“If I had a world of my own, everything would be nonsense. Nothing would be what it is, because everything would be what it isn’t. And contrary wise, what is, it wouldn’t be. And what it wouldn’t be, it would. You see?” Alice in Alice in Wonderland!
In scenario planning, scenarios provide a way to think about the uncertain aspects of the future particularly those that seem most unsettled and worrying.
Building and using scenarios can help organisations explore what the future might look like and the likely challenges of living in it.
As I explained in my last post a scenario is a story that describes a possible future. But no one view of the future will be correct. So scenario builders create sets of scenarios. These scenarios address the same questions and include everything that is likely to persist from the present into the future.
Each scenario describes a different way that the future might play out.
Scenarios are based on educated guesses and intuition and they need to be supported with very good information and strong analysis! They are very carefully crafted structures.
But they are written as stories so that they can make that future seem vivid and compelling. Without that, the real value in determining how the organisation might respond will be lost!
Using graphics, images and illustrations makes scenarios more comprehensible. They are particularly useful when the scenario needs to contain a lot of complex statistical information.
Scenarios are not predictions – they are a way of dealing with uncertainty but no one has a crystal ball. Factors will change! But they provide a way to have a conversation about the future at strategic level.
Scenarios are a way to consider the potential implications of different events. They mean teams can think through possible responses.
They provide a great way to get a group in the same room and using the same language. This can be for a possible future or to help with thinking in a common way about current events.
Scenarios support a positive conversation about how to deal with future uncertainties and for making more successful strategic decisions
In my last post I mentioned that Shell has used scenario planning for quite a while! Well they have produced ‘Scenarios: An Explorer’s Guide’ for people who would like to build and use scenarios, and also for those who want to enhance their scenario thinking skills. I will be providing a very simple guide to scenario planning here on Friday. But if you wish, you can download the Shell guide at this link.
- Leading Change – Your Vision in an Uncertain Future – Scenario Planning Part 1 (wisewolftalking.com)
- Is Your Agency Doing Scenario Planning? (threeminds.organic.com)
- Scenarios: mapping the possible (cognitive-edge.com)