However, market participants do not seem to be factoring in much risk to the U.S. economy from the recent round of negative headlines. Participants still see 2.9 percent growth next year, unchanged from the September survey, and about 70 basis points better than this year. They also forecast a very low probability of recession—just 15 percent—in the next 12 months.  The rosy outlook has its doubters, including Thomas Costerg from Chartered Bank, who writes, "The consensus has tended to overestimate U.S. GDP growth and my worry is that expectations for 2015 are starting from a high point; there is a risk of disappointment, once again. The U.S. consumer may be in a more fragile state than expected.''  Market participants rate the European economic slowdown as the biggest global risk. They are twice as worried about Europe as they are about the economic threat from the spread of Ebola. After Europe, the next biggest risk is seen as a slowdown in Asia, followed by ISIS and troubles in Ukraine and Russia.  Read MoreS&P warns Europe crisis not over, France output falls  Three quarters of respondents to CNBC's October Fed Survey see the European Central Bank launching an outright quantitative easing program, with the average respondent believing it will come as soon as February. European economic weakness has catapulted into the No. 1 threat facing the U.S. economic recovery as well, eclipsing both slow job growth and tax and regulatory issues. But the Street is still attaching a low probability to QE 4; just 18.4 percent believe the Fed will launch a new QE program in the two years after the current one ends, up 4 points from the September survey. A full 97 percent say the current QE program will be ended at the meeting this month.  Fed policy still appears to enjoy modest support from this group of respondents, with 49 percent saying policy is "just right," up from 43 percent in the September survey. Still, a substantial 44 percent say the central bank is too accommodative.  Market participants seem unconcerned with the risk either of inflation or deflation, with both ranking low on the list of risks to the U.S. recovery. The Consumer Price Index is seen rising by 2 percent in 2015, down from the forecast in the prior survey of 2.3 percent.  Read MoreWorried on low inflation, Fed seen offering soothing words  "The Fed has consistently missed its (2 percent) target on inflation,'' said Diane Swonk of Mesirow Financial. "The Fed will have to more aggressively combat slowing inflation going forward; this is yet another reason for gradualism.''  Recent market turmoil has taken a toll on optimism for equities. Respondents shaved 38 points off their outlook for the S&P 500 for the end of 2015, and now see a 2,111 level. The outlook for the 10-year yield also was marked down to just 2.9 percent by next June, compared with the prior average of 3.16 percent.
A month of worrisome headlines has markets believing in a more dovish Federal Reserve, according to the latest CNBC Fed Survey.