Updated as of 11:00am EST on Tuesday, October 30:  Real Clear Politics (RCP) is consistently cited by both FOXNEWS and NBCNEWS as a current source for reliable averaged polling data at every level of American politics.  RCP continues to consider the following eleven states, listed in descending order of electoral votes, as "toss-up": Florida (FL), Pennsylvania (PA), Ohio (OH), Michigan (MI), North Carolina (NC),Virginia (VA), Colorado (CO), Wisconsin (WI), Iowa IO), Nevada (NV) and New Hampshire (NH).  With only 157 hours left in the 2012 presidential campaign, Obama leads in seven of the toss-ups, Romney leads in two, and in CO and VA as of Saturday the candidates are now tied.  In descending order of 'percentage of lead' in favor of Obama, followed in ascending order of 'percentage of lead' in favor of Romney, here are the published averaged numbers from RCP as of 11:00am EST today together with the FiveThirtyEight election night probability of victory for either candidate:  In PA, with 20 electoral votes, Obama's lead is holding at 4.7%.  FiveThirtyEight currently gives Obama a 94.2% chance of winning PA.  In MI, with 16 electoral votes, Obama's lead is holding at 4.0%.  FiveThirtyEight currently gives Obama a 98.1% chance of winning MI.  In NV, with 6 electoral votes, Obama's lead is holding at 2.4%.  FiveThirtyEight currently gives Obama an 79.7% chance of winning NV.  In WI, with 10 electoral votes, Obama's lead is holding at 2.3%.  FiveThirtyEight currently gives Obama an 85.7% chance of winning WI.  In IO, with 6 electoral votes, Obama's lead is holding at 2.3%.  FiveThirtyEight currently gives Obama a 70.9% chance of winning IO.  In NH, with 4 electoral votes, Obama's lead is holding at 2.0%.FiveThirtyEight currently gives Obama a 70.3% chance of winning NH.  In OH, with 18 electoral votes, Obama's lead is holding at 1.9%.  FiveThirtyEight currently gives Obama a 73.3% chance of winning OH.  In VA, with 13 electoral votes, the race remains tied.  FiveThirtyEight currently gives Obama a 57.8% chance of winning VA.  In CO, with 9 electoral votes, the race remains tied.  FiveThirtyEight currently gives Obama a 55.4% chance of winning CO.  In FL, with 29 electoral votes, Romney's lead has fallen to 1.3%, down from yesterday's 1.4%.  FiveThirtyEight currently gives Romney a 64.7% chance of winning FL.  In NC, with 15 electoral votes, Romney's lead is holding at 3.0%.  FiveThirtyEight gives Romney an 81.4% chance of winning NC.  For Obama to win re-election, the least complex route appears to be through maintaining his current lead in the four toss-up states in which his existing margins are widest, PA, MI, NV, and WI, together with OH where his lead has been hovering at a vulnerable 2.0% for the past few days. Doing so would bring his electoral vote total on Election Day to 271. In this scenario, Obama could still surpass 270 while failing to hold either IO or NH.  However, should Obama fail to hold OH, the loss could effectively be neutralized by any of the following combination of wins from states where FiveThirtyEight is currently predicting Obama victories:  Path #1: Obama loses OH but wins IO, NH, and CO resulting in 272 electoral votes.  Path #2: Obama loses OH but wins IO and VA resulting in 272 electoral votes.  Path #3: Obama loses OH but wins CO and VA resulting in 275 electoral votes.  However, regarding Path #1, there is some question as to the accuracy of the RCP polling numbers in NH which still include in their average a recent 'outlier' finding from UNH which had Obama leading by a questionable 9.0%.  For Romney to unseat Obama, he not only would have to hold the two states in which he presently leads, FL and NC, bringing his electoral vote total to 235, but also steal victories in CO where his lead fell from 0.4% onFriday to that of dead heat, in VA where his lead fell from 1.0% on Saturday to another dead heat, and finally with OH where Obama's lead this morning is 1.9%. By so doing, Romney's electoral vote total would reach 275.  Should Romney take CO and VA but fail to take OH, he could overcome this shortfall by stealing WI and either IO or NH, resulting respectively in an electoral vote total of 273 or 271.  FiveThirtyEight, at present, estimates the chance of Election Day victory for each candidate as follows: Obama 72.9% - Romney 27.1%.  FiveThirtyEight also projects that on Election Day the final electoral tally will be as follows: Obama 295 -Romney 243.  Lastly, although it makes no difference in terms of the final result which can only be determined by the Electoral College, FiveThirtyEight also projects a national popular vote distribution on Election Day as follows: Obama 50.3% - Romney 48.8%.  With only 157 hours of campaigning left, this one may come down to the wire….and to the October jobs report which because of Hurricane Sandy may be delayed from a scheduled Friday release to the following Monday, one day before the election.  Let's hope that Election Day is free of both voter fraud and voter intimidation and that eligible voters who have registered in good faith over the past six months are in fact able to vote on November 6; let's also hope that vote tabulation itself is performed honestly and accurately by both the election commissions and private corporations to whom this essential role is being entrusted.  In any case, it will be interesting to watch as election night unfolds.
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