“The help the consumer has gotten in this weak economy from low oil prices is coming to an end,” said Larry Goldstein, a director of the Energy Policy Research Foundation, a research group funded by the government and oil industry. “The unanticipated supply disruptions are coming at the most inopportune time. Now U.S. production is declining and global inventories hare starting to decline along with it.”  Oil executives and other experts say that still hefty global inventories will keep prices from rising to extremes anytime soon, but that oil prices are likely to rise at least another 10 percent over the next year.  Further steady rises in price are expected through the end of the decade given the deep cuts in exploration investment across the global oil patch.  The oil industry, with its history of booms and busts, is in a new downturn.  But drivers probably shouldn’t worry about such projections too much for the rest of the summer.  On Thursday, the average price for a gallon of regular gasoline nationally was $2.31, 43 cents below a year ago, according to the AAA motor club.  The Oil Price Information Service, which monitors fuel prices, expects that the average national price this summer will be $2.25 to $2.50 a gallon of regular, the cheapest summer driving since 2009. Refinery repairs have been particularly helpful in reducing prices in California.  AAA expects 34 million people to drive at least 50 miles this holiday weekend, the most since 2005. It is part of a broader trend of more road travel as the economy improves. Experts say the Memorial Day traffic is just the beginning of a summer of traffic jams at the nation’s beaches and mountain parks.  “The statistics over the last two years have been dramatic in terms of numbers of increased road trips during the critical holiday periods,” said Bill Sutherland, senior vice president for travel and publishing at AAA. “As the roads become busier, and as the hotels become used, as restaurants fill up, you will want to be sure you have effectively planned out the trip.”  Economists have been generally disappointed that lower gasoline prices have not given the economy a bigger boost over the last year. They originally thought consumers would spend their extra dollars at the shopping mall, but instead many people have saved their extra cash, although others are buying bigger and less efficient vehicles.  Then there is the toll on jobs. The drop in exploration and production in states like Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana and North Dakota has led to layoffs totaling 120,000 workers in high-paying jobs. More than 70 companies in the United States and Canada have gone bankrupt, and experts say the industry will need at least a couple of years to recover.  In the next several weeks, the companies are obliged to cover quarterly interest payments on loans they took out when oil prices were over $100 a barrel, and several more may be unable to meet their obligations. Many banks have cut lines of credit, seeking to reduce their own vulnerability.  The depressed state of the industry has been a drag on the national economy — particularly for manufacturers who make the pipelines and drilling equipment — and that has only been partly counterbalanced by lower energy costs.  Still, the share prices for many oil companies, like Exxon Mobil, Chevron and Hess, have risen sharply with oil prices in recent months, reflecting rising confidence that energy prices will rise even more in 2017 and 2018.  In the meantime, economists say that they see a benefit for lower-income people, who spend the highest proportion of their salaries on energy and generally drive older, gas-guzzling vehicles. Some of the states with the lowest gasoline prices, like Mississippi, South Carolina and Arkansas, have a large number of lower-income workers, many of whom drive long distances to work.  And some sectors of the economy, including tourism, are also benefiting.  “People are driving more and eating out more, and employment in restaurants is up incredibly,” said Mine K. Yucel, director of research at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. “People care about oil prices because they see the price of gasoline on every street corner. They experience the change in price every week or 10 days and they feel they have more cash in their pockets.”  If nothing else, the rising price has raised morale in the American oil patch.  “There is a chance the price could go down pretty quick,” said Denzil West, president of Reliance Energy, a Texas driller. “With prices being a little more stable, we’re cautiously optimistic, but a lot of companies have been wrecked and all the fallout has not been seen yet.”  An earlier version of this article misstated when the average price for a gallon of regular gasoline nationally was $2.31 and, because of an editing error, when benchmark prices for a barrel of oil briefly pushed past $50 for the first time since August. It was Thursday, not Friday.  A version of this article appears in print on May 27, 2016, on page B1 of the New York edition with the headline: Cheap Gas for the Holiday, but Its Days Are Numbered. Order Reprints| Today's Paper|Subscribe
Despite higher crude oil prices, American holiday travelers are paying the cheapest prices at the pump in 11 years.