Donald J. Trump’s proposal to bar Muslim noncitizens from entering the United States, at least temporarily, does not appear to be broadly popular with Americans. But exactly how unpopular it is depends on what question a pollster asked, and possibly on whether a human or a machine asked it.  Here are six survey questions asked by pollsters in the last week, and the results they found.  NBC NEWS/WALL STREET JOURNAL “Recently, Donald Trump has called for a total and complete shutdown for any Muslim being allowed to enter the United States. Do you favor or oppose this proposal or do you not have an opinion one way or the other?” 25 percent favor, 57 percent oppose. (-32)  CBS NEWS “Do you think the U.S. should temporarily ban Muslims from other countries from entering the United States, or not?” 36 percent support, 58 percent oppose. (-22)  ABC NEWS/WASHINGTON POST “Trump has proposed banning Muslims who are not U.S. citizens from entering the United States for the time being. He says this would improve security against terrorism. Others say security would not be improved, and it’s wrong to bar people from the United States because of their religion. What’s your opinion — would you support a ban on Muslims entering the United States, or do you think this would be the wrong thing to do?” 36 percent support, 60 percent oppose. (-24)  BLOOMBERG/PURPLE STRATEGIES “This week, Donald Trump called for a temporary ban on all Muslims who are citizens of foreign countries from entering the United States. Do you favor or oppose this proposal?” 37 percent favor, 50 percent oppose. (-13)  YOUGOV “Do you agree or disagree that there should be ‘a total and complete shutdown of Muslims entering the United States until our country’s representatives can figure out what is going on’?” 45 percent agree, 41 percent disagree. (+4)  RASMUSSEN REPORTS “Do you favor or oppose a temporary ban on all Muslims entering the United States until the federal government improves its ability to screen out potential terrorists from coming here?” 46 percent favor, 40 percent oppose. (+6)  Three of these surveys (by NBC, ABC and CBS) found strong opposition. They used people to ask the questions over the phone. NBC’s poll did not even find majority support among Republicans, though ABC and CBS (which specified that the ban would be temporary) did.  The other three surveys (Bloomberg, YouGov and Rasmussen Reports) didn’t require respondents to talk to a person — they were conducted online or (in Rasmussen’s case) through automated phone interviews. These surveys found more support for and less opposition to a ban. Two of them actually found more supporters than opponents.  As Ariel Edwards-Levy noted at Huffington Post, the machines could be responsible for two effects: Respondents may be more willing to express socially unacceptable views to a machine than to a person, or automated polls may simply be reaching a differently composed population of respondents.  There are also issues of how the questions were framed. NBC, which found the weakest support for the ban, was the only organization that did not specify that the ban would be temporary. YouGov and Rasmussen, which found the most favorable views toward the ban, not only said it would be temporary but also specified an endpoint (“until our country’s representatives can figure out what is going on”/”until the federal government improves its ability to screen out potential terrorists”).  YouGov and Rasmussen, which got the most positive response for a ban, also happened to omit mention of the candidate behind the proposal. But then, so did CBS, which still found strong opposition to the idea.  So where does that leave us? It’s impossible to look at this set of polls and figure out how the public “really” feels. That’s not a novel problem when polls try to get at people’s attitudes about issues, which tend to get caught up in frames. Public opinion polling on the Affordable Care Act, for example, is heavily influenced by how its provisions are described, and whether they are associated with President Obama.  The varying results highlight the challenge of polling today, especially about issue positions.
Many pollsters have sought to gauge the public view on this issue in recent days, and the varying results highlight a challenge in polling.