text:
Transportation Deployment Casebook/2024/Jakarta BRT system

Technology
Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) is a bus system with special lanes, stations, and vehicles that operate with higher speed, reliability, and safety than a regular bus in its own separated right-of-way independent from other traffic. It has been the primary mode of transportation in Jakarta, the capital city of Indonesia, for the past two decades.

There are some main characteristics that BRT has :

BRT can provide high-quality massive transportation that costs much less than an LRT system. Other than that, it gives several advantages. First, the right-of-way prevents buses from getting stuck in traffic jams, the high reliability of its timetable, and improved safety. Second, the wide door and the same level between the platform and the bus make boarding and getting off a smooth and efficient process. It leads to more efficient dwelling time in the station and equality for those who use wheelchairs. Third, BRT has the flexibility to operate on all kinds of roadways, can use higher or lower capacity vehicles depending on the need of the service, and could also adopt alternative routes in case of eventual work or accidents.
 * Running ways: BRT vehicles generally operate on exclusive transit routes or dedicated bus lanes. Vehicles may also work in regular traffic
 * Stations: BRT stations range from enhanced shelters to major transit centers
 * Vehicles: Quiet, high-capacity vehicles employ clean fuels to help the environment
 * Intelligent Transport System (ITS): ITS technologies provide automatic vehicle locating (AVL) systems, passenger information systems, and traffic signal preference at intersections
 * Service patterns: High-frequency service. The combination of local and express services can shorten long-distance travel times

Due to its lower cost and flexibility compared to rail-based transportation, the BRT could be developed within various markets, from minor to megacities, with a population of 200.000 – 10 million. However, BRT has been chiefly used in large cities as an alternate or complementary public transportation solution when rail is not feasible or inexpensive.

Context
During the Dutch colonialization era in 1869, Batavia (Jakarta) had its first mass public transport system, which was horse trams running along the main streets. It quickly became a favorite among the people until problems emerged due to horse feces and the exhaustion of the horses. To solve this issue, trams switched to steam power in 1883 before switching to electric power in 1886. The electric trams were quieter and did not emit thick black smoke like the steam trams, making them the primary mode of public transport. The steam trams were then used as freight trains from the border area of Batavia.

Unfortunately, the tram system was discontinued in 1962 due to its outdated nature, high maintenance costs, and the availability of city buses as a more efficient means of transportation. In 1963, 100 buses from Australia operated as the new public transportation in Jakarta. Besides the city buses, small-sized passenger cars, namely Oplet, have also emerged as alternative public transportation. Then, in 1979, it changed to Mikrolet, which had the same function but with a newer car and advanced machines because the older Oplet was no longer functioning correctly.

Jakarta then became a metropolis that continues to grow rapidly. However, its public transportation system relies heavily on road-based modes of buses and paratransit. Private companies or groups of individual owners rent out buses on a daily cash basis to operators who provide services that are not standardized. Additionally, the poor quality of public transportation has prompted people to switch to private vehicles, contributing significantly to the city's transportation. Despite past efforts to enhance mass transit, such as implementing a curbside bus-only lane in the primary business center during the 1980s, enforcement has been challenging and inadequate. These issues, along with unregulated motorization leading to a decline in the quality of life and the lack of proper public transportation, prompted the implementation of the first BRT program in Jakarta, Indonesia.

Invention
Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) was first proposed in 1937 in Chicago and aims to transform the rail lines on highways and local streets into express bus routes featuring dedicated lanes. In the late 1950s, Washington DC included grade-separated busways in its transit plan to alleviate traffic congestion. In 1963, Robert Crain introduced key BRT concepts such as exclusive lanes, pre-boarding fare collection, and traffic priority, now standard features in BRT systems worldwide. Crain's analysis suggested that BRT could provide high-capacity transit at a fraction of the cost of rail while highlighting the importance of passenger information, marketing the service, and overcoming negative perceptions of public transit. One of the first busways was introduced in 1969 on the Henry G. Shirley Memorial Highway in Northern Virginia, USA. Runcorn, a town in the UK, opened its inaugural busway corridor in 1971. This corridor was an elevated section that connected to a retail center. The 22-kilometer Runcorn busway played a crucial role in transforming the urban landscape.

The idea of modern BRT was first realized with the introduction of the "land tube" in Curitiba, Brazil, in 1973. The city had initially planned for a rail-based system, but due to limited investment, it created exclusive bus lanes departing from the city center instead. This innovative transportation system, which featured tube-shaped stations and articulated buses, quickly became a global example of excellence, prompting further development in the city.

Although mechanically guided busways emerged in Essen, Germany, and other parts of Europe during the 1980s oil crisis, BRT expansion stopped. In the 1990s, BRT was often regarded as a less desirable alternative to rail, particularly in smaller cities or those with limited budgets. However, the inauguration of the TransMillenio system in Bogota in 2000, serving over 7 million people, demonstrated BRT's ability to serve large cities efficiently. TransMilenio includes a dedicated busway, articulated buses, upgraded stations, an innovative card-based fare collection system, an updated control system, and a low-cost option for low-income customers. TransMilenio trunk routes run on a dedicated busway in the city center.

Early Market Development
In its initial development, Transjakarta (the BRT system in Jakarta) aims to serve the Sudirman – Thamrin area, the Central Business District (CBD) of Jakarta. Transjakarta’s first corridor connected this area from the southern to the northern side, namely the Blok M to Kota corridor, which is 12,9 km long.

While the existing commuters get good quality public transport, Transjakarta also tries to catch a new market in its first corridor by integrating the Blok M station to surrounding malls with easy and comfortable tunnel access. Meanwhile, Kota station also provides a wide pedestrian pathway from the station to Kota Tua, a famous touristy area of old Batavia or Jakarta’s old town with Dutch-era buildings.

The Role of Policy
Transjakarta was inspired from BRT concept of Transmilenio in Bogota. During 2001 – 2003, the governemnt of Jakarta had some discussion with Bogota’s City Mayor and visited Bogota to learn more about this BRT system. This process was supported by a non-governmental organization, named the Institute for Transportation and Development Policy (ITDP), who conducted a review for BRT system world-wide and then provided technical assistance to the city of Jakarta during its initial development. Then, on 15 January 2004, the first corridor began to operate with the same concept as Transmilenio, which has a dedicated bus lane, collecting the fare in advance, and providing an elevated platform for quick boarding and alighting.

During the initial phase, Transjakarta innovated by placing an on-board staff member on each bus to assist passengers. These staff members were typically stationed near the door to ensure smooth boarding processes and to maintain security throughout the journey on the bus.

Some policies are applied in operating Transjakarta. A minimum standard of service is embedded to manage the operation of Transjakarta. It regulates the headway of the buses, the fares, and facilities in the service. On the other hand, to secure the right of way for Transjakarta, the city of Jakarta enacted a Local Government Regulation that prohibited private vehicles from passing through the busway. Violators may face imprisonment or fines.

The main characteristics of Transmilenio, which are utilized in Transjakarta, have become fundamental principles in planning new developments. Stations are situated in the median of the road with high platforms, and the bus fleet has become an integral component of Transjakarta's future infrastructure.

Growth Phase
In line with the growth of ridership and corridor expansion, Transjakarta has upgraded its service and infrastructure to accommodate more passengers and enhance service efficiency. Gradually, they increased their rolling stock and replaced buses with articulated buses. Additionally, starting in 2011, Transjakarta began efforts to serve the last-mile trip by providing feeder buses. They collaborated with existing bus companies serving those areas, such as Metromini and Kopaja, to ensure a minimum standard of service consistent with Transjakarta. Moreover, Transjakarta endeavored to meet passengers' needs more effectively. Since 2014, Transjakarta has operated 24 hours, providing special bus services from midnight until 5 AM. In 2016, they introduced special buses for women to enhance security and safety, addressing concerns about overcrowded buses and sexual harassment. The Kartu Layanan Gratis Transjakarta or Free Service Card (TJ Card) was also introduced in 2016 to encourage more passengers. Additionally, in 2017, Transjakarta partnered with a private company, Trafi, to offer real-time bus position information through a mobile application. Furthermore, in 2018, Transjakarta introduced a premium service called Royaltrans to cater to commuters seeking enhanced comfort.

The government has played a pivotal role in shaping Transjakarta's growth. A company was established to better manage Transjakarta and provide fare subsidies. In 2016, an odd-even vehicle policy was implemented to encourage public transportation usage and boost Transjakarta's ridership. Private companies have also been involved in manufacturing buses, developing fare collection systems, operating feeder services, and managing station facilities. Since 2006, private companies, supervised by the city government, have operated the second corridor. In 2013, banks were included to improve the ticketing system through smart cards.

One notable policy issue during TransJakarta's growth was capacity constraints, particularly during peak hours. To address this, TransJakarta implemented measures such as increasing bus frequency, optimizing scheduling, and expanding the fleet size. Despite criticism from existing bus companies, efforts were made to collaborate in providing feeder services. Additionally, Transjakarta introduced special services for people with disabilities.

The government has also adopted bold policies in its National Medium-Term Development Plan (RPJMN) to promote public transportation and restrict private vehicles. This served as the basis for other policies, including increased Transjakarta subsidies.

Maturity Phase
Transjakarta has implemented a range of sustainability efforts aimed at reducing emissions and enhancing service quality for passengers. One such initiative involves the introduction of low-emission buses, including e-buses, which began in 2022. This transition is designed to minimize the carbon footprint of the transportation system. Additionally, Transjakarta has integrated with other modes of transportation such as informal micro-buses through Jak Lingko integration program, expanding passengers' access to various areas more easily. Moreover, the system has modernized its stations to enhance convenience for commuters. Despite potential competition arising with the operationalization of the Mass Rapid Transit (MRT) system in 2019, Transjakarta has established connections with other lines and even experienced increased ridership following the MRT's commencement of operations. This is attributed to Transjakarta's role in facilitating MRT passengers' journeys to their final destinations, a service not provided by the MRT itself. Furthermore, Transjakarta and the MRT have collaborated to integrate several stations, improving transit efficiency and enhancing the overall customer experience. Transjakarta has not only integrated with the MRT but also extended its integration to include the LRT, which commenced operations in 2022.

Transjakarta leverages big data derived from ticketing information to revamp its service and deliver a customer experience that aligns with passengers' expectations. This data enables the transportation system to gain insights into people's travel patterns and make appropriate adjustments to enhance service delivery.

Data Collection and Methodology
To identify the periods of birthing, growth, maturity of Transjakarta, a model is used to predict the passenger of the mode.

$$S(t)=Smax/[1+exp(-b(t-ti)]$$

where:

The data used comes from the Jakarta Transportation Statistics, an annual publication created by the Central Agency of Statistics.
 * S(t) = the status measure,
 * t = time (usually in years),
 * ti = the inflection time (year in which 1/2 Smax is achieved),
 * Smax = saturation status level.
 * b = a coefficient to be estimated.

Results and Interpretation
The data from the initial year of operation and the most recent data published was used to construct the S-curve figure, with the projected model stated below:

 * Final Market Size (Smax) = 520 million passengers.
 * Slope (b) = 0.1304
 * Intercept (c) = -264.143
 * R2 = 0.7478
 * Inflection Time (ti) = 2024 (2024.392)

The graph above depicts the annual passenger growth trend, including both actual data and estimates based on modelling results. Compared to actual data, the modelling results show that Transjakarta is still in the growth stage and has not yet reached maturity. This is evident by the slope, which is still rapidly increasing.


text:
Transportation Deployment Casebook/Singapore MRT

= Introduction =

The Mass Rapid Transit (MRT) is a mass transit system in the Republic of Singapore. Conceived in the 1960s, and built in the 1980s, the MRT system now stretches to all corners of Singapore. The MRT system features a lot of innovative technology, and is projected to grow further in the coming decades.

= Qualitative =

Technology
The Singapore MRT is a heavy-rail rapid transit system. It runs autonomous trains across six lines and has 140 stations. There are also 3 LRT systems to supplement the main MRT system. The trains run on standard gauge 1435mm track and use DC third rail or overhead wire electrification (depending on the line). Newer trains are fitted with electronic maps, as well as external information displays (see fig. 2).

The main advantage of this system is that it is fully grade separated. This means there are no level crossings to slow down the trains. This allows the trains to offer high frequency services, 2-3 minutes on-peak and 5-7 minutes off peak. It also has a higher capacity than comparable modes, such as buses.

The MRT features many innovative technologies, which have been borrowed my many transit authorities around the world. All 140 stations are fitted with platform-screen doors, and newer stations also double as bomb-shelters. Newer underground stations also have elevated entrances to stop water entering the station in the event of a flash flood (see fig. 1). Additionally, the system features many cross-platform transfers, including a double cross-platform transfer at City Hall and Raffles Place between the East West and North South Lines. This enables passengers to travel in either direction on the line they intend to transfer to simply by crossing over to the other side of the platform at one of those stations. All stations have numbered exits for convenience, and many stations have exits directly into adjacent buildings.

Singapore uses a station numbering system consisting of a two-letter line prefix, and an individual station number. For example, Toa Payoh on the North South line is numbered as NS19. Interchanges have multiple numbers, and there are a number of exceptions to the station numbering rule (e.g. Founders’ Memorial TE22A, Tanah Merah EW4/CG, Punggol NE17/PTC to name a few). Singapore also numbers the end of its lines to make it easier for passengers to find the right platform. For example, trains towards Punggol are numbered as 7 on the system map and on station signage.

The system uses electronic cards for payment. There are multiple types of fare cards in circulation, most notable being the EZ-Link and NETS flashpay cards. However, today passengers can tap on and off using credit and debit cards, including digital wallets, due to the new CEPAS standard.

The MRT uses technology from all around the world. The MRT uses many different types of trains from manufacturers including Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Siemens, CRRC, and Alstom. Signaling systems come from Alstom, Westinghouse, Siemens, and Thales. Westinghouse also produced a portion of the platform screen doors.

Birth of the MRT
In the 1960s, Singapore was a small island with a growing population. This led to high traffic congestion and inefficient journeys. Growing congestion on the bus network was also causing concern, and a solution was needed. A joint study by the United Nations Development Programme and the Singapore State and City Planning Department was conducted to forecast Singapore’s growth in the coming years. . The 1967 study found that Singapore’s population was expected to balloon to 3.4 Million by 1992, and that to cope with the increase, Singapore would need to restrict cars, improve roads, and build a mass transit system. . Support for the MRT was not universal. There was a push for a bus-only system. Back then, Singapore was not the rich metropolis we know today, and the lower cost of buses was very appealing. In 1972, the Singapore Mass Transit Study was done, which recommended the construction of a heavy rail network. In 1980, consultants from Harvard University were brought in for a second opinion. This study found that an all-bus system may work, as long as a system was put in place to restrict car usage. However, a government study was then done in 1981, which found that a bus only system would not be enough. Following on from this, the Singapore Government decided to begin construction in 1982.

Construction began in 1983 on what is now the North South and East West lines, and the first section opened in 1987, with an official opening in 1988 by Prime Minister Lee Kwan Yew.

Growth of the MRT
Following the initial success of the MRT system, growth followed over the next few decades. In 1996 the Woodlands extension was completed which brought the MRT to the north of Singapore. Up to this point, there had been a branch line extending from Jurong East up to Choa Chu Kang. With the Woodlands extension complete, this branch was now linked up to the rest of the North South Line. As a result, trains no longer branched off the East West Line at Jurong East, and instead ran along the North South Line through Woodlands before running along the old branch section and terminating at Jurong East, forming a loop around Singapore's Central Catchment Nature Reserve.

In 2003, the North East Line was opened, which connected the north-east of Singapore with the rest of the MRT network. This was Singapore's first entirely underground MRT line.

Up to this point, the MRT system was almost entirely radial, with all three lines heading towards the Downtown Core. To address this, the Circle Line was constructed, opening in 2006. This allowed passengers to travel between suburbs without having to go through the city, helping to reduce crowding in the busy Downtown Core. The construction of the circle line saw the MRT’s first serious accident in the Nicoll Highway tunnel collapse. The damage was so severe that the whole collapsed area was filled in, the tunnels realigned, and the station reconstructed on a new site.

While the MRT was expanding, three new LRT systems were also built. These systems consist of automated people movers running on rubber tyres which connect to existing MRT stations with the goal of allowing passengers living in dense residential districts to get closer to their homes by rail. Although they seemed futuristic at the time, these systems are widely seen as failures as they were very expensive, unreliable, uncomfortable to ride, hard for disabled people to access, and (accounting for the time it takes to get from the sidewalk to the platform) slower than a bus. The Bukit Panjang LRT in particular is seven times less reliable than the downtown line. This line also used to contain Ten Mile Junction LRT station which was closed in 2019, making it the first and only rail station in Singapore to close due to low patronage. Government officials later admitted that the Bukit Panjang LRT system was constructed hastily in order to improve their electoral prospects.

At the moment there are three new MRT lines under construction. The Thomson-East Coast Line aims to connect the Woodlands area to the Downtown Line at Sungei Bedok via a new corridor along Singapore’s east coast. Similarly, the Cross Island line will connect the eastern part of Singapore to Ang Mo Kio and Bright Hill MRT stations along a new northern axis. This line will also provide an alternative to the heavily congested Circle Line. Lastly, the Jurong Region Line aims to serve the Jurong region by connecting commuters with the existing Boon Lay, Jurong East and Choa Chu Kang stations. Additional infill stations and extensions to existing lines are also planned. The MRT also has a number of unopened stations and shell stations ready to spring to life when future demand emerges.

Singapore has had a long-standing policy of promoting public transport over private vehicles. Singapore was the first country to implement road pricing (ERP), and the construction of the MRT system has allowed Singapore to reduce its dependence on private vehicles. As a result, the MRT is now the main way to get around Singapore.

Despite the overwhelming success of the MRT, there are multiple MRT projects that were abandoned or never build, including the East West Line Tuas South extension, and the Punggol North LRT.

Maturity
As the MRT is still expanding, the system has not yet reached its maturity. However, the system will reach its peak eventually. Singapore is an island, which means (with limited exceptions) there can be no more urban sprawl. Any future new MRT lines beyond the ones currently planned will likely provide new routes through existing areas, rather than serving new areas. As the population of Singapore increases, so must its population density, which may mean more MRT lines in the future.

Government Policies
Initially, the biggest policy of the Singapore Government was the decision to fund the numerous transport studies, as well as fully financing the initial construction of the MRT system. This indicates strong and unwavering support from the government of the day. It is extremely common for large projects such as metro lines and freeways to be completed through Public Private-Partnerships (PPPs). This is a form of collaboration between a government and the private sector in which the private sector fully or partially funds infrastructure construction on behalf of the government, in return for extended revenue over the course of the contract. In the case of a train line, a private company would pay for the construction of the train line, and then that company would get to charge fares to customers to pay back their investment. This would normally last for many years, before the infrastructure is handed back to the government. The Singapore Government did not do this because they wanted to spur investor confidence in the country, and because they wanted to keep fares cheap. The average MRT fare is only S$0.85, and this is by design. By keeping fares low, the MRT remains a viable option for all Singaporeans, and provides a realistic alternative to driving.

One of the Singapore Government’s other long-standing policies regarding the MRT is the use of transit-oriented development (TOD). Singapore, being a small island with a big population, has the potential to be one of the most expensive real estate markets on the planet. However, housing remains accessible to most Singaporeans due to government policies designed to get Singaporeans into home ownership. In 2023, 77.8% of Singaporeans lived in public housing, known locally as HDBs after the government department that regulates them, the Housing and Development Board. All HDB units are leased out to citizens for 99 years. The main job of the HDB is to develop vacant plots of land into “new towns”, where residents can live, shop and play. These days, most HDB developments are located around MRT stations. This enables citizens who live in the HDB community to easily commute into the city, as well as reducing the need for Singaporeans to own cars. Building MRT stations increases the land value around them, which in turn leads to more businesses springing up and more economic activity. The Singapore Government’s current target is for 8 out of 10 households to be within 10 minutes of an MRT station by 2030. Despite designing its public transport to be a viable alternative to driving, a minority of Singaporeans do choose to drive. For this reason, the Singapore Government has developed road pricing systems to persuade people to drive less and use the MRT more. Singapore was the first country in the world to implement road pricing. Vehicles were charged a fee to drive into the downtown area of Singapore (known as the restricted zone). In 1998, Singapore switched to Electronic Road Pricing (ERP). This system involves gantries mounted above busy roads which charge drivers who drive through them, via units inside the vehicles similar to toll transponders (see fig. 3). The ERP charges change depending on the time of day and the prevailing congestion levels. Additionally, there is a quota on the number of vehicles allowed on the roads, and citizens have to bid for a permit to drive a car. This carrot and stick approach of making driving expensive and transit cheap, has helped to drive Singapore’s MRT ridership up, and car ownership rate down. These three policies of lowering car use, increasing public transport use, and TOD have contributed to making Singapore a more sustainable city. However, the Government is investing in new roads as well, such as the North South Corridor and Changi North Corridor, which may blunt the effectiveness of this strategy.

Currently, all future MRT stations are planned to be underground. There may be a number of reasons for this. Most new stations are likely to be in areas that are already built up, and as such, there would be no room for stations above ground. Additionally, there is a trend around the world for elevated viaducts to be seen as ugly and noisy. The Land Transport Authority (LTA) has been retrofitting existing viaducts with noise walls for this reason, and it is estimated that the social benefit of this program has exceeded S$700 Million Lastly, newer MRT stations also double as bomb shelters, which requires underground stations.

The MRT rolling stock and associated infrastructure is owned by the LTA, the transit authority of Singapore. The MRT system itself is operated by two different companies. The East West, North South, Circle, and Thomson-East Coast Lines are operated by SMRT Corporation, while the North East and Downtown Lines are operated by SBS Transit.

= Quantitative =

The MRT is currently in the growth stage of its life cycle. It is a well established system, but still has a number of extensions planned and under construction. To estimate how long the MRT will be in the future, a three-factor logistic function can be used. In this case, the function will take the form:

S(t) = Smax/[1+exp(-b(t-ti)] where:

 * s(t) is the track length of the MRT system in Kilometres
 * t is the year
 * ti is the year in which the MRT system reaches 50% of its final size
 * Smax is the final length of the MRT
 * b is a coefficient which needs to be estimated

Data
System length data from 2005 to 2021 was sourced from the LTA. Additionally, the system is expected to reach 360km by 2030, and 400km by 2040 .The dataset was assembled using these figures.

Modelling
To make the model work, values are needed for Smax, b, and ti. To estimate b and ti, a linear regression can be used. A linear regression requires the dependent variable to be linear in nature, so instead of regressing the dependent variable itself, it can be transformed into a linear form, and then transformed back to arrive at a prediction. The regression will take the form:

Y=bX+c where Y=ln(Length/(Smax-Length))

ln(Length/(Smax-Length)) is a linear transformation of the logistic function. The b term from this regression is equal to the b term in the logistic function. This regression also gives a value for ti in the form ti=c/-b where c is the constant term in the regression. In this case, ti represents the midpoint of the regression line. As Smax has not yet been estimated yet, a test value of 500km will be used. Regressing Y on the year value returned the following results:

 * b = 0.072345064
 * c = -146.1664168
 * ti = c/-b = 2020.406225
 * r2 = 0.978846792

From here, the Y values can be transformed into predictions using the formula:

Predicted Length = Smax/(1+EXP(-b*(Year-t_i))) The last step is to estimate Smax. To do this, excel solver can be used. The actual length can be subtracted from the predicted length for each year. These values can then be squared to calculate the sum of squared errors (SSE). Excel solver can then be set to minimise the SSE by changing the Smax value. Changing the Smax value will change the Y values, and therefore the regression results. However, the whole model was linked using formulas such as =SLOPE, =INTERCEPT, and =LINEST, so the regression results will refresh and still be accurate. The final model is shown below and in fig. 4:

The final coefficients were:

 * Smax = 537.9055032
 * b = 0.066316646
 * c = -134.1495991
 * ti = 2022.86465
 * r2 = 0.981442958
 * SSE = 1713.366747

Interpretation
This system length column does contain missing values, but the linear regression will still function. It should be noted that this data represents the total length of the Singapore rail network (both the MRT and LRT systems). However, as no new LRT lines have been constructed during this timeframe, and there are no plans to construct any new ones, they will not affect the accuracy of the model. The total length of the LRT system accounts for 28.8km of the system length. The data does not seem to account for the closure of Ten Mile Junction Station, which means that this data also includes tracks used to access depots, since Ten Mile Junction Station is also home to the Bukit Panjang LRT Depot which remains in use.

This model predicts that the MRT will top out at 538km, and that the inflexion year was 2022. The R2 for this model is over 98%. However, this does not mean that the model is 98% accurate. Rather, it simply means that 98% of the change in system length can be attributed to the passage of time.

The birth phase of the MRT was in the period 1987-1990, as this is when the first phase of the MRT opened. This birth phase proved the viability of the system and led into the growth phase, which continues until today. Based on the model, the growth phase seems to end around 2050. If the model is correct, by that point most the system will be constructed, and there will be very little left to build. The model predicts that by 2100, the system will be fully complete.

license: Creative Commons - Attribution Share-Alike - https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/


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User talk:41.116.152.188

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Transportation Deployment Casebook/2024/Guangzhou Metro

1 Introduction
Guangzhou City, commonly known as Guangzhou, abbreviated as Guang, Sui, and Yangcheng, is the provincial capital and sub-provincial city of Guangdong Province, the People's Republic of China, and one of the first batch of coastal open cities. Guangzhou Metro is the urban rail transit system of Guangzhou City, Guangdong Province, China. The operation scope of Guangzhou Metro covers Guangzhou City and Foshan City. As of January 2024, Guangzhou Metro has 16 operation lines and 8 under construction. Currently, 653km of Guangzhou’s local subway network is under construction, with a length of approximately 171.5km.

2 Quantitative Analysis
8.7.2024 Date source= To analyze the development history of the Guangzhou subway and the role of the subway in the urban development process of Guangzhou, the average annual number of subway passengers in Guangzhou from 1997 to 2023, the subway mileage from 1997 to 2023 and the permanent population of Guangzhou from 1997 to 2023 were selected Growth data. The following Table 1 is the population of Guangzhou, Table 2 is the mileage of the subway in Guangzhou, and Table 3 is the annual number of passengers on the Guangzhou subway.

Table 1 Guangzhou population,1997 to 2022(in millions) Table 2 Guangzhou Metro mileage ,1997 to 2023(in kms) Table 3 Guangzhou Annual Transit Ridership ,1997 to 2023(in millions) Afterthat use the data to estimate a three-parameter logistic function:

S(t) = K/[1+exp(-b(t-to))]

Where:

S(t)is the priedicted data

K is the carrying capacity of the system (in our case, the maximum number of rides&the maxmum number of population )

T is time(years)

T0 is the year in which 1/2 K is achieved

The S(t) formula can be formed to:

LN( Ridership/(K - Ridership))=bt+c or LN( Metro mileage/(K - Metro mileage))=bt+c

The K value in the above formula is a measure of saturation. Since the Guangzhou Metro has not reached saturation, the least squares method is used to find the value of K. The following two tables show the K value of Guangzhou Annual Transit Ridership and the K value of Guangzhou population respectively.

Table 4 Determine the value of K(Annual Ridership) Table 5 Determine the value of K(Population)

2.2 Analysis
The life cycle phases are shown in Figure 1, Figure 2, and Figure 3. It can be seen from Figure 1 that the current passenger travel volume of Guangzhou Metro is close to the mature stage. The first half of the existing data is in good agreement with the S-curve. However, there was a significant decline in passenger travel between 2019 and 2020. This is due to the impact of covid-19. During this period, a series of policies limited the number of subway trips and the development of Guangzhou's subway.

Figure 2 shows the distance of Guangzhou subway operation mileage. There are two stages in the figure where the mileage increased rapidly. One is around 2010, when Guangzhou hosted the Asian Games, so policies were supportive at this time. The second is between 2016 and 2019. During this stage, the annual average mileage of Guangzhou Metro The number of trips is also increasing dramatically. Basically, the average annual number of trips is positively correlated with the total operating mileage of the subway.

At the same time, there is always a plateau period 1 to 2 years before and after each rapid increase in mileage. This is a characteristic of the subway mode of transportation. A subway requires a certain amount of time to plan and construct, as well as a lot of investment. This is also the reason why subways are not suitable for small and medium-sized cities. Figure 3 shows the population growth curve of Guangzhou. The first half is basically consistent with the S-curve, but in the second half the population growth may be slowly slowed down by factors such as social, economic, cultural, and city size. Therefore, the second half of the curve may not conform to the change pattern of S-curve.

Regression Results
Table 6 Regression Results for Ridership Table 7 Regression Results for Population

3.1 Mode description
In 1863, the first subway opened in London, England. Before the advent of the subway, the main way people traveled was by horse-drawn carriage. Compared with carriages, buses and other travel modes, the advantages of the subway are: 1. The subway has a large transportation capacity compared to other modes of transportation. 2. The subway has a high punctuality rate. 3. Traveling by the subway takes less time. 4. The space required by the subway is mainly Underground space reduces the use of above ground space.

As the urban population continues to increase, subways have increasingly become a major indicator of whether a city can become an international metropolis. The sensational effect generated by the subway, the increase in popularity along the line, and the adsorption effect on people's livelihood facilities such as residential buildings, commercial outlets, star-rated hotels, cultural, educational and health facilities, urban complexes, etc. are difficult to match by any public transportation means.

While it has the above advantages, the subway also has many shortcomings: large investment, long construction period, and high operation and maintenance costs. The biggest flaw is the large loss area and high amount of losses. Especially in some cities with a small total passenger flow or characterized by tidal passenger flow, the subway will not only fail to create the economic benefits it deserves, but will also make local debts tighter.

3.1.1 Broad service coverage area
Guangzhou Metro is currently one of the most extensive and attractive subway systems in the world. Guangzhou Metro is currently the third largest urban rail transit system in mainland China and the third largest urban rail transit system in the world. As of December 28, 2023, Guangzhou Metro currently has 271 operating stations covering 12 administrative districts in Guangzhou and Chancheng District, Nanhai District, and Shunde District in Foshan City. The following is the specific information of each line of Guangzhou Metro.

3.1.2 Comfortable ride experience
In order to give passengers a better riding experience, Guangzhou Metro has added many humanized measures.

1. Female carriages: Guangzhou Metro will pilot female carriages on Line 1 starting from June 28, 2017. During the period of 07:30 to 09:30 and 17:00 to 19:00 on weekdays (excluding holidays), the last carriage of Guangzhou Metro Line 1 towards Guangzhou East Station and the first carriage towards Xilong Set as women's compartment.

2. Mother and baby room: At the end of 2016, Guangdong Metro built the first mother and baby room on a pilot basis at Guangdong South Station. Starting from 2017, maternal and child rooms will be set up at newly opened line stations. Since 2018, Guangzhou Metro has also overcome difficulties such as limited station space, insufficient water, electricity, ventilation, and passenger flow lines on existing lines, and added independent maternal and child rooms at stations that meet the conditions for renovation on existing lines.

As of May 2022, a total of 145 maternal and infant rooms have been built on the Guangzhou Metro line network, serving more than 1,000 maternal and infant passengers on average every day, including Guangzhou South Railway Station, Nansha Passenger Transport Port Station, Huadu Square Station, Airport North Station, and Conghua Passenger Transport Station A total of 6 stations including Zengcheng Square Station and Zengcheng Square Station were awarded Guangzhou Maternity and Infant Room Demonstration Sites.

3.1.3 Diverse ticketing methods
Guangzhou Metro supports a variety of ticket purchasing methods, including one-way tickets, day tickets, bus codes, credit cards, Apple pay, and facial recognition. There are a total of 8 ticket purchasing methods. Among them, the facial recognition entry function used in the east extension of Guangzhou Metro Line 5 and the second phase of Line 7 in December 2023 will also be a new direction for the future development of ticketing in various subway systems.

3.2.1 Evolution mechanism and prevention and control mechanism of major risks in urban rail transit operations
Guangzhou Metro has achieved technological breakthroughs in five aspects : First, it has overcome the panoramic scanning monitoring and early warning technology for fires in high-speed trains running in long distances, and achieved accurate monitoring and early warning of fires in running trains; second, it has broken through the vehicle-ground collaborative detection of objects beyond visual range intrusion limits. and risk analysis technology to achieve vehicle-ground coordinated over-the-horizon dynamic and accurate identification; the third is to overcome intelligent flood prediction and early warning and dynamic prevention and control decision-making technology to achieve rapid spatial-temporal early warning and prevention of the full flow path in sudden flooding tunnels; the fourth is to break through Induced network passenger flow risk prevention and control technology for passengers-train-line network-information collaboration realizes the reconstruction of network passenger flow induction paths; fifthly, establishes "scenario-response" digital emergency response auxiliary decision-making technology to support joint prevention of major operational risks Joint control.

3.2.2 signal system
In terms of signaling system, Guangzhou Metro Lines 1, 2, and 8 adopt the Siemens FTGS train operation control system, and other lines adopt the CBTC train operation control system. Among them, the CBTC train operation control system used by Guangzhou Metro Line 7 is fully Chinese. The development and application of the MTC-I type CBTC train operation control system with independent intellectual property rights has broken the monopoly of foreign manufacturers on China's urban rail transit signaling systems for more than ten years.

3.3.1 The role of policies in overall development
In the early stages of Guangzhou's subway construction, it received support from many policies. In 1984, the Guangzhou Metro Preparatory Office drew on the experience of the Hong Kong Metro and proposed for the first time in the country the idea of "focusing on transportation, taking into account civil defense" and building subway lines on major transportation corridors, and received approval from relevant departments. This change in design thinking has brought Guangzhou subway construction into the fast lane. Subsequently, Guangzhou began to compile subway network planning and engineering plans. Through policy support, the initial planning of the Guangzhou Metro is to develop along the line based on the TOD model. This played a guiding role in development in the early stage.

The policy guidance of the "Recent Line Network Planning and Implementation Adjustment Plan in 2000" issued in 1997 proposed to give priority to the construction of Lines 3 and 4 that have been modified to go deep into the south to support urban development. On December 29, 2002, the first section of Line 2 was opened for trial operation. Since then, the "Ten" track network of Guangzhou Metro has been initially formed. At present, the construction of the basic framework of Guangzhou Metro in all directions has been initially completed. On this basis, due to the overall urban expansion of Guangzhou and the bid to host the 2010 Asian Games, the development of Guangzhou Metro has entered its peak period.

In August 2005, the National Development and Reform Commission officially approved the "Guangzhou Urban Rapid Rail Transit Recent Construction Plan" and agreed to build multiple lines between 2005 and 2010 with a total length of 127.6 kilometers.

In February 2009, the National Development and Reform Commission approved the "Guangzhou City Recent Construction Plan Adjustment" (2005-2012), agreeing to make appropriate adjustments to the construction tasks and goals of the July 2005 "Guangzhou City Rapid Rail Transit Recent Construction Plan".

In July 2012, the National Development and Reform Commission approved Guangzhou’s recent urban rail transit construction plan (2012-2018). Only the northern extension of Line 8 and Line 11 are urban lines, and the rest are suburban radial lines.

In order to meet the development needs of Guangfo City, in 2015, the National Development and Reform Commission approved the construction of the first phase adjustment section of Line 7. This line connects the two cities of Guangzhou and Foshan, further deepening the connection between the two cities.

On July 30, 2020, the "Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Intercity Railway Construction Plan" was approved by the National Development and Reform Commission. At this point, policy development will be more inclined to support the lines linking Guangzhou City and the Greater Bay Area, including the southern extension of the original Line 18 (Nansha to Zhongshan (Zhuhai) intercity, 79km), the northern extension of Line 18 (from Guangzhou east to Huadu-Tiangui intercity, 38km), the northern extension of Line 22 (intercity from Fangcun to Baiyun Airport, 39km) and the original Line 28 (intercity from Foshan via Guangzhou to Dongguan, 107km).

3.3.2 Changes in charging policy
According to Guangzhou’s public transportation fare discount adjustment plan, starting from September 1, 2023, the preferential policies for Guangzhou subways and buses will change. The following are the new preferential plans :

Ordinary passengers who spend more than 80 yuan but less than 200 yuan on the Guangzhou subway and buses in a calendar month will enjoy a 20% discount.

If it exceeds 200 yuan, you will enjoy a 50% discount.

This means more discounts for multiple rides, not only for the subway, but also for buses and water buses.

3.4 Market development
Due to the nature of subway operations, Guangzhou Metro does not have any commercial competitors. Therefore, the development of the market is mainly related to the growth of population. The larger the population base in Guangzhou, the higher the proportion of people choosing to travel by subway, and the broader the Guangzhou subway market will be. Through the S-curve, we can see that the current resident population in Guangzhou is still in the rising stage, so the market development of Guangzhou Metro will also be more advantageous in the future.


text:
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title: User:B.NIROSHAN/sandbox


text:
Transportation Deployment Casebook/2024/Lifecycle of Sydney Buses

The lifecycle of the Sydney bus network is about analysing the birthing, the growth, the maturity and potential decline of its service through data analytics and computer modelling. A time based approach is used to plot scale of its yearly patronage or track length over the network's entire lifetime. An S-curve model using the Logistics equation with three parameters forms the theoretical basis for this approach.

Background
The bus network in Sydney, Australia forms the second largest public mode of travel by patronage in the state of New South Wales, behind the train line service. According to Transport NSW, in 2023, 48.9% of single trips completed using the train/metro whereas 38.1% of trips were completed by the bus. As of 2015, it covers over 25,000 km of route length. It services the CBD and the suburban areas of the Greater Sydney region and operates under Opal Card scheme introduced in 2013 to 2014. The lifecycle of the bus network in Sydney spans over a 100 years and has changed based on the technology, and policy needs of the city. This lineage includes the early adoptions of the horse carriage omni buses to the modern engine powered articulated and double decked buses. It is estimated that the city has grown from 8.4 million yearly passengers in 1900 to over 308.8 million in 2014 as of latest figures by Bureau of Infrastructure, Transportation and Research Economics (BITRE), before the introduction of Opal.

The bus network is considered quite a mature mode of transport as it has saturated the region for 30 years without increasing its ridership significantly. Due to recent events such as Covid-19, the ridership has still been in recovery as it has only surpassed 200 million yearly passengers again in 2023 still below its pre-Covid numbers of 308.5 million in 2019.

History
The historical context of the bus network in Sydney puts the numbers into a more human perspective. The trends in the bus network tend to reflect saturation without much room for growth only maintenance.

Birthing
In the early 20th century, the tram network dominated the city followed by the ferry and heavy rail network. Since the modern car had not been motorised to take over the market just yet, the bus network was simply made of horse carriage omnibuses, that could hold not hold more than around 10-15 people before it was put under severe stress. This is in contrast to the early trams that were, at the time, just recently electrified, and could serve well over twice the capacity of a regular bus while having more connections and integration for faster travel time. Following the ending of the Great War, the buses too became motorised and received traction for their versatility and low maintenance and running costs. This was happening at the same as the modern personal car became a staple as production costs decreased, paved roads became more common and the urban landscape increased. This sparked large amount of privately owned bus companies to run as the transport had not been formally systematised by the state government. In 1927, over 500 buses that ran on a motor engine served the city while being unregulated. In contrast, the trams were widely adopted by the city and plans to control major modes of public transport was an important opportunity to seize.

In 1930, the New South Wales government intervened the bus network operations by limiting its freedoms to open new routes and more services through taxation and legislation. The Transport Act of 1931 passed to stifle the competition as its private owners could pay the high costs that the government enforced. A condensed timeline from BITRE shows that the bus service was still in its infancy but it was gaining popularity as the technology continued to accelerate especially post Second World War.

Growth
The comparison and competition with the tram system continued through the 40s and 50s as the popularity of one mode sacrificed the patronage of the other. The exception occurred in the middle of World War Two where integration of the two services was used to save running costs for buses and trams, which proved important as this became a bigger problem later on and was experienced across the globe. After the war, the buses were upgraded and received further funding as the idea of a wide spread bus urban public transport (UPT) mode became more popular. Similarly to the trends overseas, like in the U.S.A., car adoption with decrease in fuel price, stronger and lighter metals meant that the government could look into cheaper options that could gain capital. BITRE shows one perspective how attractive it would have been for petrol or diesel owned vehicles as their real price compared to 2011-12.

From the beginning of WW II until the end 1939 - 1945), it saw an increase in yearly ridership by nearly 100 million people from 65.8 to 159.8 million. This can be thought of as the inflexion point of highest rise in the mode's lifecycle. From 1946 all the way to end of the 70s, the bus saw a steadier rise in popularity as the tram network was virtually phased out in favour of the light capacity UPT that could now reach greater distances and was more versatile and flexible in times of need. In 1969, bus patronage reached a maximum yearly patronage of over 328.1 million, which is the first true peak of the mode and the sign of maturity and saturation over the upcoming decade.

Maturity
Despite the evolution of the bus taking over the tram system and becoming dominant the dominant UPT in the 70s and 80s, the numbers show a stagnation in the service as it was saturated and had reached most of the regions in the Greater Sydney region. Again, it followed similar paths to Australian cities such as Melbourne as it stagnated its development due to filling most of its areas with bus links. However, Melbourne had a resurgence that is up to dispute based on boundary conditions of city limits as pointed by the BITRE analysis. As such, the data is not 100% conclusive as even the bureau agrees with through its inclusion of different accuracy classifications for its 'UPT Bus' figures in Sydney.

Decline
Excluding Covid due to its external impacts on the wide transport network across the globe, Sydney bus system has stayed relatively consistent in terms of patronage numbers despite rising city population and possible demand for greater amount of bus services.

As of 2020, the network is 5 times the size that of 1925 and with more suburban and outer Sydney buses that travel longer distances. However, with rise of suburban sprawl, cars have become dominant mode of transport for most residents and trains have gained more patronage becoming leading mode transport in 2023.

Thus, bus network has reached an equilibrium in terms of its usage, or it is not utilised as has been argued in recent media and government pieces that debate efficacy of the system.

Methodology
For the projection to occur, the logistic S-curve is a sensible approach to assess the state of the bus network or any mode of transport or moving of goods. The unique aspect of being able to project a peak instead of an infinite rise like in an exponential rise give it more realistic use scenarios. However, it has to be noted that this logistic curve does not account for lag as is more evident in this mode of transport as it has not significantly decreased in its use but has also not found a resurgence or a second rise. The following equation sets the foundation for the predicted projection of the network vs the actual figures.

$$S(t) = S_m/\left(1+e^ {-b ( t - t_i )}\right) $$

 * S(t) = given yearly passenger value at a given year
 * Sm = maximum predicted level
 * b = a coefficient representing the slope from predicted saturation and actual value at given time.
 * t = time in years
 * ti = inflection time

The b coefficient is represents a lot of challenge as the slope repesents the natural log of the different cases where the actual value is compared against the difference between the actual and predicted saturation value.

$$x(t) = \ln\left(\cfrac{S(t)}{(K - S(t))}\right)

$$

For this data set, 114 years or points are chosen and the b is the slope in between them. The intercept is also calculated. This forms a straight line with an intercept which can be compared against real data. The R squared value (RSQ) is modelled in Excel to evaluate its effectiveness in realising the logistic S-curve. It is not only an approximation in terms of the method as it does not account for deviations or sudden falls or rises.
 * x(t) = a point in time
 * K = chosen predicted saturation max passenger value.

Results
For this example, total 18 guesses were made for possible peak ranging from K = 330 - 500 million yearly patrons with a positive increment of 10 million.

The biggest RSQ was chosen out of the 18 calculations. The range between smallest and biggest number was 0.033967. This suggests that it is not conclusive what the maximum number could be and that it could range anywhere from 330 - 500 million without much difference. However, the maximum number was 360 million patrons. The graph visualises the logistic S-curve and how it generally follows the trend of the rise and peak of the Sydney buses. The extrapolation is not shown to reach 360 million passengers which is predicted to happen in 2027. It also shows the inability to account for the stagnation in the numbers its sharp climb happening during 40-70s not accounted. This might be because of the WW II dip that slowed down progress and the war efforts being the main capital investment for the government, with the addition of restrictions and rations. The table of results is listed below:


text:
User talk:Gajunez

Welcome!
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text:
Transportation Deployment Casebook/2024/Suzhou Metro

What is Metro?
A metro is a train system that runs underground or above ground in big cities to help people move around fast.

Background: Suzhou City and Its Metro
Suzhou, a Chinese city housing 10 million residents, ranks as a significant metropolis. Over the past half-century, the city has seen remarkable growth, transforming from a town with limited touristic appeal to a global award winner in urban planning.

Suzhou stands as a major industrial hub, holding the second-highest count of factories in China, including those manufacturing iron, steel, textiles, electronics, and computers.

The city’s robust growth has also fueled the service sector, with tourism being a notable contributor, adding 150,000 Yuan to the city’s revenues in 2013.

Due to its proximity to Shanghai, a city with a rising demand for premium services, Suzhou has turned into a magnet for foreign investment. Public transportation, epitomized by the Suzhou Metro, is a critical component of these services.

The inception of the Suzhou Metro occurred in 2007 when the local government decided to address the transportation needs of its citizens, leading to the metro’s construction.

The operational lines of Suzhou Metro, namely lines 1, 2, and 4, were initiated in 2007, 2009, and 2010 respectively, becoming fully functional in 2012, 2013, and 2017. At present, these lines traverse a cumulative 120 kilometers across their 93 stations. There are prospective plans to double this coverage to 240 kilometers by the end of the decade.

Overall development
In 1996, Suzhou City began to study the construction of rail transit [1].

On December 28, 2003, the foundation of the Jinji Lake test section project of Suzhou Rail Transit Line 1 was laid, which was the first rail transit project in Suzhou [2].

On December 26, 2007, the construction of Suzhou Rail Transit Line 1 started [3].

On April 2, 2008, the logo of Suzhou Rail Transit was determined [4].

On December 25, 2009, the construction of Suzhou Rail Transit Line 2 started [5].

On January 12, 2012, Suzhou Rail Transit Line 1 began trial operation [6]. On April 28, Suzhou Rail Transit Line 1 opened for trial operation [7]. On September 27, the construction of Suzhou Rail Transit Line 2 extension, Suzhou Rail Transit Line 4 and branch line started [8].

On December 28, 2013, Suzhou Rail Transit Line 2 opened for trial operation [5].

On December 16, 2014, the construction of Suzhou Rail Transit Line 3 started [9].

On June 28, 2016, the construction of Suzhou Rail Transit Line 5 started [10]. On September 24, Suzhou Rail Transit Line 2 extension opened for trial operation [11]. On December 7, Suzhou Rail Transit Line 4 and branch line began trial operation [12].

On April 15, 2017, Suzhou Rail Transit Line 4 and branch line opened for trial operation [13].

On November 27, 2018, the construction of Suzhou Rail Transit Line 6 and Suzhou Rail Transit S1 Line started [14].

On August 18, 2019, Suzhou Rail Transit Line 3 began trial operation [15]. On September 30, the construction of Suzhou Rail Transit Line 8 started [16]. On December 25, Suzhou Rail Transit Line 3 opened for initial operation, and Suzhou Rail Transit Line 7 started construction [17].

On February 7, 2021, Suzhou Rail Transit Line 5 began trial operation. On June 29, Suzhou Rail Transit Line 5 opened for initial operation.

On May 6, 2022, the construction of Suzhou Rail Transit Line 2 extension, Suzhou Rail Transit Line 4 extension, and Suzhou Rail Transit Line 7 extension started. From November 11, Suzhou Rail Transit Line 5 opened the cab, becoming the first fully automatic operation line in Jiangsu Province to open the cab. In December, Suzhou Rail Transit Group Co., Ltd. held a special consultation and demonstration meeting, suggesting that the "S1 Line" be renamed as "Line 11".

Signal System
Suzhou Metro employs the Fourth Generation FAO Signal System, commonly known as the unmanned driving system. Compared to the third-generation system, the fourth-generation system offers higher automation and reliability. It enables automatic train operation, automatic stopping, passenger embarkation and disembarkation detection, and automatic departure. Additionally, a failure in a single system module does not impact the overall system operation.

Suzhou Metro utilizes an advanced train control system provided by Siemens, known as the Train Guard MT Communication Based Train Control (CBTC) system, along with a free propagation radio WLAN system, Sicas ECC electronic interlocking system, and AzS axle counters for its signaling and communications. This setup ensures efficient and safe operation of the metro lines [18].

Typical Cases
As part of Suzhou Metro Line 6, Hanqingqiao Station is considered a pioneer in digital transformation. It has introduced a range of intelligent passenger service equipment, including smart service terminals, dual-eye fare gates, intelligent customer service robots, and smart guidance screens. These devices enhance passenger convenience and intelligence during their journeys [19]. Including:

 * Smart Service Terminals: Passengers can directly voice their needs for ticket purchase, recharge, and issuing exit tickets at these terminals, which will automatically execute the corresponding actions.
 * Dual-Eye Fare Gates: Using visual technology, these gates make logical judgments for passage and intelligent person recognition, improving safety and reliability.
 * Smart Guidance Screens: Combining electronic media with traditional directional lightboxes, these screens display operational information within the station and enhance station management flexibility.

Policy in Birthing Phase
Policies have played an important role in the birthing phase of the Suzhou Metro, providing guidance for its expansion and operation. Government approvals and support were critical to initiate the construction phase and expand the network. For example, construction of Line 1 began in 2007 and was put into operation in 2012. This was followed by the construction of Lines 2 and 3, each with specific timelines and targets, thus connecting districts and increasing mobility in the city. The government has also introduced a succession of fare and ticketing policies, including discounts and other benefits for users.

Market Development
Suzhou rail transit has been in operation for 10 years, and has opened and operated 5 lines with a total mileage of 210 kilometers, transporting more than 2.2 billion passengers.

The 5 rail transit lines that have been opened in Suzhou cover an area of about 336 square kilometers and a population of 2,754,500 people in Suzhou. The average daily passenger flow has grown from 100,000 to 1,200,000, with the highest reaching 1,910,000 in a single day, and the proportion of rail transit in public transportation travel has exceeded 50%.

In 2022, Suzhou Rail Transit Group completed engineering investment of 20.5 billion yuan, exceeding the annual plan by 5%.

Among them, Line 6 completed an annual investment of 7.08 billion yuan, Lines 7 and 8 completed a total annual investment of 7.85 billion yuan, Line 11 completed an annual investment of 5.31 billion yuan, and the project of extending Lines 2, 4 and 7 completed an investment of 253 million yuan.

Data Collection and Methodology
The life cycle can be modelled by an S-curve which is used to display data over some time. S-curves (status vs. time) allow us to determine the periods of birthing, growth, and maturity. Here, it is assumed that the data used for modelling takes on a logistic shape to seek a curve that best fits the data.

In the current context, to analyze the life cycle of Suzhou Metro, the operated kilometers by Suzhou Metro are considered as the status and the consequent years as time to plot the S-curve. The required data was then collected from the annual reports published by Suzhou Rail Transit over the years from 2012 to 2022.

The life-cycle model of Suzhou Metro can be represented using the following equation:

S(t) = Smax/[1+exp(-b(t-ti)]

Where:

 * S(t) is the status measure,  (Passenger-km traveled).
 * t is time (usually in years).
 * ti is the inflection time (year in which 1/2 Smax is achieved).
 * Smax is saturation status level. In this model, I used the maximum passenger volume.
 * b is a coefficient to be estimated.

I fit the data using least squares to estimate the values of b and ti.

Results and Interpretations
To plot the S-curve and the forecasted model, I obtained the data from Suzhou Rail Transit 2022 Social Responsibility Report which was published by Suzhou Rail Transit Group Co Ltd. The parameters and the model derived from the regression analysis on the above data are as follows:

 * Final Market Size (Smax) = 33344.
 * Slope (b) = 0.777.
 * Inflection Time (ti) = 2015.47.
 * R2 = 0.924.


text:
User talk:Zwan0776

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User talk:Vdal0617

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title: User talk:Vdal0617


text:
Transportation Deployment Casebook/2024/Ningpo Metro

Metro
After the London Underground, the first metro railway, came into service in 1863, many of the world's major cities have constructed their own underground systems. In 2015, nearly 160 cities around the world had metro systems, forty per cent of which were built in the 21st century.

Urban transport in Ningpo
As one of the most populated and developed cities in Chekiang Province, Ningpo, with its permanent population of nearly 10 million (2023), attaches great importance to the system of urban transport. Currently, Ningpo has a relatively convenient and mature urban transport system, including bus and metro networks. According to "2022 China Urban Transport Report" released by Baidu Maps, the average walking distance for public transport trips in Ningpo was 791m, the walking distance between the two ends of the connection was 728m, and the walking distance between metro and bus interchange was 330m. These statistics are ranked in the top ten in the 100 main cities of China, which means that when people use public transport modes to travel in Ningpo, they are able to transfer easily in most cases and do not need to walk long distances.

Overview of Ningpo Metro
The first metro system in China was the Peking Subway, which was approved in 1965 and began operation in 1969. In 2019, four decades after the first metro system opened in Peking, China has 37 cities with metro systems totalling 5,180.6 kilometres.

The metro was firstly proposed in 2003 by the government. The construction of Line 1 started in June 2009, and was put into operation in 2014. By 2022, Ningpo Rail Transit already has five lines in operation with a total length of about 180 km.

The trains used in the Ningbo Metro system are all CRRC Zhuzhou Locomotive designed Type B metro trains. The body is made of aluminium alloy, has a crash cushioning design and uses LED lighting to reduce energy consumption. The latest trains on Line 5 have Fully-Automatic Unattended Train Operation (UTO) capability.

Beginning
Since 2003, Ningpo had accomplished a series of plans of rail transit, mainly the metro, and submitted the plan of construction to the state authorities in 2005. In 2006, Ningpo's rail transit construction plan was reviewed and feasibly evaluated in terms of the programme and technical standards. According to the initial plan, the two lines would be completed by 2015, with a total length of 72.1 kilometres and 45 stations.

In 2014, the first phase of Line 1, the construction of which began in 2009, became operational, while the second phase began in 2012 and was completed four years later. Construction of the first phase of Line 2, which forms a cross with Line 1, began at the end of 2010, and the 28.5km line connects to the airport, opening in 2015.

Development
In 2011, Ningpo put forward the second round of rail transit construction plan, planning to complete the second phase of Line 2 and build Line 3, Line 4 and the first phase of Line 5 between 2013 and 2020, forming a transport network covering six major urban areas of the city. What is noteworthy in the second round of rail transport construction is the change in the finance source, with the municipal government signing an agreement with the financial themes (local governments) under the jurisdiction of Ningpo, whereby the municipal government takes the lead, and the local government also contributes funds to participate in the construction at the same time. Under the plan, by 2020, a rail network with a total length of nearly 250 kilometres would be in operation.

By the end of 2021, when the first phase of Line 5 was commissioned, the target for the second round of construction had been reached, and the city had a total of 183 kilometres of rail transit.

Currently, the Ningpo rail transit system is under construction according to the third phase of the programme. The third round was approved by the State Council in December 2020. The plan, which covers the period from 2021 to 2026, includes Lines 6, 7, 8, and the extension of two already existing lines, Line 1 and Line 4, with a total length of 106.5 kilometres and a planned investment of RMB 87.59 billion.

Market
Funding for the construction of the Ningpo Metro came mainly from the government's public coffers, with the municipal government contributing assets in the early stages and the local government providing a portion of the funding from the second round of construction onwards. In view of the background of greater pressure on government finances, the city government has also asked the relevant authorities to make use of market financing in addition to playing the role of the government's public finances.

Advantage
The five lines of the 180-kilometre-long Ningpo Metro basically cover the city's central urban area and connect business districts, train stations, airports and university towns, which to a large extent facilitates people's travel and eases traffic pressure.

In terms of promoting tourism, Ningpo Metro not only makes it easier for tourists to travel to various tourist attractions, but the metro itself, as a cultural symbol of the city, can also arouse tourists' interest and love for the city through the metro Logo, which symbolises the city's culture, and the cultural decorations in the metro and metro stations.

Data collection
Annual passenger volume from 2015 to 2022 (The first line was launched in May 2014, so this year's data will not be included in the analysis) is obtained from the website of China Association Metro, where the association publishes the annual reports: An S-curve can be used to model the life cycle of Ningpo Metro. A three-parameter logistic function is used:

$$S(t) = Smax/[1+exp(-b(t-ti)]$$

where:

 * S(t) is the status measure,
 * t is time (in years),
 * ti is the inflection time (year in which 1/2 Smax is achieved),
 * Smax is saturation status level,
 * b is a coefficient

 * R² = 0.8432


text:
User talk:John Gordon Reid

Welcome!
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Transportation Deployment Casebook/2024/Ferry service in Sydney

Overview and Characteristics
A ferry is a vessel commonly employed for transporting passengers and/or vehicles over a body of water. They come in a range of sizes and serve various purposes, from compact boats shuttling passengers across brief distances to expansive ships ferrying both passengers and vehicles over extended routes. Information about ferries and their role in public transportation systems in waterside cities and islands is provided. Connections between distant locations, like those across bodies of water such as the Mediterranean Sea, are often referred to as ferry services, with some accommodating vehicles.

It is believed that early humans utilised logs or other floating objects to traverse bodies of water, which is essentially the concept behind a ferry. Ferries have been utilised in various countries with waterways, and despite advancements in other modes of transportation, ferries have continued to operate in many countries for over two centuries.

According to historical records, the Juliana, established by John Stevens, is considered the first steam-powered ferry. It began operating between New York and Hoboken, New Jersey in 1811, challenging Livingston's monopoly in the area.

According to technology, one kind of vessel that is propelled by steam is the steamship, which is also referred to as a steamer at times. These vessels are often able to travel across seas and are propelled by steam engines that use paddlewheels or propellers to power their propulsion.

Advantages of Ferry
Steamships were less reliant on wind patterns. Even when propelled by sail, shipping has always had an inherent advantage due to the comparatively effortless manoeuvrability of a large-diameter vessel across the water.

Ferry Market in the world
Ferries operate on several routes worldwide, totalling hundreds of options. Europe has a high concentration of ferry services, particularly in two major markets: Northern Europe and the Baltic region, as well as across the Mediterranean. Greece's domestic ferry business, with its extensive transportation network connecting several islands, is among the biggest in the world. Japan relies heavily on ferries for transportation. The primary ferry market in North America is located along the Pacific border between the United States and Canada. Ferry operations in South America and Africa are quite restricted. There is ferry traffic in the Red Sea. The Philippines in Asia have significant ferry traffic due to their ferry-friendly archipelago. The ferry sector in Indonesia saw significant expansion initially, but has faced setbacks due to intense competition from budget airlines. Hong Kong and Singapore are significant markets for high-speed ferries. In China, there is a growing presence of modern ferries in the Bohai Sea.

Before the invention of the ferry
Paddlewheels were often used as the primary method of propulsion on these early ships. It was an efficient method of moving forward under perfect circumstances, but had significant disadvantages in other situations. The paddle-wheel functioned optimally at a certain depth, but any change in the ship's depth due to extra weight caused the paddle wheel to dive further, resulting in a significant decline in performance.

Invention of ferry (Screw propulsion)
The crucial advancement that enabled ocean-going steamers to be practical was the transition from using paddle-wheels to using screw-propellers for propulsion. Steamships gained popularity rapidly due to the propeller's steady efficiency regardless of operating depth. Due to its lower size and bulk and total submersion, it was less susceptible to harm. The cylinders of an engine powering a paddle steamer are located below the shaft, which is above the waterline. The first screw propeller was installed on an early steam engine built by James Watt of Scotland at his Birmingham factory. This engine was a hydrodynamic screw, and Watt is generally acknowledged as having invented the technology.

Early market development
The inadequate public transportation system in Sydney was a common gripe even back then. Despite plans for a four- or five-hour journey, the boat ride from Sydney to Parramatta often took as long as twelve hours, and in one documented case, it took just less than fourteen.

Port Jackson's deepwater harbour enabled Sydney to quickly establish itself as the primary seaport in the south-west Pacific area. As the colony expanded and the people migrated to the north, west, and south, coastal shipping emerged to provide the city with food and raw materials for its industries, as well as facilitate transhipment to other regions.

Suburbs like Balmain, Pyrmont, and Mortlake sprung up around the waterfront industry. These were located in the western suburbs of Sydney. Roughly 80% of Sydneysiders lived within a few minutes' walk of Sydney Harbour until the 1880s.

For the busiest times, Woolloomooloo Bay had 11 spaces, four of which were part of the wharf. Its main purpose was to let Australia's wool products leave the country.

The role of policy
There was a need that boats be waterproof and have four oars so that anyone may lend a hand to the boatmen "if they pleased" when the government drafted laws in 1803. Additionally, the mast and sail had to be carried by the boats. This situation persisted until 1831. This government intervention eventually became the foundation of boat safety in the future The significance of water transport was important. The port and the rivers that flowed into it were early epicentres of activity, with private companies stepping up to the plate despite governmental regulations and limited resources. The role of the government in regulating transportation has persisted right up to the current day. Competition, however, did start to grow between government and privately operated transportation as well.

Birth (1831-1876)
Sydney's early colonisation by Europeans gave rise to the Sydney Harbour ferry service. Agricultural settlements along the Parramatta River were serviced by slow and irregular boats that ran from Sydney to Parramatta. The river was utilised by people, mail, and shops prior to the opening of the Sydney-Parramatta rail connection in 1855.

Ferry services continued to be vital for transportation along the Parramatta River even after the Sydney-Parramatta railway arrived in 1855 since they primarily serviced towns south of the harbour.

In order to sustain commerce, the Rose Hill Packet, dubbed the "first ferry," is established and serves as a bridge between Sydney Cove and the agricultural community of Parramatta. Round-trip travel on this ship required a week.

The first regularly scheduled cross-harbour rowboat in Sydney is run by former prisoner Billy Blue in the 1830s, from Dawes Point to Blues Point. When the oceangoing steamer Sophia Jane reaches Sydney in 1831, it is sometimes used for coastal commerce and towing to Newcastle on the Parramatta River.

In 1833, an Australian Conveyance firm was established. With a 12-horsepower (8.9-kW) engine, the Surprise was the first paddle steamer ever constructed in Australia, and it started providing regular trips to Parramatta in 1834. Boatmen used to use the poorly maintained route to Parramatta at that period.

As the tourist industry grows, Henry Gilbert Smith charters Brothers in 1855 to operate the first regularly scheduled service between Sydney and Manly.

Growth (1876-1914)
The New Era and Birkenhead ferries were run by Thomas Henley in the 1890s, and the Balmain-Johnstons Bay region had a ferry boat boom around that time. Population growth also played a significant role in the growth of the ferry industry. Between 1851 and 1891, the population of Metropolitan Sydney surged from around 54,000 to 96,000 and 383,000, respectively. Also rising from 28% in 1851 to 34% in 1891 was Sydney's population share in New South Wales overall. During this time, the growth of the ferry business was influenced by both governmental and private factors. In terms of the private sector, it was in charge of providing ferry services and was essential to the development of the ferry sector. Improvements in the Balmain region were brought about by the large-scale engineering and ship repair activities that Thomas Sutcliffe Mort and Captain Rowntree started in Mort Bay. Employment prospects in the ferry industry were brought about by the migration of people into this region.
 * The growth of Sydney's ferry services:
 * The roles of the private and public sectors in the growth of the ferry industry:

Regarding the public sector, steps were taken to guarantee that ferry services would be accessible and available as a means of public transit. When smooth transitions between trams and ferries were introduced, public transportation was used more often. Trams arrived at Erskine Street Wharf by the late 1880s, and the location became a centre for tram and ferry services that ran between Parramatta and Balmain.

Toll fees can be utilized for the development funds of facilities, but high tolls can lead to dissatisfaction among users. Fare regulation is often implemented by authorities to prevent monopolistic practices and provide passengers with economical prices. Between New South Wales and Victoria, the Wymah ferry traverses the Hume Weir, travelling half a km in thirteen minutes. Farm vehicles and stock trucks are transported over the Weir on behalf of the nearby agricultural community, and it is directly managed by the Roads and Traffic Authority (RTA). At first, ferry users had to pay tolls, which varied depending on whether they were walking, riding in a cart, or on horseback. But when the ferry service was jointly supported by the State Governments of Victoria and New South Wales, as well as the Towong Shire Council, the toll system was eliminated in 1908. The number of people using ferries rose after tolls were eliminated.
 * Policy for the growth of the ferry industry:

Furthermore, the development of ports is essential for the advancement of the ferry industry. When the bubonic plague approached Sydney in 1900, the City Council faced criticism for its role in the public health emergency and the rat issue that made it worse. The Rocks and Millers Point slums were renovated by the state government, which also assumed control of the City Council's health authority. The newly formed Sydney Harbour Trust was given administration of these areas. This policy and social atmosphere led to the redevelopment of the docks.

Maturity (1915-1946)
During the mature phase, the development entails the stabilization and establishment of the transportation mode or the scaling up of economies. Apart from the Manly ferry service and a few little launching services, Sydney Ferries Limited had a near-monopoly on the Sydney Harbour ferry services in the 1920s. It became the biggest ferry service in the world in terms of the number of vessels and utilisation rates in addition to purchasing the majority of other ferry companies and their assets.

The highest capacity ferries on Sydney Harbour, Kuttabul and Koompartoo, were put into operation by Sydney Ferries Limited in response to the increasing demand for cross-harbour ferry services to Milsons Point. Sydney Ferries met a historically high demand for cross-harbour services during the duration of the 1920s.

Sydney Ferries Limited, which held a monopoly, faced competition from other modes of transportation. They stopped providing cross-Parramatta River services beyond Gladesville in 1928 as a result of competition from railways and roadways.
 * Competition market:

The opening of the Sydney Harbour Bridge took place on March 19, 1932. As a direct consequence of this, the number of passengers travelling every year dropped from 40 million to 14 million. The Milsons Point location was the only one where the Sydney Ferry service was available. Within the first two weeks after the bridge was opened, the vehicle ferry services that were formerly offered between Dawes Point and Blues Point, as well as between Bennelong Point and Milsons Point, were furthermore terminated.

The Manly was known for its limited width, which made ferry manoeuvres difficult and time-consuming to perform. In 1922, the first double-ended screw steam ferry, known as the Manly (II), was developed in order to solve this issue further. Located in Balmain, New South Wales, it was constructed by Young, Son & Fletcher. The voyage to Manly was completed in a record time of 22 minutes, which has not been exceeded by conventional ferries yet. This record was achieved in 1922.
 * Attempts to adapt to the mode-changing markets:

The Lady Chelmsford was changed from steam power to diesel propulsion in order to modernise its fleet in conjunction with the introduction of diesel engines meant for ferries. By virtue of its two-stroke, five-cylinder engine, the Gardner diesel was capable of producing 190 horsepower (141 kW) and achieving a speed of 10.3 knots. The conversion of the other four "Lady Class" ferries, as well as Karingal and Karabah, took place in the 1930s. This was due to the fact that ferry firms were typically unable to buy new ships during the decades after the Bridge.

During this period, new services were introduced that went beyond simple transportation methods, offering features previously unseen at the time. In 1929, the Viceroy of India ordered the construction of ships that introduced a new degree of luxury and speed to the service experience. The first Peninsular and Orient Steam Navigation Company (P&O) ships to include indoor swimming pools were these particular vessels. The propulsion system for all three vessels consisted of enormous electric motors that were driven by turbo-electric steam turbines. As far as design, popularity, and service were concerned, the 'Strath' liners were superior than the Viceroy of India. They possessed the same degree of luxury and speed as the Viceroy of India, which was able to finish its journey from Britain to Bombay without any disruptions.
 * Re-invention:

Decline (1947-1975)
Since 1946, the Sydney ferry service began to decline. Ferry companies, lacking sufficient funds to purchase new vessels, planned to increase efficiency by converting ships to diesel propulsion. However, the conversion process incurred substantial costs, nearly leading the companies to bankruptcy. Attempts to persuade the government to take over the ferry service failed.

The failing Sydney Ferries Limited was acquired by the New South Wales government in 1951 for a sum of £25,000. The government purchased assets obtained by the Sydney Harbour Transport Commission, in addition to fifteen ferries and the Balmain plant. The Port Jackson & Manly Steamship Company had the operation and maintenance contract.

As a response to Sydney Ferries Limited's decision to cease ferry operations, the government enacted the Sydney Harbour Transport Act (No. 11 of 1951). Under this legislation, Sydney Harbour Transport was established as a company with members including the Under Secretary of the Treasury, the Commissioner for Government Transport, and the President of the Maritime Services Board in July 1951. Although the board controlled the facilities and the boats, it did not handle the recruitment of staff or other operational duties. This minimal engagement approach revealed the government's lack of expertise in specialized matters when, by 1974, it was compelled to assume direct control and management of almost all Sydney ferries.
 * Policy of government in 1951

Quantitative Analysis
Every transport system has a lifespan. This quantitative investigation quantitatively examined the full Sydney ferry life cycle. First comes growth, then maturity, then decline. Sydney ferry life-cycle phases are determined by yearly patronage statistics. The data comes from the Bureau of Infrastructure and Transport Research Economics (1900–2013) and New South Whale Government Annual Reports (2013–2023) . However, due to limited access to data on passenger usage in the 1800s, analysis was conducted starting from the 1900s.

Utilising the observed data, a three-parameter logistic function was estimated. The accuracy of the function, which models passenger numbers, can be assessed by plotting it against the observed data.

 * The function of logistics is:

S(t) = Smax/[1+exp(-b(t-ti)],

S(t) = State Measurement (in units of individual passengers on board)

t = time (in years)，

t0 = inflection point time (the year in which half of S max is obtained)，

Smax = saturation level (maximum annual passenger capacity of U.S. airliner)，

b = the coefficient to be estimated.

 * Coefficient b was determined using single variable linear regression in a model of the form:

Y = bX + c

where:

Y=ln(Passengers/(Smax-Passengers))

X=Year

Parameters
To fit the model as closely as feasible (R-squared near to 1), several Smax were used for the tests, and the final Smax value was obtained by narrowing down the range one at a time from a large range of tests and a number of tests to identify the real Smax boundary.

1900-2022 (Total)
Figure 2 depicts the Sydney ferry passenger real data and predicted passenger data from 1900 to 2022. Although having data from 1830 would have provided a clearer life cycle, the analysis proceeded based on the available data. As shown in Figure 1, there are two peak points in the lifecycle of the ferry until 2022. The first peak occurred in 1931 with 45 million passengers, followed by a sharp decline in 1932 due to the opening of the Harbour Bridge. Following a period of decline after 1950 due to the increasing use of public transportation and private cars, there was a resurgence in the 1970s when the government took over ferry services, accompanied by investments. However, passenger numbers have since stabilized. The second peak drop occurred in 2020, with a drastic drop to 1 million passengers, attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2019. While there has been a recovery since passenger numbers have not surpassed those seen in the early 1900s. The regression results for the period from 1900 to 2022 yielded an R-square of 0.468, indicating low fitness of the regression model, and a standard deviation of 5.6, suggesting significant short-term fluctuations in passenger numbers. Therefore, the analysis proceeded by dividing the data into segments.

1900-1914 (Growth)

Figure 3 depicts the ferry passenger real data and predicts passenger data from 1900 to 1914. The positive value of "b" indicates a positive slope, and the R-square value has significantly increased to 0.636 compared to the previous total graph (1900 to 2022). The standard error has also decreased significantly to 2.6. While there are differences between the curve graphs of the predicted and actual data, the trend direction can still be discerned, and overall improvement is observed compared to the data for the entire period (Figure 1). Given the historical context, ferry services in Sydney in the early 1900s remained crucial public transportation amid rapid population growth, as indicated by the data portraying a phase of growth.

1915-1946 (Maturity)

Figure 4 illustrates the ferry passenger data and predicted passenger data from 1915 to 1946. The value of "b" is -0.026, indicating a negative slope, and the R-square value has sharply declined to 0.265, indicating a significant decrease in the fitness of the regression model. The standard error has also increased significantly to 4.7. In 1931, ferry usage peaked at 520,000 passengers, but in 1932, with the opening of the Harbour Bridge, ferry usage plummeted to 200,000 passengers. While there was some recovery until 1946, considering the negative value of "b" during this period, it can be inferred that this was a phase of maturity, marked by reaching the peak followed by a low-growth phase.

1947-1975 (Decline)
Figure 5 illustrates the ferry passenger data and predicted passenger data from 1946 to 1975. The value of "b" is -0.025, indicating a negative slope, and the R-square value has increased again to 0.65, indicating an improvement in the fitness of the regression model. The standard error has also significantly decreased to 1.58. From the late 1940s on, many ferry services were either mobilized for the war effort, reduced, or suspended due to the difficulties of the Depression and the War. Despite attempts to transition to diesel engines in the 1950s and the introduction of premium services like the Manly III, which significantly reduced travel time, demand struggled to recover. In the 1960s, services to Neutral Bay, Cremorne, and Mosman experienced modest growth alongside harbor housing developments in the area, leading to a slight increase in passenger demand. Despite efficiency improvements through the introduction of new technologies and fast premium services, ferry demand decreased from 1946 to 1975. This period can be considered a phase of decline.

1976-present (Re-growth)

Figure 6 depicts the ferry passenger data and predicted passenger data from 1976 to 1990. The value of "b" has shifted back to positive at 0.052, and the R-square value has significantly increased to 0.88, making it the most accurate regression model among all. The standard error has also decreased substantially to 0.938, indicating a close match between the graphs.

During the 1980s, the inaugural Great Ferry Race was held as part of the Festival of Sydney, becoming an annual event since then, now held on Australia Day. Additionally, the introduction of the new "Freshwater-class" Manly ferries, the largest ferries to run on the harbor, took place during this period. This period can be viewed as a phase of resurgence, marked by government organizational changes, new events, and the introduction of modernized ferries.

1991-2022 (Stability)
Figure 7 illustrates the ferry passenger data and predicted passenger data from 1991 to 2022. The value of "b" has shifted back to negative at 0.025, and the R-square value has significantly decreased to 0.05, making it the lowest among all regression models. The standard error, however, was the lowest at 0.68, despite the low R-square value. This discrepancy can be attributed to the sharp decline in 2020 due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The demand for ferries experienced a drastic decline due to the effects of the pandemic, with a gradual recovery in demand observed after 2022. However, the demand has stabilized at a consistent level with slight fluctuations, indicating a phase of stability and a minor decline post-pandemic.

Conclusion
Figure 8 illustrates the phase of the lifecycle of Sydney ferries obtained through regression analysis, evaluating the accuracy of actual versus predicted data through regression analysis. In some cases, analyzing the entire duration resulted in a significant decrease in the R-square value. However, segmenting the data over different periods helped improve this. One limitation was the inability to include the "birth" phase due to restricted access to Sydney ferry data. If more data becomes available in the future, it will be necessary to revisit the analysis and include this phase.


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User talk:Emil9989

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User talk:Minjun Song

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