While China’s rise in Asia be peaceful? The question, no matter how naïve, has been the centre of discussion for various foreign policy experts. A discussion, which many experts agreed on a “no”. If China continues to maintain its growth, on economic as well as military fronts, it is quite likely for United States to engage with China thoroughly.
To understand China’s rise in power, one must review its history, particularly with its hostility and “mixed” diplomacy on the international arena.
However, today, Trump administration is thoroughly pursuing “silent and motivation” towards Chinese, but when it comes to China’s growing military power fuelled by an ambition for dominance in Asia, Trump administration is cautious. Surrounded by India, Japan, Singapore, South Korea, with Russia on the West, and Vietnam, the US will come to aid especially when it would see its strategic interests threatened.
In order to anticipate Chinese actions along with “unpredictable” White House, one must refer to the theory of “expansionist nations” within international politics which would be helpful in giving a wide look on the rise of power nations followed by the reaction, apprehension and questions of state security other nations have towards former’s rise in power. To understand China’s rise in power, one must review its history, particularly with its hostility and “mixed” diplomacy on the international arena.
The theory of international relations explicitly talks about western hegemony, particularly the incidents occurred during the Cold War, and ensured that, no greater power dominates a region while practicing statecraft and diplomacy at the same time, in an effort to prevent rival power nation from dominating a region. It was not just limited to American foreign policy, it was rather a framework which helped foreign policy experts to anticipate Chinese policy with respect to its trade and regional dominance. This theory later redefined US foreign policy towards China.
China wants to be dominant Asia on the same way US does in North America. In order to achieve it, it will try to distance itself from Russia and Japan.
The “expansionist” theory
When does a state expand? It expands after fulfilling the basic needs for survival, financial stability, economical balance and military superiority. History has witnessed the rise and fall of many empires, right from Roman era to Ottoman Sultanate, empires struggled to achieve stability and security, and once achieved, empires adopted expansionist methodology. The ultimate objective of a regional power is to become a contender on the global arena and dominate the international system.
The international theory of politics has three important focal points. Those state that are in complete anarchy, which means there is either no decentralisation of power or distributive governing mechanism. The state has an evolved aggressive military strategy, which means that either they have been modernising their military throughout the time, or have achieved military superiority in any form of advanced warfare. The state has already anticipated the movements of other, let’s say, neighbouring states, and is already aware about its future actions or movements. In light of modern warfare and aggressive diplomacy tactics and globalization, it has become quite possible for national leaders to establish preventive defence or offensive strategy on the apprehension of rival country’s movements.
During post World War II, it was very difficult for nations to strategize offensive and defence mechanism at a multi-level, fearing which states followed “one door open” policy, which was initially post incident response mechanism designed for top political leadership to first understand “what were they hit”. This is sometimes referred to as “night watchman” policy. It is important for us to understand that, the policy did not apply to “anarchy” systems. Thus, nations understood the importance of power and focussed aggressively on strengthening military power. The state which is mighty, the more likely it would retaliate and with stronger force. Americans, for example, do not sleep at night worrying an offence from Mexico or let’s say Canada, because both the countries pose no challenge to Uncle Sam’s military and economic might. But it is not just strength in numbers, it is strong governing system too. The objective is to become a hegemony, declaring themselves “greater power in the world”.
The US has been in regional hegemony since the Civil War. Inspite being a global super power today, the US continues to remain in regional hegemony.
Particular in modern world, can a country live in hegemony? It is impossible for the nations in modern world to live in hegemony, as it is quite impossible to portray and continuously sustain the power especially when there are other “probable” contenders in the world. The nation then goes for a “regional hegemony”, creating influence over regional neighbouring countries. The US has been in regional hegemony since the Civil War. Inspite being a global super power today, the US continues to remain in regional hegemony.
Nations in regional hegemony, have one more important “act” to play: prevent any other “probable” regional powers from posing a threat former’s dominance. They do not want another hegemon and to prevent them from rising, they would create an aura of pressure on the probable state while keeping it engaged in “confused” diplomacy, in an effort to disrupt its rise in power.
Repercussions on Chinese rise in Asia
China wants to be dominant Asia on the same way US does in North America. In order to achieve it, it will try to distance itself from Russia and Japan. It will ensure the rise of no political power other than it. One way is, through rapid modernisation of Chinese People Liberation Army and use it to influence on other nations internal matters, which it does with India and Vietnam. More importantly, it will then mend the international boundaries as how it suits, in an effort to decrease the land size of the neighbouring countries, particularly those bordering with it, a way to assert its presence in the region. China, would then bring long lost countries back, particularly Taiwan under its rule.
There is no reason for China to accept American naval and military aircraft hovering over South China Sea. This poses a grave threat to Chinese security mechanism…
China would then turn its attention to push forces threatening its strategic installations out of Asia. Beijing would go to any extent in an effort to prevent Japan from increasing its military expenditure. Why would a state planning to rise a hegemon in the region want any country powerful in their region? Well, China must take a detour into history as to understand what happened last time when Japan was in power.
There is moreover, no reason for China to accept American naval and military aircraft hovering over South China Sea. This poses a grave threat to Chinese security mechanism, which the Beijing would plan any possible blame to brand Naval or aircraft from America as an “incursion in Chinese waterways” on the international arena. There is absolutely no possible scenario Chinese would accept American forces in their backyard. There is, with absolute certainty, Beijing would imitate American hegemony in the Western Hemi-sphere and replicate it to achieve regional Hegemone.
Uncle Sam reacts
History has witnessed American response on Chinese apprehensions and expansionist tendencies in Asia. The US will not tolerate any nation compromises its strategic, military relations. Quite visible from the 20the century incidents, it will, on any front, challenge Beijing. Hence, the US would go to any extend in containing Chinese actions while contending in every level. Trump administration would behave with China, in a similar way Ronal Reagan behaved with the communists.
Taiwan is whole “key balancing factor” here, which Trump administration would not hesitate to use against China, if Beijing so chooses to expand.
China’s neighbours, particularly India and Vietnam will pose a grave threat to its expansionist policies, if it does so, expand in the South, armed with advanced weaponry and modernised army they will go to any extent to prevent China from becoming a hegemon. Today, India is always on its toes particularly in Arunachal and Siachen, having deployed armoured regiments and military aircrafts in the Northern sector. America will support any military development India or Vietnam needs to defend their boundaries.
China continues to eye on Taiwan, due to its strategic locations, it has already threatened nations to adopt a “One-China” policy, which the US or the Japan would use as leverage over China. As a matter of fact, Taiwan is whole “key balancing factor” here, which Trump administration would not hesitate to use against China, if Beijing so chooses to expand.
The scenario mentioned above, is not pretty, which does not openly explore the idea of a World War III, but also changes the global order particularly when the nations involved in the conflict are nuclear powered. However, there is no optimism about the changing global order today, which on numerous occasions have already been turned uglier. International politics cannot be expected to be a “clean” work station as dangerous politico-economic places the actors in Asia in an aggressive position. This is but a tragic outcome of “international” politics.