Dropping water levels could lead to economic blues
Changes could cost Great Lakes region $9.6 billion by 2030, new study says
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As summer kicks into gear this weekend, cottagers and boaters on the Great Lakes will see higher than usual water levels — a welcome change from recent years.
That will make it easier to get through shallow channels to boat-in cottages and to dock watercraft, but scientists believe this may be merely a blip.
This year’s slight rebound is attributed to the cold, harsh winter, which saw 92.2 per cent of the Great Lakes frozen over, a rarity. By contrast, in the winter of 2011-12, ice coverage was only 12.9 per cent.
For years now, the Great Lakes have had below-average water levels, so consistently low that there are concerns over the long-term economic impacts for the region. An estimated 105 million people depend on the lakes for drinking water and hydroelectric power as well as agriculture, shipping, recreation and tourism.
“It’s a large of body of water, and it looks like we have lots of it,” said Mark Fisher, CEO of the Council of the Great Lakes Region. “But it is a finite resource.”
Less than 1 per cent of the waters of the Great Lakes are renewed each year, he said. Add to that the growing impact of climate change, with extreme weather events, and with warmer lake temperatures leading to more evaporation, and Fisher warns the situation is only going to get worse.
According to a new Mowat Centre report, Low Water Blues, commissioned by the council and released Thursday, the estimated direct economic impact of low water levels is sobering: a whopping $9.61 billion for the period from now until 2030, and $18.82 billion for the period from now until 2050.
The sectors most affected would be recreational boating and fishing, commercial shipping and harbours, and hydroelectric generation.
Commercial shippers, for instance, say low water levels may force shippers to carry lighter loads, reduce speeds or require more stops, raising costs.
For example, if grain is shipped from Thunder Bay to Quebec City, the ship would have to pass through the narrow passage at Sault Ste. Marie.
If water levels are extremely low, shippers will sometimes break up a longer-haul trip and make a series of shorter trips with less cargo, so that the vessel sits higher in the water. They will stockpile the goods, then reload the ship to its maximum capacity once it has cleared that challenging spot.
“As water levels go down, we’ll start to see that trend again,” said Robert Lewis-Manning, president of the Canadian Shipowners Association, which represents ships that move through Great Lakes and the St. Lawrence River. “We’d prefer not to — it’s not good for customers. It raises freight rates. It decreases profit. And it takes longer.”
But that’s what they saw in 2012, when spring conditions, which usually have the highest water levels, were typical of autumn. “The downward trend of water levels is evident,” he said. “It isn’t something we can ignore.”
The impact can be eventually passed on to consumers through the cost of goods, whether it’s construction materials or grain.
The report also warns that residential waterfront property values could fall as much as $976 million through 2050.
While Great Lake water levels have traditionally varied over time, see-sawing up and down, the latest research suggests a downward trend.
David Sweetnam, executive director of Georgian Bay Forever, noted that water levels on Georgian Bay hit a record low in January 2013.
“There is a statistical possibility that water levels can go high, but it is a low probability,” he said. He argues that since the water changes take place so slowly, decision makers aren’t under pressure to take immediate action, especially since the impact of policies wouldn’t be noticeable during a politician’s term.
But he believes a mechanism needs to be put in place to control water levels on Lakes Huron, Michigan and Erie, to mitigate against climate change impact, whether there’s too much or too little water, with consideration to the St. Lawrence River.
“It’s an integrated system that you have to be thinking of,” he said. “We have to be able to connect the dots between climate change and economic output.
“And if it’s adverse, you want to be able to do something to help Mother Nature out.”
Fisher warned that the situation is now unpredictable.
“We’re into a fog,” he said. “When you look at the future, all bets are off. It is so uncertain and so unpredictable. It is difficult to judge from one year to next five years to next 10 years, what things are going to look like.”
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