Australia is underprepared for the security implications of climate change, while our key military allies, like the US and Britain, are bustling to get ready.
While domestic discussion of climate change is lost in a sea of partisanship and inaction, abroad, the rhetoric and response has changed decisively.
The G7 recently promised to decarbonise the most powerful global economies by the end of the century. The Pope has called for "decisive action, here and now". China is expected to announce an ambitious Intended Nationally Determined Contribution by the end of the month. Yet, in Australia, discussion of climate impacts is akin to trench warfare.
Australia's recalcitrance is cause for significant concern, considering the effects of climate change will be increasingly felt by 2030 and will only get worse by 2050. We have entered an era where some level of climate change is inevitable. How bad it becomes is, thankfully, still a question residing with us.
Nationally, we are not grappling with the impact of climate change in economic, environmental and societal terms. This includes the very real and emerging effect it will have on our national security in Asia and the Pacific.
Research released on Monday by the Centre for Policy Development found Australia is exposed to the new risks from climate change, unlike our key allies.
The US and Britain are preparing for the incoming climate security challenges. In the US, the Pentagon, and in Britain, the Ministry of Defence have a suite of national security strategies addressing climate change as a national security threat and laying a framework for action.
Climate change is a unique 21st-century conflict. It is pervasive and penetrating. It will affect all countries indiscriminately – advanced nations, emerging economies and fragile states. It will also exacerbate other security challenges in our region.
Conventional thinking in Australia is that we are positioned on the doorstep of unfolding economic expansion and opportunity in east Asia. This is an exciting and transformative regional development. What we have not realised is that we are situated at the frontline of emerging climate crises. Our region is the most vulnerable in the world. Asia is a precarious mix of dense urbanisation, low-lying coastal areas, rapacious resource demand and catastrophic natural disasters.
Seven out of 10 of the world's most vulnerable countries to climate change are in the Asia-Pacific. Asia has 90 per cent of the world's risk of tropical cyclones.
By 2030, about 880 million people will live in low coastal zones vulnerable to storm surges and sea-level rises, with 70 per cent of these living in Asia. Hence, it is no surprise that the head of the US Pacific Command, Admiral Samuel Locklear, has called climate change the biggest long-term security threat in the Asia-Pacific region.
Australia has a constructive role to play with our regional partners and neighbours alike in mitigating these impacts.
Climatic impacts also make unstable political and security environments more tenuous. Examples are emerging from the Middle East where climate change (particularly severe drought) is a factor in the regional instability seen before the Arab Awakening.
Climate change will undermine peace and stability in our region as demand for food, water and energy increases sharply, as our neighbours have communities and infrastructure battered by storms surges and cyclones, and as agricultural livelihoods are affected by extreme weather.
This is unwelcome, yet unavoidable in a region experiencing a shift in power dynamics between emerging and major powers. Any material deterioration in the security landscape in Asia inevitably affects Australia.
Australia needs a sophisticated national approach to understanding climate security impacts. Our inaction to date means we are missing out on our opportunity to deepen our engagement with the region and our corresponding commitment to advance its collective human security. Whether we like it or not, our defence forces are likely to be called upon more regularly for humanitarian relief and stability operations at home and abroad.
The Australian Defence Force must be given the scope to manage the risks from climate change proactively in order to safeguard our security. The next Defence white paper, which is due out later this year, is the instrument through which Australia can begin to take climate security seriously again. It should lay out a strategic direction to deal with the climate security challenge and outline the capabilities required to do this most effectively.
We have a well-regarded military and a formidable defence establishment. However, without adequate planning, there is the risk our defence forces will be overwhelmed by competing demands to conduct regional humanitarian missions caused or influenced by climate change.
Climate change waits for no one. Australia has debated the environmental and economic implications for several years, yet we have been relatively silent on the security implications.
Each additional year of inaction increases our insecurity and the cost of relief. It's time to make Australia and the region more secure, not more vulnerable.
Rob Sturrock is the lead author of The Longest Conflict: Australia's Climate Security Challenge, which was released on Monday.