George Washington entered the final three weeks of the regular season perched in the conversation for one of the final spots in the NCAA tournament. The Colonials (20-7, 9-5 Atlantic 10) own some quality victories, a few lamentable losses and a decent overall profile.  What Mike Lonergan’s bunch does not enjoy is a whole lot of wiggle room thanks to a remaining schedule lacking many opportunities to considerably bolster its stock.  [Full bracket projections: Maryland is a No. 4; Xavier joins No. 1 seeds (for now)]  Avenge an earlier loss to Richmond on Wednesday? Well, that’s what the Colonials are supposed to do if they’re serious contenders for an at-large berth. Lose to the Spiders? That’s a fourth loss to a team outside the top 100 in the Ratings Percentage Index.  Beating rebuilding-but-feisty George Mason next week to complete a Revolutionary Rivalry sweep provides little benefit beyond bragging rights, while a loss would be even more damaging than falling to Richmond a second time. And in the big picture, while a top-100 triumph at Davidson would also enhance the Colonials’ road record, it would provide only a modest bump.  So that leaves two serious opportunities. The second is the Atlantic 10 tournament, where the Colonials’ spotty overall depth and nearly nonexistent reserve options in the post hinder the potential for a deep run. There’s a lot to like about a veteran bunch led by Tyler Cavanaugh, Patricio Garino, Kevin Larsen and Joe McDonald, but it isn’t a team constructed to play on consecutive days.  In short, a run in Brooklyn might be asking too much of this group, which leaves Saturday’s visit from Virginia Commonwealth as the Colonials’ optimal chance to improve their profile over the final weeks of the season.  [For Shaka Smart, everything’s bigger in Texas, if not always better]  George Washington’s profile is largely set at this point. It is a decent team away from home, and the earlier victory at VCU helps immensely. Its attempt to pack the schedule with lower-tier foes from the American, Big East and Big Ten was crafty, but fizzled a bit since Central Florida, Rutgers and South Florida linger outside the top 200. DePaul isn’t much better, though it should be noted the December defeat of Seton Hall looks better by the day.  The Colonials are lingering right on the edge of the field, in a cluster with the likes of Alabama, Butler, Cincinnati, St. Bonaventure and Vanderbilt. With the right schedule, a team can leap out of this jumble in a hurry; Vanderbilt, with its win at Florida on Tuesday and date with Kentucky on Saturday, is a candidate to do just that.  George Washington isn’t substantially better or worse than any of them (though head-to-head losses to Cincinnati and St. Bonaventure make such comparisons troublesome), but it needs to exploit its remaining chances to create separation while also avoiding missteps. That’s the case for everyone this time of year, but when there are far fewer opportunities for the former than the latter the path to the field of 68 can be uncomfortably narrow.  [Atlantic 11 readers’ poll: Virginia bumps Maryland from top spot]  ELSEWHERE IN THE DMV …  Of the teams on the top six lines of this morning’s projection (basically, the teams with the 24 best profiles), only two own a loss to an opponent outside the top 200 of the RPI: Maryland (at Minnesota) and Dayton (at La Salle).  Last week’s setback in Minneapolis is a differentiator of the wrong kind, and while it is almost certainly an aberration, it doesn’t help the Terrapins (23-5, 11-4 Big Ten). In the end, it might cost Maryland a seed line, and at this point, it probably won’t be the difference between a No. 1 and No. 2 seed.  The Terps enjoy the benefit of two useful road games (Purdue and Indiana) and the Big Ten tournament down the stretch. Pegged as a No. 4 seed at the moment, it’s starting to look like the most realistic outcome for Mark Turgeon’s team is within a line of that, with slightly better or worse scenarios existing for a season-ending hot streak or a freefall, respectively.  Since Jan. 5, Georgetown is 2-9 against opponents not named DePaul or St. John’s. And that sort of sums things up the Hoyas (14-14, 7-8 Big East), who close out the regular season against Butler, Marquette and Villanova.  If by some turn of events Georgetown wins out to close the regular season, it would have a decent profile for a 17-14 team. But it would still be 17-14, and still in dire need of a deep run at the Big East tournament.  With Monday’s loss to Miami, Virginia clinched a losing record in true road games for the regular season. No team since at least 1994 has finished with a sub-.500 road record and earned a No. 1 seed, but Virginia could be the trend-breaker if it finishes strong with defeats of North Carolina and Louisville to go with a conference tournament title. Chalk that up as context for how weird this year is from start to finish.  The Cavaliers (21-6, 10-5 ACC) have no other issues on their resume. They’ve beaten plenty of good teams, faced a good schedule and have only one borderline-crummy loss to their name (at Virginia Tech). It would take a surprising nose dive for this team to fall any further than a No. 3 seed at this point.  Melvin Johnson and Virginia Commonwealth seem back on track after consecutive losses. The Rams (20-7, 12-2 Atlantic 10) have won three in a row and reclaimed the conference lead entering their two-game swing to the D.C. area this week.  VCU owns a good-but-not-great profile for an at-large bid, and the best thing it can do is roll up victories to create as much of a cushion as it can. Losses to George Mason and Davidson would be ill-advised, but the trips to George Washington and Dayton are particularly important. Winning at George Washington would have the added benefit of damaging another team close to the edge of the field.  James Madison (20-9, 10-6) and William and Mary (18-9, 10-6) remain plausible candidates to win the roulette wheel that is the Colonial Athletic Association tournament. They meet Saturday in a game that could have some seeding implications for the league tourney, which begins March 4 in Baltimore.  Both Hampton (16-9, 11-2) and Norfolk State (14-14, 10-3) have clinched byes into the quarterfinals of the Mid-Eastern Athletic tournament. Hampton leads South Carolina State (16-12, 11-3) by a half-game for first place in the league. …  Mount St. Mary’s (13-16, 10-6 Northeast) can lock up a home game in the conference quarterfinals with a victory over either Fairleigh Dickinson (Thursday) or St. Francis of Brooklyn (Saturday). With two victories and one Sacred Heart loss this week, the Mountaineers would be assured of home court through at least the league semifinals. … Navy (18-11, 9-7) remains in the hunt for a quarterfinal home game in the Patriot League tournament. It visits American (9-18, 7-9) and entertains league leader Bucknell this week.  [The Final Five, Part 4; New York’s oldest program has never felt March Madness]
George Washington isn't built for a deep run in the Atlantic 10 tournamnet, which makes a game vs. VCU its best chance improve a tournament portfolio that's already largely set.