Outlining the comprehensive facts behind a story is often needed for true understanding of any issue. Therefore the following article is offered as a case study of coastal redevelopment in this 21st century.
Following some preliminary media publications of latest findings and from the early reactions by the public, it has confirmed to us that this local issue in Perth concerns most people. Also, this problem is not in isolation in Australia and has in fact repercussions around the globe. Already buildings are starting to fall into the ocean in parts of South Africa, due to decades of inadequate government control of development set backs from erosion-vulnerable sea frontages. This International problem has been clearly understood by the US Department of Defence, NASA and the global scientific community from some time now. It is now appropriate in a democracy like Australia that the facts are taken into account, inconvenient as they may appear at this time.
Recent publication of early 3-D images in the local newspaper, “The Post” and the Perth main newspaper the “the West Australian” demonstrates to our administration at solar-e.com, that there is a level of genuine interest by journalists and editors to disseminate the facts and subsequent challenges for proper planning of building developments at Cottesloe Beach.
A critical aspect of the development of buildings near Cottesloe Beach and near coastlines everywhere, is the environmental risks and the geophysics of the land on which they are built. The problem is beyond just achieving high standards energy efficiency, solar design of the buildings in isolation and overshadowing the beach at critical times. Of course it is important. But if the buildings are likely to be inundated by the ocean planning and design priorities must change. The big picture needs to be looked at and a long-term vision formulated that suits the geology and the ingress predictions of the ocean through climate change induced level rises. Surely, this is the logical precursor to any planning scheme in coastal regions?
Climate Change Sceptics
What the climate deniers do not seem to realize is that levels are rising and a huge weight of scientific evidence to predicting 900 mm to 1.100 metre rises by the end of the 21st century. For the Western Australian government to now suspend proper planning action for Cottesloe Beach, based on these predictions is very irresponsible. The latest outlandish statement that the earth is cooling not warming at all is a classic case in point.
Tell that to the Icelanders and Greenlanders as their ice shelf continue to melt at an alarming rate, explain why the Bearing Straight being oped up to the sea, explain why Pacific islanders are already being relocated to Australia an New Zealand as their home are flooded by sea water and their crops and fresh water supplies poisoned by salt, explain to the Swiss why their glaziers continue to recede, melting at an alarming rate. Of course they cannot.
The analysis work done on government technical reports by Ecotect-Architects and it’s group of professional colleagues does bring these important chunks of information together in a coherent way. Most professional architects would agree that designing out of the ground is the only way forward. Anything else is at risk of being poorly conceived.
Iconic Cottesloe Beach
The term ‘iconic’ Cottesloe Beach that the people and tourist operators constantly use in describing this part of the western Australian coastline, will not exist unless steps are taken to ensure the beach and its primary sand dunes can move in an easterly direction for a minimum of 30 metres to have any chance of salvaging a beach for future generations. The cost of building sea walls shows be a spectre too awful to contemplate from 2050 onward. Alternatively, the cost of demolishing 5 storey buildings (proposed under the latest version of the local planning Scheme LPS3) along the Marine Terrace alignment and removing the sea walls will be an impost too great for that generation to bear. We need a new planning vision to solve this first step in the way forward.
Of course the overshadowing of the slowly easterly located beach at the end of the century and the 50 year lead up to it will mean increasing overshadowing of the beach to the point where there will be a wall of shade most of the morning throughout the seasons. Goodbye ‘icionic”status! This is the bottom line.
Surely rationally minded intelligent people and residents of the are will see their real estate values fall and their current beach amenity erode slowly from hereon and speeding up in the second half of this century need to revisit their entrenched beliefs and support a new way of thinking to Cottesloe beach.
Already there are tell tale signs of sand dune erosion from the 250 mm rise over the last 150 years. If anyone has not noticed the early signs and a few metres lost over the last already since WWII, they certainly will realize it by the year 2030 when about another 7-10 metres of beach will be gone for many hundreds of years.
Ecotect-Architects are carrying out this work on a pro bono basis to ensure the local residents and the general Perth public fully understand the consequences of planning the future foreshore built environment without taking into account the alignments of the beach and primary dunes as it moves in an easterly direction.
Associate Andrew Ferguson and Colin Henley, as a volunteer architect, have assisted putting this 3 D model together and helping my team to interpret the geophysics, accurately estimate erosion by the end of the century and show the long term effects of ocean rises, storm events and super-tides.
What is the Way Forward and Why?
Key points in ensuring proper process must be handled with care. For this reason our expanding team of experts plan the following steps ahead before moving onto real solutions:
1. In the early part of 2012 the firm will be developing this model further into 3-D fly over movies to explain the issues to the public in a very explicit way.
2. Ecotect-Architects as part of its volunteer effort will be outlining in more detail the ramifications of this 3-D investigation in relation to the current planning scheme that is being negotiated between the WAPC, the Government and the Town of Cottesloe.
3. Ecotect-Architects via it parent company Wise Earth P/L plans to survey responses from the Cottesloe residents as well as the wider community about the consequences of ocean level rises in the future.
4. Ecotect-Architects will be regularly consulting our team of professional experts about the way most prudent way forward in relation to establish a trully sustainable development for Cottesloe Beach.
5. As part of due process the firm will be consulting higher authorities about the legal validity of the LPS3 scheme finally submitted by the Town of Cottesloe and their accepted amendments to the modified LPS3 proposed by the WAPC and in fact the originally proposed LPS3 itself.
6. With great sincerely our colleagues uphold our right to question all the work done by all parties to date. Clearly, it is our community duty and professional responsibility.
7. It has been with great care that the predictive model was generated as accurately as possible to credibly synthesize all of the government commissioned studies on coastal erosion, geophysics and ocean level rises due to climate change. This will be more accurately developed as the work proceeds.
8. Legal questions as to the short term and long term implications of the LPS3 are highly appropriate to be asked at this time. The consequences of ignoring intergenerational equity considerations must have bearing of the responsibility at all levels of governments and reflect an open, legal relationships with landowners in the precinct.
9. It is obvious from this early released 3-D work that the future beach will be overshadowed dramatically by 5-8 storey buildings built on the current Marine Parade alignment. Acceptable solutions need to be investigated.
10. The current 3 D model clearly all development should move eastwards to allow for a future primary dune system and lower the heights to 2-3 storeys max for the first 20 metres or so back from this alignment to prevent overshadowing of the beach in the morning. If the development zone can not be shifted then a lower height temporary (demountable) building approach should be taken along Marine Pde.
11. Any higher rise development will simply have to move easterly and be strategically placed to address many of the issues (and more) that were identified in the Enquiry by Design exercise. This can be done effectively by prudent design and planning.
12. Armed with this 3-D model we believe the local and wider community needs to reassess the LPS3 and the Enquiry by Design conclusions, and adapt to the newly revealed coastline circumstances.
13. All ocean levels shown it the 3 –D presentation are average water levels. Storm events and super-tides will result in about another 1.5 to 2 metre ocean rises intermittently.
14. Full ramifications will be released in the New Year as the complete 3-D picture showing rock formations is completed.
Highly Appropriate Action
The Cottesloe Beach 3-D model demonstrates how design and planning teams have failed to fully understand the implications that our children and grandchildren will need to address.
Also, we believe that it is unethical of any government or local authority to continue to approve any development in full knowledge of the results of ignoring their own technical studies and expert advice. Mainly it has been a failure to visualize what these studies actual mean beyond short-term politics and governance.
Our team is definitely not conspiracy theorists or anti-development. We simply know that most people outside of the architectural professions can not visualize in 3D and believe it needed it to be presented to properly expedite any planning schemes and development regulations.
Hopefully this time consuming and expensive gift to the city and the state will be the catalyst for more reasoned and informed debate on the planning of the foreshore.
If there is more public support and professional encouragement by all levels of government to this initial contribution to the planning debate about Cottesloe Beach, the Ecotect-Architects team is prepared to build a popular technically correct vision for implementation at Cottesloe beach for the next 90 years.
As one community and people of good faith we believe the past needs to be put behind us in the community and sort out Cottesloe beach once and for all and adapt the LPS3 and future planning schemes in a way that functions way into collective future.
Our kids, our grandchildren and our great grandchildren will be the beneficiaries of this effort.