"The court case has major implications for future insurance coverage and access to care for millions of Americans," said Caroline Pearson, vice president of Avalere Health. "Depending on the ultimate decision by the courts, and absent some other remedy, individuals in at least 25 states who remain in the current plans could see an average premium increase of over 70 percent."  Her colleague Elizabeth Carpenter said, "States, Congress and the administration will be under immense pressure to act to prevent large premium increases if the courts ultimately rule that individuals in federal exchanges are not eligible for tax credits."  "No doubt the politics surrounding the Affordable Care Act will make any action difficult and could possible make insurance unaffordable for millions of Americans who are already enrolled today," Carpenter said.  Another analysis of the potential fallout from the challenge to subsidies looked at the projected enrollment for Obamacare plans for 2016 and the subsidies that could be lost. That report was issued by the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation and the Urban Institute.  It said that of the 11.8 million people expected to be enrolled on that federal exchange by 2016, a total of 7.3 million would be receiving subsidies for their premium, and many of those people also would be receiving additional financial assistance to help pay for out-of-pocket costs such as co-payments, co-insurance and deductibles.  "A decision in favor of [the challenge] translates into a loss of $36.1 billion in 2016 of funds that would otherwise go to individuals and families with incomes below 400 percent of the federal poverty level, with spillover effects to state economies also expected from the sizable reduction in federal dollars flowing into these states," the Urban Institute report said.  "Losses would be as high as $4.8 billion in Florida and $5.6 billion in Texas." Twelve other states would each see ore than $1 billion in lost subsidies apiece, according to the Urban Institute.  There are four different pending federal court challenges that could lead to that outcome, including the D.C. federal appeals case Halbig vs. Burwell, whose decision is imminent.  Halbig vs. Burwell in recent weeks has been the subject of intense focus among health-policy experts because during oral arguments last spring one of the judges on the three-judge panel appeared sympathetic to the challenge to the subsidies, and another judge's questions suggested he might rule either way.
Several court challenges to a key part of Obamacare could lead to average premium increases of 76 percent for subsidized HealthCare.gov enrollees.