1 Pascal s wager
2 So far we have discussed a number of arguments for or against the existence of God. In the reading for today, Pascal asks not Does God exist? but Should we believe in God? What is distinctive about Pascal s approach to the latter question is that he thinks that we can answer it without first answering the former question. Here is what he has to say about the question, Does God exist? : Let us then examine this point, and let us say: Either God is or he is not. But to which view shall we be inclined? Reason cannot decide this question. Infinite chaos separates us. At the far end of this infinite distance a coin is being spun which will come down heads or tails. How will you wager? Reason cannot make you choose either, reason cannot prove either wrong. Pascal is here expressing a kind of skepticism about the ability of human reason to deliver an answer to this question.
3 But, he notes, this does not remove the necessity of our choosing to believe, or not believe, in God: Yes, but you must wager. There is no choice, you are already committed. Which will you choose then? Let us see: since a choice must be made, let us see which offers you the least interest. You have two things to lose: the true and the good; and two things to stake: your reason and your will, your knowledge and your happiness.... Since you must necessarily choose, your reason is no more affronted by choosing one rather than the other.... But your happiness? Let us weigh up the gain and the loss involved in calling heads that God exists. Let us assess the two cases: if you win you win everything, if you lose you lose nothing. Do not hesitate then; wager that he does exist. This is quite different than the sorts of arguments we have discussed so far for belief in God. Each of those arguments made a case for belief in God on the basis of a case for the truth of that belief; Pascal focuses on the happiness that forming the belief might bring about.
4 Pascal was one of the first thinkers to systematically investigate what we now call decision theory, and elements of his thought on this topic clearly guide his presentation of the Let us assess the two cases: if you win you win everything, if you lose you lose nothing. Do not hesitate then; wager that he does exist. A difference in kind between this argument and the arguments for the existence of God we have considered. Pascal does not provide us any evidence for thinking that God exists. He gives us prudential rather than theoretical reasons for forming a belief that God exists. The distinction between these two kinds of reasons. But why does happiness give us a reason to believe in God, rather than not believe? Pascal spells out his reasoning, Pascal using goes an onanalogy to spellwith out more gambling: explicitly his reasoning for thinking that it is rational to believe in God, using an analogy with gambling:... since there is an equal chance of gain and loss, if you stood to win only two lives for one you could still wager, but supposing you stood to win three?... it would be unwise of you, since you are obliged to play, not to risk your life in order to win three lives at a game in which there is an equal chance of winning and losing.... But here there is an infinity of happy life to be won, one chance of winning against a finite number of chances of losing, and what you are staking is finite. That leaves no choice; wherever there is infinity, and where there are not infinite chances of losing against that of winning, there is no room for hesitation, you must give everything. And thus, since you are obliged to play, you must be renouncing reason if you hoard your life rather than risk it for an infinite gain, just as likely to occur as a loss amounting to nothing. Clearly Pascal thinks that there is some analogy between believing in God and making an even-odds bet in which you stand to win three times as much as you stand to lose; to be more precise about what this analogy is supposed to be, we can introduce some concepts from decision theory, the study of the principles which govern rational decision-making. 2 The wager and decision theory
5 Pascal was one of the first thinkers to systematically investigate the question of how it is rational to act under certain kinds of uncertainty, a topic now known as decision theory. We can use some concepts from decision theory to get a bit more precise about how Pascal s argument here is supposed to work.
6 Should you choose heads, or tails? It seems that neither option is better; each gives you the same odds of winning and losing, and the relevant amounts are the same in each case. Suppose Now suppose I offer you that the chance you areof given choosing a slightly heads or stranger tails on and a fair more coin flip, complicated with the following bet: if payoffs: you if you choose choose heads, heads, and and the coin the coin comes comes up heads, up heads, you win you $10; win if you 10; choose if youheads, chooseand heads, the coin andcomes the up tails, you coin win $5. comes If you upchoose tails, you tails, win then $5. if the However, coin comes if you up heads, choose you tails, get $2, and and theif it coin comes comes up tails, up you get $5. heads, you win 0; but if you choose tails, and the coin comes up tails, you win $5. Your We choices can represent can then be possibilities represented open asto follows: you with the following table: Courses of action Possibility 1: Coin comes up heads Possibility 2: Coin comes up tails Choose heads Win $10 Win $5 Chose tails Win $2 Win $5 If given this bet, should you choose heads, or choose tails? Unlike the simpler bet, it Obviously, seems that you should here there choose is an heads. obvious One way answer to put tothe this reason question: for this you is as should follows: choose there is heads. one possibility on which Theyou reason are better why is off clear. having There chosen areheads, only two and relevant no possibility wayson that which things you could are worse turnoff out: choosing the heads. This coin is to could say that come choosing up heads, heads or dominates come up tails. choosing If it tails. comes up heads, then you are better off if you chose heads. If it comes up tails, then it doesn t matter which option you chose. It seems One way very of plausible puttingthat thisif scenario you are choosing is that the between worsta outcome and B, and of choosing heads A dominates is as choosing good B, it is rational as the to best choose outcome A. of choosing tails, and the best outcome of choosing heads is better than the best outcome of choosing tails. When this is true, we say that choosing heads superdominates choosing tails. It seems clear that if you have just two courses of action, and one superdominates the other, you should choose that one. Superdominance is the first important concept from decision theory to keep in mind. The next important concept is expected utility. The expected utility of a decision is the amount of utility (i.e., reward) that you should expect that decision to yield. Recall the
7 3.1 The argument from superdominance One version of Pascal s argument is that the decision to believe in God superdominates the decision not to believe in God, in the above sense. He seems to have this in mind when he writes, One interpretation of Pascal s argument is that belief in God dominates not believing. Pascal says, after all, if you win, you win everything, if you lose you lose nothing.... if you win, you win everything, if you lose you lose nothing. This indicates that he is thinking of the choice about whether to believe as follows: This indicates that, at least at this point in the next, he sees the decision to believe or not believe in God as follows: Courses of action Possibility 1: God exists Possibility 2: God does not exist Believe in God Infinite reward Lose nothing, gain nothing Do not believe in God Infinite loss Lose nothing, gain nothing How should you respond to the choice of either believing, or not believing, in God? It seems easy: just as in the above case you should choose heads, so in this case you should choose belief in God. After all, belief in God superdominates non-belief: the worst case scenario of believing in God is as good as the best case scenario of non-belief, and the best case scenario of believing in God is better than the best case scenario of non-belief. If this is the right way to think about the choice between belief and non-belief, then believing seems to dominate not believing. Is this the right way to think about the choice? Pascal, however, seems to recognize that there is an objection to this way of representing the choice of whether or not one should believe in God: one might think that if one decides to believe in God, and it turns out that God does not exist, there has been some loss: you are then worse off than if you had not believed all along. Why might this be? If this is right, then it looks like the following is a better representation of our choice:
8 If we think about a scenario in which one believes in God but God does not exist as involving some loss -- either because one would not do things which one might like to do, or because having a false belief is in itself a loss -- then believing does not dominate not believing. But there is another way to reconstruct Pascal s argument, using another key concept from decision theory, expected utility.
9 Recall the example of the coin toss above, in which, if you bet heads and the coin comes up heads, you win $10, and if it comes up tails, you win $5. Suppose I offer you the following deal: I will give you those payoffs on a fair coin flip in exchange for you paying me $7 for the right to play. Should you take the bet? Here is one way to argue that you should take the bet. There is a 1/2 probability that the coin will come up heads, and a 1/2 probability that it will come up tails. In the first case I win $10, and in the second case I win $5. So, in the long run, I ll win $10 about half the time, and $5 about half the time. So, in the long run, I should expect the amount that I win per coin flip to be the average of these two amounts -- $7.50. So the expected utility of my betting heads is $7.50. So it is rational for me to pay any amount less than the expected utility to play (supposing for simplicity, of course, that my only interest is in maximizing my money, and I have no other way of doing so). To calculate the expected utility of an action, we assign each outcome of the action a certain probability, and a certain value (in the above case, the relevant value is just the money won). In the case of each possible outcome, we then multiply its probability by its value; the expected utility of the action will then be the sum of these results. In the above case, we had (1/2 * 10) + (1/2 * 5) = 7.5. The notion of expected utility seems to lead to a simple rule for deciding what to do: If deciding between a number of possible actions, it is rational to choose the action with the highest expected utility.
10 How could Pascal s argument for belief in God be reconstructed using the notion of expected utility? Pascal says two things which help us here. First, he says that there is an equal chance of gain and loss -- an equal chance that God exists, and that God does not exist. This means that we should assign each a probability of 1/2. Second, he says that in this case the amounts to be won and lost are infinite. We can represent this by saying that the utility of belief in God if God exists is, and that the utility of non-belief if God exists is -. So on this view, the choices would look like this: Courses of action Possibility 1: God exists Possibility 2: God does not exist Believe in God Positive infinity ( ) Finite loss (-n, where n is some finite number) Do not believe in God Negative infinity (- ) Finite gain (+m, where m is some finite number) Then, to figure out whether belief or disbelief have higher expected utilities (and therefore which is the rational course of action), we reason as follows, beginning with the case of belief in God: Expected utility of belief in God = (1/2)*(Utility of belief in God, given that God exists) + (1/2)*(Utility of belief in God, given that God does not exist) = (1/2)*( ) + (1/2)*(-n)
11 Believe in God Positive infinity ( ) Finite loss (-n, where n is is some some finite finite number) Do not believe in God Negative infinity (- ) Finite gain (+m, where m Then, to figure out whether belief or disbelief have higherisexpected some finite utilities number) (and therefore If which this is right, is thethen rational the expected course of utility action), calculations we reason would as follows, be as follows: beginning with the case of belief Then, intogod: figure out whether belief or disbelief have higher expected utilities (and therefore which is the rational course of action), we reason as follows, beginning with the case of Expected utility of belief in God = (1/2)*(Utility of belief in God, given that God belief in God: exists) + (1/2)*(Utility of belief in God, given Expected utility of belief in God = that (1/2)*(Utility God doesof not belief exist) in God, given that God = (1/2)*( ) exists) + (1/2)*(Utility + (1/2)*(-n) of belief in God, given = that God does not exist) = (1/2)*( ) + (1/2)*(-n) = We perform analogous calculations for the expected utility of disbelief in God: Expected We perform utility analogous of non-belief calculations in God for= the(1/2)*(utility expected utility of of non-belief disbeliefin ingod, God: given that God exists) + (1/2)*(Utility of non-belief in Expected utility of non-belief in God = God, (1/2)*(Utility given that ofgod non-belief does not in God, exist) given that = (1/2)*(- ) God exists) + (1/2)*(m) (1/2)*(Utility of non-belief in = - God, given that God does not exist) = (1/2)*(- ) + (1/2)*(m) = - This The looks caselike is, a apparently, pretty strong clear expected cut. The utility expected argument utility for the of belief rationality in God of belief is infinite, God. and the expected utility of non-belief is negative infinity. So, given that it is rational to act Now sothe as consider to case maximize is, the apparently, following expected objections: clear utility, cut. one Theclearly expected ought utility to believe of belief in in God. God is infinite, and the expected utility of non-belief is negative infinity. So, given that it is rational to act 1. The so as probability to maximize that expected God exists utility, is not one 1/2, clearly but some ought much to smaller believe number in God. -- say, 1/ The argument from expected utility generalized 2. Even if God exists, it is very unlikely that God would punish non-believers for eternity. So the probability that 3.3 The argument from expected utility generalized non-belief A response: would deny lead that to infinite we should suffering, assign even equal if we probabilities assume that to God theexists, possibilities is quite that small. God does, and does not exist. Perhaps it is rational to think that there is only a very remote chance A response: that God deny exists, that we and should hence assign that we equal should probabilities assign a to very the low possibilities probability that to God the possibility does, and that does God not exist. exists. Perhaps it is rational to think that there is only a very remote chance that God exists, and hence that we should assign a very low probability to the Apossibility reply to the that response. God exists. Why the assignment of probability 1/2 is dispensable.
12 A different sort of worry arises not from the particulars of Pascal s assumptions about the probabilities of various claims about God, but from the use of the rule that we ought to maximize expected utilities in cases where the expected utilities of actions are infinite. Consider the following bet: I am going to flip a fair coin until it comes up heads. If the first time it comes up heads is on the 1st toss, I will give you $2. If the first time it comes up heads is on the second toss, I will give you $4. If the first time it comes up heads is on the 3rd toss, I will give you $8. And in general, if the first time the coin comes up heads is on the nth toss, I will give you $2 n. Suppose I offer you the chance to play for $2. Should you take it? Suppose I raise the price to $3. Should you take it? Suppose now I raise the price to $10,000. Should you be willing to pay that amount to play the game? Many people have the very strong intuition that it is not rational to pay $10,000 to play this game. But expected utility calculations say otherwise. The expected utility of playing the game is, remember, the sum of odds * value for each possible outcome. That is: or, simplifying, (1/2 * $2) + (1/4 * $4) + (1/8 * $8) since there are infinitely many possible outcomes, the expected utility of playing this game is infinite. So the rule of expected utility tells you that you ought to be willing to pay any finite amount of money to play. But this seems wrong. This is known as the St. Petersburg paradox. This sort of case relies on an example in which there are infinitely many outcomes, whereas Pascal s argument relies on a case in which a single outcome has infinite value, so the arguments are not clearly analogous. But perhaps this does show that we should be cautious when relying on expected utility calculations in the infinite case.
13 A different sort of reply focuses on the impossibility of believing things at will. If I offer you $5 to raise your arm, you can do it. But suppose I offered you $5 to believe that you are not now sitting down. Can you do that (without standing up)? Pascal seems to consider this reply to his argument when he imagines someone replying Pascal Pascal follows: considers seems this to consider reply: this reply to his argument when he imagines someone replying as follows:... is there really no way of seeing what the cards are?... I am being forced. to. wager. is there and really I am no not way free; of seeing I am begin what held the cards fast and are? I. am.. I so am made being that forced I to cannot wager believe. and I What am not do free; you want I am me begin to do held then? fast and I am so made that I cannot believe. What do you want me to do then? Pascal s reply: and has this to say in response: Pascal s reply: That is true, but at least get it into your head that, if you are unable to believe, it is because of your passions, since reason impels you to believe That is true, but at least get it into your head that, if you are unable to and yet you cannot do so. Concentrate then not on convincing yourself by believe, it is because of your passions, since reason impels you to believe multiplying proofs of God s existence, but by diminishing your passions.... and yet you cannot do so. Concentrate then not on convincing yourself by multiplying proofs of God s existence, but by diminishing your passions Rationality does not require maximizing expected utility 4.2 Rationality does not require maximizing expected utility The St. Petersburg paradox; the counterintuitive consequences which result from (i) the
14 Denis Diderot, a French philosopher who lived a century after Pascal, objected against this argument that An Imam could reason just as well this way. By that, Diderot meant that someone with quite different beliefs about God than Pascal -- such as a Muslim -- could use Pascal s argument to support belief in the existence of a God with the characteristics assigned to God by his religion. But it is impossible to believe both that God exists and is the way the Catholic Church believes God to be, and that God exists and is the way the Islamic faith says God is. More dramatically, a polytheist could use Pascal s argument to support belief in a collection of deities. So what beliefs, exactly, should Pascal s argument lead us to have? How could Pascal respond to this objection?