This has been another summer of unwelcome headlines for the NFL. On 23 June, the Cleveland linebacker Ausar Walcott was charged with attempted murder following a brawl in a bar; three days later, the New England Patriots tight end Aaron Hernandez was arrested on suspicion of shooting a man dead. Both men were promptly released by their teams, and Hernandez has been indicted on a first-degree murder charge.  In total, more than 30 players have been arrested since Super Bowl XLVII. Sports Illustrated's Peter King noted that the league's representatives were statistically less likely to get into trouble with the law than the average citizen – but high-profile cases such as that of Hernandez do the league's image no favours.  Nor, indeed, do reports of the NFL interfering with the plans of a major broadcast partner. A piece in the New York Times claimed that pressure from the league might have led ESPN to end their association with Frontline, a TV documentary series which was a few weeks away from airing two pieces looking at the NFL's handling of head injuries.  The long-running concussion lawsuits battle finally (well, almost) came to a close when the NFL and 4,500 former players reached a $765m settlement. There is still some way to go for that saga to be concluded and how it will play out in other areas of the sport and whether this deal is a good thing, but the league has at least acted.  Despite it all, the excitement at a new season remains undiminished. Six months on from Baltimore's triumph over San Francisco in New Orleans, fans want to know if the Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco was worth that $120m contract, and how the beaten 49ers will respond. Will the read-option offense continue to gain traction? Can last year's superstar rookie quarterbacks – Robert Griffin III, Russell Wilson and Andrew Luck – avoid sophomore slumps?  We will look at those questions over the next two days – starting here with a team-by-team preview of the AFC. Tomorrow we will do the same for the NFC, as well as naming our pick for Super Bowl XLVIII.  Teams listed in order of projected finish  No team has dominated its division more thoroughly over the last decade. AFC East champions in nine of the past 10 seasons, the Patriots finished second to the Miami Dolphins in 2008 only by virtue of a tie-breaker. Tom Brady missed that entire season after blowing out his knee in the season opener, but the Patriots still won 11 games without him.  The quarterback was back in a knee brace this summer, after spraining the joint on his left leg during training camp, but his injury was quickly overcome. The same cannot be said for tight end Rob Gronkowski, who underwent surgery on his back and forearm in the summer and is questionable miss the start of the season. His absence, combined with the release of Hernandez and the free-agency departures of Wes Welker, Brandon Lloyd and Danny Woodhead, mean that Brady starts the year without all of his top five receivers from last year. New arrival Danny Amendola can pick up some of the slack, but he is also known for been injury prone. There is no Tim Tebow in the roster any more either but the Patriots will probably survive. This will be a year of transition for New England, but as long as Brady remains healthy, they should still be the strongest team in a weak division.  The Dolphins were this year's biggest spenders in free agency, leading some analysts to conclude that they were ready to challenge New England. But are they, really? The offensive line was strengthened by the arrival of Tyson Clabo at right tackle yet also weakened by the departure of four-time Pro Bowler Jake Long at left tackle. Coaches have been impressed with rookie running back Lamar Miller, but he will have to produce nearly 1,300 total yards to outperform his predecessor, Reggie Bush.  This team will be solid on defence, especially if first-round pick Dion Jordan can add to an already menacing pass rush. But in the end their hopes of challenging New England rest on the progress of second-year quarterback Ryan Tannehill – who will at least have a true No1 target to throw to this year, in Mike Wallace.  Will Buffalo even have a healthy quarterback come opening weekend? There was supposed to be an open competition for the starter's job between first-round draft pick EJ Manuel and free-agent acquisition Kevin Kolb. The former is recovering from a minor knee surgery, while the latter suffered a concussion that could end his career altogether.  Manuel has not given up hope of recovering in time for week one, but if not the reins will be turned over to the undrafted rookie Jeff Tuel – a man who did not even have a Wikipedia page until Monday afternoon. Running back CJ Spiller can carry this team so far, but an injury-disrupted preseason has provided a less-than-ideal platform for the team's new coaching staff.  Jets fans celebrated when second-round draft pick Geno Smith was named as their starting quarterback for the preseason game against the Giants. Never again would they have to witness Mark Sanchez fumble the ball after running into his own team-mate's backside. Instead, Smith treated them to three interceptions and a panicked flight out the back of the end zone.  It appears that they are stuck with Smith now, though, after Sanchez injured his shoulder later in the same game. The rookie will have better days, and could yet turn out to be the future of this franchise. But for now the present is a messy place to be.  Cincinnati posted the same regular-season record as Baltimore last year. While the Ravens went on to win it all, the Bengals never even made it past the wild-card round.  The pieces are in place, though, for this team to keep getting better. Cincinnati had a young roster last season and no key pieces have been removed. Instead, the offense will benefit from the additions of their top two draft picks, Tyler Eifert and Giovani Bernard. The former is a rangy tight end who can also line up at receiver, while the latter is an explosive scatback who will catch passes out of the backfield.  Last season the Bengals were guilty of being one-dimensional in the passing game, relying too heavily on the wide receiver AJ Green. If they can spread the burden more effectively, a division title could be within reach.  No Super Bowl champion had ever lost more than five starters before the start of the following season. Baltimore are down eight so far. Some of that turnover is for the better; Ray Lewis was a vocal leader for this team but after 17 years his effectiveness was in steep decline. (And even his team-mates are beginning to concede that his pep-talks were incomprehensible.  Harder to replace will be wide receiver Anquan Boldin. With tight end Dennis Pitta likely to miss most – if not all – of the regular season through injury, quarterback Flacco has now lost two of his favourite targets. Torrey Smith will take over as the No1 receiver, but the spot opposite him is up for grabs. The defense will be unfamiliar, but Elvis Dumervil was a fine addition to the pass rush.  Baltimore have not missed the playoffs since John Harbaugh took over as head coach, in 2008. Even if their roster has been weakened, they will not go down without a fight.  The AFC North has sent at least two teams to the playoffs in each of the last six years, and it is not inconceivable that three teams could emerge from the division this time around. Pittsburgh have enough talent to be competitive, but injuries remain a problem. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has not played a full 16 games since 2008, and will be playing behind a less familiar offensive line after Max Starks and Willie Colon left in free agency.  Le'Veon Bell, drafted in the second round to strengthen the team's rotation at running back, is expected to miss a significant chunk of the season with a foot injury, but on the other side of the ball there is better news. Safety Troy Polamalu, who missed most of last season with a calf problem, has shown flashes of his best self in preseason. His health would be a considerable boost to a defense that missed him badly last year.  In the 10 years since they last went to the playoffs, the Browns have averaged just 5.2 wins per season. They have finished bottom of the AFC North eight times, and only once posted a winning record. Will this be the year when they turn that all around? Probably not, but they are taking steps in the right direction.  New defensive co-ordinator Ray Horton is an astute appointment, whose performance in Arizona last year was obscured by the Cardinals' offensive calamities. A rotation of Jabaal Sheard, Paul Kruger and first-round draft pick Barkevious Mingo at outside linebacker ought to ensure a ferocious pass rush – though the latter will miss the start of the season with a lung injury. On offense, it is up to the second-year quarterback Brandon Weeden to show he belongs at this level.  For a No1 overall pick, Andrew Luck did a decent job of flying under the radar last season. The Colts quarterback generated his fair share of headlines, of course, as he steered his team to the playoffs, yet his story still played second fiddle to those of Robert Griffin III and Russell Wilson – explosive running quarterbacks operating out of trendy read-option offences.  Luck himself is no slouch, as he showed in rushing for 255 yards and five touchdowns, but he will be happy to stay tucked within the pocket this season, if the Colts can improve their blocking up front. He was sacked 41 times as a rookie, but will hope for better protection from new team-mates Gosder Cherilus and Donald Thomas, as well as running back Ahmad Bradshaw – an exceptional pass blocker at his position.  If Luck does stay upright, he might just drag this team to a division title. His composure and field vision are of a rare order for one so new to this league.  On paper, the Texans look better than the Colts. The front office addressed one of this team's few areas of weakness in the draft, selecting DeAndre Hopkins in the first round to play opposite Andre Johnson at wide receiver. They also added the nine-time Pro Bowl safety Ed Reed to an already accomplished defence.  So you can put this ranking down to a hunch, a looming sense that this season is just not going to go as it was supposed to for the Texans. Perhaps it is the fact that both Reed and running back Arian Foster have missed time with injury this preseason – the former undergoing hip surgery and the latter struggling with back pain that extended down into the tops of his legs. Or maybe it is the lingering sense that quarterback Matt Schaub is just not as good as his team need him to be.  Chris Johnson rushed for 1,243 yards last season – on an average of 4.5 per carry – despite playing behind what was widely regarded as one of the worst run-blocking offensive lines in the league. The Titans will be expecting big things out of their running back, then, after upgrading that unit with this year's 10th overall draft choice, Chance Warmack, as well as free agent Andy Levitre.  Not enough, though, has been done to shore up a porous defence. When this team gives up points, it will fall to quarterback Jake Locker to drag them back into games. Through his first two years in the game, the former first-round draft pick is yet to convince fans that he can.  The Jaguars are not about to contend for a playoff spot, but they might be a little more competitive than some people expect in their first year under Gus Bradley. Jacksonville's 2012 season was heavily affected by the absence of running back Maurice Jones-Drew, who skipped training camp while holding out for an improved contract, and then missed the last 10 games of the year due to injury. In the six games he did play, Jones-Drew averaged 4.8 yards per carry.  Third-year quarterback Blaine Gabbert, still just 23, was also showing some signs of improvement before a hairline fracture to the thumb of his throwing hand ruled him out of the last two weeks of preseason. With a number of rookies expected to go straight into the line-up on both sides of the ball, this will be a rebuilding season, but more than doubling last year's win total is an achievable target.  No sooner was Super Bowl XLVII in the books, than Von Miller guaranteed a Denver victory at Super Bowl XLVIII. His confidence was understandable. The Broncos might have won it last time around were it not for an improbable Hail Mary pass from Joe Flacco to Jacoby Jones in the dying seconds of their divisional playoff game against Baltimore.  Miller, though, will be suspended for the first six games of the season after violating the league's substance-abuse policy. That is a blow in itself – Miller led the Broncos with 18 sacks last season – but it is compounded by the loss of Elvis Dumervil – who was second on the team with 11 sacks, and left in free agency after failing to find a fax machine in time to extend his contract with Denver.  None of it should be enough to stop Denver from winning the division. The Broncos still have Peyton Manning at quarterback, after all, and possibly the best receiving trio in the league – Demayrius Thomas, Eric Decker and Wes Welker. But any early season slip-ups could still be costly if they cost the Broncos a playoff bye further down the line.  A year ago, the Chiefs were mooted as potential division winners; instead they wound up with the worst record in the league. The sense remains that this team is talented enough to do better, and especially with a new quarterback. Alex Smith has his limitations, but he is more reliable than most. Last season he completed more than 70% of his passes in San Francisco before losing his job to Colin Kaepernick while recovering from a concussion.  Better yet, they also have a new coach. Despite leaving on a low note, Andy Reid posted a 58.5% winning percentage in 14 years with the Philadelphia Eagles. Most Chiefs fans would be happy just to see their team steered back in the direction of parity.  There has been a coaching change in San Diego, too, where the Norv Turner era is finally over. This team has consistently underachieved in recent years, but as Philip Rivers approaches his 32nd birthday it is no longer clear how good we should expect the Chargers to be. The quarterback's performances have dipped in the last two years, but it is hard to throw accurate passes when you are constantly being flattened by defenders.  San Diego made some gesture towards addressing their shabby offensive line play by drafting offensive tackle DJ Fluker in the first round, but they needed to do more. Wide receiver Danario Alexander, who became a key part of the offence last year after joining in mid-season, tore his anterior cruciate ligament this month and is out for the season. New head coach Mike McCoy will have his hands full just trying to match 2012's seven wins.  The Raiders have spent this offseason clearing house. They have released a number of highly paid, underachieving veterans – among them Richard Seymour, Darrius Heyward-Bey and Michael Huff – but as a consequence left themselves very little room to manoeuvre.  When NFL teams release a player they are obliged to pay up any remaining guaranteed money in their contract – and also to count that sum against this year's salary cap. The Raiders have nearly $50m in "dead money" this year, leaving them only a little more than $70m to spend on players who will actually feature on their roster.  As a consequence, Oakland will have 12 new starters this year, many of them young and inexpensive. If such talent is used well, this could be the year in which foundations are laid for future success. But either way, this team cannot be expected to win an awful lot of games over the next five months.  Division winners: New England Patriots, Cincinnati Bengals, Indianapolis Colts, Denver Broncos.  AFC Wildcards: Baltimore Ravens, Houston Texans.  AFC Championship game: Denver Broncos over New England Patriots.
NFL 2013 preview: Super Bowl champions Baltimore are depleted, so expect Cincinnati to top North and Denver to take conference crown