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Transportation Deployment Casebook/2023/Mexico

Streetcars (also known as trams or trolleys depending on region) were a once prominent form of public transit. The implementation of streetcars was vital in urban development, notably observed in Latin America such as Mexico. The cycle of technology saw streetcar systems removal or conversion to newly favoured modes(i.e. vehicle privatisation). Mexico City (Capital City of Mexico) will be used to make generalisations for all streetcar systems in Mexico due to a lack of information surrounding electric streetcars for all the cities.

1 Streetcars Technological Characteristics
Streetcars influenced the landscape of transportation throughout late 19th to early 20th century. At the time, the prominent form of the single unit streetcars operated using electric motors on tracks embedded in public urban streets. The transition from animal, steam drawn and battery powered streetcars to electric was the building block of the dynamo generator. It enabled the application of transmitting power via overhead electrified wires to streetcar’s trolley pole (metal tracks and wheels ground the electric current in the circuit); spreading throughout Britain, Europe and the United States (Gregersen & Britannica Educational Publishing Staff, 2011). The electrification of streetcars surpassed previous forms due to its ability to unite spaces and alter passenger behaviours through its efficiency, speed, range and reliability. The main market demand for electrified streetcars generated from its ability to modernise environments to navigate large passenger clusters through congested regions; becoming habitual in the daily lives within growing cities (The Streetcar in the Urban Imaginary of Latin America - Anton Rosenthal, 2016, n.d.).

2 History of Modes
Depending on the region of the world, various available modes of transport competed with the electrified streetcar. As not all technologies were adopted simultaneously globally. The primary modes of public transportation in Mexico included walking and animal drawn vehicles. A summary of the advantages and disadvantages of the prominent modes of transport are in Table 1. It should be noted that Table 1 considers the mode of transports as single trips only, whereas in reality a combination of the modes would be taken such as walking and streetcars to reach destinations. These transportation modes acted as building blocks for each subsequent innovation through its market’s requirements. As pedestrians envisioned a mode of transport which enabled for intracity and safe travel under various weather conditions; promoting animal drawn carriages prominently for several decades up until the late 19th century. Then the market garnered interest from passengers and government bodies to identify energy sources which weren’t disadvantaged by the limitations of animals; thus introducing the first local electrified streetcar system to Mexico, Mexico City in 1900 (Wirth, 1997).

3 Invention of Mode/Technologies
The invention of the streetcar began with animal drawn carriages; either small horses or mules. Mexico City in the late 19th century acquired majority of their trams by the John Stephenson Company in New York, an American manufacturer of streetcars and horsecars (John Stephenson Car Co., n.d.). The service provided increased capacity and economical accessibility to public transport for intracity travel. Animal drawn carriages could operate both on and off steel rails, however the street tracks reduced friction between the contact surfaces to help combat animal fatigue. Animal drawn vehicles existed since 3000BC where the Mesopotamians utilised the first horse-drawn vehicles for chariots during royal funeral processions(The History of Horse-Drawn Vehicles, 2007). This technology then incorporated design and policies about seating, carriage and wheel systems to maximise efficiency; reaching speeds of 4-5 mph and a carrying capacity of approximately 14 passengers per single level carriage unit. Animals presented physical limitations (Refer to Table 1) which rendered their ability to work for several hours at any instance; requiring the operating bodies to have several mules and or horses ready to substitute.

The transition to electric streetcars was marked by the expertise in mechanical and electrical engineering. After developed nations such as the United States and Europe had transitioned, other countries soon followed including Latin America. Frank Julian Sprague is credited with the invention of electric street railway system(Trolleys, Light Rail and Subways, n.d.). Frank Sprague’s design incorporated traction motors which drove the wheels. Streetcars supplied the energy required through catenaries (overhead wires) (Trolleys, Light Rail and Subways, n.d.). The wires had a curved upper strong wire in contact to a secondary wire below known as the “contact wire” (Trolleys, Light Rail and Subways, n.d.). The contact wire provided a smooth surface for the overhead poles and conductors on the vehicle. Frank Sprague’s motor was the first practical and reliable motor for streetcars to create affordable and rapid transport networks as it was able to maintain a constant speed (Trolleys, Light Rail and Subways, n.d.) The shift towards this new power source during the 1890s in an attempt to correct the issues with its predecessor was not instantaneous, as majority of world had acclimated to animal drawn streetcars and that electricity had not been readily accessibly globally. Mexico faced economic, legal, and political factors which saw Mexico’s capital city being electrified in 1881 (The Mexican Electricity Sector: Economic, Legal and Political Issues (Chapter 5) - The Political Economy of Power Sector Reform, n.d.). The limited accessibility to electricity meant that electric streetcars were mainly within major cities and not rural areas. The transition to electric streetcars in Mexico made previous streetcar forms obsolete in major cities however still vital in communities without electricity.

4 Market Development
The transportation available in Mexico as mentioned in Section 2 operated at a walking pace, were unreliable or too expensive. This demand prompted a restructuring of existing networks to  practically serve high populations in major cities through electric streetcars. Electric streetcars served multiple markets such as shopping, economy, and socialisation.

The influence of electric streetcars on existing shopping patterns expanded the daily trip distance. Households prior to electric cars were required to walk to their nearby markets to make purchases. Groceries were commonly daily trips as personal refrigeration had not become widely available and therefore the trips had to be short to prevent food spoilage (You, 2021). This issue was further compounded as stores were often specialised and had limited stock. Electric streetcar’s extended range and speed enabled for trips to other grocery stores previously restricted. Given that groceries were generally bulky items as well, the space on carriages (when available) aided shoppers in reducing fatigue.

The economic sector experienced major shifts with the introduction of emerging technologies. The growths can be noticed through the accessibility and speed providing workers with new work opportunities, employment generated through development, construction, and operation of the streetcar railway locally (e.g. conductors) and externally (e.g. John Stephenson Company), and real estate opportunities as developments near stations (Hinners et al., 2018) would increase in market value. The nature of the technology cycle observes a decline in the superseded technology such as the animal-drawn streetcars, thus those involved in that work would experience a down turn subsequently. However, this generalisation wasn’t observed in Mexico given that streetcars were still relatively expensive.

The desired functional discovery of socialisation through the presence of urban popular culture was unfortunately underpinned by social issues. The idea of the streetcar promoting social mixing as a way to foster relations and create new market demand (The Streetcar in the Urban Imaginary of Latin America - Anton Rosenthal, 2016, n.d.), through mass gatherings such as sport events and cultural events. This ideal vision however was subject to the underlying racial and gender prejudice attitudes.

5 Role of Transport Policy
Mexico during the late 19th century experienced a lack of transport policies to regulate safe and functional transport systems due to several outstanding factors. The outcome of Mexico’s War of Independence (1810-1821) left many road infrastructure in disrepair, consequentially increasing transportation costs as residents were required to walk significant distances. Even with the efforts of the Bourbon administrators and merchant guilds to fix the Royal roads, the success was minor. The restoration phase of Mexico meant that most of their policies were relatively new and had not been seen in precursor models. Section 6 highlights the innovative policies which shaped the streetcar mode.

6 Birth and Growth of the Mode
The combined efforts of both public and private sectors promoted the electrification of Mexico’s streetcar railway systems. Under the presidency of Porfirio Díaz (1876–1880, 1884–1911) saw a significant growth of both heavy and light rails which took over half a century in transport planning. The aftermath of Mexico’s war of independence contributed to the decades long effort to revitalise the transport network and community (Moving about in Mexico City, n.d.). The inauguration of the first major railway line in Mexico aided the trajectory of the amount of electric streetcar tracks. This was accomplishable through new policy incentives for private firms through concessions and subsidies (Freeman & Soto, 2019). A major government sanction in the boom of electric street cars was through the Compañía de Ferrocarriles del Distrito Federal, the principal tramway operator in Mexico City being instructed to electrify the predominantly animal power streetcars (The Tramways of Mexico City: Part 2, n.d.). These two policies through government intervention was a turning point in the spread of electric streetcars.

For surrounding infrastructure of the network, the Díaz regime sought to fix and expand the grand road Maxilimian. The road was responsible for reducing travel time between the national palace and the core, however it was effectively abandoned after the restoration of the republic in 1867 (Moving about in Mexico City, n.d.). The new construction would involve the widening of the roads, new buildings, and electric lights (Moving about in Mexico City, n.d.). The supporting infrastructure would form a positive feedback loop to incentivise travel on streetcars while exploring the then new urban showpiece. This project was accomplishable through he municipal government support and federal authorities.

7 Development during Maturity and Decline Phases
The mature phase of the streetcar was mainly characterised by the mass production of streetcars from 35 to 514 between 1900 and 1950 in Mexico city (Wirth, 1997). The subsidies provided by the government meant that Mexico’s approach to managing their growing population was through increasing the frequency of the services (Wirth, 1997). The issue with this locked-in approach was that introducing other transport modes were often unfavoured by the investors (Trolley firms were mainly owned by the British) as there was significant investment.

Buses eventually were introduced to the network and were favoured amongst government decision makers and passengers for their route flexibility (Wirth, 1997). Lobbying from the bus owner’s association, Alianza de Camioneros increased subsidies at the expense of the streetcar system (Wirth, 1997). These factors  saw the decline of streetcars to 193 in Mexico City within five (5) years and have remained low until its eventual abandonment in the early 1980s after services were reduced in 1950 (Wirth, 1997). The bus fleet experienced mass expansion from 3,694 in 1950 to 10,000 in 1985 (Wirth, 1997).

From observing the lifecycle of electric streetcars, railways are integral for metropolitan transport networks. Travellers must be provided with numerous station options within an acceptable catchment area of their residence (for example, 800m as per TfNSW train stations) and alight at stations near their desired destinations. This level of service was dependent on innovations building upon the fundamentals seen in streetcars such as capacity, range, speed and accessibility. This saw Mexico’s first metro railway constructed over three phases during the mid to late 20th century (Wirth, 1997). The metro incorporated 178km of track (both directions), 213 stations and is able to serve 4 to 5 million passengers daily (Wirth, 1997). This evolution in transport technology demonstrates how innovation in transport is significantly influenced by the decisions made in policies and history.

8 Quantitative Analysis
The quantitative analysis for Mexico’s streetcar railway system used the ‘McGraw Electric Railway Manual - the red book of American street railway investment' (McGraw Electric Railway Manual - the Red Book of American Street Railway Investment, 1903) to assess its lifecycle between 1903 and 1920. The birth, growth and maturity periods of the S-Curve were identified using a three-parameter logistic function (Refer to Equation 1). The S-Curve required several assumptions to produce Figure 1 and the Country Sum Model Results in Table 2. The assumptions for the analysis included:

 * Railways specified as electric were only studied.
 * For railways which crossed countries (i.e Mexico and US), the apportion of the track was taken as 1:1 (Required for Juarez and Neuvo Laredo).

Equation 1 Three Parameter Logistic Function $S(t) = \frac{S_{max}}{[1+ e^{((-b(t-t_o))}]}$

Where:

 * $$S(t)$$ is the predicted system size in year
 * $$t$$ is time (years)
 * $$t_0$$ is the inflection time (year in which 1/2 Smax is achieved)
 * $$S_{max}$$ is the saturation status level.
 * $$b$$ is the coefficient to be estimated.

The R-squared value from the model showed that 91% of the actual values fit the regression model. This model is outside the generally accepted range of 95%. However the S-Curve shows a fairly strong fit. The limitations in the results can factor in the assumptions considered and due to the data available in the McGraw Electric Railway Manual. The raw data taken was influenced by the factors below:

 * Manual only recorded major urban cities in Mexico from 1917 onwards.
 * Manual doesn’t incorporate years 1915 and 1916 due to World War 1.

Based on the model produced, it can be interpreted that the birth, growth, and mature periods are respectively from 1903 to 1906, 1906 to 1920, and 1920 onwards. The end of the mature and start of the decline period can’t be determine from the McGraw’s Manual time scope provided (Refer to Section 7 for supporting information on maturity and decline periods).


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Transportation Deployment Casebook/2023/Airlines of Cyprus

1.1 Technological Characteristics
Civil aviation is a means of transportation, including the commercial and noncommercial usage of aircraft. It comprises a vast array of operations, including passenger and freight air transportation, air ambulance services, and aerial firefighting. But it generally can be classified into three parts according to its characteristics. The first is transportation by commercial aircraft, which can include both planned and unplanned trips for people and things. General aviation, sometimes known as GA, encompasses all other types of civil flights, whether they are private or commercial. Aerial work is any job that requires the use of an airplane, such as agriculture, photography, surveying, search and rescue, or any of the other specialised services available.

The majority of nations in the globe are members of the International Civil Aviation Organization and collaborate via that organisation to produce standard Standards and Recommended Practices for civil aviation. The main technological elements of civil aviation are current aircraft designs, sophisticated avionics systems, and complex air traffic control systems. These technologies make it possible for aircraft to fly farther, at greater heights, and with better safety and efficiency than ever before. Modern airliners also integrate cutting-edge materials and production methods to make them lighter, stronger, and more fuel-efficient, therefore lowering the industry's carbon footprint.

1.2 Advantages
The primary benefits of civil aviation are speed, convenience, and safety. In a matter of hours, rather than days or weeks, passengers may visit distant or island villages that might otherwise be inaccessible. As another example, civil aviation also played a crucial part in emergency response and disaster relief operations, including medical evacuations and humanitarian aid. Also, air travel is good for the economy because it boosts trade and tourism and connects markets around the world. To be more specific, the airline industry creates millions of jobs around the world and makes a big difference to the GDP of a number of countries.

1.3 Main Markets
Civil aviation is mostly used for commercial passenger and freight transport, private and business aviation, and government and military aviation (Halpern, 2018). However, the commercial passenger industry is the most profitable and accounts for the majority of aviation traffic and income. Private and corporate aviation, which provides air travel services to firms, executives, and the affluent, is also a substantial market.

2.1 Transportation Modes Before the Airplanes
Prior to the popularity of civil aircraft in the 1920s and 1930s, there were primarily three forms of transportation in the world: water, road, and rail. Unfortunately, they all had limits owing to technical concerns at the time. The term "road transport" mostly relates to walking, carriages, and automobiles during that period. Congestion, poor road conditions, and the expensive expense of creating and maintaining highways have hampered the use of the automobile as a form of road transit.

In the early days of road transportation, the lack of dependable vehicles and the requirement for regular repairs and maintenance faced considerable obstacles. In addition, the environmental implications of road transport and the growth in the number of vehicles have exacerbated the constraints of road transport.

Water transport was mostly comprised of ferries and steamships. Even though this means of transportation has a lengthy history, it has a high freight and passenger capacity. Yet, it has been traditionally hampered by factors such as the unpredictability of weather, piracy, and the high expense of constructing and maintaining ports and canals. Water transport also necessitates costly infrastructure such as locks, canals, and dams. These devices have substantial construction costs and lengthy design cycles.

At the period, train travel was quite prevalent. However, considerations such as the high cost of establishing and maintaining rail infrastructure have constrained rail transportation. Rail transportation may also be rigid, as it is frequently restricted to set routes and less adaptive to demand fluctuations than other modes of transportation. In addition, the marketing of rail travel has faced competition from other types of transportation, particularly vehicle transport.

2.2 Evolution of the Transportation Market
During the Industrial Revolution, the introduction of the steam engine significantly altered how people travelled. Trains and steam wheels improved the speed and efficiency of human transportation. Particularly, railways were crucial to the rise of trade and commerce throughout the era. With the introduction of globalisation in the second part of the 20th century, however, the transportation sector saw an additional transformation (Rodrigue, 2007). Globalization has necessitated the development of more rapid and dependable means of transportation that can link distant locations and enable the movement of goods and people. International commerce and the globalisation of industry and consumption have placed increasing demand on the international transportation infrastructure. Although traditional trains and steamships can carry out long-distance transportation, they are respectively limited by railway construction, time and cost, weather, etc. These reasons make them cannot become the most efficient mode of transportation at that time. In comparison, air transportation has the characteristics of faster and more efficient transportation across long distances, which was needed to support the growth of international trade and investment. In particular, the development of the jet engine in the mid-19th century was a significant technological advancement that made international air travel quicker and more reliable, hence increasing people's desire for international travel.

3.1 Different Types of Technologies in Air Transportation
The development of modern aviation technology has been a complex and collaborative process involving the contributions of numerous experts from various fields. As the aviation industry developed and expanded over time, various technological expertise came together to create modern airplanes. The historical development of air transport highlights the significant contributions of different experts and their unique expertise in aviation.

The development of air transport technology required the integration of various technological expertise. One of the critical technologies was aerodynamics, which involved the study of airflow and its effect on objects moving through the air. The Wright brothers were pioneers in this field, and their designs served as the foundation for many modern aircraft. The first successful flight was achieved by them in 1903, which utilized a system of wings and a tail to control the aircraft. In addition, Santos-Dumont also made significant contributions to early aviation with his design of a lightweight, air-cooled engine and the Demoiselle monoplane. These technologies marked the beginning of modern aviation.

Another important area of expertise that contributed to the development of modern airplanes was materials science. The use of lightweight materials such as aluminum and composite materials in aircraft construction was pioneered by engineers such as William Boeing and Howard Hughes in the 1930s and 1940s. These materials allowed for the creation of stronger, lighter aircraft that could fly farther and faster.

During World War I, aluminum became a key material in aircraft construction due to its light weight and high strength. The use of aluminum alloys in aircraft production was pioneered by German metallurgist Alfred Wilm, who in 1909 developed a high-strength aluminum alloy called duralumin. However, duralumin is not without limitations, as it corrodes easily and can crack under stress, leading to catastrophic failure of aircraft. During this period, other materials such as steel, wood and fabric were also used in aircraft construction, but they were generally heavier and less durable than aluminum alloys.

Shift from initial technology to dominant technology: The initial technology used in air transport was based on piston engines, which limited the speed and range of aircraft. However, the development of the gas turbine engine in the 1940s and 50s marked a major shift in aircraft design. These engines provide higher thrust and allow for faster and longer flights. Gas turbine engines have become the dominant technology used in modern aircraft and have undergone major improvements over the years. The growing interest in alternative fuels and electric propulsion systems in recent years could represent the next shift in aircraft design.

4.1 Early Aviation Market Development of Cyprus
During the earliest phase of civil aviation development in Cyprus in the 1930s, the colonial administration played an active role in fostering its expansion. Cyprus's initial civil aviation laws were created by the British colonial administration in 1933. These regulations establish the requirements for civil aviation personnel and aircraft licensing. Also, the government invested in aviation infrastructure by establishing runways and airports in strategic sites around the island, including the Nicosia Airport and the Larnaca Airport.

The government's attempts to develop civil aviation were motivated by a desire to improve Cyprus' connectedness with the rest of the globe and to facilitate the transfer of people and products. The island's strategic location in the eastern Mediterranean makes it an essential stopover for flights between Europe and the Middle East. As a result, the development of civil aviation was deemed essential to the island's economic growth.

At this time, the government provided subsidies and financial incentives to airlines operating flights to and from Cyprus. This enhanced the expansion of civil aviation and attracted more airlines to operate on the island. By the end of the 1930s, Cyprus had become a key aviation centre in the area, with frequent flights linking it to major cities across Europe and the Middle East.

Development of Civil Aviation in Cyprus:
After the independence of Cyprus in 1960, civil aviation and civil aviation passenger numbers experienced significant growth. Especially in 1973, the last year before the Turkish invasion, passenger traffic has reached a staggering 785,564. This growth is the result of a combination of factors, including growing tourism, expanding international trade, and the island's strategic location as a staging point for flights between Europe and the Middle East.

Most importantly, both the public and private sectors played a role in the development of civil aviation in Cyprus during this period. On the public sector side, the government established the Department of Civil Aviation (DCA) in 1946, there were around 100 people in this department. Their responsibilities were the regulation and oversight of civil aviation in Cyprus. In addition to advising the government on the development of air transport, the department fosters the growth of private civil aviation in Cyprus by giving financial support to private airlines and investing in airport infrastructure.

The private sector also played a significant role in the growth of Cypru's civil aviation. Private companies such as Cyprus Airways and Eurocypria Airlines introduced new technologies and expanded their operations to meet the growing demand for air travel. Cyprus Airlines plays an important role in the development of civil aviation by providing international routes and promoting Cyprus as a tourist destination.

One of the major policy issues that arose during this period was the Turkish invasion of Cyprus in 1974, which resulted in the island being divided into northern and southern regions, with the southern region becoming an independent state and the northern part occupied by Turkey. The war had a significant impact on the aviation industry and air travel in Cyprus, with the economy, tourism, and transportation in the southern region being severely affected. During this period, Cyprus Airlines faced problems such as fuel shortages and declining passenger demand. In order to solve these problems, Cyprus Airways adopted a variety of strategies. First of all, they have strengthened cooperation with airlines in other countries in the southern region to ensure the stability of supply and market. Second, they have adopted some cost-saving measures, such as reducing the number of routes and flights, increasing flight utilization, reducing fuel and maintenance costs, etc. In addition, the government has taken some measures to support airline operations, such as granting loans and tax incentives. During this period, Cyprus's policy environment was more affected by war factors. Cyprus Airlines adopted a variety of strategies, including cooperation with other countries airlines, cost saving, government support, etc., to deal with policy issues. Although affected by the war, the development of civil aviation in Cyprus is part of a larger trend of globalization and the growing importance of air transport in facilitating international trade and travel.

6. Mature Phase
During the mature (post-1980s) phase of civil aviation in Cyprus, the industry continued to experience growth and modernization. Tourist arrivals to Cyprus have increased significantly, notably peaking at around 2 million passengers in 2004, leading to an increase in demand for air travel. In response to changing market and competitive conditions, Cyprus Airways expanded its fleet and routes, and new airlines entered the market.

However, the civil aviation industry in Cyprus faces challenges due to the political situation on the island. The island's continued fragmentation has made it difficult to formulate a comprehensive national aviation policy. Furthermore, the limited market size makes it difficult for airlines to achieve economies of scale and lacks skilled labor and technical infrastructure.

The industry also faces a lock-in effect due to the dominance of Cyprus Airlines. The airline receives government subsidies and protections, which hinder the development of a more competitive and innovative aviation industry. Lack of competition and innovation limits the industry's ability to adapt to changing market conditions and technological advancements.

In order to reinvent the model and better meet the needs of today and tomorrow, Cyprus can consider several strategies. First, governments can encourage the development of a more competitive and diversified aviation industry, with a focus on reducing protectionist policies and subsidies. Second, investments in infrastructure and technological innovation can help the industry achieve greater efficiency and sustainability. Finally, the industry could consider expanding into new markets, such as low-cost airlines, and focus on travel and cargo. To sum up, Cyprus civil aviation continues to grow and modernize in its mature period, but it also faces challenges such as political division, limited market size and lock-in effect. To better meet the needs of today and tomorrow, the industry can focus on developing a more competitive and diverse aviation industry, investing in infrastructure and technology, and expanding into new markets.

7.1 Description and fomula
Historical data on passenger traffic on Cyprus Airlines from 1988 to 2008 was obtained from the World Bank website. The life cycle of Cyprus Airlines was calculated by the following formula.

Using a three-parameter S-curve logistic function:

S(t) = Smax/[1+exp(-b(t-ti)]

where:

The status measure is denoted by S(t) (e.g. Passenger-km traveled)

t is the time (often measured in years), ti is the inflection time (the year in which 1/2 Smax is reached),

t is the amount of time, which is often measured in years; ti is the inflection time, which is the year in which half of Smax is reached;

Smax is the saturation status level

The value of b is a coefficient that has to be estimated.

7.2 Result and Discussion
The predicted passenger load is very close to the actual value. The inflection point was in 2004, and the data showed that the number of passengers carried by Cyprus’s civil aviation peaked at 200 in 2004, which highly overlaps with the content of the data. At the same time, it is worth noting that after 2004, the number of passengers carried by civil aviation in Cyprus began to show signs of decline.

license: Creative Commons - Attribution Share-Alike - https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/


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Cookbook:Algerian Baghrir

Baghrir are a variety of small, spongy pancake or flatbread popular in North Africa, including Algeria. They are made of semolina and/or all-purpose flour, and they are characteristically laced with tiny holes that soak up whatever sauce they are served with. The recipe is quick, simple, and uncomplicated.

Ingredients

 * 2½ cups semolina
 * ½ cup plain flour
 * 15 g instant yeast
 * 15 g white granulated sugar
 * 7 g table salt
 * 1 egg
 * 4 cups warm water
 * ½ tsp baking powder

Procedure

 * 1) Combine the semolina, flour, yeast, sugar, and salt in a bowl.
 * 2) Mix in the water and egg until you get a smooth batter.
 * 3) Set batter aside, and let rest for 15–20 minutes or until doubled in size.
 * 4) Thin with a little water if necessary, then whisk in the baking powder.
 * 5) Heat a skillet over medium heat.
 * 6) Lightly grease the skillet, then dollop in enough batter to make a few small pancakes.
 * 7) Cook the pancakes on one side until the top is covered in holes and fully cooked. Do not flip and cook on the second side.
 * 8) Remove baghrir from the pan, and repeat the cooking process with any remaining batter.
 * 9) Serve with butter.

title: Cookbook:Algerian Baghrir


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Transportation Deployment Casebook/2023/Civilian freight in China

Introduction to Civilian freight
Air transportation has the advantages of speed and mobility and is an important way of modern passenger transportation, especially long-distance passenger transportation. It is also an indispensable mode of transportation for international trade, transportation of valuable goods, fresh cargoes and precision instruments. Air transportation has six characteristics: commodity, service, international, paramilitary, capital, technology and risk-intensive and natural monopoly.

Essential Technological Characteristic--Aircraft
Modern aircraft are mainly fixed-wing aircraft. The aircraft consists of wings, fuselage, flaps, spoilers, manoeuvring surfaces, tail assembly, landing gear and power plant.

Basic Technology
The aircraft wing mainly provides lift to keep the aircraft in the air. The power generated by the aircraft must be able to lift the full weight of the aircraft, which includes fuel, all passengers and cargo.

The fuselage of the aircraft is designed as a streamlined fuselage to reduce drag in flight.

The flaps are located on the trailing edge of the wings and are used mainly during the landing and take-off phases to increase lift while reducing airspeed.

Spoilers are used to disrupt the airflow over the wings, thereby quickly reducing the lift acting on the aircraft's wings.

Manoeuvring surfaces are used to control the aircraft's attitude and can be used to manoeuvre and control the aircraft's tail assembly.

The tail section has vertical and horizontal stabiliser surfaces which are used to provide stability to the aircraft.

The horizontal stabilisers prevent the aircraft from jerking up and down. The vertical stabiliser prevents the aircraft from oscillating from side to side.

The levelling tabs are generally fitted to the aileron surfaces and the rear of the rudder, and their function is to ensure that the aircraft is flown in a stable and balanced condition.

The landing gear supports the aircraft in the water or on the ground and at rest during landing and take-off.

The wheels of most aircraft are mounted on the shock-absorbing struts of the landing gear.

The engines and power units are located under the wings and provide the aircraft with the thrust to advance through the air.

Main Advantages
1. The speed of transport is high. Modern jet transport aircraft are generally in about 900 miles per hour, Concorde up to 1350 miles per hour. Air routes are not restricted by ground conditions, generally can fly in a straight line between two points, the range is much shorter than the ground, and the farther the distance, the more significant the advantages of fast.

2. Safety and accuracy. Air transport is safer, the rate of damage to the goods is low, to ensure the quality of transport, such as the use of air containers, it is more secure. Aircraft navigation has a certain schedule, can guarantee the arrival on time.

3. Simple procedures. Air transport in order to reflect its fast and convenient characteristics, for the shipper to provide a simple consignment procedures, but also by the freight forwarder to pick up the goods and for its all transport procedures.

4. save packaging, insurance, interest and storage costs. Due to the speed of air transport, goods in transit time is short, the cycle is fast, the inventory can be relatively reduced, the funds can be quickly recovered.

Main Markets
The main markets can be considered in several ways:

1. There are a considerable number of intercontinental markets in international trade today, where competition for goods is fierce, market conditions are rapidly changing and time is efficiency. Air cargo transportation has the characteristics of faster than other modes of transport, can make the import and export of goods can grab the market, sell at a good price, enhance the competitiveness of goods, the development of international trade has played a great role in promoting.

2. Air cargo transportation is suitable for the transportation of fresh and perishable and seasonal commodities. These commodities have very high requirements for time, and if the transport time is too long, the commodities may become waste products and cannot be supplied to the market; seasonal commodities and emergency goods must be transported to the market to fight for time, otherwise they will become stagnant commodities. The use of air transport, can keep fresh and alive, but also conducive to opening up the long-distance market.

3. The use of aircraft transportation like computers, precision instruments, electronic products, complete sets of equipment in the precision part, precious and rare metals, watches, photographic equipment, textiles, clothing, silk, leather products, Chinese and Western medicine, handicrafts and other high-value goods, to adapt to the characteristics of the rapid changes in the market. The advantages of speed, safety and accuracy can be used to make up for the high freight costs.

4. Air transport is an important part of international multimodal transport. In order to give full play to the special characteristics of air transport, in places that cannot be reached directly by air transport, can also be used in the form of joint transport, such as common land-air intermodal transport, sea-air intermodal transport, land-air-land intermodal transport, and even land-sea-air intermodal transport, with other modes of transport, so that various modes of transport show their strengths and complement each other.

Before the advent of air freight
Before the advent of air freight, the three main modes of transport were generally by road, rail and water. And these three modes of transport had limitations.

1.Physical space and geographical limitations in road transport

2.High cost of money and time for water transport

3.The instability, insecurity and untimeliness of rail and road transport

The Scene Before The Modes
Before the First World War, the world was dominated by road transport. Among these were trams, which were popular. But since the invention of the aeroplane, public curiosity and exploration of other countries has increased. It was discovered that both road transport and rail transport were less fast and carried less volume compared to aircraft. After the First World War, economies and trade between countries became more frequent. In order to explore new markets and develop local economies more quickly, people also began to explore air transport.

The quest for faster transport, lower transport costs and more efficient, safe and comfortable transport has led to interest in new possibilities for air transport.

TCAS (Traffic Collision Avoidance System)
The TCAS plays an important role in ensuring flight safety. TCAS is able to predict future hazards and alert pilots to avoid them by detecting conflicts with aircraft in the vicinity.

The aviation industry began working on airborne collision avoidance systems as early as the 1950s, but their application was not widespread due to technical problems. It was not until the 1980s, after many air crashes, that the first generation of air collision avoidance systems were developed. The TCAS I system operates by using a transponder on the aircraft to determine the aircraft's heading and altitude so that the aircraft can display the distance and altitude between each other.

Autopilot system
An autopilot is a device that automatically controls the aircraft according to certain technical requirements. It is used in manned aircraft to relieve the pilot of the burden of flying the aircraft automatically at a certain attitude, heading, altitude and Mach number.

Civil Aviation Law of the People's Republic of China
It is a law enacted by China to safeguard the country's airspace sovereignty and civil aviation rights, to guarantee the safe and orderly conduct of civil aviation activities, to protect the legitimate rights and interests of all parties involved in civil aviation activities, and to promote the development of civil aviation.

Rules for the Domestic Carriage of Goods by Civil Aviation of China
were formulated in accordance with the Civil Aviation Law of the People's Republic of China in order to strengthen the management of air cargo transportation and maintain the normal order of air transportation.

Early Market Development
On November 2, 1949, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China decided to establish a Civil Aviation Bureau under the People's Revolutionary Military Committee, under the guidance of the Air Force. 1950, when the new Chinese civil aviation was first established, there were only 30 small aircraft, with an annual passenger traffic of only 10,000 people and a total transport turnover of only 1.57 million tons of kilometres.

The initial market niche was based on military control in a state of war, giving priority to the transport of goods for the military. The cargoes were mostly military or emergency supplies. After the end of the war, the military gradually reduced the use of civilian airports and civilian passenger aircraft, thus gradually shifting this segment to civilian cargo.

Functional enhancement is more of a role in maintaining stability and improving the effectiveness of all aspects of transport; functional discovery plays a role in progressive development, combined with policy to continuously innovate the route forward.

Policy in the 'Birth Phase'
Strategic Decision: China resumed participation in ICAO activities in 1974. In 1978, the Third Plenary Session of the Eleventh Central Committee made the strategic decision to "shift the focus of the Party's work and the nation's attention to socialist modernisation", ushering in a new period of development for China's socialist cause. In order to meet the requirements of this new situation, China's civil aviation management system underwent a fundamental reform and a period of rapid development of China's air transport industry began.

On February 14, 1980, Deng Xiaoping pointed out that "civil aviation must be enterprise". On March 5 of the same year, the Chinese government decided to separate civil aviation from the military establishment, and changed the Civil Aviation Administration of China from being subordinate to the Air Force to being an agency directly under the State Council, with enterprise management.

In March 1980, China's civil aviation was separated from the military establishment and the government and enterprises were separated, taking the path of enterprise.

In 1987, the Chinese government decided to reform the civil aviation industry with a system characterised by the separation of airlines and airports. Six national backbone airlines, namely Air China, China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, China Southwest Airlines, China Northwest Airlines and China Northern Airlines, were established to operate independently, be self-financing and compete on an equal footing.

The policy and strategy re-birth phase is more of a protective role. Backed by the state and the industry as a whole to promote air cargo development.

The development of freight in China is mostly based on the more mature policies of the United States, and combined with China's own development, so as to conclude the development of policies suitable for China's freight. When the operation of this mode of transport is stable, the development of areas suitable for the development of air cargo, and seek to cooperate with other countries to learn from each other to complement each other.

Some of the policies that will help the development of air cargo in China are as follows：

Tax incentives: The Chinese government has implemented a number of tax incentives for air cargo companies.

Easing market access: As most Chinese freight is international, seeking cooperation is best combined with private and state-owned capital. China has gradually relaxed access restrictions on foreign-owned air cargo companies and encouraged domestic and foreign air cargo companies to compete in China's air cargo market.

Strengthening international cooperation: The Chinese government is actively promoting cooperation with international air cargo companies to facilitate the international development of Chinese air cargo companies.

Improving air cargo technology: China has increased its investment in air cargo technology research and development to promote technological innovation and improve the efficiency and quality of air cargo.

Growth Phase
With WTO accession, an air service agreement was signed between the US and China in 1999, which calls for an increase in the number of flights between the two sides to 54 flights per week, including 37 passenger and 17 cargo flights, by 2004. In 2007, a more liberalised agreement was drafted to increase the number of scheduled weekly flights to 249 from 2010, with 121 passenger and 128 cargo flights.

Private
The Chinese government has started to allow foreign participation in state-owned airlines at a much higher rate. Prior to 2002, foreign equity participation was restricted in policy to a maximum of 49%, and in practice most foreign investors at that time had a participation of around 30%.

The role of the private sector (business) is primarily to actually run the air cargo business. They have the experience and expertise to provide an efficient and professional service, and are also the main drivers of innovation and technological progress. They are able to continuously optimise operational processes, improve service quality and customer experience, and enhance business profitability.

Public
In 2008, the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) issued "Ten Measures to Promote the Stable and Rapid Development of the Industry in Response to the International Financial Crisis", which proposed to "expedite the approval of eligible cargo airlines and branches that have applied for and All airlines have to be approved before they can be listed and established.

The role of the public sector (government) is mainly to provide support in terms of infrastructure development, policy development and regulation.

Policy
Another important concession is that the Chinese government has begun to allow foreign participation in state-owned airlines at a greater rate.

In early 2004, the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) promulgated the "Opinions on Several Policies and Measures to Accelerate the Development of Domestic Air Cargo", which proposed to "liberalise access to the domestic air cargo market", i.e. to encourage the development of all-cargo airline enterprises, and to encourage the construction of cargo hubs at airports in Tianjin, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Wuhan, Kunming, etc., after which cargo The rapid development of the airline industry was followed. More private cargo companies started flying between 2004 and 2008.

There are still a number of policy issues in the Chinese air cargo industry, mainly including the following：

Inadequate regulation of the industry: There are still shortcomings in the regulation of the industry, with safety hazards being particularly prominent.

Inadequate infrastructure construction: Inadequate infrastructure construction in some air cargo airports and air logistics parks has led to low freight efficiency and difficulties in meeting market demand.

Lack of standardisation and informatisation: The lack of a standardised and informative transport service management system has led to opaque information and inefficient transport in the air cargo market, making it difficult to achieve efficient management.

To address these issues, industry regulation should be strengthened, investment in civil aviation-related infrastructure should be increased, and standardisation and information technology should be continuously promoted.

During this period, the policy environment was favourable for air cargo development, with government support and policy incentives providing a better market environment and more opportunities for businesses to grow.

Mature Phase
Following the global financial crisis in 2008, the economic slowdown or recession led to a reduction in demand for cargo, which in turn led to significant changes in the market. At the same time, traditional all-cargo airline companies were forced to cease operations, restructure or transform their development, but individual companies are still seeking a way out. The opportunity to redevelop in 2016, the Civil Aviation Administration of China issued a "notice on strengthening the market access management of new airlines", proposed "to support investors to set up all-cargo airlines, to carry out cargo market, improve the cargo route network, and promote the development of air cargo", which brings new development for China's cargo airline enterprises. This brings new opportunities for the development of Chinese cargo airlines.

During the development of China's air cargo industry, attempts are constantly being made to adjust the air cargo market, competitive conditions and policy values in three areas.

1.On the market side, air cargo companies need to adjust to market demand. For example, opening up new routes and increasing cargo capacity to meet market demand.

2.In terms of competitive conditions, air cargo companies need to continuously improve their competitiveness in order to maintain their dominant position in the market.

3.In terms of policy values, air cargo companies need to pay attention to policy changes and adjustments in order to cope with the good or bad effects of policies.

Opportunity to “Re-invent” the mode
Digitisation: Air cargo companies can improve efficiency and reduce costs by increasing the digitisation of their systems and processes.

Green development: Air cargo companies can adopt environmentally friendly technologies, such as the use of low carbon fuels, to reduce carbon emissions and environmental pollution and achieve sustainable development.

Quantitative Analysis
According to the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics of China for the past years, the data is:

$${\displaystyle S(t)=S_{max}/[1+exp(-b(t-t_{i}))]}$$

In this formula:

 * $$S(t)$$ is the status measure (Air freight volume (million tons))
 * $$t$$ is time (usually in years)
 * $$t_i$$ is the inflection time (year in which is achieved)

 * $$S_{max}$$ is saturation status level
 * $$b$$ is a coefficient

Estimate $$S_{max}$$ and $$b$$ were made using the following formula: $$Y=bX+c$$

In this formula:

$$Y=\ln(Passenger/(K-Passenger))$$

$$X=Year$$

The projections are relatively appropriate. The square of R in the forecast estimates is relatively close to 1. Although there are several clear signs of growth and decline over the 47 years of the statistics, they do not affect the overall estimated forecast and the final forecast is similar (leaving aside the decline in the 2020 data due to exceptional reasons).

As can be seen from the graphs formed by the data, from 1974 to 2005 there was a relatively even and steady rise, which I consider to be the birth period of China's air cargo; then, from 2005 to 2012, there were a number of fluctuations, which I consider to be the "pain period" that must be experienced during the growth phase After that, from 2012 to 2019, the figures continue to rise again, indicating that the industry has reached a mature stage, so I consider this period to be a period of maturity and growth for China's air cargo; and finally, the figures for 2020, when the industry is in recession for some specific reasons, are predicted to grow until the industry picks up after this year It will be difficult to return to the previous state and the figures will hardly rise compared to those before 2020.

This suggests that China's air freight will be severely affected by the environment, especially the adverse effects.


text:
Transportation Deployment Casebook/2023/Hong Kong

The introduction of ferry
A ferry is a ship, boat, or amphibious vehicle used to carry passengers, sometimes vehicles and cargo, across water. Ferries are part of the public transportation system of many waterfront cities and islands. There are many stops for small ferries, such as in Venice, Italy, sometimes referred to as water buses or water cabs.

Compared with bridges and tunnels, ferries advantage has a shorter construction period, which are less expensive to build, and can form transportation capacity more quickly. However, the bridges and tunnels are convenient and fast to pass, which is more conducive to increasing the transportation capacity of the whole line. Therefore, with the construction and development of bridges and tunnels, ferries will be gradually replaced in most cases. For example, the Channel Rail Tunnel, which was completed and opened in May 1994, replaced the Channel Rail and road ferries, and connected the UK to the European continent. (Bian, 2009) There are widespread applications in Hong Kong, Mumbai, India, Russia and many other places around the world. The design of a ferry depends on the length of the route, the required passenger or vehicle capacity, the speed requirements and the water condition the vessel must cope with.

Ferry technology uses propulsion systems which can typically powered by diesel engines; Navigation equipment needs to withstand the natural environment such as waves and wind, and ensure the safety of passengers and cargo; Automation systems can control parameters such as vessel movement, position and speed, thereby improving operational efficiency, reducing personnel requirements and increasing safety; Aids to navigation to ensure safe navigation, ferry vessels are usually equipped with a variety of aids, such as radar, GPS navigation, and communication equipment, to help the crew monitor the vessel's position and environment, as well as communicate with land and other vessels.

The limitation of the ferry
Small boats, rafts, and canoes were the main modes of water transportation before the invention of the ferry. Larger boats, such as galleys and commerce ships, were available and mostly employed for long-distance travel rather than local transit. Land-based alternatives included horse-drawn carriages, wagons, and carts. The condition of the road infrastructure, which was inadequate and difficult to traverse these modes. This made it difficult and time-consuming to carry goods and people over land.

At the same time, the development of steam power and advances in shipbuilding technology made it possible to build larger, more stable vessels that could more efficiently transport people and cargo through bodies of water. These factors, combined with the growing demand for transportation, have prompted interest in the development of ferries and other types of water-based transportation. In addition, the growth of tourism and leisure travel to coastal and island destinations has created a demand for reliable and efficient transportation options. This has led to the development of specialized vessels, such as passenger ferries and sightseeing boats, to meet the needs of travelers and tourists.

Overall, the limitations of existing modes of transportation, coupled with the growing demand for faster and more efficient transportation, have prompted interest in the development of ferries and other types of water-based transportation that offer an innovative way to move goods and people across waters.

The invention of the ferry
The invention of the ferry mode dates to ancient times, when humans first began using boats to transport people and goods through bodies of water. However, the modern ferry as we know it today originated in the 19th century, when advances in steam power and shipbuilding technology made it possible to build larger and more reliable vessels. (Bruzzone et al., 2012)

The development of ferries required the integration of multiple expertise, including shipbuilding, steam engine design, navigation and safety systems. Shipbuilders were responsible for designing and building the ferry's hull, while steam engine designers were responsible for developing the propulsion system. Navigation specialists were required to design the route and ensure safe navigation, while safety specialists were responsible for developing systems to protect passengers and crew in the event of an emergency. In addition to hardware, software plays a crucial role in the development of ferry technology. Navigation tools, such as compasses and sextants,

Several distinct types of vessels were employed for transportation in the early days of ferry travel. Sidewheelers, sternwheelers, and propeller boats were among them. Each design had its own set of benefits and drawbacks, and the evolution from the initial concept evolved in the face of early experience. Early sidewheelers, for example, were popular due to their speed and agility, but they were also prone to capsize in heavy waves. As a result, the sternwheeler was developed, which was more stable but slower and less agile.

The invention of the ferry represents a combination of various technical expertise, including ship construction, navigation, propulsion systems, and communication technologies. The evolution of ferry technology demonstrates the continuous improvement of transportation systems throughout history.

The Hong Kong ferry
As a part of China, Hong Kong has undergone great historical changes and has a pivotal position in the world. Hong Kong Ferry is one of the most important means of transportation in Hong Kong, mainly used to connect different areas of Hong Kong Island, Kowloon and the New Territories.

Market development
The history of Hong Kong's boat market is intertwined with the city's colonial past. Due to the inflow of foreign traders and immigration in the mid-nineteenth century, Hong Kong's population increased fast. The natural port of the city made it a perfect position for marine trade, and ferries were essential in linking different areas of the city and aiding business.

Originally, modest operators providing basic transportation services between various regions of Hong Kong Island and the mainland dominated the ferry business. Customers served by these operations included traders, labourers, and residents. Upgrades were vital in the early phases of the ferry market's development as operators fought to provide better services and attract more consumers. This resulted in larger and more comfortable boats, greater safety features, and more regular and consistent schedules. To cut wait times and improve customer convenience, operators have also built more efficient ticketing and boarding systems. When operators found new market niches and developed their offerings to satisfy rising consumer needs, functional requirements have also played a role in market growth. Some operators, for example, have established night boats to accommodate the expanding entertainment business, whilst others have developed specialised services for visitors and sightseers. The ferry market in Hong Kong is getting increasingly competitive as the city continues to expand and develop, and larger operators are beginning to dominate the business. Nonetheless, the early history of the Hong Kong ferry business demonstrates that functional development and feature research were critical in propelling the market ahead and addressing customers' shifting wants.

Birth
During the birth of the ferry market in Hong Kong, policy played a critical role in shaping the industry and facilitating its development. Many of the policies implemented during this period borrowed from earlier ferry models, while others were innovated to suit the unique needs and challenges of Hong Kong.

An example of a policy that borrowed from earlier models is the development of ferry routes and schedules. This is based on the experience of other ferry markets that have developed standardized routes and schedules to ensure consistent and reliable service. In Hong Kong, ferry operators work closely with the government to develop routes and schedules that meet the needs of different customers and markets.

Another policy that draws on the precursor model is the development of safety regulations and standards. This is particularly important in Hong Kong, where the city's natural harbor and busy waterways pose significant safety challenges. The government works closely with ferry operators to develop and enforce safety regulations to help ensure the safety of passengers and crew. In addition to policies that build on previous models, the Hong Kong ferry market has innovated new policies specifically tailored to the local environment. For example, Government incentives have been developed to encourage the growth of night boats to service the expanding entertainment market.

The government has implemented or approved other policies, such as fare and tariff setting. The government has played a key role in regulating fares to ensure that they are fair and reasonable for customers, while also allowing operators to generate sufficient revenue to maintain and improve their services. Overall, the policies pursued by the Hong Kong ferry market during its birth phase have been critical to its development and success. Many of these policies built on earlier models, while others innovated to adapt to the unique needs and challenges of the local environment. Some policies were embedded and became part of the industry's infrastructure, while others were imposed or approved by the government. Collectively, these policies have helped shape the industry and laid the foundation for its continued growth and evolution.

The development of the Hong Kong ferry model has been a complex process involving both public and private institutions. The policy environment has had a significant impact on the industry throughout this period.

In the early stages of ferry market growth, the private sector dominated. As ferry operators invested in building larger, more modern vessels, introducing new services and routes, and competing aggressively to capture market share. This has helped drive innovation and improve the quality of service provided to customers.

The public sector has also played a key role in the growth of the ferry market. The government has established a regulatory framework to ensure the safety and reliability of services and has worked with ferry operators to develop standardized routes and schedules. The government also played a role in setting fares and tariffs to ensure affordability and access to services for all customers.

As there are more private shipping companies, they compete. The main issue that arose during this period was the need to balance the interests of ferry operators and customers. As the industry grows and competition intensifies, operators sometimes put profits ahead of service quality and customers can become extremely dissatisfied. Policymakers must develop policies that support the profitability of the industry while protecting the interests of customers in such situations.

Another policy issue is the need to ensure the safety of passengers and staff. This is particularly important for Hong Kong, where the natural harbor and busy waterways pose significant safety challenges. Policymakers worked closely with ferry operators to develop and enforce safety regulations that would help reduce the risk of accidents and incidents.

Overall, the development of Hong Kong ferries during the growth period has been shaped by a complex interplay between the public and private sectors. Policymakers have had to deal with a range of policy issues and challenges, while also responding to the changing needs and expectations of customers and operators. During this period, the policy environment has played a key role in shaping policy development, influencing the direction and content of policy and helping to support the continued growth and success of the industry.

Growth
The development of the Hong Kong ferry model has been a complex process involving both public and private institutions. The policy environment has had a significant impact on the industry throughout this period.

In the early stages of ferry market growth, the private sector dominated. As ferry operators invested in building larger, more modern vessels, introducing new services and routes, and competing aggressively to capture market share. This has helped drive innovation and improve the quality of service provided to customers.

The public sector has also played a key role in the growth of the ferry market. The government has established a regulatory framework to ensure the safety and reliability of services and has worked with ferry operators to develop standardized routes and schedules. The government also played a role in setting fares and tariffs to ensure affordability and access to services for all customers.

As there are more private shipping companies, they compete. The main issue that arose during this period was the need to balance the interests of ferry operators and customers. As the industry grows and competition intensifies, operators sometimes put profits ahead of service quality and customers can become extremely dissatisfied. Policymakers must develop policies that support the profitability of the industry while protecting the interests of customers in such situations.

Another policy issue is the need to ensure the safety of passengers and staff. This is particularly important for Hong Kong, where the natural harbor and busy waterways pose significant safety challenges. Policymakers worked closely with ferry operators to develop and enforce safety regulations that would help reduce the risk of accidents and incidents.

Overall, the development of Hong Kong ferries during the growth period has been shaped by a complex interplay between the public and private sectors. Policymakers have had to deal with a range of policy issues and challenges, while also responding to the changing needs and expectations of customers and operators. During this period, the policy environment has played a key role in shaping policy development, influencing the direction and content of policy and helping to support the continued growth and success of the industry.

Mature
During the maturity phase of the Hong Kong ferry market, the industry evolved to adapt to changing markets, competitive environments and policy values. This period was characterized by a series of experimentation with models and the challenges associated with lock-in and the need for reinvention.

One of the major challenges during this period was adapting to changing market conditions, including changes in customer preferences, demographic trends, and economic factors. In response to these changes, ferry operators introduced new services and routes, upgraded their vessels, and improved the quality of customer service. For example, some operators have introduced high-speed ferries to cater to speed- and efficiency-conscious customers, while others have focused on developing more luxurious and personalized services for high-end customers.

The competitive environment is also an important factor in the maturing phase of the ferry market. The industry faces increasing competition from other modes of transportation, such as buses, trains and automobiles. This required a focus on improving the speed, reliability and convenience of ferry services in order to remain competitive. Policy also played a role in the development of the ferry market during this period. Policymakers placed greater emphasis on sustainability and environmental protection, leading to the adoption of new technologies and practices to reduce the industry's carbon footprint. For example, some operators have begun to introduce hybrid or electric vessels to reduce their reliance on fossil fuels and improve their environmental performance. (Tsoi & Loo, 2021)

However, the ferry industry's ability to adapt and transform itself was significantly limited during this period. Many of the policies, infrastructure and organizational structures established during the birth and growth phases of the market became entrenched and difficult to introduce significant changes. For example, the standardized routes and schedules established in the early stages of the industry are difficult to modify or replace, even as customer needs, and competitive conditions change.

For these problems, adapting the ferry model to better serve the needs of today and tomorrow is also a way to innovate. One possibility is to focus on developing more sustainable and environmentally friendly services, such as introducing new low-emission vessels or exploring alternative fuels. Another opportunity is to use digital technology to improve the efficiency and convenience of ferry services, such as introducing mobile ticketing and real-time update services.

Thus, the Hong Kong ferry market has reached a mature stage and due to the development of other modes of transport, a number of attempts are required to adapt to the changing market, competitive environment and policy values.

Birth
Since its establishment in 1968, according to the official data of Hong Kong Ferry Company. Due to the problem of the early historical development of Hong Kong ferries and the fact that there are many Hong Kong ferry companies, so the data is not accurate. The S-Curve fits the real data probably relevant to reality. According to historical books and records we can find the early development pattern of Hong Kong ferries, in the war era before 1960, the number of passengers taking ferries was chaotic and numerous, the number of Hong Kong ferry passengers in the infancy period was not much, but after 1960, Hong Kong developed rapidly, industrialization and modern equipment were complete, ferries as one of the important transportation modes to communicate between Hong Kong Island and Kowloon, the number of passengers also increased dramatically, in In the short decade of 1955-1965, the number of ferry rides increased by 100 million.

Growth
The two decades between 1970 and 1990 were a period of growth for Hong Kong ferries, when social development stabilized, urban construction intensified rapidly, and the number of ferry riders was on the rise.

Mature
After 1995, the development of Hong Kong ferries entered a mature stage, as ferry ride times were slow compared to car bridges, and other modes of transportation partially replaced the ferries. Ferry ridership begins partial decline.

Conclusion
The development of transportation has been influenced by a combination of political, environmental, and technological factors. Although ferries are slow and with the completion of the Hong Kong Cross Harbour Tunnel and the development of road bridges, Hong Kong ferries have developed vigorously in modern times mainly as a means of tourism, with some commuting being an integral part of the journey as well.

In Hong Kong, an important phenomenon is the continuous decline of ferry passenger traffic. There are two main reasons for this: Poor service levels and stronger competitors. New roads, bridges and tunnels serve buses and, to some extent, railroads. Firstly, there is no need to promote ferries in a free market environment; What's more, ferries have the best safety record and ferries can only relieve some of the traffic congestion and demand for waterways, which is one of the characteristics of Hong Kong. (Ceder, 2006)


text:
Fractals/Iterations in the complex plane/pperturbation

Parabolic perturbation of a root point is a way of peturbating this root into certains other nearby roots

=Description= "Near a non-degenerate 1-parabolic point z0, the orbits are attracted towards z0 on one side and repelled away on the other side. The parabolic basin of z0 is an open set containing z0 on the boundary and occupies most of area near z0. So the local dynamics is relatively simple. However, once perturbed, it becomes the source of rich and delicate bifurcation phenomena. The points in the basin of unperturbed map can now escape through the “gate” between the bifurcated fixed points, thus new recurrent orbits may be created. These “new” orbits depend extremely sensitively on the perturbation, and this causes a drastic change of dynamics or the discontinuity of Julia sets. Also the perturbation into certain direction, such as z0 turning into irrationally indifferent fixed point (i.e. |λ| = 1 but λ is not a root of unity), can create highly recurrent behavior, which leads into delicate questions, e.g. the linearizability problem or Cremer Julia sets which are not locally connected."

=Perturbation= Take a root point with rational internal argument $$ t = \frac{p}{q}$$. It has 2 equal simple continued fraction expansions ( representations):

$$ x = t = [a_1, a_2, a_3, ..., a_n] = [a_1, a_2, a_3, ..., a_n -1, 1]$$

where
 * internal argument $$ t $$ is a proper fraction: $$ t < 1$$ so first term $$ a_0 $$ is equal to zero: $$ a_0 = 0$$
 * when $$b_n = 1$$ for all $$n$$ the expression is called a simple continued fraction

For any n smaller then then length of the expansion ( using one of the 2 equal expansions)

$$ x_n = [a_1, a_2, a_3, ..., a_n] $$

is th n-th convergent of x. The convergents are ordered as follows:

$$0 < x_2 < x_4 < \ldots < x_{2m} < x < x_{2m+1} < \ldots < x_3 < x_1 \le 1 $$

First order

 * type 1 and 2 = on the hyperbolic component ( parent component)
 * type 3 and 4 = on the satellite ( child component)

type 1 on the main cardioid

 * take first ( canonical) cf expansion (with odd length) of t
 * add one denominator a ( natural number):

$$ x = t = [a_1, a_2, a_3, ..., a_{n-1}] $$ $$ x_n = t'(a) = [a_1, a_2, a_3, ..., a_{n-1}, a] $$

Note:
 * length of the expansion $$ x_n$$ is even: n = 2*m where m is a positive natural number
 * rotation number is a bit less then t: $$ t'(a) < t $$
 * $$ t'(a) \nearrow t \quad as \quad a \to +\infty $$

Examples

Fat Basilica Julia set
 * $$ x  = t = \frac{1}{2} = [2] = 0.5$$ and c = -0.75
 * $$ x_2 = t'(a) = [2, a] $$
 * $$ x_2 = t'(5) = [2, 5] = \frac{5}{11} = 0.4545454545454545$$ and c = -0.690059870015044  +0.276026482784614 i. Root point of the wake 5/11
 * $$ x_2 = t'(10) = [2, 10] = \frac{10}{21} = 0.4761904761904761$$ and c = -0.733308614559099 +0.148209926690813 i
 * $$ x_2 = t'(100) = [2, 100] = \frac{100}{201} = 0.4975124378109453$$ and c = -0.749816792870443 +0.015628223336210 i
 * $$ x_2 = t'(1000) = [2, 1000] = \frac{1000}{2001} = 0.4997501249375312$$ and c = -0.749998151299478 +0.001570009708645 i

How to compute t in Maxima CAS ( here ona should add a0 term): (%i3) c:[0,3,5]; (%i7) c5:cfdisrep(c); 1 (%o7)                               - 1                                    3 + -                                         5 (%i8) ratsimp(c5); 5 (%o8)                                -- 16 (%i9) float(c5); (%o9)                              0.3125 (%i10)

type 2 on the main cardioid

 * take second cf expansion ( even length)
 * add one denominator a ( natural number):

$$ x = t = [a_1, a_2, a_3, ..., a_{n-1},1] $$ $$ x_k = t''(a) = [a_1, a_2, a_3, ..., a_{n-1}, 1, a] $$

Note:
 * length of the expansion is odd: k = n+1 = 2*m+1 where m is a positive natural number
 * rotation number $$t$$ is a bit greater then t: $$t < t(a)  $$
 * $$ t''(a) \nearrow t \quad as \quad a \to +\infty $$

Examples

Fat Basilica Julia set
 * $$ x  = t = \frac{1}{2} = [1,1] = 0.5$$ and c = -0.75
 * $$ x_3 = t''(a) = [1,1,a] $$
 * $$ x_3 = t''(5) = [1,1,5] = \frac{6}{11} = 0.5454545454545454$$ and c = -0.690059870015044 -0.276026482784614 i
 * $$ x_3 = t''(10) = [1,1,10] = \frac{11}{21} = 0.5238095238095238$$ and c = -0.733308614559099 -0.148209926690813 i
 * $$ x_3 = t''(100) = [1,1,100] = \frac{101}{201} = 0.5024875621890548$$ and c = -0.749816792870443 -0.015628223336210 i
 * $$ x_3 = t''(1000) = [1,1,1000] = \frac{1001}{2001} = 0.5002498750624688$$ and c = -0.749998151299478 -0.001570009708645 i

Maxima CAS code ( here ona should add a0 term):

(%i4) x3:[0,2,1,5]; (%o4)                           [0, 2, 1, 5] (%i5) cf:cfdisrep(x3); 1 (%o5)                             - 1                                  2 + -                                           1                                       1 + -                                           5 (%i6) ratsimp(cf); 6 (%o6)                                -- 17 (%i7)

Fat Douady Rabbit
 * $$ x = t = \frac{1}{3} = [2,1] = 0.33333...$$ and c = -0.125000000000000 +0.649519052838329 i
 * $$ x_3 = t''(a) = [2,1,a] $$
 * $$ x_3 = t''(5) = [2,1,5] = \frac{6}{17} = $$ and c = -0.232901570671607 +0.639465024433325 i
 * $$ x_3 = t''(10) = [2,1,10] = \frac{11}{32} = $$ and c = -0.182114258418529 +0.646704689279094 i
 * $$ x_3 = t''(100) = [2,1,100] = \frac{101}{302} = $$ and c = -0.131011849556424 +0.649487772656967 i
 * $$ x_3 = t''(1000) = [2,1,1000] = \frac{1001}{3002} = $$ and c = -0.125604257709865 +0.649518736649880 i

type 3 on the period 2 satellite component
Fat Basilica Julia set
 * on main cardioid $$ x  = t = \frac{1}{2} = 0.5$$ and c = -0.75
 * on period 2 component ( internal ray 1/2)
 * $$ t'''(a) = \frac{1}{a} $$ is a root point between period 2 and period 2*a
 * $$ t'''(5) = \frac{1}{5} = 0.2$$ and c = -0.922745751406263 +0.237764129073788 i
 * $$ t'''(10) = \frac{1}{10} = 0.1$$ and c = -0.797745751406263 +0.146946313073118 i
 * $$ t'''(100) = \frac{1}{100} = 0.01$$ and c = -0.750493317892932 +0.015697629882328 i
 * $$ t'''(1000) = \frac{1}{1000} = 0.001$$ and c = -0.750004934785966 +0.001570785991390 i

type 3 on the Douady Rabbit satellite ( period 3 component)
Fat Douady Rabbit
 * on main cardioid: $$ t = \frac{1}{3} = [2,1] = 0.33333...$$ and c = -0.125000000000000 +0.649519052838329 i
 * on period 3 component with root point on the internal angle = 1/3:
 * $$ t'''(a) = \frac{1}{a} $$ is a root point between period 3 and period 3*a
 * $$ t'''(5) = \frac{1}{5} = 0.2$$ and c = -0.035468843775407 +0.713230932890222*I
 * $$ t'''(10) = \frac{1}{10} = 0.1$$ and c = -0.069357410041421 +0.667567542415601*I
 * $$ t'''(100) = \frac{1}{100} = 0.01$$ and c = -0.118968172732931 +0.649711213179649*I
 * $$ t'''(1000) = \frac{1}{1000} = 0.001$$ and c = -0.124395505045425 +0.649520981010889 i

type 4 on the period 2 satellite component
Fat Basilica Julia set
 * on main cardioid $$ x  = t = \frac{1}{2} = 0.5$$ and c = -0.75
 * on period 2 component ( internal ray 1/2)
 * $$ t(a) = -\frac{1}{a} = \frac{1}{1} -\frac{1}{a} = \frac{a-1}{a}$$ where c is a root point between period 2 and period 2*a
 * $$ t(5) = -\frac{1}{5} = \frac{4}{5}$$ and c = -0.922745751406263 -0.237764129073788 i
 * $$ t(10) = -\frac{1}{10} = \frac{9}{10}$$ and c = -0.797745751406263 -0.146946313073118 i
 * $$ t(100) = -\frac{1}{100} = \frac{99}{100}$$ and c = -0.750493317892932 -0.015697629882328 i
 * $$ t(1000) = -\frac{1}{1000} = \frac{999}{1000}$$ and c = -0.750004934785966 -0.001570785991390 i

type 4 on the Douady Rabbit satellite
Fat Douady Rabbit
 * on main cardioid: $$ t = \frac{1}{3} = 0.33333...$$ and c = -0.125000000000000 +0.649519052838329 i
 * on period 3 component with root point on the internal angle = 1/3:
 * $$ t(a) = -\frac{1}{a} = \frac{1}{1} -\frac{1}{a} = \frac{a-1}{a}$$ where c is a root point between period 3 and period 3*a
 * $$ t(5) = -\frac{1}{5} = \frac{4}{5}$$ and c = -0.216358795928715 +0.719846780290728 i
 * $$ t(10) = -\frac{1}{10} = \frac{9}{10}$$ and c = -0.182180023389255 +0.668744570272412 i
 * $$ t(100) = -\frac{1}{100} = \frac{99}{100}$$ and c = -0.131051918394844 +0.649712528934645 i
 * $$ t(1000) = -\frac{1}{1000} = \frac{999}{1000}$$ and c = -0.125604696369978 +0.649520982328093 i

Compare

 * perturbation technique in the deep Mandelbrot zoom
 * the parabolic Mandelbrot set M1 = Mandelbrot set -a^2 plane for function $f_a(z) = z + a + \frac{1}{z}$ having double fixed point of mutiplier = +1 at infinity and critical points at 1 and -1
 * Carsten Lunde Petersen: Dynamics preserving homeomorphism between M1 and M


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Cookbook:Mhadjeb (Algerian Stuffed Flatbread)

Mhadjeb is a type of thin, flaky Algerian pancake made from semolina and traditionally filled with onion, tomatoes, and even meat with harissa. To ensure the dough turns out well, it must be kneaded for a sufficient amount of time. It has been a favored recipe among Algerian households for many years, and the women of Algeria have perfected it. Its appeal comes from its simplicity and economical cost.

Ingredients

 * 1 cup semolina
 * ½ cup all-purpose flour
 * Salt
 * Water
 * 2 tomatoes
 * Vegetable oil
 * 4 onions, sliced thin
 * Black pepper
 * Ground chili pepper

Dough

 * 1) Combine the semolina, flour, and salt together in a bowl. Gradually stir in water with your hands until you get a smooth and soft dough.
 * 2) Wet a plastic bag in warm water, cover the dough while still dripping, and let it rest. Afterwards, uncover the dough and knead lightly for a few minutes.
 * 3) Coat your hands in oil, and shape the dough into balls, arranging them beside each other. Cover and allow to rest once more. These extra relaxation periods help to produce superior results.

Filling

 * 1) Peel the tomatoes, then dice them into small pieces.
 * 2) Heat some oil in a pan over medium-low heat. Add the onions, and stir regularly until they become translucent and soft.
 * 3) Add the diced tomatoes, seasonings, and salt. Cover the pan and allow the mixture to cook over low heat, stirring occasionally to prevent it from sticking.
 * 4) Let cool.

Assembly

 * 1) On an oiled surface, roll out the first ball of dough and give it a light coating of oil.
 * 2) Place some filling in the center, and fold the dough over it on four sides to form a square.
 * 3) Lightly oil the top of the dough and move it to a hot pan over medium-low heat. Cook until the first side is well-browned, then flip it to the other side and brown again. Remove from the pan.
 * 4) Repeat the shaping and cooking process with the remaining dough and filling.
 * 5) Serve hot and enjoy!


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Cookbook:Algerian Chakhchoukha (Vegetable and Flatbread Stew)

Chakhchoukha is an Algerian dish prepared for festive celebrations, consisting of a vegetable stew to which small pieces of flatbread or semolina dough are added. Typically the flatbread is either rougag or trid. There are two types—chakhchoukha from Biskra and chakhchoukha Dfar—which differ in the type of flatbread used. This particular recipe is for chakhchoukha Biskra. The dish often includes or is served with meat, typically lamb, though beef or chicken can also be used.

Ingredients

 * Olive oil
 * 1 onion, chopped
 * 3 cloves garlic, minced
 * Salt to taste
 * Black pepper to taste
 * 1 tbsp paprika
 * 1 tbsp tomato paste
 * 2 tomatoes, grated
 * 2 cups dried chickpeas, soaked and drained
 * Chile pepper (optional)
 * Meat (e.g. lamb, beef, chicken), cubed
 * Water
 * Rougag

Procedure

 * 1) Heat some olive oil in a saucepan over medium heat.
 * 2) Add the onion, garlic, salt, pepper, paprika, and tomato paste, and cook for 5 minutes.
 * 3) Add the tomato, chickpeas, and chili pepper, and cook for 10–15 minutes.
 * 4) Add the meat and enough boiling water to slightly cover everything. Let the mixture cook for approximately 45 minutes, or until the meat and chickpeas are cooked and the sauce is thick.
 * 5) Rip the sheets of rougag with your hands into tiny pieces. Place them in the top of a steamer and steam for 5 minutes, then remove and set aside.
 * 6) Adjust the seasoning of the stew, adding salt if necessary.
 * 7) Place the meat and vegetables over the rougag in a dish, and pour the sauce on top.
 * 8) Serve hot.


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Cookbook:M'semen (Layered Algerian Flatbread)

Algerians are very fond of m'semen, a flatbread made from basic ingredients like flour, semolina, butter, and water. The dough can be sticky to the touch while folding, so oiling the hands is necessary. Some people also fill the pancakes with minced meat and vegetables before frying in oil until they become crisp and golden.

Ingredients

 * 1 cup all-purpose flour
 * 1 cup semolina flour
 * 1 tsp sugar
 * Salt
 * ¼ tsp instant yeast
 * 1 ½ cups warm water
 * Vegetable oil

Procedure

 * 1) Combine both flours, sugar, salt, and yeast in a bowl.
 * 2) Gradually mix in the warm water until you get a soft dough. If it feels too sticky, mix in a little more all-purpose flour. If too dry, mix in some more water.
 * 3) On a lightly-floured surface, knead the dough for 10 minutes or until it is smooth.
 * 4) Divide the dough into smaller pieces, and roll each out into very thin rounds.
 * 5) Brush each dough round with oil.
 * 6) Fold the rounds into square envelope shapes, making 4 folds into the center.
 * 7) Cook each flatbread in a hot, lightly-greased skillet until browned.


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Cookbook:Algerian Potato Fritters (Maaqouda)

Maaqouda, originating from the Maghreb region of Africa, is a simple dish of potato fritters. The name itself, which can be translated as "bound" or "thick", refers to the consistency of the fritter, which can be either enjoyed in its plain form or stuffed with various ingredients such as tuna, ground meat, or cheese. It is especially popular during the month of Ramadan.

Ingredients

 * Salt
 * Potatoes
 * Breadcrumbs
 * Garlic, minced
 * Onion, chopped
 * Cumin
 * Turmeric
 * Parsley
 * Eggs, beaten
 * Pepper
 * Vegetable oil

Procedure

 * 1) Bring a sizable pot of salted water to a boil, then place the potatoes with their skins in the boiling water. Cook for at least half an hour or until they become tender, then drain.
 * 2) Peel the potatoes and mash them.
 * 3) Mix in the breadcrumbs, garlic, onion, cumin, turmeric, parsley, beaten eggs, salt, and pepper. Combine all the ingredients carefully. If the mixture seems too tight, add more breadcrumbs.
 * 4) Shape the potato mixture into 2-inch (5 cm) diameter patties.
 * 5) Pour sufficient oil for deep frying into a large pot, and heat to 350°F (175°C).
 * 6) Lightly coat the patties with flour on both sides. Shake off the extra flour, and deep fry the patties until golden brown on all sides.
 * 7) Remove the maaqouda from the oil, and drain them on paper towels.
 * 8) Serve with freshly-squeezed lemon juice.


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User talk:Jessicaschmitt

--SHB2000 (discuss • contribs) 11:26, 13 March 2023 (UTC)

title: User talk:Jessicaschmitt


text:
User talk:Safeena Haslyn

Cookbook recipe formatting
Hello, and thank you for your contributions to the cookbook! Please note that the procedure for recipes should take the form of numbered, not bulleted, steps based on the style guide. Let me know if you have any questions! —Kittycataclysm (discuss • contribs) 14:26, 13 March 2023 (UTC)

title: User talk:Safeena Haslyn