Editorial: “We can cut emissions without a global deal“
2012 may go down in history as a remarkable year. For the first time, the maddening pace of humanity’s greenhouse gas emissions showed signs of a global slowdown.
Importantly – and unlike the drop in emissions triggered by the 2008 recession – the let-off is happening at the same time as global wealth continues to swell.
“The small increase in emissions [of 2012]… may be the first sign of a more permanent slowdown in the increase of global CO2 emissions, and ultimately of declining global emissions,” declares the Trends in Global CO2 Emissions: 2013 Report, published by the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency and the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC) last week. It analyses the latest emissions data, right up to 2012.
This may be the first sign of a more permanent slowdown in the increase of global CO2 emissions
The news should provide fresh momentum for UN negotiations on a new climate treaty, which resume in Poland on Monday.
To avoid more than 2 °C of climate change – the target agreed in the 2009 talks – global emissions need to drop fast. We are nowhere near this goal, but the 2012 figures offer a first sign that action taken by the world’s biggest emitters is having a measurable effect. “This signals a shift towards less fossil-fuel intensive activities, more use of renewable energy and increased energy saving,” says Jos Olivier of the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency.
The data show that global carbon dioxide emissions rose by 1.4 per cent in 2012. Allowing for it being a leap year, the underlying increase was just 1.1 per cent, says the report, compared with an average of 2.9 per cent since 2000.
Importantly, the emissions rise is considerably less than the increase in global GDP of 3.5 per cent. “We see a decoupling of CO2 emissions from global economic growth,” says Greet Janssens-Maenhout of the JRC in Ispra, Italy, a co-author on the report.
The three biggest emitters – China, the US and the European Union – which account for more than half of global emissions, all show this decoupling effect. The most dramatic drop was in the US, which cut CO2 emissions by 4 per cent last year, despite its economy growing by 2.8 per cent. US emissions are now 12 per cent below their 2007 peak, and back to levels of two decades ago, the US Energy Information Administration confirms. It says a big switch from coal to shale gas in 2012 was accompanied by a 5 per cent reduction in the energy needed to create each dollar of wealth.
The EU continues its decade-long fall in emissions. Its GDP might have dropped by 0.3 per cent in 2012, but emissions fell even further – by 1.6 per cent. The most significant change may be in China. After rising by about 10 per cent a year for a decade, its emissions are now almost twice those of the US. But in 2012, they grew by only 3 per cent, while its economy grew by almost 8 per cent. China still gets two-thirds of its electricity from coal, but it is shifting to natural gas, hydroelectricity, and nuclear (see “China: the big turnaround“).
“These are very positive signs,” says Niklas Höhne of energy analysts Ecofys in Utrecht, the Netherlands. “Decoupling is definitely happening. We are seeing it in a lot of the world.”
What is behind the slowdown? In most countries, the biggest factors are measures to boost energy efficiency, according to the International Energy Agency. This includes everything from fuel savings in factories to more fuel-efficient trucks and the adoption of low-energy light bulbs (see diagram).
A shift in the types of fuel we burn is also driving emissions down, says Janssens-Maenhout. Solar, wind and biofuels doubled their contribution to the global energy mix between 2006 and 2012. If hydroelectricity is included, half of the electricity generating capacity added in 2012 was from renewable sources.
And cutting coal out of the mix is vital, adds Janssens-Maenhout. Burning natural gas instead results in half the CO2 emissions. So, while many environmentalists fear a dash for gas will delay the rise of renewable energy, its growth in the US and China is curbing emissions.
What about emissions from deforestation – historically a huge source? The JRC study did not include these, but Höhne says there is good news on that front too. Brazil has cut deforestation in the Amazon by 70 per cent in the past decade. “Two-thirds of the world’s emissions are now under some kind of national climate law or strategy to limit them,” says Höhne. “Major emitters like Brazil, South Korea, Mexico and China have all made pledges.” He says China is on target to reduce emissions per dollar of economic output by between 40 and 45 per cent between 2005 and 2020. Many of these initiatives follow national commitments made at climate negotiations in Cancún in 2010.
Höhne is guardedly optimistic. “The EU has shown for 10 years that economic growth is possible with declining emissions, through energy efficiency and renewable energy,” he says. China’s progress also looks promising, he adds, although it is less clear whether the US change is part of a long-term trend. Other industrialised nations, however, met their Kyoto Protocol target to cut their overall emissions by 4.2 per cent between 1990 and 2012.
The EU has shown for 10 years that economic growth is possible with declining emissions
There is still a long way to go. Some big emitters, like India and Japan, don’t fit in with the trend for decoupling of GDP and emissions. In 1992, governments at the Earth Summit promised to prevent “dangerous” climate change – now taken to mean anything over 2 °C of global warming. According to the latest assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, to achieve this target we must keep cumulative emissions since the industrial revolution below 1 trillion tonnes of carbon.
That means emissions must be cut by 2.5 per cent each year, starting now, says Myles Allen at the University of Oxford’s Environmental Change Institute.
Breaking the link between emissions and GDP is a start, says Bill McKibben, head of environment group 350.org. “But it’s not party-time yet.”
China: The big turnaround
Could it be true? Is the world’s polluting juggernaut on the turn?
First, let’s be clear: China isn’t a shining example by most measures. It produces 29 per cent of global carbon dioxide emissions, far outweighing the 15 per cent of global GDP it contributes. On average, each citizen accounts for roughly the same emissions as a European citizen, despite lower living standards.
But change is afoot. This year, China began working with the US on measures to fight climate change. And it has targets to cut carbon intensity – a measure of how much CO2 is emitted for each dollar of GDP. In 2012, this fell by 4.3 per cent, well ahead of its 3.5 per cent target for that year, says Ajay Gambhir of the Grantham Institute for Climate Change at Imperial College London.
“The Chinese are becoming more energy efficient and developing renewables,” says Niklas Höhne of energy analysis group Ecofys in Utrecht, the Netherlands. “One reason is to combat smogs from burning coal.”
China has been vilified for building two new coal-fired power stations every week. That’s now down to one, says Gambhir. With old plants being retired, the government plans to stop further increases in coal capacity as part of its targets to control energy consumption.
In place of coal come gas, hydro- and nuclear power. Almost half of the 67 nuclear power plants under construction are in China, and the country is also building hydroelectric facilities at a vast pace. Half of the 39 per cent global growth in hydroelectric capacity in the past decade comes from the country.
This article appeared in print under the headline “A new course for global emissions?”
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