By Chen Qin
BEIJING (Caixin Online) — Nearly 60 years since the armistice ending the Korean War was signed, Pyongyang has again announced it was withdrawing from the ceasefire agreement.
On March 5, a spokesperson for the Korean People’s Army Supreme Command vowed the country would nullify the 1953 agreement, citing ongoing U.S.-South Korean joint military drills that Pyongyang said were preparations for an invasion.
The North’s military also threatened to block a communications line between it and the United States at a border village separating the two Koreas.
This is at least the fifth such statement Pyongyang has made over the past decade, and most were reactions to U.S.-South Korean military drills. The last was made in 2009 amid international pressure regarding its nuclear program.
It should be noted that the 1953 agreement is an armistice, not a peace accord. Technically at least, the Korean War never ended despite the fact the two sides haven’t fought a battle for more than 60 years.
From a legal perspective, the North has no right to unilaterally scrap the agreement. Under the armistice, any amendments and additions to the agreement require discussion by both sides.
It also stipulates the agreement will remain in effect until expressly superseded either by mutually acceptable changes, or a peace settlement negotiated by politicians on both sides.
U.S., China agree upon more sanctions against North
A month after North Korea fired off a nuclear weapons test, China and the U.S. reached a deal on a set of sanctions to be announced at a U.N. Security Council meeting Tuesday.
So far, neither the six-party talks, nor any meetings involving the two sides, have produced any agreement to replace the 1953 armistice. Therefore, the document remains valid.
Thus, Pyongyang’s repeated announcements can be seen as a gesture to press Seoul and Washington for political purposes. What makes this time different is that the North recently completed a nuclear test. It hopes other countries will accept the situation, which would strengthen its position in the international community.
Due to the North’s development of nuclear power and stagnant talks, the window for denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula is closing. The room for future discussion has shrunk.
In the short term, small conflicts could break out between the North and South. However, a large-scale conflict is less likely, unless Pyongyang makes a serious misjudgment.