What do the GCSE results show?
The headline is that those all important A*-C results have fallen for the first time in the exam's history. The margin of the drop is small, 0.4%, but for certain subjects, especially the core subject of English (separate to English literature) the drop is higher, at 1.5%. Yet those results contain a lot of variance it appears. Some schools - even ones in deprived areas – have done very well. But some have done far worse than they expected and this has caused a lot of concern.
Why have the top grades fallen?
A number of teachers and headteachers have blamed the department of education for pressurising the exam boards to deflate grades. Bill Watkin, operational director of the Specialist Schools and Academies Trust, said: "It would appear that changes to grade boundaries have resulted in a discrepancy between predicted results and actual results in a number of schools. What I've been told is that the grade boundary change has resulted in a high number of children just below the boundary … heads are understandably focusing on the C/D boundary."
What is clear is that exams, the way they are marked and the way they are taken have changed even since last year. This is not to be confused with (arguably larger) changes that are taking place in the next few years which stem from the government's white paper The Importance of Teaching, published in November 2010 and including things like marks for spelling and grammar. There are a number of substantial changes which have affected this year's outcome.
What are the changes to GCSE exams?
1. This group is the first cohort which has completed "unitised" GCSE in all subjects. Unitised in this context means the examination is made into units or modulesrather than taken in one chunk at the end of the year.
2. The second change is that with more units there appears to be more controlled assessment, something which started in 2009. Controlled assessments are explained here and replaced coursework. This change may be more significant, as it appears to be where most of the downgrading of marks has occurred.
3. The third change – of sorts – is the way the grade boundary shifts for different grades and different subjects. This boundary decides what kind of mark, say 58%, gets what kind of grade, say C grade or perhaps B. This change happens for every exam period, every year, but this year these boundary changes seemed to have had a greater effect than normal, especially around the controlled assessments.
4. The fourth change is the appearance of exams watchdog Ofqual in 2010, replacing the Qualifications and Curriculum Authority. There are a number of privately-run exam boards which Ofqual oversees, to assure the quality of qualifications such as GCSEs and A-levels. As Ofqual puts it on its website: "It is our duty to ensure all learners get the results they deserve and that their qualifications are correctly valued and understood, now and in the future."
Last month, Glenys Stacey, the chief executive of Ofqual, gave a speech in which she detailed the changes that were happening. She said: "This summer we will see the outcomes, student results in GCSE science, which we strengthened two years ago. We shall see what difference a more demanding specification – in effect, the recalibration of the qualification – makes to grade outcomes, and to achievement. Just to remind you, our future plans for GCSEs include continuing to contain grade inflation using our 'comparable outcomes' approach. Here, those of you in schools can be reassured that we are speaking with Ofsted about the impact this is likely to have on outcomes, on results for individual schools."
So what is Ofqual's 'comparable outcomes' approach?
The short version is that Ofqual has been asking for evidence from exam boards for why grades should go up this year and why they think pupils have done better than the last. This strategy may be the main cause of the shift in results but it is hard to see exactly what is going on behind the scenes. The exam boards, as private companies, are not obliged to disclose information under Freedom of Information legislation.
What do the exam boards say?
One of the larger exam boards, the AQA, contacted the Guardian to explain that along with every other exam board, it had changed its grade boundaries for English – one of the core GCSE subjects – to maintain standards. It said: "This summer, all the exam boards raised their grade boundaries for GCSE English in order to maintain standards. In AQA's case, this was by between zero and three marks.
"The background to this is that, as you will be aware, students often take their units for a qualification in different exam series. We take account of how students have performed in each exam series when we set grade boundaries, in order to ensure that standards are maintained.
"While grade boundaries can therefore vary between exam series, students can be confident that the grade they get for an overall qualification one year would be the same the next. When work is marked internally by a school or college, as in the case of controlled assessment, we review the standard of work to ensure that it is consistent across the country.
"Our grade boundaries are all approved, and supported, by our regulator Ofqual."
What does Ofqual have to say about it all?
Its statement from just after midday is pretty long, but it suggests some of the changes in the subjects, including its own scrutiny, as factors for change. It also pinpoints entry patterns as a factor:
"This year, the results overall are quite stable compared to last year. The proportion of students securing A* to C grades is down by 0.4%. One of the main reasons for this is GCSE science, where a drop in pass rates was expected due to changes in the nature and number of candidates taking the exams, and a more demanding new standard being introduced to make sure the qualification was appropriate for GCSE students. The proportion of science candidates who achieved grades A* to C fell 2.2%.
"We are aware that concerns have been raised about results for GCSE English. This summer most students have taken new syllabuses in GCSE English language rather than English. There has [sic] also been changes to the entry patterns of candidates. Approx [sic] 20,000 candidates from independent/selective schools moving [sic] to other qualifications, while overall, the entry was up. This is likely to be the result of fewer students entering early in the winter series and instead being included in the summer results. The proportion of English students achieving an A* to C grade this summer fell by 1.5%."
Clearly the general amount of change has created unexpected outcomes. And whatever the reasons for the drop in course results, this has made a good number of teachers very angry.