A--During the recent record-setting cold, the media reported the number of ``cold-related deaths.`` Yet the cold kept many, many people indoors and out of danger. I`ve always contended that severe weather actually decreases the number of deaths, but my family disagrees.
A--An intriguing theory. I`m not sure how definitive an answer I can provide, but I certainly can add to the debate.
First off, let`s make it clear that severe weather is dangerous and often deadly. Extremes of temperature increase the daily death rate for strokes and arteriosclerotic heart disease. Severe weather also increases our dependence on heating and cooling devices, thus increasing our potential exposure to noxious fumes, electrical fire and explosion, should said devices fail.
It`s true enough that bad weather drives us indoors. It`s also true that thousands of people have inadequate shelter or none at all, and severe storms are no blessing in disguise for them. Even those of us in snug little homes might find it tough to cope should the electricity fail, the pipes burst and the roads become impassable. And that`s what some people face with every severe storm.
It`s no picnic on the highway either, particularly in outlying areas and Downstate, where blowing snow can seal major roads, trapping motorists. According to the Illinois Water Survey Department, we`ve had three record winters recently in terms of severe storms: 1977-78, 1978-79 and 1981-82. In those years, a number of people in Illinois died simply by being stranded on the highway: 62 in the winter of 1977-78, 10 in 1978-79 and 34 in 1981-82.
Those numbers are interesting because of the strong dropoff in deaths from 1977-78 to 1978-79. The department`s theory is that people learned how to adjust in the interim. They filled the tank for longer trips and packed blankets, drinking water and high-protein food. And they started paying attention to predictions of heavy snowfall and cut down on unnecessary trips. Unfortunately, deaths rose to 34 three years later. A department spokesperson theorizes that, after two rather mild winters, people became less cautious.
Nevertheless, as far as highway fatalities are concerned, when road conditions worsen, the number of traffic fatalities decreases. To verify this, I checked with the accident and fatality figures of the Illinois Department of Transportation`s Traffic Safety Bureau. Taking the number of highway accidents and fatalities for December through February for the last seven years
(excluding 1984; official numbers aren`t available yet), it`s clear that in those winters marked by a large number of severe snowstorms the number of fatalities is significantly lower than in milder winters.
During the winter of 1977-78, for instance, there were 387 fatalities in Illinois. In the winter of 1978-79, there were 360. In 1979-80 and 1980-81, both much milder winters, fatalities rose to 425 and 437 respectively, even though, during those four years, the annual number of fatalities decreased steadily. In 1981-82, a winter with a record number of severe storms, fatalities dropped to 323.
In those same years, the number of accidents rose precipitously in severe-storm winters. The average number of accidents in the last seven winters is 142,623; in the harsh winters of 1977-78, 1978-79 and 1981-82, the numbers are 178,519; 216,256 and 126,884. Though the 1981-82 figure is below average, it`s significantly higher than the figures for the preceding and following winters.
If you use the total number of accidents and fatalities to find figures representing an average three-month period, December through February generally shows higher-than-average accidents but lower-than-average fatalities. That`s true in five of the last seven years for accidents (again, 1984 figures are unavailable) and six out of seven for fatalities.
Those are the raw figures; interpreting them isn`t something anyone has bothered to do. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, the National Safety Council and the Illinois Department of Transportation say they`ve done no studies to determine why highway fatalities are lower in winter. They couldn`t prove, for instance, that there are fewer drivers on the road to begin with, although the general assumption is that that`s the case.
They and the state police did offer a theory that echoed the one advanced by the Water Survey Department. To wit: The winter driver is a more careful driver. He drives more slowly. He`s more alert to danger. He takes fewer chances. He drives only when he has to. And he wears his seat belt. Police say, in further support, that fatalities are most frequent on beautiful summer days, when more careless drivers are on the road.
It would be a mistake, therefore, to interpret this as evidence that you`re safer driving in winter. That`s like saying that lion-taming is a relatively safe occupation. In each case, it`s the extreme caution taken by the participants that keeps disaster to a minimum.
Readers may submit questions of general interest to As a Matter of Fact, care of Tempo, The Chicago Tribune, 435 N. Michigan Ave., Chicago, Ill. 60611. Unpublished letters cannvidually.