Most of us are familiar with games of chance. Some of the objects used in games of chance are very similar to probability models. Probability models are helpful to predict events that are likely (or not likely) to happen over the long run.
The activity, Developing a Probability Model, contains numerous probability models for students to conduct experiments–coin tosses, spinners, number cubes–just to mention a few. Students select appropriate designs for conducting probability experiments, recognizing a good model for a particular situation. They conduct experiments and compare what they expected to their actual results, understanding that outcomes are affected by the number of trials–the greater the number of trials the closer their actual results come to their expected results. Wouldn’t it be great to be able to accurately predict future outcomes using some type of model?