Last week, the National Weather Service (NWS) issued a La Niña advisory for the U.S. from December 2021 through February 2022. NWS estimates chances of a La Niña weather pattern are greater than 85 percent and it is likely to be moderate in strength.
As a result of the advisory, NWS currently projects both a warmer and drier-than-normal winter for Southern California. Consequently, relief from the current drought conditions are unlikely.
This is the second-consecutive year a La Niña weather pattern has dominated the U.S.
Earlier this month, Alex Tardy, warning coordination meteorologist at NWS in San Diego, reported that Idyllwild’s 2020-21 rainfall was about 14.5 inches, nearly 10 inches less than the 20-year average. He noted this would be the Hill’s eighth driest year on record.
Besides having low rainfall, this summer was abnormally warm in the deserts and mountains of Southern California, according to Tardy.
These weather conditions are affected by equatorial water temperatures in the central and eastern portions of the Pacific Ocean. The expected cooler ocean temperatures are the harbinger of the anticipated La Niña pattern.
In its press release, NWS stated, “The forecaster consensus also anticipates La Niña to continue through the winter, with ENSO-neutral [neither La Niña nor El Niño] predicted to return during March-May 2022.” While dry and warm in the Southwest, the pacific Northwest may incur cooler and wetter days this winter.
An El Niño, sibling to La Niña, is associated with a colder and wetter winter than normal in Southern California.