I’ll be expanding this posting over time. For right now, I’m putting up a skeleton just to anchor the space and get me doing something.
So what is a Bond Event? They are abnormally cold periods that happen about every 1470 years. We are likely headed into one now, IMHO. While the world panics over heating, it ought ot be planning how to grow more wheat without northern fields like Canada or northern Eurasia.
I’d hoped to not last long enough to reach the next Bond Event, however, we have 3 nagging little points:
1) It’s a 1470 year or so cycle and the last one started about 1470 years ago… take a look at what was happening in about 530 to 540 A.D. It was cold, and dark, and the sun wasn’t very bright… In fact, they called it The Dark Ages.
2) The sun has gone very very quiet. Not pleasing in the context of #1.
3) We’ve had a sudden onset of more cold and more snow at the poles with the oceans cooling starting in 2003 (it takes a while to cool a few gigatons of water…)
Now to me it’s pretty clear that we have a very warm ocean (and will for a few more years) especially in the tropics, putting lots of water into the air – being by definition hot and humid, not snowy… That air then hits a very very cold polar region and dumps boat loads of snow. That than accelerates the run to the cold side…
So we will be in this ‘battle ground’ state for a few more years, but only as long as it takes to cool the ocean enough to make us really wish for the good old days of a warm climate with plenty of food to eat.
Please note: Computer climate models don’t mean a darned thing if they can not explain Bond Events:
It is my opinion that we are watching the early stages of an entry into a Bond Event (and will be for the next 30 years or so) and I can only hope that we find a way to mitigate the extreme cold that is headed our way with the attendant crop failures at northern latitudes. We ought to know in about 15 years… geological time is slow like that, even the fast whip of a 1500 year cycle takes decades to observe at the inflection points.
So welcome to “Bond Event Zero” (copyright E.M. Smith) hold on to your hats, it’s going to be a bumpy ride…
You can expect crop failures, some modest famine, and wars fought over warm places to live. The history of these cold periods (where the historical episodes were named “pessimums” before we knew they were periodic) is not encouraging.
“The Iron Age Cold Epoch (also referred to as Iron Age climate pessimum or Iron Age neoglaciation) was a period of unusually cold climate in the North Atlantic region, lasting from about 900 BC to about 300 BC, with an especially cold wave in 450 BC during the expansion of ancient Greece. It was followed by the Roman Age Optimum (200 BC – 300 AD).”
“The Migration Period Pessimum (also referred to as Dark Ages Cold Period) was a period of cold climate in the North Atlantic region, lasting from about 450 to about 900 AD. It succeeded the Roman Age Optimum and was followed by the Medieval Warm Period.
This Migration Period Pessimum saw the retreat of agriculture, including pasturing as well as cultivation of crops, leading to reforestation in large areas of central Europe and Scandinavia. This period corresponds to the time following the Decline of the Roman Empire around 480 and the Plague of Justinian (541-542). Climatically this period was one of rapid cooling indicated from tree-ring data as well as sea surface temperatures based on diatom stratigraphy in Norwegian Sea, which can be correlated with Bond event 1 in the North Atlantic sediments. It was also a period of rising lake levels, increased bog growth and a peak in lake catchment erosion.”
And just until I get a better layout done, here is the text from the wiki page on Bond Events:
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
(Redirected from 1500-year climate cycle)
Temperature proxies from GISP2 plus Bond events
Bond events are North Atlantic climate fluctuations occurring every ≈1,470 years throughout the Holocene. Eight such events have been identified. Bond events may be the interglacial relatives of the glacial Dansgaard-Oeschger events.
The theory of 1,500-year climate cycles in the Holocene was postulated by Gerard C. Bond of the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory at Columbia University, mainly based on petrologic tracers of drift ice in the North Atlantic.
The existence of climatic changes, possibly on a quasi-1,500 year cycle, is well established for the last glacial period from ice cores. Less well established is the continuation of these cycles into the holocene. Bond et al. (1997) argue for a climate cyclicity close to 1470 ± 500 years in the North Atlantic region. In their view, many if not most of the Dansgaard-Oeschger events of the last ice age, conform to a 1,500-year pattern, as do some climate events of later eras, like the Little Ice Age, the 8.2 kiloyear event, and the start of the Younger Dryas.
The North Atlantic ice-rafting events happen to correlate with most weak events of the Asian monsoon over the past 9,000 years, as well as with most aridification events in the Middle East. Also, there is widespread evidence that a ≈1,500 yr climate oscillation caused changes in vegetation communities across all of North America.
For reasons that are unclear, the only Holocene Bond event that has a clear temperature signal in the Greenland ice cores is the 8.2 kyr event.
The hypothesis holds that the 1,500-year cycle displays nonlinear behavior and stochastic resonance; not every instance of the pattern is a significant climate event, though some rise to major prominence in environmental history. Causes and determining factors of the cycle are under study; researchers have focused attention on patterns of tides, variations in solar output, and “reorganizations of atmospheric circulation.”
List of Bond events
Most Bond events do not have a clear climate signal; some correspond to periods of cooling, others are coincident with aridification in some regions.
≈1,400 BP (Bond event 1) — roughly correlates with the Migration Period Pessimum (450–900 AD)
≈2,800 BP (Bond event 2) — roughly correlates with the Iron Age Cold Epoch (900–300 BC)
≈4,200 BP (Bond event 3) — correlates with the 4.2 kiloyear event
≈5,900 BP (Bond event 4) — correlates with the 5.9 kiloyear event
≈8,100 BP (Bond event 5) — correlates with the 8.2 kiloyear event
≈9,400 BP (Bond event 6) — correlates with the Erdalen event of glacier activity in Norway, as well as with a cold event in China.
≈10,300 BP (Bond event 7) — unnamed event
≈11,100 BP (Bond event 8) — coincides with the transition from the Younger Dryas to the boreal
Bond, G.; et al. (1997). “A Pervasive Millennial-Scale Cycle in North Atlantic Holocene and Glacial Climates”. Science 278 (5341): 1257–1266. doi:10.1126/science.278.5341.1257.
Bond, G.; et al. (2001). “Persistent Solar Influence on North Atlantic Climate During the Holocene”. Science 294 (5549): 2130–2136. doi:10.1126/science.1065680.
Gupta, Anil K.; Anderson, David M.; Overpeck, Jonathan T. (2003). “Abrupt changes in the Asian southwest monsoon during the Holocene and their links to the North Atlantic Ocean”. Nature 421 (6921): 354–357. doi:10.1038/nature01340.
Yongjin Wang; et al. (2005). “The Holocene Asian Monsoon: Links to Solar Changes and North Atlantic Climate”. Science 308 (5723): 854–857. doi:10.1126/science.1106296.
Parker, Adrian G.; et al. (2006). “A record of Holocene climate change from lake geochemical analyses in southeastern Arabia”. Quaternary Research 66 (3): 465–476. doi:10.1016/j.yqres.2006.07.001.
Viau, André E.; et al. (2002). “Widespread evidence of 1,500 yr climate variability in North America during the past 14 000 yr”. Geology 30 (5): 455–458. doi:10.1130/0091-7613(2002)0302.0.CO;2.
a b Cox, John D. (2005). Climate Crash: Abrupt Climate Change and What It Means for Our Future. Washington DC: Joseph Henry Press. pp. 150–155. ISBN 0309093120.
Swindles, Graeme T.; Plunkett, Gill; Roe, Helen M. (2007). “A delayed climatic response to solar forcing at 2800 cal. BP: multiproxy evidence from three Irish peatlands”. The Holocene 17 (2): 177–182. doi:10.1177/0959683607075830.
Dahl, Svein Olaf; et al. (2002). “Timing, equilibrium-line altitudes and climatic implications of two early-Holocene glacier readvances during the Erdalen Event at Jostedalsbreen, western Norway”. The Holocene 12 (1): 17–25. doi:10.1191/0959683602hl516rp.
Zhou Jing; Wang Sumin; Yang Guishan; Xiao Haifeng (2007). “Younger Dryas Event and Cold Events in Early-Mid Holocene: Record from the sediment of Erhai Lake”. Advances in Climate Change Research 3 (Suppl.): 1673–1719.