November 5, 2008
The Third Most Challenging Presidency
By Richard C. Leone
It's hard to argue against the proposition that Abraham Lincoln took office at the most dangerous time in the history of the republic and faced the most challenging conditions confronting a new president. The Union was literally coming apart over his election. Although no one could foresee the length or pain of the civil war to come, Lincoln's inaugural occurred with the dissolution of the nation itself imminent.
The challenges facing Franklin Delano Roosevelt upon his inauguration in March 1933 also were enormous. The country was in the fourth winter of the Great Depression, the banking system was unraveling, unemployment was huge and growing, and deep divisions existed about what to do next. Indeed, there was widespread doubt about whether anyone had answers that would work--other than more pain and more time. Simultaneously, the international level of danger was increasing exponentially, for at almost the same time that Roosevelt took the oath of office, the new chancellor of Germany, Adolf Hitler, was reviewing thousands of storm troopers in Berlin.
There have been other tough transitions and challenges facing new presidents, but it's reasonable to say that those confronting President-elect Obama are likely to rank as the third most formidable in American history. Embroiled in two costly, enormously difficult wars, the United States is also experiencing a major economic recession that threatens to be long and severe.
One "be careful what you wish for" component of conventional wisdom counsels the Democrats, who have gained substantial majorities in both houses of Congress as well as the presidency, to act cautiously and only with significant Republican support so that they won't be held responsible for mistakes in addressing our enormous international and domestic problems. This view also holds that great reforms are impossible without bipartisanship.
But American history suggests that is not always the case, as the examples of Social Security, Medicare, civil rights reform, and deficit reduction demonstrate. In the midst of an economic crisis and two wars, what is needed most of all is a renewed sense of national confidence and presidential mastery that assures that these problems will be tackled aggressively. In these emergency circumstances, strong leadership is likely to produce strong Congressional support because of a widespread realization that "something must be done." No one is going to want to be perceived as obstructionist or sit indifferently on the sidelines; indeed, it's likely that some Republicans will join with Democrats in solutions to solve the problems even if the Democrats get most of the credit (and perhaps blame later if the solutions fail). Moreover, there is historical precedent for this kind of situation and it all seems to argue for the virtues of Democrats taking full advantage of their sweeping victory.
When FDR took the presidency, he brought with him both houses of Congress and Democratic majorities that enabled him to take action on a broad front. His choices about policy were not uncontroversial. Even so-called experts were still feeling their way, and there was no consensus about how to deal with the Depression, except possibly the wrong consensus--that is, balance the budget and stay on the gold standard.
Today, in the economic sphere, there is a new openness about fresh solutions to problems, with a widespread recognition about the need for heightened economic oversight and intervention. The steps already under way will change the way we govern the economy for years to come. Capitalism will flourish anew in an environment where public confidence and investor reassurance once again become routine. With regard to Iraq and Afghanistan, and other international problems, the need for new American leadership is obvious. It won't be easy to end these conflicts, but the public is ready for bold changes--ready to move on to compelling domestic priorities. Americans are ready for change--and they will settle for nothing less.
Richard C. Leone is president of The Century Foundation, a nonpartisan public policy research institution.