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Copenhagen climate change summit: We should not just keep calm and carry on, argues Bob Ward from the London School of Economics
The warming of the Earth is having a broader impact on the climate, with changes in the severity and frequency of extreme weather events, says Mr Ward
There are many benefits from taking preventative action on climate change, even if we cannot be certain about its future impacts, says Bob Ward of the LSE's Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment
We have understood for more than 150 years that the Earth is warmer than it otherwise would be because of its atmosphere which contains gases such as carbon dioxide that trap heat reflected by the planet from the Sun to create ‘the greenhouse effect’.
This is well-established basic physics.
We also know that increasing the amount of greenhouse gases will lead to more heat being trapped, hence warming the planet.
We know too that the levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere have increased by more than a third since the 19th century, primarily due to the burning of fossil fuels such as coal and oil.
And we also know that the average temperature of the Earth has increased over the past century by almost one degree centigrade. Eight of the ten warmest years since thermometer records began in the 19th century have occurred since 2000.
The warming of the Earth is having a broader impact on the climate, with changes in the severity and frequency of extreme weather events, such as heatwaves and floods, and rising sea levels.
None of these basic facts are affected by the controversy about e-mail messages hacked from the University of East Anglia, but an independent investigation is needed to determine whether researchers have behaved appropriately, for instance, in dealing with requests for access to their data about weather records.
Cumbria, after the devastating floods. In the UK, our landscape would change dramatically, with coastlines affected by higher sea levels and many plant and animal species having to migrate northwards, argues Bob Ward
The University of East Anglia uses information from national weather stations all over the world to create a record of average world temperature.
Its record shows that the Earth has warmed over the last 100 years, as does independent records compiled by organisations such as Nasa and the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
While we understand very well trends in temperature over the past century, we are less certain about what will happen in the future.
We are not certain by how much the Earth will warm if we continue to pump greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, but climate researchers have estimated that there is a risk of temperatures rising by 5˚C or more by the end of the century.
That may not seem much compared with daily temperature changes, but the planet has not experienced an average that is as high as that for more than 30million years.
It would result in a change in climate that would transform the planet and disrupt the lives and livelihoods of billions of people.
In the UK, our landscape would change dramatically, with coastlines affected by higher sea levels and many plant and animal species having to migrate northwards.
People on lower incomes would find it most difficult to cope with climate change, by adapting their homes to more extremely hot days, or more flooding events.
But even rich people will not be able escape the impacts.
Some people argue that we should just carry on changing the climate through our emissions and adapt to the changes.
But that is a complacent attitude that ignores the difficulties we have coping with the current climate, as the recent flooding in Cumbria has shown.
Instead, we can limit the risks of climate change if we drastically reduce the amount of greenhouse gases that we pump into the atmosphere. This can be done cost-effectively.
We can invest in sources of energy, like wind turbines and solar panels, which do not emit a lot of greenhouse gases, and in technologies that trap and store carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels. We can use forms of transport that are powered by ‘green’ electricity.
This will involve an investment and in the short-term, the prices of products and services that involve greenhouse gas emissions will rise. But these impacts can be lessened by using energy more efficiently.
And the development of the new sources of energy will create opportunities for ‘low-carbon’ jobs.
So there are many benefits from taking preventative action on climate change, even if we cannot be certain about its future impacts.
We know that allowing greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere to rise unchecked carries big risks, and it is sensible for us to manage them cost-effectively.
For that reason, world leaders should reach an agreement at the United Nations climate change conference in Copenhagen this month to strongly reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to adapt to those impacts of climate change that cannot now be avoided.
We should do this to ensure the well-being and prosperity of ourselves, our children and future generations.
- Bob Ward is policy and communications director at the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at London School of Economics and Political Science
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