text:
Transportation Deployment Casebook/2023/Shenzhen

Technological Characteristics
Metros are exclusive, high-density, high-capacity urban rail systems covering various underground and above-ground rights-of-way in urban areas; most of their routes are underground and are highly automated with small headways; they have a high degree of travel time reliability and make frequent stops over short distances.

The metro has three main technical characteristics of speed, comfort and safety：

Speediness
Vehicles have high operating speeds, high starting and braking accelerations, most use high platforms, short metro stopping times, rapid and convenient boarding and alighting of passengers, and easy interchanges, thus enabling passengers to reach their destinations more quickly and shortening travel times.

Comfort
The vehicles and stations of the metro are generally equipped with air-conditioning, guidance devices, automatic ticketing devices and other equipment that directly serve passengers, so urban rail transit has better riding conditions and its comfort is better than that of public trams and buses.

Safety
As the metro runs on special tracks, there are no level crossings, it is not interfered with by other means of transport and has advanced communication signal equipment, so traffic accidents rarely occur.

Advantages

 * Land saving: As land in urban areas of metropolitan cities is generally expensive, placing the railway underground can save ground space and allow the ground to be used for other purposes.
 * Noise reduction: By locating the railway underground, noise from the ground can be reduced.
 * Disturbance reduction: as the route of the metro does not overlap or cross with other transport systems (e.g. surface roads), there will be less traffic disturbance and a lot of commuting time can be saved.
 * Energy saving: In the face of global warming, the metro is the best means of mass transit. The steady speed of the underground saves a lot of time in commuting and makes people happy to take it, replacing much of the energy consumed by driving.
 * Emission reduction: While ordinary cars use petrol or oil as an energy source, the metro uses electricity and does not pollute the environment as there are no exhaust emissions.

Main Markets
The metro's main market is the city's residents, commuters, students and tourists. In today's accelerating urbanisation, more and more people are choosing to live, work and study in the city. As an important part of the urban transport system, the metro is able to provide efficient, convenient and comfortable travel services to meet people's travel needs to complete long distance travel in a short period of time. In addition, the metro is also a very important means of transport for tourists, providing easy access to various attractions and commercial centres in the city. Most of the listed companies in China's metro industry are located in Eastern and Northern China, where the economy is more developed and therefore there is more demand for metro construction.

Pre-Metro Modes of Transportation
The world's first underground system was proposed for London by city lawyer Charles Pearson shortly after the opening of the Thames Tunnel in 1843 as part of a plan to improve the city, while the Chinese underground was first proposed by the Beijing Municipal Committee in 1953 and opened and ran on a trial basis in 1965. Before the advent of the metro, the most common means of transport in urban areas were horse-drawn carriages, cars or trams. However, these modes of transport tended to be slow and unreliable, especially during rush hour when traffic congestion was heavy, so the metro was mainly used as an alternative to the busy road traffic in the city. In modern times, with increasing urbanisation and population growth, road traffic in cities is becoming more and more congested, leading to increasing problems such as traffic accidents, traffic pollution and energy waste. In addition, the metro can replace long-distance passenger transport in some cities, such as road passenger transport and railway passenger transport. In some cities, the metro system is already relatively well established and can provide high-speed, convenient and safe urban passenger transport services, facilitating the travel of city residents and tourists.

The first stage: the era of steam locomotives (late 19th century to early 20th century)
The earliest metro systems were powered by steam locomotives, so coal and water supply pipes were laid in underground tunnels. Emissions and soot from steam locomotives polluted the air inside the metro and also caused sanitation and health problems.

The second stage: the era of electric drive (early 20th century to mid-20th century)
In 1900, the Paris Metro took the lead in adopting electric drive technology, replacing steam locomotives. The advantages of electric drive technology are high efficiency, environmental protection, and high safety, and it also provides better profit margins for metro operators.

The third stage: the era of subway signaling system (from the middle of the 20th century to the present)
The metro signal system is a vital part of the subway operation, which can ensure the safety of the train. After the 1950s, subway systems in various countries began to adopt electronic signal systems to replace manual operations. With the development of technology, the modern metro signal system has become very precise and complex, which can provide high safety and reliability for subway operation.

The fourth stage: the era of autonomous driving (21st century)
Autonomous driving technology is an important development trend of metro technology in recent years. Many new metro systems, especially in China, use self-driving technology. Autonomous driving technology can greatly improve the efficiency and safety of metro operations, while also reducing the dependence on human resources.

Early Market Development
Shenzhen is one of the most rapidly developing cities in China after the reform and opening up of the country, with rapid urbanisation starting in the 1980s. As urbanisation accelerated, Shenzhen's population and economy expanded rapidly, and the pressure on urban traffic increased. Traditional road transport could not meet the needs of the growing population and vehicles, so more efficient and faster transport modes were needed to relieve traffic congestion. In 1983, Liang Xiang, then secretary of the Shenzhen Municipal Party Committee and mayor, led a team to visit Singapore. Upon returning to Shenzhen, the government decided to leave a 30-metre green belt on each side of Shennan Avenue and to reserve 16 metres in the middle of the green belt in Shennan Avenue for the future construction of the city's light rail. In 1988, after only ten years of construction, Shenzhen proposed a passenger rail transport plan to build a light rail transport between Luohu Railway Station and the airport, with a total length of about 39 kilometres. It was not until 1992 that the State Council and the State Planning Commission approved the construction of light rail (metro) transport in Shenzhen.

Policy In the 'Birth Stage'
As early as 1984, the Municipal Government's "Shenzhen Special Economic Zone Master Plan (1985-2000)" pointed out that with the continuous growth of Shenzhen's traffic, it is necessary to build light rail (metro). This policy proposed the future development direction of Shenzhen Metro. In 1992, the Shenzhen Municipal Government established the Shenzhen Metro Planning Headquarters and began to plan and construct Shenzhen's metro system. Due to the small traffic volume of the light rail, it cannot meet the needs of Shenzhen's rapid development. Therefore, the government decided to move the light rail line underground and replace it with a metro line with a larger traffic volume, and re-study the feasibility and rail network planning. In 1994, the government formulated the "Shenzhen Passenger Rail Transit Network Master Plan", which was included in the "Shenzhen Urban Master Plan (1996-2010)" after review. The city's metro rail network consists of nine lines, three of which are existing commuter rail lines and six are underground and light rail lines to be built, with a total length of about 270 km. The 3 railways are Guangzhou-Shenzhen Railway, Pingnan Railway and Pingyan Railway, which have been transformed into commuter trains. This planning policy established the basic framework of the Shenzhen subway network.

Relevant Policy Issues
In December 1995, the General Office of the State Council of China issued the "Notice on Suspending the Approval of Urban Underground Rapid Rail Transit Projects", suspending the approval of rail transit projects in cities other than Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou. The Shenzhen Metro project was temporarily suspended.

Public Sector Contribution
In order to proceed with the construction of the Shenzhen Metro, the Shenzhen Government applied to the State Planning Commission in 1997 for a metro project, which was approved in May 1998. The project was then formally established and renamed as "Shenzhen Metro Phase I Project".The construction of Phase I started in 1998 and the feasibility study was approved by the State in 1999. The project lasted 6 years, and on December 28, 2004, the first phase of the project was put into trial operation. After the opening of the first phase of the subway project, the Shenzhen subway network did not continue to expand immediately. In 2003, the Shenzhen Municipal Planning Bureau formulated the "Shenzhen Urban Rail Transit Construction Plan (2005-2010)", proposing the second phase of the project, planning to add three new subway lines and extend two main lines. The construction plan was approved by the National Development and Reform Commission in March 2005 and completed in 2011. The completion of the second phase of the subway project provided a good transportation service guarantee for the 26th World University Games held in the same year, and improved the overall transportation capacity of Shenzhen. The proportion of rail transit in Shenzhen to public transportation has also risen from 6% before the opening to 29%. In 2010, the Shenzhen Municipal Planning and Land Resources Commission compiled the "Shenzhen Urban Rail Transit Short-term Construction Plan (2011-2016)", proposing a construction plan from 2011 to 2016 (the third phase of the Shenzhen Metro Project), and in April 2011 Monthly approval by the National Development and Reform Commission. The third phase of the Shenzhen Metro project includes the construction of Line 6, Line 7, Line 8, Line 9, and Line 11, a total of 5 lines. Since 2016, the operation of new lines has been opened successively.

Private Sector Contribution
In July 1998, Shenzhen Metro Co., Ltd. was registered and established. Shenzhen Metro has been exploring and innovating investment and financing models, including combinations of financial leases, medium-term notes, medium-term bonds, syndicated loans, and short-term loans, and has studied and planned listing financing. The first phase of the Shenzhen Metro project is only over 20 kilometers long. 70% of the construction funds come from government finances, and the remaining 30% comes from bank loans. The second phase of the project has a total length of 155 kilometers. The financing pressure is huge, and the proportion of government funding has been reduced to 40%. 60% will be self-financed by Shenzhen Metro Co., Ltd. From the third phase of the project, the Shenzhen Municipal Government will no longer provide direct capital investment. 50% of the total investment of Line 7 and Line 11 mainly comes from the income from rail transit coverage and land development along the line. Other funding came from bank loans in China. When the land income cannot meet the demand, the municipal financial funds will be invested. In addition to traditional bank loans, Shenzhen Metro has successively carried out a number of financing projects. For example, in 2011, Shenzhen Metro Group issued medium-term notes worth 10 billion yuan.

The Shenzhen government has been using the Build-Transfer (BT) model for metro construction on a large scale since the second phase of the project, that is, the successful bidder will advance the capital for construction first and the government will buy it back after three years. This is to ease the financial pressure and speed up the construction progress. Line 5, with a total investment of RMB 20.6 billion, is the world's largest BT mode urban rail transit project. Line 7, Line 9 and Line 11 of the three phases of the project are all built using the BT model, with the cost of the project within the BT scope reaching 48 billion yuan.

Line 12 and Line 13 are the first metro lines in Shenzhen to be operated under the Public-Private Partnership (PPP) model. The construction of the PPP project includes vehicles, signals, automatic ticketing systems, electromechanical equipment and track laying works. Through public tender, Shenzhen Metro Group and CEC formed a project company to operate Line 12, and MTR (Shenzhen) and China Railway Electrification Bureau formed a project company to operate Line 13. The two project companies are responsible for the whole process of managing the investment and construction, operation management and maintenance, asset renewal and additional investment of the project.

Mature Stage of Shenzhen Metro Development
In 2016, the second phase of the Shenzhen Metro project was completed and opened for operation one after another. The increase and expansion of lines means that the development of Shenzhen Metro has officially entered a mature stage. In order to adapt to the ever-changing market, competition conditions and policy value models, Shenzhen Metro has made the following attempts:

Continuously Expand the Metro Line Network
Shenzhen Metro was mainly oriented to the city's central business district and residential areas in the early days of its establishment. With the continuous expansion and development of the city, Shenzhen Metro has gradually expanded to the suburbs and surrounding cities of the city. For example, Shenzhen Metro Line 4 extends to Longgang District, and Shenzhen Metro Line 9 connects Shenzhen city center and the airport. Through continuous expansion of metro lines, Shenzhen Metro can better meet the travel needs of citizens and at the same time improve its competitive advantage in the urban transportation market.

Adopt Innovative Fare and Service Strategies
The Shenzhen Metro has been introducing innovative fare and service strategies to improve its competitiveness. For example, the Shenzhen Metro has introduced a "Metro + Bus" joint ticket, which allows people to switch between the metro and the bus easily. In addition, Shenzhen Metro has introduced different types of tickets and concessions, such as student tickets, senior citizen tickets and holiday discounts, to attract more people to use the metro and increase its market share.

Promote Smart and Green Travel
Shenzhen Metro continues to promote smart and green travel to adapt to market and policy changes. For example, the Shenzhen Metro has introduced intelligent payment methods such as mobile phone scanning code payment to facilitate citizens to purchase tickets. In addition, Shenzhen Metro also vigorously promotes the concept of green travel, encouraging citizens to use public transportation and bicycles to travel, so as to reduce the impact of car use on the environment.

Future Prospects of Shenzhen Metro Development
The current latest Shenzhen Metro line network planning is the "Shenzhen Rail Transit Line Network Planning (2016-2035)" issued by the Shenzhen Municipal Planning and Land Resources Commission in 2017. It is estimated that there will be a total of 33 urban rail lines (No. 1-32 Line and the branch line of Line 6), with a total length of 1,265 kilometers, including 8 urban express lines and 24 normal speed lines. In order to better meet people's needs for subways in the future, Shenzhen Metro has a long way to go, and there are many areas for improvement:

 * Further expand the metro network: Although Shenzhen's metro network is well developed, as the city continues to expand, the metro network needs to be further expanded in order to better serve citizens and tourists.

 * Improve the convenience and comfort of facilities: More convenience facilities need to be provided in the metro stations, such as more vending machines and more seats, as well as improving the comfort of the carriages, such as better ventilation systems and more comfortable seats.

 * Improve service quality: Metro staff need to provide more efficient and friendly services, such as helping passengers solve problems and providing necessary information.

 * Improve security measures: The safety measures of the metro need to be further enhanced, such as more surveillance cameras and more police officers, to ensure the safety of passengers.Shenzhen Metro network map.jpg

Quantitative Analysis
Based on the relevant data provided by the Shenzhen Bureau of Statistics, the annual passenger volume of the Shenzhen Metro from 2005 to 2022 was obtained and these data were fitted and analysed to determine the three stages of the development: birth, growth and mature. The three-parameter function fitted to the data is:

$$S(t)=\frac{K}{1+exp(-b(t-t_i))} $$

Where:

 * $$S(t)$$ is the status measure (e.g. Passenger-km traveled)
 * $$t$$ is time (years)
 * $$t_i$$ is the inflection time (year in which$$1/2 K$$ is achieved)
 * $$K$$ is the saturation status level
 * $$b$$ is a coefficient

Due to the limited time available for the data used, estimation using Ordinary Least Squares Regression is required for K and b. The coefficients were estimated using the following formula:

$$Y=bX+c$$

Where:

$$Y=\ln(Passengers/(K-Passengers))$$

$$X=Year$$

The Shenzhen Metro officially opened to traffic in December 2004, so the data is collected from 2005. The predicted results of the growth stage of the development of Shenzhen Metro are very consistent with the actual situation. Shenzhen Metro entered the mature stage of development in 2016, which coincides with the inflection point time; in 2020, due to the epidemic, the annual passenger traffic will drop sharply, but it will recover in 2021 the following year Peak, annual passenger traffic shows signs of steady decline from 2022. Since the Shenzhen Metro has not been developed for a long time, there is no obvious recession period.

Conclusion
The development of the metro in China has not taken long compared to Western countries. The completion of Beijing Metro Line 1 in 1969 marked the official introduction of metro technology in China. At that time, China's metro construction cycle was long and slow due to multiple factors such as the international situation, technical reserves and talent conditions. It was not until the 21st century that China's economy opened up further to the outside world, greatly stimulating economic growth and laying the economic foundation for metro construction, when Shenzhen opened its metro at the end of 2004 in order to meet the travel needs of the society, and after more than ten years of development, the Shenzhen Metro has now entered a mature stage of development. During this period, Shenzhen Metro was built through the BT (Build-Transfer) model and PPP (Public-Private Partnership) model, and payment methods such as code payment and bank card swipe payment were continuously improved for metro tickets. In August 2022, Shenzhen released the fifth phase of its urban rail project plan. It is planned that the metro network will cover areas far away from the city and areas with little metro coverage to improve public access to rail travel. It is believed that the Shenzhen Metro will be developed more and more in the future.


text:
Transportation Deployment Casebook/2023/Shenzhen Metro

Technological Characteristics
Metros are exclusive, high-density, high-capacity urban rail systems covering various underground and above-ground rights-of-way in urban areas ; most of their routes are underground and are highly automated with small headways; they have a high degree of travel time reliability and make frequent stops over short distances.

The metro has three main technical characteristics of speed, comfort and safety：

Speediness
Vehicles have high operating speeds, high starting and braking accelerations, most use high platforms, short metro stopping times, rapid and convenient boarding and alighting of passengers, and easy interchanges, thus enabling passengers to reach their destinations more quickly and shortening travel times.

Comfort
The vehicles and stations of the metro are generally equipped with air-conditioning, guidance devices, automatic ticketing devices and other equipment that directly serve passengers, so urban rail transit has better riding conditions and its comfort is better than that of public trams and buses.

Safety
As the metro runs on special tracks, there are no level crossings, it is not interfered with by other means of transport and has advanced communication signal equipment, so traffic accidents rarely occur.

Advantages

 * Land saving: As land in urban areas of metropolitan cities is generally expensive, placing the railway underground can save ground space and allow the ground to be used for other purposes.
 * Noise reduction: By locating the railway underground, noise from the ground can be reduced.
 * Disturbance reduction: As the route of the metro does not overlap or cross with other transport systems (e.g. surface roads), there will be less traffic disturbance and a lot of commuting time can be saved.
 * Energy saving: In the face of global warming, the metro is the best means of mass transit. The steady speed of the underground saves a lot of time in commuting and makes people happy to take it, replacing much of the energy consumed by driving.
 * Emission reduction: While ordinary cars use petrol or oil as an energy source, the metro uses electricity and does not pollute the environment as there are no exhaust emissions.

Main Markets
The metro's main market is the city's residents, commuters, students and tourists. In today's accelerating urbanisation, more and more people are choosing to live, work and study in the city. As an important part of the urban transport system, the metro is able to provide efficient, convenient and comfortable travel services to meet people's travel needs to complete long distance travel in a short period of time. In addition, the metro is also a very important means of transport for tourists, providing easy access to various attractions and commercial centres in the city. Most of the listed companies in China's metro industry are located in Eastern and Northern China, where the economy is more developed and therefore there is more demand for metro construction.

Pre-Metro Modes of Transportation
The world's first underground system was proposed for London by city lawyer Charles Pearson shortly after the opening of the Thames Tunnel in 1843 as part of a plan to improve the city, while the Chinese underground was first proposed by the Beijing Municipal Committee in 1953 and opened and ran on a trial basis in 1965. Before the advent of the metro, the most common means of transport in urban areas were horse-drawn carriages, cars or trams. However, these modes of transport tended to be slow and unreliable, especially during rush hour when traffic congestion was heavy, so the metro was mainly used as an alternative to the busy road traffic in the city. In modern times, with increasing urbanisation and population growth, road traffic in cities is becoming more and more congested, leading to increasing problems such as traffic accidents, traffic pollution and energy waste. In addition, the metro can replace long-distance passenger transport in some cities, such as road passenger transport and railway passenger transport. In some cities, the metro system is already relatively well established and can provide high-speed, convenient and safe urban passenger transport services, facilitating the travel of city residents and tourists.

The first stage: the era of steam locomotives (late 19th century to early 20th century)
The earliest metro systems were powered by steam locomotives, so coal and water supply pipes were laid in underground tunnels. Emissions and soot from steam locomotives polluted the air inside the metro and also caused sanitation and health problems.

The second stage: the era of electric drive (early 20th century to mid-20th century)
In 1900, the Paris Metro took the lead in adopting electric drive technology, replacing steam locomotives. The advantages of electric drive technology are high efficiency, environmental protection, and high safety, and it also provides better profit margins for metro operators.

The third stage: the era of metro signaling system (from the middle of the 20th century to the present)
The metro signal system is a vital part of the metro operation, which can ensure the safety of the train. After the 1950s, subway systems in various countries began to adopt electronic signal systems to replace manual operations. With the development of technology, the modern metro signal system has become very precise and complex, which can provide high safety and reliability for metro operation.

The fourth stage: the era of autonomous driving (21st century)
Autonomous driving technology is an important development trend of metro technology in recent years. Many new metro systems, especially in China, use self-driving technology. Autonomous driving technology can greatly improve the efficiency and safety of metro operations, while also reducing the dependence on human resources.

Early Market Development
Shenzhen is one of the most rapidly developing cities in China after the reform and opening up of the country, with rapid urbanisation starting in the 1980s. As urbanisation accelerated, Shenzhen's population and economy expanded rapidly, and the pressure on urban traffic increased. Traditional road transport could not meet the needs of the growing population and vehicles, so more efficient and faster transport modes were needed to relieve traffic congestion. In 1983, Liang Xiang, then secretary of the Shenzhen Municipal Party Committee and mayor, led a team to visit Singapore. Upon returning to Shenzhen, the government decided to leave a 30-metre green belt on each side of Shennan Avenue and to reserve 16 metres in the middle of the green belt in Shennan Avenue for the future construction of the city's light rail. In 1988, after only ten years of construction, Shenzhen proposed a passenger rail transport plan to build a light rail transport between Luohu Railway Station and the airport, with a total length of about 39 kilometres. It was not until 1992 that the State Council and the State Planning Commission approved the construction of light rail (metro) transport in Shenzhen.

Policy In the 'Birth Stage'
As early as 1984, the Municipal Government's "Shenzhen Special Economic Zone Master Plan (1985-2000)" pointed out that with the continuous growth of Shenzhen's traffic, it is necessary to build light rail (metro). This policy proposed the future development direction of Shenzhen Metro. In 1992, the Shenzhen Municipal Government established the Shenzhen Metro Planning Headquarters and began to plan and construct Shenzhen's metro system. Due to the small traffic volume of the light rail, it cannot meet the needs of Shenzhen's rapid development. Therefore, the government decided to move the light rail line underground and replace it with a metro line with a larger traffic volume, and re-study the feasibility and rail network planning. In 1994, the government formulated the "Shenzhen Passenger Rail Transit Network Master Plan", which was included in the "Shenzhen Urban Master Plan (1996-2010)" after review. The city's metro rail network consists of nine lines, three of which are existing commuter rail lines and six are underground and light rail lines to be built, with a total length of about 270 km. Three railways are Guangzhou-Shenzhen Railway, Pingnan Railway and Pingyan Railway, which have been transformed into commuter trains. This planning policy established the basic framework of the Shenzhen subway network.

Relevant Policy Issues
In December 1995, the General Office of the State Council of China issued the "Notice on Suspending the Approval of Urban Underground Rapid Rail Transit Projects", suspending the approval of rail transit projects in cities other than Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou. The Shenzhen Metro project was temporarily suspended.

Public Sector Contribution
In order to proceed with the construction of the Shenzhen Metro, the Shenzhen Government applied to the State Planning Commission in 1997 for a metro project, which was approved in May 1998. The project was then formally established and renamed as "Shenzhen Metro Phase I Project".The construction of Phase I started in 1998 and the feasibility study was approved by the State in 1999. The project lasted 6 years, and on December 28, 2004, the first phase of the project was put into trial operation. After the opening of the first phase of the subway project, the Shenzhen subway network did not continue to expand immediately. In 2003, the Shenzhen Municipal Planning Bureau formulated the "Shenzhen Urban Rail Transit Construction Plan (2005-2010)", proposing the second phase of the project, planning to add three new subway lines and extend two main lines. The construction plan was approved by the National Development and Reform Commission in March 2005 and completed in 2011. The completion of the second phase of the subway project provided a good transportation service guarantee for the 26th World University Games held in the same year, and improved the overall transportation capacity of Shenzhen. The proportion of rail transit in Shenzhen to public transportation has also risen from 6% before the opening to 29%. In 2010, the Shenzhen Municipal Planning and Land Resources Commission compiled the "Shenzhen Urban Rail Transit Short-term Construction Plan (2011-2016)", proposing a construction plan from 2011 to 2016 (the third phase of the Shenzhen Metro Project), and in April 2011 Monthly approval by the National Development and Reform Commission. The third phase of the Shenzhen Metro project includes the construction of Line 6, Line 7, Line 8, Line 9, and Line 11, a total of 5 lines. Since 2016, the operation of new lines has been opened successively.

Private Sector Contribution
In July 1998, Shenzhen Metro Co., Ltd. was registered and established. Shenzhen Metro has been exploring and innovating investment and financing models, including combinations of financial leases, medium-term notes, medium-term bonds, syndicated loans, and short-term loans, and has studied and planned listing financing. The first phase of the Shenzhen Metro project is only over 20 kilometers long. 70% of the construction funds come from government finances, and the remaining 30% comes from bank loans. The second phase of the project has a total length of 155 kilometers. The financing pressure is huge, and the proportion of government funding has been reduced to 40%. 60% will be self-financed by Shenzhen Metro Co., Ltd. From the third phase of the project, the Shenzhen Municipal Government will no longer provide direct capital investment. 50% of the total investment of Line 7 and Line 11 mainly comes from the rail transit coverage and land development income along the line. Other funding came from bank loans in China. When the land income cannot meet the demand, the municipal financial funds will be invested. In addition to traditional bank loans, Shenzhen Metro has successively carried out a number of financing projects. For example, in 2011, Shenzhen Metro Group issued medium-term notes worth 10 billion yuan.

The Shenzhen government has been using the Build-Transfer (BT) model for metro construction on a large scale since the second phase of the project, that is, the successful bidder will advance the capital for construction first and the government will buy it back after three years. This is to ease the financial pressure and speed up construction progress. Line 5, with a total investment of RMB 20.6 billion, is the world's largest BT mode urban rail transit project. Line 7, Line 9 and Line 11 of the three phases of the project are all built using the BT model, with the cost of the project within the BT scope reaching 48 billion yuan.

Line 12 and Line 13 are the first metro lines in Shenzhen to be operated under the Public-Private Partnership (PPP) model. The construction of the PPP project includes vehicles, signals, automatic ticketing systems, electromechanical equipment and track laying works. Through public tender, Shenzhen Metro Group and CEC formed a project company to operate Line 12, and MTR (Shenzhen) and China Railway Electrification Bureau formed a project company to operate Line 13. The two project companies are responsible for the whole process of managing the investment and construction, operation management and maintenance, asset renewal and additional investment of the project.

Mature Stage of Shenzhen Metro Development
In 2016, the second phase of the Shenzhen Metro project was completed and opened for operation one after another. The increase and expansion of lines means that the development of Shenzhen Metro has officially entered a mature stage. In order to adapt to the ever-changing market, competition conditions and policy value models, Shenzhen Metro has made the following attempts:

Continuously Expand the Metro Line Network
Shenzhen Metro was mainly oriented to the city's central business district and residential areas in the early days of its establishment. With the continuous expansion and development of the city, Shenzhen Metro has gradually expanded to the suburbs and surrounding cities of the city. For example, Shenzhen Metro Line 4 extends to Longgang District, and Shenzhen Metro Line 9 connects Shenzhen city center and the airport. Through continuous expansion of metro lines, Shenzhen Metro can better meet the travel needs of citizens and at the same time improve its competitive advantage in the urban transportation market.

Adopt Innovative Fare and Service Strategies
The Shenzhen Metro has been introducing innovative fare and service strategies to improve its competitiveness. For example, Shenzhen Metro has introduced a "Metro + Bus" joint ticket, which allows people to switch between the metro and the bus easily. In addition, Shenzhen Metro has introduced different types of tickets and concessions, such as student tickets, senior citizen tickets and holiday discounts, to attract more people to use the metro and increase its market share.

Promote Smart and Green Travel
Shenzhen Metro continues to promote smart and green travel to adapt to market and policy changes. For example, the Shenzhen Metro has introduced intelligent payment methods such as mobile phone scanning code payment to facilitate citizens to purchase tickets. In addition, Shenzhen Metro also vigorously promotes the concept of green travel, encouraging citizens to use public transportation and bicycles to travel, so as to reduce the impact of car use on the environment.

Future Prospects of Shenzhen Metro Development
The current latest Shenzhen Metro line network planning is the "Shenzhen Rail Transit Line Network Planning (2016-2035)" issued by the Shenzhen Municipal Planning and Land Resources Commission in 2017. It is estimated that there will be a total of 33 urban rail lines (No. 1-32 Line and the branch line of Line 6), with a total length of 1,265 kilometers, including 8 urban express lines and 24 normal speed lines. In order to better meet people's needs for subways in the future, Shenzhen Metro has a long way to go, and there are many areas for improvement:

 * Further expand the metro network: Although Shenzhen's metro network is well developed, as the city continues to expand, the metro network needs to be further expanded in order to better serve citizens and tourists.

 * Improve the convenience and comfort of facilities: More convenience facilities need to be provided in metro stations, such as more vending machines and more seats, as well as improving the comfort of the carriages, such as better ventilation systems and more comfortable seats.

 * Improve service quality: The metro staff need to provide more efficient and friendly services, such as helping passengers solve problems and providing necessary information.

 * Improve security measures: The safety measures of the metro need to be further enhanced, such as more surveillance cameras and more police officers, to ensure the safety of passengers.Shenzhen Metro network map.jpg

Quantitative Analysis
Based on the relevant data provided by the Shenzhen Bureau of Statistics, the annual passenger volume of the Shenzhen Metro from 2005 to 2022 was obtained and these data were fitted and analysed to determine the three stages of the development: birth, growth and mature. The three-parameter function fitted to the data is:

$$S(t)=\frac{K}{1+exp(-b(t-t_i))} $$

Where:

 * $$S(t)$$ is the status measure (e.g. Passengers)
 * $$t$$ is time (years)
 * $$t_i$$ is the inflection time (year in which$${1 \over 2 K}$$ is achieved)
 * $$K$$ is the saturation status level
 * $$b$$ is a coefficient

Due to the limited time available for the data used, estimation using Ordinary Least Squares Regression is required for K and b. The coefficients were estimated using the following formula:

$$Y=bX+c$$

Where:

$$Y=\ln(Passengers/(K-Passengers))$$

$$X=Year$$

The Shenzhen Metro officially opened to traffic in December 2004, so the data is collected from 2005. The predicted results of the growth stage of the development of Shenzhen Metro are very consistent with the actual situation. Shenzhen Metro entered the mature stage of development in 2016, which coincides with the inflection point time; in 2020, due to the epidemic, the annual passenger traffic will drop sharply, but it will recover in 2021 the following year Peak, annual passenger traffic shows signs of steady decline from 2022. Since the Shenzhen Metro has not been developed for a long time, there is no obvious recession period.

Conclusion
The development of the metro in China has not taken long compared to Western countries. The completion of Beijing Metro Line 1 in 1969 marked the official introduction of metro technology in China. At that time, China's metro construction cycle was long and slow due to multiple factors such as the international situation, technical reserves and talent conditions. It was not until the 21st century that China's economy opened up further to the outside world, greatly stimulating economic growth and laying the economic foundation for metro construction, when Shenzhen opened its metro at the end of 2004 in order to meet the travel needs of the society, and after more than ten years of development, the Shenzhen Metro has now entered a mature stage of development. During this period, Shenzhen Metro was built through the BT (Build-Transfer) model and PPP (Public-Private Partnership) model, and payment methods such as code payment and bank card swipe payment were continuously improved for metro tickets. In August 2022, Shenzhen released the fifth phase of its urban rail project plan. It is planned that the metro network will cover areas far away from the city and areas with little metro coverage to improve public access to rail travel. It is believed that the Shenzhen Metro will be developed more and more in the future.

license: Creative Commons - Attribution Share-Alike - https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/


text:
Transportation Deployment Casebook/2023/Glasgow

Introduction
Streetcars, specifically electric streetcars, are a form of public transportation that rose to prominence in cities around the world during the late 19th and early 20th century before falling victim to buses and the automobile.

In the case of Glasgow, electric streetcars ran on rails along city streets, sometimes with their own right of way and often mingling with other modes of transport. They were cheaper to build and operate compared to heavy rail, but were able to move larger numbers of people than carriages or cars. They were also considered to be more reliable than earlier modes due to their sturdier construction and comparative speed (Railway World). Importantly, electric streetcars were also considered much cleaner in terms of pollutants when compared to steam powered and horse drawn vehicles.

Streetcars were connected to electricity through overhead wiring or underground conduit power lines (Schmucki 2012). The streetcar vehicles included comfortable seating and interiors that were enclosed, protecting travellers from the outside weather (Schmucki 2012).

The main markets for streetcars included densely populated cities. The ability to move larger numbers of people on street level was attractive and multiple systems were constructed across Europe, Asia and the Americas.

Glasgow's transport system prior to the electric streetcar
Prior to the opening of the first electric streetcar line in Glasgow in 1898, passengers utilised an extensive network of horse drawn streetcars and buses when they couldn’t make trips by walking or cycling (Jones 2019). Glasgow opened its first horse drawn streetcar service in 1872, and the system experienced significant growth through subsequent years (Schmucki 2012). Relatively soon after this in 1898, the horse-drawn streetcar network began to be electrified with inefficient and slow streetcars slowly replaced by their electric counterparts (The Scotsman 2017).

The rapid growth of Glasgow and other British cities during the late 19th and early 20th century was driven by movements from rural areas into the urban centre and lower mortality rates (Brash 1971). Transportation improvements at the time, most notably the electric streetcar system, enabled and supported this shift towards city centres as they enabled people to move around more easily and quickly. This ease of movement led to the rapid expansion of the mode in the urban area and eventually outside of Glasgow’s city limits, helping to shape the city by influencing the location of new housing developments (Pooley & Turnbull 2000).

The technological genesis of the electric streetcar
Electric streetcars were crafted through the marrying of several different pieces of technology. The first notable technology was the precursor to electric streetcars, horse drawn streetcars; from this technology came the idea for carriages pulled upon rails on the street surface, it also provided streetcar vehicles that had been designed and refined for use on street rails. So similar were the first electric streetcar carriages to the horse drawn ones, that a number were converted for electric streetcar use for operation on the new system (Jones 2019).

The concept of utilising steel rails was in itself borrowed from the railways, though it had been adapted for city roads by sinking tracks to ensure they were flush with the road surface to avoid hindering pedestrians and motorcars (The Tramway and Railway World 1903).

Another notable technological advancement utilised for electric streetcars was electricity and its accompanying infrastructure, which over time had been rolled out through wiring, telegraph poles and substations (The Tramway and Railway World 1903). In the example of Glasgow, existing electric infrastructure for the Glasgow Subway system and the knowledge from use of this technological were important factors in the genesis of the Glasgow electric streetcar system (The Tramway and Railway World 1903).

The standard streetcar was designed and refined over time through four phases (Jones 2019). The initial streetcars used on the first line were not successful in operation due to challenges with derailments, they did not last long but the lessons learned were invaluable for the future phases of streetcars (Jones 2019). Further phases of streetcar design mainly sought to increase the comfort of the vehicles for passengers, including interior design improvements and enclosing parts of the vehicle from the weather (Jones 2019). Mino speed and suspension improvements also occurred over time.

Development and growth of the system
The initial market for electric streetcars was along existing horse-drawn streetcar lines, all of which had been established along routes with high densities radiating out of the city centre (Brash 1971). As each line was gradually replaced with electric streetcars, ridership boomed across the network due to the vastly improved service they provided. Improvements in speed also allowed an increase in headway meaning that more frequent services could be offered to meet demand (Brash 1971).

Concurrent with the replacement of the horse-drawn streetcar network, new lines were constructed spreading out from the urban centre into new and existing suburban areas. In some cases suburbs were constructed around extensions to streetcar lines (Pooley & Turnbull 2000).

Development of the Glasgow streetcar network was influenced and borrowed technologies that were implemented and proven by earlier tramways in Dublin and London (Brash 1971). These precedents along with the success of horse drawn streetcars were the foundation for introducing and developing streetcar technology in Glasgow.

Policy was influential in the development of the system, initially government policy banned the local municipal council from operating the first tramway lines; instead signing allowing a private company to operate the network for a 22 year period under a lease agreement (The Tramway and Railway World 1903). The company constructed extensions to the network and opened new lines during their lease period which witnessed significant patronage increases. Despite this success, the company was unable to extend their contract at the end of the lease and operations fell under municipal control until the final streetcar line closure in 1962 (The Tramway and Railway World 1903). This created a monopoly on streetcar travel in Glasgow that wasn’t present in other cities with systems that had competition between different operators.

Quantitative analysis of the network
The birthing period of the Glasgow electric streetcar system can be observed in Figure 1 from 1872-1912, where the network expanded exponentially. This growth was initially driven by replacement of existing horse-drawn streetcar lines and eventually through extensions to lines and opening new lines to cover service gaps (The Tramway and Railway World 1903).

Unsurprisingly, minimal extensions and improvements were made to the system during WW1 and in the post-war period except for repairs following bombings. Following 1923, network expansions were planned for the system to account for the massive post-war population increases that Glasgow was experiencing, which had placed greater demand on the streetcar network (Brash 1971).

In a positive virtuous cycle, as the city grew, the need for transport also grew exponentially (corroborated in Figure 2), along with the distances that people needed to travel in order to access employment that was mostly located in the city centre. Electric streetcars provided the perfect means for enabling the growth of cities whilst simultaneously increasing access and mobility factors, it revolutionised transport and shaped cities.

Network expansions continued for 15 years until 1938 by which point the network had reached its largest historical extant at 141 miles, making it one of the largest streetcar systems in the world (city monitor). Government interventions to support the streetcar system can be best observed during this period, which saw private bus services begin to compete with and impact streetcar service patronage and revenues (Pooley & Turnbull 2000). Interventions included reductions in streetcar fares and replacing ageing fleet members with modern tram cars (Pooley & Turnbull 2000). These policies were supplemented by an act of government that limited the operation of bus services within the centre of Glasgow and subsequent introduction of municipal run bus services to fill streetcar service gaps (Pooley & Turnbull 2000). These policies are considered successful when viewing Figure 3, which shows that patronage on tramways continued to capture a growing majority of trips taken up until World War II.

Unfortunately, track mileage data is difficult to find after 1938, but it is understood that the advent of World War II in 1939 scuttled any plans to continue growing the streetcar system and to fight competition with buses; it was in a sense the major catalyst for the decline of the Glasgow streetcar system (Brash 1971). It is likely that the system never experienced a maturity phase in the theoretical sense because services were immediately reduced in an effort to conserve energy during the wartime and to reflect a sudden drop in patronage.

The correlation between population growth and the streetcar system was analysed up until the end of the WWII and showed a very high r squared of 93.1 demonstrating the fact that in Glasgow, streetcar system and population growth were linked together during the growth period of the network.

Unlike many other Western cities at the time, Glasgow did not experience a post-war population boom, it experienced an overall decline as can be witnessed in Figure 2. As expected considering the linkages between demographics and the streetcar network, these trends were the death nell for any future plans to extend the streetcar network and eventually led to the closure of lines that were experiencing significant patronage decline. The final factor that accelerated the decline of Glasgow’s system was the rise of the automobile and propositions that buses were a good replacement to streetcars that were becoming more expensive to operate and maintain in the face of falling patronage (The Scotsman 2017). In the end, bus lines began replacing streetcar lines on an approximate like-for-like basis beginning from 1953 when a decision was made to cease replacing the ageing streetcar fleet (Jones 2019).


text:
Transportation Deployment Casebook/2022/Hong Kong

1.	The introduction of ferry

A ferry is a ship, boat, or amphibious vehicle used to carry passengers, sometimes vehicles and cargo, across water. Ferries are part of the public transportation system of many waterfront cities and islands. There are many stops for small ferries, such as in Venice, Italy, sometimes referred to as water buses or water cabs. Compared with bridges and tunnels, ferries advantage has a shorter construction period, which are less expensive to build, and can form transportation capacity more quickly. However, the bridges and tunnels are convenient and fast to pass, which is more conducive to increasing the transportation capacity of the whole line. Therefore, with the construction and development of bridges and tunnels, ferries will be gradually replaced in most cases. For example, the Channel Rail Tunnel, which was completed and opened in May 1994, replaced the Channel Rail and road ferries and connected the UK to the European continent. (Bian, 2009) There are widespread applications in Hong Kong, Mumbai, India, Russia and many other places around the world. The design of a ferry depends on the length of the route, the required passenger or vehicle capacity, the speed requirements and the water condition the vessel must cope with. Ferry technology uses propulsion systems which can typically powered by diesel engines; Navigation equipment needs to withstand the natural environment such as waves and wind, and ensure the safety of passengers and cargo; Automation systems can control parameters such as vessel movement, position and speed, thereby improving operational efficiency, reducing personnel requirements and increasing safety; Aids to navigation to ensure safe navigation, ferry vessels are usually equipped with a variety of aids, such as radar, GPS navigation, and communication equipment, to help the crew monitor the vessel's position and environment, as well as communicate with land and other vessels.

1)	The limitation of the ferry

Small boats, rafts, and canoes were the main modes of water transportation before the invention of the ferry. Larger boats, such as galleys and commerce ships, were available and mostly employed for long-distance travel rather than local transit. Land-based alternatives included horse-drawn carriages, wagons, and carts. The condition of the road infrastructure, which was inadequate and difficult to traverse these modes. This made it difficult and time-consuming to carry goods and people over land. At the same time, the development of steam power and advances in shipbuilding technology made it possible to build larger, more stable vessels that could more efficiently transport people and cargo through bodies of water. These factors, combined with the growing demand for transportation, have prompted interest in the development of ferries and other types of water-based transportation. In addition, the growth of tourism and leisure travel to coastal and island destinations has created a demand for reliable and efficient transportation options. This has led to the development of specialized vessels, such as passenger ferries and sightseeing boats, to meet the needs of travelers and tourists. Overall, the limitations of existing modes of transportation, coupled with the growing demand for faster and more efficient transportation, have prompted interest in the development of ferries and other types of water-based transportation that offer an innovative way to move goods and people across waters.

2)	The invention of the ferry

The invention of the ferry mode dates to ancient times, when humans first began using boats to transport people and goods through bodies of water. However, the modern ferry as we know it today originated in the 19th century, when advances in steam power and shipbuilding technology made it possible to build larger and more reliable vessels. (Bruzzone et al., 2012) The development of ferries required the integration of multiple expertise, including shipbuilding, steam engine design, navigation and safety systems. Shipbuilders were responsible for designing and building the ferry's hull, while steam engine designers were responsible for developing the propulsion system. Navigation specialists were required to design the route and ensure safe navigation, while safety specialists were responsible for developing systems to protect passengers and crew in the event of an emergency. In addition to hardware, software plays a crucial role in the development of ferry technology. Navigation tools, such as compasses and sextants, In the early days of ferry travel, several different types of vessels were used for transportation. These included sidewheelers, sternwheelers, and propeller boats. Each design had its own advantages and limitations, and the transformation from the original design changed in the face of early experience. For example, early sidewheelers were popular for their speed and maneuverability, but they were also prone to capsize in rough seas. This led to the development of the sternwheeler, which was more stable, but slower and less maneuverable. The invention of the ferry represents a combination of various technical expertise, including ship construction, navigation, propulsion systems, and communication technologies. The evolution of ferry technology demonstrates the continuous improvement of transportation systems throughout history.

2.	The Hong Kong ferry

As a part of China, Hong Kong has undergone great historical changes and has a pivotal position in the world. Hong Kong Ferry is one of the most important means of transportation in Hong Kong, mainly used to connect different areas of Hong Kong Island, Kowloon and the New Territories.

The most of Hong Kong's ferry services are provided by licenced ferry companies. As of January 1, 2020, there are 12 ferry operators in Hong Kong, operating a total of 7 inner-harbour routes and 14 outer-harbour routes (excluding transit ferries), providing ferry services to and from the outlying islands as well as inner-harbour routes. Two of the inner harbor routes are operated by the Star Ferry Company.

1)	Market development

The early development of Hong Kong's ferry market is closely related to the city's colonial history. In the mid-19th century, Hong Kong's population grew rapidly due to the influx of foreign traders and immigrants. The city's natural harbor made it an ideal location for maritime trade, and ferries played a vital role in connecting different parts of the city and facilitating commerce. Initially, the ferry market was dominated by small operators providing basic transportation services between different parts of Hong Kong Island and the mainland. These operators served a wide variety of customers, including traders, laborers, and residents. In the early stages of the ferry market's development, upgrading played an important role as operators competed to provide better services and attract more customers. This led to the introduction of larger and more comfortable vessels, improved safety features, and more frequent and reliable schedules. Operators have also developed more efficient ticketing and boarding systems to reduce wait times and increase passenger convenience. Functional requirements have also played a role in market development as operators have identified new market niches and expanded their services to meet emerging customer needs. For example, some operators have introduced night ferries to serve the growing entertainment industry, while others have developed specialized services for tourists and sightseers. As Hong Kong continues to grow and develop, the ferry market is becoming more competitive and larger operators are beginning to dominate the industry. However, the early history of the Hong Kong ferry market shows that functional enhancement and feature exploration played an important role in driving the market forward and meeting the changing needs of customers.

2)	Impact of the different policy i.	The birth period

During the birth of the ferry market in Hong Kong, policy played a critical role in shaping the industry and facilitating its development. Many of the policies implemented during this period borrowed from earlier ferry models, while others were innovated to suit the unique needs and challenges of Hong Kong. An example of a policy that borrowed from earlier models is the development of ferry routes and schedules. This is based on the experience of other ferry markets that have developed standardized routes and schedules to ensure consistent and reliable service. In Hong Kong, ferry operators work closely with the government to develop routes and schedules that meet the needs of different customers and markets. Another policy that draws on the precursor model is the development of safety regulations and standards. This is particularly important in Hong Kong, where the city's natural harbor and busy waterways pose significant safety challenges. The government works closely with ferry operators to develop and enforce safety regulations to help ensure the safety of passengers and crew. In addition to policies that build on previous models, the Hong Kong ferry market has innovated new policies specifically tailored to the local environment. For example, Government incentives have been developed to encourage the growth of night boats to service the expanding entertainment market. Policies have also been introduced to support the development of specialized tourism services such as sightseeing tours and cruises. Some policies were established in the early stages of the Hong Kong ferry market, such as the establishment of standardized routes and safety regulations. These policies became part of the industry's infrastructure and are critical to its continued growth and success. The government has implemented or approved other policies, such as fare and tariff setting. The government has played a key role in regulating fares to ensure that they are fair and reasonable for customers, while also allowing operators to generate sufficient revenue to maintain and improve their services. Overall, the policies pursued by the Hong Kong ferry market during its birth phase have been critical to its development and success. Many of these policies built on earlier models, while others innovated to adapt to the unique needs and challenges of the local environment. Some policies were embedded and became part of the industry's infrastructure, while others were imposed or approved by the government. Collectively, these policies have helped shape the industry and laid the foundation for its continued growth and evolution.

'''ii. The growth period'''

The development of the Hong Kong ferry model has been a complex process involving both public and private institutions. The policy environment has had a significant impact on the industry throughout this period. In the early stages of ferry market growth, the private sector dominated. As ferry operators invested in building larger, more modern vessels, introducing new services and routes, and competing aggressively to capture market share. This has helped drive innovation and improve the quality of service provided to customers. The public sector has also played a key role in the growth of the ferry market. The government has established a regulatory framework to ensure the safety and reliability of services and has worked with ferry operators to develop standardized routes and schedules. The government also played a role in setting fares and tariffs to ensure affordability and access to services for all customers. As there are more private shipping companies, they compete. The main issue that arose during this period was the need to balance the interests of ferry operators and customers. As the industry grows and competition intensifies, operators sometimes put profits ahead of service quality and customers can become extremely dissatisfied. Policymakers must develop policies that support the profitability of the industry while protecting the interests of customers in such situations. Another policy issue is the need to ensure the safety of passengers and staff. This is particularly important for Hong Kong, where the natural harbor and busy waterways pose significant safety challenges. Policymakers worked closely with ferry operators to develop and enforce safety regulations that would help reduce the risk of accidents and incidents. Overall, the development of Hong Kong ferries during the growth period has been shaped by a complex interplay between the public and private sectors. Policymakers have had to deal with a range of policy issues and challenges, while also responding to the changing needs and expectations of customers and operators. During this period, the policy environment has played a key role in shaping policy development, influencing the direction and content of policy and helping to support the continued growth and success of the industry.

'''iii. The mature period '''

During the maturity phase of the Hong Kong ferry market, the industry evolved to adapt to changing markets, competitive environments and policy values. This period was characterized by a series of experimentation with models and the challenges associated with lock-in and the need for reinvention. One of the major challenges during this period was adapting to changing market conditions, including changes in customer preferences, demographic trends, and economic factors. In response to these changes, ferry operators introduced new services and routes, upgraded their vessels, and improved the quality of customer service. For example, some operators have introduced high-speed ferries to cater to speed- and efficiency-conscious customers, while others have focused on developing more luxurious and personalized services for high-end customers. The competitive environment is also an important factor in the maturing phase of the ferry market. The industry faces increasing competition from other modes of transportation, such as buses, trains and automobiles. This required a focus on improving the speed, reliability and convenience of ferry services in order to remain competitive. Policy also played a role in the development of the ferry market during this period. Policymakers placed greater emphasis on sustainability and environmental protection, leading to the adoption of new technologies and practices to reduce the industry's carbon footprint. For example, some operators have begun to introduce hybrid or electric vessels to reduce their reliance on fossil fuels and improve their environmental performance. (Tsoi & Loo, 2021) However, the ferry industry's ability to adapt and transform itself was significantly limited during this period. Many of the policies, infrastructure and organizational structures established during the birth and growth phases of the market became entrenched and difficult to introduce significant changes. For example, the standardized routes and schedules established in the early stages of the industry are difficult to modify or replace, even as customer needs, and competitive conditions change. For these problems, adapting the ferry model to better serve the needs of today and tomorrow is also a way to innovate. One possibility is to focus on developing more sustainable and environmentally friendly services, such as introducing new low-emission vessels or exploring alternative fuels. Another opportunity is to use digital technology to improve the efficiency and convenience of ferry services, such as introducing mobile ticketing and real-time update services. Overall, the Hong Kong ferry market has reached a mature stage and due to the development of other modes of transport, a number of attempts are required to adapt to the changing market, competitive environment and policy values.

3)	Quantitative analysis

Since its establishment in 1968, according to the official data of Hong Kong Ferry Company. Due to the problem of the early historical development of Hong Kong ferries and the fact that there are many Hong Kong ferry companies, so the data is not accurate. The S-Curve fits the real data probably relevant to reality. According to historical books and records we can find the early development pattern of Hong Kong ferries, in the war era before 1960, the number of passengers taking ferries was chaotic and numerous, the number of Hong Kong ferry passengers in the infancy period was not much, but after 1960, Hong Kong developed rapidly, industrialization and modern equipment were complete, ferries as one of the important transportation modes to communicate between Hong Kong Island and Kowloon, the number of passengers also increased dramatically, in In the short decade of 1955-1965, the number of ferry rides increased by 100 million. The two decades between 1970 and 1990 were a period of growth for Hong Kong ferries, when social development stabilized, urban construction intensified rapidly, and the number of ferry riders was on the rise. After 1995, the development of Hong Kong ferries entered a mature stage, as ferry ride times were slow compared to car bridges, and other modes of transportation partially replaced the ferries. Ferry ridership begins partial decline.

3.	Conclusion

The development of transportation has been influenced by a combination of political, environmental, and technological factors. Although ferries are slow and with the completion of the Hong Kong Cross Harbour Tunnel and the development of road bridges, Hong Kong ferries have developed vigorously in modern times mainly as a means of tourism, with some commuting being an integral part of the journey as well. In Hong Kong, an important phenomenon is the continuous decline of ferry passenger traffic. There are two main reasons for this: Poor service levels and stronger competitors. New roads, bridges and tunnels serve buses and, to some extent, railroads. Firstly, there is no need to promote ferries in a free market environment; What’s more, ferries have the best safety record and ferries can only relieve some of the traffic congestion and demand for waterways, which is one of the characteristics of Hong Kong. (Ceder, 2006)

References

Bian, S. (2009). Encyclopedia of China / Encyclopedia of China. Zhongguo Da Bai Ke Quan Shu Chu Ban She.

Bruzzone, A., National Research Council (U.S.). Transportation Research Board, Transit Cooperative Research Program, United States. Federal Transit Administration, & Transit Development Corporation. (2012). Guidelines for ferry transportation services. Transportation Research Board.

Ceder, A. (Avi). (2006). Planning and Evaluation of Passenger Ferry Service in Hong Kong. Transportation, 33(2), 133–152. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11116-005-3047-1

Merritt Roe Smith. (2015). Harpers Ferry Armory and the New Technology. Cornell University Press. Publisher. (2005a, October 16). Hong Kong Ferries. Wikipedia.org; Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. https://zh.wikipedia.org/zh-my/%E9%A6%99%E6%B8%AF%E6%B8%A1%E8%BC%AA#/media/File:TSUI_WAH_323_Cheung_Chau_to_Aberdeen_27-06-2017.jpg

Publisher. (2005b, October 16). Hong Kong Ferry. Wikipedia.org; Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. https://zh.wikipedia.org/zh-my/%E9%A6%99%E6%B8%AF%E6%B8%A1%E8%BC%AA#/media/File:Hong_Kong_Inner_Harbour_Ferry_Service_Map.png

Tsoi, K. H., & Loo, B. P. Y. (2021). Cutting the loss: International benchmarking of a sustainable ferry business model. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 145, 167–188. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2021.01.007


text:
Transportation Deployment Casebook/2023/Melbourne

Overview and Technology
Streetcars are an early form of rail transportation which fundamentally involve the movement of people and goods along tracks laid on the street. A streetcar is usually comprised of a single carriage or car, although sometimes more. Modern day street cars use an electric motor powered by overhead wires, or a ground-level power supply which charges super-capacitors, however the earliest models were pulled by horse. Steam engines were also trialled in streetcars, and cable powered trams had a short era of popularity in the late 19th century, mainly due to their ability to overcome steep gradients. Modern trams have wheels which run along grooved tracks, sunken flush into the road surface and are almost exclusively located in cities.

Trams were one of the first modes of rapid mass transit, able to move large groups of people at regular frequent time intervals. This made them especially suited for linking inner city suburbs and connecting commuters to the central business district. Experimentation involving electric railways began with Thomas Davenport in 1835 around the same time steam trains were beginning to take off. Most of the first electric locomotives failed due to a lack of power which can be attributed to inefficient motors and heavy loads. Davenports motor included a small motor with a stator and rotor windings, powered by an electrochemical battery. The first full-sized locomotive was designed by Robert Davidson in 1837, and utilised a two-electromagnet stator and a three-salient pole rotor. Batteries were an issue with the initial development of streetcars, being bulky and non-reusable. Innovation of new electric motor technologies was required to prove the feasibility of electric streetcars, and that came in the form of electromechanical DC generators. Batteries were replaced with cheaper energy sources such as coal, and the reversibility principle heralded by Warner Siemens in 1867 allowed for the development of much more efficient electric motors.

Siemens also experimented with overhead bipolar wires, using them to power his track-less car, the Electromote in 1882 and soon-after a tramline near Berlin. Alternatively, a third rail could be placed on the ground between the other two to provide electricity, as in the case of the Giants Causeway Tramway in Northern Island. This tramway experimented with a high voltage between 290-360V which was reduced after electrocuting a cyclist. Voltage capacity needed to be increased to improve the capabilities of streetcars, however accidents like this ultimately highlight the need for safety policies such as the Rail Safety Act 2006 present in Victoria.

The ideal power source for electric streetcars was unclear throughout the 19th century. Batteries were tested in Paris for aesthetic reasons, and In Australia battery powered trams were trialled in Bendigo, but all proved unsuccessful. In 1884, an overhead catenary was developed and tested by J.C Henry allowing streetcars to operate at a higher voltage, and a year later Van Depoele invented a spring-loaded trolley pole to provide a firm connection to overhead wires in order to collect current. Innovations of motors with fixed brushes improved safety and efficiency, and the development of the Bow current collecter improved electrical contact with overhead wires. Ground-level power systems came later, and are used in many tram systems today around the world including the Sydney Light Rail.

They were more accessible than horse drawn carriages and also cheaper and less intrusive than heavy rail. and can easily be deployed to reach many areas. They also emit less emissions than buses and can hold more people. Historically, mainly used in cities or for steep hills.

Melbourne Prior to Trams
Prior to trams, the predominant modes of transportation in Melbourne included walking, horse drawn carriages and carriages and boats. The city is situated on the Yarra River adjacent to Port Phillip Bay, however with next to no canal network and the cost and processes involved in planning, constructing, procuring and operating heavy rail lines, an alternative mode of mass transportation to horse drawn carts was necessary. This was especially true because, similar to many other major cities at the time, population and industry was experiencing massive growth as a product of the industrial revolution. Road networks and tolls were established as early as the 1840’s, servicing docks in Port Melbourne just south of the central business district and along the Yarra river, however the rise of automobile transport was still a long way off at this point in history.

As steam powered trains were growing in popularity in England and the USA, Melbourne decided to introduce the technology for the first time in the mid 19th century. Trains changed the way freight was transported and trade was carried out, however constructing new lines is not a cheap or easy process as already mentioned. Despite this, the advantages of rail transport were well appreciated and there was interest in identifying other ways to achieve these benefit which led to the birth of horse drawn trams. Horse powered transports also had its limitations. These including the constant need for care required by the horses, only being able to travel if weather permitted, slightly bumpy rides with low maximum speeds and the difficulty tackling steep gradients.

Birth
What started as horse drawn streetcars in 1884 quickly progressed into a 75km network of cable cars, one of the largest in the world at the time. What made this possible was the lack of policy regarding attaining a right of way to lay tram tracks. Road owners could simply lay track wherever they desired unlike heavy rail, as there was no need to purchase land or construct transport corridors. Companies did still require government approval to construct tramlines, with acts such as the Melbourne Tramway & Omnibus Company Act which was passed in 1883 allowing the MTOC to operate cable car systems. As some lines were meant to be horse drawn, these were located on the edge of the system and the central system was cable operated. However the growing popularity of the electric trams resulted in the conversion of the cable car network into overhead wire powered trams from 1924 onwards. Cable cars were a market niche, as much of the rest of the world was rapidly converting to overhead wire or ground-supply powered trams.

The first electric tram opened in Melbourne in 1889, connecting Box Hill to Doncaster. The new Premier Thomas Bent saw he could benefit from the line and helped acquire the appropriate legislation. The 3.6km route was an initial success, but the expiry of the Union Electric Companies contract led to technical, legal and financial difficulties, ultimately shutting the tramway down in 1896, but not without its economic potential being realised.

A second attempt at establishing electric trams in Melbourne began with the opening of the St Kilda to Brighton tram in 1906 operated by Victoria Railways. This was followed by two lines opened by the North Melbourne Electric Tramway and Lighting Company between Flemington Bridge and Essendon and Saltwater River. The public was very supportive of this development. In 1919, VR opened a second line from Sandringham to Black rock.

Growth
These tramways kickstarted the industry in Melbourne, resulting the in creation of numerous individual tramway trusts who took responsibility for expanding, managing and operating Melbournes rapidly growing tram network in their respective localities. Early examples of these trusts include the Prahan & Malvern Tramway Trust, Hawthorn Tramway Trust, Melbourne Brunswick and Coburg Tramway Trust, and the Fitzroy Northcote and Preston Tramways Trust. These trusts secured acts which granted them the ability to build tramlines in their locality.

The Melbourne Metropolitan Tramway Board MMTB took over the cable car network in 1919. It was in this period that buses had started to become a popular mode of transport in other cities. However the consensus in Melbourne was that electric trams powered by overhead wires were the best way forward, hence the tram system was maintained. other factors that contributed to the growth of the electric tram network in Melbourne included the smaller rate of emissions compared to buses and cars, the wide patterned street layout of the city suburbs, the high financial risk of ripping up the network and the potential returns on investments in electric transport.

The last cable car ran until 1940, and the electric tram network grew profitably until the time of WWII, with its peak annual patronage of 294.1 million reached in 1945. The board upgraded fleet classes on multiple occasions to classes such as the W-class, to solve operational and maintenance problems.

Decline
Post WWII, many trams were replaced with buses. In Sydney, the extensive tram network which was once bigger than Melbournes, was entirely deconstructed to make way for this promising new technology. Melbournes annual tram passengers reduced steadily during this period to as low as 98.9 million in in 1980 with no tramline extensions in 20 years. Another factor influencing this decline was the increase in private automobiles. However buses never grew in popularity and the tram network remained in tact due to Union opposition against ripping it up, allowing the possibility for re-growth. .

Maturity
New Authority in the form of the MTA was formed in the early 1990’s, where a revitalisation of Melbournes public transport network was planned. Rail, bus and tram were integrated, with new technologies improving communications and reliability. Eventually, all rail was placed under one body, Public Transport Corporation (PTC) as a result of the Transport Act 1989 ,however they still faced financial and political difficulties, and it wasn’t until privatisation in 1999 when the tram network began to mature.

The network was split in two and sold to private companies, who also initially experienced financial difficulty and did not meet projected passenger growth. The government offered incentives and extra subsidies to keep the companies on board, but ultimately one pulled out. This lead to one company, Yarra Trams, taking control of the whole system in the early 2000’s. Contracts between state government and private operators meant the system was extended and modernised. More stops and rolling stock were added and patronage began to increase slowly but steadily. Around this time electronic ticketing systems were also introduced, in line with the Transport Regulations policy, with MyKi still being active today.

Public Transport Victoria (PTV) is the current statuary authority. Transport legislation including The Disability Discrimination Act has resulted in a focus on increasing accessibility to trams with the planned introduction of more low floor trams and level boarding stops. This is because studies showed that 70% of the disabled population only has access to 22% of accessible tram supply.

Today, Melbourne's tram network is the largest in the world, with over 250km of track, 24 routes and 200 million passengers per year (excluding covid impacted years). It is the second most used mode of transport in Melbourne and play's a large role in tourism. Incentives such as the free tram zone in the city draw tourists and encourage usage, and the network also plays a key role in transport to major domestic and international events such as the Australian Open, Australian Grand Prix and sporting matches at the Melbourne Park complex. Studies have found trams actually help reduce overall traffic congestion in Melbourne (despite some negative effects on traffic flow), adding to the list of benefits, and with the increasing focus on sustainability, there's a sure demand for trams in the future of Melbournes transport network.

Quantitative Analysis
All transport systems have a life cycle. This begins with the birthing stage, followed by growth, maturing and eventually decline. In this quantitative analysis, observed annual patronage data is used to determine the life-cycle stages of the Melbourne Tram network. The observed data is sourced from the Bureau of Infrastructure and Transport Research Economics (years 1900-2013) and from Victorian Government Annual Reports from 2013 to 2022.

Table 1: Observed patronage data - passengers per year in millions

S-curve Regression Model
The observed data was used to estimate a three-parameter logistic function. The function models passenger numbers and can be plotted against the observed data to determine its accuracy.

The logistic function is:

$$S(t)={Smax \over [1+\exp-b(t-t_i)]}$$

where:

 * S(t) is the status measure,  (e.g. Passenger-km traveled)
 * t is time (usually in years),
 * ti is the inflection time (year in which 1/2 Smax is achieved),
 * Smax is saturation status level, (Choose the maximum length of the streetcar system that you have recorded in the data).
 * b is a coefficient to be estimated.

Coefficient b was determined using single variable linear regression in a  model of the form:

Y = bX + c

where:

Y=ln(Passengers/(Smax-Passengers))

X=Year

Table 2: linear regression results

Complete lifespan
As illustrated by the two peaks in figure 1, the Melbourne electric tram system has undergone two growth and maturing stages in its life cycle to 2022. The first peak, represented by the orange dot at 294.1 million passengers in 1945, marked the end of the first maturing stage, the start of WWII and the beginning of the system's decline. The second peak is in 2019, the year before covid struck and the patronage declined once again. As both periods of decline were triggered by major world crisis, it can be argued that the system has never breached the growth phase. However the introduction of buses after the war contributed to the decline of tram usage in the mid-20th century, and the revitalisation in the late 20th, early 21st century exhibited much slower growth than the first growth phase in the early 20th century, plateauing out towards 2019 and showing signs of maturing.

Given the two distinct growth periods, the data was split at the year 1980, and seperate curves modelled for the years prior and after this date.

1900-1945
This period marks the rapid rise of trams in Melbourne. The birth of the system was the 1900's with the fasted period of growth occurring in 1916. The system began to mature in the 30's, reaching its peak in 1945 as seen in figure 2.

The modelled curve is a good fit, representative of actual life-cycle trends, with the exception of the outlying point in 1940. The low number of data entry points is the primary cause of this difference between the modelled and actual data plots. The RSQ value is 0.75, which could be better but is close enough to 1 given 294.1 was the maximum number of patrons the system reached, also making this the most accurate curve out of all the curves created.

1900-1980
Figure 3 displays the passenger numbers per year from birth to decline. The modelled curve is a relatively good fit. Despite not matching the rapid drop in tram patronage in the late 1940's, the downward orange curve generally heads in the same direction as the actual data.

From this graph it is clear that there was a decline in tram passengers between 1945 and 1980.

1980-2022
The period between 1980 and 2022 saw the revitalisation of the tram network. Although not as rapid as the initial growth period seen in figure 2, there is a gradual increase in passengers numbers, with the peak growth rate in 1987. The system appears to mature after 2010, and then declines rapidly due to covid. To make the curve fit better, the three data entries recorded during covid were removed and the regression done again. The results are in figure 5 below.

1980-2019
This curve fits slightly better than the curve in figure 4, with an RSQ value much closer to 1. The RSQ value does get higher as the Smax value increases, however an Smax value of 207 provided the best curve fit. It also moves the period of fastest growth to 1989, and the curve flattens out quicker, reaching the maturing stage just before 2010.

Conclusion
Table 3 displays the stages of the transport network life-cycle and the time period for each. Note that data affected by the Covid-19 pandemic after 2019 is not included.


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