Image by Getty Images via @daylife  Osama’s career has come to a crashing halt. Does that mean Obama’s career won’t?  Once the news came out that Osama bin Laden had been killed by U.S. troops in Pakistan, there was immediate speculation about how the successful mission would affect President Obama’s tanking poll numbers. Would this be the boost he needs to win the war on terror and the next election?  I think the short answer is no—to both questions.  The action will certainly give his current approval ratings a needed boost; and in this case it would be a much-deserved boost. There were risks, both military and political, in authorizing a covert action in Pakistan and the president took them. He should be commended. More importantly, the Navy SEALs who put boots on the ground should be commended. They risked their lives and made us proud.  But there is one thing that anyone who has dealt with U.S. politics for very long knows: the voters’ memory can be short.  Just consider President George H.W. Bush. When Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait in August 1990, the U.S. led a UN-sanctioned coalition force that freed Kuwait in February 1991. Prior to the invasion, Bush’s approval ratings averaged in the 60 percent range, according to the Gallup polling firm.  In the subsequent months, those ratings jumped an average of 27 percentage points, to 87 percent. I remember thinking in the spring of 1991, a year and a half from the 1992 election, that no one would be able to beat Bush. But … euphoria soon passed away and the issues surrounding the struggling economy came roaring back.  President Bush broke his “no new taxes” pledge and agreed to a Democratic demand to raise taxes, including taxes on the rich. And even though the country entered a recession, it only lasted six months; the economy was recovering months before the 1992 election that put Bill Clinton in the White House.  A mere 18 months before the 1992 presidential election President Bush had a nearly a 90 percent approval rating. And yet that wasn’t enough to save him from defeat at the hands of a very flawed Democratic candidate whose marital struggles and serial philandering—remember the Gennifer Flowers’ tapes and her subsequent “spread” (so to speak) in a men’s magazine—would have tanked almost any presidential candidate.  Yes, there were other factors involved. Bush didn’t seem like he really wanted to win. And Vice President Dan Quayle’s continued missteps and verbal gaffes certainly didn’t help. (Hmmm, that actually sounds a lot like Vice President Joe Biden.)  Bush’s reneging on his “no new taxes” pledge cost him his base, leading to a serious challenge within his own party from Pat Buchanan and an even more serious challenge from businessman Ross Perot.  President Obama has similarly been undermining his base. But at this point, I don’t think Obama will face a Democratic challenge. It’s early and a challenger could emerge, but I don’t get the impression the Obama machine would tolerate such actions.  And we don’t know yet how the terrorists will respond to the killing of bin Laden. If they decide to retaliate and launch a successful terrorist attack, that could affect how the public perceives the killing of bin Laden. On the one hand, the public would likely unite, much as they did after the 9-11 attack, and even rally around the president. Unless, of course, it emerges that the attack was successful because U.S. intelligence dropped the ball somehow.  But at least for now we can be thankful: to the special ops forces who successfully carried out the mission, to the ancillary forces and military commanders who long planned the mission, and to the Obama administration for a job well done.  Now Congress has to get back to the task of passing a budget, cutting spending and getting the country’s fiscal house back in order. (See my article from last week for an extended discussion.) That challenge will make the memory of this weekend’s victory, great as it was, fade quickly. And the public will soon remember why the president’s poll numbers were so low just last week.  Merrill Matthews is a resident scholar with the Institute for Policy Innovation in Dallas, Texas.
President Obama will get a much-needed bump in the polls from Osama bin Laden's death, but economic issues will decide his reelection.