Is Germanyâs grand coalition the beginning of the end for Angela Merkel ?
Angela Merkel
German Chancellor Angela Merkel  center  with Horst Seehofer  left  the chairman of the Christian Social Union  and Martin Schulz  the leader of Germanyâs Social Democratic Party  in Berlin on Feb. 7. (Hayoung Jeon/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock)
On the face of things  todayâs announcement that Germanyâs two leading mainstream parties have agreed on conditions for a grand coalition comes as a relief. The country has been waiting six long months for a workable government to materialize  and now it finally has one. Supporters of business as usual will be thrilled.  Angela Merkel  will continue to be chancellor  and  she  will go right on running things in the same low-key  low-expectation style  her  people have come to expect.
On closer inspection  though  matters look rather different.  Merkel  emerges from the latest coalition negotiations as a dramatically diminished figure.  She  has been forced to pay an extremely high price to  her  negotiating partners in the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD)  and the rank-and-file among  her  own Christian Democrats (CDU) are unlikely to forget it anytime soon. (Thereâs also the problem that the 460 000 Social Democrats have yet to vote on the coalition agreement  and thereâs a serious chance they wonât approve it.) Gone are the days when  Merkel  could shape the German political landscape as  she  wanted. Even if  she  retains  her  seat as chancellor  the end of  her  era is already in sight.
This is only one of several areas in which Merkelâs weakened position forced her to cede ground to the Social Democrats  who gained control of the crucial finance  foreign  and labor ministries. (The editor of one leading newspaper has archly called it âthe first SPD government led by a CDU chancellor.â) The Christian Democrats managed to retain the defense ministry  whose incumbent  Ursula von der Leyen  is a possible successor to  Merkel .
So  yes   Merkel  will be the chancellor once again. But  her  partyâs disastrous performance in Septemberâs election and the lopsided terms of the coalition agreement have stirred up discontent within the CDUâs ranks  and that unhappiness is likely to make itself felt as soon as  she  begins  her  new term. Meanwhile  many Social Democrats are worried the grand coalition will end up damaging their own party most of all (just as it has in the past  when  Merkel  appropriated many of the Social Democratsâ most popular ideas).
And what about the future? Younger Germans  who have had  Merkel  around for a good portion of their lives  clearly want to see something different. In recent surveys of Germans between the ages of 12 and 25  a whopping 69 percent of them agreed with the sentence âpoliticians donât care what I thinkâ â a sign of deep alienation from the existing system of political parties. (It might have something to do with the fact that the age of Germanyâs average political party member is 60.)
As the AfD challenge shows  never has Germany been more desperately in need of new political ideas. The notion that most Germans are averse to change  and simply want to coast along in a rerun of previous coalitions  is belied by the polls. One recent survey showed that only 51 percent of voters approve of a fourth term for  Merkel   down from 70 percent six months earlier. Forty-six percent oppose a fourth term. If current trends persist  Merkelâs chancellorship is likely to taper into a long  drawn-out whimper of disillusionment.
[TGT] center  with Horst Seehofer  left  the chairman of the Christian Social Union  and Martin Schulz  the leader of Germanyâs Social Democratic Party  in Berlin on Feb. 7. (Hayoung Jeon/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock)
On the face of things  todayâs announcement that Germanyâs two leading mainstream parties have agreed on conditions for a grand coalition comes as a relief. The country has been waiting six long months for a workable government to materialize  and now it finally has one. Supporters of business as usual will be thrilled.   [TGT] will continue to be chancellor  and   [TGT]   will go right on running things in the same low-key  low-expectation style   [TGT]   people have come to expect.
On closer inspection  though  matters look rather different.   [TGT] emerges from the latest coalition negotiations as a dramatically diminished figure.   [TGT]   has been forced to pay an extremely high price to   [TGT]   negotiating partners in the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD)  and the rank-and-file among   [TGT]   own Christian Democrats (CDU) are unlikely to forget it anytime soon. (Thereâs also the problem that the 460 000 Social Democrats have yet to vote on the coalition agreement  and thereâs a serious chance they wonât approve it.) Gone are the days when   [TGT] could shape the German political landscape as   [TGT]   wanted. Even if   [TGT]   retains   [TGT]   seat as chancellor  the end of   [TGT]   era is already in sight.
This is only one of several areas in which Merkelâs weakened position forced  [TGT]  to cede ground to the Social Democrats  who gained control of the crucial finance  foreign  and labor ministries. (The editor of one leading newspaper has archly called it âthe first SPD government led by a CDU chancellor.â) The Christian Democrats managed to retain the defense ministry  whose incumbent  Ursula von der Leyen  is a possible successor to  Merkel .
So  yes    [TGT] will be the chancellor once again. But  her  partyâs disastrous performance in Septemberâs election and the lopsided terms of the coalition agreement have stirred up discontent within the CDUâs ranks  and that unhappiness is likely to make itself felt as soon as  she  begins  her  new term. Meanwhile  many Social Democrats are worried the grand coalition will end up damaging their own party most of all (just as it has in the past  when   [TGT] appropriated many of the Social Democratsâ most popular ideas).
And what about the future? Younger Germans  who have had   [TGT] around for a good portion of their lives  clearly want to see something different. In recent surveys of Germans between the ages of 12 and 25  a whopping 69 percent of them agreed with the sentence âpoliticians donât care what I thinkâ â a sign of deep alienation from the existing system of political parties. (It might have something to do with the fact that the age of Germanyâs average political party member is 60.)
As the AfD challenge shows  never has Germany been more desperately in need of new political ideas. The notion that most Germans are averse to change  and simply want to coast along in a rerun of previous coalitions  is belied by the polls. One recent survey showed that only 51 percent of voters approve of a fourth term for  Merkel   down from 70 percent six months earlier. Forty-six percent oppose a fourth term. If current trends persist  Merkelâs chancellorship is likely to taper into a long  drawn-out whimper of disillusionment.