It's a rambling mixtape. I'm Not There in spirit, a bit Last Days in tone. Searching for Sugar Man pops up to add backing vocals.  1961. Llewyn Davis (Oscar Isaac) scrapes a living by hauling his acoustic guitar around the folk clubs of Greenwich Village. He's Dylan in his head, Donovan to the circuit. A talented lightweight struggling to rise out of anonymity. Perhaps a last gasp road trip to Chicago can drum up the gigs needed to get his album, Inside Llewyn Davis, out to the people?  The Coens' 16th feature takes inspiration from The Mayor of MacDougal Street, a book by Elijah Wald and Village scenester Dave Van Ronk. Van Ronk was a player on Greenwich's folk circuit and a supporter of Dylan, Ramblin' Jack Elliot and Joni Mitchell in their early years.  Isaac, a former professional punk guitarist whose acting career has been on the climb after strong supporting roles in the good (Drive), the bad (Sucker Punch) and the downright horrendous (WE) won the part after sending the Coens an audition tape of his playing. Ethan Coen has said the brothers were "screwed until Oscar showed up".  Coens regular T Bone Burnett was recruited to help shape the soundtrack, alongside Marcus Mumford (of Mumford & Sons), who reshaped a number of traditionals to get Isaac's chops a-chopping.  Isaac is a revelation as bitter, creatively knackered Llewyn. He plays the Coens' world-worn misanthrope with a sincerity that make his perpertual struggle against his own limitations funny and tragic. The Academy would be striking a huge bum note if they didn't at least give him a nomination.  The Coens deserve a best original screenplay nod and a shot at best picture. Burnett and Mumford are ineligible for best original score (most of the songs are based on folk standards), although Please Mr. Kennedy, a novelty pop ditty about the space race that Llewyn is drafted onto as a session musician, could grab a nomination. The Academy would have to overlook its startling similarity to Mickey Woods real-life hit though …  Carey Mulligan and Justin Timberlake (who play Llewyn's furious lover and her meek, clueless boyfriend) are fine supports, but probably don't have enough solo power to rise above the ensemble. Similarly John Goodman's Dr John-style voodoo bluesman is more a juicy cameo than a performance worthy of a supporting actor nod. You never know though – the Academy could be feeling zany.  Before 12 Years a Slave it could have swept the board. It'll be tricky – but not impossible - for the Coens to grab best picture from Steve McQueen and co now. Isaac will face strong competition from 12 Years' lead, Chiwetel Ejiofor, but you'd hope Oscar could spread-bet a little. He's genuinely deserving of the biggest prize going for a performance that's entertaining and moving in equal measure.  Dark, comic and heartfelt in a style that only the Coens can muster. The script's a scorcher. The production design recreates the romance of the era. It feels timeless – an old favourite already.  It's no radical departure for the Coens (but since when did the Academy reward wild experimentation?). 12 Years a Slave pushes all the buttons: emotional, historical, political. Llewyn might come in second best: good, but not good enough, once again.  It had its premiere in Cannes, then wandered off to Telluride for its North American premiere. It's out on general release in the states on 6 December and the UK on 24 January 2014.  Deserving, but blowin' in the wind  • More from our Oscar predictions 2014 series
Our series continues with Henry Barnes' look at the Coen brothers' tale of a 60s folk rock also-ran, starring a revelatory Oscar Isaac