Posted by Alan Kafka on April 6, 2009
Many people are asking if the recent magnitude 6.3 quake in Italy was predicted –
Row Over Italian Quake ‘Forecast’ –
Well, that depends on what you mean by “predicted.” The quake occurred in an area that is well-known to have a significant LONG-TERM hazard –
And, in that sense, this quake was certainly “predicted” as something that would inevitably happen at some point in time.
But in terms of SHORT-TERM quake prediction: Some seismologists (and some non-seismologists) claim that they can predict quakes, but I (and nearly all other seismologists) are very skeptical about such claims.
For more of my thoughts on earthquake prediction, see –