Since the beginning of recorded human history, children have outnumbered older people. Very soon this will change.
For the first time in history, people age 65 and over will outnumber children under age 5. This trend is emerging around the globe. Some nations experienced more than a doubling of average life expectancy during the 20th century.
The elderly population explosion is a result of impressive increases in life expectancy.
Life Expectancy 1776 = 35 years
Life Expectancy 2000 = 77 years
Life expectancy at birth in Japan now approaches 82 years, the highest level among the world’s more developed countries, and life expectancy is at least 79 years in several other more developed countries.
An important feature of population aging is the progressive aging of the older population itself.
Over time, more older people survive to even more advanced ages. The number of centenarians will grow significantly for the first time in history..
In the next 10 to 15 years, the loss of health and life in every region of the world, including Africa, will be greater from non-communicable or chronic diseases, such as heart disease, cancer, and diabetes, than from infectious and parasitic diseases. This represents a shift in disease epidemiology that has become the focus of increasing attention in light of global aging. Because of chronic disease, the oldest of the old have the highest population of disability that requires long-term care.
The growth of the oldest old population has a number of implications:
Pensions and retirement income will need to cover a much longer period of life. Health care costs will rise even if disability rates decline somewhat. Intergenerational relationships will take on an added dimension as the number of grandparents and great-grandparents increase and remain alive for long periods.
As people live longer and have fewer children, family structures are transformed. This has important implications in terms of providing care to older people. In our country that has a very low birth rate, future generations will have few if any siblings. As a result of this local and global trend toward having fewer children, people will have less familial care and support as they age.
The number of people 65 years old + is expected to rise by 101% by 2030. However, the number of family members who are available to provide care for these older adults is expected to increase by only 25%.
The window of opportunity for social and economic reform is closing fast as the pace of population aging accelerates. For example, while Europe currently has four people of working age for every elderly person, it will have only two workers per elderly person by 2050. There are only a few years to intensify efforts before demographic effects come to bear.
By the year 2025, all survivors of the Baby Boom generation will be between the ages of 61 and 79.
That will have a dramatic impact on the growth of the elderly population. By 2025, Florida (with 26 %) would remain the leading State with more than a quarter of its population classified as elderly. Between 1995 and 2025 the number of elderly are projected to double in 21 States. Between 1990 and 2020, the population aged 65 to 75 is projected to grow 74 % percent. People 65+ represented 12.4% of the population in year 2000… but that percentage will grow to 19% of the population by 2030.
By 2030, there will be about 72.1 million 65+ older persons… more than twice their number in 2000.
1 in 5 people will be 65+
1 in 20 people will be 85+
People 65= 34,120,000
People 85= 6,123,000
People 65= 47,363,000
People 85= 7,269,000
People 65= 61,850,000
People 85= 9,603,000
People 65= 65,844,000
People 85= 20,861,000
By the year 2070 there will be
21,665,000 = 65+
18,354,000 = 75+
10,408,000 = 85+
3,686,000 = 95+
There will be 2,376,000 people alive who will be over 100 years old.
States will face significant shortfalls in the long-term care workforce, particularly among paraprofessionals delivering home and community based services to the elderly. The National Governors Association Center for Best Practices 2004 report, Measuring the Years: State Aging Trends and Indicators:
“highlights workforce needs in healthcare arising from demographic shifts and the need to prevent and control rising levels of chronic disease.”