From Likelihood to Fitness: Improving Variant Effect Prediction in Protein and Genome Language Models
Charles W J Pugh, Paulina Nuñez-Valencia, Mafalda Dias, Jonathan Frazer
Generative models trained on natural sequences are increasingly used to predict the effects of genetic variation, enabling progress in therapeutic design, disease risk prediction, and synthetic biology. In the zero-shot setting, variant impact is estimated by comparing the likelihoods of sequences, under the assumption that likelihood serves as a proxy for fitness. However, this assumption often breaks down in practice: sequence likelihood reflects not only evolutionary fitness constraints, but also phylogenetic structure and sampling biases, especially as model capacity increases. We introduce Likelihood-Fitness Bridging (LFB), a simple and general strategy that improves variant effect prediction by averaging model scores across sequences subject to similar selective pressures. Assuming an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck model of evolution, LFB can be viewed as a way to marginalize the effects of genetic drift, although its benefits appear to extend more broadly. LFB applies to existing protein and genomic language models without requiring retraining, and incurs only modest computational overhead. Evaluated on large-scale deep mutational scans and clinical benchmarks, LFB consistently improves predictive performance across model families and sizes. Notably, it reverses the performance plateau observed in larger protein language models, making the largest models the most accurate when combined with LFB. These results suggest that accounting for phylogenetic and sampling biases is essential to realizing the full potential of large sequence models in variant effect prediction.