With the first week of the N.C.A.A. men’s basketball tournament complete, the value of The Quad’s analysis on the statistics most correlated to reaching the Final Four has become clearer.  Using field goal percentage defense, assist-to-turnover ratio and rebounding margin as barometers is apparently an excellent way to identify flawed teams in the top part of the bracket.  But it doesn’t seem to be a very effective method for determining which underdogs might make significant tournament runs.  Clearly, the most prescient point in last week’s assessment of teams was realized when Missouri, Duke and Michigan all suffered stunning first-game upsets within a few hours on Friday. Those squads were noted as having weak statistical profiles, especially relative to their seeds. Ditto for Vanderbilt and Murray State, which both fell in their second games Saturday.  On the other hand, the same key statistics foresaw potential success for New Mexico, Wichita State, California and B.Y.U., and none of those teams made it past Saturday either. In hindsight, that could be because their impressive statistical rankings were compiled against generally weaker competition.  With 16 teams left, what do the key stats suggest now?  Going strictly by the numbers, nothing has changed in terms of assessing the No. 1 seeds, all of which remain alive. North Carolina is the strongest, with Syracuse the weakest due to its exceptionally poor team rebounding margin, ranked 237th nationally. However, a wrist injury to Tar Heels point guard Kendall Marshall has put U.N.C.’s tournament prospects in jeopardy, as it could nullify the team’s sixth-ranked assist-to-turnover ratio, in particular.  Meanwhile, surviving No. 2 seeds Kansas and Ohio State still appear formidable and primed to advance through the regions that include North Carolina and Syracuse, respectively.  Beyond the No. 1 and 2 seeds, only three other teams don’t have a ranking outside the top 100 in at least one of the critical statistical categories—Baylor, Wisconsin and North Carolina State—but none of them have overall profiles as impressive as the favorites.  Before Marshall’s injury, it looked like the eventual national champion would come from one of five teams with no rankings outside the top 50 in the most important categories: North Carolina, Michigan State, Kentucky, Ohio State and Kansas, in that order.  If Marshall isn’t available or at full strength, that number may be reduced to four.
An injury to Kendall Marshall of North Carolina could put the Tar Heels' N.C.A.A. tournament prospects in jeopardy.