Improbable versus Impossible: Is ID an argument from incredulity?
In a previous post, I presented a logical, factual argument for the existence of God. But one of my readers, Seanny McShawn, took issue with my syllogisms, saying that I was simply making an argument “from incredulity”. When someone tries to win an argument based on simple probabilities, this is called an “argument from incredulity.” This is a logical fallacy. In other words, the sheer unlikeliness of a scenario does not preclude its possibility and cannot be proof against it. But was I arguing from “incredulity”? Physicists estimate that in our universe there are 1080 particles. Mathematicians say that the mathematical level of absolute impossibility is 1 chance in 1050. However, the physical level of absolute impossibility is 1 chance in 1080, and here’s why: On the basic level, probability is defined by the ‘particle’ example: finding a specially marked particle among 500,000 particles is beating odds of 1 in 500,000. In a universe that has 1080 individual particles, the most improbable scenario is finding a specially marked particle in the entire universe. Due to the size of our universe, it is impossible to have a more improbable set of odds than 1 chance in 1080. Anything that is more improbable than the most improbable is by all standards absolutely impossible. Mr. McShawn also took issue with the famous atheist Sir Fred Hoyle’s calculations that the probability of producing life by chance is 1 in 1040,000. So, last night I ran a set of calculations that should clear up the problem. I found that Sir Hoyle’s calculations were, in fact, incorrect. Life is composed of proteins. Proteins are highly organized arrangements of amino acids. The Miller-Urey experiments showed that under certain finely tuned circumstances, amino acids can be produced. These amino acids were in the wrong balance to support life, but the experiment did show that intricate design is not absolutely necessary to create them. So let us assume, for the sake of argument, that in the primordial ooze billions of years ago enough amino acids were produced in the right concentration to provide the building blocks of life. Let us further posit that, through some volcanic or hydrologic freezing cycle, natural bond energies arranged themselves in such a way as to intricately fold millions of amino acids into the perfect proteins necessary for the next prebiotic step. Let us further assume that these proteins, through lowest energy bond formations, aligned themselves in such a way as to form a double helix of deoxyribonucleic acid, or DNA. At the same time, an equal amount of RNA was produced to help copy the DNA in the absence of ribosomes. Nature magazine has done several extensive studies to investigate the absolutely simplest reproducing life form. According to this article, the simplest bacteria would require only a few basic functions: the ability to ingest raw materials, convert them into amino acids, synthesize the acids into proteins, and arrange the proteins to make a cell wall, more DNA, and more protein building cell mechanisms. To have these functions, Nature estimates that at minimum 200 genes would be required. According to Wikipedia, the average bacterial gene has around 1000 base pairs, for a total of 200,000 “bits” of information necessary to sustain life. Each “bit” has four possibilities: A, T, G, and C. These are the four proteins which comprise the “rungs” on the ladder of the DNA double helix. With 4 possible values for each of the 200,000 base pairs, the odds of getting the first base pair correct is 1 in 4. The odds of getting the first two base pairs correct is 1 in 4 x 4, or 1 in 16. The odds of getting 200,000 base pairs in the correct order are as follows: 1 chance in 1.0 x 10120,412 Remember that it is physically impossible, in this universe, for random chance processes to defeat any odd greater than 1 in 1080. Such being the case, the verdict for DNA arranging itself in a manner favorable to life is 101505 times the level of absolute physical impossibility. And the odds are not that much better if we reduce the gene requirement to only one gene. The chance of randomly selecting a single gene correctly is 1 in 6.5 x 101113. Even if all the genes had already been written somehow, the chance of getting them in the correct order (the only order in which reproduction is possible) is 1 in 1.6 x 10460. This is not an argument from incredulity. This is an argument from facts: cold, hard facts. Since any set of odds above 1 in 1080 is absolutely impossible, random chance could not and did not produce life. Speaking of which, try listening to this song by Mike Reese. I am sure you will enjoy it. If you cannot play the clip from this page, you can try clicking here. Any questions? In Him, David S. MacMillan III