On Feb 19, 2:52 pm, Robert Clark <rgregorycl...@yahoo.com> wrote:
> > > Here's the article by the Yale astronomer: > > A meteor and asteroid: 1 in 100 million odds. > By Meg Urry, Special to CNN > updated 8:16 PM EST, Mon February 18, 2013http://www.cnn.com/2013/02/16/opinion/urry-meteor-asteroid/index.html > > She states the two have very different orbits so they should be > unrelated, but acknowledges that the very low probability of their > both occurring so close to each other in time is puzzling. > In view of the very real dangers that would arise IF it is the case > they are related I think we should investigate some possible ways this > could occur. What I mean by this is cases where we assume asteroids > that make close approaches but do not impact, and therefore offer no > threat, still could have associated fragments that do impact. > ...
Smaller fireballs were also seen over Florida and San Francisco:
The Air Force has infrasound detectors that can measure atmospheric explosions. The size of these fireballs needs to be determined to find out how rare they are. In those articles they say both that they occur everyday and also they occur at the rate of 5 to 10 a year. If their size is such they occur even ten times a year, then the probability of one of these meteors of this size occurring on one day is 1 in 36. Now the probability of all three events happening on the same day jumps to 1 in several billion.
The 2029 close approach of the near Earth asteroid Apophis means this is a question that needs to be determined definitively. It also like 2012 DA14 is expected to come so close as to get inside the ring of geosynchronous satellites, but not impact. Apophis is so large though that, unlike 2012 DA14 , on closest approach it will even be visible to the naked eye. If it is the case that it can be accompanied by fragments that do impact then that is potentially very serious because its larger size means it would likely be accompanied by larger fragments.
To answer this question a statistical study needs to be made both of the Air Force infrasound detectors and the space radar detections to find whether on the 2012 DA14 close approach or on other previous close approaches whether there was an increase in meteor hits.