Immigration driving rapid population growth
Just before 10 pm tonight, Australia's population will officially hit 23 million people. The milestone is based on government figures that have Australia's population growing by a million people every two and half years. Australia's rapid population growth has long caught the attention of politicians and policy makers. But in the past 12 months, there's been an unprecedented number of babies born - and a significant increase in the number of people moving to Australia.
Source: AM | Duration: 3min 23sec
TONY EASTLEY: Just before 10 o'clock tonight, Australia's population will officially hit 23 million.
The milestone is based on government figures that have Australia's population growing by one million people every two and half years.
Australia's rapid population growth, the highest in the developed world, has long caught the attention of politicians and policy makers.
In the past 12 months there's been an unprecedented number of babies born as Australians opt for larger families, and as more people migrate to Australia.
Demographer Mark McCrindle is speaking here to Miriam Hall. He says it's inevitable Australia's population will reach 40 million within 40 years.
MARK MCCRINDLE: There has been an increase in births. We've hit a whole new record there. It's exceeding 300,000 births in a single year for the first time. The net migration is also the strongest that it's been for a couple of years. Actually it's the highest population growth rate since 2008.
MIRIAM HALL: Let's talk first of all about the increase in the numbers of babies born. Is it that more people are deciding to have children?
MARK MCCRINDLE: Well no, in fact the number of women remaining childless continues to be the same, about one in four. That increase in the birth numbers really is those that have one, going for a second, those that have two are going for a third - so it's actually an increase in the family size rather than an increase in the number of women who weren't having children who now are.
MIRIAM HALL: So that suggestion from Peter Costello all those years ago to have one for the mother, one for the father and one for the country is actually filtering through?
MARK MCCRINDLE: It has had some big impact.
MIRIAM HALL: How much is this population increase had to do with migration, as opposed to the number of births in the past 12 months?
MARK MCCRINDLE: Well, despite the strength in births, that's taken a little bit of a back seat, and the increase at the moment is all about net migration. Net migration that... the proportion of the net migration to our population growth has increased from 54 per cent a year ago to now 60 per cent of our growth - just 40 per cent through the natural increase.
MIRIAM HALL: We've know for quite some time that the population of Australia is growing but how do we stack up in terms of other nations around the world?
MARK MCCRINDLE: Well, we can say that Australia has world-beating population growth right now. The world is growing 1.1 per cent per annum and Australia 1.7 per cent is really out in front. And when you compare us to comparable developed nations, we really are ahead of the comparisons.
MIRIAM HALL: What does the current rate of population growth show in terms of where we'll be in say the middle of the century?
MARK MCCRINDLE: Even if we stay at the current level, it means that we will be hitting that figure of 40 million people in the 2050s. Now, if the growth slows down a little bit - that might be in the 2050s - if it remains at current trend it will probably be in the early 2050s, but certainly that figure of 40 million is what we're headed towards. It's inevitable that we will hit that number.
MIRIAM HALL: The growing population is an issue for both sides of politics. As a demographer, what do you want to see from government when we talk about an increase in population?
MARK MCCRINDLE: Well, I think it's about observing the realities and responding to these trend lines. Most Australians are relaxed about the numbers and the growth. What they're not as relaxed about is noticing that the commute to work takes a fair bit longer than it used to, or the wait times to get into the hospital are growing. It's when it hits them at a personal level that they start to think, you know what, maybe there's not the infrastructure that's planned for this growth.
TONY EASTLEY: Demographer Mark McCrindle speaking to Miriam Hall.