For immediate release: May 1, 2002
Media Contact: Rob Schlichting - 916-654-4989
Energy Commission Forecasts
Near-Normal Output from Hydro Plants
Sacramento - This summer's power output from the State's
hydroelectric plants should approach 85 percent of normal, according to
a just-released report by the California Energy Commission.
The Commission's California Hydro-Electricity Outlook for 2002 report
predicts that nearly 13 percent of California's total electricity needs
this summer can be met with power from its in-State dams and
powerhouses. Last year, when electricity supplies were much tighter,
hydro projects produced less than 10 percent of the State's electricity.
The report acknowledges that this water year, which officially began on
October 1, 2001, has been very dry in the southern part of the State.
Southern California has received just 30 percent of it's average
rainfall. In the northern part of the State, however, where most of the
hydroelectric generation occurs, precipitation has amounted to 100
percent of normal.
Rainfall is unequally distributed in California; while three-quarters of
the State's water use takes place south of Sacramento, roughly
three-quarters of California's precipitation falls north of the capital
city. The vast majority of in-State hydroelectric generation depends on
runoff in 13 rivers that flow into the Sacramento River, the San Joaquin
River, and the Tulare Lake basin. Runoff totals in those watersheds are
presently estimated to be 84 percent of normal.
Looking north beyond State boundaries, the report finds good news in the
Pacific Northwest. After suffering drought emergencies last year,
Washington has had near record precipitation amounts this season. As a
result, more hydroelectric power should be available to California this
summer from Washington and Oregon, further brightening the State's power
The report, prepared each spring by the Energy Commission,
is based on hydrologic data and forecasts from the Department of Water
Resources and confidential forecasts provided by some of the California
utilities. April 1 is used as the yearly benchmark date, since on
average 82 percent of the State's precipitation arrives by that date.
The California Hydro-Electricity Outlook for 2002 is Publication Number
700-02-004F. It can be downloaded from the Energy Commission's website