March has the most violent tornadoes, EF2 or higher, in Florida. (Credit: NWS-Tampa)
It’s been a stormy winter throughout the Florida peninsula, typical of a strong El Niño year. Expect severe weather threats to continue into March, when historically the largest number of powerful tornadoes have occurred in the state.
That means, EF2 or higher, according to the National Weather Service. An F2 packs winds between 113-157 mph. An F4 goes up to 260 mph.
The number of violent tornadoes drops off significantly in April and again in May before resurging in June, according to data published by the NWS in Tampa. July is the month with the fewest violent tornadoes in Florida.
June is the month with the most tornadoes, of any strength, in the state. (NWS-Tampa)
When you include all tornadoes, however, the highest number occurs in June, based on records from 1950 to 2015.
El Niño impacts should be tapering off in Florida “as we get more into spring,” said forecaster Nicole Carlisle at the NWS in Tampa. “In the next couple of months is when we’ll start seeing the difference.”
But for now, don’t be surprised to see a few more nail-biter storms from South Florida up to the panhandle.
South Florida should begin to transition out of the El Nino severe weather pattern around mid-April, said David Zierden, Florida’s state climatologist. The reason is that the subtropical jet stream responsible for much of the severe weather begins to migrate north, said Zierden, of Florida State University.
“The tornado threats last even longer in the panhandle. Down in South Florida, tornadoes are relatively rare — except during El Nino years,” he said. “As we get into late April and May the threat goes away.”
Zierden said many of the June tornadoes in Florida are waterspouts that spin off the ocean and on to land.
On related note, Zierden says it’s likely that El Niño, which is already starting to weaken, will transition into a La Niña by the end of summer or early fall. Most strong El Niños tend to rebound all the way to La Niña phases, he says, characterized by cooler-than-normal waters in the tropical Pacific.
The cool Pacific tends to relax wind shear in the tropical Atlantic.
“Chances are good we’ll see a more active hurricane season,” he said.