Louisville, Ky.Mint juleps aren't the only thing to make on this, the first Saturday in May: It's also time to make order out of chaos.  It's been a long, strange trail to the 137th Kentucky Derby, which gets underway Saturday (6:24 on NBC). The prep races have seen upset after upset. Several strong contenders have dropped out, and on Friday, last year's two-year-old champ Uncle Mo was scratched with a gastrointestinal infection. The rains, intense as they've been, may still return.  Since there's no easy, clear favorite, this is the sort of year that those of us who consider ourselves once-a-year railbirds need to do some actual research. If you're not careful, this can become a life-warping vortex of hours vaporized on the Internet.  With 19 horses in the field, the most rational way to pick a Derby horse is to whittle the field down by eliminating the horses who have the most compelling arguments against them. Here we go:  The Kentucky Derby is 10 furlongs on a dirt track, and it can be unfamiliar for horses who typically run on synthetic or grass. Surface isn't the only reason to toss a horse, but you've got to start somewhere. Master of Hounds has no experience racing on dirt, though he does have a top-notch trainer in Aidan O'Brien. Animal Kingdom has run four races, none on dirt. His only graded stakes win was on the synthetic surface of Turfway Park. As his trainer, Graham Motion told the AP: "This horse has a grass pedigree, but I think if he's a good enough horse he can overcome that."  Brilliant Speed ran his first two races on dirt, but he really started to perform on turf. He won the Blue Grass Stakes—on a synthetic track. Prior to that, he raced on the turf at Gulfstream Park. The dirt Churchill Downs will be his third surface in as many races. Blue Grass runner-up Twinspired also has limited dirt experience: In his only race on dirt, he came in eighth. He wouldn't be here if so many other horses had not dropped out of the Run for the Roses.  What you need to know about Midnight Interlude is that he didn't race as a two-year old. He did win the Santa Anita Derby, but the two favorites (Premier Pegasus and Jaycito) scratched. Racing reporters describe him as "lightly raced" or "lightly regarded." But he's trained by Bob Baffert and ridden by Victor Espinoza. And he's 10-1.  Mismanagement is the case against Santiva: He's had at least three different trainers and five different jockeys. He's not a bad horse, but even with an enviable post position of No. 12, his odds are 30-1.  No single factor can predict a winner, but the Beyer Speed Figures are a handy, numerical resource. Created via a complicated system devised by racing columnist Andrew Beyer, the figures are like stereotypes: usually, there's a reason  Derby contenders typically have Beyer figures well over 100. But in this field without Uncle Mo, only Soldat registered a triple-digit figure (103). So plenty can be crossed off your list because of their sluggish ratings. Watch Me Go's top Beyer was 84. Stay Thirsty, Decisive Moment, Shackleford and Derby Kitten have all topped out between 89-93. Twice the Appeal has only reached 89, but at least he will be ridden by three-time Derby winner Calvin Borel.  With the run for the roses coming up, sports reporter Reed Albergotti goes to Lexington, Ky., and gets a lesson in riding a thoroughbred from legendary Derby-winning jockey Chris McCarron.  Comma to the Top comes to the Derby with the most career starts (13), though no graded stakes wins in 2011. He did finish second by a nose in the Santa Anita Derby (on dirt), but, again, that field was suddenly weaker. Trainer Peter Miller was initially not going to run him in the Derby. His pedigree favors shorter distances. Pants on Fire has been running on dirt and has a dirt pedigree, but he comes into Derby without having raced in six weeks. He wasn't really a contender until he won the Louisiana Derby, which was a surprise victory over Mucho Macho Man and Nehro. He does have a way of landing on the board.  There's safety in numbers, but somehow favorites and buzz-generating horses seem to repel actual winning. The current favorite is Dialed In, who is trained by two-time Derby winner Nick Zito. In his four races, Dialed In has finished first three times and second once. He's a late closer who has a burst of speed and then gets ahead and stays there. Conventional wisdom says that the lead cannot be held for the full 10 furlongs. He's a dirt horse. His pedigree is tops with Mineshaft. His highest Beyer figure is 97. What's not to like? Maybe that's why he's the favorite.  Likewise, Nehro (also sired by Mineshaft) draws eye-rolls and comments like "Everyone likes that horse." He's attracting attention because he could be a late bloomer—or just too late. He's had five starts; his first and only win was his third race—a mile—as a three-year old. He raced only once as a two-year old. But he did have two second finishes in 9-furlong races: Arkansas Derby and Louisiana Derby.  I can only maintain sober quantitative analysis for so long. It's time to get irrational and just name horses I can envision in the winner's circle.  The horse that I would like to see win is Archarcharch. But he's stuck at No. 1, right up against the rail. With a top Beyer figure of 98, he comes to the Derby with six races—three of them first-place finishes. I liked the way he won the Arkansas Derby; from out of nowhere, he made a smooth, steady move to the stretch and showed a huge burst of speed to win it. Maybe he can't sustain it for the 10 furlongs. Maybe he'll get boxed in along the rail. He's 10-1. It could happen.  In the underdog category, I'm rooting for Soldat. Out of eight career starts, he won three and showed in four. He's versatile: On turf, he came in second at the Breeder's Cup Juvenile Turf and he's won on dirt twice. His three races in 2011 were all 9 furlongs; he won two. He had a bad loss at the Florida Derby, but that one's viewed as a fluke. His top Beyer is 103, he's at post position 17 and he's 12-1. The only real concern is that he's a speed horse, not distance. I'd feel more confident if it rains Saturday, but either way, I like him.  But in the end, there's really only one. I love the gutsiness of Mucho Macho Man and his trainer. At the Louisiana Derby, he came in third—after losing a shoe at the start. He's run 9-furlong races twice. He's had eight starts and only once has not been in the top three finishers. His sire, Mucho Uno, didn't shine at 10 furlongs, but his sire, Holy Bull, was a Travers Stakes winner in 1994. He's a late foal, but trainer Kathy Ritko responds to that concern with this: "He has only gotten better." Ritko knows about gutting it out: she went through a heart transplant in 2008.
With Plenty of Dropouts, the Field of the 137th Kentucky Derby Is Wide Open—Making Research All the More Important