9:25 p.m. update: A quick update on the July 4 forecast – Scattered showers are a decent bet in the morning but should decrease in the afternoon. While we can’t rule out an isolated shower or storm around fireworks time, it seems more likely than not it will be dry.  [D.C. July 4 fireworks forecast: Probably dry, just outside chance of a shower]  6:20 p.m. update: Showers have finally reached the Beltway, moving to the northeast. Rain seems likely to continue on and off through most of the evening. It’s just a light rain for the most part, with scattered areas of moderate rain.  12:15 p.m. update: Despite some high clouds, we ended up with a fairly sunny morning. Clouds are now increasing from southwest to northeast and increased odds of rain will follow.  The forecast is more or less on target, but precipitation may be running a little behind schedule given how things have played out thus far.  It currently seems that much of the widespread rain risk comes this evening through the overnight, and perhaps into tomorrow. A few front-running showers are still possible this afternoon. Below are model simulations for the NAM and HRRR for 8 p.m. Both show showers and rain advancing in from the southwest during the evening.  The best odds of rain prior to the hours around sunset should mostly be southwest of D.C., with raindrops tending to spread over the rest of the region in the near sunset to near midnight range. At least periodic showers then continue for a good portion of the night, and possibly into portions of tomorrow. It does seem things should wind down by mid-to-late day on the 4th.  We’ll have an update to the forecast for Independence Day this afternoon.  TODAY’S DAILY DIGIT A somewhat subjective rating of the day’s weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.  4/10: 70s may feel pleasant, but our saturated ground doesn’t need any more rain. Some is around again.  Today: Mostly cloudy, PM downpours possible. Highs: Mid-70s to near 80. Tonight: Mostly cloudy, spots of rain. Lows: Mid-60s to around 70. Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy. Showers? Highs: Upper 70s to low 80s. Sunday: Trending clearer. PM storm? Highs: 81-88.  Umbrella toting is recommended today, and perhaps through the weekend. Fortunately for the 4th, today is looking like the wettest day of our (extended) weekend. Rain and storms become more likely this afternoon. But, as those who have been around the past few weeks know, we can’t discount even scattered showers/storms dropping a quick downpour here and there this weekend. Next week looks calmer and drier. More standard summer weather to resume. We just need to dry out a bit! Please!  Today (Friday): Watch out for some morning fog. From there, mostly cloudy with at least scattered downpours a growing possibility especially so by afternoon into evening. Live near or in a flood-prone area? Keep an eye on things. It doesn’t take a lot to cause flooding with such wet ground. And remember NEVER drive through a submerged portion of road. Showers, rain, storms keep our high temperatures in the mid-70s to around 80, warmest if we see a peek of sunshine. Rainfall totals are not expected to be uniformly large, but some higher numbers could come in under slow-moving downpours. Light easterly breezes from 5-10 mph assist with moisture siphoning off of the ocean and Bay. Confidence: Medium  Tonight: It’s mainly cloudy and we’ve got some more showers, some maybe heavy, around. A couple still could access our moist, muggy atmosphere and dump another downpour or two. Low temperatures barely cool at all, only to around 70 downtown. Mid-60s in the “luckier” and cooler suburbs. Light easterly breezes continue around 5 mph. Rain chances around 50% early fall to about 30% after midnight. Confidence: Medium  For related traffic news, check out Dr. Gridlock. Keep reading for the forecast into next week…  [D.C. July 4 fireworks forecast: Slight chance of showers and storms, mild]  Tomorrow (Independence Day): Sunshine probably says hello a few times, but clouds may still dominate. It’s a day around here, so of course there’s a rain threat. The best odds of rain are probably afternoon into early evening. Our muggy air mass may feel like July 4th, but temperatures may be graciously less hot than we often see. Only upper 70s to low 80s, warmest south of town mainly. North breezes could kick in at around 5 mph and dehumidify us just a tad? Confidence: Medium  Tomorrow night (fireworks!): Scattered storms and showers are going to do their best to die down but there’s still a 40% chance of getting wet into mid-evening. Luckily nothing so far threatens to be severe, so delays more likely than display cancellations. For now I’d lean toward the shows getting in without issue, especially D.C. and west. Temperatures at show time should be relatively comfortable in the 70s, going down to 70 by dawn, downtown, and mid-60s outside the Beltway. If looking for good news on the rain, it shouldn’t be prone to being as widespread nor as heavy as in previous days. Just wait a few minutes and it may stop raining. Confidence: Medium  Sunday: Clouds should tend to clear through the day and we might even eke out a dry one. Only a 20% chance of getting wet in an afternoon shower. Temperatures warm more under the additional sunshine, into the 81-88 degree range. We’ll have to watch this one as a contender for a pseudo nice day award if it breaks right. Confidence: Medium  Sunday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Pre-dawn temperatures downtown bottom out near 70, with low-to-mid 60s possible outside of the Beltway. Keep that A/C running? Not quite an open-window night. Confidence: Low-Medium  Our workweek starts off in a usual July manner: warm and slightly muggy; but not oppressive on Monday and Tuesday. High temperatures in the mid-80s to near 90 and dew points in the mid-to-upper 60s (moist but not quite tropical amounts of water vapor in the air). Standard fare around here. Skies on Monday may be a bit cloudier than Tuesday, but a mix of sun and clouds can be expected both days. And a bit of haze, too. Currently rain chances are low, at around 10-15%. Can our sub-90 degree streak continue? If we stay below 90, this would make the 13th/14th day in a row without 90s. Confidence: Low-Medium  Ian Livingston is a forecaster/photographer and information lead for the Capital Weather Gang. By day, Ian is a defense and national security researcher at a D.C. think tank.
More rain is ahead, but with some luck it won't damage holiday plans too heavily. Clouds and rain chances are keeping things "cool" at least.