2variations may occur. Unfortunately, firefighters who do not know these thingshave a reduced situational awareness. Many burnover situations could have beenavoided had they known how dangerous the fire potential was, and had they toldothers how they knew. Reading accident reports from the 1949 Mann Gulchthrough the 2006 Esperanza fires reveals that had the simple knowledge of whenand where the variation was about to occur would have made a difference.
It isbetter to leave early, rather than to stay until the fire runs you out.
The Campbell Prediction System (CPS) is a practical way to use on-sceneobservations to determine fire behavior strategies and tactics. With the CampbellPrediction System, logic replaces intuition, allowing an explanation of how tacticsare developed. Scientific research combined with the knowledge of the successfulfirefighters' methods and practices are used to explain fire behavior. In thesesituations the observed fire behavior becomes the baseline, or signature, for firebehavior predictions.The Campbell Prediction System enables you to:
Identify and use the correct information to make fire behavior predictions
Explain how you arrived at your prediction of fire behavior change
Choose the tactic or strategy to utilize and explain how it was selected
Display and communicate the predicted fire behavior on a mapLogic allows an explanation of what the fire is telling you, and reasoned tacticsmaintain effectiveness and safety.
Wildfire suppression tactics are sometimes unsafe and can result in injuries and/orfatalities from burnovers. Prescribed burning projects sometimes escape controldue to poor planning or execution.
Tactics fail as a result of fire behaviorpredictions that are either not made or are inaccurate.
Why do these eventsoccur?Firefighters do not have a simple and reliable method to assess the fire andfireground situations. Firefighters are taught to think about suppressing the fireand not to think logically of how the fire could thwart their plan. The firefighter'semotional hook to
to often outweighs a logical approach and can lead toaccidents. Firefighters that cannot explain the factors that cause fires to transitionfrom controllable to beyond human control are more at risk.