If you can't explain the 'pause', you can't explain the cause...
” We cannot predict what the weather will do on any given day far into the future. But if we understand the boundary conditions and how they are altered, we can predict fairly accurately how the range of possible weather patterns will be affected. Climate change is a change in the boundary conditions on our weather systems .” [ bold by edh ]
"The presented argument is meant to ASSURE us that the boundary conditions for the climate system process modeling solely and completely determine the solution of the IBVP-formulation of the climate process models."
The prediction in this 1978 paper was for CO2 levels to double in 50 years (340 ppm X 2 = 680 ppm by 2028). We're at 400 ppm, an 18% increase in the 36 years since 1978, which means we'll have to quintuple our rate of CO2 concentration rise in the next 14 years for this prediction to come true.Another prediction in this 1978 paper was that by 2028 we'd have sea level rise by 5 meters, which is 197 inches. According to the IPCC, the sea level rise rate between 1901 and 2010 was 6.6 inches per century. So if we divide 6.6 inches by 1/3rd of a century (1978-now), we have a grand total of just about 2.2 inches of sea level rise in the last 35 years, or since the prediction of 197 inches of sea level rise in 50 years was made. There are still 14 years left to rise by 195 inches, but as of right now the prediction is just 1/2 of 1% of the way there. https://courses.seas.harvard.edu/climate/eli/Courses/global-change-debates/Sources/18-West-Antarctic-ice-sheets/nature_mercer_1978_wais.pdf"I contend that a major disaster -- a rapid 5 m rise in sea level, caused by deglaciation of West Antarctica -- may be imminent or in progress after atmospheric content of CO2 has only doubled . This concentration of CO2 will be reached in about 50 years  if fossil fuels continue to be consumed at its current  accelerating rate, or within about 200 years if consumption is held constant at today's level."