A new U.S. Forest Service report predicts that Idaho won’t face the same water shortages as the Southwest, parts of California and the southern and central Great Plains.
These areas are expected to be the most vulnerable areas in the nation to water shortages during the next 60 years, the report said. Climate change will substantially increase water demand and reduce water supply in those regions even as cities, farms and thermoelectric facilities become more efficient in their water usage.
Scientists from the U.S. Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station, Colorado State University and Princeton University used global climate models and other data to predict future water supply and demand, and the likelihood of future water shortages. The research team showed where water shortages would occur if populations grew and climates changed—but water-allocation rules, infrastructure, laws and use trends stayed the same. The report shows where adaptation measures will be most needed.
But Idaho had only a low risk of shortage, according to the maps in the report. That does not mean there won’t be drought years, only less risk they will lead to shortages here than in the Southwest.
“We were surprised to find that climate change is likely to have a much greater effect on future water demands than population growth.,” said Tom Brown, Research Economist at the Rocky Mountain Research Station.