Millions with the capability to misuse biotech will have access to biomedical labs, just as millions can misuse cybertech today.
My worst nightmare is an “eco-fanatic”, empowered by the biohacking expertise that may be routine by 2050, who thinks that “Gaia” can only be saved if the human population is reduced. The global village will have its village idiots, and they will have global range.
What about other future technologies — computers and robotics, for instance?
We’re witnessing a momentous speed-up in artificial intelligence (AI) – in the power of machines to learn, communicate and interact with us. Computers don’t learn like we do: they use “brute force” methods. They learn to translate from foreign languages by reading multilingual versions of, for example, millions of pages of EU documents (they never get bored). They learn to recognise dogs, cats and human faces by crunching through millions of images — not the way a baby learns
AI will take over a wider range of jobs – not just manual work but accountancy, routine legal work, medical diagnostics and surgery. And the big question is then: will AI be like earlier disruptive technologies – the car, for instance – which created as many jobs as they destroyed? Or is it really different this time?
Let me briefly deploy an astronomical perspective and speculate about the really far future – the post-human era. There are chemical and metabolic limits to the size and processing power of organic brains. Maybe humans are close to these limits already. But there are no such constraints on silicon-based computers (still less, perhaps, quantum computers): for these, the potential for further development could be as dramatic as the evolution from monocellular organisms to humans. So, by any definition of “thinking”, the amount and intensity that’s done by organic human-type brains will, in the far future, be utterly swamped by the cerebrations of AI. Moreover, the Earth’s biosphere in which organic life has symbiotically evolved is not a constraint for advanced AI. Indeed, it is far from optimal – interplanetary and interstellar space will be the preferred arena where robotic fabricators will have the grandest scope for construction, and where non-biological “brains” may develop insights as far beyond our imaginings as string theory is for a mouse.