The corruption trials of Dean G. Skelos and Sheldon Silver, the former leaders of New York’s Legislature, deepened voters’ distrust of state government, and prompted public demands for root-and-branch ethics reform when lawmakers return to Albany next year.  But for the Democratic and Republican leaderships, there is a more immediate concern: Mr. Skelos’s conviction has left his politically moderate Senate district on Long Island unrepresented.  Political strategists were already gearing up to do battle for control of the Senate, even before the trial and conviction of Mr. Skelos, the former Republican majority leader. His party has only the barest of majorities in the chamber, which is its only toehold on political power statewide.  The jury’s verdict two weeks ago suddenly accelerated the pace — and raised the stakes — of the 2016 elections. An off-season race to replace Mr. Skelos would keep corruption front and center as a political issue, with the multimillion-dollar contest serving as a framework for the larger 2016 debate around ethics.  Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo, a Democrat, has not yet announced plans to call a special election, but party leaders are preparing for a vote early in the spring. (The governor has indicated he was likely to set an election for the Assembly seat vacated by Mr. Silver, the Manhattan Democrat and former speaker, in April, perhaps coinciding with New York’s presidential primary.)  Democrats, viewing Mr. Skelos’s seat as an early 2016 prize, have eagerly leapt into action. They are wooing Assemblyman Todd Kaminsky, a former federal corruption prosecutor, to run for the seat, and party strategists believe he is likely to join the race.  Mr. Kaminsky acknowledged on Wednesday that he had been asked about his intentions to seek the seat, and said he was “seriously considering it.”  “At a time when Long Island needs Albany to be hard at work for them, the corrupt Skelos machine has been hard at work for themselves,” he said in a statement. “We need change and honest leadership — and we need it now.”  On the Republican side, the picture is far hazier: Party leaders have spoken to several possible recruits, and Senator John J. Flanagan, who succeeded Mr. Skelos as majority leader, has conferred with local Republicans in Nassau. But no one potential candidate stands out as an obvious first choice.  The overriding imperative, Republicans say, is to find a candidate free of even the slightest ethical stain. That may not be so simple in Nassau County, where Mr. Skelos lorded over local politics from his perch in the Senate. The county’s powerful Republican machine has recently drawn the attention of prosecutors, who have scrutinized contracting practices under Edward P. Mangano, the Republican county executive.  United States Representative Peter T. King, a Long Island Republican, said he had spoken with the Nassau County Republican leader, Joseph N. Mondello, about the need to enlist a candidate of unquestioned integrity.  Only an utterly spotless recruit, Mr. King said, would be able to make the case to voters that Republican control of the State Senate benefits Long Island.  “We’re going to be held to a different standard, the highest standard, because of what happened,” Mr. King said. “There’s no room for error. There’s no room, even, for question marks.”  Two local officials, Bruce A. Blakeman, a Hempstead councilman, and Denise Ford, a Nassau County legislator, said party leaders had asked them to consider the race. Republicans have also spoken with Assemblyman Brian Curran.  Corruption scandals have battered both parties in Albany, with Mr. Silver and Mr. Skelos as the most recent and flagrant case studies. But because of the political map in 2016, the issue is likely to prove far more challenging for Republicans next fall.  Democrats hold the State Assembly by a huge margin, while Republicans control the State Senate with only a slim and cobbled-together majority. The Republican party depends on moderate, suburban districts, like the one Mr. Skelos represented, to keep power.  Just 31 of 63 Senate seats are occupied by Republican lawmakers. One additional senator, Simcha Felder of Brooklyn, was elected as a Democrat but caucuses with the Republicans. (Five Democratic lawmakers have also broken away from their party to sit as a separate group, the Independent Democratic Conference.)  If outrage about corruption is pervasive statewide, recent polling suggests it may be even more acute in the suburbs: In a recent Siena College poll, 54 percent of suburban New York voters said they were less likely to re-elect their own legislators because of recent corruption scandals, about 10 percentage points more than the share of rural and New York City voters who said the same.  Senator Michael N. Gianaris of Queens, who heads the Senate Democrats’ campaign committee, said he expected a debate over government ethics to dominate the race to succeed Mr. Skelos.  “Corruption and the poor ethical culture in Albany will be front and center for the voters,” Mr. Gianaris said. “If they want the dramatic change that’s necessary, it’s the Democrats that will bring that.”  Any conceivable Republican nominee, he said, “would be out of the Skelos machine and will have been ushered into politics at Skelos’s knee.”  Mr. Skelos’s legal problems have already been used against Nassau County Republicans, to toxic effect. In a district attorney election last month, the Democratic candidate, Madeline Singas, ran television ads pledging to attack graft and showing her popular Republican opponent shaking hands with Mr. Skelos, who was then awaiting trial.  Mostly unknown to voters at the start of the race, Ms. Singas won by 16 points. The corruption issue was a “devastating message,” said Isaac Goldberg, Ms. Singas’s campaign manager.  Still, Republicans have proved remarkably adept at maintaining their grip on the Senate, despite New York’s solidly blue political hue. The party has aggressively exploited divisions within the Democratic ranks, peeling off lawmakers like Mr. Felder and, at times, allying with the Independent Democratic Conference.  Last year, Republicans captured an outright majority in the Senate, in part by linking Democratic candidates around the state to Mayor Bill de Blasio of New York, a polarizing figure who campaigned for a Democratic majority.  “We fully expect to hold this seat and grow our majority in 2016,” said Scott Reif, a spokesman for the Republican majority in the Senate.  Just last month, the party easily won a special election in the state’s conservative Southern Tier, which had previously been held by Thomas W. Libous, the second-ranking Senate Republican until he was convicted in July of lying to the Federal Bureau of Investigation.  Mr. Skelos’s seat is more difficult turf for Republicans. Party strategists cite a few reasons for optimism: They believe Mr. Kaminsky, the likely Democratic candidate, remains relatively undefined in the district, giving Republicans room to recruit a winsome alternative of their own.  And a special election that coincides with the presidential primary could be helpful to Republicans, since Democrats are likely to settle on their presidential nominee well before New York votes on April 19. The Republican nomination fight may drag on longer, and help drive conservative voters to the polls.  Some Republicans took issue with the notion that Mr. Skelos would prove to be an anchor around the neck of the party’s eventual candidate for the Senate.  Howard J. Kopel, a Nassau County legislator who represents part of the Skelos district, stressed that corruption was not a one-party issue.  “You say Skelos, I say Silver,” Mr. Kopel, a Republican, said. He added of Mr. Skelos, “He did what he did, apparently, but his record in terms of helping the people of this district was good.”  A version of this article appears in print on December 24, 2015, on page A15 of the New York edition with the headline: Stakes Raised for State Senate Seat . Order Reprints| Today's Paper|Subscribe
Republican leaders say only a spotless recruit can make the case to Long Island voters that Republicans should retain their slim majority in the State Senate.