At the end of the PLA’s increasing capabilities are emboldening it to more directly challenge US military policies—such as the air and maritime surveillance activities—that it has long opposed but had to put up with. This being the case, confidence-building measures will have little effect. Why? Because the problem the two countries face isn’t the risk of accidental clashes due to misunderstandings. It’s the fundamental disagreement of principle between Beijing’s expanding notion of national sovereignty and the Pentagon’s insistence on freedom of movement in the global commons.
There are fundamental disagreements of principle that will put China into direct conflict with America. Historically, when an empire runs into conflict with a rising power, then the probability of war is 6 out of 7.
Will the rise of China lead to conflict with the US?
Great power rivalries in history:
1. Spain versus Holland in the 16th century. [War]
2. Holland versus England in the 17th century. [War]
3. Britain versus France in both the 18th and 19th centuries. [War]
4. France and Britain versus Germany in the 20th century. [War]
5. Germany versus Russia in 1914. [War]
6. Germany versus Russia (Soviet Union) in 1941. [War]
7. Soviet Union versus the US and its allies in the Cold War after 1945. [No War]
Because the differences between China and America are fundamental, it is likely that a war would start in a calculated fashion just like Japan’s attack on Pearl Harbor. One day everything would be fine, then the next day America would cease to exist.
How does one go about predicting such an attack?
A Pearl Harbor style attack is the equivalent of moving America and China to a collapse state from a pre-collapse state. First one needs to recognize that America and China are in a pre-collapse state. That is a state where it wouldn’t take much to cause large changes. For example, America teeters on the brink of economic collapse or another large recession. China’s economy is on the brink of collapse with substantial risk of political upheaval. Europe and Japan on the brink of economic collapse, where it wouldn’t take much to push them over the cliff. Russia has returned to a pre-collapse state much like it was right before the collapse of the Soviet Union. Libya, Egypt and Syria are in the state of collapse.
So not only are America and China in a pre-collapse state, a big part of the world is in the same state. This should serve as warning to you that it won’t take much to cause great upheaval in the world today.
The actual timing for moving from a pre-collapse state to collapse state is impossible to make because it can be random. In the case of war between two states, one state just needs an excuse to start the conflict. Some event that sparks outrage or shock on one state would be enough. It might even be phony shock, but that might be enough. Historically, conflict between ethnic groups has acted as catalyst for bigger wars.
As I mentioned earlier, the Middle East is in the state of collapse. Currently Syria is in big trouble and has threatened to drag Israel into war by proclaiming that no peace in Syria means no peace in Israel. This is extremely bad news for the rest of the world, because conflict between Israel and its neighbors is the exact type of catalyst that could cause an attack on America. In fact, there are several reasons why war may break out between Israel and its neighbors in the next few months.
Conflict between China and America may come a lot sooner than most people believe. Conflict in the Middle East may very well facilitate a war within the next year.