Frequently Asked Question 3.2
How is Precipitation Changing?
Observations show that changes are occurring in the amount, intensity, frequency and type of precipitation. These aspects of precipitation generally exhibit large natural variability, and El Niño and changes in atmospheric circulation patterns such as the North Atlantic Oscillation have a substantial influence. Pronounced long-term trends from 1900 to 2005 have been observed in precipitation amount in some places: significantly wetter in eastern North and South America, northern Europe and northern and central Asia, but drier in the Sahel, southern Africa, the Mediterranean and southern Asia. More precipitation now falls as rain rather than snow in northern regions. Widespread increases in heavy precipitation events have been observed, even in places where total amounts have decreased. These changes are associated with increased water vapour in the atmosphere arising from the warming of the world’s oceans, especially at lower latitudes. There are also increases in some regions in the occurrences of both droughts and floods.
Precipitation is the general term for rainfall, snowfall and other forms of frozen or liquid water falling from clouds. Precipitation is intermittent, and the character of the precipitation when it occurs depends greatly on temperature and the weather situation. The latter determines the supply of moisture through winds and surface evaporation, and how it is gathered together in storms as clouds. Precipitation forms as water vapour condenses, usually in rising air that expands and hence cools. The upward motion comes from air rising over mountains, warm air riding over cooler air (warm front), colder air pushing under warmer air (cold front), convection from local heating of the surface, and other weather and cloud systems. Hence, changes in any of these aspects alter precipitation. As precipitation maps tend to be spotty, overall trends in precipitation are indicated by the Palmer Drought Severity Index (see Figure 1), which is a measure of soil moisture using precipitation and crude estimates of changes in evaporation.
A consequence of increased heating from the human-induced enhanced greenhouse effect is increased evaporation, provided that adequate surface moisture is available (as it always is over the oceans and other wet surfaces). Hence, surface moisture effectively acts as an ‘air conditioner’, as heat used for evaporation acts to moisten the air rather than warm it. An observed consequence of this is that summers often tend to be either warm and dry or cool and wet. In the areas of eastern North and South America where it has become wetter (Figure 1), temperatures have therefore increased less than elsewhere (see FAQ 3.3, Figure 1 for changes in warm days). Over northern continents in winter, however, more precipitation is associated with higher temperatures, as the water holding capacity of the atmosphere increases in the warmer conditions. However, in these regions, where precipitation has generally increased somewhat, increases in temperatures (FAQ 3.1) have increased drying, making the precipitation changes less evident in Figure 1.
As climate changes, several direct influences alter precipitation amount, intensity, frequency and type. Warming accelerates land surface drying and increases the potential incidence and severity of droughts, which has been observed in many places worldwide (Figure 1). However, a well-established physical law (the Clausius-Clapeyron relation) determines that the water-holding capacity of the atmosphere increases by about 7% for every 1°C rise in temperature. Observations of trends in relative humidity are uncertain but suggest that it has remained about the same overall, from the surface throughout the troposphere, and hence increased temperatures will have resulted in increased water vapour. Over the 20th century, based on changes in sea surface temperatures, it is estimated that atmospheric water vapour increased by about 5% in the atmosphere over the oceans. Because precipitation comes mainly from weather systems that feed on the water vapour stored in the atmosphere, this has generally increased precipitation intensity and the risk of heavy rain and snow events. Basic theory, climate model simulations and empirical evidence all confirm that warmer climates, owing to increased water vapour, lead to more intense precipitation events even when the total annual precipitation is reduced slightly, and with prospects for even stronger events when the overall precipitation amounts increase. The warmer climate therefore increases risks of both drought − where it is not raining − and floods − where it is − but at different times and/or places. For instance, the summer of 2002 in Europe brought widespread floods but was followed a year later in 2003 by record-breaking heat waves and drought. The distribution and timing of floods and droughts is most profoundly affected by the cycle of El Niño events, particularly in the tropics and over much of the mid-latitudes of Pacific-rim countries.
In areas where aerosol pollution masks the ground from direct sunlight, decreases in evaporation reduce the overall moisture supply to the atmosphere. Hence, even as the potential for heavier precipitation results from increased water vapour amounts, the duration and frequency of events may be curtailed, as it takes longer to recharge the atmosphere with water vapour.
Local and regional changes in the character of precipitation also depend a great deal on atmospheric circulation patterns determined by El Niño, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO; a measure of westerly wind strength over the North Atlantic in winter) and other patterns of variability. Some of these observed circulation changes are associated with climate change. An associated shift in the storm track makes some regions wetter and some − often nearby − drier, making for complex patterns of change. For instance, in the European sector a more positive NAO in the 1990s led to wetter conditions in northern Europe and drier conditions over the Mediterranean and northern African regions (Figure 1). The prolonged drought in the Sahel (see Figure 1), which was pronounced from the late 1960s to the late 1980s, continues although it is not quite as intense as it was; it has been linked, through changes in atmospheric circulation, to changes in tropical sea surface temperature patterns in the Pacific, Indian and Atlantic Basins. Drought has become widespread throughout much of Africa and more common in the tropics and subtropics.
As temperatures rise, the likelihood of precipitation falling as rain rather than snow increases, especially in autumn and spring at the beginning and end of the snow season, and in areas where temperatures are near freezing. Such changes are observed in many places, especially over land in middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, leading to increased rains but reduced snowpacks, and consequently diminished water resources in summer, when they are most needed. Nevertheless, the often spotty and intermittent nature of precipitation means observed patterns of change are complex. The long-term record emphasizes that patterns of precipitation vary somewhat from year to year, and even prolonged multi-year droughts are usually punctuated by a year of heavy rains; for instance as El Niño influences are felt. An example may be the wet winter of 2004-2005 in the southwestern USA following a six-year drought and below-normal snowpack.
FAQ 3.2, Figure 1. The most important spatial pattern (top) of the monthly Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for 1900 to 2002. The PDSI is a prominent index of drought and measures the cumulative deficit (relative to local mean conditions) in surface land moisture by incorporating previous precipitation and estimates of moisture drawn into the atmosphere (based on atmospheric temperatures) into a hydrological accounting system. The lower panel shows how the sign and strength of this pattern has changed since 1900. Red and orange areas are drier (wetter) than average and blue and green areas are wetter (drier) than average when the values shown in the lower plot are positive (negative). The smooth black curve shows decadal variations. The time series approximately corresponds to a trend, and this pattern and its variations account for 67% of the linear trend of PDSI from 1900 to 2002 over the global land area. It therefore features widespread increasing African drought, especially in the Sahel, for instance. Note also the wetter areas, especially in eastern North and South America and northern Eurasia. Adapted from Dai et al. (2004b).