January 2018 was warmer than the 1981-2010 average over almost all of Europe. It was especially warm in a belt from France eastwards and in the far north and north-east. It was cooler than average over only a few areas of the continent.
Parts of the Arctic Ocean and neighbouring land areas were again substantially warmer than the 1981-2010 average. Well above average temperatures also occurred over the western USA, the Middle East, Tibet, eastern Australia, the Tasman Sea, New Zealand, and parts of Africa. The month was markedly colder than average over southern Russia and central Asia. It was also well below average over the eastern and southern USA.
Anomalies, of one sign or the other, were generally more moderate elsewhere. Relatively cool (La Niña) conditions prevailed over the central and eastern tropical and southern sub-tropical Pacific.
Average temperatures for the twelve-month period from February 2017 to January 2018 were:
- most above the 1981-2010 average in the Arctic;
- well above average over the western USA, over much of Europe and the Middle East, and offshore of West Antarctica;
- higher than average over most other areas of land and ocean;
- lower than average over only a few other land and oceanic areas, including the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean, where La Niña conditions prevailed early in 2017 as well as over the past six months.
The global temperature for January 2018 was well above average. Although not as exceptional as the values for January 2016 and January 2017, it was in line with the upward trend of 0.18°C per decade seen in global temperature data from 1979 onwards. January 2018 was:
- 0.4°C warmer than the average January from 1981-2010;
- the fourth warmest January on record;
- more than 0.3°C cooler than the warmest January, which occurred in 2016.
The warmest and second-warmest instances of each month of the year occur between October 2015 and December 2017.
The largest anomalies in European-average temperatures occur in wintertime, when values can vary substantially from month to month. The average for Europe in January 2018 was close to 2.1°C above the 1981-2010 norm. Only one January, in 2007, was much warmer than this; January 2001 was about as warm.
Averaging over twelve-month periods smooths out the shorter-term variations. Globally, the twelve-month period from February 2017 to January 2018 was 0. 52°C warmer than the 1981-2010 average. The warmest twelve-month period was from October 2015 to September 2016, with a temperature 0.64°C above average. 2016 is the warmest calendar year on record, with a global temperature 0.62°C above that for 1981-2010. The second warmest calendar year, 2017, had a temperature 0.53°C above average.
The spread in the global averages from various temperature datasets has been unusually large over the past two years or so. This is due partly to differences in the extent to which datasets represent the relatively warm conditions that have predominated over the Arctic and the seas around Antarctica. Differences in estimates of sea-surface temperature elsewhere have been a further factor. Spread is also large for the years 2005 and 2006, for which the values shown here are relatively high and expected to be reduced when production of an updated dataset has been completed. Nevertheless, there is general agreement between datasets regarding:
- the exceptional warmth of 2016, and to a lesser extent 2017 and 2015;
- the overall rate of warming since the late 1970s;
- the sustained period of above-average temperatures from 2001 onwards.
There is more variability in average European temperatures, but values are less uncertain because observational coverage of the continent is relatively dense. Twelve-month averages for Europe were at a high level from 2014 to 2016. They fell subsequently but remained more than 0.5°C above the 1981-2010 average. They have risen again recently, and the average from February 2017 to January 2018 exceeded the 1981-2010 average by just over 1°C. The warmest twelve-month period occurred from July 2006 to June 2007, when the average temperature was close to 1.5°C above that for 1981-2010.
The average surface air temperature analysis homepage explains more about the production and reliability of the values presented here.