SANTA CRUZ >> Not only has Santa Cruz County finished off its driest rain year on record, but there are early signs that 2014 could turn out to be the warmest in recorded history as well.
With the rain year concluding June 30, just 13.55 inches of water fell from the sky, beating the previous record of 13.88, in 1976. Normal is 31.35 inches.
A cooling trend is expected over the weekend, but that's an exception. The dense fogs that normally swamp the coast in summer months seem to have disappeared, leaving behind sunshine and — so far — the hottest year since the National Weather Service began keeping records in 1893.
"It's just been really dry. (Rain) has basically been blocked for most of the year by high pressure off the coast," said Will Pi, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Monterey. "The only time it really broke down was the last half of February."
Temperatures for the first six months of 2014 averaged 59.5 degrees, which would be an all-time high. The warm, dry weather presents short-term complications and is a potential sign of longer-term trouble. The most immediate impact is fire danger.
Cal Fire Unit Chief Scott Jalbert said a dry winter meant fuel conditions not normally seen until late summer were present in May. Peak staffing levels normally begin July 1, but Cal Fire has been fully staffed for six weeks.
"Our fuels, because of the drought, are in prime condition for burning," Jalbert said. "When we're into the warmer days, the fuels are more primed to burn. They're ready to burn better than they have in years."
If El Ni?o comes as some scientists predict, it could bring wetter weather patterns to help quench the region's thirst. But 2013's average temperature of 59.2 degrees — a tick off the 1992 record of 59.3 — demonstrating a warming trend that could pose long-term problems for Santa Cruz County's environment.
Most of the attention on climate change focuses on the negatives, but there is some arguable upside. Warmer weather could bring more usable land, longer growing seasons and less winter energy use to heat homes. Already, the statewide drought is boosting olive crops in California, where 99 percent of the nation's olives are grown.
But there are serious potential impacts locally. Redwood trees get as much as 50 percent of their water by combing it from fog. A 2012 U.S. Geological Survey study found that coastal fog in the Santa Cruz Mountains declined 33 percent in the last century, and suitable redwoods habitat is likely to shrink in coming decades — even if climate change brings more rain, as some models predict.
Another local impact could be sea level rise. While higher ocean levels aren't necessarily a problem — humans have a long history of managing water flows — those levels bring with them higher tides and stronger wave energy, which is likely to contribute to coastal erosion and periodic flooding.
"That additional foot (of tides), plus big waves, makes a big difference," said Dave Revell, a coastal scientist at Environmental Science Associates, a San Francisco environmental planning firm.
Revell is working on an upcoming report on the climate change's impact on the coast, but offered a sneak peak at a recent meeting at Elkhorn Slough. By 2060, Neary Lagoon, the Boardwalk and even the neighborhood around Kaiser-Permanente Arena would all be considered flood hazards.