By Daniel Grossman in Copenhagen
Since I began taking interest in global warming, I’ve heard scientists say “beware of surprises.” In the esoteric field of climate research, a surprise is bad: a dangerous unanticipated change to Earth’s climate, weather patterns, ocean currents and other “Earth systems,” or life on the planet. We usually expect that if a cause produces an effect, a little more of the cause will produce a little more effect. Many scientists worry that sometimes a little more cause might instead be the straw that breaks the camel’s back. A big unexpected effect. A surprise.
On Monday, the Convention on Biological Diversity, an international scientific organization, and the United Nations Environment Programme jointly issued a report raising new concerns about a serious problem of the suprise kind that climate researchers weren’t even aware of until about 5 years ago. Ask just about anybody about the consequences of putting too much carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, and most likely they will say the gas causes Earth to grow warmer. That’s true. But the extra carbon dioxide causes another problem: it dissolves in the ocean’s waters, creating carbonic acid. The new report says this effect, called ocean acidification, has already made sea water 30 percent more acidic since before industrial burning of coal and oil began about 150 years ago. The problem is that over-acidic sea water prevents some species from forming and retaining their shells. And these animals cannot live without protective shells.
I asked Thomas Lovejoy, who wrote the preface to the new report, what its findings mean. Until recently Lovejoy was president of the Heinz Center on Biodiversity in Washington. Before that he was the chief biodiversity advisor to the World Bank. I first met him about 25 years ago when I worked briefly at the World Wildfe Fund, where he was on staff at its Washington, D.C. headquarters. He had recently created an ingenious experiment for figuring out how clear-cutting in the Amazon affects wildlife in the forest that remains. He convinced loggers to leave patches of various sizes untouched in regions they cut down. At his request, the timber companies essentially created huge biological laboratories consisting of squares of virgin forest in the middle of cleared wasteland. Researchers are still making important discoveries about how much untouched woodlands different species need to thrive.
Lovejoy told me that the new ocean acidification study adds new urgency to climate negotiations, by confirming that carbon dioxide does much more than just warm the planet. He explained that researchers now predict that unless people find ways to produce much less carbon dioxide–or, in addition, begin soaking up carbon dioxide by planting vast numbers of trees–the acidity of the oceans will more than double in the next 40 years. This rate is 100 times faster than any changes in ocean acidity in the last 20 million years, making it unlikely that marine life can somehow adapt to the changes. Lovejoy says that thousands of tiny but critically important species at the base of the marine food chain with strange names (like foraminifera, pteropods and coccolithophores) will suffer directly from the change. Predators of these critters–and their predators, up to the top of the marine food chain–will suffer indirectly. The scientist says it’s “like pulling the rug out from under the marine food chain.”
Daniel Grossman has been a print journalist and radio and web producer for 20 years. He has reported from all seven continents including from within 800 miles of both the south and north poles. He has produced radio stories and documentaries on science and the environment for National Public Radio’s show Weekend Edition; Public Radio International’s show on the environment Living on Earth and news magazine, The World and many other international broadcasters. Among others, he has written for the New York Times, The Boston Globe, Discover, Audubon and Scientific American.