23 F. average high on January 14.
34 F. high on January 14, 2014.
January 14, 1972: Cold air invades the region with a minimum temperature of -33 degrees F at Alexandria, -32 at Eau Claire, and -29 at the Minneapolis-St Paul International Airport.
More Trend Than Fluke
Odds favor another wet spring, with rapid drying in late summer and autumn. In fact this may be a trend. Dr. Mark Seeley told me 4 of the last 5 springs in Minnesota have been historically wet.
Now comes new research from Dr. Keith Harding, a climate scientist at the University of Minnesota. Rapid warming is impacting the GPLLJ, the Great Plains Low Level Jet. Implications? Summer rainfall is already becoming less frequent and more intense. In fact the timing and intensity of summer rain is already changing, according to Harding. People may not see a dramatic change in total summer rain, but how much and how often it rains has a much bigger impact on people's livelihoods. "With less frequent and more intense rain, on top of higher temperatures, farmers and backyard gardeners would need much more water to maintain enough soil moisture" he added. Details below.
Freezing will feel ridiculously good later today, Friday and Saturday. We cool off again next week; a couple of glancing blows of arctic air by late month, but probably not as cold as last week.
A few wimpy cosmetic snowfalls are possible, enough to give the gritty snow in your yard a quick facelift.
Photo above: AP.
1) "Summer rainfall over Minnesota is becoming less frequent and more intense (with more days between rain events), with an acceleration of this trend expected with climate change. Similarly, heavy rain events are becoming more frequent and intense, and even greater increases are likely as the planet warms further."
2) "Our research demonstrates that the timing and intensity of summer rainfall over the Midwest is already changing, and climate change is expected to drive even larger changes. We show that while there is large uncertainty about how total summer rainfall may change, the models consistently show that the frequency and intensity of rain will be clearly affected by climate change."
3) "We didn't look into how Arctic Amplification may affect rainfall patterns over the Midwest, but I think the jury is still out on the link between AA and extreme events. Conceptually I think it makes a lot of sense, but in reality it's hard to conclusively determine whether the rapidly warming Arctic is causing a lot of these extremes. Unfortunately, it's probably going to take a lot more research (and many more decades of observations) to conclusively answer that question."
"I think one final thing I would add is that people may not see any change whatsoever in the total summer rainfall they measure in their own rain gauges or in official records, but how much and how often it rains has a much bigger impact on people's livelihoods. With less frequent and more intense rain (on top of higher temperatures), farmers and backyard gardeners would need much more water to maintain enough soil moisture. Heavier downpours typically require more robust infrastructure to reduce flooding. In this study, I think we conclusively demonstrate that these important aspects of summer rainfall have rather consistent and clear signals, all of which get stronger with greater warming..."
* More on the joint NOAA/NASA announcement here.
Map credits above: "Percent of normal precipitation required from mid-December through the end of the water year in September in order to reduce rainfall deficits." ( Climate Prediction Center.)
TODAY: Sunny peeks, sweet relief. Winds: West 10. High: 32
THURSDAY NIGHT: Patchy clouds. Low: 17
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy, thawing out. High: 34
SATURDAY: Mild start, flurries, cooling off late. Wake-up: 22. High: 38
SUNDAY: Some sun, still above average. Wake-up: 18. High: 28
MONDAY: Gray with a coating of flurries possible. Wake-up: 16. High: 29
TUESDAY: Nuisance snow. Light coating? Wake-up: 20. High: 28
WEDNESDAY: More clouds than sun. Wake-up: 15. High: 26
Graphic credit above: "Carbon dioxide levels measured atop Hawaii's Mauna Loa from early December 2014 to early January 2015, when they jumped above 400 ppm." Credit: Scripps Institution of Oceanography.
Image credit above: "In 2012, 97% of the surface of Greenland's ice sheet thawed. UCLA scientists captured the spectacular runoff."