Pandemics appear to have occurred throughout history, the first being recognized in 1580. Reviewing previous pandemics can give an indication of what might be expected, however nothing is certain - it is impossible to predict the next pandemic virus or its impact, as demonstrated by the 2009 A(H1N1) pandemic.
By guest bloggers Jonathan Van-Tam and Chloe Sellwood
The 2009 flu pandemic was officially declared on 11 June 2009. The first cases of A(H1N1)pdm09 occurred in Mexico between January and March 2009, followed shortly by early first waves in north America, the UK and across the southern hemisphere countries in spring 2009. Many of the first cases of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 in Europe were reported in travellers returning from Mexico or the USA within a few days of the outbreak being announced, and cases rapidly emerged in countries as far away as New Zealand. A second, more widespread northern hemisphere wave followed in autumn/winter of the same year. After the pandemic was declared over on 10 August 2010 there were effective ‘third waves’ of A(H1N1)pdm09 disease in both southern then northern hemispheres in the following winter seasons.