Bikes can help the environment, but can they wean entire nations off petroleum? In China, researchers have found that a new kind of bike share may indeed be responsible for the slowed growth of fuel consumption in the country.
While Chinese fuel use is still increasing—up four percent this year—that’s actually a significant drop in growth, compared to the 6.5 percent that it grew the year prior. Reuters reports that according to industry estimates and government studies, a dramatic two-year rise in cycling has helped get people out of their cars.
One major reason for the cycling boom: the runaway success of dockless bike share, which launched in China in April 2016. It has since added more than 16 million bikes to the country and gained 100 million registered riders.
Dockless bikes allow for greater mobility since they don't need to be locked up at a fixed location. While their rollout and rapid expansion has caused some clutter problems in China, many U.S. cities are preparing for dockless bike share. Mobike, one of the major dockless operators, recently debuted in Washington, D.C. Ofo, Mobike’s competitor, has said that it expects to double the number of available bikes globally from 10 million to 20 million in the next three months.
Could the U.S. expect to see fuel consumption drop as dockless bike share spreads stateside? Perhaps, but it has a long way to go.
"Americans are driving more miles, in sum, than ever," says Tim Blumenthal, president of the Colorado-based advocacy group People for Bikes. "Time stuck in traffic has reached an all-time high. Mindful of these two trends, bike sharing makes very good sense."
New York's bike-share system, Citi Bike, offers a good example. Data shows that 40 percent of weekday taxi trips between certain neighborhoods would be faster as Citi Bike rides, and the disparity is even greater during peak commuting hours. In China, taxi queues are reportedly getting shorter and shorter as people turn to pedal-powered transportation.
But “it's too early to make a comprehensive prediction on the rise of dockless bike sharing systems in the U.S.,” Blumenthal adds. He notes a few key factors needed in order to approach anything like China's success.
Dockless bike share is already popular in Seattle. See how it works:
A good dockless bike-share program, according to Blumenthal, needs to become faster, less expensive, and as safe or safer than driving, taxis, and ride-hailing services like Uber and Lyft. Ideal outcomes include reduced fossil-fuel use and air pollution, less congestion on the roadways, and a healthier citizenry—all of which would incur fewer costs on a given city government down the line. (Learn how cycling can help get you in healthier shape with Rodale's Bike Your Butt Off.)
He adds that in the U.S., convenient to access and safer road conditions for cyclists are still a long way off, and seasonal issues like the cold, the heat, or precipitation can make bike commuting a tough sell. But he also says the rising popularity of e-bikes could help address some of these issues and make bike commuting more accessible to the average person.
Who knows—maybe it will lead us to a less car-dependent future.