For millions of fantasy football owners each season, there’s nothing more frustrating than an injury to a star NFL player. One torn ACL or dislocated shoulder can shatter your fantasy dreams and make you regret all the hours spent researching statistics while ignoring your loved ones. What’s worse, NFL injuries are seemingly random and can only be chalked up to bad luck.  But what if they weren’t?  A new algorithm designed by SportsInjuryPredictor.com tries to give fantasy players an edge when it comes to injury avoidance. It incorporates the complete injury history of every NFL player, going back to college, at the offensive skill positions (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end). The recency and type of injury are key predictive factors, along with anticipated workload and body-mass index (smaller players are more injury prone). Last year, it “was able to predict (injuries) 75% of the time.”  A number of high-profile players may have big reason to worry in 2015. For example, Pittsburgh Steelers running back Le’Veon Bell, who scored 11 touchdowns last year while gaining 2,215 yards from scrimmage (854 as a receiver), is given an 88% chance of injury. The New York Giants’ electrifying receiver Odell Beckham Jr. had 1,305 yards receiving in 2014 after missing the first four games, also was assessed an 88% injury risk. Even worse, the odds that an injury will be more severe, measured by games lost, increases as this probability gets higher. Compare that with New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees, whose injury-free history since 2010 gives him a 1% risk.  Past workload is also not considered a determining factor. So Philadelphia Eagles running back DeMarco Murray’s league-high 392 carries in 2014 have zero impact on his 48% injury risk, based instead on his four injuries since 2012 and expected heavy usage this year. Bell, 23, had a late-2014 knee injury and increased his risk by lowering his BMI while losing 20 pounds last year. Beckham’s hamstring woes have surfaced again this summer. But there actually may be good news for New England Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski (51%), whose number declined dramatically since last year and would again with an injury-free 2015—similar to a driver who goes multiple years without a traffic accident.
Le’Veon Bell, Odell Beckham Jr. and Julio Jones are top fantasy targets that have a high risk of injury in 2015, according to SportsInjuryPredictor.com.