The risk factor in scientific progress is now so incredibly high that mankind may not live out the 21st century, argues the astronomer royal Martin Rees
I think the odds are no better than 50-50 that our present civilisation on Earth will survive to the end of the century. Our choices and actions could ensure the perpetual future of life. Or, through malign intent or misadventure, 21st-century technology could jeopardise life’s potential.
What happens on Earth in this century could conceivably make the difference between a near eternity filled with ever more complex and subtle forms of life and one filled with nothing but base matter.
Throughout human history the worst disasters have been inflicted by environmental forces — floods, earthquakes, volcanoes and hurricanes — and by pestilence. And indeed, we still live under the threat of disasters.
A ten-kilometre asteroid, harbinger of worldwide catastrophe, is expected to hit Earth once every 50-100m years. We do not know whether a large dangerous asteroid with our name on it is destined to hit in the coming century. The risk