Remember when Black Friday, so-called because historically retailers become profitable that day, was actually on Friday? Well, we don’t either, and neither, it seems, do retailers.  The rule breaking began with Wal-Mart, which has held miniature Black Friday sales every weekend of November, in a brazen attempt to rearrange the holiday shopping calendar — and, of course, to steal business from its competitors. Every Friday morning since Nov. 2, it has offered door-buster discounts starting at 6 a.m.  Now, seemingly everyone is following suit. Toys “R” Us has held door-buster sales every Friday and Saturday this month (including one this morning, starting at 7 a.m.)  Kmart will open at 7 a.m. on Thanksgiving this year and, on Black Friday, J. C. Penney is opening an hour earlier than last year, at 4 a.m.  Stores will reward the early birds with food. CompUSA is offering pumpkin pie on Thanksgiving night and several malls are serving Maxwell House coffee at 6 a.m. on Black Friday. One retailer, Best Buy, is having none of it. The chain is closed on Thanksgiving and opening at the comparatively reasonable hour of 5 a.m. on Friday morning.  Brian Lucas, a company spokesman, said the chain “believes this is the right thing to do for our customers, who have come to think of Black Friday morning as somewhat of a tradition to start the shopping season, and to our employees, who value having time with their families on Thanksgiving day.”  BE YOUR OWN ROCK STAR The toy industry wants to turn every child under 10 into a self-made rock star, with a genuine guitar in one hand and a video game version in the other.  As if in lock step, every major toy maker — like Hasbro and Mattel — has put a guitar-based game in its product lineup and every big retailer has put those products on its top 10 toy list.  The companies say they are piggybacking on the runaway success of Guitar Hero, the video game guitar system; the popularity of Hannah Montana, the rock star television character; and the enduring strength of the reality show “American Idol.”  “Whenever a trend is as hot as this, a lot of people come up with the same idea,” said Neil B. Friedman, the president of Mattel Brands.  He should know. This holiday season, the Fisher-Price unit of Mattel is rolling out the I Can Play Guitar System ($100), for children 6 and older, a mock guitar that hooks up to a television. Users learn to play by matching color-coded hand positions on the screen to those on the toy guitar.  Hasbro is introducing the Power Tour Electric Guitar ($70), which teaches users to play 12 preloaded songs or plug in an MP3 player and strum along to a favorite song. There are touch sensors in place of the strings, though.  For the less dexterous, Tech2Go is marketing American Idol Talent Challenge ($50), a guitarless DVD-based game that resembles karaoke. Players can sing up to 12 preloaded songs on the game’s microphone, then wait for an unvarnished review from “American Idol’s” hosts: Simon Cowell, Randy Jackson and Paula Abdul.  And, of course, there is the latest iteration of Guitar Hero, called Legends of Rock, for PlayStation, Xbox or Wii video game systems. The technology, from Red Octane, remains unchanged: users try to match notes on a guitar with those on the screen.  The only downside to the new toys? Kids might actually want to grow up to be rock stars, with all the baggage that entails. The chief executive of Toys “R” Us, Gerald L. Storch, is unperturbed. “What could be more wholesome than music?” he said.  THE ELECTRONIC COMPASS For five years, two electronics, the MP3 player and a flat-screen television, have owned the holiday shopping season, dominating the covers of brochures from big chains like Best Buy, Wal-Mart and Circuit City.  This year, those technologies have met their match: portable G.P.S. systems, which can be used in cars, on bicycles and for hiking.  “G.P.S. will be the technology of the holiday season,” Ronald Sargent, the chief executive of Staples, predicted in an interview.  The reason is that prices for the units, which use three-dimensional screen images and verbal commands to direct users from one location to another, have fallen to $200 for the cheapest models, down from $1,000 several years ago.  The once-bulky devices have also shrunk, to three to five inches in width. And now that cab drivers and rental car agencies have started using the systems, thousands of consumers are seeing the devices in action — and want one of their own.  Major retailers are stocking a variety of models, but the brands may sound unfamiliar: Garmin, Mio, Tom-Tom and Magellan. (Sorry, Sony and Apple are not big players in the G.P.S. business.)  The popular Garmin Nüvi 680 Personal Travel Assistant ($800) has a color screen that adjusts its brightness to sunlight and offers real-time information on weather conditions, traffic reports, gas prices, even local movie times.  A more affordable version is made by Moi. The C230 Portable G.P.S. Navigator ($200) offers turn-by-turn directions, announced by the system, and warnings when the driver is speeding.  Andre Sam, who manages a Best Buy store on the Upper East Side of Manhattan, said G.P.S. “has really picked up in popularity,” adding: “The flat-panel TVs have been done. This is the gift for the person who already has everything.”  A MARTHA CHRISTMAS This year’s most highly anticipated retail face-off is Martha Stewart vs. Martha Stewart.  The domestic diva turned law breaker turned rehabilitated talk- show host is the subject of dueling marketing campaigns at Kmart and Macy’s, where she has designed two strikingly similar home décor lines.  And we mean similar. The names? The Martha Stewart Collection (at Macy’s) and Martha Stewart Everyday collection (at Kmart). The prices? A towel at Macy’s for $7.99 and a towel at Kmart for — you guessed it — $7.99.  Kmart came first, of course, in 1997, with Martha Stewart Everyday, a best-selling line of sheets, towels and dishes. But troubles have befallen Kmart since it merged with Sears, and Ms. Stewart’s company, vexed with the chain’s poor performance, struck a deal for a higher-end line with Macy’s, much to Kmart’s regret.  Macy’s print and television marketing blitz for the Martha Stewart Collection began this fall and, not to be outdone, Kmart reintroduced the Martha Stewart Everyday collection about the same time.  Bill Stewart (no relation), the chief marketing officer at Kmart, said the chain needed to revamp the Martha line to “reclaim our rightful place as the leader for price and value in the home department.”  A result is that Ms. Stewart’s face is plastered across newspaper circulars, TV screens and telephone booths across the country.  Which line does Martha favor? Officially, she loves all her children equally. But in September, Ms. Stewart brought the audience from her TV show up to Macy’s Herald Square store in Manhattan for a tour of her new product line. She did not, however, make a similar pilgrimage across the avenue to the Kmart store on 34th Street.  No matter, said Mr. Stewart. “What we see, from our consumer research, is that there is much more knowledge that Martha Stewart is at Kmart” than at Macy’s.  MERRY MARKDOWNS What is bad for retailers — a tough economy — is good for bargain hunters, in stores and online.  After the weakest fall shopping season in a decade, retail analysts predict the return of deep desperation discounts this holiday. The worse a store’s performance, the steeper the markdowns.  Here are the chains with weak sales so far: Macy’s, Nordstrom, Abercrombie & Fitch, Chico’s, Ann Taylor, and Limited, the owner of Express and Victoria’s Secret.  In a reversal from years past, reliable price slashers like Gap and Aéropostale have cut their orders, anticipating a slowdown, so discounts will be sparse.  “But don’t kid yourself,” said John D. Morris, an analyst at Wachovia Securities, “it is still going to be a more promotional Christmas season.” Mr. Morris, who keeps a running tally on discounts, says markdowns are already up more than 7 percent this holiday season over last year, “and rising fast.”  The big online discount this season is free shipping, with no conditions, for many Web sites the Monday after Thanksgiving, known as Cyber Monday, because consumers return to work from a weekend of mall browsing and buy online.  This year, an estimated 25 percent of Web retailers will offer free shipping, no matter how small the order, on Nov. 26. Among them are Joann.com, the Web site of Jo-Ann Fabrics and Crafts; HSN.com, the home shopping network Web site; and Giftcertificates.com, a site that sells gift cards from hundreds of stores.  Most retailers provide free shipping for orders $50 or higher. Doesn’t it seem that stores lose money on $10 online orders, shipped from New York to California?  “The number of sales it generates more than offsets the cost of free shipping,” said Laura Thorpe, the e-commerce manager for marketing at Bealls, a department store offering no-condition free shipping next Monday on its Web site, www.Bealls.com
For all the dour economic predictions, Americans will still mob the malls this holiday shopping season in search of the right gift at the right price. Here’s a guide to five likely trends.