Causal Lifting of Neural Representations: Zero-Shot Generalization for Causal Inferences
Riccardo Cadei, Ilker Demirel, Piersilvio De Bartolomeis, Lukas Lindorfer, Sylvia Cremer, Cordelia Schmid, Francesco Locatello
In many scientific domains, the cost of data annotation limits the scale and pace of experimentation. Yet, modern machine learning systems offer a promising alternative—provided their predictions yield correct conclusions. We focus on Prediction-Powered Causal Inferences (PPCI), i.e., estimating the treatment effect in a target experiment with unlabeled factual outcomes, retrievable zero-shot from a pre-trained model. We first identify the conditional calibration property to guarantee valid PPCI at population level. Then, we introduce a new necessary ``causal lifting'' constraint transferring validity across experiments,  which we propose to enforce in practice in Deconfounded Empirical Risk Minimization, our new model-agnostic training objective. We validate our method on synthetic and real-world scientific data, offering solutions to instances not solvable by vanilla Empirical Risk Minimization and invariant training. In particular, we solve zero-shot PPCI on the ISTAnt dataset for the first time, fine-tuning a foundational model on our replica dataset of their ecological experiment with a different recording platform and treatment.