has said that it would quit the International Space Station
) after 2024 and launch its own space station
. The move comes after years of posturing from Moscow and amid Russia's war on Ukraine. However, the lack of a clear policy or any other details means that space watchers will be kept guessing over the fate of the ISS.
The ISS has been occupied by humans since November 2000
and is a joint venture between multiple nations and their respective space agencies. Apart from its usefulness for scientific experiments, it has also served as a major example of partnership and diplomacy between countries that often found themselves at odds on earth. With relations between Russia and the West at their lowest in decades, the ISS remains one of the last areas of cooperation. In fact, through all the thicks and thins, Russia and the United States have worked side by side on the ISS, which has been in orbit since 1998.
Even before Russia invaded Ukraine, noises had been periodically made over the withdrawal from the project. However, much of this had come to be dismissed as bluster. Even this time round, there has been no official statement or intimation from Russia's space agency Roscosmos. The information was merely part of an exchange between new Roscosmos chief Yuri Borisov and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
“The decision to leave the station after 2024 has been made,” Borisov is reported as having said, adding, “I think that by that time we will start forming a Russian orbiting station.” Putin is reported as having responded with, "Good."
The US has said it plans to continue operating the ISS till 2028, with a directive from US President to try and make it last till 2030. However, Russia's exit has added major uncertainties to the future of the project. Even the wording of the expression used to signal the intention was unclear. Borisov did not say Russia would exit the project "in" 2024, but "after" it. Again, there is no clarity on how long after.
The ISS is operated as two major modules - one operated and maintained by Russia and the other by US and other countries. The Russian module contains the bulk of the life support systems needed to keep the ISS habitable. If Russia plans to take this module with it when it leaves, the other nations would be forced to design, build and replace it with a module of their own.
Not just critical modules, Russia's departure would also mean the non-availability of the Soyuz platform. This would have an impact considering the US has discontinued its shuttle programme but has seen some capacity addition thanks to the entry of private players like SpaceX and Blue Origin.
Given the current political climate, it seems unlikely that the space detente will hold. In the absence of it, space watchers can only wait for information on how discussions on the exit go between officials of the two sides.
The Space Race
What started as a rivalry in the 20th Century between two Cold War rivals - the USA and the Soviet Union for achieving superior spaceflight capability shifted as a competition between Russia and the USA as far as space missions are concerned. As acknowledged by most analysts, the Soviet Union was the original space superpower. After its fall, Russia stepped into its boots and led the world in key technologies for operating beyond the Earth.
Russia initially collaborated with European countries, but with the increasing hostilities between the NATO allies and Moscow, it has been shifting towards partnering with China in recent times when it comes to space missions. In fact, the invasion of Ukraine which was Putin’s way of reasserting Russian relevance in the world arena backfired and by destroying collaborations with Europe, Russia has transformed itself into the world’s first former space power, as columnist Adam Minter puts it
. Not for a lack of effort — Kremlin tried very hard to build toward a new era of space competition that could be as intense as the previous one.
Coming to the Sino-Russo partnership, Moscow has created missions that would directly hit those of the US and its allies. As per a New York Times report
, Moscow has convergently partnered with Beijing for a robotic mission to an asteroid in 2024 – the same time it has said that it will have its own Russian orbital station. The two countries are also coordinating a series of lunar missions
to build a permanent research base on the South Pole of the Moon by 2030. It has already begun with the initial explorations and in the first of these missions, a Russian aircraft named Luna is to launch in October this year.