It seems that humanity has just escaped a fairly large space globe.
Two large pieces fragments of the orbit – the non-existent Soviet navigation satellite and the spent Chinese missile corps – apparently, on Thursday evening (October 15) they safely passed each other high over the South Atlantic.
Space surveillance company in California LeoLabs warned the world in advance to a close event that occurred at 8:56 p.m. EDT (October 16, 1256 GMT), when the two ships flew 991 kilometers above Earth off the coast of Antarctica.
Analysis before the LeoLabs meeting suggested that the two objects missed each other by only 25 feet (18 meters), plus or minus 59 feet (18 meters) – figures that collided very strongly. In fact, LeoLabs calculated the chances of defeat above 10%.
Explanation of space debris: the threat of orbital debris (infographics)
No signs of collision. The ZCZ-4C R / B was transmitted by LeoLabs Kiwi space radar 10 minutes after TCA. Our data shows only one object, as we hoped, without signs of debris. We will continue to work on Medium in the coming days with a full detailed risk assessment of this event!
But scans of the company after the meetings show that the nightmare scenario did not materialize.
“No signs of collision. CZ-4C R / B transmitted via LeoLabs Kiwi space radar 10 minutes after TCA. Our data show only one object, as we expected, without signs of debris. We will monitor them in the coming days on Medium with a full in-depth risk assessment of this event! “LeoLabs tweeted on Thursday evening. .
The “nightmare scenario” is not really an exaggeration. The dead Russian satellite and the Chinese rocket hull have a total mass of about 6,170 pounds. (2,800 pounds), LeoLabs said tweet on tuesday (October 13). The two bodies raced toward each other at a relative speed of 32,900 mph (52,950 km / h), so the collision would have been incredibly devastating, creating a huge cloud of debris.
Defeat would most likely lead to a “significant (10 to 20 percent) increase in LEO [low Earth orbit] astronomer and satellite tracker Jonathan McDowell, who works at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, said via Twitter on Wednesday.
This garbage environment is already significant. Scientists estimate that about 34,000 objects more than 4 inches (10 centimeters) wide are currently orbiting the Earth. European Space Agency. And the numbers get scarier the less you go. There are probably 900,000 or so orbital objects in orbit from 0 to 4 inches (1 to 10 cm) and 128 million in the range of 0.04 inches to 0.4 inches (1 mm to 1 cm).
Even these tiny spots can cause significant damage to the satellite due to the high speeds involved. For example, 400 miles (400 km) up – the height of the International Space Station, which had to maneuver from three possible collisions of space debris only in 2020 – the volume of the barrel moves at a speed of 28,500 km / h.
For @Leolabs_space the bullet dodged. But space debris is still a big problem. October 16, 2020
Orbital collisions are not just sci-fi movies like 2013’s Gravity. For example, in 2009, a non-existent Russian military satellite called “Space 2251” crashed into an operational communications satellite “Iridium 33”, generating 1800 pieces of tracked garbage by October next year (and many others, too small for monitoring).
And, not surprisingly, humanity has deliberately generated clouds of garbage twice – during the devastating tests of anti-satellite technology conducted in 2007 and 2019. China and Indiain accordance.
The problem of debris will continue to grow as more and more satellites are launched into space, a trend that is accelerating due to the ever-decreasing costs of both launch and satellite development. And the problem could get out of hand, which poses a serious threat to spaceflight and reconnaissance, if we don’t address it now, say many experts
“According to @Leolabs_space, the bullet dodged. But space debris is still a big problem,” McDowell told another tweet on Thursday night.
Mike Wall is the author of “There” (Grand Central Publishing, 2018; illustrated by Carl Tate), a book about the search for an alien life. Follow him on Twitter @michaeldwall. Follow us on Twitter @Spacedotcom or Facebook.