Drier than normal conditions could persist in Florida through at least May 25. (Credit: NOAA/ CPC)
The National Weather Service’s long-range forecast issued on April 30 was for a warm, wet May in Florida. The wet part hasn’t panned out, and now a new updated forecast calls for below normal rainfall through at least May 25.
In fact, the entire tier of southern states, from Georgia west to California are expected to see dry conditions — particularly bad news for California where the central and southern coast are in D4 or Exception Drought conditions. Only the Northeast and parts of the Midwest are in line for above normal precipitation, according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
There are no drought conditions anywhere in Florida, because although South Florida precipitation has been far below average, rainfall has been plentiful — in some cases too plentiful — in North Florida and the panhandle. Jacksonville is more than 3 inches on the plus side so far in May, and April precipitation was 3.35 inches over normal.
Since March 1, Tallahassee is 12.92 inches above normal.
NOAA’s June forecast is due out Thursday, but the long-range analysis from AccuWeather shows precipitation may also be on the stingy side, at least for the first part of next month.
June is, on average, the second wettest month of the year behind September in this neck of the woods, although as little as 1.07 inches have fallen officially in West Palm Beach, in 1952.
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PACIFIC WATERS WATCH: The new El Niño analysis was issued today by NOAA showing that sea surface temperatures are now above normal across the entire equatorial Pacific Ocean. Water temperatures range from 0.5 degrees Centigrade above normal to a robust 1.2 degrees Centigrade above normal, the report said.
That’s already El Niño territory. But in order for the phenomenon to be officially declared, water temperatures need to be at least 0.5 degrees Centigrade above normal for at least five consecutive periods of three-months each.
The probability for an El Niño by the June-August period is now more than 65 percent, and the chance for October-December is approaching 80 percent.
A lot has been said about the effects of El Niño on limiting tropical storm development. But it also has a big impact on Florida winters.
“Our analysis shows that precipitation can be 40-60 percent greater when there’s an El Niño in place,” State Climatologist David Zierden said in a recent interview. Temperatures are cooler, “but not necessarily the frigid Arctic outbreaks that lead to citrus and agricultural damage.
“There’s an increase in cloudiness and rain, and that helps keep afternoon temperatures down in the wintertime. We see more of an impact on the high temperatures in the afternoon than the low temperatures overnight.”
Research shows that Central Florida is more at risk for tornadoes during El Niño events, he said. Two of Florida’s deadliest tornado outbreaks occurred during El Niño winters, Feb. 22-23, 1998 killing 42 people; and Feb. 2, 2007, when 21 were killed.