Harsh winter weather for Ireland?
SATURDAY OCTOBER 31, 2015
(pic: wintry Clare, John Kelly)
As we have been saying all through this year, the coming
Ireland winter should be fairly mild, with a storm in the first week of January
and snow mostly in January and March, and the last snow day occurring in
May. Winter is close to being typical
for Ireland. Conditions will not be too severe, but with the usual occasional
rain and snow. The windiest spell may be in the third week of February.
The Sun determines the temperature cycle, not the El
Ninos, which are part of a lunar cycle of changing ocean current directions.
Sometimes in El Nino westerly winds strengthen and direct Atlantic storms on a
northerly track across N Europe dragging the jetstream south and over eastern
Europe which can mostly miss Ireland. Of
course temperatures will drop in coming weeks, but that is the nature of
The hype about strong El Ninos bringing harsh winters is
misinformed. 1982-83 and 1997-98 were
strong El Nino years but there were no harsh UK winters then. This will be another weak El Nino year. The
weak El Niño winter of 2006/2007 was unusually mild in Europe, and the Alps
recorded very little snow coverage that season. El Niños typically follow a
solar maximum or minimum and we have just come through a weak solar cycle, so
the logical outcome is a weak El Nino,
e.g. the weak El Nino of 2006-7 which followed a weak solar cycle. Alternatively, strong El Ninos follow
relatively steep solar cycles e.g. the El Ninos of 1957-58, 1965-66, 1982-83,
During the last El Nino of
2009/2010, winter across northern Europe, including Ireland was very cold
mainly because there was a deep, long, solar minimum at the same time and
basically the sun was asleep. The same
happened during the extended solar minimum of 1962-62, still called one of the
coldest winters Ireland has ever had. A
further example was the extended solar minimum during 1932-35. What happened then? In 1932 the Niagara Falls
froze over. In 1933 came the Great Blizzard of February 1933 which was the
greatest weather event of the 1930s to struck Ireland, and at the time was reported
as being the greatest weather event of the 20th century. Therefore El Ninos must
be considered along with depth of the solar cycles they follow.
As for specific trends for this winter, the first chances
of widespread snow about 18-24 November, give or take a day or two. November
overall will be drier, sunnier and warmer than average and a westerly month,
with significant rain and strong winds as Atlantic depressions pile in off the
Atlantic. Western areas get the brunt but nowhere escapes above average rain
amounts. Most rain is around 15 and
December is again drier, sunnier and warmer than average.
There may be fluctuating temperatures with rain in the first and third weeks
and a temperature drop around 12-16 December. A frost is likely just before
Xmas Day, then on 26 December come cold SE winds followed by wintry rain as
temperatures barely climb above freezing.
Therefore expect snow on or near 12 and 28 December.
January is unsettled in the first half of the month but
fairly mild, with stormy rain 9-19 January.
On several occasions temperatures will climb to nearly 15C and this may feel warm and spring like. This has happened several times before
so is not global warming, and even
though daffodils may start to flower it is just in response to soil
temperatures. Chances of snow come around 17 January.
February is again interesting as regards daytime
temperatures. After 12 February, winds
from the south draw warm air up to possibly around 14-15C. Then it goes windy between 17-26 February and
snow is a possibility around 17 February. The month is mostly cloudy.
March is a month of mild temperatures, with about 2/3 of
daytime maximums reaching to above 10C, only dipping below 2C on about three
Conditions will be good for snow around 3, 10 and 14
April is much colder than the winter months in the last
week, with possibility of snow around 18 and 23 April. In the last week in
April comes the first decent spell of sunshine.
However, don't get your hopes too high - summer will be cool and
unsettled overall, with some good dry intervals but no prolonged heat waves.
The Weather Almanac for Ireland for 2016 is available in
November from www.predictweather.com