November 03, 2011
The higher population projections published by the ONS last week have implications for the number of new homes required to house future immigrants to Britain.
The government’s projections of future households are calculated largely on the basis of the population projections. The most recent set were published in November 2010 (based on the 2008 based population projections) and are an important part of the evidence base for assessing future housing demand.
The 2008 household projections showed a 27% increase between 2008 and 2033 with an average annual increase of 232,000 households. However, if there had been no net migration the increase would have been only 149,000 a year – so about 83,000 households a year, on average, were expected to result from net migration; that is about 2,075,000 over the period.
The details of international migration to England are not yet available but an estimate based on the difference between net migration into the UK in the 2010 projection compared with the 2008 projection gives a difference between the two of 569,000 over the next 25 years. This implies that net migration into the UK is now assumed to be some 12.5% higher than in the previous population projections. Multiplying this into the additional household numbers (2,081,000), which are projected solely as a result of migration, in the 2010 household projections, gives an additional 260,000 homes required over the 25 years to 2034/5.
Commenting, Sir Andrew Green, Chairman of Migration Watch UK said “This is a further indication of the extent of pressure on housing that stems from the present massive levels of immigration. It can only add to the pressures on our countryside and especially the green belt.”
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