A broad rally that has swept up the prices of global stocks, U.S. junk bonds and industrial commodities alike over the past month comes with an unusual asterisk: It has been accompanied by a rally in less-risky investments such as gold and the Japanese yen and broad stability in rich-country government bonds.  This is an unusual configuration that has investors and analysts scratching their heads and wondering what the market’s next turn will be. Some say we could start to see the beginnings of an outline of that shift in coming days, when the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve and the Swiss National Bank all are due to meet, with potentially significant decisions at hand.  The moves underscore the uncertainty surrounding global economic growth and the outlook for asset prices at a time of both expansive monetary policy and an epic commodity bust. The market disturbance that sent the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 10% for the year at its trough in February has reminded investors of the risks of stock investing after a seven-year-long rally, but low returns still are prompting many investors to hunt for better-returning assets.  “We are in the weirdest type of market,” said Vadim Zlotnikov, chief market strategist at AllianceBernstein, noting that the U.S. doesn’t appear to be moving into a recession but it also is unclear what is going to drive growth.  He said some of the recent moves, such as gold’s gains, reflect investors’ concerns around unconventional monetary policy such as negative interest rates in Japan and Europe. When such measures influence the direction of markets as much they have lately, “the investment setting becomes less predictable,” Mr. Zlotnikov said.  For example, the yen fell by double-digit percentages every year from 2012 to 2014, while the S&P 500 rallied. But over the past month, the yen has gained about 3% against the U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 rose 6.8%.  There still is demand for U.S. government debt, which many investors consider among the safest investments. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note has crept up over the past month, but remains below 2%.  Gold futures are up 5.4% over the past month. The largest emerging-market exchange-traded fund, the Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF, is up 9.7% and the iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF , the largest junk-bond ETF, is up 5.1%.  In recent weeks, the U.S. has issued more upbeat economic figures, helping alleviate investors’ concerns that the U.S. was heading toward a recession and boosting stock prices that tumbled earlier this year. Meanwhile, Chinese growth has slowed, the world remains oversupplied with oil, the U.S. manufacturing sector is struggling and global economic growth still is tepid.  “We’ve reversed some of the irrational or fear-driven components of the selloff, but the reality is…there are some legitimate headwinds out there,” said David Lefkowitz, senior equity strategist at UBS Wealth Management in New York.  The firm has reduced its U.S. investors’ exposure to stocks this year, while also buying some high-yield debt, Mr. Lefkowitz said.  Despite the recent rally, the S&P 500 is off 3.2% in 2016.  “Everyone’s searching for the same pot of gold,” said Phil Blancato, chief executive at Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management. He said he recently bought shares of master-limited partnerships, investments focused on energy infrastructure. The Alerian MLP Index is up 16.7% over the past month. He also bought Ginnie-Mae-backed mortgage bonds as a safety play.  “Don’t throw all your chips in,” said Mr. Blancato, who manages about $2.2 billion.  Write to Leslie Josephs at leslie.josephs@wsj.com
Stocks, junk bonds and commodities have rallied of late. But so have havens such as gold and the yen—a sign that uncertainty still reigns.