Now, as Americans cope with the worst economy in a generation, heading to Wal-Mart is an automatic reflex for many of them, and it is showing up in the company’s numbers.  Stephen Quinn, Wal-Mart’s chief marketing officer, said the brand had resonated with consumers this year. “We know that Mom’s not going to cancel Christmas,” he said. “We’re committed to cutting the cost of Christmas. It’s what we do.”  Wal-Mart is expected on Thursday to report a sales increase for October. Gains are likely to be modest by the company’s standards — but in an economy slowing fast, with many other retailers reporting double-digit sales declines, any gain is an achievement.  In September, sales at Wal-Mart and the company’s Sam’s Club stores open at least a year, known as same-store sales and a measure of retail health, increased 2.4 percent, not including fuel sales, compared with 1.4 percent for the same period last year. The majority of other retailers had abysmal sales.  Ken Perkins, president of Retail Metrics, a research firm, predicted that Wal-Mart would have a nearly 2 percent increase in same-store sales for October. And the holiday will be, Deutsche Bank analyst Bill Dreher declared, “a Wal-Mart Christmas.”  Mr. Perkins said, “It’s going to be a primary destination for a lot of people who may not have gone there in recent years, but who will elect to go there for the price and the value.” He added that Wal-Mart would gain “at the expense of a Toys ‘R’ Us and other more traditional toy retailers.”  Wal-Mart’s intention to outperform every other retailer this holiday season led it to open its Christmas shop, an area in its stores, in early October. The retailer also promised to have the lowest prices in the marketplace: Barbie dolls and Hot Wheels sets for $10, and packs of Christmas tree ornaments for $5.  Wal-Mart executives said more than once at the Bentonville meeting that they did not want to sound arrogant. But they acknowledged feeling positive about their company right now. “I sleep very well at night,” said Eduardo Castro-Wright, president and chief executive of Wal-Mart’s United States operations.  Few retailers are sleeping as soundly. Many have withdrawn their earnings guidance and privately uttered the word “bloodbath” to describe their expectations for the holiday season.  “No doubt the October sales numbers will be disappointing,” said Kimberly Greenberger, an analyst with Citigroup.  That is probably putting it kindly. In the last week, analysts cut their already conservative October same-store sales forecasts. Mr. Perkins expects a drop of at least 9 percent in October same-store sales for department stores, which are deeply reliant on discretionary spending. Saks Fifth Avenue and Nordstrom will most likely have double-digit declines, he said.  All of the factors that analysts have identified as hurting October sales at most retailers — unemployment, declining stock prices, the credit crisis, dreary headlines — helped drive shoppers to discounters. In fact, while Wal-Mart is far and away the biggest retailer likely to benefit, some others could have gains for October, including BJ’s Wholesale Club, Costco and Big Lots.  Wal-Mart executives point out that the company’s success is not entirely a consequence of hard times. Wal-Mart spent the last three years decluttering aisles, shortening checkout lines and cleaning up stores, efforts it celebrated at its annual shareholder meeting in June.  Mr. Quinn said Wal-Mart recognized that families were hurting, and it saw an opportunity to connect with consumers who might previously have passed Wal-Mart by.  “Nobody has to shop at Wal-Mart,” he said. “We have to earn their trust, and we’re very aware of that.”  A version of this article appears in print on , on Page B1 of the New York edition with the headline: Wal-Mart Stands Apart as a Holiday Contender. Order Reprints| Today's Paper|Subscribe
Even as financial turmoil has cut into sales at many stores, it sent consumers into the arms of Wal-Mart.