I have heard forecasters say recently that we’re going to be in for a much-rougher winter this year.
Rougher than what, I wondered.
Mark Paquette, a forecaster at AccuWeather in State College, Pa., told me it will be rougher than the milquetoast winter we had last year, but it won’t be harsher than a normal Columbus winter, and it might even be a tad milder.
Paquette said the weather will be a series of cold and mild spells, sort of “a back and forth,” but temperatures will end up nearly normal.
He said, however, that the first two weeks of December will give us a false impression of what’s going to happen because temperatures are going to be about 6 degrees above normal, with some highs in the 50s and 60s.
Snowfall will be back and forth, too — stretches of snowy weather and times of dry weather. We will end up with about the normal amount, he predicted.
When forecasters talk about winter, they mean all of December, January and February. During that period last year, daily temperatures averaged 4.7 degrees above normal, and snowfall totaled just 12.2 inches. The normal seasonal snowfall in Columbus is 26.7 inches.
Paquette said this winter will probably seem harsh to a lot of people because we were spared last winter.
The winter solstice, the actual beginning of winter, will be at 6:12 a.m. on Dec. 21. The Old Farmer’s Almanac says that will be the earliest arrival of winter since 1896.
I think the best thing about the winter solstice is that the sun pauses briefly and then begins its journey back toward the Northern Hemisphere, meaning the length of daylight will be slightly increasing daily after that.
Even the ancient people of the world and what would become Ohio knew the significance of that. When the sun turns around, it begins its journey toward spring.
Temperatures don’t immediately begin to warm after the winter solstice because of something called “heat lag.” Warming won’t begin until the oceans and the terrain in the north begin to warm up; then, temperatures will follow suit. That begins to happen in February.
The December moon is called the cold moon, for obvious reasons. It will be full on the 28th.
For winter lovers who think they got cheated last year, perhaps this forecast will make them happier.
Retired weather columnist John Switzer writes a Sunday Metro column.