Back in August, when Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump began consulting with Roger Ailes and hired Breitbart CEO Stephen Bannon to head his campaign, it was widely seen as Trump’s first move in shifting his focus away from actually running for president and instead leveraging his name into a media empire. His son-in-law Jared Kushner’s recent overtures to LionTree, a bank with a history of media investments, has only furthered that speculation.  But what if a Trump News Network is just one part of the master plan? What if, in addition to a new Trump media empire, he’s preparing his followers to coalesce into a brand-new Trump political party?  There are historical analogues that point toward to the short-term viability of the idea. Despite the fact that our two-party system has had a lock on electoral politics since the 1790s, there have always been third parties – this year there are 22 presidential candidates on the Colorado ballot.  The 1850s saw the rise of the American Party, better known as the “Know Nothings,” that were staunchly anti-immigrant and anti-Catholic. In 1856, their standard bearer, former president Millard Fillmore, garnered 22% of the vote.  The danger in a new Know Nothing party under Trump isn’t that he’ll run again – though that’s the certainly not off the table – it’s the damage they might do in the 2018 midterm elections.  Trump has convinced his most ardent supporters that this year’s presidential contest is rigged. Well, in 1876, the election actually was rigged, and the aftermath of that contest sheds light on what could happen in America in the next few years.  The 1876 election pitted New York’s Democratic governor, Samuel J Tilden, against Rutherford B Hayes, the former Republican governor of Ohio. On election night, some southern states, including Florida and Louisiana, tried to throw the election to Hayes, even though it was clear that Tilden was winning. Moreover, when the electoral college met in December, three states submitted fraudulent returns, which meant that neither candidate had a majority. Ultimately, a special Election Commission voted 7-6 along party lines to appoint Hayes to the presidency.  Not surprisingly, there was widespread disgust both with the election and “the seemingly endless procession of scandals emanating from the nation’s capital”. This could easily describe the mood of voters today on both sides of the aisle.  Two years later, in the 1878 midterm elections, Americans showed their dissatisfaction with “politics as usual” by voting in 13 members of the populist Greenback Party to the House of Representatives. The party hoped to reform both the American financial system and the country’s labor laws. While 13 congressmen doesn’t seem like many, it was nearly 14% of the national vote. Not only did both Democrats and Republicans lose seats – the rise of the Greenbacks meant any hope Hayes had of gaining traction in congress was lost.  More recently, look at the reaction in 1964 after Lyndon Johnson cruised to an unprecedented victory over Barry Goldwater. Republican stalwarts complained that the press had been biased against Goldwater from the start, and many pundits saw LBJ’s victory as the death knell for the Republican party.  But a funny thing happened in the midterm elections of 1966. Rather than repudiate Goldwater conservatism, the Republicans used it to increase their power in Congress. While they didn’t capture control of either chamber from the Democrats, enough Republicans were elected to put the brakes on Johnson implementing his Great Society programs.  Picture what could happen in 2018 if a Trump Party – its voters fueled by a 24-hour-a-day Trump News Network – makes significant inroads in the House. It will make the Tea Party’s resistance to Barack Obama seem tame by comparison. The Tea Party, at its heart, is about Constitutional originalism and has generally operated within the framework of the Republican party.  A Trump Party will have no such strictures. Since Donald Trump doesn’t seem to understand the Constitution or care about the Republican brand, it’s likely a Trump Party won’t have any qualms about simply blowing up Washington and watching it burn – while all of it is gleefully covered on Trump News.  Some have argued that Trump’s presidential campaign is damaging his brand. But that’s only true if his goal was to return to being a real estate developer/reality TV host after the election.  Imagine a Trump Party that first makes significant inroads in 2018 in congress, and then runs a presidential candidate in 2020 – could this third party candidate restrict Hillary Clinton to just one term? Both Rutherford Hayes and Lyndon Johnson declined to seek renomination. Could a Trump Party make it so difficult for her to govern that she simply throws in the towel?  If that’s the case, Trump will have vaulted himself from being a New York City real estate tycoon to a major figure in American political history. And while politics in Washington will grow even more polarized, Trump’s legacy will be secured, which is the only thing he truly cares about.
A ‘Trump Party’ would secure his legacy far into the future while allowing his supporters to assert their views outside Republican strictures