WEATHER WISHES VERSUS WEATHER REALITY
METEOROLOGIST JEFF HABY
When forecasting it is important to not bias the data being interpreted toward verifying weather wishes. Look
for the ingredients both that will cause a weather event to occur and the ingredients that will prevent a weather
event from occurring. The two weather events meteorologists anticipate with enthusiasm most are winter weather
events and severe thunderstorm events.
WINTER WEATHER ADVICE- Make sure there is enough cold air to support the event. Often the precipitation
will occur and end before enough cold air moves in to support winter precipitation. Make sure the
substantial enough to warrant mention of the possibility of
winter precipitation. Determine how much
evaporation will decrease precipitation or prevent precipitation from reaching the ground. Also determine
the duration of lifting. If lifting duration is short, often no significant precipitation will occur.
Be wary of mentioning significant winter precipitation in the extended forecast. The models often waffle
greatly in the extended.
SEVERE WEATHER ADVICE- Make sure the
convective inhibition is not too strong. A strong
severe weather from occurring over part or the entire forecast region.
Low dewpoints in the
PBL (less than 55 F) decrease the severe weather threat significantly. Also make sure
wind shear are adequate to support severe storms. Clear skies versus cloudy skies will
make a substantial difference in the instability value. Make sure lifting is adequate to overcome
convective inhibition and strong enough to realize the maximum potential of instability release.