May 19, 2011
Humanity Can and Must Do More with Less: UNEP Report
By 2050, humanity could consume an estimated 140 billion tons of minerals, ores, fossil fuels and biomass per year – three times its current appetite – unless the economic growth rate is "decoupled" from the rate of natural resource consumption, warns a new report from the United Nations Environment Programme.
(174 page report) Decoupling Natural Resource Use and Environmental Impacts from Economic Growth
Powerpoint presentation on Decoupling Natural Resource Use and Environmental Impacts from Economic Growth (32 pages)
There is new skyscraper and high rise construction technology in China that uses less cement and can enable a 666 story building to be assembled in 4 months. This factory produced construction system would be 6-20 times more efficient with construction material than residential houses in the United States.
China will have 21% of a 100 trillion global construction market for 2011-2020.
It is possible to seriously scale up nuclear power in a safe way over the next 24-35 years to displace a lot fossil fuel usage
There will be over 1300 GWe of nuclear power by 2030 from existing and new conventional reactors
China will be at 48 GWe in 2015 (up from 10 GWe now) and 110 GWe in 2020.
I think China will be at 350 GWe in 2030 based on new reactor construction.
India will be at 70 GWe in 2030.
Russia will be at 80 GWe in 2030.
South Korea will be at 50 GWe in 2030.
China will start exporting cheap reactors starting in 2013 and middle eastern and asian countries will buy them.
Factory mass produced small reactors will see some units prior to 2020.
* China's 200 MW pebble bed reactor should be done by 2015 with more units following
* Hyperion Power Generations 25 MWe unit should be developed by 2013-2018.
* Russia SVBR100 should be produced by 2020.
The smaller factory mass produced units should add 100-300 GWe by 2030.
There should be about ten breeder reactors by 2020 and 50 large breeders by 2030. This does not include the smaller factory mass produced version of breeder reactors.
South Korea will have new 20% nuclear power uprates from annular fuel deployed by 2020 and annular fuel uprates will be adopted by other reactors by 2030. More advanced annular fuel uprates can increase power by 30-50%.
Uprateing existing reactors can add another 40% more power from the same plants. 10% from conventional uprates and 30% from annular fuel.
1800-2200 GWe of nuclear power by 2030 from conventional reactors, new modular reactors and from uprating of reactors.
4 wedges from nuclear power and maybe 1 wedge from hydro by 2030. What would need to be 700 GW for a wedge in 2050 need only be 400-500 GW in 2030- longer time to avoid carbon.
Wind power could have 1 wedge by 2030.
Solar power could have 1 wedge by 2030.
Efficiency in buildings, industry and transportation could have 2 wedges.
9 out of 18-25 wedges for stabilization of carbon emissions.
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