Mets fans are an extremely damaged bunch and have been for quite some time. Most teams that go through bad times just lose. There’s nothing wrong with that - in sports we have winners and losers, things work in cycles and it’s perfectly normal to go through a down period.  It’s different with these Mets. It’s darker. Much darker.  Here’s a brief summary of what’s been going on since since the Cardinals beat the Mets in Game Seven of the 2006 NLCS:  A pair of epic late season collapses. The Mets’ tie in to the Bernie Madoff scandal. A new stadium that that paid more homage to the Dodgers than the team from Queens. The abysmal contracts of Luis Castillo, Oliver Perez and Jason Bay. Outfield dimensions that sucked the life out of their captain, David Wright and the rest of their remaining offense. The departure of Jose Reyes, one of the best homegrown offensive players the team has ever had. An ownership detached from its fan base, one that continuously lied about their ability to fund the team in line with their market, all while being provided funds by MLB to stay afloat. Assorted public relations debacles stemming directly from that detached management. A clever but sarcastic GM in Sandy Alderson whose humor would be more appreciated if their dwindling fan base wasn’t so burned out from experiencing most moribund period in franchise history.  And there’s more, so much more that it could fill volumes. The pot is so poisoned between Mets fans and the ownership of Fred Wilpon, his son Jeff and Saul Katz, there’s some doubt as to who would show up even if this team starts to win.  That’s right, I said win. Amazingly, it’s a strong possibility in 2015.  Since we’re in a New York baseball state of mind, let’s start with what’s wrong with these Mets.  Ownership refused to pony up for a shortstop, so Wilmer Flores, a shaky defender with an alleged offensive upside plays the position. His backup, Ruben Tejada, is despised by his own organization, yet still on the roster. Second baseman David Murphy, also defensively challenged, makes the double-play combination a daily adventure. The catcher, Travis d’Arnaud, is a Met who could hit but also has trouble fielding his position. Pitcher Zack Wheeler, who was coming along beautifully and was the expected No2 starter, is out of the season following Tommy John surgery. And, in what could be the most bizarre move of the offseason, ownership spent some money on ... 36 year-old Michael Cuddyer - an outfielder who missed most of 2014 with multiple injuries and gets $21m over two seasons. David Wright’s childhood buddy hasn’t had a positive defensive WAR since he was 23 - Colorado were happy to see him walk and are delighted with receiving a draft pick as compensation.  Defense has to be a worry for this ballclub. Their makeup makes you wonder if their front office watched the 2014 World Series, one that featured two teams that fielded their positions incredibly well - two teams that incidentally, occupy rather large ballparks, just as the Mets do. The golden gloves of Juan Lagares and Wright are, more or less, the only defensive strengths on the field.  The good? Well, when you talk Mets you start with pitching. The organization is deep enough that losing a pitcher the calibre of Wheeler doesn’t have the impact that it would in other organizations, so the Mets stay the course and move on.  Flamethrowing franchise hurler Matt Harvey has returned to the back pages of New York’s tabloids, for baseball reasons, looking like he’s made a clean recovery from Tommy John surgery. National League Rookie of the Year Jacob deGrom surpassed all expectations a season ago and will move up in the rotation behind Harvey. John Niese is a steady lefty while the amusing, ageless wonder that is Bartolo Colon will be the fourth starter. Hard throwing righty Rafael Montero has pitched himself into the mix as a possible fifth starter. Otherwise it’s Dillon Gee, often the subject of trade rumors, who has had moderate success on a big league level. If that doesn’t work out, there’s still the heavily hyped Noah Syndergaard and local product Steven Matz waiting in the wings.  Jenrry Mejia is the closer, but Jeurys Familia could eventually move into the role. Former closer Bobby Parnell is back in mid-April from shoulder surgery, while the Mets filled a huge void by acquiring lefties Alex Torres from the Padres and Jerry Blevins from the Nats just days ago.  Offense is the big question mark for manager Terry Collins heading into the 2015 season. The return of David Wright to prominence will have much to do with how the lineup comes together, and should he return to All-Star form, it’ll make life easier for Cuddyer, who has played in hitting friendly parks for all but two years of his career. Curtis Granderson looks to be energized by his reunion with former Yankees hitting coach Kevin Long. Lucas Duda is coming off a breakout season, while Murphy, who made the All-Star team last season, has the potential to raise his productivity inside a lineup with protection. D’Arnaud matured offensively in the second half of the season, posting a .787 OPS that would’ve put him in the top three in his position had he put those numbers up across all of 2014.  The Mets are one of the most interesting teams of 2015, one with a legitimate opportunity to emerge from six long years of pain. It’s still quite a delicate set up however, and there could come a point in the season where the Wilpon’s will need to step up and spend to contend - that will be the ultimate litmus test for ownerships commitment to a turnaround.  Prediction: Show me first, third place NL East.  It wasn’t that long ago that these Phillies won an awful lot of ballgames - from 2007 to 2011, the Phills were NL East Champs, winning it all in 2008. It was positively un-Philly like, considering the franchise has lost 10,127 times in franchise history, the most in MLB (and probably anywhere).  Now prodigious losing has returned Citizen’s Bank Park - in 2012 they finished third, in 2013 when they finished fourth, and 2014 they finished dead last - fifth in the NL East. Luckily, thanks to the 1994 re-alignment, you can no longer finish sixth or seventh in the division, a fact that’s unlikely to bring any solace to battery throwing Philly fans.  So now what? Rebuild. It’s a process that has been awfully slow to begin, perhaps because it’s so hard to let go of that rare success. Ace starting pitcher Cole Hamels, second baseman Chase Utley, first-baseman Ryan Howard and catcher Carlos Ruiz, holdouts from the 2008 championship team, are still wearing a white P on their cap, for some reason. Philly.com got a laugh, (at least from me) using the post-credits line in Ferris Bueller’s Day Off to make a point:  “You’re still here? It’s over. Go home.”  That makes sense - those players need to be dealt whenever possible (Amaro declared he’d be willing to pick up $50m of the $60m owed to Howard), as does closer Jonathan Papelbon (they’ll also have to swallow a lot of cash to jettison the mouthy hurler), to replenish the minor league system and gear it up for the next run. They did say goodbye to Jimmy Rollins, Antonio Bastardo and Marlon Byrd (again), but it’s just not enough - GM Ruben Amaro Jr needs to pull the trigger, sink himself into what looks to be at least a 90-loss season, and be satisfied with daydreaming about the eventual arrival of shortstop prospect JP Crawford and former LSU ace pitcher Aaron Nola, whom A-Rod just loves.  Thing is, most major in-season trades occur around the deadline anyway. So if the Phillies, who are also wondering if hurler Cliff Lee can make a successful non-surgical rehab from elbow issues, and if newcomer Chad Billingsley can make a strong comeback from elbow surgery, are somehow in contention around late June, early July, that will just make those decisions tougher. Amaro Jr, who resisted rebuilding for way too long, would be thrust into a short-term success scenario vs a long-term project. Phillies fans, you don’t want that.  Luckily, with a weak hitting (the worst WAR prediction in baseball), poor fielding team and a questionable rotation that includes Aaron Harang, Jerome Williams and Billingsley after Hamels, chances are this season will be wrapped up by Memorial Day.  Prediction: Pain exists in this dojo - fifth place, NL East  In 2014, Giancarlo Stanton represented over 14% of the Marlins’ payroll and played like it, crushing 37 home runs despite missing time after being hit in the face by a pitch. With power coming at a premium in today’s game, Stanton was able to secure the largest contract in baseball history, penning a 13 years for $325m deal in November that made global headlines for its duration and sheer wealth.  It’s a contract that was good for Stanton and the Marlins, with just $26m of the proceeds heading his way over the next three seasons before the really big money kicks in. Stanton will earn $6.5m this season, same as last, while the Marlins managed to keep their payroll within shouting distance of the 30th ranked Houston Astros at roughly $60m. It’s quite the trick considering Stanton’s contract and the other pieces they were able to add over the winter.  The Yankees reluctantly dealt Martin Prado to Miami because their general manager, Brian Cashman, badly needed another live arm in the Bronx. Nathan Eovaldi has an upside, but also had an ERA north of five for the Marlins last season, and so the Marlins took their opportunity to trade for a player who seems to be universally liked for both his “gamer” disposition and an ability to play multiple positions (he’ll play third to start for the Marlins). Rather incredibly, with an $11m salary this season, Prado is the top paid Marlin on a team with a $325m man on its roster - the Yankees will kick in $3m of his salary, which is a theme down in Marlins camp.  Second baseman Dee Gordon, acquired from the Dodgers in a six-player deal that included Marlins top prospect Andrew Heaney, stole 64 bases, hit 12 triples and legged-out 62 hits, all league bests. That means the All-Star will be an exciting player to have around in a spacious park and a bargain considering the Dodgers agreed to pick up the $2.5m tab.  Gordon arrived in a December deal with the Dodgers that also included pitcher Dan Haren. The 34-year-old California boy was most unhappy to relocate so far from home, but after realizing he could stomach a season in FLA for his $10m salary he figured that he’d might as well show up at Marlins camp. Haren may be past his sell-by date, but since the Dodgers are also covering Harens’ salary, he’s a nice, free fit as fifth starter.  Hill also acquired Mat Latos from Cincinnati, who was limited to 16 starts in 2014, but put up a 3.07 ERA away from the Reds’ bandbox - he’ll much prefer the spacious Marlins Park. The righty is on the pricier side at $9.4m, but has great potential in such a setting.  Lot’s of trades, but there were just two free agent signings. Mike Morse is a solid piece at first base, one with both power and post-season experience and a decent price - $7m. Iconic outfielder Ichiro Suzuki was also signed to a $2m deal - the Japanese veteran with 4,122 professional hits between MLB and NPB brings along marketing benefits while adding depth to the bench.  Overall, there are nine new players on this Marlins team that won 77 games last year. Add that their dynamic left fielder Christian Yelich, who posted an OPS of .764 in his first full season at 22, was given a seven-year $49.57m contract extension in another back loaded deal, and it sure seems like despised owner Jeffery Loria is trying to make peace with his remaining fan base ... until the next fire sale, which will come once these players become expensive.  The hope is that they can win it all between now and then, which gives them roughly a three-year window.  A successful return of ace Jose Fernandez in June will be a key factor as to whether or not they can reach the playoffs this season. Henderson Alvarez stands in as ace until he returns, and and he posted a 2.65 ERA in what was a breakout 2014 All-Star season for the Venezuelan. David Phelps’ upside arrives from the Yankees. Steve Cishek is solid enough as closer in a bullpen that is above average. Jarred Cosart is, at the moment, tied up in a Major League Baseball gambling investigation - if it yields any guilt their current second starter would banned for life. Gulp.  There’s reasonable quality up and down the roster - Marcell Ozuna, just 24, posted bigger numbers than Yelich, including 23 homers and is in center field with Stanton in right field. Shortstop Adeiny Hechavarria showed signs of reaching his potential , and you never know, catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia could rebound. Couple that crew with the new arrivals and the talent is there for Mike Redmond’s Marlins to post their first winning record in 2009 and, best case scenario, to compete for their first playoff appearance since 2003.  Prediction: Fish swimming upstream. Second place, NL East.  In 2013 Fredi González’ Braves won 96 games while Turner Field doubled as a launch pad - eight players had at least 10 homers, five had at least 20 - they crushed 181 homers overall, best in the National League, finishing first in the NL East. A season later, Atlanta’s unexpected power outage was one reason why they couldn’t hang with the Washington Nationals as they finished a distant second, putting up the fifth worst home run total in the NL.  General manager John Hart responded by dealing away Evan Gattis, Jayson Heyward and Justin Upton - a loss of some 62 home runs as the team officially entered what they may prefer to call a transition rather than a full on rebuild. Hart took back seven prospects in return, in addition to Cardinals starting pitcher Shelby Miller, as the team unofficially looks to gear up in time for the opening of their new Cobb County stadium in 2017.  In the meantime the Braves are a team in transition, a club that will seek to score by manufacturing offense rather than summoning power. Runs won’t be easy to come by when you consider that their lineup is projected to accumulate a WAR of just 13.4 for the season, a total that would be 49 points less than a season ago, placing them just above the Phillies for dead last in Major League baseball. So the computer isn’t betting on the additions of starting outfielder Nick Markakis, second baseman Alberto Callaspo, and a pair of reservers - veteran catcher AJ Pierzynski (he’ll back up 22-year old backstop Christian Bethancourt), and Jonny Gomes, to help protect the slugging first baseman, Freddie Freeman, in the Braves’ lineup.  Still there’s always the chance that outfielder Melvin (BJ) Upton’s new name will help reverse two disastrous seasons in Atlanta, that third baseman Chris Johnson will recover from losing 163 points off his OPS, that sensational shortstop Andrelton Simmons will add a touch of offense to his resume, and that young second baseman Jace Peterson steals Callapsos’ job while helping this contact oriented crew maximize their offense.  Even if that all comes through, and it’s a long-shot, the back of the starting rotation is unsettled. All-Star staff ace Julio Teheran is coming off a second-straight strong season, while under-the-radar lefty Alex Wood grew into a more than reliable second starter in 2014. Former Cardinal Shelby Miller is reasonably steady as the third slot, but then you have journeyman Wandy Rodriguez and veteran Eric Stults competing with younger hurlers Cody Martin and Mike Foltynewicz for two spots, at least until Mike Minor returns from elbow inflammation.  Meanwhile, All-Star closer Craig Kimbrel will see fewer chances to save games in 2015, meaning he will be lucky to reach at least 42 saves for the fifth straight season. Hart brought in four ex-closers to set up - Jason Grili, Jim Johnson, Matt Capps and Jose Veras will make for an interesting bullpen experiment.  Actually, the whole team is an experiment, one where we’ll discover whether or not the Braves can compete in the midst of a major transition. Don’t count on it.  Prediction: Braves fall to fourth, NL East  Washington were arguably the most complete team in baseball heading into the 2014 postseason. They scored the third most runs in the National League and had the best staff ERA in all of baseball. They won 96 games before being ousted by the San Francisco Giants in the NLDS in just four games, proving one more time how MLB can make a memorable, six month regular season, mud, in just a few days. How do you protect yourself from that?  You can’t, all you can try to do is bid to improve and hope your team hits fall with all of its wheels turning.  It’s hard to know if the presence of Max Scherzer, signed this offseason for seven years and $210m, can buy the Nats anymore regular season wins, especially when Tanner Roark, the pitcher he will replace in the rotation won 15 games and posted a 2.85 ERA. What the Cy Young Award winner does have over most Nats hurlers is postseason experience. Scherzer has pitched 62.2 playoff innings, posting a 3.73 ERA, while Roark, Gio Gonzalez, Stephen Strasburg and Jordan Zimmerman have thrown 34.1 innings combined. Doug Fister, his old Tigers teammate, has thrown 55.1 innings in October. So, if postseason experience is something you hang your hat on, and I don’t, then you can justify the Scherzer addition for 2015.  More realistically, Scherzer is more of a long-term play. Both Fister and Zimmerman are free agents after the season while Gio Gonzalez has a team option after 2016. The signing ensures a core of Strasburg, Roark, Scherzer and Gonzalez until at least 2016, and that’s a good situation to be in. Meanwhile, Roark, who moves to the bullpen, provides insurance should anyone get hurt. Later this season, if all is well, GM Mike Rizzo could deal away either Fister or Zimmerman for prospects or any glaring needs heading into the playoffs.  So yes, they’ll be back in the playoffs - that’s pretty much a lock. Even if they stutter, as they did last season when they were 27-27 at the end of May before sprinting to a a 69-39 record, the Mets and Marlins just don’t have the stuff to compete with the Nats. This division could likely be won with 89 or 90 games, and Washington will easily reach such a target.  Afterall, this is more or less the same team as last year. First baseman Adam LaRoche signed with the Chicago White Sox, so now the oft-injured Ryan Zimmerman will become a full-time first baseman. If he stays healthy, that’ll work just fine, but that’s always something of an “if” with the first ever Nationals draft pick.  Otherwise, the focus at the moment is on the lineup, which could be missing three regulars on Opening Day. Anthony Rendon, who racked up a 6.5 WAR in 2014, suffered an MCL injury diving for a ball at third base that puts his opener status in doubt. Center fielder Denard Span is recovering from core muscle surgery while corner outfielder Jayson Werth continues to recover from a surgically repaired shoulder. Manager Matt Williams called his presence in the Opening Day lineup “a stretch.”  Meanwhile, Bryce Harper, now 22, is already entering his fourth MLB season, and after two injury riddled campaigns and a down year in 2015, the phenom will have a rather large chip on his shoulder. This figures to be a big year in his development - staying healthy and maturation are the theme for the outfielder.  On paper the Nats have it all, but injuries are the big fear in D.C.. With Rendon, Werth and Span on the shelf already and the chronically injured Zimmerman at first base, the biggest challenge for Washington might not come from another team, but from their own health.  Prediction: No problem for Nats, first place NL East.
MLB 2015: Does the New York Mets ascension begin now? Will the Washington Nats bring a championship to DC? Can the Marlins challenge for an East title? The Guardian checks in on the National League East