Increase in numbers trying to cut the amount they fly could reduce plane sales by Airbus and Boeing
The Swedish concept of “flygskam” or “flight shame” appears to be spreading. A survey by (bank) UBS of more than 6,000 people has revealed that a growing number of travellers in Europe and America have already reduced the number of flights they took over the last year, because of heightened environmental awareness. Around 25% of flyers in France, Germany and the U.S said they had reduced flights. Only 16% of Brits (16%) said climate change had encouraged them to take one less flight. It may be that over 25% are now “thinking about it,” when asked if climate worries could affect travel plans – up from 20% in May. Global air travel has been grown by between 4% and 5% a year, so overall numbers are doubling every 15 years. UBS is expecting higher costs of flying, and growing climate concern, could reduce intra-European traffic growth over the next 20 years to 1.5% per year versus the 3% per year currently estimated by Airbus. The number could be 1.3% growth in the US, compared to 2.1%, over the next decade or so. That could have a big impact on aircraft manufacturers, cutting profits.
‘Flight shame’ could halve growth in air traffic
Travellers are beginning to turn their backs on air travel over concern for the environment, according to a survey by Swiss bank UBS.
2nd October 2019 (BBC)
The Swedish concept of “flygskam” or “flight shame” appears to be spreading.
One in five of the people surveyed had cut the number of flights they took over the last year because of the impact on the climate.
UBS said the expected growth in passenger numbers could be halved if these trends were borne out.
Global air travel has grown by between 4% and 5% a year, UBS said, meaning the overall numbers are doubling every 15 years.
Industry forecasts from plane makers Airbus and Boeing predict growth will continue at that rate until 2035.
But the UBS survey suggests that high-profile campaigns – like the example set by Swedish school girl Greta Thunberg, which has helped push the climate crisis up the political agenda – could trigger a change in flying habits in wealthier parts of the world, particularly in the US and Europe.
After surveying more than 6,000 people in the US, Germany, France and the UK, UBS found that 21% had reduced the number of flights they took over the last year.
Only 16% of British respondents said they were cutting back on flying, but 24% of US travellers were worried enough to change their flying habits.
The survey was first conducted in May this year and UBS said there had been a marked change since then.
The bank now expects the number of flights in the EU will increase by just 1.5% per annum, which is half the rate expected by plane maker Airbus. The bank forecasted that growth in US flights would fall from the 2.1% expected to just 1.3%.
And that could have a big impact on aircraft manufacturers.
UBS estimates it could reduce the number of smaller planes ordered from Airbus and rival Boeing by 110 each year.
The bank said that would reduce revenues at Airbus, which controls around 57% of the market, by around €2.8bn (£2.5bn) a year.
Boeing and Airbus to see reduced jet demand as climate awareness grows, UBS says
SEP 30 2019
By David Reid (CNBC)
Consumers are increasingly factoring in climate concerns when considering taking a flight says UBS.
Rising concern about commercial flying’s impact on the environment will act as a brake on passenger growth and reduce jet sales from the likes of Boeing and Airbus, according to a new report from UBS.
A survey of more than 6,000 people has revealed that a growing number of travelers in Europe and America have already reduced the number of flights they took over the last 12 months because of heightened environmental awareness.
Around one in four flyers in France, Germany and the U.S revealed to UBS that they had reduced flights. A smaller number of Brits (16%) admitted that climate change had forced them to forego at least one trip.
Chief author of the report’s findings and UBS’s Head of European Industrials Equity Research, Celine Fornaro, added in the note Monday that around 27% of respondents were now “thinking about it,” when asked if climate worries could affect travel plans.
That figure marked a rise from a similar survey taken by UBS in May which came out at 20%.
Slowing growth and sales
Moves are afoot from European governments to discourage flying. France is to soon introduce a €1.50 levy on domestic tickets, rising to €18 ($20) on long haul travel.
Germany is to double its taxes for flights originating from Germany from January next year and Switzerland is another country proposing a flight tax.
UBS’s model predicts that the upshot of personal concern allied to increased cost will reduce intra-European traffic growth over the next 20 years to 1.5% per year versus the 3% per year currently estimated by Airbus.
Airbus also predicts air traffic within the U.S. will grow 2.1 percent each year through to 2038 but UBS trims that to 1.3% as people look for alternatives to taking a plane.
China is tipped to soon be the world’s largest aviation market but while Chinese respondents were not asked, the Swiss bank’s researchers put forward the possibility that huge investment in train travel across China will slow the expected boom in flights.
Airbus’s most recent forecast says almost 11,000 new small jets will be needed to serve European and U.S. demand over the next two decades, but UBS believes that number should shrink by 7%.
The bank says that in Airbus’ case that could mean a reduction in revenue of almost 3 billion euros each year.
Around three-quarters of respondents said they would be happy to fly in an electric or hybrid plane but only one in four said they would feel comfortable in a smaller self-piloted aircraft as a means of travel.
A partially-electric regional plane is predicted by some in the industry to be around ten years away, but UBS believe battery technology may not develop to the point that can power larger craft. [It is not a case of MAY not – it just will not. And certainly not over the next 20 years, which is when we need dramatic carbon cuts worldwide. Electric flight is just part of “magical thinking” which is so dangerous, in encouraging continued growth of the aviation industry, in that tries – falsely – to give the impression that its carbon emission problem can be solved. It cannot. Very dangerous. AW comment]
The researchers consider alternative biofuels as the most realistic option for long haul flights and noted efforts by California and Oregon to set new rules on carbon fuel standards for the transport sector. [Biofuels are also part of the highly dangerous “magical thinking” by which the industry tries to persuade the gullible that the industry can somehow cut its carbon emissions, while growing. It cannot. The only sure way to cut aviation carbon emissions is for fewer planes to fly, and fewer passengers to fly. That is the only way. AW comment]
UBS noted however that while “alternative fuels” generate fewer emissions while being produced, once in the sky they emit similar levels of CO2 to traditional jet fuel.