What Is An Availability Cascade?
Link to peer reviewed paper which set the base for this discussion:
Link to Adilson’s Lyfe Happens Article:
What is an availability cascade? An availability cascade is born out of the availability bias. The availability bias is a process by which what comes into your mind when someone asks you a question is the most easily accessible piece of information i.e. the thing you heard the most, most recent. You replace a hard questions with an easy question. An availability bias is self-reinforcing process whereby when something becomes popular that is what comes most easy to your mind. i.e. you see an positive article on social media about Hilary Clinton, you see more and more of them and then you begin to think that she might actually be the ideal candidate but you are basing that on what's popular vs. what is truly informed.
When people in your peer group start to think and express a popular opinion you're naturally going to tend to agree to avoid conflict.
Informational cascade - The more people that believe in something the more powerful it becomes and the more likely people will come to believe it. i.e. Paul has an opinion and he convinces Sally of his opinion. Now Paul and Sally both share the same opinion. Now Sue enters the conversation and because Paul and Sally share the same opinion Sue will agree because it's easy to tag along vs. debating an opposing view. Now Mike entering the conversation will now also agree even if he does not truly believe in it because Paul, Sally and Sue and believe in it and he wants to fit in.
Reputation cascade - Do things not because of the information but to maintain or increase your reputation. I.e. you may have always thought Trump would have won the election but because of Hilary's popularity and because you didn't want to seem like a racist narcissist you don't say anything. In public you'd share the position that Hilary is probably the better candidate etc. enabling you to uphold or maintain your reputation while in private you will believe and vote the contrary. In the end people will do what will help uphold their reputation and not necessarily what they feel. It's common in politics. Politicians will say something in public which they are personally against simply because it's popular and will resonate with their voters.
Availability Entrepreneur - Someone who understand the dynamics of cascades and the availability bias and manipulates the environment around them to create cascades and move people towards adopting a particular idea based on the cascade process. They can influence the government, business, and markets by leveraging the cascade process.
Impact of social media and technology on cascades
50 Cent moved the price of stock up by his influence
Impact of hedge fund managers and finance influences on markets
John Maynard Keynes beauty contest theory - Pricing of stock market is not based on based on what they privately value but what they think everyone else is going to value it at. i.e. Jeffery Skilling, former Enron CEO was notorious for going into press conferences and speaking as if the company was doing amazing when it was not behind the scenes.
What can be the worst case scenario with the cascade effect? With technology and the scalability of cascades it makes it that much harder for minority opinions can be heard. More Enron catastrophes can happen.
The power of search engine optimization on cascades
Nibin's opinion on the long term affects
Information is going to be so consumable we're going to stop thinking.
Facebooks fake news algorithm benefit
We've lost the art of persuasion and negotiation
Con is short for confidence. Be careful.
Ontario has the highest household debt in the nation
What is enlightenment?
How can cascades be used for good?
Why Adilson is so passionate about the topic
Justin Bieber's brand has a strong cascade effect for people believing in negative or fake news
One thing for listeners to think about as you go back to your daily lives
The risk of expectations