|No.4 July 2007|
|Crop Prospects and Food Situation|
In North Africa, harvesting of the winter grains (mainly wheat and barley), which make up the bulk of the subregion's cereal crop, is underway. Latest forecasts point out to a sharp reduction in Morocco’s cereal output due to drought throughout most of the season. Output of the main crop, wheat, is forecast to drop by 76 percent, the lowest level of the past five years. In Algeria and Tunisia by contrast, increased and better distributed rains during spring improved crop prospects after a quite unfavourable start to the season, notably in the major producing areas, and this year’s cereal harvest is expected to be above the 2006 crop. In Egypt, the largest producer in the subregion, where most of the wheat is irrigated, production is forecast to be lower than last year’s bumper crop but above the average of the previous five years. Overall, FAO forecasts the subregion’s aggregate wheat output at 13.4 million tonnes, 28 percent down from the good crop of 2006 and below average. Production of barley is put at 2.7 million tonnes, a decrease of over 38 percent.
In Western Africa, the cropping season has been slow to start in the Sahel due to irregular rains across most countries. However, according to the African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development (ACMAD) and the Agrhymet Centre in their annual climate prediction exercise, precipitations are expected to improve in the coming months. For the Sahelian region which receives about 80 percent of its annual precipitation in the months July-September, there is an increased probability this year of normal to above-normal rainfall. Seed availability should also be adequate following the generally good harvests in 2006.
In the coastal countries along the Gulf of Guinea where the rainy season is now well established, the main season maize crop is developing satisfactorily in the south and the centre while the single-season millet and sorghum are emerging in the north. However, satellite imagery for late June-early July indicates significant rainfall deficits in northern Côte d’Ivoire and eastern Guinea that may have affected crops.
The food supply situation remains generally satisfactory in most parts of the subregion, reflecting the bumper 2006 cereal harvest. However, serious localized food insecurity is reported in few countries due mostly to lack of access. In Mauritania, which relies heavily on coarse grain (millet and sorghum) imports from neighbouring Senegal and Mali and wheat imports from the international market, coarse grain supplies remain tight, reflecting poor harvest in Senegal, seriously affecting poor rural households. In Senegal, high prices of millet and sorghum continue to be reported in several regions, limiting the food access of poor households.
In Central Africa, in Cameroon and the Central African Republic, where rains have been adequate since the beginning of the cropping season in April, harvesting of the first 2007 maize crop is about to start. In the latter country, however, agricultural recovery and food security continue to be hampered by persistent civil unrest and inadequate availability of agricultural inputs, notably in northern parts.
In Eastern Africa, harvesting of the 2007 main season cereal crops is about to start in southern parts, while in northern parts, crops are in the early stages of development or still being planted. The outlook is generally mixed with eastern Kenya, parts of southern Somalia and parts of Uganda experiencing varying degrees of crop stress due to poor and/or erratic seasonal (March to May) rainfall. Similarly, below-normal rainfall in the Afar region of Ethiopia and nearby areas of Tigray and Amhara together with parts of Djibouti and Eritrea have affected mainly pastoralists. By contrast, favourable rains have benefited crops, and the replenishment of water and pasture in areas stretching from western and north-western Kenya, through southern Sudan into western and south-central Ethiopia.
In Somalia, prospects for the 2007 main “gu” season cereal crops, for harvest from August, are poor. According to the Somalia’s Food Security Analysis Unit (FSAU), the performance of the current gu season rains (April to June), the most critical rains of the year, have been well below normal and erratically distributed for most of the country. Exceptions are the northwest and localized areas in the northeast, central region and Juba Valley. The gu season crop establishment conditions vary from region to region, but generally are well below normal in the main agricultural areas in the south, both for rainfed and irrigated cereal crops. Rangelands, however, are near normal in most regions due to last season’s above normal rains and a mild dry season. Several swarms of desert locust have formed in eastern Ethiopia and north-west Somalia in early June and by the end of the month, moved further east, damaging orchards in the Bosaso area. Although some adults are likely to remain in northern Somalia, most of the populations are expected to migrate to southwest Asia.
In Kenya, the outlook for the 2007 main season cereal crops is mixed. Normal to above normal cropping conditions have prevailed in the western portion of the country, including the breadbasket areas near Lake Victoria. However, in eastern portions of the country severe drought conditions due to the failure of the long rains (March to May) season have devastated crops and pastures throughout the region. Rains are not expected until the start of the next wet season in October.
In Eritrea, recent rains in the central highlands and parts of the western lowlands heralded the beginning of the main (kremti) season and have prompted extensive land cultivation. It is too early to determine the outlook of the current main season but the spring (short) rains from March to May that are necessary for early land preparation and regeneration of pasture were generally poor. Pastoral southern parts of the country, bordering Djibouti and the Afar region of Ethiopia, have been particularly affected. Rainfall is expected to return to the area in July.
In Ethiopia, prospects for the secondary “belg” season crop, being harvested, are generally favourable, particularly in western and central parts, following adequate rains. Early prospects for the 2007 main season "meher" crops are generally favourable in major producing areas but largely depend on weather conditions until harvest in November-December. By contrast, poor rainfall in the Afar region of Ethiopia, and nearby sections of Tigray and Amhara has negatively affected crops but mainly the replenishment of pasture and water. Rains in July will be critical for recovery. The rainfall forecast from the Ethiopian National Meteorological Agency (NMA) for the 2007 main season (June to September) indicates a normal onset and cessation over most parts of the country.
In Sudan, early prospects for the 2007 main season cereal crops now being planted are generally favourable due to the near-normal progress of seasonal rains so far. The rainfall season in southern Sudan improved considerably from mid to late April, following a slow start from March to early April, providing suitable conditions for crop planting and growth. Above average vegetation levels are being observed for the time of year over most parts of the country, except in Darfur where pre-season rains has been below normal.
In the United Republic of Tanzania, harvesting of the 2007 main season maize crop is well underway in the uni-modal regions. The outlook is generally favourable.
In Uganda, harvesting of the 2007 first season crops has begun in the southern bi-modal areas. Prospects are uncertain following a delayed start to the season. Some rains later in the season improved prospects but remained patchy in many locations. In the northern uni-modal area of Karamoja, the main season rains are expected to reach their peak in August. Generally normal to above normal rains are forecast which in turn are expected to improved prospects for crops. Recent reports indicate that cattle are slowly moving back closer to kraals following the onset of the rains in the area. However, many livestock still remain in dry season grazing areas in the wet agriculture belt to the west of the region, where pasture and water are still adequate.
Harvest of the 2007 main season cereal crops completed in April-June period indicates mixed results for the subregion as a whole. The 2007 total cereal production (including forecasts for small amounts of wheat output of the secondary season currently underway in a few countries) registered increases over the previous year in some countries, including Angola, Malawi, Madagascar and Mozambique while in Zimbabwe, Swaziland, Lesotho, Namibia and South Africa it decreased. In Zambia and Botswana cereal harvests were lower than last year’s good crops but remained at average to above average levels (see Table 5). The aggregate production of cereals in the subregion is forecast at 22.7 million tonnes marginally better than last year’s about-average level. Maize, the main staple crop in the subregion is estimated at 15 million tonnes, 3 percent higher than last year’s less than satisfactory outcome. Much of this poor performance, however, is due to another below-average crop in South Africa. Excluding South Africa, thanks largely to bumper crops in Malawi and Angola, the rest of the region has experienced a record harvest with more than a third increase in maize and a quarter increase in cereal production compared to the respective averages for the previous five years.
In South Africa, by far the largest producer of the subregion, the 2007 maize harvest shows some recovery over last year’s reduced crop but remains about 25 percent below the average level of 2002-06, caused primarily by drought in the main maize growing areas of the country in spite of very favourable maize prices.
Planting of the 2007 wheat crop in South Africa, which accounts for about 90 percent of the subregion's total production, and other secondary season crops has been carried out in May-June in southern and central growing areas. The revised wheat planting intentions indicate a decrease in the area of about 14 percent from the year before and 20 percent from the five-year average. Planting intentions are pessimistic, in spite of the current high domestic and international prices, due to producers’ concerns about weather conditions.
In spite of the record maize and total cereal harvests in the region (excluding South Africa) this year, due to the highly uneven domestic production performance across the region and some anticipated stock adjustments, total import requirements for 2007/08 marketing year are estimated to be slightly higher than the level of year before (see Table 6 and Figure 1). These are, however, expected to stay below average.
Reflecting another below average harvest and a tightening international market, maize prices in South Africa have remained consistently higher than last year’s season. The SAFEX nearby futures white maize price peaked at R 1 965/t (US$ 271/t) in March 2007 (see Figure 3). This price has come down since then with current price around R 1 770/t (US$ 252/t), but future’s prices show continuation of this positive trend till March 2008. A comparison of nearby white maize SAFEX prices with that of US yellow maize export prices in the last two years indicates a similar general trend. However, over the last few months South African prices have risen more rapidly than the US export prices. This is partly due to strengthening of the Rand against the US dollar since October 2006 and partly due to domestic production prospects and supply demand situation.
High prices in South Africa, the region’s main exporting country, have affected other dependent markets in the region, especially, Swaziland, and Lesotho. However, a bumper maize harvest in Malawi has resulted in post harvest prices being considerably lower than in the past. The government minimum support price is expected to halt the slump in most markets in that country. Maize prices in Zambia and Mozambique have remained close to last year’s levels due to generally stable supplies in the markets.
Harvesting of the 2007 main winter wheat and first rice crops is almost complete throughout the subregion, while land preparation and planting of the main rice and coarse grain crops have started with the generally timely arrival of monsoon rains. In countries around the equatorial belt, the main rice season is well advanced.
In China, harvesting of the 2007 winter wheat crop has virtually been completed under favourable conditions. The country’s aggregate output, which includes some 5.5 million tonnes of spring wheat, is now tentatively estimated at a record 107 million tonnes, 2.5 million tonnes above the previous high set last year. Weather conditions have also been favourable for the coarse grain (mainly maize) planting, which has been completed in the major producing regions. A bumper maize production is expected, at 149 million tonnes, 3.5 million tonnes above the high output last year, reflecting an increase in the area dedicated to the crop, which is expected to be relatively more profitable than soybeans, the normal alternative. Regarding rice, harvesting of the 2007 early crop is underway while planting of the intermediate crop has just been completed. Planting of the late rice has started as of late June. Based on official forecasts, the aggregate rice area is expected to increase by 1 percent in 2007 compared to the previous year, reflecting the higher paddy price (mainly due to government minimum procurement prices) and government direct subsidies to grain farmers. However, productivity may be affected by recent floods in major rice producing areas.
In India, as of late June, harvesting of the 2007 wheat crop is almost complete and output is tentatively estimated at a bumper 73.5 million tonnes, reflecting increased plantings and favourable weather during most of the growing season. As a result, the country’s wheat imports in 2007/08 are forecast to decline significantly, to about 3 million tonnes, from the exceptionally high 6.6 million tonnes in the previous market year. Sowing of the main Kharif coarse grains and rice crops, for harvest from September, has begun. The early outlook is satisfactory with the timely arrival of the southwest monsoon to the country’s southern coast and 7 percent above average rainfall in June. However, the outcome of Kharif season will still depend greatly on the performance of the southwest monsoon rains in July and August.
In Indonesia, prospects for the 2007 rice production may be slightly down from the previous year’s bumper level because of the late arrival of rains but, by contrast, a larger maize crop is expected. Output is forecast to rise to about 12.4 million tonnes reflecting an increased use of higher-yielding hybrid seeds.
The wheat harvest is also finished in the main wheat-growing provinces of Pakistan, and the country’s production in 2007 is now estimated at record 23 million tonnes. Output has been boosted by favourable weather but also increased use of fertilizers made possible by government subsidies for their purchases. Given the good crop, the country is expected to export some 1.5 million tonnes of wheat in 2007/08.
In the Philippines, paddy production in the first half of 2007 is officially estimated at a record 6.7 million tonnes, marginally above last year’s level, reflecting ample irrigation water and government subsidies for the purchase of inputs. Output of maize is also forecast to remain high in 2007, similar to the previous year’s record level at about 6.3 million tonnes. Output in the first three months of the year is estimated at 1.7 million tonnes, up 11.4 percent on the previous year, reflecting increased plantings due to the incentive of high prices. Maize output in the April-to-June period, however, is expected to drop somewhat to about 1 million tonnes following a probable decline in plantings due to lower rains in February and March in Mindanao, a major producing region. In Bangladesh, contrary to generally favourable conditions in most other parts of the region, the 2007 wheat crop was negatively affected by above-normal winter temperatures and output is estimated well below average. As a result, the country’s imports in 2007/08 are estimated to rise to almost 3 million tonnes, well above the average in the past five years.
In the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, the food supply outlook for the remainder of the 2006/07 marketing year (November/October) remains precarious. Although domestic cereal production in 2006 was relatively high, the deficit to meet expected utilization for the year was estimated at some 900 000 tonnes. Of this amount, 400 000 tonnes of rice food aid was pledged by the neighbouring Republic of Korea, with the first shipment of 3 000 tonnes sent in late June. Prospects for the main 2007 food crops of rice and maize, which have recently been planted in May-June, are generally reported to be favourable so far, their early development benefiting from above-average rainfall.
In Sri Lanka, the Maha paddy crop harvested earlier this year, which accounts for more than 60 percent of aggregate paddy output, was officially estimated at about 1.9 million tonnes, 8 percent below the record of last year, but some 4 percent above the average of the past five years. However, the food security situation in the northeast of the country is still significantly affected by the deterioration of the political and security situation. Aggravating the situation in south-western areas, an estimated 50 000 people were made homeless by the flooding in the early May.
In Timor-Leste, a tight food supply situation and a need for international food aid is forecast to continue in the next several months, following a sharp drop in the main season crop production and also the after effects of conflict last year, which include 100 000 people still displaced from their homes. Based on an FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission earlier this year, the cereal deficit in 2007/08 (April/March) is estimated at 86 364 tonnes. With commercial imports anticipated at 71 000 tonnes, including expected government purchase of 16 000 tonnes for strategy reserve, there remains an uncovered import requirement of 15 000 tonnes. The IDPs and over 200 000 rural people are estimated to be the most vulnerable and in need of food assistance until March 2008. Serious short-term food shortages and chronic food insecurity persists in Nepal. (see box for details).
A number of countries in this subregion have been affected by tropical storms, typhoons, and floods, in particular Pakistan, India and China. The official death toll from floods in Pakistan rose to 240 and the number of IDPs reached 250 000 up to 3 July. In India, some 270 people have reportedly been killed and millions of people are affected by the recent heavy monsoon rains. Emergency aid, including food, is needed in the affected areas.
In Afghanistan recent flash floods from torrential rains and fast snow-melt, following a sudden rise in temperatures, have caused significant damages to lives and livelihoods in most regions of the country. However, despite localized damages from floods, prospects are favourable for this year’s crop. Aggregate cereal output is now forecast at about 4.5 million tonnes, which is above average. The outlook for winter cereal crops, being harvested, is generally favourable in the subregion with average to slightly above average yields forecast for most countries. In Iraq, weather conditions during the growing season were generally favourable for winter crops. In Yemen, the Desert Locust situation is serious in the interior where substantial breeding was reported following unusually heavy rains. Hopper bands have formed over a large and remote area on the southern edge of the Empty Quarter. FAO, in collaboration with WFP, is mounting aerial operations that will commence in mid-July. Planting of the main season crops, which normally start in June, may be affected in parts.
In southern parts of the subregion, cereal harvesting is underway. Reduced precipitation, relatively hot temperatures and late spring cereal planting in northern Kazakhstan (New Lands), have dashed hopes for a record crop. Aggregate cereal output in the subregion is now estimated at about 28.6 million tonnes, 1 million tonnes down from last year’s harvest. Wheat output in Kazakhstan is now estimated at about 12.5 million tonnes compared with 13.7 million tonnes in 2006. Aggregate coarse grains output in the subregion is now estimated at about 4.4 million tonnes, slightly down from last year’s harvest.
Harvesting of the 2007 main irrigated winter wheat crop is well advanced in Mexico, under favourable dry weather conditions, and the output is expected at an average 3 million tonnes. Planting of the 2007 first season coarse grain and bean crops is underway in all Central American countries. In the Caribbean, planting is still underway in Cuba, but harvesting has already stared in Haiti and the Dominican Republic where production prospects are favourable following timely and abundant precipitation. The 2007 aggregate coarse grain area is expected to reach 12.2 million hectares, about 5 percent above the previous year’s level, mostly reflecting higher planting intentions for the first season maize crop in Mexico, in response to high international prices. In Mexico, however, despite the forecast increase in production, maize imports in 2007/08 (July/June) are expected to reach a record level of between 7 000 and 7 500 tonnes, after a high level also in the previous year, with the aim to increase national supply and control prices in local markets. Regarding rice, planting of the 2007 main summer season crop is underway throughout the subregion and planting intentions point to an area of about 720 000 hectares, slightly above the planting program of same season in 2006. Based on the results of harvests already underway and assuming normal conditions and average yields for the crops just being sown, the subregion’s aggregate cereal production is tentatively forecast at a record 40 million tonnes, 2.2 million tonnes more than last year’s output and about 6 percent above the average of the past five years.
Harvesting of the 2007 main season coarse grain and rice crops is virtually completed and record or above-average production is expected in most countries. At aggregate level, preliminary estimates put the subregion’s coarse grain output at a record 93 million tonnes, about 18.6 million tonnes above the previous year’s average level. This result is due to a combination of a 7.6 percent increase in maize plantings in response to strong demand for ethanol production, and to a 16 percent increase in average yields following favourable weather conditions throughout the growing season. In Brazil, output of first season maize crop is officially forecast at a record 36.4 million tonnes, about 15 percent above last year’s drought-affected first season crop. In particular, maize crop productivity increased sharply in key producing southern states of Parana, Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina, where average yields have been estimated at an exceptionally high 5.25 tonnes per hectare, about 30 percent above the average of the past five years. Current dry weather conditions are favouring maturation and harvesting of 2007 second season ( safrinha) winter maize crop in Centre-West states. Output from the second season is tentatively forecast at a record level also, of 16 million tonnes; mainly reflecting high international prices at planting time, which led farmers to increase the area sown to 4.5 million hectares, from 3.3 million hectares in 2006. In addition, yield prospects for the safrinha crops are good due to early planting in key producing areas, which was made possible by an early completion of the soybean harvest under favourable weather conditions.
In Argentina, harvesting of the maize crop is practically complete and preliminary official estimates point to a record production of 22 million tonnes, with average yields that may even pass the record level of 8 tonnes per hectare. A record 2007 maize crop is also being gathered in Chile and Uruguay.
The subregion’s aggregate output of paddy is tentatively estimated at average level of 21.7 million tonnes, more than 10 percent below the record output obtained in 2005 as a consequence of the reduced area following unattractive prices.
Planting of the 2007 winter wheat crop, to be harvested by the end of the year, has been recently completed in central and southern states of Brazil, while it is still underway in Argentina, Chile and Uruguay. The subregion’s aggregate planted area is tentatively forecast at nearly 8 million hectares, very similar to the previous year’s level, but still below the five-year average of 9 million hectares. However, with insufficient precipitation reported in some main growing areas of Argentina, which may prevent farmers from realizing their planting intentions, especially for long-term varieties, the final outcome is still somewhat uncertain.
On June 15, the Peruvian Government declared a state of emergency due to frosts and low temperatures that affected 13 departments. Although an official assessment is not yet available, some localized losses of livestock and basic staple crops are expected especially in the southern highlands.
Prospects for 2007 cereal production in the United States are favourable. In late June, winter wheat harvesting was well underway in the southern states, although progressing a little behind the average pace because of some heavy rainfalls. After some earlier uncertainty about the extent of damage caused by an April freeze, latest indications show the adverse impact to have been minimal and the latest official forecast puts the winter wheat output at almost 44 million tonnes, some 24 percent up from the previous year. Latest indications also continue to point to a larger spring wheat harvest, with the bulk of the crop reported to be in good to excellent condition in late June, and the area not changed much from the previous year. Thus, aggregate wheat output is forecast to reach a bumper 59 million tonnes, compared to 49 million tonnes in 2006. This would be the largest harvest since the record in 2003. Regarding coarse grains, the country is on track to produce its biggest ever maize crop in 2007. Maize planting was mostly finished by the end of May under mostly favourable conditions, and early estimates point to the largest area since 1944. The sharp expansion is mostly in response to exceptionally strong domestic demand for maize-based ethanol production. As of late June, the bulk of the crop was reported to be in good to excellent condition, and on current indications, the output could reach some 320 million tonnes, although much will depend on the weather during the remainder of the season.
In Canada, planting of the main 2007 grain crops has mostly been completed. The area planted to wheat this spring is officially estimated to have dropped by nearly 20 percent, to just about 6.2 million hectares, the smallest area since 1970. The main reasons resulting in this decrease were better prices for competing crops combined with high costs of fertilizer and planting delays, which meant farmers planted more shorter-season crops like barley and oats. The crops are generally reported to be in good condition so far, and sub-soil moisture levels throughout much of the Prairies are reported to be satisfactory to ensure good growth through the season. However, some areas are giving rise for concern: parts of southern Manitoba and Saskatchewan are too wet because of heavy spring rains, which could favour damp-related diseases, while the durum wheat-growing region of south-western Saskatchewan is reported to be too dry and needs rain through the rest of the growing season to achieve good yields.
In the European Union, latest forecasts still point to a likely increase in cereal production in 2007 compared to the aggregate crop of the 27 countries in 2006, and almost 6 percent above their average for the past 5 years. However, prospects in some countries have deteriorated over the past few weeks due to unfavourably dry conditions/drought. The worst affected countries are in the east of the region. In Romania, the total cereal output may remain close to last year’s reduced level, but the wheat crop may be the lowest since the severe drought year of 2003. In Bulgaria, the harvest prospects are very uncertain after unusual and rapidly changing weather throughout the season. However, on balance, it seems that some major producing areas have suffered from predominantly dry conditions and a below-average cereal crop is expected.
Elsewhere, although not as severe as in the east, several other countries have also reported some yield reduction, compared to earlier prospects, due to dry conditions. In France, predominantly dry conditions in central and northern parts throughout the spring are expected to have had a significant impact on yields. In Germany and Hungary, rain in May improved conditions for developing crops after a very dry April but it probably arrived too late to avoid some loss of the yield potential. In Italy, where the Government declared a drought emergency in early May, good rains later in the month have reduced fears for severe crop losses but yields may not be as good as was earlier expected.
In other parts of the EU prospects remain close to earlier expectations. Good rains in the late spring in the United Kingdom and Poland reduced the likelihood of irreversible damage to crops in these two countries also. Spain continued to have favourable weather conditions this season with regular rain and mild temperatures and a sharp increase in cereal production is forecast this year following the last two years drought-reduced crops.
In the European CIS (The Russian Federation, The Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova), earlier hopes of a bumper cereal harvest in the subregion have faded to be replaced by the prospect of a much reduced crop, forecast at 111 million tonnes, some 7.8 million tonnes down from last year’s already relatively poor level. Heavy rains in spring hindered spring cereal planting in Ukraine and the Russian Federation then, subsequently, reduced precipitation and unusually hot weather conditions during the growing period compromised all cereal crops and induced early maturity with loss of yield in parts of the Russian Federation, southern Ukraine and Moldova. Worst affected has been Ukraine, where the aggregate 2007 cereal output is now forecast to be down by more than 6.3 million tonnes, or 19 percent, compared to 2006. In the Russian Federation, the crop is forecast down by about 2.2 million tonnes, or 3 percent, compared with 2006, while in Moldova the 2007 cereal output could be up by about 13 percent. In addition to this year’s losses in terms of quantity, the quality of the crops, wheat in particular, has also been affected and the proportion of food quality cereals is likely to be significantly lower than normal.
The outlook for the 2007 winter cereal crops in Australia is mixed across the country but the aggregate production is set to recover strongly from last year’s very poor drought-reduced level. In its June Crop Report, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE) reported that widespread autumn rainfall across the majority of New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia provided an ideal start to the season. However, continued dry conditions in Queensland and parts of Western Australia mean that winter crop prospects in those states are below average. The total area planted to wheat is forecast to rise by 11 percent to 12.5 million hectares, and assuming a return to average yields, total wheat production in 2007 is forecast to be around 22.8 million tonnes, more than double the 2006 output. The area planted to barley, the other main winter cereal, is also forecast to increase, by around 10 percent, and production to increase to over 9 million tonnes.
|GIEWS||global information and early warning system on food and agriculture|