The Census Bureau releases a detailed set of data on international trade based on figures compiled from documents collected by the U.S. Customs and Border Protection. The data are aggregated into approximately 140 export and 140 import end-use categories which are then used as the basis for computing the seasonal and trading-day adjusted data. These data are also used by the Bureau of Economic Analysis for use in the NIPAs and in the international transactions accounts (balance of payments accounts).
Imports indicate demand for foreign goods and services here in the U.S. Exports show the demand for U.S. goods in countries overseas. This report gives a breakdown of U.S. trade with major countries as well, so it can be instructive for investors who are interested in diversifying globally. For example, a trend of accelerating exports to a particular country might signal economic strength and investment opportunities in that country. It is important to examine trends for exports and imports separately because they can deviate significantly since the value of the dollar versus various foreign currencies does not always move in tandem.
In November, the Census Bureau reported exports of $194.9 billion and imports of $229.1 billion with a trade deficit of $34.3 billion, down from $39.3 billion in August. The goods deficit in November decreased by $4.9 billion to $53.9 billion, and the services surplus increased $0.2 billion to $19.7 billion. The balance of trade improved by about $5 billion in November and, based on a three-month moving average, the overall trade deficit has fallen dramatically from more than $50 billion at the beginning of 2012. Exports continue to rise, and imports have been relatively flat on a three-month moving average basis.
At a detail level, the United States has a negative trade balance in nearly every product category save for agricultural and food products, minerals, fabrics and scrap, while maintaining significant positive balances in service categories and tourism.
Taking a look at international trade in petroleum, the US is a major importer from Canada (839 million barrels so far this year), Saudi Arabia (434 million barrels), Mexico (277 million barrels), Venezuela (260 million barrels) and Columbia (129 million barrels). All told, the country imported nearly 2.6 million barrels of oil so far this year worth $251.4 billion dollars. This accounts for nearly 58 percent of the overall $435.1 trade deficit. While exports of petroleum products increased by nearly $10 billion over the past year, this pales in comparison with the nation’s imports of energy, and this dependency on foreign commodity imports is one reason why the nation’s policy of weakening the dollar is problematic to business. Rather than oil prices falling as more domestic production has been brought on line, they have instead risen or stayed relatively flat as the weakening dollar has harmed American purchasing power. Businesses of all types should continue to expect high energy costs in the future, particularly as Europe and the economies of the BRIC countries begin to strengthen.
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