The Barbados-based Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF) on Tuesday said it may become difficult over the next three months to confidently forecast rainfall as the Caribbean transitions into the wet season.
In its latest Caribbean Climate Outlook Newsletter, CariCOF said that the Pacific may transition into El Niño conditions while ocean temperatures around the Caribbean are expected to increase to above-average.
El Niño is widely used to describe the warming of sea surface temperature that occurs every few years. It has a major influence on climate patterns in various parts of the world.
“This makes it difficult to confidently forecast rainfall as the Caribbean transitions into the wet season. Nevertheless, long-term drought concerns are rising in Cuba, while the effects of frequent dry spells across the Islands and Belize will likely continue through May or June, with a peak in wild fire potential and Saharan dust intrusions,” CariCOF warned.
It said that recurring heatwaves are possible in the Islands, but unlikely in the Leeward Islands.
“By contrast, the potential for flooding, flash floods and cascading hazards will be moderate. Finally, tropical cyclones may develop as early as May.”
CariCOF said that during the first three months of the year, the Pacific transitioned out of a long-lasting La Niña event.
“This part of the dry season was more intense than usual in Hispaniola and parts of the Lesser Antilles, resulting in wildfire weather by February or March, depending on the location. With the Caribbean cool season lasting through March, there was little heat discomfort.”
It said long-term drought is evolving across Cuba, in northwest Puerto Rico, and St Vincent and might possibly develop or at the end of May this year continue in Barbados, northwest Belize, southern Dominican Republic, Grenada, and southeast Puerto Rico
Short-term drought might possibly develop in western Belize and southern French Guiana by the end of July, CariCOF added.