College graduates have lower rates of unemployment than students who ended their education after high school, according to statistics released by the U.S. Department of Labor. In a study released last week by Georgetown University's Center on Education and the Workforce, researchers conclude that the disparity in employment rates proves a college education is a safe bet, despite rising costs.
But one higher education analyst disputes that conclusion, saying the study fails to account for the types of jobs lost during the current economic downturn. Contrary to what some in higher education would like parents and students to believe, a college diploma will not protect graduates from potential unemployment, he says.
According to the Georgetown study, which cites statistics from December 2007 to February 2012, college graduates' earnings declined slightly during the recession but have held steady during the recovery. On average, college graduates earn almost twice as much as high school graduates.
The recession bumped those with postsecondary education downward on the job ladder, displacing high school graduates. About 1.4 million occupations requiring only a high school education are now filled by workers with postsecondary education. Although employers have eliminated positions once held by high school graduates, the number of those jobs now held by college grads is double the number of jobs lost.
Not only are college graduates holding down more jobs, but they make more money as well. Median earnings for workers with bachelor's degrees are 43 percent higher than for those without a degree. Everyone is struggling, but in general, those with college degrees struggle less, the Georgetown study concludes.
The unemployment data suggests that getting a diploma will guarantee more stability and higher earnings, but the numbers don't tell the whole story, says George Leef, director of research for the John William Pope Center for Higher Education Policy.
"It's true that on average people who have college degrees have a lower level of unemployment than those that don't, but it's a mistake to say that if more people have college degrees, there would be more employment," he said.
Workers with less education didn't lose their jobs because they didn't have a college degree, Leef said. Workers lost their jobs because demand for what they did suddenly stopped. Before the economic downturn, workers in the construction industry, who mostly don't have college degrees, did well. But when the housing bubble burst, builders had no need for roofers, electricians and construction crews. Those workers lost their jobs due to the market shift, not due to the lack of secondary education that a simple statistical analysis might indicate, Leef said.
Contrary to what many education advocates say, Leef believes college is not worth it for many students: "We've oversold higher education," he said.
But the Georgetown study concludes that because employers are willing to pay more for educated workers, they see an added benefit to employees with college degrees. Students should pay attention to what employers want, the report recommends: "For workers, the findings point the way to acquiring the skills that the market needs and values."