Tuesday 28th April 2009, the Guardian reports that ‘Arctic CO2 has peaked at highest level in 50 million years’ according to Johan Strom, professor of atmospheric physics at the Norwegian Polar Institute.
Apparently CO2 concentration levels are now at 393.7ppm after a 2008 increase of 2.5ppm. Strom goes on to say that ‘It is not the level of CO2 that is the problem’ (although very high!) ‘What is worrying is the speed of change. Never before have CO2 levels increased so fast.
Before the industrial revolution CO2 levels stood at 280ppm, now they are on average standing at 387ppm. We are told that 450ppm is the tipping point where we can expect 1m sea level rises and the plant to move into its own negative feedback loop ( ie. unstoppable climate change such as tundra melting etc). At a rate of 2.8ppm/year, this gives us just 28.5 years! D Day has just shifted to June 2031!
And if you don’t believe me, check out this little footnote I found in the NY Times last week!
I heard yesterday on BBC Radio 4 a report that by a world food organisation that by 2030 the world population will have grown 40% and that by 2050 it will have doubled. In short, this means that we will have to double our food production within 40 years!
Given that land resources are already under pressure (and reducing with global warming!) and that water is already a scare commodity in many parts of the world; How are we going to feed everyone?
The GM Food industry must be clapping their hands and my fear is that we are going to see another decision forced upon us because of our inaction, just as we are now facing with the debate over nuclear power.
If we do nothing we may have no choice but to use GM systems to increase food production and to free up previously unusable land for crop production – bugger the consequences because the down side of not doing anything is mass famine and deaths.
We must Act Now, otherwise we may have no choice!
What is Positive Infrastructure?
Positive infrastructure may be defined as follows:-
‘Infrastructure solutions that have a net positive impact and support mankind in their movement away from a resource consumptive life-style towards a one that reduces our resource dependency’
The theory looks fine but as I have laid out below, it is much harder to draw the line in practice, for instance;
- New wind farms that displace fossil fuelled power stations
- Waste to energy infrastructure
- Public transport investment
- Infrastructure upgrades including roads and water distribution systems (as long as not rebuilding flawed solutions)
- New communication systems (as long as they do not include energy intensive data centres)
Hard to fit – Positive locally but negative globally
- A new road where a road did not exist before (think of Africa)
- An airport that allows goods to reach isolated areas without the need for new roads
I include a more detailed list of positive examples at the end of this blog, but it quickly becomes clear that a strict definition is extremely difficult and that any definition must take into account regional priorities as well as broader social objectives.
And so it seems that we need a different yard stick that builds on the concept of environmental debt and surplus where a country with surplus may develop new infrastructure that increases net emissions but a country in debt must always take development decisions that decrease its overall eco-footprint. This concept could be taken even further to apply to creation of Planet Positive cities , the subject of my next blog.
I would be interested in your view on my list
My full list of Positive Infrastructure ( with thanks from my colleagues at the WEF)
- Optimizing low carbon logistics
- Optimizing existing Infrastructure
- Retrofitting and upgrading existing buildings., particularly in making them radically more resource efficient. (Residential/ commercial/mixed use etc)
- Improving Healthcare and Education facilities (and making them disaster-proof)
- Enhancing or restoring natural infrastructure such as flood plains, mangrove forests, watershed restoration and aforestation
- Energy efficient and decarbonized energy infrastructure: Renewable Energy sources such as wind parks, sensitive hydropower, utility grids that allow for feed-in and decentralized electricity generation.
- Avoiding new Roads, Airports and traditional Power Plant/ utilities
- Expanding Public/ Mass Transport
- Creating integrated utilities
- Creating sustainable waste management
- Optimizing Urban development (optimal density – about 150 people per hectare, residential/ work/ leisure/ pedestrian)
- Reducing the impact of the Supply Chain (Forest Stewardship Council, Low carbon life cycle material, Carbon positive data centres)