Hassan Rouhani has taken almost three years to find his voice but at last, and coincidentally one year before his first term as Iranian president runs out, the moderate cleric has become increasingly vocal and blunt.  It is a gradual, yet noticeable departure from his hitherto reserved and often indirect modus operandi. The theologian turned lawyer then president has been bolstered domestically by recent parliamentary elections, which dealt hardliners a humiliating blow, and by his success in peacefully resolving the dispute over Tehran’s nuclear dossier, the main promise on which he ran his campaign in 2013.  A careful examination of Rouhani’s speeches in recent months shows a president who appears to have become more confident about speaking his mind. He has not been shy in drawing the line on a number of contentious domestic issues, even when his views have put him at odds with the country’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.  Related: Why so many Iranians have come to hate the hijab  “Why has the president’s tone changed?” asked the reformist-leaning newspaper Aftab-e-Yazd on its front page on Wednesday. The president, the Iranian daily said, had “become more determined and firmer … he talks about issues that he refused to address in the past”. Parliamentary results are the clue, it added. Reformist-leaning candidates and independents allied with Rouhani will hold a majority, albeit not an absolute one, in the next parliament. And, for the first time since the 1979 revolution, there will be more women than clerics in the parliament.  Saeed Barzin, a London-based Iranian analyst, described Rouhani as a soloist in a big orchestra. “You’re hearing the music and unexpectedly he plays his instrument, drawing all the attention,” Barzin said. “Rouhani is a moderate, pragmatist politician but every so often he says something all of a sudden and recently he does this more often and does that with greater confidence and courage.”  Recent examples of this include a speech at Tehran’s international book fair. “A critic’s place is not in prison,” the president told publishers and members of the Iranian intelligentsia, acknowledging the plight of many writers and journalists held in Iranian prisons. “We need to provide security and freedom to our writers. It is a blessing to have a critic,” he added.  In a separate speech, he made clear he opposed attempts to bar a female MP from the next parliament apparently because of allegations she did not observe the compulsory hijab rule during a trip abroad. The Guardian Council, an unelected powerful body in charge of vetting candidates, has so far refused to issue her credentials even though she has won a seat.  In a separate speech, Rouhani reacted strongly to news about the police’s deployment of undercover agents tasked with cracking down on women’s not wearing the hajib, saying: “We have no right to interfere in our people’s public and private lives outside what has been outlined in the law,” he said.  “Some wake up in the morning and come up with new regulations,” he continued, before saying they had no right to do so.  While Barzin points to the nuclear deal with the west and the parliamentary vote as the reasons why Rouhani increasingly speaks out, the analyst also believes that Iran’s political system appears to show more leeway in tolerating opposing views within itself. “We have entered a new phase in which different political factions in Iran have recognised there is multipolarity among those within the system,” Barzin said. “It doesn’t appear to be a politics of elimination and I don’t think either Rouhani or Khamenei are seeking to stand against each other or eliminate one another.”  Ahmad Salamatian, a former Iranian MP now based in Paris, said Rouhani was becoming more vocal in response to the supreme leader interjecting on often trivial domestic matters. “We’re merely hearing the president more lately and that’s because Khamenei has become more persistent in expressing his views, views which often are in contrast with those held by the government.”  Both men have had a go at each other in recent months, although without directly saying who they are referring to. In his Persian new year’s address Rouhani spoke of the second Barjam (deal), a reference to building on the international nuclear accord and to also finding an agreement internally. Khamenei condemned such approach within hours in his own public address.  Recently Khamenei said insisting on the promotion of English language was wrong. Rouhani, who was a postgrad student at Glasgow Caledonian University in the 1990s, responded by saying it was up to people which language they preferred to study. Some fear that he risks running foul of Khamenei. A former MP, Ali Tajernia, told Iran’s Arman daily this week that some influential figures had warned the president not to run for a second term.  Salamatian, however, said Rouhani knew his limits and was not seeking to confront Khamenei: “I believe compared to previous presidents including the reformist Mohammad Khatami, Rouhani has been more successful in defending whatever is allowed within powers given to a president under this system.”  The white-turban-wearing Rouhani is described as an ultimate insider, having held several sensitive jobs in the Islamic Republic.  Ali Alizadeh, a London-based political analyst, echoed Salamatian’s view that it was Khamenei who had become more blunt. However, he was not sure whether Rouhani could shield himself in the long term from the supreme leader.  “Khamenei is trying to both find a legacy for his leadership and also organise fundamentalists, thus appearing in the role of a political party leader. These have made Khamenei and Rouhani to draw their lines in a way that is more noticeable,” said Alizadeh.  Experts inside Iran remain reluctant to discuss the issue. But Gholamhossein Karbaschi, a former mayor of Tehran and a senior politician close to Rouhani’s camp, said he did not detect any change in the president’s language. “He is not saying anything that is radical, against the norm or anti-moderation,” he told the Guardian. “The sort of things he is saying now, he has been saying for three years n various occasions.”  Although Rouhami remains popular, the prospect of him securing a second term in next year’s presidential elections remains far from certain. The nuclear deal has soothed threats of war and created some internal stability but it has not yet borne fruit on the economic side.  Western businesses eager to return to doing business in Iran have found it more difficult than initially thought, especially because of a reluctance on the part of European banks to handle Iranian payments owing to existing US sanctions relating to terrorism. Iran has repeatedly called on the US to do more to reassure banks about dealing with Iran post-nuclear sanctions. Some experts fear that US intransigence on the matter may as well cost Rouhani his second term if people in Iran run out of patience while waiting to see the economic benefits of the nuclear agreement.  There has been criticism of Rouhani putting the issue of social freedoms on the back burner while devoting almost two years of his presidency to the nuclear negotiation, a priority of both his administration and the people who elected him. The president has finally raised his voice, but the limits of his power and how much he can do in a system with parallel unelected bodies remain clear.
President has become increasingly vocal, bolstered perhaps by recent election results and nuclear deal. But there may be a price