The 2012 election is only 20 months away, and right now President Obama is looking like a good bet for re-election.  "I consider him a favorite, albeit a slight favorite," former George W. Bush adviser Karl Rove tells Politico. "Republicans underestimate President Obama at their own peril."  Of course, the economy will have a lot to say about next year's politics, and, as political analyst Charlie Cook writes, "a rough rule of thumb is that if unemployment is at or near 9 percent, it will be a bad omen for Obama. But if the figure is at or close to 8 percent, it will be good news for the president, because the jobless rate will have improved significantly from its 10 percent level at the end of 2009."  Since November, the unemployment rate has fallen from 9.8% to its current level of 8.9%.  Of course, plenty of non-economic factors will be weighing on voters' minds, including foreign policy. Whom Republicans nominate is certainly relevant, as well. But the economic indicators are looking far better for Obama today than they did six months ago, and they seem headed toward a place where presidents tend to get reelected.  No Republican has formally announced plans to challenge Obama, and those who are talking about running aren't drawing rave reviews.  "If pessimism is not creeping on little cat's feet into Republicans' thinking about their 2012 presidential prospects, that is another reason for pessimism," writes conservative commentator George F. Will in The Washington Post.  Will sees only five plausible GOP candidates (and it is doubtful all of them will run): Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, former Utah governor and departing ambassador to China Jon Huntsman, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney and former Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty.  Whoever emerges, Will argued, will be hurt by comments made by two other would-be contenders, Mike Huckabee and Newt Gingrich. Both have raised questions about Obama growing up overseas. Writes Will:  So the Republican winnowing process is far advanced. But the nominee may emerge much diminished by involvement in a process cluttered with careless, delusional, egomaniacal, spotlight-chasing candidates to whom the sensible American majority would never entrust a lemonade stand, much less nuclear weapons.  (Will made no mention of Sarah Palin, by the way).  Expect a lot of analysts to make comparisons to 1995, a year in which Bill Clinton consolidated his hold on the presidency while Republicans struggled to find a candidate and eventually produced Bob Dole.  But things change -- and don't forget the oil markets are worried about Libya and unrest in the Middle East.  This could just as easily be 1991, when President George H.W. Bush looked unbeatable in the wake of the Gulf War.  As the economy worsened, Bill Clinton did not formally announce his candidacy until Oct. 3, 1991, just 13 months before the election in which he defeated the first President Bush.  See photos of: George W. Bush, Barack Obama, Bill Clinton, Sarah Palin
Obama looks good for 2012, at least for now, analysts say - The Oval: Tracking the Obama presidency