Project Managers constantly seek ways to eliminate or control risk, variance, and uncertainty. This is a hopeless pursuit.Managing in the presence of risk, variance and uncertainty is the key to success. Some projects have few uncertainties – only the complexity of tasks and relationships is important – but most projects are characterized by several types of uncertainty.
Although each uncertainty type is distinct, a single project may encounter some combination of four types:
- Variation – comes from many small influences and yields a range of values on a particular activity. Attempting to control these variances outside their natural boundaries is a waste (Muda).
- Foreseen Uncertainty – are uncertainties identifiable and understood influences that the team cannot be sure will occur. There needs to be a mitigation plan for these foreseen uncertainties.
- Unforeseen Uncertainty – is uncertainty that can’t be identified during project planning. When these occur, a new plan is needed.
- Chaos – appears in the presence of “unknown unknowns.”
“Managing Project Uncertainty: From Variation to Chaos,” Arnoud De Meyer, Christoph H. Loch and Michael T. Pich, MIT Sloan Management Review, Winter 2000.