There needs to be a greater understanding of how low carbon vehicles can meet the needs of mainstream consumers if the huge challenge of decarbonising transport in the UK is to be achieved.
The ETI believes the most promising opportunity is for an increase in the use and ownership of plug-in electric vehicles (hybrids and battery operated) but new market structures will have to be introduced to enable and support the most promising solutions.
A lot of people believe hydrogen vehicles can help deliver decarbonisation. The ETI believes that hydrogen could play a long-term role towards and beyond 2050, but it is hard to see the UK hydrogen industry being able to match the scale needed for mass market transport use before then. The growth in autonomous vehicles also has to be understood as it will affect the number, length and efficiency of vehicle trips and consequently energy supply requirements.
The scale of the challenge to transition to low carbon vehicles is huge. Today plug-in electric vehicles make up less than 1% of vehicles in the UK.
The energy supply for electric vehicles has to provide effective solutions and smart charging solutions need to deliver enough charge by the time consumers need it – and cater for occasions that are unexpected. But, the UK will also need to adapt and enhance its electricity network to absorb predicted demand so the delivery of smart charging solutions can reduce the otherwise high investment needed to reinforce the network.
Importantly consumers have to be willing to participate in a transition. This means the provision of simple, unobtrusive but effective solutions – so it is vital that the needs of mainstream consumers are understood and catered for. The ETI’s current Consumers, Vehicles and Energy Integration (CVEI) project aims to understand the required changes to market structures, energy supply systems and consumer needs in order to encourage wider adoption of plug-in vehicles and their integration into the energy system. At the moment it is trialing new vehicle usage across battery electric vehicles, plug in hybrid electric vehicles and conventional vehicles with a number of consumers and will report its findings at the end of 2017 and into the beginning of 2018.
The ETI is also stressing the need to manage the social impact of any transition as any system that taxes vehicles which are less efficient and more polluting will most likely hit the poorest hardest as this is the sector of society that generally has less opportunity to purchase newer, cleaner vehicles.
Such a large transition will take time and will be necessary to cater for the mixture of vehicle types that will exist at any one time during the switchover. To be successful, electric vehicles need to be designed to meet the needs of “mainstream” consumers not just people with an interest in this area. A large scale uptake from the mass market will have a major impact on the country’s electricity supply and future systems have to be designed today to incorporate any such dramatic movements in demand, because of the lifetime of the assets involved.
The vehicles and charging arrangements designed must be attractive to consumers who will need simple, unobtrusive but effective solutions.
Our analysis to date shows that home recharging followed by workplace charging are the most important locations and a 3kW charge rate – the power rating of a standard domestic socket – should be sufficient for most users’ needs. Developing a public network infrastructure for vehicle recharging is a very high risk investment and our analysis would suggest it is not needed to meet the UK’s 2050 energy and climate targets.
Enterprises such as shopping centres may see commercial advantages in offering charging facilities to encourage more use of their facilities but there also needs to be investment in rapid charging points (minutes rather than hours) as a medium term option. This is where existing motorway networks could be utilised as they occupy the locations and points in journeys where rapid charging would be of most benefit to consumers.
The key point is that the energy supply for electric vehicles has to provide effective solutions delivering enough charge in the time consumers need it – and cater for occasions that are unexpected. So a clear understanding of both consumer needs, the likely demand this will create and how the energy system should be designed to accommodate them are vital to enable any successful low carbon vehicle transition.
As the ETI celebrates 10 years of work in 2017 it is releasing a number of project reports and technical data from its project portfolio. It has just released 26 reports from its portfolio of work on light duty vehicles and will be disseminating further information and findings from its current trials in the CVEI project at the end of the year.