THE CHANCES of humans making contact with intelligent life in our galaxy is close to 50 percent, claim scientists.
This alien discovery hope is alive and kicking in Hollywood sci-fi films like Arrival and our own collective imagination.
But in reality, astronomers have long been asking why ETs haven't yet got in touch with us.
The conundrum is best laid out by the Fermi Paradox: a theory that charts the gulf between our expectations of finding alien life and the fact that it remains undiscovered.
Or to use Enrico Fermi's own words: "Where is Everybody?"
But Fermi's words continue to haunt astronomers and budding sky-gazers everywhere.
His riddle also forms the crux of the new paper by a trio of Oxford Uni academics.
While their outlook isn't overly optimistic (the boffs claim there's a 53 percent chance we won't find aliens in our galaxy) it may yet provide fuel for UFO hunters.
Mainly because the new research shows that there's a 47 percent chance that we're not alone in the Milky Way – and a more hopeful 60 percent chance that we'll make contact with our intelligent neighbours in the visible universe.
The reason we haven't tracked down the little green men is because we have an inflated sense of how many alien empires are out there, claims the study.
In other words, we're effectively leaning too far on the glass half full scale of the Fermi Paradox.
In academic circles, the task of estimating the likelihood of alien life tends to rely on another theory known as the Drake Equation.
This simple formula, dreamed up by astronomer Frank Drake in 1961, multiplies how frequently alien biology could arise with the likelihood that it will become smart enough to develop science and technology.
One of the equation's key variables is the length of time such an alien race can broadcast detectable signals (like radio waves) across the galaxy for others to pick up.
A possible reason why we haven't achieved contact with an alien species is that this "length of time" may be extremely short, claim some scientists.
But the Oxford paper throws doubt on this entire formula by pointing out that we can't cook up percentages on alien discoveries with any degree of certainty.
A scientist could say that the chance micro-organisms will appear from a watery planet is ten percent (as highlighted by senior astronomer Seti Shostak), but the actual probability could be many magnitudes less, say the researchers.
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This uncertainty leaves the Drake Equation prone to the optimism or pessimism of whoever uses it.
But new evidence could change that and Nasa is inching ever closer to finding it.
Suddenly that 47 percent chance doesn't seem so hopeless after all.
Is the truth out there? Share your UFO sightings in the comments below.