached, we used the tool VSS2SVN to create dump files that were imported into Subversion."

A: We used Polarion SVN Importer to migrate VSS to SVN with full history.

A: I successfully managed to migrate the several source safe repositories into SVN using vss2svn script. My suggestions are, do it in small chunks - we had a lot of little projects and a couple of medium side projects, which all managed to be moved successfully to SVN.
I had a couple of problems:

*

*Big files failed to be written in to the SVN dump file format, I submitted a patch to make it work, I think someone wrote it a bit more sophisticatly after I was done.

*The root directory structure was not copied across correctly. The VSS repository was organised as $/client/project. The svn repository ended up being organised as svn://server/randomdirectory/anotherrandomdirectory/client/project. So I fixed these by editing the dumpfile before importing it (I think it was find replace "/randomdirectory' with ''.

A: Yes, use the VSS2SVN project on Codeplex. I've updated it so it maintains history, comments, author and date properties when migrating to SVN. Takes a bit longer, but I don;t think that matters as its not something you do everyday.
It also has an option to update the repository with files from VSS past a certain date, so you can update an initial dump later on.

A: At my company I tried repeatedly to migrate a (big) SourceSafe repository to Subversion with vss2svn. I even caused a small contribution regarding codepage support (we had filenames in Greek). If I remember correctly (this happened last spring; i.e. of 2009), our main problem (the one that made us finally dismiss migration) was that permanently deleted files that were cross-linked/moved between wanted and unwanted parts of the repository were blocking the migration.
My suggestion: If you can't do it in a fully Analyzed repository, don't waste more time. Just draw a line and start with a new subversion repository.
Note: Permanently deleting a file in SourceSafe makes the file totally unrecoverable, which is something entirely incompatible with CVS/SVN-type source control systems (and, I suppose, other source control systems as well).

A: My company has developed a Source Safe to Subversion migration tool:
http://www.abstrakti.com/Products/Krepost
This tool was developed after having problems with every other tool, when we had to migrate a customer's repository. Also, this is the only tool that can import SourceSafe labels into SVN. Additionally, it's able to deal with most of SourceSafe repository corruptions, and offers a painless migration to users who don't want to spend a few days debugging into C# code.
Let me know if you have any problems, I'll be glad to help you.
Eric.

redpajama_set_name: RedPajamaStackExchange


text:
A fish inside a jellyfish: A one-in-a-million photo
By Euan McKirdy, CNN
Updated 10:58 AM EDT, Wed June 8, 2016
A hapless fish, swallowed whole by a jellyfish, tries to escape in this image by ocean photographer Tim Samuel in Byron Bay, Australia.
Tim Samuel Photography
Ocean photographer captures amazing shot of fish swallowed whole by jellyfish
Marine biologists have said that they've never seen anything like it, he says
An Australian ocean photographer has captured a one-in-a-million example of the cruelty of life in the deep – a fish peering out into the ocean, helpless, from inside a jellyfish.
Tim Samuel, a self-described "ocean obsessed… lover of photography and adventures," captured the image off Pass Beach in Byron Bay, Australia.
He told CNN he was snorkeling out to a reef with a friend and collaborator, videographer Franny Plumridge, to photograph turtles and was swimming in open water between the shore and a reef when he came across the unusual sight.
"There were no other fish in sight," he told CNN by phone. "I just stumbled upon it."
He says he followed it around for about 20 to 30 minutes, and, despite the difficulties of focusing on such a small subject, was able to take a few photos, which he published to his website and Instagram account.
Underwater treasures: 10 stunning vintage photos
The fish, which was still alive, was trying to swim but the jellyfish kept veering it off course.
'Let nature take its course'
"(The fish) seemed to be struggling a little bit, as it would swim around, it would try to swim in a straight line but the jellyfish would knock it off course, would send it in little circles or loops.
"It was a tough decision, I definitely thought about setting it free, but in the end decided to just let nature run its course."
Much of Byron Bay, where Samuel is based, is a designated marine park and is protected from fishing. As a result, Samuel says, marine life is thriving.
He says he's been in touch with marine biologists through the nature publication Australian Geographic, who "say they've never seen anything like it.
"At the time knew I'd stumbled upon something pretty special."
The publication quoted Ian Tibbetts, a marine biologist at the Center for Marine Science at the University of Queensland, who suggests the fish could be a juvenile trevally, which are known to use jellyfish stingers as protection.
"It's difficult to tell whether disaster has just struck, or whether the fish is happy to be in there," he is quoted as saying.
"Although by the photographer's description of the fish swimming, my guess is that it is probably quite happy to be protected in there"
In Indonesia, Raja Ampat's coral reefs astound divers
Denizens of the Deep —
Precuthona are a very small nudibranch variety (less than two in. in length) and live in the shallow waters of the tidal zone to 100 ft deep. See the complete gallery on TIME.com.
The Phyllodoce Citrina is avery active polychaeta that averaging nine in. in length
ALEXANDER SEMENOV
Clione Limacina, or Sea Angel, is an excellent swimmer and dangerous predator, feeding exclusively on another pteropod mollusk , the Sea Butterfly. It is found for only a few weeks in the White Sea before disappearing for the remainder of the year.
This image of a Alitta Virens' head displays its four eyes, antennae and sensory papillae. However, unseen are two sharp jaws that take up one-third of the 15 in. body length.
The Coryphella Polaris is one of the most rare and most beautiful specimens found in the White Sea.
The Lepidonotus Squamatus has the ability to glow.
Photos: Denizens of the Deep


Made to Order: 'The Beatles'. A great gift as a present for a Friend/Beatles Fan/Colleague/Mum/Dad/Family. This picture can be personalised...the possibilities are endless. A present to make you smile! I like to be a little quirky and 'extend' my pictures onto the mount using variations of ink, paint and/or other bits and pieces, with a title written in pencil.
No two pictures are the same due to the materials used.
Use only a very soft damp cloth when cleaning acrylic surfaces. Care should be taken to avoid scratches. It is possible to scratch acrylic, so NEVER use any scouring compounds or chemical cleaners even if they are environmentally friendly, organic or non-scented. Acrylic is stable when exposed to sunlight so will not crack or yellow when used in normal environments.


text:
Oral History Studio
The Oral History Studio is a private space within the exhibition where visitors are invited to record their personal stories or reflections. An Alphawood Gallery staff member is available to interview visitors who are willing to share oral histories or thoughts related to the themes and questions posed by Then They Came for Me. Equipped with state-of-the-art audio and video recording equipment, the studio is available by walk-in (during scheduled hours) or by appointment. We encourage advance appointments, which can be scheduled using the form below. Once recordings are processed, they will be archived and, if individual permission is granted, potentially made public on the Alphawood Gallery website. We hope you will consider sharing your story with us!
Over the course of the exhibition, nearly 80 oral histories were recorded via the Oral History Studio. This oral history project, which documents first-hand experiences of the WWII incarceration and resettlement of Japanese Americans, will continue under the auspices of the Japanese American Service Committee (JASC) of Chicago beginning in January 2018. Interested participants may request an appointment to record using the form below.
Aylen Hasegawa
Aylen Hasegawa was born on February 19, 1942, the day that Franklin D. Roosevelt signed Executive Order 9066. He and his family lived on a farm near Puyallup, Washington before the evacuation orders were implemented. After spending about two and a half years in Minidoka concentration camp, his father applied for indefinite leave and relocated to Rockford, Illinois. In this clip, Aylen describes his father's experiences of leaving camp and trying to adjust to a new town, despite facing economic struggles and racial hostility.
Paul Arakawa & Susie Kimura
Paul Arakawa and Susie Kimura are longtime family friends. Though from different parts of California, the two recall how the FBI detained Japanese American leaders in their communities at the start of the war. As a precautionary measure, both families burned any objects they feared could be used against them as evidence of loyalty to Japan. Once the U.S. declared war, many Japanese American families burned or buried family photographs, documents, and heirlooms to avoid suspicion and arrest.
Michiko Frances Chikahisa
Frances Chikahisa, whose family was sent to Santa Anita racetrack and Rohwer concentration camp during the war, notes that family routines and dynamics were disrupted in camp. Due to the cafeteria-style meal system, for example, many families no longer ate together as children and parents would separate for meals. While many describe this as loss of parental control, Frances explains how her father resisted and would have the family bring food back to their barrack in order to maintain some semblance of normal family activities.
Kazuko May Fujishima
When Kazuko May Fujishima's family learned about the evacuation orders, her father purchased three large trunks. She explains how he filled them with the family's valuables, and left them with a trusted family friend. "We were lucky," she explains, as many families who did the same did not receive their valuables back after the war.
Gary K. Hasegawa
"I think that in a strange way, the experience toughened us up…But I certainly would not want this to happen to anybody else, to anybody." Gary Kenji Hasegawa discusses the impacts that the camps had on his parents and his family.
Gwen Castle Heaton
In 1944, Gwen Castle Heaton was a student at William Penn College (now, William Penn University) in Oskaloosa, Iowa. At that time, the college was accepting Japanese American students who were incarcerated during the war. In the following clips, Gwen describes how the president of the Quaker college, Cecil Hinshaw, made efforts to invite non-White students to attend despite the racial hostility that existed in the local area during that time. She provides an example of the discrimination faced by Black and Japanese American students.
Helen Ideno
When Helen Ideno was an infant, she and her family were sent to live in a horse stable at Santa Anita racetrack before being transferred to Amache concentration camp. By the time Helen was a high school student, she found that there was no mention of the camps in her history textbooks. She describes how, in 1958, the principal at Marshall High School in Chicago censored her speech as valedictorian when she referenced her family's experiences during World War II.
Joyce Kubose
Joyce Kubose was born in Chicago to Reverend Gyomay and Mrs. Minnie Kubose, who founded the Chicago Buddhist Church (now the Buddhist Temple of Chicago) in 1944. In this oral history, Joyce describes the lives of her parents and how they came to be great leaders not just within the Japanese American community of Chicago, but in the fields of American Buddhism and Japanese tea ceremony, as well. She also describes her own experiences of growing up as a Sansei on Chicago's south and north sides.
Gene Kazuo Ideno
Gene Kazuo Ideno's father was picked up by the FBI at the onset of the war and sent to a Department of Justice (DOJ) camp in Santa Fe. Meanwhile, Kazuo was sent with his mother and baby brother to camp in Rohwer, Arkansas. Through censored correspondence, Kazuo's father instructed his family to meet him at the DOJ camp in Crystal City, which held prisoners of German, Italian, and Japanese ancestry. In this clip, Kazuo reflects on his feelings as a young person about his identity as an American.
Eunice Kurisu
Eunice Kurisu's family had exactly one week to leave their mother's chicken farm when the evacuation orders were announced in April 1942. Her family was first sent to live in horse stables at the Santa Anita Racetrack before being transferred to Jerome concentration camp in Arkansas. In order to apply for indefinite leave from camp, inmates needed to secure employment before departure. Eunice explains how she was able to leave camp in June 1943 to live in Chicago's Hyde Park neighborhood as a domestic worker.
Minoru Imamura
"I just felt so hard for my dad and mother. That they were able to buy a farm for their sons, and then plant a crop that is ready to harvest, and to lose it all. It's very painful. That's what my feeling was all through my years in camp and when I was in the service, too." In this oral history, Min describes his experiences of being incarcerated in Amache concentration camp, of serving as a replacement for the 442nd, and of ultimately settling in Chicago.
Junko Mizuta
In the evening after Pearl Harbor was attacked, the FBI arrested Junko Mizuta's father without providing any information about where they were taking him or his alleged crime. He was transferred between four or five different Department of Justice camps throughout the war while the family was sent to Minidoka concentration camp, unaware of his location. In this clip, Junko describes her father's arrest and the events that followed.
Susumu Mukushina
Susumu Mukushina was born in October 1942, just before his parents were sent to Heart Mountain concentration camp. With the conclusion of the war, the family went to Seabrook Farms, New Jersey before moving to Chicago, where there was word of better financial opportunity. "Our neighbors were mostly cockroaches," he recalls, describing his first home on Chicago's South Side. In this clip, Mukushina explains the housing discrimination that existed in Chicago at that time.
Mary Ozaki
Mary Ozaki's parents were U.S.-born farmers outside of San Diego before the start of the war. After settling in Los Angeles and starting a family, they were transferred between Tule Lake, Gila River, and Crystal City camps. In this clip, Mary describes being released from camp to Seabrook Farms, New Jersey, where her parents worked on a farm. After getting word that a cousin had housing property in Chicago, Mary and her family moved to the city in 1949.
Stephen Tomoji Saka
Stephen Tomoji Saka was ten years old and living in Los Angeles when WW II broke out. With his four siblings and single mother, Steve was sent directly to Manzanar concentration camp in 1942. In his oral history, he explains how the camps in fact helped his family as they had been previously living in poverty, receiving most support from a local Catholic Church. In this clip, Steve explains some of the impacts of the war, including his name change when he left Manzanar for Ann Arbor, Michigan.
The Sugano Cousins
Susie, Patti, Makoto and Dean are cousins and children of the six Sugano brothers. Together, they describe their fathers' experiences during and after the war. They explain that four of the brothers were incarcerated in Gila River concentration camp, while one brother lived outside of the exclusion zone and was not imprisoned, and another decided against returning to the U.S. from Japan. Most of the brothers eventually resettled to Chicago, where they founded the National Chick Sexing Association and were leaders in the chick sexing industry.
Mary F. Taira
Mary Taira, whose photograph is displayed in the exhibition, describes the events that took place after the photograph was taken. Her family was removed from their home in Los Angeles, California and detained in Santa Anita racetrack. They were later transferred to Amache concentration camp in Grenada, Colorado. The photograph was taken as her family was boarding the train to Santa Anita.
Anne Watanabe
"It was treated as sort of a footnote in my family." Anne Watanabe is a fourth generation (Yonsei) Japanese Canadian, whose family was incarcerated in the Tashme and Lillooet camps in British Columbia during World War II. Anne explains how the incarceration of her family was rarely discussed, and describes her experience of learning about internment as "piecemeal."
Gary Yamagiwa
"And that's when what had happened…first really hit me." Gary Yamagiwa was born in Chicago to parents who resettled from Poston and Tule Lake concentration camps. In this clip, Gary describes witnessing the public hearings hosted by the Commission on Wartime Relocation and Internment of Civilians (CWRIC) in 1981, which ultimately contributed to the awarding of redress in 1988. For many like Gary, these testimonies provided some of the first details about the incarceration, as many Issei and Nisei did not openly share about their experiences in camp.
Rulie Yamamoto
In 1942, Rulie Yamamoto and her family were sent directly to Tule Lake from their vegetable farm in Brooks, Oregon. After about a year in camp, two of her seven siblings moved to the Chicagoland area for domestic work. At her father's request, her brother found an apartment building that the family then purchased and leased to incoming Japanese Americans from camp. In this clip, Rulie describes the property and business that her family opened in Chicago's Clark and Division area to accommodate the growing Japanese American community there.
Iwao (Rocky) Yamanaka
"There was so many Japanese here in Chicago that weren't here before the war." Rocky is 90 years old and a Chicago native. When his father was young, he came to Chicago with an American family before returning to Japan as an adult to marry Rocky's mother. His parents moved to Chicago's north side to raise a family, where Rocky was born. At the war's end, Rocky was drafted into the U.S. army and served for two years. When he returned to his hometown, he explains his surprise to find a burgeoning Japanese American population.
To Schedule a Recording Session:
Fill out all required and relevant fields below.
Choose a first and second choice of date.
Please make your reservations at least 2 weeks in advance.
Cancellations require 48 hours' notice and must be made directly with your gallery staff contact.
Your First & Last Name*
Oral History Details
Interviewee First & Last Name*
Relationship to interviewee
Requested Date & Time of Recording Session
Recording appointments may be requested within the following times: Wednesday from
1pm to 4pm, or Thursday through Sunday, 11am – 5pm.
1st Choice Recording Date & Time*
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Do you need accessibility accommodations? If yes, please describe.
Additional Information/Comments:
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Please note: Your appointment is not confirmed until you receive an official confirmation letter.
info@alphawood.org
Alphawood Gallery is Closed. The next Alphawood Exhibition is being hosted at Wrightwood659.org
© 2021 Alphawood Gallery.


Hang this print up on your wall and let it serve as a daily reminder.
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This print is handmade in Sydney, Australia.