Armed with nothing more than a hot cup of tea, three oreos (the best cookie ever invented) and the new Bon Iver album, I am ready to take on all comers.  Me thinks Sarah Palin is only using this weekend to promote her brand.  The question is whether Palin is promoting her pop culture brand, her political brand or some hybrid.  And that question is almost impossible to answer. Palin is the closest thing to a celebrity we have in modern politics -- she's just as likely to talk to (or show up in) People magazine as the Washington Post.  And that makes it SO hard to know whether any/all of her actions should be analyzed the way we would analyze a celebrity or the way we would analyze a politician.  The right answer is probably somewhere in between.  – May 27, 2011 11:03 AM  Rank the following from most likely to least likely to run for president in 2012: Rick Perry, Sarah Palin, and Chris Christie?  2. Perry (15 percent chance he runs)  3. Christie (2 percent chance he runs)  – May 27, 2011 11:04 AM  Tim Pawlenty has been going all out for awhile now, and yet the latest polls have him behind Herman Cain. How does Tim Pawlenty jump in the polls, instead of becoming the next Phil Gramm?  Remember that presidential nomination contests are NOT national elections. So, where Pawlenty or Cain stands in a national poll is of pretty limited value.  That said, Pawlenty will have to start moving up in IA and NH polling by this fall if he wants to be a credible candidate heading into next year.  And a lot of that depends on him. He has put the right pieces in the right places to succeed in a campaign. Now he has to go out and sell himself to voters.  – May 27, 2011 11:06 AM  What exactly is this talk of Thad McCotter running for president? Is the media really this bored, and just asking every Republican backbencher what their plans are for 2012?  I think it's evidence that the GOP field is wide open and lots and lots of Republican politicians are looking in the mirro these days and thinking "Why not me?"  I also think McCotter could have trouble after redistricting in Michigan so he may view a quixotic presidential race as a way to elevate himself and maybe make himself credible for statewide office down the line.  – May 27, 2011 11:07 AM  If the NBA season ended, and nobody noticed, did it really end?  Last night, Mrs Fix saw an ad for Game 7 of Bruins-Lightning and said "Hockey is still going on?"  And it's not even the finals yet!  I think hockey has to win the interminably long postseason award. Basketball pales in comparison.  Also, I think I could average 4 points a game on this Miam Heat team. I would stand outside, take 10 jumpers and make 2. SWEET.  – May 27, 2011 11:09 AM  One of the ways tennis stars get rich is to sign up for a minor tournament, get the appearance fee, then fake an injury to rest up for the next important tourney. How long until Sarah Palin pulls a political hamstring, drops out of the presidential race and goes back to hookwinking the rubes out of their dollars?  Is that a thing in tennis? Interesting.  I DO think that people who are concluding that Palin's bus tour=her running for president are jumping to conclusions -- perhaps using a jumping to conclusions mat. [http://www.thinkgeek.com/books/humor/8e6c/images/2070/]  The more telling sign of Palin really running would be/will be her starting to make appearances in early states and hiring staff in those places too. She has done next to none of that yet.  – May 27, 2011 11:12 AM  What are the odds we will see the Cillizza on his chopper this weekend?  Is there a number less than zero?  Nerdy prep school kid and motorcyle don't go together. At all.  – May 27, 2011 11:13 AM  Mark this on the calendar as the new drop dead date for the rapture  Already circled on my calendar. It will be frustrating since I will never get to know who won the Kentucky governor's race. Oh well.  – May 27, 2011 11:14 AM  Were you surprised that NY 26 went the way it did, especially with the Ryan Plan being so prominant in campaign ads?  Not surprised because over the final 7 days of the race Democrats and Republicans came to the same conclusion: Hochul was going to win.  But, more broadly, you bet I was surprised. This is a Republican district -- one of only four McCain won in the state in 2008.  Corwin's wrong-headed decision to embrace the Ryan plan and then stick by it clearly hurt her. And sent a signal to other Republicans in somewhat vulnerable seats: find a way to explain that vote. And fast.  – May 27, 2011 11:16 AM  The real question is, who do you have tomorrow: Barcelona or Manchester United?  Rooting for Man U -- I am an unapologetic Rooney fan -- but think Barca probably wins.  If you haven't read the NYT piece on Messi from last weekend, read it now. Here: http://goal.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/05/21/lionel-messi-boy-genius/  – May 27, 2011 11:17 AM  This chat would be epic if it went head to head against Soccer Chat?  I KNOW.Champions league championship chat is at noon. Bullet dodged.  – May 27, 2011 11:17 AM  The Palins have moved to Arizona... the Dem establishment continues to hold their breath for Giffords, and occasionally we hear rumors that Obama will contest Arizona this year thinking that the changing demographics will help him put the state in play. What do you see going on here - does Palin's move make her more like to run for prez, does that hurt or help Obama's attempts to put it in play, and who runs for Senate on the R side if Giffords runs for reelection to her House seat instead of Senate? What does it all mean??  The oddest part of the "Palin is running" storuy this week seems to me to be the fact that she reportedly bought a $1.7 house in Arizona.  Why would that tell us she is moving toward a bid? Did I miss a memo?  As for the Senate race, Rep. Jeff Flake (R) is already in and running and is very likely to be the Republican nominee.  Democrats are in a holding pattern waiting to see whether Giffords is interested/able in running. My guess is we won't know the answer to that until this fall or even later.  If Giffords doesn't run, Democrats will struggle to hold the seat because of the conservative tilt of Arizona and the huge head start that Flake will have had on their eventual nominee.  – May 27, 2011 11:20 AM  She seems to have been miffed because she was out of the spotlight when the media was focusing on Trump, but if she does not run, then doesn't she end up losing that spotlight again, permanently?  Well, she dips out of the political spotlight.  I think she would remain revelant in the broader culture from some longer period of time although that would eventually fade to.  I think the calculation Palin is making involves her ability to win the race, her money-earning power in the private sector and her desire to put herself under the heaviest scrutiny any presidential candidate would ever have experienced.  It's a complicated equation and one I don't think she has figured out yet.  – May 27, 2011 11:21 AM  Is she playing the press like Trump, or is she serious?  If I knew that, I would have ascended to Hax/Weingarten-type audiences for this chat. Instead, I am bettered by a damn DC squirrel.  – May 27, 2011 11:22 AM  How long can she run for president without endangering her House seat? Even though her district is pretty conservative, she has always had a tough fight on her hands and had to raise gobs of money. If she raises and spends that money for a presidential run, could she hamstring her efforts to hold her House seat?  Could? Yes. Will? Who knows.  Bachmann's seat is comfortably Republican but, as you rightly point out, she has had closer races in it than she should because of her tendency toward controversial statements.  Bids for president can hurt re-election prospects back home -- see Chris Dodd in 2008/2010 -- but until we see how well Bachmann does in the presidential (and what she says) it's tough to gauge the exact impact.  – May 27, 2011 11:23 AM  As in 2008, it looks like Florida will be a key primary state next year. It looks like a good state for Romney -- huge, expensive, filled with lots of country-club Republicans. Anyone else organizing there? And is anyone courting the Cuban-American community? They made the difference for John McCain in 2008. Romney did TERRIBLY with the Cubans.  Huntsman and Pawlenty will make a major play there too.  I think it could come down to Florida just like it did in 2008. Assuming they move the primary to the beginning of March, the winner of Florida would take significant momentum going forward.  – May 27, 2011 11:24 AM  (1) Does she have any capacity for the hard work involved in running for president? (2) Is she willing to delegate power outside her (small, paranoid) inner circle? (3) She has some of the highest negatives of any American politician -- 60% of Americans don't like her, 70% don't think she's qualified to be president. Can she do anything to change a *horrible* first impression? Is she willing?  2. I don't think her inner circle is paranoid but she clearly needs to expand beyond them if she wants to run for president.  3. I don't know. That's the central question of her candidacy. She's already totally known and, in some significant segment of the GOP, not well liked.  Another question: Will Republicans be willing to nominate someone who polling suggests would lose badly to Obama in 2012?  – May 27, 2011 11:26 AM  In today's fragmented media landscape, if 5-10% of Americans love you, but everyone else hates you, you're a star! But politics is still a winner-take-all business, and 10% of anything leaves you on the sidelines.  Except in a fractured primary/caucus field where 25-30 percent could be a winner in a place like Iowa or South Carolina.  – May 27, 2011 11:27 AM  Thought Paul Ryan had the worst week this week. Dont think they can change many minds with their claims that it isnt a voucher program  – May 27, 2011 11:27 AM  What KIND of oreos? You can't just say Oreos, Cillizza. Double stuff? Chocolate?Fudge coated? Original?  Original. You don't mess with perfection.  – May 27, 2011 11:27 AM  RedState has had the best explanation for why R's failed in NY- you do NOT pick someone from the State Legislature (universally reviled in NYS) as your candidate. Perhaps a more open primary process for special elections in NYS could solve this problem. Last three specials in NYS have seen D's win by nominating an "outsider" against a Republican member of the State Assembly.  All good points. I do think candidate quality matters more in specials because of the amount of media attention they draw.  And Hochul was clearly the superior candidate.  But Medicare mattered in a major way. So did Jack Davis.  – May 27, 2011 11:28 AM  My guess-- Paul Ryan or John Boehner. Newt shouldn't win 2 weeks in a row, though I think Blingrich is a really good nickname.  See above. I think Ryan deserved it. The success Dems had in attacking his budget plan means that he will be an electoral whipping boy for months/years to come.  – May 27, 2011 11:30 AM  enjoy the oreos......meanwhile..don't you think the itinerary of the bus tour would not be one a potential candidate would choose? Is Sarah Palin Donald's Trump alter ego? what goes?  It's not the itinerary that a traditional politician would likely choose. But, Palin is not that traditional politician. Not by a long shot.  And, in one important way she is like Trump: they are both creatures of a world in which the line between politician and celebrity has blurred considerably.  – May 27, 2011 11:32 AM  Black and White cookie is the best cookie ever invented. Who could ever forget the Seinfeld episode. "If people would only look to the cookie all our problems would be solved."  Good point. But since I don't live in NYC, I can't get a good black and white cookie to save my life.  – May 27, 2011 11:32 AM  Obviously, he needs to come up with some awesome pizza.  Or some mediocre pizza depending on where you come down on Godfather's.  – May 27, 2011 11:33 AM  I think Palin is going to "pull a Trump" on the political pundit class and news media with this bus tour. If she was really going to run-- Roger Ailes would have pulled the plug on her. My bet is she will satart a circus, just like Trump and the press will follow,., I don't care for myself because I am bored with the GOP field, but I bet there is teeth gnashing going on in GOPland. What say you?  I do think it's interesting that Fox isn't changing Palin's status at the network. Not sure if it's a definitive sign of her intentions (or lack thereof) but it's definitely interesting.  I think the happiest person about Sarah Palin running would be Mitt Romney. All of a sudden his health care problem would seem minor as compared to the establishment's desire to keep Palin from the nomination.  – May 27, 2011 11:34 AM  This year it's gone longer than usual because of all the 7 game series. But it is definitely longer than it used to be...we used to be in the finals by this point in the year.  I stopped watching hockey when the Whalers left Hartford.  – May 27, 2011 11:35 AM  Sarah Palin thinks Americans want to see two hours of Andrew Bretibart ranting against her "enemies" in the media? Um, OK. Seriously, do you think many people are going to go see this?  I do think Palin's focus on the media and her mistreatment at their collective hands is not the sort of message that wins you a Republican nomination -- or any nomination.  This bus tour seems to be an attempt to connect Palin to the founding fathers and the ideals that made the country, a far better piece of strategic positioning than running as the media grievance candidate.  – May 27, 2011 11:36 AM  Don't the things that GOP contenders have to say to win primaries make them unelectable in the general? For example: dismantle medicare, bust all unions, cut back government services, unending war in Iraq and Afghanistan, changing the constitution based understanding of citizenship, deport tens of millions of people who are vital to the success of our economy (that will cost trillions of dollars).  Primaries in both parties push the winning candidate to the ideological poles. The secret is in figuring out a consistent -- or semi-consistent -- way to make it back to the middle or close to it.  That's been an age-old problem/challenge for both sides. It's highlighted on the GOP side this time because they have a major primary fight on their hands while President Obama will cruise to his party's nomination.  – May 27, 2011 11:38 AM  Um, who's Thad McCotter? BTW, the trouble with oreos is that they are 50 calories apiece and it's too easy to eat them like they're 5 calories apiece. Oreos are, therefore, not welcome in my pantry. Oh, and Pandora recently turned me on to the band, Ratatat. Their song "Loud Pipes" is really really good. you'd like it.  Mouse Rat is the best band since the Beatles.  Also, Ron Swanson for president.  – May 27, 2011 11:40 AM  You and all the other political junkies are paying Sarah Palin to tour, just because everyone else is so boring. Confess!  – May 27, 2011 11:40 AM  I'm not one of those Democrats who thinks the world will end if a Republican wins in 2012, but I do think it will end if Palin wins. Please assure me that she is unelectable in the general election.  Today, she couldn't win a general election.  Whether she could if/when she wound as the Republican presidential nominee is a different question. I can't answer that one.  – May 27, 2011 11:41 AM  Forget politics. I like Sarah Palin's down home TV portrayal of Alaska. How can someone seem to love her state like that up and move to Arizona?  – May 27, 2011 11:41 AM  How can basketball's postseason seem short compared to hockey's when they're both essentially the same length? Doesn't your statement just mean you enjoy one more than the other?  But doesn't it feel like the hockey playoffs take WAY longer?  – May 27, 2011 11:42 AM  Pros: Catholic, purplish blue state, good on TV, popular with base, more moderate than many know. Cons: Overweight, dicey standing back home.  Another con: I don't think he is interested in being veep.  – May 27, 2011 11:43 AM  Is there a reason that the Sarah bus tour is going through the Northeast other than that's where the punditocracy lives?  The ostensible reason for the tour is to visit historical sites critical to the founding of the country. And there aren't all that many of those west of the Mississippi.  – May 27, 2011 11:44 AM  If Michele Bachmann announces she's running for President, doesn't that siphon off Sarah Palin's base of support for a Presidential run? Or would Sarah run against Michele?  I think Palin overshadows Bachmann to some extent if they both run. But, Bachmann has more of a political team around her at the moment and is probably better positioned to win in Iowa.  Palin is still the far bigger star though. And they would both be trying to win over social conservatives.  – May 27, 2011 11:45 AM  With the exception of foreigners and euro-centric hipster white guys, no one here cares about soccer. More people will watch game 4 of a 3-0 NHL playoff series then will watch the champions league final.  Wait, does that make me a "euro-centric hipster white guy"?  – May 27, 2011 11:45 AM  The coventional wisdom is that a candidate has to run the gauntlet of the Sunday interview shows, 60 Minutes, and similar locales. Sarah Palin is remarkably adverse to such a schedule because she feels she is blind-sided by the likes of Katie Couric. Can a candidate run for the Presidency, or even the nomination, will only apprearances with Sean Hannity while skipping the others?  Remember that Fred Thompson thought he could run that sort of unorthodox campaign in 2008. And, look where he ended up.  Palin is a bigger star than Thompson in GOP circles but I just don't think you win the presidential nomination of either party by ignoring places like Iowa and new Hampshire.  There's no candidate in modern political history who succeeded with that approach. Could Palin be the first? Sure. But it's still a long shot unless she decides to dedicate real time and energy to building an organization in early states.  – May 27, 2011 11:47 AM  So I own www.Pawlentyrubio2012.com. What's the chances I cash in and can sell this to the campaign?  Oooh. I would sit on that one...could be valuable  – May 27, 2011 11:48 AM  Where is this damn squirrel at?  I ask myself that every morning when I wake up.  – May 27, 2011 11:48 AM  I know that, to win the Republican nomination, you have to establish that you are somewhere on the spectrum between skeptical of the federal government to openly hostile to it, but Rick Perry has actually semi-seriously suggested secession (pardon the alliteration). Does he really see himself as a credible national candidate for president?  Well, he said this am that he is going to take a look at running. So, yes, i guess.  We shall see. My Friday presidential Line -- the 10 candidates most likely to wind up as the nominee -- is dedicated to the Perry question. Should on Fix shortly. Check it out.  – May 27, 2011 11:49 AM  What has he done to indicate a 2012 run?  Said this am he will consider it. Check out the Fix shortly for more.  – May 27, 2011 11:50 AM  Who was holding up the pictures of the squirrel in your Fix Faceoff the other week?  Due to a pending lawsuit between myself and the squirrel I can't comment.  – May 27, 2011 11:50 AM  If Rick Perry doesn't run for President, how would you rank him as VP timber?  Not. I think he's like Chris Christie. They are executives, ceos, #1 guys. Perry is not someone who plays second fiddle in the band.  – May 27, 2011 11:51 AM  Seems like the pool of presidential candidates gets lousier with every cycle. (Since I'm somewhat of an Obama fan I'll make an exception for him.) Why is talent so thin at the top tier of American politics? My guess is that the reason is that they aren't allowed to have mistresses anymore.  I think a lot of the young Republican talent -- Rubio, Nikki Haley, Susana Martinez, Jindal -- is one presidential cycle away.  So, 2016 will be a more accurate measure of where the two parties stand.  And remember that before Obama gave his speech at the 2004 Democratic convention we were all talking about how Democrats had no fresh faces in their ranks...  – May 27, 2011 11:52 AM  A whipping boy til November? How long can you whip a man for having a plan, when you don't have one? For a few months, for sure, but after that the dems will have to announce some formulation of a plan, no?  You are taking on the policy fight.  I am simply saying that in the context of political campaigns, Ryan and his plan are going to be made (even more) famous by Democrats. And not in a good way.  – May 27, 2011 11:53 AM  Harris Teeter makes this walnut-coconut, chewy, buttery, insanely delicious and addictive cookie. I actually told my wife to stop buying them because I was having impulse control issues. I'm pretty sure there's crack in them.  – May 27, 2011 11:54 AM  what's her chances? Who does she help othe than Obama, by getting in the mix. does she make romney look better?  I think she is a real contender in the Iowa caucuses no matter what.  I don't know if she can expand beyond that one state though even if she wins it. That's the challenge. Can Bachmann prove she is not just Mike Huckabee circa 2008.  – May 27, 2011 11:54 AM  Guess he won't be on the Palinapalooza bus tour after Blind Allegiance came out. Have you read it?  Palinapalooza is an awesome name for the bus tour though.  – May 27, 2011 11:55 AM  I told you months ago that she deserved to win and that her voice was the only unique one (in a good way) to be on the radio. You scoffed. I think her swan song of "Bennie and the Jets" was the best performance all season. What made you flip-flop worse than Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich combined?  It's true. I am a flip flopper. Someone should send a dolphin wearing flip flops to follow me around!  I think haley's sassiness and willingness not to play along with the "all these kids are great and love each other" narrative that Idol tries to build every year appealed to me.  – May 27, 2011 11:56 AM  Xmas : pepperment red and white stipes . . awesome... are made in Canada  Canada! Is that still a country?  – May 27, 2011 11:56 AM  "Black and White cookie is the best cookie ever invented. Who could ever forget the Seinfeld episode. "If people would only look to the cookie all our problems would be solved." " And later in the episode, Jerry threw up as the cookie was causing turmoil in is stomach. It's no panacea.  There is no silver bullet cookie to solving the world's problems.  – May 27, 2011 11:58 AM  Tuned into your chat last week for the first time and was thrilled to discover there are are at least two more people who love this show as I do! I think you should do a chat just about FNL. "I didn't ask you to be better than everyone else. I asked you to TRY to be better. In the striving is character." Coach Taylor to Vince. It's not about the football.  Did I tear up when Coach Taylor said that? Yes.  Do I love Friday Night Lights more than every other show on TV put together? Yes  Have I heard rumors that there will be another FNL movie? Yes.  – May 27, 2011 11:58 AM  But he's a libertarian! Ironic he works in government - Local government, still, but government, nonetheless  We need more mustachioed men in office. John Hoeven is a caucus of one in the Senate at this point!  – May 27, 2011 11:59 AM  And that's a wrap folks. I am finishing up the Fix presidential Line so make sure to check that out soon!  And, have a great Memorial Day weekend. See you on Tuesday for the Fix Face-off live video chat. 11 am. Be there.
Get your Friday Live Fix as Chris Cillizza discusses Sarah Palin's bus tour along the East Coast, the New York 26 special election results, the Friday Line, the Worst Week in Washington, and all the latest political news.