Trump won and Northam crushed Gillespie. Why believe polls ever again?
Ralph Northam
Once again basing their views on public opinion polls  news reports told us that Republican Ed Gillespie had closed an early gap and might well defeat Democrat Ralph Northam.
MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” convened a Monday panel  asking “Will Gillespie take Virginia?” The screen showed some typical poll numbers:  Northam  ahead 43 percent to 40 percent.
“A lot of smart reporters and commentators  people I respect  were talking about  Northam  blowing it ” said Tom Bonier  chief executive of the polling firm TargetSmart. “The idea was that once again Democrats would be sunk by identity politics.”
Then came election night  and  Northam  not only won but won big.
The race was fairly close but most polls showed  Northam  maintaining a lead of several points. Given the margin of error  that meant Gillespie could have squeaked out a win  or — in the other direction —  Northam  could win comfortably.
Once again basing their views on public opinion polls  news reports told us that Republican Ed Gillespie had closed an early gap and might well defeat [TGT].
MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” convened a Monday panel  asking “Will Gillespie take Virginia?” The screen showed some typical poll numbers:  [TGT]  ahead 43 percent to 40 percent.
“A lot of smart reporters and commentators  people I respect  were talking about  Northam  blowing it ” said Tom Bonier  chief executive of the polling firm TargetSmart. “The idea was that once again Democrats would be sunk by identity politics.”
Then came election night  and  Northam  not only won but won big.
The race was fairly close but most polls showed  Northam  maintaining a lead of several points. Given the margin of error  that meant Gillespie could have squeaked out a win  or — in the other direction —  Northam  could win comfortably.