How will Russia-Ukraine conflict affect air travel? Longer flights, higher fuel costs, fewer planes
Following the invasion of Ukraine, the European Union closed its airspace to all Russian airline, Russian-owned and Russian-operated aircraft. Soon after, Russia closed its airspace to all European aircraft. More countries like Canada have since followed the EU, consequently, the number of aircraft and flights affected increased.
So what does all of this mean to air travelers?
The most immediate effect is on travelers to and from Russia. Many flights are canceled, and some have been forced to turn around. One Aeroflot flight was nearing Canada airspace when the ban was announced and had to return to Russia.
Another Aeroflot flight en route from Miami to Moscow was mistakenly allowed to transit Canada. The controlling authority, NAV Canada, admitted the mistake and said that corrective action had been taken to prevent a reoccurrence.
As a result of losing access to Canadian airspace, Aeroflot has been canceling flights to their four destinations in the U.S. (New York, Washington, Los Angeles and Miami), as well as Cancun, Mexico, and Punta Cana in the Dominican Republic.
And last week, Delta Air Lines suspended its code-sharing agreement with Aeroflot, which is Russia's national airline.
During the State of the Union speech, President Joe Biden announced the U.S. is closing off airspace to all Russian flights, joining a growing number of countries around the world that have made similar moves in recent days.
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Longer routes, fewer diversion airports
More consequences of the closing of airspace are the necessity to reroute some flights, adding flight time and increasing fuel costs.
Flights, for example, from London to Asia now fly much further south to avoid Russian airspace. Polar flights from the U.S. to Asia can no longer use Russia as alternate airports. Should an emergency such as engine failure occur, no Russian airport can be a diversion airport.
Under Long Range Operational Performance Standards, aircraft are rated by how long it would take to reach the nearest diversion airport. For newer, more efficient long-haul aircraft like the Airbus A-350, the limit is 370 minutes. For smaller twin-engine planes, the limit is lower.
Some polar flights must have Russian airports as an available diversion airport. Losing those airports mean that the flights must go much further south and may require a technical stop for fuel, which dramatically increases flight time and cost.
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The airspace over Ukraine is, of course, closed, requiring all air traffic to route around it.
The rules for closing airspace were tightened after the Russian military shot down Malaysian Airlines Boeing 777 over eastern Ukraine in 2014. Hence, no civilian aircraft are flying over Ukraine until the conflict subsides.
In the meantime, any plans for travel that might overfly Russia or any of Eastern Europe should include regular information from your airline to see the departure time, flight time and other possible changes, such as a technical stop.
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Fewer planes flying in Russia due to parts shortages, leased aircraft recall
Secondary issues include a ban on aircraft parts to Russian operators. Aircraft will be soon be grounded due to lack of needed parts. This will cause cancellations of domestic flights. Many Russian operators fly European, and U.S.-built aircraft. Once the flow of the parts stops, the reliability of the airlines will be adversely affected.
Meanwhile, a number of leased Russian planes will be recalled or seized in the next few weeks because the latest EU sanctions cut off the supply of planes, parts and technology to that country and its ability to insure planes starting March 28. This will impact Russian air travel as well.
For the aircraft that aren't recalled, it remains to be seen how airlines can make their payments after several major Russian banks were removed from SWIFT, a communications network linking financial institutions worldwide.
Already, European-based aircraft leasing companies are scrambling to recover billions from Russian airlines before the EU's embargo on planes and supplies kick in on March 28. They've also recalled some planes and could seize more.
All of us hope the conflict in Ukraine will end quickly and peacefully. Until then, travelers need to factor the fighting there into their planning. But know that the airlines are doing all they can to maintain our very high level of safety during this challenging time.
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