|Key to charts
|Change in average temperature: Polar regions
(°C per ten years)
Large increases in average polar temperature
are to be expected for each of the scenarios, especially in the
Arctic. The graph clearly shows that the change of temperature between
2002 and 2032 is far larger than the uncertainty.
Source: IMAGE 2.2 (see technical
These differences, combined with the impacts on
polar areas of activities and processes in other parts of the world, translate
into a varied range of environmental implications under the four scenarios.
Large increases in average polar temperatures are to be expected in all
the scenarios, especially in the Arctic (see chart). Policy First and
Sustainability First feature the highest increases up to 2032,
reflecting the rapid abatement of emissions of sulphur oxides under these
scenarios. Warming in Antarctica is less pronounced on account of the
ocean currents in the area.
In Security First, both areas suffer from proliferation of illegal
production of ozone depleting substances, which obliterates the gains
made earlier, in the late 20th and early 21st centuries. Likewise, chemical
pollutants originating from outside the region increase significantly
in Security First due to weak regulation and in Markets First,
where economic growth is higher. In Policy First and Sustainability
First, efforts to phase out pollutants effectively terminate these