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User talk:ArrowTarot

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title: User talk:ArrowTarot


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User:MorpheusKafka/US Immigration Law/Introduction

What is immigration law?
Although the word immigration itself refers to the movement of people into another country to live their permanently, the concept of immigration law is much broader. In the United States, immigration law concerns not only the regulation of who may take up permanent residence, but also questions such as the following:

 * what procedures must be followed for non-nationals to enter the country? how long may they stay?
 * who is allowed to work or study in the United States?
 * under what circumstances can the U.S. government force someone to depart from the country?
 * how can someone become a U.S. citizen, whether at birth or later in life?

 * what are the consequences of committing certain immigration violations?
 * what are green cards, visas, and other forms are immigration documentation?
 * how can an employer hire workers from another country, and what are their obligations under immigration law?

Related areas of law
This book will also briefly provide an overview of how non-nationals are treated under related areas of law, such as tax law (which classifies non-nationals into resident and non-resident aliens, the former treated largely the same as U.S. nationals) and social insurance programs (such eligibility for Social Security and Medicare benefits), although this is by no means a comprehensive discussion of the subject.

Customs
This book does not discuss customs law. Although customs and immigration laws are both enforced by some of the same agencies (at the border by U.S. Customs and Border Protection, and globally by Immigration and Customs Enforcement)

Who is the subject of immigration law?
As we will discuss in the first chapter of this book, most parts of immigration law do not apply to U.S. nationals—but this by no means implies that it does not impact them. For example, U.S. nationals.

Terminology
As we will discuss later, the terms citizen and national are not identical. All U.S. citizens are U.S. nationals, but a small number of people connected to U.S. territories hold only nationality, but not citizenship. This book will use the corrected

Another impo. This book will use the term non-citizen

History
For the most part, this book will aim to focus on current law, and use terms as they are defined within the framework of current United Sates law. However, this section is provided as a brief overview of how the nation regulated immigration throughout its history. It is intended both as an acknowledgement, and

Early laws
The Congress of the United States of America passed its first immigration-related bill in March 1790, less than two years after the ratification of the new Constitution in 1789. This law first defined how the new nation would grant citizenship to foreigners (a process called naturalization) any white,. The act did not discuss immigration per se, only naturalization of those already relevant, and the modern concepts of work permits, visas, and. Additionally, the states also had The duration of required residence was extended in 1795 and again in 1798, then reduced in 1802; these laws also restricted naturalization of those who fought for the British Army in the Revolutionary War.

Initially, the Constitution itself made little mention of immigration and nationality matters, beyond requiring that only "natural born citizens" shall be eligible for the office of President or Vice-President. However, the Constitution now explicitly provides for the system of jus soli (granting citizenship to everyone born inside the country). Enacted in 1868 during the post-Civil War period of Reconstruction, the Fourteenth Amendment has had an incredibly significant impact on many United States law. The primary focus at the time was protecting citizenship for Black American

Creating the modern system
The basic structure of the modern immigration system was set out in the

license: Creative Commons - Attribution Share-Alike - https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/


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Free Knowledge Culture Calendar/September 5

Today in 1983 the term “hacker” entered mainstream media when Newsweek headlined: “Beware: Hackers at play”. It led to the introduction of six bills on computer crime in the U.S. congress.


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Transportation Deployment Casebook/2021/Vermont Streetcar

Streetcar Urban Areas & Systems
Below are a list of urban areas and their respective streetcar systems (‘McGraw Electric Railway Manual’, 1897–1920,):

 * Barre-Montpellier
 * Barre & Montpelier Traction & Power Co. (Barre to Montpelier)
 * Bellows Falls
 * Bellows Falls & Saxton’s River Electric Railroad Co. (Bellows Falls to Saxtons River)
 * Bennington
 * Bennington & Woodford Electric Railroad Co. (Bennington to Woodford)
 * Bennington & North Adams Street Ry. Co. (Bennington to Pownal and further North Adams, Massachusetts)
 * Brattleboro
 * Brattleboro Street Railroad Co./Twin State Gas & Electric Co. Brattleboro Street Railway Division (Brattleboro Centerville to West Brattleboro)
 * Burlington
 * Burlington Traction Co.
 * Military Post Street Railway Co. (Burlington to Essex Junction and Winooski)
 * Burlington & Southeastern Railway Co. formerly Burlington & Hinesburg Ry. Co. (Burlington & Hinesburg)
 * Rutland
 * Rutland Railway, Light & Power Co./Rutland Street Railway Co. (Rutland to West Rutland, and Rutland to Fair Haven and Bomassen)
 * St. Albans
 * St. Albans & Swanton Traction Co./St. Albans Street Railway (St. Albans to St. Albans Bay Park and Swanton)
 * Springfield
 * Springfield Electric Railway Co. (Springfield to Charlestown, New Hampshire)
 * Stowe
 * Mt. Mansfield Electric Railroad Co. (Stowe to Waterbury, Palisades Park)

Streetcars
It is important the note that the term 'streetcar' is used almost interchangeably with other terms such as 'trolley', 'tram' and 'light-rail vehicle' (LRV) depending on the time periord, geographic region and preferencial language use. However, in Vermont during the streetcar era ranging 1885 (first streetcar) to The streetcar as a transportation mode typically describes a vehicle that moves along rails in urban environments. This includes vehicles hauled by horse, rope/cable systems and later, electric motor powered. They were primarily used for passenger transportation and occasionally, mail and industrial goods.

Advantages
The streetcar showed several advantages during its use. Assuming the horse motive power has also been substituted, it was cheaper than horse drawn wagons, removed the pollution effect of manure; and the risk of disease reduced from animal to human interaction.

Streetcars could compete with the existing omnibus systems due to increased productivity with increased speed and larger capacity (Garrison & Levinson, 2014, pp. 120). Furthermore, the streetcar system could easily scale up in capacity to fit the market demand of the local area by deploying subsequent streetcars on a given system.

Setting the Scene
Other modes that were available during the streetcar era include horse-drawn wagons (or 'omnibus'), canal systems, and steam railways.

[INSERT PICTURE]

Figure X - Horses dragging a large log to the Sawmill in Vermont

The weight capacity of a wagon was low compared to that of a car on rails. The speed of horse-drawn wagons was limited also. Typically the horse would move about 3 mph when hauling a load, and attempts to increase horse speed could lead to the frequently occurring accidents, such as overturned wagons and runaway horses (Davis, 2002, pp. 41).

Current Market Evolution
By 1910, there were approximately 80,000 horses on Vermont farms, and many more in the cities and small towns (Davis, 2002, pp. 40). At this time, it was the main form of transport that provided sufficient power for the ‘short to medium’ length trips.

For longer trips where the limited speed of horse-drawn wagons would be too costly, so travellers would transfer at a stream railway station where available, although not every town was connected to the steam railway network (Davis, 2002, pp. 41).

Given the impracticalities of horse-drawn transport for long distances, and the issues preventing steam railways to run through the urban areas, the need for an intermediary or ‘hybrid’ form of transport was apparent.

Early Stages
What were the initial market niches?

What roles did functional enhancement (serving existing markets better) and functional discovery (serving new markets) play in market development?

Assess the role of policy in the birthing phase

Describe how policies from precursor models were borrowed, and how other policies were innovated;

Identify policies that were embedded, and those that were imposed/sanctioned by government;

Identify policies that were ‘locked in’ during this time;

Growth
The first streetcar line to open in Vermont was the Burlington to Winooski line, opening in November of 1885. At this time, horses were used to haul the streetcars.

The streetcar was not only planned to be used for commuters to workplaces, as special services would be run for theatre events and baseball games.

The Burlington to WInooski line was converted to electricity in 1893, with another line between Rutland and Fair Haven also being electrified the following year.

Early in the 20th century, Vermont had a capital investment in streetcars of more than 4.5 millions (US) dollars, with 137 cars and more than 100 miles of track. In 1902, streetcar passengers numbered close to 5.5 million people in the state.

When it came to electric railways, most were essentially interurban services, however they did travel through the centre of respective urban areas and functioned similar to the typical streetcar system.

Pre-mature Capital
In the beginning, private companies ran the streetcars. Investment into the streetcars was seen after the success of these systems in the big cities such as New York.

An example was with the Mt. Mansfield Company and their system built between Stowe and Waterbury in 1897. The service only ran 4 round trips per day with limited patronage. It was still planned however to have many extensions built to places such as Morrisville, Eden, Craftsbury, Albany, Lowell and Newport.The Mt. Mansfield Company faced many difficulties with the steep grades, heavy snowfalls, mud slides, derailments and unreliable electricity supply. Residents knew that a streetcar was climbing the hills in Shutesville when their electric globes dimmed (Davis, 2002, pp. 132).

Maturity
With limited patronage and the financial hardship experienced by the private streetcar companies, the Vermont streetcar investors either made little money, or went bankrupt (Davis, 2002, pp. 132).

The Mt. Mansfield Company streetcar line between Stowe and Waterbury, while one of the longest running in the state, went out of business during the Great Depression in 1932, concluding the age of streetcars in Vermont (Davis, 2002, pp. 133).

Attempts to adapt streetcar to changing markets, competitive conditions, and policy values.

Forward Improvement Opportunities
In the 21st century, the streetcar (tram, trolley or light-rail vehicle) is no longer the dominant mode of transport it was in the early 20th century, however they are still currently in use in many urban areas and are subject to contentious debate in the transport planning world as to their economic benefit, particularly with the 'bus' mode of transport (Newman, 2019).

Just as the streetcar is considered a hybrid form of transport between the horse-drawn omnibus and the locomotive railways of the time, the trackless tram was born out of innovation combining the automated navigation technologies from high-speed trains and autonomous vehicles, the form factor of an articulated bus, including rubber wheel technology also used on some metro train systems, and recent improvements in battery technology. A trackless tram manufactured by CRRC was first trialled in 2017 in Zhuzhou, China. It aims to dramatically reduce the large capital cost attributed to light-rail infrastructure, while functionally similar. In 2019 the capital cost of Sydney's light rail rose to about 210 million (AUD) per kiliometre, compared to an estimated 4 million (AUD) per kilometre for trackless trams (Newman, 2018).

Quantitative Analysis
An S-curve prediction model approach was selected to establish indicative birthing, growth and maturity stages for the track length (miles) data provided in the McGraw Electric Railway Manuals. The S-curve is defined by the following mathematical definition:

S(t) = Smax/[1+exp(-b(t-ti)]

where:

 * S(t) is the S-curve function of track length (miles) plotted over time (years), also the independent variable
 * t is time (years)
 * ti is the time at the inflection of the S-curve (transition between growth and maturity phase)
 * Smax is the maximum length of track achieved, and the dependent variable to be trialled during analysis
 * b is the slope coefficient of the S-curve calculated during analysis

In order to establish a best fit for the following urban areas, a range of Smax variables were trialled in a spreadsheet (Google Sheets) based on the existing available dataset of track length (miles) over time (years). The selected Smax variable was chosen based on the collective best peformance of: the t-statistics figures over time, the R squared (spreadsheet function RSQ) and the Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient (spreadsheet function CORREL).

Vermont
Finally, the totalled streetcar track length data for the entirety of Vermont presents the following results:

[INSERT PICTURE HERE]

Figure 1 - Street Railway Construction in Saxtons River. (Rockingham Free Public Library, n.d.)

Images
Rockingham Free Public Library. (n.d.). Street Railway Construction in Saxtons River. Laying track along Main Street. [Photograph]. Retrieved from http://rockinghamlibrary.org/history/items/show/1674


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Transportation Deployment Casebook/2021/Nevada Streetcar

Introduction
A streetcar is a single-unit vehicle that uses an electric motor to travel along a metal track that has been pre-paved on the street.

Technical characteristics
This mode of transportation employs cables suspended above the tracks to transmit electricity to the vehicles via trolley poles, which in turn drive the vehicles via on-board electric motors. The streetcar tracks and overhead cables are critical components of the system.

Main advantages
Previously, vehicles on the track were usually pulled by horses, or by steam engines. Horse-drawn vehicles did not run at a consistent speed and were expensive to feed and costly to operate. Steam-hauled vehicles produced high levels of noise and air pollution.

Streetcars are a faster way of transportation, and their large passenger capacity has effectively increased transportation efficiency, which has facilitated the expansion of urban centers and suburban areas. At the same time, the construction of streetcars also promotes the resurfacing of streets and the improvement of supporting infrastructure, which contributes to the economic development along the route.

Main Markets
In the early 1900s, the cost of trams was reduced by electric traction, and more workers chose them as a means of commuting. In 1904, Nevada had its first streetcar line, which ran from Reno to Sparks and was primarily used by commuters, shoppers, and tourists.

Early period
The streetcar system was a symbol of a city's growth and the most outstanding mode of transportation in American cities in the early twentieth century. Nevada's first streetcar line opened on Thanksgiving Day, 1904. In fact, the United States has one of the best and most extensive tram networks in the world.

Other models and their limitations
Before the birth of the streetcar, urban transportation was mainly omnibus. Omnibus was used in two stages. The first stage was before the middle of the 19th century, relying on horses to pull the vehicles. The second stage was from the mid-19th century to the end of the 19th century, when steam engines and batteries gradually appeared to pull the vehicles, replacing some of the horse-drawn vehicles.

Both of these traction methods have a number of limitations. First, the horse has a large number of uncontrollable factors, often due to the horse is frightened and the vehicle out of control resulting in traffic accidents. Secondly, relying on horses to provide traction is less efficient and the large amount of feed fed to the horses results in higher operating costs. In addition, horse manure further contributes to the dirtiness of the streets. Many of these factors inevitably led to a desire to find a more reliable source of power. However, steam engines were also unpopular on city streets. Steam engines make a lot of noise and are still environmentally polluting. Although battery traction does not have the problems mentioned above, its biggest limitation is that the vehicle has a limited range and is therefore extremely inefficient.

The invention of the streetcar
As previously stated, there was an urgent need for more reliable transportation methods as demand for transportation increased. People began to turn to electricity after gradually abandoning their reliance on horses and internal combustion engines as power sources. This technique was not widely used in the market due to the high cost of batteries and their extremely low mileage, but cable cars were widely used in the United States. The cable car is primarily powered by electricity, which eliminates noise and pollution issues, and its reliance on ropes and pulleys eliminates the disadvantage of insufficient battery range. In fact, many of the later trams were converted from cable car lines.

The streetcar scheme was formally presented to designers with the invention of overhead lines and spring-loaded trolley poles. The streetcar is propelled by a spring-loaded trolley pole attached to the vehicle's top and in constant contact with overhead lines, which supplies electricity to an electric motor that drives the vehicle. The streetcar became the most suitable mode of urban transportation for development at the time due to its high speed and large passenger capacity.

Market development and market niche
Nevada had its first streetcar line in 1904. Initially, it was marketed as a commuter line. The line connected Reno and Sparks and was used primarily by commuters, with subsequent additions by shoppers and leisure visitors. Subsequent expansions have connected the line to the University of Nevada, located north of downtown. The line was operated by the Nevada Transit Co. (purchased by the Reno Traction Co. in 1906). In 1908, the Nevada Interurban Railway Co. opened another streetcar line that connected to the spa resorts on the south side of the city, providing intercity service to city residents.

Birthing phase
Nevada's streetcar project was completed in 1904 and was officially opened on Thanksgiving Day. The line connected Reno's railroad station to Sparks and was originally only 3 miles in length. This line has been the most popular line, carrying 80% of the tram's passenger traffic. Before the streetcar provider could begin construction and operation, it had to obtain a franchise from the City of Reno and sign an agreement to that effect. The agreement defines fares, routes, etc. The initial operation of the line will cost 10 cents and take about half an hour each way.

Growth phase
The streetcar system experienced rapid growth in the United States but was slow to develop in Nevada. The company that operated the line, Nevada Transit Co., was purchased by the Reno Traction Co. in 1906, and the line from Reno to Sparks was expanded in 1907-1908 to extend the line from downtown Reno to the University of Nevada. In addition, in 1908, the Nevada Interurban Railway Co. built a line connecting Reno to Moana Springs. The line is 3.3 miles long and provides intercity service from downtown to the resort.

Mature phase
In 1910, the Reno Traction Co. increased the number of coaches on the line to 8. The Nevada Interurban Railway Co. operated a line with 4 coaches. The Nevada streetcar remained at that size until 1919. During this time, the two companies gradually became financially challenged as labor prices and maintenance costs continued to rise while fares remained limited by the early franchise agreements.

Decline phase
In 1918, the Nevada Interurban Railway Co. had to pay more in wages and electricity than it received in fares. In 1919, the Reno Traction Co. discontinued service on all routes except Reno to Sparks. Service provided by the Nevada Interurban Railway Co. was also forced to close in the same year. Nevada with only one tram line connecting Reno and Sparks. Even so, Reno Traction Co. had difficulty maintaining basic route maintenance.

During this time, applications were made for bus franchises and the number of tram riders dropped dramatically. In 1927, the streetcar line was closed completely, and city buses took over for city transportation service.

Methodology
The life cycle of a transport mode is divided into three phases: Birth, Growth, and Maturity phase. It is characterized by an S-curve, which can be represented by the following model

$$S(t)=\frac{K}{1+e^{-a(t-t_0)}}$$

where

S(t) = predicted system size (e.g., length of the orbit) in year t

t0 = midpoint (inflection point) year

K is the saturation state level (final market size)

b is the coefficient

The model can be solved when K, t0 and b are already available. However, since only the current system size is usually known, since the values of K and b need to be determined by an iterative algorithm and tested by linear regression.

Data & Analysis
Track length data for streetcars are from the "McGraw electric railway manual - the red book of American street railway investment" published annually from 1904-1920. "

The S-curve parameters The Track length (miles) :

It is clear from the figure and table that Nevada has fewer deployments of trams, with an overall trend of increasing first from 1904-1920.

The years 1904-1907 are the birth phase; after 1908 is the growth phase.


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Wikibooks:Reading room/Administrative Assistance/Archives/2021/February

Auto-confirmed user edit only at this page: User:Encik Tekateki/Asia Interactive Maps v1
Dear Admins, kindly request to "lock" this page so that auto confirmed user may only edit the maps. The purpose is that there are many nationalistic trolls that may sabotage the maps markers

Location is at here: User:Encik Tekateki/Asia Interactive Maps v1

Requested by : Encik Tekateki (discuss • contribs) 02:18, 1 February 2021 (UTC)

 * Seems reasonable. Done. --Pi zero (discuss • contribs) 05:22, 1 February 2021 (UTC)
 * , it would be more sensible to move the map into the book, and protect it there, rather than transclude your user page into a book. Is there a reason you've done it this way? QuiteUnusual (discuss • contribs) 14:11, 1 February 2021 (UTC)
 * Hi, I just followed the footsteps of Asia map originator: User:Qwerty_number1/Asia_interactive_map. Kinda forget that you can done it on book pages too. If you like, you can move the pages there.
 * Thanks by Encik Tekateki (discuss • contribs) 04:14, 2 February 2021 (UTC)

Semi-protect request
The page "Talk:Exercise as it relates to Disease/The energy expenditure from combat sports and martial arts training and how it can help reach health recommendations" was vandalised by different ip users. Please quickly semi-protect it. Thank you very much. --Matttest (discuss • contribs) 04:03, 5 February 2021 (UTC)
 * The abusefilter has been updated to handle this. Leaderboard (discuss • contribs) 10:18, 5 February 2021 (UTC)

Applied Programming
I have a class of students who will be working on Applied Programming over the next 16 weeks. Feel free to guide them as needed, but please assume good faith. They're still trying to organize themselves and will likely need several weeks before things fall into place. Thanks! -- Dave Braunschweig (discuss • contribs) 19:07, 21 January 2021 (UTC)
 * What shelf/shelves should that go on? It would be good to have it properly cross-indexed in our project infrastructure. --Pi zero (discuss • contribs) 22:43, 21 January 2021 (UTC)

 * Shelf:Computer programming. ✅. Thanks! -- Dave Braunschweig (discuss • contribs) 00:35, 22 January 2021 (UTC)
 * FYI the three main problems we run into are: not creating the pages in the right place (e.g., creating My Page instead of Applied Programming/My Page), copyright violations and not including the page in a category by adding to their page. We also get a lot of trying to use the Wikipedia style of adding loads of links to Wikipedia pages which isn't normal practice here. If you could guide your students in these areas before it starts, that'd be helpful - thanks. QuiteUnusual (discuss • contribs) 09:06, 22 January 2021 (UTC)

 * The copyright issues and links have already been mentioned. Adding will probably get missed, but I'll try to watch for it and add that myself. Thanks! -- Dave Braunschweig (discuss • contribs) 18:31, 22 January 2021 (UTC)

One of my students, User:Desipeer, is connecting from a globally-blocked IP address range. I was able to create the account for the user, and they are fine on Wikiversity. When they try to edit here, they are receiving an error message. I don't have a copy of the message other than it is related to a blocked IP address range. Would it be possible to add this user to IP Block Exempt? -- Dave Braunschweig (discuss • contribs) 23:21, 23 January 2021 (UTC)
 * As an admin here I can do IP-block-exemption of a registered user account, but unfortunately that user account isn't registered on en.wb, despite being registered on en.wv. ( any suggestions how to finesse this?) --Pi zero (discuss • contribs) 23:40, 23 January 2021 (UTC)
 * This user's account is not registered here, therefore we are not able to grant IP-block exempt to this student's account. —Atcovi (Talk - Contribs) 01:12, 24 January 2021 (UTC)
 * On en.wv I had to create the account for her. But I tried to do that on en.wb and it says her account already exists. She has a request in with the stewards. I guess we'll have to wait for them to resolve this. I'll also suggest that she try a different ISP temporarily. As soon as she gets the account set up, it should be fine. Thanks for checking. -- Dave Braunschweig (discuss • contribs) 02:31, 24 January 2021 (UTC)
 * Can you share with me the globally blocked IP range she's connecting to? I'll create a local exemption for this range, and then ask her to visit Wikibooks. This should create the account for her automatically, and then we can give local IPBE. Leaderboard (discuss • contribs) 09:44, 24 January 2021 (UTC)

 * I don't have the current error message, but two weeks ago it was 2607:FB90:0:0:0:0:0:0/32. I doubt it has changed since then. Thanks! -- Dave Braunschweig (discuss • contribs) 15:33, 24 January 2021 (UTC)
 * I have disabled that range block locally however (as a Steward and a local CheckUser), I can see that the address they've logged in from before is not in this range so they may still have a problem but it is worth them trying again. QuiteUnusual (discuss • contribs) 22:55, 24 January 2021 (UTC)
 * Can you have her try again now? I've forcibly created a local account for that user. Leaderboard (discuss • contribs) 10:36, 3 February 2021 (UTC)

The student never responded, but I believe they created a new account rather than continuing with the same account. Thanks for trying! -- Dave Braunschweig (discuss • contribs) 18:13, 12 February 2021 (UTC)


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Muggles' Guide to Harry Potter/Places/Surrey Zoo

 * "I suppose we could take him to the zoo, ... and leave him in the car...."
 * — Petunia Dursley's reluctance to take Harry to the zoo.

Vernon Dursley and Petunia Dursley took their son Dudley Dursley to this zoo for his eleventh birthday on 23 June 1991, along with Harry.

Appearances

 * Harry Potter and the Philosopher's Stone (First appearance)
 * Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (Mentioned only)


text:
Talk:Transportation Deployment Casebook/2021

Creating the pages
Please create it as a subpage of the book, for example, Transportation Deployment Casebook/2021/Vermont Streetcar rather than Vermont Streetcar. Thanks in advance. Leaderboard (discuss • contribs) 10:40, 24 March 2021 (UTC)


text:
Transportation Deployment Casebook/2021/West Virginia

= Streetcars in West Virginia = The streetcar (commonly referred to as tram in European English) refers to a vehicle that travels on rails and often shares the road with private motor vehicle traffic. Streetcars were a popular form of public transport in the US from the late 1800s to the early 1900s and evolved gradually as new technology emerged. The purpose of this article is to study the life cycle of the US streetcar system in the early era, with a focus on services in West Virginia (W VA) from 1890 to 1940.

Animal-drawn
The birth of the streetcar came about with the omnibus – a carriage that was animal-drawn (usually horse or mule). The omnibus evolved with rails which increased passenger throughput considerably. This early rendition of the streetcar was simple to operate because people were familiar with animal-drawn vehicles from their experiences using the omnibus. While they were simple, horses brought about disadvantages such as the need to be fed and cared for regularly, which increased costs. Horses could only work a limited time every day and produced lots of manure which the operators were responsible for storing and disposing of.

Steam
Steam engines (steam dummies) were used in streetcars for a short time following the animal-drawn streetcar era. They were limited in size since they had to fit in the body of the streetcar, resulting in underpowered vehicles. Steam engines also produced a lot of smoke and noise which severely reduced the visual amenity and air quality of the cities.

Cable-hauled
Cable-hauled streetcars were attached to overhead cables that were powered centrally. While this technology was not used in W VA, they were effective in hilly cities (e.g. San Francisco where they are still used widely today) since their non-driven wheels did not suffer in traction during steep gradient climbs. Their disadvantages include inefficiencies associated with the simultaneous movement of all streetcars, expensive infrastructure, high maintenance costs, and the need to detach from the cable whenever crossing another cable line (which increased fraying of the cables).

Electricity
The streetcar took off when innovators utilised electricity for power. The first electrical streetcars were powered by heavy, inefficient batteries which were attached to the streetcar. Still considered in its infancy at the time, streetcar technology underwent significant technological transformations while it remained cheap and cost-effective to do so. Another early version was Siemens’ line which provided power through live and return rail and utilised the Dynamo generator. Siemens version had limited voltage (and henceforth power), and the use of return rail meant that road users were injured on contact. Further to this problem, this streetcar would create additional electrical shock hazards if the wheels lost contact with the return rail. Various issues including derailment, or heavy sanding of the rail by preceding streetcars would cause this hazard. Frank J. Sprague innovated this technology by designing a spring-loaded trolley pole that maintained contact with the wire through a wheel. Sidney Howe Short’s design of the first electric motor was also utilised in streetcar technology and improved efficiency. Short’s design removed the needs for gears by directly connecting the armature to the axle for the driving force. Electrically powered streetcars quickly proliferated in the United States and displaced the animal-drawn streetcar. The 24-hour operation, profitable aspects, and increased safety made the electrical streetcar the eventual transportation mode of choice throughout the early 1900s.

Markets
Streetcars major market were customers living in suburban fringes who wanted to travel into the city centre (such as in Huntington), and customers wishing to travel between urban centres and customers who wished to travel in and around the city centre (such as in Charleston). Electrical streetcars became profitable, attracting significant investment from capitalists and businessmen thereby accelerating its growth.

= Pre-Streetcar Era - Omnibus = Horse-drawn omnibus was prevalent before and throughout the streetcar era. Omnibuses were not easily accessible due to their high cost. But cities were growing, and there was a hunger for a reliable transit system that could move many passengers at a time. The omnibus was slow, limited in capacity, and did not satisfy the transportation needs of the growing city population. Paved roads were not always available, and omnibuses struggled on unpaved roads especially during the Winter.

= Early Market Development = Before the streetcar, the primary transport mode in the city was walking. Cities were growing in population and expanding geographically – people needed a way to travel from the outskirts into the city centre to work, socialise, and shop. Streetcars became the primary transport mode for several cities in W VA. Low fares, relatively high cost of omnibuses, and fast service were reasons for its growth. Additionally, property developers constructed streetcar lines to increase the value of new real estate in outer suburbs. Like a “magic bullet” as described in The Transportation Experience, the streetcar’s patronage was increased by the increase in suburban population which made further upgrades viable. The streetcar reduced travel times between the suburbs and city centre, and in between urban centres through an interurban line such as that through Huntington, and Charleston. Functional enhancements stemming from the newfound efficiency and popularity of the streetcar system helped to build the market through network externalities. Other examples of self-created market discovery included the opening and connection of trip attractors like country clubs and amusement parks as demonstrated in Huntington and Charleston. These developments primary purpose was to maintain ridership during evenings, weekends, and holidays. The growth of the residential South Side of the Ohio River in Huntington is a great example of the interplay between land use and transport which is prevalent even today. Huntington’s population skyrocketed from 11,923 in 1900 to 50,177 by 1920 and this is largely believed to have been only possible due to the vast streetcar system. Herein lies an example of the positive feedback loop between the population (and thereby customers) and the streetcar system. As streetcar systems grew, so did the population and vice versa.

= Policy in The Birthing Phase (1890) = Transit policy in West Virginia during the birthing of the streetcar system differs greatly from the form it takes today. Streetcars were the dominant form of transport in the late 1800s and many capitalists sought to build systems in multiple cities after seeing their effectiveness in other areas. Capitalists and investors birthed streetcar systems in cities where there was a demand for a reliable and fast form of transport. There was so much competition in Huntington and Wheeling that streetcar operations became unprofitable. The unregulated market of streetcar systems in the state had various disadvantages including complex and different fare and timetabling systems. The competing companies had no interest in collaborating to increase the value of their streetcar systems through network effects. Network effects or externalities such as syncing timetables to allow for better transfer windows which increase the value of the streetcar lines beyond the sum of their parts was not undertaken. Huntington was an exception. Z.T. Vinson, with the help of U.S. Senator Johnson M. Camden of Parkersburg, consolidated the two competing companies “Huntington Electric Light and Street Railway Co.” and the “Huntington Belt Line” into the “Ohio Valley Electric Railway Co.” and interconnected their routes to form a more useful line to the people of Huntington, Ashland, Kenova, and Catlettsburg. For most of the birthing phase, the government left the free market to configure and test the streetcar business model out for itself. In line with other states in America at the time, the government had no real stake or interest in regulating transport and its policymaking. Although, the government was responsible for approving proposed streetcar transit routes which allowed new lines to be formed by private entities. Streetcar companies served public mass transit but were privately owned. Yet they were subject to an important government policy restricting the cost of fares to 5 cents (the nickel fare) regardless of inflation.

Transition of Technology

The birthing of streetcar systems was associated with horse-drawn travel which came with a set of lock-in implications. It was simple to improve upon horse-drawn streetcar by switching to electrically powered streetcars because the cost savings were significant, and the rails were compatible. In some cities such as Wheeling, the steam-powered streetcar was very quickly replaced for environmental reasons. The construction of overhead trolley wires to electrify the system essentially locked-in the electrical streetcar for the next few decades. Two trolley overhead wires were utilised because of the safety hazards brought about by return rails, effectively locking in pantograph streetcars as the dominant technology through West Virginia. In Huntington, Short’s mid-track slot method of electrical power became the dominant streetcar technology which also utilised the two overhead wires but with a safer distribution of electricity. Huntington was undergoing its early stages of technological network development, so it did not have issues with a complex system of overhead wiring which posed safety risks.

Interurban Movement

West Virginia streetcar market was largely shaped by interurban connections more so than urban streetcar systems. Urban areas in W VA were largely still walkable, so streetcars served the niche of transporting people from outer urban and suburban areas to the city centre and in between urban locations.

= Policy in the Growth Phase = Policymaking during the growth phase of the streetcar in W Va was centred on the implementation of various lock-ins and value increases which were pushed forward by the streetcar companies and allowed for by the city government. It is already evident that streetcar service and policy is largely shaped by city politics. A largely hands-off approach on the regulation of streetcars by the state was taken except for approving business and operation cases presented by the invested parties. Streetcar investment and development may have crossed some state lines such as in Huntington, but ultimately the regulatory landscape was administered by city officials since companies and financial entities were mostly focused on business in singular cities. The free reign of investment by the streetcar companies and investors is evident from the symbiotic, simultaneous construction of new lines and extensions with property development, and parks and recreational developments such as in Huntington and Charleston. Competition grew as more investors entered the market upon seeing success in streetcar operations in other cities nationwide. In Charleston, the frequent acquisition and rebranding (renaming) of the streetcar companies were associated with an increase in lines or extension of lines (i.e. track miles).

= Maturity = Development during the mature phase of streetcars as a mode was incremental. The nickel fare policy established in the birth phase remained in place which tightened the profitability of streetcars year after year. 1 USD in 1890 is worth 1.54 USD in 1940, so streetcar companies’ revenue decreased by 40% in real dollar terms. Growth in labour costs further reduced their profitability. Streetcar companies wanted to transition to a one-person operated streetcar instead of two to save on costs. Effective lobbying by the powerful transit unions prevented this transition policy from being enacted. To maintain profitability, streetcar companies were forced to cut costs in service and maintenance which made the streetcar less attractive to customers.

Cities grew significantly in population, and their transport needs become more complex with it. Where in the growth period streetcars served the market niche of getting people to the city centre, multiple urban areas formed in the cities which was challenging to solve using the streetcar. The emergence of automobiles around the 1930s proved to be a strong competitor to the streetcar. Automobiles rapidly replaced the horse-drawn omnibus as a private vehicle due to their superior power and could easily start and operate quickly without the difficulties presented with the horse. As more automobiles were used in the cities, gridlock situations become much more common. The streetcar was trapped in traffic congestion with the automobiles since they shared the road. Buses also improved in safety, speed, and comfort, and many of the streetcar operators in W VA saw the bus as superior technology and began the gradual conversion of many streetcar lines to bus lines. Buses also became cheaper to run than streetcars after 1915, as the American economy became more materials-focused following the war. The oil and materials surplus stemming from the end of the war made it significantly cheaper to purchase and own an automobile. American society was already undergoing a transformational shift as private cars became more attractive compared to public transit. It would be more appropriate to recognise that the streetcar was the superior technology at the time to serve the market, but was superseded by the bus. Buses didn’t need complex electrical systems and rails to be built before they could begin operation. Buses, by nature, could effectively navigate the gridlock situations occurring in the cities by flexibly choosing an alternate route while streetcars were restricted (locked-in) to their rails.

= Life Cycle of the Streetcar System (1894 – 1920) = Birth 1890

Growth 1900 – 1915

Maturity 1915 – 1930

Actual miles of streetcar track in West Virginia from 1894 – 1920 were collected from the McGraw Electric Railway List and American Railway Investments Journal which detailed the miles of track operated by individual companies and cities. The source of data aimed to provide investors a complete overview of the streetcar operations so that they could make educated investment decisions. This source is more than a century old and is one of various historical books that have been scanned into digital copies as part of Google’s project to digitise the world’s books. Certain data was missing or incorrect. For example, some pages were illegible because of scanning errors or the natural degradation of the book over time. Most of the data collection was done by utilising the txt file representing the book which was created from optical character recognition. There were several data points which were not demonstrated correctly in the txt file, of which have been padded by adjacent year data points or determined by linear interpolation. Despite this, the actual miles of streetcar track data have been cleaned and modified to be of the highest and most realistic accuracy possible.

From a curve fitting process, the maximum track miles in West Virginia was found to be 580 which best represented the data, produced the highest R-squared value, and maximising the t-statistic on both the curve intercept and slope. While the data indicated a peak of 560 miles, it is difficult to determine whether this was a local peak or signals the end of the streetcar era in W Va. It is widely accepted that the last streetcar operated in W Va in 1937, so it is assumed that the peak of the streetcar life cycle was achieved around the mid-1920s as indicated by the curve.

As suggested by the S-curve, the birth occurred in 1890, rapid growth occurring from 1900 to 1915, and maturity setting in after 1915.

= Conclusion = Many cities across the world are seeing a resurgence of streetcars (more so known as trams or light rail) in the 21st century as a response to increasing congestion. Though there are notable differences that make the system more effective than those in the early days. Modern transport policy is administered by dedicated transport government departments, in contrast to policy in the early era - New policies around the operations of the tram include exclusive right of way arrangements and preferential treatment on the road. Electricity is the new oil – trams have always used electricity. Trackless tram concepts have been floated around and even tested in some cities. Advancements in lithium-ion battery technology has made it possible to operate battery-powered trackless trams. This mode has cost advantages since they do not have the initial capital expenditure requirements associated with overhead wiring and laying of track. This is another example of the integration of technological innovations to improve the effectiveness and value of older systems.


text:
User:Yicong Ding/sandbox

= 1. Introduction of streetcar system = 'Streetcar' (also called 'street railway' or 'trolley') is a means of local public transit which use vehicles that run on rails (RPR Consulting, n.d.). It used to be the mainstream public transit mode in over one hundred cities of North America in the early-20th century (Wikipedia, 2021). Streetcars can be either designed to run in a shared lane with other traffic, or they can be designed to have dedicated right-of-way. Early streetcars were usually horse-drawn, then electric-driven had gradually become the common source of power.

1.1 Main advantages
With the completion of electrification and the gradual maturity of streetcar technology, the advantages of the system have gradually become significant. One of its biggest advantages is its ability to provide relatively convenient, comfortable, reliable, fast-speed and high-capacity public transport services (James, 2019).

In terms of convenience, the train needs to run on the track, so the operating route is fixed. Since many streetcar systems did not set fixed stations during the earliest operation, a passenger could ride on a streetcar anywhere there was a track (Eppinga, 2015).

In addition, as the streetcars run on the track, compared to the horse-drawn car, the electric-driven streetcars can run more smoothly, providing a more comfortable ride experience for passengers.

Regarding the capacity and speed, electrified vehicles obviously have faster driving speeds and higher capacity than horse-drawn carts. Because of these advantages, the streetcar system at the time was considered the most advanced and fashionable mode of travel in the US. Streetcar was blooming since the 1880s (Stromberg, 2015).

1.2 Main market
Due to the above-mentioned advantages, the streetcar system was dominating the public transport market in most of the main cities in the US. Its market expansion is highly coordinated with the urban sprawl of the metropolis. Large quantity of citizens began to move from the crowded city centre to the suburbs and took a streetcar to the downtown for commuting, or to a market centre for shopping (Bell, 2017). This is also very similar to the current market characteristic of a modern rail transit system.

= 2. Before the age of streetcar = Before the birth of the streetcar, most of the cities in the US were walking cities (Smithsonian Institution, 2017). The scope of activities, such as working or shopping, was usually limited within the walking distance of the residents. Equipped with abundant infrastructure, residents would live as close as possible to a city centre. The inconvenience of long-distance travelling limited the development of the city, and the city centres became over-crowded and unsuitable for living (Bell, 2017).

There were some attempts to use horse-drawn or mule-drawn carriages to provide public transport services in the 1800s, before the electrification of streetcar system (Geels, 2005). Other types of motive power tried in the early US includes steam dummies and cable cars (Wikipedia, 2021). Although the carriages ran on a track, such kinds of dynamics cannot meet the demand for a high-speed, mass-capacity public transport service (Siemens, n.d.). In addition, the illness of the animals would also affect the stability of the system.

= 3. The intervention of the mode = The invention of the streetcar system comprised the technological expertise of electricity and rail transit. Ever since 1835, there were efforts for applying electric traction for railroad (Locomotive, n.d.). In 1879, Siemens and Halske presented an electric-driven locomotive at an exhibition in Berlin, which marked the first successful application of electric traction (Siemens, n.d.). Two years after the exhibition, Siemens built the world’s first electric railroad in Berlin with a total length of 2.5 kilometres.

Efficiency of transport was redefined by electric locomotives. Even in the modern era, there is no other type that can match the low operating costs and high tractive efforts provided by electric locomotives (Electric Locomotives (USA), n.d.).

= 4. Lifecycle of streetcars in Arizona (1887-1948) = Streetcar services in Arizona was mainly distributed in Phoenix. The operation of Phoenix streetcar system began in 1887, and terminated in 1948 (Eppinga, 2015).

4.1 Early market development (1887-1895)
The Phoenix streetcar system was the first public transit system in the state of Arizona. 1887 was the birth year of Phoenix streetcar (City of Phoenix, n.d.). Moses Hazeltine Sherman was the operator of the streetcar. At that time, he was an outstanding member of the community and an investor in real-estate. A business franchise was granted to him by the city, and in order to seek a breakthrough in his business, he developed the streetcar system.

At the beginning, the streetcars in Phoenix were horse-drawn or mule-drawn. It was not until 1893 that the first electric-driven streetcar in Phoenix was put into operation. By 1895, animal-drawn streetcars were all eliminated, the Phoenix streetcar system had completed its electrification process (The Phoenix Trolley Museum, 2014). By that year, the total length of track was 10 miles.

During the early market development, no fixed stops were designed, and passengers could get on and off the streetcar anywhere there were tracks. Therefore, more residents along the route could experience the convenience of the service. As expected, the boundary of Phoenix was expanded, and Sherman’s business was boosted.

4.2 The growing phase (1896-1920)
The length of track of Phoenix streetcar grew from 10 miles in 1896 to 32.5 miles in 1920.

Although the total mileage tripled in these years, the market growth was not smooth. In 1910, a fire accident destroyed the car barn and some of the streetcars. In 1913, employees of the railway company went on a strike. Many residents participated in the strike and boycotted the streetcar operation. Sherman’s company began to decline, and revenue of the streetcar system ran short. The company faced the problem of high maintenance cost.

4.3 The mature and decline phase (1921-1948)
Since the early 1920s, patronage stats began to decline. The system was under deficit. Unable to afford the operating expenses, in 1925, Sherman sold the company to the City of Phoenix at a price of $20,000. Since then, the operation of the streetcar had changed from private to public. Soon in 1927, a bond of $750,000 was invested for the renewal of the system (The Phoenix Trolley Museum, 2014).

However, the rapid development of automobiles started changing the way people travel. The streetcar system cannot match for the convenience of the automobile, and because of the complain of the noise, streetcars were gradually replaced by the diesel buses. The Great Depression from 1930 to 1932 accelerated the decline of streetcar. The tracks were gradually removed. In 1948, the streetcar services were ended in Phoenix.

4.4 The reborn of rail transit in Arizona
In the modern era, the traffic congestion in metropolis caused by automobiles calls for the return of mass-capacity public transit systems. The operation of Valley Metro, a modern light rail system, marked the new era of rail transit in Arizona (Valley Metro, 2017). Now it is the 14th busiest light rail system in the US.

= 5. Quantitative Analysis = ‘McGraw Electric Railway Manual – the red book of American street railway investment’ provided the track mileage data of all the streetcar systems in the US between 1894 and 1920. Table 1 shows the length of tracks of each streetcar system in Arizona in that period:

Table 1: Length of tracks (miles) in Arizona

5.1 The S-curve regression model
In this quantitative analysis, S-curves (status vs time) is used to analyse the lifecycle of the streetcar system in Arizona. A three-parameter logistic function will be estimated:

title: User:Yicong Ding/sandbox


text:
User talk:Hudson Yao

Point of contact
Is there a point of contact for the course you are taking, and do they have a Wikibooks account? Leaderboard (discuss • contribs) 12:26, 24 March 2021 (UTC)

title: User talk:Hudson Yao


text:
Transportation Deployment Casebook/2021/Arizona

= Introduction of streetcar system = 'Streetcar' (also called 'street railway' or 'trolley') is a means of local public transit which use vehicles that run on rails (RPR Consulting, n.d.). It used to be the mainstream public transit mode in over one hundred cities of North America in the early-20th century. Streetcars can be either designed to run in a shared lane with other traffic, or they can be designed to have dedicated right-of-way. Early streetcars were usually horse-drawn, then electric-driven had gradually become the common source of power.

Main advantages
With the completion of electrification and the gradual maturity of streetcar technology, the advantages of the system have gradually become significant. One of its biggest advantages is its ability to provide relatively convenient, comfortable, reliable, fast-speed and high-capacity public transport services (James, 2019).

In terms of convenience, the train needs to run on the track, so the operating route is fixed. Since many streetcar systems did not set fixed stations during the earliest operation, a passenger could ride on a streetcar anywhere there was a track (Eppinga, 2015).

In addition, as the streetcars run on the track, compared to the horse-drawn car, the electric-driven streetcars can run more smoothly, providing a more comfortable ride experience for passengers.

Regarding the capacity and speed, electrified vehicles obviously have faster driving speeds and higher capacity than horse-drawn carts. Because of these advantages, the streetcar system at the time was considered the most advanced and fashionable mode of travel in the US. Streetcar was blooming since the 1880s (Stromberg, 2015).

Main market
Due to the above-mentioned advantages, the streetcar system was dominating the public transport market in most of the main cities in the US. Its market expansion is highly coordinated with the urban sprawl of the metropolis. Large quantity of citizens began to move from the crowded city centre to the suburbs and took a streetcar to the downtown for commuting, or to a market centre for shopping (Bell, 2017). This is also very similar to the current market characteristic of a modern rail transit system.

= Before the age of streetcar = Before the birth of the streetcar, most of the cities in the US were walking cities (Smithsonian Institution, 2017). The scope of activities, such as working or shopping, was usually limited within the walking distance of the residents. Equipped with abundant infrastructure, residents would live as close as possible to a city centre. The inconvenience of long-distance travelling limited the development of the city, and the city centres became over-crowded and unsuitable for living (Bell, 2017).

There were some attempts to use horse-drawn or mule-drawn carriages to provide public transport services in the 1800s, before the electrification of streetcar system (Geels, 2005). Other types of motive power tried in the early US includes steam dummies and cable cars. Although the carriages ran on a track, such kinds of dynamics cannot meet the demand for a high-speed, mass-capacity public transport service (Siemens, n.d.). In addition, the illness of the animals would also affect the stability of the system.

= The intervention of the mode = The invention of the streetcar system comprised the technological expertise of electricity and rail transit. Ever since 1835, there were efforts for applying electric traction for railroad (Locomotive, n.d.). In 1879, Siemens and Halske presented an electric-driven locomotive at an exhibition in Berlin, which marked the first successful application of electric traction (Siemens, n.d.). Two years after the exhibition, Siemens built the world’s first electric railroad in Berlin with a total length of 2.5 kilometres.

Efficiency of transport was redefined by electric locomotives. Even in the modern era, there is no other type that can match the low operating costs and high tractive efforts provided by electric locomotives (Electric Locomotives (USA), n.d.).

= Lifecycle of streetcars in Arizona (1887-1948) = Streetcar services in Arizona was mainly distributed in Phoenix. The operation of Phoenix streetcar system began in 1887, and terminated in 1948 (Eppinga, 2015).

Early market development (1887-1895)
The Phoenix streetcar system was the first public transit system in the state of Arizona. 1887 was the birth year of Phoenix streetcar (City of Phoenix, n.d.). Moses Hazeltine Sherman was the operator of the streetcar. At that time, he was an outstanding member of the community and an investor in real-estate. A business franchise was granted to him by the city, and in order to seek a breakthrough in his business, he developed the streetcar system.

At the beginning, the streetcars in Phoenix were horse-drawn or mule-drawn. It was not until 1893 that the first electric-driven streetcar in Phoenix was put into operation. By 1895, animal-drawn streetcars were all eliminated, the Phoenix streetcar system had completed its electrification process (The Phoenix Trolley Museum, 2014). By that year, the total length of track was 10 miles.

During the early market development, no fixed stops were designed, and passengers could get on and off the streetcar anywhere there were tracks. Therefore, more residents along the route could experience the convenience of the service. As expected, the boundary of Phoenix was expanded, and Sherman’s business was boosted.

The growing phase (1896-1920)
The length of track of Phoenix streetcar grew from 10 miles in 1896 to 32.5 miles in 1920.

Although the total mileage tripled in these years, the market growth was not smooth. In 1910, a fire accident destroyed the car barn and some of the streetcars. In 1913, employees of the railway company went on a strike. Many residents participated in the strike and boycotted the streetcar operation. Sherman’s company began to decline, and revenue of the streetcar system ran short. The company faced the problem of high maintenance cost.

The mature and decline phase (1921-1948)
Since the early 1920s, patronage stats began to decline. The system was under deficit. Unable to afford the operating expenses, in 1925, Sherman sold the company to the City of Phoenix at a price of $20,000. Since then, the operation of the streetcar had changed from private to public. Soon in 1927, a bond of $750,000 was invested for the renewal of the system (The Phoenix Trolley Museum, 2014).

However, the rapid development of automobiles started changing the way people travel. The streetcar system cannot match for the convenience of the automobile, and because of the complain of the noise, streetcars were gradually replaced by the diesel buses. The Great Depression from 1930 to 1932 accelerated the decline of streetcar. The tracks were gradually removed. In 1948, the streetcar services were ended in Phoenix.

The reborn of rail transit in Arizona
In the modern era, the traffic congestion in metropolis caused by automobiles calls for the return of mass-capacity public transit systems. The operation of Valley Metro, a modern light rail system, marked the new era of rail transit in Arizona (Valley Metro, 2017). Now it is the 14th busiest light rail system in the US.

= Quantitative Analysis = 'McGraw Electric Railway Manual – the red book of American street railway investment' provided the track mileage data of all the streetcar systems in the US between 1894 and 1920. Table 1 shows the length of tracks of each streetcar system in Arizona in that period:

Table 1: Length of tracks (miles) in Arizona

The S-curve regression model
In this quantitative analysis, S-curves (status vs time) is used to analyse the lifecycle of the streetcar system in Arizona. A three-parameter logistic function will be estimated:

$$S(t)=\frac{K}{1+e^-b(t-t_0)}$$

where:

$$S(t)$$ is the status measure (i.e. miles of track),

$$t$$ is time (in years),

$$t_0$$ is the inflection time (year in which $$\frac{1}{2}K$$  is achieved),

$$K$$ is saturation status level,

$$b$$ is a coefficient,

$$K$$ and $$b$$ are to be estimated.

Due to the quality of the analysis, the length of track in each system in Arizona are aggregated to get the sum value of the miles of tracks in the state in each year. First, the saturation status is estimated as 80 miles. According to the test, the highest R square is acquired when $$K$$ is set to 80, meaning that the model has the best goodness of fit, as is illustrated in Figure 1: Next, the regression analysis is applied. The result of the regression is as follows:

Table 2: Regression statistics Table 3: Regression Results

Interpretation
The R square of the model is 0.9036, meaning that the model has an excellent goodness of fit, 90.36% of the value of miles of track in the state can be explained by the corresponding year.

The P-value of the independent variable (i.e., year) is less than 0.01, meaning that the years as the independent variable in this model are statistically significant in predicting the miles of tracks in that corresponding year.

From the regression model, it is predicted that the mileage of the streetcar system in Arizona would maintain its growth trend before reaching 80 miles, the saturation status level. 1911 would be the inflection year, where the miles of track would reach 40 miles. Subsequently, the growth rate would slow down. This is in line with the actual growth trend.

= References = Bell, R. (2017). How Cities Are Embracing Streetcars Once Again. https://www.metro-magazine.com/10002970/how-cities-are-embracing-streetcars-once-again

City of Phoenix. (n.d.). History of Public Transit in Phoenix. Retrieved 22 March 2021, from https://www.phoenix.gov:443/publictransit/about/history-of-public-transit-in-phoenix

Electric Locomotives (USA): Trains, Manufacturers, History. (n.d.). American-Rails.Com. Retrieved 23 March 2021, from https://www.american-rails.com/electric.html

Eppinga, J. (2015). Phoenix's First Light Rail System. Arizona Capitol Times. https://azcapitoltimes.com/news/2015/01/30/phoenixs-first-light-rail-system/

James, O. (2019). We miss streetcars' frequent and reliable service, not streetcars themselves. Mobility Lab. https://mobilitylab.org/2019/04/17/we-miss-streetcars-frequent-and-reliable-service-not-streetcars-themselves/

Locomotive. (n.d.). Encyclopedia Britannica. Retrieved 23 March 2021, from https://www.britannica.com/technology/locomotive-vehicle

RPR Consulting. (n.d.). USA Streetcar Systems. Retrieved 23 March 2021, from http://www.railwaypreservation.com/vintagetrolley/vintagetrolley.htm

Siemens. (n.d.). On track – Siemens presents the world's first electric railway [Newton_company-content]. Siemens. Retrieved 23 March 2021, from https://new.siemens.com/global/en/company/about/history/stories/on-track.html

Smithsonian Institution. (2017). A Streetcar City. National Museum of American History. https://americanhistory.si.edu/america-on-the-move/streetcar-city

Stromberg, J. (2015). The real story behind the demise of America's once-mighty streetcars. Vox. https://www.vox.com/2015/5/7/8562007/streetcar-history-demise

The Phoenix Trolley Museum. (2014). A Brief History Of Public Transportation in Metro Phoenix. https://web.archive.org/web/20140829025756/http://phoenixtrolley.com/history/history-of-transit/

Valley Metro. (2017). About Valley Metro. Valley Metro. https://www.valleymetro.org/about/overview


text:
Transportation Deployment Casebook/2021/Nebraska Streetcar

= Transportation Deployment Casebook/2021/Nebraska =

Introduction to Streetcars: Characteristics, Advantages, and Markets
1.Describe the mode [streetcars]. What are its essential technological characteristics, its main advantages, and its main markets.

Description
Streetcar is a light rail transit vehicle driven by electricity and running on the track. People use the way of erecting the transmission line to solve the problems of power supply and safety. It usually runs on the street and carries passengers. Which exceeds no more than five sections, and the track and body occupy a certain amount of public space.

The advantages of road trams mainly include the following aspects.

Low construction cost

For small and medium-sized cities, streetcar is a practical and inexpensive choice. The investment required for each mile of street line is only one third to one twentieth of that of one mile of underground railway.

Convenient construction

There is no need to dig tunnels underground, and almost all construction is carried out above the road surface.

High safety factor

Compared with other road vehicles, streetcars have a fixed track, therefore the frequency of traffic accidents is much lower than horse.

High environmental protection

Because the electric power is used as the driving energy, streetcars will not emit exhaust gas, which is an environmental protection and low-carbon means of transportation[1].

Before the World War I, streetcars flourished in almost every city in the United States. Tram has become the most important means of transportation for people to commute from the city to the suburbs. Because of its low fare, it was favored by the middle class.

Public Transit in Nebraska Prior to the Streetcar
2.Set the scene prior to the advent of the mode. What other modes were available? What were their limitations? How were markets for transportation evolving? How did these factors stir interest in new possibilities?

Horsecar
Horse drawn trams were first introduced to Bowery in New York City by Bank President John Mason in 1832, then spread to densely populated cities such as Boston, New Orleans and Philadelphia, then Paris and London, and later to small towns in the United States of America. The carriage can hold about 30 people at a time. Its internal structure is an open carriage with transverse seats, a central aisle and front and rear platforms for drivers and commanders. There are also fully enclosed and double decker carriages satisfying different kinds of needs for people.

The limitation of the carriage lies in its unstable power. Even the trained horses will have all kinds of emergencies, which cannot guarantee the safety of passengers. In the 1890s, due to the wide application of cables and electricity in rail transit, carriages gradually disappeared in the United States, in Fremont, Red Cloud and Grand Island, Nebraska, only about 6.5, 7 and 1.5 miles were in operation from 1894 to 1920, respectively[2].

Evolving Markets &New Possibilities
Nebraska is located on some of the most important arteries connecting East and West. Within the state, traffic in the East tends to flow to Omaha in Lincoln, South Sioux City in Iowa, and cities in the Platte valley[3]. In 1867, Lincoln's capital moved south of Pratt, making it and Omaha major regional centres. The population of Nebraska increased from about 120000 to more than 1 million in 1890. Lately the International Fair held in Missouri in 1898 attracted more than 2 million people to Omaha, and the prosperity lasted for 20 years. Most western Iowa was in the trade zone of the big city Omaha. The state also operated several railways, with major lines in Omaha and Lincoln. Omaha was an important port for commercial barge transportation in Missouri[4]. However, with the increase of population, people's complained about congestion, which also bothered daily life, and therefore the government encouraged the financing of a new innovative engine[5]. Finally, these problems prompted scientists to try other innovative modes of transportation, such as overhead cable powered railway (also known as electric tram).

Invention of the Electric Streetcar
3.Describe the invention of the mode / technology. What different types of technological expertise were brought together? How? How was the shift from the initial design altered in the face of early experience? Describe the shift from the initial technology to the predominant technology. Remember that technology refers both to hardware (physical artifacts) and software (the way the artifacts are used to produce transportation).

Invention of the Streetcar
In 1834, Thomas Davenport, a blacksmith from Brandon, Vermont, built a small battery powered motor and used it to operate a small car on a short track. In 1860, an American named G.F. opened three lines in London and one line in Birkenhead to run trams. He replaced the heavy eight wheels with the tiny four wheels, which finally had stronger carrying capacity. In 1879, Werner von Siemens, a German engineer, first tried to use electricity to drive rail vehicles at the Berlin Expo[6]. In 1888, in Richmond, the American Spollag used the above method to switch to the electric tractor on several horse driving rail car routes, which improved the collection device, control system, motor suspension method and driving mode of the vehicle, resulting in the emergence of modern tram[7 ]. In Neb, Mercer invested heavily in Omaha's trams until the 1880s, when his lines extended to North 36th and Cuming streets[8].

Technology Shift
At the hardware level, after more than 70 years of development, modern tram has made great changes in technology. Modern rail 100% low floor tram has the characteristics of energy saving, noise reduction, environmental protection, small investment, moderate passenger capacity, good riding comfort, less later maintenance costs and so on. The curbs are laid on both sides of the track with appropriate height, which usually plays a role of providing independent right of way. When the motor vehicles are seriously blocked or other accidents occur, the motor vehicles can drive past the curbs and run on the tram line.

At the software level, an important difference between modern streetcars and old is that a large number of independent rights of way are adopted. Generally, more than 50% of the new lines have independent right of way, which reduces the conflict interference and ensures the driving speed at a high level. Construction in many cities like Lincoln and Omaha simultaneously adopt the combination of old line reconstruction and maintenance and new line construction, and provides new lines in areas with high travel demand, and reasonably allocates the service level of the line or the whole network.

Early Market Development
4. Describe early market development. What were the initial market niches? What roles did functional enhancement (serving existing markets better) and functional discovery (serving new markets) play in market development?

Early market development: Promote the development of urban and rural integration
Although Lincoln and Omaha were the main regional transportation hubs at that time, both their geographical location was at the easternmost end of the state boundary, which means only people engaged in commerce and agriculture on the Missouri river bank could travel to the hub towns driving westward[9]. Therefore, the construction of streetcars in large and medium-sized cities strengthened the interaction between urban and rural people, and especially provided convenience for rural people to enter the city. It promoted the combination and development of urban commerce and rural agriculture at that time.

Function enhancement: Matching with the rise of cities
In recent years, the influx of foreign population and economic diversification, especially the energy crisis, environmental pollution, land shortage, traffic congestion and other problems caused by the development of food processing, machinery, chemicals and other industries, forced the Nebraska state government to take the large capacity rail transit as the focus of the development of urban public transport[10]. Because small and medium-sized cities cannot afford the huge investment of subway, modern streetcar emerges as the times require in small cities.

Function discovery: New distribution system
The wide application of modern tram provides a new way for enterprises in Omaha and Douglas to distribute and process raw materials. The tram system transports heavy goods to various processing plants in batches through a fixed driving path, reducing the cost of freight transportation and the investment of human resources[11]. For the states with agriculture as the pillar industry, the combination of tram and railway can be used to transport farm products to wholesale and retail businesses, which reduces the transaction cycle time of agricultural products and indirectly promotes the agricultural output value[12].

Lifecycle of the Streetcar in Nebraska:Birthing Phase
Assess the role of policy in the birthing phase. Describe how policies from precursor models were borrowed, and how other policies were innovated. Identify policies that were embedded and policies that were imposed or sanctioned by government. Identify policies that were "locked in" during this time.

Role of policy
The initial policy promotes the popularization and application of streetcars. In 1863 Pres. Abraham Lincoln essentially designated Omaha–Council Bluffs the eastern terminus of the first transcontinental railroad operated by Omaha and Council Bluffs Railway and Bridge Company, which lately owned the longest track of streetcar and operated this system for several decades[13]. When the Nebraska state joined the Union in 1867, although Omaha lost its political status as the capital of Lincoln, more and more railways led to the city, and the railway network promoted the comprehensive development of enterprise economy. The traffic bridge built in 1888 connected Omaha and Council Bluffs. In the following year, the streetcars service in two cities was established, which greatly promoted the development of the Missouri River metropolitan area[14 ].

In 1873, the mayor of Los Angeles authorized the operation of street lines, which encouraged small and medium-sized cities to own their streetcar system in other states]. The act allowed the laying, operation and maintenance of tram lines on urban roads. Since then, three railway operators in Omaha including Omaha &Council Bluffs St. Ry. Co，Omaha, Lincoln &Beatrice Ry. Co and Omaha &Southern Interurban Ry. Co had laid a total of about 160 miles of lines. At the same time, when cities like Omaha and Nebraska City are expanding, and people found themselves too far away to walk and have to rely on streetcar system. This kind of long-distance service and exclusive right of way were the main reasons why people insisted on this transportation system at that time[16].

Reference and innovation policy
Similar to other cities, at the beginning of planning and laying lines, the use of overhead lines had potential safety hazards, and the cost could not be recovered in a short time in small cities, as well as fully rejected by members of Parliament. However, competitors are eager to take market share from competitors. These companies have obtained tram business licenses, but in such limited cities as Fremont and Grand Island, the coach business model continued in exchange for the high cost of laying new tracks and building cables.

Ticket price locked up
As Omaha gradually became the largest industrial city in Nebraska state, the operators continuously obtained the control of multiple lines from the government. In order to obtain the guarantee of huge investment in the early stage, as a transaction, the operators abided by the contract with the municipal government and kept the ticket price unchanged at 5 cents until the construction cost was recovered[17].

Lifecycle of the Streetcar in Nebraska: Growth Phase
Describe the growth of the mode. What roles did the public and private sectors play in the growth? What policy issues arose, and how were they resolved? How did the policy environment influence policymaking in this period.

The role of government in the development mode
The rise of Missouri River urban agglomeration brought unprecedented development opportunities for urban streetcars, but also a huge challenge for the government and operating companies to formulate policies. When the industrial city expanded further, the operators noticed that the whole city was distributed into a vast area, which made them invest in the construction of lines to extend to each densely populated area of the city. At the same time, some real estate developers built suburbs around the streetcar lines to invest in factories, which urged the government and real estate developers to establish a kind of tram oriented land Investment and segmentation system, in order to reasonably distribute urban resources, avoiding the construction of long tram lines and the increase in the investment cost[18].

The role of enterprises in the development mode
Entrepreneurs saw the benefits of tram access to newly developed land. In 1902, Omaha &Council Bluffs St. Ry. Co had owned all the street railways in Omaha and leased Omaha, Council Bluffs & Suburban St. Ry. Co., Omaha & Council Bluffs Ry. & Bridge Co and East Omaha St Ry. Co, the total length of lines under its jurisdiction increased from 20 miles in 1894 to 163 miles in 1920, reaching areas among Omaha, Benson end Florence and Council Bluffs. With the enhancement of the company's strength, the company modernized the backward tram lines and continuously improved the quality of tracks, in order to provide more comfortable and stable conditions for passengers[19].

The influence of policy environment on policy making

During the World War I, with the soaring prices and operating costs, the tram enterprises suffered a certain impact, but the municipal government's control of tram fares was particularly loose. Thus with the support of the government, the tram companies eased the economic pressure through fare increase in a few years[20].

Lifecycle of the Streetcar in Nebraska:From Maturity to Decline, then to Rise
Describe development during the mature phase of the mode. Describe attempts to adapt the mode changing markets, competitive conditions, and policy values. Describe how "lock-in" has constrained these adaptations. Identify any opportunities you see to "re-invent" the mode so that it can better serve the needs of today and tomorrow.

Maturity and decline
The mature period of tram is short, and it is replaced by public transportation system and private cars. Most of the operating companies in Omaha, such as Omaha Bridge Company and Council Bluffs Railway, getting less market share, were merged by Omaha and Council Bluffs Street Railway Company in 1901, which was integrated by Gurdon W. Wattles[21]. And later he renamed Omaha traction company as Omaha Traction Company[22]. Although it had more than 160 miles of lines before the acquisition, only less than 10 miles were actually operating in Omaha area at the end of the 19th century. From last few years of the 19th century to the early 20th century, the urban population with tram lines almost doubled. With the popularity of cars in the market, people, cars, horses and tracks coexisted in the city centre, and the growth rate of streetcars system began to slow down.

Failed attempts to save the market
The real problem was due to agreement signed between the tram operation company and the government. The tram operation company made concessions to the car driving. Even if the business was occupied, they still have to give subsidies to the car driving. Many operation companies have had to replace cheap buses to transport commuters to the production workshop at the end of the line. Finally, the government agreed to take actions to allow the tram operators to increase their fares. But both the Nebraska state and the federal governments were more likely to invest in roads mainly because cars and buses have greater flexibility and practicality, as well as to meet the Omaha people's preferences and attitudes.

Finally, because of the sharp increase in the number of cars and the gradual shift of urban road functionality, the rising ticket price was likely to become the last straw of the camel, which made the company facing heavy financial crisis announce to shut down the tram line. In 1952, the streetcar service stopped operation in Omaha, and then the Omaha Traction Company renamed to the Omaha Transit Company[23].

Development and opportunity of modern streetcar
Since the 1970s, while enjoying the irreplaceable convenience brought by cars, people have also noticed the accompanying energy crisis, traffic congestion and the destruction of the ecological environment, which makes public transportation the best choice for social sustainable development. Because the public transport cannot fully meet the travel demand, the cost performance of subway construction in some small and medium-sized cities is too low, and the modern streetcar system has re-entered people's vision.

Modern streetcar system not only retains the traditional advantages of reliable operation and comfort, but also develops its characteristics of environmental protection and energy saving. There are several kinds of trams like trams with special right of way in form, trams shared with railways and trams for freight transport, which are applied in different fields and scenarios. In the process of line construction, the new line is combined with the reconstruction of abandoned railway to update the tram line. This method greatly reduces the cost and provides line network services in demand[24].

Omaha &Council Bluffs St. Ry. Co
The length (miles) of the streetcar system owned by Omaha &Council Bluffs St. Ry. Co in Nebraska from 1894 to 1920 was recorded from McGraw Electric Railway Manual – the red book of American Street Railway Investments. Table 1 shows the actual track length per year and its forecast. According to the graph, the three life cycle phases can be divided as:

Birthing phases: 1894-1902

Growth phases: 1902-1911

Maturity phases: 1911-1920

Omaha, Lincoln &Beatrice Ry. Co
The length (miles) of the streetcar system owned by Omaha &Southern Interurban Ry.Co in Nebraska from 1907 to 1920 was recorded from McGraw Electric Railway Manual – the red book of American Street Railway Investments. Table 3 shows the actual track length per year and its forecast. According to the graph, the three life cycle phases can be divided as:

Birthing phases: 1907-1911

Growth phases: 1911-1918

Maturity phases: 1918-1920

Lincoln Traction Co.
The length (miles) of the streetcar system owned by Lincoln Traction Co. in Nebraska from 1899 to 1920 was recorded from McGraw Electric Railway Manual – the red book of American Street Railway Investments. Table 5 shows the actual track length per year and its forecast. According to the graph, the three life cycle phases can be divided as:

Birthing phases: 1899-1907

Growth phases: 1907-1917

Maturity phases: 1917-1920

Omaha &Southern Interurban Ry.Co
The length (miles) of the streetcar system owned by Omaha &Southern Interurban Ry.Co in Nebraska from 1907 to 1920 was recorded from McGraw Electric Railway Manual – the red book of American Street Railway Investments. Table 7 shows the actual track length per year and its forecast. According to the graph, the three life cycle phases can be divided as:

Birthing phases: 1907-1910

Growth phases: 1910-1911

Maturity phases: 1911-1920

Model
S(t) = Smax/[1+exp(-b(t-ti)]

where:

 * S(t) is the status measure, (e.g. Passenger-km traveled)
 * t is time (usually in years),
 * ti is the inflection time (year in which 1/2 Smax is achieved),
 * Smax is saturation status level, (Choose the maximum length of the streetcar system that you have recorded in the data).
 * b is a coefficient to be estimated.

Reference
 [1]https://baike.baidu.com/item/%E6%9C%89%E8%BD%A8%E7%94%B5%E8%BD%A6/2317603?fr=aladdin#3

[2]https://www.britannica.com/technology/horsecar

[3]https://www.britannica.com/place/Nebraska-state/History#ref78836

[4]https://baike.baidu.com/item/%E5%A5%A5%E9%A9%AC%E5%93%88/35621?fr=aladdin#2

[5]https://www.asme.org/wwwasmeorg/media/resourcefiles/aboutasme/who%20we%20are/engineering%20history/landmarks/101-st-charles-avenue-streetcar-line-1835.pdf

[6]https://www.britannica.com/technology/streetcar

[7]https://baike.baidu.com/reference/2317603/d583aU5_LoD2ALE3bBB60lJdJzgMTSFFb2L8Y-OJebuxOlzOplXl7Ylby9uocDZSklcm_ArB7Pe_Ng2UkJfysNx6aPHraFiI0JmfjJe7

[8]http://www.nebraskahistory.org/histpres/reports/omaha_central.pdf

[9]https://www.britannica.com/place/Nebraska-state/History

[10]Brar, Amritbir Kaur (2005). "Transportation Culture and Policies in the US". Economic and Political Weekly 40 (8): 733–736. ISSN 0012-9976. Retrieved 2020-04-01.

[11]http://us.mofcom.gov.cn/aarticle/subject/investguide/lanmufour/201201/20120107934998.html

[12]National Museum of American History. (2020). The Trolley and Daily Life. Washington D.C: Behring Centre.

[13]https://www.britannica.com/place/Omaha-city-Nebraska

[14]1894, 1897-1914, 1917-1920."McGraw Electric Railway Manual". New York: McGraw Publishing Company. Retrieved 2020-03-15.https://www.dropbox.com/sh/gupewt4mpp4djt1/AACLVS4RQN7cw8nfyYlIKOWJa?dl=0

[15]Kelly, J. (2015, Mar 22). All aboard for a ride through D.C. streetcar history. The Washington Post Retrieved from https://www.proquest.com/docview/1664973005

[16]https://humantransit.org/2010/03/streetcars-vs-light-rail-is-there-a-difference.html

[17]https://www.vox.com/2015/5/7/8562007/streetcar-history-demise

[18]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transportation_in_Omaha#Streets

[19]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_streetcar_systems_in_the_United_States#Nebraska

[20]https://americanhistory.si.edu/america-on-the-move/streetcar-city

[21]http://query.nytimes.com/mem/archivefree/pdf?_r=1&res=9403E0DD1030E733A25757C1A96E9C946397D6CF&oref=login

[22]Larsen, L.H. and Cottrell, B.J. (1997) The Gate City: A history of Omaha University of Nebraska Press. p 107.

[23]http://www.metroareatransit.com/html/history.html

[24]https://www.metro-magazine.com/blogpost/722658/the-evolution-of-streetcar-technology