The result underscored the apparent stabilization of the economy, and gave several chains the confidence to increase their earnings projections.  “Let the retail recovery begin!” the International Council of Shopping Centers, an industry trade group, said in a report.  That may be a pervasive sentiment across a retail industry that has been battered in the last year, but the numbers suggest that retailers are not out of the woods yet.  The improvement in September sales came largely because the stores had easier year-over-year comparisons. For the first time this year, retailers were comparing their sales with the abysmal numbers they began posting last fall, when the markets virtually collapsed. Stores also benefited from a calendar shift that pushed Labor Day, as well as the usual back-to-school shopping rush, later in September.  “You want to be careful how much you’re reading into the improved numbers,” said Michael McNamara, vice president for research and analysis at SpendingPulse, an information service by MasterCard Advisors that estimates sales for all forms of payment, including cash, checks and credit cards.  In an interview, Mr. McNamara explained that in a sector like jewelry, for instance, sales increased 1.2 percent in September from September 2008. But the dollar volume of sales “is still about 5 percent lower than we were in September 2007 and about 10 percent lower than the sector was in September 2006,” he said.  Stores are gearing up for the critical Christmas shopping season, but most industry consultants and economists are predicting flat sales at best. The National Retail Federation, an industry group, is forecasting a 1 percent decrease in sales for November and December.  The general belief among industry professionals is that until the job market improves, consumers will continue to pinch pennies. In September, the unemployment rate reached 9.8 percent, up from 9.7 percent in August.  September is considered the heart of the back-to-school shopping period, yet teenage clothing was the worst-performing category, with several major retailers turning in weak numbers. Sales at stores open at least a year, a measure of retail health known as same-store sales, fell at Abercrombie & Fitch (down 18 percent), American Apparel (down 15 percent), Wet Seal (down 4.5 percent), Hot Topic (down 4 percent) and Zumiez (down 0.8 percent).  Sales at Gap were down 1 percent, though the company’s value-priced Old Navy division posted a 13 percent increase, its best monthly figure in five years.  Same-store sales at Limited Brands, which owns Victoria’s Secret and Bath & Body Works, rose 1 percent.  In general, the top teenage chains were those that have been faring well for the last few months, including Aéropostale, where sales climbed 19 percent, and Buckle, where sales rose 5.1 percent.  Department stores, by and large, are still hurting. Sales declined at Dillard’s (down 6 percent), Stein Mart (down 5.4 percent), Bon-Ton (down 4.8 percent), J. C. Penney (down 1.4 percent), and Macy’s (down 2.3 percent).  Nordstrom posted a 2.4 percent decline, though that was better than its upscale peers, Neiman Marcus and Saks, which again posted double-digit declines. At the specialty retail segment of Neiman Marcus, which includes Neiman Marcus stores and Bergdorf Goodman, sales fell 17.6 percent.  As expected, discount chains outperformed the rest of the industry. Sales at Costco were up 4 percent, not including gasoline and excluding the impact of foreign exchange rates. At BJ’s Wholesale Club, sales were up 5.5 percent, not including gasoline. Target, the most upscale of the nation’s big-box discounters, fell 1.7 percent.  Clothing retailers that offer upscale brands at a discount also stood out. At TJX Companies, which owns T. J. Maxx and Marshalls, sales increased 7 percent. A TJX competitor, Ross Stores, posted an 8 percent increase.  Michael Balmuth, the president and chief executive of Ross Stores, suggested he might get what every retailer wants for Christmas: “For the important holiday period,” he said in a news release, “we continue to project a comparable-store sales gain of 5 to 6 percent.”  A version of this article appears in print on October 9, 2009, on Page B1 of the New York edition with the headline: Ailing Stores See a Hint Of Buoyancy. Order Reprints| Today's Paper|Subscribe
Several stores reported better-than-expected results, but the comparison is to a year ago when business collapsed because of the financial meltdown.