- A study has found that CFC-11 emissions are on the rise.
- CFC production was banned by 12 European countries in 1989 because they were found to be contributing to global warming by eating away the Earth's ozone layer.
- No one knows exactly where the emissions are originating but due to where the CFC concentrations have increased, "somewhere in East Asia" is the most likely culprit.
CFC emissions are rising again and scientists believe they are coming from an unidentified source in East Asia, according to a study published in Nature on May 16.
CFCs, or chlorofluorcarbons, once powered everything from our fridges to our deodorant cans. They were widely used because they were easily controlled and great for fighting fires.
But in the late 1980s, scientists discovered CFCs were eating a hole in Earth's ozone layer, particularly over Antarctica. On March 2, 1989, 12 European countries pledged to ban all production of CFCs by the year 2000 in what's known as the Montreal Protocol.
CFC production was supposed to be out of production worldwide by 2010. Of course, that boosted the price of black market CFCs, so it's never been 100% effective.
The rate of CFC emissions dropped significantly until 2012, when its decline suddenly slowed by around 50%.
The Nature study found that emissions of one particular type, CFC-11, then started to rise. Between 2014 and 2016, it rose by as much as 25% on the average levels in the atmosphere from between 2002 and 2012.
Here's the chart:
For comparison, here are the rates of the other two damaging CFCs:
"We're raising a flag to the global community to say, ‘This is what's going on, and it is taking us away from timely recovery of the ozone layer'," the study's lead author, US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration scientist Stephen Montzka said in a statement.
It's the first time that emissions of one of the three long-lived forms of CFC has increased for a sustained period since the late 80s.
CFC-11 is the version that was most widely used in fridges, freezers, and foam building insulation back in the bad old days.
"The increase in emission of CFC-11 appears unrelated to past production; this suggests unreported new production," according to the study.
Montzka notes that no one knows whether "it is being made for some specific purpose, or inadvertently as a side product of some other chemical process."
Its research team ruled out CFC-11 being released from the destruction of old buildings with the old style insulation because the data didn't fit. And any changes in wind patterns and atmospheric conditions over time don't add up either, because other gas emissions haven't increased.
The only answer is simply an increase in use, and because CFC concentrations have increased in the Southern Hemisphere more than the Northern Hemisphere, "somewhere in East Asia" is the most likely culprit.
"Further work is needed to figure out exactly why emissions of CFC-11 are increasing, and if something can be done about it soon," the study adds.