Extreme Weather, Geopolitics Major Drivers of Increasing ‘Food Shocks’
Global food production is suffering from an increasing number of ‘food shocks,’ with most caused by extreme weather and geopolitical crises. An international study looked at the incidence of land and marine food shocks – sudden losses in food production – between 1961 and 2013.
The research, published in the journal Nature Sustainability, identified 226 food production shocks across 134 nations over the 53-year period, noting an increasing frequency of shocks across all sectors on a global scale.
Lead author Richard Cottrell said extreme weather was a major cause of shocks to crops and livestock, highlighting the vulnerability of food production to climate and weather volatility.
“In recent decades we have become increasingly familiar with images in the media of disasters such as drought and famine around the world,” Cottrell said. “Our study confirms that food production shocks have become more frequent, posing a growing danger to global food production.”
Cottrell said his team looked at the full range of global food production systems, covering crops, livestock, fisheries and aquaculture.
“We found that crops and livestock are slightly more shock-prone than fisheries and aquaculture, and some regions, such as South Asia, are more frequently affected than others,” he said. “While the number of food shocks fluctuates from year to year, the long-term trend shows they are happening more often.”
Cottrell said the increasing frequency of food shocks gave people and communities less recovery time between events and eroded their resilience.
“Reduced recovery time hinders coping strategies such as accumulating food or assets for use during times of hardship,” he said. “Combined with adverse climate conditions, conflict related shocks to food production across sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East have led to a rise in global hunger since 2010.”
Cottrell said land-based crop and livestock production are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather events such as drought, which are expected to become more frequent and intense with climate change.
“However, marine-based food production is not immune from shocks,” he said. “Overfishing was responsible for 45 per cent of shocks detected in landing data, while disruptions to aquaculture production have risen faster and to a higher level than any other sector since the 1980s.”
The researcher said globalized trade and the dependence of many countries on food imports mean that food shocks are a global problem, and that the international community faces a significant challenge to build resilience.
“This can be done through measures such as investing in climate-smart food systems, and building food reserves in import-dependent nations so they are better able to deal with the impact of disruption caused by problems such as climate change,” Cottrell said.
EIA Says the Power of Renewable Energy Remains Strong
The DOE’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) this month said it expects that non-hydroelectric renewable energy resources such as solar and wind will be the fastest-growing source of U.S. electricity generation for at least the next two years.
The potential for power growth from biomass, which now represents only about 1 percent of the nation’s total output, is now greater with recently adopted federal policies designating woody biomass as carbon neutral.
The EIA says renewable energy has been the fastest growing domestic energy sector over the past decade, adding that in recent years, the expansion of sources such as wind, solar and biopower has boomed, adding on to the impressive growth of a sector that also includes hydropower, geothermal power and biofuels.
Renewable energy’s growth has contributed to the reduction of coal’s share of total generation from 45 percent in 2010 to 24 percent last year, the EIA says.
Furthermore, the location of most wind and biomass plants and many solar plants on lands leased in rural America offers stable, much needed revenue streams to areas of the country that have been economically hammered for well more than four years due to flagging commodity prices and trade policy disputes.
EIA’s January 2019 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) forecasts that electricity generation from utility-scale solar generating units will grow by 10 percent in 2019 and by 17 percent in 2020. The January STEO also shows that wind generation will grow by 12 percent this year and 14 percent next year. Those increases will raise the share held by solar and wind energy in total U.S. electricity generation, which the EIA expects to fall by 2 percent this year and then show very little growth in 2020.
The projected increase in renewable energy resources is a result of the new generating capacity the industry expects to bring online. About 11 gigawatts (GW) of wind capacity is scheduled to come online in 2019, which will be the largest amount of new wind capacity installed in the United States since 2012. Furthermore, EIA expects that electricity generated from wind this year will surpass hydropower generation. With an additional 8 GW of wind capacity scheduled to come in 2020, the share of total U.S. generation from wind is projected to increase from 7 percent last year to 9 percent next year.
Meanwhile, solar is now the third-largest renewable energy source in the United States power sector (solar surpassed biomass in 2017). With 4 GW of new utility-scale solar capacity projected to be added this year and almost 6 GW in 2020, operational solar capacity will increase by some 32 percent over the two-year span, the EIA projects.
In addition to utility-scale solar in the electric power sector, small-scale residential and business photovoltaic-system capacity is projected by EIA to grow by almost 9 GW during the next two years, a huge increase of 44 percent.
As has been the case for over the past five years, the levelized cost of energy from solar and wind continues to drop rapidly. Lazard Ltd., a financial advisory group, says that with utility-scale solar at $36 per megawatt-hour and wind at $29, both are cheaper than the most efficient natural gas plants, coal plants or nuclear reactors. That savings has contributed to renewables now representing some 18 percent of total power generation, doubling since 2008.
New federal policy that holds biomass carbon neutral is expanding an industry that now stands at $1 billion industry, with 80 facilities in 20 states that accounts for more than 15,500 jobs, most of which are in small rural communities. By using organic forest residues – material that would otherwise be dumped in landfills, openly burned, or left as fodder for forest fires – biomass power is displacing some 30 million tons of carbon emissions annually.
Corn-based ethanol, which research shows has up to 43 percent fewer carbon emissions than gasoline, continues to represent about 10 percent of the nation’s transportation fuel – a share that will grow once the Trump administration follows through on its promise to end the unnecessary ban on summertime sale of E15.
The share could grow even more if the administration follows through on DOE research showing that high-octane, low-carbon ethanol blends up to 40 percent, paired with optimized engines, are among the lowest-cost means to achieve significant car and light truck fuel economy goals and GHG reductions going forward.
Climate Change Tipping Point Could Be Coming Sooner than Expected
A new study shows that vegetation may not be able to continue abating the effects of emissions from human activities, a finding that suggests the climate change tipping point may come sooner than scientists have projected.
The Columbia Engineering study, published Jan. 23 in Nature, confirms the urgency to tackle climate change. Researchers say that while it’s known that extreme weather events can affect the year-to-year variability in carbon uptake, and some suggesting that there may be longer-term effects, the new study is the first to actually quantify the effects through the 21st century.
The study demonstrates that wetter-than-normal years do not compensate for losses in carbon uptake during dryer-than-normal years, caused by events such as droughts or heatwaves.
Anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) are increasing the concentration of CO2 in the Earth’s atmosphere and producing unnatural changes to the planet’s climate system. The effects of the emissions on global warming are only being partially abated by the land and ocean. Currently, the ocean and terrestrial biosphere (forests, savannas, croplands, pasture, etc.) are absorbing about 50 percent of these releases – explaining the bleaching of coral reefs and acidification of the ocean, as well as the increase of carbon storage in our forests.
“It is unclear, however, whether the land can continue to uptake anthropogenic emissions at the current rates,” says Pierre Gentine, associate professor of earth and environmental engineering and affiliated with the Earth Institute, who led the study. “Should the land reach a maximum carbon uptake rate, global warming could accelerate, with important consequences for people and the environment. This means that we all really need to act now to avoid greater consequences of climate change.”
Working with PhD student Julia Green, Gentine wanted to understand how variability in the hydrological cycle (droughts and floods, and long-term drying trends) was affecting the capacity of the continents to trap some of the emissions of CO2. The research is particularly timely as climate scientists have predicted that extreme events will likely increase in frequency and intensity in the future, some of which they say we are already witnessing today, and that there will also be a change in rainfall patterns that will likely affect the ability of the Earth’s vegetation to uptake carbon.
To define the amount of carbon stored in vegetation and soil, Gentine and Green analyzed net biome productivity (NBP), defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change as the net gain or loss of carbon from a region, equal to the net ecosystem production minus the carbon lost from disturbance like a forest fire or a forest harvest.
The researchers were able to isolate the effects of changes in long-term soil moisture trends, such as drying, as well as short-term variability, including the effects of extreme events such as floods and droughts, on the ability of the land to uptake carbon.
“We saw that the value of NBP, in this instance a net gain of carbon on the land surface, would actually be almost twice as high if it weren’t for these changes (variability and trend) in soil moisture,” says Green, the paper’s lead author. “This is a big deal. If soil moisture continues to reduce NBP at the current rate, and the rate of carbon uptake by the land starts to decrease by the middle of this century – as we found in the models – we could potentially see a large increase in the concentration of atmospheric CO2 and a corresponding rise in the effects of global warming and climate change.”
“This study is highly valuable as it shines a bright spotlight on just how important water is for the uptake of carbon by the biosphere,” says Chris Schwalm, an associate scientist at Woods Hole Research Center and an expert in global environmental change, carbon cycle sensitivity and modeling frameworks.
Schwalm, who was not involved in the study, said the study “also exposes underdeveloped aspects of Earth system modeling such as processes related to vegetation water-stress and soil moisture, which can be targeted during model development for better predictive capacity in the context of global environmental change.”
Warning for World’s Groundwater Reserves
A team of international collaborators have for the first time provided an insight into what will happen if climate change affects the replenishment of global groundwater system reserves.
In a new paper published in the journal Nature Climate Change, the research team shows that in more than half of the world’s groundwater systems, it could take more than 100 years for groundwater systems to completely respond to current environmental change.
Groundwater, found underground in the cracks and pore spaces in soil, sand and rock, is the largest source of usable freshwater in the world, and is relied on by more than two billion people as a source of drinking and irrigation water.
Groundwater resources are replenished predominantly through rainfall in a process known as recharge. At the same time, water exits or discharges from groundwater resources into lakes, streams and oceans to maintain an overall balance.
If there is a change in recharge, for example due to a reduction in rainfall as a result of climate change, the levels of water in the ground will begin to change until a new balance is achieved.
However, questions still remain about how groundwater will be specifically impacted by future climate change, and where and when any changes will take place.
“Our research shows that groundwater systems take a lot longer to respond to climate change than surface water, with only half of the world’s groundwater flows responding fully within ‘human’ timescales of 100 years,” said Mark Cuthbert, lead author of the research.
Cuthbert, who is with Cardiff University’s School of Earth and Ocean Sciences and Water Research Institute in the UK, said a slow response by systems would indicate that in many parts of the world, changes in groundwater flows due to climate change could have a very long legacy.
“This could be described as an environmental time bomb because any climate change impacts on recharge occurring now, will only fully impact the baseflow to rivers and wetlands a long time later,” he said.
The study shows that recognizing the potential for these initially hidden impacts is essential when developing water management policies, or climate change adaptation strategies for future generations.
In their study, the researchers used groundwater model results in combination with hydrologic datasets to determine the dynamic timescales under which groundwater systems respond to climate change.
They discovered that, in general, groundwater in wetter, more humid locations may respond to climate change on much shorter timescales, whereas more arid locations where water is scarcer naturally have much longer groundwater response times.
Pinpointing of locations is significant. For many parts of the world, especially where surface water supplies are less available, the domestic, agricultural, and industrial water needs can only be met by using the water beneath the ground.
Attis Acquires NY Ethanol Plant with Eye on Wood-Based Cellulosic
A Georgia-based technology holding company has bought a corn ethanol plant in New York state with plans to a convert it into a cellulosic ethanol facility that will use forest debris as a feedstock.
Attis Industries Inc. purchased the 85-million-gallon ethanol plant near Fulton, NY, from the oil major, Sunoco LP, for $20 million in cash, a sale that is expected to reach regulatory clearance by the end of the quarter.
The company has interests in the healthcare, medical waste and environmental technology fields, and is making its first foray into the biorefinery business. Attis says it will have a 10-year offtake agreement with Sunoco for the ethanol produced.
The company says the 90-acre facility will become the essential element of the company’s expanding technology portfolio. Attis says it will invest some $100 million in improvements to be made at the site over the next 24 months to create what the company says will be the first of its kind, major renewable energy campus.
Attis says its management team has a long-standing relationship with Sunoco and the operational team in place at the Fulton ethanol facility. The offtake agreement, the company says, will create “valuable stability for Attis as it plans its capital improvement strategy for the facility.”
Attis acquired the plant within a week of announcing an agreement to collaborate with Novozymes A/S, which will supply the enzymes required by the holding company to convert its pulp at all of its planned biorefineries. Novozymes has a broad portfolio of biotechnology to support commercial cellulosic biofuels production, and the ability to ramp up production as needed in an effort to support what Attis calls its “ambitious growth plans.”
The acquisition of the plant “is a significant step in Attis establishing a foothold in the renewable fuel space, while accessing the fourth largest gasoline market in the United States,” said company CEO Jeff Cosman. “Attis’ familiarity with the facility, as well as the progressive business environment in the state of New York, provide us with a unique opportunity to transform an asset with incredible potential into an innovative campus for bio-based fuel that is consistent with our short and long-term growth strategy.”
Attis concedes the struggles the biofuel sector has had in achieving some modicum of success in producing cellulosic ethanol. The Renewable Fuel Standard reauthorized by Congress in 2007 called for 100 million gallons of cellulosic ethanol to be blended into the national fuel supply in 2010, followed by 500 million in 2012, one billion gallons in 2013, 5.5 billion gallons by 2017, then up to 16 billion gallons in 2022. However, only 10 million gallons were produced in 2017.
However, Chris Kennedy, vice president for Attis Innovations, told the Albany Times Union that the firm “absolutely” wants to start cellulosic ethanol production at the rebuilt Fulton refinery, noting that Attis has “a number of proprietary technologies that focus on converting forest waste and other woody biomass into cellulosic fuels and other bioproducts like carbon fiber and plastics.”
He also told the newspaper that New York State has more than 18 million acres of forest lands “that produce a wealth of sustainable feedstocks for Attis’ planned non-corn biofuel production. State forest lands can produce 40 to 60 million tons of ‘new-growth’ biomass annually and Attis needs less than 0.3 percent of this regenerating supply to supply one of its biorefineries.”